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Ernesto moves into the Florida Keys

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:08 PM GMT on August 29, 2006

The Hurricane Hunter reports from late this morning indicate that Ernesto's pressure remains steady at 1005 mb, and the maximum sustained surface winds steady at 45 mph. Ernesto's appearance on satellite imagery is much improved, with upper-level outflow being established to the north, and the size and depth of heavy thunderstorm activity increasing. Key West radar animations show an increase in organization and intensity of the spiral rain bands, and it won't be long before the Hurricane Hunters observe a falling pressure and rising winds. We are very lucky this storm does not have another day over water, or it would be near Category 2 hurricane status. Ernesto has only about 12 more hours over water, and should come ashore in the Everglades tonight with peak winds of 60 mph.

Marathon in the Keys had a heavy squall go through at 11:09am EDT, and reported a wind gust of 27 mph. Winds at the offshore buoy on Sombrero Key near Marathon were sustained at 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph at 11am this morning. Winds will continue to rise in the Keys this afternoon, and a 1-3 foot storm surge can be expected.

The latest forecast models are still in excellent agreement, calling for a landfall in the Everglades tonight, a long 2-day passage up the length of Florida, followed by a re-emergence into the Atlantic and possible re-intensification to a Category 1 hurricane before a second landfall in the Carolinas. Ernesto should then slowly push inland over the mid-Atlantic states, and may create inland flooding problems due to its slow movement northwards.


Figure 1. A tropical wave to watch, and one to ignore--visible satellite image from 9:45am EDT over the Atlantic.

New tropical wave to watch
A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, near 9N 36W. This tropical wave is showing some rotation, and had winds up to 60 mph in some of the heavier thunderstorms, according to a 4:15 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite. The GFS model does develop this system into a tropical storm by Friday, and predicts it will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands early next week. This wave is very similar in position and appearance to the wave that spawned Ernesto. Wind shear is about 10-15 knots over the wave, which is low enough to allow some slow development. Sea Surface Temperatures are 84-86F (29-30 C), which is very favorable for development. However, the intensity of the heavy thunderstorm activity has declined markedly this morning, and the wave is not a threat to develop until Thursday at the earliest. A large spiral of low clouds to the wave's north-northwest is associated with another tropical wave. This wave we can ignore, since it is embedded in a large area of African dust that should inhibit development. The computer models are very bullish in developing waves coming off the coast of Africa in the next two weeks, and I expect we'll have at least two new named storms by the time the peak of hurricane season arrives, September 10.

I'll be back with an update by 4:30 pm EDT today, and include some thoughts on the anniversary of Katrina.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Can someone help me out here? If Ernesto comes in around the keys or just east of there and travels up florida, does it have the power as a TS to survive the trip and hit as a Cat 1 in the Carolina's?? What would cause it to keep it's power over so much land?
Ernesto not much down here in Key West - Yawn. . .
ok pressure now down by 2 1006

landfall in maimi might be cat 1 at landfall we still have over 9 hours to its in the warm water now the upper low is moving out in 1 hour . more storms aound the center forming .
ill be looking for a speacial up date from nhc before 5 pm . what u think everyone

Freshwaterconch at 7:19 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
Ernesto not much down here in Key West - Yawn. . .



TROLL
As the storm pulls north, convection is now building on the southern quadrants. The SE 'blob' appears to be getting stranded behind Cuba (which helped mislead me earlier) while the NE blob has now become part of the organized feeder bands.

Not much time left, but it seems to be steadily strengthening. It will be interesting to see what the late night and early morning hours bring.

Motion seems to be a slow NW movement.

Zap
Ok, i'm a what if type of guy. SO, that being said, i want to know what would happen IF this thing didn't turn north when planned, and decided to go over the Keys and then turn north. What would that do. Also, what would happen if it Kept going and stayed over the Everglades for a while. Katrina held on to 70mph winds over the Everglades and barely weakened over Florida as a whole. Someone answer these 2 What If's please. Thanks.
Where's the phrase makers today?
The two most popular phrases on this board are
"You heard it here first" and "Written in stone"
Can anyone update me on the trough coming down and the high in the atl.
512. KRL
First Ernesto rain bands hitting Palm Beach County now at 3:30PM EDT. Winds are still mild.

