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Ernesto near hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:28 PM GMT on August 31, 2006

Tropical Storm Ernesto is near hurricane strength, headed for a landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border this evening. The latest center report from the Hurricane Hunters at 3:37pm EDT found a central pressure of 991 mb, just 1 mb higher than Ernesto's pressure when he was a hurricane south of Haiti. Radar animations from the Wilmington radar don't show an eyewall forming yet, put the intensity and number of spiral rain bands is increasing. Again, it is a good thing Ernesto has only a few hours over water to intensify, or this would have been a Category 2 hurricane in another day. The latest surface wind measurements from the SFMR instrument carried on NOAA's P-3 aircraft found highest winds of 67 mph, on the southeast side of the storm (Figure 1). Wind observations from offshore buoys have been as high as 42 mph sustained with gusts to 50 mph this afternoon. Rainfall amounts up to 8 inches have been estimated from Wilmington radar in some small pockets, and amounts of 4 inches are common across North and South Carolina. An additional 4-8 inches will fall over much of North Carolina, making fresh water flooding the main hazard of the storm. A storm surge of up to 5 feet near the coast will also cause some problems.


Figure 1. Wind analysis of the NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter data from 3:30pm EDT 8/31/06.

Ernesto is under wind shear of 10-20 knots, thanks to southwesterly upper-level winds from the trough of low pressure pulling the storm to the north. This shear is keeping the storm from organizing as quickly as it would otherwise. Water temperatures under the storm are about 30 C, which is very favorable for intensification. The eastern portion of the storm is over the axis of the very warm Gulf Stream Current.

Hurricane John
The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reached Hurricane John this afternoon, and ofund that it had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane. This probably occurred because of interaction with the mountainous terrain of Mexico. However, John is now pulling away from the coast of Mexico, and may be able to re-intensify. The forecast track of the storm takes it very near to the tip of the Baja Peninsula, and John could be the strongest hurricane to affect Baja since Hurricane Liza of 1976 brushed the peninsula as a Category 4 storm. Wind shear is light and forecast to remain low, and sea surface temperatures (Figure 2) are a very warm 30 C under the hurricane--about 1-2 degrees C above normal for this time of year. John's strength is likely to be controlled by difficult to predict eyewall replacement cycles over the next two days.


Figure 2. Current sea surface temperatures along the Pacific coast. Temperatures in the Gulf of California may not be accurate, due to difficulties retrieving the temperature via satellite measurements in such a narrow body of water. The red line separating blue colors from yellow marks the 26 C isotherm--the critical temperature needed to sustain a tropical cyclone. Note the very cool waters extending from the California border southwards along the coast. This long stretch of cool water will make it difficult for John to hold together if it tries to approach California. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Is John a threat to the U.S.?
In yesterday's blog, I discussed in detail the historical record of the five Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that have affected the U.S. with tropical storm force winds. The latest model guidance and official forecast now suggest that the U.S. is not at risk from John.

Super Typhoon Ioke
Super Typhoon Ioke hit tiny Wake Island with the left side of its eyewall this morning. A storm surge of 8 feet with 50 foot waves probably battered the island. Observations from Wake showed winds of 78 mph gusting to 100 mph and a pressure of 934 mb before the instrument failed at 2:18am EDT this morning. A drifting buoy (52609) about 100 miles east of Wake apparently took a direct hit, and measured a pressure of 921.5 mb in the eye:

Measurements from drifting buoy 52609:

Date/Time Pressure
-------------------
8/30/06 16 995.9
8/31/06 00 970.5
8/31/06 02 939.6
8/31/06 03 921.5
8/31/06 05 936.7
8/31/06 06 951.7

Unfortunately, the buoy has no wind measurement equipment. Ioke continues to be a borderline Category 4/5 super typhoon, and is not expected to decline to category 3 strength for several more days. This would probably make it the longest-lived Category 4 or higher storm on record anywhere.

African tropical waves
The tropical wave near 18N 50W is surrounded by a large cloud of dry air and African dust and has lost almost all of its thunderstorm activity near the center. Development is not likely until Sunday at the earliest, when it may find a moister environment near the Lesser Antilles Islands.

A tropical wave near 12N 36W, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has shown a small increase in thunderstorm activity today. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next few days.

A spinning area of clouds few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is associated with an upper level low pressure system. Development is not expected of this system.

All of the global models are calling for development of a tropical wave that wil come off the coast of Africa this weekend. The models are not very good at forecasting development of tropical systems coming off the coast of Africa; it will be interesting to see if this consensus forecast is correct.

Next update
Tonight, I'll be talking live at 8:45pm EDT on the Barometer Bob show:

http://www.barometerbobshow.com/

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ok Ray
Watchnva take a look at my name and take guess. : )
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 8:28 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
I think Ioke will recurve b4 hitting Japan


The CMC thinks so too, but none of the other models do.

FSU models
That low in the Atlantic in the dust is starting to get some thunderstorms near the center.... Not much but the dry air is slowly becoming less severe around the center and each day a little more convection begins to fire up.

Tonight looks the best.
Hmmmmm...I think Ray is from Austin, TX

: )
Posted By: truecajun at 1:28 AM GMT on September 01, 2006.
Hello all...Sooo, is anyone making predictions on the "supposed Sunday storm/s"?? Not to be disrespectful towards Ernesto. Just curious.
Bri


The models seem to like the wave at 35w. I just wait and see on those as there is no reliable way to really predict development.
dont ask...i think that just marked the end of my posting tonight......lmao!....wow
How large is Ioke? It looks really big
1900hurricane, LOL! Wathcnva, thats prolly one of those questions u could have answered urself eh? Seriously though, Wilmington, MA, about 20 mi NW of Boston. In Boston's snowbelt! : )
Ioke WV

Link
NASH, You have a good head on your shoulders! I agree with most of what you say!! And, it is true that Ernesto COULD have made it into the gulf. I have seen more hurricanes, and storms, than most of you here!!! I can tell you, that these darn things , can do what ever they want! I hope everyone stays prepared!
I also hope that everyone remembers to try to help others in need, when a storm is coming.
hurricane23: our weather guy seems to think nothing of this wave. Your pic looks pretty interesting. They did mention the one off of africa though.
Posted By: nationalcatastrophe at 8:37 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
have we made landfall yet I have been gone about 6 hours


Not yet...
yea, tell me about it...lol...ehh...man o man...i need a beer...lol
I think the wave around 40 longitude will eventualy develop.
23 I think that has had the llc for some time but the dust has been killing it. That is a nice burst but the dust out there is still significant.
I wish I would have gone into Meteorology. Is that even what they call it?? Anyhow, they don
't offer that curriculum at LSU. They should. I love the weather. We got a little cool front here and it's sooo wonderful to feel dry air and wind. I just had too much chocolate ice cream. Talk to y'all later.
Bri
So the NHC still thinks there is a Chance of a Hurricane ha
Wachngnva, no worries man, were all tired from watchn E the past few days. Sit back, relax...and enjoy a cold one pal.
Another of Ioke

Link
Good Evening Nash28 and StormW
Boy Ioke went through a ..."Hey my eye is too small wait a minute.....(rustleing and tusling sounds) AHHH Now I can See!"
Buoy Data


We are headed out to see how things are out there in Long Beach.
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 1:42 AM GMT on September 01, 2006.
Wachngnva, no worries man, were all tired from watchn E the past few days. Sit back, relax...and enjoy a cold one pal.


Yeah, I know the feeling; I've been watching E for about a week now, and last night I got so frazzled my girfriend had to straighten me out. Go have one for me, Wachngnva.
Ernesto is now developing an eye. I say cat 1, 85-90 mph at landfall
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 1:36 AM GMT on September 01, 2006.
Ioke WV

Link


Great loop of an Eyewall Replacement 1900! Keeps going and going and going.
Really, how many Eyewall Replacement Cycles has Ioke gone through? Four? Or more?
Good night STORMW! you are a great guy!
hey where the Tropical Weather Outlook for 10:30pm?
Stay safe SJ.
DAMN IT!! Time is running low for me as my gf will be over soon and "off of the computer" she will implore! : (
Too many 1900 lol.
weather report from sw florida:

the rain has FINALLY stopped!! we got 5-6 inches yesterday and another 4 inches today. im just glad ernesto wasnt stronger/moving slower otherwise it couldve been real bad! we had alot of localized flooding as it was. everyone in the carolinas and in the path of ernesto just becareful. it might not be a monster like katrina or wilma but it can still do alot of damage, esp with flooding rains
It looks like this storm may provide higher than average tornadic activity.
Early morning loop

Link
Yea, Ioke must be runnibg outta eyewalls to replace! lol!
ill have a couple for all of ya...lol...looks like we are getting reading to have landfall...yippie...lol...the western side "eyewall....looks pretty rough...anyone have any measurments coming from under it?
hurricane23, we have to watch it. it needs to maintain some convection. its already has a low level circulation so it could be the next system. be interesting to see what happens
Posted By: PensacolaBuoy at 8:51 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
It looks like this storm may provide higher than average tornadic activity.


I'm curious. Why do you think that. I don't know much about how tornados in tropical cyclones form.
Well on radar it looks as if Ernesto closed the coc again and is making landfall.
ready*...lol..man...i think ima take a short break...be back in a few:P
Ioke dosn't have any more "masks" to put on at his party....he's out of Tricks!! lol What a Major Hurricane / Super Typhoon
Looks like both of our waves out there are flaring up again. Also Wake island is no more....
is it poss. that the NHC could say....ALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS NOT A HURRICNAE NOW, CERTAIN OBSERVATIONS CONCLUDED THAT IT WAS A HURRICNAE AT ONE POINT....
Posted By: Accordionboy at 8:55 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
Ioke dosn't have any more "masks" to put on at his party....he's out of Tricks!! lol What a Major Hurricane / Super Typhoon


Ummm...Ioke is the Hawaiian name for Joyce. I don't think it is a "he".
: )
I dont think we need anymore hurricanes cause Ioke alone has pretty much taken care of balancing the heat from the tropics with the poles!
Here is a loop of Ern.

