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Extreme Rains Swamp Baltimore and Long Island

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:59 PM GMT on August 13, 2014

An extreme deluge nearly unprecedented in Baltimore history swamped the city in flood waters that closed multiple expressways on Tuesday afternoon. Officially, 6.30" of rain fell at the Baltimore Airport on Tuesday. This was their second wettest calendar day in history, behind only the 7.62" that fell on August 23, 1933 during the Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane. Remarkably, 3.95" of yesterday's Baltimore deluge fell in just 73 minutes. According to the NOAA Precipitation Frequency server, we would expect such a heavy 2-hour rainfall event to happen only once every 100 years. A 6.30" rainfall in 24 hours has a recurrence interval of once every 25 years.


Figure 1. Flooding in Baltimore, Maryland on Shell Avenue between Curtis Bay and Route 2 on August 12, 2014. Image posted to Instagram by blueagavebalto.

Extreme rains swamp Long Island and Connecticut
Dangerous flash flooding is occurring this Wednesday morning across Central Long Island, New York and Southern Connecticut as a low pressure area centered near New York City brings bands of heavy rain to its east. Rainfall rates as high as 5.34" per hour were observed in Islip, New York, triggering flooding that has forced the closure of multiple freeways, including the Long Island Expressway. Thunderstorms that repeatedly trained over the same point brought Islip 5.34" of rain between 5 - 6 am EDT, then another 4.37" between 6 - 7 am. The NWS reported that 13.20" of rain had fallen in Islip so far this morning, as of 10 am EDT. The record rainfall total for the entire month of August in Islip is 13.78".


Figure 2. Radar-estimated rain in Long Island, New York on August 13, 2014 exceeded 8" along a narrow swath.

Why such heavy rains?
Baltimore and Long Island's deluges comes on the heels of Monday's torrential rains in Detroit, whose roads were virtually shut down when the city's 2nd heaviest 24-hour rain since 1874, 4.57", fell. Portions of four major expressways remain closed in Detroit today due to flood damage, and states of emergency remain in effect for much of Detroit and some of its northern suburbs. All of these floods had two things in common: an unusually high level of water vapor in the atmosphere, and an unusually amplified jet stream. Precipitable water (a measure of water vapor) in Detroit on Monday and near Long Island last night was in the 99th percentile historically. The jet stream was in an unusually contorted configuration, with a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S., and sharp ridge of high pressure over the West. This allowed colder air than usual to move in aloft, increasing the instability of the atmosphere, causing stronger thunderstorm updrafts and heavier rains.


Figure 3. I-94 East in Detroit at Livernois on August 11, 2014. Image posted to Twitter by Ali B. (@AABaydoun.)

Monday's rains meant that four of Detroit's top ten rainiest days since 1874 have occurred in the past seventeen years. Yesterday's rains in Baltimore means that three of Baltimore's top ten rainiest days since 1871 have occurred during the past five years, and four of the top ten rainiest days have occurred in the past 15 years:

1) 7.62" August 23, 1933 (the great Chesapeake-Potomac Hurricane
2) 6.30" August 12, 2014
3) 6.02" September 30, 2010
4) 5.97" September 24, 1912
5) 5.85" July 8, 1952
6) 5.51" October 29, 2012 Hurricane Sandy)
7) 5.02" September 16, 1999 (Hurricane Floyd)
8) 5.00" September 27, 1985 (Hurricane Gloria)
9) 4.91" August 12, 1955 (Hurricane Connie)
10) 4.76" September 5, 1895


Figure 4. Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region. There is a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy events, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Image credit: NCA Overview, updated from Karl et al. 2009.

If these numbers make you suspect that record heavy rains may be occurring more frequently in these cities due to a changing climate, then you're in good company. The U.S. National Climate Assessment, issued every four years by NOAA, is an effort by more than 300 U.S. scientists to assess how the climate is changing in the U.S. The just-released 2014 report said: “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.” Fundamentally, a warmer atmosphere will evaporate more moisture from the oceans, resulting in more days with 99th percentile water vapor in the atmosphere, and increased chances of very heavy rainfall events like this week's deluges in Detroit, Baltimore, and Islip.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days.

