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Extreme Weather: a book review

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on January 15, 2008

If you're looking for a U.S. and world weather record book, there is none finer than Chris Burt's Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book (Climate Change Edition). His fantastic new second edition comes complete with full weather records for over 300 U.S. cities, plus over 100 photos of some of the most beautiful and amazing weather events of all time. Also included are historical examples of bizarre weather events such as heat bursts, electrified dust storms, snow rollers, pink snowstorms, luminous tornadoes, falls of fish and toads, ball lightning, and super lightning bolts. My two favorite extreme weather stories are also included--the tale of the farmer in Kansas who watched as a tornado lifted off the ground and passed directly over him, and the story of the Marine Corps pilot who bailed out in the midst of a severe thunderstorm and lived to tell about it.

While the book focuses mostly on the U.S., there is a good amount of detail about weather extremes world-wide. Many of the book's 47 maps and 65 tables and graphs show where weather extremes occur world-wide. The graphics are clear, colorful, and easy to understand (with only one minor exception, a plot of storm surge heights from the 1970 Bangladesh cyclone that was very difficult to interpret). There were a few minor errors I caught, such as the use of the term "El Nina" instead of "La Nina", giving 1" hail as the criteria for a severe thunderstorm (it is 3/4" hail), and the table for the Saffir-Simpson Scale having a number 1 mph off for the definition of Category 5 storms. However, the author maintains a web site, extremeweatherguide.com, where one can report errors and new records that need to be added to the book for the next edition.

A few remarkable facts I learned from Extreme Weather:

Perhaps the most extraordinary rain event in world history occurred in the unlikely location of Smethport, Pennsylvania. An incredible 28.50" fell in just three hours during a July 18, 1942 thunderstorm. All told, 34.30" fell in a 12-hour period. No such rain intensity has been recorded anywhere in the world. The resulting floods stripped hillsides in the Smethport area to bare rock and killed 15 people.

An F5 tornado completely destroyed the Texas Panhandle town of Glazier on April 9, 1947, leaving only one damaged structure standing. The town was never rebuilt.

Twenty inches of snow fell on Houston, Texas February 14-15, 1895. Brownsville got six inches, and snow was reported all the way down to Tampico, Mexico--the southernmost fall of snow at sea level ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.

Climate change
The book bills itself as the "climate change edition", but there is very little information on climate change in the book. The discussion on heat waves brings up the role of climate change, and two pages in the introduction discuss if weather is becoming more extreme. Burt presents a nice analysis of the temperature and precipitation records for the U.S. to show that there has been a an increase in extreme heat and intense precipitation events since 1990. However, the decade of the 1930s had more temperature extremes than any other decade. The book's strength is its focus on extreme weather, and I'm pleased that Burt limits his discussion of climate change to just a few pages.

Extreme Weather: A Guide and Record Book is $15.57 from amazon.com. Four stars out of four.

Jeff Masters

Book and Movie Reviews

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great read Dr. Masters, very interesting...
Very interesting.

This reminds me of a book I received when I was very young, "It's raining cats and dogs" which depicted intense and strange weather events from all over the world.



dr m did you do a blog about some in like this like a week or two a go this blog look like the same has the blog you did two weeks a go
Alienating a large group of potential book readers (buyers) wouldn't be a smart thing to do when pushing a new book. Keeping the man-made global warming hoax out of the book was a good idea.
Does the book discuss the phenomena behind the extreme weather events - i.e., what conditions existed that came together to cause 28 inches of rainfall in 3 hours?
FLBlake,

Climate change sells. That's why it's on the cover.
A few days ago, on his blog TierneyLab for the New York Times, John Tierney made the statement that a truly extraordinary year in weather would be one in which a weather record of some kind, somewhere in the world, wasn't broken. Is this true? Does anyone know of such a year?
cool
One must wondor why it bills itself as the "climate change edition" if it has very little reference to climate change. Sounds like a ploy to use the cover to try to sell more copies. But wait, isnt that what MMGW is all about, a ploy.
On the subject of extreme weather

Today's forecast: Northern Brooks Range, Alaska

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON...
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 35 BELOW TO 50 BELOW.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. WIND CHILL TO 70 BELOW.
Now thats COLD!
Of course there's also perhaps the coldest location in the northern hemisphere, Ojmjakon, Russia

Forecast:

Wednesday
Scattered Clouds. High: -59° F. / -51° C. Wind light.
Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -68° F. / -56° C. Wind light.
Thursday
Overcast. High: -61° F. / -52° C. Wind light.
Thursday Night
Overcast. Low: -65° F. / -54° C. Wind light.
Friday
Overcast. High: -63° F. / -53° C. Wind light.
Friday Night
Overcast. Low: -77° F. / -61° C. Wind light.
Saturday
Partly Cloudy. High: -72° F. / -58° C. Wind light.
Saturday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -77° F. / -61° C. Wind light.
Sunday
Overcast. High: -72° F. / -58° C. Wind light.
Sunday Night
Overcast. Low: -81° F. / -63° C. Wind light.
Monday
Partly Cloudy. High: -72° F. / -58° C. Wind light.
Monday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: -77° F. / -61° C. Wind light.
Thanks Dr. Masters,28.5 inches in three hrs,It must have been like stepping under a water fall.
sw,thats pretty amazing,I notice wind is always light,its even too cold to move the air.
Yeah, -81°F is pretty amazing.

I certainly wouldn't want to experience anything like that...lol
Good morning,

Looks like some more rain for our area on Wednesday evening and Thursday morning...........



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
419 AM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THURSDAY)...BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
STILL...BROOKSVILLE IS DOWN TO 35 AND A FEW LOCATIONS IN
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY ARE IN THE UPPER 30S. THE CLOUDS ARE A BIT
THICKER TO THE SOUTH..SO MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ARE COMMON. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES...BASICALLY CLOSE TO OUR
FORECAST LOWS. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH...BUT LOWER
TO MIDDLE 30S MOST OF THE NATURE COAST ON SOUTHWARD. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FROST WHERE TEMPERATURES CAN DROP
INTO THE MID 30S. WINDS AWAY FROM THE COAST RANGE FROM CALM TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY...SO THE EXPECTED WIND CHILL PROBLEMS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.

THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT NORTH AND WEST WITH THE GULF LOW...WHICH
IS GOOD NEWS FOR OUR AREA. THAT SHOULD KEEP THE WORST OF THE HAZARDS
OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE`LL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. THE RAIN IS MUCH NEEDED ACROSS MOST OF OUR
AREA...BUT THE HEAVIEST WILL FALL OVER LEVY COUNTY WITH DECREASING
AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD SOUTH. CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES MAY SEE VERY
LITTLE RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR THE DETAILS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HANG IN THERE TODAY WITH MAINLY
CIRRUS CLOUDS DIMMING THE SUN. WILL WORD AS PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...
BUT DON`T BE SURPRISED IF THE CLOUDS REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
IT MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN STORE TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE
FOR THE NATURE COAST AND NORMALLY COLD SPOTS IN EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH
AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES. LOOK FOR LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE
COLDEST AREAS OF THE NATURE COAST...WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ALL THE
WAY DOWN TO NORTHEAST CHARLOTTE COUNTY.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE GULF LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. SOME RAIN MAY BREAK OUT OVER THE
NATURE COAST BUT THE HEAVIEST SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL STAY DRY.

THE GULF LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THE NATURE COAST AGAIN...BUT
MOST OF OUR REGION COULD SEE RAIN BY MORNING.

