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Ex-Hurricane Oho Going Where Few Hurricanes Have Gone Before: Alaska

By: Jeff Masters 3:45 PM GMT on October 08, 2015

Alaska and British Columbia are on alert to receive a very unusual dose of tropical weather: the remains of Hurricane Oho, which are on track to hurtle into the Alaska Panhandle on Friday evening. Oho completed the transition from a hurricane to an extratropical storm with 70 mph winds on Thursday morning, and after short period of weakening, is expected to interact with a powerful jet stream over the Gulf of Alaska and intensify on Friday afternoon off the coast of Alaska into a powerful 960 mb low pressure system with near-hurricane-force winds and heavy rain. A High Wind Warning is up for Sitka, Alaska for sustained winds of 40 to 55 mph with gusts of 65 to 75 mph on Friday. Sustained winds of 70 mph--just below hurricane-force--accompanied by 26-foot seas are expected over the offshore waters of the Alaska Panhandle from Cape Decision to Clarence Strait. The Juneau, Alaska NWS discussion from Thursday morning noted that 2 - 4" of rain is expected on Friday from the unusual storm, and "the dry week we just had has allowed rivers to fall...but risk of mudslides cannot be ruled out due to the extreme/unusual nature of this system."


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Oho as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Wednesday, October 7, 2015. At the time, Oho was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Hurricane Oho goes where few hurricanes have gone before
This is the second year in a row for the extratropical remains of a Central Pacific hurricane to affect the northwestern coast of North America. As I blogged about last year, Hurricane Ana, which took an extended tour of the Hawaiian Islands, then turned northeast and maintained hurricane strength to a latitude of 36.3°N--approximately the latitude of Monterey, California--transitioned to a powerful extratropical storm that brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia on October 28, 2014. Only one other time since 1949 have the remains of a Central Pacific hurricane directly impacted the northwest coast of North American--when the extratropical remains of an unnamed 1975 storm that maintained hurricane strength remarkably far north, to 46.8°N (the latitude of the Oregon/Washington border), hit the region.

What's going on? Well, record-warm sea surface temperatures near the Hawaiian Islands the past two years have helped fuel highly unusual tropical cyclone activity in the waters surrounding the islands. The warmest water temperatures surrounding Hawaii are usually just below the threshold where a tropical cyclone can form and maintain itself, 26°C (79°F.) Water temperatures in these waters have been 27 - 28°C in much of the summer of 2014 and 2015, and that extra bump in temperature has pushed the Central Pacific past a threshold which allows more tropical storms and hurricane to form. (Note: it is more complicated that just a simple temperature influence, since low wind shear is also needed to increase tropical cyclone activity; however, the increased ocean temperatures have helped create a feedback in which wind shear has been lower over the Central Pacific in 2015.) In 2014, a record three hurricanes--Iselle, Julio, and Ana--came within 300 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, and two of these storms--Julio and Ana--tracked far to the north of the islands, where very few tropical cyclones have ever been observed. In September 2015, Hurricane Ignacio joined the club, penetrating to 32.4°N latitude as a hurricane, and 34.8°N as a tropical storm. Hurricane Oho maintained Category 2 strength on Thursday over a region of ocean well to the northeast of Hawaii where no hurricane that strong had ever been observed (Figure 2.) Since 1949, just ten Central Pacific tropical cyclones have pushed north of 34°N, and four of those storms occurred in 2014 and 2015--and latest model runs point to the possibility of a fifth storm joining the club, tropical disturbance Invest 95E, which is organizing in the waters to the east of Hawaii today.


Figure 2. Tracks of the ten Central Pacific tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes since 1949 to make it far to the north of the Hawaiian Islands (at least 34°N latitude.) An unusual number of these storms have occurred in the past two years--four out of the ten storms. Another one--currently dubbed Invest 95E--could join the club next week. Image credit: NOAA.

Next member of the Far-North-of-Hawaii Club: Eastern Pacific disturbance 95E?
The far-north of Hawaii hurricane club may get a new member next week: an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific located about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula (Invest 95E) that has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Satellite loops show 95E has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorms, and is slowly growing more organized. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system, and in their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 70%, respectively. Models show 95E taking a west to west-northwest track over the next week, then turning northwards and missing Hawaii by at least 500 miles late next week.

Climate change may increase the number of Hawaiian hurricanes
The amazingly active Hawaiian hurricane seasons of 2014 and 2015 could well be a harbinger of the future, as I discussed in a 2014 blog post, Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes. A 2013 modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii", found that global warming is expected to increase the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes in Hawaii. Lead author Hiroyuki Murakami, from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, commented in a press release accompanying the paper: "Historically, only every four years on average did a tropical cyclone come near Hawaii. Our projections for the end of this century show a two-to-three-fold increase for this region."

Joaquin dies
Hurricane Joaquin is no more. The storm has become an extratropical storm over the cold waters of the north central Atlantic, ending its ten-day rampage. At its peak at 00 UTC October 2, Joaquin stood just below Category 5 status, with 155 mph winds and a central pressure of 931 mb. By the time Joaquin's remnant reaches Portugal on Saturday, the ex-hurricane should have top winds of about 35 mph.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

this stretched out tropical wave (leftover 91) might split the north following the gulf stream into the natlantic and the southern side into the carib.
Thanks, doc. Very interesting and unusual: Aloha in Alaska.
Thanks Doc.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters.....

Wondered why it was overcast here and in Northern Calif too. A quick look at the Satellite revealed this.
Seems Oho has come to visit(from 1500 miles away).
Total ACE of Joaquin? Anybody know?
Quoting 303. CaribBoy:

RAIN!!!!








Awesome!
Quoting 9. LongIslandBeaches:

Total ACE of Joaquin? Anybody know?
Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2015

Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
ANA May 08, 2015 50 2.28
BILL June 16, 2015 50 1.0275
CLAUDETTE July 13, 2015 45 1.13
DANNY August 18, 2015 100 9.1975
ERIKA August 25, 2015 45 2.9425
FRED August 30, 2015 75 5.65
GRACE September 05, 2015 45 1.7375
HENRI September 10, 2015 35 0.8575
NINE September 10, 2015 0 0
IDA September 19, 2015 45 3.385
JOAQUIN-- September 29, 2015 135 28.3475

Levi goes to Florida to study weather. Where hurricanes happen.
Silly hurricane heads to Alaska.
Dang it!
JQ ACE-26 or 28
Half of total year ACE
Quoting 11. hydrus:

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2015

Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
ANA May 08, 2015 50 2.28
BILL June 16, 2015 50 1.0275
CLAUDETTE July 13, 2015 45 1.13
DANNY August 18, 2015 100 9.1975
ERIKA August 25, 2015 45 2.9425
FRED August 30, 2015 75 5.65
GRACE September 05, 2015 45 1.7375
HENRI September 10, 2015 35 0.8575
NINE September 10, 2015 0 0
IDA September 19, 2015 45 3.385
JOAQUIN-- September 29, 2015 135 28.3475


Even with the higher number of storms than what most forecasts predicted, the fact Joaquin by itself has a higher ACE score than the rest of the season combined is a good indicator of the real season.
Great update Dr.Masters, but I would love to get some insight regarding an unnamed, unclassified storm from the 2006 season, this one; 2006 North Central Pacific storm

Everything I have found on it seems to suggest that is was marginally tropical, or subtropical at the least, yet it never got recorded. Its remants ended up effecting British Columbia. I find it to be a fascinating storm but dislike that it isn't considered the tropical system that it should be.
Quoting 10. 69Viking:



Awesome!
I'm going to start sounding like the Boy soon. :-) Sunny and warm, with a temperature of 83 and humidity of 44%. My next chance of rain is Halloween. OK, that might be a slight exaggeration, but probably not until Monday, and even that chance looks pretty slim. A tropical storm in the Gulf that doesn't get out of hand is what I really need since I'm now almost nine inches in the red.
Quoting 14. sar2401:

Even with the higher number of storms than what most forecasts predicted, the fact Joaquin by itself has a higher ACE score than the rest of the season combined is a good indicator of the real season.


Remove Joaquin and the season hasn't been too overwhelming. But on average, this season has already exceeded a lot of predictions.
I went with 12 or 13 named storms, so I think I'm going to be pretty close this season.
Thanks dok!

