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Erika’s Path Shifts West; Hawaii Still Watching Ignacio

By: Bob Henson 5:24 AM GMT on August 29, 2015

Thumbing its nose at some of the world’s most skilled computer models and forecasters, Tropical Storm Erika cruised relentlessly almost due west through the northern Caribbean on Friday, failing to make a long-predicted northwestward turn toward the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center placed Erika's ill-defined center at 11:00 pm EDT Friday at 18.5°N, 72.9°W, or about 40 miles west of Haiti’s capital, Port-au-Prince. Erika’s top sustained winds were set at 45 mph. Hurricane-hunter flights on Friday had found flight-level winds of as high as 55 knots (more than 60 mph) on the north side of Erika.

Erika has been a troubled-looking system, with thunderstorms mostly straggling behind and south of the center due to upper-level northwesterlies producing vertical wind shear (the difference between upper- and lower-level winds) of about 30 mph. Despite the shear, Erika’s large circulation maintained a broad north-to-south oriented region of intense convection through most of Friday before thunderstorms consolidated toward its north end on Friday evening. Most of the core convection passed just south of Puerto Rico, so by and large, the island missed out on the rain that it so desperately needs. San Juan’s Luis Munoz Marin International Airport reported just 0.25” on Thursday and 0.22” on Friday. Heavy rains swept through the Dominican Republic late Friday: a personal weather station in Barahona reported 23.76" of rain between 1 pm Friday and 2 am Saturday, including 8.80" in one hour from 8 pm to 9 pm Friday. Late Friday night, a very intense cluster of thunderstorms was moving slowly across southwestern Haiti, including Port-au-Prince. Deforestation across much of Haiti makes its hillsides especially vulnerable to flash flooding and mudslides, so it appears a difficult night is unfolding for this troubled nation, which has still not fully recovered from the devastating earthquake that killed more than 100,000 people in 2010. According to the Miami Herald, roughly 65,000 Haitians are still housed in tents, with thousands more in precarious housing near flood- and mudslide-prone areas.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Erika from the GOES-East floater satellite, collected at 0415 GMT Saturday, August 27 (12:15 am EDT). Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


What next for Erika?
It’s tempting to avoid any speculation on what Erika might do, given its behavior in the last 24 hours. Weaker systems often bear to the left, as lower-level winds envelop a larger part of their circulation, so this could be part of why Erika’s path stayed south of nearly all model predictions from just a day earlier. Erika’s motion has resulted in several westward shifts to the NHC-produced cone of probabilities since Thursday. The forecast issued at 11 pm EDT Friday (see Figure 3 below) brings Erika into the extreme eastern Gulf of Mexico as a minimal tropical storm, paralleling Florida’s west coast on Monday and Tuesday. This is roughly consistent with the 0000 GMT Saturday early-cycle update of Friday’s 1800 GMT dynamical models, which takes Erika northward on an inland track through Florida (see Figure 2 below). Not surprisingly, several statistics-based models, which rely heavily on climatology and extrapolation of recent trends, are now taking Erika on a more westward recurvature, through the heart of the Gulf of Mexico. If Erika were to take such an extreme westward track, some rebound in strength would be plausible, since the storm would largely avoid passing over the landmass of Cuba, and deep-layer shear is expected to relax somewhat over the weekend. However, the dynamical models agree that Erika should begin arcing more northwestward across the spine of Cuba on Saturday, with a slower motion to boot. Such a scenario would quickly sound the death knell for Erika as a tropical cyclone, and this is the most probable solution, although a more westward-curving track can’t be entirely ruled out.



Figure 2. Early-cycle track guidance for 0000 GMT Friday, August 28 (left) and Saturday, August 29 (right), show the leftward shift of most dynamical and statistical models. Early-cycle guidance adjusts the model runs carried out in the previous six hours to account for more recent storm behavior. The GFDL model was a noteworthy outlier to the right at 0000 GMT Friday, while several statistical models were leftward outliers at 0000 GMT Saturday. The National Hurricane Center has an online guide to the models abbreviated on these graphics. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project.


Regardless of how it’s classified, Erika can be expected to produce large amounts of rain across Cuba this weekend, and the storm or its remnants will likely drench Florida early next week. Some parts of the state could use the rain, but many other parts--especially the western peninsula, including the Tampa area--are already waterlogged after an very wet few weeks (see Figure 4 below). The potential for a weak but large tropical depression to cause widespread flooding should not be underestimated.



Figure 3. The NHC outlook for Erika issued at 11:00 pm EDT on Friday, August 28.


Figure 4. Rainfall across Florida over the 30-day period ending at 8:00 am EDT on Friday, August 28. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.


Figure 5. Hurricanes Ignacio (left) and Jimena (right), in an enhanced infrared image captured by the GOES-West satellite at 0330 GMT Saturday, August 27 (11:30 pm EDT Friday).

Hawaii may dodge a bullet with Ignacio
Hurricane Ignacio continues to plow across the open waters of the Northeast Pacific, still packing winds of 90 mph as of 11:00 pm EDT Friday. Ignacio is located about 720 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Most of the major dynamical models have been consistent in tracking Ignacio about 100 to 200 miles north of the Hawaiian islands, along a west-northwest track roughly paralleling the islands. For a state inexperienced with hurricanes--the Big Island has never recorded one--this is a nerve-rackingly close forecast, but the consistency across models and across time, and Ignacio’s relatively steady track, lends confidence to the forecast. Ignacio is predicted to pass the islands on Monday and Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane after intensifying to Category 2 strength over the weekend. Sea-surface temperatures are about 2°C (3.6°F) above average, which will help give Ignacio an injection of energy that’s unusual for this part of the Northeast Pacific.

Category 3 Jimena aims for the top
Hurricane Jimena put on a major show of strength Friday, vaulting to a high-end Category 3 rating. Jimena’s top sustained winds were estimated at 125 mph in the NHC advisory issued at 11:00 pm EDT Friday, which makes it the fourth major hurricane of the season in the Northeast Pacific. Jimena’s mostly westward motion is keeping it at low latitudes, with plenty of warm water at the ready, and upper-level conditions are favorable for even more strengthening. NHC is predicting Jimena to continue rapidly intensifying into Saturday, and it may reach Category 5 strength. Last year’s Hurricane Marie was the most recent Category 5 storm in the Northeast Pacific; the strongest on record was 1997’s Hurricane Linda, which packed sustained winds of 185 mph. Jimena’s track will avoid land areas for at least the next five days, and it appears likely to be picked up by a long-range trough before it would approach Hawaii. Longer-range models continue to suggest that Jimena could maintain tropical characteristics up to an unusually high latitude in the Northeast Pacific more than a week from now.

Jeff Masters will be back with our next update on Saturday.

Bob Henson



Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ok i am clearly not understanding what happened is she dead ? No more advisories? I am just north of Miami can i go back to sleep now with nothing to worry about? I am dizzy with confusion... Lol
It's under 10kts of shear

That ULL still has not weakened. Erika sitting directly under it.



200MB (Old Center Location)
Quoting 446. stormwatcherCI:

I don't know if it is my eyes but down around 17N looks like it has a spin plus decent convection firing now.
One problem with this system is that it's always had that secondary competing circulation. Maybe by allowing the N centre to be decommissioned, they can recognise the S circulation as a "new" system coming off the same wave. ???? All I know is this is one discombobulating storm ...

If things work out in a good way, you guys may get some rain down there .... sure looks like that area is headed west ...
Quoting 459. Austin72893:

Twc said Bahamas are getting 30-40mph right now but don't know why lol
Probably a report from Inagua.
Quoting 485. Wolfberry:



100% He nailed it! At first I couldn't follow a word ecflweatherfan said and just watched it all unfold a post at a time. Excellent Work! Absolute Congratulations!


