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Extreme Windstorm Xaver Poised to Batter Denmark and Germany

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:44 AM GMT on December 04, 2013

A developing extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic, dubbed "Xaver" by the Free University of Berlin, is predicted to "bomb" into a potent storm with winds near hurricane force that will bring damaging winds and storm tides to the coasts of Germany, the Netherlands, and Denmark on Thursday. By Thursday night, Xaver's center will cross southern Sweden, and damaging winds from the storm will sweep the coasts of Poland, Lithuania, and southern Sweden. The center of the low will pass over southern Norway, bringing strong northwest winds that will funnel down the North Sea. The European model predicts that at 18 UTC on Thursday, winds on the west coast of Denmark will be sustained near 58 mph (93 kph). Xaver will be accompanied by intense thunderstorms capable of mixing the stronger winds occurring aloft down to the surface, and wind damage may rival that of October's Extratropical Storm "Christian" (AKA the St. Jude storm), which bottomed out at 968 mb. Christian killed 18, and did $1.4 billion in damage. There is a smaller chance that the wind damage from Xaver will approach that of Windstorm Anatol, which hit Denmark, Southwest Sweden, and Northern Germany on December 3, 1999. Anatol had sustained winds of up to 91 mph (146 kph), killed 20 people, and injured over 800. Damage was $2.6 billion (1999 dollars) in Denmark, making it the costliest disaster in Danish history.


Figure 1. The European (ECMWF) model run performed at 12Z (7 am EST) on Tuesday, December 2, 2013, valid at 18Z (1 pm EST) Thursday, December 5, 2013, calls for winds in excess of 60 knots (69 mph) to affect the western coast of Denmark. The more recent 0Z Wednesday European model run has winds that are not quite as strong, about 5 mph less.

The predicted surface winds of Xaver will be similar to the ones the Netherlands experienced during the great February 1, 1953 North Sea storm that breached dikes in the Netherlands and England and killed over 2100 people. That storm bottomed out with a central pressure of 964 mb. Wednesday's 0Z European model run bottoms Xaver out at 964 mb, and the 12Z GFS is more intense, at 956 mb. However, the 1953 storm was much slower, and brought sustained winds in excess of 50 knots (57.5 mph) to the North Sea for more than 24 hours, allowing a huge storm surge in excess of 3 meters (10 feet) to pile up. In contrast, "Xaver" is expected to bring 50-knot winds to the North Sea for only about 9 hours, and the storm surge will not be as high as occurred in 1953. The maximum storm surge of Xaver will be in Germany and Denmark, farther to the east than occurred in the 1953 storm. The storm tide will be unusually high, since we are only two days past the new moon. Fortunately, the German coast is well protected by dikes, which are about 8 meters high, some even higher, and these dikes should be able to withstand Xaver's storm surge. The German weather service storm surge forecast made Wednesday morning called for a storm tide of 3 meters above average high tide in Cuxhaven, and 2.75 meters in Bremerhaven, during the high tide cycle early Friday morning.


Video 1. Winds from Windstorm "Christian" topple a tree that nearly kills a cyclist in the Netherlands on October 28, 2013.

German storm surge history
The deadliest flood of the last hundred years in Germany was the "North Sea flood" in 1962 (16/17 February), where many dikes broke and 340 people were killed. In the Bremerhaven area, the dikes from the 1840s were just able to withstand the storm surge but were heavily damaged. Bremerhaven had installed storm surge gates at the mouth of the river Geeste in summer 1961 as a reaction to the 1953 flood in the Netherlands. That small-scale Deltaworks saved the city. After this catastrophe, the dikes along the German coast were strengthened. Just in time, as the highest storm surge of at least the last hundred years occurred in January 1976. In Hamburg, the 1976 flood was 4.35 meters (14.3') above average high tide, which is 6.45 meters (21.2') above mean sea level. This is 75 cm higher than the storm surge of 1962, but the dikes were strong and high enough in 1976 to withstand the flood. Thanks go to Dr. Michael Theusner of the German climate museum Klimahaus for these stats.


Video 2. The great North Sea storm of February 1, 1953.

Links
24-hour storm surge forecasts and actual water levels for the North Sea coast
Tide chart for Bremerhaven, Germany. The highest storm tide will occur at high tide at 1:59 UTC (2:59 CET) on Friday morning.
German weather forum
Wikipedia's list of great European windstorms.
The Future of Intense Winter Storms, my 2010 blog post on climate change and winter storms (updated in early 2013.)

Jeff Masters

Winter Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 500. PalmBeachWeather:
Yes...It be warm


We won't have to worry about those weak FPL transformers for the next couple of weeks.
Quoting 495. iTrollTheTrolls:

Where are you finding the NHC percentages? I can never find them after the season ends


I was just going to tell you where but you found it. Dakster I think that 20% is about right. If I was going to be super-precise I'd make it a little lower in the upper teens.
Quoting 495. iTrollTheTrolls:

Where are you finding the NHC percentages? I can never find them after the season ends
Firstly(is that a word?) I would change my name troll
Quoting 497. PedleyCA:


Not sure why rain is showing on this one. Nothing in the local forecast for that. currently 59.8F.


Pretty cold
Most people across the nation/world think Southern California is always warm.
It's that darn Baywatch program.lol
I watched a show and the actors from Baywatch talked about how cold it was filming that show.
Quoting 501. Dakster:


We won't have to worry about those weak FPL transformers for the next couple of weeks.
Thank goodness I am out of that BS....
Quoting 501. Dakster:


We won't have to worry about those weak FPL transformers for the next couple of weeks.
Dak...Snappers had a great Thanksgiving meal for $15.... I was impressed. But with drinks the $15 meal was $137... They knew I was coming
507. VR46L
Quoting 498. DFWdad:
Local Channel 8 met is talking about a McFarland Signature setting up. Anybody else talking about that?

"The issue, says McCauley, is a full-blown McFarland Signature that’s attempting to develop across the United States. This event is a flow pattern that looks a backwards “S” in the upper-level winds that dislodges large swaths of arctic air and “sends them hurtling down into Texas.”

“This will cause an extended cold snap, which will have us below freezing for much (but not all) of the time from Thursday night through Tuesday of next week,” says McCauley."

Freezing temperatures, ice increasingly likely during Winter Storm Warning


I mentioned it , a few hours ago but got little response (one person acknowledged it I think ...

I guess some thought I must have been doing a McTavish...
Quoting 504. Sfloridacat5:


Pretty cold
Most people across the nation/world think Southern California is always warm.
It's that darn Baywatch program.lol
I watched a show and the actors from Baywatch talked about how cold it was filming that show.
David Hassellhoff freaked out(sp)
I think 1900hurricane talked about a McFarland event too although not today.
Quoting 488. Dakster:


So far, other than the rain everyday. It has been a typical beginning of December in the 21st Century for me down here. I do remember the late 70's and into the 80's being a little colder by now as even in my youth my backyard, unheated, pool was too cold to go swimming in. I remember it distinctly as my birthday is at the end of november and I could never have a pool part at the house, unlike my friend whose birthday was at the end of October. I would go swimming today in my pool - if I was still that young energetic kid.

Nowadays I like my pool water the temp of bathwater.



If you want a fair analog, look at January 1974 which was very warm for the southeast U.S. and averaged normal in the midwest but that "average" was due to epic bitter cold the first half followed by exceptional warmth the second. THe epic cold pattern was similar to this one in the first two weeks of January.


FL warm, everyone else cold, sometimes happens. But sometimes
cold air drives all the way to Cuba whether the water around is warm or not and sometimes exceptional cold departures in FL are accompanied by unremarkable temperatures or even record warmth further north as happened in January 2010.

Quoting 498. DFWdad:
Local Channel 8 met is talking about a McFarland Signature setting up. Anybody else talking about that?

"The issue, says McCauley, is a full-blown McFarland Signature that%u2019s attempting to develop across the United States. This event is a flow pattern that looks a backwards %u201CS%u201D in the upper-level winds that dislodges large swaths of arctic air and %u201Csends them hurtling down into Texas.%u201D

%u201CThis will cause an extended cold snap, which will have us below freezing for much (but not all) of the time from Thursday night through Tuesday of next week,%u201D says McCauley."

Freezing temperatures, ice increasingly likely during Winter Storm Warning

It's certainly close. The models have made the longwave a little more progressive in the last run or two, which would give us slightly more of a glancing shot of the extremely cold air, but either way, it's going to be very cold, and it wouldn't take much for the models to put the DFW area back into the single digits again.
Quoting 504. Sfloridacat5:


Pretty cold
Most people across the nation/world think Southern California is always warm.
It's that darn Baywatch program.lol
I watched a show and the actors from Baywatch talked about how cold it was filming that show.


The temps are almost always cooler and the water temperature is very cool. 62F for the water....

I'm going to eat dinner and then drive out NW into the lumber plots in the NW part of the county. We are far from a big metro area and out to the NW there are no lights at all. Venus will be at its brightest this week and there is no bright moon. I want to find out if I can see Venus cast a shadow.
514. VR46L
Quoting 511. 1900hurricane:

It's certainly close.


I read that today good read , and the set up is there
Keywest average January water temp is 69 degrees
Pensacola average January water temp is 56 degrees
That's a decent spread (13 degrees).

But it is not uncommon for water temps to be in the 40s in the northern Gulf Coast during the winter.

Quoting 512. PedleyCA:


The temps are almost always cooler and the water temperature is very cool. 62F for the water....



Yeah, I try to tell people that.
I've surfed Southern California and Baja during the winter.
High surf advisory when I was there. Surfed some 10-15ft waves. Water was freezing, but I had a lot of fun.
I wore a 3 mm wetsuit with booties, but I was still cold.
National Weather Service New Orleans la
401 PM CST Wednesday Dec 4 2013

Short term...

unseasonably warm and muggy conditions to continue tonight through
Thursday night ahead of Arctic cold front. Dense sea fog likely to
develop once again later tonight over the cooler near shore waters
and advecting inland as a low stratus deck or fog bank...depending
on wind speeds. Overnight lows should remain in the middle 60s to
lower 70s...about 20-25 degrees warmer than normal overnight.

Long term...

models seem to have a pretty good grasp of the situation unfolding
Arctic air mass moving through the middle of the country. Leading
edge of shallow cold air moves through the forecast area Friday
but slows progress upon reaching the Gulf. Models in consensus in
developing a low pressure area along the front to impart large
scale isentropic lift over the area during the day Friday through
Sunday. The 12z GFS is the first run to hint at wintry
precipitation at the edge of the precipitation shield Tuesday
morning.
Will not indicate any at this time and continue to watch
model trends as the cold air will be undergoing some moderation
prior to that time. Beyond Tuesday...a light freeze may be noted
in interior sections for Wednesday morning then a slow warming
trend into latter part of next week.
Quoting 515. Sfloridacat5:
Keywest average January water temp is 69 degrees
Pensacola average January water temp is 56 degrees
That's a decent spread (13 degrees).

But it is not uncommon for water temps to be in the 40s in the northern Gulf Coast during the winter.