Jeff Masters
Flooding In Ronkonkoma
Flooding In Ronkonkoma
The streets are currently waist high with water. Time to break out the watercraft!
yesterday in Glen Burnie on
yesterday in Glen Burnie on

Flood Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Impressive cool snap across most of the US this morning. However here in FL it is sizzling with high heat and humidity pushing heat indices close to 110.

Quoting 495. Pallis1:

One hit Venice Fl. in the 50's. Went past 41. Not many people alive to recount as it was a small town back then, and it hit nowhere else.


Famous one in Daytona in the 1990's I believe. Boothbay Harbor, ME (which is a really cool place BTW), had something in 2008.

Mysteries. The best part. Enjoy!
It's going to be warmer in Canada than in Alabama & Georgia tonight. Insane how the cold plunges south while warm air surges up into western Canada.

Quoting 501. StormTrackerScott:

Impressive cool snap across most of the US this morning. However here in FL it is sizzling with high heat and humidity pushing heat indices close to 110.




Florence, SC....low to mid 60's this morning. Low humidity. About 4 weeks early.
Quoting 503. EdMahmoud:



That isn't a NOAA forecast, and you are willfully ignorant. The NHC 5 days w/o development is a NOAA forecast. One is a tool not meant to be used by clueless amateur weenies like yourself.


Most of us are amateurs here.
I must say, I'm a little astonished the models aren't showing any Atlantic development in the next two weeks. By itself I don't think that carries any inherent connotations, but I would expect at least some hints of activity appearing in the western Atlantic region as the broad trough over the northeast lifts out and gives way to ridging. Especially since the GFS and ECMWF generally show this feature persisting. That's a favorable pattern for development in the western Atlantic region. Still nothing. Which is odd because shear has been generally below normal across the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico regions.

Quoting 507. HaoleboySurfEC:



Most of us are amateurs here.
Yes but some amateurs are significantly more knowledgeable than others.

Not a potshot at nc.
Quoting 507. HaoleboySurfEC:



Most of us are amateurs here.


I'm an amateur here. What NCStorm is really saying is that he can out-forecast NHC, which predicts nothing in 5 days. The suggestion that I'm the one 'dissing' NOAA is ludicrous.
Quoting 512. EdMahmoud:



I'm an amateur here. What NCStorm is really saying is that he can out-forecast NHC, which predicts nothing in 5 days. The suggestion that I'm the one 'dissing' NOAA is ludicrous.


She*
sure everyone seen twc of recent "mdr region has warmer air than normal at the mid to upper levels"
Quoting 514. islander101010:

sure everyone seen twc of recent "mdr region has warmer air than normal at the mid to upper levels" kory would you go to bed you become arrogant in the day


I'm not arrogant. I'm a person who's tired of this place.
Quoting 511. KoritheMan:


Yes but some amateurs are significantly more knowledgeable than others.

Not a potshot at nc.

.

Yes, but that is true in every area of life. We should all feel comfortable to contribute here. Enjoy my man. You contribute much to this blog. I for one appreciate it.

And send me some surf. I have a bunch of time off and no waves...oh the horror...
take a break what you need is a vacation. no tropical trouble till sept. how about bali?
At least Kori doesnt become ignorant during the day
Quoting 502. HaoleboySurfEC:



Famous one in Daytona in the 1990's I believe.....


You're right on that. I think it was in the summer of 1992. The wave hit during the night. Local officials in public safety said it could have been a disaster had it hit during the day when the beaches were crowded.
Quoting 489. beell:



Chicken Crossing Road-Portland, OR/August 13, 2014/abcnews.go.com

Authorities still have no answer as to why,

So the chicken and the egg are in bed together arm in arm smoking cigarettes
The chicken looks at the egg and says "well i guess that answers that question"
Quoting 520. tramp96:


So the chicken and the egg are in bed together arm in arm smoking cigarettes
The chicken looks at the egg and says "well i guess that answers that question"


lol
Quoting 517. islander101010:

take a break what you need is a vacation. no tropical trouble till sept. how about bali?


I agree, actually.

Anytime I take an unwitting hiatus from this place it seems to make me feel significantly better, lol.

But I can see why SouthALWX left.
Quoting 518. K8eCane:

At least Kori doesnt become ignorant during the day


:)
Quoting 516. HaoleboySurfEC:

.

