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Extreme Jet Stream Bringing U.S. Record Heat, Record Cold, and Flash Flooding

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:11 PM GMT on July 03, 2013

The jet steam is exhibiting unusual behavior over the U.S., a pattern we've seen become increasingly common in summertime over the past decade. There's a sharp trough of low pressure over the Central U.S., and equally sharp ridges of high pressure over the Western U.S. and East Coast. Since the jet acts as the boundary between cool, Canadian air to the north and warm, subtropical air to the south, this means that hot extremes are penetrating unusually far to the north under the ridges of high pressure, and cold extremes are extending unusually far to the south under the trough of low pressure. The ridge over the Western U.S., though slowly weakening, is still exceptionally intense. This ridge, which on Sunday brought Earth its highest temperatures in a century (129°F or 54°C in Death Valley, California), was responsible for more record-breaking heat on Tuesday. July 2. Most notably, Redding, California hit 116°, just 2° short of their all-time record. Death Valley had a low of 104°, the second hottest night on record since 1920 (the hottest was just last summer!) Numerous daily high temperature records were set in Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, Montana, Oregon, and Washington. It was the opposite story in the Central U.S., where the southwards-plunging jet stream allowed record cold air to invade Texas. Waco, Texas, hit 58°F this morning (July 3), the coldest temperature ever measured in July in the city. Numerous airports in Texas, Nebraska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas, and Missouri set new daily record low temperatures this morning. And over the Eastern U.S., the northward-pointing branch of the jet stream is creating a potentially dangerous flooding situation, by pulling a moisture-laden flow of tropical air from the Gulf of Mexico over the Florida Panhandle north-northeastward into the Appalachians. Up to five inches of rain is expected over this region over the next few days, and wunderground's severe weather map is showing flash flood warnings for locations in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.


Figure 1. Jet stream winds in the upper atmosphere at a pressure level of 300 mb on July 3, 2013. The jet had an unusually extreme configuration for summer, with a sharp trough of low pressure over the Central U.S., and equally sharp ridges of high pressure over the Western U.S. and East Coast. Image from the wunderground jet stream page.


Figure 2. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Wednesday, July 10, 2013. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Third extreme jet stream pattern of the past five weeks
This week's extreme jet stream pattern is the third time in the past five weeks that we've seen a highly amplified ridge-trough pattern that has led to extreme weather. The others:

1) The end of May and beginning of June, when the $22 billion Central European floods occurred. A high pressure ridge became stuck over northern Scandanavia, causing all-time May heat records--as high as 87°F--at stations north of the Arctic Circle in Finland. The high pressure ridge blocked low pressure systems from moving north, and a series of two low pressure systems dumped record rains over Austria and Germany, creating the highest floods ever seen on portions of the Danube River. The $22 billion price tag made it the 5th most expensive non-U.S. weather-related disaster in world history.

2) June 18 - 22, when a ridge of high pressure over Alaska broke all-time heat records in the state, with unofficial readings as high as 98°F. A low pressure system became trapped over Alberta, Canada, bringing the city of Calgary a $3 billion flood disaster. This was the most expensive flood in Canadian history, and third most expensive natural disaster of any kind for the country. The only more expensive disasters were a 1989 wildfire ($4.2 billion) and a 1977 drought ($3 billion.)

As I discussed in a March 2013 post, "Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?", research published this year by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in German found that extreme summertime jet stream patterns had become twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of these extreme patterns occurred in August 2002, during Central Europe's previous 1-in-100 to 1-in-500 year flood. When the jet stream goes into one of these extreme configurations, it freezes in its tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the jet stream lies. The scientists found that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, a unique resonance pattern capable of causing this behavior was resulting. According to an email I received from German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf, one of the co-authors of the study, unusually extreme jet stream amplitudes likely played a role in the May - June Central European flooding event.

Tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico
Yellow means caution: the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has drawn a yellow circle on their Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook around an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. In their 8 am EDT July 2 outlook, NHC gave the region a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Friday. Satellite loops show only minimal heavy thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance, which is suffering from high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. Dry air due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure over the Western Gulf of Mexico is also interfering with development. The upper-level trough is expected to weaken and pull to the north late this week, bringing more favorable conditions for development over the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Friday. The atmosphere will moisten and wind shear may fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. The disturbance should move west to west-northwest, arriving near the Texas/Mexico border region on Monday or Tuesday. None of the reliable forecast models predict the disturbance will develop.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Monday. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it will be worth watching for development late this week.