Alaska, the final frontier. These are the voyages of Hurricane Oho, it's continuing mission to seek out strange new storms, to terrorize old civilizations, To boldly go where few storms have gone before!
CaribBoy gets rain, Chicago Cubs advance to playoffs........ What's next? Hell dips below 32°F ?????
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:



Remove Joaquin and the season hasn't been too overwhelming. But on average, this season has already exceeded a lot of predictions.
I went with 12 or 13 named storms, but I think I'm going to be pretty close this season.


My prediction was 9-2-1. Seems like none of that is true.
Quoting 19. capeflorida:

CaribBoy gets rain, Chicago Cubs advance to playoffs........ What's next? Hell dips below 32°F ?????


and we've had about 6-7 sunny days in a row down here.
Hurricane Joaquin coming to Portugal and Hurricane Oho going to Alaska!
Could this be a new norm or just another anomaly, or a double anomaly in this case.

Nothing but surprises on here recently. Thank you for the information.

Warm and sunny here today in Spain, a few days ago the Canary Islands had their warmest October day ever on records of nearly 38/C, around the 100/F mark.
Question:Where can I find phase diagrams for lows? Like cold-core low,warm-core low etc.
Quoting 23. PolishHurrMaster:

Question:Where can I find phase diagrams for lows? Like cold-core low,warm-core low etc.

Here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Quoting 16. sar2401:

I'm going to start sounding like the Boy soon. :-) Sunny and warm, with a temperature of 83 and humidity of 44%. My next chance of rain is Halloween. OK, that might be a slight exaggeration, but probably not until Monday, and even that chance looks pretty slim. A tropical storm in the Gulf that doesn't get out of hand is what I really need since I'm now almost nine inches in the red.


Yeah this season had been strange. When we do get rain it's a good amount but then we go 3-4 weeks with nothing and sunny dry weather. Would be nice if that ULL out West would move East and tap into some of that Gulf moisture ahead of it and throw it up our way.
Quoting 11. hydrus:

Atlantic Tropical Cyclones of 2015

Tropical Cyclone Name Start Date Max Wind Speed (kt) ACE (104 kt2)
ANA May 08, 2015 50 2.28
BILL June 16, 2015 50 1.0275
CLAUDETTE July 13, 2015 45 1.13
DANNY August 18, 2015 100 9.1975
ERIKA August 25, 2015 45 2.9425
FRED August 30, 2015 75 5.65
GRACE September 05, 2015 45 1.7375
HENRI September 10, 2015 35 0.8575
NINE September 10, 2015 0 0
IDA September 19, 2015 45 3.385
JOAQUIN-- September 29, 2015 135 28.3475




Thanks, hydrus.

10 seconds of perusing brought me here. I should look before I speak. ;)
Quoting 25. 69Viking:



Yeah this season had been strange. When we do get rain it's a good amount but then we go 3-4 weeks with nothing and sunny dry weather. Would be nice if that ULL out West would move East and tap into some of that Gulf moisture ahead of it and throw it up our way.


I'm guessing folks in Mobile and Pensacola, who got flooded from the last ULL in the western Gulf, would say that's a little too close for comfort :)
Quoting 17. Sfloridacat5:



Remove Joaquin and the season hasn't been too overwhelming. But on average, this season has already exceeded a lot of predictions.
I went with 12 or 13 named storms, so I think I'm going to be pretty close this season.


Quoting 23. PolishHurrMaster:

Question:Where can I find phase diagrams for lows? Like cold-core low,warm-core low etc.


Here's also some information from the Wunderground page on Subtropical Storms
(Tropical, subtropical, extra-tropical)

Link
Quoting 22. PlazaRed:

Hurricane Joaquin coming to Portugal and Hurricane Oho going to Alaska!
Could this be a new norm or just another anomaly, or a double anomaly in this case.

Nothing but surprises on here recently. Thank you for the information.

Warm and sunny here today in Spain, a few days ago the Canary Islands had their warmest October day ever on records of nearly 38/C, around the 100/F mark.


Where in Spain you from? My wife is from Madrid, loved the dry weather in Spain!
Quoting 28. ChillinInTheKeys:



Something tells me #63. Tyler Stanfield's prediction of 87 storms isn't going to come to fruition.
Quoting 28. ChillinInTheKeys:






Thanks
I went with 12/5/2
Quoting 10. 69Viking, CaribBoy:



Awesome!

We in Centex went 4 years with no rain until this May! Congratulations! I know how devastating the feeling of endless drought is, of watching your ecosystems die before your eyes. Could you guys chip in for a DESAL so at least you could make your own rain? We plunged immediately back into 100% drought the minute the last raindrop fell four months ago, ecosystems collapsed already again. The official line is that the El Nino is so strong it can't deliver the way above-average rain we've been eagerly anticipating.
Thank You for that very informative entry. Interesting to note that some West Pac typhoons re-curve to the poles in the North Pacific latitudes and can cause "ripples" in the Polar Jet that can affect weather across Canada and the US (during the Winter with late season Typhoons) as we saw last US Winter. Not sure that we have observed this phenomenon yet with these "Hawaii" re-curves yet but correct me if I am wrong; seems to me that they are located in lower latitudes in the NW and that they might not affect the Polar Jet as much (as opposed to the Jet over the NW Conus affecting the storm by weakening it or ripping it into remnants on the way in).


Quoting 31. LongIslandBeaches:



Something tells me #63. Tyler Stanfield's prediction of 87 storms isn't going to come to fruition.


That would be some season.
Quoting 24. barbamz:


Here:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/


Thanks
Quoting 16. sar2401:

I'm going to start sounding like the Boy soon. :-) Sunny and warm, with a temperature of 83 and humidity of 44%. My next chance of rain is Halloween. OK, that might be a slight exaggeration, but probably not until Monday, and even that chance looks pretty slim. A tropical storm in the Gulf that doesn't get out of hand is what I really need since I'm now almost nine inches in the red.


sar, I may be confusing you with someone else but I thought you reported a few weeks back you had between 50-55" YTD. According to the US Climate Data, Eufaula's annual average is 50.2".

I've been somewhat in between rainfall wise on my little parcel of property. Higher than a few areas. Lower than a few areas. Sitting at 47" for the year.
Quoting 37. StAugustineFL:



sar, I may be confusing you with someone else but I thought you reported a few weeks back you had between 50-55" YTD. According to the US Climate Data, Eufaula's annual average is 50.2".

I've been somewhat in between rainfall wise on my little parcel of property. Higher than a few areas. Lower than a few areas. Sitting at 47" for the year.
No, that's me. I'm still about normal for the year, but that number is deceiving. About 65% of that fell in the spring. Since summer began, we've been way behind normal, and I'm about nine inches behind since May. Rainfall from many months ago is long gone in term of soil moisture, so we need some current rain to get up back to normal soil moisture. I've gotten no rain for October, and 2.11" in September.
2015 The year the climate strikes back.
Gearsts:
10.4.2
Actual numbers:
10.3.2


The current development of storms over northwestern Africa (Morocco, Algeria) looks much more impressive than the front of Ex-Joaquin approaching Portugal.

From today's forecast from Estofex:

... thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the day across the Atlas mountains, spreading across northern Morocco and Algeria.
With north-easterly to easterly surface winds and increasing southerly flow aloft, strong vertical wind shear will evolve, exceeding 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Therefore, supercells can be expected, capable of producing large or very large hail. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are not ruled out. Especially across the mountain ranges, flooding is possible due to excessive rain. Overall threat is quite robust, and a level 2 is issued. Later in the period, storms may affect portions of the Mediterranean and Tunisia. Large hail is expected to be the main threat.
WSI's Atmospheric ENSO Index is expected to reach record levels of over 4.5 sigma in a couple of weeks. This ongoing WWB means business.

As you can see below the sub surface is responding in a big way as a huge Oceanic Kelvin Wave is in progress as 7C anomalies quickly expand now.

Quoting 41. Gearsts:

Gearsts:
10.4.2
Actual numbers:
10.3.2

Joaquin ruined it for me, I have 9/3/1
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:



Thanks
I went with 12/5/2


I went 10 5 2 and so far I am right on the mark. We might end up with 11 named storms as it appears we might see something try to form next week in the Caribbean.