On the radar loop I am definitely seeing this guy moving more west that north...
some on plz post a pic on ernesto plz
illumine
Footprints,

If Ernesto traverses the length of Florida after coming ashore as a TS, I doubt it could be anything more than a rain event in the Carolinas. I am an amateur, so don't take my word as Gospel.
JP,
I think the biggest thing right now is how long it stays over water, the longer it stays over water the more it stregthens,


By the way Disney has done zero prep except where I work there at the Sports Complex.
this is so gonna head up the west coast
It's not moving west, it's NW to NNW.
In Texas, the front associated with the shortwave trough has slowed down considerably. I don't know if it will even make Houston. It seems this would affect the southern reach anticipated for the trough to pick up any tropical sysytem, especially one below 25 lat
An addendum to my earlier post: I wouldn't totally ignore Dr. M's 'ignore' wave either. It is almost dead but has just a little convection today. Also, if the ULL doesn't shred it, then the ULH directing Ernesto right now may also be able to spin the little wave back into existence when it (ULH) gets further east and little ignore wave goes west... Just my thought... And the place to watch for TD6 is not at 36W (now about 38W) IMO, but closer to 32W now.

** Actually, closer to about 33W 8N...** And there's the ignore wave. Either of these could develop IMO...
Can someone show me it going north
latest radar out of keywest

and I am not a troll
Nope...Keys...Everglades...not the Gulf Coast...not this time...
Ernesto now down to 1005 mb
This storm may surprise a few people in terms of strength before coming ashore
Metalica i think you banged your head one to many times no way this hits the west coast
Looks like it was heading a little more North but the last few radar frames are back to the WNW..I still say there is a real good chance this makes it into the Gulf before it turns due North..I also think this will be a hurricane by 11:00PM tonight..The radar and Sat are looking better by them min..I expect a big pressure drop real soon..
NY NJ CT PA Watch Ernesto! OK Once agian the GFS is showing Ernesto explode over PA NJ NY 1008 mb 50 kts and alot of rain.

look at the attached model run hereNew GFS run

www.eastcoastwx.net
check out our tropical tracker, its very useful
This could take the path of Rita
I want to know where vxweather is and his "pinpoint" 67 mile swath on the central gulf coast.

He's the one that needs to taste a little crow...
B. 24 deg 03 min N
080 deg 04 min W
Thank you Mr. Bond
Posted By: SaymoBEEL at 2:34 PM CDT on August 29, 2006.
Footprints,

If Ernesto traverses the length of Florida after coming ashore as a TS, I doubt it could be anything more than a rain event in the Carolinas. I am an amateur, so don't take my word as Gospel.


Thank you for answering me. This storm doesn't affect me, I am just trying to learn. Thanks again!
Hey rookie becareful what you wish for you might get it
I'd say the BAMM is the most accurate location of where it will end up going. Perhaps a little south. I don't see it turning north permanently. And the eye seems to redeveloping rapidly again.
this is similiar to katrina before it landed in miami/dade county last year....it was a tropical storm that was continuing to strengthen. It made cat 1 right at landfall.....i do not remember as much rain that is predicted with this storm though.....
Posted By: rookie1 at 7:37 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
This storms name should be changed to Ernestine. It is a big time wimp out. I'm sitting here in Myrtle Beach and we're looking forward to some local showers as the tomato harvest is still in full swing. CAN SOMEONE SEND A REAL HURRICANE?


Thats what people sayed about Katrina when
it hit florida LOL
seedofchucky..uh, I mean sonofwilma..I still am convinced part or all the storm will end up in the Gulf, and will definitely stengthen.
Brandonr007 I to think that it is just not moving north as fast as they think more time in the worm water
aww screw it lol
moved about .1 north .3 west since 2 pm based off latest recon
new pressure 1005 its falling now center is looking better
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=byx&loop=yes

Excellent radar out of Key West. Make sure the "Auto Update" is turn "On"...let it run and check back every 30 mins or so. I can see where some folks are getting a westerly jog idea...and where some are seeing north. Ernesto has wobbled like an old drunk all morning...and only Ernesto knows...
You probably haven't experienced a Winter blizzard so there! LOL!
OK. this is for all of you guys who think its moving WNW or W. Maybe you don't even know what each one is.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Vortex Data Message
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
URNT12 KNHC 291929
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/19:17:10Z
B. 24 deg 03 min N
080 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 246 deg 022 nm
F. 312 deg 022 kt
G. 246 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 396 m
J. 24 C/ 395 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF308 1605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 49 KT NE QUAD 16:27:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
;


eyes may be failing me but definite western movement currently


Link

Also would like to pose the question, is the heavy band 65 milse south of key largo the eyewall trying to form? we have seen some rather large eyes before.
JP,
Tom Terry said the center could redevelop anywhere...thats a big problem if it keeps moving around.
Though S FL is land it is low & flat. Ernesto has good width where it can draw from the ocean waters of Fl. In the past with this scenario, if a storm hits at near hurricane strength (he needs to get stacked a little better before landfall), good chance of slight strengthing as it makes it's way over south FL.

