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Ex-TD 7 reawakening; Gordon Azores-bound; 94L may be a long-range threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on August 17, 2012

Satellite loops show that a small area of disturbed weather with an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms has developed in southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, in association with the remnants of Tropical Depression Seven. Heavy rains from ex-TD-7 are beginning to impact the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz, and radar from Mexico shows some rotation to the echoes, but little in the way of spiral banding. With wind shear a light 5 -10 knots and very warm ocean waters of 30°C to take advantage of, ex-TD-7 has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it makes landfall over the Mexican coast on Saturday, said NHC in their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate ex-TD-7 this afternoon around 2 pm EDT. Ex-TD-7's west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through landfall, and the storm may be capable of bringing heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the Mexican coast near Tampico. Brownsville, Texas should stay just north of the heavy rain area of ex-TD-7.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of ex-TD 7.

Tropical Storm Gordon heads toward the Azores
Tropical Storm Gordon continues eastwards towards the Azores, and is not a threat to any other land areas. Satellite loops show Gordon has a respectable amount of organization and heavy thunderstorm activity. Gordon's environment has gotten marginal for a hurricane--wind shear is moderate, 10 - 20 knots, and ocean temperatures are near 26.5°C, which is right at the border of where hurricanes can usually exist. Water vapor satellite loops show a large region of dry air on the south side of the storm. The 8 am EDT run of the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will remain moderate through Saturday night, then rise steeply to 30 - 40 knots on Sunday. At the same time, ocean temperatures will drop to 25°C. By Sunday, the combined effects of high wind shear, dry air, and cooler waters will likely act to weaken Gordon and make it no longer tropical. However, Gordon will probably still be strong enough Sunday night to potentially bring damaging winds and heavy rain to the Azores Islands. The extratropical remnants of Gordon will not bring any strong winds or significant rain to Europe.


Figure 2. Tropical Storm Gordon as seen by NASA's Terra satellite at 10:25 am EDT August 16, 2012. At the time, Gordon was strengthening, with 50 mph top winds. Image credit: NASA.

94L developing off the coast of Africa
A large tropical wave emerged from the coast of Africa Thursday night, and was designated Invest 94L by NHC this Friday morning. The models have been very gung-ho on this system, and develop it into a tropical storm by the middle of next week. 94L will follow a west to west-northwest track over the next week, and may threaten the northern Lesser Antilles Islands as early as Friday, August 24. This storm could eventually affect Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, or Canada 10 - 14 days from now, but could also recurve harmlessly out to sea well before reaching the Lesser Antilles, as suggested by the 00 UTC run of the GFS model. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Invest 94L taken at 8 am EDT August 17, 2012, off the coast of Africa. Image credit: NASA.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

RECON...They're flying low enough, it looks like, to be able to see the coastline as they approach it...

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


THAT'S WHY I ALWAYS FEAR THE "I" STORM
WOW that could be horrible. almost like irene last year
Quoting ncstorm:


Oh Issac..we maybe looking at a monster in the making..
Mmmhmmm(silently eats grape's..)
Quoting ncstorm:
this also could explain why they think its going into Mexico and dissipate..the ensembles are pretty cluster and showing it going into mexico with one outlier heading NE



Figures.

The out-lier is a bee-line for NOLA.

"I don't always turn east, but when I do...I do NOLA."
1005. ncstorm
Quoting louisianaboy444:


Yes, but i thought that white line is the operational...that one has it just spinning around in Central Mexico


this was the 12z today..




Quoting CybrTeddy:
The real long range threat. Issac might live up to his name, model support is very strong and unanimous on a CV hurricane.


We've had the Issac name for a while though... Current models project a fish storm, for the most part.

At what point does this become a major hurricane?
NOT good two one of the 12Z
1008. ncstorm
18z run looks to be like the 12z run..

GOOD NIGHT GORDON...
Quoting ncstorm:
18z run looks to be like the 12z run..



Has Helene just sitting there in the BOC
Quoting ncstorm:


this was the 12z today..




excuse me if im wrong but is helene over us in louisiana on that run?
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


THAT'S WHY I ALWAYS FEAR THE "I" STORM



OMG...

Look at the size of the 1010mb range...it's enormous.

I guess if it verifies it will continue the tradition of "I" storms being huge monsters, as always...
What is that in the GOM?!?!?

Quoting stormpetrol:
Now for that dreaded "I" name long lived Cape Verde Hurricane, usually a Caribbean cruiser ending up in the Gulf of CA, a Bermuda or East Coast , Canadian maritime threat, the big? Which will it be?


How about this?

one of the 12Z
GOM
1016. Gearsts
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NOT good two one of the 12Z
And look at that high been pump! ;)
Now, not to sound mean and no offense, if most people keep spelling Isaac wrong( its Isaac not Issac). You're gonna have a bad time, I'm too lazy and in a hurry to make the meme.
I have a great deal of confidence in the NHC since Rick Knabb is the Director. I actually met him once. I think he's an excellent, but a conservative forecaster. I believe this is why we see the NHC taking their time with colored circles and naming systems in the Atlantic this year.
On a related topic, how many of our 8 NSs have made landfall [or are projected to make] somewhere in the basin???

