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Extremely dangerous Dean heads for Jamaica

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:37 PM GMT on August 18, 2007

Hurricane Dean put on an impressive round of rapid intensification last night, deepening 49 millibars in just 24 hours. Dean is now a major Category 4 hurricane with 150 mph winds. Reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Dean has likely peaked in intensity, and may be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. The eye has shrunk from 20 miles in diameter yesterday down to 13 miles in diameter this morning. This inner eyewall will probably shrink even more and collapse sometime in the next day, to be replaced by a new outer eyewall 30-40 miles in diameter. Dean's winds may decrease to the lower end of the Category 4 scale, 135-140 mph, if that occurs. The inner eyewall and the new outer eyewall that is forming can be seen on a microwave satellite image from this morning (Figure 1). The 11:02am EDT eye report from the Hurricane Hunters said that the southern portion of the inner eyewall was missing, so the eyewall is probably collapsing now.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image of Hurricane Dean at 7:31am EDT Saturday August 18. Two small partial rings of strong echoes, marking the boundaries of concentric inner and outer eyewalls, are visible. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Dean pounded Martinique, St. Lucia, and Dominica yesterday, and the storm's death toll now stands at three. A 62-year old man died on St. Lucia while trying to save his cow from raging flood waters, and a rain-triggered landslide killed a mother and child in their home in Dominica. Martinique suffered the worst damage, with 100% of the banana crop destroyed, 70% of the sugar cane crop gone, and considerable damage to buildings on the south end of the island. Lesser damage occurred on Dominica and St.Lucia, and overall, it appears that the Lesser Antilles islands were fortunate to get off so lightly.

Puerto Rico
Dean's eye is visible on long range radar out of Puerto Rico. A major spiral band of rain moved over Puerto Rico at about 11am EDT, and will bring up to four inches of rain to the island today. Radar estimated rainfall from the Puerto Rico radar shows up to two inches had fallen as of 1pm EDT. The wind/pressure plot from Buoy 42059 south of Puerto Rico shows that Dean passed just north of that location this morning, bringing wind gusts to 66 knots.

Dominican Republic
The tourist town of Punta Cana on the east tip of the island reported sustained winds of 34 mph, gusting to 46 mph this morning. The capital city of Santo Domingo can expect sustained winds of 40-45 mph today as Dean makes its closest pass to the south. Heavy rains of 1-3 inches in non-mountainous area will create some minor flooding problems in these areas. Mountainous area along the south coast of the Dominican Republic, particularly in the rugged Barahona Peninsula that juts farthest south into the Caribbean, will receive higher rain amounts and are at great risk of life-threatening flash floods.

Haiti
Dean will make a very close passage to the south of Haiti's mountainous southern Peninsula, and the capital city of Port-au-Prince could experience winds just below hurricane force. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane passing so close to Haiti is a serious threat. Deforestation has denuded the mountainsides of protective tree cover, and flood waters will wash down the mountains into populated areas. The only saving grace in this situation may be the relatively rapid forward speed of Dean, which will reduce the amount of rain that will fall, compared to other hurricanes that have affected Haiti.

Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Jamaica is my greatest concern. A direct hit by Dean would make it the worst hurricane strike on Jamaica for over a century. Jamaica has not received a direct hit by a Category 4 or 5 hurricane since perhaps 1832. The worst strikes of the 20th century were Category 3 Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Category 2 Hurricane Charlie of 1951. The Cayman Islands also have much to fear from Dean. Dean could rival Ivan as the Cayman's worst hurricane strike of the past century.

Cuba
Mountainous regions in Cuba area also at risk of dangerous flash flooding from Dean. However, civil defense is so good in Cuba that I don't expect any loss of life. Portions of south Cuba will experience sustained tropical force winds.

Mexico
The models have come into much better agreement this morning on the longer term forecast, and it looks very bad for Cancun and Cozumel. Dean will give those resort areas a pounding like they received from Hurricane Emily (Category 4) in 2005, and Hurricane Gilbert (Category 5) in 1988. Dean will probably not be as bad as Wilma (Category 4) in 2005, since Wilma stalled out over Cancun for three days as a major hurricane. Dean is moving quickly, and will not linger long over any of the regions it strikes.

Texas and Louisiana
Things are looking much brighter for Louisiana, as the GFDL model has come in line with all of the other models in predicting a landfall in Southern Texas or Northern Mexico. It now appears likely that Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula will knock Dean down a category or two before it can approach the Texas coast. The upper level low that was forecast by the GFDL to potentially steer Dean northwards appears to be weakening and moving westwards, out of the way of Dean. You can watch this upper level low on water vapor satellite loops. It is the counter-clockwise spinning region that has moved west off the Florida coast into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. If this low continues to weaken and move westwards, it will not be able to swing Dean northwestwards towards northeast Texas and Louisiana. If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.

The NOAA jet is scheduled to fly tonight and Sunday morning, so we should have some excellent model runs available Sunday morning and afternoon.

I'll have a short update tonight by 9pm, and a full update Sunday morning by noon. Tonight's update will focus on Jamaica, and I'll post the relevant radar and current condition links to follow the storm's path. I'll talk about Typhoon Sepat, as well.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Spoon
I can no longer access Jamaica's radar... is anyone else able to access it or did it really bite the dust?
Link

this site has good info on the tracks of hurricanes
AS DR. Steve Lyons was saying this morning, every move the eye makes or "wobbles" can make a significant effect/difference on where the storm goes or makes a direct hit, so i trust him as he is the Hurricane Expert, not me That's for sure.
wunderground computer models section has the gfdl

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_model.html#a_topad

this track is probably a lock for landfall somewhere in mexico will be hit not sure where
555 where are you getting the 18z GFDL?

The 18z models will be coming out soon. For those interested in them here are some tips...


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
Just checking in here,, I have been diligently following Dean since it was a wave... Part of my official duties...Just one comment on DEAN... WOW
From the NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 45 for Gilbert, 1988:

"The eye passed directly over the island [Jamaica]. It is estimated that 500,000 people, fully one-fifth of the population, were left home-
less. Forty-five people were killed there. The island's
electrical and water delivery systems were completely incapici-
tated. Many homes were poorly constructed and could not withstand'
winds of 125 mph, let alone higher gusts."

It was a Cat 3 when it made a direct hit on Jamaica. It dropped 27 inches of rain in the mountains.

Warning this link is for a PDF of the memorandum.
1510. Xion
I personally dont use the ADT for this storm because it has been wrong the whole way thru. it showed a weakening flag despite dean strengthening

I actually thought it was quite accurate, besides underestimating intensity the whole way through.

Whenever the Weakening flag went on earlier for more than a couple runs, the NHC noted that the storm lost some intensity.

I will wait for the NHC's advisory and HH data and new ADT runs before I make a decision.
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 11:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

well its a good thing they are getting rid of the gfdl.that thing is a piece of garbage


How is it garbage? It has had a great track record
ok so gfdl changes to mexico and everyone trash talks it, but when it points to texas, not a word about it
Thanks tristanh, I just checked there and it was not up yet. Thanks!!!

Although I am still going to be interested to see what the models say after we get upper air data in them. And the whole Mid to S Tx coast should stay alert.
1516. Dan187
looking at recon reports, there were 2 wind maximums on the entry, and there was an extrapulated pressure around 919.


they had one maximum at 117 kts, then winds dropped to 100kts, then went up to 117 kts again right outside the eye
Haven't we seen examples in the past where hurricanes act as though they want to avoid certain features, like mountains? Almost as if they try to bounce away from land for a 'moment', before once again submitting to steering flows? Could this be what we've seen, where Dean was getting close enough on the north side to the high mountains of Hispanola that it almost temporarilly 'pushed' itself away? Sorry if this has been mentioned already.
just kidden'...todays board is much smarter than some.
Hello........