Jeff Masters
Flooding in Chapel Hill, NC
Flooding in Chapel Hill, NC
Franklin Street in Chapel Hill, NC

Extreme Weather Heat Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Back from fireworks at a local area. Pretty good show tonight!
1502. sar2401
Quoting Camille33:

The sw gom vorticity growing.


Do you mean the blob that's currently headed SE over land in the Yucatan? That's the only thing I see happening in the SW Gulf.
1503. Patrap
Beautiful fireworks here in grand cayman
Quoting 1433. Envoirment:
CMC predicting a system to start forming in the WPAC in a couple days



It has it strengthening into quite a powerful Typhoon



It has no support from the GFS what so ever, so will be interesting to see how things pan out and will give us something to possibly watch in the next few days if anyone is interested in that part of the Pacific.


oh wow... that's a scary scenario there...
still some time out, but bears watching
1506. Patrap
Gulf Of Mexico - False Color RGB Loop

click image for Loop

ZOOM & Controls are active


Quoting 1505. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


oh wow... that's a scary scenario there...
still some time out, but bears watching
my hurricane season outlook isn't in there.
1508. Patrap
Taking shape that low N of the Antilles...



1510. JLPR2
Erick is a happy Tropical Storm, looking very healthy.

1511. Dakster
How do you know he isn't mad because he isn't a hurricane?
Quoting 1510. JLPR2:
Erick is a happy Tropical Storm, looking very healthy.




Those are some seriously cold cloud-tops. Pushing -90C, in fact.

Erick has shown hints of an eye feature on infrared. If so, rapid intensification could be occurring.

The center remains partially exposed to the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection as a result of moderate east-northeasterly shear. Nevertheless, steady intensification is expected for the next few days as shear is forecast to remain moderate.


CMC predicting a system to start forming in the WPAC in a couple days

It has it strengthening into quite a powerful Typhoon

It has no support from the GFS what so ever, so will be interesting to see how things pan out and will give us something to possibly watch in the next few days if anyone is interested in that part of the Pacific.




oh wow... that's a scary scenario there...
still some time out, but bears watching


Quoting 1514. Civicane49:
The center remains partially exposed to the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection as a result of moderate east-northeasterly shear. Nevertheless, steady intensification is expected for the next few days as shear is forecast to remain moderate.



That loop seems to be at least 2 hours old now. A lot could have changed between now and then. I'm away from my computer so I'm missing all my links to things like this. However, Erick's structure seems to be changing quickly.
Quoting 1513. MississippiWx:
Erick has shown hints of an eye feature on infrared. If so, rapid intensification could be occurring.


According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the low-level center of Erick is located largely northeast of that huge convective mass. They could be off though.

Quoting 1517. TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the low-level center of Erick is located largely northeast of that huge convective mass. They could be off though.



Hard to tell at night. Mid-level crap can fool you big time. I know this has been a tilted storm for a while, so it's quite possible that I'm off. Like I said before, I'm away from my normal bookmarks to tell more precisely. Was just a guess. The loop Civicane posted looks to be old and probably what the NHC was using for center placement. Might have changed by then, but I'm probably wrong.
Erick is a disorganized mess and highly sheared...with the llc exposed to the ne of the convection blow-up.The higher tstm's are the result of mid level vort-max.
Quoting 1504. wunderkidcayman:
Beautiful fireworks here in grand cayman

Aren't the Cayman islands owned by the UK?
Repost for those that missed it.

Erick has intensified a bit quicker in the short term than expected, but it shouldn't affect the eventual peak much.

Quoting 1388. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is unlikely I'll be home by the time I normally release my blogs, so I made this one early. Read if you wish.

Dalila dying, Five-E intensifying; Several areas in the Atlantic, none of concern
1522. Dakster

Quoting 1520. Doppler22:

Aren't the Cayman islands owned by the UK?

Those may be fighting words to a few bloggers here.
Quoting 1520. Doppler22:

Aren't the Cayman islands owned by the UK?
The fireworks are for all the US citizens down there today visiting their money on their day off....






