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Eyewall replacement done, Katrina intensifying

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:40 AM GMT on August 28, 2005

The eyewall replacement cycle that began at about 8am this morning has ended. The 8pm EDT Hurricane Hunter pressure reading was 942 mb, down 2mb from the pressure at 6:45pm. No inner eyewall was found, just an elliptical 30-40nm eyewall. We may be on the verge of a rapid deepening phase, since the shear and dry air on the northwest side of the hurricane appear to be lessening, and the hurricane is moving over a deep layer of warm water of almost 90F. The areal size of the hurricane continues to expand, and Katrina is growing from a medium sized hurricane to a large hurricane. Where the pressure will bottom out after this deepening phase is anyone's guess, and I believe something in the 915 - 925 mb range is most likely, which would make Katrina a strong Category 4 or weak Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow afternoon. The deepening phase may last longer than usual for a major hurricane, since Katrina is expanding in size and thus has more mass to spin up.

After this phase of deepening, another eyewall replacement cycle will occur, and the timing of that cycle will be worth billions of dollars and perhaps many lives. There is no way to predict when this eyewall replacement cycle will occur. Another factor will be the timing of the tides--if Katrina hits at high tide, there may be billions more in damage. Tidal range (difference between high and low tide) at Bay St. Louis near New Orleans is two feet. High tide will occur around 8am Monday, and low tide at 8pm. There is still the possibility, too, that the trough that is now steering Katrina to the north will also create enough shear to reduce her to a Category 3 storm at landfall. This is what happened to Hurricane Ivan last year.

New Orleans finally got serious and ordered an evacuation, but far too late. There is no way everyone will be able to get out of the city in time, and they may be forced to take shelter in the Superdome, which is above sea level. If Katrina makes a direct hit on New Orleans as a Category 4 hurricane, the levees protecting the city will be breached, and New Orleans, which is 6 - 10 feet below sea level, will fill with water. On top of this 6 feet of water will come a 15 foot storm surge, and on top of that will be 20 foot waves, so the potential for high loss of life is great. Given the current track and intensity forecast, I'd put the odds of this at about 20%.

What's behind Katrina?
A very large tropical wave way out in the Atlantic, 1300 miles east of the Leeward Islands, has a low level circulation, a large and increasing amount of deep convection, and an improving upper level outflow. Shear over the system is light, waters under it are warm, and I expect a tropical depression to form tomorrow from this system. If this happens, the depression will move west-northwest towards the northernmost Leeward Islands, and possibly affect them by Thursday.


Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

the mayor is worried about the legality of it. is f legal;ity call for the evac and save as many as u can.
1002. Selu
http://www.ieminc.com/Whats_New/Press_Releases/pressrelease060304_Catastrophic.htm
Don't blame the mayor for New Orleans' problems. Emergency Management was taken over by, yes, you guessed it, HOMELAND SECURITY.

Too bad that the Louisiana National Guard, which would be helping evacuate the homeless and those without transportation, is mostly in Iraq now. As is most of the Mississippi National Guard.
yeah they have not had any recond for 4-6 hrs so its all estimated and u can't see them updating the winds without a recon. we should ahve a vortex in about 30mins to and hr
1004. iyou
CFL - i agree. Nature often pairs beauty with danger...
1005. cherikm
This link is just plain SCARY! Link
yeah. this storm is beautifulto a point. that beauty fades when u imagin whol familes, young kids, college kids, 18 yr old freshman, poor, homelss, elderly. all in a fight for their lives now. thats what this will be. a fight for your ,life
man I want to see one more vortex before I go to bed, I'm bushed, shouldn't it be less than 45?
yeah just wait it won't be too long
This link is kind of cool too, because it stays centered on the storm and if you watch the grid, it gives a good idea of the storm's movement.
i wonder if and when the news people will leave
Selu: yes, it's a shameful drain on our domestic emergency preparedness. I'd say more, but it would be intensely off-topic.
the medial is like cockroaches, the won't leave they'll just hide and come back out later.
fl thats funny man. ur right they are like cockroaches
1014. iyou
lefty, that is a given, of course you are right about the consequences.
New Orleans and Buras, LA are up to 29 and 30% cumulative strike prob respectively. I'm guessing Buras is a bit east of NOLA is that right? How far?
From the 4AM NHC advisory:

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA
IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES.
1017. Dragoon
Intensity forecast now calls for some weakening before landfall. Hopefully that will hold true.
1018. flsurge
I agree with Joshfsu123... 7Z Hurr. models show another slight shift to east as does NAM 6Z... It appears from Sat images that trough digging into TX is a bit stronger than previous model runs would indicate... I think a slight nudge to the east from this will push Katrina closer to Mobile/Pensacola early Monday.
Somehow I've lost the link to the site that shows all the different models for the path. Does someone have it?
Thanks!
GFNI calls for 153 knot sustained (175mph) winds before landfall
they are expecting another eye wall cycle. i don't think it will happen. we willsee and watch closely
it wouldn't be that far to the east. this si a strong storm and they tend to be stubborn about moving
here is a model link

Link
1024. Selu
WunderDogg...
Gotcha. Yeah, I'd say more, too, but I don't want to get off on political topics.

If you'd like to send me a wunderground email, that's fine. :-)
Traffic was pretty heavy on hwy 90(turns into I49N) west bound last night through our area but had lightened somewhat in the early morning hours. My officer just reported that the traffic is getting heavy again but is flowing smoothly.

Figured I'd report that in case anyone is coming through our area headed north and was curious about traffic. If it is getting heavy already it will probably get pretty bad later this morning.
good call stmary. keep us updated god bless you
OMG

Am I reading the SHIPS model right on the models page? It is estimating still 117 mph winds at 72 hr WHEN THE STORM WOULD BE IN TENNESSEE??? Is that right?
tmichelle1979: Here's a pretty good one:

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?12
1029. Manny
Lefty, nothing you said about 'doughnut' hurricanes and their lack of eyewall replacement cycles is correct according to what I've read. I don't mean to call you out, but if that is the basis for what you are saying, you are incorrect.

The water here is too warm for a 'doughnut' hurricane. The eye will contract and more than likely undergo another replacement cycle.

None of this is certain, of course. But I suggest you provide some information to back up what you have been saying.

Don't take this personal; I would just rather have verifiable information exchanged instead of incorrect impressions.
yes and very likley. this storm will be a strong hurricane well inland. this is what i was trying to explain earlier but people would not listen.
Thanks Lefty
Have a good night (morning?? lol) everyone. Got to go to bed so that I can get up in the am to get windows boarded up (hubby's working during storm so have to get it done just incase).
Thank you too Wunderdog.
all those are based on studies to try to understasnd them. with all cases there are exceptions to the rule. thats why we can't forcast these thing. i enjoy ur wanting to be the skeptic. thats what we need. the point is wheve a round storm with a large eye. if you want to gofind pics of classified doughnut storms i implore you to look at them than look at katrina. remeebr with weather nothing is set in stone. hurricanes are not suppose to form below 5 degress n. a storm 3 yrs agao in india formed at less than 1 degree in lat n. that was callled a once in a 400 year storm. do not belive me if u want. i predcited this storm to explode and have this lrge visible eye 13 hrs ago.
EZMonster

WTF!!!!!!?!?!?
according to that model..YES!
ok...i said before Kat did not nor would not affect me up here in TN (knoxville)...uhhhhhhh crap!
Selu: okay, will do. Meanwhile I've read that link you posted.
A couple of choice qoutes:

IEM, Inc., the Baton Rouge-based emergency management and homeland security consultant, will lead the development of a catastrophic hurricane disaster plan for Southeast Louisiana and the City of New Orleans under a more than half a million dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

The IEM teams approach to catastrophic planning meets the challenges associated with integrating multi-jurisdictional needs and capabilities into an effective plan for addressing catastrophic hurricane strikes, as well as man-made catastrophic events.

So they've contracted it out, more or less.

Wow. For some reason, I feel even sicker than before.
1036. Manny
Examining the environments associated with doughnuts, reveals that they exist when the environment is characterized by:

* Weak environmental wind shear from an easterly or east southeasterly direction (i.e. under the influence of a ridge throughout the troposphere)
* No upper level trough interactions
* SST conditions that are constant or decreasing with time and that are less than 28.6C and are greater than 25.5C

When these environmental conditions change, doughnut hurricanes lose their doughnut shape.

--------------------------------------
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/PICODAY/001017/001017.html
--------------------------------------

The surface temps in this situation do not fit those for doughnut hurricanes. Also, there will be uperlevel interaction with the trough. That also doesn't fit.
and we will know when we get the next vortes if infact she will undergo another cycle. if the eye is smaller. she has fluctuated in eye size from 35to50 mph durring the day today. thats fact. the storm on sat img right now looks like a doughnut storm.
Morning everyone. Tides are rising along Alabama coast. Praying for everyone's well-being. Take care.
1039. Dragoon
actually it was Typhoon Varmei lefty and it was like 3.5 degrees N latitude.. still low though
1040. Manny
Lefty,

There is much more to the dynamics of a storm that go beyond what is visible on a satellite image. One cannot simply look at an infrared image and think that the dynamics of this storm must be like those of simmillar shape.
and all that was based on a study of only 5 of these storms. i read that and still feel that there are exceptions to any rule when it comes to weather. thats the first rule u need to understand. like i said i am only forcasting and predicting. i am no official on this. i have not stated anything other than what i see and what i know. even if she is not a doughnut storm the likley hood of her shrinking her eye down to the level it would need to be to perfor a cycle would take atleast 24 hrs. now i repsect your opinion and i repsect the data that yes i have read. i also stated hours earlier that for this to occur it would be a freak occurence. we will agree to disagree
1042. Manny
Lefty,

Do you have any meteorological training?
oh i do. i checked microwave data, recon data, ir loops, visula sat img, i din;t make that statement out of some guess. trust me. i have 20 windows open right now. i have and will continue to be checking my data on this and the latest microwave pass shows no signs of a eye wall cycle any time soon.
1044. Dragoon
Okay, it was in between our numbers. Around 2 N.
It will be interesting to observe what happens with the eye. Steve Gregory's blog a few hours ago implied that another eyewall replacement cycle was likely at some point.

I sincerely hope that it does occur, and does so while Katrina is climbing on board the continent.
i am in school to get my degree as we speak. sorry i could not have it any time sooner but i guess thats my fault
1047. Manny
Very well, Lefty. I'll leave it at that.
but still damn low dragoon, prior to that storm they never thought one could form that low. exception to every rule. thats why weather is so unpredictable
yes we will leave it at that.
1050. Selu
WunderDogg...

So much for this new move toward privitization of former governmental responsibilities.

Do you remember hearing several months ago that TPTB wanted to ditch NOAA and privitize it? That scared the bejezus out of me. I hope this new privitization policy never goes that far.

I don't think I have ever seen a GOES12 infrared with as much white intensity as it has right now.
1052. Dragoon
Yes it was a freak occurrence.. and as you said.. a doughnut hurricane could defy the typical laws that tend to govern doughnut hurricanes.