Dean is moving very fast for cat 4-5.......could catch up with ULL
Don't go with every model shift. We went through this last night. Models with shift and the next run might be different from this.
StormJunkie.......Has the GFDL moved south or are they looking at something different?
1525. surfmom
Gat 07 - I believe that the Fl.St.model is a privately owned company - so their information is not made available to the public
wederwatcher just because the gfdl changed doesnt mean it sucks, it just means it is noticing something different
555, just wondering if you have anything positive to contribute here?

The GFDL is a good model and it has had a much better handle on intensity over any other model. HWRF included.
Now all the models are predictin' a hit in Mexico...
1530. rv1pop
Thanks all for your ideas and REASONS for them. I am NOT a weather expert-- In western Washington we say "if you don't like the weather, wait 30 minutes or go 30 miles and it will change." But I have family in Corpus and live and move in a motor home so I am trying to learn. Bashing others closes minds and mouths without giving information.. So PLEASE be civil - for this "newbies" sake. Thanks!
VEROBEACH,
I lived in GV, but one of my good friends lived near Lone Mountain. Summerlin is very nice, but I hate the turnabouts. It's Vegas not London.. lol
thank god the NHC is trashing the gfdl.

Stop saying that, they aren't.

The GFDL continues to be on the northern side
of the guidance envelope and is the only model that brings the
hurricane over the southern Texas coast. The official forecast GOES
along with the consensus of the dynamical models and keeps Dean in
the Bay of Campeche or southern Gulf of Mexico by day four. There
could be very uncertain days ahead since the GFDL has had a very
reliable track record.
dont be so sure of ur selves deans got a lot more tricks up his sleeve yet as albert eiestein once said there are only two things that have no end the universe and human stupidity
so wederwatcher would you be calling the gfs trash if it shifted north after all this time?
pressure down to 918
i agree with you extreme236
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 11:39 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

well its a good thing they are getting rid of the gfdl.that thing is a piece of garbage

How is it garbage? It has had a great track record
1539. surfmom
Fl Gulf coast surfers think the waves MAY make it here - time to check is tues/wednesday - The more Dean avoids the Yucatan the better the waves will be for us
---wpbhuirricane--Don't go with every model shift. We went through this last night. Models with shift and the next run might be different from this.
--good point------ dean SEEMS TO BE MOVING 2X AS FAST AS THE ull but may slow down thru jamaica area...... so it could be a wash-----or-- if it holds true--then we are in for a small surprise around 80-85w when a more northernly move is likely---IMO
Uncertain is the key word. Any other straight-line storms that anyone can think of?
1542. Xion
pressure down to 918

Could I have a link to where you get the recon data?
It looks like Dean will weaken over the Yucatan but Jamaica, the Caymans and the Yucatan are in a bit of trouble. The United States got lucky and it looks like there will be no hurricanes for the next fifteen days or so on the GFS. If we can make a couple weeks after that, it could be a very slow season!
Check FORECAST VERIFICATION!!!!!! For Katrina, Rita, Ivan, and others when they were four to five days away, as Dean is currently, the actual path didn't even fall within the entire span of the models & the NHC official forecast in some instances.

Houston is not clear yet and they won't know for sure about Texas or Mexico until Monday.
All the models are only 66% better than CLP5 in 3 days. After 5 days they are no better.
Dean could reverse course and shoot back like IVAN.
The last hurricane hunter graphic generated said they found a 918 surface MB .... deeper than Andrew's 922.
Posted By: Metallica1990 at 11:27 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

Posted By: DDR at 11:25 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

prayers? lol why talk to yourself when you can take evasive action,silly people



Firstly, praying is not talking to oneself. Some of believe that it changes things. Secondly, who says you have to be inanimate while praying. I often pray while I'm active.
Yep fsu, the GFDL has moved S. Again though, we have not had upper air data in a couple of days now, and while if I lived in Mex, my preps would be getting pretty serious by now, I don't think the Tx folks should let there guard down until the 00z upper air data comes in. jmho
what 918 mb?!
1550. C2News
Does anyone think Dean will track east of Texas?
for days 4 & 5.. take the models as a guide.. not law.. i can list for days.. where the models have been completely wrong.. and considering straight line canes are rare.. i would just consider this isn't over yet.
well once the new data from the HH's gets put in the models we will see what they say
1553. Dan187
winds wernt two impressive with recon, because of not area of strongest winds because of the ERC. Pressure however, has dropped.
whipster - straight line storms

history
This same little WSW wobble happened at the same time the feeder bands were spreading out in all directions but mostly on the northern side.

I have this weird idea the wobble WSW may be part of a shift to more true NW. It still may go north of Jamaica or cross SE to NW.

Or I've completely lost my mind and need a nap.

Any of these are possible, lol.

GOES east WV Loop
Link
One thought.. NASA who has access to the best technology in the world IS bringing home the space shuttle early because of the threat of DEAN.. If I was in TX, I'd keep watching.....
Posted By: C2News at 11:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

Does anyone think Dean will track east of Texas?


Exceedingly unlikely.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_hd.html?extraprod=hd#a_topad

WU's graphics say 918
For Dean, there will be no United States hit unless that ULL slows down very soon. It seems to be charging west faster than Dean! At least this season is starting much slower than 2005.
Dean is moving WSW. The GFS and CMC looks like they were right all along. Who knew the GFDL and HWRF could be so completely wrong. Jamaica might be spared afterall if Dean keeps jogging Westward. Bad news for the Yucatan.
918.7mb
918 mb reported
Posted By: Skyepony at 11:53 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

918.7mb

That's what I'm talkin' about.
lol Fl :~)
Stormy Thanks! The only one we can be sure of is Allen, the others may have done loops for all we know. The satellite tracking wasn't very good back in the 1800's :)
That image i posted shows how strong dean could get in the west caribbean.
There is no new pressure reading from the center on vortex data message.
Dropsonde Observations
Storm Name: DEAN (04L)
Mission Number: 07
Flight ID: AF302
Observation Number: 07
Time: 0000Z
Latitude: 16N
Longitude: 70.9W
#NAME?
Surface: 923 mb; Temp: 78F; Dewpt: 71F; NE (45) @ 121 mph
1000mb height: Unavailable
925mb height: Unavailable
850mb height: 2388 ft; Temp: 74F; Dewpt: 74F; E (85) @ 114 mph
700mb height: 11198 ft; Temp: 59F; Dewpt: 59F; E (100) @ 30 mph
500mb height: Unavailable
400mb height: Unavailable
300mb height: Unavailable
250mb height: Unavailable
200mb height: Unavailable
EYEWALL 045 SPL 1603N07095W 2339 MBL WND 06129 AEV 00000 =


923mb winds: NE (45) @ 121 mph
908mb winds: NE (50) @ 165 mph
902mb winds: NE (55) @ 156 mph
898mb winds: NE (55) @ 152 mph
893mb winds: NE (55) @ 157 mph
889mb winds: ENE (65) @ 149 mph
882mb winds: ENE (75) @ 156 mph
878mb winds: ENE (70) @ 147 mph
873mb winds: ENE (75) @ 146 mph
867mb winds: E (80) @ 123 mph
854mb winds: E (85) @ 122 mph
850mb winds: E (85) @ 114 mph
787mb winds: E (95) @ 118 mph
697mb winds: E (100) @ 26 mph
#VALUE!



