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Extreme events of 2011: climate change a major factor in some, but not all

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

The science of quantifying how climate change changes the odds of extreme weather events like droughts and floods took a major step forward Tuesday with the publication of NOAA's annual summary of the past year's weather. The 2011 State of the Climate report contains a separate peer-reviewed article published in the July issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society titled, Explaining Extreme Events of 2011 From a Climate Perspective. In the paper, a group of scientists led by Peter Stott of the Met Office Centre in the United Kingdom looked at how climate change may have changed the odds of occurrence of some of 2011's notable weather extremes. These kinds of attribution studies require huge amounts of computer time and take many months to do, but the scientists plan to start making this a regular part of the annual NOAA State of the Climate report. Some of their findings for 2011:

- Determining the causes of extreme events remains difficult. While scientists cannot trace specific events to climate change with absolute certainty, new and continued research help scientists understand how the probability of extreme events change in response to global warming.

- La Niña-related heat waves, like that experienced in Texas in 2011, are now 20 times more likely to occur during La Niña years today than La Niña years fifty years ago.

- The UK experienced a very warm November 2011 and a very cold December 2010. In analyzing these two very different events, UK scientists uncovered interesting changes in the odds. Cold Decembers are now half as likely to occur now versus fifty years ago, whereas warm Novembers are now 62 times more likely.

- The devastating 2011 floods in Thailand caused an estimated $45 billion in damage, making it the world's most expensive river flooding disaster in history. The study found, however, that the amount of rain that fell in the catchment area was not very unusual, and that other factors such as human-caused changes to the flood plain and the movement of more people into flood-prone areas were more important in causing the disaster. "Climate change cannot be shown to have played any role in this event," the study concluded, but warned that climate models predict an increase in the probability of extreme precipitation events in the future in the region.

- The deadly drought in East Africa, which killed tens of thousands of people in 2011, was made more likely by warming waters in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific. While the scientists did not specifically tie the warming of these waters to human-caused global warming, they noted that climate models predict continued warming of these waters in the coming decades, and this will likely "contribute to more frequent East African droughts during the spring and summer."


Figure 1. An SH-60F Sea Hawk helicopter assigned to Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14, flies around the Bangkok area with members of the humanitarian assessment survey team and the Royal Thai Armed Forces to assess the damage caused by the 2011 floods. Image credit: Petty Officer 1st Class Jennifer Villalovos.

Weather on steroids
One interesting aspect of the paper was the scientists' use of the baseball player-steroids analogy to help explain how climate change can increase the odds of extreme weather: "One analogy of the effects of climate change on extreme weather is with a baseball player (or to choose another sport, a cricketer) who starts taking steroids and afterwards hits on average 20% more home runs (or sixes) in a season than he did before (Meehl 2012). For any one of his home runs (sixes) during the years the player was taking steroids, you would not know for sure whether it was caused by steroids or not. But you might be able to attribute his increased number to the steroids. And given that steroids have resulted in a 20% increased chance that any particular swing of the player’s bat results in a home run (or a six), you would be able to make an attribution statement that, all other things being equal, steroid use had increased the probability of that particular occurrence by 20%. The job of the attribution assessment is to distinguish the effects of anthropogenic climate change or some other external factor (steroids in the sporting analogy) from natural variability (e.g., in the baseball analogy, the player’s natural ability to hit home runs or the configuration of a particular stadium)."



Video 1. National Center for Atmospheric Research scientist Dr. Jerry Meehl explains how climate change's impact on extreme weather is like how steroids affect a baseball player.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
My dog looks a lot like a Big White Wolf.

But with a better palate.
1002. Grothar
Quoting scooster67:


God (Creation) nor evolution can be proved. Each requires faith.

Keep, Grothar, much respect for both of you, but neither side will be changing the mind of the other tonight and the regular folks who want to turn things into a fight are swarming like sharks.

piece to both of y'all.


Come on scooster, We go too far back. I hope your not mad.
Invent 98E is building up to be a strong storm.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Still a bit sheared.


Yes,low center is to the east side of mass of convection.
Deleted
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


seeing e. coli in the lab evolve the ability to metabolize citrate is certainly cool, considering that the inability of the bacteria to grow in citrate is a defining characteristic of it.

but yeah, you're right, it's all a crock.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Should you wish to push it to it limits, we are here in theory only.


I accept evolution as fact, to me it's the only explanation.
one day the truth will be known
then everything else will not even matter
Deleted
Quoting TomTaylor:
Hi all, just stopping bye. I see the Atlantic is still dead. No surprise when the MDR/CATL is completely shut down from the large scale subsidence occurring over the region. This has arisen partially from the downward phase of the MJO and partially from the strong ridging over the Atlantic. A strong Azores/Bermuda ridge increases the pressure gradient across the Atlantic between the ridge and the Columbian heat low. Stronger winds create surface divergence/make surface convergence hard to achieve. This makes it hard for waves to develop and promotes sinking air over the region.

This sinking air has has dried and warmed the mid levels of the atmosphere, reducing instability. The reduced instability limits convective activity of waves exiting Africa and activity within the ITCZ/monsoon trough. Limited convective activity has also allowed ULLs to dominate the Atlantic. Right now we have ULLs over the Gulf of Mexico, east of Florida, NE of Puerto Rico, and over the central Atlantic. Finally, the pattern over North America isn't favorable for trough splits or any mechanisms to lift the monsoon trough north.

200hPa velocity potential showing the upper convergence resulting in subsidence, which dries and warms the atmosphere reducing instability.




Right now the MJO is not very amplified but is currently hanging out over the Indian Ocean. Models diverge greatly on where the MJO will go but for the most part it looks like it will hang out around the Indian Ocean in a weakly amplified state for at least the next week, despite what the GFS has been forecasting for the last week (strong return of the MJO into our basin). For now we can watch the East Pacific, which should get another storm within the next day.




Remember what occurred with debby, every single model says she was going to texas and the GFS going to florida, and the GFS was right.

If the GFS says the MJO goes to africa and west.hem, i believe in GFS. the GFS is the first option the best of the season
1012. Grothar
Quoting KoritheMan:


Stronger probably.


I disagree. :) I don't think she will get over a Cat 3 as she is now.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I respect you more than most here, but all of this is just plain wrong. Morality doesn't come from god, it comes from common sense. I don't refrain from killing because a book or deific force tells me to. I don't kill because I don't want to kill. Contemplating that thought makes me feel bad, because I believe life is precious. I am accountable to myself. It has nothing to do with god or evolution.

And no, our country is "morally bankrupt" (I don't think it is) because people are stupid.




Well spoken!

I don't like to debate religion, as it offends most and I don't want that. In religion, I believe there is no right or wrong, only "the way". We get caught up in being right or wrong, and forget to be tolerant.

Evolution is not a fact, it is a theory. My defense will be vastly scientific in nature also, I'm out for now, be back later when topic has changed. This is my faith, this is what I believe; I believe this in good faith. I'm not trying to spread lies, I believe this with all my heart and soul. I love you naysayers too because I generally agree with the vast majority of opinions shared on WU. Kori, ya few subjects I'm guessing we would disagree on, this is certainly one of them. And we probably, it would be safe to say, would disagree very strongly; and that's okay.
Quoting ncstorm:


Wow..the kettle calling the pot black..


I have never played the persecution card during this discussion. Show me where I have and you'll have a case.

/discussion

I'm not going to get into any religion, evolution, and global warming talks since I'm out of it.
Class...........Class.............Claaaaassssssssss ssssss...................Claaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaasss ssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss................ ..............................................Shuu uuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuutttttttttttttttttttttuuuuuuu uuuuuupppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppp ppppp!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sincerely
Sister Mary Elephant

Quoting Tribucanes:
Evolution is not a fact, it is a theory. My defense will be vastly scientific in nature also, I'm out for now, be back later when topic has changed. This is my faith, this is what I believe; I believe this in good faith. I'm not trying to spread lies, I believe this with all my heart and soul. I love you naysayers too because I generally agree with the vast majority of opinions shared on WU. Kori, ya few subjects I'm guessing we would disagree on, this is certainly one of them. And we probably, it would be safe to say, would disagree very strongly; and that's okay.
Nothing wrong with adamant disagreement, as long as it well-founded and not ignorant (not saying anything about you btw -- I'm genuinely interested in reading your blog before I make any assumptions or judgments).

However, you might want to realize that the word "theory" carries a different connotation in a scientific context. In that realm it literally means "fact".
Y'all mean to tell me 95 percent of our DNA is the same as chimpanzee's?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Evolution is not a fact, it is a theory. My defense will be vastly scientific in nature also, I'm out for now, be back later when topic has changed. This is my faith, this is what I believe; I believe this in good faith. I'm not trying to spread lies, I believe this with all my heart and soul. I love you naysayers too because I generally agree with the vast majority of opinions shared on WU. Kori, ya few subjects I'm guessing we would disagree on, this is certainly one of them. And we probably, it would be safe to say, would disagree very strongly; and that's okay.


In science the word "theory" is used as the best telling of the tale based on available facts. It's the story that pulls everything together.

The theory of evolution, the theory of gravity - those things mean something vastly different than how non-scientists use the word. Non-scientists use "theory" in more of a "that's an idea"/"hypothesis" manner.

The theory of evolution is based on an enormous number of facts. And that's a fact.
1021. Patrap
The Annunaki created a good stock and they should be impressed soon.


Fresca?



1022. ncstorm
Quoting KoritheMan:


I have never played the persecution card during this discussion. Show me where I have and you'll have a case.

/discussion


Im letting the discussion go KoritheMan for the sake of the blog and its not because I dont have an answer.. its because its not the place nor time in this blog..just something that we persecuted christians do..
Bob Wallace, your wrong. Wrong I tell you, flat out.
1026. Patrap
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice

EP052012 - Major Hurricane EMILIA


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Quoting ncstorm:


Im letting it the discussion go KoritheMan for the sake of the blog and its not because I dont have an answer.. its because its not the place nor time in this blog..just something that we persecuted christians do..
Do what you need to do, man.

Peace.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Y'all mean to tell me 95 percent of our DNA is the same as chimpanzee's?


its also in a tree as well

everything is connected the entire circle of life

we come as many
but yet only one

Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice
And the start of more AGW debates.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice


Better get my Christmas shopping done soon!
Quoting Grothar:


Come on scooster, We go too far back. I hope your not mad.
No worries Gro, now where's that picture of the First Wife?....:)....

Quoting photonchaser:


Better get my Christmas shopping done soon!
It IS Christmas in July. RIGHT?!
1033. ncstorm
So my comments were removed and the other comments stand? I appreciate the minuses guys..
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice
i hope i get some snow this winter but iam not counting on it
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Y'all mean to tell me 95 percent of our DNA is the same as chimpanzee's?


Heck, 90 percent of our DNA is the same as a tomato.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Nothing wrong with adamant disagreement, as long as it well-founded and not ignorant (not saying anything about you btw -- I'm genuinely interested in reading your blog before I make any assumptions or judgments).

However, you might want to realize that the word "theory" carries a different connotation in a scientific context. In that realm it literally means "fact".


Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Y'all mean to tell me 95 percent of our DNA is the same as chimpanzee's?



Actually, 98.5%. We share 97.5% with mice, and 70% with slugs. Kind of humbling.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice


Counting the days for lower temps....

Counting the days for the surf season....

Quoting sunlinepr:


That TUTT is not weakening for now.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That TUTT is not weakening for now.


Powerfull one... At least will move some rains over PR...
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 24 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -64.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 80km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

I'm still waiting for proof that god actually exists. We're supposed to believe he does because someone wrote a book about it? Where's the scientific evidence behind that?
There was no Renumber. No tropical depression at 8 pm PDT.

Guess it needs to organize/persist some more.
1044. ncstorm
(dont comment..dont take the bait)

I gotta go before I get banned..have a good night everyone..
Quoting ncstorm:
(dont comment..dont take the bait)

I gotta go before I get banned..have a good night everyone..


You too. And despite all of our banter, I really mean that. No need for animosity or bad blood.
Deleted
Quoting sunlinepr:


Powerfull one... At least will move some rains over PR...


Yes, that is true.But the waves wont be very high with the TUTT around.
pr,look what the NWS says in the latest update tonight.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1019 PM AST WED JUL 11 2012

.UPDATE...PREVAILING EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW HAS BEGUN TO ADVECT
SHALLOW PATCHES OF MOISTURE INLAND ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE ISLAND OF SAINT CROIX. SO FAR THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
QUICK PASSING AND EXPECT THE BRIEF INTERVALS OF PASSING SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERALL INHERITED FORECAST
PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW AND IN AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
REASONING. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
GRIDS AS WINDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON MODEL INITIALIZATION AND LATEST
GFS GUIDANCE WHICH SO FAR HAD GOOD HANDLE ON LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN.
DECIDED TO KEEP THE HAZE OUT OF THE OVERALL PACKAGE FOR NOW AS EXPECT
LESSER AMOUNTS OF SAHARAN DUST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AT LEAST UNTIL
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION...NOW JUST OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST... IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting Grothar:


I disagree. :) I don't think she will get over a Cat 3 as she is now.



there seems to be some problems
having a hard time
getting itself together
and form a strong spin

maybe the last two
took out the spin
Quoting KoritheMan:

It IS Christmas in July. RIGHT?!


My family (cousins, aunts, uncles, grandparents) have a Christmas in July every year. We do a coin grab and a Secret Santa. Say hi, share stories and meet up with each other basically. It's often the only time I get to see my cousins.
1052. Grothar
Quoting scooster67:
No worries Gro, now where's that picture of the First Wife?....:)....


Trust me, you'll sleep better not seeing it. :)
1053. beell
Quoting Progster:


Heck, 90 percent of our DNA is the same as a tomato.


And that remaining 20% is what sets us apart.
The sun is setting over major hurricane Emilia, making for a fairly spectacular presentation. Read more at http://weather.schematical.com/

Deleted


NAEFS Temperature anomalies July 19-26th. You can see the effects of monsoonal moisture on temperatures over Texas and the desert SW, but over the Gulf, East coast and Ohio Valley...the heat goes on. (ok, you can make a musical joke now, Patrap :))
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I hope that is not the case, ncstorm. Unless a post contains profanity or a direct attack on a person, then I think they should be allowed to stand. But, that is just me. I do not "minus" any post unless it is a spammer, or my mouse misbehaves and I miss the "plus". I even let the trolls have their fun.


Agreed, unless I think someone is intentionally trying to hurt someone else, I don't hit the dislike. Ncstorm I respect your opinion, truly I do.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice

EP052012 - Major Hurricane EMILIA


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




Can't wait to wake up on December 22, 2012 rather than supposedly dying the day before.
1061. Patrap
The Six Epochs from The Singularity is Near

Enjoy with a Ice Cold FRESCA.

