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Europe braces for destructive weekend winter storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on February 24, 2010

A large but disorganized extratropical storm located over the middle-Atlantic Ocean is expected to move rapidly eastwards towards Spain over the next two days. As the storm approaches Spain on Friday, it is expected to tap into a cold polar airmass to its north and rapidly intensify into a meteorological "bomb"--a mighty winter cyclone with hurricane force winds. Though sea surface temperatures off the coast of Spain are about 1°C below average, the waters of 12 - 16°C will provide plenty of moisture and energy to the powerful storm, which may end up rivaling last year's Winter Storm Klaus in intensity. Klaus, which hit northern Spain and southwest France January 23 - 25, was Earth's most costly natural disaster of 2009, causing $5.1 billion in damage and killing 26. Klaus peaked in intensity at 967 mb, and brought wind gusts of 120 mph (193 km/hr) to Formiguères, France, 125 mph (200 km/hr) to Portbou, Spain, and 134 mph (216 km/hr) to Port d'Envalira, Andorra.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Atlantic at 8am EST Wednesday, February 24, 2010. A developing extratropical cyclone over the middle Atlantic threatens to bring hurricane-force wind gusts to Spain and Portugal on Saturday. Meanwhile, a snowstorm over the New England is dumping heavy snows there. Image credit: NASA GSFC GOES project.

This Saturday's storm is expected to follow a track very similar to Klaus, reaching maximum intensity at 18 GMT Saturday as it passes just north of Spain and Portugal (Figure 2). If the storm tracks near or over the northwest corner of Spain as most of the models are predicting, the cyclone's powerful cold front will likely bring sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph with damaging hurricane-force wind gusts and flooding rains to northern Spain and Portugal. The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). The latest 06Z run of the Navy NOGAPS model is more aggressive, deepening the storm into a 948 mb monster that misses Spain by several hundred miles, but comes ashore over Ireland Sunday morning with a pressure of 956 mb. This is a central pressure typically found in Category 2 hurricanes! (Note, though, that extratropical systems generally do not generate winds as strong as a hurricane with a similar central pressure, since extratropical storms do not form an eyewall with extreme winds like a hurricane does). The NOGAPS is currently an outlier, though, and the other models such as the ECMWF, Canadian, and UKMET do not foresee the storm getting that intense. Even so, this weekend's storm has the potential to be a multi-billion dollar weather disaster for Europe.




Figure 2. Forecast from the 1am EST 2/24/10 run of the GFS model for 18 GMT Saturday for mean sea level pressure and 6-hour precipitation (top) and surface winds (bottom). The GFS is predicting that Saturday's storm will peak in intensity at this time with a pressure below 968 mb. Sustained winds of 70 - 75 mph (yellow green colors in bottom plot) are expected just offshore of Portugal. Images generated using our wundermap for Spain with the "model" layer turned on.

The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Next post
My next post will be Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters
Tons
Tons
Stormy weather in Porto, Portugal. Actually all north coast of Portugal is on the alert. Tons of water in this wave.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Doc...
Thanks Dr.
Thanks, Doc.

"The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). "

Question: Doesn't the GFS have the same under-intensity bias with central pressure and peak winds for extra-tropical systems as it does tropical systems, though probably less so? (due to the spatial resolution, primarily)
Always worth reading the good Doctor's blog.
Does anyone have a long range (April) forecast for Europe?
I think this article on BBC is relevant:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8534052.stm
The NWS WFO-issued hurricane local statement is changing a little in format for this upcoming season.

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 10-12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
920 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK -NOAAPORT
-OTHER NWS PARTNERS AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH CHIEF

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FORMAT: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2010

BEGINNING MAY 15 2010...IN RESPONSE TO USER COMMENTS RECEIVED IN THE 2009 HURRICANE SEASON...CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT /HLS/ PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS FORECAST OFFICES /WFO/S. NWS WILL RETAIN THE FORMAT OF THE HLS ADOPTED IN 2009...WITH AN OVERVIEW BLOCK FOLLOWED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH/WARNING VALID TIME EVENT CODE /VTEC/ SEGMENTS

THE CHANGES FOR 2010 ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE ORDERED IN THE OVERVIEW BLOCK...PRIMARILY BY HAZARD TYPE AND SECONDARILY BY RELATIVE LOCATION...AS FOLLOWS:

HURRICANE WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES
HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR INLAND ZONES
HURRICANE WARNING FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING AND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARINE ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR COASTAL ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR INLAND ZONES
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARINE ZONES

2. THE SECTION HEADLINES WITHIN THE MARINE ZONE SEGMENTS CHANGE AS FOLLOWS:

THE /MARINE/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL NO LONGER BE USED.
THE /WINDS/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL CHANGE TO /WINDS AND SEAS/.
THE /TORNADOES/ SECTION HEADLINE WILL CHANGE TO /TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS/.

A SUMMARY OF THE HLS FORMAT FOR 2010 AND AN HLS EXAMPLE IS PROVIDED ON LINE AT:
http://www.weather.gov/os/hurricane/resources/hls.pdf
Quoting ycd0108:
Always worth reading the good Doctor's blog.
Does anyone have a long range (April) forecast for Europe?
I think this article on BBC is relevant:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8534052.stm

We should be doing so much more to make sure our garbage doesn't end up in the water...and all water leads to the ocean. No excuse for plastic to be collecting in a gyre in the oceans...none.
Thanks, Doc! Going to be a bad weekend in Europe
Cell with some rotation headed toward Sebastian, FL. Those many times don't play well near the ocean..
10. OGal
Wow, Skye, you are so right. What a strange day we are having. Hope the folks in Sebastian are paying attention.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Thanks, Doc.

"The latest 06Z (1am EST) run of the GFS model predicts that this weekend's storm will bottom out at a pressure of 968 mb, about the same minimum pressure achieved by last year's destructive Winter Storm Klaus (967 mb). "

Question: Doesn't the GFS have the under-intensity bias with central pressure and peak winds for extra-tropical systems as it does tropical systems, though probably less so? (due to the spatial resolution, primarily)


Answer: That depends.

OGal and Skye,
Could be a good day for waterspouts in the Bahamas also.
Quoting Grothar:


Answer: That depends.

Of course it does depend on the size of the system...as related to spatial resolution of the model, anyway. The smallest systems are the worst to look to GFS for a good forecast of intensity. Synoptic scale trough? GFS is perfectly suited for that.

We are somewhere in the middle with this one.
Good morning all.

If anyone is interested, I have finished my 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook and posted it on my blog. This includes the analog years we have been discussing.

Feel free to leave comments, criticism, or questions.
I oppose the politicization of GW.

However, I believe in the following:

*Our planet's oceans should not be used as dumping grounds.

*Our oceans should not be over-fished.

*We should do what we can not to pollute our air or fresh water supplies...short of politicization of GW. Instead, let's re-examine the regulations in place, ensure compliance, and develop new technologies to help preserve critical resources like air and water.
Quoting StormW:
SST Anomalies from yesterday. Getting even warmer close to the African coast.


That's bad or very bad right?
Quoting CycloneOz:
I oppose the politicization of GW.

However, I believe in the following:

*Our planet's oceans should not be used as dumping grounds.

*Our oceans should not be over-fished.

*We should do what we can not to pollute our air or fresh water supplies...short of politicization of GW. Instead, let's re-examine the regulations in place, ensure compliance, and develop new technologies to help preserve critical resources like air and water.

I stand behind you with a cold can of beer in hand and whole heartily agree with you.
Thanks Dr. and Good Morning Folks......Pretty "messy" Winter weather out there this season for parts of the US and now the storm headed towards Spain. Can't wait to see what the severe weather season brings for the US in Spring and H-season later on down the road.........Very active start to the year, worldwide, in terms of weather and natural disasters so far........Ouch
The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Don't you mean a powerful Low pressure System?
Levi32 nice page big A+
Quoting AussieStorm:
The winter storm-fest continues for the U.S.
This winter's relentless winter storm-fest over the U.S. continues this week, with a powerful cyclone over the Northeast U.S. expected to bring 2 - 3 feet of snow to the mountains of New Hampshire and Vermont. The storm is wrapping in too much warm air to bring heavy snow to the major cities along the coast, where most of the precipitation will fall as rain. Next Tuesday, a powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy rains to Florida, with the possibility of snow falling in northern Georgia and surrounding regions.

Don't you mean a powerful Low pressure System?


Low pressure systems can all be called cyclones. If you think he called it a hurricane by mistake, hurricanes or typhoons are technically called "tropical cyclones". I know the southern hemisphere where you live calls them just "cyclones" which makes it confusing, but the term "cyclone" can refer to any rotating storm, tropical or extratropical.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Of course it does depend on the size of the system...as related to spatial resolution of the model, anyway. The smallest systems are the worst to look to GFS for a good forecast of intensity. Synoptic scale trough? GFS is perfectly suited for that.

We are somewhere in the middle with this one.


I know you will reall enjoy this link. Funny, but I was reading it last night. True!! Enjoy!!

Link
Quoting xcool:
Levi32 nice page big A+


Thanks xcool :)
Levi32 ANYTIME
Widespread flooding for NT, Australia


A monsoon trough and low are causing flooding over parts of the Northern Territory and it's likely to become widespread as the monsoon deepens.

Some areas near the Top End coast have had 70-to-120mm of rain in the last few days. Nhulunbuy has picked up 130mm, their highest two-day total in 14 months.

Moisture from the monsoon is filtering south where levels are already quite high.

Alice Springs was hit by a large storm on Wednesday afternoon due to another trough, bringing a month of rain in less than two hours. The town's airport ended up with 61mm in about three hours, its heaviest downpour in nine years, which led to flash flooding.

More flooding is possible in the Alice Springs district and it may become serious if the monsoon low takes its projected path to the south. Some computer models are indicating hundreds of millimetres over the region by mid-next week, which could be devastating.

Widespread falls of 100-to-200mm are likely over nearly all of the territory by this time next week due to a monsoon, which has been largely inactive so far this month.

Alice Springs may be the wettest place in the territory by the end of the month, bringing the Todd River to life.

- Weatherzone
Desert deluge: wettest February day in years


Alice Springs has recorded its wettest day in nine years, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

Forecaster Mark Kersemakers says 61 millimetres fell at the Alice Springs airport yesterday - the most since January 2001.

He says the town's average monthly rainfall for February is 41 millimetres.

"We're expecting this showery, stormy weather to continue for the rest of this week down there," he said.

"We could even have some heavier, more widespread rain across Central Australia during the weekend or later in the weekend and early next week.

"If this comes off, which is looking more and more likely, we're talking falls over 100 millimetres.

- ABC
Quoting Levi32:


Low pressure systems can all be called cyclones. If you think he called it a hurricane by mistake, hurricanes or typhoons are technically called "tropical cyclones". I know the southern hemisphere where you live calls them just "cyclones" which makes it confusing, but the term "cyclone" can refer to any rotating storm, tropical or extratropical.


Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.


Lol, Aussie's awesome :) I'm just trying to clear that up for him.
Quoting xcool:
Levi32 nice page big A+


Ditto on that......Very good analysis of the current indicators and trends. So far Dr. M, Bastardi,Storm, Yourself and several others on the Blog have all indicated an active season coming up. No one knows what the actual number will be but I can see NHC and Gray & Company coming out with a range in the ballpark of 12-17 named storms with their initial forecasts later this year if these current trends continue.
Levi32, very informative page you have there. Would saying 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 Major's be out of line for ATL. I seriously have a bad feeling about the ATL and the WPAC this year.
Quoting Grothar:


I know you will reall enjoy this link. Funny, but I was reading it last night. True!! Enjoy!!

Link

Thank you for sharing that. (WTH were you on last night?)
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, don't be too hard on Aussie. He is a great guy. You'll turn his whole world "upside down". How you doing Aussie? Long time no talk.

I just found it confusing how the Doc called it a "cyclone" then referred to another as a "strong Low Pressure System" I know they both mean the same thing but consistency should be kept. I am doing well, Had a major Anniversary the other day which was a very somber day.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Levi32, very informative page you have there. Would saying 20 storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 Major's be out of line for ATL. I seriously have a bad feeling about the ATL and the WPAC this year.


It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.
Preparation is KEY in any Cane Season,.take the grace of time and prepare now for the Upcoming 2010 Cane season.

2010 Hurricane Prep Entry
Quoting Patrap:




Cue the theme from Jaws...
Quoting Patrap:
Preparation is KEY in any Cane Season,.take the grace of time and prepare now for the Upcoming 2010 Cane season.

2010 Hurricane Prep Entry


Amen, Pat. It doesn't matter how slow 2009 was... 2010 is a whole new year and it's just as important to have a plan now as it was after the busy 2004 and 2005 seasons...
Quoting Levi32:


It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.

I have my fingers crossed for ya's all. We've been lucky here in Australia, only 4 Cyclones, 1 major.
Goodnight all. Stay safe.
Quoting Levi32:


It wouldn't be too far of a stretch considering that we have 1995 and 2005 in the analog package, but I'm playing it a bit lower right now until I see how things shape up in May, when I will update my numbers. I certainly don't expect to see another 2005 season. 14 storms is still well above normal, and is pretty close to the average of the analog package. Hopefully the year won't be as bad as it could be.

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... + 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)





Quoting atmoaggie:

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)







Except for 1964 and 1970 with a Cat 3 hitting Texas the rest had little land falling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Thank you for sharing that. (WTH were you on last night?)


HA!
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just found it confusing how the Doc called it a "cyclone" then referred to another as a "strong Low Pressure System" I know they both mean the same thing but consistency should be kept. I am doing well, Had a major Anniversary the other day which was a very somber day.


Understood, Aussie. Hang in there!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

I think I am trending a little lower than that.

As per Levi's blog post, the tracks and total numbers (TS, or better) of all systems in:
1958 (10)
1964 (12)
1966 (11)
1970 (10)
1978 (11...
... 1 unnamed subtropical storm listed for mid January!?!)





Quoting StormChaser81:


Except for 1964 the rest had little landfalling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.


Lol @ the January storm.

You both make good points and the reason I am forecasting above the average numbers of those 5 years is because they were not only during a cold PDO, but a cold AMO as well. A cold Atlantic meant fewer and less intense hurricanes. The warm AMO/cold PDO overlap was back in the late 40s through 1960, making 1958 the only year that was within that overlap. We are in that same overlap in the cycle now going into a cold PDO but the AMO is still warm. This is the best overall global ocean setup for active Atlantic hurricane seasons, which we have been beginning to see a lot of this decade.

Keep in mind we do still have some very big hitters in the line-up with 1964, 1995, 1998, and 2005.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Except for 1964 the rest had little landfalling hurricanes and most of them appear to weak cyclones and mostly tropical storms and depressions.

Ohh, there were some nasties, to be sure.

A few majors into Mexico, Helene in '58 came very close to hitting OBX as a cat 4, Hilda in '64 almost was a Betsy a year early for NOLA, but, yeah, there are a ton of almosts and a lot of landfalls of weaker systems.

Hilda, '64:


I wonder what kept this mid-Sept TS from doing much of anything...that could have been a bad one:
good morning all,

i was watching a show the other day where they stated in the middle ages that when bad weather occurred it was blamed on people who were said to be practicing witchcraft. some 50,000 people were killed during this period. just thought it was interesting, it was the first time i had heard this.

sorry kind of strange and out of the blue, thought i'd share.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
good morning all,

i was watching a show the other day where they stated in the middle ages that when bad weather occurred it was blamed on people who were said to be practicing witchcraft. some 50,000 people were killed during this period. just thought it was interesting, it was the first time i had heard this.

sorry kind of strange and out of the blue, thought i'd share.


Now that is a pleasant thought for the morning!
Quoting Levi32:


Lol @ the January storm.

You both make good points and the reason I am forecasting above the average numbers of those 5 years is because they were not only during a cold PDO, but a cold AMO as well. A cold Atlantic meant fewer and less intense hurricanes. The warm AMO/cold PDO overlap was back in the late 40s through 1960, making 1958 the only year that was within that overlap. We are in that same overlap in the cycle now going into a cold PDO but the AMO is still warm. This is the best overall global ocean setup for active Atlantic hurricane seasons, which we have been beginning to see a lot of this decade.

True!

Still having trouble thinking about any more than 14 named...leaning to a couple less. And I every once in a while hear someone point out 2005 as an analogue year...but the 2004-2005 Nino was barely a Nino at all, PDO was opposite, NAO was different...

And the SSTs, yeah, we have some positive anomalies in the MDR, Cape Verde, and Caribbean. Had that last year, too...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ohh, there were some nasties, to be sure.

A few majors into Mexico, Helene in '58 came very close to hitting OBX as a cat 4, Hilda in '64 almost was a Betsy a year early for NOLA, but, yeah, there are a ton of almosts and a lot of landfalls of weaker systems.

Hilda, '64:


I wonder what kept this mid-Sept TS from doing much of anything...that could have been a bad one:


Yup you always have at least one or two nasty storms during a average year. Ya Felice in 1970 could of been real bad for the Keys and Texas.
Quoting TampaTom:


Cue the theme from Jaws...


Years ago I was on my brother-in-laws 26' open fisherman with my wife and his wife so far east of Miami that we couldn't see land. We were drift fishing when the four of us saw this big fin coming towards the side of the boat. It turned before it got to the boat and we saw this big hammerhead look at us with that one big eye. They all swear that before it turned they heard me going: bom BOM bom BOM bom BOM bom BOM. LOL

They all swore they weren't scared until I did that! :)

We headed back to Miami really fast. :)
Another thing to consider is that even though it's tempting to only really look at the analogs that I listed within a the cold PDO, and ignore the ones in the warm PDO, they are not necessarily better analogs than the other half. As I mentioned above, the AMO was cold as well during all but 1 of the analogs from the cold PDO, and if we're going to put more weight on analogs that were in the same climate cycle as us, then the reality is that 1998, 2005, and 2007 are our best analogs, closer to the present, because we have no analogs from the last exact spot in the climate cycle that we are currently in. The last spot would have been in the 1940s, but there is no ENSO data from that far back.
My 2010 Hurricane Season Ideal Chase Scenario::

TS forms in Gulf on 8/26/2010. Projected Landfall - 5 days.

Leave NM evening of 8/27/2010. TS now Cat 1 hurricane - Projected Landfall - 4 days.

Travel Time - 2 days. Arrive at projected landfall on 8/29/2010.

Landfall - Cat II hurricane on 8/31/2010.

Stay for 1-2 days. Leave 9/2/2010

Arrive home on 9/4/2010

Edit video for YouTube in 2 days - Release video on 9/6/2010.
Quoting Grothar:


Now that is a pleasant thought for the morning!


more of, grateful for the time period we live in.
didn't mean to be unpleasant.
Quoting atmoaggie:

True!

Still having trouble thinking about any more than 14 named...leaning to a couple less. And I every once in a while hear someone point out 2005 as an analogue year...but the 2004-2005 Nino was barely a Nino at all, PDO was opposite, NAO was different...

And the SSTs, yeah, we have some positive anomalies in the MDR, Cape Verde, and Caribbean. Had that last year, too...


Lol did not.



I'm not going to be able to find perfect analogs. That is a rare and precious thing. I can only give you the closest that there is, and that is the set of 9 years I came up with.

And yeah I don't want to go higher than 14 right now, I am quite comfortable with that number. It is still very early and other factors will come into play during May that we will have to watch. This is a preliminary outlook and some factors will probably change before the season starts.
Quoting CycloneOz:
My 2010 Hurricane Season Ideal Chase Scenario::

TS forms in Gulf on 8/26/2010. Projected Landfall - 5 days.

Leave NM evening of 8/27/2010. TS now Cat 1 hurricane - Projected Landfall - 4 days.

Travel Time - 2 days. Arrive at projected landfall on 8/29/2010.

Landfall - Cat II hurricane on 8/31/2010.

Stay for 1-2 days. Leave 9/2/2010

Arrive home on 9/4/2010

Edit video for YouTube in 2 days - Release video on 9/6/2010.


If it was only that easy, you forgot a bunch of what IF's, were is it going, dam it, its moving south of us, jumps into car and start driving, hold on its stalled stay put, ok its on the move. jump into vehicle start driving etc. "to be continued"
Interesting about Hurricane Hilda's landfall location.

That is one of the best areas for a hurricane to come ashore as it is not densely populated and is mostly swamp.

Having said that, it is one of the worst places to be if you're a chaser. Houma, LA? Barely above sea level...very dangerous to be there.

Cantori would broadcast for awhile there, but right before landfall, he'd be gone and headed north towards Baton Rouge.

I'd drop in before landfall, but I wouldn't be there either when it was time for the storm to come ashore.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol did not.



I'm not going to be able to find perfect analogs. That is a rare and precious thing. I can only give you the closest that there is, and that is the set of 9 years I came up with.

Busted. (I was thinking about during the season, lol.)



The rare winter of 2009-2010 continues with widespread snow accumulations across the northern portions of SE TX yesterday.


SE TX experienced its 3rd snowfall event for this winter season yesterday.


While IAH did not accumulate snow on the 12th of Feb…snow has fallen 3 times at IAH this winter…the only other time this has happen was the winter of 1973.


A trace of snow was recorded yesterday at IAH making it the second latest snowfall ever for Houston. The latest snowfall on record is March 11, 1932.


For the month of February IAH is currently running 6.8 degrees below normal for the monthly temperature average, Galveston 7.5 degrees below average, College Station 7.6 degrees below average, and Victoria 5.4 degrees below average. Only 3 times this month has the daily temperature been above average: 8th, 20th, 21st. All of this follows a very cold December 2009 and Januray 2010.


Medium range models keep the area with below average temperatures by 5-10 degrees into early next week so Feb will no doubt end with some significant temperature departures from normal.


