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Extreme 111° heat hits Texas; floods kill 9 in Haiti

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:25 PM GMT on April 26, 2012

Another round of unprecedented April heat hit the U.S. yesterday, and this time it was Texas' turn to see large sections of the state with the hottest April temperatures in over a century of record keeping. Seven major airports in Texas set all-time April high temperatures yesterday:

Amarillo, TX: 99° (old April record 98° on 4/22/1989 and 4/22/1965)
Lubbock, TX: 101° (old April record 100° on 4/16/1925 and /22/1989)
Dalhart, TX: 96° (old April record 94° on 4/22/1989)
Borger, TX: 99° (tied April record set on 4/22/1965)
Midland, TX: 104° (old April record 101° on 4/21/1989)
Abilene, TX: 104° (old April record 102° on 4/16/1925)
Childress, TX: 106° (old April record 102° on three occasions, most recently on 4/3/2011)

According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, both Texas and Oklahoma came within 2°F of their all-time April state high temperature record yesterday. Altus, Oklahoma hit 104°, falling 2° short of the April state record of 106° set at the Magnum Research Station in 1972. In the Texas Mesonet, it hit 111° at Knox City 3NW, which is just 2° short of the Texas April state record of 113° set at Catarina in 1984. According to Mr. Burt, What is amazing is that Knox City is in the north-central part of the state, not down in the Rio Grande region like Catarina. The 111° would probably be pretty close to whatever the all-time hottest temp for ANY month might be in that location (probably around 115°). On Sunday this week, Nevada just missed setting their April state high temperature record, when the mercury hit 105° in Laughlin (April state record: 106° in 1989.)


Figure 1. At least 36 of the roughly 400 major U.S. cities that maintain automated weather sensors at their local airports (8%) have set or tied all-time April high temperature records so far this month. The records set yesterday in Texas are not yet in the database, and are not included on this map. Image taken from our new Record Extremes page.

Earlier this week, all-time record April heat hit large portions of Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Wyoming. At least 36 of the roughly 400 major U.S. cities that maintain automated weather sensors at their local airports (8%) have set or tied all-time April high temperature records so far this month; no all-time April cold records have been set. The U.S. has been on an extraordinary pace of setting high temperature records so far in 2012. During March 2012, an astonishing 32% of all the major airports in the U.S. set all-time March high temperature records. For the year-to-date, there have been 184 new all-time monthly high temperature records set at the major airports, and 6 all-time monthly low temperature records. Not surprisingly, the period January - March this year has been the warmest such period in the U.S. since record keeping began in 1895.



Figure 2. Total precipitable water (in mm) for this morning shows a surge of moisture moving westwards though the Caribbean. Precipitable water values in excess of 51 mm (2 inches, orange colors) are capable of generating heavy flooding rains. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

Heavy rains kill nine in Haiti
The rainy season has begun on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola, where heavy rains that began on Monday have triggered mudslides and floods that killed nine people. Nearly 500,000 people are still homeless in Haiti from the January 2010 earthquake, making the country highly vulnerable to flooding disasters. Heavy flooding was also a problem this week in the neighboring Dominican Republic, where 11,000 people were evacuated; no deaths were reported there, however. Precipitation forecasts from the GFS model suggest that the worst is over for Hispaniola, with the axis of greatest moisture expected to move west of the island today. This surge of moisture will bring heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, the Bahamas, Cayman Islands, and South Florida during the remainder of the week.

Jeff Masters
I'll have another cup please
I'll have another cup please
Gonna be a good day

Heat Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Another great post from Doc! Thank you!
"Its getting hot in here...."

Thanks Dr M!
I would imagine both Haitians and relief workers on the island are dreading the approach of hurricane season. And rightly so.
Good morning, when one part of the nation is hot another part is cold.
One part will be dry and another part flooded.

Mother Nature is always delivering surprises.

Thanks for the update Dr Jeff.


Nea, we said the same thing about Haiti last year and we say it every year. That poor country is always in the state of disaster.
So sad for the people who live there.


Still nice and cool in SE Florida, this surprise cool front the past few days has been nice but I enjoy the warmer temps.

Happy Thursday my friends.

good morning folks.....................................
gamma is right... Haiti is always in a state of disaster. Between deforested hillsides that create flooding issues, to ramshackle living conditions, abject poverty, and a terribly corrupt and ill-supported government... there isn't much looking up for Haiti. What Haiti desperately needs is a massive influx of funds to repair infrastructure, reforest the mountainsides, and "stop the bleeding" caused by the poverty. Unfortunately, nobody wants to or can pony up the necessary cash.

Haiti is ideally positioned to become a major tourist attraction, except for the abject poverty and deforested hillsides.
Maybe Fla. could adopt Haiti as a dependent state?

Why don't they plant some @#$% trees on the mountains of Hispanola if this happens so frequently? Are there political reasons or what? Seed for trees is very inexpensive. I would think it would be worth it to even consider non-native trees for planting if native seed is hard to come by and it has the potential to save many lives month after month, year after year. This has troubled me for some time now...
Thanks Dr. Masters
April 26, SST Anomaly
Quoting j0nd03:
Why don't they plant some @#$% trees on the mountains of Hispanola if this happens so frequently? Are there political reasons or what? Seed for trees is very inexpensive. I would think it would be worth it to even consider non-native trees for planting if native seed is hard to come by and it has the potential to save many lives month after month, year after year. This has troubled me for some time now...
Because poverty there is so profound that seedlings and saplings wouldn't stand a chance in many areas. Left to its own devices, the island would become lush and verdant again after a number of decades. But so long as a destitute and desperate population needs to survive, no resource will be left untouched--and trees, native or exotic, are definitely a resource.
Quoting j0nd03:
Why don't they plant some @#$% trees on the mountains of Hispanola if this happens so frequently? Are there political reasons or what? Seed for trees is very inexpensive. I would think it would be worth it to even consider non-native trees for planting if native seed is hard to come by and it has the potential to save many lives month after month, year after year. This has troubled me for some time now...

Because as soon as you plant trees, people cut them down for fuel. Conservation isn't even a concept to them - survival is the most important thing.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Because poverty there is so profound that seedlings and saplings wouldn't stand a chance in many areas. Left to its own devices, the island would become lush and verdant again after a number of decades. But so long as a destitute and desperate population needs to survive, no resource will be left untouched--and trees, native or exotic, are definitely a resource.

I don't think it would even take a "number of decades", honestly. Give Haiti 10-15 years, and it will be very lush and verdant. The country just needs about that long of full support, which considering the country does not have much in the way of oil reserves or resources worth the expense... no sovereign nation is going to spend that much money just to be a good neighbor.
Steady (not heavy) rain here on Providenciales,
Turks and Caicos today.
Thanks DRM. Seems I'm still in the "Cold" part of Texas or anywhere else yipe! I'm glad the rain is moving away from Haiti. Hopefully those who need it will get some.
Nigel,some cooling is taking place in the a few areas of the Pacific. Here is a graphic of Febuary 23rd and todays one and you can see the difference.

Febuary 23rd:



April 26:

Quoting Neapolitan:
Because poverty there is so profound that seedlings and saplings wouldn't stand a chance in many areas. Left to its own devices, the island would become lush and verdant again after a number of decades. But so long as a destitute and desperate population needs to survive, no resource will be left untouched--and trees, native or exotic, are definitely a resource.


It's called over population, and on an island....that aint good
Definite feature in the SW Caribbean, caught my eye yesterday and has improved this morning
Later all
Next system in C Pac, looks powerfull...


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nigel,some cooling is taking place in the a few areas of the Pacific. Here is a graphic of Febuary 23rd and todays one and you can see the difference.

Febuary 23rd:



April 26:


Yeah...this will further inhibit the chance of an early el nino



A lush line of palm trees stands sentinel on an isolated Dominican Republic beach.

Photograph by Raul Touzon

Dominican Republic
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Not to be confused with The Commonwealth of Dominica.

Dominican Republic
República Dominicana (Spanish)

Flag Coat of arms
Motto: "Dios, Patria, Libertad"
(Spanish)
"God, Fatherland, Liberty"
Anthem:



Himno Nacional
"National Anthem"

Capital
(and largest city) Santo Domingo
19°00′N 70°40′W
Official language(s) Spanish
Ethnic groups 73%: Multiracial
16%: White

11%: Black
Demonym Dominican
Government Unitary and Democratic Republic[4][5] or Representative Democracy[5]
- President Leonel Fernández[5]
- Vice President Rafael Alburquerque[5]
Independence
- from Spain December 1, 1821[5]
- from Haiti February 27, 1844[5]
- from Spain August 16, 1865[5]
Area
- Total 48,442 km2 (130th)
18,704 sq mi
- Water (%) 0.7[4]
Population
- 2010 census 9,378,818
- Density 193.6/km2 (?)
501.5/sq mi
GDP (PPP) 2011 estimate
- Total $93.383 billion[6]
- Per capita $9,286[6]
GDP (nominal) 2011 estimate
- Total $56.700 billion[6]
- Per capita $5,638[6]
Gini (2005) 49.9[4] (high)
HDI (2010) 0.663[7] (medium) (88th)
Currency Peso[5] (DOP)
Time zone Atlantic (UTC-4[4])
Drives on the right
ISO 3166 code DO
Internet TLD .do[4]
Calling code +1-809, +1-829, +1-849
Sources for:
area, capital, coat of arms, coordinates, flag, language, motto, and names: .

For an alternate area figure of 48,730 km2, calling code 809, and Internet TLD:

The Dominican Republic (i/dəˌmɪnɨkən rɨˈpʌblɪk/; Spanish: República Dominicana [reˈpuβlika ðominiˈkana]) is a nation on the island of Hispaniola, part of the Greater Antilles archipelago in the Caribbean region. The western third of the island is occupied by the nation of Haiti, making Hispaniola one of two Caribbean islands that are shared by two countries. Both by area and population, the Dominican Republic is the second largest Caribbean nation (after Cuba), with 48,442 square kilometres (18,704 sq mi) and an estimated 10 million people.

Taínos inhabited what is now the Dominican Republic since the 7th century. Christopher Columbus landed on it in 1492, and it became the site of the first permanent European settlement in the Americas, namely Santo Domingo, the country's capital and Spain's first capital in the New World. Santo Domingo can boast of many firsts in the Americas, including the first cathedral, and castle, both in the Ciudad Colonial area, a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

After three centuries of Spanish rule, with French and Haitian interludes, the country became independent in 1821 under the rule of a former colonial judge who maintained the system of slavery and limited rights for the mostly mulatto and black population. The ruler, José Núñez de Cáceres, intended that the Dominican Republic be part of the nation of Gran Colombia, but he was quickly removed by the Haitian government and "Dominican" slave revolts. Victorious in the Dominican War of Independence in 1844, Dominicans experienced mostly internal strife, and also a brief return to Spanish rule, over the next 72 years. The United States occupation of 1916–1924, and a subsequent calm and prosperous six-year period under Horacio Vásquez Lajara, were followed by the dictatorship of Rafael Leonidas Trujillo Molina until 1961. The civil war of 1965, the country's last, was ended by a U.S.-led intervention, and was followed by the authoritarian rule of Joaquín Balaguer, 1966–1978. Since then, the Dominican Republic has moved toward representative democracy, and has been led by Leonel Fernández for most of the time after 1996.

The Dominican Republic has the second largest economy in the Caribbean and Central American region. Though long known for sugar production, the economy is now dominated by services. The country's economic progress is exemplified by its advanced telecommunication system. Nevertheless, unemployment, government corruption, and inconsistent electric service remain major Dominican problems. The country also has "marked income inequality".
Well let's think outside the box here. What about mass fruit bearing trees that are more valuable alive then dead? I am not just talking about fleshy fruit you get in the produce section. There are nut trees that produce nutrient rich fruit in the nut, too (nut trees sometimes get overlooked for their life sustaining fruit). I am not too familiar with tropical trees personally, but I know there must be many, MANY trees more valuable for the food they produce than the wood is for fuel.

I am probably living in a dreamworld, though by the sound of the comments.
Good Morning. Here is a portion of the NCEP Tropical Discussion for today (with the full link below). Note that it discusses the "start" of the Northward movement of the Atlantic Basin sub-tropical ridge which is where most of the wave and hurricane "action" gets started once we get into H-Season. Mother Nature starting to shift to Summer in the Atlantic.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
615 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI.

AS EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE HAS BEGUN ITS NORTHWARD/WESTWARD EXPANSION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO
THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
THIS IS STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WIND CAP...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWING EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOISTURE CLUSTERING ALONG A WANING SURFACE FRONT THAT MEANDERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA.


Link
..if we forget what was done to our Earth, then they got away with it.
Quoting j0nd03:
Well let's think outside the box here. What about mass fruit bearing trees that are more valuable alive then dead? I am not just talking about fleshy fruit you get in the produce section. There are nut trees that produce nutrient rich fruit in the nut, too (nut trees sometimes get overlooked for their life sustaining fruit). I am not too familiar with tropical trees personally, but I know there must be many, MANY trees more valuable for the food they produce than the wood is for fuel.

I am probably living in a dreamworld, though by the sound of the comments.

It is all fire wood.
Because as soon as you plant trees, people cut them down for fuel. Conservation isn't even a concept to them - survival is the most important thing.

I know--maybe they could plant kudzu. That will sure cover a hillside in a hurry.
The Caribbean is looking interesting.
Quoting susieq110:
The Caribbean is looking interesting.


Looks like something we would see May 26th, not April 26th
30. rlk
Knox City, TX is maybe 30 miles from Seymour, TX -- the site of the all-time record high for that state (120). North central TX and the southeast panhandle are the hottest parts of the state (Childress hit 117 last summer, if I recall correctly). So very high temperatures aren't necessarily unexpected there. April is another matter.
It aint much but at least some chance of rain is back in the forecast. Although there's been no escaping that dreaded "R" word. Sigh...

THE WEEKEND WILL SERVE AS SOMETHING OF TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND A LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE CONUS. THE SWITCH TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-MID LEVEL FETCH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOISTURE AND LESS INHIBITION IN THE 900-700MB LAYER. IN CONCERT
WITH PERTURBATIONS PROGGED TO BEGIN EJECTING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...THIS SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST SMALL MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES TO ENTER THE PICTURE BY NEXT WEEK.
FOR THIS
PACKAGE...INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY WITH BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING ONE OF THESE SUBTLE IMPULSES LIFTING OUT
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE EXTENDED DRY AT THIS
TIME AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
Drought making a comeback in TX, if we don't get widespread rains soon, things will start to deteriorate along the coast, and the hill country is already hurting, only gonna get worse.

Winds are gusty, full sun, hazy, reminding me of last year.

27 Snowfire: I know--maybe [Haiti] could plant kudzu. That will sure cover a hillside in a hurry.

Don't bet on it. Kudzu is edible.
Quoting Patrap:
..if we forget what was done to our Earth, then they got away with it.
we get away with nothing the price yet to pay is high
Quoting aspectre:
Don't bet on it. Kudzu is edible.

And isn't as flammable as wood. (it is a type of grass, after all)

For an idea of how thoroughly the hillsides look, go to google earth (or maps), and look at Gonaives, Haiti. There is a major hill just north of the town center... completely and utterly stripped of all trees (and just about anything growing).



Worst and peaked conditions for TX was September 2011

World's glaciers 'out of balance'


The retreat of McCall Glacier in North Alaska. The left panel is 1958; the right panel is 2003
Quoting Patrap:

Consistent with the geomagnetic storm kicking up the atmosphere from a solar wind stream that has been impacting us.
For Dr. Masters/Admin -- regular updates on significant moisture surges would be a helpful thing to have, going forward, I would think. In today's case that goes double, since so many areas of South Florida are in drought or even on fire watches!

Many thanks for this posting today.

Some Asian glaciers 'putting on mass'



The Karakoram range is home to K2, the world's second highest mountain, as seen from space.
Quoting jeffs713:

Consistent with the geomagnetic storm kicking up the atmosphere from a solar wind stream that has been impacting us.


Been a whopper.

The graph is for the fluxgate magnometer at HAARP. That is a scientific instrument that measures intensities of magnetic fields.
XX/AOI/XL
Alberta Aurora

The Geomagnetic Storming over the past several days produced some brilliant Aurora over many parts of North America. Here is yet another great movie submitted by Zoltan Kenwell showing us what it looked like over the skies of Alberta, Canada.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
XX/AOI/XL

Just a teeny bit of shear there.
Quoting j0nd03:
Well let's think outside the box here. What about mass fruit bearing trees that are more valuable alive then dead? I am not just talking about fleshy fruit you get in the produce section. There are nut trees that produce nutrient rich fruit in the nut, too (nut trees sometimes get overlooked for their life sustaining fruit). I am not too familiar with tropical trees personally, but I know there must be many, MANY trees more valuable for the food they produce than the wood is for fuel.

I am probably living in a dreamworld, though by the sound of the comments.



I believe "thinking outside the box" may indeed be what's needed here. There are trees that produce an inferior grade of wood but which grow phenomenally quickly, several feet a year (a few which even grow metres per year). Many are invasives and should normally never be considered for deliberate plantings. But one could argue the Haitian situation is so dire, even hillsides full of eucalyptus or leucaena trees would be better than hills of flowing mud every rainy season.
Quoting jeffs713:

Just a teeny bit of shear there.
yeah sheared area of convective rains interesting for now
Quoting OrchidGrower:



I believe "thinking outside the box" may indeed be what's needed here. There are trees that produce an inferior grade of wood but which grow phenomenally quickly, several feet a year (a few which even grow metres per year). Many are invasives and should normally never be considered for deliberate plantings. But one could argue the Haitian situation is so dire, even hillsides full of eucalyptus or leucaena trees would be better than hills of flowing mud every rainy season.

Bamboo is also an option - but is the definition of invasive... and it also doesn't burn well... or provide anything except anchoring on a hillside.
Keep Haiti Green and Beautiful Initiative Launched on 19 April 2012 in Arcahaie, Haiti

The office of the Diaspora of Haitian President Martelly is working on a plan to address the environmental issues facing the country. At a ceremony in Arcahaie, Haiti on 19 April 2012, environmental activists committed to replanting trees, one of the primary concerns people have when they talk about Haiti’s environmental problems, which include the need for clean water, public sanitation, electricity and road infrastructure.

Nadine hosted the first internet radio program – Keep Haiti Green and Beautiful on BlogTalkRadio.
We will need a yellow circle in the SE Caribbean! Convection firing nicely there with some isolated very cold tops. Interesting. SSTs are 27-28C..
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012



CARIBBEAN SEA...


THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CUTS ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 16N78W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT ARE NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W TO 15N75W
AND CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING ALL
OVER HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF E CUBA. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED
OVER VENEZUELA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FURTHER ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
OVER HISPANIOLA. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT. THE
WESTERN TROUGH WILL TRACK WNW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE FRI
AND TO INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT.
Quoting CaribBoy:
We will need a yellow circle in the SE Caribbean! Convection firing nicely there with some isolated very cold tops. Interesting. SSTs are 27-28%uFFFDC..
Way to much shear, 60-100 knots.  Nothing has a chance down there but squally weather. ;)
There's a few trees when you take an ax to them the ax just bounces off, really fibrous, only chainsaws work, and even that is an effort


Quoting jeffs713:

Bamboo is also an option - but is the definition of invasive... and it also doesn't burn well... or provide anything except anchoring on a hillside.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Drought making a comeback in TX, if we don't get widespread rains soon, things will start to deteriorate along the coast, and the hill country is already hurting, only gonna get worse.

Winds are gusty, full sun, hazy, reminding me of last year.



Yeah, we've been insanely "wet" this year so far even compared to normal. But I can't forget how quickly things went south last summer. Maybe going to take something tropical? I found this last night while looking for a correlation between the sunspots/solar cycles and hurricanes that someone asked about. There are numerous instances of tropical systems at least helping the droughts all over the state. As usual "over" helping in most cases. Welcome to Texas...

First to the sun cycle question Found this FWIW (lol, not what I was looking for so I'm cranky about it. ;D)...

Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether this pattern exists because of sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 there are periods in the hurricane climatology that have greater activity than others. These periods were defined as being “hurricane-rich” or “hurricane-poor”. Hurricane-rich periods last, on average, 11 years with an average of 8 landfalls in their midst. Hurricane-poor periods last, on average, 14 years and only 2 landfalls usually occur.
We are currently in a hurricane-rich period which began in 2003. This is expected to last
until around 2014, plus or minus a few years. Texas will be extremely prone to hurricane landfalls during the time frame. Whether or not we should expect as few as two or as many as 8 storms in the next decade, all it takes is one to make life miserable for residents along the coast.

As to droughts...

Benefits of tropical cyclones.
Of the 122 storms chronicled in this survey, 11 are credited with alleviating drought conditions across the Lone Star State. Without tropical storms and hurricanes moving into Texas, summer rainfall would be about 10% lower than what currently falls across eastern Texas. This could be disastrous for cotton, corn, and rice grown statewide, as they are highly dependent on this added rainfall contribution.

Texas Hurricane History
David Roth
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD
Link
Here is a solution to Hait's lack of vegetation problem. Portlight can organize a flotilla of barges to ship down 40 lb bags of chipped tree debris. If the Hatian people have plenty of wood for charcoal then there would be no need to chop down trees. Seedlings can then be planted. This would be a ongoing mission.
are there waterspout outbreaks over water?

I have always wondered if ,under the right conditions, those powereful 120+ kt jet streams over the Pacific, and Atlantic oceans ever lead to supercellular waterspout producing storms.
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Here is a solution to Hait's lack of vegetation problem. Portlight can organize a flotilla of barges to ship down 40 lb bags of chipped tree debris. If the Hatian people have plenty of wood for charcoal then there would be no need to chop down trees. Seedlings can then be planted. This would be a ongoing mission.


trust me, portlight does not have enough chipped trees.
17 RitaEvac: It's called over population, and on an island....that ain't good

So is Earth, and we've already built upon and paved over an area the size of India.

Welcome to the Anthropocene

Some maps of major roads, railways, airliner paths, energy pipelines, and communications links
How bout burning money, there were a few wars would would of won, if instead of dropping bombs we had instead buried them in that same amount of cash so deep that they would of suffocated. Now in Haiti we just need to send money to burn... big barges full, small bills of $1's or $5's ... who's in? We'll drop it from planes so the politicians and war-lords won't have a chance to seize it first..

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Here is a solution to Hait's lack of vegetation problem. Portlight can organize a flotilla of barges to ship down 40 lb bags of chipped tree debris. If the Hatian people have plenty of wood for charcoal then there would be no need to chop down trees. Seedlings can then be planted. This would be a ongoing mission.
Still a lot of moisture too...
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether this pattern exists because of sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 there are periods in the hurricane climatology that have greater activity than others. These periods were defined as being “hurricane-rich” or “hurricane-poor”. Hurricane-rich periods last, on average, 11 years with an average of 8 landfalls in their midst. Hurricane-poor periods last, on average, 14 years and only 2 landfalls usually occur.
We are currently in a hurricane-rich period which began in 2003. This is expected to last
until around 2014, plus or minus a few years.