LOL.. just kidding... lol
1524. Patrap
Hail covers the ground 2 ft deep in Santa Rosa NM Weds.



www.facebook.com/SantaRosaFireDepartment
1525. Patrap
CIMSS vort maps actually show a fairly stacked system with the 500mb center being slightly to the north of the 850mb center. The main convection is not to the north of the originally proposed center.
Quoting 1522. Dakster:


Those may be fighting words to a few bloggers here.

XD i'm not saying they can't share the celebration or have one of their own... I just didn't know they did something too
1528. Patrap
The Cayman Islands (/ˈkeɪmən/ or /keɪˈmæn/) are a British Overseas Territory located in the western Caribbean Sea. The territory comprises the three islands of Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, located south of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica. The Cayman Islands are considered to be part of the geographic Western Caribbean Zone as well as the Greater Antilles. The territory is a major world offshore financial centre.
1529. nigel20
Good evening all!
1530. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Those are some seriously cold cloud-tops. Pushing -90C, in fact.


How strong do you think it is at the moment?
Quoting 1508. Patrap:
Boiling down there.
Link
With pressures currently low over africa and the combo of a mjo present over there...the easterly waves will be vigorous.Sinking motion is present over the majority of the basin and will leave this waves void of tstms until the west car/bahamas/gulf...if any of the waves survives the track...long term tropical issues could develop.
Quoting 1530. nigel20:

How strong do you think it is at the moment?

I think 45 mph is a good call, though I wouldn't be surprised if it was slightly stronger.
Would really surprise me if Erick's center hasn't moved under the main ball of convection. Shear has decreased to 5-10kts. I believe it's more organized than you think.

1535. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think 45 mph is a good call, though I wouldn't be surprised if it was slightly stronger.

Agreed. Thanks Cody!
Quoting 1532. Camille33:
Link
With pressures currently low over africa and the combo of a mjo present over there...the easterly waves will be vigorous.Sinking motion is present over the majority of the basin and will leave this waves vogue of tstms until the west car/bahamas/gulf...if any of the waves survives the track...long term tropical issues could develop.
That's not the right word there, cam, and for the life of me I can't think of the word you DO mean... I know exactly what you mean, too... :o/
void?
that is a funny looking high..
Erick may attain hurricane status after all.
Quoting 1538. hurricanes2018:
that is a funny looking high..

Yep also a bad looking high for later in year hurricanes could be steered up to southeast coast.
ERICK
Quoting 1520. Doppler22:

Aren't the Cayman islands owned by the UK?


Cayman is British
Quoting 1522. Dakster:


Those may be fighting words to a few bloggers here.

...
Quoting 1523. BahaHurican:
The fireworks are for all the US citizens down there today visiting their money on their day off....






LOL.. just kidding... lol

Although cayman is British it's more American than British in businesses and lifestyle it's like if the British takes over Florida

Quoting 1528. Patrap:
The Cayman Islands (/ˈkeɪmən/ or /keɪˈmæn/) are a British Overseas Territory located in the western Caribbean Sea. The territory comprises the three islands of Grand Cayman, Cayman Brac and Little Cayman, located south of Cuba and northwest of Jamaica. The Cayman Islands are considered to be part of the geographic Western Caribbean Zone as well as the Greater Antilles. The territory is a major world offshore financial centre.


Just to let you guys know cayman is not rich all the money belongs mostly to the US and Cayman just keeps it secure for the US so once you put the money in and then when you take out its the same we don't really get anything out of it right now cayman is in such a bad state that some Africa and mid eastern country are better than us I personally say the US is better off than us
Quoting 1540. allancalderini:
Erick may attain hurricane status after all.

You know looking at it it might now Erick has a better chance of RI
1546. JLPR2
That TW in the CATL is a fighter, it went from being completely engulfed in SAL with almost no convection or moisture to this little area of convection even though it is still surrounded by SAL. If the SAL weren't there it would probably be a tropical system at this moment.

What is that?

I am highly confused as to the location of the center of Erick. Just saying.

Really think it's farther south than what the NHC has, though.
Erick might have a shot at hurricane status the way it's behaving tonight.
No development expected in SW Gulf -Greg Bostwick KFDM 6
1551. nigel20
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Cayman is British

...