We'll see what happens over the next day.
the 5am disscussion hinted at the fact they do not know nor can they forcast if another eye wall cycle will occur prior to land fall. all forcast models now forcast the intensity to be a cat 5 after 24 hrs. they have shown some weaking prior to landfall to coorespnd with another cycle but their confidence in this intensity forcast is fairly low
1054. Manny
As large as the eye is right now, it is not what is considered a 'doughtnut' hurricane. The surrounding area of convection is too large.
we should get another vortex message here soon guys. she is probly a cat 5 and would not be supprised to see a centralpressure below 930mb
I have just craped in my pants....east tn can NOT handle a cat 2 hurricane..holy @#$%^! and we only have 72 hours to prepare...OMG!
not so. did u not see isabeal as a doughnut. also ur reaching for things to prove me wrong when all u need todo is sit back cuase we will know with time. this is one thing that u can predictr what u want and i can predict what i want and we can see who had a better handle on this
We will see between 900-910mb at landfall I think.

1059. Manny
Lefty,

It isn't a personal thing with you, I'm just pointing things out. If you guys want to call it a Krispy Kreme storm, by all means, feel free. I'm just pointing out that this is not what is considered a doughnut storm.

Hey, you're free to disagree. There's no problem with that. I'm not arguing, just stating something.
correction....117mph would be a freaking cat 3
1061. Selu
Manny, so what is your profession? Are YOU a meteorologist?

lefty has been a great source of information and links. He's a nice guy who points people like me to info they can use.

Please quit doing what you are doing. It's fairly obvious.
I know next to nothing about meteorology, but I have been reading and trying to follow along. I get the sense that this storm is unusual in several ways. I read somewhere that it was unusual that she could stay together and intensify as she did with her northern eyewall open for as long as it was. Or at least thats what I took from several of the updates I read.

Is my impression that Katrina is an out of the ordinary storm correct?
Selu: I know that this very site had mentioned some legislation that Sen. Santorum was pushing in a committee. AFAIR it would not allow NWC to release weather data to the public except in "times of emergency".

It actually stirred me to e-mail Sen. Bill Nelson here in Florida, who is, it turned out, also on that committee. He sent back a great e-mail. I think lots of angry Floridians who had just gone through Hurricane Season 2004 bent his ear plenty good.

The private weather firm Accuweather is, I believe, based in Santorum's state, PA, but of course we all know that part is pure coincidence.
and i respect that manny. this storm is a monster we can bith agree on that. even if she is not a doughnut the chances of her haveing another eye wall cycle are low. the eye is way to big and shows no signs of shriking. i am wating for the vortex message. she was really ellipticle earlier as she has been all day. i suspect she is rounding out and is about 30-35nm wide
srmary u are roght. she has defined all predictions and know thoiughts on cyclones. i am sure she will be studdied for years
Yeah lefty, the last frame on IR shows a more symmetrical eyewall feature.
Posted By: stmarylalady at 4:31 AM CDT on August 28, 2005.

Is my impression that Katrina is an out of the ordinary storm correct?

I think that is safe to say :O)
1068. Selu
Don't even get me started on that sick puppy Santorum. Don't even get me started. Are you aware of the story about him that is the absolute sickest? Can't go into it here, but suffice it to say that I was grossed out by it.
1069. iyou
Some good stuff just now on www.wdsu.com - a woman, don't know if she is a meteorologist, laying the cards on the table, being very direct about the situation-what is frightening is that some seem to think a hurricane is a bad thunderstorm...
Last year the eyewall of "Charlie" passed 2 miles NE of our house. It was an experience I would not wish on anyone. Highest wind here clocked in at 174 MPH. It is difficult to express to those in the potential path of Katrina what a totally life changing event they face and they need to do whatever is possible to get out of harms way. An added incentive to do so would be a quick look at the regional sat image of the gulf south of NOLA. Katrina covers a huge area and "direct hit" is irrelevant. The impact will be devastating across a wide area. As for the NOLA pols..they blew it and sadly their incompetence will be paid for in lives.
1071. Selu
Lefty, the meteorologist on the weather channel just tonight called her a "doughnut."

But perhaps Manny knows more about meteorology than the Weather Channel meteorologists.
I'm as dumbstruck as you Lawson, what on EARTH. A Cat 3 hurricane in Tennessee???? WTF
Selu: you have mail ;O)
1074. IKE
My gosh...I just woke up...it's making the turn..just to the right of the projected path. God what a monster. 145 mph winds!! Disaster waiting to happen.

Curious about the new GFS coming out soon?? The unreliable NAM shifted east.
1075. Dragoon
In spite of all the doomsday predictions, there are some hopes at weakening the storm.. such as dry air to the northwest.. and the possibility of shear from the approaching trough. I'm really hoping to see some of that dry air work its way in.
HEY EVERY ONE. I AMGLAD U SUPPORT ME AND HE WAS STATING HIS OPINION IN A NICE AND ORDELRY MANNER. I ACTUALLY APPRECIATE A GOOD DISSCUSSION. RIGHT NOW I COULD CARE LESS IF I AM RIGHT. MY MIND CAN NOT LEAVE THE FACT THAT THIS STORM WILL HURT ALOT OF PEOPLE. THATS THEY ONLY THING ANY OF US KNOW FOR SURE

thanyou manny and than you guys who support me
1077. ed2800
the 5 day forcast has it as a Cat1 in central Miss..?
Hey, Have all of you been up all night? I just woke up tp see that the pathh has been moved a little east.??
1079. Dragoon
A little east. Not enough to matter much.
Must be the computer model being flakey. The NHC 5 am update estimates at 48 hr it'd be right around the threshold for hurricane strength (which is still pretty impressive because 48 hr would be almoast 24 hr inland at this point)
yes most of us have been here all night. the track was shifted east about 5 miles. this storm is so big that shift is nothing. she will impact a huge area and cause grave destrcution
If this thing does what the models say...there will be MANY more deaths up here in TN than down in NO. We are not prepared..hell even informed, about hurricanes! I used to live in FL and have been through a couple...but..OMG..this is gonna be REALLY BAD!!!!!!
Relax, mrlawson. I really don't think you're going to have a cat 3 in Tennessee.
1084. IKE
It is gonna be bad!!! Pray that it weakens. Opal did...I live in the Florida panhandle. That one was bad enough. This one is unbelievable!!!
1085. Dragoon
mrlawson I'd pay more attention to the official intensity forecast rather than just ships. The official calls for a minimal tropical storm in central TN.. not a cat 3 hurricane.. it won't stay that strong that far inland.
1086. ed2800
I hope that 5 day cone is correct. If it is Tenn will NOT have cat 3 winds.
Man, I am about 80 miles to the east of this thing. I bet things are going to get bad for us too. Georges made a last minute jog to the east and hit real close to us. I this one does not do the same.
Does the differential between the NE and NW quadrant (in terms of intensity) hold up after the storm has moved inland? I would guess it wouldn't be as pronounced since the rotation would have decreased much so there wouldn't be as much of a relative difference on the two sides compared to the steering currents?
1089. IKE
If I was 80 miles east of the projected landfall..I'd leave.
must remind u. there is a live webcast from the cbs affiliate in no and will be live till its over. it is very informative and alot better than the national cable news that has not been folowing this closely. here is the link


Link
why is there so much more of her south of the eye now, what's that all about?
1092. ed2800
I'm 125 miles inland Alabama. Ivan was bad here. Hope this one stays away
ok...just read about SHIPS...only valid for over water...
/damn...scared the hell out of me! lol
Where are all of you? Your names are all familar to me now. I have seen them a lot over the past few days.
well when a strong storm like this is inland u will see alot of tornadoes in that ne quadrant. granted they are weaker than the moidwest tornadoes and shorter in life spn they tend to be some of the most destructive parts of a inland cyclone nomater the strengty. after ivan and charley we had tons of tornadoes here where i live in va it was nuts. also umust be weary of flooding. the number 1 killer in hurricanes nowadays in fresh watter inland flooding
I'm in San Diego, but grew up in Houston
I mean where do you live. I know lefty is in VA.
1098. Manny
Selu,

I'm a political science major; meteorology is obviously not my profession. I would like for you to inform me, however, of what exactly I was trying to do other than present an opposing viewpoint. I'm glad lefty has provided you with links, but that by no means gives anyone a pass at backing up their predictions. I was simply trying to find a factual basis for what lefty is saying.

As for knowing more than the meteorologists on TWC, I wouldn't be suprised if I did. :)

I think it will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle. Almost everything I have read along with the history of this storm tend to suggest that.

If you like, Selu, I can provide you with 'links' to the above information. That is your standard of determining who is a nice guy, correct?
1099. IKE
The new GFS is out it shifted slightly east!!

I'm in Defuniak Springs, Fl. 80 miles east of Pensacola.
1100. ed2800
Pine Hill Alabama,, Last 4 gulf storms have passed over my house. Need to break that trend bad..I'm 125 miles inland aprox.
iam va, lived thru a hurricane in hawaii when i was 2.


thast just a blowup of some more deep convection within her cdo. shows she is defenitly still getting stronger and a good indicator she is porbly close to if not at cat 5 status
Anyone know what the recent precipitation and river levels have been recently along the predicted inland path? Has it been raining alot out that way?
Pensacola here
I can not understand the map type model. Does it look like east into Mississippi?
Does anyone want to hear a quick story about one of the blogger on here? This was yesterday or night before last.
well the track would be n at landfall than turn towards the ne until she gets picked up by the westerlies and acclereated towards new england
1107. Dragoon
Special update. Winds at 150 mph now.
she is now a strong cat 4 with winds of 150 mphs recorded by a flight recon. she is gettign stronger and would not be suprised when they do their next pass intot he ne quadrant she is a cat 5.


...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KATRINA GAINS MORE STRENGTH...

...AT ABOUT 420 AM CDT... 0920Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 150 MPH. KATRINA REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

the update is based on a recon so we should get the full vortex recon soon I hope (plz plz plz)
and if i am not mistaken that was her first pass in to her and that wind was recorded in the nw quadrant. can't wait for her ne quadrant measurements
I kept seeing post from someone named goulerogue. I new that they were in Pascagoula, but I did not know where. I could not fugure out where they were. I was asking some questions about their location. Come to find out, it was my next door neighbor. We were both sitting at our computers reading this blog.
Posted By: EZMonster at 4:49 AM CDT on August 28, 2005.

why is there so much more of her south of the eye now, what's that all about?

I'm no meteorologist, but Katrina had a hard time with her north side, especially the northwest quadrant. Apparently there's a lot of inertia with these huge storms, and my guess is that all quadrants have been building steadily for a while now, and the north side just has had a lot further to go.

I think we all know that the guys who really do know weather are still marvelling at how well and quickly Katrina was able to strengthen with her convection and eyewall not all that complete.
lol now that funny
PascM, lol that's funny ;O)
lol thats pretty funny pasc
1116. Manny
Is it just me, or does the eye seem to be shrinking in the last few frames?

