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Ernesto strengthens as it approaches the Carolinas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 31, 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto is gathering strength, headed for a landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border late this afternoon. Radar animations from the Charleston radar shows a steadily organizing system, with a strong band of heavy rain wrapping around the west side of the center. Ernesto may have a partial eyewall and be a strong tropical storm with 65-70 mph winds at landfall. Wind observations from offshore buoys have been as high as 30 mph sustatined with gusts to 42 mph this morning. The Hurricane Hunters left the storm at 6am EDT this morning, and reported a pressure of 996 mb before they left. This is not far from Ernesto's 990 mb pressure it had when it was a hurricane with 75 mph winds south of Haiti. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter is due in the storm by noon, and an Air Force airplane at 2pm EDT.


Figure 1. Current long-range radar out of Charleston.

The north side of Ernesto is under some significant wind shear of 20 knots, thanks to southwesterly upper-level winds from the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north. As Ernesto moves further north, the shear will increase, likely putting a limit on the amount of intensification the storm can do. Water temperatures under the storm are about 30 C, which is very favorable for intensification. The eastern portion of the storm is over the axis of the very warm Gulf Stream Current.

Hurricane John
Hurricane John is a dangerous Category 3 hurricane this morning, just 100 miles off the coast of Mexico. The storm is moving parallel to the coast, but any deviation to the right would bring the intense core to the coast, making it one of the strongest Pacific hurricanes ever to strike Mexico. The forecast track of the storm takes it very near to the tip of the Baja Peninsula, so John has a chance to make a double hit on Mexico. John could be the strongest hurricane to affect Baja since Hurricane Liza of 1976 brushed the peninsula as a Category 4 storm. Only seven Category 4 Eastern Pacific hurricane have hit Mexico in recorded history. Wind shear is light and forecast to remain low, and sea surface temperatures (Figure 2) are a very warm 30 C under the hurricane--about 1-2 degrees C above normal for this time of year. John's strength is likely to be controlled by difficult to predict eyewall replacement cycles over the next three days, and could be a Category 4 hurricane when it encounters Baja. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate John at 11am PDT today.


Figure 2. Current sea surface temperatures along the Pacific coast. Temperatures in the Gulf of California may not be accurate, due to difficulties retrieving the temperature via satellite measurements in such a narrow body of water. The red line separating blue colors from yellow marks the 26 C isotherm--the critical temperature needed to sustain a tropical cyclone. Note the very cool waters extending from the California border southwards along the coast. This long stretch of cool water will make it difficult for John to hold together if it tries to approach California. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Is John a threat to the U.S.?
In yesterday's blog, I discussed in detail the historical record of the five Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that have affected the U.S. with tropical storm force winds. The latest model guidance still suggests the possibility John could come far enough north to affect the U.S., but it is looking increasingly unlikely. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in and force John to the west about the time the storm reaches Baja. The GFDL model, however, takes the storm about halfway up the Gulf of California before turning it westward across Baja and away from North America.

Super Typhoon Ioke
The incredible Category 4 Super Typhoon Ioke made almost a direct hit on tiny Wake Island in the Pacific, passing just to the northeast of the island. The island experienced the eyewall of the left front quadrant of the super typhoon, but probably missed the calm of the eye. Observations from Wake showed winds of 78 mph gusting to 100 mph and a pressure of 934 mb before the instrument failed at 2:18am EDT this morning. Ioke continues to be a borderline Category 4/5 super typhoon, and is not expected to decline to category 3 strength for several more days. This would probably make it the longest-lived Category 4 or higher storm on record anywhere.

African tropical waves
The large spiral of low clouds near 18N 50W surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust continues to spin, and now has some thunderstorm activity near the center. This thunderstorm activity developed last night and stayed on through the morning, an indication that the dry air surrounding this system is starting to dilute. As the environment continues to moisten, this system will have the potential for development. Development would likely not happen until Sunday at the earliest, when it should be near the northern Lesser Antilles Islands.

A tropical wave near 12N 37W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has changed little in organization the past day. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days, but doesn't appear likely.

A spinning area of clouds few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is associated with an upper level low pressure system. Development is not expected of this system.

