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Extreme flood in Russia kills 171

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:14 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

Earth's deadliest flood of 2012 hit the Black Sea area of Russia on Saturday, where 300 mm (11.8") of rain fell in less than 24 hours. The resulting flood waters swept through the town of Krymsk in the Krasnodar region early Saturday, killing at least 171 people. The heavy rains were caused by a low pressure system that tracked just north of the region. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the low brought moisture-laden air from the Black Sea northwards over the mountains bordering the Black Sea. As the air was forced upwards by the mountains, its water vapor cooled and condensed into heavy rains. The rains were increased due to ocean temperatures in the Eastern Black Sea that were more than 2°C (3.6°F) above average. The extra heat in the ocean allowed much more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Rare 1-in-20 year heavy precipitation events like the one that caused the Krasnodar flood are expected to increase in frequency due to climate change, as the waters of the Black Sea warm. According to the 2011 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), issued by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1-in-20 year extreme precipitation events are likely to occur with a 1-in-11 to 1-in-15 year frequency by the year 2100 in the Black Sea area of Russia. A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, increasing the odds of very heavy precipitation events.


Figure 1. Flood damage in Krymsk, Russia, from Saturday's deadly flood. Image credit: Associated Press.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Russia's Krasnodar region along the northeast coast of the Black Sea, taken at 09:30 UTC Friday, July 6, 2012. The counter-clockwise flow of air around a spiraling low pressure system centered just north of the region was bringing a flow or moisture-laden air from the Black Sea over the city of Krymsk. Image credit: NASA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no threat areas to discuss in the Atlantic, and none of the reliable computer models are developing a tropical cyclone over the next seven days.

I'll be back this afternoon with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012.

Jeff Masters

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting allancalderini:
where do you think Ernesto will form in the Gulf of Meixco, near the cape verde islands or from a frontal system?

Central Atlantic.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah rain cooled air. Our temps have been really low lately. It's great! :-)



Thunderstorm Rain in Vicinity

72°F

22°C

Humidity100%
Wind SpeedS 6 mph
Barometer30.01 in
Dewpoint72°F (22°C)
Visibility3.00 mi


Im at 88 already and not to mention the humidity is like having a blanket on
Quoting allancalderini:
where do you think Ernesto will form in the Gulf of Meixco, near the cape verde islands or from a frontal system?
probably from a frontal system
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Central Atlantic.


along the ITCZ or bermuda area
any evidence of hurricane eyewall replacement of emilia? she need to replace this eye to be annular
I don't see any evidence yet.


Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
According to the Washington Post weatherblog it did hit degrees at Reagan National for one minute on Saturday 7/7. But that is not long enough to count as a record. It needs to be 3 minutes.
But we broke a record on Sunday...
storms are firing up in North Carolina now,hopefully they will cool things off some up there
Hurricane 05E

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 12:55:25 N Lon : 110:32:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 960.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -27.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.0 degrees

************************************************* ***



Quoting washingtonian115:
But we broke a record on Sunday...



I apologize. I made a hash of my comment originally and have edited it.
in my entire lifetime i have Never seen..golfball sized hail...have you?....................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

FLC053-119-091945-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120709T1945Z/
SUMTER FL-HERNANDO FL-
301 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HERNANDO AND WESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CROOM...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUSHNELL...MOVING WEST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 301 AND 309.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8243 2865 8242 2864 8209 2851 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 095DEG 13KT 2858 8221

$$
These storms are producing extreme lightning here NW of Orlando!

right on cue with my earlier statement
Weather doesn't repeat exactly.

But sometimes it rhymes.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
These storms are producing extreme lightning here NW of Orlando!

ST you be careful, that lightning already started a house fire in tarpon springs and in bushnell winds are over 70mph with golfball sized hail etc
Quoting LargoFl:
in my entire lifetime i have Never seen..golfball sized hail...have you?....................SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

FLC053-119-091945-
/O.CON.KTBW.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-120709T1945Z/
SUMTER FL-HERNANDO FL-
301 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN HERNANDO AND WESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR CROOM...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUSHNELL...MOVING WEST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 301 AND 309.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2846 8243 2865 8242 2864 8209 2851 8212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 095DEG 13KT 2858 8221

$$


It is downright dangerous over by my work in NW Seminole County.
Rutgers was updated



Quoting StormTracker2K:


It is downright dangerous over by my work in NW Seminole County.
gee stay safe over there, tons of warnings out there right now
Quoting weatherh98:


Im at 88 already and not to mention the humidity is like having a blanket on


Yuck! Hope you get some rain soon. I'm enjoying this while it lasts. lol
Thanks Dr. Masters...good afternoon everyone!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC069-117-127-092030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.SV.W.0066.120709T1925Z-120709T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ORANGE CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...LAKE MONROE...DE BARY...DEBARY...BLUE SPRING STATE PARK AND
CASSIA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MILES AN
HOUR AND OR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL. FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. IF THE STORM APPROACHES
YOU...SEEK SHELTER IN AN ENCLOSED BUILDING ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. KEEP
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 2911 8133 2891 8114 2873 8138 2876 8142
2878 8141 2879 8145 2893 8162
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 051DEG 2KT 2894 8130

$$


MOSES
Emilia won't be getting any stronger until she gets this dry air out... Intensity forecasts starting to look a little high...

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yuck! Hope you get some rain soon. I'm enjoying this while it lasts. lol


Thru the weekend

Quoting sunlinepr:
I hope some of that rain hits the drought area's of texas, they surely need it badly
Quoting sunlinepr:
Rutgers was updated




Hey sunline...it looks very dry in the NW Caribbean.
WU was predicting a 20% chance of rain for my area today..

We're getting more rain than we do for when they predict 50%+
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

FLZ041-141-091945-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
241 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT.

AT 237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM
10 MILES WEST OF DAYTONA INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF
PORT ORANGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE DAYTONA BEACH INTL SPEEDWAY...INTERSTATE
4...US 92...AND CASSADAGA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO
BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2885 8086 2880 8106 2881 8107 2883 8112
2880 8113 2879 8115 2926 8141 2927 8116
2937 8116 2937 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 302DEG 2KT 2919 8123 2903 8103

$$


MOSES
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yuck! Hope you get some rain soon. I'm enjoying this while it lasts. lol


crazy thing is is that its very cloudy and it already rained but that just shows you how hot it would have been...

please enjoy ahah
Quoting weatherh98:


along the ITCZ or bermuda area

East of the Leeward and Windward Islands.
That's an amazing radar animation sunlinepr.
thanks for the ones that answer me I think midway between the cape verde and the leeward/windward islands.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

East of the Leeward and Windward Islands.


okay
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Emilia won't be getting any stronger until she gets this dry air out... Intensity forecasts starting to look a little high...



There is no dry air en trained in Emilia..its well protected from it inside the overall envelope.

Why do you keep saying that?

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ah rain cooled air. Our temps have been really low lately. It's great! :-)



Thunderstorm Rain in Vicinity

72°F

22°C

Humidity100%
Wind SpeedS 6 mph
Barometer30.01 in
Dewpoint72°F (22°C)
Visibility3.00 mi
Southeast Texas and Florida Send Some Rain my way, 99 and Sunny here, there are Scattered Isolated Slow Moving Storms around here but very few people are getting any relief.
Quoting sunlinepr:
'

dirty high
Quoting CybrTeddy:
WU was predicting a 20% chance of rain for my area today..

We're getting more rain than we do for when they predict 50%+



These storms are producing an insane amount of lightning around here!
Quoting Patrap:


There is no dry air en trained in Emilia..its well protected from it inside the overall envelope.

Why do you keep saying that?


I think there is dryER air but not Dry air in there ATM
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

East of the Leeward and Windward Islands.



So east of 60W and south of 19N then.
This is me.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
NORTHWESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ORANGE CITY...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED
TO...LAKE MONROE...DE BARY...DEBARY...BLUE SPRING STATE PARK AND
CASSIA
Quoting weatherh98:


I think there is dryER air but not Dry air in there ATM

Correct... still enough to keep her from strengthening too much.
Hurricane Emilia

19:00 UTC Viz

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Southeast Texas and Florida Send Some Rain my way, 99 and Sunny here, there are Scattered Isolated Slow Moving Storms around here but very few people are getting any relief.


They've missed me until today. Hope some relief finds you. :)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Rutgers was updated





The El Yunque streamer has been sending scattered showers torwards San Juan this afternoon.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

So east of 60W and south of 19N then.

Somewhere in the box.

Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Emilia

19:00 UTC Viz



Looks similar to Emilia in July 1994. Although the 1994 version usually had a smaller eye I think. Maybe not. Definitely a pretty one. Sort of like Isabel in 2003.

NE of Houston


I think the drier air I'm referring to shows up best here...



Around the eye she is fine, but much of her west and southwest sides further out where that blue stripe is indicates drier, more stable air. Again, she should mix it out, but it may take a bit.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



just go ahead and box in the whole atl why dont you:)
20N will do, analyst :)

How hot did it get for you this weekend?
Thanks sunlinepr :)

Goes-13 Water Vapor Satellite:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think the drier air I'm referring to shows up best here...



Around the eye she is fine, but much of her west and southwest sides further out where that blue stripe is indicates drier, more stable air. Again, she should mix it out, but it may take a bit.


Its still has to be a major
Wilmington NC has not been below 80 degrees in the last 72 hours. Yucky.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
20N will do, analyst :)

How hot did it get for you this weekend?

Upper-90s with Humidity values in the 50s (%).
Quoting RitaEvac:
NE of Houston



Looks quite ominous
All dat from the Rainbow still.

Amazing. Ack!
Quoting nigel20:

Hey sunline...it looks very dry in the NW Caribbean.


Very hot and humid... we are getting small rain patches... It rains and the WV invades your home...
Maybe they'll cool it down later.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 483
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK
VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VA. ALONG/NEAR MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE
ZONES ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH LOWER 70S F
DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN MOST AREAS. SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29015.


...GUYER/WEISS
Going by the Long Floater WV Loop

One can EASILY see no Dry air entrainment of the Hurricane.


Emilia Long Floater - Water Vapor Imagery Loop

click image for loop





Quoting GTcooliebai:
Thanks sunlinepr :)

Goes-13 Water Vapor Satellite:



They were out for a week or so... Nice Gifs for posting in there....

Link
The 12z CMC shows the next storm developing quickly behind Emilia and the possibility for a 4th in a row to develop in about a week.
Quoting RitaEvac:
NE of Houston




Likes like Orlando right now looking west/northwest.
South Houston near Hwy 3


Mont Belviev


In the rain


Here goes Wilmington. I'm checking to see how Elizabeth City, my old stomping grounds, fared.
Quoting Levi32:
The 12z CMC shows the next storm developing quickly behind Emilia and the possibility for a 4th in a row to develop in about a week.


Good afternoon Levi32.
Quoting RitaEvac:
South Houston near Hwy 3


Mont Belviev


In the rain




what's this a wet T-shirt contest.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


what's this a wet T-shirt contest.


Guess so
Levi32 how close to Emilia 1994's peak intensity do you think the 2012 Emilia will get?
my development area
Quoting RitaEvac:
South Houston near Hwy 3


Mont Belviev


In the rain




Near where I live.. Loving the rain.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Very hot and humid... we are getting small rain patches... It rains and the WV invades your home...

It's 30C IN Kingston..feels like 35C and humidity is at 70%.
Quoting RitaEvac:
South Houston near Hwy 3


Mont Belviev


In the rain


You want heat my current heat index is 116 with mostly clear skies, forecast high for today was 88 and I am at 101 currently, I did drive thru some decent storms today about 50 miles from my house but they were not moving
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Good afternoon Levi32.


its morning in alaska...
Elizabeth City was about the same. Although not above 80 all the time EC did have a low of 83 on Sunday.

If I'm looking at the MJO chart correctly it seems as though it won't only be over Africa but the Caribbean will also see some up ward motion.
Eastern Pacific train is really getting going. We have a slowly decaying hurricane on the left, a rapidly intensifying hurricane on the right (which is also rapidly become beautiful by the second), and a possible disturbance to the east of that.

♪♫ And we rollin', rollin', rollin' on the river♪♫

eastern NC

Looking like a lot of east coast rain and not much for the west in the next 2 weeks... The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are very similar...



Quoting washingtonian115:
If I'm looking at the MJO chart correctly it seems as though it won't only be over Africa but the Caribbean will also see some up ward motion.


post it
Quoting weatherh98:


its morning in alaska...


Thanks for the clarification. Wife just called and have already picked up 2.43" of rain and it appears there is no end in sight.

So, the MJO is either going to enter the Western Hemisphere and Africa again, stay put in the Indian Ocean, or head to the West Pacific.