The eye shrinking would increse the wind speed, if I'm not mistaken.
We thought it was too.
she might be shrinking but you have toi renmebr it was ellipticle for hours so it would appear smaller when she rounds it out
1119. cwlkwss
Hi,

I think there is a detailed model or nhc forcast for predicted storm surge, where can I find this. I live in Ocean Springs, MS and the possibe storm surge here is my greatest concern at the moment.

Cwlkwss with family who will NOT leave NO (there is 0% they will leave so please no comments :(

Thanks
we will know all that with the next vortex message
Ike and Wunderdog: I'm in Destin. What do you think it will be like here if it does go in around projected path?
1122. Manny
Pasc,

That is pretty damn classic!
Last frames relative to what time, it has looked constant to me on the last 6 GEOS frames, but that's only about 2 hr
1124. Selu
I'm in Pike County, MS, on the LA/MS state line, about 90 miles due north of New Orleans, and about 60 miles due north of Lake Pontchartrain.
1125. IKE
Dam...it's a small world!!!

Winds at 150!@!@ Holy crap!
i mean goes12 frames
1127. kaneui
Even if Katrina jogs a bit to the east, you think NO could be just as devastated by north winds on the western edge of the storm blowing Lake Ponchartrain into the city center, or am I misreading something? With the size of this storm, maybe it won't make much difference...
where is destin located
1129. Selu
Pasc...
That is damned funny! LOL!
Baldwin, St. Mary Parish, La
1131. IKE
Destin will have tropical storm winds...gusty to probably 50 mph...maybe slightly higher. Hope it doesn't turn east of the projection!
1132. IKE
Destin is east of Pensacola...by 40 or 50 miles
440
URNT12 KNHC 280951
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/09:21:10Z
B. 25 deg 32 min N
087 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 054 deg 144 kt
G. 326 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 8 C/ 3052 m
J. 20 C/ 3055 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E04/30/25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 144 KT NW QUAD 09:16:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 331 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.

wow look at the poressure. 915mb also the eye is a little smaller but still elipticle and no smaller than it has been all day.

1134. IKE
DAM!!!!

915!!!!!
do u guys think she will break 900mb's, also her pressure is currently in the cat 5 range. her winds are probly alot higher in her ne quadrant so the next pass we will have a cat 5
1136. Selu
OMFG. LEFTY! SHE'S NOW A CAT 5!

I'M ONLY 90 MILES NORTH OF NEW ORLEANS. I'm just now starting to wonder if I should leave my little cabin in the woods. :-(
915, that my friends is a powerful powerful storm
1138. IKE
below 900? It might. That's incredible and awful as well!
i wouldleave.get ur stuff togethr and get out. u have a little more time cause ur so far north but why test fait
What does everyone thing we will see 80 miles east of this storm? Pascagoula is located on the Gulf of Mexico.
1141. Selu
166 MPH and 915 mb. This could be worse than Camille.
StMaryLady, Franklin here - have you heard of many people in our area leaving? I realize that our gov. officials are waiting to make decisions. take care, stay safe
they now began there secodn pass. we will see a cat 5 in about an hour or less
1144. IKE
Selu...I would leave NOW!
Ike! I'm praying that it doesn't come east, but of course don't wish this thing on anyone.....
Selu: I'm afraid so, too. Especially since this storm covers a much larger area than Camille--and there's much more on the coast than in the 1960s.
1147. Manny
The eye is definetly getting smaller. I'll wait for the recon to report on whether or not there are concentric eyewalls. IF there are, you can bet on another eye wall replacement cycle. Maybe not though, I don't know.

I wish we had radar coverage of this storm so we could really tell.

She's a monster, though. ZERO doubt about that.
1148. Selu
I'm calling friends right now. None of them believe it. They had all gone to bed before she hit Cat 4.

No one here had even considered a Cat 5 dead-on hit of New Orleans.

This is amazing. Simply amazing.
1149. IKE
80 miles east of the storm....it will be to Hurricane force winds in gusts...not good at all!
depends on track but this thing will affect a huge area so ask your self do i feel safe. can u take a direct hir, u will be in the dreaded ne quadrant, u need toprepare to leave if u do not feel safe. i expect u will see significant damage from this but not as bad as those closer to the landfall
1151. Dragoon
Yes I agree with lefty.

Those 150 mph winds are based only on flight winds from the NW quadrant. The winds in the NE quadrant will be stronger.

Katrina is a Category 5 hurricane right now. Let us all hope that this pressure does not go any lower.
last recon said elipticle so no concentric eye yet
Selu: please get the hell out of there.
1154. kaneui
hmmm...wunderground had Katrina at 87.4W at 09 GMT, and lefty's latest at 9:21 had the eye at 87 deg 20 min...is that nearly identical, or are we starting to see a slight shift to the northeast?
1155. IKE
Where are you MUFFINANNE?
440
URNT12 KNHC 280951
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/09:21:10Z
B. 25 deg 32 min N
087 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 054 deg 144 kt
G. 326 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 8 C/ 3052 m
J. 20 C/ 3055 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E04/30/25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 04
MAX FL WIND 144 KT NW QUAD 09:16:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 331 / 11NM
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.


see the m section. the e is for elipitcle so it would still be 12-24 hrs for her to begin a eye wall cycle, by than she would be making landfall
1157. Dragoon
Pray for an eyewall cycle. That appears to be the only thing that will lessen Katrina's strength now.
the previuse position was an etimate, this is a recon fix from inside the eye. plus the eye wobles. she is on a wnw heading at 10 mph
1159. cwlkwss
PascMississippi posted:
"What does everyone thing we will see 80 miles east of this storm? Pascagoula is located on the Gulf of Mexico."

It is obvious the winds will be here... Anyone? Is there a projected storm surge model? Please :)
Lefty,
What link did you get that from?
1161. Manny
Do they have a conformation of 166mph winds? The winds may not have caught up with the pressure drop yet.

Jesus. Why is anyone still in NO? I don't understand that.
1162. iyou
All of you - this is a good site for information - http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL10 - i am in Toronto, Canada.
i can tell u u will see a storm surge of 15-25 ft if u are in the ne quadrant and it could eb higher. also don't forget there will be waves ontop of the surge and some of the latest wave reports are 45ft, now that seems unlikley but i would expect waves higher than 20ft is a good bet
1164. IKE
I would leave NO!! I would leave if I lived on the Mississippi coast. Mobile MAY be okay.
1165. IKE
Waves are 35 ft....260 miles south of Panama City
well the last advisory was 5 hrs after the last recon so it was estimated. but here is a link


Link
I keep hearing NE quadrant. How far east should we expect to see this NE quadrant cover. Is that just NE of the eye or withing the 80 miles east of the eye?
1168. IKE
If your 80 miles from the eye...it will be bad...gusts to Hurricane force in squalls.
1169. Valence
I told you guys Katrina would do something interesting while I was a work. I almost stained my pants (in the bad way) when I got home and saw the winds up to 145. (Of course, with the previous pressure readings, we should have expected that)

And Lefty - have you been to bed yet!?!?!
its as far east as the storm is from the center and north of the center. the further u away from the center the less u will see but ur likley hood of seeing a tornado grows. iwill give u a link to the wind radii so you can get and idea of how far out reaching this storm will be

Link
1171. IKE
Plus if your only 80 miles east...what if it shifts east of the track?
I'm in Destin. Behind Destin Commons.
1173. cwlkwss
Thank You,
muffinanne, I know Ike already answered you, but you should be fine over in Destin as long as the storm doesn't jog east.

Just keep an eye on it.

Remember too that even after it strikes land it could be dangerous over that way (and this way). Even Georges, which wasn't that much by the time it got around Pensacola, was a scary ride for me. (Georges came ashore in Mississipi, then cut straight east a bit north of our latitude).

'Course I was in a little old shack at the time.
1175. ed2800
Im 125 miles north of Mobile in small brick home.Am i ok?
valence winds 150 pressure 915mb and i took a napp around 8a dn got up at midnight. have u seen that large eye yet
cwl...Here is a link to a storm surge map.Link
cajngranny, no i haven't heard of anyone leaving from franklin/baldwin, but that doesn't mean a few haven't. traffic on 90 west bound was heavy last night and lightened up and it's heavy again. but it is flowing smooth so far.

i reckon that traffic is coming from terrebonne and lafource.

I work at the police dept in baldwin, the parish officials are having another meeting at 10am, so you should hear something by 11 or 11:30. If not give the p.d. a call and find out what's up.

u should be safe but only u can determoine that. i will tell u u will see heavy rain and some strong winds. how string depends on the track of the storm. here is a link to the wind radii and also listen the the local news in ur area for any precautions u should take

Link
I know IKE, I should probably leave. We plan on staying in a big old house that has taken many storms. I stayed in this house during Frederic. It is about 8 - 10 miles from the coast.
1181. Valence
And not to scare anyone along the Gulf coast, but Katrina WILL get stronger!

Check out the pocket of high octane fuel that she is about to pass over. Will she sustain this soon to be incredible instensity all the way to the coast? Lets hope not, but sometimes they do (Camille).

And Left, if she starts another eyewall cycle at around noon today, wouldn't that mean it would be completed about the time she makes landfall? Or should we be expecting a rapid increase in forward speed.
1182. Valence
Lefty-

The eye is ridiculous! And yeah, i was watching TWC when they reported the new recon data. Almost choked.

Im wondering if she can break 900.
I know that they will evacuate my area. I live about 2/10ths of a mile from the beach. I will surely not be staying at home.
forward speedwould increase. we would need to see that concentric eye wall strt soon for that cycle to have much ompact on the storm. the eye is way to big to collapse anytime soon if a second or third eye wall did form.some storms when they peak out have more than one eye wall and do not go into a cycle. at this point it is to hard to even forcast thta. all i can say is that she shows no signs of that happening anytime soon
ed2800, the only thing I'd worry about in your situation (assuming Katrina doesn't jog east more than expected) would be tornadoes. (That is, you're not in an especially flood-prone area; if you are, maybe you should leave.) I'm worried about tornadoes myself here in Pensacola, but I'm staying (besides, I always worry about tornadoes. I hate tornadoes).
1186. kaneui
current satellite view and expected strengthening looks like Katrina is materializing as the dreaded "perfect storm"....
all signs point to her geting alot stronger befor she would weaken and how far would she weaken? also did u notice the recon was only from the nw quadrant. wait till we get that ne quadrant recon
1188. Valence
And not to harp on this, because I was late to the bandwagon of a Cajun landfall, but everyone in the NO city and LA state emergency management department should be fired! Why the hell are there still people in NO! The superdome can't hold them all.