Singularity is real. By virtue of second law of thermodynamics it is inevitable. In the absence of Truth it creates fear. In thermodynamics it emerged as heat death of the universe. In General Relativity it emerged as the point to which all the matter collapses in time to take new birth [Big bang]. In modern world it is the black hole into which all the information collapses. From the point of biology and evolutionist it becomes the point where machines grow to beat the potentiality of Human mind and makes him slave. All this potentially fearful evolution emerges, from our basic vision and assumption that universe is material. These fears vanish and hope emerges the moment you switch your fundamental assumption that universe is material and think it as living conscious and intelligent being. Then all the conceptual thinking of singularity becomes valid as Living Science, centered on one Super Soul and Mind that Creates and controls everything. Our present Evolution of the universe becomes a journey of the Creator in time to awaken human consciousness and intelligence to meet the Mind of God or the Creator, such that we humans beat death and gain life. We are approaching the gate of singularity and Truth is the Key to open the door to Golden Age or Kingdom of God. We are in the edge of death and destruction, the more we delay comprehending the Truth greater will be the destruction. Universe needs to be understood as Consciousness and intelligence [Information] unfolding and enfolding eternally sustaining the universe in time.
Here some interesting articles from a nonbeliever who doesn't necessarily believe in Darwism either.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reed/reed155.html

http://lewrockwell.com/reed/reed208.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reed/reed80.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reed/reed59.html

http://www.lewrockwell.com/reed/reed27.html

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/b enefit-of-the-doubt/
Quoting beell:


And that remaining 20% is what sets us apart.
you mean 10% right?
Quoting beell:


And that remaining 20% is what sets us apart.


LOL


That's all, folks.
HURRICANE EMILIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
0300 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 119.1W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EMILIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

...EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 119.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES
HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Seems you were right, Gro. She's still chugging along at 100 kt.
1071. Patrap
I guess the 8pm is covered I dare say.

: )
EMILIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

8:00 PM PDT Wed Jul 11
Location: 15.0°N 119.1°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 120239
TCDEP5

HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI
EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE
EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND
INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH
OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Quoting sunlinepr:


Counting the days for lower temps....

Counting the days for the surf season....




I've had many fun sessions at Surfer's Beach, Wilderness, and Jobo's! Hope to get back down there this year in January or February. Tough living on the Gulf Coast of Florida and loving to surf.
Daniel is dead
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's all, folks.
Notice how the Roman Empire collasped? We are heading off the cliff once again. It's not a matter of "if", it's a matter of when.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP042012
500 PM HST WED JUL 11 2012

VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALL
DAY WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ABOVE DANIEL. SINCE
DANIEL IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ITS MOTION IS PRIMARILY GUIDED BY THE
LARGE-SCALE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

DANIEL IS OVER AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER ANOMALOUSLY COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 24C AND 25.5C. FURTHERMORE...VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG ITS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN
THESE CONDITIONS...REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED AND DANIEL
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT OF DANIEL AND ITS REMNANT IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GROUPING OF DYNAMICAL OBJECTIVE AIDS.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DANIEL FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER.
Quoting allancalderini:
Daniel is dead

Just as I expected in this advisory.
I might add that is when the last time we veered off course.
1079. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


there seems to be some problems
having a hard time
getting itself together
and form a strong spin

maybe the last two
took out the spin


I don't speak haiku.

But if I did my response would be:

Her winds are strong and her eye is hallow
but your analysis seems a little shallow.
1080. Patrap
Daniel my brother you are older than me
Do you still feel the pain of the scars that won't heal
Your eyes have died, but you see more than I
Daniel you're a star in the face of the sky



Love Daniel he even surprise us when he reach major hurricane status an amazing system.
Hubble Discovers a Fifth Moon Orbiting Pluto

ScienceDaily (July 11, 2012) %u2014 A team of astronomers using NASA's Hubble Space Telescope is reporting the discovery of another moon orbiting the icy dwarf planet Pluto....

Link



See Post #1062, he puts things in a much better perspective than I can on a blog.
Quoting allancalderini:
Love Daniel he even surprise us when he reach major hurricane status an amazing system.

Yep.
Tropical Depression DANIEL Advisory Number 32
Issued at 500 PM HST WED JUL 11 2012
SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
Location: 15.5N 143.7W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 35 MPH...55 KM/H
Present movement: W or 270 degrees AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
1086. Grothar
Quoting KoritheMan:
Seems you were right, Gro. She's still chugging along at 100 kt.


And what do you think of my earlier analysis that 98E might be a threat to Baja California and possibly the US Southwest? See, everybody reads my jokes, but nobody comments on my astute weather reports. It hurts guys.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


The fringe of tropical moisture streaming into Southern California from the southeast today. Forecast calls for 70% change of Thunderstorms tomorrow and friday. A easterly wave is forecast to traverse northern baja california and should have enough vertical motion to sustain thunderstorms after the loss of daytime heating.Easterly wave seen in lower right corner in satellite view. Let's hope they are correct,I don't think it's rained since April!

Hey Joe, I hope you do get some rain up in the mountains. Down by the coast we probably won't get anything, but maybe we'll get a glimpse of some towering thunderstorms building up in the distance, that's always a neat site.
Hurricane Emilia:

The Catholic Church contributed greatly to science by the way.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/woods/woods40.html
Quoting PcolaSurf182:



I've had many fun sessions at Surfer's Beach, Wilderness, and Jobo's! Hope to get back down there this year in January or February. Tough living on the Gulf Coast of Florida and loving to surf.


I enjoyed two epic swells at Maria's and Domes this past season...

But living in Caguas, I usually exercise at "La Punta" in Condado...

1091. bappit
quoting:
" However, you might want to realize that the word "theory" carries a different connotation in a scientific context. In that realm it literally means "fact". "

Nope. This theory about what theories are is balderdash.
Quoting Grothar:


And what do you think of my earlier analysis that 98E might be a threat to Baja California and possibly the US Southwest? See, everybody reads my jokes, but nobody comments on my astute weather reports. It hurts guys.


I agree with that assessment.
Quoting scooster67:

Can you show proof of anything, evolving from one thing to something completely different?

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.


Quoting BobWallace:


In science the word "theory" is used as the best telling of the tale based on available facts. It's the story that pulls everything together.

The theory of evolution, the theory of gravity - those things mean something vastly different than how non-scientists use the word. Non-scientists use "theory" in more of a "that's an idea"/"hypothesis" manner.

The theory of evolution is based on an enormous number of facts. And that's a fact.


From weather to evolution. A very interesting change in topic. One wonders how it ended up in this forum.

First off, those wishing to mix religion with the science of biological evolution: You would be best served if you kept them separate. Religion is about having faith in the absence of empirical evidence; Science is about arriving to a conclusion through observation, data gathering, and mathematical analysis of that data. There is room for both in the human psyche, but if you use one to supplant the other, you risk corrupting both.

Next: the topic of biological evolution. Summary definition: Genetic change of a population over time. Summary definition of evolution through natural selection: Differential reproductive success.

These processes function through small changes in DNA that manifest in physical traits which provide an advantage to survival under a given set of environmental circumstances. These DNA changes can occur through two methods: Mutation and recombination (sexual reproduction). Most DNA changes through these methods offer physical traits that provide no actual advantage in a specific environment. Some cause disadvantages (consider the various human genetic diseases). A very small portion provide actual advantages in a specific environment.

Over time, these advantages build up in a reproducing population due to a higher reproductive success rate, due primarily to a higher ability to survive to procreation. The advantageous trait is then handed to the next generation which carry the trait to their own offspring, who in turn have a higher survivorship/reproduction rate. When multiple and successive genetic changes occur in these populations, which takes thousands of generations and occur on a timescale multiple of the lifespan of the species, a new species is established.

This process has been described in excruciating mathematical detail by dedicated biologists for over 100 years. Every species that exists on the planet today arrived here by that method. It has and continues to be the physical process by which life as we know it operates. There is no dispute of this whatsoever in the biological sciences, and many learned, modern-day religious leaders understand the need to let science be science, and let faith be faith.

Rant complete.

Now, can we please go back to talking about the weather and climate?
Invest 98E:

1095. timtlu
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm still waiting for proof that god actually exists. We're supposed to believe he does because someone wrote a book about it? Where's the scientific evidence behind that?


There is no "proof" God actually exists. The belief that He does, by definition, is exactly what faith is. There never will be proof as hard as you want to look. I say this as a believing Christian.

Ironically, this is much the similar case to global warming. There is no "proof" that such exists, only overwhelming facts that point to its existence. Much the same as the facts that point to evolution, and equally to the facts that Jesus did indeed exist as His entire story is told. Faith in any or all of the above is all that can exist. And actually the further you delve into any of these three beliefs the more you can see they must ultimately coexist.
1096. nigel20
Good evening everyone!

Derived from the 12July12pmGMT (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneEmilia:
14.7n117.0w - 14.7n117.8w has been re-evaluated&altered
14.6n117.0w - 14.7n117.8w - 14.9n118.6w are now the most recent positions

Its vector had changed from 9mph(14.5km/h) WNWest to 9.2mph(14.8km/h) WNWest
MaxSusWinds had had held steady at 100knots(115mph)185km/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 960millibars to 962millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Emilia's path...
HPV is Hanalei :: OGG is Kahului :: UPP is Hawi :: HI25 is Naalehu :: SAN is SanDiego

The connected line-segments represent (the most recent majority of) H.Emilia's path thus far
Westernmost dot on the connected line-segments is HurricaneEmilia's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection thru H.Emilias's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to TheBigIsland's coastline
11July12amGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 217miles(349kilometres) north of Kauai
11July6amGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing over Pe'ahi,Maui
11July12pmGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 207miles(333kilometres) South of Hawaii
11July6pmGMT: H.Emilia had been headed toward passing 199miles(321kilometres) South of Hawaii
12July12amGMT: H.Emilia was heading toward passing 7miles(12kilometres) North of TheBigIsland
in ~11days2hours

Copy&paste 22.235n159.403w, hpv, 8.8n156.2w, ogg, upp, 18.911n155.681w, hi25, 25.369n159.021w, 20.943n156.279w, 15.905n155.498w, 16.016n155.512w, san, 13.2n111.7w-13.4n112.5w, 13.4n112.5w-13.6n113.3w, 13.6n113.3w-13.8n114.1w, 13.8n114.1w-14.2n115.1w, 14.2n115.1w-14.5n116.2w, 14.5n116.2w-14.6n117.0w, 14.6n117.0w-14.7n117.8w, 14.7n117.8w-14.9n118.6w, 14.7n117.8w-20.375n155.845w, 20.268n155.85w-20.375n155.845w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting WxGeekVA:


1. 99.9999 percent of people are against child pornography, and it is still illegal and completely wrong.

2. There has only been like one instance since Columbine of anything along those lines happening, so that isn't the "norm"

3. Out of control society? I'm pretty sure this isn't anarchy right now. Sure, things have changed and we are more liberal as a nation, but out of control? Hardly.

4. I don't see myself running around dirty, eating bananas, chucking my feces at people, and having no language skills or any other traits that are unique to humans. Nor do I see anyone else on the streets doing those things.

So therefore, your statement is invalid and unreasonable and based on no facts whatsoever. Please try again with something that actually makes sense.

Off topic
1099. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


And what do you think of my earlier analysis that 98E might be a threat to Baja California and possibly the US Southwest? See, everybody reads my jokes, but nobody comments on my astute weather reports. It hurts guys.


While my sense of humor is reasonably well developed, alas, my sense of astute weatherisms is not. And besides, if we plus all your comments, you will think we are merely trying to curry favor. ;-)
1101. nigel20
Deleted
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Yes, that is true.But the waves wont be very high with the TUTT around.


The only way to get some waves is during a Tropical wave / storm / hurricane event in the surroundings of the island...

Usually, when a hurricane passes N of the island, what surfers call the "tail of the hurricane" moves wind from the S creatin "glazed" conditions in the N shores...
Quoting 12george1:

Off topic

A majority of the blog has been off topic for the past few hours. There has been no name calling/insulting and a lot of respected opinions.

That's why makes it ok.
1105. Ossqss
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I make comments on the jokes because I understand how jokes work.

Weather systems are not something that I understand how they work. Hence, the legitimacy of my handle. ;-)

Rest assured that I do follow your weather posts and learn from them. I learn from all that posts here, but I ain't there yet. Admittedly, it is not the fault of the teachers, but of this student. ... Keep trying though. I am slowly getting there. ;-) ..... Sadly, by the time I get it figured it, the climate will have changed and I have to start all over again. .... Sorry, but I had to throw that last bit in there. ;-)


Nice, you are getting the connections?

Sorry, but I had to throw this last bit in there. ;-)

Quoting stormchaser19:


Remember what occurred with debby, every single model says she was going to texas and the GFS going to florida, and the GFS was right.

If the GFS says the MJO goes to africa and west.hem, i believe in GFS. the GFS is the first option the best of the season
The GFS is about the 3rd or 4th best global model (behind the ECMWF and UKMET, and even the CMC in certain departments). Just because it did well in one situation, doesn't mean we should suddenly latch on to the GFS. If we look at the skill of the models predicting the MJO, we can also see that the GFS has done a pretty poor job lately, coming in 4th behind the UKMET, ECMWF and CMC.

Quoting scooster67:

Evolution is the biggest lie ever crammed down our throats, even more so than AGW.
It wouldn't be crammed down your throat if you accepted reality.
1109. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A majority of the blog has been off topic for the past few hours. There has been no name calling/insulting and a lot of respected opinions.

That's why makes it ok.


But not that some of us hadn't at least thought of some. :)
Quoting Tribucanes:
Bob Wallace, your wrong. Wrong I tell you, flat out.
It'd be nice if you used some reasoning to support your argument.
Deleted
Strange Vortex Discovered on Saturn Moon Titan

by SPACE.com Staff Date: 10 July 2012 Time: 06:27 PM ET



This true color image captured by NASA'S Cassini spacecraft before a distant flyby of Saturn's moon Titan on June 27, 2012, shows a south polar vortex swirling in the moon's atmosphere.
CREDIT: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Space Science Institute


A NASA spacecraft has spied a vortex swirling in the atmosphere high above the south pole of the Saturn moon Titan, hinting that winter may be coming to the huge body's southern reaches.

NASA's Cassini probe photographed the polar vortex — or mass of swirling gas — during a flyby of Titan on June 27. The vortex appears to complete one full rotation in nine hours, while it takes Titan about 16 days to spin once around its axis.

"The structure inside the vortex is reminiscent of the open cellular convection that is often seen over Earth's oceans," Tony Del Genio, a Cassini team member at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said in a statement.

