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Ernesto is on the way

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:42 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

Tropical Depression Five is looking much more organized this morning, and will likely be named Ernesto with the NHC 11am EDT advisory. Satellite intensity estimates from NOAA using a the standard "Dvorak technique" are the same for Debby and TD 5 this morning. Since Debby has a name, Ernesto should getting his name, as well. The visible satellite images from this morning show a large and expanding area of intense thunderstorms, some solid spiral bands forming, and the beginnings of some decent upper-level outflow. A QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:40am EDT showed winds of up to 50 mph near the center, and I imagine this will be the maximum sustained wind speeds for the 11am advisory.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 5.

Wind shear
As usual, the major question is, "what is wind shear doing, and what is the wind shear forecast?" My top hurricane bookmark is the real-time wind shear analysis done by the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group. This image, updated every 3 hours from data taken by the GOES-East satellite, shows yellow contour lines of what the shear is, in knots. Pink arrows show what direction the shear is coming from. The shear is the difference between the winds at high altitude (200 mb) and low altitude (850 mb). Hurricanes like wind shear close to zero, but can tolerate shear up to 20 knots and still slowly intensify. As we can see from the winds shear plot from this morning at 9Z (5am EDT) (Figure 2), Tropical Storm Five was under about 10 knots of shear, from the west. This is low enough to allow some intensification, and that is what we are seeing this morning. However, Tropical Storm Debby was under about 20 knots of shear, and has not been able to intensify this morning.


Figure 2. Wind shear estimate at 9Z (5am EDT) Fri Aug 25 2006. Image credit: University of Wisconsin's CIMSS group.

To the west of TD 5 we see a large area of very high shear of up to 50 knots, south of Jamaica. This area of high shear is associated with a strong upper level trough of low pressure that has been a common feature over the Caribbean this season. The trough is moving westward, away from TD 5, but TD 5 is racing fast enough westward that it may catch up to this high shear area and get torn apart on Sunday. The 8pm UKMET and 2am GFS models both have TD 5 dissipating by Sunday, and this is reasonable forecast. However, the trough is forecast to split apart on Monday and leave a region of low shear very favorable for intensification of TD 5 in the western Caribbean. If the storm does manage to survive into Monday, we could end up with a dangerous hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The latest runs of the GFDL and Canadian models prefer this solution, bringing the storm across Cuba and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. This is also a reasonable forecast. If you have travel plans to Jamaica, Cuba, or Cancun in the coming days, I would wait as long as possible to change them until we see if TD 5 will survive.

Debby
Tropical Storm Debby remains a minimal tropical storm today, with 20 knots of vertical wind shear putting a damper on her intensification. She could slowly intensify in response to some warmer waters along her path the next two days. By the time Debby turns north this weekend, she could attain hurricane status, but this is looking unlikely now. Early next week, Debby is expected to get caught up in the jet stream and die in the North Atlantic.

New African wave
Several of the computer models are predicting that the tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa today will develop into a tropical storm early next week.

Next update
The next Hurricane Hunter mission into TD 5 is at 2pm EDT this afternoon, and I'll have an update when the reports from their mission come in. Also, I'm getting a lot of questions about which models are best, where to find model output, etc, and I will try to post a quick summary of this info this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

there in the storm

During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 37 mph at 6975 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 38 mph at 6975 feet, were found by the government plane.
Posted By: WeatherByrd at 4:27 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
So this little storm TD 5 didn't get it's name at the 11:00 hour? Is it going to hit that strong shear just to it's north ease and break up?


They are having a hard time locating the center, they will not upgrade it until they do. IMO this was Ernesto long ago but I am not the one with the NHC keyboard in my hand.
503. AndyN
African Wave
...Hey Bert!.."Yeah..what Ernie?."Where am I?.."Your in the East Carribean..."Okay Bert"..
LOL @ 10ft Florida...cheeky
LOL Sayhuh. Wow, we are all getting a little too comfortable. :)
I'll do my best to entertain and educate....



How can anyone expect me to work when there is a TD out there?????
As others have said, I truly think the shear will move out of the way for TD 5, leading the path for Ernesto to debut, and the gulf to get prepared

EastCoastWx.net Forums
Link
oops. (?northward ho?)
The ULL is moving way faster west than TD5, add to the slowing movement.

The Hurricane Hunters might find the center further east......

This is far from over.
Question anyone, are whirlwind and stormtop related to each other?
Ive been reading post here off and on all morning.

Early this morning i read one experts post about it coming into the gulf so i quickly packed my suitcase and flew out the door to pack my car. I fell down my FEMA trailer steps and skinned my knees.

Then i returned to read more blogs and another expert says its going to East Fla. So i unpack my car. Whewww am i glad it nots going to hit us.

Then i read more expert posts saying gasoline is going to skyrocket so here i go again to my car to get gas so when the next expert predicts we are getting hit....I will be prepared.

Then i read all the liquor recipes and decide to just get drunk instead of worrying!!!

The moral to this story is THANKS for all the entertaining chat while we are honestly shaking in our shrimp boots that we dont get hit again.
You ARE working Nash......and doing a fine job too!
The ULL over Cuba is moving out as forecast. 20 knots of shear is bothering the northern and western fringes of the storm, but I think the center isn't being bothered that much. I also believe the center has reformed to the east further protecting it. In my opinion forward speed would have to pick up for TD5 to be shreeded to death. Nash I agree that Ernesto has formed. The NHC just needs the HH's to find the center.
On the IR - it seems that TD5's cloud tops are warming. However, it seems that physical area covered by the storm from North to South has increased 50% has it not?

TD5 still looks good on visible.
PascagoulaGal......GREAT post....you definitely rock (in or out of your fema trailer)! I'm ROFL!!!
vortex: Could it split again as it did over the coast of Venezuela?
521. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 11:30 AM CDT on August 25, 2006.
Probably will not hit that shear. The shear is moving off to the west and Ernie (yes, I am naming it because it is a foregone conclusion) has slowed. It should be basically clear sailing for Ernie through the Carribbean.


