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Ernesto hits the Yucatan with 85 mph winds

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:23 PM GMT on August 08, 2012

Ernesto is tropical storm again, after making landfall Tuesday night at 11 pm EDT just north of the Belize/Mexico border as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. We have few good weather observations near the landfall location, though an automated weather station on Banco Chinchorro Island just off the coast of Mexico reported a minimum pressure of 979.4 mb. A personal weather station at the Margarita del Sol Costa Maya Resort recorded sustained winds of 42 mph, gusting to 49 mph, and a pressure of 988 mb in the west eyewall of Ernesto before the station failed. No other weather stations were in the eyewall, and we did not have a hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm at landfall to measure the winds, due to technical issues. Belize radar shows that Ernesto's eyewall has collapsed, but the storm has remained well-organized during its passage over the Yucatan Peninsula. Infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms are mainly affecting Mexico.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ernesto at 10:45 pm EDT August 7, shortly before landfall. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Storm Ernesto, taken at 12:15 pm EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Both radar and satellite loops show that Ernesto had a south of due west (260°) motion this morning, and it is no longer clear if the storm will re-emerge over the ocean on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula. Even if Ernesto does move out over water again, it will be very close to the coast, limiting intensification potential. The official NHC forecast still calls for Ernesto to attain Category 1 hurricane strength over the Bay of Campeche. Ernesto's main threat will be heavy rainfall threat in the mountainous regions along its path through Mexico.

92L
A tropical wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with satellite loops showing limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. A large amount of dry air to the west and north of 92L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots. None of the reliable computer models develop 92L. The GFS model predicts 92L will reach the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday, but the other major models show a much slower motion with no threat to the islands for at least six days. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92L a 30% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Friday morning.

A tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on Thursday night is predicted to develop by both the GFS and ECMWF models.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AussieStorm:

I did say Similar... not exactly like Ernesto. gee. Some people should go to bed earlier than they do


I agree...it's likely that the track will be similar...at least through the majority of the carribean. We'll see towards the western carribean.

@wunderman, in general that all looks like it could play out well, however, I think that your general track should be shifted a bit to the north with a little bit less of a NW curvature towards the end. I think that ultimately, the cone would be placed the same, but if that were a more official track, I would shift it north. I don't think synoptics favor a sharp turn to the NW like that.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I did say Similar... not exactly like Ernesto. gee. Some people should go to bed earlier than they do


My argument is that it's a different track. This thing WILL go wnw and won't turn back. Mark my word.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
hmm guess you cant paste from twitter



Images,,, nope. just link it. or save it and upload to imageshack.us
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I thought Dr. Masters came in yesterday and announced JFV's permanent ban? Why do we still talk of the so called PIA?


He'll be back. That was just one of his many handles.
Time: 05:01:00Z
Coordinates: 19.2833N 93.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.5 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,478 meters (~ 4,849 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 77° at 81 knots (From the ENE at ~ 93.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.2°C* (~ 59.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 84 knots (~ 96.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 54 knots (~ 62.1 mph)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its trackin west
the convection is rotating within the coc
of the low itself giving that illusion

I don't think so

plus steering agrees with WSW movement a matter of fact it has WSW movement till it reaches 50W then W so if it does continue 92L would be around 10-11-12N when its at 50 W but I think 92L will be around 13N when it reachs 50W
Time: 05:01:30Z
Coordinates: 19.2667N 93.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.0 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,489 meters (~ 4,885 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 75 at 79 knots (From the ENE at ~ 90.8 mph)
Air Temp: 14.6C* (~ 58.3F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 85 knots (~ 97.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
So right off the bat after 92L develops and immediately strengthens it could go a little further north of the Antillies and become more of an east coast threat instead of a Caribbean storm....correct?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I thought Dr. Masters came in yesterday and announced JFV's permanent ban? Why do we still talk of the so called PIA?

I never knew that.


mmmmm naked... lol

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Below is my forecast track. I have no reason to believe it'll come straight for Miami -- it's just a gut feeling. ;P



It seems all the ensembles have a very clear cut idea of where 92L will go.


ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 120809000000
2012080900
15.0 320.4
15.1 313.6
100
14.9 320.4
090600
1208090500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 090600
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 39.6W TO 15.1N 46.4W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
090400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 39.6W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROXIMATELY 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 78 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EXIST IN THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 100600Z.//9212080600 116N 225W 20
9212080606 116N 235W 20
9212080612 116N 245W 20
9212080618 116N 255W 20
9212080700 117N 266W 25
9212080706 118N 278W 25
9212080712 118N 296W 25
9212080718 121N 312W 25
9212080800 127N 325W 25
9212080806 133N 339W 25
9212080812 139N 354W 25
9212080818 143N 370W 25
9212080900 145N 386W 25

995mb at not to the center yet.
Quoting tropicfreak:
So right off the bat after 92L develops and immediately strengthens it could go a little further north of the Antillies and become more of an east coast threat instead of a Caribbean storm....correct?

you mean, something similar to Irene?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


He'll be back. That was just one of his many handles.


No that was an IP ban based on his original name.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


No that was an IP ban based on his original name.


When did this happen? i wanna look
HH Sould be trying to find the centers new position in anout 15 minutes, We will she if he is status quo or strengthening.

Afer that I gotta get to bed, I have early appointment at the V.A. Clinic in Oceanside,CA.

Have fun and a good night for all.

If anyone is looking at the 00GFS would you post 96 to 144 hours?
Ernie's flight level winds are now right at 100mph.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


No that was an IP ban based on his original name.


It's really easy to get around IP bans, I always have an IP blocker on for security reasons.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
My first guess track on 92L... No intensity prediction, as it is too early to tall as it isn't even a depression yet.



I think it'll have more issues with land than anything else in it's lifetime.
not if it takes that south track u got
I would upgrade Ernesto to a hurricane at the 2 am advisory.
Even with JFV gone, Jason remains at large. The threat remains, stay alert and aware.
994.2mb with 20kt winds.
Lowest I could find

Time: 05:11:30Z
Coordinates: 18.7833N 92.85W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,445 meters (~ 4,741 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.2 mb (~ 29.36 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 240° at 5 knots (From the WSW at ~ 5.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0°C* (~ 64.4°F*)
Dew Pt: 18.0°C* (~ 64.4°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 18 knots (~ 20.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
Quoting AussieStorm:

you mean, something like Irene?


Irene or Floyd, something like that
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


No that was an IP ban based on his original name.


Really?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


When did this happen? i wanna look


What he said^

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It's really easy to get around IP bans, I always have an IP blocker on for security reasons.


And true...
Quoting huntsvle:


I agree...it's likely that the track will be similar...at least through the majority of the carribean. We'll see towards the western carribean.

@wunderman, in general that all looks like it could play out well, however, I think that your general track should be shifted a bit to the north with a little bit less of a NW curvature towards the end. I think that ultimately, the cone would be placed the same, but if that were a more official track, I would shift it north. I don't think synoptics favor a sharp turn to the NW like that.


well with that NW turn I did say

"ok I am expecting a trough to be over the Centrl US in about 120 hours and it digs down a bit while moving E bound, causing 92L to lift but at the end of the run. there seems to be a high that starts to build back in off of the SE US coast and may push it back WNW but that is way too unclear and too far out so I will leave track the way it is till later"

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ALERT ATCF MIL 92X XXX 120809000000
2012080900
15.0 320.4
15.1 313.6
100
14.9 320.4
090600
1208090500
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 090600
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9N 39.6W TO 15.1N 46.4W
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT
090400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 39.6W AND IS MOVING WEST AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC, APPROXIMATELY 950 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 78 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EXIST IN THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 100600Z.//9212080600 116N 225W 20
9212080606 116N 235W 20
9212080612 116N 245W 20
9212080618 116N 255W 20
9212080700 117N 266W 25
9212080706 118N 278W 25
9212080712 118N 296W 25
9212080718 121N 312W 25
9212080800 127N 325W 25
9212080806 133N 339W 25
9212080812 139N 354W 25
9212080818 143N 370W 25
9212080900 145N 386W 25

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


hmm a TCFA for 92L not surprised


hey guys even if 92L does devlop I do not sexpect it to rapidly develop (causing it to move N bound)

steady gains strength once it get to 45W hence you see in my model has it going a steady W-WNW track once it reaches 45W
Good evening everyone I see our storm coming off Africa looks real healthy. Sometime later on today we should see this thing in the water. and look what direction its going wsw away from the shear.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernie's flight level winds are now right at 100mph.


Hmmm, may have a hurricane on our hands again...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


well with that NW turn I did say

"ok I am expecting a trough to be over the Centrl US in about 120 hours and it digs down a bit while moving E bound, causing 92L to lift but at the end of the run. there seems to be a high that starts to build back in off of the SE US coast and may push it back WNW but that is way too unclear and too far out so I will leave track the way it is till later"



I know you did...but I wasn't saying the end part...I was saying in general. But i'm not arguing with you wunder...you know I take your side a lot.
Good night all - pleasant dreams
Quoting bigwes6844:
Good evening everyone I see our storm coming off Africa looks real healthy. Sometime later on today we should see this thing in the water. and look what direction its going wsw away from the shear.


May see 93L soon.
T.C.F.A.
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
14.93N/39.69W
Time: 05:23:00Z
Coordinates: 19.1833N 92.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,488 meters (~ 4,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 121° at 83 knots (From the ESE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.7°C* (~ 56.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)
2036. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:


May see 93L soon.


Stop it.

Everytime you have said that this year... "We may see ____ soon." We get a storm.

XD
Quoting huntsvle:


I know you did...but I wasn't saying the end part...I was saying in general. But i'm not arguing with you wunder...you know I take your side a lot.

oh ok you were talking in general ok I know you are not arguing with me and yes I know you take my side thank you

Quoting SSideBrac:
Good night all - pleasant dreams


right good night sweet dreams to you

Quoting tropicfreak:


May see 93L soon.

thinking the same thing too
Quoting tropicfreak:


May see 93L soon.
yss sir! as soon as later on this morning or afternoon. would not be surprised at all
Quoting JLPR2:


Stop it.

Everytime you have said that this year... "We may see ____ soon." We get a storm.

XD

last time I remembered I was doing the same lol
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I thought Dr. Masters came in yesterday and announced JFV's permanent ban? Why do we still talk of the so called PIA?

This is what he said yesterday:
964. Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology (Admin)
10:53 PM EDT on August 07, 2012 +36
I recorded 3 short segments for TWC this morning, which they will run over the next few days. The others were about El Nino and whether 6 storms this early in the year is a harbinger of an active season (probably not, but I do expect the early part of the season will be more active than the later part, due to El Nino.) I'll be doing 2 segments per week for the coming peak part of hurricane season, it looks like. The shot today was from my home office.

I banned JFV64.

Jeff Masters
2042. JLPR2
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

last time I remembered I was doing the same lol


He uses the exact same phrase and them bam! Invest and a storm thereafter. XD
Unless I missed something, Dr. Masters did not IP ban JFV. He banned someone impersonating JFV.
2044. JLPR2
Jeez, both ASCAT and OSCAT missed 92L...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


It's really easy to get around IP bans, I always have an IP blocker on for security reasons.


I've made a run at it, searched through thousands of posts, I can't find it however, it is there. It was when he was talking about his appearance on TWC and he said BTW I banned JFV24 or something like that. It's 1:40 going to bed lol, look for yourself.
Morning everyone, I saw the surprise TWO that put 92L at 70% and the wave off Africa still looks good.
92L:


African wave:
Quoting MississippiWx:


PINHOLE!

