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Ernesto disorganized; more fires, extreme heat for Oklahoma

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:25 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

A disorganized Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to speed westward at 23 mph across the Caribbean. Ernesto has brought sporadic heavy rains to Jamaica today, and Kingston has picked up 0.51" of rain as of noon, and recorded top sustained winds of 22 mph. Ernesto looks very unhealthy on visible satellite loops, with its low-level circulation center a naked swirl exposed to view with almost no heavy thunderstorm activity near the center. However, the storm does have some rather far-flung spiral bands, and these bands are bringing occasional heavy downpours to Haiti, western Cuba, Jamaica, and the southwest Dominican Republic. This morning's flight by the Hurricane Hunters found that Ernesto had a very high central pressure of 1006 mb and top winds near 50 mph. The latest wind shear analysis from the SHIPS model shows moderate shear of 10 - 15 knots affecting the storm, but there must be some wind shear the satellites are not able to detect affecting Ernesto, given its disorganized appearance. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air to the west, and this dry air is also interfering with Ernesto's organization.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image with 375 meter resolution taken of Ernesto by the new Suomi NPP satellite at 1:39 pm EDT August 4, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had a flare-up of intense thunderstorms, and had top winds of 60 mph. Image credit: University of Wisconsin Madison CIMSS.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto's rapid forward speed of 23 mph has been part of the reason for its lack of intensification, but the storm is expected to slow down Monday and Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure passing to the north. This slowing, in combination with low wind shear, a moister environment, and increasing heat energy in the ocean, may allow Ernesto to strengthen some before making landfall in Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Tuesday night. However, the storm will be passing very close to the north coast of Honduras, putting a portion of its circulation over land and limiting intensification potential. It is unlikely Ernesto will become a hurricane in the Caribbean; NHC is giving just a 19% chance that this will occur. The main threat from Ernesto will be heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Mexico, and Jamaica. The track forecast for Ernesto has become a bit easier, since the storm's current disorganization and more southerly path make will make it more difficult for the storm to make a northwesterly turn into the Gulf of Mexico like the UKMET and GFDL models are predicting. A stronger Ernesto would have been more likely to turn northwest under the influence of a trough of low pressure passing to the north. If Ernesto survives its crossing of the Yucatan Peninsula, the potential exists for it to re-strengthen over the Bay of Campeche, and make a second landfall on Mexico's coast on Friday, between Tampico and Veracruz. It's pretty unlikely that Ernesto will hit the U.S.-- though Brownsville, Texas could see some rain from Ernesto's outer spiral bands on Friday, if the storm survives that long.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Ernesto, showing the exposed low-level center--a swirl due south of Jamaica--and only very limited heavy thunderstorm activity surrounding the center.

Tropical Storm Florence
Tropical Storm Florence continues to plow westward at 14 mph over the Eastern Atlantic, and is not a threat to any land areas for next five days. The SHIPS model is predicting a moderate 5 - 15 knots of wind shear for Florence Sunday and Monday, but the shear will increase to the high range as Florence encounters an upper-level trough of low pressure on Tuesday. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis shows that a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of Florence, and this dry air will likely cause problems for the storm. Ocean temperature are near 26 - 26.5°C, which is right at the threshold for where a tropical storm can typically exist. It is possible that Florence could pose a threat to Bermuda next weekend, if the storm survives that long. Both the GFS and ECMWF models dissipate Florence before then.

Historic heat wave in Oklahoma
A second day of destructive fires affected Oklahoma on Saturday, thanks to extreme heat and drought, low humidities, and strong winds in advance of an approaching cold front. At 3 pm CDT Saturday, Oklahoma City had a temperature of 107°, a humidity of 19%, and winds of 16 mph gusting to 22 mph. The Oklahoma fires have destroyed at least 125 homes. The high temperature in Oklahoma City on Saturday reached 109°, the 12th warmest temperature recorded in the city since records began in 1891. Friday's high of 113° tied for the warmest temperature in city history.


Figure 3. Highway 48 is covered in smoke as flames continue, Saturday, Aug 4, 2012, east of Drumright, OK. Image credit: Associated Press.

The only comparable Oklahoma heat wave: August 1936
The only heat wave in Oklahoma history that compares to the August 2012 heat wave occurred during the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936, the hottest summer in U.S. history. Oklahoma City experienced three days at 110° that summer, and a record streak of 22 straight days with a temperature of 100° or hotter. Those numbers are comparable to 2012's: three days at 110° or hotter, and a string of 18 consecutive days (so far) with temperatures of 100° or hotter. The weak cold front that passed though Oklahoma Saturday will bring temperatures about 10° cooler over the next few days, but high temperatures are still expected to approach 100° in Oklahoma City Sunday through Tuesday. It's worth noting that Oklahoma City has experienced only 11 days since 1890 with a high of 110° or greater. Three of those days were in 2011, three in 2012, and three in the great Dust Bowl summer of 1936.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on July's heat extremes in the U.S.


Figure 4. Most of Oklahoma has experienced nine consecutive days with highs of 100° or more, and many regions, including Oklahoma City, have had a streak of eighteen such days. Image credit: Oklahoma Mesonet.

Severe thunderstorm complex forces evacuation of Lollapalooza
A organized complex of severe thunderstorms developed over Eastern Iowa and Northern Illinois late Saturday afternoon, forming a dangerous bow echo that swept through Chicago, forcing the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) logged over 150 reports of wind damage from the storm, with five of the thunderstorms containing winds in excess of hurricane force (74 mph.) And just yesterday, my daughter was bemoaning her misfortune at not being able to get tickets to the show! The thunderstorm complex traveled about 300 miles from Eastern Iowa to Ohio, generating winds gust in excess of 58 mph along most of its path, meeting the definition of a derecho.


Figure 5. Radar image of the severe thunderstorm complex that spawned a dangerous bow echo over Chicago, which forced the evacuation of the Lollapalooza music festival.

Jeff Masters
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
Storm clouds overwhelming Chicago
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
IN THE EYE OF THE STORM
Sheets of rain & darkness!
Storm damage
Storm damage
Straight line winds during a severe thunderstorm left crumpled metal and splintered wood behind in Frytown, Iowa

Hurricane Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. yoboi
Quoting sunlinepr:


bout to make a slight turn..
2002. Grothar
Quoting BenBIogger:


That dreaded turn hasn't commence yet? Well it has slowed down considerably compared to Saturday.


That is usually when it is ready to make a turn.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Has it moved at all MSX?


Doesn't seems so. LOL.

I've seen this happen several times with TCs that are trying to fix their core structure. This time looks to be no different.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yeah don't worry about it yet. That's just one run of a storm that doesn't exist yet. It may not even be on the next runs. Sorry I didn't want to alarm anyone.


We refer to those as "Phantom/Ghost" storms. GFS has been on the ball lately, trackwise and pre-development. IMO
0z ECMWF brings Ernesto into the Yucatan as a moderate tropical storm but takes it on such a southerly track that it doesn't have anytime over the Bay of Campeche to strengthen.

0z ECMWF at 96 Hours (Hard to see the low, but it is onshore in Mexico near the SE BOC)

Quoting Grothar:
I would expect it to begin making its turn to the WNW soon.
Hope it is or Honduras will receive the first landfall if it doesn`t turn west northwest tomorrow afternoon Ernesto will probably make landfall in here.
2008. yqt1001
Quoting MississippiWx:


Doesn't seems so. LOL.

I've seen this happen several times with TCs that are trying to fix their core structure. This time looks to be no different.


Wouldn't this also explain the SW movement recon found earlier?
Quoting yoboi:


give more money to congress and senate to spend???lol
so long as they spend it on things like more Dopplars, new-improved QUIKscat, revitalization of flood plains... heck yeah! Schools that teach better math science and communication skills to the next generations of Americans so they can take their place? Absolutely!
2011. Patrap
Tenacious "E"

Quoting Grothar:


Good observation. Here is the image and also a link of what you described.





Link


Thanks, Grothar. I think we are in for a real treat tomorrow. Should be plenty to talk about on the blog.
Quoting MississippiWx:
New update:



Taking shape once again. Good TCHP near by.
First look at a satellite tonight, there is evidence the center could be on the western edge of the convection, near 81W. (Click Image For Link)

2015. Grothar
I have to go to bed. But if any of you ever want to drop and ask a question on anything like economics, Anthropology or any subject that interest you, you may also WU mail me. I will answer as best I can. I actually do more than post funny one-liners. It would be fun for me, too. As I mentioned before I also want to do a daily blog called "100 Years Ago Today" taken from my own diaries.
Quoting yqt1001:


Wouldn't this also explain the SW movement recon found earlier?


Yeah, it looked like the center was moving erratically earlier as it was trying to find itself underneath convection.
Quoting yoboi:


read the label made in china like everything else...



Oh really?



As an aerospace engineer let me tell you something.

None of that is made in china nor was our rover that just landed.


While this is OT, when someone says something completely and totally ignorant I feel obligated to correct it.




None of this hardware was "made in china" nor are the spacecraft that make tracking Ernesto from an internet blog possible.

Blog update on Ernesto and Florence

Ernesto is really organizing, not a good situation.
2020. Grothar
Quoting TomTaylor:
0z ECMWF brings Ernesto into the Yucatan as a moderate tropical storm but takes it on such a southerly track that it doesn't have anytime over the Bay of Campeche to strengthen.

0z ECMWF at 96 Hours (Hard to see the low, but it is onshore in Mexico near the SE BOC)



It should have a very good chance of developing in the Bay of Campeche, if it gets there.
Quoting Grothar:
I have to go to bed. But if any of you ever want to drop and ask a question on anything like economics, Anthropology or any subject that interest you, you may also WU mail me. I will answer as best I can. I actually do more than post funny one-liners. It would be fun for me, too. As I mentioned before I also want to do a daily blog called "100 Years Ago Today" taken from my own diaries.


I don't find your one liners funny at all. Lol. Jk
2022. Grothar
I just have one last question for all the night shift bloggers. Do you all look as bad as I do in the morning? Nite now.
Keep an eye on this buoy.

Station 42057
XD NOGAPS DON'T KNOW WHAT DO WITH ERNESTO

Stayed up late, typing w/ 1 hand, 2 c if Ernesto was going 2 try a RI..... lol .... looking good so far....
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
First look at a satellite tonight, there is evidence the center could be on the western edge of the convection, near 81W. (Click Image For Link)



Hmmm...not sure what to make of that. But I don't think it's the center.
2027. Grothar
Quoting AllStar17:


I don't find your one liners funny at all. Lol. Jk


Sure! :)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Stayed up late, typing w/ 1 hand, 2 c if Ernesto was going 2 try a RI..... lol .... looking good so far....


I think he's trying to make up for lost time Baha!!
Fresh update. Center should be right on top of 80W.

850mb



500mb



Still not aligned perfectly with each other, but it's better than 3 hours ago.

850



500

Quoting tennisgirl08:


I think he's trying to make up for lost time Baha!!
tg08, u got some cred added 2night... good discussion on Ernesto... watching that Sward drift earlier made me wonder if we were going to see him pull a Wilma or Mitch type act... meander around in that same general area to get things together, then go off in the direction of the Yucatan... not likely he'll get much past hurricane, but I expect a much improved storm will greet the dawn...
2031. emguy
Quoting Grothar:
I just have one last question for all the night shift bloggers. Do you all look as bad as I do in the morning? Nite now.


After an all nighter of Hurricane talk...I would say I have a face for radio. LOL! Gotta love the passion.
Had a nice B767 overhead, shake up the house now.
Quoting Grothar:


It should have a very good chance of developing in the Bay of Campeche, if it gets there.
Agreed, 0z GFDL shows that possibility, taking the storm further north than the other dynamic models and strengthening it into a major hurricane.

The consensus between the 0z dynamic models seems to favor it reaching the BOC, although they really don't give it much time over water or distance from land to allow for much strengthening.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Hmmm...not sure what to make of that. But I don't think it's the center.


The upper level structure leads me to believe it will be short lived if it is. Just interesting to note. It could have already reformed a center and spit out the non-productive center that was.

We have been tracking "Ernesto" since July 30.... Maybe before, watching the models...

It was just a wave or Invest 99L

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:10 PM GMT on July 30, 2012
The first African tropical wave of 2012 with a potential to develop is Invest 99L, located in the Eastern Atlantic near 9 N 36 W, midway between the Lesser Antilles Islands....
Quoting MississippiWx:
Fresh update. Center should be right on top of 80W.

850mb



500mb



Still not aligned perfectly with each other, but it's better than 3 hours ago.

850



500

looks like it's dumping the SA connection, too...
Quoting BahaHurican:
tg08, u got some cred added 2night... good discussion on Ernesto... watching that Sward drift earlier made me wonder if we were going to see him pull a Wilma or Mitch type act... meander around in that same general area to get things together, then go off in the direction of the Yucatan... not likely he'll get much past hurricane, but I expect a much improved storm will greet the dawn...


Thanks Baha! I'm off to bed now. Yes...we'll see how he looks at dawn.
Gotta get up early in the morning for work, out for now, later all
Have a wonderful night everybody!
Good night everyone! Ernesto will be interesting to look at in 6-7 hours when I get up :)
Quoting DubiousCane2012:
G'morning, everyone!

Can someone please post the 0z ECMWF run, if you can?

If there's anybody still awake out there, that is, LOL, =).


0z Euro run
Ernesto now has higher ACE than Chris.
1 2.73 Ernesto
2 2.72 Chris
2048. emguy
Quoting TomTaylor:
No problem, it was late, everyone was acting up, people just needed to get some sleep. Didn't know you had been forecasting for 25+ years, you should post more...


Thank you Tom. Keep pushing forward with meteorology!!! You are a good guy...doing good...lots of potential!

For some background, my first one to forecast was a good one, Elena in 1985, and if you know the history of her, she was a wild one.

I wonder how that would have panned out with the resources of today. I wish we would have had the tools, and even something like this back then, because people on here that are legit contribute to the overall interest of the community, through links, data, and images...and that IS great!

Something new is to be learned every day. In 27 years of doing this I have a lot of success, but I still have busts. With the weather, we will always learn something new ever day, and no 2 storms are created alike. On that note, 27 Years does not make a man a subject matter expert, just a man who loves it, chases down the info, and gets to learn something new about Earth every day.

Keep on going Tom, you are a good man.
Quoting DubiousCane2012:


Thanks, bro!


No problemo!

This is a good illustration of how Ernesto has gradually moistened the environment around him over the past couple of days. While there is still some dry air in the lower levels it is not a huge inhibiting factor anymore now that he is clear of the S American dry inflow.
Ernesto still has a whole degree of latitude to climb if he's going to miss Nicaragua.
2051. yqt1001
Haven't really paid much attention to the size of Ernesto until now.



If this thing ever becomes developed enough far away from land before the Yucatan landfall, this thing could easily bomb out. It's barely 2 degrees wide with banding.
2052. Patrap
Interesting as it seems the envelope has expanded and morphed a tad N.

Caribbean - Water Vapor Loop

click Image for Loop

ZOOM is active



Quoting yqt1001:
Haven't really paid much attention to the size of Ernesto until now.



If this thing ever becomes developed enough far away from land before the Yucatan landfall, this thing could easily bomb out. It's barely 2 degrees wide with banding.


However the inner core is broad and ill defined...has to be smaller, tighter and more consolidated before any big strengthening episode gets going. The small size of a system that bombs is usually because it has a very compact inner structure.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
POLL TIME....bored while waiting on recon:

What will the HHs find when they reach Ernesto?
A. status quo - no weakening or strengthening; same track and speed
B. 50 mph,WNW - slower
C. 60 mph, W - slower
D. strongest yet - 70 mph or higher

E. none of the above (please be specific)


50 NW 12
Quoting Patrap:
Interesting as it seems the envelope has expanded and morphed a tad N.

Caribbean - Water Vapor Loop

click Image for Loop

ZOOM is active





Great outflow channel to the north, and possibly feeling the developing weakness in the subtropical ridge at this point.
good morning everyone i see ernesto still alive after im off from work. anything i miss anyone?
Mr Ernesto
Quoting TideWaterWeather:
Lowest pressure so far on this RECON

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.4 mb


Lowest previous pressure was?
Quoting Chicklit:

That jerk just made #289 on my ignore list.


Do you really have 289 on ignore? You may not see this as I may be on ignore. 289 is impressive!


That's my story,
and I'm sticking to it!
Don't know if anyone is still on, but Ernesto continues to organize tonight. Outflow is expanding in the NW and SW quadrants and intense thunderstorms of < -85C are firing near or over the center. I'm giving the link to Ernesto's AVN floater. Pause the link on the first frame, then click the back button...looks like this: <. If you look at the first frame and the last back to back, you can tell that Ernesto has not moved during the entire loop which is 7 hours long.

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
Don't know if anyone is still on, but Ernesto continues to organize tonight. Outflow is expanding in the NW and SW quadrants and intense thunderstorms of < -85C are firing near or over the center. I'm giving the link to Ernesto's AVN floater. Pause the link on the first frame, then click the back button...looks like this: <. If you look at the first frame and the last back to back, you can tell that Ernesto has not moved during the entire loop which is 7 hours long.

Link

It wobbled north?
Looks like its starting to feel that weakness...and yes out flow on the west side is expanding and more banding too! Getting interesting!!
Convection south of the center is starting to move east with west winds picking up.
Before I head to sleep...what time is the next recon so I can check back in.
Satellite estimate from over an hour ago:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.8mb/ 47.0kt
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
Before I head to sleep...what time is the next recon so I can check back in.


They should be leaving now, actually.
Quoting MississippiWx:


They should be leaving now, actually.

Oh well maybe I'll stay a bit longer than lol! No said nothing lol!
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Oh well maybe I'll stay a bit longer than lol! No said nothing lol!


Lol. They haven't left yet and it will take them a couple of hours to get there and start sampling data. You're good for a nap. Lol. I think I'm going to wait for the advisory then head to sleep.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. They haven't left yet and it will take them a couple of hours to get there and start sampling data. You're good for a nap. Lol. I think I'm going to wait for the advisory then head to sleep.

Oh alrighty then lol I'll take a nap then be back like around 6 until then good night!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Don't know if anyone is still on, but Ernesto continues to organize tonight. Outflow is expanding in the NW and SW quadrants and intense thunderstorms of < -85C are firing near or over the center. I'm giving the link to Ernesto's AVN floater. Pause the link on the first frame, then click the back button...looks like this: <. If you look at the first frame and the last back to back, you can tell that Ernesto has not moved during the entire loop which is 7 hours long.

Link


Cool, thanks for that. Looks like it gave all that convection a chance to catch up!
.ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 6
Location: 15.1°N 80.5°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Recon will tell a lot when it gets there. NHC doesn't know where the actual center is located. Just went with continuity. We'll see later on how it goes. Back to sleep I go.



Quoting MississippiWx:
Recon will tell a lot when it gets there. NHC doesn't know where the actual center is located. Just went with continuity. We'll see later on how it goes. Back to sleep I go.



miss hope u woke. I wanted to ask ya, is there some kind of a weird scenerio that if ernesto gets into the BOC, and begins to shift towards LA or Miss because of the High pressure that begin to build back in? just asking
6August12amGMT's 15.1n76.1w-15.2n77.9w-15.3n79.2w was re-evaluated&altered
6August06amGMT's 15.0n76.1w-15.0n77.9w-15.0n79.2w-15.0n80.0w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormErnesto for 6August6amGMT:
MinimumPressure held at 1003millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 45knots(52mph)83km/h
Its vector changed from 270.2*West@14.5mph(23.3km/h) to 270.1*West@8.9mph(14.3km/h)

CUK-CayeCaulker :: MDB-Dangriga :: WSP-Waspam :: PUZ-PuertoCabezas

The easternmost dot on the kinked line marks Ernesto's position on its 30th hour as a TropicalStorm
The westernmost dot on the kinked line marks Ernesto's position on its 72nd hour as a TropicalStorm
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TS.Ernesto's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Ernesto's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
5August12pmGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over MiskitoCays (northernPUZdumbell)
5August6pmGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over LagunaBismuna (southernWSPdumbbell)
6August12amGMT: TS.Ernesto had been headed for passage over CaboViejoTalaSulamasNaturalReserve (northernWSPdumbbell)
6August6amGMT: TS.Ernesto was heading for passage over CaboViejoTalaSulamasNaturalReserve in ~20&1/2.hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste eyw, ctm-18.883n87.642w, cuk-17.75n88.024w, mdb-17.23n88.304w, wsp-14.91n83.258w, wsp-14.955n83.209w, puz-14.32n82.6w, puz-14.57n82.652w, pva-13.323n81.391w-13.213n81.384w, stx, 13.8n64.8w- 13.9n66.4w- 14.2n67.9w- 14.6n69.3w- 15.1n71.7w- 15.1n73.9w- 15.0n76.1w- 15.0n77.9w, 15.0n77.9w-15.0n79.2w, 15.0n79.2w-15.0n80.0w, 15.0n79.2w-14.97n83.174w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
i know everyone is worried about ernesto but look what happened to Flo! almost a hurricane and poof!
Tropical Depression Florence
5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 6
Location: 16.2N 38.8W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph


Tropical Storm Ernesto
5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 6
Location: 15.1N 80.5W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
2079. LargoFl
...god morning folks, looks like this is Miami's day for the rains, some nice storms by south florida this morning..well have a great day everyone
2080. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
NOW let's see what the GFS does with it now that the center that wanted to go to the S Pole having been kicked out and the true center gains control.
And now that Ernesto has discovered the utility of DMAX.
2082. Gearsts
Not moving much.
Quoting bigwes6844:
i know everyone is worried about ernesto but look what happened to Flo! almost a hurricane and poof!


I was suprised just how quickly she fell apart.

When I went to bed last night, the invest in the EPac looked lovely, and this morning's almost looking like it's going to do a Flo. Reckon it might flare back up though. Some are thinking Flo might regenerate towards Florida though? Or were other scenarios just 'ghost storms'?!
2084. emguy
Hmmm...I'm in Lexington Kentucky...By Friday it is supposed to be sunny with a high temp of 80 degrees. Last time that happenned here was late March/early April. Fall like conditions arriving. In the words of horse country...Ernesto needs to get on one and ride it if he wants to get ahead...apparently a notable trough is coming to the east central states into mid-late week.

P.S. It's possible Ernesto is relocated a bit to the east himself while trying to get organized...at the very least, he's approcahing crawl speed. Then again...as they say...it's a monday. Speaking of which, ya'll have a good one!
Today is comeback day for Earnest!


Quoting emguy:
Hmmm...I'm in Lexington Kentucky...By Friday it is supposed to be sunny with a high temp of 80 degrees. Last time that happenned here was late March/early April. Fall like conditions arriving. In the words of horse country...Ernesto needs to get on one and ride it if he wants to get ahead...apparently a notable trough is coming to the east central states into mid-late week.

P.S. It's possible Ernesto is relocated a bit to the east himself while trying to get organized...at the very least, he's approcahing crawl speed. Then again...as they say...it's a monday. Speaking of which, ya'll have a good one!

I have a shot of the final stage of Ernesto's E side winning out over the SW side, will post it when I get home from work.
Good morning everyone. I've been gone a couple days, looks like Ernesto kind of struggled... What's been happening?
2088. Gearsts
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning everyone. I've been gone a couple days, looks like Ernesto kind of struggled... What's been happening?
Almost died now is comeback time!
got to love the CMC model when it comes to the tropics

2090. WxLogic
Good Morning
Latest NHC track in about the same as GFS was showing 3 days ago.
Big Rain!!
HH are going in now!!
Recent Conditions -- Western Caribbean

Air temperature: 26.2 °C (79.8 °F)
Dewpoint temperature: 24.8 °C (77.2 °F)
Sea level pressure: 1009.7 hPa (29.8 in)
Significant wave height: 2.4 m (7.9 ft)
Water temperature: 28.0 °C (83.1 °F)
Wind gust speed: 12.0 m/s (23.3 kts)
Wind speed: 8.0 m/s (15.6 kts)
Last reported: 8:49 AM GMT 08/06/2012
3:49 AM EST 08/06/2012
It may be at 995MB
Anyone have a good map of the GOM water temps?
2100. emguy
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
HH are going in now!!


That is good...otherwise, I'd err on the side of caution and wait for a couple of visible frames to come in, as Ernesto may have slammed on the e-brake completely, or could have restacked/relocated under the storms, or may still be out west of the conection. Satellite products are not depicting things as clear with the nightime imagery as of now.
06Z GFS NY

IT going to be in the 990MB
Quoting emguy:


That is good...otherwise, I'd err on the side of caution and wait for a couple of visible frames to come in, as Ernesto may have slammed on the e-brake completely, or could have restacked/relocated under the storms, or may still be out west of the conection. Satellite products are not depicting things as clear with the nightime imagery as of now.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
Post 1066. OracleDeAtlantis 11:58 PM GMT on August 05, 2012

....About 3 A.M. I'll be looking for the tops of those covered wagons, and counting their number. I'm betting the Indians have about run out of ammunition, and the smart thing to do is head away from the jungles of Honduras.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Post 1090. GeorgiaStormz 12:07 AM GMT on August 06, 2012
you and your cryptic forecasts....

Nevertheless, within six hours and at 3 A.M. the pattern curiously changed from a basic blob into what I had described, and I was able to easily count those wagons, and there were many.









Quoting SFLWeatherman:
06Z GFS NY


I'm sure you're not trying to, but you're putting a lot of false information on the blog... Make sure you clearly state what your images are, some people may not know the difference between an ensemble member, which is what you mostly post, and the operational GFS. Here's the last 4 GFS runs.

12z yesterday- Southeast storm:



18z yesterday- grazes the Northeast:



0z last night- big Northeast storm:



6z today showed nothing.
The Nogaps and cmc going N???
Sry but that was all on the 00Z and 06Z for me???
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm sure you're not trying to, but you're putting a lot of false information on the blog... Make sure you clearly state what your images are, some people may not know the difference between an ensemble member, which is what you mostly post, and the operational GFS. Here's the last 4 GFS runs.

12z yesterday- Southeast storm:



18z yesterday- grazes the Northeast:



0z last night- big Northeast storm:



6z today showed nothing.
2107. WxLogic
Now we have a nice moist environment around Ernesto.



If it slows down further then I could raise the changes to an 80 to 85mph HURR. For now, I wouldn't go higher than 70mph as it is approaching CA soon.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Sry but that was all on the 00Z and 06Z for me???

You're posting individual GFS ensemble members, I posted the actual GFS. There's nothing wrong with your posts, just state that what you're showing is an ensemble member since they don't carry as much weight as the operational GFS.
Climate Change Study Ties Recent Heat Waves To Global Warming



WASHINGTON — The relentless, weather-gone-crazy type of heat that has blistered the United States and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can't be anything but man-made global warming, says a new statistical analysis from a top government scientist.

The research by a man often called the "godfather of global warming" says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than 1 in 300. Now, the odds are closer to 1 in 10, according to the study by NASA scientist James Hansen. He says that statistically what's happening is not random or normal, but pure and simple climate change.

"This is not some scientific theory. We are now experiencing scientific fact," Hansen told The Associated Press in an interview.

Hansen is a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University. But he is also a strident activist who has called for government action to curb greenhouse gases for years. While his study was published online Saturday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, it is unlikely to sway opinion among the remaining climate change skeptics.

However, several climate scientists praised the new work.

Complete Story
could someone show the SST over the Carribean & Gulf?
Time: 11:09:30Z
Coordinates: 16.4667N 77.0833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,748 meters (~ 25,420 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 433 meters (~ 1,421 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 107° at 7 knots (From the ESE at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: -16.0°C (~ 3.2°F)
Dew Pt: -17.1°C (~ 1.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 31 knots (~ 35.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

HH not far awy now!
ERnesto is barely moving now!
morning all. heading down to the farm to batten down the hatches. in otherwords, remove all hanging baskets, loose pots, miscellaneous stuff around the nursery and take down several hanging orchids. also need to harvest those limes. beyond that i dont think it will be all that bad here. we could use the rain, ernesto can keep the wind. will keep checking in here to see if anything more develops.
It may be up to 70
Time: 11:20:00Z
Coordinates: 16.4833N 78.0W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.1 mb (~ 11.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,755 meters (~ 25,443 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 430 meters (~ 1,411 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 138° at 39 knots (From the SE at ~ 44.8 mph)
Air Temp: -14.7°C (~ 5.5°F)
Dew Pt: -15.4°C (~ 4.3°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 7 mm/hr (~ 0.28 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Good morning all. He does look stationary now or is it my morning eyes :)
Hello Sf w. I can't make heads or tails of those maps. I just need the basic weather SSt that Dr. Msters sually uses. It's kinda zoomed out. All I can say. Ty
Not quite. I'm trying 2 show my girlfriend how warm the waters r in the Carr. & GULF
The CMC to FL lol
I think Ernesto maybe drifting NW now

Rain rain rain rain lol ps rain
Quoting mikatnight:
Climate Change Study Ties Recent Heat Waves To Global Warming



WASHINGTON — The relentless, weather-gone-crazy type of heat that has blistered the United States and other parts of the world in recent years is so rare that it can't be anything but man-made global warming, says a new statistical analysis from a top government scientist.

The research by a man often called the "godfather of global warming" says that the likelihood of such temperatures occurring from the 1950s through the 1980s was rarer than 1 in 300. Now, the odds are closer to 1 in 10, according to the study by NASA scientist James Hansen. He says that statistically what's happening is not random or normal, but pure and simple climate change.

"This is not some scientific theory. We are now experiencing scientific fact," Hansen told The Associated Press in an interview.

Hansen is a scientist at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York and a professor at Columbia University. But he is also a strident activist who has called for government action to curb greenhouse gases for years. While his study was published online Saturday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, it is unlikely to sway opinion among the remaining climate change skeptics.

However, several climate scientists praised the new work.

Complete Story


Careful. You'll stir up a hornet's nest posting that. Hansen, Mann and Gore are the deniers' main hate figures.

On the subject of hornets, here in the UK they're expected to expand their range northwards, as the climate warms. They're currently only found in the south of the country.

2127. GetReal
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Ernesto maybe drifting NW now




New game maybe??? Ernesto made me eat a ton of crow for the last 36 hours! Finally this system is doing something I thought it would, slow way down in the W. Caribbean. IMO if Ernesto can quickly ramp up it has a chance at heading NW into the south central GOM.
WOW 60MPH
This may be a Hurricane!!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The CMC to FL lol

I am only follow what the GFS says. it's picked all 3 systems.
Discard all other models. GFS is the one to follow.
Funky

If it a Hurricane now what?? will go NW or N??
2133. GetReal





There is still a weakness for Ernesto to make a run into the GOM if there is a deepening of the system.
2134. Hugo5
it appears ernesto is about to undergo some rapid intensification. I hope that the weather services pick this up soon and start to issue some new warnings.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am only follow what the GFS says. it's picked all 3 systems.
Discard all other models. GFS is the one to follow.


GFS has been the king for sometime now. It looks like Ernesto is finally into more favorable conditions as the Eastern and Central Caribbean really did a number on Ernesto. Ernesto was dealing with dry coming up off from S America and strong trade winds which is very normal for this time of year across the Eastern and even C Caribbean during June, July and early August.

2136. GetReal
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If it a Hurricane now what?? will go NW or N??



If we get RI, which is possible this morning in Ernesto's current location it will probably feel the weakness to the north and take a more NW track in for the immediate future.
2120. andsnowon: I just need the basic weather SSTs... I'm trying 2 show my girlfriend how warm the waters r in the Carr. & GULF


Quoting SFLWeatherman:
If it a Hurricane now what?? will go NW or N??

Depends on how quickly it strengthens. It will feel the weakness.
2139. GetReal


If we get the RI it should feel this weakness to the north.
A lot of rain for FL this week now that the MJO is back.

2141. GetReal
Ernesto has found the sw end of the Bermuda ridge and is now looking for new steering.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am only follow what the GFS says. it's picked all 3 systems.
Discard all other models. GFS is the one to follow.
Hey man dont't get to comfy with the GFS... it has it's days too. Lol
Big rain for S FL now!!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
A lot of rain for FL this week now that the MJO is back.

Spaghetti with meat balls!
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think Ernesto maybe drifting NW now



hey wow ernesto is impresive I think that the LLCOC of ernesto is at 15.8N 80.2W moving WNW-NW at 10< MPH with 70MPH or 75+MPH
lol
Quoting washingaway:
Spaghetti with meat balls!
000
WTNT35 KNHC 061159
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF
HONDURAS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD
TO PUNTA SAL...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND CAYMAN
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO
TULUM

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND
ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


11mph slower than it was this time yesterday. Ernesto needs to move north or it will hit HONDURAS.
Quoting weatherb0y:
Hey man dont't get to comfy with the GFS... it has it's days too. Lol

It's been right more than all the others combined.
I would go with the most trusted rather than the others.
Good morning.Looks like Ernesto will track right in on to Mexico.I don't think it'll be much of a chance for him to make a come back in the BOC.
2150. GetReal


The motion for Ernesto appears to be nearly stationary, or a slight movement towards the NW. IMO
Quoting GetReal:


The motion for Ernesto appears to be nearly stationary, or a slight movement towards the NW. IMO

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Good morning.Looks like Ernesto will track right in on to Mexico.I don't think it'll be much of a chance for him to make a come back in the BOC.
long.way.off...first.needs.to.make.a.landfall
Quoting islander101010:
long.way.off...
Advisort is a guess with the coordinates and strength
till HH fly trough the center
Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?
They are in him now investigating.
2156. GetReal
well so far HH think the center is further E now plane traveling SE pressure now down to 1002mb
Hurricane hunters have found 54mph winds.
2159. GetReal
Quoting AussieStorm:

Maybe he's just booming in size but still moving.
When's the next HH flight?



It could very well be the convection blowing up in that direction... Does anyone have the HH info?
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Nicely strong winds with LOW rain rate... Another measurement like this near it.

AND they are not even near the center.
I would wager some big bucks that the crisis centers are busy today with ernesto gonna miss the US and Florence a neked swirl. Man I love the tropics....
2162. ncstorm
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..

tell.the.advertisers..kindly.of.course...we.dont.do .surveys....watching.ernesto
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They are in him now investigating.

Thanks, I have them up on GE now.
Here is the wave that GFS develops in Central Africa on a loop.

Link
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.
2167. GetReal
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.

That's a 10 second average though... The NHC uses a one minute average, which would be lower.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That's a 10 second average though... The NHC uses a one minute average, which would be lower.


Why would it be lower?
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:
Time: 12:01:30Z
Coordinates: 15.55N 80.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.1 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,532 meters (~ 5,026 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 12° at 35 knots (From the NNE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Dew Pt: 14.8°C (~ 58.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 52 knots (~ 59.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 4 mm/hr (~ 0.16 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

More near 60mph winds.
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.9 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)!!!!!!!
It going be a Hurricane today
looks like they found the center further NE location near 15.5N 97.9W
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Why would it be lower?



Because short lived gust speeds are higher than wind speeds sustained for 60 seconds.
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..

That's funny.Unless Ernesto RI very fast that's not going to happen.
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:


Why would it be lower?

Because winds that are sustained at one speed for 10 seconds are not sustained that fast for 1 minute.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.

Same thing, those 65 mph winds are a 10 second average, the 30 second speed, closer to what the NHC uses, is only 58mph. That 997mb reading is very interesting though.
ime: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
HH found 65 mph winds and 997 pressure.


Time: 12:07:00Z
Coordinates: 15.6N 79.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,487 meters (~ 4,879 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.9 mb (~ 29.56 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 102 at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

That is fairly close.

Do you mean this

Time: 12:08:30Z
Coordinates: 15.6N 80.0667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.9 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,501 meters (~ 4,925 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1001.2 mb (~ 29.57 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44 at 32 knots (From the NE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 18.0C (~ 64.4F)
Dew Pt: 14.3C (~ 57.7F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Also many many readings over/near 60mph. Expect an upgrade at 11
2180. GetReal
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 998.9 mb (~ 29.50 inHg)!!!!!!!



Sub 1000mb for the first time.... It needs to drop another 5mb, at least, to become a hurricane.
Ernesto is bombing out big time....

Time: 12:04:30Z
Coordinates: 15.5167N 79.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,495 meters (~ 4,905 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 997.7 mb (~ 29.46 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 302° at 11 knots (From the WNW at ~ 12.6 mph)
Air Temp: 23.0°C (~ 73.4°F)
Dew Pt: 16.4°C (~ 61.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 15 knots (~ 17.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 16 knots* (~ 18.4 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (~ 0.31 in/hr*)
Miami NWS Disco

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.
2183. GetReal
Anything on the current motion from the HH??
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..




Strong trough across the east.

Time: 12:07:00Z
Coordinates: 15.6N 79.9667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,487 meters (~ 4,879 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1000.9 mb (~ 29.56 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 102° at 35 knots (From the ESE at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0°C* (~ 59.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 38 knots (~ 43.7 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 55 knots (~ 63.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 10 mm/hr (~ 0.39 in/hr)
Quoting GetReal:



Sub 1000mb for the first time.... It needs to drop another 5mb, at least, to become a hurricane.

Wind needs to catch up. Hurricanes are not designated by pressure but by wind speed.
2187. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's funny.Unless Ernesto RI very fast that's not going to happen.


I dont think thats Ernesto
Wow
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Strong trough across the east.

Quoting GetReal:
Anything on the current motion from the HH??


we will have to wait for it to fly out of the center and make a few more passes into the center
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..

Anyone seen the 00z CMC..


Isnt that delightful. Right at my doorstep.
The center is a bit further east and north than thought!
2192. GetReal


Ernesto puzzle finally coming together.
Does anyone have the google earth link for recon?
Link
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Does anyone have the google earth link for recon?
Ernesto is for real this time. Center is well within the convection with at least a 997mb pressure reading. The 997 reading still had 12mph W winds.
2196. GetReal
Quoting AussieStorm:

Wind needs to catch up. Hurricanes are not designated by pressure but by wind speed.



Yeah, I just made that reference because that is usually the average pressure (990-993) that is seen with minimal hurricanes.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
looks like they found the center further NE location near 15.5N 97.9W


They said in their 5AM statement that his vertical rotation was stretched to the northeast. I'd say as he has tightened up, the mid to upper level circulation became dominant and pulled the low level circulation more to northeast. He's probably much more vertical stacked in my opinion. We will have to see what he does today. If he gets to close to the Central American coast line it will hold his intensity in check, but I would think the stronger he gets the more inclined he would to feel the small weakness up north and the further north he gets...

Tropical Cyclone Heat Protential

Quoting stormpetrol:
The center is a bit further east and north than thought!

well not for me I did say and thought the center would be N and E of that NHC is thinking
The 997 reading was also at 15.5N and 79.5W
I think by time the HHs mission is over this morning, Ernesto will be well on his way to becoming the 2nd hurricane of the 2012 Season , if not before!
At least 60mph winds I see. And for the first time, these arent rain contaminated. Ernesto is strengthening.
what is it at 15. what
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well not for me I did say and thought the center would be N and E of that NHC is thinking
Wow this time he is for real!!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well not for me I did say and thought the center would be N and E of that NHC is thinking

I hope they keep the watch up for us!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
what is it at 15. what

around 15.5N 79.9W
995NOW!!!
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think by time the HHs mission is over this morning, Ernesto will be well on his way to becoming the 2nd hurricane of the 2012 Season , if not before!
Unless he makes landfall in Honduras.
Quoting stormpetrol:
The center is a bit further east and north than thought!(~ 24.86 inHg) 1,493 meters
(~ 4,898 feet) 995.8 mb
(~ 29.41 inHg) m>
thx
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

around 15.5N 79.9W
Can anyone tell me if it is still possible for Ernesto to end up in the southcentral Gulf of Mexico?
995.8mb

With 48mph winds.
possible is going up
Quoting weatherb0y:
Can anyone tell me if it is still possible for Ernesto to end up in the southcentral Gulf of Mexico?
Ernesto looks like a sno ball by hostess.
Quoting weatherb0y:
Can anyone tell me if it is still possible for Ernesto to end up in the southcentral Gulf of Mexico?

Hardly no chance. I believe he would have to go through major RI.
New update...Center is directly underneath the coldest cloud tops. He could be getting ready to bomb out.

2218. ncstorm
Quoting stormpetrol:

I hope they keep the watch up for us!

by the looks of it if the storms is moving NW we maybe very well upgraded to a TS warning or Hurricane Warning

it has slowed down so much that we my not start to feel the effect untill later today or this evening
Good Morning, no change in my weather in South Central Texas, forecast 100 to 102 next 7 days, has been this way last several weeks. Ready for Football and cooler weather, LOL. Rest of the USA does not seem to be too hot outside of Texas.
If it go to Cat 2 or 3 it may go N today
Quoting MississippiWx:
New update...Center is directly underneath the coldest cloud tops. He could be getting ready to bomb out.

2222. Asrock
Quoting atmosweather:


0z Euro run



Is it me or does the last bit of the run there show the remains of Ernesto crossing Mexico and forming a new storm?
Quoting MississippiWx:
New update...Center is directly underneath the coldest cloud tops. He could be getting ready to bomb out.

Is he still moving west or west northwest now?
He has to gain at least 1 degree of latitude for his center to miss Honduras.
Quoting weatherb0y:
Can anyone tell me if it is still possible for Ernesto to end up in the southcentral Gulf of Mexico?
Seems with the Upper Low in the Gulf that is unlikely? That is what I am hearing from our Local Weathermen.
Is Ernesto finally singing "Good Day" by Ice cube?.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

by the looks of it if the storms is moving NW we maybe very well upgraded to a TS warning or Hurricane Warning

it has slowed down so much that we my not start to feel the effect untill later today or this evening
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good
did Ernesto stall?
2231. ncstorm
we got a new low where the tropical wave was preceding Florence..

ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO, M,
Vortex says he has a closed eyewall!!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W) B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good

So 65mph and a closed eyewall.....
Quoting allancalderini:
Is he still moving west or west northwest now?


I would say more like WNW-NW but I am heavily leaning more NW
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0,



geting vary close too hurricane all soo he seem too have move a little N?
2238. Levi32
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
He has to gain at least 1 degree of latitude for his center to miss Honduras.
will be bad if he doesn`t start moving west-northwest soon Honduras could receive a ts just below hurricane strengh.
Ernesto will be a hurricane today. I don't loosely throw around the "RI" phrase, but it's a good candidate for it.
Hey Levi
Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.
This part of the caribbean is known for rapidly intensifying cyclones..Wilma..Mitch..Not saying it'll happen in this case...
Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.



its down to 994mb


AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS,
I betting he's about to bomb out...that closed eyewall does mean something
Good Morning. Ernesto is finally starting to look much better this morning but he is so far South that I am confident in the current NHC track. Even if he blows up, and the models compensate and adjust a little to the North by tomorrow, I don't see how he would get pulled to the North into the Gulf of Mexico. Crossing the Yucatan will keep him weak on the other side and we he gets into the Bay of Campeche, if he is pulled a little further North, I think it would be remain a Mexico landfall after that. He is not going to get deep enough to feel the weakness IMHO.
Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.


ATCF went with 994.
2247. WxLogic
If Ernesto gains LAT and maintain a low forward speed than what it is at this point then we could be looking a new scenario unfolding.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good
Good Morning Levi and everyone...
Quoting Levi32:
Dropsonde 997mb with 43kt ESE winds. Pressure is likely lower, but the VDM says 997mb with no extrapolation downward.


What is his exact heading right now? Does he have any adjusted northward component to previous heading?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Is Ernesto finally singing "Good Day" by Ice cube?.


Nice! Im sure that one was for me:0)
2252. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:
Ernesto will be a hurricane today. I don't loosely throw around the "RI" phrase, but it's a good candidate for it.


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF is going with 55 knots for the 12Z update:

AL, 05, 2012080612, , BEST, 0, 156N, 801W, 55, 994, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0,

yeah but wrong coordinates lol again

Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

So 65mph and a closed eyewall.....


soon to be hurricane Ernesto
Quoting allancalderini:
Is he still moving west or west northwest now?


He's moving WNW now...possibly jumping even more north due to center relocation.
if this thing bombs into a formidable upper cat 1/ lower cat 2 today...will models shift at the 12/18z? ...or would it take till the 00z to ingest the new data??
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Nice! Im sure that one was for me:0)
It just fits right now XD.After struggling so much he finally found a good place for him.
2257. Levi32
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What is his exact heading right now? Does he have any adjusted northward component to previous heading?


Technically the 6-hour heading is due north, but the center jumped so the actual forward motion has yet to be determined.
Quoting Levi32:


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.
So could it go more north than the forecast track by the NHC?.
Quoting allancalderini:
Unless he makes landfall in Honduras.


I doubt very much this will be a Honduras storm now!
Very interested in the movement right now as he appears to be moving WNW or NW right now. Any word on this from the HH?
Quoting Levi32:


VDM says Ernesto literally has gained zero longitude since the 06z NHC position. In reality it has probably been moving but the center has jumped and likely become vertically stacked a bit sooner than the models anticipated.


Indeed. That is what worries me. It will put him farther away from the shelf waters just off Central America which have much less heat stored. This puts him further out into the high TCHP. Shear looks to be abating as outflow is expanding in all quads.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This part of the caribbean is known for rapidly intensifying cyclones..Wilma..Mitch..Not saying it'll happen in this case...
and keith
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Does anyone have the google earth link for recon?


GE kmz file.
Quoting Levi32:


Technically the 6-hour heading is due north, but the center jumped so the actual forward motion has yet to be determined.
thats.crucial
Quoting washingtonian115:
It just fits right now XD.After struggling so much he finally found a good place for him.


Yeah if you remember I said last Friday that once he gets into the NW Caribbean then it's game on. Well it appears to be game on now.

2266. Levi32
Quoting washingtonian115:
So could it go more north than the forecast track by the NHC?.


In the short term yes, which matters a great deal for the Yucatan countries.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah if you remember I said last Friday that once he gets into the NW Caribbean then it's game on. Well it appears to be game on now.

Ernesto better not be intensifying to fast now.Wouldn't want him making a run for the Gulf.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 12:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°34'N 79°59'W (15.5667N 79.9833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 270 miles (434 km) to the SW (232°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 170° at 55kts (From the S at ~ 63.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles (5 statute miles) to the E (100°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,469m (4,820ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:14:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 0 nautical miles to the SSW (211°) from the flight level center
Radar Signature: Good


Ernesto has an eye????????
On a positive note, he is far enough South that Caiman will probably be spared any significant impacts, other than surf erosion, from being in the line of fire from the NE quadrant.
Quoting AussieStorm:


Ernesto has an eye????????



yes a close eye wall has they call it
Quoting MississippiWx:


Indeed. That is what worries me. It will put him farther away from the shelf waters just off Central America which have much less heat stored. This puts him further out into the high TCHP. Shear looks to be abating as outflow is expanding in all quads.



Looks good right now as he has a nice CDO building.

Quoting Tazmanian:



yes a close eye wall has they call it


Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles. Pinhole eye???

Taz, your blocking my messages to you. I tried to reply to your wu-mail.
Caiman is not out of the woods if this storm start pulling more N Caiman will be in for it
Quoting AussieStorm:


Circular with a diameter of 6 nautical miles. Pinhole eye???




they found a pine hole eye?
but what does that spell for the bay islands of honduras????

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a positive note, he is far enough South that Caiman will probably be spared any significant impacts, other than surf erosion, from being in the line of fire from the NE quadrant.
Can it go N or NE??
Ernesto is small...and small systems intensify more rapidly then bigger ones...
2279. LargoFl
.......................................WOW its south east florida's turn for the stormy weather this morning huh
By looking at this link he appears to be pulling more NW. Any thoughts?


Link
2281. Levi32
Edit: This is the new 8am advisory position (blue marker), largely extrapolated from the previous forecast most likely, but Ernesto is well NE of that marker.

You can see why it was huge for Ernesto to reform underneath the strong convection. Not only does it take him further away from land, but it also takes him away from the shelf waters off Central America. Those waters are shallow and cannot store much heat energy.

Just because it has a closed eyewall doesnt mean hes a hurricane. He still has to gain some wind speed.
Poll.
Will Ernesto undergo RI?
A. Yes
B. No
C. He already is
D. RI is unpredictable. Who knows.
Quoting Tazmanian:




they found a pine hole eye?

would a Circular eye with a diameter of 6 nautical miles be classified as a pinhole eye??
It's going to still take a Emily like track into Mexico but heck it's fun to watch :) GO USA





Quoting Tazmanian:
Caiman is not out of the woods if this storm start pulling more N Caiman will be in for it


Hopefully not but it may be close if the center relocates to the north, he really grows in size, and, makes hurricane status as opposed TS status per the current forecast; the core of the storm will not make it over the Island but we have to see how widespread his banding becomes over the next 24 hours.
Morning all.

Kudos to the global models on Ernesto. They did a great job of forecasting it for the most part. Storm specifics on the other hand did not fair as well until late in the game. I see Ernesto has gotten its act together a little.

On a side note, the long range GFS is showing a worrisome pattern coming up in the next few weeks.
2288. LargoFl
...........................local mets changed the track i see this morning
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Just because it has a closed eyewall doesnt mean hes a hurricane. He still has to gain some wind speed.
Poll.
Will Ernesto undergo RI?
A. Yes
B. No
C. He already is
D. RI is unpredictable. Who knows.
E i gave up trying to forecast Ernesto
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning all.

Kudos to the global models on Ernesto. They did a great job of forecasting it for the most part. Storm specifics on the other hand did not fair as well until late in the game. I see Ernesto has gotten its act together a little.

On a side note, the long range GFS is showing a worrisome pattern coming up in the next few weeks.



Could be a pattern that from FL to Maine will have to watch down thye road.
2292. LargoFl
Quoting roatangardener:
but what does that spell for the bay islands of honduras????



I have been to the Bay Islands (I have a friend from there) and lots of tourists down there diving this Summer. Too early to tell but they will at least be on the weaker side. One of my friends diving down there was evacuated there about 5 years ago by the Navy when a storm was going. She got to ride in a Navy Chopper....They got all the Americans out and back inland to the coast...... :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

would a Circular eye with a diameter of 6 nautical miles be classified as a pinhole eye??

No, because the eye hasn't cleared out.

And also because I don't want to read through 100 posts every time I refresh.
Looks like it's just starting to get an anti cyclone going overhead.
Continuing to trend up the El-Nino ladder.



with a little help from the MJO.

Quoting AussieStorm:

would a Circular eye with a diameter of 6 nautical miles be classified as a pinhole eye??




yes or vary close too it
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Could be a pattern that from FL to Maine will have to watch down thye road.


Yes the next 3 weeks could be rather active then El-nino takes over and ends most of the major threats especially the long track ones to the US
Up to 1inch

2300. LargoFl
Quoting washingaway:
..I know it wont happen..but imagine...he goes out into the pacific, regroups and heads north into southern california lol..this storm really needs to be watched..he has a mind of his own
2302. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Up to 1inch

..might be some street flooding there if this keeps up huh
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On a positive note, he is far enough South that Caiman will probably be spared any significant impacts, other than surf erosion, from being in the line of fire from the NE quadrant.

my guts says otherwise but yet simmilar to what you are saying

my guts are telling me if this this is moving NW well Grand Caymans going to get that NE quad mid or far side and with it possibly becoming a Hurricane and with that weakness it may even pull some N movements so my gaurd is not going to go down accualy it will go up like if it was to come directly just can't take no chances ernesto os so full of surprises
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Continuing to trend up the El-Nino ladder.



with a little help from the MJO.

Expect very strong waves to come off of Africa.So could have some good cape verde storms to track these next few weeks.Could even see waves like Julie who developed over land XD.
2305. LargoFl
..................so far the models seem sure where he is going
Quoting StormTracker2K:



Could be a pattern that from FL to Maine will have to watch down thye road.


At this point I only take it as a somewhat likely potential that the AB ridge will not let a turn E of the CONUS happen. From Brownsville to Nova Scotia should be mildly concerned at this point. Still a very long way out, but very good time to go from generic preparedness plans to a more concrete one.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Expect very strong waves to come off of Africa.So could have some good cape verde storms to track these next few weeks.Could even see waves like Julie who developed over land XD.
And they say that the cape Verde will not be that active this year.
Headed in for another center pass. Should be interesting.
2309. LargoFl
Quoting allancalderini:
And they say that the cape Verde will not be that active this year.
Shows that when it comes to weather man still doesn't have the upper hand.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

my guts says otherwise but yet simmilar to what you are saying

my guts are telling me if this this is moving NW well Grand Caymans going to get that NE quad mid or far side and with it possibly becoming a Hurricane and with that weakness it may even pull some N movements so my gaurd is not going to go down accualy it will go up like if it was to come directly just can't take no chances ernesto os so full of surprises


Currently 15 mph [max] wind here on the south coast, seas five to seven feet at Spotts Dock. You need to relax, this isn't coming to Cayman
Quoting washingtonian115:
Shows that when it comes to weather man still doesn't have the upper hand.
yeah that is true looks that mother nature want to do what she wants.
2316. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A VERY MOIST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS
ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE EAST COASTAL COUNTIES FROM
VOLUSIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH MARTIN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG AN EARLY DEVELOPING ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE. THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE RATHER DIFFUSE AND FAST MOVING...CAUSING
STORM ACTIVITY TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR FROM MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND SUNSET...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA FROM SUNSET ONWARD.

TODAY`S STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT AROUND 10 MPH WHILE DEVELOPING
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER INLAND...AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A 60 TO 90 MINUTE PERIOD...AND WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. MOVE INDOORS IF YOU HEAR THUNDER...OR AT
THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING WEATHER.
8AM Computer Model no good
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good rain on me 
2303. wunderkidcayman 9:04 AM EDT on August 06, 201

It will all depend on what happens later on today. Any jog to the North could increase the impacts to you folks; the wind fields on tropical storms or hurricanes (for tropical storm level winds or gusts) can sometimes extend up to 175 miles out. I am not sure how far South-Southeast the COC is from you folks in Caiman at the moment.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

the LLCOC is NE of where the NHC puts it and NE of where the models put it wow if the models can ever get it right may see shift N and E
Good morning all! Whats the latest on Ernesto?
2323. Levi32
12z BAM suite got in with the new coordinates found by recon. Change is to short-term track not long-term.

on sattelite does now show more NW movement
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Nevertheless, within six hours and at 3 A.M. the pattern curiously changed from a basic blob into what I had described, and I was able to easily count those wagons, and there were many.











meaning what?
Another cryptic thing..why dont you just say exactly what you think will happen clearly..you know...without the wagons.. and faces
What is this from??
Ernesto been moveing N its now vary close too 16 N is not right on it
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
Good morning all! Whats the latest on Ernesto?



winds up too 55kt mb down too 994mb with a close eye wall
Ernesto sure seems to be moving a true NW this morning.
What do yall think?
Ernesto is a Yucatan and Mexico storm now, sorry US wishcasters :)
2332. LargoFl
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
..this will be headed towards me tonight nws says..going to be a stormy day for east and central florida today alright,wonder if it will affect sw florida at all, i know they can use its rains also
Quoting Tazmanian:



winds up too 55kt mb down too 994mb with a close eye wall


Wow! She was certainly busy last night. Thanks for the update.
Quoting Tazmanian:
Ernesto been moveing N its now vary close too 16 N is not right on it

I wonder when he'll start to feel the weakness
2335. LargoFl
Quoting Jeff9645:
Ernesto is a Yucatan and Mexico storm now, sorry US wishcasters :)
yes we can get back to local bad weather soon
Quoting Jeff9645:
Ernesto is a Yucatan and Mexico storm now, sorry US wishcasters :)


On his way to Mexico to try on his new Sombrero and there AIN'T NOTHING ANYONE CAN DO ABOUT IT.
Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Wow! She was certainly busy last night. Thanks for the update.
He.
The CMC
Ernesto at 108HR

A NEW Tropical Storm at 180HR!!
I would like to know who was wishcasting for Ernesto to come to the U.S anyway?.From what I've seen people were discussing it as a possibility.
2340. LargoFl
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would like to know who was wishcasting for Ernesto to come to the U.S anyway?.From what I've seen people were discussing it as a possibility.
..exactly


First time we have really seen the storm do a decent job at getting vertically stacked.
Quoting Levi32:
12z BAM suite got in with the new coordinates found by recon. Change is to short-term track not long-term.

Levi, i know the GFS has been one crazy model with this storm but i think it nailed the track pretty well. This is now a belize and veracruz issue.
It would take an RI to like, Cat 4 to turn ernesto to the US....
Its possible but it would have to start with the clouds in the center imploding and an eye forming right about now....needless to say its most likely not happening.

Quoting allancalderini:
He.


Despite the name being a "he" name I still call it a she. Just been a habit of mine. I do that with all storms. Lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would like to know who was wishcasting for Ernesto to come to the U.S anyway?.From what I've seen people were discussing it as a possibility.
the same thing that was a possibility so it was discuss not that anyone was wishcasting to go to the USA.
2346. LargoFl
I think as soon as someone says the term "wishcasters"..all they want to do is start fights again in here..anyone who uses this term goes on ignore in my book from now on..peaceful posting plse,alot going on now..
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Good rain on me 

If you zoom in a little more, you might be able to see your house on radar.
Waterspout in Offatts Bayou on Galveston Yesterday AM

A waterspout moves across the north shore of Offatts Bayou in Galveston at about 10:30 a.m. Sunday.





Quoting hurrtracker1994:


Despite the name being a "he" name I still call it a she. Just been a habit of mine. I do that with all storms. Lol
oh ok XD
2350. Levi32
77-kt flight level wind reported, and the straight pass through instead of the loop last time reveals an extremely small center with a markedly steep pressure gradient, which, to be realistic, is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye.

Quoting RitaEvac:
Waterspout in Offatts Bayou on Galveston Yesterday AM

A waterspout moves across the north shore of Offatts Bayou in Galveston at about 10:30 a.m. Sunday.






Very cool to be so close to that. It looks more like a gustnado based on its size, though. (judging by the bench on the dock - which didn't move, it was maybe 40 feet in diameter)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
It would take an RI to like, Cat 4 to turn ernesto to the US....
Its possible but it would have to start with the clouds in the center imploding and an eye forming right about now....needless to say its most likely not happening.



ain't that an eye?Link
Ok everyone now that I have checked in, I have to get down to the NHC. (I intern there). Luckily for me I got the day shift with this storm. I will try to give everyone some updates when I get down there.
Quoting Levi32:
77-kt flight level wind reported, and the straight pass through instead of the loop last time reveals an extremely small center with a markedly steep pressure gradient, which, to be realistic, is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye.


Dang that is a tight pressure gradient.

Here goes the blog...

Quoting Levi32:
77-kt flight level wind reported, and the straight pass through instead of the loop last time reveals an extremely small center with a markedly steep pressure gradient, which, to be realistic, is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye.



You...said...that.
2357. Levi32
Unflagged 62kt SFMR reading in the NW eyewall.

Quoting jiminceiba:


ain't that an eye?Link

No, that is a cold cloud top. Likely part of an overshooting top, aka a "hot tower".
2359. Levi32
Quoting MississippiWx:


You...said...that.


Bizarre, but true for the moment. Such eyewalls can also collapse quite quickly. This one is in its embryonic stage where the storm isn't even a hurricane yet.
Recon does reveal a somewhat pinhole eye with Ernesto. Interesting, 6 miles is very small. Ernesto has a very tight core.
Levi,a special advisory very soon?
I'm very impressed with what Ernesto is doing this morning. As soon as the surface flow stopped screaming westward, the storm was able to align itself and explode. Amazing how fast this stuff can happen.
Time: 13:17:30Z
Coordinates: 15.75N 80.1833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 844.7 mb (~ 24.94 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,437 meters (~ 4,715 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.8 mb (~ 29.38 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 49° at 17 knots (From the NE at ~ 19.5 mph)
Air Temp: 20.6°C (~ 69.1°F)
Dew Pt: 15.3°C (~ 59.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 20 knots (~ 23.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 22 knots (~ 25.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
2365. Levi32
According to HDOBS, in the 1 hour and 20 minutes since the previous fix, Ernesto has moved 11 minutes westward and 10 minutes northward, or a heading of NW. Center still likely jumping around with no true representative heading yet.
As a note, Ernesto is splitting a border between TCHP in excess of 60, and very low TCHP off the coast of Honduras. If he pulls north, he stays in the higher TCHP. If he keeps moving towards Honduras, not so much.
Did someone say pinhole eye?.Now it could fall a part..or it could go the other way....here's to hoping it falls apart.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon does reveal a somewhat pinhole eye with Ernesto. Interesting, 6 miles is very small. Ernesto has a very tight core.

Which is dangerous because if it doesn't lose its eyewall, there is a chance it will undergo explosive intensification.
Quoting Levi32:


Bizarre, but true for the moment. Such eyewalls can also collapse quite quickly. This one is in its embryonic stage where the storm isn't even a hurricane yet.


Yeah, it make sense. Ernesto is a fairly small system anyway just from looking at satellite.
Quoting Levi32:
According to HDOBS, in the 1 hour and 20 minutes since the previous fix, Ernesto has moved 11 minutes westward and 10 minutes northward, or a heading of NW.

Isn't it like 4:30am over there, Levi?
Quoting jiminceiba:


ain't that an eye?Link


no
Quoting Levi32:


Bizarre, but true for the moment. Such eyewalls can also collapse quite quickly. This one is in its embryonic stage where the storm isn't even a hurricane yet.
in other words, he is taking advantage of the environment and is trying to become a hurricane before slamming the yucatan correct?
88mph flight level winds would translate to about 70-75 on the surface. When lowest pressure was recorded, the winds died off significantly and then picked up again as expected for an eye. Ernesto is approaching hurricane status.
2374. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,a special advisory very soon?


I can't imagine how they cannot update the intensity for the interests in Honduras, Roatan, and the Yucatan.
Quoting Levi32:
77-kt flight level wind reported, and the straight pass through instead of the loop last time reveals an extremely small center with a markedly steep pressure gradient, which, to be realistic, is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye.



*GULP*

ya...ya..ya sure ..about.. dat?
2376. Levi32
Quoting jeffs713:

Isn't it like 4:30am over there, Levi?


Yeah, have to be up this early to get a video out, which I have to record right now if I'm to get to work on time. Hate working on days like this.
Quoting jeffs713:

No, that is a cold cloud top. Likely part of an overshooting top, aka a "hot tower".


ok, thanks...I be learnin...need to..thing is coming my way big time...just about ready to go and stock up on rum
Quoting Levi32:


I can't imagine how they cannot update the intensity for the interests in Honduras, Roatan, and the Yucatan.

Is it reasonable to assume the delay in an advisory is a combination of them waiting for confirmation (which they just got), and also coordinating with Honduras to issue Hurricane warnings?
Quoting MississippiWx:


You...said...that.

Said what... Pin-hole eye???
I said that earlier. lol
2381. Levi32
994mb from dropsonde 12kt winds.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would like to know who was wishcasting for Ernesto to come to the U.S anyway?.From what I've seen people were discussing it as a possibility.


When someone posts a particular model run that showed Ernesto (or any storm, real or model created or just plain imagined, heading for a CONUS landfall) in the GOMEX as a strong hurricane with the verbiage, complete with any number of explanation points "WOW!!!" what is one to think?

When I start seeing NHC statements doing that type of thing I will start seeing those people/posts as sensible and nonbiased...or the NHC has lost all credibility, the later more likely.
Quoting Levi32:
77-kt flight level wind reported, and the straight pass through instead of the loop last time reveals an extremely small center with a markedly steep pressure gradient, which, to be realistic, is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye.



Technically moving north.....is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye. You're start a frenzy in here with language like that. LOL
New satellite image reveals yet another huge blowup of intense thunderstorms over the center.

Quoting Levi32:
Unflagged 62kt SFMR reading in the NW eyewall.



consistent with an eye
microwave is iffy but a lot of red:
Quoting Hawkeyewx:
I'm very impressed with what Ernesto is doing this morning. As soon as the surface flow stopped screaming westward, the storm was able to align itself and explode. Amazing how fast this stuff can happen.

Nuclear TCHP can do that.
Quoting Levi32:


I can't imagine how they cannot update the intensity for the interests in Honduras, Roatan, and the Yucatan.
Do you think a cat 2 can happen with Ernesto before a landfall in Yucatan?
Quoting jiminceiba:


ok, thanks...I be learnin...need to..thing is coming my way big time...just about ready to go and stock up on rum

Important to stock up on that.

I don't use JSL for locating cloud-covered eyes. Rainbow or RBTOP are the best for that due to contrast.

RBTOP (you can't see an eye in this one)
Quoting jascott1967:


When someone posts a particular model run that showed Ernesto (or any storm, real or model created or just plain imagined, heading for a CONUS landfall) in the GOMEX as a strong hurricane with the verbiage, complete with any number of explanation points "WOW!!!" what is one to think?

When I start seeing NHC statements doing that type of thing I will start seeing those people/posts as sensible and nonbiased...or the NHC has lost all credibility, the later more likely.
You mush be talking about ilovehurricanes a.k.a Jason.
Why is it that nobody can get the weather right in the northeast.
Forcasting is down right awful in this part of country, 30% of the time there are right at best over the last year,
I wish I could be wrong 70%of the time at my job too!
I just cant believe how really off they are!
yes Ernesto is moving NW
Good Morning...
I said last night that Ernesto would look way better in the morning...and I was right....

...but that isn't a good thing.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, have to be up this early to get a video out, which I have to record right now if I'm to get to work on time. Hate working on days like this.

You mean you don't have a cough coming on? ;)
Quoting Levi32:
994mb from dropsonde 12kt winds.


down from 997mb half an hour ago?
2395. Levi32
Quoting washingaway:


Technically moving north.....is consistent with the development of a pinhole eye. You're start a frenzy in here with language like that. LOL


Just passing along observations. Folks here know I don't make those kind of observations lightly.
2396. Levi32
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


down from 997mb half an hour ago?


The 997mb dropsonde was with 43kt winds though. Actual pressure fall during the last 80 minutes is about 1mb.
Quoting jeffs713:

You mean you don't have a cough coming on? ;)


he does...even i can hear it all the way in GA....you really oughta take the day off levi...or the week off...or how about the hurricane season off......?

lol
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why is it that nobody can get the weather right in the northeast.
Forcasting is down right awful in this part of country, 30% of the time there are right at best over the last year,
I wish I could be wrong 70%of the time at my job too!
I just cant believe how really off they are!

Depends on what you consider "right", and how precise you want them to be.

If they give you a 50% chance of rain, and it doesn't rain anywhere in the forecast area, that is a busted forecast. If they give a 50% chance of rain, and some areas in the forecast area get rain... its a good forecast.


_
Quoting Levi32:


The 997mb dropsonde was with 43kt winds though. Actual pressure fall during the last 80 minutes is about 1mb.
Would you go as far as saying RI?
I hate this storm.

Ernesto has beaten some odds the past several days. Will be real interesting to see if he throws another punch today and thumbs his nose at the current TS status through landfall near the Yucatan.

Gonna sit back for the time being and see what NHC, and the models do, later on today as they process the Hunter information. The evening runs later tonight will give us a better picture as to what adjustments to intensity and track may be needed.

Ernesto will probably be up to 70mph in the next advisory or 75mph.
Time: 13:19:00Z
Coordinates: 15.8167N 80.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.5 mb (~ 25.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,440 meters (~ 4,724 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72 at 72 knots (From the ENE at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 29 mm/hr (~ 1.14 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Oh don't we all hate it :).We've been trolled one to many times this year by storms.
Makes you wonder with that big ULL in the SW Gulf doesn't sling shot that thing NW into Gulf, but that isn't the case according to experts and everyone else. That is a massive ULL
Hey Levi. hope you are doing well. two quick questions for you. First, do you agree with CSU raising their storm total forecast? Second, given the projected upper air patter in the coming peak months of hurricane season, which portions of eastern US and gulf coast would you say is at risk? Do you think this season kind of mirrors patterns and tracks of 2004 and 2005? Thanks.
Quoting AussieStorm:

would a Circular eye with a diameter of 6 nautical miles be classified as a pinhole eye??


Anything under 10 is considered small. Wilma's eye was 1.9mi across.

Eye_(cyclone)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Time: 13:19:00Z
Coordinates: 15.8167N 80.25W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.5 mb (~ 25.06 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,440 meters (~ 4,724 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 72%uFFFD at 72 knots (From the ENE at ~ 82.8 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0%uFFFDC* (~ 59.0%uFFFDF*)
Dew Pt: 15.0%uFFFDC* (~ 59.0%uFFFDF*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 77 knots (~ 88.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 56 knots (~ 64.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 29 mm/hr (~ 1.14 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Morning, this was NHC at 8 a.m.
8:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 6
Location: 15.2N 81.0W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

Can this be considered rapid intensification less than 2 hours later?
Quoting allancalderini:
Ernesto will probably be up to 70mph in the next advisory or 75mph.

ATCF says 65mph, so they'll probably go with that.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

ATCF says 65mph, so they'll probably go with that.


Still an hour of observations left. 77kt flight level winds are impressive for NW quad. Would love to see NE quad.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

ATCF says 65mph, so they'll probably go with that.
not.if.next.fly.threw.is.about.100mph.flight.leve l..going.up.fast
With a 6nm eye in the NW Caribbean, interesting things can happen.

Time: 13:20:00Z
Coordinates: 15.85N 80.3W
Acft. Static Air Press: 847.7 mb (~ 25.03 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,472 meters (~ 4,829 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.1 mb (~ 29.68 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 76 at 54 knots (From the ENE at ~ 62.1 mph)
Air Temp: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Dew Pt: 15.0C* (~ 59.0F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 57 knots (~ 65.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 62 knots (~ 71.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 37 mm/hr (~ 1.46 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
What time is 13:19:00z? And how do you convert that to Caribbean time at 81W, anybody know?
2416. Grothar
img src="">
2417. Grothar
Yo Gro.
if Ernesto Gets any stronger you could see him moving NNW
Quoting MississippiWx:


Still an hour of observations left. 77kt flight level winds are impressive for NW quad. Would love to see NE quad.


Agreed, they will probably hit the NE quad right before advisory time.
URNT12 KNHC 061344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/13:17:00Z
B. 15 deg 43 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 40 kt
E. 137 deg 3 nm
F. 235 deg 54 kt
G. 137 deg 3 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1538 m
J. 21 C / 1400 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE
Carl parker from the weather channel says RI is taking place
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
With a 6nm eye in the NW Caribbean, interesting things can happen.



Where did you get the updated RAMSDIS satellite? The site doesn't show any of them updating since Ernesto was in the Eastern Caribbean.
2424. Grothar
What happened to all those RIP's from last night.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Still an hour of observations left. 77kt flight level winds are impressive for NW quad. Would love to see NE quad.

Hurricane?
Quoting Chicklit:
What time is 13:19:00z? And how do you convert that to Caribbean time at 81W, anybody know?


1:19 pm
It really sucks that the NASA site is still not updating. The rapid scan loops would be great today now that the center is above 15N.
From this.....
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 12:13:30Z
Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg)

to this.....
Time: 13:17:00Z
Coordinates: 15.7333N 80.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 848.1 mb (~ 25.04 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,400 meters (~ 4,593 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 994.5 mb (~ 29.37 inHg)

in 1hr 4mins.
2.5mb drop in pressure
Quoting MississippiWx:


Where did you get the updated RAMSDIS satellite? The site doesn't show any of them updating since Ernesto was in the Eastern Caribbean.


Link
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hurricane?


More than likely.
Quoting Chicklit:
What time is 13:19:00z? And how do you convert that to Caribbean time at 81W, anybody know?
We are on EST so you subtract 5 hours which makes it 8:19.
Quoting MississippiWx:


More than likely.

A bit ahead of schedule.
Quoting floridaboy14:
Carl parker from the weather channel says RI is taking place
I don't want to hear that :)(By the way the smiley face is sarcastic).That means Ernesto is more than likely to feel the weakness.
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to all those RIP's from last night.

busy tucking into a plate of fried crow with a side of crown and a tall glass of crow juice.
Quoting kshipre1:
Hey Levi. hope you are doing well. two quick questions for you. First, do you agree with CSU raising their storm total forecast? Second, given the projected upper air patter in the coming peak months of hurricane season, which portions of eastern US and gulf coast would you say is at risk? Do you think this season kind of mirrors patterns and tracks of 2004 and 2005? Thanks.
Anyone can probably answer these questions. 1- Yes, 2- Gulf Coast, Tampa, SFLA, Texas. 3- Yes.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


1:19 pm
Wrong. Z is Zulu which is -5 for EST or -4 for EDT.
Quoting Chicklit:
What time is 13:19:00z? And how do you convert that to Caribbean time at 81W, anybody know?


Hope this helps..CONVERTING ZULU TIME TO LOCAL TIME
Quoting MississippiWx:


More than likely.


possibly... Knowing the NHC 65 - 70 mph
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Link


Muchas gracias.
Ernie looking healthy in rainbow....



and not bad in visable
2441. ncstorm
I thought this was cute since people were posting about the Mars landing but evidently there is life on mars..

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
URNT12 KNHC 061344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 06/13:17:00Z
B. 15 deg 43 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1381 m
D. 40 kt
E. 137 deg 3 nm
F. 235 deg 54 kt
G. 137 deg 3 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 17 C / 1538 m
J. 21 C / 1400 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C8
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0805A ERNESTO OB 10
MAX FL WIND 55 KT E QUAD 12:05:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 77 KT NW QUAD 13:19:00Z
GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE


I leave for 12 hours and Ernesto goes from a scrub storm to a probable hurricane? Daaaaaaang!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We are on EST so you subtract 5 hours which makes it 8:19.

Okay thanks, that's what had me confused. They are going on UTC time.


Link Water Vapor Loop
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


1:19 pm


I can never figure these conversions. I was thinking military time. 1300 is 1:00 pm.
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to all those RIP's from last night.


ive had a good lol at the blog this week....people here know much but let other things get in the way of sense... well at least some people do...


Now if Ernesto bombs out and turns into a nasty major remember your PERFECT MODELS didn't catch that did they?
Quoting ncstorm:
I thought this was cute since people were posting about the Mars landing but evidently there is life on mars..



Saw that on George Takei's page...
Quoting AussieStorm:

busy tucking into a plate of fried crow with a side of crown and a tall glass of crow juice.

crow goes well with BBQ sauce, didn't you know? They might be at the store getting some.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Muchos gracias.

It's "Muchas gracias".
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
We are on EST so you subtract 5 hours which makes it 8:19.

its 9:19am est.

12z UTC is 8am when they do the tropical weather outlook and run the models.
And morning, Grothar!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now if Ernesto bombs out and turns into a nasty major remember your PERFECT MODELS didn't catch that did they?


If it becomes a major, yes. Otherwise, the GFS has been spot on this entire time.
Quoting NewEnglandExpress:
Why is it that nobody can get the weather right in the northeast.
Forcasting is down right awful in this part of country, 30% of the time there are right at best over the last year,
I wish I could be wrong 70%of the time at my job too!
I just cant believe how really off they are!


When I was living in Duluth, MN when the NWS predicted 1-3 inches of snow we would routinely get 8-12. When they predicted 8-12 we'd get a trace to 3.

Some places the weather is just harder to predict than others. The only thing I was sure of up there were the temps and when they predicted a foot or more me, the shovel and my snow blower were going to get a workout!
Could be a temporary jog, or knowing Ernesto, a relocation of the COC to the NE but he is "off" of the latest forecast track......Everything is going to shift to the right later today at this rate.
Quoting jeffs713:

crow goes well with BBQ sauce, didn't you know? They might be at the store getting some.
Sorry Jeff.But I like mines with A1 steak sauce.
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good


Ernesto is a hurricane , could get a special advisory soon, appears to be moving NW also.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It's "Muchas gracias".


Hey...I speak Spanglish. Duh.
2458. Hugo5
rapid intensification may not be ruled out at this time, but usually means around 50mph wind increase in around 6-8 hours from what I have seen. a 2.5mb drop in pressure in one hour is pretty awsome though.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry Jeff.But I like mines with A1 steak sauce.

To each their own. My dislike of crow is why I tend to avoid making bold predictions - especially those unsupported by data. When Ernesto was still east of the islands, I said once it passes 75W, it would slow down and blow up. And it did. But that wasn't much of a reach, since all the data and models were right there with it.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

ATCF says 65mph, so they'll probably go with that.
But they are finding higher readings.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2462. WxLogic
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey...I speak Spanglish. Duh.


LOL...
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


I can never figure these conversions. I was thinking military time. 1300 is 1:00 pm.

Yeah thanks, UTC or Zulu time which must be what the "z" is, is 5 hrs. earlier than EST time and then another hr. for Central, Mountain, and Western.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If it becomes a major, yes. Otherwise, the GFS has been spot on this entire time.


models and the nhc arent into putting any RI into a forecast.... they just go with expected gradual intensification...but then this might not be RI either
Quoting stormpetrol:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 13:44Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 05L in 2012
Storm Name: Ernesto (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 13:17:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°43'N 80°10'W (15.7167N 80.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 261 miles (420 km) to the SSE (162°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,381m (4,531ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 235° at 54kts (From the SW at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 3 nautical miles (3 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 994mb (29.35 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,538m (5,046ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,400m (4,593ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) in the east quadrant at 12:05:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:19:00Z
Radar Signature: Good


Ernesto is a hurricane , could get a special advisory soon, appears to be moving NW also.

I don't see a hurricane in that.
Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey...I speak Spanglish. Duh.

LOL
200 mb level showing some intensity finally.
Quoting chevycanes:

its 9:19am est.

12z UTC is 8am when they do the tropical weather outlook and run the models.
Incorrect.

Eastern Time) GMT-5
2470. centex
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to all those RIP's from last night.
I don't think they factored in relocation and intensification this early. Will be interesting to see what direction it’s moving which will take a few more hours.
00:00 UTC = 8:00 p.m. EDT
01:00 UTC = 9:00 p.m. EDT
02:00 UTC = 10:00 p.m. EDT
03:00 UTC = 11:00 p.m. EDT
04:00 UTC = 12:00 a.m. EDT
05:00 UTC = 1:00 a.m. EDT
06:00 UTC = 2:00 a.m. EDT
07:00 UTC = 3:00 a.m. EDT
08:00 UTC = 4:00 a.m. EDT
09:00 UTC = 5:00 a.m. EDT
10:00 UTC = 6:00 a.m. EDT
11:00 UTC = 7:00 a.m. EDT
12:00 UTC = 8:00 a.m. EDT
13:00 UTC = 9:00 a.m. EDT
14:00 UTC = 10:00 a.m. EDT
15:00 UTC = 11:00 a.m. EDT
16:00 UTC = 12:00 p.m. EDT
17:00 UTC = 1:00 p.m. EDT
18:00 UTC = 2:00 p.m. EDT
19:00 UTC = 3:00 p.m. EDT
20:00 UTC = 4:00 p.m. EDT
21:00 UTC = 5:00 p.m. EDT
22:00 UTC = 6:00 p.m. EDT
23:00 UTC = 7:00 p.m. EDT
Quoting superpete:


Currently 15 mph [max] wind here on the south coast, seas five to seven feet at Spotts Dock. You need to relax, this isn't coming to Cayman
looking like Caymans won't get worse than what JA did yesterday.

Quoting Jeff9645:
Ernesto is a Yucatan and Mexico storm now, sorry US wishcasters :)
If it gets strong enough, still think Brownsville area could get some rain from this....

2473. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon does reveal a somewhat pinhole eye with Ernesto. Interesting, 6 miles is very small. Ernesto has a very tight core.
That should change, especially if forward movement slows a bit more. Ernest will be small for a while, but should grow quickly with such a large mid level circulation. I Mentioned on the 4th that this may be a large and intense storm, if the track stays off the Honduran coast, it still might happen.
2474. hydrus
Quoting BahaHurican:
looking like Caymans won't get worse than what JA did yesterday.

If it gets strong enough, still think Brownsville area could get some rain from this....

Hurricanes are weird. They can change course even when it does not look like they should. I am wondering how much the storm will slow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is dangerous because if it doesn't lose its eyewall, there is a chance it will undergo explosive intensification.


So is EI faster than RI?
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


I can never figure these conversions. I was thinking military time. 1300 is 1:00 pm.


I use to have a conversion chart posted to the side of my computer desk -- made life easier.
afternoon everyone. i went to bed last night and saw 50 mph winds and yall telling me this thing slowed down and growing in size? whats really going on! and everyone is RI rapid intensification?



Weatherbell
INaccuweather says the exact opposite to the image above.
Food for thought....

1934 - TS #2
Storm Two carved an erratic path through Central America and the Gulf of Mexico, causing catastrophic flooding that killed thousands. It formed in the Gulf of Honduras in early June and slowly moved north and then west into Belize as as Tropical Storm. Over the next four days, it made a slow loop over the same general region of Central America. It went down through Guatemala and El Salvador and then back north into Honduras and the western Caribbean. Still hugging the coast, it strengthened into a hurricane, making landfall north of Majahual, Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula. It weakened back to a storm as it began to move west across the northern part of the peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. The storm slowed down further, making a tight (and rare second) counterclockwise loop then turning northward and gaining speed. It regained hurricane status, making landfall in Louisiana at Point au Fer Island on the east end of Atchafalaya Bay. The scale of the destruction in Central America was immense. As many as 3,000 people died in the catastrophic floods. Many places saw in excess of two feet of rain in just 72 hours.

Link
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Food for thought....

1934 - TS #2
Storm Two carved an erratic path through Central America and the Gulf of Mexico, causing catastrophic flooding that killed thousands. It formed in the Gulf of Honduras in early June and slowly moved north and then west into Belize as as Tropical Storm. Over the next four days, it made a slow loop over the same general region of Central America. It went down through Guatemala and El Salvador and then back north into Honduras and the western Caribbean. Still hugging the coast, it strengthened into a hurricane, making landfall north of Majahual, Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula. It weakened back to a storm as it began to move west across the northern part of the peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. The storm slowed down further, making a tight (and rare second) counterclockwise loop then turning northward and gaining speed. It regained hurricane status, making landfall in Louisiana at Point au Fer Island on the east end of Atchafalaya Bay. The scale of the destruction in Central America was immense. As many as 3,000 people died in the catastrophic floods. Many places saw in excess of two feet of rain in just 72 hours.

Link


Looking more at this website...storms do REALLY crazy things when they hit Belize. Interesting read!
Quoting hydrus:
Hurricanes are weird. They can change course even when it does not look like they should. I am wondering how much the storm will slow.


Look at my post above.
LinkMy forecast for T.D 7