Quoting cyclonekid:
Eastern Pacific train is really getting going. We have a slowly decaying hurricane on the left, a rapidly intensifying hurricane on the right (which is also rapidly become beautiful by the second), and a possible disturbance to the east of that.

♪♫ And we rollin', rollin', rollin' on the river♪♫



its is far from rapid intensification, about halfway there lol
Microwave Morphed Imagery Composite:



20 knots of wind shear affecting the north part of Emilia.

Quoting weatherh98:


post it
I don't know how to post imagines..
Question Levi......How is it that these storms continue to develop in the same area? Aren't the storms cooling the waters? Sorry if it's a dumb question just seems that the cooler water wouldn't allow for development.....Thanks!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Thanks for the clarification. Wife just called and have already picked up 2.43" of rain and it appears there is no end in sight.



yes you arent exactly dry!
Quoting sunlinepr:


They were out for a week or so... Nice Gifs for posting in there....

Link
Oh yeah thanks I had that bookmarked already, I was thanking you for bringing to my attention that the site had been updated.
Dr. Masters,

NCDC released the temperature and precipitation data for the U.S. Based on preliminary data, it was 14th warmest and 10th driest. They also had a section for supplemental data where they mentioned some of the more impressive June records set with the recent heat wave. Just eyeballing through the numbers, I spotted what looks to be two locations setting the South Carolina all-time state record. Johnston 4 SW and Columbia Univ. of SC both recorded daily highs of 113 in late June.

Hoping to see your synopsis of the numbers soon!
Quoting cat6band:
Question Levi......How is it that these storms continue to develop in the same area? Aren't the storms cooling the waters? Sorry if it's a dumb question just seems that the cooler water wouldn't allow for development.....Thanks!


cooling the water yes but they are moving fast enough to where it isnt that much of an effect until you get 2-3 storms or debby jr in which case the water will become 39 degrees
Current Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the East Pacific is as follows (I just updated it)...

1.) Daniel = 9.21 units
2.) Bud = 7.15 units
3.) Carlotta = 3.51 units
4.) Emilia = 2.29 units
5.) Aletta = 1.18 units

Total: 23.3 units
Depth of the 26C Isotherm is the Major reason.

Its Wide and deep.





Quoting bohonkweatherman:
You want heat my current heat index is 116 with mostly clear skies, forecast high for today was 88 and I am at 101 currently, I did drive thru some decent storms today about 50 miles from my house but they were not moving


could spell trouble later today for ya
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't know how to post imagines..
If you're using google chrome all you have to do is right click on an image, open in new tab, and copy and paste that url here on the image tab.
Quoting ClimateChange:
Dr. Masters,

NCDC released the temperature and precipitation data for the U.S. Based on preliminary data, it was 14th warmest and 10th driest. They also had a section for supplemental data where they mentioned some of the more impressive June records set with the recent heat wave. Just eyeballing through the numbers, I spotted what looks to be two locations setting the South Carolina all-time state record. Johnston 4 SW and Columbia Univ. of SC both recorded daily highs of 113 in late June.

Hoping to see your synopsis of the numbers soon!


I'll be back this afternoon with a full wrap-up on the remarkable heat wave of 2012.

Jeff Masters
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the East Pacific is as follows (I just updated it)...

1.) Daniel = 9.21 units
2.) Bud = 7.15 units
3.) Carlotta = 3.51 units
4.) Emilia = 2.29 units
5.) Aletta = 1.18 units

Total: 23.3 units


what about the atlantic
Quoting Patrap:
Depth of the 26C Isotherm is the Major reason.

Its Wide and deep.







only about 150 feet in most places, fairly easy to upwell
Quoting weatherh98:


what about the atlantic

1.) Chris = 2.72 units
2.) Debby = 2.45 units
3.) Alberto = 1.38 units
4.) Beryl = 0.865 units

Total: 7.41 units
Quoting RitaEvac:


could spell trouble later today for ya
I will have to see it for me to believe it, 8 weeks no rain and either 99 or over 100 every stinking day Since the Middle of May, the cracks in the ground around here are several inches wide, I put water on my neighbors yard yesterday and several rabbits came out of the cracks in the ground, that is how bad it is here in South Central Texas, only difference between this year and last year to me is our Lakes are Lower and our heat indexes are much higher this year.
and i think there is other disturbance be hid that
My gosh look at this storm over Lake Apopka! Expect flood warnings shortly as totals now nearing 4" to 5".