Yes, but that is true in every area of life. We should all feel comfortable to contribute here. Enjoy my man. You contribute much to this blog. I for one appreciate it.

And send me some surf. I have a bunch of time off and no waves...oh the horror...
I'm not suggesting not to feel like we have freedom of expression, lol. We clearly do.

And once again, not directed at nc specifically, but freedom of expression doesn't mean an equal knowledge base. I would listen to Drak before I would some random user that just joined, for example. Mostly because those people tend to have greater knowledge bases. One problem I do have with this place though is that there is a certain air of favoritism where hypothetically we could have two people post the exact same forecast using the exact same data, and the one that's been here longer would get 10 or 15 plusses on his or her comment. I try not to perpetuate that if I see a newer user post something genuine.
Morning All.

May have a year like 2005 where the bulk of the storms, the big ones anyway, form west of 50W.


Quoting islander101010:
take a break what you need is a vacation. no tropical trouble till sept. how about bali?



May be the rest of the season with no name storms
527. beell
De-Julio'ed

528. SLU
This is so frustrating. I really miss the good old days.


Quoting 525. ProgressivePulse:

Morning All.

May have a year like 2005 where the bulk of the storms, the big ones anyway, form west of 50W.



Agreed. I'm expecting a season like 2002.*

*We had 8 storms that September. Which is why I'm not willing to cast off this season as being 2013 redux just yet.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Morning All.

May have a year like 2005 where the bulk of the storms, the big ones anyway, form west of 50W.





Vary unlikely that will happen this year things will stay vary quite for the next 2 weeks or longer we are haveing a hard time this getting two are C storm
When the early 1980s type 4-7 named storms a year period returns, and it looks like it could be approaching, the tension on this forum will be thick.
Quoting 530. Tazmanian:




Vary unlikely that will happen this year things will stay vary quite for the next 2 weeks or longer we are haveing a hard time this getting two are C storm



Was just talking location Taz, not the numbers. How are you this morning?
Quoting 492. StormTrackerScott:



I've never seen the Atlantic this Barren before in AUGUST of all months .
I love it that way
Quoting KoritheMan:

Agreed. I'm expecting a season like 2002.*

*We had 8 storms that September. Which is why I'm not willing to cast off this season as being 2013 redux just yet.



That was 2002. This is 2014 the setup is not the same has it was in 2002


I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms



I think will see 5 name storms or less will be lucky if we make it two 5 name storm



Get ready for crow
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Was just talking location Taz, not the numbers. How are you this morning?




Doing vary well on my iPad Air right now and my only thing that I ever use now dos has I dump the laptops I may go back two the laptop but I want two see what ms dos with window 9 1st. I may even think about getting a MacBook Air has I am a apple fan


watching!!!
Quoting 529. KoritheMan:


Agreed. I'm expecting a season like 2002.*

*We had 8 storms that September. Which is why I'm not willing to cast off this season as being 2013 redux just yet.

remember when everyone was like well 2013 well have all of its activity in september and kept pushing back the season? ended up being a bust
"Yesterday's rains in Baltimore means that three of Baltimore's top ten rainiest days since 1871 have occurred during the past five years, and four of the top ten rainiest days have occurred in the past 15 years:"

A little misleading. 3 of the 4 were associated with hurricanes which typically have heavy downpours in the rain bands.

Another example of using distorted data to justify climate change.
6z GFS is back to showing the CV hurricane. It has development into a TD in as little as 3 days or so. The NHC is not taking notice, however, as this solution has continued limited support from the GFS's own ensembles and no support from other models like the ECMWF and UKMET.

So much hope a few days ago with all these strong waves coming off Africa.

It seems like it's going to take a home grown system. The CV systems are being brutalized.
Good Morning.  Just posting these to support the current NHC forecast for no development in the Atlantic; another huge plume of SAL all the way into the Caribbean.  While the SAL has lifted off of the ITCZ, along with the sub-tropical ridge as is normal this time of year, SAL proliferating all the way into the Caribbean has pretty much been the story in the Atlantic for about 3 months now; makes for beautiful sunsets however in the Islands:






Quoting MAweatherboy1:
6z GFS is back to showing the CV hurricane. It has development into a TD in as little as 3 days or so. The NHC is not taking notice, however, as this solution has continued limited support from the GFS's own ensembles and no support from other models like the ECMWF and UKMET.