LOL
The CMC

Quoting Grothar:



As it looks now wunder, it most likely will be a Caribbean storm for the most part. Most models are trending that after it enters the Caribbean, it should start a NW motion due to some strong troughs moving down. (Hey, blog. Is this the part where I should say, "But things could change" just to cover myself?)


Grothar, I'm holding you to this comment as a friend. I want my chase!
Quoting RussianWinter:


What if the clock is ahead a few minutes...

Then what, hmmm?


Also, WISHCASTER!
then its right once a decade
Quoting MississippiWx:
Time: 05:23:00Z
Coordinates: 19.1833N 92.4167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.8 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,488 meters (~ 4,882 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 121° at 83 knots (From the ESE at ~ 95.4 mph)
Air Temp: 13.7°C* (~ 56.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 86 knots (~ 98.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 15 mm/hr (~ 0.59 in/hr)


NHC did mention that land friction may actually tighten up the core. Sheesh E is wasting no time at all.
The trolls are so few. If JFV is gone, then that is not a small thing. Great thing is, when the season is in full swing; trolls never have enough attention to stick around. Blog just moves too fast to satisfy them. Without the needed attention, trolls go POOF.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The CMC



well hello there athome. Nice to see you again.
Quoting MississippiWx:
Unless I missed something, Dr. Masters did not IP ban JFV. He banned someone impersonating JFV.


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, both ASCAT and OSCAT missed 92L...


Oh well maybe next time =D.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
The CMC



The CMC won't give it up, will it? It's dying for us to take a hit on the Northern Gulf Coast.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.


Wait, there were imposters?
Quoting huntsvle:


well hello there athome. Nice to see you again.


Hi Huntsvle. Nice to see you too. :)
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Really? Missed that part. I didn't know it was an imposter.


Yeah. Regardless, a troll is a troll is a troll. :-p

...Let their heads roll....
Quoting MississippiWx:


The CMC won't give it up, will it? It's dying for us to take a hit on the Northern Gulf Coast.


Yep, that's two storms in a row right at a week apart the CMC has a landfall at the gulf coast. I think it likes you mississippi. ;)
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?
Quoting huntsvle:


Yep, that's two storms in a row right at a week apart the CMC has a landfall at the gulf coast. I think it likes you mississippi. ;)


It has an odd way of showing its feelings then. :-)
Is it possible that the trough coming down through Texas into Louisianna can influence Ernesto to move more north than expected? Just curious the news tonight talked about a trough coming down which may bring drier air into our area. Made me wonder if it could influence Ernie also?

Please don't call me a wishcaster or troll I love you guys insight and respect you all. I am not a Met. only a fireman. Thanks in advance.
JFV was the worst. He was hateful to everyone, bar none. Many tried to reason with him, but it was fruitless. He was funny at times, but he was hateful in general. Enough hate in the world as it is. I really hope he doesn't continue on his current trajectory. Enough abuse in the world as it is. I love how this site is full of insightful members and the trolls are so few.
Quoting popartpete:
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?


If you see a dude named "Koritheman" here on the blog, that's a troll.

That's all you need to know. :-O
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah. Regardless, a troll is a troll is a troll. :-p

...Let their heads roll....



Could the real JFV be lurking among us though? Or was he long gone?
hmm NHC also wants to take 92L WSW too



yes I know this is old but still
Quoting wxchaser97:
Morning everyone, I saw the surprise TWO that put 92L at 70% and the wave off Africa still looks good.
92L:


African wave:
choo- choo. choo-choo!!!
AtHomeInTexas good to see you up and triumphing against sleep again. :)
Quoting Tribucanes:
JFV was the worst. He was hateful to everyone, bar none. Many tried to reason with him, but it was fruitless. He was funny at times, but he was hateful in general. Enough hate in the world as it is. I really hope he doesn't continue on his current trajectory. Enough abuse in the world as it is. I love how this site is full of insightful members and the trolls are so few.


He is getting his masters degree in political science. He will fit right in with the rest of the scumbag, conniving politicians that run our country.
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.8°N 93.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
2am TWO

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090548
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
HAVE CHANGE LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Quoting MississippiWx:


It has an odd way of showing its feelings then. :-)


LOL well i have some extra space at my apartment if anyone needs evacuated lol.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WOW is that pink really in the GOM? Thats not kool at all
70 mph? Really?
...ERNESTO STRENGTHENING AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...

1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 18.8°N 93.0°W
Moving: W at 16 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
getting there
Quoting MississippiWx:


If you see a dude named "Koritheman" here on the blog, that's a troll.

That's all you need to know. :-O


thats just mean
Kori is going to be working for the SPC or NOAA, so we just in general second guess and hate on his forecasts. He is often right, just disregard it and tell him otherwise. :) Kori is an excellent young forecaster; been cloudy for him in the deep south for awhile.
Quoting MississippiWx:


He is getting his masters degree in political science. He will fit right in with the rest of the scumbag, conniving politicians that run our country.


Ouch...glad I changed my major before I got a degree or you'd be saying mean things about me too... :-\
2083. Kumo
Quoting popartpete:
What exactly does a "troll" do? Who are considered trolls?


"In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)

Quoting huntsvle:


Ouch...glad I changed my major before I got a degree or you'd be saying mean things about me too... :-\


LOL. Maybe you would have been different.

BTW, thanks for offering shelter if a hurricane comes roaring. LOL.
wow Ernesto in the west Caribbean has trouble intensifying now is half over land and it does
Quoting KoritheMan:




Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?
Quoting Kumo:


"In Internet slang, a troll is someone who posts inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community, such as an online discussion forum, chat room, or blog, with the primary intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion."

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)



whoa!! i had NOOOO idea there was a real definition.......*blink blink*
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


thats just mean


Lol. Ok, ok. You're right.

KoritheMan is not a troll.
Some of my posts keep not posting.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. Ok, ok. You're right.

KoritheMan is not a troll.


Hes mean though :p
Quoting floridaT:
wow Ernesto in the west Caribbean has trouble intensifying now is half over land and it does

As Dr Masters said in his video. It's the shape of the area that makes systems spin up quickly.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?



He's just full of himself.
Quoting AussieStorm:

As Dr Masters said in his video. It's the shape of the area that makes systems spin up quickly.

hey Aussie can you post the vid I did not get to see it yet
Quoting RussianWinter:


Now that I think about it...

What kind of man is a...

Korithe Man? Is there some nation called Korithea?


Yes. I'm the ruler of said nation.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Hes mean though :p


Why thank you. ;)
Quoting Tribucanes:
JFV going for political science..............oh my, where do I start? I love people and treat them with respect, irregardless or where or who they are in life. JFV will fit in much better than I ever could in the political science realm. He has the ability to do what suits him best, irregardless of whom he hurts. I would gladly be a slave to advance those less than I. He may reach great riches and stack his things up so high. I will always be happier.


I don't think you can judge the happiness of a man you don't know.

And that's all I have to say about that.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Some of my posts keep not posting.


Good. I don't think they are worth being posted anyway. :P
Quoting Tribucanes:
JFV was the worst. He was hateful to everyone, bar none. Many tried to reason with him, but it was fruitless. He was funny at times, but he was hateful in general. Enough hate in the world as it is. I really hope he doesn't continue on his current trajectory. Enough abuse in the world as it is. I love how this site is full of insightful members and the trolls are so few.


JFV in 2009 send explicit messages to several female bloggers IIRC under PresidentalElection or something of the sorts. I almost got him to come on and apologize a few weeks ago but of course, he flipped out on everyone and got himself banned. Guy has serious anger issues.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey Aussie can you post the vid I did not get to see it yet

I read your mind, I was looking for it even before I read your comment.

Did anyone see my question in comment 2064?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


JFV in 2009 send explicit messages to several female bloggers IIRC under PresidentalElection or something of the sorts. I almost got him to come on and apologize a few weeks ago but of course, he flipped out on everyone and got himself banned. Guy has serious anger issues.



I am "friends" with him on Facebook and he posts about a tropical storm coming his way with massive excitement in his words.
Quoting firematt255:
Did anyone see my question in comment 2064?


At this point, that is highly unlikely. Ernestos path is pretty well set on a generally westward track. A trough in texas is some miles away and seeing as it's not a large scale system...it won't really have any effect on Texas. Your better bet is to watch the other storms that are firing up and see what those do. You can relax off ernie though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes. I'm the ruler of said nation.


Lulz, you crack me up.

Back on topic though, is there any circulation under the sheared convection of Mrs. Florence?

I have a guess of where the center might be (around 60 west) but I am not sure.
Also, for those declaring a wsw movement on 92L, it could be my eyes but on satellite this thing made a northerly jog in the last one and a half hours or so.
So Kori is mean, full of himself, young, and smart. Oh how I hate me some Kori! :) Kori is up there with Levi and a few others here for future potential. I'm so old, I'm only hoping for the next Gandolf roll in Lord Of The Rings IIII. Grothar will be playing the 1000 year old talking tree.
Thanks huntsvle. Goodnight all hope it stays quite tonight for me.
Quoting RussianWinter:
Also, for those declaring a wsw movement on 92L, it could be my eyes but on satellite this thing made a northerly jog in the last one and a half hours or so.


I don't see that
Quoting RussianWinter:


Lulz, you crack me up.

Back on topic though, is there any circulation under the sheared convection of Mrs. Florence?

I have a guess of where the center might be (around 60 west) but I am not sure.
If there is there is 30knt shear over it so you couldn't get anything out of it anyway.
Quoting Tribucanes:
So Kori is mean, full of himself, young, and smart. Oh how I hate me some Kori! :) Kori is up there with Levi and a few others here for future potential. I'm so old, I'm only hoping for the next Gandolf roll in Lord Of The Rings IIII. Grothar will be playing the 1000 year old talking tree.


I think you are more suited to play the Saruman type.
Quoting Tribucanes:
So Kori is mean, full of himself, young, and smart. Oh how I hate me some Kori! :) Kori is up there with Levi and a few others here for future potential. I'm so old, I'm only hoping for the next Gandolf roll in Lord Of The Rings IIII. Grothar will be playing the 1000 year old talking tree.


BAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAA
And in other World Weather News.....



Quoting huntsvle:


I don't see that


Damn you're right, it's getting late and my eyes are playing tricks on me. It's the outflow thats going north, not the CoC. >.<
Quoting AussieStorm:
And in other World Weather News.....



Makes you wonder if there are any countries out there that are well adapted for floods....
Flo seems to have a lot more convection over the past hour.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Damn you're right, it's getting late and my eyes are playing tricks on me. It's the outflow thats going north, not the CoC. >.<


When it's late, as a third shifter...i'm in my "early afternoon"
Quoting RussianWinter:
Also, for those declaring a wsw movement on 92L, it could be my eyes but on satellite this thing made a northerly jog in the last one and a half hours or so.

yep that is definitly you eyes cause its moving WSW and now maybe at a little faster pace I'd say the center looks to be somewhere around 13.5N 39.5W
Quoting popartpete:
Flo seems have a lot more convection over the past hour.


I'll give you a cookie if you find the circulation.
2120. Kumo
Quoting huntsvle:


whoa!! i had NOOOO idea there was a real definition.......*blink blink*


hehe, I'm willing to bet a psych major contributed to that article.

Thanks for the info from #2103, it answered one of my questions I've had about the tropics today. :)
RussianWinter, you stated I have no ability to state JFV's state of being. Anyone who treats others as he does is not a happy person to any extent. A person who gets there jollies as such, trust me; is a very miserable person. Those who gain pleasure from other's pain are very very transparent.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Damn you're right, it's getting late and my eyes are playing tricks on me. It's the outflow thats going north, not the CoC. >.<

comrad please take a nap if you must cause we would not like it if you now see it moving NE with a pony riding on top lol
Quoting RussianWinter:


I'll give you a cookie if you find the circulation.


indeed...it's pretty open at this point.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

comrad please take a nap if you must cause we would not like it if you now see it moving NE with a pony riding on top lol


wunder...enough about your dreams...time to get back to work.. geez.
Quoting RussianWinter:


Makes you wonder if there are any countries out there that are well adapted for floods....