Eastcoast - that is a 384 hour model, 16 days from now, not Ernesto.

Pro - you troll you
Weather456’s Tropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............
Tuesday, August 29, 2006..........


An Upper Level trough is moving west over Northern Canada bringing both wet moisture to the south of it and snow to the north of it.

An upper level high continues to be station over the continental United Sates near the Georgia/South Carolina Border, with a broad Upper Level Ridge at its eastern periphery, along the SE United states and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Behind the Upper level high is an Upper Level trough coming down over the Mid West States of the US. The trough is attached to an ULL near Illinois, and extends down to the Texas Panhandle. This trough was responsible for some severe weather over the Western United States last week.

A surface High is centered over the South Gulf Coast States.

The Upper level low that was racing with Ernesto south of Cuba, late last week has moved north west from the Yucatan Peninsula and racing towards Texas. The Low is enhancing moisture over regions of the Gulf Of Mexico and will do the same when it reaches Texas.

Tropical Storm Ernesto is churning through the Florida Straits packing winds of 45mph and MCP of 1008mbars. Ernesto is expected to strengthen into a Severe Tropical Storm and move NNW into Southern Florida, then further inland north of the peninsula.

Rains of 30mm/day is expected over the Bahamas Islands and Southern Florida.

Surface Observations
Sea Surface Temperatures are above 80-85 degrees in the area.

Waves of 25+ feet are expected to spread across the southern coastline of Florida and the nearest Bahaman Islands.

Buoys/Ships
None Available

Land-Based Stations at 2:53PMAST
MARATHON, FL (MTH)
Pressure:1010.5mbars
Winds: ESE at 9m/s

KEY, FL (EYW)
Pressure:1011mbars
Winds: N at 6m/s

A Central Atlantic Upper Level Low attached to a well define Upper Level trough in the North Atlantic, has absorbed Debby and moved her into the extreme North Atlantic.

To the North of that trough is a powerful extra-tropical cyclone, moving NE in the extreme North Atlantic. Quiksat revealed a well define circulation and winds up to 50knots, and with a good satellite of the North Atlantic can be seen spinning northward.
Ahead of the wave is a cold front moving east extending all the way south to 30N.

There are two interesting waves in the Central Atlantic.

The first one at along 42W, with a 1012mbars closed low at 17.5N. The wave is moving WSW and is void of all convection because its embedded in an area of very dry air.

The other wave is along 31N, 10N moving west along the ITCZ, with numerous showers along the axis. The wave passed a buoy earlier and measured a pressure of 1016mbars.
The wave already has a mid-low level closed circulation but limited winds, seen on Quiksat Winds Imagery. Even though the wave is moving into an area of very dry air, it will be monitored for development, as it progresses west.

An Upper level High is centered West of Morocco.

By Weather456.….15:36UTC………
Franck, seedofchucky? What'd I do to you? Oh, you're bashing me because I made mention of he who sets things in stone. Part of it is already in the Gulf, Franck. Let me be be frank with you, this is a fire drill, although a wet one. I'm sure that there are worse times coming. Don't worry, be happy. We're all in this together.
sorry wrong link
Posted By: Melagoo at 7:41 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
You probably haven't experienced a Winter blizzard so there! LOL!


Does the Superstorm of 1993 count? I was in VA for that one. What a mess!
JP,
Why no T-storms in Central Florida? Is this because of subsidance sinking air around Ernesto?
Sporteguy,
I thought the center would reform further south, but that was while it was a muddled mess, before it clearly wrapped the current center. Now it is well organized, and without an external cause (like land interaction, shear, or something) there is no reason for the center to reform elsewhere.