Seems like enough time has passed since the 1950s that more relevant and more robust research would exist on this topic. I would be skeptical of that study, especially if you can find nothing else backing it up. If there is such a connection or pattern, it should show up in the more reliable data of since the 1970s...
Louisiana Hurricane History
David Roth
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD
Link

“We live in the shadow of a danger over which we have no control: the Gulf, like a provoked and angry giant, can awake from its seeming lethargy, overstep its conventional boundaries, invade our land and spread chaos and disaster” - Part of “Prayer for Hurricane Season” read as Grand Chenier every weekend of summer (Gomez).
Quoting Grothar:
If it was hurricane season, this could have been serious trouble..
While the Atlantic and Caribbean is starting the "slow" transition to Summer and a few "thingies" have been cooking down there a bit lately (I think a few have noted an upward MJO pulse down there over the next few weeks) sheer is still way too high down there and a significant drop would not be expected for several weeks (taking us into June theoretically). But who knows; if the right conditions came together (the right disturbance in the right place with favorable low sheer) we could see an early bird in May or June. If the sheer starts to drop sooner that expected in May or early June, it would be time to start looking closely at the longer range models.

Right now, the sheer is oppressive....Link
Quoting hydrus:
If it was hurricane season, this could have been serious trouble..


I was just posting that image. You're getting good,hydrus. Yep, it is early to see those down there.
"Suspected tornadoes have struck two areas of England damaging buildings and uprooting trees.

Residents in Rugby in Warwickshire said a tornado had "ripped a path" through properties toppling a chimney stack and knocking down fences.

Meanwhile, more than 100 miles away, farm buildings were blown down killing 20 chickens near Halstead in Essex."

Link

Quoting hydrus:
If it was hurricane season, this could have been serious trouble..


I fully agree......................... :)
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Seems like enough time has passed since the 1950s that more relevant and more robust research would exist on this topic. I would be skeptical of that study, especially if you can find nothing else backing it up. If there is such a connection or pattern, it should show up in the more reliable data of since the 1970s...


Yes, I agree. I had read before about this, at least as far as the Texas coast was concerned. In that article it gave examples of how, I'm assuming, the same man had been correct about the correlation in the past. Basically he had called it right before hand. But I googled my fingers off to no avail trying to find out more about it. :)
Quoting j0nd03:
Well let's think outside the box here. What about mass fruit bearing trees that are more valuable alive then dead? I am not just talking about fleshy fruit you get in the produce section. There are nut trees that produce nutrient rich fruit in the nut, too (nut trees sometimes get overlooked for their life sustaining fruit). I am not too familiar with tropical trees personally, but I know there must be many, MANY trees more valuable for the food they produce than the wood is for fuel.

I am probably living in a dreamworld, though by the sound of the comments.


In some of the poorest areas of India the government is paying villages to plant and maintain trees. Not a lot of money, but enough so that the trees are growing. Annually the trees are inventoried and payments are based on the number and quality of trees.

It would seem that this would be a good carbon offset project for someone to tackle. Plant food producing trees. Also plant trees which can be 'top harvested' for firewood. Pay people a stipend based on how well their portion of the forest is thriving. Let them make additional money from fruit/nuts/firewood.

Start people off with a more generous supplement and dial it back a bit as the trees start to produce.

If the trees are valuable then someone will keep watch over them. Not unlike the farmers in Nepal who sleep in their fields to ward off the rhinos....

Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Here is a solution to Hait's lack of vegetation problem. Portlight can organize a flotilla of barges to ship down 40 lb bags of chipped tree debris. If the Hatian people have plenty of wood for charcoal then there would be no need to chop down trees. Seedlings can then be planted. This would be a ongoing mission.



'Seems daunting, but I think you're onto something here. Your comment reminded me that there are little solar-powered stoves which some hunger-relief organizations give to the poor, precisely because of people otherwise deforesting the land. That could indeed be part of the solution here -- remove the need for locals to chop down the growing seedlings.
Quoting Patrap:
Alberta Aurora

The Geomagnetic Storming over the past several days produced some brilliant Aurora over many parts of North America. Here is yet another great movie submitted by Zoltan Kenwell showing us what it looked like over the skies of Alberta, Canada.



Thanks for the Auroras Pat.
Quoting jeffs713:

Bamboo is also an option - but is the definition of invasive... and it also doesn't burn well... or provide anything except anchoring on a hillside.


There are clumping bamboos which are not invasive.

Bamboo is becoming a valuable crop. It makes beautiful floors and amazingly soft fabric. Bamboo is a major structural material in lots of the world.
There are a number of reasons why Haiti has so many deadly events, but here is what happens to them on a fairly regular basis.....
Timeline of Haiti's natural disasters

Some of the worst natural disasters to batter Haiti:

_ 1770: Strong earthquake devastates Port-au-Prince in then French colony.

_ 1842: Earthquake destroys Cap-Haitien and other cities in northern Haiti and Dominican Republic.

_ 1935: Unnamed storm kills more than 2,000 in Haiti before moving on to Florida as hurricane, where 400 die.

_ 1946: Magnitude-8.1 quake strikes Dominican Republic and Haiti, causing tsunami that kills 1,790 people.

_ 1954: Hurricane Hazel kills hundreds in Haiti.

_ 1963: Hurricane Flora leaves more than 6,000 dead in Haiti and Cuba.

_ 1994: Hurricane Gordon blamed for hundreds of deaths in Haiti.

_ 1998: Hurricane Georges destroys 80 percent of Haiti's crops while killing more than 400.

_ May 2004: Three days of heavy rains cause floods that kill more than 2,600.

_ September 2004: Tropical Storm Jeanne causes flooding and landslides that kill 1,900 and leave 200,000 homeless in Gonaives, Haiti's third-largest city.

_ October 2007: Tropical Storm Noel triggers mudslides and floods, killing at least 57 Haitians.

_ August and September 2008: Three hurricanes and tropical storm kill some 800 in Haiti, devastate crops and cause $1 billion in damage.

_ January 12, 2010: Magnitude-7.0 quake levels buildings in Port-Au-Prince, raising fears of tens of thousands of deaths.

Sources: Associated Press archives, US Geological Survey.
Quoting Grothar:


I was just posting that image. You're getting good,hydrus. Yep, it is early to see those down there.
Thanks Gro.....:)
Wow, are we sure this is April!
48 OrchidGrower: ...one could argue the Haitian situation is so dire, even hillsides full of eucalyptus or leucaena trees would be better than hills of flowing mud every rainy season.

Eucalyptus makes excellent firewood and charcoal... and leucaena makes excellent charcoal (the wood burns too rapidly to be a good choice as firewood).
Visible..
Not much but the Colombian Heat Low








Link
Here is our historical late April Nor,Easter and the satellite snow print..
SE FL and the Bahamas are in for a temendous amount of rain! It looks infact that the rainy season is about to get going across S FL while us in C FL watch the rains just south of us.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah, we've been insanely "wet" this year so far even compared to normal. But I can't forget how quickly things went south last summer. Maybe going to take something tropical? I found this last night while looking for a correlation between the sunspots/solar cycles and hurricanes that someone asked about. There are numerous instances of tropical systems at least helping the droughts all over the state. As usual "over" helping in most cases. Welcome to Texas...

First to the sun cycle question Found this FWIW (lol, not what I was looking for so I'm cranky about it. ;D)...

Long term trends/hurricane cycles. Studies were made back in the 1950's by Dr. W. Armstrong Price on hurricane incidence along the Texas coast and the sunspot cycle. Regardless of whether this pattern exists because of sunspots or some other interannual climate cycle, using data back to 1829 there are periods in the hurricane climatology that have greater activity than others. These periods were defined as being “hurricane-rich” or “hurricane-poor”. Hurricane-rich periods last, on average, 11 years with an average of 8 landfalls in their midst. Hurricane-poor periods last, on average, 14 years and only 2 landfalls usually occur.
We are currently in a hurricane-rich period which began in 2003. This is expected to last
until around 2014, plus or minus a few years. Texas will be extremely prone to hurricane landfalls during the time frame. Whether or not we should expect as few as two or as many as 8 storms in the next decade, all it takes is one to make life miserable for residents along the coast.

As to droughts...

Benefits of tropical cyclones.
Of the 122 storms chronicled in this survey, 11 are credited with alleviating drought conditions across the Lone Star State. Without tropical storms and hurricanes moving into Texas, summer rainfall would be about 10% lower than what currently falls across eastern Texas. This could be disastrous for cotton, corn, and rice grown statewide, as they are highly dependent on this added rainfall contribution.

Texas Hurricane History
David Roth
National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD
Link




Models are showing very little rain for TX for maybe atleast 2 weeks but we all know that can change fast so hang in there.
Quoting StormTracker2K:




Models are showing very little rain for TX for maybe atleast 2 weeks but we all know that can change fast so hang in there.


Thanks. :) Hope y'all get the rain you need too.
Young bamboo shoots are also edible if memory serves me right. The problem with a lot of the plants that might quickly spring to mind (not sure if this applies to bamboo) is they are deciduous trees that go into dormancy in the winter. In the climate of Hispanola, I doubt "winter" temps would be sufficient to trigger this dormancy. Day light amount also plays a large role in dormancy, but the closer to the equator one gets, the less sunlight length is affected. Some trees REQUIRE this dormancy and will not tolerate prolonged periods (years) of active growth without a dormancy period(s).

Love the idea for providing fuel for them to burn. One important item to consider is that some plants/trees only need 1-2 good growing season to put down a good root system. They could then be harvested on a set timeline (think biennial or so) then send up new growth suckers the following spring. Rinse and repeat the harvesting sequence. This would only require a large initial supply of fuel until the harvestable vegetation has taken hold and has established well enough to recover from being cut. Paulownia tomentosa is one such tree that responds very well to being cut. Extremely well actually and considering the amount of rain they get, after the root system is established 8-10' per year is possible. Now let me say they are a NASTY INVASIVE in most of the US and SHOULD NOT BE PLANTED here. As to this discussion, I have no idea the dormancy needs of this tree.

In England, coppicing was a very popular practice to maintain a steady supply of firewood and remains very effective on the species known for this quality. Some coppiced specimens can live 1000 years+. Pollarding, though not intended for this in particular could also be effective keeping trees small enough to harvest the fruit while using the cut tops of the trees for fuel.

Some people don't realize we have tree farms for the sole purpose of being grown to be harvested for their lumber whether it be for fuel, cabinets, etc on large tracts of land here.
This system north of Panama is trying to organize. Also by the there is NO 60 to 100knt shear over this system as the shear is located over the NW Caribbean not Southern Caribbean. There is shear yes but only in the 20 to 30knt range. This is a system to watch for sure regardless of what the calender says!

Link
The Last hurricane to directly the Tampa bay was in 1921.........................Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This system north of Panama is trying to organize. Also by the there is NO 60 to 100knt shear over this system as the shear is located over the NW Caribbean not Southern Caribbean. There is shear yes but only in the 20 to 30knt range. This is a system to watch for sure!

Link
one site has this as yet another up the east coast kinda storm..something to watch
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Thanks. :) Hope y'all get the rain you need too.


Yeah it appears there is going to be rain but in S FL not C FL however this can change especially if this decideds to drift further up the state. Right it looks as if I will stay dry unless things change of course.
UFO spaceship orbiting the sun, or a camera glitch?




UFO hunters have spotted a curious object near the sun in a new NASA image. It is, in the words of a blogger for the website Gather, "what looks like a metallic, jointed spaceship with a gigantic extension, perhaps a boom arm, anchored off its lower end."

The YouTube video drawing attention to the object has quickly made its way to discussion forums and the tabloid press, and many seasoned UFO believers are calling it a definite "spot."

But does this image, which was taken by a camera on board NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) on Tuesday (April 24), really show a spaceship dropping by the sun to harvest some solar energy, as one YouTube commenter suggested? Or is this object something much more mundane? We asked scientists in the solar physics branch at the United States Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) — the group that analyzes data from Lasco 2, the telescopic camera that snapped the picture.

According to Nathan Rich, lead ground systems engineer in the NRL's solar physics branch, the "spaceship" is merely a collection of streaks left by cosmic rays, charged particles from space, which whizzed through the camera's sensor, or CCD, as the image was taken.
Quoting LargoFl:
one site has this as yet another up the east coast kinda storm..something to watch


Yeah I saw that and the GFS did shift the ULL a little to the north hence whay S FL appears to really be under the gun now but as you said it's not our of the question this rides up the east coast of FL.
The animated visible over the Southern Caribbean looks interesting.
Serious question..if this DID happen, would I..then be living is South America, because the globe would Have to flip would it not??....alot of smart people in here, maybe get a good answer...................2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
Apr. 26, 2012 - 16:45 UTC
Quoting RitaEvac:
UFO spaceship orbiting the sun, or a camera glitch?




UFO hunters have spotted a curious object near the sun in a new NASA image. It is, in the words of a blogger for the website Gather, "what looks like a metallic, jointed spaceship with a gigantic extension, perhaps a boom arm, anchored off its lower end."

The YouTube video drawing attention to the object has quickly made its way to discussion forums and the tabloid press, and many seasoned UFO believers are calling it a definite "spot."

But does this image, which was taken by a camera on board NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) on Tuesday (April 24), really show a spaceship dropping by the sun to harvest some solar energy, as one YouTube commenter suggested? Or is this object something much more mundane? We asked scientists in the solar physics branch at the United States Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) — the group that analyzes data from Lasco 2, the telescopic camera that snapped the picture.

According to Nathan Rich, lead ground systems engineer in the NRL's solar physics branch, the "spaceship" is merely a collection of streaks left by cosmic rays, charged particles from space, which whizzed through the camera's sensor, or CCD, as the image was taken.


If there is any sort of alien life in the solar system right now, it's either:

A. Bacteria or maybe small bug size creatures on Mars
B. Bacteria or fish-like creatures on Europa
C. Some sort of weird extremophile on any of the other planets or moons.

It's not orbiting the sun or building temples on Mars or Mercury, and they are not flying in and out of our atmosphere at will unnoticed, because someone would have said something by now if the government had a cover up of this size. If they can't even hide a scandal in the Secret Service, they can't hide proof of aliens. All these conspiracy theorists need to take off the tinfoil hats and get back to reality.

One YouTube video does not proof of aliens make.
This band is great to see the heaviest convection...GOES Imager Spectral Difference
Apr. 26, 2012 - 16:45 UTC
Quoting LargoFl:
Serious question..if this DID happen, would I..then be living is South America, because the globe would Have to flip would it not??....alot of smart people in here, maybe get a good answer...................2012 is a significant year from an historical and astronomical perspective. According to astronomers the Poles of our Sun will reverse towards the end of 2012. Under the right conditions this could have a serious knock-on effect on Earth. A sudden twist in the orientation of the Sun’s poles could also reverse the Earth’s poles as well.


Watched Secrets of the Sun last night, the sun's magnetic field switches about every 11 years. Why would this one be special from all the previous ones?
71 Cotillion: Suspected tornadoes have struck two areas of England...

What did one tornado say to the other?
"Toto... I have a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore."
Quoting LargoFl:
The Last hurricane to directly the Tampa bay was in 1921.........................Link


Wow, quite the tale of the school children! I couldn't imagine. Glad you posted this. Rare though they might be, they do hit that part of Florida. The more awareness the better.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If there is any sort of alien life in the solar system right now, it's either:

A. Bacteria or maybe small bug size creatures on Mars
B. Bacteria or fish-like creatures on Europa
C. Some sort of weird extremophile on any of the other planets or moons.

It's not orbiting the sun or building temples on Mars or Mercury, and they are not flying in and out of our atmosphere at will unnoticed, because someone would have said something by now if the government had a cover up of this size. If they can't even hide a scandal in the Secret Service, they can't hide proof of aliens. All these conspiracy theorists need to take off the tinfoil hats and get back to reality.

One YouTube video does not proof of aliens make.
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?
NASA has verified that there is now positive magnetism energy appearing in the south pole, which is normally supposed to be in the north pole only. The South pole is supposed to only have a negative magnetic charge. In the past 150 years, there has been a migration between the north and south poles and their respective magnetic charges of positive and negative magnetic reversal. Another thing that NASA has observed is that the sun literally reverses its poles every 11 years at the peak of each sunspot cycle. The solar pole shift will happen again in 2012 exactly. There is some concern about the extra solar activity that will be happening in the sun during this cycle, solar cycle 24, but there is some comfort in the fact that 2012 is just another normal time for the solar cycle to happen. It is natural.
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?


That's what I think happened. Some comet with bacteria on it went in the ocean and some survived and thrived. Now here we are today.
Quoting OrchidGrower:



I believe "thinking outside the box" may indeed be what's needed here. There are trees that produce an inferior grade of wood but which grow phenomenally quickly, several feet a year (a few which even grow metres per year). Many are invasives and should normally never be considered for deliberate plantings. But one could argue the Haitian situation is so dire, even hillsides full of eucalyptus or leucaena trees would be better than hills of flowing mud every rainy season.


They would still cut these down for firewood. They need alternative energy sources and a lot fewer people before they will quit stripping the environment.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's what I think happened. Some comet with bacteria on it went in the ocean and some survived and thrived. Now here we are today.


Where did the life on the comet come from?
105 LargoFl: NASA has verified [blah blah blah]

blog280comment273 Xyrus2000: Post links please. [emphasis mine]
Just based on your post, I would say at least some of the info is incorrect :
The sun doesn't really have any fixed poles. It has many poles and they move about quite frequently.
The poles on Earth are always moving as well. They don't change nearly as quickly as the sun, but they poles don't really stay fixed.
Pole reversals on Earth do happen but the take a long time to occur. They don't happen in the span of a year.
Also, even during a pole reversal sequence the Earth still has plenty of magnetic field. It's weakened to be sure, but it is still there, and it is more than enough to keep the planet adequately shielded.
And even if it went away entirely the Earth's relatively thick atmosphere would still provide protection.

[About the only modifier I would add is that if the magnetic field were to collapse completely for an extended period of time, atmospheric hydrogen (ionization-stripped out of water vapor) would be lost to space relatively quickly in terms of geological time, then the oxygen and nitrogen components would follow much more slowly.]
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?


Yes, yes, but where did the life on the asteroid come from? Random fragments of amino acids (from an asteroid or wherever) joining together, replicating, then making something as complex as friggin DNA to replicate itself perpetually is a pretty profound idea worthy of intense scrutiny. How did this happen? Why haven't other asteroids hit the earth with a different scheme for life? Is life innate in the universe (like the laws of physics in our galaxy)? IE- is this an inevitable occurance on life supporting planets with enough time or is this unique to our planet? This is THE profound question IMO though I have my "religious" ideas.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's what I think happened. Some comet with bacteria on it went in the ocean and some survived and thrived. Now here we are today.


This raises a few questions. Where did it come from? How did it get on the asteroid?

In my opinion life was created on earth due to a random sequence of events. Water was necessary to carry the formed amino acids and other building blocks of life. I like to think that this random sequencing has probably happened thousands of times in our galaxy. Bacterial life is probably abundant but intelligent life? I'd have to say it's extremely scarce at best. So many events must come together to allow life to thrive like it does here on the earth.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If there is any sort of alien life in the solar system right now, it's either:

A. Bacteria or maybe small bug size creatures on Mars
B. Bacteria or fish-like creatures on Europa
C. Some sort of weird extremophile on any of the other planets or moons.

It's not orbiting the sun or building temples on Mars or Mercury, and they are not flying in and out of our atmosphere at will unnoticed, because someone would have said something by now if the government had a cover up of this size. If they can't even hide a scandal in the Secret Service, they can't hide proof of aliens. All these conspiracy theorists need to take off the tinfoil hats and get back to reality.

One YouTube video does not proof of aliens make.



The secret service is out and about.
The governments of the world could cover up aliens.
You would never know a thing.
They would probably have secret monitoring systems on all people who knew about the programs related to extraterrestrial life and would probably also be authorized to use lethal force to prevent the dissemination of information.
If we find bacteria on another body in our solar system (ie: Europa, Mars, Titan) I think this is going to tell us for sure that life is exceptionally abundant in the cosmos.
Quoting SteveDa1:
If we find bacteria on another body in our solar system (ie: Europa, Mars, Titan) I think this is going to tell us for sure that life is exceptionally abundant in the cosmos.


there are so many places in the universe beyond where we know.
You never would know what is how may chances a random event would have.
An extremely rare event could still happen countless times if it gets enough chances.
(my religion aside)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Where did the life on the comet come from?


That, I can't tell you. Probably sore random combination of amino acids and proteins in a collision. I don't know.


I want to be a meteorologist, not a microbiologist...
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



The secret service is out and about.
The governments of the world could cover up aliens.
You would never know a thing.
They would probably have secret monitoring systems on all people who knew about the programs related to extraterrestrial life and would probably also be authorized to use lethal force to prevent the dissemination of information.

And in related news, sales of aluminum foil have skyrocketed, apparently in connection with the latest fashion trend only known as "tin foil hats".

Honestly tho... while it is good to contemplate the origins of life, without proof (EITHER WAY), what is the point?

Also, bear in mind that while DNA (or RNA) is required for life as we know it, who is to say there are not alternative methods of genetic storage? Or even genetic metabolism? Sulfur-based or Silicon-based metabolism, for example, instead of carbon-based. Look at the variety of what we know as "life" around us... who is to say that in a different environment, such as an ammonia atmosphere, an equally complex biosphere could form?
Quoting Grothar:

Is that the blob of the day?
Quoting jeffs713:

And in related news, sales of aluminum foil have skyrocketed, apparently in connection with the latest fashion trend only known as "tin foil hats".

Honestly tho... while it is good to contemplate the origins of life, without proof (EITHER WAY), what is the point?

Also, bear in mind that while DNA (or RNA) is required for life as we know it, who is to say there are not alternative methods of genetic storage? Or even genetic metabolism? Sulfur-based or Silicon-based metabolism, for example, instead of carbon-based. Look at the variety of what we know as "life" around us... who is to say that in a different environment, such as an ammonia atmosphere, an equally complex biosphere could form?
excellent point made there
Quoting Grothar:
gee that system is looking real good, but its getting sheered probably miss florida entirely
the Euro spins up something along the SC coast and takes it to bermuda.





Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Is that the blob of the day?


Hey, it's the best I could come up with at the moment. I am now contemplating where life came from. Right now I am looking at a bunch of jets flying over my house. I think they are getting ready for the air show. I really hate those things. Anyone else in Broward hearing them? They are really flying low.
Quoting SteveDa1:
If we find bacteria on another body in our solar system (ie: Europa, Mars, Titan) I think this is going to tell us for sure that life is exceptionally abundant in the cosmos.
yes i would agree with you there, if we find any life at all, just once out there...then we arent alone..never were, just did not know it...millions upon millions of planets out there..there would be a very high likelihood of it being out there, what form it would be in, that's anyone's guess
Quoting jeffs713:

And in related news, sales of aluminum foil have skyrocketed, apparently in connection with the latest fashion trend only known as "tin foil hats".

Honestly tho... while it is good to contemplate the origins of life, without proof (EITHER WAY), what is the point?