Snowfall Totals:


Anderson: 5.25

Centerville: 3.5

College Station: 3.5

Bryan: 3.0

Bedias: 3.0

Mexia: 3.0

Crockett: 3.0

Palestine: 4.0

Madisonville: 2.5

Waco: 3.1

Conroe: .25

Magnolia: .50

Tomball: dusting

Waller: .50

Brenham: 1.0

Willis: 1.5
Quoting StormChaser81:


If it was only that easy, you forgot a bunch of what IF's, were is it going, dam it, its moving south of us, jumps into car and start driving, hold on its stalled stay put, ok its on the move. jump into vehicle start driving etc. "to be continued"


Yep...but what I was looking at was the dates, location, and cat strength. The odds for all three to align perfectly like that are astronomical!
Quoting WaterWitch11:


more of, grateful for the time period we live in.
didn't mean to be unpleasant.


Still baking WaterWitch? Haven't talked to you in a while.
Quoting Grothar:


Still baking WaterWitch? Haven't talked to you in a while.


i'm always baking babydoll!
Leaving for the airport in a bit. Be back in FL this evening. My biggest nightmare is getting stuck in Philadelphia, for any reason. Play nice today!
Now Atmo I can go cherry-pick some nasty years from the last time we were in this spot in the climate cycle, back in the late 1940s to mid 1950s. There are more of them than you think. The 40s and 50s were two of the worst hurricane decades for the U.S. in history. Some of the years were just unbelievable.

1947: 9 named storms but horrid year for Florida. 7 of the 9 storms made landfall in the U.S., most near or over Florida.



1949: 13 named storms 1 major landfall 1 hurricane landfall.



1950 (love the storm names that year) 2 major hurricane U.S. landfalls and 8 total major hurricanes:



1953: 3 hurricane U.S. landfalls 14 named storms



1954: 11 named storms 3 major hurricane U.S. landfalls (doomsday year for the Carolinas).





Quoting Grothar:
Leaving for the airport in a bit. Be back in FL this evening. My biggest nightmare is getting stuck in Philadelphia, for any reason. Play nice today!


If you stayed another day.....





Critical Weather Day is in effect.
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A CWD has been declared from 1230Z Wed Feb 24 (7:30 AM EST Wed) - 1200Z Sat Feb 27 (7:00 AM EST Sat). NCEP, NWSTG, NCF and Eastern Region will participate in the CWD in order to support reliable data flows in preparation for a major winter storm which will impact the Northeast US over the next 24-48 hours.


Link
Quoting Grothar:
Leaving for the airport in a bit. Be back in FL this evening. My biggest nightmare is getting stuck in Philadelphia, for any reason. Play nice today!


haha Cant blame you ;)

Quoting Levi32:
Now Atmo I can go cherry-pick some nasty years from the last time we were in this spot in the climate cycle, back in the late 1940s to mid 1950s. There are more of them than you think. The 40s and 50s were two of the worst hurricane decades for the U.S. in history. Some of the years were just unbelievable.

1947: 9 named storms but horrid year for Florida. 7 of the 9 storms made landfall in the U.S., most near or over Florida.



1949: 13 named storms 1 major landfall 1 hurricane landfall.



1950 (love the storm names that year) 2 major hurricane U.S. landfalls and 8 total major hurricanes:



1953: 3 hurricane U.S. landfalls 14 named storms



1954: 11 named storms 3 major hurricane U.S. landfalls (doomsday year for the Carolinas).






Yes. The 30s and 40s were especially rough. The years of 15+ named storms are similar to our recent history. Missed sotrms in the records aside, I still have trouble with 14, or more, named storms.

Now, we could have only 12 named and still have 8 US landfalls...not saying that any year couldn't give us a potential US major TC.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


If you stayed another day.....





Critical Weather Day is in effect.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


A CWD has been declared from 1230Z Wed Feb 24 (7:30 AM EST Wed) - 1200Z Sat Feb 27 (7:00 AM EST Sat). NCEP, NWSTG, NCF and Eastern Region will participate in the CWD in order to support reliable data flows in preparation for a major winter storm which will impact the Northeast US over the next 24-48 hours.


Link


Thanks, that is why I am leaving today. I am currently in extreme NE Pennsylvania, right on the NY border. They are expecting some bad weather. Getting out just in time, I hope.
Rain and 44 here in Warrington. Drag.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Rain and 44 here in Warrington. Drag.


ugh, 22 and snow here :p
Here's a Special Announcement,our own wunderblogger,"sandcrab"..also known as "Butch Loper",retired Emg Mgr for Jackson,County ,Mississippi.has been selected to receive the

2010 National Hurricane Conference Distinguished Service Award.


Butch is a good friend and a National asset and inspiration to thousands.

His decades of service and Duty to others is unsurpassed and it was Butch Loper who befriended me here in 2006 and Im a better man for knowing him and his wife.

Please drop by his blog in the directory and congratulate Butch for this distinguished award.

Butch Speaking at Loyola University during the portlight.org 2009 NOLA relief Walk.




Howdy, I wonder how this will look moving through the next few days? I had forgotten about this site :)

Hummm, site is overloaded notice keeps popping up.....

Quoting Ossqss:
Howdy, I wonder how this will look moving through the next few days? I had forgotten about this site :)



oh, wow, forgot about that one as well :P


btw,

anyone else getting the "Site is overloaded" messages today?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yes. The 30s and 40s were especially rough. The years of 15 named storms are similar to our recent history. Missed sotrms in the records aside, I still have trouble with 14, or more, named storms.

Now, we could have only 12 named and still have 8 US landfalls...not saying that any year couldn't give us a potential US major TC.


Exactly, even if numbers are closer to average the steering pattern could make it awful for the U.S.

If you can't tell I've just been trying to defend my forecast here lol. We shall see what transpires.
2010 National Hurricane Conference

March 29 - April 2|Orlando Hilton|Orlando, FL




The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!


Participating Organizations


American Association for Wind Engineering
American Radio Relay League, Inc.
American Meteorological Society
American Public Works Association
American Red Cross
Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency
Coastal States Organization
Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services
Florida Division of Emergency Management
Insurance Information Institute
Institute for Business and Home Safety
International Association of Emergency Managers
International Code Council
LSU Hurricane Center
National Emergency Management Association
National Storm Shelter Association

Next of Kin Registry (NOKR)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service and the Tropical Predicition Center
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
USAID/OFDA, U.S. State Department
U.S. Geological Survey/Coastal and Marine Geology Program
Holy....I had forgotten about 1933!

Imagine if this is anywhere close to accurate...21 storms all west of 55W! That's insane. 7 U.S. landfalls 3 of them major hurricanes. The Caribbean and Bahamas got an incredible beating that year.

Now to me that's even scarier than 2005.

Impacts determine the suffering and calamity,..always.

2005 has a History that hopefully wont be seen for many a year.
80. IKE
This website is having issues loading today or is simply down for service. Take your pick.

Looks like the 12Z GFS backed w-a-y off on next weeks GOM storm. Good news.
The 1940s was a blockbuster decade for Texas tropical cyclones. That decade had more landfalls along the Upper Texas Coast than any other decade on record.
Quoting Levi32:
Holy....I had forgotten about 1933!

Imagine if this is anywhere close to accurate...21 storms all west of 55W! That's insane. 7 U.S. landfalls 3 of them major hurricanes. The Caribbean and Bahamas got an incredible beating that year.

Now to me that's even scarier than 2005.


How did you forget that one? Heck, I was -44 years old and I remember it.

I seriously doubt that all systems were counted that year...really, 1/3rd of the Atlantic gets nothing in a year that active?
Quoting atmoaggie:

How did you forget that one? Heck, I was -44 years old and I remember it.

I seriously doubt that all systems were counted that year...really, 1/3rd of the Atlantic gets nothing in a year that active?


That's why I said "if" it's accurate. That year obviously could have rivaled 2005.

Yes I'm not that great at history, having only been around since the 90s lol. Writing my outlook for last year and this year was some of the only quality time I have really spent researching past hurricane seasons.
Impressive 65-70 dBZ levels, nice hail core.
Quoting Levi32:


That's why I said "if" it's accurate. That year obviously could have rivaled 2005.

Yes I'm not that great at history, having only been around since the 90s lol. Writing my outlook for last year and this year was some of the only quality time I have really spent researching past hurricane seasons.

One of my favorite documents concerning our historical records, observation methods, and then and now comparisons is Landsea's EOS paper: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

For those that just want the punchline, I find this graphic most telling.


TRIVIA TIME: Why did he choose 1965 and 1966 as the endpoints for his average calculation?
Quoting atmoaggie:

One of my favorite documents concerning our historical records, observation methods, and then and now comparisons is Landsea's EOS paper: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

For those that just want the punchline, I find this graphic most telling.


TRIVIA TIME: Why did he choose 1965 and 1966 as the endpoints for his average calculation?


I know this isnt why, but wasnt the Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak in 1965?
The beginning of the satellite era?
Quoting Levi32:
Holy....I had forgotten about 1933!

Imagine if this is anywhere close to accurate...21 storms all west of 55W! That's insane. 7 U.S. landfalls 3 of them major hurricanes. The Caribbean and Bahamas got an incredible beating that year.

Now to me that's even scarier than 2005.



Ok, now that would screw up my vacation to Cuba.. so stop it right now :)
For any of you that utilize the Iphone App...

I have emailed Jeff Masters and Admin regarding the fact that we can sign in via the app but have no ability to view or post comments, hence making the ability to sign in irrelevant. I have yet to receive any answers other than being instructed to use www.wunderground.com. Hopefully someone will soon realize this challenge and addrees it accordingly.

If anyone else has already attempted to address this issue please advise here.

Thanks
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The beginning of the satellite era?

Ding, ding, ding! What did he win, Bob? Bob? Awwwwww, darn.

The launch of our first reliable weather satellite, Nimbus 2, May 15, 1966. (Though did not last long, was followed by many others)

Many details about the first ones, and those that follow (bottom) here: http://space.skyrocket.de/index_frame.htm?http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/nimbus-1.htm
Quoting IKE:
This website is having issues loading today or is simply down for service. Take your pick.

Looks like the 12Z GFS backed w-a-y off on next weeks GOM storm. Good news.


I saw that too. Really strange since the 6z run was really the first time it cranked up that low in the Central GOM, causing it to suck down plenty of cold air and causing another snowstorm way far south into the Gulf Coast region. Going to be interesting to see if the 6z run was picking up on something and the 12z run was just a bad run. Have any idea what the 12z European had?
Quoting tornadodude:


I know this isnt why, but wasnt the Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak in 1965?

Why, yes, it was...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Why, yes, it was...


oh ok...
The highway to hell--Dunlap Indiana April 11, 1965:

Quoting atmoaggie:

One of my favorite documents concerning our historical records, observation methods, and then and now comparisons is Landsea's EOS paper: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

For those that just want the punchline, I find this graphic most telling.


TRIVIA TIME: Why did he choose 1965 and 1966 as the endpoints for his average calculation?


That is quite revealing. That really hones in on the undercounts before the satellite era, making a higher percentage of the observed storms strike land back when that was the primary way to detect them. Very interesting. Thanks for posting it.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The highway to hell--Dunlap Indiana April 11, 1965:



whoa
<<< for 2010 16-7-4
Saturn moon could be hospitable to life

New detailed images of Saturn's icy moon released this week provide the latest evidence that the surface may be hospitable to life.

NASA said on Tuesday that a flyby of planet's Enceladus moon showed small jets of water spewing from the southern hemisphere, while infrared mapping of the surface revealed temperatures warmer than previously expected.

"The huge amount of heat pouring out of the tiger stripe fractures may be enough to melt the ice underground," said John Spencer, a composite infrared spectrometer team member based at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colo.

"Results like this make Enceladus one of the most exciting places we've found in the solar system."

In the measurements, peak temperatures along Baghdad Sulcus exceed 180 Kelvin (minus 135 degrees Fahrenheit), and may be higher than 200 Kelvin (minus 100 degrees Fahrenheit).

"The fractures are chilly by Earth standards, but they're a cozy oasis compared to the numbing 50 Kelvin (-370 Fahrenheit) of their surroundings," Spencer explained.

Although the temperature estimate is not yet definitive, the hotter the surface temperature makes for a hotter interior, strengthening the chances of pools of liquid water inside the moon. That would also increase the likelihood life could be present in the interior as well.

"And if true, this makes Enceladus' organic-rich, liquid sub-surface environment the most accessible extraterrestrial watery zone known in the solar system," said Carolyn Porco another NASA specialist.
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20100224/saturn-moon-could-be-hospitable-life.htm
Quoting tornadodude:


whoa

A rough day, certainly, but not quite in the level of the 1973 outbreak:

Afternoon, all. We are having some nasty weather here - have been since Sunday night - with heavy downpours and even some bouts of thunder/lightning. This is really weird wx for late February, when we are used to balmy breezes, sunny skies, and temps in the mid / upper 70s. I can't help but wonder what the summer will have in store, given the current patterns......
Quoting atmoaggie:

A rough day, certainly, but not quite in the level of the 1973 outbreak:


WOW! That was quite an outbreak!
A hurricane-spawned tornado boom
Cyclones striking Gulf Coast in recent years have generated more twisters that those that hit the region in the mid-20th century

Hurricanes and tropical storms striking the Gulf Coast region since 1995 have spun off more twisters than those that hit during the mid-20th century, mostly because the more-recent storms have been broader and therefore have covered more area, a new study suggests.

Most tropical storms and hurricanes trigger tornado outbreaks upon striking land, says Judith A. Curry, an atmospheric scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. And even though most cyclone-spawned tornadoes are weak, they can cause significant death and destruction: The 117 tornadoes associated with Hurricane Ivan’s landfall in 2004, for example, killed seven people, injured 47, and caused nearly $97 million in property damage. Now, an analysis by Curry and her colleagues reveals that landfalling cyclones have become more prolific tornado producers than they used to be.
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/47284/title/A_hurricane-spawned_tornado_boom


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NOAA_ACE_index_1950-2004_RGB.svg
103:

Couldnt that be because of higher population along the coastal areas?
Rough day for the golfers:


PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
141 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1235 PM HAIL PALM CITY 27.17N 80.27W
02/24/2010 E1.50 INCH MARTIN FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 INJ *** TWO GOLFERS INJURED BY HAIL AND BLEEDING
FROM HEAD HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED.

Quoting tornadodude:
103:

Couldnt that be because of higher population along the coastal areas?

Yes
Quoting tornadodude:
103:

Couldnt that be because of higher population along the coastal areas?

Many factors. Back than they had not the information/media emergency bulletins and buildings might have been not that good.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Many factors. Back than they had not the information/media emergency bulletins and buildings might have been not that good.


yeah, thats true. might have been the same number of tornadoes, but not as many would have been reported
Quoting atmoaggie:

A rough day, certainly, but not quite in the level of the 1973 outbreak:



That map just blows my mind.... couldn't imagine being under siege like that...
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Many factors. Back than they had not the information/media emergency bulletins and buildings might have been not that good.

Yup exactly right-- more eyes to witness, and more technology to detect nowadays
Quoting Levi32:


That's why I said "if" it's accurate. That year obviously could have rivaled 2005.

Yes I'm not that great at history, having only been around since the 90s lol. Writing my outlook for last year and this year was some of the only quality time I have really spent researching past hurricane seasons.
Levi, until 2005, that WAS the record year for numbers, etc. A lot of pple back in 05 were debating whether '33 was not actually worse than 2005, given the "blank 1/3 of the map" atmo drew our attention to in an earlier post.

The years between 1925 and 1935 were some of the worst for Bahamian hurricane history - I think we had more majors through here in those 10 years than we did in the next 40 or 50.....

Sure hope we aren't going to have another year like 1926, 1928, or 1933.....
Plus Doppler radar wasnt as powerful back then. So radar had a hard time depicting rotation like it does now, not all tornado's show a hook echo on radar, some are hidden in clouds and heavy rain shields.

Probably the only way they got those estimates was from actually walking the storm paths.
Good afternoon all

It looks like we will get a nice downpour here in the Caymans real soon. We do need it. Only .20 of an inch for feb and not much more than that since last year. The dry season is in full swing here now.

GOM AVN Flash loop
115. IKE
Quoting MississippiWx:


I saw that too. Really strange since the 6z run was really the first time it cranked up that low in the Central GOM, causing it to suck down plenty of cold air and causing another snowstorm way far south into the Gulf Coast region. Going to be interesting to see if the 6z run was picking up on something and the 12z run was just a bad run. Have any idea what the 12z European had?


Here it is...12Z ECMWF.

Maybe the 12Z GFS was a bad run.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, thats true. might have been the same number of tornadoes, but not as many would have been reported

That is why we have scientist who research this ;)
And they say today that storms get more intense and bigger.

Tropical storms to be more intense but less frequent: climate study

I think they will be more frequent.
Hurricanes Now Stronger and More Frequent Than Anytime in Past 1,000 Years
At least, according to one study.


If you see storms, the are increasing, for example this 2 winter blizzards in the US statisticly only happen once in 700 years. We will find out ;)
Hey, Kman. We're having one of our rainier Febs so far, Though I don't think the numbers for the winter are up overall....
Quoting kmanislander:
Good afternoon all

It looks like we will get a nice downpour here in the Caymans real soon. We do need it. Only .20 of an inch for feb and not much more than that since last year. The dry season is in full swing here now.

GOM AVN Flash loop



Impressive Convection with this storm system...
Quoting IKE:
This website is having issues loading today or is simply down for service. Take your pick.

Looks like the 12Z GFS backed w-a-y off on next weeks GOM storm. Good news.


Excerpt from EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION


OVERALL...12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT FORECAST SPREAD DID INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAYS
6/7 WITH SYSTEM DEEPENING/TRACK OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US/GULF OF
MEX TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12 UTC GFS/UKMET SEEM OUTLIERS WITH A
FAR SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TRACK NOT SUPPORTED BY
CONTINUITY...12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES...12 UTC CANADIAN...OR
ESPECIALLY THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT STILL SUPPORTS DEEP COASTAL STORM
POTENTIAL.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Kman. We're having one of our rainier Febs so far, Though I don't think the numbers for the winter are up overall....


Send some this way :-)

Dry as a bone here and my cistern is three quarters empty. I sure don't want to start watering the yard with mains water !!
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Cyclones striking Gulf Coast in recent years have generated more twisters that those that hit the region in the mid-20th century

Hurricanes and tropical storms striking the Gulf Coast region since 1995 have spun off more twisters than those that hit during the mid-20th century, mostly because the more-recent storms have been broader and therefore have covered more area, a new study suggests.

They're crazy. In locations that get the eyewall winds, there are 2 ways to figure if a tornado happened. Eye witness and radar signature. Debris patterns are tough to use where the hurricane winds were very strong.

So, given that we know well that population density had a lot to do with reported visible confirmations of tornadoes and tornado damage, I think we could discount that as a viable means to determine tornadoes in the mid-20th century and now.

Wiki: "In 1953, Donald Staggs, an electrical engineer working for the Illinois State Water Survey, made the first recorded radar observation of a "hook echo" associated with a tornadic thunderstorm.[3]

Between 1950 and 1980, reflectivity radars, which measure position and intensity of precipitation, were built by weather services around the world. The early meteorologists had to watch a cathode ray tube. During the 1970s, radars began to be standardized and organized into networks. The first devices to capture radar images were developed. The number of scanned angles was increased to get a three-dimensional view of the precipitation, so that horizontal cross-sections (CAPPI) and vertical ones could be performed. Studies of the organization of thunderstorms were then possible for the Alberta Hail Project in Canada and National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in the US in particular.

The NSSL, created in 1964, began experimentation on dual polarization signals and on Doppler effect uses. In May 1973, a tornado devastated Union City, Oklahoma, just west of Oklahoma City. For the first time, a Dopplerized 10-cm wavelength radar from NSSL documented the entire life cycle of the tornado.[4] The researchers discovered a mesoscale rotation in the cloud aloft before the tornado touched the ground : the tornadic vortex signature. NSSL’s research helped convince the National Weather Service that Doppler radar was a crucial forecasting tool.[4] The Super Outbreak of tornadoes on April 3–4, 1974 and their devastating destruction might have helped to get funding for further developments."

(nice how everything went in a circle, here)
Radar clearly didn't have the capability that it does now to detect rotation. Before the WSR-88D, we had little profile information and, usually, no radial velocity data. And without the algorithms that look for rotation in the data, we would be dependent on a human observer with eyelids stapled back over a CRT. Forget it.

So, just how could they figure on tornadoes in hurricanes before good coverage from WSR-88D radars? They modeled it. We cannot successfully produce a computer-modeled tornado using the physics we have today without inducing one, but we are supposed to believe they can accurately figure tornadoes in hurricanes?

Sorry. That sounds loco.

And to say that we know that hurricanes lately have become larger is absurd, too. I don't believe anyone can say they are confident in hurricane RMW or TS-force extents for hurricanes before the 70s, considering the difference in measurement systems through the years. (see Landsea paper)
118 Stormchaser

It almost looks as if a surface low is trying to form on the SW side of that blow up. Very unusual to see convection that heavy in the NW Caribbean this time of year. Typically we get rain ahead of a front but in a passing shower.
Quoting IKE:


Here it is...12Z ECMWF.

Maybe the 12Z GFS was a bad run.


Oh wow...ECMWF has it pretty strong in the Central Gulf. I knew it had been advertising this for a few days now. If that plays out, it could be a monster storm. I must admit, I won't mind seeing one more snow here before winter winds down. We've had three snows here in Hattiesburg this year (third one happened this morning...heavy snow off and on for about an hour and a half). Today's didn't accumulate but it was still beautiful.
124. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Excerpt from EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION


OVERALL...12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT FORECAST SPREAD DID INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAYS
6/7 WITH SYSTEM DEEPENING/TRACK OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US/GULF OF
MEX TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12 UTC GFS/UKMET SEEM OUTLIERS WITH A
FAR SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TRACK NOT SUPPORTED BY
CONTINUITY...12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES...12 UTC CANADIAN...OR
ESPECIALLY THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT STILL SUPPORTS DEEP COASTAL STORM
POTENTIAL.


Thanks. Looks like they threw the 12Z GFS out.