I'll be back this afternoon with an update. Tonight, I'll be talking live at 8:45pm EDT on the Barometer Bob show, live from northeast Florida:

http://www.barometerbobshow.com/

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yeah, possible it will be studied in a psychology book, but trust me....i have just a "touch" of life experience the comments on here would be laughed at, so i'd say comedy central 20 years from now would be more likely to pick it up, depending on the changing times.....one things for sure, jimmy buffett said it best "you can't reason with hurricane season"
It could like Head Around the outer Banks and strike Delaware and NJ when it turns NW
..some wobbling along is always expected ..but the motion always dampens out through time.Ernesto may still have a plan to stay just offshore and like others say,parellel the coast for some time.Once a good eyewall has formed..warm ssts and good outflow..can be problamatic as to intensity forecast.out past 6 hrs...,,esp into the Overnight hours.
I think landfall between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington SJ. I don't think we will see a hurricane if so just barely. Cloud tops seem to have warmed some in the last hour and the radar presentation hasn't improved. I think Ernesto will probobally weaken a little before landfall. Also I haven't seen any recon yet supporting hurricane strength. Anyway if your chasing SJ stay safe.
StormJunkie...Don't you have too much fun in MYB now!
THERE IS NO CHANCE OF A MB LAND FALL... IT WOULD HAVE TO NW FROM CURRENT LOCATION. IT IS NOW LOOKING AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND POINTS EAST
weatherwannabe
I don't think it is speculation when all the models are in pretty tight agreement and the track is the same since the last update. If the storm were to skirt over the outer banks on this track that would mean the western quadrant would be over warm water and we would be looking at a cat 1 or worse. Do you think no one lives on the outer banks??
StormJunkie you got mail
I STILL say cape hateras
Storm has double in size today and is symmetrical again. Anyone see a possible Cat 2 with some amazing pressure drop? It is over undisturbed waters of Atlantic and Gulf Stream.
Hi, new here but Ernie does seem to be taking a significant jog to the east.
..Ernesto ..out in time..would have to navigate the N carolina outer banks first..then dog leg left to make a move up the Ne seaboard..hes proven to be a poor navigator in the Carribean, but this track ..can yaw left later..and then all bets would be off.
Accuweather is saying a certain Cat 1, and it is obvious to see why.
Posted By: MiamiFisher at 7:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
What a travel log for Ernesto...

2 days and 3 nights in the lesser antilles

ocean front view for a day in Hispanola

1 day 2 nights in Southern Cuba

Then its off to Sugar Loaf Key, Florida

1 day and 1 night in Miami

A cruise from Port Canaveral in Orlando to the beaches of North Carolina...

Sounds like a prize on Wheel of Fortune or something!


LMAO
Posted By: hookedontropics at 7:02 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
All of the new models have shited significantly east. Only one left making landfall in SC and it is the oldest model.
Report As: Obscene | Spam | Copyright

link?
Fran
Great value stay
Killdevilmax,

So are we still own with our predictions? You said south of Holden Beach and I was saying north of Holden Beach. I think we agreed on Cat 1 status, correct?
If this think keeps intensifying like he is, and shifting to the east, then Cape Hatteras had better be battening down the hatches! I'd hate for them to be "surprised" with a cat 1 or 2 in the early morning hours of friday!
525. amd
this storm is definitely no longer a dud. It seems that its going to be very soon that this storm becomes a hurricane.

Low shear + Gulfstream + Ability to stay offshore as of right now = Significant Strengthening possible
Where's Cantore?
528. Xion
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
what dos Ernesto's Eye look like is it a pin hole eye


You're joking....right?
MSNBC reports that Ernesto has taken a jog East. the WeatherPlus meteorologist is saying they will shift the track east and is worried that this will get stronger. Now I'm thinking this may skirt the east coast. The current path almost shows it going NW, which it isn't
Miami....you forgot, "aerial view of didney land" and adventurous tour of the glades, LMAO
Every time a new advisory comes out the winds go up 10 MPH, and the pressure goes down 1 MB! Who agrees with me that at the 5 PM advisory the winds will be 80 MPH?
I don't think Ernesto's "eye" is really a pinhole eye. I think it's a partial eyewall, with some precipitation being brought in on the other side... in short, it's not much of an eye, if it really is an eye at all.
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part One.Tropical Storm Ernesto
Thursday, August 31, 2006.......


Tropical Storm Ernesto is moving up the Eastern Seaboard at 17mph. Ernesto is near hurricane strength with wind of 70mph and a MCP of 993mbars. The storm is riding along a Upper level trough in association with a front (See Part 2 of the Tropical Discussion).

Ernesto will continue up the coast and might make landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina, bringing gusty winds and heavy rains.

It is a possibility that Ernesto makes landfall as a Category One Hurricane of about 75 or 80mph.