Also, bear in mind that while DNA (or RNA) is required for life as we know it, who is to say there are not alternative methods of genetic storage? Or even genetic metabolism? Sulfur-based or Silicon-based metabolism, for example, instead of carbon-based. Look at the variety of what we know as "life" around us... who is to say that in a different environment, such as an ammonia atmosphere, an equally complex biosphere could form?


The truth is.........nobody is allowed and will ever know.....ever, until your dead, when you cross into the next dimension, and we go there.....is a mystery that no one knows either. It's as if all life forms are on planet earth, think about it, from people to bacteria all on one planet. We may just be the first living things in the universe and it's up to us to move out into the cosmos to spread life. If we don't, then the whole process starts over, until that intelligent species succeeds.
Quoting LargoFl:
gee that system is looking real good, but its getting sheered probably miss florida entirely


Yep, there is a little shear in the area. But it still could drop a lot of rain over the Bahamas.

A cookie to the first person who writes "a copious amount of rain"


Quoting Grothar:

Just got tested for appendicitis, Having some major stomach issues this week, So what we got there?
127. wpb
New Spanish-Language NOAA Weather Radio Transmitter for South Florida now on the
We are receiving a copious amount of rain in the Turks and Caicos today... : )
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Where did the life on the comet come from?
actually Mars was in the distant past, better suited for life before it lost its water, which we do know was there..earth at the time was a molten planet and had been hit with a HUGE asteroid big enough to make a moon out of what was blasted away..mars was the place back then but something bad happened, all water was lost..even later on..earth was all water and no dry land..but something really amazing took place...what...we may never know
a copious amount of rain... may fall in the area of the Bahamas over the next week.
Things are staring to warm up a bit...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
We are receiving a copious amount of rain in the Turks and Caicos today... : )


Quoting LargoFl:
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?
Ballistic panspermia is a pretty wild idea, but it passes the small test, at least so far. It's humbling and awesome and almost poetically beautiful to consider the possibility that life on this planet arrived here by meteorite. Imagine: the presence of every living thing on Earth--the dinosaurs, sea-dwelling phytoplankton, you, your dog--could be nothing more than the result of random interstellar/interplanetary cross-contamination.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i would agree with you there, if we find any life at all, just once out there...then we arent alone..never were, just did not know it...millions upon millions of planets out there..there would be a very high likelihood of it being out there, what form it would be in, that's anyone's guess
Not mere "millions and millions", but millions of millions. There are more stars in the Universe than there are grains of sand on all the beaches on our planet, and it's estimated that the majority of stars are circled by multiple planets. While there's no empirical proof either way, it boggles the mind to think that this little provincial backwater planet was the sole winner of the life lottery. Or as the late, great Carl Sagan so eloquently put it: if we're the only life there is, it sure seems like an awful waste of space...
Quoting RitaEvac:


The truth is.........nobody is allowed and will ever know.....ever, until your dead, when you cross into the next dimension, and we go there.....is a mystery that no one knows either. It's as if all life forms are on planet earth, think about it, from people to bacteria all on one planet. We may just be the first living things in the universe and it's up to us to move out into the cosmos to spread life. If we don't, then the whole process starts over, until that intelligent species succeeds.
someone long ago told me pretty much the same thing.. we were and are, meant to expand out into the universe....then he really thought about what we are doing to THIS planet and said..we move out as a disease..planet destroyers....well now 2012, i read the newspapers and back in the 1950's he could have been right
Frankly I've never understood why some folks would prefer to think that an asteroid or comet could produce life more easily than the Earth. All of the various "explanations" for the hypothesis smell more of bad*fundamentalist religion -- "Life came from Above" -- than science via Occam'sRazor.

* I do distinguish between good and bad fundamentalism: a bad version doesn't make any sense, sometimes especially doesn't make any sense, even if one were to accept all of its tenets.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ballistic panspermia is a pretty wild idea, but it passes the small test, at least so far. It's humbling and awesome and almost poetically beautiful to consider the possibility that life on this planet arrived here by meteorite. Imagine: the presence of every living thing on Earth--the dinosaurs, sea-dwelling phytoplankton, you, your dog--could be nothing more than the result of random interstellar/interplanetary cross-contamination.
lol...amazing thought there
CIRA Total Precipitable Water
Apr. 26, 2012 - 16:24 UTC
Quoting Grothar:
"Goddam westerlies." -Blob
Quoting jeffs713:
a copious amount of rain... may fall in the area of the Bahamas over the next week.


Sorry, you were second


Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Just got tested for appendicitis, Having some major stomach issues this week, So what we got there?


From your description, I would assume some serious pain?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
"Goddam westerlies." -Blob


LOL. It's still early. This will be good practice for us to look up our old maps.
142. N3EG
Quoting LargoFl:
amazing when you think about it...where exactly..did the very FIRST..spark of life..come from? religion aside....maybe from an asteroid?


My theory: Alien visitors had lunch on a barren earth, and didn't clean up their mess. All life on earth originated from a moldy alien tuna fish sandwich.
Quoting aspectre:
Frankly I've never understood why some folks would prefer to think an asteroid could produce life more easily than the Earth. All of the various "explanations" for the hypothesis smell more of bad*fundamentalist religion -- "Life came from Above" -- than science via Occam'sRazor.

* I do distinguish between good and bad fundamentalism: the bad doesn't make any sense (maybe, especially doesn't make sense) even if one accepts all of their tenets.
at some point, millions of years ago, earth was..lifeless..then poof..it wasnt, religion aside..something huge happened...dont ever misunderstand me ok, i dont trust religion on this one point only..no human was alive when this event occurred, and religion itself, is written by man..im sorry i wrote this because i think religion itself, should not be in this blog, weather etc is the topic and i am sorry i brought this up..my apologies to everyone.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Watched Secrets of the Sun last night, the sun's magnetic field switches about every 11 years. Why would this one be special from all the previous ones?
The poles of the sun do reverse every 11 years, but the Earth's reversals occur sporadically and on average about 4-5 times every million years.

The sun reversing poles doesn't have too much affect on us (aside from massive solar flares), but if the Earth were to reverse poles in your lifetime, it would not be too fun.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Ballistic panspermia is a pretty wild idea, but it passes the small test, at least so far. It's humbling and awesome and almost poetically beautiful to consider the possibility that life on this planet arrived here by meteorite. Imagine: the presence of every living thing on Earth--the dinosaurs, sea-dwelling phytoplankton, you, your dog--could be nothing more than the result of random interstellar/interplanetary cross-contamination.
And that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip...:)...This is lengthy, but cool..



Strange Bacteria Thriving Two Miles Underground

Strange Bacteria Thriving Two Miles Underground
A Princeton-led research group has discovered an isolated community of bacteria nearly two miles underground that derives all of its energy from the decay of radioactive rocks rather than from sunlight. As per members of the team, the finding suggests life might exist in similarly extreme conditions even on other worlds.
The self-sustaining bacterial community, which thrives in nutrient-rich groundwater found near a South African gold mine, has been isolated from the Earth's surface for several million years. It represents the first group of microbes known to depend exclusively on geologically produced hydrogen and sulfur compounds for nourishment. The extreme conditions under which the bacteria live bear a resemblance to those of early Earth, potentially offering insights into the nature of organisms that lived long before our planet had an oxygen atmosphere.
The scientists, who hail from nine collaborating institutions, had to burrow 2.8 kilometers beneath our world's surface to find these unusual microbes, leading the researchers to their speculations that life could exist in similar circumstances elsewhere in the solar system.
"What really gets my juices flowing is the possibility of life below the surface of Mars," said Tullis Onstott, a Princeton University professor of geosciences and leader of the research team. "These bacteria have been cut off from the surface of the Earth for a number of millions of years, but have thrived in conditions most organisms would consider to be inhospitable to life. Could these bacterial communities sustain themselves no matter what happened on the surface? If so, it raises the possibility that organisms could survive even on planets whose surfaces have long since become lifeless."
Onstott's team published its results in the Oct. 20 issue of the journal Science. The research group includes first author Li-Hung Lin, who performed a number of of the analyses as a doctoral student at Princeton and then as a postdoctoral researcher at the Carnegie Institution.
"These bacteria are truly unique, in the purest sense of the word," said Lin, now at National Taiwan University. "We know how isolated the bacteria have been because analyses of the water that they live in showed that it's very old and hasn't been diluted by surface water. In addition, we observed that the hydrocarbons in the environment did not come from living organisms, as is usual, and that the source of the hydrogen needed for their respiration comes from the decomposition of water by radioactive decay of uranium, thorium and potassium".
Because the groundwater the team sampled to find the bacteria comes from several different sources, it remains difficult to determine specifically how long the bacteria have been isolated. The team estimates the time frame to be somewhere between three and 25 million years, implying that living things are even more adaptable than once thought.
"We know surprisingly little about the origin, evolution and limits for life on Earth," said biogeochemist Lisa Pratt, who led Indiana University Bloomington's contribution to the project. "Researchers are just beginning to study the diverse organisms living in the deepest parts of the ocean, and the rocky crust on Earth is virtually unexplored at depths more than half a kilometer below the surface. The organisms we describe in this paper live in a completely different world than the one we know at the surface".
That subterranean world, Onstott said, is a lightless pool of hot, pressurized salt water that stinks of sulfur and noxious gases humans would find unbreathable. But the newly discovered bacteria, which are distantly correlation to the Firmicutes division of microbes that exist near undersea hydrothermal vents, flourish there.
"The radiation allows for the production of lots of sulfur compounds that these bacteria can use as a high-energy source of food," Onstott said. "For them, it's like eating potato chips."
But the arrival of the research team brought one substance into the underground world that, though vital to human survival, proved fatal to the microbes -- air from the surface.
"These critters seems to have a real problem with being exposed to oxygen," Onstott said. "We can't seem to keep them alive after we sample them. But because this environment is so much like the early Earth, it gives us a handle on what kind of creatures might have existed before we had an oxygen atmosphere".

Onstott said that a number of hundreds of millions of years ago, some of the first bacteria on the planet may have thrived in similar conditions, and that the newly discovered microbes could shed light on research into the origins of life on Earth.
"These bacteria are probably close to the base of the tree for the bacterial domain of life," he said. "They might be genealogically quite ancient. To find out, we will need to compare them to other organisms such as Firmicutes and other such heat-loving creatures from deep sea vents or hot springs."
The research team is building a small laboratory 3.8 kilometers beneath the surface in the Witwatersrand region of South Africa to conduct further study of the newly discovered ecosystem, said Onstott, who hopes the findings will be of use when future space probes are sent to seek life on other planets.

"A big question for me is, how do these creatures sustain themselves?" Onstott said. "Has this one strain of bacteria evolved to possess all the characteristics it needs to survive on its own, or are they working with other species of bacteria? I'm sure they will have more surprises for us, and they may show us one day how and where to look for microbes elsewhere".

Other authors of this work include Johanna Lipmann-Pipke of GeoForschungsZentrum, Potsdam, Gera number of; Erik Boice of Indiana University; Barbara Sherwood Lollar of the University of Toronto; Eoin L. Brodie, Terry C. Hazen, Gary L. Andersen and Todd Z. DeSantis of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, Calif.; Duane P. Moser of the Desert Research Institute, Las Vegas; and Dave Kershaw of the Mponeng Mine, Anglo Gold, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Pratt and Onstott have collaborated for years as part of the Indiana-Princeton-Tennessee Astrobiology Institute (IPTAI), a NASA-funded research center focused on designing instruments and probes for life detection in rocks and deep groundwater on Earth during planning for subsurface exploration of Mars. IPTAI's recommendations to NASA will draw on findings discussed in the Science report.

Posted by: Janet Source
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......
this blog is reminding me of Mystery Science Theater
Quoting LargoFl:
at some point, millions of years ago, earth was..lifeless..then poof..it wasnt, religion aside..something huge happened...dont ever misunderstand me ok, i dont trust religion on this one point only..no human was alive when this event occurred, and religion itself, is written by man..im sorry i wrote this because i think religion itself, should not be in this blog, weather etc is the topic and i am sorry i brought this up..my apologies to everyone.
No apologies needed.  As for what happened in the past I think its great that we don't really know what happened per say.  It is that mystery of how and why that helps motivates us as a species to better ourselves.  The whole mystery of it I think gives us humans a concrete platform to spring off of to "think outside the box".  Which leads us to all sorts of great discoveries. :)  
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......

I notice that Grothar has been around a lot last two days.
I wonder if there is a Connection.... or a Presence, even.
Quoting pottery:

I notice that Grothar has been around a lot last two days.
I wonder if there is a Connection.... or a Presence, even.


I'm always here.
Quoting Grothar:


I'm always here.

Yes, but where did you come from?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
The poles of the sun do reverse every 11 years, but the Earth's reversals occur sporadically and on average about 4-5 times every million years.

The sun reversing poles doesn't have too much affect on us (aside from massive solar flares), but if the Earth were to reverse poles in your lifetime, it would not be too fun.


The Ask an Astrobiologist at NASA says:

There is no reason to expect a reversal of magnetic polarity any time soon, or to anticipate any bad effects on life when it does eventually happen

Question 10
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......



maybe because wisdom lacks quite significantly
Looks like a watch box for our area..
The clouds and rainy weather have migrated to the west, and left us under hot and sunny skies.
Temp 90F EDITED
Humidity 53%
Heat index 95F
Wind 12-14 mph east (which is nice)
Quoting Cotillion:
"Suspected tornadoes have struck two areas of England damaging buildings and uprooting trees.

Residents in Rugby in Warwickshire said a tornado had "ripped a path" through properties toppling a chimney stack and knocking down fences.

Meanwhile, more than 100 miles away, farm buildings were blown down killing 20 chickens near Halstead in Essex."

Link




Now that, is rather weird...
Quoting pottery:

Yes, but where did you come from?


From what I've been reading I assume on a comet. It was so long ago, I really don't remember.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Where did the life on the comet come from?



lol, its funny how rational thought dissolves when the subject of the origin of life is brought up, it fascinates me...
145 hydrus: [inre ballistic panspermia] that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip... :)

Then one would have to ask, what magical property does the "asteroid/comet/planet of life's origin" have that Earth doesn't have? ie Unless one can scientificly explain what that property is, what it does, and how it does it, one might as well call it magic.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Why have UFO's and Alien Life been so prevalent on the Blog for the last two days?..........Feel like I am watching the History Channel.......

It isn't exactly busy right now. I mean, we have a completely sheared blob in the southern Caribbean, a dearth of severe weather, and just an ongoing drought weather-wise. Boredom does weird things to blogs.
Models don't agree on the MJO in the next 2 weeks




ECMWF the last 90 days has been the most accurate day 8 onwards


Quoting Grothar:


From what I've been reading I assume on a comet. It was so long ago, I really don't remember.

I remember the Comet...
A lovely and pretty revolutionary commercial aircraft.
The 4 jet Engines were set into the wings.
Nice British engineering.
Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.
It started from post 94
Rainy Season is about 48 hours from starting in S FL. I wish we could get this going around C FL as it is dry again after last weekends rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012


.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RECENT GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SATURDAY
WITH AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AT THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS ALTHOUGH
THE EMPHASIS SHOULD STILL MAINLY BE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

BY SUNDAY THE GUIDANCE (TO VARYING DEGREES) CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WITH THE GFS SEEMINGLY AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FEATURE APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH EMPHASIS CONTINUING ON THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS
. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH
MOISTURE DECREASING A BIT AND WITH THAT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
I noticed the SPC took our area of the slight risk but it looks like they may have jumped the gun

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC155-SCC033-069-262045-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0025.120426T1958Z-120426T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BENNETTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MINTURN...
LITTLE ROCK...
ROWLAND...
PURVIS...
KEMPER...
FAIRMONT...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BENNETTSVILLE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3469 7953 3464 7947 3468 7942 3460 7883
3454 7886 3450 7885 3446 7890 3444 7896
3440 7897 3438 7901 3431 7904 3427 7911
3455 7982 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
3467 7986 3474 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 283DEG 45KT 3457 7958

$$

WEISS

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Models don't agree on the MJO in the next 2 weeks




ECMWF the last 90 days has been the most accurate day 8 onwards




Sigh, the US is performing the worst out of those... Poor NCEP.
Quoting ncstorm:
I noticed the SPC took our area of the slight risk but it looks like they may have jumped the gun

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NCC155-SCC033-069-262045-
/O.NEW.KILM.SV.W.0025.120426T1958Z-120426T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
358 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
DILLON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL MARLBORO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHERN ROBESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 357 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CLIO...OR 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
BENNETTSVILLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
MINTURN...
LITTLE ROCK...
ROWLAND...
PURVIS...
KEMPER...
FAIRMONT...

MORE DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AND AFFECT OTHER COMMUNITIES
IN THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BENNETTSVILLE
WITH THIS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...TAKE
IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3469 7953 3464 7947 3468 7942 3460 7883
3454 7886 3450 7885 3446 7890 3444 7896
3440 7897 3438 7901 3431 7904 3427 7911
3455 7982 3460 7981 3462 7978 3465 7982
3467 7986 3474 7987
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 283DEG 45KT 3457 7958

$$

WEISS


Warnings don't verify risk areas, reports do.
Quoting jeffs713:

It isn't exactly busy right now. I mean, we have a completely sheared blob in the southern Caribbean, a dearth of severe weather, and just an ongoing drought weather-wise. Boredom does weird things to blogs.


True......Plenty of other topics will pop up between now and the first real invest or next real weather maker.........I just hope we don't get too much 2012 lunacy, on the Blog anyway, if things start clicking too much Mother Nature wise over the next several months........ :)
It's looking like below average temperatures for most areas for the next 4-5 days but the CPC is pretty confident on a warm-up beyond then

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
OWSLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
NORTHEASTERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SANDGAP...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCKEE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
MACEDONIA...BRADSHAW...MCKEE AND ATKINSTOWN AROUND 415 PM EDT.
PRIVETT...TURKEY FOOT...NEW ZION AND GRAY HAWK AROUND 420 PM EDT.
MUMMIE...HERD...ZEKES POINT AND WILD DOG AROUND 425 PM EDT.
GREEN HALL...ELIAN AND NATHANTON AROUND 430 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE NEW ZION...
ALGER AND ARNETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 8428 3757 8411 3757 8402 3754 8390
3749 8383 3750 8374 3745 8355 3718 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 289DEG 29KT 3746 8402

$$

DUSTY
Just a note on the life thing.
A long time ago I saw a programme about a species of flies in Africa that can survive total dehydration, they simply stop living until water come back, then they come back to life.
Scientists got some of them and totally dehydrated them behold any natural level, kept them for a long time and when they put water on them they still survived.
We humans get stuck thinking about life from our point of view but its a lot tougher than us and can survive behold the limits of our imaginations.
Technically with that fly, when would you declare it dead?
Quoting RitaEvac:
UFO spaceship orbiting the sun, or a camera glitch?

I think that it is beyond any doubt that that is an alien spacecraft.

I, for one, welcome our new (presumably tentacled) overlords and wish to remind them how useful someone with my background can be to them.
Excerpt from Miami NHC Discussion

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Rainy Season is about 48 hours from starting in S FL. I wish we could get this going around C FL as it is dry again after last weekends rains.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012


.DISCUSSION...
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND A STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL BEGIN TO
CHANGE LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

RECENT GUIDANCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF AND EXTENDING INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS BY SATURDAY
WITH AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE AT THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS ALTHOUGH
THE EMPHASIS SHOULD STILL MAINLY BE THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND
INSTABILITY ANALYSIS INDICATE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOO.

BY SUNDAY THE GUIDANCE (TO VARYING DEGREES) CONTINUE TO HINT AT A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
WITH THE GFS SEEMINGLY AGGRESSIVE ON THIS FEATURE APPARENTLY THE
RESULT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH EMPHASIS CONTINUING ON THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS TIME THAT IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENDS UP BEING FARTHER WEST THAN FORECAST WITH ENHANCED UPWARD
MOTION FARTHER WEST THAN THE CONSENSUS IT COULD RESULT IN MUCH
GREATER CHANCES OF RAIN WITH A REAL POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING
RAINS DEVELOPING SOMETIME DURING THE WEEKEND. AS IT IS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
COMING DAYS
. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

AFTER MONDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH
MOISTURE DECREASING A BIT AND WITH THAT RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.



Currently there isn't much sign it will spread north into Central Florida, but its at least a good sign things are headed in the right direction. The problem is you can never be sure when the wet season will get going this time of year because we can head into one of these patterns where the heat and moisture starts building but sometimes an upper ridge can take control and suppress rain for 2 or 3 weeks instead of the rain pattern taking shape. I've seen some years where the rain does get going early and other years where it seems like it will but it just ends up being parched dry and hot beneath a powerful upper ridge until June.

The average rainfall for May is give or take, 3 to 4 inches depending on which part of Florida you live. My experience living here over the years is that the wet season either starts sometime in May or it ends up being extremely dry. The 2 possible events tend to average out to 3 or 4 inches. However in reality in May you should probably expect barely any rain, well below average, or above average rain. I've seen some year we get 6 to 10 inches for month of May and some years we struggle to even get 1 inch its so dry.


It is common though, for the rain season to start 3 or so weeks in South Florida before it does here. Climatologically speaking, the wet season in South Florida is May through October. Whereas in Central Florida its generally the last week of May through the first week of October
Speaking of rain chances for South Florida this weekend, they are bringing back the Air & Naval Show on Ft. Lauderdale Beach this weekend and my best Bud in Ft. Lauderdale just e-mailed me to let me know he is taking the day off tomorrow to lay on the beach and watch the "rehearsals". Might be a good idea because heavy rains could affect some of the fly-bys and other activities (the Blue Angels I think) on Sat and Sunday.
The Drake Equation



Description

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Sigh, the US is performing the worst out of those... Poor NCEP.


Let's see when GFS is upgraded on May 22nd, it performs better and takes the #1 spot as the best model from ECMWF.

Link
Quoting PlazaRed:
Just a note on the life thing.
A long time ago I saw a programme about a species of flies in Africa that can survive total dehydration, they simply stop living until water come back, then they come back to life.
Scientists got some of them and totally dehydrated them behold any natural level, kept them for a long time and when they put water on them they still survived.
We humans get stuck thinking about life from our point of view but its a lot tougher than us and can survive behold the limits of our imaginations.
Technically with that fly, when would you declare it dead?
When I squashed it and saw it's guts run out :)
Quoting Birthmark:

I think that it is beyond any doubt that that is an alien spacecraft.

I, for one, welcome our new (presumably tentacled) overlords and wish to remind them how useful someone with my background can be to them.

FOOD!
Quoting pottery:

I remember the Comet...
A lovely and pretty revolutionary commercial aircraft.
The 4 jet Engines were set into the wings.
Nice British engineering.
Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.


Lovely, but it crashed a lot.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Let's see when GFS is upgraded on May 22nd it performs better and take the #1 spot as the best model from ECMWF.

Link


Nope, better hope on next years upgrade. Of course, the ECMWF will not sit still, so it seems the GFS will be in perpetual catchup.
I wanna see the running loop of this

Quoting Jedkins01:



Currently there isn't much sign it will spread north into Central Florida, but its at least a good sign things are headed in the right direction. The problem is you can never be sure when the wet season will get going this time of year because we can head into one of these patterns where the heat and moisture starts building but sometimes an upper ridge can take control and suppress rain for 2 or 3 weeks instead of the rain pattern taking shape. I've seen some years where the rain does get going early and other years where it seems like it will but it just ends up being parched dry and hot beneath ap powerful upper ridge until June.