They had all there August rain in 1 day. In fact, up until the 7th they had there August average in the days prior to the heavy downpour on the 7th, which was 725mm or 28.54inches.
Quoting RussianWinter:


I'll give you a cookie if you find the circulation.

There really is no circulation, its a low pressure trough with convection in a high shear environment.
No one gets a cookie.

2. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.
2127. emguy
Never wish anything on anybody, but with yet another trough coming down, waned to wait and see Ernesto's next move. Obviusly, there was enough ridging there to shft him west, and as the new trough comes in, it will obviousy pass him to the north as he makes a move along the southern BOC coast. Farewell Tennacous E, please do not flood them folks in your path over Mexico.

Lots of other things to watch out there, for now, will keep a quiet eye on it all.
Had to google Saruman, RussianWinter. LOL, your a thinker here who's not from the States. That's a nice addition to the think tank here. How do you feel about the Cold War that is back on hot? JK(PM me if you really wish to answer that question.) Your opinions are often not the norm RussianWinter, I can relate. Glad to have you here.
Quoting huntsvle:


indeed...it's pretty open at this point.

As I stated earlier. Ex-Flo has got that nice "V" shape to it like all nice T-wave do.
I'd say ita full fledge Tropical Wave Florence
here is the new advisory for it lolx10000000
Tropical Wave Florence

...FLORENCE IS HOPELESS AND NOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

1:00 AM EST Thu Aug 9
Location: 17.0N 61.0W TO 24.0N 56.0W
Moving: W-NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: N/A mb
Max sustained: 15-20 mph

Quoting huntsvle:


wunder...enough about your dreams...time to get back to work.. geez.

no I'm not dreeaming at all
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'd say ita full fledge Tropical Wave Florence
here is the new advisory for it lolx10000000
Tropical Wave Florence

...FLORENCE IS HOPELESS AND NOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

1:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 9
Location: 17.0°N 61.0°W TO 24.0°N 56.0°W
Moving: W-NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: N/A mb
Max sustained: 15-20 mph


Why they still issuing advisories for it? kinda weird... Boredom?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why they still issuing advisories for it? kinda weird... Boredom?

they stopped I just made it up
Goodnight all, I wish I hadn't had the displeasure to know many, many like JFV. So many fit his mold; watch housewives of anything, and you know well that society encourages this behavior now in our young women and men. What was gained through great sacrifice,through many generations, can be lost in one; who has forgotten all that was sacrificed. Technology is getting us there all the more quickly. Idols to ourselves, we fall and can do no else. Faster and faster now Keeper.
CMC 132 hrs. out system off NC Coast:



CMC 240 hrs. out 92L approaching NOLA:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
CMC 132 hrs. out system off NC Coast:



CMC 240 hrs. out 92L approaching NOLA:



uhhhhh...ic.
Quoting huntsvle:


uhhhhh...ic.


What are you doing in your picture? You look like a pilot, but the caption says "on the truck". Just curious. Lol.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'd say ita full fledge Tropical Wave Florence
here is the new advisory for it lolx10000000
Tropical Wave Florence

...FLORENCE IS HOPELESS AND NOW MOVING MORE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

1:00 AM EST Thu Aug 9
Location: 17.0�N 61.0�W TO 24.0�N 56.0�W
Moving: W-NW at 20 mph
Min pressure: N/A mb
Max sustained: 15-20 mph



That is a ban-able offence. I would remove it.
Quoting MississippiWx:


What are you doing in your picture? You look like a pilot, but the caption says "on the truck". Just curious. Lol.


I was doing an ems ridealong.
Quoting huntsvle:


I was doing an ems ridealong.


Ah, ok. Just had to ask since I was confused. Lol.
HWRF 102 hrs. out system off the coast of Tampa Bay:

I was wondering, what do you all take about in winter, any snowstorms or is this more of a "downtime"?
Also Ernesto is looking better but running out of time over water and the floater for Florence was taken down again.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I was wondering, what do you all take about in winter, any snowstorms or is this more of a "downtime"?
Also Ernesto is looking better but running out of time over water and the floater for Florence was taken down again.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO 24N56W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND NOW IT INTERACTS WITH A
CENTRAL ATLC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WHICH IS
PROVIDING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W.
I think 92L will be like Hurricane Gustav from 75W onward, TS Fay from 75W-80W but more WNW-NW track taking it to AL,MISS,NOLA and no fancy track at the end,Hurricane Ivan from 75W onward to first US land fall and bring up the track before 75W further N, and last Hurricane Charley from 70W to 80W bring the rest of the track in the GOM like Gustav and the track E of 70W further N






yes guys this is all wild guessing but just putting that out there
Quoting AussieStorm:


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N61W TO 24N56W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND NOW IT INTERACTS WITH A
CENTRAL ATLC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH WHICH IS
PROVIDING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 56W-63W.

Yup, I was just saying that the floater was finally taken down.
850 mb. vort:



Lower Convergence:



Wind Shear:



Lower Level Winds:

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think 92L will be like Hurricane Gustav from 75W onward, TS Fay from 75W-80W but more WNW-NW track taking it to AL,MISS,NOLA and no fancy track at the end,Hurricane Ivan from 75W onward to first US land fall and bring up the track before 75W further N, and last Hurricane Charley from 70W to 80W bring the rest of the track in the GOM like Gustav and the track E of 70W further N






yes guys this is all wil guessing but just putting that out there


that completely contradicts your forecast track...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
HWRF 102 hrs. out system off the coast of Tampa Bay:


please can you post the link please
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

please can you post the link please


Link
Quoting huntsvle:


that completely contradicts your forecast track...

thats why I call it wild guessing
Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


thanks
Good night/morning everyone, Ernesto should be a hurricane soon.
Water Vapor of 92L:

AVN of Ernesto:

Arcticane: Massive Storm Batters Melting Sea Ice


Whoever said watching the Arctic during the melting season is boring, needs to put his glasses on. After a record low reflectivity of the Greenland ice sheet (with accompanying floodings on the west coast of Greenland), the calving of another enormous iceberg from Petermann Glacier, and the general rapid decline of Arctic sea ice despite adverse weather patterns, we can now add to the 2012 melting season bonanza the appearance of a cyclone the likes of which are rarely seen in winter, let alone in summer.
The storm came in from Siberia, intensified and then positioned itself over the central Arctic, reaching sea level pressures of below 965 mb in the storm’s centre, engendering 20 knot winds and 50 mph wind gusts Link
nice convection appearing there.
The wave everyone is talking about is almost in the water! Here we go!
Quoting bigwes6844:
The wave everyone is talking about is almost in the water! Here we go!


im pretty certain they'll have an invest on that asap.
I dunno why I bother posting these so late at night when everyone's asleep and will miss them, but I just did another blog.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I dunno why I bother posting these so late at night when everyone's asleep and will miss them, but I just did another blog.


I'M STILL HERE!!! although, you're quite right...it is rather quiet in here tonight, moreso than other nights.
Quoting huntsvle:


I'M STILL HERE!!! although, you're quite right...it is rather quiet in here tonight, moreso than other nights.


Hello fellow late nighter. Feels good bruh.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hello fellow late nighter. Feels good bruh.


LOL, i suppose. I'm a thirdshifter so this is my daytime. LOL.
Quoting huntsvle:


im pretty certain they'll have an invest on that asap.
yep it should be fully in the water now because that image was an hour ago
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hello fellow late nighter. Feels good bruh.


Can a stronger TC feed off of a weaker one? Or converge? like something more on a mesoscale pattern?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I dunno why I bother posting these so late at night when everyone's asleep and will miss them, but I just did another blog.
im here always late! lol
I see the late night crew is in full swing, ha.

I work 5pm-5am when I'm not off.
Quoting KoritheMan:
I dunno why I bother posting these so late at night when everyone's asleep and will miss them, but I just did another blog.


I agree with your forcast on 92L, nice blog!
Quoting PRweatherWatcher10:


I agree with your forcast on 92L, nice blog!


ditto...i was hoping you would've posted something about the wave coming off Africa...but I suppose I can survive until your next blog.
2173. Kumo
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Arcticane: Massive Storm Batters Melting Sea Ice


Whoever said watching the Arctic during the melting season is boring, needs to put his glasses on. After a record low reflectivity of the Greenland ice sheet (with accompanying floodings on the west coast of Greenland), the calving of another enormous iceberg from Petermann Glacier, and the general rapid decline of Arctic sea ice despite adverse weather patterns, we can now add to the 2012 melting season bonanza the appearance of a cyclone the likes of which are rarely seen in winter, let alone in summer.
The storm came in from Siberia, intensified and then positioned itself over the central Arctic, reaching sea level pressures of below 965 mb in the storm’s centre, engendering 20 knot winds and 50 mph wind gusts Link


I remember seeing an image recently of how dirty the Greenland ice sheet is getting, scary stuff. I wonder how this is going to end up affecting our weather patterns in the future.



Quoting huntsvle:


Can a stronger TC feed off of a weaker one? Or converge? like something more on a mesoscale pattern?


It may cause a local invigoration in rainbands, but the overall effect would be negligible.
Quoting bigwes6844:
im here always late! lol


lol, hey Wes.
Quoting huntsvle:


ditto...i was hoping you would've posted something about the wave coming off Africa...but I suppose I can survive until your next blog.


I've been monitoring it, but I'm not going to mention a system that's overland. Just my policy. :P
Quoting KoritheMan:
I dunno why I bother posting these so late at night when everyone's asleep and will miss them, but I just did another blog.


Kori, what's your oppinion on 92L's would be approach to the Caribbean? Low or high? I feel it might go above PR, but that's just my feeling.
Quoting PRweatherWatcher10:


Kori, what's your oppinion on 92L's would be approach to the Caribbean? Low or high? I feel it might go above PR, but that's just my feeling.


I'd say 70%. Seems a bit unlikely it would do that barring rapid development. The earlier runs of the BAM Deep were predicated on that as well.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Arcticane: Massive Storm Batters Melting Sea Ice


Whoever said watching the Arctic during the melting season is boring, needs to put his glasses on. After a record low reflectivity of the Greenland ice sheet (with accompanying floodings on the west coast of Greenland), the calving of another enormous iceberg from Petermann Glacier, and the general rapid decline of Arctic sea ice despite adverse weather patterns, we can now add to the 2012 melting season bonanza the appearance of a cyclone the likes of which are rarely seen in winter, let alone in summer.
The storm came in from Siberia, intensified and then positioned itself over the central Arctic, reaching sea level pressures of below 965 mb in the storm’s centre, engendering 20 knot winds and 50 mph wind gusts Link

Thanks for that comment.
Doubtless the first of many of this kind of event.
A whole new study of Arctic weather might be needed soon, after all ice is quite boring but when it melts things become a lot more interesting!
Quoting KoritheMan:


lol, hey Wes.
yes sir! wats good kori. looks like an exciting week for us i see
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd say 70%. Seems a bit unlikely it would do that barring rapid development. The earlier runs of the BAM Deep were predicated on that as well.
so kori u thinking that this storm may ride north of PR and cuba?
Quoting bigwes6844:
so kori u thinking that this storm may ride north of PR and cuba?


No. I meant that it will go into the Caribbean.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good night/morning everyone, Ernesto should be a hurricane soon.


Looks like he wants to make a mess on the whole southern gulf coast edging along like that. A lot of messy beaches surely.