Link
I'll get a bucket for you!
Atlantic Tropical update on my blog just released...been doing these daily (if not almost daily) since the season started...

I updated the situation developing over Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Deleted
1119. Grothar
Everybody brush up on your mid-Atlantic maps for next week. From now on, only one hint a day.

Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I'll get a bucket for you!
Well at least you are considerate, thanks for the bucket.
Quoting Grothar:
Everybody brush up on your mid-Atlantic maps for next week. From now on, only one hint a day.

I'd love to Gro, but for now it's just too damn dry

WE need a somthing to track but that want happen untill August!!!!
1123. Ossqss
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I lack a strong knowledge of weather systems. You fail to give me enough credit for as to how the climate works and what can affect the climate. ... Nice try though. BTW, weather does not change the climate. Weather patterns change when the climate changes.


Agreed, weather is not climate.

Cheers!

Gnight....
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 162 days 4 hours and 47minutes until the 2012 Winter Solstice

EP052012 - Major Hurricane EMILIA


Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




I wonder who will get the last comment in before this happens/doesn't happen!
Anytime. But on a serious note you might like to read some of the links I posted at #1062. He write a lot more eloquently than myself.

I'm not naive to believe all of our social problems are directly a result of taking the Bible out of public schools but I think it played a big part.

I'm 48 years old and I can see the decline of societal behavior from my childhood to the present. I think to deny this is not accepting reality as well.

If I could only show you, or wxgeekva, some of the behavior exhibited in the public schools I taught in, then you would see it from my perspective. And there many public schools much worse than the ones I had the privilege of teaching in.
1126. hydrus
Big changes for the S.E...Flooding a real threat, even for areas affected by severe drought ...Now..48 hours84 hours, and moisture flow piling up in the S.E. from the Atlantic and gulf..
1127. hydrus
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC Jul 11 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
Quoting Grothar:
Everybody brush up on your mid-Atlantic maps for next week. From now on, only one hint a day.

Here comes the Train!!
Quoting gulfbreeze:
WE need a somthing to track but that want happen untill August!!!!

Be careful...I'd be cautious in discounting the system over Florida poised to move into the eastern GOM in next 24 hours. That's a system with a surface structure coming together and very favorable upper winds at the moment. Details in paragraph P7 of my new blog post...
1130. nigel20
Emilia

Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Anytime. But on a serious note you might like to read some of the links I posted at #1062. He write a lot more eloquently than myself.

I'm not naive to believe all of our social problems are directly a result of taking the Bible out of public schools but I think it played a big part.

I'm 48 years old and I can see the decline of societal behavior from my childhood to the present. I think to deny this is not accepting reality as well.

If I could only show you, or wxgeekva, some of the behavior exhibited in the public schools I taught in, then you would see it from my perspective. And there many public schools much worse than the ones I had the privilege of teaching in.


I'm a senior in high school right now and I don't see anything bad in school or anything that suggests a problem in the education system. In fact, my dad says that from what homework I bring home school is harder and stricter than it was when he was in school.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Here comes the Train!!
Will any there be any rain on these trains? lol

We need it here in Texas, especially, in the central part of the state
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well at least you are considerate, thanks for the bucket.
Dud you just need a few more years under your BELT!!!!!
1135. Patrap

Manhattanhenge

Manhattanhenge's sunset show wows New Yorkers


Julio Cortez / AP
Photographers aim their cameras as the sun sets through the buildings on 42nd Street in Manhattan during a phenomenon known as Manhattanhenge on July 11, 2012. Manhattanhenge, sometimes known as the Manhattan Solstice, occurs when the setting sun aligns with east-to-west streets of the main street grid.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm a senior in high school right now and I don't see anything bad in school or anything that suggests a problem in the education system. In fact, my dad says that from what homework I bring home school is harder and stricter than it was when he was in school.
Well, there you go, I have recent history on my side. If you think school work is more difficult than it was a hundred years ago (when compulsory school began to take place in the USA) then you are mistaken.

I wish I could find a copy of a test from an 8th grade graduation in a Kansas school from 1890. It was more difficult than some test I had in college.
Quoting wxchaser97:


Now with all the hype and false calls on it this year...
THIS IS ACTUALLY AN ANNULAR HURRICANE
1139. nigel20
Quoting Patrap:

Manhattanhenge

Manhattanhenge's sunset show wows New Yorkers


Julio Cortez / AP
Photographers aim their cameras as the sun sets through the buildings on 42nd Street in Manhattan during a phenomenon known as Manhattanhenge on July 11, 2012. Manhattanhenge, sometimes known as the Manhattan Solstice, occurs when the setting sun aligns with east-to-west streets of the main street grid.

That's very nice, Patrap!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm a senior in high school right now and I don't see anything bad in school or anything that suggests a problem in the education system. In fact, my dad says that from what homework I bring home school is harder and stricter than it was when he was in school.


But, if I may interject, any problems you do observe are directly related to the removal of the Bible from schools, right?

Sarcasm flag: Flag
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Be careful...I'd be cautious in discounting the system over Florida poised to move into the eastern GOM in next 24 hours. That's a system with a surface structure coming together and very favorable upper winds at the moment. Details in paragraph P7 of my new blog post...
Thanks I will keep an eye on that being on the North Central Gulf Coast.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm a senior in high school right now and I don't see anything bad in school or anything that suggests a problem in the education system. In fact, my dad says that from what homework I bring home school is harder and stricter than it was when he was in school.


I agree. You just here a lot about the bad now-a-days and none about the good. I know there was not any problems with my school everyone was friendly and knew that they were there to learn. obviously there are a few people in each class that struggle but coming from a tight-knit community it was those people's home lives that were the issue. Mind you I've been out of high school for three years
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Well, there you go, I have recent history on my side. If you think school work is more difficult than it was a hundred years ago (when compulsory school began to take place in the USA) then you are mistaken.

I wish I could find a copy of a test from an 8th grade graduation in a Kansas school from 1890. It was more difficult than some test I had in college.


I said more difficult... it's a 30 year gap too. And please, I would like to see proof of this 1890s middle school test! It would be the first actual piece of evidence anyone had to contradict me with today!
By the way, wxgeekva, how did you and your family fare during all those storms last week.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Here comes the Train!!

Wait a sec...isn't the train already here? We've seen some pretty good tropical waves roll off Africa already...but the dry SAL has been suppressing them in the Atlantic side. But then...we see them spring back to life in the E-Pac. Daniel...Emilia...and future Fabiio (Invest 98E) is a product of the train....which is already here...
Quoting hydrus:
Big changes for the S.E...Flooding a real threat, even for areas affected by severe drought ...Now..48 hours84 hours, and moisture flow piling up in the S.E. from the Atlantic and gulf..
*groan* I feel like drowning already with all of rain North Carolina had gotten this week...
1148. hydrus
This model shows the moisture surge for the S.E.U.S......Link
1150. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I said more difficult... it's a 30 year gap too. And please, I would like to see proof of this 1890s middle school test! It would be the first actual piece of evidence anyone had to contradict me with today!


I'll try and see if I can find an old one of mine somewhere.

1056. WxGeekVA 2:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2012 +10
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I think I might be catching on now. This evolution thing is starting to make sense to me now. Since we evolved from apes I believe everything is coming around full circle now.

Ever since we took the Bible out of our public school systems and a lot of people began moving toward a more secular society, and we began putting all of our faith in the "state", we have begun to EVOLVE into a lawless society where child pornography, "Colombine type" massacres, out of control society, etc. etc, is now the norm. Yes indeed, ever since we began to shy away from the Church, we have truly begun acting like a bunch of primates.

Yes, I'm starting to believe in this evolution thing after all!


1. 99.9999 percent of people are against child pornography, and it is still illegal and completely wrong.

2. There has only been like one instance since Columbine of anything along those lines happening, so that isn't the "norm"

3. Out of control society? I'm pretty sure this isn't anarchy right now. Sure, things have changed and we are more liberal as a nation, but out of control? Hardly.

4. I don't see myself running around dirty, eating bananas, chucking my feces at people, and having no language skills or any other traits that are unique to humans. Nor do I see anyone else on the streets doing those things.

So therefore, your statement is invalid and unreasonable and based on no facts whatsoever. Please try again with something that actually makes sense.








I just had to jump in here. Why do you feel the need to defend modern society so aggressively? The original comment does have some merritt to it. Modern society is completely split on anything and everything that matters. I'm not a religious man. Yet there seems to at least been some order back in the day when people cared and had common spied systems. Today its everyone for themselves. It truly is. You can do what you want and think what you want. In fact they tell us to be as individualistic as we possibly can. We live in a time when the president of the USA has the power and authority to kill anyone he wants and then brag about it. We live in a time when the single greatest achievement in mankinds technological evolution(the Internet) is used to primarily allow people to be voyeuristic. Every man woman and child is slowly but surely being segregated into their own little corner. The information super highway was a bust. All of our media is intended to distract us. We raise our children now to be superficial and lazy. The western world has become a plague and people become more accepting of it as time goes on. Our society is not ok people. Not even close.
1153. nigel20
1154. hydrus
Quoting Bluestorm5:
*groan* I feel like drowning already with all of rain North Carolina had gotten this week...
We are burnt and dry..We need rain bad, but I have a feeling that it will fall to quickly and cause problems around here..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I said more difficult... it's a 30 year gap too. And please, I would like to see proof of this 1890s middle school test! It would be the first actual piece of evidence anyone had to contradict me with today!
I might try to find one. I don't remember where I saw it, its been a while. I do remember one thing that stood out; of the 20 or so questions (it was a final exam), there wasn't one true or false question, not one multiple choice question and not one yes or no question.

Every question was explain in great detail, etc.
This July has been the most Normal for my area in a long time. July has had T-storms and good rain fall All I have to do is watch how fast my grass grows!!Temp have been right on the norm.We will take it just hope we don't get a Major H in Aug. or Sept.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
Thanks I will keep an eye on that being on the North Central Gulf Coast.

Glad you are convinced...no 100% guarentee that it will develop...but it shouldn't be turned a blind eye. Subtle systems like these can spin up rapidly in a favorable upper wind config like we have tonight...such as Claudette in 2009...then folks are left thinking "this came from nowhere"....
1158. scott39
Dont expect too many long track Cape Verde TCs this season. Most will be "home brewed" and short on time to prepare. Keep your eye on the Eastern GOM...could be something there soon.
Grother, that was too funny.
Quoting bluesydeacon:

1056. WxGeekVA 2:33 AM GMT on July 12, 2012 +10
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I think I might be catching on now. This evolution thing is starting to make sense to me now. Since we evolved from apes I believe everything is coming around full circle now.

Ever since we took the Bible out of our public school systems and a lot of people began moving toward a more secular society, and we began putting all of our faith in the "state", we have begun to EVOLVE into a lawless society where child pornography, "Colombine type" massacres, out of control society, etc. etc, is now the norm. Yes indeed, ever since we began to shy away from the Church, we have truly begun acting like a bunch of primates.

Yes, I'm starting to believe in this evolution thing after all!


1. 99.9999 percent of people are against child pornography, and it is still illegal and completely wrong.

2. There has only been like one instance since Columbine of anything along those lines happening, so that isn't the "norm"

3. Out of control society? I'm pretty sure this isn't anarchy right now. Sure, things have changed and we are more liberal as a nation, but out of control? Hardly.

4. I don't see myself running around dirty, eating bananas, chucking my feces at people, and having no language skills or any other traits that are unique to humans. Nor do I see anyone else on the streets doing those things.

So therefore, your statement is invalid and unreasonable and based on no facts whatsoever. Please try again with something that actually makes sense.








I just had to jump in here. Why do you feel the need to defend modern society so aggressively? The original comment does have some merritt to it. Modern society is completely split on anything and everything that matters. I'm not a religious man. Yet there seems to at least been some order back in the day when people cared and had common spied systems. Today its everyone for themselves. It truly is. You can do what you want and think what you want. In fact they tell us to be as individualistic as we possibly can. We live in a time when the president of the USA has the power and authority to kill anyone he wants and then brag about it. We live in a time when the single greatest achievement in mankinds technological evolution(the Internet) is used to primarily allow people to be voyeuristic. Every man woman and child is slowly but surely being segregated into their own little corner. The information super highway was a bust. All of our media is intended to distract us. We raise our children now to be superficial and lazy. The western world has become a plague and people become more accepting of it as time goes on. Our society is not ok people. Not even close.


Yes, modern society has problems. But as a whole, the world was a lot worse off even as recently as 100 years ago. I agree, the media is a distraction, I rarely watch TV anymore. Yes, people are selfish. But that's just human nature, it's just being expressed in a different way now. And honestly, segregation ended mainly 50 years ago, and now everyone is treated much more equally now than they were then. Yes, there is still discrimination, but mostly by those same intolerant people (Westboro Baptist Church, anyone?)I just say that society still has issues but it is better than it was.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I might try to find one. I don't remember where I saw it, its been a while. I do remember one thing that stood out; of the 20 or so questions (it was a final exam), there wasn't one true or false question, not one multiple choice question and not one yes or no question.

Every question was explain in great detail, etc.


None of my Physics, Math, English, Biology, or Chemistry exams were like that.... actually there was only one exam that i ever had like that which was art. But I mean it's only art. :)
Anyway, I'm off for the night! I gotta rest, I have a date tomorrow with my girlfriend -___-
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm a senior in high school right now and I don't see anything bad in school or anything that suggests a problem in the education system. In fact, my dad says that from what homework I bring home school is harder and stricter than it was when he was in school.


What! Are you familiar with AP Physics? My school teaches it at junior/senior level but my mother wants it at freshman to do any good. Plus whenever I need help, I turn to my parents. Although it is unfair that they both did math-based majors in college.

Math hasn't changed in a long while. Newton invented calculus. Unless the "standards" are different where you lived and when/where your father grew up.

The problem with the education system where I live is that it is controlled by politicians and not people who are scientists/or know what is right for their child.

I don't see anything bad in school because they call my school a magnet-a school for smart, well-behaved kids where the kids are challenged by the best teachers in the area. However, I know other schools are bad, poor teaching, poor parenting (drugs,gangs) and so people who don't get into schools like mine apply for private schools or leave the county.

WxGeekVa, I don't mean to insult your dad or anything, but that is what I've seen/heard in my area of the country.
Good grief. Nevermind...
But wxgeekva, you don't have a clue to say it's much better today. I have witnessed the decline.

Hell, all you have to do is compare television shows of old with the trash you see today,
Quoting ScottLincoln:


No one is "backing" climate change, are they?