Congratulations to those on this site that called it late yesterday evening, that Erika would emerge off Hispaniola as a naked swirl!
Good morning everyone. erika was forecasted to be a depression today. The BIG question I have is what makes the difference between the nhc classifying her from depression or dissipating her and discontinuing advisories?
Quoting 484. GetReal:

a!!! Totally naked vortex, and decoupled and cut off from convection field to the east. Add to that a already high and rising barometric pressure, extremely high wind shear from the west (look at the blow off in loop), and let us not forget the dry air it now finds itself in. Erika is gone!

It has been feeding off the convection AND the outflow from the S half of Eriika. ecfl noticed it just before it started popping convection and sucking down outflow and getting fat.
What you see as shear is that outflow from the S half (Erika's consistent MLC) which has had <-70C tops through out.
Baby Freddie will be fine unless the NHC right about Must.Cross.Cuba.
They are chasing a sfc trof that's in the Bahamas as shown in 06Z sfc charts
Not Erika centre it's self
Which IMO is still S of SE Cuba
I'm done for now too early in the morning to be having a headache
Ignacio looks to be really wrapping up this morning. Recon found 90mph winds in their first mission, but if these trends continue they may find a major hurricane when they go in again around 18z. Track continues to look safely north/east of Hawaii.



Quoting 482. ducktruck:

Just curious, if this degenerates into a trough as the NHC predicts, how difficult or easy would it be for a new llc to spin up from it considering the low pressure and winds associated with it right now?


Hard to say, but first things first, it needs to slow down. Convection isn't keeping up with the LLC. Hard to do with shear as well. LLC needs to slow and shear needs to lighten up. Then it should be able to do so efficiently as long as it stays over that bath water.
Quoting 257. K8eCane:



I am so with you


From the Twitter Sphere Moments ago I agree 100% with you. And i have a vest interest in this in the Lower Keys

NWS Key West retweeted
NHC Atlantic Ops ‏@NHC_Atlantic 8m8 minutes ago University Park, FL
Relocation of Erika causes cone graphic to look peculiar. System appears to be dissipating and last advisory likely soon.
Quoting 505. GetReal:



Congratulations to those on this site that called it late yesterday evening, that Erika would emerge off Hispaniola as a naked swirl!

As mentioned before. It isnt naked.
514. DougL
Pine Cay in TCI is now reporting SE winds of 45 to 60 mph. Have a boat in Port-au-Prince Haiti last night at anchor, and crew reported very mild winds and a few gusts about 4 am, estimated at 35 mph. Very light rain. Easterly, so no waves.
Becoming increasingly likely that we will not see an updated cone.
Quoting 493. gator23:


That swirl is not the center. The center is closer to the convection at 21N 75.5W per the NHC


That is the center flying away from the remaining convection at 20+ mph. It is over... The ULL to the west has finished her off...
Quoting 498. BlxMS:

Alot quieter here than it was ten years ago. A decade ago this minute, the GoM was starting to come into our house and the wife and I were headed to the attic. This morning....70 degrees, mostly clear, and a light wind out of the nne. This morning is wayyyyy better.
We are VERY glad you are here to enjoy it! Have a super day!

I gotta run.... will lurk if possible .... just don't know what to think with this system anymore .....
Erika didn't dissipate - it split into two separate storms in two different basins.
The LLC is N of eastern Cuba buiding up.
The MLC is S of Hispaniola building down.
WAIT, so Erika is that little swirl north of cuba moving my way here in SE FL??? If so, this has a good chance of re-developing..
So now that I have my coffee, I see some think that the center relocated to around 21N, 75W. I can definitely see something to that, but... I still need to drink my coffee. Erika has been nothing but a hot mess, this would only be a fitting new chapter.

Also seems Erika hates mountains if this is the case. As Seinfeld would say, Erika is an anti-mountite.
Quoting 506. Neyewall:

Good morning everyone. erika was forecasted to be a depression today. The BIG question I have is what makes the difference between the nhc classifying her from depression or dissipating her and discontinuing advisories?


Well, I think a depression still has a centre of circulation, but winds below the 39 mph criterion for a tropical storm. Dissipation means it has lost its cyclonic circulation and become just an open wave
Really wishing that Recon could get to sample the area around the new "center" so we can know if it dissapated or if its still alive...
Unless, it's broad and a portion of the circulation still remains over Cuba
So far RECON is finding nothing that even remotely appears to be a circulation just pure E winds
Quoting 508. wunderkidcayman:

They are chasing a sfc trof that's in the Bahamas as shown in 06Z sfc charts
Not Erika centre it's self
Which IMO is still S of SE Cuba


Then why don't you call them and tell them that.
Quoting 521. Stoopid1:

So now that I have my coffee, I see some think that the center relocated to around 21N, 75W. I can definitely see something to that, but... I still need to drink my coffee. Erika has been nothing but a hot mess, this would only be a fitting new chapter.

Also seems Erika hates mountains if this is the case. As Seinfeld would say, Erika is an anti-mountite.

The NHC has the center there. Not us.
Rain is here now, wind has picked up also...from our hill we can see out past the Palisadoes to sea but ATM from the stadium on it is a white wall...
GEOS-5 has been showing this point where the islands cause Erika to be an open wave or barely closed for a few days as it rakes Cuba. May reform again quickly Sunday evening.. We'll see.



Then it still has the west coast taking the bad side all the way to the panhandle..
One more thing.

CHILLAX, folks... Erika will be Erika, now matter what we say on here.

Be glad that so far we've heard no death reports from Hispaniola ....

L8r.
Quoting 488. FIUStormChaser:

Well Recon has 2 hours to find a LLC before it gets discontinued at 11am, lets see what happens.


They probably will not be able to find the center, even with a search warrant!!!
Quoting 526. Bucsboltsfan:



Then why don't you call them and tell them that.

Here. It is long distance though... (305) 229-4470
Looks like everyone went to try that number...
it would be unusual to get a landfaller in the big bend during cv season.
Quoting 529. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 has been showing this point where the islands cause Erika to be an open wave or barely closed for a few days as it rakes Cuba. May reform again quickly Sunday evening.. We'll see.



Then it still has the west coast taking the bad side all the way to the panhandle..

yes More flooding problems indeed.
If Erika dissipates does it have a chance to reform or its done done
I'm looking & following on other blogs & the consensus is that Erika has no LLC & will dissipate and I am on board now with that & say Erika is gone but can still bring rain/heavy rain to Go but its no longer a tropical system and 11am advisories & watches/warnings will be discontinued.
so what about that hurricane jimena possible cat 5, oh wait we must talk about a storm that might affect florida as a td because that is so much more interesting than a possible cat 5
Sfc obs from S Cuba and N Jamaica are now strongly indicating that the centre is located between Cuba and Jamaica

N-NW winds in N and NW Jamaica and a bit of WSW winds near the E coast of Jamaica and NE and SE winds in S Cuba

http://philfactor-phil.blogspot.com/2015/08/error -ka.html
Is anyone having problems with Sat pics on NHC site, Won't download or it gets stuck. Internet explorer was giving me issues last night on this site, ERRRR!
Quoting 426. ChillinInTheKeys:



Lol


I thought this graphic was meant to be a joke. I didn't realize it is the actual forecast track from the NHC. Didn't realize they have such a good sense of humor at the NHC.
Recon appears to be leaving the storm, i sure wish they investigated more.
Quoting 537. poolerGa79:

I'm looking & following on other blogs & the consensus is that Erika has no LLC & will dissipate and I am on board now with that & say Erika is gone but can still bring rain/heavy rain to Go but its no longer a tropical system and 11am advisories & watches/warnings will be discontinued.


