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Europe cold wave deaths hit 200; low-snow winter for the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2012

Brutal winter cold continues over most of Europe, where at least 200 people have died in a cold wave that began January 26. Hardest hit has been Ukraine, where the temperature bottomed out at -17°F (-27°C) at the capital of Kyiv this morning. It was the second coldest day of the cold wave, behind the -28°C reading of February 2. These temperatures are the coldest winter weather in six years in Ukraine, and at least 101 deaths are being blamed on the cold there. Also hard-hit has been Poland, where 37 people, most of them homeless, have died from the cold. Rome, Italy experienced a rare snowfall today, only its second day with snow during the past fifteen years. Very cold temperatures 10 - 20°C below average will continue for another seven days in Europe before gradually moderating late next week.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average as analyzed by the GFS model, for February 2, 2012. Remarkably cold air was present over Europe and western Alaska, while very warm air was over central North America and Siberia. This image is being generated experimentally by wunderground, and will be regularly available on our web site in the future.

Meanwhile, a snow drought for the U.S.
In the U.S., it's been the opposite story, with temperatures 10 - 15°F above average continuing this week over much of the nation. January 2012 is in the weather record books as the 3rd least-snowy January for the contiguous U.S. since snow records began in 1966, and December 2011 ranked as the 11th least snowy December on record. With no major snow storms in the offing over at least the next ten days, it's looking probable that the non-winter of 2011 - 2012 will set numerous record-low seasonal snowfall totals. The National Weather Service sends out a daily "Weather and Almanac" product for several hundred major U.S. cities that we make available on wunderground. I went through yesterday's statistics for those cities that reported measurable snow this winter. Only nine cities out of 166 major U.S. cities in the lower 48 states reported above-average snowfall as of February 1; 157 cities received below-average snowfall. The big winner in the snow sweepstakes has been Alaska, which is boasting 8 of the top 10 locations for heaviest snowfall this winter. While the 27.75 feet of snow that has fallen on Valdez has gotten a lot of attention, more remarkable is the 18.8 feet of snow Yakutat has received. That's more than 12.5 feet above what they usually have by this time of year.



The big losers in the snow stats for this winter are the cities along the lake effect snow belts on the Great Lakes. Most notably, Syracuse, New York is nearly four feet of snow below average for this time of year. Perhaps more exceptional is Williston, North Dakota, which has received just 1.8" of snow this winter--more than two feet below their average for February 1.



Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Freezed Guy
Freezed Guy
Windows in the winter
Windows in the winter
Snowy Golosiiv wood...
The snow and sun
The snow and sun
Maximum temperature today -21c in the afternoon.
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
Bulbs - Northern IL Jan. 31, 2012
Noooo Babies! Hide, hide! It's a trick! It's too early.
Winter
Winter
Frozen River
Frozen River

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Ameister12:
The Texas drought is still exceptional, but it's shrinking. Southern Texas is getting some nice rain right now, which still desperately needs it.

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.
Quoting Patrap:




I am glad someone posted this...so I am not the only one that's noticed this disturbance in the NW Caribbean.

Its a surface trough that is supported by a cut-off upper trough. A lot of wind shear across the surface trough....but a bit interesting for February....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Yeah, but thats still not as creepy as the lamp shades, or the amount of pillows on that couch.

Lol.
Quoting Ameister12:

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.


The drought also helped to keep Don suppressed...a strong upper anticyclone supported by the hot air of the drought put northerly shear across Don. When Don neared the Texas coast, it coughed on the dry air & dissipated very rapidly....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The drought will come back in full-force in a few months.



I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80.
Quoting Ameister12:

You're probably right. They really need a soaker of a tropical storm. Not a troll like Don.



Sigh. That's true too.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:



I'm hoping not. We've had around 10 inches of rain in SE TX since December. But we're still holding our breath that the rains will be enough when the heat hits. Hopefully this winter's temps aren't a sign of things to come. Not much of a break on that front. Broke another high temp record yesterday at 80.

This is just through April. :\



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Find it...but when you do, don't tell anybody. :D

I honestly don't know how I missed it the first time.



... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..
Quoting CybrTeddy:


... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..

I would be afraid...very afraid.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is just through April. :\






The temps have been accurate but December and January looked just like that for the precipitation and it has been the complete opposite. Houston is about to get another round of nice rain and the bayous here are pretty high if not bank full at the moment.

We will take all we can for the moment! Hoping this pattern can continue through March and April. Especially if we are in for another summer like the last one.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


... is that.. Grothar?

Can't be..


GET OUT OF MY LIVING ROOM!!!!! I told you all I couldn't be photographed.
I would think that the Texas drought will return over the spring, then lift over the summer as we phase into neutral.
RIP Andy Gabrielson
UK town search for source of mysterious radio interferences
Posted on February 5, 2012

February 5, 2012 – UNITED KINGDOM – Residents living near an Army barracks say their village green became a mysterious ‘Bermuda Triangle’ after their remote-control car door locks were jammed by radio interference. Motorists in Waterbeach, Cambridgeshire, say the locks on their cars refused to work when they parked at the village green. Modern push-button ignitions were also scuppered by the unknown, eerie interference. Some members of the group had to get lifts home and return with manual overrides. The following day the group, including professional scientists, returned with sophisticated monitoring equipment and found ‘ultra-high frequency bands’ was causing the block. Professional scientist Wojciech Piotrowski said the mystery frequency was likely to have been caused by the military, but admitted a faulty TV or fridge could also be to blame. He said: ‘A strong electrical interference source was radiating radio signals in one of the ultra-high frequency bands at the southern end of the Green. ‘The primary user of this band is the military. However, by Sunday, the problem seemed to have gone. ‘It was really weird but being the radio hams that we are, we sort of knew it was an interference of some kind. The amateur radio group believe wireless devices in nearby homes, such as thermostats, remote light dimmers, switches and energy meters will have been affected. An engineer was today investigating the interference after the group reported their findings to communications watchdog, Ofcom. A spokesperson for the Army, which operates Waterbeach Barracks, said: ‘We are not aware of anything happening at Waterbeach that would have caused anything remotely like that.’ This is the first time an English village has experienced mysterious electronics failures. Last month residents of Kingsclere in Hampshire, near the world-famous Watership Down Hill, were baffled when their heating, showers, doorbells and car remote locks refused to work. They spent much of the festive season without heating and lights after the failure of household systems that rely on digital technology. –Daily Mail
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
This is starting to creep me out.



A magnitude 5.7 earthquake offshore Vancouver Island, and a magnitude 4.3 offshore southern Oregon, all within the span of 31 minutes. Let's look back at the earthquake events I've deemed "significant" in the Cascadia region.

September 1, 2009 - August 31, 2010: 2 earthquakes M6.5 or higher, both offshore northern California.

September 1, 2010 - August 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (both offshore Oregon).

September 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (a M6.4 offshore Vancouver Island, and a ~M5 quake offshore southern Oregon).

January 1, 2012 - February 5 (early morning), 2012: 3 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (one south of Queen Charlotte Islands, another offshore Vancouver Island).

there is a couple of bigger ones than that coming
Just curious, does anyone here have a program called AVN Retriever 1.12?
If you don't you can download it here
This is what AVN Retriever will give you,


It's mainly for Australia but can be customized to any location. The GOM on AVN retriever is Long -99 Lat 15. Lng Wdth and Lat Hght can be set to any number, I have it set at 25 which gives me this.
20 inches of snow in the backyard now. Finally subsided today.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
18:00 PM FST February 5 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (992 hPa) located at 22.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation.

Organization has improved in the last 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to northeast semi-circle. Low level circulation center has become obscured and difficult to locate in past 3 hours. Outflow good to north through east to southeast but restricted elsewhere. System lies along a surface trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The depression is being steered eastwards by westerly deep layer mean flow into a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 28C

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Good morning to all. Only 116 days left to June 1rst. Time goes fast and without noticing,we will be immersed into the Atlantic Hurricane season. My condolenses to Andy's family. Rest in peace.
Good Morning.

...the heck is this thing?


Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10:45 pm EST on Sunday 5 February 2012
At 10 pm EST Sunday, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (Category 2) with central
pressure 978 hPa was located over the Coral sea near latitude 17.0 south
longitude 154.9 east, which is about 760 km northeast of Mackay and 890 km east
northeast of Townsville.