I agree...it's almost stopped moving.

Two things...

Latest GFS has it near the western tip of Cuba and then I can't really tell what happens to it. Also...the GFS latest run doesn't even show much of Debby, so it's not really handling tropical systems.

The unreliable NAM seems to have come around and has TD5 off the western tip of Cuba in 84 hours as a 1000mb low.
: Weather456 could the wind be lower has we talk?
27.....GOT IT!!! :) :) :) yuk
that is not the pressure reading
I am listening to the perfect song right now that can be applied "directly to the foreheads" of NHC forecasters.....

"Pressure" Billy Joel:-)
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 37 mph at 6975 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 38 mph at 6975 feet, were found by the government plane.


i think they are down it has not been update in a few
that's not the minimum central pressure gulf, which is 1005.
Sheez, Nash.....it's PAST beer-thirty already. Friday, duh! :) Let me get you a cold one baby.
If you look at the water vapor image there doesn't seem that much dry air to plough through. I was just wondering if it wouldn't turn a little north now since that appears to be where there's more moisture. Informed minds care to answer?
PascagoulaGal .............. I agree with you. I don't know wether I am coming or going. Should I pack or not should I go buy water or not.



I came up with the only LOGICAL explanation ................. Birmingham, AL. Sounds like a good place to live.
Taz,
There is some shear affecting it, but the next shear map will confirm if the ULL movement....
re: "nash28 at 4:40 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Thank you Laura!!! Is it beer-thirty yet??" by golly, it is somewhere.....jo
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 mph at 2349 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 43 mph at 2349 feet, were found by the government plane.


it looks like a TS now hmmmmmm
bon apetite Gulf....later then.
We should all start singing the Stones:

"I CAN'T GET NO...SATISFACTION"
Can i have a link to the government plane info
..the backside of the persistant GOM ULL is showing some reflection finally at the surface with some recent convection,,last 3 hrs..
Whatever happened to Stormtop? He was really good at plane data.
LOL Daisey. B'ham or maybe Grenada MS. or anywhere north of here is sounding better all the time. Stay Safe.
Weather456 when is the`next run shear run?
Posted By: Chicklit at 4:39 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
vortex: Could it split again as it did over the coast of Venezuela?


The convection to the north and west of the proposed new center will have a hard time wraping back around because of the shear, but I don't think the overall organization around that center is being split now. So no I don't think it will be like yesterday, but its hard to say right now.
The 12z model runs should start coming out over the next couple of hours. Hopefully they will get a little better handle on the situation...Find most of the major models here. Select the first link in the model section. This is the FSU Experimental model page. For all models except for the GFDL I set the field to 850mb vorticity to view potential genisis or track and size of tropical systems. Select animate on then scroll right and page through the model run. The GFDL only works with the field set to Surface Pressure.
What the heck happened to the blogs???
..er houston..were back on the High gain..How do u read..Over?
Whew! The blog is back. I almost had to pull out a pistol and shoot myself...
What just happen....
hmmm...that was weird.
the server farted.
44 mph at 1000 feet at the northen end of the storm.

Link
TD-5 Got us??????
Somebody was trying to tell us all to go back to work!
Can't have a meltdown in the middle of a developing storm.
...looks look we got hit by lighting..Pete Conrad..1969..LOL
ALL RIGHT, no more of that, thank you very much. whomever that annoyed the blog-burgermeister, DON'T DO IT AGAIN, i have only one nerve left and you are standing right on it.......jo
Hello? Wuba's? Where R U? Blog?
its not a TS yet, maybe the 5pm/11pm, but hte recon isnt finding more than 30-35KT winds yet
Anyway...the recon measured a pressure of 1011mbars at 16.314N 60.158W They are into the Storm yet. Winds at fligh level are 48knots outside the storm. Imagine inside.....
I mean, I was getting the cold sweats and everything!!!!

They are into the Storm yet

They are not into the storm yet.
Sheez......on....off...on. OK Patrap LOL
..remembers the good ol days..When we launched Saturn 5s thru thunderstorms...no problem..Kick the tires & lite the fires!...
i got the same thing
LMAO National!!!!
Thanks Jp
..goes to hiz corner..scolded by the good Dr,,,,,,,,,,,
Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit taking amphetamines!
wow and i thought it was me as i am not all that great with these things. lol.
Are the names of the storms assigned by the National Hurricane Center is Coral Gables Florida? If the storm is named is it from the readings received the flight into the storm. Far out the readings are from Satelite readings?
Posted By: Weather456 at 9:56 AM PDT on August 25, 2006.
Anyway...the recon measured a pressure of 1011mbars at 16.314N 60.158W They are into the Storm yet. Winds at fligh level are 48knots outside the storm. Imagine inside.....


like what dos that mean we have 70mph TS?
Those are high winds for being that far from the center. Anyone still think this isn't Ernesto.
StomTop, you need to get a map of the Caribbean. The Gulf Of Mexico begins on the West side of the Florida Keys. This is from around 80 degrees West at the top to 83 degress West at the bottom. If the soon to be Ernesto hits SW Florida then it HAS to pass through the GOM.

The 5-day forecast from the NHC cuts off 1/4 into the GOM so they kinda leave us hanging on the final destination of Ernesto. Somebody along the Gulf Coast is going to be buying plywood next weekend, I just don't know who.
The 0Z Yurpian Community model was aiming at NOLA
From the 1615Z vis...to me it looks like the center is around 13.9N and 65.8W....and the NW quadrant is getting sheared pretty good....good news as long as the shear doesn't retrograde as forecast...or at least doesn't retrograde as fast.

This is our best chance for TS Ernesto (I'm calling it that regardless of whether the NHC knows where the center is or not!!) to dissipate. If it doesn't, seems to me it could get quite ugly for some folks.