At this rate we're gonna run out of "I" names soon
1021. ncstorm
Quoting louisianaboy444:


True I think homegrown development will be my only chance of getting a storm these big ones wont be heading to the gulf..a trough here a trough there....this is 2012 not years past..


I dont know the CMC had it as a hurricane..with the BOC, they spin up so quickly..look at today..a tropical storm already and the GFS has it sitting there spinning for some time
Quoting WxGeekVA:


How about this?



Lol yeah right
Quoting Gearsts:
OMG memories! But it was 1 in a lifetime experience in a cool way.


Yes, in 1998 i was 9 years old and i remember like it was now here in DR was a disaster
Quoting WxGeekVA:


How about this?

No one wants to relive that monster again...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
one of the 12Z
GOM


in this frame,

is the storm turning NE or still heading W???
No who do you not see on that
Quoting Gearsts:
And look at that high been pump! ;)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
one of the 12Z
GOM


3 systems below 1000 mb at once... ladies and gentlemen the peak of the season has begun
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
one of the 12Z
GOM
uh dont show that again please. Im not even thinking of that coming to us. that crazy!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
one of the 12Z
GOM


I like this one :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Kind of forgot the 18z GFS is running, lol. 72 hours:


lol a 1008mb Kenny
Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L is absolutely massive.

Most of the intensity models bring 94L up to at least Category 2 status in 120hrs.
Might become a cat 4.btw anyone know what is the earliest we can know if Ernesto reach cat 2 intensity? or we will need to wait for the TCR to come out?
Some of the GFS ensemble members show DOOM with potential Isaac if that were to verify you can kiss Isaac bye forever as it would be retired after this season. It would complete a trifecta of "I" storms being retired.
Quoting bigwes6844:
excuse me if im wrong but is helene over us in louisiana on that run?


I think so, but if it is not Helene then it must be the J or K storm, depending on what happens in the Eastern Atlantic...

Yeah...it's a TS, but may or may not be Helene...

I mentioned that earlier, it's just unclear to me what the Model is doing through the middle part of the run, and I lost track of where Helene went and how this TS forms during the model run...
90 hours on the 18z GFS:

18Z 90HR
1036. ncstorm
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
90 hours on the 18z GFS:



Im sorry I cant do those colors..LOL..it may be slower but I dont have to strain my eyes to see the mb..

96 hours

Quoting WxGeekVA:


How about this?


Now that was a fun storm to track. Don't get me wrong, I don't want there to be death and destruction and such, but if it were just me affected, I wouldn't mind experiencing that again.
Quoting Felix2007:


3 systems below 1000 mb at once... ladies and gentlemen the peak of the season has begun
Agree we might get Joyce or even Kirk before the month is out.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Go Gordon Go.
Still looks like it might get to hurricane overnight, before the worst of the shear rips at it...

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Wunderkid Stated that it would reform in the caribbean... I get where you're going with it... But we thought it was pretty obvious he wanted it to reform in the caribbean... Near the Caymans... As usual.
His big deal was that it wasn't finished. Again, there have been enough storms coalesce in that area to allow his ideas to be realistic. I agree with kman [again... lol] he wasn't completely right, but give him credit. [Think it was the same w/ Bery; right on formation, wrong on location... maybe he should be the WKC Cyclogenesis Prediction Model... lol]
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmhmmm(silently eats grape's..)


If Isaac becomes this big storm this year you are hoping for, and it kills people and does tons of damage, even knowing that you would not wish this on anyone...
Quoting ncstorm:


Im sorry I cant do those colors..LOL..it may be slower but I dont have to strain my eyes to see the mb..

How about this one? :P

Quoting Felix2007:
96 hours



Has Helene reemerging
I have to admit, I'm a little less confident about an early recurve than yesterday and this morning, lol.
1046. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
How about this one? :P



uggh..horrible..LOL!!..I like the serenity green..
1047. Gearsts
Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes, in 1998 i was 9 years old and i remember like it was now here in DR was a disaster
I was 7 :(
1048. ncstorm
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%
108HR not good
I think this Cape Verde storm will take a track similar to Earl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%


30%, gotta have an orange circle cmon...
18z gfs has Helene briefly making landfall in mexico than reemerges over water
Quoting ncstorm:


uggh..horrible..LOL!!..I like the serenity green..
Well me and you can agree this one is ugly!

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
one of the 12Z
GOM


That's...not even the same storm as what's supposed to hit on the 24th, which may or may not be Helene...

Where is the wave/disturbance coming from for this model scenario??!

If I'm looking at that correctly, there are 4 named storms on the graphic simultaneously: one in the Gulf and 3 in the Atlantic..

Isn't that a tie for the record if it verifies!?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%

I choose B; 20%.
18z GFS 500mb Vort and Heights 108 hours out. Pretty far south this run, GFS actually has the Vort moving WSW for a few frames.

Also note this is the first time models are really excited about development this year...
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%


B.20%
WOW 18Z?? it not going N????
1062. ncstorm
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well me and you can agree this one is ugly!



some three year old got hold of the finger paint on that one..
1063. ncstorm
108 hours
18z GFS has no convective feedback and is significantly farther west.