FYI - a friend from work is in the Nat'l Guard, and his until got called up. Headed over to the Big Easy.
Thanks Wunderdog and Ike. I can always go to my mother's house today if things start looking worse for us. She is inland 75 miles Northeast of Destin. Ever heard of Graceville? Be safe.
here is a link to the latest micorwave data. no signs of any otehr eye walls yet. so i say with a sick feeling in my stomach 160-180 can be expected at landfall

Link
1191. ed2800
Thanks Wonderdog...Im not in a flood prone area, and can move family too a concrte water plant where i work if that will be ok...im just not sure of a cat 5 never been in one..only ivan
here is a link to the morphind loop for the last 24 hrs. it shows how the storm reorganised into what we see now and the internal structure of the storm. this is just like radar and really interesting check it out please


Link
1193. hmfynn
I know no one can tell, and that no one should be using this information as their basis for whether to leave or not, but does the increase in forward speed and the trof supposedly being in place now look better or worse for that jog to the east we've been waiting for? Have the chances of this thing hitting west of New Orleans in central Louisiana gone down a little?
1194. kaneui
Who will be around in NO to film Katrina when the surge and waves come crashing into the city? Jeff Murrow? In spite of the horrific destruction, the footage should be incredible...
(Just hope it isn't as bad as the models have shown it could be.)
1195. Valence
I think there are going to be a lot of broken coffee cups in New Orleans this morning as people wake and find out that Katrina was a little busy overnight
right now ur best bet is the nhc track. all signs point to this being a very high confidence track and the one thing about big storms like this thye are a little easier to forcast
1197. IKE
Yeah...I've written insurance on folks in Graceville. Been there...that's a sage place to be in this...hopefully.
thast why i am waching the live news cast from no. its been on live and will be on live till the storm is over. here is the link

Link
Could someone beside me tell the people of Mobile to prepare, that this storm like Dennis and Ivan could wobble east. At this moment most of my friends are thinking we will only get tropical force conditions. I keep trying to tell them that you don't know until landfall where the storm will end up, they seem to forget that we dogged the bullet from both of the last hurricanes that were projected to hit mobile dead on from a wobble to the east.
food for fact. 915mb is lower than andrew at peak intensity and would be at this point the second strongest storm behind camile to hit the us
1201. Valence
Lefty - how long do you really think they're going to be able to broadcast?
1202. Selu
Valence. Emergency Management has been privatized by the Bush team...it's now a part of Homeland Security and contracted out to a private company that's not even located in the Big Easy, but in Baton Rouge.

Read this link. It's very informative. You can't blame on the mayor what the mayor can't control. http://www.ieminc.com/Whats_New/Press_Releases/pressrelease060304_Catastrophic.htm

Perhaps, after this tragedy, people will see the folly of privatization of formerly governmental agency responsibilities.

Oh, and as I said before, each state's National Guard, in the past, has played a tremendous role in evacuating people from metro areas, and also in protecting the belongings of those people who have been evacuated until they could return. That is partly what the National Guard was designed to do. Where's most of the Louisiana National Guard? In Iraq. Just another cost of the war in Iraq will be the lack of services provided on the homefront for citizens who need those services, mostly in the form of the protection of life and property.
tell ur friend sthat even with the nhc track they will see winds af atleast cat3 or higher and gusts unimaginable
Where are you speaking of lefty?
1205. Selu
Valence...LOL about the coffee cups. Yes, most of those people went to bed last night with a Cat 3 storm, thinking they had plenty of time to prepare.

They will certainly be surprised.
i don;t know. i don't see them staying on once the winds hit cat 3 strength
StMaryLady, Thank you
Even though we're in the western edges of the cone, I believe we should be ok. I sure hope so, anyway. I will be waiting for the outcome of the 10am meeting.
people in mobile alabama.
1209. Valence
The longer Kat stays WNW, the less likey Mobile is going to get hurricane conditions. But with a storm like this, I wouldn't be taking any chances.

And, holy batcave Left, you're right! Andrew was only measure at what, 918-920?
PEOPLE OF MOBILE, PREPARE.

Good grief, with this monster out there, nobody on or near the coast should be ignoring it. The forecasters seem to have a pretty good handle on it, but a storm will fool you. Just ask the people who got hit by Charley, or Georges, or my area with Ivan and Dennis.
thanks lefty-but to make some see the light could be impossible!
Heck, I am about 45 miles west of mobile. So you think that we will see Cat 3 winds 45 miles west of Mobile.
yeah thats about right valence. the guy on the no newscast said to be honest even if she had an eye wall cycle prior to landfall he see her not weaking much at all and that it is unlikley one would occur prior to landfall
Hi Mobile, Sure this storm could wobble!!! Bu even if it doesn't, things don't look like fun aroun here. At least no power for a while and some trees down.
1215. IKE
45 miles west of Mobile...not good..
u never klnow. if u are in the cone or near the cone u should be prepared and tune into ur local news as they will give u the best info on ur specific location. that is the best info i can give you on ur safety
mobile0504, you're right. Things were looking very bad for Mobile during Ivan until right at the end when he decided he liked the looks of Gulf Shores--or at least felt that it needed rearranging.
This is going to be awful. 915 wow.
they should be nearing the southern eye wall on their inbound leg so we willprobly have anoither vortes message soon. than they will enetr the ne quandrant and we will know whats going on
SayMoBeel-did you notice that yesterday there was not the Mad rush of the stores- Do you think the people around us are prepared?
1221. ed2800
We live 125 north of Mobile..120 southeast of Montgomery..We dont have local news. montgomery will prob be ok..while Mobile could be bad so we will get mixed message here in Rural Al.
alot of people including the local govt slept on this storm. i blame everyone. they will all be trying to scrabmle to catch up so stay tuned to you local news if u r in a possible dangerzone. i want to help asmany peopleas i can but understand, i am just a guy with a computer. u need to be watching your local news for local specific data as to what u should be doing
So often I have seen sudden "jogs" at landfall or a huuricane change course seemingly to miss an island. Is there a scientific explanation for this? Its happened too many times to be a fluke.
ed2800, I've never been in a cat 5 either. Ivan was bad enough! The way it's looking right now, you won't *be* in a cat 5, but you could be in a cat 2 or 3 for a while. But we all know how tricky these things can be. Keep an eye on it, and use your best judgement. Be safe.
Local news normally does 24hr coverage, at this moment, no news is on, only regular programming.
1226. IKE
Most of the models have shifted ever so slightly east..LA to MS landfall..but SW Alabama may get hit hard too..
hi all..what a great blog site.. i wanted to know if you think i shoudl leave. i am in Hattiesburg which is 100 miles NE of New Orleans, about 60 miles north of Gulfport/Biloxi. i am sure we will get high winds. if this thing does hit NO hattiesburg will be on the NE side of the storm..

so should i leave? i have been up all night watching the storm.
in ur location i will do my best to help. you will probkly be ok but u must make sure u take precaution in case u lose power for an extended period of time. make plans for this and watch the news u normally watch. if u live in a mobile home and in the path u need to go to a shelter or a more secure location
1229. Valence
Thats the one bad thing about getting a pretty confident forecast track. The people on the outer edge just thing they are going to get a thunderstorm. (Even though, every 5 seconds you hear someone say that a hurricane "is not just a point")

Thats what happened with Charlie last year. Every projection kept saying Tampa, Tampa, that most people around here were unprepared (including me). Had he not wobbeled BACK to the N just before landfall, the damage would have been worse.

Mobile is still under the gun - prepare as if she's gonna hit you head on, and be thankful when she doesn't.
1230. Selu
Hi, Golden Eagle! I'm a USM alum, myself. I'm in Pike County.
1231. kaneui
anyone know the latest estimate for landfall time?
1232. IKE
True...if you're in Mobile...pray it doesn't turn northeast before landfall in LA.
stay posted to your local news channel. to the guy north of gulfport u need to asses ur situation and determine if u feelsafe in ur home. also remebr ur family might be depending on you like if u have kids. also prepare to be with out power for an extended period of time. u need to prepare for the owrse and pleas stay tuned to you local news no matter how unlocal it is
hi Selu.. so pike county is like McComb? can anyone tell me how safe i am in Hattiesburg??? lets assume this things makes landfall at a cat 5.. should i leave or no? im afraid to get on highway 49.. its probably PACKED right now going northbound.
landfall time is et late morning moday. the weather will deteriate well befor then. also a shift in the track will change that estimate
Valence, That is exactly our attitude. I hope evryone takes that advice. If your staying in the cone, pick up meds and 1st aid.
i don;tknow where that is give me more data so i can give u some advice
Good morning Lefty. What an eye!!! What's the prognosis? Still calling for a cat 5 at landfall? How wide is that eye?
After 14 Hours I have finally arrived in Austin, TX... contra-flow was not announced properly and thus I was diverted to I-55 to Mississippi... 5 hours to get to Baton Rouge....

Hotels here are packed... New Orleans is in for a long one.. and a friend of mine is stuck downtown in a hotel with no way out.. I will pray for her tonite....

Sadly I am thinking I will not ever see the beautiful city of NO again...
USMGOLDENEAGLE Hey Hattiesburg :O) Pensacola here.

People at the same latitude as you in Alabama had a rough time from Ivan. Like Lefty says, if you're in a mobile home or something, find another place to be. I rode out Ivan in a brick house much closer to the gulf (but not *on* the gulf) and we came through okay. But if this thing's going where it looks like it's going, you may be without power and maybe even water for quite a while; travel may be tough too.

At the very least, stock up on water, canned goods, batteries, all that stuff now, and encourage your neighbors to do so. The worst that can happen is you spend a few bucks on things you don't really need right away (but can still use). The worst that can happen otherwise is you don't have them and you need them. That's miserable.
1241. Valence
hey SayMoBEEL-

Believe it or not, the center actually tries to stay over water as long as possible. The atmospheric conditions are different over land, even an island, and that can help to push or pull a storm away from you.

Check out the landfall points for last years storms:
Punta Gorda, FL (Charlie)
Stuart,FL (Frances & Jeanne)
Gulf Shores, AL (Ivan)
Pensacola, FL (Dennis-05)

Take a look at a map of those areas and tell me if you notice anything interesting. They all are on at the edge of bay, inlet, harbor, etc. Interesting, huh?
jax 150winds 915mb pressure and that wind was from the nw quadrant. waiting for the ne quadrant numbers and she probly is a cat 5 already. more and more likley a cat 5 will be making landfall. i knew you would like the eye
1243. kaneui
thx, lefty... local NO newscast is now telling people landfall will be around noon, Monday.
Yep. Hatti, Ivan was bad for folks at your lattitude. I think most of it was tornados though.
hi lefty.. here is Hattiesburg...

Hattiesburg

so what do you think?
I am also in Hattiesburg and just turned it to Channel 4. They are running a infocommerical with a small window in the corner of the screen that says Katrina winds are 115! You would think SOMEBODY would have updated that by now.
omg this is now the monster you said it would be. This will be way worse than Andrew
wow u need toleave. u will experience winds of ctaostrophic nature. call ur local govt or poilic info line for info on evac routes. u need to prepare now. get off the computer. u have time but not much
Not to quibble, but Dennis actually came on shore east of Pensacola, the next county over, around a place called Navarre.

I should know because I left Pensacola to hang out with my folks and the eye past directly over us (not in Navarre; further inland).