Link
well I didn't want to check under it's clouds to check it's sex....I might get killed in the process with 155mph winds lol
Posted By: Accordionboy at 9:00 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
well I didn't want to check under it's clouds to check it's sex....I might get killed in the process with 155mph winds lol


Ya, that would be bad if you got killed while trying to find out.

: )
RE: Ernesto

Morehead City Base Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Radar picked up velocities of over 120kts both in the positive and negative.

On the surface, my guess would be that we have a CAT 1. Or a nice tornado somewhere throwing off the reading.
At 0z the vortex message indicated Ernesto had a 20nm eye partially open N to NNE. Since that time, radar shows this closing off nicely. Ernie always wanted to be something and I think it s making one last effort. Hurricane at 11pm?
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Two...Continue Tropics and Hurricane John.........
Thursday, August 31, 2006.......


An Upper Level Ridge is station over the Hudson Bay into Central Canada, while an Upper level trough, accompanied by an Upper Level Mid-Latitude Cyclone is moving out to sea over Nova Scotia.

The Upper Level High/Ridge that was centered over the Continental United States for some time now, no longer sits inland and is now centered east of Georgia in Atlantic Ocean. A broad Upper Level ridge extends into the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Bermuda.
Replacing the High is an Upper level polar trough, extending down from the Jet Stream over Canada, into the Midwest and down to the South-East United States. This trough will be responsible for steering Ernesto east and north (See Part One). At the heart of the trough is an Upper Level Low spinning over Wisconsin. The trough has stretch further south into the Gulf of Mexico, brining some extremely dry air with it to the Louisiana/Texas Gulf Coast area.

This trough is also associated with a stationary front that extends from the Texan/Mexican Border into the Gulf of Mexico, north across the Florida Panhandle, up into the SE United States, exiting near Virginia into the Atlantic Ocean, where the front is still cold in nature. Along with the cold front in this location, a warm front is moving north towards Canada; this helped to produce an Extratropical/Mid-Latitude Cyclone moving NE into the Extreme North Atlantic. Gusty wind will be expected over Nova Scotia, Canada.

The Upper Level Low that was moving towards Texas appears to have merge with the trough coming down from Continental United States.

Numerous scattered showers are found along Central America, southward to NE Colombia, excluding Nicaragua.

Hurricane John brought Tropical Storm-Hurricane conditions to Western Mexico, John will continue to move NNW toward the Baja Peninsula before moving out to sea.

I found a Ship close to John. It measure a pressure of 1005mbars, with cloudy conditions. Winds were out of the North at 10knots. The ship is to the NW of John moving SW.

Wave heights along the coast will be as high as 10m (25ft) and flooding rains of up to 20in or more.

By Weather456.....16:01UTC......
Updated...21:59UTC

Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Three...Rest of The Tropics.........
Thursday, August 31, 2006.......


An Upper Level Ridge extends pass Cuba into NW Caribbean Sea.

An Upper level Low moving WSW, North of the Leeward Islands, will enhance showers over the Southern Bahamas, Greater Antilles (Hispaniola and Puerto Rico) and some of the smaller islands. The rest of Islands South of Anguilla is dominated by sinking dry, stable air in association with Saharan Dust, moving into the Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave moving west, with its axis located along 50W and a 1013mbar low located along its axis at 17N. The low/wave continues to be embedded in very, very dry air ( I emphasized the word very).

Another wave is located along 35W, with a 1011mbar low located ahead of the wave axis. This wave is embedded in an area of less dry air and numerous showers are seen in association with the ITCZ.

Both of theses waves have 0-10knots of shear to deal with, but massive amounts of dry air.

An Upper level trough that was located over Eastern Canada, extending down into the NE USA, has moved out to see south of Nova Scotia.

Another trough is located in NE Atlantic Ocean, near 50N.

A powerful Extratropical Cyclone, will move into Europe (Great Britain Area), bringing gusty winds and heavy rains, as usual with these mid-latitude cyclones.

A Cold front extends from 50N, 15W, to near 37N, 27W. The front will move into Portugal and Spain on Friday.

The North Central Atlantic dominated by two surface Highs and an Upper Level High/Ridge is still situated West of Morocco.

By Weather456.....16:26UTC.....
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 8:54 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 8:54 PM CDT on August 31, 2006
It looks like this storm may provide higher than average tornadic activity.

I'm curious. Why do you think that. I don't know much about how tornados in tropical cyclones form.


I think this is fairly unpredictable... or at least I never hear the professionals offer a prediction of which hurricanes will spawn a high number of tornadoes. Ivan, that hit us here in Pensacola, set a record for number of tornadoes-- with deaths in Panama City and continuing very far inland. Could the interaction with the frontal system make Ernesto more prone to spin up tornadoes? The front is producing northeasterly windshear just onshore. Seems logical to me, but I'm no experts.
G35wayne...could you point to some news about Wake Island?
Morehead City Base Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Radar picked up velocities of over 120kts both in the positive and negative.

What? Can you give me a link to that?
561. Werd
Could you imagine being that bouy in the eye of Ioke...makes me think of Mission Space at Disney World...baaaaad memories. :O
that radial velocity is showing an at-least constant around the center of 64+ knots...and probly higher than that since thats the highest the radar detects...lol...who knows
The last 3 reports show Ernesto's max winds at 70 & gusts to 85. The pressure was 993, 991, & 988. Ernesto had a pressure of 990 right before it became a hurricane & 997 while it was a hurricane. It looks like the 11 pm advisory might start off like "Hurricane Ernesto..." It looks like a lot of flooding along the eastern seaboard.

Things are starting to pop off the African coast now. It is shaping up to be a very busy September.
Just your normal wunderground radar.


Radial Velocities Run the last 6 (or 40 if you pay) frames.
No telling stories in here...!
penns i tihnk u are right tornados are formed from shear in different levels of the atmosphere. hurricanes cause tornados when there winds hit land and friction causes it so slow at the lower levels while upper levels are still same. this causes rotation and eventually u wiill have tornados. its wierd how some systems cause alot of tornados and others dont. wilma had a high amount of tornados here in south florida last oct and i think it was from interaction with a cold front that pulled it to the ne really fast
1900hurricane, it's the link I posted above.

If you look to the left hand margin of the image, it will give you the maximum and the minimum per frame. Some of these are just awesome. But none are actually at the surface.
acuweather must be predicting one of those new waves in the Atlantic to hit me! lol
Link
When do you think one of waves out there might become an invest??
1900hurricane, where... in outerspacelol!
Thanks HopquickSteve
first time blogger, but i have been lurking here for about two years. i live in Wilmington and am getting some stronger wind gusts (near 40 mph) from Ernie right now; I am hoping when it passes by here tonight that the offshore wind doesnt kill the surf and there is some swell left tomorrow morning @ first light. i enjoy everyone's opinions on this blog and find the info and various differences of opinion interesting.
half of the COC has made Landfall! Looks like no Hurricane?
Posted By: RAYFROMBOSTON at 9:11 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
1900hurricane, where... in outerspacelol!


Just a second, let me check!

: )
I think it's fortunate for the businesses in the area that the word "hurricane" didn't rear it's ugly head ahead of this low pressure strong tropical storm.
Ioke loop is reminding me of what Wilma looked like before hitting the Yucatan penensula last year

Link
looks like its mocing due north now, anybody agree??
LOL! : ) It has been a pleasure tracking this system with all of u, while I dont agree with all of ur opinions, I do RESPECT them and look forward to future storms...Goodnight,p.
WTC says half of the COC has made Landfall! Looks like no Hurricane? Will he start weakening Now?
Welcome surfer.
Ernesto won't regain hurricane status tonight but it really doesn't matter as our friends in NC and VA could be dealing with some major flooding. Good luck to all those in the affected areas. Se ya'll later.
hello from crestview, florida
582. Werd
franck, your funny!

Come on, we need to lighten up this blog; too muck stress and fighting.

Here's my "on topic" comment: Ernesto will hit the Carolina's...but you probably already knew that...right?

;)
Interesting ob from a ship. The 52 kt sustained wind is not hurricane intensity but seas of 29 feet over that short a fetch should have hurricane force winds somewhere around them to produce that. The pressure at 29.16 is under what the recon measured, and the winds is blowing 52 kts indicating the pressure is even lower than that

more here

More info

www.eastcoastwx.net
584. Werd
fwbflbarry...I live in Fort Walton. Pretty small town/area, but there's quite a few of us here.
all right guys...im heading back home...probly wont get back on...gonna rest up....ill be out and about all day tomarrow...should be fun down here in southeastern va tomarrow....yall have a good one...goodnight :)
Johnny Mercer pier at Wrightsville Beach is reporting sustained winds of 48 gusting to 58 kts now. Also a repsectable surge taking place according to their water level. Station ID is JMPN7
One final note, Ernesto must have been a cat 5 on the tropical storm Saffir/Simpson scale at landfall according to the NHC!! : )
Posted By: floridafisherman at 2:04 AM GMT on September 01, 2006. wilma had a high amount of tornados here in south florida last oct and i think it was from interaction with a cold front that pulled it to the ne really fast

Now that you mention it, I remember that with Wilma. It seems like this type of condition would be, to some degree, predictable. Although the possibility of tornadoes is mentioned in the obligatory way on hurricane advisories, you'd think they could forecast a higher-than-average likelihood of tornadoes under when shear is present, wouldn't you?
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 22.0 ft

More here Buoy Report 10:00pm

www.eastcoastwx.net
radar looks a little better and the satellite looks a little worse. No vortex reading for 3 hours, without a new vortex data reading I think they will not upgrade Ernesto, unless a vortex data reading happens very soon.
Where are all of the North Carolinians? Is the power out?! Hook up the generators to the PCs! We want live reports!
Ernie wants to get nasty. Look at the blue turn to white on the last couple of frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
..sees the radar return with a new smaller coc just off of Long Beach.
A ship report at 10pm had 52knt winds but a 29 foot sea, which would have to have hurricane force wind support somewhere near by. Also had a pressure of 29.16 which was lower than recon.
Think Ernesto is a hurricano.
Tropical Storm Ernesto :
Text Information: Public Advisory Marine Advisory Discussion Coordinates Wind Probabilities

Available Maps:

Tracking
5 Day Forecast
Satellite
Radar Loop
Flash Tracker
Historical
Wind
Cumulative Wind
Computer Models
Storm History

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Center of Ernesto near landfall on the North Carolina coast near
Cape Fear...
At 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
from the South Santee River South Carolina southward.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of the South
Santee River to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and
Albemarle sounds. Gale warnings are in effect for the Atlantic
coast and the Chesapeake Bay north of the Tropical Storm Warning
area due to a strong pressure gradient north of Ernesto.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 33.9 north...longitude 78.2 west...or near the
North Carolina coast just west of Cape Fear. This position is also
about 25 miles... 45 km...southwest of Wilmington North Carolina
and about 105 miles...165 km...west-southwest of Cape Lookout North
Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 18 mph...30 km/hr.
A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are
expected during the next 24 hours. This motion should bring the
center inland over eastern North Carolina for the remainder of
tonight and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast as the storm moves inland over North
Carolina.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles...230 km
mainly to the east of the center. The National ocean service
station at Wrightsville Beach North Carolina recently reported a
six-minute average wind of 55 mph with a gust to 67 mph.