Looks like a threat to the islands.
Umm, am I seeing this right?...brb I need to adjust my glasses.



1066. GetReal
Quoting IceCoast:
18z GFS 500mb Vort and Heights 108 hours out. Pretty far south this run, GFS actually has the Vort moving WSW for a few frames.




No trough in the EATL to turn it northward...
120 995MB
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%

Higher than 10%.
18Z GFS is scary so far. Lesser Antilles watch out.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Q. what will 94L be at 8PM
A.10%
B.20%
C.30%
D.40%
E.50%
F.60%
20 knowing the NHC they might go with 30 though.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
120 995MB


En espanol-------Oh Dios mio
In English-------oh my god
Who has the everyone panic gif?

1073. GetReal
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Umm, am I seeing this right?...brb I need to adjust my glasses.






If that Bermuda High remains in place it could very well become a Caribbean tracker towards the GOM.
126 hours
Quoting jascott1967:


If Isaac becomes this big storm this year you are hoping for, and it kills people and does tons of damage, even knowing that you would not wish this on anyone...


The size of a storm and damage can have no correlation. So far the gfs shows a big storm in the middle of Nowheresville, Atlantic Ocean. Ships can easily avoid this storm if they have the forecast well ahead of time.


Forgive me for being Captain obvious but a storm usually needs to affect land in order for it to cause damage.

Furthermore, big, moisture-rich storms that take the track through the middle of the Atlantic ocean can bring some beneficial rains to Europe and Russia. By that time they will be weak enough not to cause much damage.
Remember the 6z and 18z are not the 0z and 12z. Right?
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
120 995MB
Might be a landfall for the lesser antilles.
WPB
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
18z gfs has Helene briefly making landfall in mexico than reemerges over water

Do you see the NHC forecast track for Helene moving N ever?
Very impressive run


1081. wxmod
Anemic ice cap

Quoting Felix2007:
126 hours


And Helene just sitting there
i see SO far the 18z GFS shows 94L a CARRIBEANCRUISER??????
Quoting Felix2007:
126 hours
If this verify Isaac would probably have a big chance of retirement.
1085. ncstorm
We got Helene, Issac and pre-Joyce


18z GFS ENSEMBLE going to be fun lol!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Other than heavy rainfall if the NHC track verifies, Helene is no big deal. It's going to be Issac to watch out for as becoming our first major hurricane.
The big deal about Helene 4 me is TS structure may keep together enough rains to get into TX...

Quoting wxchaser97:

From the NHC discussion:
THE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.

Like that area needs more rain, the US needs it but if Helene re-emerges or never makes landfall it could spell some trouble for the US as well.
Actually I think that area N of Tampico DOES need the rain... Ernesto tracked further south.

Quoting Felix2007:
I remember a few days ago the GFS predicting a large hurricane just north of PR in 384 hours, I thought nothing of it since it was so far out, but it looks like they were right!!!
Well, the potential is certainly there... we'll see how things actually fall out...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yeah, I said early and often, though I expected a few more Gulf and West Caribbean storms, but half of them have been pop-ups on the east coast or central atlantic storms.

Sept 10/11 is middle of the season, and this is only Aug. 17, and we now have 8 named storms...

My thoughts of 15 to 16 named storms may yet be correct.

A few days ago I was doubting myself, but then there's been two more named since then, and looks like as many as 3 more names coming in the next 10 to 15 days...
Very much agree with all this... I'm still expecting a serious slowdown after the end of Sep, if not an actual halt to the season. But I think we're easily on track for another 7-8 before then...
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
One of the 12z ensemble members with Isaac... It has it meander around the SE coast for days then brings it up:

This scenario, the GFS run shown here, with a 962 mb hurricane off the northeast USA coast with closed isobars into the Ohio Valley, would wash my community, Seaside Heights, New Jersey, into the ocean. It would be worse than the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, far worse. When I have evacuated for previous hurricanes, I've always said see you later to the town. In this circumstance we'd be saying goodbye.
Quoting GetReal:



If that Bermuda High remains in place it could very well become a Caribbean tracker towards the GOM.
I'll tell you I'm very concerned for those in the islands, since that is only 5 days away and will probably be a Hurricane by the time it gets there.
18z gfs now has Helene moving very slowly NW towards the TX/Mexico border
If that model pans out Isaac is going to be a bad *** boy.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Umm, am I seeing this right?...brb I need to adjust my glasses.





Wooow..this is correct maybe the post a ensemble model of GFS MMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!
Looks like I could finally get my storm. But the problem is... THAT IT MAY BE TOO STRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Who has the everyone panic gif?



I do.

