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Ernesto spares Florida, heads for the Carolinas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on August 30, 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto waited until the final hours before landfall to finally put its act together, much to the benefit of South Florida. The pressure dropped from 1005 to 1001 mb as the storm came ashore about midnight, but the winds did not have time to adjust to the lower pressure, and Ernesto still had just 45 mph winds at landfall. A tropical storm in the developing phase is a fussy thing, and a number of ingredients have to come together just right for rapid intensification. I believe that the presence of Cuba to the south and the Florida Peninsula to the north, along with the particular pattern of upper air flow that existed, combined to create a turbulent air pattern with multiple vortices that made consolidation of the storm around just one central vortex difficult. One could see these multiple vortices in long radar loops last night, and it was not until just before landfall that Ernesto managed to consolidate around a single center and start to intensify. Had the storm had another 24 hours over the warm waters, it would have been a hurricane.


Figure 1.Total precipitation from the Miami radar.

So today, residents of Florida should be feeling good. There will be some heavy rains moving through periodically, but flooding should be minor. So far, Ernesto has dumped rain amounts less than four inches. Winds are too low to do any damage, but the windsurfers in South Florida get an unexpected boon. Virginia Key, one mile from downtown Miami, had sustained winds of 33 mph, gusting to 41 mph this morning at 8am. The Rickenbacker Causeway connecting Virginia Key to downtown Miami is a popular windsurfing spot I've spent many days windsurfing at, and I'm sure the windsurfers out out in force today to take advantage of Ernestos's unexpectedly modest winds. Sustained winds at other offshore buoys were generally in the 20-25 mph, with a peak wind gust at 50 mph seen at Vaca Key in the past hour.

Ernesto's forecast track
There is no change to the forecast. Ernesto is maintaining a well-organized appearance on radar animations, and should only slowly weaken during its 1-day long plus passage up the length of Florida. The storm will re-emerge into the Atlantic early Thursday morning and re-intensify over water. If the storm stays close to shore and makes landfall in South Carolina, it will probably come ashore Thursday night as a tropical storm. If the storm moves more offshore and makes landfall near the Outer Banks of North Carolina, it has extra time over warmer water, and will have a chance to be a Category 1 hurricane. The chances of Ernesto becoming a hurricane are a little less than it appeared yesterday, since it made landfall in Florida as a weaker than expected storm.

Hurricane John
The most serious situation in the tropics today is off the west coast of Mexico, where Category 3 Hurricane John is. John has just completed an eyewall replacement cycle, and is expected to intensify into a Category 4 hurricane today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, since it presents a serious threat to the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Manzanillo.

Super Typhoon Ioke
The incredible Category 5 Spertyphoon Ioke continues to trek over the Western Pacific, and is expected to submerge tiny Wake Island later today. The entire population of the island has been eveacuated to Hawaii.

African tropical waves
An tropical wave near 12N 34W, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has a pronounced surface circulation one can see in QuikSCAT satellite data from 3:52am EDT this morning. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased since yesterday, and any development should be slow to occur. The thunderstorm activity associated with this wave was being enhanced yesterday by a process known as upper-level divergence. When the the winds at high levels diverge (blow outward from a common center), then air from the surface must rise to fill the vacuum created. As this surface air rises, the moisture in it condenses, fueling thunderstorms. Thunderstorms created by this mechanism make a tropical disturbance look more impressive than it really is. The wave has moved away from this area of upper divergence, reducing the amount of thunderstorm activity.

The large spiral of low clouds near 18N 45W surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust continues to spin, but the thunderstorm activity near the center has dropped to nearly nil this morning. The wave is under a very favorable upper-level environment for development, with low shear and an upper-level anticyclone on top. However, water vapor satellite imagery shows that the air on all sides is very dry. The GFS model is showing that this wave will not be able to find a moister environment until Sunday at the earliest, when it may be near Puerto Rico or the Bahamas.