Surface Observations
Wave heights approaching South Carolina/North Carolina will be on the rise later this afternoon and into tonight. Waves will be as high as 4-5m (10-15ft). People should exercise caution before getting into the water as there is also a risk for rip currents.

Sea surface temps in the area are above 80degrees, which likely fuel Ernesto until it reaches land.

Rainfall amounts will be as high as 5-10inces in some spots directly in the path of Ernesto.

Buoys/Ships
41008-1005.6mbars, NE at 25knots.
41012-1003mbars, WNW at 30knots.
V20W4-1012, SSE at 20knots.
(See Map Below for more buoys/ships observation, near Ernesto.

Land-Based Stations at 3PM
Brunswick Glynco, GA (BQK)
Pressure:29.78inches
Winds: NW at 6knots

Hilton Head Awos, SC (HXD)
Pressure:29.73inches
Winds: N at 22knots

Charlestown, SC (CHS)
Pressure:1006mbars
Winds: NNE at 17knots


Stay Safe Wherever You Are

Part Two deals with the rest of the tropics.

By Weather456..15:26UTC

miami,

thas pretty good!!!

I'd take that vacation.......
close enough on both Fran. What's a couple miles or mph.
I live in Chesapeake, VA, not too far from the coast, right across the NC border. What should we expect in this location?
Just remember Manhattan.It Could Happen Tomorrow.


Drum Roll for emphasis.
Killdevil....I did not mean to minimalize the potential impact of this storm on the outer banks...My thought was that there is usually a great concern for inland flooding with these type of rain events in this region.....
MSNBC reports that Ernesto has taken a jog East. the WeatherPlus meteorologist is saying they will shift the track east and is worried that this will get stronger. Now I'm thinking this may skirt the east coast. The current path almost shows it going NW, which it isn't

...and the saga continues
546. HCW
This thing is now moving off the NE meaning that it will be over water longer than expected. I am bumping up my intensity forecast to 80 to 85mph at landfall . If it wasn't for the shear this would easily be a cat 2 cane .

HARDCOREWEATHER.COM

Link
Posted By: Nickelback at 7:25 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Every time a new advisory comes out the winds go up 10 MPH, and the pressure goes down 1 MB! Who agrees with me that at the 5 PM advisory the winds will be 80 MPH?


I agree on maybe 75. I have been screaming Cat 1 since this morning.

Patrap -

ROFLMAO!
to funny patrap
Oh, never mind. It was just a wobble. I didn't know that storms did that.
I say it makes land fall on Ocracoke Island w/ winds of 85 mph or so
Yes, I had that same vision Patrap..was he parallel with the water holding on with one hand and speaking into the microphone with the other? That's how it was in my vision. He's a pretty strong built guy you know.
LOL Miamifisher... At least Ernesto gets to enjoy the ride! I'm still wondering what we're gonna discuss after Ernesto's gone... LB is still out there (17N 52W).
Posted By: PIRSRON at 7:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Vortextrance, you are wrong


Could be. We shall see.
miami

was he serious?
ric - are you there - I didn't REALLY MEAN run...you can come back - I think you're needed!
weathermanwannabe
yea flooding for sure. It's already flooding and not from Ernesto yet. I think OBX is out of the woods if it holds it's present track. Inland NC and near landfall are in for it.
Admin Notice When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged as Spam and ignored.
No mention of the forward speed - at 17mph, couldn't that mean the NE quad may have a small area hitting upwards of 95mph or so?
People on the outer banks...I am nervous for you. I took the ferry to ocracoke once during a routine summer t'storm, and that was enough to turn me white as a sheet. i can't imagine being on those little sandbars during a real TS or hurricane...
Isn't Ernesto something..the storm is strengthening in the face of considerable shear and close proximity to land. But that really should not surprise anyone. It did the exact same thing in the Caribbean.
565. Xion
Let's debate the "pinhole-ness" of Ernesto's "eye". Oh...wait, Ernesto doesn't have one. But, it looks like he wants one. I say a Category One hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80-85 mph by landfall. I have been wrong before though.
Posted By: kilgores97 at 7:27 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
I live in Chesapeake, VA, not too far from the coast, right across the NC border. What should we expect in this location?


I'd prepare for a ctegory higher than your local meteorologist is calling for. I'd prepare for hurricane winds just in case. Who wants to be caught off-guard?
And those that think the shear is low check the cimss analysis. 20-30 knots.
Link
Posted By: Xion at 12:25 PM PDT on August 31, 2006.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:10 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
what dos Ernesto's Eye look like is it a pin hole eye

You're joking....right?