Really? I think you know exactly what I meant. Common that's just a low blow man.
The huge ULL east of florida looks impressive for what it is.Looks like it has some convection with it
Grother may be the only one on the blog older than me! You know you are getting old when you look around and see you are the oldest person in the Room more than not!!
BTW, we ended up with nearly 4 inches of rain today, and the airport about a mile from me recorded more than 4 inches. All from just one line of thunderstorms. When we get severe thunderstorm warnings around Tampa Bay, as I always have said, expect 2 to 4 inches of rain, unless they are moving super fast.

Link
I'm out to!
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
But wxgeekva, you don't have a clue to say it's much better today. I have witnessed the decline.

Hell, all you have to do is compare television shows of old with the trash you see today,


I wish I was old enough to see the great old shows. Seriously. The best thing I watch is watching those pickers on the history channel picking old stuff. I don't even know what I am talking about.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
But wxgeekva, you don't have a clue to say it's much better today. I have witnessed the decline.

Hell, all you have to do is compare television shows of old with the trash you see today,


That's what I'm trying to say... Television/news loves a good School bully/gang/drug story and that's all you hear. All the schools in my area are great schools and have higher than country averages.
G'nite y'all. I love the south. And severe weather. And this blog.
1175. hydrus
Emilia.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyway, I'm off for the night! I gotta rest, I have a date tomorrow with my girlfriend -___-

And we know how that's going to go.😃
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
I'm out to!


HAHA! I think you mean too. Not being mean, just poking fun. :)
Quoting Grothar:


And what do you think of my earlier analysis that 98E might be a threat to Baja California and possibly the US Southwest? See, everybody reads my jokes, but nobody comments on my astute weather reports. It hurts guys.


I bow to Guru Grothar!!
Good nite everyone.
1181. hydrus
Emilia
Quoting BobWallace:
I have a question...

Wouldn't that mean that you are forbidden to make statements which you know are not true?

I think that is the problem. Who says they know its not true?
Now I'm going to sleep, I'm out.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 030000 UTC
Lat : 14:56:59 N Lon : 119:09:06 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.8mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : -0.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

Quoting breeezee:
The huge ULL east of florida looks impressive for what it is.Looks like it has some convection with it

That ULL is enhancing the eastern outflow over the disturbance headed into the east GOM...that is why the east GOM is something to watch in the next 24 hours....
Quoting BobWallace:
I have a question...

Someone, who is not important, stated "Since we evolved from apes".

Now is it likely that there is anyone in America who has not been told that the theory of evolution does not, in any way or fashion, state that man evolved from apes?

Is it possible that the 'common ancestor' link is not pretty much universal?

OK, I fess. I had more than one question....

If you are a religious, Abrahamic-holy book person would you not be bound to the commandment to not bear false witness? Wouldn't that mean that you are forbidden to make statements which you know are not true?




My (informal) religious affiliation does't claim a holy book and has no bearing anyway, but... truth is relative. Facts are forever. Any religious person (from the abrahamic doctrines you mentioned) will be able to verify any statement they have made asTruth, but no facts can be presented. All is entrusted to faith, and it is hard to quantify that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And we know how that's going to go.😃


We're sneaking into a park late at night to stargaze on a blanket.

Take it as you wish.
1187. bappit
Quoting hydrus:
This model shows the moisture surge for the S.E.U.S......Link

I liked the other plots better. The IR brightness (coldest temps) of water vapor is highest where there are high clouds or moisture in the upper atmosphere. That's why it is good for seeing short waves and such. I prefer total precipitable water for the monsoon picture.
Quoting nigel20:


Very dangerous if the NAO continues in negative phase, we are going enter to august

I'm going to do a three part case for creation blog starting tomorrow. Will be as scientific and precise as possible. Koritheman stated earlier we aren't all born with the sense of a Creator. Every civilization, even the most remote; with no other outside connections has a belief in a "God" or Creator. Beauty, love, and so many, many miracles throughout time insist in a Creator in my belief. I will only comment on this in my blog from this point forward because it's very explosive. For this much of a back and forth though, on THIS subject, it's been very respectful. Thank you all for not being more cutting and sarcastic. I know it wasn't easy. I really do appreciate it though, because I enjoy this blog and agree with the vast majority of consensus in here.
1190. bappit
Quoting goosegirl1:



My (informal) religious affiliation does't claim a holy book and has no bearing anyway, but... truth is relative. Facts are forever. Any religious person (from the abrahamic doctrines you mentioned) will be able to verify any statement they have made asTruth, but no facts can be presented. All is entrusted to faith, and it is hard to quantify that.

What about truthiness?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Now with all the hype and false calls on it this year...
THIS IS ACTUALLY AN ANNULAR HURRICANE
*beep* *beep* *beep*
Red Alert...annular alert... immediate brodcast requested. An annular hurricane is deteced by WU and is predicted to hit no one right now. This is a life threatning situation and anyone in her way needs to get out of there. In a few days she will weaken to nothin. ...This is an annular hurricane alert...
*beep* *beep* *beep* NOT OFFICAL
1192. bappit
Quoting wxchaser97:
*beep* *beep* *beep*
Red Alert...annular alert... immediate brodcast requested. An annular hurricane is deteced by WU and is predicted to hit no one right now. This is a life threatning situation and anyone in her way needs to get out of there. In a few days she will weaken to nothin. ...This is an annular hurricane alert...
*beep* *beep* *beep*

Looks like spiral bands to me. Not annular.
1193. nigel20
98E
Quoting bappit:

Looks like spiral bands to me. Not annular.
Sarcasm: on and I know, this was a reply to a comment a while ago. I see that it is sprial banding, I just felt like posting that.
1196. nigel20
Eastern Pacific total ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy): 39.3
2012 Pacific hurricane season
Quoting bappit:

Looks like spiral bands to me. Not annular.

Emilia is annular. It's been mentioned in the Nhc discussion.
I'm trying really hard not to laugh wxchaser97. Need special flashing lights here to light up every time a statement comes to fruition and a scroll at the bottom to show who said it first. Major weather street cred.
1199. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We're sneaking into a park late at night to stargaze on a blanket.

Take it as you wish.


Are you driving your impromptu or the Toyota?
While everyone's still debating, I did a blog.
1201. bappit
.
Also to all those who say religion is a bad thing you have no idea what your talking about. I think the best quote you can possibly live by is "Take everything in moderation." This is the same with religion. Using religion as a moral compass is really quite healthy sense most religions outline good moral values. That being said take those morals you get from your religion and apply common sense.

To be honest I think religion and science can and will coexist. What in science disproves religion totally? What in religion disproves science totally? Really they can coexist and they should. I am not religious myself but I don't think being religious is wrong. What is wrong is someone taking there faith and letting it override any common sense.

And as to schools declining because of removal of the bible from the public school system I think that is untrue. I think what has caused the declined is the increasing lack of a father or mother in a family. I also think it is being caused because parents have really stopped telling there kids what is right and wrong in the appropriated manner. Not to mention the lack of funding many schools are afflicted with. Also if you think about it sense women are no longer typically becoming teachers you don't have some of the best minds teaching today's students! How do you fix this? By rising incentives for people to become teachers. I think that is all I will put into this discussion today.
Now whoever first called it annular when it was gets the flashing lights and scrolling fame. :)
1204. nigel20
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also to all those who say religion is a bad thing you have no idea what your talking about. I think the best quote you can possibly live by is "Take everything in moderation." This is the same with religion. Using religion as a moral compass is really quite healthy sense most religions outline good moral values. That being said take those morals you get from your religion and apply common sense.

To be honest I think religion and science can and will coexist. What in science disproves religion totally? What in religion disproves science totally? Really they can coexist and they should. I am not religious myself but I don't think being religious is wrong. What is wrong is someone taking there faith and letting it override any common sense.

And as to schools declining because of removal of the bible from the public school system I think that is untrue. I think what has caused the declined is the increasing lack of a father or mother in a family. I also think it is being caused because parents have really stopped telling kids what is right and wrong in the appropriated manner. Not to mention the lack of funding many schools are afflicted with. Also if you think about it sense women are no longer typically becoming teachers you don't have some of the best minds teaching today's students! How do you fix this? By rising incentives for people to become teachers. I think that is all I will put into this discussion today.

Agreed.
1205. Grothar
Good night boys and girls. You've exhausted my mental capabilities tonight, all three of them. Have fun and watch the tropics.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Anytime. But on a serious note you might like to read some of the links I posted at #1062. He write a lot more eloquently than myself.

I'm not naive to believe all of our social problems are directly a result of taking the Bible out of public schools but I think it played a big part.

I'm 48 years old and I can see the decline of societal behavior from my childhood to the present. I think to deny this is not accepting reality as well.

If I could only show you, or wxgeekva, some of the behavior exhibited in the public schools I taught in, then you would see it from my perspective. And there many public schools much worse than the ones I had the privilege of teaching in.


That has nothing to do with religion and everything to do with parents not doing their dang job and raising kids that have respect.
1207. MrMixon
Perhaps Grothar is onto something with the "threat to the southwest" analysis for 98E. We've had some huge fires in the Four Corners states this year. A massive precipitation event would reduce fire danger, but could be messy in post-burn areas. Wikipedia has a whole page for NEW MEXICO HURRICANES. Who knew?



1208. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:
Good night boys and girls. You've exhausted my mental capabilities tonight, all three of them. Have fun and watch the tropics.

Good night Grothar!



This is the line of severe thunderstorms approaching my area from earlier today, right after I took this picture a powerful lightning strike hit one of those high voltage power line towers! Thankfully I was in my car, but that distance is much closer than it appears! I was down right scarred after that. There wasn't any damage to the tower that I am aware of of, but they are designed for this as they have multiple grounding wires from lightning to ground out on. I did see smoke coming from the base though, the intense current from the strike probably burned some grass as it traveled into the ground.




This picture above is afterward, that's what nearly 4 inches of rain in a couples hours and an inch in 10 minutes did today in my neighborhood. The ground was already saturated too. The flooding is getting crazy around here. Many of the office rooms I clean on my night job were completely flooded tonight, they had serious flood damage and their electric system was also fried by lightning. The place I work at during my day job right down the street also had some of its electric system friend due to a voltage surge from lightning.




1210. j2008
Quoting MrMixon:
Perhaps Grothar is onto something with the "threat to the southwest" analysis for 98E. We've had some huge fires in the Four Corners states this year. A massive precipitation event would reduce fire danger, but could be messy in post-burn areas. Wikipedia has a whole page for NEW MEXICO HURRICANES. Who knew?



I would love that SW idea, I sure could use all the rain that a TC would bring.
Quoting KoritheMan:
While everyone's still debating, I did a blog.

Thanks Kori...read your update.

In my update today...I commented on the east GOM disturbance. Do you think I am being too "bullish" in my discussion of it?
1212. hydrus
Quoting Tribucanes:
I'm going to do a three part case for creation blog starting tomorrow. Will be as scientific and precise as possible. Koritheman stated earlier we aren't all born with the sense of a Creator. Every civilization, even the most remote; with no other outside connections has a belief in a "God" or Creator. Beauty, love, and so many, many miracles throughout time insist in a Creator in my belief. I will only comment on this in my blog from this point forward because it's very explosive. For this much of a back and forth though, on THIS subject, it's been very respectful. Thank you all for not being more cutting and sarcastic. I know it wasn't easy. I really do appreciate it though, because I enjoy this blog and agree with the vast majority of consensus in here.
A creation blog.?....That should be interesting...I would like to see your views on how we are all "connected" to God or the creator, and how everything works out in end..You refer to your next segment as explosive, In Revelations, the world is destroyed by fire this time around.
1213. hydrus
Quoting bappit:

I liked the other plots better. The IR brightness (coldest temps) of water vapor is highest where there are high clouds or moisture in the upper atmosphere. That's why it is good for seeing short waves and such. I prefer total precipitable water for the monsoon picture.
picky, picky, picky...:)
Quoting Tribucanes:
I'm going to do a three part case for creation blog starting tomorrow. Will be as scientific and precise as possible. Koritheman stated earlier we aren't all born with the sense of a Creator. Every civilization, even the most remote; with no other outside connections has a belief in a "God" or Creator. Beauty, love, and so many, many miracles throughout time insist in a Creator in my belief. I will only comment on this in my blog from this point forward because it's very explosive. For this much of a back and forth though, on THIS subject, it's been very respectful. Thank you all for not being more cutting and sarcastic. I know it wasn't easy. I really do appreciate it though, because I enjoy this blog and agree with the vast majority of consensus in here.


"Every civilization, even the most remote; with no other outside connections has a belief in a "God" or Creator."

I don't think you can prove anything with that argument. All civilizations have spoken languages. All civilizations have a knowledge of how to use fire.

Those things, along with religion, could have been invented prior to groups splitting off from the initial "tribe" of humans and evolving into different civilizations. Religion and language may be as ancient as our first group of ancestors in Africa.

Wheels, for example, were likely invented after the initial split. In fact, probably after the third immigration of Asians to North America. "Native" Americans did not have the wheel.
1215. hydrus
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Thanks Kori...read your update.

In my update today...I commented on the east GOM disturbance. Do you think I am being too "bullish" in my discussion of it?


Honestly, yes. I wouldn't go as far as to be explicit in indicating tropical cyclone formation.
Good night everyone I hope you have a wonderful Thursday.
Quoting Grothar:


Are you driving your impromptu or the Toyota?


Lol good one, I remember last week. And no, I'm driving my Lexus :P
Shaping up to be a N&NW Gulf year. 126GFS shows the high still kicking, mean trough looks to be setting up in the plains.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Honestly, yes. I wouldn't go as far as to be explicit in indicating tropical cyclone formation.

Yesterday I was merely saying "slight potential for a tropical disturbance"...but I saw the mid-level low developing over Florida and rather favorable upper winds...so I thought the situation may get more urgent...

What do you think its % chances for becoming a tropical cyclone are?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Yesterday I was merely saying "slight potential for a tropical disturbance"...but I saw the mid-level low developing over Florida and rather favorable upper winds...so I thought the situation may get more urgent...

What do you think its % chances for becoming a tropical cyclone are?


10% at best.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think that is the problem. Who says they know its not true?


After I posted my questions I realized that there could very well be people who have not been informed that the theory of evolution does not state that man evolved from ape.

Someone cloistered in a religious community or home-schooled by fundamentalist parents might well have been misinformed about the theory of evolution. Seems like that is what I was told when growing up. In the South. A long time ago.

So I'll change my question a bit. Is it possible that anyone who has been out in the "real" world and spent time on the internet has not heard that the theory of evolution points out common ancestry and not that man evolved from ape?