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NATURE COAST THURSDAY
MORNING WILL TAPER OFF BY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS
INTO LEVY COUNTY. SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WITH THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY LIFTING
AWAY FROM THE REGION...EXPECT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO DECREASE
AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. THERE`S EVEN SOME CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA TO EXPERIENCE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LEAD
TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WE PREVIOUSLY HAD FORECAST...SO
RAISED MAX TEMPS TO BE CLOSE TO BOTH MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS
ACROSS THE U.S. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THE SAME OVERALL FORECAST...
BUT TIMING ISSUES CONTINUE AND WILL GO WITH A BLEND. THEREFORE...
WILL NEED TO ADD RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO NOW STALL OUT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND THEN PUSH SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY AS NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
DELAY THE RETURN OF THE COOLER DRIER AIR AND HAVE THUS RAISED
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT A FEW DEGREES.
COOLER DRIER AIR SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT FAST NEAR ZONAL FLOW
WILL SETUP BRINGING SOME MORE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE
DAY.




thanks FSU.

WE`LL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE ON THURSDAY
...BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED.

That was the first I heard about that!
Hehe, Don't you love Alaska :D

The state cold record here is -80...coldest ever in North America, but yes Russia gets colder. They can't beat our wind chills though :) I've seen it down to -130 wind chills on the north slope.
We can always use some rain here in Florida so I'm looking forward, in the Florida Big Bend/Panhandle, to the rain....Hope that you get some of that moisture in Central Florida as well.........Interesting to see this type of activity (Springlike rains) in the middle of January down here, but, the more rain we get over the next few months, the less of a pollen issue we will have going into March and April (in North Florida the pollen was pretty bad last year because of the lack of rain and the "belief" of the trees they were going to die from lack of water, thus, prompting excessive amounts of pollen accumulation and release).....Here's hoping that the SE Conus gets lots of rain this coming Spring to alleviate any pending water/draught issues which may emerge (and the wildfire danger) later due to dry conditions and the lack of significant tropical moisture which helps us increase the water tables............
It sounds crazy, but I'm kinda wishing the Low would stall till the artic air hit here in SW Louisiana, wouldn't mind a few snow flakes falling.
23. P451
That campeche storm is looking pretty neat.

A good look at its evolution

Just scroll the mouse back and forth over the timeline at the bottom to loop the images yourself.
afternoon, all! Got my 14th snow...might be #15 too...the snow ended before morning and restarted after daybreak, so I have to check with other area snow counters to see if they agree that this is #15 today.
So far theres about 6+ inches on the ground and its still coming. Driving is horrible like driving on brown sugar.
Hey Folks. Got more snow last night 2.5 inches to be exact.

wow Lake 15 snows we have or 6th or 7th.. have to look at my notebook.

Thanks for the book review Doc. Going to have to go to the store later. Might be a new coffee table book.
yeah bone, most of the snows were just enough to count.No serious accumulations. This one is certainly more substantial. 4" last night and another 2+ today. Since I posted that last one we've gotten another 1/4 inch. They are expecting totals to range from 9-12 inches. Still havent gotten the one snow that lasts for days yet.(every year theres at least one)..maybe Thurs/Friday through the rest of next week...lol!
good afternoon, seems like an interesting book
Hey,Lake your heading toward 25-30 snows at this rate.
I'm projecting 34-36 snows this year.
bbl. gotta shovel.
:oP
Have fun Lake,did my share yesterday
Looking at the models. Looks like a whopper showing up for next friday.

GFS 240hrs:


Bone,forcasters don't seem to be building up the storm too much,
this fridays No. Neither do I. It appears to be too warm. Looks like a rain event with snow/mix interior sections that usually get the snows during Nor'Easters.

The chart i just posted was for next friday Jan. 25.
LOL it self updated when the new runs came out LOL.. appears not now.

HAHAHA oh well.
lol,thats pretty funny how a major storm shows up and then disappears.
Afternoon All,
Speaking of books, how many of you have ever read The Great International Disaster Book. Published sometime in the 70's. I must have read through that thing a hundred or more times. It's what originally got me interested in hazardous weather and disasters.
41. IKE
Coastal Flood Watch

Statement as of 2:01 PM CST on January 15, 2008

... Coastal flooding possible in southeast Louisiana and coastal
Mississippi...

... Coastal Flood Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Slidell has issued a coastal
Flood Watch... which is in effect from Wednesday morning through
Wednesday evening for Waveland Mississippi to the western and southern
portions of lakes Maurepas... Pontchartrain and borgne... to near
Port Fourchon Louisiana.

An area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over the
western Gulf of Mexico today. This low pressure area is then
forecast to move northeast across the northwest Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night and Wednesday... reaching the southeast Louisiana
coastal waters Wednesday afternoon. This low will interact with a
large and retreating area of high pressure over the eastern United
States resulting in the development of gale force winds across the
coastal waters Wednesday.

Strong east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts near 40 mph may
start to impact coastal sections of southeast Louisiana to the
west of the Mississippi River Delta late toward daybreak
Wednesday. These strong winds are then expected to spread
northeast toward the Mississippi coast by midday on Wednesday.
Tide levels are expected to increase rapidly Wednesday due to a
combination of the strong winds and rising astronomical tides.
Water level rises of 2 to 3 feet are possible from the
astronomical low tide levels early Wednesday morning to high
tides Wednesday afternoon. This increase may cause flooding of low
lying coastal areas... outside of the levee protection
system... from Waveland Mississippi to the western and southern
portions of lakes Maurepas... Pontchartrain and borgne... to near
Port Fourchon Louisiana.

All persons in the coastal area should be ready to take action to
protect life and property and move to higher ground. Remain alert
and keep listening to your radio... television... or NOAA Weather
Radio for updates.

A coastal Flood Watch means that conditions favorable for
flooding are expected to develop. Coastal residents should be
alert for later statements or warnings... and take action to
protect property.
This one will be fun to track...SW Pacific Ocean

43. IKE
Bay of Campeche buoy#42055.....

"5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.1 °F"
The center already becoming clearly defined

big cold snap for most of the USA and may be ca has well
well this stinks... my company just blocked wunderground with websense >8(

I can only view it by using quota time. So my blogging will drop way off now.

Sorry folks.
I'm back everyone. You can see the storm system taking shape in the Bay of Campeche.
Keep counting them Lake. We had a squall go through around noon and coated the ground but melted as soon as it stoped.

Thanks for the information on the book. I heard about the 28.5 inches in Smithport, PA and it sounds like your in a tropical area. Actually for those that are not familiar, Smithport is in Northwestern, PA bear Bradford, PA near the headwaters of the Allegheny River. Must have been one big storm.
Excellent curve band pattern 0.40 arc

T# 2.0

Interesting low in the subtropical central pacific

46. Bonedog 4:25 PM AST on January 15, 2008
well this stinks... my company just blocked wunderground with websense >8(


why?....WU seems to be a productive website.
The system looks interesting now but it is looking more uneventful for the northeast as the models show dramatic weakening of the system as it rides along the east coast. It should be rather eventful for the Southeast bring much need rain to drought stricken areas. Also a trailing surface cold front will keep temperatures near average or slightly below average though the weak. No wintry precip for the lower elevations is expected as 850mb temps below the freezing mark will be confined to the northeast.
The BOC low is forming i see, It most likley wont form because 1) its January, and that about says it all.
54. CybrTeddy 8:50 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
The BOC low is forming i see, It most likley wont form because 1) its January, and that about says it all.


Not looking for tropical or subtropical development. More along the lines of baroclinic development.
Good afternoon everyone!