I would agree with you but there is something spinning up and clearly it shows it on the visible images near 22N and 75W and convection is starting to get going there so I think that's why the NHC is waiting till 11am to either pull the plug or wait to see what recon finds and if it becomes more defined
Quoting 543. FIUStormChaser:

Recon appears to be leaving the storm, i sure wish they investigated more.
recon its tuning west now

http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map &mapid=roadmap&zoom=6&lat=21.9326&lng=-75.2865&cal lsign=NASA928
Quoting 537. poolerGa79:

I'm looking & following on other blogs & the consensus is that Erika has no LLC & will dissipate and I am on board now with that & say Erika is gone but can still bring rain/heavy rain to Go but its no longer a tropical system and 11am advisories & watches/warnings will be discontinued.

which blogs?
Forgive my lack of knowledge on hurricanes even though I have endured 3 plus several tropical storms. I do not understand why FL is in such a panic over the possibility of a weak tropical storm or a depression. Regular programming was interrupted for the most part yesterday whilst the governor and anyone who had access to a microphone was stirring the pot. Floridians are use to storms and have gone through many disastrous ones and most people are well prepared. Erika just appears to be a nuisance mosquito that will not even have a name when and if it reaches Florida. Am I reading the info incorrectly?
Quoting 542. Bucsboltsfan:



I thought this graphic was meant to be a joke. I didn't realize it is the actual forecast track from the NHC. Didn't realize they have such a good sense of humor at the NHC.

TWC said the cone will update at 11AM or be discontinued.
Quoting 543. FIUStormChaser:

Recon appears to be leaving the storm, i sure wish they investigated more.


They just finished their outbound leg in the NW Quadrant... So they still have more to do. Based in their ending point, the hit the naked swirl, too.
Quoting 543. FIUStormChaser:

Recon appears to be leaving the storm, i sure wish they investigated more.


No it isn't what are you talking about

Quoting 545. Prouss:


recon its tuning west now


No E
Quoting 536. Neyewall:

If Erika dissipates does it have a chance to reform or its done done
Has a chance of re-developing


More evidence that Erika is done, and is now an open wave... Try to find some westward moving lower level clouds around the last perceived LLC!?!? There is no closed LLC IMO.
Quoting 539. wunderkidcayman:

Sfc obs from S Cuba and N Jamaica are now strongly indicating that the centre is located between Cuba and Jamaica

N-NW winds in N and NW Jamaica and a bit of WSW winds near the E coast of Jamaica and NE and SE winds in S Cuba


Nah, Greg Postel said that the only signs left are North of Cuba. He also thinks that the NHC will issue it's last advisory at 11:00.
Quoting 547. leicesterlass:

Forgive my lack of knowledge on hurricanes even though I have endured 3 plus several tropical storms. I do not understand why FL is in such a panic over the possibility of a weak tropical storm or a depression. Regular programming was interrupted for the most part yesterday whilst the governor and anyone who had access to a microphone was stirring the pot. Floridians are use to storms and have gone through many disastrous ones and most people are well prepared. Erika just appears to be a nuisance mosquito that will not even have a name when and if it reaches Florida. Am I reading the info incorrectly?
yeah thats the jist of it a state of emergency for a td wow imagine if they did this when the storm that made landfall ten days ago today was still a td
Quoting 536. Neyewall:

If Erika dissipates does it have a chance to reform or its done done


Absolutely can reform. They "MAY" hold it for one more advisory to see what happens, I've seen them do that before. But most likely they will dissipate and put a circle on it.
Quoting 547. leicesterlass:

Forgive my lack of knowledge on hurricanes even though I have endured 3 plus several tropical storms. I do not understand why FL is in such a panic over the possibility of a weak tropical storm or a depression. Regular programming was interrupted for the most part yesterday whilst the governor and anyone who had access to a microphone was stirring the pot. Floridians are use to storms and have gone through many disastrous ones and most people are well prepared. Erika just appears to be a nuisance mosquito that will not even have a name when and if it reaches Florida. Am I reading the info incorrectly?

I can only speak for myself as a Floridian who has been through many TC including 1 CAT 5 when I say this but:
1) Floridians are well aware that intensity forecasts mean nothing and that storms can have strengthened at landfall or suddenly overnight.
2) Even weak tropical storms cause mass flooding and tornadoes. Erika looks like a flooder.
3) She has been very hard to track of late so we are being extra careful.

Once we start cancelling Dolphins games or Gator games then we're REALLY worried.
Quoting 548. gator23:


TWC said the cone will update at 11AM or be discontinued.


I'm thinking discontinued. I don't see any signs of a closed circulation.
Quoting 549. ecflweatherfan:



They just finished their outbound leg in the NW Quadrant... So they still have more to do. Based in their ending point, the hit the naked swirl, too.


It would be nice if they head back to where the convection is.
BTW, those not observing the southern area should at least consider giving an eye to it today. Until it's ripped apart by shear or it fades away, it's still a potentially potent rainmaker, if nothing else.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic
* Haiti
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Central Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas
* The Cuban Provinces of Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, Las Tunas,
Holguin, and Guantanamo
Erika LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL WAVE TO ME
NHC Ops just said special advisory Erika has dissipated.
Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
Quoting 562. FIUStormChaser:

NHC Ops just said special advisory Erika has dissipated.
Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
Quoting 552. GetReal:



More evidence that Erika is done, and is now an open wave... Try to find some westward moving lower level clouds around the last perceived LLC!?!? There is no closed LLC IMO.


Plenty of westward moving clouds around that LLC. And if you look close enough you will find eastward moving ones too around the same circulation. Does that mean that winds extend all the way to the surface, no not necessarily.
erica was a big circulation. she might have to transform herself to a smaller entity in the tight fl. straits.
Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
Quoting 562. FIUStormChaser:

NHC Ops just said special advisory Erika has dissipated.


Good.
Quoting 526. Bucsboltsfan:



Then why don't you call them and tell them that.


How much you want to bet that he already did.
TWC used to send their mets into the field one day before a storm. They've been reporting from South Florida for 3 days now. I guess they badly wanted a Florida hurricane to report on.
Looks like the new low pressure center trying to reform on cubas noth coast.Wheter its a closed low or not hard to say.
Oh come on guys it's so obvious

Quoting 563. hurricanes2018:

Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

Nothing will change. Will still bring heavy rain, flooding and some wind to Florida starting tomorrow.
Quoting 567. ProgressivePulse:

Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.


Kudos to all those who said that Erika would not make it and got ripped for saying it.
Quoting 541. hurricanewatcher61:

Is anyone having problems with Sat pics on NHC site, Won't download or it gets stuck. Internet explorer was giving me issues last night on this site, ERRRR!
I have been having the same problem for a couple days. Always come back to WU. Lot more information and knowledgeable people here.
Quoting 570. Bucsboltsfan:

TWC used to send their mets into the field one day before a storm. They've been reporting from South Florida for 3 days now. I guess they badly wanted a Florida hurricane to report on.

Or an excuse to get out of Atlanta and party on south beach on the company dime...
577. tj175
Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
Quoting 547. leicesterlass:

Forgive my lack of knowledge on hurricanes even though I have endured 3 plus several tropical storms. I do not understand why FL is in such a panic over the possibility of a weak tropical storm or a depression. Regular programming was interrupted for the most part yesterday whilst the governor and anyone who had access to a microphone was stirring the pot. Floridians are use to storms and have gone through many disastrous ones and most people are well prepared. Erika just appears to be a nuisance mosquito that will not even have a name when and if it reaches Florida. Am I reading the info incorrectly?


Which Floridians are you speaking of? Almost 360,000 people move to Florida each year. There hasn't been a hurricane since 2005? That's a LOT of people that have NEVER been through one and a LOT of people that have never been through a tropical storm. That's why Gov Scott and all those other people were on yesterday. So they would know that they were doing their best to help every Floridian know how dangerous these things can be. I applaud them.
579. IKE
Bye bye Erika.
NHC has officially dissipated Erika & will release statement soon.
Quoting 574. Bucsboltsfan:



Kudos to all those who said that Erika would not make it and got ripped for saying it.

straaawwww mmaaannn
Let me be the first to say

"Ding Dong the Witch is dead"
Quoting 572. wunderkidcayman:

Oh come on guys it's so obvious




Where are the west winds at? Look at Jamaica, all over the place. There is NO closed low down there. It's so obvious.
584. joHS
stay tuned...for future installments :)
So now that it's officially dissipated it will be interesting to see how they forecast her remnants. What do you guys think are her Chances of reforming?

