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Extreme weather and climate change: a new IPCC report

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:48 PM GMT on November 18, 2011

Extreme weather events are already being affected by human-caused climate change, and will increase in destructive power during the coming decades as huge cost, reported the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) today. The IPCC issues reports on the state of the scientific knowledge of climate change every six years, with the next full report due out in 2013. However, concern over the possible impact climate change may already be having on extreme weather events like heat waves, floods, and droughts prompted the IPCC to release their first-ever Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX report was divided into two sections: how human-caused climate change has already affected extreme weather events, and predictions on how these events will change during the rest of the century. Here are some highlights on how the climate has already changed, according to the SREX report:

- Globally, cold days and nights have decreased, and warm days and nights have increased (90 - 100% chance).

- In many but not all regions of the globe, the length or number of heat waves has increased.

- Some areas have seen more intense and longer droughts, in particular, southern Europe and West Africa. However, droughts have become less frequent, less intense, or shorter in some areas, such as central North America and northwestern Australia.

- Heavy precipitation events have changed in some regions. There is at least a 2-in-3 probability that more regions have seen increases than decreases in heavy precipitation events.

- The historical data base on hurricanes and tropical cyclones is not good enough to tell if they have changed.

- The jet stream has shifted towards the poles, meaning that the tracks of rain-bearing low pressure systems have also shifted towards the poles.

- Rising sea levels have led to an increase in extreme coastal flooding events (66 - 100% chance).

- Damage from extreme weather events has increased. Increases in population and wealth, and the fact more people are living in vulnerable areas, is a major cause of this increase in damage. It is uncertain if climate change is partially responsible for the increase in damage.


Figure 1. Predicted return periods for 1-day extreme precipitation events that occurred, on average, only once every 20 years between 1981-2000. A decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme precipitation events (i.e., less time between events on average). For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century, according to these climate model predictions. The box plots show results for regionally averaged projections for two time horizons, 2046 to 2065 and 2081 to 2100, as compared to the late-20th-century, and for three different emissions scenarios--a scenario where humans emit relatively little CO2 and other heat-trapping gasses (B1, blue bars), and two higher-emission scenarios (A1B and A2, green and red bars). Humanity is currently on a pace to emit more CO2 than the highest emission scenario shown here. Results are based on 14 climate models that contributed to the 2007 IPCC report. The level of agreement among the models is indicated by the size of the colored boxes (in which 50% of the model projections are contained), and the length of the whiskers (indicating the maximum and minimum projections from all models). Values are computed for land points only. The “Globe” inset box displays the values computed using all land grid points. Averaged over all areas of the globe, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-8 to 1-in-12 year event by the end of the century. Image credit: The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (SREX), 2011.

Here are some highlights of the forecasts for the future from the 2011 SREX report:

- A 1-in-20 year hottest day is at least 66% likely to become a 1-in-2 year event by the end of the 21st century in most regions, except in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where it is likely to become a 1-in-5 year event.

- For Eastern North America, a 1-in-20 year heavy rain event is predicted to become a 1-in-7 to 1-in-9 year event by the end of the century.

- For Eastern North America, a maximum high temperature that occurred only once every 20 years during 1980 - 2000 is predicted to occur between once every three years and once per year by 2100.

- Extreme high temperature readings that occur once every 20 years will increase by 1°C to 3°C (1.8°F - 5.4°F) by mid-21st century and by about 2°C to 5°C (3.6°F - 9°F) by late-21st century.

- It is at least 66% likely that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe. This is particularly the case in the high latitudes and tropical regions, and in winter in the northern mid-latitudes. There is medium confidence that, in some regions, increases in heavy precipitation will occur despite projected decreases of total precipitation in those regions.

- Heavy rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones are at least 66% likely to increase with continued warming, and the maximum winds will increase. The total number of these storms is likely to remain about the same or decrease.

- There is medium confidence that droughts will intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and areas. Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region, central Europe, Central North America, Central America and Mexico, northeast Brazil, and southern Africa are at particular risk.

- In some regions, the main driver for increased damages from extreme weather events will not be climate change, but increases in population and wealth and vulnerability.

Intoducing climatecommunication.org
For those of you seeking detailed information on the research linking extreme weather events to climate change, I recommend a new website dedicated to improving communication of climate change information to the public, media, and policy makers, climatecommunication.org. The group is led by Susan Joy Hassol, a veteran climate change communicator, analyst, and author known for her ability to translate science into English, making complex issues accessible to policymakers and the public. Climatecommunication.org has put together an overview of extreme weather and climate change that I find a helpful resource when I am looking for the latest research results on the subject. I serve on their advisory board, along with a number of leading climate scientists.


Figure 2. Still image of the Bangkok, Thailand floods of October - November, 2011, as seen on the inaugural episode our new bi-monthly Extreme Weather video series.

Wunderground launches new Extreme Weather video series
Wunderground now features a new, twice-monthly Extreme Weather video series from GREEN.TV, with the latest reports and analysis on extreme weather around the world. From droughts to hurricanes to blizzards to flooding, Extreme Weather will cover the story and the science behind the events to try to understand their causes and consequences. The Extreme Weather series is sponsored by Vestas, the world's leading wind turbine manufacturer. The inaugural episode, launched yesterday, features video of the great Thailand flood, destructive floods in Italy, the $3 billion Northeast U.S. snowstorm of October 29 - 30, the massive Bering Sea, Alaska blizzard of November 9, the Texas drought, and the launch of a new polar-orbiting weather satellite. Look for a new video every two weeks on our Climate Change Videos page.

Resources
For those of you who haven't seen it, my top "must-read" post of 2011 is called, 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?. Back in June, I went through the ridiculous barrage of extreme weather events the planet saw in 2010 and early 2011, and concluded: But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force.

Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has some thoughtful observations on the communication of the extreme weather/climate change link published in earthzine magazine titled, Changing the Media Discussion on Climate Change and Extreme Weather.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good morning. Foggy and very humid down on the bayou as the sun comes up. I see it is the same as it ever was here on WU.


Yeah, Science trumping Ideology..or the er, "Oz" factor you could say.

There is a Bunker available though..

LoL
Anyone who's caught even a glimpse of either of the BBC's amazing "Earth" nature documentary series (The Blue Planet and Planet Earth) knows how great they really are: beautifully produced, expertly filmed, lovingly edited, professionally narrated by David Attenborough.

The most recent--Frozen Planet--spends time looking at Earth's north and south polar environments, and the challenges wildlife faces living in such a harsh places. Frozen Planet started airing last month in the UK, and it's already become the highest-rated nature program there in over a decade. Luckily for us here in the states, the Discovery Channel will begin airing the seven-part series sometime in the spring of 2012.

However--

United States viewers won't be able to watch the final episode ("On Thin Ice") of Frozen Planet, as it focuses on climate change. Yes, some higher up(s) at Discovery decided the topic was too much for sensitive American tastes, so we won't be able to watch it here (despite that fact that Discovery was a producing partner for the series). Discovery claims they're not airing the episode due to "scheduling issues", but that's difficult to believe: the network, which claims to be dedicated to "nature programming at its finest" currently airs 25 reality series about such "natural" subjects as guns, cars, trucks, motorcycles, hunting, fishing, logging, auctioneering, and so on. I'm certain they could show one less re-run of "Swamp Loggers" or "Auction Kings" or "Carfellas" to make room for "On Thin Ice", so that excuse doesn't wash.

In case you ever wonder just why it is that Americans as a whole are having a more difficult time accepting the overwhelming science behind climate change, you need look no further than this kind of silliness. It's sad. Pathetic, even.
Good morning everyone. I just want to share my new video named "Chain Lightning" I hope you like it.

I have a question about the SREX ensemble projections. If the "blue bar" box and whiskers represents a status quo atmosphere, why aren't the ensembles centered along a 20 year return period? Or is the B1 scenario based on increasing CO2 etc up to 2046 and then no change thereafter?
Quoting Seastep:
Please, Scott, show me how it is not true that there has been no significant temp increase since 2000.

Are you asserting otherwise?


Another red herring.

1. Using monthly timeseries data, it has been found that a 15yr or longer period is required in order to discern the long-term trend from natural variability.
2. Statistical analysis has also shown no evidence for a changed trend since 2000.
3. According to NCDC data, every year since 2000 was warmer than 2000. The decade of 2000-2009 was the warmest decade on record.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Anyone who's caught even a glimpse of either of the BBC's amazing "Earth" nature documentary series (The Blue Planet and Planet Earth) knows how great they really are: beautifully produced, expertly filmed, lovingly edited, professionally narrated by David Attenborough.

The most recent--Frozen Planet--spends time looking at Earth's north and south polar environments, and the challenges wildlife faces living in such a harsh places. Frozen Planet started airing last month in the UK, and it's already become the highest-rated nature program there in over a decade. Luckily for us here in the states, the Discovery Channel will begin airing the seven-part series sometime in the spring of 2012.

However--

United States viewers won't be able to watch the final episode ("On Thin Ice") of Frozen Planet, as it focuses on climate change. Yes, some higher up(s) at Discovery decided the topic was too much for sensitive American tastes, so we won't be able to watch it here (despite that fact that Discovery was a producing partner for the series). Discovery claims they're not airing the episode due to "scheduling issues", but that's difficult to believe: the network, which claims to be dedicated to "nature programming at its finest" currently airs 25 reality series about such "natural" subjects as guns, cars, trucks, motorcycles, hunting, fishing, logging, auctioneering, and so on. I'm certain they could show one less re-run of "Swamp Loggers" or "Auction Kings" or "Carfellas" to make room for "On Thin Ice", so that excuse doesn't wash.