If anyone hasn't viewed my ''tropical weather questions'' on my blog yet, you can view them here.
hey storm...did u see mine answers?
neva mind
would you like some questions?
Looks like this system could give some much needed rain to the SE
91P was designated as Tropical Depression Ten-F

Tropical Disturbance Summary will be issued later today for more information.
61. NEwxguy 9:06 PM GMT on January 15, 2008
Looks like this system could give some much needed rain to the SE


Yes. Alot of moisture stream from the pacific by the jet stream and an upper level low. The models are showing a rather impressive low in the Gulf. Possibly the potential for some servere weather the upper level energy and the convergence at the surface.
Beautiful NexSat shot.
Doesn't really look like a lot of moisture to me. Hope I'm wrong. I live in this drought stricken area.
Look at the radars from and Lousiani its alot of moisture. You can go here for a close up scroll around.
Link
Winter Storm watch for the foothills and piedmont of N.C.
60. Weather456 5:03 PM AST on January 15, 2008

would you like some questions?

Yes, is it ''tropical weather related?''

stormdude77, I will email u the answers

Name three tropical wave models and give 2 characteristics of each.

How many degrees do a tropical cyclone have to be within an upper trough over the Eastern CONUS to recurve?

What is the TUTT and how does help build and kill tropical cyclones?

List 5 features of a tropical cyclone transitioning to extratropical.

What is the difference between the monsoon trough and the ITCZ?

What is the best level to track a tropical wave.

List some tools use to track tropical waves other than numerical models.

Explain why some tropical cyclones move in a stair-step motion.

Explain why some tropical cyclones loop.

How does Saharan Dust affect tropical cyclones.

What is the significance or importance of the warm-core column of a tropical cyclone?

What is the most aewsome tropical cyclone of all time?

Hope these help.

also u can post a myth or fact questions?

Is it true that moderatey sheared tropical cyclones intensify faster that tropical cyclones over 0 units of vertical wind shear. Why?
another interesting one....how do tropical cyclones kill themselves.
Ok, Thanks W456, these look fairly good...
cool
Here's a good one:

What causes each hurricane to have a different maximum wind speed for that given minimum sea-level pressure?

storm, yeah thats a good one. I saw that alot in 2006.
it seems as though everywehere China goes...pollution follows. Nasa had to shift one of its satellites becuz China sent a missile to destroy one of its satellites creating a slew of deadly impact objects. A spec would prove fatal to Nasa space assets but some of the debris was brick size. there is now about 12000 debris objects (from memory) in near earth space.
Where did you get that news 456? I'd like to know more.
I heard it on BBC radio (link)
storm if ur still there...here's an interesting


How do a TC transfer heat energy to kinetic energy?
In a ''strong'' hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy produced is equal to that being dissipated is due to interaction with the earth/surface.
In a ''strong'' hurricane, the amount of kinetic energy produced is equal to that being dissipated is due to interaction with the earth/surface.

yep.....tropical cyclones rule
Yay thanks Dr.Masters another book for my bookshelf of weather!:)
Tropical Invest 91P/TD 10F Update 2 (Revised)

Issued 2130 UTC JAN 15 2008 by W456

Tropical depression located near 15.5S-163.0E, movement stationary. Estimated surface winds are 25-30 knots and estimated pressure is near 1001 mb. Wind shear is 10-15 knots and SSTs are 85F.

Center (LLCC) fix was placed on the focal point of all curve cloud bands seen on Dvorak enhanced infrared imagery, and the elongated center seen on convectional visible imagery and microwave imagery. QuikSCAT and ship reports indicate the depression/invest is producing winds well above gale force and Dvorak classifications done agreed - T# 2.0. Minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) was based on surface observations also. The depression looks very impressive on satellite imagery with excellent intense curve bands occupying more that half an arc* around the cloud system center (CSC). A well define upper anticyclone also caps the depression. Environmental conditions are favorable for development and most Global models take the system towards the southeast then southwest in response to the SPCZ and subtropical ridge.

By W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC 25kts-1004mb-157S-1630E.


Weather456...thanks for the link to the China horror reported on BBC. Not too much coverage of it in US.
Anyone have the latest track for the moisture in the Gulf Of Mexico? Showing it all the way to the eastern sea board?

88. P451
Here ya go, Northx

Link

Again, mouse-over the time legend at the base of the image (scroll your mouse back and forth to 'loop' the images as you please)

As others have said, the newest runs are definitely tamer for the North East. Still seems to have the potential for a good snow storm for the Carolina mountains and for Vermont/NH/Maine
Nice map P451.
Thanks for the links. Going to be very intresting thursday morning! 32degree snow or 33 degree rain? Caint wait. Last update leaned on the snow greatly.
An elongated but well define tropical cyclone

Updated Information on TD 10

A TCFA has been issued.

Maximum Sustain Winds are near 30 knots extending outward 42 nmi.

Warm-core between 9-13 km.

Dvorak and Kinetic energy approaching T2.5

95. JLPR
hey guys got a lot of pics on my wunderphotos
and a recent Approvers Choice one =D
JLPR's Wunderphotos
Thanks in advance to anyone that decides to see them and rate them =D
The Australia Day Challenge
Internationl Rugby League Match

Date: 26 January 2008
Location: Hodges Stadium, University of North Florida
Audience:10,000 Rugby League fans from around the globe
Contact (904) 536-7501 or www.australiadaychallenge.com

Two of the best International Professional Rugby League teams are set to clash in the USA for the first time. The South Sydney Rabbitohs (Australia) will for the first time play the Leeds Rhinos (England) in an international Rugby League match held in the USA. Jacksonville's very own American National Rugby League team
the Jacksonville Axemen are kindly helping host the teams while they are in Jacksonville and are organizing all ticket sales.

These guys wear no padding no helmet and only 17 player per team(13 players on the field at one time), no stop action.....this is the real man's game. Anyone in Jacksonville go out and have a look and tell me what ya think. If you want to see more video follow this linkhttp://www.nrl.com/BigPondVideo/Multimedia/tabid/262/Default.aspx
Cheers AussieStorm
all ways ues the word Please
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F ADVISORY NUMBER ONE
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression Ten-F [998 hPa] located near 15.4S 163.4E and is reported as slow moving. Position FAIR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Imagery with Animation and Peripheral Surface Observation. Sea Surface Temperature around 28C. Convection has increased within the last 12 hours due to diurnal variation with cloud bands becoming well organized. Cyclonic circulation is more low-mid level with low shear aloft. However, minimal shear over the system as indicated by CIMMS.

10F lies to the east of an upper diffluent region. Most global models have picked up the system with ECMWF and UK models deepening the system early and maintaining a southeast movement. The system is close to becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 12-24 hours.

Low level circulation is still obscured by convection aloft. Dvorak intensity based on MET and Pattern type, Thus T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS. Convection wraps 0.45 on LOG10 Spiral Yielding a DT of 2.5
SPECIAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR VANUATU
Issued at 4.36am UTC 16Jan
------------------------------------

Tropical Depression 10F [997 hPa] located near 14.7S 163.6E as of 0300 UTC. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery with animation. Tropical Depression moving north-northeast at 8 knots with expected sustained wind near the center to be 30 knots. Near Gale-Force Winds within 180 mile from the center possibly reaching Gale-Force within the next 24-48 hours.


The clouds organization around the system continues to improve with good banding from the northern flank. Low level circulation is still obsured by convection aloft.

Dvorak Intensity based on MET and Pattern Type, Thus T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS. Convection wraps 0.45 on LOG10 Spiral yeilding A DT of 2.5. TD10 is located to the east of an upper outflow therefore maintaining a low shear over the system

On its projected track, the depression is expected to deepen and intensify further and most global models move the system northeast before it tracks southeast. The cloud bands associated with this depression is expected to bring further heavy rainfall onto the the northern parts of Vanuatu with squally thunderstorms

Very rough to high seas expected over northern Vanuatu waters and damaging heavy swells.
Dang! Sorry to hear it, Bonedog!!