Would not surprise me to see a tropical storm near the keys by tomorrow.
Quoting 564. hurricanes2018:

Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.

Bye, Felicia!
Now, does this mean Florida doesn't have to worry about all the rain now?
Quoting 567. ProgressivePulse:

Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
NHC has lost their minds!
Quoting 582. ProgressivePulse:

Let me be the first to say

"Ding Dong the Witch is dead"


LOL repeating as i stand and applaud The Saga Of Erika!
NHC cancelling watches and warnings and says Erika dissipated. Meanwhile RECON appears to be heading back out to investigate again...
Now just my humble opinion but Erika I don't see her reforming at all I feel like just an area of rain nothing more will move through but I already know here comes 285,000 questions about what if this & what if that will Erika reform again? But she isn't going to reform.
Fresh Map. Whatever is left will slow down and head N soon.



Quoting 589. hurricanewatcher61:

Now, does this mean Florida doesn't have to worry about all the rain now?


Nope definitely wouldn't say that. Still going to be copious moisture associated with the remnants, coupled by the trough, to give a good dousing to the state.
So, I have 2 questions for you guys... 1. Will FL be in a cone again this season? 2. Will next year be an El Nino or a La Nina?
Quoting 589. hurricanewatcher61:

Now, does this mean Florida doesn't have to worry about all the rain now?


Most likely, unless it regenerates.



look at invest 99L maybe up to 70% and 90% to at 2pm!


wow invest 99L THIS MORNING
Quoting 547. leicesterlass:

Forgive my lack of knowledge on hurricanes even though I have endured 3 plus several tropical storms. I do not understand why FL is in such a panic over the possibility of a weak tropical storm or a depression. Regular programming was interrupted for the most part yesterday whilst the governor and anyone who had access to a microphone was stirring the pot. Floridians are use to storms and have gone through many disastrous ones and most people are well prepared. Erika just appears to be a nuisance mosquito that will not even have a name when and if it reaches Florida. Am I reading the info incorrectly?



"Am I reading the info incorrectly?"

Yes you are. In my opinion, the last thing that the West coast and Central Florida need is more rain. What caused the catastrophe in Dominica? Rain. Why? probably because according to the best available information no warnings of any type were issued.
You might also want to consider the incredible number of new residents in the State of Florida that have never had to prepare for a storm. Florida also has a huge number of elderly residents that are not able to just jump in the car and run down to Publix, Winn Dixie, Home Depot or your favorite store and buy supplies at a moments notice.
Quoting 594. ProgressivePulse:

Fresh Map. Whatever is left will slow down and head N soon.






Perhaps she could reorganize over those warm Gulf Stream waters, perhaps she will just bring Cuba and Key West a rainy Sunday. Who knows? But from watching my fair share of storms, only Mother Nature knows what's going to truly happen next.
But now the NHC has taken away my excuse to put off that housework :-(
Nothing no indication what so ever of any circulation there

There is a wind shift in the N part likely part of the Bahamian Sfc trof as seen on 06Z chart
Not related to Erika

Quoting 589. hurricanewatcher61:

Now, does this mean Florida doesn't have to worry about all the rain now?


There will still be rain just not nearly as much



maybe a t.d by sunday morning!
Good Morning. Having trouble getting into the NHC site his morning but Yall have got it covered. I would suspect that the special advisory would dissipate the storm based on recon but go on to note the heavy rain and gusts from the system/remnants as it moves over Cuba towards Florida. A strong tropical wave nonetheless with a remote chance of reoganization north of Cuba. NHC will probably note that is highly unlikely with little time to do so before approaching the Florida Keys.
Seriously, Jim. It's dead.


invest 99L look good this morning
*packs up briefcase*

*waves goodbye*
If they rename this storm I will have lost all faith in the NHC........Not that I had much to begin with......
Quoting 605. hurricanes2018:




maybe a t.d by sunday morning!


Kidding me? That thing looks better than Erika ever did...
Quoting 586. Patrap:




Looks like you're in the western eyewall Pat. ;)

So, Erika is no more. Hmmph. I'd say regeneration is on the low side. I assume they'll (NHC) continue to mention it in their outlooks, but atm, conditions do not look ideal in the vicinity it's headed. It, along with the trough, should produce a healthy amount of precip for the SE, perhaps some squalls, but aside from that...
Quoting 611. ecflweatherfan:



Kidding me? That thing looks better than Erika ever did...
invest 99L look better then Erika right now!!
For you own safety: Don't go near the return desk at Home Depot today!
Currently a sheared/land destroyed open wave still trying to build convection back up on the NE coast of Cuba.....mmmmmmmm:


I would surely monitor for regeneration. Already signs of a mid-level circulation reforming over the supposed center. ULL is becoming diffuse as well.

Quoting 598. hurricanes2018:




look at invest 99L maybe up to 70% and 90% to at 2pm!
Quoting 599. hurricanes2018:



wow invest 99L THIS MORNING


Likely TD or TS tonight or tomorrow morning
Quoting 603. wunderkidcayman:

Nothing no indication what so ever of any circulation there

There is a wind shift in the N part likely part of the Bahamian Sfc trof as seen on 06Z chart
Not related to Erika




Think they are looking in the wrong place, anyway prepare for some much needed rain in a day or 2
10 years ago today, it all began to unfold.... One of greatest natural disasters this country has faced.
Quoting 620. GatorWX:

10 years ago today, it all began to unfold.... One of greatest natural disasters this country has faced. Ivan was worse imo
In terms of current conditions in the Florida Straits, there are no TUTT cells between the system and the Key (that would drop in additional shear or dry sinking air) but the wind shear is moderate to heavy; unless it drops between now and tomorrow, regeneration is not possible at this point.



623. tj175
Quoting 596. Camerooski:

So, I have 2 questions for you guys... 1. Will FL be in a cone again this season? 2. Will next year be an El Nino or a La Nina?



!. Maybe..... just like anyone else from Maine to Mexico can.
2. Who knows at this point
Quoting 615. tropicofcancer:

For you own safety: Don't go near the return desk at Home Depot today!


Lol, 4 days ago the word from Orlando at 10:00 at night was go out and get supplies "now".
The Tampa area doesn't need any rain, but here along the SW coast of Florida, things are mighty dry:



IOW, our rainfall is at 17% of normal for the month, 75% of normal for the summer, and 72% of normal for the year.
Hmmm. Looks to me that while convection has been flung off to the South and West that there is circulation still evident above Cuba which is regenerating. While I doubt Erika will regain hurricane status, I wouldn't be surprised at all to still see a tropical storm rebuild in Fl. straits and head inland somewhere along Fl. coast.
627. A4Guy
Special statement from NHC...Erika dissipated. All watches/warnings discontinued.

Let the wailing and teeth gnashing begin!
And STS does not usually blog on weekends but if he pops in later, he will note the El Nino conditions; actually partially correct because of the shear in the Caribbean/Florida but that is currently more a function of the approaching trof. Shear was favorable around South Florida and the Bahamas for the last several days but conditions have gone downhill as the trof approaches. Erika would have been doomed anyway if she headed west into the Gulf/trof and gotten absorbed regardless IHMO.
After our nice cool spell, the heat is about to return for real. Upper 80s to low 90s to end out August and to start September. Going to be a hot start to the month of September!
Can someone post me a working link to NHC?...........I can't get in but maybe the server is overloaded at the moment with hits............Thanks.
As soon as the TUTT gets out of the way, there may be a chance.
Now


3 hours ago


Quoting 579. IKE:

Bye bye Erika.


Agreed. Good riddance too.