The ULL and Ridge presently in place and the possible trof coming are the question marks for the models.

My concern here is that people from N Texas up around to Mobile are basically blowing this off.

While the probabilities favor the NHC's general solution, I am not yet completely sold.

With the general premise that Hurricanes move towards the weakest atmospheric feature, a fracture in that ridge or worse, a trough that displaces it (if it gets here in time) could be really ugly. Now add the ULL into that and things potentially get even worse.

The GFDL has been all over the place with this storm, as recently as 18 hours ago was looking directly at this potential, aiming at the middle of Lousiana! Now its gone to mexico. This sort of wild fluctuation tells me that the models have a SEVERE problem at present getting a handle on the interaction of these features.
Are we all sure that Dean won't go to Texas or Louisiana? The climatology tells us it could go to Tex. or La. more than to Mexico!
Ok cool, but it is not on NHC site yet.
8 oclock may be late
The pressure was from the high density, don't see vortex yet
I have this weird idea the wobble WSW may be part of a shift to more true NW

A couple of the models actually call for a slight turn in the very near future to true west and a little south...maybe. Those are the ones that send Dean into Tampico.
1577. surfmom
My question for tonight, If dean became a cat 5, wouldn't the storm be so strong that it would be it's own weather and then wouldn't it want to track to the warmest water in the the Gulf as well as go for the highest latitude???? Whew
the gfdl did not flip flop. it slowly grinded down south to the gfs solution. it is a lock on mexico 90% chance. worst case is brownsville thats a stretch. so people in brownsville stay ready but thats about it
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.

1582. Dan187
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...71.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.
Looks to me like a increase in forward speed has also accompanied Deans recent westward motion? any thoughts?
Why does there seem to be so much bickering about where Dean will make landfall next week, it will go somewhere. Models are cool but they are not certain, they jumped all over the place yesterday. If i still lived on the Gulf Coast I would not be comfortable till the storm was well West of me and even then strange things can happen. Today's wobbles are real important to Jamaica but to who will be suffering on Wednesday, we need to just all have to watch,wait and bicker if it makes you feel better.
I want to say the models are correct but yet the high pressure DOES NOT seem that strong and the ULL IS STILL NOT GONE! Seminolesfan makes some good points above. The models fluctuate on the smallest change in data. Will that data change soon? Will climatology take effect and draw it on the more likely path to Texas/La? I was going with the models but they aren't reliable enough!
1586. Daveg
Posted By: VegasRain at 11:52 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.
Dean is moving WSW. The GFS and CMC looks like they were right all along. Who knew the GFDL and HWRF could be so completely wrong. Jamaica might be spared afterall if Dean keeps jogging Westward. Bad news for the Yucatan.


This is also premature...how many times have these models swung back and forth? Many, many times. I think they are having a HUGE problem getting a handle on anything more than a day or two out.
two decent analogs for straight line cape verdes are gilbert and allen. I hope it follows or goes left of these

and
923mb winds: NE (45) @ 121 mph

That is flying pretty dang low! What 1000ft?
sorry and
Storm DEAN: Observed by AF #302
Storm #04 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #04: 07
Date/Time of Recon Report: August 18, 2007 23:37:50 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 16 01 ' N 070 53 ' W (16.02 N 70.88 W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700 Millibars: 2382 Meters (Normal: 3011 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 102 Knots (117.3 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: 005 Nautical Miles (5.75 miles) From Center At Bearing 011
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 118 Knots (135.7 MPH) From 105
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 006 Nautical Miles (6.9 Miles) From Center At Bearing 013
Minimum Pressure: extrap 920 Millibars (27.166 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 15C (59F) / 3047 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 16C (60.8F) / 3024 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 15C (59F) / NAC (NAF)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: CO
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 1 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 118 KT N Quadrant at 23:36:00 Z
2: SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
3: MET ACCURACY 1NM
Looks to me like a increase in forward speed has also accompanied Deans recent westward motion? any thoughts?

I think I can see that in the last frame of the IR loop, but probably wouldn't have without the power of suggestion.
Amystery.. ieps... NHC was predicting a wnw track all time... since days ago... DAAAYS!... but some people here are obsesed w/ Texas or new orleans.. or even more Florida.

WNW means Jamaica, Cayman an Mexico
god bless anyone in jamaica, the yucatan, or mexico. hopefully this thing chokes somewhere somehow
(ahem) "PAST PERFORMANCE IS NO GUARANTEE OF FUTURE RESULTS" (AHEM)
SJ~ that's surface pressure at that spot...
Nice pic of the airplane in the storm Melagoo...

I'm loving it!
ok you are vindicated :) It looks like Cat 5 tonight, although we all knew it was all but inevitable.
Seminoles Fan
"My concern here is that people from N Texas up around to Mobile are basically blowing this off."

NOT A CHANCE HERE!
after Ivan, NO WAY,
all I know if it stays CAT 4 or 5, it won't matter if I am in appilachicola , P cola , Mobile, or NOLA, it's gonna be BIG enough to get us all!
Johnhopefan~ scroll back to the dropsnode, they are working their way down.
1603. Melagoo
Thanks Alison
Well I guess this, if it stays S of Jamaica, the mountains of Cuba will not hurt it at all and the SSTs will be very warm, and it is likely to continue at a decent rate of speed. This thing will be real nasty by time it gets to the Yuc. When Wilma hit it approached much slower. Likely leading to some weakening. Dean very well could roar in to the Yuc as a Cat 5 eyewall and all.
the states lucked out big. we got our cat 5 now lets hope the rest of this season is a bust..i think it will be
1606. surfmom
Verobeach - Great quote -
1607. Dan187
Recon data clearly shows 2 eye walls

below is time at 30 second intervals, and the wind speed in kts at the time (max 10 second winds during the 30 second period) from HH reports when going into the eye.
232830 102
232900 102
232930 108
233000 105
233030 106
233100 110
233130 116
233200 115
233230 113
233300 117
233330 113
233400 106
233430 102
233500 106
233530 113
233600 117
233630 115
233700 062
233730 020
233800 007

normally it should have picked up with out drops until a max right before entering the eye, but since it has concentric eyewalls, this is not the case.
Gilbert went right over Jamaica and seemed to suffer no ill effects.
697mb winds: E (100) @ 26 mph

No way skye, how could surface pressure at the spot be 697 with 26mph winds...
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 12:09 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

the states lucked out big. we got our cat 5 now lets hope the rest of this season is a bust..i think it will be


how will this be a bust? its mid august, now if it were mid september, maybe. although we could have a couple storms in the next week or so, so maybe you should wait and say that later
aggie, I took the first three hour frame of the SSD loop with lat lon on and compared it to the next two hours...
i told it figures that when the hunters go out there EWRC begins
this thing isnt going to hit the nothern gulf coast at all...all who think so are wishcasters at their best...unfortunantly this is mexicos problem after poor jamaica gets beat up by it...southern texas still has that slight chance....but i doubt they will get anything more than rain and blustery conditions...ts force winds...of course they dont even need that at this point....
Dean is slowly slowing down it's forward speed.Does a fast moving hurricane have a greater or lesser chance of making a northerly turn, when it is recurving, than a slower moving one and why?I have heard it explained both ways on TV weather.
1616. surfmom
Can Dean get so big and powerful that it affects it's own course --things like lows, trough, shear, won't matter? Is it folk lore or is it true that hurricanes like to go to the higher latitude? Wouldn't Dean be lured to the warmest water in the Gulf which is more in the middle?
1618. NOWCAST
lured to the warmest water?? I hope they dont work that way :P
Looks like Dean has taken a WSW motion over the past couple hours....
1620. drj27
so still no chance of dean coming to the panhandle of florida
Deans t number is now 6.5
Posted By: Stormy2day at 11:51 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.

whipster - straight line storms



That graphic showed ONE straight line storm in the last century.
this thing is gonna bomb out again...i dont know about tonight...possibly tomarrow...it looks to be trying to do its ewrc...so might have to wait blow up till tommorrow...
1624. JPV
Posted By: wederwatcher555

ya sure it has a great track record..tell that to the people of mexico who now have 48 hrs less to prepare for this monster if they listened to the POS. DIE GFDL DIE.

