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Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupts

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on April 15, 2010

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland erupted Wednesday, sending a towering cloud of volcanic ash 6 - 11 km (20,000 - 36,000') high in the air from its 1666 meter (5500') high peak. The ash cloud has caused a dramatic interruption of air traffic over much of northern Europe today, and this disruption will spread southwards and eastwards over the next day as the ash cloud gradually spreads and disperses (Figure 2.)


Figure 1. Ash plume from Eyjafjallajokull Volcano over the North Atlantic at 11:35 UTC April 15, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Forecast extent of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland at 12 UTC (8 am EDT) and 00 UTC tonight (8 pm EDT.) The red colors show the extent between the surface and 20,000', the green colors between 20,000 - 35,000', and the blue line between 35,000 - 55,000'. Commercial jetliners typically cruise at 35,000'. Image credit: UKMET Office.

Iceland volcano not likely to significantly affect the climate or weather
Volcanic eruptions are capable of significantly cooling the climate for 1 - 2 years after a major eruption spews sulfur dioxide gas forcefully enough so that it reaches the stratosphere. Once in the stratosphere, the gas reacts to form highly reflective sulfuric acid droplets mixed with water (sulfate aerosol particles). Our volcanoes and climate page covers the topic in more detail. Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling. The Mt. Pinatubo and El Chichon eruptions caused a greater than 10% drop in sunlight reaching the surface. The eruption of Tambora in 1815 had an even greater impact, triggering the famed Year Without a Summer in 1816. You'll notice from the list of eruptions above that all of these climate-cooling events were from volcanoes in the tropics. Above the tropics, the stratosphere's circulation features rising air, which pulls the sulfur-containing volcanic aerosols high into the stratosphere. Upper-level winds in the stratosphere tend to flow from the Equator to the poles, so sulfur aerosols from equatorial eruptions get spread out over both hemispheres. These aerosol particles take a year or two to settle back down to earth, since there is no rain in the stratosphere to help remove them. However, if a major volcanic eruption occurs in the mid-latitudes or polar regions, the circulation of the stratosphere in those regions generally features pole-ward-flowing, sinking air, and the volcanic aerosol particles are not able to penetrate high in the stratosphere or get spread out around the entire globe.

There have been at least two exceptions to the tropics-only rule. Realclimate.org discusses the eruption of the Laki volcano in Iceland, between 1783-1784. The eruption was probably not able to inject much sulfur into the stratosphere. However, since the eruption was sustained for so long, significantly elevated sulfur concentrations were seen in the lower atmosphere over much of the Atlantic and European regions, which had a pronounced cooling effect on the region.

scienceblog.com has an interesting article about the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century--the 1912 eruption of Alaska's Mt. Novarupta, located in the same chain of volcanoes as Mt. Redoubt. According to a NASA computer model, Novarupta's climate-cooling aerosols stayed north of 30°N latitude, and did not cause global cooling. However, the model indicates that the eruption may have indirectly weakened India's summer monsoon, producing an abnormally warm and dry summer over northern India.

It does not appear that the current eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano on Iceland was large enough to alter the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere and cause a change in the late spring/early summer weather patterns. A series of several major eruptions over the next few weeks would be required for that to happen. The volcano is also too far north for the cooling effect of its ash cloud to affect the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the coming hurricane season. However, the ash could should bring spectacular sunsets to Europe over the next week, and to North America by sometime next week, as the jet stream wraps the ash cloud eastwards across the Northern Hemisphere.

Portlight aid ship nears Haiti
Portlight.org continues to work hard to get food and medical supplies into the earthquake zone in Haiti. Their latest effort is a shipment of 30,000 pounds of rice and 20,000 pounds of other supplies, mostly medical equipment, that has been loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew. The schooner is expected to land in Haiti today to deliver the supplies. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. Relief supplies for Haiti earthquake victims being loaded onto the schooner Halie and Mathew.

Paul Timmons (Presslord) and Pat Pearson (Patrap) of Portlight will on the Internet radio show, the Daily Downpour Link. The hosts are wunderground meteorologists Shaun Tanner and Tim Roche. The show airs today, Thursday, April 15, at 4pm Eastern.

Jeff Masters

Volcano

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So even if the eruption was stronger, it would have been too far north to affect the Atlantic. Interesting.

Thanks for the update
From the previous blog:

Quoting AussieStorm:
Did anyone here feel this?

Earthquake Details

Magnitude
3.2
Date-Time
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 13:22:38 UTC
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 08:22:38 AM at epicenter
Location
34.789°N, 96.388°W
Depth
10.3 km (6.4 miles) (poorly constrained)

Region
OKLAHOMA
Distances
10 km (6 miles) SSE (168°) from Allen, OK
10 km (6 miles) WSW (240°) from Gerty, OK
19 km (12 miles) SSW (194°) from Atwood, OK
26 km (16 miles) E (84°) from Ada, OK
130 km (81 miles) SE (126°) from Oklahoma City, OK
224 km (139 miles) N (9°) from Dallas, TX


Aussie, that quake is probably due to oil/natural gas drilling. The quake was probably weakly felt in a nearby area.
Oil and Gas drilling causes Earthquakes?

Must be a DEEP hole..




Can drilling for oil cause earthquakes?

In: Earthquakes [Edit categories]

[Improve]
While disagreement abounds on this topic, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) say that oil production can cause earthquakes, but not the kind reported in the news.

According to the Rigorous Intuition, some earthquakes, such as the 2004 quake that triggered a deadly tsunami in Sumatra, occur at plate boundaries where hard, rocky slabs slide against each other to release tremendous amounts of energy. Oil generally is found in permeable sediments that are soft and squishy, not in hard rock. When this squishy land moves, it releases a small amount of energy, which can lead to a "mini-seismic event"-one that is barely detected on the Richter scale.

Here's how it works: With high-tech equipment, oil companies pinpoint oil-rich areas and use large drills to puncture the surface below the sea, sometimes as deep as 10,000 feet. As this pricey fluid gets sucked from the sediment pores, the surrounding rocks shift positions to fill in the newly vacated spaces. At a large scale, for example the volume displaced when millions of barrels of oil are produced, the land movement can actually cause a mini-seismic earthquake, according to Robert Morton, a USGS coastal geologist.
Hey everyone!
Thanks Doc... a very interesting event, I'm glad you covered it so we can discuss it without some members going postal.
Thx for the update....
I think the US news services are avoiding this subject because they can't pronounce ' Eyjafjallajokull'. I heard the BBC's anchor take a quick stab at it. Is there a pronunciation key?
Quoting indianrivguy:
Thanks Doc... a very interesting event, I'm glad you covered it so we can discuss it without some members going postal.

I have many relatives in the UK and I have asked of they have had any affects there, as in sky colour.
Thanks Dr. Masters. At least I don't have to check with Mrs. Grothar to see if I was right. We agree on the volcano completely. LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Oil and Gas drilling causes Earthquakes?

Must be a DEEP hole..




Can drilling for oil cause earthquakes?

In: Earthquakes [Edit categories]

[Improve]
While disagreement abounds on this topic, scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) say that oil production can cause earthquakes, but not the kind reported in the news.

According to the Rigorous Intuition, some earthquakes, such as the 2004 quake that triggered a deadly tsunami in Sumatra, occur at plate boundaries where hard, rocky slabs slide against each other to release tremendous amounts of energy. Oil generally is found in permeable sediments that are soft and squishy, not in hard rock. When this squishy land moves, it releases a small amount of energy, which can lead to a "mini-seismic event"-one that is barely detected on the Richter scale.

Here's how it works: With high-tech equipment, oil companies pinpoint oil-rich areas and use large drills to puncture the surface below the sea, sometimes as deep as 10,000 feet. As this pricey fluid gets sucked from the sediment pores, the surrounding rocks shift positions to fill in the newly vacated spaces. At a large scale, for example the volume displaced when millions of barrels of oil are produced, the land movement can actually cause a mini-seismic earthquake, according to Robert Morton, a USGS coastal geologist.

Thanks Patrap. Can you post a satellite map of the GOM.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have many relatives in the UK and I have asked of they have had any affects there, as in sky colour.


It should come right over me in the next few days
GOM IR Loop




ESL by LSU
Quoting biff4ugo:
I think the US news services are avoiding this subject because they can't pronounce ' Eyjafjallaj�kull'. I heard the BBC's anchor take a quick stab at it. Is there a pronunciation key?


I mentioned on the blog last night how to pronounce it. It is roughly pronounced AYU fee yapla yerkull. The pronunciation is nothing like the way it is spelled. I have been there and that is how the locals refer to it, but with a little lilt at the end.
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop




ESL by LSU

The ULL in the GOM looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Also wind shear is tearing it up pretty good also!
i wounder if any one in UK are seeing ash falls at this time
Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop




ESL by LSU

Whats that in the middle of the GOMEX?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i wounder if any one in UK are seeing ash falls at this time


Reply from my cousin in Cumnock Scotland.
Hi cuz, not seen any ash as its high up they say,only search an rescue to fly and only up to 5000 ft. sky's closed till 6am Friday at earliest
Conditions at Buoy
Station 42056 (LLNR 110) - Yucatan Basin 42056 as of
(8:50 am CDT)
1350 GMT on 04/15/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 86 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.05 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.4 °F
Thank you Dr.; guess that resolves this morning's debate on the issue as to the possible effect on the MDR from this one....Wishful thinking I suppose....
The northern edge of Iceland is on the ArcticCircle. So I find myself wondering how much of that ash and aerosols are going to drop on the polar icecap?
And whether extra absorbtion of sunlight by the surface will cause greater melting over this summer and the next?
Or will the extra reflectivity while the pollutants remain in the air cause sufficient cooling to increase the ice pack enough that this summer's sea ice extent minimum will be above the post2000 average?
Finally book a trip to Europe, and flights shut down. Man.

www.princessdlyn.blogspot.com
Gulf of Mexico Offshore Waters Forecast


OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010


$$
GMZ084-151530-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...S OF 28N E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10
FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 12 FT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. N OF 28N E TO
SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S OF 26N E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO
15 TO 20 KT FRI NIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 TO 9 FT
FRI NIGHT. N OF 26N E TO SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10
TO 15 KT FRI NIGHT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.SAT...N OF 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. FROM
25N TO 28N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 25N
NE TO E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT S OF 25N AND 2 TO 4
FT N OF 25N.
.MON...N TO NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Reply from my cousin in Cumnock Scotland.
Hi cuz, not seen any ash as its high up they say,only search an rescue to fly and only up to 5000 ft. sky's closed till 6am Friday at earliest


ok
I dunno what is goin on on the webcam lolz

Link
Quoting aspectre:
The northern edge of Iceland is on the ArcticCircle.
So I find myself wondering how much of that ash and aerosols are going to drop on the polar icecap? And whether extra absorbtion of sunlight by the surface will cause greater melting over this summer and the next?
Or will the extra reflectivity while the pollutants remain in the air cause sufficient cooling to increase the ice pack enough that this summer's sea ice extent minimum will be above the post2000 average?
Volcanic emissions usually act to increase albedo.
I'm still waiting for my cookie, Groth....
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Eyjafjallaj%C3%B6kull.ogg
Quoting Bordonaro:

The ULL in the GOM looks a bit weaker than yesterday. Also wind shear is tearing it up pretty good also!


Another disturbance moving from S TX is about to move in and reenergize this are in the C GOM over the weekend. This will likely be a major rain maker somewhere over the Florida Penisula.
1st time poster long time lurker, if the MDR. is like june already, and it's only April, would the MDR. be like august come June?
Quoting Grothar:
Thanks Dr. Masters. At least I don't have to check with Mrs. Grothar to see if I was right. We agree on the volcano completely. LOL


Grothar.. I saw your translations from last night.. how the hell do you tell if a word is misspelled??? : )

Aussie, I hope you are feeling better today mate!
I'm sorry, i forgot my manners. Goodmorning everyone.
From the Weather Channel

Fire in the Sky! Meteor Streaks across the Midwest
by Tim Ballisty , on Apr 15, 2010 9:13 am ET
For those of you in parts of the Midwest and happened to be outside Wednesday night, a fiery display played out before your eyes.

It was just after 10pm CT when a blazing meteor was seen soaring, streaking through the Midwest sky.
Per the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities, the meteor was in the northern sky streaking west to east.

There are numerous local news reports this morning from various Midwest states. The meteor lit up the skies across northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and southern Wisconsin.
Meteor caught on tape by a webcam at the University of Wisconsin in Madison

In fact not only was the fiery meteor seen but also heard and felt!

The Quad Cities NWS received several reports of a prolonged sonic boon while other reported the shaking of homes, trees, etc.

As it was burning in the Earth's atmosphere, the meteor broke into several smaller pieces. The NWS says that it unknown whether any portion of the meteor actually hit the ground.

With cameras everywhere these days, the meteor was caught on tape by several outlets include police patrol car dashboards and university webcams.
High Pressure will dominate Fla.and the GOM thru Sunday..but notice the L's in Mexico as that seasons East Pac closes in on a beginning.

Image LInk HPC 3-Day Surf Prog
Cool jeff anyways where do you think the rain will fall in florida panhandle, our area central florida or south florida or all the abouve.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Grothar.. I saw your translations from last night.. how the hell do you tell if a word is misspelled??? : )

Aussie, I hope you are feeling better today mate!

I am not feeling any better today, I was at physio today and diagnosis is not great, strained back muscles in the area of my ribs to my spine on my right side. It hurts to do anything, even to breath.
Thanks for you continued concern.
Thats not good aussiestorm hope you get better soon.
Quoting soclueless:
I'm sorry, i forgot my manners. Goodmorning everyone.

Good very early morning to you.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cool jeff anyways where do you think the rain will fall in florida panhandle, our area central florida or south florida or all the abouve.


I'm thinking C and S FL. I don't see any rain for the Florida Panhandle for about 8 days or so but you never know. I expect a low (non tropical) to form over the central gulf and trek E NE toward the penisula Sunday.
Thanks Grothar for the pronunciation key.(#16)

I am wondering the same thing as Spectre. (#23)
It looks like the immediate ash will blow over ice in Scandinavia and the Baltic. Sea Ice there looked above average monthly levels when last I looked. We will need to find out how much ash is actually falling out of the plume and possibly what size. Does the Ice Center blog about such events?
Quoting indianrivguy:


Grothar.. I saw your translations from last night.. how the hell do you tell if a word is misspelled??? : )

Aussie, I hope you are feeling better today mate!


They ask the same about English, e.g.

hiccough - pronounced hiccup
rough - ruff
through - throo
though - tho
tough - tuff
bough - bow
bought -bought

English is by far the most difficult language to learn, speak and spell.
Quoting soclueless:
1st time poster long time lurker, if the MDR. is like june already, and it's only April, would the MDR. be like august come June?


Welcome.....Several factors to consider, and others on here more qualified than me to address them all, but the main thrust of the issue is what the water temps will be in the MDR between Africa and the Caribbean during the heart of the season and the current anomoly of the warmest March temps in recent history....I suppose there is a "cap" as to hot the waters can get but the generally accepted threshold for this particular factor and cyclogenisis is abound 80 degrees.....Point is, June may not be any hotter than the ultimate temps in August; the issue is when the overall temps will reach the 80 degree mark during hurricane season/summer months, and then, start to cool down again in September and October........
goodmorning aussie, hope your back get's better
Quoting Grothar:


They ask the same about English, e.g.

hiccough - pronounced hiccup
rough - ruff
through - throo
though - tho
tough - tuff
bough - bow
bought -bought

English is by far the most difficult language to learn, speak and spell.