Q4 down around Boca is showing signs of rotation. Could be a brief tornado with that cell.
Quoting kmanislander:
118 Stormchaser

It almost looks as if a surface low is trying to form on the SW side of that blow up. Very unusual to see convection that heavy in the NW Caribbean this time of year. Typically we get rain ahead of a front but in a passing shower.


Interactive Goes

I'd say your are correct you can see the northwest side trying to wrap around and it is building some serious convection on the northeastern side.
Quoting atmoaggie:

They're crazy.
Sorry. That sounds loco.

And to say that we know that hurricanes lately have become larger is absurd, too.

You use NOAA as your source. NOAA said 2008
NOAA Says Hurricanes Becoming Less Frequent, More Intense
http://www.contingencyplanning.com/articles/63340/

Now in 2010 scientist come to a consensus that storms weill be more intense.

What about your grafic atmo, please cite the source. Currently it is from tinypic ...
Quoting IKE:


Thanks. Looks like they threw the 12Z GFS out.


Appears to be a low confidence forecast... the GFS may end up being correct, too early to know. HPC is a lot like NHC in they will usually not make large changes in their forecasts, but gradually. The continuity thing...
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, thats true. might have been the same number of tornadoes, but not as many would have been reported


1971-94 was the last lull period too...
Quoting tornadodude:
103:

Couldnt that be because of higher population along the coastal areas?


i think 3 of the 7 people killed were in panama city area and only one was on the coast. two were in a little rural isolated town on east bay called allenton. one guy hid in the closet with the hot water heater and when the tornado hit he was scalded to death. an elderly woman was killed when the tornado picked up her block house and set it back down on her in a rain of broken concrete. a box of momentos from her attic was found fifty miles away on the roof of a house in gulf county.
131. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Appears to be a low confidence forecast... the GFS may end up being correct, too early to know. HPC is a lot like NHC in they will usually not make large changes in their forecasts, but gradually. The continuity thing...


See what the next GFS run shows.

Tracks for all storms reaching category 4 or 5 intensity, for the control and the warmed 18-model ensemble conditions, as obtained using the GFDL/NWS hurricane model.

*Intriguingly, while normal El Niños tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, so-called Modoki El Niños are actually positively correlated with them, and as the planet warms it looks as though Modoki El Niños are becoming more common.

Relevant sections from the AR4 are below the fold:

From the IPCC AR4 WG1 section on tropical cyclones (“Box 3.5: Tropical Cyclones and Changes in Climate”):

In the summer tropics, outgoing longwave radiative cooling from the surface to space is not effective in the high water vapour, optically thick environment of the tropical oceans. Links to higher latitudes are weakest in the summer tropics, and transports of energy by the atmosphere, such as occur in winter, are also not an effective cooling mechanism, while monsoonal circulations between land and ocean redistribute energy in areas where they are active. However, tropical storms cool the ocean surface through mixing with cooler deeper ocean layers and through evaporation. When the latent heat is realised in precipitation in the storms, the energy is transported high into the troposphere where it can radiate to space, with the system acting somewhat like a Carnot cycle (Emanuel, 2003). Hence, tropical cyclones appear to play a key role in alleviating the heat from the summer Sun over the oceans.

As the climate changes and SSTs continue to increase (see Section 3.2.2.3), the environment in which tropical storms form is changed. Higher SSTs are generally accompanied by increased water vapour in the lower troposphere (see Section 3.4.2.1 and Figure 3.20), thus the moist static energy that fuels convection and thunderstorms is also increased. Hurricanes and typhoons currently form from pre-existing disturbances only where SSTs exceed about 26°C and, as SSTs have increased, it thereby potentially expands the areas over which such storms can form. However, many other environmental factors also influence the generation and tracks of disturbances, and wind shear in the atmosphere greatly influences whether or not these disturbances can develop into tropical storms. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation and variations in monsoons as well as other factors also affect where storms form and track (e.g., Gray, 1984). Whether the large-scale thermodynamic environment and atmospheric static stability (often measured by Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE) becomes more favourable for tropical storms depends on how changes in atmospheric circulation, especially subsidence, affect the static stability of the atmosphere, and how the wind shear changes. The potential intensity, defined as the maximum wind speed achievable in a given thermodynamic environment (e.g., Emanuel, 2003), similarly depends critically on SSTs and atmospheric structure. The tropospheric lapse rate is maintained mostly by convective transports of heat upwards, in thunderstorms and thunderstorm complexes, including mesoscale disturbances, various waves and tropical storms, while radiative processes serve to cool the troposphere. Increases in greenhouse gases decrease radiative cooling aloft, thus potentially stabilising the atmosphere. In models, the parametrization of sub-grid scale convection plays a critical role in determining whether this stabilisation is realised and whether CAPE is released or not. All of these factors, in addition to SSTs, determine whether convective complexes become organised as rotating storms and form a vortex.

While attention has often been focussed simply on the frequency or number of storms, the intensity, size and duration likely matter more. NOAA’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index (Levinson and Waple, 2004) approximates the collective intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes during a given season and is proportional to maximum surface sustained winds squared. The power dissipation of a storm is proportional to the wind speed cubed (Emanuel, 2005a), as the main dissipation is from surface friction and wind stress eff ects, and is measured by a Power Dissipation Index (PDI). Consequently, the effects of these storms are highly nonlinear and one big storm may have much greater impacts on the environment and climate system than several smaller storms.

From an observational perspective then, key issues are the tropical storm formation regions, the frequency, intensity, duration and tracks of tropical storms, and associated precipitation. For landfalling storms, the damage from winds and flooding, as well as storm surges, are especially of concern, but often depend more on human factors, including whether people place themselves in harm’s way, their vulnerability and their resilience through such things as building codes.

From the AR4 WG2 section on tropical cyclones:

Variations in tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons in many small-island regions are dominated by ENSO and decadal variability which result in a redistribution of tropical storms and their tracks, so that increases in one basin are often compensated by decreases in other basins. For example, during an El Niño event, the incidence of tropical storms typically decreases in theAtlantic and far-western Pacific and the Australian regions, but increases in the central and eastern Pacific, and vice versa. Clear evidence exists that the number of storms reaching categories 4 and 5 globally have increased since 1970, along with increases in the Power Dissipation Index (Emanuel, 2005) due to increases in their intensity and duration (Trenberth et al., 2007). The total number of cyclones and cyclone days decreased slightly in most basins. The largest increase was in the North Pacific, Indian and South- West Pacific oceans. The global view of tropical storm activity highlights the important role of ENSO in all basins. The most active year was 1997, when a very strong El Niño began, suggesting that the observed record sea surface temperatures (SSTs) played a key role (Trenberth et al., 2007). For extratropical cyclones, positive trends in storm frequency and intensity dominate during recent decades in most regional studies performed. Longer records for the North Atlantic suggest that the recent extreme period may be similar in level to that of the late 19th century (Trenberth et al., 2007).

In the tropical South Pacific, small islands to the east of the dateline are highly likely to receive a higher number of tropical storms during an El Niño event compared with a La Niña event and vice versa (Brazdil et al., 2002). Observed tropical cyclone activity in the South Pacific east of 160°E indicates an increase in level of activity, with the most active years associated with El Niño events, especially during the strong 1982/1983 and 1997/1998 events (Levinson, 2005).Webster et al. (2005) found more than a doubling in the number of category 4 and 5 storms in the South-West Pacific from the period 1975–1989 to the period 1990–2004. In the 2005/2006 season, La Niña influences shifted tropical storm activity away from the South Pacific region to the Australian region and, in March and April 2006, four category 5 typhoons occurred (Trenberth et al., 2007).

In the Caribbean, hurricane activity was greater from the 1930s to the 1960s, in comparison with the 1970s and 1980s and the first half of the 1990s. Beginning with 1995, all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline). The exceptions are the two El Niño years of 1997 and 2002. El Niño acts to reduce activity and La Niña acts to increase activity in the North Atlantic. The increase contrasts sharply with the generally below-normal seasons observed during the previous 25-year period, 1975 to 1994. These multi-decadal fluctuations in hurricane activity result almost entirely from differences in the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes forming from tropical storms first named in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea.

In the Indian Ocean, tropical storm activity (May to December) in the northern Indian Ocean has been near normal in recent years. For the southern Indian Ocean, the tropical cyclone season is normally active from December to April. A lack of historical record-keeping severely hinders trend analysis (Trenberth et al., 2007).
http://thingsbreak.wordpress.com/2010/01/22/tropical-cyclones-climate-and-consensus/
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Interesting times coming for the climate models. I wonder how they will change without the homogenization or extrapolation that is in place today? Interesting that they would even consider it......

February 24, 2010
Met Office: we must check 150 years of climate data


Met office proposal

"The proposed activity would provide a set of independent assessments of surface temperature produced by independent groups using independent methods."
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

You use NOAA as your source. NOAA said 2008
NOAA Says Hurricanes Becoming Less Frequent, More Intense
http://www.contingencyplanning.com/articles/63340/

Now in 2010 scientist come to a consensus that storms weill be more intense.

What about your grafic atmo, please cite the source. Currently it is from tinypic ...

I am very familiar with that GFDL/NOAA study, thanks.
Here is my post about it in the climate change blog (hint,hint)

Quoting atmoaggie:
While the dog has fleas, considering they use the IPCC AR4 GCM projections (hey, what else could they do?), this is interesting, nonetheless.

Responses to general questions concerning that latest hurricane intensity/AGW report: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/21st-century-projections-of-intense-hurricanes/


Plot:

Try not to get too terribly excited about a hurricane intensity study completely dependent on climate model projections. (GIGO) But try out the link in my quote, far better than any other I have seen on the matter.

? My graphic is from the link posted with it. It was published in the EOS newsletter of the American Geophysical Union by Chris Landsea of NOAA's Atmospheric Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML).

Is any of that a problem for you?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
From the IPCC AR4 WG1 section on tropical cyclones (%u201CBox 3.5: Tropical Cyclones and Changes in Climate%u201D)

Make sure you buy some sand on your next visit to a desert.
St. Petersburg, FL

57*F

Humidity: 81 %
Wind Speed: NW 24 G 30 MPH
Barometer: 29.77" (1008.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 51 °F (11 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
hi guys we going to get some rain and hope we get lots more I wish that the cold front dies and that surface trough turns in to a tropical wave and come over us and give more and more rain and some nice warm winds and way talk later around 5 or 6
Quoting BahaHurican:
Levi, until 2005, that WAS the record year for numbers, etc. A lot of pple back in 05 were debating whether '33 was not actually worse than 2005, given the "blank 1/3 of the map" atmo drew our attention to in an earlier post.

The years between 1925 and 1935 were some of the worst for Bahamian hurricane history - I think we had more majors through here in those 10 years than we did in the next 40 or 50.....

Sure hope we aren't going to have another year like 1926, 1928, or 1933.....


Yes I remember now discussing 1933 back in '05....like I said I was never very educated in hurricane history. I've only been tracking them for 5 years, so I'm still learning about some of the big years and historic storms back in the old days. It's hard to keep all the dates in my head the first time I look them up lol.
atmoaggie, Try not to get too terribly excited about a hurricane intensity study completely dependent on climate model projections.


Maybe you talk about something else, this study i refering to looked at peer-reviewed studys from past 4 years.

Tropical storms to be more intense
Known in the Atlantic as hurricanes and in eastern Asia as typhoons, tropical storms are driven by the raw fuel of warm seas, which raises the question about what may happen when temperatures rise as a result of greenhouse gases.

Tom Knutson and colleagues from the UN's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) looked at peer-reviewed investigations that have appeared over the past four years, when the issue began to hit the headlines.

Their benchmark for warming is the "A1B" scenario, a middle-of-the-road computer simulation which predicts a global average surface temperature rise of 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) over the 21st century.

"It is likely that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially unchanged," says the paper.

But storms could have more powerful winds -- an increase of between two and 11 percent -- and dump more water, it warns.

Rainfall could increase by 20 percent within 100 kilometres (62 miles) of the eye of the storm.

In addition, some storm basins will "more likely than not" see a big increase in the frequency of high-impact storms.
However, the panel said it was less confident in concluding whether the number of cyclones would decrease.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gwvgbRc4epCac4RjL99yTubj6mGA


Is the intensity of hurricanes increasing?

Several peer-reviewed studies show a clear global trend toward increased intensity of the strongest hurricanes over the past two or three decades. The strongest trends are in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Indian Ocean. According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is “more likely than not” (better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, “it is likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical [sea surface temperatures].”
http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#change
drgodOwnCountry... Neat post. As the the globe warms ( regardless if man has contributed to it or not ) I believe We will see a gradual change in the common weather patterns that we are familiar with. The idea that we may see less tropical cyclones but more intense ones is an interesting thought. I have always wondered if the weather patterns were just right over the Atlantic, how many major hurricanes could form in one season?
Quoting hydrus:
how many major hurricanes could form in one season?

The size, intensity and duration of even a single hurricane could be enough.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

The size, intensity and duration of even a single hurricane could be enough.
I know that! :) What I am trying to say is that in the past there may have been weather patterns that were more proficient for spawning numerous intense hurricanes.
Afternoon,all,hope everyone is doing ok,up here in new england we have a tale of two storms in one.The western portion of new england getting dumped with 1to2 feet of snow,with power outages all over the place.Im in eastern Mass and getting almost 2 inches of rain.Brief lull tonight and anothe round of 2 inch rains tomorrow.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry: 132. drg0dOwnCountry 7:54 PM GMT on February 24, 2010


Some things to point out...

"*Intriguingly, while normal El Ninos tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, so-called Modoki El Ninos are actually positively correlated with them, and as the planet warms it looks as though Modoki El Ninos are becoming more common."

Modoki El Ninos are centered more westward over the central equatorial Pacific, and El Ninos will tend to behave this way when they form within a cold PDO. We have been beginning to head back down into a cold PDO for the last 10 years, and if you notice El Ninos have indeed become biased more often towards the central Pacific as opposed to the eastern Pacific.

"Clear evidence exists that the number of storms reaching categories 4 and 5 globally have increased since 1970"

Because the PDO was cold until 1978, after which it has been in its warm phase until the late 2000s. A cold PDO kept the world's oceans generally cold from the 1940s through the 1970s, but after going into its warm phase the world oceans warmed, increasing the number of intense hurricanes.

"Longer records for the North Atlantic suggest that the recent extreme period may be similar in level to that of the late 19th century "

The late 19th century would have been during the last intersection of a cold PDO and warm AMO, which is very conducive to active North Atlantic hurricane seasons.

"In the Caribbean, hurricane activity was greater from the 1930s to the 1960s, in comparison with the 1970s and 1980s and the first half of the 1990s.Beginning with 1995, all but two Atlantic hurricane seasons have been above normal (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline)."

Guess why? If you look at the AMO graph, the Atlantic was clearly warm from the 1930s to the 1960s. The AMO went cold from the mid-60s through the early 90s, and also combined with a warm PDO from the late 70s onward, hence the slack in activity compared to the previous 30 years. In 1995 guess what happened, the AMO went warm, increasing Atlantic (Caribbean) hurricane activity once again.

"The increase contrasts sharply with the generally below-normal seasons observed during the previous 25-year period, 1975 to 1994."

