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Ernesto gets its name

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:18 PM GMT on August 25, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters visited Tropical Depression Five this afternoon, and at 1:30pm EDT found a surface circulation center and maximum sustained surface winds of 40 mph, making this Tropical Storm Ernesto. Visible satellite images from this afternoon show a a sheared system, with the low level circulation center completely exposed. Upper level winds from the northwest are creating 10-20 knots of shear, which is keeping all the heavy thunderstorm activity confined to the southeast (downwind) side. However, this heavy thunderstorm activity is building towards the center, and the storm has some solid spiral bands forming. The storm is intensifying in the face of the shear. Radar from Aruba shows some of the outer spiral bands.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Ernesto.

The models
The latest 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray a conflicting picture of what may happen. Three of the four major global models--UKMET, GFS, and NOGAPS--dissipate or severely weaken the storm by Monday. The Canadian model, which has been the most aggressive in making Ernesto a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, now keeps the system a weak tropical storm all the way to landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. The European Center model has a similar forecast. Oddly, the large upper-level trough of low pressure over the central Caribbean is forecast by these models to move west away from Ernesto, and an upper level high pressure system to build on top of the storm. This situation should act to lower the shear and aid in intensification, and that it what the official NHC forecast is calling for. It is unusual for the models to forecast a favorable shear environment, yet dissipate a storm, and serves to show the limitations of these models in making hurricane intensity forecasts. I have very little confidence in any of the Ernesto intensity forecasts--including the official NHC forecast of a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. High wind shear could still destroy this storm on Sunday. Ernesto should slowly intensify through Saturday, but beyond that, I have no idea. It's best to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best. All portions the U.S. coast from the Florida Keys to Brownsville, Texas are at risk from this storm.

Given the high degree of uncertainty in Ernesto's intensity, those of you traveling to or from Jamaica, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Cancun should play "wait and see" as long as you can. At this point, it is likely that Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwest Haiti will get tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Jamaica's airports will probably close about 2am Sunday, and remain closed into late Sunday night. Ernesto probably does not have enough time to intensify to a hurricane before reaching Jamaica. Airports in the Cayman Islands will probably close by late morning on Sunday, and reopen Monday afternoon. Ernesto could be a Category 1 hurricane for the Caymans.

Hurricane Ioke
Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific has reached Category 5 status with 160 mph winds today. Ioke is the first hurricane in the Central Pacific since 2002. It's not a threat to any land areas, but is most impressive on satellite imagery. The 12Z GFDL has Ioke at 880mb in 5 days, the lowest forecast pressure I've seen from the GFDL model.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Category 5 Hurricane Ioke, 2030 GMT, 8/25/06. Image credit: Navy Research Lab.

Max Mayfield to step down
Max Mayfield announced today that he is stepping down as head of the National Hurricane Center at the end of the year, according to press reports from the Miami Herald and Florida Sun Sentinel. Mayfield, 57, admitted that the last two hurricane seasons wore him out. Ed Rappaport, the center's deputy director and a veteran forecaster may be next in line for the job, after Max steps down on January 3. Max will be missed--his expert guidance of NHC has no doubt saved many lives, and I will miss his calm and intelligent presence at the helm of NHC.

Next update
The next Hurricane Hunter mission into Ernesto is at 2am EDT Saturday morning. My next update will be Saturday morning between 9-11am, or earlier if there's something major to comment on. I don't have my model summary piece completed yet, but will do so as soon as I get it done.

New JeffMasters blog for dial-up users
There is new blog site for those of you suffering on slow dial-up connections, or for those of you who don't want to see the comments:

http://www.wund.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tornadodude, we're on the Perdido side of Pensacola and the Indy family clan is in Pike Township. There's a wedding next weekend...
2502. Patrap
..the Song Remains the Same ..in late August..the turn around the nose of the Bermuda High nudging into the GOM..or a Trof turning a system n..or NE..is almost always the case this time of year..if..hjow..& when are the forecasting dilemmas..like in Katrina..Ivan..Dennis..aka..the Larger Storms of Recent...this usually makes for wider zones of warning..due to the uncertainty in thes influence..its just late August..nothing new here
No SJ I am looking on the forecast path. There is another area further north but I discounted that one. Like I said its hard to tell untill we get some more frames to look at.
ok. thanks. just wondering.Indy is a beautiful city.
txweather,

You obviously haven't seen the 7am models that turn the storm towards AL/Florida. All the models have shifted right away from Texas. Based on the most recent run of models, Florida is more in play than ever and Texas less so.
I am thinking today that the probability is as follows:

1) North Central Gulf Coast (45%)
2) North Eastern Gulf Coast (30%)
3) Texas (15%)
4) Western Coast of Florida (5%)
5) Mexico (5%)

The North Central and North Eastern probabilities have gotten closer since yesterday. I will do these updates twice daily, once normally around the 5am advisory and the other one late in the evening.

Please, I am just going by what the models are saying and the track, I am not an expert but have been pretty accurate in my predictions in the past... (MandyFSU and others here can account for that). Thanks.
i suspect Dr. Lyons has too much faith in the GFDL, its beens pretty much out to lunch.
whens the next recon mission into ernesto scheduled for today??
2509. jackkip
Been lurking for awhile here. I am no where near the level that most of you guys are at. So just wanted your 2 cents. Do you think the Texas coast is in trouble? I live near Corpus Christi and was just wondering. Thanks.



looks to me like the center is under the cdo.....

also notice the 60knot winds on the se side..... not sure if they are rain contaminated, but there is alot of 50knoT plus winds it would seem....

looks like Ernesto wants to be a cane!

also notice the shear, i mean outflow, on the west side! LOL (sorry for the humor, think i made an arse outta myself last nite.... must have been that 6 pack of Guinness! :D )
2511. Patrap
..Models=Truthiness..LOL..the outliers and the superensemble shifted right..as expected..but after 72 out..not much overall consensus..yet
I have said and still say that a ncentral gulf landfall seems likely.
Followed by a western GOM landfall and lastly a eastern gulf landfall.

What is also misunderstood on the forum(not all but many) is that this weakness is a transient feature(as is the trough that will cause it). If the storm is slower, there is a greater chance of the weakness filling and the storm swinging west.

Right now to be it seems that the timing is such that the storm will make landfall before this happens. But watch for real slowing at the end of the model runs, if this happens a more westward course will probably take place.

Right now all need to watch, though the Fl penisula is rapidly heading into the clear and maybe can be elimated by tomorrow. Now they'll still get some weather perhaps, but the danger of a landfall there is rapidly decreasing. Right now I am worried about the caymans and Jamaica and western cuba. Jamaica's main probelem will be mudslides. The caymans may face hurricane conditions. I think Hati might luck out, buta stray rainband could still be devestating.