HAVE A NICE DAY!!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Cool jeff anyways where do you think the rain will fall in florida panhandle, our area central florida or south florida or all the abouve.
None in the panhandle. Sunny, mid 70's, slight breeze for at least the next 7 days...perfect!
Thats picture perfect weather nttygrtty but you dont want rain?
Quoting CycloneUK:


SHUT UP!!

What's up? Grothar has not said or done anything wrong. He is my friend, he is intelligent, can speak and write several different languages, and shares good things on the blog.
Could this poassibly have a cooling effect on the Globe?
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thats picture perfect weather nttygrtty but you dont want rain?
It's gulf coast Florida, it'll rain whether I want it to or not. Just a matter of when. For now, no, I don't want rain...interferes with boating and golfing
Quoting Snowlover123:
Could this poassibly have a cooling effect on the Globe?

Highly unlikely at the moment. This eruption so far has been very small. IF the eruption of she/aerosols continue for a few week/months, then things may be different.
from icelandreview.com

15/04/2010 | 14:48

A Joke Making the Rounds in Iceland Today

Britain: Iceland are you crazy?!? Why did you send us volcanic ash ? Our airspace has shut down.

Iceland: What ? That's what you asked for isn't it ?

Britain: NO! We said cash! Cash you dyslexic idiot. CASH!

Iceland: Woooops...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

To the British and Dutch Governments: There is no C in the Icelandic alphabet, so when you ask for Cash, all you get is ...

Quoting Bordonaro:

What's up? Grothar has not said or done anything wrong. He is my friend, he is intelligent, can speak and write several different languages, and shares good things on the blog.


All I can see is pleasantness...
Great, it's going to rain hard in SW TX, where the Prairie grasses, the cactus and the tumbleweeds roam:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TO W-CENTRAL TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 151435Z - 151730Z

POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR EPISODIC RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR
BEGINNING S OF I-10 AND SW OF I-37...THEN SPREADING NWD OVER SRN/WRN
HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU WITH TIME.

MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER LOW MOVING NWD ACROSS
RIO GRANDE INVOF DRT...CORROBORATED WITH SIMILARLY MOVING VORTEX
EVIDENT IN REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER SRN VAL VERDE COUNTY AS OF 14Z.
STG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL PERSIST E THROUGH SE OF
THAT CIRCULATION...WITH SUSTAINED/30-40 KT SELY LLJ EMANATING FROM
NWRN GULF. SOURCE-LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THAT AREA
GIVEN SEVERAL COMMON MEASURES -- E.G. GPS AND SOUNDING PW AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES...SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S F...MEAN MIXING RATIO
12-14 G/KG...AND ANALYZED 925-850 MB DEW POINTS AROUND 15 AND 12 DEG
C RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS IS NEARLY SATURATED THROUGH DEEP
LAYER...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS
MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST PERIODIC
HEAVY RAIN RATES ABOVE 1 INCH/HOUR GIVEN PRESENCE OF PROLONGED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND MODIFIED RAOBS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE LIKELIHOOD OF MIXTURE OF EFFICIENT
WARM-CLOUD PROCESSES AND DEEP TSTMS. IN ADDITION...MERGERS OF
CONVECTION ALONG NERN PERIPHERY OF PRIMARY/INITIAL RAIN AREA WILL
ENHANCE RATES LOCALLY. DIABATIC HEATING OF INFLOW LAYER WILL BE
GRADUAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER...BUT WHEN COMBINED WITH THETAE
ADVECTION...SHOULD OFFSET WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INCREASE MLCAPE
ABOVE 500 J/KG OVER SRN HILL COUNTRY AND RAISE BUOYANT LAYER TO NEAR
TROPOPAUSE...IN SUPPORT OF DEEP PRECIP GENERATION IN AREA OF
SUSTAINED/DEEP ASCENT. ELEVATED WAA CONVEYOR ALSO WILL SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED HEAVY RATES WITHIN BROADER/LONG-LASTING PRECIP SHIELD
NWWD AS FAR AS ERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SRN CAPROCK AREAS OF W TX.

..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2010
Quoting CycloneUK:


HAVE A NICE DAY!!


You have a nice day, too. Cyclone. It is always nice to correspond with someone from the United Kingdom. Most of you have such a good command of the language that it is normally a pleasure to correspond. Hope you are not too affected by the ash cloud. Heard your airports were being closed for a while.
Quoting Grothar:


They ask the same about English, e.g.

hiccough - pronounced hiccup
rough - ruff
through - throo
though - tho
tough - tuff
bough - bow
bought -bought

English is by far the most difficult language to learn, speak and spell.


hahaha, I sit corrected.. well done!
Well i gotta go, pain is getting to much need to take another pill. and I'm off to bed.
Stay safe all.
Quoting Grothar:


You have a nice day, too. Cyclone. It is always nice to correspond with someone from the United Kingdom. Most of you have such a good command of the language that it is normally a pleasure to correspond. Hope you are not too affected by the ash cloud. Heard your airports were being closed for a while.


Ash actually makes a refreshing change from the rain,wind,sleet and drizzle lol.


Fireball Wednesday Night 4/14

Just after 10 pm CDT Wednesday evening April 14th, a fireball or very bright meteor was observed streaking across the sky. The fireball was seen over the northern sky, moving from west to east. Well before it reached the horizon, it broke up into smaller pieces and was lost from sight. The fireball was seen across Northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Southern Wisconsin. Several reports of a prolonged sonic boom were received from areas north of Highway 20, along with shaking of homes, trees and various other objects including wind chimes. As of late Wednesday evening, it is unknown whether any portion of this meteorite hit the ground.
Bordonaro that stuff down in south central texas is coming closer and you will get rain and possibly heavy rain today but flooding is a concern.
Hey tornadodude cool time lapse of the apparent meteor in the plains yesterday! how it going in purdue?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Welcome.....Several factors to consider, and others on here more qualified than me to address them all, but the main thrust of the issue is what the water temps will be in the MDR between Africa and the Caribbean during the heart of the season and the current anomoly of the warmest March temps in recent history....I suppose there is a "cap" as to hot the waters can get but the generally accepted threshold for this particular factor and cyclogenisis is abound 80 degrees.....Point is, June may not be any hotter than the ultimate temps in August; the issue is when the overall temps will reach the 80 degree mark during hurricane season/summer months, and then, start to cool down again in September and October........
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey tornadodude cool time lapse of the apparent meteor in the plains how it going in purdue.



its not a time lapse, but yeah it was cool, and it's going, how bout you?
A random thought in the hurricane preparedness category: if you know anyone doing NutriSystem, a 30 day box of NutriSystem food makes a great hurricane supply. All of it can be eaten straight out of the container although a few require water. 30 breakfast, 30 lunch and 30 dinner meals plus 30 snacks and the shelf life is like 5 years. Sodium's kinda high if you're concerned about that but otherwise an easy way to be stocked up all the time.
sorry weathermanwannabe, thank you for your reply hit the wrong button lol, hence my handle
Quoting soclueless:
1st time poster long time lurker, if the MDR. is like june already, and it's only April, would the MDR. be like august come June?


One would think but, cooling can take place between now and then to offset the positive anomalies were seeing today. If no cooling takes place and things continue as they're going now then yes, it will continue to heat. To where would depend on how much heating takes place, trade winds ect...
Oh thats right it was a camera Its going good tornadodude.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Bordonaro that stuff down in south central texas is coming closer and you will get rain and possibly heavy rain today but flooding is a concern.


SW TX will see the heaviest rain, because that is where the "best lift" is in the atmosphere. SW TX rises in elevation, from about 600' to about 1500-2000'. The SE flow off the GOM into that area of TX is rather unusual, that area receives about 15-20" of rain a year. Their main concern will be flash flooding if they receive heavy rain.

Now the whole system needs to move towards Central TX, so we can get some rain. We can handle 1-2" or rain without a major problem here!
Quoting indianrivguy:


hahaha, I sit corrected.. well done!


Good one! I'll just "stand" this one out.
Cooling would come in the form of cloudiness and higher than normal trade winds. Neither of which were seeing at the moment but, that can change.
Quoting soclueless:
sorry weathermanwannabe, thank you for your reply hit the wrong button lol, hence my handle


Cool....It's going to be a very interesting season............. :)
Quoting tornadodude:


Fireball Wednesday Night 4/14

Just after 10 pm CDT Wednesday evening April 14th, a fireball or very bright meteor was observed streaking across the sky. The fireball was seen over the northern sky, moving from west to east. Well before it reached the horizon, it broke up into smaller pieces and was lost from sight. The fireball was seen across Northern Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Southern Wisconsin. Several reports of a prolonged sonic boom were received from areas north of Highway 20, along with shaking of homes, trees and various other objects including wind chimes. As of late Wednesday evening, it is unknown whether any portion of this meteorite hit the ground.

We all know TDude that you were having a "Surge" flashback, isn't that what caused the "bright lights"? Just kidding!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

We all know TDude that you were having a "Surge" flashback, isn't that what caused the "bright lights"? Just kidding!!


hahaha oh yeah ;)
The new Japanese April forecasts are out. Their forecast is very similar to last month's, continuing to forecast very warm SSTs in the MDR and Caribbean during the hurricane season, with near-normal SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico. Their precipitation forecast continues to call for very wet anomalies across the MDR and especially the Caribbean, very similar to the EUROSIP, as well as a wet western Sahel. The Japanese ENSO forecast continues to be very bullish, pushing us into a strong La Nina by July, which I think is overdone. The ensemble members look to be initializing a little too cold as well.

Another very interesting tidbit is that with this new forecast, the Japanese model now looks fully committed to a hot summer for the CONUS. This is very much opposed to the CFS, which is forecasting pretty much a year without a summer for most of the central US. I'm definitely more in agreement with the Japanese and European models on this issue which forecast a hot summer.

SSTs for the JJA period:



Precipitation Anomalies for the JJA period:



ENSO forecast:



Surface Temperature Anomaly forecast for the JJA period:


I saw the volcano's name and thought "It's easy for you to say that...!" Some impressive pix of the eruption, and various stabs at the name, at http://scienceblogs.com/eruptions/2010/03/the_2010_fissure_eruption_at_e.php
I don't often post in this blog, unless some weather extreme, or the like, affects the UK.
Just heard on the news that all flights, both in and out of the country are suspended until 7am tomorrow, when the situation will be re-assessed.
Denmark, Norway and Finland have cancelled all flights until at least 4pm tomorrow.
There is chaos at the airports, and anyone due back in are being diverted to southern Europe to land!

Quoting Bordonaro:

We all know TDude that you were having a "Surge" flashback, isn't that what caused the "bright lights"? Just kidding!!


No more for you TD. How many you got left?
Quoting tornadodude:


hahaha oh yeah ;)

All you wonderful people in the Midwest, Upper Midwest, even into Southern Canada have "borrowed" our Spring Severe Weather, rain and snow.

I remember "Toontown" in Saskatchewan, Canada had a nice snowstorm last week, with our Gulf moisture, how dare he do that to us.
Okay bordonaro i should have rephrased it there could be local flooding in the area. but you are going to get something out of this and thats the good thing.
Quoting Grothar:


No more for you TD. How many you got left?


I have 6 left (:

Quoting Bordonaro:

All you wonderful people in the Midwest, Upper Midwest, even into Southern Canada have "borrowed" our Spring Severe Weather, rain and snow.

I remember "Toontown" in Saskatchewan, Canada had a nice snowstorm last week, with our Gulf moisture, how dare he do that to us.


haha well we havent had much of your gulf moisture here, its dry as a bone!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Okay bordonaro i should have rephrased it there could be local flooding in the area. but you are going to get something out of this and thats the good thing.

You're good Alex. We need about an inch of rain, but we will see. The humidity is up, we have our normal morning low clouds off the Gulf at about 3.000' and mid-level clouds near 8,000' above them, which is a good sign.

The NWS Ft Worth, TX stated a pattern change will bring us a decent chance of rain, maybe severe weather next weekend. Oh well, we'll take it anyway we can get it, even if it's 3" of rain in one day.
Quoting Levi32:
The new Japanese April forecasts are out. Their forecast is very similar to last month's, continuing to forecast very warm SSTs in the MDR and Caribbean during the hurricane season, with near-normal SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico. Their precipitation forecast continues to call for very wet anomalies across the MDR and especially the Caribbean, very similar to the EUROSIP. The Japanese ENSO forecast continues to be very bullish, pushing us into a strong La Nina by July, which I think is overdone.

Another very interesting tidbit is that with this new forecast, the Japanese model now looks fully committed to a hot summer for the CONUS. This is very much opposed to the CFS, which is forecasting pretty much a year without a summer for most of the central US. I'm definitely more in agreement with the Japanese and European models on this issue which forecast a hot summer.

SSTs for the JJA period:



Precipitation Anomalies for the JJA period:



ENSO forecast:



Surface Temperature Anomaly forecast for the JJA period:





I agree with the hot summer. It's reaching into the 80's now in my hometown of South Bend, Indiana.

Reverewood, Mishawaka, Indiana (PWS)
Updated: 12 sec ago
Clear
78.4 °F
Clear

I lived there for 24 years and typically when we reached the 80's in April a long hot summer was to follow. Another note, last summer was very cold for the area, with few days in the 80's. In my 24 years in South Bend, there were never back to back cold summers. Not saying that it can't happen, just observation.
Quoting tornadodude:


I have 6 left (:



haha well we havent had much of your gulf moisture here, its dry as a bone!

Yes, but last week, you all "hijacked" our severe thunderstorm outbreak, the night of the NCAA final game, remember. And the day before that too. Well, the weather patterns are supposed to change, oh, next weekend, 10 more days of fairly pleasant weather.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I agree with the hot summer. It's reaching into the 80's now in my hometown of South Bend, Indiana.