Meanwhile, the Tropical Wave is now moving into the Atlantic
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. I meant that it will go into the Caribbean.
MY BAD I HAD DOSED OFF. BUT U THINK THAT HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH?
Quoting KoritheMan:


It may cause a local invigoration in rainbands, but the overall effect would be negligible.


Kori, I only mentioned it because it appeared (at that time in the SAT loops) that something like that might be happening. I know with mesoscales systems that an entire storms energy can be absorbed...I was just curious.
1722 HurricaneHunterJoe: [inre the previous mapping] I don't think that's happening.

Good eye. 9August12amGMT's MaxSusWinds of 45knots was re-evaluated&altered to 55knots
Its Position of 18.7n91.5w was re-evaluated&altered to 18.8n91.5w ...so...
Its Vector of 260.2*West@6.7mph(10.7km/h) must be corrected to 270.1*West@6.6mph(10.5km/h)
and similarly, the straightline projection.

Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 9August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 994millibars to 993millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 55knots(63mph)102km/h to 60knots(69mph)111km/h
Vector changed from 270.1*West@6.6mph(10.5km/h) to 270.3*West@17.5mph(28.1km/h)

VER-Veracruz :: MTT-Coatzacoalcos : CME-Ciudad del Carmen :: CTM-Chetumal

The easternmost dot on the connected line-segments is where Ernesto became a Hurricane
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to a coastline
8August3:15amGMT: H.Ernesto made landfall near Mahahual,CostaMaya
8August6amGMT: H.Ernesto passed within ~20miles to ~33kilometres north of Chetumal
8August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed toward skimming over the northern shoreline of LagunaTerminos on its way to the Bay of Campeche
8August6pmGMT: Same
9August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto (barely) entered the Bay of Campeche
9August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading toward passage over Alverado in ~6hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste ctm-18.8n88.3w, cme, ver, mtt, paz, 18.5n85.5w-18.7n87.1w, 18.7n87.1w-18.8n88.3w, 18.8n88.3w-18.8n89.8w, 18.8n89.8w-18.8n90.9w, 18.8n90.9w-18.8n91.5w, 18.8n91.5w-18.8n93.1w, 18.8n91.5w-18.77n95.723w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
Quoting bigwes6844:
MY BAD I HAD DOSED OFF. BUT U THINK THAT HIGH WILL KEEP IT SOUTH?


The high looks a little weaker this time around, but a more southern track ala Ernesto is still possible if the system stays weak.
LinkA nd there you have it, Wont encounter any land other then the Cape Verde Islands for the next week or so...
Koritheman I enjoyed your update.Great work.This blog has so much talent on it.I hope the Gulf Coast is spared this year.But with what everyone is saying I am a little worried for us.
2191. SLU
hmmm ... the EURO has now stepped in line with the reliable GFS on taking 92L into the Caribbean ...
2192. LargoFl
...............................................go od morning folks!!..hmmm 92L up to 70% now..exFlorence still at 0% chance.............another interesting week ahead for us
2193. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
...............................................go od morning folks!!..hmmm 92L up to 70% now..exFlorence still at 0% chance.............another interesting week ahead for us
Yes it does look to be that way Largo.I hope this one dont track like Ernesto did.I dont think the blog could handle that.
2195. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
It seems the GFS wants to put it in the Western Carribean as it did with Ernesto.
2197. LargoFl
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Yes it does look to be that way Largo.I hope this one dont track like Ernesto did.I dont think the blog could handle that.
.good morning, lol yes I guess this coming week will have heavy posting in here,just hope this new one doesnt go into the gulf.
2198. LargoFl
Quoting mrsalagranny:
It seems the GFS wants to put it in the Western Carribean as it did with Ernesto.
,good chance the GFS is right..a track like ernesto, but, things can change fast and this one is still far away
Quoting LargoFl:
.good morning, lol yes I guess this coming week will have heavy posting in here,just hope this new one doesnt go into the gulf.
Me too Largo.It is like a hot tub in the GOM.The waters have been untouched.
2200. LargoFl
morning
another weekend of anxiety for st lucia as tropical storm Gordon poses a threat to st lucia. SLU what are your thoughts this time?
2202. LargoFl
2203. LargoFl
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A WEST TO WEST-
SOUTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
ERNESTO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
MAKE LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Well off to work i go.Thanks Largo for responding to my posts you are a sweetie.Keep an eye on 92L for me.Have a Blessed day everyone.
2205. LargoFl
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Well off to work i go.Thanks Largo for responding to my posts you are a sweetie.Keep an eye on 92L for me.Have a Blessed day everyone.
..ok have a great day
2206. LargoFl
HIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING OR
PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A LOT OF
RAIN IN RECENT DAYS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS.
Just west of Sydney is the Blue Mountains.
They are white tonight covered in snow.
2208. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
another weekend of anxiety for st lucia as tropical storm Gordon poses a threat to st lucia. SLU what are your thoughts this time?


Yes .. the models are coming into agreement on a possible tropical cyclone in the Windwards this weekend ...
TAFB has introduced the African Wave at the 06z Analysis.

2210. WxLogic
Good Morning
2211. LargoFl
...........................I am wondering, yesterday some models were putting a storm in the gulf off tampa bay in about 100 hours...where is this coming from? so we can watch it..anyone know?
Quoting LargoFl:
dont like the bams track at all!
will monitor it as i may have to call an emergency meeting of the gros islet disaster committee. thanks again for your thoughts
Quoting LargoFl:
largo how do u copy and paste the models from off here on the website. I never can do it
2215. pcola57
<
2216. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
largo how do u copy and paste the models from off here on the website. I never can do it
.hi, im not too good at the models, sometimes i can get it most times not
Quoting LargoFl:
.hi, im not too good at the models, sometimes i can get it most times not
lol! i meant like how do u copy the models from off here from 92L. everytime i do it, it wont let me post it
2218. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
largo how do u copy and paste the models from off here on the website. I never can do it
..for a pic i just click on it..then copy the url...or..i scroll down to properties and click that..control button makes it blue and the C button captures it...again..im not real good at computers..alot here are so much better but..im learning
2219. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
lol! i meant like how do u copy the models from off here from 92L. everytime i do it, it wont let me post it
..oh i just go to a site where the tracks are already posted then copy that..i know..sometimes it wont let me post it here either
2220. WxLogic
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................I am wondering, yesterday some models were putting a storm in the gulf off tampa bay in about 100 hours...where is this coming from? so we can watch it..anyone know?


They were trying to develop a SFC low reflection of the TUTT in the central Carib with the assistance of P09L from what I was able to discern.
2222. LargoFl
Quoting WxLogic:


They were trying to develop a SFC low reflection of the TUTT in the central Carib with the assistance of P09L from what I was able to discern.
..ok i notice that blow up in the islands is still there this morning, have to watch that one then..thanks
Quoting LargoFl:
..oh i just go to a site where the tracks are already posted then copy that..i know..sometimes it wont let me post it here either
Thanks Largo man! i got it! I wentto properties and copy it. thanks again and goodnight everyone or should i say morning. lol
2224. LargoFl
Quoting bigwes6844:
...there you go wes you got it
Quoting bigwes6844:
dont like the bams track at all!


someone was mentioning yesterday how they preferred the BAMM track...but with the level of the storm as is...the BAMS is actually probably a bit more realistic...and since both the GFS and Euro seem to verify that, the consensus of those is about where i'd put a track if I was going to. I think earlier runs of the AVNI were looking pretty likely. I'm not too convinced that this storm will ride as far south as ernesto did. That said, I wouldn't exactly say they're coming for constant over land, but I think there will be more of a brushing blow to the carribean islands than what Ernesto gave.....just my thoughts.
2226. LargoFl
................................................. whew..alot of area's to watch this week huh
2227. pcola57
<
Quoting huntsvle:


that completely contradicts your forecast track...
I think its Gordon-not Gustav.
Ok Were about 30 to 45 minutes away from the new TWO

so heres a poll

1. What will Invest 92L be at
A. 70 %
B. 80 %
C. 90%
D. 100 % or T.D 6

2. What will the Tropical Wave in the Cape verde area be

A. 20 %
b. 40 %
c. 60 %
d. 80 % or above
e. somewhere in between
2230. LargoFl
whew..heat index today up to 106 around Tampa bay area..drink lots of water.............
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TODAY. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF I-75 FROM THE
TAMPA AREA NORTH AND ALONG I-75 FROM PUNTA GORDA SOUTH THROUGH
FORT MYERS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S TODAY WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN
100 AND 106 DEGREES TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR OR ABOVE 100
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.
G'mornin' all. I'm content to have "Gordon-to-be" take the low-road and follow Earnesto.
2233. LargoFl
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin' all. I'm content to have "Gordon-to-be" take the low-road and follow Earnesto.
..agreed lol
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................I am wondering, yesterday some models were putting a storm in the gulf off tampa bay in about 100 hours...where is this coming from? so we can watch it..anyone know?


coming from the east thru the straits then up to the ne
crossing florida
2235. LargoFl
..i dunno, ex florence looks better this morning, something to watch, has flare ups off and on
Good right up on Ernesto making landfall in Yucatan Peninsular.

Landfall pressure was little bit less than 975mb.
2237. LargoFl
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:


coming from the east thru the straits then up to the ne
crossing florida
ok thanks, we surely dont need one in the gulf, waters are hot
2238. LargoFl
2239. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
will monitor it as i may have to call an emergency meeting of the gros islet disaster committee. thanks again for your thoughts


as always
Quoting huntsvle:


someone was mentioning yesterday how they preferred the BAMM track...but with the level of the storm as is...the BAMS is actually probably a bit more realistic...and since both the GFS and Euro seem to verify that, the consensus of those is about where i'd put a track if I was going to. I think earlier runs of the AVNI were looking pretty likely. I'm not too convinced that this storm will ride as far south as ernesto did. That said, I wouldn't exactly say they're coming for constant over land, but I think there will be more of a brushing blow to the carribean islands than what Ernesto gave.....just my thoughts.


I'm going with the BAM track for this one too...sorry GFS!
2242. pottery
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin' all. I'm content to have "Gordon-to-be" take the low-road and follow Earnesto.

The Islanders have taken note of this comment, and hope you have a terrible day.

heheheheheh
starting.to.figure.itself.out...92
Looks like 92L will take a track similar to Ernesto....just farther north in the Caribbean.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Ok Were about 30 to 45 minutes away from the new TWO

so heres a poll

1. What will Invest 92L be at
A. 70 %
B. 80 %
C. 90%
D. 100 % or T.D 6

2. What will the Tropical Wave in the Cape verde area be

A. 20 %
b. 40 %
c. 60 %
d. 80 % or above
e. somewhere in between


1. A

2. B


Don't think that southerly dip has helped 92L much? Maybe it's just waking up? LOL

Looks like ex-Flo is trying to fire up again too, even if the circulation's opened up...she doesn't wanna give up yet
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Ok Were about 30 to 45 minutes away from the new TWO

so heres a poll

1. What will Invest 92L be at
A. 70 %
B. 80 %
C. 90%
D. 100 % or T.D 6

2. What will the Tropical Wave in the Cape verde area be

A. 20 %
b. 40 %
c. 60 %
d. 80 % or above
e. somewhere in between

70% and none.
Quoting Waltanater:

70% and none.

None? that makes no since
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


1. A

2. B


Don't think that southerly dip has helped 92L much?

I said that last night but was shouted down big time. mmmmmmmm.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like 92L will take a track similar to Ernesto....just farther north in the Caribbean.