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coast of North Carolina in areas of onshore
flow within the warning area. Tides are currently running about 3
feet above normal at Wrightsville Beach.
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians through Saturday...with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches. These amounts could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina and
southeastern Virginia through Friday morning.
Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...33.9 N...78.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...988 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
URNT12 KNHC 010234
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/02:21:20Z
B. 33 deg 44 min N
078 deg 14 min W
C. 850 mb 1320 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 018 deg 049 kt
G. 269 deg 024 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1521 m
J. 19 C/ 1522 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 04
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z
;
No Hurricane
No hurricane as of the 11pm advisory but they say the forward speed is going to decrease.
Ernesto no hurricano. Me no Correcto.
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z

WHERE WERE THEY MEASURING! This will posthomously be upgraded
Something tells me for some reason they just don't want to upgrade it to a hurricane despite the lowered pressure.
70 mph at 11. Its still a tropical storm. Not much chance of a hurricane now.
My neighbor stopped by with and was babbling about how astrology can predict hurricane landfalls. She said something about aquarius, the water sign, casting a shadow of Mars across North Carolina tonight. ????@@!!!! I live in a neighborhood of nuts!
the eye is opening up as it makes landfall
Surfer...head north ...anywhere on the Banks North of Hatteras...will be exposed to the ENE Swell that is being generated by the steep pressure gradient between Ernesto and the Bermuda high off the Mid Atlantic.

Offshore winds.....Gonna be Pumpin' Hairballs.

Enjoy.
607. HCW
Close up of the wind maps can be found here . let me know where you are and I will tell you what you can expect based on the 11pm adv

Link
The 49kts was 29nm to the west of the center, but since then they reported

02:33:00 34.16 -77.7 5000 141 69 70 62 62

69 mph/Gust 70mph
..Ernesto has a look at Landfall ,..very similar to Hurricane Cindy which hit Se Louisiana last July 6-7th..And went on to Tear the Roof off of theAtlanta Motor Speedway as a TD..Cindy was aTropical Storm..most thought .Cindy was Cat 1 Classified in Jan 06.Local landfall archive shows the similar signature of Cindy.Also caused major roof damage near Grand Isle & Power Outages & tree damage in New Orleans proper.
..and the moon will guide the planets, and love will steer the stars..
Just for you Pensacolabuoy.
They did upgrade with Gaston in 2004, but its pressure was 986. Just have to wait for the post storm analysis. Going to wait for the discussion to come out, then go to bed.
Right now winds are steady at 24 mph out of the east gusting to 45 at Southport NC Ernesto is about 15 miles south of Southport .max winds are at 70 . Wrights beach reported a 6 min average of 55 mph with a gust of 64 mph storm is 25 miles ssw of wilmington NC . It looks to me the the storm will make first land fall at Southport NC brazing the edge of southport making its way toward wilmington ,jacksonville ,morehead city.
HCW I'm in Fayetteville,NC what can I expect?
I dont think 70 mph with a 69 mph wind counts as a gust ;-) I couldn't tell that if I was standing out there!
Pensacola, I live in Wilmington about 4 miles inland from Wrightsville and Carolina beaches. I still have power but i have gotten reports of nearly 65 mph gusts along the beaches. all is well for now here in ILM.
No sooner will Ernesto be done for when we'll have two other waves to watch. The one nearest the Northern Leeward Islands is doing remarkably well considering it is surrounded by very dry ai. I don't see how there is any convection with it.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 312038
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE
60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS
TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.


ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
29foot sea? are they kidding this is goona be a cat tonight 110k gust ?

www.eastcoastwx.net
Hope the folks who have the cameras and the microphones aren't letting Ernie sneak up on all the other folks. They are depended on so much.

Johnny Mercer pier @ Wrightsville Beach has had a peak surge of 2.72 feet so far.
Posted By: AM91091 at 9:40 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
MAX FL WIND 49 KT W QUAD 02:13:40 Z

WHERE WERE THEY MEASURING! This will posthomously be upgraded


I agree. Remember, they did this with Tropical Storm Cindy last year that whipped New Orleans early on. They upgraded it to a CAT 1 with 75mph winds.
Where is the Wilmington Airport observation site relative to Wilminton the city and the beaches?
12 miles from ocean isle ,up to 5.4 inchesand a gust a few minutes shook the house.
..Cindy ripped the Meter can & breaker panel offMother-in-laws House..But didnt lose power..Cindy whipped up the Winds to 60plus in the city and it took 1mth to clear the 2 parishes of tree debris.I would go thru katrina in that very same house.
Our oem just said we had about 5oo people without power in Brunswick county.Coop power trucks from the middle of the state just came by heading closer to the coast.
pressure should bottom out at 28.7 then slow rise classic early fall storm at the present pattern may end up being year of lots of activty along eastern seaboard from fla to n.c. if you look in the sat u will a line of disturances shaping up from se us all the way down to high south atlantic off n africa this may prove to be the most active zone
I see the eyewall on the radar fairly easily

Link
recon found max flight level winds of 70 gusts to 72 just to the ne of center. Thats the highest official report I have seen tonight.
ship reports 30 ft wave height? pres 29.16
LOL, Franck! You throw love in there, and I'm a believer!
ship reports 30 ft wave height? pres 29.16

more posted hereShip and Buoy Data
It's startin to kick up here just north of Greenville.

Hey, hardcore... wind prediction for me? (I'm thinking 30-40 max sustained gusts to 45.)

Floodie
..calling it Landfall..long Beach N Carolina..10pm cst..
Looks like my little LB is taking off a bit tonight. Could be TD6 before Sunday at this rate.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY
THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16. ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL POSITION.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY
THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16. ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND
THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS SHIFTED
A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE
INITIAL POSITION.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA
FROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO
HAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE RADAR
SHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS
AGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS
70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS
OVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
ERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
littlefish,

LB=?
We already have a pressure reading 989.1mb with Ernesto not quite landed yet. I imagine it has some serious low pressure associated with it.


Bob's Appliance Repair, Southport-Oak Island, NC = 989.1 hPa

Maybe it's off by an mb or two but still that is low...for a storm that's supposed to only be 988.
The time of Ernesto's jugement has come...
well the sea surface ht is probably based on high tide also . the max winds if you look at flight data is a 4900 ft and all commercial weather stations measure weather at 30 ft high so there you go . if you have a wind at 5000 ft 70 it is likey that you have 30 mph at 30 ft at max if you were able to have a tower at 100 ft you would see winds at or near 45 mph with gust to 70 lol


Apparently this blog likes to duplicate discussions.....
LB is really picking up with the diurnal flare. Stronger than last night. It'll be interesting to see if it can hold the convection thru the night. Looks better organized tonight though, with COC covered in convection! Dr M was definitely right in taking off the 'ignore' label! It'll be getting people's attention once Ernesto dies down IMO. Still a ways to go, but it is looking like it wants to develop...
hardcore do you have a wind & rain forecast for Fayetteville,NC?
The shape of the NC coastline should keep part of the eye hanging out over the water for an extra hour or two. Hang on, Morehead City and Jacksonville. You're about to get that outer squall line. I hate those!
,,heads up in Wilmington..your eyewall feature has arrived and the biggest arc is coming in the next hour..
is LB one of the tropical waves?
Ya,it's the one east of the N Leeward Islands. I'm just curious what LB stands for.
Some storm totals of 10" beginning to show up on the doppler estimates... with a long way to go!
LB is the closed circulation at 17N 53W...
We already have pressures way below the 988 gotten by the hurricane hunters.

pressure
initial 01/0300z 33.9n 78.2w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/1200z 35.7n 77.3w 45 kt..inland

I live at 35.70N 77.35W. Looks like an 8am breakfast w/ Ernie lol.

Floodie
Yeah Patrap Wilmington is in line for the strongest part of the storm with the 65-70 mph winds.
Just came off Wrightsville Beach, as expected, very little wind damage to be seen, surface flooding another story. Landfall subdivision on the intracoastal pretty much impassable at current time. FYI - snakes all over the place may need to call Sam Jackson to Wilmingon.
LB stands for 'Little Bugger', apparently it was so small Dr M 'ignored' it, but he quickly recanted and now it is looking to be a player in his discussion tomorrow. It has surface circulation and now has convection over COC... Located around 16-17N and 53W.
..Hunker down..stay alert for rotation within that arc..its heavily loaded and may spin off some vortices as the winds translate down .to the surface
LB = Little Blob?
A monster says "Hi"!!!