Past few "I" storms:

2011: IRENE* - 120mph C3 - Caused several billion dollars of damage along the east coast.
2010: IGOR* - 160mph C5 - Worst storm in Newfoundland history.
2009: IDA - 105mph C2 - Remnants became a destructive nor'easter.
2008: IKE* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Galveston.
2007: INGRID - 45mph TS - Fish storm torn apart by shear.
2006: ISAAC - 85mph C1 - Brushed Newfoundland.
2005: IRENE - 105mph C2 - Fish storm.
2004: IVAN* - 165mph C5 - Hit Florida as a C3.
2003: ISABEL* - 165mph C5 - Caused huge damage in VA.
2002: ISIDORE* - 125mph C3 - Hit Cuba as a C1, brushed the Yucatan as a C3, and drenched the US as a TS.
2001: IRIS* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Mexico as a C4.
2000: ISAAC - 140mph C4 - Fish storm.
132 hours
132
I can just see Isaac being bad for my place, it seems like it would be a Delmarva Peninsula landfall..
This is just great since I am going to OC starting sunday and all next week.
Quoting wxmod:
Anemic ice cap

Not so much a cap anymore as a small patch of thin fabric...
1101. GetReal
Amazing that GFS still has Helene hanging out in the W GOM for so long. Again evidence of a lack of a trough to eventually turn Isaac north.
GFS sends 94L, by then Isaac* (my bad on the misspelling) into the islands. As noted, convective feedback appears to be a non issue this run however I'd like to see more consistency with this possible track.
138 hours, very far south.
Quoting Thing342:
Past few "I" storms:

2011: IRENE* - 120mph C3 - Caused several billion dollars of damage along the east coast.
2010: IGOR* - 160mph C5 - Worst storm in Newfoundland history.
2009: IDA - 105mph C2 - Remnants became a destructive nor'easter.
2008: IKE* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Galveston.
2007: INGRID - 45mph TS - Fish storm torn apart by shear.
2006: ISAAC - 85mph C1 - Brushed Newfoundland.
2005: IRENE - 105mph C2 - Fish storm.
2004: IVAN* - 165mph C5 - Hit Florida as a C3.
2003: ISABEL* - 165mph C5 - Caused huge damage in VA.
2002: ISIDORE* - 125mph C3 - Hit Cuba as a C1, brushed the Yucatan as a C3, and drenched the US as a TS.
2001: IRIS* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Mexico as a C4.
2000: ISAAC - 140mph C4 - Fish storm.

Igor wasn't a Category 5... Just saying...
We have a new TS 138HR
Quoting GetReal:



If that Bermuda High remains in place it could very well become a Caribbean tracker towards the GOM.
now that would be horrible because the conditions are right and MJO would bulk this thing up big time
Strong ridge in this run with another system developing behind 94L

94L looks te be a Caribbean Cruiser on this run.
144 hours
1110. ncstorm
132 hours..
989NOW wow what is it doing??? 144HR
Ouch.


85 knot winds on a global model for the islands.

into the carribean? HOLY #@@##$#$ WOW. that changes everything. fish storm huh? oh my goodness
1114. GetReal
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
We have a new TS 138HR


And a monster of a hurricane headed in the general direction of Jamaica and the Caymans. To say nothing about the Jet Fuel in the NW Carib.
1115. SLU
WOW! ... what a change of heart from the GFS!

Quoting GetReal:
Amazing that GFS still has Helene hanging out in the W GOM for so long. Again evidence of a lack of a trough to eventually turn Isaac north.


Yucatan/Belize/Honduras/Nicaragua track? Eventual GoM storm?

Greater Antilles track?

Northbound Bahamas track?

Bahama/Florida/GoM track?



Wonder which is it lol.

Wow!!! If that's right I could tons of rain from Helene! Barely moving!!!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Igor wasn't a Category 5... Just saying...

And Ivan was a Category 4 at landfall...
(Wasn't it?)
Dean part two?.I hopefully think not..
Quoting GetReal:
Amazing that GFS still has Helene hanging out in the W GOM for so long. Again evidence of a lack of a trough to eventually turn Isaac north.
could the steering currents have a hammering on helene? like debby maybe?
Quoting SLU:
WOW! ... what a change of heart from the GFS!


Not a pretty scenario...
Quoting ncstorm:
108 hours


If that really IS Helene still in the BoC 5 days out, I fear parts of Mexico are going to experience locally catastrophic/extreme flooding, as the storm would need to be parked in the same general area right on the coast for the entire time...


On the other hand, if Helene goes west, and that's just a "pop-up" it might be a better scenario for everybody, because the U.S. needs rain, any rain, but Mexico probably doesn't need a TS parked on the same spot for 5 days...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

And Ivan was a Category 4 at landfall...
(Wasn't it?)
You mean in the U.S?.If so no.He was a cat 3.
150HR going N soon maybe??
100 knots in the Caribbean with the "J" storm right behind it.

1126. GetReal
144 hours and Helene is STILL hanging off the Texas coast... Bad sign that there will be no trough to turn Isaac away from the Caribbean track.
inb4 the Hurricane Dean references.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
150 going N soon maybe??


Not loading for me, lol.
Dean/Ivan like track so far
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
100 knots in the Caribbean.




poor PR wish is all so a part of the USA
156 hours
If that pans out prepare to add Isaac to the hall of the infamous "I" storms...
984 wow
1134. wxmod
Record 2007 compared to this year ice

Quoting washingtonian115:
If that pans out prepare to add Isaac to the hall of the infamous "I" storms...


