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Ernesto nearing hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:02 PM GMT on August 06, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is undergoing significant strengthening, and is not far from hurricane strength, according to data from this morning's Hurricane Hunter mission. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to 997 mb at 8:13 am EDT, and had dropped another 3 mb to 994 mb at 9:17 am. Surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument had increased to 68 mph, and the plane found 89 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northwest side of the eye. A full eyewall surrounding a small 9-mile diameter eye had formed. Ernesto's forward speed has slowed down to 12 mph--just half of what it was 24 hours ago, and this has allowed the surface center to align itself with the circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere. Visible satellite loops show that Ernesto's heaviest thunderstorms are now located near the center of the storm, and these thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is still battling moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the west. Water vapor satellite loops show dry air to the west, but the environment around Ernesto is the moistest we've seen since it entered the Caribbean. On Sunday, Ernesto brought 1.73" of rain to Kingston, Jamaica, and top sustained winds of 37 mph.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Ernesto.

Forecast for Ernesto
Now that Ernesto has slowed down in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north, continued steady intensification appears likely. While wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range the next two days, Ernesto is over warm ocean waters of 28°C with very high heat content, and rapid intensification to a Category 2 hurricane is possible today. The 8 am EDT SHIPS model forecast predicts a 26% chance of rapid intensification--a 30 mph increase in winds over a 24-hour period. The main obstacle to intensification will probably be proximity to land, as the center of Ernesto is likely to pass very close to the coast of Honduras late Monday night. This will put a portion of the storm's circulation over land, limiting intensification potential.

The winds this Monday morning at Puerto Lempira on the northeast coast of Honduras have not yet begun to increase, but will begin to rise this afternoon and peak near midnight tonight. High winds and heavy rains will spread westwards along the coast of Honduras early Tuesday morning, and reach coastal Belize near 2 pm Tuesday. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast Thursday night south of Veracruz. However, most of the computer models predict that Ernesto will pop out so far south in the Bay of Campeche that the storm will have less than 24 hours over water. This makes significant re-intensification unlikely. I don't expect rain from Ernesto will get as far north as Brownsville, Texas.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Depression Florence is dissipating due to dry air and cool waters, and is not a threat to re-develop.

Historic heat wave ends in Oklahoma
The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Sunday reached 99°, snapping a string of 18 straight days the temperature had reached 100° or greater. The latest forecast calls for a few more days of temperatures in excess of 100° this week, but nothing like the heat wave last week that brought an unprecedented three straight days of 112° heat. The winds today in Oklahoma will be considerably lower than we saw over the weekend, which will aid firefighting efforts.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3501. LargoFl
Miami NWS Disco

MEANWHILE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A
DEEPER MOISTURE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND STRONG RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL DIP DOWN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FURTHER
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT THIS WETTER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
3503. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
................I was only kidding a few days ago..when i asked if ernesto could go into the pacific and hit california..................look at the model run


Don't know what the model runs are seeing that I'm not, but that's a long trip for a post-tropical low to survive and make it into the Pacific. They must be thinking he will be much stronger in the BOC than what makes sense to me.
3504. Stats56
The attack is a Fake AV redirect.

And the source:

Network traffic from www1.remedykeeperdebug.pl/txddk/al/78dee9e271084c b2/267/ matches the signature of a known attack.

The attack was resulted from \DEVICE\HARDDISKVOLUME1\PROGRAM FILES\INTERNET EXPLORER\IEXPLORE.EXE. You chose to stop notifications for this type of traffic. To start notifications again, in the Actions panel, click Notify Me.

Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Seven days is a really long time to determine motion. I am pretty sure headings can change in that time frame.
thatsthejoke.jpeg (It was sarcasm)
Quoting jeffs713:

Yet another reason to spend the $10 annually for membership.

WU can't control the ads placed here. They can work with the ad provider to block certain ones, but new ones will always come up. This is one of the reasons why I pay $10 annually here, and also why I keep my computer updated with both anti-virus and anti-malware scanners.


Having the membership doesnt help... I have it and I am getting the messages every day here. Need malware.
Quoting cheaterwon:


No this is just a 36 hr wobble. Its still heading west with a hint of north if you look at its movement over the past 7 days.
LMAO. A 36 hour wobble. That is funny.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Sprinfield IL will appreciate this trough:
HI/LO
TODAY-----------97/64
WEDNESDAY- 93/66
THURSDAY---- 86/64
FRIDAY--------- 78/57
SATURDAY---- 80/60
SUNDAY------- 83/62


Talk about cooldown


Oh man it has actually been great the last two days up here. Highs in the upper 80's and lows in the low 60's even had some areas flirt with sub 60 temps. Lower humidity too. Can't wait till Friday 76, Saturday 79 for highs will be much welcomed relief. I'm pretty sure we have even given the term "Texas Hot" a run for its money this year.