Link
LB=Little Bugger or Little Blob. Both sound appropriate, but it is getting bigger tonight (still small). Anyhow, LB looks to be on the watch list in the Atlantic tomorrow as it approaches the northern Lesser Antilles.
..possible hook echo on that arc swinging into Wilmington...
Yeah, the little COC has a lot of nasty surprise in it. It looks like part or all of the COC may be back over water off Virginia/Chesapeake in a few hours.
littlefish that wave has all the ingredients besides the massive amount of dust in front. But the llc has been there for awhile now and the burst of convection is impressive considering all the dust. Dr. Maters mentions by Sunday it should be in a more moist environment. Definately worth watching considering by Sunday it should be by Puerto Rico.
Ernesto now making landfall

Link

It almost looks like Ernie has concentric eyewalls.
According to the local weather sites near wilmington, NC, several 986-988mb readings have already been taken. But I'm not seeing high winds yet, just low pressures.
Glad the Sun isn't coming up on all those Nimbus clouds coming ashore. Just makes them angrier.
Thanks for the Africa loop, 1900. Next week should be interesting. Just for the record, the NHC's forecast on Saturday had Ernesto hitting us (Pensacola) this morning as a CAT 3. This business is like a bunch of state troopers trying to predict the path of a drunk driver!
Velocity

Link
Long Beach, North Carolina. One of the sites had a 985.7mb reading. Well below the 988 predicted.
..Wilmington now in the eyewall feature..Max winds till the event passes to its North..
Southport, NC has a pressure of 989 mb.

Link
..seen the landfall @ 2200 cdt..long beach..NC

Night y'all! Good luck to everyone in NC!
Long Beach, North Carolina. One of the sites had a 985.7mb reading. Well below the 988 predicted.

Anyone smell a TCR in March 2007 .....Ernesto Upgraded to a Hurricane before landfall
ANOTHER tornado warning for Carteret County...

Floodie
Posted By: Accordionboy at 10:21 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
Long Beach, North Carolina. One of the sites had a 985.7mb reading. Well below the 988 predicted.

Anyone smell a TCR in March 2007 .....Ernesto Upgraded to a Hurricane before landfall


I'm smellin it
The offshore action is unusually strong in Ernesto.
..Thats a good Cat 1 pressure reading @ landfall..and I believe the wind field analyasis will pan out a cat 1..in the post data..Like Cindy..either way..Lets give the folks in Wilmington,..a Good Luck in the fray..stay put..till the worst passes..
..thats looks like the rotation @ the turn of the Wilmington Arc..to its SW..
08/31/2006 0625 PM

Morehead City, Carteret County.

Tornado, reported by public.


Roof damage on a home reported just east of downtown
Morehead City





08/31/2006 0705 PM

Stacy, Carteret County.

Tornado, reported by public.


Large waterspout moved onshore near Stacy. No damage
reported.




This is unrelated to Ernesto, but It looks like Ioke could hit Tokyo head on in a couple of days

Link
Pensacolabuoy..isn't it something. If Ernie brings all that onshore, it's going to be rough.
It looks like Ernestos CoC is going to be at least partly over water until Wilmington. Did it move to the East some?
vortex, ya it'll be over more moist air but I was saying earlier that Chris was born similarly in a bunch of dry air. Near the same locale too (a bit west). And at least for now LB has very little shear. Looks like late tomorrow, the ULL N of Hispaniola may start to act on it a bit if ULL doesn't move west fast enough or dissipate. Looks like the high protecting LB is forecast to dissipate tomorrow, so LB will be on its own. Personally, looking at tonight's convection, I think it might make it thru a little wind shear. It even has some weak banding.
Radar loop of Ernesto

Link
Making landfall now on Cape Fear
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 10:27 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
This is unrelated to Ernesto, but It looks like Ioke could hit Tokyo head on in a couple of days

Link


I don't really buy the forecast intensity (see here for why). Either every global model is smoking crack or...
I live on Yokosuka Navy base in Japan which is a little south of Toyko. they are saying now that it is headed right for us. Is there a possibilty that Ioke will weaken before is gets closer to us???
I'm not buying the intensity forcast, either. It looks like Ioke has just finished a ERC (again) and will continue to strenghen.

Link
I am not really sure if the models are forecasting an increase in size or intensity, but they do have Ioke get deeper and larger (unfortunately, there is nothing like the GFDL for the West Pacific; maybe this is why the GFDL was going crazy in the last few runs before it reached the West Pacific). This site does have model forecasts, but they are restricted.
By the looks of it, both
Here is the last intesity forecast before Ioke crossed over.
LB is alive and well tonight. Could be TD6 on the way before long. The convection is continuing and covering COC.
Visible shows a truly beautiful storm

LInk
You can find the North Pacific GFS model here. In 1 hour it should have at least 1 week out for the 0z run

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/npac/gfs/00/model_su.shtml
JUst got here... Am I wrong, or did ernesto just make landfall?
Posted By: weatherphobic at 10:45 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
JUst got here... Am I wrong, or did ernesto just make landfall?


You are correct
Ioke IR

Link
Same model, better resolution

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/npac/gfs/00/model_lu.shtml
IOKE!!!!!!!!!!!! Is actually slightly weakening, down to 150MPH sustained. What an absolutely amazing storm. Now, back to the Atlantic:
LB is making a case to become TD6 sooner rather than later... 17N 53W.
tornado warning perquimans co., near hertford soon

Floodie
Hi, i'm new.

I am confused by Ioke.
TRS forecast the storm to weaken, the model forecast intensification.

I think it will make in to Japan and hit just N of Tokyo. CAT 3?
Ioke WV

Link
He did..Long Beach, NC. Just saw Jim Cantore..of course he's in the western part of the eye. Never fails, see him coming you'd better hit the road.
03:35:30 34.3 -77.7 4997 150 75 76 58 58

75mph at 5000', NE side. Still not thru the eye yet.
The reason I think it weakened is because it just finished one of it's many ERCs
712. AndyN
Earlier this week someone asked if our HH were allowed to fly into Cuban airspace.Here is a great article on US/Cuban relations regarding weather:Link
713. HCW
TROPICAL STORM Ernesto TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1140 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...CENTER OF Ernesto MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA...

DATA FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN WILMINGTON INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF Ernesto MADE LANDFALL NEAR
LONG BEACH NORTH CAROLINA AT 1130 PM EDT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH.

$$
HARDCOREWEATHER.COM
Link
i'm in the mountians of ne georgia, and you guys might be surprised at the volume of inland tornadoes we get due to tropical storms, especially when a ts from the se meets a heavy front from the nw...
I'm sure you virginians know what I mean...
I can tell that Ioke just underwent another EWRC because the eye momentarially gets distorted then gets larger than before.
716. Inyo
not to direct attention away from your 'cane but what is wrong with John? It looks like several huge random thunderstorms are sucking his power away! It looks like he's about to split into like 3 storms
Jim Cantore... you may know him as the "Angel of Death"

"the shortest straw has been pulled for you..."

Watchin the creek,
Floodie
John IR

Ya, that's wierd
we gout about five in. of rain today despite what the radars say(34.6n, 83.5W)
MichaelSTL... Also, the last GFDL run for Ioke forecast a 860 mb, 220 mph storm. From the forecast paths, Japan REALLY better prepare for Ioke.
Wow!!!
It seems like some people on this blog are not getting their wishes of catastrophic huricanne developement.
Watch The Pacific and we'll be happy with El Nino.
John sucked up a bunch of tequilla in Guadalajara and spun off into the Pacific in a drunken stupor!
LB will be! Here is another discounter of LB (Dr. M's former 'ignore' then 'don't ignore' wave :)...) from tonight's discussion on Atlantic:

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc along 51w S of 21n moving
W near 10 kt. A 1012 mb low is along the wave near 16n. The sfc
low remains weak and easy to locate as it mainly a low-level
swirl devoid of any significant convection. Because of the lack
of organization....significant development is not expected at
this time.


It is actually now about 53W and 16-17N with closed circulation and decent convection directly over COC. Can it hold convection over center for another 8-10 hours and develop? We'll see. I'm not at all discounting LB... I think tomorrow LB will be a player in discussions. And maybe Saturday/Sunday will be TD6...
Evening Ya'll!

I just got back from Long Beach. The ocean was angry, but by time I actually got out there the eye was just beginning to make land fall. I waited around right until the winds switched. Looks like the back side will be coming through now. I have a feeling that Wilmington got the worst of this one. There were some decent wind gusts here, but never lost power and did not see any trees down on our treck out to the Beach. Not a lot of footage due to it being night.

Ya'll have a great night. I will more on Ernesto in the next couple of days!

Easily find some of the best weather sites on the web. Including forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, and much more...StormJunkie.com
good evening to all!

will40 - hope all is well is your area - same to all other on here in path of Ernesto..
If Ioke just finished another ERC, shouldn't it get stronger again?

Ioke RB IR

Ioke RGB
5 inches! Where u at, phobic?

I'm at 35.70N 77.35W... just N of Greenville NC.

Floodie
728. AndyN
Anybody know of any sites that have managed to get pics of Wake Island? But I suppose it is still pretty bad around there and impossible to fly into or around
Tornatic activity? You mentioned a "hook." Do you look at the radar or satellite images. How does this activity present? What do you look for in order to identify it?
You still mispelled "Y'all" SJ

: )
1900, Did you ready Andy's article on Cuban-American relations?

Excerpt: Cuba has long pumped money into meteorological research. In 1900, Cuban meteorologists tried to warn U.S. weather officials of the danger of a hurricane that was moving into the Gulf of Mexico. Their predictions were dismissed by Americans and the storm killed at least 8,000 people in Galveston, Texas, according to Erik Larson, author of "Isaac's Storm: A Man, a Time, and the Deadliest Hurricane in History."
18Z GFS position of Ioke at 174hrs. We'll see the 0z shortly.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/npac/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_174l.gif

Looks like a discovery channel special I watched a couple months ago...
Hurricane season is going to have a hard time really getting together as long as that large mass of African dust is sitting half way out in the atlantic. Hopefully it stays there and comes all the way to the US coast line and stops.

Looks like now that our wave has moved past the dust its getting some better convection. Still has a little dust to deal with but I call that is our next TD.
If you are interested, I still ahve a frame that I saved from it. Link

The forecast was incorrect bacause that date on it is for today.
We have an unconfirmed Ernesto pressure of 985.0.
Officially 6.5 inches of rain in Wilmington and Mt. Pleasant, according to CNN.
goodnight, he should start weakening soon, and I think there will be winds of only 55 MPH @ 2 AM EST! and By the time Ernesto makes it to VA, I think there will be winds of about 30-35 MPH Winds!
Floodie,
Clarkesville, Ga,
There was no real wind but the rain fell, and fell, and fell somemore..
Good evening, AllyBama! We're trying to stay dry... it's no Floyd (thank God!) but it's starting to put the rain down (and spin up some tornadoes too).