Also...on the 12 O'clock news, the Channel 4 broadcast met in Jacksonville said he was "absolutely astonsished" that this wasn't called a TS on the 11AM update.
Noticed in the latest vis that td took a jog to the north.

Gotta love wobble watching. :)
mrpuertorico

Check your radar. You have serious storms approaching the south shore.
000
URNT11 KNHC 251632
97779 16314 60158 65700 03000 12030 24248 /0011
41235
RMK AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 02


now 30knots.......

Taz, at the surface its about 35-40mph.....not sure....
any thoughts on if the center will be north of the current position?
could this be a vary stong TS rught now the way thing are looking?
what is 48knots at the surface....
at 3000ft
unconfirmined 47knot wind found by the HH's.....
..48knots=56 mph
i have not seen anything with strong TS winds at the surface...
hmmm 44kt woould be arond 60mph if i am right
i do not like this thing slowing down......
hilarious Airplane reference Nash!
No, 44 knots is more like 50 miles per hour.
"hmmm 44kt woould be arond 60mph if i am right
"

it would.... but you are wrong! LOL
Could it be that they are actually near the center because it is further north. Some people actually predicted this earlier.
..heavy t shower rain on my trailer...FEMA type..sounds like Giant peeing on a saltine tin container..LOL
44 knots is 51 mph, at altitude, which would reduce to about 40 mph at the surface.
Those are high winds for being that far from the center. Anyone still think this isn't Ernesto.
Ricder has invoked mighty powers to have it named in August.
Weather,

I think the 48 knots was a reading as they were descending from higher altitude and I read on storm2k (so noone thinks I stole this) that those readings are discounted by forecasters. The flight level where measurements are taken right now are 1000 feet. How much you should subtract for surface winds I am not sure. 15% ? There was a reading of 44 mph at 1000 in the north side. Take 15% off and you have 37.4 mph at the surface, which is TD.
About 36knts 456. Subtract 25% for surface winds
Should be interesting to see where the plane finds the center..

On an unrelated note , a friend of mine called me from Minnesota last night asking me to tell her
to check out the radar because she was getting 3" hail and the sirens were going off. Thought some of you would like to see this :Hook echo Luckily , it missed her.
"12Z Canadian says TD or TS into Mobile on Wednesday."

IMPOSSIBLE, SAYS ST..... WRITTEN IN STONE!!!!
hey i think that ULL is gone now that was puting a lot of shaer overe TD 5 look at the photo on dr m blog i think it is now geting a lot stonger
check onlineconversion.com, 44 kt = 50.634 mph
..we still have a treaty with the Canadiens?...LOL.
622. PBG00
I will feel alot better when the models consitantly have a handle on this thing..arlier the cmc had this a a texas hurricane..now its a ts in ms..
well, just like yesterday, we are "close" to an upgrade in status..... winds are close speed wise, but do we have a closed circ with enough convection to support a TS??
624. PBG00
Oops..ala
instead of arguing about where in the gulf or florida let focus on Haiti and Cuba.....I hope they have enough time to prepare
I saw that Thel.
I think I will join Nash and not stop until Sun nite.lol
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 54 mph at 997 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 55 mph at 1001 feet, were found by the government plane.
NW side at 54 mph at 997 feet.

Link
Thanks Everybody
This should mean tropical storm winds with that reading with even taking 25% off.
the ULL is gone look how march well TD 5 is doing now
638. Alec
canesnake's post is regarded as spam...mark it as such!
Canada welcomes you
thelmores, the 12Z Canadian looks like pretty far east of Mobile, more like Destin. Look at it again and let me know if I am missing something.
I'm with you StormW.

This "jackball" needs to go play in traffic.
StormW - Taking those tests sounds like fun. Did you take them closed book, closed notes?
GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW
Excerpt from the NHC 11am discussion. Sound pretty ominous ...

INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR. HOWEVER...IF THE
SHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.
Shear is relaxing....
Hey thel, is that recon map link always the same? Where are you getting it from? Want to put it on the Quick Links page. I just put the real time recon data on there.
how march well ???
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 54 mph at 997 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 55 mph at 1001 feet, were found by the government plane.


This is from WeatherMatrix.com
GFS STILL refuses to pick up this storm.

They may be the outlier this time.
StormW - Cool. Great scores. Think I'll give it a try sometime just to see what I really know. Should be a good learning experience.
LouisianaLandMan,think Ed is just quicly extrapolating data.... u didnt miss anything! :)
1st time post , do i need to refresh to see new posting ?
456. Those are surface winds right?? Not flight level?
The 12z GFS has shifted to the north, but it never really seems to initalize the system. Seems like it think it will move mroe northerly and get ripped up by shear.
..seesthe Cyclone nearing or @ Tropical storm Status..on guidance ..with the overall Ul pattern still conducive for slow to moderate strenghting...a reforming of the center looks to be in the works and hopefully..the Plane will find a good coc..G-4 Research flier should help in the Big overall upper air pattern outlook too..next 72-96 hrs...
ok..time out....blowing whistle...just got back from a terrific christmas gift from the wife...today is christmas you know...and i'm catching up...and you've got to quit spamming these posts.....people like me with inquiring minds don't get the full affect...and hanks for someone to post about windspeed being lower at the surface than what they are at altitude....was about to hemorage watching the excitement build the last few pages and the increasing wind speeds....and seeing...ahh..so it's a t storm now....yelling..but that;s altitude..not surface......ok..i've ranted and rambled..i feel much better...hi everyone
661. PBG00
Cult..yes you do..
could this be a "Chris"?
Hey StormW - you gettin in trouble AGAIN? :) Troublemaker...

Don't let ST get to you...grain of salt, along with a WRITTEN IN STONE sandwich.
Welcom cult...Yes viewing new posts require a refresh.