Posted By: wederwatcher555

the gfdl is worse than the cmc lol. at least the cmc had mexico what 3 days ago? this POS takes 3 runs today to finally figure it out


What's your problem? GFDL has had a very good record for the last several years. If I remember correctly it was the only model, of the big four, to predict Katrina's landfall correctly.

Either way, these long range forecasts can change on a dime anyway. I think that you are putting WAY too much stock into their accuracy. It's still a fledgling science as far as I'm concerned.

BTW, let's see the model that predicted Ivan's path correctly...

Hurricane Ivan
1626. Xion
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 940.1mb/124.6kt

ADT is messing with my mind.

The Weakening Flag is still on, but some of the T# estimates are rising.

6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4

as compared to

6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2
6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3

the last two times.
I see Houston is already evacuating.... I guess they learned from Rita not to get stuck in traffic and run outta gas
Hey Guys for later tonight

Jamaica Radar!!

http://www.metservice.gov.jm/radarpage.asp
1629. guygee
Posted By: tampaENG at 11:47 PM GMT on August 18, 2007.
"All the models are only 66% better than CLP5 in 3 days. After 5 days they are no better."
[...]
Good point tampaENG, and that was one of the major points of Dr. Masters very last blog. That tells you something about the attention span of a couple of the crowing roosters in this otherwise informative and relatively laidback blog today.

BTW, major pieces of the GFDL have gone into the HWRF as it evolves, so think of it as a more sophisticated upgrade to the GFDL, not really a completely new model.
BTW, let's see the model that predicted Ivan's path correctly...


Acually, the GFS did!
1631. Spoon
CajunSubbie is that working for you? I haven't been able to view that site for a good hour or so.
Greetings from Nassau :)
Our prayers and thoughts are with all those affected by Dean and other hurricanes this season. I also hope that the feeder bands that are heading towards the south and central Bahamas do not cause any loss of life to areas still getting back to normal after the storms two years ago. Blessings to Jamaica, Cayman, Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamian islands of Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins and Mayaguana.
All the best to all
mybahamas
1634. JPV
Posted By: watchingnva

this thing isnt going to hit the nothern gulf coast at all...all who think so are wishcasters at their best...unfortunantly this is mexicos problem after poor jamaica gets beat up by it...southern texas still has that slight chance....but i doubt they will get anything more than rain and blustery conditions...ts force winds...of course they dont even need that at this point....


LOL... famous last words. There is NO telling where it will end up yet. Give it 2-3 more days before making such bold statements.
Kerry: If Dean does slow down or meander, there will be a definite chance for it to go north as the high pressure isn't that strong except later near North Carolina. Also, there are some lows in the western states and the high pressure has been dominating the same area for a LONG TIME AND MAY GIVE WAY ON THE NEXT DATA OF THE GFS! surfmom: yes, the hurricanes like to go north and cool off things. Guess what Erin didn't finish off the U.S. because there are still hot temps building once again and they do like the warm waters to some degree. Man, no wonder the models miss so much, there are more factors at work than one can imagine.
1636. hornfan
I see Houston is already evacuating.... I guess they learned from Rita not to get stuck in traffic and run outta gas

Hmmm - please post a link
555 needs to call those Houston people and let em' know they can stay home! LMAO
Live radio coverage from Kingston:
Link
1639. surfmom
Hey Texas1 - wxciting evening ahead
anybody else here think that the hurricane hunters missed the best action by about an hour
I guess im alone but im not sold on the mexico hit--sry--just IMO
1643. JPV
Posted By: Caffinehog

BTW, let's see the model that predicted Ivan's path correctly...

Acually, the GFS did!


Interesting, even the loop back into the Eastern Coast, over Florida and back into the Gulf? Or just where the landfall was?
Fast moving hurricaines are less likely to recurve.
Slower hurricaines are more likely to recurve.
Storms accellerate as they recurve.
...ill repeat...texas is the ONLY part of the gulf coast that has to worry about anything as of right now...there will be no large right turn...hope everyone along the mexican coast is knowing what is heading their way...
Never mind. Looks like the Kingston radio servers are overloaded. Best to keep them clear for folks down there!
I know watchin. houston appear to be in the clear mexico on the other hand has a platefull.
Spoon it works for me.. no idea.
For everyone that is wishcasting dean into the Gulf, it just can't happen. There will be a 1020 High anchored in the southeast. This high if anything will be building westward into early next week. If there was any chance for Dean to turn north, that high would have to quickly shift east. The models will most likely continue trending further left with each successive run. South Texas isn't totally out of the woods, but the chances of Dean having any effect here is also diminishing.
Dean has an obvious Westerly motion that should continue if the ULL over the Eastern Gulf continues its swift motion - (faster than Dean)

We'll see...
I see Houston is already evacuating.... I guess they learned from Rita not to get stuck in traffic and run outta gas

News to me. Roads outbound weren't too busy today. Wouldn't surprise me tho. I left a day earlier than I thought I needed to for Rita, still took me 3 hours to drive an hour north, and that thankfully was a short trip.

The sad part is, it's supposed to be 'better' this time, but I'm not so certain. A large portion of it seems to be contingent upon evac zones, and letting people closer to the coast leave first.

Like -that- is going to happen.
1655. H2PV
Dean, Infrared Heat Emissions signifying Water Density.

http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/20070818_2315._04LDEAN_130kts.jpg
http://www.h2-pv.us/wiki_100mpg/img/wiki_up/20070818_2315._04LDEAN_130kts.jpg
Metallica: They did miss the best action. They did that in 2005 several times. There are way too many outflow boundaries in far west Texas on the opposite side of Erin's track. It's like the continental divide: ERIN'S track. Watch the action along the former track!
i think as does the nhc, that dean will get into the gom. except from there it will hit mexico. its remotley possibl it could turn and hit se texas but the most likely us impact would be if it tunred a bit and hit brownsville which could actually happen.
1659. Tropix3
I'm due to be in Cancun 11 days after this storm hits. Does anyone have any idea how soon their electricity can be restored? Did they rebuild any of their structures and power sources to withstand more after Wilma?
Posted By: ST0RMT0P at 12:28 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

President Bush has signed a pre-landfall emergency disaster declaration for Texas, allowing the federal government to immediately send people, equipment and supplies to the state when Dean makes landfall there


......
1661. IKE
Posted By: ST0RMT0P at 7:28 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
President Bush has signed a pre-landfall emergency disaster declaration for Texas, allowing the federal government to immediately send people, equipment and supplies to the state when Dean makes landfall there.


Who says it's making landfall there?

Is Jamaica gonna be spared? Dean jogged south for a short time.
1662. hornfan
hornfan... was watching TWC, yes they suck, but did see a skit where houston was evac....