Do you think that anyone on this site would read me stating "The Theory of Evolution does not claim that man evolved from ape" and go "Wow! First time that I've heard that."?
1225. nigel20
Quoting sunlinepr:

Hey sunline. It's was pretty dry and hazy across most of Jamaica today...it seems as if you had similar weather conditions as well.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Evolution is not a fact, it is a theory. My defense will be vastly scientific in nature also, I'm out for now, be back later when topic has changed. This is my faith, this is what I believe; I believe this in good faith. I'm not trying to spread lies, I believe this with all my heart and soul. I love you naysayers too because I generally agree with the vast majority of opinions shared on WU. Kori, ya few subjects I'm guessing we would disagree on, this is certainly one of them. And we probably, it would be safe to say, would disagree very strongly; and that's okay.


Unfortunately, this appears to be where you and science part ways. You're conflating the colloquial definition of "theory" with the scientific meaning of the term. Or do you consider other theories, such as plate tectonics, or gravity, to be less than factual given their status as a theory.

Science is not about faith; it's not about what you believe; it's not about a holy book or a holy man, it's about observations leading to interpretations of how the natural world works. It's about what can be determined through a cycle of prediction, experimentation, critical analysis, and refinement, and it goes wherever the data leads. There are plenty of religious scientists of various faiths who do good work and compartmentalize their science and their faith appropriately. However, when one's tenets about the supernatural color how they view the natural world, and refuse to acknowledge where the evidence in front of them converges, that doesn't leave much room to actually do science anymore.

Not that that's necessarily always a bad thing-- there's all sorts of philosophical musings and discussions that would be educational and elucidating for everyone. However, it has no place in science. I'd recommend the TalkOrigins archive webpage for some background if you're interested in learning more about the science of evolution, which is even more settled science than climate change (unless you have a theological axe to grind...)
May as well clear this up, it's as good as of a time as any... It's not the same girl from last weekend, but a different one. You could say now she's my ex-ex-girlfriend :P Pretty much long story short, after the last breakup my friend who was my ex had some deep conversations which led to some truths which led to us getting back together. :-)

TL;dr got back with my ex after stuff happened :)

And I'm really happy about it too :-D
Hydrus, I meant explosive as it is explosive to talk about this subject openly on the blog. My blog will only be my defense of creation in a three part series. Tribulation is another story, and I can only be laughed out of the room so many times in one week. :)
Emilia and 98E.

Not sure what the fact that all civilizations have a creation story really means other than that we desperately do not want to be alone and that we have one of the most equally amazing and dangerous powers in existence, imagination.

We see the universe, we are aware of our existence within it, and want it to make sense. That doesn't mean it will oblige.


Good lord, lol. 144 GFS

Quoting nigel20:

Hey sunline. It's was pretty dry and hazy across most of Jamaica today...it seems as if you had similar weather conditions as well.


The same here... SAL was high..

Only a small shower in my area
1234. Grothar
Quoting MrMixon:
Perhaps Grothar is onto something with the "threat to the southwest" analysis for 98E. We've had some huge fires in the Four Corners states this year. A massive precipitation event would reduce fire danger, but could be messy in post-burn areas. Wikipedia has a whole page for NEW MEXICO HURRICANES. Who knew?





Thanks, MrMixon. I said it before the models came out earlier today. It looks like 98E wants to slide behind the ridge and pull a Northy. I don't know if it will be stronger than Emilia, but it looks like it could be bigger in size right now.
Quoting KoritheMan:


10% at best.

Interesting...what are your thoughts on what makes this a low probability event?
Quoting WxGeekVA:
May as well clear this up, it's as good as of a time as any... It's not the same girl from last weekend, but a different one. You could say now she's my ex-ex-girlfriend :P Pretty much long story short, after the last breakup my friend who was my ex had some deep conversations which led to some truths which led to us getting back together. :-)

TL;dr got back with my ex after stuff happened :)

And I'm really happy about it too :-D


Nice. Good luck!
Another heat wave coming on the GFS.
1238. geepy86
Quoting BobWallace:


After I posted my questions I realized that there could very well be people who have not been informed that the theory of evolution does not state that man evolved from ape.

Someone cloistered in a religious community or home-schooled by fundamentalist parents might well have been misinformed about the theory of evolution. Seems like that is what I was told when growing up. In the South. A long time ago.

So I'll change my question a bit. Is it possible that anyone who has been out in the "real" world and spent time on the internet has not heard that the theory of evolution points out common ancestry and not that man evolved from ape?

Do you think that anyone on this site would read me stating "The Theory of Evolution does not claim that man evolved from ape" and go "Wow! First time that I've heard that."?

my take on a theory, it is what it is....
Quoting Grothar:


I don't speak haiku.

But if I did my response would be:

Her winds are strong and her eye is hallow
but your analysis seems a little shallow.


no more shallow then yourself
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Interesting...what are your thoughts on what makes this a low probability event?


The mid-level vorticity has weakened, for one thing. In addition, wind reports from the Gulf, western Atlantic, and the Florida peninsula, suggest nothing remotely resembling a cyclonic circulation. The only thing this system has going for it is the very favorable diffluent upper pattern forecast by the GFS.
1244. nigel20
Have a good night everyone!

Emilia

98E
Quoting WxGeekVA:
May as well clear this up, it's as good as of a time as any... It's not the same girl from last weekend, but a different one. You could say now she's my ex-ex-girlfriend :P Pretty much long story short, after the last breakup my friend who was my ex had some deep conversations which led to some truths which led to us getting back together. :-)

TL;dr got back with my ex after stuff happened :)

And I'm really happy about it too :-D

Glad things are working for you....

For me...merely at the online phase with someone (and NO she aint on this blog LOL)...but she is mysteriously gettin harder to reach each day. This to forget about a 1st someone who probably never noticed me anyway. Add to that...now I saw a 3rd someone at a dinner party the other day (but I don't know what she thinks about me)...but we talked pretty well...

In short...don't know what to do....sigh......sorry for that but not in the best mood right now...
I'm out. Later all.



Strike....

I mean

out...
God this place is turning into a depressed single teenage boy blog.
Backs off for a couple days then BAMM. That is some serious heat. 216GFS

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
God this place is turning into a depressed single teenage boy blog.

If you are referring to comment 1247...you need to up the age a bit...just past my teenage years...LOL
Waiting for storms to flare up again here in the HGX CWA like last night. They caused a few problems this morning:





Moisture axis is a little further north tonight. Maybe that means I'll get in on some of the action this go around?



1255. geepy86
the heat is just relentless
Quoting nigel20:
Emilia



Thats not Daniel magically reinvigorated?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

If you are referring to comment 1247...you need to up the age a bit...just past my teenage years...LOL


LOL, I was sorta... but its been a topic of discussion for the past week. Go meet some girls! They really arent that hard to talk to I promise.
(click to enlarge)

I suspect storms may fire along the current line of weak echos north of Houston in an hour or two.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Backs off for a couple days then BAMM. That is some serious heat. 216GFS


The heat is literally off the scale. And oddly, for once TX isn't at the nexus of it.
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Grother, that was too funny.



Besides being Guru Grothar, he is also the King of Comedy!!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL, I was sorta... but its been a topic of discussion for the past week. Go meet some girls! They really arent that hard to talk to I promise.

I've done that...as comment 1247 said...but I don't know which way to go with who......
The 02Z run of the HRRR puts Harris County under the gauntlet:

Link

Possible we could get a invest sometime over the next 48hrs IF the vorticity over central florida moves west into the gom IMO.
00Z and 01Z HRRR runs do about the same thing. Things could get interesting...



Quoting stillwaiting:
Possible we could get a invest sometime over the next 48hrs IF the vorticity over central florida moves west into the gom IMO.

Your not the only one with that opinion...I've got that same assessment too. Earlier...Kori was not so gung-ho about it (he cited that the vorticity was weakening). I think that with the favorable upper ridge overhead...combined with the Bahamas upper low and Gulf upper low as enhanced outflow channels...even a subtle low pressure vorticity can spin up quickly.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
The 02Z run of the HRRR puts Harris County under the gauntlet:

Link


LOL...that's a heck of an acroynm...what does it stand for?
Quoting KoritheMan:


The mid-level vorticity has weakened, for one thing. In addition, wind reports from the Gulf, western Atlantic, and the Florida peninsula, suggest nothing remotely resembling a cyclonic circulation. The only thing this system has going for it is the very favorable diffluent upper pattern forecast by the GFS.
,IF it goes west over the next 12-18hrs,we could see development with the quite favorable UL conditions over the eastern 1/2 of the gom,the aoi has been drifting northerly over the last 12-18hrs.If it goes west better than 50% chance of invest in next 48hrs IMO
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Your not the only one with that opinion...I've got that same assessment too. Earlier...Kori was not so gung-ho about it (he cited that the vorticity was weakening). I think that with the favorable upper ridge overhead...combined with the Bahamas upper low and Gulf upper low as enhanced outflow channels...even a subtle low pressure vorticity can spin up quickly.


LOL...that's a heck of an acroynm...what does it stand for?

High Resolution Rapid Refresh (it runs one an hour).
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Your not the only one with that opinion...I've got that same assessment too. Earlier...Kori was not so gung-ho about it (he cited that the vorticity was weakening). I think that with the favorable upper ridge overhead...combined with the Bahamas upper low and Gulf upper low as enhanced outflow channels...even a subtle low pressure vorticity can spin up quickly.


LOL...that's a heck of an acroynm...what does it stand for?

Indulge a 2006 noob, what is this L over FL everybody is talking about? Is is currently theoretical?


12Z EURO has a little bit wind in eastern gulf 18-20 kts at 850mb. When does the 00Z come out?

East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120532
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
EMILIA...LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER
OF CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IF THIS
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...
NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


12Z EURO has a little bit wind in eastern gulf 18-20 kts at 850mb. When does the 00Z come out?

In an hour or two. I'm not exactly sure, I'm usually sleeping at this point. :P It's in the very near future though.
Quoting redwagon:

Indulge a 2006 noob, what is this L over FL everybody is talking about? Is is currently theoretical?

Link
Scroll back in time by clicking the -3hr button a few times in the upper-left. The "low" we've been talking about is a mid-level low....shown by green-ish and orange-ish shadings on that 850 mb CIMSS product. It was better defined over south Florida a few hours ago than it is now. I'll have to admit that Kori is on to something when he says the mid-level low was weakening...as the amount of 850 mb CIMSS vorticity over Florida has reduced.

But we've still got the surface tropical wave following behind about to enter the picture. And the upper winds are favorable...Kori also said upper winds are favorable...so I am still wary of this area...


Looks like it's not too far away from a TD,maybe by morning.
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE SATURDAY...
PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE GUIDANCE AGREES REGARDING THIS SYSTEMS RETROGRESSION. THE
ONLY PIECES OF GUIDANCE NOT WEAKER THAN THE 18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN WITH THE 00Z GFS AN
INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION. THE 00Z NAM/00Z UKMET ARE THE WEAKEST. A
12Z ECMWF/00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS COMPROMISE WILL BE PREFERRED HERE
WITH ONLY AVERAGE CONFIDENCE AS THE GUIDANCE SOMETIMES SHOWS DAY
TO DAY CHANGES WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS/TUTT CELLS RETROGRADING
THROUGH THE SUBTROPICS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

THE 00Z NAM IS THE DEEPEST WITH THIS SYSTEM /BRIEFLY MATCHED BY
THE 00Z UKMET DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST/...AND
INDUCES A NOTICEABLE SURFACE LOW WITH IT WHICH DRIFTS TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST NOT SEEN ON THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
ONLY FIVE OF THE 90 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WITHIN THE 21Z SREF ABOUT EIGHT MEMBERS SHOW THIS
SYSTEMS EXISTENCE...WITH THE ETA MEMBERS SHOWING THEIR
CHARACTERISTIC SOUTHERN TRACK WHILE THE WRF MEMBERS STEER IT
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. WHILE THERE WAS A SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE
CONVECTIVE BLOW UP WITH THIS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY
HOSTILE...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH SUPPORT AMONGST THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE NAMS STRONGER
DEPICTION AT THIS TIME.
THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM SOLUTION
HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

Quoting 1900hurricane:
The 02Z run of the HRRR puts Harris County under the gauntlet:

Link



Ruh roh.
Quoting nofailsafe:


Ruh roh.

Indeed. If that verifies, rain of that magnitude during a morning commute will cause problems, I guarantee that.
1282. JLPR2
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 106.5W T2.5/2.5 98E

That's quite a jump, T# supports a TD.
Quoting JLPR2:
12/0600 UTC 13.2N 106.5W T2.5/2.5 98E

That's quite a jump, T# supports a TD.

Not only does it support a TD, but also supports a low-end tropical storm. If I'm not mistaken, T2.5 corresponds to 35 kts.
Also, since NHC has given 98E a 100% chance of becoming a TD, advisories on TD 6-E will probably be issued at 5am or 11am today.
000
WHXX01 KMIA 120720
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0720 UTC THU JUL 12 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX (EP062012) 20120712 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120712 0600 120712 1800 120713 0600 120713 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 106.1W 14.1N 107.4W 14.7N 108.7W 15.5N 110.0W
BAMD 13.5N 106.1W 14.1N 107.5W 14.7N 108.7W 15.3N 110.0W
BAMM 13.5N 106.1W 14.2N 107.6W 14.9N 108.9W 15.6N 110.2W
LBAR 13.5N 106.1W 14.2N 107.9W 15.3N 110.1W 16.2N 112.3W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 54KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 47KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120714 0600 120715 0600 120716 0600 120717 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 111.3W 17.9N 114.3W 19.5N 117.9W 20.9N 121.1W
BAMD 15.8N 111.3W 17.1N 114.2W 18.9N 117.2W 21.2N 119.7W
BAMM 16.2N 111.5W 17.6N 114.3W 19.4N 117.6W 21.2N 120.4W
LBAR 17.2N 114.4W 18.1N 118.2W 19.4N 121.1W 21.3N 123.0W
SHIP 60KTS 62KTS 52KTS 38KTS
DSHP 60KTS 62KTS 52KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 106.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 104.1W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 12.1N LONM24 = 102.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1007MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

And here it is. TD 6-E.
Also, Emilia has re-weakened to upper Category 2 strength, as of the 06Z ATCF.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
May as well clear this up, it's as good as of a time as any... It's not the same girl from last weekend, but a different one. You could say now she's my ex-ex-girlfriend :P Pretty much long story short, after the last breakup my friend who was my ex had some deep conversations which led to some truths which led to us getting back together. :-)

TL;dr got back with my ex after stuff happened :)

And I'm really happy about it too :-D
Daaaaamn player
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Joe, I saw your post earlier about the tropical moisture coming up, just wanted to say I hope you get some rain up there in the mountains!
Here we go, things are starting to fire now, just where I expected them.

Quoting Civicane49:
Just a friendly reminder, please keep politics off this weather blog.