In case you ever wonder just why it is that Americans as a whole are having a more difficult time accepting the overwhelming science behind climate change, you need look no further than this kind of silliness. It's sad. Pathetic, even.


Yes, Frozen Planet is a wonderful series. It's halfway through over here. Shame it's a touch short.

These series cost a lot of time (2 years at least to film) and money to do. I'm sure Discovery pitched in at some point (either in the making or to 'licence' the series out) so the idea of spending potentially millions for a programme to fall shy of 'scheduling issues' is risible. If it's true, that is.

Perhaps American viewers will be able to watch it via Youtube or some such (or maybe BBC America can be naughty and show the last episode anyway).
Fuggettabout Tammy. Vince boils up in 9 days, becoming very Wilma like. Whitney, our first Major December hurricane will really getting the season started, ending with Sub Tropical Storm Gamma in late January.At least 6 more storms, one major, and the season will finally end....unless you believe Dr. Bongevine who says we will have 2 February storms as well. Ive informed my wife that she wont be seeing a lot of me in December, I advise you all make the same arrangements...and get strapped in. Let's get the party started!!!
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Another red herring.

1. Using monthly timeseries data, it has been found that a 15yr or longer period is required in order to discern the long-term trend from natural variability.
2. Statistical analysis has also shown no evidence for a changed trend since 2000.
3. According to NCDC data, every year since 2000 was warmer than 2000. The decade of 2000-2009 was the warmest decade on record.


Just for Nea, I am going to do GISS, too, after this year is over.

Yes, the decade is warmer, but not getting warmer. There is a difference.

My prediction is below. We'll find out who is right.

Quoting Snowlover123:


Dr. Spencer has become a laughingstock because he uses evidence to base his claims instead of Climate Models like the AGW Supporters like to use?

He has become a laughingstock because in the face of modelling everything to fit CAGW, he and his team have continued to find that negative feedbacks exist within Earth's Climate, when it is abundently clear that they have always existed by simply looking at the paleoclimatological data?

Just because he notes, by looking at the evidence, that Cloud Cover changes could be responsible for most of the warming, and that they act as a negative feedback AND a forcing, makes him a laughingstock?

If you want evidence based off of models, here you go:



The above image shows that the computer models are not handeling how the Earth radiates heat. Actual observations show that the Earth can radiate much more thermal energy out into space than the models suggest, which would mean that the Earth is less sensitive to changes in the Global Energy Budget.

What I posted about the CERES Radiative flux is not a computer model. It is simple, direct, observations that show that the change in the total radiative flux does not look ANYTHING like a radiative feedback. The radiative forcing makes up a large portion of the total CERES radiative flux, which indicates that whatever changed the Cloud Forcing, rather than a radiative feedback is responsible for most to about all of the decline in Cloud Cover.

May I ask, what is this observed "human signature" that you are talking about that makes it incontroversial that humans are the primary cause of Global Warming?


You're making an incorrect assumption. The models are based on the results of scientific research, not vice versa. The models can then be used to study other characteristics of the climate that would not be possible or difficult to do otherwise.

You make it sound like the scientists just made the models out of thin air and started using them for the hell of it. That is not the case. The earliest computer climate models to the '60's-'70's.

You also cast aspersions that climate scientists do not account for negative feedbacks, which is patently false. You'll find more than one paper on negative feedbacks, and any GCM worth it's salt will also account for them.

And while cloud cover certainly would have an impact on temperature, his claims that cloud cover is the main contributor to the planetary warming trend have been thoroughly debunked. And "debunked" is putting it very mildly.

Spencer is not credible because his research does not stand up to scrutiny. And when he can't get his papers through peer review in credible journals, he pushes them through rubber stamp junk science journals or blogs instead.

Posting graphs, explanations from his site, rejected papers, WUWT, or whatever isn't going to help your case. If the research hasn't been able to stand up to peer-review then it is, at best, unverifiable hypotheses.

People like Spencer are making extraordinary claims and attempting to throw out decades of well established research in science. Those kinds of claims require an extraordinary amount of proof. And so far, people like Spencer have fallen well short of that bar.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here comes what appears will be our last named storm of the season. 99L.


If 99L is named, that would give us Tammy and tie us with last year and the 3rd most active hurricane season ever.

We're not done yet....Models are showing 1-2 more in the next 168 hours.
Quoting Snowlover123:


I think you're misinterpreting what I mean by "Cloud Forcing." Wiki has a nice page on it:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_forcing

Quote:

Cloud forcing (sometimes described as cloud radiative forcing) is, in meteorology, the difference between the radiation budget components for average cloud conditions and cloud-free conditions.
------------------------------------------------


You forgot the very next sentence from that source you cited:

"Much of the interest in cloud forcing relates to its role as a feedback process in the present period of global warming."

Clouds are considered a feedback by climate scientists, not a forcing. The difference in terminology is important.
2011 should come in well below 2010 and probably 2009, too.

Might be pretty close to 2008. Haven't graphed it yet, just on look.
Quoting Snowlover123:
I have shown with observational evidence that the change in the Cloud Forcing has resulted in 7 w/m^2 being added to Earth's Energy Budget over a 21 year timeframe, compared to CO2 adding 1.4 w/m^2 since 1790 to Earth's Energy Budget. The cause of this change is due to an external factor such as the Solar AA Index inflicting changes upon GCRs rather than temperature.




No you haven't. You've shown evidence from discredited claims and research. Repeating it doesn't make it any more credible.
ScottLincoln - Is it safe to assume your prediction is the IPCC A1 "business as usual" scenario, since that is still the current scenario?

Just want to make sure. Wouldn't want to put words in your mouth.

Edited to fix the scenario name.
Quoting crandles:
Did you consider that if water residence time is around 10 days then cloud residence time is shorter again?


What does Cloud Residence time have to do with Clouds decreasing as a whole since measurements began, and adding several w/m^2 of energy to Earth's Energy Budget while it was decreasing?
The blog comments are messed up...

QUOTE:
Clouds are considered a feedback by climate scientists, not a forcing. The difference in terminology is important.

The Solar AA Index changes----->GCR Flux------>Solar Cloud Feedback.

I know that changes in Cloud Cover are due to a feedback. A solar feedback to be exact. However, the Cloud Forcing is how much energy Clouds will add to Earth's Energy Budget if they were to be subtracted from Earth's Global Energy Flows.
Quoting Seastep:


Just for Nea, I am going to do GISS, too, after this year is over.

Yes, the decade is warmer, but not getting warmer. There is a difference.


Seriously? Why select 1998 as the start? Isnt that, as has been pointed out, rather arbitrary?

A question denialists must always be asking themselves: how can it be warming if it's almost always cooling?

uh-oh
Quoting Snowlover123:


Real Climate is run by scientists, but Skeptical Science is not.

Skeptical Science is run by a cartoonist who has no science degree.


Skeptical Science is run by John Cook. He majored in physics/solar physics during both his undergrad and graduate years.

I attempted to find evidence of him not possessing a degree from those multiple years of schooling, including visits to varying degrees of skeptical and science denial websites and multiple pages of google search results from multiple search phrase choices. However I found nothing other than two comments on blogs, hinting at him being a "failed physics student." Usually failed physics students do not go on to graduate work. When looking at more authoritative sources, like interviews by universities, they refer to him graduating from University of Queensland or being a physicist from the University of Queensland.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Seriously? Why select 1998 as the start? Isnt that, as has been pointed out, rather arbitrary?

A question denialists must always be asking themselves: how can it be warming if it's almost always cooling?

uh-oh


Not arbitrary. There was a clear shift in 1998.

Ignore it if you'd like.
And, again, Nea, the past is irrelevant. The future is what is being predicted.

All that shows is, well, the past. Will it be a predictor of the future? Maybe. Maybe not.
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah, Science trumping Ideology..or the er, "Oz" factor you could say.

There is a Bunker available though..

LoL


Ya'll need a name.

How about "OCCUPY WUNDERGROUND"?


chuckle chuckle snort snort...
Quoting Seastep:
And, again, Nea, the past is irrelevant. The future is what is being predicted.

All that shows is, well, the past. Will it be a predictor of the future? Maybe. Maybe not.

If the past is irrelevant, why'd you bother putting it on your graph?
Quoting Seastep:
And, again, Nea, the past is irrelevant. The future is what is being predicted.

All that shows is, well, the past. Will it be a predictor of the future? Maybe. Maybe not.

I'm jumping into this conversation for a second, and I may be dead wrong, but how is the past irrelevant? The past deals a lot with the future.
There are now 396 Giorni days left till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy yer Sunday.
The "Past" easily shows the area of concern for "Now".


Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.


Global Climate Change Indicators
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center
co2now.org


388.92ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for October 2011
Preliminary data released November 4, 2011
(Mauna Loa Observatory: Scripps Institution of Oceanography)
Quoting Seastep:

Just for Nea, I am going to do GISS, too, after this year is over.

Yes, the decade is warmer, but not getting warmer. There is a difference.



Quoting ScottLincoln:
1. Using monthly timeseries data, it has been found that a 15yr or longer period is required in order to discern the long-term trend from natural variability.
2. Statistical analysis has also shown no evidence for a changed trend since 2000.


Statistical analysis does not include lines you drew on a graph in excel. Statistical analysis, like that done by statisticians, usually includes things like confidence intervals and uncertainty, and analysis of trends from noise.

Using the most recent temperature dataset, Berkely's BEST data, statistician Grant Foster illustrated the uncertainty bars in trends based upon their starting point. For statistical evidence that the trend has changed, the error bars must not include the trend line (red).