They're gonna run out of names soon enough if this continues.
Weakness is going to try and pull it out of the Caribbean at some point.

Oh boy..
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
150HR going N soon maybe??
i hope dats wrong because that HIGH seems to be taking a seat and not going anywhere fast
NOT good for the USA!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Weakness is going to try and pull it out of the Caribbean at some point.

Oh boy..
I don't put a lot of stock in this run with such a dramatic change of heart from the GFS. Though truth be told the models have been shifting all day and most agree trough action will be minimal - I want to see the GFS become consistent with this scenario before we jump to conclusions that there's going to be another Hurricane Dean in the Eastern Caribbean next week. Still showing a pronounced weakness, so I suspect it's going to run into the islands.
162 hours
Going N now not good
1142. SLU
BOY ... these "I" storms are no joke.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
984 wow


i wounder if it hit PR dead on has it heading N?
Too much red 'n purple on dis page...
1145. SLU
Quoting GetReal:


And a monster of a hurricane headed in the general direction of Jamaica and the Caymans. To say nothing about the Jet Fuel in the NW Carib.


Somewhere on vacation, wunderkidcayman is freaking out :)

It'll be interesting to see his reaction when he returns if the models continue trending south
Large hurricane just south of PR

1148. GetReal
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Weakness is going to try and pull it out of the Caribbean at some point.

Oh boy..


What weakness??? This run can't even get rid of Helene...
Quoting Felix2007:
162 hours
WOW that could be very bad! thats next friday. whats the Mbs on that?
168 hours, that's one big bad dog right there.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going N now not good


North as in 0 degrees or something like wnw or nw or something like that?
NOT good for FL
1153. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
inb4 the Hurricane Dean references.


Speaking of DEAN entering the Caribbean, this is exactly 5 years ago today ...

For those not noticing the GFS does have Helene making landfall in south tx after a brief landfall in mexico! Very Interesting!
WNW
Quoting RussianWinter:


North as in 0 degrees or something like wnw or nw or something like that?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Dean part two?.I hopefully think not..


I was just thinking that..

Oh my God...the ridge seems strong enough for a close call for a repeat, and even if the Ridge breaks down, Cuba will probably take one on the chin instead.

If it's that strong passing the Lesser Antilles, it could intensify quite a lot before it hits the larger land masses...

Yeah, Felix and Dean would be good analogs IF THAT VERIFIES...
Quoting Felix2007:
168 hours, that's one big bad dog right there.
is that 962mbs?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I don't put a lot of stock in this run with such a dramatic change of heart from the GFS. Though truth be told the models have been shifting all day and most agree trough action will be minimal - I want to see the GFS become consistent with this scenario before we jump to conclusions that there's going to be another Hurricane Dean in the Caribbean next week.


YES. BUT ECMWF CHANGE TO SOUTH ALSO, I DON'T KNOW WHAT HAPPENS I STILL THINKING THIS IS ONE OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS OF GFS!!!!!!
Going WNW 174HR
1160. ncstorm
for those who are sight challenged
The image cannot be displayed because it contains errors?
Quoting wxchaser97:
Now, not to sound mean and no offense, if most people keep spelling Isaac wrong( its Isaac not Issac). You're gonna have a bad time, I'm too lazy and in a hurry to make the meme.
Too many pple listen to Cuban music... Issac Delgado...


Quoting popartpete:
I have a great deal of confidence in the NHC since Rick Knabb is the Director. I actually met him once. I think he's an excellent, but a conservative forecaster. I believe this is why we see the NHC taking their time with colored circles and naming systems in the Atlantic this year.
Doesn't seem to be making much difference with the numbers...

Moving in on PR

Quoting RTSplayer:


I was just thinking that..

Oh my God...the ridge seems strong enough for a close call for a repeat, and even if the Ridge breaks down, Cuba will probably take one on the chin instead.

If it's that strong passing the Lesser Antilles, it could intensify quite a lot before it hits the larger land masses...

Yeah, Felix and Dean would be good analogs IF THAT VERIFIES...
The models are going to shift back and forth..but they have been shifting further south each run..
Quoting bigwes6844:
WOW that could be very bad! thats next friday. whats the Mbs on that?


7 days? Isn't that a bit fast for formation?

I'm betting against the 18z.
1166. ncstorm
177 hours..NW
180h
If future Isaac heads into the islands check out the water temps. Nice and hot!
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models are going to shift back and forth..but they have been shifting further south each run..


Major storm hitting south America?
1170. Grothar
There has been a shift in some models further west on 94L. However, interesting to note that the CMC is the only outlier model on these runs. Intensity thinking has not changed much.



1171. ncstorm
Need an actual storm, then we're talking track.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I don't put a lot of stock in this run with such a dramatic change of heart from the GFS. Though truth be told the models have been shifting all day and most agree trough action will be minimal - I want to see the GFS become consistent with this scenario before we jump to conclusions that there's going to be another Hurricane Dean in the Eastern Caribbean next week. Still showing a pronounced weakness, so I suspect it's going to run into the islands.


I'm skeptical of it too at the moment, however it should be noted that the Euro was calling for a westward hook NORTH of the Antilles during each of the past 2 or 3 runs.