And religion
1290. vanwx
That is less than 1/2 of what hit north of Corpus Christi, but"ouch'. I think we need a new name for such storms. No storm surge, high winds, eye walls but that has got to hurt,,it's the new post hurricane disaster. It may npt have the drama of a hurricane but people are still out of work and their houses are ruined. My best wishes for a good recovery.
re, post 1209
Quoting Astrometeor:


My family (cousins, aunts, uncles, grandparents) have a Christmas in July every year. We do a coin grab and a Secret Santa. Say hi, share stories and meet up with each other basically. It's often the only time I get to see my cousins.

Family reunion 2nd weekend of June every year, calm time between planting and main harvest, usually know which fields have corn and such ripe enough for dinner. Pulling 80-100 family during the past decade. The 84th (we think) annual reunion was last month. Always interesting
Good morning, everyone.

Just got in from a night of fishing. Sitting down having a bowl of soup before we go back to clean and sell them. Anyone interested in Yellowtail Snapper? I have a couple of hundred pounds to sell!

Anyway, need to check the weather and get going.

Have a great day!

Lindy
I see the FL low now.. it just exited FL to the W. Guess I was rain-blinded earlier. Not a big one, but it'll do.
And generally if the GOM, if you can see it, it WILL develop.
1294. LargoFl
..............................good morning folks
1295. LargoFl
1296. LargoFl
1297. LargoFl
1298. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
610 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

FLZ069-070-121045-
COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY FL INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL
610 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 605 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG WINDS IS ENTERING COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF BONITA SPRINGS
TO 4 MILES WEST OF MARCO ISLAND TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAPE
ROMANO...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
NAPLES...
SOUTH NAPLES...
EAST NAPLES...
BELLE MEADE...
CAPE ROMANO...
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 45 MPH. THESE WINDS
CAN DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

ALSO...DEVELOPING IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS.

LAT...LON 2632 8181 2632 8167 2636 8166 2638 8153
2595 8154 2589 8156 2590 8162 2589 8164
2590 8165 2589 8168 2586 8166 2584 8168
2591 8174 2599 8176 2609 8181 2630 8184
TIME...MOT...LOC 1007Z 267DEG 17KT 2628 8177 2595 8178
2576 8182

$$

60
1299. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
IS IS LIKELY THAT THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE SEA BREEZES
TO BRING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH SEVERAL STORMS LIKELY REACHING
SEVERE LEVELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
WILL BRING PERIODS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Good morning.

Good morning eveyone
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 100000 UTC
Lat : 15:05:00 N Lon : 120:25:21 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.5 5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0421 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL

VALID 120921Z - 121145Z

SUMMARY...A SW/NE-ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD PERSIST NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 2 IN/HR.

DISCUSSION...A 10-15 MILE WIDE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BLOSSOMED DURING
THE PAST HOUR...CENTERED FROM COLORADO TO POLK COUNTIES AS OF 0910Z.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED IN RESPONSE TO MODERATE
LOW-LEVEL WAA /INFERRED BY HGX VWP DATA/ AND PERHAPS AIDED BY A
REMNANT MCV JUST E OF GALVESTON BAY. WITHIN THIS BAND...THE CONROE
ASOS /KCXO/ MEASURED 2.78 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE 72 MINUTES ENDING AT
0913Z. WITH GPS PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS COULD BECOME SUBSTANTIAL OWING TO MODEST MEAN SWLY
FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATION CORRIDOR...RESULTING IN REPEATED
TRAINING OF CELLS. THIS REGIME SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS UNTIL LAPSE RATES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY NEUTRAL AND CONVECTION
WANES.

..GRAMS.. 07/12/2012


ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 29779684 30619534 31299459 31409415 31249375 31069381
30219478 29819568 29549649 29609681 29779684

1306. icmoore
img src="Photobucket">

Good morning. A little cooler here in Madeira Beach this morning at 78 degrees after getting 1.70" of rain yesterday afternoon. Today's forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms likely after noon.
This a shot I took of the clouds across the Boca Ciega Bay heading over to us yesterday afternoon.
big.winterstorm.expected.tomoorow.s.africa
Temperatures will moderate to around 90 degrees as we head toward the Weekend, with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Clouds and possible showers over the weekend will likely keep maxes stuck in the 80s, but 90 degrees is likely to return early next week.
Morning guys

Six-E looks massive!
Good morning.

The daily SOI continues to be in positive for a 5th day in a row. If this continues for a while,then El Nino may have to wait a while longer.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

The daily SOI continues to be in positive for a 5th day in a row. If this continues for a while,then El Nino may have to wait a while longer.

Link

Wow!

Niño 1+2 cooled slightly at last update too so it could be another what 3 weeks tacked on with the cooling and positive SOI
I've got to go for a while:
Here is today, pretty high in tahiti for going onwards el niño


Date. Tahiti. Darwin. Daily. 30 day. 90 day
12 Jul 2012 1015.36 1011.45 18.22 -7.77 -3.48
Boring weather in the E Carib, I would love the ULL to the north to dive into us and bring rain!
Good Morning Folks. Looking at the SE US loops this morning, looking like another round of rain for the Gulf States from Texas to Florida and daytime heating-sea breeze convection will contribute to some heavy t-storms, The next round for LA heading in from Texas at the moment. While sheer is low around Florida, no significant pressure issues with the Naples bouy location near that little patch of convection:

Station NPSF1
NOS
Location: 26.130N 81.807W
Date: Thu, 12 Jul 2012 11:06:00 UTC

Winds: WSW (240°) at 9.9 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in
Air Temperature: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 85.3 F




I got up and read back a few pages. Here is my only coment.

When the Atlantic is quite things get a little off subject in the wee hours.
1319. LargoFl
Quoting icmoore:
img src="Photobucket">

Good morning. A little cooler here in Madeira Beach this morning at 78 degrees after getting 1.70" of rain yesterday afternoon. Today's forecast calls for a 60% chance of thunderstorms likely after noon.
This a shot I took of the clouds across the Boca Ciega Bay heading over to us yesterday afternoon.
..nice pic there
Quoting CaribBoy:
Boring weather in the E Carib, I would love the ULL to the north to dive into us and bring rain!


At least in PR the ENE flow that the ULL has in the position it is now,is bringing scattered showers. Let's see if the trough and Tropical Wave that is now at 43W combine to really bring rainy weather this weekend.

1321. LargoFl
1322. LargoFl
Per the NCEP Caribbean desk, the rain should pick up later for PR and parts nearby over the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
715 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 61W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PESTERING THE USVI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT IS ALSO RISING...INCREASING TO 35-40MM.

AS THE LOW/TUTT ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...TO ESTABLISH ALONG 67W/68W LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON ITS WAKE...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PR/USVI THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINING PWAT OF 35-40MM AND FAVORING K INDEX VALUES
OF 30-32.

THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY WET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH AGREEING ON BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT 15-20MM. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH CELLS QUICKLY SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24 HRS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)




1324. LargoFl
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Per the NCEP Caribbean desk, the rain should pick up later for PR and parts nearby over the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
715 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A RETROGRESSING TUTT LOW NOW CENTERS NEAR 25N 61W...ANCHORING A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PESTERING THE USVI/PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. PWAT IS ALSO RISING...INCREASING TO 35-40MM.

AS THE LOW/TUTT ROLLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION. AT LOW LEVELS...THE TROUGH ALOFT
WILL SUSTAIN AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES...TO ESTABLISH ALONG 67W/68W LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY PULL EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ON ITS WAKE...A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PR/USVI THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...SUSTAINING PWAT OF 35-40MM AND FAVORING K INDEX VALUES
OF 30-32.

THIS TRANSLATES TO GENERALLY WET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH AGREEING ON BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO PEAK AT 15-20MM. CONSIDERING THE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WE EXPECT
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WHAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS TO INITIALLY FAVOR ACTIVITY ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH CELLS QUICKLY SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. MOST ACTIVE IS TO CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 24 HRS AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO PEAK AT 25-50MM...WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-100MM. THIS IS TO REPEAT
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY.

DURING MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AND ONCE AGAIN FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ON SUNDAY-MONDAY.

MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)




..this is good they have been looking for rain
1325. LargoFl
if you guys look at the wunderground ssts you notice a light orange line forming near the equator. thats shows a cooling and a slowdown of the development of el nino
Quoting Autistic2:
I got up and read back a few pages. Here is my only coment.

When the Atlantic is quite things get a little off subject in the wee hours.


What was talked about?
1328. LargoFl
Might be getting a bit bad in Texas, they are activating their spotters and emergency managers there..stay alert folks in texas....................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING BY EVENING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO CONROE TO COLUMBUS LINE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GROUND IS INCREASINGLY SATURATED AND HEAVY
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR
ACTIVATION.
$$
1329. LargoFl
1330. LargoFl
Morning everyone. With all the tropical weather it feels like it should be August, not July. More rain here in Louisiana and we're not complaining at all. Everyone have a great day!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


At least in PR the ENE flow that the ULL has in the position it is now,is bringing scattered showers. Let's see if the trough and Tropical Wave that is now at 43W combine to really bring rainy weather this weekend.



It would be fine for my poor plants :)
1333. LargoFl
Another feature out there is the ULL heading in towards Florida at around 60W-25N. Some vorticity was noted on it yesterday and I wanted to take a look at it this morning. It is wrapping in a little more convection than yesterday morning on the east side and still slowly trying to get down to the surface but it is surrounded by dry air which is a problem. The models do not develop or take any note of this feature and the possibility of a "work down to the surface" ULL is one the rarest of the ways that a tropical storm can get going but it has been a little persistent over the past 24 hours.

Here is the mid-level vort on this one:

Link

Here it the extremely dry air getting sucked into it on the WV loop:

Link
1335. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
..nice pic there


Thank you, Largo! The skies were looking like ink so I grabbed the camera and walked to the corner and wow I saw some pretty impressive clouds! I lived in inland FL my whole life until last Dec so the weather on the coast is all new to me. Sounds like more on tap for both of us through at least Sat.
There's a low NNW of Lake O this morning and once daytime heating really kicks in then expect thunderstorms to fire fast across C FL. Infact there could be some significant flooding of low lying areas from Orlando west to Tampa especially for areas that have seen 5" to 10" of rain over the last week.

Link
The low appears to be around Sebring,FL. This will only agitate an unstable atmosphere across C FL.
Crown Weather has a good discussion this morning about the Florida AOI.

Link
Quoting icmoore:


Thank you, Largo! The skies were looking like ink so I grabbed the camera and walked to the corner and wow I saw some pretty impressive clouds! I lived in inland FL my whole life until last Dec so the weather on the coast is all new to me. Sounds like more on tap for both of us through at least Sat.


I second that! Very nice shot of that storm coming in.
1340. LargoFl
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The low appears to be around Sebring,FL. This will only agitate an unstable atmosphere across C FL.
yes local mets say it might get severe this afternoon
Quoting weatherh98:


What was talked about?


School, God, Religion, Science, faults of society, etc
Look at that eye of Emilia.. impressive
1343. LargoFl
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Crown Weather has a good discussion this morning about the Florida AOI.

Link
..thanks for the link, I kinda agree with him, florida needs be be very watchful this weekend,something just does not seem right, like something is trying to build..well we shall see huh
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning everyone. With all the tropical weather it feels like it should be August, not July. More rain here in Louisiana and we're not complaining at all. Everyone have a great day!



I am loving it, so much better than the extreme dry heat.
Quoting Charliesgirl:



I am loving it, so much better than the extreme dry heat.


Oh yes! Though I hope it gives New Orleans a break this weekend when I head down there. I'm going to love my water bill this month with not having to water all the garden everyday.
1346. LargoFl
1347. LargoFl
730 AM CDT THU JUL 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR
CYPRESS CREEK AT GRANT ROAD.
* UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 38.5 FEET.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 36.7 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE CREEK ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED RISE TO NEAR 39 TO 39.5 FEET EXPECTED
* AT 38.9 FEET...118.9 FEET MSL...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS AS WATER TOPS
THE BANKS OF THE MAIN CHANNEL.
Emilia is a major once more:

EP, 05, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1209W, 100, 960, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 250, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EMILIA, D
EP, 05, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1209W, 100, 960, HU,
Major Hurricane again
1350. LargoFl
..this was near me in seminole yesterday as that line approached us
I will do my part to help something spin up in the Atlantic.

I am going out in my boat and drive in a big circle and see if I can start spome vortivity at the surface.

Or at least have some fun with the kids in a tube.

Be back tonight
12/1200 UTC 15.0N 120.9W T5.5/5.5 EMILIA -- East Pacific
12/1200 UTC 13.7N 106.8W T2.5/2.5 06E -- East Pacific

Emilia ADT
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 100000 UTC Lat : 15:05:00 N Lon : 120:25:21 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt
Final/Adj/Raw
5.3 /5.5/5.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km
Center Temp : 5.6C Cloud Region Temp : -61.6C
Scene Type : EYE

Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

06E ADT (now Fabio)
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 114500 UTC Lat : 13:41:11 N Lon : 106:40:35 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1007.0mb/ 30.0kt
Final/Adj/Raw
2.0 /2.2/2.2

Center Temp : -70.1C Cloud Region Temp : -64.9C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Weakening Flag : OFF Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

----
ATCF notes 06E was a depression a day ago.
EP, 06, 2012071112, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1033W, 25, 1005, TD,

Emilia has re-re-strengthened into a Major Hurricane.
EP, 05, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 151N, 1209W, 100, 960, HU,

06E is now Fabio.
EP, 06, 2012071212, , BEST, 0, 136N, 1069W, 35, 1002, TS,
1353. Grothar
Reading back on the blog this morning, most of you mentioned some very important features. That little low currently off the SW coast of Florida should be watched carefully. While none of the models develop yet, it could begin responding to a little weakness to its NW and begin combining with the moisture currently about to move over Florida. There could be development in the Gulf. Wind shear is pretty low. The SE US from Louisian to the Florida panhandle should expect some heavy showers this weekend.



98E is very large and has a tremendous amount of energy in its center. There is no reason it should not be at least a Cat2 in a few days. Extremely cold cloud tops.



I am still expecting to see some development in the Atlantic, although none of the models have anything yet.

1354. icmoore
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I second that! Very nice shot of that storm coming in.


Thank you, StormTracker! I always appreciate your weather insight and observations.
Quoting Grothar:
The SE US from Louisian to the Florida panhandle should expect some heavy showers this weekend.


That's because I'm spending a 'birthday' weekend in New Orleans!! My birthday's not until next Monday, the day I'll head back home.
1356. icmoore
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Crown Weather has a good discussion this morning about the Florida AOI.

Link


Very interesting, thanks for posting the link!
Good Morning from America's Left Coast
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good Morning from America's Left Coast

Good morning, from near the Chesapeake Bay! lol
"Unprecedented" rainfall today in southwestern Japan has led to extreme flash flooding and mudslides. 20" of rain fell in Aso in just 8 hours this morning, killing at least six people, with 20 still missing.