That's the same system the GFS had going to Bermuda yesterday. Now it has the system going to the Central Atlantic no where close to Bermuda.
I wouldn't put any trust in something that far out that will change with ever run.
We should at least keep our eyes off the African coast though. It's a somewhat interesting situation as we have two fairly well defined waves following each other in very close succession. This explains some of the "weird" behavior on the models like the GFS and CMC lately that show low pressures backing up or moving north near the CV islands, which hardly ever happens out there. The GFS's solution is basically to combine these waves into a storm. More likely than not, they'll both just bite the Saharan dust, but maybe the second one could try to spin up if the first one removes some of the dry air.

The current waves however would provide some much needed rain for the Caribbean regardless of a lack of development.  Here is the am Caribbean Desk take on the timing:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
703 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014


NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG
46W/47W EARLY THIS MORNING. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS
AROUND 50MM OF AVAILABLE WATER WITH THIS FEATURE. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY ON SATURDAY
MORNING...REACHING THE USVI BY MID MORNING. THE WAVE THEN TAKES A
BEELINE ACROSS PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE MONA PASSAGE BY 00UTC ON
SUNDAY. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PROJECT A HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AS THE WAVE ENTERS THE BASIN...WITH PWAT TO PEAK AT
50-55MM. HOWEVER... BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE IS TO RESULT IN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PUT A
DAMPEN ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM...WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM LIMITING TO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO/EL YUNQUE RAINFOREST. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOLLOWING
WAVE PASSAGE MIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT A RAPID DRYING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED AS MID
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

VALVERDE...IMN (COSTA RICA)
MEDINA...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...WPC(USA)
Quoting 537. wunderweatherman123:

remember when everyone was like well 2013 well have all of its activity in september and kept pushing back the season? ended up being a bust

Yet, 2013 still had 14 Tropical Storms. 8 of those came between 8/15-10/15 including ingrid. As it said every year there is plenty of time for things to pick up.
Translation for the NCEP discussion below; that very dry air and SAL in the Eastern Caribbean may dry the wave out and limit convection once is enters the Caribbean.
Nearby Weather Stations fall weather today on august 14 2014 at 8:51am
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
64.2 °F
DopplerDon.com
63.5 °F
Rock Hill
65.0 °F
Foxon
68.2 °F
East Haven Town Beach
66.2 °F
Branford Shoreline
65.1 °F
Yale, Kline Geology Lab
65.2 °F
Here is today's Africa shot; not much over land behind the current wave exiting the coast................It's going to take some more robust activity from Africa to moisten up the Atlantic ITCZ; these two waves alone are not going to cut it once they cross the Atlantic.  Have to see what it looks like across the Sahel Region disturbance wise in about 5-6 days.
THAT is a good looking and moist ITCZ on the E-Pac side of the global equation:
Quoting 539. MAweatherboy1:

6z GFS is back to showing the CV hurricane. It has development into a TD in as little as 3 days or so. The NHC is not taking notice, however, as this solution has continued limited support from the GFS's own ensembles and no support from other models like the ECMWF and UKMET.


One word-Patience.
551. beell
It's all about the monsoon!

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2014

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 18N16W...TO 10N26W 9N30W 11N40W AND 11N48W. THE ITCZ DOES
NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM 8N TO
13N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W. ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.
here are both tropical waves!! one lost some rain with it but got a good spin to it.. its still need to be watch and one more tropical wave will be in the water late today
553. beell
Quoting 552. hurricanes2018:

here are both tropical waves!! one lost some rain with it but got a good spin to it.. its still need to be watch and one more tropical wave will be in the water late today


Only one on this map.

The Atlantic side ITCZ, which is an extension of the African monsoon trof has not been around for several weeks now in spite of moderate rainfall in the Sahel...............Pretty odd considering no drought this year (you can seen all the green in the Sahel in the Africa satt shot below) in that region.
I apologize if this has been covered...but I do not get a chance to check this blog as much as I'd like these days.