Outflow from what is left of T.S. Oho
On a sad note locally in Louisiana,Chef Paul Prudhomme who pioneered creole and cajun cuisine has passed at age 75 early this morning. Paul Prudhomme has died
Quoting 47. Patrap:

On a sad note locally in Louisiana,Chef Paul Prudhomme who pioneered creole and cajun cuisine has passed at age 75 early this morning.
Sad indeed..Chef was a genius...Love his spicy seafood dishes.
Quoting 39. sar2401:

No, that's me. I'm still about normal for the year, but that number is deceiving. About 65% of that fell in the spring. Since summer began, we've been way behind normal, and I'm about nine inches behind since May. Rainfall from many months ago is long gone in term of soil moisture, so we need some current rain to get up back to normal soil moisture. I've gotten no rain for October, and 2.11" in September.


That makes sense. Been dry here this month as well but have some chances the next few days.

Back to the salt mine I go. The bills aren't going to pay themselves.
Quoting 30. 69Viking:



Where in Spain you from? My wife is from Madrid, loved the dry weather in Spain!

I'm from Manchester England but I have lived here in Spain for 24 years.
I'm 60 miles south of Seville and about 80 miles north east of Gibraltar, 100 miles east of Granada and 100 miles west of Cadiz, near the Grazalema mountains, province of Cadiz. More or less.
There are a few of us, ( I do the writing,) who talk about the weather, (that's why its Plaza Red, or Square Network,) everybody else usually seems to be getting as we don't have much to write about other than sunshine and the odd cloud or 2, although it does rain quite heavily in the winter on very rare occasions.

Not much more to add about our zone but we do have other much more interesting weather places in Spain I occasionally write about or upload photos of.
Quoting 50. fmbill:

Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.


All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC.
Quoting 42. barbamz:



The current development of storms over northwestern Africa (Morocco, Algeria) looks much more impressive than the front of Ex-Joaquin approaching Portugal.

From today's forecast from Estofex:

... thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the day across the Atlas mountains, spreading across northern Morocco and Algeria.
With north-easterly to easterly surface winds and increasing southerly flow aloft, strong vertical wind shear will evolve, exceeding 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km. Therefore, supercells can be expected, capable of producing large or very large hail. Severe wind gusts and tornadoes are not ruled out. Especially across the mountain ranges, flooding is possible due to excessive rain. Overall threat is quite robust, and a level 2 is issued. Later in the period, storms may affect portions of the Mediterranean and Tunisia. Large hail is expected to be the main threat.



Tornadoes in North Africa, huh?

Not something you see everyday.
As it is an interesting scenery here a saved loop of Ex-Joaquin's European approach:


Source for updates.

Will be exciting to check where precisely the storm will make landfall. German ICON model - a model with its own head, lol - has the storm in the Bay of Biscay. GFS 12z initially tends a bit that way too. But ECMWF isn't wavering in sending the storm south along just the coast of Portugal.

Have to go. Nice evening, everybody!
A few isolated patches of ice starting to appear in the Arctic's water's, I'm wondering if the passage of Oho will have any marked effects on the Arctic for the time of year, although only temporary every detail goes to make the bigger picture of what's going on.

Quoting 47. Patrap:

On a sad note locally in Louisiana,Chef Paul Prudhomme who pioneered creole and cajun cuisine has passed at age 75 early this morning. Paul Prudhomme has died


Has Blackened Redfish "Magic" spice is the only thing I use (for the last 10 years) to season my fish when I grill, blacken, or bake my fillets..... May His Soul Rest in Peace for all the pleasure and culture that he preserved for so many in the world to enjoy.  
Quoting 28. ChillinInTheKeys:






Nice pic!

Still plenty of moisture out there.
Quoting 58. fmbill:

Still plenty of moisture out there.



I think we could see one more hurricane or a couple more TS this year.
SAL
Quoting 39. sar2401:

No, that's me. I'm still about normal for the year, but that number is deceiving. About 65% of that fell in the spring. Since summer began, we've been way behind normal, and I'm about nine inches behind since May. Rainfall from many months ago is long gone in term of soil moisture, so we need some current rain to get up back to normal soil moisture. I've gotten no rain for October, and 2.11" in September.


Yeah it's never good on the soil to have all the rain outside of the summer. Especially since you had so many hot days.
Quoting 59. FunnelVortex:



I think we could see one more hurricane or a couple more TS this year.


I agree. Where we would typically see systems spin up this time of year is exactly where the sheer is lowest, sea surface temps are high, and plenty of moisture.
Quoting 62. fmbill:



I agree. Where we would typically see systems spin up this time of year is exactly where the sheer is lowest, sea surface temps are high, and plenty of moisture.


The Carribean has low-moderate shear right now
Quoting 62. fmbill:



I agree. Where we would typically see systems spin up this time of year is exactly where the sheer is lowest, sea surface temps are high, and plenty of moisture.


I think the door will soon swing shut on the tropics.

Or maybe a-no, I won't say it.
Quoting 64. 62901IL:



I think the door will soon swing shut on the tropics.

Or maybe a-no, I won't say it.


The letter "K" mixed with the Gulf still make you nervous? LOL!
Quoting 65. Jedkins01:



Don't worry, they won't win the world series though, it's impossible.

And you may ask, by what evidence?

Easy, they're the Cubs.


As a longtime Pirates fan, I am well acquainted with the "...agony of defeat."
Quoting 66. fmbill:



The letter "K" mixed with the Gulf still make you nervous? LOL!


No, I was going to say-don't ban me for this-a CRASSUS ARMOURED ASSAULT TRANSPORT.
Quoting 66. fmbill:



The letter "K" mixed with the Gulf still make you nervous? LOL!


Not only a K storm. But a K storm named Kate... KATe!
The curse of the 5 continues.Even the strong el nino could not stop what ever bad Ju Ju this number carries when it comes to the Atantic.
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

The curse of the 5 continues.Even the strong el nino could not stop what ever bad Ju Ju this number carries when it comes to the Atantic.


What is the curse of the 5?
Quoting 52. fmbill:



All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0oC.


I have heard conflicting reports. I have heard 3.4 ssts anomalies still increasing right now and have heard they are less than august. Opinions ? thanks
Quoting 73. SlabTown:



I have heard conflicting reports. I have heard 3.4 ssts anomalies still increasing right now and have heard they are less than august. Opinions ? thanks

I was just quoting NOAA's report they released today. Either way, it still looks to be a tough winter for the southeast.
Quoting 72. 62901IL:



What is the curse of the 5?
It has a record of bad storms in the Atlantic
Quoting 8. tampabaymatt:


A little baby nor'easterling. Cute!
Quoting 73. SlabTown:



I have heard conflicting reports. I have heard 3.4 ssts anomalies still increasing right now and have heard they are less than august. Opinions ? thanks


They haven't moved much the last 3 weeks(slightly up this week), but with a new WWB underway, I definitely wouldn't bet that the anomalies have peaked.
Quoting 55. PlazaRed:

A few isolated patches of ice starting to appear in the Arctic's water's, I'm wondering if the passage of Oho will have any marked effects on the Arctic for the time of year, although only temporary every detail goes to make the bigger picture of what's going on.



The extra energy
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:


Thank You for that very informative entry. Interesting to note that some West Pac typhoons re-curve to the poles in the North Pacific latitudes and can cause "ripples" in the Polar Jet that can affect weather across Canada and the US (during the Winter with late season Typhoons) as we saw last US Winter. Not sure that we have observed this phenomenon yet with these "Hawaii" re-curves yet but correct me if I am wrong; seems to me that they are located in lower latitudes in the NW and that they might not affect the Polar Jet as much (as opposed to the Jet over the NW Conus affecting the storm by weakening it or ripping it into remnants on the way in).




Generally, the far north excursion of tropical air has a far southern counterflow from the north, which is kind of what happened behind Joaquin. And also in this instance. You can see a 200 mph jet and polar air streaming out over the relatively tepid waters of the Pacific. In Nino years past, mid Pacific dips to near Hawaiian latitudes help tap tropical moisture for California with additional moisture coming from the extensive areas of showers behind the fronts from all the instabiliy created by frigid air over tropical water.
Quoting 71. washingtonian115:

The curse of the 5 continues.Even the strong el nino could not stop what ever bad Ju Ju this number carries when it comes to the Atantic.