Awful storm to track that didn't even bring rain to people who actually needed it.
Special Message from NHC Issued 29 Aug 2015 12:54 UTC
Erika has dissipated as a tropical cyclone. NHC will issue a Special Advisory shortly. Tropical storm watches/warnings being discontinued.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 291330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near
latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central
Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10
inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and
eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos
Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through
Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier
amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning
on Sunday.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over
portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected
to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight.
Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over
eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida
beginning on Sunday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system will
be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 632. ProgressivePulse:

As soon as the TUTT gets out of the way, there may be a chance.
Now


3 hours ago





If the shear were to drop, and a new coc formed under the convective burst to the North of Cuba, but is has increased in that region the past 24 hours and the trof should keep the shear levels up for the next 2 days.



May Erika rest in peace. Good riddance to her. I'm back on labor weekend camping mode
LOL TWC is still doing live coverage in South FLA, and are calling it "Bracing for Erika" were talking about a tropical wave with some rain...
Quoting 615. tropicofcancer:

For you own safety: Don't go near the return desk at Home Depot today!


Same Advice For Publix and Costco
Dang. See ya later, Erika.

Back to planning Labor Day weekend festivities.
Will finally note per the NHC advisory that the remnants are still booking along at 22 mph; no chance to try to re-gain TD status or stack-up at that speed unless the whole mess was able to slow back down to 10-15 mph. I think that this is physically impossible at this point because of the trof and low level steering currents that are going to bring the whole system over South Florida relatively quickly as noted.

A good end result as to South Florida which needs some rain. Was talking to the parents (in Miami) last night and they were mentioning how the Avocado tree in their back yard (and neighbors) were producing smaller ones this season. Probably related to some of the extreme heat and relatively low rain fall the past few months.
The absolute most recent latest data

That seems about correct

Been lurking the blog since 2004 and this may be the worst forecasting (and I use that word lightly) job with the TS, formerly known as Erike, I've ever experienced. They shouldn't be called forcasters...more like model interpreters. Gone are the days when weather forecasters actually used their experience and knowledge to build a forecast. Now its just, 'models say' or 'the consensus is between the 2 most reliable models', etc. Kudos to Dr. Masters...at least he gives us some insight and opinion.

Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.
Quoting
638. weathermanwannabe
1:33 PM GMT on August 29, 2015

the TUTT was always supposed to be there. Conditions were not supposed to be very favorable until it reached the central Bahamas. That part seems to still be verifying just missing an Erika.
cmc!! leftovers like going with the ul flow

Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT35 KNHC 291330
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern
Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika.
Quoting 600. AreadersinceWilma:




"Am I reading the info incorrectly?"

Yes you are. In my opinion, the last thing that the West coast and Central Florida need is more rain. What caused the catastrophe in Dominica? Rain. Why? probably because according to the best available information no warnings of any type were issued.
You might also want to consider the incredible number of new residents in the State of Florida that have never had to prepare for a storm. Florida also has a huge number of elderly residents that are not able to just jump in the car and run down to Publix, Winn Dixie, Home Depot or your favorite store and buy supplies at a moments notice.


I agree with you 100%. As a member of the disaster relief community, we learned that the last 10 years Florida has increased its population of people who have never experienced a storm. It is always better to be overly cautious then under prepared. Even now, though Erika has dissipated, the threat for flooding is real.
Quoting 626. congaline:

Hmmm. Looks to me that while convection has been flung off to the South and West that there is circulation still evident above Cuba which is regenerating. While I doubt Erika will regain hurricane status, I wouldn't be surprised at all to still see a tropical storm rebuild in Fl. straits and head inland somewhere along Fl. coast.

Doubtful
Unbeleivable: No rain from Erika here in St marteen,st barth's and anguilla. What's happening? No decent rain here since december 2014! it's becoming critical!
HH still out there.
655. BlxMS
Quoting 621. Accu35blog:




Says tons about the objectivity of your opinions...but will attribute that to naivete. Objectively, your statement is absurd...with all due respect
TC Kilo. Honolulu Advanced Dvorak mentioning a pinhole eye.

2015AUG29 130000 4.6 975.5 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.3 MW ON OFF OFF -24.28 -73.75 EYE/P -99 IR 41.5 17.85 174.04
Quoting 596. Camerooski:

So, I have 2 questions for you guys... 1. Will FL be in a cone again this season? 2. Will next year be an El Nino or a La Nina?

My opinion.......1. No. 2. Neutral. I'm looking forward to a potentially more active Atlantic season next year. This drought can only last so long.
658. IKE
I have to admit the NHC did a poor job with Erika. And the models....GFDL/HWRF, etc.....not worth looking at.
659. MahFL
Convection is already building on the remnant circulation.
Quoting 656. HadesGodWyvern:

TC Kilo. Honolulu Advanced Dvorak mentioning a pinhole eye.

2015AUG29 130000 4.6 975.5 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.3 MW ON OFF OFF -24.28 -73.75 EYE/P -99 IR 41.5 17.85 174.04

At long last, Kilo is reaching its potential. I don't think it has a pinhole eye, just looks that way as it clears out the whole eye. Given how deep the surrounding convection is, if it does clear out the whole eye, Cat 4 status is easily obtainable. What a journey it's had, and it'll likely be around for at least another week.

Quoting 651. RevInFL:



I agree with you 100%. As a member of the disaster relief community, we learned that the last 10 years Florida has increased its population of people who have never experienced a storm. It is always better to be overly cautious then under prepared. Even now, though Erika has dissipated, the threat for flooding is real.



It is not the new people that have moved to Florida you have to worry about, they will listen. It is the natives and the older generations that have been through several misses of Hurricanes. I went through Charley in 2004 and lived less than a mile from the Gulf in Pinellas County. That area is the worst prone disaster area in Florida. Most would never leave now and that is real bad.
"This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs." LOL
Quoting 70. OracleDeAtlantis:

General Erika's amphibious assault in the GOM could be a very nasty surprise.

Considering how she defies all efforts to track her, perhaps a closer look at my official forecast that I published on August 1, 2015 is not without merit.

Especially considering that both Hawaii and the mainland are under threat at the same time.

Here's your link.




Some of you wishcasters just never give up.....
It appears in the last few frames that X has taken on a steeper angle WNW, closer to NW. Which has to happen sooner or later.

Quoting 658. IKE:

I have to admit the NHC did a poor job with Erika. And the models....GFDL/HWRF, etc.....not worth looking at.

I think we all did Ike I mean this storm fooled everyone!
668. Mikla
I see that Erika went poof. Impacted by El Niño wind shear, continuously fighting dry air and finally the terrain. This will probably be the case with any future CV storms this year... the wall of wind shear will be tough to break through.
Quoting 660. SFLWeatherman:




I see what was begging mentioned earlier, there does appear to be some rotation. However, I as well as the majority of the bloggers have been wrong with this system. So instead of me stating anything about this confusing storm, I'll just let everyone else see what I may see.
000
WTNT45 KNHC 291331
TCDAT5

REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika
has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of
the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of
near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and
these conditions will likely continue through at least this
afternoon.

The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the
northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24
hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.
After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear
could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and
there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of
regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread
across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during
the next couple of days.

This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.
Additional information
can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast
office products issued by the National Weather Service.
Quoting 656. HadesGodWyvern:

TC Kilo. Honolulu Advanced Dvorak mentioning a pinhole eye.

2015AUG29 130000 4.6 975.5 79.6 4.6 4.6 6.3 MW ON OFF OFF -24.28 -73.75 EYE/P -99 IR 41.5 17.85 174.04


Kilo will likely become a potent Super Typhoon as it crosses the International Date Line.





Quoting 663. forecaster1:

"This will be the last advisory on this system by the National
Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs." LOL


Oh I'm sure some on here will have it as a CAT 5 before it hits the Cayman Islands.
Quoting 658. IKE:

I have to admit the NHC did a poor job with Erika. And the models....GFDL/HWRF, etc.....not worth looking at.