It is organizing and strengthening with the current center, and at this point I don't see why it won't hold with that for quite some time.
Zap
so will it be okay to go to destin, fl thursday night? are all the people from south florida evaucating to the panhandle? is there anyone out there in destin?
pip u are wrong nw is exactly 45 degrees more than west or 45 less than due north what u have down as nw is really nnw
24 ° 03 ' N 080 ° 04 ' W = 24.05N 80.07W, it's the center position
1005 huh...that's still high, but Ernesto may ramp up pretty fierce when the Sun goes down.
ok whats the difference. the NHC says NNW anyways.
hookedontropics clearly shows that it is headed WNW. Wobble or no wobble this storm is not heading NW. The floater also clearly shows it as WNW. You can also see the eye developing just north of cuba.
Hi Carmen72,

Destin's quiet as a mouse right now. No sign of evacuees. Rode down the beach between Destin and Sandestin at lunch and the water's gorgeous...and it's almost without a ripple...as smooth as I've seen it in years.

So, come on down!
Sorry for those that could not view the Ernesto NY PA CT NJ GFS run. I made it public for everyone now.

GFS public Run


www.eastcoastwx.net
I got it!! It's moving west-north???
JP last post back to work i go ithink its safe to say this is nt getting fully into the gulf and hooking into tampa. we might get some rain but thats it
456, looks like you're watching similar areas with me. But I think the rotation is a bit more west of the 31W area (and about 8N). Interetsing to see the flare-up in the dry-air embedded 'ignore' wave! Maybe it'll kick up... The ITCZ looks like an Ernesto part 2 spawning ground to me... Wonder what line it would take if something forms this far east...
580. WSI
"Hey WSI do u think it is going to be a big flooding thing In Our State (NC)"

Depending on the track, yes in my unofficial opinion. Especially in the eastern areas. Crabtree Valley Mall in Raleigh floods in systems such as this (and did with a previous tropical system this year). The Piedmont of NC will probably have some urban flooding too in the typical places, depending on how fast the rain comes down.

Flash Flood Guidance shows how much rain given areas can take in a time frame.

A lot of NC can expect heavy rain amounts.

Actually, that is 30 degrees west of due north, 15 degrees off north by west.
pipsneyy,
wonderful illustration. I hope that is visual enough for the directionally challenged out there
...caniac...surely you're kidding...and it ain't funny
ck out the WU current radar - seems something pushing southward
is that another eye forming????
I agree it is hard to establish diction for a short radar loop. But you can establish the coc, right?

If this is the coc halfway between Marathon and Cuba, and if the course is NW, does this not put Ernesto in the GOM?

Check my premises.
movment nw at 13 taking nap be backa ropund 5pm update
SNN 6 - Sarasota says it will be just EAST of NAPLES at 8AM tommorow with 60 MPH winds... David Karns
Looks like...
The eye of Godzilla!
"This storms name should be changed to Ernestine. It is a big time wimp out. I'm sitting here in Myrtle Beach and we're looking forward to some local showers as the tomato harvest is still in full swing. CAN SOMEONE SEND A REAL HURRICANE?"


be careful what you ask for..... you just may get it...... in spades...... in two weeks!!!

not too smart to "fool with mother nature!"
thanks destinrick...you made my day
Hurricaniac-how can u possibly thnk worse than katrina or andrew-i was in so florida for andrew this is not a cat 2,3,4, or 5 hurricane- i do not understand how u could thnk that
Link

I just wanted everyone to see this. look at the pressure and the wind gusts.... this thing is still a few hours away from this location! the wind itself isn't very strong yet, but check back at this link in a few hours and see the changes

They say ernie not vertical, clouds could be moving ( jogging west at upper levels) and rain might moving northwest. There is no true eye which would be a true center of circullation. Have you ever seen the clouds before a rain, the rain aint in the front edge of every cloud.
sonofwilma...I was just funnin' witcha. Sorry,
actually I was reminded because I sat through that movie the other night. Two hours of life wasted.
598. mm17
There's no doubt the Key West radar is showing the center moving pretty much due west for the last 45 minutes or so. But I got to tell you, I'm on Sugarloaf Key, 17 miles ENE of Key West and this is the lamest excuse for a tropical storm I've seen in 30 years here. We have worse weather in run of the mill summer afternoon storms. Haven't seen a wind gust over 18mph yet and maybe we've had a half inch of rain.
Posted By: Watchingforstorms at 7:49 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
hookedontropics clearly shows that it is headed WNW. Wobble or no wobble this storm is not heading NW. The floater also clearly shows it as WNW. You can also see the eye developing just north of cuba.