Just a sum up of the 31 days of July here. Only 4 days saw the thermometer drop below 90. 7 days over 100 and an average high of 94.4 degrees for the month. What may be even more impressive is our recorded overnight lows above 70 degrees occurred a staggering 21 times just for July.

It's been hot and I loath Summer, especially a Summer with no rain or storms.



Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Seven days is a really long time to determine motion. I am pretty sure headings can change in that time frame.


It was sarcasm.
3510. LargoFl
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

MEANWHILE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA, BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A
DEEPER MOISTURE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH BACK INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROTATE AROUND STRONG RIDGING ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL DIP DOWN INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FURTHER
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE
ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT THIS WETTER PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
..skeeters are loving this pattern..THIS rainy season is something else alright
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Having the membership doesnt help... I have it and I am getting the messages every day here. Need malware.

It sounds like you already have the malware.

Try running Trend Micro's Malware Bytes in safe mode, from a USB stick.
Quoting sar2401:


Indeed. Given the purchase of WU by You-Know-Who, I'd cough up the ten bucks now. For some reason, I have the feeling that will look cheap a couple months from now. :)


I wasn't aware that Voldemort has taken over WU.

Puerto Rico Disco

REMNANTS OF TS FLORENCE WILL PASS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THU AND
WILL BE OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE OTHER THAN LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.

VERY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE FRI FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING UPPER CONVERGENT
FLOW/SUBSIDENT PATTERN BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TUTT TO THE
EAST WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO TUE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE TUTT. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE
VERY SPOTTY AND SHALLOW.

CURRENT INVEST 92L IN THE ERN ATLC DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH ROOM
FOR SURVIVAL AS MOST OF THE GFES MEMBERS SHOW THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATING AROUND 24 HRS.
3514. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:


It would sure be nice if that blob over SE Alabama would nudge itself a little further west. We had the driest July on record, while SE AL has been getting flooded.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I wasn't aware that Voldemort has taken over WU.


LOL. I didn't think of that. Good catch! +1
3516. jpsb
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Plus does the money still go to WU Jeff Masters site or does TWC get it know?

Sheri
The Weather Channel bought WU? Damn.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


Having the membership doesnt help... I have it and I am getting the messages every day here. Need malware.
i got the ad blocker yesyerday and it all stopped
Quoting cheaterwon:


It was sarcasm.


Sorry, still asleep from late night of tracking. Posted too fast.
3519. LargoFl
Quoting sar2401:


Don't know what the model runs are seeing that I'm not, but that's a long trip for a post-tropical low to survive and make it into the Pacific. They must be thinking he will be much stronger in the BOC than what makes sense to me.
..if he makes it into the pacific, he will probably be just a low..but could..rebuild out there?
Quoting jeffs713:

They splash in water, then sink.

-or-

The grow little fins and begin evolving into a new breed of fish that will end up gaining sentience and taking over the world, eventually colonizing dozens of planets. All because of dropsondes.


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.
Quoting LargoFl:
..skeeters are loving this pattern..THIS rainy season is something else alright

We've had hordes mosquitoes that could pick up small animals (it seems) around here since our flooding event last month. They are starting to fade a bit, but I know they are just waiting for the next heavy rain to abduct small children and anything under about 50 lbs.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS ENSEMBLE FL then TX or LA
983MB

986MB

977MB
Remind me again, which wave or aoi is depicted in your the 3 gfs model runs you posted? Thanks It that 92L of the next on off the coast of Africa?
by the looks of the model plots for 92L says 92L will be a caribbean storm hmm

Quoting jeffs713:

It sounds like you already have the malware.

Try running Trend Micro's Malware Bytes in safe mode, from a USB stick.

they need to download this... Malwarebytes Anti-Malware I have it and most people here have it after the problems we all had a few years ago.
Quoting sar2401:


You should forward the information to the site admins and TrendMicro. It may simply be some malformed Java or HTML that's giving false positives. I've seen no problems here at all, and never have. As you can see from my join date, I've been around for a bit. :)
I've never posted either on this site but I have to say,my Norton has been blocking stuff from this site also.It's only been doing that recently and only on this site.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
can Ernesto get in the GOM??