Come by whenever you can.
We'll miss having you here more often.
JLPR ~ Nice pics!

Did you know that Bougainvillea is an antidote for Rose of Jericho?
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA ADVISORY NUMBER TWO - Upgraded to Category One System
==========================================
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS ENFORCED FOR NORTHERN VANUATU

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa Category One [990 hPa] located near 14.4S 164.8E is reported moving east-northeast at 10 knots but expected to turn east then southeast in the next 24 hours. Position POOR based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observations. Maximum 10 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 to 40 knots increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 to 18 hours.

Gale-Force Winds within 120 mile from the center

Organization past 12 hours improved significantly with convection about center cooling markedly as well. Spiral bands wrapping low level circulation center. Outflow good to north and developing to east and south. Shear decreasing over system and along forecast track. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region and steered eastward by deep layer mean monsoon west to northwest flow.

Dvorak Intensity based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 Spiral yielding a T3.0. PAT=3.0, MET=2.5, Thus T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS.

Global models generally agree on further intensification and east to southeast movement

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.2S 167.0E 45 knots [Cat 1]
48 HRS: 17.2S 172.4E 60 knots [Cat 2]

Tropical Cyclone Funa (10F)/Tropical Cyclone 12P Update 3

Issued 1000 UTC JAN 12 2008 by W456

Tropical Depression 10F was upgraded to Tropical Cyclone Funa located near 15.0S-165.0E moving slowly towards the east. Estimated surface winds are near 40 knots with a minimum central pressure of 995 mb. Wind shear is 10-20 knots and SSTs are 85F.

Center fix was based using Dvorak analysis of the tropical cyclone, which place the center at the cloud system center (CSC). Based on QuikSCAT and infrared channel 2 imagery, the low level circulation center (LLCC) has become a lot more define producing winds of 30-40 knots extending outwards 25 nmi. Dvorak classifications place the system at CI 2.75, which corresponds to 40 knots and 995 mb. This seems appropriate for a tropical cyclone of this level of organization. However, raw Dvorak numbers reached CI 3.0. The moderately sheared tropical cyclone continues to gain organization, producing bands of vigorous thunderstorms. The cyclone has good ventilation in the upper levels causing the core to warm (warm-core) and expand. In addition, the kinetic energy being release is slowly increasing. The tropical cyclone will continue towards the east, threatening the northern islands of Vanuatu, then recurve back southwest under the influence of a transitory anticyclone.

by W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC 12P FUNA.35kts-996mb-151S-1646E

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO

A storm system is producing increase wind, wave and shower activity across the Southern United States and Gulf of Mexico north of 25N. This is associated with a developing storm system with a warm front extending from 1004 mb low at 27N-96W to the Western Tip of Cuba. This storm lies within the left entrance region of a ridge over the Eastern CONUS, thereby strong divergence aloft leading to the formation of moderate to strong convection north of the low and front. Additional debris moisture in the form of mid-upper level cloudiness and widely scattered showers is seen spreading from the Bay of Campeche to South Florida. Moreover, the warm front is accompanied by a broad zone of stratiform clouds and showers. These clouds are not readily identified in infrared satellite imagery as they are being masked by higher clouds.

by W456
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A stationary front continues from the warm front at the Western Tip of Cuba, through the Central Bahamas and along 26N/70W 30N/60W 34N/50W. The associated prefrontal surface trough lies along 36N/65W-30N/75W. Due to significant amount of dry air south of 33N, narrow bands of shallow cloudiness accompany these features. Mid-Upper level cloudiness is invading the area west of 75W and this should continue to expand the Gulf of Mexico storm system progress northeastward. Fair weather dominates elsewhere.

by W456
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Strong west southwesterly winds dominate the upper levels of the atmosphere. ROABS from Kingston, Jamaica and water vapor imagery also show abundant dry air in the mid-upper levels. Thereby, shower activity remains limited or non-existent. The trades have increase somewhat due to the interaction of mid-latitude flow with the highest velocities along the Colombia Coast. The trades are advecting patches of shallow clouds/showers just west of the Islands and banking them along the Central American Terrain. High cirrus clouds are seen rotating around the SAMS’s anticyclonic flow from central Venezuela to the Windward Islands to the Tropical Atlantic.


By W456
107. IKE
Windy in the GOM....

Buoy 42020......

"Updated: 4:50 AM CST on January 16, 2008
Air Temperature: 59 F
Humidity: 89
Wind direction (W Dir): North (355 - 4 Degrees)
Wind Speed (W Spd): 29.2 kts (33.6 mph)
Wind Gust (W Spd): 36.9 kts (42.5 mph)

Dominant Wave Period (DWP): 10 sec
Dominant Wave Height (DWH): 16.08 ft
Dominant Wave Range (DWR): exactly 16.1 ft
Wind Wave Period (WWP): 10 sec
Wind Wave Height (WWH): 16.40 ft
Wind Wave Range (WWR): 15.58 - 17.22 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (AP): 29.77 in
Pressure Tendency (PT): 0.03 in
Increasing, then steady; or increasing, then increasing more slowly"
Just over a half of inch of rain in the New Orleans area. It started raining around midnight last night.

Light North wind and no lighting.
Atmosphere appears cold enough there won't be severe weather.
Good morning folks...........Overcast and light drizzle in the Florida Big Bend region this morning.................We need the rain..
Hey. Check out this nice little "waterspout" to the
left there...



I really don't know if this is a waterspout or
just a rainshaft that looks like one. But it's
still an interesting feature. What do you think?

Bill
IslandPondRR, I believe that is the center of the low pressure area.
113. P451
Neat. It's like a miniature localized cold front. Shows up nicely on vorticity as just a wind shift - don't see any rotation with it - probably has some nasty wind gust with it though.



You can fill in the blank (purple) area with your imagination.

The line of thunderstroms is the starting of a cold front off the low.
Good morning Ladies and Gents,


Looks like all the potential for severe action will be just my north over the Jacksonville, Florida area........
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: Astatula FL
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
437 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-162100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
437 AM EST WED JAN 16 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND REGION LATE TONIGHT. DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING
ATMOSPHERIC LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THERE IS A VERY
LOW BUT DISCERNABLE THREAT FOR A FEW STRONGER AND ROTATING STORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.
Good morning all. I hope that strong line of thunderstorms in the GOM holds together and moves through Florida bringing some much-needed rainfall here. Any chance that that occurs? Thanks.
117. P451
Nah, CCH, looks like the storm is going to blow itself out before it gets there. Only the panhandle will get it.

FSU MM5 81 Hour total precip


cloud precip overlay mouse over the time legend at the bottom to see the progression.

Just looks like this storm rains itself out and as it heads northward up the coast it's looking as weak as ever now. A little energy brought in by that meandering low near the great lakes energizes it briefly for VT,NH,ME.

This storm's legacy is the heavy rain along the gulf coast. Everything I look at has it weakening.
We have had a little light rain so far, although we will get a lot more. It sounded as if the rain was mixed with a little sleet against the windows, although I didn't see it. It is hard to see how there could really have been sleet, since the temperature was in the low 50s and the dewpoint was in the upper 30s when the rain started--I'm not sure how evaporational cooling could have frozen raindrops. But it sure looks like we will get our first good long soaking rain for a long, long time.