Yup, I "evacuated" right into the path of the eye :O)

1250. Valence
Southern -

Talk about sleeping on a hurricane!

Even the graphics guy is dozzing off at the switch.
usm my last post was for u man please leave


i don't think i will getting any sleep anytime soon
Can anyone explain the storm surge? The predict 15-25 feet in my area. My neighborhood is about 13 feet above sealevel. I am about 2/10ths of a mile from the beach. I will not be at home during this. Should I expect the surge to make it that far?
where abouts are you in Hattiesburg Southern? i live in the Lamar Park area.. close to Chili's. how bad do you think we will get it?

hi there wunderdogg.. i was that was last weekend, well close to ya anyway.. in Orange Beach, docked at Zeke's to do deep sea fishing.. it was great, we had some great catches..
1254. Valence
Wunder -

I actually wasn't sure about Dennis, but I was too lazy too look it up. I was hoping no one would notice.

:-(
yes u will see some flooding. the ocean will rise 15-20 feet from its current level. than u will have wind driven wiaves up to 35 ft high on that surge. get all ur important things to the highest level of your house and get out as soon as you can
I live in the small subdivision behind turtle creek mall just before 4th street. I think it will get pretty bad - maybe 100 miles per hour winds.
leftty, evacuation routes are simple. I -59 north towards Meridian, or Hwy 49 north to Jackson. Unfortunately i am afriad to look outside and see how much traffic ison there. i know lots of people have said go east or west but many are headed north through Jackson or Hattiesburg. The Weather CHannel has mentioned Hattiesburg a few times now.
hattiesburg will see winds near cat 4 or 5 strength depending on landfall location and strength. not tomention the gusts. inland dmage of a major hurricane is the most understated part of the storm. this will not be just a coastal situation
1259. IKE
The storm is going just east right now of the projected path. Appears to be moving NW.
Thanks Valence, There was also a small island off Cuba that Ivan "traced". I have also seen the same phenomenon with southeast LA. Interesting! (raising one eyebrow)
1261. Valence
Pasc-

The storm surge is how far UP the water will rise about normal levels, not how far inland. The slope of land around you has a lot to do with determing how much rise you will get.

From what you described, if conditions are right, you're house will be a fish bowl. Sorry. Glad to hear you are not staying there - where are you going?
How wide is the eye? Is this the donut you were worried about yesterday?
the weather channel is updating OFTEN -- it is still moving WNW...

i dunno if i have time to leave now..i dont know how bad the traffic is.. i would have to drive around to see..
Valence - you bring up a good point. My husband and I wondered if Mob and New Orleans have pushed away approaching storms because of the water flows temp diff from the Mobile Rivers or Mississippi Rivers respectively.

Anyone have thoughts on this?
I lived in Gulfport during Camille and remember having to leave our home and running to a n'bor's house that had a boom shelter. The "new" shoreline was up to the railroad tracks and the winds were unthinkable! Knew several people that lost their lives. It's a calm morning here in Biloxi and I pray that people aren't taking this likely! We now live on the water of the Back Bay and are leaving to my husband's office which is well built.In Georges = water didn't get near the home - but with this one - time will tell. I can't say enough - this is a very scary situation - Plan for the worse - pray for the best!
1266. Selu
USM, if you can leave, go. Where will you go? All hotels are booked. You won't find a vacancy until you get to Tennessee or far north Alabama.

Do you have family--can you stay with them? Hattiesburg is going to take a beating. Georges was bad enough (in 1998); Katrina is going to make Georges look like a Hub city cakewalk. You know that the forecast track puts Katrina heading north and then east, eventually over Hattiesburg.

If I were you, I'd get out. I don't know if you are a student or not, but your instructors will be very understanding if you miss a class because you evacuated. I'm going to guess, though, that classes will be cancelled all next week at USM, if not before Katrina landfalls, then certainly after.
Sorry to bug you Lefty. What is Mobile calling for as far as winds?
USM
Here is a link for winds projected for Katrina

http://hurricanealley.net/Storms/12LFWS.html
1269. Valence
If I was still in NO at this point, I think I'd just buy some scuba gear and try to swim for it. Up the Mississippi probably. The whole state may be under water soon anyway.

Sorry guys, the misses says im waking her up with the webcast and heavy typing...gots to go

I'll be back here later, for sure.

PS - WTF is "heavy" typing?
i doubt it is a tru doughnut but the point is the bigger the eye the longer the stregthening process will be. she would not collapse till she was about 9nm wide. she is still 30 miles wide so the chances of a eye wall cycle helping ot weaken the storm is highly unlikley
lol Valence, no sweat, it's all the same to people who aren't from around here.

USMGOLDENEAGLE, I play in a band in Orange Beach on Fridays--place called the Loose Moose--I hope it survives this hurricane season.

You know, you're far enough inland you don't have as much to worry about as us coasters, but I've been thinking what I said about Ivan. It was bad for people up in Alabama around your level. But Ivan was only a Cat. 3. If Katrina hits as a 5, and keeps heading where she's heading, it's going to be really rough for you.

I know evacuating is a PITA but if you're not in a strong home or if you're in an area that could flood you will want to think about leaving.
160?!?!?!
We will be staying about 8 - 10 mile inland. I stayed in the house that we are going to during Frederic. From what I remember, it was not fun!
1274. IKE
Winds at 160!
i dunno jax but she will see strong winds and a jog in the track u could be closer to that eye wall and it could get bad. there will be some storm surge and some flooding
uh oh. 30nm. This will be real bad without an eyewall replacement cycle to slow it down. Damage will be astranomical. I am praying for a reduction in speed.
yeah i told ya she was a 5 wow
1278. IKE
Monile, Al.....gusts to Hurricane force tomorrow per the NWS.
I lived in Mobile for 15 years. I have friends I told to evac yesterday. I will call today and tell them talk to them again.
1280. Selu
Did y'all see Jim Cantorre freak out a second ago? Here's basically what he said.

If you are waking up this morning and you haven't been watching the tv and monitoring this storm, you should have. As soon as I get through with my live feeds, I'm outta here. I'm already making arrangements for where I will go. People don't remember Camille and can't even conceive of what a Camille type storm will do to this area. If you live on the coast, walk outside this morning, look around at landmarks and such. Remember it, because Tuesday morning it all will be gone.

here is my situation to all.. i have a brick home, solid brick, a carport for the car and when i bought the house(2 3 months ago) it was deemed to not be in a flood zone.

if i left i have family in Monroe, Louisiana.. which means traveling northbound on hwy 49 north then getting on I-20 WEstbound to Vicksburg MS then into Louisiana to Monroe. you can see where monroe is in the link that i gave earlier.. here it is again...

Hattiesburg/Monroe
1282. IKE
If I lived in Mobile///I think I would consider leaving.
Thats an interesting theory. I just feel like there is some kind of gradient (temp,pressure,etc.) causing "last minute jogs off the path.
1284. IKE
I saw Cantore...he's probably correct.
1285. Valence
One more interesting point before I go:

There have only been 3 category 5 storms to hit the US.

LABOR DAY (FL Keys, 1935)
CAMILLE (Pass Christian, MS, 1969)
ANDREW (Homestead, FL, 1992)

The center of KATRINA has passed, or will pass, within 50 miles of each of those landfall points.

Adios for now .. .

JV
that will not be much better. maybe just a little better. this stor is a cat 5 man. this will be like no other hurricane. she will bring damaghe well inland. u need to hed north not go east. call ur family and tell them to head north as well.
Those of you that know weather - do you think it will jog to the east before shore? I know they took it out because of changes - but what are your thoughts? I know Biloxi is under the gun - but what size gun depends on track.
also i am not a student. i actually work at the Stennis Space Center which is just on the other side of I-10 like 10 minutes from Slidell,Louisiana.. so i KNOW i will be off work on Monday... do you think i would be off work on Tuesday too??

Katrina now cat 5 with winds @ 160 MPH. wow.. what was Camilles Sustained winds??

i dont remember 1998.. can anyone remind me?
1289. Valence
You know a storm is bad if Jim Cantore says "Get me the **** Out Of Here!"

Ok, really, im done.
1290. IKE
I think it will turn NE but it probably reaches southest LA before doing so. Just my opinion.
dou not understand your town might not betehr tuesday? at best u will not have power for weeks and the damage would be extensive
1292. Manny
I don't even know what to say...

My heart goes out to everyone stuck in NO without a way out. legalities be damned, they need to move out people NOW.
Camille was 190 with higher gust. Over 200 was recorded before the site when down.
omg all sh** has hit the fan.
1295. Selu
GoldenEagle...It will take you at least 12 hours to get to Monroe. Traffic is creeping on i-55 right now, and it's in contraflow (all lanes going North).

Honestly, if I were you, I'd stay put. Do you have supplies? Spend this morning at Walmart, Dollar General, and Big Buck (if it's open) picking up lamps, oil, propane, candles, water, ice, and such.

Might want to stop by Lowe's or Home Depot and see if there are any generators there. It'd be as cheap for you to buy a generator as it would be for you to evacuate.

You live in a brick house, your car is in the garage. I think you'll be ok. Considering how nightmarish the traffic situation is (and it's only going to get worse) I'd stay put. Worst case scenario, you could always go to a shelter on USM campus if you have to.
Pasc. We were on Perin Rd (at the lowest point off Demetropolis Rd.) for Freddie. !We had 15 trees down with 6 on the roof. Not looking forward to this one.
usmg, ur town may not be there any more. this storm will change everything
well i wouldnt be traveling on I-55, only for a few miles to geton I-20 to head Westbound.. but the traffic might be jammed.

i have 4 gallons of water, bread, cereal and milk that i picked up today but i dont have a flashlight or candles. i hope that home depot/lowes would have a generator.. how much do they cost.. does anyone know??

thanks..