TXWeather.. So we are supposed to believe you as opposed to a meteorologist with a Ph. D.? Apparently you WANT the storm to hit you, you keep leaning towards your area. There's no way you can eliminate ANY landfall areas in the ENTIRE GOM right now. It could still hit anywhere from Texas to Florida... It's out in the open. Check the model guidances that have updated. Do not misinform people and tell them that the anywhere is in the clear at this point... that could lead to unpreparedness. Just watch and wait. Don't full out make a prediction that could blow up in your face and make you look like a fool. Don't be ST.
Those models will change a hundred times before this thing hits too.
treehuggingsister: I know the feeling...I plan a trip to see my friend in FL...my first trip was interrupted by Ivan...my second by Dennis...my third by my car getting stolen...so my 4th planned trip, I said, "Come hell or high water, I will be there"...and Katrina came. Sorry, but I planned a trip to see her (panhandle) for Labor Day... So I am publically saying...I AM NOT GOING! Go away Ernesto!! :)
2515. Melagoo
Update looks like Hurricane Status could happen earlier than first thought

Ernie
i dont think Tx is in for it, but u never know when its this far out. just my 2 cents worth.
im leaning more toward Miss. or Louisiana.
coffeecrusader, I have and they reinforce the concept of a NC landfall. Mobile would be dead center of that.
Guys the center will be very tough to locate in visible imagery. It is still imbedded in deep convection and appears to be keeping that way. The only way to see the center on visible in the deep convection is if it becomes organized enough in the future....eye like.,
jackkip- refer to
Posted By: Joshfsu123 at 1:57 PM GMT on August 26, 2006 post

i think he did a great job with the percentages. but i caution you to continue watching. no one can accurately predict/guess a storm this far out.
2520. Patrap
..26.5n by 88.0w..in 120hrs..problamatic for many with Storm Cat 3 and Moving with N to NW or Ne movement..
seems to me ernesto wants to compare itself with ivan.. dennis tracks? hopefully not their strenght though
magicfan1423, I don't live on the ncentral Gulfcoast. I don't have PHd, but do have a masters and in particular my area of study is hurricanes. I've often said I'm no forecaster, however, then model seem to say what I'm saying.
I live on the west side of P'cola directly across Bayou Grande from the main runway at Pensacola NAS about a hundred yards from the Bayou. This mornings GFS is sobering. If any one can put in a good word with man upstairs, It would be appreciated. Lets all hope this thing dissipates or at least doesn't really ramp up.
Its still to early to say where this storm will make the turn, we deal with this every year, just remember what those models did two days before Katrina hit it jumped from the panhandle all the way to New Orleans. I always say that anything that hits the gulf they always point to florida and thats not always the case
2525. franck
thelmores...not sure how you mean that you made an arse ...last night.. Your post last night seemed to show outflow being affected by shearing winds. Thought it was a very good photo.

The photo you posted just now shows that outflow much less affected by winds.
2526. Alec
Hey JoshFSU, you go to FSU now or are you a grad? I go back to FSU today and school starts Monday.............what a way to remember Katrina, lets hope that Ernesto doesnt become as bad as it is being forecasted!
i think central louisiana will get hit
hey ALEC, how are you man
2529. Melagoo
The Mayor of New Orleans seems to think they can withstand another monster Hurricane.

Since the GOM is like a caldron boiling and bubbling anything that reaches that will be a strong storm.

I doubt it maybe a glancing blow but a headon collision would be totally devastating.

Ernesto may not even come close to that area fingers crossed for those folks there.
Does anyone see this thing going north of Jamaica. The NHC track has it going right over Jamaica. I just don't see that.
I don't like that last update on the projected path at all.......if Ernesto gets to 90L we are in deep trouble here. If NOLA gets a hit they are going to close the storm gates in the canals and the pumps are not working yet. What folly.
ST(or StormTop)= see. stupid, a fool, dumb, idiot, or any four letter swear word.
Can anyone tell me this:

Which models best predicted the path of Katrina and Rita last year?
"Guys the center will be very tough to locate in visible imagery"

AGREED.... my position was simply an educated (or not) guess.... :)
sst

100M deep 5 days from now
LOL. TXweather... read my post again. Are you dumb? I didn't imply you lived in the NCentral Gulf Coast. Do you think i'm an idiot and can't read TXWeather? Don't take me for a fool, and they don't give out masters in hurricanes. They give them out in Meteorology or Atmospheric Sciences. You don't type like you own a Masters, just think next time before you make such a harsh and outlying prediction. It would be nice if more people kept us updated with Data and Graphics though. I'm sure you know all the links and could be a big help with Data Analysis?
2537. franck
Patrap...but there is something new here.
2538. Alec
Hey StormHank! How have ya been? I am getting ready to go back to Tallahassee today to start school Monday...
2539. Patrap
.ses all the Pumping staions in New orleans & Jeff online & working as of 8ammlocalcst..the new Pump motors at the OUTFALL canal projects ..had vibration tests that revevealed a flaw in the motors resonace..35 pump motors will have to be replaced..this does not mean the Pumping stations are down.They r not.
uponcripplecreek, the GFDL model was the best last year for Gulf storms
2541. guygee
magicfan1423 - I respect txweather's opinions very much. I think most people here would agree.
I can assure you that txweather is no "wishcaster".
from looking at the short wave loop it would almost appear that the COC has reformed further E in the heart of the CDO
This is possible in response to the shear impinging the W flank
Anyone have a view on this ??
Link
Coffee I'm with you I see Ernesto going North of Jamaica. I'm thinking slightly North but North regardless.
StormHank, recon should be headin in around two.

You can find the real time 30 second updates from the Hunter flights here. It is in the Wind Data section. Disregard that the pages says 2005. It is current.

I am off to get some breakfast. See ya'll later
SJ
Thank you very much, hurricane79.
Does anyone know if any new waves will come off Africa this week? The atlantic looks very quiet now.


hey SJ..... you see your low finally came to fruition...... think it has a shot at any development??

or is that an ULL???
I second that guygee...txweather=good peeps.... :)
2549. Patrap
..Gm franck..how goes it?
When will they update the models again?
kmanislander, If you overlay the tropical forecast points over that visible loop you will see that the center appears to be right under that first TS icon.
Posted By: guygee at 2:14 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
magicfan1423 - I respect txweather's opinions very much. I think most people here would agree.
I can assure you that txweather is no "wishcaster".


No doubt.
Erin was the wind storm. Opal was the surge storm.
Can anyone really believe anything the mayor of New Orleans says?
everyone- please refrain fron the direct "I think Blank will get Hit" Some of the people lurking here believe we are all meteorligist. I for one am not, just an enthustic tropical weather watcher having spent my life on the gulf coast. People watching this site, there are alot of knowledgeable persons here and some official met. students (heck, maybe a met or two) but be cautioned any area in the gulf should keep watch. i have learned alot here and hope you do too.
Good Morning All!
PascMississippi, The new GFDL will come out at 1:30 PM . The new GFS and CMC will come out at noon.
Morning Pulse.
You may respect his opinion guygee, but i don't when he's ignoring the model forecast and making it seem as though there's nothing to worry about for the people of Florida. I saw what happened in 2004, 4 hurricanes in 6 weeks. The damage was devastating. I saw what Dennis did last year. It was horrible, and i'd hate to see people from Florida here ignoring the possibility of a landfall there and not being prepared. That was my reasoning behind the post, it wasn't to attack his knowledge on hurricanes or tropical systems. It wasn't meant to be hostile.


looks like there is some rotation at the surface.....

thoughts SJ?? anybody??
Amen, musicallydeclined.