I'll be back late this afternoon with an update on Ernesto, John, Ioke, and the rest of the tropics.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow~
amazing radar runs with Ernie tightening it's COC over land probably due to day time heating.. I bet soon as the sun sets this will fade some.
Jen-x
Just wondering,
Could Ernesto take advantage of the Diurnal Maximums over land, then take advantage of it again over water this evening? How could this impact his strength and the centeral florida coast?
Does anyone think the wave in the Atlantic flaring up has potential to be a major hurricane? I have been told all the conditions are favorable for development. True or False?
..Ernie..while over Florida..its relativly flat..and its inflow from the sw & Ne is keeping it fed from 2 very warm stts of water..Not uncommon to see..just different..
Pressure is low rainbands are impressive. All it does not haveis impressive winds. Look for Ernesto to run the gulf stream north.
This thing looks more like a hurricane now then it did when it was a hurricane. No telling what's going to happen with this system!
PEOPLE, IF YOU THINK DAYTIME HEATING CAN DO THIS?????? PLLLEEEASSE!!!!
Excellent observation Mr. Patrap.
Explain please, Thel?
..Hurricanes ..or Typhoons..need an Eye Feature..er..and a 992mb Atlantic equivilent in pressure..Ernie no Hurricane..now..
Posted By: Patrap at 3:04 PM CDT on August 30, 2006.
..the Walrus is Paul..


LOL nice
..put hiz EGo aside in New Orleans..Aug 29th last year..nice iz nicer
Pressure held down ok over land, and it looks to be tightening already just coming near the shore,so my thinking is that it came off a little early and therfore ( same steering) will hit land a tad right making for nearly cat1 strength on impact a bit right of sc/nc border.
I think it is a combination of Ernie himself, Lake O, daytime heating over the land, and the fact that warm water is not real far from Ernie on either side.
Its unbelievable that ernesto's radar and satellite presentations has dramatically improved. The center has filled in as well...Getting very interesting.....
wave parade !

Link
" it came off a little early"

????????????????

it's still over land!
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 19.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft

Current Winds at C-Man Station Off Cape Canaveral
"daytime heating over the land, and the fact that warm water is not real far from Ernie on either side"

BINGO!!!!! you win a free trip to myrtle beach (beer awaits! ;) )
GS

Please discuss things verbally about your pics and ideas. I miss your humor. It's a major reason why I lurk here. Comment! - purty please.
995 mb? that can't be right

...can it?
and not to forget the everglades from the south.....you drive around here..and can almsot swear there's more water than land in south florida
Africa is getting a little busy I see
sorry, misread it

still, the centeral pressure seems a little low.
" it came off a little early"

????????????????

it's still over land!"\

the, I understand your concern. Let me try to explain.

Go to the graphics archive on the NOAA site.
Check out the history of ernesto's cone relative to projected departure from the east coast of FL. It's significantly shifted "early". Hope this helps
Posted By: thelmores at 3:17 PM CDT on August 30, 2006.
"daytime heating over the land, and the fact that warm water is not real far from Ernie on either side"

BINGO!!!!! you win a free trip to myrtle beach (beer awaits! ;) )


Better than a trip to Wake Island
where did some one say 995?
Wheres Taz? it has an eye. lolLink
at nightfall Ernesto will be over land still won't he? If yes then how about you all wait and see if he still looks impressive and have spiral bansa and all that. Nothing wrong with getting excited but ya'll jump to fast to conclusions.It could go back to being ragedy at night but if it doesn't I'll gladly eat my crow pie and make a public apology to you all in this blog. But lets wait and see frst before jumping the gun ok.
537. SEFL
I have been covered by Ernesto all day. The COC passed 45 miles west of me. About 1/2" of rain and a fresh breeze off and on. It may look pretty, but it certainly produced less rain and wind than the tropical waves that come thru here a few times each summer.
Posted By: Tannim at 3:19 PM CDT on August 30, 2006.
Posted By: thelmores at 3:17 PM CDT on August 30, 2006.
"daytime heating over the land, and the fact that warm water is not real far from Ernie on either side"

BINGO!!!!! you win a free trip to myrtle beach (beer awaits! ;) )

Better than a trip to Wake Island


Don't think anyone wants to go there now. Even I don't want to be in the way of that monster!

Link
where is the coc
amaz......please refrain from using the voice of reason on the blog :-)..but it does look pretty,,,and,,,it's going west
FYI...Some tornado warnings have gone up this afternoon between Melbourne and Orlando..Very impressive NE Quadrant action for mere tropical depression/wave....
Is there a phenomenon where a storm can take advantage of the diurnal maximum over land, and if its close enough to being back over the water by night, take advantage of it *again* as it moves offshore? Kind of a double-diurnalistic cha-cha, I guess?
Wait and see is fine,
Unless it's over your house before you see...
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:20 PM PDT on August 30, 2006.
where did some one say 995?