Wasn't Joaquin already that?
x
Quoting 80. aquak9:

RIP, my friend Rand.



what???????..........if you need to could you e-mail me please
Quoting 73. SlabTown:



I have heard conflicting reports. I have heard 3.4 ssts anomalies still increasing right now and have heard they are less than august. Opinions ? thanks
The average trend is up.
PT Oho now just about abeam the SF Bay Area far out to sea, speeding north northeast. Part of its outflow has amplified the downstream jet along the ridge edge, which curves clockwise with a strong southwestward push off the Mexican Pacific coast, which in turn is helping re-spin up the meandering ULL that went thru California a week ago, now forecast to retrograde back with showers possible from southern to central California in a few days.
Quoting 79. FunnelVortex:



Wasn't Joaquin already that?

Almost, but no cigar.
Quoting 82. guygee:


and this means what?
Quoting 81. ricderr:



what???????..........if you need to could you e-mail me please
I wumailed you.
Quoting 81. ricderr:




what???????..........if you need to could you e-mail me please



Did I miss something, ric...doggie?
Quoting 75. washingtonian115:

It has a record of bad storms in the Atlantic


Thanks.
Quoting 49. StAugustineFL:



That makes sense. Been dry here this month as well but have some chances the next few days.

Back to the salt mine I go. The bills aren't going to pay themselves.
Fortunately for you, the ocean gives you some hope. Not for me, or at least not without a TC of some sort. The continent is already pretty dry. I hope this El Nino really will bring the rainy winter I keep hearing about.
Good afternoon

It's 77, feeling like 77, with numerous thunderstorms and wonderful rain happening on the island today. Not a pleasant day for the cruise ship that is in port. You can see a rain band coming in now:

Link

and it's just hitting the view of the second cam.

Looking like we have a fair amount of rain coming in for the next 18 hours or so and there's no complaining on this end!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 86. sebastianflorida:

and this means what?
Some scattered thunderstorms, with about a 20% chance of gutter crushing rain. :-0 Other than what looks like a fairly innocuous surface trough over central FL, things are pretty quiet.
Quoting 91. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good afternoon

It's 77, feeling like 77, with numerous thunderstorms and wonderful rain happening on the island today. Not a pleasant day for the cruise ship that is in port. You can see a rain band coming in now:

Link

and it's just hitting the view of the second cam.

Looking like we have a fair amount of rain coming in for the next 18 hours or so and there's no complaining on this end!

Hope all is well with everybody!

Lindy
HI Lindy. Looks like it's really coming down on your webcams. The tourists are probably not happy, but just think about umbrella and cheap Chinese raincoat sales in town. Sunglasses shops will probably suffer a bit though. It's nice you're getting the cisterns filled up again. I sit on top of a huge aquifer here so it would take a long time before SE AL rain out of water. If I could convince the lawn to grow roots down into the aquifer, things would be great. :-)
Quoting 41. Gearsts:

Gearsts:
10.4.2
Actual numbers:
10.3.2
I went 9/4/2..still believe couple more will form
Quoting 93. sar2401:

HI Lindy. Looks like it's really coming down on your webcams. The tourists are probably not happy, but just think about umbrella and cheap Chinese raincoat sales in town. Sunglasses shops will probably suffer a bit though. It's nice you're getting the cisterns filled up again. I sit on top of a huge aquifer here so it would take a long time before SE AL rain out of water. If I could convince the lawn to grow roots down into the aquifer, things would be great. :-)


Well, I'm a little worried about my living room right now as I left the window open when I left this morning. Need to get this rain down and out of here by tomorrow morning. Have a long weekend camping trip happening! :-)
Before and After of the South Carolina Flood.
Quoting 61. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's never good on the soil to have all the rain outside of the summer. Especially since you had so many hot days.
I just had Excel figure it out for me. From February 1 to May 31, 68% of my rain occured on days that also had a daily total of 1.00" or more. In other words, a lot of the rain I did get came with downpours. I only had three days when the daily total was between a quarter and a half inch, and of those, only two days when the rain lasted longer than an hour. We haven't had those long, soaking rains in the spring, and the abnormally hot and dry summer has sucked most of the soil moisture that did penetrate out again. Mobile, 150 miles west, has been above average almost every month, even though they have been equally hot. For some reason, while all the areas west and south of me have had more or less normal or even greater than normal summer thunderstorm activity, there have been very few here. Between the aquifer and Lake Eufaula, I'll never run out of water. It's the landscaping and the native trees that suffer in these kinds of conditions. Of course, compared to South Carolina, I'll still take these conditions.
Quoting 95. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Well, I'm a little worried about my living room right now as I left the window open when I left this morning. Need to get this rain down and out of here by tomorrow morning. Have a long weekend camping trip happening! :-)
Looks like most of it should rotate through tonight, but the atmosphere will still be pretty unstable, so you'll probably get some afternoon thunderstorms. It's funny, of all the times I've left windows open in the house, I don't remember getting anything more than a spritz of water on the inside. I do remember worrying about it a lot. :-)
Quoting 94. hydrus:

I went 9/4/2..still believe couple more will form
8/2/1. No cookie for me...
Quoting 99. sar2401:

8/2/1. No cookie for me...
Well ya do get half, since you probably remember what happened during past Nino's.
Quoting 102. hydrus:

Well ya do get half, since you probably remember what happened during past Nino's.
Didn't help me any with this one though. Danged climate change...
Quoting 61. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's never good on the soil to have all the rain outside of the summer. Especially since you had so many hot days.


I remember the converse situation in Tallahassee with spring and fall being dry and summer and winter being wet. Although it happens some years, I never had a problem with dryness June 15-Sept 1 1985 or 1986. Winters are too cold and variable in TLH to grow most vegetables although I'd like another crack at the problem with the
knowledge I've gathered in the past thirty years.
Quoting 104. sar2401:

Didn't help me any with this one though. Danged climate change...


What about climate change?
We are sorry to hear of that news as I was just informed on FB.
Look! The ECMWF has a 1009 mb low in the Gulf of Honduras at 10 days out!! Better keep a close on on this one!!!

Look at those lows in the Pacific. 986 mb followed by a 972 low behind it. The stormy season is going to be starting early out there.

Quoting 107. FunnelVortex:



What about climate change?
That's what I said...
Quoting 109. sar2401:

Look! The ECMWF has a 1009 mb low in the Gulf of Honduras at 10 days out!! Better keep a close on on this one!!!

Look at those lows in the Pacific. 986 mb followed by a 972 low behind it. The stormy season is going to be starting early out there.




I have to say, it seems like the GFS is putting out less ghost storms this year than usual. During the last two hurricane seasons, it seemed like the GFS was aiming a Cat 2 at Tampa Bay seemingly every other run.
Quoting 106. georgevandenberghe:



I remember the converse situation in Tallahassee with spring and fall being dry and summer and winter being wet. Although it happens some years, I never had a problem with dryness June 15-Sept 1 1985 or 1986. Winters are too cold and variable in TLH to grow most vegetables although I'd like another crack at the problem with the
knowledge I've gathered in the past thirty years.

Just planted lettuce, onions, and broccoli here. We'll see if I'm tempting fate. We're due for a winter with less than 41 days below freezing.
Quoting 108. Patrap:
We are sorry to hear of that news as I was just informed on FB.
We were all together, one day, it was sunshiney...

...and there was Cake.
Quoting 111. tampabaymatt:



I have to say, it seems like the GFS is putting out less ghost storms this year than usual. During the last two hurricane seasons, it seemed like the GFS was aiming a Cat 2 at Tampa Bay seemingly every other run.
That role was taken over by the CMC this year, although even the CMC isn't showing anything headed our way over the next 10 days. It probably would if it went out to 14 days though.
Quoting 113. aquak9:

We were all together, one day, it was sunshiney...

...and there was Cake.
There's very little I hear about on FB that doesn't make me sorry, especially those cute kittens...
Quoting 108. Patrap:

We are sorry to hear of that news as I was just informed on FB.



What news?
Quoting 114. sar2401:

That role was taken over by the CMC this year, although even the CMC isn't showing anything headed our way over the next 10 days. It probably would if it went out to 14 days though.