Yeah, I couldn't blame the FL public for feeling duped. It was a very hard forecast, but the NHC just never had a good handle on it. The 24 hour position errors have been embarrassing. Definitely some model hugging. All you had to do was look at satellite to see it was going west, and west was a guaranteed death sentence.

And like you said, as for the models, almost all useless. GFDL shouldn't even be run anymore.
Quoting 662. frank727:



It is not the new people that have moved to Florida you have to worry about, they will listen. It is the natives and the older generations that have been through several misses of Hurricanes. I went through Charley in 2004 and lived less than a mile from the Gulf in Pinellas County. That area is the worst prone disaster area in Florida. Most would never leave now and that is real bad.

I think the inexperience of the newcomers/visitors and the complacency and forgetfulness that comes with going 10 years without a hurricane is a problem for Florida, but not sure it's avoidable. You can try to educate, but people are stubborn
Quoting 672. Kevin06231960:



Oh I'm sure some on here will have it as a CAT 5 before it hits the Cayman Islands.


That's crazy. I could see a high end Cat 4 at the most. :)
Quoting 667. sporteguy03:


I think we all did Ike I mean this storm fooled everyone!


She was laughing at the "Southern Camp" as she was walking out the door.
The blog has dissipated as well.
The threat of the remnants of Erika is still very real folks. Folks in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Bahamas need to still keep watch on it, the storms already building convection. It's not going to become anything dangerous wind wise, but with conditions aloft favorable to a low a lot of rain, keep an eye on Erika, if she starts building up a lot of convection and rain, I'd say the region it's currently in, is in for quite a wet weekend.
Quoting 677. BobinTampa:

The blog has dissipated as well.

That could regenerate in 36 hours in the Gulf of Mexico.
This will regenerate by 5pm today
Quoting 678. ElConando:

The threat of the remnants of Erika is still very real folks. Folks in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Bahamas need to still keep watch on it, the storms already building convection. It's not going to become anything dangerous wind wise, but with conditions aloft favorable to a low a lot of rain, keep an eye on Erika, if she starts building up a lot of convection and rain, I'd say the region it's currently in, is in for quite a wet weekend.
Good morning Conan..Yes, still have to watch it. Glad it weakened to a wave.

Lower convergence settled over the Windward Passage, for what it's worth.
Tropical Rain Storm. So says Accuweather. Didn't know there was such a classification.
The threat of the remnants of Erika is still very real folks. Folks in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the Bahamas need to still keep watch on it, the storms already building convection. It's not going to become anything dangerous wind wise, but with conditions aloft favorable to a low a lot of rain, keep an eye on Erika, if she starts building up a lot of convection and rain, I'd say the region it's currently in, is in for quite a wet weekend.


i would think the bahamas are safe .....as for rain.....well......according to the cpc......just like erika...they've dissipated too


35.7 knots (~ 41.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


still has some winds
Quoting 681. ProgressivePulse:

22.533N 75.850W
1007.2 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg)

That's not valid, they were rapidly ascending. Heading home.

hmmmm
Quoting 681. ProgressivePulse:

22.533N 75.850W
1007.2 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg)

Why? I thought it was 1010
Quoting 658. IKE:

I have to admit the NHC did a poor job with Erika. And the models....GFDL/HWRF, etc.....not worth looking at.

Quoting 667. sporteguy03:

I think we all did Ike I mean this storm fooled everyone!


Well I guess we gotta remember that the models have to be programed by somebody, and they probably contract it out to the lowest bidder as usual. You can only expect so much of a 14 year old Pakistani kid, so give him a break.
So here's my two cents...

First, technically I think Erika has been an open wave for the past 36 hrs or so. Officially she was declassified this morning. There isn't anything wrong with this, it is just an inherent difference between "official" and "technical". As I said before, the NHC has lots of considerations when classifying or declassifying, and they aren't just scientific.

As for the frustration with the forecasting, I'm not sure it is warranted. Part of the problem is that we don't start getting really good upper air data until storms are at or past the Antilles. So the models are trying to forecast a turn (the hardest part of the forecast next to intensity), and they just don't have the data to do it accurately every time. Once they started getting this data they started showing a weaker Erika which moved further W. I made a comment several days ago that anywhere from Brownsville to Bermuda was a possibility. This wasn't any sort of grand insight in to Erika, it was just what I've come to accept when storms are E of PR. As the move W of there, the models get more reliable because there is more upper air data collection. So before you get too frustrated with the NHC, models, or other forecasts...Keep in mind the scale of what they are trying to do and the budget they are trying to do it on. If we had drones cruising the Atl constantly at lower, mid, and upper levels...I think you'd find the models much more accurate for systems in the CATL.

As for Ex-Erika's future, regen is an outside chance and predicting it accurately will be next to impossible. Just have to watch and see. Her best bet would be to hang a hard right and head towards the lower shear. I don't think she has the strength to make that move though. Most likely she heads through the straits and then curves N. Shear will still be an issue and getting absorbed by the trough will also be an issue.
Quoting 673. MAweatherboy1:


Yeah, I couldn't blame the FL public for feeling duped. It was a very hard forecast, but the NHC just never had a good handle on it. The 24 hour position errors have been embarrassing. Definitely some model hugging. All you had to do was look at satellite to see it was going west, and west was a guaranteed death sentence.

And like you said, as for the models, almost all useless. GFDL shouldn't even be run anymore.
I said yesterday a system and track like Erika the models are about worthless. As far as the NHC, they have a responsibility some cannot comprehend, and not just here in the U.S. The storm has killed at least 20 people. Model hugging or not, they are, in my opinion, doing the job well. If they underestimate a system they get blasted a thousandfold for not acting.
Quoting 692. sporteguy03:


Why? I thought it was 1010


Didn't catch the ascend in prior readings.
I hope Erikas remnants at the very least gives some beneficial rains for South Florida, which is still in drought conditions especially over the everglades.
698. FOREX
Quoting 680. MeteorologistTV:

This will regenerate by 5pm today
Please give valid reasons for your statement, thanks.
Quoting 691. Chicklit:


hmmmm


76.2W 22N
I said yesterday a system and track like Erika the models are about worthless. As far as the NHC, they have a responsibility some cannot comprehend, and not just here in the U.S. The storm has killed at least 20 people. Model hugging or not, they are, in my opinion, doing the job well. If they underestimate a system they get blasted a thousandfold for not acting.

i couldn't agree with you more...one of the big things is.....this blog...or rather...the people that post here....know little more than the models web addresses....and fail to realize a forecast made by the NHC is more than just following a model run.....compound that with no one actually reads the NHC discussion where they give their reasoning for their forecast...and they give percentages...and they also give alternate possibilities.....

in short...it's a forecast....not a promise
Quoting 674. Cerendipy:


I think the inexperience of the newcomers/visitors and the complacency and forgetfulness that comes with going 10 years without a hurricane is a problem for Florida, but not sure it's avoidable. You can try to educate, but people are stubborn


I agree but it takes money to evacuate and in this economy it only makes matters worst. I always prepared in the midst of laughter and sometimes ridicule from friends and family. I unfortunately went through several weather disasters in my live and saw the aftermath and loss of many. I am forever scared with horrific memories that always surface more at this time of year. It is only a matter of time and that one event will take many lives from ignorance or just the lack of common sense.
Cape Verde Islands maybe a tropical storm watches if invest 99L WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON!! i never saw that happern before
704. FOREX
Quoting 680. MeteorologistTV:

This will regenerate by 5pm today
The coc, if it still can be called that is way out ahead of the thunderstorms you see blowing up behind it.
Quoting 699. FIUStormChaser:



76.2W 22N


Anyone else see what I see?
How likely is it for Erika to regain tropical storm strength?
Quoting 658. IKE:

I have to admit the NHC did a poor job with Erika. And the models....GFDL/HWRF, etc.....not worth looking at.


