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Ernesto closing in on the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto is closing in on the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Latest data from the Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm found the pressure had dropped to its lowest value yet--988 mb at 9:12 am EDT. Top surface winds as seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 60 - 65 mph range, and the plane found 72 mph winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet, on the northeast side of the eye. Ernesto does not have an eyewall, but the Hurricane Hunters noted an eyewall may be the process of forming, from the north to the south-southeast side of the center. Visible and infrared satellite loops show that Ernesto's heavy thunderstorms have expanded in areal extent and intensity to form a Central Dense Overcast (CDO), a feature of intensifying tropical storms. Ernesto is encountering light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The dry air that mixed into Ernesto's core and disrupted it on Monday is no longer apparent on water vapor satellite loops.

Winds at the Yucatan Basin buoy, about 140 miles north of the 10 am EDT position of Ernesto, were sustained at 34 mph, gusting to 40 mph, at 10 am EDT. Winds along the north coast of Honduras have been light the past day, and a personal weather station on Roatan Island off the north coast of Honduras picked up 1.51" of rain from Ernesto as of 10 am EDT. Sporadic heavy rains from Ernesto's outer spiral bands have affected Belize City, Belize most of the morning; these bands can be seen on Belize radar.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Sotrm Ernesto, taken at 11:35 am EDT August 6, 2012. At the time, Ernesto had top winds of 65 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Ernesto
Ernesto does not have an eyewall, and this will severely limit the storm's chances of rapid intensification until the storm can build one. However, Ernesto is under light wind shear and over warm ocean waters of 29°C with very high heat content, so some modest intensification to a Category 1 hurricane is possible before landfall occurs near midnight tonight near the Belize/Mexico border. Heavy rains will be the main threat from Ernesto. The storm will take about a day to cross the Yucatan, and its winds will probably diminish by 15 - 25 mph. Once Ernesto re-emerges over water into the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico, wind shear will be light and ocean waters warm with high heat content. I expect Ernesto will increase its winds by 15 - 25 mph while over the Bay of Campeche, and the storm could be near Category 1 hurricane strength when it makes a second landfall near Veracruz, Mexico.

Crossing the Yucatan: a history
Hurricanes and tropical storms regularly cross Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and enter the Bay of Campeche, the Gulf of Mexico's southernmost region. Since the crossing usually takes less than a day and the peninsula is surrounded by warm ocean water that can help feed the storm during the crossing, the great majority of storms survive the trek. Once in the Bay of Campeche, most storms regenerate, even though there is not much room for the storm to go before a second landfall in Mexico occurs. This is because the curved shape of the mountain-lined coast helps boost counter-clockwise spin of the air, and the waters in the bay are among the warmest in the North Atlantic. Typically, a storm that crosses the Yucatan with a mostly westward track and enters the Bay of Campeche will intensify by 15 - 25 mph before making a second landfall in Mexico. Let's consider two historical analogue case for what might happen to Ernesto.


Figure 2. Track of Hurricane Karl of 2010.


Figure 3. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl was the most southerly major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

Hurricane Karl of 2010
Hurricane Karl of 2010 hit the Yucatan near the Belize/Mexican border as a tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Karl took 18 hours to cross the Yucatan, and weakened to a 45 mph tropical storm during the crossing. Remarkably, though, conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicated that the storm’s organization and vertical structure improved during the crossing, with the appearance of an eye-like feature and an increase in low-level spiral bands. This probably occurred as a result of frictional convergence--when air flowing over the smooth ocean surface moves over land, the increased friction causes the air to slow down and flow at a sharper angle towards a center of low pressure. Once the storm reached the Bay of Campeche, Karl took advantage of low wind shear, ocean temperatures of 29 - 30°C, and a moist atmosphere, to put on an impressive show of rapid intensification. Karl took only 12 hours to regain its strength, and within 36 hours of exiting the Yucatan, had intensified to a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. This sort of intensification so far south in the Bay of Campeche was unprecedented, and Karl was the strongest major hurricane ever observed so far south in the Gulf of Mexico. Karl dumped 10 -15 inches of rain over most of the northwestern half of the state of Veracruz, triggering floods that killed 22 and did $400 million in damage.


Figure 4. Track of Tropical Storm Hermine of 1980.

Tropical Storm Hermine of 1980
A more likely historical analogue storm for Ernesto may be Tropical Storm Hermine of 1980. Hermine hit the Yucatan near the border between Belize and Mexico with 70 mph winds. The 24-hour crossing of the Yucatan weakened Hermine's winds to 50 mph. After emerging into the Bay of Campeche, Hermine turned to the west-southwest and made landfall southeast of Veracruz 30 hours later, with top winds of 70 mph.

Other storms of the past 30 years with a similar landfall location to Ernesto's
Hurricane Dean of 2007 hit the Yucatan near the Belize/Mexican border as a large Category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds. Dean took 10 hours to cross the Yucatan, and weakened to a 75 mph Category 1 hurricane during the crossing. Upon reaching the Bay of Campeche, Dean strengthened by 25 mph to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, before its second landfall occurred.

Hurricane Keith (2000)
Hurricane Dolly (1996)
Hurricane Diana (1990)

92L
A tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is disorganized, with limited heavy thunderstorm activity and a modest amount of spin at mid-levels of the atmosphere. Of the six main models used operationally by NHC, only one--the HWRF--develops 92L. The storm is at least 6 days from the Lesser Antilles Islands, if it maintains a westward motion.


Figure 5. NOAA-19 AVHRR image of the big low pressure system in the Arctic, taken at 9 am EDT August 7, 2012. At the time, the GFS analysis gave a central pressure of 970 mb for the low. Image credit: NOAA and Environment Canada. Thanks go to wunderblogger Grothar for pointing out this image to me.

Big storm in the Arctic
A remarkably intense low pressure system formed in the Arctic north of Alaska Monday, bottoming out with a central pressure of 963 mb at 2 pm EDT. A pressure this low is rare any time of the year in the Arctic, and is exceptionally so in summer. The storm is stacked vertically with the upper-level low, and will spin in place and slowly weaken over the next few days, but remain unusually strong. Strong winds behind the low's cold front caused a 1.3' storm surge Monday in Prudhoe Bay, on Alaska's north shore. As noted in Neven Acropolis' sea ice blog, the strong winds around this low have the potential to cause a large loss of Arctic sea ice, due to churning, increased wave action, pushing of ice into warmer waters, and the mixing up of warmer waters from beneath the ice. According to the latest analysis from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice extent was at a record low extent as of August 1. This week's big storm will likely keep Arctic sea ice at record low levels for the next week or two.

Angela Fritz will have an update on Ernesto late this afternoon or early this evening.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. angiest
Quoting Coastalgramps:


What is a LBAR?


A model that doesn't have much skill at tropical cycle forecasting, and so you rarely see it posted for an established system like this one. In this case, it was showing Ernesto moving toward Brownsville, and seemed to be doing that along with only CLP, which just shows where storms in Ernesto's position have historically gone without regard to current patterns.
this is amazing

1004. Patrap
thru 18:45

looks like i will have to reformat my blog page now with new floaters all off them
Ernie may wink at us just before he hits land.
Why do I get the feeling he's about to pop a pinhole...?

1008. Patrap
The Hurricane has excellent outflow n all Quads now.



Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of twisting and turning going on here with 92L:



You can really see the monstrous amount of dry stable air to his northwest being en-trained directly into his "center"
Quoting weatherh98:
wahhh new toy


Excelent, animated Gifs added...
Quoting Coastalgramps:


What is a LBAR?


A cut and paste from the web

LBAR - A Nested Barotropic Hurricane Track Forecast Model


LBAR is a dynamical track prediction model. LBAR is the NHC's implementation of the GFDL VICBAR model. (VICBAR stands for Vic Ooyama's Barotropic model.) The model is initialized with deep layer mean winds and geopotential heights from a mass-weighted average of the 850, 700, 500, 400, 300 and 200 mb levels. Analyses are produced on three nested grids: (1) a fixed synoptic domain 27.5 S to 67.5 N, 10 E to 140 W; (2) a storm environment 50 degree latitude-longitude box centered on the current storm location; and (3) a vortex domain circle of 7.4 degree (about 800 km) radius centered on the current storm location


Much clearer now, right ??
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Why do I get the feeling he's about to pop a pinhole...?



because i see a pinhole -___-
Anyone have a microwave shot of Ernie? I want to know what kind of eye wall is being built right now? Is it fully closed yet?
1015. keisa90
Looking at radar, he seems to have closed off an eye with a slight jog to the west.
If it was like this yesterday, we may be looking at a 3 or a 4
1017. LargoFl
Quoting tennisgirl08:


PUNTA ALLEN should get worst of Ernesto - NE quadrant

Hurricane force winds could reach as far north as Cozumel.
..it just may take a near or direct hit if this track holds..what damage will be there..geez and cancun may take its northern hit as ernesto tracks at an angle across the yucatan..this looks to be very bad, hope this doesnt happen..drove all the way across mexico in the 80's to cancun..those people living on the yucatan..oh boy..hotel bell boy i befriended who took good care of me and my friends..made a whopping 4.00 a day wages..thats how poor those people are, and the housing, i wont get into..this is going to be bad
Quoting weatherh98:


how was school?

7 new classes, 7 new syllabusses?

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.
Quoting MississippiWx:
The eye looks really good on Belize's radar.

Sure does.
9 2 L

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.

Fish bowling. You didn't hear that here, or from me.
1023. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.


thats how ill feel about the eighth graders...
New intense burst on the SE of the eye but its look as if it might be open to the SE as well

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.



FRESHIES!!!!!
Quoting jeffs713:

Fish bowling. You didn't hear that here, or from me.


we hide the blog from our friends... if we didnt we prolly wouldnt have friends
whats not get Carried Away with the new Floaters plzs
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.

Freshies & fresh fish, we are both not one of them anymore.
1030. LargoFl
In the meantime..south georgia, pay attention to your local warnings..stay safe up there.....................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
359 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN APPLING COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 400 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF SURRENCY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL
AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS
INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Quoting keisa90:
Looking at radar, he seems to have closed off an eye with a slight jog to the west.


definitley not on satellite though
Quoting kmanislander:
New intense burst on the SE of the eye but its look as if it might be open to the SE as well



It isn't...Just look at Belize radar.
1033. yoboi
Quoting tennisgirl08:


I was just teasing but ok :)


idk just funny...
1034. Msdrown
Quoting tornadolarkin:
Ernesto, in recent sat images, almost looks like hes trying to go due northwest, and maybe a little bit north of northwest.


Wouldn't that just be a wobble like yesterday??
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.


I feel your pain man. Freshmen.....
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Anyone have a microwave shot of Ernie? I want to know what kind of eye wall is being built right now? Is it fully closed yet?

This is the most recent pass, which is five hours old, but hopefully, we will be getting some new data coming in soon.



This is the latest microwave from a few hours ago... No eyewall then, but there is obviously one now.
Quoting Patrap:
The Hurricane has excellent outflow n all Quads now.



breathing now drawing in the heat humity
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats not get Carried Away with the new Floaters plzs

Pretty colors...
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats not get Carried Away with the new Floaters plzs


They will soon crash the servers and then limits will be placed on the number of images that can be loaded. Best not to abuse a good thing.
Quoting WxGeekVA:



FRESHIES!!!!!

Hey, we thought of that at the same time.
Quoting kmanislander:


They will soon crash the servers and then limits will be placed on the number of images that can be loaded. Best not to abuse a good thing.



so ture they would all soo crash the blog on evere one uesing a older laptop or slower DSL or user that are still on di up
e.carib.surprise?could..be.farmers.hurricane
Ernesto has good outflow and deep convection, cat2 or 3 if he had more time over water.
ya thats the one thing limit the used of gif anim or you could bog down the blog
We have Freshie Fridays at our school for the first quarter of the year... It's pretty much hazing, but we call it "orientation"...

I love being a senior!
1047. LargoFl
Convection is firing in a ring around the center now, instead of over it. Eye might pop right before landfall.

1049. scott39
Look for landfall just S of Cozumel.
Here's TS Gilma.
"those people living on the yucatan..oh boy..hotel bell boy i befriended who took good care of me and my friends..made a whopping 4.00 a day wages..thats how poor those people are, and the housing, i wont get into..this is going to be bad"

Oh dear. Are you kidding?
Gordon....

1054. LargoFl
when Ernie comes crashing ashore..will he have a BIG storm surge in front of him?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.


Oh please that was you three months ago.
Im getting good belly laughs from the Model Grovelers and the Wishcaster's From Hell Point / Counterpoint Arguments...I love you all!
1057. Patrap
Quoting MississippiWx:


It isn't...Just look at Belize radar.


Saw that.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Fine other than all the little freshmen crowding the hallway.
Just wait till you're a senior..
Wow.
Ernesto looks like a Cat 2 at least now.
Wouldn't be surprised if winds were 110.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
We have Freshie Fridays at our school for the first quarter of the year... It's pretty much hazing, but we call it "orientation"...

I love being a senior!
We had something like that, glad I'm in 10th grade now even though nothing ever happened to me.
Quoting Levi32:


It's not hard to code lol, just takes an imagination for products that might be widely useful. Maybe SSD is thinking of us bloggers out here lol.

Eh, good news is I can now stop wasting CPU on the SSD loops. I will however keep the African METEOSAT loops up for you guys because those are not published anywhere else on the web yet.
Cool. Can we expect more model derived products now that most of the loops have been removed?
Quoting sunlinepr:
9 2 L



92L does not look healthy- must be the dry air.
30% for 92L at 8PM
Looking good. Might just see that eye pop out on satellite.

1066. Patrap
GOM 19:45 UTC Rainbow

1067. scott39
What does the terrain look like where Ernesto will make landfall?
Quoting LargoFl:
when Ernie comes crashing ashore..will he have a BIG storm surge in front of him?

nothing unusually large, I'd think. He hasn't had the winds or time to push an abnormal amount of water ahead of him.
1069. LargoFl
.........................Check out the wave heights
Quoting scott39:
Look for landfall just S of Cozumel.

cozumel too north. On radar storm seems to be moving just N of due west if not completely west.

1071. Sangria
I have seen many firm comments here, that Ernesto is going to turn west....and I realize that the models, and the official track, take it west......but can any of you explain the reasoning behind an abrupt turn that NHC is still stating? Is there a parameter that is being missed? Do they see a High that is REALLY strong, somewhere????? Thanks for any insight!!
Quoting wxchaser97:
We had something like that, glad I'm in 10th grade now even though nothing ever happened to me.


I was too big as an eighth grader for seniors to mmess with me sooo....
1073. LargoFl
Quoting jeffs713:

nothing unusually large, I'd think. He hasn't had the winds or time to push an abnormal amount of water ahead of him.
..ok ty
Quoting scott39:
What does the terrain look like where Ernesto will make landfall?

Flat, with some extra flatness.
Quoting Coastalgramps:


What is a LBAR?


It's a computer model. Currently it thinks Ernie is headed for South Texas.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Oh please that was you three months ago.

And I can tell why all the sophomores, juniors, and seniors hate them, lol.
I got to go for awhile, who knows what the 5pm advisory will give me?
Back later
Quoting Ameister12:

Sure does.


oh yeah...that last frame is nice! He is definitely closing off his eye wall.
Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are never good. Could be borderline Cat 2 by now.

Quoting weatherh98:


I was too big as an eighth grader for seniors to mmess with me sooo....

I'm smaller for my age, idk how I escaped but whatever.
Gordon may come from 92L 1st
1083. scott39
Quoting jeffs713:

Flat, with some extra flatness.
Not good
1084. nigel20
Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm smaller for my age, idk how I escaped but whatever.


Im 6'4" and i was like the third tallest in the school...
Quoting MississippiWx:
Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are never good. Could be borderline Cat 2 by now.


Is that an eye:) Sure does look strong and I hope anyone in his way is prepared for the worst.
The Mexican coastline along the western Gulf of Mexico is lucky for the Yucatan peninsula. If that landmass wasn't there, this thing would continue strengthening to a cat 4/5 under a truly ideal upper level environment and warm ocean while trade winds and dry air are also no longer problems.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are never good. Could be borderline Cat 2 by now.



Another similarity to Alex. Decides to bomb out before shore. Hoping that Ernesto isn't as bad as Alex was for northern Mexico.
Quoting weatherh98:


Im 6'4" and i was like the third tallest in the school...

For me try 11" smaller but I am older.
12Z GFS ENSEMBLE Not good for me in WPB!!



Quoting Sangria:
I have seen many firm comments here, that Ernesto is going to turn west....and I realize that the models, and the official track, take it west......but can any of you explain the reasoning behind an abrupt turn that NHC is still stating? Is there a parameter that is being missed? Do they see a High that is REALLY strong, somewhere????? Thanks for any insight!!

The high that will turn it is over TX right now. And it is a strong high. (same one that has been baking Oklahoma for the past 2 weeks)

Also, there is a general lack of a weakness in the proper position between the two influential high pressure systems that could pull Ernesto more northward. Hurricanes basically get pushed around by high pressure. By "proper position", I mean far enough west that the circulation around the western high pressure doesn't counteract the pull of the trough.

For Ernesto to be pulled north, the trough would have to be over TX.
Quoting Patrap:
The Hurricane has excellent outflow n all Quads now.




Note the surge in outflow to the N which appears to be surface based linear convection. Doesn't appear to have much cin or midlevel sinking air ivof; I think that the steering currents are subtly changing and we should see the storm following the heat energy (thcp) as a minor component of steering in the short term in this weakening/modifying flow.
NOt good for the U.S

Quoting Sangria:
I have seen many firm comments here, that Ernesto is going to turn west....and I realize that the models, and the official track, take it west......but can any of you explain the reasoning behind an abrupt turn that NHC is still stating? Is there a parameter that is being missed? Do they see a High that is REALLY strong, somewhere????? Thanks for any insight!!


Yes. The ridge over the Central Plains is REALLY strong. This has been the death ridge that Texans have been complaining about for quite some time now. why there is lack of rain, so dry, etc. Ernesto should slide under that ridge.
1095. LargoFl
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


92L does not look healthy- must be the dry air.


Models do not develop it.... But they do with the new wave from Africa...
Quoting wxchaser97:

For me try 11" smaller but I am older.


age is but a number (mainly to grothar)
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z GFS ENSEMBLE Not good for me in WPB!!






dont show that too JFV he will be jumping for joy
Quoting TomTaylor:
The Mexican coastline along the western Gulf of Mexico is lucky for the Yucatan peninsula. If that landmass wasn't there, this thing would continue strengthening to a cat 4/5 under a truly ideal upper level environment and warm ocean while trade winds and dry air are also no longer problems.



However,the land is almost flat and that wont dissipate Ernesto. It may go up again in BOC.
Quoting weatherh98:


age is but a number (mainly to grothar)

After 25, you don't have birthdays. You have anniversaries.
Quoting LargoFl:
when Ernie comes crashing ashore..will he have a BIG storm surge in front of him?


It's had quite the fetch to work with but the topography it will be affecting probably won't allow as big a storm surge as if it were arriving on say the Texas coast.
T.C.W.
05L/H/E/C2
MARK
R.I.FLAG ON
18.76N/86.06W
1103. LargoFl
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,the land is almost flat and that wont dissipate Ernesto. It may go up again in BOC.
..some swampy lands in there also..giving him water
Quoting MississippiWx:
Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are never good. Could be borderline Cat 2 by now.



Definitely. He looks good now.
1105. Patrap
Quoting jeffs713:

After 25, you don't have birthdays. You have anniversaries.


After 50 you wunder where the car keys went.

1106. gator23
Quoting jeffs713:

Flat, with some extra flatness.

Its not that flat. I have been in that area. It is heavily forested away from the coast and their are cliffs near the coast especially near Tulum. In fact Tulum is built on a cliff. Hilly
Look at the big wave to enter Africa from the Indian Ocean...

most of the analyst are putting more emphasis on the wave still to the african coast wnich they believe will be gordon.on the other hand 92L which is showing signs of increasing organisation and which no doubt will be helene could pose a serious threat to the lesser antilles monday next week
Quoting MississippiWx:
Strengthening hurricanes at landfall are never good. Could be borderline Cat 2 by now.



As I predicted earlier today.. Maybe I wasn't far off then..
1110. nigel20
Cancun
1111. LargoFl
I know everyone's eyes are on the hurricane BUT..there is bad weather NOW in the south east as well..heed your local warnings folks..stay safe...........................BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL BULLOCH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SOUTHERN CANDLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
EVANS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
TATTNALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 422 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...NEAR COLLINS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PREPARE NOW FOR THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE...
TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING...

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
COLLINS...COBBTOWN...MANASSAS...BELLVILLE...PULASK I...HAGAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE SHELTER AS THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.

REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES...LIMBS...AND POWER LINES DIRECTLY TO THE
CHARLESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 1-888-383-2024...WHEN IT IS
SAFE TO DO SO.
1112. scott39
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NOt good for the U.S

Not good for me! DOOM
1113. angiest
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NOt good for the U.S



As a reminder for what these long range model runs mean... for awhile last year GFS was showing what became Irene as being a Gulf storm, including dropping a probable cat 4 on Houston on at least one occasion. (Not directed at you, SFLWeatherman)

What GFS is telling us is that recurvature out to sea doesn't look likely in the next few weeks.
Possible hot tower:

Quoting TomTaylor:
The Mexican coastline along the western Gulf of Mexico is lucky for the Yucatan peninsula. If that landmass wasn't there, this thing would continue strengthening to a cat 4/5 under a truly ideal upper level environment and warm ocean while trade winds and dry air are also no longer problems.

IMG style="WIDTH: 500px; MAX-WIDTH: 501px"

And if Lake Okeechobee was a volcano instead, interior south Florida would be a really neat place.
Quoting scott39:
What does the terrain look like where Ernesto will make landfall?


Flat dense jungle
Anyone from the Yucatan on this blog right now??
1118. Kumo
Quoting Coastalgramps:


What is this nonsense?


It's a play on a popular internet meme, rage comics. "an idea, behavior or style that spreads from person to person within a culture." Memes are a fad that is popular with kids and teenagers these days.
1119. scott39
Ernestos 6 hour average movement is NW 0r 304 degrees.
Quoting angiest:


As a reminder for what these long range model runs mean... for awhile last year GFS was showing what became Irene as being a Gulf storm, including dropping a probable cat 4 on Houston on at least one occasion. (Not directed at you, SFLWeatherman)

What GFS is telling us is that recurvature out to sea doesn't look likely in the next few weeks.


It's not just the GFS, the pattern simply does not support a recurvature for the next few weeks at the least.
its mainly Karst topography over there
Quoting angiest:


As a reminder for what these long range model runs mean... for awhile last year GFS was showing what became Irene as being a Gulf storm, including dropping a probable cat 4 on Houston on at least one occasion. (Not directed at you, SFLWeatherman)

What GFS is telling us is that recurvature out to sea doesn't look likely in the next few weeks.


Excellent point. But also not good for the CONUS.

The remainder of August should be interesting. Ernesto is just the beginning.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Anyone from the Yucatan on this blog right now??


I have a condo in Mahahual and a brother in Belize. But im not there now.
1124. Patrap
One can almost smell the Warm salt air, and the Eyewall as well.



1125. Msdrown
Quoting tennisgirl08:
It is interesting to note that Ernesto will probably make landfall farther north than Karl and Hermine did....as posted in Dr. Master's blog.


Yes and I checked them out in the Archive. They did not lose that much strength and the farther up the penesula it is most of the cane will be in warm water all the time.
1126. LargoFl
Quoting nigel20:
Cancun
..wow what a picture..ty
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,the land is almost flat and that wont dissipate Ernesto. It may go up again in BOC.
True. But I'm saying if it weren't for landfall and a cross over the Yucatan coming up, we'd see this thing easily bomb out to a major hurricane. Shear is light, healthy divergence in all quadrants, SSTs, TCHP, it's all there. Only thing is the Yucatan peninsula. Hopefully people are prepared down there. A strengthening hurricane is nothing to mess with.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
We have Freshie Fridays at our school for the first quarter of the year... It's pretty much hazing, but we call it "orientation"...

I love being a senior!


At least your school didn't have a assembly after Pet A Freshman Day that petting someone is considered as a major breach of discipline as Physical Engagement in their Discipline Code. Resulting in 10 demerits, having between one and ten days of a Out of School Suspension, and you would be turn over to the police for assault.
Quoting Patrap:


After 50 you wunder where the car keys went.



I wonder where I left the car...

The other day I found out that I couldnt open my SUV at the mall parking.... After a while I found out that it was another one that looked similar...
Quoting gator23:

Its not that flat. I have been in that area. It is heavily forested away from the coast and their are cliffs near the coast especially near Tulum. In fact Tulum is built on a cliff. Hilly

IIRC, there isn't anything above 800 feet anywhere near Ernesto's landfall area. That is "flat" to me. If there was stuff that hit above 1500 feet, you could argue "hilly". But overall, its pretty darn flat to a hurricane.
1132. LargoFl
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

FLZ045-047-053-054-147-072045-
INDIAN RIVER-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-
404 PM EDT TUE AUG 7 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH OVER BREVARD COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY...EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 5 MILES
WEST OF TO PALM BAY AND DEER PARK. THE LINE WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH AND WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY THROUGH 5PM.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW
AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM
PASSES.

LAT...LON 2765 8111 2854 8108 2855 8056 2845 8052
2842 8057 2836 8060 2813 8057 2775 8038
2762 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 180DEG 0KT 2787 8042

$$
1133. Patrap
1134. scott39
NW 304 degress
Quoting nigel20:
Cancun


I want to see that in the N Leewards
Quoting nigel20:
Cancun


Nice picture, Nigel. The Yucatan Peninsula is a beautiful place. Hate that they are having to deal with yet another hurricane.
Quoting LesBonsTemps:
True dat
clear it out clear it out!

Looking very good. I'd say Ernesto is nearly a category 2 hurricane with max sustained winds of around 90mph.
1140. gator23
Quoting jeffs713:

IIRC, there isn't anything above 800 feet anywhere near Ernesto's landfall area. That is "flat" to me. If there was stuff that hit above 1500 feet, you could argue "hilly". But overall, its pretty darn flat to a hurricane.

Matter of perspective I suppose. I consider the area north of Orlando to be hilly its is just 130 feet
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
NOt good for the U.S



Hey that ain't cool, where did that storm come from? I don't like that one bit, take it away.

sheri
1142. nigel20
Quoting LargoFl:
..wow what a picture..ty

No problem!
1143. Patrap
19:45 UTC Rainbow Still

Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


At least your school didn't have a assembly after Pet A Freshman Day that petting someone is considered as a major breach of discipline as Physical Engagement in their Discipline Code. Resulting in 10 demerits, having between one and ten days of a Out of School Suspension, and you would be turn over to the police for assault.


oh my how things have changed.
Quoting Patrap:


My point about karst exactly thanks for proving me right
Quoting stoormfury:
most of the analyst are putting more emphasis on the wave still to the african coast wnich they believe will be gordon.on the other hand 92L which is showing signs of increasing organisation and which no doubt will be helene could pose a serious threat to the lesser antilles monday next week



I would be inclined to listen but no model support
1147. nigel20
Quoting MississippiWx:


Nice picture, Nigel. The Yucatan Peninsula is a beautiful place. Hate that they are having to deal with yet another hurricane.

Agreed.
Quoting gator23:

Matter of perspective I suppose. I consider the area north of Orlando to be hilly its is just 130 feet

Exactly. It is a matter of perspective. I'm going on the perspective of a storm system that has cloud bases in the 1000 foot-ish level. A 500-foot hill won't disrupt the storm much. A 2000-foot hill will do more to disrupt the storm. To either you or I, that is a good hike either way, and will likely disrupt our heart rate a bit.
That eye wall is getting mean.

1150. Sangria
Thanks for the answers about the west turn....guess it is just hard to see that high, that far away, creating such a drastic/abrubt degree of turn.....
Quoting MississippiWx:
That eye wall is getting mean.




i wish the recon was theee
That's when I noticed and eye on storms around 90 to 100mph.
1153. sar2401
Quoting Ameister12:
Looking very good. I'd say Ernesto is nearly a category 2 hurricane with max sustained winds of around 90mph.


And yet no apparent eye. Seems odd for a category 2 storm...if that's what it is.
Quoting 954FtLCane:


oh my how things have changed.


1155. yoboi
Quoting nigel20:
Cancun



they have plenty of live cams in cancun...
Don't all hurricanes have eyes?
92L 50% at 5 o'clock?
1158. BDAwx
Hurricane Ernesto kinda reminds me of Hurricane Alex from 2010.
Quoting Coastalgramps:
Don't all hurricanes have eyes?
An eye is indicative of a stronger storm, however not all hurricanes have them.
Quoting Coastalgramps:
Don't all hurricanes have eyes?


not necessarily. but in general they do

some tropical storms with winds of 65-70 mph have eyes. depends on the system... we even had an eye on a previous invest that was never even a tropical storm
1161. GetReal
Quoting gordydunnot:
92L 50% at 5 o'clock?






dont you mean 8pm
ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.
Quoting TomTaylor:
True. But I'm saying if it weren't for landfall and a cross over the Yucatan coming up, we'd see this thing easily bomb out to a major hurricane. Shear is light, healthy divergence in all quadrants, SSTs, TCHP, it's all there. Only thing is the Yucatan peninsula. Hopefully people are prepared down there. A strengthening hurricane is nothing to mess with.

One thing, the analogues being used - Karl, Hilda, Hermine - made landfall substantially SW of where Ernesto is supposed to... different terrain.

Is the LBAR holding out from earlier and I didn't notice it or is this a new track for it?
Hurricane Ernesto Is going to make landfall sometime after 9Pm Est near punta Allen , mexico just south of tulum
Cozumel can handle a storm like Ernesto

While I haven't been following the track and itensity of Ernesto as closely as many of you folks have, I noticed that there's been some chatter about how close this storm might get to Cozumel. I've been to Cozumel many times and been there once when a TS approached (and missed).

If Ernesto gets close to Cozumel, it would be approaching from the Southeast. This is the most sparsely populated area on the island, with very few structures up on the bluffs. These structures have withstood many severe storms. The majority of the resorts and commercial areas are on the Northwest side of the island across from Cancun.

Secondly, I was very impressed with how the local officials began preparations in advance of a tropical system. I've also had friends who were there when Wilma struck Cozumel. The government's response was immediate, effective and efficient.

For my friends who live there, I hope Ernesto does not visit you tonight.
HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH
DISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX. GIVEN
THE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. RESTRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN
MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...
THAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 18.8N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 19.4N 88.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 19.7N 90.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1800Z 19.8N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/1800Z 19.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
1168. scott39
I still say around 20N at landfall just S of Cozumel.
Yeah, Taz a senior moment I suppose.
Quoting Coastalgramps:
Don't all hurricanes have eyes?


no
normally cat 1 and 2 can form with no cleared out visible eye
its there you just can't see it
most time a cleared out eye is seen on cat 3,4,5 storms
1171. Patrap
20:25 UTC Viz

Quoting BDAwx:
Hurricane Ernesto kinda reminds me of Hurricane Alex from 2010.



Alex dumped a whole bunch of rain in the Houston area. We could use that again!
"Anyone from the Yucatan on this blog right now??"

Yep. Playa del Carmen. Some steady rain, right now.
Are there people in here thinking that Ernesto will miss the Yucatan??
img src="BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.">
1176. GetReal
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Are there people in here thinking that Ernesto will miss the Yucatan??


I hope so
Quoting PdCMexico:
"Anyone from the Yucatan on this blog right now??"

Yep. Playa del Carmen. Some steady rain, right now.


Please keep us updated as conditions change. Stay safe!
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Are there people in here thinking that Ernesto will miss the Yucatan??

I think it would almost have to head on a due North course for that to happen
Quoting BDAwx:
Hurricane Ernesto kinda reminds me of Hurricane Alex from 2010.
Same here. Beautiful large symmetrical cyclone.

Landfall should be occurring tonight.

Eye could pop out any minute now:

Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Are there people in here thinking that Ernesto will miss the Yucatan??


At this point, that's pretty much impossible, unless a really magical sharp trough pulls him straight up and to the east. But there is still quite a possibility he could keep going northwestward enough that he'll only be over land for a very short time. Which could be extremely dangerous.
Quoting weatherh98:


not necessarily. but in general they do

some tropical storms with winds of 65-70 mph have eyes. depends on the system... we even had an eye on a previous invest that was never even a tropical storm


Yup, I remember that. 92L near the Azores.



1184. GetReal
1185. angiest
Quoting weatherh98:


we hide the blog from our friends... if we didnt we prolly wouldnt have friends


You don't know how good you have it. Back when I was in Jr High and HS, I had to wait for the once hourly Tropical Update on TWC as my sole source of tropical weather news. And before that, I had nothing but listening to advisories on NOAA Weather Radio.

Now get off of my lawn!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yup, I remember that. 92L near the Azores.



Do you think they will upgrade it in the post-season analysis?
be back around 6
Quoting OldLeatherneck:
Cozumel can handle a storm like Ernesto

While I haven't been following the track and itensity of Ernesto as closely as many of you folks have, I noticed that there's been some chatter about how close this storm might get to Cozumel. I've been to Cozumel many times and been there once when a TS approached (and missed).

If Ernesto gets close to Cozumel, it would be approaching from the Southeast. This is the most sparsely populated area on the island, with very few structures up on the bluffs. These structures have withstood many severe storms. The majority of the resorts and commercial areas are on the Northwest side of the island across from Cancun.

Secondly, I was very impressed with how the local officials began preparations in advance of a tropical system. I've also had friends who were there when Wilma struck Cozumel. The government's response was immediate, effective and efficient.

For my friends who live there, I hope Ernesto does not visit you tonight.


Nice to hear. They are certainly seasoned in dealing with landfalling tropical cyclones, that's for sure.
Quoting angiest:


You don't know how good you have it. Back when I was in Jr High and HS, I had to wait for the once hourly Tropical Update on TWC as my sole source of tropical weather news. And before that, I had nothing but listening to advisories on NOAA Weather Radio.

Now get off of my lawn!

yeah, but Angiest, like my Dad said, those weather girls sure make the bad news seem good! He lived for the tropical update at :10 before the hour! lol
Quoting angiest:


You don't know how good you have it. Back when I was in Jr High and HS, I had to wait for the once hourly Tropical Update on TWC as my sole source of tropical weather news. And before that, I had nothing but listening to advisories on NOAA Weather Radio.

Now get off of my lawn!

Was that before or after you had to walk 10 miles uphill (both ways) to get to school?
recon better hurry up
1192. angiest
Quoting jeffs713:

Was that before or after you had to walk 10 miles uphill (both ways) to get to school?


Let me tell you about the time I killed a bear with a loose leaf binder...
Quoting scott39:
Ernestos 6 hour average movement is NW 0r 304 degrees.


As it has been for the last 32 hours.
Quoting angiest:


Let me tell you about the time I killed a bear with a loose leaf binder...


What is a loose leaf binder?
We know the drill down here. The comments section of this blog is probably one of the most popular websites in this area, come hurricane season. :)
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Do you think they will upgrade it in the post-season analysis?


I think it is very possible, yes. Doesn't mean it'll happen though.
1197. Patrap
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I think it is very possible, yes. Doesn't mean it'll happen though.

It's not getting upgraded. Didn't sustain convection long enough.
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA (EP072012)
2:00 PM PDT August 7 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: "Gilma" Continues To Strengthen..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Gilma (1001 hPa) located at 15.1N 113.9W or 520 NM south southwest of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.4N 117.1W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.2N 119.8W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 17.5N 121.0W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
img src="BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES. DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.">
This storm is so much like 2010's Alex, it's not even funny. Every time I see a new sat image, I see more similarities.
the NHC is taking they're time with the 5pm advisory I'm just gonna guess its 85mph
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1204. angiest
Quoting hurricanehanna:

yeah, but Angiest, like my Dad said, those weather girls sure make the bad news seem good! He lived for the tropical update at :10 before the hour! lol


I actually don't recall many women delivering the tropical update back then. I saw Jim Cantore a lot though, and Mark Mancuso, and several others I can't remember.
Notebooks that had metal rings so you could put as many blank sheets of paper as you wanted too. I maybe of topic though.
92-L is out there , but the next one that will
come off Africa already has a spin going for it...
Sending prayers for those in Ernies Path...
1207. islagal
yes, this year the quintana roo government has finally put out posters for what to do for hurricane season and what the warning system means in both spanish and english. We were mandated to post them in our restaurants...however, most are closed today and tomorrow because of the rain.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
the NHC is taking they're time with the 5pm advisory I'm just gonna guess its 85mph
Discussion is already posted. It's still 80mph.


geeee I wonder if this is wnw or even due west? Radar imagery totally takes NW movement out of the current picture.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
the NHC is taking they're time with the 5pm advisory I'm just gonna guess its 85mph

Maybe 90...but they may be conservative because of lack of HH data right now.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Are there people in here thinking that Ernesto will miss the Yucatan??


Yes. If it doesn't all bets are off.
Quoting angiest:


You don't know how good you have it. Back when I was in Jr High and HS, I had to wait for the once hourly Tropical Update on TWC as my sole source of tropical weather news. And before that, I had nothing but listening to advisories on NOAA Weather Radio.

Now get off of my lawn!


I'm feeling old! Don't remember TWC back when... But then, I remember the coming of the color TV, and everyone couldn't wait until they had one.
Curiosity's Landscape Portrait in Context

This picture of the Martian landing site of NASA's Curiosity rover puts a color view obtained by the rover in the context of a computer simulation derived from images acquired from orbiting spacecraft. The view looks north, showing a distant ridge that is the north wall and rim of Gale Crater.


Quoting all4hurricanes:
the NHC is taking they're time with the 5pm advisory I'm just gonna guess its 85mph
still 80mph and still moving wnw
1216. sar2401
Quoting angiest:


You don't know how good you have it. Back when I was in Jr High and HS, I had to wait for the once hourly Tropical Update on TWC as my sole source of tropical weather news. And before that, I had nothing but listening to advisories on NOAA Weather Radio.

Now get off of my lawn!


Ha! Try 1962. Try listening to morse code on a Hallicrafters SX-91 receiver tied to a 102 foot long wire antenna strung from trees all over the backyard. I'd listen to updates from ships at sea and then listen to Weather Bureau (no NHC back then) updates once an hour based on...the same ships at sea reports I'd already listened to. :) It was a like a blind man trying to find the doorknob in the dark. Really, we have things so good now that it's the information overload that allows all to have a different opinion on the path and intensity of a hurricane. Back then, we weren't even sure it was a hurricane before about 12 hours prior to landfall.
looks like ernesto should make landfall tonight, hope everyone along yucatan r ready, stay safe!!
When is the 90 degree left turn that is forecasted,supposed to take place?
TWC first aired in 1982, the year my first child was born and I moved to Germany. Up until then you listened to the five o'clock news for the five minute weather report...
The monster wave that will become either Gordon or Helene (depends on 92L)...

Outflow from Ernesto with a TW giving us some thunderstorms....



1222. Patrap
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Cloudsat of the Arctic storm..

1224. Patrap
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog
Ernesto reaches hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan
Posted by: Angela Fritz, 3:55 PM CDT on August 07, 2012
Recon has departed.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Outflow from Ernesto with a TW giving us some thunderstorms....



tickeling.the.tw..watching.it.closely.once.ernest o.moves.on.shore
1227. hydrus
1228. hydrus
Another 6 to 12 hours over water, this may have been a major hurricane..I do not want to think what would of happened if it was a couple days and headed north.
1229. Patrap
Evening all. I'm sorry I missed the "excitement", but ended up at the doctor's today because of shoulder pain. It's still hurting like crazy, but I figure I can read even if I can't type much... lol

Some decent accuracy came from the 3 day track and intensity forecast from Sunday morning.