Cold outbreaks can cause rapid drops off the SW coast also. I remember a water temperature drop from 70 to 51 degrees in two days off of Fort Myers Beach sometime in the early 80s but don't remember the eyar.
That's really cold for that area. Being young (early 20s) of course
I swam in it but not for long.
Quoting 506. PalmBeachWeather:
Dak...Snappers had a great Thanksgiving meal for $15.... I was impressed. But with drinks the $15 meal was $137... They knew I was coming


Yeah they sure did. Glad I don't drink alcohol...

Quoting 504. Sfloridacat5:


Pretty cold
Most people across the nation/world think Southern California is always warm.
It's that darn Baywatch program.lol
I watched a show and the actors from Baywatch talked about how cold it was filming that show.


Wow. haven't seen Babewatch in a long time. Have no real reason to watch it again either. Suprised that is still affecting peoples idea of SoCal.
Quoting 518. georgevandenberghe:


Cold outbreaks can cause rapid drops off the SW coast also. I remember a water temperature drop from 70 to 51 degrees in two days off of Fort Myers Beach sometime in the early 80s but don't remember the eyar.
That's really cold for that area. Being young (early 20s) of course
I swam in it but not for long.


Too cold.
I've surfed 43 degree water on the Northern GOM and froze (3 mm wetsuit). My hands were blue when I got out.
The coldest I've surfed with no wetsuit is 64 degree water. It took me all day to warm back up when I finally got out of the water.
I drink and I enjoy it. At home with friends. Going out I drink unsweet tea. Paying restaurant prices for alcohol is ridiculous.
12z CMC showing ice for parts of NC-yes..its the CMC



12z GFS showing only rain at the same time frame



Quoting 519. Dakster:


Yeah they sure did. Glad I don't drink alcohol...




Wow. haven't seen Babewatch in a long time. Have no real reason to watch it again either. Suprised that is still affecting peoples idea of SoCal.


I've heard The Hoff is/was a big star over in Europe.
Baywatch and Nightrider were big hits.
How to protect your pipes..if your pipes burst during this cold blast, the plumber is going to have a field day with your wallet



Disconnect and drain garden hoses when they are not being used.

Wrap exposed irrigation pipes with pipe insulation, insulated "faucet socks," an old towel, or heat or duct tape. These products can be found at your neighborhood building supply store.

Insulate your irrigation backflow device by draping a towel over it and covering it with a bucket or other protective cover that touches the ground. Do not cover pipes completely to allow some air flow around them (air flow is necessary for the device to function properly).

Set your thermostat to at least 55 degrees when you're away to protect indoor pipes and houseplants. Do not turn your heat off completely.

Turn off the water valves to your washing machine to avoid flooding that could result from burst hoses.

You do not need to leave interior or exterior faucets and pipes dripping. Valley temperatures generally don't drop low enough for a long enough period of time to warrant it.

In the case of a broken pipe, locate your water shut-off valve. Know how to turn off your irrigation backflow device as well. Follow the instructions below to turn off your water, so you can minimize damage from leaks or burst water lines.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 PM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS ARCTIC AIR INVADES THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES,
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THIS FRIGID AIRMASS PLUNGING SOUTH INTO
TEXAS BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEAST, AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. IN OTHER WORDS, THIS AIRMASS
WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER. SO WHILE MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE DEALING WITH WINTER`S WRATH,
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WARM...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH LOWS AROUND 70F EAST COAST TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE. DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES ARE NEGLIGIBLE AS DEEP
LAYERED MEAN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED.
527. VR46L
Quoting 524. Sfloridacat5:


I've heard The Hoff is/was a big star over in Europe.
Baywatch and Nightrider were big hits.


kinda back in the 80 and 90 in Ireland and UK but I heard he was a mega star number one singles and such in Germany
Quoting 468. iTrollTheTrolls:
...wouldn't it be obvious that it would have to get warmer than average when that average includes much of the 1300-1900 Little Ice Age?

Climate responds to the energy balance in place for the planet. The "Little Ice Age" is a common name applied to a period when the energy balance favored cooler global temperatures, at least partly due to reduced solar activity. The energy balance of today is different than the energy balance during the LIA; that energy balance favors a warmer climate that will continue to warm due an un-ending imbalance from an enhanced greenhouse effect.

An anomaly baseline period including (or not including) a warmer/cooler period has no bearing on the trend over that period. It's not "obvious" because it isn't accurate.
Quoting 518. georgevandenberghe:


Cold outbreaks can cause rapid drops off the SW coast also. I remember a water temperature drop from 70 to 51 degrees in two days off of Fort Myers Beach sometime in the early 80s but don't remember the eyar.
That's really cold for that area. Being young (early 20s) of course
I swam in it but not for long.


current from remote sensing systems

530. VR46L
Lecky still on :)

I'm burned. 4 straight hours of studying. Taking a hour break, do it again for 2 more hours, and go get some "midnight breakfast".
Quoting 530. VR46L:
Lecky still on :)



Very dangerous storm for Northern Europe ..
A big Ice event is going about to begin in Texas.
Starting tomorrow when the arctic front hits around noon, rain will switch over to wintry mix, and persist through Friday and Saturday with Ice developing on the road ways.
534. VR46L
Quoting 532. whitewabit:


Very dangerous storm for Northern Europe ..


Yeah We are expecting upto 120 km winds tonight. I do live a quarter of a mile from the Atlantic but thankfully well above Sea level !
Quoting 430. ncstorm:


Nea, you were here last year..dont act brand new...a LOT of people here took that mayan calendar seriously..

Not on this blog. You must be gullible.
Rescuers are combing the Idaho wilderness by land and air today to search for a private plane believed to be carrying a Silicon Valley CEO and his family. The plane disappeared from radar over the weekend.
Quoting 539. Skyepony:
Rescuers are combing the Idaho wilderness by land and air today to search for a private plane believed to be carrying a Silicon Valley CEO and his family. The plane disappeared from radar over the weekend.
that's a long time to be in the woods
5 days tomorrow
Quoting 531. Bluestorm5:
I'm burned. 4 straight hours of studying. Taking a hour break, do it again for 2 more hours, and go get some "midnight breakfast".
Hey man I feel the same way, it is all for a good cause, you will see. I had tests back to back to back this week, but thankfully for me I only have 1 Final. Enjoy the breakfast, ours is tomorrow on the house. :)
Quoting 542. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Keep..turn dem fans around
Quoting 533. TylerStanfield:
A big Ice event is going about to begin in Texas.
Starting tomorrow when the arctic front hits around noon, rain will switch over to wintry mix, and persist through Friday and Saturday with Ice developing on the road ways.
Stay safe on those roadways, HurricaneDean07. I want you back on here posting in a couple days time.
Apparently so-called Xaver does not currently exist as a defined surface feature.



You can see the forecast development here.
My buddy and I have finished our work on the List of United States tornado emergencies page. Though it has been double-checked for errors, if we happened to miss a few please let me know (or fix it yourself, Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia after all :)).
Quoting 531. Bluestorm5:
I'm burned. 4 straight hours of studying. Taking a hour break, do it again for 2 more hours, and go get some "midnight breakfast".
There is great power in the brain. Like a muscle, the more you work and refine it, the stronger and more improved it becomes..
Today was too warm for December... reached 70 degrees I think. SMH.
Several snow threats around here over the next couple of days.

Friday night: Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 11pm. Low around 28. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Sunday night:
Snow and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 70%
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:
My buddy and I have finished our work on the List of United States tornado emergencies page. Though it has been double-checked for errors, if we happened to miss a few please let me know (or fix it yourself, Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia after all :)).


You got it all from 4/16/11 it looks like.
Quoting 543. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hey man I feel the same way, it is all for a good cause, you will see. I had tests back to back to back this week, but thankfully for me I only have 1 Final. Enjoy the breakfast, ours is tomorrow on the house. :)
I'm having a very light finals. Only three exams (one a day Thurs, Friday, and Monday). Very manageable schedule :)
Quoting 544. hydrus:
Keep..turn dem fans around
them fans do what they want its either on or off that's it
Never realized how fun it was to play around with NMAP. This was a system off the East Coast a few days ago, I decided to draw the fronts.



This IR image is one of my favorites.

RAP 21Z RUN HR 18 SIM RAD/SFC TEMPS


Cody, get your butt in gear and hit up the TCRs. I'm already making good headway with Karen's. :)
Convection is rather bare with Invest 90L. Just goes to show you how cold the waters are up here and the stable airmass.

Experimental High Resolution 10 km. FIM-95...here comes the Polar Express.



Here is actual skin temperatures.



And precipitable water.

Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
them fans do what they want its either on or off that's it
Sounds like a Red Sox game..:)
Hi, again. Late in the night I try to catch up with the news on our dear "Xaver". And for all who might be worried about me: No, I wasn't in office until now (1 a.m. in Germany), but had to address some private obligations this evening too, lol.

Thanks, VR and others, for posting some informations!

Track of Xaver according to German weather service. Saved image (Source).


Warning map from private servive Meteomedia (saved image, source):



As much as I can see in a hurry, northern Germany should be (partially) shut down tomorrow: no school, no university and a lot of security measures concerning traffic, levees and more.

I'll now continue looking for news ...
Extreme cold all the way down to Arkansas.

Hamburg Girds for Storm Tides as Xaver Approaches Landfall
Bloombergs, by Nicholas Brautlecht - Dec 5, 2013 12:01 AM GMT+0100

The port of Hamburg, Germany’s main export hub, is bracing for floods that may disrupt shipping and air traffic when storm fronts sweeping across the North Atlantic and North Sea reach landfall later today.

A low pressure system dubbed Xaver may reach hurricane force with wind speeds of as much as 150 kilometers (93 miles) an hour as it traverses southern parts of the North Sea, according to the German Weather Service. Xaver may trigger as many as four storm tides in coastal areas and in Hamburg, according to the Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency BSH.

BP Plc, ConocoPhilips and Talisman Sinopec Energy UK Ltd. evacuated more than 350 workers from North Sea oil platforms earlier in the week as a precautionary measure. As Hamburg prepared to close some of its flood gates ahead of the storm, fire services said they expect the area around the fish market, which attracts tens of thousands of visitors every week, to succumb to flooding. Danish National rail operator DSB said it’s canceling some train services to pre-empt damage and make post-storm repairs easier.

“We expect the highest flood on Friday morning, with the water rising 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) above the medium-high tide level in Hamburg,” said Sylvin Mueller-Navarra, a spokesman for BSH.

Ships that are more than 330 meters long are not permitted to enter the port when winds get too strong, Sinje Pangritz, a spokeswoman for Hamburg Port Authority, said. The authority is closely monitoring the situation and is ready to stop vessels entering the Elbe estuary should the situation arise, she said. ...


Whole article see link above.
Accuweather's forecast for Monday morning for Little Rock, Arkansas.

Lo 12°
RealFeel® 6°
Precipitation 24%
Night

NESW
N 6 mph
Gusts: 9 mph
Mainly clear and very cold with the temperature approaching the record low of 8 set in 1917
Fayetteville, Arkansas...gonna need a Parka if you live up that way. Hydrus, I sure hope you are prepared man.