And once again we find that from 1975 to 1994 the AMO was cold and the PDO was warm, resulting in a colder-than-normal Atlantic Ocean and unfavorable conditions aloft, resulting in lowered hurricane activity. It's no surprise that after the AMO went warm in 1995 and the PDO is now going cold, hurricane activity will sharply increase over the North Atlantic basin.
~~~~~~~~~~~

So....Global Warming caused all this? I think not. Look at the PDO and AMO graphs and compare to all the quotes and dates I just listed from that paper. Look up the data yourself and see what was going on during the periods of low and high tropical cyclone activity world-wide. You'll be amazed at how much sense it makes.
Quoting Levi32:


Some things to point out...

We talk on 2 diffrent subjects here. First the IPCC report from 2007 and the new study looking at last 4 years of studys.

You just responded to the 2007 IPCC report on climate change and tropical storms.
I read your comments.
FYI...

It appears that a killer whale lived up to its name...

In front of a crowd, too... yikes
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

We talk on 2 diffrent subjects here. First the IPCC report from 2007 and the new study looking at last 4 years of studys.

You just responded to the 2007 IPCC report on climate change and tropical storms.
I read your comments.


I don't care what papers they are or if it's 2 papers or 1 it doesn't matter. What matters is people saying this:

"*Intriguingly, while normal El Niños tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, so-called Modoki El Niños are actually positively correlated with them, and as the planet warms it looks as though Modoki El Niños are becoming more common."

...Obviously referring to Global Warming, as I know you are a supporter of GW. I'm trying to point out why GW shouldn't be the automatically assumed cause of the result of these papers.
Trainer killed by killer whale at SeaWorld in Fla. Link
USA USA USA!
The myth of global warming blizzards
WRITTEN BY JAMES M. TAYLOR, HEARTLAND INSTITUTE, VIA EMAIL | 23 FEBRUARY 2010


Faced with the embarrassment of record snowstorms this winter, global warming apologists are now telling us such blizzards prove the existence of global warming.

Global warming computer models, we are told, predict a higher frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, drought, floods, violent storms, and, yes, blizzards. The problem with this theory is that there is no such increase in extreme weather events in the real world.

High temperature extremes are not becoming more frequent. The all-time high temperature in Africa was set in 1922; in North America, 1913; in Asia, 1942; in Australia, 1889; in Europe, 1977; and in South America, 1920. In the United States, 30 of the 50 states experienced their all-time high temperature between 1910 and 1940. Fully 40 of the 50 states had their all-time high temperature before 1980.

Flooding events likewise show no sign of increase. National Climatic Data Center records show U.S. precipitation has increased nearly 10 percent in the past 115 years, but fully half of this increase occurred during the fall drought season, when the least amount of precipitation happens and an increase in precipitation would be most beneficial.

A study of stream flows and flooding events published in the April 2009 peer-reviewed Journal of the American Water Resources Association confirms this. “There is broad evidence … for increased magnitudes of low and moderate flows both regionally and nationally,” while “trends in high flows have been much less evident,” the study concluded.

Nor is drought becoming a problem. Not only is precipitation—particularly precipitation during the fall drought season—becoming more dependable, but drought as a whole is in sharp decline. A study published in the May 2006 peer-reviewed Geophysical Research Letters reported, “Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century.”

A study in the March 2006 peer-reviewed Journal of Hydrology reached a similar conclusion. “Evidence indicates that summer soil moisture content has increased during the last several decades at almost all sites having long-term records in the Global Soil Moisture Data Bank.”

The oft-repeated claim that violent storms are becoming more numerous is also demonstrably false. National Weather Service records show the number of strong (F2 and higher) tornadoes in the United States has been declining for the past 35 years. Roughly twice as many strong tornadoes struck the nation during the 1960s and 1970s, when the globe was cooling, as struck in the 1990s and 2000s.

The hurricane record is similar. National Weather Service records show hurricanes struck the United States far more frequently in the late 1800s through the 1950s than has been the case since the 1960s. In fact, global hurricane frequency during the past two years was lower than at any time since at least the 1970s.

Which brings us back to blizzards. Global warming apologists are claiming this year’s frequent blizzards and record snow amounts are evidence of global warming because warmer temperatures allow the air to hold more moisture, which in turn leads to heavier snow events. The problem with this theory is that North America has experienced one of its coldest winters in decades. It is certainly not warmer air this year that is causing more blizzards.

Moreover, prior winter snow records, such as Washington DC’s prior record snowfall in 1899, were set during unusually cold winters, not unusually warm ones. The winter of 1899 was one of the coldest U.S. winters on record, especially during February when most of the record blizzards occurred.

Global warming apologists seek to blame anything and everything on global warming, but the assertion that global warming is causing more blizzards and extreme weather events simply does not stand up under objective analysis.

James M. Taylor ( jtaylor@heartland.org ) is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute
Quoting Levi32:


I don't care what papers they are or if it's 2 papers or 1 it doesn't matter. What matters is people saying this:

"*Intriguingly, while normal El Niños tend to suppress Atlantic hurricanes, so-called Modoki El Niños are actually positively correlated with them, and as the planet warms it looks as though Modoki El Niños are becoming more common."

...Obviously referring to Global Warming, as I know you are a supporter of GW. I'm trying to point out why GW shouldn't be the automatically assumed cause of the result of these papers.

I think this was not the point here. The point is that we can observe storms which last longer, drop more precipitation, cost more money etc. And this is from warmer waters/temperatures.
We need clean energy to prevent more warming.
144: Very good.

To toss in a little history, obviously something in the 20th century was different from the late 1800s, too, when Georgia's coastline was hit by a number of major hurricanes. Georgia was hit by cat 3s in 1854, 1893, and a cat 4 in 1898. None since. Clearly AGW wasn't the reason in the teens through 40s.

What was it? I am with you in the combination of cycles...most likely cause, but never could try proving it without good data.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

I think this was not the point here. The point is that we can observe storms which last longer, drop more precipitation, cost more money etc. And this is from warmer waters/temperatures.
We need clean energy to prevent more warming.


You say that and then say GW is not the point? lol

Ok I'll drop it now, my explanation of the paper is already posted above. Look at the PDO and AMO graphs and tell me if the correlation to the listed dates isn't good enough to mean anything at all. The dates listed in the paper couldn't fit more perfectly to the natural oceanic-atmospheric climate cycles over the last century.
Quoting Skepticall:
The myth of global warming blizzards
WRITTEN BY JAMES M. TAYLOR, HEARTLAND INSTITUTE,

James M. Taylor ( jtaylor@heartland.org ) is senior fellow for environment policy at The Heartland Institute

No increase in flooding ;)
Do you belive what he says or why do you post this?
Quoting atmoaggie:
144: Very good.

To toss in a little history, obviously something in the 20th century was different from the late 1800s, too, when Georgia's coastline was hit by a number of major hurricanes. Georgia was hit by cat 3s in 1854, 1893, and a cat 4 in 1898. None since. Clearly AGW wasn't the reason in the teens through 40s.

What was it? I am with you in the combination of cycles...most likely cause, but never could try proving it without good data.


It's hard to prove nearly anything weather-wise from before the satellite era due to arguments about lack of data, and there are obviously going to be other things in play, but I think everyone will agree that the biggest effect on global tropical cyclones are easily the oceans.

As to why Georgia hasn't been hit by a major in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline. Many storms have come pretty close, including hurricane Dora in 1964 that nailed Jacksonville, Florida.



Hurricane Able also came quite close in 1952, a Cat 2 hurricane:



And of course Hurricane David in 1979:

Quoting Levi32:


You say that and then say GW is not the point? lol

Ok I'll drop it now, my explanation of the paper is already posted above. Look at the PDO and AMO graphs and tell me if the correlation to the listed dates isn't good enough to mean anything at all. The dates listed in the paper couldn't fit more perfectly to the natural oceanic-atmospheric climate cycles over the last century.
If you look at the studys of AMO you will find that it means 1-2 more or less storms per season. Anyway those mechanism been there in the past aswell. If scientist today tell us that storms will be more frequent beacuse of a warming world, im sure they took your argument into account.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

No increase in flooding ;)
Do you belive what he says or why do you post this?


You say stronger tropical storms and hurricanes being stronger and yet we have yet to see that. DO YOU BELIEVE THAT?
Quoting Levi32:
As to why Georgia hasn't been hit in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline.

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.
Quoting Levi32:


It's hard to prove nearly anything weather-wise from before the satellite era due to arguments about lack of data, and there are obviously going to be other things in play, but I think everyone will agree that the biggest effect on global tropical cyclones are easily the oceans.

As to why Georgia hasn't been hit in the 20th century...that's a hard one and is worth research. It could be just plain luck....I mean getting a hurricane to hit the Georgia coastline is amazingly hard given the shape of the coastline. Many storms have come pretty close, including hurricane Dora in 1964 that nailed Jacksonville, Florida.


I think it is largely luck, due to the topography of the GA coast, a storm pretty much has to hit it head-on. Its very hard to get a glancing blow, or a shallow landfall angle. Also, storms have a hard time hitting it if they have started recurvature.
Quoting atmoaggie:

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.


And having two 16 inch snowstorms in Washington D.C. in the same winter should only happen once every 625 years. Two 22 inch snowstorms in the same year in Philly should only happen once every 10000 years. Both of those events have happened this winter.

Lucky things like that happen.
Quoting Levi32:


And having two 16 inch snowstorms in Washington D.C. in the same winter should only happen once every 625 years. Two 22 inch snowstorms in the same year in Philly should only happen once every 10000 years. Both of those events have happened this year.

Lucky things like that happen.


You can through those statistics out the window. It a whole new journey.


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

Two objects reportedly crashed to the ground near Ulan Bator, the capital of Mongolia on Feb. 19, 2010. The first object, according to the report on the Mutual UFO Network (MUFON) witness database, weighed 10 kg, while the second larger object weighed approximately 2 tons. Other than that, there's not a lot of information available about the objects. But of course, UFOers are having a field day, calling the image, above, that accompanied the report a "leaked UFO crash" picture. But the object looks suspiciously like a rocket or jet engine, or perhaps a rocket nose cone. Objects that crash to Earth likely have a very terrestrial origin. We'll provide an update when any news becomes available. But if you are looking for a few laughs, check out the comments on Io9.
http://www.universetoday.com/2010/02/24/report-two-objects-crash-to-ground-in-mongolia/

Looks like part of a rocket to me. You can see the welding line on the top surface. Also, Mongolia is downwind of the main Russian launching site for satellites with a regular orbit.
Quoting Ossqss:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)

Just think of it this way... El Nino means less fires.
Over the last decade, NASA has launched a series of satellites to monitor the health of our planet. One such satellite -- the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) -- has provided a sustained, big-picture look at ice thickness at Earth's polar regions.

Now, after seven years in orbit and 15 laser-operation campaigns, ICESat has stopped collecting science data. The last of three lasers on the satellite's Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) ceased emitting light on Oct. 11, 2009. Attempts to restart the lasers have ended, and NASA is pursing options for satellite decommissioning.

Despite the end of ICESat's mission, NASA's observations of Earth's polar regions continue. Operation Ice Bridge began in 2009, becoming the largest airborne survey of Earth's polar ice ever flown. For the next five years, instruments on NASA aircraft will target areas of rapid change to yield an unprecedented 3-D view of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. The mission will bridge the gap in satellite data until the launch of ICESat-2, planned for 2015.

"Operation Ice Bridge is allowing us to get much higher resolution data over smaller, targeted regions," said Lora Koenig of NASA Goddard, and acting project scientist for the Ice Bridge mission.

Targeted information from aircraft combined with the broad and consistent coverage from satellites contribute to a more complete understanding of Earth's response to climate change, helping scientists make better predictions of what the future might hold.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icesat/notable-moments.html

2015 ...
Quoting Ossqss:


http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz/science/az_nino.php

Can someone run off El Niño, please!!!

The temp is dropping again into the mid 30's South of Tampa ---- aaaarrrrgggggg :)


Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...
Finally some good amount of snow heading into the northeast tomorrow.
Quoting TampaTom:


Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...

Or a prolific nado season aided by a La Nina (see 2007?)
Quoting TampaTom:


Of course, we can have a nice drought-plagued busy hurricane season breeding La Nina for ya...


Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)



Ok new blog up for us northeast peeps. Feel free to post your comments and radar/maps etc...
I found the recent paper Tropical cyclones and climate change to be fairly balanced, and from reading the paper the authors did not take an absolute stand on climate change, but analyzed from a tropical cyclone prospective what climate models are indicating. The Supplemental Material provided background for their conclusions.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)





Layering is awesome. Its amazing how many people don't know about layering.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Or a prolific nado season aided by a La Nina (see 2007?)

Make that 2008.
Quoting Ossqss:


Ok,Ok, so there are some benefits to it being cold here. I will just get another layer of clothes on again :)





:-)

'at's the spirit! Another orange tree branch on the fire!
2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.
Snow Blankets the Rocky Mountains

Snow cover stretched from South Dakota’s Mt. Rushmore to Arizona’s Grand Canyon in late February 2010, after snowstorms blanketed the Rocky Mountains. Mostly cloud-free skies allowed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite this largely unobstructed view of the western continental United States on February 23, 2010.

From northern New Mexico, the Rocky Mountains stretch northward through Colorado and Wyoming. Along the eastern face of this mountain range, rugged terrain gives way to prairie, including the flat topography of eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Mountains extend far westward, however, with snow cover accentuating mountain peaks all the way to Salt Lake City. The snow-free Grand Canyon snakes a serpentine path in the southwest, but the land surrounding that park is snow covered, as is much of northern Arizona and New Mexico.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=42797
Quoting jeffs713:


Layering is awesome. Its amazing how many people don't know about layering.


Growing up in Pittsburgh, we learned quickly to layer so that you could still move your arms. LoL

USA - 1
SWIS - 0
Quoting atmoaggie:

...given what we are used to seeing with storms that reach that latitude...rarely still going to the west by 30 N.

But that is just what we are used to seeing.

2 majors inside of a single decade and then nothing for over 100 years in that little stretch of shoreline would take an insane amount of luck without a change in the placement/strength of the AB high.


You might also consider variations in the Gulf Stream. Hurricanes tend to steer with the eastern wall especially when weak steering is present. Winter storms tend to explode and steer with the western wall. Both related to the direction of approach of the storm. There is also a decrease in landfalling storms where the distance between the coast and the Gulf Stream increase and a corresponding increase as the distance decreases heading north to North Carolina.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.

4-7 hurricane 5 for the atlantic - just my guess.
Swiss robbed of goal - review
USA robbed of goal - review

USA-1
SWI-0
Swiss not robbed of goal - review shows puck not in net.

USA robbed of goal - penalty called on goal...total BS

USA-1
SWI-0
Quoting CybrTeddy:
2010 Hurricane Season Predictions;

14-16 named.
5-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Majors.
0-1 Category 5.

Just the way I see it.



2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions
11-14 Named Storms
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
Quoting CycloneOz:
Swiss not robbed of goal - review shows puck not in net.

USA robbed of goal - penalty called on goal...total BS

USA-1
SWI-0


Where are you watching this 0z?. Olympics don't start on tv for another 9 minutes.
Quoting CycloneOz:
USA - 1
SWIS - 0


USA USA USA yes i live in the united states and im rooting for them not switzerland
Quoting Levi32:


Where are you watching this 0z?. Olympics don't start on tv for another 9 minutes.


nbc live
Quoting Levi32:


Where are you watching this 0z?. Olympics don't start on tv for another 9 minutes.


www.nbcolympics.com

Freaking awesome game so far! Best hockey match of the Olympics. Swiss goalie has been unreal.

From 1st Period:

Shot on goal! Hiller saved and REBOUND shot on goal REBOUND another shot SAVED Parissi SHOT and covered by Hiller.

My goodness!!!!!
Quoting Skepticall:


nbc live


I've got local NBC, CNBC, and MSNBC all on other shows until 5pm eastern.....:/ dangit.

*edit* nvm saw Oz's post. Thanks.
Quoting CycloneOz:


www.nbcolympics.com

Freaking awesome game so far! Best hockey match of the Olympics. Swiss goalie has been unreal.

From 1st Period:

Shot on goal! Hiller saved and REBOUND shot on goal REBOUND another shot SAVED Parissi SHOT and covered by Hiller.

My goodness!!!!!


its on tv here i feel bad for yall
CycloneOz Wannabe...(notice the bare legs! That's a no-no in hurricane conditions!)

I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)


But is driving a side-by-side Yamaha Rhino?



We're going to find out this year!
Russia vs. Canada should be a good game also.
Quoting CycloneOz:


But is driving a side-by-side Yamaha Rhino?

We're going to find out this year!


Don't know what that is. Is that kinda like what Batman and Robin rode?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I would assume riding a bike in a hurricane is a no-no also! :)

Might be kinda fun in a large counter clockwise circle...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Don't know what that is. Is that kinda like what Batman and Robin rode?


I own one. I figure since it's low profile, it might do well in a minimal Category storm.

I will not take it out in a Cat 3 or above. I'll chain it down and then drive it to get aftermath footage.
Gotcha
As I mentioned before, just a gut feeling. Have a feeling you are going to be very busy this season.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As I mentioned before, just a gut feeling. Have a feeling you are going to be very busy this season.


Man, after "vacationing" in Bermuda and Cabo San Lucas last year, I hope so.

Changing my camera gear over to the new GoPro is really going to have a dramatic impact on how mobile I can be in a storm.

This year could be very interesting for everyone.
Swiss goal is empty.
USA!USA!USA!USA!USA!
Goal USA!!
The USA Hockey Team now advances to the semi-finals of the 2010 Olympics.
Quoting CycloneOz:
USA!USA!USA!USA!USA!


FINAL FOUR!!!!!! ALL YOU USA HATERS OUT THERE WATCH OUT!!!!!
As for Georgia major hurricanes, there were 6 undisputed major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s, and possibly an 7th in 1881. Several of these were traveling WNW or west when they hit Georgia. If we were writing a book of hurricane risk 100 years ago, we would have concluded that Georgia has almost as high a risk for major hurricane landfalls as any state--we received more major hurricane landfalls per mile than South or North Carolina in the 1800s. During the 1700s, the Georgia coast was quiet (after 1736 when colonies were established throughout the Georgia coast. The cause of the high rate of major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s has not been explained.

I did a blog series on Georgia major hurricanes last September and October, which focused on the majors of 1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1881, 1893 and 1898. The number of Cat 1 and 2 hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s was also much greater than in the 1900s.
R.I.P. ICESat..


1235 PM HAIL PALM CITY 27.17N 80.27W
02/24/2010 E1.50 INCH MARTIN FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 INJ *** TWO GOLFERS INJURED BY HAIL AND BLEEDING
FROM HEAD HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

JRC
Another line of heavy storms heading our way:

The hurricanes of 1804, 1854 and 1893 travelled NNW to hit Georgia nearly paralleling the coast of Florida. They did have more of a westerly component than most hurricanes of the 20th century, which were so parallel that they missed us. The other major hurricanes travelled WNW or due west to hit Georgia.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As for Georgia major hurricanes, there were 6 undisputed major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s, and possibly an 7th in 1881. Several of these were traveling WNW or west when they hit Georgia. If we were writing a book of hurricane risk 100 years ago, we would have concluded that Georgia has almost as high a risk for major hurricane landfalls as any state--we received more major hurricane landfalls per mile than South or North Carolina in the 1800s. During the 1700s, the Georgia coast was quiet (after 1736 when colonies were established throughout the Georgia coast. The cause of the high rate of major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s has not been explained.

I did a blog series on Georgia major hurricanes last September and October, which focused on the majors of 1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1881, 1893 and 1898. The number of Cat 1 and 2 hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s was also much greater than in the 1900s.


Honestly I think SSI knows what he is talking about here.
hello everyone I have been reading off and on in the weather underground and Dr.Masters blog since 1998 and this is my first post. I know you guys have been talking about global warming but here is an invention that should keep us humans in check reducing our reliance on the fossil-fuel powered electricity grid for energy. what do you guys think of this invention.LinkLinkLink
Quoting Skyepony:
R.I.P. ICESat..


1235 PM HAIL PALM CITY 27.17N 80.27W
02/24/2010 E1.50 INCH MARTIN FL EMERGENCY MNGR

*** 2 INJ *** TWO GOLFERS INJURED BY HAIL AND BLEEDING
FROM HEAD HAIL SIZE ESTIMATED.


&&

$$

JRC

Why were two golfers outside in a hail storm?
Quoting gustavcane:
hello everyone I have been reading off and on in the weather underground and Dr.Masters blog since 1998 and this is my first post. I know you guys have been talking about global warming but here is an invention that should keep us humans in check reducing our reliance on the fossil-fuel powered electricity grid for energy. what do you guys think of this invention.LinkLinkLink

Needs to come down in price. Get it into the $3-5k range, and then it can be built into homes and small businesses. Also, it still uses non-renewable fossil fuel energy - just has less emissions.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
As for Georgia major hurricanes, there were 6 undisputed major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s, and possibly an 7th in 1881. Several of these were traveling WNW or west when they hit Georgia. If we were writing a book of hurricane risk 100 years ago, we would have concluded that Georgia has almost as high a risk for major hurricane landfalls as any state--we received more major hurricane landfalls per mile than South or North Carolina in the 1800s. During the 1700s, the Georgia coast was quiet (after 1736 when colonies were established throughout the Georgia coast. The cause of the high rate of major hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s has not been explained.

I did a blog series on Georgia major hurricanes last September and October, which focused on the majors of 1804, 1813, 1824, 1854, 1881, 1893 and 1898. The number of Cat 1 and 2 hurricane landfalls in Georgia in the 1800s was also much greater than in the 1900s.

Ahh, I knew you would be able to shed more on that, but had forgotten your post.

Seems like more than luck.

To what would you attribute the seemingly normal activity for a SE state's coast to nearly nothing at all in the 1900s?
The Georgia major hurricane series
Introduction Link

1804 Link

1813 Link

1824Link

1825-1853 Link

1854 Link

1855-1880, including the "Central America" disaster of 1857 and the triple disaster of 1871. Link

1881 Link

1893 Link
Severe T.S Watch upgraded to Warning for portions of so. Fla. Also, independent reports of funnel clouds.
CycloneOz, how does a USA-intellectual talk about the weather?
Quoting jeffs713:

Needs to come down in price. Get it into the $3-5k range, and then it can be built into homes and small businesses. Also, it still uses non-renewable fossil fuel energy - just has less emissions.
yes, 3k is the price point that they want when they sell a brick sized device that he claimed could power a house. Bloom says that the boxes it has been trialling with customers - including Coca Cola, eBay; Google and Walmart - have already produced more than 11 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity, with CO2 reductions estimated at 14 million pounds. This is, according to the company, the equivalent of powering approximately 1,000 American homes for a year and planting one million trees.
The double hurricane hit of 1898: Link
Double tropical cyclone hit of October 1947, concluding the series. Link I have the Dora and David entries somewhere, but Dora made landfall in FL, and David was not anywhere near a major when it hit Georgia.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The double hurricane hit of 1898: Link

Data issues aside, one thing I see is that the hurricane tracks aren't that of slow-movers with a meandering track common with weak steering. These seem to come into the GA coast with a clear steering trajectory...few wild turns (except that loop-dee-loop one)...and a decent forward speed (at least once they are approaching).