Floodie
Yes, I did read it. I've read Issac's Storm before, too.
TWC is showing Wrightsville beach right now. It sure looks like a Hurricane to me.
Looks like it is getting stronger 1900. The eye is much clearer and convection seems to be wrapping back around it better.
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 11:02 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
If you are interested, I still ahve a frame that I saved from it. Link

The forecast was incorrect bacause that date on it is for today.


Ya, the GFDL was really acting wierd a few days with Ioke.
it's been raining here for days already, and some of those bands that ernesto let slack-- well, only the farmers say we need the water...
Phobic... if y'all feel cheated and need some more rain, we'll give you some of ours.

Floodie
Hi ALLY GRITS gurl i have gusts around 45mph im still about an hour from the center been lots of tornado reports and the rain is like a monsoon
Posted By: Barkeep1967 at 11:03 PM CDT on August 31, 2006.
TWC is showing Wrightsville beach right now. It sure looks like a Hurricane to me.


I'm watching it right now. Those winds are much stronger than the ones I saw with Rita
748. AndyN
Looking good off coast of Afrika:Link
'preciate it, floodie, but i don't grow corn...
How big is Ioke? It looks like she is taking up much of the West-Centeral Pacific.

Link
Trouper415, you're a believer in LB? (Little Blob/Little Bugger) I also think it may become TD6 if that convection can hold a bit better. It is already waning, but the burst tonight was even stronger than last night. Tomorrow may be a day of growth for LB... Now about 16-17N and 53W...
One last convective explosion before moving onshore.

Floater IR
Night Y'all.
littlefish,
i'm paying attention
Night 1900.

Will40 where u at? I think I've asked you before but my memory ain't so good...

Floodie
Emerald Isle floodie
Ioke information from Japan Meteorolgical Agency (in english)

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

TS winds nearly 420nm in diameter
I think it will be the next littlefish. It has been the waves that have stuck around the longest this year that have made it big. I think this little wave is the same way.
Probably the last vortex message for Ernie

URNT12 KNHC 010412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/03:43:20Z
B. 34 deg 01 min N
078 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 150 deg 066 kt
G. 055 deg 027 nm
H. EXTRAP 988 mb
I. 15 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1524 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 2405A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 03:35:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
Good night all. I'll be rooting for little LB to become TD6. Don't want one of those fat African storm monsters coming off the coast this weekend to grab TD6 status. I like LB's chances for Saturday/Sunday if it can avoid shear...
One last thing...
IOKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stay safe, Will40! What are your winds?

The monsoon has hit us now! The NHC track has COC right on top of me at 8 am.

Will be interesting to see wind effects then...
hi does anyone have a link to a tv news station where earnie is hitting now with video thanks
Oops...

Will40 that was from me...

Floodie
767. AndyN
Anyone who thinks the storms coming off the coast of Africa are getting better odds of forming and the Atl is becoming more favorable for formation raise your hand
For Ioke fans, check this page out

WOW

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/index.html?area=3&element=0&mode=UTC
Tornado warning in Kenansville, NC.
gusts around 50mph floodie the way it looked at wrighstville beach every thing ramped up all at once
Wilmington should be in the worst of it right now. Anyone from Wilmington on here?
GREAT SHOT Canenut. Ioke is a true beast of a lady.
Ioke's freakin' bigger than Katrina in terms of overall size.

A few of the TWC guys are getting whipped pretty good, moreso than I'd expect to see in a TC. I wouldn't doubt the post-season Erika/Gaston/Cindy treatment. Make this Year 4 of the upgrades.
*disregard above

Ioke's freakin' bigger than Katrina in terms of overall size.

A few of the TWC guys are getting whipped pretty good by Ernesto, moreso than I'd expect to see in a TS. I wouldn't doubt the post-season Erika/Gaston/Cindy treatment. Make this Year 4 of the upgrades.
We're at about 15 w/ gusts to 24 right now.

These tornados are more numerous than I anticipated...

Floodie
littlefish....you root for it and i'll root against it...i'm going on a cruise next week ;)
Thanks for the update, Floodie. The northeasterly shear from the front is going to create a more favorable environment for tornadoes to spin up from Ernesto. Get ready for a wild ride tonight. Flooding and greater than average number of tornadoes will be the news tomorrow morning.
sorry floodie i lost my dsl think i gonna shut this bad boy down for a while you keep an eye on that tar river
Night will40.

Pensacola... I'll try to keep updating now and again. I'm sure I'll be up all night anyway lol.

Floodie
Has anyone seen any 60-70mph winds from Ernesto. The winds are so low, but then so is the pressure.

There are several stations reporting 985.0 - 985.3. That would be a hurricane any other day, but the winds I've seen are all in the 40mph range.
What are the local news stations saying in the Carolinas about the flooding?
New Bern & Morehead City really getting popped right now.
Troup... a large chunk of counties in the path of Ernie (including Pitt) were just put under a flood warning until 630 am. Of course, places in the NE corner like Elizabeth City got 5.5 inches yesterday from the cold front.

Luckily the rivers are pretty low (3ft in G'ville) but are predicted to crest at 18.8 ft next week... flood stage is 13.0).

I live near a creek so it's the flash flooding that has me on alert. I've been flooded twice in 7 years...
To Clarify... I'm just N of Greenville North Carolina...

Floodie
Alright thanks for the update Floodzone and I hope you dont get any flooding out of this.

Thanks... gonna go out and see what's going on.

Floodie
Ernesto taking a more Eastward track now, LOOK.
Floodie,
take care tonite, and all of the rest of you sitting under ernesto. Tornadoes arelike tiny little insta-matic hurricanes. Unfortunately, we can't banter about them for a week-and-a-half like the tropical waves around the cape verdes. Be safe...
phobic
Hello everyone,

Posted By: AndyN at 4:22 AM GMT on September 01, 2006.
Anyone who thinks the storms coming off the coast of Africa are getting better odds of forming and the Atl is becoming more favorable for formation raise your hand


Hey Andy,
For what its worth, I belive the wave thats @ the african coast has the best chance to develop over the weekend. The CIRA genesis potential map has the area off africa with the best environmental factors. The wave is currently showing some good convection right off the coast.(diurnal max approaching) It'll just depend on how it persists during the day tomm. as diurnal min approaches.
Kabraxis,
not back out to sea, i hope, am i right? BTW, is "kabraxis a santana reference?
Gotta run (tomorrow's a work day)> Good luck ya'll in NC! Batten down the hatches!
Oh yeah, reason #3 is that it is in a mouisture rich area.
Yes...wow thats awesome. I didnt think anybody would catch on! It is supposed to be Carlos, but instead w/ a K. It was a screen name of mine awhile ago, because cabraxis was taken. By the way, have yall seen the new UKMET model? This storm ould parallel the oast for awhile. NC also has alot of inlets of water, so i wonder if this will weaken or do what it did over S Florida...interesting
kabraxis,
based on your radar post, it almost looks like it could bow towards the southeast out of wilmington. Is that possible? or will that high pressure zone keep it inland?
Track
The newer the model update, the further East the storm tracks. Anyone agree?
Radar
Actually, it is NE of Wilmington right now I believe, but the track has now shifted to more of a NE fashion. Lets see how long it continues...
I believe the new UKMET model is fairly acurate, but I dont think it will make it that far east. Things could change with good ol' Ernesto
If E. stumbles off land... Cape Hatteras has a history of horrible weather and shipwrecks dating back to Noah. Could be a tropical breeding ground?
It is possible that Hatteras could get stronger than expected winds, but I dont expect the storm center to come over that far East. They will however get strong winds and heavy rainfall.
at Topsail beach on the intercoastal wind out of the west now about 60+ sustained. Unofficially didn't get much above 70-from my daugher 5 min ago. Looks like the center went over Cape Fear area. At Kill Devil Hills wind NE light. Off and on hard rain.
The wife and I spent a night camping on Shackleford Island. They said a 40% chance of isolated t-storms. It was like we were in hell, and that was no tropical storm. I won't go back if they forecast so much as "light rain mist"
Wave at 16N 52W IMO, going to be a player within the next 36 - 48 Hrs. Even surrounded by dry air it's finding what it needs. Getting into more fav conditions soon and that could be just what it wants to make a run.
Waves off Afr. have better then good (65% IMO) chance to get their S together too.
Got a feeling things are going to get cooking..fast.
Maybe a slow start for some, but that may be short lived.
In closing,
May the air be dry and the shear be high. Above all never panic...just be prepared.
NeverPanic,
I had that wave a little farther wnw. (51.5 w, 17.5 N) an I wrong?
weather,
Not at all, your probably closer then I. Hard to get a fix on IR. I find Visable more reliable.
LOL! Latest advisory took Ernesto down to 987 mb over land!

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 30A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
...STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND HEAVY RAINS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTH OF ERNESTO.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST...OR
INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH
CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...25 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER FARTHER INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES INLAND OVER NORTH
CAROLINA. A WIND GUST TO 70 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT
WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987
MB...29.15 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE
FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
I was showing that Ernesto had several readings of 985 at landfall...It didn't go down as much as the planes didn't catch the lowest pressure, imo.

Several readings of 985.0-985.4mb, yet the highest windspeed was 59.0mph. However, most of the weather sites use the 5 minute method. Do we still use the 1 minute method in gauging strength?
Hop, Unless they changed the rules in mid stream it's still 1 min max sustained.
That's what I thought. So what several of the sites gauged as "gusts" might qualify as windspeed. Since most of the weather sites I looked at use 5 minute, the wind speeds might be higher.
THIS IS NUTS..I dont think I have ever seen a Tropical Storm with a 985MB pressure..I have no clue why this was not upgraded at 11:00PM to a hurricane..This has to be the first tropical in nature storm to have such a low pressure and not be a hurricane..Any comments..

PS I dont think the pressure is done dropping..Could go done another 10MB...It wont be fully tropical but the wind field is going to expand bigtime soon...I find this to be one of the more interesting storms I have seen in a while..Many questions with this storm and I think the answers will come later...