Lo 0°
RealFeel® -4°
Precipitation 16%
Night

NESW
NNE 5 mph
Gusts: 8 mph
Clear and very cold with the temperature breaking the record of 9 set in 2009

Xaver is already in sight (and over our VR who should stay safe, please).


Airmass over Europe a bit earlier (saved image).


Latest weather map (Austrian weather service).

Estofex.org
(which won't be in charge for wind forecast but just for thunderstorms and stuff alike):


SYNOPSIS

Continuing height falls across central and eastern Europe on the one hand and increasing geopotential across the northern Atlantic result in a west-north-westerly flow over most of Europe on Thursday morning. A frontal wave that was located to the south of Iceland on Wednesday 18Z will move south-east and is expected over southern Norway on Thursday, 12Z. Located in a favourably coupled jet streak position, rapid intensification is forecast by latest models and the centre pressure will drop by 40 hPa within 24 hours. A strong winter storm is therefore expected to affect an area from the northern British Isles to the southern Baltic Sea region. Intense cold air advection will be dominant in the wake of the storm. Across southern Europe, subsidence is expected through-out the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

British Isles, North Sea, southern Scandinavia, Germany, Poland, and surroundings

In the morning hours, the North Sea low will move into southern Norway. Its cold front will cross most of the British Isles and the North Sea. Ahead of the cold front, a narrow tongue of boundary-layer moisture with 0-1 km mixing ratio around 5 g/kg will spread from the British Isles to southern Scandinavia. Given moist-adiabatic lapse rates and rather warm sea surface temperatures, weak instability is forecast ahead of the cold front, allowing for a narrow cold frontal rain band with embedded shallow convection. The contribution of deep moist convection to the wind gust occurrence is expected to be weak to the south of the jet core.

From the jet maximum northward, strong DCVA will lead to QG lift and the low-level saturated air mass will become deeper. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front from Scotland to the central North Sea until noon. Given very strong vertical wind shear, convection will organize and shallow multicells with linear segments are expected. Especially in the northern portions, rapid movement of these linear segments will result in an increasing surface wind gust threat that warrants a level 2.

In the afternoon, most prominent convective development is expected along the cold front. Especially from Denmark to the southern Baltic Sea, thunderstorms are forecast given the strong DCVA at the cyclonically sheared flank of the mid-level 50 m/s jet streak. A quasi-linear mesoscale convective system capable of producing high or extremely high winds is not ruled out if this scenario will become true.

Together with the strongest DCVA, the convective activity will spread south-east in the evening, where the main limiting factor is the dry boundary layer. The mostly occluded warm sector will only allow for a mixing ratio up to 4 g/kg. So it is questionable if cold pools will develop due to the lack of intense convective precipitation. A maintaining quasi-linear convective system becomes unlikely for this reason.

Current thinking is that a broken line of storms is the most likely scenario over eastern Germany and Poland. Local downdrafts will increase the wind gust threat especially in association with persistent multicells that may evolve small but rapidly moving cold pools. Wind gusts in excess of 33 m/s are forecast with this convection along the cold front, and a level 2 is issued. The threat will spread across eastern Germany into Poland during the evening hours. Although tornadoes are not ruled out, the weak low-level buoyancy is expected to limit the potential strongly.

Together with the strongest DCVA, the cold frontal convection is forecast to spread into the western Ukraine at the end of the period. Although moisture will further decrease, showers capable of producing severe wind gusts are still not ruled out.

In the wake of the cold front, strong cold air advection is expected. The warm sea surface of the North Sea will allow for weak CAPE in the cold air mass. Especially in the range of short-wave troughs travelling south-east, showers and thunderstorms are possible, but will likely be isolated due to the unfavourable QG situation. The convective downdrafts are not forecast to enhance the severe wind gust strength significantly given strong turbulent mixing in the lower levels even without convection.

Quoting 549. Bluestorm5:
Today was too warm for December... reached 70 degrees I think. SMH.


We tied the record high of 80 here in Charleston. No complaints here, thats why we moved south.
Invest 90L




(BTW, it's my birthday today)
Quoting 568. FunnelVortex:
Invest 90L




(BTW, it's my birthday today)
well I hope you have had a good day happy birthday to ya

90l looks to be spinning down

WRF forecast winds tomorrow at noon local time (in knots).

This is what inland flooding would be, if we hadn't our strong levees:



Source.

Hurricane-strength storm threatens north Germany
The Local, published: 04 Dec 2013 12:32 GMT 01:00
Quoting 567. Chucktown:


We tied the record high of 80 here in Charleston. No complaints here, thats why we moved south.
one more day tomorrow and Friday as well before cool down enjoy
Quoting 570. barbamz:

WRF forecast winds tomorrow at noon local time (in knots).
strong system for sure
Quoting 569. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well I hope you have had a good day happy birthday to ya

90l looks to be spinning down


Thank you.

And yeah, I agree with that.
Quoting 568. FunnelVortex:
Invest 90L




(BTW, it's my birthday today)


Happy Birthday!!
Quoting 539. Skyepony:
Rescuers are combing the Idaho wilderness by land and air today to search for a private plane believed to be carrying a Silicon Valley CEO and his family. The plane disappeared from radar over the weekend.


Wow. They still haven't found them... Yikes. I was hoping they would get found alive. Just goes to show that even in this day and age you still need to be prepared to spend days in the wilderness should you crash. I hear that the pilot and his family are survivalists so there is a plus in that column.
Watch this become Nestor and randomly explode into a major hurricane just because hurricane season is technically over.

Very interested how the Dynamic Tropopause evolves wit Xavier. I imagine the low theta field (indicative of high PV/tropopause folding) will begin driving into the cyclone, initiating bombgenesis.

Quoting 571. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
one more day tomorrow and Friday as well before cool down enjoy


Keeper maybe you can put your fans on full blast and get some of that cold down here into FL as temps are starting to get hot again down here infact we may close in on 90 this weekend according to the Euro model.

Quoting 574. StormTrackerScott:


Happy Birthday!!


Thank you.
Maybe 75 next Wednesday which still above average?

maybe a ice storm coming soon
GFS was showing a system in the NW Caribbean come mid December. Now wouldn't that be strange.

NAVGEM 144hrs


Quoting 581. hurricanes2018:
maybe a ice storm coming soon
Maybe an Icicle or two...
Quoting 462. VAbeachhurricanes:
Jeeeeez

I'm not believing that for the D.C area...44 degrees is not arctic air.It will be close to 70 degrees tomorrow.Spring part two is in full swing.The solider's have already fired the cannons..the battle on spring part two has begun!.
Quoting 584. washingtonian115:
I'm not believing that for the D.C area...44 degrees is not arctic air.It will be close to 70 degrees tomorrow.Spring part two is in full swing.The solider's have already fired the cannons..the battle on spring part two has begun!.


LOL. Look at this washi.

Lows near 20 for DC


2 to 3" of snow for your area in 4 days.
5" to 8" of snow mixed with ice for DC & Baltimore. This is no joke Washi so take precautions.

Snow all the way down to Jackson, Mississippi.

Quoting 584. washingtonian115:
I'm not believing that for the D.C area...44 degrees is not arctic air.It will be close to 70 degrees tomorrow.Spring part two is in full swing.The solider's have already fired the cannons..the battle on spring part two has begun!.


I have a deep freezer if you need to cool off.
Quoting 588. Dakster:


I have a deep freezer if you need to cool off.


Mother Nature's "Deep Freezer" is heading her way just give it time.

Quoting 584. washingtonian115:
I'm not believing that for the D.C area...44 degrees is not arctic air.It will be close to 70 degrees tomorrow.Spring part two is in full swing.The solider's have already fired the cannons..the battle on spring part two has begun!.


The cold air is shallow and will have trouble getting over the mountains but I think we will get into it by Saturday morning. Saturday night the precip comes back and the cold air will get dammed up against the Appalachians at low levels while warming comes in aloft. This will lead to ice pellets or freezing rain but with a storm track to the west we will eventually scour out the cold air on sunday night and be milder monday as forecasters are saying. So yeah I buy it though I think the cold air will be a little delayed Friday night. I'm not happy; my wife flies back in Sunday night from MSY (I hope!) and I have driving to kids events Sunday through this stuff. Teens may get a chance to practice winter wx driving which I want to get crossed off their list before they get licensed.

Next week another seasonably cold arctic blast. Not like 1983 :-)
Surf temps believe it or not are still in the low to mid 70's off the coast of E C FL. Still warm enough to swim or surf without a wet suit.

Quoting 588. Dakster:


I have a deep freezer if you need to cool off.
No thanks.I have one in the back.I can't fit in it.But I do stick my head in there once in a while during summer.
Good night guys. All fellow Germans - weather geeks, journalists etc. - obviously are in bed, awaiting tomorrow's action with Xaver. And I have to join them now in la-la-land. See you tomorrow evening again, I hope. Then we'll know for sure about the strength of Xaver (without an i in German, btw, lol). In the mid of Germany near Frankfurt, where I live, it shouldn't be very bad; so I'm relaxed in respect of my own safety. All the best; hope your own weather isn't too severe.


(Saved image). Source for updates.


Forecast for noon local time, December 5. Source.


Gale force winds this (December 5) afternoon. Source German weather service DWD.


Source.
Quoting 592. washingtonian115:
No thanks.I have one in the back.I can't fit in it.But I do stick my head in there once in a while during summer.


Hang in there, the folks here say you are gonna get your cold front soon enough.
Floridians gloating in their 80s days and 60s nights should remember the 1962 freeze Dec 12, only a week later than this one.
Quoting 558. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Convection is rather bare with Invest 90L. Just goes to show you how cold the waters are up here and the stable airmass.




Cold water also = dry air, especially at the surface. A strong jet stream is the only way to transport deep moisture across cold water, even then surface instability is always going to lack unless there is very cold air aloft, but either way, that's why water temps like such aren't exactly conducive for tropical cyclones.


Quoting 595. georgevandenberghe:
Floridians gloating in their 80s days and 60s nights should remember the 1962 freeze Dec 12, only a week later than this one.


Bring it... But even then shortly after the higher temps returned.
Bombogenesis is underway.



Six hours ago.



Bombogenesis initial stage.



Most resent sat image.



Bombogenesis stage one.

And this is what we have to look forward to:



Heard Grothar made a rare appearance today...In Whoville 20 days :)


Quoting 598. 1900hurricane:
Bombogenesis is underway.


Thanks a lot! Please continue to post updates and explanations of what is going on in these clouds, lol. I'll look at it this sometime this evening, lol ... But now good night for good.
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:
My buddy and I have finished our work on the List of United States tornado emergencies page. Though it has been double-checked for errors, if we happened to miss a few please let me know (or fix it yourself, Wikipedia is a free encyclopedia after all :)).

I would be interested to see a summary table of EF/F-scale ratings. Maybe a table from a tornado outbreak could be used as a template.

I am not sure of the source or if it was from a technical paper, but I heard in a warning training course that roughly 50% of tornado emergencies do not verify; that is, the tornado doesn't directly impact the town or city mentioned. That would be another interesting thing to summarize.
._.