atmoaggie, I have no idea. It seems as if the hurricane tracks on the Atlantic coast were shifted south and west during the 1800s--the northern half of the Florida east coast had somewhat higher hurricane activity than in the 1900s, but much lower than the Georgia coast.
Quoting jeffs713:

Why were two golfers outside in a hail storm?


These have been brief, small & nonthreatening at 1st glance.. Interesting day~ there's been reports of hail on the beach & multiple trees down, a few tornado vorticys on radar.
Quoting Skyepony:


These have been brief, small & nonthreatening at 1st glance.. Interesting day~ there's been reports of hail on the beach & multiple trees down, a few tornado vorticys on radar.


True. It still makes me wonder, though. Golfers should be one of the first people to get inside/under cover when a storm of any size (especially in FL) is threatening. Golf clubs tend to work as excellent lightning rods, too.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
atmoaggie, I have no idea. It seems as if the hurricane tracks on the Atlantic coast were shifted south and west during the 1800s--the northern half of the Florida east coast had somewhat higher hurricane activity than in the 1900s, but much lower than the Georgia coast.

from your last posted blog: "The first recon flight into the storm made it into a ragged eye on the morning of October 11, 1947, and shortly afterward, discovered it was not alone. A Pan Am flight to Havana entered the eye, and some rather agitated radio communication began. "Whiskey Tango Foxtrot are you doing here!" is the substance of the beginning of this communications--and this event had some reprecussions. The Pan Am pilots had no idea they were in a hurricane. This event resulted in improved communications between the National Weather Service and airlines. Pan Am was going to be severely fined, but it turned out that there was no regulation against civilian airliners flying into the eyes of hurricanes, which was swiftly remedied. Some passengers sued, but since there were no injuries to the passengers, and the flight arrived on time, the lawsuits were ultimately dismissed."

Love it. Pan Am through the eye, no injuries, get there on time, and sue. (They would win that today)
Quoting jeffs713:


True. It still makes me wonder, though. Golfers should be one of the first people to get inside/under cover when a storm of any size (especially in FL) is threatening. Golf clubs tend to work as excellent lightning rods, too.


Not sure if you lived here a while ago i was driving down kuykendahl in a storm and 2 golfers at windrose golf club got struck by lightning i swear i saw the lightning bolt because it lasted a little longer than a normal one.
Ok... wth.

12Z GFS: No snow for the state of Georgia on March 2-3

18Z GFS: 14 inches of snow for east GA on March 2-3

WOW should I even take this run into the slightest bit of consideration??
Quoting Fernhout:
CycloneOz, how does a USA-intellectual talk about the weather?


Is there a punch-line?... because I'm already laughing reading the question...and why was the question posed to Cyclone Oz, LOL!

I believe Grothar will be home in Florida soon, and as the blog "sage" (I stole that descripton from another blogger, btw) the question should be posed to him!!

Still chuckling here...
Good afternoon guys...so how would you rank the hurricane seasons of the first decade of the 21st Century?

In my opinion:

05 > 04 > 08 > 03 > 07 > 01 > 00 > 02 > 06 > 09
Quoting CycloneOz:


But is driving a side-by-side Yamaha Rhino?



We're going to find out this year!


Oz, I see you in one of these soon :)

High Speed Tracked Amphibian
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Good afternoon guys...so how would you rank the hurricane seasons of the first decade of the 21st Century?

In my opinion:

05 > 04 > 08 > 03 > 07 > 01 > 00 > 02 > 06 > 09


Looks about right to me, but I'm no expert...just worked post-disasters since '05. (Also not a guy but I didn't think you'd mind that part.)

Interesting idea to make this list...
Quoting Ossqss:


Oz, I see you in one of these soon :)

High Speed Tracked Amphibian


Oh...that's pretty neat.

Yeah...no doubt the next extreme vehicle will have tracks.

Driving the Rhino around with debris full of nails? Hint: Buy Fix-O-Flat stock!
Here is comes...heavy rain and a lot of wind.
237. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Ok... wth.

12Z GFS: No snow for the state of Georgia on March 2-3

18Z GFS: 14 inches of snow for east GA on March 2-3

WOW should I even take this run into the slightest bit of consideration??


I think the 12Z GFS was a bad run. 18Z GFS is back in line....

Quoting Fernhout:
CycloneOz, how does a USA-intellectual talk about the weather?


a USA intellectual?

I'm more like a displaced Lower Alabama redneck that would be happy with a beer in one hand and a stock car steering wheel in the other.

Hurricane chasing saved me from all that intellectual stuff.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Oh...that's pretty neat.

Yeah...no doubt the next extreme vehicle will have tracks.

Driving the Rhino around with debris full of nails? Hint: Buy Fix-O-Flat stock!


Just fillem with foam like the construction equipment :)



L8R
Hi AIM!
Quoting Ossqss:


Just fillem with foam like the construction equipment :)



L8R


Dude...have you just given me a "project of the month"?
Strange how Boston will get rain while NYC and Long Island will get pounded with heavy snow during Thursday-Fridays mammoth of a storm lol!

Looks like an entity will bomb-out in the GOM early next week!Let's see if this approaches anywhere near the 93" superstorm...
Quoting IKE:


I think the 12Z GFS was a bad run. 18Z GFS is back in line....



Really? That's reassuring to know there's still a snow chance. It's also reassuring to know that the GFS predicted the TX snow this far out pretty accurately.

I really hope you guys get snow though, Ike. We already got our 2 inches two weeks ago. Would rather it go farther south of us.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Dude...have you just given me a "project of the month"?


do it! lol
Quoting CycloneOz:


Dude...have you just given me a "project of the month"?


Just one of many providers. There are advantages and disadvantages.. Gotta run :)

http://www.arnconet.com/flatproofing/ultralite.htm
Quoting IKE:


I think the 12Z GFS was a bad run. 18Z GFS is back in line....

12Z SUFFERED FAULT SEGMENTATION ERROR
247. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
12Z SUFFERED FAULT SEGMENTATION ERROR


LOL....what does that mean? Bad run?


HERE IS A BETTER RUN
Quoting gustavcane:
hello everyone I have been reading off and on in the weather underground and Dr.Masters blog since 1998 and this is my first post. I know you guys have been talking about global warming but here is an invention that should keep us humans in check reducing our reliance on the fossil-fuel powered electricity grid for energy. what do you guys think of this invention.LinkLinkLink

Sounds intresting but still needs fuel. Currently i have a mix of energy with a lot of renewables.
Quoting weatherbro:
Strange how Boston will get rain while NYC and Long Island will get pounded with heavy snow during Thursday-Fridays mammoth of a storm lol!

Looks like an entity will bomb-out in the GOM early next week!Let's see if this approaches anywhere near the 93" superstorm...


Especially since true arctic air will be funneling southwards as the models consistantly show for next week.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
12Z SUFFERED FAULT SEGMENTATION ERROR

Where you see that?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

SEG Fault usually means termination, but the status site I linked only shows trouble with the ensemble runs.
Quoting IKE:


LOL....what does that mean? Bad run?

Usually array-associated issues...such as asking a program for 1000 point in an array only 999 pieces long. (oversimplified)
...or I could get a "track kit" for the Rhino.

Quoting Skepticall:


Global warming apologists seek to blame anything and everything on global warming, but the assertion that global warming is causing more blizzards and extreme weather events simply does not stand up under objective analysis.

My favorite part of this.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Russia vs. Canada should be a good game also.

We will have that on here live. Did you see the big illegal hit in the Slovakia v Norway match?
Huh. A Nature article from the group...all sides of the issue:
Thomas R. Knutson , John L. McBride , Johnny Chan , Kerry Emanuel , Greg Holland , Chris Landsea , Isaac Held , James P. Kossin , A. K. Srivastava & Masato Sugi

"Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate - and if so, how - has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies."

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo779.pdf

So, we cannot yet figure any substantial trend signal of frequency, intensity, size, etc. and we surely cannot attribute a non-significant trend to anything (But I need to find a way to get the full text...not paying nature).

More, with analysis: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/updated-wmo-consensus-perspective-on.html
Quoting Skepticall:


FINAL FOUR!!!!!! ALL YOU USA HATERS OUT THERE WATCH OUT!!!!!

I just seen the highlights of that game. Canadian supporters where cheering for the Swiss, do the Canadian's don't like the American's. Bad neighbours????
GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery



These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.
One more question. About the snow. Is it usual for NCEP and TwisterData to be so contradictory? For the 18Z run of the GFS, NCEP shows just rain going over us, yet TwisterData shows 3 inches of accumulated snow.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just seen the highlights of that game. Canadian supporters where cheering for the Swiss, do the Canadian's don't like the American's. Bad neighbours????


They just still can't get over the outcome of the US vs Canada game, haha
Accuweather is calling this upcoming snowstorm for the Northeast a "snow-hurricane": wouldnt it be funny if this storm turned out to be a bust like the March 2001 snowstorm lol
All that needs to be said of global warming, is that time will expose all the lies. The scientific community will get their butt kicked once again because of their arrogance, of course, when they finally have to admit global warming doesn't exist, they'll just pretend as if all their end of humanity propaganda never existed. Of course, they never learn, so when global warming gets old, they'll just come up with another scam as always.

Reminds me of teenagers and fashion trends, "you MUST WEAR YOUR CLOTHES THIS WAY" for 10 years.

Then they realize its a retarded fad, act as if it never happened, but move onto the nest dumb fad to flip out over.


The more "intellectual" people try to be come, the more arrogant, and ultimately dumb and blind they become.

thats why I stay out of those stupid debates, because it really amounts to nothing.

Just live life, being a normal average human, and be happy with what you got
267. eddye
wat can se fl expect from that thing next week
Communicating Climate Change

Posted on Dec 21, 2009 09:32:46 AM | NASA's Earth Science News Team |


Rigor. Not rigor mortis.

Those are two basic tenets of talking to the public about global warming, offered by Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. He spoke at a Thursday morning session on Ccommunicating climate at the American Geophysical Union's fall meeting in San Francisco.

The climate debate as carried out on cable news, over dinner tables and at the office these days is anything but dead. Serreze and a handful of other presenters at the session encouraged scientists to inject their scientific knowledge into this debate, especially at this critical moment for policy development to address climate change impacts. But, Serreze gently prodded, be sure to bring the scientific rigor, while leaving the calcified sciencese in the lab.

In past years a session like this might not have even appeared on the AGU schedule. No data-dense graphs were shown, no recent breakthroughs discussed. But its presence on the agenda and a strong attendance say something about the pitch and significance of the public climate debate right now.

Michael Mann, a Penn State climate scientist respected worldwide who, with colleagues, produced the now-famous hockey stick graph depicting recent drastic temperature changes, led off the session. Mann (pictured) has become a target of climate change deniers. Some of his personal emails were among those aired after hackers stole them off a computer server at the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit in England recently.

Mann said scientists for too long have been content to focus on their science and let any public debate of it play out on its own. He contends this strategy isnt enough anymore, as a well-funded disinformation effort is still hard at work to discredit climate science and confuse the public.

We've got to be out there, making the case, Mann said.These allegations are a distraction and are specious. We have to say that and at the same time use the opportunity to make the positive case.

The media alone cannot be expected to adequately defend the science and the scientists. It's not their job. Our job is to make sure scientific truth is represented, Mann said.

-- Patrick Lynch, NASA's Earth Science News Team
One can find a local forecast for anywhere in Fla next week by using the SEARCH box at the top of this and every wunderground page.
Then they realize its a retarded fad, act as if it never happened, but move onto the nest dumb fad to flip out over.
The more "intellectual" people try to be come, the more arrogant, and ultimately dumb and blind they become.

All I can say is....really no words.
727
fxus62 kmlb 241909
afdmlb




Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
209 PM EST Wednesday Feb 24 2010



Discussion...


..cold wind chills overnight toward daybreak Thursday...
..Several systems to affect the area next 7 days and bring a
variety of weather--isolated severe storms/cold/windy/wet/dry...


Current...radars detecting a band of storms from Daytona Beach to
Tampa Bay and moving east northeast at 20 to 25 miles per hour. More storms
were moving quickly across the Treasure Coast between Sebastian and
Jupiter inlets. Strong storms with wind gusts over 55 miles per hour and hail
were being reported over southern areas.


Tonight-Thu...deepening low pressure system will move quickly
across central Florida the next 6 to 12 hours with the cold front
clearing Okeechobee and Martin counties after midnight. Strong
high pressure building in behind the front will bring with it a
very dry air mass along with very strong gusty northwest winds.
Breezy to windy conditions starting late overnight and through
Thursday before the winds diminish. High temperatures Thursday
will be middle 50s to low 60s as the cooler air mass works its way
down the center of the state.


Thursday night-Friday night...strong low pressure center will cut off near
the middle Atlantic and northeast U.S. Coast. This will slow the
advance of high pressure ridge so expect some boundary layer flow
to be occurring Thursday night-Friday morning. Latest MOS guidance has
some freezing temperatures in the north so will go with a freeze
watch across lake and interior Volusia. Think that this will
primarily be in wind protected locations...but with the very low
dew points...temperatures in these normal cold spots could go even lower
than guidance indicates. Elsewhere...clear and much cooler than
normal with lows in the Lower/Middle 30s.


Dry and cool conditions linger into Friday with only a slight
improvement in afternoon maxes reaching the low to middle 60s. Though
winds will be noticeably lower.


Friday night does not look as cold since there should be some
middle/high clouds reaching the area ahead of next weather system.
Some colder pockets may have middle 30s but otherwise expect upper
30s to lower 40s.


Sat-Tuesday (modified previous discussion)...the next weather system
is forecast to move rapidly across the Gulf and South Florida
Saturday and produce a quick shot of rain. Have raised probability of precipitation to 30%
north and 40% central/south. Amounts look pretty low north of
Orlando...0.1" or less...but should see 0.25-0.50" amounts across
the south...and locally higher along and just to the north of where
the surface low tracks. The atmosphere will have little time to
recover so deep convection (thunder) is not expected at this time.
Cool dry conditions return Sunday and Monday. A more significant
storm system is prognosticated by both GFS and European model (ecmwf) to affect the area
Monday night or Tuesday. This system looks to have quite a bit of
upper support and strong wind fields. Have raised probability of precipitation to 40% Tuesday
and added thunder to the south half. This system may have the
potential to produce strong to severe storms across portions of
central Florida if sufficient instability can return.


&&


Aviation...occasional IFR/LIFR conditions vc of storms and showers
through 00z. MVFR ceilings with strong low level winds 03z to 08z.
VFR after 08z.


&&


Marine...Small Craft Advisory for all marine zones through 10 PM.
Gale Warning from 10 PM to 1 PM as strong northwest winds move
through behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory for all areas
after 18z Thursday.


Thursday night-Fri...winds/seas should start diminishing as high
pressure ridge noses in from the west...but with the nearly
stationary low pressure center over the northeast U.S. The
conditions over the open Atlantic may remain quite poor.


Weekend...the latest GFS indicates a weaker surface low moving
across the area and therefore the pre and Post frontal winds are
not forecast to be as strong. Have not made changes to the
forecast yet as we need to see if this trend is maintained.


&&


Fire weather...red flag warning Thursday due to long periods of
relative humidity values below 35 percent and strong 20 foot wind.


Friday...a long duration of low relative humidity is expected again but winds will
be less.


Weekend...not expecting any low relative humidity Sat as there will be some
moistening associated with the next weather system. With a weaker
low pressure system prognosticated to move by Sat night...the cold
advection on Sunday may be less than earlier forecast and latest
guidance indicates low relative humidity possibilities again.

Good evening,

Severe WX possibilities on the increase for Tuesday for the FL Peninsula. Will definitely be bare watching as we get into the weekend, but so far GFS and ECMWF are in a pretty good agreement with a LLJ of at least 55KTS and a pretty decent shear could lead to a tornado outbreak. I'm currently compromising between the ECMWF and GFS with a FROPA @ around 18Z Tuesday.

ECMWF:



GFS:

273. unf97
Good evening everyone!

It is still early and the model runs can change before the big event next week with the GOM Low. However, the trend by the models thus far has been to "bomb" this feature as it enters the Eastern GOM and across North Central FL on Tuesday. GFS and ECMWF differ some with the track, with the ECMWF being the one farther north with the track.

If the system next week intensifies to the level as the models are suggesting, folks we may be seeing old man winter going out with a tremendous bang to begin March. The models are trending to the fact that sufficent polar air mass from Canada will be drawn southward into the SECONUS as the Low intensifies on Tuesday. GFS at the current time on their snow depth map forecast for March 2-3 shows accumulautions ranging from 2-6 inches along the coastal plain and most interior areas from GA to NC. GFS is also showing a "bullseye" of 12-14 inches in interior Eastern GA.

Again, this is 5 days or so out from the event and this will possibly change. However, given the fact that we have seen several significant winter storms this season, and the fact that the models for the most part has performed well with these systems this winter, this situation is looking more serious by the day.

Suffice to say, we could very well by this time next week be summarizing about two "bombs" which will have made huge impacts on the U.S. East Coast. The first one, now developing and will impact the NE US later Thursday-Friday, and the one for next week for the Deep South.

We have some very intersing days ahead folks. The winter of 2009 -2010 has been a fascinating one indeed and the final chapter of it looks to be taking shape over these next 10-12 days.
Quoting troy1993:
Accuweather is calling this upcoming snowstorm for the Northeast a "snow-hurricane": wouldnt it be funny if this storm turned out to be a bust like the March 2001 snowstorm lol


This is far from a bust, it's going to be historic for a lot of places. How often do you see an upper low cut off from all 3 branches of the jetstream stall out over New England? This storm will be over New England pretty much until it dies. Multiple feet of snow are in store for the mountains of northern New England with this one.
384
fxus64 klix 242130
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
330 PM CST Wednesday Feb 24 2010


Short term...
only real issues for tonight is min temperatures at or below
freezing once again for much of the area except those thermally
influenced by warmer water temperatures. Guidance has come in a
couple of degrees warmer than previous runs but still showing middle
to upper 20s over much of the area and 30-34 south of and away
from tidal lakes. Thursday should be a mild day with upper 50s and
mostly sunny skies. Moderation of air mass will keep night time
lows above freezing except for some localized River Valley
drainage cooling in southeast MS.


Long term...
a short-wave trough drops out of northern branch into lower
Mississippi Valley and brings a clipper type front through the
area Friday night. This may resemble last night's episode with
some liquid precipitation possibly mixing with flurries on the
northern fringes before ending before daybreak Saturday. Mention
of such will be left out of package due to uncertainties and
minimal impact concerns. Larger issue in forecast still remains
the potential for a significant storm system in the next Monday
night/Tuesday time frame. Both jet branches appear to come into
phase for large amplitude troughing over the deep south to support
strong cyclogenesis over or very near the Gulf. Depending on
actual track of developed surface low...this could be a winter
weather situation or a cold rain situation. GFS shows a much
farther south track which may limit moisture over land. The European model (ecmwf)
and Canadian models show a better snow scenario with strong
isentropic lift and deformation banding for a potential big snow
event. Given model uncertainties this far out...will leave as rain
at this time and monitor model trends into the weekend before
committing to winter precipitation. Suffice to say...a period of
inclement weather during the Monday night-Tuesday time frame does
appear certain.

Quoting unf97:
Good evening everyone!

It is still early and the model runs can change before the big event next week with the GOM Low. However, the trend by the models thus far has been to "bomb" this feature as it enters the Eastern GOM and across North Central FL on Tuesday. GFS and ECMWF differ some with the track, with the ECMWF being the one farther north with the track.

If the system next week intensifies to the level as the models are suggesting, folks we may be seeing old man winter going out with a tremendous bang to begin March. The models are trending to the fact that sufficent polar air mass from Canada will be drawn southward into the SECONUS as the Low intensifies on Tuesday. GFS at the current time on their snow depth map forecast for March 2-3 shows accumulautions ranging from 2-6 inches along the coastal plain and most interior areas from GA to NC. GFS is also showing a "bullseye" of 12-14 inches in interior Eastern GA.

Again, this is 5 days or so out from the event and this will possibly change. However, given the fact that we have seen several significant winter storms this season, and the fact that the models for the most part has performed well with these systems this winter, this situation is looking more serious by the day.

Suffice to say, we could very well by this time next week be summarizing about two "bombs" which will have made huge impacts on the U.S. East Coast. The first one, now developing and will impact the NE US later Thursday-Friday, and the one for next week for the Deep South.

We have some very intersing days ahead folks. The winter of 2009 -2010 has been a fascinating one indeed and the final chapter of it looks to be taking shape over these next 10-12 days.


Hehe... couldn't agree with you more... this Winter sure has been quite a site for a good majority of the US.
Note the wording of "Strong Cyclogenesis" in the NOLA discussion

Larger issue in forecast still remains
the potential for a significant storm system in the next Monday
night/Tuesday time frame. Both jet branches appear to come into
phase for large amplitude troughing over the deep south to support
strong cyclogenesis over or very near the Gulf.


This is strange...

Check out the US full resolution radar on NWS


What are those things streaking east to west across the country?? center the loop on Arkansas.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Huh. A Nature article from the group...all sides of the issue:
Thomas R. Knutson , John L. McBride , Johnny Chan , Kerry Emanuel , Greg Holland , Chris Landsea , Isaac Held , James P. Kossin , A. K. Srivastava & Masato Sugi

"Whether the characteristics of tropical cyclones have changed or will change in a warming climate - and if so, how - has been the subject of considerable investigation, often with conflicting results. Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 2-11% by 2100. Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6–34%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre. For all cyclone parameters, projected changes for individual basins show large variations between different modelling studies."

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo779.pdf

So, we cannot yet figure any substantial trend signal of frequency, intensity, size, etc. and we surely cannot attribute a non-significant trend to anything (But I need to find a way to get the full text...not paying nature).

More, with analysis: http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/02/updated-wmo-consensus-perspective-on.html


Full text link in post #172
Quoting AussieStorm:

I just seen the highlights of that game. Canadian supporters where cheering for the Swiss, do the Canadian's don't like the American's. Bad neighbours????


They are notorious for rooting for the underdog.
Quoting sullivanweather:
This is strange...

Check out the US full resolution radar on NWS


What are those things streaking east to west across the country?? center the loop on Arkansas.


High Altitude contrails showing up in the Dry Air Aloft seems.

Cept they all go east to west,so maybe its a animation error or "Noise"
Quoting sullivanweather:
This is strange...

Check out the US full resolution radar on NWS


What are those things streaking east to west across the country?? center the loop on Arkansas.


Invasion of the body snatchers? :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


They are notorious for rooting for the underdog.

I thought it was a love-hate relationship. Like the one we have with England.
Quoting jeffs713:


True. It still makes me wonder, though. Golfers should be one of the first people to get inside/under cover when a storm of any size (especially in FL) is threatening. Golf clubs tend to work as excellent lightning rods, too.


That was the biggest hail reported in ECFL today. Bet they won't wait around to see how big it is next time. Hail that big the sky should have been green.

There was 60mph winds in Port ST Lucie.

Quoting Patrap:


High Altitude contrails showing up in the Dry Air Aloft seems.

except they all go east to west,so maybe its a animation error or "Noise"

Could it be because they are flying into the wind aloft? looks like the weather is moving west to east so I am guessing the wind aloft is also moving west to east. But I did notice in northern Texas there is a contrail going SW to NE.
Hiya Patrap!

Yeah, I did a little self-investigating. They are a small sliver of radar beam glitches extending to the wsw of the radar site.

It was just odd as they were all glitching in sequence...looked like a meteor storm.
Russia V Canada, who will win?

..Hiya sullivanweather,