Hasn't the CMC always been that way?
Quoting 44. PedleyCA:


Joaquin ruined it for me, I have 9/3/1
Mine was 10,4,2 as well.
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:



What news?
I'm pretty sure I know what the news is- something about El Faro but it seems they don't wish to speak of it here. It will be on the news tonight or tomorrow for sure.
Quoting 119. Sandcat:

I'm pretty sure I know what the news is- something about El Faro but it seems they don't wish to speak of it here. It will be on the news tonight or tomorrow for sure.
You think they found and retrieved the data recorder?
Quoting 120. BayFog:

I think it's way to early for them to have done that. My guess is more bodies. Just speculation but just reading what they are saying sorta cryptically it sounds that way. A few on here knew people on the ship... Sad
122. beell
Quoting 120. BayFog:



No. A member of wu from back in the early days passed today. Quite a colorful character.

A back channel commentary here that may appear cryptic to some.
Quoting 109. sar2401:

Look! The ECMWF has a 1009 mb low in the Gulf of Honduras at 10 days out!! Better keep a close on on this one!!!

Look at those lows in the Pacific. 986 mb followed by a 972 low behind it. The stormy season is going to be starting early out there.



be careful to not bite your tongue while it's planted in your cheek


Good works well remembered,
Would the El Faro crew had stood a better chance at survival had they launched far earlier into the emergency craft? They would have been sucked into the CDO surely. If you find yourself there, in any craft built by man; staring down a Cat 4, you'll be the last to see it like that.
Quoting 122. beell:



No. A member of wu from back in the early days passed today. Quite a colorful character.

A back channel commentary here that may appear cryptic to some.
Sorry to hear that. That's what I get for speculating. Sorry about your friend
Quoting 125. DeepSeaRising:

Would the El Faro crew had stood a better chance at survival had they launched far earlier into the emergency craft? They would have been sucked into the CDO surely. If you find yourself there, in any craft built by man; staring down a Cat 4, you'll be the last to see it like that.


They would have been chewed out by their bosses big time if they did that. Probably would get fired if you ditch the ship when you don't absolutley need to.
Quoting 127. FunnelVortex:



They would have been chewed out by their bosses big time if they did that. Probably would get fired if you ditch the ship when you don't absolutley need to.
Yes those were my initial thoughts as well. Had they ditched early they would have been out of jobs for sure and likely wouldn't have been any better off. I read that the ship had older generation life boats that were open, so the outcome would have been no more positive imho.
Quoting 127. FunnelVortex:



They would have been chewed out by their bosses big time if they did that. Probably would get fired if you ditch the ship when you don't absolutley need to.


I just wonder if they had the information that RI had occurred.
Stop guessing about the ship.   Let their bodies rest.  It is sad.  Unless any here are ship captains, NHC mets, or loved ones left behind, for real,  what are you doing?
Quoting 130. ATLsweather:

Stop guessing about the ship.   Let their bodies rest.  It is sad.  Unless any here are ship captains, NHC mets, or loved ones left behind, for real,  what are you doing?



It's the story of Joaquin. This ship, these lives are and will forever be. It was the blog topic yesterday. It's relevant.
Quoting 129. DeepSeaRising:



I just wonder if they had the information that RI had occurred.


I think we should also take into account the factor that they penalize the crews for late deliveries.

They could have gone the other way and sailed around Cuba, but it would have turned out bad for them that way as well (career-wise). They should have recieved a notice from the company to take an alternate route.

It's really not clear who to blame for this.
Quoting 130. ATLsweather:

Stop guessing about the ship.   Let their bodies rest.  It is sad.  Unless any here are ship captains, NHC mets, or loved ones left behind, for real,  what are you doing?
What?Are you a mod now? We're just talking about a tragedy and trying to get a handle on what may have led up to what ultimately happened. I don't think conversation about it is disrespectful to the deceased at all. If it offends you you have an ignore button.
OPC now has Oho marked out as a frontal system on the synoptic chart.
Quoting 130. ATLsweather:

Stop guessing about the ship.   Let their bodies rest.  It is sad.  Unless any here are ship captains, NHC mets, or loved ones left behind, for real,  what are you doing?


It's a really sad story but until NTSB and the Coast Guard has some answers we can only speculate about what happened. It was a terrible tragedy that we don't have many answers for and won't for a while. As long as no disrespectful comments are made, I don't have a problem with discussing the topic. I probably followed it as close as any, but will now wait patiently to have some answers. They will know more once they recover the data recorder from the ship but that may be a while since there is so much debris floating around down at the bottom. I see you liked this comment Pat so take this as respectfully as you can please :) I would also like to know your, Pat, opinion on what happened.
Thanks for the reminder of the storm count.
My guess was 12-6-2 and that's not going to happen now with 10-3-2 - the closest to mine could be either 12-5-2 or 13-6-2.
Quoting 132. FunnelVortex:



I think we should also take into account the factor that they penalize the crews for late deliveries.

They could have gone the other way and sailed around Cuba, but it would have turned out bad for them that way as well (career-wise). They should have recieved a notice from the company to take an alternate route.

It's really not clear who to blame for this.
My last comment about this. I'm not a merchant sea captain but I've been on the salt water for 40 years (recreational) so I do understand some things. A crew puts their faith in the captain. It's his/her decisions that make all the difference in a safe passage or calamity. My father told me this when I was like 10 years old and it stuck. He has captained a yacht to Mexico several times and sailed home from Canada upon his retirement. When people get on your ship/boat/yacht/skiff/whatever, YOU are responsible for their safety. Period. This crew had faith in the captain I'm sure. To clarify: I do not necessarily blame the captain because we don't have enough to go on but it seems some better decisions could have been made.
Quoting 137. Sandcat:

My last comment about this. I'm not a merchant sea captain but I've been on the salt water for 40 years (recreational) so I do understand some things. A crew puts their faith in the captain. It's his/her decisions that make all the difference in a safe passage or calamity. My father told me this when I was like 10 years old and it stuck. He has captained a yacht to Mexico several times and sailed home from Canada upon his retirement. When people get on your boat/yacht/skiff/whatever, YOU are responsible for their safety. Period. This crew had faith in the captain I'm sure.

Even the families said they still had faith in his decision making after they found out the El Faro sank.
Quoting 132. FunnelVortex:



I think we should also take into account the factor that they penalize the crews for late deliveries.

They could have gone the other way and sailed around Cuba, but it would have turned out bad for them that way as well (career-wise). They should have recieved a notice from the company to take an alternate route.

It's really not clear who to blame for this.
As with any tragedy of this scope, there are a number of people and factors at whom fingers can be pointed to some degree: forecasters, impatient higher-ups at the shipping company, frustrated clients, and so on. But--and this can't be emphasized enough--the captain is the ultimate authority as to whether, where, and when his/her ship sails. Period. The basic fact is that the captain of the El Faro piloted his heavily-laden, fully-crewed, 790-foot-cargo ship directly into the path of a growing hurricane. Perhaps he was pressured by his company; perhaps he was eager for a challenge; perhaps he thought he knew more than professional forecasters; perhaps he just made a mistake. Whatever; we'll likely never know what he was thinking. But interesting as that would be to know, the basic fact is that a large and loaded cargo ship was intentionally driven into the heart of a hurricane. Where the rubber meets the road, there's one person, and one person only, responsible for that.
Quoting 80. aquak9:

RIP, my friend Rand.

I think he would have liked this Wunderphoto as a send off.

Water with no where to go!
Uploaded by: 13468
Thursday October 8, 2015
Miami, FL
Caption: Sunrise, Miami Fl over Biscayne Bay with out of control high tide flooding our walkways, parking lots....just a description, not a complaint. Mosquitoes still out in full-force. Eyes out for salt-water crocs wandering over! There are some gorgeous images on here!!!!! We are still 'summer' going on summer!!
To lose power with the time to change course still there was the fateful event that left them listing and helplessly being dragged into Joaquin's CDO. Tragedy of events.
144. IDTH
I didn't give a prediction, maybe next year.
Looks like enough of a circulation to declare a tropical depression.
Comments be disappearing!
Philippines run of luck may be up in the West Pacific as they may be UTG next week.
Quoting 148. PensacolaDoug:
Comments be disappearing!
All of Rand's posts used to disappear, too.