First day/night without rain in a long time!
Portions of southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas, and southwestern Arkansas have been upgraded to an Ice Storm Warning.

[Lil' Wayne]
Now now now now now
After you back it up, then stop
Then wha-wha-what, drop drop it like it's hot
Now after you back it up, then stop
Now, wha-wha-wha-what drop it like it's hot
Now drop it like it's hot, drop drop it like it's hot
C-M-B make you drop it like it's hot
Drop it like it's hot, drop drop it like it's hot
Drop it like it's hot, drop drop it like it's hot
Ha

Class Of 1999 fools! Link
One of the important parts of bombogenesis is that the frontal wave and most of its components have to be moving parallel with the 500 mb contours (and thermal gradient), as opposed to more traditional cyclogenesis. That's definitely the case here.



606. txjac
Quoting 568. FunnelVortex:
Invest 90L




(BTW, it's my birthday today)


Happy Birthday! Hope your day has been awesome.
Washi, just remember:

.
Can't believe X-Mas is only three weeks away!

If there is a sting jet at the tip of the dry intrusion (that's what caused most of the damage with Christian), northern Scotland is about to get raked.

Quoting 554. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Never realized how fun it was to play around with NMAP. This was a system off the East Coast a few days ago, I decided to draw the fronts.



This IR image is one of my favorites.



What is NMAP?
Just did a quick Google search, and a bunch of security system websites came up.
Quoting 609. GeoffreyWPB:
Can't believe X-Mas is only three weeks away!



When I stepped outside today at good ole 28N latitude I couldn't either.
Quoting 611. HurrikanEB:


What is NMAP?
Just did a quick Google search, and a bunch of security system websites came up.
It's actually NMAP2.
My cousin in western Scotland, just south of Glasgow, just whatapp messaged me and told me the coal mine where he works is shutting down for the next 2 days, Thursday and Friday due to this system.
Quoting 609. GeoffreyWPB:
Can't believe X-Mas is only three weeks away!



You mean Christmas?
Quoting 580. StormTrackerScott:
Maybe 75 next Wednesday which still above average?



Perfect golfing weather:)
Saw this earlier and spent a good minute laughing.

Quoting 567. Chucktown:


We tied the record high of 80 here in Charleston. No complaints here, thats why we moved south.
That sounds like a relaxing day over there in my hometown. It's still weird it's 70 degrees now after bottoming out at 10 degrees two weeks ago. Typical NC weather...
WxRisk of Virginia had been calling for massive ice storm in western Virginia and Maryland for 4 days now, while other folks didn't jump in until today. WxRisk is the most impressive meteorologist when it comes to winter weather I ever know, but his downside is that he's very rude :\
3:15 am here in North Wales, the winds are picking up as Xaver is approaching the UK. Wind gusts have ramped up from 37 mph to 48 mph at the nearest weather station in the last two hours. It's going to get worse during the day and then calm down in the evening.

I'm off to bed now, see you tomorrow. I'll pop in with a brief update how we fared during this storm.
ast updated: 5/12 at 00:10 hrs

Scottish rail is taking this system very serious.

This is a precaution by Network Rail Scotland as a result of the severe winds and storms forecast for this morning – with wind speeds of up to 95mph expected.

As a result, a number of services will not run (see list below). Please note there may be alternative trains via a different route.
West Highland lines (Glasgow - Fort William/Mallaig/Oban)
Elgin - Inverurie
Inverness - Kyle of Lochalsh/Wick
Edinburgh - Perth via Kirkcaldy (still running directly)
Girvan - Stranraer
Ardrossan South Beach - Ardrossan Harbour
Ayr - Kilmarnock
Glasgow Central - Paisley Canal
Glasgow Central - Whifflet
Motherwell - Cumbernauld
Cathcart Circle via Maxwell Park
Dalmuir - Motherwell / Lanark via Bellshill (still running directly)
Dalmuir - Larkhall via Hamilton
Motherwell / Edinburgh - Milngavie
Bellgrove - Springburn
Glasgow Queen Street - Anniesland
Glasgow Queen street - Stirling via Croy (still running directly)
Glasgow Central - Edinburgh via Shotts / Carstairs
Cumbernauld - Falkirk Grahamston
Edinburgh - Dunbar

No services until at least 16:00 hrs:
Glasgow Central - Ayr / Gourock/Largs/Wemyss Bay
Dalmuir - Balloch / Helensburgh
For timetable information for trains that ARE running (albeit with a reduced service), click here.

The Helensburgh - Edinburgh via Airdrie and Bathgate timetable is here.


No services will run before 07:00 on 5 December.

We are working with Network Rail to agree when we can safely resume the normal timetable. This decision will be continually reviewed by the industry as the weather conditions are assessed.

However, due to the extent of the restrictions, we are advising customers to consider whether their journey is essential.
TRMM caught 33W. Click pic for small quicktime movie.
623. beell
.
Severe weather warning from Transport Scotland

Displays from: 04/12/2013 21:24 To: 05/12/2013 16:00

Wind and flood disruption expected

The public across Scotland are tonight being warned of potential disruption over the next 24-36 hours due to severe winter gales and the potential of flooding on east and west coasts.

The Met Office have issued an Amber ‘Be Prepared’ warning covering most parts of Scotland, effective from 0200 hours until 1600 hours on Thursday, with the worst of the impacts expected in the period up to mid-day, with wind speeds likely to exceed 80mph in some places.

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) have also issued a number of Flood Alerts and Warnings, with a focus on potential coastal flooding on east and west coasts through Thursday and into Friday.

The Scottish Government’s Resilience operation has been activated to liaise with authorities and organisations across the country and to co-ordinate any activity as required. Ministers are being kept fully briefed on developments.

The forecast conditions are already having an impact on transport and travel for Thursday morning.

Police Scotland have tonight advised drivers that from early tomorrow morning, and throughout the rush-hour period (0700-0900 hours), the conditions for road travel are likely to be extremely poor and there is a high risk of disruption for road journeys across Scotland, particularly in the west.

Police have warned drivers that if they do travel, they are likely to experience significant delays due to high winds and driving rain creating surface water and an increased risk of flash flooding on many roads.

Transport Scotland, whose Multi-Agency Control Centre will be operating overnight, have said that the forecast windspeeds could have a particular impact on Scotland’s major bridges, which may result in them being closed to traffic for periods when the highest gusts are experienced in the run up to and during the morning peak period.

Network Rail, who will have hundreds of engineers out across the network ready to react to problems and clear fallen trees, have tonight told commuters that service levels and speeds will being reduced as a safety precaution when winds are at their peak. Passengers should check before they travel, as some routes and stations will not be served tomorrow until the worst of the gale force winds have passed.

Ferry operator Caledonian MacBrayne have said that the forecast is looking particularly severe for the morning and are advising all ferry travellers to take this into account when planning journeys in the next few days.

Air passengers are advised to check with airports and airlines before travelling.

Power companies are also monitoring the forecasts carefully and have engineers ready to take action across the country to deal with any power line issues or general supply disruption.

Local Authorities across the country have in place their usual arrangements for dealing with severe weather, working with relevant partners.

Scottish Government Transport Minister Keith Brown said tonight: “The Scottish Government and Transport Scotland are working closely with transport operators, the Met office, Police Scotland, SEPA and many other agencies and organisations to make sure that the most useful and up to date information is given to those who need it most. We have held a number of meetings with key partners already today and both the Scottish Government Resilience Room (SGoRR) and Transport Scotland’s multi-agency response team (MART) will be operational from tonight.

“I would urge the travelling public to consider the conditions before they set-off on their journeys. Indications are that bridges across the country will be affected by the strong winds and closures are expected during the morning peak period. People should listen to radio reports or visit the Traffic Scotland website or twitter feed, and carefully consider police advice. Trains and ferries will also be disrupted and operator websites will have the latest information.”

OTHER QUOTES

Superintendent Iain Murray, Head of Police Scotland’s Road Policing said: "Drivers are advised to plan their journeys before setting out in the morning by checking media and public information sites for early indications of road closures and other incidents on the network. High winds and driving rain will make driving conditions difficult, particularly on open roads and over bridges. If you must travel during rush hour, allow plenty of time for your journey and drive with care to the road conditions using dipped headlights and keeping a safe braking distance from the vehicles travelling ahead of you. Additional police road patrols will be on the network across Scotland and if you do break down or need police assistance, call our national non-emergency number 101."

David Dickson, Network Rail area director for the west of Scotland, said: “We will be monitoring conditions on the ground closely throughout the night and into the morning. We have teams in place across the country to react quickly to any damage caused by the weather and will keep as much of the network open as is possible. However, the extreme nature of the conditions, and the potential impact they can have on our infrastructure, means that speed restrictions and other measures are necessary in the interests of safety. We are working closely with the train operators and other industry partners to do everything we can to reduce disruption, while also operating a safe network for passengers.”

A spokesman for ferry operator Caledonian MacBrayne said: “We have had a very stormy start to the winter with many services affected by high winds in the last few weeks. The forecast for Thursday morning is looking particularly severe and we would advise ferry travellers to take this into account when planning journeys in the next few days. We are grateful for the patience and understanding of all our customers at this time.”

Graeme Forrester, Senior Met Office Advisor, said: “We are working closely with emergency responders in Scotland, including our partners within Scottish Government and Transport Scotland, to ensure that everyone can prepare for the expected severe weather. We currently have an advisor sitting within the Control Centre at South Queensferry who is able to give up-to-date advice to the team in order to keep Scotland’s roads as clear and as safe as possible during this relatively short-lived period of severe weather. The worst of the conditions are forecast in the Highlands and northern Scotland with winds of up to 80mph possible. However, parts of the central belt will also be affected by some very strong winds during Thursday morning's rush hour period."

Marc Becker, Hydrology Duty Manager for the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) said: “Heavy rain will cross the country early on Thursday accompanied by gale or severe gale force westerly winds. The gale force winds will become north-westerly during Thursday evening before easing on Friday. A combination of high tides and storm surge will result in a risk of flooding in some coastal communities along the Firth of Forth, Fife, East Lothian and Scottish Borders coast during Thursday afternoon. There may also be wave and spray overtopping across North West Scotland, the Western Isles, Orkney and along the west coast (as far south as Oban) during the early part of Thursday morning which could affect coastal properties and roads. SEPA will continue to monitor the situation and would encourage the public to check the SEPA website for active flood alerts or call SEPA's Floodline on 0845 988 1188, for the most up to date information on their area."
Quoting 586. StormTrackerScott:
5" to 8" of snow mixed with ice for DC & Baltimore. This is no joke Washi so take precautions.


Bring it on! :)
Thursday jet stream


This was Tuesday's jet stream
Models are trending colder in Mid-Atlantic... this mean Rain/Ice/Snow line will shift southward. 0z GFS got Asheville back under minor ice storm, but it won't be as bad as Virginia for sure.

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Hong Kong Central Roadside Pollution Surges to Toxic Levels

China Doubles Pace of Adding Renwables Amid Pollution Cut

The paper industry and climate change: Roll on the green revolution


Leg bone gives up oldest human DNA
Da ankle bone connected to da...leg bone!