I doubt it!
3527. sar2401
Quoting jeffs713:

It sounds like you already have the malware.

Try running Trend Micro's Malware Bytes in safe mode, from a USB stick.


Yep, it's just using various sites as a cover. Also try Spybot Search and Destroy. The free version does a good job getting spyware and malware off your computer.
Alright what will pressure be next pass? I am going to guess 987MB.
Quoting jeffs713:

We've had hordes mosquitoes that could pick up small animals (it seems) around here since our flooding event last month. They are starting to fade a bit, but I know they are just waiting for the next heavy rain to abduct small children and anything under about 50 lbs.



I just got back fro mthe Keys and I thought it was raining , but then realized I was driving through them ...
3531. LargoFl

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072012
0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 111.7W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 111.7W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 14.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.5N 116.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 111.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG
3532. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
by the looks of the model plots for 92L says 92L will be a caribbean storm hmm



I don't think 92l is going to turn into any kind of storm. It will be gone within 36 hours.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Oh man it has actually been great the last two days up here. Highs in the upper 80's and lows in the low 60's even had some areas flirt with sub 60 temps. Lower humidity too. Can't wait till Friday 76, Saturday 79 for highs will be much welcomed relief. I'm pretty sure we have even given the term "Texas Hot" a run for its money this year.

Just a sum up of the 31 days of July here. Only 4 days saw the thermometer drop below 90. 7 days over 100 and an average high of 94.4 degrees for the month. What may be even more impressive is our recorded overnight lows above 70 degrees occurred a staggering 21 times just for July.

It's been hot and I loath Summer, especially a Summer with no rain or storms.





the 20 days of lows above 70 doesnt seem too bad, weve had at my house least 25 and we have cooler summers than you

3 more in the forecast this week too.

If I remember right a few years back we had storms going into the Caribbean and by all means they should've became big storms but they just couldn't get there act right and just about everything went into Mexico. Does anyone remember this? At the time a lot of folks where scratching there heads cause they really couldn't figure out what was going on. Thank God they didn't get the act together cause Mexico and up would've got way worse than what they did get.

sheri
3535. lhwhelk
Quoting jeffs713:

It sounds like you already have the malware.

Try running Trend Micro's Malware Bytes in safe mode, from a USB stick.

Better yet, get Firefox. I've not seen a thing, and I'm not even a paid member.
Quoting MRCYCLOGENESIS:



I doubt it!
If Ernesto keeps his current heading he will.



Yellow line show landfall & track with current heading of 311.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.

I don't think I would ever want to be near the fish that ate a sinking dropsonde, since they are about 4" in diameter and 2-3 feet long... And made partially of metal.
Quoting AussieStorm:

they need to download this... Malwarebytes Anti-Malware I have it and most people here have it after the problems we all had a few years ago.

Thats what I have and it works great.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What happens to the dropsondes after they fall to the surface?

Dropsondes do not float, as their parachute has been modified to induce quickly sinking.
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
If I remember right a few years back we had storms going into the Caribbean and by all means they should've became big storms but they just couldn't get there act right and just about everything went into Mexico. Does anyone remember this? At the time a lot of folks where scratching there heads cause they really couldn't figure out what was going on. Thank God they didn't get the act together cause Mexico and up would've got way worse than what they did get.

sheri

Yep, I remember that. 2010 if I recall correctly. It was largely due to mid-level dry air and mid-level shear that didn't show up on a lot of maps. It was figured out in the post-season, when things get pored over more closely.
am not giveing up 92L it has a ch
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If Ernesto keeps his current heading he will.



Yellow line show landfall & track with current heading of 311.


in other words, xtrp model
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Sorry, still asleep from late night of tracking. Posted too fast.

No problem, I hope you have a wonderful day.
3544. LargoFl
..IF..it gets to hit cancun head on..all bets are off on models
Quoting wxchaser97:

Thats what I have and it works great.

Now that this site is in the hands of TWC, I have adblock ad on so I have no ads.
3546. sar2401
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.


I found one while diving a wreck at 100 feet off Grenada. I think it was a leftover from Ivan. I've still got it around here somewhere.
Quoting weatherh98:


in other words, xtrp model
Well there is no reason why he would change to a more west track right now. He is currently heading NW and deepening so might as well assume he will keep the current heading.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Well there is no reason why he would change to a more west track right now. He is currently heading NW and deepening.


yes this has defiedforecasts so far
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so there are tons of dropsondes sitting at the bottom of the ocean unless a fish decided to eat it on the way down?