Thank you for being my friend, VortFix.
Quoting 135. RavensFan:


It's a really sad story but until NTSB and the Coast Guard has some answers we can only speculate about what happened. It was a terrible tragedy that we don't have many answers for and won't for a while. As long as no disrespectful comments are made, I don't have a problem with discussing the topic. I probably followed it as close as any, but will now wait patiently to have some answers. They will know more once they recover the data recorder from the ship but that may be a while since there is so much debris floating around down at the bottom. I see you liked this comment Pat so take this as respectfully as you can please :) I would also like to know your, Pat, opinion on what happened.


The Sea takes her toll even from the experienced. I sailed the Atlantic twicce and I still respect her.

Bad mojo can only follow a bad decision from the bridge,and sadly,in this case,it sent all to thedeep locker,souls and keel. May they be at peace.
The latest Euro prog has remnant Joaquin making landfall over NW Spain (Galicia) then drifting south along the coast and emerging into the Mediteranean. Now the progs don't indicate further development, but one has to wonder given the SSTs in the Med right now, and in light of the recent episodes of extreme weather in the region.
waterrising im seeing some signs.
I stand corrected Nea. Data says he traveled full bore right into never again. Thank you Baltimore Brian.
If all that data is true, plenty of outs headed into the storms path... the data recorder will tell the story of the dicision to head into it. Friend of mine said that maybe after he realized he got too deep into the storm that maybe he was headed for shelter in the eye. What do you guys think of that theory? I'm not sure about it. May they all rest in peace.
Quoting 158. RavensFan:

If all that data is true, plenty of outs headed into the storms path... the data recorder will tell the story of the dicision to head into it. Friend of mine said that maybe after he realized he got too deep into the storm that maybe he was headed for shelter in the eye. What do you guys think of that theory? I'm not sure about it. May they all rest in peace.
No one who's a sailor would think trying to sail through half the storm and the eyewall to get to the theoretical safety of the eye would make any sense. Until I read your post about your friend's theory, it never even crossed my mind. My own guess is that he was very much like an airplane pilot on short final for landing. There's still a very short window to put on some more power, gain some altitude, and go around if something goes haywire. It's a very short window, however, and you'd better be sure you have the power and attitude to do so. If not, you put the plane into the ground when you otherwise might have made the runway safely. The captain had the same short period of time to make a right choice out of many possible and, as we know now, bad choices. Without an official course and timeline, I don't know what choices he could have made. Certainly, taking to the lifeboats early or putting in at Nassau when Joaquin didn't appear to be any worse than what El Faro's sister ship just went through safely are not realistic choices. If the captain had not talked to the captain of the El Yanque before he entered the storm, he may very well have made different choices.

Just my own take on the discussion so far. I've been impressed, except for a few goofy exceptions, with how well people have behaved during the sinking discussion, and how much thought has been put into what may have gone wrong. There are a bunch of smart people here, as well as people who probably know a lot more about how hurricanes behave than the captain did. If the shipping company had someone like them in their office, much like airlines employ meteorologists to advise pilots, this tragedy may have been averted.
Quoting 155. islander101010:

waterrising im seeing some signs.

It sure is. Just happened to take a few pics of it today. That's your island in the back ground..

Quoting 146. BayFog:

Looks like enough of a circulation to declare a tropical depression.



Just need deep convection, so
Quoting 159. sar2401:

No one who's a sailor would think trying to sail through half the storm and the eyewall to get to the theoretical safety of the eye would make any sense. Until I read your post about your friend's theory, it never even crossed my mind. My own guess is that he was very much like an airplane pilot on short final for landing. There's still a very short window to put on some more power, gain some altitude, and go around if something goes haywire. It's a very short window, however, and you'd better be sure you have the power and attitude to do so. If not, you put the plane into the ground when you otherwise might have made the runway safely. The captain had the same short period of time to make a right choice out of many possible and, as we know now, bad choices. Without an official course and timeline, I don't know what choices he could have made. Certainly, taking to the lifeboats early or putting in at Nassau when Joaquin didn't appear to be any worse than what El Faro's sister ship just went through safely are not realistic choices. If the captain had not talked to the captain of the El Yanque before he entered the storm, he may very well have made different choices.

Just my own take on the discussion so far. I've been impressed, except for a few goofy exceptions, with how well people have behaved during the sinking discussion, and how much thought has been put into what may have gone wrong. There are a bunch of smart people here, as well as people who probably know a lot more about how hurricanes behave than the captain did. If the shipping company had someone like them in their office, much like airlines employ meteorologists to advise pilots, this tragedy may have been averted.
Agreed sar. I didn't comment on the safety of the eye for that reason.


may very well be heading into la nina next hurricane season.
For anyone interested:

The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services and the JAX Chamber are hosting the 2015 Florida Energy Summit from October 14-16, 2015, at the Hyatt Regency Jacksonville Riverfront in Jacksonville, Florida.

As the nation’s third largest consumer of energy, Florida must work to secure a stable, reliable and diverse supply of energy.

The Florida Energy Summit is a forum for the brightest minds from academic institutions and private industries, as well as public officials on the local, state and federal levels, to discuss the future of energy in Florida.

This year the summit will be held in Jacksonville, Florida, to showcase how Northeast Florida is leveraging America’s evolving energy sector to grow an economy that will serve its residents today and allow future generations to thrive.

Some key areas of innovation in Northeast Florida are:

– Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): The world’s first LNG-powered container ship will arrive in Jacksonville this fall and three more are planned to arrive by 2017. Two separate liquefication facilities are being built to address marine fueling and mid-market exporting opportunities.

– Compressed Natural Gas (CNG): Four public CNG stations are either open or under construction - with significant investment from both private companies and the public sector. Starting to see an aggressive move toward fleet conversion because there is confidence the infrastructure will be in place to handle the move.

– Clean Fuels Initiative: The North Florida Transportation Planning Organization created a Clean Fuels initiative addressing the full mix of alternative fuels (electric, propane, bio-fuel, etc.), and developing strategies to significantly reduce the use of diesel fuel in the region. Through this effort they have submitted for Federal designation as a Clean City.

For more information on the 2015 Florida Energy Summit or to receive updates about future summits, please email Energy@FreshFromFlorida.com.

Here is a list of events and presentations that will take place at the Summit from Oct. 14 - 16. There will be guest speakers and participants from numerous energy companies that will be in attendance. Link

I end with a personal motto of mine, "the future is now and progress is being made."
Quoting 122. beell:



No. A member of wu from back in the early days passed today. Quite a colorful character.

A back channel commentary here that may appear cryptic to some.
Is that THE Randrewl???? If so, much sadness...:-(
91A IMD's Dvorak intensity declares that we should have a formation of a depression.

India Meteorological Department
Satellite Bulletin Description
5:30 AM IST October 9 2015
========================

Arabian Sea
---------------------
Vortex 91A over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea centered near 14.0N 70.3E

INTENSITY T1.5

Bay of Bengal/Andaman Sea
------------------------------------
Vortex over northern Bay of Bengal and neighborhood centered near 21.5n 91.0E

INTENSITY T1.0
Quoting 154. BaltimoreBrian:

Collision course with a hurricane: How doomed U.S. ship met its end--El Faro went at full speed directly into hurricane's core

Guatemala landslide death toll tops 220; another 350 missing

NJ's Governor Christie takes sand dune fight to court
That story supports my view that Joaquin trapped that boat. If the storm hadn't taken that eastward jog on Wednesday, by Thursday the El Faro would have been in the lighter winds of Joaquin's SE quadrant. By Wednesday afternoon, when it became clear that the track and intensity were creating a worst case scenario, it was too late to turn back. Slowing down wouldn't have helped much. I agree with the person who recommended always having an escape route.
This is great news, I almost feel like we are entering a new world where renewable energy is taking over and we are now leaving behind the industrial age. It's like a transformation is going on. It's a great feeling and I have high hopes for our future generations.

USF team's invention turns wastewater into clean water, energy:



Dr. Robert Yeh and graduate student Robert Bair in India. They are both part of the team that made the NEWgenerator project a reality. (Photo courtesy Dr. Robert Yeh)

TAMPA --
An invention that got its start in a University of South Florida lab could be a game-changer for developing countries

It’s called the NEWgenerator, and it converts wastewater into clean water and renewable energy.

“It’s a resource recovery machine,” said Dr. Daniel Yeh, the researcher behind the project, who is also a professor at USF.