The pressure here fell by 2 mb in the last hour, and it is quite windy.
Take a look at this impreesive line of thunderstorms out in the Gulf of Mexico. Im just hoping this holds together and moves over Florida.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Re extreme rainfall events:
How it is reckoned depends on the time scale. The US record for short-term intensity was, I believe set at Unionville, MD when 1.23" fell in 60 seconds, for a rate of 1,828 mm/hr (I am not well informed on this point, but I think that corresponds to about Level 10 on the radar.) By contrast, the highest rate associated with the Smethport storm (perhaps a mesoscale cyclonic complex?)I have heard is about 185 mm/hr, although it was a much bigger event in terms of total rainfall. I dare say that when the remnants of Camille dumped up to 46 inches of rain in 6 hours on Nelson County, Virginia, some high rates could have been recorded, too. The world record? It depends upon what you believe. The wildest story I have heard is a description of a long-ago storm in England, which allegedly dumped something like 20 inches of rain in 7 minutes (4,350 mm/hr?!!) I can only imagine what that would be like. Perhaps it would smash your umbrella if you tried to walk out in it...
122. P451
It looks awesome. Hard to say why it would not hold together but all of the models suggest it won't. Not that they are the end all or anything as we learn time and again.

It just seems that as the low lifts northward out of the gulf and into the panhandle of Florida and beyond to the North East that the energy sustaining that line lifts north rapidly with it and dissipates.

Looks like it will just be a line of showers when it crosses the peninsula.


It has been sprinkling in north central florida all day.
Nice new picture Dr. Masters!
The forecast flyer for Gainesville shows Saturday with rain and 29 degrees. Does that mean SNOW or not?!!
good afternoon all
12P has an excellent structure

Good afternoon 456. Whats up? See you've been tracking this rather lopsided, yet extremely organized TC Funa. Weird name if you ask me, but looks quite impressive.
Here is the latest IR imagery of the cold front sweeping through the GOM. The line of showers and thunderstorms seems to have expanded further south, yet the impreesive convective burst seen earlier has waned somewhat.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
yeah CCH I am doing good...you?.....the cyclone is moderately sheared giving it the shape. Funa - Tuna.....lol
I'm doing pretty good myself. Just a bit tired today. My new kitten keeps waking me up during the night since she has to sleep in my room because the other older cats are still not comfortable with her around them. Pain in the butt if you ask me.

I haven't had too much time to continue studying the Dvorak technique now that classes have started back up again, but I will be ready when storms develop this upcoming hurricane season. Thanks again for all the resources.
Just took a look at the computer models and it seems like the Southeast will get a few more systems like the one currently impacting the region over the next couple weeks. Great news there. I also see a powerful front slamming through Florida late next weekend into early the following week. It looks like the Southeast will be under a very active weather pattern which usually would be bad news, but it is great news now. Anyone else picking this up?
Taking a look at satellite imagery, it looks like this storm's main moisture fetch is not from the GOM, but the Pacific Ocean. Looks like another low will form out in the Pacific and travel behind this one.
132. JLPR
101. listenerVT 6:18 AM GMT on January 16, 2008
JLPR ~ Nice pics!

Did you know that Bougainvillea is an antidote for Rose of Jericho?

Umm sorry I logged off =P
but no I never heard that =) One learns something new everyday =D
and thank you
Jl
Heat Lows/Troughs: Australia

Heat lows or troughs are a prominent climatological feature of many arid land areas of the world during the warmer months, especially in low latitudes where insolation is at its peak, for example in western Australia. They are shallow disturbances, generally confined below 700 mb. Heat troughs are important for day-to-day weather forecasting as they influence the location of regions of low-level convergence, which in turn are likely places where convective storms will be triggered if the converging air happens to be sufficiently moist.

Heat Lows/troughs form above surfaces made relatively hot by insolation through clear skies. Heating of the overlying air causes its pressure to fall to a relative minimum and a depression to form. Air converging into the heat low rises, but a strong subsidence inversion, reflecting convergence in the upper troposphere, allows only shallow cloud to form; this is quickly evaporated through mixing with very dry air from above the inversion. Axes of heat troughs have been termed the heat equator. In the family of tropical vortexes, heat lows/troughs are linked to surface anticyclones and upper tropospheric (cold) lows. In them, mid-tropospheric air sinks and weather is fine. Over the deserts, as winter follows summer, and surface air cools and becomes denser, surface pressure increases and anticyclones replace heat lows.

In the first image below, one can see a heat trough and low strung out along Northern Australia and Western Australia using 850 mb temps.

The the second image, MSLP correspond the 850 mb temp with a low over Western Austrialia.

And the third image is the most striking evidence of the heat low. Look at how the 10m winds converge in a line (trough) across Northern Australia. Concentrate and follow the red arrows.

Other Heat Low Locations:
Desert Southwest - USA - July-August
Colombia - South America - Year round but prevalent in July-Ausgust
The Sahara - Africa - June-September
India and the Middle East - June-September
Bolivia -South America - December - March






Good afternoon...Some thoughts on the 08 season.

Just dropping in to say hello to everyone on WU and give my opinion on the anomalies across the atlantic holding steady.As we have learned sst's are only a small portion of what it takes for a tropical cyclones to flurish and various atmospheric conditions need to be right - including low shear to SAL.The latest NCEP 6-Month SST Forecast calls for a strong Nina currently in place in the E-Pac to continue although weakening through the pre-season anomaly period of May-July with an anticipated value of -1.0C.

The current forcast calls for only slightly above normal sst's around the gulf of mexico and portions of the african coast with cooler sst's in the central tropical atlantic.Right now i suspect this year will host many tropical waves coming of the african coast but with out bunch to them as cooler waters maybe be the rule until they reach 55-60W L.My overall thoughts right now is we could see a season with 13-14 named systems with 6-7 becoming hurricanes with 2-3 reaching major hurricane status.Some quick analogs i came up with are 1971 and 1999.I picked those years due to the fact that they had a la nina which was either fading away or holding its own with a few other factors involved.

2007 was indeed a very active season even with the lack of tropical cyclone landfalls in the united states.We saw 2 cat 5's making landfall in Mexico and Central America.The only real signficant threat that came about was with Humberto which luckly ran out of water shuting down its explosive development.Dean and felix were indeed the highlights of 2007 in my opinion braking records with 2 landfalling cat 5's in one season.The U.S. indeed lucked out once again.The important thing to keep in mind is that numbers are not important as the ones that make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.The 1992 season is a prime example that even in slow seasons things can get ugly as it only takes 1 over your community.

Overall no worries as were now in january but before you know its that time once again.

New look to www.Adrians Weather.com
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
CCH, i forgot to mention one thing: JSL is used for tropical cyclone classifications also.
136. Weather456 3:16 PM EST on January 16, 2008
CCH, i forgot to mention one thing: JSL is used for tropical cyclone classifications also.


I figured the JSL was just the color Dvorak.
Funa affecting the northern islands of Vanuatu as we speak. Up to 1 inche of rain per hour possible

seems so
Just stoped in to see what was happening on forcast. An interesting patern on GOES West with a high pressure off the US coast and a low further out. Not sure if these happen that often.
Looks like the convective burst that we saw earlier on IR imagery may be coming back again as the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Gulf low and attached cold front has become quite organized and has shown signs of strengthening. I just don't see how these storms will completely fall apart before the front moves over Florida on Saturday.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
in Ojmjakon, Russia its -64 right now
142. Tazmanian 3:52 PM EST on January 16, 2008
in Ojmjakon, Russia its -64 right now


Damn, that seems too cold for anything or anyone to survive in. Thank God I live in Florida where we do not need to worry very often about extreme cold weather.
-64... that's long sleeve weather.
Vigorous low pressure system in the northern Gulf of Mexico. As you can see on the regional radar imagery rain is stretching right up into the South east in the drought stricken areas. This should continue for the next day or so before the low gradually weakens along the coast. The main event from this system will be the rain which could even stretch up to the northeast as 850mb temps be above freezing for the coastal and some of the interior sections.