Even using 2005 as a starting point, the uncertainty in the data (noise vs. trend ratio) is such that there is no statistical evidence for a changed trend.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 396 Giorni days left till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy yer Sunday.


Oddly enough, there are also 396 regular days till 2012 winter solstice as well.
I'm surely showing my ignorance as I don't have a clue about what "Giorni" days. But they surely do equal earth days. I can read a calendar and do simple math. LOL!
196 regular days?

Best try a real calender dere, sport.

Also a Math tutorial as well.

And maybe try out the comment,er, "Preview" feature as well.

Double er, LoL
Quoting Patrap:
196 regular days

Best try a real calender dere, sport.

And maybe try out the comment,er, "Preview" feature as well.

Double er, LoL



Oops. LOL!
I fixed it. I had a Rick Perry moment there.
Quoting Neapolitan:

If the past is irrelevant, why'd you bother putting it on your graph?


To show the shift.

Here's just 2000-2008, trend only. I'll do 2001-2011 when it comes in. The predictions start in 2000. Haven't gotten around to it since 2008 came in.



Modified: Actually that is 2001-2009. Just forgot to change the heading on that last frame, so it says 2005.
....well least ya can identify the "modify" one.

: )
Quoting ScottLincoln:




Statistical analysis does not include lines you drew on a graph in excel. Statistical analysis, like that done by statisticians, usually includes things like confidence intervals and uncertainty, and analysis of trends from noise.

Using the most recent temperature dataset, Berkely's BEST data, statistician Grant Foster illustrated the uncertainty bars in trends based upon their starting point. For statistical evidence that the trend has changed, the error bars must not include the trend line (red).

Even using 2005 as a starting point, the uncertainty in the data (noise vs. trend ratio) is such that there is no statistical evidence for a changed trend.


You are right. Statistically, it is all within the margin of error. i.e., no change. Even A1, I believe.

Which, again, begs the question, if it is all within the statistical margin of error, how can there be a consensus that spells doomsday?

Anyway. Theory has been posited, now we are observing to see if it holds. It either will or it won't.
I don't make many typos. Nobody is 100%.
Quoting Snowlover123:


What does Cloud Residence time have to do with Clouds decreasing as a whole since measurements began, and adding several w/m^2 of energy to Earth's Energy Budget while it was decreasing?


Because if the perturbation that had hypothetically changed atmospheric moisture went away today, within just a few short days, the moisture content would return to as it was.
For most greenhouse gases, their concentration would remain for decades, in not centuries.

Remember, again, that from your own source the hypothesized cloud reduction added a 7 w/m^2 enhancement to the solar cycle, it was not an addition to the energy budget over a long period as with well-mixed greenhouse gases.

I'm also starting to wonder why you have settled so strongly on "earthshine" as your indirect way of estimating cloud cover, when we have satellites pointed at the earth that can view them directly?
[deleted duplicate post from modified comment]
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
I don't make many typos. Nobody is 100%.


True dat.
Quoting Seastep:
And, again, Nea, the past is irrelevant. The future is what is being predicted.

All that shows is, well, the past. Will it be a predictor of the future? Maybe. Maybe not.


No. The past is not irrelevant. The past helps us predict the future in many ways. It helps us establish the climate sensitivity. It helps us seen what things cause climate to change, and which forcings are strongest. It helps put our current predictions in context by showing what past changes have done to the world and it's ecosystems.
I think the Red Flag will go up soon....
One for "some" to Bookmark,,maybe even read.

Steps of the Scientific Method


Even though we show the scientific method as a series of steps, keep in mind that new information or thinking might cause a scientist to back up and repeat steps at any point during the process. A process like the scientific method that involves such backing up and repeating is called an iterative process.
76 with 90 percent humidity here this morning, highs should be 68, lows should be in 40s. This weather is unreal and for most part we have been way too warm for November.
Gotta run for now.

Lurking can't help myself... WE ALL HAVE OPINIONS you are going to argue about this some of this is rediculous y'all are being fools... Don't lose dignity over this, Remember this, 40 years ago we thought we were having a global cooling. There are a million and 1 factors that need to be looked at an we are probably on number 8, Who knows whats actually going on maybe there are emissions causing it or possible the earth's slightly fluxuating orbit, possibly less volcanic eruptions maybe or how land masses are effectingwind patterns which could cause global heating.... 100 million years ago the land was just so that it actually kept the earth MANY degrees warmer and almost no ice existed even at the poles. You sound like two year olds about this my bet is that in the next 30 years as our technology will advance so greatly that few fossil fuels will be needed get a clue... rant over
ri·dic·u·lous/riˈdikyələs/
Adjective:
Deserving or inviting derision or mockery; absurd.
Synonyms:
ludicrous - laughable - absurd - funny - comical


..er, for the "archive's" here

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
76 with 90 percent humidity here this morning, highs should be 68, lows should be in 40s. This weather is unreal and for most part we have been way too warm for November.


It got down to 78 here this morning. : )
i see we now have 99L

AL, 99, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO,
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have 99L

AL, 99, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 223N, 537W, 25, 1010, LO,

You're a little late there.
20/1145 UTC 23.0N 53.8W ST1.5 99L -- Atlantic
We probably have a tropical storm on our hands right now.

As some users have been advertising for a few days now, there could be a big Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak on Tuesday.





Looking pretty darned good for November in the EPAC...
Wasn't the models protraying two storms to develope?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We probably have a tropical storm on our hands right now.


Looks around midgrade too.
I would put it at 45.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As some users have been advertising for a few days now, there could be a big Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak on Tuesday.


Likely this system will rear its head today.
SPC convective outlooks
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 201738
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
ABOUT 600 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


would this storm eventually affect the Azores
Many of the models continue to make "Tammy" a hurricane.
Anybody have a answer for post 559.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wasn't the models protraying two storms to develope?

They split "Tammy" into two, and develop the split part into something. I don't know if they make it an STS/TS or an Extratropical low though. Many also show another subtropical storm developing from a low pressure area that moves off the coast in 7-10 days.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Many of the models continue to make "Tammy" a hurricane.

12Z GFS 24hrs:

48hrs:

72hrs:

Notice the low to the north of "Tammy", it split from the storm...Is it Vince? Or non-tropical?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

12Z GFS 24hrs:

48hrs:

72hrs:

Notice the low to the north of "Tammy", it split from the storm...Is it Vince? Or non-tropical?

No clue.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Notice the low to the north of "Tammy", it split from the storm...Is it Vince? Or non-tropical?


850mb Theta would suggest it is a extratropical non-mesocale cyclone.

Edit: looking at the Theta a bit closer, it may be subtropical for 12-18 hours...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They split "Tammy" into two, and develop the split part into something. I don't know if they make it an STS/TS or an Extratropical low though. Many also show another subtropical storm developing from a low pressure area that moves off the coast in 7-10 days.

Whatever it is, it hits the UK. Tammy stays the same strength starting from 60hrs through 168hrs.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As some users have been advertising for a few days now, there could be a big Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak on Tuesday.


Wow, pretty much all of Mississippi in it
Quoting yqt1001:


850mb Theta would suggest it is a extratropical non-mesocale cyclone.

Edit: looking at the Theta a bit closer, it may be subtropical for 12-18 hours...

Thanks.
EDIT: Interesting, subtropical for 12-18hrs? We'll see, we could beat 2010.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks.
EDIT: Interesting, subtropical for 12-18hrs? We'll see, we could beat 2010.

I think we'll beat it regardless of whether or not whatever splits from "Tammy" develops.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They split "Tammy" into two, and develop the split part into something. I don't know if they make it an STS/TS or an Extratropical low though. Many also show another subtropical storm developing from a low pressure area that moves off the coast in 7-10 days.
I think if something does split off from Tammy and become it's own entity It'll be an interesting way to get Vince?.My game os on right now.I'll be back later on today.
It's been raining on and off all day.
EP, 13, 2011112012, , BEST, 0, 105N, 1041W, 30, 1005, TD
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm jumping into this conversation for a second, and I may be dead wrong, but how is the past irrelevant? The past deals a lot with the future.


Irrelevant to testing the theory. Very relevant to constructing the theory. That is the stage we are in. Theory has been put forth, now we observe to see if it is a valid one.

If the predictions from 2000 verify as true, then it goes a long way towards solidifying the theory.

While some may accept a theory before it is tested, I do not.

And, as I've always said and all I put forth is just that. Do I lean a certain way? Sure. As others lean the other way. Do I outright discount either way? Nope.

Have to see if it verifies.
Sorry about the late post. I see the convo has shifted.

Had missed that post before.

Carry on.

Don't have a link on this 'puter.

Warm core or cold with 99L?
Remains as TD13-E according to ATCF at 18z update.

EP, 13, 2011112018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1050W, 30, 1005, TD
20/1745 UTC 23.4N 53.1W TOO WEAK 99L -- Atlantic
A strong-looking hybrid-subtropical near-TS strength 50% INVEST low in the open central Atlantic in mid-to-late November! This has to be a rare phenomenon, unless it was common when satellite technology was nonexistant.



Reminds me of TS Peter from 2003.

Thanks Astro.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Is that a naked swirl I see to 99L's south?
I am going through Steelers withdrawal.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Is that a naked swirl I see to 99L's south?


There's quite a few in there. Looks like that one is being pulled in. Moving fast NNE.

Link
Main circ appears to be around 24N/52.5W to me.
Quoting Seastep:


There's quite a few in there. Looks like that one is being pulled in. Moving fast NNE.