578
URNT12 KNHC 281120
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/11:04:10Z
B. 25 deg 39 min N
087 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2310 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 141 deg 153 kt
G. 046 deg 018 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 25 C/ 3057 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 1 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1712A KATRINA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 153 KT NE QUAD 10:58:50 Z

wow 910 thats low and the winds still need to cath up to that

lookslike the eye is only 25 nm, if she gets any stronger befor she has a chance to undergo an eye wall cycle it won't matter at all



told ya that ne quadrant had thos stronger winds. this thing is a monster
USM, generators run 550 to 800 dollars.
1302. IKE
Good God 910 mb....I guess it dropped 6 more millibars
1303. Manny
If she starts an ewrc sometime today, it will probably end before landfall. She'll then start to reintensify once again. I don't think there's any saving grace for the people in the path of the storm.
cantore just said to look around cause what u see u won't recognise come tuesday morning
yeah i feel u many but my point was she is gojng to be so strong it would not even matter anymore. she will be in the 170-190 range in the next few hours specially with that pressure
1306. IKE
Cantore is right on...this is an absolute monster...unbelievable...gotta go...back this afternoon.
i dont have that much money.. heck i need to save that money on a house deductible if my house is damaged which is $1000.

so i have 2 options: look at the link i gave below to Monroe. i can go up Hwy 49 north til it meets I-55..then ill be on I-55 for about 8 miles until i get to I-20 then go west to Monroe. I can also take Hwy 98 West towards McComb and Natchez and it would take longer to get to Monroe but i could get there that way.

the other option is to wait it out, get some candles and flashlights and hope the electricity doesnt go out..then just wait.
USM, a generator and a window unit AC are the two best purchases I've made in a long time. Used every time the power has gone off for any length of time. They more than paid for themselves during Ivan.
ok, i am officially scared for people now. Ignorance is bliss. If this thing doesn't weaken, it will be real bad. I bet only slabs will be left from some structures
1310. Manny
Lefty, by this point regardless of any ewrc, it IS too damn strong. Best case scenario is probably a cat 3, and a strong one at that, at landfall. And thats an unlikely best case scenario.
FEMA will purchase a generator for those in cat zone.
Valence! I got a great chuckle about the "heavy" typing..Nice to have something to lighten up about. Does anyone else besides me have a spouse that thinks you spend way too much time on this blog and other computer info on this storm? I guess I am the worry wort for the household.
!WOW!...morning... about to go back to bed but I think if you are in New Orleans, Mississippi or Alabama to even the Pensacola area, you need to think about leaving!

The latest GFDL model run has shift to where I think this thing will finally make landfall, the Alabama/Mississippi boarder.

But with a Cat. 5, that makes little difference.
1314. Selu
You can pick up a small generator for a couple hundred dollars. Or a pretty nice one for about 400.

If I were you, I'd stay put. What I was saying about I-55 also applies to 49 all the way up to 20. Remember, all those folks on 55 will be taking 20, too. Seriously, I would stay put, get supplies, and just prepared to not have power for a week or more.

JAX How do we get in touch with them?
USM, (go golden eagles) If a disaster area is declared in your area, FEMA will reimburse you for generator expenses. They will even help you buy a chainsaw.
I understand about the money. Short notice!!! If you decde to stay, avoid the candles. Many hurricane related deaths are due to fire after the storm.
1318. wxgssr
DAMN. Just woke up after 3-4 hour nap. We are Sooooo F'ed.

Radio folks trying to find a glimmer of hope in how it could fall to a 4 before landfall.


Southern, usually FEMA will set up shop in an area and give out the number over and over again. If you buy a gemerator, keep the receipt and show it to them when they show up in your area
1320. Dragoon
910 mb? Katrina is becoming ridiculous. This pressure just can't keep going lower. SOMETHING has to cause this storm to weaken before landfall, or there will truly be nothing left.
USMGOLDENEAGLE - Do not try hwy 49. You will sit for hours. If you come up I59 there is a good chance you will not be able to exit in H'burg to Hwy 98 or I59. They plan to block those exits to keep traffic moving.
USM Also get extra charcoal or gas for your bbq. That way u can boil water or cook food as it starts to thaw.
1323. Manny
radio folks? What radio are you listening to?
1324. Selu
USM, stay put.

It will take you an hour to go the ten miles from 49 to 55. Most of New Orleans will hit the highway this morning at 7:00. Last night, 55 was barely creeping, in Pike County. I went out to the overpass and made some photos.

Then, when you try to get on 20, it will take hours, because, remember, all of those people from NOLA will also be trying to get on 20.

It will be rush hour in Jackson, except 1000 times worse.

49 is pretty packed, from what I understand.

You live in a secure house. Just get supplies and ride it out.
This is scary, folks. I've rode out many hurricanes in my hometown of Pascagoula. I even survived Camille. This isn't another "Camille" yet, but it is a much larger storm, and will affect a much larger area than did Camille. The shelf water is so warm, I'm afraid to speculate on what will happen as this system approaches land. There are no westerlies to shear this system, as was the case with Camille. Without doubt, this is the scariest tropical weather scenario that I've seen since Camille.
Something else to remember - after Camille it was about a month before we got power and longer for safe drinking water. We had to go to a distributation area to get water. Put water in everything you have. It was some time before we had safe water to drink.
ok so just get flashlights? whats the probablity that the power will be out here? how do you i find out if we are in a disaster zone and how can i contact FEMA on how to get a generator from them??

go eagles is right! we were supposed to play Tulane next weekend but who knows what will happen..
1328. kaneui
Local NO news has been discussing the aftermath...NO could be underwater for WEEKS....if not from the levees bursting, then from all the rain that has nowhere to go...so staying in a building that will be surrounded by floodwaters for a long time doesn't sound very smart--no electricity, phone service, or way to get food....not a good idea! (BTW, if pressure drops below 909, will beat Camille; however, Gilbert was 888)
Please folks, if you have to run a generator during or after the storm, run it in a well ventilated area if at all possible. See Katrina's latest "victims" in Florida, although I'm not sure you could classify them as victims of the storm.
OHHH CRAP! I'm in Nashville and I'm totally freaked out. I grew up next to the MS/LA line, and I'm grieving for MS and LA right now. I even had my honeymoon in the French Quarter; my parents did too.

I'm glad I'm not in MS now. Andrew and Elena were bad enough; I can't imagine this. My parents went through Camille and Betsy; thankfully, they're living in Houston now.
1331. wxgssr
WWL am in NO...i live in Hancock County MS....just N of the 10...i will consider myself VERY fortunate if my house remais structurally sound Tuesday am.
1332. Selu
USMGOLDENEAGLES, I found a cool radio/tv/lantern/flashlight combo at McRaes...even has a weather radio on it. It's AC/DC. Only cost 30 dollars. If I were you, I'd go pick one up today.
1333. GetReal
Just wanted to check in with you fellow bloggers, I will be riding out Katrina 15 miles south of New Orleans. I am unable to leave due to my chosen profession as a law enforcement officer. My wife and two children, along with my two golden retrievers are currently enroute to Tallahassee to stay with in-laws. She left New Orleans at 0400 hours and is now 15 miles west of Pensecola. She advised me that traffic is moderate, but moving steadily at 60 mph. When and if I can I will make post of observations until internet service is lost.
wxg - Where in Hancock county are you? We have substantial property investment in the form of a plantation pine tree farm (of all things) just off 603. How close are you?
If you are a parent with children and thinking of staying - DON'T!!! I was young when I went through Camille and it will effect me until my death! You just can image the effect of this type of storm on young children!!!
ok guys i am back had to change my soin and get him a bottle
1337. GetReal
By the way, i hated to be agreeing with stormtop, and having to live through it.
1338. Manny
You're not still in NO are you? Are you planning on leaving????
GetReal you are a REAL hero. God Bless You!
Wade Guice....we need you!
what were the winds for Gilbert at 888 mb?

i do have a gas grill.. that is a good idea..the good news about if i lost electricity it would be in the daytime..so at least i would have "some" natural light, better than at night time.

thanks for the tips. so they are closing hwy98 west??

hey how many of you are in hattiesburg anyway.. looks like quite a few eagles on here :)
camile was 909mb and 190 mph. the winds in katrina are not near the preasuuser yet. she could be 180mph when tose winds hit the surface. just food for thought
1343. Manny
Wow. Part of me would love to go through a storm like this. Then again, part of me also - and a bigger part at that - likes to live. I think I'd leave and wait for a 'weak' storm to ride out.
USM, it's not a good situation, but there's a touch of hysteria here right now. Not surprising, considering the monster in the Gulf and the disaster that is looking for New Orleans.

I'll take anyone's bet, though, that Hattiesburg will still be there after Katrina.

As far as the price of a generator, my people picked one up for abour $400, but it was only 3000 watts, not what they wanted. It was barely adequate, but it's better to go for at least 5000 watts (probably 6-800 bucks, closer to 8 what with the storm coming).

You can contact FEMA on their Web site or 1-800-621-FEMA (3362). From what I've seen they'll cut you a check (for the generator and damages) after the storm. The main thing is to get registered ASAP once all is over and done with.

You also need more supplies.

Here's the thing. This storm could
weaken slightly. Ivan and Dennis did. It's possible it will begin an eyewall replacement cycle, or the trough to the north might begin introducing some shear, right before landfall.

But I would not bet my life on it. Right now, Katrina is looking like the storm of the century.

Being stuck in traffic when this thing comes over--I don't even want to think about it. So if you think you can make it to Monroe safely, I would say go. If not, stay in your nice brick home, and be prepared for, well, a real life experience.

I'm sorry I can't be more help, but I honestly don't know about that traffic situation. I don't want to be the one to send you off to get stuck in traffic during a Cat. 5 storm. I've heard those horror stories.

Since you're inland and not in a flood plain, the odds are you'll be okay in your house. But there are always tornadoes to consider. Check out the trees around your house, too.
They shouldn't close 98 west, just the access to it from I59. Don't know if/when they will. Huge traffic problems in h'burg with Ivan they are trying to avoid and keep traffic moving. I'm about 10 miles west of H'burg.
1346. wxgssr
Diamondhead, high ground in the back by the water tower. Mixed blessing...no surge or rain induced flooding, but the elevation will not do me any favors as to wind speed.

No favors at all. I am very concerned about the pioe trees in the back, and my overhang front porch providing a perfect grip for the wind to peel the entire roof off the house.
1347. GetReal
Manny if you are addressing me, the answer is NO, I can't. Worst yet, I will be south of New Orleans, outside the main Hurricane protection levees.
Guys -- could you please tell me where to find the updated model tracks?? I was looking at http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL122005, but I think he's been sleeping since the 11 p.m. update. I know things are shifting east, but I'd like to see it with my own eyes.

Any links?????
1349. Selu
Here's a photo of the GPX Radio/Lantern/TV I mentioned in the last post. Link
Who on this blog is in NO?? Where is storm top? Are you a prophet? lol
Gilbert had winds as high as 180 MPH as it near the Yucatan
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html
this is a modellink but at this time your best bet is the nhc track
1353. Selu
CHRIS--where on the MS state line did you grow up? That's where I am right now.
Link

model tracks
160mph gusts to 195
908mb
wnw 12
Thanks Lefty!!!!!
Dare I say it.....STORMTOP was right on!!!! unfortunately for many.
1358. GetReal
I will be exiting the chat in a few moments, just got off working a twelve hour shift. I now have to go board up my house the best I can. Luckily I have all the plywood pre-cut. Take it from me guys, it's a strange feeling to be working on your house you 20 years to pay for, and know that it may not be here Tuesday morning when the sun comes out. Yours prayers will be deeply appreciatted...
lowest pressure storm to hit the us was the 1935 unnamed staorm with a 892mb pressure
I'm from New Orleans, but we evacuated yesterday. We are in Baton Rouge, which appears to be safe enough.
Well everyone my shift is over and I have to go home and board up the house and clean up the yard and get a little sleep for work tonight.