It may be wrong, or it may be that, for whatever reason, the GFS was missing something previously.

I'd like to see another run or two before drawing any conclusions, and fortunately for us the GFS refreshes twice as often and gets published much faster than the Euro...

Either way, it looks like the storm makes borderline Category 3/4 strength...
Quoting RussianWinter:


Major storm hitting south America?
Lol.No.They've shifted from it recurving out to sea to a storm in the caribbean.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Igor wasn't a Category 5... Just saying...

And Ike wasn't a Cat 4.
1177. ncstorm
I have been showing the ensemble runs for days now showing the trend the models were making in putting this more west and a later recurve..
1178. Gearsts
Quoting Grothar:
There has been a shift in some models further west on 94L. However, interesting to note that the CMC is the only outlier model on these runs. Intensity thinking has not changed much.



CMC thinks than it will turn cat 5 in 24 hours?
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Wow!!! If that's right I could tons of rain from Helene! Barely moving!!!

This scenario is too good to be true... athough I did call it a few blogs back, I didn't believe we could have that kind of luck then, either...
(click to enlarge)



1181. ncstorm
hold your breath..186 hours

Quoting WxGeekVA:
time for woody and buzz to say something about the storms everywhere.lol
1183. Gearsts
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol.No.They've shifted from it recurving out to sea to a storm in the caribbean.


Damn, here I was thinking this will be something like Igor or something, not that bad. In that case, this thing needs to be sheared off and dried while there is still time.
Quoting RTSplayer:


I'm skeptical of it too at the moment, however it should be noted that the Euro was calling for a westward hook NORTH of the Antilles during each of the past 2 or 3 runs.

It may be wrong, or it may be that, for whatever reason, the GFS was missing something previously.

I'd like to see another run or two before drawing any conclusions, and fortunately for us the GFS refreshes twice as often and gets published much faster than the Euro...


I will note though that the last run of the GFS had a random tropical disturbance develop to the NE of it and cause it to turn right into the weakness, something no other models had, which was convective feedback issues. This on the other hand seems to have less of that issue, and all of the computer models from what I can see have shifted south with this system in the last 24 hours. They will shift again. Personally, I'm leaning on this moving north of the islands. After that, no idea.
Quoting ncstorm:
hold your breath..186 hours




dont hold it for too long or you turn blue
Heading north

Quoting LoneStarWeather:

And Ike wasn't a Cat 4.


Ike was a cat 4 when it hit Cuba.


Officially, Ike was a cat 2 when it hit Texas, but Geraldo's team recorded sustained winds in the category 3 range, at 120mph, and gusts in the category 4 range.
USA next! not good
Quoting ncstorm:
I have been showing the ensemble runs for days now showing the trend the models were making in putting this more west and a later recurve..


Sounds very similar to Earl. That was while I still lived in Wilmington and it was a close call watching the models shift further and further west each run.... barely escaped disaster. For some reason I don't think there will be an escape route for (future) Isaac to follow, he seems likely bound for land one way or another, unfortunately :(
1191. SLU
"C" and "I" storms are tied for the most retirees, 9 each.

Alphabetical List of Retired Atlantic Names
Agnes 1972
Alicia 1983
Allen 1980
Allison 2001
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
Audrey 1957
Betsy 1965
Beulah 1967
Bob 1991
Camille 1969
Carla 1961
Carmen 1974
Carol 1954
Celia 1970
Cesar 1996
Charley 2004
Cleo 1964
Connie 1955
David 1979
Dean 2007
Dennis 2005
Diana 1990
Diane 1955
Donna 1960
Dora 1964
Edna 1968
Elena 1985
Eloise 1975
Fabian 2003
Felix 2007
Fifi 1974
Flora 1963
Floyd 1999
Fran 1996
Frances 2004
Frederic 1979
Georges 1998
Gilbert 1988
Gloria 1985
Gustav 2008
Hattie 1961
Hazel 1954
Hilda 1964
Hortense 1996
Hugo 1989
Igor 2010
Ike 2008
Inez 1966
Ione 1955
Irene 2011
Iris 2001
Isabel 2003
Isidore 2002
Ivan 2004

Janet 1955
Jeanne 2004
Joan 1988
Juan 2003
Katrina 2005
Keith 2000
Klaus 1990
Lenny 1999
Lili 2002
Luis 1995
Marilyn 1995
Michelle 2001
Mitch 1998
Noel 2007
Opal 1995
Paloma 2008
Rita 2005
Roxanne 1995
Stan 2005
Tomas 2010
Wilma 2005
1192. Grothar
In the later runs, most are still calling for a more WNW movement, which would indicate either a stronger storm, or the weakness in the ridge which should be there next week.

204
1194. ncstorm
PR..oh man

216
Hits Haiti
Quoting ncstorm:
hold your breath..186 hours

HMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!RIGHT IN MY COUNTRY
Quoting BahaHurican:
On a related topic, how many of our 8 NSs have made landfall [or are projected to make landfall] somewhere in the basin???


Since nobody answered...