I did, but I misread the actual reading, which is 999.5. Sorry if I messed anyone up!
I think folks don't understand that weak storm are helped as much by shallow warm water as they are by deep warm water. They do not churn the water up as much as stronger storms, therefore the heat depth is not nearly as critical. I also think Lake O helped considerably. It did with Katrina.
LOL ok ricd from now on I"ll tell that tiny voice in my head to shut up or at least remember what and who's blog I'm on.(before ya'll jump on me it's not an attack against Dr. M I'm referring to "some" not all posters to his blog).
Anyone think this will make 2nd lanfall near the Outer Banks of NC?
COC WAS NEVER OVER FORT MYERS

IT NEVER MADE IT TO NAPLES...IT NEVER MADE IT EVERGLADES CITY!!!


Yup. First landfall was around midnight at Islamorada/Plantation Key. Second landfall was at 2 AM about 15 miles east of Flamingo. The center was never anywhere near the west coast.

Even now, if Ernie were to stay on a NNW heading and never exit the east coast of FL, coc would never get close to the west coast. That's just simple geography. And he is, in fact, turning. Looks like he'll be entering the Atlantic south of Cape Canaveral.
What's happening in the Atlantic>>???
Here are some loops for interested people

Atlantic

E. Pac

W. Pac
st....even when you churn the water up though...what do you still have?...warm water...lake o...is warm..just about top to bottom
the32nd are you trying to invent/add new meteorological words to Webster?
Exactly Guzzi, the problem in the Carolinas is folks will not have much time to prepare on the outside chance that they have a strengthening TS on there hands. The center is very broad right now and ill defined as well. I am very intersted in what the NHC has to say at 5:00.

See ya'll later
SJ
Also African Loop

Link
Posted By: StormJunkie at 4:26 PM EDT on August 30, 2006.
...See ya'll later
SJ


You mispelled "Y'all"
: )
thinking....and don't want to alarm anyone...but..a gulf landfall..just south of the panhandle..then...strenghtens real quick in the warm waters
Waiting for whatever in Savannah here - anyone think we got anything to worry about or is it going to blow right by us as a depression?
I think landfall will occur between the border of NC/SC and NC/VA. Why do the models have it so far south, and then turn it more NNW?
So to make sure I have it right..We have a Tropical Storm that is not a storm any more(As far the the NHC says) and hour by hour the pressure is dropping in this thing while it is still over Florida...Maybe the NHC was a little early in lowering the status of this system??...This has the best the storm has looked in days!!! Doesnt look to be moving to fast but once this gets over water there could be a blow up..When do you guys thing this will get back over water and how strong do you think Nesto can get????..My 2 cents is off the coast in 8 hours and we could get to a low cat 2..
nhc called at a td...check weather station windspeeds,,,then they're forecasting it to be a t-s once again.....looks like a nice call
I think that the NHC has to say that it will be a hurricane at landfall and then post Hurricane Watches then every one will prepare and then if it is a hurricane every one will be ready and if it is just a TS then everyone will still be ready I also think they should issue Volentary evacs for the immediate coast of NC/SC coast by the 5 AM advisory
Patrap,

"In this world, you must be oh so smart or oh so pleasant. Well, for years I was smart. I recommend pleasant. And you may quote me." From Elwood, in Harvey.

How close is Ioke from being the biggest or most powerful cane ever? Is it even in the top 10 yet?

After yesterday I will not even begin to suggest that Ernesto will go W at all or strengthen much, but he does look nice on IR today.
Zap
zaph...thus the westward quote..in honor of yesterday.....i'm wathcing the local weather guy..use his highlighter..and show the coc going north..just about landfall..and a blogger is getting upset that he is getting no respect for his westward prediction
Can some people please put up some footage pics of the flooding and other anomalys you witness, thx.

p.s.
If you got video post it on youtube.com or video.google.com


ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

...ERNESTO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...

AT 5PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT
25 MILES... 40 KM...WEST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA AND ABOUT 55 MILES...
90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
ON THURSDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TRACK OF
ERNESTO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 10
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.6 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN


amazin -

Always!
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N...80.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.


REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.6 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.


It really IS strengthining!!!
"I also think they should issue Volentary evacs for the immediate coast of NC/SC coast by the 5 AM advisory"

NHC does not order evacuations. It is local emergency managers who do that.