456-that is the link I just added to the Quick Links page. I would like to get a link to the google earth maps that show location...
okay, so say I wanted to become a meteorologist...recommend any good programs? Preferably distance learning...I already have a bachelor's in Biology...does that help?

I'm totally serious...
During reconnaissance of tropical system CYCLONE a maximum sustained wind speed of 33 mph at 997 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 34 mph at 997 feet, were found by the government plane.
Nash,

Those are flight level so you have to subtract for surface. How much...not sure...15-25% maybe.
Posted By: nash28 at 5:19 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
GFS STILL refuses to pick up this storm.

They may be the outlier this time.


I wonder why that is since it relaxes the shear.
It would appear that once this storm gets through this bit of challenging shear it will be quite happy with itself.
I was saying the same thing SJ. The GFS has never initialized this system once since the beginning.
..believe they flew yesterday or early this morn..they have hard time in the Carribean due to Int Air Borders..they likey orbiting ahead of the system ..nearer the Yuc..and GOM...since the track lays that way...but dont qoute me..LOL
17:16:00 14.06 -66.98 997 316 5 6 76 76

looks like they may be getting close to the center.... speeds have dropped off considerable...

would 14latt 67long be about right????

Nash , Yeah...I beleive

Can someone give SJ, the link to the google maps, I dont have a link.

The system is moving slower, its not even pass Puerto Rico's longitude
Again Miami, way to copy every word verbatim from a 456 post.
jp......he's "sharing"..in this new community of love and repsect for each other...we need to embrace that
weather456 is the the ULL gone now? look how march well the storm is looking now
"SILVERSTRIPES,
Surface windspeed is 90% of flight level."

that also depends on what the flight level is.... correct me if i am wrong......
..remembers like the 3rd night after katrina..near the Breech @ the 17th St canal..seeing the High flyers blinking against the Milky Way..was Moonless nights...and there was like 2-3 Gulfstreams..way up there...snapping away..was comforting in a way...
Hey nash, how you doing? I ask this of your earier but you must have already left but do you think TD5 could pull a 04 Charlie?
thanx... for that thelmores....i was trying to find somewhere that extrapolates altitude to surface...there ha to be a formula..but i can't find one
SJ, i am finding the google earth images here.... dont know their true origin....

is the NW quadranr being sheared off?
StormW - Well at least we know you are not one of those who forecast from below their belt. LOL.
ric....LOL!
..yeah..the G-4 data is the kinda stuff ya need to iron out a good CMC & super ensemble run..I believe come Sun evening..they be swinging into order ..some..maybe..kinda..LOL
Patrap..I'm humbled man.
oops!!! NE quadrant being sheared?
StormW,

Thanks...I was just using numbers that I have seen thrown about. HAHA. So it is 90% at a flight level of 1000 feet. I have also head it changes with flight level. So that reading we had of 54 mph would calculate to about 48.6 mph at surface.
Posted By: WunderYakuza (Admin) at 10:06 AM PDT on August 25, 2006.
Sorry for the hiccup everyone. Blogs should be fine again. Carry on!
Taz, what has happen is that TD5 has slowed considerable. The ULL is moving at the same speed west.

Its like a rabbit running away from a turtle/slug.
looks to this old jarhead's tired eyes the NE quad is getin blown away
From the looks of the latest recon info, it looks like they found a center that had 5mph winds and a temp difference of about +2 degrees.
google earth from storm2k

this one shows the 11am advisory position, in relation to the plane....
..why.franck?
Thanks, Dr. Masters, for the explination of the wind shear chart. I had no idea how to read them.
The best measure of the potential of these storms is what they do at night, and Ernesto showed some spunk last night. The shear will probably mangle him, and he may be all shot up time he hits the beach, but he's probably going to hold together.
URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
Hey StPeteBill. Good to see you.

To answer your question, I believe the west coast of our state is susceptable. For me to pinpoint a Charley hook at this stage of the game would be irresponsible of me, but I do think the FL peninsula has a high chance of being affected by Ernie. I do strongly believe in the Northern model solutions.
ok all i think they are flying out now so what did they find 50mph winds?
Posted By: thelmores at 5:34 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
google earth from storm2k

this one shows the 11am advisory position, in relation to the plane....


I think its safe to say we have a new center.
The 5:30 entry was pure poetry.
45 knots at the surface
looks like it's getting busted up a bit??
..Max served us all well..and with dedication & a no-nonsense.attitude. He will be missed..
vortex data above......

14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
is the new center more north? this would change potential path and potential affect of wind sheer a lot
weather456 what dos that mean now
Then you just put your Muse on the shelf and go technical.
..Oh..Okay..Franck..iz Okay..we were out the water..but tired from being in it.WE were the lucky ones...
No Gulf, I was watching the flight data on here and noticed the temp rise two degrees and the winds drop, whent hey came out of this area winds started to rise in opposite direction. They found a center IMHO.
45 Kt = almost 52 mph at the surface from the vortex.
URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
so whats the verdict????

TS Ernesto at 2pm..... or 5pm??????
..out to the Middle school run..b bac later...
miami..the gfdl might not be out to lunch!
I agree pat...Big shout out and thanks to Max Mayfield.
URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT


we have a TS now and what is 45kt or 48kt in mph?
So does this potentially mean we have Ernie? They have locacted only one area of tropical storm force winds lets see if they find more areas.
Taz, what has happen is that TD5 has slowed considerable. Weather456
If you look at the shear map on the top of this page, wouldn't it make sense that TD5 would move between the two 50-shear areas?
looks like Ernie is being sheared with the LL storm moving out from below. Is a new Low forming under the the convection south-east of the center
Posted By: StormJunkie at 5:38 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
No Gulf, I was watching the flight data on here and noticed the temp rise two degrees and the winds drop, whent hey came out of this area winds started to rise in opposite direction. They found a center IMHO.


