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Extreme Drought to Extreme Flood: Weather Whiplash Hits the Midwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:42 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

It seems like just a few months ago barges were scraping bottom on the Mississippi River, and the Army Corps of Engineers was blowing up rocks on the bottom of the river to allow shipping to continue. Wait, it was just a few months ago--less than four months ago! Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on January 1 of 2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940 (after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.) But according to National Weather Service, the exceptional April rains and snows over the Upper Mississippi River watershed will drive the river by Tuesday to a height 45 feet higher than on January 1. The latest forecast calls for the river to hit 39.4' on Tuesday, which would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis, where flood records date back to 1861. Damaging major flooding is expected along a 250-mile stretch of the Mississippi from Quincy, Illinois to Thebes, Illinois next week. At the Alton, Illinois gauge, upstream from St.Louis, a flood height of 34' is expected on Tuesday. This would be the 6th highest flood in Alton since 1844, and damages to commercial property in the town of Alton occur at this water level. In addition, record flooding is expected on at least five rivers in Illinois and Michigan over the next few days. A crest 1.5' above the all-time record has already occurred on the Des Plaines River in Chicago. This river has invasive Asian Carp that could make their way into Lake Michigan if a 13-mile barrier along the river fails during an extreme flood. Fortunately, NPR in Michigan is reporting today that U.S. Army Corps of Engineers crews stationed along the 13-mile Asian carp barrier have seen no evidence of the fish breaching the structure, and it would have taken a flood much larger than today's record flood to breach the structure. A crest on the Grand River in Grand Rapids, Michigan nearly 4' above the previous record (period of record: at least 113 years) is expected this weekend. At this flood level, major flooding of residential areas is expected, though the flood wall protecting downtown Grand Rapids will keep the commercial center of the city from flooding.


Figure 1. The rains that fell in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT Thursday, April 18, 2013 over Northern Illinois were the type of rains one would expect see fall only once every 40 years (yellow colors), according to METSTAT, Inc. (http://www.metstat.com.) METSTAT computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 2, published in 2004 (http://dipper.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/.) METSTAT does not supply their precipitation recurrence interval forecasts or premium analysis products for free, but anyone can monitor the real-time analysis (observed) at: http://metstat.com/solutions/extreme-precipitation-index-analysis/

Damages from the April 2013 Midwest U.S. flood in Illinois, Michigan, and Missouri are likely to run into the hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of the impacts at the flood levels predicted include:

St. Louis, MO:
Major flooding begins. At this level the Choteau Island Levee, protecting 2400 acres, is overtopped. Also, Lemay Park just south of Lemay Ferry Road will begin flood

Cape Girardeau, MO:
Many homes in the Cape Girardeau area are affected and evacuations may be required. Over 100,000 acres is flooded. Numerous roads are closed.

Hannibal, MO:
The Sny Island and South Quincy levees are overtopped between River Mile 315.4 and 264.3, flooding 110,000 acres. The South River levee is overtopped between River Mile 320.5 and 312.1, flooding 10,000 acres.

Quincy, IL:
Missouri Highway 168 east of Palmyra near the BASF plant closes; Quincy Waterworks inundated.

Note that sandbagging efforts may be able to prevent some of these flooding impacts from occurring. Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt discusses the latest rainfall and flooding records from this week's epic storm in his latest post. He plans on an update Friday afternoon.


Figure 2. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis are predicted to crest at 39.5', near major flood stage, on Tuesday. This would be the 8th greatest flood in history at St. Louis. Records at the St. Louis gauge to back to 1861. Image credit: National Weather Service.


Figure 3. Water levels on the Mississippi River at St. Louis bottomed out at -4.57' on 01/01/2013, the 9th lowest water level since record keeping began in 1861, and just 1.6' above the all-time low-water record set in 1940, after the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Flood-Drought-Flood Weather Whiplash
Residents along the Mississippi River have experienced a severe case of flood-drought-flood weather whiplash over the past two years. The Mississippi reached its highest level on record at New Madrid, Missouri on May 6, 2011, when the river crested at 48.35'. Flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers that year cost an estimated $5 billion. The next year, after the great drought of 2012, the river had fallen by over 53' to an all time record low of -5.32' on August 30, 2012. Damage from the great drought is conservatively estimated at $35 billion. Next Tuesday, the river is expected to be at flood stage again in New Madrid, 40' higher than the August 2012 record low. Now, that is some serious weather whiplash. I'm often asked about the seemingly contradictory predictions from climate models that the world will see both worse floods and worse droughts due to global warming. Well, we have seen a classic example in the Midwest U.S. over the past two years of just how this kind of weather whiplash is possible. A warmer atmosphere is capable of bringing heavier downpours, since warmer air can hold more water vapor. We saw an example of this on Thursday morning, when an upper air balloon sounding over Lincoln, Illinois revealed near-record amounts of moisture for this time of year. The precipitable water--how much rain could fall if one condensed all the water vapor in a column above the ground into rain--was 1.62", just barely short of the Illinois April record for precipitable water of 1.64" set on April 20, 2000 (upper air records go back to 1948.) Thursday's powerful low pressure system was able to lift that copious moisture, cool it, and condense it into record rains. So how can you have worse droughts with more moisture in the air? Well, you still need a low pressure system to come along and wring that moisture out of the air to get rain. When natural fluctuations in jet stream patterns take storms away from a region, creating a drought, the extra water vapor in the air won't do you any good. There will be no mechanism to lift the moisture, condense it, and generate drought-busting rains. The drought that ensues will be more intense, since temperatures will be hotter and the soil will dry out more.

The new normal in the coming decades is going to be more and more extreme flood-drought-flood cycles like we are seeing now in the Midwest, and this sort of weather whiplash is going to be an increasingly severe pain in the neck for society. We'd better prepare for it, by building a more flood-resistant infrastructure and developing more drought-resistant grains, for example. And if we continue to allow heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide continue to build up in the atmosphere at the current near-record pace, no amount of adaptation can prevent increasingly more violent cases of weather whiplash from being a serious threat to the global economy and the well-being of billions of people.


Video 1. One person was hospitalized after a sinkhole swallowed three cars in the South Deering neighborhood on the Southeast Side of Chicago on Thursday, April 18, 2013. Witnesses said the hole opened up around 5 a.m. at 9600 South Houston Avenue, quickly growing from about 20 feet to about 40 feet. First two cars slid in, then a third as the hole widened, witnesses said. A fourth vehicle was towed from the edge as it was about to fall inside. The sinkhole was due to heavy flooding that broke a water main built in 1915.

Related Science
A 2010 study by Duke University scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the Bermuda High that in recent decades has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the Southeast United States. Thus, the Southeast U.S. may see greater than its share of "Weather Whiplash"--extreme droughts followed by extreme floods--in coming decades. Joe Romm at climateporgress.org has a post discussing the paper, with links to examples of how the Southeast U.S. has seen both extreme droughts and extreme floods since 2005.


Jeff Masters
Underpass flooding
Underpass flooding
Belmont St. at the Metra train station.