The cyclone is moving east at about 22 kilometres per hour and should gradually
intensify over the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine is not expected to directly affect the Queensland
coast.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am EST.
Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel.

Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway.
Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church.

looks like an LLC in construction...


0.o
Quoting SPLbeater:
Hey all. up early so i got a few mins 'fore church.

looks like an LLC in construction...


0.o
thanks for this, guess we might get some rain today, 30% chance the weather guy says
10P JASMINE

Mornin', ever'body...

R we tracking this???



Also, anybody from Cayman been on since yesterday morning?
Cuba mosaic radar loop.

Link

Very tropical weather here today.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Got some weak banding on key west radar, but clearly that can't see anywhere near far enough to see the strongest storms in the Yucatan channel.

Actually looks less organized than 12 hours ago, so it's probably got no chance anyway.

Here you go:
<------- is off to install a Drop ceiling at a Honey Baked Ham store.

Super cash for Work on Super Sunday.

Enjoy the GOM/Caribbean Novelty player's



Quoting kmanislander:


Hi there

Very interesting for the "off season" but not a drop of rain in Grand Cayman today, at least not where I live. All high cloud stuff,or all bark and no bite
Would have thought u would have seen whatever there was to see at ur end...

Looks like whatever's there is lifting to ur west, meaning we r more likely to get some effects from it today. It's been pretty much overcast and still here this a.m., but I expect that'll change...
If i had to pick, i'd probably buy the ECMWF solution, but at least the models haven't completely given up on winter... although, i do think that one of them predicted a phantom snowstorm last weekend or the weekend before :/

Albany, NY:
THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THAT WILL APPROACH FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT...HOWEVER DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ARE NOTED BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
GFS INITIALLY STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A WAVE
ALONG IT. THE ECMWF HOWEVER...HAS THE FRONT CLEANLY SWEEPING THROUGH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY SATURDAY. SINCE THIS
LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS THE FIRST TO LATCH ONTO THIS SOLUTION WILL
NOT BUY IN JUST YET...BUT A FEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING
DECENT QPF SO WILL AT LEAST MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME TO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY.

FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...ON SATURDAY THE GFS HAS THE SURFACE CYCLONE
PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AS IT DEEPENS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE ECMWF
HAS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME SO
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
Quoting Skyepony:
10P JASMINE

Yikes. And it's supposed to get stronger as it approaches central Fiji...

This is one to watch.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F
0:00 AM FST February 6 2012
====================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAIN IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAIN IN FORCE FOR ALL TONGA LAND AREAS.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10F (991 hPa) located at 23.4S 178.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has not improved much past 24 hours. Convection increased in past 24 hours but confined to eastern semi-circle. Low level circulation center difficult to locate. Outflow good to north and east but restricted elsewhere. System lies just to the east of an eastward moving upper trough and beneath an upper diffluent region. The system lies under a high sheared environment and is being steered eastwards. Sea surface temperature around 27C.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it east-southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is low to moderate.

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
My first Tropical Update of the Year.....its Freaking February LOL
A Warming Globe will do dat TS.

Go Giants!!!




Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Here you go:


Looks to be a spin developing just ENE of the tip of the Yucatan....
Quoting Patrap:
A Warming Globe will do dat TS.

Go Giants


YEPPERS....i like the Giants also....


We have 850MB Vort!!!



And the shear has dropped considerably since yesterday!
Gotta run get some Party stuff....You all have a great day and God Bless!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Looks to be a spin developing just ENE of the tip of the Yucatan....

Whatever it is, it's still very broad.


TC JASMINE 983HPA NEAR 17.2S 154.1E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F 992HPA NEAR 22.8S 179.9W
LOW 994HPA NEAR 33.0S 161.0E

---------
pretty active surface map
Quoting WxGeekVA:


We have 850MB Vort!!!

...feels like hurricane season.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

...feels like hurricane season.


If I didn't know better I would say this looks like a soon-to-be subtropical depression....

535:

Hey, could you give the link for that graphic please?

That is awesome. I've never seen a composite like that for the Caribbean...
Quoting RTSplayer:
535:

Hey, could you give the link for that graphic please?

That is awesome. I've never seen a composite like that for the Caribbean...


See #534.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
This is starting to creep me out.



A magnitude 5.7 earthquake offshore Vancouver Island, and a magnitude 4.3 offshore southern Oregon, all within the span of 31 minutes. Let's look back at the earthquake events I've deemed "significant" in the Cascadia region.

September 1, 2009 - August 31, 2010: 2 earthquakes M6.5 or higher, both offshore northern California.

September 1, 2010 - August 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (both offshore Oregon).

September 1, 2011 - December 31, 2011: 4 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (a M6.4 offshore Vancouver Island, and a ~M5 quake offshore southern Oregon).

January 1, 2012 - February 5 (early morning), 2012: 3 earthquakes, including 2 above M4.5 (one south of Queen Charlotte Islands, another offshore Vancouver Island).

Agreed. I vaguely recall that the fault these quakes are reminding us of is one that can produce devastating tsunami. Seattle and Vancouver, not to mention the rest of the west coast, would be sitting ducks.
Perfect. Best graphic ever. Wish I'd discovered that years ago.


Figure our disturbance can't possibly dodge this front, so it's got maybe 24 hours to earn a name.
See if this works.

About a dozen 3 to 7 degree record breaks, including several cases where the previous record was within the past 20 years.


The low is a tie, and the low max is a 1 degree break.

Records
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mornin', ever'body...

R we tracking this???



Also, anybody from Cayman been on since yesterday morning?


Well...I know I am tracking this. I didn't expect to see more organization like I am this morning.

Dude...if this becomes an Invest....this will be a very very rare occurrence for February. I don't even know if a tropical invest has ever happened in February before.
Did I post a link here yesterday about the concern in the early 1930s that our climate was changing? And they meant warming at the time, which is no surprise, given the kind of weather they'd been having [Dust Bowl, extreme highs / floods / numbers of tropical cyclones in the basin]. It just reminds me of all the recent hype and makes me wonder if anything serious will be done in the long term. Sure didn't seem so, after last time.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I know I am tracking this. I didn't expect to see more organization like I am this morning.

Dude...if this becomes an Invest....this will be a very very rare occurrence for February. I don't even know if a tropical invest has ever happened in February before.


Yes, it has.

Once in January and once in February.

We searched it the other day when the models started to hint something might happen.

1952Groundhog day TS

Maybe it's a 60 year event?

List of some tropical "Earliest" facts
What I understand about the NW Caribbean Disturbance.

(1) Its a surface trough supported by a far south cut-off upper trough. The cut-off upper trough was mid-latitude in origin and I beleive became cut-off on February 1st in the Bay of Campeche (and has been tracking slowly east since then).

(2) There may now be a rotation developing along the surface trough just east of the Yucatan shoreline this morning based on the developing organization of the cloud bands.

(3) The water temps are 27 to 28 deg C below....

(4) Wind shear in this spot is lowest in the Atlatnic basin as the divergent southerly upper winds (which are supporting the surface trough) are only 90 deg opposed to the low-level easterly trade winds. Wind shear elsewhere is much much higher with upper westerlies 180 deg opposed to the low-level easterly trade winds.

The only negative factor is that convevctive mass over Texas streaming eastward...which is the next cut-off upper trough that could absorb this system before it has a chance to develop. However...I would not be surprised if this next cut-off upper trough also becomes an interesting feature down the road....
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yes, it has.

Once in January and once in February.

We searched it the other day when the models started to hint something might happen.

1952Groundhog day TS

Maybe it's a 60 year event?

List of some tropical "Earliest" facts


Interesting...I didn't know the models hinted at this in days past (or that an Atlantic tropical system happened in February before).

When I saw 200 mb upper EASTERLY winds over the US (which I thought was unusual for February)...I was dumbfounded to see an impressive 200 mb fully closed anticyclone over south Canada (again I thought strange for February)!

I think as mid-latitude disturbances rotate around this 200 mb anticyclone....a part of them gets cut-off when they dive southward to the east of that anticyclone. The next cut-off looks to me developing over Texas. I wonder if this pattern of cut-off upper troughs might support an unusually early period of Atlantic subtropical development?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I know I am tracking this. I didn't expect to see more organization like I am this morning.