The average rainfall for May is give or take, 3 to 4 inches depending on which part of Florida you live. My experience living here over the years is that the wet season either starts sometime in May or it ends up being extremely dry. The 2 possible events tend to average out to 3 or 4 inches. However in reality in May you should probably expect barely any rain, well below average, or above average rain. I've seen some year we get 6 TO 10 inches for month of May and some years we struggle to even get 1 inch its so dry.


Yeah it doesn't look promising at the moment that this moisture will make it up to C FL but I agree it's promising that the models are picking up on daily showers for S FL starting the weekend. So one would guess it's just a matter of time before C FL gets involved. A famous forecaster said this below about S FL and rainfall for May.

S. Fla. Forecaster Suggests Link Between Hurricane Behavior, May Rainfall

Link
Quoting PlazaRed:

FOOD!
They're made out of meat
A dialogue by Terry Bisson. From a series of stories entitled "Alien/Nation" in the April issue of Omni.

"They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"Meat. They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"There's no doubt about it. We picked several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, probed them all the through. They're completely meat."

"That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars."

"They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."

"So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact."

"They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines."

"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."

"I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in the sector and they're made out of meat."

"Maybe they're like the orfolei. You know, a carbon-based intelligence that goes through a meat stage."

"Nope. They're born meat and they die meat. We studied them for several of their life spams, which didn't take too long. Do you have any idea the life spam of meat?"

"Spare me. Okay, maybe they're only part meat. You know, like the weddilei. A meat head with an electron plamsa brain inside."

"Nope. We thought of that, since they do have meat heads like the weddilei. But I told you, we probed them. They're meat all the way through."

"No brain?"

"Oh, there is a brain all right. It's just that the brain is made out of meat!"

"So... what does the thinking?"

"You're not understanding, are you? The brain does the thinking. The meat."

"Thinking meat! You're asking me to believe in thinking meat!"

"Yes, thinking meat! Conscious meat! Loving meat. Dreaming meat. The meat is the whole deal! Are you getting the picture?"

"Omigod. You're serious then. They're made out of meat."

"Finally. Yes, they are indeed made out meat. And they've been trying to get in touch with us for almost a hundred of their years."

"So what does the meat have in mind."

"First it wants to talk to us. Then I imagine it wants to explore the universe, contact other sentients, swap ideas and information. The usual."

"We're supposed to talk to meat?"

"That's the idea. That's the message they're sending out by radio. 'Hello. Anyone out there? Anyone home?' That sort of thing."

"They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"

"Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."

"I thought you just told me they used radio."

"They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds. You know how when you slap or flap meat it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air through their meat."

"Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"

"Officially or unofficially?"

"Both."

"Officially, we are required to contact, welcome, and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in the quadrant, without prejudice, fear, or favor. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the reconds and forget the whole thing."

"I was hoping you would say that."

"It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"

"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say?" `Hello, meat. How's it going?' But will this work? How many planets are we dealing with here?"

"Just one. They can travel to other planets in special meat containers, but they can't live on them. And being meat, they only travel through C-space. which limits them to the speed of light and makes the possibility of their ever making contact pretty slim. Infinitesimal, in fact."

"So we just pretend there's no one home in the universe."

"That's it."

"Cruel. But you said it yourself, who wants to meet meat? And the ones who have been aboard our vessels, the ones you have probed? You're sure they won't remember?"

"They'll be considered crackpots if they do. We went into their heads and smoothed out their meat so that we're just a dream to them."

"A dream to meat! How strangely appropiate, that we should be meat's dream."

"And we can mark this sector unoccupied."

"Good. Agreed, officially and unofficially. Case closed. Any others? Anyone interesting on that side of the galaxy?"

"Yes, a rather shy but sweet hydrogen core cluster intelligence in a class nine star in G445 zone. Was in contact two galactic rotation ago, wants to be friendly again."

"They always come around."

"And why not? Imagine how unbearably, how unutterably cold the universe would be if one were all alone."
Quoting kwgirl:
When I squashed it and saw it's guts run out :)

That's not fair, and neither is fly spry, chameleons, spiders or any other types of fly death machines as they wouldn't be as they all die or their operators do, in the absence of water. So there!
Quoting pottery:

I remember the Comet...
A lovely and pretty revolutionary commercial aircraft.
The 4 jet Engines were set into the wings.
Nice British engineering.
Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.


Was the world's first production commercial jet airliner.

Link

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Warnings don't verify risk areas, reports do.


if thats the case, why put a slight risk on anyone if the storm hasnt even initiated yet? You cant verify a risk before a storm happens?
Quoting ncstorm:


if thats the case, why put a slight risk on anyone if the storm hasnt even initiated yet? You cant verify a risk before a storm happens?

To get the word out. Once storms initiate, that's when the outlooks become adjusted and increase in accuracy.
Quoting PlazaRed:

That's not fair, and neither is fly spry, chameleons, spiders or any other types of fly death machines as they wouldn't be as they all die or their operators do, in the absence of water. So there!
Whenever I kill a bug, I want to make sure it is dead. The only way is to see the guts. Ever try killing a scorpion? I wouldn't try it! When they get in the house, I capture them and throw them outside where they belong. Tried squashing one once and it wouldn't squash.
Quoting Patrap:
The Drake Equation



Description

The Drake Equation was developed by Frank Drake in 1961 as a way to focus on the factors which determine how many intelligent, communicating civilizations there are in our galaxy. The Drake Equation is:

N = N* fp ne fl fi fc fL

Great post Pat. I first saw it in Carl Sagan,s book Cosmos. It is very realistic, and certainly shows how very "unlikely" it is that we are alone in the Universe or even our galaxy.
We got some tornado warnings here!


The National Weather Service in Jackson KY has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
north central Clay County in southeast Kentucky...
Jackson County in southeast Kentucky...
Owsley County in southeast Kentucky...
northeastern Rockcastle County in south central Kentucky...

* until 500 PM EDT

* at 401 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado. This dangerous
storm was located near Sandgap... or 7 miles northwest of McKee...
and moving east at 35 mph.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Macedonia... Bradshaw... McKee and Atkinstown around 415 PM EDT.
Privett... Turkey Foot... New Zion and Gray Hawk around 420 PM EDT.
Mummie... herd... Zekes Point and wild dog around 425 PM EDT.
Green Hall... elian and nathanton around 430 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this dangerous storm include New Zion...
Alger and Arnett.

Quoting jeffs713:
They're made out of meat
A dialogue by Terry Bisson. From a series of stories entitled "Alien/Nation" in the April issue of Omni.

"They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"Meat. They're made out of meat."

"Meat?"

"There's no doubt about it. We picked several from different parts of the planet, took them aboard our recon vessels, probed them all the through. They're completely meat."

"That's impossible. What about the radio signals? The messages to the stars."

"They use the radio waves to talk, but the signals don't come from them. The signals come from machines."

"So who made the machines? That's who we want to contact."

"They made the machines. That's what I'm trying to tell you. Meat made the machines."

"That's ridiculous. How can meat make a machine? You're asking me to believe in sentient meat."

"I'm not asking you, I'm telling you. These creatures are the only sentient race in the sector and they're made out of meat."

"Maybe they're like the orfolei. You know, a carbon-based intelligence that goes through a meat stage."

"Nope. They're born meat and they die meat. We studied them for several of their life spams, which didn't take too long. Do you have any idea the life spam of meat?"

"Spare me. Okay, maybe they're only part meat. You know, like the weddilei. A meat head with an electron plamsa brain inside."

"Nope. We thought of that, since they do have meat heads like the weddilei. But I told you, we probed them. They're meat all the way through."

"No brain?"

"Oh, there is a brain all right. It's just that the brain is made out of meat!"

"So... what does the thinking?"

"You're not understanding, are you? The brain does the thinking. The meat."

"Thinking meat! You're asking me to believe in thinking meat!"

"Yes, thinking meat! Conscious meat! Loving meat. Dreaming meat. The meat is the whole deal! Are you getting the picture?"

"Omigod. You're serious then. They're made out of meat."

"Finally. Yes, they are indeed made out meat. And they've been trying to get in touch with us for almost a hundred of their years."

"So what does the meat have in mind."

"First it wants to talk to us. Then I imagine it wants to explore the universe, contact other sentients, swap ideas and information. The usual."

"We're supposed to talk to meat?"

"That's the idea. That's the message they're sending out by radio. 'Hello. Anyone out there? Anyone home?' That sort of thing."

"They actually do talk, then. They use words, ideas, concepts?"

"Oh, yes. Except they do it with meat."

"I thought you just told me they used radio."

"They do, but what do you think is on the radio? Meat sounds. You know how when you slap or flap meat it makes a noise? They talk by flapping their meat at each other. They can even sing by squirting air through their meat."

"Omigod. Singing meat. This is altogether too much. So what do you advise?"

"Officially or unofficially?"

"Both."

"Officially, we are required to contact, welcome, and log in any and all sentient races or multibeings in the quadrant, without prejudice, fear, or favor. Unofficially, I advise that we erase the reconds and forget the whole thing."

"I was hoping you would say that."

"It seems harsh, but there is a limit. Do we really want to make contact with meat?"

"I agree one hundred percent. What's there to say?" `Hello, meat. How's it going?' But will this work? How many planets are we dealing with here?"

"Just one. They can travel to other planets in special meat containers, but they can't live on them. And being meat, they only travel through C-space. which limits them to the speed of light and makes the possibility of their ever making contact pretty slim. Infinitesimal, in fact."

"So we just pretend there's no one home in the universe."

"That's it."

"Cruel. But you said it yourself, who wants to meet meat? And the ones who have been aboard our vessels, the ones you have probed? You're sure they won't remember?"

"They'll be considered crackpots if they do. We went into their heads and smoothed out their meat so that we're just a dream to them."

"A dream to meat! How strangely appropiate, that we should be meat's dream."

"And we can mark this sector unoccupied."

"Good. Agreed, officially and unofficially. Case closed. Any others? Anyone interesting on that side of the galaxy?"

"Yes, a rather shy but sweet hydrogen core cluster intelligence in a class nine star in G445 zone. Was in contact two galactic rotation ago, wants to be friendly again."

"They always come around."

"And why not? Imagine how unbearably, how unutterably cold the universe would be if one were all alone."
Now I know why they haven't been back. Took all the experiments they needed and left :( LOL Toooo funny!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To get the word out. Once storms initiate, that's when the outlooks become adjusted and increase in accuracy.


This ones for you.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I wanna see the running loop of this



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To get the word out. Once storms initiate, that's when the outlooks become adjusted and increase in accuracy.


well my saying was that the outlook was increased this morning and then at the afternoon outlook they took us out of the slight risk area..all of NC was in the yellow earlier and now we are not

Quoting aspectre:
145 hydrus: [inre ballistic panspermia] that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip... :)

Then one would have to ask, what magical property does the "asteroid/comet/planet of life's origin" have that Earth doesn't have? ie Unless one can scientificly explain what that property is, what it does, and how it does it, one might as well call it magic.
But then one could apply that same logic to anything not thoroughly understood, no?

Anyway, I wasn't saying ballistic panspermia seeded Earth; I'm merely noting that it's entirely within the realm of reason and possibility, and it's a premise that is nowhere close to rejection. And that, to me, makes in interesting.
Quoting kwgirl:
Whenever I kill a bug, I want to make sure it is dead. The only way is to see the guts. Ever try killing a scorpion? I wouldn't try it! When they get in the house, I capture them and throw them outside where they belong. Tried squashing one once and it wouldn't squash.

Get Chickens!
They bit off the stinger with their beaks and then eat them.
Scorpions do respond quite negatively to being stabbed with a stick but I got stung by one once and it hurt like you cant belive for about 5 days worse than 20 wasp stings at the same time and Ive had them as well.
Quoting aspectre:
145 hydrus: [inre ballistic panspermia] that meteor had to come from somewhere where there was or is life. If that was proven to be the case, I would guess our galaxy and the universe is not only brimming with life, but that certain microbes and other lifeforms can survive not only the longtime trip through space, but survive re-entry and possibly the impact with the Earth...We have tough life forms right here on the planet that might survive such a trip... :)

Then one would have to ask, what magical property does the "asteroid/comet/planet of life's origin" have that Earth doesn't have? ie Unless one can scientificly explain what that property is, what it does, and how it does it, one might as well call it magic.
I was thinking along the lines of a planet that has lifeforms, is struck by a large asteroid, and that blasts whatever microbes it has out into space, eventually lands somewhere that can sustain life..It does seem like an extreme longshot, but with God anythings possible right.?...:)
Quoting PlazaRed:

FOOD!

I'm too gamey...maybe good for sausage.

What? It's a weather blog? Okay, then. Pea-sized hail in beautiful Murphy NC 10am EDT, 04/26/2012.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah it doesn't look promising at the moment that this moisture will make it up to C FL but I agree it's promising that the models are picking up on daily showers for S FL starting the weekend. So one would guess it's just a matter of time before C FL gets involved. A famous forecaster said this below about S FL and rainfall for May.

S. Fla. Forecaster Suggests Link Between Hurricane Behavior, May Rainfall

Link



Interesting, I'm actually quite familiar with that study :)
163 pottery: ...Nice British engineering. Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.

The B-52 may be the best bomber, and the B-29 may be the prettiest... but the Vulcan was and will forever remain the maximum utmost in COOL.
Always lived close enough to AirForce bases that I saw military airshows nearly every year. Whether I wanted to or not (I guess I coulda hid, but otherwise...)
And remained unimpressed at the various flybys and demonstrations from toddlerhood onward...
...until I saw the barn-high extremely low-speed flyby of a Vulcan sitting on its tail.
"Float like a butterfly, and sting like a bee."
Quoting aspectre:
163 pottery: Nice British engineering. Around the same time as the Vulcan, which was a bomber.

The B-52 may be the best bomber, and the B-29 may be the prettiest, but the Vulcan was, is, and will forever remain the maximum in COOL.
Always lived close enough to AirForce bases that I saw military airshows nearly every year. Whether I wanted to or not (I guess I coulda hid, but otherwise...)
And remained unimpressed at the various flybys and demonstrations from toddlerhood onward...
...until I saw the hangar-high extremely low-speed flyby of a Vulcan sitting on its tail.


Quoting hydrus:
There are a number of reasons why Haiti has so many deadly events, but here is what happens to them on a fairly regular basis.....
Timeline of Haiti's natural disasters

Some of the worst natural disasters to batter Haiti:

_ 1770: Strong earthquake devastates Port-au-Prince in then French colony.

_ 1842: Earthquake destroys Cap-Haitien and other cities in northern Haiti and Dominican Republic.

_ 1935: Unnamed storm kills more than 2,000 in Haiti before moving on to Florida as hurricane, where 400 die.

_ 1946: Magnitude-8.1 quake strikes Dominican Republic and Haiti, causing tsunami that kills 1,790 people.

_ 1954: Hurricane Hazel kills hundreds in Haiti.

_ 1963: Hurricane Flora leaves more than 6,000 dead in Haiti and Cuba.

_ 1994: Hurricane Gordon blamed for hundreds of deaths in Haiti.

_ 1998: Hurricane Georges destroys 80 percent of Haiti's crops while killing more than 400.

_ May 2004: Three days of heavy rains cause floods that kill more than 2,600.

_ September 2004: Tropical Storm Jeanne causes flooding and landslides that kill 1,900 and leave 200,000 homeless in Gonaives, Haiti's third-largest city.

_ October 2007: Tropical Storm Noel triggers mudslides and floods, killing at least 57 Haitians.

_ August and September 2008: Three hurricanes and tropical storm kill some 800 in Haiti, devastate crops and cause $1 billion in damage.

_ January 12, 2010: Magnitude-7.0 quake levels buildings in Port-Au-Prince, raising fears of tens of thousands of deaths.

Sources: Associated Press archives, US Geological Survey.

I wonder why Gordon and Hanna weren't retired.
Hanna killed at least 530 while Gordon killed almost 1,150. (1,147 to be exact)
I mean, despite the fact that Haiti is a poor country, they should of been retired because if a storm kills that much people it's really mind-numbing.

I am planning to watch The Weather Channel for the remainder of the afternoon/evening (as usual). I believe you guys should to. They have continuing coverage of the 2011 Super Outbreak: 1 year later. Jim Cantore is stationed in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
449 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

KYC051-109-189-262100-
/O.CON.KJKL.TO.W.0040.000000T0000Z-120426T2100Z/
JACKSON KY-OWSLEY KY-CLAY KY-
449 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL CLAY...
OWSLEY AND EASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 448 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS NEAR ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY
COUNTY REPORTED A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR SEBASTIAN...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF BOONEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

THE DEVELOPING TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MISTLETOE...LUCKY FORK...BRUTUS AND BARCREEK AROUND 455 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADO INCLUDE ARNETT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 8399 3754 8390 3749 8383 3749 8380
3749 8374 3745 8355 3718 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 289DEG 29KT 3736 8366

$$

BECKER
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, you were second



Wrong move, this guy's mad at ya.

See, he took your cookie.
Quoting Birthmark:

I'm too gamey...maybe good for sausage.

What? It's a weather blog? Okay, then. Pea-sized hail in beautiful Murphy NC 10am EDT, 04/26/2012.

Sometimes, just sometimes, I sit here and wonder what the morning shift of "Admin," must think when they read some of the stuff that got posted overnight.
I mean last night we had an overcombed golf course builder demanding windmills be put to the axe etc. (a few hours on and off.) Today we have space invaders and asteroid hitch hiking microbes. All it stared with was high temps in Texas. Whoever knows what would happen if there was a blog on primeval soup caused by storm lightning action.
Maybe "Admin," could give some feed back on their most hilarious read ups?
Sometimes I laugh so much, I have to turn the computer off!
FROM THE ASHES OF THE PAST
WE SHALL FORGE A NEW FUTURE AS ONE
Not forgetting this anytime soon. What a terrifying scene.
Quoting Articuno:

Wrong move, this guy's mad at ya.

See, he took your cookie.


Quoting Articuno:

I wonder why Gordon and Hanna weren't retired.
Hanna killed at least 530 while Gordon killed almost 1,150. (1,147 to be exact)
I mean, despite the fact that Haiti is a poor country, they should of been retired because if a storm kills that much people it's really mind-numbing.

I asked myself that same question numerous times. Nasty cell south of bowling green...
Good afternoon all...it has been a rainy day here in Jamaica
Quoting Articuno:

Wrong move, this guy's mad at ya.

See, he took your cookie.
This is great.:)
Mean looking storm...

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Mean looking storm...


Don't want to be alarmist and someone correct me if I'm wrong but the new frame looks even worse and I may see a debris ball
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't want to be alarmist and someone correct me if I'm wrong but the new frame looks even worse and I may see a debris ball


There has been funnel clouds confirmed infact one was worded as a huge wall cloud. Nothing confirmed on the ground yet though.
Quoting nigel20:
Good afternoon all...it has been a rainy day here in Jamaica


Good afternoon Nigel. Do you know how much rain fell today in Kingston? Is the radar still not working there?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


There has been funnel clouds confirmed infact one was worded as a huge wall cloud. Nothing confirmed on the ground yet though.

Thanks for the info... The debris ball like feature isn't there anymore but the storm is still strong
California Meteorite: Space Rocks Found By Collector May Date To Early Solar System
By SCOTT SONNER 04/26/12 07:58 AM ET


RENO, Nev. -- Robert Ward has been hunting and collecting meteorites for more than 20 years, so he knew he'd found something special in the Sierra foothills along the path of a flaming fireball that shook parts of Northern California and Nevada with a sonic boom over the weekend.

And scientists have confirmed his suspicions: it's one of the more primitive types of space rocks out there, dating to the early formation of the solar system 4 to 5 billion years ago.

"It was just, needless to say, a thrilling moment," Ward of Prescott, Ariz., told The Associated Press in a telephone interview Wednesday as he walked through an old cemetery in search of more meteorites about 35 miles northeast of Sacramento.

He found the first piece on Tuesday along a road between a baseball field and park on the edge of Lotus near Coloma, where James W. Marshall first discovered gold in California, at Sutter's Mill in 1848.

Ward, who has found meteorites in every continent but Antarctica and goes by "AstroBob" on his website, said he "instantly knew" it was a rare meteorite known as "CM" – carbonaceous chondrite – based in part on the "fusion crusts from atmospheric entry" on one side of the rock.

"It is one of the oldest things known to man and one of the rarest types of meteorites there is," he said. "It contains amino acids and organic compounds that are extremely important to science."

Ward actually has two rocks but suspects they were part of the same small meteorite that broke on impact. Each weighs about 10 grams – about the same as two nickels. He said his only previous finds that rival this one were three lunar meteorites he found years ago in the Middle East.

Experts say the flaming meteor was probably about the size of a minivan when it entered the Earth's atmosphere with a loud boom and about one-third of the explosive force of the atomic bomb. It was seen from Sacramento, Calif., to Las Vegas and parts of northern Nevada.

An event of that size might happen once a year around the world, said Don Yeomans of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "But most of them occur over the ocean or an uninhabited area, he said.


"Getting to see one is something special," he said. He added, "most meteors you see in the night's sky are the size of tiny stones or even grains of sand, and their trail lasts all of a second or two."

The meteor probably weighed about 154,300 pounds, said Bill Cooke, a specialist in meteors at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. At the time of disintegration, he said, it probably released energy equivalent to a 5-kiloton explosion – the Hiroshima bomb was 15 kilotons.

"You don't often have kiloton rocks flying over your head," he said.

The boom, another expert said, was caused by the speed with which the space rock entered the atmosphere. Meteorites enter Earth's upper atmosphere at somewhere between 22,000 mph and 44,000 mph – faster than the speed of sound, thus creating a sonic boom.

The friction between the rock and the air is so intense that "it doesn't even burn it up, it vaporizes," said Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planet Center at Harvard University.

John T. Wasson, a longtime professor and expert in meteorites at UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, said he understood that in addition to Lotus, another small meteorite had been in nearby Coloma,

Bits of the meteor could be strewn over an area as long as 10 miles, most likely stretching west from Coloma, he said.

"I'm sure more will be found, I'm hoping, including some fairly big pieces," Wasson said. "The fact that two pieces already have been found means one knows where to look."

Wasson suspected hundreds of dealers and collectors already have joined the search. He said it was important to recover the meteorites soon because any rain will cause them to degrade, losing their sodium and potassium.

"From my viewpoint as a meteorite researcher," he said, "I'm hopeful some big pieces are found right away."

Yeomens confirmed this type of meteorite is one of the oldest, dating to the origin of the solar system 4 to 5 billion years ago. And it's "actually kind of unusual," he said.

Yeomens said it's got two of the most important chemicals that scientists look for: carbon and a form of water. In fact, this type of space rock is likely full of water and would have made a good candidate for the new space company announced Tuesday that plans to mine asteroids, he said.

"And this one landed in their backyard for a lot less than they planned to spend," he said.