It would be cool to find one on a ocean bottom dive in a sub.
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Now that this site is in the hands of TWC, I have adblock ad on so I have no ads.

I was told about Adblocker alittle bit ago and got that so I'm good.
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't think I would ever want to be near the fish that ate a sinking dropsonde, since they are about 4" in diameter and 2-3 feet long... And made partially of metal.


fish eat anything...that nice metal glint looks like scales...of course its a big fish
Quoting stillwaiting:
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.

They are specifically designed to sink, and they are also made of metal.
3554. jpsb
Quoting weatherh98:


yes this has defiedforecasts so far
Is Ernesto really heading 311?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker


I'm shocked! :)
Quoting stillwaiting:
,i believe they actually float as they would be sealed from the elements their dropping them into tropical cyclones,,ibelieve a wu blogger found one a couple yrs ago.


I thought they were retrieved and reused is that not correct?
Atlanta has had 40-50 days of 70 lows as best i can tell...so that doesnt seem too major
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think 92L will develop into a storm and I think it will be a caribbean tracker

What makes you so sure about that?
Quoting jpsb:
Is Ernesto really heading 311?


yup
Quoting jpsb:
Is Ernesto really heading 311?
If you measure it from from each drop in the last 2 passes he is. The exact measurement is 311.24 to be exact. Reference post 3471.
Quoting jeffs713:

We've had hordes mosquitoes that could pick up small animals (it seems) around here since our flooding event last month. They are starting to fade a bit, but I know they are just waiting for the next heavy rain to abduct small children and anything under about 50 lbs.




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.
Quoting LargoFl:


I was just wondering is that the left overs from 91l from I think last week coming back to florida?

sheri
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.

Was this taken in my back yard?

(also, we aren't talking about Crane Flies.. those have already died off. I'm talking about mosquitoes that are literally an inch long)
Quoting Tazmanian:
am not giveing up 92L it has a ch
What's a ch
3566. jpsb
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If you measure it from from each drop in the last 2 passes he is. The exact measurement is 311.24 to be exact.
Hmmm, probably a temporary deviation from his western track, but if the NW persists this is a brand new ball game.
3567. sar2401
Quoting cheaterwon:


I thought they were retrieved and reused is that not correct?


No, they're not. They float for a bit, then sink. I think they can stay on the surface for maybe an hour. They are made as cheaply as possible, considering what they do, so being watertight for very long is not part of the specs. As I said, I found one while diving. You're probably thinking of weather packages from ballons. They are reused if found, and even carry intructions on how to get it back to the NWS station that launched the balloon.
Quoting jeffs713:

I don't think I would ever want to be near the fish that ate a sinking dropsonde, since they are about 4" in diameter and 2-3 feet long... And made partially of metal.
Does PETA know about this?
Ernesto seems to have moved a bit more west. Recon is heading in the direction that would indicate this. That being said they may do a quick turn like they do sometimes.
Quoting jeffs713:

Was this taken in my back yard?

(also, we aren't talking about Crane Flies.. those have already died off. I'm talking about mosquitoes that are literally an inch long)


exaggeration....:)
you guys have the west nile virus going around over there?
3572. LargoFl
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I was just wondering is that the left overs from 91l from I think last week coming back to florida?

sheri
..it sure looks like extreme northern florida and georgia will be getting its rains again..going up the east coast someone said when it gets back here,like it made a Uturn
What's up with the goofy storm icons on the intro map? TWC flexing its muscles?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


exaggeration....:)
you guys have the west nile virus going around over there?

Yep, just had another case reported this week.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 7th, with Video
thanks
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.


You should see the size of them in Alaska.
Quoting Clearwater1:
Does PETA know about this?


peta doesnt know that i kill snakes in my yard....i'd hope we never tell them
*SWAT**
*kills mosquito*
Quoting sar2401:


I don't think 92l is going to turn into any kind of storm. It will be gone within 36 hours.
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!
3579. LargoFl
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.
LOL on that pic
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Atlanta has had 40-50 days of 70 lows as best i can tell...so that doesnt seem too major


Yeah, 70 or above lows seem pretty normal for summer. Maybe it's just in Georgia lol.