Although cayman is British it's more American than British in businesses and lifestyle it's like if the British takes over Florida



Just to let you guys know cayman is not rich all the money belongs mostly to the US and Cayman just keeps it secure for the US so once you put the money in and then when you take out its the same we don't really get anything out of it right now cayman is in such a bad state that some Africa and mid eastern country are better than us I personally say the US is better off than us

I'll have to disagree with you this time. The Cayman Islands is doing a lot better than most of the Caribbean, Maybe with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago and The Bahamas. While the unemployment rate in the Cayman Islands was about 9.8% in 2012, It's still better than that of Jamaica (14.2), Puerto Rico (over 13%) and Grenada (over 20%). The debt to GDP ratios in Jamaica, Grenada is more than 100%...It's actually over 140% here in Jamaica. The per capita income PPP in the Cayman Islands is over US$40 000 or well above the Latin American and Caribbean average of US$11 000...the per capita income here in Jamaica is lower than the Latin American and Caribbean average at only US$9100.
The PDO has went haywire.

Looks neuposegative to me.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013

...RAINBANDS OF ERICK BRUSHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 100.7W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
NNNN
still at 10%
Quoting 1551. nigel20:

I'll have to disagree with you this time. The Cayman Islands is doing a lot better than most of the Caribbean, Maybe with the exception of Trinidad and Tobago and The Bahamas. While the unemployment rate in the Cayman Islands was about 9.8% in 2012, It's still better than that of Jamaica (14.2), Puerto Rico (over 13%) and Grenada (over 20%). The debt to GDP ratios in Jamaica, Grenada is more than 100%...It's actually over 140% here in Jamaica. The per capita income PPP in the Cayman Islands is over US$40 000 or well above the Latin American and Caribbean average of US$11 000...the per capita income here in Jamaica is lower than the Latin American and Caribbean average at only US$9100.


Ok maybe I'm giving cayman less than it deserves but what you are sayin is modest the people in financial dept kinda like to round things off in the thousands
Quoting 1555. hurricanes2018:
still at 10%

Duh what where you expecting
wind shear going down fast
1561. nigel20
Good night fellow bloggers...I'm off to bed!
Good evening to you all!!

Has anyone taken a moment to look at the 0z runs yet?

Interesting to note changes in the GFS 850vort as compared to the 12z run.
Quoting 1562. huntsvle:
Good evening to you all!!

Has anyone taken a moment to look at the 0z runs yet?

Interesting to note changes in the GFS 850vort as compared to the 12z run.


Changes relative to what? The Gulf system?
Quoting 1563. KoritheMan:


Changes relative to what? The Gulf system?


yes
Quoting 1547. TropicalAnalystwx13:
What is that?

May I say and eye and RI.
Quoting 1564. huntsvle:


yes


What are you noticing?

First thing I saw was that the vorticity is supposed to split, with some of the energy moving into the Texas/Mexico area, with the other moving into Louisiana.
Quoting 1565. allancalderini:
May I say and eye and RI.


Sorry, but that's not even a warm spot (yet), much less an eye. :P
Quoting 1566. KoritheMan:


What are you noticing?

First thing I saw was that the vorticity is supposed to split, with some of the energy moving into the Texas/Mexico area, with the other moving into Louisiana.

Development looks less likely now though
Quoting 1568. Stormchaser121:

Development looks less likely now though


Because of the vorticity split, or because of the shear?
Quoting 1569. KoritheMan:


Because of the vorticity split, or because of the shear?

Well...NHC still says 10% i see barely any convection...and the local mets here are saying not gonna happen. I havent checked TWC yet though.
Quoting 1568. Stormchaser121:

Development looks less likely now though


I agree wholly with that statement. Regardless of development, it will likely get sheared out as it approaches the coastline. Just looking for general thoughts, not making a statement either way. The GFS has been really flip floppy with this.
Quoting 1570. Stormchaser121:

Well...NHC still says 10% i see barely any convection...and the local mets here are saying not gonna happen. I havent checked TWC yet though.


I never thought it was gonna happen. But if you read my blog, I highlight how I think this system could quickly spin up (not to a tropical cyclone, just an invigoration of the surface low) as it approaches Louisiana.