Link

They seem to be rotating around a broader center, similar to Lee.
This just in:

EP, 13, 2011112018, , BEST, 0, 114N, 1050W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, M,
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
A strong-looking hybrid-subtropical near-TS strength 50% INVEST low in the open central Atlantic in mid-to-late November! This has to be a rare phenomenon, unless it was common when satellite technology was nonexistant.



Reminds me of TS Peter from 2003.



There lies the question. Whatever 99L develops into, it will be a fish storm. Before satellites, the only reports would have been from ships at sea, and the area that 99L is in has never been a heavily traveled shipping route. Even with ship reports, vigorous low pressure systems in the central and north Atlantic have never been rare as we head for winter. I suspect we'll see more of these late season storms, but only because satellites are showing us things we haven't seen before.
Slow day today...
Quoting sar2401:


There lies the question. Whatever 99L develops into, it will be a fish storm. Before satellites, the only reports would have been from ships at sea, and the area that 99L is in has never been a heavily traveled shipping route. Even with ship reports, vigorous low pressure systems in the central and north Atlantic have never been rare as we head for winter. I suspect we'll see more of these late season storms, but only because satellites are showing us things we haven't seen before.




i wish you guys stop uesing the word fish storm fish storm is olny ues when it gos fully out too sea there may be ships in the way of this
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As some users have been advertising for a few days now, there could be a big Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak on Tuesday.



Indeed. 99L is definitely of secondary importance right now compared to the SPC outlooks for those of us in the southern Plains and the South. So far, it looks like the best chance for spin-up tornados is in the ARK-LA-TEX region, but how fast the front travels compared to how much unstable air we have in place will make all the difference. Right now, the MLCAPE energy isn't too impressive, but we also have no warm air cap in place, which usually limits our lapse rates. Tuesday will be a nailbiter for sure.

BTW, we had a 75 yard wide tornado that had a path of .9 miles, and was on the ground for two minutes last Wednesday. For some reason, Birmingham NWS gave it an EF-1 rating, even though there was no major structural damage done and no injuries. I wonder what the record is for the shortest time on the ground for an EF-1 tornado?
Quoting Tazmanian:




i wish you guys stop uesing the word fish storm fish storm is olny ues when it gos fully out too sea there may be ships in the way of this


Uh...what? What part of "fully out to sea" could the path be that would have a zero percent chance of encountering a ship? Ships have very good weather avoidance radar and computers now and rarely get caught unawares by a storm of any kind. Atlantic shipping regularly travels through much worse storms than 99L is likely to ever be. Fish storm seems to be a reasonably good description of a tropical storm that has little to no chance of striking any land area.
99L certainly looks like a near-tropical multi-vortex cyclonic low. Why are there nearly no discussions out there of vortex meteorology?!

Also, the fish-storm-versus-non-fish-storm-designation-categ ory argument is partly moot. 99L's extratropical low will likely affect the Azores, and offshoots of the greater cyclonic region will likely impact Europe, and later combine with a cross-Atlantic trough from the Caribbean to Sandanavia.



Here's the 12z GFS showing Tammy-B south of the Azores at 228h after Tammy-A tracks through the Azores at 72h.
Quoting Snowlover123:

In his intitial analysis, Spencer used the least sensitive climate models, and the most sensitive climate models, so it is not cherry picking in any given way.

Quote Roy Spencer,

I view my job a little like a legislator, supported by the taxpayer, to protect the interests of the taxpayer and to minimize the role of government "

And all this time, we thought you were a scientist Roy. Weird.

Roy, PLEASE put your toy model down

I doubt he will!

Roy Spencer's six trillion degree warming

Wow. Now that's global warming!
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
1128 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

CAZ071-072-202100-
LASSEN-EASTERN PLUMAS-EASTERN SIERRA COUNTIES-
GREATER LAKE TAHOE AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORTOLA...SUSANVILLE...WESTWOOD...
SIERRAVILLE...LOYALTON...SOUTH LAKE TAHOE...TAHOE CITY...
TRUCKEE...MARKLEEVILLE
1128 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

.NOW...
A NARROW BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE
TAHOE THIS MORNING. THIS NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS LOCATED BETWEEN
HALLELUJAH JUNCTION AND CARNELIAN BAY. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE UNDERNEATH THIS BAND. A SPOTTER ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 IN HALLELUJAH JUNCTION RECENTLY REPORTED 3 INCHES OF
NEW SNOW IN A 90 MINUTE PERIOD. MOTORISTS ALONG HIGHWAY 395 AND
INTERSTATE 80 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS
Just four days away from Thanksgiving, and we've got a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific, and a good candidate in the Atlantic. If the Atlantic storm gets classified, too, anyone know whether there has ever been an active named storm in both basins simultaneously this late into the year?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Just four days away from Thanksgiving, and we've got a tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific, and a good candidate in the Atlantic. If the Atlantic storm gets classified, too, anyone know whether there has ever been an active named storm in both basins simultaneously this late into the year?




this 10 days too go
Tropical Storm Kenneth

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
As some users have been advertising for a few days now, there could be a big Severe Weather/Tornado outbreak on Tuesday.



thats the percentage forecast for wind damage u got there lol
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

...A RARE LATE SEASON TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 105.6W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Rock Hill Tornado Debris Found 20 miles away in Ballantyne
See more info at this site:
Link
This will come back to bite, imo, and is saved. All periods are about 6-10 years. Pay special attention the the last one.

Anyone nervous? ;)

If the trend continues for 30-40 years?

We will find out and there is no rush. The perceived/created rush is the main, general, problem in getting an intellectually honest discussion on the matter.


I find it odd that the EPac pullled this off during a La Nina.
Does anyone know why chemtrails are being released from Air Force planes all over central Texas today?
AL, 99, 2011112018, , BEST, 0, 232N, 532W, 25, 1009, LO,
Quoting wxgeek723:
I find it odd that the EPac pullled this off during a La Nina.


Not as odd as Tropical Storm Omeka

Last year, formed on December 18th.. in the CPAC. Had an eye and everything.

Subtropical then tropical.
611 horsefeather "Does anyone know why chemtrails are being released from Air Force planes all over central Texas today?"

Contrails, not chemtrails
On a unrelated note, does anybody know how to copy & paste a still image from a youtube video?
Quoting interstatelover7165:
On a unrelated note, does anybody know how to copy & paste a still image from a youtube video?


Go into full screen mode. Press "Print Screen" on the keyboard (Prt Sc, Prnt Scr are the more common acronyms for it), load up Microsoft Paint (in the accessories section of the Start Menu program list), go into "Edit > Paste", and finally, save the picture.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
On a unrelated note, does anybody know how to copy & paste a still image from a youtube video?


After 6 years, I still honestly couldn't tell ya..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


After 6 years, I still honestly couldn't tell ya..
I just noticed that..You have been posting here a long time. This next system might throw down some pretty rough stuff on Tuesday. I hope it is not too bad, we are still picking up from past storms in Middle Tennessee.
Quoting Seastep:

Pay special attention the the last one.

Anyone nervous? ;)

You mean the one with the big drop in April/May 2010? The drop which is a based on only 47 stations, all in Antarctic.

It's called cherrypicking and is a well known tactic used by the deniers.

The tactic,

- Cherrypick a very small amount of data during which the short-term noise has dampened the long-term incline

- Ignore the long-term trend

- Refuse to examine the reasons behind the short-term change


Nervous? Are you? ;)
Quoting Tazmanian:




i wish you guys stop uesing the word fish storm fish storm is olny ues when it gos fully out too sea there may be ships in the way of this

Well it is going out to sea..
Unless it hits the azores or something, but the water is way to cold for it to go all the way up there
Tammy is really starting to scare me. She looks potentially as dangerous as Jose.
Quoting lovemamatus:
Tammy is really starting to scare me. She looks potentially as dangerous as Jose.

LOL
Quoting lovemamatus:
Tammy is really starting to scare me. She looks potentially as dangerous as Jose.


Confirmed for trolling.
There is BTW, a grass-roots campaign to get Jose retired...categorized as "The Friendliest Tropical Cyclone on Record". Never hurt a soul, never had a bad word for other, real tropical cyclones. He will be missed.
Quoting lovemamatus:
Tammy is really starting to scare me. She looks potentially as dangerous as Jose.


Don't you mean Cindy, Franklin and Jose combined? That would be a disaster.
Mid 80s and humid here, very warm autumn continues here
Quoting Articuno:

Well it is going out to sea..
Unless it hits the azores or something, but the water is way to cold for it to go all the way up there

It'll still affect them, doesn't matter if it's warm or cold-core by the time it reaches them.
Also, lovemamatus is a troll. Ignore it before they think you're a troll for responding to his/her/it's comments.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Don't you mean Cindy, Franklin and Jose combined? That would be a disaster.
Yep, its been a one-storm season of 19 storms.

What do you think of a Romney/Avila ticket for President?
This could be trouble in about a week..
how is this possible?

Hurricane Francene 1971
Duration July 18 – July 23
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min), 991 mb
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
how is this possible?

Hurricane Francene 1971
Duration July 18 – July 23
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min), 991 mb


The environmental pressure around the storm must have been very high.
608 Seastep "If the trend continues for 30-40 years? We will find out and there is no rush.
The perceived/created rush is the main, general, problem in getting an intellectually honest discussion on the matter.
"

There's a grease fire on the stove. Will this trend continue through the kitchen to beyond? We will find out in 3-4 hours and there is no rush.
The perceived rush is the main, general problem in getting an intellectually honest discussion on the matter. Unfortunately, most folks would say it'd be smarter to smother the flames before the conflagration envelops the rest of their home.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
how is this possible?