I've been very interested in Julio in the central Pacific. Is it uncommon for a storm to maintain its tropical characteristics in this part of the ocean? Don't remember a storm so far north of Hawaii at just under hurricane strength.

Is this one unique, or common? Thanks for your help.
556. beell
Quoting 554. weathermanwannabe:

Beell9:08 AM EDT on August 14, 2014
THE ITCZ DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS MOMENT

Finally relieved to see a pro-met acknowledge what we have been seeing cross Africa and the Central Atlantic for the past few months; I don't recall seeing this much dryness out there, going into mid-August, over the past few years in spite of relatively normal rainfall (no drought) in the Sahel.


No doubt about the dry air-but it is not uncommon for the monsoon circulation/trough to strengthen and replace the ITCZ out into the central ATL. And it is in place out to at least 40W today (48W in the TWD). That in itself is not unusual.

THE ITCZ is characterized by confluent (easterly) flow between the two hemispheres. The monsoon has a more convergent flow and some amount of westerly component in opposing the easterly/northeasterly trades. A well defined monsoon trough is generally a better environment for development than the ITCZ.

But your main point stands. It's kinda dry over the MDR!
Quoting 553. beell:



Only one on this map.


add the new tropical waves ones it hit the water
558. beell
Quoting 557. hurricanes2018:

add the new tropical waves ones it hit the water


Maybe so. Perhaps I spoke too soon.
:)
559. beell
Lifting N a little?


Trans-Atlantic Dust Forecast
(a day old)

See ya'll later.
nice cool day today has not been this cool since may
tonight down to low 50's with high 40's possible in the valleys
cooler north of the city
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ great wedsite to watch tropical storms and hurricanes
Quoting 538. rjsenterp:

"Yesterday's rains in Baltimore means that three of Baltimore's top ten rainiest days since 1871 have occurred during the past five years, and four of the top ten rainiest days have occurred in the past 15 years:"

A little misleading. 3 of the 4 were associated with hurricanes which typically have heavy downpours in the rain bands.

Another example of using distorted data to justify climate change.


Are you suggesting that hurricanes have become more common there in recent years (that would suggest climate change)? In an unchanging climate a heavy downpour from a hurricane is equally likely in a recent year as in other years. Your argument is entirely flawed. In an unchanging climate every year has an equal chance of having the top daily rainfall event, regardless of the cause.
90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina
Quoting 458. VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah screw constitutionally guaranteed freedoms!
Absolutely, because the last time I looked arson and looting was in the Consitution. SMH On a "on topic" note, although I do enjoy watching storms forming, I am enjoying the fact that we haven't had to deal with a storm affecting land. Hope it continues. Hurricanes, and the aftermaths, are no fun.
Morning all

If we don't see any development out of the two waves off the African coast, looks like it could be another couple weeks of quiet in the Atl. Seems even the African continent has grown silent too. Will be interesting to see if the troughs moving off the E coast persist as we move in to Sept and Oct. A stalled front may end up being the best chances of seeing development this year. Still a long way to go though, and I find it a little hard to believe that we don't see at least something form from a CV wave before the season is over.
Quoting 563. Skyepony:

90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina

Karina will be a hurricane soon
test image upload
569. silas

Quoting hurricanes2018:
Karina will be a hurricane soon
Is that an eye trying to form? Regardless, with convection that deep, there's no way Karina isn't close to hurricane status now.

Quoting 569. silas:


Is that an eye trying to form? Regardless, with convection that deep, there's no way Karina isn't close to hurricane status now.


Yep that's and eye
A scientific paper just out suggests that, protestations from some aside, both the frequency and intensity of deluges such as the ones Dr. Masters wrote about in the current topic may very well be--and, in fact, likely are--increasing due to climate change:

Quasi-resonant circulation regimes and hemispheric synchronization of extreme weather in boreal summer