For those who don't want to defer to my blog, it's because the system may starting moving in tandem with the shear vector before it moves inland.
Quoting 1570. Stormchaser121:

Well...NHC still says 10% i see barely any convection...and the local mets here are saying not gonna happen. I havent checked TWC yet though.


From what I gather out of all that, at VERY best, the system might make it into a very weak TD. I will take it though, we need the rain. Ensemble members are keeping it an open wave, though. Either way, we'll take the rain however we can get it at this point.
.
Quoting 1567. KoritheMan:


Sorry, but that's not even a warm spot (yet), much less an eye. :P
Ouch Kori that hurt.lol thank though.
Caribbean

GOM
1577. zampaz
Quoting 1537. Skyepony:
void?

Yes, thanks for asking.
Just came back from watching great 4th of July fireworks show at a local area. No change in strength for both Dalila and Erick from the ATCF update.

EP, 04, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1114W, 30, 1006, TD,

EP, 05, 2013070506, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1008W, 40, 1004, TS,
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...DALILA REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 111.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

DALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH
IN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A PERFECTLY PLACED
ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS
FOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE
CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL
STORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION
TO CEASE FOR GOOD. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A
REMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE
POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
OF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS
NORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...CENTER OF ERICK PASSING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 101.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

ERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...
AND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT
ASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT. BASED ON
THIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.

THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM
THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL
MOTION 300/11. OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE
ERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO
THE MEXICAN COAST.

ERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE
CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR. ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25
KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...
IF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD
RESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK
TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM
MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Still no organization at all:



Pressures are falling at the buoy nearest to the convection going off at 25N 89W, but they're still fairly high.

In the interim, the convection that was previously seen off the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has evaporated. There seems to be additional showers and thunderstorms beginning to ignite in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We'll see if that persists.

Most likely, the trough and its associated shear conveyor will stifle any chance of tropical development. I wouldn't expect much of a change tomorrow.
Quoting 1584. KoritheMan:
Still no organization at all:



Pressures are falling at the buoy nearest to the convection going off at 25N 89W, but they're still fairly high.

In the interim, the convection that was previously seen off the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has evaporated. There seems to be additional showers and thunderstorms beginning to ignite in the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico. We'll see if that persists.

Most likely, the trough and its associated shear conveyor will stifle any chance of tropical development. I wouldn't expect much of a change tomorrow.

TX/LA probably wont get a storm until the time the usually hit. August/September.
Quoting 1585. Stormchaser121:

TX/LA probably wont get a storm until the time the usually hit. August/September.


Most of our hits don't occur this early in the year. Last July storm was Cindy in 2005, and before that, Danny in 1997.

I live near Baton Rouge, btw.
The wave just come off the African coast seems to have survived transit to waters and has some spin:


Link
1588. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..have a safe day everyone........................................
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A FEW RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD EXACERBATE CONDITIONS AND CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN WATER
LEVELS.
Quoting 1586. KoritheMan:


Most of our hits don't occur this early in the year. Last July storm was Cindy in 2005, and before that, Danny in 1997.

I live near Baton Rouge, btw.

I live in southeast TX.
1590. Gearsts
GFS at 105HR
Erick is showing signs of strengthening; curved bands have developed to the north and east, and the deep convection appears to wrap around the center over the past several hours.

Quoting 1560. hurricanes2018:


Looks like that ULL Doc and Levi mentioned as well as the tropical wave is still trucking west to the Bahamas and Florida. Appears the ULL is ahead of the TW. Don't see any models picking up on it. Lot of moisture around though!

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

The wave train is active on the long range GFS. Let's wait and see if in future runs development begins with one of those.

Quoting 1594. FtMyersgal:


Mornin' FMG -
Looks like a healthy conglomeration. Levi's vid mentioned how the focus on the tropics would be shifting mid-July to the African waves...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 5 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

Quoting 1597. mikatnight:


Mornin' FMG -
Looks like a healthy conglomeration. Levi's vid mentioned how the focus on the tropics would be shifting mid-July to the African waves...


