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Ex-Typhoon Nuri Bombs to 924 mb in Bering Sea

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:43 AM GMT on November 09, 2014

What was once Category 5 Super Typhoon Nuri bombed into one of the strongest extratropical storms ever observed in the Pacific Ocean, reaching 924 mb at 06 UTC Saturday morning--a pressure rarely achieved by an extratropical storm. The only two Pacific storms I am aware of that compare are the October 25 - 26, 1977 storm near Dutch Harbor, Alaska that set Alaska's all-time low pressure record (925 mb), and a storm from December 24, 1975 that hit 926 mb near 49°N 158°W. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has all the details in his latest post. Thanks go to wunderblogger Steve Gregory for supplying the images below.


CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of the mighty extratropical storm Ex-Typhoon Nuri became in the Bering Sea on November 8, 2014. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Surface analysis for 06 UTC Saturday (1 am EST) November 8, 2014 from the GFS model. Note the large area of storm-force winds greater than 50 knots (57.5 mph, red colors) near the 933 mb low. The low was analyzed as being much deeper (924 mb) by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.


Figure 3. Analysis of Geopotential Heights in decameters (black lines), temperature in Centigrade (white lines), and winds in knots (colors) at 500 mb (roughly 19,000 feet altitude) for 06 UTC Saturday (1 am EST) November 8, 2014 from the GFS model. Note the strong jet stream winds in excess of 110 knots (126 mph, pink colors) just south of the low pressure system over the Bering Sea.


Figure 4. Analysis of Geopotential Heights in decameters (black lines), and winds in knots (colors) at 200 mb (roughly 40,000 feet altitude) for 06 UTC Saturday (1 am EST) November 8, 2014 from the GFS model. Note the very strong jet stream winds in excess of 140 knots (161 mph, white colors) just south of the low pressure system over the Bering Sea. A pilot report of winds of 170 knots (196 mph) at 200 mb altitude was recorded near this time.

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Amazing storm. What's the record low pressure for an Atlantic non-tropical storm?
Good evening everyone..subject heading saids a lot..

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2014

VALID 12Z TUE NOV 11 2014 - 12Z SAT NOV 15 2014


...MID-WINTER IN MID-NOVEMBER...

WHILE IT WILL BE FAR FROM MILD UNDER THE BIG ARCTIC HIGH NESTLING
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, THE WEATHER FORECAST AT LEAST WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNCOMPLICATED. IT IS THE FLOW AROUND THE EDGES OF THE
POOL OF COLD AIR THAT PRESENTS THE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHALLENGE
THIS PERIOD. THE HIGH LATITUDE OF THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT
IS PART OF THE MACHINERY BRINGING THE EARLY CHILL WILL TEND TO DO
TWO THINGS TO THE FLOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH: FIRST, LOWER HEIGHTS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. SECOND, MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD LEAD TO GREATER PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS.
THE WET SWATH IN THE WEST WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
OREGON SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE. IN THE EAST, THE ATLANTIC
STATES FROM FLORIDA TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE VULNERABLE TO
PRECIPITATION FROM ANY WAVE OR WAVES THAT RIDE THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE.


CISCO
Just had a pretty good clap of thunder here on the northside of Orlando. Raining now.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters. Incredible storm, even an eye-like feature. That makes 2 freak storms in the past 2 years if you include Superstorm Sandy.
He is coming!

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 5 in the Indian ocean is producing very heavy rain in India:



99W has now crossed over into the Andaman sea and should be watched as it has potential to become a tropical cyclone in the comings days:



JTWC currently issuing a medium chance of formation.
Quoting tropicofcancer:
He is coming!

In a hurry too.
Ahhh It's getting cold!.Everyone panic. -_-
Quoting Envoirment:
The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 5 in the Indian ocean is producing very heavy rain in India:



99W has now crossed over into the Andaman sea and should be watched as it has potential to become a tropical cyclone in the comings days:



JTWC currently issuing a medium chance of formation.
Getting closer to depression status I think.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhh It's getting cold!.Everyone panic. -_-
Yep, and buy every grocery off the shelfs. Lol.
Thanks, doc! Busy times for you with all these out of order hurricanes right now.

Shemya, Alaska, yesterday:


Shemya earlier this year. Not many places to hide from a super storm ...




Quoting 1. tbonehfx:

Amazing storm. What's the record low pressure for an Atlantic non-tropical storm?


914 mb from the Braer storm of January 1993 Link

There was also a powerful low pressure system (927 mb) in the north Atlantic in December last year (the most powerful of at least 12 major winter storms that hit the UK last winter):



Link

Strong extratropical systems seem a lot more common in the north Atlantic than the north Pacific.
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Ahhh It's getting cold!.Everyone panic. -_-
run run very fast
then you won't feel the cold
thanks for update doc
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION

Excerpt:

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE VERY DEEP EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BOTTOMED
OUT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA SOMETIME LAST EVENING AND HAS
STARTED TO VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN. THERE ARE NO OBSERVATIONS TO RECORD
THE ACTUAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THAT AREA...BUT A DRIFTING BOUY
EAST OF THE LOW CENTER DROPPED TO 929.8MB LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY SOMEWHERE
IN THE LOWER OR MID 920S.
Quoting 8. washingtonian115:

Ahhh It's getting cold!.Everyone panic. -_-


Should I put my hurricane shutters back up? I don't know what to do.
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 5 in the Indian ocean is producing very heavy rain in India:



99W has now crossed over into the Andaman sea and should be watched as it has potential to become a tropical cyclone in the comings days:



JTWC currently issuing a medium chance of formation.


To me we already have Ashooba on 05B. Very deep convection over there.
Some Storm that one, Thanks Doc,
Quoting 17. Naga5000:



Should I put my hurricane shutters back up? I don't know what to do.
What does your gut feeling tell you Naga?

XX/XX/XX
Checking Baynews9 lightning strikes across Central Florida. Not showing any. Also, my Spark in my WeatherBug app shows the nearest lightning strike 1,250 miles away.
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

What does your gut feeling tell you Naga?


I'm trying not to panic, it's going to get down to about 71 for a high tomorrow. I think I will skip the shutters and maybe just put on some jeans. Good call?
Quoting 12. Envoirment:



914 mb from the Braer storm of January 1993 Link [snip]
Strong extratropical systems seem a lot more common in the north Atlantic than the north Pacific.


Nice! let's beat Ex-Nuri, lol:

"In winter, the Norwegian Sea generally has the lowest air pressure in the entire Arctic and where most Icelandic Low depressions form." Wiki, Article "Norwegian Sea".

The two lowest barometric readings recorded in the Atlantic Ocean have occurred in the eighties and nineties of the 20th century. The first was the Atlantic Cyclone of 15 December 1986, which deepened to 916 hPa, and the other was the storm of 10-11 January 1993 [Braer storm] which is much better documented. According to Gulev et al. (2001), Northern Hemisphere winter cyclones have intensified and produced deeper central mean sea level pressures in recent decades. However, these winter cyclones also appear to have shorter life cycles and dissipate more quickly. Source.


Low pressure of so called Braer Storm 1993 (click to enlarge).

Source: 01/23/2013 di ccassardo, Very low minima of extratropical cyclones in North Atlantic

There you can also find this:

Also the storm occurred on December 15th-16th, 1986, deepened to at least 916 hPa south-east of Greenland, near 62N 32W, a value assessed by the British Meteorological Office, while the West German meteorological service proposed a pressure possibly as low as 912-913 hPa. The map below, at 00 UTC of December 15th, shows a minimum lower than 925 hPa, and a situation quite different from the previous one, in which the depression size was smaller and supposedly with most intense winds. In both cases, the evolution of the system was quite rapid: the low intensified by 25-30 hPa in only 24 hours, and filled by 25-30 hPa in a similar time.



(Click to enlarge)
And many more around 920hpa.

Edit: Have to add as I've just seen, that our weather historian mentions those record low pressured Atlantic storms with maps in his blog from 2011.
maybe I will start tracking the upcoming cold or should I say down

nice blog Jeff Masters
18z gfs 96 hr dynamic tropopause

18z gfs 120 hr dynamic tropopause
18z gfs 180 hr dynamic tropopause

I am sure that the images in this story are turn-on's for atmospheric physicists but there is at least one of us that would appreciate your not obscuring the geography. For some of us, location is more important than vectors.
Strong high pressure out of Canada.....1053 MB,s

Quoting 33. yyyyyy:

I am sure that the images in this story are turn-on's for atmospheric physicists but there is at least one of us that would appreciate your not obscuring the geography. For some of us, location is more important than vectors.
I don't make those maps that's the way they come
A little off topic, but at least Alaskan as a sort of "Alaskan SAL", amazing! :-)



Silty Alaskan Skies
NASA Earth Observatory, November 9, 2014
When glaciers grind against underlying bedrock, they produce a silty powder with grains finer than sand. Geologists call it "glacial flour" or "Crock flour". This iron- and feldspar-rich substance often finds its way into rivers and lakes, coloring the water brown, grey, or aqua. When water levels are low, the flour can dry out on riverbanks and deltas and become dust for winds to lift into the air.
That's what was happening on October 28, 2014, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this image of northerly winds blowing dust from the Copper River Delta over the Gulf of Alaska. Dust events are most common in this area in the fall, when river and lake levels in south central Alaska are at their lowest. Another period of high dust activity occurs in late winter and early spring. ...

Whole article see link above. And have a good night!
Quoting 34. hydrus:

Strong high pressure out of Canada.....1053 MB,s


thinking once this cold moves in it could be late dec before it changes up

near the end of long range even colder air is building back over high arctic poised to drop south and east this may end up being the long term pattern for the winter we shall see
pablosyn:


To me we already have Ashooba on 05B. Very deep convection over there.


IMD Satellite bulletin (530 AM IST / 0:00 AM UTC)

BOB04 (05B) located near 14.5N 83.3E

Dvorak 1.0

Satellite Service and Division (3:00 AM UTC)

14.2N 82.9E

Dvorak 1.5
end of 18 z run

its like the atmosphere thinks the red x is the new north pole or something

oops, wrong data from SSD website

fixed comment no. 39
Quoting luvtogolf:
Checking Baynews9 lightning strikes across Central Florida. Not showing any. Also, my Spark in my WeatherBug app shows the nearest lightning strike 1,250 miles away.
Yeah, but what about that clap of thunder? Huh?
Quoting 38. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

thinking once this cold moves in it could be late dec before it changes up

near the end of long range even colder air is building back over high arctic poised to drop south and east this may end up being the long term pattern for the winter we shall see
The winter pattern is gaining momentum earlier than usual. That ridge on the west coast has grown into Western Canada, and will stay for a while. Usually during our fall into winter phase, there is some severe weather, which has been on the quiet side...

Quoting yyyyyy:
I am sure that the images in this story are turn-on's for atmospheric physicists but there is at least one of us that would appreciate your not obscuring the geography. For some of us, location is more important than vectors.
You've been a member here since 2007 and you haven't figured out that we don't make our own maps? Wow...
Quoting hydrus:
The winter pattern is gaining momentum earlier than usual. That ridge on the west coast has grown into Western Canada, and will stay for a while. Usually during our fall into winter phase, there is some severe weather, which has been on the quiet side...

It must have something to do with a combination of the colder than normal temperatures, much drier air than normal, and very weak return flows from the Gulf the few times we get them. Except for a couple of relatively weak and isolated severe storms in Alabama over the past two years, we've had almost no tornado or thunderstorm activity. The last really heavy rain event we had was back in the the last part of April when Pensacola and Mobile were flooded so badly. Really, since the last big tornado outbreak in 2011, it has been unusually quiet down here. I don't know what the deal is with this but it's a long time to go and not have "typical" weather. I'm just hoping last winter's ice and snow storm doesn't start getting "typical".
Quoting FLGatorCaneNut:


Chicken Little - the sky is falling... it's raining in Florida - Oh and according to 2 lightning reports -nothing in your area Scotty..... Very little to no lighting accross the continental U.S. actually. Unless it's those fire works at Disney you heard echoing.
I don't know. Sounds like things could pretty rough down there later tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEFORE SUNSET HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THOUGH ITS
TAIL END IS HANGING ON ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY.

WIND FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT ACROSS S FL. FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION...WHILE LARGER TROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOME OF THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS EVENING...SO FAR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. TAMPA'S EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE DRY MID
LEVELS HAVE BEEN SATURATED...WHILE JACKSONVILLE'S ON THE STILL DRIER
SIDE OF THE STATE STILL HOLDS ONTO A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AROUND
7-7500FT. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR IS STILL LIKELY PRESENT OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...THOUGH GIVEN THE TREND AT
TAMPA EXPECT THINGS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING.

THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD FOR A STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LARGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES AHEAD OF IT JUST TO OUR
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AROUND DAYBREAK.

Although chances for wintry weather in the southern US aside from perhaps the climatologically favored areas of the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandle are almost too negligible to mention, this upcoming pattern with a formidable cold air mass thanks in part to the recurvature & intensification of Nuri in ET & especially a massive Alaskan Omega Block is starting to throw up a few red flags for me. Reason being, these Alaskan Blocks (especially Omega Blocks) tend to be rather transient in nature, splitting off from the mean flow & expelling pieces of energy over the pole & into northern Eurasia/Siberia, and usually end their evolution w/ energy undercutting them via the Pacific or subtropical jet, and if there's a trough still stuck over eastern North America as will be the case for the next week or so, this can make the weather quite *interesting* in the southern US, to say the least. It's November after all, and if nothing comes of this, I wouldn't be shocked, but I am certainly growing suspicious of this pattern...


I've already posted this here, but for visual comparison, 500mb pattern preceding some of the most significant southern US overrunning/winter wx events that immediately come to my mind...


The GFS, ECMWF, & 500mb GEM Ensemble means all have a similar general idea on the pattern, although the European & GFS solutions are more believable to me based on the natural progression of vigorous Alaskan mid-upper level highs...









The negative upper level velocity potential anomalies starting to approach 30-60E is also making me a bit uneasy, as least last winter I observed that every winter wx event in NC, including the most significant storm on Feb 12-13 occurred when -200mb Velocity Potential anomalies became entrenched in & around this longitudinal band (corresponding to East Africa & the Arabian Sea). I mentioned this to Dr. Mike Ventrice and he proposed this could be due to equatorial convectively coupled Kelvin Waves Modulating the intensity & location of upper level westerly wind ducts, where in Equatorward (& even cross-equatorial) propagation of Rossby Waves & their associated easterly momentum is favored. Will be interesting to see if this relationship shows up once again this winter, thus far it is 6 for 6 (make that 7 for 7 given the wintry wx in Columbia at the very beginning of the month also corresponded to -VP anoms. over 30-60E, amazing)...





For now, I would just stick this in the back of your mind & label as "unlikely," at least until more definitive evidence for an overrunning event appears. I would personally like to have a decent snowpack laid down first in the northern tier before jumping to any confident conclusions, but this may be worth watching...
Quoting 17. Naga5000:



Should I put my hurricane shutters back up? I don't know what to do.

In FL I'd leave them up until Christmas. Texas Gulf Coast.. Done.
Quoting 47. sar2401:

I don't know. Sounds like things could pretty rough down there later tonight...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2014

.DISCUSSION...LINE OF MODERATE SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEFORE SUNSET HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...THOUGH ITS
TAIL END IS HANGING ON ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY.

WIND FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE RESIDUAL SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS
LIFTED NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT ACROSS S FL. FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION...WHILE LARGER TROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOME OF THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THIS EVENING...SO FAR MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. TAMPA'S EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE DRY MID
LEVELS HAVE BEEN SATURATED...WHILE JACKSONVILLE'S ON THE STILL DRIER
SIDE OF THE STATE STILL HOLDS ONTO A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER AROUND
7-7500FT. SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR IS STILL LIKELY PRESENT OVER MOST
OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...THOUGH GIVEN THE TREND AT
TAMPA EXPECT THINGS TO CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THIS EVENING.

THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD FOR A STEADY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LARGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND SURFACE LOW CONSOLIDATES AHEAD OF IT JUST TO OUR
EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC AROUND DAYBREAK.




I'm on the ground here, Sar, and I can safely say I might need an umbrella, but probably not.
Quoting 3. StormTrackerScott:

Just had a pretty good clap of thunder here on the northside of Orlando. Raining now.

Yikes.
Have they started contra-flow on I-4 yet?
Quoting 53. CosmicEvents:


Yikes.
Have they started contra-flow on I-4 yet?


be nice cosmic scott is alright little over the top sometimes but he is ok
ok I got to be honest a lot sometimes but still he is ok
Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



be nice cosmic scott is alright little over the top sometimes but he is ok
ok I got to be honest a lot sometimes but still he is ok

Scott's ok in my book too.
Slightly more exuberant than I am but to each his own. He adds passion and enthusiasm and 300" of rain....
I hope those across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan have their shovels ready. Looks like 6" totals will be widespread, with the potential for up to a foot and a half of snow east of the Twin Cities.