Japan flood

Japan flood

Probably just a coincidence, though. Yeah, that's it. Just another coincidence. Another meteorological coincidence. Another freak, unprecedented, deadly, and destructive meteorological coincidence.. :-\
Quoting weatherh98:

Wow!

Niño 1+2 cooled slightly at last update too so it could be another what 3 weeks tacked on with the cooling and positive SOI


Ihope it holds off til NDJ or DJF, we seem to get the best rain here in Southern California.
Well last night was interesting, had 30 mins of continuous cloud to ground lightning, and i mean continuous - no breaks, always lightning somewhere.
Lots of close CG lightning sounded like artillery cause they were 'exploding' close to my house.
And a tstorm to my SE in Atlanta had 5.67 in/hr rainfall rates.

Fun to say the least, but im sure someone's house or tree got struck by lightning
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Unprecedented" rainfall today in southwestern Japan has led to extreme flash flooding and mudslides. 20" of rain fell in Aso in just 8 hours this morning, killing at least six people, with 20 still missing.

Japan flood

Japan flood

Probably just a coincidence, though. Yeah, that's it. Just another coincidence. Another meteorological coincidence. Another freak, unprecedented, deadly, and destructive meteorological coincidence.. :-\


Wow! Another example of "Weather on Steriods".
Quoting aislinnpaps:


That's because I'm spending a 'birthday' weekend in New Orleans!! My birthday's not until next Monday, the day I'll head back home.


Vampire festival in the Quarter this weekend....be careful and have fun here in our wonderland
Quoting Grothar:
Reading back on the blog this morning, most of you mentioned some very important features. That little low currently off the SW coast of Florida should be watched carefully. While none of the models develop yet, it could begin responding to a little weakness to its NW and begin combining with the moisture currently about to move over Florida. There could be development in the Gulf. Wind shear is pretty low. The SE US from Louisian to the Florida panhandle should expect some heavy showers this weekend.



98E is very large and has a tremendous amount of energy in its center. There is no reason it should not be at least a Cat2 in a few days. Extremely cold cloud tops.



I am still expecting to see some development in the Atlantic, although none of the models have anything yet.





Boy the wave coming off Africa looks impressive!
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Unprecedented" rainfall today in southwestern Japan has led to extreme flash flooding and mudslides. 20" of rain fell in Aso in just 8 hours this morning, killing at least six people, with 20 still missing.

Japan flood

Japan flood

Probably just a coincidence, though. Yeah, that's it. Just another coincidence. Another meteorological coincidence. Another freak, unprecedented, deadly, and destructive meteorological coincidence.. :-\

Goddang.
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Unprecedented" rainfall today in southwestern Japan has led to extreme flash flooding and mudslides. 20" of rain fell in Aso in just 8 hours this morning, killing at least six people, with 20 still missing.

Japan flood

Japan flood

Probably just a coincidence, though. Yeah, that's it. Just another coincidence... :-\



Are you trying to start another round of GCC talks? I seem to notice that you are very active in that area.

Personally I think the world is changing but we don't have much to do with it.

I will say this for you, you dont just emit emotion but try (and do) support your ideas with hard science.

I disagre with but RESPECT you for that. I am open to the option that I could be wrong (imagine that!)again :)
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Crown Weather has a good discussion this morning about the Florida AOI.

Link


really, a TD?
jokers
Quoting Neapolitan:
"Unprecedented" rainfall today in southwestern Japan has led to extreme flash flooding and mudslides. 20" of rain fell in Aso in just 8 hours this morning, killing at least six people, with 20 still missing.

Japan flood

Japan flood

Probably just a coincidence, though. Yeah, that's it. Just another coincidence. Another meteorological coincidence. Another freak, unprecedented, deadly, and destructive meteorological coincidence.. :-\


Yea, this never happened in 1603, or did it. Don't know, these localized isolated events weren't documented like they are today. Hell, do we even have daily rainfall reports from then. Didn't think so. I blame "climate change" on technology - just sayin.
1369. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Well last night was interesting, had 30 mins of continuous cloud to ground lightning, and i mean continuous - no breaks, always lightning somewhere.
Lots of close CG sounded like artillery cause they were 'exploding' close to my house.
And a tstorm to my SE in Atlanta had 5.67 in/hr rainfall rates.

Fun to say the least, but im sure someone's house or tree got struck by lightning
..did you get some good rain out of it?
1370. LargoFl
.........................stormtracker you have some coming in from the atlantic, probably be by you later on
Quoting Grothar:


I am still expecting to see some development in the Atlantic, although none of the models have anything yet.


That's a good wave Gro, seems like it could be trouble. But on the other hand, like TWX said, the Atlantic is pretty hostile right now and nothing can really form with all the ULLs.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, this never happened in 1603, or did it. Don't know, these localized isolated events weren't documented like they are today. Hell, do we even have daily rainfall reports from then. Didn't think so. I blame "climate change" on technology - just sayin.


"I don't know if it did, but I'm going to assume it didn't, because my argumentum ad ignorantiam is just as good, right?"
1374. yoboi
Quoting BobWallace:


"Every civilization, even the most remote; with no other outside connections has a belief in a "God" or Creator."

I don't think you can prove anything with that argument. All civilizations have spoken languages. All civilizations have a knowledge of how to use fire.

Those things, along with religion, could have been invented prior to groups splitting off from the initial "tribe" of humans and evolving into different civilizations. Religion and language may be as ancient as our first group of ancestors in Africa.

Wheels, for example, were likely invented after the initial split. In fact, probably after the third immigration of Asians to North America. "Native" Americans did not have the wheel.



when you get finished trolling the middle school playground; I'll be your huckleberry.......
1375. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW AND MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. STEERING WINDS WILL
PUSH THE STORMS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE THE GREATER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 TO 50 MPH WHICH WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND TEMPORARY FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
OVER THE INLAND LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FOCUSED
OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

$$
Quoting schistkicker:


"I don't know if it did, but I'm going to assume it didn't, because my argumentum ad ignorantiam is just as good, right?"


Just common sense sir.
1377. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:
But, notwithstanding the ridiculous and highly damaging Citizens United decision, they absolutely do


So let me get this straight; Your view is that corporations should not have the free speech rights to speak out for and/or against thier representatives? Are corporations not made up of individual citizens? As a business owner, I have no right to support candidates I believe help my interests?
Quoting LargoFl:
..did you get some good rain out of it?


buckets.

about 1.5 inches in 20mins.
so 4.5 in/hr

30-45 mph winds too, but we missed the hail as usual.

The jordan curse continues.
first storm weakens to no more severe hail and just some wimpy gust winds before it gets here.
Second storm dies completely
Of topic but..

after about 400 hours of swimming lifting weights and swim meets, it is being condensed into the final product, 4 days and 16 races. I probably wont be on much after 4 oclock today. hope nothing happens in the tropics while im out, i dont want to miss anything.

Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, this never happened in 1603, or did it. Don't know, these localized isolated events weren't documented like they are today. Hell, do we even have daily rainfall reports from then. Didn't think so. I blame "climate change" on technology - just sayin.
I dunno; the Japanese have a long, illustrious, and well-documented history. If they say 20" of rain in 8 hours--a sustained rate of 2.5" inches per hour--in this town hasn't happened before to the best of anyone's knowledge, I'm inclined to believe them.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


buckets.

about 1.5 inches in 20mins.
so 4.5 in/hr

30-45 mph winds too, but we missed the hail as usual.

The jordan curse continues.
first storm weakens to no more severe hail and just some wimpy gust winds before it gets here.
Second storm dies completely


Im waiting for my daily inch :) Probably going to come later in the afternoon.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno; the Japanese have a long, illustrious, and well-documented history. If they say 20" of rain in 8 hours--a sustained rate of 2.5" inches per hour--in this town hasn't happened before to the best of anyone's knowledge, I'm inclined to believe them.


And there in lies the main problem with climate change. Do you choose to believe the known 150 years and the expansion and more accuracy of technlogy or do you want thorough and COMPLETEevidence

or you may think its political:)
Someone made a reference yesterday to Dr. Master's "sports" analogy in terms of recent weather events (what is the world coming to). I was just reading the NOAA paper on climate change and found another "sports" quote. These analogies seem to be the current rage; perhaps the scientists are trying to break it down to a simple analogy that most regular folks can relate to............. :)


Climate is what a boxer trains for but weather throws the punches (D. Arndt 2012, personal communication). Attribution analyzes, such as those in this article, have the potential to inform the necessary training and adaptation options for societies in dealing with the punches weather and climate extremes throw their way.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea, this never happened in 1603, or did it. Don't know, these localized isolated events weren't documented like they are today. Hell, do we even have daily rainfall reports from then. Didn't think so. I blame "climate change" on technology - just sayin.


You might have a valid point about the rain in 1603. However extrapolating from that point to blaming global warming on new record keeping capabilities (i.e. ignoring all the other evidence) is stupid.

Just sayin.
Quoting greentortuloni:


You might have a valid point about the rain in 1603. However extrapolating from that point to blaming global warming on new record keeping capabilities (i.e. ignoring all the other evidence) is stupid.

Just sayin.


another word for guessing
They are covering all the bases from baseball to boxing....I suppose a football analogy is in the works..........
Quoting weatherh98:
Of topic but..

after about 400 hours of swimming lifting weights and swim meets, it is being condensed into the final product, 4 days and 16 races. I probably wont be on much after 4 oclock today. hope nothing happens in the tropics while im out, i dont want to miss anything.



Good Luck.
I love meets like these until its the day of them
1388. LargoFl
As a business owner, I have no right to support candidates I believe help my interests?.............................this one statement is what is destroying this country, the politicians who are supported by this..in both parties,are now tied to this supporter and those like him and will make policies that enrich this supporting business, forgetting the regular citizen who also supported him......money..should be taken out of politics..but we all know That wont happen, its no wonder huge amounts of americans have dropped out of voting for either party in disgust
Quoting weatherh98:


another word for guessing


Or assuming....hence the XTRP model LOL
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Good Luck.
I love meets like these until its the day of them


Im so nervous. but i have faith that kris put me where i need to be
Quoting CJ5:


So let me get this straight; Your view is that corporations should not have the free speech rights to speak out for and/or against thier representatives? Are corporations not made up of individual citizens? As a business owner, I have no right to support candidates I believe help my interests?
Well, this is certainly not the forum to get into such things. But, no, while corporations should have the right to support issues and candidates of their choosing, they absolutely should not have the right to anonymously dump millions into campaigns, thereby unduly influencing the outcome of elections and corrupting democracy. Period. Regardless of what some keep insisting, corporations are not people.

You know, there's a reason even some once-supportive justices have reversed their stance on Citizens United.
Quoting StormPro:


Or assuming....hence the XTRP model LOL


You know what they say bout Assyoumeng rightLOL

oh yea the same model that put debby in the gulf for two weeks
as.long.as.we.dont.hear....homerun
Quoting weatherh98:


Im so nervous. but i have faith that kris put me where i need to be


dont worry, everything will go great thats shorter than 400...

Above that....good luck

sincerely,
a sprinter
Quoting islander101010:
as.long.as.we.dont.hear....homerun


Or Mankind having to throw a "Hail Mary" pass.......
Quoting weatherh98:


You know what they say bout Assyoumeng rightLOL

oh yea the same model that put debby in the gulf for two weeks


my mom used to tell me not to assume things, find out for sure, because when you assume, you make an a** of yourself
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Or Mankind having to throw a "Hail Mary" pass.......


only crown weather does that
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, this is certainly not the forum to get into such things. But, no, while corporations should have the right to support issues and candidates of their choosing, they absolutely should not have the right to anonymously dump millions into campaigns, thereby unduly influencing the outcome of elections and corrupting democracy. Period. Regardless of what some keep insisting, corporations are not people.

You know, there's a reason even some once-supportive justices have reversed their stance on Citizens United.


when im old enough to vote, Im voting for who i am voting for, advertisements on tv are twisted and sick.

they take little good things and make them sound great. they ignore the bad things.

propaganda i tell ya
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


dont worry, everything will go great thats shorter than 400...

Above that....good luck

sincerely,
a sprinter


im doing the 2 im 2 free 2 back 1 free 1 back 50 free

sincerley,
another sprinter
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, this is certainly not the forum to get into such things. But, no, while corporations should have the right to support issues and candidates of their choosing, they absolutely should not have the right to anonymously dump millions into campaigns, thereby unduly influencing the outcome of elections and corrupting democracy. Period. Regardless of what some keep insisting, corporations are not people.

You know, there's a reason even some once-supportive justices have reversed their stance on Citizens United.


Corporations can do whatever they want to in elections, they are private, whether we like it or not.
And with every action comes a reaction, other corporations and entities will oppose such a corporation, if not in one area, in another.
If you started a corporation, im sure you would want it to do whatever it could to support anti-AGW, including pumping billions of dollars into the fight

but as you say, lets not discuss it here
1401. CJ5
Quoting LargoFl:
As a business owner, I have no right to support candidates I believe help my interests?.............................this one statement is what is destroying this country, the politicians who are supported by this..in both parties,are now tied to this supporter and those like him and will make policies that enrich this supporting business, forgetting the regular citizen who also supported him......money..should be taken out of politics..but we all know That wont happen, its no wonder huge amounts of americans have dropped out of voting for either party in disgust


So, what you are saying is that if a business supports a representative than that representative will only support the business and not the other constituents he represents? If so, isn't that a problem wit the representative?
Can't make everyone happy
Quoting weatherh98:


im doing the 2 im 2 free 2 back 1 free 1 back 50 free

sincerley,
another sprinter


you spelled sincerely incorrectly.
Quoting CJ5:


So, what you are saying is that if a business supports a representative than that representative will only support the business and not the other constituents he represents? If so, isn't that a problem wit the representative?


a business can supprot a representative, the representative need not support the business, though if the business supports him they probably agree in their beliefs.

but lets end this disucssion
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you spelled sincerely incorrectly.


IDC
So I see nothing interesting happened on the blog yesterday.Same old same old debate.Ncstorm what they did to you yesterday was terrible.The blog needs a storm to track in the Atlantic.I know their are ones over in the pacific but ones in the Atlantic seem to catch almost everyone's attention.
Quoting weatherh98:


IDC


are u traveling to state or are you staying at your house?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


are u traveling to state or are you staying at your house?


Its in New orleans so i can stay at home
Quoting washingtonian115:
So I see nothing interesting happened on the blog yesterday.Same old same old debate.Ncstorm what they did to you yesterday was terrible.The blog needs a storm to track in the Atlantic.I know their are ones over in the pacific but ones in the Atlantic seem to catch almost everyone's attention.


what happened to NCStorm?
I didnt see anything
Quick update from the Houston area...