Good morning mikat! Yes, we may see the CV wave train soon. Will be watching the models to see if there is any predicted development.
u see two storms on here
1601. SLU
This ridge is frightening

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013

...ERICK INTENSIFYING SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 101.6W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

It would be nice if the mess over the Yucatan would wind up in Texas, but the Panhandle has had enough! Unfortunately, looks like Mother Nature is not of the same mind and Florida/Georgia will get more rain.
Quoting 1602. GeoffreyWPB:
Here comes the ULL.
Quoting 1601. SLU:
This ridge is frightening



It sure is. With Cape Verde season right around the corner, there would be big trouble for the Caribbean islands and CONUS as the ridge would steer the storms to those areas.
1607. SLU
The negative PDO has vanished almost unnoticed

1608. SLU
Quoting 1606. Civicane49:


It sure is. With Cape Verde season right around the corner, there would be big trouble for the Caribbean islands and CONUS as the ridge would steer the storms to those areas.


Yes the ridge is becoming more relevant now.
Quoting 1600. hurricanes2018:
u see two storms on here


Sea Level Pressure (post 1595) shows nothing though...
Quoting 1591. SFLWeatherman:
GFS at 105HR
Tuesday looking wet in SFL.
just look at the climo map does take much to figure the action heats up mid july in the atlantic mdr
SLU this ridge is not only frightening, but looks very ominous for the residents of the Caribbean islands. with the hard economic times engulfing the region. none of the islands can do with a hurricane strike at this time.
amazing that the gfs a wk ago was smelling out a low near the keys.
here in ST lucia not eoh is bein done to sensitise the population of what appears to be a long hot hurricane season. the onus is the carnival season which is about 10 days time. it could be very ironical the wave over Africa now could be a potential threat around the same time as the carnival.
Enough with the rain already. Panama City is floating. I've never seen it flooded like it did yesterday and so fast. The rain at times was coming so hard sideways it almost looked like silver fabric shimmering and not rain. Lots of people flooded out of their houses.
Today's Good Morning! pic...

6:23 am (10:23 GMT)

From Bicentennial Park in Lantana. The bleachers were still there from last night's celebration, so it afforded me an elevated view over the (bridge) construction fence.

I've been uploading these pics to PhotoBucket, but I got a notification that I was nearing my "bandwidth limit". Even though I've only used a little over 10% of my storage allotment, it's the number of people viewing the pics (posted on this site) that made the difference. 'Til yesterday, I didn't even know there was a bandwidth limit.

I was using PhotoBucket since it was so easy compared to WU - until I discovered the "Upload directly from your phone" link on WU's site, which as it turns out, is just as easy as PB to upload pics. So, to heck with PhotoBucket, I'll be uploading my pics using WU, where the only concern over band width on that site is how fat your favorite musical group has gotten!
1617. Grothar
Images need no explanation.





The island looks BROWN again! Nothing's happening here.
looks like the E Pac is on its way too the 4th hurricane of the season all so this looks like that this will be the last TS for them
Quoting 1617. Grothar:
Images need no explanation.







Look at all the pretty colors! I wonder what they all mean...?

Hey, Big Guy -
I posted a Kate Smith vid yesterday, not sure if it was the one you had, I came in late on that. Man, she had The Voice. It was the one from the movie where the song was introduced. I noticed our future POTUS, Ronald Reagan, was in the clip towards the end.
12z Best Track up to 50kts for Erick.

EP, 05, 2013070512, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1016W, 50, 998, TS
Looks like Erick is building a rather large eyewall.

Aussie go to bed already?


Current positions of moon and sun.
1625. sar2401
Quoting mikatnight:
Today's Good Morning! pic...

6:23 am (10:23 GMT)

From Bicentennial Park in Lantana. The bleachers were still there from last night's celebration, so it afforded me an elevated view over the (bridge) construction fence.

I've been uploading these pics to PhotoBucket, but I got a notification that I was nearing my "bandwidth limit". Even though I've only used a little over 10% of my storage allotment, it's the number of people viewing the pics (posted on this site) that made the difference. 'Til yesterday, I didn't even know there was a bandwidth limit.

I was using PhotoBucket since it was so easy compared to WU - until I discovered the "Upload directly from your phone" link on WU's site, which as it turns out, is just as easy as PB to upload pics. So, to heck with PhotoBucket, I'll be uploading my pics using WU, where the only concern over band width on that site is how fat your favorite musical group has gotten!

Good morning, Mike. Very tropical looking picture to start the day. I'm assuming Dexter must be out hunting crabs somewhere. :-)

The direct upload of pictures does work well here, and it will automatically resize them wihout losing too much detail. I've grown to hate PhotoBucket over the years.