Flood Climate Change Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
It wasn't in a big hurry, took three seconds or so to make it to ground. That' about 20 FPS.



Yeah that definitely sounds like ball lightning, it travels more like a flying object rather than an electrical arc. That is much because it isn't actually an electrical arc, which is what makes it so odd. It is definitely a strange phenomenon.
In case anybody is wondering 'why 1993', I chose it because a.) this year is the first year since 1993 in which no high risk was issued before May 1 (yes, I've been to the future!), b.) 2013 is the first year since 1993 in which less than 100 tornadoes touched down during the month of April, and c.) 1993 was also a neutral year (warm-biased) with a negative AO for much of the Spring.

Judging by this, tornado activity should pick up...sometime. No doubt.

Probably.

Hopefully.

I don't know.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
In case anybody is wondering 'why 1993', I chose it because a.) this year is the first year since 1993 in which no high risk was issued before May 1 (yes, I've been to the future!), b.) 2013 is the first year since 1993 in which less than 100 tornadoes touched down during the month of April, and c.) 1993 was also a neutral year (warm-biased) with a negative AO for much of the Spring.

Judging by this, tornado activity should pick up...sometime. No doubt.

Probably.

Hopefully.

I don't know.



That was a below average season with 8/4/1.

Analyst that's a good graph. How about a graph with 2003 in it? May 2003 was an active month.
Miami NWS Disco

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TODAY...IT APPEARS THAT
CONVECTION COLLAPSED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND 14Z. THIS
HELPED PUSH A BOUNDARY WELL INLAND AND HELPED STABILIZE THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. SO ALL STORMS THAT FORMED TODAY FORMED WELL
INLAND AND ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND WITH THE SLOW STORM
MOTION...THE STORMS NEVER MADE IT BACK TO THE COAST. CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR ARE PUSHING INTO THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES...AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE REDEVELOPING OVER HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING. SO HAVE
HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE SOUTHERN THIRD/HALF OF THE AREA
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

AN ACTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
90 KT SUBTROPICAL JET NOSES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON.
LAPSE RATES FROM THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WITH THE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-11 TO
-12C)...THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND THE SUBTROPICAL
JET PUSHING IN...THERE COULD BE STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW ONCE AGAIN...SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...WITH ANY STORM
CAPABLE OF DROPPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME.
Quoting LargoFl:
I give up jedkins..all that booming etc..and it moves northeast away from me lol..not a drop here.


It's April, the rain will find someway to miss Pinellas. The shield is up.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That was a below average season with 8/4/1.


Wind shear was a problem across the Atlantic during 1993.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Analyst that's a good graph. How about a graph with 2003 in it? May 2003 was an active month.


I asked and analyst provided. You're good at those :)
Hopefully the area of storms off the coast can over
come the Tampa Shield and give us some rain...
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I asked and analyst provided. You're good at those :)

I've been wanting to graph a lot recently, don't know why.



1011. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been wanting to graph a lot recently, don't know why.





That means you're going to be a programmer. The desire to plot data is what got me started.
1012. Grothar
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I've never seen ball lightning either. I have seen St. Elmo's Fire several times.


The one with Demi Moore?
Quoting Grothar:


The one with Demi Moore?



No on my sailboat. Oh wait, has she been there? ;)
On the Jacksonville, FL radar there is a line of storms moving east and one moving west in the Atlantic side.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been wanting to graph a lot recently, don't know why.





I hate graphing anything, its my least enjoyed aspect of mathematics.
The wind shear is starting to relax in East Pacific, the hurricane season is coming fellas!!!!!!

While the official start of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is still over a month away, the eastern north Pacific season begins on May 15. That may seem like the distant future, but if we take the climatological period for the emergence of the first tropical wave of the season from the coast of Africa, which happens to be the first week of May, and assume that it eventually becomes a tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific, it's only about two weeks away until we see the seedling for the first named storm in that basin. It typically takes two weeks (based on my personal analysis from doing Tropical Cyclone Reports over the years) for a tropical wave to enter the eastern Pacific from Africa. Meaning, about four weeks until we start storm tracking again. But again, this is based on the presumption that the first wave emerges at that specific timeframe and proceeds to develop into Alvin in the eastern north Pacific basin two weeks later. That can't be predicted with reasonable accuracy, but it's happened before.

tl;dr: Hurricane season will soon be upon us.
Is anyone else as dumbfounded as me why all of the sudden everything that approaches Tampa Bay fall apart now?

I mean it just doesn't make sense, there is a large amount of moisture over the region, and a decent upper disturbance swinging across...

Quoting Jedkins01:
Is anyone else as dumbfounded as me why all of the sudden everything that approaches Tampa Bay fall apart now?

I mean it just doesn't make sense, there is a large amount of moisture over the region, and a decent upper disturbance swinging across...
HAARP.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I hate graphing anything, its my least enjoyed aspect of mathematics.

I go to an Early College High School, which is just an very advanced high school. In sophomore year, which I'm currently in, we start taking actual college classes. I was enrolled in a College Statistics class (withdrew a few weeks ago) where we had to graph a lot.

Was not enjoyable. Nearly screwed up my GPA too because I was failing horribly, lol.

Other than that, college actually hasn't been too bad.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Is anyone else as dumbfounded as me why all of the sudden everything that approaches Tampa Bay fall apart now?

I mean it just doesn't make sense, there is a large amount of moisture over the region, and a decent upper disturbance swinging across...
It does seem to be fizzling as it approaches. I see this all the time here, it looks like steam fading away as it moves farther from a boiling pot. Then when storms build in that same air as it moves away from here, it's just maddening.
Quoting KoritheMan:

HAARP.


No it's Harpo...honk honk....


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to an Early College High School, which is just an very advanced high school. In sophomore year, which I'm currently in, we start taking actual college classes. I was enrolled in a College Statistics class (withdrew a few weeks ago) where we had to graph a lot.

Was not enjoyable. Nearly screwed up my GPA too because I was failing horribly, lol.

Other than that, college actually hasn't been too bad.
You're a lot smarter than the average person your age. I won't comment on your maturity, however. ;)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Is anyone else as dumbfounded as me why all of the sudden everything that approaches Tampa Bay fall apart now?

I mean it just doesn't make sense, there is a large amount of moisture over the region, and a decent upper disturbance swinging across...


Jedkins check out the sea water temp map VR46L posted in comment 957, which may show an explanation.
Quoting KoritheMan:

You're a lot smarter than the average person your age. I won't comment on your maturity, however. ;)

Hey, look who's talking.

And you're supposed to be the adult here! Ha.
1030. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to an Early College High School, which is just an very advanced high school. In sophomore year, which I'm currently in, we start taking actual college classes. I was enrolled in a College Statistics class (withdrew a few weeks ago) where we had to graph a lot.

Was not enjoyable. Nearly screwed up my GPA too because I was failing horribly, lol.

Other than that, college actually hasn't been too bad.


Keep true to yourself ...I had an opprotunity like that and messed it up ...keep strong and approach the influence of others with caution. I'm old ...heed my advice! lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hey, look who's talking.