I don't know what they were showing - probably the Rita evac. Or just the usual traffic in Houston lol - but no evac has been called in Houston and to say that an evac in process is irresponsible
Posted By: Tropix3 at 12:28 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

I'm due to be in Cancun 11 days after this storm hits. Does anyone have any idea how soon their electricity can be restored? Did they rebuild any of their structures and power sources to withstand more after Wilma?


i would cancel the trip. it wont be back and chances are they wont even let you go there infastructure will be shatterd.
1664. surfmom
cirroculumous - BIG thanks for answering my question - it's interesting to listen to the experience Florida surfers & fishermen and then compare to the models. It was a surfer buddy of mine who insisted that Charlie was headed for port Charlotte - even I didn't believe him, now I listen to the experienced locals who have a "feel" but I don't ignore the hard science either
Look at that last posted WV. If Dean maintains a due west path Jamaica might escape the cdo.
1668. guygee
Posted By: surfmom at 12:13 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
"Can Dean get so big and powerful that it affects it's own course --things like lows, trough, shear, won't matter? Is it folk lore or is it true that hurricanes like to go to the higher latitude? Wouldn't Dean be lured to the warmest water in the Gulf which is more in the middle?"

surfmom- Large hurricanes can affect relatively weak systems around them, but they cannot stand up for long against strong troughs or highs coming down from the mid-latitudes.

Hurricanes do tend to gain latitude as they progress though the Atlantic basin. A hurricane will travel WNW in the Northern Hemisphere even if the steering flow is calm. But a strong high will overwhelm this effect and push the storms west or even southwest on occasion.

Hurricanes do not seek out warm water, but are more likely to develop in very warm water.

Hope this helps.

this thing is not going to curve north dramatically. the ivan curve was anticipated by all the models. it was the opposite they wanted it to curve right from the get go but it took forever to finally curve. ya the models got katrina dead wrong but that was a totally different type of path not capeverde. show me a storm where the models got a capeverde completely wrong in recent history?
Surfmom,

Dean is powerful enough to create its own environment inside the larger environment of highs and lows that determine its path - so yes, bigger hurricanes can push things around them a bit - but they still will obey the laws of physics - or in this case - fluid dynamics.

Dean does not sense or follow the warm water patterns in the ocean. It can't move its path toward warmer waters - it is guided by the larger patterns in the atmosphere. During hurricane season in the Atlantic, the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico frequently have high TCHP or tropical cyclone heat potential. Meaning that these areas have deep layers of very warm water which is available to feed a tropical system. Since many tropical systems move over these waters during the season, it is something that is taken into account when trying to predict hurricane intensity.

The warmest water isn't necessarily in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. There is an overall current - the Caribbean Current that flows west bringing warm water from the Equatorial Current (at the equator between the North Atlantic and South Atlantic) into the Caribbean and then there is another current in the Gulf of Mexico- the Loop Current. The Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico is much like its name. It makes a loop into the Gulf of Mexico before the warm water flows into the channel between Florida and the Bahamas. The Loop Current sometimes extends all the way up to Louisiana or it can get cut short and move water right into the Straits of Florida. The Loop Current is always changing position and size in the Gulf of Mexico.

Hope that helps.
Posted By: watchingnva at 8:13 PM EDT on August 18, 2007. this thing isnt going to hit the nothern gulf coast at all...all who think so are wishcasters at their best...unfortunantly this is mexicos problem after poor jamaica gets beat up by it...southern texas still has that slight chance....but i doubt they will get anything more than rain and blustery conditions...ts force winds...of course they dont even need that at this point....

#1- That is an irresponsible post...no one knows exactly where it will end up yet.
#2- If stating an OPINION on knowing where it will or will not go makes a person a "wishcaster", you are being hypocritical by saying yourself it will not go here or there.
#3-Guess that makes you a wishcaster also!
That would put jamaica on the dirty side.
Only evac in TX are for high-profile campers/RV's off of S Padre. Brownsville has called a voluntary evac as of this afternoon:

http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/island_79410___article.html/storm_residents.html

CHECK OUT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP ON THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING WEST IT HAS MOVED SOUTHWEST WHICH MEANS IT IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO DEAN THAN IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN HAD IT GONE DUE WEST. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN? STAY TUNED TO THE NEXT GFS RUN AT 12AM!
1675. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:30 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
isnt stormtop the same person as stormkat?


It's someone different. This ST has his name in all caps....the original didn't.
1676. drj27
so someone explain to me what would have to happen for it to come to the panhandle hope it dont just wondering if we are out of the woods
watchinwxnwpb at 12:31 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Posted By: watchingnva at 8:13 PM EDT on August 18, 2007. this thing isnt going to hit the nothern gulf coast at all...all who think so are wishcasters at their best...unfortunantly this is mexicos problem after poor jamaica gets beat up by it...southern texas still has that slight chance....but i doubt they will get anything more than rain and blustery conditions...ts force winds...of course they dont even need that at this point....

#1- That is an irresponsible post...no one knows exactly where it will end up yet.
#2- If stating an OPINION on knowing where it will or will not go makes a person a "wishcaster", you are being hypocritical by saying yourself it will not go here or there.
#3-Guess that makes you a wishcaster also!
I agree
Well, we are ready as much as we can over here in Cozumel. If we do get a direct hit like from Emily of 2005, we should back up and running within a week. However, if Dean will replicate Wilma, all bets are off.
1681. JPV
Posted By: surfmom

It was a surfer buddy of mine who insisted that Charlie was headed for port Charlotte - even I didn't believe him, now I listen to the experienced locals who have a "feel" but I don't ignore the hard science either


I worked in the Caribbean, for a short while, and some of the locals could predict when a storm was coming, and for how long it would last, down to the minute. Better that ANY Weatherman ever could.

I've also witness how the weather in the Caribbean can drastically change in a matter of seconds.

Those making all these predictions, with so much bravado and certainty, are being foolish. It's still too early to tell where this thing will end up.
OK Guys listen yes it is true that they think this is going to Mexico.... But is it??? Let not for get the track of the ULL that will pass in front of Dean and that alone could send Dean to the north some where around the TX/LA border... Now some need not say that this thing is going to miss the US because anything can happen from now untill it gets in the Gulf.... Also if the storm slows down any at all it could go North, South, or just Due West....

Alot of things have to happen, The High building in and the ULL that will cross in front of Dean..... So lets all wait and see what will happen in 2 - 3 days.... Then we go from there..

Taco :0)
1683. surfmom
BeenthereinMiami - Wow thanks for the information ...night all

BeenThere in Miami: True the upper level flow constrains the storms but warm waters due increase intensity which changes the atmosphere which changes the ULL flow pattern which changes the storms. So there may be an indirect effect of some sort!
so where is my update from StormKat's weather office? ive been waiting for that all evening lol
rodrigo winds killed a few in katrina but most of the deaths here is ms and in la were to due storm surge and unexpected record setting storm surge. as for la its was the levees that gave that killed so many. not wind
the models are taking into account all these troughs ulls ridges etc. and all the models with their different configurations are coming to the same conclusion...MEXICO. each run keeps getting more south also this could be a central america cane for all we know lol
people keep talkin potential northward turn what about southward turn lol
jvp. its been said that the old cuban weathermen are some of the best hurricane predicters in the world. i read several books where the cubans predicted the great galvastan hurricane when the NWS at the time saw no such storm in the gulf.
1694. surfmom
Guygee - just caught your information - This stuff is just so fascinating. G.night
1696. will40
presslord at 12:40 AM GMT on August 19, 2007. (hide)

What the process for getting someone to address all this racism?