I will probably be on later.
You have mine, GetReal. Take good care.
1363. Selu
USM folks and Hub residents...
Please go HERE and post so that we can see how many of us are present on wunderblog today.
I spent $806 including tax for a generator 24 hours prior to Dennis. Got a check for $837 from FEMA within a week. 5500 watt. They looked at my receipt, but apparently they had a standard reimbursement based upon wattage.
with 908 mb how much strength could the storm gain? 180? 190?

here are my plans and tell me what you think. no generators, just cant afford it. ill get gas for the grill, go to lowes/.home depot when they open and get a flashlight and batteries for my radio.

thats all i can do i guess..
1366. iyou
USMG - you'll need more than 4 gallons of water! make sure you have matches or lighters for your candles - batteries for portable radios - radio/walkman whatever - and cash money - maybe no atm's for a while.
Can someone explain to me how often a hurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle? when are we due for one? she looks so strong right now? my prayer is that she would have to replace about the time she would need to land. And we need to pray diligently for those people in NO...that they would all be able to get out of harms way. 910 pressure. That's Camille. Man.
1368. Dragoon
I keep looking at the satellite pictures trying to find some indication of a weakening trend.

Hopefully this will be like most Cat 5s and not maintain this intensity. Hopefully, somehow.. dry air.. shear, anything. Something needs to happen.
firsty br is not safe at all. this storm will flaten towns.

secodn usually when the eye is arounf 9nm. this eye is 25 so it might to undergo one around the time of landfall. she will continue to stregthne till that time and i expect these winds to rise dramatically if this pressure keeps dropping.
1370. GetReal
Good bye for now, I'm going to finish preperations and go get some sleep for the long night ahead.
They still haven't ordered a mandatory evacuation in New Orleans: What are they waiting on?
WunderDog..I am in Pensacola as well. What can we expect, if anything, from Katrina?
baton rouge is not safe. you are not far enough north. u need to continue north as far as you can ghet
Bye all will be back on later. Want to back up my computer and genealogy files and finish other prep
1375. newinfl
Lefty, do u think that kat wil go thru another restructure? looks like that would be the only thing that could slow it down a little.
at 908 how big and strong can she get?
ts force winds and a great threat of tornadoes in pensecola but could be worse
Nagin is asleep at the wheel and the national media will be criticizing his whole admin for some time after this is all over.... (remember Jefferson parish acted quicker)


Anyone want to place a bet on if this will be a record for Federal Aid to a State in one Disaster?



1379. wxgssr
Gotta eat and finish the yard clean up stuff...back later.

This is going to be ugly....seemingly irrational thoughts going through my mind about what this could mean to the area and the country...and then i realize they are rational.

Damn.
pcolamaggie, maybe loss of power, not like with Ivan or Dennis though. If the storm doesn't veer east, strong winds and lots of rain, but not as bad as what we've seen twice in the last twelve months already.

The thing I worry about is if the storm strikes land and then starts heading east a la Georges. As powerful as it is, it could be really bad for us then.

Mostly, though, I just expect some crappy weather and maybe the inconvenience of being without power for a while.
Yes...Baton Rouge is too far south...they are saying to go farther north than Jackson MS...(that is probably a stretch...but you get the idea)...this is a killer storm.
Thank you, Lefty...

How much could she lose in intensity if she did go through a replacement? How much do they usually lose? (sorry, haven't been following these religiously for years...although "this one will be one for the record books"...I guess we are writing history, so I guess no one really knows.)
My opinion is that Baton Rouge is MUCH safer than New Orleans, if that's the best you can do.
Posted By: RobertForsman at 7:06 AM CDT on August 28, 2005.

They still haven't ordered a mandatory evacuation in New Orleans: What are they waiting on?

The lawyers.
Skeet must have woken up. Here are the most recent runs of the models. Link

They are finally getting closer together, instead of further apart.
Finally went to sleep last night at 4:30 am (CDT) and awoke to my son telling me the storm was bigger at 6:30. OMG! This is huge!
Anyway, I saw that someone stated that the storm was shifting eastward (or the models were). Where was this found? Just curious as to what they are saying now. I've had a feeling that it would hit Mississippi or Alabama (maybe I've hoped some too. I would hate Mobile to get the worst of it as I'll be here, but I think the worst possible scenario would be it hitting New Orleans). My feelings aren't based on science by any means, so please don't think I know what I'm talking about...LOL.
Also, I've lived in Mobile for my entire life. Was born shortly before Frederick. As far as I can recall that was the last major storm to hit Mobile. Am I correct? Also, does anyone know what category Frederick was at landfall. I told my Mom it was a three, she says a four.
Sorry for the long post but figured this was the best place to get these answers.
Thanks again
Tara
ok info on the storm u guys. she is at 908 mbs. her winds are low for that pressure so ecpect the winds to rise more. also she should if given time undergo another eye wall cycle. the problem is the eye is so large it would be close to landfall. she will stregthen until than. and when she does go thru a eye wall cycle if she does the winds will not drop off much at all. so if the winds get up to 170-189mph they will not drop below cat 5 status. most cat 5 do not get this strong or this low a pressure. this is a once in a lifetime storm. all u need to know is this storm will flatyten cities. millions are now all homeless. if u are with in 150 miles of the landfall you will likley be in grave danger. not many structures could withsatnd the sustained 6-10 hrs max woinds of this hurricane let alone the gusts close to 200. you need to treat this like a giant f3 tornadao.
Get Real, Do you have a "Safe" place to stay during the storm? Already prayed for you and will continue to.
Hate to admit.... with all the caps and histrionics.... ST may be right.
ANYONE IN THE CONE.... GET OUT OF DODGE NOW.
I'd like to see everyone back here afterwards, safe and sound. Bickering as usual.
Models updated...

Link
ok info on the storm u guys. she is at 908 mbs. her winds are low for that pressure so ecpect the winds to rise more. also she should if given time undergo another eye wall cycle. the problem is the eye is so large it would be close to landfall. she will stregthen until than. and when she does go thru a eye wall cycle if she does the winds will not drop off much at all. so if the winds get up to 170-189mph they will not drop below cat 5 status. most cat 5 do not get this strong or this low a pressure. this is a once in a lifetime storm. all u need to know is this storm will flatyten cities. millions are now all homeless. if u are with in 150 miles of the landfall you will likley be in grave danger. not many structures could withsatnd the sustained 6-10 hrs max woinds of this hurricane let alone the gusts close to 200. you need to treat this like a giant f3 tornadao
Michelle, during Frederick, I don't remember any reports of sustained winds higher than 115 MPH. It was, however, a massive storm. Pine forest were leveled at least a hundred miles inland. Gulf Shores got the brunt of it. People as far east as Pensacola, and as far west as Pascagoula reported being inside the eye, if you can believe that. I admit, that sounds like a stretch.
This is all so surreal. I'm sitting in Biloxi less than a quarter mile from the gulf. Came over to the office to Ghost our computers. Stopped by the C-store for coffee. I think, for the most part, it has set in. THe people I saw were very somber. This is going to be devestating on so many levels. Our city, county, state relies heavily on gaming $$. This storm is going to wipe out 1,000's of jobs. Not for a couple of weeks but months, years.

Our lives, landscape and culture are going to change beyond anyone's imagination. I can only hope EVERYBODY heeds the warnings and finds safe refuge. My family is leaving for Destin this morning and I'm staying here (unfortunately).

I can't explain this feeling that I have right now. I have a great love for this community. I've grown up here and have been a part of the explosion of growth we've seen here. To think so much is going to change, so quickly. It just surreal.
tmichelle1979, here's a link on Frederick.

It was a category 3 or 4 at its peak, depending on where you look on that page (pic says 130 mph, chart says 135), but hit land with winds of 110 to 125, depending on what you read.

It's the last bad one for Mobile that I can recall.
everything i stated was just reststed by the nhc on cnn. U NEED TO TREAT THIS AS A GIANT F3 TORNADO. IF U ARE WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE COURSE U NEED TO LEAVE HEAD NORTH PLEASE. THIS IS A ONCE IN A LIFETIME STORM. GET UR NEIGHBORS UP MAKE THEM LEAVE MILLIONS ARE NOW HOMELESS, THOUSANDS WILL DIE. THIS IS NOT A OVERSTATEMENT
1397. sewmap
Wasn't Camile's lowest pressure 909?
Robert-
I didn't think it got any worse than that. I know it was HORRIBLE for the area. I was only three months old though, so my memory isn't one to be relied on...LOL (actually anytime there is a hurricane headed this way all the channels start discussing Frederic).
Tara
Moved to Mobile 2 weeks pre Freddie. The radio (WABB) played Riders on the Storm about a million times. They would report on the location of the eye and wind speed. Everyo believed it was a Cat 4. But later they said it was a Cat 3. We had 15 trees down with 6 on the house (Perin Rd.). No power for 2 weeks. tornados o'pleny.
One reinforced concrete builing on downtowner blvd had the top floor wiped off clean. It was amazing. But, people worked together and were patient for the most part and we pulled through. A lesson there i guess.
Nsaltwater, the casinos will be rebuilt; Next time though, I'll bet that they'll have the foresight to build them on land.
YES THIS WILL BE STYONGER THAN CAMILE. IF U ARE WITH IN 150 MILES OF THE LANDFALL U NEED TO LEAVE NOW!!!!!!!

BATON ROUGE IS NOT SAFE AT ALL U NEED TO HEAD NORTH AS FAR AS U CAN GO. DON'T WORRY BOUT WHERE U ARE GOING. JUST GO.
nsaltwater, your post is great, however sad. It hit me pretty hard. I live on the gulf coast, too, and you're right--a lot of things are really going to change.

What's happening is almost too much to think about. And all we can do is watch.

I think I need to go outside for a while.
1403. sewmap
Is everyone still saying NO. Thought I would check real quick before for I head to work.
Lefty ..I just woke up and i am in awe at what has happened over the last 6 hrs...Sweet Jesus
Thanks Wunderdog
I use http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/index.html for tracking previous storms, but it's hard at times to see the Category at impact.
I HOPE I AM GETTING THRU TO SOME OF YOU IN DANGER. U NEED TO GO!!!! THIS STORM WILL TAKE LIVES WITH EASE.
1407. Dragoon
Don't give up hope yet. The storm is still a day away. Things can happen in a day.
1408. iyou
nsalt - that was hard to read - straight from your heart - be safe - there will always be people here to talk with you.
Tara, So true, the "big one of 79" back in the day. (smile)
WE DON'T HAVE HOPE. SHE IS COMMING AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO. THE DIRECTOR OF THE NHC SAID THIS DESTRUCTION WILL BE NOTHING LIKE CAMILE OR ANDREW. SHE IS MUCH BIGGER AND PEOPLE NEED TO GO NOW. tHAT WAS HIS WORDS. I AM JUST STATING HIS WORDS. GO NOW
1411. Dragoon
But in any case, listen to lefty. You need to get out NOW. Hope for the best.. but prepare for the worst. Please.
If you draw your water from a well, a hand pump is great for after the storm. With ponys drinking 20 gallons a day, bathing & cleanin it was a godsend after frances & jeanne last year.