Wow!!! impressive storm!! it even has an 'eye-like' feature to it!
Textbook manifestation of the 50-60 Lezak Recurring Cycle upcoming. The seemingly stochastic periodicity of this variable relatively low frequency harmonic in the mid-latitude jet appears to have migrated to around 60 days of late... Will make note of that
Looks like India Meteorological Department has upgraded the Well Marked Low Pressure (BOB04) back into a depression again.

location of "BOB04" as of 8:30 AM IST: 14.5N 82.8E

Dvorak: T1.5 RPT T1.5
Quoting Naga5000:


I'm on the ground here, Sar, and I can safely say I might need an umbrella, but probably not.
I wouldn't be that fast. It's always possible you might have to make a last minute dash out for milk or bread if things get bad, and the umbrella might come in handy. That would be especially true if that rain turned cold, although probably not so much if you get any more claps of thunder.
What do you know, the historical precedent I briefly mentioned a day or so ago (Nov 18-19 2000) in reference to the generally favorable pattern for wintry wx in the southern US (by Nov standards, which isn't saying much) when the model guidance was more aggressive w/ the chances of snow/ice in & around the Carolinas, is showing up a ton in the 6-10/8-14 day 500mb analogs... Interesting












The GFS is dancing around this possibility of overrunning in the southeastern US, which although very unlikely for now, isn't entirely impossible given the parameters I outlined in comment #49...
Wow, I log on and its the "everybody attack Scott because he heard thunder" show. You all should be ashamed of yourselves. He was just talking about the weather, ON A WEATHER BLOG. How do you know he didn't hear thunder? were you at his house?
Quoting Webberweather53:
What do you know, the historical precedent I briefly mentioned a day or so ago (Nov 18-19 2000) in reference to the generally favorable pattern for wintry wx in the southern US (by Nov standards, which isn't saying much) when the model guidance was more aggressive w/ the chances of snow/ice in & around the Carolinas, is showing up a ton in the 6-10/8-14 day 500mb analogs... Interesting












The GFS is dancing around this possibility of overrunning in the southeastern US, which although very unlikely for now, isn't entirely impossible given the parameters I outlined in comment #49...
I'll take overrunning, underrunning, or right in the middle, as long as we finally get something wet, even if it has to melt first. I will say that the GFS for next Sunday shows a pretty unusual snow pattern for Alabama. It's rare, although not impossible, to get any snow in central Alabama and get none in the north or south Alabama. The only real snow we got in 2000 was January, and that was mostly in western AL. It was cold from mid-November thought December though.
this will likey be the 1st winter name storm of the season from the weather ch looks like following the storm we could be looking at a lot of wide spread ALL day hard HARD FREEZE warnings for many states has its still the growing season for the states that have the winter storms watchs and warnings up
Quoting 67. sar2401:

There's a back story here you're apparently not aware of.

How far back? As in Scott is always hyping central Florida weather? I know that. So what? Its a weather blog. All I see is you and a few others criticize him every day for what he says. Id rather read what he has to say about 384 hour GFS runs or 3 month el nino forecasts than a lot of the stuff that gets thrown around on here
Quoting 22. luvtogolf:

Checking Baynews9 lightning strikes across Central Florida. Not showing any. Also, my Spark in my WeatherBug app shows the nearest lightning strike 1,250 miles away.



Bay news 9 and other area sites only display CG lightning strikes, and you don't need CG strikes to get thunder. My parents also heard a little bit of thunder with one brief shot of heavy rain, otherwise they said its been light, steady, chilly and stable rain.

The reason why the only displace CG strikes, is because lightning in the summer can be too widespread to display cloud lightning as well, so they filter out cloud lightning and only show CG ones.
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

The remnants of Tropical Cyclone 5 in the Indian ocean is producing very heavy rain in India:



99W has now crossed over into the Andaman sea and should be watched as it has potential to become a tropical cyclone in the comings days:



JTWC currently issuing a medium chance of formation.


Welcome to India.
Quoting 69. Jedkins01:


Bay news 9 and other area sites only display CG lightning strikes, and you don't need CG strikes to get thunder. My parents also heard a little bit of thunder with one brief shot of heavy rain, otherwise they said its been light, steady, chilly and stable rain.

The reason why the only displace CG strikes, is because lightning in the summer can be too widespread to display cloud lightning as well, so they filter out cloud lightning and only show CG ones.


There was a rumble of thunder earlier here as well. Probably cloud to cloud. Interesting set up here Jed as the models especially the Euro has a strong upper low moving very slow across the state and now the Euro is forecasting as much 1.5" to 2.5" from Tampa to Daytona Beach. Could even be some hail on Monday given the cold air aloft.

Quoting 71. sar2401:
And you are more than welcome to. You can put all the rest of "us" on ignore so you don't have to see what you don't like. I wouldn't tell anyone what not to post, but I also have no problem with holding someone's feet to the fire for extraordinary forecasts that don't come true. It's a risk you or I take anytime we post anything on a public blog.


This is getting ridiculous with some of you on here. All day you guys talk about me. Strange do you guys watch football or have some sort of hobbies?

By the way Alabama found a way to win today against all odds vrs LSU
Monday it appears could be the day we get the heaviest rain from Orlando to Daytona Beach.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 9 2014
===============================

The Well Marked Low Pressure Area over west central Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal areas of Andhra Pradesh.

According to satellite imagery, the center lays near 14.5N 82.8E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 15 knots with gusts of 25 knots. State of the sea is moderate to rough.
India Meteorological Department

The upper air cyclonic circulation over Gulf of Thailand & neighborhood now lays over Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Andaman sea and extends up to 3.6 km above mean sea level. Under its influence, a low pressure area may develop over south Andaman Sea & neighborhood during next 48 hours.

99W
Sounds like fun.
Quoting 72. StormTrackerScott:



There was a rumble of thunder earlier here as well. Probably cloud to cloud. Interesting set up here Jed as the models especially the Euro has a strong upper low moving very slow across the state and now the Euro is forecasting as much 1.5" to 2.5" from Tampa to Daytona Beach. Could even be some hail on Monday given the cold air aloft.


LiveToFish0430 I love fishing too :) I also like Scott, he's enthusiastic about Florida storms but so what? Scott would hate being up my way though, no measurable rain since Oct 15th!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


This is getting ridiculous with some of you on here. All day you guys talk about me. Strange do you guys watch football or have some sort of hobbies?

By the way Alabama found a way to win today against all odds vrs LSU
All week you were predicting a washout for the weekend and 2"-3" of rain. That forecast was incorrect because the models were not correct. The synoptics over the last few days showed the models weren't going to be correct. Now you still want to hang your hat on another model that Monday is going to be the big day. When that one turns out to be wrong, I'll comment on it again, just like you'll be sure to let me know if the model was right. I say the synoptics show the low pushing far enough offshore that there won't be any significant rain past Monday noon and certainly no hail. I'll be happy to eat crow if I'm wrong, but I use a lot more than looking at models to make a forecast. Yes, I know Alabama won and Auburn lost. However, I'm quite certain you would have been making a lot more posts if the rain gauges were filling up today in between downs, just like I do.
Quoting IFuSAYso:


Your next post most likely is "Get off my lawn".
Only if I can remember where I put the Garand...
Here's some crow for all those saying there is no lighting in Florida tonight.

Lightning/2000 v6.4.1 Summary (Sunday, November 09, 2014 at 4:06:10 AM EST)

Since midnight (246.2 mins.):
Total strokes: 532 (avg. 2.2/min.)
Intracloud/Intercloud strokes: 296 - 55.6% (avg. 1.2/min.)
+IC: 288 - 97.3% (avg. 1.2/min.)
-IC: 8 - 2.7% (avg. 0.0/min.)
Cloud to ground strokes: 236 - 44.4% (avg. 1.0/min.)
+CG: 217 - 91.9% (avg. 0.9/min.)
-CG: 19 - 8.1% (avg. 0.1/min.)
Compact Intercloud Discharge: 0

Total flashes: 524 (avg. 2.1/min.)
Cloud to ground flashes: 235 - 44.8% (avg. 1.0/min.)
+CG flashes: 216 - 91.9% (avg. 0.9/min.)
-CG flashes: 19 - 8.1% (avg. 0.1/min.)
Intercloud/Intracloud flashes: 289 - 55.2% (avg. 1.2/min.)
+IC flashes: 281 - 97.2% (avg. 1.1/min.)
-IC flashes: 8 - 2.8% (avg. 0.0/min.)

Total nearby flashes: 0
Total noises: 118 (avg. 0.5/min., 18.2%)
Total energy: 353 (avg. 1.4/min., 66%, squelch = 1)


It's been a while since I logged on. Most of the time it's not worth it any more. HGW is still here dispensing the updates most of you don't care about. I've not bothered to scroll to see who of the old horde is still here. I came to this site many years ago for valuable weather advice and updates, now I come for images and the rare update from someone who cares about being accurate, up to date and scientific. Most of the time it's hard to find good advice and information, too many silly people trying to out-do each other. Good luck with all that :)


We all come here for one thing, a common interest in weather and climate. Hold fast your personal animosity, your desire to be right, and your trolling. It's really not worth it.

Here on the outskirts of Sydney the weather has been most weird - hot, cold, a few fires and lots of storms...a perfect Spring :)
Raining harder here now. Looks like north of I-4 has been the winner so far with 1 1/2 to 3" picked up on radar..

There is another earthquake swarm in Nevada like the one in 2008 but stronger.
Winter Storm Astro is poised to lay down a swath of heavy snow from Montana to Michigan in the days ahead.

Accompanying a , the season's first significant snow, not simply a few flakes, is on the table for the upcoming week in parts of the Plains and Midwest.

Timing

- Sunday: The most significant band of snow will fall from parts of Montana into parts of the Dakotas. A second area of lighter snow may dust parts of the western Great Lakes (Wisconsin and Michigan).

- Monday: Snow, possibly heavy in spots, from the High Plains of Montana and Wyoming into South Dakota, central and southern Minnesota, much of Wisconsin and mainly northern Michigan. Some snow may develop late into parts of Colorado (both mountains/foothills and plains), northwest Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa as the arctic front plunges.

- Tuesday: Snow may persist from eastern Iowa into northern Michigan. Any rain may change to wet snow farther south over northwestern Missouri, northern Illinois, southeastern Wisconsin and southern Michigan.
Snowfall Accumulation Forecast

Potential Impacts

- Interstates that may become snow-covered and slippery Monday morning include stretches of I-90, I-94, I-35 and I-29 in parts of Minnesota, the Dakotas, northern Wyoming and Montana. Some blowing snow may reduce visibility, particularly in rural areas.

- The Monday afternoon/evening commute may become difficult in parts of northern Michigan, Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and South Dakota, in particular, due to falling and accumulated snow. Some blowing snow may reduce visibility. Flight delays are possible at Minneapolis/St. Paul and Denver (snow), as well as Chicago O'Hare & Midway (low clouds near the warm front).

- Tuesday, any drizzle or light rain that had coated roads from parts of Iowa to Indiana may freeze as the arctic front plunges. Snow-covered roads could still be a problem in northern Michigan, Wisconsin. Flight delays are also possible at Chicago O'Hare and Midway.
Good morning...

Good morning form a sunny cool southern Europe.

The Alaska storm sure does look impressive on the wind map for those who can take a look at it:-

Link

Seems to be covering a vast area and looks a lot like a hurricane on the map.
Quoting 84. Skyepony:
Raining harder here now. Looks like north of I-4 has been the winner so far with 1 1/2 to 3" picked up on radar..



.41" here so far but it this feature on Monday that comes across FL and really fires up the rain tomorrow. I really beleive the Euro and the NAM have the right idea with heavy rain breaking out acoss C FL from Orlando to Daytona tomorrow despite what the NWS says.

The upper low is moving ESE toward Tampa by daybreak tomorrow and that is when thunderstorms could breakout from Orlando to the east coast.



Here's what the winds of the storm look like at 500 hPa or about 18,000 feet, (5,500 meters,)

Link

It certainly is a massive disturbance.
Today's NFL games weather forecast:

Link
.38" here in Fort Myers.
Every little bit helps when your 15" below normal for the year.
SOI continues to crash as west winds continue from nino 4 into nino 3.4.

SOI values for 09 Nov 2014



Average for last 30 days

-13.1



Average for last 90 days

-8.7



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-18.3
Quoting 94. Sfloridacat5:
.38" here in Fort Myers.
Every little bit helps when your 15" below normal for the year.


Based on the Euro C FL could get an inch plus tomorrow with as much as 2" in Volusia County as the Upper moves into the Tampa Bay area tomorrow morning.
That's a heck of a tailwind.

Quoting 92. PlazaRed:

Here's what the winds of the storm look like at 500 hPa or about 18,000 feet, (5,500 meters,)

Link

It certainly is a massive disturbance.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Based on the Euro C FL could get an inch plus tomorrow with as much as 2" in Volusia County as the Upper moves into the Tampa Bay area tomorrow morning.


My rain bucket is ready.
I'm just happy we got some rain. It's still raining lightly outside right now.
At least you're getting the best kind of rain. None wasted to runoff. And your priming that ground nicely if you get some more tomorrow.

May the rain gods be with you.

Quoting 99. Sfloridacat5:



My rain bucket is ready.
I'm just happy we got some rain. It's still raining lightly outside right now.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
At least you're getting the best kind of rain. None wasted to runoff. And your priming that ground nicely if you get some more tomorrow.

May the rain gods be with you.



The grass really needs it. We're getting brown patches in the yard where the automatic sprinkler misses. Hopefully this rain will help with that issue.
Also, nothing better than real rain.

I have a 7' cactus. It continues to live, but it doesn't grow much at all with tap water. But as soon as it gets actual rain water, it starts growing like crazy.
A good thunderstorm with a lot of lightning will make my cactus grow about 3" overnight. It's pretty remarkable to see.
In a post of Facebook page of italian site Meteonetwork I found this video of the entire satellite loop of the tropical transition occurred at the system in the Sicily channel and the Medicane phase until the landfall in Sicily.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TODAY...A FEW SPRINKLES WHILE WALKING THE PUPS BEFORE
COMING TO WORK HAS GIVEN WAY TO A MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN
STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL WELL WEST...MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA/SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. AT THE SURFACE AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF
LOWER PRESSURES EXTENDED FORM AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL
AREA TO WELL EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A FORMING WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA/EVERGLADES.

THE LATEST...09/00Z GFS RUN SHOWING THAT THIS FRONT DOES NOT MOVE
MUCH TODAY/SUNDAY. NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE TROUGH`S
AXIS SHIFTING/BACKING TO THE SOUTH AND THE SOUTHEAST ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. WHILE THE 09/00Z SOUNDINGS AND
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW DEEP MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ABOVE 850MB/5000 FEET LIFTING OVER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BELOW
5000 FEET/850MB (ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO). LARGE AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH COUPLED JET OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SW TO NE AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH MAINLY LIGHT
RAIN OCCURRING ON/OFF. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP NOT SHOWING MUCH MORE THAN
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN(-RA) WITH A FEW EMBEDDED POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST OF MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN A GOOD FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TONIGHT...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE FORWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH KEEPING IN MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ORIGINALLY SLOWER ECMWF. OUTSIDE OF A LITTLE PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS JUST COMING SHORE THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AREA AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE MODELS SURFACE LOW WELL EAST OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. BOTH MODELS KEEP THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM AROUND WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. WIND PATTERN
OF NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS A SURFACE LOW STARTS FORMING OFF
THE TREASURE COAST BECOMES NORTH TO NORTHWEST AS THE LOW DEEPENS A
LITTLE WELL EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WINDS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
TO AROUND 60/LOW 60S ORLANDO DAYTONA SOUTH.

MONDAY...MID-UPPER LVL S/W TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE STATE AND
INDUCE SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
THE MORNING WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER LIFT PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AS LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND MOVES NE A STRONGER SURGE OF
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOWERS ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS INTO THE AFTERNOON
POSSIBLY CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO THE INTERIOR. WILL HAVE 40-50 PCT
SHOWER CHANCES NEAR THE EAST COAST TAPERING TO 20 PCT MAINLY IN THE
MORNING FOR LAKE COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 70S FOR
COASTAL VOLUSIA AND THE UPPER 70S FOR THE SRN INTERIOR.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE MID LAYER LOW WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE FROM THE GA COAST. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND THE LOW WILL ALLOW SOME ATLC SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS
NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS IN THE EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NW
LATER AT NIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S NEAR
THE EAST COAST.

TUESDAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO TAKE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TWD THE FL PANHANDLE. MORE SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

WED-SUN...00Z GFS WAS SLIGHTLY DRIER FOR THE EXTENDED TONIGHT WITH
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WED-THU...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER MAINLY DRY FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY WITH SOME COOLING...AND THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS BACK ONSHORE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT
OF THE POLAR AIR THAT WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND
OHIO VALLEY WILL NOT MAKE IT TO E CENTRAL FL WITH RISING MID LVL
HEIGHTS INTO THE WEEKEND AND DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW. WILL KEEP
EXTENDED DRY BASED ON 00Z GFS/ECMWF ONLY INDICATING VERY MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES AT BEST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

First part of forecast, nothing like walking the dogs out in the rain :)
"Polar Plunge" was the term used this morning on NBC.

Dylan Dreyer (NBCnews Meteorologist)explain that the Polar Vortex is always up in the Polar regions. The cold air currently coming down into the U.S. is a small part of Polar Vortex that's been cut off.

So she called it a "Polar Plunge."

Winter Storm Astro named on TWC! Said it fist! Named Charley by me.
polar.plunge????new.phish.cd
Get ready for a new named Winter storm about every week.

FInally getting a decent rain! My lawn is happy.