And you're supposed to be the adult here! Ha.


Awww shucks Kori. We know Analyst has more maturity than a mayfly. Even he would agree!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to an Early College High School, which is just an very advanced high school. In sophomore year, which I'm currently in, we start taking actual college classes. I was enrolled in a College Statistics class (withdrew a few weeks ago) where we had to graph a lot.

Was not enjoyable. Nearly screwed up my GPA too because I was failing horribly, lol.

Other than that, college actually hasn't been too bad.

Since an AP course is college level, I'll be taking an AP statistics class during my senior year. What you said gives me something to look forward to, lol.

My HS isn't like that, nor are there really any schools like that in my area.

Also, I like graphing too.
Quoting sunlinepr:


It will be interesting to see how the TUTT sets up during the hurricane season.
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
214 PM HST SUN APR 21 2013

HIZ005>011-220200-
OAHU SOUTH SHORE-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-
OLOMANA-CENTRAL OAHU-WAIANAE MOUNTAINS-
214 PM HST SUN APR 21 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY...ARE MOVING OVER OAHU FROM
THE SOUTH. INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON.

$$
WROE

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will be interesting to see how the TUTT sets up during the hurricane season.
It should be noted that the TUTT is a semipermanent feature, meaning there is always wind shear across that portion of the Atlantic, its influence is just less in some years compared to others.
Stupid Tampa Shield is killing off all the storms in the Gulf yet again!!! UGHHHH
1041. ncstorm
18z GFS..



1043. Gearsts
1044. Gearsts
Totally not from wiki ;)The TUTT is elongated from east-northeast to west-southwest across oceans of the Northern Hemisphere, and west-northwest to east-southeast across oceans of the Southern Hemisphere. In the South Pacific, it stretches from near the equator at the 175th meridian west to the east-southeast near 30N 105W, offshore the western South American coast. In the South Atlantic, the TUTT extends from near the equator at the 75th meridian west east-southeast to 30N 15W, offshore the western coast of southern Africa. In the North Atlantic, the TUTT is oriented from 35N 30W (south of the Azores) to 22N 95W (the southern Gulf of Mexico). In the North Pacific, it stretches from 35N 145W (offshore western North America) to 22N 135E, offshore the northeast coast of the Philippines.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


It will be interesting to see how the TUTT sets up during the hurricane season.


Let's see how African, CV season climatology behaves this year...
1047. nymore
Minnesota smashes all time record low for April 20 and the second half of April.

Embarrass reported a low of 14 degrees below zero Saturday. According to Minnesota’s State Climatology Office, that’s the lowest temperature ever reported in the state for April 20; the previous record was zero, at Cloquet in 1928.
And beyond that, the climatology office reported that Embarrass’ low temperature was the lowest temperature ever reported in the state in the second half of April


1048. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I go to an Early College High School, which is just an very advanced high school. In sophomore year, which I'm currently in, we start taking actual college classes. I was enrolled in a College Statistics class (withdrew a few weeks ago) where we had to graph a lot.

Was not enjoyable. Nearly screwed up my GPA too because I was failing horribly, lol.

Other than that, college actually hasn't been too bad.
Quoting txjac:


Keep true to yourself ...I had an opprotunity like that and messed it up ...keep strong and approach the influence of others with caution. I'm old ...heed my advice! lol


txjac, is right. Don't push too hard. You may not believe it, but these are the best years of your life. Enjoy them while you can. I started college at 16 and missed out on a lot of things. Maybe that is why I get a little silly on the blog sometimes. Ah, I wish I were at least 92 again.
1050. nymore
Record lows for some larger cities in the region. Courtesy of the winter that won't end

International Falls 4 degrees previous record was 18 degrees set in 1966

Duluth 11 degrees previous record was 14 degrees set in 1928

St. Cloud 16 degrees previous record was 20 degrees set in 1897

Sioux Falls 16 degrees previous record was 18 degrees set in 1907

Grand Forks 18 degrees ties previous record was 18 degrees set in 1930

Twin Cities 21 degrees previous record was 26 degrees set in 1888

La Crosse 22 degrees previous record was 23 degrees set in 1897
1051. Gearsts
1052. Grothar
Still a chance for heavy rain.


Quoting Grothar:
Still a chance for heavy rain.

Hey Gro, when do you think you will issue your first Blob alert? Just take a guess :p
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Stupid Tampa Shield is killing off all the storms in the Gulf yet again!!! UGHHHH


It is ridiculous. If you were to watch a radar/satellite animation for the last 8 hours it would seem impossible that we're still dry. But here we are, dry, but surrounded by rain all day long.
Nymore do you have a link for that? I looked at the official sites near Embarrass, MN and saw nothing lower than -8 F on April 20. Still very cold.
WOW!! BIG TIME WARM UP FOR THE USA!!!!
I found it nymore. You were right.
1059. nymore
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Nymore do you have a link for that? I looked at the official sites near Embarrass, MN and saw nothing lower than -8 F on April 20. Still very cold.
Sure here State Climatology officeLink

Here is another from the NWS. On the page I bet every one is a record but they only point out the ones with NWS offices, I'Falls and Duluth Link

The second link is just for the Duluth area in the whole state many many more were set.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


What do the red circles on that Lightning map mean?
Quoting PedleyCA:


What do the red circles on that Lightning map mean?
locations of detection equipment
i guess
1062. pottery
Quoting Doppler22:

Hey Gro, when do you think you will issue your first Blob alert? Just take a guess :p

Careful !
You might cause him to overheat his few remaining brain cells.......

Quoting pottery:

Careful !
You might cause him to overheat his few remaining brain cells.......
??
Quoting sonofagunn:


It is ridiculous. If you were to watch a radar/satellite animation for the last 8 hours it would seem impossible that we're still dry. But here we are, dry, but surrounded by rain all day long.
Got a 10th of an inch in Bradenton today.
1065. pottery
Quoting Doppler22:

??

It's OK.
He asked for it........
1066. Grothar
Quoting Doppler22:

Hey Gro, when do you think you will issue your first Blob alert? Just take a guess :p


Approximately 19 days.
April 22 is the last day for the public to comment on the Keystone XL Pipeline application.

The email to send your comments to is here.

Or to this email: keystonecomments@state.gov
1068. Grothar
Quoting pottery:

Careful !
You might cause him to overheat his few remaining brain cells.......


First barb of the new season. :)
Grothar really was around in 1066 and all that ;) See his comment number.

1070. Grothar
Quoting sonofagunn:


It is ridiculous. If you were to watch a radar/satellite animation for the last 8 hours it would seem impossible that we're still dry. But here we are, dry, but surrounded by rain all day long.


Same here in FLL. It looks like we should be getting pounded, but not a drop.
1071. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


First barb of the new season. :)

Actually, the first one was on the other blog.

Great to see you Gro.
Keep up.