Some of us live in hurricane alley.
nolatcher- i still cant believe he is back for 4 more years. nope i'm not going there.. this is not a political site. and now back to the weather....
2564. nash28
Yo guys. Yard is done and I am dripping with sweat.... I am really curious to see how rapidly Ernie intensifies and if he begins to control his own environment steering wise.

Looking forward to the next set of runs. By the end of the weekend, we should be able to fit the puzzle pieces a little better.
According to Master's Post, he should be making a new post very shortly.
Anyone up for a chase?
2567. Patrap
..Nagin not in Charge of Pumping Stations..And the man was taken out of Context..his statement was in regards to the lack of progress Ny has experienced in getting the WTC site up and going again.....Not unlike the National Opinions of New orleans to recover from an event that is unprecedented in US History..and we only 3 days shy of a year..he speaks with clarity..but some dont like to hear the truth..and some people..if they dont wanna know...U cant tell um...
hurricane79

I see what u mean
In fact on the short wave loop you can see a thin blue line representing a feeder to that position coming in from the SW into the SE side of the circulation
nash28- glad to see you are back. now cool off and enjoy the chaos. lol
I would go out on a limb later today and try to choose what area in the gulf might be hit, only if the Dynamical models would agree with the rest of the models. They seem to be the South outliers and are making the consensus track too far West, and South
I just spent about 120.00 bucks for 45 gallon of gas...man that sucks
2572. Patrap
..LOL..and thats all Im gonna say bout that..Now I gotta find Ernesto!
yeah kman, the center is where ot should be for intensification


This is one thing that all needs to heed..If ya live anywhere on the gulf..your tank should be full,cause everyone will be thinking that in a day or two
Ernesto looking rather healthy this morning... I expect cane status by tonight or tomorrow

EastCoastWx.net Forums
I didn't mean it as a political statement as much as people should listen to the experts on weather and follow their advise rather than their local leaders. For Katrina, I knew that I was leaving Friday afternoon when I saw the computer models. That is why I am following what is being said here. I get out before most people do. I hate driving in traffic!
2577. Patrap
...out to cut the Grass..wackit.alil..C-yall later...
TX, what do you think of that L off of Jax, is it a ULL?
Too many of the models have ernesto hitting nw florida. They all have him turning north once he gets into the GOM...time to go buy gas.
Thel and SJ here's what NWS weather discussion had to say about the low off the SE:

.UPDATE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF JAX HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE
INLAND TODAY AS THE LOW DRIFTS SOUTH TODAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA BEHIND SHORT WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC ACROSS N FL. CURRENT POP FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS.

.MARINE...WIND DIRECTIONS VARY FROM NE OVER THE GA WATERS TO W OVER
THE FL WATERS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST BEYOND THE WATERS.
EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE OR E ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS LOW DRIFTS S AND SEABREEZE FORMS.

&&

.UPDATE...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG/LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH IFR
POSSIBLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS...MORE LIKELY AT GNV AND POINTS SOUTH.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

MZ/MT

......PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......
.SYNOPSIS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST WITH DRY AIR ALOFT FUNNELING SOUTH BEHIND THE AXIS
AND NOW HAS MADE IT TO THE FL GA BORDER. WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED NEAR I-10 CORRIDOR...EXTENDING OFFSHORE AND
CONNECTED TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 60 NM OFFSHORE THE NE FL
COAST. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. WSR 88D INDICATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OFF THE NE FL COAST SPIRALING AROUND
THE WEAK LOW (AND REMAINING OFFSHORE) WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND ALSO REMAINING
OFFSHORE.

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ACROSS SE GA AND
MAKING IT INTO EXTREME NE FL. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM AS IT
APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THE DRY AIR PUSHING SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A N-S POP DISTRIBUTION FROM 20 PCT ACROSS THE EXTREME
N CWA TO LIKELY POPS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE. MAIN CONCERNS TODAY AGAIN WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 2+ INCHES IN A FEW AREAS) AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW...COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AREAS
ONLY MAKE IT TO THE UPPER 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF STORMS. INLAND
SE GA WILL SEE MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S DUE TO THE DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND MORE SUNSHINE. WILL ALSO SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG DUE TO
THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEWPOINTS LOWER TO MID 70S) AND
DRY AIR ALOFT.

SUNDAY...HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH MOVES SURFACE
HIGH WELL TO THE NORTH...FURTHER EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO VEER TO A MORE SE DIRECTION. DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A N-S POP DISTRIBUTION WITH 20 PCT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND
LIKELY WELL SOUTH (MARION CO). THE NAM MOVES A SURFACE LOW
TO THE WEST TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND
FEEL THE LOW IS SPURIOUS.
2581. nash28
I've been thinking NE Gulf since early yesterday and right now, I do not see anything that changes my thinking.

It will be very crucial as to how Ernesto spins off Cuba. Not writing anything in stone here, but anywhere from West Coast FL to Al/FL Panhandle at this point.
magicfan1423, when you get a masters you have an area that you will study. You all take the
same clases(more or less), but you will have an area that you will research on. For me that area was tropical cyclone genisis. This doesn't make me an expert forecaster and i've said it 100 times(or seems like it). However, studying one area of storms does to at least make you have some knowledge of other areas.

If you read my post you will read that I didn't eliminate anybody yet. I did mention that the danger to the FL PENISULA was getting less. If you disagree look at a map, the further west this comes, less likely and more extreme any turn would have to be to hit them.

The PANHANDLE is an absolutly different story.
I just have a hard time with a motion with an eastward component with our current setup. Might it happen, obviously, but right now the only place I could even see the possiblity would be in the northern gulf. At that point its too far north to hit the penisula. The goodnews is that some good windshear would accompany any eastward component.

To be honest even though this storm so far has been the little engine that could, I still have an idea that the shear won't lessen up quite as much as they say and I could show you at least 10 discusions of storms in almost the exact situation where said storm dies.
EastCoastwx I expect cane status before Jamaica
Posted By: hurricane79 at 10:16 AM EDT on August 26, 2006.
kmanislander, If you overlay the tropical forecast points over that visible loop you will see that the center appears to be right under that first TS icon.

Wouldn't that TS point be the 8 a.m. position?
If anyone is up for chasing this badboy, just let me know.
OK could someone tell me why in the world we keep getting rain here in southeast LA?? It has been raining forever and supposed to continue. I hate rain...lol.
I agree with you pensacolastorm..no lines out there right now!! I'm over here in perdido
Amazed that the GFS/ECMWF have not developed this system (or keep it minimal). Time will tell. Environment aloft should be ideal once it gets into the GOM. Best landfall is anywhere between TX and FL at this point. NHC is on it.
Posted By: EastCoastWx at 2:25 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
Ernesto looking rather healthy this morning... I expect cane status by tonight or tomorrow

EastCoastWx.net Forums


He needs to slow down a bit! Ernesto is flattening out in the front, getting into the ULL ahead.
And TX, like told guygee, that post wasn't to attack your knowledge, i can tell that you are very knowledgable in tropical weather, i was just shocked that you ruled out Fl like i told guygee. I just don't want to see anyone unprepared again here in FL, we don't need that, it was horrible in 2004, and last year. Sorry if i seemed hostile.
txweather where did you get your masters?
Tropical Discussion for Saturday, 26th August 2006 10:15amAST
An Upper Level Ridge is centered over the Eastern United States with a 250mb Upper Level High (ULH) located over the Extreme Northern Texas/Louisiana Border.