The mini-van sized asteroid wasn't on NASA's lengthy list of near Earth objects that they track coming close to the planet, so it took scientists by surprise. "There are millions of objects of that size that we don't know about," he said. "They're too small to image unless they're right up on top of you."

___

AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein contributed to this story from Washington, D.C.
Quoting nigel20:


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good afternoon Nigel. Do you know how much rain fell today in Kingston? Is the radar still not working there?

Good afternoon Tropicsweather, it's being updated...hopefully it will be back up ASAP
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Don't want to be alarmist and someone correct me if I'm wrong but the new frame looks even worse and I may see a debris ball

It's not, velocities aren't good enough.

Probably not even a tornado on the ground right now.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's not, velocities aren't good enough.

Probably not even a tornado on the ground right now.

This was the frame I thought I saw the debris ball in... What do you think?





...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CLAY...CENTRAL PERRY...
SOUTHERN OWSLEY AND LESLIE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 521 PM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD
. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPURLOCK...OR
9 MILES EAST OF MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE DEVELOPING TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
BEAR BRANCH...SIZEROCK...MARCUM AND BUCKHORN LAKE S.P. AROUND 540
PM EDT.
HOSEA...THOUSANDSTICKS...CREEKVILLE AND ESSIE AROUND 545 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3691 8350 3694 8351 3695 8357 3720 8395
3721 8394 3725 8394 3726 8390 3731 8388
3734 8378 3742 8383 3736 8354 3733 8355
3735 8349 3729 8317 3688 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 296DEG 27KT 3719 8358

$$
BECKER
Quoting hydrus:

whats up hydrus?
Quoting Ameister12:
Not forgetting this anytime soon. What a terrifying scene.

Here in Sweden, I watched CBS 42 live broadcast with Mark Prater that day. He did an amazing job and I am so impressed by him.



Mark's interview the day after
Never forget.

So, we came from unintelligent muck. It is a scientific impossibility to get intelligent life from unintelligent life. To have intelligent life there must be a life giver........aka God. How can complexity arise naturally out of simplicity, and order out of disorder? Nothing like this is observed to happen in the real world. Real processes always go, if left to do what comes naturally, in the direction of greater disorder and randomness. How can the appearance of design be produced without the reality of design?
In spite of the great number and variety of scientific processes, there are two statements that can be made about all of them without exception. These are:
1. All processes involve interchanges and conversions of an entity called energy, with the total energy remaining constant. Scientifically this is called the law of conservation of energy, or the First Law of Thermodynamics. 2. All processes manifest a tendency toward decay and disintegration, with a net increase in what is called the entropy, or state of randomness or disorder, of the system. This is called the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Thus all the processes of nature are fundamentally processes of quantitative conservation and qualitative disintegration. These two laws, accepted by all scientists as the most universally-applicable principles which science has been able to discover. Now the imagined age-long evolutionary growth of the whole world of organisms has neither program to direct it nor mechanism to empower it. Neither mutation nor natural selection is a program, and neither mutation nor natural selection is an energy conversion device. Neither one is either one. To offset the Second Law, and produce true evolution, evolutionists need still to find a directing code and enabling mechanism, and neither of these has yet been discovered.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Currently there isn't much sign it will spread north into Central Florida, but its at least a good sign things are headed in the right direction. The problem is you can never be sure when the wet season will get going this time of year because we can head into one of these patterns where the heat and moisture starts building but sometimes an upper ridge can take control and suppress rain for 2 or 3 weeks instead of the rain pattern taking shape. I've seen some years where the rain does get going early and other years where it seems like it will but it just ends up being parched dry and hot beneath a powerful upper ridge until June.

The average rainfall for May is give or take, 3 to 4 inches depending on which part of Florida you live. My experience living here over the years is that the wet season either starts sometime in May or it ends up being extremely dry. The 2 possible events tend to average out to 3 or 4 inches. However in reality in May you should probably expect barely any rain, well below average, or above average rain. I've seen some year we get 6 to 10 inches for month of May and some years we struggle to even get 1 inch its so dry.


It is common though, for the rain season to start 3 or so weeks in South Florida before it does here. Climatologically speaking, the wet season in South Florida is May through October. Whereas in Central Florida its generally the last week of May through the first week of October


Yeah...It appears after the trough drifts northeastwards past the Bahama's by Next week a strong ridge is expected do develop over the Peninsula in it's wake with most models forecasting hot and dry weather thereafter(though the GFS has possible coastal sprinkles south of the Cape).
Quoting Tribucanes:
So, we came from unintelligent muck. It is a scientific impossibility to get intelligent life from unintelligent life. To have intelligent life there must be a life giver........aka God. How can complexity arise naturally out of simplicity, and order out of disorder? Nothing like this is observed to happen in the real world. Real processes always go, if left to do what comes naturally, in the direction of greater disorder and randomness. How can the appearance of design be produced without the reality of design?
In spite of the great number and variety of scientific processes, there are two statements that can be made about all of them without exception. These are:
1. All processes involve interchanges and conversions of an entity called energy, with the total energy remaining constant. Scientifically this is called the law of conservation of energy, or the First Law of Thermodynamics. 2. All processes manifest a tendency toward decay and disintegration, with a net increase in what is called the entropy, or state of randomness or disorder, of the system. This is called the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Thus all the processes of nature are fundamentally processes of quantitative conservation and qualitative disintegration. These two laws, accepted by all scientists as the most universally-applicable principles which science has been able to discover. Now the imagined age-long evolutionary growth of the whole world of organisms has neither program to direct it nor mechanism to empower it. Neither mutation nor natural selection is a program, and neither mutation nor natural selection is an energy conversion device. Neither one is either one. To offset the Second Law, and produce true evolution, evolutionists need still to find a directing code and enabling mechanism, and neither of these has yet been discovered.
This is what I'm talking about right here. OFF TOPIC. This topic is fine but what does it have to do with weather?
you've got to listen to hear
Quoting Tribucanes:
So, we came from unintelligent muck. It is a scientific impossibility to get intelligent life from unintelligent life. To have intelligent life there must be a life giver........aka God. How can complexity arise naturally out of simplicity, and order out of disorder? Nothing like this is observed to happen in the real world. Real processes always go, if left to do what comes naturally, in the direction of greater disorder and randomness. How can the appearance of design be produced without the reality of design?
In spite of the great number and variety of scientific processes, there are two statements that can be made about all of them without exception. These are:
1. All processes involve interchanges and conversions of an entity called energy, with the total energy remaining constant. Scientifically this is called the law of conservation of energy, or the First Law of Thermodynamics. 2. All processes manifest a tendency toward decay and disintegration, with a net increase in what is called the entropy, or state of randomness or disorder, of the system. This is called the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Thus all the processes of nature are fundamentally processes of quantitative conservation and qualitative disintegration. These two laws, accepted by all scientists as the most universally-applicable principles which science has been able to discover. Now the imagined age-long evolutionary growth of the whole world of organisms has neither program to direct it nor mechanism to empower it. Neither mutation nor natural selection is a program, and neither mutation nor natural selection is an energy conversion device. Neither one is either one. To offset the Second Law, and produce true evolution, evolutionists need still to find a directing code and enabling mechanism, and neither of these has yet been discovered.


When it Rains it will Pour--Otherwise, Tough Luck

Ocean floats provide yet more evidence of global warming, revealing that rainy regions are getting wetter and dry regions drier much faster than predicted

By David Biello | April 26, 2012. | 3

Around 3,500 robotic buoys have been deployed throughout the world's oceans, delivering unprecedented data on temperature, salinity and other measures.


Warmer air allows for more water vapor. So scientists have long predicted that global warming will result in a more intense water cycle - the process by which water evaporates from the oceans, travels through the atmosphere and then falls as rain. Now new measurements of the ocean's salinity prove that prediction - and suggest that global warming strengthens the water cycle even more than anticipated.

"What we found is that regions that are salty in the main are becoming saltier" and areas that boast more rainfall are getting fresher, explains oceanographer Paul Durack of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, who led the research to be published in Science on April 27. "It's another independent estimate of how the climate is changing as we pump out CO2."

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= climate-change-already-strengthens-water-cycle
Quoting nigel20:

whats up hydrus?
Wuzup Nige..Aweful windy here with big thunderstorms moving in. gonna be a rough night.
243. flsky
Quoting Tribucanes:
you've got to listen to hear

No truer words....
241. CaicosRetiredSailor 9:59 PM GMT on April 26, 2012 +1
When it Rains it will Pour--Otherwise, Tough Luck.....hydrus...I want it to rain beer....i,m tired of all this water stuff..give it to Texas...They like water a lot..:)
Hey everyone,

I know you are all talking about rain and a system out there.

My local forcast here in SE Fla (Broward County) is now calling for 80% chance of rain
this Sunday and 60% Monday.

Is there some front or something coming?

Is that system south of Cuba coming this way???

Help??? We are doing great here in South Florida for April rain this year..

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i came from unintelligent muck....nobody loves me....BAWL ! WWAAAA !
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Warnings don't verify risk areas, reports do.


Exactly. I was at a conference once where certain individuals showed us a map of the warnings to indicate the verification of some outlooks/watches. It was almost meaningless to me.
Quoting seflagamma:
Hey everyone,

I know you are all talking about rain and a system out there.

My local forcast here in SE Fla (Broward County) is now calling for 80% chance of rain
this Sunday and 60% Monday.

Is there some front or something coming?

Is that system south of Cuba coming this way???

Help??? We are doing great here in South Florida for April rain this year..

You guys may get in on some of that Caribbean moister out ther...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Thanks for the info... The debris ball like feature isn't there anymore but the storm is still strong


Have not seen any reports of a large tornado, so probably was not a debris ball. They are rarer than most think.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

This was the frame I thought I saw the debris ball in... What do you think?


Actually, now that I see your screenshot... no, definitely not a debris ball. That looks like a garden variety appendage to me, barely a hook echo. More than just reflectivity is needed to have reason to believe that debris is present.
Quoting seflagamma:
Hey everyone,

I know you are all talking about rain and a system out there.

My local forcast here in SE Fla (Broward County) is now calling for 80% chance of rain
this Sunday and 60% Monday.

Is there some front or something coming?

Is that system south of Cuba coming this way???

Help??? We are doing great here in South Florida for April rain this year..


Good evening seflagamma
Mitch Dobrowner has won the Sony World Photography Award with an amazing series of pics on storms.

Huffington Post: "American photographer Mitch Dobrowner has won the Sony World Photographer of the Year 2012 award, with a series of stunning photographs entitled Storms.
Dobrowner's extraordinary black and white photos of brooding skylines pregnant with impending storms defeated over 112,000 rival images that were submitted from 171 different countries."
Link

Look at the series of his photographs here:
http://lightbox.time.com/2011/09/13/mitch-dobrown er-the-storms/#1
Quoting hydrus:
You guys may get in on some of that Caribbean moister out ther...


Thanks hydrus, I guess that is what they are talking about...sounds like a lot of "wet" coming to us this weekend.
Quoting nigel20:

Good evening seflagamma


Good afternoon to you nigel.
By the way,Please call me Gams or Gamma,
my handle is way too long to type out. And everyone calls me one of those two names here.
Quoting seflagamma:


Good afternoon to you nigel.
By the way,Please call me Gams or Gamma,
my handle is way too long to type out. And everyone calls me one of those two names here.

Hey Gams, how have you been? Gearing up for the weekend I see. Alright!
Hey Nigel. Hope you are staying on top of this possible disturbance, big guy.
Quoting ncstorm:
The 18Z NOGAPS has already started gunning for florida, please keep in mind this is the NOGAPS..


Lol, I think that's why the NOGAPS is considered a bad model!
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012


CARIBBEAN SEA...

SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN W
OF 67W THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 10N67W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO BE CONCENTRATED TO THE SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA TO 19N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N83W TO 12N80W TO 10N76W.
WITH THESE BOUNDARIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN
71W-81W. TRADES HAVE INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO
AN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A 1023 MB HIGH HAS SETTLED
INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 29N71W THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY FRIDAY...
HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
AND SW CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AS A RESULT..AN
INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS HAITI AND PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN CUBA ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OF NOTE...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD FROM A PEAK 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL OF 6.9 INCHES REPORTED AT MONCION ON APR 24 TO 1.5 INCHES
REPORTED AT EL SEIBO ON APR 25.
Met Service of Jamaica

NEWS RELEASE April 26, 2012 at 5:00 p.m.

*** FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL PARISHES AS RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND *** The Meteorological Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means that flash flooding is possible and residents are advised to take precautionary measures, keep informed by listening to further releases from the Meteorologica Service and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Warning is issued. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the Trough east of Jamaica continued to affect the island today. Rainfall data indicates that light to moderate showers and isolated heavy showers occurred across sections of all parishes. With the rains forecast to continue into tonight and through Friday, flash flooding is possible over low-lying and flood-prone areas. Friday, flash flooding is possible over low-lying and flood-prone areas Strong winds are expected mainly over southern parishes and offshore waters. A Small Craft Warning is in effect for offshore areas of the south coast and fishers and other marine interests are being advised to exercise caution, as gusty winds and rough seas are likely in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation
Quoting barbamz:
Mitch Dobrowner has won the Sony World Photography Award with an amazing series of pics on storms.
Huffington Post: "American photographer Mitch Dobrowner has won the Sony World Photographer of the Year 2012 award, with a series of stunning photographs entitled Storms.
Dobrowner's extraordinary black and white photos of brooding skylines pregnant with impending storms defeated over 112,000 rival images that were submitted from 171 different countries."

Link

Look at the series of his photographs here:
http://lightbox.time.com/2011/09/13/mitch-dobrown er-the-storms/#1
Very cool...Thank you for posting them.
Quoting hydrus:
Very cool...Thank you for posting them.

Welcome Hydrus. Always a pleasure to find something new I can contribute from faraway Germany ...

Edit: Youtube video. The making of Dobrowner's photos:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQbmXxU2dkg
Quoting seflagamma:


Good afternoon to you nigel.
By the way,Please call me Gams or Gamma,
my handle is way too long to type out. And everyone calls me one of those two names here.

Yeah, no problem
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lol, I think that's why the NOGAPS is considered a bad model!


actually Dr. Masters called it one of the reliable models:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.

I say G.
Quoting EugeneTillman:
Hey Nigel. Hope you are staying on top of this possible disturbance, big guy.

Hey ET. Yes I am
Sorry, I never poll on a Thursday as a rule.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.

I would say E or G
Quoting Patrap:
Sorry, I never poll on a Thursday as a rule.


I'm not polling, I'm surveying ;-)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.
D gulf coast
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.


Well the past three seasons where the ENSO was going into El Nino events (2004, 2006, 2009) the first storm to make landfall in the Atlantic Basin was in the Gulf Coast.

So I'll go with the trend, and say the Gulf Coast, D.
(Mind you, they were all weak tropical systems, as can be expected for early season mischief from fronts, etc.)
Try again..Cool pic of ARP-273...April 20, 2011: To celebrate the 21st anniversary of the Hubble Space Telescope's deployment into space, astronomers at the Space Telescope Science Institute in Baltimore, Md., pointed Hubble's eye at an especially photogenic pair of interacting galaxies called Arp 273. The larger of the spiral galaxies, known as UGC 1810, has a disk that is distorted into a rose-like shape by the gravitational tidal pull of the companion galaxy below it, known as UGC 1813. This image is a composite of Hubble Wide Field Camera 3 data taken on December 17, 2010, with three separate filters that allow a broad range of wavelengths covering the ultraviolet, blue, and red portions of the spectrum.

Hubble was launched April 24, 1990, aboard Discovery's STS-31 mission. Hubble discoveries revolutionized nearly all areas of current astronomical research from planetary science to cosmology.
Hey, Nigel, what's up

Geek, think I go with G.....
Quoting hydrus:
Try again..Cool pic of ARP-273...


That was an adventure to get that on there.
The Barometer Bob Show
This week April 26, 2012
Bob's guests this week are Lanny Dean from ExtremeChaseTours.Com. Lanny was in Kansas during the April 14,2012 Tornado Outbreak. We will discuss this and the Storm Chaser/Spectator convergence in Kansas that day.
Also, Chance Hayes, Warning Coordinating Meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Wichita, Kansas. We will discuss the April 14th event, and how quickly this day materialized as a Severe Weather Outbreak.

Starts in 15minutes

Storm Chat This is where I'll be. Come join me. Sign-in with your WU nick.

Catch ya's there.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I know this is impossible to predict, but here's a quick poll:

Where do you think the first landfalling storm of the Atlantic season will make landfall?

A. Northeast US
B. Southeast Atlantic Coast
C. Florida
D. Gulf Coast
E. Mexico
F. Other Central American country
G. One of the Caribbean islands
H. Bermuda
I. Spain
J. Canada

I say F.


I say C

Has anything ever made landfall in Spain?
Quoting weatherbro:


Yeah...It appears after the trough drifts northeastwards past the Bahama's by Next week a strong ridge is expected do develop over the Peninsula in it's wake with most models forecasting hot and dry weather thereafter(though the GFS has possible coastal sprinkles south of the Cape).



Coastal sprinkles don't count as precipitation :)


lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
FROM THE ASHES OF THE PAST
WE SHALL FORGE A NEW FUTURE AS ONE



From the fires of Mount Doom?


Or from the Crucible of Training?
The 18z GFS spins a little something up in the Bahamas 8 days or so from now...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


I say C

Has anything ever made landfall in Spain?
i think he meant portugal...
253 seflagamma: ...Please call me Gams or Gamma...everyone calls me...those...names here.

Wow, Gamma Gams... they's all sayin' you're hotter 'n X-rayted Legs.
Quoting Jedkins01:



From the fires of Mount Doom?


Or the from the Crucible of Training?



I think it was from "Star Trek: The Return of Spock"
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS spins a little something up in the Bahamas 8 days or so from now...


Spins it up into a moderate tropical storm by 216 hours (futureland)

Then tries to develop a second low by 228 and kills it off in the Caribbean.

Then another one by 300 hours.

AKA, not going to happen.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Hey, Nigel, what's up

Geek, think I go with G.....

Hey, what's up?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Spins it up into a moderate tropical storm by 216 hours (futureland)

Then tries to develop a second low by 228 and kills it off in the Caribbean.

Then another one by 300 hours.

AKA, not going to happen.

The 228 and 300 hour lows won't happen, but for me generally anything inside of 10 days I take a little more seriously, so I wouldn't give the first potential storm no chance...
290. JRRP
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
701 PM CDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
EASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FRANKLIN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRANKLIN AND EAGLEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8653 3569 8666 3571 8669 3570 8674
3592 8694 3601 8683
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 318DEG 21KT 3593 8687

$$
31
Quoting Grothar:



I think it was from "Star Trek: The Return of Spock"



lol I could believe it
Good evening everyone. Fianlloy getting some decent rain down here.



CARIBBEAN SEA...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOW FOCUSED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN WATERS...AS A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR
11N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO
NEAR 17N82W. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KTS...FREQUENT DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO SEA LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED WATER SPOUTS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE REGION. SEAS UP TO 10 FEET ARE FORECAST TO
EVOLVE TONIGHT FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 64W-80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH VALUES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONCENTRATED WITHIN THE
CONVECTION REGION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST CONTINUOUS CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION AND
EXPANDING NNW ACROSS CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
KEEPEROFTHEGATE: FROM THE ASHES OF THE PAST
WE SHALL FORGE A NEW FUTURE AS ONE


Like heck. I ain' 'bout to let no Blob swaller me.
(sneaky how I got the topic back to weather, ain't it?)
Quoting nigel20:

Hey, what's up?


You live on High Ground right? I picked G but I wasn't aiming for your island.
You got some extra rain today, always more that you need it seems. Doing OK here. Our rain event just passed and it wasn't much of one. Very little fell here.
Quoting nigel20:
Little early for that.
Quoting PedleyCA:


That was an adventure to get that on there.
I used a much different word on how it was to get up there.
Quoting hydrus:
I used a much different word on how it was to get up there.


I'll bet you did! But we have to keep it Civil. It was worth the effort.
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
Apr. 26, 2012 - 22:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
Apr. 26, 2012 - 22:45 UTC
Quoting PedleyCA:


You live on High Ground right? I picked G but I wasn't aiming for your island.
You got some extra rain today, always more that you need it seems. Doing OK here. Our rain event just passed and it wasn't much of one. Very little fell here.

Yes I do, most of the the island above 200m, but we have many rivers which is the source of most of the flooding here....sorry you didn't get much rain
Quoting ncstorm:
The 18Z NOGAPS has already started gunning for florida, please keep in mind this is the NOGAPS..



Well that was exciting. Too bad it's NOGAPS. That thing cries wolf far too often for my taste.
This is a lightening forecast map..Something I have not seen before..36 hour run..4 km WRF Hourly Max Lightning Threat 3 Forecasts.
..the canes in Spain, fall mainly on the plain...
Quoting Patrap:
..the canes in Spain, fall mainly on the plain...


By George, I think you got it.
"Georges"



Hurricane Georges as a borderline Category 4 hurricane on September 20 at 1847 UTC. This image was produced from data from NOAA-14, provided by NOAA. Maximum sustained winds were 135 mph.


Hurricane Georges was a powerful and long-lived Cape Verde-type Category 4 hurricane which caused severe destruction as it traversed the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico in September 1998, making seven landfalls along its path. Georges was the seventh tropical storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the 1998 Atlantic hurricane season. It became the second most destructive storm of the season after Hurricane Mitch and the costliest Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
Georges killed 604 people, mainly on the island of Hispaniola, and caused extensive damage resulting at nearly $6 billion (1998 US dollars, $8.56 billion 2012 USD) in damages mostly in St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

The hurricane made landfall in at least seven different countries (Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba and the United States) and Puerto Rico, a Commonwealth of the United States — more than any other hurricane since Hurricane Inez of the 1966 season.
Quoting nigel20:


Nice map,Nigel. Where did you find it?
Quoting barbamz


Wow. I love how b&w makes the structure of the storms pop. Simply stunning.
I would not go for a swim in the Great Lakes even though they are warmer than average.Gulf definitely.
Quoting Patrap:
..the canes in Spain, fall mainly on the plain...
With very heavy rain, and the flooding is a pain.
Quoting hydrus:
GOES Imager Cloud Top Pressure
Apr. 26, 2012 - 22:45 UTCGOES Imager Spectral Difference
Apr. 26, 2012 - 22:45 UTC

Hadn't noticed the cloud top pressure images before. Looked it up here.

"Cloud-top pressure and cloud-top height are derived [from] the cloudtop temperature product and the atmospheric temperature profile provided by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data."
This storm stomped us bad.The storm system that struck the Tennessee Valley on 10 April 2009 presented several impressive satellite images. This image is an overlay of 1 km MODIS visible imagery with 1 km MODIS 11 micron infrared imagery (in color). The image combination tool in AWIPS allows for a unique presentation as the visible imagery shows cloud structure, especially with some of the towering cumulonimbus clouds and cirrus shield associated with the severe weather. The infrared imagery shows the coldest cloud tops associated with the strongest storms, shown by the pink region. The image below demonstrates the full power of MODIS. The visible image has a resolution of 250 m. Unlike the more well known GOES imagery, MODIS can only provide a snapshot image as it is aboard a polar orbiting satellite. However, MODIS gives us a preview of future capabilities.
Quoting Grothar:


Nice map,Nigel. Where did you find it?