They have already issued them, this is from Charleston SC :

officials in Charleston and Colleton County have issued a voluntary
evacuation for all persons who live in vulnerable areas such as the
beaches... barrier islands... mobiles homes or in low lying areas
subject to flooding. You are encouraged to relocate to a safe
location. For additional information contact the Charleston County
citizen information hotline at 843-202-7100... and the Spanish
hotline is 843-202-7191. For information in Colleton County call
843-549-5632.
Don't y'all think its wierd that This thing is strengthening Over land? And when is it supposed to turn east?
which evaporates faster (ie as temp rises) fresh water or salt water? I would think salt water due to impurities and the increase in solutes

ok ill look it up
We are not getting too many advisories going on here in Savannah yet...maybe it will be blowing by us and hit up north.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 8:45 PM GMT on August 30, 2006.
Don't y'all think its wierd that This thing is strengthening Over land? And when is it supposed to turn east?


Yes, very wierd. And it was supposed to start turning E by now...
I dont see this a much for the outer banks but watchout below. Whether or not the right side fills in isnt that imporant because the track just aint going there imho. Its impressive though how it took a drink of lake O water and got all fired up. I guess that isnt too surprising really though.
This is a pretty cool loop. It is the Southeast sector loop.
Link
What the view on the Atlantic waves? The ones Dr M mentions seem pretty clear. He doesn't mention the one at 60W, 25N or thereabouts. Is this extra-tropical, or a ULL instead of a tropical wave?

The "dry" wave seems to have a track that could gain moisture in a few days, if it can hold the circulation that long without much convection.

Zap
"which evaporates faster (ie as temp rises) fresh water or salt water? I would think salt water due to impurities and the increase in solutes"

nope. salty water has a higher boiling point (and lower freezing point) than fresh water. when water evaporates, only the H2O leaves, so it concentrates the salts in the remaining water. based on LeChatlier's Principle, if the water is already salty, it is going to resist changes that make it saltier.

Freezing also concentrates water, because the ice that forms is pure water. so the same principle applies. The saltier the water, the harder to freeze or boil.
Nice radar loop!
I have no idea why its strenghen are there similar storms from the past?

Speculation:
And i just thought about this, maybe because it was so dry the ground can't soak up fast enough the rain and the storm repicking it up?
Also the everglades are wet and warm. Then the sea which it passed.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...26.0 N...81.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...27.6 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

Winds should increase by the 8:00 back to a TS
See Y'all later!
thats some lineup Kman
Afternoon Again....You can stop by my new blog entry to leave your predictions on how many storms we will likely see in September.

I will announce the winner of August Predictions on Friday 1 September.
LOL, 2 mb drop over land. I think we have Florida's moist surface to thank for that.
MAJOR ISSUES DOWNTOWN RICHMOND VA....

we had 3 inches of rain two weeks ago in a 2 hour period and our downtown flooded, similar to Gaston...but not quite as bad.

This will be repeat, hopefully not as bad as Gaston..
rwdobson thanks for the accurate response. i remember learning about LeChatlier's Principle in undergrad. now i learn about teeth :)
the center of circulation has continued to move northward along the
Florida Peninsula producing intermittent bursts of convection and a
few rainbands. Surface observations indicate that winds remain
about 30 knots with a few stronger gusts. The cloud pattern
is still organized and there is a well-defined circulation.
Therefore...Ernesto has the potential to re-intensify slightly once
it moves over the Atlantic waters tonight as suggested by guidance.
My garden in Melbourne, Fl
1.12" so far
Misting rain
10.7 mph SSE
1003.7mb↓
Observed at: Kissimmee, Florida
Elevation: 82 ft / 25 m
[Light Rain]
79 F / 26 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 F / 24 C
Wind: 10 mph / 17 km/h from the NE
Pressure: 9.75 in / 330 hPa

think ernesto killed Kissimmee's barometer! LOL

Observed at: Vero Beach, Florida
Elevation: 23 ft / 7 m
[Overcast]
79 F / 26 C
Overcast
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 F / 24 C
Wind: 26 mph / 43 km/h from the South
Wind Gust: 39 mph / 63 km/h
Pressure: 29.61 in / 1003 hPa
Ok, so is it possible that flat moist land could be good for an extremely disorganized system? Ernesto's COC was torn to shreds then it crossed the everglades... The everglades Provide a slow steady and stable environment for a COC to develop. While it would be bad for an already established storm because there is not enough moisture there, it could be just the right environment for a weak system... Kinda like a person whos not eaten in a while, You can't just throw a buffet at them or they'll get sick and take longer to recover.
that would make the everglades like a TD recovery zone... But it couldn't stay there long or it'll requite more energy than the moist land can provide.
Crossed cuba*
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 5:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2006.
Ok, so is it possible that flat moist land could be good for an extremely disorganized system?