Dude...if this becomes an Invest....this will be a very very rare occurrence for February. I don't even know if a tropical invest has ever happened in February before.
According to Grothar, who saw it all, we had a TC in Feb in 1952. Definitely not an ordinary occurance.

I just read the story about the storm chaser who was killed in the auto accident. I find it ironic that he survived all those deadly and potentially deadly tornados, only to be killed by someone going the wrong way on the highway.... possibly even drunk or high [i. e. out of control]. It just goes to show that you should live your life to the best of your ability. I'm glad he started chasing early, and didn't wait until he was "old enough" to learn his craft and follow his passion.
hey guys long time no see I have been having overcast rainy conditions over the last couple of days here in GCM I like it I hope it can stay longer anyone have any ideas on what is going on and also what is going on with the blog as I said I haven't been on for a good while so I need to know what I missed
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys long time no see I have been having overcast rainy conditions over the last couple of days here in GCM I like it I hope it can stay longer anyone have any ideas on what is going on and also what is going on with the blog as I said I haven't been on for a good while so I need to know what I missed
Hey.... was wondering if you guys would check in over the weekend. We've been looking at the wx in ur area and wondering if we might get a very rare Feb STS out of it.... It sure looks interesting on satellite and radar, anyway.
Quoting BahaHurican:
According to Grothar, who saw it all, we had a TC in Feb in 1952. Definitely not an ordinary occurance.

I just read the story about the storm chaser who was killed in the auto accident. I find it ironic that he survived all those deadly and potentially deadly tornados, only to be killed by someone going the wrong way on the highway.... possibly even drunk or high [i. e. out of control]. It just goes to show that you should live your life to the best of your ability. I'm glad he started chasing early, and didn't wait until he was "old enough" to learn his craft and follow his passion.


So if anything happens...will be the first since '52...wow! In general, I think we have an omega block pattern with a 200 mb anticyclone over S Canada with cut-off systems developing to the southeast. The cut-off in the NW Caribbean today is only the first...the next cut-off is forming over Texas. I wonder if these cut-offs will trigger some interesting subtropical cyclone potential over the next days as we are seeing now.

I was ticked off when I read that story about the accident, how someone foolish can take people's lives away so senselessly. It put it into perspective to me....he was born the same year I was born.
A Little Super Bowl tune! Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey.... was wondering if you guys would check in over the weekend. We've been looking at the wx in ur area and wondering if we might get a very rare Feb STS out of it.... It sure looks interesting on satellite and radar, anyway.
CMC wants to bring some cold air down. I dont put much faith in it tho. Models just havent done that well past 5 days..144 hours.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey.... was wondering if you guys would check in over the weekend. We've been looking at the wx in ur area and wondering if we might get a very rare Feb STS out of it.... It sure looks interesting on satellite and radar, anyway.
Good morning. I have been lurking since the end of hurricane season. I don't know what will happen with this blob but we finally had some beneficial rain this morning and still pretty overcast.
I just read the groundhogs day 1952 tropical storm article on Wikipedia. Its ironic to me that it formed in the exact same spot this system appears to be spinning up at right now. That doesn't mean the fate of this system will be equal to that of the 1952 storm (which struck south Florida & tracked offshore of the US east coast), but I thought it ironic.

This system probably has a small shot at development before the next cut-off upper trough from Texas streams eastward and absorbs it.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I just read the groundhogs day 1952 tropical storm article on Wikipedia. Its ironic to me that it formed in the exact same spot this system appears to be spinning up at right now. That doesn't mean the fate of this system will be equal to that of the 1952 storm (which struck south Florida & tracked offshore of the US east coast), but I thought it ironic.

This system probably has a small shot at development before the next cut-off upper trough from Texas streams eastward and absorbs it.
current radar has alot of yellow and green seemingly headed for fort meyers, have to watch it today
Arctic Sea Ice quality is very poor this year already.

Overall, 30% extent is about the same or lower than last year, by the time you take the excess in a few places and fill it in the places that are far lower.

Daily Arctic Sea Ice

However the quality is very low even in places where the 30% extent is about the same, which is to say 80% has become 50 to 60%.

The volume modeling claims this year is about the same volume as last year on the same day, but that's just a model. At least Area and Extent are pure data.

Arctic Sea Ice 15% extent.



Still holding about 250k below previous records.



Only place that's above the median is the Bering Straits, and that hardly makes up for everything else being absurdly low.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. I have been lurking since the end of hurricane season. I don't know what will happen with this blob but we finally had some beneficial rain this morning and still pretty overcast.
Good morning C.I. Glad to hear you had some decent rain, even drought stricken Texas is getting in on the action. Hope you are doing well..
Many of you that don't recognize the name Andy Gabrielson have probably seen this video...He filmed it.

Quoting RTSplayer:
See if this works.

About a dozen 3 to 7 degree record breaks, including several cases where the previous record was within the past 20 years.


The low is a tie, and the low max is a 1 degree break.

Records
The month is young, of course, but over the first four days of February so far, record highs (and high minimums) in the contiguous United States have outnumbered record lows (and low maxiumums) by 655 to 1.
Quoting LargoFl:
current radar has alot of yellow and green seemingly headed for fort meyers, have to watch it today


Regardless of development, this system will bring rainfall to south Florida...west Cuba, and the Cayman Islands.

Depending on how far east it gets knocked when the Texas shortwave upper trough arrives...it could bring rain as far east as Jamaica, east Cuba, and the Bahamas.

The question I have is what this area will look like once the Texas shortwave will arrive? If it stays cut-off like this west Caribbean system has....could it be the next area of interest?
Sometimes using the preview comment feature can make your avatar temporarily disappear. Maybe go to another blog or outside the blogs still in WU..something like that might force it back..
Here come Alberto.

Share: 0
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------- ------------
12 GMT 02/5/12 22.0N 86.0W 25 1014 Invest
Quoting RTSplayer:
Arctic Sea Ice quality is very poor this year already.

Overall, 30% extent is about the same or lower than last year, by the time you take the excess in a few places and fill it in the places that are far lower.

Daily Arctic Sea Ice

However the quality is very low even in places where the 30% extent is about the same, which is to say 80% has become 50 to 60%.

The volume modeling claims this year is about the same volume as last year on the same day, but that's just a model. At least Area and Extent are pure data.
It's interesting to note that over the past three weeks, there's been a total net gain of Arctic Sea ice area of just 54,998 square kilometers. By comparison, during the same three-week period last year, there was a net gain in Arctic SIA of 1,006,085 km2, while in 2007 that three-week gain was 944,455 km2. There's talk of a new low maximum record this year, but that remains to be seen; to do that, no larger a net gain than an additional 600,000 km2 or so can be added over the next month, and it's still possible for freezing to go on a ten-day (or more) run. (Last year's ice max was on March 9; in 2007, that happened on February 27.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The month is young, of course, but over the first four days of February so far, record highs (and high minimums) in the contiguous United States have outnumbered record lows (and low maxiumums) by 655 to 1.


What I'd like to know is how the jet stream gets locked in so we have a string of unusually warm/cold days. I believe right now the jet stream has a giant crest (ridge) over North America...and a giant dip (trough) over Europe....so its been warm over North America but exceedingly cold over Europe. But how does such a significant jet stream lock up happen?

P.S....I think the jet stream crest (ridge) over North America is letting cut-off systems like this west Caribbean disturbance get interesting. Usually something like this during this time of year gets ripped apart with wind shear by a more southward jet stream pattern.
Invest 90
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here come Alberto.

Share: 0
Time Lat Lon Wind(mph) Pressure Storm type
------------------------------------------------- ------------
12 GMT 02/5/12 22.0N 86.0W 25 1014 Invest

Where do you see that at?

EDIT: A very rare event guys...WE HAVE INVEST 90L.

We have an Invest. In February.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you see that at?


here
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning C.I. Glad to hear you had some decent rain, even drought stricken Texas is getting in on the action. Hope you are doing well..
I have been around. I see that Texas has been getting some. Thank goodness because they needed it more than ever. Doing good.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Where do you see that at?

EDIT: A very rare event guys...WE HAVE INVEST 90L.


OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now I am predicting the NHC will mention this in a special tropical weather outlook later today!!!!!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What I'd like to know is how the jet stream gets locked in so we have a string of unusually warm/cold days. I believe right now the jet stream has a giant crest (ridge) over North America...and a giant dip (trough) over Europe....so its been warm over North America but exceedingly cold over Europe. But how does such a significant jet stream lock up happen?