Totally agree. Give up the falling apart theory for now. It is reorganizing and starting to flare up again over the new center.
ok, now that we have the vortex data 3 times.... whats the verdict..... vote now! LOL
Taz, by the looks of the situation, the ULL will not be they by time TD5 arrives.

the hurricane hunters found 45knots at the surface...
Taz,

That is almost 52 mph.
temp also started to drop as soon as the winds started coming up again. I think we will have Ernesto soon.
Ernesto
if tthe ULL is moveing a way that mean there will now be 50 mph shaer any more
749. IKE
Posted By: thelmores at 12:41 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
ok, now that we have the vortex data 3 times.... whats the verdict..... vote now! LOL


It's a TS.
would a new center be north of south of the current one?
TS
Chicklit that is the situation.
I still think we had Ernie 3 hours ago...
I to don't think shear is really affecting it all that much satellite images to appear to be showing signs of organizing more and slowing down. I believe the HH will find a closed circulation and a 50mph ts by the 5pm advisory. I don't see any dissipation in our TD/TS Ernesto unless he heads towards Cuba and stalls then dissipation would be likely. But TD05 does show some resemblance to TS Chris before he dissipated with it's overall cloud structure about 5 - 6 hours ago but has since become better organized as convection is consolidating.
dead relatives....ahhh...we are voting southern style now
Imagine what they could have found at 3 am last night when the convection was at its peak 456.
Yes taz, thats the situation right now....
apparently, there will be no 2pm advisory, "unless" it is a special advisory....

the biggest thing i noticed, which i think SJ may have touched on, the temperature difference is not great, and the center seems somewhat detached from the strongest convection..... this storm looked better this morning.....

given the current data.... i vote it is "STILL" TD5!

OK, flame away! LOL
we have a TS IMO, of course with my opinion and 50 cents you might be able to buy a cheap cup of coffee
No matter how disorganized, if its a closed circulation with 48 knot winds at flight level, or between 35 and 40 knots at sea level, it is, by definition, a tropical storm.
Hold on, maybe we will not have Ernesto.... I spoke a littel too soon. It looks the center they just flew through is completely exposed on the W side of the convection. 14N 67W
this thing is dying down, i thought we might have our first hurricane this yr, but it looks to me like it'll be gone by tomorrow nite
hey the next ? what did they find as in mb?
TS
Posted By: ricderr at 5:45 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
dead relatives....ahhh...we are voting southern style now

There are some traditions that we just refuse to break.
D. 45 kt (Estimate of maximum surface wind observed in knots) ->Ernesto (official at next advisory).
Um....blink. Can someone help me out here and tell me what happened with Max Mayfield?? I read down far enough to hear "you will be missed." Did he die, or is he retiring?
Well the vortex message had 45 Kt at the surface, which is well over TS threshold criteria. Like I said before there was only one area on the north side so far where the winds were present. They are currently working the area well outside and on the west of that center blob and the winds are 13 mph at 1000 feet.
"No matter how disorganized, if its a closed circulation with 48 knot winds at flight level, or between 35 and 40 knots at sea level, it is, by definition, a tropical storm"

i agree with SJ.... you need strong convection around the center to upgrade..... we dont have that...... apparently you missed my comment about the center being 100 miles from the strongest convection..... not a healthy system atm..... i'd be really surprised if they upgrade......
Tshizzle: You downplay every storm that begins to form. Can you not see that it has strengthened since the 8am and 11am?

Gone tomorrow my left..... well, you know.
A tropical storm is a closed circulation with winds of 39mph and above.

If the Hurricane Hunters found winds of 39 or above its a tropical storm, no matter where the center is.

He's retiring.

Recon's got 45kt flight-level, or 41kt surface, that's a 45mph T.S. Ernesto.
779. IKE
The center isn't exposed...look at the visible...it's under the convection...at about 13N, 65.5W.
PLEASE SPAM Melagoo'S IMAGE......

WAY TOO BIG!!! (1.6MB LOOP)

please try to be consderate of the dial uppers....
Looks like the mid level and low level circulations are completely detached.
783. IKE
They should issue a special advisory.
So what is this "thing" off the coast of Georgia/Carolina? Still just a stalled something or other (from the torrential rain we had last night?)?

Sorry
Now they are in the SW area approaching those islands near South America and the winds are 8-10 mph at flight level. Pretty sure they will start turning back towards the storm pretty soon.
Hey everyone, trying to catch up and got a question.

I keep seeing you reference StormTop's post, BUT I haven't seen a post on here from him since 11am this morning....has he been posting and his posts so insulting to people they have been spammed then deleted????

Just wondering????
Ike, from what I saw on that Recon data the center is exposed. Maybe I am missing something or did not read the data right, or look at the imagery right, but it looks exposed. This may all be an illusion due to reorg, but it appears this is the case. Have to see what else recon finds.

what are the dynamics of the weather that comes off "that" area of africa that makes it so likely to produce the start of a low? i understand the path provides fuel (warm waters). ive learned dust is "bad" but i would think that would allow water to condense eariler in couldtops. now im guessing dust is not the answer...thanks for the help in advance
There should be another vortex message coming in shortly. it would not be until after the recon leaves the system before they update it. I have seen them do a special update, at almost any time of day when they feel it necessary.
Posted By: Melagoo at 1:55 PM EDT on August 25, 2006.
Sorry



No problem, things like that happen, it can be fixed. :0)
794. IKE
I don't see an exposed center on a visible loop.

I'll look at it on floater 2.
"a closed LLC and tropical storm force winds. It either has to be an open wave or a tropical storm. It can not be a tropical depression because the winds are too high. So are you calling this a an open wave?"