that kinda what i was thinking. are the glades salt water and Lake O fresh?
Observed at: Kissimmee, Florida
Elevation: 82 ft / 25 m
[Light Rain]
79 F / 26 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 75 F / 24 C
Wind: 10 mph / 17 km/h from the NE
Pressure: 9.75 in / 330 hPa


ahahahahahaha you all see that
602. V26R
Everyone is forgetting that any type of Low Pressure System on Land can go through a strengthening cycle, Even ole Ernie, seeing his close proximity to two sources of fuel, the GOM and the Gulf Stream! Some of the Nor'easters we get up here get really low pressures over land too!
Heating or no heating..It still looks pretty on radar...................
the open HOT ocean with low shear is the recovery zone
call me crazy .... does it look, to anyone else but me, that TD Ernesto is shifting west again? I don't want this thing to get back in the Gulf. Input anyone?
salt water boils and heats up and holds onto that heat longer then fresh water. I did an experiment for school to show how hurricanes would form if the greenhouse effect really melted down the glaciers the waters wouldn't be so salty andhow this would effect hurricane developement. Anyway Salt water is better because the salt atoms/molecules help to hold the heat longer.
Please get off the west shift thing! only people seeing this "shift" are people who'd be effected by it if it did shift west! when someone who won't be effected see a west shift then I'll pay attention.
608. V26R
Stormlovr, Looks like still on a Northerly Trek
Sorry, You asked for it, Your Crazy! LOL
No, it isnt going west, the center just fot more disorganized.
Stormlvr...Look at the Water Vapor Loops..that trough coming down into the Gulf will not let it get into the Gulf..........
611. PBG00
evening all..oh no not the west shift thing again..LOL. So this storm is on its way..again..we were real lucky in Fla.This thing just won't die. Wind has been picking up here..and the storm has passed. Go figure
612. SEFL
Posted By: EricNielsen at 4:52 PM EDT on August 30, 2006.
I have no idea why its strenghen are there similar storms from the past?

Speculation:
And i just thought about this, maybe because it was so dry the ground can't soak up fast enough the rain and the storm repicking it up?
Also the everglades are wet and warm. Then the sea which it passed.


You know there are lots of swimming pools in Florida and that pool water is really warm this late in the summer, maybe..............
How far east do yall think it will go though? I mean how far up the E.C. before Landfall?
614. PBG00
amazin..my daughter has to do a projest for the science fair..that sounds interesting
lives on the east coast...sees a westward shift..but you should still pay no attention :-)
616. V26R
Kabraxis, With the stalled front across SNJ/EPA
Probably will skirt the outer banks, maybe the Va Beach area before getting scooped up bythe front and shoved out to the NE
hooked, are you in richmond?
619. SEFL
Posted By: drusierDMD at 5:03 PM EDT on August 30, 2006.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 5:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2006.
Ok, so is it possible that flat moist land could be good for an extremely disorganized system?


that kinda what i was thinking. are the glades salt water and Lake O fresh?

Water in the Glades comes from the lake. It might be brackish near Florida Bay, but it is fresh water....alligators don't like salt water
Great Link imho. It looks like a dur N mvmt, but to me it appears to have slowed down. Anyone agree?
(GUYS HERE IS ERNESTO/TD ON RADAR)




622. pt100
Hello People, Frank here (The Netherlands)

Ive been looking at the loop 1900hurricane provided us and if you slow it down you can see that the moist in the blob near the lake, does not come from the lake itsself. It sucks in the moist from the blob it created some time before that in the south of Florida.Here is theLink again so you can see for yourselves. Set animationspeed slower.
wow.....on my screen...on my tv...on the blog......anyone else want to pop it up?
624. V26R
OOOOO Pretty Colors!
Sorry, Nice Pix tho!
I made these images to go with my discussion this afternoon.....

Upper Air Chart....


Surface Chart
Nokomis - Sarasota - 1/2 mile to the Gulf. No wind, no rain. Not a drop.
weather...you going to explain..or am i going to half to walk all that way down the hall?
Posted By: ricderr at 9:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2006.
lives on the east coast...sees a westward shift..but you should still pay no attention :-)


Ric...The COC did reform a bit to the Northwest about 4:30. Now it looks like Ernie is tracking more East of North and should be pretty close to the official exit point tonight.
Earlier the exit point shifted South to Melbourne. Now it is raised back North to the Cape area.
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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

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AH AH AH

nothing you can do about it