Hurricane Francene 1971
Duration July 18 %u2013 July 23
Intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min), 991 mb

What source is this? XD
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What sorcery is this? XD


not a very reliable one... wikipedia
that just caught my attention
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It'll still affect them, doesn't matter if it's warm or cold-core by the time it reaches them.
Also, lovemamatus is a troll. Ignore it before they think you're a troll for responding to his/her/it's comments.

My bad.
I just thought the "troll"'s sarcastic comment was funny.
Down to 40%. Strangely, it's convection has gotten deeper and it's center has become slightly better defined than earlier.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not as odd as Tropical Storm Omeka

Last year, formed on December 18th.. in the CPAC. Had an eye and everything.

Subtropical then tropical.


Yeah but the CPac does have a rep for oddities...but the EPac tends to stay in check.
Removed
Quoting Articuno:

My bad.
I just thought the "troll"'s sarcastic comment was funny.
Sorry. I forgot that no humor is allowed. I remember 3 yrs ago Dr. Masters told the one about the Priest, the Rabbi, and the Tropical Forecaster....and HE got banned!!!!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Down to 40%. Strangely, it's convection has gotten deeper and it's center has become slightly better defined than earlier.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

1.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.
2.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.
and 3.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.

No clue what he is seeing, as it goes against the current situation the models' predictions.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What source is this? XD

Its from the 1970s, and the storm didn't come near land. So, the pressure was lower than indicated here, or the winds were lower than indicated here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.
2.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.
and 3.) I don't like when Berg does the TWO.

No clue what he is seeing, as it goes against the current situation the models' predictions.

You can say that again.
Quoting Articuno:

You can say that again.

I don't like when Berg does the TWO.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Down to 40%. Strangely, it's convection has gotten deeper and it's center has become slightly better defined than earlier.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN
NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY
SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


maybe cuz the environment around it has become less conducive? NHC did mention 'marginal' conditions, so that might be it
Quoting SPLbeater:


thats the percentage forecast for wind damage u got there lol

No it isn't.
99L is in an area of about 20-40kt wind shear from the west...next few hours forecast to decline slightly. Mid-level shear aint no problem. Very dry air to its S, SW, W. othet then these things i dont see an issue with 99L. other then the 7 PM outlook needs changing to 50% lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No it isn't.
your right. i hadnt looked at it other then the categorical outlook. you showed the probabilistic outlook, for probability of seeing severe weather within a 25 MILE POINT. lol. sorry my bad there:)
649. j2008
20/2345 UTC 23.6N 52.5W EXTRATROPICAL 99L -- Atlantic
Well this is a new development.......so it went from STS to TOOWEAK and now to EXTRATROPICAL, I guess 99 wants to visit all the types.
Quoting SPLbeater:


maybe cuz the environment around it has become less conducive? NHC did mention 'marginal' conditions, so that might be it

Subtropical Storms can develop even when there's high shear.
Quoting Seastep:
This will come back to bite, imo, and is saved. All periods are about 6-10 years. Pay special attention the the last one.

Anyone nervous? ;)

If the trend continues for 30-40 years?

We will find out and there is no rush. The perceived/created rush is the main, general, problem in getting an intellectually honest discussion on the matter.


Why in the world would I be worried if temperatures leveled off or even dropped slightly in the next 30-40 years?

...I'd be glad if anything.

No one ever claimed they know the future, all we have right now are climate models which are currently predicting that we will continue to warm. What we can say is that we have been warming and contributing.
Lower-Level winds

Upper Level winds

Shear Tendency
Quoting Snowlover123:
I have never heard anyone claim that warming temperatures would LOWER the Dew Point. Could you explain the mechanism in order for this to occur?
You haven't?

I suppose that claim is not entirely true, but the basic concept is a warmer atmosphere can hold more water, therefore when the atmosphere is warmer, relative humidity drops and so do dew points. The reason why this isn't necessarily true, however, is that when the atmosphere is warmer more evaporation occurs putting more water in the atmosphere.
Good Night everyone, 99L is giving me a headache.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


GCRs = galactic cosmic rays. Some research has suggested that galactic cosmic rays from the sun may help form clouds. But the mechanism by which this happens is not direct, and several things must happen.
1. GCRs must help form aerosols, then
2. The aerosols must grow to a size that is suitable as cloud-condensation nuclei
3. The condensation nuclei must then form cloud droplets.

Having condensation nuclei does not necessarily imply clouds will form. Some parts of the globe are saturated with nuclei, yet no clouds form due to insufficient moisture. Most GCRs also do not make it through the atmosphere.

The hypothesis is that increased cosmic rays lead to more cloud cover (cooling) and decreased cosmic rays lead to less cloud cover (warming). As one can see, several things must line up for this to work for clouds in a particular area, let alone the entire globe. It should also be noted that studies have shown very little trend in GCRs over the last several decades, and the slight trend found in some studies has actually been toward more GCRs (cooling) - the opposite of what would be required to cause the observed temperature changes.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/a-detailed-look-a t-galactic-cosmic-rays.html

For GCRs to be the dominant driver of climate change over the last several decades, proving the GCR mechanism would not be enough. One would also have to invalidate multiple lines of evidence from up to a century of research showing that greenhouse gases regulate the earth's temperature, and the dominant driver of climate today is greenhouse gases.
Thanks Scott, haven't heard of the GCR thing before
Quoting Seastep:
Please, Scott, show me how it is not true that there has been no significant temp increase since 2000.

Are you asserting otherwise?
It's climate change, not 2000 to 2011 temperature change.

Try and take your own advice by using the "scientific method" for once. Embarrassing.

Quoting Seastep:
Bedtime.

Scientific method. Observe.
Quoting Grothar:


Hello, Grothar.

I see that you are honing your painting skills. Just remember that Pottery does not like you painting the yellows and reds around his area. ;-)
Ugg...Doing my online X-mas shopping. Put in your requests now.
Kenneth is likely intensifying.

Link
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ugg...Doing my online X-mas shopping. Put in your requests now.


Good! Glad you stopped by. Uh, I will take a dose of sanity with a side order of patience. Rare, please. I will finish cooking it myself.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Hello, Grothar.

I see that you are honing your painting skills. Just remember that Pottery does not like you painting the yellows and reds around his area. ;-)


I heard he told the same thing to van Gogh!
Quoting Ameister12:
Kenneth is likely intensifying.

Link
agreed, it looks waaay better than it did this time last night
-- --
Quoting Grothar:


I heard he told the same thing to van Gogh!


Yes, and this is exactly why van Gogh cut off his own ear! He was not going to listen to such nonsense. Critics! They are everywhere!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ugg...Doing my online X-mas shopping. Put in your requests now.


its spelled Christmas for a reason:)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ugg...Doing my online X-mas shopping. Put in your requests now.


I didn't know Walgreen's delivered.
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know Walgreen's delivered.


They will deliver it to the front counter, if you pretend you cannot find it.
Quoting SPLbeater:


its spelled Christmas for a reason:)


its is spelled it's for a reason. Merry Christmas!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


its is spelled it's for a reason. Merry Christmas!
lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


its spelled Christmas for a reason:)



X has been used for a long time. You might enjoy reading this.

Link
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know Walgreen's delivered.


I was thinking more of the Dollar Store.
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know Walgreen's delivered.
I didn't know the Salvation Army delivered
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


its is spelled it's for a reason. Merry Christmas!


ever notice the first part of Christmas? CHRISTmas? if it wasnt for Christ's human birth we wouldnt have Christmas. so saying x-mas is like removing Christ from your holiday. and thats not a good thing to do, considering he gifted you with your very breath:D
Quoting Hangten:



X has been used for a long time. You might enjoy reading this.

Link


i dont need a link telling me about the word x-mas. look at comment #674 and it will tell you everything =P
Quoting SPLbeater:


i dont need a link telling me about the word x-mas. look at comment #674 and it will tell you everything =P


Then perhaps you better look up the history of the word first before you embarrass yourself any further.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I was thinking more of the Dollar Store.


By the way, Happy ThanXgiving!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ugg...Doing my online X-mas shopping. Put in your requests now.


I'm doing my shopping too. It stayed low budget for a while then something came along haha
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132011
700 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011

...KENNETH STRENGTHENING BUT MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST OF
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


could Kenneth make it to major hurricane... so far it looks impressive and it will keep strengthening
....
Quoting SPLbeater:


ever notice the first part of Christmas? CHRISTmas? if it wasnt for Christ's human birth we wouldnt have Christmas. so saying x-mas is like removing Christ from your holiday. and thats not a good thing to do, considering he gifted you with your very breath:D


Christ was not even born on December 25, so why dont you look that up!
Quoting SPLbeater:


its spelled Christmas for a reason:)

I myself prefer "Dies Natalis Solis Invicti".
Quoting Hangten:


Then perhaps you better look up the history of the word first before you embarrass yourself any further.



ik what it means. its an abbreviation for Christmas, that doesnt show how Christmas came to be
Quoting WDEmobmet:


Christ was not even born on December 25, so why dont you look that up!


Hey! We don't let facts change things in here.
Bringing religion up in a weather blog just sounds wrong, don't you think?
Quoting Neapolitan:

I myself prefer "Dies Natalis Solis Invicti".


What is that, your futuristic alien language?
Not at all trying to change anything just trying to educate one who might otherwise be uneducated
Quoting SPLbeater:


you are clearly not familiar with holidays concerning Christ. if Christ wasnt born that day, then Christmas wouldnt exist. Easter is the third day when Christ rose again after being crucified, 30-some years after he was born into human form on earth(Christmas)


you need a history lesson.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Not at all trying to change anything just trying to educate one who might otherwise be uneducated


Sorry, I was using sarcasm, I was supporting you :)
FYI... I am a Christian, a Catholic at that. I am in no way denying that Christmas is focused around Christ, just merely stating that he was not actually born on that day, thats all. No disrespect I mean no harm
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


What is that, your futuristic alien language?