.."Radar Love"..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Russia V Canada, who will win?


1-0 Canada
Quoting sullivanweather:
Hiya Patrap!

Yeah, I did a little self-investigating. They are a small sliver of radar beam glitches extending to the wsw of the radar site.

It was just odd as they were all glitching in sequence...looked like a meteor storm.

interesting.
I've got some really good news about my Minox DPM-3 Audio Recorder.

As you may realize, you do not have good video unless you have good audio. Since my new GoPro HD Hero cameras do not have good audio when encased in their waterproof housings, I have to go a different route with gathering audio.

That's where the DPM-3 comes in. And here's the GOOD NEWS about it. My biggest worry about an external digital audio recorder is that something will "bump" the record button and turn off the recording. While I'm going about my business thinking that audio is being recorded, I'll find later after the event that it stopped at some point. THIS CAN BE DEVASTATINGLY DISAPPOINTING!!!

But the DPM-3 has a "hold" slide that locks in place! So even if I'm being man-handled by a hurricane, the recording will not stop!

I'm very happy at this moment. I'm practically ready for hurricane season today, and it's still only February!

For those of you in areas that might be affected by severe tropical weather, take my example and put it to your own use. PREPARE NOW...while you have time and can organize.
A storm is nigh....
Quoting AussieStorm:

1-0 Canada


Now 3-1 Canada not even 15 minutes into the game lol.
Go Canada! Would love to see a rematch!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Go Canada! Would love to see a rematch!


Indeed!
Quoting Levi32:


Now 3-1 Canada not even 15 minutes into the game lol.

4 - 1 Canada
Quoting sullivanweather:
This is strange...

Check out the US full resolution radar on NWS


What are those things streaking east to west across the country?? center the loop on Arkansas.


If you stare at it long enough all the tips point to a radar, more easily picked out as areas of ground clutter. Looking at a few Nexrads you can see a frame that corresponds to the time with a thin cone all pointing in that direction. Looks to sweep from east to west, one bad frame a radar.. with the setting sun.. freaky looking.
If I were the Russian team…I’d turn in my immigration papers now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
If I were the Russian team.... I'd turn in my immigration papers now.

roflmho
Quoting Patrap:
..Hiya sullivanweather,

.."Radar Love"..


golden earring was originally called the tornados

looks like the west coast has a good size system coming in
5 - 1 Canada
Putin is getting PO'D!
Quoting AussieStorm:
5 - 1 Canada

6 - 1
Is there a mercy rule in Ice Hockey?
Quoting AussieStorm:

6 - 1
Is there a mercy rule in Ice Hockey?

6 - 2 Canada
Quoting Patrap:
LOL..the data dont lie Jed baby..



Absolutely correct, Patrap. An accurate data set doesn't lie.

Something changed in 1998. Pretty flat before and pretty flat after. All years are at or below 1997 before and all are at or above after. A new "normal" happened in a single year.

Based on 1979-1997 sat temps, and I also took a peek at some of the GISS temp data for kicks and will be doing a full blog on that, I predict this new normal should be around until 2019, based on initial analysis back to 1957, and then a new "normal" materializes. Up or down.

More detailed blog entry to follow.

18Z GFSRUN SURFACE MAP @30HRS, FR 2/26/10 00Z
977MB BOMB JUST S OF LI, NY:

Down to DEFCON 4.
Fire weather...red flag warning Thursday due to long periods of
relative humidity values below 35 percent and strong 20 foot wind.


Dewpoints across ecentral Florida are expected to bottom out in the single digits tomorrow. With temps in the mid-upper 50's, relative humidities could also go to the aughts(though more likely around 10-15%).

However due to recent rains, I seriously doubt it'll be a problem.

The criteria should be as 25% or lower(not 35%-) for a watch or warning like pretty much every other state(I think Texas also has this dilemma).
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Down to DEFCON 4.




:)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Down to DEFCON 4.

Geoffrey Hill reciting "The Storm"



(Geoff, I was just fooling around with your name and you weather, and found this ... I don't think the poet is talking about weather, though, but a woman!?! Need to find a transcript...)

From poemhunter.com:

Regarding both his style and subject, Hill is often described as a "difficult" poet. He makes circumspect use of traditional rhetoric (as well as that of modernism), but he also transcribes the idioms of public life, such as those of television, political sloganeering, and punditry. Hill has been consistently drawn to morally problematic and violent episodes in British and European history, though it should be noted that his accounts of landscape (especially that of his native Worcestershire) are as intense as his encounters with history. (He has written perhaps the most important poetic responses to the Holocaust in English, 'Two Formal Elegies', 'September Song' and 'Ovid in the Third Reich'.) In an interview in The Paris Review (2000), which published Hill's early poem 'Genesis' when he was still at Oxford, Hill defended the right of poets to difficulty as a form of resistance to the demeaning simplifications imposed by 'maestros of the world'. Hill also argued that to be difficult is to be democratic, equating the demand for simplicity with the demands of tyrants.
Anyone who is confused with the recent media coverage should read

Close Encounters of the Absurd Kind
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/close-encounters-of-the-absurd-kind/#comment- 162809


:)
The Climate Change debate is definitely Theatre of the Absurd; no matter where one stands!

"Current National Threat Level is elevated
The threat level in the airline sector is High or Orange..."
Good evening.
The temp. in Trinidad peaked at 96.8 F at the airport today.
I believe that there has never been a hotter day here.
Anyone who missed Keith Olbermann's Special Comment On Health Care Reform tonight...should listen to it when it is released online. Forget Republican or Democrat...just listen.
Post #315

Where is the thermometer and what has been built around it from the time it was installed?
And is the reading of temp automatic or from human whims?

Important questions don't you think given recent temp. reading simple mistakes.
POTTERY!!!

Joining the discussion, re Theatre of the Climate of the Absurd, aka Defcon 5?
BTW
#317 kinda a rhetorical question.

Just Spathy being Spathy.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Anyone who missed Keith Olbermann's Special Comment On Health Care Reform tonight...should listen to it when it is released online. Forget Republican or Democrat...just listen.

Did you see the pome I dedicated to you, #311?
Pleez 'splain it to me if you can make it out, lol!
Quoting Seastep:


Absolutely correct, Patrap. An accurate data set doesn't lie.

Something changed in 1998. Pretty flat before and pretty flat after. All years are at or below 1997 before and all are at or above after. A new "normal" happened in a single year.

Based on 1979-1997 sat temps, and I also took a peak at some of the GISS temp data for kicks and will be doing a full blog on that, I predict this new normal should be around until 2019, based on initial analysis back to 1957, and then a new "normal" materializes. Up or down.

More detailed blog entry to follow.



If you do that same horizontal line TRICK for 2010 onward, then we are already at a spot that would be almost two jumps above the first one you made to represent the new "normal" from 1998 onward, in order to hide the increase.
A big flare-up is developing in the Caribbean. It just brushed over the Cayman Islands, and is now heading for Jamaica, then if it makes past then it will move on to Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and into the open Atlantic. It actually has some chance to develop possibly into a subtropical or extratropical storm given the 26C waters, and it could also move on to become a winter storm for Europe like the other storm that's developing northeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Quoting Bordonaro:
18Z GFSRUN SURFACE MAP @30HRS, FR 2/26/10 00Z
977MB BOMB JUST S OF LI, NY:



It looks like this storm will give us about 25 cm of snow within 72 hours. However the last major storm we had was out in Nova Scotia when the snowsqualls hit and while it was only predicted to drop 10 cm, it dumped 25 cm overnight over my location. This storm looks like it will be closer to us at peak strength as well as head closer to us later, and it could be even stronger so could we perhaps more than a foot of snow?!

Now THIS looks like an amazing storm for March 10! GFS dumps over half an inch of rainwater equivalent over my location. GFS 18z @ 336h:



GFS only gives us 25 cm of snow (8 in) with that storm but 40 cm (16 in) with the current storm. WOW!
Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy
Hi Spathy.
I dont mind you being annoying at all! heheheheh
Actually, the weather station has been in the same location for about 60 years, about 50 yds from the nearest highway, and mostly surrounded by grass.
Now!!! I was flying from Tobago at 5:00 pm and noted a lot of fires. So PERHAPS there was one just upwind from the station.
Type 'PIARCO' in the search box above to look at this stations history.
Also, the thermometer on my patio hit 97 today as well. But there were certainly fires around here today. Nearly drove my wife mad.

I am going to call the Met. Office in the morning to clear the thing up though!
NEXT :)
Good day for Canada

Bronze in 5000 meter womans long track Skating
Silver in 3000 meter womans short track Relay
Gold and Silver in Womans 2 man Bobsled
Captain of floating university: Sudden 'microburst' knocked ship onto side off Brazilian coast

RIO DE JANEIRO, Brazil — A sudden, vertical blast of wind knocked the three-masted SV Concordia onto its side in 15 seconds, forcing the captain and four dozen students to abandon ship and ride out heavy seas for nearly two days before their rescue off Brazil's Atlantic coast, the survivors said Saturday.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadianpress/article/ALeqM5h20Q93zGC5Vb8vHvbsuC6O8tTTnA

Wind causes damage in Manatee County
Bradenton, Florida - Some residents in a Bradenton neighborhood are cleaning up after what local emergency officials are calling a small tornado.

The National Weather Service says it was actually a microburst that blew through the neighborhood with 50 mph winds.
http://www.wtsp.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=125158&catid=8
Hey all.

Still raining here, with some serious downpours and even thunder / lightning again this evening (2nd time today). Our record high of 90 was set in 2008, but that 96 for Trinidad seems wild at any time of the year, much less late February. Pottery, what's the all-time record high temp for that area / station?

This weather is soooooo weird for this time of year. Our average is usually clear / sunny with temps around 80; this volume and intensity of moisture is really outside the norm. I think I will check in with our own met office tomorrow to find out if we've broken rainfall records..... I'm fairly sure we have....
Snow cover stretched from South Dakota’s Mt. Rushmore to Arizona’s Grand Canyon in late February 2010, after snowstorms blanketed the Rocky Mountains.

Mostly cloud-free skies allowed the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite this largely unobstructed view of the western continental United States on February 23, 2010.

From northern New Mexico, the Rocky Mountains stretch northward through Colorado and Wyoming. Along the eastern face of this mountain range, rugged terrain gives way to prairie, including the flat topography of eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Mountains extend far westward, however, with snow cover accentuating mountain peaks all the way to Salt Lake City. The snow-free Grand Canyon snakes a serpentine path in the southwest, but the land surrounding that park is snow covered, as is much of northern Arizona and New Mexico.

NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Michon Scott.

Instrument:
Terra - MODIS
GW/CC is real, only on this site do I need to remind people and not because of Jeff Masters. Try something. Research the skeptics, you will find unprofessional quacks or someone who is not a skeptic but just questions a nuance and quack group jumps on it. Research main stream opinion, you will find the best minds on the planet in subject matter. Yea it's America and you have a right to disagree and ignore science, just sad to here it on science oriented site.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Anyone who is confused with the recent media coverage should read

Close Encounters of the Absurd Kind
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2010/02/close-encounters-of-the-absurd-kind/#comment- 162809


I don't need media.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


If you do that same horizontal line TRICK for 2010 onward, then we are already at a spot that would be almost two jumps above the first one you made to represent the new "normal" from 1998 onward, in order to hide the increase.


Wait on my blog. And I do have you on record saying 1C by 2013, iirc.

I'll be validating you too. ;)
Orca, post 327.
How can Canada have won the Womens 2- Man Bobsled event??
It just does not seem right.
Surely, this is taking the lack of sexual discrimination too far, man!
Wow. Just watched the Olbermann clip.... really powerful commentary. I hope the politicians actually pay attention.....
Quoting pottery:
Orca, post 327.
How can Canada have won the Womens 2- Man Bobsled event??
It just does not seem right.
Surely, this is taking the lack of sexual discrimination too far, man!


I asked myself the same thing as I typed it... got a SNAG headache, so I left the thinking alone.
Quoting centex:
GW/CC is real, only on this site do I need to remind people and not because of Jeff Masters. Try something. Research the skeptics, you will find unprofessional quacks or someone who is not a skeptic but just questions a nuance and quack group jumps on it. Research main stream opinion, you will find the best minds on the planet in subject matter. Yea it's America and you have a right to disagree and ignore science, just sad to here it on science oriented site.


I'm not a quack. Just a guy looking at data. :)
Quoting centex:
GW/CC is real, only on this site do I need to remind people and not because of Jeff Masters. Try something. Research the skeptics, you will find unprofessional quacks or someone who is not a skeptic but just questions a nuance and quack group jumps on it. Research main stream opinion, you will find the best minds on the planet in subject matter. Yea it's America and you have a right to disagree and ignore science, just sad to here it on science oriented site.


Hummm ?

WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.”

Why do you think this is happening? Perhaps the litigation from US states concerning the EPA's CO2 endangerment finding? They will have to prove that in a court of law now. No more hiding behind a curtain!

Britain's Weather Office Proposes Climate-Gate Do-Over

Met office proposal

Good news is --opinion and analysis without political influence is upon us :)
Good evening all!

did anyone see the Purdue Minnesota game???

Holy hell that was good!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. Just watched the Olbermann clip.... really powerful commentary. I hope the politicians actually pay attention.....


Yes. I pray for his father and him (believe it or not I pray for Kieth a lot).

The ironic thing is, though, that in a govt run system they would not go to all those measures (not cost effective) and his father, most likely, would not have been around for him to experience that.

Please, by all means, show me a case where those extraordinary measures are taken in a govt run health system. I'll listen.
Quoting Ossqss:


Hummm ?

WMO: “. . . we cannot at this time conclusively identify anthropogenic signals in past tropical cyclone data.”

Why do you think this is happening? Perhaps the litigation from US states concerning the EPA's CO2 endangerment finding? They will have to prove that in a court of law now. No more hiding behind a curtain!

Britain's Weather Office Proposes Climate-Gate Do-Over

Met office proposal

Good news is --opinion and analysis without political influence is upon us :)


The interaction between GW and TCs is very complex. The pattern will be more clear in the coming decades, but we can't wait that long.
only cyclone on the globe now... god winter is boring, specifically this winter and in upstate new york.


hopefully it'll get better. Supposedly 8-12 inches tomorrow morning. but last time they said a foot it ended up being an inch so , idk anymore. expecting about 2 inches and sunny when i get up at like 11am.

Pottery
Well good on ya for understanding an annoying Spathy.
and checking out any anomaly's.
That particular station does not sound problematic.
Fire does!

Is everything safe where you are?
Quoting Seastep:


Yes. I pray for his father and him (believe it or not I pray for Kieth a lot).

The ironic thing is, though, that in a govt run system they would not go to all those measures (not cost effective) and his father, most likely, would not have been around for him to experience that.

Please, by all means, show me a case where those extraordinary measures are taken in a govt run health system. I'll listen.


It's certainly disturbing; I feel so badly for everyone involved.

I'm thinking -- this is just off the top of my head -- that this isn't about gov't run vs. a privately run system -- but the need for a more holistic approach. I'm not talking about alternative medicine, although some of that may have been helpful.

I'm talking about someone taking charge and overseeing all the specialists, also a patient-advocate as 1st Lieutenant, first making sure they "do no harm," or at least as little harm as possible.

Easy for me to Monday-morning quarterback... it's just so sad. Small solace that it is, I'm glad the son can speak so eloquently for and about his father.

On second reconsideration.
150 feet from a highway does not sound natural and could be tainted.

Trust me placement of my own weather station was nearly impossible.
Including 40 feet from a two lane road with almost no traffic.
That placement caused a 25 degree spike above any possible norm.
Add hundreds or tens of thousands of cars and a wind from a bias direction.
Wow.
Weather stations are by standard supposed to be in natural conditions completely away from any possible contamination.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The interaction between GW and TCs is very complex. The pattern will be more clear in the coming decades, but we can't wait that long.


Complex, yes. Just as complex as the interaction of the Sun with high and low cloud formation, and deep ocean currents and cycles with polar ice melt's are on our climate. Do we know the answers? Is it a crisis like none other we have ever seen, as the Swine flu was said to be? I don't know for sure, but I do know when lawyers get involved, we wait.......
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


It's certainly disturbing; I feel so badly for everyone involved.

I'm thinking -- this is just off the top of my head -- that this isn't about gov't run vs. a privately run system -- but the need for a more holistic approach. I'm not talking about alternative medicine, although some of that may have been helpful.

I'm talking about someone taking charge and overseeing all the specialists, also a patient-advocate as 1st Lieutenant, first making sure they "do no harm," or at least as little harm as possible.

Easy for me to Monday-morning quarterback... it's just so sad. Small solace that it is, I'm glad the son can speak so eloquently for and about his father.



Yes, a true son. Bless him.

"Do no harm" isn't going anywhere, under any system. Aside from abortion which is excepted from that for some strange reason, but I digress, and will not get into that topic here. I can't even imagine the fireworks.

Nothing wrong with counseling, but to be perfectly realistic, does anyone need that? Really? Certain things are just innate.
Re 330 Patrap....

Great photo, pat, and I took a while to look it over closely to see if I could Identifiy some of the "landmarks".... great stuff.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The interaction between GW and TCs is very complex. The pattern will be more clear in the coming decades, but we can't wait that long.
pattern is already evident with slow or altering ocean currents too excess water vapour higher sst's abnormal jet stream patterns all this and more is yet to become the norm o and lets not forget alter seasonal weather patterns we are seeing all this now and yet to come aye the ides of March begins the march in
I think Keith is objecting to a system that doesn't even allow pple to get good information about the options for their loved ones - unless they can pay for the INFORMATION.... sad. I think he feels it's unfair for pple to be saved or lost simply because they are rich or poor.... I think he is saying insurance companies shouldn't be able to pull the rug out from under pple who have been paying customers for years, simply to make a bit more $$$....

I was also interested the other day to hear that Prez Obama et al are fighting for banking reforms for credit card holders, some of which have been in place in The Bahamas since I started banking in my late teens. I'm thinking things like CC companies not being able to hike rates in the middle of cycle.... basic stuff. I find it amazing that Americans seem to have more control over their banking than they do over their health.
Nothing wrong with counseling, but to be perfectly realistic, does anyone need that? Really?

Have you asked your pastor about that?
Or your doctor(s)?
Or any members' of your family or their doctors, or your friends, colleagues, etc.?

Anyway, I'd answer that with an unqualified YES!
And I don't think I've known more sick people than your average neurotic...
:)
Still raining. Unbelievable....

I think this is a sign to go back to bed.....

'Night all!
Spathy, I hear you.
However, we have to also understand that the entire "bad placement of weather instruments" is a pretty moot point.
There are, in reality, very few "natural" environments left. And, more importantly, we have to take into account the fact that we are seeking to measure the temp. and our paving of the planet is (as you say) raising the temp.
What is the point of checking the temp. in the middle of nowhere, where noboddy lives? We are concerned with the temp. of the PLANET, and we need to check the temp. everywhere.
Not only where it is coolest.

You are admitting that our actions (paving, in this case) has created rising temps.
I have said all along that we are responsible for a lot of what we now call climate change. Are you agreeing with me?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Still raining. Unbelievable....

I think this is a sign to go back to bed.....

'Night all!


Good night, Baha. Stay warm and dry.
And I liked your comment #351.
Could we see any thing like Katrina or bigger this comeing year based on data being collected for the up comeing year?
I would be interested to read other people's views on my last post too. Post 354.
356. Anything is possible, especially a full 3-1/2 months before the season starts. We could have a year full of highly destructive Cat 6547754 storms, or a bunch of storms that churn up the Atlantic and cause more havoc on the blogs than they do on any landmass. It is WAY too early to estimate the size of storms, track, or intensity. (heck, anything beyond 3-5 days is a crap-shoot)
Quoting jeffs713:
or a bunch of storms that churn up the Atlantic and cause more havoc on the blogs than they do on any landmass.


um, last year :p
Well Pottery
On the contrary.
There are plenty of natural areas left.

And while pavement may not help.
It adds so insignificantly to:

Global Temp Averages

as to not be statistically significant.
Until such bad placements are 8 Degrees and grossly higher.

And that situation is occurring.
And the situation of removing historical stations in natural areas without recalibrating the mean is also happening.


Lets make sure we are using actual,hypotheses and control type science before we rob the available monies for actual Global cleaning.
The earth is 70% covered in water.
The earth is 30% land mass.
When you look at the macro climate of Earth, it is obvious what interactions are taking place to form weather patterns.

The sun heats the Earth, evaporates water and stirs the atmosphere, water vapor rises into the atmosphere where it interacts with the other gases in the atmosphere, forming pressure systems...bingo...weather.
364. DVG
I sympathize with his father's pain. My dad should have died many times over. He's beat cancer so many times it staggers the imagination. The pain he's endured by having every organ in his body removed and scalpeled to remove cancer is in fact a miracle.

But I fail to connect anything Mr O has said that would lead me to conclude that my dad would indeed be dead if this health care bill passes.

He is wrong. The family WILL NOT be given the option of remedy in cases where in fact the patient may indeed survive.

If you don't believe me, well, have you heard about the book given to our soldiers. It questions why they would wish to continue to go on living as a result of their war injuries.

Our founding fathers built our system of government the way it is for a very specific reason. They DID NOT TRUST government. They knew all too well what a tyranical government meant.

Mr O has provided a very passionate plea, but he does not connect the dots.

When he slanders Ms Palin, he fails completely to even provide an coherent arguement at all. He throws a statement out there that is hanging in total limbo. He fails to provide a point of reference or evidence to support said slander.

The man is good at theatrics, but short on logic.
So Spathy, I keep hearing about all the stations which may have instruments that are corrupted for all kinds of reasons.
Is it realistic to assume that in every one of those cases, the information is wrong on the plus side?.
Can there be no instruments reading low??
The sun is the key.

And as far as man mucking things up here on Earth, I look around and see abundant and diverse life EVERYWHERE!

GW is a hoax. It is being used by politicians in order to justify a litany of very un-liberating legislation.

I do not have a problem with people being "environmentally sensitive" and all the rig-a-ma-roll that goes along with it.

Just don't force me to do it. I'm a free man.
Quoting MississippiBoy:
Could we see any thing like Katrina or bigger this comeing year based on data being collected for the up comeing year?
at the moment water too cold see how it warms in early spring how fast if a lot of cloudiness may take a while the next bigun in GOM is the last to pass for 2010 winter on the trek ne takes cold winter air with and and spring air healding in behind it
Quoting DVG:
I sympathize with his father's pain. My dad should have died many times over. He's beat cancer so many times it staggers the imagination. The pain he's endured by having every organ in his body removed and scalpeled to remove cancer is in fact a miracle.

But I fail to connect anything Mr O has said that would lead me to conclude that my dad would indeed be dead if this health care bill passes.

He is wrong. The family WILL NOT be given the option of remedy in cases where in fact the patient may indeed survive.

If you don't believe me, well, have you heard about the book given to our soldiers. It questions why they would wish to continue to go on living as a result of their war injuries.

Our founding fathers built our system of government the way it is for a very specific reason. They DID NOT TRUST government. They knew all too well what a tyranical government meant.

Mr O has provided a very passionate plea, but he does not connect the dots.

When he slanders Ms Palin, he fails completely to even provide an coherent arguement at all. He throws a statement out there that is hanging in total limbo. He fails to provide a point of reference or evidence to support said slander.

The man is good at theatrics, but short on logic.


I do not want the government forcing me to buy anything. I am a free man. I'll buy what I want, when I want it.
Thanks Cyclone
Although I am sure its not meant to relate to personal discussion.