I said that also last night and was shouted down again. mmmmmm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like 92L will take a track similar to Ernesto....just farther north in the Caribbean.
Agreed. There will be a more northerly component to its track.
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

None? that makes no since
No, it does make sense. I don't think it will be any of the choices. Hence, "none"...ie less than 20%. Thanks.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Good Morning, would be beneficial if weak tropical system went north thru South Texas into Center of the Country, have a great day everyone!
There needs to be a new blog. The data is outdated already for 92L.
i dont poll on thursday its bad for you
Quoting AussieStorm:

I said that last night but was shouted down big time. mmmmmmmm.



I said that also last night and was shouted down again. mmmmmm


Hahaha oh well, we'll be shouted down together then! LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont poll on thursday its bad for you

leave his poll alone, we have no idea where his poll has been. lol
Who's F5'ing the NHC website right now????
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Ok Were about 30 to 45 minutes away from the new TWO

so heres a poll

1. What will Invest 92L be at
A. 70 %
B. 80 %
C. 90%
D. 100 % or T.D 6

2. What will the Tropical Wave in the Cape verde area be

A. 20 %
b. 40 %
c. 60 %
d. 80 % or above
e. somewhere in between


1: B

2: A/B
Morning everyone. Thought I would check in before I run off to work. I noticed people were getting excited about 92L. Don't get too excited because 850 mb vorticity values aren't exceptionally great (which means probably no closed circulation), and dry air is just eating a lot of the convection up. A depression could certainly still form, but just not in the next couple advisories.

Quoting AussieStorm:

leave his poll alone, we have no idea where his poll has been. lol



ok will do may be its been in the bath room some where
Time: 11:23:00Z
Coordinates: 20.3N 92.6833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 725.0 mb (~ 21.41 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,825 meters (~ 9,268 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.7 mb (~ 29.73 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 107° at 45 knots (From the ESE at ~ 51.7 mph)
Air Temp: 11.4°C (~ 52.5°F)
Dew Pt: -1.3°C (~ 29.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Link


92L is moving south-west at a good pace this morning
Quoting Waltanater:
Agreed. There will be a more northerly component to its track.

ha ha and I'm the one thats been saying it all along now more and more people now agree with me
Good morning! Both the CMC and NAM are now bringing a slug of very heavy rains up from the eastern Gulf from a Tropical Wave that is moving across eastern Cuba right now.



92L on the CMC

92L by 240HR
Poll:

1: Ex Flo
Will she go
A) SW to St Jhon/St croix
B) S and drift
C) W into Bahamas/Cuba
D) NW to SC
E) N to recurve
What % will she get up to?
A) 0%
B) 10%
C) 20%
D) 30%
E) higher
Quoting superpete:
Link


92L is moving south-west at a good pace this morning

I said it before 92L will move WSW

for the poll I say B and A maybe B but normaly when systems come off the African coast and it is a storm developer it starts at 20% so... you know...
Time: 11:35:30Z
Coordinates: 19.6667N 93.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 841.8 mb (~ 24.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,528 meters (~ 5,013 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.7 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 60 knots (From the ESE at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp: 15.6°C (~ 60.1°F)
Dew Pt: 9.6°C (~ 49.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 44 knots (~ 50.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 14 mm/hr (~ 0.55 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Models that are 10 days out just serve to scare people. Beyond 5 days they are of little real value. I don't worry until the cone of doom is on the area until 72 hours or in.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I said that last night but was shouted down big time. mmmmmmmm.



I said that also last night and was shouted down again. mmmmmm
The GFS has 92l further north then ernesto,which in the outcome may be a Texas gulf coast storm.
54HR

72HR


Quoting ironbanks:
Models that are 10 days out just serve to scare people. Beyond 5 days they are of little real value. I don't worry until the cone of doom is on the area until 72 hours or in.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


split off from ernie?
CMC may be on to something...
you are correct.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Poll:

1: Ex Flo
Will she go
A) SW to St Jhon/St croix
B) S and drift
C) W into Bahamas/Cuba
D) NW to SC
E) N to recurve
What % will she get up to?
A) 0%
B) 10%
C) 20%
D) 30%
E) higher

kinda C but makes it just off of Fl then NEward too SC and up and out
as A or PRE-A
0% or nothing at all
92L Still 70% and Ex-Florence 0%

Note: if you go on the NHC outlook and see the update time thats for ernesto not the TWO so dont freak out its not out yet...
Quoting AussieStorm:
92L Still 70% and Ex-Florence 0%

|new TWO hasnt come out just yet
000
WTNT35 KNHC 091156
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
700 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012

...ERNESTO ABOUT TO CROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 94.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VERACRUZ TO CHILITEPEC MEXICO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF VERACRUZ TO BARRA DE NAUTLA
* EAST OF CHILITEPEC TO CAMPECHE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER LAND WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SINCE ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND
SHORTLY...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TABASCO...PUEBLA...AND
OAXACA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ERNESTO
IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS MORNING.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS LIKELY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting AussieStorm:
92L Still 70% and Ex-Florence 0%


thats not it it ain't in yet thats still for 2am
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
|new TWO hasnt come out just yet

Check the time on the image.... 7:57AM EDT
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ha ha and I'm the one thats been saying it all along now more and more people now agree with me
Sorry, I hadn't really noticed your take on it. If that's the case, good insight then. You think it may impact US anywhere?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Check the time on the image.... 7:57AM EDT

then check the graphical, it hasnt come out yet... thats for ernesto...
Quoting AussieStorm:

Check the time on the image.... 7:57AM EDT
So 70% and none then. LOL
Quoting dfwstormwatch:

then check the graphical, it hasnt come out yet... thats for ernesto...

Why don't they update them both at same time, not one before the other??
Quoting Waltanater:
So 70% and none then. LOL

nope new TWO not out yet
Quoting AussieStorm:

Why don't they update them both at same time, not one before the other??

not sure, the NHC can be strange sometimes
Quoting AussieStorm:
92L Still 70% and Ex-Florence 0%






the two is not out yet
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF FLORENCE...IS LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Who is going to post the new TWO???
Now its official
No change.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 091204
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 94.0W AT 09/1200
UTC OR ABOUT 35 NM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MOVING WSW AT
11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN
90W-98W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N41W TO 19N37W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N39W.
A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED
BETWEEN 34W-42W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING
SW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 39W-42W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD 13 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N11W TO 18N12W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS AFRICA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
WHILE THIS CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
600-850 MB...THE ONLY APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N12W ACCORDING TO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W AFRICA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS HAVE
BEEN DOWNWARD INTENSITY WISE THE PAST 6 HOURS...A COMPLEX OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 13W-19W...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND W
AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 10W-16W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 26N57W MOVING W-NW AT 15
KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE ACROSS
THE EASTERN ATLC EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND NOW IT INTERACTS WITH A
CENTRAL ATLC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH ALONG 26N
WHICH IS PROVIDING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 57W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N76W TO 22N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 69W-79W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN
70W-78W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W WHICH IS
PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO
15N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W
TO 06N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-11N BETWEEN
43W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF
THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL
STORM ERNESTO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 24N94W. AT THE SURFACE...THE
PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 23N
BETWEEN 90W-97W. N OF 23N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
28N EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 27N96W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESULT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N
OF 29N. MUCH OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG
28N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA NEAR 19N77W AND IS
CONTINUING TO PULL A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
MOISTURE FROM ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG
19N87W TO 13N80W TO 17N72W. THIS MOISTURE...WHILE NOT PRODUCING
ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 80W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. A FEW ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
13N W OF 76W AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W APPROACHES.
OTHERWISE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
FORCING OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CONTINUING TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AT
TIMES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH THE HIGH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N66W
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
30N60W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N81W. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
FROM 31N-34N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
S OF 26N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 19N77W THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AS WELL AS
THE BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 66W-78W. FARTHER EAST...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W...
MENTIONED ABOVE...REMAINS THE ONLY ACTIVE AREA CONVECTIVELY
OUTSIDE OF THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGING THAT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A
STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change.


Well that's sucky:/
Told ya's NHC left 92L at 70% but nooooooooooo one believed me.



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
active.season.so.far.but.no.unforgettable.ones
Quoting AussieStorm:
Told ya's NHC left 92L at 70% but nooooooooooo one believed me.



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


To me 92L looked better yesterday evening. I was not surprised of the no change in percentages.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Check the time on the image.... 7:57AM EDT


you need to look at this

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espaol*)
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion
205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012




Quoting Waltanater:
Sorry, I hadn't really noticed your take on it. If that's the case, good insight then. You think it may impact US anywhere?


ok this was my model from 00Z it is Dark charcol gray and listed CHC



TWO is out and Aussie was correct on the numbers cause it has not changed
Hmmmm 92L could be a future Florida storm?? The pattern sure shows that it could be, gotta keep watch of this one!
dont forget about this

Note: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion scheduled for release on August 9, 2012 at 9:00AM EDT will be released at 11:00AM EDT in conjunction with Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook update
That going southwest will help 92L escape dry air but are the trade winds still relaxed in the caribbean?
Im not so sure... CMC wants no longer to split a storm off ernesto but instead bring something from the keys to the louisiana coast....like a weaker katrina
I remember back in August of 2005 the remnants of a tropical depression merged with a tropical wave near The Bahamas. The rest is history. Something to consider as we watch Florence hook up with that wave.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


you need to look at this

Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Espaol*)
200 AM EDT THU AUG 9 2012 Tropical Weather Discussion
205 AM EDT THU AUG 09 2012






ok this was my model from 00Z it is Dark charcol gray and listed CHC



TWO is out and Aussie was correct on the numbers cause it has not changed


Why would the NHC update this


before they update this.....


Both come from the same organisation and information.

If there was going to be a change it would be on the ATCA also, not first on the AGTWO.
2306. SLU
92L is either moving WSW or the center reformed further south overnight.

Good Morning. Well kiss my grits.......Don't know what the current models sayeth in terms of E-Pac development but I see that some of the moisture and pending remnants from Ernesto are heading into the E-Pac as suggested by one of the models a few days ago.

On the Atlantic side, the current trajectory of 92L (at 70%) is not looking too good for the Caribbean at the moment but the sooner it can form into a TD, the better the chance of some type of recurvature. What happens after that, if it does move towards PR or above, will depend on what the ridging looks like in about 6 days as to whether it would get pushed back towards the Bahamas, East Coast, or closer to Bermuda or out to sea. Lots of deep Fall like trofs at the moment, courtesy of El Nino, so it could get picked up if it makes it into the Caribbean, or, swept away by a trof and stay away from the US if moves North of PR. Have to see how the models pan out. The only real impediment, as was the case yesterday, is the dry air where it is headed but that has not hampered improved structure for the time being. However, if the low deepens and heads towards TD status, or higher, it could start to entrain in some of that dry air; it could also develop within that small moisture pocket, where the convection has been most persistent, and continue to feed moisture in from the ITCZ it is diving back towards closer to 10N.

WV loop: Link

The wave exiting Africa looking pretty good but we still have to see what happens after water touchdown and adjustment as it passes the CV Islands.

Just my personal opinions this am.
2308. SLU
Miami NWS Disco

A RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLIER THIS MORNING MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS. AN UPPER LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED JUST NW OF JAMAICA AND
INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. A LARGE ENVELOP OF MOISTURE WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY OVER S. FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA FRIDAY, BUT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES (BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE),
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH CAUTION FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND NOT GO AS HIGH AS GFS. IF THE RIGHT
COMBINATION, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, COMES TO
PLAY, THE CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.
you know, come to think of it, I think I do remember that. interesting you say that. We used to live in Boca Raton back around that time and I can remember hurricane warnings being posted for palm beach county. a category 1 hurricane hit boca raton.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Poll:

1: Ex Flo
Will she go
A) SW to St Jhon/St croix
B) S and drift
C) W into Bahamas/Cuba
D) NW to SC
E) N to recurve
What % will she get up to?
A) 0%
B) 10%
C) 20%
D) 30%
E) higher


C.