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product page
Link
t 0350 UTC on 25 April 2010, a strong storm was approaching Marion County in southeast Tennessee, which is part of the Morristown, Tennessee National Weather Service Forecast Office’s county warning area. Previous analysis by the forecaster indicated that the storm was not yet severe. However, the image here shows the lightning source densities (lower left) surged to over 200 sources while previous lightning data showed far fewer sources and other observations (radar and probability of severe hail) showed no change at this time. This lightning jump prompted the issuing of a severe thunderstorm warning that ultimately had a 20 minute lead time of severe winds near Jasper, Tennessee at 0410 UTC. The total lightning data helped “tip the scales” on issuing this particular warning.
and of course Bastardi's favorite model..moisture heads into the GOM-JMA



Quoting hydrus:
I would not go for a swim in the Great Lakes even though they are warmer than average.Gulf definitely.

Neither would I
SPoRT’s AWIPS II team in collaboration with our partners at the Huntsville National Weather Service are preparing SPoRT data for the next generation of the Weather Service’s decision support software. One such success is a plug-in to display total lightning data. This example image shows the source density product from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) overlaid on the radar data from the Hytop, AL doppler radar. Note the intense lightning activity in the center cell, whereas some other strong radar signatures have no lightning observed. (Image from 24 October 2010)
Quoting nigel20:

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product page
Link


Thanks Nigel, another Toy.....
Speaking of all this doom and gloom... I am too young to remember this, but the Cold War is something that I'm glad I wasn't around for.

Fear the bomb.



Here's the link if you want to see the original image:

Link

Site has some mature content, PG13
Tropical Storm Fay during August 2008 affected many areas of the southeastern U.S. with prodigious rainfall amounts in excess of 500 mm, especially from eastern Florida to southwestern Georgia. A high-resolution simulation of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) depicts the dramatic increase in volumetric soil moisture in the root-zone layer (40-100 cm) in the 8 days from 18 to 26 August 2008. This event certainly helped alleviate the multi-year drought over portions of the southeastern U.S.
.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Thanks Nigel, another Toy.....

No problem
>Traditional GOES imagery can sometimes be difficult to use to distinguish between clouds and snow cover on the ground due to the similarity of the albedo of these features at visible wavelengths. Using the multispectral channels from MODIS, a false color composite can be made that distinguishes between clear ground, snow cover, and clouds. This image demonstrates this capability from a snow storm in the Tennessee River Valley. Here, clouds remain white, clear ground is green to aqua, and snow cover is designated by the various shades of red.
326. MTWX
Confirmed tornadoes from last years outbreak across the Jackson NWS coverage area.




Link to article and individual tornado survey reports
April 26, 2012 SST Anomaly
Quoting nigel20:
April 26, 2012 SST Anomaly

Something about that map just doesn't seem accurate to me. I would use NOAA's Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map...but that's just me.

Definitely would use this one though.



Click on the image to be directed to the website.
Quoting hydrus:
I would not go for a swim in the Great Lakes even though they are warmer than average.Gulf definitely.


We were swimming in the Atlantic last Tuesday in RI. :)
COLD!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Something about that map just doesn't seem accurate to me. I would use NOAA's Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map...but that's just me.

Definitely would use this one though.



Click on the image to be directed to the website.


What's the pressure from the pacific high
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's with everything, especially the Gulf, getting colder in the last couple frames?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Something about that map just doesn't seem accurate to me. I would use NOAA's Sea Surface Temperature anomaly map...but that's just me.

Definitely would use this one though.



Click on the image to be directed to the website.

Yeah, it's a bit off...this is the one I use on my blog
supercooled water video (with bonus Darth Vader imitation)

video with music
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Do you have the Pacific loop to see how it cools a little bit?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ha.



I must admit, I'm hoping this happens and it has a fair shot as the possible upward MJO phase comes through the basin. However, it will be very short lived. We need consistency, as from what I see no other models are predicting anything to form in 8 days other than the GFS. If this where to happen though, however unlikely, it would be remarkable to see, as it could be easily a 65 mph cyclone according to the GFS and it is defiantly a purely tropical system. However, the natural climatological norms are against it, such as the 100 knot shear values over Cuba that would have to die down to around 20, which to me is improbable. It would have to get lucky with an anticyclone.

I am highly skeptical, but it would be interesting to be proved wrong in this case.
Shew it was just stormin pretty bad here in SE PA no hail just thunder, lightning and ALOT of rain
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What's with everything, especially the Gulf, getting colder in the last couple frames?

There's been a lot of wind across the Gulf of Mexico lately with that last low pressure area. That probably cooled it off.

Quoting weatherh98:


What's the pressure from the pacific high

Honestly, I have no clue.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you have the Pacific loop to see how it cools a little bit?

Just a second..
The Gulf cooled due to the strong trof of low pressure that just moved through last weekend.


strange to see this in late April.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi there

Some great rain this evening and a surface low to the South stirring things up. Last year was very dry all the way into the mid part of the year as I recall, quite unlike this year which has been wet early.Whether this means anything in terms of how different this season may be from the last remains to be seen.

Looks like the MJO could kick start something in the not too distant future if upper level conditions cooperate.



News about a study using lightning and phased-array radar data for a thunderstorm.

"Though total lightning flash rates are expected to increase as storm updrafts intensify, in this case a short-lived decrease in total lightning flash rate (upper-left) was observed during the simultaneous development of an updraft surge."
Quoting stormpetrol:


strange to see this in late April.

Yea it is...maybe we'll have an early storm
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Some great rain this evening and a surface low to the South stirring things up. Last year was very dry all the way into the mid part of the year as I recall, quite unlike this year which has been wet early.Whether this means anything in terms of how different this season may be from the last remains to be seen.

Looks like the MJO could kick start something in the not too distant future if upper level conditions cooperate.





Hi, my wife and I just got a good soaking trying to get our groceries in the car at Fosters, no use waiting for this rain to hold up a bit. The only thing I see holding back potential development in the SW caribbean is 40-60 knots of shear!


Le hour 204 GFS... Weak TS in the Bahamas...
Quoting stormpetrol:


Hi, my wife and I just got a good soaking trying to get our groceries in the car at Fosters, no use waiting for this rain to hold up a bit. The only thing I see holding back potential development in the SW caribbean is 40-60 knots of shear!


Agreed, though shear has slackened a bit in the central Caribbean of late. May will be here on Monday so after that anything could happen.
Wikipedia article on hail spikes.

"Generally known as hail spikes, these are the result of energy from the radar hitting hail, or very heavy rain, and being deflected to the ground, where they deflect back to the hail and then to the radar as in the image on the left."
Quoting hydrus:
SPoRT’s AWIPS II team in collaboration with our partners at the Huntsville National Weather Service are preparing SPoRT data for the next generation of the Weather Service’s decision support software. One such success is a plug-in to display total lightning data. This example image shows the source density product from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) overlaid on the radar data from the Hytop, AL doppler radar. Note the intense lightning activity in the center cell, whereas some other strong radar signatures have no lightning observed. (Image from 24 October 2010)


That is the kind of stuff that get's me excited! lol
Quoting Patrap:


Hi Pat,

Another year on the blog up and running in April would you believe !.
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pat,

Another year on the blog up and running in April would you believe !.


Hiya Kman,


Once mo, into the "Season" we shall go.



Time keeps on slipping, slipping, slipping, into da fucha'...
Quoting Patrap:


Hiya Kman,


Once mo, into the "Season" we shall go.



Time keeps on slipping, slipping, slipping, into da fucha'...


Luv that song LOL.

Could be a long season with conditions becoming relatively active this early.
Quoting kmanislander:


Luv that song LOL.

Could be a long season with conditions becoming relatively active this early.




I'm with ya on that.


Tx13, I found the Pacific loop. This is from January 5th to April 26th 2012.


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tx13, I found the Pacific loop. This is from January 5th to April 26th 2012.



Well, I had made my own loop for the Caribbean region specifically, I didn't find it off the site.

Thanks for posting that as the GIF maker wasn't cooperating with me. =P
Quoting kmanislander:


Luv that song LOL.

Could be a long season with conditions becoming relatively active this early.


I'm thinking an early start, followed by an early end (something like 2002).
Quoting Patrap:




I'm with ya on that.


I'm not going to disagree with you guys on your hunch about this hurricane season bc I think both of you have been around a decade or so longer than I have and therefore you have a better idea (presumably) about how the season is going to turn out. But, what makes you guys think this year is going to be active?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I had made my own loop for the Caribbean region specifically, I didn't find it off the site.

Thanks for posting that as the GIF maker wasn't cooperating with me. =P


Here is the link to the loops.

Link
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I'm not going to disagree with you guys on your hunch about this hurricane season bc I think both of you have been around a decade or so longer than I have and therefore you have a better idea (presumably) about how the season is going to turn out. But, what makes you guys think this year is going to be active?


Analog year 2002..,for me.


Tendency for the Western Caribbean and GOM to breed and support Hurricanes.


What's up everyone...did a special (but brief) tropical update this morning b/c of activity in the Caribbean.

Basically am waiting for if/when the upper flow over the disturbance becomes more anticyclonic (which would reduce shear/enhance outflow). This would happen if the latent heat release of the thunderstorms was enough to build a vertical warm core.

So far the latest 200 mb wind barbs don't suggest this is happening...so I am not impressed yet in terms of tropical development...

But man talk about the heavy rains. I wonder how much has fallen in Jamiaca and eastern Cuba today.
Expedition 30 Crew Returning Home Friday

The six astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station packed cargo and shifted their sleep schedule Thursday as three Expedition 30 crew members prepare to return to Earth early Friday after five and a half months in space.

Expedition 30 Commander Dan Burbank and Flight Engineers Anton Shkaplerov and Anatoly Ivanishin, who arrived at the orbiting complex on Nov. 16, are set to undock in their Soyuz TMA-22 spacecraft at 4:18 a.m. EDT Friday for a landing in the steppe of Kazakhstan at 7:45 a.m.
More 'grolar' bears spotted in N.W.T.

26/04/2012 2:14:11 PM

CBC News
The 'grolar' bear - a mix between a grizzly and a polar bear - has been spotted once again near Ulukhaktok, N.W.T.


The sightings are becoming more common - the last one was shot near the community in 2010, and another was found in 2006.

Robert Kuptana, who lives in the Arctic hamlet of about 400 people, said a family of three bears was recently hunted by someone in the community.
"One is pure white, which is the mother, and there's one with fairly dark fur on it and another one, too, is fairly white but you look at the legs and they're brown, so it's a very different being," said Kuptana.

Kuptana said grizzly bears, which are a species not natural to the area, are increasing in numbers near Ulukhaktok.

He said ever since the caribou have been travelling a different route along the mainland, the grizzlies have been following the herds and mating with polar bears.



The Irvine City Council voted Tuesday night to send a letter to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission opposing the San Onofre nuclear plant. [...] More than 200 people packed the council chambers for a public hearing [...]

The letter opposes the relicensing of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station and highlights other concerns over the plants operation. [...]

Arnie Gundersen came from Vermont to testify. Hes a former nuclear engineer who says plant operator, Southern California Edison, made design changes which caused the current problems. Its the beginning of a movement nationwide to tell the NRC that business as usual just isnt good enough anymore, Gundersen said. [...]

Councilman Larry Agran says hes worried about public safety should something disastrous happen at the nuclear plant. So if we dont speak up about that and take those responsibilities seriously, we might as well give up on local government, he said.
Wow the Tuscaloosa video is amazing. They had so much time to vacate the area. Unless they were able to get underground they had no chance at survival. In a situation such as this, with the time they had; driving away from this was the only way to survive if not underground or in tornado safe room. Next time hopefully they will suggest driving away from this impending death. I'm not advocating running from a tornado in a car when it's on you, but when you have 15-35 minutes warning and no underground shelter they (the people of Tuscaloosa) should have been encouraged to go to a place of sure survival or drive away. In an F4-F5 how people die is they and the entire structure they are in are sucked into the funnel. Death comes from getting struck by objects in the funnel. When I was a young boy, in Wilson N.C. my neighborhood was hit by a tornado. My bed was right beside the window, I awoke to my window shattering. My family rushed to the center hallway. A sound I'll never forget came on us, and the roof was torn away. We were fortunate that day, and my intrigue with nature was born.
Well crap! Dejavu all over again. :(


Six forest fires break out in Kountze




The Kountze Volunteer Fire Department says they have contained six forest fires that broke out Thursday.

The fire department believes sparks from a passing train may have caused the fire because the fires were spread for miles along train tracks.

It was difficult for firefighters to get to the fire because winds pushed the fires deep into the woods.

The fire trucks couldn't get to the flames so firefighters had to call in reinforcements.

What began as a small brush fire grew rapidly into a forest fire.

According to Kountze Volunteer Fire Department, six fires lined this train track for miles causing them to believe sparks from a passing train caused the blaze.

"I was not expecting this at all. We've had a lot of rain. Evidently we haven't had enough," Kountze Fire Chief Jeff Lacomb said.

25 mile per hour wind gusts pushed the fires deep into the forest beyond brush and trees causing trouble for firefighters.

"Fire units can't get close to it right now," Chief Lacomb said.

Kountze Fire Department called for back up by land and by air. Texas Forest Service provided a birds eye view so firefighters could have a better idea of what they were dealing with.

"They're scattered from the high school basically to Honey Island. They're roughly 4, 5, 6 miles apart," Chief Lacomb said.

The fire department brought in dozers to make plow lines around the fires.

Sour Lake Fire Department joined the cause with a brush truck used to extinguish spot fires.

Chief Lacomb calls Thursday's fires a reminder of what he may be in for this year.

"If I remember correctly it started about this time last year in our area. So I'm not looking forward to the rest of the year.

No homes were evacuated and no injuries have been reported.

Chief Lacomb says keep brush piles small if you burn any, plow dirt around the fire, and keep a water hose handy.

Thursday's fire is proof that flames can still spread despite an early rain season.

Henderson County NC had hail over 1 inch diameter on April 26, about 9 pm. Some of it landed on my deck, and several pieces were larger than quarters. Some hailstones were smooth, like marbles, and others were spiky, like a sea urchin. They were the largest hailstones I have ever seen first hand.
Russian Gov’t Radio: “The number of victims has reached one million people today” — Consequences of Chernobyl meltdown are endless and uncontrollable

Chernobyl tragedy: the last “gift” from the Soviet regime
Source: Voice of Russia
Author: Dmitry Konchalovsky
Date: Apr 26, 2012

Exactly 26 years ago there was an explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Whole regions in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have become unfit for life, and the number of victims has reached one million people today. And experts are still disputing about long-term consequences of the disaster.

[...] its consequences are endless and uncontrollable, and it is impossible to count the exact number of victims. Scientists are still arguing if the number of one million deaths is valid, but when such big numbers are taken into account, the one thing is absolutely clear – things are in a bad way. Besides, no one can count how many babies could not be born, and on the lives of how many subsequent generations this disaster will tell in the form of cancer.
Can't slap the smile off my face either. ;D

At home n Texas, so sorry to hear your in for a repeat of last year. When TS Don hit last year and immediately evaporated I was very concerned. NOAA reported this was the fastest dissipation of a TS ever. Other ones that came close were ones that went over mountainous regions. It was crazy to watch it dissipate so instantly. We can hope for a pattern change, but I think we both know that is highly unlikely. Good luck and God speed, your going to need it.
Quoting Tribucanes:
At home n Texas, so sorry to hear your in for a repeat of last year. When TS Don hit last year and immediately evaporated I was very concerned. NOAA reported this was the fastest dissipation of a TS ever. Other ones that came close were ones that went over mountainous regions. It was crazy to watch it dissipate so instantly. We can hope for a pattern change, but I think we both know that is highly unlikely. Good luck and God speed, your going to need it.


Thank you. I hope something changes from last year. We in east Tx have had an insane amount of rain and it surprised me too when I read about the fires. But farther west they haven't had near the rain we've had or none. I can't imagine another summer like that. The demise of Don was pretty amazing. And the ridge knocked all the moisture out of Lee's west side but his winds just fanned the flames. A repeat's a pretty scary thought.
Ummmmm???? What tropical wave? First I've heard of it but I hope it does make it this far.

NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS OR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ZONAL ACROSS THE S U.S. AS A RESULT...NOT MUCH CHANGES
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED AS FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT INVERSION AND DRY AIR FROM 850-700MB REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS BEGINS TO ERODE SOMEWHAT BY
MON...AS A WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED MOISTURE APPROACHES THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. FOR THIS...LEFT INHERITED 20% FOR MON. RIDGE
REBUILDS STRONG AGAIN TUE. BY WED...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE
MAY AFFECT THE REGION...NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST
THOUGH.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT THU.
Great point, this TS didn't provide needed rains it fanned the flames, that point had escaped me until you mentioned it. I remember now that happened. How long before West Texas becomes a desert? Good thing ye Texans are a tough lot.
I'm assuming this trough is what they referred to as a tropical wave?


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1031 PM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N WILL LIFT N TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY LATE FRI BEFORE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SAT THROUGH TUE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...INTO THE SE GULF
MON...AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE.


Looming Crisis: Officials Close Gulf Waters to Shrimping As Reports of Deformed Seafood Intensify

Alarmed by widespread reports of visibly sick, deformed seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, state officials have closed area waters to shrimping this morning (April 23). The waters will be closed indefinitely as scientists run tests in an effort to get a handle on a situation that is fast becoming a full-blown crisis on the Gulf Coast.

The closures – including all waters in the Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay, areas of Bon Secour, Wolf Bay and Little Lagoon – mark the first official step in responding to increasingly urgent reports from fishermen and scientists of grotesquely disfigured seafood from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

The move is yet another major setback for the once-legendary Gulf seafood industry as it continues to struggle under the devastating impact of the BP oil spill, which began in April 2010.

Two years later, reports of severely deformed shrimp with bulging tumors – and no eyes – have become common.

And it’s not just the shrimp. Commercial fishermen are reporting red snapper and grouper riddled with deep lesions and covered with strange black streaks. Highly underdeveloped blue crabs are being pulled up in traps without eyes and claws (see link at bottom to my previous post on seafood deformities).

For those who thought 205 million gallons of oil and 2 million gallons of toxic dispersant weren’t going to have an impact on Gulf seafood, you need to check back in with reality.

As for the impetus for the shrimping closures, consider this from an April 18 Al Jazeera report by Dahr Jamail, who has doggedly covered the BP spill since the early days of the disaster:

Tracy Kuhns and her husband Mike Roberts, commercial fishers from Barataria, Louisiana, are finding eyeless shrimp.

“At the height of the last white shrimp season, in September, one of our friends caught 400 pounds of these,” Kuhns told Al Jazeera while showing a sample of the eyeless shrimp.

According to Kuhns, at least 50 per cent of the shrimp caught in that period in Barataria Bay, a popular shrimping area that was heavily impacted by BP’s oil and dispersants, were eyeless. Kuhns added: “Disturbingly, not only do the shrimp lack eyes, they even lack eye sockets.”

Disturbing indeed. I am deeply saddened but not surprised by the shrimping closures. I applaud the courageous move by state officials to put consumer safety first. There’s no doubt in my mind – as I’ve said for months on end – that seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is unfit for human consumption.

We will bring you updates on water testing and any word on when these areas of the Gulf will be re-opened to shrimping.

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/a-taste-of-the-grotes que-in-the-gulf-eyeless-shrimp-clawless-crabs-and- lesion-covered-fish

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/looming-crisis-offici als-close-gulf-waters-to-shrimping-as-reports-of-d eformed-seafood-intensify

http://www.weartv.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos /wear_vid_22028.shtml

Gulf shrimping shut down

http://www.1041beat.com/cc-common/mainheadlines3. html?feed=118702&article=10070095
Wow as a major shrimp consumer and one who spent many a day on my Grandfathers sailboat in the Gulf, this is a sad day indeed. For them to shut down shrimping in these areas is a major red flag. This is in the infancy of the effect we will see. For this to happen so fast is unbelievable. Sadly, much has already been passed on to consumers and effects will rear their ugly heads far too soon.
certain communities in last years outbreak were under a no-survival strike. Meaning unless you were underground or in a tornado safe-room death was imminent. Technology has now come full circle, we know when and where these monsters are. I'm advocating a drive away plan for survival. Often no other option will be available. I know this will be debated, but I believe it may be the only coarse of survival for some. Once again, I'm not advocating running from a tornado in a car when it's on you; but watching the Tuscaloosa tornado leads me to believe many could have survived by getting in their vehicles and driving five miles in the opposite direction of the tornado. My aim is to save one or more from this most unfortunate beast of nature. The sad truth is, many did the right thing; they enacted their emergency plan. They went to an interior closet and covered themselves and loved ones; it was just their day. Had they got in their vehicles and drove away they would still be with us.
And let us not forget that every day 25000 kids die in this fallen world due to poverty, those of us who wake up every day to post are blessed. This is, in my opinion, the best site for weather and climate change debate on the internet. Makes you wonder why there aren't more of us here. Should be thousands of us posting as opposed to dozens. I'm thankful to all who post here, even those who opinions I ardently oppose. I'm out.........PEACE.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Looming Crisis: Officials Close Gulf Waters to Shrimping As Reports of Deformed Seafood Intensify

Alarmed by widespread reports of visibly sick, deformed seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, state officials have closed area waters to shrimping this morning (April 23). The waters will be closed indefinitely as scientists run tests in an effort to get a handle on a situation that is fast becoming a full-blown crisis on the Gulf Coast.

The closures – including all waters in the Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay, areas of Bon Secour, Wolf Bay and Little Lagoon – mark the first official step in responding to increasingly urgent reports from fishermen and scientists of grotesquely disfigured seafood from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

The move is yet another major setback for the once-legendary Gulf seafood industry as it continues to struggle under the devastating impact of the BP oil spill, which began in April 2010.

Two years later, reports of severely deformed shrimp with bulging tumors – and no eyes – have become common.

And it’s not just the shrimp. Commercial fishermen are reporting red snapper and grouper riddled with deep lesions and covered with strange black streaks. Highly underdeveloped blue crabs are being pulled up in traps without eyes and claws (see link at bottom to my previous post on seafood deformities).

For those who thought 205 million gallons of oil and 2 million gallons of toxic dispersant weren’t going to have an impact on Gulf seafood, you need to check back in with reality.

As for the impetus for the shrimping closures, consider this from an April 18 Al Jazeera report by Dahr Jamail, who has doggedly covered the BP spill since the early days of the disaster:

Tracy Kuhns and her husband Mike Roberts, commercial fishers from Barataria, Louisiana, are finding eyeless shrimp.

“At the height of the last white shrimp season, in September, one of our friends caught 400 pounds of these,” Kuhns told Al Jazeera while showing a sample of the eyeless shrimp.

According to Kuhns, at least 50 per cent of the shrimp caught in that period in Barataria Bay, a popular shrimping area that was heavily impacted by BP’s oil and dispersants, were eyeless. Kuhns added: “Disturbingly, not only do the shrimp lack eyes, they even lack eye sockets.”