GOOD POINT..... CAN SOMEBODY GIVE ME A DIFFERENT CHOICE! LOL
Alberto was upgraded with an expose center. and TD5 does not appear to have an expose center.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE AT 25/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.5N 66.4W MOVING WEST 13 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 340
MILES...545 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 760
MILES...1220 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. FOR MORE
DETAILS SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/ WTNT25 KNHC...AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 62W-67W.
798. IKE
I looked at it on floater 2 visible...the center is not exposed...if anything, it has gain some convection back.
Hurricane IOKE

Thelmores is right and SJ are right. I wonder if they will investigate the area that appears to be the new center forming. That vortex message appears to be from the old center, that maybe isn't old at all. Still looks to me like there is a new center forming.
Guys, I am new on this blog..I was a Met Tech at PBI during the 70's and worked with Max Mayfield when I was with the satellite division (NESS)as a Tech. Let me just say that Max prides himself on being the model textbook on guidelines..that's why this storm is not classified. He's beyond extreme. He worked with Don Gaby at NHC as I did and that's where he learned to be a robot. My opinion, but I worked with him.
Center IS exposed.
OK.... time for Dr. Masters to set us all straight! LOL
(singing the jeopardy song waiting for the update...anyone have any news?)
807. IKE
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:01 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
I smell overreacting again...people see one flare up and say its on its way; others see the convection waning and say it is weakening and that it will be gone soon

Developing systems do this all the time; dont jump to conclusions


Agree...take deep breaths.

Looks like the center is east of the 2:05 pm EDT tropical discussion coordinates.
vortextrance-

this looks like the fourth center that has formed over the past six hours - it looks like it drops its center and then reemerges somewhere new..very interesting
Posted By: thelmores at 5:51 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
i agree with SJ.... you need strong convection around the center to upgrade..... we dont have that...... apparently you missed my comment about the center being 100 miles from the strongest convection..... not a healthy system atm..... i'd be really surprised if they upgrade......

thel - You and SJ may be right, but if there is a closed circulation and 45kts winds I have some trouble understanding the reasoning...after all, even when Chris was totally stripped of deep convection and just a low-level swirl, they did not downgrade it. Maybe the criteria for "upgrade" is different than the criteria for "downgrade"?

Chris example:

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006

THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER...
[...]

810. IKE
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:03 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
Center IS exposed.


Where?

The recon vortex didn't indicate so in the comments.
Didn't this system get upgraded to depression status yesterday with an exposed center. At the very least there was no convection to the west when it became a depression.
You're right on jp. Just cool your jets everyone and sit back and watch what happens. Remember we're about to undergo the diurnal minimum, so it's common for this kind of thing to happen at this time.
So what do you make of it 03? Still think we have Ernesto soon?
I <3 wikipedia; thanks for the good read
What do you all think of GFDL newest model?
Yeah it really doesn't matter if the center is exposed or not...need I remind you that Alberto was upgraded to a TS even though it looked terrible and all of the convection was well E of the center?
note the coordinates in the NHC discussion. They do not match the so-called exposed center. No exposed center.
So Im confused do we have Tropical storm or not? Explain.
Anyone know where I can get the SSTs as opposed to last year. I have seen some great NOAA maps, but don't know where to find them. Thanks!
We have a TS; just not officially yet. ProgressivePulse called it at 3:13 AM last night =]
Katrina2005-

Officially no...but it depends on who you ask.
We may SJ. Its close. But, with the center exposed now, its not looking good currently. Convection will need to form near the center again.
NPR just spoke the words "tropical storm Ernesto".....not will be, but IS!
I noticed that ciclon, but there are not too far off from being exposed either. Just does not match what I am seeing.
I think based on recon we have TS now. satellit eis iffy, but the recon don't lie
can someone send me a link to the gfdl model?
New to blog...been following discussions all day. Thanks for all the good links great in class.
Ok I don't think my message got posted. Does anybody have the link to what the wind shear is near TD 5 and in the gulf? From what Dr masters posted it looks like TD 5 could hit the shear monster and get blown apart. What is everybodys thought on that?



Thats where i see the LLC..... but maybe it is trying to form a new one..... just don't see it yet...
What do you all think of GFDL newest model?

I'm Keys bound tomorrow, so needless to say, it adds some comfort, if only a pinch. A track straight accross Cuba would definately shut it up for a little too... until it got into the GOM anyways.
Here melwerle
Link
I think Canesnake is Stormtop...
mel, Quick Links

Select the first link in the model section. This is the FSU Experimental model page. For all models except for the GFDL I set the field to 850mb vorticity to view potential genesis or track and size of tropical systems. Select animate on then scroll right and page through the model run. The GFDL only works with the field set to Surface Pressure.
Expect an upgrade at 5pm edt. winds will probably be listed as 40/45.
sorry--wrong link
Link
Thank you wilee...
Posted By: Canesnake at 6:10 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
STORMW
I AM NOT A METEOROLOGICAL TYPE NOR AM I AN IDIOT. HOWEVER, I CAN TELL WHEN SOMEONE IS MAKING A WILD ASS GUSS. WHEN YOU MAKE AN IDIOT POST, THAT IS WHAT YOU BECOME. YOUR POST ARE A GREAT DEMONSTRATION OF YOUR POOR GRASP OF THE SCIENCE OF METEOROLOGY. I ONLY HOPE A POTENTIAL FUTURE EMPLOYEER OR CURRENT EMPLOYEER IS NOT READING YOUR POST.