After four years of development, NEWgenerator will get its first big test when it’s deployed to India.

“This is really where the rubber meets the road,” said graduate student Robert Bair. “The plan now is we ship this to India, and I go alongside with it.”



The NEWgenerator, which converts wastewater into clean water and renewable energy, will be tested in India.

Bair will troubleshoot and make sure the invention works properly in a small town in Kerala, India. The community has communal toilets and poor sanitation.

The NEWgenerator will essentially link up with new self-cleaning toilets from an Indian company, which will ideally transform the way people use the bathroom. As an added bonus, it will give them more access to clean water and renewable energy.

“For them to be able to use the restroom with dignity and not have it be an interference, or a possible source of contamination would be my hope,” Bair said. “I want them to not have to worry about sanitation, for it to be just as normal as it is for us.”

The project was funded by both the Indian government and the Gates Foundation.
Quoting 159. sar2401:

No one who's a sailor would think trying to sail through half the storm and the eyewall to get to the theoretical safety of the eye would make any sense. Until I read your post about your friend's theory, it never even crossed my mind. My own guess is that he was very much like an airplane pilot on short final for landing. There's still a very short window to put on some more power, gain some altitude, and go around if something goes haywire. It's a very short window, however, and you'd better be sure you have the power and attitude to do so. If not, you put the plane into the ground when you otherwise might have made the runway safely. The captain had the same short period of time to make a right choice out of many possible and, as we know now, bad choices. Without an official course and timeline, I don't know what choices he could have made. Certainly, taking to the lifeboats early or putting in at Nassau when Joaquin didn't appear to be any worse than what El Faro's sister ship just went through safely are not realistic choices. If the captain had not talked to the captain of the El Yanque before he entered the storm, he may very well have made different choices.

Just my own take on the discussion so far. I've been impressed, except for a few goofy exceptions, with how well people have behaved during the sinking discussion, and how much thought has been put into what may have gone wrong. There are a bunch of smart people here, as well as people who probably know a lot more about how hurricanes behave than the captain did. If the shipping company had someone like them in their office, much like airlines employ meteorologists to advise pilots, this tragedy may have been averted.


Is the ocean calm in the center of an ocean hurricane? I would think there would still be some massive rollers even in the eye. The winds will be calm sure, but what about the ocean?
From the article:

ESCAPE ROUTE

Ship captains who reviewed the data said that on the morning of Sept. 30, still north of the Bahamas and hundreds of miles from the storm, Davidson still had three good options: slow down to assess the weather; turn around; or change course, heading west and hugging the Florida coast.

He would have had access to weather forecasts every few hours from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) giving the likely speed, strength and direction of the storm.

The El Faro took the Florida coast route on Aug. 25, when tropical storm Erika was heading toward the Caribbean. The decision not to use that route on Sept. 30 is unclear. The captain could have been worried about skirting the Florida coast and then threading between Cuba and the Bahamas in nasty weather, maritime experts said.

Astrometeor's point is well taken. In the eye tremendous seas would be coming from every direction, intersecting chaotically everywhere. Even in the eyewall there would be vicious cross seas.
Quoting 159. sar2401:

No one who's a sailor would think trying to sail through half the storm and the eyewall to get to the theoretical safety of the eye would make any sense. Until I read your post about your friend's theory, it never even crossed my mind. My own guess is that he was very much like an airplane pilot on short final for landing. There's still a very short window to put on some more power, gain some altitude, and go around if something goes haywire. It's a very short window, however, and you'd better be sure you have the power and attitude to do so. If not, you put the plane into the ground when you otherwise might have made the runway safely. The captain had the same short period of time to make a right choice out of many possible and, as we know now, bad choices. Without an official course and timeline, I don't know what choices he could have made. Certainly, taking to the lifeboats early or putting in at Nassau when Joaquin didn't appear to be any worse than what El Faro's sister ship just went through safely are not realistic choices. If the captain had not talked to the captain of the El Yanque before he entered the storm, he may very well have made different choices.

Just my own take on the discussion so far. I've been impressed, except for a few goofy exceptions, with how well people have behaved during the sinking discussion, and how much thought has been put into what may have gone wrong. There are a bunch of smart people here, as well as people who probably know a lot more about how hurricanes behave than the captain did. If the shipping company had someone like them in their office, much like airlines employ meteorologists to advise pilots, this tragedy may have been averted.

True... unfortunately it sailed forward into the eye. It's sad to know those related will be going home with nothing, heart wrenching tragedy. Box will uncover what communications were and why they headed where they did... thoughts and prayers to families involved.
According to news reports the El Faro sank in 15,000 feet of water. Finding the ship's data recorder could be difficult.
Quoting 128. Sandcat:

Yes those were my initial thoughts as well. Had they ditched early they would have been out of jobs for sure and likely wouldn't have been any better off. I read that the ship had older generation life boats that were open, so the outcome would have been no more positive imho.

Nothing can be done, let then rest in peace. What needs to be done is to educate those in charge, to prevent something like this to happen again. There should be a protocoled established. When there is an storm, in the same route of a ship, avoid it on time. Planning all the different scenarios, and alternatives, for a Captain that gets trapped in this kind of situations...
,
How could a 931mb hurricane lurk off the Florida coast for 3 days...and not generate so much as a swell? Last Friday, Saturday and Sunday (photo) pretty much looked like this on Fort Lauderdale beach...
178. vis0
Its time to start clearing the WxObs palette and observing the next WxTrend as mentioned on my zilly blog pg.3 cmnt#147

Lets see if what we see happening today (last 24hrs till next 48) stick around. Are you watching STS (Tx-Tn-Talahasse(FL) Triangle, the TnT is a reminder for the higher opportunity for active Wx during one of natures'  kids maximum "playtime"), good thing STS (as many here also post from time to time) alert us of the importance of a NOAA radio ANYWHERE it transmits. It might not play the top 10 hits but even better give you in a lifetime your top 10 (on avg) warnings that saved lives in your vicinity.

The ULL & Joaquin i mentioned on my blog was more due to aGW and you know i do not like to connect aGW every time thee is a massive wxEvent.  i explained on my blog why i did this time, zilly blog pg.3 ~cmmnt#144-46?
Wow!
The post is about Oho and the west coast.
And we are still on the ship problem.
Glad this isn't Fox news!
Ex Oho to Alaska and now the GFS with it's 2 week out Ex Hurricane going to near San Francisco! LOL





181. vis0

Quoting 14. sar2401:

Even with the higher number of storms than what most forecasts predicted, the fact Joaquin by itself has a higher ACE score than the rest of the season combined is a good indicator of the real season.
barely passed by though i'd like all ACE values to the 1/10,000 th decimal FOR ALL +TwF (positive Tropical Weather Formations, as TD,TI, TS, HUrr) just to be sure as my math skill sez 28.2075 v JQ's 28.3475 though the point is look what 1 +TwF did in ACE v. the rest, which even if the missing decimal values where maxd up JQ is still on top till...(add "Dennis the menace" theme song here for any weird +TwF El Nino / ENSO-e formation off UsofA coastline)
182. vis0
Quoting 64. 62901IL:



I think the door will soon swing shut on the tropics.

Or maybe a-no, I won't say it.
Don't see the door shutting, instead i see the door being taken off the sauna and placed on a walk in freezer. So maybe we'll see LOWs that almost seem to be warm core at the beginning but blowing up as cold core coast huggers.

Fantazy land as to a WxGeeks mind in reality havoc but imagine a superstorm that IS tropical as it crossed GoMx to ATL but then hugs coast as a Xtra-super duper** Noreaster (theres yer made up WxName newspaper headline)

**apology to "super duper Mary Gamarra" her nickname while she presented WxMaps on Telemundo.
XX/XX/XX
Quoting 172. BaltimoreBrian:

From the article:

ESCAPE ROUTE

Ship captains who reviewed the data said that on the morning of Sept. 30, still north of the Bahamas and hundreds of miles from the storm, Davidson still had three good options: slow down to assess the weather; turn around; or change course, heading west and hugging the Florida coast.

He would have had access to weather forecasts every few hours from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) giving the likely speed, strength and direction of the storm.