Reverewood, Mishawaka, Indiana (PWS)
Updated: 12 sec ago
Clear
78.4 °F
Clear

I lived there for 24 years and typically when we reached the 80's in April a long hot summer was to follow. Another note, last summer was very cold for the area, with few days in the 80's. In my 24 years in South Bend, there were never back to back cold summers. Not saying that it can't happen, just observation.


oh yeah, it's plenty warm and dry up here, it's gonna be a long hot summer if this continues
Another interesting thing about the Japanese forecasts is their forecast for normal SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico despite very warm air temperature anomalies surrounding the gulf. This could be the model showing hurricanes battering away at the gulf waters and keeping them cooled down. Also, the Caribbean starts out warm with the air temperature anomalies, but the model turns them quite cold during the Sep-Oct-Nov period, despite SSTs remaining above normal. This could also be a byproduct of hurricanes and/or above-average rainfall cooling the average daily air temperatures despite warm SSTs in the area.
I was watching Channel 9 weather out of Chicago a couple days ago, talking about the 25 degree above normal temps and they are expecting a hot summer as well.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Yes, but last week, you all "hijacked" our severe thunderstorm outbreak, the night of the NCAA final game, remember.


yeah I do remember that, there were some good storms
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Cool....It's going to be a very interesting season............. :)
yes i know, and that's what is worrying me.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/TECH/04/15/midwest.fireball/

some more footage on this CNN link of the meteor :)
Quoting Grothar:


They ask the same about English, e.g.

hiccough - pronounced hiccup
rough - ruff
through - throo
though - tho
tough - tuff
bough - bow
bought -bought

English is by far the most difficult language to learn, speak and spell.


are you from iceland?? I have two icelandic horses. one named monasi which i was told means "color of the earth with a snip" (he is dun colored with a big white splash on the snip of his nose) and one named Neisti which is supposed to mean "spark" I have owned one named Trausti, one named Tivar and one named Stali. sorry for the OT but I didnt get to see if anyone answered if they think the ash will affect iceland's horses.
hey bordonaro 3 inches is a lot of rain for one day and the change is coming i just saw the forecast discussion and there talking about a big pacific storm potentially affecting the area but its a week away and you know how the models are one day they have a huge storm and the next run its a few sprinkles it aggravates me especially if i need rain it never fails.
Quoting Levi32:
Another interesting thing about the Japanese forecasts is their forecast for normal SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico despite very warm air temperature anomalies surrounding the gulf. This could be the model showing hurricanes battering away at the gulf waters and keeping them cooled down. Also, the Caribbean starts out warm with the air temperature anomalies, but the model turns them quite cold during the Sep-Oct-Nov period, but the SSTs remain above normal. This could also be a byproduct of hurricanes and/or above-average rainfall cooling the average daily air temperatures despite warm SSTs in the area.


That is possible. The GOM is a fairly shallow basin, water temps normally average 85F in July/August. The heat content is somewhat limited since the GOM is fairly shallow, a good CAT 3 or 4 pulls plenty of energy out of the GOM. Even with slightly below normal temps the GOM is as warm as a bathtub.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
hey bordonaro 3 inches is a lot of rain for one day and the change is coming i just saw the forecast discussion and there talking about a big pacific storm potentially affecting the area but its a week away and you know how the models are one day they have a huge storm and the next run its a few sprinkles it aggravates me especially if i need rain it never fails.

Oh, my friend TX weather during the spring is an animal all its own! We occasionally have 4-8"/rain in one day, sometimes more.

When you have a slow moving cold front, with training thunderstorms over the same area, it can get real ugly.
Well in san antonio we never get that amount of rain in the spring most of the time there are of course exceptions but its usually the summer down there that we got the flooding rains and when it floods in san antonio it floods!
Quoting twhcracker:


are you from iceland?? I have two icelandic horses. one named monasi which i was told means "color of the earth with a snip" (he is dun colored with a big white splash on the snip of his nose) and one named Neisti which is supposed to mean "spark" I have owned one named Trausti, one named Tivar and one named Stali. sorry for the OT but I didnt get to see if anyone answered if they think the ash will affect iceland's horses.


No, I was born on Long Island, NY but lived in the Scandinavian countries for years. stali means steel and trausti means to trust. The early reports do not seem to think the ash will have much effect on Iceland. Just the flooding will be a big problem. Other scientists believe that the ash will dissipate in a few days with little effect on the weather or the environment.
Cat 5's are extremely dangerous storms. Personally, I missed two...Andrew and Katrina...but I missed Katrina on purpose because I did not have any survival gear or survival strategies in 2005.

To this day, no one has video that has documented the landfall of a Cat 5 hurricane where the eye of the storm crosses land.

Survey Question:

Should anyone ever attempt capturing video outside in a Cat 5 storm in an area where the eye crosses land?
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah I do remember that, there were some good storms

Sure, I am glad you enjoyed our thunderstorms.

The last good thunderstorm here was on 3-24, we had lightning hit a neighbors tree, smelled that burning wood, it was a "live oak BBQ". Then the heavy rain put out the fire. That was one bad lightning show.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Cat 5's are extremely dangerous storms. Personally, I missed two...Andrew and Katrina...but I missed Katrina on purpose because I did not have any survival gear or survival strategies in 2005.

To this day, no one has video documented the landfall of a Cat 5 hurricane where the eye of the storm crosses land.

Survey Question:

Should anyone ever attempt capturing video outside in a Cat 5 storm in an area where the eye crosses land?


If you really want to sacrifice yourself for the mutual entertainment of all mankind, then sure.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Cat 5's are extremely dangerous storms. Personally, I missed two...Andrew and Katrina...but I missed Katrina on purpose because I did not have any survival gear or survival strategies in 2005.

To this day, no one has video documented the landfall of a Cat 5 hurricane where the eye of the storm crosses land.

Survey Question:

Should anyone ever attempt capturing video outside in a Cat 5 storm in an area where the eye crosses land?


I can name at least 5 people I would like to see outside in a CAT 5. And most of you thought I was nice. LOL

I am sure most of you would have someone they would like to volunteer. Come on now, be honest.
No cycloneoz you or anyone else should not go outside and expierience a cat 5 storm dont get me wrong it will be amazing video but whats the cost? your life so i say no its not worth it everyone knows that its dangerous and people that dont are living under a rock.
Quoting Grothar:


I can name at least 5 people I would like to see outside in a CAT 5. And most of you thought I was nice. LOL

I am sure most of you would have someone they would like to volunteer. Come on now, be honest.


Is one of them me?
Quoting Levi32:



If you really want to sacrifice yourself for the mutual entertainment of all mankind, then sure.



But really Oz, why would you or anyone else want to risk your life so we can see what Cat 5 winds can do....we certainly don't want to see what they could do to you! Or any other crazy person for that matter lol.
107. JRRP


Hey Levi how are you doing this afternoon!
Quoting CycloneOz:
Cat 5's are extremely dangerous storms. Personally, I missed two...Andrew and Katrina...but I missed Katrina on purpose because I did not have any survival gear or survival strategies in 2005.

To this day, no one has video documented the landfall of a Cat 5 hurricane where the eye of the storm crosses land.

Survey Question:

Should anyone ever attempt capturing video outside in a Cat 5 storm in an area where the eye crosses land?


Oz, we all know you're going to try and do this. I just want you to figure a way to do it safely. You're an extraordinary man, stubborn as a bull.
Quoting Levi32:


If you really want to sacrifice yourself for the mutual entertainment of all mankind, then sure.
Levi, borrowing your post so I don't have to go back to find the original. Per the previous discussion on this, yes, Oz, you should attempt to video document a landfalling Cat 5 IF you can reasonably mitigate the risk to an acceptable level. Who determines what's acceptable? You...and only you.
Quoting Levi32:


But really Oz, why would you want to risk your life so we can see what Cat 5 winds can do....we certainly don't want to see what they could do to you!


The answer is that if someone is going to try to do it, it might as well be me. I'm fully prepared and mentally ready.

A friend came over to my house last night as I was tinkering with my live webcam setup. We talked about Cat 5s at length and he asked me if I had any idea of what I would feel like as I waited in position for a storm that destructive to come ashore.

My response to him was "I guess I'm going to feel like an Allie soldier did in the first wave of landing craft on D-Day."

Then he said, "Yeah, and you realize that many in that first wave were killed, right?"

"Many, but not all," I responded.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Is one of them me?


No. Absolutely not. But if you wish to be in one, I would like to send a few people along with you. Just stay out of harm's way and place them in front of you.

But seriously, a CAT 5 is not a joking matter. I do not think that even the most experienced storm chaser would be that reckless to be outside when the actual eye passed over. Not a very wise thing to do.
If somehow oz manages to do this it will be the best weather video of all time!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey Levi how are you doing this afternoon!


Hey Alex, well I'm barely awake it's still 8:20am here lol.
Good afternoon Levi and all others. Hope ya'll are doiing fine. It is a Beeeautiful day here on the beaches of the MS Coast from what I can see from the hotel room window
My grandad's co worker in Trinidad said there is very torential rain occuring on the eastern side of island. He said the bare hillside are like raging rivers right now. Where's Pottery?
Quoting CycloneOz:


The answer is that if someone is going to try to do it, it might as well be me. I'm fully prepared and mentally ready.

A friend came over to my house last night as I was tinkering with my live webcam setup. We talked about Cat 5s at length and he asked me if I had any idea of what I would feel like as I waited in position for a storm that destructive to come ashore.

My response to him was "I guess I'm going to feel like an Allie soldier did in the first wave of landing craft on D-Day."

Then he said, "Yeah, and you realize that many in that first wave were killed, right?"

"Many, but not all," I responded.


Well, Bordonaro is right, you're stubborn. I'll be praying without ceasing if you ever attempt such a thing.
i think a minimal cat 5 in an area where theres not much chance of a garbage can lid conking you in the head is one thing, but 200 mph winds or even gusts.... would be hard to video, would be hard to do anything but crawl along with your rear end getting stung by needles of rain. You would not be able to stand without toppling over repeatedly. In Opal I was sitting on my porch and a big gust came along, it was dusk and it was just hitting good, and i saw a balled up towel or something tumbling down the road and realized it was my neighbors little dog. and that was only about 110-120 mph.
Dang that bad jeff but pottery probably dancing in the rain right now!
As one of those who saw the below ,,it was quite the sight as the front side came thru mostly in Darkness in 85.

I was near Pass Road in Long Beach not far from the seabee base..

One hears the backside coming and its quite the impressive sound.

Elena was a Cat-3 that blew pretty good,and was the first eye that I had been in,in 20 years..since Betsy in 65.

msgambler may remember Elena if I recall.



Quoting NttyGrtty:
Levi, borrowing your post so I don't have to go back to find the original. Per the previous discussion on this, yes, Oz, you should attempt to video document a landfalling Cat 5 IF you can reasonably mitigate the risk to an acceptable level. Who determines what's acceptable? You...and only you.


With the amount of debris to be flying through the air @ 156+ miles an hour, you'd be nuts. By the time you spotted that 2x4 hurling at you, you'd have a nice hole in your chest. No way.
Quoting twhcracker:
i think a minimal cat 5 in an area where theres not much chance of a garbage can lid conking you in the head is one thing, but 200 mph winds or even gusts.... would be hard to video, would be hard to do anything but crawl along with your rear end getting stung by needles of rain. You would not be able to stand without toppling over repeatedly. In Opal I was sitting on my porch and a big gust came along, it was dusk and it was just hitting good, and i saw a balled up towel or something tumbling down the road and realized it was my neighbors little dog. and that was only about 110-120 mph.


He would literally be knocked off his feet from the intense winds. My friends experienced Andrew in Homestead and said it was the worst experience of there life. Now they live near me in orlando.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dang that bad jeff but pottery probably dancing in the rain right now!


He said you can hardly see anything outside his office it's raining that hard. They are engineers at the Coca cola plant there.
Joe Bastardi showed this on his video today. This is why I love the European. The image below is the EUROSIP ENSO forecast and verification from November, 2009. I mean wow, that was a dang good forecast. The model even forecasted the turnaround correctly and everything. This is very much unlike the CFS which is more reactive and at that time in November was forecasting warming to just continue and El Nino to stay intact throughout the entire summer. Sorry, but the European destroys the CFS.

Neutral trending down, where's those large eruptions Dr. Masters was talking about.
I see the expression "minimal cat 5" being tossed around in here. If you are outside during Cat 4 or 5 conditions, anything carried by the wind that hits you will turn you into hamburger. Seriously, that's Darwin Award type behavior.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


With the amount of debris to be flying through the air @ 156+ miles an hour, you'd be nuts. By the time you spotted that 2x4 hurling at you, you'd have a nice hole in your chest. No way.
2x4's can only hurl at you if there are 2x4's to be hurled. Oz has stated several times, it would have to be the right cat 5, at the right place and the right time. He's not talking about throwing himself into ANY situation. Depending on track, I can envision the right spot at the right time where there would be no debris. If there is, don't go out there...
There is no such thing as a minimal cat 5 storm a cat 5 is a cat 5 and there is nothing is minimal about it. youre out there in 156 miles per hour wind a blade of grass can kill you.
Quoting Jeff9641:


He would literally be knocked off his feet from the intense winds. My friends experienced Andrew in Homestead and said it was the worst experience of there life. Now they live near me in orlando.


Video from a bonafide cat5 absolutely not. I went through andrew in 92 and i can also say it was the most terrifying experience ive ever been through and to this day feel lucky to have to have made it through some of those 150+mph wind gusts.
Standing in a cat1 can get you killed.
Too many variables, IMO. With a chance that any building around you could crumble and any time. But, it's true, if your the first to do it and make it out alive, just imagine.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
There is nosuch thing as a minimal cat 5 storm a cat 5 is a cat 5 and there is nothing is minimal about it. youre out there in 156 miles per hour wind a blade of grass can kill you.

Maybe Oz can modify and transport a steel Tornado Shelter to a "safe site", bolt it into the ground, install some 2" Kevlar plastic windows and video from inside the shelter. that is the only safe way to film a land falling CAT 5.
Afternoon Patrap. Yes I remember Elena very well. It hit a week before I left for basic in San Antonio. 2 weeks later a tornado hit my parents house and they had to send me home.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Maybe Oz can modify and transport a steel Tornado Shelter to a "safe site", bolt it into the ground, install some 2" Kevlar plastic windows and video from inside the shelter. that is the only safe way to film a land falling CAT 5.


The flagpole, you forgot the flagpole!
Thanks to the strong easterly flow, I've been getting some heavy showers in Melbourne, Fl this morning. Looks like we're just about to sea breeze season.
Quoting Grothar:


The flagpole, you forgot the flagpole!

No tying a man to a flagpole makes him a target for all the flying debris to hit him, not a good set-up.
i thought it took about 90f to get the sea breeze full effect late may in e cent. florida
The best setup is not to be there, Bordonaro.
Quoting leftovers:
i thought it took about 90f to get the sea breeze full effect late may in e cent. florida
The sea breeze can become active with a light e or w flow and with temps anywhere in the 80's.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The best setup is not to be there, Bordonaro.

I agree, but we all know Oz!
Thank you, Dr. Masters, for caring about our European volcano problem and the very helpful informations.



Ash Forecast Friday evening (from Norway):
I can name at least 5 people I would like to see outside in a CAT 5. And most of you thought I was nice. LOL

I am sure most of you would have someone they would like to volunteer. Come on now, be honest.


I bet JFV will volunteer himself....
I watched a show on Discovery where a scientist stood in a wind tunnel and they kept ramping up the wind speeds. No debris and he was straped to the ground for safty he only withstood Cat 3 winds before "the air got forced out of my chest"

Basically the force of the wind even if at your back would creat low pressure areas and basically suck the air out of your lungs. Or if facing it prevent you from fully expanding your chest thus creat a hypoxia situation.

Either way your looking at oxygen depervation and thus bad things. This is long before the errant soda straw impales you.

Now with all that said... get a good tornado camera setup (we have all watched discovery channel) and place the cam well before landfall. Get the hell out of Dodge and hopefully when you can get back the vid equiip will still be there. Im thinking a parking structure with floors above 25 feet. Enough protection from the wind that the gear may be OK, high enough to survive the surge.
A preview of what it will be like outside in a CAT5.. no kite needed. Darwin Award stuff indeed!


Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Thanks to the strong easterly flow, I've been getting some heavy showers in Melbourne, Fl this morning. Looks like we're just about to sea breeze season.


Later this weekend and into next week expect active seabreeze thunderstorms in E C FL. Light winds and tropical moisture moving in with some disturbances aloft then presto.
Quoting Rainman32:
A preview of what it will be like outside in a CAT5.. no kite needed. Darwin Award stuff indeed!




If I remember he died because of this.
The rainy season is back!
I wonder were are caribean posters are maybe there enjoying there rain?
Quoting hurricane23:


Video from a bonafide cat5 absolutely not. I went through andrew in 92 and i can also say it was the most terrifying experience ive ever been through and to this day feel lucky to have to have made it through some of those 150+mph wind gusts.


It was a a MIRACLE the death toll was so low. I remember Andrew and every 10 minutes I would here the screech of a cat dying. It was no joke and if South Dade got blown away I cant imagine anyone outside lived.
150. xcool
European. BEST
Hey xcool yes euro is king!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Later this weekend and into next week expect active seabreeze thunderstorms in E C FL. Light winds and tropical moisture moving in with some disturbances aloft then presto.
I agree. Most of the activity will be concentrated to the East of the state as the flow at that time will be from the west.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I wonder were are caribean posters are maybe there enjoying there rain?


Buddy, Trinidad is getting hammered. I'm noticing a fanning of clouds to his SE. I wonder if a swirl might try to develope under all of that convection firing.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I agree. Most of the activity will be concentrated to the East of the state as the flow at that time will be from the west.


I love watching Florida thunderstorms and marvel at the intense lightning they produce. Some these storms can produce lightning every second in the summer.
Quoting Jeff9641:


If I remember he died because of this.
no, he actually did not qualify for the award, although he certainly tried!

Kitesurfer injured in Fay's gusts out of hospital

156. xcool
Anyway the midday GFS has the arctic blast into the northeast during the time in question, but leaves the trough back in the west. At the very least, its got a monster northeast trough for April 24.

The Long Ranger shows the IMPRESSIVE display of nino3.4 prowess by the Eurosip model ( see ecmwf site). The most impressive aspect of the model is it forecasted the sharp up, then down, in the nino! The CFS had a much gentler slope, suggesting the nino would continue well into the summer. It isnt saying that now, but the point is the Eurosip blew it out of the water. You can go back to the CFS site and look at the difference between the forecast from November on both, and you will see what I mean.
by joe
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I wonder were are caribean posters are maybe there enjoying there rain?
Only parts of the Caribbean is getting heavy rain. Western Caribbean had light drizzle but not enough to do any good.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Only parts of the Caribbean is getting heavy rain. Western Caribbean had light drizzle but not enough to do any good.


Just give it a few more weeks as we should see the monsoon trough move N and NW from the S American Coast. Trini just entered there rainy season which is ahead of schedule. I have a feeling this is a sure sign that the tropics are going to heat up very early this year.
See you all later this afternoon.
161. DDR
Quoting Jeff9641:


Buddy, Trinidad is getting hammered. I'm noticing a fanning of clouds to his SE. I wonder if a swirl might try to develope under all of that convection firing.

Hey whats up
We're getting rain,but only isolated showers,it isn't widespread.
Quoting Bonedog:
I watched a show on Discovery where a scientist stood in a wind tunnel and they kept ramping up the wind speeds. No debris and he was straped to the ground for safty he only withstood Cat 3 winds before "the air got forced out of my chest"

Basically the force of the wind even if at your back would creat low pressure areas and basically suck the air out of your lungs. Or if facing it prevent you from fully expanding your chest thus creat a hypoxia situation.

Either way your looking at oxygen depervation and thus bad things. This is long before the errant soda straw impales you.

Now with all that said... get a good tornado camera setup (we have all watched discovery channel) and place the cam well before landfall. Get the hell out of Dodge and hopefully when you can get back the vid equiip will still be there. Im thinking a parking structure with floors above 25 feet. Enough protection from the wind that the gear may be OK, high enough to survive the surge.


I have seen this Discovery program. And, I've stood in some serious winds before...

But the most serious gust I ever encountered was during Hurricane Ivan. When the 170 mph gust hit me, I squatted low to the ground. I was not only stable in that position, but I could breathe, too. I think that was possible because in my squat position, my back was arched and my profile was reduced, thereby reducing the "low pressure" areas created by my body.

Once again, however, I'll give you "Katrina vs. Waveland" scenario.

If Katrina were coming ashore now and we suspected that Waveland would be the area where the eye of the storm would cross land, I would not be in Waveland for landfall.

I might be tempted to set up a camera that would shoot a picture every three seconds at a location in Waveland...but my body would have been in Biloxi...just as those other interceptors were.

Now...if the center of a Cat 5 would pass over Biloxi, I would be there, no doubt...as I have survival strategies that would work in that location.

For Waveland, there is only one survival strategy...and that is to not be there.


Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.

And many more...Link

164. JRRP
Quoting CycloneUK:

what is that???
Breaking News=Is official, Dr Richard Knabb will be the new Tropical OCM at TWC.I think once the people get to know and see how he explains all about the tropics every day, they will like him. The announcement at link below.

Link
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.

And many more...Link



I've seen every kind of Cat 5 aftermath picture there is...

Had I not quit my job and left town on July 31, 1992, I would have intercepted Andrew without any survival gear or survival strategies. I likely would have died.

Safe and sound in my new home far away from S. Florida, I saw all these pictures on my TV.

Those were the days I started rethinking how I might intercept hurricanes in the future, but still I stayed away from Katrina, because I was not fully prepared.

Today, I cannot be anymore prepared than I can be. I've seen the pictures, I've read the reports, I've studied the histories of these monsters.

I will give it a go at least one time for sure, but the location, the timing, and my strategies and gear will all influence my decision to go or not go on any certain system.
Quoting JRRP:

what is that???


Ash forecast with upper winds, ending on the 17th april.
Quoting DDR:

Hey whats up
We're getting rain,but only isolated showers,it isn't widespread.


I hear from some of my family's co workers there that there is very heavy rain on the eastern side of the island.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.

And many more...Link



Amazing photo!! This is why you do not go outside in a cat 5. Also, likely hood of tornadoes to spawn are great. I remember with Charley it looked like one big tornado sliced through Orlando.
One comment said volcanic ash increases albido. That is not the case for ash on snow. this article mentions an ice core in West Antarctica and its effect.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/sootinsnow/PDF_Documents/Impurities%20in%20Snow(Review).pdf

On the flip side it also mentions thick dust layers providing insulation to ice and snow.
Paris, France is closing her airports later today due to the Iceland volcano:

Link
Quoting Jeff9641:


Amazing photo!! This is why you do not go outside in a cat 5. Also, likely hood of tornadoes to spawn are great. I remember with Charley it looked like one big tornado sliced through Orlando.


I imagine it did look like a big tornado. Charley was a 4! Rita was a 3 and she shredded mobile homes and a few other structures and supposedly had no tornadoes. But it was nothing like Andrews damage. Wow! I do agree the worst part of a hurricane is the storm surge. But don't discount the wind damage. I wouldn't want to be outside in any hurricane. Especially a major one.

Volcanic eruption of Icelandic volcano: Eyjafjallajokul.

Click here for a map detailing the unavailable airspace.

No IFR clearances will be issued that penetrate contaminated airspace.

Aircraft operators planning to enter closed airspace should be prepared to divert to an alternate destination.

Click here for a map of the forecast ash cloud issued:15-1200 UTC

The next teleconference will be held at 1830UTC.
Telephone number: +32.2.289.5396
Security code: 1061#
(200 lines available)

Aircraft Operators are strongly recommended to closely monitor all relevant Notams / Volcanic Ash Sigmets.

map detailing the unavailable airspace.



map of the forecast ash cloud issued:15-1200 UTC

174. JRRP
Quoting CycloneUK:


Ash forecast with upper winds, ending on the 17th april.

ok
thanks
Quoting Jeff9641:


Amazing photo!! This is why you do not go outside in a cat 5. Also, likely hood of tornadoes to spawn are great. I remember with Charley it looked like one big tornado sliced through Orlando.


Outside in a cat 5 ummmm... if it is anything more than a stiff breeze you guys can have it, I will not fight you for the honor. I have already learned that lesson, and it did not even take a full blown cat five to do so.

It is the no see ums that always get you, I remember (quite well)sitting in my folks place as a kid when Alicia hit back in the 80's. One minute the roof was their, the next a descending tornado decided to peel the roof off the place. Had it dropped about 50 feet closer we probably would not have made it. For the rest of the ride, you had a choice of either standing downstairs in the flooded first floor or sitting upstairs in the skyview rooms. Pretty surreal looking through your bedroom ceiling and seeing the stars during the eye.
Florida is arming up a lot today. Getting into the mid 80's over west central Fl... summer coming quickly!
Weather in Trinidad.
Heavy cloud, occasional thunder, scattered rainfall (some heavy but brief)
More to come.

Thanks, Keeper!! Spot on, man!
Obama's Poland trip still on, but watching ash
(AFP) – 1 hour ago

ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE — US President Barack Obama is keeping his plans to fly to Poland for the funeral of president Lech Kaczynski despite a huge volcanic ash cloud over northern Europe, the White House said Thursday.

"It's something that we are keeping an eye on," White House spokesman Bill Burton told reporters aboard the presidential jet Air Force One, which was carrying Obama to Florida for a speech.

"Right now our schedule is still on. We have every intention of making it to Poland," Burton added.

He said he had spoken with US Air Force officials monitoring the situation in Iceland, where a violent volcanic eruption spewed clouds of thick ash into the air and disrupting air traffic across northern Europe.

"They felt confident that we'll be able to make that trip, but (the ash) is something we are watching and obviously cognizant of," Burton said of his talks with air force officials.

The fallout from the Eyjafjallajokull volcano in southeast Iceland has grounded thousands of flights as European countries imposed the biggest airspace closure since the September 11, 2001 attacks.

Obama is scheduled to leave for Krakow, Poland on Saturday to attend the funeral the next day of Kaczynski and his wife Maria, killed in a plane crash in Russia which also took the lives of dozens of other top Polish officials.

Copyright © 2010 AFP. All rights reserved.
Pottery, I'm very relieved, that you and others in the Caribean finally got some rain.

Some good new pictures of Eijaf, mixed with old ones.

Follow the volcano discussion, if you like, on the eruption's blog

Edited: Fascinating video of the eruption.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Breaking News=Is official, Dr Richard Knabb will be the new Tropical OCM at TWC.I think once the people get to know and see how he explains all about the tropics every day, they will like him. The announcement at link below.

Link


If they had him on more, it would be nice to watch, but youll only find him when serious storms and events are happening & if that is happening im surely not going to be watching the TWC.

It's going to be the same sad behind news, with them using old data and observations.
Great work, Portlight! Would've loved to be on that schooner.
182. xcool
World-wide sea surface temperatures pointing to an active hurricane season

by Raleigh



Most long range forecasters monitor sea surface temperature anomalies when thinking through their seasonal forecasts. Coming up on April 30th, I will release my summer and hurricane forecasts for this coming year. I have dropped some hints in the last month on how the warm Atlantic and weakening El Nino may favor an active Atlantic hurricane season. I wanted to take just a second and observe the recent sea surface temperature anomalies and how they are shaping up this spring.

Attached below is the latest SST anomaly map. The main thing to look at here, if you are interested in the upcoming hurricane season, is the very warm Atlantic between the coast of Africa and the Caribbean Sea. NCEP monitors the temperature anomalies in this region on a monthly basis with an index called the Tropical North Atlantic Index (TNA). The value for this index last March was +1.32C, meaning this region on average was 1.32C above normal. This is the highest March value for this index ever, following up the highest value for the index ever in February and we will likely break the record for April as well. Now a very warm Atlantic in the Spring does not necessarily mean that it will stay very warm during the hurricane season, nor does even a very warm Atlantic mean that we will have a very active hurricane season. Ultimately the weather pattern will drive the hurricane tracks and activity



However, statistically we can see a few things. The top 18 years where the Feb-April TNA averaged 0.24C or higher, keep in mind this year will likely average around 1.2C or higher, the following Aug-October period was positive in 16 out of the 18 years. The one year that saw a complete reversal was 1970. The other year that saw a reversal though not as dramatic was 1983. So if you go by statistics we have an 8 in 9 chance of seeing the main development region averaging above normal during this hurricane season. Without going too far down the road and thus ruining my hurricane forecast, I will say that the top 18 seasons which feature an August-October TNA of 0.2 or higher, the average number of storms for those season was 13.4, compared with the 62 year average of 10.8. Delving deeper, of those 18 years, 6 featured an August-October El Nino by MEI standards, those 6 years averaged 9.8 named storms, however the 12 years that did not, (which I expect this year to mimic), averaged 15.25 named storms.

So the moral of all this is that with trends continuing for a warm Atlantic and a weakening El Nino, we could be facing an active hurricane season. On April 30th, I will release my forecast for the number of storms, and my expected landfall danger zones, which will likely be of most interest.


Rita was BAD. Although only a Cat-3 at landfall, Rita was a Cat-5 at one point and a powerful storm at that.

Katrina got all the coverage for damage to the Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Forgotten is that the town of Cameron, Louisiana was completely wiped off the map by Rita's storm surge.

Rita spun off a lot of tornadoes. From about 12:00am to 3:00am... you could hear another tornado pass nearby about every 10-15 minutes. Those that think you can't hear tornados during the eye wall of a hurricane, let me assure you that we did.

Rita caused devestation all the way to 200 miles inland. That was a storm. Regarding winds and intensity, Ike was nothing in comparisson.
Quoting TexasGulf:


Rita was BAD. Although only a Cat-3 at landfall, Rita was a Cat-5 at one point and a powerful storm at that.

Katrina got all the coverage for damage to the Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Forgotten is that the town of Cameron, Louisiana was completely wiped off the map by Rita's storm surge.

Rita spun off a lot of tornadoes. From about 12:00am to 3:00am... you could hear another tornado pass nearby about every 10-15 minutes. Those that think you can't hear tornados during the eye wall of a hurricane, let me assure you that we did.

Rita caused devestation all the way to 200 miles inland. That was a storm. Regarding winds and intensity, Ike was nothing in comparisson.


You did get lucky with Rita, upon her land falling she ingested a lot of dry air and lots a lot of convection, especially on the back side of the storm.

Pat and I have great faces for radio...be sure to listen in...
Wow, Iceland's Volcano is really wreaking havoc in N Europe, for air travelers.

Article from MSNBC below in link:
Link
Quoting StormChaser81:


You did get lucky with Rita, upon her land falling she ingested in a lot of dry air and lots a lot of convection, especially on the back side of the storm.



NOBODY got lucky with Rita. That's what I try not to do. The pissin' contest about my storm was worse than yours. I have no idea how any storm I didn't experience treated anyone who did. I wasn't there. I'm sure they all sucked. That has been my experience.
The Blue Angels are buzzing about town today making quite a spectacle of themselves...
Quoting homelesswanderer:


NOBODY got lucky with Rita. That's what I try not to do. The pissin' contest about my storm was worse than yours. I have no idea how any storm I didn't experience treated anyone who did. I wasn't there. I'm sure they all sucked. That has been my experience.