Quoting Patrap:
Depth of the 26C Isotherm is the Major reason.

Its Wide and deep.







could you post that of the gulf?
Derived from the 9July6pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneDaniel:
15.1n123.1w - 15.1n124.4w - 15.2n125.7w - 15.3n127.0w - 15.3n128.4w has been re-evaluated&altered
15.0n123.1w - 15.1n124.4w - 15.2n125.7w - 15.3n127.0w - 15.3n128.4w - 15.4n129.9w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from 15.5mph(25km/h) West to 16.7mph(26.8km/h) West
MaxSusWinds had decreased from 75knots(86mph)139km/h to 70knots(81)130km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 984millibars to 988millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Daniel's path...
HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

Easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where TS.Daniel became H.Daniel
Easternmost dot on the longest line is H.Daniel's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through H.Daniel's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to Hawaii.
9July12amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 245miles(394kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Bottom half-dot of the blob on the straightline)
9July6amGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 233miles(375kilometres) South of Hawaii
(Top half-dot of the blob on the straightline)
9July12pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 365miles(588kilometres) South of Hawaii
9July6pmGMT: H.Daniel had been headed toward passing 236miles(380kilometres) South of Hawaii
in ~4days4hours from now

Copy&paste 9n161w, hi25, 15.358n155.441w, 15.527n155.471w, 13.641n155.005w, san, 14.4n116.5w-14.5n117.5w, 14.5n117.5w-14.6n118.6w, 14.6n118.6w-14.7n119.6w, 14.7n119.6w-14.8n120.7w, 14.8n120.7w-14.9n121.7w, 14.9n121.7w-15.0n123.1w, 15.0n123.1w-15.1n124.4w, 15.1n124.4w-15.2n125.7w, 15.2n125.7w-15.3n127.0w, 15.3n127.0w-15.3n128.4w, 15.3n128.4w-15.4n129.9w, 15.3n128.4w-15.484n155.476w, 18.911n155.681w-15.484n155.476w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My gosh look at this storm over Lake Apopka! Expect flood warnings shortly as totals now nearing 4" to 5".

..amazing storms today huh
Quoting RitaEvac:


could spell trouble later today for ya
This area needs 6 to 10 inches of rain over a wide area
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My gosh look at this storm over Lake Apopka! Expect flood warnings shortly as totals now nearing 4" to 5".



Looks like a little hail core too
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) Chris = 2.72 units
2.) Debby = 2.45 units
3.) Alberto = 1.38 units
4.) Beryl = 0.865 units

Total: 7.41 units


thats a bit sad....
Quoting LargoFl:
..amazing storms today huh


It just keeps coming down in buckets. It also looks as if these storms are wanting to build into the orlando city limits. Hopefully it gets down to OIA as they have hardly had any rain so far this month but 30 miles NW by me I have already had over 7" now for the month.

611. Gorty
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Looking like a lot of east coast rain and not much for the west in the next 2 weeks... The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are very similar...





Looks like no rain for me according to that. I am not in abnormally dry yet but looking outside and at my stream, I am probably going to be in it eventually. My stream is getting pretty low. If I get no rain through mid August, I will probably be in a moderate drought or maybe even before then.
Quoting weatherh98:


could you post that of the gulf?


Bookmark it..

I dont do requests.

Or Google TCHP and well, bookmark it.
ACE so far in EPAC:

01E (Aletta)

Operational

1.1775 units


02E (Bud)

Operational

4.6600 units


03E (Carlotta)

Operational

3.5100 units


04E (Daniel)

Operational

9.2050 units


05E (Emilia)

Operational

2.2925 units


Eastern Pacific Total

20.845 units
Norfolk, VA also had a low of 83 on Sunday. This was the second warmest daily low on record. The low on July 19, 1942 was 84. No other days have had lows over 82 in Norfolk.
Taken July 7th near I-45 & Monroe


Water spout, taken July 6th over Matagorday bay


Quoting Patrap:


Bookmark it..

I dont do requests.