As usual St Maarten got more rain than us :/ Same thing happened in may... 10 inches... and now another 10 inches within just ONE single day...
Link
GFS precipitation through Tuesday.
Everybody got some rain yesterday. Clearwater received just under .5" yesterday.Pretty consistent with the rest of the Tampa area.

wows 12 to 18 inches of snow for mid-west!
Quoting 111. CaribBoy:

As usual St Maarten got more rain than us :/ Same thing happened in may... 10 inches... and now another 10 inches within just ONE single day...
Link



That's a lot of rain for one day, mudslides will happen for sure. How much rain did you get CB?
Quoting 87. hurricanes2018:

Snowfall Accumulation Forecast


let it snow!!
Breaking:Winter Storm Astro has been named.
From Frank Strait of Accuweather..



Quoting 115. capeflorida:



That's a lot of rain for one day, mudslides will happen for sure. How much rain did you get CB?


We got heavy rains as well, lots of water was streaming from the hills... like rivers lol... indicating saturated grounds... but we didn't get as much rain as St Maarten. Between friday 12pm and saturday 12pm... the highest amount was 110mm (4.5 inches).
We don't name storms in the western Great Lakes, we'd run out of names. But with the Nov 11th storm coming up, we're referring to it by a three-letter word, starts with A and ends with S.

Last year my first snowfall over an inch occurred on Dec 3, whereas the current forecast for my area is 12-15 inches by Tuesday evening.

5 YEARS AGO - Nov 9, 2009: Hurricane Ida was threatening the central US Gulf Coast

Hurricane Ida was a rare November hurricane that formed in the Western Caribbean Sea, and first stuck Central America. The storm regained strength as it turned NNW and moved through the Yucatan Channel. In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Ida was very impressive (on Nov. 8th) ... with 105MPH sustained winds. As it approached the coast, Ida weakened to a tropical storm during the morning of Nov 9th - and re-intensified into a hurricane again, just SSE of the mouth of the Miss. R.

- Tropical storm force wind gusts were recorded from SE Louisiana, coastal Mississippi and Alabama, eastward .. into NW Florida. At the mouth of the Mississippi River, hurricane force wind gusts were recorded. On the morning of Nov 10th, the weakened 45MPH tropical storm made landfall near Dauphin Island, AL, and became extratropical. Ida continued to move up the Atlantic Seaboard as a powerful Nor'easter, and was nicknamed "Nor-IDA!"

- The amazing thing is that 2009 was the last El Nino year, and the Atlantic Hurricane season was not very busy, but Hurricane Ida was the biggest hurricane that threatened the US coast, in November! This year, it does not appear that will happen again. However; Hurricane Ida reminded coastal residents to ... "Never say Never!"

- Hurricane Kate was the last full-blown NOVEMBER hurricane to hit the US Gulf Coast, making landfall near Port St. Joe and Apalachicola, FL, as a CAT2 hurricane with winds near 100MPH. It hit the week before Thanksgiving 1985! Most of Tallahassee, FL, lost power during the hurricane, and thousands of trees were downed in the region, extending NE, into Thomasville, GA.

- In November 2007, ex-Hurricane Noel brought hurricane force wind gusts to Maine and the NE USA, as a Northeaster. After ravaging Central America as a powerful hurricane, Tropical Storm Mitch made a November landfall in S. Florida in 1998. Tropical Storm Keith made landfall in the Sarasota, FL region, in November 1988.

- It is still remotely possible that we might get 1 more named storm form somewhere in the Atlantic basin, before we close the books on the 2014 hurricane season.
Good Sunday everybody. Here's a video which I cannot prove to show what it claims, but nevertheless, the sea sure could be like this in the northern Pacific these days ...


Incredible Nuri Storm / in Pasific Ocean near Alaska | Nov 7, 2014
Published Nov 8, 2014; Definitely This is Typhoon Nuri; Golden Alaska; Incredible Storm in Pasific Ocean near Alaska | Nov 7, 2014


There's a fishing vessel named "Golden Alaska" from Seattle lingering off the coast of Washington and Oregon the last days:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/de/ais/home/centerx: -124.5878/centery:45.40062/zoom:8/mmsi:303686000

Current wave hights prediction. Click the map to get a loop:
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Breaking:Winter Storm Astro has been named.


#106 beat you to it.

TWC is going to name every snow event all Winter (except for storms that affect the Pacific N.W. because they always get ignored.)

Quoting barbamz:
Good Sunday everybody. Here's a video which I cannot prove to show what it claims, but nevertheless, the sea sure could be like this in the northern Pacific these days ...


Incredible Nuri Storm / in Pasific Ocean near Alaska | Nov 7, 2014
Published Nov 8, 2014; Definitely This is Typhoon Nuri; Golden Alaska; Incredible Storm in Pasific Ocean near Alaska | Nov 7, 2014


There's a fishing vessel named "Golden Alaska" from Seattle lingering off the coast of Washington and Oregon the last days:
http://www.marinetraffic.com/de/ais/home/centerx: -124.5878/centery:45.40062/zoom:8/mmsi:303686000


Looks like they have the wind at their back (Traveling in the same direction as the waves/wind).
12Z WRF & NAM are really unloading the rain across C FL tomight and Tomorrow as this Upper low moves.WRF has 3" to 5" totals across the area.
Bering Sea storm appears to be weakening a bit.

Quoting georgevandenberghe:

In FL I'd leave them up until Christmas. Texas Gulf Coast.. Done.
Never even took em out of the garage here in Houston.
Quoting 47n91w:
We don't name storms in the western Great Lakes, we'd run out of names. But with the Nov 11th storm coming up, we're referring to it by a three-letter word, starts with A and ends with S.

Last year my first snowfall over an inch occurred on Dec 3, whereas the current forecast for my area is 12-15 inches by Tuesday evening.



That's what a Winter Storm Warning is for. That's something people have no trouble understanding.
And as it remains calm and too mild in my region in Germany near Frankfurt, nothing new from Western and Central Mediterranean as well. Same soaking game over and over again ...



Parade of lows (female names this year):




Source: Consorzio LaMMA
A new heavy precipitation event is underway as a new trough enters W Europe/Mediterranean. It will be forming a cutoff low over the S-CNTRL Mediterranean over the next 48 hours, pretty much in the same area as the previous trough. Heavy precipitation is expected along and ahead of the cold front in the next 24 hours, with up to 50-80 mm of precipitation in SE France and extreme NW Italy. The heaviest precipitation is expected - again - in Liguria where well over 100 mm is expected locally.
Severe Weather Europe

Have a nice day everybody!
Rain has nitrogen picked up from the atmosphere. Lightning allows even more nitrogen to be "fixed." Mother Nature always seems to be best.

Just like a wave pool will never be as good as the real thing.

Quoting 102. Sfloridacat5:



The grass really needs it. We're getting brown patches in the yard where the automatic sprinkler misses. Hopefully this rain will help with that issue.
Also, nothing better than real rain.

I have a 7' cactus. It continues to live, but it doesn't grow much at all with tap water. But as soon as it gets actual rain water, it starts growing like crazy.
A good thunderstorm with a lot of lightning will make my cactus grow about 3" overnight. It's pretty remarkable to see.

RE--Post#49

Webberweather53
3:38 AM GMT on November 09, 2014

1
Although chances for wintry weather in the southern US aside from perhaps the climatologically favored areas of the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandle are almost too negligible to mention, this upcoming pattern with a formidable cold air mass thanks in part to the recurvature & intensification of Nuri in ET & especially a massive Alaskan Omega Block is starting to throw up a few red flags for me. Reason being, these Alaskan Blocks (especially Omega Blocks) tend to be rather transient in nature, splitting off from the mean flow & expelling pieces of energy over the pole & into northern Eurasia/Siberia, and usually end their evolution w/ energy undercutting them via the Pacific or subtropical jet, and if there's a trough still stuck over eastern North America as will be the case for the next week or so, this can make the weather quite *interesting* in the southern US, to say the least. It's November after all, and if nothing comes of this, I wouldn't be shocked, but I am certainly growing suspicious of this pattern...

If that pattern does occur , the chance for powerful fast moving winter storms will be increased...Like you said,,very interesting..That is a lot of energy being moved at a rapid pace.
It's interesting that Duluth's all time record snowfall started on October 31.

Duluth, Minnesota

Top Storm Total Snowfalls
1. 36.9 inches, Oct 31 - Nov 3, 1991
There was a rumble of thunder here a few minutes ago, although nothing shows up on the map where we are. of course it could be the little brat down the end of our street with his new Porsche. We are getting a little heavier rain than I thought.



I'm surprised there wasn't more mention of Haiyan yesterday. Hard to believe it was one year ago. (and the same people are fighting and correcting each other)

Many of us couldn't believe what we were seeing.

German astronaut Alexander Gerst is going to leave the ISS in some hours after a stay of half a year and a lot of exciting photos and thoughtful posts from space. Wish him luck for his way back to the ground!


Alexander Gerst: To realize how fragile our little blue planet is, I needed only a single glance.
Post from yesterday.
Quoting Grothar:


Get ready, it is going to get nippy.
Quoting 131. HaoleboySurfEC:

Rain has nitrogen picked up from the atmosphere. Lightning allows even more nitrogen to be "fixed." Mother Nature always seems to be best.

Just like a wave pool will never be as good as the real thing.




Like you, I have been arguing the rain water benefit to plants due to its higher nitrogen content for years, yet people look at me as if I'm crazy! Luckily I found some research supporting my position. Here is an excerpt as it pertains to plants:

"It is this hydrogen peroxide in rainwater that makes it so much more effective than tap water when given to plants. With the increased levels of atmospheric pollution, however, greater amounts of H202 react with air-borne toxins and never reach the ground. To compensate for this, many farmers have been increasing crop yields by spraying them with diluted hydrogen peroxide (5 to 16 ounces of 35% mixed with 20 gallons of water per acre). You can achieve the same beneficial effect with your house plants by adding 1 ounce of 3% hydrogen peroxide (or 16 drops of 35% solution) to every quart of water you give your plants. (It can also be made into an excellent safe insecticide. Simply spray your plants with 8 ounces of 3% peroxide mixed with 8 ounces of white sugar and one gallon of water.)

Hydrogen peroxide is odorless and colorless, but not tasteless. When stored under the proper conditions, it is a very stable compound. When kept in the absence of light and contaminants, it dismutates (breaks down) very slowly at the rate of about 10% a year. (This can be slowed even further by storing the liquid in the freezer.) It boils at 152 degrees C and freezes at minus 2 degrees C.

Here is the whole article:
Quoting 135. Grothar:

I'm surprised there wasn't more mention of Haiyan yesterday. Hard to believe it was one year ago. (and the same people are fighting and correcting each other)

Many of us couldn't believe what we were seeing.





Candles, torches and paper lanterns have lit up the night in the Philippines to mark the one year anniversary of Typhoon Haiyan.
Earlier, crowds walked through the worst-hit city of Tacloban as sirens sounded and bells rang at the exact time the storm hit.
There were also anti-government protests at what some see as the slow pace of rebuilding.


Quoting hydrus:

BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Interesting. Such cold, dry polar high pressure over them for most of the winter that they don't get much precip in the heart of winter.

New England benefits from proximity to Atlantic. Highest snowfalls (based on my experience) January and February although any time from Halloween to Tax Day is fair game.

Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

It's interesting that Duluth's all time record snowfall started on October 31.

Duluth, Minnesota

Top Storm Total Snowfalls
1. 36.9 inches, Oct 31 - Nov 3, 1991

Wow, January comes early for Texas.

Quoting 136. Grothar:




Quoting 145. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, January comes early for Texas.




Nothing worse than sitting on a cold saddle.
Forget Astro...this is mainly a northern Wisconsin-UP storm, so it should have a Finnish name.

Winter Storm Aino has such a nice ring to it...and you can break out all the Aino & Toivo jokes too.

Quoting 121. 47n91w:

We don't name storms in the western Great Lakes, we'd run out of names. But with the Nov 11th storm coming up, we're referring to it by a three-letter word, starts with A and ends with S.

Last year my first snowfall over an inch occurred on Dec 3, whereas the current forecast for my area is 12-15 inches by Tuesday evening.


Quoting 135. Grothar:

I'm surprised there wasn't more mention of Haiyan yesterday. Hard to believe it was one year ago. (and the same people are fighting and correcting each other)

Many of us couldn't believe what we were seeing.




Haiyan was about as close to perfection as a tropical cyclone can get. Shame that there wasn't any recon to see just how strong Haiyan was, I strongly believe it would have surpassed Tip if we had directly observed data.
Patrap,

We thought you moved to Ecuador or something. Hope you've been OK. We dodged another season with a you know what! I hope everything is well.

Quoting 146. Grothar:



Nothing worse than sitting on a cold saddle.


ROFL!
Thanks! I have read something about this before, but have never followed up. Now I will. Organic and inexpensive. Wonder if it has any anti-fungal properties...my roses got clobbered this hot, humid, wet summer. They are just now recovering with this cool, drier air. I didn't get squat for blooms in October and almost lost a couple of plants. Normally I've got a good show for Halloween, but I think I had one bloom to count for all of the 12 plants.

I've also briefly seen something about diluted household bleach as being beneficial, but again I didn't really follow up.

Quoting 139. capeflorida:



Like you, I have been arguing the rain water benefit to plants due to its higher nitrogen content for years, yet people look at me as if like I'm crazy! Luckily I found some research supporting my position. Here is an excerpt as it pertains to plants:

"It is this hydrogen peroxide in rainwater that makes it so much more effective than tap water when given to plants. With the increased levels of atmospheric pollution, however, greater amounts of H202 react with air-borne toxins and never reach the ground. To compensate for this, many farmers have been increasing crop yields by spraying them with diluted hydrogen peroxide (5 to 16 ounces of 35% mixed with 20 gallons of water per acre). You can achieve the same beneficial effect with your house plants by adding 1 ounce of 3% hydrogen peroxide (or 16 drops of 35% solution) to every quart of water you give your plants. (It can also be made into an excellent safe insecticide. Simply spray your plants with 8 ounces of 3% peroxide mixed with 8 ounces of white sugar and one gallon of water.)

Hydrogen peroxide is odorless and colorless, but not tasteless. When stored under the proper conditions, it is a very stable compound. When kept in the absence of light and contaminants, it dismutates (breaks down) very slowly at the rate of about 10% a year. (This can be slowed even further by storing the liquid in the freezer.) It boils at 152 degrees C and freezes at minus 2 degrees C.

Here is the whole article:

Quoting 105. Sfloridacat5:

"Polar Plunge" was the term used this morning on NBC.

Dylan Dreyer (NBCnews Meteorologist)explain that the Polar Vortex is always up in the Polar regions. The cold air currently coming down into the U.S. is a small part of Polar Vortex that's been cut off.

So she called it a "Polar Plunge."




The whole Polar Vortex sometimes plunges south to as far as 40N a few times a decade. THis is normal North American climatology.
Sitting on a cold saddle naked comes to mind.

lol

Quoting 146. Grothar:



Nothing worse than sitting on a cold saddle.
Quoting 146. Grothar:



Nothing worse than sitting on a cold saddle.


unless.....you're the horse?
Quoting 57. CosmicEvents:


Scott's ok in my book too.
Slightly more exuberant than I am but to each his own. He adds passion and enthusiasm and 300" of rain....

I'll third this sentiment. He overforecasts but I tend to be underwhelmed by everything, a significant bias of my own, and he catches stuff I initially miss.

The standard retort. Just think if that 300" was snow. :-)
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


The whole Polar Vortex sometimes plunges south to as far as 40N a few times a decade. THis is normal North American climatology.


Yeah, I was just referring to the term "Polar Plunge."
That's the first time I've heard a broadcast meteorologist use that term.

Al Roker was throwing around the "Polar Vortex" term last week.

I was wondering how many times I'll hear that term this Winter?

Quoting 149. Grothar:

Patrap,

We thought you moved to Ecuador or something. Hope you've been OK. We dodged another season with a you know what! I hope everything is well.




Tromso will be my final port me thinks later in Life.

We moved back Uptown recently,after Isaac moved us to Mid City in 2012. AT& T missed 2 scheduled net install dates so I got Nov and Dec free from them.

So expect a few bans prolly.

: P

Quoting 141. Grothar:


Now remember, Scott. If you are wrong, you can't play with the other bloggers for a week. :)


I won't be as I just mentioned the model. I never said we would I said the WRF model shows 3" of rain if not more in some areas of C FL. This model is typically really good with small mesoscale type systems. Interestingly enough is the Euro is similar with just 1" to 2.5". GFS doesn't show this so I guess we sit back and wait to see how this plays out once the upper low moves into FL Monday morning.

Quoting 153. HaoleboySurfEC:

Sitting on a cold saddle naked comes to mind.

lol




I would say getting thrown is worse. Especially naked.
Quoting SuperYooper:
Forget Astro...this is mainly a northern Wisconsin-UP storm, so it should have a Finnish name.

Winter Storm Aino has such a nice ring to it...and you can break out all the Aino & Toivo jokes too.



Here's Astro for the ones that are old enough to remember the Jetsons.

Hope you and yers are well over dere Gro.

Im compiling, well beginning to compile some Imagery, vids and other media for the K 10th anniversary entry Im doing for next Aug.

I would like to get some S. Fla werds from someone who experienced Her there as a Cat 1.

Firsthand accounts would be great.

Its going to be a lengthy entry so ill need that fo sho.



Quoting 161. Patrap:

Hope you and yers are wel over dere Gro.

Im compiling, well beginning to compile some Imagery, vids and other media for the K 10th anniversary entry Im doing for next Aug.

I would like to get some S. Fla werds from someone who experience Her there as a Cat 1.