Looks like most of Florida is off the hook today for heavy rain. About the only place that's still at risk in the Panhandle around PCB and SE AL. I don't know if you saw my posts from last evening, but I uploaded a radar loop that showed the actual collapse of the blob about 6:00 last night. Except for losing about half a big tree in the backyard to outflow winds as the blob collaped, I was glad to see that whole thing finally start to die. The only people that are sad are a few wishcasters here, since it looks even less likely that anything will develop in the Gulf now.

Got to go find a tree service to haul off the remains of my broken tree. Free firewood for anyone who wants it!
all so the E PAC is up two 5 name storms why we have olny thing 2 name storms i wounder when that will turn around
1627. bwi
G ood fireworks watching weather in DC last night.
Quoting mikatnight:
Aussie go to bed already?


Current positions of moon and sun.

I don't go to bed when the sun goes down. I am not cave man. LOL
Quoting 1617. Grothar:
Images need no explanation.









Mornin' Gro!
Quoting 1601. SLU:
This ridge is frightening



Whoe.. hopefully it doesn't stick around. If things don't change come mid August we could be in for a long season.
olny 3 more name storms too go and the E pac will be up too Henriette all ready
nice spin here!!
Quoting 1626. Tazmanian:
all so the E PAC is up two 5 name storms why we have olny thing 2 name storms i wounder when that will turn around


Good Morning. When the E-Pac quiets down based on the observed inverse relationship between the two basins this time of the year (when the seasons overlap). Erick is now dominating the large scale environment in the SW Atlantic as the trof lifts out. I would not expect any significant Atlantic storms for several weeks.

Looks like the only possibility for now might be the ULL moving towards the Bahamas in a few days. Big roll of the dice when you consider that it would have to work it's way down to the surface.......This is a rare type of event:

A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Monday. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it will be worth watching for development late this week.

I am not holding my breath on this one but we will see what happens.
1634. Grothar
Quoting 1620. mikatnight:


Look at all the pretty colors! I wonder what they all mean...?

Hey, Big Guy -
I posted a Kate Smith vid yesterday, not sure if it was the one you had, I came in late on that. Man, she had The Voice. It was the one from the movie where the song was introduced. I noticed our future POTUS, Ronald Reagan, was in the clip towards the end.


Everyone in that video was a big star or character actor at the studio. It is just that no one would recognize them today.
1636. hydrus
The upper low feature is looking better.
Quoting 1625. sar2401:

Good morning, Mike. Very tropical looking picture to start the day. I'm assuming Dexter must be out hunting crabs somewhere.


Hi Jim,
I noticed the popularity of the morning pic depends greatly on whether or not Dex is in it! I tried to get him to pose on top of the bleacher, but he would have nothing to do with that, much preferring to sniff about for treats left by last night's throng.

Sorry to learn of your tree's misfortune, but glad to know The Blob petered out. I was too tired and stuffed to do anything last night but hit the sack. The chef for Tapa's restaurant lives next door, and he treated us with a long list of savory and delicious delights from about 5-9pm. I was out like a light by 10:15.
1638. etxwx

An algae-covered public beach in Qingdao, China, on Thursday - image Agence France Presse

Huge Algae Bloom Afflicts Coastal Chinese City
by Andrew Jacobs - New York Times
July 5 2013
BEIJING — In what has become an annual summer scourge, the coastal Chinese city of Qingdao has been hit by a near-record algae bloom that has left its popular beaches fouled with a green, stringy muck.

The State Oceanic Administration said an area larger than the state of Connecticut had been affected by the mat of “sea lettuce,” as it is known in Chinese, which is generally harmless to humans but chokes off marine life and invariably chases away tourists as it begins to rot.

For now, beachgoers appeared to be amused by the outbreak, at least according to the Chinese media, which in recent days has featured startling images of swimmers lounging on bright green beds of algae, tossing it around with glee or piling it atop of one another as if it were sand.

Local officials, however, are not amused. Last month they declared a “large-scale algae disaster,” dispatching hundreds of boats and bulldozers to clean up the waters off Qingdao, a former German concession in Shandong Province that is famous for its beer and beaches. As of Monday, workers and volunteers had cleared about 19,800 tons of the algae, according to the Qingdao government. While valued for its nutrition — or as an ingredient in fertilizers and biomass energy production — algae in large quantities can prove dangerous as it decomposes, producing toxic hydrogen sulfide gas. It also smells like rotting eggs.