Hit the lil red mark on the right
IMO--yup--i been stating that all along--- sry if this upsets someone BUT-- i have a strong feeling--and this is again IMO--- that somewhere between 80Wand 85W , well, ill just say by 85west, that DEAN could possible show a MORE northernly track than what is showing on the models---MEXICO will still feel effects but maybe not a direct hit---please people--dont take this in stone---this is just IMO-----
--as for now--we will watch dean wibble wobble along in all sorts of misdirections-- WNW. WSW,DUE west etc........
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_hd.html?extraprod=hd#a_topad

Minimum surface pressure of 918mb? Is this recent? This is catergory 5-caliber if it is true. Could very well be the case--satellite presentation has improved dramatically over the past 6 hours and the west side of the storm is looking fuller and healthier. Also note the south-of-forecast track in the last 3 frames. Probably just a wobble, but it could mean Jamaica is on the NE side of the eyewall and the worst case scenario for surge...
Guygee - good point. People who don't understand how confidence decrease with increasing time in forecast models should show the proper humility when making comments on landfall four days from now. Look at image below and you'll see that both Mexico and Texas are within the error cone.

And that is based on todays models runs, based on todays weather data. Tomorrows input data could yield a different center line and a three day confidence error that includes much of Texas coast and perhaps even Louisiana.

sd

The closer we get to the time of landfall the more confidence we can have that the models will be on target. This graph shows how our confidence in landfall location prediction changes with the number of days out.

er
Here's my prediction:

Dean will actually make landfall in Seattle... after blasting right across Mexico like he was Ponce deLeon... then a brief drink of the Pacific before swinging north to listen to some grunge.

BET ON IT!

Seriously... no-one has any idea where it's going to hit... they're all guessing. Until about this time next week, anyone who lives in a vulnerable area needs to be aware of it... and get outta the way if it gets close... that's all.
1703. obxrox
i had suggested that NHC's 11am plot for 19/00z would be too far south:

12HR VT 19/0000Z 16.4N 71.0W 130 KT

looks like 16.2N 71.0W at 18/2345Z...props to those guys...guess i'll keep my day job! ;)
1704. IKE
Posted By: extreme236 at 7:38 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
so where is my update from StormKat's weather office? ive been waiting for that all evening lol


He's flying over Dean in his crop-duster...fixin to unleash a dropsonde and doing what he can to push Dean to the north of Jamaica like his office notified us earlier that it would do.
I have a question that hopefully someone can answer...

If the ULL over Eastern Gulf of Mexico begins a WSW movement and eventually moves in the area where Dean is supposed to go, Can't that force Dean to go a little further north than expected?

TIA
def. not a wishcaster here :)...id prefer we have a fish storms...basically all im doing is stating what every model shows and 90% of mets are saying...so I guess you could say Im quoting...not giving my opinion...I just happen to agree with them...:)
people have an idea where this is going yucatan and then mexico. bank on it.
Cirrocumulus - yup. I'm always preaching about how the ocean and atmosphere are "talking" to one another and it is a circular feedback mechanism. However, I didn't want to make it too complicated because that discussion could go on a while. She really just wanted to know, I think, if the hurricane would be attracted in some way towards warmer water.
The upper flow pattern is not in itself enough to predict the storms since the various effects of warm-cold bodies of water and land directly change the strength and pattern of air and water and interact with previous outflow boundaries. That is why even STORMKAT can appear correct at this point.
weder who you consider this cape verde storm.. wrong forcast? can you imagine the models on this storm.. cape verde shifty gal.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2003/KATE_graphics.shtml
1716. PBG00
people keep talkin potential northward turn what about southward turn lol

LOL...
MZapalla and the other racist commentors I hope there's a way to ban you for life.

Many less developed countries have poorer infrastructure and many of the people lack personal transportation. It has nothing to with their ethnicity and your comment is just plain ignorant.


not sure if its a couple wobbles or what, but it appears we have a deviation to the forecast track..... for Jamaica's sake, due west would be good!
LAWeatherguy,
Yes it can... The ULL that will cross in front of Dean can send it to the North.....

Taco :0)
Evening SJ, Tcc, & all. Man, the blog is reaching an all time low on here tonight. Racist comments...that is disgusting! Anyhow, should be interesting to see if Dean blows up tonight! SJ how are you even functioning at this point?! Lot's of caffeine? LOL!
lol thats one crazy storm. good find.
What you think tcc
1724. guygee
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 12:30 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
"this thing is not going to curve north dramatically. the ivan curve was anticipated by all the models. it was the opposite they wanted it to curve right from the get go but it took forever to finally curve. ya the models got katrina dead wrong but that was a totally different type of path not capeverde. show me a storm where the models got a capeverde completely wrong in recent history?"

I have no idea what you mean by "completely wrong" but we do not have to go back very far to find above average error in the long-term forecast for a Cape Verde system. I found one on my second try: Emily 2005
Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Irene 4 - 18 August 2005

"Average official track errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Irene were 40 (54), 68 (52), 103 (50), 142 (48), 201 (44), 268 (40), and 345 (36) n mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts, respectively. These errors are smaller than the average official track errors through 72 hours and then larger than average at 96 and 120 h for the 10-yr period 1995-2004L [(42, 75, 107, 138, 202, 236, and 310 n mi, respectively), (Table 2)]. The first few forecasts had a right bias after 72 hours as a result of the models prematurely eroding the western portion of the subtropical ridge. However, subsequent official forecast tracks beginning on 9 August correctly predicted that Irene would pass about midway between Bermuda and the U.S. east coast, with only a slight left bias. After Irene recurved through the mean ridge axis and began moving in an easterly direction, both the official forecast tracks and the majority of the NHC model guidance had a pronounced left bias. This was the result of the models overdeveloping a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern United States that was expected to lift the cyclone northeastward immediately after recurvature into the westerlies had occurred."
heres the emily track and models. you can make up your own mind if they were off or not

Link
1729. PBG00
guess some people just love death and destruction

Or they have never been through a major hurricane, or don't own a house or have anything to lose.
Posted By: PBG00 at 12:45 AM GMT on Agosto 19, 2007.
people keep talkin potential northward turn what about southward turn lol

LOL...


Ieps... is making a big south jog now... and was making a big north jog this morning.
if you watch the sat loops.. dean is just very wobbly right now. but it looks dead on the forcast track..
Message to Mississippians about Dean left on my answering machine this morning

Link
1734. IKE
Posted By: CajunSubbie at 7:50 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.
if you watch the sat loops.. dean is just very wobbly right now. but it looks dead on the forcast track..


It's veering to the left of the tropical forecast points...possible great news for Jamaica and the Caymans.
Looks like Dean is starting to take a jog to the South.

Link

The steering currents look to favor that in the short term.

Link

Just maybe Jamaica will be spared the eye, let hope.
I nap between model runs wpb...lol :~)

I agree, back to the storm. Been a way and see that things are crazy...