P.S....I think the jet stream crest (ridge) over North America is letting cut-off systems like this west Caribbean disturbance get interesting. Usually something like this during this time of year gets ripped apart with wind shear by a more southward jet stream pattern.
Very odd, to be sure. But not everywhere in Europe is frigid. For instance, Svalbard, Norway, which is north of the Arctic Circle, has been running 15-25 degrees above normal for the past several days, and is expected to do so again a few times this week. Rain is expected there on Tuesday. Rain. At 79 degrees North. In the first week of February. When the sun hasn't risen for months.

Weird. Definitely weird.
I just checked the navy page...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I don't see Invest 90L. Unless my Navy page isn't updating....what other sources show declared invests? I am curious...
"Here it comes again,filling my soul,never wants to let go"
90L is in! Unbelieveable thing - it's only February!
579:

Could this be positive feedback from last year's Methane torches?

Bubbles de-stratified the water and made the surface warmer than usual? Maybe?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I just checked the navy page...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

I don't see Invest 90L. Unless my Navy page isn't updating....what other sources show declared invests? I am curious...

ATCF/Navy don't have it up yet. Hope it is not a mistake by Wunderground because I've already spread it around the entire weather community. :P
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Well...I know I am tracking this. I didn't expect to see more organization like I am this morning.

Dude...if this becomes an Invest....this will be a very very rare occurrence for February. I don't even know if a tropical invest has ever happened in February before.


It is now listed as Invest 90!
amazing
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF/Navy don't have it up yet. Hope it is not a mistake by Wunderground because I've already spread it around the entire weather community. :P


No....you're right...its posted on Wunderground. Maybe Dr. M's got big connections...LOL

I keep refreshing the Navy page in disbelief (and the NHC webpage too)....I am so eager to see it on either of those sights first!

In the very long range....I wouldn't be suprised if the disturbance over Texas streams east...gets cut-off...and becomes Invest 91L. This is how Invest 90L essentially began....
ATCF doesnt have it listed either.
Invest 90L.
deleted : refreshed the previous page and the proper images appeared
Nothing at atcf,is this true?
Yeah hurricane season may start early
And thus the Hurricane Season ritual begins:
F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5.
WU gets their info from the ATCF files, they probably get it before we do. Why else would it update, and on this particular system we've been watching and the only one models have been saying might develop, tagged as an invest if it was a glitch.
Morning All.

Never thought I would see this today.

Invest 90
Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 22.0 86.0W — Movement: N
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.
Wao.

I gotta run, but u betcha I'll be checking in on this as the day progresses....

You know this site is gonna explode if/when the NHC mentions this in a special tropical weather outlook later today. I'll bet that outlook will get copied & pasted on here like 5 or 10 times...LOL
You something's up as it feels like late May here in C FL with afternoon seabreeze storms expected today and tomorrow.





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
939 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.DISCUSSION...RIDGE AXIS FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXIST OVER THE AREA TODAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
REGION. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA WITH SKY COVER RANGING FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED
WITH A MORE DISTURBED FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE DAY AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE 12Z CAPE SOUNDING INDICATES SUFFICIENT CAPE. WILL HOLD
RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT TODAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
Interesting indeed

I didn't give this a chance the other night to work down before it crosses FL. & Really the mid-level start of this is going to move on over us. But a bit of surface low has worked down & even more interesting how CMC model want to now combine this with the impulse that comes off TX later in the week. That's the seed the gfs has had us raising a eyebrow over what might happen around 2/9-2/10, since like 300+hrs out. Gfs has toned way down bring this low across in the next few days, then follows with the one from TX, which it now forecasts to be much weaker.

I'm leaning more toward the CMC with the wandering low in the gulf. If 90L hits land (maybe Yucatan) & remnants join the next impulse or if 90L gathers then devourers the next impulse before being forced across FL is uncertain.. I'll give it 5% chance to become a TD or STD.
well guys this won't be the fist time we has a FEB TS
thought I kinda wish it could come this way I need some more rain plus can do with some wind it is to dam hot here for a cayman winter or spring and no I don't want it to spite anyone or to do damage I just want a good rain-down and a little wind-sweeping
612. 7544
whoaaaa a feb invest amazing stay tuned will there be speghitti runs coming out where will it head hmmmm ?
28storms.com confirms that we do have 90L.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
28storms.com confirms that we do have 90L.

That's because I told them, lol.

As I said below, I told the entire weather community. :P
Quoting WxGeekVA:


LOOP

This is why you should never put all layers on the satellite loop:
Still nothing at atcf site,but the models came out.


WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

This is why you should never put all layers on the satellite loop:


LOL!!!!
Model runs:

000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Interesting Indeed.

You gotta be joking.

SHIPS is putting it exactly TS strength in 24 hours.

Yeah, yeah models suck on intensity anyway, but is that for real?

What's more, those coordinates for 24 hours are still in the Gulf over water.

BAMM and BAMS have it in the Gulf over water in 36 hours.

February, really?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
000
WHXX01 KWBC 051619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W
BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W
BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W
LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Does 2012 has a new file at atcf?

Link
624. 7544
looks like its going to cross south fla as a ts

very interesting and at 36 hours is this true ?
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's interesting to note that over the past three weeks, there's been a total net gain of Arctic Sea ice area of just 54,998 square kilometers. By comparison, during the same three-week period last year, there was a net gain in Arctic SIA of 1,006,085 km2, while in 2007 that three-week gain was 944,455 km2. There's talk of a new low maximum record this year, but that remains to be seen; to do that, no larger a net gain than an additional 600,000 km2 or so can be added over the next month, and it's still possible for freezing to go on a ten-day (or more) run. (Last year's ice max was on March 9; in 2007, that happened on February 27.)



European chill moves west and 122 die in Ukraine

By Richard Balmforth

KIEV | Sat Feb 4, 2012 7:11pm GMT

(Reuters) - Bitterly cold weather that has claimed hundreds of lives in eastern Europe swept westwards over the continent Saturday, blanketing Rome's Colosseum with snow for the first time in three decades and disrupting air and rail traffic.

Russian gas exporter Gazprom said it was unable to meet increased European demand as it battles its own deep freeze, and had reduced supplies "for a few days" before returning them to normal levels.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Does 2012 has a new file at atcf or is the same as 2011?
AFAIK, the file stays the same year-to-year. The text file we're looking for is:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al9 02012.invest


850 MB vort is stronger than this morning....



And it is stacked with the 700...



Convergence has been better, and so has divergence...



However, shear is still dropping in the area of 90L.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Interesting Indeed.

not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Does 2012 has a new file at atcf?

Link


Not that I am aware of, they have not stored and cleaned up the ATCF directory yet.
Quoting islander101010:
not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.
The NWS doesn't seem to think much of it
Quoting Neapolitan:
AFAIK, the file stays the same year-to-year. The text file we're looking for is:

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al9 02012.invest


Link doesn't work.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Not that I am aware of, they have not stored and cleaned up the ATCF directory yet.


Thanks for the info.
24hr Wind-Wave Forecast shows a low off NW Cuba.


Water temp is 65-70 off Ft Myers, can that support a tropical system?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Link doesn't work.
That's because the file isn't up yet; I said it's the one we're waiting for...
Quoting HRinFM:
Water temp is 65-70 off Ft Myers, can that support a tropical system?


This is from Sean's discussion:

SINCE THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING IS LOWER THAN USUAL...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.

I'm assuming that the same would apply here, and also, this storm is likely to be subtropical so it doesn't need SSTs above 23C.
ok guys give it time they just tagged it lets not worry about forecast yet till 3rd-4th plot and model run when we have a better idea of where it it and where it is heading
636. That is correct. Sub-tropical cyclones, which this would be in its nature, can develop in the kind of SST's presented in the GOMEX, which are well above average due to the virtual lack of winter in the SECONUS.
Quoting islander101010:
not a stalled out front but this could help central fl.



Nice little top off before the dog days of the dry season would be great and make for healthy lawns come May.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:


Cuban radar has been posted folks! Hurricane season has started!
90L in FEB?
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L in FEB?