Only if by "futuristic" you mean 1,700 years ago, and if by "alien" you mean Latin. (The short version: it was an ancient pagan ritual that celebrated the winter solstice, and took place near the end of December. The Catholic Church felt threatened by paganism, so they usurped the holiday, and declared it to be Jesus' birthday. [Pretty much the same thing happened at Easter, a holiday named after an ancient goddess of the dawn.])
Lol I know VA, thanks for the support
Quoting Neapolitan:

Only if by "futuristic" you mean 1,700 years ago, and if by "alien" you mean Latin. (The short version: it was an ancient pagan ritual that celebrated the winter solstice, and took place near the end of December. The Catholic Church felt threatened by paganism, so they usurped the holiday, and declared it to be Jesus' birthday.)


Yeah, ive taken 7 years of latin. Its a really interesting story how they involved the tree later in the history of the story.
Quoting WDEmobmet:
Lol I know VA, thanks for the support


Anytime! :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


Christs earthly birth is unknown, tho Christmas is ASSUMED his birthday on earth as a child. i hope the one who started me in defending the Lord just now gets my point, my view, and the facts


Fair enough, thats better.. I apologize to corrupting the blog
Does this mean we can't use the Xtrap model anymore?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you need a history lesson.


A huge history lesson.
Quoting Hangten:
Does this mean we can't use the Xtrap model anymore?



You can use the Christrap model however.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, ive taken 7 years of latin. Its a really interesting story how they involved the tree later in the history of the story.


the Christmas tree comes from the bible
Quoting SPLbeater:


the Christmas tree comes from the bible

No. It's a pagan thing, too. From the ancient festival of Yule.
Quoting SPLbeater:


the Christmas tree comes from the bible


Now I can confirm you have never read the bible.
Grothar...You were around then...Tell us how the holiday known as Christmas came to be.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



You can use the Christrap model however.


bodum chuuuhh
and the hits keep coming...
Quoting SPLbeater:



i already gave the facts if you choose to ignore my comments go ahead. i told this to KoritheMan also. ignore Christ, and you will regret it one day


Will you give up the preaching already!!!!!!! Holy crap, this has gotten to be so annoying.
Quoting caneswatch:
Bringing religion up in a weather blog just sounds wrong, don't you think?


CaneWx, I agree with you completely. Discussing religion and other faith based topics on a science site should be considered rather off-topic. Still, everyone insists on discussing AGW in here like it was fact or something.
Quoting SPLbeater:



i already gave the facts if you choose to ignore my comments go ahead. i told this to KoritheMan also. ignore Christ, and you will regret it one day


god help us all...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


god help us all...


Quoting caneswatch:


Will you give up the preaching already!!!!!!! Holy crap, this has gotten to be so annoying.


i am sorry if i have gone far with Christ. but i would stand up for Christ as long as i live. resume weather talk:)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar...You were around then...Tell us how the holiday known as Christmas came to be.


I would, but it was told to me in Aramaic. It's been a long time since I spoke that one.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i am sorry if i have gone far with Christ. but i would stand up for Christ as long as i live. resume weather talk:)


God wouldn't want you spreading lies either.
Quoting Grothar:


I would, but it was told to me in Aramaic. It's been a long time since I spoke that one.


Google-ը ձեր ընկերն է.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Google-ը ձեր ընկերն է.


Id rather not...
Is it time to post Brenda Lee, Burl Ives or Rick Astley?
By popular vote, Burl Ives win...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
By popular vote, Burl Ives win...



No! No! We wanted Brenda Lee!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Thanks, Geoff! I forgot to tell you that we had a silent vote. ;-)
Kenneth making landfall in baja cal?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Only if by "futuristic" you mean 1,700 years ago, and if by "alien" you mean Latin. (The short version: it was an ancient pagan ritual that celebrated the winter solstice, and took place near the end of December. The Catholic Church felt threatened by paganism, so they usurped the holiday, and declared it to be Jesus' birthday. [Pretty much the same thing happened at Easter, a holiday named after an ancient goddess of the dawn.])
Interesting, thanks Nea
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Kenneth making landfall in baja cal?
uh no...

Forecasted to go out to sea

Quoting TomTaylor:
uh no...

Forecasted to go out to sea



No no no. Remember what we talked about regarding certainty in weather forecasting? ;)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Now I can confirm you have never read the bible.


You mean like most Christians?
Hey ya'll

Checking in on 99l;

Fight nice this eve - good night and good luck.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No no no. Remember what we talked about regarding certainty in weather forecasting? ;)
Oh I know lol

key word in that post was "Forecasted" lol

It's forecasted to go out to sea, will it actually?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Now I can confirm you have never read the bible.
Is that really a bad thing though?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Is that really a bad thing though?


If he wants to defend his faith, yes.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Oh I know lol

key word in that post was "Forecasted" lol

It's forecasted to go out to sea, will it actually?


You said:

"Uh no"

;)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE
GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE LOW COULD GRADUALLY ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You said:

"Uh no"

;)
well he said "making landfall" as in the present tense meaning it's making landfall now...which it isn't doing lol

Quoting KoritheMan:


If he wants to defend his faith, yes.
Ah right, wasn't really paying attention to the conversation, just saw that comment
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Is it time to post Brenda Lee, Burl Ives or Rick Astley?


Holly Jolly Christmas would be nice ... btw Brenda rocks - g'nite

Quoting TomTaylor:

Ah right, wasn't really paying attention to the conversation, just saw that comment
I did get a kick out of your comment, though. ;)
Quoting TomTaylor:
Is that really a bad thing though?


Never a bad thing, even though you don't believe something doesn't mean you shouldn't learn why other believe it.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Never a bad thing, even though you don't believe something doesn't mean you shouldn't learn why other believe it.
true true, I wouldn't read the entire bible to learn why though lol

Quoting KoritheMan:

I did get a kick out of your comment, though. ;)
glad someone did, didn't want to offend anyone although it was slightly offensive

Quoting TomTaylor:
true true, I wouldn't read the entire bible to learn why though lol

How much of the Bible have you read, Tom?
December 3rd..south-east snow?

Quoting Walshy:
December 3rd..south-east snow?
Wishful thinking. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:

How much of the Bible have you read, Tom?
I read the title...and that's about where I stopped
Quoting TomTaylor:
I read the title...and that's about where I stopped


I take it you've never believed in god then? I started off Christian but became atheist three years ago.
Also, if anyone gets the wrong idea, I'm not trying to start debate, I'm just talking. Religion is one of my biggest interests, after all.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I take it you've never believed in god then? I started off Christian but became atheist three years ago.
Well I believed in God when I was young but from about middle school on (6 years ago) I became atheist, or I guess agnostic (not denying the possibility that something is out there). I think both my parents started off as Catholic when they were young but the presence of religion in their lives faded as they aged and my Dad is an atheist now, so I never went to church.

As far as religion, I like that it gives people something to believe in, something to have faith in, something to give them hope, but I can't stand most other aspects of it. The wars its caused, the control over the people through fear (fear of hell), the hypocrisy of it all, the fact that it has significantly prohibited scientific progression, the fact that it has very little basis in reality and was literally invented by man all annoy me.

As long as one is happy and not annoying me or others, I will respect their religion. If they try and force their viewpoints on others or deny science through religion, I will be quite annoyed.
Funny pic, not 100% accurate, but it has some truth to it


Quoting TomTaylor:


As long as one is happy and not annoying me or others, I will respect their religion. If they try and force their viewpoints on others or deny science through religion, I will be quite annoyed.
Hehehe, try living in a family full of Christians.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hehehe, try living in a family full of Christians.
Sorry that response above was a little heated, I'm pissed at my little brother right now so it was kinda coming through in that post. I don't hate religion as much as it may seem in that post.

That sounds rough though, what made you become a non believer?

Quoting TomTaylor:

what made you become a non believer?
Questions that couldn't be answered. That, and I've naturally been predisposed toward skepticism anyway. In hindsight, I never really was that serious with my faith, save for about a year in 2004. After I became an atheist, I was fiercely against religion (not just Christianity). I softened up after that, and although I still consider myself fairly mellow, I definitely despise religion now. Odd how much in circles I went.

Sorry to hear that about your brother.
The reason I believe in god is because there is no explanation where everything came from. I understand and believe the big bang theory, I am a physics major after all, but until someone can explain how something can come from nothing, I have to believe that it is from somewhere, from something. However I do hate the fact that some people say if you are a christian you can't believe in evolution. or modern science like string theory/ quantum mechanics. That's stupid, you can obviously do both Newton and many other famous founders of physics were very religious.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
The reason I believe in god is because there is no explanation where everything came from. I understand and believe the big bang theory, I am a physics major after all, but until someone can explain how something can come from nothing, I have to believe that it is from somewhere, from something.
Yes, but that leads to infinite regression. What caused god, etc.?

Besides, I'm much more comfortable reviling in (or at least accepting) my ignorance regarding the universe than I am needlessly attributing it to a god or some sort of deific force. Ignorance is not an excuse for the whole "god of the gaps" leap.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Questions that couldn't be answered. That, and I've naturally been predisposed toward skepticism anyway. In hindsight, I never really was that serious with my faith, save for about a year in 2004. After I became an atheist, I was fiercely against religion (not just Christianity). I softened up after that, and although I still consider myself fairly mellow, I definitely despise religion now. Odd how much in circles I went.