I'm going to bed.
Quoting sonofagunn:


It is ridiculous. If you were to watch a radar/satellite animation for the last 8 hours it would seem impossible that we're still dry. But here we are, dry, but surrounded by rain all day long.


sonofagunn, I've been in your shoes more times than I care to count here in the Mid-Cape. Heck, the hole-in-the-sky here has been so pernicious some months, I've been tempted to rent it out to people having outdoor parties and weddings!

...But for today, I am rejoicing, as we got soaked this afternoon and I think it's raining lightly outside again as I type this! Good luck getting the shield down/hole gone.... :-(
5,9 Mexico
1074. Grothar
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Grothar really was around in 1066 and all that ;) See his comment number.


Hey, Cromwell didn't even insult me like that.
Cromwell was over 500 years later ;)
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Stupid Tampa Shield is killing off all the storms in the Gulf yet again!!! UGHHHH


Totally agree. If you looked at the enhanced satellite you would think we are getting crushed. Instead, once again we have had virtually nothing.
Every Day is Earth Day

Link
Quoting KoritheMan:

HAARP.


Oh yes what was I thinking!








Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think the key is observations and the best we currently do is with Recon in a storm. Need development of geostationary microwave sensing.
Do you know what resolution microwave soundings operate at? Or where I could find more information on the resolution of current microwave sounders? Putting a microwave sounder on a GOES satellite would greatly improve temporal resolution but would the spatial resolution make it even worth it? I know the next generation of GOES satellites won't even have an infrared sounder. Which is really a waste in my opinion. Fortunately, METEOSAT's third generation satellites will have infrared sounders. First one wont be launched until 2020, however.

Improving the resolution (temporal and spatial) of atmospheric soundings from remote sensing systems (satellites) is huge. I honestly think it's going to be the only way we will significantly improve data assimilation and model forecasts in general. Improving resolution, physics, and assimilation techniques will also help, but as far as observational improvement goes it's really up to the satellites.
Quoting ncstorm:
18z GFS..





too early to say if this storm would hit my location or not..


nicely done WU logo on there!
1082. flsky
Same thing in Ponce Inlet. North side of the Inlet (where I am) always gets less precipitation than the south side.

Quoting clwstmchasr:


Totally agree. If you looked at the enhanced satellite you would think we are getting crushed. Instead, once again we have had virtually nothing.
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 6h
Rapid City averages 40 inches of snow per winter. In just the month of April, they've had 36.8 with more coming tonight.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


too early to say if this storm would hit my location or not..


nicely done WU logo on there!


Its going west.

And what the heck is up with the WU logo?
Quoting SPLbeater:


Its going west.

And what the heck is up with the WU logo?

Tomorrow is Earth Day so the logo changed to a green color(Something TWC does).
Quoting wxchaser97:

Tomorrow is Earth Day so the logo changed to a green color(Something TWC does).


How pathetic.
Quoting SPLbeater:


How pathetic.


you do realize that's between WU and TWC?
Quoting SPLbeater:


How pathetic.



are you sure your not the one thats pathetic
1089. beell
Quoting TomTaylor:
Do you know what resolution microwave soundings operate at? Or where I could find more information on the resolution of current microwave sounders? Putting a microwave sounder on a GOES satellite would greatly improve temporal resolution but would the spatial resolution make it even worth it? I know the next generation of GOES satellites won't even have an infrared sounder. Which is really a waste in my opinion. Fortunately, METEOSAT's third generation satellites will have infrared sounders. First one wont be launched until 2020, however.

Improving the resolution (temporal and spatial) of atmospheric soundings from remote sensing systems (satellites) is huge. I honestly think it's going to be the only way we will significantly improve data assimilation and model forecasts in general. Improving resolution, physics, and assimilation techniques will also help, but as far as observational improvement goes it's really up to the satellites.


Here ya go, Tom. A start anyway.
Geo-microwave Sounder/GeoSTAR
Development and PATH (Precipitation All
Weather Temperature and Humidity
Soundings) Status | March 7th, 2012


The hopes and dreams rest on placing a sounder aboard a geostationary satellite as opposed to the polar MSU/AMSU system in use today. That would resolve the refresh (temporal) problem. AMSU has a resolution of about 50 km for temperature and 15km for vapor compared to 50km/25km for the baseline rendition of GeoSTAR.

At one time, it was thought that the GeoSTAR system would fly with GOES-R. Not sure if this will happen. Last I heard, GOES-R will launch in 2015.

I'm sure nrt can provide a ton more information but he may have dozed off...
:-)
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 23m
Colorado Avalanche kills five on Saturday afternoon. Find out more.
Link


Interesting article about ice cores...

And another one as well:


Link
Finally getting some light rain. Heavier rains off to the south.
Quoting SPLbeater:


How pathetic.
the logo is clickable as a matter of fact i will even post a link within the quote


Every Day is Earth Day

Link
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
542 PM HST SUN APR 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR KAUAI AND NIIHAU FROM 6 AM TODAY THROUGH
6 AM HST TUESDAY...

.DEEP MOISTURE STALLED NEAR KAUAI...COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

HIZ001>004-221645-
/O.CON.PHFO.FF.A.0006.000000T0000Z-130423T1600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NIIHAU-KAUAI WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-KAUAI MOUNTAINS-
542 PM HST SUN APR 21 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

* THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BRING INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING OVER KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

* HEAVY OR PERSISTENT RAINS WILL CAUSE STREAMS TO RISE...EVEN IN
AREAS WHERE RAIN IS NOT OCCURRING. HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE
SLICK ROADWAYS AND REDUCE VISIBILITY...MAKING DRIVING
HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS VERY DANGEROUS. REMEMBER
THAT IT DOES NOT HAVE TO BE RAINING HEAVILY WHERE YOU ARE FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR.

AVOID CAMPING OR HIKING NEAR STREAMS AND LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE IMMEDIATE
ACTION IF FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

$$

WROE
1097. bappit
Quoting beell:


Here ya go, Tom. A start anyway.
Geo-microwave Sounder/GeoSTAR
Development and PATH (Precipitation All
Weather Temperature and Humidity
Soundings) Status | March 7th, 2012


The hopes and dreams rest on placing a sounder aboard a geostationary satellite as opposed to the polar MSU/AMSU system in use today. That would resolve the refresh (temporal) problem. AMSU has a resolution of about 50 km for temperature and 15km for vapor compared to 50km/25km for the baseline rendition of GeoSTAR.

At one time, it was thought that the GeoSTAR system would fly with GOES-R. Not sure if this will happen. Last I heard, GOES-R will launch in 2015.

I'm sure nrt can provide a ton more information but he may have dozed off...
:-)

A bodacious link on the subject. Looks like someone's been thinking about this for quite some time. The powerpoint mentions people have thought about it since the 1980's.

"1980s: NOAA has been interested in Geo - microwave sounder. Large antenna, accommodation on s/c and scanning were considered problems. Dr Fred Moser NWS/Storm Center and Dr. Norm Grody/ORA were active."
1099. bappit
Quoting Jedkins01:
Link


Interesting article about ice cores...

And another one as well:


Link

Yup. An interesting article for sure. Thanks.