Bye the way that monster in the East Pac..All I have to say is WOW..What a beast..Is that thing ever going to die??...I think not its going to be foever before that goes away..Too bad they could not fly into that storm would of been real interesting to take some readings on it..Is the GFDL still off the chart on the pressure on it...I think I saw some where that it was predicting a presure of 860MB..Is that even possible???...And how could it ever be proven..Maybe it already hit that low and we dont even know it...PEACE
well i cant believe you didntknow it was a tropical storm comming lol
is the area of h pressure below the carolinas possibly affecting the wind speed readings, or am i just tired? Could that be responsible for an inland pressure miscalculation?
Is it me or my tired eyes? But is the wave weatherphobic has (from what I see now) pasted at 51.5 w, 17.5 N starting to push a little more on a Westward track?
Sorry, forgot the link.
Link
"Thanks... gonna go out and see what's going on.

Floodie" (5 am GMT)


Where the heck did he go?
NeverPanic,
That link almost looks SW
Acuweather is predicting sustained winds of 45mph here tomorrow (Norfolk, Va), with gusts to 83!! Crazy if they are right. So far, they have been right on the money, predicting that tonight we will have sustained winds of 25 w/ gusts to 40- whih we have now. Already we have some limbs down, and the peak of the storm will be in 12 more hrs! That must be a strong High to reate suh a pressure gradiant!
they'll always forecast the worst, kabraxis, but i agree that sounds a little extreme
I think we will get gusts to around 60-65 though, due to the large pressure gradiant.
neverpanic, do you think this wave might clip the top of south america like they said ernesto would? It would be nice to have a break...
wait....nevermind....


Overland according to the SSD
weatherphobic,
Ran the last 2 loops over and over and over......the burst on th NE just gives the illusion of a W movement. Sorry, my bad. But on the other hand. Seems to be getting a bit more , shall I say, healthier?
well, we survived ernesto..... trip back took a loooooong time..... roads flooded, some trees down, had to travel west to go south. Want to thank SJ and his girlfriend for the great time we had in ocean isle.....

the COC went right overhead..... wind were gusting about 45mph my guess, and then just got calm...... first time ever i can say i experienced that!

alls well that ends well! :)

well.... need to rest
Is it me or is john looking really healthy, and the computer models have nearly all sbhifted path to head toward the US.southwest but the forecast track has not changed?
As matter of fact it think he might have the dreaded pinhole eye
ok well maybe someone will see these last three posts in the morning. If ya get chance check it out (John). the thing reminds me when andrews bottom dropped out it and slammed s florida. Has a really tight eye and well defined eyewall and the models now look as it could clobber the baha peninsula and bring ridiculous rain and flooding to the desert southwest. good night


100 knots sustained winds with a center pressure of 960 mb
"eye" shows up on visible satelitte as well
The wife and I spent a night camping on Shackleford Island. They said a 40% chance of isolated t-storms. It was like we were in hell, and that was no tropical storm. I won't go back if they forecast so much as "light rain mist"
Even with a 1% chance of TS i wouldn't go camping...
833. SLU
Posted By: EricNielsen at 9:37 AM GMT on September 01, 2006.
The wife and I spent a night camping on Shackleford Island. They said a 40% chance of isolated t-storms. It was like we were in hell, and that was no tropical storm. I won't go back if they forecast so much as "light rain mist"
Even with a 1% chance of TS i wouldn't go camping...


LOL

That's why they say that the weather is unpredictable
I'm in Greenville, NC and I have winds gusting to 50 MPH right now.
Peak Wind Gust I recorded was 63mph SSE on the Neuse River 6 miles South of New Bern,NC. Live Webcam running.
Patrick
www.neuseweather.com
Link
836. HCW
Check out the 5am windmaps for Ernie

Link
Guess what it is Sept 1. Good morning all. Snook season is on. Wave at 5o is our next player.
current condition just nw of richmond...moderate rain...winds 15 mph, gusts to 26... no its not on the net...but i plan to get some gear that i can connect...anyone have suggestions on aomw good equipement to connect real time online?
any*...sorry just woke up...lol
840. WSI
Well Ernesto came in a little south of my landfall prediction. I figured he would come in around Wilmington.

Just drizzling here in the Piedmont of NC this morning. Still some flood warning just east of me, but my area is under not watches or warnings now.

A few news stories on the landfall are in the news section of weathercore.com.

Well, I slept throught the whole landfall. Hopefully this was his fourth and Final landfall!
842. IKE
Alright Ernie....

You've gone over ......

Haiti

Cuba

South Florida

And now North Carolina

I'm sick of the E storm....so die Ernie....die...DIE!!!!!!!!!!

There...I feel better......
Good morning everyone,

Is it that Ernie's bark is worse than his bite? - all week long?

Last week this time we were preparing like mad here in Jamaica.

I think Ernie is a most decent guy...after all...he has been kind to nearly everyone...I vote for the name Ernesto to be used again...

What do you think?
IKE....How about that pressure drop on land....again.
Good Morning all,
Ocean View section of Norfolk, VA here. currently have power but more than 60,000 already without. Wind gust 40 to 60 MPH. Very heavy rain. Some street flooding. Not much in the way of tidal flooding because its low tide.
Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel closed to all but Passenger cars. No Suv's, trucks, campers, trailers, or car top carriers. Now 70,000 without power.
Worst is leaving Greenville now. Several reports of cars in water (sigh!)...

Pressure is 29.28in (what is this in mb... forgot the conversion)?
Pressure still dropping in Greenville... 29.26 in ...

Ernesto has been a nuisance but as long as we don't get another storm this season!

Floodie
Hundreds of report of accidents and stalled vehicles coming in more than can be counted. Traffic sucks here on a good day.
buenos dias hey u guys see the atlantic getting active and what with the mini blob approaching the islands
look
intersting flare up near the antilles
look
interesting flare up near the antilles
oh by the way i installed my personal weather station i will plug it into my comp and put it on my blog this weekend just click on my name to monitor it!
Good Morning...Look how large Ernesto is......

Just waking up now....man is it crazy here! Gusts are in the 50's, branches are coming down like crazy! You can see sheets if rain coming down, and the wind taking them in some random direction!
Where you at, kabraxis?

Floodie
Im preparing for Ernesto now. Did a little yard cleanup and put the lawn furniture away. I will be camping in PA this weekend and they said something like 4 to 8inches of rain but high winds. Do you guys really think the winds will be as bad as they say by the time he gets to PA??
Chesapeake Virginia
good morning my friends,

so where did ernesto make landfall exactly? between Holden Beach and Oak Island?

Just curious...
hey kab...i am over in greenbrier...were getting it pretty good here too
hey guys, how can i measure the wind here??
Ernesto landfall at Long Beach.
I just talked with my parents who live in Murfreesboro, NC (at the NC/VA line 30 mi east of I-95) they said the have gotten 7 in of rain so far and pretty good gusts of wind. Nothing terribly bad. Some minor flooding, no trees down and they still have power.

For some reason SW VA usually gets it worse than NE NC. I don't know why but it does. My mom lives in Va Beach as well so hopefully I wlll hear from here soon.
VA......easiest way without any equipment...is to type in your zip code here at the top of the page, left side.....it will give you your areas..winds temps and such..then in that section..look for a personal weather station..and find the one that is closest to where you live.
Vabeach,

go outside and see if you have to hold on to a tree or a street light like cantore does. If so then the winds pretty strong ~60 mph. JOKE
good morning rand
i want to set up my own personal weather station....haha fran
thanks randrewl, I couldn't tell from the storm track maps and I didn't see any articles about it either. My aunt lives in Southport which is just across the cape fear. They probably got it pretty good!
ricderr...Morning back. I slept through the landfall. Can't wait to hear from StormJunkie.
me either...and he said last night he would be filming...supposed to put it on his website
fran1983...here's an article.

I imagine anyone on the east side got it pretty good.
Stay safe all of you down near the coast. Here in North Central NC we've had a few pretty good gusts go by with some of the outer edges of rain.
ricderr...I believe he is still there. Thel got home around 3 or 4 am...he posted up the blog I saw.
thanks randrewl. you said you slept through the landfall? where you located at?
fran1983...No, I'm not in NC. Florida here.
Oh okay. so what you think of the waves that are in the shadows of ernesto. Do you think we might have something?
we have to watch the waves one that has been a mere rotation is now finnaly gathering moisture it's going to be approaching the hot waters in the islands lets see what happens to that one then theres the string of pearls that reach to the the oppisite coast of africa very interesting time right now
fran1983...I have only glanced out there today. I need to take a closer look. Probably time to do that.
fran, that little persistant wave due East of the northern most Lesser Antilles has been fighting off extremely dry air. I can't believe the covection it had yesterday. I think this is one to watch as conditions will gradually improve as it nears Puerto Rico...also known as "Herbert's Box".
880. IKE
Ernie..."Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...80
km/hr...with higher gusts.".....

DIE ERNIE!!!!!

DIE!!!!!!

Now ...I feel much better. It's working!
just clicki on my name youll see some of what i am talking about
Ike, Ernie and The Astros are kind of similar. Just when you think one is dead, it makes a come back.
it's spinning clockwise even .. no worries mate
884. IKE
Posted By: SWLAStormFanatic at 7:16 AM CDT on September 01, 2006.
Ike, Ernie and The Astros are kind of similar. Just when you think one is dead, it makes a come back.


GO ASTROS!!!!!!

Beat the hated Mets!!!!!!!

6 in a row!!!!!!!
Good morning Randrel
Good morning everyone.
Good morning Nash
888. IKE
Good morning from NW Florida...where the dew points are lower and a great weekend is upon us.