Firsthand accounts would be great.

Its going to be a lengthy entry so ill need that fo sho.






K went right over our house. I will write you a little first hand account on your WUmail
Quoting 162. Grothar:



K went right over our house. I will right you a little first hand account on your WUmail


Egg-cellent,

and thanks too.





Quoting 156. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I was just referring to the term "Polar Plunge."
That's the first time I've heard a broadcast meteorologist use that term.

Al Roker was throwing around the "Polar Vortex" term last week.

I was wondering how many times I'll hear that term this Winter?




I wouldn't worry too much about those experts who use the wrong terms, SF. After all, most of them probably think "Gone With the Wind" was about a kid who lost his balloon.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Ruh Roh Reorge

Ris is not reather rerated.



Whoever made the Winter Storm names (TWC) must have watched the Jetsons.

Where else would you come up with the name Astro?
Things turned bad in St Martin.



Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Quoting 165. Grothar:



I wouldn't worry too much about those experts who use the wrong terms, SF. After all, most of them probably think "Gone With the Wind" was about a kid who lost his balloon.


"Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn"
Quoting 171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Keep how is Friday looking?
Nice surge of moisture headed up towards S.W. Florida. We need all we can get.

The people vacationing at the beach are probably not as happy. Only 62 degrees with light rain coming down.

Burlington Coat Factory is going to make a killing this year..





We will see about Friday GFS LOL.
Quoting 173. Climate175:

Keep how is Friday looking?




Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
looks like st. martin got it bad. worst damage ive seen this atlantic hurricane season and it never deserved classification
top left 5 cm top right 15 cm bottom left 30 cm bottom right alert level yellow is lowest red is highest
Quoting 178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.

So you think DC/Baltimore area could get a bit of snow on Friday? I'm not quite sure...
We are getting very heavy rain right now. Not very common for November.

Quoting 181. Climate175:

So you think DC/Baltimore area could get a bit of snow on Friday?
it will likely be wet snow very little ground accumulation ground is still too warm need a min of 10 days of below freezing temps to get the ground cold enough for it to stay
Quoting 183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will likely be wet snow very little ground accumulation ground is still too warm need a min of 10 days of below freezing temps to get the ground cold enough for it to stay
Yea, at least it will set the holiday mood early.
12Z GFS at 240 hours
Freezing temps over most of the U.S.
Live webcam

Link
I wrote a blog on the week ahead, a few extreme weather videos from last week & the lava threatening Pahoa, HI.

This was an interesting perspective that I didn't include. GEOS-5 shows ex-Nuri here, plowing into the Arctic. That is it there north of Alaska, diminished a bit but tearing through the polar cold, forcing it to spill down both sides of the globe.

Brad Panovich
Shared publicly - 12:04 PM
#arcticblast


The AO(Arctic Oscillation) & NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation) both go negative this week and stay there in both the ECMWF and GFS model guidance. #cold #arcticblast 
Quoting 133. Sfloridacat5:

It's interesting that Duluth's all time record snowfall started on October 31.

Duluth, Minnesota

Top Storm Total Snowfalls
1. 36.9 inches, Oct 31 - Nov 3, 1991



The Halloween Storm of 1991 is still remembered

12z GFS parallel, November 18th. Pretty darn cold all the way down to Florida!

If y'all missed DanFein's Wunderblog on using WU PWS data to make a lite-brite like temperature map it's worth checking out.
Quoting 191. CybrTeddy:

12z GFS parallel, November 18th. Pretty darn cold all the way down to Florida!




Isn't that an anomaly comparison map?
This is what NCEP/WPC sees for preciptiation for today through 0700 EST Monday. Most of the rain should be in south Florida, and that seems to be the case now. There's also a better chance of convective storms in south Florida, which would up the totals in isolated spots.



This is the modeled rainfall from 0700 Monday through 0700 Tuesday. It shows the heavy snow event for the north central US. The position of the low right off the NE coast of Florida will be the main determinant of how much additional rain Florida gets and where. If the low sets up 100 miles west of what's shown, the northeast and central parts of Florida's east coast could get 1" to 1.5" of rain. If it sets up where shown on the map, only the immediate east central coast will get any rain and that will be mostly showers with maybe 0.25". The models don't agree on a solution right now, with the GFS wanting to move the low NE away from Florida faster, which is reflected in the forecast map, and the Euro wanting to move it through much more slowly, which would be the solution that leads to higher rain totals.



Of course, no matter what the solution, Alabama's QPF remains at zero...again.

EDIT: The 18z maps just came out, so the maps now cover from 7:00 pm to 7:00 pm both days. The maps will change as each update is issued.
Quoting Grothar:


Isn't that an anomaly comparison map?
It is. I never can figure out all those color gradients but, assuming I'm not completely off, central Florida should be 20C below normal, which is pretty nippy. OTOH, I should be at about 8C below normal, which doesn't seem to be quite right to me. I don't now how they arrive at those anomalies, but they are usually nothing but some pretty loose guidance that far out.
I know is November,and nobody is looking towards the mid-Atlantic but the ULL at 20.5N 42W is looking interesting, not saying that is going to become tropical or subtropical storm, just curious, that's all. Any insights? ...

Quoting 198. sar2401:

It is. I never can figure out all those color gradients but, assuming I'm not completely off, central Florida should be 20C below normal, which is pretty nippy. OTOH, I should be at about 8C below normal, which doesn't seem to be quite right to me. I don't now how they arrive at those anomalies, but they are usually nothing but some pretty loose guidance that far out.

Graphics creators are more concerned with the prettiness of the image rather than its readability. Think it would help if there was a line contour for each fill.
Quoting 200. Drakoen:



Graphics creators are more concerned with the prettiness of the image rather than its readability. Think it would help if there was a line contour for each fill.

There are some weird ones..I do like the colors that they used for the water vapor images. It really helps me to determine the dryness at different heights.
Quoting 65. sar2401:

I'll take overrunning, underrunning, or right in the middle, as long as we finally get something wet, even if it has to melt first. I will say that the GFS for next Sunday shows a pretty unusual snow pattern for Alabama. It's rare, although not impossible, to get any snow in central Alabama and get none in the north or south Alabama. The only real snow we got in 2000 was January, and that was mostly in western AL. It was cold from mid-November thought December though.
Quoting 132. hydrus:

RE--Post#49

Webberweather53
3:38 AM GMT on November 09, 2014

1
Although chances for wintry weather in the southern US aside from perhaps the climatologically favored areas of the Texas & Oklahoma Panhandle are almost too negligible to mention, this upcoming pattern with a formidable cold air mass thanks in part to the recurvature & intensification of Nuri in ET & especially a massive Alaskan Omega Block is starting to throw up a few red flags for me. Reason being, these Alaskan Blocks (especially Omega Blocks) tend to be rather transient in nature, splitting off from the mean flow & expelling pieces of energy over the pole & into northern Eurasia/Siberia, and usually end their evolution w/ energy undercutting them via the Pacific or subtropical jet, and if there's a trough still stuck over eastern North America as will be the case for the next week or so, this can make the weather quite *interesting* in the southern US, to say the least. It's November after all, and if nothing comes of this, I wouldn't be shocked, but I am certainly growing suspicious of this pattern...

If that pattern does occur , the chance for powerful fast moving winter storms will be increased...Like you said,,very interesting..That is a lot of energy being moved at a rapid pace.



I greatly appreciate the feedback and input from you guys and I think the key take away here is despite the evident climatological limitations, the synoptic pattern is obviously favorable, especially in seeing not just November 2000, but also December 1-3 2002, (which is showing up in nearly every run of the 6-10/8-14 day 500mb analogs), a pattern which preceded an absolutely massive ice storm in NC...



I've seen the Dec 2002 analog at least 12 separate times in just the last day and a half, talk about persistence...





I would like to see the snowpack build across the northern tier of the US however, because this would help refrigerate the cold air that would be advected further south, not to mention, I've noticed even in the short span of time I have practiced weather forecasting, aside from Canadian Clippers, mid-latitude cyclones in winter tend to have preference to develop near the edge of snowpacks where baroclinicity is induced by the vast differences in albedo which exist between regions w/ & w/o a snowpack in place, hence feeding back to large temperature gradients that feed these storms, thus you'll tend to often see in arctic outbreaks such as the one we're about to encounter, the snowpack slowly fills in from northwest to southeast, with each subsequent storm generally tracking near or to the south & east of the antecedent system & it's associated snowpack...

Additionally, Equatorial -VP anomalies in the Kelvin Wave band don't look poised to fully settle within the climacteric 30-60E longitudinal band until or just before November 20th or so, therefore I will continue to exercise patience regarding this pattern. Even if no wintry weather comes to fruition, I would see no reason to get upset or concerned, after all we have a solid 3-4 months .



By the way, here's a nice site which shows Ertel Isentropic & Tropopause Potential Vorticity...
Link

Fairly easy to tell even to an untrained eye, thanks to Yuri, a massive upper level anticyclonic wave breaking event occurred over the North Pacific & Alaska, which will feed back into an robust mid-level Omega Ridge over Alaska & the Yukon Territory...
Quoting Skyepony:
If y'all missed DanFein's Wunderblog on using WU PWS data to make a lite-brite like temperature map it's worth checking out.
That's some pretty neat Arduino work he's doing. He'd better pay that traffic citation from the City of Oakland he's using under his Arduino station though or he's going to get his car booted the next time he parks in the city. They can't take a joke about things like that. :-)

Finally some heavier rain moving into my area just south of Fort Myers. It's been raining all day but very lightly.

Officially we're up to .43" (total) for this rain event.
But this new rain moving into the area should raise that up a bit.

Quoting Drakoen:


Graphics creators are more concerned with the prettiness of the image rather than its readability. Think it would help if there was a line contour for each fill.
That's one of the reasons I like the NWS/WPC sites. They usually offer an option between contours and color fill. I'm partially color blind, and I just can't properly interpret a map with 30 or more gradations of color. However, if I was a TV weather guy, I'd use the color fill maps, since they are only loose guidance past five days anyway, and they look a lot more dramatic if I was talking about the next polar vortex. :-)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Finally some heavier rain moving into my area just south of Fort Myers. It's been raining all day but very lightly.

Officially we're up to .43" (total) for this rain event.
But this new rain moving into the area should raise that up a bit.

Like I said yesterday, south Florida and maybe the Bahamas could be the big rainfall winners from this system. If the low develops off the northeast and can sit there through tomorrow, the circulation pattern is going to favor sucking all the Gulf moisture toward you. South Florida has a decent chance of seeing 2.00" from this if the low behaves right.
RE- 202. Webberweather53
6:27 PM GMT on November 09, 2014


I will post some of my findings about this coming winter as soon as I can. I put together a couple things some may find interesting.
Aside from the system that will affect the upper plains region in the short term, in the long term (early next week) models suggest the next big system will originate over Texas and the Gulf of Mexico with the potential to be a significant inland storm stretching from the lower plains to the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys to the interior Northeast. Models are working out the kinks with this system but the ECMWF and PGFS 12z look somewhat similar with their depiction of a significant trough coming down and increasing baroclinicity across the Gulf of Mexico. Will be something to keep an eye on this week as the pattern favors a storm assuming that HP isn't suppressive.
By end of the ECMWF 12z there's snow (to some degree) in all but 3 or so states.
Quoting 204. Sfloridacat5:

Finally some heavier rain moving into my area just south of Fort Myers. It's been raining all day but very lightly.

Officially we're up to .43" (total) for this rain event.
But this new rain moving into the area should raise that up a bit.




Surprisingly some areas in Sarasota and Manatee County had more than an inch of rain. One rain gauge had over 2 inches in Coastal Sarasota. Bradenton and Punta Gorda had around an inch. The Tampa Bay area had 0.5-0.75 generally. Overall, the forecast was pretty much on target with what was expected.
Quoting Webberweather53:


I greatly appreciate the feedback and input from you guys and I think the key take away here is despite the evident climatological limitations, the synoptic pattern is obviously favorable, especially in seeing not just November 2000, but also December 1-3 2002, (which is showing up in nearly every run of the 6-10/8-14 day 500mb analogs), a pattern which preceded an absolutely massive ice storm in NC...
It appears the cold front this weekend is going to be a close call for south Alabama. It will certainly get below freezing Friday and Saturday mornings, maybe even into the mid-20's. Thankfully, this is not the setup where we get ice storms but, depending on how far the cold air advances compared to the moisture ahead of it, this is a pattern we do see snow from the overrunning precipitation just making it into the cold air. It's generally a four to six hour event with no chance for accumulations, since the ground will be too warm, but it's enough to get the kids excited. What happens for the two weeks after this weekend gets more interesting as there will be a lot of cold air in place, the ground will be much colder than this weekend, and there's no evidence of a typical Plains low developing that could set up a decent return flow from the Gulf and warm us up much.

Each cold front is going to reinforce the cold air regime, and this kind of pattern almost inevitably ends up with snow. As long as we don't get a low form in the Gulf on the tail end of one of these fronts, it still would be more of a winter wonderland event rather than something with lots of high impacts. If a low in the Gulf forms and heads this way, that's when we're in trouble. That usually ends up with an ice storm followed by snow like we had last January 28. These are the storms that cause big trouble, not just something that we weather geeks like. The microscale pattern is almost impossible to predict more than eight hours in advance, and that leads to serious forecast busts if the meteorologists are off by even 50 miles. We will see how long this cold pattern continues. It's been my experience that a cold period from about Thanksgiving to Christmas leads to a warmer and drier January. However, nothing seems to be following the patterns that I'm used to over the last couple of years, and the winter of 2014-2015 may not either.
The 988 mb low will be a player the third week of November. Could make for some record low temps if it manages to move into Canada.

Quoting Jedkins01:


Surprisingly some areas in Sarasota and Manatee County had more than an inch of rain. One rain gauge had over 2 inches in Coastal Sarasota. Bradenton and Punta Gorda had around an inch. The Tampa Bay area had 0.5-0.75 generally. Overall, the forecast was pretty much on target with what was expected.


Yeah, yesterday evening the main punch of moisture came ashore just north of Fort Myers. For many hours it was raining between Fort Myers and Tampa, while we were only experiencing sprinkles.


Updated 3:00pm
You can see how the rain focus was just north of Fort Myers.
Seems like we have gone from watching the tropics to winter weather in less than 2 weeks. Quite the switch. I don't know what to expect.

Quoting 211. sar2401:

It appears the cold front this weekend is going to be a close call for south Alabama. It will certainly get below freezing Friday and Saturday mornings, maybe even into the mid-20's. Thankfully, this is not the setup where we get ice storms but, depending on how far the cold air advances compared to the moisture ahead of it, this is a pattern we do see snow from the overrunning precipitation just making it into the cold air. It's generally a four to six hour event with no chance for accumulations, since the ground will be too warm, but it's enough to get the kids excited. What happens for the two weeks after this weekend gets more interesting as there will be a lot of cold air in place, the ground will be much colder than this weekend, and there's no evidence of a typical Plains low developing that could set up a decent return flow from the Gulf and warm us up much.

Each cold front is going to reinforce the cold air regime, and this kind of pattern almost inevitably ends up with snow. As long as we don't get a low form in the Gulf on the tail end of one of these fronts, it still would be more of a winter wonderland event rather than something with lots of high impacts. If a low in the Gulf forms and heads this way, that's when we're in trouble. That usually ends up with an ice storm followed by snow like we had last January 28. These are the storms that cause big trouble, not just something that we weather geeks like. The microscale pattern is almost impossible to predict more than eight hours in advance, and that leads to serious forecast busts if the meteorologists are off by even 50 miles. We will see how long this cold pattern continues. It's been my experience that a cold period from about Thanksgiving to Christmas leads to a warmer and drier January. However, nothing seems to be following the patterns that I'm used to over the last couple of years, and the winter of 2014-2015 may not either.
Quoting 145. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wow, January comes early for Texas.



Tell me about it! Starting Tuesday for the next seven days highs are supposed to be in the 50's with lows in the 30's and 40's!
That's a durastic change from the 70's and 80's we have had most of this fall.

Quoting 216. TylerStanfield:


Tell me about it! Starting Tuesday for the next seven days highs are supposed to be in the 50's with lows in the 30's and 40's!
That's a durastic change from the 70's and 80's we have had most of this fall.
Depending on where you are you'll love the ECMWF 12z. Snow in at least half the state.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Seems like we have gone from watching the tropics to winter weather in less than 2 weeks. Quite the switch. I don't know what to expect.

There is one low out in the mid-Atlantic that's trying to develop, but it's going to crushed by the dry air surrounding it, just like so many others this season. The rains that we're seeing in the Caribbean and up into Florida is not from organized systems, just relatively small small disturbances with good moisture transport. The entire western Caribbean and most of the Gulf are stuck in the same dry air pattern. Water temperatures in the Gulf and western Caribbean are also starting to fall, and that rate of fall will increase with each strong polar front that makes it far offshore. It's always possible to get a surprise storm but the most likely development areas (Gulf and western Caribbean) make that nearly impossible in the short term. I still keep an eye on the tropics hoping for a well-behaved tropical storm to bring me some rain but the pattern is not encouraging. Given that most of us post about weather that's making an impact in or near where we live, I don't find it unusual that most of the talk has turned to cold weather and not the tropics.

It looks like Nino region 3.4 may top 1C this week for the first time since 2012.