Yup. May be "Alberto in FEB" soon.
An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P
Quoting Tazmanian:
90L in FEB?

Yes Taz.
Quoting RTSplayer:
You gotta be joking.

SHIPS is putting it exactly TS strength in 24 hours.

Yeah, yeah models suck on intensity anyway, but is that for real?

What's more, those coordinates for 24 hours are still in the Gulf over water.

BAMM and BAMS have it in the Gulf over water in 36 hours.

February, really?


The Groundhogs day tropical storm in February 1952 was similar to this...and hit is south Florida....now I am starting to think this is going to be similar to that storm in some ways...who knows.
Quoting Ameister12:
An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P


From a historical point of view, invests in the winter months are common. It's invests that have model support, like this one, that aren't common. Also they generally occur in the months of March-May...
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?
From the Tropical Weather Discussion:

"THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT"
It feels like August, so it aint a suprise to me that 90L is out there. But lets not forget all the invests and disturbances that formed in a wierd place or time that didnt become a TD or TS. Yet their are some(like Grace in 2009 and TS01 last year in the Mediterranian) that did form, so its very puzzling.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yup. May be "Alberto in FEB" soon.




sweet
Quoting RTSplayer:
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?
This disturbance would still be noted without satellites. That passage has been a busy shipping route for hundreds of years.
Thanks to this nonexistent-winter we could see our first tropical storm in February. If this does become tropical or subtropical, it would be the first storm in February in 60 years!
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Nice little top off before the dog days of the dry season would be great and make for healthy lawns come May.


Hey, PP. You think we'll get some sprinkles from this one?


Here is a link to the 1952 Groundhog day tropical storm caused 65 mph winds in S Fl

Link
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This disturbance would still be noted without satellites. That passage has been a busy shipping route for hundreds of years.

Plus, global warming doesnt make a year or break it. Weve had 8 major hurricanes in 1950 and el ninos and la ninas all over.
I think this is very close to STS Alberto!

Quoting RTSplayer:
So, is it:

A) A 60+ year event that is on schedule?

B) Global Warming?

C) Satellite era bias, detecting what was missed in the past?

ABC+D,D is "another example of weather craziness present especially since 2010"
i wounder if the hurricane huters will fly
90L appears to be NNE at very slowly.
thunderstorm seasons can be really bad around cent fl good thing the bad stuff is over after a hr.
dos 90L have a close low or open low
Alright people, due to this circumstance, IM BACCKKKKK....

90L is not evenly stacked upper divergence-wise or lower convergence-wise, where it should be...
it should be near the Mid-level circulation if it wanted to get organized... its still very disorganized at this time and the limiting factors such as time, pace of development, and it's nature of development(Subtropical, and monsoonal low...)
I'll give it a 20% chance of any kind of development. I've learned from experience the past couple of seasons that the NHC is strict and will only name something if its extremely necessary. 90L won't form, THAT'S RIGHT, Prove me wrong 90L, develop into Alberto... Hit me with your best shot.
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 90L have a close low or open low


Looks closed on sat.
Wow, this is just unreal that we are discussing the tropics.... in the beginning of February. We should be talking snow, LOL. Guess La Nina won't allow us to.
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 90L have a close low or open low

I believe it is close to be closed, if it isn't already, based on surface observations in the area.
I'll bet Grand Master Jeff will have a post up about this before too long....
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I think this is very close to STS Alberto!



History will be made if this happens, wow I still can't believe it.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Alright people, due to this circumstance, IM BACCKKKKK....

90L is not evenly stacked upper divergence-wise or lower convergence-wise, where it should be...
it should be near the Mid-level circulation if it wanted to get organized... its still very disorganized at this time and the limiting factors such as time, pace of development, and it's nature of development(Subtropical, and monsoonal low...)
I'll give it a 20% chance of any kind of development. I've learned from experience the past couple of seasons that the NHC is strict and will only name something if its extremely necessary. 90L won't form, THAT'S RIGHT, Prove me wrong 90L, develop into Alberto... Hit me with your best shot.

Comment #666, how fitting. ;P
Quoting presslord:
I'll bet Grand Master Jeff will have a post up about this before too long....


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.
Quoting Ameister12:
An invest in February!? Yep, it's definitely gonna be another crazy year. :P


Well...I thought so too....but we have to remind ourselves early activity doesn't always mean an active season ahead. For example 1992 had an early subtropical cyclone...but that season produced a below avg # of storms.

Another "party pooper" is that this won't be the 1st time in February if it happens...we had the groundhog's day tropical storm in Feb 1952.
I have a theory on 90L
#1 system relocates into a less sheared environment(to the South near and between 17-20N 84-87W)where it will
#2 develop better then
#3 cold front comes and drags it a bit to the NE then
#4 cold front leaves causing it to meander then
#5 moves N into GOM and weaken then
#6 moves NW and dissipates before hitting Tex or Mex
note I am not putt money on this theory yet so don't make a fool of yourself and complain

other notes on 90L the wind don't really match up with the 1st/current plot so I will wait to see what happens
Quoting tropicfreak:


History will be made if this happens, wow I still can't believe it.

3rd earliest storm
Not counting Alice or Zeta
That's just unreal, a February TS might actually happen.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Looks closed on sat.
its a mid level circulation attempting to burrow down toward the surface, it has a "closed" circulation, you could say. But it's not at a point of developing at least for another 24 hours. Don't get too hopeful, i get were all excited that the tropics are alive for the first time in 2012, but its not something to be counting on to develop.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
its a mid level circulation attempting to burrow down toward the surface, it has a "closed" circulation, you could say. But it's not at a point of developing at least for another 24 hours. Don't get too hopeful, i get were all excited that the tropics are alive for the first time in 2012, but its not something to be counting on to develop.

No, it is low-level, and close to designation I'd say. It's a subtropical cyclone, not tropical.
Quoting Tazmanian:


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.


betcha this causes a change of plans
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Comment #666, how fitting. ;P

Thinking that too. :P
Quoting Tazmanian:


nop

Have a super weekend, everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Well, I do not believe he was expecting an Invest with the potential of Alberto when he wrote that the other day.
I guess everyone has forgotten Jasmine...
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
It feels like August, so it aint a suprise to me that 90L is out there. But lets not forget all the invests and disturbances that formed in a wierd place or time that didnt become a TD or TS. Yet their are some(like Grace in 2009 and TS01 last year in the Mediterranian) that did form, so its very puzzling.


Ahhhh... memories of being on here in the summer.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I guess everyone has forgotten Jasmine...

Get that thing off here! Nobody cares about Jasmine! We have a February invest with a good potential of becoming Alberto! :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Get that thing off here! Nobody cares about Jasmine! We have a February invest with a good potential of becoming Alberto! :P

LOL
687. 7544
levi plz .
Taz it looks open wind don't add up totaly
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it is low-level, and close to designation I'd say. It's a subtropical cyclone, not tropical.

Oh please, dont get your hopes up believing that its something it's not. it's not near organized even for a sub-tropical system... it needs to show th NHC what it's made of to get anywhere near formation...
No formation for this sytem, i don't believe. Not today at least... 90L can prove me wrong tomorrow.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Taz it looks open wind don't add up totaly

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I do not believe he was expecting an Invest with the potential of Alberto when he wrote that the other day.




thats ture
it probably won't amount to much...but I'm fascinated by what allowed it to be...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh please, dont get your hopes up believing that its something it's not. it's not near organized even for a sub-tropical system... it needs to show th NHC what it's made of to get anywhere near formation...
No formation for this sytem, i don't believe. Not today at least... 90L can prove me wrong tomorrow.

It wouldn't have been mentioned in the TWD and/or be declared an invest if it didn't have a real chance of becoming something.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
22.36N85.88W
696. 7544
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wouldn't have been mentioned in the TWD and/or be declared an invest if it didn't have a real chance of becoming something.


yeap
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it is low-level, and close to designation I'd say. It's a subtropical cyclone, not tropical.


You are supported by 850Mb analysis, it is at the surface now.

OK, this is officially nuts. We've got the first Super Sunday Invest in history. You'd think I could have a nice quiet Super Sunday not thinking about blogging about something in the tropics, but NOOOO! I'll be interested to see the SHIPS model forecast when it comes out in another hour or so. 90L likely doesn't have time to develop into a named storm, but definitely has the potential get more organized. Shear is 20 - 25 knots, and both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the shear below 25 knots through Monday. There is a historical precedent, as some here have pointed out, with the the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters
I'm not saying it will develop, but I'm saying it has a much better chance than you are making it out to be, HurricaneDean07.
Everyone CALM DOWN and drink a nice cold Fresca...