Currently in the Gulf Jet stream winds are producing high atmospheric energy in the upper levels helping to enhance some of the rainfall. A convective current is well established with the baroclinic low as it continues to move to the ENE. A surface warm front extends downward from the low near the Florida keys. Trailing behind the low is a surface cold front.

i said -64 wish is 64 be low 0


not 64 -64
Taz Ojmjakon is one of the coldest place on earth.
Drakoen how cold can they get -100 -150 ?
Nice analysis Drakoen. By the way, nice to see you back again. I just don't see this line weakening significantly before the front moves over South Florida. It looks very impressive right now, although we have seen time and again these strong lines crumble when they move over South Florida. Will have to wait and see. Im really glad the Southeast is getting and will continue to get much needed rainfall from this system.
Drakoen its going to turn cold and may be some low snow fall
141. cchsweatherman 8:42 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Looks like the convective burst that we saw earlier on IR imagery may be coming back again as the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Gulf low and attached cold front has become quite organized and has shown signs of strengthening. I just don't see how these storms will completely fall apart before the front moves over Florida on Saturday.


Don't worry it will fall apart. Just as fast as it bursts it can wane too. Expect light to moderate precip for Florida.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa Category Two [978 hPa] located near 15.1S 166.5E is reported moving east-southeast at 8 knots expected to turn southeast in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 50 knots increasing to 60 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Position POOR based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation.

Storm-Force Winds within 30 miles from the center

Gale-force Winds within 120 miles from the center.

Organization steadily increasing. Center is now under deep and cooling convection. Spiral Bands consolidating and wrapping tightly around the low level circulation center. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region and minimal wind shear. Shear (CIMSS) decreasing over the system and along the forecasted track. East-southeast steering influenced by mid-levels.

Dvorak Intensity based on 0.6 wrap on LOG10 Spiral in CMG, yielding a T3.5. PET/MET=3.5, Thus T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models generally agree on further intensification with an east-southeast movement then a southeast track.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.5S 168.7E 60 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 19.1S 172.0E 90 knots [CAT 4]

---
The second Australian Scale Category Four for the Southeastern Pacific Ocean?
148. Tazmanian 8:52 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Drakoen how cold can they get -100 -150 ?


lol not that cold. They can get to -80 or so. Very few people live there around 800.
ok
150. Tazmanian 9:08 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Drakoen its going to turn cold and may be some low snow fall


yes, there may be some snow for you.
how about -81? thats cold

this is there forcast low

Friday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -81° F. / -63° C. Wind light.
Daniel Swain Says:

January 16th, 2008 at 9:16 am
New 12z GFS is the most impressive yet–explicitly indicating light snowfall for parts of the Sacrmento Valley and to very low elevations elsewhere as 850 mb temps drop to -6 C or below. Convective potential will be greatest from the Southern Sacramento Valley southwards to the Mexican border. Widespread significant precipitation still looks unlikely, so not a hydrologically major event, but it could be a high-impact event for many areas nonetheless due to the potential for very rare snowfall affecting major population centers and small hail/sleet bursts possible pretty much anywhere. Also…a deep freeze is a near certainty, with overnight temps possibly dropping below 20 degrees in valley areas by next week. Stay tuned…12z GFS also indicates a much more active pattern after day 7 as well…

cool valley snow fall
It looks like the convection associated with this cold front has become much deeper and organized now.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Tropical Cyclone Funa (12P/10F) Update 4

Issued 2100 UTC JAN 16 2008 by W456

Tropical cyclone Funa is located near 14.7S-167.3E moving slowly towards the east. Estimated surface winds are near 50 knots with a minimum central pressure is near 989 mb. Wind shear is 10-20 knots and SSTs are 85F.

Center fix was based on 1 km visible imagery, Dvorak classification analysis, mircrowave imagery and multiplatform wind analysis. Winds were estimated using QuikSCAT, 2-D Flight level winds and AMSU which showed associated winds of 45-48 knots extending outward 21 nmi. Pressure measured using synoptic reports from the Northern Islands of Vanuatu. The tropical cyclone is rather impressive for the past 24 hrs with excellent curve bands accompany by vigorous convection. The LLCC is now more define and the radius of maximum winds has continued to contract, which is sign of organization. The warm-core continues to grow and kinetic energy release is steadily increasing due to ventilation in the upper levels. The tropical cyclone continues to be moderately sheared allowing it to take on an irregular shape. Dvorak classifications are approaching CI 3.5, as the curve bands continue to wrap around the cloud system center (CSC). The tropical cyclone will continue towards the east, threatening the northern islands of Vanuatu, then recurve back southwest under the influence of a transitory anticyclone.


by W456

JTWC Stats:
1800 UTC - 12PFUNA.55kts-982mb-148S-1662E

yea Taz. A 500mb positively titled trough will advect cold air from Canada into the region. Snow levels will come all the way down to surface as temperatures will be below freezing through all of the necessary heights. If a low manages to form in the region of maximum positive vorticity some ocean effect snow is very possible with postive vorticity advection moving of the coast. A significant event could occur in central and even south California. Precipitation will be light to moderate.
That Cold Fronts gonna Clobber me tommorow, better
get a Rain Jacket out.
watching that low in the gulf closely,is heading this way in New England.
cool . Drakoen
. Drakoen how march snow fall could we see on the vellay floor?
Forgot to mention, tropical storm conditions are expected over the N Islands with 10 ft seas, gusty winds and heavy rain. Small craft advisory in effect.
166. Tazmanian 10:00 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
. Drakoen how march snow fall could we see on the vellay floor?


1/10 to 1/4 of an inch. No significant accumulation expected.
Drakoen cool but march more snow fall in the foothills?
Drakoen could San Francisco see snow fall
169. Tazmanian 10:04 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Drakoen cool but march more snow fall in the foothills?


Probably. I would still say 1/4 of an inch.
Taz you ask too many questions. Just continue to monitor the models.
172. Drakoen 2:07 PM PST on January 16, 2008
Taz you ask too many questions. Just continue to monitor the models


ok
Drakoen could San Francisco see snow fall

i want to no

yes no maybe????
174. Tazmanian 10:10 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Drakoen could San Francisco see snow fall

i want to no

yes no maybe????


Too early to tell.
ok
Overshooting tops of cumulonimbus clouds above the cirrus canopy

Hey folks...

Just dropping in to leave the NWS report from Olga from Puerto Rico.Its a great read.

Subtropical characteristics began to rapidly take shape as the low pressure system showed better signs of formation during the afternoon of Monday, December 10. The center of the system was just north of St. Thomas by the evening hours, moving over slightly warmer and shallower waters. This aligned it just under an Upper Level col of low pressure between two lobes of vorticity in high layers of the atmosphere. This was a critical step in Olga%u2019s intensification process. By reducing the wind shear, it allowed the storm to close off its low level circulation and begin wrapping convection around its newly formed center. Communications increased between the WFO San Juan and the National Hurricane Center (NHC), whose hurricane specialists had been watching the storm closely around the clock and who had already issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement. The hurricane specialist had noticed tropical storm force sustained winds (35 knots, or 40 mph) at NOAA buoy 41403 located approximately 150 miles north of St. Thomas and winds at Cyril E. King Airport in St. Thomas were beginning to gust over to over 30 knots. At this time, convection was beginning to explode northwest of St. Thomas as cloud tops reaching 55-60 thousand feet were occurring nearing the rapidly deepening low center. As convection intensified, the low pressure center became significantly stronger as northwesterly flow on the northwest side of the system increased, allowing convection to push south towards the northern coast of Puerto Rico.



Report Here

www.AdriansWeather.com
Mets here said when you seeing snow in Atlanta,G.A and Alabama you know its a coming!