Quoting 202. Webberweather53:



I greatly appreciate the feedback and input from you guys and I think the key take away here is despite the evident climatological limitations, the synoptic pattern is obviously favorable, especially in seeing not just November 2000, but also December 1-3 2002, (which is showing up in nearly every run of the 6-10/8-14 day 500mb analogs), a pattern which preceded an absolutely massive ice storm in NC...



I've seen the Dec 2002 analog at least 12 separate times in just the last day and a half, talk about persistence...





I would like to see the snowpack build across the northern tier of the US however, because this would help refrigerate the cold air that would be advected further south, not to mention, I've noticed even in the short span of time I have practiced weather forecasting, aside from Canadian Clippers, mid-latitude cyclones in winter tend to have preference to develop near the edge of snowpacks where baroclinicity is induced by the vast differences in albedo which exist between regions w/ & w/o a snowpack in place, hence feeding back to large temperature gradients that feed these storms, thus you'll tend to often see in arctic outbreaks such as the one we're about to encounter, the snowpack slowly fills in from northwest to southeast, with each subsequent storm generally tracking near or to the south & east of the antecedent system & it's associated snowpack...

Additionally, Equatorial -VP anomalies in the Kelvin Wave band don't look poised to fully settle within the climacteric 30-60E longitudinal band until or just before November 20th or so, therefore I will continue to exercise patience regarding this pattern. Even if no wintry weather comes to fruition, I would see no reason to get upset or concerned, after all we have a solid 3-4 months .



By the way, here's a nice site which shows Ertel Isentropic & Tropopause Potential Vorticity...
Link

Fairly easy to tell even to an untrained eye, thanks to Yuri, a massive upper level anticyclonic wave breaking event occurred over the North Pacific & Alaska, which will feed back into an robust mid-level Omega Ridge over Alaska & the Yukon Territory...



I lived right by the Forsyth-Guilford County line then, from 2002 to about 2005 I missed so much school due to inclement weather.
No, I agree the door has essentially swung shut on the tropics. I'm commenting on the abrupt and early onset of what appears to be a mid-winter pattern.

I thought we might have had a bit more of a transition, but we've flipped so quickly. Only a couple of weeks ago I was surfing in trunks. Now I'm going straight to my winter gear the next time I paddle out.

Quoting 218. sar2401:

There is one low out in the mid-Atlantic that's trying to develop, but it's going to crushed by the dry air surrounding it, just like so many others this season. The rains that we're seeing in the Caribbean and up into Florida is not from organized systems, just relatively small small disturbances with good moisture transport. The entire western Caribbean and most of the Gulf are stuck in the same dry air pattern. Water temperatures in the Gulf and western Caribbean are also starting to fall, and that rate of fall will increase with each strong polar front that makes it far offshore. It's always possible to get a surprise storm but the most likely development areas (Gulf and western Caribbean) make that nearly impossible in the short term. I still keep an eye on the tropics hoping for a well-behaved tropical storm to bring me some rain but the pattern is not encouraging. Given that most of us post about weather that's making an impact in or near where we live, I don't find it unusual that most of the talk has turned to cold weather and not the tropics.
Quoting 217. Drakoen:


Depending on where you are you'll love the ECMWF 12z. Snow in at least half the state.



Hi Drak. Any model showing cool air reaching south Florida?
Quoting 223. Gearsts:




Hopefully an EL NINO will materialize during the dry/boring season... lol.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi Drak. Any model showing cool air reaching south Florida?


Looks like southern Florida is going to miss out on most of the cold air.
That could change, but it looks like the big punch of Arctic air will plunge down into Texas/central U.S.

North Florida could see some cold air around November 19th, but not so much for S. Florida.

Models could completely change, but no real cold air in the near future (except today - it's chilly outside with temps only in the 60s over here in S.W. Fl.)
Quoting Drakoen:

Depending on where you are you'll love the ECMWF 12z. Snow in at least half the state.

please post the ECMWF 12z run. Please. I wanna see my beautiful, precious, shiny snow
been drizzling for the past 24 hrs every once in awhile you can see a drop. e cen florida
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
No, I agree the door has essentially swung shut on the tropics. I'm commenting on the abrupt and early onset of what appears to be a mid-winter pattern.

I thought we might have had a bit more of a transition, but we've flipped so quickly. Only a couple of weeks ago I was surfing in trunks. Now I'm going straight to my winter gear the next time I paddle out.

Indeed. I went from waking Radar Dog at midnight, when it finally got below 80, to needing my parka for night walks. I remember last season going out with a whimper also, which led to a pretty crummy winter but a nice, wet spring, except for our one crazy 15" storm on April 30. We'll see if we get another repeat this year.
Here's the GFS snowfall prediction. Major snow for upper Great Lakes region.
Quoting CaribBoy:


That loop is hypnotizing.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Here's the GFS snowfall prediction. Major snow for upper Great Lakes region.

Winter storm Albus, is that you?
SOI & ESPI aren't really indicating the same thing again. ESPI is down to 0.24. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more neutral turn again in maybe a few weeks. It may just be another step toward El Nino as opposed to a head long plunge.

It's been drizzling here for about a day, 0.46" so far. None of it has run off for a change.
can anybody post the ECMWF snowfall forecast?
Quoting 62901IL:

Winter storm Albus, is that you?


Winter Storm Astro - like the dog from the Jetsons.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Winter Storm Astro - like the dog from the Jetsons.

I've got my own list.
Quoting 62901IL:

I've got my own list.


Why not?

Polar Vortex Barry is currently pushing down in the Northern Plains.
Polar Vortex Andy hit a couple weeks (8 or 9 days ago) with record lows all the way down in Florida.


Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Why not?

Polar Vortex Barry is currently pushing down in the Northern Plains.
Polar Vortex Andy hit a couple weeks ago with record lows all the way down in Florida.



hahaha. I don't name polar vortexes, I name winter storms.
but last year I named a winter storm (december 5-7) andy.
Quoting 62901IL:

hahaha. I don't name polar vortexes, I name winter storms.
but last year I named a winter storm (december 5-7) andy.


My joke was aimed at TWC not you. I think they get a little crazy with the naming of pretty much every Winter system all season.
We currently have a named Winter Storm (Astro) and TWC has been showing a show about wrecker tow truck.
241. DDR
Good evening
Itcz strenghtening over Trinidad right now,rain :p

Quoting 234. 62901IL:

can anybody post the ECMWF snowfall forecast?
No they cannot. It's proprietary. You have to receive permission.
Ali Baba would make a good name. So would William.
Nice steady gentle rain coming down here. We should be up around .6"-.7" or so. I'll have to check.
Checked and Wunderground says only .38" here at Page Field, which is our official reporting station.
Many seem to forget that wunderground has ECMWF parameters that include precip and thickness. If you read the thicknesses, 850s, and surface temps, you can figure out where it is going to snow.
The rain is still spotty in south and south central Florida and almost non-existent north of Melbourne. There is quite a bit of lightning starting to show up in the area of West Palm Beach and offshore toward the Bahamas.



The Miami radar shows a line of convective storms headed toward Freeport and Grand Bahama, and most of the lighting seems to be concentrated between there and WPB.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We currently have a named Winter Storm (Astro) and TWC has been showing a show about wrecker tow truck.
Well, I guess they'll need quite a few tow trucks before Astro gets done working over the northland. :-)
Wunderground needs updating.
This shows we've had .59"
And importantly it's still raining.
Quoting sar2401:
Well, I guess they'll need quite a few tow trucks before Astro gets done working over the northland. :-)


TWC did break into the wrecker show for a 30 sec. to 1 minute update a little earlier on the Winter Storm.

If the storm is bad enough to need a name, I would assume there would be live coverage of it.

great...now i want to sit on a cold saddle naked...thanks for the idea :)
You can always get the ECMWF covering the parameters mentioned by Drak at the ECMWF site here. Make sure you use the new ECMWF site as noted in the URL since the old site doesn't work correctly with Java a lot of the time, and the ECMWF insists on using Java for loops. The temperatures and standard deviations from the norm are pretty impressive for next Sunday if it all comes to pass the way the ECMWF is forecasting.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


TWC did break into the wrecker show for a 30 sec. to 1 minute update a little earlier on the Winter Storm.

If the storm is bad enough to need a name, I would assume there would be live coverage of it.

There's nothing actually happening yet. The snow's expected to start after 0300 so there's not many visuals now. I'm sure the TWC parkas are at the ready for when they need to go stand outside in the snow and look like fools though. :-o
Cool and dreary day. I don't think we got out of the 60's (West Palm/Lake Worth). First time since March I've worn a jacket.
A lot of thunder rumbling over us and a lot of lightning over the ocean by us in Fort Lauderdale, though nothing showing on the map.

255. DDR
Still raining by the buckets in north and north- east Trinidad,i got 2.5 inches and still pouring.
Tonight, due to the 25th anniversary, Berlin Wall fell for a second time - or better: vanished into the sky as the balloons of the installation of a light border - visualizing the course of the dreadful wall - were released into sky.





Berlin Wall: Thousands of balloons released to mark fall
BBC News with video, 9 November 2014 Last updated at 22:43 GMT
Some 8,000 helium balloons have been released into the night sky over Germany's capital at the culmination of events to mark the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. ...

Weather in eastern Germany thankfully had been fair for these million of people cramping the streets of the city tonight.


Excuse the off topic post, but it's an emotional day for Germans and may be a sign of hope for others as well.

And here is the famous soundtrack from 1989 and following years (as it refers to the wind, it's weather related, lol):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-IBI9I626o

"Wind of Change" is a power ballad written by Klaus Meine, vocalist of German rock band Scorpions. It appeared on their 1990 album Crazy World, but did not become a worldwide hit single until 1991 - just after the failed coup that collapsed the Soviet Communist party - when it topped the charts in Germany and across Europe and hit No. 4 in the United States and No. 2 in the United Kingdom. It later appeared on the band's 1995 live album Live Bites, their 2000 album with the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra, Moment of Glory, and on their 2001 unplugged album Acoustica. ...

Lyrics

I follow the Moskva
And down to Gorky Park
Listening to the wind of change

An August summer night
Soldiers passing by
Listening to the wind of change

The world is closing in
And did you ever think
That we could be so close, like brothers

The future's in the air
I can feel it everywhere
Blowing with the wind of change

Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow dream away
In the wind of change

Walking down the street
And distant memories
Are buried in the past forever ...

The wind of change blows straight
Into the face of time
Like a storm wind that will ring
The freedom bell for peace of mind
Let your balalaika sing
What my guitar wants to say

Take me to the magic of the moment
On a glory night
Where the children of tomorrow share their dreams
With you and me ....


All the best from Germany!
Well, the boys over in Tampa have finally stopped looking at models and started looking at actual synoptic conditions. They seem a little baffled that the NAM, once again, may have been a bit overaggressive in forecasting rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
JUST MARGINAL MOISTURE DESPITE HAVING FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR -15C AS THE LOW MOVES
BY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT
REALLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM KEEPS MUCH MORE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND
DEPICTS VERY STRONG LIFT IN THE 650 TO 400MB LAYER. IN FACT...THE
NAM WOULD FAVOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY.

AFTER LOOKING AT THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... I
AM LED TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN ITS DISPLAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO
WORK BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
PASSING US BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OR
EAST OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN WE SEE. FOR NOW I AM HEDGING ON SEEING ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND UPPER
70S SOUTH.
Quoting 257. sar2401:

Well, the boys over in Tampa have finally stopped looking at models and started looking at actual synoptic conditions. They seem a little baffled that the NAM, once again, may have been a bit overaggressive in forecasting rainfall.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
ANOTHER DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MONDAY EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
JUST MARGINAL MOISTURE DESPITE HAVING FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT. 500MB TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR -15C AS THE LOW MOVES
BY. MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THERE WILL NOT
REALLY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE ORGANIZED SHOWERS.
MEANWHILE...THE NAM KEEPS MUCH MORE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND
DEPICTS VERY STRONG LIFT IN THE 650 TO 400MB LAYER. IN FACT...THE
NAM WOULD FAVOR LOTS OF CLOUDS AND CONTINUED HIGH RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY.

AFTER LOOKING AT THE EXTENT OF DRY AIR IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... I
AM LED TO BELIEVE THAT THE NAM IS A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN ITS DISPLAY
OF MOISTURE RETURN. SOME LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRY TO
WORK BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TAKES SHAPE
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
PASSING US BY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OR
EAST OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL ALSO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE
RETURN WE SEE. FOR NOW I AM HEDGING ON SEEING ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S NORTH AND CENTRAL...AND UPPER
70S SOUTH.



When did they "finally stop looking at the models" and why do you say that? I don't really see what the issue is, they are taking note that there isn't enough moisture behind the jet axis for rainfall despite the dynamics. It wasn't like rainfall was expected in Central Florida today, it was expected by them to end by morning, and it did.
Quoting barbamz:
Tonight, due to the 25th anniversary, Berlin Wall fell for a second time - or better: vanished into the sky as the balloons of the installation of a light border - visualizing the course of the dreadfull wall - were released into sky.

All the best from Germany!
Wow. 25 years. I seriously never thought in my lifetime that I'd see that wall come down or the failure of Soviet-style communism. I remember thinking what a great time this was for the world, with all the Warsaw Pact countries finally becoming free of the Soviet Union and little countries like Slovenia, that had never been free in their history, now having a chance to be part of the world of nations. Everything hasn't gone exactly how we'd all like to see it but it's still a better world than it was 25 years ago. Not perfect, but better. Thanks for posting this, Barb. As usual, our media has almost zero coverage of the important anniversary.

Now that I think about it, I guess you have to be at least over 40 or so to even understand what a moment that was. For many people, it's just another date to learn in school to pass a history exam.
Quoting 259. sar2401:

Wow. 25 years. I seriously never thought in my lifetime that I'd see that wall come down or the failure of Soviet-style communism. I remember thinking what a great time this was for the world ... [snip]
Now that I think about it, I guess you have to be at least over 40 or so to even understand what a moment that was. For many people, it's just another date to learn in school to pass a history exam.


I was born in 1960, so I remember very well me sitting in front of the telly 25 years ago and crying, Sar. Those years had been like a fairy tale, politically. Countries to the east were like non existing for us, further away than the moon, and I would never have imagined to ever post (Internet, huh?) videos from - let's say: - tornadoes in Russia and flooding in Bulgaria to the world, lol.

Edit: Concerning flooding: Have a look at these photo galleries from flooded Slovenia! Bad!!
Quoting Jedkins01:



When did they "finally stop looking at the models" and why do you say that? I don't really see what the issue is, they are taking note that there isn't enough moisture behind the jet axis for rainfall despite the dynamics. It wasn't like rainfall was expected in Central Florida today, it was expected by them to end by morning, and it did.
Go back and read the previous discussions. Almost all of it was about models and none of it was actual conditions upstream.

Sorry, but there is an over reliance on models in forecasting sometimes. Florida is not an island, and what's happening with the sensible weather to the north and west really will have an effect in a place like Tampa. I've been saying for at least three days that this event would not play out as most of the models forecast, and that was based mostly on the synoptics of what was happening along the Gulf and over into the BOC. When there's a low that's supposed to bring a significant amount of rain that's going to develop in the BOC and, 12 hours before the rain was forecast to begin, the low hadn't developed, it's not likely the storm is going to follow the models. When the trough from the north was supposed to reinforce the low that wasn't there and add additional moisture but is moving through Alabama and north Florida completely dry and dragging a lot of cold, dry air behind it, it's unlikely the models are going to be right about both the location and extent of rainfall. The extent of the dry air headed toward Florida has been apparent for over 24 hours. There are times when forecasters in Florida have nothing but models to go on. This wasn't one of those times.
41/70 Saturday and 55/70 today. Will probably drop below 55 by midnight. Trace of rain last night. Last measurable rain Oct 15.
You're welcome.

Quoting 250. WaterWitch11:

great...now i want to sit on a cold saddle naked...thanks for the idea :)
CNN hyping the cold snap. Focusing on Great Falls MT forecast to hit -9 F.

Naturally they don't mention that Great Falls hit -10 Oct 27, 1919. And -16 on November 2, 1991.
Quoting barbamz:


I was born in 1960, so I remember very well me sitting in front of the telly 25 years ago and crying, Sar. Those years had been like a fairy tale, politically. Countries to the east were like non existing for us, further away than the moon, and I wood never have imagined to ever post (Internet, huh?) videos from - let's say: - tornadoes in Russia and flooding in Bulgaria to the world, lol.
I shed a few tears myself as I watched what seemed like a dream come true. I never thought I would ever be able to visit my late wife's homeland in Slovenia, then just a province of Yugoslavia, freely and without all the bureaucratic paperwork and strange looking guys following me around. You can imagine how far away places like Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, and Romania were to we Americans. I first went to Yugoslavia in 1984, and many of my friends were convinced I was never coming back after getting thrown in prison for who knows what. Now we can just pick up and fly almost anywhere n the former Eastern Bloc countries with no more than a visa that's easy to get. The idea of seeing any kind of non-government approved video coming out of any of those countries was not even in the realm of possibility. What a different world we live in now.
266. VR46L
Quoting 264. DonnieBwkGA:

CNN hyping the cold snap. Focusing on Great Falls MT forecast to hit -9 F.

Naturally they don't mention that Great Falls hit -10 Oct 27, 1919. And -16 on November 2, 1991.


LOL .


(withdrew comment could get me in trouble )


beautiful swirl off AK now

Quoting 264. DonnieBwkGA:

CNN hyping the cold snap. Focusing on Great Falls MT forecast to hit -9 F.