LOL no i said that dos Ernesto's have a Eye and it is a pin hole eye we are seeing more and more of them now
Posted By: AM91091 at 7:30 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
I say it makes land fall on Ocracoke Island w/ winds of 85 mph or so


Not to bash your prediction but do you know where that's at? It's kind of tucked away between cape lookout and cape hatteras...
Let's not get Too carried away here....Last few frames of Ernesto....

The eye has fallen apart and Cloud Tops have warmed a bit
LB is ALIVE!!! Check out the tiny speck of convection starting up again east of COC on LB at 17N 52-53W! What a monster, LOL!
"Pinhole eye" has been a running joke all season...every ULL and tropical wave so far has had one...
574. Xion
Can somebody please tell me where they are getting the new recon reports from?
Every so often somebody posts one, and I am not talking about the vortex messages or anything from the NHC's page.
This has a nice description of the cold core intensification process. It's fairly easy to read and has good graphics. I highly reccommend it for novice to more advanced cane lovers

Very Good Link about intensification
The storm is expanding right now, I bet for a big pressure drop at 5PM, if it has enough time over water we will see a clear eye. no pun intended
Thanks Cyclone. I will read through and get back to you. From my skimming, it seems to be a rather intriguing idea!

32*
I'm just looking at a basic NC map. I meant that area of Cape Hatteras and Cape Lookout. I think anyone North of Myrtle Beach is fair game right now
A pinhole eye shouldn't be able to form with Ernesto, with all the shear and restricted outflow.
I live in a 3rd floor, N facing apartment and remember when Isabel came thru. Even though we didn't get hurricane force winds, the whole building shook. Can I reasonably expect the same thing this time? And does anyone know how much of a difference there is between ground wind speed and up at my level (30-40 feet)?
584. Xion
Alright I get it, it's a running joke. Geeesh.
is there any chance of Ernesto missing the SC/NC Coast and hitting the NC/VA Line instead?
5PM advisory will change hurricane watches to warnings.
Patrap...think we've been cautioned for off topic banter. How 'bout getting technical and tell us what's going to happen with Ernesto.
C'mon man, lay sumting on us.
591. Xion
Cantore was fat!!! That must have been back in the day when Lyons actually forecasted hurricanes instead of repeating EXACTLY what the NHC said over and over again.
I'm new to this Blog from Fort Walton Beach, FL, some very fun reading you all provide! My kind of weather geeks!
seems like a "Pink" Floyd type of year, ie 1999....
I live at the Jersey Shore and the NWS is predicting 30 mph winds with 45 mph gusts tommorow night
Back to weather,

Do we know exactly where the COC is right now?
kilgores97...think at forty feet wind gusts can be several mph more, even 10-20 mph more than ground level.
Anything more about that stationary front that is between Ernie and the coast???


Heck with it. It is my landlocked redneck opinion that Ernie goes out to see because of that front.

Where am I wrong? (I know that I am somewhere) :) <--- I am smiling
you mean other than following the 2pm advisory on the maps best as possible?
I'll be backfro the 5PM. The NHC will definitely bump up their intensity forecast.
"And does anyone know how much of a difference there is between ground wind speed and up at my level (30-40 feet)?"

The "official" wind speeds you see on WU, the news, etc., are all measured at 10 meters above the ground, approximately 33 feet. So your apartment will see wind speeds much like the official observations. The winds at ground level will be lower.
I hope I'm reading this wrong, and it doesn't say 104kt...

193000 3230 07932 7104 +0048 057016 +153 +134 046018 038 009
fran1983...You will find the COC in the eye that showed up over an hour ago!
ran....i saw a post a while back about that, but images i've been seeing lately have it kinda falling out....do you have something that perhaps i'm not finding on my own?
605. Xion
31/1745 UTC 31.8N 79.1W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO

Not sure if this is new or not but T4.0 now for Dvorak. Same a Hurricane Kristy in EPac.
hugo,

yeah where is it now, it's hard to find on the noaa loops
I'm still thinking it hits mainland NC, maybe just to the east of the official track.
? i went out for a smoke break, hoping randrewl can provide a link for me, b/c the images and loops i've seen don't show extended, just the past 30 min and i'm not seeing anything particularly defined, so perhaps he/she has something of use to me
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:46 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
fran1983...You will find the COC in the eye that showed up over an hour ago!


Yeah that's kind of what an eye is but thanks anyway........
MiamiFisher..that's funny.Actually, I do too, and it's frustrating because I'm a damn Southerner!
Posted By: ForecasterColby at 12:46 PM PDT on August 31, 2006.
I hope I'm reading this wrong, and it doesn't say 104kt...