Well, Ernie is certainly causing an ugly day in the Carolinas. However, looking ahead, the global models are showing an increase in activity this weekend.
We are having high sixty temps in the am the next few days feels great.
Morning Nash and sandcrab39565.
Stob bragging about the cool weather already! Some of us still have another six weeks of this miserable heat and humidity! lol
Rand I went out early this am and caught some nice speckled trout. The MS sound was slick.
Anybody had a chance yet to really look at the Atlantic this morning? Thoughts/comments
ok, this must have been a Hurricane, B/c Over night this thing has Crossed the State lof NC and is still packing winds of 60 MPH!!!
morning rand, sandcrab.
sandcrab39565...Good for you on the trout! I have to go out and clean up the yard again this morning. I had higher gusts through here yesterday and more rain than I received from Ernesto. Palm fronds and stuff scattered around today.
Good Morning from Wilmington! A lot less damage then they are reporting on the news. Left an hour early to get to work, and got to work in record time. No trafic lights were out and all the major roads were fine. Lets hope the rest of this season is just as mild!
pandora1783...Great news. Happy to hear a positive report.
We never even lost power last night! And I live in an old neighborhood where all the lines are above ground!
good morning all

A quick check in and a few comments on the ATL before heading off to work
The system near 55W has been heading due S of W and is now near 15N. It has lost about 2 degrees of Lat in the last 2 days or so. While it is currently very disorganised there is a well defined surface low. The loss of Lat means it will likely track through the Caribbean. The W Caribbean is known for being a breeding ground of very strong systems and we will have to watch this one carefully.

The system in the CATL is still trying to get its act together and has about another day and a half before I expect to see and significant development. It too looks to be headed for the Caribbean and anything entering the Caribbean is a potential threat to the GOM and the SE US

There is a ULL to the NE of the system at 55W and it appears to be sliding ever so slowly SW. If that continues to do so it may well have a say on what the CATL wave does.

My two cents for now

Have a good one

I hope our friends in the Carolinas are doing ok with Ernesto
Heavy Rain in Richmond, But Most of the heavy rain is East of us!
one more quick post

there are two ULLs that will factor into what happens in the ATL.
One is N of the PR area moving WNW and the other is in the N Central ATL sliding SW
If the one near PR comtinues to move away and the other stays fairly far N the two systems we are watching will have a good chance to develop

Link
wilmington here
no major damage that i can tell
we did lose power and our lines are underground pandora!
i don't want to alarm anyone..but...if ernesto...turns west...then...takes a southern trajectory and gets pushed down by a northern front...ernesto will hit the gulf states as a cat 3 or higher....
The stoerm hasn't made that N NW Turn yet, it's still going NNE!
sorry, wrong link re previous post
here is the correct one re the ULLs
Link
cats, dogs, mice wholly crap is it coming down in richmond
ricderr...ernesto will hit the gulf states as a cat 3 or higher....

That's after it restrengthens over the Great Lakes!
LOL Ricderr!!!
mrpuertorico, great pictures, thank you. will checking your site more often
exactly...and rememember..doc masters reported they were higher than normal this year.....ernesto..could get ugly real quick....huricane watches should already be posted for areas nearby...darn the NHC..they are too slow to react to what is so obvious to everyone else..i think it's a bush conspiracy...good thing max is retiring
i just checked the link from kmanislander...what the heck is THAT?
One area worth watching. Overall right now not too interesting.

Well said gulf scottman. It is always good to be lucky. Next time Ernesto might not be so kind. Interesting weather in the cent. atlantic.
Does anyone know why the models expect Ernesto to turn to the West .can anyone tell that part of the tell.Can anyone give a reasonable answer to why
and if Eresto does turn West as it enters Canada what then do they expect Ernesto to do and where do they expect Eresto to go or the reminents of Ernesto .?
Dont give up on John yet computers did a little flip flop.

Remnants of Ernesto will be forced a bit Westward due to a high to the North. Unfortunately the pressure gradient between the two will be causing the gale force winds forecast along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
[url]http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,211658,00.html[/url]

Intresting link here
If John comes into Southern California (which will be catastrophic enough), THEN where will he go? Across, east, back down into the gulf?
A cold high blowing into a warm low -- won't that create massive rainfall at the interface?

What does history say about storms over the Baja Peninsula? Will John be able to pull an Ernie and maintain or strenthen over land, fed by the warm waters of the Gulf of California?
Zap
saddlegait...Across, east, back down into the gulf?

Oh no!
Morning from Denver...Clear and beautiful here!
Randrewl, that's 2 areas worth watching:)!! There's "LB" at 16-17N 54W and also the 12N 37-38W feature! Both look more organized today. LB is the one with decent LLC, but both have some LLC.
937. jeffB
Gaah, here we go again, from the 8AM advisory:

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...80
km/hr...with higher gusts.


[...]

Repeating the 800 am EDT position...35.8 N...77.6 W. Movement
toward...north near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...990 mb.


I don't think the NHC needs to run everything past an editor, but come on! This is the same thing that happened yesterday afternoon.
Unfortunately the forecast intensity of John does not weaken that much in 48hrs. Darn thing could be a hurricane hit on the San Diego area after all.
I don't think ANYONE in San Diego would know how to deal with a hurricane. They aren't that well at dealing with rain at all!
Oh don't say there is a chance of hitting san diego...family out there busts my chops for moving into hurricane territory (in savannah now)...should i call and warn them? lol
Good Morning All......

Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part One...Tropical Storm Ernesto
Friday, September 1, 2006.......


Tropical Storm Ernesto made landfall, last night, just west of Cape Fear at 11 pm EDT on August 31, just below hurricane strength at 70mph and a MCP of 991mbars. (Correct me if Im wrong).

Ernesto brought TS forced winds and flooding rains of up to 10in to areas of South/North Carolina, overnight, last night.

As of 8:00amEDT, Ernesto was located at35.8N/77.6W, moving towards the north at 15mph. Ernesto has sustain winds of 60mph, and a MCP of 990mbars.

Ernesto will continue to move NE and then push back west by an Upper Level Mid-Latitude Low coming down from Canada.

South Carolina:
Heavy rains have fallen across the Palmetto State with a total of 5.75"/146 mm at Blythewood on Cedar Creek as of the morning of August 31.

North Carolina:
Starting a day before landfall, moisture from Ernesto was intercepted by a frontal boundary stalled across the state, which led to prodigious rains. The maximum amount as of the morning of August 31 was 5.30"/134.6 mm at a rain gauge two miles north-northwest of Henderson.

Source: Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia

Surface Observations
Wave heights approaching South Carolina/North Carolina will be on the rise later this afternoon and into tonight. Waves will be as high as 4-5m (10-15ft). People should exercise caution before getting into the water as there is also a risk for rip currents.

Sea surface temps in the area are above 80degrees, which likely fuel Ernesto until it reaches land.

Rainfall amounts will be as high as 5-10inces in some spots directly in the path of Ernesto (Not including the frontal boundary).

There is also a threat of tornados as with landfall tropical systems.

Buoys/Ships
None

Land-Based Stations at 9AM
NEW, NC (EWN)
Pressure:1001.5mbars
Winds: SW at 19knots

CLINTON, NC (CTZ)
Pressure:1005mabrs
Winds: NNW at 15knots

ROCKY, NC (RWI)
Pressure:996.4mabrs
Winds: NNW at 15knots

By Weather456.....9:32AST......
The folks in San diego WOULDN'T know how to deal with it - when we used to get heavy rain, people would freak out - tons of accidents on the freeways - lawn furniture damage...lol. The fires we had a few years back we not cool though - had people PRAYIN for rain at the point.
will the Heavy Rain in VA, Beach Make it to Richmond, or is Richmond Good, and out of the Heavy Rains?
LB at 16N 54W looks to sputter today. Yesterday at this time, the overnight convection ahd dissipated. There's still a little left. But the ULL above Hispaniola looks parked and may shear this when it gets into Caribbean. Otherwise, I think it could develop. Pressure dropped from 1012 yesterday to 1011 today (small, but in the right direction).
Posted By: K8eCane at 12:55 PM GMT on September 01, 2006.
wilmington here
no major damage that i can tell
we did lose power and our lines are underground pandora!


Sorry K8eCane! It didn't even flicker in Sunset Park!
..John to turn west away from the Land masses..John is not a Threat to Cali....
..sees N carolina still attached to Shelf of Continent..Sweeet!
SAN DIEGO EVACUATES IN PREPARATION FOR HURRICANE JOHN
AP Newswire 09-01-2006

Strong winds, high surf and tidal flooding has forced Governor Arnold Swartzenager to issue California's first hurricane evacuation notice. Citing possible catastrophic damage due to the fact most buildings are built to withstand earhtquakes but not equipped to handle high wind, Swartzenager has called a state of emergency and ordered the National Guard to make preperations for evacuating residents from the low lying areas. He stated, " when all is said and done I don't want to be rmembered as the next Nagin." Nagin being the Mayor of New Orleans, who has been criticized for his lack of initiative in the wake of Hurricane Katrina......

The above has been a service of Ricderr reporting and in no ways assimilates any truth
John seems to be organizing its surroundings today. Not a ton stronger, but nicely structured.

Any thoughts about how it will fair over/near Baja?

I see the GFDL recurving it toward San Diego, yet the 5-day cone heads out to sea. I haven't every really looked at behaviors of storms on that coast, but it seems worrisome to me.
Zap
..trival candy for the Masses..lol
Depending on how far north that moisture goes I might get some good rain. I live near a mountain range. Anytime that moisture comes from the south my city Whittier,CA gets a lot more rain then most other parts so So Cal.

Last time moisture came up from the south I remember that day Downtown LA got around 1.2 inches of rain not bad. Where I live got 3.9 inches of rain.

Then back last Junuary there was another storm that should have been huge but was a bust. Downtown LA got 0.75 inches of rain. We got 2.2 inches ^_^.
..John to turn west under the Ul winds..and its very,very..rare..for any organised significant Tropical system to traverse the Baja to California,,Cooler ssts and prevailing UL winds ..are just not in the cards for John..a rare scenario..Better to worry about Meteorite impact in San Diego..or the usual shake ,rattle & roll..
Patrap, I got my limit on Specks this am good size and yellow mouthed.
The "next Nagin" That's hilarious! I hope HE doesn't see that though, he will find out where you live and compare his progress to your town's efforts to overcome their last tragedy - of course there was only one 9/11 - and he's already played that card!
BRAND NEW - Ernesto GOES IR Animation from August 24, 2006 - September 1, 2006!

This new animation takes you from Ernesto's humble beginnings as a TD, his multiple Carribean landfalls, and onto FL, SC and NC!