Edit: A bit of what it says:

"The researchers zeroed in on the Northern Hemisphere%u2019s temperature outlier, Greenland ice cores, and found that the conversion of oxygen isotope ratio to temperature typically used on the ice cores did not account for the sort of crash climate change occurring during the Younger Dryas. It assumes prevailing winds and jet streams and storm tracks are providing the moisture for Greenland precipitation from the Atlantic Ocean.

"%u201CThe Laurentide ice sheet, which covered much of North America down into the northern United States, is getting smaller as the Younger Dryas approaches,%u201D Carlson says. %u201CThat%u2019s like taking out a mountain of ice three kilometers high. As that melts, it allows more Pacific Ocean moisture to cross the continent and hit the Greenland ice sheet.%u201D

"The two oceans have distinctly different ratios of oxygen isotopes, allowing for a different isotope ratio where the water falls as snow."

Upshot is that the Greenland ice cores have been misinterpreted as being colder than it actually was.
Today is my WU 2nd anniversary and Earth Day, I'm discussing both in a new blog
Quoting beell:


Here ya go, Tom. A start anyway.
Geo-microwave Sounder/GeoSTAR
Development and PATH (Precipitation All
Weather Temperature and Humidity
Soundings) Status | March 7th, 2012


The hopes and dreams rest on placing a sounder aboard a geostationary satellite as opposed to the polar MSU/AMSU system in use today. That would resolve the refresh (temporal) problem. AMSU has a resolution of about 50 km for temperature and 15km for vapor compared to 50km/25km for the baseline rendition of GeoSTAR.

At one time, it was thought that the GeoSTAR system would fly with GOES-R. Not sure if this will happen. Last I heard, GOES-R will launch in 2015.

I'm sure nrt can provide a ton more information but he may have dozed off...
:-)
Thanks beell

As far as I'm aware there are approved plans to include a microwave sounder on any of the upcoming GOES missions (that is through at least 2030). They were considering an infrared sounder for the fourth generation of GOES satellites (GOES R-U) but that idea was abandoned a while ago due to budget constraints. Hopefully something will change and we can get a sounder up there but it's hard to get a bigger budget when our economy sucks. Not to mention satellite missions tend to exceed their budget as it is.
I was hoping for a little more rain, but this could really make a mess of things. Some rainfall totals are over 9" and climbing offshore. If this holds together we will probably have serious flooding in Key West. The EPA doesn't let storm drains dump into the ocean like in the past so...

Edit: Changed image from active radar to rainfall totals:

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I was hoping for a little more rain, but this could really make a mess of things. Some rainfall totals are over 9" and climbing offshore. If this holds together we will probably have serious flooding in Key West. The EPA doesn't let storm drains dump into the ocean like in the past so...



Hey take whatever you can get :)

The Tampa Bay area is finally getting some, heavy showers are developing around there.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Today is my WU 2nd anniversary and Earth Day, I'm discussing both in a new blog


Member Since: April 23, 2011
Your a little bit early, there is medication for that you know. LOL
1105. bappit
Quoting TomTaylor:
Thanks beell

As far as I'm aware there are approved plans to include a microwave sounder on any of the upcoming GOES missions (that is through at least 2030). They were considering an infrared sounder for the fourth generation of GOES satellites (GOES R-U) but that idea was abandoned a while ago due to budget constraints. Hopefully something will change and we can get a sounder up there but it's hard to get a bigger budget when our economy sucks. Not to mention satellite missions tend to exceed their budget as it is.

I would be interested in the source of your information--not that I doubt you. I like to follow up on things. Other people on the blog may want to follow up, too. This type of imagery would be a valuable capability in many ways. Since they've been thinking about how to do it for about thirty years (see Beell's link), it would be good to see it come to fruition.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Member Since: April 23, 2011
Your a little bit early, there is medication for that you know. LOL


hand me some Aussie...

might want to look at this again...April 22



alright..gnite everyone, 3:10 AM here
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hand me some Aussie...

might want to look at this again...April 22



alright..gnite everyone, 3:10 AM here

I think there may be more older guys in here that may have to problem, I don't have any problem arriving to early at the station.

This is what I see...


Sleep well my friend. Congrats on your 2 years here.
With his time in eastern time and yours in Z, that change in date means I can narrow it down to a four window in which you created your account: between 8 pm and midnight EDT. :P

Regarding the system to form off the east coast, all the models are showing a warm core, but it still looks frontal in nature (asymmetric) and only warm core in the lower levels of the troposphere (shallow towards the bottom right on the phase diagram). Because of these factors, I doubt it will have enough of a barotropic presence to be classified as subtropical, even if the more aggressive of the recent model runs were to verify.

00Z CMC Phase-Space Analysis
00Z GFS Phase-Space Analysis
00Z UKMET Phase-Space Analysis
Quoting bappit:

I would be interested in the source of your information--not that I doubt you. I like to follow up on things. Other people on the blog may want to follow up, too. This type of imagery would be a valuable capability in many ways. Since they've been thinking about how to do it for about thirty years (see Beell's link), it would be good to see it come to fruition.
No problem -- GOES-R instruments are pretty well documented so there are lots of places you can read about it. There is no mention of a sounder on the GOES GOES-R mission homepage, NASA GOES-R mission homepage, nor the GOES-R wikipedia page.

Initially, however, there were plans to include a sounder. Originally the fourth generation of GOES satellites (which includes GOES R-U to be launched from 2015 to 2024, see image below) were supposed to include a Hyperspectral Environmental Suite (HES). HES would've been the legacy instrument to the infrared sounder which has been aboard the last 8 GOES satellites (GOES 8-15). HES would've provided a dramatic increase in spatial, spectral and temporal resolution over previous infrared sounders aboard GOES satellites providing for better temperature and moisture profiles of the atmosphere (critical for models). Unfortunately, HES was cut from the GOES-R satellite in September 2006. It's really a shame to see such a product get cut out. You can read more about HES here. Hopefully HES, or some similar instrument, will get strapped on to later GOES satellites in the fourth generation.