193000 3230 07932 7104 +0048 057016 +153 +134 046018 038 009


for what storm?
good afternoon all

Ernesto seems to be flexing his muscles this afternoon. Good thing he is running out of sea room

The CATL wave is heating up. Convection has been steadily on the increase today and if the trend continues the outlook for no development today OR Friday may have to change
Check it outLink
The best radar image of the COC I've seen is the NHC long range radar loop out of Charleston, it appears to be establishing itself rather well, 80 MPH minimum at 5 pm.
whew, we're finally getting a break from the rain here in wilmington nc. wrightsville beach had a 44 mph wind gust already from one of the squalls. we also have had 2 tornado warnings. streets flooded, roads closed and yes...my backyard is a lake. looks like I'm gonna have to stop and get some water wings for my dog.
Posted By: rwdobson at 7:50 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
I'm still thinking it hits mainland NC, maybe just to the east of the official track.


Totally agree. I still think between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Further east than that would surprise me.
appears almost due east of hilton head/beaufort area
Colby..I left my algorithm interpolator in my pants pocket..and put it in the washer! Are the readings 104 knots or not? No pun there.
is there any chance of Ernesto missing the SC/NC Coast and hitting the NC/VA Line instead?
Recon is near the center, nothing close to hurricane strength so far. However the strongest winds have been east of center so its not a very good read on the strength yet.
nevere mine
Earlier I think there was 72mph flight level winds.
if ur a memebr of this site u can have radar loops up to 40 frames or about 3-4 hrs. this is what i ahve been using


there was a small eye like feature that hs since closed up.

Link
Ernesto wow T # 4.0 that and 104kt winds i dont no what that would be in mph but this storm is cooking
hugo

I give up on this squad........
charleston radar is now worthless, move to wilmington

Alright ya'll I am leaving MYB now. Take it easy and for the folks along the NC/SC border stay safe.

Taz, I will give him the message if I see him...lol

StormJunkie.com-Easily find forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more. Look for Erenesto video on the site soon.

SJ
May be a double post.....As I stated yesterday, Ernesto gets my vote for fighter of the season (so far).....However, also note that NHC basically got the call right 24-36 hours ago when they predicted possible strengthening to a hurricane after crossing Florida............
Hey was looking at water vapor loop, why will the storm turn north west instead of following front out to sea?
i see no record of 104kt winds
u do realise recon is flying into hurricane john right now 2. that was likely from that plane not the one in ernesto
oops...StormJunkie.com

I am off. You got mail Lefty!

See ya
SJ
00
URNT12 KNHC 311956
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/19:47:10Z
B. 32 deg 17 min N
078 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1365 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 005 deg 030 kt
G. 271 deg 016 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1518 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305AWRNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 18:54:00 Z
1956 UTC vortex message
Link
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Two...Continue Tropics and Hurricane John.........
Thursday, August 31, 2006.......


An Upper Level trough continues to move west over Eastern Canada bringing both wet moisture to the south of it and snow to the north of it. To the north of trough is an well define Upper Level Ridge centered over Central East Canada.

The Upper Level High/Ridge that was centered over the Continental United States for some time now, no longer sits inland and is now centered east of Georgia in Atlantic Ocean. A broad Upper Level ridge extends into the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Bermuda.
Replacing the High is an Upper level polar trough, extending down from the Jet Stream over Canada, into the Midwest and down to the South-East United States. This trough will be responsible for steering Ernesto east and north (See Part One). At the heart of the trough is an Upper Level Low spinning over Wisconsin. The trough has stretch further south into the Gulf of Mexico, brining some extremely dry air with it to the Louisiana/Texas Gulf Coast area.

This trough is also associated with a stationary front that extends from the Texan/Mexican Border into the Gulf of Mexico, north across the Florida Panhandle, up into the SE United States, exiting near Virginia into the Atlantic Ocean, where the front is still cold in nature. Along with the cold front in this location, a warm front is moving north towards Canada; this helped to produce an Extratropical/Mid-Latitude Cyclone moving NE into the Extreme North Atlantic. Gusty wind will be expected over Nova Scotia, Canada.

The Upper Level Low that was moving towards Texas appears to have merge with the trough coming down from Continental United States.

Numerous scattered showers are found along Central America, southward to NE Colombia, excluding Nicaragua.

Hurricane John brought Tropical Storm-Hurricane conditions to Western Mexico, John will continue to move NNW toward the Baja Peninsula before moving out to sea.