Some schools closed already even no there isnt snow YET.
N.C

Possibal .25ice/ 2-4inches of snow.(Foothills)

Possibal .25ice/ Trace to 2inches(snow). (Piedmont)

Snow 4-6inches (Mountains)


Hope the thunderstorms dont steaL the moisture.
Some people on this site have taken it upon themselves to question my intentions and knowledge. This person has brought something forth to my attention that i feel needs immediate clearing up.

Taz, the reason I did not say whether or not it would snow it the bay area is because the GFS has bias to cold weather events and this one seemed even more robust and getting closer to the event is better inorder to get a better idea of what the system will do. The GFS does show snow in the bay area now but that can still change with fluctuations in the 850mb temperatures.

Weather456, the reason i called the jet stream the subtropical jetstream earlier this weak is because of the flow in the upper levels which was from the south west which is typical of the subtropical jet versus the polar jet which brings down northerly winds and is located at a higher latitude. The subtropical jet stream can fluctuate between 20N and 50N and is usually associated with relatively warmer air associated with tropical air.
Also if anyone has a problem with me don't keep it to yourself. Bring it forth to me by messaging me and explain to me how you feel. We can all keep it real here, i have no problem doing that.
Good taste of southern snow!

Merry Christmas"
Guys looked at the NWS report on Olga....Just posted it.
Nice snow coating in Alanta. Looks like some moderate snowfall. Possibly looking for some of that snow in California.

Rain or snow we need H20 very bad in these areas.
186. NorthxCakalaky 12:01 AM GMT on January 17, 2008
Rain or snow we need H20 very bad in these areas.


yep and they shall recieve. Hopefully put a dent in the drought.
180. Drakoen 3:29 PM PST on January 16, 2008
Some people on this site have taken it upon themselves to question my intentions and knowledge. This person has brought something forth to my attention that i feel needs immediate clearing up.

Taz, the reason I did not say whether or not it would snow it the bay area is because the GFS has bias to cold weather events and this one seemed even more robust and getting closer to the event is better inorder to get a better idea of what the system will do. The GFS does show snow in the bay area now but that can still change with fluctuations in the 850mb temperatures.

Weather456, the reason i called the jet stream the subtropical jetstream earlier this weak is because of the flow in the upper levels which was from the south west which is typical of the subtropical jet versus the polar jet which brings down northerly winds and is located at a higher latitude. The subtropical jet stream can fluctuate between 20N and 50N and is usually associated with relatively warmer air associated with tropical air.

ok
Weather456, the reason i called the jet stream the subtropical jetstream earlier this weak is because of the flow in the upper levels which was from the south west which is typical of the subtropical jet versus the polar jet which brings down northerly winds and is located at a higher latitude. The subtropical jet stream can fluctuate between 20N and 50N and is usually associated with relatively warmer air associated with tropical air.

I almost forgot about that. Anyways....I still dont agree it was the subtropical jet but I dont want make an argument about it. A jet is a jet.

180. Drakoen 7:29 PM AST on January 16, 2008
Some people on this site have taken it upon themselves to question my intentions and knowledge. This person has brought something forth to my attention that i feel needs immediate clearing up.

It happens to most ppl, even myself, just prove them wrong.
Thanks Weather456 i appreciate you responding.
no prob
Wow, Tropical Cyclone Funa looks like it won't be much Fun this weekend!
I posted this over on the NorthEast weather blog, but no one seems to be around, and this is time sensitive.
I wonder if anyone here has some thoughts on my situation.

The forecasters here in the NorthEast USA are still saying "snow" for Friday,
and "mixed precipitation" for NH.

I'm supposed to make a 2 1/2 hr trip from near Burlington, VT to Concord, NH tomorrow and drive back on Friday.
Good idea? Bad idea?
I have two, possibly three meetings to go to,
but will bow out if the roads are going to be bad.
I-89 from near Burlington, VT to Concord stretches through 5 weather areas:
Champlain Valley, Green Mountains, Upper Valley (at CT River), the mountains in W. NH, and the Concord region.
I have gone from sunshine to snow squalls to rain to ice then on to flurries in less than three hours.

I'd really like to know what to expect
before I make a hotel reservation.
What do folks here think?
Does anyone have a link to projected snow totals for Friday's storm in the NorthEast?
Thanks!
Storm-Force Warning issued by Nadi RSMC

TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA CATEGORY TWO [970 hPa] located near 15.0S 167.9E as of 0:00 AM UTC. Position FAIR.

Cyclone has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots increasing to 70 knots in the next 18 hours

Storm-Force Winds within 35 miles from the center

Gale-Force Winds within 120 miles from the center.

Organization steadily increasing. Center now under deep and cooling convection. Spiral bands consolidating and wrapping tightly around the low level circulation center. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region and minimal shear. Shear (CIMSS) decreasing over the system and along the forecasted track. Easterly steering influenced by mid-level ridge to the north and east.

Dvorak Intensity based on 0.95 wrap on LOG10 Spiral in CMG, yielding a DT 4.0, Thus, T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS.

Global models generally agree on further intensification and a east-southeast then southeast movement.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.5S 170.0E 60 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 19.4S 172.5E 90 knots [CAT 4]
Nice catch on the QS, 456. Too bad so much of it was rain contaminated.
Heavy snow! Already sticking.
Snow came in earler than thought.More snow acc and less ice acc.

Saw some reports of 4inches in S.C.

G.A -saw a report of 3.5.

Wouldnt be surprised if Charlote got 2-4inches.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FUNA ADVISORY NUMBER SIX
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funa Category Two [970 hPa] located near 15.3S 169.5E is reported moving east at 12 knots expected to turn southeast in the next 18 hours. Maximum 10 minute sustained wind near the center is 55 knots increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Position FAIR based on Multispectral Enhanced Infrared Radar Imagery with animation and Peripheral Surface Observation.

Storm-Force Winds within 35 miles from the center

Gale-Force Winds within 120 miles from the center

Organization decreased as cyclone moved over Santo. Deep convection about center erupted past 3 hours cooling and increasing spartially. System still lies in a diffluent region with minimal shear. CIMSS maintains decreasing shear over the system and along the forecasted track. Easterly steering influenced by mid-level ridge to the north and east.

Dvorak based on Irregular Central Dense Overcast Pattern giving a CF=3.0 and BF=0.50 yielding a dvorak intensity of T3.5, Thus T3.5/4.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models generally agree on further intensification and a east-southeast then southeast track.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 16.4S 171.0E 60 knots [CAT 2]
24 HRS: 19.9S 173.1E 90 knots [CAT 4]
East coast 3:50a.m Snow, 1.5inches so far,28degrees
Funa is now at hurricane intensity

3inches with moderate snow
Tropical Cyclone Funa Update 5

Issued 1000 UTC JAN 17 2008 by W456

Tropical cyclone Funa (10F/12P) has been upgraded to hurricane intensity. The cyclone is located near 15.2S-170.0E moving towards the east-southeast. Estimated surface winds are near 65 knots and pressure is estimated to be near 976 mb. Wind shear is below 5 knots.

Center fix was based on infrared imagery, microwave imagery, QuikSCAT and multiplatform satellite winds. Dvorak estimates earlier were CI 4.0 but current Dvorak numbers are hinting on CI 3.5 (probably because the system looks ragged in nature). The winds and pressure will correspond to CI 4.0 based on the possible eye feature. The maximum sustain winds extend outward 16 nmi. Satellite imagery showed a warming of the cloud canopy near the center indicating that Funa maybe forming an eye. In addition, a microwave overpass showed a possible eye feature. I was tempted to use the eye pattern for intensity estimates but that would just make it difficult as the feature is still poorly defined. Therefore, embedded center pattern was use. The cyclone is being well-ventilated by an upper level anticyclone which is allowing the warm-core to grow significantly. The warmer the core the more potential energy available to drive the winds. The cyclone is forecast to continue towards the southeast then recurve under the influence of the subtropical ridge. Some additional strengthening is possible as the forecast track takes the cyclone over an area of high ocean heat content.