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and tomorrow but a big increase in moisture will occur by mid-week when a trough moves nearby.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 AM AST MON APR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TUE.
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SW ATLC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES
MID WEEK BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECT FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUE. MOISTURE SURGES LATE TUE NIGHT AS SRN
STREAM TROF OVR THE SW ATLC AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THIS TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF BEING MORE AMPLIFIED
AND SLOWER INDICATING EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO ANOTHER DEEP
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHILE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH PWAT
VALUES BARELY REACHING THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE WITH LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH H5 TEMPS AOB -10C WHICH IS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. WED LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS COULD EXTEND
INTO THU-FRI IF THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF VERIFIES. SPRING TIME IS
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR CUTOFF LOWS AND LATE APRIL CAN HAVE SOME
PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SO THE ECMWF SOLUTION CAN`T BE
COMPLETELY IGNORED. THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
WEAK WED SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INLAND AND BE VERY SLOW
MOVERS WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE
WEST AND MORE FROM THE NORTH THU-FRI WITH TSTMS BEING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL DUE TO
VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BY SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS CUTOFF
LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING SUBDSIDENCE/WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS SAT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
A VCSH POSSIBLE AT JMZ AFT 22/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP 20KT DIMINISHING TO
15-KT MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL
ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.4 DEGREES F. IN ADDITION...2013
REPRESENTS THE TENTH DRIEST START TO A YEAR AT CHRISTIANSTED
AIRPORT IN SAINT CROIX WITH 4.92 INCHES OBSERVED SO FAR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 10
Good morning. Big high pressure area dominating the Northeast this morning, the barometer is 30.66 at my house, looks like a nice day setting up!
1112. beell
Morning, bappit & Tom,

Proof of concept and sense of humor from the link @ 1089.


click to open in new window
Mornin' all.
Furtunately the heavy rain stayed offshore of the Keys. We ended the night with just over an inch. Probably still had some minor flooding in Key West. Won't know 'till the news at 7:30.
Good Morning!! (or) 57.1F here this morning and clear. Up early for an errand.
Happy Earth Day folks.

I'm holding my breath here to see if the frost we had last night affected my fig and mulberry trees. Last year after three weeks of early spring and then a 27 degree morning, all the figs and mulberries were set back about 6 weeks. Thankfully, we didn't get quite that low last night.
1116. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Morning!! (or) 57.1F here this morning and clear. Up early for an errand.



Good Morning all !!


Ped it must be 3 or 4 am !On a lil early to be so chirpy!!

Oh 55 here ..
2.20" of rain yesterday and last night here on the northside of Orlando with a whopping 5.80" here in Longwood now for the month of April which is amazing as April only averages 2.20".

1118. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..finally got some good rain last night..everything is wet outside...have a great day everyone
Another stormy day on tap.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA
MARKED BY THE AXIS OF AN INVERTED TROF IN THE H100-H85 WIND FIELD.
THE COMBINED PRESENCE OF THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100KT
H30-H30 JET STREAK LIFTING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE ASCENDING
LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A 90KT ZONAL JET STREAK OVER THE WRN GOMEX
RESULTING IN STRONG MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC LIFT OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
INDUCE A NEW SFC LOW OUT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROF.

TRICKY WIND FCST TODAY AS THE SFC LOW DVLPS AND CONSOLIDATES N OF
THE BAHAMAS. HOWEVER...A TIGHT SFC PGRAD OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS
WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TONIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NE
AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG HI PRES RIDGE BLANKETING THE
ERN CONUS. BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
PENINSULA WITH 00Z PWATS BTWN 1.8"-1.9"...WILL NOT NEED MUCH TO
SPARK SCT/NMRS SHRAS.


RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN S OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WHILE THE BACK EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE BAND WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE ERN PENINSULA
THRU THE DAY...PRECIP LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE. STRONG
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -11C AND -13C...
CAPE VALUES BTWN 1500-2000 J/KG...AND S/SERLY WINDS THRU THE
H100-H85 LYR BCMG SW THRU THE H85-H70 LYR
Quoting VR46L:



Good Morning all !!


Ped it must be 3 or 4 am !On a lil early to be so chirpy!!

Oh 55 here ..


Yes, 4:30 (PST)
1121. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...SMALL
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS.
1122. LargoFl
remember yrs ago we were writing about the records for rainfall from a cyclone in the atlantic. citing one book from herbert i read back in the 70s said number 1 was the leftovers of the 1935 flagler railrd cat 5 that drenched w.cen.florida . many on this blog said i was wrong citing wikipedia. well wiki is not fact jack! this was pointed out just the other day from a professor friend of ours. need other sources for this character to believe otherwise.
Quoting islander101010:
remember yrs ago we were writing about the records for rainfall from a cyclone in the atlantic. citing one book from herbert i read back in the 70s said number 1 was the leftoves of the flagler railrd cat 5 that drenched w.cen.florida . many on this blog said i was wrong citing wikipedia. well wiki is not fact jack! need other sources for this character to believe.


Some on here think they know everything.
Very heavy rains in Jacksonville this morning. Radar est. of 2" to 4" already across the westside of the city.

Good Morning everyone over the other side of the Pacific.
John Seach @johnseach
#Soputan volcano, #Sulawesi, Indonesia raised to level 3 alert (out of maximum 4).

John Seach @johnseach 24m
Five earthquakes 89 km south of #Semisopochnoi volcano, Alaska.

John Seach @johnseach
Pilot report of ash emission from #Antuco volcano, #Chile, not confirmed by visual observations under clear skies.
John Seach ‏@johnseach
2 volcanoes in #Chile on raised alert level.
#Lascar and Laguna del Maule.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Do you know what resolution microwave soundings operate at? Or where I could find more information on the resolution of current microwave sounders? Putting a microwave sounder on a GOES satellite would greatly improve temporal resolution but would the spatial resolution make it even worth it? I know the next generation of GOES satellites won't even have an infrared sounder. Which is really a waste in my opinion. Fortunately, METEOSAT's third generation satellites will have infrared sounders. First one wont be launched until 2020, however.

Improving the resolution (temporal and spatial) of atmospheric soundings from remote sensing systems (satellites) is huge. I honestly think it's going to be the only way we will significantly improve data assimilation and model forecasts in general. Improving resolution, physics, and assimilation techniques will also help, but as far as observational improvement goes it's really up to the satellites.


Best source may be NRL Monterey Satellite Training.
Quoting beell:


Here ya go, Tom. A start anyway.
Geo-microwave Sounder/GeoSTAR
Development and PATH (Precipitation All
Weather Temperature and Humidity
Soundings) Status | March 7th, 2012


The hopes and dreams rest on placing a sounder aboard a geostationary satellite as opposed to the polar MSU/AMSU system in use today. That would resolve the refresh (temporal) problem. AMSU has a resolution of about 50 km for temperature and 15km for vapor compared to 50km/25km for the baseline rendition of GeoSTAR.

At one time, it was thought that the GeoSTAR system would fly with GOES-R. Not sure if this will happen. Last I heard, GOES-R will launch in 2015.

I'm sure nrt can provide a ton more information but he may have dozed off...
:-)


Only additional info I have is an update to the information you linked. Presentation at this year's Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference "Progressing toward a Geostationary Microwave Sounder Mission" CAUTION: 137 MB Powerpoint file. States technology could be ready for a 2018 mission.
Happy Earth Day!
Yes, everyday is pretty much Earth day around here but I hope this one is great all the same.

Some good rain over the weekend has us green around here.

Is 1.6" alot of precipitable moisture? We get that much rain on an average afternoon in Florida. Should it be 1'6"? THAT would be impressive and near some of our records here.
Happy Earth Day folks. Got some desent rains this week end. 2 day total 1.42 inches at my house in Fort Myers FL
From today!!
P.S. looking at those flooded car pictures in the blog, it seems time to invent airbags that double as floatation devices...for cars.
Chitty Chitty Bang Bang may have had the right idea.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Oh yes what was I thinking!