702. 7544
yes thanks jeff enjoy the super bowl
Quoting JeffMasters:
OK, this is officially nuts.
Yep. That statement pretty much sums up the state of things, I'd say...
Quoting JeffMasters:
OK, this is officially nuts. We've got the first Super Sunday Invest in history. You'd think I could have a nice quiet Super Sunday not thinking about blogging about something in the tropics, but NOOOO! I'll be interested to see the SHIPS model forecast when it comes out in another hour or so. 90L likely doesn't have time to develop into a named storm, but definitely has the potential get more organized. Shear is 20 - 25 knots, and both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the shear below 25 knots through Monday. There is a historical precedent, as some here have pointed out, with the the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W
BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W
BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W
LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It wouldn't have been mentioned in the TWD and/or be declared an invest if it didn't have a real chance of becoming something.

Yes it has a CHANCE to form, but the NHC designates Invests during the winter/spring quite a bit...
2011: march we had 90L
April 91L and 92L
May 93L and 94L

yes its very cool that we have a february invest, but its has about the same chance or a little more of a chance as last year's pre-season invests.
like i said: 20-25% Chance of Formation
Shallow 6.0 magnitude earthquake strikes Vanuatu
Posted on February 5, 2012
February 5, 2012 – VANUATU – A 6.0 earthquake struck the South Pacific region of Vanuatu 16:40 UTC, in what has turned out to be the third major earthquake to strike this turbulent tectonic plate boundary since a 7.1 magnitude earthquake hit 3 days ago. Today’s earthquake was very shallow, measuring 4.3 km (2.7 miles) beneath the ocean floor. No tsunami warnings were issued.


Phivolcs quells panic about 5.9 Philippine earthquake setting off volcanic chain, after 70 aftershocks rattle sea-floor
Posted on February 5, 2012
February 5, 2012 – MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) denied under water volcanoes caused the series of earthquakes in the Eastern Visayas starting Saturday night. This, as Phivolcs Director Renato Solidum Jr. pacified fears that volcanoes there would erupt anytime soon. Text messages started spreading last night that an underwater volcano is on the verge of erupting. This will supposedly cause a large tsunami. Local radio stations have already denied the information. Authorities there also said the information is untrue. A total of 70 aftershocks were recorded in the area ever since a magnitude 5.9 was recorded in the southeastern part of San Policarpio in Eastern Samar. Solidum told ABS-CBNnews.com that the cause of the earthquake was due to subduction. According to the US Geological Survey, subduction is the process of the oceanic lithosphere colliding with and descending beneath the continental lithosphere. No casualties have been recorded so far. – with a report from Geron Ponferra, ABS-CBN News Eastern Visayas. -ABS
Quoting JeffMasters:
OK, this is officially nuts. We've got the first Super Sunday Invest in history. You'd think I could have a nice quiet Super Sunday not thinking about blogging about something in the tropics, but NOOOO! I'll be interested to see the SHIPS model forecast when it comes out in another hour or so. 90L likely doesn't have time to develop into a named storm, but definitely has the potential get more organized. Shear is 20 - 25 knots, and both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the shear below 25 knots through Monday. There is a historical precedent, as some here have pointed out, with the the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters


Good insight Dr. Masters, I am thinking almost exactly the same. Maybe it will be classified in postseason analysis.
All we need is some winds from the west on the southern side...ASCAT does not show a closed LLC.



Partial pass

But of course, this is excluding the center to the NW

Quoting JeffMasters:
OK, this is officially nuts. We've got the first Super Sunday Invest in history. You'd think I could have a nice quiet Super Sunday not thinking about blogging about something in the tropics, but NOOOO! I'll be interested to see the SHIPS model forecast when it comes out in another hour or so. 90L likely doesn't have time to develop into a named storm, but definitely has the potential get more organized. Shear is 20 - 25 knots, and both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the shear below 25 knots through Monday. There is a historical precedent, as some here have pointed out, with the the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters
wacky 2012 just like ya called it about a month ago and its to get a whole lot wackier yet
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Good insight Dr. Masters, I am thinking almost exactly the same. Maybe it will be classified in postseason analysis.

Haha, it is weird to be talking about post-season, when the season hasn't even begun yet. XD
Quoting SPLbeater:
All we need is some winds from the west on the southern side...ASCAT does not show a closed LLC.



Partial pass




Well, that ASCAT pass completely missed what is being called the center. :P
Quoting SPLbeater:
All we need is some winds from the west on the southern side...ASCAT does not show a closed LLC.



Partial pass



Well, Invest 90L doesn't even appear on that pass, so.... :P
Quoting SPLbeater:
All we need is some winds from the west on the southern side...ASCAT does not show a closed LLC.



Partial pass


This is completely the wrong area
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Haha, it is weird to be talking about post-season, when the season hasn't even begun yet. XD


Is this postseason from 2011, preseason for 2012, or regular season 2012? I'm clueless on which one it could be...
701 WxGeekVA "Everyone CALM DOWN and drink a nice cold Fresca..."

Then have a Twinkie afterward.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Is this postseason from 2011, preseason for 2012, or regular season 2012? I'm clueless on which one it could be...

You are talking about post-season 2012, and I was talking about regular season 2012.
Quoting yqt1001:


Well, that ASCAT pass completely missed what is being called the center. :P

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, Invest 90L doesn't even appear on that pass, so.... :P

yes but the enviroment would need to be following the same wind pattern around it to have any kind of evident and good circulation... That, or just shows how the ne shear is affecting the enviroment...
718. JRRP
90L ???
jajajaja nice
Quoting aspectre:
701 WxGeekVA "Everyone CALM DOWN and drink a nice cold Fresca..."

Then have a Twinkie afterward.

I love that commercial, LOL.
Quoting yqt1001:


Well, that ASCAT pass completely missed what is being called the center. :P
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
This is completely the wrong area
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, Invest 90L doesn't even appear on that pass, so.... :P


And if you read the edit you will see that i noted that before you start pointing fingers


90L in Feb, this could be a weird Season this year!
Quoting aspectre:
701 WxGeekVA "Everyone CALM DOWN and drink a nice cold Fresca..."

Then have a Twinkie afterward.


LOL!!!
Quoting JeffMasters:
OK, this is officially nuts. We've got the first Super Sunday Invest in history. You'd think I could have a nice quiet Super Sunday not thinking about blogging about something in the tropics, but NOOOO! I'll be interested to see the SHIPS model forecast when it comes out in another hour or so. 90L likely doesn't have time to develop into a named storm, but definitely has the potential get more organized. Shear is 20 - 25 knots, and both the GFS and ECMWF models keep the shear below 25 knots through Monday. There is a historical precedent, as some here have pointed out, with the the 1952 Groundhog's Day tropical storm that hit Southwest Florida. According to Wikipedia,

The 1952 Groundhog Day Storm was the only Atlantic tropical cyclone on record in the month of February. First observed in the western Caribbean Sea on February 2, it moved rapidly throughout its duration and struck southwestern Florida within 24 hours of forming. In the state, the winds damaged some crops and power lines, but no serious damage was reported.

Jeff Masters


Can't you make Angela carry some of the water on this?!?!


Nice vorticity
Depending on what 90L brings to the table tomorrow, i might take my 20% chance, and raise it to 30% chance.


I think this is 2 hours old but as of then there is still no surface circulation...
90L is now up on the Navy site:

Link

I'd give the system a 40-50% chance of developing into a subtropical or tropical cyclone before crossing Florida.
I have to say, even though 90L isn't all that impressive... It is February, and the 850 MB Vorticity is actually relatively IMPRESSIVE... though vorticity isn't all it takes for a storm to form.
LOL I love it

Link
This satellite loop, to me, explains the situation.

90L isn't just some super-disorganized pre-season system like we had last year. While it is still disorganized, and development is still slim, it is probably one of the most well organized pre-season invests I've seen in the last few years with a good chance of further development. Rotation becoming more evident with building and sustaining convection over the developing LLC.

Link
NEW CIMSS analysis out...