Climate leaves European cities hesitant

* Rising Ocean Acidification Leads to Anxiety in Fish

*** Humans Threaten Wetlands' Ability to Keep Pace With Sea-Level Rise

*** Mysteries of Earth's Radiation Belts Uncovered by NASA Twin Spacecraft

*** NASA's Cassini Spacecraft Obtains Best Views of Saturn Hexagon



* Glimpsing the Infrastructure of a Gamma-Ray Burst Jet


Fledgling Supernova Remnant Reveals Neutron Star's Secrets

!!! While the Arctic Ocean Is Largely a Carbon Sink, Parts Are Also a Source of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

!!! Sea-Level Rise to Drive Coastal Flooding, Regardless of Change in Cyclone Activity

!!! Industrial Age Helps Some Coastal Regions Capture Carbon Dioxide, Surprise Finding Shows


Turning Waste Into Power With Bacteria and Loofahs


* Virtual Wall Could Stop Spread of Oil and Help Build Invisible Barrier for Oil Spills

Data Centers Can Be Cooled Down in Environmentally Friendly, Energy Efficient Ways

Silkworms Spin Colored Silks While On a 'Green' Dyed-Leaf Diet

*** First Global Snapshot of Key Coral Reef Fishes: Fishing Has Reduced Vital Seaweed Eaters by More Than 50 Percent

*** More Extreme Weather Events Likely: Climate Projections of Unparalleled Accuracy for the Whole of Europe

* Ocean Crust Could Store Many Centuries of Industrial Carbon Dioxide

*** Rapid Climate Changes at End of Last Glaciation, but With 120 Year Time Lag


Antarctic Fjords Are Climate-Sensitive Hotspots of Diversity in a Rapidly Warming Region

Texas Fishing Report
(for etxwx)

Tentative agreement signed in Klamath water wars

Report: Prepare for climate tipping points

Baffling 400,000-Year-Old Clue to Human Origins


!!! Ebb in Uranium Enrichment in U.S. Raises Questions About Nuclear Policy

Need to Know: 5 ways science makes for better wine
:)

The surprising hell of Bangladesh's toxic leather tanneries

* A Venus mission might solve mystery of moon's origin
North Carolina weather.

Cody our forecast says 62 for tomorrow but I think it will be a little warmer. 64 or so.
One of the most annoying thing about North Carolina is it's ALWAYS too warm whenever we get a chance of winter weather.

Not always..... :)
Drew Pellison loves snowboarding, but driving 30 minutes from Crestwood to Hidden Valley Ski Resort wasn't always possible. So he decided to build his own snow machine.

"I was looking around online to see if there was a way I could get snow," said Pellison, "and I came across this on a website. I thought 'hey why can't I build it?'"

"With plans from the internet, the Lindbergh high school sophomore spent about $500, mostly at the hardware store.

"At first it was quite difficult, then I found a forum which gave me a lot of advice, and after that it was quite easy," Pellison said.

Drew's mother says the snow machine became her son's hobby, as he experimented with more powerful motors and reconfiguring the equipment. The temperature has to be below freezing to make snow, and the colder the air, the better quality snow.

Despite Wednesday temperatures in the 60's, there was still a couple of feet of snow in the backyard of Pellison's Crestwood home. A week ago, he estimates the pile was about four feet high. "When I started, I anticipated maybe a few inches of snow overnight if I ran it all night," said Pellison. "But one morning I woke up and I had 6 feet of snow in my backyard."

Enough snow to get a reaction according to Kevin Pellison, Drew's dad.

"People slow down, they do a double take. Are they really seeing what they're seeing?" Kevin Pellison said. "We've had people stop and get a handful of snow out of the yard."

With temperatures about to plunge, Drew is already making plans for weekend snowboarding in his backyard, by running his homemade machine several times overnight. How much snow does he hope to make?

"As much as I can."
Quoting 631. Bluestorm5:
One of the most annoying thing about North Carolina is it's ALWAYS too warm whenever we get a chance of winter weather.



Hey its all from relative perspective man, just think how perfect everything has to come together for us to get winter precip here in Florida.

In comparison, its a lot easier for you guys especially on the east of state with higher elevation.

Besides, do you want a sleet and ice mix? If I were you, I'd pass on that mess, snow is interesting, but freezing rain, yuck.

Just imagine if there was a heavy ice storm in Florida, it would probably kill more people than many of our hurricanes have. Florida drivers are bad enough as it is, they panic and almost stop in normal operations like left and right turns! LOL


Plus people even act weird and scarred as soon as it starts to rain, and we all know rain is nothing weird in Florida. Given this, I can't imagine the chaos of an ice storm.

Especially in the Tampa Bay area, which is literally known for being one of the most dangerous driving areas, that is some of the worst drivers. Why? A many number of reasons which I won't get into right now, lol.
Quoting 627. Bluestorm5:
Models are trending colder in Mid-Atlantic... this mean Rain/Ice/Snow line will shift southward. 0z GFS got Asheville back under minor ice storm, but it won't be as bad as Virginia for sure.


Looks like the wedge is at work there.
Quoting 636. 1900hurricane:

Looks like the wedge is at work there.
It's too bad it's only few hours so I still don't have lot of hope from Sunday's event. However, Virginia is in for a major ice disaster like Arkansas and surrounding states.
Jedkins meant that the western part of North Carolina has the higher elevation, of course.

There was a substantial ice storm in north Florida in January 1962 with the freezing line cutting though central Jacksonville at the peak of the cold.
Virginia is not helpless in the face of winter weather.
Quoting 635. Jedkins01:


Hey its all from relative perspective man, just think how perfect everything has to come together for us to get winter precip here in Florida.

In comparison, its a lot easier for you guys especially on the east of state with higher elevation.

Besides, do you want a sleet and ice mix? If I were you, I'd pass on that mess, snow is interesting, but freezing rain, yuck.

Just imagine if there was a heavy ice storm in Florida, it would probably kill more people than many of our hurricanes have. Florida drivers are bad enough as it is, they panic and almost stop in normal operations like left and right turns! LOL


Plus people even act weird and scarred as soon as it starts to rain, and we all know rain is nothing weird in Florida. Given this, I can't imagine the chaos of an ice storm.

Especially in the Tampa Bay area, which is literally known for being one of the most dangerous driving areas, that is some of the worst drivers. Why? A many number of reasons which I won't get into right now, lol.


I just like all wintry weather :) I am not afraid to drive in it because I grew up in Midwest, haha.
Why does the GFS keep showing between .1 and 1 inch of snow in every run over my house for the past few days? Isn't the upper levels supposed to be to warm to support snow? Or is this including Sleet/Ice?


img src="">
Quoting 640. Bluestorm5:


I just like all wintry weather :) I am not afraid to drive in it because I grew up in Midwest, haha.


After you see all the southerners who don't know how to drive in ice and snow all around you....
Quoting 639. BaltimoreBrian:
Virginia is not helpless in the face of winter weather.
Ehh, they're getting a very long period of sleet/freezing rain. Like 24-30 hours.

Quoting 642. BaltimoreBrian:


After you see all the southerners who don't know how to drive in ice and snow all around you....


Yeah. In the South, it doesn't matter how good of a driver YOU are in the winter, it's how bad OTHERS around you are.
Quoting 642. BaltimoreBrian:


After you see all the southerners who don't know how to drive in ice and snow all around you....


Oh I believe you. I've seen cars in ditches after 2 inches of snow, lol. Hard to believe how pathetic southerners are at driving in ice or snow. Asheville scares me because of steepness of roads as well as the patterns.
ECMWF shifted big time to south with snow. I'll look into this more where Euro think the freezing rain will fall, but all I know is models are not ruling out wintry weather here yet. With that, I'm out.

Accuweather now calling for 50km/hr winds today with 90+ gusts.....should be fun at the Christmas Markets!
Thus far, it's looking like Xavier may be even more powerful than anticipated. The UK Met Office called for the low to deepen from 991 mb to 968 mb between 00z and 12z, from which we can interpolate a 06z pressure of maybe 979 mb. The low was at around 991 mb at 00z, but actual pressure readings that hour bottomed around 974 mb in the Shetlands as the center of the low has passed over. That's incredible bombogenesis (around 3 mb/hr), and in response, extreme winds have started impacted northern Scotland. Here's some peak gusts based on Wunderground station observations:
Eoropie (northern Isle of Lewis): 116 mph
Shulista (northern Isle of Skye): 102 mph
Balivanich (Benbecula): 83 mph
Stornoway (Isle of Lewis): 78 mph
Tiree: 72 mph

Meanwhile, the UK Met Office (which only gives hourly observations, and whose observations often differ from those on Wunderground) has the following peak gusts thus far:
Malin Head, Northern Ireland: 74 mph
Tiree: 77 mph
South Uist Range: 89 mph
Skye: 83 mph
Stornoway: 85 mph
Kirkwall (Orkney): 72 mph
Wick (mainland): 70 mph
Altnaharra Saws (mainland): 93 mph
Loch Glasgarnoch Saws (mainland): 92 mph
Glen Ogle: 94 mph

These extreme winds will be working their way south over the UK mainland throughout the morning, wreaking havoc on transportation.
Quoting 639. BaltimoreBrian:
Virginia is not helpless in the face of winter weather.


Uhhhhhhh... Have you seen us down here with an inch of snow? :p
Quoting 640. Bluestorm5:


I just like all wintry weather :) I am not afraid to drive in it because I grew up in Midwest, haha.


Well to each their own I guess haha, I wouldn't mind an occasional snow, and I like the cooler season. I guess I'm just not a hardcore winter person, which is good because I live in Florida.
At the same time, as I said I do like each change in season and at least modest cold weather like occasional freezes and highs in the 50s is a nice refreshing change.

As I've gotten older, I've realized I wouldn't want to live in a purely tropical region as much as I love lush jungles and thunderstorms. The constant warm weather gets old or the same goes for cold weather, any season that lasts too long gets old I think. Even as far as Florida goes, I prefer north and central Florida over south Florida because it gets cooler here noticeably more than south Florida.

Remember though, there is no such thing as good driving on ice, everyone loses control lol.


Can anyone share current images and forecasts for Xaver for later today?

Getting windy here in Amsterdam already :/
Good Morning!.....................
7-day Tampa Bay area................
655. VR46L
Well , I think I have survived ... the storm was rather ferrous it was @65 kts around 5 am this morning but I got off lightly , Scotland have all trains cancelled and reports of 100 mph winds Storm brings flood warnings and travel disruption

Strom surge forecast

and
Norway Met IR Imagery
656. VR46L
IR Pseudo Colour from Met France

657. VR46L
Sat 24 visual imagery

658. VR46L
659. VR46L
Quoting 651. skycycle:
Can anyone share current images and forecasts for Xaver for later today?

Getting windy here in Amsterdam already :/


See posts above
Good morning with a short hello.
Xaver (saved images). Source for update.






Source DWD.
Live streaming webcam Sylt.

Map of Sylt (Northern Germany):


---------------------------

Live streaming webcam Thyboroen/Denmark.