Alberto - Brushed SE US coast [FL, GA, SC]
Beryl - Hit FL, GA
Chris - No landfall
Debbie - Hit FL
Ernesto - Hit Mexico 2x
Florence - No landfall
Gordon - Threatening Azores
Helene - Threatening Mexico [and possibly US]

So 63% to 75% of our named storms so far fall into this category.

Certainly not a quiet year so far... except perhaps in terms of ACE... anybody have a statistic showing average ace for the 1st 8 storms of a season?
Quoting RussianWinter:


Damn, here I was thinking this will be something like Igor or something, not that bad. In that case, this thing needs to be sheared off and dried while there is still time.
I know :(.I wanted this one to be like the Isaac in 2000.
Bahamas
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

And Ike wasn't a Cat 4.


Ike wasn't a Category 4 at landfall, but it was a Category 4 both at peak intensity.
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

And Ike wasn't a Cat 4.

Yes it was...in the Atlantic though
240h
Uh oh!
Quoting BahaHurican:

Since nobody answered...

Alberto - Brushed SE US coast [FL, GA, SC]
Beryl - Hit FL, GA
Chris - No landfall
Debbie - Hit FL
Ernesto - Hit Mexico 2x
Florence - No landfall
Gordon - Threatening Azores
Helene - Threatening Mexico [and possibly US]

So 63% to 75% of our named storms so far fall into this category.

Certainly not a quiet year so far... except perhaps in terms of ACE... anybody have a statistic showing average ace for the 1st 8 storms of a season?

Higher than it was this time for 2011. ACE is at 18.4.
hid the mode runs dont went JFV see them
1207. ncstorm
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Sounds very similar to Earl. That was while I still lived in Wilmington and it was a close call watching the models shift further and further west each run.... barely escaped disaster. For some reason I don't think there will be an escape route for (future) Isaac to follow, he seems likely bound for land one way or another, unfortunately :(


the thing with earl though is that most models were showing the recurve even while Earl kept going NW..the NHC discussions are a little comical with them kept using the verbage, "should turn"
Quoting Thing342:
Past few "I" storms:

2011: IRENE* - 120mph C3 - Caused several billion dollars of damage along the east coast.
2010: IGOR* - 160mph C5 - Worst storm in Newfoundland history.
2009: IDA - 105mph C2 - Remnants became a destructive nor'easter.
2008: IKE* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Galveston.
2007: INGRID - 45mph TS - Fish storm torn apart by shear.
2006: ISAAC - 85mph C1 - Brushed Newfoundland.
2005: IRENE - 105mph C2 - Fish storm.
2004: IVAN* - 165mph C5 - Hit Florida as a C3.
2003: ISABEL* - 165mph C5 - Caused huge damage in VA.
2002: ISIDORE* - 125mph C3 - Hit Cuba as a C1, brushed the Yucatan as a C3, and drenched the US as a TS.
2001: IRIS* - 145mph C4 - Slammed into Mexico as a C4.
2000: ISAAC - 140mph C4 - Fish storm.


2008: IKE as a Cat 4 had winds of 135mph near the Turk/Caicos and Cuba ... at it's Galveston TX landfall, it was a Cat 2 (not a Major Cat 4).

2005 Wilma was the last Major to US landfall.
Just a semantics point, Ike was still wicked bad & heart-breaking everwhere it passed.

RTSplayer, you beat me to it. LOL :o)
Looking ugly for the East Coast
1210. ncstorm
Looks like a recurve just east of the CONUS.
264
979 mb!!
1214. Gearsts
Quoting ncstorm:
hold your breath..186 hours

hitting PR?
any long tracking storm is gonna blow up fast with these waters!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
264


IRENE PART 2!?!?!?!?!
NY 975MB
975!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a recurve just east of the CONUS.


Close shave, really bad news for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic if it where to verify.

Don't put much faith in it though personally IMO.
300h
Watch out NC.
Quoting Felix2007:
975!!



i think NC could get hit
1223. ncstorm
Hey GFS, really appreciate the offer. But I'll pass thanks.
NOT GOOD
Quoting ncstorm:


the thing with earl though is that most models were showing the recurve even while Earl kept going NW..the NHC discussions are a little comical with them kept using the verbage, "should turn"


IIRC, Earl easily made it close enough to be seen on local radar. Despite the NHC confidence that it definitely would make the turn, it was not easy to believe when a major hurricane was so close AND looked to be heading directly for our area! Living in Raleigh I (thankfully) don't think I'll have to deal with anything like that again... WAY too close for comfort.

WOW 971!!!!!!!!
Quoting Felix2007:
300h


This might get bad for the Delmarva Peninsula
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
WOW 971!!!!!!!!



poor new york
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
New England is done
WOW!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hey GFS, really appreciate the offer. But I'll pass thanks.
Me to...All though we do need the rain..
What the?
1237. ncstorm
Joe Bastardi is going to love this run..
1238. Levi32
18z GFS makes much more sense with 94L's long-term track, more in line with my thoughts from earlier. Still a long time to work on this one.
Impossible.
lol
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi is going to love this run..
Yall, calm down.

The models are certainly terrible beyond 7 days on forecasting track, and they even suck within 5 days on intensity.