Nice to see you back Ike; I am currently East of you in Quincy. NHC uses the best models available and the human part is taken out of the equation but the models often usually perform best with well developed storms where you can accurately predict how they will react to the big level synoptic features that govern hurricane dynamics (ridges, steering flow, shear, Tutts, trofs, and ssts).

With any small and struggling storm, compounded by land interaction issues, the models have a tough time predicting the ultimate outcome. Improvements have been made with the models over the years in terms of resolution issues, and land interaction issues, but these types of systems will always present a challenge. I was saying the past few days to throw out all the models until after the system got north of Hispanola/Cuba (if it survived) because most of the model runs we have been looking at recently, including the NHC consensus tracks, "continued" Erika as a tropical storm downstream, Once a storm is struggling with organization, that throws a major monkey wrench in the modelling process.

As such, I would not call this a forecasting/model/NHC failure, but an illustration of how difficult these type of systems can be. In terms of the models that predicted break-up over Cuba and/or Hispanola, they were ultimately correct but in reality, it turned out to be educated coin-flip.
She might come back. Be careful with Erika, a mean, killer storm. Destroyed Dominica, causing more than 30 death. Like if she knew, that we in Puerto Rico were begging for rain, she manages to pull all her convection to the south of Puerto Rico, until she passed south of the island, given us only the winds, which caused some damages. Then knowing that is very dangerous for the DR and Haiti, she gave them all the rain, causing another disaster. Now she is dying, but who knows,...


maybe a cat 5 hurricane soon
Quoting 694. StormJunkie:

So here's my two cents...

First, technically I think Erika has been an open wave for the past 36 hrs or so. Officially she was declassified this morning. There isn't anything wrong with this, it is just an inherent difference between "official" and "technical". As I said before, the NHC has lots of considerations when classifying or declassifying, and they aren't just scientific.

As for the frustration with the forecasting, I'm not sure it is warranted. Part of the problem is that we don't start getting really good upper air data until storms are at or past the Antilles. So the models are trying to forecast a turn (the hardest part of the forecast next to intensity), and they just don't have the data to do it accurately every time. Once they started getting this data they started showing a weaker Erika which moved further W. I made a comment several days ago that anywhere from Brownsville to Bermuda was a possibility. This wasn't any sort of grand insight in to Erika, it was just what I've come to accept when storms are E of PR. As the move W of there, the models get more reliable because there is more upper air data collection. So before you get too frustrated with the NHC, models, or other forecasts...Keep in mind the scale of what they are trying to do and the budget they are trying to do it on. If we had drones cruising the Atl constantly at lower, mid, and upper levels...I think you'd find the models much more accurate for systems in the CATL.

As for Ex-Erika's future, regen is an outside chance and predicting it accurately will be next to impossible. Just have to watch and see. Her best bet would be to hang a hard right and head towards the lower shear. I don't think she has the strength to make that move though. Most likely she heads through the straits and then curves N. Shear will still be an issue and getting absorbed by the trough will also be an issue.


So true. One of the best posts I've seen here in over a week. So I will have remnantcam up on Monday afternoon here in Cape Coral LOL
Recon finds nothing and going home

I bet if they flew on Cuba S coast they would of found something a bit more interesting
Quoting 691. Chicklit:


hmmmm

That looks like a llc north of the Cuba coast. Not much of one granted, but one none the less.

fascinating. for the record, nhc is saying it has possibility of regeneration in the GOM but in its present statehas degenerated into a trough of low pressure


here we go again



Hurricane JIMENA Max sustained: 150 mph maybe winds 160 mph soon
Quoting 700. ricderr:

I said yesterday a system and track like Erika the models are about worthless. As far as the NHC, they have a responsibility some cannot comprehend, and not just here in the U.S. The storm has killed at least 20 people. Model hugging or not, they are, in my opinion, doing the job well. If they underestimate a system they get blasted a thousandfold for not acting.i couldn't agree with you more...one of the big things is.....this blog...or rather...the people that post here....know little more than the models web addresses....and fail to realize a forecast made by the NHC is more than just following a model run.....compound that with no one actually reads the NHC discussion where they give their reasoning for their forecast...and they give percentages...and they also give alternate possibilities.....

in short...it's a forecast....not a promise
Right on..I wish once in a while the people saying they did a poor job would put themselves in their shoes so to speak. Tropical weather can be one of the most difficult to forecast, and when lives and billions of dollars are at risk, the stress must be unimaginable.
Remnant Erika will have lower shear in its path at noon Sunday. It needs to slow down though to take advantage of it. Otherwise it will keep running into more shear.
I think we're looking at a non-event for the US now. Hopefully the impacts on the islands is limited too.

As far as people saying the NHC did a "bad job" just remember what we're asking them to do.

Hey NHC - I know we expect you to predict the future, but this time you didn't get it right. Tough crowd. :-D
Quoting 703. hurricanes2018:

Cape Verde Islands maybe a tropical storm watches if invest 99L WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON!! i never saw that happern before
If models are correct this time, with 99L, she will be moving west, in a few days, so lets keep our eyes open,,,, a significant storm seems to be developing....
719. FOREX
Quoting 705. FIUStormChaser:



Anyone else see what I see?
no.
Quoting 705. FIUStormChaser:



Anyone else see what I see?


I see an S. Not sure if those are surface winds but just recently can make out some westerly flow heading into the swirl.
Quoting 691. Chicklit:


hmmmm



I looked at the shear maps for Sunday at noon. There's a gap in the shear but not a big one. I don't think Erika is coming back. And the shear over the northeast Gulf of Mexico looks really bad.

HWRF



GFDL



Let's go, Fred. Let's crank it up. Just like Jimena. And then the models can bust your forecast as well. ;)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ERIKA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH IS THIS
WEEKEND AND BASED UPON LATEST FORECASTS AND IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG MIAMI BEACH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

12Z RAOB SHOWED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AT 6.6C/KM AND H5 TEMP OF
-7.4C. BOTH ARE MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. THUS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND, POPS SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS THE OPEN WAVE WHICH WAS ONCE ERIKA MOVES
CLOSER.
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20150829 1200 12.4 125.0 T6.5/6.5 13E JIMENA
20150829 0600 12.2 124.4 T6.0/6.0 13E JIMENA
20150829 0000 12.3 123.6 T5.5/5.5 13E JIMENA
20150828 1800 12.3 122.6 T4.5/4.5 13E JIMENA
Quoting 720. ProgressivePulse:



I see an S. Not sure if those are surface winds but just recently can make out some westerly flow heading into the swirl.



Maybe we will have a yellow X at 2:00 pm. :)
We've had an infusion of new blood in the hurricane specialist unit during the past few years. Do you see in them a little bit of what you went through?

Oh yes. Some of them are really excited just like me. They think they know how to forecast and come in very "pompous". But everyone will learn, or have already learned, that it's not that simple. When I finished fresh from school, I thought I was going to solve all of the problems, be able to predict intensity, be able to do everything. But as soon as you put your name on that forecast, you become very humble. And that's good. I am glad people are coming with a lot of enthusiasm, and they bring new ideas and new techniques.


Lixion Avila
Quoting 720. ProgressivePulse:



I see an S. Not sure if those are surface winds but just recently can make out some westerly flow heading into the swirl.



Storms appear to be firing to the SE of the suspect area
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 711. wunderkidcayman:

Recon finds nothing and going home

I bet if they flew on Cuba S coast they would of found something a bit more interesting


Keep wishcasting wkc. There are no signs of a closed circulation south of Cuba
Quoting 645. shmdaddy:

Been lurking the blog since 2004 and this may be the worst forecasting (and I use that word lightly) job with the TS, formerly known as Erike, I've ever experienced. They shouldn't be called forcasters...more like model interpreters. Gone are the days when weather forecasters actually used their experience and knowledge to build a forecast. Now its just, 'models say' or 'the consensus is between the 2 most reliable models', etc. Kudos to Dr. Masters...at least he gives us some insight and opinion.