Location see wikipedia.
STV News - Storm Report

One confirmed dead in Scotland as all trains are cancelled, winds of up to 140mph recorded!

What time should the Netherlands and Denmark expect the worst? That second webcam looks gnarly :/
663. VR46L
Quoting 662. skycycle:
STV News - Storm Report

One confirmed dead in Scotland as all trains are cancelled, winds of up to 140mph recorded!

What time should the Netherlands and Denmark expect the worst? That second webcam looks gnarly :/


I dont Know , I would check your local mets if I were you ...


From Facebook site of the official German Weather Service DWD. Look here for more.

Thunderstorms and lightning associated with Xaver. Source.
Quoting 662. skycycle:
STV News - Storm Report

One confirmed dead in Scotland as all trains are cancelled, winds of up to 140mph recorded!

What time should the Netherlands and Denmark expect the worst? That second webcam looks gnarly :/



Your national weather service, skycycle (link).


"Xaver" is a really bad guy. Very high storm and tidal surge expected later today and tonight. But unfortunately I have to run. Others (VR, hello!) will fill in, I hope :-)



---------------------

Forecast maps for wind development.

-----------------------

Present tide readings for Hamburg (should update when refresh, notice: the orange markers show the predicted hight of the next tides!!!!):



Interactive map for more locations.

----------------

German live report with maps and pics.

-----------------


Radar Germany.

------------------

Latest weather readings Germany (FF = average wind in km/h; FX = Top gales in km/h.)
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's a balmy 73 degrees with a feels like temp of 77. And in 24 hours it's supposed to be about 31 degrees, quite a drop.

Everyone where this ice is going to hit, please be prepared and careful! They are saying six deaths already from this storm.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: shrimp and spinach omelet, Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, eggs and hash browns, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, berry breakfast pizza, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, pancakes and maple syrup, thick slices of fried honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Thanks for the info guys, Amsterdam is in the red zone, so I expect winds to pick up substantially within the next few hours + a serious tide :) It is currently 12:06 here :) Keep those photos coming, I love the quick responses on this blog - reason why I keep coming back for more knowledge year after year!
Quoting 654. LargoFl:
7-day Tampa Bay area................


Morning Largo and everyone else!

lil chilly Wednesday, eh? ;)
Xaver (called Bodil in Denmark) now reached 26 m/s (58 mil/hour) in sustained winds and 33 m/s (73 miles/h) in gust on the west coast of Denmark.
Live measurements
THose high tide predictions for Hamburg are very big O.o

Meanwhile pressure is steadily dropping here in Amsterdam, down to 1012, winds up to 75-80 km/h already
673. VR46L
Meanwhile in the Mid Atlantic...

Quoting 666. barbamz:



Your national weather service, skycycle (link).



For now we're watching the cold front (/w line convection phenomena) coming south, entering Holland in the northwest about 14:00 local time, passing South-Holland (Randstad area) between 16:00 and 17:00. Lot of action on and behind this front.
675. MPI88
Forecasted water elevation at Rotterdam:


Worlds largest storm surge barrier, the Maeslant Barrier, closes when the predicted surge at Rotterdam exceeds 3.00m NAP (Dutch reference level)

As you might notice, it is close to 2.75m NAP in this forecast. The Maeslant closure computer system (fully automated) uses a different system though. It might close, it probably will not.

The Easternscheldt barrier will close later today.

The Maeslant Barrier:
Starting to get breezy here west of Berlin....cold, too. This is going to be a miserable night for all of us in N. Europe.
Rain just began here in Amsterdam, going out to do a bit of shopping before it all goes to hell, will update when I'm back!
Quoting 673. VR46L:
Meanwhile in the Mid Atlantic...



Invest 90L still looking impressive for a DECEMBER area of interest! Is the large extratropical system over Scotland and Germany affecting this 90L? Just wondering ....

Will we get a "S.S. Nestor" out if 90L? It appears on VIS and enhanced satellite that the convection is still developing, and is located closer to the center than yesterday!
679. MPI88
ESTOFEX update:
A level 3 was issued for NE Netherlands, NW and N Germany and extreme S Denmark mainly for extreme wind gusts, and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.



Full synopsis available at Estofex.org
Quoting 644. Astrometeor:


Yeah. In the South, it doesn't matter how good of a driver YOU are in the winter, it's how bad OTHERS around you are.


The only other parts of the country this is true are the North, East, and West.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
717 AM AST THU DEC 5 2013

PRC021-029-031-033-039-047-051-061-087-091-101-11 9-127-135-137-139-
143-145-051315-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0397.131205T1117Z-131205T1315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BAYAMON PR-CANOVANAS PR-CIALES PR-COROZAL PR-GUAYNABO PR-MANATI PR-
MOROVIS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA
PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-TOA BAJA PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-RIO
GRANDE PR-LOIZA PR-
717 AM AST THU DEC 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CANOVANAS...CIALES...COROZAL...GUAYNABO. ..MANATI...
MOROVIS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...
DORADO...TOA ALTA...TOA BAJA...CAROLINA...CATANO...RIO GRANDE
AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 915 AM AST

* AT 710 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS PERSISTENT
RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS
WELL AS URBAN FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1847 6617 1846 6617 1847 6615 1844 6584
1832 6584 1837 6651 1848 6650 1848 6646
1849 6644

$$

FIGUEROA
Quoting 678. Stormwatch247:


Invest 90L still looking impressive for a DECEMBER area of interest! Is the large extratropical system over Scotland and Germany affecting this 90L? Just wondering ....

Will we get a "S.S. Nestor" out if 90L? It appears on VIS and enhanced satellite that the convection is still developing, and is located closer to the center than yesterday!


Looks pretty good to me... however... If it keeps heading north.... The chance of it turning into a subtropical storm will continue to fall..





Current Jet Stream Europe. Source for more.


Radar Europe with lightnings. Source.
Quoting 674. cRRKampen:

For now we're watching the cold front (/w line convection phenomena) coming south, entering Holland in the northwest about 14:00 local time, passing South-Holland (Randstad area) between 16:00 and 17:00. Lot of action on and behind this front.


Oil platform F3 couple 100 km NW of Den Helder/Holland just gusted to 90 kts, this is at passage of Cf.
Quoting 655. VR46L:
Well , I think I have survived ... the storm was rather ferrous it was @65 kts around 5 am this morning but I got off lightly , Scotland have all trains cancelled and reports of 100 mph winds Storm brings flood warnings and travel disruption

Strom surge forecast

and
Norway Met IR Imagery


Getting lots of rain here in N. Wales, wind is about like an average storm, not getting the brunt of that. Read a bit ago they've closed off the promenade in Rhyl and sandbagged, as they're expecting it to breach the seawall at high tide (right about now). The webcam on the s/w facing side at Rhosneigr on Anglesey, indeed shows huge waves, but no webcams I have show the north facing beaches of Wales. On any account, don't think will venture out this afternoon!
Quoting 673. VR46L:
Meanwhile in the Mid Atlantic...



yesterday when I came on and saw an invest in the ATL...clicked to look expecting the usual little mess of clouds or maybe a bit of a blob...then saw the sat image of what looked like a lovely lil' cyclone and was like...err what?! Looks better than all the ATL storms this year LOL
Quoting 675. MPI88:
Forecasted water elevation at Rotterdam:


Worlds largest storm surge barrier, the Maeslant Barrier, closes when the predicted surge at Rotterdam exceeds 3.00m NAP (Dutch reference level)

As you might notice, it is close to 2.75m NAP in this forecast. The Maeslant closure computer system (fully automated) uses a different system though. It might close, it probably will not.

The Easternscheldt barrier will close later today.

The Maeslant Barrier:


Well, if it doesn't close, hope it doesn't flood, as can imagine the hoopla if it woulda prevented flooding, had it closed!
Look what I am going thru this morning in San Juan.

Awww lookie here, more record lows than highs the past week. From Turkey Day til today:

Record highs: 41
Record lows: 208

Just 5 times as many lows than highs. NBD. December wont be the warmest on record. And the next week doesnt look any warmer unless of course you are sun bathing on south beach.

Link

May break some records for high temps this week......
Just came back from a little walk, it is raining more and more outside, winds are already serious and gusting wildly, at times it was hard to stay upright!

I assume things will get much worse for the Netherlands in the next few hours, right?
Quoting 670. GatorWX:


Morning Largo and everyone else!

lil chilly Wednesday, eh? ;)
yes they still are unsure how far south that cold(cool) front will actually make it..we'll see next week huh
Its quite chilly across the upper mid west. Brrrrrrrr. Its currently -12 at the Denver airport (it was -14 earlier), record is -15 so awfully close, and very cold for this time of year being only the first week in December.

with temps like this i dont see HOW our globe isnt cooling down some......
Denver hits 13 below, record low for Dec. 4

6 lives have been lost already..per GMA

Posted: 12/04/2013
Last Updated: 7 hours ago

TheDenverChannel.com Team TheDenverChannel.com Team | Email Me

DENVER - It's official: The temperature at Denver International Airport dropped to 13 degrees below zero at 10 p.m. Wednesday, breaking the previous record of 7 below an hour earlier and 5 below zero set on this date in 2008.

As Chief Meteorologist Mike Nelson pointed out, the wind child at DIA at 10 was 31 below zero. The lowest temperature in the state at 10 p.m. was 26 below at Walden, followed by 20 below zero at Meeker.

Nelson said the cold pattern will linger through Friday, with lows dropping to 5 to 15 degrees below zero and highs in the single digits and low teens. There will be some moderation in the cold this weekend, but it will be accompanied by another round of light to moderate snow Saturday and early Sunday.
WITH A QUICKER FALL OF TEMPS...AND THUS A QUICKER TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN...THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPRESSIVE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS WOULD BE ALONG/NEAR A LINE FROM
ROUGHLY MT IDA THROUGH CONWAY AND EAST TO BETWEEN SEARCY AND
BATESVILLE. THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LITTLE
ROCK...WILL LIKELY RECEIVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MIX...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY NECESSITATE A SIMPLE
WINTER STORM WARNING. HOWEVER STRICT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FAR OUTWEIGH...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO IMPACTS...ANY
SLEET ACCUMULATION THAT WILL OCCUR. FOR THIS REASON WE DECIDED TO
CONVERT PART OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ICE STORM WARNING.
THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF LITTLE
ROCK...COULD VERY EASILY SEE AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE
. FROM LITTLE ROCK EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD...ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THOUGH
STILL NOTHING TO SCOFF AT. LITTLE ROCK WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOW
END...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND HALF AN INCH...BUT AREAS
BETWEEN LITTLE ROCK...PINE BLUFF...AND BRINKLEY COULD SEE CLOSE TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. FURTHER COMPOUNDING
THIS SCENARIO WILL BE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO SPREAD THROUGH THE
STATE...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES
ACROSS ARKANSAS.
697. beell
Morning soundings at Dallas, TX and Norman, OK, still a little dry in the near surface/surface layer. That should change fairly quickly (lunch time?)









FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC021-031-033-061-087-127-139-051600-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0037.131205T1303Z-131205T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
903 AM AST THU DEC 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON
GUAYNABO
SAN JUAN
TRUJILLO ALTO
CAROLINA
CATANO
LOIZA

* UNTIL NOON AST

* AT 900 AM AST...WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
RIO PIEDRAS. RESIDENTS IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY AND NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1845 6594 1836 6597 1836 6615 1847 6614

$$

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Not much down in the southern half of England, as yet, lots of gusty winds, with more to come, we are told.

Further north it is much, much worse, and the high tide on the east coast has still to occur, when the storm surge rushes down the North Sea.

* 100,000 homes in Scotland are now without power due to disruption caused by the storm
* Northern Ireland Electricity says there are 6,500 customers without power
* 2,500 Essex homes have been evacuated as England's east coast prepares for the worst tidal surge in 30 years.

*The Met Office has recorded gusts of 106mph at Glenogle in Stirlingshire and 114mph on the slopes of Aonach Mor near Fort William.


My sister is flying out of Heathrow, out across Europe in an hour... it could be a bumpy trip!!
This is what I was referencing yesterday

I'm not sure anything really materializes though

Threat spikes up into TN as I figured since the warm sector and highest shear shortly reaches that latitutde.
Not a real threat IMO.




NRN PORTION WILL OUTPACE
PRECURSORY/WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION OF SFC PARCELS ENOUGH TO
MITIGATE ALREADY MRGL/CONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL WITH TIME.
HOWEVER...AREAS FROM MS DELTA REGION TO MIDDLE-ERN TN AND PERHAPS
ERN KY SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUFFICIENT PREFRONTAL SFC THETAE ADVECTION
TO RENDER SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS...AMIDST SFC DEW POINTS
MOSTLY 60S F WITH SOME 70S NEAR GULF COAST. THIS FACTOR WILL OFFSET
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO RENDER MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG OVER
PORTIONS MS/AL. CAPE FIELD WILL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE AND GET
NARROWER IN BREADTH WITH NWD EXTENT. 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND
100-200 J/KG 0-1 KM SRH ARE FCST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF FRONT.

ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO CANNOT BE
DEFINITIVELY RULED OUT...THUS MRGL PROBABILITIES. HOWEVER...
OVERALL
ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AMIDST WEAK LAPSE
RATES/BUOYANCY...LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT...PRESENCE OF STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR BEHIND SFC
FRONT...NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY POSITIVE MID-UPPER HEIGHT CHANGES...AND
FLOW ALOFT BEING PARALLEL TO FRONT RESULTING IN SLGT NET ANAFRONTAL
CHARACTER.

INITIALLY SEPARATE AREA OF MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AND SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP/EXPAND PERSIST FROM GULF NEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MS AND
AL...PERHAPS WRN GA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN ERN PORTIONS OF
LONGSTANDING LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT PLUME...E OF EDGE OF
EML-RELATED CAPPING LAYER EVIDENT IN 12Z JAN/LIX RAOBS. WHILE
BUOYANCY DEEP ENOUGH TO REACH IDEAL THERMAL LAYERS FOR LTG
PRODUCTION IS IN DOUBT...AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTM ARE POSSIBLE. OCNL
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL STORM-SCALE ROTATION ALSO MAY DEVELOP GIVEN FCST
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND RESULTANT PROGS OF 100-200 J/KG OF
0-1 KM SRH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND LACK OF MORE
ROBUST BUOYANCY WILL KEEP TORNADO THREAT VERY MRGL/CONDITIONAL AT
MOST.




I don't buy the SPC's threat for tomorrow

..MS DELTA INTO CNTRL/NERN AL...
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN/BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ON THE COLDER SIDE OF
THE STALLED FRONT AND A MODEST WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE
GULF/SERN LA TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE IN THE LOW-MID 60S F. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MLCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 800-1200 J/KG COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TRANSIENT
FRONTAL WAVES DURING THE DAY. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50KT
AMIDST THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY CORRIDOR WILL BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO AND
POSSIBLY EVEN A TORNADO
. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS AT THIS TIME
APPEAR TO BE THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD MOTION ACROSS
THE REGION AND GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES LIMITING STORM UPDRAFT
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE.
Quoting 694. LargoFl:
with temps like this i dont see HOW our globe isnt cooling down some......


Canada + US only make up ~4% of the world's surface area though.
Here



.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
..

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

DISCUSSION...
DUE TO SOME SHEAR AND INSTABILITY THERE IS SMALL POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS
SMALL IT WILL STILL EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CEDARTOWN
TO BLUE RIDGE AND NORTH.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

THERE IS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTH GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

From the Miami NWS Disco...

THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE IN CONTROL OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE EARLY DECEMBER AVERAGES.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE REGION FREE OF RAINFALL. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE TROUGH AFFECTS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALSO MOVE LITTLE
STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AND LOWER TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS BUT STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
sharp gradient over N GA

Quoting 691. skycycle:
Just came back from a little walk, it is raining more and more outside, winds are already serious and gusting wildly, at times it was hard to stay upright!

I assume things will get much worse for the Netherlands in the next few hours, right?

Cold front now touching the Dutch Wadden isles. Action should be on that. After that short lull, then wind up in trough with squally snow/sleet/hail showers again.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
PRC037-053-085-089-103-051530-
/O.COR.TJSJ.FF.W.0038.131205T1329Z-131205T1530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 AM AST THU DEC 5 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CEIBA
NAGUABO
LAS PIEDRAS
FAJARDO
LUQUILLO

* UNTIL 1130 AM AST

* AT 920 AM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR ESTIMATED PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA. THIS PERSISTENT RAINFALL
WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS URBAN FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6562 1834 6560 1835 6556 1832 6562
1831 6561 1832 6562 1827 6562 1826 6559
1821 6561 1819 6563 1825 6583 1829 6581
1828 6576 1832 6575 1837 6577 1838 6575

$$

FIGUEROA

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
is that 59 in Buffalo????? I find the 59 in Buffalo and 63 in Cincinnati equally amazing.....what a temperature gradient!

Webcam Hallig Hooge.
Quoting 697. beell:
Morning soundings at Dallas, TX and Norman, OK, still a little dry in the near surface/surface layer. That should change fairly quickly (lunch time?)











That will further support a freezing rain event. Look at the dewpoint depression on the soundings for both places. Once the precip develops (mainly due to overunning), there will be some serious evaporative cooling going on. However, gonna take a while to get that deep warm layer out of there, if it happens at all.
Before/After image at Hallig Hooge, looks like the entire island is submerged now O.o



Cold front now impacting the coast, winds around 150 km/h, soon to spread inland with winds up to 120-130 km/h...

Looking like a dangerous surge situation for the northwestern german coast Hamburg!
712. MahFL
Quoting 694. LargoFl:
with temps like this i dont see HOW our globe isnt cooling down some......


Er it's well above normal in Florida, so there is some equaling warm temps in the same country. Your thinking is a bit flawed.
Does anyone know if there is a winter weather blog here on wunderground similar to or like Dr Masters? If so could someone wumail a link to me. I figure now that they are naming winter storms etc, I have an increased interest in obs and such (as I am studying weather as an enthusiest)

TIA

-Midwest storm
More sections of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Tennessee are under an ice storm warning today. Ice accumulations of at least 1/2", up to an inch in some areas, are likely and numerous power outages will occur. Some major cities under an ice storm warning are Little Rock, AR and Memphis, TN. Places to the north of the major ice accumulations should see some decent snow and sleet accumulations, and winter storm warnings are in effect in these areas.
ice storm warning for Little Rock!!! its going to be a big ice storm
Quoting 712. MahFL:


Er it's well above normal in Florida, so there is some equaling warm temps in the same country. Your thinking is a bit flawed.
The problem with Largo's line of thought here is that we could trim "OUR globe" to Florida, which as we know has been quite warm lately and say the inverse. The globe is the globe, not some piece of it. It will be interesting to see the global December temps, but in all likelihood, they will be above average.
Bild.de has a live stream if anyone is interested(not always a USA safe for work site... :) )

LOL....just noticed, don't scroll down if your boss is around.
Quoting 713. Midweststorm:
Does anyone know if there is a winter weather blog here on wunderground similar to or like Dr Masters? If so could someone wumail a link to me. I figure now that they are naming winter storms etc, I have an increased interest in obs and such (as I am studying weather as an enthusiest)

TIA

-Midwest storm

There is blizzard92's blog.Speaking of winter weather I don't think D.C will see much.The elements coming together reminds me to much of that March 6 fail storm.
When cold Artic air plunges down into the United States, warm air pushes up into Alaska.

Barrow Alaska is running about 15 - 20 degrees above normal. Highs expected in the upper 20s later this week. That's about 30 degrees above normal. Normal temperatures are below zero for high/low this time of year.
Quoting 719. Sfloridacat5:
When cold Artic air plunges down into the United States, warm air pushes up into Alaska.

Barrow Alaska is running about 15 - 20 degrees above normal. Highs expected in the upper 20s later this week. That's about 30 degrees above normal. Normal temperatures are below zero for high/low this time of year.
Looks like the "Arctic"..air only last as day for D.C.(high of 39 mind you) For the next week and a half fox 5 shows highs in the mid-upper 40's.Lol.That is not arctic....
Oklahoma City waiting for 3-6" of snow to start falling.
Quoting 722. washingtonian115:
Looks like the "Arctic"..air only last as day for D.C.(high of 39 mind you) For the next week and a half fox 5 shows highs in the mid-upper 40's.Lol.That is not arctic....


D.C. is missing out on the "Artic" air. The central plains and West have been experiencing the "Artic" plunge.
Quoting 722. washingtonian115:
Looks like the "Arctic"..air only last as day for D.C.(high of 39 mind you) For the next week and a half fox 5 shows highs in the mid-upper 40's.Lol.That is not arctic....


that's because of a second system forming after the first once that one passes it gets cold

Corpus Christi - same latitude as Tampa. Highs only in the 40s coming up.
Look deep into the future.... The high practically tracks right over DC

Your're gonna make it snow in DC by reverse psychology.





Quoting 726. Sfloridacat5:
Corpus Christi - same latitude as Tampa. Highs only in the 40s coming up.
Interesting, but makes sense, the general pattern is for a high off the West Coast, a trough in the Central US, a ridge off the East Coast, and a trough over the UK. It's a wavy persistent pattern that might last for the entire month. Will be interesting to see if it changes in January. But just looking at Accuweather's forecast and comparing it with the GFS in the long range it doesn't look like the East Coast will be seeing any major arctic outbreaks anytime soon.
Just a little cold in Great Falls, Montana.
Survive the next few days and you get a warm up.
Tomorrow's TCFP.

SHIPS predicts 90L to be subtropical in about 6 hours.

Link
Quoting 733. Torito:
SHIPS predicts 90L to be subtropical in about 6 hours.

Link
Quoting 734. GTstormChaserCaleb:


Yea, looks almost subtropical already.

I'm thinking that the NHC will bump the formation probability up into the orange or red later today...

50-60%, Maybe?...