Naturally they don't mention that Great Falls hit -10 Oct 27, 1919. And -16 on November 2, 1991.

Don't see any hype in that article, although using the term 'bomb cyclone' is weird. Just because it's been colder before doesn't mean it's not cold.
Quoting 261. sar2401:

Go back and read the previous discussions. Almost all of it was about models and none of it was actual conditions upstream.

Sorry, but there is an over reliance on models in forecasting sometimes. Florida is not an island, and what's happening with the sensible weather to the north and west really will have an effect in a place like Tampa. I've been saying for at least three days that this event would not play out as most of the models forecast, and that was based mostly on the synoptics of what was happening along the Gulf and over into the BOC. When there's a low that's supposed to bring a significant amount of rain that's going to develop in the BOC and, 12 hours before the rain was forecast to begin, the low hadn't developed, it's not likely the storm is going to follow the models. When the trough from the north was supposed to reinforce the low that wasn't there and add additional moisture but is moving through Alabama and north Florida completely dry and dragging a lot of cold, dry air behind it, it's unlikely the models are going to be right about both the location and extent of rainfall. The extent of the dry air headed toward Florida has been apparent for over 24 hours. There are times when forecasters in Florida have nothing but models to go on. This wasn't one of those times.


I don't think its a fair assumption to say that just because they only discussed the models in previous discussions that there was a forecast issue. Sure its true that some will follow exactly what a model says. But I don't see any evidence the NWS in Ruskin did this. In fact their forecast was very accurate for an event with model inconsistency combined with some model inaccuracy like you pointed out. The NWS consistently was forecasting an event that featured an overrunning event for the forecast area, with 0.4-0.7 inch in the Central counties, 0.25-0.50 for the northern Counties, and 0.75-1.00 in the southern counties, with maybe a few local spots near the coast getting more than that.

They also expected the timing to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. Well, they showed this for a quite a while, and the forecast turned out very accurate. Which by the way, isn't a small feat, as rainfall forecasting is a difficult thing, but they did very well especially in light of model issues, they didn't jump around between showing less than 0.25 one day and 2 inches the next like the GFS was doing at one point.

Given this, I don't really see what the criticism was about, it seems quite clear the NWS handled it well.
Quoting 265. sar2401:

What a different world we live in now.


So true, Sar, and a lot to loose now, not liking at all recent news of bombers from Russia grazing the borders of NATO again ... (And please correct the "wood" into "would" in the quoted part of my post, lol. I'm so embarrassed because I always need some second guesses about orthography to avoid the worst mistakes, ummm.)


The latest of Ex-Nuri (click to get the whole AP-article)

The weakened storm was expected to bring gale-force winds to the Alaska mainland's southwestern coast, typical for this time of year, weather service meteorologist Shaun Baines said.
"The worst conditions were out where there's no people," he said Saturday.
On Shemya Island, 120 civilian contractors staff an early warning radar installation for the U.S. military. Eareckson Air Station on the island 1,500 miles southwest Anchorage saw minor facility damage, Alaskan Command public affairs officer Tommie Baker said.
The corners of a roof were bent back and some dumpsters moved around, but no roof was torn off and the dumpters didn't slam into any vehicles or buildings, Baker said. Workers locked themselves inside to wait out the storm. ...
any update on 18z model runs?
Quoting 262. DonnieBwkGA:

41/70 Saturday and 55/70 today. Will probably drop below 55 by midnight. Trace of rain last night. Last measurable rain Oct 15.


We picked up around 0.4" here north of Orlando, so at least we did get a bit of rain. Not nearly enough though.
272. VR46L
Quoting 270. 62901IL:

any update on 18z model runs?


You are getting some white stuff I think

Quoting barbamz:


[snip]
Edit: Concerning flooding: Have a look at these photo galleries from flooded Slovenia! Bad!!

I know where that is, south of Ljubljana along the Sava River, one of the few real low spots in that part of the country. It gets flooded frequently, and most people have raised their homes, so that's worse flooding in the marshes than I've seen before. It didn't get Ljubljana so it must have been a storm that dumped further south. Ljubljana is in great danger of a bad flood some day.

Funny, and in line with what we we talking about earlier, the video opened with a commercial for Pampers that was partially in English. Those kinds of things still amaze me, first because there's a commercial at all, and second because they are advertising a US product. Twenty-five years ago it never would have happened. I also found out my spoken Slovenian is really awful now. :-)
I'm going to post something unprecendented on this blog..long range model run..

the most travel calendar year of thanksgiving week per the GFS is going to be horrible per the 18z GFS..better pack a thanksgiving dinner in your suitcase while you hunker down in the airport..all of this leads to delays and trickle effects at all the major airports across the country...of course this is all speculation and in no way set in stone but interesting none the less to see thanksgiving might be share with complete strangers..





Quoting 274. ncstorm:

I'm going to post something unprecendented on this blog..long range model run..

the most travel calendar year of thanksgiving week per the GFS is going to be horrible per the 18z GFS..better pack a thanksgiving dinner in your suitcase while you hunker down in the airport..all of this leads to delays and trickle effects at all the major airports across the country...of course this is all speculation and in no way set in stone but interesting none the less to see thanksgiving might be share with complete strangers..






it should come up along western side of the spine of the apps howler from the gulf non tropical intense fall storm
Quoting barbamz:


So true, Sar, and a lot to loose now, not liking at all recent news of bombers from Russia grazing the borders of NATO again ... (And please correct the "wood" into "would" in the quoted part of my post, lol. I'm so embarrassed because I always need some second guesses about orthography to avoid the worst mistakes, ummm.)


The latest of Ex-Nuri (click to get the whole AP-article)

The weakened storm was expected to bring gale-force winds to the Alaska mainland's southwestern coast, typical for this time of year, weather service meteorologist Shaun Baines said.
"The worst conditions were out where there's no people," he said Saturday.
On Shemya Island, 120 civilian contractors staff an early warning radar installation for the U.S. military. Eareckson Air Station on the island 1,500 miles southwest Anchorage saw minor facility damage, Alaskan Command public affairs officer Tommie Baker said.
The corners of a roof were bent back and some dumpsters moved around, but no roof was torn off and the dumpters didn't slam into any vehicles or buildings, Baker said. Workers locked themselves inside to wait out the storm. ...


You have nothing to be embarrassed about. Your English is better than a lot of our native English speakers. I doubt many of us would even know the meaning "orthography" without looking it up.

That air station gets all kinds of horrible weather so they're pretty used to it. The barracks even have Alaskan equivalent of hurricane shutters, which you can see on the building to right of the truck taken on a normal winter day there. :-)


WATCH LIVE @ 7:15 pm ET: Space Station Crew Returns to Earth
by SPACE.com Staff | November 09, 2014 08:26am ET
NASA will air a live webcast showing the landing of three crewmembers heading back to Earth from the International Space Station on Sunday (Nov. 9). You can watch it live here starting with hatch closure at 7:15 p.m. EST (0015 Nov. 10 GMT). The landing is schedule to occur at 10:58 p.m. EST (0258 Nov. 10 GMT), with coverage starting at 9:45 p.m. EST (0158 Nov. 10 GMT). Watch it live in the window below ... [see link above]

Good night folks from here!
Quoting 183. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it will likely be wet snow very little ground accumulation ground is still too warm need a min of 10 days of below freezing temps to get the ground cold enough for it to stay


Cold ground helps but isn't essential here in the DC metro area. I've seen snow accumulate over warm soil before, Oct 10, 1979 and Nov 11, 1987 come to mind and the latter was an 18" huge dump southeast of the District of Columbia in PG county. High fall rates will both cool the ground and overwhelm any melting from underneath. But I don't see that in the cards for this mid November cold outbreak.

I do remember a November storm in 1969 (11/12 I think) where 6-10" fell but most of it melted on contact so we only had two inches on grassy areas and slush to nothing on roads. Temps were below freezing (31F) the entire storm. I had a sore throat and couldn't play in it.. next day I recovered and there wasn't much left.

If the ground is warm, melting from underneath can hasten the melting of one of our big dumps.
The night starts very bad here in Tuscany, a stationary V-shaped thundersorm is affecting the recently flooded Carrara and in general Versilia, Apuane and Lunigiana, and WRF models not bode anything well.

It's also remarkably hot for the period (nothing new in this crazy hot fall...), at 02 AM here in Florence +16,7°C at my PWS and with this Sirocco flow and overcast sky this probably will be the daily minimum, only 1°C below july and august minimum average. Some weather stations of Servizio Idrologico Regionale near Grosseto are up to 20°C, looks like a summer night...
Quoting 275. DonnieBwkGA:

CNN does hype the cold snap on their main page.


Watch the video and you'll see they did a far better job than CBS. Their lady meteorologist explained it in decent layman's terms and had a great response to "polar vortex" at the end.
Quoting 274. ncstorm:

I'm going to post something unprecendented on this blog..long range model run..

the most travel calendar year of thanksgiving week per the GFS is going to be horrible per the 18z GFS..better pack a thanksgiving dinner in your suitcase while you hunker down in the airport..all of this leads to delays and trickle effects at all the major airports across the country...of course this is all speculation and in no way set in stone but interesting none the less to see thanksgiving might be share with complete strangers..








Never been stuck in an airport from snow, but Thanksgiving eve 1989 I drove from DC to Williamsburg through several inches of heavy snow and it took six hours to make the trip. Temps were below freezing throughout the storm and I had my outside windshield ice up which usually only happens in midwinter. Hard trip! I remember the critical rain snow thickness contour was near RIC and was 550dm, very high for a November storm.

Sunday after Thanksgiving 1977 I drove to VPI from DC and encountered 2"/hour snow between Staunton and Lynchburg. Traffic stopped for four hours on I81 as numerous college kids unfamiliar with snow spun out.
This turned into a ten hour trip for me, normal was five.


Quoting Jedkins01:


I don't think its a fair assumption to say that just because they only discussed the models in previous discussions that there was a forecast issue. Sure its true that some will follow exactly what a model says. But I don't see any evidence the NWS in Ruskin did this. In fact their forecast was very accurate for an event with model inconsistency combined with some model inaccuracy like you pointed out. The NWS consistently was forecasting an event that featured an overrunning event for the forecast area, with 0.4-0.7 inch in the Central counties, 0.25-0.50 for the northern Counties, and 0.75-1.00 in the southern counties, with maybe a few local spots near the coast getting more than that.

They also expected the timing to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. Well, they showed this for a quite a while, and the forecast turned out very accurate. Which by the way, isn't a small feat, as rainfall forecasting is a difficult thing, but they did very well especially in light of model issues, they didn't jump around between showing less than 0.25 one day and 2 inches the next like the GFS was doing at one point.

Given this, I don't really see what the criticism was about, it seems quite clear the NWS handled it well.
You're right. I was getting them confused with Melbourne, which had much more breathless coverage of this system and much more reliance on models. Look at the 3:50 pm Friday discussion as an example.
Why are we still at odds with Russia?
Quoting Levi32:


Watch the video and you'll see they did a far better job than CBS. Their lady meteorologist explained it in decent layman's terms and had a great response to "polar vortex" at the end.
She certainly did a much better job than the newswoman in red, who was looking forward to some real arm flapping panic and didn't get it. I do wish media forecasters would make it a little more clear that this is what models 10 days from now think will happen as compared to it's really going to happen.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EST Sun Nov 09 2014

Valid 00Z Mon Nov 10 2014 - 00Z Wed Nov 12 2014

...Major snow storm expected over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Upper Great Lakes...

...Temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains...

Snow will develop over parts of the Northern Rockies and High Plains that
will expand across the Northern Plains tonight. The snow will move east
and become moderate over the Northern High Plains to the Upper Mississippi
Valley on Monday morning. The snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes
Monday evening and continue to into Tuesday morning, becoming heavy at
times. Snow accumulations near a foot are expected over parts of southern
Minnesota to northern Wisconsin, increasing to 18-24 inches in the upper
peninsula of Michigan near Lake Superior. High winds will lead to blowing
and drifting snow and sharply reduced visibility.

Behind the storm, a cold front will drop quickly south across the Plains
and Mississippi Valley. A strong area of high pressure in southern Canada
will combine with the low pressure over the Mississippi Valley to drive
frigid air south into the northern and central Plains to upper Mississippi
Valley, with temperatures dropping to 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

An area of low pressure develops over the coastal waters east of Florida
with the low drifting north through Tuesday. The system will produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms over eastern Florida through Monday
evening and along the southeast coast Tuesday.

Petersen
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

THE BIG STORY DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUED WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST.
THE MOST ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE CENTER
OF THE COUNTRY WHERE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SURGE INTO BEFORE
MODERATING ON ITS ADVANCE TOWARD THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
DAYS 3 AND 4 ARE EXPECTED TO BE 25 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER ANOMALIES
BEYOND THAT PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY 5 DEGREE
DEPARTURES EXPECTED. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...A HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THREAT MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS
AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL SURFACE LOW NEXT WEEKEND.



RUBIN-OSTER
Quoting weatherbro:
Why are we still at odds with Russia?
Maybe because they've aided in the attempted overthrow of the government of a sovereign country right on their border?
MJO is moving back into phase 1... this will be without question the last chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the deep tropics in the Atlantic this year. It's a very small chance though. Waters are still plenty warm in the Caribbean, but in terms of shear it's getting into "winter mode". Anything that tries to get going should be ripped apart. The only model support for anything in the Caribbean appears to be the CMC ensembles... not exactly enough to inspire confidence in the possibility (although the time frame on this is only 5-6 days).





Somewhat more possible, though probably still unlikely, is a final storm out of the East Pac as the GFS and its ensembles show in 10-14 days. Doesn't look like 96E will get designated. Still pretty disorganized and about out of time before it moves into hostile conditions.

The GFS is still trying to bury D.C in snow XD.Yeah I'll believe that when I see snow falling from the sky.
Quoting 274. ncstorm:

I'm going to post something unprecendented on this blog..long range model run..

the most travel calendar year of thanksgiving week per the GFS is going to be horrible per the 18z GFS..better pack a thanksgiving dinner in your suitcase while you hunker down in the airport..all of this leads to delays and trickle effects at all the major airports across the country...of course this is all speculation and in no way set in stone but interesting none the less to see thanksgiving might be share with complete strangers..







I wouldn't mind if that verified. :p
Quoting 291. MAweatherboy1:

MJO is moving back into phase 1... this will be without question the last chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the deep tropics in the Atlantic this year. It's a very small chance though. Waters are still plenty warm in the Caribbean, but in terms of shear it's getting into "winter mode". Anything that tries to get going should be ripped apart. The only model support for anything in the Caribbean appears to be the CMC ensembles... not exactly enough to inspire confidence in the possibility (although the time frame on this is only 5-6 days).





Somewhat more possible, though probably still unlikely, is a final storm out of the East Pac as the GFS and its ensembles show in 10-14 days. Doesn't look like 96E will get designated. Still pretty disorganized and about out of time before it moves into hostile conditions.



Just a nitpick here, but the MJO amplification you see on that RMM chart is not actually the MJO, it's an extremely impressive convectively-coupled kelvin wave overwhelming the signal. I agree that this is the last chance for a deep tropics system this year.



Not a bad season if you ask me. Not as impressive as 2010, 2011, 2012 were, but light years ahead of 2013. Definitely a quality over quantity season.

Hello guys, it has been a long time, hasn't it?

Sorry, I kinda lost interest in the blogs for a while. Mainly because the weather on my end has been so boring so far this year, we got a lot of rains, but no T-storms or interesting systems. And the temps all summer long were well below average (we did not break 90 ONCE!).

I did hear about Arthur, but I really did not pay attention to him. And I decided to come back to the blog when hurricane season winded down (since the blog tends to get a bit nuts during hurricane season).

So did anything interesting happen on the blog during my absence? Is Grothar still naming blobs and is Wash still the child-at-heart snow lover she is?




But now I see a huge winter storm caused by a typhoon in the pacific is heading my way, and that an El Ninio may come into effect this winter. So this next year looks more promising weather-wise
Quoting 290. sar2401:

Maybe because they've aided in the attempted overthrow of the government of a sovereign country right on their border?


Quoting 291. MAweatherboy1:

MJO is moving back into phase 1... this will be without question the last chance for a tropical cyclone to form in the deep tropics in the Atlantic this year. It's a very small chance though. Waters are still plenty warm in the Caribbean, but in terms of shear it's getting into "winter mode". Anything that tries to get going should be ripped apart. The only model support for anything in the Caribbean appears to be the CMC ensembles... not exactly enough to inspire confidence in the possibility (although the time frame on this is only 5-6 days).





Somewhat more possible, though probably still unlikely, is a final storm out of the East Pac as the GFS and its ensembles show in 10-14 days. Doesn't look like 96E will get designated. Still pretty disorganized and about out of time before it moves into hostile conditions.




The big front coming down will just end that quickly.

Hurricane season is done folks.
Quoting 294. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just a nitpick here, but the MJO amplification you see on that RMM chart is not actually the MJO, it's an extremely impressive convectively-coupled kelvin wave overwhelming the signal. I agree that this is the last chance for a deep tropics system this year.



Not a bad season if you ask me. Not as impressive as 2010, 2011, 2012 were, but light years ahead of 2013. Definitely a quality of quantity season.