Rain has been coming down in buckets since early this morning (like 2-3am early). As of about 7am in Tomball, some roads were starting to close due to street flooding, after 3+ inches in ~4 hours, and rain still falling at rates estimated at 1" per hour.

The north and west sides of town have been hit the hardest with this rain, and as per NWS advisories, stream flooding is expected. Cypress Creek is already over its banks (it floods easily), and several other streams are likely to follow.

I'm at work now (just south of Jersey Village... which is also in the flood warning area), so lets see if I can get home this evening.

Harris County Rainfall Totals

NWS Houston Forecast Area Page
Quoting jeffs713:
Quick update from the Houston area...

Rain has been coming down in buckets since early this morning (like 2-3am early). As of about 7am in Tomball, some roads were starting to close due to street flooding, after 3+ inches in ~4 hours, and rain still falling at rates estimated at 1" per hour.

The north and west sides of town have been hit the hardest with this rain, and as per NWS advisories, stream flooding is expected. Cypress Creek is already over its banks (it floods easily), and several other streams are likely to follow.

I'm at work now (just south of Jersey Village... which is also in the flood warning area), so lets see if I can get home this evening.

Harris County Rainfall Totals

NWS Houston Forecast Area Page



good thing i didnt move to houston last year
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


what happened to NCStorm?
I didnt see anything
me either...
See Yall later this afternoon.
I don't want to discuss it on the main blog.Or else I'll get heat for it.But still it was sad to see.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to discuss it on the main blog.Or else I'll get heat for it.But still it was sad to see.


just show me the page num
Quoting Grothar:
Reading back on the blog this morning, most of you mentioned some very important features. That little low currently off the SW coast of Florida should be watched carefully. While none of the models develop yet, it could begin responding to a little weakness to its NW and begin combining with the moisture currently about to move over Florida. There could be development in the Gulf. Wind shear is pretty low. The SE US from Louisian to the Florida panhandle should expect some heavy showers this weekend.



98E is very large and has a tremendous amount of energy in its center. There is no reason it should not be at least a Cat2 in a few days. Extremely cold cloud tops.



I am still expecting to see some development in the Atlantic, although none of the models have anything yet.


Yeah there is. Moderate vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs after 72 hours out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to discuss it on the main blog.Or else I'll get heat for it.But still it was sad to see.


i saw a GW debate and a Religion debate.

and nothing happened to NCstorm.
He came out of both just fine if i remember.
there were no hard feelings
1418. CJ5
Quoting Neapolitan:
Well, this is certainly not the forum to get into such things. But, no, while corporations should have the right to support issues and candidates of their choosing, they absolutely should not have the right to anonymously dump millions into campaigns, thereby unduly influencing the outcome of elections and corrupting democracy. Period. Regardless of what some keep insisting, corporations are not people.

You know, there's a reason even some once-supportive justices have reversed their stance on Citizens United.


I agree. This is off-topic. So, prior to Citizens United, media and unions were allowed to support candidates and positions but corporations were not. CU leveled the playing field. I submit that corporations are people just as much as unions are people. The first amendment does not mean free speech is limited to only individuals but includes groups of people, the media, unions and now corporations.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah there is. Moderate vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs after 72 hours out.


I thinkim being messed with...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Well last night was interesting, had 30 mins of continuous cloud to ground lightning, and i mean continuous - no breaks, always lightning somewhere.
Lots of close CG lightning sounded like artillery cause they were 'exploding' close to my house.
And a tstorm to my SE in Atlanta had 5.67 in/hr rainfall rates.

Fun to say the least, but im sure someone's house or tree got struck by lightning
Some of the local creeks had some flash flooding last night. A few yards, low lying areas, a road, and a park ended up underwater during the early morning. Not too shabby. They served their purpose and no homes were flooded. A few trees down though.

It looks like mid GA got in on the action! Finally. But too bad that front is set up the way it is. Tennessee doesn't need that much rain. :\
1421. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
So I see nothing interesting happened on the blog yesterday.Same old same old debate.Ncstorm what they did to you yesterday was terrible..


Yep its the same old, same old !!!If you don't accept their lecture then you are mistreated
whoa, whats with the djia?

oh a weather note, the FL blob is going nowhere, despite the NAM and the WRF
Grothar I think their is a chance as well.If history teaches you anything once you have a favorable upper level atmosphere and a disturbance in the gulf watch for quick development right under your nose.It could happen so watch out.Remember Claudette from 09.
What a beautiful day in Houston! Flooding everywhere and no relief in sight!

Quoting washingtonian115:
Grothar I think their is a chance as well.If history teaches you anything once you have a favorable upper level atmosphere and a disturbance in the gulf watch for quick development right under your nose.It could happen so watch out.Remember Claudette from 09.


read my lips

NO NEW DEVELOPMENT.

i suppose that would mean eventually it will happen but lets not go there..
Quoting greentortuloni:


You might have a valid point about the rain in 1603. However extrapolating from that point to blaming global warming on new record keeping capabilities (i.e. ignoring all the other evidence) is stupid.

Just sayin.


Never said anything about new record keeping. I'm saying that everything is now documented. Every tornado, every flooding event, every severe thunderstorm, etc. These events are now as they say "becoming more frequent" because of this new age of technology. Almost everyone now has the capability to take pictures or video of all that is happening both in weather and life. An EF - 3 tornado that may have torn across the middle of Kansas on May 12, 1932 went uncounted - why, because no one saw it, and it didn't effect anyone. Kind of going back to if a tree falls in a forest belief.
1427. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah there is. Moderate vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs after 72 hours out.


Well, it is already Tropical Storm Fabio,or didn't you notice?



Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


read my lips

NO NEW DEVELOPMENT.

i suppose that would mean eventually it will happen but lets not go there..
I didn't say it'll be our next cat 5.All I'm saying is that if history teaches you anything once you have a favorable atmosphere in the Gulf with a disturbance it should be watched.Besides sst in some places in the gulf are like upper 80's to 90 degrees.
Westwood neighborhood at 1488 near 2978


Flooded street in Cypress, Tx


Downtown Houston




Waller, TX







cone of doom
1431. Grothar
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didn't say it'll be our next cat 5.All I'm saying is that if history teaches you anything once you have a favorable atmosphere in the Gulf with a disturbance it should be watched.Besides sst in some places in the gulf are like upper 80's to 90 degrees.


it wont be an invest
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


start us off
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


you sound like TWC with all the hype :P
Deleted
Quoting Chucktown:


Never said anything about new record keeping. I'm saying that everything is now documented. Every tornado, every flooding event, every severe thunderstorm, etc. These events are now as they say "becoming more frequent" because of this new age of technology. Almost everyone now has the capability to take pictures or video of all that is happening both in weather and life. An EF - 3 tornado that may have torn across the middle of Kansas on May 12, 1932 went uncounted - why, because no one saw it, and it didn't effect anyone. Kind of going back to if a tree falls in a forest belief.
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing (chart below). That can, of course, only be laid at the feet of climate change--unless it's somehow your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report more earthquakes and volcanoes.

Huh?
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.

You should see a previous page. I posted an update stating 06E is now Fabio. (just briefly)
Quoting weatherh98:


I thinkim being messed with...

Huh?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing. That can only be laid at the feet of climate change. Or is it your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report on more earthquakes?

Huh?

One can detect an earthqwuake from the other side of the world on a siesmograph.

how ever, a flood in the tiaga may have kille 2-3 people and nobody would have ever known. now as humans expand and we could see such events on sateellite, we can see them.


The more you build, the more it will flood, simple fact








1441. pcola57
Quoting Grothar:
Come on folks, we have TS Fabio and nobody is posting anything? Get with it.


I checked NHC and saw 'nuttin.. yet anyway.. :)



Tropical Depression SIX-E Public Advisory
Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive


000
WTPZ31 KNHC 120847
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 106.4W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1100 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Huh?


instagram... youre the only c fields i know..

except for that cotton fields kid but he was 7 and from texas
1443. Grothar
Quoting weatherh98:


you sound like TWC with all the hype :P


Hey, the blog was slow. I had to get you guys going. There's usually 20 posts when a new storm forms.
lol, i just remembered you can use hurricane.gov, forever ive been typnig www.nhc.noaa.gov being sure to put the www.

wonder if the spc has one besides spc.noaa.gov
Quoting CJ5:


I agree. This is off-topic. So, prior to Citizens United, media and unions were allowed to support candidates and positions but corporations were not. CU leveled the playing field. I submit that corporations are people just as much as unions are people. The first amendment does not mean free speech is limited to only individuals but includes groups of people, the media, unions and now corporations.


no. prior to CU, unions and corporations were both allowed to support candidates and positions. just to a limited degree. they both could support positions all they wanted, and endorse candidates if they wished, but monetarily the organizations were limited in their expenditures towards specific candidates' campaigns. CU effectively removed those limits. now unions and corporations can pour as much money as they want into the political system. suffice it to say, corporations tend to have much more money lying around than unions do, as the expenditures in this cycle are showing.

CU did not 'level the playing field' making it 'fair' for corporations. it was already fair. CU basically took an already-level playing field and then eliminated all the rules and fired the refs.

most of the pro-CU people are merely rationalizing breaking the system because now it's broken in their favor.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, the blog was slow. I had to get you guys going. There's usually 20 posts when a new storm forms.
well... its all the nhc stuff but you kick started the blog
Quoting weatherh98:


instagram... youre the only c fields i know..

except for that cotton fields kid but he was 7 and from texas

Lol, what do you want me to do about it?
Quoting pcola57:


I checked NHC and saw 'nuttin.. yet anyway.. :)>


its not on nhc yet, but its there
1449. Grothar
Quoting Bobbyweather:

You should see a previous page. I posted an update stating 06E is now Fabio. (just briefly)


Hey,Bobby. When you get news like that. Make a big headline. All the other sites didn't even have it. You can really get the blog going. Good work.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What do you want me to do about it lol.


kill the phony accounts.
More pics coming in









Quoting weatherh98:


kill the phony accounts.

I already told you, I told have an instagram account. I don't use instagram.
from the NHC, the AOI(not a real AOI) will die:

TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY CROSSING THE CENTRAL GULF FRI
THROUGH LATE SUN THEN WEAKEN LOSING IDENTITY AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE SW GULF ON MON.
1454. Grothar
Quoting RitaEvac:
More pics coming in











this happens everytime it rains heavy like this?

and iWas so close to making the mistake of living there
Rather have rain and flood waters that keep things alive and green
Deleted
Breaking News!
Emilia's ADT is above 6 again!
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:00 N Lon : 121:02:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.6mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I already told you, I told have an instagram account. I don't use instagram.


dude... who else could be cjfields799?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


this happens everytime it rains heavy like this?

and iWas so close to making the mistake of living there


No, just when half a foot of rain comes down in a few hrs
Quoting weatherh98:


dude... who else could be cjfields799?


i know a c fields, but i doubt its him
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Breaking News!
Emilia's ADT is above 6 again!
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUL 2012 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 15:00:00 N Lon : 121:02:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.6mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1



nhc wont Care..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Great theory. Of course, the fatal flaw in it is that only climate-related disasters appear to be on the upswing (chart below). That can, of course, only be laid at the feet of climate change--unless it's somehow your contention that "this new age of technology" is only allowing us to report more floods and heat waves and the like, while somehow allowing us to not report more earthquakes and volcanoes.


that and the fact that flooding in japan is not something we'd only see records of now. japan has been continuously occupied by record-keeping people for quite a long time.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where are you getting all of these pictures from? These areas are too far apart for you to taking them yourself.


ABC 13 news
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i know a c fields, but i doubt its him


I live in louisiana...
Quoting weatherh98:


I live in louisiana...


so
1467. wxmod
Huge fire in Russia, right, is peppering the Arctic ice cap, left, with black soot. MODIS satellite polar view.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so


HOW WOULD I KNOW HIM
Quoting weatherh98:


dude... who else could be cjfields799?

Idk...maybe 1 of the other 100,000+ Cody's in this world.
Quoting RitaEvac:


No, just when half a foot of rain comes down in a few hrs

Or if you live on Fondren at 59, and there is a threat of rain. ;)

Houston is terribly flat, and while it drains decently, we've had a good amount of rain the last few days. Add in training storms, and you have a recipe for flooding. The gauge near my house is already crossing 5"... since midnight.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Nature loving this water in SE TX


Water doing what it's supposed to do in subdivisions, notice the big houses high and dry, and detention ponds hold all the water


High water in Magnolia, TX


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Idk...maybe 1 of the other 100,000+ Cody's in this world.


yea

googled this...

There are 48 people in the US/Canada named Cody Fields
1474. Grothar
Interesting development. The NHC has this as a depression and other sites have it as TS Fabio. A little scrambling probably going on as we speak.

1475. yoboi
Quoting schwankmoe:


no. prior to CU, unions and corporations were both allowed to support candidates and positions. just to a limited degree. they both could support positions all they wanted, and endorse candidates if they wished, but monetarily the organizations were limited in their expenditures towards specific candidates' campaigns. CU effectively removed those limits. now unions and corporations can pour as much money as they want into the political system. suffice it to say, corporations tend to have much more money lying around than unions do, as the expenditures in this cycle are showing.

CU did not 'level the playing field' making it 'fair' for corporations. it was already fair. CU basically took an already-level playing field and then eliminated all the rules and fired the refs.

most of the pro-CU people are merely rationalizing breaking the system because now it's broken in their favor.


your jokin right????
1476. wxmod
Fires in Russia are coating the Arctic ice with soot, causing it to melt even faster than it's already disastrous pace. MODIS satellite photo.

will it be at all fabulous? or just a little gaseous?
1478. 7544
morning all looks like we have a train of waves all est of fla and with the high in place they only have one way to go <-------- but the ? is could the favorite one by the bahmas become more than a wave wait watch and see
Eastern Pacific Loop

Nice view of Fabio and friends... Good Morning All....
Quoting yoboi:


your jokin right????


no, i'm not. prior to CU rules applied to individuals and businesses limiting donations. then, unions, individuals and corporations were allowed to endorse candidates and even help organize things for them, but monetary donations were limited to set amounts. media were allowed to endorse candidates then as they are now.

after CU, however, the limits to donating were effectively removed. while technically unions have the ability to donate just as much to their preferred candidates and PACs as the corporate world does, we all know that the amount of cash the corporate world has on hand for this sort of thing dwarfs anything unions could scrape up. it's become completely lopsided.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Where are you getting all of these pictures from? These areas are too far apart for you to taking them yourself.


I'm happy for you guys! It seems lately like there is no medium anymore. It's always either too little rain or too much rain.