Wow look at Alaska!



Heights at the mid-levels of the atmosphere at 570 mb.
Looks nice.

G'morning from Central OK,

The fun is yet to begin, as noticed by others (beell) nothing is quite reaching the ground, yet. At least in my neck of the woods.

Where things will actually fall is still a bit up in the air, as the models have been bouncing around a bit. Looks as if the worst of this will pass well south of me - where SE OK should be bracing for a significant ice storm.

Snow and sleet for bedlam (the OSU vs OU football showdown). Coldest air expected on Tuesday morning when it is possibe that record lows (-2F) will be flirted with.

All I have to say is, if its going to get this cold then it had better snow (but not too much) so we get something pretty to look at.

On a side note, Oklahoma has a law that discourages removal of snow/ice from sidewalks, walkways in residential (private) areas. You're personally held liable if you clear the way and anyone should slip and fall. Sigh . . . so instead, at least my neck o' the woods, remains an ice rink until it all melts off.

Cheers to all, stay warm!
The TCFP signals that something could try to form here out of this extatropical cyclone..... But I doubt anything will come from it.

Quoting 737. Torito:
Looks nice.

nice structure for a late system

Quoting 737. Torito:
Looks nice.

Well on its way to becoming Nestor.

Nes·tor (nstr, -tôr)
n. Greek Mythology
1. A hero celebrated as an elderly and wise counselor to the Greeks at Troy.
2. often nestor A venerable and wise old man.
So our little wind event wrapped up yesterday with top sustained winds at 59 MPH and gusts of 69.....artic blast won't reach us should stop just north in roswell and carlsbad......rain though......always a welcome site in el paso
I don't know if anyone else noticed this....

The ATL hurricane season appeared to start later, and end later as well.....

Look at these temperature charts for example.....

Near the start of the year they were lower than average but now they are still higher than they should be...





Same seems to go for vertical instability as well....

At the beginning of the year, the GOM instability was mostly under the average, but reversed towards the end of the year...



Maybe this is something to watch over the next few years.
Last 5 Years Still the Warmest

The UAH anomaly for the lower troposphere for November was +0.19°C, which doesn't look impressive until you remember that their base period, 1981-2010, is quite recent.

(Really, is it too much to ask for the five major groups to get together and decide on, and use, a common base period? And for UAH and RSS to decide if their results warrant 2 significant figures (UAH, though they give 3 on Roy Spencer's blog) or 3 (RSS)? They're using the same raw data, after all, though with slightly different methodologies.)

In any case, this is still the warmest 5 years in the UAH record, though this isn't a statisically significant statement at the canonical level.

Quoting 744. Patrap:
Last 5 Years Still the Warmest

The UAH anomaly for the lower troposphere for November was +0.19°C, which doesn't look impressive until you remember that their base period, 1981-2010, is quite recent.

(Really, is it too much to ask for the five major groups to get together and decide on, and use, a common base period? And for UAH and RSS to decide if their results warrant 2 significant figures (UAH, though they give 3 on Roy Spencer's blog) or 3 (RSS)? They're using the same raw data, after all, though with slightly different methodologies.)

In any case, this is still the warmest 5 years in the UAH record, though this isn't a statisically significant statement at the canonical level.



Meh. I like it warm like this.. I would rather be hot than shivering.
Quoting 743. Torito:
I don't know if anyone else noticed this....

The ATL hurricane season appeared to start later, and end later as well.....

Look at these temperature charts for example.....

Near the start of the year they were lower than average but now they are still higher than they should be...





Same seems to go for vertical instability as well....

At the beginning of the year, the GOM instability was mostly under the average, but reversed towards the end of the year...



Maybe this is something to watch over the next few years.
No surprise there with the planet warming, ocean temperatures should rise with it, thus a longer hurricane season is not out of the realm of possibility.
Blackpool got a bit flooded today though, via a hotel owner on the promenades' Facebook page. I've seen the waves crash onto and over when I lived there, but never saw it this flooded

Link
Nice look at Invest 90L and Xaver over northern parts of Europe bringing high winds with it.

Quoting 722. washingtonian115:
Looks like the "Arctic"..air only last as day for D.C.(high of 39 mind you) For the next week and a half fox 5 shows highs in the mid-upper 40's.Lol.That is not arctic....


39 is very optimistic for Sunday. Suspect more like 33 with ice pellets or cold rain in the city and freezing rain elsewhere. Monday warms up but tuesday night through thursday are going to be respectably cold for mid December (near freezing highs, teens for lows). Even a week out this is a large scale feature and I buy it.
Quoting 747. mitthbevnuruodo:
Blackpool got a bit flooded today though, via a hotel owner on the promenades' Facebook page. I've seen the waves crash onto and over when I lived there, but never saw it this flooded

Link
Thanks for this, that sea looks mean looking.
Quoting 712. MahFL:


Er it's well above normal in Florida, so there is some equaling warm temps in the same country. Your thinking is a bit flawed.
maybe BUT..europe is COLD as well,should not the cold temps cancel out warm temps?..if not why not?
this is one of the very few places that actually shows world weather events. thanks dr masters.
Quoting 749. georgevandenberghe:


39 is very optimistic for Sunday. Suspect more like 33 with ice pellets or cold rain in the city and freezing rain elsewhere. Monday warms up but tuesday night through thursday are going to be respectably cold for mid December (near freezing highs, teens for lows). Even a week out this is a large scale feature and I buy it.
Sunday Forecast for Washington, DC:

Hi 38°
RealFeel® 32°
Precipitation 70%
Day

NESW
ENE 7 mph
Gusts: 13 mph
Snow and sleet in the morning followed by snow changing to rain in the afternoon
Max UV Index: 1 (Low)
Thunderstorms: 4%
Precipitation: 0.11 in
Rain: 0.04 in
Snow: 0.2 in
Ice: 0.04 in
Hours of Precipitation: 4.5 hrs
Hours of Rain: 2 hrs
A long way out, but this appears to be a very complex and energetic set up.
Seems someone has confused weather with climate.

Its a tad more complicated than er, that.

Weather turned worse here in Amsterdam about 15 minutes ago, heavy rain and lightning strikes, winds a bit higher than they were earlier, but with strong gusts. I can only imagine what the winds are like on the western Danish coast..
A little line of thunderstorms crossing KT right now... But other than that, the US has relatively quiet weather.

Quoting 751. LargoFl:
maybe BUT..europe is COLD as well,should not the cold temps cancel out warm temps?..if not why not?
No, because that is to be expected as we are approaching winter in the Northern Hemisphere. And Europe is at a higher latitude than the majority of the CONUS.
Quoting 755. Patrap:
Seems someone has confused weather with climate.

Its a tad more complicated than er, that.

Do you know when they are going to be coming out with November's?
Within a week, usually by the 10th-12th

note the date on the October image
Quoting 745. Torito:


Meh. I like it warm like this.. I would rather be hot than shivering.
Got that right
Quoting 761. PalmBeachWeather:
Got that right


Morning, PBW. How is retirement going?
Quoting 763. Torito:


Morning, PBW. How is retirement going?
Lovin' it.... Unpacking all of my Christmas decorations....
Just after I wrote my previous post, a stronger band of the storm (is band the proper term here?) passed directly over Amsterdam - winds immediately kicked up, very heavy rain that went to small hail for a minute or two and almost fog like conditions from all the spray and the gusts...

Can someone link to webcams on the Danish west coast, because it must be pretty good footage right now :)
90L Data.


At 1200 UTC, 05 December 2013, LOW INVEST (AL90) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 33.5°N and 27.8°W. The current intensity was 45 kt and the center was moving at 6 kt at a bearing of 10 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb.

Quoting 765. skycycle:
Just after I wrote my previous post, a stronger band of the storm (is band the proper term here?) passed directly over Amsterdam - winds immediately kicked up, very heavy rain that went to small hail for a minute or two and almost fog like conditions from all the spray and the gusts...

Can someone link to webcams on the Danish west coast, because it must be pretty good footage right now :)


Lets just say the webcam has seen better days over there. LOL!

Link
Here is another webcam, but it is (not surprisingly) Down.

Link
Quoting 764. PalmBeachWeather:
Lovin' it.... Unpacking all of my Christmas decorations....


Ahh... We usually don't do that till the week AFTER Christmas... IF we even get that far... ;)
Here a webcam that is still up.... Look at those wave heights.

Link
Brocken, 151km/hr....yikes
Both those cam links works for me, but conditions are really bad and not much can be seen other than very high wind speed and a boat and some waves in the background (at times). Even the third cam on the website works.

Looks like mix for me in North central MD.

It is hot in Orlando today. Already in the 80's at 10:30 in the morning. I am over this already. Cold please come this way!!
Quoting 753. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Sunday Forecast for Washington, DC:

Hi 38°
RealFeel® 32°
Precipitation 70%
Day

NESW
ENE 7 mph
Gusts: 13 mph
Snow and sleet in the morning followed by snow changing to rain in the afternoon
Max UV Index: 1 (Low)
Thunderstorms: 4%
Precipitation: 0.11 in
Rain: 0.04 in
Snow: 0.2 in
Ice: 0.04 in
Hours of Precipitation: 4.5 hrs
Hours of Rain: 2 hrs



This will likely be a late night Sunday high as warming finally
spreads in. The afternoon will be colder, perhaps nasty and
freezing.

I drive 30 miles to a stable sunday afternoons for kids horse lessons; this over hilly winding narrow roads and ice would not be welcomed.
If the Euro is correct then we might get a December Tornado Outbreak next weekend across the south.



GFS 36 hours. Twins!

780. VR46L
Lost Net for about 2 hrs today cuz of this thing

Quoting 780. VR46L:
Lost Net for about 2 hrs today cuz of this thing

VR...What conditions did you experience?
90L looks impressive now...

783. VR46L
Quoting 781. PalmBeachWeather:
VR...What conditions did you experience?


I live about 100 Ft above sea level so no flooding here but about 8 miles away there was some flooding . Wind was Gusting upto 65 KTS and Squally showers .. Arctic air is to follow through so could have snow tonight . Electric had flickered and like I said lost net for a time . But I know that I only caught it as it was bombing and moving east so got away lightly really
784. VR46L
Quoting 782. Torito:
90L looks impressive now...



I am rooting for it !



A nice blast of tropical air would be appreciated here now!
Quoting 778. StormTrackerScott:
If the Euro is correct then we might get a December Tornado Outbreak next weekend across the south.



Almost a classic set up. High pressure in the Atlantic providing moisture rich return flow directly into a potent low pulling down cold air. It could become a ice and wind event, which is devastating to trees. Have to watch it.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 765. skycycle:
Just after I wrote my previous post, a stronger band of the storm (is band the proper term here?) passed directly over Amsterdam - winds immediately kicked up, very heavy rain that went to small hail for a minute or two and almost fog like conditions from all the spray and the gusts...

Can someone link to webcams on the Danish west coast, because it must be pretty good footage right now :)

That was the cold front.
,
Quoting 723. Sfloridacat5:
Oklahoma City waiting for 3-6" of snow to start falling.


Take that picture after it falls so we can compare.