The El Faro took the Florida coast route on Aug. 25, when tropical storm Erika was heading toward the Caribbean. The decision not to use that route on Sept. 30 is unclear. The captain could have been worried about skirting the Florida coast and then threading between Cuba and the Bahamas in nasty weather, maritime experts said.



Shoulda anchored off South Beach for a bit and admired the babes! Send in the Zodiac for some good Cuban grub! Sad story and it need not have happened. So sorry for the families and friends of the crew.
+AMO
Good morning from Europe! Apart from approaching Ex-Joaquin in the Atlantic, weather action continues to affect northern Africa and later on Italy with its islands and the Adriatic countries. European Storm Forecast Experiment Estofex monitors the situation intensely (see below). I hope another flooding disaster can be avoided!


11 am local time. Source.

Storm Forecast, Valid: Fri 09 Oct 2015 06:00 to Sat 10 Oct 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Thu 08 Oct 2015 20:44, Forecaster: TUSCHY
A level 2 was issued for N-Algeria/Tunisia, Sicily, parts of Italy and the Tyrrhenian Sea mainly for damaging wind gusts, excessive rain, large to very large hail and tornadoes. A significant tornado event is possible over Sicily. ...

Excerpt from the synopsis:
Ex-Joaquin also approaches the western part of our forecast domain, but attendant moisture plume remains offshore until Saturday 06 UTC. Interesting to see ongoing shallow warm-core structure with tight low-tropospheric gradient and ongoing gale-force winds. Overall weakening trend will continue.
Pattern recognition features a classic event for the S-CNTRL Mediterranean regarding an outbreak of organized thunderstorms. Positive tilted trough over the W-Mediterranean acquires a neutral and during the end of the forecast even a slightly negative tilt while moving east. Substantial strengthening of the trough is forecast during the overnight hours, especially beyond 00Z. A sharp baroclinic zone, which runs from E-Algeria to N-Tunisia to Sicily, serves as focus for LL cyclogenesis. Not a big surprise to see ongoing model discrepancies about the final structure of the LL vortex. Local models even show two unique vortices evolving along that boundary and affecting the Tyrrhenian Sea during the forecast.


Excerpt from the discussion for the second half of the forecast period:
18-06 UTC:
Structuring vortex moves towards Sardegna/Tyrrhenian Sea with a developing broad warm sector covering an area from Tunisia to S-Italy. Warm sector features capped extreme CAPE values (MLCAPE of 3-4 kJ/kg) with steep lapse rates atop 16 g/kg mixed-layer mixing ratios. Around sunset, elevated thunderstorms continue to spread NE towards the Ionian Sea with an ongoing hail risk. Thereafter a temporal lull in activity is forecast (until 00Z).
Strong synoptic lift approaches Sicily beyond 00Z which should support a rapidly eroding cap and increasing chances for CI. MLCAPE in excess of 3 kJ/kg, 20 m/s 0-3 km shear and SRH-1 in excess of 300 m^2/s^2 will overlap and supercells with very large hail, excessive rain, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are anticipated. A significant tornado event can't be excluded as forecast hodographs show a looped signature with 50 kt at 800 hPa around 03Z over W-Sicily (GFS).
This activity spreads E/NE until 06Z and affects S-Italy, too. A level 3 was strongly considered, but timing issues of DMC activity and ongoing model discrepancies in coverage of storms kept this event in an high-end level 2.



Accumulated precipitation 24h until Sat 00z


Accumulatied precipitation 24h until Sun 00z
Source.


Ukmet phase diagram shows the development of a warm core, however asymmetric.

Special maps for convective events in Europe.

Southern Australia's heatwave smashed records as warmth starts to build again
October 9, 2015 - 2:40PM, Peter Hannam, Environment Editor, The Sydney Morning Herald
Southern Australia smashed heat records this month even without the usual warming in the Red Centre, and more hot weather is on the way, the Bureau of Meteorology says.
All of the bureau's main weather stations in NSW south of the Sydney-Dubbo line set early-season heat records this month, as did all but one of Victoria's main sites, the bureau said in a special climate statement.
Heatwaves baking south-eastern Australia typically draw their extreme warmth from inland Australia, but not this event.
The hot spell intensified as a big high-pressure system sat over Brisbane, steering warm winds over south-eastern regions of the country, only to be replaced with another large one.
Both Sydney and Williamtown broke October pressure records on Thursday, Dr Trewin said. ...

More see link above.


From the article above.

locally seawater is highest ive seen it since november 1994 its still rising so it has a chance to be higher e,cen.fl.
Quoting 189. islander101010:

locally seawater is highest ive seen it since november 1994 its still rising so it has a chance to be higher e,cen.fl.

Yesterday was the highest I'd seen it in a long time. Left you a pic #160.
if people really care about the mosquito lagoon there will have to be radical changes. this banning of using fertilizers during rainy season was a step in the right direction. hopefully some more changes are made.
another new condo development just down the street. does anyone care this is an evac zone? its already overpopulated.
Quoting 159. sar2401:

No one who's a sailor would think trying to sail through half the storm and the eyewall to get to the theoretical safety of the eye would make any sense. Until I read your post about your friend's theory, it never even crossed my mind. My own guess is that he was very much like an airplane pilot on short final for landing. There's still a very short window to put on some more power, gain some altitude, and go around if something goes haywire. It's a very short window, however, and you'd better be sure you have the power and attitude to do so. If not, you put the plane into the ground when you otherwise might have made the runway safely. The captain had the same short period of time to make a right choice out of many possible and, as we know now, bad choices. Without an official course and timeline, I don't know what choices he could have made. Certainly, taking to the lifeboats early or putting in at Nassau when Joaquin didn't appear to be any worse than what El Faro's sister ship just went through safely are not realistic choices. If the captain had not talked to the captain of the El Yanque before he entered the storm, he may very well have made different choices.

Just my own take on the discussion so far. I've been impressed, except for a few goofy exceptions, with how well people have behaved during the sinking discussion, and how much thought has been put into what may have gone wrong. There are a bunch of smart people here, as well as people who probably know a lot more about how hurricanes behave than the captain did. If the shipping company had someone like them in their office, much like airlines employ meteorologists to advise pilots, this tragedy may have been averted.


My initial thought was that perhaps a rouge wave hit the ship, knocking out the conning tower. This would explain much. As someone who spent four years at sea with the Navy, I can tell you running through storms is not unusual. We regularly put to sea in our 641' ship as storms approached, as it was safer in the ocean then at port. Perhaps the Captain felt the safest route was directly into the storm, as it was the fastest to the other side.

On a side note, I've been lurking here for 6 years learning about the weather but not really qualified to comment as it is not my forte. You are all quite entertaining.
6Z GFS today still shows a storm out of the Carribean from the 19th thru 21st this month..
I never knew the water was so deep around the Bahamas, I would have that with so many islands in the area the waters would be fairly shallow in and around the Bahamas. Prayers to all the family and friends affected by this tragedy, it truly is sad.
Quoting 194. LargoFl:

6Z GFS today still shows a storm out of the Carribean from the 19th thru 21st this month..


GFS with all its drawbacks is till consistently developing a storm of sorts. We will see.
Quoting 193. InsAdj:



On a side note, I've been lurking here for 6 years learning about the weather but not really qualified to comment as it is not my forte. You are all quite entertaining.


Good morning

I'm probably the least qualified to comment on weather in this blog but really, all these guys and gals welcomed me and have never made me feel inadequate or not welcome. Join in once in a while....it's interesting and great fun interacting with them!

Lindy
Quoting 190. Skyepony:


Yesterday was the highest I'd seen it in a long time. Left you a pic #160.


15 days straight of street flooding tides on Sugarloaf Key. I tried to post a picture taken with my phone but I couldn't get it to upload. Tide is covering the dock right now.


I've been following this blog for years and years and while I have little scientific background in weather, I learn a lot and have come to understand more about weather. Plus often the info here is more up to date than elsewhere on the Web. I have request: Could those who post graphics and nothing else, please give laypeople a phrase or sentence to understand what we are looking at? Even if it seems obvious to you, it may not always be so for everyone. Thanks.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 163. guygee:

World's oceans facing biggest coral die-off in history, scientists warn


NOAA Coral Reef Watch Satellite Monitoring Home Page

I would think this is what a Super Nino is capable of doing, along with raising the air temps as well. Nothing new here.