Hey guys how did you get a pic of me wearing my tin foil hat?
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/22/13 1128Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15 1115Z KUSSELSON
.
LOCATION...NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...S NORTH DAKOTA...WYOMING...
.
ATTN WFOS...ABR...BIS...UNR...CYS...RIW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...SNOW...
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LAST OF THE PV ANOMALIES WAS PUSHING
ACROSS NE OREGON/
W CENTRAL IDAHO WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHING SE ACROSS NE IDAHO AND
NW MONTANA. AHEAD IN N WYOMING, CLOUD TOPS WARMING OF AREA EXTENSE OF
ENHANCED WARMER CLOUDS HAD EXPANDED INDICATING MOSTLY A DECREASE IN
SNOW RATES MOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT MAYBE THE NORTHEAST...BUT LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW HANGING BACK ACROSS NW WY AND SOUTHERN MONTANA TO INTERIOR
SW MONTANA. EXPECT WORST OF SNOWS (MODERATE TO HVY) TO BE OVER AND JUST
LIGHT LINGERING IN WEAK FORCING AND MODERATE MOISTURE. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA..ENHANCED BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD SIGNATURE FROM
INTERIOR WESTERN SD EAST THROUGH CENTRAL SD AND EXTENDING LIGHT PRECIP
TO THE EAST AND NE AS FAR EAST AS INTERIOR
EASTERN SD INTO S CENTRAL ND. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM MAX PWAT
OVER S AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NEBRASKA AND SD AND THEN TURNING ABRUPTLY
WEST ACROSS C SD. COMBO OF BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SHORT WAVE
CUTTING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD..HELPING INCREASE SNOW JUST EAST OF
THE BLACK HILLS AND ON INTO CENTRAL SD. BEHIND NW SD SHORT WAVE...PV
ANOMALIES WITH MUCH LESS ENHANCED CLOUDS RESULTING IN LIGHTER SNOW MOST
AREAS OF N WYOMING, EXCEPT HIGHER SPOTS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1115-1500Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...SHORT WAVE AND TROUGH NW MONTANA THROUGH NE OREGON WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SE AND EAST...ENOUGH FORCING AND LOW TO MODERATE MOISTURE
WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP GOING...POSSIBLY SOME BRIEF MODERATE SNOW HIGH
SPOTS WEST AND NORTHERN WYOMING. BETTER ACTION OUT CENTERED ON SD AND
IN PARTICULAR CENTRAL SD AS DEEP MODERATE MOISTURE (PWAT CLOSE TO 0.8"
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS) GETS ADVECTED INTO THE STATE AND MEETS UP WITH
COOLING SURFACE AND LEAD SHORT WAVE PRODUCING BAROCLINIC LEAF OUT AHEAD
ACROSS AREA CENTERED IN CENTRAL SD FOR HIGHEST SNOW RATES THAT WILL BE
SHIFTING EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE EXPANDING
SOUTH ACROSS N CENTRAL NEBRASKA FOR LOCAL MODERATE TO HVY SNOW TO PUSH
EAST FROM KCDR AREA AS COOLING SURFACE CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH BEHIND
SURFACE LOW PUSHING ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
.
FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/
.
FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS .php
.
LAT...LON 4615 9954 4464 9991 4168 10669 4426 10638
.
NNNN

1141. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


I don't suppose there is a legend for that graphic 1139 or if its temps or anomalies ...

Quoting VR46L:


I don't suppose there is a legend for that graphic or if its temps or anomalies ...
1143. VR46L
Quoting SFLWeatherman:



Cheers thanks!
1144. pcola57
Good Morning and Happy Earth Day to Us and our Planet..
Gonna get outside today and do something positive..
Our planet needs US.. :)

1145. VR46L
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

yeah. I have no idea why I still have 60% pops in my area north of Tampa... Maybe there's enough low level moisture and lift to get storms going
1147. VR46L
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
yeah. I have no idea why I still have 60% pops in my area north of Tampa... Maybe there's enough low level moisture and lift to get storms going


Maybe the afternoon heating might trigger some showers .
Good Morning. Drove the length of Florida this weekend from Tally, to Orlando, to Ft. Lauderdale, to US 27 past Lake Okeechobee, etc. Raining most of the trip but nice and green everywhere. Worst storm I saw was in Ft. Lauderdale on Saturday afternoon. Most beautiful sights we saw was bird-wise driving through the Everglades on US 27 yesterday from South Florida up to Clermont; a flock of about 5 Flamingos cruising over US 27 around Palm Beach; a nice looking Bald Eagle guarding the nest on top of an electric pole near Sebring; and a momma Great Heron crossing the street with three little ones following her somewhere around Lake County. Did not have a chance to look at any radars/weather info during the trip but I see now that it was a State wide rain event as it all exits the East Coast.

Everyone have a great day; weather looks pretty good across the US at the moment but the Spring flooding will be a disaster.
Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..



Cold mid level temperatures and PWAT's of 1.8 to 1.9 means that the atmosphere is very unstable once the sune can break through these low clouds in place right now.

545 AM EDT MON APR 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST AND NORTHEAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ONE OR
TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...CONTAINING STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. STORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
1150. kwgirl
Quoting VR46L:
It would appear that there is not too much rain to come..

Good morning all. From your mouth to God's ear VR46L. Sometime Saturday night two of my car windows were busted, so I currently have a garbage bag taped to the opening. I just hope my insurance company was correct and we have a mobile glass repair service here in the keys.
SPC

...SRN TWO-THIRDS OF FL THIS AFTN...
WEAK SW-NE FRONTAL ZONE NOW STALLED OVER CNTRL FL WILL BE REINFORCED
BY A SURGE OF LOW-LVL NELY FLOW TODAY AS A WEAK WAVE SLOWLY EVOLVES
OFF THE S ATLANTIC CST. WHILE THIS WILL TEND TO USHER IN SOMEWHAT
DRIER LOW-LVL AIR...WITH AFTN HEATING CNTRL AND SRN PARTS OF THE FL
PENINSULA LIKELY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE GIVEN CONTINUING
PRESENCE OF COOL...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH WEAK LWR TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW PROMOTING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...SETUP MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT
IN SCTD-NUMEROUS DIURNAL TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
SFC WINDS.
It has been a while now sense TWC/NBC bought Wunderground. Many people were making a huge stink over it when it happened and I think it is safe to say it was totally unwarranted. In fact sense the takeover the site has improved IMO. Blogging community has improved dramatically sense the introduction of the Real Time updating of blogs and comments. So far I have seen nothing but positives come out. Not sure who exactly is responsible for the upgrades but whoever it is they are doing a great job.
1153. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all. From your mouth to God's ear VR46L. Sometime Saturday night two of my car windows were busted, so I currently have a garbage bag taped to the opening. I just hope my insurance company was correct and we have a mobile glass repair service here in the keys.


Gosh Did a storm do that down at the keys on Saturday ?
Miami NWS Disco

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SHORT TERM PATTERN IN DEPICTING A NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG WITH A STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM MID
LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT EFFECTS THIS WILL HAVE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY PARTICULARLY FOR TODAY. THE LOCALLY RUN WRF DID NOT
INITIALIZE WELL AT ALL AND IGNORES MUCH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION.
THE HRRR DEPICTS THE AREA SHIFTING EAST DURING THE COURSE OF THIS
MORNING AND THIS SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE ANIMATIONS. THE REAL DILEMMA IN TODAY`S FORECAST IS
JUST HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR CONSIDERING THE EXTENSIVE
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES BUT THE FACT THAT
WE ARE BEING INFLUENCED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH 500 MB
TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -11C WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY. IN
ADDITION, THE PWAT FROM THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING IS AT 1.87 INCHES WHICH
IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM FOR LATE APRIL WHICH SHOWS THE CHANCE FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. THEREFORE, ANY SUNSHINE THAT CAN
OCCUR TODAY WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT WITH SOME CHANCE FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It has been a while now sense TWC/NBC bought Wunderground. Many people were making a huge stink over it when it happened and I think it is safe to say it was totally unwarranted. In fact sense the takeover the site has improved IMO. Blogging community has improved dramatically sense the introduction of the Real Time updating of blogs and comments. So far I have seen nothing but positives come out. Not sure who exactly is responsible for the upgrades but whoever it is they are doing a great job.
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..
1156. kwgirl
Quoting VR46L:


Gosh Did a storm do that down at the keys on Saturday ?
No, some hooligan with a rock and a pipe.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..
I think that is a user base problem more so than a blog feature problem.

Edit: Been like that sense I joined if I remember correctly. Had a lot of drama going on back then.
The April Eurosip update shows a wide range.

1159. VR46L
Quoting kwgirl:
No, some hooligan with a rock and a pipe.


Oh God ! I am so sorry there are some people who have nothing better to do than that .. Probably brats who have no idea how to have a good time and parents couldn't be bothered to bring them up right !!
1160. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah all except humor..you can't even tell a joke without someone minusing your comment because it is off topic..


Yeah I know what ya mean ....


Not enough light for visable. More marine influence. 57.1F....
Sorry to hear about your windows Kiwigirl.I hope your insurance does cover windows.They can be quite pricey to replace.
For WPB from NWS!!
Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Is 1.6" alot of precipitable moisture? We get that much rain on an average afternoon in Florida.

Precipitable water does not necessarily equate to how much rain you would receive if a thunderstorm formed over your area. One must also take into account moisture advection - winds move moisture from other areas into areas where storms are occurring. There are many times when some higher-end flash flood events will produce 5-10" of rainfall from very slow moving thunderstorms, yet precipitable water values rarely get above 3in.

The "rarity" of a particular value changes based upon the season. Values exceeding 2 standard deviations or the 99th percentile have been correlated to many heavy rainfall events.

Precipitable water climatology:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=pw
6Z 252HR snow in the NE
2013 will forever be remember for a year without a spring for much of the people in the north..Why wasn't it cold when it was suppose to be?.And why weren't we in this wet pattern when the cold air was around?.And why am I asking questions I already know the answer to?.Everything is so confusing why can't life be more well for the better term laid back?.
here we go!!
spring weather coming soon.
1169. kwgirl
Quoting washingtonian115:
2013 will forever be remember for a year without a spring for much of the people in the north..Why wasn't it cold when it was suppose to be?.And why weren't we in this wet pattern when the cold air was around?.And why am I asking questions I already know the answer to?.Everything is so confusing why can't life be more well for the better term laid back?.
Life is all of what you make of it. Maybe you need to be more "laid back" in your expectations and reactions in order to get a more laid back lifestyle. It must be difficult living in a "high" pressure area without responding in kind. Meditation would help you realize your true self.
Quoting kwgirl:
Life is all of what you make of it. Maybe you need to be more "laid back" in your expectations and reactions in order to get a more laid back lifestyle. It must be difficult living in a "high" pressure area without responding in kind. Meditation would help you realize your true self.
Yes.This city life can be quite tiersome not to mention all that commuting and raising 6 little ones.When I retire I'm thinking about moving to the coast or a quite country side home where life can be less hetic than it all ready is.Or perhaps move to the keys?.I heard the people down there are liad back :) (from commercials on T.V.)
1171. kwgirl
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.This city life can be quite tiersome not to mention all that commuting and raising 6 little ones.When I retire I'm thinking about moving to the coast or a quite country side home where life can be less hetic than it all ready is.Or perhaps move to the keys?.I heard the people down there are liad back :) (from commercials on T.V.)
If you can say manana to anything that needs doing and mean it, then you are half way there. People think we move slowly down here. Mainly because it is hot and humid and to move faster just works up a sweat:)
1172. etxwx
Happy Earth Day all. Looks like a beautiful spring day here in East Texas with a high of 79F and sunny.

In honor of Earth Day:
Earth Day 2013: 13 years of Google's Earth Day doodles

Their graphic artists have come a long way. Enjoy!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
For WPB from NWS!!
Today Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 81. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%.


They don't have clue what the weather will do... possible and chance.... hmmmm also possibly or a chance of the sun shining or a meteor could fall from the sky.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The April Eurosip update shows a wide range.



Woww!!!!! How many members has the EUROPEAN MODEL!!Hoho


Just like the IR said......
The new one from NWS
Today A slight chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tonight Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 65. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Quoting AussieStorm:


They don't have clue what the weather will do... possible and chance.... hmmmm also possibly or a chance of the sun shining or a meteor could fall from the sky.
we have are 26th winter name storm of the season by TWC we now have Winter Storm Zeus we made it too the Z storm
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..
1179. 47n91w
Average April snowfall at my location in far northern Wisconsin is 4.1". I've had 32.6" so far this month (101.6" winter total) with 6" still on the ground from the last storm. And now more is coming tonight. When will it end!?!? Some thundersnow is expected too, haven't experienced that since Christmas 2009.



Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..


The Movie Channel???

Are all the channels over there now joined the bandwagon and starting to name storms?? Are they going to name a hurricane Alf and Barny and Chity-chity-bang-bang, Ernie, John Wayne?
Quoting Tazmanian:
we have are 26th winter name storm of the season by TWC we now have Winter Storm Zeus we made it too the Z storm

And they said they wouldn't name to many. And they missed one before Athena so we could of been on the 1st name of the extras list.
I wonder how rich the fat cash cows head of NBC universal are doing?.They seem to own half the networks on T.V and half of the sites on the web.Must be the life living with all that money..

No Aussie..the market channel (TWC).Since they seem to be in it for the money now instead of the weather..
Quoting washingtonian115:
I wonder if TMC has created their own hurricane naming list.Opps I think I just gave them an idea..


They dont name things that are already named......its so obvious your joke is not funny :D
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


They dont name things that are already named......its so obvious your joke is not funny :D
No it wasn't meant to be funny..You'll be surprised how far people will go for ratings..
Quoting stormchaser19:


Woww!!!!! How many members has the EUROPEAN MODEL!!Hoho


Really I don't know the total ensemble members but for sure more than 20.Maybe Levi knows the exact number.
.