There is no eye. This is NOT A HURRICANE.
jupiter it is a nice directional illustration.....if he actually got the angles right!! what he is showing as nw is actually closer to nnw the real nw direction would actually take it out into gulf (where i tihnk its headed prob landfall around naples/ ft myers)
But truly, a lot of people have said others were 'wishcasting' the storm into the Gulf. I haven't seen it that way.
That is an eye!!! You heard it first people.. Written in stone.

LOL
As I stated earlier NW Or WNW or N or W, how long it stays over water is the key until it gets to land expect it to get bettter organized. I think we are all in agreement its stregthening though?!
It will be interesting to see if the pressure drops again on the 5pm advisory....
That's the biggest pinhole eye I've ever seen!!!
What do you guys do when theres a real hurricane? Andrew, Katrina, Rita, etc.

We are very lucky this storm stayed over Cuba and is headed to Florida otherwise I think it would have been a monster. Look at what it fought through in the past week or so. If it would have ever gotten in the gulf it would have been bad news for someone.
Conditions here in Port St. Lucie
Link

Gusts are up to 12 MPH now - house is sealed, and hoping this thing continues on a westerly path.
I am convinced it is not strengthening and I cannot understand why? On the Infared the "red" tops have not increased in the last six hours and are ahead of the eye. We should have by now "red" tops in more than one quadrant and this is simply not the case.
WARNING! When/if TS E. hits the moisture and even hotter water of the Everglades it will get kicked up to cat 1.
If this storm had been moving as far west as all of the wishcasters in here thought it was it would already be in the gulf. Secondly the bamm is a joke and I just read about it in here for the second or third time today.
so - is the consensus here that we have nothing but a rain storm headed our way - I see a stronger TS hugging the coast up to around sarasota - even with 60 mph we could take a long beating.......
There is no eye. This is NOT A HURRICANE.

Look again.
let's not forget ivan & dennis,wilma etc
I don't see this strenghtening much if at all...seems like this storm is out running itself heading to land.
Levelheaded,

The intensity of convection in a tropical system of this type doesnt mean the storm is not intensifying or getting better organized.
Weather channel pushed forecast track West not much east coast left on path.
Sorry and oh yeah what about, Hugo, Fran, Bertha, Isabelle, etc.

I guess you can tell I grew up in NC. I remember all those storms pounding us.
Question:
Is the internal structure of Ernesto rebuilding, like building a house from the ground up? Since Cuba, Haiti weakened Ernesto is it trying to rebuild its inner structure first as opposed to developing its rain bands? As a heart is the most important part of human is the center its focal point in healing?
even if it does go more west, that puts ft myers, naples, tampa, and all up the coast in the clea pretty much. it means they will just get the ragged center. they will NOT get the bad wind and rain that the east coast will get since they are on the right side. so all the wishcasters out there should change your mind and say wait we want this storm headed for texas!!! then we will be on the right side!!!!!!!!
TWC never has a correct cone anyway.
Walrus,

I have 4 words for you, "goo goo ga joob"
I think Ernesto is most certainly strengthening, a ragged low-level eye is visible on Key West radar.
I did the right side of Ivan for over 12 hours. DOZENS of tornadoes, drenching rains and winds in a direction that most of natures creations (trees) are not used to. It is relentless and violent. I think Pipsneyy gives good advice - don't wish for the east side.
I have 4 words for you, "goo goo ga joob"



Make up your mind now. Gulf said goo goo cachoo
its less than 12 hrs fomr landfall and i dont think NWS still knows where its gonna make landfall or what its intensity will be
Posted By: Pipsneyy at 8:06 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
TWC never has a correct cone anyway.



Has anyone had a correct cone for this storm?

No..........
I am not an idiot... I know we do not have a hurricane yet... just an observation from a non believer in the models. LIGHTEN UP... LIGHT one up!
Last 24 hours movement -- 3.6 N, 4.0 W. Seems a little W of NW. Discuss amongst yourselves. Here's a topic: If no changes occur in the patterns which would cause a curvature within the next 24 hours, that puts it at 27.5 and 83.7. Where's that?
You look at the center of every substantial system and there is large areas of deep convection. Just look at Hurricane John in the Eastern Pacific. Before dismissing me at of hand give me an example of a hurricane without deep convection.
It will still make landfall in Fort Walton Beach on Friday. Perhaps even further West. I think the models have a flaw that did not enable them to track Katrina and it is showing itself again in this instance in forcasting a further Eastward track than is going to happen. I also think that when we get to Jupitar that we will find intelligent life.
Well what do you say? After all, You ARE the Walrus. :)
Posted By: saddlegait at 8:08 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
I did the right side of Ivan for over 12 hours. DOZENS of tornadoes, drenching rains and winds in a direction that most of natures creations (trees) are not used to. It is relentless and violent. I think Pipsneyy gives good advice - don't wish for the east side.