By W456

JTWC Stats:
0600 UTC - 12P FUNA.65kts-974mb-155S-1690E


Good morning all. Looks like South Florida may indeed get some needed rainfall from this frontal system. There are some strong storms developing out in the GOM and moving towards South Florida.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
Question. Why is it that every time I post an image, my post always displays the HTML coding? It has been annoying me for quite some time.
4.5inches of snow and now it is light sleet.
207. cchsweatherman 1:02 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
Question. Why is it that every time I post an image, my post always displays the HTML coding? It has been annoying me for quite some time.


check the code.Make sure you don't have stuff that shouldn't be there.
The frontal system going through the Gulf of Mexico looks like a steam engine. I have often wondered what it would look like if you were at the starting point of the plume of water vapor. Almost looks like a boiling kettle.
151. Drakoen 9:30 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
141. cchsweatherman 8:42 PM GMT on January 16, 2008
Looks like the convective burst that we saw earlier on IR imagery may be coming back again as the line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the Gulf low and attached cold front has become quite organized and has shown signs of strengthening. I just don't see how these storms will completely fall apart before the front moves over Florida on Saturday.

Don't worry it will fall apart. Just as fast as it bursts it can wane too. Expect light to moderate precip for Florida.




I got 3 inches here, 5 hours straight of steady rain with quick busts of 2 to 3 inch per hour rain rates.


Mostly light rain in Florida huh? LOL Ive had the heaviest rain Ive seen this produce, I'm on the west coast of Florida.



Don't put faith in computers, thats all that needs to be said.

Great point Jedkins. Thanks for backing my ideas up. I never put high faith in the computer models; they're just a compliment to my forecasts.
Good morning to all,another cold morning here in the northeast,but this is a heatwave compared to this coming Sunday and Monday
Morning Storm,I suspect Florida is going to get hit with this cold snap this weekend,don't you think?
Today Greensboro had freezing rain with thunder. My house up in the foothills got 4-5inches of snow.Now its just freezing rain accumalating on the trees.
WXII12,(news) had 550delays/closings to give,just for the counties they have to watch for. Schools here were closed here. Highest totals of snow were 6inches in the mountains and still snowing there.Ice is also effecting everyone else not getting snow.
Take a look at the explosive thunderstorm cells out in the GOM. This activity is heading towards South Florida and does not look to slow down or weaken just yet.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
218. StormW 3:01 PM GMT on January 17, 2008
217. NEwxguy 9:57 AM EST on January 17, 2008
Morning Storm,I suspect Florida is going to get hit with this cold snap this weekend,don't you think?


Looks that way...GFSX MOS is calling for low 40's in my area on Sunday morning, but temps are supposed to recover by Tuesday.

Storm,this is the second artic outbreak this year,but the good thing is,they are brief,2 days usually.
Visit sunny Dubai, ArabianGulf playground of the internationally rich&famous

The usually sun-baked destination has been hit by torrential rain for the first time in living memory.
More rain and flooding is expected.

Four years ago, the UnitedArabEmirates received the first snow in history. In Dubai itself, a half inch (12millimetres) of light rain falling over a period of 24hours caused over 500 auto accidents.
More snow forcasted as a front comes in Saturday night into Sunday for N.C. High temp forcast for Sunday is 33 with a low of 14.Cold!! Should be light snow though, with better chances the higher the elevaton,,Highest totals above 3500f.t and on the western slopes.
I'll be watching for your analysis on the Saturday night storm, a few miles either side of the 40/70 benchmark,is going to be crucial.
StormW, do you have any thoughts on the big winds we always hear about in California? I think they are called the Santanas?
Are they seasonal? Why do they cause such problems, like fires and stuff? Why would wind cause fire?
Thanks for the analysis,storm,our football game up here on Sunday will be interesting,glad I'm watching it from my living room and not there.
Good morning Peeps,

Check this forecast out and tell me what you think? Kind of funny,,,,,,,,,,


2 Miles NNE Gainesville FL
Enter Your "City, ST" or zip code
NWS Jacksonville, FL
Point Forecast: 2 Miles NNE Gainesville FL
29.69N -82.35W Cell Phone Weather Link: www.srh.noaa.gov/wml
Last Update: 10:25 am EST Jan 17, 2008
Forecast Valid: 12pm EST Jan 17, 2008-6pm EST Jan 23, 2008



Hazardous weather condition(s):


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Lake Wind Advisory


This Afternoon: A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly before 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 14 and 16 mph.

Tonight: Patchy fog after 1am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West wind between 4 and 7 mph becoming calm.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly after 1pm. Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind between 3 and 7 mph.

Friday Night: Rain likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 1am. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. East wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. Breezy, with a calm wind becoming southwest between 14 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Good morning Storm! Have you seen the storms exploding in the GOM? I think that South Florida will get more rain than expected from this frontal system. What are your thoughts?
Well, I guess it would be safe to say that temps will be below normal....LOL!


Photobucket
235. StormW 11:49 AM EST on January 17, 2008
233. cchsweatherman 11:41 AM EST on January 17, 2008
Good morning Storm! Have you seen the storms exploding in the GOM? I think that South Florida will get more rain than expected from this frontal system. What are your thoughts?


That's a good prob...depending on how fast it moves through. It's tapping some good moisture from the sub-tropical jet.


I've noticed that this frontal system has been tapping moisture from the Pacific and there is enough instability left to produce the supercells that I have seen develop in the GOM. It looks like Lake Okeechobee received around 2 inches this morning and I see much more coming.
What is that off the coast of California? I've never seen anything like it. Is it a strange High? Is it a low of some type? If it is, then why is is rotating the wrong way??? I'm confused...

WV loop of a strange thing
One more question. If it's a high, then why does it have the illusion of a front that is spiraling inward?
Check out the impressive convective burst sitting of the Florida West Coast. It looks like there may be several vorticies within this thunderstorm cluster. Watch out for this South Florida.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />

Photobucket
Long range radar loop out of Key West shows some potent rain approaching S. Florida.

Link
243. P451
Wow, that thing is just refusing to quit despite now being largely separated from the storm now pushing north. Very impressive. None of the models wanted to keep it alive.

Imagine if it were October...would we be viewing that blob in a different light maybe? :D

244. P451
Well looks like the second significant cold blast of the season is going to be a solid one at least for the midwest into the north east and even south east for a spell.

check a temperature loop <-- you have to do it "manually" moving your mouse back and forth over the time frame.


Also, it's associated predicted precip - I'm being teased again with a potential snowfall in east-central jersey. This may sound odd but I like shoveling snow.

clouds and precip
P451,don't get too excited about the snowfall,not going to be too impressive.
good afternoon all
247. P451
P451,don't get too excited about the snowfall,not going to be too impressive.

Yeah, I know, but I've had nothing other than dustings here so far. 4 inches would impress me at this point. *sighs*

Watching the latest imagery, it looks like the convection has begun to wane, but there are two very discernable features of interest that I noted. It looks like small lows within the storm cluster.
img src="Photobucket" width="" height="" alt="" />
In a remarkable loop, the old center of Funa decayed and a new one form. Link

Curve bands forming a 1.25 arc

250. P451
456 Thats a great image of Funa.


Meanwhile, I can't understand why TD01W is still classified. It's had 15mph winds and been indiscernible on satellite for days yet they still track it. Why?
Meanwhile, I can't understand why TD01W is still classified. It's had 15mph winds and been indiscernible on satellite for days yet they still track it. Why?

I think the JTWC has stop tracking it.
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