850MB:



Improved...

700MB:



About the same.

500MB:



Slightly stronger, but still disorganized and elongated from NNE-SSW.

Shear:



The shear over the area where a LLC would be located is now only 20 kts, which is better than this morning.

Checked recon.. got all excited to see some sort of non-tasked training mission going on..it's not 90L. They are flying that storm south of Greenland. They found 962mb at the center, highest surface winds so far..62kts (71mph).
TAFB 48 hr surface forecast shows low attached to a front, won't be designated IF that is true.


Sun has discharged outbursts toward earth the past few weeks, numerous earthquakes around the globe have been happening, and now a tropical entity in the Carribbean in early Feb. Sun is magical
Quoting Neapolitan:
90L is now up on the Navy site:

Link



Hurrah! Sanity makes a comeback...its really official...90L is real! Meanwhile...I am still waiting for the NHC to issue a special TWO...
736. Srry, WRONG QUOTE... OOPSS
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite loop, to me, explains the situation.

90L isn't just some super-disorganized pre-season system like we had last year. While it is still disorganized, and development is still slim, it is probably one of the most well organized pre-season invests I've seen in the last few years with a good chance of further development. Rotation becoming more evident with building and sustaining convection over the developing LLC.

Link

*sheds tear* that was beautifully said... You're giving it a 50% chance of developing aren't you?
Where's hydrus?!?!?! he saw her first...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

*sheds tear* that was beautifully said... You're giving it a 50% chance of developing aren't you?



30%, in my opinion. Given the rarity of pre-season systems, and even more unlikely for a February system.
I think we may have something.

I'll be back later tonight(if the Super bowl ends up Being a bust), or Tomorrow morning(EARLY)
Where's the Reed models, he usually be telling us that Florida should be taking precautions right now
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I think we may have something.



Indeed. I will be monitoring this situation closely. At least, it's a good early season warm up.
Good afternoon.

I never ever thought I would be on this site watching an Invest during the first week of February. Worlwide the weather has been crazy with snow in Rome for the first time in 26 years and a significant snowfall deficit across much of the US.

90L is over sea surface temps of about 80F which would permit some tropical or sub tropical development to get going but temps fall of quite quickly to the N of the Yucatan channel.

Regardless of what happens, if anything, it is a strange start to 2012 weather wise.

So far today we have received about .6 of an inch of rain on the SW coast of Grand Cayman and probably more in other locations. The rain is much appreciated as our "winter" so far has been very dry and temps much higher than last year on average.
Quoting CybrTeddy:



30%, in my opinion. Given the rarity of pre-season systems, and even more unlikely for a February system.

im saying 20%, for about the same reasons... I just don't see it miraculously pulling rapid organization and being named Alberto. The nhc just doesn't give a Preseason storm a name...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

im saying 20%, for about the same reasons... I just don't see it miraculously pulling rapid organization and being named Alberto. The nhc just doesn't give a Preseason storm a name...


I say 50%, for reasons of a LLC under formation (if not formed already), the not incredibly hostile conditions, and the fact that it has been building convection and organizing banding all afternoon.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I think we may have something.


Becoming more organized every hour.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
22.6n84.68w
I'm out for now....
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

im saying 20%, for about the same reasons... I just don't see it miraculously pulling rapid organization and being named Alberto. The nhc just doesn't give a Preseason storm a name...
They give it to Ana in April 2003
.76 inches of rain actually today so far.

Winds are light ( 3 mph ) out of the South which is suggestive of a weak surface low to our NW, perhaps in association with 90L.
Interesting...Who'd a thunk it?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This satellite loop, to me, explains the situation.

90L isn't just some super-disorganized pre-season system like we had last year. While it is still disorganized, and development is still slim, it is probably one of the most well organized pre-season invests I've seen in the last few years with a good chance of further development. Rotation becoming more evident with building and sustaining convection over the developing LLC.

Link


What do you mean?...last year's pre-season Invest 91L was more organized than this per Figure 2 of this old post....

There were also handsomely organized pre-season Invests 92L...93L....and 94L last year that did not get declared.

You are right though....this is still an impressively organized Invest (persistent convection over center & organizing bands showing up). What is extremly remarkable to me is its occurence in February.
Surface obs in Cancun and Western Cuba are indicating the possibility of a closed surface low.
Quoting SPLbeater:
All we need is some winds from the west on the southern side...ASCAT does not show a closed LLC.



Partial pass

But of course, this is excluding the center to the NW



that if the center is to the NW or it could be just N of Hon its still too early to tell
at this point in time the invest is about 3 months ahead of normal
Even thunder here now, another rarity for this time of year LOL
I often don't see storms this organised in June. Amazing. Goes to show this warm winter will have a big impact on the tropical season this year.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Surface obs in Cancun and Western Cuba are indicating the possibility of a closed surface low.

I concur.
Quoting kmanislander:
.76 inches of rain actually today so far.

Winds are light ( 3 mph ) out of the South which is suggestive of a weak surface low to our NW, perhaps in association with 90L.

I would say W umm is that a constant S wind and let us keep an eye out on the wind and how this turns out
90L is organizing fast..
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Surface obs in Cancun and Western Cuba are indicating the possibility of a closed surface low.
sat presentation indicats that it is closed off or about too time for a new blog doc
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I would say W umm is that a constant S wind and let us keep an eye out on the wind and how this turns out


Still dead on due S at 3. Pressure of 1012.7 and falling
Quoting Skyepony:
90L is organizing fast..


Has that classic developing subtropical system look.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It has that look...
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us


Sure looks like a tropical storm....
That's closed.

End of story.



ZOOM

Quoting Skyepony:
90L is organizing fast..


It is certainly starting to take on the "comma" appearance and motion seems limited which may give it enough time to wrap up some more before heading over SST of about 72F to the N of W Cuba in the GOM. More likely a sub tropical feature if anything.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's closed.

End of story.



ZOOM


He really wants a name...
Hey kman glad to see you survived the Taste of Cayman.

This season shall keep us on our toes for sure.
All surface observations throughout the region as well as visible satellite imagery support a closed, albeit rather tight surface circulation in association with Invest 90L. Given the confined nature of the system and the strongest winds close to the surface circulation and with no frontal properties, this is a tropical entity at this time. Regardless of further development, South and parts of Central Florida can expect some much needed soaking rainfall and gusty winds later today through early Tuesday.
cause a lot of other stations say NNE-NE
Looks like TD status is practically a given now?

Amazing.

NHC will probably wait 6 to 12 before giving it TD status. That is, unless it really blows up right away.
Quoting splash3392:
Hey kman glad to see you survived the Taste of Cayman.

This season shall keep us on our toes for sure.


LOL, I survived because I skipped it this year !. Two years ago I went at 7 and the food was finished so decided that was enough for me.

As to whether 90L is a signal of how the season will be there has been little corrolation between an off season threat like this or even an early start in May with how active things may turn out but anytime world weather goes wacky, like this year,who knows.
XX/INV/90L
MARK
22.6n84.68w
Quoting RitaEvac:
Where's the Reed models, he usually be telling us that Florida should be taking precautions right now
we are waiting to see them
Some serious lightning right over my home so out for now.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like TD status is practically a given now?

Amazing.

NHC will probably wait 6 to 12 before giving it TD status. That is, unless it really blows up right away.


NHC doesn't have a special TWO out for it yet, so no classification seems likely until they slowly go up the scale of percentages. Also, since its close to land they will send recon in to verify that it has cyclonic characteristics.
note also shear is dropping south of the initial COC in the area near 19-20N 83-86W also steering is very weak and is going all over the place
SSTs look good



Shear on the decrease



Dry air prevalent on the SW side trying to wrap into the core.



By the way how is everybody doing today?
Quoting yqt1001:


NHC doesn't have a special TWO out for it yet, so no classification seems likely until they slowly go up the scale of percentages. Also, since its close to land they will send recon in to verify that it has cyclonic characteristics.

With Tropical Storm Bret, they went from 30% one outlook to classification the next.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

With Tropical Storm Bret, they went from 30% one outlook to classification the next.


With recon confirmation, they wouldn't do that with Dvorak estimates.
The dry air rapping into the core will legitimize this as a sub-tropical cyclone, that with the cool SSTs.
Only thing that I haven't seen much about yet, is do the wind speeds meet the criteria for classification?
Quoting RTSplayer:
Looks like TD status is practically a given now?