Good point...fortunately, Ernie is no Ivan...
If you look at the Miami radar, it does have an eye like feature NW of Marathon.

Link
fran1983,

I remember Bertha and Fran verrry well...was in N.C. at the time and both came right down main street of the town where I lived. Not sure what was worse...the winds and damage they left, or the flooding after Fran....about a third of the town flooded...we even has caskets floating in the cemetary...now THAT was creepy!
UNGAWA ALL...
" Posted By: Melagoo at 7:10 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
It is almost embarassing that the media have blown this TS Ernesto into such an event. It would be like have our news crews up here in Canada filming a non-severe thunderstorm as it approaches the Great lakes region."

Maybe so, but anyone who's been down here for any lenght of time knows to keep an eye on any tropical system coming up.
There is definitely a "Front" moving from southwest Mississippi through Alabama and on north. That front is moving to the southeast which would conflict with Ernesto at some point and hold him to the east of it? Is the front stronger than the powers that drive Ernesto?
hookedontropics, that is the most intelligent thing i have heard so far..the light one up part that is SMOKE EM IF YA GOT EM
HCW: GOM? NFW!
649. KRL
Palm Beach County update at 4:15PM EDT. Nothing happening now. Started to drizzle then stopped. Not even windy now.

So far so good.
JP,
What will the diurnal maximum effect do to this storm if its on water then?
fran1983,

I remember Bertha and Fran verrry well...was in N.C. at the time and both came right down main street of the town where I lived. Not sure what was worse...the winds and damage they left, or the flooding after Fran....about a third of the town flooded...we even has caskets floating in the cemetary...now THAT was creepy!


I have some incredible pictues of the flooding. I think all the rain just made the effects of the wind worse. A lot of trees fell b/c the ground was super saturated. I grew up just east of I-95 so I have had my dose of hurricanes. Where were you located? You ever heard of Murfreesboro, NC?
The TWC just said Ernesto is heading for the Keys. Hmmmm... My prediction is starting to look good. Although I don't want this storm to hit anywhere. I wish it would just spin itself out, but that's not going to happen. My lastest prediction or guess... I still say it follows Florida's Gulf coast about 5 nm inland before it turns NE around the mouth of Tampa Bay. Winds here in Hillsbrough County around 40 MPH sustained with gusts to 60. JP??? what do you think? OH, BTW TWC went too hollywood what ever happened to raw weather reporting. I guess thats why we have the internet.
653. Chigz
Change of subject!
Anyone one see a cyclonic turning along 30W-12N in the central atlantic??
pip how do u get your logic? IF it moves more to the west (hence closer to ft myers tampa naples) how od u say they are BETTER off? it makes no sence. if the center brushes the gulf then ft myers and naples will be in front right quad of storm (the stronger side)
radar shows that Ernie is moving slightly west of NW...COC is tightening up some but will only stregthen some. COC will pass somewhere between Marathon and Key West. Check it out on radar!

http://pmc.myweather.net/ppm/Main.asp?a=1468
Gulf:
I agree. I noted earlier that the "front" in Texas has stalled for now, and if the associated shortwave doesn't get there, there is no lifting/curving device.
I also think Cuba has been hampering Big E becaise it has blocked the moisture train from the south -- that is now lessening.
I think it is going much further along the Gulf coast than the tip of Florida or the glades.
Pensacola to Appalachicola.
Anyone see the outflow North and South is starting to improve I wonder now since his inner features and now outer features are better hes going to start churning up more energy?
fran 1983,

check your wunderground mail
there is no way this storm is going west, if anything itll go east so u wishcasting people who all want a stronger storm just pipe down!
665. KRL
You can really see its forward path trend with this water vapor loop.

Water Vapor Loop Link
666. WSI
"Can someone please explain to me in plain english why Ernesto won't continue NW or WNW into the Gulf? I know there is a reason but I am not sure of what it is."