An Upper Level trough extend down form Extreme eastern Canada in the SW Caribbean Sea, to east of Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are enhance along the trough with a surface low picked up on 850mbar streamlines winds just of the coast Georgia/Florida.

An Upper Level Low/TUTT is centered South of Cuba, extending a trough into the South Caribbean Sea moving SW due to the force of a broad expanding Upper Level Ridge in the Eastern Caribbean sea.

A surface High is located near the Florida Keys.

A tropical Wave has moved inland over Nicaragua.

At 8amAST, Tropical Storm Ernesto was located 15N/70.6W, moving WNW at 15mph. Ernesto has winds of 50mph and a MCP of 997mbars. Ernesto will continue to move WNW then NW trough the Caribbean Sea. (More details on Ernesto This Afternoon)

Tropical Depression Debby is located in the Open Atlantic at 25.3N/46.7W, moving NW at 13mph. Debby has winds of 35mph and MCP of 1009mbars. The TD will continue to meander in the open Atlantic.

A surface High is located in the Eastern North Atlantic, with ridging all the way to NW Atlantic.

By Weather456
pcola doug..problem with filling up the cars now is you will need it again by the time this one is near
i think dr. masters is waiting for the 11am advisory
2595. salter
nash28
i agreed with you last wek and i still agree with your thinking still
z-hills
yeah that was the 8 AM position, but it has only moved about 35 miles WNW since then
Good to hear TX, thanks. But have u looked at that low off the coast of Jax.. What could that do?
PP is right. That ULL is very close now and will be putting a LOT of shear on Ernesto. The ULL aint moving very quick either... Who's gonna go slower...?
well folks i'm outta here. goin' to see the grandkids. if they are not to rambunkous(?) i'll c'ya this evening.
Well my Saturday plan has changed. Test the generator, fill up the gas cans, start making ice...still better than yardwork.
Hmmm - Jim Cantore is in Biloxi, Mississippi right now for Katrina's aniversary. If Ernesto stays on the track he's on, they won't be moving him to much to the west from where he is! LOL
Dang it, I just wrote a long explain on when the models come out and it went poof in to cyber land....

Try to nutshell it here. GFDS, GFDL, Ukmet, Nogaps, and CMC all have runs that start at 12Z and 00Z. 8am and 8pm. THese are the global models and it takes about 8hours for them to ingest the data and give answers. There fore the next runs from these models we will see around 2pm even though they were run at 8am. The GFS, GFDL, and Ukmet all run at 6z and 18z also. 2am and 2pm.

The BAM models and others are much less data inntesive and they will come out about an hour after they were run. So at 2pm this afternoon. We should start seeing the 12z run of the major models coming out, and they will start ingesting the 18z data for the next run at that time. The BAM models as well asa some others should be out around 3pm, and they will be the 18z run because they run faster.

Hope that helped a little.

You can find the models here. Make sure to use the more links at the bottom of the page.

Also check out the Quick Links page for some of the best imagery, model, preparedness, and other weather sites on the web.

thel-I saw that :)...Looks like it will be on land before it has a chance to do anything. Also looks like the dry air above it is keeping it in check.
2603. A4Guy
Anybody know what's going on with the Coloroado U. website? Can't get anything to load and I am trying to see the latest full model run!
Thx.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 26 2006

...ERNESTO CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...NEW
WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HISPANIOLA FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

INTERESTS IN ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO APPROACHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ERNESTO
ACROSS JAMAICA. ACROSS PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE OUTER BANDS OF ERNESTO
MAY PRODUCE 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...15.1 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Posted By: Barbados at 2:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
Does anyone know if any new waves will come off Africa this week? The atlantic looks very quiet now.


It is very quite, it looks like there is an upper level feature passing over the Cape Verde's which should keep things quiet over there in the coming days.
I remember Chris was chasing an ULL and got blasted...maybe he same fate for Ernesto?
2607. GotSand
first
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 420 MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF ERNESTO SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TODAY...AND NEAR JAMAICA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
txweather if you have a Master's in MET, then you should know any long range models are a crap shoot. Although an easterly component does not present itself at the moment, what's to say tomorrow will not show a different perspective. What's to show the shear dissapating? What's to show a slower forward motion of Ernesto? ....... It's day by day at best. To rule out the western peninsula would be foolish. I've lived in FL too long to analyze a system based on long range forecasting and make crapshot predictions.
Flat-faced Ernesto is getting hit in the face with shear.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEAR
JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

11am Public Advisory.


info at data buoys DOES support a weak surface circulation off the coast of jacksonville.......

i hope Dr. Masters will address this.....
These models are starting to get me a little weary... I know it's early, and I know things will change, BUT, a New Orleans/Biloxi/Mobile hit is the most swaying right now.. of course, Like I said, that could change

HardcoreWeather.com Forums
2614. GotSand
I meant 2609
Thanks amazin!
UPDATE!!!! Located 15.1 71.2
Link newest forecast advisory on ernesto
hurricanes are totally fun when you dont actually own your own house or property
"HardcoreWeather.com Forums"

spam......
Sorry pensacolastorm, but that doesn't seem to be what's going to be happening. It looks like the ULL is moving much faster than Ernesto the west, out it's way, and an area of high pressure (ridge) is going to be building over Ernesto. These ingredients combined with very warm waters to a deep depth will be conductive for Ernesto to undergo rapid intensification before or after entering the Gulf of Mexico.
looks like there's some dry air around the Bahamas that could slide in behind the ULL (if that ULL ever gets out of the way). Thoughts?

Link

punk...appropriate
The center is exposed again.
The NHC track has shifted right slightly as well.
chasingernesto, I realize thats why I always stress it can all change. I use the models because it is all we have right now. All we can do is look at then see what seems realistic.

magicfan1423, sorry I didn't get back to you earlier(I'm on dialup and it takes a while for me to load loops). Right now its a surface reflection of ULL. These can transform over time, but with ernesto moving in soon. Have a hard time seeing that happen.
Good morning Randrewl how you doing this am.
Ernesto is slowing down....
Hardcore no matter where you live there will always be something to worry about with nature, being a weather enthusiast you might as well enjoy it.
Unfortunately I agree with you Kyle
2630. scla08
I can't get the latest track yet by the nhc..
It is way too early to tell exactly where Ernesto will end up. Regardless of the what the model solutions are saying. So anywhere between TX to FL should keep a close eye. Models will flip on each run do to differnt intializations. Computer models are notoriously bad with tropical systems, especially the GFS. GFDL can be equally as bad (even with the new package). Most model agree on a short-wave trough that will move into the South next week (TN/AR)...if this is strong enough it should lift it north. However, would n't put much faith yet.
Morning sandcrab39565. How's everything with you?
Posted By: UponCrippleCreek at 2:11 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
Can anyone tell me this:

Which models best predicted the path of Katrina and Rita last year?


Intensity-wise, the GFDL. It wasn't terrible with the tracks, either. For Wilma also, as it correctly had Wilma being stronger than Rita when it was still a TS.