Sorry to hear that about your brother.
lol it's cool now he was just being a lazy toad trying to get me to do his chores since he thought I did nothing today...but oh wait, I worked 9hrs today busing tables (if you've ever done it, you'd know it's a lot of work-physical work), woke up 3 hrs before him and I didn't get home until after 1am last night.

Anyway, yeah it was my Dad who mostly instilled a sense of atheism in me, but I also had unanswered questions. I also despise organized religion, although I try not to show it much because I know it's offensive to people and I wouldn't want a religious person pestering me because I don't believe.

There are still facts though...ie, religion was invented, religion has allowed the few to control the many, and it has also been the root for countless wars, scientific advancement has been impeded by religion, list goes on
I would rather believe something, then just have no theory. For me thats god, for you, i don't know. Believing in something that can't be proven doesn't mean you are ignorant, meanw you have faith. Why can't there be a god? Wouldn't the logical thing be to believe in it? If you are wrong the same result will happen to your body as if you are an atheist. If you are an atheist and your wrong, then what happens?
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol it's cool now he was just being a lazy toad trying to get me to do his chores since he thought I did nothing today...but oh wait, I worked 9hrs today busing tables (if you've ever done it, you'd know it's a lot of work-physical work), woke up 3 hrs before him and I didn't get home until after 1am last night.

Anyway, yeah it was my Dad who mostly instilled a sense of atheism in me, but I also had unanswered questions. I also despise organized religion, although I try not to show it much because I know it's offensive to people and I wouldn't want a religious person pestering me because I don't believe.

There are still facts though...ie, religion was invented, religion has allowed the few to control the many, and it has also been the root for countless wars, scientific advancement has been impeded by religion, list goes on


I was a server, and loved my best bussers. It was great, getting the good bussers means more tables turned means more tip money. Sometimes I would give them some of my tip money on top of the percentage they are already cut, you guys make us more than we ever could on our own :D
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
The reason I believe in god is because there is no explanation where everything came from. I understand and believe the big bang theory, I am a physics major after all, but until someone can explain how something can come from nothing, I have to believe that it is from somewhere, from something. However I do hate the fact that some people say if you are a christian you can't believe in evolution. or modern science like string theory/ quantum mechanics. That's stupid, you can obviously do both Newton and many other famous founders of physics were very religious.
Problem is who made God then. I guess you could say he made himself, there's no real counter to that except that it makes no sense lol. Also, what is the proof that there is a God?

Either way, I can't explain where the Big Bang came from nor can I prove that there is a God, therefore I chose to be agnostic - recognizing the potential for him to exist but not believing in a God.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I was a server, and loved my best bussers. It was great, getting the good bussers means more tables turned means more tip money. Sometimes I would give them some of my tip money on top of the percentage they are already cut, you guys make us more than we ever could on our own :D
Cool to see another person from the restaurant business, though I'm guessing you are no longer in it.

And the bold is true lol, the bus boy is the middle man, we do everything in between. Although when I get to waiting tables I'm going to try my best to take people's orders and get them their checks as soon as possible. Those are the two things I get requested most from people and where the most room for time cutting is in my opinion.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Cool to see another person from the restaurant business, though I'm guessing you are no longer in it.

And the bold is true lol, the bus boy is the middle man, we do everything in between. Although when I get to waiting tables I'm going to try my best to take people's orders and get them their checks as soon as possible. Those are the two things I get requested most from people and where the most room for time cutting is in my opinion.


I only stopped because of college ill do it again next summer. Yeah the main thing you should remember, is that when people ask for their checks its usually because they need to leave. Either to get to a show, or maybe a babysitter's at home. So always do that, and always greet and take order right away, people are much more understanding if you keep checking it, refilling drinks etc. if the kitchen is a little behind. One other thing, try and make small talk but what youll come to realize is that the serious ones who didn't come to talk to you and just want good service are the ones that tip the most.

Well there is my coaching tip of the day... lol.
What restaurant do you work at?
One thing I do know is that it isn't turtles all the way down.
After accepting that fact, it isn't possible to come to a point describing the "beginning" other than "I can't explain."
Where did God come from?
Where did the singularity come from?
At some point, no one can avoid saying "I don't know."
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I only stopped because of college ill do it again next summer. Yeah the main thing you should remember, is that when people ask for their checks its usually because they need to leave. Either to get to a show, or maybe a babysitter's at home. So always do that, and always greet and take order right away, people are much more understanding if you keep checking it, refilling drinks etc. if the kitchen is a little behind. One other thing, try and make small talk but what youll come to realize is that the serious ones who didn't come to talk to you and just want good service are the ones that tip the most.

Well there is my coaching tip of the day... lol.
What restaurant do you work at?
Thanks for the tips, lookn forward to my daily tip tomorrow :p lol

And I work at Claire's on Cedros, my aunt's (Claire's) restaurant, its a breakfast and lunch place in Solana Beach, California, which is a pretty nice part of San Diego county so food is a little more pricy.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks for the tips, lookn forward to my daily tip tomorrow :p lol

And I work at Claire's on Cedros, my aunt's (Claire's) restaurant, its a breakfast and lunch place in Solana Beach, California, which is a pretty nice part of San Diego county so food is a little more pricy.


dads military i loved san diego... was the best place on the tour. when will you get to serve?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


dads military i loved san diego... was the best place on the tour. when will you get to serve?
yeah its nice here in San Diego, when did you leave here? I probably won't be serving until summertime since right now I can only work weekends with school going on.

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wouldn't the logical thing be to believe in it?
See Occam's Razor.

Quoting TomTaylor:
there's no real counter to that except that it makes no sense lol.
This is another problem I have with religion: many of its claims are inherently unfalsifiable. I mean, my family says demons can heal others in religions outside Christianity in order to deter people from god. What am I supposed to say to that? Then when I can't refute it, they claim victory. A bit irritating, but more amusing now that I'm used to it.

Quoting SWFLgazer:

At some point, no one can avoid saying "I don't know."
Okay, what's your point?
Quoting KoritheMan:

This is another problem I have with religion: many of its claims are inherently unfalsifiable. I mean, my family says demons can heal others in religions outside Christianity in order to deter people from god. What am I supposed to say to that? Then when I can't refute it, they claim victory. A bit irritating, but more amusing now that I'm used to it.


Everything in the realm is unfalsifiable, its just as unfalsifiable to prove there is no god. it works both ways.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah its nice here in San Diego, when did you leave here? I probably won't be serving until summertime since right now I can only work weekends with school going on.


2001, just in time for my dad to be in the pentagon when it was hit...

BTW he's okay, didn't mean to send out the wrong message.
My religious beliefs and opinions aside, I have noticed over the years that trying to argue reason with someone that is basing their decision on something other than reason to be a frustrating and ultimately counterproductive endeavor: The arguing just results in a stronger irrational belief. The more foolish the belief, the stronger the urge to justify it. The first chapter of just about any social psychology text usually covers this. And, while this is frequently notable in religious and political contexts, it is present in even such mundane, everyday contexts as the weather. *cough*
99L to 60%.
Why the special TWO for Epac???
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 21 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHEASTERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THAT WINDS TO NEAR GALE-FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW IS NOT WELL-
DEFINED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

The record cold temperatures continue in Fairbanks today, with a low of 36 below at 3 a.m., three degrees colder than it was on this date in 1969.

The coldest high temperature on this date is 19 below, a figure that the National Weather Service says is jeopardized by the chilly conditions. The low Thursday was 41 below, also a record.

This is the third day of record cold for Fairbanks for this time of year, though the temperatures are not close to the all-time records which occur in December and January, the coldest months of the winter.

The weekend forecast is for more cold weather, but the low temperatures could zoom up to 25 below to 30 below by next week.


Well this should influence the ice pack that has disappeared for the last several years.
That monkey will be in danger if this keeps up!
I'm getting hammered by a pretty nasty storm this morning.
Quoting KoritheMan:

See Occam's Razor.


Thought he was more going for a Pascal's Wager angle overall.

Anyway I'm surprised. Americans talking about Christmas and not one mention of Festivus?

Disappointed.

"As long as one is happy and not annoying me or others, I will respect their religion. If they try and force their viewpoints on others or deny science through religion, I will be quite annoyed."

Agreed. Fundamentalism though is the problem in that, not religion. Atheism suffers from the same problem (fundamental atheists are just as annoying).
Kenneth did a nice bit of rapid intensification. Looks to be approaching hurricane strength atm.
Well, I believe that I found the LLC for 99L...



53W, 26N
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON

SAB/TAFB came back at hurricane strength with Kenneth at 1145 UTC.

21/1145 UTC 12.7N 109.2W T4.0/4.0 KENNETH -- East Pacific

ADT is holding at Kenneth's current strength (65 mph):

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.0mb/ 55.0kt
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON



It seems that Kenneth took advantage of a small dry air slot and has been building an eyewall around it. True/False?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


It seems that Kenneth took advantage of a small dry air slot and has been building an eyewall around it. True/False?

True.
ATCF says Kenneth is a hurricane:

EP, 13, 2011112112, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1091W, 65, 992, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 15, 1010, 175, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

---and 99L is picking up wind speed while shedding pressure:

AL, 99, 2011112112, , BEST, 0, 273N, 517W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
HURRICANE KENNETH:

The season's (1..2..3..4..5..6..7..8..9)..9th hurricane. Will it become the season's 6th major hurricane???

I think it will come close.

Go Kenny!


Who'd a thunk it?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The season's (1..2..3..4..5..6..7..8..9)..9th hurricane. Will it become the season's 6th major hurricane???