I found a Ship close to John. It measure a pressure of 1005mbars, with cloudy conditions. Winds were out of the North at 10knots. The ship is to the NW of John moving SW.

Wave heights along the coast will be as high as 10m (25ft) and flooding rains of up to 20in or more.

More in Part 3..Which discusses the rest of tropics and tropical waves, as the tropics seems like a complex large area.

By Weather456.....16:01UTC......
Taz, 104kt would be 120mph, but lefty's right, they're flying a John recon too. That was a report from the John flight.
Ernesto has the pressure of a hurricane but the winds have not yet responded to the pressure drop
Ernesto has built a good house this afternoon..as he feeds warm ssts into a well ventilated ..Warm core that is stacked well also.As I mentioned earlier..now motion is the key.If Ernesto can remain imbedded in warm ssts as He parrellels the coast,.the Hurricane(..as I believe it is now..)..become problamatic as to Intensity ..past the next 4-5..hrs.All warned areas need to follow Ernesto..as he may be a much more formidable force..out in time...
31/1745 UTC 31.8N 79.1W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean
ok sj i will.

the fron is stationary. ernesto is xaught in the flow nof the trof and wil head nne till it starts to get absorbed in the trof and rotates around a developing Low pressure system. the front is not pushing out to sea. thats why nc, va, md, pa will get lots of heavy rains. not all form ernesto but he is the catalysts. 10 inches not out the question lots of flodding and high winds from the high pressure system to the east and the ernesto low pressure complex tot he west. messy messy wekkend
Still don't think will see a hurricane folks and the track still looks good to me. Cloud tops continue to warm and Ernie continues to move into higher shear. Pressure did drop a little so minimal hurricane isn't out of the question but I don't see it hapening.
http://www.wcbd.com/midatlantic/cbd/news/vipir_chat.html

Charleston is getting soaked
648. HCW
How low can he go ?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

879
URNT12 KNHC 311956
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/19:47:10Z
B. 32 deg 17 min N
078 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1365 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 005 deg 030 kt
G. 271 deg 016 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1518 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305AWRNESTO OB 07
MAX FL WIND 60 KT NE QUAD 18:54:00 Z



HARDCOREWEATHER.COM

Link
Ernesto is getting his act together. Prob a good chance that we will see Hurricane Warning and a Hurricane again tonight. If it does go east, it will delay landfall and give it a break to take advantage of his momentum to get more strength. Lets hope he just goes out to see if he is considering getting stronger.
On another note, is the wave down in the CNTAL ATANTIC getting organized and spinning a bit or is it just its in one of those spots again??
It is paralleling the coast right now according to the Radar. Landfall further east than NHC track. Propapble landfall in central NC coast. Anyone agree?
looking at that radar, it looks like it's heading right toward wilmington, or maybe a little to the east of it.
benerica

The convection in tha CATL wave has been on the increase since this morning. A few hrs however do not a trend make. We need to watch it for at least another 12 to be able to say with any confidence that it is in fact getting organised.
Blow up come and go with time of day etc. but this is the best it has looked so far as the "reds" are starting to show in the cloud tops
yes kabraxis what i been saying all alone NC sticks out much further east than SC
Hello, Anyone? is there any chance of Ernesto missing the SC/NC Coast and hitting the NC/VA Line instead, or atleast mid NC?
Hello! How is every--WHAT THE HECK IS THAT???

IS THAT ERNIE???
" blow ups " re previous post
mid nc is a possibality
a little east is going to be the crystal coast, this is a fairly large error in prediction.
Posted By: Nickelback at 8:13 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Hello, Anyone? is there any chance of Ernesto missing the SC/NC Coast and hitting the NC/VA Line instead, or atleast mid NC?


I absolutely could hit toward the middle coast of NC. Don't any way the NC/VA coast gets it though.
Posted By: MiamiFisher at 8:09 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Why do yall call it Ernie? We didn't call Chris "Cristobal" or John "Juan"