STORMTOP RULES

YOURS TRULY
CANESNAKE

SPAM! I wish this blog had an ignore button
Where in the US do you think will have best chance of getting this storm? How bad do you think it will get?
Booted?
The GFDL model is going to kill New Orleans again!
Thank you SJ & Wilee...you're da bomb...
851. IKE
Looking at a visible I now do see a small swirl just to the WNW of the deep convection. Not sure if it means anything.
thelmores , I think you are lookign at a small vortex rotating around the main center, which is around 14.1 67.0
canesnake.....how about a bit of proof as to why's he's wrong?.....i mean...heck..if you're gonna beat him.....bring out the big guns....oh..but you have to know something then yourself......nevermind....you way is easier and your only option...i'm sorry...here..let me erase...oops..wrong button
MiamiFisher stop plagerizing stuff from my blog. Thank You.
Yeah MiamiFisher I posted that in 03's blog don't do that.
weather.....that's "sharing"....it's all love and kindness day...no plagiarism...just love...tra la la
planes found TS winds at flight level, maybe BARELY at surface with a guestimate.

cloud tops are warming, center isnt under strongest winds, etc. its coming apart like Chris did
The GFDL model is going to kill New Orleans again!
That northern jog at the very end has those of us in Bangla-cola thinking "oh, peachy..."

I think Canesnake is Stormtop...
Opinion seconded.
well, it would seem to me that td5 has to reform a center east, or it may be headed for the afore mentioned graveyard!
Bootsie1, probably(and this is just an educated guess) from around Penescola to Tampico need to be concerned. Also central/west Cuba. Jamaica. Caymans and yucatan.
Should I post recon.
Hey RI...what's YOUR take on the storm? You're always so willing to bash - gimme your EXPERT opinion?
Wouldn't anything headed to the gulf stay on a general westward path due to the high pressure that's been around all summer? That's what's keeping the rain away from central texas and we're not expecting any for the rest of the week.
URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
878. IKE
Posted By: txweather at 1:14 PM CDT on August 25, 2006.
thelmores , I think you are lookign at a small vortex


That's what i thought it was. Couldn't think of the word...I'm not a met.
Had they of located a center @ 5am they would have upgraded it Miami Fisher
Whatever, I said it in a nice way. Be a jerk if you want to. Maybe you will have your own thoughts oneday.
Posted By: StormW at 6:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Hey,
rapidinetnsify,
I offer you the same challenge...take those tests, unless you afraid to find out what you really know (or don't know)

I took the test - and I confirmed that I don't know crap. That's why I lurk around in here. Best tropical weather site on the planet.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 6:15 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
everyone needs to just calm down and watch; we have to see what the HH finds now; it could change EVERYTHING; so dont put any weight right now on any of the model runs

Agree JP, there is too much confusion right now. We need all the data. It could be anything from a reorganizing system to a sheared off dying system. I still vote for reorganizing but need more info.
Posted By: tshizzle at 2:16 PM AST on August 25, 2006.
planes found TS winds at flight level, maybe BARELY at surface with a guestimate.


Planes found 45knots at surface
I didn't relaize it hadn't been posted yet. Sorry.
Also thelmores, you are probably folling the right center, my grid was off. Dooh.
Thank you GulfS!!
I don't think Chris had nearly has much moisture around it as #5 and has less shear to go through.
"Its all going to depend on what they find under the convection. If they find winds from the SSE-SSW and just as strong (30-40 knot range)...don't hold your breath on that happening anytime soon. You'll have a better chance of the LLC surviving the shear and starting over than you will a new LLC forming...especially with a 1005mb pressure already with the LLC. The gradient winds will be WAY too strong for anything to work it's way down. Given the 40 knot winds are only 150 miles or so away...and blowing out of the area of the MLC...I am going to venture a guess and say the winds are going to be just as strong in that area.

Rule of Thumb: New LLC's do NOT form in strong pressure gradients within high wind fields. They like to form under heavy convection when the winds are light...usually under 10 knots."

we could be seeing the beginning of the end for td5..... the above analysis seems valid to me......
What is the probability of my Labor Day weekend being ruined AGAIN???


I live in Southeast LA, and I am going to Gulf Shores, AL for Labor day camping.


Last year I did get to go camping on Labor day ................ but I prefer to have ELECTRICITY, WATER, and Phone if at all possible.
Hey StormW - I think Canesnake is Stormtop...
> That northern jog at the very end has those of us in Bangla-cola thinking "oh, peachy..."

No kidding. ;-)

kit (in Warrington)
Things are gettin' dirty in here... It must be Hurricane season!
Posted By: BrnGrl at 2:51 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Survey to pass the time until the 11am:

Name the first hurricane you can remember actually experiencing.

Mine was Alicia in 1983. The eye passed over my house. Then, a tornado destroyed our garage.


Agnes in 1972...not a lot of wind, but a lot of flooding...it inundated most of Occoquan, and took out our water treatment plant...we had no city water for days...it was my first experience with bottled water.
New Blog.
Latest Wind Sheer>

Here for the person that asked for wind sheer map.
I have one question? Where is STORMTOP when we really need him. I really look forward to his analysis of storms heading to the GOM. Keep up the good work STORMTOP.
New blog is up
StormW, Not going to post my scores - no way -way too embarrassing. I think I'll keep my day job and just learn what I can from you guys.
Current situation:


Red = surface flow around exposed vortex
Green = mid level flow with CDO feature

Most want weatherguy on here since he is trained met and gives out educated and original info.
Can anyone clarify that prediction by a storm center said that Ioke will become 158 knots = 180 MPH storm with a central pressure of 886 MBs??? Is that true?
I just looked down and saw that my center was exposed and I don't think that it is blowing hard enough for me to reclassify it yet.
notice the good Dr. hasnt posted yet either..... guess he is sitting on the fence too! LOL
There is a lot of speculation regarding TD5 right now. However the only thing I can go on is the visible satellite and that shows that this storm is not looking as healthy as it did this morning when it clearly was a tropical storm. Now obviously, this could change and it could blow up again any time. As far as the models and where this thing develops. I am not going to put much weight in any of them until this system develops some consistency.
Posted By: HadesGodWyvern at 6:24 PM GMT on August 25, 2006.
Latest Wind Sheer>
Thank you!
Kit ~ edge of Pleasant Grove {;^P
Hurricane center director retiring

Friday, August 25, 2006; Posted: 1:57 p.m. EDT (17:57 GMT)

Max Mayfield has led the National Hurricane Center since May 2000.