I think it will come close.


PINHOLE EYE???
lol jk
Quoting Walshy:
December 3rd..south-east snow?

Why not like a week or two later?
(dec 12th is my b-day)
Morning everyone!

First time poster, very long time lurker. It is unbelievably muggy here in Houston this morning. I had to remind myself that this was November not May! :) I am very much looking forward to the cooler weather that will be headed our way in the next day or so.
Somebody say 'peak coffee'? Oh god, it's real...

LET'S get straight to the point. It's time to start preparing for the day you either can't afford, or worse, can't find ... good coffee.
An alarming piece that popped up on the internets in the past week has office workers wondering how they're ever going to make it through a day in a world without coffee.
Here's the theory: the price is being driven up, the author of the article, Zac Stone, writes and will continue to be driven up until the world's most prized bean will become a luxury item.
Driven up by "weather events, pest and fungus outbreaks, speculation on commodities exchanges, an unstable labor market in the developing world, and an unprecedented thirst for good coffee among a growing global middle class".
"The problem," Stone says, "is that supply has gone down and demand has gone up."


Supply has gone down? If you think that sounds like something to do with global warming, you'd be right.
The plant that produces the prized arabica bean in particular is notoriously fussy, relying on a range of corresponding conditions such as altitude, microclimate and consistent rain/dry spells to produce high quality beans.
Stone reports that those few areas which are suited to growing such beans (read "Colombia") are experiencing record rainfall, heatwaves and pest plagues.
As the climate warms, the devastating "coffee rust" disease is invading the Colombian altitudes best suited to growing arabica, whilst increased heavy rains destroy the blossoms before they can give birth to the beans.
And the mountains are only so high, Stone writes.
The result over the past three years would make any coffee fashionista cry into their cold-pressed - a drop in yields from 12 million bags to 7.8 million.
It's been 33 years since Colombia's produced such a poor result.
Other coffee-producing regions around the world also have their problems, says Stone.
"Global stockpiles are close to record lows," he writes, before casually lobbing in the words nobody ever hoped to hear.
Yes folks, we are approaching "peak coffee".
It could happen as soon as the next drought hits Brazil, agricultural scientists Peter Baker told Stone, as a tolerant, drinkable breed of bean would take at least 10-15 years to produce.
"In the long run, people will have to get used to drinking a bit less coffee,” Baker says.
Stone's fears are borne out in part by a report back in February from a UN commodities catch-up in which the executive director of the International Coffee Organisation was issued with a "please explain" over the rising cost of Arabica.
“The coffee market is being driven much more by fundamental supply factors than by investors," Jose Sette said.
"The shortage is in arabica, and arabica is going up.”
It doesn't bear thinking about, but if you think you can stand it, read more here.
Could be one heck of a severe wx outbreak this weekend. GFS and CMC have been consistant with this. Perfect setup for tornadoes!





These tornadoes could be very large and devastasting. I know it's a holiday weekend but this is something that bares watching. I've been saying this since early last week about this weekend's potential and the models seem insistant on this however the Euro on the 0Z doesn't show this set up as all the models show.





As Drought Continues, Depleted Texas Lakes Expose Ghost Towns, Graves


Published November 20, 2011

Oct. 5, 2011: A child's grave site, normally at least 20 to 30 feet underwater, has joined other remnants of old Bluffton, Texas, resurfacing on the now dry, sandy lake near Bluffton, as the Texas drought shrinks the state's largest inland lake.

BLUFFTON, Texas – Johnny C. Parks died two days before his first birthday more than a century ago. His grave slipped from sight along with the rest of the tiny town of Bluffton when Lake Buchanan was filled 55 years later.

Now, the cracked marble tombstone engraved with the date Oct. 15, 1882, which is normally covered by 20 to 30 feet of water, has been eerily exposed as a yearlong drought shrinks one of Texas' largest lakes.

Across the state, receding lakes have revealed a prehistoric skull, ancient tools, fossils and a small cemetery that appears to contain the graves of freed slaves. Some of the discoveries have attracted interest from local historians, and looters also have scavenged for pieces of history. More than two dozen looters have been arrested at one site.

"In an odd way, this drought has provided an opportunity to view and document, where appropriate, some of these finds and understand what they consist of," said Pat Mercado-Allinger, the Texas Historical Commission's archeological division director. "Most people in Texas probably didn't realize what was under these lakes."

Texas finished its driest 12 months ever with an average of 8.5 inches of rain through September, nearly 13 inches below normal. Water levels in the region's lakes, most of which were manmade, have dropped by more than a dozen feet in many cases.

The vanishing water has revealed the long-submerged building foundations of Woodville, Okla., which was flooded in 1944 when the Red River was dammed to form Lake Texoma. A century-old church has emerged at Falcon Lake, which straddles the Texas-Mexico border on the Rio Grande.

Steven Standke and his wife, Carol, drove to the old Bluffton site on a sandy rutted path that GPS devices designate not as a road but the middle of the 22,335-acre lake, normally almost 31 miles long and five miles wide.

"If you don't see it now, you might never see it again," said Carol Standke, of Center Point, as she and her husband inspected the ruins a mile from where concrete seawalls ordinarily would keep the lake from waterfront homes.

Old Bluffton has been exposed occasionally during times of drought. The receding waters have revealed concrete foundations of a two-story hotel, scales of an old cotton gin, a rusting tank and concrete slabs from a Texaco station that also served as a general store. The tallest structure is what's left of the town well, an open-topped concrete cube about 4 feet high. Johnny Parks' tombstone is among a few burial sites.

Local historian Alfred Hallmark, whose great-great-great grandfather helped establish Bluffton, said his research showed 389 graves were moved starting in 1931 when dam construction began. That's the same year Bluffton's 40 or 50 residents started moving several miles west to the current Bluffton, which today amounts to a convenience store and post office at a lonely highway intersection serving 200 residents.

Residents had to leave their ranches and abandon precious pecan trees, some of which produced more than 1,000 pounds of nuts each year. "It was devastating," said Hallmark, 70, a retired teacher, of the move. "They had no choice."

Other depleted lakes across Texas are revealing much older artifacts. More than two dozen looters have been arrested at Lake Whitney, about 50 miles south of Fort Worth, for removing Native American tools and fossils that experts believe could be thousands of years old.

The Army Corps of Engineers, which oversees Lake Whitney, is patrolling a number of areas that contain artifacts, including some rock shelters once filled with water, said Abraham Phillips, natural resources specialist with the agency.

At Lake Georgetown near Austin, fishermen discovered what experts determined was the skull of an American Indian buried for hundreds or thousands of years. It's not clear what will become of the skull, said Kate Spradley, a Texas State University assistant anthropology professor who is keeping it temporarily in a lab. Strict federal laws governing American Indian burial sites bar excavations to search for other remains.

No such restrictions exist for the nearly two dozen unmarked graves discovered this summer in a dried-up section of a Navarro County reservoir. Some coffin lids are visible just under the dirt. Crews plan to excavate the site about 50 miles south of Dallas and move the remains to a cemetery, said Bruce McManus, chairman of the county's historical commission. He said the area of Richland-Chambers Lake is on property formerly owned by a slave owner.

"This is a once-in-a-lifetime find ... and maybe the only silver lining in the ongoing drought," McManus said
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lol, well, Kenneth's rapid intensification was not expected at all, even though all the other storms have done it.

Sarcasm Flag: ON



Tropical cyclone rule number 1 - Expect the unexpected.
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.
There are now 395 Giorni Days till the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
interesting read over the last couple hundred comments.. well, sort of..

peak oil is one thing, plentiful alternative natural resources abound... but NOT PEAK COFFEEE!!!
i'm planting my own tree today!
i hear i should have a couple pounds by the end of the year :P
UN: Concentrations Of Greenhouse Gases Hit Record (NPR)

"GENEVA (AP) — Global warming gases have hit record levels in the world's atmosphere, with concentrations of carbon dioxide up 39 percent since the start of the industrial era in 1750, the U.N. weather agency said Monday.

The new figures for 2010 from the World Meteorological Organization show that CO2 levels are now at 389 parts per million, up from about 280 parts per million a quarter-millenium ago. The levels are significant because the gases trap heat in the atmosphere.

- - - - - - - - - -

The WMO said the increase of 2.3 parts per million in CO2 in the atmosphere between 2009 and 2010 shows an acceleration from the average 1.5 parts per million increase during the 1990s.

- - - - - - - - - -

Since 1750, WMO says, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have risen 39 percent, those of nitrous oxide have gone up 20 percent and concentrations of methane jumped 158 percent.

Its report Monday cites fossil fuel-burning, loss of forests that absorb CO2 and use of fertilizer as the main culprits."


Full article
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.
That is one sharp trough...
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I'm sure Reed and his comrads are watching this set up. As they maybe making a trip back to Miss & Ala.


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well, I believe that I found the LLC for 99L...



53W, 26N



hmmm, i was thinking more around 51.2, 27.8 for an LLC and the center you pointed out is a small vorticy spinning around it. but, of course, everything is possible lol
Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.


purty sure he means Reed Timmer, Joel, and Chris lol. have you read his book?
Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.
Lol...Probably Reed Timmer.
Seems someone may have thought,,well..,


"nevermind"

Quoting reedzone:


Me and my comrads? I think you may be referring to someone else, I don't chase after storms, I track them at home, unless they are in my city.


This Reed.
Hmmm...Is that a Batmobile by Reed?
Could he be?!!...
Quoting Chicklit:
Hmmm...Is that a Batmobile by Reed?
Could he be?!!...


That's funny. I was thinking the same thing!