I've always been one to stay but if this was anywhere near me I'd run
Have you guys seen the wind map? It is HUGE. This is a very wide storm.

dragoon, people are evaciong to batonr rouge likeit will be out of harms way. i know atleast one or two of the people in here in the past couple day may not make it thru this storm. i hope that sinks in. people are gonna die. u need to save urslef. conditions will deteriote thru the day. u r ruinning out of time
SaymoBEEL
What part of town do you live in? Just curious..I'm out towards the Semmes area.
My Mom (as well as everyone else) references storms to Frederic. When Frederic hit we lived down in the midtown area (near Bel-Air Blvd and Cottage Hill intersection). She always tells me about how we were without power for three weeks and about how bad the conditions were.
Are you boarding up the house? Hubby doesn't think we should but he has to work (up in Saraland) and I'd rather him do it before he goes to work and leaves us here then us wish he had.
Tara
Wade Guice....we need you!

Ditto!!!!

jax its that windmap that tells u thatn this storm has cat 5 winds over a lrge area. not just near the eye. people need to go now
For those of you that are far inland, 100 miles or more, if you are staying, fill all your sinks and tubs with water. You will need it.
1419. iyou
nsalt - go with your family - nothing is more important than being together.
FEMA just said the skyscrapers downtown WILL NOT STAND...also he has serious doubts about the SUPERDOME
Get this: They mayor of New Orleans didn't even know what year (he wasn't even sure which decade) Hurricane Betsy occured in.
1422. kaneui
just picture Andrew's devastation, but on a much wider swath...and flooding on an epic scale...I don't think we can imagine how bad the aftermath will be from Katrina.
1423. gagal
Jeff just updated.
Here's the wind map. Lefty is right folks. Leave. Baton Rouge may be feeling hurricane force winds BEFORE KATRINA MAKES LANDFALL! That's right, this storm is so big, hurricane force winds may make it to baton rouge before the eye hits land.Link
OK, let's shift gears a little. Those of you in Florida, give me some help. After the storm, for the week or two when things are hard to get, ie no power, no retail.... What were the small things you wished you had and now think you would have to have before the next storm. I'm going to make a run to the store later... Just trying to be prepared. Thanks.
RobertForsman, I remember going out in the eye of Frederic. I was in Pascagoula!
OK FOR THOSE WHO DO NOT LEAVE HERES SOME TIPS TO HELP U LIVE THUR THIS

u ned to treat this like a tornado. u need to get to the lowest level u can barringflooding in a room with no windows. maybe the bathroom. u need to take the matress off the bed and bring it to ur safe room. the bath room and the tub would be the best. when it gets bad u need to go to the safe room and get under the matress. things will be breaking u will lose ur roof but u need to stay under ur matress to protect urself. if u have kids with you godforbid u do, pleas place your body between them and the danger. u must save ur kids. this is seriouse

1428. mkm1960
Newbie here, Get Real, prayers are going up for you and all that will be working down there during this. May the Lord hold you all in His hands. GOD BLESS YOU ALL.
1429. iyou
the discussion has shifted to Dr. Masters' latest update.
PascMississippi, I am also from Pascagoula, but I was upstate when Frederic moved through. My uncle, who was there during the eye, noted that the temperature dropped from 80 degrees to 70 degrees once they were inside the eye.
when will the latest update be??
Tara, I'm off Old Shell between Bit and Spur and McGregor. We have moved everything outside into a storage building but no boards on windows. I may wish that I did. I have tarps ready and bought $2 shower curtain liners which are perfect for putting over broken windows. Other than that just normal stuff. My "safe room" is a converted garage. It has limited windows (all under the carport).
the weather channel just talked of a trough coming from the northwest. he hinted that it could meet katrina soon enough to push it northwest to due north and maybe a little bit of the east.

do any of you see this happenening?
BTW Tara, we were without power for almost three weeks with Frddie. I called my sister to convince her to take my mom out of town. She corrected me about the number of weeks. My wife had no water for a couple of weeks in Springhill.
SaymoBEEL
I have a friend in that area, so I know exactly where you're speaking of.
Well, I think I'm going to go ahead and get him out there to board up...just go ahead and be on the safe side, ya know? His brother is living with us right now and he'll be here to help me and the kids out (if, God Forbid, it gets really bad here). Plus, I think my Mom and Dad may come over here if he leaves (they don't like me being alone during storms). I can just see me telling my bro-in-law and Dad to run out in the storm and board up windows! LOL Guess I'll call Mom and see what she thinks. She never took her boards down from Dennis...Now I wish I hadn't. Our house is off the ground (brick) and it's a pain in the rear for him to have to put the boards up. Oh well...at least he'll have help with his brother here.
Tara
Mom said it was three weeks for us too.
Luckily, hubby works at an oil processing plant. They have fuel there and, if they want him there, they will have to give us gas if we have major outages! LOL
USM
I didn't hear that. I have my TV turned down though because hubby and daughter are asleep right by me. I've kinda thought that might happen though (just thoughts though...no science behind that). As much as I hate to see it hit MS or AL, I hate even worse for it to destroy New Orleans.
Tara
1438. jah510
NSaltWater,
If you can...freeze all or as much of your water as you can. You can't imagine how much you will wish for cold water when the power is off. I didn't have a generator when I was without of power all those weeks after Frances, but I did have an inverter that I used in my car to run my laptop. If you can find one...get it. Get several small jars of mayo...you can open one to make tuna, egg salad, whatever and just chalk the rest up to waste. The packets are fine too, but you will have to open up a million to get enough. Get eggs and boil them...keep them in the fridge, they will stay good for a while (remember easter eggs!)in just cool temps. Get more water than you think you need...it's hot and your body will need more than usual. Get instant coffee if you are a coffee fiend like me...It's better hot, but better room temp than not. Get an old fashioned perolator if you can find one and have a bbq grill to heat it up on.
Get lots of disposable stuff like plastic ware, paper plates and bowls, those aluminum tins that they sell for baking. You can use them to heat on the grill and then throw away. Large garbage bags come in very handy...there will be more crap in the yard than you can imagine and garbage pickup will be non existent for a while after the storm...you probably don't have even garbage cans to hold it all until then.
I don't know where you are, but my God, I feel for you. I left Florida when Floyd was coming and I also bugged out when Frances and Jeanne came last year. I know I came home to what looked like a war zone after Frances...no traffic lights, trees down everywhere, no food in the grocery stores, no gas at the stations. I was at least smart enough to bring stuff home with me from Georgia, like gas (40 gallons of it) and all the ice I could get. It helped.
Frances was nothing like Katrina was going to be, and I cannot imagine it. In less than 24 hours, life as the people who are impacted know it will cease to exist for a long, long time. God bless each and everyone and keep you safe.
P.S. I say that the folks in New Orleans, as soon as they can, should get that STUPID mayor of their's OUT OF OFFICE. CNN reported that he was waiting for a conference call this morning before mandatory evacs?????????!!!! OMFG!!! I hope no one was following this moron's lead.
Great post, jah510. Thanks.

On coffee: after Ivan, I bought my mom a graniteware camping percolator. There's lots of pots around, but the percolator's the thing. I ordered it over the net and it took forever, but I think you can score them at Wal-Mart or Academy sometimes.
Thank you wunder and lefty - I am so glad I found this blog and that you guys are here! I have to admit - the power outages are just awful to go through especially with the kind of heat we have been experiencing here lately. I have friends in NO. Very good friends that I am worried sick about. They manage a time share condo situation in the HEART of the french quarter. They have guests staying in 10 units that are tourist and have no way to leave, consequenty - he feels he can't leave. I say leave them and GET OUT! He says the traffic is horrendous trying to leave...I say I will come get you but I can't get into NO. I am taking to them every hour or so and he is starting to listen to me. I also run a local coffee shop wunder - Bad Ass Coffee - after this is all over come by, have a great cup of java - ON ME!!!
Is there any hope at all that NOLA will not be inundated with water at this point, even if Katrina turns north very soon? The weather channel is still thinking the possibility of a direct hit in Alabama/Mississippi...but what about storm surge for NOLA even in that scenario?

But I have good news: the rest of my housemates *finally* left in the wee hours this morning. But I'm praying for people who are not as fortunate to leave.
1442. Raine54
NSaltWater...Lay in a stock of unscented baby wipes and that alcohol hand sanitizer..When Opal went thru we only lost power here in Niceville for a few days and made out fine with camping stuff, but not having water to bathe with was a trial.. I had small children at the time and sanitation was really an issue...Wish you would just evac with your family...
Don't overreact about mayo going bad---it doesn't actually spoil for a long, long time.
1444. GetReal
Well I'm back, I could not sleep due to apprehension of Katrina locking dead on to my residence in Westwego, La., located just south of New Orleans on Bayou Segnette. during the last half, weather has deteriated, wind picking up to near tropical storm force in passing squalls. Our mayor expects 8 to 10 feet of water in our streets once tidal surge comes over the 7 foot high hurricane levees. I will have to report to work at 0600 hours to work 12 hours in landfalling Katrina.
1445. GetReal
Looks to me that the eye is tightening and she may be going through another strengthening phase. Also it appears that she will cross the coast just west of Grade Isle, near Port Fourchon.
1446. rifhard
I was wondering how safe is the Superdome from a structural standpoint? Is it located in a low lying area that could flood easily? Any links that discuss the vulnerability of the Superdome would be appreciated. I just read this and am horrified for the people staying there. Not sure if it is accurate.

Until roughly a month
ago I worked for an
engineering firm that
does impact studies and
evacuation routing,
etc... Nearly 2 years
ago we stated that use
of the Superdome in this
type of situation would
do nothing but create a
single place to find the
bodies and to make a
mass gravesite much
easier to deal with
since all that would be
left to do is to have
the bulldozers push dirt
in to the top of the
structure.


Remember the Olympic
stadium in Bosnia???
Same situation here
unfortunately...


EDIT: We were *not* the
only ones to point this
out btw... There just
isn't anyplace else for
people to go in the city
in this situation. In
such conditions, the
only thing that works is
case hardened structures
100 ft. above sea level
and then the structure
should be small or made
of smaller internal
structures to sustain
the damage that is
coming.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 89.6 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 45 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
BILOXI MISSISSIPPI.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KATRINA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES
OVER LAND. HOWEVER...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
AS FAR AS 150 MILES INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA. SEE INLAND
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICES.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB...27.37 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. STORM SURGE FLOODING
OF 10 TO 15 FEET...NEAR THE TOPS OF THE LEVEES...IS STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING
IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...30.2 N... 89.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 927 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT NOON CDT AND 2 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$



Source: National Weather Service

I'm from MN, my elderly grandmother from Gretna, LA has been visiting here for over a week. Thank God she missed the hurricane, however...... no one knows anything about flooding in her area. If there is anyone currently in Gretna or Terrytown, or anyone who knows anything about specific flooding or damage there, please e-mail me ASAP @ Jessmatteson@aol.com. Also my uncle is a sheffif's deputy there, if anyone runs into a deputy Klegin, please send him our love. Thanks