ABSTRACT: The recent decade has seen an exceptional number of high-impact summer extremes in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. Many of these events were associated with anomalous jet stream circulation patterns characterized by persistent high-amplitude quasi-stationary Rossby waves. Two mechanisms have recently been proposed that could provoke such patterns: (i) a weakening of the zonal mean jets and (ii) an amplification of quasi-stationary waves by resonance between free and forced waves in midlatitude waveguides. Based upon spectral analysis of the midtroposphere wind field, we show that the persistent jet stream patterns were, in the first place, due to an amplification of quasi-stationary waves with zonal wave numbers 6%u20138. However, we also detect a weakening of the zonal mean jet during these events; thus both mechanisms appear to be important. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the anomalous circulation regimes lead to persistent surface weather conditions and therefore to midlatitude synchronization of extreme heat and rainfall events on monthly timescales. The recent cluster of resonance events has resulted in a statistically significant increase in the frequency of high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves of wave numbers 7 and 8 in July and August. We show that this is a robust finding that holds for different pressure levels and reanalysis products. We argue that recent rapid warming in the Arctic and associated changes in the zonal mean zonal wind have created favorable conditions for double jet formation in the extratropics, which promotes the development of resonant flow regimes.


Full article
Quoting 560. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nice cool day today has not been this cool since may
tonight down to low 50's with high 40's possible in the valleys
cooler north of the city


Oh...say it ain't so...if only we could have a little of that cool air. it's 89 degrees here in Palm City, Fl. at 10:25am. Our cool air is provided by A/C!!! Cannot wait until the "season" changes in November when we can wear sweaters and 60 degree weather! LOL! Enjoy your day!
Quoting Skyepony:
90E went to the central Pacific. 10E is Karina. We have 95W reprise..

Looking at stuff we may see more flooding around the Great Lakes, into Canada & across the NE, next week~ Monday - Wednesday.

Karina


The K storm is 11E 10E was the J storm
i wanted everyone to see this!!!




the tropical wave at 30 west still looking good this morning
Quoting 505. HaoleboySurfEC:



Florence, SC....low to mid 60's this morning. Low humidity. About 4 weeks early.

Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.
Looking good. Now if she can just keep the convection during the day, unlike yesterday...
nino back to 0 again
I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes

my posts have been eaten.......whaaaaaaaa
just look at this puny wave.

Quoting 582. hydrus:

just look at this puny wave.



Will be once it hits the water ;)
Quoting 579. ricderr:

I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes


That looks really good..I,ll take three orders...and yes, i could eat it all..:)
Quoting 572. StuartLurker:



Oh...say it ain't so...if only we could have a little of that cool air. it's 89 degrees here in Palm City, Fl. at 10:25am. Our cool air is provided by A/C!!! Cannot wait until the "season" changes in November when we can wear sweaters and 60 degree weather! LOL! Enjoy your day!
nam temp forecast for ne at 5 am Friday morning



do you see all the rain out in the water next week that mean less dry air and better tropical wave holding the rain and t.storms and maybe nice tropical storms next weekend
I remember that mentality of fully expecting another storm to hit one after another. Definitely in a different era now.
Quoting 579. ricderr:

I got some nic crow for ever one that still thinks will make it two 10 storms


well today's special is herb crusted crow......with a side of roasted potatoes and sun dried tomatoes




Not sure what's wrong with the GFS, we'll get more rain the next couple days around here than the GFS shows through the 22nd. In fact the gulf has already had more coverage of convection today than the GFS accumulates through the week. Not sure why the GFS has a dry bias for us, because usually the GFS tends to have a wet bias for just about everyone.

One would think that cooling mid level temps, weak upper impulses, and PW of 2.0-2.2 through the weekend along with a tropical wave next week would prompt greater rain coverage.

What's weird is that the GFS missed the heavy rain from here north earlier in the week too. Total rainfall accumulation widespread for the coastal counties was 2-4 inches on Sunday and Monday to our north with local areas of 6-8 inches. The GFS showed only 0.25-0.50 inches to our north and showed less than 0.10 here.
The Tampa Bay area ended up seeing 0.75-1.5 inches with pockets of 2-4 inches instead of 0.05-0.10 qpf by the GFS.

Its weird. I suspect the GFS has been trying to link the drought in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean to us because the GFS rarely has a dry bias, its usually too wet bit at least a little bit. Thankfully it has been wrong so far. As this definitely hasn't been as active as a typical rainy season, but we're still doing well considering how well below normal moisture and rainfall over the tropics, which usually does impact us.




Even though it doesn't look like much now, I am looking more at the cluster about to move into central Africa.