I was just referring that before it ingested the dry air, it was a lot more powerful, I know people lot's everything and people lots there lives, but it could have been a lot worse. Could have been a strong cat 4 or 5.
Video of the volcano ash in Iceland. Hope they have plenty of masks and air filters for the cars.
Homeless, I don't think they are all bad, at least not for everybody. The rain they bring ending droughts is a real blessing.
Quoting StormChaser81:


I was just referring that before it ingested the dry air, it was a lot more powerful, I know people lot's everything and people lots there lives, but it could have been a lot worse. Could have been a strong cat 4 or 5.


Yeah. You're right. That wouldve been worse. Sorry. Just been a lot of posts making little of very strong storms or rather standing in them. I'm just snippy. My bad. :) Rita was awful but she didn't do what Andrew did.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yeah. You're right. That wouldve been worse. Sorry. Just been a lot of posts making little of very strong storms or rather standing in them. I'm just snippy. My bad. :) Rita was awful but she didn't do what Andrew did.


With bad situations I try to at least find something good about the event, try to stay positive. You see so much negative things these days, pulling the positive out of the negative feels better than being totally negative about the whole situation.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Homeless, I don't think they are all bad, at least not for everybody. The rain they bring ending droughts is a real blessing.


I know they can be beneficial. Just wish they could be more gentle about it. :)
Quoting StormChaser81:


With bad situations I try to at least find something good about the event, try to stay positive. You see so much negative things these days, pulling the positive out of the negative feels better than being totally negative about the whole situation.


That's a good attitude. :) And I guess on the positive side, we do live in a better neighborhood thanks to Rita. Lol.
Friday 16th April 2010
Eyjafjallajokull volcano, Iceland
A significant eruption is continuing at Eyjafjallajokull volcano in Iceland. Ash emissions are reaching a height of 33,000 ft. Emissions from the volcano are drifting across the UK, and are heading for central and eastern Europe. Ash has already reached as far south as Italy. Ash emissions remain over Britain with only Northern Ireland and the western parts of Ireland and Scotland clear.
What made Rita particularly bad was the high wind gusts. Ike had fairly consistant wind speeds, so although Ike had a devestating storm surge, it didn't cause the wind damage like Rita did. In fact, I slept through the last 1/2 of Ike without even a worry about it.

Rita was different. My mother-in-law stayed with us in Beaumont for Ike (having evac'd N.O. from Katrina). She was in Cameron, La when Hurricane Audrey came through. My wife had stayed in Biloxi for Hurricane Elena. They both said that Rita was worse.

Rita had unpredictable winds, spun off a lot of tornadoes and caused a large amount of wind damage, mainly due to very high gusts and wind variability. There were large trees down all the way to 200+ miles inland.

I knew a man that just bought 40 heavily wooded acres (hardwoods) in Kirbyville, Tx. to build his house on. He sold the land after Rita knocked down nearly 90% of the trees. Some neighborhoods around mine averaged 2 trees in the house. Not on the roof, but through the roof or outer walls. For every house that had none, some other house had 4 trees in it.

There were no athiests in Beaumont, Texas the night Rita came through.

Quoting TexasGulf:
What made Rita particularly bad was the high wind gusts. Ike had fairly consistant wind speeds, so although Ike had a devestating storm surge, it didn't cause the wind damage like Rita did. In fact, I slept through the last 1/2 of Ike without even a worry about it.

Rita was different. My mother-in-law stayed with us in Beaumont for Ike (having evac'd N.O. from Katrina). She was in Cameron, La when Hurricane Audrey came through. My wife had stayed in Biloxi for Hurricane Elena. They both said that Rita was worse.

Rita had unpredictable winds, spun off a lot of tornadoes and caused a large amount of wind damage, mainly due to very high gusts and wind variability. There were large trees down all the way to 200+ miles inland.

I knew a man that just bought 40 heavily wooded acres (hardwoods) in Kirbyville, Tx. to build his house on. He sold the land after Rita knocked down nearly 90% of the trees. Some neighborhoods around mine averaged 2 trees in the house. Not on the roof, but through the roof or outer walls. For every house that had none, some other house had 4 trees in it.

There were no athiests in Beaumont, Texas the night Rita came through.



I love hearing stories about people's moments through intense hurricanes. You always hear eye opening weird things that happen.
Quoting TexasGulf:


Rita was BAD. Although only a Cat-3 at landfall, Rita was a Cat-5 at one point and a powerful storm at that.

Katrina got all the coverage for damage to the Louisiana and Mississippi coast. Forgotten is that the town of Cameron, Louisiana was completely wiped off the map by Rita's storm surge.

Rita spun off a lot of tornadoes. From about 12:00am to 3:00am... you could hear another tornado pass nearby about every 10-15 minutes. Those that think you can't hear tornados during the eye wall of a hurricane, let me assure you that we did.

Rita caused devestation all the way to 200 miles inland. That was a storm. Regarding winds and intensity, Ike was nothing in comparisson.


Yea, but in size and stormsuge which are the most devastating part of a Hurricane. Ike outmatches Rita. However, both resulted in terrible damage and loss of life so its not really prudent to argue.
Hurricane Gilbert's impact in the Caribbean:

"Jamaica
Hurricane Gilbert produced a 19 ft storm surge and brought over 700 mm (27 inches) of rain in the mountainous areas of Jamaica, causing inland flash flooding. About 45 people died, and one child was born. Gilbert was the most severe hurricane to hit Jamaica since Hurricane Charlie in 1951.[11] The storm left $4 billion (1988 USD) in damage. Gilbert also destroyed crops, buildings, houses and roads and even turned small aircraft into shambles.

Cayman Islands
Gilbert passed 30 miles (48 km) to the south of the Cayman Islands, with a gust of 157 mph (253 km/h) reported early on September 13. However, the islands largely escaped the hurricane's wrath due to Gilbert's rather quick forward motion, and the deepness of the water surrounding the islands limited the height of the storm surge to 5 ft (1.5 m) Nevertheless, there was very severe damage to crops, trees and pastures, and a number of private homes were ruined." -extract from wikipedia

Jamaica-

Cayman-

Gilbert was a bad one too, made land fall in Jamaica, the Yucatan and Mexico.
BBC-Report:
Most restrictions on UK airspace will stay in place until 1300 BST on Friday because of ash from a volcano in Iceland, air traffic controllers say.

But some flights may be allowed after 0100 BST from Northern Ireland and several airports in Scotland.

The volcanic eruption has caused flight cancellations across Europe amid fears the ash could cause engine failures.

Air traffic control service (Nats) said its next review would be at 0230 BST but the situation was "not improving".

More:

UK extends air restrictions after Icelandic eruption
Quoting TexasGulf:
What made Rita particularly bad was the high wind gusts. Ike had fairly consistant wind speeds, so although Ike had a devestating storm surge, it didn't cause the wind damage like Rita did. In fact, I slept through the last 1/2 of Ike without even a worry about it.

Rita was different. My mother-in-law stayed with us in Beaumont for Ike (having evac'd N.O. from Katrina). She was in Cameron, La when Hurricane Audrey came through. My wife had stayed in Biloxi for Hurricane Elena. They both said that Rita was worse.

Rita had unpredictable winds, spun offs a lot of tornadoe and caused a large amount of wind damage, mainly due to very high gusts and wind variability. There were large trees down all the way to 200+ miles inland.

I knew a man that just bought 40 heavily wooded acres (hardwoods) in Kirbyville, Tx. to build his house on. He sold the land after Rita knocked down nearly 90% of the trees. Some neighborhoods around mine averaged 2 trees in the house. Not on the roof, but through the roof or outer walls. For every house that had none, some other house had 4 trees in it.

There were no athiests in Beaumont, Texas the night Rita came through.



My bad I had read somewhere she produced no tornadoes. Which didn't seem right to me either. Coulda swore it was in the TCR on Rita. But I guess not. As for all the other stuff, I know how bad she was. And tornadoes not withstanding, just her winds did a job on east Tx. Would say SE TX but like you said the destruction went way inland. But what I saw driving home ALL of the wind damage,trees, etc. were facing in the same direction almost due south. It was the strangest thing. Like a giant foot had stepped on the land laying everything down. It was a site to see. But I'd rather not see it again.

And yes Rita was worse than Ike wind wise here. But someone posted a picture of the side of a brick house where a tree had gone through. Wall and all. After Ike. So I dunno what Ike was like further to our west.
Anyway you're preaching to the choir here. I'm the crazy tree lady who comes on here and tells everyone to watch their trees and RUN! :)
Quoting StormChaser81:
You did get lucky with Rita, upon her land falling she ingested a lot of dry air and lots a lot of convection, especially on the back side of the storm.


Ummm, actually, that dry air tends to accelerate downbursts associated with singularly high areas of convection over that of an all-moist system. Those gusts *can* approach 160% of the sustained winds, outside of tornadoes. A more "healthy" TC environment will usually yield gusts of closer to %120 of the sustained winds. Also aids in the propensity for downbursts to occur at all.

References include work by Keith Blackwell and Mark Powell.

Dry air isn't always a good thing...unless it happens a day or three ahead of landfall and really ruins a TC's environment.
Finally some decent rain here in Grand Cayman we needed it badly.
Let's examine recent volcanic eruptions that have had a significant cooling effect on the climate. In the past 200 years, Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines (June 1991), El Chichon (Mexico, 1982), Mt. Agung (Indonesia, 1963), Santa Maria (Guatemala, 1902) Krakatoa (Indonesia, 1883), and Tambora (1815) all created noticeable cooling.


nothing from Mt. St. Helens?
Rita's nadoes that were actually tracked and/or reported (very hard to do in eyewall wind-areas).

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Andrew's incredibly violent winds sliced this piece plywood through the trunk of a Palm tree in Homestead, Florida.

And many more...Link


That reminds of a pic someone I know took in Slidell, LA one day after Katrina.

A butter knife embedded 2/3rds into a telephone pole about 3 feet above ground level a few houses down from his missing one. Right at the lake, too.
209. xcool
hot Summer come soon
HurricaneChaseExtrem

This video is the first in a series of videos from Slidell, Louisiana which is situated on the northeast shore of Lake Pontchartrain. This is located North (inland) of New Orleans in St. Tammany Parish. This video was taken 4 weeks post storm. Note the first half focuses on the washed up debris on the North side of Lake Pontchartrain near Slidell.


Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..

Except for a 5.2 Mw quake east of Australia and two aftershocks of 4.5 and 4.8Mw earlier today from the original 7.2Mw MX quake, the tectonic plates have been quiet today.
Hurricane Gilbert's impact in the Caribbean.

Wow. Hadn't seen that before. Goes to show they can do damage whether they make landfall or not.

Atmo

Yeah I just read that she produced a lot of tornadoes. And what you mentioned about the downbursts. I didn't know that either. I had seen a video from one of those storm chasers they had on discovery channel. Anyway, he set up equipment in the path of Jeanne I think it was, and discovered that what many had thought were tornadoes were actually some kind of winds from within the hurricane. I don't know if its the same thing you mentioned. I remember it surprised me that they didn't know that until 2004.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That reminds of a pic someone I know took in Slidell, LA one day after Katrina.

A butter knife embedded 2/3rds into a telephone pole about 3 feet above ground level a few houses down from his missing one. Right at the lake, too.


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.
Quoting Patrap:
Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..


At least they got the right state in that one...lol.

Though, just as SE TX looks more like Louisiana (but with roads that have been worked on in the last 60 years), Slidell does resemble MS more than LA, in some ways.
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(


Quoting Patrap:
Note the Storm Surge rise around this Vehicle in Slidell during Katrina..

Bad Idea..


Nuff said
Post 201-weatherwatcher12. Your posted image from Cayman was the old Cayman Diving Lodge at East End.It survived Gilbert, but not Ivan in 2004.Storm surge & wind from Ivan left but a few walls standing.
Quoting homelesswanderer:


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.

I hope that somewhere in Oz's ambitions, as I have been seeing on here, he recognizes that all sorts of "harmless" things become potentially deadly missiles in a major TC. I expect he does and has something more substantial than a power pole or tree to shield himself with.
(hmmm, maybe he should build a kevlar human-sized turtle shell)
Quoting atmoaggie:

I hope that somewhere in Oz's ambitions, as I have been seeing on here, he recognizes that all sorts of "harmless" things become potentially deadly missiles in a major TC. I expect he does and has something more substantial than a power pole or tree to shield himself with.
(hmmm, maybe he should build a kevlar human-sized turtle shell)


How about a Tornado Shelter,the 1/4" thick steel model, modified with 2" Kevlar windows bolted down into concrete away from the storm surge?
Quoting homelesswanderer:


There's a scary thought. That would definitely qualify for the weird things you see after a hurricane.

Right. Just remembered the pic in my mind's eye... The handle was bent around to flow in the same direction as the wind that sent the knife into the pole, too.

Note that I said the handle was bent (almost a full 180 degrees), not the blade. The handle of a butter knife. Even with the cheapest non-hollow one made, that is a feat.
(Though, maybe it was hit by other debris...like maybe a spoon ;-)
Quoting superpete:
Post 201-weatherwatcher12. Your posted image from Cayman was the old Cayman Diving Lodge at East End.It survived Gilbert, but not Ivan in 2004.Storm surge & wind from Ivan left but a few walls standing.

I can imagine. Ivan was extreme in Cayman and Jamaica.
Nino region 3.4 down to .6 (Is that considered neutral?)

Ninos 1 and 2 are skyrocketing due to the last of the warm sub-surface waters beginning to reach the surface.
SOI continues to soar:

Quoting Drakoen:
SOI continues to soar:


Better watch it, SOI. If you get ash in your engines, you'll come crashing back down.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Better watch it, SOI. If you get ash in your engines, you'll come crashing back down.


Ash is way too far north to affect it
Cool subsurface anomalies gaining strength and warm anomalies weakening:

Brandy new.

This "thing" in the Northern North Atlantic looks almost...subtropical.

Quoting Drakoen:


Ash is way too far north to affect it

That was purely sarcasm...(and, frankly, I am surprised you responded)
;-)
EUROSIP really crashes the El nino
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Brandy new.



Wow. The consensus looks like a warm biased ENSO at least among the dynamic and statistical computer forecast models.
Quoting NRAamy:
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(




I think the St. Helens eruption would have been too small to cause any noticeable cooling. Although it did emit a small amount of SO2 and CO2.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That was purely sarcasm...(and, frankly, I am surprised you responded)
;-)


I guess i'm just not up to par with the sarcasm as I usually am. How will I cope...
thanks, Astro!
The first Vid is of Slidell atmo,..and its a 3 part series that ALSO goes thru Mississippi as well.

The Title isnt for the one Video.
hey guys we got rain!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! but we need more.
Last but not least, here's IRI's ENSO probability chart.


Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nino region 3.4 down to .6 (Is that considered neutral?)

Ninos 1 and 2 are skyrocketing due to the last of the warm sub-surface waters beginning to reach the surface.


Neutral is between +0.5C and -0.5C
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
This "thing" in the Northern North Atlantic looks almost...subtropical.



Where is this "thing?"

If it is attached to that front, it is considered "extratropical" by the National Hurricane Center.