InCoz, stay safe, thoughts will be with you and all the folks in the islands in the path!
Maybe Jamaica will get a jog yet...latest Recon

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_sche ma=PORTAL
Would anyone agree with that is looks as if the eyewall replacement cycle is over? If so what do we expect next? another night of Rapid intensification or just over all building of the size of the storm?
"Posted By: CajunSubbie
if you watch the sat loops.. dean is just very wobbly right now. but it looks dead on the forcast track.."


that may be true, but my west line has been extrapolated from the first 2 "actual" storm positions.... this is a deviation, even if temporary..... but a small deviation now, could be several hundred miles down the line.....
1743. PBG00
Tomorrow is another day..and it will be more of the same..Have fun. To all those in Deans immediate path, stay safe.
1744. wadcane
Is the forecast of a hurricane that is moving on a due WEST track consider the tilt of the AXIS of the EARTH. I look at the GEOS satellite maps and the longitude and latitude are North/South and EAST/WEST (Horizontal and Vertical). But the earth is tilted on its axis. So Does anybody know that when these computer modules make predictions that they take into account of the earth's tilt??? For example a computer module forecast out 120 hours or 1000 mile can vary significantly because of the earths tilt. I hope some can explain this to me. Thanks
1745. guygee
Posted By: wederwatcher555 at 12:49 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.
"heres the emily track and models. you can make up your own mind if they were off or not"

Or you could read the Offical NHC post-season report that I linked to and quoted.
(Reading, what a novel concept!)

BBL when the trolls are asleep.

The steering currents look to favor that in the short term.

Agree, and also a pop to the north after that is done IMO
Drak, SW - I was at work all day and I do not have individual blog links. Do either of you have updates since the 8:00 PM EDT?
THE LATEST INFRARED FLOATER AT NOAA SHOWS A RESUMPTION ONT THE WNW PROJECTED PATH. THE WSW MOTION ENDED ON THE LATEST LOOP.
Last frames show a N of west trajectory after the S wobble
1755. russh46
I saw that also cirro, but I didn't want to say anything...
No worries... CMC and GFS are calling for more canes.... one comes to south FL it looks like.. LOL LOL...

Dean is only letter 'D'.

What is it like 22 letters are available?
HURRICANE DEAN IS BACK ON TRACK ACCORDING TO THE FLOATER. JAMAICA IS ON THE DIRECT PATH ONCE AGAIN. AND THE STRONG SIDE OF THE STORM IS POSSIBLY GOING TO HIT JAMAICA! PLEASE BE SAFE.
1758. bobcane
wadcane

The Models take the Coriolis effect in account as a part of its fluid dynamics pack and the Coriolis effect is the result of the Earth's tilt toward the poles. It's in every major model. Use the link below to read about it.

Link
Major Hurricanes like Dean wobble a lot. It will continue wobbling N and S but have an averaged out heading of W to WNW.
Uhh oh, someone said Trolls...Hey, everyone can use a good laugh:~)

Evening thel, how's life in MYB?

wadc, I am pretty sure the models under stand the shape of the earth...If that is what you are asking...
wederwatcher555----"people have an idea where this is going yucatan and then mexico. bank on it."
-1)- i dont use a bank and
-2)- im not buying it yet-----
I think it is wobbling so much because the cloud mass is trying to reorganize around the center. It is sort of weighted to one side so it pulls S and then to N as that deep convection rotates around. My guess at least.

1764. drj27
yep its going to hit mexico
Anyone know when the new models will be released?
Here is a great example of how much hurricanes can wobble. This is a visable clip of Hurricane Wilma. Its only 4 seconds long, but it shows how hurricanes never travel in straight lines. Link
I was surprised that Mike Seidel on the Weather Channel said that only Hurricane Al and Hurricane Hugo have had lower pressures than Hurricane Dean.
I thought Hurricane Wilma had the record.
Can someone explain?
When will the ULL begin to dissipate or no longer have any effect?
hello all, long time reader, first post. anyway, you guys are very informative, AND very entertaining, lol. i dont have any info on a ULL or a new front, but a do have a cool pic i know you'll enjoy. its from the space station taken on the 15 or 16 when dean was a cat 1, but still a cool pic. i'd like to see a more recent one and i'll keep my eyeout for one. heres the link:
http://www.9news.com/imageenlarge.aspx?storyid=75612

thanks again for all the valuable info. and to all the drama in this room all i can give you is one of my favorite quotes:
"you can never prove a negativity to a certainty, , all you can do is determine the probability"
Was NYCFD out Rod?

Do we have any island folks in here tonight?
It's not going south. It's just wabbling along 16N(edit)

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Link


One thing I think Dean is doing is the wind direction over the island to the north is pumping moisture up into high elevations and into the western side of Dean.

Dean
1774. ezziboo
Can anyone tell me what (if anything) influences the speed/direction of the ULL entering the easter GOM?
listenerVT - I think he said "eastern Caribbean" as opposed to the western Caribbean where Wilma had her lowest pressure - which may be correct - I don' know.
hiya stormjunkie :)
I'm here in Nassau, The Bahamas ... watching the feeder bands hitting our southern islands, like Inagua, which are still a little woobly from the bout of canes two years ago :(
Evening SDF :~)

Welcome deerfield ☺

Speaking of cool images, MIMIC is great, can not wait til it updates!!! That loop is fairly old, but we should get a new one sometime in the next 6hrs I think.
According to the outflow Dean should move WNW/NW now....
I'm new to the blog. Wanted to thank everyone for helping keep us "newcomers" on top of things. I'm in the FL Panhandle and everyone here is still watching Dean very closely.
1781. fire635
Thankfully (the the US) most of the models agree on a Mexican landfall with Dean now... anyone have any imput on what the cmc is developing off the east coast of FL? so far only one other model sees anything there, but the cmc seems to develop a decent system.
pressure now found at 917mb. and it isnt even in the west caribbean yet. imagine how low it will be then
Evening Bahamas ☺ Ok, you got me. Good to see ya!

Any Jamaicans or Caymanians here?
1785. wadcane
Thanks Bobcane. I looked at your link on the Coriolis effect. Just a little too technical for me but its nice to know that the computer models takes this into account. I always wondered about this in hurricane forecasting.
1786. bobcane
CMC is not reliable.
Hi SJ.

I'm interested in anyone's thoughts as to why recon found a pressure of 920 millibars but yet only max flight lvl winds of 118 knots. That doesn't even support winds of 150 mph, but the 920 millibars sure does. I wonder why recon wasn't able to find higher winds.... well I know sometimes the winds lag a little bit after the pressure drops so I bet it wont take much longer.
1788. drj27
no need to watch the florida panhandle deans not going to hit us here he said we didnt make the deans list this year
BeenThereinMiami...

Many Thanks! :-)
Anyone else from FL Panhandle?
1792. Xion
StormJunkie, what is your take on the storm's intensity and EWRCs and such as of tonight...oh mighty weather God?
DRJ27, Well Said!
where is the info that the building has collapsed or is that not true
Welcome aboard storml ☺

Evening fire, not sure what else is out there. All eyes on Dean!
Posted By: stormlovr at 1:19 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Anyone else from FL Panhandle?


yep, Pensacola
PCola; very cool .... I'm in PC Beach.
1798. dearmas
My husband is in NY and said that it's been on fire since 3pm
StormJunkie, glad to be here. I enjoy reading all your comments.
1800. drj27
what is up on the weather channel always having preg women telling the weather lol
Watching TWC now ...... Where is Cantore?
good evening SJ
Myb is good SJ....... but certainly better when all the tourist's leave! LOL

You'll have to come to the new Hard Rock theme part next year! First coaster (the Led Zep) is almost done! :)

I still think Dean may skirt a little S of Jamaica, but I certainly would be "ready" to whatever extent you can be with such a dangerous storm!
1804. JPV
Posted By: TheStormWillSurvive

where is the info that the building has collapsed or is that not true


It's NOT true. There is a FIRE, in an abandoned Manhattan bank building. 2 Firefighters have died however.
Posted By: stormlovr at 8:24 PM CDT on August 18, 2007.

Watching TWC now ...... Where is Cantore?