Can you name forecasters who do not "actually use experience and knowledge" or are you just spouting off because you chose to ignore that Erika not surviving was always a distinct possibility. I had no problem hearing that on WUTV or reading it on Steve Gregory's blog or Dr. Master's blog.
This blog on the 27th:
However, the unrelenting wind shear will actually intensify from Thursday into Friday, according to several models. Erika has a fairly large, well-structured circulation that should give it a fighting chance, although it’s still possible that the storm will degenerate into an open wave by the weekend.


Steve Gregory's blog on the 26th:
Wind shear over 20Kts is impacting the storm – and is likely to continue for the next 2 to 3 days - and could prove to be too strong for ERIKA to survive


I know everyone wants to hear more definitive forecasts, but with so many variables it pays to read the entire blog entry or listen to the details of the forecasts instead of just looking at a cone and/or model run.
Quoting 672. Kevin06231960:



Oh I'm sure some on here will have it as a CAT 5 before it hits the Cayman Islands.


Yeah that you be you of course

Lol
Quoting 685. kimoskee:

Tropical Rain Storm. So says Accuweather. Didn't know there was such a classification.


As far as I'm aware there isn't

Tropical Wave--easterly wave
Tropical Disturbance-- disorganised area of T-Storms
Tropical Low-- trof of low pressure, open low, closed low
Tropical Depression-- organised closed low wind above 30mph below 40mph
Tropical Storm-- weak(40-45mph), moderate(50-60mph), strong(65-74mph)
Hurricane--Cat 1, Cat 2, Cat 3, Cat 4, Cat 5

Quoting 703. hurricanes2018:

Cape Verde Islands maybe a tropical storm watches if invest 99L WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM SOON!! i never saw that happern before


By the looks of it maybe

Quoting 717. FLWxChaser:

I think we're looking at a non-event for the US now. Hopefully the impacts on the islands is limited too.

As far as people saying the NHC did a "bad job" just remember what we're asking them to do.

Hey NHC - I know we expect you to predict the future, but this time you didn't get it right. Tough crowd. :-D
That's really a mischaracterization.  It's more like "hey NHC you have some of the greatest minds, some of the most sophisticated tools known to man an incredible budget and this is the result?"
That will be the public perception.
Some models have invest 99-L moving NW and then turning more West. Something new to watch maybe?
Dr. Avila is probably the best hurricane forecaster at NHC based upon his years of experience, off-season presentations and research papers, mentoring of the younger mets, and an understanding of the "human" element to forecasting (whatever if left of it). We have all been humbled by some of his honest discussions in past years when he has acknowledged, literally, that the models are saying one thing and I am seeing something else; and completely perplexed at the moment. A great example for all tropical forecasters.
736. FOREX
Quoting 726. GeoffreyWPB:



Maybe we will have a yellow X at 2:00 pm. :)
no.
I don't expect the NHC to be perfect and storms are unpredictable, that's the beauty of it, however I think the cone with the line needs to be reconsidered, get rid of the line, keep it a cone or better yet a circle that moves in 3 day increments only. As for how they did with Erika, my biggest problem with them was when they shifted the cone east, while it was fairly obvious to the very lightly educated to charts, that the high wasn't going to allow such movement.

back to lurking and watching the tropics, so glad I don't have to spend today packing up yard stuff and putting up shutters. We will take your rain In south Florida Erika, just stop raining on Haiti please!
Well Erika is gone i guess. But i will keep a eye on the reformation near cuba if that was to happen. I will not return everything to home depot yet. Im sure this will not be the last time this year Fl will be targeted by a storm.

Not a pro met.. just a citizen
X-Erika is where I expected her 4 days ago..except I didn't expect her to go thru the southern part of the Dom Republic to get there. I expected a SW part of PR or Mono Passage and brush the north coast of DR and Haiti. I did expect her to to be downgraded if she went more of DR or stay a weak TS till tonight. Didn't want to say if she would be a hurricane by monday off Florida cause that was past my 5 day outlook and wanted to see the DR interaction. Shear kept her from becoming to organized and she kept moving more west than expected on Friday.

Now the future... models will adjust to where most saw her 1-2 days ago, just north of Cuba. GFDL might be kinda right with organization this time...but I won't forecast a GFDL Model that has been 100% wrong this whole time and with Danny. Shear will affect X-Erika till she moves more north Sunday night into Monday but will won't be as much as a factor. We can't forget the 28-30C waters in the straits and off the west coast of Florida..thus there is a 60% chance this will again be TS Erika by Monday morning. Her path should take her WNW to NW thru the southern Keys and 100 miles offshore Naples by Monday morning. How much strengthening that occurs will depend on her structure during the next day.. Right now she's a weak swirl of low pressure. Later tonight she should start to be better organized as she moves over 28C waters and more moisture in the air... only inhibiter will be shear until sunday night.
Quoting 726. GeoffreyWPB:



Maybe we will have a yellow X at 2:00 pm. :)

LOL maybe
Quoting 730. Bucsboltsfan:



Keep wishcasting wkc. There are no signs of a closed circulation south of Cuba


I'm not wishcasting and yes the is signs of a circulation S of Cuba based on Sfc obs the only thing missing is the W winds so almost closed
Quoting 741. wunderkidcayman:



I'm not wishcasting and yes the is signs of a circulation S of Cuba based on Sfc obs the only thing missing is the W winds so almost closed


There is nothing down there WK... head to the beach!

Quoting 700. ricderr:

I said yesterday a system and track like Erika the models are about worthless. As far as the NHC, they have a responsibility some cannot comprehend, and not just here in the U.S. The storm has killed at least 20 people. Model hugging or not, they are, in my opinion, doing the job well. If they underestimate a system they get blasted a thousandfold for not acting.

i couldn't agree with you more...one of the big things is.....this blog...or rather...the people that post here....know little more than the models web addresses....and fail to realize a forecast made by the NHC is more than just following a model run.....compound that with no one actually reads the NHC discussion where they give their reasoning for their forecast...and they give percentages...and they also give alternate possibilities.....

in short...it's a forecast....not a promise
Also the NHC was saying all along  that they did not have a high confidence in their forecast. You are exactly right about people not reading the discussion.  They were honest all along about the fact this storm was very hard to forecast . Their decision last night to hold off on warning for south Florida was wise. IMHO the NHC once again did a very good job serving the people .

Quoting 705. FIUStormChaser:



Anyone else see what I see?
Ive been watching that this morn.
Quoting 744. floridaT:


Ive been watching that this morn.


EVERYONE, GO TO MIKES WEATHER PAGE ON FACEBOOK AND READ HIS LATEST POST AND THE COMMENTS. POSSIBLE REGENERATION AND SOME SAY THEY SEE A NEW CENTER OF CIRCULATION FORMING.
Ignore this comment, it isnt working. Was going to put the NHC discussion

Erika may be dead, but she is pulling up some convection to the NW now.
This is interesting. Regeneration?
Quoting 743. floridaT:


Also the NHC was saying all along  that they did not have a high confidence in their forecast. You are exactly right about people not reading the discussion.  They were honest all along about the fact this storm was very hard to forecast . Their decision last night to hold off on warning for south Florida was wise. IMHO the NHC once again did a very good job serving the people .



The NHC has to be right all the time. A blogger here doesn't.

I think the NHC did the best they could with the information they had. Yes, the models (all of them) had a busted Erika forecast. And yes, the NHC did say multiple times this was a LOW confidence track and intensity forecast.

EVERYONE living in hurricane prone areas should have a hurricane plan and supplies. All that you should be doing is topping off the consumables, which if it turns out you didn't need them for a storm you just use up again. LIke stockpiling regular fuel for a generator. DIdn't or don't need it, now dump it in the car.... Better to be over prepared than under prepared. I am happy to prepare and have nothing happen...
Hey yall..

X on ex Erika..

hmmmm...Wonder who saw that coming?
18z Navgem run..

last frame..quiet..I think not..