There is at least 70% natural areas for mean temp gathering.


Quoting CycloneOz:
The sun is the key.

And as far as man mucking things up here on Earth, I look around and see abundant and diverse life EVERYWHERE!

GW is a hoax. It is being used by politicians in order to justify a litany of very un-liberating legislation.

I do not have a problem with people being "environmentally sensitive" and all the rig-a-ma-roll that goes along with it.

Just don't force me to do it. I'm a free man.


Quoting spathy:
Thanks Cyclone
Although I am sure its not meant to relate to personal discussion.
There is at least 70% natural areas for mean temp gathering.




Agreed...let's get on it! :)
Quoting pottery:
So Spathy, I keep hearing about all the stations which may have instruments that are corrupted for all kinds of reasons.
Is it realistic to assume that in every one of those cases, the information is wrong on the plus side?.
Can there be no instruments reading low??


Well Pottery unless the stations are located in an air conditioned building...... Yes!
You seem to be taking this entire GW/CC thing personally, Cyclone.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Nothing wrong with counseling, but to be perfectly realistic, does anyone need that? Really?

Have you asked your pastor about that?
Or your doctor(s)?
Or any members' of your family or their doctors, or your friends, colleagues, etc.?

Anyway, I'd answer that with an unqualified YES!
And I don't think I've known more sick people than your average neurotic...
:)


I've been involved in such a decision. Not easy.

And, the counseling is there already, both spiritual and medical. Govt counseling is redundant.
Quoting tornadodude:


um, last year :p

Shhh! Stop with that L-- er.. Lo---... I can't say it on here. Its a word that rhymes with magic, but begins with "lo". (kinda). It is banned on this blog's comments during the season, because it makes *too much* sense.

;)
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think Keith is objecting to a system that doesn't even allow pple to get good information about the options for their loved ones - unless they can pay for the INFORMATION.... sad. I think he feels it's unfair for pple to be saved or lost simply because they are rich or poor.... I think he is saying insurance companies shouldn't be able to pull the rug out from under pple who have been paying customers for years, simply to make a bit more $$$....

I was also interested the other day to hear that Prez Obama et al are fighting for banking reforms for credit card holders, some of which have been in place in The Bahamas since I started banking in my late teens. I'm thinking things like CC companies not being able to hike rates in the middle of cycle.... basic stuff. I find it amazing that Americans seem to have more control over their banking than they do over their health.


Don't need to pay for information. That information is readily available and forthcoming from the medical community. Just have to ask.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



EXCELLENT post, KotG! Thats what I don't understand about the whole debate... yeah, it can be expensive, but the payoff is still staggering, even if it is all a hoax.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
at the moment water too cold see how it warms in early spring how fast if a lot of cloudiness may take a while the next bigun in GOM is the last to pass for 2010 winter on the trek ne takes cold winter air with and and spring air healding in behind it

Hey Keeper how strong do you think the low that the models are predicting to form in the Gulf of Mexico will be?I know we have a small one comeing on Friday.
Exactly Cyclone.

Lets start taking out all other variables.
Start to incentive's not tax/punish.

End up with a cleaner World and better data to base any decisions.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Like I said...do what you want as an individual. However, having the government to force me to do something I do not want to do affects my personal liberty.

I'm all for clean water, clean air and such. But forcing me...well...that's another turn of the screw and my personal liberties have been screwed enough. An example is seatbelts. I'm forced to wear them now. Everytime I click it to drive down a 25 mph road, I think about it. It does not make me happy, and our Declaration of Independence says "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

There are many who feel like I do and all this government intrusion into our personal lives is about to end.
"Freedom makes a huge requirement of every human being. With freedom comes responsibility. For the person who is unwilling to grow up, the person who does not want to carry is own weight, this is a frightening prospect."

Eleanor Roosevelt
Quoting jeffs713:

Shhh! Stop with that L-- er.. Lo---... I can't say it on here. Its a word that rhymes with magic, but begins with "lo". (kinda). It is banned on this blog's comments during the season, because it makes *too much* sense.

;)


hahaha

yeah, that word is not allowed to be spoken, nor is it allowed to be used :P
Quoting pottery:
I would be interested to read other people's views on my last post too. Post 354.


Off the top of my head, the vast majority of the planet is undeveloped. Not even close.

Agree that it is the planet, and development does effect that. Why satellite temps are so important, imo. The only truly global, objective measurement we have of planet-wide temps.
Agreed, Jeffs.
But the expense should be computed in relation to the expense we are already facing, for doing what we are doing. I mean, what portion of the World budget is being spent now, on stuff that could have been avoided?
thats disturbing that you would be supportive of a scientific fallacy if it "does the world good". The same logic has been argued for these things:
Extermination of Jews.
Invasion of Iraq.
Countless other wars.
the list goes on but the point is the same. A lie that forwards an agenda, however good and well, is still a lie. If it's a hoax, we cannot allow it to forward the green agenda.
I dont give a crud about the world BUDGET!

I care about my budget and My and Your Constitutional Requirements.

Carrot, not the stick!
Quoting PcolaDan:
"Freedom makes a huge requirement of every human being. With freedom comes responsibility. For the person who is unwilling to grow up, the person who does not want to carry is own weight, this is a frightening prospect."

Eleanor Roosevelt
with responsibility comes great power we can do it we are capable but we fail all of the worlds problems can be solved in one day if we all just worked together as the sayin goes its so easy even a caveman can do it or can we?
Quoting pottery:
Agreed, Jeffs.
But the expense should be computed in relation to the expense we are already facing, for doing what we are doing. I mean, what portion of the World budget is being spent now, on stuff that could have been avoided?

If we the Unied States would quit spending money on things like finding out what causes the grass to be green,there would be plenty of money to take care of our sick people.
Quoting pottery:
So Spathy, I keep hearing about all the stations which may have instruments that are corrupted for all kinds of reasons.
Is it realistic to assume that in every one of those cases, the information is wrong on the plus side?.
Can there be no instruments reading low??


Actually, you bring up an interesting observation I made. GISS is LOWER than satellite, believe it or not. Although, the trend is steeper. Really doesn't matter in apples-to-apples comparison, but this graph, imo, shows the lack of credibility in the non-satellite temperature record. Close, but no cigar.

Quoting pottery:
You seem to be taking this entire GW/CC thing personally, Cyclone.


I do. Why? Because I own four cars and they all require gasoline to run. My ATV loves gas!

Did I build these vehicles? NO! I bought them. They are being sold. I can go out tomorrow, if I wanted to and had the means to, and buy 1,000,000 gasoline powered cars.

Do you know what the Secretary of Energy said today in the Middle East? Because what he said today, should it come to pass, would have a direct impact on me and my family and how we live our personal lives.

U.S. energy secretary Steven Chu said Wednesday that the U.S. must decrease its energy use to allow developing nations the room to grow, while emphasizing that prosperity doesn't have to come with a large carbon footprint.

"We believe we have to decrease our use of energy to allow headroom for the developing nations to grow their economies," Chu said in a speech in Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates.

"There is no law of physics that says prosperity is proportional to carbon emissions," Chu said.


You folks who are inclined to give government full control of your lives...go ahead.

But be aware...there are many more of us than you, and we've had it up to here with all the BS (/me points at stratosphere.)
Quoting jeffs713:

EXCELLENT post, KotG! Thats what I don't understand about the whole debate... yeah, it can be expensive, but the payoff is still staggering, even if it is all a hoax.


Make the argument on its merits and, yes, I believe you will have many more that help out in that respect. Doing otherwise only alienates and does the exact opposite, imo.
#385

Exactly

The Green agenda does not need trumped up data to be forwarded.

No sane person wants a dirty Planet.

No sane person wants needed monies to disappear down a farce hole like Carbon credit scheme.
just sayin'

all the GW convo is technically off topic ;)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with responsibility comes great power we can do it we are capable but we fail all of the worlds problems can be solved in one day if we all just worked together as the sayin goes its so easy even a caveman can do it or can we?


All of us work together? Can't and won't ever happen.

I want to do what I want to do. It's my life.

And the less government (forced control) involved in my life...the better.
Spathy, as I said to Cyclone. You are taking the whole issue PERSONALLY.
It is unrealistic to not give a crud about anything but YOU.
You are correct when you say you have Rights. But your actions affect ME. And I also have rights.
And there is a 50% chance, that I may be correct in my beliefs. And a 50% chance that you are wrong.
390. CycloneOz 12:28 AM EST on February 25, 2010

You folks who are inclined to give government full control of your lives...go ahead.

But be aware...there are many more of us than you, and we've had it up to here with all the BS (/me points at stratosphere.)

yes oz we are legions for we are many
Yes Pottery but I dont want to pay 50% taxes!

Good give and take folks.
Have a good evening.
Keep warm. :0)
Quoting tornadodude:
just sayin'

all the GW convo is technically off topic ;)


That's your daily fallback position ;)

But what you might be missing is that this and a host of other things "government" are reaching the boiling point.

When Chu says today that "WE" "MUST" use less energy, so that other countries can develop is a direct statement against how I want to live my personal life.

Quoting tornadodude:
just sayin'

all the GW convo is technically off topic ;)

Yeah but it all sounds like a bunch of hog wash,that is global warming,to me.The good lord has taken care of it all these years and he will cont. to untill he comes again.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
390. CycloneOz 12:28 AM EST on February 25, 2010

You folks who are inclined to give government full control of your lives...go ahead.

But be aware...there are many more of us than you, and we've had it up to here with all the BS (/me points at stratosphere.)

yes oz we are legions for we are many


Mock it all you want, bro! :)
399.
AMEN

I am going to bed.
Quoting MississippiBoy:

Yeah but it all sounds like a bunch of hog wash,that is global warming,to me.The good lord has taken care of it all these years and he will cont. to untill he comes again.
good lord now thats the biggest scam since the beginning of time if i ever seen one
me personally I think Ive got my opinion out there. The opinion that any opinions mean squat when compared to facts. Facts are we don't know. I may lean to the side who thinks it's improbable that we are the driving factor in the climate, but I can't disprove it. We may be, I don't know. But Ive said it before and Ive said it again. If we are the cause then we won't know without a shadow of a doubt until it's too late to fix it. Flip the coin over and you will see that economically we won't and shouldn't act until we are sure without a shadow of a doubt. Add these together and you get this: An Ark not a dam. We need to be real here. Ideals didn't work in the past and they damn sure don't work now. A perfect world is unobtainable. What we do is this: invest in technology and infrastructure that allows us to survive through a climate catastrophe but at the same time provides a more productive economic system regardless.
Good night to all
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good lord now thats the biggest scam since the beginning of time if i ever seen one


My point exactly. But the government will fix things, huh? LOL! Same Kool-Aid, different flavor.
Quoting pottery:
Spathy, as I said to Cyclone. You are taking the whole issue PERSONALLY.
It is unrealistic to not give a crud about anything but YOU.
You are correct when you say you have Rights. But your actions affect ME. And I also have rights.
And there is a 50% chance, that I may be correct in my beliefs. And a 50% chance that you are wrong.


I disagree. My actions don't affect you one bit. The actions in you local ecosystem do.
Quoting SouthALWX:
me personally I think Ive got my opinion out there. The opinion that any opinions mean squat when compared to facts. Facts are we don't know. I may lean to the side who thinks it's improbable that we are the driving factor in the climate, but I can't disprove it. We may b, I don't know. But Ive said it before and Ive said it again. If we are the cause then we won't know without a shadow of a doubt until it's too late to fix it. Flip the coin over and you will see that economically we won't and shouldn't act until we are sure without a shadow of a doubt. Add these together and you get this: An Ark not a dam. We need to be real here. Ideals didn't work in the past and they damn sure don't work now. A perfect world is unobtainable. What we do is this: invest in technology and infrastructure that allows us to survive through a climate catastrophe but at the same time provides a more productive economic system regardless.


There will be no global climate catastrophe. And what in the world can we do to "fix it?"

We can't create a low or high pressure system yet. We can't make the wind blow. We can't stop the sun from shining. Oh, but we can tax carbon emissions! SURE! That's the ticket!!!!

There will be hosts of local catastrophes, and what has man done in the past to survive them?

He either toughs it out or moves on to another place.
Who Cares!?!?!?

We have 2012 to worry about!!!

hehe
Quoting tornadodude:
Who Cares!?!?!?

We have 2012 to worry about!!!

hehe


LOL.
And what in the world can we do to "fix it?"

Exactly. Did you not follow the Ark reference? An ark is made to survive a catastrophe, not fix it.
Quoting CycloneOz:


My point exactly. But the government will fix things, huh? LOL! Same Kool-Aid, different flavor.
remember your only free as long as you do what your told
Quoting Seastep:


I disagree. My actions don't affect you one bit. The actions in you local ecosystem do.


The only way my actions can affect "most people" here on this blog is via YouTube. And for the most part, that's entertainment. Maybe one day I'll cause you to shoot a coke you're drinking out through your nose because of a video I've made, but that's about it.

I do have close friends here, though. I could certainly fowl things up for them if I was that kind of person. But I choose to act honorably towards them and they know me as a person they can depend on.
Personally, I think it's funny that you guys constantly debate about climate issues. In all reality, those who believe in man-made climate change are not going to budge towards the natural alteration of the climate and those who believe in the natural alteration are not going to budge towards the man-made theory. Nothing is going to be convincing until either we all start drowning from the ice caps being completely melted or the globe starts cooling again. Why then must there be constant debates on this subject?? We have plenty of other weather phenomena that is current and happening now or about to happen.

Of course, that's just my opinion. :-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
remember your only free as long as you do what your told


I'm free as long as I obey the law.

Unfortunately for me (and others who realize it,) they keep making new ones that further restrict my personal liberty.

We've had enough of it.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Personally, I think it's funny that you guys constantly debate about climate issues. In all reality, those who believe in man-made climate change are not going to budge towards the natural alteration of the climate and those who believe in the natural alteration are not going to budge towards the man-made theory. Nothing is going to be convincing until either we all start drowning from the ice caps being completely melted or the globe starts cooling again. Why then must there be constant debates on this subject?? We have plenty of other weather phenomena that is current and happening now or about to happen.

Of course, that's just my opinion. :-)

I agree. Like I said, nothing will be done until it's too late to fix. Or we'll continue to do nothing until we find out we were fine. Thats the reality of a globalized industrial world. theres really no point in arguing it. If you believe that the people of the world will willingly give their wealth to protect their posterity 100+ years in the future then you need a history lesson.
Quoting CycloneOz:
The earth is 30% land mass.

Well, no. Its about 30% land surface. Land mass is about 99.98% of Earth's mass
Quoting MississippiBoy:

Hey Keeper how strong do you think the low that the models are predicting to form in the Gulf of Mexico will be?I know we have a small one comeing on Friday.
yes the first is secondary the second is prime bombs as it exits ne fla coast with trailing straight line cold front all pullin ene with a cold blast follow building rtn flow first strong spring flow
Quoting transitzone:

Well, no. Its about 30% land surface. Land mass is about 99.98% of Earth's mass

Lol well that depends how you define "land"
I do feel for the folks that spent all the time and energy gathering the data at GISS.

But, same as I felt sentimental when Smith-Corona closed its doors, satellite is the future.

Those that want to hold on to their typewriter have every right to do so, but I've moved on to the PC.

Goodnight.
Websters
1 a : the solid part of the surface of the earth
Considering the earth is molten for a good percentage ... I think "land" is much less than the 99.98 or whatever you suggested :) Details.
Quoting SouthALWX:

I agree. Like I said, nothing will be done until it's too late to fix. Or we'll continue to do nothing until we find out we were fine. Thats the reality of a globalized industrial world. theres really no point in arguing it. If you believe that the people of the world will willingly give their wealth to protect their posterity 100+ years in the future then you need a history lesson.


The reason for the argument is that GW has become politicized. If it were simply a "that's interesting" series of observations, then it would be benign.

But the government is trying to use GW to screw us over. It's a hoax that they're perpetrating.

So our argument against GW is biased towards legislation that would force us (loss of liberty) to comply.
Quoting transitzone:

Well, no. Its about 30% land surface. Land mass is about 99.98% of Earth's mass


Sorry, verbage wreck. Nothing to see here, move along. :)
Well that's not the same argument OZ. That argument has nothing to do with the truth of AGW. That lies in personal freedoms that should be guaranteed regardless of AGW ....
Quoting MississippiWx:
Personally, I think it's funny that you guys constantly debate about climate issues. In all reality, those who believe in man-made climate change are not going to budge towards the natural alteration of the climate and those who believe in the natural alteration are not going to budge towards the man-made theory. Nothing is going to be convincing until either we all start drowning from the ice caps being completely melted or the globe starts cooling again. Why then must there be constant debates on this subject?? We have plenty of other weather phenomena that is current and happening now or about to happen.

Of course, that's just my opinion. :-)


No one will drown. Been used over and over and over and over, but never happens. I'm only 8 ft above sea level. Not worried in the least.

And, if we can affect it so much, should be a piece of cake to correct. Although, imo, there is nothing to correct in terms of GW. It is nature.

Now, I have started thinking about conserving fossil fuels (if they can, in fact, warm the planet) for the ice age that will occur in 2K-4K years from now.

Not debatable other than timing. Only a matter of when, not if.
Quoting SouthALWX:
Well that's not the same argument OZ. That argument has nothing to do with the truth of AGW. That lies in personal freedoms that should be guaranteed regardless of AGW ....


Correct! The key words are "should be guaranteed regardless"...but guess what!!!!

The morons running things see things differently.
Oh I agree 100% on that. Legislation like is going on here is only going to serve to encourage law breakers. When we take the purchasing power away from citizens, we leave ourselves unarmed against those who choose to keep their power (by breaking the law) it's the same concept as to why the right to bare arms is an intrinsic fundamental in the US constitution. Im not going to argue that AGW is false 100% because I dont know. I will argue that regardless we as a people can't change our way of life instantly without consequence. That consequence being losing our place as a world power to a country who ignored our laws and chose to industrialize to the full capability.
Quoting SouthALWX:
Websters
1 a : the solid part of the surface of the earth
Considering the earth is molten for a good percentage ... I think "land" is much less than the 99.98 or whatever you suggested :) Details.

Mass of the earth minus mass of hydrosphere minus mass of atmosphere
Quoting transitzone:

Mass of the earth minus mass of hydrosphere minus mass of atmosphere

Like I said, depends on how you define "land" =P
Ancient Aztec Joe the Mathematician: "Hey Bill, we've been able to create a calendar that reflects time right up to the point where we're aligned with the center of the galaxy!"

Ancient Aztec Bill the Astronomer: "Yeah, we're cool!"

Ancient Aztec Joe the Mathematician: "So what do we do next?"

Ancient Aztec Bill the Astronomer: "Well if we stop here, people in the future will think the end of time will be in 2012."

Ancient Aztec Joe the Mathematician: "That sounds like a great idea for a hoax!"

Ancient Aztec Bill the Astronomer: "Yeah! We'll do that. Wanna go sacrifice someone?"

Ancient Aztec Joe the Mathematician: "I'm down!"
Quoting SouthALWX:
Oh I agree 100% on that. Legislation like is going on here is only going to serve to encourage law breakers. When we take the purchasing power away from citizens, we leave ourselves unarmed against those who choose to keep their power (by breaking the law) it's the same concept as to why the right to bare arms is an intrinsic fundamental in the US constitution. Im not going to argue that AGW is false 100% because I dont know. I will argue that regardless we as a people can't change our way of life instantly without consequence. That consequence being losing our place as a world power to a country who ignored our laws and chose to industrialize to the full capability.


And Chu just said today that we're going to use less energy so that other countries can catch up to us. OMG...what a nightmare.
Best part about it ... If the world does end in 2012 atleast there won't be any "I told you so"'s
what if it was a coincidence? Thats gunna haunt me until then now ... because if it was a coincidence I won't be around to check and see -.-
Quoting SouthALWX:
Oh I agree 100% on that. Legislation like is going on here is only going to serve to encourage law breakers. When we take the purchasing power away from citizens, we leave ourselves unarmed against those who choose to keep their power (by breaking the law) it's the same concept as to why the right to bare arms is an intrinsic fundamental in the US constitution. Im not going to argue that AGW is false 100% because I dont know. I will argue that regardless we as a people can't change our way of life instantly without consequence. That consequence being losing our place as a world power to a country who ignored our laws and chose to industrialize to the full capability.


Well said. People in a free society have much greater influence through their pocketbooks. That is the key. Larger the govt becomes, less that power is. And it applies to all. No matter the income level, you can choose where to spend that income.

Perfect micro-economic example is a pizza joint in town. Have to say, probably the best pizza in town. However, they do not accept Amex (pet peeve of mine and the proprietors are the ones that lose). That equals me not patronizing them. Will never understand it as a business owner myself, but why? An extra 1%?

OK. Let's do the math. Say $200 per year on pizza (probably more, but conservative). I buy it elsewhere. So, for $2, that establishment is giving up how much in profit?

Idiots. Period.
Quoting SouthALWX:
Best part about it ... If the world does end in 2012 atleast there won't be any "I told you so"'s
what if it was a coincidence? Thats gunna haunt me until then now ... because if it was a coincidence I won't be around to check and see -.-


I promise you that when they got the calendar to the point where there was an alignment with the center of the galaxy, they thought it was a good place to stop...and it was.

It was a remarkable feat they achieved!

Quoting CycloneOz:


And Chu just said today that we're going to use less energy so that other countries can catch up to us. OMG...what a nightmare.

Exactly ... it's pretty straight forward. If we aren't careful, history will repeat itself. We started as a rebellion (thats common in history) we had a civil war (next step in history) we experience rapid growth and supremacy (typical of a historical empire) and then what happens? Internal strife leaves you open to foreign invasion. We've seen this already ... rather than a full on attack, we are simply losing a war of attrition. We increase our debt, limit our own rights, protect those who can protect themselves, and over extend our military force *cough* napoleon *cough* ...
As follow up to 432, multiply that by the number of people that actually get it, in terms of economic democracy. Although, sadly, too many in this world have lost that perspective.
But what if the owner of the pizza place "was forced" to accept AMEX, even though his idiot reasoning made no sense to the rest of us.

Every single time he'd pay that $2, he would be completely upset about it. His pursuit of happiness quashed like a bug.

Even idiots deserve to be happy! :)
Quoting CycloneOz:


I promise you that when they got the calendar to the point where there was an alignment with the center of the galaxy, they thought it was a good place to stop...and it was.

It was a remarkable feat they achieved!


Lol that's a safe bet. If you're wrong I don't expect you to care too much at that point =P
Lol
More Americans by the minute are being convinced that more government, bigger government, is a severe hindrance to our economic and personal freedom.

There are ways to address GW (if it is truly going on) without bigger government. Same with healthcare, unemployment, poverty, crime, etc.

Make no mistake. There is a collective thumb on the pulse of our republic and before we lose that pulse, we'll lose our own lives to save it.

LIVE FREE OR DIE!
Quoting CycloneOz:
But what if the owner of the pizza place "was forced" to accept AMEX, even though his idiot reasoning made no sense to the rest of us.

Every single time he'd pay that $2, he would be completely upset about it. His pursuit of happiness quashed like a bug.

Even idiots deserve to be happy! :)


A little humor before bed.

Quoting CycloneOz:
But what if the owner of the pizza place "was forced" to accept AMEX, even though his idiot reasoning made no sense to the rest of us.

Every single time he'd pay that $2, he would be completely upset about it. His pursuit of happiness quashed like a bug.

Even idiots deserve to be happy! :)


Assuming $20 a pie for ease of math, he's only paying $0.20 a pie. Brilliant decision by that owner. LOL.

It's $2 per YEAR.
Quoting tornadodude:
Lol


LOL.
Quoting Seastep:


Assuming $20 a pie for ease of math, he's only paying $0.20 a pie. Brilliant decision by that owner. LOL.

It's $2 per YEAR.


Loved the cartoon! Sad that it's so accurate, but that's the nature of government run amuck! That's why the framers wanted the Fed to stay small and take care of the important things that a centralized government can do well, like defending the nation in times of war.

As far as the idiot pizza shop owner and the $2 goes...one thing I would never question is another person's right to place value on their work and labor.

That $2 may be chump change to "reasonable" people, but to him, it could be a trophy.

I look at money as a tool to be used. I look at people as unique, special, and deserving of my respect. So the $2 makes the idiot owner happy? Go figure...but that's what makes him unique and special. I respect that it's his $2.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Sorry, verbage wreck. Nothing to see here, move along. :)



LMAO!!
The 0Z GFS lost our storm for next week I see.
The pizza guy prolly had a problem of some sort with the credit card company in the past.
Just a guess.
Quoting SouthALWX:

Like I said, depends on how you define "land" =P

The bulk mass which defines the natural heat sink, as opposed to physical fluids or misstatements. Nothing to see here, move along
448. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
The 0Z GFS lost our storm for next week I see.


I think the GFS is having issues with next weeks system. It's doing the same on the 6Z run.

Meanwhile the 00Z ECMWF...UKMET and CMC and NOGAPS all show an impressive system early next week.


00Z ECMWF.


00Z UKMET.


00Z CMC.


00Z NOGAPS.
440. clinton had a totally balanced budget. bush jr put it in the toilet. but then, clinton was doing his mistress not the nation.
First north Florida, now the Florida straits. GFS got local mets confused, too, per NWS JAX and NWS Melbourne.

451. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
First north Florida, now the Florida straits. GFS got local mets confused, too, per NWS JAX and NWS Melbourne.



True...this from this mornings Melbourne discussion....

"A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY ECMWF TO AFFECT THE
AREA AROUND TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HAVE QUITE A BIT OF
UPPER SUPPORT AND STRONG WIND FIELDS. HAVE MAINTAINED 40% POPS TUE
AND ADDED THUNDER TO ALL AREAS. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FL
IF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY CAN RETURN. AFTER BEING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF LAST NIGHT...THE 00Z GFS IS NOW DEPICTING
A VERY DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WELL TO
THE SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. WE`LL SEE IF THE GFS HAS LATCHED ONTO
SOMETHING BUT THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODEL SO LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE. EXPECT BOTH MODELS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
EVENTUALLY...HOPEFULLY SOONER THAN LATER."
leave your bathing suit at home its cold out there peace
453. IKE
I'm at 30.9...my morning low.
We reached 26.9.. Brrrr.

The inconsistency of the GFS is puzzling me. Does the ECMWF solution support the same cold temps the GFS supported?
455. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
We reached 26.9.. Brrrr.

The inconsistency of the GFS is puzzling me. Does the ECMWF solution support the same cold temps the GFS supported?


GFS was having problems like this a couple of weeks ago....was discounted and finally came around to the other models.

From the Tallahassee morning discussion....

"THE 00Z GFS AND EURO BOTH KEEP US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM.
NOW...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN PRE RUN AND WELL
SOUTH OF ECMWF..SO IT BACKS OFF FURTHER ON LOCAL IMPACTS.
CONVERSELY...THE EURO WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE NRN FRINGES APPROACHING OUR COASTAL WATERS ALSO HAS A MUCH
LARGER MOISTURE FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
INTO WED MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS SUGGEST
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STILL A TAD TOO WARM
TO SUPPORT SNOW ALTHO THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE
APPROACH EVENT. IF THE EURO VERIFIES...THIS IS A MORE POTENT STORM
SYSTEM THAN THE GULF LOW THAT CROSSED ON SAT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA. IT ALSO WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (RIVER RISES) AND VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS
BETWEEN GULF LOW TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH TO OUR NORTH. IF CONDS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP...THIS COULD YIELD SHARP
CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE OVER SHORT DISTANCES AS WELL AS BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATER. AGAIN
INCONSISTENCY WITH MODELS LEADS ME TO SHY AWAY FROM SOLID PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. AFTER THE LOW LIFTS NEWD BY BY TUES AFTN...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS DOMINATED THE NE GULF
TUES EVE THRU THURS.

WILL SHOW SCT POPS WITH SW-NE GRADIENT MON NIGHT THRU TUES AFTN
OTHERWISE NIL POPS. THIS IS CLOSER TO ECMWF POPS AS OPPOSED TO GFS
WHICH SHOWS WDLY SCT-LO SCT POPS. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BOTH GULF LOWS (ENTRENCHED IN COOL SECTOR) MON INTO TUES...
OTHERWISE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGHS BUILDING IN...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CP AIRMASS OUTBREAKS. THUS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU
PERIOD. INLAND CLIMO IS MIN TEMPS IN LOW-MID 40S AND MAX TEMPS
AROUND 70. SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH MINS AROUND 30 DEGREES
YIELDING A LIGHT FREEZE WITH COLDEST MINS REMAINING IN THE MID 30S
THRU THE PERIOD. INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND
60 NRN TIER OF SE ALA/SW GA."

a'ways back, maybe sometime yesterday afternoon, early evening- there were some questions about the GFS.

Think someone said it had a SEG error? Something to do with the sequential...or exponental..

ahh but yeah, me thinks GFS has got a screw loose.
I'm sure someone else already grabbed this, but this is from NWS JAX- my locals-

ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS THE GULF OF MEX AT SAME TIME.
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW NOW CROSSING
THE FL STRAITS.
THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACRS N FL ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE TREND SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.
Hi, here in Catalonia we had a terrible winterstorm in January 2009 (winter storm Klaus), now that you say that this weekend there could be a repeat of last year's disastrous storm, I wonder why local TV and media in general here in Barcelona do not mention this threat at all??
459. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
a'ways back, maybe sometime yesterday afternoon, early evening- there were some questions about the GFS.

Think someone said it had a SEG error? Something to do with the sequential...or exponental..

ahh but yeah, me thinks GFS has got a screw loose.


It's global warmings fault.
bingo ike! you got the first smile of the day award!

We used to laugh at the CMC...now it's the GFS that looks like it might need a week in rehab.

Ya'll have a blessed day- peace!
461. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
bingo ike! you got the first smile of the day award!

We used to laugh at the CMC...now it's the GFS that looks like it might need a week in rehab.

Ya'll have a blessed day- peace!


L8R.

Down to 30.4.
morning all, and Ike that is excatly what i thought you would say. LOL 37.8 at the house this morning.

Enjoying snow in nyc!
Quoting Congost:
Hi, here in Catalonia we had a terrible winterstorm in January 2009 (winter storm Klaus), now that you say that this weekend there could be a repeat of last year's disastrous storm, I wonder why local TV and media in general here in Barcelona do not mention this threat at all??
over here in the us we are getting images of theterrible floods near portugal is it the northern or more populated lisbon area? the waters around latin america seem warmer than normal might have a early start to the rainy season.
Meanwhile, global SSTs:

The Gulf Stream continues to be diverted west-southwestwards due to the cold water intrusion to its north. The <20C zone of the Humboldt is now pointed north-northeastward, hugging the coast and meeting head-on with an area above 26C in northern Chile.

Good Morning... 33 in Tallahassee this morning and no short-term releif in sight right now for the chilly mornings. At least the Azalias will not bloom early this year & be around when Springtime Tallahassee rolls around in April...Also, all of the rain has kept pollen at bay so far......The Wife is not sneezing as much unlike dryer/warmer Februarys the past few years when the cars were covered with the green "slime"....
This next one for the NE is being called a "snowicane." LOL...
Quoting aquak9:
I'm sure someone else already grabbed this, but this is from NWS JAX- my locals-

ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACRS THE GULF OF MEX AT SAME TIME.
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SFC LOW NOW CROSSING
THE FL STRAITS.
THE ECMWF TRACKS THE LOW ACRS N FL ON TUESDAY
WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE TREND SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.


I live in your area too aquak what does this mean?
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Re 2012:

Link


Should something like that happen, I don't think people are going to be standing around doing nothing about it.

We have things that can help ease the loss of the power grid until it's fixed.

At the top of my list, we plug in the Energizer Bunny for a few days....
Anybody that is looking at the GFS and saying where is this big storm on Tuesday then don't worry because the GFS is WRONG. Every single one of the other models show this low going over C or N FL Tuesday as a powerhouse storm. Storm will rapidly intensify by late Monday, come across FL and then target the Carolina coast as a 980 milibar low. Get ready because a SOUTHEASTCANE maybe on the way after the snowicane leaves.
Quoting IKE:


GFS was having problems like this a couple of weeks ago....was discounted and finally came around to the other models.

From the Tallahassee morning discussion....

"THE 00Z GFS AND EURO BOTH KEEP US ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS STORM.
NOW...THE LATEST GFS RUN IS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH THAN PRE RUN AND WELL
SOUTH OF ECMWF..SO IT BACKS OFF FURTHER ON LOCAL IMPACTS.
CONVERSELY...THE EURO WHICH BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH
THE NRN FRINGES APPROACHING OUR COASTAL WATERS ALSO HAS A MUCH
LARGER MOISTURE FIELD WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
INTO WED MORNING. PARTIAL THICKNESS AND 850MB TEMP ANALYSIS SUGGEST
A BRIEF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE BUT BOUNDARY LAYER STILL A TAD TOO WARM
TO SUPPORT SNOW ALTHO THIS NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS WE
APPROACH EVENT. IF THE EURO VERIFIES...THIS IS A MORE POTENT STORM
SYSTEM THAN THE GULF LOW THAT CROSSED ON SAT WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVING THROUGH THE PENINSULA. IT ALSO WOULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (RIVER RISES) AND VERY TIGHT GRADIENTS
BETWEEN GULF LOW TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH TO OUR NORTH. IF CONDS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP...THIS COULD YIELD SHARP
CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE OVER SHORT DISTANCES AS WELL AS BRISK AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WATER. AGAIN
INCONSISTENCY WITH MODELS LEADS ME TO SHY AWAY FROM SOLID PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. AFTER THE LOW LIFTS NEWD BY BY TUES AFTN...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS DOMINATED THE NE GULF
TUES EVE THRU THURS.

WILL SHOW SCT POPS WITH SW-NE GRADIENT MON NIGHT THRU TUES AFTN
OTHERWISE NIL POPS. THIS IS CLOSER TO ECMWF POPS AS OPPOSED TO GFS
WHICH SHOWS WDLY SCT-LO SCT POPS. LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
BOTH GULF LOWS (ENTRENCHED IN COOL SECTOR) MON INTO TUES...
OTHERWISE DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGHS BUILDING IN...COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND CP AIRMASS OUTBREAKS. THUS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THRU
PERIOD. INLAND CLIMO IS MIN TEMPS IN LOW-MID 40S AND MAX TEMPS
AROUND 70. SAT NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST WITH MINS AROUND 30 DEGREES
YIELDING A LIGHT FREEZE WITH COLDEST MINS REMAINING IN THE MID 30S
THRU THE PERIOD. INLAND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EXCEPT AROUND
60 NRN TIER OF SE ALA/SW GA."



Same exact situation as 2 weeks ago and we now what happened then but this storm may have more upper air dynamics this time around so where it is cold there maybe enough forcing to produce a big snow event on it NW side.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Anybody that is looking at the GFS and saying where is this big storm on Tuesday then don't worry because the GFS is WRONG. Every single one of the other models show this low going over C or N FL Tuesday as a powerhouse storm. Storm will rapidly intensify by late Monday, come across FL and then target the Carolina coast as a 980 milibar low. Get ready because a SOUTHEASTCANE maybe on the way after the snowicane leaves.

but no snow in north central florida right? or is it just rain and wind.
Quoting doabarrelroll:

but no snow in north central florida right? or is it just rain and wind.


Just heavy rain and wind with some possiblity of severe wx but I think the biggest issue for C FL will be heavy rain and strong winds.
475. IKE
From the Jackson,MS. morning discussion....

"A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF THE APPROACHING
MID/UPPER WAVE WILL BE A BROAD AND DEEP CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THROUGH SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN VERTICALLY-STACKED AND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE
SURFACE LOW HAVING A MEAN CENTER OVER SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. GOING INTO
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CMC...NEARLY EVERY
MEMBER OF THE CMC ENSEMBLES...AND A HANDFUL OF THE MEMBERS OF THE
GEFS ALL KICK THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OFF THE EAST COAST...MAKING WAY
FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE TO TAKE AN EASTWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH THE STRONGEST ASCENT PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY.

WHAT THE GFS AND SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO WITH THESE
FEATURES IS RATHER QUESTIONABLE. THESE MODELS ENTIRELY DECOUPLE THE
NORTHEAST CONUS CYCLONE...WITH THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW MERGING WITH A
NORTHEASTWARD-RACING CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC THUS
ALLOWING THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LAG BEHIND OVER INLAND
AREAS. GIVEN THE WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE IN
THE GFS/GEFS...THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE WOULD BE
SUPPRESSED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS
INDICATING THE GREATEST SUPPRESSION. THIS SUPPRESSION WOULD BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AT
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHEAST CONUS CIRCULATION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED DECOUPLING AND WESTWARD LAG EVIDENT IN THE GFS/GEFS
HAS LITTLE BACKING FROM ANY OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THE PHYSICAL
JUSTIFICATION FOR THIS DECOUPLING IS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN LACK OF
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACTING ON THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION AND ITS
ANTECEDENT WELL-DEVELOPED VERTICAL STRUCTURE.

THUS...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL DISCOUNT THE GUIDANCE WHICH
SUPPRESSES THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH BY A
LAGGING MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS...AND WILL FOLLOW A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLES.
AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF ALONG 27N/28N. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE FALL OF 5 MB IN 6 HOURS BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z ON
TUESDAY...AND THIS SEEMS ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
INTERESTINGLY...BECAUSE THE GFS SUPPRESSES THE UPPER WAVE SO FAR
SOUTH...ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A TRACK FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO WESTERN CUBA. THIS SOLUTION
IS CERTAINLY AN OUTLIER...AND MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK
MUCH FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH A CLUSTER ALONG 26N.

SINCE THE PRECIP FORECAST WILL BE TIED TO THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW...THE GFS IS INDICATING NO PRECIP ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS
REGION WITH VERY LOW POPS FROM MEX GUIDANCE...AND THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE BEING DISCOUNTED WITH FORECAST POPS RAISED WELL ABOVE MEX
GUIDANCE. FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC/CMC ENSEMBLES...PRECIP
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW TO
MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN
THE ECMWF IS INDICATING WET-BULB ZERO (WBZ) HEIGHTS BELOW 1500 FT.
HOWEVER...STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING DUE TO FORCED ASCENT AND MELTING
PROCESSES ALOFT COULD COOL THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERE EVEN MORE.
OR...THE LOW COULD TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH GIVING A
LARGER PART OF THE AREA LOWER WBZ HEIGHTS. IN THESE CASES...SNOW
WOULD BECOME A MORE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. AND IF THIS
OCCURS...STRONG ASCENT THROUGHOUT SATURATED AND DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONES APPROACHING 100 MB THICK WOULD BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF HEAVY
SNOW. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONCERN FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...A LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH
WOULD RESULT IN WARMER THERMAL PROFILES AND MOSTLY RAIN.
ULTIMATELY...A LOT CAN CHANGE WITH REGARD TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE NATURE OF THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS...MENTION IS BEING WITHHELD FROM THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NOW."
Quoting Jeff9641:


Just heavy rain and wind with some possiblity of severe wx but I think the biggest issue for C FL will be heavy rain and strong winds.


thanks!
The ongoing pattern of these Gulf Lows reminds me of "no name" storm in March of 1993 which hammered Florida with hurricane force winds and moved up the Eastern Seabord as a wicked Noreaster........We might have something like that in the coming months blowing through. I was in Orlando visitng a friend when the 93 one blew through. Lot's of tornadoes and wind damage in Central Florida on that one.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I thought it was a love-hate relationship. Like the one we have with England.


Hi Aussie, Got in on this a little late. I think your interpretation is the right one. Many Canadians bear significant animosity toward Americans. To many Canadians, America is the proverbial 800 pound gorilla. From the Canadian perspective, America is large, noisy, and overbearing. Worse than that, it generally ignores Canada and is ignorant of Canadian history, culture, politics, etc. (Just think about recent health reform arguments in US, with people being terrified about the possibility of adopting a 'socialist' Canadian system.) The combination of perceived boorishness and ignorance on the part of their American neighbors makes it less likely that the Canadians will cheer for the US against a supposedly more 'civilized' rival.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The ongoing pattern of these Gulf Lows reminds me of "no name" storm in March of 1993 which hammered Florida with hurricane force winds and moved up the Eastern Seabord as a wicked Noreaster........We might have something like that in the coming months blowing through. I was in Orlando visitng a friend when the 93 one blew through. Lot's of tornadoes and wind damage in Central Florida on that one.


I agree the pattern maybe setting itself up for a monster storm to come out the GULF even in 1993 we didn't have this many gulf lows.
While I agree that it will be a significant snowstorm for the Northeast, even close to a blizzard, good old Bastardi hypin' it up again.

This from the AP

The National Weather Service criticized State College, Pa.-based Accuweather Inc. for referring to the storm that way and for saying it would be "hurricane-like" and a "monster." NWS meteorologist Craig Evanego said the terminology was "almost inciting the public, inciting panic."

Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Hi Aussie, Got in on this a little late. I think your interpretation is the right one. Many Canadians bear significant animosity toward Americans. To many Canadians, America is the proverbial 800 pound gorilla. From the Canadian perspective, America is large, noisy, and overbearing. Worse than that, it generally ignores Canada and is ignorant of Canadian history, culture, politics, etc. (Just think about recent health reform arguments in US, with people being terrified about the possibility of adopting a 'socialist' Canadian system.) The combination of perceived boorishness and ignorance on the part of their American neighbors makes it less likely that the Canadians will cheer for the US against a supposedly more 'civilized' rival.


I hate to admit it... but you nailed it perfectly.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I hate to admit it... but you nailed it perfectly.


Thanks. But as long as we would rather be proud of being a 'stupid American' than be diligent about being responsibly informed, I see little likelihood of change - in either direction.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Thanks. But as long as we would rather be proud of being a 'stupid American' than be diligent about being responsibly informed, I see little likelihood of change - in either direction.


Here is a link you might enjoy... this is from the news coverage at the start of the Olympics.

Tom Brokaw Explains Canada To Americans
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Should begin to see a change in the pattern after mid March.


Morning Storm... tell me this year is going to be a bit more active.. this blog will not survive another slow year like the last one... it will self implode.
It's in the 40s this a.m. in ECF.
Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 1 sec ago
44.6 °F
Clear Windchill: 41 °F Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 34 °F Wind: 7.0 mphfrom the WNW
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph Pressure: 30.04 in (Rising)

All clear on the western front for now.
Hey everyone, been a while. I've been extremely busy with stuff..
The Superstorm is starting for people up north, power outages, road closers, and many more as a possible 975 mlb. low (possibly lower) busts into Long Island, which will calm down winds for them since they will be under the center for most of the time. The 1993 Superstorm was down to 960 mlb. This is a life-threatening storm. My prayers go out to everybody in this historic storm. Would not surprise me that the low bombs down to 970 or below. INteresting storm for weather people like me.
Quoting StormW:


I have no doubts, this hurricane season will keep us busy.


In a morbid way, thank god I guess.. hopefully lots of open ocean storms to watch and chat about... not some of the other choice subjects like last year.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The ongoing pattern of these Gulf Lows reminds me of "no name" storm in March of 1993 which hammered Florida with hurricane force winds and moved up the Eastern Seabord as a wicked Noreaster........We might have something like that in the coming months blowing through. I was in Orlando visitng a friend when the 93 one blew through. Lot's of tornadoes and wind damage in Central Florida on that one.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Here is a link you might enjoy... this is from the news coverage at the start of the Olympics.

Tom Brokaw Explains Canada To Americans


I loved that! See my comments on your blog.
Quoting leftovers:
over here in the us we are getting images of theterrible floods near portugal is it the northern or more populated lisbon area? the waters around latin america seem warmer than normal might have a early start to the rainy season.


I think it's in the southern bit, as I seem to remember that Andalusia (on the Spanish side) has had so far a very wet winter with significant flooding and local services disruption. However, here in Catalonia (around Barcelona and the Pyrenees)we are now having a great taste of Spring weather after the wintry weather we have had recently...STILL, no news of big winter storm hitting Europe over here!!
Quoting leftovers:
over here in the us we are getting images of theterrible floods near portugal is it the northern or more populated lisbon area? the waters around latin america seem warmer than normal might have a early start to the rainy season.


I think it's in the southern bit, as I seem to remember that Andalusia (on the Spanish side) has had so far a very wet winter with significant flooding and local services disruption. However, here in Catalonia (around Barcelona and the Pyrenees)we are now having a great taste of Spring weather after the wintry weather we have had recently...STILL, no news of big winter storm hitting Europe over here!!
Man, the blog must be broken... Someone shake this thing...
I agree Jeff. Much too much warm air coming into this system for places like NYC and Boston to get much snow from this. But the winds though, that's a different story.
Quoting Seastep:


Absolutely correct, Patrap. An accurate data set doesn't lie.

Something changed in 1998. Pretty flat before and pretty flat after. All years are at or below 1997 before and all are at or above after. A new "normal" happened in a single year.

Based on 1979-1997 sat temps, and I also took a peek at some of the GISS temp data for kicks and will be doing a full blog on that, I predict this new normal should be around until 2019, based on initial analysis back to 1957, and then a new "normal" materializes. Up or down.

More detailed blog entry to follow.



Didn't they already identify this change? Check out this link.

"The effects of aerosols in brown clouds are particularly insidious because they seem to have the opposite effect of greenhouse gases. “By sheer, dumb luck, we are adding particles that are trapping sunlight and cooling the planet,” Ramanathan says, but these particles only mask global warming without eliminating it. A sudden drop in global air pollution would be like removing the mask, he explains, and the climate may play catch-up to compensate. “Many of us, including myself, are concerned we could see a huge acceleration of global warming if we unmask the beast.” Yet ignoring air pollution is not the solution either, as studies clearly show its serious health effects, he says. “Air pollution has to be reduced, if not eliminated. It's just a Faustian bargain we have made without realizing it.”

I believe the use and elimination of aerosols resulted in the unmasking which the writer mentions.
Quoting postitcast:
I agree Jeff. Much too much warm air coming into this system for places like NYC and Boston to get much snow from this. But the winds though, that's a different story.


I'm in NYC.

Four inches already. The snow is heavy enough to make it extremely difficult to get around. Worse, ice is now packed under it, as the temperature gets cold enough to freeze the first few coats of rain and snow.
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