MIAMI, Florida (AP) -- National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield will retire in January, the center said Friday.

He told staffers at the center that "No one event has caused this. I've been here 34 years and as Forrest Gump said in the movie, 'I'm tired and I want to go home,"' The Miami Herald reported on its Web site.

Mayfield, 57, has led the hurricane center and its forecasters since May 2000.

He told the Herald that he wasn't sure what he would do after retiring: "I don't have anything lined up, and I don't want to even think about it until I get some rest."
Always StormW...thank you.
1st hurricane..........


Eleana in 1985 I think.......... Oh yeah it ruined my labor day. That was a cool one. It was headed to tampa and did a complete loop and turned around and came b-line for us. My mome woke me up in the middle of the night cause my friends had to go home. No electricity and water for a week.


George ........... 8 mths pregnant with no electricity for a week. NOT FUN!!!

Katrina.......... 1 yr later still recovering.:(
Analysis as of now. We ALMOST CERTAINLTY HAVE A STORM. However, whether this system will survive is still in the air. The centr is barely in the convection I think. I have been looking and think the midlevel center is to the SE, not the surface circulation. I'm unsure and not impressed with the structure, but Chris was almost identical and the called it a storms, so we probably have a storm.
OK, SOMEBODY CAME UP WITH A SOLUTION......

call it "TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO".....

since it looked like a storm this morning, and loks like a depression now!

works for me! LOL
Dr. Masters going to head up the NHC now?
i hate to say it sis..but this one seems to have pepsi cola written all over it..just a feeling
themores,
Yes I see the LLC or swirl you refer too, but in looking at the floater visible loop, there is too much evidence in my mind that the primary LLC is under the CDO. Its not uncommon for developing systems to have multiple LLCs that either combine, dissipate to the primary or split off all together. I don't think the one you showed [good eye by the way] is the primary. I think this looks pretty healthy, and will wait to see what happens as we near the diurnal max.
> Kit ~ edge of Pleasant Grove {;^P

Ha! Almost neighbors. Pleased to meet you.

I think this storm may slip past us. But we have every right to be a bit gun-shy of anything with a name these days ...
fldude99, I'd LOVE to argue with you, but seeing as how I got my gas cans filled this morning while we still had some to get, that would make me a hypocrite of HUGE proportions {8^P.

"hooked on a feeling..."
Was out of commission this morning, hello all; this is just an observation, not speculation...I agree with Dr. Master's "do or die" scenario between now and Sunday as the NOAA Floater vapor loop clearly shows the impending collision between TD5/Dry Air/Shear...If the shear does not move westward as forcast, TD5 may be history in the very near future............As far as the present status, the same loop shows what appears to be another spilt/reorganization on the the southern end of the circulation
melwerle....that would be ricardo to you...add the capital to the r mind you....and......i am the first to say i am not an expert and would want no one to use anything i say as more than a mere hobbyist attempt at assimilating meanings from data...however...when i see...crap..and smell crap..it's easy to say..it's crap..therefore i feel qualified in making my comments...as far as td5...i think the posistion on the center isn't clear right now and until that is known..it's very difficult to predict it's track and strength...i would however,expect shear to decrease..and i would think it has the best chance of becoming a hurricane than anything we've seen thus far this season...as far as anything else...i am happy in my ignorance..and will tra la la in the ocean this weekend torturing the fishies trying to find the all to elusive sailfish
Hey guys? What's that swirly GOM deal S of mouth of the MS River?
yea sis..even if it goes by 'cola..it will still disrupt the oil situation
WHXX01 KWBC 251834
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060825 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 1800 060826 0600 060826 1800 060827 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 68.9W 16.0N 71.1W 17.2N 73.3W
BAMM 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.0N 71.8W 17.0N 74.2W
A98E 14.1N 67.1W 14.8N 69.8W 15.6N 72.2W 16.5N 74.5W
LBAR 14.1N 67.1W 14.9N 69.5W 16.2N 71.8W 17.2N 74.2W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 1800 060828 1800 060829 1800 060830 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 75.7W 19.6N 80.7W 20.2N 85.9W 21.2N 90.7W
BAMM 18.2N 76.7W 19.9N 81.5W 21.0N 86.1W 22.2N 90.0W
A98E 17.7N 77.0W 19.6N 82.4W 21.2N 87.7W 22.6N 92.2W
LBAR 18.3N 76.6W 20.9N 81.0W 22.4N 85.2W 24.0N 88.9W
SHIP 68KTS 78KTS 81KTS 82KTS
DSHP 68KTS 72KTS 74KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 67.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 64.4W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 61.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
I'm guessing, since they are calling it Tropical Storm Ernesto, it will be upgraded at 4:30
Looks like canesnake went to visit TS Chris. He was here all puffed up and then just went poof.
My weather knowledge consists of trying to remember not to stare up at rain storms with my mouth open and drown.
I say everyone who makes personal remarks needs to grow up and quite acting like a bunch of Tiddy-Babies & keep this blog informative instead of a cry-baby, name calling session.

Nuff said...stay on topic please...
NEW BLOG
hey waverunner i havent changed my thinking if this thing stays together until sunday south fla and the east coast will have to deal with a cat 1 to cat 3 hurricane on wednesday...all you people in south fla and up the eastern seaboard should be alert and be ready to take quick action....those of us in the gulf we can relax as long as the trade winds are there it will turn ernesto to the nw and finally to the nnw....so right now it looked liked the gulf of mexico has dodged a bullet ...after what we been through we deserve it.....thats the latest now ill have new info around 8pm....StormTop
"this spares the gulf coast im breathing a lot easier now fot the people on the gulf coast...ernesto will be a cat 1 hurricane as it threatens fla and moves up the east coast.." -STORMTOP



what a moron!!!