Amazing.

NHC will probably wait 6 to 12 before giving it TD status. That is, unless it really blows up right away.


It's a very shallow system right now. Wind shear and zonal shear are going to pickup over the next 18 hours...very limited window...if it stays shallow, could make STS...fairly low chance though
Quoting kmanislander:
At least we are getting some much needed rain. Thunder is rolling. Good thing you skipped T.O.C. this year LOL.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That's closed.

End of story.



ZOOM



OMG!!!! Are those surface wind barbs for real? Man...this is a rapidly developing situation indeed...
On NRL

Quoting CybrTeddy:
The dry air rapping into the core will legitimize this as a sub-tropical cyclone, that with the cool SSTs.


SST's are 27C in the area
GFS and ECMWF barely show anything from this system...NOGAPS appears most aggressive, with some weak development. This 90L might not make it....maybe, but maybe not...
Quoting Bergeron:


It's a very shallow system right now. Wind shear and zonal shear are going to pickup over the next 18 hours...very limited window...if it stays shallow, could make STS...fairly low chance though

Wind shear is going to stay low...Go back and read Dr. Masters' post below.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear is going to stay low...Go back and read Dr. Masters' post below.


Not hardly

Quoting WxGeekVA:
Only thing that I haven't seen much about yet, is do the wind speeds meet the criteria for classification?


ASCAT showed 10-20 knots on southeast, east side. 20 knots on N side. So not good enough, even if it was closed.

:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Only thing that I haven't seen much about yet, is do the wind speeds meet the criteria for classification?

It was initialized with winds of 30 mph.
Quoting Bergeron:


It's a very shallow system right now. Wind shear and zonal shear are going to pickup over the next 18 hours...very limited window...if it stays shallow, could make STS...fairly low chance though




As the above map shows, shear has actually been decreasing over the past few hours.
Quoting Bergeron:


Not hardly


25 knots and decreasing.

Quoting WxGeekVA:




As the above map shows, shear has actually been decreasing over the past few hours.


I know that...I said picking up in 18 Hours
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Link

You cannot link animations from there. I do not know why.

Levi uses a script to animate those images and post them here, but I do not know any other way.

"This script should be referenced with a METHOD of POST. If you don't understand this, see this forms overview."
Quoting SPLbeater:
GFS and ECMWF barely show anything from this system...NOGAPS appears most aggressive, with some weak development. This 90L might not make it....maybe, but maybe not...


The models may not be well-initialized with this system. Sometimes current satellite observations are better than the models...& by golly 90L just keeps getting better organized and fast....
ok I am leaving and I'll be back in about 2-3hours to see what has changed with 90L
From the NHC 2PM EDT discussion!!!!

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING
FROM 27N90W ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
05/1500 UTC EXTENDS FROM 27N87W 23N87W THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W GENERATING SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 23N E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND
W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HAITI THROUGH THE W ATLC
TO OVER NE FLORIDA. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL
MOISTURE N OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N E OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS AREA IS
BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.


Unbelievable!!!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


The models may not be well-initialized with this system. Sometimes current satellite observations are better than the models...& by golly 90L just keeps getting better organized and fast....
I think the models are still on vacation in the Caribbean slurping on their pineapple martinis.
Keep this in mind when considering the computer model runs. Invest 90L was just initialized within the past couple hours and the data associated with the system has not entered through the various computer models except the BAM suite. So with that being said, we will get a better idea as to how the computer models handle the situation later this evening and overnight.
key west radar shows a significant shower area
NHC MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION


AS FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISTURBANCE...SRN STREAM NEGATIVE
TILT S/W SHIFTING E-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY
HAS MOVED OVER LLVL TROFFING IN SAME LOCATION...WITH VIGOROUS
MID LEVEL TURNING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST OFF W TIP OF
CUBA. IR AND VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST LLVL TURNING AND CLOUD LINES
FROM SW TO NE OFF E COAST OF YUCATAN...WITH AN 1800 UTC SHIP OB
OF SE WINDS AT 20 KT DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH APPARENT CYCLONIC
TURNING. FURTHER INSPECTION OF VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A MESO LOW NEAR
23N87W...WHERE WE HAVE PUT A LOW ON SFC MAP...AND ANOTHER LOW OR
TWO ALONG A CONVERGENCE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING NE THEN
E-NE ACROSS THE STRAITS AND TO THE KEYS. MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL MOVE NE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ACROSS S FL MON AND MON
EVENING AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO MORE LAMINAR FLOW ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT SOME SFC DEVELOPMENT PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND IT
APPEARS OBVIOUS THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL VORTEX WILL MOVE ACROSS
S FL MON AND MON NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND CONVECTION
SHIFTING NE ACROSS E SEMICIRCLE. WHETHER OR NOT A SFC LOW IS
REALIZED REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MORE THAN 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT IN A SMALL ZONE
ACROSS N AND NW QUAD OF ANY LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
SUPPORT. SOME LINGERING TROFFING LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THROUGH WED. AT THIS TIME...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE MAIN CONCERNS.
Miami NWS

Excerpt:

WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WITH
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SUBTROPICAL VORT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION WILL TAKE
PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MERGES WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION. TRAINING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED NEAR KEY WEST...AND THIS ENTIRE
AREA WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think the models are still on vacation in the Caribbean slurping on their pineapple martinis.


You know...I bet the main media (like the weather channel...the "hurricane authority") is asleep at the switch with this one. We don't need them anyway....

KmanIslander...you can be like Jim Cantore reporting live....I'll get the ominous storm alert music from the weather channel....LOL....
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


You know...I bet the main media (like the weather channel...the "hurricane authority") is asleep at the switch with this one. We don't need them anyway....

KmanIslander...you can be like Jim Cantore reporting live....I'll get the ominous storm alert music from the weather channel....LOL....


ya we certainly dont need a bunch of media hype, with a system that doesnt have a sure future. this thing could develop, or it could organize some more, and fall apart.

I bet if it did develop into ALberto, they would have people down in Key West, Cancun n such lol
Quick and dirty blog update on 90L. First of the year. Enjoy.
Incredible and rare Invest 90L in the Yucatan Straight - 2/5/12

Jasmine...
Official analysis for the first time has a surface low pressure center marked on the surface trough...per the latest North America HPC analysis:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

The 1013 mb low pressure center is much further NW than where satellite imagery suggests it should be. Perhaps the low pressure center is located beneath the divergence maximum of the associated upper trough...and this divergence maximum is not coincident with the deepest convection....
Still,despite being at NRL and having first tropical model plots at 12z after four hours ,there is still nothing at the atcf site about 90L.
Interesting buoy observation south of the center:

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SW (230°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (99°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 79.9 F
Overcast in Nassau.
Had rain earlier. wish it kept raining -.-
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Still,despite being at NRL and having first tropical model plots at 12z after four hours ,there is still nothing at the atcf site about 90L.
Quoting islander101010:
key west radar shows a significant shower area


Quoting MississippiWx:
Interesting buoy observation south of the center:

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.802N 84.857W
Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2012 18:50:00 UTC
Winds: SW (230°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (99°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.7 F
Water Temperature: 79.9 F


That buoy coordinate is well southeast of the 1013 mb center referenced in post 822...so the SW wind direction makes sense. The wind gusts, wave height, and pressure falls send chills up and down my spine!
Tomorrow we will have
A. Alberto
B. TD1
C. 90L
D. 90L Gone
E. Something else
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Tomorrow we will have
A. Alberto
B. TD1
C. 90L
D. 90L Gone
E. Something else

60% C., 40% B.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

60% C., 40% B.

Thanks
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Tomorrow we will have
A. Alberto
B. TD1
C. 90L
D. 90L Gone
E. Something else


C....Invest 90L
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You are talking about post-season 2012, and I was talking about regular season 2012.


Not even gonna reach hurricane strength. This season's a bust.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm not saying it will develop, but I'm saying it has a much better chance than you are making it out to be, HurricaneDean07.


And you base this upon your many years of tropical weather observation?
THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS S
FLORIDA TONIGHT BEING ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA MON AND
DISSIPATE ON TUE.

Quoting sunlinepr:


90L is looking a "Little Loopy" and looks to bring some more rain to Florida.