Disturbing indeed. I am deeply saddened but not surprised by the shrimping closures. I applaud the courageous move by state officials to put consumer safety first. There’s no doubt in my mind – as I’ve said for months on end – that seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is unfit for human consumption.

We will bring you updates on water testing and any word on when these areas of the Gulf will be re-opened to shrimping.

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/a-taste-of-the-grotes que-in-the-gulf-eyeless-shrimp-clawless-crabs-and- lesion-covered-fish

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/looming-crisis-offici als-close-gulf-waters-to-shrimping-as-reports-of-d eformed-seafood-intensify

http://www.weartv.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos /wear_vid_22028.shtml

Gulf shrimping shut down

http://www.1041beat.com/cc-common/mainheadlines3. html?feed=118702&article=10070095


we are coming to a great crossroads
the likes of which have never been seen
A messy weekend (and beginning of the week) looks to be in store for the Bahamas and the southern parts of Florida:

Miami
There are, and have been, a number of active tornado warnings in eastern Colorado this morning, all attached to the low spinning its way eastward:

TORNADO WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 259 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 256 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 243 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 221 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 218 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 155 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 144 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 143 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 125 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 109 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
TORNADO WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 1246 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
SVR T-STORM WARNING PUEBLO CO - KPUB 1222 AM MDT FRI APR 27 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we are coming to a great crossroads
the likes of which have never been seen
I have to agree with you there, this is horrible and i am guessing man cannot do anything to stop this and the gulf seafood industry will vanish as we once knew it.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

AMZ610-630-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-281030-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-
METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
435 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES...
...THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH COMBINED WITH WAVE ACTION
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES OF MIAMI DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA
AND ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, THE POTENTIAL IS
INCREASING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Good Morning... Almost that time of the year.
Hard to believe it's been a year since the Super Outbreak...

Meanwhile, on the one year anniversary:



RELATIVELY COMPACT CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELL/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
DEVELOP AND SHIFT EWD TODAY ACROSS MAINLY KS.
LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL
ALSO IS POSSIBLE. SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN REGARDING
TIMING/DURATION OF FAVORABLE SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OVER
PORTIONS CENTRAL-ERN KS...OTHERWISE NARROW CORRIDOR OF EVEN GREATER
SVR PROBABILITIES MAY BECOME APPARENT.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION IS
POSSIBLE BEHIND MORNING ACTIVITY AND AHEAD OF SURGING DRYLINE. MOST
PROBABLE LOCATION ATTM APPEARS TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL
KS...IN ARC FROM N THROUGH ESE OF NEARBY SFC LOW. MODIFIED
RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-UPPER 60S F SFC
TEMPS...CERTAINLY ATTAINABLE WITH EVEN BRIEF SLOT OF PRE-DRYLINE SFC
INSOLATION...WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW
PARCELS AND MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG. STG VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT
AND LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF
SFC LOW AND NEARBY WARM FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORT RISK FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.


catagorical upgrade to moderate
Link
A 4-day tornado outbreak. 358 tornadoes. 349 fatalities. April 27, 2011 was the peak of the event. 292 tornadoes were reported across 21 states on this date one year ago, of which 208 were confirmed.

The largest and costliest tornado outbreak in USA history.

4 EF5's.



Quoting sunlinepr:


Looming Crisis: Officials Close Gulf Waters to Shrimping As Reports of Deformed Seafood Intensify

Alarmed by widespread reports of visibly sick, deformed seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico, state officials have closed area waters to shrimping this morning (April 23). The waters will be closed indefinitely as scientists run tests in an effort to get a handle on a situation that is fast becoming a full-blown crisis on the Gulf Coast.

The closures – including all waters in the Mississippi Sound, Mobile Bay, areas of Bon Secour, Wolf Bay and Little Lagoon – mark the first official step in responding to increasingly urgent reports from fishermen and scientists of grotesquely disfigured seafood from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle.

The move is yet another major setback for the once-legendary Gulf seafood industry as it continues to struggle under the devastating impact of the BP oil spill, which began in April 2010.

Two years later, reports of severely deformed shrimp with bulging tumors – and no eyes – have become common.

And it’s not just the shrimp. Commercial fishermen are reporting red snapper and grouper riddled with deep lesions and covered with strange black streaks. Highly underdeveloped blue crabs are being pulled up in traps without eyes and claws (see link at bottom to my previous post on seafood deformities).

For those who thought 205 million gallons of oil and 2 million gallons of toxic dispersant weren’t going to have an impact on Gulf seafood, you need to check back in with reality.

As for the impetus for the shrimping closures, consider this from an April 18 Al Jazeera report by Dahr Jamail, who has doggedly covered the BP spill since the early days of the disaster:

Tracy Kuhns and her husband Mike Roberts, commercial fishers from Barataria, Louisiana, are finding eyeless shrimp.

“At the height of the last white shrimp season, in September, one of our friends caught 400 pounds of these,” Kuhns told Al Jazeera while showing a sample of the eyeless shrimp.

According to Kuhns, at least 50 per cent of the shrimp caught in that period in Barataria Bay, a popular shrimping area that was heavily impacted by BP’s oil and dispersants, were eyeless. Kuhns added: “Disturbingly, not only do the shrimp lack eyes, they even lack eye sockets.”

Disturbing indeed. I am deeply saddened but not surprised by the shrimping closures. I applaud the courageous move by state officials to put consumer safety first. There’s no doubt in my mind – as I’ve said for months on end – that seafood coming out of the Gulf of Mexico is unfit for human consumption.

We will bring you updates on water testing and any word on when these areas of the Gulf will be re-opened to shrimping.

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/a-taste-of-the-grotes que-in-the-gulf-eyeless-shrimp-clawless-crabs-and- lesion-covered-fish

http://www.stuarthsmith.com/looming-crisis-offici als-close-gulf-waters-to-shrimping-as-reports-of-d eformed-seafood-intensify

http://www.weartv.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos /wear_vid_22028.shtml

Gulf shrimping shut down

http://www.1041beat.com/cc-common/mainheadlines3. html?feed=118702&article=10070095


Disgraceful!!
Meanwhile, we have our own problems to deal with today. As expected due to the fact they released a PWO earlier this morning, the Storm Prediction Center has decided to upgrade to a Moderate risk for the potential of large, destructive hail and strong tornadoes.



PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0601 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
TODAY.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE GREATEST
RISK AREA...FROM WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF KANSAS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS MORNING TO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
DESTABILIZING LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. AS
THIS OCCURS...WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR AN EPISODE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY BEGIN AS
EARLY AS MIDDAY AND FEATURE A RISK FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES. BY THIS EVENING...THE SEVERE RISK WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN
MISSOURI...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..SMITH.. 04/27/2012
Moderate risk today... and the chance for T-Storms in Nassau as well? I'm staying inside for today :3 such a nerd.
One year today... April 27, 2011 Super Outbreak... Never forget it.
Looks as if the OZ run of the models want to bring this deep tropical north across the entire FL Penisula by early to mid next week. If this plays out there could be some localized flooding. It's odd because it was the CMC who first picked up on this scenario yesterday.

CMC


GFS
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if the OZ run of the models want to bring this deep tropical north across the entire FL Penisula by early to mid next week. If this plays out there could be some localized flooding. It's odd because it was the CMC who first picked up on this scenario yesterday.

CMC


GFS


Looks like the CMC finally won one... I guess that it, too, has passed the GFS in global model skill level.
393 LargoFl: I have to agree with you there, this is horrible and I am guessing man cannot do anything to stop this and the gulf seafood industry will vanish as we once knew it.

Even without the oil spill catastrophe, rather inevitable what with international trafficking bringing together within a single human lifetime once geographicly separated species for evolutionary competition that would have taken nature tens of thousands of years to set up... if not vastly longer.

The Asian Black Tiger Shrimp takes the "jumbo shrimp" oxymoron to a whole new level.

If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em... cuz lionfish are eating darn near everything else out there.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks like the CMC finally won one... I guess that it, too, has passed the GFS in global model skill level.


CMC has gotten better over the last couple of years for sure. The Euro and GFS though are still on top. I think the GFS has actually done well this year as it nailed down pretty much everyone of these ULL's this winter & spring when the rest of the models were advertising long wave troughs coming across the US.
Quoting aspectre:
393 LargoFl: I have to agree with you there, this is horrible and I am guessing man cannot do anything to stop this and the gulf seafood industry will vanish as we once knew it.

Even without the oil spill catastrophe, rather inevitable what with international trafficking bringing together species for evolutionary competition within a single human lifetime that would have taken nature tens of thousands of years to set up... if not vastly longer.

Asian Black Tiger Shrimp takes the "jumbo shrimp" oxymoron to a whole new level.

If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em... cuz lionfish are eating darn near everything else out there.


Nice! Getting hungery now!
Quoting aspectre:
393 LargoFl: I have to agree with you there, this is horrible and I am guessing man cannot do anything to stop this and the gulf seafood industry will vanish as we once knew it.

Even without the oil spill catastrophe, rather inevitable what with international trafficking bringing together species for evolutionary competition within a single human lifetime that would have taken nature tens of thousands of years to set up... if not vastly longer.

Asian Black Tiger Shrimp takes the "jumbo shrimp" oxymoron to a whole new level.

If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em... cuz lionfish are eating darn near everything else out there.


I am notorious for walking out of restaurants which don't serve local shrimp....
Quoting presslord:


I am notorious for walking out of restaurants which don't serve local shrimp....


I'm with you there.


impressive winds!
Quoting aspectre:
393 LargoFl: I have to agree with you there, this is horrible and I am guessing man cannot do anything to stop this and the gulf seafood industry will vanish as we once knew it.

Even without the oil spill catastrophe, rather inevitable what with international trafficking bringing together species for evolutionary competition within a single human lifetime that would have taken nature tens of thousands of years to set up... if not vastly longer.

Asian Black Tiger Shrimp takes the "jumbo shrimp" oxymoron to a whole new level.

If you can't beat 'em, eat 'em... cuz lionfish are eating darn near everything else out there.


Either this guy is small, or they get really big.


Quoting stormpetrol:


impressive winds!


Yeah and the winds are all over the place. Could be a low trying to form near this deep convection in the Southern Caribbean.



384 Tribucanes: How long before West Texas becomes a desert? Good thing ye Texans are a tough lot.

Near as I can remember from my travels, climate-wise:
everything FortWorth&westward has been visibly part of the DesertSouthWest's chaparral&scrubland,
while everything Dallas&eastward has been visibly part of the OldSouth's lush greenery.
There's an amazingly sharp transition within the short distance separating the two cities.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Either this guy is small, or they get really big.




I've never seen shrimp that big! I wonder how they taste as one would think the small ones taste much better.
It is going to be a wet several days in S FL then building up the Penisula next week according to the models this morning.

Quoting presslord:


I am notorious for walking out of restaurants which don't serve local shrimp....



once we get rid of the lower life forms
everything else will fall in line with it

kinda like a brick wall
take out bottom row
and the rest will tumble behind it
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I've never seen shrimp that big! I wonder how they taste as one would think the small ones taste much better.


yea...I agree...bet it tastes like a pencil eraser...
Please stop posting that the shrimping waters are being closed outright because of any form of worry over safety - The only closures are from the Alabama state government, and were because the crop were too small in size to continue being harvested.

http://www.local15tv.com/news/local/story/Shrimpi ng-Waters-To-Be-Closed-This-Weekend/_v0NRY93k0epFh 1yC3m2Bg.cspx
Quoting errantlythought:
Please stop posting that the shrimping waters are being closed outright because of any form of worry over safety - The only closures are from the Alabama state government, and were because the crop were too small in size to continue being harvested.

http://www.local15tv.com/news/local/story/Shrimpi ng-Waters-To-Be-Closed-This-Weekend/_v0NRY93k0epFh 1yC3m2Bg.cspx
dont worry it was only fireworks carry on nothing happening here
409 presslord: I am notorious for walking out of restaurants which don't serve local shrimp....

The good news being that exotic species that hadda be shipped on ice (often for many days, often effectively frozen) will soon become common locally.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Russian Gov’t Radio: “The number of victims has reached one million people today” — Consequences of Chernobyl meltdown are endless and uncontrollable

Chernobyl tragedy: the last “gift” from the Soviet regime
Source: Voice of Russia
Author: Dmitry Konchalovsky
Date: Apr 26, 2012

Exactly 26 years ago there was an explosion at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Whole regions in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus have become unfit for life, and the number of victims has reached one million people today. And experts are still disputing about long-term consequences of the disaster.

[...] its consequences are endless and uncontrollable, and it is impossible to count the exact number of victims. Scientists are still arguing if the number of one million deaths is valid, but when such big numbers are taken into account, the one thing is absolutely clear – things are in a bad way. Besides, no one can count how many babies could not be born, and on the lives of how many subsequent generations this disaster will tell in the form of cancer.


No they aren't. At least no credible scientists.

That really is nothing more than purely speculative opinion. Not only that, but it also makes non-falsifiable claims and uses them to support the argument, which pretty much rules out this article coming from a verifiable source. Official scientific reports including ones done by the Union of Concerned Scientists and TORCH do not cite anywhere close to that number, and those reports were produced fairly recently (2005 and 2006). If you have a reputable study that shows otherwise then please include the link.

Things have improved considerably since the accident. The only life that hasn't returned on a permanent basis is human life. You can even get guided tours which take you through the town.

Radiation does not equal guaranteed death or illness. If it did, no one would bother eating salt substitute or have fire detectors in their home. Humans are not fragile creatures that dissolve suddenly when hit by a stray alpha particle, nor do we sprout tumors because we eat bananas.

There are facts when it comes to radiation exposure, and then there is fiction. However, like another topic of discussion on this blog, there is far more fiction than fact.
Yesterday looking toward Nashville..
Good Morning. That persistent patch of convection North of Colombia will not go away it seems but the very high sheer is keeping things in check. It is situated right near a patch of the jet stream (see link below); that MJO is a workin but the sheer from the Westerlies (as it should be this time of the year) and added jet stream position is too daunting. Gonna be interesting to see what happens with ENSO over the coming weeks in terms of whether continued Neutral conditions (for the time being) will allow the sheer values to drop significantly over the next several weeks going into June. You cannot rush Mother Nature into all the precise elements favorable for storm formation according to the traditional Climatology.

Link
MJO is forecast to continue thru mid May per GFS.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
It is going to be a wet several days in S FL then building up the Penisula next week according to the models this morning.

i hope your right, we really need the rain in central florida huh
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
715 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MERRIMACK RIVER MA TO WATCH HILL RI OUT TO
25 NM

ANZ250-272300-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK
NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
715 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO
7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO
7 FT.
.SAT...W WINDS 20 TO 25 KT...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT.
.MON...W WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT OR LESS.
.TUE...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SEAS AROUND
2 FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

SEAS ARE REPORTED AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE
AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST THIRD OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVE
HEIGHTS MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
i hope your right, we really need the rain in central florida huh


Yeah I know but just as easy as the models jumped on this wet scenario come mid week for C FL it can go away that fast. So the key is to see if how the models handle this scenario thru the weekend. One thing is for sure and that's S FL is in for a lot of rain the next 7 to 10 days.
Also. There is no low trying to form down there. Most of that convection is Baroclinic in nature related to the warm front boundry area/moisture surge flowing up from Columbia and the Ithmus of CA.
Quoting Tribucanes:
certain communities in last years outbreak were under a no-survival strike. Meaning unless you were underground or in a tornado safe-room death was imminent. Technology has now come full circle, we know when and where these monsters are. I'm advocating a drive away plan for survival. Often no other option will be available. I know this will be debated, but I believe it may be the only coarse of survival for some. Once again, I'm not advocating running from a tornado in a car when it's on you; but watching the Tuscaloosa tornado leads me to believe many could have survived by getting in their vehicles and driving five miles in the opposite direction of the tornado. My aim is to save one or more from this most unfortunate beast of nature. The sad truth is, many did the right thing; they enacted their emergency plan. They went to an interior closet and covered themselves and loved ones; it was just their day. Had they got in their vehicles and drove away they would still be with us.
I think this is a good option if somehow you could make sure people got out fast once they were told to leave. Otherwise, Mr. Smith would be running to the car with his keys and kids in hand, but Mrs. Smith would be going through cabinets trying to pack granola bars and water....

This idea would inevitably save people, but some would also find themselves facing the tornado through the car windows instead of in an interior room in a house.
Quoting LargoFl:
i hope your right, we really need the rain in central florida huh


The vast majority of models still persist in keeping the ridge in place for next week over central Florida once that disturbance pushes well east of us.
Quoting hydrus:
t 0350 UTC on 25 April 2010, a strong storm was approaching Marion County in southeast Tennessee, which is part of the Morristown, Tennessee National Weather Service Forecast Office’s county warning area. Previous analysis by the forecaster indicated that the storm was not yet severe. However, the image here shows the lightning source densities (lower left) surged to over 200 sources while previous lightning data showed far fewer sources and other observations (radar and probability of severe hail) showed no change at this time. This lightning jump prompted the issuing of a severe thunderstorm warning that ultimately had a 20 minute lead time of severe winds near Jasper, Tennessee at 0410 UTC. The total lightning data helped “tip the scales” on issuing this particular warning.


Interesting reasoning for a warning decision process. Would be interested to see this objectively analyzed as a set technique for a peer-reviewed paper, with corresponding FAR/POD/CSI stats.
Lightning typically corresponds to your areas of particularly high VIL or VILD, and many times also corresponds to the ice formation in the storm's core. This can be seen visually if you have GR2Analyst with lightning data in a placefile, then watch storm tracks with VIL/VILD/POSH. I suppose a hypothesis could be made that the sudden jump in lightning density was corresponding to a strengthening storm core, which may not have manifested on radar for another few minutes until 1) the growing ice particles turned into water-coated hail to increase DBZ, or 2) until the increase in ice formation lead to an increase of falling/melting ice, thus heavier rainfall.
Mother Nature has been so great this Spring Break week in my part of Louisiana. It's been fantastic weather for all the yard work I've been doing, from planting flowers, clearing land, moving a gazebo, building patios to laying pavers. More to do today, though each day it is getting a bit warmer. Hope everyone has a wonderful Friday!
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
BY WED...MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE
MAY AFFECT THE REGION...NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST THOUGH.
.


Where on Earth are they getting that idea from. All of the models have this wave pushing towards the Bahama's and eventually out to sea by early next week-nowhere's near the Gulf, much less approaching Texas lol!!!
409 presslord: I am notorious for walking out of restaurants which don't serve local shrimp....

Another thing to think about is where those locally caught shrimp are processed.
A few years back, there was quite a kerfluffle in the British press about shrimp caught in British waters being shipped to Thailand for processing (much cheaper labor), then shipped back to the UK and sold as "fresh locally caught shrimp" in restaurants and food markets.

Somewhat the same problem with locally grown organic produce... with growers in states such as California importing their natural fertilizer from cattle feedlots in the Midwest.
So it *definitely* won't be raining today in Houston. Insane cap overhead right now.

Per the RUC soundings...
Surface - 72F (dewpoint of 68F)
954mb (1700ft) - 66F (dewpoint of 66F)
893mb (3600ft) - 65F (dewpoint of 65F)
850mb (4957ft) - 70F (dewpoint of 6F)
801mb (6640ft) - 69F (dewpoint of -3F)
*slightly* dry layer of air at 4000+ feet. And a strong inversion. No rain for us today. :(
442. mati
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No they aren't. At least no credible scientists.

That really is nothing more than purely speculative opinion. Not only that, but it also makes non-falsifiable claims and uses them to support the argument, which pretty much rules out this article coming from a verifiable source. Official scientific reports including ones done by the Union of Concerned Scientists and TORCH do not cite anywhere close to that number, and those reports were produced fairly recently (2005 and 2006). If you have a reputable study that shows otherwise then please include the link.

Things have improved considerably since the accident. The only life that hasn't returned on a permanent basis is human life. You can even get guided tours which take you through the town.

Radiation does not equal guaranteed death or illness. If it did, no one would bother eating salt substitute or have fire detectors in their home. Humans are not fragile creatures that dissolve suddenly when hit by a stray alpha particle, nor do we sprout tumors because we eat bananas.

There are facts when it comes to radiation exposure, and then there is fiction. However, like another topic of discussion on this blog, there is far more fiction than fact.


Agreed ... The facts rarely get in the way of radiation fears:

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/features/chernobyl -15/cherno-faq.shtml

I was bombarded by much more radiation than Chernobyl or Fukushima by the U.S. government in the 40s and 50s with their nuclear blasts along with all the other countries who did above ground nuclear testing.....

http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/library/media-ga llery/image/testing/plumbbob.htm


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thank you Keeper. Looks like some pockets of energy out on the waters....worth watching for the next week.
Quoting Neapolitan:
A messy weekend (and beginning of the week) looks to be in store for the Bahamas and the southern parts of Florida:

Miami


Then the ridge wins the battle Tuesday onward:)
Re: Radiation fears -

The biggest issues at hand with Fukushima is the isotopes that have long half-lives (Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 come to mind) that can be easily absorbed into the human body... and mimic other substances with their actions. Also, TEPCO and the regulators in the Japanese government have not been exactly forthcoming with information regarding the disaster. Understating events, and placing more focus on saving face than doing the right thing. When you're in over your head in a disaster, you don't spend 3 days trying to absolve everyone of fault - you ASK FOR HELP.

The spent fuel pools at Fukushima are by far the greatest risk. They are in a rather precarious position, nearly full, and have MOX, which can catch fire if left uncooled, creating a disaster that would make Chernobyl look like a walk in the park.

(yes, I know I'm likely responding out of context, since I haven't read the original post, but I'm just adding my $.02)
Quoting Tribucanes:
certain communities in last years outbreak were under a no-survival strike. Meaning unless you were underground or in a tornado safe-room death was imminent. Technology has now come full circle, we know when and where these monsters are.

No, that description is not accurate. In some cases, we are able to determine that a tornado is very likely a significant tornado (defined as >EF2), but it is very difficult, with large error bars, to narrow down information about the tornado. Tornado width does not always correlate to damage potential and realtime estimates of tornado intensity (such as weak/strong/violent) are notoriously less-than-accurate. To say that we've made some giant leap and "we know when and where" to the degree you are suggesting is not a supported statement.
Quoting Tribucanes:

I'm advocating a drive away plan for survival... watching the Tuscaloosa tornado leads me to believe many could have survived by getting in their vehicles and driving five miles in the opposite direction of the tornado.

And what happens when the extrapolated tornado track no longer becomes valid and the tornado shifts? Or if folks on the roads drive from one tornado track right into another, or into a life-threatening RFD which can roll cars? What happens when everyone gets on the roads, traffic becomes heavy, and then many people are trapped, if not simply blocking the path for emergency responders and spotters?
Quoting Tribucanes:

My aim is to save one or more from this most unfortunate beast of nature. The sad truth is, many did the right thing; they enacted their emergency plan. They went to an interior closet and covered themselves and loved ones; it was just their day. Had they got in their vehicles and drove away they would still be with us.