It will be moving around an area of high pressure, then get picked up by an approaching trough.
: jphurricane2006 hello how you doing can you give me a update on what going on dos are TS have a eye and where is this going in the gulf it looks like it
btw i'm still looking for that eye of the non-hurricane...
wife just stated that I've been spending way to much time with "the boys on the blog" Please pass the Head On!
Posted By: Chigz at 8:16 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
Change of subject!
Anyone one see a cyclonic turning along 30W-12N in the central atlantic??


Sure do.
This thing is going to get in the Gulf.. Whether it hugs the west coast or not, is the question.
Boynton,

Check this out...
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=byx&loop=yes

Just South of Largo...closest thing to an eye you'll see right now...just east of Marathon
So, if people who think it is going west are wishcasters, is someone who thinks its going east the Anti-Wishcaster?
O.K. I'm looking for a new system. Looks like Enesto is going to stay a T.S. HOWEVER...Take a look at the latest visible shot off Africa. There is clearly a depression forming just east of the blob that Dr. Masters pointed out this a.m. Look directly north of the NOAA symbol right off the edge of the sat pix. make sure you look at it in motion. www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/satpix/Catl_vis_loop.php

I think this will be our next system to drool, argue, whine, place bets, point fingers, make snide remarks, play drinking games, stare at the computer for hours, wish it this direction, wish it that direction, claim it will go there, claim it will go here, pretend we're all meteorologist w/ a minor in technology, get dilusional, and have a great time doing all that...

Ain't this blog great???
Does anyone have a link to the shape or trends of the high in th near western Atlantic?
NO GULF-----no es bueno----la florida
I wonder what is going to happen when this thing approaches the gulf... What do the conditions favor???
There is a difference between thinking its going east or west and saying that the NHC is wrong.
the only gulf this thing is gonna hit is the gulf stream
1) I thought the ULL in the western GOM was to be moving West. It appears to be moving NNW. This is not allowing the trough to move to the southeast as predicted. Thus allowing Ernesto to not make the turn to the North as forcasted.

2) I have notice a spin in the visible in the Central Atlantic. Any thoughts on that? GFS model forcasts a developing storm by Friday, per Dr. Masters.

3) What is the burst of clouds in the Bay of Camp Peachy???
I'll never be able to look at Ernie in the same way again! And, he was such a sweet muppet!
Check the buoys in the Keys - you can definitely see where the wind is from the north and where it's from the east - tells you exactly where the COC is going... Pressures falling rapidly.
Link
Tampa Steve is on point. LOL. Awesome.
Dang!! ists going south back where it came from!
Posted By: Melagoo at 7:41 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
You probably haven't experienced a Winter blizzard so there! LOL!


Oh yeah? Last January I went to Dairy Queen and ordered one.
i can see this going in to the gulf by toniht and boom in to a cat 2
Look out there at 10 and 30!!!
looks like the next one!
Looks like Ernesto is not going to be much of an event. Guess I was wrong (eyes three crow steaks with mouth watering). Since today is Katrina's anniversary I decided to go back and read Jeff's blogs from the time it left Florida to dissapation. Pretty emotional stuff, and a reminder of why I love this site. (lifts 64oz mug of crow juice) To New Orleans, may her recovery be swift and prosperous.
Ernesto looks kinda wispy and weak. A bit like a ghost, semitransparent... Onto the next big thing: TD6... Where will it be? Will it be Dr M's 36W wave (now slightly west of there)? Will it be Dr M's 'ignore' wave? Will it be 456's 31W 8N wave? Will it be in between 456 and Dr M's wave (my personal favorite, along with 'ignore')? Any votes people??
jupiter nws has been wrong on a lot of occassions one that really concerned me at the time was charlie nws ,even only hrs from landfall, predicted a cat 2 storm to hit tampa. instead we got a cat 4 storm over 100 to the south so i myself are a little distrustful of nws forcasts i look at radar and wv and ir and make my own decisions
Posted By: CaneCountry at 8:27 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
I wonder what is going to happen when this thing approaches the gulf... What do the conditions favor???


Development.
just watch the loop and turn on the trop forecast points. its exactly where its forecasted to be right now.
a little off topic...

but are there any plans to retire the name katrina?

i checked the list and saw dennis was put to bed in 2005, but not katrina...

anyone know?
i don't consider people who are questioning a west coast landfall "wishcasters" - i live on the west coast and would definately prefer it to stay on the east....I would say we are being careful....I still think that the system hugging the west coast is a possibility but I'm not saying the NHC is wrong....
i thougt id stir it up gulf :) defend me like a true scot! ps: KS here here well said
Posted By: heatmieser at 8:32 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
a little off topic...

but are there any plans to retire the name katrina?

i checked the list and saw dennis was put to bed in 2005, but not katrina...

anyone know?