LOL, I don't know, I guess we are just to lazy to type out Ernesto.
Will the wave in ctrl atl move into the dry area, or will the humid area around it move west as well giving it better conditions? Also, whats the shear like in the Atlantic? Can I have a link to a shear map?
Every hour it looks like a regional flood disaster may be setting up.
Its funny 1900 hurricane. On that satellite, if you check the box for gusts, I have the highest gust, and I am in Norfolk, VA!! 24mph. One of our neighborhoods lost power, but i dont think its storm related...
PIR it's already a hurricane? what, do you have a recon plane flying out there or something? what are you basing that on?
669. Xion
Wow...it's kind of hard to believe that we're paying so much attention to a 901 mb tropical storm. Last year, by this time, anything with a pressure over 950 mb wasn't worth looking at and low and sub-900 pressures seemed "routine".
This definately has been the hardest storm in a while to make projections about, both in track and in intensity.
If it continues to move in a more easterly direction i think we could be talking about a just west of outer banks landfall. The farther east it goes it looks like the worse it will be due to its steadt strengthening.
Pirsron..and it is the water more than the wind that does more damage with these tropical systems.
PIRSON I have said it could be a minimal hurricane but why are you saying it already is. I have yet to see any evidence of it. Have hurricane winds been measured by recon. If they have I haven't seen it. Again it may be but I prefer to see the recon.
..I believe the wind field has expanded in response to the down pulse of that first Inner wall..collapsing.The maturing stom is about to take its second breath.The area of Tstorms circling the coc..about 50nm around the old core is a reflection of the Highest winds..the system has xpanded and may maintain its 991pressure into the next up-pulse.But it has to remain offshore.
It's already a Hurricane watch the 5pm update

Very close to being one, 50/50 chance either way right now.
Storm does appear to be moving NE, not N or NNE. How far before it turns to the north, historical tracks would take it off the coast.
I'm in Hampton, VA. and we have 27 mph winds with 32 mph gusts...damn, we were going to have nasty weather the next few days anyway, Ernie makes it all the worse.
Link
In the last couple frames, did the enter go due East almost? It appears that it either went ENE, or the center redeveloped.
682. Xion
It's a hurricane, with the 2 mb pressure drop and increasing flight level winds, they really have no choice but to update it at 5. The news channels will go crazy over it now that John Mark Karr is out of their sights.
Posted By: Ineluki at 8:21 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
I'm in Hampton, VA. and we have 27 mph winds with 32 mph gusts...damn, we were going to have nasty weather the next few days anyway, Ernie makes it all the worse.


i ma in fredericksburg. have fun down there lol. i am just hoping we donlt get no river flooding up this way. thats what they say isnpossible will really screw up the holiday weekend
Hello everyone, i have been an observer fo this blog for many months now! I finally joined!! Do you think Ernie will affect much here in Virginia Beach?? Thanks guys
Posted By: MiamiFisher at 8:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Posted By: nationalcatastrophe at 8:17 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
ernie is a common nickname for ernesto, no one shortens chris to Christobal

Can I call you NatCat?


Can I call you MiaFish?
vabeahc rainy and brezzy 20-40mph winds and 4-8 inches of rain
..with these first few cycles of eye-wall reformation(attempts at?)..its common to see the center reform in response to the collapsing downward of the previous cylce..but as a void is made..warm air will rush in to replace it..and the next cyle of this..process..Will begin..
HEY GUYS!

GULF!!! "then it will go west"!

LMAO!!!
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Three...Rest of The Tropics.........
Thursday, August 31, 2006.......


An Upper Level Ridge extends pass Cuba into NW Caribbean Sea.

An Upper level Low moving WSW, North of the Leeward Islands, will enhance showers over the Southern Bahamas, Greater Antilles (Hispaniola and Puerto Rico) and some of the smaller islands. The rest of Islands South of Anguilla is dominated by sinking dry, stable air in association with Saharan Dust, moving into the Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave moving west, with its axis located along 50W and a 1013mbar low located along its axis at 17N. The low/wave continues to be embedded in very very dry air ( I emphasized the word very).

Another wave is located along 35W, with a 1011mar low located ahead of the wave axis. This wave is embedded in an area of less dry air and numerous showers are seen in association with the ITCZ.

Both of theses wave waves have 0-10knots of shear to deal with, but massive amounts of dry air.

An Upper level trough is located over Eastern Canada, extending down into the NE USA.

Another trough is located in NE Atlantic Ocean, near 50N.

A powerful Extratropical Cyclone, will move into Europe (Great Brian Area), brining gusty winds and heavy rains, as usual with these mid-latitude cyclones.

A Cold front extends from 50N, 15W, to near 37N, 27W. The front will move into Portugal and Spain on Friday.

The North central Atlantic dominated by to surface Highs and an Upper Level High/Ridge is still situated West of Morocco.