It really doesn't look like Subtropical Storm Andrea or Laura, and if it is attached to the front, it is considered "extratropical." Glad if I could help!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Neutral is between +0.5C and -0.5C


Ah, thanks.

That completely escaped me.
233. Mt. St. Helens. As Dr. M. said in his blog above about El Chichon (Mexico, 1982)

Credit: http://www.geus.dk/geuspage-dk.htm?http://www.geus.dk/publications/geo-nyt-geus/gi004_01.htm
Quoting Drakoen:
SOI continues to soar:



Although right now it's soaring, the long term trend is down.
Quoting NRAamy:
nuthin' on Mt. St. Helens?

:(




I was stationed in Minot, ND when Mount St. Helens blew. We all watched the ash cloud move in and then cover us, literally. Street lights came on, it got fairly dark, and the ash covered everything lightly. We were told to stay inside (oops). to NOT wipe the ash off anything, but to wash it off with a hose, and to try not to drive until the streets could be washed down. There was a run on car air filters too.
barbamz....thank you for the graph!!!!
245. Welcome. Was glad to find it just by chance.
dashboard cow man....do you have any photos?

:)
Quoting NRAamy:
dashboard cow man....do you have any photos?

:)


Unfortunately I didn't have a camera in 1980. I was a whole E3 back then with a family. Money was scarce. And I was young and dumb then too. ;)
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I can imagine. Ivan was extreme in Cayman and Jamaica.

I was here in Grand Cayman for both Gilbert 88 and Ivan 2004, with Gilbert everything was practically back to normal within 1-2 weeks the matter of days for some, with Ivan well some are still suffering though if you didn't know the Island you might wonder what Hurricane hit in 2004, to me Gilbert was just a strong summer squall compared to Ivan. In fact I think Michelle 2001, Mitch 1998 and Wilma 2005 probably did more damage to the Island than Gilbert if memory serves me correctly, though I could be wrong.
Update on the Portlight Food Shipment to Haiti - The Schooner Halie & Matthew is currently in Jamaica for urgent repairs. No scheduled date of departure for Haiti has been released. Crew is well, but significant repairs are required.
Scripps keeping it neutral throughout the season.
Unfortunately I didn't have a camera in 1980

I did...but it was a Mickey Mouse camera...I was 12 years old....

;)
Geoff - I couldn't get the link to open.

Here is another one to try:
http://www.channel3000.com/localvideo/index.html?v=28265

If the link doesn't work, go to channel3000.com, the story is on the front page. They think it hit ground in Avoca WI which is about 50 miles from my home. And I had to go to bed early last night!
The signs for this season just keep getting worse.
The LaCrosse & Milwaukee NWS also have a write-up on the meteor. It was actually tracked on radar!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/
I'm off and away now on another gold prospecting adventure into Arizona.

I showed my friend the gold I got two weeks ago this PM and he freaked out. Wanted to know all about it...where and how...LOL.

I showed him everything he needed to see.

Incredible. The man actually had gold fever in his eyes. I could see it clearly.

As for me, I do not have gold fever. I have fat belly...and digging for gold helps me get thin as I have hardly any food during these times in the desert wasteland.

So adios amigos! There's gold in dem der hills! :)

See ya'll again next week.

Oz---
Fireballs, volcanoes, earthquakes... lol the apocalypse? geez louise strange things going on
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Fireballs, volcanoes, earthquakes... lol the apocalypse? geez louise strange things going on


Today at the University of Houston (I think)...table near the student center where condoms were traded for Bibles.

Give up your Bible...get some condoms.

Apocalypse Rising?
As for me, I do not have gold fever. I have fat belly...

Budha Belly!

:)
264. xcool
hey 'Ladies and gentlemen,
Quoting CycloneOz:


Today at the University of Houston (I think)...table near the student center where condoms were traded for Bibles.

Give up your Bible...get some condoms.

Apocalypse Rising?


Link
Quoting CycloneOz:
Cat 5's are extremely dangerous storms. Personally, I missed two...Andrew and Katrina...but I missed Katrina on purpose because I did not have any survival gear or survival strategies in 2005.

To this day, no one has video that has documented the landfall of a Cat 5 hurricane where the eye of the storm crosses land.

Survey Question:

Should anyone ever attempt capturing video outside in a Cat 5 storm in an area where the eye crosses land?


do it from a parking garage, those things are unbreakable
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


do it from a parking garage, those things are unbreakable


Today is the 98th anniversary of
the "unsinkable" Titanic.
do it from a parking garage, those things are unbreakable


Today is the 98th anniversary of
the "unsinkable" Titanic.



;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


do it from a parking garage, those things are unbreakable


dropping snowballs from the top of a parking garage is fun ;)
Ok.... golden Bibles exchanged under falling meteors as the ground shook and volcano dust filled the sky's....?

I think I need a prophylactic to cover my brain.

Back to the weather...

Is a neutral nino/nina pattern possibly worse for Atlantic cane season?

Worse meaning, could lead to more canes than an actual La nina?

Any thoughts?
271. JRRP

Quoting Drakoen:
Cool subsurface anomalies gaining strength and warm anomalies weakening:



How much time you estimate those cool anomalies will reach the surface?
"Oil and Gas drilling causes Earthquakes?

Must be a DEEP hole.."

Actually, to engage those who are interested in carbon storage let me rephrase the question, "Can storage of anthropogenic carbon cause an earthquake".

The answer is proven YES, of magnitude 4.9

Googel "induced earthquake bibiliography" to get an overview of this subject (I work in it... let's just say this question yanked my chain).

As Patrap pointed out, no, drilling (nor hydraulic fracturing) causes earthquakes, and as he/she pointed out hydraulic fracturing causes seismic events on the order of magnitude -3 to -1, hardly qualifying as an earthquake.

I will focus on only one event, that of the Rangely Field, to tie it into the challenges that are there for storing carbon underground.

The Rangely Field, operated by Chevron in northwestern Colorado, is undergoing a CO2 flood. Unlike almost all other CO2 floods, the carbon dioxide being used is generated by human activity, namely, Exxon natural gas production nearby. It is actually a long term pilot project, if you will, of sequestration of CO2.

Anyway, there are two things that happen in oil and gas fields that can cause earthquakes. The first is depletion, lowering the pressure. This lowers the stress and sometimes faults move. Since the stress is being lowered these tend to not be so big... the largest of which I am aware is a 3.5 magnitude event associated with the Groningen field in The Netherlands.

The ones associated with injection can be more serious. What happened in the Rangely case is that they overinjected the CO2 and critically stressed the fractures. Ditto for the recent earthquakes in the DFW area caused by badly designed injection of used fracture fluids. Owing to the fact that one is tending towards a state of zero net effective stress in some of these cases the faults can get critically stressed.

Googel "zoback ekofisk field earthquake" for an interesting paper on this. The coauthor "Zoback" is Mark Zoback at Stanford who made his name, with his wife, for mapping the earth's stress state. Now, that paper was accepted in 2000. In March 2001....

A magnitude 4.1 earthquake was epicentered at Ekofisk.

IMHO anything above a magnitude 3.5 is not acceptable and furthermore preventable.

Given many of the papers I have seen on CO2 storage where they don't consider the pressure (increasing pressure decreases net effective stress and leads to critically stressed states)...

Sequestration potential is vastly overrated.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


How much time you estimate that cool pool will reach the surface?


Sometime in May
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Fireballs, volcanoes, earthquakes... lol the apocalypse? geez louise strange things going on
these are just the beginnings
The beginnings of what?
all things that must pass
According to meteorologist Thorsteinn Jónsson at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the ash emitted from the volcano in Eyjafjallajökull in south Iceland will continue to drift across Europe and spread to many countries in the next 24 hours.

Scandinavia, the British Isles, the Benelux countries and even Poland will be subject to ash fall in the next 24 hours, Jónsson told ruv.is. He finds it likely that the eruption will continue at the same force and that ash can spread as widely as across the entire northern hemisphere.
Don’t understand Keeper. Please elaborate.
Quoting stormpetrol:

I was here in Grand Cayman for both Gilbert 88 and Ivan 2004, with Gilbert everything was practically back to normal within 1-2 weeks the matter of days for some, with Ivan well some are still suffering though if you didn't know the Island you might wonder what Hurricane hit in 2004, to me Gilbert was just a strong summer squall compared to Ivan. In fact I think Michelle 2001, Mitch 1998 and Wilma 2005 probably did more damage to the Island than Gilbert if memory serves me correctly, though I could be wrong.
You are 100 % correct. Michelle did a job on WB, Gilbert did a job on EE and Ivan did a job on everyone. You are also right in saying some people still are not back to normal. What about the ones still living in the trailers ?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
these are just the beginnings

Something is just not right. I just don't know what it is, I'm no fanatic but prophecy sames being fullfilled not just Biblical, but the Mayas , other famous individuals and ancient civilizations, just my opinion of course!
Quoting PcolaDan:
According to meteorologist Thorsteinn Jónsson at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the ash emitted from the volcano in Eyjafjallajökull in south Iceland will continue to drift across Europe and spread to many countries in the next 24 hours.

Scandinavia, the British Isles, the Benelux countries and even Poland will be subject to ash fall in the next 24 hours, Jónsson told ruv.is. He finds it likely that the eruption will continue at the same force and that ash can spread as widely as across the entire northern hemisphere.

My niece is in Spain and has a plane scheduled to return to England this Saturday. My sister is here in Florida, and worried that her daughter will be stranded in Spain. Does anyone have any info on when the airports will reopen in England?
Quoting stormpetrol:

Something is just not right. I just don't know what it is, I'm no fanatic but prophecy sames being fullfilled not just Biblical, but the Mayas , other famous individuals and ancient civilizations, just my opinion of course!


The only difference between now and the past is --- instant reporting by anyone with a cell phone/camera/video camera, etc. None of these events are unusual, nor happening more frequently. News just spreads faster, and is more sensationalized.
284. JRRP
BadNewsforBritishAirways

From what I read this morning, it appears that earthquakes will trigger volcanic eruptions.
Quoting Chicklit:

My niece is in Spain and has a plane scheduled to return to England this Saturday. My sister is here in Florida, and worried that her daughter will be stranded in Spain. Does anyone have any info on when the airports will reopen in England?


Well first off, I can think of worse places to be stuck. ;)

Seriously though, I don't think they know at this point. If the volcano keeps spitting ash?...
Below is from news.bbc.co.uk which is a good source. Nothing has changed from what I saw earlier today
p.s. GMT is 5 hours ahead of you.

A spokesman for the UK's National Air Traffic Service (Nats) said its airspace restriction was the worst in living memory, and that it was "very unlikely that the situation over England will improve in the foreseeable future".

The restrictions will not be lifted before 1300 (1200 GMT) on Friday at the earliest.

The Republic of Ireland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, the Netherlands and Finland all later shut down their airspace entirely, while there was also major disruption in France, Germany, Poland and Spain.

The Norwegian and Belgian authorities said their airspace would remain closed for most of Friday. Half of all transatlantic flights are expected to be cancelled.
Quoting PcolaDan:


The only difference between now and the past is --- instant reporting by anyone with a cell phone/camera/video camera, etc. None of these events are unusual, nor happening more frequently. News just spreads faster, and is more sensationalized.
You could be right maybe technology has changed how events are viewed, only time will tell the true tale but I say hang on I think we're in for a big surprise and one hell of a ride, not just hurricanes but other disasters of Mother Nature



of course its only my opinion which I'm entitled to even if 500% wrong.
Hello everyone!
hi stormpetrol. any rain in caymans yet?
Chicklit did you get any rain today?
Wasn't there also a plague of locusts somewhere recently?
Quoting PcolaDan:


The only difference between now and the past is --- instant reporting by anyone with a cell phone/camera/video camera, etc. None of these events are unusual, nor happening more frequently. News just spreads faster, and is more sensationalized.
how big of an event will it take
a work of fiction only

..The first week it twas unique,a CNN Moment for Geeks and the layman.The Fissure Eruption in Iceland was just a side bar story,interesting ,but not lead item stuff.

Then Saturday the 17th "it" Hit.

Of course the first to see it were the early risers that morning on the wunderground.com,bloggers in Jeff Masters entry,and they were avg 30 post per minute.

First Light showed the Atlantic glow from Iceland's west coast opening and widening on the GOES Imagery..the 3 hour animated IR was ominous.

A 600 Mile Long,by 12 mile wide rift had torn open and the 8.8 Earthquake just South of Iceland's South Coast had generated a Tsunamni Warning already that has been recomputed 3 times in 4 hours.

It now had Warnings up for Nova Scotia ,The East Coast down to Haiti and Puerto Rico.

No words are coming from Reykjavik...nor Halifax.

The Mayans may had miscalculated a tad.



Quoting presslord:
Wasn't there also a plague of locusts somewhere recently?
yes in the land down under
Quoting Chicklit:
hi stormpetrol. any rain in caymans yet?

Hi Chicklit yes finally today I would say we had a fairly decent rain but we need more I have never seen it so dry and persihed here.
Wow 4.9
Wyoming/Utah
Hold on folks its going to be a bumpy few years!
perished.
Well first off, I can think of worse places to be stuck. ;)

Yeah, she said Italy would have been worse. The men are better looking there.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how big of an event will it take


Much bigger than anything we've seen. I'm not an Armageddon type. Will something happen? Yes. When? We have now idea IMO, tomorrow, or in 10,00 years. But we each have our own beliefs. I prefer to live my life not waiting for the next "big one" to happen. Just trying to enjoy the life I have left, whether it be 1 day or (I hope) another 30 years or so.
Ill come back tomorrow bye
.
Quoting spathy:
Ok.... golden Bibles exchanged under falling meteors as the ground shook and volcano dust filled the sky's....?

I think I need a prophylactic to cover my brain.

Back to the weather...

Is a neutral nino/nina pattern possibly worse for Atlantic cane season?

Worse meaning, could lead to more canes than an actual La nina?

Any thoughts?


Yes a cold-leaning neutral or a weak La Nina is the best setup for Atlantic hurricanes. A moderate La Nina can be favorable too, but once the La Nina gets to a certain point and becomes "too" strong, it can actually negatively affect Atlantic hurricane activity by sucking heat out of the tropical atmosphere and reducing storms in the eastern Atlantic.

This was likely one of the big problems we saw in a dramatic way in 1973, when a strong El Nino the previous winter reversed into a strong La Nina very fast during the hurricane season. That year, however, had only 8 named storms with extremely low ACE, and was a bust. The strong La Nina combined with faster-than-normal trade winds across the eastern Atlantic resulted in fewer storms than normal.

It is interesting to note that the NAO index in 1973 was negative during the heart of the hurricane season. And yet, trade winds were strong due to higher-than-normal pressures over the Atlantic between 20N and 35N. This fits in with my theory that during the summertime you can't necessarily judge the NAO patterns in the Atlantic by the numeric index value alone.



August-September Sea-level pressure anomalies in 1973:

Quoting Patrap:
a work of fiction only

..The first week it twas unique,a CNN Moment for Geeks and the layman.The Fissure Eruption in Iceland was just a side bar story,interesting ,but not lead item stuff.

Then Saturday the 17th "it" Hit.