Thanks for the clarification, I think Webber has also mentioned to me before that Kelvin waves can mess the signal up. Pretty much the same effect though I guess. I agree on this year, it turned out about how I expected, but getting a couple major hurricanes, especially Gonzalo, was a bonus. It'll be interesting to see what next year brings. It's obviously way too early to make predictions, but we kind of figured by this time last year that this season would likely be pretty slow, and it was. I'd lean towards below average again for next year because of the likely warm ENSO pattern and continued Atlantic vertical stability issues, but we have a long time to watch things change.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM TAKING AIM ON WISCONSIN...

.A LARGE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...MUCH OF NORTHERN AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
FROM MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECAST UPDATES AS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM.

WIZ005-010-011-018-019-030-100515-
/O.CON.KGRB.WS.W.0006.141110T1200Z-141112T0000Z/
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MARATHON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...EAGLE RIVER...RHINELANDER...CRANDON...
TOMAHAWK...ANTIGO...WAUSAU
311 PM CST SUN NOV 9 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO
6 PM CST TUESDAY...

* SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 16 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE
UPPER MICHIGAN BORDER. THE SNOW COULD BE MIXED WITH SLEET OR
PERHAPS RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 29.

* TRAVEL WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY SNOW AND SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND SOME
DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW MEANS
SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DIFFICULT. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. THE LATEST
WISCONSIN ROAD CONDITIONS CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 511.

&&





Okay, I really hope the heavy stuff holds off until tomorrow afternoon and doesn't let up until Tuesday.
Okay, we might get some school cancellations on Tuesday



Quoting 259. sar2401:

Wow. 25 years. I seriously never thought in my lifetime that I'd see that wall come down or the failure of Soviet-style communism. I remember thinking what a great time this was for the world, with all the Warsaw Pact countries finally becoming free of the Soviet Union and little countries like Slovenia, that had never been free in their history, now having a chance to be part of the world of nations. Everything hasn't gone exactly how we'd all like to see it but it's still a better world than it was 25 years ago. Not perfect, but better. Thanks for posting this, Barb. As usual, our media has almost zero coverage of the important anniversary.

Now that I think about it, I guess you have to be at least over 40 or so to even understand what a moment that was. For many people, it's just another date to learn in school to pass a history exam.


I work with many people from former Soviet block countries...and it's weird to me as many don't understand my awe, as they were born right around that time, so grew up in a different world. I was still fairly young when it all happened, but was clued up on it all being history was one of my main courses and being interested in politics even back then. That Scorpions song is one of the few songs that can make me weepy! The cold war was freaky to live under, though i only dealt with the end era of it, Drills in school in case there was a nucleur attack and all, eeek. Somethings have made me sad, like how many countries broke up. That the differences or distrust of their fellow countrymen, was that bad, they chose to make their own state. And makes me see how easy that could happen in many places..UK for sure, even US places of course and then many smaller areas in countries with issues. Rambling about it now, but it does fascinate me!

Here, been back to storm after storm, Cooled down afew times, but still pretty mild. Storms coming from the Altantic instead of a polar based one. Cool enough for comfortable sleep anyway :)
Quoting VR46L:


You are getting some white stuff I think


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
295. FunnelVortex
Yes I still do love snow but I think the models are jumping a bit to early.If anything some non accumulating snow showers but nothing major.
Quoting 292. washingtonian115:

The GFS is still trying to bury D.C in snow XD.Yeah I'll believe that when I see snow falling from the sky.
u shall have a merry white thanksgiving

maybe
294. We got to track the strongest ATL storm since Igor this year, so no complaints here.
Quoting 304. washingtonian115:

295. FunnelVortex
Yes I still do love snow but I think the models are jumping a bit to early.If anything some non accumulating snow showers but nothing major.



I am not sure if i want all this snow this early either.

We had once inch today that did not melt. And wont.

Now we are going to get like a foot over the next two days. Too much too soon. And I really do not feel like shoveling tomorrow.
Quoting 276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it should come up along western side of the spine of the apps howler from the gulf non tropical intense fall storm


A track up the west side of the Appalachians is not favorable for mid atlantic snow even in midwinter.
309. VR46L
Quoting 302. 62901IL:


YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


You are not going Meg Ryan over a bit of snow ???


Quoting 308. georgevandenberghe:


A track up the west side of the Appalachians is not favorable for mid atlantic snow even in midwinter.



Perhaps a big rainmaker for the mid atlantic though.
Quoting 285. sar2401:

You're right. I was getting them confused with Melbourne, which had much more breathless coverage of this system and much more reliance on models. Look at the 3:50 pm Friday discussion as an example.

The Tampa NWS folks did a good job.
The Melbourne NWS....I don't see a Friday 3:50 pm discussion, but they got a bit enthusiastic in a couple of other discussions. They did amusingly realize the exuberance with the extreme sprinkle forecast when apparantly one of them stopped looking at models and went outside....they led off today's discussion with:
.
.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TODAY...A FEW SPRINKLES WHILE WALKING THE PUPS BEFORE
COMING TO WORK
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As Germany marks fall of the Berlin Wall, Gorbachev warns of new cold war
Gorvbachev words became true, with the USA interest in a Cold War part II, with the new democratic and capitalistic, Russia, 25 years later....
Quoting CosmicEvents:

The Tampa NWS folks did a good job.
The Melbourne NWS....I don't see a Friday 3:50 pm discussion, but they got a bit enthusiastic in a couple of other discussions. They did amusingly realize the exuberance with the extreme sprinkle forecast when apparantly one of them stopped looking at models and went outside....they led off today's discussion with:
.
.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TODAY...A FEW SPRINKLES WHILE WALKING THE PUPS BEFORE
COMING TO WORK
Look again. It's there. This is the one where they acknowledged the front that was supposed to perk things up had come to a "screeching" halt"...and then went on with about 10 paragraphs of model discussions and the same kind of exuberance for what I felt wasn't ever going to be a big deal.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...FRONT HAS COME TO A SCREECHING HALT JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEE AS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT NRLY TO SRLY
AT KOBE (VIA THE LAKE BREEZE). WINDS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS HAVE FLOPPED AROUND TO NERLY OWING TO WEAK ECSB COMPONENT.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The big front coming down will just end that quickly.

Hurricane season is done folks.
I don't think the western Caribbean will get anything going, but out of these persistent ULLs in the Eastern Caribbean and the mid atlantic something can Popout in late fall, like with to 2007 Olga, crossing Puerto Rico from the NE, tumbling Christmas trees down, a couple of weeks before Christmas... so watch out, just in case...
315. Ighuc
Looks like it'll be 10-14 inches for the Twin Cities or so, depending on whether the models continue to shift things to the north. Regardless, Monday evening and Tuesday morning commutes will be horrific.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
294. We got to track the strongest ATL storm since Igor this year, so no complaints here.
Nobody is paying attention since is mid November, but the system in the Atlantic at 20N,44W is becoming interesting, to say the least. Understandably so, NHC wont recognized anything at this juncture unless is near hurricane strength...
Quoting 308. georgevandenberghe:


A track up the west side of the Appalachians is not favorable for mid atlantic snow even in midwinter.

but anywhere west of there will be and sometimes quite the fall of snow as well
Quoting 211. sar2401:

It appears the cold front this weekend is going to be a close call for south Alabama. It will certainly get below freezing Friday and Saturday mornings, maybe even into the mid-20's. Thankfully, this is not the setup where we get ice storms but, depending on how far the cold air advances compared to the moisture ahead of it, this is a pattern we do see snow from the overrunning precipitation just making it into the cold air. It's generally a four to six hour event with no chance for accumulations, since the ground will be too warm, but it's enough to get the kids excited. What happens for the two weeks after this weekend gets more interesting as there will be a lot of cold air in place, the ground will be much colder than this weekend, and there's no evidence of a typical Plains low developing that could set up a decent return flow from the Gulf and warm us up much.

Each cold front is going to reinforce the cold air regime, and this kind of pattern almost inevitably ends up with snow. As long as we don't get a low form in the Gulf on the tail end of one of these fronts, it still would be more of a winter wonderland event rather than something with lots of high impacts. If a low in the Gulf forms and heads this way, that's when we're in trouble. That usually ends up with an ice storm followed by snow like we had last January 28. These are the storms that cause big trouble, not just something that we weather geeks like. The microscale pattern is almost impossible to predict more than eight hours in advance, and that leads to serious forecast busts if the meteorologists are off by even 50 miles. We will see how long this cold pattern continues. It's been my experience that a cold period from about Thanksgiving to Christmas leads to a warmer and drier January. However, nothing seems to be following the patterns that I'm used to over the last couple of years, and the winter of 2014-2015 may not either.



There's plenty of reasoning aside from the fact this cold air is likely not to go much of anywhere for the next few weeks, that this pattern is one worth watching. My hunch based on a multitude of factors I have briefly discussed in earlier commentary is to watch the period around November 20th, thereafter based on the LRC, the pattern should briefly shift into the Pacific Northwest as a piece of energy tries to split off from the predominant Aleutian/Gulf of Alaskan Low, before yet another massive arctic intrusion follows somewhere near the beginning of December, but we have plenty of time to watch how this unfolds... In regards to your claim that colder wx in & around Thanksgiving through Christmas actually precludes a warm January, I found this to be quite false in doing a little research... I found 33 years that fit the definition of colder than normal in this period (looked @ Alabama specifically since I'm assuming this is where you reside based on the comment above) & in looking @ their subsequent Januarys, ~60% were actually colder than normal (a few were also virtually normal), which is however not statistically significant. On the other hand, what I found that was a bit more convincing, given this same set of parameters, El Ninos/warm ENSO Neutral Events generally have a greater capacity to resist your observed tendency of warm Januarys coming on the heels of a colder than normal period pattern from Thanksgiving to Christmas...

Warm ENSO Neutral-El Nino Januarys following colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas in Alabama...


Cold ENSO Neutral-La Nina Januarys following colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas in Alabama...

Quoting HuracanTaino:
Nobody is paying attention since is mid November, but the system in the Atlantic at 20N,44W is becoming interesting, to say the least. Understandably so, NHC wont recognized anything at this juncture unless is near hurricane strength...


The NHC has eyes on it but it really is just a large ULL with no sign it's getting to the surface or getting organized. I do agree that the NHC is going to want to see more out of this than what the criteria was for the same system in June, but that's because the season really is winding down.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR
30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 31N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
26N W OF 75W. A LARGE 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-
23N BETWEEN 40W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS.








500mb anomalies preceding "classic" southern US overrunning events...
Quoting sar2401:


The NHC has eyes on it but it really is just a large ULL with no sign it's getting to the surface or getting organized. I do agree that the NHC is going to want to see more out of this than what the criteria was for the same system in June, but that's because the season really is winding down.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR
30N78W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AT 25N80W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 31N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF
26N W OF 75W. A LARGE 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N40W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 20N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-
23N BETWEEN 40W-45W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W TO INCLUDE THE BAHAMAS.
Agree. thanks...
Quoting Webberweather53:



There's plenty of reasoning aside from the fact this cold air is likely not to go much of anywhere for the next few weeks, that this pattern is one worth watching. My hunch based on a multitude of factors I have briefly discussed in earlier commentary is to watch the period around November 20th, thereafter based on the LRC, the pattern should briefly shift into the Pacific Northwest as a piece of energy tries to split off from the predominant Aleutian/Gulf of Alaskan Low, before yet another massive arctic intrusion follows somewhere near the beginning of December, but we have plenty of time to watch how this unfolds... In regards to your claim that colder wx in & around Thanksgiving through Christmas actually precludes a warm January, I found this to be quite false in doing a little research... I found 33 years that fit the definition of colder than normal in this period (looked @ Alabama specifically since I'm assuming this is where you reside based on the comment above) & in looking @ their subsequent Januarys, ~60% were actually colder than normal (a few were also virtually normal), which is however not statistically significant. On the other hand, what I found that was a bit more convincing, given this same set of parameters, El Ninos/warm ENSO Neutral Events generally have a greater capacity to resist your observed tendency of warm Januarys coming on the heels of a colder than normal period pattern from Thanksgiving to Christmas...

Warm ENSO Neutral-El Nino Januarys following colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas in Alabama...Cold ENSO Neutral-La Nina Januarys following colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas in Alabama...

That shows one of the problems with going off memory instead of hard evidence. In my defense, I can only say it's been so only since we had a real El Nino that my memory got kind of foggy on that issue. :-) Of course, we don't know yet if we're going to have a cold December, so we'll have to see how that unfolds before we can start to get an idea about January. It certainly feels unusually cool now, with a nice warm 76 high and the temperature plunging as soon as the sun sets. It's already down to 41 here in SE Alabama tonight. I've lived here long enough now (10 years) to have had several years where it never got below freezing all winter or we had a day or two in January. Now we have summers where I feel like I'll never need a coat again and winters where I feel like I could never go outside without a coat again. This is starting to remind me of Cleveland with alligators.
Wow! No posts for almost four hours. This has to be some kind of record. Between the quiet tropics, northern US snow which hasn't started yet, and the rain in Florida being not such a big deal after all, I guess there's not much to talk about. That should all change tomorrow when the big snow and polar vortex hit. Goodnight, everyone.
That track could mean substantial ice for interior areas of New England. :-(

Quoting 276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it should come up along western side of the spine of the apps howler from the gulf non tropical intense fall storm

Well, I predicted no more than half an inch for the Tampa reporting station from the weekend rain event. Turns out I was slightly off as it received 0.54. I was hoping for more but will take what we can get.

Now we dry out again, practically no rain predicted for the next 7 days.

i watch TWC in the morning, its better than the news. anyone know if stephanie abrams is really on vacation? did she get cut?


let it snow
It's worth noting that the 0z runs of both the Euro and the GFS develop this small area of low pressure near Socorro Island (96E) into a small tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, albeit one that quickly becomes decapitated by strong vertical shear ahead of a digging mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States. This system has been showing signs of organization this morning, and I concur with the NHC's 12z assessment of 40/40, respectively, but I would also not be surprised to see it become a tropical cyclone today if current trends continue. The surface circulation is not yet well-defined, however, as noted by a 0400Z ASCAT pass. However, convection is helping to be sustained by highly divergent flow aloft, ironically caused by the same upper low (near 18N 120W) that's creating the current southwesterly shear. It appears that the renewed blast of shear seen in the model fields by tonight or Tuesday morning is related to the downstream trough and not to the dry embedded upper low previously mentioned.

Quoting tampabaymatt:
Well, I predicted no more than half an inch for the Tampa reporting station from the weekend rain event. Turns out I was slightly off as it received 0.54. I was hoping for more but will take what we can get.

Now we dry out again, practically no rain predicted for the next 7 days.



.64" here in Fort Myers
Heavier rain just to our north, but less rain to our south. So I guess we take what we can get.
robert plant turns down 500 mil. to reform led zepplin. it would be sunny for me after signing that check.
332. DVG
Quoting 312. HuracanTaino:

Gorvbachev words became true, with the USA interest in a Cold War part II, with the new democratic and capitalistic, Russia, 25 years later....

Russia is not democratic. It is run by ex KGB across the board. The US is not the world's villain. Get a clue.
333. DVG
Quoting 301. mitthbevnuruodo:



I work with many people from former Soviet block countries...and it's weird to me as many don't understand my awe, as they were born right around that time, so grew up in a different world. I was still fairly young when it all happened, but was clued up on it all being history was one of my main courses and being interested in politics even back then. That Scorpions song is one of the few songs that can make me weepy! The cold war was freaky to live under, though i only dealt with the end era of it, Drills in school in case there was a nucleur attack and all, eeek. Somethings have made me sad, like how many countries broke up. That the differences or distrust of their fellow countrymen, was that bad, they chose to make their own state. And makes me see how easy that could happen in many places..UK for sure, even US places of course and then many smaller areas in countries with issues. Rambling about it now, but it does fascinate me!

Here, been back to storm after storm, Cooled down afew times, but still pretty mild. Storms coming from the Altantic instead of a polar based one. Cool enough for comfortable sleep anyway :)


My major as well. I completed college with a term paper regarding the Soviet occupation of East Europe. I too never thought I'd see it, while I longed for it. I have been to a lot of Europe. Poland is extremely anxious about Russia. The break up into countries is not a sad thing. It is a people's becoming free of Soviet oppression. Czechoslovakia being the exception. In this instance an amicable separation both sides desired. Been to the Czech Republic. Love Prague. Anyone that wants to see my picture can go to flickr. Check out travel4beer. Those are mine. Russia had a chance, but that chance is gone. The tyrants are back. This time there is no ideology constraining former KGB operatives.
Quoting 330. Sfloridacat5:



.64" here in Fort Myers
Heavier rain just to our north, but less rain to our south. So I guess we take what we can get.


Going to be a lot of rain today in places across E C FL as the Upper low slings moisture off the Atlantic. Have already had a little rain just a bit ago. Maybe even some thunderstorms with small hail today as well with 500mb temps -15 to -17C.

350 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATER
TODAY AND UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 8 FEET OFFSHORE
TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FROM VOLUSIA
COUNTY MAY FOCUS SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH UP TO AROUND
AN INCH.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
327 AM EST MON NOV 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS INTO
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE APALACHEE BAY INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THIS AFTERNOON
TOWARD CENTRAL FL WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND DEEPENING SOME
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY/NE FL. AS THE MID-UPR LEVEL LOW MOVES
EASTWARD OVER E CENTRAL FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON COLD MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MBS FROM -15 TO -17 DEGS C AND MODEST BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING ALONG WITH CAPE INCREASING TO 500-800 J/KG SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW LVL NE FLOW
BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW WILL FOCUS SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC MOVING
ONSHORE ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY THIS MORNING AND THEN SHOULD SEE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INLAND TO THE ORLANDO METRO AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THIS MORNING SHOWER BAND AFFECTING THE
TREASURE COAST SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY MID DAY.
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SRN
SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID LVL DRY SLOT WORKS IT WAY IN ACROSS
THE SRN PENINSULA. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO SOME UPPER 70S FAR
SRN SECTIONS.