A.
988MB now!!!!
Quoting slavicthunder:
I remember back in August of 2005 the remnants of a tropical depression merged with a tropical wave near The Bahamas. The rest is history. Something to consider as we watch Florence hook up with that wave.
The horrid "K" storm...
Quoting SLU:
92L is either moving WSW or the center reformed further south overnight.



He has done a better job tightening up his circulation since yesterday when it was elongated southwest to northeast. Still looks like he is fully connected to the ITCZ which is good for moisture support. You can see he has two feeder bands both connected to the ITCZ.
I think now its about increasing convection which has been somewhat limited with this system.
African wave:

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N11W TO 18N12W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED ACROSS AFRICA THE PAST FEW DAYS AND
EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
WHILE THIS CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
600-850 MB...THE ONLY APPARENT SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AS A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
16N12W ACCORDING TO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS W AFRICA.
WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS HAVE
BEEN DOWNWARD INTENSITY WISE THE PAST 6 HOURS...A COMPLEX OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 13W-19W...
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND W
AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 10W-16W.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Miami NWS Disco

A RATHER ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLIER THIS MORNING MOVING WEST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS. AN UPPER LOW WAS ALSO INDICATED JUST NW OF JAMAICA AND
INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE. A LARGE ENVELOP OF MOISTURE WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH SYSTEMS. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE
GRADUALLY OVER S. FLORIDA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WESTERN
TIP OF CUBA FRIDAY, BUT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS THE TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DUE TO
THE NATURE OF THESE SYSTEMS AND THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INTERACTIONS
BETWEEN UPPER LOWS AND TROPICAL WAVES (BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE),
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH CAUTION FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND NOT GO AS HIGH AS GFS. IF THE RIGHT
COMBINATION, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW, COMES TO
PLAY, THE CHANCES FOR RAIN COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.



I wonder if EX Florence comes into play as well as she appears to moving in tandem with the ULL to the W or WNW.

Time: 12:10:00Z
Coordinates: 18.3167N 93.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,406 meters (~ 4,613 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 989.3 mb (~ 29.21 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 81° at 26 knots (From the E at ~ 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 20.7°C (~ 69.3°F)
Dew Pt: 14.2°C (~ 57.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 26 knots (~ 29.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 27 knots (~ 31.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting SLU:
92L is either moving WSW or the center reformed further south overnight.


yes its been moving WSW for a good portion of the night
2320. SLU
Quoting ILwthrfan:


He has done a better job tightening up his circulation since yesterday when it was elongated southwest to northeast. Still looks like he is fully connected to the ITCZ which is good for moisture support. You can see he has two feeder bands both connected to the ITCZ.
I think now its about increasing convection which has been somewhat limited with this system.


yep but it's getting there slowly but surely
good morning. you bring up some great points. fall like troughs already but due to a developing el nino. kind of hard to forecast or guess becasue ridging is also pretty strong but with these troughs coming down the way they have been, it will be interesting to see how many landfalling tropical cyclones we get.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes its been moving WSW for a good portion of the night


The GFS has so indicated it would. My confidence level is sky high with GFS.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Told ya's NHC left 92L at 70% but nooooooooooo one believed me.



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


Pretty sure I agreed with you! Even if I'm not a heavy hitter LOL
Here is the current A-B high ridging and steering flow. Notice how the flow diverges near the Northern Lesser Antilles to one area into the Caribbean and the other area flowing North of PR towards the Bahamas. I can see why some of the models are split as to two general trajectories for 92L. Way too early to know what ultimate route it would take.

Link

I do not like the look of either solution at the moment.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The horrid "K" storm...


You got it. And the models (back then) predicted Katrina would bend back to the NE and exit into the Atlantic via Jacksonville. Instead, she fed off of the warm Everglades water and dug down hard into the southern GOM. I'm sure numerical simulation has evolved since then. It would be interesting to see how the GFS would've simulated Katrina 7 years ago.
2327. SLU
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes its been moving WSW for a good portion of the night


09/1045 UTC 13.7N 41.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
09/0545 UTC 14.4N 39.3W T1.0/1.0 92L

Big south western jog ... still at 1.0
2328. SLU
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


The GFS has so indicated it would. My confidence level is sky high with GFS.


the GFS has done really well so far in the deep tropics.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Well kiss my grits.......Don't know what the current models sayeth in terms of E-Pac development but I see that some of the moisture and pending remnants from Ernesto are heading into the E-Pac as suggested by one of the models a few days ago.

On the Atlantic side, the current trajectory of 92L (at 70%) is not looking too good for the Caribbean at the moment but the sooner it can form into a TD, the better the chance of some type of recurvature. What happens after that, if it does move towards PR or above, will depend on what the ridging looks like in about 6 days as to whether it would get pushed back towards the Bahamas, East Coast, or closer to Bermuda or out to sea. Lots of deep Fall like trofs at the moment, courtesy of El Nino, so it could get picked up if it makes it into the Caribbean, or, swept away by a trof and stay away from the US if moves North of PR. Have to see how the models pan out. The only real impediment, as was the case yesterday, is the dry air where it is headed but that has not hampered improved structure for the time being. However, if the low deepens and heads towards TD status, or higher, it could start to entrain in some of that dry air; it could also develop within that small moisture pocket, where the convection has been most persistent, and continue to feed moisture in from the ITCZ it is diving back towards closer to 10N.

WV loop: Link

The wave exiting Africa looking pretty good but we still have to see what happens after water touchdown and adjustment as it passes the CV Islands.

Just my personal opinions this am.


yeah, was thinking those remants look like a flux unto their own :O Can it get it's own circulation going or does it need to hope ernesto's circulation catches up?!
agreed
Quoting slavicthunder:
I remember back in August of 2005 the remnants of a tropical depression merged with a tropical wave near The Bahamas. The rest is history. Something to consider as we watch Florence hook up with that wave.


That is the main thing that's been on my mind with her too. Looks like she wants to do something, if can just catch that lucky spark...
Quoting SLU:


09/1045 UTC 13.7N 41.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
09/0545 UTC 14.4N 39.3W T1.0/1.0 92L

Big south western jog ... still at 1.0

told ya
but I had it at 13.5N 40.4W hmm
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


yeah, was thinking those remants look like a flux unto their own :O Can it get it's own circulation going or does it need to hope ernesto's circulation catches up?!


That is the key; the remnants cannot develop in the E-Pac until a low and circulation get's going and that may take several days to pan out it it does at all; don't have a clue what will happen.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ha ha and I'm the one thats been saying it all along now more and more people now agree with me


well, tbh I was agreeing with the computer track...but if it's what you've been saying too, yay you LOL
lol
Quoting Tazmanian:
Did you notice that 92L is looking at you :).
north.side.of.ull.near.the.bahamas.looks.suspect
can someone please explain what a ULL is and how it forms? thanks
Quoting LargoFl:
...........................I am wondering, yesterday some models were putting a storm in the gulf off tampa bay in about 100 hours...where is this coming from? so we can watch it..anyone know?


Could be ex-Florence or the Blob south of Haiti !
Quoting kshipre1:
can someone please explain what a ULL is and how it forms? thanks

Link
2344. SLU


232

WHXX01 KWBC 091235

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1235 UTC THU AUG 9 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE ERNESTO (AL052012) 20120809 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120809 1200 120810 0000 120810 1200 120811 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.3N 93.8W 18.2N 95.9W 18.0N 98.2W 18.1N 100.5W

SHIP 55KTS 60KTS 63KTS 66KTS

DSHP 55KTS 39KTS 31KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120811 1200 120812 1200 120813 1200 120814 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 18.3N 102.8W 18.4N 108.1W 17.8N 113.4W 17.3N 117.7W

SHIP 70KTS 79KTS 87KTS 91KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 37KTS 41KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 18.3N LONCUR = 93.8W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 18.8N LONM12 = 91.5W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 18.8N LONM24 = 89.8W

WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 55KT

CENPRS = 989MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 25NM RD34NW = 100NM



$$

NNNN


Well it looks as if todays round of thunderstorms for C FL is already organizing across N FL. E C FL got blasted yesterday from strong storms that rolled down the coast from N FL. Infact this storm complex covered all of Volusia and northern lake counties at one point. Anybody on here from coastal Volusia this morning as I am curious to see how much rain you guys got as I know they needed it bad.

2347. pottery
Quoting SLU:


09/1045 UTC 13.7N 41.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
09/0545 UTC 14.4N 39.3W T1.0/1.0 92L

Big south western jog ... still at 1.0

BAH !
thanks!
GFS 111HR GOM
Here's some ATL music for the blog.

Link
G'morning, geeks! ;)

92L feeling hot breath on his neck as he heads westwards. Ernesto Round 2.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Quoting wxchaser97:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all
2357. SLU



531

WHXX01 KWBC 091252

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1252 UTC THU AUG 9 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120809 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120809 1200 120810 0000 120810 1200 120811 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.7N 41.7W 14.0N 45.4W 14.2N 49.6W 14.7N 53.9W

BAMD 13.7N 41.7W 13.9N 44.4W 14.0N 47.1W 14.3N 49.6W

BAMM 13.7N 41.7W 14.2N 44.6W 14.5N 47.8W 15.0N 50.8W

LBAR 13.7N 41.7W 13.7N 44.7W 13.7N 48.0W 13.9N 51.3W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120811 1200 120812 1200 120813 1200 120814 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.2N 58.4W 15.9N 67.5W 16.7N 77.0W 17.1N 85.5W

BAMD 14.8N 51.7W 16.1N 55.0W 17.6N 57.6W 18.7N 60.1W

BAMM 15.5N 53.8W 16.8N 58.8W 18.0N 62.8W 19.2N 66.1W

LBAR 14.4N 54.5W 16.0N 59.4W 18.2N 61.7W 20.9N 62.5W

SHIP 48KTS 55KTS 60KTS 62KTS

DSHP 48KTS 55KTS 60KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 41.7W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 15KT

LATM12 = 14.1N LONM12 = 38.5W DIRM12 = 266DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 13.9N LONM24 = 35.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 9August12pmGMT:
MinimumPressure decreased from 993millibars to 989millibars
MaxSusWinds increased from 60knots(69mph)111km/h to 55knots(63mph)102km/h
Vector changed from 270.3*West@17.5mph(28.1km/h) to 233.3*West@9.6mph(15.4km/h)

VER-Veracruz :: MTT-Coatzacoalcos : CME-Ciudad del Carmen :: CTM-Chetumal

The easternmost dot on the connected lines is where Ernesto became a Hurricane
The dot over CTM marks H.Ernesto ATCF position before it became a TropicalStorm again
The dot on the coastline is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

8August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed toward skimming over the northern shoreline of LagunaTerminos on its way to the Bay of Campeche
9August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto (barely) entered the Bay of Campeche
9August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed toward passage over Alverado (bottomVERdumbbell)
9August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto made landfall near VillaSanchezMagallanes

Copy&paste ctm, cme, mtt, ver-18.77n95.723w, paz, 18.5n85.5w-18.7n87.1w, 18.7n87.1w-18.8n88.3w, 18.8n88.3w-18.8n89.8w, 18.8n89.8w-18.8n90.9w, 18.8n90.9w-18.8n91.5w, 18.8n91.5w-18.8n93.1w, 18.8n93.1w-18.3n93.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
2359. SLU
Quoting pottery:

BAH !


hehe
BAMS is not what we want I like the BAMD.