Or Google TCHP and well, bookmark it.
I have to google it, i cant click on links on here
Quoting RitaEvac:
Taken July 7th near I-45 & Monroe


Water spout, taken July 6th over Matagorday bay


nice waterspout pic there
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
ACE so far in EPAC:

01E (Aletta)

Operational

1.1775



02E (Bud)

Operational

4.6600



03E (Carlotta)

Operational

3.5100



04E (Daniel)

Operational

9.2050



05E (Emilia)

Operational

2.2925



Eastern Pacific Total


20.845

Hey Tropics. Emilia will had quite a bit of ACE to the Eastern Pacific's Total ACE.
Quoting cat6band:
Question Levi......How is it that these storms continue to develop in the same area? Aren't the storms cooling the waters? Sorry if it's a dumb question just seems that the cooler water wouldn't allow for development.....Thanks!


Like Patrap said, there is a lot of deep ocean heat content in the tropical eastern Pacific, which can support many storms in succession without appreciable cold upwelling. For the same reason, upwelling is almost never an issue for storms in our Caribbean unless the storm is near a coastline.
622. txjac
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
This area needs 6 to 10 inches of rain over a wide area


Looks like you'll be getting some rain soon ..coming your way from the NW. Dont think you'll get all that you want but some relief is coming.

Enjoy it as it feels so good
Washington DC had an overnight low of 85 on the night of July 7-8. However the temperature fell to 81 by midnight on the 8th so that was the daily low.

The record for the warmest daily low in Washington DC is 84.

The Capital Gang is still researching but it seems that the night of July 7-8 was the hottest night in DC records.
Quoting nigel20:

Hey Tropics. Emilia will had quite a bit of ACE to the Eastern Pacific's Total ACE.


She for sure will surpass 10 units.
Quoting Civicane49:

Nice visible image of Hurricane Emilia.
Quoting nigel20:

Nice visible image of Hurricane Emilia.

Agreed.
We want rain... My cistern is crying...

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


She for sure will surpass 10 units.

Agreed.
Notice how the eastern Pacific lit up as soon as big-time ridging moved over to the north. The tropical oceans with the anomalously warmest waters south of ridges are the most dangerous, always.
What lightning can do to a tree when it strikes




Bark blown off


Gro, how many EPAC entities are we up to, four and a half now?
Quoting RitaEvac:
What lightning can do to a tree when it strikes




Bark blown off



Maybe it'll die soon after.
Lets not swear in front of the children but still act rude to them?..
Quoting Levi32:
Notice how the eastern Pacific lit up as soon as big-time ridging moved over to the north. The tropical oceans with the anomalously warmest waters south of ridges are the most dangerous, always.


When do you think we'll see some more activity in the Atlantic then?
Quoting LargoFl:


Thanks for that link.... it has some other animations to post...

Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:


When do you think we'll see some more activity in the Atlantic then?


Likely not until early August the way things are looking.

Back to work. Later all.
Quoting Levi32:


Likely not until early August the way things are looking.

Back to work. Later all.


peace out
Pre-CV season update....

The upward trend continues.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:58:00 N Lon : 110:54:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

************************************************* ***
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upward trend continues.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:58:00 N Lon : 110:54:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

************************************************* ***



btw, My computers both crashed last night, they also showed green!
Quoting Levi32:


Likely not until early August the way things are looking.

Back to work. Later all.

Enjoy the rest of your day!
Quoting weatherh98:



btw, My computers both crashed last night, they also showed green!

That's why you shouldn't be on sites you're not supposed to be.
i think there is other disturbance be hid the one the NHC is now talking about in the E PAC
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's why you shouldn't be on sites you're not supposed to be.


:O this is my dads computer... think he needs to go to church, only sites i go on is this and related site
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The upward trend continues.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:58:00 N Lon : 110:54:20 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 956.4mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +10.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 62km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees

************************************************* ***

What's your intensity estimate...maybe 110-115mph?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i think there is other disturbance be hid the one the NHC is now talking about in the E PAC


they prolly will pull out the yellow crayon
epac.aint.worth.the.price.of.bandwith
Quoting islander101010:
epac.aint.worth.the.price.of.bandwith
?.
...SMALL HURRICANE DANIEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING...
2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 15.4°N 130.7°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph


...EMILIA APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.1°N 111.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