Looks like either a 0.7C or 0.8C reading at nino 3.4 today and this is important as El-Nino could be offically declared December 4th. Strange NOAA lowers the percentage then likely declare it 3 weeks later.

Strong coastal storm now underway across E C FL. Winds are really picking up at the beaches this morning so are the waves.

WOW!!! Look at all this snow across most of Texas. Unreal. The same system looks it has a severe potential across FL & South GA this time next week.




snow in the mid-west this morning
Those 200 and 500mb maps are terrible Dr. M. The only landmark I can really see is Hokkaido. Thank goodness I am familiar with Japan.
Just in CPC has Nino 3.4 at 0.8C. Nino 3.4 has really spiked now given the SOI crashing.

With this El-Nino has clicked and expect this values to continue to rise and last thru most if not all of 2015.



I can see the Jet stream is wack, but the season has been getting longer and longer. There are 20 days left in it for a good lull or hole in the shear.
Early thanks to all the people that have and are serving in the military. Your service has made advances and free conversations like this one on the web possible.
Food for thought the 30 Day SOI index is at moderate El-Nino levels while the 90 Day Index is at Weak El-Nino levels so it will be interesting to see if the 90 Day Index heads into Moderate El-Nino territory.
Anybody up for harpooning a comet tomorrow?
Link
While there's a winter storm going across the Great Lakes region, we're looking good in S.W. Florida.
It's already clear and sunny outside this morning with expected highs in the upper 70s.

7 day for Fort Myers - no cold air anytime soon.

Quoting 335. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like either a 0.7C or 0.8C reading at nino 3.4 today and this is important as El-Nino could be offically declared December 4th. Strange NOAA lowers the percentage then likely declare it 3 weeks later.




It's very odd that the percentage was lowered just as it seems El Nino is coming. Has anyone been able to make heads or tails of why the percentage was lowered?
Quoting 345. Sfloridacat5:

While there's a winter storm going across the Great Lakes region, we're looking good in S.W. Florida.
It's already clear and sunny outside this morning with expected highs in the upper 70s.




Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend. Euro esnembles are even showing 2 feet of snow across Washington DC area going out to 240hrs. Lots of weather going on now. Rain here at the moment and is expected to get much heavier in the next few hours as the upper low hits all of this Atlantic moisture moving from the east.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend. Euro esnembles are even showing 2 feet of snow across Washington DC area going out to 240hrs. Lots of weather going on now. Rain here at the moment and is expected to get much heavier in the next few hours as the upper low hits all of this Atlantic moisture moving from the east.


We're beautiful here. Clear sky with bright sunshine. It's going to be a perfect day.

Fort Myers Beach looking south. You can see the very last of the clouds moving out of the area.
Quoting 346. tampabaymatt:



It's very odd that the percentage was lowered just as it seems El Nino is coming. Has anyone been able to make heads or tails of why the percentage was lowered?


Even Dr. Steve Gregory couldn't explain it when he was on last week. Makes one really wonder what's going on over at NOA as they have been releasing some horrible forecast lately. Funding maybe who knows.
Upper low now over Tampa. HRRR model is showing heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms breaking out across Orlando over to Volusia County around 12pm. Makes sense as dewpoints are in the mid 60's and PWAT's are increasing to near 1.5" now.

Live Mobile stream embedded in traffic on I94 near St Cloud MN. Winter Storm Astro as seen on TWC live.
Live Video Stream - Astro
Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:



Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend. Euro esnembles are even showing 2 feet of snow across Washington DC area going out to 240hrs. Lots of weather going on now. Rain here at the moment and is expected to get much heavier in the next few hours as the upper low hits all of this Atlantic moisture moving from the east.
Scott a lot has to work out for D.C to get 2 feet of snow for so early in the winter season.Ever since the 90's when they started to really build up the city the heat island has taken us hostage.It can be 4.5 degrees higher in downtown than say somewhere in college park (Hence why the airport always get's less then anywhere else and why others want the snow measurement station moved).
Quoting 346. tampabaymatt:



It's very odd that the percentage was lowered just as it seems El Nino is coming. Has anyone been able to make heads or tails of why the percentage was lowered?

Like with the last stronger Kelvin wave, the atmosphere has not completely responded. ESPI today is even lower at 0.20, which shows a real lack of precipitation across ENSO region when comparing to the temperature of region 3,4.

It certainly lowered my confidence. It was one thing for it to go in the .30s for a few weeks but back to the .20s this last week gave me some doubt.
watching three areas central atlantic east of florida and the sw carib.
Low pulling together off Volusia. One of the local mets on TV was calling this a Baby Nor'easter.

Looks like it would come out of the GOM, cross the SE states and move offshore off mid-Atlantic. My concern is where the icing may set up. Some areas will be in the "polar plunge" for at least 5 days before this winds up. Also 100 mile shift to the east or west greatly changes this map. Worth watching as we get closer. Thanks Scott.

Quoting 337. StormTrackerScott:

WOW!!! Look at all this snow across most of Texas. Unreal. The same system looks it has a severe potential across FL & South GA this time next week.


I mentioned this yesterday afternoon. It was quite chilly yesterday with cloud cover and light rain and drizzle most of the day.

The temperatures never got out of the 60s. I was pretty sure we'd break the record for a minimum high temp for the day.

We did end up breaking the record.

Yesterday's high in Fort Myers was only 65 degrees. The old record minimum high was 73 degrees in 2009.
8" at Dulles and by the time I got to downtown it was raining with just a hint of slush.


Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

Scott a lot has to work out for D.C to get 2 feet of snow for so early in the winter season.Ever since the 90's when they started to really build up the city the heat island has taken us hostage.It can be 4.5 degrees higher in downtown than say somewhere in college park (Hence why the airport always get's less then anywhere else and why others want the snow measurement station moved).


wow look at the cold weather in the mid-west this morning only in the 15F
Quoting Skyepony:
Low pulling together off Volusia. One of the local mets on TV was calling this a Baby Nor'easter.




Nor'easters are called that because of the strong fetch of onshore winds out of the N.E..Those strong onshore winds can bring coastal flooding.

Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, and Cocoa Beach are all reporting NW,WNW or NNW winds (offshore winds).




Quoting 354. islander101010:

watching three areas central atlantic east of florida and the sw carib.


Good Morning. Here are the current shear levels in the Atlantic per CIMSS. That area in the Central Atlantic north east of the Antilles is under an anti-cyclone and the Florida area (Good Catch Skye) is surrounded by high shear.....Baby Noreaster is about right as opposed to a tropical system.

Quoting 347. StormTrackerScott:



Euro pounds Texas with heavy snow this weekend. Euro esnembles are even showing 2 feet of snow across Washington DC area going out to 240hrs. Lots of weather going on now. Rain here at the moment and is expected to get much heavier in the next few hours as the upper low hits all of this Atlantic moisture moving from the east.


Just what part of Texas?? Forecast is 57 and a showers for Saturday. :/
Here's the GFS's early prediction for the Southern Plains winter storm.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PST MON NOV 10 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization in association with an area of low pressure located
about 375 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. While satellite wind data indicate that the
surface circulation is not well defined, some additional development
is possible today while the system moves north-northeastward to
northeastward at 10 to 15 mph. However, conditions are expected to
become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation by tonight or
early Tuesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone development, this
system will bring rain and gusty winds to portions of the west coast
of mainland Mexico tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



notiing happern unit the year 2015
A lot can change, but it's looking like everything should start as rain across the eastcoast.
Then change over to snow later in some locations.
This is in the long range, so confidence is needless to say low, but both the GFS and ECMWF seem to be converging on the idea of a significant winter storm for the Northeast in the days preceding Thanksgiving. It would not be at all surprising given the combination of a strongly negative AO, negative NAO, positive PNA, negative EPO, and negative WPO. As Eric (Webberweather53) has mentioned for the past few days, the overall setup would also be favorable for a South USA overrunning event (although since we're still early in the season it wouldn't be too significant). We'll see how things trend over the coming days.
Nice wrap around snow for the Northeast.
It's very odd that the percentage was lowered just as it seems El Nino is coming. Has anyone been able to make heads or tails of why the percentage was lowered?

as skye stated.....the factors that go with a rise in the 3.4 region anomalies...just aren't in place.....cloudiness....and tradewinds....are as they should be if we were in an la nina event

Just what part of Texas?? Forecast is 57 and a showers for Saturday. :/



none LOL
another note.....beware when referring to the graphic below....it is not what the cpc uses when calculating the average sea anomalies...there are many times this graph is either too high or too low....seeing that tropics has it on his blog page./..and levi has it on his site...it's easy to find and view....and it is good to use as a gauge for how the 3.4 region is trending..up or down....

it will be interesting to see the weekly enso 3.4 anomaly when it is released by the cpc soon......as....the last 12 week reading has averaged at 0.4C above average........and the 12th week anomaly was 0.0c...so this weeks reading...knocking out the zero...will drastically change the three month average
Quoting 364. Pipejazz:



Just what part of Texas?? Forecast is 57 and a showers for Saturday. :/


Yes, Texas is HUGE. It's pointless to say things such as "Texas will see..." or "Texas will get..." and so on. Unless the entire state is in play, precision is necessary. For example, when a Blue Norther passes through, temperatures in the Panhandle can drop into the single digits, while the Rio Grande Valley can be in the 90s.
Yes, Texas is HUGE. It's pointless to say things such as "Texas will see..." or "Texas will get..." and so on. Unless the entire state is in play, precision is necessary. For example, when a Blue Norther passes through, temperatures in the Panhandle can drop into the single digits, while the Rio Grande Valley can be in the 90s.

lol.......exactly nea...........i'm in el paso.......that's over a thousand miles from houston........and 4 unique separate climate conditions
Quoting 354. islander101010:

watching three areas central atlantic east of florida and the sw carib.
Watching three areas for WHAT? GIve it a break! The Hurricane Season is OVER!
Quoting 376. ricderr:

Yes, Texas is HUGE. It's pointless to say things such as "Texas will see..." or "Texas will get..." and so on. Unless the entire state is in play, precision is necessary. For example, when a Blue Norther passes through, temperatures in the Panhandle can drop into the single digits, while the Rio Grande Valley can be in the 90s.

lol.......exactly nea...........i'm in el paso.......that's over a thousand miles from houston........and 4 unique separate climate conditions


More like 675 miles but we get the point
Quoting 371. ricderr:

It's very odd that the percentage was lowered just as it seems El Nino is coming. Has anyone been able to make heads or tails of why the percentage was lowered?

as skye stated.....the factors that go with a rise in the 3.4 region anomalies...just aren't in place.....cloudiness....and tradewinds....are as they should be if we were in an la nina event

That should read "warm neutral".
Quoting 373. ricderr:

another note.....beware when referring to the graphic below....it is not what the cpc uses when calculating the average sea anomalies...there are many times this graph is either too high or too low....seeing that tropics has it on his blog page./..and levi has it on his site...it's easy to find and view....and it is good to use as a gauge for how the 3.4 region is trending..up or down....



That's because Levi's graph plots daily values, while the CPC posts weekly averages.
Quoting Pipejazz:


Just what part of Texas?? Forecast is 57 and a showers for Saturday. :/
The Euro part of Texas. :-)

The one thing to remember about models when it comes to terrestrial storms is that predicting the amount of precipitation more than three days out has about as much skill as predicting hurricane intensities more than three days out, which is to say, not much. There's a high likelihood that much of the south will have colder than normal temperatures this weekend. There's a chance, depending on how the predicted front phases with moisture, that parts of Texas and the Mississippi, could have a decent precipitation event. There's a chance some of this could be snow, depending on the times of departure of moist air and the arrival cold air. It's still pretty much up in the air right now. Adjectives like "pounded" are probably a bit premature.
Quoting RitaEvac:


More like 675 miles but we get the point
But a drive from Houston to El Paso seems like 1000 miles, especially in the summer. :-)
That should read "warm neutral".





skye....according to the aussie mets....both cloudiness and tradewinds are as they would be if we were in a la nina event.....


Trade winds are slightly stronger than average over the western tropical Pacific and near-average over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (see anomaly map for the 5 days ending 3 November).
During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.


Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average over the past two weeks.
Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during El Niño and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during La Niña.
Quoting 365. Sfloridacat5:

Here's the GFS's early prediction for the Southern Plains winter storm.


maybe a snow storm for the northeast
East Haven, CT 51F SUNNY at 10:38am on november 10 2014
Quoting 369. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is in the long range, so confidence is needless to say low, but both the GFS and ECMWF seem to be converging on the idea of a significant winter storm for the Northeast in the days preceding Thanksgiving. It would not be at all surprising given the combination of a strongly negative AO, negative NAO, positive PNA, negative EPO, and negative WPO. As Eric (Webberweather53) has mentioned for the past few days, the overall setup would also be favorable for a South USA overrunning event (although since we're still early in the season it wouldn't be too significant). We'll see how things trend over the coming days.


Levi is also beginning to pick up on some of the ideas I have been mentioning over the last few days, "Longrange Euro ens has a big ice storm pattern w/ shortwave undercutting into arctic-infused trough. Highly uncertain"

Need to see what the snowpack looks like over the next week before assessing an potential for wintry weather with confidence, as the refrigeration of cold air advected from Canada & the northern tier will most certainly be a necessary ingredient to get any wintry wx into the south, and thus the extent & (even to a degree the depth) of the snowpack in the northern tier of the US will be a primary determinant on where precisely the system in the longer ranges moves. (which in all likelihood should cut underneath the Alaskan Omega Block in the southern branch of the jet given their natural behavior & evolution) A lot of question marks remain & although model runs should be taken w/ a grain of salt, the overall pattern implies we will have an extremely large snowpack over the US by November's standards as we get into next week...

(Image via Mark Vogan)
But a drive from Houston to El Paso seems like 1000 miles, especially in the summer. :-)


i just did it at 80 mph which is the present speed-limit times the 13 hours it took me to get here...i forgot that the speedlimit was 65 at night and i traveled at night 5 years ago........according to mapquest my trip was 780 miles.....still quite a distance
Bruce, WI snow temp 26F AT 10:45 AM EST on November 10, 2014
Quoting 387. Webberweather53:



Levi is also beginning to pick up on some of the ideas I have been mentioning over the last few days, "Longrange Euro ens has a big ice storm pattern w/ shortwave undercutting into arctic-infused trough. Highly uncertain"

Need to see what the snowpack looks like over the next week before assessing an potential for wintry weather with confidence, as the refrigeration of cold air advected from Canada & the northern tier will most certainly be a necessary ingredient to get any wintry wx into the south, and thus the extent & (even to a degree the depth) of the snowpack in the northern tier of the US will be a primary determinant on where precisely the system in the longer ranges moves. (which in all likelihood should cut underneath the Alaskan Omega Block in the southern branch of the jet given their natural behavior & evolution) A lot of question marks remain & although model runs should be taken w/ a grain of salt, the overall pattern implies we will have an extremely large snowpack over the US by November's standards as we get into next week...

(Image via Mark Vogan)



while the SE gets rain..again..
Going to be a crappy day for the tourist hanging our on Daytona Beach.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 390. ncstorm:



while the SE gets rain..again..


Yeah I guess I wasn't supposed to post that snow map earlier as the usual trolls are out attacking my post. Whatever now if it was a map showing temps 10 to 30 degree's above average 2 weeks away then Nea would be all over it. It's really comical watching some on here.
Ric~ How about then..

as skye Aussie mets stated.....the factors that go with a rise in the 3.4 region anomalies...just aren't in place.....cloudiness....and tradewinds....are as they should be if we were in an la nina event.

From what you posted~ trade winds increased over part of the Pacific, slightly lower than average cloudiness~ I would think might be referring to more a neutral or a cool neutral than La Nina atmospheric reaction..it's not clearly stated like a nice exact number ESPI yields.. but it is pointing to the same lack of clouds & such going on over the equatorial Pacific Ocean region.

Thanks for posting it. Nice to see the Aussie mets some what agreeing.
Quoting 383. sar2401:

But a drive from Houston to El Paso seems like 1000 miles, especially in the summer. :-)


E/W Orange TX to El Paso about 850 miles, S/N Brownsville to Texhoma TX about 890 miles, give or take...
Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:



Yeah I guess I wasn't supposed to post that snow map earlier as the usual trolls are out attacking my post. Whatever now if it was a map showing temps 10 to 30 degree's above average 2 weeks away then Nea would be all over it. It's really comical watching some on here.

Troll? TROLL??? I asked to clarify what part of 268,820 square miles (a lot near the Gulf Coast and Mexico) is going to get "pounded" by snow in early November.
How much longer must we wait before the hysterical "Global Warming," gang admits that perhaps their sky is falling scenerio is perhaps a little overstated. We are seeing more record lows than record highs around the world but little is reported of this-- because-- well---- is just isn't politically correct. Whatever happened to the "hole in the ozone layer," hysteria and tales of how everyone was going to die of melanoma? Anyone remember the "Great radon gas hoax," of a few years ago, where if you didn't buy a radon detector for your basement, you were going to die of radiation poisoning.