I am curious to see the set up of the High in the atlantic, where it is in respect to the eastern seaboard and strength of troughs. If GFS and Euro runs pan out, we could in for a doozy the next couple of months.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all

Give it a few days to get into the ground to make any difference.
right I thought I saw the LLCOC of 92L it is naked partialy and moving WSW located 13.7N 41.7W well atleast we all agree
AL, 92, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO
Quoting AussieStorm:
BAMS is not what we want I like the BAMD.


Me too..that's if it curves out to see
But we do have the wishcasters who want it not to.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all

I'm in a drought shield of some sort protecting me from severe drought, seriously.
Quoting AussieStorm:
BAMS is not what we want I like the BAMD.


models will shift Sward
I agree. The BAMS model is pretty scary. that path is bad because the High could steer it towards or near Florida or a deep enough trough could turn it into Florida.
Quoting AussieStorm:
BAMS is not what we want I like the BAMD.



If it followed BAMS, that would not be good. The GFS has been pretty good this year but I don't like that path either. Of course, 92L is just a struggling system and could dissipate.
Quoting kshipre1:
I agree. The BAMS model is pretty scary. that path is bad because the High could steer it towards or near Florida or a deep enough trough could turn it into Florida.

models will shift Swards
2370. hydrus
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


The GFS has so indicated it would. My confidence level is sky high with GFS.
That s.w. jog save those folks a lot of trouble..
Quoting jascott1967:


If it followed BAMS, that would not be good. The GFS has been pretty good this year but I don't like that path either. Of course, 92L is just a struggling system and could dissipate.

hey dude by the way where are you from
I wonder if Ernesto will make Hurricane status again before his second landfall?
let's hope so; however, even if 92L takes a more southern route into the central caribbean all it would take is a strong enough trough to erode the High and make a turn N or NE. not sure how practical that is but it is pretty strange to see these deep troughs and it is only August.
2374. ncstorm
Good Morning Everyone..

00z CMC..something tries to develop off of Florida and moves up the east coast






and then ? moves into the GOM
Quoting kshipre1:
I am curious to see the set up of the High in the atlantic, where it is in respect to the eastern seaboard and strength of troughs. If GFS and Euro runs pan out, we could in for a doozy the next couple of months.


As Dr. M noted a few weeks ago; we could either have a favorable steering pattern resulting in fishes or an unfavorable pattern not favoring recurvature (and no way to know what the pattern will like during the peak). I would argue that we have entered the start of the march towards the peak a little early this year (because of this cluster of viable waves in early August)and that the pattern is currently unfavorable.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm in a drought shield of some sort protecting me from severe drought, seriously.


they just think we are in a drought because stream flows average from 2-25%....except after a downpour over a stream.... lakes are still up, the closest lake is only 4ft below full pool now....
They should ask the directors of the local WFO's is the drought is really in effect in their area....we are having no effect really, behind by 7 inches for the year. behind 3.5 inches since june 1st, behind 1.5inches for july......
And somehow we are in a exceptional drought...
and MO and IL are in a sever drought for most of their area...it doesnt make sense
Quoting kshipre1:
let's hope so; however, even if 92L takes a more southern route into the central caribbean all it would take is a strong enough trough to erode the High and make a turn N or NE. not sure how practical that is but it is pretty strange to see these deep troughs and it is only August.

the Dark Charcoal gray one is mine noticed the turn at the end
Question: What is the difference between a Thunder storm and a Thunder shower?
2379. ncstorm


Plenty of tropical waves

2380. Chiggy
92L early model guidance is very similar to Ernesto - taking it in to the eastern Caribbean. The only difference might be the fact that 92L may pass the Islands slightly north of where Ernesto was last week - early days but I am seeing Ernesto Part 2!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: What is the difference between a Thunder storm and a Thunder shower?


Shower curtains and a boom box in the bathroom............
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

models will shift Swards


Heading towards the Caymans I assume?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Shower curtains and a boom box in the bathroom............


omgosh. I hurt my back laughing so hard at your answer.
2384. kwgirl
Quoting kshipre1:
let's hope so; however, even if 92L takes a more southern route into the central caribbean all it would take is a strong enough trough to erode the High and make a turn N or NE. not sure how practical that is but it is pretty strange to see these deep troughs and it is only August.
Good morning everyone. Does this forbode an early winter again? I saw a few swallows and heard a Cicada last week. That is usually the first signs of autumn down here in the Keys. Pretty early if you ask me. I don't mind it, could relieve the heat. But it also puts us in another Wilma scenario. That is scary.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Question: What is the difference between a Thunder storm and a Thunder shower?


It depends on who is using the term, to me a thunder shower is just when it is raining and there is on and off thunder, and thunderstorm is more what you take cover from, its stormy with lightning and rain etc...thundershowers are milder
My forecast graphic, NOT OFFICIAL
thanks. so, you think a trend towards more westward moving storms without much chance of recurvature?

The only similarities I can see with this hurricane season compared to 2004 is a fairly strong high and a developing el nino season. Even in 2004, I could remember this many troughs.
2388. Chiggy
Also, the 06Z doesn't develop anything worth tracking for the next 10 days. Doesn't even develop Gordon as it did with some consistency yesterday!

If GFS is correct the next 10 days might be quieter than we all thought! :(
we atleast there is some sort of agreement with me

I sat 13.7N 41.7W moving WSW
this says 09/1045 UTC 13.7N 41.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
and that says AL, 92, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO

so atleast we are getting some where

Quoting Chiggy:
92L early model guidance is very similar to Ernesto - taking it in to the eastern Caribbean. The only difference might be the fact that 62L may pass the Islands slightly north of where Ernesto was last week - early days but I am seeing Ernesto Part 2!

yep thats bad news for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


they just think we are in a drought because stream flows average from 2-25%....except after a downpour over a stream.... lakes are still up, the closest lake is only 4ft below full pool now....
They should ask the directors of the local WFO's is the drought is really in effect in their area....we are having no effect really, behind by 7 inches for the year. behind 3.5 inches since june 1st, behind 1.5inches for july......
And somehow we are in a exceptional drought...
and MO and IL are in a sever drought for most of their area...it doesnt make sense

Pretty much opposite for us, things are looking worse than D0 more like D3 but one rain event back like a month ago and then we are magically out even though we are still running well below average where I'm at.
hello and good morning to you too. great question. With my limited knowledge, I would guess that a sign of early troughs could signal an el nino coming up. If that is so, another Wilma scenario is down right scary.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I wonder if Ernesto will make Hurricane status again before his second landfall?


Looks like he's at landfall again already? Looking to me like he just stayed way too close to the coast to take advantage of the waters...which is a good thing for Mexico obv. But am thinking even though he was so close, that he just missed status...tough to call being he was so close to it though, so may have brushed by! Still wish they had been able to get to him before the first landfall
The Southeast: Parts of the Southeast received a good soaking last week while others missed out, leading to a mixed bag of changes on this week’s map. The heaviest precipitation fell over eastern Tennessee, the western Carolinas, northern Georgia, eastern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, leading to 1-category improvements along the drought’s perimeter in these regions. This hasn’t removed drought, but instead has only tightened the gradients between the haves and the have-nots, as conditions can vary wildly over very short distances. The underlying hydrologic drought in Georgia and Alabama remains well seated, with low streamflows being commonplace as they are well into a two-year drought.


See they are just falling for low streamflows and the fact that we were way behind on rain last year and 7 inches behind this year....last year's drought is barely affecting this year, but they just look at numbers and think it is worse than it reall is..We still get 2-3 inches a month
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


It depends on who is using the term, to me a thunder shower is just when it is raining and there is on and off thunder, and thunderstorm is more what you take cover from, its stormy with lightning and rain etc...thundershowers are milder

Brian van de Graaff ‏@ABC7Brian
A few thunder showers today - more numerous tomorrow. Slight risk for severe west of DC today - all of the area Friday!

I guess you guys have different terms to us down here. A storm with thunder is a thunderstorm. A shower with thunder is still a thunderstorm.
The OFPI track for 92L takes it into the Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.

Sound familiar?
2396. Chiggy
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The OFPI track for 92L takes it into the Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.

Sound familiar?

As I mention in my post earlier..., Ernesto Part-2
I will update my forecast model for 92L soon

00Z
2398. hydrus
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning! Both the CMC and NAM are now bringing a slug of very heavy rains up from the eastern Gulf from a Tropical Wave that is moving across eastern Cuba right now.



The CMC also insists that a hurricane hits the big bend area of Florida.
So, I have to ask. If there is 0% chance of development, why is it on the map?

And, no hurricanes need to head this way, the spiders in my shutters would be greatly disturbed.
I guess this could be credible but the CMC and NAM models are not widely looked at right? not sure, that is why I am asking.
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC also insists that a hurricane hits the big bend area of Florida.


i thought it had moved to LA?
anyway, its not reliable
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Looks like he's at landfall again already? Looking to me like he just stayed way too close to the coast to take advantage of the waters...which is a good thing for Mexico obv. But am thinking even though he was so close, that he just missed status...tough to call being he was so close to it though, so may have brushed by! Still wish they had been able to get to him before the first landfall

This guy got to Ernesto
2404. Chiggy
Quoting hydrus:
The CMC also insists that a hurricane hits the big bend area of Florida.


This is now 24 hours old..!
Quoting AussieStorm:


omgosh. I hurt my back laughing so hard at your answer.


Lol........See Yall after lunch......... :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The OFPI track for 92L takes it into the Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.

Sound familiar?

as I said like Ernesto or Ernesto part 2 look at my forecast model the dark gray is mine thats what I am thinking

Quoting jrweatherman:


Heading towards the Caymans I assume?


it just so happen that cayman is in it not because I want to and it just so happen to be that the Cayman Islands are in a place that get impacted by TS and hurricanes alot more than some places

my 12Z model will soon com out
2407. Chiggy
12Z models for 92L... Ring a bell from last week! LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:

This guy got to Ernesto


so if there was a super steep pressure gradient in the 5 miles between him and the eye, maybe this was even lower at 960mb or less...lol
Wonder if that was hurrtracker1994's source that he couldn't name
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i thought it had moved to LA?
anyway, its not reliable

GFS doesn't develop anything for 192hrs except for this...
far right
yikes!
GFS looks to already be leading the way with 92L

The upgrade they installed not too long ago REALLY made a difference in the tropics.

Hadn't had my morning coffee yet, but if anyone wants the details of the upgrade...just PM me.
so much for all the hype of storms. amazing how the computer models now say a quiet period but I think the MJO moves into our area of the basin which could be why the GFS is saying a 10 day lull time.
2413. ryang
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The OFPI track for 92L takes it into the Caribbean as a moderate tropical storm.

Sound familiar?


Do you have a graphic?
It appears that ex-Florence has had a little burst of convection. The shear is moderate right now but with this amount of convection, further development is not out of the question. Actually, currently the 850 mb vorticity values are greater for ex-Florence than those for 92L. Just keep an eye on ex-Florence.
I apologize for my ignorance and I embarrased but I do not know what PM means. Could you please kindly explain the upgrades? If the GFS continues to be right as it has been, that is probably the computer model to trust as we head into the peak part of the season.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


so if there was a super steep pressure gradient in the 5 miles between him and the eye, maybe this was even lower at 960mb or less...lol
Wonder if that was hurrtracker1994's source that he couldn't name


My source was the NHC (since I work there). This particular storm chaser reported to us. It will all be used in post storm analysis.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
It appears that ex-Florence has had a little burst of convection. The shear is moderate right now but with this amount of convection, further development is not out of the question. Actually, currently the 850 mb vorticity values are greater for ex-Florence than those for 92L. Just keep an eye on ex-Florence.


you sure about that....?
i dont think so...but thats just me, its recurving anyway, not like it will join with a wave north of the bahams and spin through south florida and bomb out in the GOM and wipe out part of the gulf coast, so why watch it?
Quoting kshipre1:
I apologize for my ignorance and I embarrased but I do not know what PM means. Could you please kindly explain the upgrades? If the GFS continues to be right as it has been, that is probably the computer model to trust as we head into the peak part of the season.