Of course the first to see it were the early risers that morning on the wunderground.com,bloggers in Jeff Masters entry,and they were avg 30 post per minute.

First Light showed the Atlantic glow from Iceland's west coast opening and widening on the GOES Imagery..the 3 hour animated IR was ominous.

A 600 Mile Long,by 12 mile wide rift had torn open and the 8.8 Earthquake just South of Iceland's South Coast had generated a Tsunamni Warning already that has been recomputed 3 times in 4 hours.

It now had Warnings up for Nova Scotia ,The East Coast down to Haiti and Puerto Rico.

No words are coming from Reykjavik...nor Halifax.

The Mayans may had miscalculated a tad.





not a work of fiction
In North America, the winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey, and the longest freezing over of Chesapeake Bay. There was ice skating in Charleston Harbor, a huge snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans, and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico all this because of a little volcano on iceland
Quoting Chicklit:
perished.
Well first off, I can think of worse places to be stuck. ;)

Yeah, she said Italy would have been worse. The men are better looking there.


uuhhh I'm guessing it's your sister that said Italy would be worse, not your niece. :-)

BTW she might want to check rail, although I understand seats are filling up fast.
Copied from The Deseret News Web Site
5.0 magnitude earthquake at Utah-Wyoming border
By Lana Groves


Deseret News
Published: Thursday, April 15, 2010 6:31 p.m. MDT13

RANDOLPH %u2014 Reports of a magnitude 5.0 earthquake hit the Utah-Wyoming border near Randolph just before 6 p.m. Thursday.

The Salt Lake City office of the National Weather Service confirmed reports and said they've felt the earthquake down at the Salt Lake International Airport.

"We haven't heard any reports of damage yet," said forecaster Nanette Hosenfeld.

Officials with the Utah Seismograph Stations are working on gathering information and map the earthquake on their website quake.utah.edu.

The Deseret News will update as more information becomes available.

%u2014 Lana Groves
Quoting PcolaDan:


Much bigger than anything we've seen. I'm not an Armageddon type. Will something happen? Yes. When? We have now idea IMO, tomorrow, or in 10,00 years. But we each have our own beliefs. I prefer to live my life not waiting for the next "big one" to happen. Just trying to enjoy the life I have left, whether it be 1 day or (I hope) another 30 years or so.

Actually thats how I live for today only let tomorrow take care of itself, it don't exist as far as I'm concerned, but at the same time I am also a realist, if history repeats itself well who knows? just a thought.
Thanks Levi
I thought I remembered something along those lines.

And oh crud!
The strong La Nina combined with faster-than-normal trade winds across the eastern Atlantic resulted in fewer storms than normal. Drakoen

We had a strong El Nino so maybe we'll get a strong La Nina which would cancel out some of the favorable conditions this hurricane season.
Just arrived from the airport. They plane to Ft. Lauderdale, was only half full. Most of the passengers on that flight are connecting from Europe. Guess a lot didn't make it. Anything interesting happen since I have been gone? Just to tired to scroll.
Part two of an interview with the Captain of BA9 which suffered a four engine failure over Indonesia
in June 1982 after flying in to the ash cloud from the erupting Mt Galungung.

Quoting Grothar:
Just arrived from the airport. They plane to Ft. Lauderdale, was only half full. Most of the passengers on that flight are connecting from Europe. Guess a lot didn't make it. Anything interesting happen since I have been gone? Just to tired to scroll.



yet another earthquake....pretty weird...
Were discussing the end days Grothar and the winter of 1784 when you were in NOLA Ice Skating on the Miss River..and Floodman and I got in that "thing" in Tromso,in the old Country.
...and my mind is set: It's weird!!!!!!!!!! Please don't try to confuse me with facts...
Quoting Chicklit:
The strong La Nina combined with faster-than-normal trade winds across the eastern Atlantic resulted in fewer storms than normal. Drakoen

We had a strong El Nino so maybe we'll get a strong La Nina which would cancel out some of the favorable conditions this hurricane season.


The El Nino would have to right this second take a near 90 degree drop on all charts to become a Strong La Nina. This season is more likely to be a Cold-neutral or a weak La Nina.
anyone hear from pottery wondering if he got enough rain today
Quoting Chicklit:
The strong La Nina combined with faster-than-normal trade winds across the eastern Atlantic resulted in fewer storms than normal. Drakoen

We had a strong El Nino so maybe we'll get a strong La Nina which would cancel out some of the favorable conditions this hurricane season.


That was me lol. But yes, that is one hope we have, that perhaps the Japanese model is right, and we head right into a very strong La Nina, which may limit Atlantic activity, as well as shoving storms off to the south and sparing the United States more than it would have. I don't see a strong La Nina coming on during the season as a likely possibility. I think it will be more along the lines of a weak La Nina, but we can hope.
Quoting stormpetrol:
301. Levi32
Just because I said Biblical prophecy you had to take a cheap shot, I used to think you were one best here, still do you're knowledge of weather is excellent FYI I'm not a Biblical fanatic and actually somewhat agnostic at times though overall I'm a believer if that makes sense , probably applies to most anyhow most won't admit it, but its ok I'm comfortable in the real world, neither from a scientific or fanatical point of view.Most people that think they're supersmart often find out from simple people they are not quite as bright as they think they are.


Uh....????

I haven't a clue what you're talking about. I was replying to Spathy's comment.
no cheap shots allowed.

tequila 1800 would work
StormP

Wo Wo Wo

Levi was quoting me summing up the blog topic as I had just entered.
And then he kindly answered my question about cane season.

Please reread. :0)
Hi Levi, sorry 'bout that...

The volcano they're really worried about erupting is Katla.
Link
Quoting Patrap:
Were discussing the end days Grothar and the winter of 1784 when you were in NOLA Ice Skating on the Miss River..and Floodman and I got in that "thing" in Tromso,in the old Country.


Funny, I didn't start skating until 1785. Flood gave me a pair of his old skates from when he was young. I don't remember 1783 being that cold.
Tomorrow, by the way, is World Hug A Catholic Day. Please govern yourselves accordingly...
Passengers in Manchester have been left grounded after ash from a volcano in Iceland forced the closure of UK airspace. . Follow us on twitter at http://twitter.com

Hey Grothar. You mean other than Iceland taking their frustrations out on Europe? lol
Quoting Grothar:


Funny, I didn't start skating until 1785. Flood gave me a pair of his old skates from when he was young. I don't remember 1783 being that cold.



My memory must be slipping a tad..your correct of course.

Tromso ist ein sehr guter Ort, zum des Nektars der Hopfen und der Gerste zu erhalten
327. JRRP
but strong Niña event increase the amount of hurricane
"From records, we know that every time Eyjafjallajokull erupts, Katla has also erupted."

Good thing is, you can still cruise.
Quoting JRRP:
but strong Nia event increase the amount of hurricane


Those stats are only since 1985, and the number showing most hurricanes in a strong La Nina may be true, since favorable upper-level conditions could allow a greater percentage of storms to reach hurricane strength, but the total named storms are less than a moderate or weak La Nina. If you look back to 1950, strong La Ninas have significantly less named storms than moderate or weak La Ninas. I haven't averaged up the hurricanes though.
So it appears there is no hope for another 'soft' season JRRP.
Can someone tell us what's going on with the Hailie and Mathew?
I may have to find out the answer in the morning as I've had a wicked day and am fading fast...
Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.6 (Preliminary magnitude — update expected within 15 minutes)
Date-Time Friday, April 16, 2010 at 01:45:15 UTC
Thursday, April 15, 2010 at 05:45:15 PM at epicenter

Location 54.450°N, 160.900°W
Depth 30 km (18.6 miles) set by location program
Region ALASKA PENINSULA
Distances 102 km (63 miles) SSW (195°) from Sand Point, AK
114 km (71 miles) SE (127°) from King Cove, AK
144 km (89 miles) SE (125°) from Cold Bay, AK
996 km (619 miles) SW (226°) from Anchorage, AK

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST=010, Nph=010, Dmin=0 km, Rmss=0.6 sec, Gp=205°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=A
Source NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

Event ID pt10106000
Quoting Patrap:



My memory must be slipping a tad..your correct of course.

Tromso ist ein sehr guter Ort, zum des Nektars der Hopfen und der Gerste zu erhalten


Wo ist die nördlichste Brauerei?
chick....they are belayed in jamaica for a couple days
Greetings.
It rained today!
Well, actually, in some parts of the Island it rained pretty good. Came up from the west (not the usual thing), and petered out just short of me, so I only got 1/4" of the Good Stuff. Was heavy just west of here.
There is the chance we may get some more tonight/tomorrow. But after that, it seems we go back to dry-mode.
Is a 5.6 considered major in Alaska?
Quoting Chicklit:
So it appears there is no hope for another 'soft' season JRRP.
Can someone tell us what's going on with the Hailie and Mathew?
I may have to find out the answer in the morning as I've had a wicked day and am fading fast...


You are getting sleeeepyyyy, you are getting sleeeepyyyyy. Watch the pendulummmmmm.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I didn't feel it :)
There has been a 4.9 magnitude earthquake in Wyoming.

There has also been a 5.6 magnitude earthquake in the Alaskan Peninsula.
341. JRRP

Quoting Levi32:


Those stats are only since 1985, and the number showing most hurricanes in a strong La Nina may be true, since favorable upper-level conditions could allow a greater percentage of storms to reach hurricane strength, but the total named storms are less than a moderate or weak La Nina. If you look back to 1950, strong La Ninas have significantly less named storms than moderate or weak La Ninas. I haven't averaged up the hurricanes though.

ook
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is a 5.6 considered major in Alaska?


Nope not really lol. I've been through a few 5-6s. There hasn't been anything really major here that I can recall since the 1964 Good Friday earthquake.
Quoting presslord:
chick....they are belayed in jamaica for a couple days


good place to be belayed. If one has to be belayed. Sorry for the people waiting on the supplies.
Quoting Grothar:


Wo ist die nördlichste Brauerei?


Tromso Norwegen. Urrrrrp. .scuse ich. Mack-O Brauerei
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't feel it :)
best not of cause if you did well one would have to be on the sea floor for that one
they chose to replace a damaged steering cable before going into Haiti...


I have a dear friend in Cold Bay AK...Was the quake near there?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is a 5.6 considered major in Alaska?
No considering that one of the strongest earthquakes in history happened there (Magnitude 8.7)
Hello, all - long time no see! Just popping in to let everyone know that it's time to start planning your 2010 Honor Walk & Roll for Portlight's Haiti shelter project and domestic disaster relief:

2010 Portlight/WU Honor Walk & Roll
Quoting Levi32:


Uh....????

I haven't a clue what you're talking about. I was replying to Spathy's comment.
My apologies Levi32, I jumped the gun, at least I'm man enough to admit I deleted it immediately after I posted it I was hoping I got it but apparently I didn't, sorry!!
Quoting presslord:
they chose to replace a damaged steering cable before going into Haiti...


I have a dear friend in Cold Bay AK...Was the quake near there?
The epicenter was 89 miles away from Cold Bay, Alaska so he/she probably felt some sort of jolt.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No considering that one of the strongest earthquakes in history happened there (Magnitude 8.7)


9.2, actually. Link
Quoting stormpetrol:
My apologies Levi32, I jumped the gun, at least I'm man enough to admit I deleted it immediately after I posted it I was hoping I got it but apparently I didn't, sorry!!


That's ok lol.
Quoting Levi32:


That's ok lol.

Thanks and keep up your very informative posting here.
Quoting Levi32:


9.2, actually. Link
Oh yes you're right! My apologies.
Came across a great article on the USGS website on the all the recent earthquake activity. Here is the link:

Link
Quoting Patrap:


Tromso Norwegen. Urrrrrp. .scuse ich. Mack-O Brauerei


Sehr gut! Proud of you for that one.
WHAT IS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THE GFS AND THE CMC ARE DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARRIBEAN?
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
WHAT IS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THE GFS AND THE CMC ARE DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARRIBEAN?


Put your shutters and shower curtains up now! It's never too early!
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
WHAT IS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THE GFS AND THE CMC ARE DEVELOPING IN THE NW CARRIBEAN?
Neither of those models are developing anything. Anyways calm down it is only Mid April. You still got another month and a half.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Put your shutters and shower curtains up now! It's never too early!
LMAO
hey hurricanecat5 its not a tropical system or not that I know of we maybe well maybe its subtropical either way I wish we could have more rain
re: post 358
Geoffrey, what's with the shower curtains? Do you put those over the windows?
Of course, shower curtains keeps the water out!
hey, noshoes? These are the only shower curtains that will protect you.

aww heck, it's worth a ban...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Put your shutters and shower curtains up now! It's never too early!


How do shower curtains behave, in strong winds? Interesting thought...
Quoting noshoes:
re: post 358
Geoffrey, what's with the shower curtains? Do you put those over the windows?


Hey noshoes, I don't mean to step on anybody's toes, but that is funny. Leave it to Geoff. You think he is gone and here comes the shot.
Aquak and Geoffrey...okay guys...have your fun. I bought rolls of heavy duty poly. and taped that over the windows pre: Ivan. It worked, but maybe shower curtains would have been easier huh? LOL
Luv the fishy curtains.
A 15year-old girl's thoughts on Eyjafjallajokull,
"We had to leave all our things behind and some us didn't have time to get dressed and were just wearing our pyjamas. When we were on the coaches we were told that the valley could be flooded at any time by all the melting ice above the glacier.
I have spoken to my mum and dad and let them know I am okay. This is the best geography field trip ever!"
Hey...anniversary of the Titanic sinking...I'll go down with you. But for real, the sinking changed laws that still last til this day.
Grothar, I thought it was funny. Can't be thin-skinned around this bunch!
(And I AM learning about hurricanes. I think) :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hey...anniversary of the Titanic sinking...I'll go down with you. But for real, the sinking changed laws that still last til this day.


The International Ice Patrol for one. Boy, that was a "Night to Remember"
Quoting noshoes:
Aquak and Geoffrey...okay guys...have your fun. I bought rolls of heavy duty poly. and taped that over the windows pre: Ivan. It worked, but maybe shower curtains would have been easier huh? LOL
Luv the fishy curtains.


For real…get Hurricane shutters. Don’t buy into the fallacy of just putting tape on windows.
Quoting Grothar:


The International Ice Patrol for one. Boy, that was a "Night to Remember"


Walter Lord...read that book way back when.
The final radiotelegraph transmissions from the Titanic. This recording is in all likelihood a simulation, but its exact origin is not known. It is notable for the authentic-sounding rotary spark gap tone and also for the code speed-- rather quick for a hand key! A video of the keying waveform is provided for further analysis

Howdy, interesting list?

Lots of regional activity.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Quoting Patrap:
The final radiotelegraph transmissions from the Titanic. This recording is in all likelihood a simulation, but its exact origin is not known. It is notable for the authentic-sounding rotary spark gap tone and also for the code speed-- rather quick for a hand key! A video of the keying waveform is provided for further analysis



If I remember correctly, it was the first time SOS was actually used for a real emergency. Anybody know for sure?
Hello everybody.
Grothar, re: hurricane shutters. I lived in a high-rise condo. No shutters. I did not tape the windows, I taped the poly over the inside of the windows. It worked. No leaks.
Hurricane shutters are a major expense for some of us, and out of the question. So...we prepare the best we can, and ride it out in place, or evac. depending on the circumstances. I am well inland now...most danger will probably be from falling trees.
Quoting Grothar:


If I remember correctly, it was the first time SOS was actually used for a real emergency. Anybody know for sure?