More here.
1639. hydrus
Quoting 1601. SLU:
This ridge is frightening

Yep..I feel like I have a cannon aimed at me.
Quoting 1636. hydrus:
The upper low feature is looking better.



its heading in two 5 too 10kt of wind shear





this could be are next name storm
1641. pcola57
Good Morning to All..Hope evryone had a safe and enjoyable 4th..
This mess in th GOM isn't going anywhere fast..
Be it large or small in the coming days..Getting t'storms now..
Was dry and humid yesterday at my location with just a brief early morning sprinkle to start the day..
As evening set in fireworks were all over..
I'm glad they had their fun after all..

Still a mess out there..



My Wu Current radar..



Hit and miss showers at the beach..
Surf is very rough..
Red Flags flying..



1642. Thrawst
.
Quoting 1633. weathermanwannabe:


Good Morning. When the E-Pac quiets down based on the observed inverse relationship between the two basins this time of the year (when the seasons overlap). Erick is now dominating the large scale environment in the SW Atlantic as the trof lifts out. I would not expect any significant Atlantic storms for several weeks.

Looks like the only possibility for now might be the ULL moving towards the Bahamas in a few days. Big roll of the dice when you consider that it would have to work it's way down to the surface.......This is a rare type of event:

A large upper-level cold-cored low pressure system over the middle of the North Atlantic will move to the southwest during the week, and this low is expected to arrive in the Bahamas by Sunday and South Florida by Monday. Although the models do not show that this low will will acquire a surface circulation and develop tropical characteristics, it will be worth watching for development late this week.

I am not holding my breath on this one but we will see what happens.




we may see a TS or STS out of that low
Quoting 1636. hydrus:
The upper low feature is looking better.


If trends continue I wont be surprised to see a invest up soon.
Quoting 1638. etxwx:


All they need is a yellow submarine in that shot...
Good morning all. Cloudy, 82 with flash flood watch up until Monday morning here in NOLA
ULL in the Atlantic is becoming more organized.
Here is the 500mb (mid-level) shot of the low moving towards the Bahamas:

Link

Here is the full blown low at the upper levels (200mb):

Link

Some vorticity at the mid-levels but nothing at the lower levels yet............Have to keep an eye over the next 24-48 on the mid-level to see if the vort increases and takes a shot at developing a lower level circulation by the time it reaches the Bahamas and Florida.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1650. Dakster

Quoting 1645. mikatnight:


All they need is a yellow submarine in that shot...

That comment probably flew over half the bloggers heads here.
1651. pcola57
This is SST for July 2nd..

I'm wondering how much this mess in the GOM will lower those values and be borderline for development..
This mess has a few more days I'm thinking..


Quoting 1644. Tropicsweatherpr:


If trends continue I wont be surprised to see a invest up soon.


Not even close to invest status.......It is not a persistent lower level/surface disturbance; purely an upper level low at the moment. If it works down to the surface on Monday, and that coincides with low sheer and an extra burst of heat from the Gulf Stream, we could see something try to spin up. By that time, it would not have time to develop much further before it reached South Florida.

Much too soon to assume that it would become an invest over the next 48 hours.
1653. Grothar
Look at this pattern. Any feature in the Atlantic would most likely more west toward Florida, whether it develops or not. Watch for any ULL which may merge with a tropical wave.

1654. hydrus
1655. hydrus
Quoting 1653. Grothar:
Look at this pattern. Any feature in the Atlantic would most likely more west toward Florida, whether it develops or not. Watch for any ULL which may merge with a tropical wave.

yep...We talked about that...morning
Quoting 1653. Grothar:
Look at this pattern. Any feature in the Atlantic would most likely more west toward Florida, whether it develops or not. Watch for any ULL which may merge with a tropical wave.



Which ain't gonna happen

What I do see is an ULL moving W, a tropical wave moving W, a ULH moving W, the Upper level low NW of the tropical wave and the upper level high on top of the tropical wave and all moving W.
Wow this tropical wave is one of the best I've see this year it's spinning and looking more like a storm