There will never be another storm named Katrina.
Ugh, looks like the COC is just north of Cuba in this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
And unless the turn north doesn't happen soon, it's gonna get some GOM goodness before it finally does.

the new center that formed about 2 hours ago is now back to the west on the correct track.
txwxnut- prophetic words you speak... I'm sure the rancor will be fun to watch after little Ernesto! The real question is are the coming storms gonna be fish flingers?... You forgot to mention the 'ignore' system too:)
"Hurricane" Ernesto RIP


NEXT
not java enabled at work...wasnt looking anyway...since tropical storms of 45 mph do not form eyes ! lol.. their letting us go early today ! last year they kept us till Wilma was on top of us !

late
can someone link me to some atlantic imagery (pref loops) im on a different comp and dont have the bookmarks handy.. thanks
Posted By: heatmieser at 3:32 PM CDT on August 29, 2006.
a little off topic...

but are there any plans to retire the name katrina?

i checked the list and saw dennis was put to bed in 2005, but not katrina...

anyone know?


Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma were retired this spring.
Check out the link for the key west doppler at the top of the blog. This thing is moving due west right now. Anyone who thinks this is making landfall in the south or east part of Florida is in pure denial.
Will the Hurricane Hunters fly over the keys?

Is there a webcam of US 1 on the Keys?
I get tired of people saying Charley was "misforecast" - it was well within the cone!
Ernesto is having bad dry air indigestion right now. His e side is quite weak. Did someone call Dr. Shearbay?

Dr. Shearbay.
Dr. Shearbay.
Emergency, emergency, come right away!

Ernesto is acting like a weak Ophelia.
People keep saying that Ernie is not going into the GOM... Some of Ernie is ALREADY there... LOL
Here's a way to see the directions in a clear way. On your screen, hold a pencil to the screen with the angle following the flow of a lop. Right now, using the Miami radar, to me, it's pointing in a direction of WNW. Try it, it's quite easy to use.
The NHC isn't always right. That's why they have the conehead uncertainty. Today that cone hasn't shrunk width wise just shifted a little to the west. So we need some more guesses people and then I'll put them all in my computer and come up with one prediction. I still stand by my guess. Up the west coast, see previous post. It's not something I pulled out of a hat either. I've been studying all kinds of products all day long. Wanted to be a weatherman when I was a little kid, but got into computers instead. BTW i'm in N Tampa.
Posted By: heatmieser at 8:32 PM GMT on August 29, 2006.
a little off topic...

but are there any plans to retire the name katrina?

i checked the list and saw dennis was put to bed in 2005, but not katrina...

anyone know?


Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, and Wilma were all retired...first time in history that 5 names were retired in the same year.
Pencil thing isn't accurate the earth curves, your screen is flat.
naples yes we were in the 'cone' but when landfall is only 3 hrs away and the nws still said it was gonna hit tampa what were ppl in ft myers/ pt charlotts supposed to think. it makes a big differnce where they fall due to storm surge possiblities for example if charlie had hit in NAPLES then damage in ft myers wouldve been less than if it hit north of ftmyers. so the track does make a huge differnce!
Oreodog it would put you just west of Tampa / St. Pete
September should be a wild ride!
COC is about 12mi NE of Elbow Cay. The "voids" in the Key West radar are just that - not eyes or COC's.

I'll put the storm "ashore" at Long Key at 9:30 PM EDT - max sustained winds of 46Kts at the Long Key NOAA bouy (Link)

He'll cross Fla. Bay a little weaker and come ashore between Chokoloskee and Marco at 4:30AM and will stagger weakly over my house east of Estero at 7:15 AM.

Ernesto will be a fresh blow for S. Fla. - nothing more. I plan to go to work tomorrow.
Let's face it...this storm was a big bust for Florida...The times have changed..Today, the NHC would rather save it's butt than been be criticized for under-forecasting. Millions of dlooars were made by businesses, schools closed, businesses closed for a 45 MPH Tropical Storm. The media as usual created a frenzy...This all has to stop...Max Mayfield was not the right guy for the job..glad he's going. The NHC Director has to be a Public person in that position like the Robert Simpsons, Neil Franks and Bob Sheets...Max was not, I know, I worked with him..He's a stiff!

applause GulfScotsman
Thanks Gulfscotsman!