Yes...It was the first time a S.O.S was sent.
Quoting noshoes:
Grothar, re: hurricane shutters. I lived in a high-rise condo. No shutters. I did not tape the windows, I taped the poly over the inside of the windows. It worked. No leaks.
Hurricane shutters are a major expense for some of us, and out of the question. So...we prepare the best we can, and ride it out in place, or evac. depending on the circumstances. I am well inland now...most danger will probably be from falling trees.


I didn't mention the shutters, that was GeoffWPB, but actually it is a good investment for those who can afford it.
Oops...that was to Geoffrey re: the tape on windows, not Grothar.
My apologies, Grothar.
Yes they are we got hurricane shutters in 2003 and thank god we did in 2004 frances hit us here in tampa but it wasnt that bad here but the shutters worked, but jeanne was scary because pieces of limbs would hit the shutter and make this loud bang but good thing it was moving so yes get the shutters they kept our house safe.
tape on windows does not work dont do it dont try it or else you will be picking up glass all over the house.
There are good deals now on Hurricane Shutters. Do some shopping. As a Customer Service Manager at my job, I talk to a lot of a lot of people. Roofers, Contractors, Landscapers, etc. They actually hope for a busy Hurricane season. They need the business.
Quoting noshoes:
Oops...that was to Geoffrey re: the tape on windows, not Grothar.
My apologies, Grothar.


No apologies necessary. I lose my keys three times a day and I am not even going anywhere.
Alex
Tape on windows does work.

No tape =thousands of pieces of broken glass and a damaged house.

Tape =hundreds of broken pieces of glass and a damaged house.

See fewer pieces of glass to pick up from under pieces of roof.

Dont you know anything?
Modify
Obvious humor above.
Tape is useless!
" I lose my keys three times a day and I am not even going anywhere."

That's funny, Grothar.
Do Not Use Tape On Windows. During Hurricane Wilma, no shutters, I actually saw the windows bow in. A little bit stronger, they would of blown. Tape on windows is a myth.
There was no need for that spathy thats my opinion that tape does not work and i do know something dont use tape use plywood or shutters.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do Not Use Tape On Windows. During Hurricane Wilma, no shutters, I actually saw the windows bow in. A little bit stronger, they would of blown. Tape on windows is a myth.


It is late, and most people aren't interested, but here is a link to a very important bit of info on taping windows, during hurricanes. The result. Don't do it.

Link
Sorry Alex
That was a humorous way of driving home your obviously good point.
Oh my bad spathy sorry for snapping at you like that.
Informative link Grothar. The tape myth is just that, a myth.
Quoting spathy:
Sorry Alex
That was a humorous way of driving home your obviously good point.


Hey spathy, looks like you talk from experience. Which hurricanes were you through. I am sure Wilma for one.
Anyways here in tampa were going to be back in the rain starting saturday which is great!
Too many to remember on the eastern shore of Maryland.
Or too old? the first one I remember was Agnes.
Down here everything from Andrew on....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Informative link Grothar. The tape myth is just that, a myth.


Like the other myth about opening windows on the opposite side of the storm to equalize pressure. I wonder how many roofs blew off from that one. Might be a good indea to post some myths and facts some night earlier. I am jsut too tired tonight. Besides I lost my keyes again.
Quoting spathy:
Too many to remember on the eastern shore of Maryland.
Or too old? the first one I remember was Agnes.
Down here everything from Andrew on....


Agnes was in 1972 I believe. Caused massive flooding in NY and PA.
Grothar saw the e mail i know now that he was agreeing with me and i apologised for my harsh words.
Quoting Grothar:


Like the other myth about opening windows on the opposite side of the storm to equalize pressure. I wonder how many roofs blew off from that one. Might be a good indea to post some myths and facts some night earlier. I am jsut too tired tonight. Besides I lost my keyes again.


Very true Grothar. And I know you misspelled just to get my goat!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Very true Grothar. And I know you misspelled just to get my goat!


Like in Evelyn. LOL You are just too good to fool. See you all tomorrow. Anybody find any keys, let me know.
Grother

Agnes also caused flooding in Maryland.

Three feet of water in my basement.
And one cooped up cranky kid watching days of endless rain.
Not to mention my dads fave watering hole was completely underwater and did not reopen for months.
So he was home and cranky even longer.
See you guys tomorrow and spathy im sorry for that outburst it was uncalled for and it wont happen again see you later.
Alex no worry's.
Lots to read quickly here.
Easily misread.
Quoting spathy:
Grother

Agnes also caused flooding in Maryland.

Three feet of water in my basement.
And one cooped up cranky kid watching days of endless rain.
Not to mention my dads fave watering hole was completely underwater and did not reopen for months.
So he was home and cranky even longer.


Yes, it did, up the entire coast. The reason I remember it so well, is that I had just finished school in Germany in May and I think Agnes hit in June. I had just returned to Florida. My relatives in Pennsylvania lost their homes in Athens, PA and others were badly damaged. The worst flooding they had had in years.
Good night my friend.
Nighters
Good night John-Boy.
Quoting Grothar:


It is late, and most people aren't interested, but here is a link to a very important bit of info on taping windows, during hurricanes. The result. Don't do it.

Link


I want original rollladens, not the add-on designs. Wish someone would desing a version that would work with American style construction.
good night
Quoting PcolaDan:


I want original rollladens, not the add-on designs. Wish someone would desing a version that would work with American style construction.


Can't find them. Very expenses. Big headache. Don't work well unless installed when house is being built. They were great. I got all accordians, but they are noisy as anything during a storm, slamming back and forth. The others I had were screw-in. A lot of work, but very quiet. I am happy with the accordians, but the rolladens were a much better concept, and neater looking.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Sick child. Where do you find these? LOL
One more ?. Has anyone invested in a portable battery digital T.V.? If so, what deals did you find?
I learned from the best!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You are 100 % correct. Michelle did a job on WB, Gilbert did a job on EE and Ivan did a job on everyone. You are also right in saying some people still are not back to normal. What about the ones still living in the trailers ?


Sounds like around here. First we said before/after the hurricane, then it was before/after Rita or Humberto. After Ike we just don't try. Lol. Rita came at us one way. Humberto came at us the other way. And Ike just came at everyone. There's a tree leaning and chained up to another tree that was there before Humberto. That must be from Rita. Lol. That may seem weird but I know how long it took to get tree people to come out. We lost track of how long the blue roofs have been up.

Me and hubby took a trip down memory lane today. Spent the afternoon cleaning insulation and sheet rock off his Dallas Cowboy collectibles. That I climbed thru the window and under the roof and wall that was under the tree to get at. That was after Rita. So yeah it does take a while to get back to normal. But then again normal seems to change quite a bit around here. :)
Good morning everybody. Calm sky above me. No flights in Frankfurt and elsewhere. New series of earthquakes just startet at the iceland volcano.



Link
A radar picture of the craters as seen by Coast Guard Plane on April 15. Really doesn't look like a smiley.

Taken from: http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=28304&ew_0_a_id=360867
Picture obviously had been reversed by the newspaper, so it looks more scary. lol.
Lightnings are picking up as well.


http://andvari.vedur.is/athuganir/eldingar/vikan_is.html

I'm out. Nice day to all of you.
good morning. getting closer and closer to hurricane season 2010 really dont ramp up the worrying to mid july
Good Morning,

Our youth group just got back from a trip to Mississippi where they pulled a house out of the marsh bucket by bucket.
Katrina folks are not forgotten. I hope the new normal has hopeful aspects.
Quoting barbamz:
A radar picture of the craters as seen by Coast Guard Plane on April 15. Really doesn't look like a smiley.
...
Picture obviously had been reversed by the newspaper, so it looks more scary. lol.


Haha, that is one creepy photo!
Good Morning Everyone!!!

A heavy rain event appears to be setting up across all of C and S FL late Saturday into Sunday. We really need to watch the models as some of them want to develope 1006 SFC Low SW of Tampa or Fort Myers and linger it there for 24 to 48 hours. Non tropical of course but this setup would result in very heavy rain across the penisula the the highest totals approaching 4 to 6". PAT rates 2 to 2.5" can be expected. Unfortunatly I don't think the rain will make to the Panhandle but well see as the low may move further north than anticipated.
Gooood friday morning evreyone!
Hey jeff good morning.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey jeff good morning.


Good Morning to as well!!
I see we may have some rain this weekend we need it here in tampa.
Quoting Jeff9641:
A heavy rain event appears to be setting up across all of C and S FL late Saturday into Sunday. We really need to watch the models as some of them want to develope 1006 SFC Low SW of Tampa or Fort Myers and linger it there for 24 to 48 hours. Non tropical of course but this setup would result in very heavy rain across the penisula the the highest totals approaching 4 to 6". PAT rates 2 to 2.5" can be expected. Unfortunatly I don't think the rain will make to the Panhandle but well see as the low may move further north than anticipated.


local weather guy was saying most of the rain would be south of Tampa. Do you think this is accurate or will we get soaked too?
SUNDAY...MDLS SHOW A M/U LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE SHOWING RATHER IMPRESSIVE OMEGA
VALUES AND A BULL`S EYE OF VERY HEAVY PRECIP AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL AND EVEN THOUGH WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN...WL GO WITH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNT THAN THE MODEL IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
Miami NWS Discussion
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I see we may have some rain this weekend we need it here in tampa.


I've had nothing at my house in Longwood north of Orlando. I have a big ZERO! I am intrigued with the NAM and the CMC models for Florida as they are showing very heavy rain amounts across the penisula and I can see how this may play out. I think what ever is coming our way is building in the Bay of Campeche and if this is the system then the NAM is most likely the right solution.
Quoting BobinTampa:


local weather guy was saying most of the rain would be south of Tampa. Do you think this is accurate or will we get soaked too?


It is going to depend on the position of the LOW. I can tell you the GFS is not having CONVECTIVE feedback problems. They said this last weekend and S FL got hammered with heavy rains and strong thunderstorms. The NAM and the CMC look very promising for C FL well see if the next GFS run latches on to the NAM.
Tampa nws says that southwest florida will get the heaviest amount of rain because there in better moisture and instability there could be a few rumblers down in sarasota,fort myers areas sunday.
Hey keeperofthegate!
Quoting Jeff9641:
A heavy rain event appears to be setting up across all of C and S FL late Saturday into Sunday. We really need to watch the models as some of them want to develope 1006 SFC Low SW of Tampa or Fort Myers and linger it there for 24 to 48 hours. Non tropical of course but this setup would result in very heavy rain across the penisula the the highest totals approaching 4 to 6". PAT rates 2 to 2.5" can be expected. Unfortunatly I don't think the rain will make to the Panhandle but well see as the low may move further north than anticipated.


Just laid sod last weekend. The rain last weekend and forecast this weekend is GRRRRRRRRRRREAT! As Tony The Tiger would say.

Does wonders for the water bill :-)


Morning All
Just read a comment to a NYT article, saying eruptions of Eyjafjallajokul usually trigger another volcano in the chain, Katla, and that Katla eruptions usually are followed by weather disruptions. Any data on this?
Rain for North TX, YEAH!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
SUNDAY...MDLS SHOW A M/U LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE SHOWING RATHER IMPRESSIVE OMEGA
VALUES AND A BULL`S EYE OF VERY HEAVY PRECIP AFFECTING MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THERE MAY BE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH THE MODEL AND EVEN THOUGH WL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN...WL GO WITH LOWER PRECIP AMOUNT THAN THE MODEL IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING.
Miami NWS Discussion


Could this possibly be what might be over Florida Sunday?

Hey bordonaro finally rain but i think the show will happen next week with the possibitlity of strong thunderstorms associated with a big pacific storm still some uncertainty but thats going to be the main event this is the appetizer!
Hey grothar yes thats whats going to be over us on sunday we could be looking at heavy rainfall for saturday night and all through sunday especially south of tampa.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey bordonaro finally rain but i think the show will happen next week with the possibitlity of strong thunderstorms associated with a big pacific storm still some uncertainty but thats going to be the main event this is the appetizer!

Good morning everyone! Northern Europe is still a no fly zone. Well hopefully tomorrow things will return towards normal. Not looking good!

So far Spring has produced little/no severe weather, and not much rain either.

The Area Forecast Discussion for next weekend in the DFW area is pointing towards a powerful system, will wait a few days as models may change!
436. CyclonicVoyage 8:31 AM EDT on April 16, 2010

I am with you; gonna be pluggin the lawn with St. Augustine (I am in North Florida with lots of shade in the yard from the oak trees) this weekend but will need to keep watering....Wish some of that rain would make it up to the Big Bend sometime soon..........
Quoting Grothar:


Could this possibly be what might be over Florida Sunday?



That's the one.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Theres going to be alot more rain than that Geoff. Remember last weekend when you got dumped on and the NWS in Miami didn't expect no where near that much rain. Consider this like a tropical system coming our way this weekend. I am very eager to see the new model runs.
Good Morning...
Good morning wxlogic.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
436. CyclonicVoyage 8:31 AM EDT on April 16, 2010

I am with you; gonna be pluggin the lawn with St. Augustine (I am in North Florida with lots of shade in the yard from the oak trees) this weekend but will need to keep watering....Wish some of that rain would make it up to the Big Bend sometime soon..........



Great year to plant new grass and for the old grass to flourish. All the rains from this winter are really giving my grass a kick in the pants. I've been battling weed issues for over 2 years now and finally have the upper hand.
An experienced pilot and instructor, Roman Choromanski, showed CNN's Fred Pleitgen the Polish crash approach conditions in a flight simulator.

Link
I just got an e-mail from a freind regarding earthquake tremors in Utah but don't see anything on the net news yet.......Anyone on here heard anything?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
One more ?. Has anyone invested in a portable battery digital T.V.? If so, what deals did you find?


Here's a good selection of them under 100 bucks with free shipping. Pictures on these digital LCDs are great, even getting High-Def TV locally.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
I just got an e-mail from a freind regarding earthquake tremors in Utah but don't see anything on the net news yet.......Anyone on here heard anything?

There was a 4.9Mw quake there yesterday evening.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Great year to plant new grass and for the old grass to flourish. All the rains from this winter are really giving my grass a kick in the pants. I've been battling weed issues for over 2 years now and finally have the upper hand.


Awesome year in the SE for it...I am on a "slope" down to a creek on the property so I can't seed because of the wash-off and would rather plug, than sod, so I get get some root action going right away.......
I know there was a 4.9 in utah but other than that no not heard anything else.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I know there was a 4.9 in utah but other than that no not heard anything else.

Here is a USGS map, showing that area is an active region for quakes:

So how is everyone doing today? Has anyone seen or heard from AussieStorm?
hey KEEPEROFTHEGATE, I think we found you a new photo for your avatar.

Quoting barbamz:
A radar picture of the craters as seen by Coast Guard Plane on April 15. Really doesn't look like a smiley.

Taken from: http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=28304&ew_0_a_id=360867
Picture obviously had been reversed by the newspaper, so it looks more scary. lol.
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