Perhaps this plan would save a few people. But if it also leads to the deaths of others, then it wouldn't really be "saving" anyone. We may hear of stories where people survived by leaving their homes, but perhaps not reported as often are statistics of how many people die away from their homes during tornadoes. Every time the May 1999 OKC tornado crossed the interstate, someone was seriously injured or died. Even during violent tornadoes, the statistics are still heavily in favor of those who choose lowest floor interior room instead of vehicles.

*This post has been slightly edited since originally posted, but main points were unchanged.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A 4-day tornado outbreak. 358 tornadoes. 349 fatalities. April 27, 2011 was the peak of the event. 292 tornadoes were reported across 21 states on this date one year ago, of which 208 were confirmed.

The largest and costliest tornado outbreak in USA history.

4 EF5's.



You can see 3 of the EF5 producing supercells in this frame. I wonder if they have put this radar image in any text books yet. The Tuscaloosa radar image is probably one of the better images you can use to teach someone the parts of a tornado producing supercell that are indicated on radar. The outflow, inflow, and even the debris from the tornado is easily identified.
In other news it seems as you are all aware that we have been upgraded to a medium risk. 15% and hatched area probabilities for tornadoes is not to be taken lightly.
Quoting weatherbro:


Where on Earth are they getting that idea from. All of the models have this wave pushing towards the Bahama's and eventually out to sea by early next week-nowhere's near the Gulf, much less approaching Texas lol!!!



Lol. Ya got me. I don't see it on the models either. Although it would be nice if it did come this way. They were still on it this morning.

BEYOND THIS TIME...AGREEMENT AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORTWAVE
DETAILS DECLINES SHARPLY. PREVIOUS FCST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK INVERTED TROF...AND THIS
IS STILL DEPICTED IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
..THOUGH THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE EXCITED THAN THE ECMWF REGARDING QPF
POTENTIAL...APPARENTLY SINCE IT CONCURRENTLY EJECTS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LET THIS 20 PERCENT RIDE AND
MAINTAIN A DRY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WITH SSE
RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 OVER THE EXTREME W WATERS FROM 24N-27N W OF
96W...AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 89W.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N AND EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS SAT...THEN RE-ORIENTATE SE-SW FROM THE
SC TO NE TX. ELY WINDS WILL PULSE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF
THROUGH SAT...THEN AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAY SAL BANK LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WINDS
BUT THE GFS AND ECM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE TRACK WHICH MOVES
THE TROUGH TO ALONG 87W LATE MON NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
GEFS AND GFSP FOR THE STRENGTH...AND HOLD WINDS AT 15-20 KT. THE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WNW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS TUE.
I agree with 446 ScottLincoln's assessment, yet I find myself mostly disagreeing with: If you are in a car and a tornado is approaching, get out and lie in a ditch. If a ditch isn't available, lie on the ground.

Comparing the damage to cars that have been moved by tornadoes with the damage to cars that have been involved in traffic accidents, I strongly suspect that the safety equipment in cars is FAR more likely to provide protection from tornado injury&death than lying in a ditch or on the ground.
ie The advice may have been valid before seat belts and modern safety design&equipment -- when roofs crushed easily and drivers&passengers were commonly tossed out of vehicles by collisions -- but is mostly being passed along as longheld "folk wisdom" even though it is no longer wise.

Though to a lesser extent... same thing with "When a tornado is near, pull over, get out of your car and into a gas station or convenience store."
Quoting aspectre:
I agree with ScottLincoln assessment, yet I find myself wondering about (and mostly disagreeing with):
If you are in a car and a tornado is approaching, get out and lie in a ditch. If a ditch isn't available, lie on the ground.
Considering the conditions of the cars that have been moved by tornadoes with the conditions of cars that have been involved in traffic accidents, I strongly suspect that the safety equipment in cars is FAR more likely to provide protection from tornado injury&death than lying in a ditch or on the ground.


In a ditch, the most severe winds are above you. Most debris will probably just blow past. It's not a sure thing for survival, but much higher odds than standing up, even.

Cars are designed to protect you from many crashes, but crashes are an instantaneous incident. All of the momentum is dissipated within a few seconds and that's the end. You can still die from accidents like this even if your car is held together - a certain amount of dissipated momentum can cause near instant, fatal bodily injury. Then take a tornado... it probably wont just cause one instantaneous momentum dissipation, but many, as your car is rolled or carried, hitting various things along the way. Cars are not designed for such an event.

I would hypothesize that the ditch is still safer, although I bet the statistics might be out there is some form or another. Just remember - anecdotes of someone surviving in a car and someone dying in a ditch is not sufficient, as the probability of fatality is not zero for any of these shelter choices.
Quoting aspectre:
I agree with ScottLincoln assessment, yet I find myself wondering about (and mostly disagreeing with):
If you are in a car and a tornado is approaching, get out and lie in a ditch. If a ditch isn't available, lie on the ground.
Considering the conditions of the cars that have been moved by tornadoes with the conditions of cars which have been in accidents, I strongly suspect that the safety equipment in cars is FAR more likely to provide protection from tornado injury&death than lying in a ditch or on the ground.
Well I'm pretty sure air bags will not deploy when you are hit by a tornado. Think of it like this. You have been shrunk and were put in a soda can. Then lets say that a foot is our debris and tornado. If you kick the can around it dents and collapses leaving a bunch of inward facing spikes that could potentially kill you. Now lets say you are out of the can and are laying in a crack between the tiles. The foot tries to kick and stomp at you but it cant reach you. This is a poor example but it is kind of what comes to mind with me when someone brings up the Car v Ditch conversation. Also its simple surface area and in a car your surface area is the cars which is quite large and will be thrown around. While if you lay flat on the ground you have very little surface area and the wind is not able to pick you up because the wind is not able to get under you. I believe that is the thinking behind it.
Well said, and point taken. Was only advocating this in the case of monsters that are 20+ minutes out of F4 or larger status. Ones that are being broadcast and long tracking in a known direction. It seems to me every year there are several that meet these criteria. Yet if this were advised I understand human nature and human error would come into play, and people would start to do this in the wrong situations. Girlfriend or wife taking this not as serious was a good reply too. Five years ago at 1:45 in the morning we were under a tornado warning here in Wisconsin. It was within a five mile radius of us. Went outside saw the wall cloud circulating through the lighting, it was impressively ominous. Wife's Grandmother lived across the street at the time and had a bomb shelter. I got her sister out immediately. My wife didn't take it seriously and wouldn't get up. I pleaded, got annoyed, finally picked her up and headed that way. Easily five minutes had passed, had it struck we would have been screwed. And in the case of last years super outbreak driving away from one monster could have easily put you in the path of another, because they were literally everywhere; another excellent point. Thanks again, just was appalled at the death toll in Tuscaloosa with the time they were given. Was thinking this would be applicable in 1/100 tornadoes. I am now thinking not.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A 4-day tornado outbreak. 358 tornadoes. 349 fatalities. April 27, 2011 was the peak of the event. 292 tornadoes were reported across 21 states on this date one year ago, of which 208 were confirmed.

The largest and costliest tornado outbreak in USA history.


Not quite. There was not a continuous series of tornadoes over that 4 days, and as such, it was a tornado outbreak sequence, not a single tornado outbreak. This has been confused many many times and has led to improper comparisons between last spring's big event and previous outbreaks.

There remains a larger proportion of violent tornadoes in the April 1974 outbreak than the April 27 2011 outbreak.
Quoting aspectre:
I agree with 446 ScottLincoln's assessment, yet I find myself mostly disagreeing with: If you are in a car and a tornado is approaching, get out and lie in a ditch. If a ditch isn't available, lie on the ground.
Comparint the damage to cars that have been moved by tornadoes with the damage to cars that have been involved in traffic accidents, I strongly suspect that the safety equipment in cars is FAR more likely to provide protection from tornado injury&death than lying in a ditch or on the ground.
ie The advice may have been valid before seat belts and modern safety design&equipment -- when roofs crushed easily and drivers&passengers were commonly tossed out of vehicles by collisions -- but is mostly being passed along as longheld "folk wisdom" even though it is no longer wise.
Um... have you seen what happens to a car in a tornado? Incredible amounts of blunt-force trauma. An airbag isn't going to do a dang thing when you are rolled down a street. Or tossed into a tree. Or thrown against a house.

Safety equipment is designed to keep you safe IN A CAR ACCIDENT. It is designed to absorb certain impacts in a certain manner. In a tornado, you will be getting impacts from all directions - frequently at the same time.

Also, you have not addressed most of ScottLincoln's concens in your post.

What about the traffic?
What about traffic and wreckage preventing emergency vehicles from reaching those in need?
What about running from one storm only to meet another?
What about RFDs?

Simply put, staying in your car during a tornado is foolhardy, selfish, and short-sighted. If you look at it through a microscope, its a good idea. But if you open your eyes and look at the whole picture, you will see that is definitely not a good idea - there is a reason it has been officially recommended against for years.

That said, if you choose to stay in your car during a tornado, by all means, go for it. While I wouldn't wish ill upon anyone, especially their death, I'm sure that someone staying in their car during a tornado is more likely to end up as a Darwin award recipient, than someone who got into a ditch.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Was only advocating this in the case of monsters that are 20+ minutes out of F4 or larger status.

Which you have no way of determining in realtime.
Quoting Tribucanes:

Ones that are being broadcast and long tracking in a known direction. It seems to me every year there are several that meet these criteria.

Look at an actual, surveyed tornado track, not a start-point-to-end-point track. Tornado tracks may appear relatively straight, but move around on the neighborhood scale. As such, down-to-the-neighborhood (and even town, in some cases) scale is just not forecastable.
Quoting Tribucanes:

Was thinking this would be applicable in 1/100 tornadoes. I am now thinking not.

Even if it were, we wouldn't know the 1/100 tornado with high certainty, and people in the 99/100 tornadoes would try it too, potentially increasing the death toll.
Visualizing the End of Oil-grim but gorgeous Link
And on my post# 454... my apologies if I offended anyone. I freely admit that when a statement strikes a nerve, I kinda "go off", and my blunt self becomes very verbose and direct. That rubs some people wrong. But I definitely get my point across...
Quoting jeffs713:
If you look at it through a microscope, its a good idea. But if you open your eyes and look at the whole picture, you will see that is definitely not a good idea - there is a reason it has been officially recommended against for years.

Which, oddly enough, is how most people misinterpret statistics to confuse weather and climate.
I see parallels in this kind of stuff all the time, almost daily.

Well it was cold last week -> I heard of a person who outran a tornado

instead of...

Most places are experiencing warmer temperatures at an increase rate -> More people will die in the open or in vehicles than those on lowest floor, interior room.
Quoting jeffs713:
And on my post# 454... my apologies if I offended anyone. I freely admit that when a statement strikes a nerve, I kinda "go off", and my blunt self becomes very verbose and direct. That rubs some people wrong. But I definitely get my point across...

You aren't the only one.
Quoting mati:


Agreed ... The facts rarely get in the way of radiation fears:

http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/features/chernobyl -15/cherno-faq.shtml

I was bombarded by much more radiation than Chernobyl or Fukushima by the U.S. government in the 40s and 50s with their nuclear blasts along with all the other countries who did above ground nuclear testing.....

http://www.nuclearfiles.org/menu/library/media-ga llery/image/testing/plumbbob.htm


Yes...they were very "relaxed" about exposing our soldiers and others to huge amounts of radiation back then.
Quoting Grothar:


Cool image. Models want to do something with it, but nothing grand. Upper levels too hostile. But, being April and with such a concentration in the Caribbean, certainly interesting to see.
If my original post was read correctly, I was not and would never advocate running from a tornado in a car when it's ANYWHERE near you. I was talking about only when you had a 20 plus window before and E4 Or E5 long tracking monster hit. And to that point, Scott Lincoln cleared up my misstep in this thinking. His points are all valid and right on. I was looking for some input about whether or not this would save lives. I got it, yes it would save some, but likely, even more would be lost because of doing it. Was talking about 1/100 tornadoes where it's being broadcast, people have a large time window, and death is likely if not underground or in a safe room. Thanks Scott your points are well taken and informative to the dangers of this strategy.
Inre 454 jeffs713, I fail to see how anybody could possibly take offense with what you said. More later, but thanks for quoting my corrected version (added some of the reasoning behind my disagreement)
Jeffs many of us here are very direct in our communication style. It would be boring and probably far less informative if Btype communication styles were all we had here. Lot of alpha lions wandering Wunderground, occasionally we're going to growl at each other. The discourse here is usually though very polite and differences respected, I think that's pretty cool.
Quoting fmbill:


Cool image. Models want to do something with it, but nothing grand. Upper levels too hostile. But, being April and with such a concentration in the Caribbean, certainly interesting to see.


Looks like the Bahamas may get a good soaking. We are having the Air Show in Fort Lauderdale this weekend. They have spent tons of money on it. It was cancelled one year because it rained. The vendors and promoters lost a fortune. It is very overcast here already.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Jeffs many of us here are very direct in our communication style. It would be boring and probably far less informative if Btype communication styles were all we had here. Lot of alpha lions wandering Wunderground, occasionally we're going to growl at each other. The discourse here is usually though very polite and differences respected, I think that's pretty cool.


I never lose my temper.
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the Bahamas may get a good soaking. We are having the Air Show in Fort Lauderdale this weekend. They have spent tons of money on it. It was cancelled one year because it rained. The vendors and promoters lost a fortune. It is very overcast here already.


It's hard to pray against rain this time of year, especially in Florida! But, I hope your event does well.

I'll be in Ft Lauderdale next month for the Governor's Hurricane Conference. I go every year. Beautiful city!
OLD BLOG
Yellow indicates very cold cloud tops. With all that shear it is surprising to see this.



Grothar I hear you've had hundreds of years to perfect your calm demeanor. When you were riding on your little donkey with the rest of Gengeis Khans men breaching the Great Wall of China, I heard it was a much different story. :)
Quoting Grothar:


I never lose my temper.

You just call in orbital strikes or something similar.
Quoting fmbill:


It's hard to pray against rain this time of year, especially in Florida! But, I hope your event does well.

I'll be in Ft Lauderdale next month for the Governor's Hurricane Conference. I go every year. Beautiful city!


Are you a Governor? They are having it at the Broward County Convention Center. Maybe I will see you there. I will be easy to identify. I will be the only one there not losing his temper. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Are you a Governor? They are having it at the Broward County Convention Center. Maybe I will see you there. I will be easy to identify. I will be the only one there not losing his temper. :)


LOL!!! No. Just a guy in charge of emergency management for his city.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



Lol. Ya got me. I don't see it on the models either. Although it would be nice if it did come this way. They were still on it this morning.

BEYOND THIS TIME...AGREEMENT AND THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORTWAVE
DETAILS DECLINES SHARPLY. PREVIOUS FCST INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAK INVERTED TROF...AND THIS
IS STILL DEPICTED IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
..THOUGH THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE EXCITED THAN THE ECMWF REGARDING QPF
POTENTIAL...APPARENTLY SINCE IT CONCURRENTLY EJECTS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL LET THIS 20 PERCENT RIDE AND
MAINTAIN A DRY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT FRI APR 27 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE TX COASTAL BEND WITH SSE
RETURN FLOW AT 15-20 OVER THE EXTREME W WATERS FROM 24N-27N W OF
96W...AND E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE W OF 89W.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N AND EXTENDS E-W ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS SAT...THEN RE-ORIENTATE SE-SW FROM THE
SC TO NE TX. ELY WINDS WILL PULSE AT 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF
THROUGH SAT...THEN AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CAY SAL BANK LATE SAT NIGHT AND EARLY SUN.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON STRENGTH OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL WINDS
BUT THE GFS AND ECM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE TRACK WHICH MOVES
THE TROUGH TO ALONG 87W LATE MON NIGHT. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF
GEFS AND GFSP FOR THE STRENGTH...AND HOLD WINDS AT 15-20 KT. THE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT CONTINUES WNW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS TUE.


Oh they mean an inverted trough. Those are coastal troughs created by onshore winds coupled with land and sea differences. They usually form on the SE quadrant of intense high pressure systems along(or just off of) coastal plains facing the east. I'm assuming The Central Waters is what y'all refer to as the central Texas coastline?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Grothar I hear you've had hundreds of years to perfect your calm demeanor. When you were riding on your little donkey with the rest of Gengeis Khans men breaching the Great Wall of China, I heard it was a much different story. :)


I would often tell him he needed relaxation therapy so he wouldn't be angry all the time. He obviously didn't listen.
Quoting fmbill:


LOL!!! No. Just a guy in charge of emergency management for his city.


Now that is interesting. I should write to you off-blog and tell you some of the methods we have implemented here in Broward since Wilma. We could exchange ideas.
Moisture field just touching the extreme S.E.Florida coastline now.
Quoting Grothar:


Now that is interesting. I should write to you off-blog and tell you some of the methods we have implemented here in Broward since Wilma. We could exchange ideas.


Sounds good to me.
Quoting jeffs713:

You just call in orbital strikes or something similar.


An insult can often be hidden under a veil of a compliment. It is quite often much more effective and lasts longer. You are probably too young to remember William F. Buckley. He was a master of the art, similar to Churchill.
482. MTWX
NEW BLOG
Quoting MTWX:
NEW BLOG

^
/ \
/ \
|
|
|

What He said...
484. etxwx
Quoting Grothar:


You are probably too young to remember William F. Buckley. He was a master of the art, similar to Churchill.


Ahhh...I remember William F. Buckley. He was the epitome of erudite elucidation.

Uh oh, I'm beginning to suspect Grothar and I are equally ancient.
Are Category 6 Hurricanes Coming Soon?
Tropical cyclones like Irene are predicted to be more powerful this year, thanks to natural conditions, but researchers disagree on how to rate that intensity.

Atmospheric researchers tend to agree that tropical cyclones of unusual ferocity are coming this century, but the strange fact is that there is no consensus to date on the five-point scale used to classify the power of these anticipated storms. In what may sound like a page from the script of the rock-band spoof Spinal Tap with its reference to a beyond-loud electric guitar amplifier volume 11, there is actually talk of adding a sixth level to the current Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, on which category 5 intensity means sustained winds higher than 155 miles per hour (250 kilometers per hour) for at least one minute, with no speed cap.

The lack of an upper limit on the scale results in all of the most intense tropical cyclones getting lumped together, despite their wide range of power. Category 5 becomes less descriptive when it includes 2005's Emily, which reached peak wind speeds of 257.5 kph (160 mph) and six hours in category 5; the same year's Katrina which held peak wind velocity of 280 kph (175 mph) for 18 hours in the category; and 1980's Allen, churning with peak winds at 305 kph (190 mph) maintained for 72 hours in the highest category.

And now the ferocity forecast for the century adds to this classification problem. "The severe hurricanes might actually become worse. We may have to invent a category 6," says David Enfield, a senior scientist at the University of Miami and former physical oceanographer at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This new level wouldn't be an arbitrary relabeling. Global satellite data from the past 40 years indicate that the net destructive potential of hurricanes has increased, and the strongest hurricanes are becoming more common—especially in the Atlantic. This trend could be related to warmer seas or it could simply be history repeating itself. Data gathered earlier than the 1970s, although unreliable, show cycles of quiet decades followed by active ones. The quiet '60s, '70s and '80s ended in 1995, the year that brought Felix and Opal, among others, and resulted in $13 billion in damages and more than 100 deaths in the U.S.

The pros and cons of categories: Five or six?
The average difference between the current categories equals nearly 20 mph, so a category 6 label would likely be applied to hurricanes with sustained winds over (280 kph) 175 mph. The speed and destruction of hypothetical "category 6" storms is speculative, despite the hurricanes with winds at that level.

After all, meteorologists and climate researchers may not even choose a category 5 storm from the record books if asked to identify the most powerful tropical cyclone in history, because the Saffir–Simpson scale fixates on maximum wind speed lasting for at least one minute and disregards the many other large-scale components that factor into a storm's level of devastation. The whole index should be thrown out the hurricane-proof window, some say.

"If I could do it, I would do away with categories," says Bill Read, director of NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC). "The whole indexing [of hurricanes] was done back in the '60s and '70s when we had no way to convey the variables of damage that the storm did. We didn't measure it that carefully; we didn't have the tools."

Even nowadays, instruments to measure actual wind speed are often destroyed during extreme storms, so estimates have to be extrapolated from satellite images and other data. Actual observations can also be suspect. It took 14 years for the World Meteorological Organization to acknowledge that an anemometer in Australia recorded a world record wind speed of 407 kph (253 mph) during Tropical Cyclone Olivia in 1996. Wind speed science has improved over the years. Since the 1990s direct wind measurements from hurricane-hunter aircraft have replaced central pressure measurements, which were often a proxy for wind speeds.

Variables used by meteorologists and climatologists to assess damage can go beyond wind speeds to include duration over land and the extent of deadly storm surges. Read sums it up this way: "Size matters: Katrina, Rita, Ike—all of them made landfall at a 2 or 3 level, but look at the damage they caused. Obviously a category did not accurately describe the impact."

A transition to "impact forecasting" began last year when NOAA's National Hurricane Center simplified the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale and renamed it the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. This change involved stripping away the scale's former central pressure, flooding and storm surge estimates. These factors among others are now forecast separately. In 2009 the National Weather Service began using new probability models that provide storm surge estimates ranging from 0.6 to 7.6 meters (two to 25 feet).

What the future holds
History keeps us guessing about where and when the next big tropical cyclone will hit on the U.S. Atlantic or Gulf coasts. As for the most powerful hurricane ever, experts are divided. Some say 1998's Gilbert.; an official answer from a NOAA Web site lists three: 1969's Camille, 1980's Allen and 2005's Wilma (the World Meteorological Organization agrees with the latter).

William Gray, professor emeritus of atmospheric science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins and the "grandfather" of annual hurricane season forecasting, picked the category 4 Great Miami Hurricane of 1926. NHC Director Read went with an unnamed Caribbean hurricane from 1780.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30 annually, is predicted to produce more and stronger storms than average this year, although active years have been the norm since 1995. That year the Atlantic entered a period of warm sea-surface temperatures of what is called the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, and such cycles typically last two to three decades.

"If the future is like the past, we should have another 10 to 15 years of this active period," Gray says.

This oscillation means the Atlantic is expected to cool in the future, obscuring links among hurricane activity and global warming. Perhaps counterintuitively, recent computer modeling studies predict fewer tropical cyclones if the ocean heats up further as a result of global warming. But they also predict intensification of the ones that do form, albeit with limited confidence. Frequency drops by 6 to 34 percent this century, according to 2010 review article in Nature Geoscience, whereas intensity rises 2 to 11 percent. (Scientific American is part of Nature Publishing Group.)

Today, water is a bigger concern than the wind when it comes to property destruction and loss of life. Look for more emphasis on storm surges in future forecasts, because it is the main reason why evacuations become necessary. Many planners suggest following Read's prescription: "In the U.S. 'Run from the water, hide from the wind' is pretty good, simple advice."

As for the addition of a new category 6, Read insists it is not needed. "I'd be totally opposed to that, even if they did get stronger," he says. "I'll fight 'em tooth and nail under my regime. We'll keep what we have now, but I'm going to focus more on the impacts."

From ScientificAmerican.com