As for Ernesto, it's a sheared storm, but it's holding up remarkably well and even managing some strengthening. It has an untainted supply of very warm water ahead, and as the shear lessens, it will have the potential to explode. It is a huge storm, and if it strengthens significantly, it has the potential to be as big or bigger than Ivan and Katrina. As for the path, I give it anywhere between Grand Isle, LA, and Apalachicola, FL, as a landfall destination, with a current bias to the left half of that swath because I rely on the GFDL, and I think it's breaking down the ridge too quickly allowing for a Pensacola hit. I may be wrong, but I think the highest threat right now is from Grand Isle to Mobile. IF THIS HITS NEW ORLEANS, IT WOULD HAVE PASSED OVER THE LONGEST POSSIBLE STRETCH OF THE LOOP CURRENT AS IT COULD, WHICH, AT THAT POINT, EXTENDS ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WITH IDLE SHEAR CONDITIONS LIKELY RIGHT UP TO THE COAST, IT COULD GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO THE THE PERMANENT DAGGER FOR NEW ORLEANS. THINK ABOUT IT, IF A CAT 4 OR 5 SURGE HITS NEW ORLEANS AGAIN, ALONG WITH MAJOR HURRICANE WINDS, HOW MANY LEVEES DO YOU REALLY THINK WILL BE LEFT? IF MOST OF THEM ARE GONE, THEY CAN PUMP AS MUCH AS THEY WANT. THEY COULD NOT KEEP THE WATER OUT. THERE'D BE NOWHERE TO PUT IT. A HIT BY ERNESTO TO NEW ORLEANS WOULD EFFECTIVELY END IT'S EXISTANCE. Sorry for going all STORMTOP there, but I haven't seen this distinct possibility mentioned very much, if at all, and someone needed to mention it.
It is way too early to tell exactly where Ernesto will end up. Regardless of the what the model solutions are saying. So anywhere between TX to FL should keep a close eye. Models will flip on each run do to differnt intializations. Computer models are notoriously bad with tropical systems, especially the GFS. GFDL can be equally as bad (even with the new package). Most models agree on a short-wave trough that will move into the South next week (TN/AR)...if this is strong enough it should lift it north. However, would n't put much faith yet.
The track map curves more east then the 8AM update.
2637. Zaphod
Does indeed look like it is heading N of the forecast track, at least by a little.

Zap
ya...the 11am nhc track looks the same as the old one - until the end where they turn the system more to the right than in their previous track.

Link
2639. GotSand
How can I show a JPG I have on my hard drive in this blog?
UKMET did the best with Katrina early...only model that pushed it SW vs W. GFS was horrible way too far east. ECMWF picked upon landfall in New Orleans Friday before (landfall was mon).
Hurricane Watch Issued for Jamaica.....
GotSand...It has to have a web address.
chasingernesto, I realize thats why I always stress it can all change. I use the models because it is all we have right now. All we can do is look at then see what seems realistic.

I agree whole-heartedly. Believe me, I've chased a few in my days and many more to chase. What's difficult is you don't know exactly where to go until several hours b4 landfall. Everytime I end up driving through rainbands, but I atleast try to beat out the CDO. But......I would never say any area in particular may be out of the woods. I do agree with you in the fact that an easterly component seems unlikely at this point. But if you've been following the models the past few days, notice how they've all been hinting at a digging trough steering Ernesto more to the north towards the panhandle?
Okay, there is no way that the center is exposed! If it were, there would be an area of swirling low-level clouds, instead there is a big swirling blob w/ good outflow to the western side, indicating that the center is located somewhere underneath that. Also, the center would be located underneath that big blob of convection based on the latest coordinates (15.1N, 72.2W).
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 15.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.4N 78.1W...OVER JAMAICA
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.9N 80.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.5N 84.0W...OVER WESTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 87.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
2646. GotSand
Thanx Randrewl, I have the Hurricane models from IVAN when it was in the Carribean, and I thought how the current tracks vs. Ivan's track are almost identical.
Randrewl, Playing the wait and see game but prepareing notes on possible actions we might have to take. Thats about all I can do right now. I have over 27,000 in trailers gotta to prepare to get them to safety if the threat continues.
The NHC position puts the center under deep convection.....



we'll have to see how much time this gets.... if this stalls like the last storm in the same area.....
Center is not exposed, but it is still on the western edge of the deep convection. It has been there for the past 12 to 18 hours.
2652. guygee
Posted By: StormJunkie at 1:37 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.

Anywho, Guygee, you got some coordintates. I was just trying to figure out if I could find the center myself. REally hard with the deep convection and the shear all together. That W side is really getting hammered again today. May not be too long til we get to see the center again.

Well I see I've been preempted in my efforts in finding a center. It is worth noting that the NHC position is not under the deepest convection. There is a definite lack of solid inflowing surface convergence bands on the west side of the storm, and the LLC looks rather broad and not particularly well-organized.

Recon today will be very welcome. I'll be checking in later.
catchaser...you have mail
Anyone have any input on Tampa's possibility of a hit? I mean is there anything that is expected to drop down in the gulf and push Ernesto East like Charley in 2004 or Alberto earlier this year? Trying to figure out if I need to "git me sum gas fer duh genahratuh".
The trough is splitting.......look at the latest wind shear map.
sandcrab39565...I was thinking about all that you have to worry about up there earlier. I'm thinking you may be out of this...but then that makes it someone else's problem...it's a no win situation. Keep watching.
Morning 03
You can see from the microwave from 12Z it is still on the western edge of the deepest convection...Link
2659. cdo
storm kinda looks like a square right now
Although we don't know who will be affected it looks like someone will be.

Would like to give a tip for those looking to making preparations:

Change the oil in your generator. I know 2 people that blew up their generators during Ivan and Dennis due to not thinking of this.
The wind shear map was form 8am...so the it might already be split by 11am and 2pm....
chasingernesto, I agree and TX looks like a trough will bring the front through us and then stall out, giving us some well needed significant rain. Also this should allow this sytem to go east of us. I wish you better luck on your chasing than I've had recently, I think I become a hurricane/tornado/sever thunderstorm deterent.
If there's to possible paths and I commit to one, it always seesm to go elsewhere. Maybe I should rent myself out. I'm kind of like the Anit-Jim Cantori, if I show up your safe. :)
gotsand--you've got mail!!!
GotSand, you have to upload it to the internet I believe. You can do that in your own blog. All users have their own on the top right menu
Rand you can bet my eyes are upon it.lol I am having a breifing Mon. at 3pm hope to have better idea by then.
NervousPanhandle....Yeah....seems I change the generator oil more than the autos around here.
Jamaica and the Caymans are under Hurricane Watches, those are the areas of concern at this point.
2669. cdo
you know the talking heads are already starting to compare Ernesto to the past seasons hurricanes. I hope if it turns into a hurricane it is more of a Wilma or Dennis at landfall than a Rita, Ivan, Katrina, Charley, Andrew, Camille. Mainly, those two affected a small area, both were damaging, but the scale was so much smaller.
Hey Alec.... yeah, I go to FSU. I plan on starting back this Monday as well. I got to study abroad in London, England through FSU this past summer and just got back about 2 weeks ago.

In regards to the 11am update, the Forecast path 5 days out has shifted a good amount to the right or east. Instead of it being in the central gulf, south of central Louisiana, it is now in the central gulf, south of eastern Louisiana/Mississippi.

Steve Lyons also said at 11am that specifically "Florida" and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should really watch the storm. He then also mentioned that the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, including Texas, should keep an eye out for it as well.

We shall see. I will post an updated probability later tonight.
looks like monday nite is going to be a rough one for jamaica......
weather456 did you this see the new track not looking good
sandcrab39565...Not much else to do this weekend but wait and watch.
Tornadoty - You are correct any hurricane to hit NO would be very bad. Is there a possiblity maybe. No one can predict the speed, catagory or direction of ERNESTO when it makes it into the GOM until it gets there. Yes everyone in the Gulf needs to keep an eye on the strom; but there is certainly no need to panic the people in NO yet. I don't think the good people of MS want to think about a another strike in their area either.
From 11am

Microwave data from the windsat
satellite and morning visible imagery shows that Ernesto remains
partly sheared with the low-level center near the western edge of
the very strong convective mass.
The initial intensity is set at
45 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB...and this could be a little conservative.


Is this going to another New Orleans storm? Hope it moves another direction (or dissipates - although it is very unlikely) or else it'll just be insult upon injury for New Orleans! If it does hit and does a lot of damage, maybe they should just move it somewhere else!
the current 15-20 kt of westerly shear should diminish
during the next 12-24 hr and allow Ernesto to strengthen. The
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36
hr...and steady strengthening thereafter.
As of the 11am update, Jamaica also has a hurricaen watch.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2006


the last report from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
at about 09z indicated a central pressure of 997 mb and maximum 850
mb flight-level winds of 60 kt. Microwave data from the windsat
satellite and morning visible imagery shows that Ernesto remains
partly sheared with the low-level center near the western edge of
the very strong convective mass. The initial intensity is set at
45 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB...and this could be a little conservative.

The initial motion is 285/12...a little slower than before. Other
than that...the synoptic pattern...forecast reasoning...and
forecast track for the first 72 hr are essentially unchanged since
the previous package. During this time...Ernesto should move
west-northwestward near Jamaica...the Cayman Islands...and western
Cuba. The forecast track is more problematic after 72 hr. The
large-scale models agree that the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of
Mexico will weaken as a shortwave trough digs southeastward through
the Mississippi Valley. However...there are differences in how
much weakening will occur. The ECMWF and NOGAPS call for Ernesto
to recurve over the eastern Gulf of Mexico...while the UKMET shows
enough ridge to keep Ernesto moving west-northwestward. The GFS
and Canadian models are in between...calling for slow motion over
the central Gulf. Complicating matters further is a lack of
run-to-run consistency. Given the uncertainty...the forecast track
after 72 hr calls for a slower forward speed...with a more
northward motion than in the previous package. Overall..the new
forecast track is in best agreement with the FSU superensemble.

The large-scale models continue to forecast the development of a
large upper-level anticyclone along the forecast track...although
so far they have been too fast in doing so. If the models are
correct...the current 15-20 kt of westerly shear should diminish
during the next 12-24 hr and allow Ernesto to strengthen. The
intensity forecast calls for slow strengthening during the first 36
hr...and steady strengthening thereafter. The intensity forecast
calls for Ernesto to reach 100 kt intensity in 120 hr...in good
agreement with the SHIPS and GFDL models...and the storm could get
stronger than that. It should be noted that the intensity
guidance...for as of yet undetermined reasons...calls for little
intensification after 96 hr even though there are no obvious
inhibiting factors.


In summary...Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane
as it moves across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the
progress of this system.



Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 26/1500z 15.1n 71.2w 45 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 15.8n 73.0w 50 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 17.0n 75.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 18.4n 78.1w 60 kt...over Jamaica
48hr VT 28/1200z 19.9n 80.5w 70 kt...over water
72hr VT 29/1200z 22.5n 84.0w 80 kt...over western Cuba
96hr VT 30/1200z 24.5n 87.0w 90 kt...over water
120hr VT 31/1200z 27.0n 88.5w 100 kt


$$
forecaster Beven
pensacola area is just like a magnet for this stuff..as dr masters put it last season..pensacola has become the bowling alley for storms entering the gulf..it sux
Very much looking forward to Jeff Masters analysis of today's data...thought he would post a new blog this AM
Taz, it has shift to the right....not good for NO
Houston/Galveston is no longer in the "cone of uncertainty".......or what I like to call "The Pit of Despair".

Ok...I've been lurking for a while and I finally decided to jump in on the discussions. So hello everyone! As you can see from my handle, I live in South MS.

I don't have a degree in meterology, nor have I studied anything beyond what one can find on the Internet. I've considered it, but right now I'm finishing up on one in software engineering.

So what's the news on this Ernesto?
2687. nash28
TampaTwin....

No need to panic or buy the whole grocery store at this point. That being said, the models have been shifting northward and east with each run and whether or not Tampa is in the line of fire will depend on a few things....

#1- How far west does Ernesto go before he finds the weakness in the ridge and begin to turn.

#2- How strong will that trough be? Right now, Ernesto is likely to pass over Cuba. The current track at least through Cuba is almost identical to Charley in '04.

#3- Ernesto is slowing down right now. The longer he takes to get to the GOM, the more chance and further east the ridge has to weaken.

In a nutshell, still so many variables and it is very difficult right now to get a good grasp. The average error 5 days out is over 300MI. Keep your eyes open. And as always, I will be here to offer what I can.
2688. Patrap
Dr. m compiling new info into blog update..to be posted soon...
Seems like I remember last year with Katrina the trend was to shift left, with Rita the trend was to shift right.
guess you have to agree with that guy from utah last nite..when all models showed tx/la..he was saying mobile/pensacola..looks right on for now
2691. cdo
looks like shear may of picked up a bit? Looks like it lowers to the 10kt range then picks up to 20kts off and on, never ending cycle. Supposedly, conditions will approve for strengthening, supposedly.
: Weather456 not good not good and this is going right overe the big eddy in the gulf on the way to LA
From 11am

Microwave data from the windsat
satellite and morning visible imagery shows that Ernesto remains
partly sheared with the low-level center near the western edge of
the very strong convective mass. The initial intensity is set at
45 kt in agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB...and this could be a little conservative.


The center may not be exposed but the deepest convection is east. Also the deepest convection has entered higher shear since that microwave.
LOL txweather, the last one I seriously missed was Dennis. I had 1 of the last 2 hotel rooms in Pensacola reserved at 11 pm. I went to bed, got up at 6 am and it was too late to make it (being Ivan screwed up the I-10 corridor for me. I would've had to drive through the CDO on the highway, which I really don't care for doing. I backed out on Katrina and Rita last year, so I don't count them. If I had to take a crapshot right now, which is exactly what it is; I'd be seriously watching the hotel situation in the Mobile / Pensacola area.

Are you planning on furthering your edu? PhD maybe? Chasing is some of the best experience you can get for your Dissertation.
when y'all say exposed center, are you referring to no cloud cover?? I'm just wondering because it's definitely a CLOSED center. By exposed do you mean that the eywall is not visible from the clouds to the sea?? Someone clear this up for me please, because I thought that an eyewall that was visible through to the sea (like a 5 mile wide tornado) was stronger than a center covered by clouds.
Floridaboy you're completely wrong! Shear has been weakening over the system and should be down to near nothing within 12-24hrs, as the NHC has forecasted. After that, warm water to a deep depth and an anticyclone forecasted to build over Ernesto will allow for rapid strengthening before or after entering the Gulf. It was a nice try though, and just because you say it's going to happen doesn't mean it will, so don't be so confident.
Pace, FL here,
nice post on bowling alley.. i believe it..
someone give Dr. M a call and see if he is up yet. can't wait to read
GL all
2698. Patrap
..as of Now ..Ernesto seems to be enveloped in a fair to moderate enviro for steady state or slow strenghting..The ULL has given the cyclone a slight sw to Ne negative tilt..but believe this to b transitory.The convection burst to the right of the western COC has the Potential to reorganise a new center..slightly west of Last fix..the cyclone looks overall..impressive still ,as it steadily builds in height
chasingernesto-why the concern about hotel rooms in pensacola? everything here will be empty come late next week
fldude99,

No one disagreed that his trach was possbile or even likely. It was the fact that he has rulled out TX and LA 5 days before a storm hits. There is still a chance that TX and a good chance that LA will see this system, and so they need to be prepared if they arent already.
Posted By: truecajun at 3:06 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
when y'all say exposed center, are you referring to no cloud cover?? I'm just wondering because it's definitely a CLOSED center. By exposed do you mean that the eywall is not visible from the clouds to the sea?? Someone clear this up for me please, because I thought that an eyewall that was visible through to the sea (like a 5 mile wide tornado) was stronger than a center covered by clouds.


exposed being a lack of convection over the center. It is closed.
2703. Dan187
000
WTPA32 PHFO 261501
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

AT 500 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.9 WEST OR ABOUT 570 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 1075 MILES EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 160 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 920 MB...27.17 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM HST POSITION...18.7 N...177.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...920 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM HST.

i should say around the center.
Morning JP
So many comments are flying by I have yet to see my post...but I'll try again. Looking at all the models, it looks like half go East and Half go West...and *splitting the baby* is Central LA....but I still have a sneaking suspicion it'll go a more Rita trek (and please don't flame me for expressing a hunch). Does anyone else have that hunch? I live down here, and trust me: Katrina was hell on earth, but the mass exodus for Rita was a close second. I am not looking forward to that again. Besides...it's my birthday....
cloud tops appear to be warming...for now at least.

Link

chasingernesto-why the concern about hotel rooms in pensacola? everything here will be empty come late next week

Hurricanes have a tendency to fill up rooms quickly.
How about Hurricane IOKE. This storm appears to be heading into conditions even more favorable for intensification. This will likely be the strongest cyclone ever on planet Earth
Hey anyone-

Is there something going on off the Northeast coast of FL??? I have been watching for a few days.
true ernesto..but not when the hotels are in the center of the cone
2713. melly
Lake Worth Florida here, Palm Beach county, I am relieved that the track is not towards me, But I can feel that sickening feeling in the stomach for the people in the Gulf coasts. Know it all too well
2714. Patrap
..Comparing real-time Cyclones..to past or previous tracks ..are not ..not a factor in determining the forecast of a real-time Event..history can be our Guide..but not our friend in Forcasting real-time Systems
2715. cosmoK
Just Wondering
Hunches are meaningless

Cosmo
2716. Dan187
000
WTPA42 PHFO 261505
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE IOKE IS ONCE AGAIN A CATEGORY 5 STORM...WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/1130Z RANGING FROM 6.5 TO 7.0...OR 127 TO 140KT. 1130Z ADT ESTIMATE WAS 7.0. RECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP TEMPS REACHING -79C WITH EYE TEMPS AT +9.9C. A VERY SYMMETRICAL RING OF -72 TO -75C CLOUD TOPS NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE. THAT SAID...HAVE INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 140 KT.

ONCE AGAIN THE BIG ISSUE WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS THAT THE UKMET TRACK BOUNCED OFF THE DATE LINE...RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS MIRROR IMAGE TRACK...EASTBOUND BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS THREW ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS OFF...BENDING THEM BACK SHARPLY EASTWARD. THAT SAID...HAVE BEEN FORCED TO IGNORE ALL CONSENSUS MODELS ONCE AGAIN...AND GO WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMM...BAMD...ECMWF...AND GFS. THE GFS SHOWS IOKE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH AN ANTICYCLONE LOCATED AROUND 25N UNTIL IT REACHES ABOUT 170E, THEN THE ANTICYCLONE STALLS IN RESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH NEAR 155E. IOKE THEN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH...AND BEGINS A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 500 MB TREND OF THE GFS OVER THE LAST 3 RUNS HAS BEEN TO DIG THE TROUGH MORE DEEPLY AT 155E BY WED 30/18Z...HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT BE IN TIME TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING A SERIOUS THREAT TO WAKE ISLAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT MOVE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION AFTER THAT. THIS TRACK CONTINUES TO HAVE SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS FOR WAKE ISLAND IN THE 96 TO 120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKING IT JUST NORTH OF THE ISLAND.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AT 1030Z WHICH SHOWED WELL DEVELOPED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...ONE WITH A RADIUS OF ABOUT 10 NM...AND ANOTHER OUT AT ABOUT 4O NM. THE INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING. THE CYCLE WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO THAT SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN AT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...IT WAS KEPT CONSTANT UNTIL RECURVATURE LATE IN THE FORECAST. LOOKING AT CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS AROUND IOKE AND HOW THE STORM HAS RESPONDED..BY INTENSIFYING AGAIN TO A CATEGORY 5...THE STORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...HOWEVER THERE IS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STORM ENVIRONMENT. ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONES AT ABOUT 150W AND 155E FLANK A HUGE ANTICYCLONE COVERING THE MID PACIFIC...AND IOKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BENEFIT FROM THE RESULTING LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN. IN ADDITION...SST VALUES WARM TO 29C ALONG THE TRACK.

IF INDEED IOKE MAINTAINS CATEGORY 4 OR 5 STATUS FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...A PRELIMINARY SURVEY OF THE RECORDS SHOW THAT THIS COULD BE A WORLD RECORD FOR LONGEVITY OF A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/1500Z 18.7N 177.9W 140 KT
12HR VT 27/0000Z 18.3N 179.2W 135 KT
24HR VT 27/1200Z 17.8N 178.9E 140 KT
36HR VT 28/0000Z 17.4N 177.0E 140 KT
48HR VT 28/1200Z 17.2N 174.9E 140 KT
72HR VT 29/1200Z 17.2N 170.9E 140 KT
96HR VT 30/1200Z 18.9N 167.8E 135 KT
120HR VT 31/1200Z 21.7N 164.8E 130 KT


$$
2717. refill
Five day predicted track doesnt look good for New Orleans...
2718. gatagus
Hello gang....first post here...from Savannah, ga.....been long time weather nut....I think it is safe to say...the main factor to the direction of Ernie once it enters the gom...will be any troughs which dig down and weaken any high pressure...that will be the ultimate factor in the direction of ernie..of course with these storms timing is everything...by tueday of next week we all will have a much better idea...until then its only guessing....
2719. melly
What's scary about the gulf, If it survives, someone is going to get hammered.
fldude, you live in Pen?
2721. Patrap
..ioke not a player in this theater..a beautiful pic..but some may take the advisories..as confusing..to Ernesto..a note
2722. franck
The landfall has everything to do with the forward motion of the storm, and it is not predictable when a storm might double its forward speed or slow it by half. If the storm suddenly slowed to 7 knots, all the landfall forecasts would change, and that could happen any time. So pretty much all is hedged science.
Good Morning All

Much appreciation for, on balance, some great analysis. Yesterday it looked as Ernesto was on the ropes. Today he looks quite a bit healthier. I understand the dynamics with regards to the ULL and its forecasted departure.

At this stage, what are the chances that Enrnesto doesn't survive the next 24-36 hours? Thanks in advance.
Link

More model runs are out.... I didn't see these earlier but here they are. A clear turn to the North and even NNE is being predicted by many of these models.... Is this a one run thing or will it sustain itself, who knows... we will see later today. Seems a lot of agreement though in the models taking it north towards Florida/Mississippi area.
2725. nash28
JP: I meant the track up until Cuba is about like Charley's. Before the Gulf.
2726. Patrap
..27.0n 87.5w in 120hrs..problamatic for many..in GOM n coast
franck...and the trend has been in Ernesto slowing.
2729. Patrap
..remind the blogs..the consensus out past 72hrs is incomplete @ best..the SHIPS..Superensemble..all..should have better late wekend runs..as more UL patts derived from the G4 flights will help swing the consensus into finer view,,com Mon am...or late Sun evening
I'd hate for it to hit here, but I wouldn't want to wish it on anyone else either. Just hope it doesn't strengthen too much.

Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst.
yup..pcola
Cane - the probability of Ernesto dying is probably 2% (forecasted by the NHC).
I am actually in milton which is like 20miles away from pensacola.. If you are talking to me anyway..lol

Ah yes. I know where Milton is. Been there a few times to see some friends.
2734. melly
Just where in the USA would be the safest place to live without Hurricanes, Tornadoes, fires, mudslides, earthquakes..Has anyone ever done a study on that??
2735. afs
The whole levee system surrounding New Orlans is still seriously compromised. All the Army Corps of Engineers did was chicken wire and chewing gum together some patches to the levee system. The pumping system in NO is still running at less than 1/3 capacity.

Strong tropical storm conditions in New Orleans could breach the levees again and fill the city up with water all over again.
WELLLLLL..... Last night and yesterday I was saying a certain turn and that TX and LA were Certainly out of the woods... everyone saying I didn't know what I was talking about and so on...

wwwweeeelllllllll, look what we have this morning! Texas, La, out of the woods. That turn to the north will happen a little sooner and I think the AL coast (with perhaps a sliver of FL and MS coasts) MOST at risk.

There will be a definite turn. The Western and eastern Gulf are definitely out of the woods. Question is, how strong will he be?

Maybe a Cat 3...

Good thing NEW ORLEANS hasn't rebuilt yet..
if the storm is slowing down dos that man it could get a lot stonger then forcast?
2738. Patrap
..good advice from the Southmissgirl..Observe & prepare..always a great combo..and keeps the mind clear to make good decision...
New blog!
2741. Patrap
...irresponsible post..txs...
Melly..Oregon is a great place..hopefully be there myself in a couple yrs
Charley's turn was caused by a cold front, there isn't one to turn Ernesto. A FL landfall could happen, but I'd say the odds are pretty long. My money is somewhere between the TX/LA border and Pensacola.

WOW at Ioke - GFDL takes it to 179kt/871mb !

NEW BLOG
FLboy

Nice to see someone else from Milton.

I'm off Avalon south of I 10
2746. melly
fldude99.I'm thinking around Cartersville Ga.
Taz, slowing down will have more of an affect on its eventual track than strength. In the short term it will help with the strength as it allows the ULL to get out of his way.
Posted By: wxwatcher at 3:15 PM GMT on August 26, 2006.
WELLLLLL..... Last night and yesterday I was saying a certain turn and that TX and LA were Certainly out of the woods... everyone saying I didn't know what I was talking about and so on...

wwwweeeelllllllll, look what we have this morning! Texas, La, out of the woods. That turn to the north will happen a little sooner and I think the AL coast (with perhaps a sliver of FL and MS coasts) MOST at risk.

There will be a definite turn. The Western and eastern Gulf are definitely out of the woods. Question is, how strong will he be?

Maybe a Cat 3...

Good thing NEW ORLEANS hasn't rebuilt yet..
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
You know, my guess is Texas is out of the woods.....but for you to be so absolute is irresponsible.
2751. melly
fldude99.I have in the back of my mind about a volcano in Oregon.
NEW BLOG
portland, OR..that's the place
thanks vortex, that is what I thought and happy birthday to whoever is in the Rita area, I lost your post and couldn't remember your name. I'm in the New Iberia/ Lafayette area, South Central LA. We havn't got hit since Andrew. then there was Lili that disappeared in the middle of the night. If she would have hit, things would have been pretty bad around here. Some say the faithful folks around here prayed her away.
Reason I say about the hotel rooms is because irregardless if the center of the cone is coming over you, the hotel rooms will be booked from evacuees, more so if you're in the center of the cone.

Three things to consider with Ernesto: (in order of precedence)

#1 Forward Acceleration - The slower the storm moves, the more likelihood of strengthening and a more easterly component in the GOM.

#2 ULL Shear - Can be overcome by #1 or ULL dissipation.

#3 Troughing / Ridging at higher latitude - Gives direction and location of landfall, but as well, hinders on #1.

This is what makes stormchasing fun, yet stressful!
IOKE bounced off the International Date Line? That's just too funny
chocolate aquarium Nagin better get the buses started... If this were to hit anywhere, I hope it is weakening. If it does make landfall as a tropical system, I would think the best place for our economy would be NO, then would stop dumping fed dollars into a sinking ship...
One is for certain if Ernesto does become a system to be reckoned with in the GOM, gas prices will skyrocket........again.....and don't even get me started on that Iranian dips**t of a President. Another factor in gas prices.
hi all does anyone think once earnie passes over the tip of cuba . that it might turn to the north thanks good luck evryone in gom
So I'm from South Florida and I know about the unpredictability of hurricanes. BUT...I planned my first vacation in three years on a budget Carnival cruise whose path happens to be precisely the path of Ernesto (leave Miami on Mon., Key West, Tues, Cancun, Wed.) I'm trying to tell myself it is not a conspiracy. Can any of you experts guess where Carnival might take me instead? Thanks for your wisdom
You can see my cruise route at this link Link
hello Milton and Pensacola...Ft Walton here.
Have you noticed that Ernesto is all the
talk around town? It is here. The memories of Ivan and Dennis are still to vivid to be looking at another CAT 3. Still too many blue
roofs!
2765. Patrap
..sess the new orleans non-humor..and remembers His Cousin ..Patricia.A retired PHD in Nursing..Lost to Katrinas wrath,a Ne w Orleanian..Killed in katrina..in Bay St.Louis,Miss..Found..Sept 4th..
2766. Patrap
.Ernie has done what he set out to accomphish in last nights convective round.He was able to sustain the concevection..and consolidate the overall column..and start his Engine..Now.How well can the hurricane navigate? The Mona passage and the futre forecast track..depends on how well he does..in the next 24...