This one had it literally right over my house. Ivan was a Cat. 5 at the time. No wonder so many people in my community boarded up and evacuated like mad dogs even though it ended up making landfall much farther west. People took it very seriously here along the FL Panhandle.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 586. hurricanes2018:



do you see all the rain out in the water next week that mean less dry air and better tropical wave holding the rain and t.storms and maybe nice tropical storms next weekend


We'd be at 6 or 10 named storms by now if the GFS was accurate. I mentioned the Caribbean a week or so after Arthur, GFS was very consistent that 6-8 days after the model run started, there would be a storm. Always kept pushing the storm farther in time, always 6-8 days from the beginning of the run. That lasted close to a week before the GFS finally caught a clue. When other models, especially the Euro, even thought it was slow picking up TD #2, start showing support, I'll get a little more sanguine.
Quoting 575. OracleDeAtlantis:


Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.


Is the stem core borer the same as the squash vine borer we have throughout the U.S. or is it the pickleworm that spreads north from FL every spring? Control for squash vine borers in the mid atlantic is to plant very early and get a crop of summer squash before they destroy the plants or plant very late after egg laying ends in mid July. Some really warm years there is a second generation but that's probably every year where you are.

My biggest disease problem is DOWNY mildew. Planting early before it becomes endemic each season is the best mitigation. It usually appears here in August and is another problem that spreads from the subtropics each season and is wiped out by winter.

new forecast is out forecast high of 63 today with scattered showers possible in the nw flow this afternoon
so today is coolest day since may 17th if we don't exceed the 63 degree mark right now its 60.1 outside as per my pws
with increasing cloudness right on cue with forecast
Quoting 575. OracleDeAtlantis:


Isn't it great ? My cucumbers are loving it. They think they're in paradise.

The squash on the other hand are suffering from waves of stem core borers. Eggs all over the new buds this A.M., and very depressing for them. Normally you would see two waves, but this year it looks like there's going to be three, likely due to the wet or cooler than average summer. I might have gotten lucky by spotting the eggs this A.M. They appreciate the cooler weather too, but the squash bug fight has been very difficult.

This has been a weird year for pests and mold. Some are gone completely, while others rage.

By the way, for any farmers out there, I tried a new remedy this year for powdery mildew that I had not heard of before on my cucumbers and squash. You spray the leaves in bright sunshine with a mix of half water and half milk, or 30% milk to water if you're using whole milk . Bam! ... it's like magic. The protein in the milk somehow does a number on those blemishes, when mixed with sunshine.

And to think I have been dissing organic solutions.


Is the stem core borer the same as the squash vine borer we have throughout the U.S. or is it the pickleworm that spreads north from FL every spring? Control for squash vine borers in the mid atlantic is to plant very early and get a crop of summer squash before they destroy the plants or plant very late after egg laying ends in mid July. Some really warm years there is a second generation but that's probably every year where you are.

My biggest disease problem is DOWNY mildew. Planting early before it becomes endemic each season is the best mitigation. It usually appears here in August and is another problem that spreads from the subtropics each season and is wiped out by winter.

our main problems in the past few seasons have been dry air and lack of instability.
Shear is always here, but dry air is making it worse...Because every little bit of dry air present is being driven in to storms from the slightest shear..

I say we could struggle to reach 8 storms, though my guess would be 8/4/1 for the whole season. I think the Caribbean and gulf will get at least one decent storm this year.

10 days out but interesting for south florida........................................... ..............
Hmmm.... *out east*



Yes, Dr M, that is impressive. Least the GW skeptics are keeping it real.

Quoting 571. Neapolitan:

A scientific paper just out suggests that, protestations from some aside, both the frequency and intensity of deluges such as the ones Dr. Masters wrote about in the current topic may very well be--and, in fact, likely are--increasing due to climate change:



Full article


Pretty basic physics really.
Quoting 596. JrWeathermanFL:

our main problems in the past few seasons have been dry air and lack of instability.
Shear is always here, but dry air is making it worse...Because every little bit of dry air present is being driven in to storms from the slightest shear..

I say we could struggle to reach 8 storms, though my guess would be 8/4/1 for the whole season. I think the Caribbean and gulf will get at least one decent storm this year.


That was me guess back in May..I up the number to 14/7/2