AFTER A VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER TODAY...EMILIA
HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT AT A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE. USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
DVORAK VALUES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...PUTTING
EMILIA ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH AN ESTIMATED EYE DIAMETER OF 20 N MI. THE SHIPS-RI
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ABOVE THE EXPLICIT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS...OWING TO THE RI PROBABILITIES...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL MODEL THEREAFTER. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE INTENSITY WILL
LEVEL OFF AND PROBABLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR INTENSE
HURRICANES.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT TODAY BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE
SHORTER-TERM MOTION FLUCTUATIONS LEADS TO A MOTION ESTIMATE OF
295/11. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING BEHIND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE
OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE
MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TURN
INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LATEST GFS TRACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 092032
TCDEP4

HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012

DANIEL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND EXHIBITING WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK FIXES HAVE
DROPPED TO 3.5/4.0. LIKEWISE...THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY
IS SET TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL
AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
VERY LOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
LOSE THE VORTEX COMPLETELY BY DAY FIVE AND DISSIPATION IS INDICATED
AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL SCHEME AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

AN 1806Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ASSISTED WITH THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS
FOR DANIEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 15.4N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 139.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 15.5N 147.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 154.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
.
BBL
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I will have to see it for me to believe it, 8 weeks no rain and either 99 or over 100 every stinking day Since the Middle of May, the cracks in the ground around here are several inches wide, I put water on my neighbors yard yesterday and several rabbits came out of the cracks in the ground, that is how bad it is here in South Central Texas, only difference between this year and last year to me is our Lakes are Lower and our heat indexes are much higher this year.


One day, One day soon, you and rain will cross paths, it's a given.
...EMILIA APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.1%uFFFDN 111.1%uFFFDW
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph


They are still forecasting a peak of 130mph.



Conditions being set for this storm...

Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Is Unfolding Now
CNBCBy Ansuya Harjani | CNBC 9 hours ago

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China....

Link

The Real Fiscal Cliff

Link
Quoting wxchaser97:
...EMILIA APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

2:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 9
Location: 13.1°N 111.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph



They are still forecasting a peak of 135mph.




that would be 130mph not 135
Enjoy the rest of the day everyone.
BBL
Quoting Tazmanian:




that would be 130mph not 135
Why do the two differ then, nothing wrong /mad I just notice they are different.:INIT 09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

and: see above for intensity of 135mph
Quoting sunlinepr:



Conditions being set for this storm...

Roubini: My 'Perfect Storm' Is Unfolding Now
CNBCBy Ansuya Harjani | CNBC 9 hours ago

"Dr. Doom" Nouriel Roubini, says the "perfect storm" scenario he forecast for the global economy earlier this year is unfolding right now as growth slows in the U.S., Europe as well as China....

Link

The Real Fiscal Cliff

Link


That guy has been predicting total economic collapse for years now, just fear mongering for hits.
Wow you fl guys...i got 7 inches in 4 hrs over a week ago in south tx...remember we need it more than you guys!

Is this nothing?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 954.2mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.1

09/1800 UTC 12.8N 110.5W T5.0/5.0 EMILIA -- East Pacific
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That guy has been predicting total economic collapse for years now, just fear mongering for hits.


Hope so... our debt keeps rising and the Chinese keep on buying... Even now Argentina has turned into making deals with them...
Quoting wxchaser97:
Why do the two differ then, nothing wrong /mad I just notice they are different.:INIT 09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

and: see above for intensity of 135mph




i do not see 135 on there i see 125 and 130 olny
Looks like that same old weak wave from a few days ago has made it to the Florida Straights and entering the Gulf of Mexico.


Not much to it though, but at least it should be a rainmaker for somebody over the next few days*.





* We got an 1.5 inches rain yesterday and you could scarcely tell it to look around, because the ground soaked it all up that fast.

Wouldn't hurt to get some more.
Quoting hurricaneeye:

Is this nothing?




that what i was trying too point out but my post was kept being ignore


yes that could be come some in down the rd and it looks good
I don't want to start a arrgument but I am seeing 2 differnt things on the NHC for Emilia.
It does not want to post the image now.
Quoting Tazmanian:




i do not see 135 on there i see 125 and 130 olny
INIT 09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
I do see what you are saying though.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting islander101010:
epac.aint.worth.the.price.of.bandwith
best basin for storm trackin very few if any ever get hurt or die unless landfall occurs
115 knots is 130 mph
120 knots is 140 mph.

The forecast intensity may fall between 135 mph within the next 12-24 hours
.
Saw this on NBC news tonight..talk about being vulnerable..