PM means send him a Private message through WU mail.
I'd keep atleast one eye on ex -flo,she may take on a new identity and effect Florida in 3-4 days,look for a flare up of convection as she interacts withe the ull to her west inhancing convection due to ull diffluent flow aloft.
Quoting kshipre1:
so much for all the hype of storms. amazing how the computer models now say a quiet period but I think the MJO moves into our area of the basin which could be why the GFS is saying a 10 day lull time.

just to remind you when the MJO inter our area it increases out chances of have a tropical cyclone or multiple tropical cyclones
I meant to say the GFS sees activity picking up in about 10 days due to the MJO arriving into our basin.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you sure about that....?
i dont think so...but thats just me, its recurving anyway, not like it will join with a wave north of the bahams and spin through south florida and bomb out in the GOM and wipe out part of the gulf coast, so why watch it?


We watch everything at NHC.
Quoting kshipre1:
I meant to say the GFS sees activity picking up in about 10 days due to the MJO arriving into our basin.

oh ok now that makes sense
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


We watch everything at NHC.


ok i phrased that wrong...
why give it anymore than a passing glance? It's just a dying trough....
BAMS

It is odd that the GFS(06Z) does not develop 92L or that area working its way northward from Hispaniola/Cuba.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wake me up when theres something interesting to talk about other then some hybrid/subtropical sheared tc's.
Quoting ryang:


Do you have a graphic?


I'm waiting for my plotting source to update.

I'll post it as soon as I can.

On a side note, a strong CCKW will move over 92L once it nears the islands and could produced enhanced rainfall for that region.

The theme again is that if this stays further south, it has a much better chance at surviving.
yes, you are correct. I posted another comment to my own entry indicating same thing, thanks. I was puzzeled when I read my own comment!, lol :)
ok, thanks
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ok i phrased that wrong...
why give it anymore than a passing glance? It's just a dying trough....


That is pretty much what I am doing. The blog has been geared more towards 92L. 92L is struggling right now, and I stated it earlier this morning that it will be probably a while before we see a TD out of 92L. Dry air is eating it apart. I am not saying ex-Florence is a threat I am just stating that its vorticity values are higher than 92L.
2433. hydrus
Brings it in as a 996 low..Strong tropical storm..For now.
Quoting hurricane23:


Wake me up when theres something interesting to talk about other then some hybrid/subtropical sheared tc's.


It is tropical and it can be sheared but neither hybrid or subtropical.
Quoting hurricane23:


Wake me up when theres something interesting to talk about other then some
hybrid/subtropical sheared tc's.


Your just a huge ray of sunshine lately. lol

Also, I don't think we'll be seeing a system that will impress you for at least a week or two. African train is a little too elevated at the moment, but the MJO will favor TC genesis in the MDR and the specific MJO phase will favor the development of hurricanes and not just cyclones in general.
how do you private chat a member? sorry and thanks
New storm down the road.....

BTW....

Did you know that in 2011 the Port of Houston created a $178.5 billion economic impact in Texas and helped generate more than 1,000,000 jobs in the state?
And, more than $4.5 billion is generated in state and local taxes.
This information comes from a report compiled by Pennsylvania-based Martin Associates.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I'm waiting for my plotting source to update.

I'll post it as soon as I can.

On a side note, a strong CCKW will move over 92L once it nears the islands and could produced enhanced rainfall for that region.

The theme again is that if this stays further south, it has a much better chance at surviving.


Low level flow issues AGAIN :0(
Quoting hurricane23:


Wake me up when theres something interesting to talk about other then some hybrid/subtropical sheared tc's.


You've become a very ignorant person... At least on here... All we are doing is having fun tracking anything and you come on here and downplay EVERY system.. "Oh it's gonna diminish, no it's gonna be weak, it's a fish"..
Quoting kshipre1:
how do you private chat a member? sorry and thanks

WU has it's on chat room here.
Quoting AussieStorm:
BAMS


ok that make no sense
and it make landfall in the capital of Grand Cayman GT but atleast it misses my house its on the N side of the island in WB

but really BAMS is further S
12Z

You know what this blog needs right now... A nice cup of warm Tropical storm soup. If anyone needs something to track look over at the EPAC. We got a hurricane over there.
LLC trying to escape...

Already.

Quoting AussieStorm:

WU has it's on chat room here.


*Facepalm*
No aussie, he means private mail, not chat
Going up to 63KT now
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
You know what this blog needs right now... A nice cup of warm Tropical storm soup. If anyone needs something to track look over at the EPAC. We got a hurricane over there.


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok that make no sense
and it make landfall in the capital of Grand Cayman GT but atleast it misses my house its on the N side of the island in WB

but really BAMS is further S
12Z



UKMET has the right idea for the African wave (in my opinion).
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
You know what this blog needs right now... A nice cup of warm Tropical storm soup. If anyone needs something to track look over at the EPAC. We got a hurricane over there.


yah but its boring....a cat 1 headed to death right now...away from land
good morning Reed. what is the UKMET saying?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


*Facepalm*
No aussie, he means private mail, not chat

*nose punch*
it's another option.
92L is taking on more tropical storm-like features.

I wonder why 06Z GFS doesn't do anything with it seeing it has a 70% chance of developing within 48 hours.

Perhaps 12Z run may show development.
2452. Chiggy
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.


nah not really look on it from rainbow you can see convection starting to build on the W side of the circulation
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


so its not gonna hit me, and its not major
From one of my favorite "Keyboard Mets"

(The NHC cited his work in the first discussion for Florence)

(Key: Low activity = 1 tropical cyclone; Medium activity = 2 tropical cyclones; High activity = 3+ tropical cyclones.)

"August 2-14: High Activity; Confidence 50%. Conditions are projected to become favorable for Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis during this time as the convectively active phase of a strong eastward propagating convectively-coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) passes over the Atlantic. The declaration of Tropical Depression 5 has occurred while superimposed with the convectively active phase of this strong CCKW.

With regards to the MJO, using an EOF analysis composed of U200, U850, and VP200, the MJO is providing a favorable environment for deep convection over the East Pacific (Phase 8). This location is different than what most real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices suggest using U200, U850, and OLR for the EOF calculation. The added value of using VP200 instead of OLR in the EOF calculation is that the new RMM principle components (PCs) capture more (OLR, U850) variance over the Western Hemisphere, serving as an improved RMM index there. RMM phase 3 is the most favorable phase for genesis, therefore suggesting the Atlantic will remain in active state through August 14. Further, Atlantic hurricanes are most frequent during RMM phases 1-3. Therefore, there is increased potential for any storms to develop to intensify into hurricanes during this time."

Quoting AussieStorm:

WU has it's on chat room here.


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....
am curious about some of the model runs on the CMC and GFS seeing a strong tropical storm in the EGOM. who thinks this is credible given it is only five days out?
Quoting hurricane23:


Low level flow issues AGAIN :0(


Hey "Killer," good to see you.
Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!


You are so right, :-)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LLC trying to escape...

Already.

I am still not sure if this one will develop into Gordon.maybe it will maybe it will not.
Quoting AussieStorm:

*nose punch*
it's another option.


I tried it....
*nosebleed*
2462. Chiggy
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Going up to 63KT now

I always wanted to know this: How accurate are the SHIPS intensity models and does it also have track? I never see a track from SHIPS model. If so then can someone please post a link here, thank you!
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:


We have severe storms today, and tomorrow... Better than tropical storms, at least to me.


I can not argue with that. I have done my time in the NWS. Severe storms are really exciting to deal with, especially when your chasing them haha. Although, a tropical system is like a severe storm on steroids.
so, can we assume this means after August 14, tropical activity in atlantic will go quiet again for some time?
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


lol, its classic WU, i knew something looked wrong....

I prefer the classic over the new look.
Quoting Chiggy:
Actually 00Z Euro develops the 92L more than 06Z GFS, and so do the 06Z HWRF, GFDL, and 00Z CMC.
So I guess there is some model consensus of a moderate tropical storm in the eastern Caribbean in 3 days time.
Very similar to what we had for Ernesto at the same stage of development.

92L needs to be watched to say the least!

yep so true I have a bad feeling about this one Chiggy it being further N it it follows a a Ernesto type track plus being further N it will be more of a problem for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands
Going up to CAT 1 is this Ernesto twins?? lol

Quoting kshipre1:
so, can we assume this means after August 14, tropical activity in atlantic will go quiet again for some time?


Looks like it

Quoting AussieStorm:

I prefer the classic over the new look.


This look is kind of cartoony, in my opinion.

By the way... I think Ernie's a hurricane. And I'm assuming he'll be upgraded to a category 2 upon post analysis. There's no way he wasn't one.
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Looks like it


Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


tons of rain and i't still in this non-existent drought:



dont even really know why we are in a much of a drought of all


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,
thanks. I guess the GFS showing MJO returning around August 20 and staying for some time makes sense.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Peak is September 10 not August 10.
oh and you posted....... the chart.


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Really? Thats surprising. Can I have the link to your source?
ATCF, as usual.
did NHC designate this as a TD? sorry, I maybe I misunderstood.
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.renFSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208091354
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Full tropical update
Going to be gone for a while later today. Ernesto is making landfall near Coatxacoalcos, MX.
Why me, just as I post this entry 92L is renumbered to TD7, I'll update that later today.
2482. hydrus
Quoting PlazaRed:


Just a snipit I picked up from the BBC, jsut now.

"Global food prices rise in July due to extreme weather."

"Cereal prices surged 17%, while sugar leapt 12% to new highs in July from the previous month after rains hampered sugarcane harvesting in Brazil, the world's largest producer."

Here's the link if you want to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19193390
Its off topic. I am sriously angry with"some" of the companies that manufacture food products..They are ripping people off, and I am sick of it. (92L does not look like much, but that should change when it nears the islands.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF, as usual.


Thank you!
I don't think this remuber will stick until 11am

92L has it's LLC exsposed...
Quoting mikatnight:


Which reminds me, when was the last time that chart has been updated?

Oh, and hello Aussie!

Good Morning
Maybe TD-7? I am extremely surprised!
Do we have TD 7??
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Today is a nice, cool, and rainy day where I'm at and this could easily help with the drought. Coming down pretty hard now and I'm happy:)
Quoting Coastalgramps:


Don't know what part of the coast you're on, but I've got a History Page (Evernote file) pertaining mainly to Palm Beach County you might find interesting.
2491. WxLogic
Indeed we have TD#7 now.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


My source was the NHC (since I work there). This particular storm chaser reported to us. It will all be used in post storm analysis.


Isn't it nice the NHC has these crazy people....I mean, brave and passionate people, who will get themselves in as close to the eye as possible and take measurements, all in the name of fun and adventure?! LOL Ok, and science, but reckon the thrill is more than the science with the nutters...I mean brave and passionate folkes, really I do :D
td 7 really wow?
Quoting AussieStorm:

This guy got to Ernesto


Thanks for that :)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here you go: TD 7--

invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren

invest_al072012.invest

AL, 07, 2012080912, , BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN,


I gotta tell you there is no better at letting us know when there is a newly formed invest or storm. Good job Nea.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


We watch everything at NHC.



Well what happened with Humberto then?
2497. Gorty
Quoting WxLogic:
Indeed we have TD#7 now.


Its not on the 11 am advisory though?