Needs to be strong enough to classify so they can get a better center fix on it before everyone goes nuts worrying about some northern turn a week from now.

Besides all that, whatever happens in the BoC over the next 5 days is going to screw up the steering anyway...
I'd like to see a defined LLC develop before making decisions, but the more westerly track does make sense.

I don't see this getting plucked out of the CATL and moving NNW like the 12z showed.
Since a run like this is playing out right now let me say..If a bad storm came up the east coast like Irene did no one in De NJ or NY would evacuate at all..They blew up Irene so much and had everyone in south jersey leave(i stayed was in "eye") and nothing happened around here worse then that derencho that happened about 2 months back..so it would end up really bad if a big storm came rolling threw the NE or MidAtlantic
Explanation for the changed track from a meteorologist:

"Looks like the mid-Atlantic ridge at 18Z was analyzed quite a bit stronger than progged by the 12Z GFS. I'm guessing some satellite radiances were assimilated with warmer mi-level temps than forecasted."

Quoting RTSplayer:
Yall, calm down.

The models are certainly terrible beyond 7 days on forecasting track, and they even suck within 5 days on intensity.

Needs to be strong enough to classify so they can get a better center fix on it before everyone goes nuts worrying about some northern turn a week from now.

Besides all that, whatever happens in the BoC over the next 5 days is going to screw up the steering anyway...

Agree! You guys need to calm down...we got Helene first!!
GFS 18Z: Very bad news for the Islands and the East coast while gulf coast residents' hurricane kits are collecting dust
NEW BLOG EVRYBODY!!!
does anyone have the latest atcf coordinates for Invest 94L?
1250. emcf30
Quoting Tazmanian:
hid the mode runs dont went JFV see them


LMAO
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I'd like to see a defined LLC develop before making decisions, but the more westerly track does make sense.

I don't see this getting plucked out of the CATL and moving NNW like the 12z showed.


It's what I've been saying all along. The pattern favors a more westward solution, maybe not a landfall, but not a recurve east of Bermuda. The ridge builds more after Gordon passes to the north, and steers 94L more to the west. The EURO probably has the right idea.
Quoting Felix2007:
300h


Earl part 2?
So I come back to find the gfs run of doom/very close to doom running, great.
Are the models trending more westward since this was posted?...

NEW BLOG EVERYBODY thats still on this one
1256. flwxboy
Where did everyone go, or is this my computer not updating?
Quoting wxchaser97:
Where did everyone go, or is this my computer not updating?
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!
Hmmm... getting some thunderboomers here... hope we don't loose power... too hot.

Freaking serious....


While waiting for the newest ATCF, a very late mapping derived from
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormHelene for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure increased from 1005millibars to 1006millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 35knots(40mph)65km/h
Vector changed 334.8*NNWest@5.1mph(8.2km/h) to 339.4*NNWest@6.1mph(9.9km/h)
CVM-CiudadVictoria
TAM-Tampico :: MMNU-Nautla :: VER-Veracruz :: VER-Ciudad del Carmen :: CPE-Campeche

The westernmost dot on the kinked line is exTD.7's became a TropicalDepression again
The next dot NNWest of that dot is where TD.7 became TropicalStormHelene
The southernmost dot on the longest straight line is TS.Helene's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection thru exTD.7's 2 most recent positions to the coastline
17August6pmGMT: exTD.7 had been headed toward passage over LaPesca (right,CVMdumbbell)
18August12amGMT: exTD.7 was heading toward passage over El Porvenir,Tamaulipas in 1day15hours from now (when this mapping was posted)

Copy&paste cvm-23.9n97.75w, tam, mmnu, ver, cme, cpe, pcm, 19.2n90.7w- 19.3n92.6w- 19.3n94.2w- 19.7n95.2w- 19.9n95.7w, 19.9n95.7w-20.3n95.9w, 20.3n95.9w-20.8n96.1w, 20.3n95.9w-24.575n97.661w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
While waiting for a late ATCF, a very very late mapping derived from
(NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormGordon for 18August12amGMT
MinimumPressure decreased from 993millibars to 990millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 92.9*East@19.1mph(30.7km/h) to 93.1*East@18.2mph(29.2km/h)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The westernmost dot marks Gordon's position at the start of its 2nd day as a TropicalStorm
The westernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Gordon's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
17August12amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 24.4miles(39.2kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,top)
17August6amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 95.4miles(154kilometres)South of SantaMaria (nearSMAdumbbell,bottom)
17August12pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 452miles(727kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (unconnected unlabeled dot)
17August6pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 365miles(587kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria (bottom blob hanging beneath the straightline projection)
18August12amGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage 348miles(559kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria in ~1day22hours from now (when this was posted)

Copy&paste cvu, sma, 36.575n25.029w-35.548n25.144w, pxo, fnc, 30.71n27.5w, 31.806n26.621w, spc, vde, 34.3n51.1w-34.6n49.1w, 34.6n49.1w-34.4n47.0w, 34.4n47.0w-34.3n45.0w, 34.3n45.0w-34.2n43.1w, 34.3n45.0w-32.03n26.46w, 36.928n25.017w-32.03n26.46w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison