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Ernesto ashore in Cuba; Florida and the Carolinas next

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2006

The hurricane season of 2006 has claimed its first victim, a woman washed away by Ernesto's storm surge in Haiti yesterday. However, it appears that we have not had a repeat of the massive flooding disaster of 2004, when Hurricane Jeanne brushed Haiti, killing 3000. Ernesto is still pounding Haiti and the Dominican Republic with relentless heavy rains as it moves ashore into Cuba this morning. Rainfall amounts of 8 inches have been reported in Barahona, Dominican Republic, and amounts as high as 20 inches may have fallen in Haiti. Cuba is receiving its own torrential rains, but is being spared a significant storm surge or high winds. Ernesto is barely a tropical storm, and I expect it will be a tropical depression Tuesday morning when it pops off the coast of Cuba into the Florida Straits. Given the great success of Hispaniola and Cuba at weakening the storm, the threat to Florida is now much reduced. Let's analyze the possibilities.


Figure 1. Surface wind analysis at 9:30pm EDT last night shows Ernesto had maximum winds of only 40 knots (45 mph) in a small circle (lightest blue color) between Cuba and Haiti.

Ernesto and Florida
The NOAA jet flew last night, and last night's 00Z (8pm EDT) set of model runs have come into much better agreement on a track into South Florida Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Two model runs are available from the latest 6Z (2am EDT) model cycle, and continue the trend of pushing the forecast tracks to the east. The GFS and GFDL models have virtually identical tracks for their 72-hour forecasts, with Ernesto as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds and a pressure of 983 mb when it hits Key Largo Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning. This more easterly track is believable given Ernesto's recent northwesterly track.

Wind shear remains low and is forecast to remain low for the duration of Ernesto's life, so the key factor controlling his intensity will be interaction with land. To get an idea of how quickly Ernesto might reintensify once emerging into the Florida Straits, it is helpful to search the historical record. I found two storms similar to Ernesto that crossed the tip of Haiti, hit Cuba as hurricanes, then emerged into the Florida Straits. Hurricane Inez of 1966 hit Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, then weakened to a tropical storm when she emerged into the Florida Straits. It took three days before she was able to re-intensify into a Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf. The August 1894 Category 2 hurricane that hit Cuba took only one day to re-intensify from a tropical storm into a Category 2 hurricane once it emerged into the Florida Straits. This storm hit Ft. Myers as a Category 2 storm. Dissipation of Erensto is also possible, as happened to a 1916 tropical storm that hit Cuba on a similar track and died as it emerged into the Florida Straits. A 1928 tropical storm following a similar path never regained hurricane strength, despite spending two full days over the Gulf after encountering Cuba. So, history is against Ernesto becoming anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane upon landfall in South Florida, and I believe landfall as a tropical storm is more likely. If Ernesto does take a more westerly track up the west coast of Florida towards Sarasota, landfall as a Category 1 hurricane could occur.

Ernesto is a more significant threat to the Carolinas
While much of the focus of attention has deservedly been on Ernesto's impact on Florida, I believe the best chance of Ernesto hitting the U.S. as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane will come in the Carolinas. The GFDL model has Ernesto as a borderline Category 1 or 2 hurricane with a pressure of 975 mb Thursday night upon landfall in South Carolina. The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models predict that Ernesto will stall off the Carolina coast, as the trough of low pressure drawing it northeastwards accelerates away. High pressure will then build in, forcing Ernesto back to the west towards the Carolina coast. If this happens, Ernesto will have plenty of time over the warm Gulf Stream, and could easily reach Category 2 or 3 strength before making landfall in the Carolinas. The NOGAPS model depicts a similar scenario, but predicts Ernest will stall further north, then move west, threatening the Mid-Atlantic states.

Next update
I'll have an update late this afternoon when the 12Z (8am EDT) model runs are in. I will also post an explanation of which models to trust, and where to get plots of the output from the various models. The Hurricane Hunters have gone home; they will not be flying the storm while it is over Cuba, so there will be nothing new to report from them.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I thought this was a weather blog....football can be discussed in your personal blogs......
Rand, don't try to scare me.....If it does make an unlikely move toward Houston, you have to come to my house and ride it out with me.

You can sleep with the St. Bernard. She'll like you.
"if you look at wv, you can see the dryline of that front....it extends roughly from KC down to lubbock TX...and hasn't really made any move east in quite awhile."

look again. during the time of the loop, the dryline has moved from central kansas to the ks/mo border.
Still desparate
ihave27windows...I thought you might be lurking! I did that only for your benefit. Ya gotta have a sense of humor before a storm! Sorry if I offended anyone and humor is unspammable content!
1007. rxse7en
I'm not so sure about a W movement. Looking at the WV loop, it appears to be stationary and the westward movement is just convection/outflow being blown off by the ULL. Can someone concur?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
1009. dewfree
Tropical systems have a way of making the models look silly .It is a waiting game at present .If DR. Masters is Correct it would have been better if the storm track towards Florida.Having alot of time over the warm Gulf stream isnt a good thing .
1010. GulfGuy
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:43 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
Lets consult the magic 8 ball on this:

Not enough information
Not enough information
Not enough information


Wow, this one has even short-circuited the majic 8-ball! Is this an example of Chaos Theory?
WHO ELSE SEES A WESTERLY TRACK REFORMING? HANG ON .... THIS THING MAY NOT BE OVER JUST YET.
Posted By: CounterClockWise at 7:47 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
I thought this was a weather blog....football can be discussed in your personal blogs......

Fortunately for me by talking about the UM-FSU game that is coming up on Monday,... I am talking about Hurricanes!!!....

PS. I have to wait 1 hr. to get gas in Lake Worth, fl... anyone know a quick gas station around here.
1013. ricderr
yes 27.....do us a favor.....start worrying over your windows and would they survive a storm...that generates heat which fires up the windows magnetic draw and will pull the storm westward...which so many want anyways....which as i..somone in it's projected path..you want it west....saddle up dem ponies and move em out...rawhide!!
The 5pm update is going to be interesting...
There was mention of a "new forcast track"
on fox news..

We shall see...
Jen-x
1015. Selu
Gulf Guy..
That--or Occam's Razor. :-D
well, destin, that's the real question, how far south will the trough dig. the trough IS on the move, but it may not dig as far south as some say.
CC you are correct......But I'm more concerned Ernie right now. No offense.
Anyone knowledgeable...can I get your best guesses as to position of COC? I'm sitting here with my atlas, looking at the loop...give me a clue!
dobson ok im not going to argue...well i wonder why it isnt flying over now...lol yes dobson they going to let spy planes fly over cuba ....ok enough of this....
and will pull the storm westward...which so many want anyways....which as i..somone in it's projected path..you want it west....saddle up dem ponies and move em out...rawhide!!


Shame on you ric! That's funny.
I think its still on the same track, just growing and in a formative cycle. Its wraping convection around the center in the nw quad. Then it will start in the sw and youll see a larger storm, all imho. NW movement still imho.
I read in here a lot but hardly ever post. Just a couple of observations: From the beginning of this storm no one has seemed to have a handle on it including the NHC. There discussions have seemed vague and contradictory. The post on here have been good at times but sometimes far out. Second observation and/or question, from looking at satellite links, everything north of the storm seems to be moving fairly rapidly to the west, what is going to keep the storm from getting caught up in this and moving west?
[IMG]http://i33.photobucket.com/albums/d75/72TributeBike/060831_Ernesto.jpg[/IMG]

Could this be Ernesto in 72 hours?
cat1cane...Weather channel says the COC is just west of all those cloud things. Right on the north coast of Cuba.
the center is not over water people. just because your little IR sat pic shows reds over water doenst mean thats where the center is.

its well inland on cuba, gonna be after 8pm until it exits cuba fully and i dont know if itll be alive by then
CycloneOz, [IMG] code does not work here; you have to use HTML for websites.
its coming off that hook on the eastern northern end, but the angle is similar to movement of the storm, so it looks like it will take a few more hours to be totally off .
ALl imho as an amature
Could this be Ernesto in 72 hours?

Could this be Ernesto in 72 hours?
i saw the ull forming last night
For Those who missed my discussion Earlier:

Weather456s Tropical Weather Discussion for The North Atlantic Ocean.............
Monday, August 28, 2006..........


An upper level high continues to be station over the continental United Sates near Mississippi, with a broad Upper Level Ridge at its eastern periphery, along the SE United states and into the Gulf of Mexico.

Behind the Upper level high is an Upper Level trough coming down over Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska Border. This trough was responsible for some severe weather over the Western United States last week.

An Upper level Trough is moving west over Eastern Canada.

The Upper level low that was racing with Ernesto south of Cuba, late last week has moved west into the Yucatan Peninsula. The Low is enhancing moisture over the peninsula and into the Gulf. The rest of the Gulf is fair, with a surface High located near Florida.

Another upper level low is centered North of the Central Bahamas. Along with Tropical Storm Ernesto, it is helping top generate some showers over the Bahamas Islands.

A Central Atlantic Upper Level Low attached to a well define Upper Level trough in the North Atlantic.

A tropical wave moving west near 18N in the Central Atlantic, has a 1011mbar low and a closed circulation. The wave is void of all convection because its embedded in an area of thinning African Saharan Dust. Quiksat pass revealed wind less than 5knots. If this low can gather convection and increased winds, it will be automatically become Tropical Depression Six.

Another Tropical Wave in the far East Atlantic is along the ITCZ.

An Upper level high is centered over Morocco in Africa.

An Surface High Located in The North Atlantic east of England.

Tropical storm Ernesto is located 20.7N/76.1W, over Southern Cuba, moving NW at 10mph with winds of 40mph and a MCP of 1007mbars as of 2PMEDT.

Ernesto will continue to move NW over Cuba, and might reemerge either in the Florida Straits or South of the Bahamas.

Flooding rains of up to 80mm/3hrs are expected over Cuba today.

Surface Observations
Sea Surface Temperatures are above 80-85 degrees in the area.

Waves are up 20 feet on the Northern and Eastern side of the south tip of Cuba and Southern Bahamas Islands.

Buoys/Ships
None Yet

Land-Based Stations at 1PMAST
GUANTANAMO, Cuba (MUGM)
Pressure:1011.9mbars
Winds: SSW at 3m/s

By Weather456....13:47UTC


Figure 1: Tropical Storm Ernesto
Thank you, Randrewl. My best guess was just N or NW of Gibara, but I like to have other input.
If this storm does hit Miami, that is a few less days of practice for the football team... oh well, Go Noles! =0)

In regards to Ernesto, I can clearly see where the center of circulation is on visible imagery. It's NOT a WAVE. Clearly west winds remain and the center is there.... and yes, I do see it riding the coastline at this time, moving more west and really not much north.
See here for how to post an image (also explains a lot of other stuff).
1036. KRL
Looking at the water vapor imagery, I don't see how Ernie is going east anytime soon. I think the next track is going west again like originally forecast. You can see the channel of least resistance clearly and its not eastbound.
1037. ricderr
brdennis...good observation..and it's why i think so many see that westward track....however...whatch what happens when a front moves into florida from the north....all the storms blow west to east..and the front keeps pushing southward...same thing here
Is the COC exposed right now?
It seems to be...
Jen-x
1041. rxse7en
StormW,

That's a little better. Ernie's a bit of a mess right now, but it does seem to be firing up some impressive convection in the NW quadrant.

B

1042. will40
ok i got a model oil went down 2 dollars a barrel today
Will Ernesto Hit Florida??
Virtual Magic 8 Ball
courtesy of degraeve.com

well do the math if its wnw paralleling the cuban coast common sense tells you its going to come out near 80 degrees and se of the keys...then will the high be strong enough to keep it on a westward or wnw path....i think it will the saving grace trough has yet to move it is stalled ...this could be a major player what forming off the yucatan right now...StormTop
nationalcatastrophe...Right now it is a Tropical Depression. Didn't say anything about a cat.1. At this point I have no idea what E. will become....if anything.
couldn't leave that one hanging


LOL!
Wow Mattrix -- very cool.
stormtop it aint going wnw
1056. fla1963
Posted By: leftyy420 at 8:07 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
stormtop it aint going wnw


You know something we don't ?
lefty!!! woo hoo
I don't usually join in to the childish banter on this site, but I am looking for other opinions on the dry air pushing down in front of Ernesto. If this begins to get pulled in, shouldn't the storm fall apart? See water vapor loops.
1061. Ineluki
With his what exposed?

Okay, after the past two and a half days wondering where this thing is going to go, I needed that laugh.
tomato, you are right about the dry air. it won't necessarily make the storm fall apart, but it will slow down it's re-development over the water.
Hot Women/Men does not equal tropical weather. Might I suggest, chat.

Please keep the blog on topic.
i didnt say that its going west lefty...very slowly ..twc confirmed that movement they said the storm would be over cuba much longer and may not get to the us....it may just die there...StormTop
This is a clear shift "slightly west" from the 12Z to 18Z models.

Notice on the 1st link, alot of the forecasts have it missing Florida and the NHC was in the middle.

Link

Now notice in the 2nd link the models... the NHC is now on the right of the model projections, with most having shifted west. Now this isn't an extreme shift but it shows that the West Coast of Florida should continue to pay close attention to the progress of this system.

Link
Ernesto not looking very good on satellite... but look for re-strengthening as it heads back over water... SST's are pretty good, and that will aid in development

EastCoastWx.net Forums
well the latest nhc advisory said nw at 10mph. the forcast is for it to continue to the nw and it was explained in the disscussion

Its building quickly as it approaches the north shore of Cuba. The water is hot there. It doesnt seemed to have varied from its forecast track at all. Slightly east perhaps. Even if the system west is stalled there is another pushing behind it.
I live down Coconut Grove and work in East Kendall by the Dadeland Mall. The Publix next door was insane at lunch time, I just gave up. The gas lines coming into work this AM weren't much better.

The word from the UM athletic department is that next Monday's UM-FSU game is a "go" barring any "bad" damage to the Orange Bowl. Naturally that could change but that is the info I just received.
1072. fla1963
Posted By: CaptainTomato at 8:08 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
I don't usually join in to the childish banter on this site, but I am looking for other opinions on the dry air pushing down in front of Ernesto. If this begins to get pulled in, shouldn't the storm fall apart? See water vapor loops.


Hey Cap, if it's childish why are you looking for answers.
hey that magic eightball only gives negative answers....lol
1075. mattrix
Here is another with model overlays Link
lol Forsman
That little ULL appears to be outracing what's left of the circulation , which is right on the coast . A bit of convection firing up nw , but I'm not sure if that's in response to the ULL's proximity..
The coc seems to be exited the coast of Cuba right on the forecast track. I expect within the next couple of hours convection will begin to increase and we will see intensification until landfall in South Florida.
well lets wait for the 5pm advisory. i take their forcast more than i do twc. sorry
Steve Lyons said the ULL to the northwest will move out of the way
the links don't work so go here and check it out:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/%7Evigh/guidance/

Look under Atlantic Basin, click early guidance, frame 2 for the 12Z and frame 1 for the 18Z models.
vortextrance is are TS this about off the cost
CaptainTomato I think its going to be OK in the straits its building rapidly on the North slope side of Cuba. The Water is very warm just off shore there.
27- Can you go flirt somewhere else? You are cluttering things up and its already cluttered enough already
well lefty the NHC will say the same thing until the recon goes out there and then you will see the models shifting westward about 5am tuesday morning......you will see no changes at 5pm because whats left of ernesto wont be coming off the coast until after 10pm....StormTop
wow
hey guys look at the convection on this puppy
vortex: Re Mattrix link, it this a new track?
I don't think its a TS anymore Taz
Actually this is the perfect path for intensification, no more land to S.FLA only andros island and hot water this storm is gonna ramp up real soon.
Note...Ernesto is bound to be a Cat2 0r 3 on the West coast of FL, the models and tracks are there...
1093. ricderr
i didnt say that its going west lefty.......ummm stormy...help me out...if it doesn't go west..how does it miss florida..and you've said repeatedly today that it won't hit florida
So...this could stall and head west into the carolinas?
When looking at the latest sat loop, it appears the COC is still on shore in Cuba, but it appears that it is not? Can anyone determine exactky where the COC is?

Drew
stormtop, what's your guess on intensity in the next day/ day and a half...

thanks
i think theres a chance it could miss florida all togetehr or just brish the east coast of it. i would not be suprised iof that happened. we will see
1102. Melagoo
Stick a fork in Ernie he's done!
=X

Cat what where???
onestop I hope your wrong.. I guess at this
point nothing is etched in stone.. (as usual) see *Wilma of last year..

Ernesto please do not find the GOM...
Jen-x
Posted By: Chicklit at 8:19 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
vortex: Re Mattrix link, it this a new track?


Its the latest updated track from the NHC. Check the box marked trop fcst pts on any of the sat pics and it shows the latest track. Looks to be on the money to me.
Link
Gulf:

You didn't miss much. Still not clear on the location of the COC, admin a little disgusted with discussion regarding hot men/women, someone mad about flirting, storm still over cuba but SOMEONE DID discover another system coming off of Africa - I wonder if they feel like those NASA guys when they find a new planet or downgrade a planet to a mini-planet.
do we have a new track now and how far is it fron the open water?
1109. mattrix
I don't make predictions
Posted By: leftyy420 at 8:22 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
i think theres a chance it could miss florida all togetehr or just brish the east coast of it. i would not be suprised iof that happened. we will see


At this point I think that's more likely than the west coast of FL scenario.
1111. fla1963
Posted By: DrewsNewsRoom at 8:18 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
When looking at the latest sat loop, it appears the COC is still on shore in Cuba, but it appears that it is not? Can anyone determine exactky where the COC is?

Drew

YES -- His name is GOD!
Alright, DR Steve Lyons mentioned the ULL. It looks like the ULL is enhancing the western flank convection of Ernesto but also shearing a bit.
1114. amd
It looks like the storm is paralleling the coast right now, and it needs to get off-shore fairly soon, or else it will probably weaken into a remnant low in short order. Also, if the storm was truly moving nw, it would have emerged from the coast of Cuba a couple of years ago.
Watch system(s) coming off Africa...will be a busy couple weeks...
no i feel like i am waving and screaming my head off in a sealed glass jar-personaly i think the low has some potential it all depends on growth and movement but interests like me in teh leeward islands need to pay attention to it this may be our next big player
naples that ALL DEPENDS IF IT DOESNT DIE OVER CUBA BEFORE IT MAKES THE STRAIS....i would say if it doesnt die it wuill be very slow to gain back troical storm strength...this has been shredded by the mountains and we are talking at least another 9 hours over land ....StormTop
Is there any study on how 88 degree water could stregthen a storm ie number of hours it takes to be a hurricane, drop in pressure etc?
1122. scla08
On this satellite loop Link I clearly see the center moving west while still over Cuba!
1123. amd
*years = hours

my bad on my previous post. :)
Well the boat is pulled and the shutters are up. Hope it is all for not and this storm just leaves us some rain.

Florida Keys FishingLink
Stormchaser: woo hooo...that's GREAT NEWS. I hope you are right. Another one bites the dust....that's all I want to know.

Excellent Vortex. Thanks again.
I think the coc is pretty much where the flash map puts it exactly.
1128. Patrap
..can see Ernesto cruising along the N Coast of Cuba with a good inflow and steady convection firing along with the reforming..CoC.The cyclone still has good outflow with the Anti-cyclone above him. Its allowing Ernesto ..to maybe buld a stable core as he exits the Cuban shore near the dogleg left coast.Once the HH can re-investigate ..We may still be faced with a strenghting Tropical storm..as he emerges into the Warmer ssts...
stormtop it does not have another 9 hrs over land. infact its alomst about to emerge off the northern coast. and it appear a new coc might be trying to form to the nw as well. its def dissaorginsed and trying to tighten up. last couple hours the low level circulation jas sdtarted to be come more defined again in the low level clouds to the south and north of the last advisory location of the center. as well as some increas in outflow as well has convection i believe a cenetr reorginsation has been taking place all day. more to the north. this has hapened evry time it has beeen attack, shear than haiti. stay tuned stormtop.
This is looking more and more like another Chris. The COC heading west and the convection knocked off to the east! See what I am saying on the Wv loop! That ULL is whacking the toatl crap out of Ernie. Kinda looks like that is it for Florida. Watch!
1131. nattat
hi everyone. i am SO confused about what is going on with this storm! i live in fort myers and my family and a lot friends live in the fort lauderdale miami area...so if anyone can help me determine if A) i should be leaving fort myers and go to fort lauderdal B) family come to fort myers from fort lauderdale C) this thing isnt even gonna be that big of a problem and everyone should stay put....any advice?
Yes, mrpuertorico, I agree w/ you. I have been watching and think you need to keep eye out up there (i am in Aruba). Models I have looked at have that thing building in a big way.
you want a study on hopw hot water effects a hurricane..take a look at hurricane katrina after it left the coast of florida
1136. Patrap
..Swoooh Ahhhh.Swooosh Aaahhhh,,"Stormchaser 77..I find your lack of faith..Disturbing..."
Just heard on Fox the The Cuban Goverment allows recon planes to overfly Cuba when a hurricane is near. Also the the Cuban Forcasters and the forcasters in the us talk two times a day.....interesting isnt it
1139. WiseGuy
Check this LINK out !!!
Shear Monster is Back in Black !!!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

Looks like the Shear Monster might rear its pretty head again!!! I smell a 10kt and a 20kt contour just upstream of the apparent direction of Ernie. If it heads directly to the northern Keys or SE FLA, I expect no more than a Cat 1, but more likely, a strong Trop Storm. It will need much more fetch than 24 hours to develop into something more substantial. Any comments?

nattat
Pay close attention to the NHC and your area emerg management. Everything on here is hypothetical. Wrong place for advice
Ernesto has a lot of potential imho to become organized into a classic hurricane. When the sw flank fills in, maybe in 6 hrs. imho, it will start taking a more balanced form. All imho. I see the beginning of the wrap around cycle starting in the NW quad. What's to stop it? I dont see anything. Im not talking a Cat 5 but I wouldnt rule out a 3
1142. Patrap
..figured the superensemble would bear left with the G-plane & P-3 data sets...
coc is clearly not heading west. hard to pin down exact location as there are a few swirls moving around but the main circulation has been moving nw
NHC no longer predicting a hurricane on the 5 PM... YES!
COC is separated from convection in a big way. Watch and see. Appears to be another Chris situation.
i will lefty i still say at least another 8 hours before the recon can get there....when do you think the recon will be there it sounds like you are talking 2 hours....lefty i would be shocked if this is not a weak tropical depression....you sate tuned we will see ...StormTop
Doesn't look look like E has moved in the past hours!!
Looks like a de-coupling to me right now. Let's see.
randrewl thats incorrect, convection is firing up to its west and north
1153. Patrap
..sees the overall motion around 300..at 8mph..last hr
hey! ernesto seems to be trying hard to get JA

whatcha thinki?!?
another question -


Can the hurricane planes fly over Cuban airspace? Seems to me that they aren't going to get a really good dataset unless they can flyover Cuba, but if Raul Castro is going to throw a fit we might not know what's going on with this thing for a good 24 hours or so.
right now we can't do a thing in terms of figuring where or how strong this thing will be..so instead of stressing..need to chill..easier said than done..but i'm clicking out til later so i don't think about it
Posted By: CycloneOz at 7:38 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
Link

This loop that now includes the 19:30Z image (to me) clearly shows the COC is now well west and moving off of Cuba and back into the Caribbean Sea. Look for yourselves and remember where the last reported COCs have been. Extrapolate the 19:30Z image from those last positions.

Ernesto is bailing back to the west. Standby...it is going to be a long night.
Gulf, your not alone with that observation
Keep in my mind as well, historically the NHC is much more accurate with the track this close to landfall. The models have been working with the the data from the more reliable noaa jet with their two runs today. The NHC was also in the center until it made landfall in Cuba this morning so they probabally got a better handle on this system now.
STORMTOP nw at 13mph it sped up not stalled

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
1160. Patrap
the Goes-12 ramsdis loop is impressive last hr too
5 pm Advisory

Still tropical storm.

21.3 N
76.9 W

Almost of the coast.
The storm is an equilibrium entity. It exists to mix out heat and cold, and absent other influencing factors it will gravitate to the warmest waters. If the trough, and dry air and shear are strong enough, the storm will be steered or destroyed. Otherwise it will enter the Gulf of Mexico and mix out the superheated water there.

The more heated the waters become, the stronger the storms become, which brings another variable, the reduced ability of other atmospheric factors to influence these storms.

Conclusion: if the storm becomes large and intense over the waters of the straits it is more likey to defy the steering influences which appear may take it north and east. It will instead head for the hotter water in the Gulf of Mexico.
ernesto picked up speed, and they said it is almost off the coast.
Gulfscot, is that the main circ?

If so, what does that mean upstream?
Still a TS at the 5 pm advisory. They expect it to strengthen as it clears the coast of cuba.
Its firing new convection over around the center, no doubt about it.
1168. fla1963
nolesjeff Where's the link?
And you know what?

The pressure has stayed the same since 2 p.m. That means Ernesto is not losing strength anymore, he's beginning to get steady, which leads to strengthening
500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS..
ull will rule again saw it last night...
highndry Fox news just stated that the Cuban goverment does allow recon flights over their airspace...seems to be alot of false info on this bog..oh well this is the internet
its not headed for the straights its headed for the bahhamas. if it hits florid it will be the east coast and will likley stay out the straights
1175. PBG00
the 5 update has the SAME track..but only as a ts...
"This system" is without question now heading directly back into the Carribean sea, south and west.

If you can't see it...keep trying...the sat images in IR and VIS are showing it.
1177. MahFL
Part of the broad center is over water, that's why there is new convection to the NW, can only do that with warm water fuel in the center.
im not sure about much here.

but the COC appeared for a little while..then fired Thunderstorms that moved to the southwest..while the COC..keeps moving NW towards the ocean.

the COC probably drew moisture in..then it fired over land and moved SW...and some people think the Center is moving southwest...I dont know where that comes from.
IS it still possible for this the head up the East Coast unil the Outer Banks, then come onshore??
1180. PBG00
Our weather here said the h hunters have been flying in and out all day
1181. Patrap
..HH are not..repeat not allowed into Cuban air space..except for Vector into Gitmo for Emergencies..Period.
Half the center is already of the water. And its ALREADY firing up convection. Just wait till the whole thing makes it.
well the thing is weak systems tend to not weaken as quicjly as a string system will from a cane down toa ts. so a ts as long as it can maintain convection and some sort of a circulation will fair better and likley maintain its pressure. winds will slacken due to land firction and after awhile it will just slowly wind down. now that ernesto is in my opinion 203 hrs from water again and the conditoion of the circualtion on visisble sat shows he is faring preety good and already feeling those warm waters. tonight could be quite interesting
ST... I think you've done a Fantastic job forcasting this system! I'm impressed.
anybody think ernesto might return to his original projected path, ie. right over cayman?
thanks Gulf -



That's what I thought was happening. It's happened with this storm every time the thing's been sheared or blocked: the CoC has reformed in a more conductive place. I couldn't get your link to work though - it's blocked at my end. Can anyone post a loop on this blog, those seem to work okay.
1187. Ineluki
What the hell...now the NHC track has landfall in South Carolina and then passing far west of me in Virginia as a tropical depression...what will this track do next?
Goodness - Cuba is an enemy state. We have no diplomatic relations. Were we to attempt an overflight - we could easily be blown out of the sky.
Now Ernesto is predicted to make landfall along SC as a hurricane.
5PM advisory now out... doesn't say too much that we don't already know... does mention rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches

EastCoastWx.net Forums
Link

STRAIGHT FROM THE HORSE'S MOUTH The hunters usually do not fly over land for safety reasons, but they can fly over Cuba if they feel they really need to.
Is it true some or all the guidance models factor in non weather related factors like population density? I was told this during Rita when the models all try to pull it toward Houston.
The convection to the east is beginning to wrap around the COC.
At 21.3 N, 76.9W, the COC is near Puerto Padre, Cuba, about 15-20 miles SE of the coast. So at 13 mph, it should be over water in an hour.
"..HH are not..repeat not allowed into Cuban air space..except for Vector into Gitmo for Emergencies..Period."

sorry patrap, but that is not true. period. see my earlier post.

The water off Cuba is very hot without shear this could be a hurricane again quickly.
raindance cuba is not hostule to the us. the us is hostile to cuba. the nhc helps cuba out immensly and its a nato type scenario. they can fly into cuban airspace with permision just not over havannah. no one can fly over havannah.

next gutmo is actually us soil perse so we can fly over that with out permision
1200. amd
i am about to give up in trying to reason out a path, intensity, or even location of the center. It seems like ernesto keeps changing the scenarios every hour, and I think there may be more than 1 circulation center.

I can't find the COC on the IR floater. Help. Has this thing fallen that much apart that the COC is disrupted??
lol lefty if it picked up speed like you are saying what is it doing taking the scenic route it should of been off of cuba a long time ago if thats the case....sorry lefty got top go against you on this ...nhc is wrong as usual...StormTop
1203. Patrap
.then you take the left seat..LOL
Wow i guess Fox news got it wrong again..they stated that recon IS ALLOWED over Cuba if the plane is a US recon weather plane. This was justified by the reporter as recon of any kind from any country during a weather emergency would help to save CUBAN LIVES. oh well i guess this is false
Great link Gulfscots. Looks like the eastern part of the storm is caught on the tip of Cuba. Are you suggesting the center, over on the western side, could pull this strong convection around the tip as it exits land and enters water?
Does anyone think that there is a possibility with a slower and much weaker Ernesto (perhaps a depression or just a remnant low) that the ridge will built faster over him and push him further west where it can later reorganize?

I am just speculating on this scenario because the GFS has Ernesto pushing north even after the trough exits into the Atlantic and the rige has rebuilt over the eastern US. But couldn't it be that a weaker low stayes further south and then it has to wrap around the ridge towards the west?
NOAA PLANES CAN FLY INTO CUBAN AIRSPACE WITH PERMISION. HAPPENS ALL THE TIME. ANYONE WHO TRACKED IVAN OR DENNISE WOULD KNOW THIS. THYE CAN NOT FLY OVER HAVANNAH. NO PLANE IS ALLOWED IN HAVANAHH AIRSPACE LOOK IT UP IN GOOGLE IF U DONLT BELIVE. I WILL NOT FIND U THE FACTS BUT I KNOW THEM FOR MY SELF FROM PAST HURRICANE SEASONS. THIS IS NOT THE FIRST TIME IT HAS BEEN EXPLAINED AND SURLEY NOT THE LAST
newbie here.....what is a "coc"?Thanks
From the NHC:

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
CUBA TONIGHT.


I cannot wait until tomorrow morning and see the sat images from overnight. I have no idea what the good folks at the NHC are looking at, but this system is moving south and west into the Carribean.
If I'm right about this, may think about applying for "devil's advocate" position at NHC.
1213. Patrap
..ditto lefty on the recon ....CAlamity Knows no Borders
stormtiop its not taking a scenice route. i dontl knwo what your seeing but i aint going to argue with u, the nhc says nw at 13 which is what i was seeing and even deacribed to u a few posts down. wake up its been trending right for days and will continue to.
Posted By: CycloneOz at 8:44 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
"This system" is without question now heading directly back into the Carribean sea, south and west.

If you can't see it...keep trying...the sat images in IR and VIS are showing it.



so you think it may revert to its original trac?
If you will recall from the 90's - Cuba shot down two aircraft from the US... Sounds a bit hostile to me! :)
patrap -


Thanks, I didn't know if the Cubans might have soften a little when it came to things like Hurricane Hunters that might save a few Cuban lives as well. I guess we're just going to have to wait 'till the storm completely exits Cuba to get a good dataset which means that if the steering currents start getting funky people who thought they were safe from a minor tropical storm might find themselves hip deep in water with small dogs and sheet metal flying by at NASCAR speeds.
So from what I'm gathering here, we can't agree if the hurricane hunters are allowed to fly into it, we don't agree on it's current direction, we don't agree on where the COC is, and we don't agree on whether it's currently a TD or TS, and we don't agree on whether it will enter the Gulf, S. Florida or the Bahamas. Is that about it? or does anyone have any other ambiguities they'd like to add? This has been tremendously helpful.
The NHC has Erensto as a hurricane hitting Charleston on Thursday afternoon.

Anyone agree with that?
The middle of hurricanes are not void as some might think..they are actually filled with a creamy sweet filling that is very tasty.
Here stormtop

read the disscussion when it comes out 2

they say nw @ 13. if u wnat to argue like i always tell u pick up the phone and call them

CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED
FOR FLORIDA FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE
DRY TORTUGAS. THESE AREAS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FROM
CHOKOLOSKEE NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE
BIMINIS AND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THESE ISLANDS ALSO REMAIN UNDER A HURRICANE WATCH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS... AND
CAMAGUEY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...ABOUT 60 MILES...
100 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER
WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


"rwdobson,
Yes...the Noaa aircraft can, but not the HH form Biloxi."

makes sense...the HH are technically military planes.
1226. Patrap
..believes some are seeing the Billowing canopy expanding southwest..the overall motion is NW..@13 .the NHC & observed speed of 13mph is on the money
rwdobson,
Yes...the Noaa aircraft can, but not the HH form Biloxi."

makes sense...the HH are technically military planes.


false even them with permision can. this was also duisscussed and ebunked i beliove by dr.masters himself last year. its the same thing every year when a storm is over cuba
At the 5PM coordinates, 21.3 and 76.9, you can kind of make out the COC and convection appears to be trying to fire up again.
What direction is the Center Of Circulation Moving?
Repeat:

Does anyone think that there is a possibility with a slower and much weaker Ernesto (perhaps a depression or just a remnant low) that the ridge will built faster over him and push him further west where it can later reorganize?

I am just speculating on this scenario because the GFS has Ernesto pushing north even after the trough exits into the Atlantic and the rige has rebuilt over the eastern US. But couldn't it be that a weaker low stayes further south and then it has to wrap around the ridge towards the west?
Does it matter or does anyone really care is the HH can or can not fly over Cuba. With this storm it does not appear to be necessary anyway.
i see nw. get a good visible loop and zoom all the way in and u will be able to find clues to the cnetrs location which i out at near the north coast of cuba just befor the nhc advisory came out. i also said it did not look satlled or was moving west but in fact is moving nw and even possibly nnw and willl emerege in 2-3 hoursa off the cuban coast and in to the bahammas
okay, thanks Gulf. I can't see squat without the loops and it's a mess down there. I thought the CoC might have reformed or at least shifted slightly east so that it was already over water, but I'll go with you on this one as I can't see jack from here.
I think switching the the intensity to a TS over FL might lower Floridians guard a little, intensity is the hardest part of these tracks....

If it indeed is just on the coast the 8pm advisory should be over water right?
Link


wow look how fast the t-storms are come back
JP...It looks like another de-coupling to me. COC leaving convection behind. Remember that?
lefty, i'm just quoting from NOAA. they say "NOAA is the only federal agency with hurricane tracking capabilities that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace."

this implies that DoD is not authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace.
so Patrat, Lefty, what's the deal - can the HH aircrat fly over Cuba or can't they?
Wow... models really shifted towards eastern Florida... I've never seen models have such a HUGE shift ! LOL

HardcoreWeather.com Forums
1247. jetpixx
As veteran as people have become over the past couple of season's, I am surprised at how people here in South Florida are panicking. But I suppose that is thanks to our fine local media who throw it into high gear. Anyway, I had been saying Marathon landfall and 60-65 mph last night - it might emerge briefly at 75mph like Katrina did just before hitting the coast - around Ocean Reef and barring clip the metro Miami/Dade area, etc. But no need for 75-90 gas lines.

Anyway, go to a 24-hour gas station - set your alarm clock and go at 3am when no one is there. I work overnight and can tell you - that is definitely the case. I'll get mine tonight after the sheep has picked through and then gone to sleep.
My forecast is now for a TS warning and just a hurricane watch still. Changed down to TS!
Im increasing my amatuer intensity forecast to a Cat3. The storm is looking like it COULD rapidly organize into a structure conducive to rapid intensification. If it doesnt pan out, so be it. I did call the east coast a few days ago when it was headed for "tampa". Why? Elongation of the system around the time it was headed between mobile and tampa. I always consider the "shape" of the system. Models are important but this storm is harder to use the models solely for a call. The general motion is still nw of course. It's the intensity forecast now that is in play ( for the amature cane person) While some may have tendency to bring every wave to a cat4, I assure you I dont. I look at the storm, the environment, and the models. The NHC is also a consideration.
1250. Patrap
.is overjoyed ..Almosts drops screw to his Cessna into his Bloody mary/...
Everything changed from the NHC at 5 for the east coast.
I think south Florida better watch this thing as it gets over warm water with little shear. Note new Track.
Boatofacar: What I really like about this blog is the occasional burst of laughter amidst the pondering.
Patrap- i can't see where the storm is crossing/crossed land yet. looks to me as if it has stall and the coc is trying to reform with much difficultly. your thoughts?
Here in Fort Lauderdale everyone is thinking that the storm will be a weak tropical storm. This thing is going to strengthen if it hits open water. Low wind shear and warm water = cat 1. There is quite a bit of water to cover. Anyone agree?
1258. Patrap
..Atlantis to begin rollback at Dawn to the VAB..fist motion around sunrise
Hello everybody, I am still a little worried here in Nassau. What conditions you guys think we can experience here in Nassau over the 36 hours or so?
Is the center detach from the convection?
1262. IKE
To those of you seeing convection firing back up around what's left of the apparent COC...have you looked at an IR loop. There's hardly ANY convection around the COC.

I'm not saying it can't refire..but, Ernesto is a shadow of it's former self.

I've had thunderstorm complexes blow thru here the last 2 weeks that were much worse then what Ernesto has left.
1264. Patrap
..no need to elaborate on a Moot subject...and would never imitate a man in tights.
lefty, i posted the info. NOAA says on it's website that it is the only federal angency that is authorized by Cuba to fly in its airspace.

it does not come out and say AF planes can't go there, but it does imply it.
well getting off for a lil bit be lurking till later when he is off the coast. have fun all
Now that NHC thinks it will stay TS over Florida... what do you guys think will happen to it after it leaves Florida ?

EastCoastWx.net Forums
1268. Patrap
..OOoh Rahhh..Semper Fi..watch the cyclone slide round the High!
JP,
Tom Terry said the track did shift west near you in Casselberry...he also mentioned the NW side is flaring back up again and the system is restregthening.

I think TS strength at landfall is very conservative.
I will not believe that the storm will only brush the East Coast of Florida until Ernesto turns that way. That center, which is on the coast of Cuba right now, is paralleling the Coast. The more time it moves along this Cot, the more chance it has of affecting the Florida's West Coast instead
jphurricane2006...Agree about the flights. Do you see the ce-coupling?
De-coupling
IKE , with the lack of any true convection, the center should continue WNW. Eventually it will emerge over waters, but if the storm does not turn right soon, then the West Coast of FLorida is not out of the woods.
1276. Patrap
is out to watch the T-storms roll in of Lake Ponchatrain..for a pic or 2
and for you arguing about the planes

NHC wont fly over land anymore, too dangerous. has nothing to do with cuba, it just wont fly missions over landmass
Tom Terry Rocks! Much better than the rest in my opinion
Is the center detach from the convection?
can we argue with the "official" NHC take ultimately?
hurricane 79,
I been saying that all day.
1282. IKE
This is from the horses mouth...the NHC..."The center is not well defined on high-resolution visible images and
synoptic surface observations from Cuba show little evidence of a
center."....

Per their 5pm EDST discussion.

79 its moving nw @ 13. thats all i ahve to say lol

oh and the gudance models keep moving right with every run.
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A
CENTER. BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA


Definatly some kind of restriction there.
Posted By: IKE at 9:03 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.

..have you looked at an IR loop. There's hardly ANY convection around the COC


There was NONE there a few hours ago Ike. Around the coc when it went over the mountainous regions, that is. I think its coming back kinda fast.
Why the heck does everyone come on here and bitch then put links to their website? Seems kind of rude to the people that put this one together.
Randrewl, please let me know what you think will be the conditions we will experience here in Nassau over the next 36 hours? Thanks.
But they are there in thier airspace


Latest GFS run is kinda frightening...
The new projected path by NHC has it strengthening as it moves north and making landfall north of Canaveral. This will probably change, too.
HH just got back from flying over the N coast of Cuba-per 5PM NHC discussion
wow... Sorry for the big Post... Forgot to resize immage.
Posted By: Weather456 at 9:07 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
Is the center detach from the convection?


The heaviest convection is far to the southeast but new convection if forming around the coc that is begining to exit the coast. We will have to see if it continues.
Take a look at all the buildup to the north side.

Link
convection is blowing up right near the cneetr and to the se of the cenetr and getting deeper. part of the cenetr is off the coast and will contiue to. every minute that passes its enviroment is getting better. now the qeustion is how long it takes to recover if at all. like i said earlier should be an interesting night
jphurricane2006...NHC has seen it all. They dropped me to a TS warning at 5. The COC has left the main body of the convection behind and is still firing more. That is true. But this is great news for Florida right now. Ernie got the stuffing knocked out by that ULL.
1299. 21N71W
a little detour on Ernesto's name :
Ernesto Guevara de la Serna or CHE Guevera...
The nhc 5 PM discussion is now "hinting" on a shift West.
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A
CENTER. BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA
In its discussion, the NHC says Ernesto's inner core has been disrupted and the potential to restrengthen into a hurricane was not likely. This morning they said after many hours over land the center would emerge sometime tonight and strengthen into a hurricane. They are experienced enough to know that when a circulation lingers over land for several hours, there's a good chance the center will be disrupted and will take considerably longer to recover and restrengthen. So what happened between this morning and this afternoon that caused a change in heart?
This storm is over - a non issue for us in Florida now.
Lefty is will be especially interesting if that center near the Coast continues WNW like that for some time.. beyond 12 hours
Afternoon ya'll, just got in from work. I see the model consensus shifted slightly. So do we have anyone in here that has any confidence in what this storm will do the next 36hrs?

Besides ST, as his opinion is really just his flavor of the day. He has predicted everything from Houston to the E coast onthis wone and each time made it sound as if it was "written in stone"
Posted By: Chicklit at 9:07 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
The new projected path by NHC has it strengthening as it moves north and making landfall north of Canaveral. This will probably change, too.


Chicklit: where do you see that? they have it exiting FL by canaveral
1307. scla08
THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.
SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN
BahamaPapa...Right now it appears like a Tropical Storm situation for the east coast of Florida. If the track shifts or a severe re-intensification occurs then you would be having more. You need to keep close tabs on this tonight and in the early morning. OK?
The shift to the West might buy Ernesto more time.
We should be hearing from The Doc pretty soon.
NHC stubbornly keeping track over E. Fla.Even GFS has shifted Westward.Just because the GFDL hasnt moved west tyey wont change the track.Time is running out,as with the case with hurricane Charley they will be slightly off again effecting many people.WATCH OUT SWFLA!
hey lefty, don't know what models you are looking at but the 12Z to 18Z runs showed a move to the left (Not right).

The NHC even said so in their discussion at 5pm when they mentioned the GFS and other guidance models have shifted slightly west.

They are following the GDFL model, which is smart. However, if that model moves left later tonight, so will the forecast. The NHC projection is on the "right" of all guidance from 18Z.

That can change at 00Z however.
1314. IKE
Folks over south Florida should be able to weather Ernesto...even the NHC doesn't give it much chance to reach a hurricane.
what happened? they messed up twice imho, who knows what data they used and who's incharge .
Lets see if reversing thier calls works better.( it may just be bad choices by a new guy or a new system that has to have the bugs worked out)
new GFS model takes up along the West Coast for Florida now, so does the BAMM
Posted By: StormJunkie at 9:14 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
Afternoon ya'll, just got in from work. I see the model consensus shifted slightly. So do we have anyone in here that has any confidence in what this storm will do the next 36hrs?

I think the NHC has a good handle on the short term now.
1318. dewfree
humm ok i see it seems to be ok for idle comment but get serious here people this is an open discussion on Ernesto and the curent blog at top of page .Dr. masters blog . can you keep your comments current with the blog please . The current and not so current models do conflick but the thing here is to watch the movement of the center .as the storm moves the models will move .of course they still will try to do this or that with the storm but it is the storm itself that will make or brake the models .yes tropical storms are influenced by patterns and weathr fenomenon but they do seem to have a way of tripping the models .I believe yestrdays model had a better grip on the storm even though they were all over the place .it still is my opinion utill i see movement to contrary that the storm will at some point inter the gulf and then turn towards the north east and cross florida .the stregth as to whitch it's uncertain at this time.It is not that the high is strong but what is to the east of it ,so i dont think it will be a fast mover maybe even sinking southwest alittle ."{it is in the curren thought if the high sinks to the south west that the storm is likey to travel up the east coast toward the carolina's that is why the models bring it close to the southern tip of florida and up the east coast}" .
Good call whoever it was.

New blog is up


Goto this Link and play the animation at it's fastest speed.

You'll see from my forecast map above that there are two competing areas of pressure that should push this system back into the Carribean Sea. What it does from there, I cannot guess.

But to still haveing it be moving at 13 to the NW is unreal to me. I still don't see that movement or speed. To me, both are wrong wrong.
what is interesting is that early on the NHC didn't follow the gfdl
StormJunkie...I could be totally wrong. I don't see a problem for Florida any longer. The COC is de-coupled from the main convection. There is more convection firing around the center. It's still a wait and see thing. My warnings here have been lowered to TS warning and a hurricane watch...not upgraded to a hurricane warning. This is good news and I believe we will see more good news at 11!
The NHC also mentioned that the system has been moving further West and faster than expected the past few hours. This wll affect the next GFDL and we may see a shift in track at 11 AM Westward. It is a watch and wait for the next couple of hours before this comes into fruition,
the nhc was uncertain about the NW movement...hinting that is could have indeed been W to WNW
fldud99: they have it exiting FL by canaveral

Oh yay! Thanks Florida Dude. I am multi-tasking. Why are we still under a hurricane watch up here while they're downgraded at present in South Florida?
Link


look at this loop it seen to me it is this about overe water but at the same time it looks like it moveing a long the cost so it like some on the cost and some is on there water and look what way it is moveing a long the cost

give me a commet and tell me what you think thanks
1328. gijim
It's amazing how much of this is still an art rather than a science.

Looking forward to hearing from Dr. Masters sometime before FL landfall... :p
79: do you think they will wait til 11AM to move this westwards? or did you mean PM
The models have been pretty consistent today. Slighly left isn't GOM. It's highly unlikely, though still possible, the west coast of the penisula see's this storm.
Tazmanian, theres a good chance that the Center will skirt the Coast for some time.
Expect a TS Storm/Hurricane Watch for the West in the near future up to Cedar Key....
Randrewl thanks for the info. You think we will get Tropical Storm force winds? Do I need to prepare for something?
I think that bottom area is mostly shear OZ There is a ULL to the east of there also. ERNE just went over a mountain range - and its forming up nicely on the other side of the Island.
For all of you who think Ernesto is moving to the W, you are wrong. Look at the visible sat and turn on tropical forecast points. Ernesto is DIRECTLY on the point where it was forecasted to be right now. Just look for yourself. Quit wish casting it, and wanting it to come to the panhandle or louisianna. Its not happening.
Posted By: 21N71W at 9:12 PM GMT on August 28, 2006.
a little detour on Ernesto's name :
Ernesto Guevara de la Serna or CHE Guevera...


Interesting tidbit.

Makes you wonder how the history of Cuba over the last 50 years would have been different had Batista's men been better shots and killed Che and Castro when they first landed in Cuba.
lol @ chicklit..maybe they expect it to blow up over lake okeechobee intensifying it there
Keep an eye on the NW side it is refiring, Tom Terry hinted at this, he thinks the storm is starting to intensify..if that NW convection holds could be a sign of it getting better organized.
strong>New flare up near the COC.<
new blog!!!!!
1341. scla08
pipsney, no one is wishcasting.. And yes, it IS moving w-wnw.. NOT NW! the reason it is where it is supposed to be is because the nhc just came out with the new forecast and position. The NHC even says it may be west of the previous positon at 5pm edt! "THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE."
It's still not getting West of the FL peninsula...this is an Atlantic Coast storm now, folks.
1343. K8eCane
c'mon guys
do you really want it to strike ya so bad that you're hallucinating now?
Looks like the 38W 17N low is providing some anticyclonic pressure to the ITCZ. But there is another blob coming off Africa that may be far enough east to avoid this. Ernesto looks to be staying very low-key.
Even if it is moving WNW according to you, then it would HAVE to turn back north. All models, NHC, and Forecasts show it making a DUE north turn. It may move west right now, but the NHC said this could happen. Its because there is a big thing in Cuba called MOUNTAINS. They wobble the storm. You are watching the convection, not the COC. But then again, they said it culd emerge as far west as western tip of cuba but then TURN NORTH. So stop getting so excited that its coming towards you. I bet your either in north florida or the west coast.
Ya'll, I tried once already...A new blog is up...
Kinda funny how everybody was talking about the hotspot between Cuba and Jamaica as Ernesto approached, and then almost as if on queue Ernesto skirted around it to the north. Ernesto has done a wonderful job of avoiding hotspots. Can we train future hurricanes to do that?
That 2nd ULL nobody talked about 3 days ago is now responsible for curving Ernesto northward and out of a dangerous Gulf path. Today they started talking about it, but they didn't beforehand. It's almost as if all the computer models ignored it 3 days ago and now have it fairly correct.
Storms never travel in a straight line.


Also, everyone else look at the visible loop.

The convection is beginning to get pulled a little more north to the COC. This means its getting stronger. Another piece of evidence that it is getting stronger is that the cry air that was to the west of the storm is now being pushed off to the west. If Ernesto was weak, the dry air would filter into Ernesto's COC. But its NOT, its being pushed away. And the only way this storm could strengthen was if it emerged into the warm straits/atlantic, NOT the western side of Cuba.
1350. scla08
It IS moving WNW!! I'm not wishing it would come any where near me! Im just looking at the latest satellite pictures. And I hope you know, the models and the NHC isn't always right.. you shouldn't be relying on the models to tell you exactly where it is going because chances are they will move! And there is a high pressure to the north of it so it's not just gonna make sharp turn to the north all of a sudden. Also, I should point out, there are no mountains in the position it is in right now!
It's barely a TS as of the 5 pm update...it will be a strong TS or at worst a minimal Cat 1 at landfall in S FL. Not much worse than a strong thunderstorm. The Gulf Coast is pretty much out of the woods on this one now, too. All you fellow Tampa Bay folks can just save your stuff for the next storm.
Ok, lets just settle this. You think its moving west north west, i think its still moving north west. thats the whole reason this blog is here. to express opinions. lets just wait and see what this storm does lol.
1353. K8eCane
i just hate it when people become psychotic over these storms though
1354. scla08
LOL.. I agree 100% about waiting to see what it does! But I'll tell you right now, I am NOT wishcasting, and I live far from florida.
ernesto is moving nw
If I were to tell you 2 days ago that the storm would make landfall near Miami and then move to the Carolinas, when the models were pointing to the Central Gulf. You all would have thought I was NUTS! Well, from the unpredictable seen in the history of this storm, I would not be suprised to see another "twist" in the rhealm of forecasting, by both the NHC, models, and Ernesto himself.
1357. wpieler
new blog started