He should wear a GPS locator and have a dot on google maps.
IMO---i think that dean will be heading on its same WNW course--with lots of directional wobbles---and in the next few updates, end up slightly going NW, AND MORE WNW SOMEWHERE BEFORE the 85W mark. dean is gonna be influenced by the ULL that is moving WSW and the models may show this soon........IMO---- :)
SDF, the eye got real small earlier and was open at one point also cloud filled, supposedly part of an EWRC, although it is not what I am use to seeing with this type of system, and Dean weakened some with the daytime heating as well. As it gets cranked back up the pressure drop comes first. The winds catch up to it later.

oh mighty weather God

lmao, not quite, I'm hear to learn just like y'all. Just been doing it for a few years now...Thanks for the props though ☺

As for intensity tonight, i would expect modest intensification with it getting in to warmer and warmer waters along with the Diurnal max tonight we could see Dean get back up over 150 fairly easily imho. At some point I would expect Dean to doughnut, but that will take either another EWRC, or real completion of this last one.
Dr M put up a new blog a few minutes ago!
Evening JG, you in got a safe place staked out? Getting nervous?
Friv - I don't know if that includes anyone but you!
that was a very cool sequence shot stormjunkie, i've bookmarked you earlier in the week, very nice site, and very overwhelming being a novice.lol
Posted By: stormlovr at 1:24 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Watching TWC now ...... Where is Cantore?


I had to zoom in , but I found Jim caught in Dean's eye about an hour ago. ;-)




Jim Cantore found caught in eye of Dean
Posted By: stormlovr at 1:19 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Anyone else from FL Panhandle?



Close enough. Orange Beach AL.
Daphne, Al.
Orange Beach is awesome. Coming back to FL from Alaska has been a BIG adjustment. I forgot how much these storms make me nervous.
Maybe Cantore is still in Hawaii........until Dean gets to the Yucatan at least.
Would anyone agree with that is looks as if the eyewall replacement cycle is over? If so what do we expect next? another night of Rapid intensification or just over all building of the size of the storm?
Fl30258713, glad you found Cantore.
Dr Masters has a new blog up ya'll
Just looked at the 0045 sat update. Still moving W and I think the eye will pass S of the next projected NHC point. I hope so, we will see.
Does anyone know of a hurricane having "phobic" reaction to a land mass? I have noticed, on many occasions, a storm's jog parallels a land mass's border. I remember one storm, maybe Ivan, making a half circle around an island. Also, upon landfall, there is frequently a jog of,give or take, 50 miles. It is as if it is trying to avoid land. The recent jog w/sw (whatever) parallel to Haiti made me remember thinking this. Now I'll finally ask some folks who might know.
Hey y'all, Dr Masters has a new blog up, come on over
This is what iam thinking and also this in in the new update, and posible (Read this )
If Dean does manage to catch up to the upper level low, the counter-clockwise circulation around the upper low will bring some south-to-north winds over Dean that would steer it on a more northerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.
i agree with this quote!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Maybe Jamaica will get the 50 or 75 miles that is needs

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_sche ma=PORTAL
VegasRain,

That strike probability map u showed earlier was cool. Looks enough like the hurricane and tropical storm probability maps the NHC does to be easy to follow, too.

Only problem is that people would say, "gee, there's only a 10% probability that it will come my way" and stop watching for advisories . . .
any thoughts on impact on Cayman? Sitting waiting, Ivan damage was as much water related as wind, any thoughts on possible surge levels.
Talking about cones of probability, I note that most of the area affected by Erin earlier this week is now in the 5-day cone of probability.

The best advice to anyone living along the western GOM coast is to do your preps and watch for further information. In fact, even though there is a high over the Bahamas, I'm still keeping my eye open, just in case.

I also think about the D & E storms from 2005. Dennis was pretty strong, went one way into the GOM; Emily was stronger, went another way. Both passed through much the same part of the Caribbean that Dean is transversing right now. So it's not like preparing for Dean even if he doesn't come your way is going to hurt much.
For people interested in the potential "danger zone", a look at the Mariners' 1-2-3 map might be more informative. Currently it's showing that all of Cuba, the southwestern edge of the Bahamas island chain, and Florida's Keys and Everglades are likely to experience some effects from the storm, even on its current track. (Basically this map is designed to show boaters where NOT to go . . .)
heh all do u all remmeber gean in 2005 when the models had that storm going east away from florida , and what do u think happened. jean made a complety 360 degree turn west right back to florida east coast.
that models for you.
Also check out the tropical storm force probabilities for the next 120 hours.



I think anybody within the shaded area (i.e. not land or water coloured) should be monitoring Dean closely.
baha i agree with u!!!!!!!!!
1833. AndyN
Check out this link and see if Dean and the ULL are on a collision course or will the ULL outrun Dean? Link
1834. theBlur
BahaHurican,

It is never a bad idea to be prepared for a storm if you live near the water!
Posted By: rodrigo0 at 8:30 PM EDT on August 18, 2007.

whirlwind --- There are in fact thousands of white asses in Cancun... but no way... Katrina kills dozens because wind efects in several states... and Wilma, in Mexico only killed 8 people and was worst than Katrina...


People in Cancun and Cozumel got out of the way of the storm. People in the US didn't.

I saw somebody earlier posting "thousands will die" in JA, but I have a feeling people will survive. Their houses may not, but hopefully most people in JA will have enough sense to get out of the way of the worst storm surge and flash flooding.
Posted By: whirlwind at 8:41 PM EDT on August 18, 2007. (hide)
where the racism? didnt see anything here.....
plus we are paying for your internet connection and healthcare....

let the show go on...


Dear worldwind,

U are not paying for anything for me (and I doubt u are paying for any of the other Wunderground users, unless they are your family members.)
Duly minused and reported.

Posted By: PBG00 at 12:55 AM GMT on August 19, 2007.

Tomorrow is another day..and it will be more of the same..Have fun. To all those in Deans immediate path, stay safe.


All the "have fun" and "LOL" comments on this blog are odd. If not sick. Either this is a scientific blog about hurricane phenomena or is it a gambling ring about where its going to hit?

Place your bets do we take 3000 in Haiti or 2000 in Jamaica?
200 in Cancun or 110 in Houston?

ta ta - its going to hit me so Im going to bed! LOL

This is neither scientific nor compassionate. Do you think you are in a video game?


Is anyone else having problems with posts showing up on this blog? For the past 2 hrs only a few have made it to my browser.
I have just left the local Irish drinking establishment where we have karaoke on a Saturday night.

Popular songs were 'Cruel Summer', 'Rock You Like a Hurricane' and 'I Will Survive'.

You have to love the British/Caymanian sense of humour.

Bottom line in a hurricane is that no-one should die from the wind or rain - we found that out during Ivan.

The one or two days of the actual storm are nothing compared to the lack of power and water after together with the terrible heat, disease and looting.

I wish every island in the caribbean was as fortunate as us to be able to look after it's people during and after the storm to make sure there are minimum casualties.

I still find it amazing that on an island with nowhere to escape to and most of the land is just above sea level it is possible to maintain the safety of the populace as we do.

Goes to show what effort and a bit of money can do to lessen the effects of these systems.

I will be taking a video of the storm outside as long as possible without lashing myself to a palm tree and will upload to youtube and link for you guys as soon as the power comes back up.
I'm in Santo Domingo right now, just 1 km from the south shore. We had a couple of small rain showers, nothing worse than the typical squall. Right now it's dry, with light breezes-- just enough to make the palm trees flutter. WHERE'S DEAN? Photos and blogs maps show he's right here, right now.
Dr. Masters has a new blog up

See y'all there.