By Weather456.....16:26UTC.....
sure, as long as I can call you MF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

OMG, that is the funniest thing.......and
what's even funnier is:

Posted By: MiamiFisher at 8:24 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
works for me

LMAO

max flight level winds of 67 mph east of center where the strongest winds have been.
Link
Posted By: VaBeachSurfer at 8:24 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Hello everyone, i have been an observer fo this blog for many months now! I finally joined!! Do you think Ernie will affect much here in Virginia Beach?? Thanks guys


Yeah you'll get rain and some gusty winds.
Posted By: FierceWinds at 8:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Posted By: MiamiFisher at 8:23 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
Posted By: nationalcatastrophe at 8:17 PM GMT on August 31, 2006.
ernie is a common nickname for ernesto, no one shortens chris to Christobal

Can I call you NatCat?

Can I call you MiaFish?


You can call me 1900!
Thanks 456, very well done.
698. HCW
Recon is done now and has gone home for now .


Conf call just went out from the NHC to the local NWS offices. Waiting on details from a friend that works in the NWS office.
HARDCOREWEATHER
Link
Hey VAbeachsurfer, I am in Chespeake. Depending on the exact location of landfall, the impact here could hange drastically. One thing is for sure- expect heavy rains (and when I say heavy, I mean heavy) and strong winds (most likely 35mph or greater). remember we have to add the foreward speed of the storm sine we will be to the East of its center (at least as of now lol). Looks like another band is headed here in the next 2 hrs. Stay safe!
Just don't call me collect
....2..two
benerica

see link for shear forecast map. values are low
I do not have a link for the SAL ( Sahara Air Layer )map now but from previous posts I have seen over the last few dyas the dry air is further N near 16 or so and that is why the low at 17N50W cannotdevelop or maintain any significant convection.


hope this helpsLink
Correction:

A powerful Extratropical Cyclone, will move into Europe (Great Britain Area), bringing gusty winds and heavy rains, as usual with these mid-latitude cyclones.
Visible loop of Ernie (or Ernesto, if that's what you want to call him)

Link
i am in chesapeake as well kabrax but most peol;e never heard of chesapeake so is ay virginia beach...haha i am in greenbrier...think we'll lose power??
thanks kmanislander, it worked
could someone please put a link for the local radar to view ernie? TIA
nolesjeff, thanks....
OK folks, per HCW, let's finish the sentence, "NWS Carolina?....This is Max...Yeah thanks, I'll invite you to the retirement party..Now, about this Earnie, this is what were thinking for the 5:00Pm advisory and I want to give you guys a heads up...."?............?".
Posted By: VaBeachSurfer at 4:33 PM EDT on August 31, 2006.
i am in chesapeake as well kabrax but most peol;e never heard of chesapeake so is ay virginia beach...haha i am in greenbrier...think we'll lose power??


Hopefully yall will be okay. My mom lives off of Indian River Rd. I am assuming you know where that is??
Haha...thats what I do, except I say Norfolk. I am Western Branch. A neighborhood next to me lost power already, but i doubt it was storm related. As for us losing power though, as bad as the power lines and VDOT are here, id give it a 50/50 shot. Again it depends on the landfall.
Ernie(or Ernesto)'s MIMIC

Link

Shows strenghining...
Let the Hurricane partys begin?
My sister has field hockey at Indian River High alot, and yes, i know where the road is.
NEW BLOG!!!
Isn't it about time for Jeff to give us an update?
Link



wilmington radar
I think That Bonnies landfall, not track after landfall, would be a good landfall prediction for Ernesto. LOOK
Wont jeff give it like at 5.30 so he can talk about the update? He prob thinks theres a chance it MIGHT be a hurricane...
000
WTNT25 KNHC 312034
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 50SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
I was thinking it might do what Ophelia did last year.

Ophelia 2005 Track
727. Xion
I wonder if the NHC will pull the hurricane update out in 15 minutes.
5pm update is still 991mb, 70mph and moving NNE @17
Anyone think it will take Bertha from 1996's track.

Bertha 1996 Track
LTX radar makes it look like it will go a little west of Southport...good news to me, I was looking at a rainy drive to channel marker 33
yes ... then it will go WEST

Where do you see it dying then Gulf? What state/providence?


Yank zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Screaming Drag LOL

Does Ernesto have ANY wind actually at The Surface?
Pshhhtt... guys... This is Deeeffinnnittlyy a FLPanhandle Hit... Geeeeezzz...
FYI - new blog up
Btw. on the cam page posted liek 2 h ago, u can now see 3 surfer....

Cheers
Just wanted to let everyone know that we at Alan Holden Vacations and RE/MAX at the Beach have a new live streaming WEBCAM up and running. There is a daily surf report with pictures too. So now you can see what the weather is doing and also the ocean waves when Hurricanes approach. Here is the link:

Link