Looking through the monthly observation archives that accuweather provides, there wasn't a single day the thermometer went below 70 in my location (Macon) for the month of July. Today's the 40th day in a row the low isn't going below 70. But that probably happens most summers
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah, 70 or above lows seem pretty normal for summer. Maybe it's just in Georgia lol.

Looking through the monthly observation archives that accuweather provides, there wasn't a single day the thermometer went below 70 in my location (Macon) for the month of July. Today's the 40th day in a row the low isn't going below 70. But that probably happens most summers

Here in Houston, it is an event when the thermometer goes below 70 between June and August.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm shocked! :)

its moving like Ernesto when ernesto was 99L invest and I noticed models have shifted Swards and Wwards

00Z


06Z


12Z


also the funny thing is that Ernesto-EX-99L origanaly had it going N or the NE Carib islands

well 92L could be ernesto part 2 in the next week or two
3584. LargoFl
....look out south eastern states, might be some flood warnings coming out later
new blog
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!
3587. sar2401
Quoting Waltanater:
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!


Ummmm....no. It's not going to make it anywhere near Miami. It's going to be yet another invest that's born and then dies. Too much dry air and shear to overcome.
3588. sar2401
Quoting LargoFl:
....look out south eastern states, might be some flood warnings coming out later


There are alread flood warnings in SE AL and the Florida Panhandle. Still clear, hot, and humid 75 miles west, dang it.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
If Ernesto keeps his current heading he will.



Yellow line show landfall & track with current heading of 311.


from the looks of this, Ernie want be over land very long it he just hits the tip of the Yucatan. But isn't there something in the GOM Blocking anything from making it through there?

Sheri
Quoting Waltanater:
Do you think it will hit SFLA in time for the 20th Anniversary of Hurricane Andrew? It is "92L" after all!

Unless it takes it's time and stays out there for 17 more days then I highly doubt that. It should take a storm roughly 7-10 days to reach s fla at normal speed.
3591. sar2401
Quoting missionRN14:
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!


It's going to redevelop as some kind of post-tropical/extra tropical low in the central Atlantic and get caught up in the normal north Atlantic winds and upset some fish...and maybe make a few sailors a little more seasick. :)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

its moving like Ernesto when ernesto was 99L invest and I noticed models have shifted Swards and Wwards

00Z


06Z


12Z


also the funny thing is that Ernesto-EX-99L origanaly had it going N or the NE Carib islands

well 92L could be Renesto part 2 in the next week or two


I think 92L definitely bears watching! - Dangerous trajectory so far.

On Ernesto, I'm sticking with my previous thoughts, and believe it's headed for Texas. Here's why. First, there's a pile-up of moisture near Cuba & the Yucatan channel & the latter has the hottest waters of the Caribbean -- bad mixture. I think it'll draw Ernesto a bit more to the north as storms build on that side...& Ernesto swells in size. As size increases, > chance of staying more to the north, IMO.

Also, the LBAR model continues to show this storm heading NW toward Brownsville & hooking upward. That's the same basic direction Ernesto has kept since it dramatically shifted north off the coast of Honduras. NOAA says of the (LBAR) model that "...LBAR performs best early in the hurricane season (before fronts penetrate into the subtropics) and on storms that move primarily westward and only move slowly northward. LBAR outperforms all the statistical track guidance models, and its skill in the 12-36 hr time frame is comparable to that of the more complex baroclinic models."
I think this storm absolutely fits that description.

Third, the UL in the western GOM is leaving (west) & slightly deformed now (it seems). It is pulling UL-winds toward the NE across the GOM, w/moisture.

I think Ernesto will leave the Yucatan much further north than most models predict, giving much more room to build again & less loss during crossing. That would place it on a path quite near the hottest gulf waters -- a veritable heat-bomb of hot water & hot air. That's sort of a continuance of what's in the Yucatan channel now, only more so, and hurricanes love to "migrate" toward such zones. It often happens with storms that appear in the Gulf of Campeche in fact, causing them to migrate northward after they start.
3593. cg2916
New blog!
Quoting MiamiSurvivor:




Just wanted you all to have the visual, dont beat me for it, they really are huge.




I thought the stork brought those things!
Quoting missionRN14:
HEy what happened to... "theres no chance of Flo redeveloping"? I see orange!!


Lol - that always gets my attention when someone says something like "never" in regards to a tropical system....
BTW -- Look at the visible sat loop up close now.
That bad boy, Ernesto, still likes to color outside the lines! His center is puckered up just outside the northern edge of the cone path-projection. Naughty boy.