Look at all the weather patterns that affected this very interesting and unique storm!


hi melwerle

The link I posted was the water vapour loop of the CATL showing the two ULLs. The first link posted was an error. Does that answer your question ?

sorry for the confusion
Cyclone - your entries always tickle me. They remind me of those feeders into the old newsreels they used to play before the movies - back in the old days EVEN before my time - but i've seen them on television.

Keep it up though - not trying to discourage you, just enjoy seeing you post them.
..sees the New Orleans bashing and suggest some uninformed ..click on my Blog to see.(!!..I agreewith Nagins point...NYork..was very helpful in Rescue in New Orleans & the Gulf coast region..along with crews from Cali..also..The point I c..and have been to Ground zero..is that the political inbickering ..is more a problem in NY.Its 5 yrs later and they dont Have a structure rising out of the Hole in the Ground..That..is a gross undermining ..of the souls lost there..to Terrorism..and not 1 brick layed in rebuilding.That is a crime in itself.
Depending on how far north that moisture goes I might get some good rain. I live near a mountain range. Anytime that moisture comes from the south my city Whittier,CA gets a lot more rain then most other parts so So Cal.

Last time moisture came up from the south I remember that day Downtown LA got around 1.2 inches of rain not bad. Where I live got 3.9 inches of rain.

Then back last Junuary there was another storm that should have been huge but was a bust. Downtown LA got 0.75 inches of rain. We got 2.2 inches ^_^.
Yo Cyclone! Cool animation Brian.
LB still trying to pull a Chris. Remain small, then develop even in a cloud of dust. But the ULL could shear it.
Sorry for that double post browser got all messed up.
Weather456s Tropical and Subtropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............Part Two...Continue Tropics/Subtropics and Hurricane John.........
Friday, September 1, 2006.......


A surface High is now station south of the Hudson Bay, in Canada.

An Upper Level Ridge is station over the Hudson Bay into Central Canada, while an Upper level trough, accompanied by an Upper Level Mid-Latitude Cyclone is moving out to sea over Nova Scotia. This low is connected to another Low East of Saint John, Quebec, by a surface trough.

The Upper Level High/Ridge that was centered over the Continental United States for some time now, no longer sits inland and is now centered east of Georgia in Atlantic Ocean. A broad Upper Level ridge extends into the Atlantic towards the vicinity of Bermuda.
Replacing the High is an Upper level polar trough, extending down from the Jet Stream over Canada, into the Midwest and down to the South-East United States. This trough will be responsible for steering Ernesto east and north. At the heart of the trough is an Upper Level Low spinning over Michigan. The trough has stretch further south into the Gulf of Mexico, brining some extremely dry air with it to the Louisiana/Texas/Mississippi Gulf Coast area.

The trough is a associated with a dying front moving SE, over North/South Carolina, Virginia and Georgia. The northern part of the Cold front is still cold in nature and it extends from East of North Carolina, northeastward to about a 300miles SE of Nova Scotia, Canada. There sits another mid-latitude low.

A surface High is now centered over the Central Texan Gulf Coast area.

Numerous strong scattered showers seen along Central Mexico, the Mexican Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Cuba and Cayman islands, and central America into northern Colombia.

Hurricane John continues north up the Western Mexican coastline, toward the Baja California peninsula. John is packing winds of 115mph, with a MCP of 960mbars.

The powerful winds of Hurricane John produced heavy surf and downed trees near Acapulco. The hurricane produced a 10 foot storm surge in Acapulco, which flooded coastal roads. In addition, John caused heavy rainfall along the western coast of Mexico. The rainfall resulted in mudslides in the Costa Chica region of Guerrero, leaving around 70 communities isolated.
There have been no reports of fatalities at this point. (Source: Wikipedia)

A Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern Baja Peninsula, meaning Hurricane conditions are expected within the area in the next 24hrs.

San Jose Del Cabo
Pressure :1008mbars.
Winds: NW at 10knots.
the system near 15N54W does not seem to have as potent a circulation as it did yesterday. It almost looks as if it is opening up and the low dissipating.

Can't quite figure this one out
Sorry Pa - not intending to "bash" New Orleans at all. But, what little we see of Nagin anymore in this neck of the woods does not shed a positive light on him - has nothing to do with New Orleans itself. I know some people in that rubble - or knew them - have mixed emotions about what they should do there - that is a graveyard - it needs that respect.
what does anyone think. it looks ernesto might re-emerge off the delmava at least it appears that way from the sat. loop. any opinion?
..Lives in Jefferson Parish..the Parish on the DRY side of the 17th St. Canal..and has a Parish presiden.not a Mayor..the storm did not Just smack New Orleans..but a Whole region..a lil more .responsability in posting is warranted..as many in our REGION..like myself .is dealing with a lot of stuff.LIke my Cousion who was lost to Katrina..in Bay St.Louis..a retired PHD in nursing..wasnt found till Sunday SEpt 4th..A lil more respect for a region..devastated by the Nations greatest Natural Disaster..is warranted.And no American,,regardless of there social status..should not have to Survive a CAtasrophe of nature..to die of thrist & exposure..4 -5 days after the Event........in any American city..and this iz all Im going to say about that....
968. MahFL
Tireless, I thought he was heading out to sea again too. Be interesting to watch.

Link

Any opinion on were this might be heading?
morning everybody! :)

Stormjunkie is probably still sleeping! LOL

left him about midnight last nite...... not sure exactly the quality of the footage he got, but let me tell you.... he tried! Made it home at 3am.... and off to work!

was quite an experience to have the center go right over us! i think we probably had gusts 40-50mph, and a "small" surge..... couple waves all the way to the dunes..... I started running the first time!LOL.... thankfully it was low tide! we waited until the winds switched directions, our only way to confirm the center passed, other than it was dead calm, barely a breaze..... as soon as we felt the winds switch, we high taled it out before the backside winds kicked in.... as we had a bridge to cross....

we then left, drove about 30 miles, and the road home, hwy 17, wich is the only maor route from wilmington to myrte beach, was closed, due to flooding.... i am quite sure they got at least 10inches of rain in that area.... had to "take the long road home!"

was quite the adventure, and SJ is a great guy! :)

Patrap, catch a few for me.
..Nagin in New York today...personally..I wish hed stay...Get a Job..and sell peanuts @ Yankees Stadium...later
hey all man its crazy here in va
..OK Pasc...Ill snatch ya Up a big Speck...
raining hard and man is it windy. not sustained any higher than 15-20 but the gusts are way up there 40-45 and man i am just waiting for these tree behind my house to go. they keep bending way down. hope they donlt fall on the neighbors home.

my roof is leaking as well. rain has been dcomming down the hardest the past 2 hrs but the real hard stuff stukk a few hrs away
I am a city offical here in new york city. there is some debate here how to look at the future track of this thing. there is debate over the models and its impact on some of our densely pop. shore fronts. Any opinion would help. thanks
Hey Lefty,
Here in Ocean View here where are you?
fredericksburg, south of dc by about an hr
good luck lefty.... ernesto is doing a pretty ggod job bring in in rain along the eastern seaboard.... and there will be some significant flooding in many areas......
yeah, figured it would be windy but not til later whent he cenetr got closer. i canlt imagine it get any worse wind wise and the heaviest of the rains are still on the way. gettin a pretty good show i must say.
Major street fooding here, hundreds and hundreds of accidents and stranded vehicles. Stages set up for music festival this weekend on VA beach Ocean Front have blown down.
Dr. Gray has lowered his forecast to 5 hurricanes for tis season.....

what the hell good is a forecast, if you keep changing it! LOL
Thel,

It's no different than the computer models -- just keep updating the forecast to match actual conditions until the forecast becomes a nowcast, and then claim victory!

Glad you got back safely from your escapade. I once chased down a tornado that turned out to be an F4 less than a mile away. Sometimes things can get too exciting a little too fast!
Zap

there is not such thing asa forecast they simpy can't or dont't have the balls for it .i have tried to tell folks that but some are willing to believe no matter what . very few here or abroad make forecast .when they do they stick with it .it is only a handful in the entire world that will make what is called a forecast.
it is a difficult thing to forecast cause there is much to consider but what i believe really causes folks with education not to forecast without change is they simply can't stand up to the critisizm lol . so they change and adjust .
they simply should have not made that foecast with current ocean apttersn anyway . . the likey hood of such as many as was first forecast was perposerous anyway given the weather apatterns in the atlantic . later this season say 21 sept threw nov 10 may be active enouph for a the current forecast lol .but oone thing is for sure the weather patterns will have to change . we know that the sst have risen above 0 and tis will effect that region in the pacific but to expect it to effect the over all pattern that has developed in the atlantic humm i just dont know about that . The atlantic has always had its own pattern regarless to the pacific and untill the atlantic changes its pattern i dont believ there will be much of consequince from it . atleast effecting the US mainland. so 5 sounds about right if that many . but given that they knew these patterns existed they should have adjusted for it in the first place .
there is one guy in the country that prediacted 6 storms with three major 3 or above in the beginning and i believe he is right or atleast closer than DR Grey first cast this year . of course if you noticed last year dr grey raised his cast lol so he is just reacting to the pattern rather than forecasting it .
dont bother with comments on type ooo cause i have a head ache and it doesnt matter to me as long as you get what i have tried to say lol ;
Dr grey dont analog he just makes a forecast based on the previous year . thinking like the global warmest .well the earth is warmeing so next will be worse lol but the consentrics of natures patterns are alittle more than just the way the global warmest say we have warm events and cool events 30 year patterns and warm episodes and cold episodes withen those and then you can count the averall trend toward one or the other . three cylces i have identified .that is just the ones i have observed my self . if you look at analog years you will see that it isnt every year that we have as many as last and ussually the years that have alot the following year is quite lol so do some investigating for yourself .you will find that these trends are there analoged in the past . sometie or another the cold trends will return and the globalist will hail like in the sixties its comming an ice age lol . funny thing the acean warms in the northern hem but the southern hem anartica cools while the morthern hem warms . but it all has to do with car and truck and think of this the test our atmosphere co2 readings on top of a volcano .does that make sence .
you all have a good day i have to lay back down my neck hasa bad disk and it given me a head ache and a fit lol chow