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Erika steadily weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:43 PM GMT on September 03, 2009

Tropical Storm Erika has weakened steadily this afternoon, and has not generated any sustained winds of tropical storm force (39 mph) at any weather stations in the Lesser Antilles Islands today, according to our wundermap for the region. Erika has dumped some heavy rain on the islands, with 8.03" of rain measured on Dominica over the past two days. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm now, and have thus far found top winds of 36 mph at the surface and at their flight level of 1000 feet. Radar animations out of Martinique show that the areal coverage and intensity of rain echoes has diminished greatly since this morning, and IR satellite loops also show a major decrease in heavy thunderstorm activity. Visible satellite images (Figure 1) show that the low-level center has become exposed to view, and there is very little heavy thunderstorm activity near Erika's center. Erika is probably just a tropical depression now.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Erika showing the exposed swirl of its low-level center southeast of Puerto Rico.

The forecast for Erika
Erika is headed west, in defiance of most of the computer models that predicted a northwest or west-northwest track. Regardless, Erika's track will take the storm into a band of significantly higher wind shear of 25 - 35 knots, Friday through Saturday. Considering that Erika is steadily weakening and is barely alive now, the storm should dissipate by Saturday, and perhaps much sooner. Erika's remains will still be capable of dumping very heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches over the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and 1 - 3 inches over Haiti and the Southeast Bahamas over the next few days. However, the recent decrease of Erika's heavy thunderstorms makes lower rainfall totals more probable. By Monday, when the remains of Erika should have penetrated through the band of high wind shear over the Greater Antilles, shear may fall low enough to allow redevelopment. This is a scenario offered by the NOGAPS and GFS models. The other models predict quite a bit more shear in the region, and I believe any redevelopment of Erika early next week is unlikely. The GFDL and HWRF models continue to insist that Erika will head northwest, brush off the high shear, and intensify into a Category 2 hurricane five days from now.

McAfee virus alert messages
A number of wunderground users with the McAfee virus protection software installed were alerted yesterday that a possible Trojan virus existed on our web pages. After an investigation of the issue, we have determined that this is a false alarm. It appears McAfee updated their virus files yesterday, and included in their list of suspected viruses JavaScript web pages that compressed using the packer compression system used by wunderground. We've changed the compression technique used on our web pages, and hopefully this will eliminate the bogus McAfee alert messages.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
A large, strong tropical wave with plenty of spin emerged from the coast of Africa this morning. The wave is not yet generating much in the way of heavy thunderstorms, but has the potential to gradually develop into a tropical depression by early next week. NHC is giving this wave a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. The GFS model continues to predict development of this wave into a tropical depression early next week.

I'll have an update Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. LUCARIO
ITS NOT OVER TIL THE FAT WEATHER LADY SINGS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Atlantic_hurricane_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season


THERE Will be a monster out THERE

in the name of FRED OR GRACE


Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like the MLC, though impressive yesterday afternoon, fizzled instead of refiring some convection like I thought.

Wasn't the first time that Erika has surprised me I suppose...


Shear is horrendous across much of the Gulf and the Caribbean and shouldn't allow ANY development there at least throught he weekend.

The wave near the Cape Verdes is ingesting some serious dry air. Very nice, broad rotation and banding with it...but this dry environment is really detrimental - as we saw with Erika!
wow i know wind shear is over former erika but she's still going good possibly better than the cv wave imo
"guys you have to have the right set up in the gulf too get any thing biger the a cat 1 or 2 storm and with the cold fronts in the gulf and the higher wind shear and with cool AMs on the gulf coast its un likey it will get any stronger the 30mph

hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast"


As much as I wish it was over, unfortunately it's not over til November.
Quoting IKE:
The GOM may have something in the next 4-5 days. It ain't over in the GOM or anywhere else in the Atlantic basin.
Ike, Whats got you thinking this about GOM?
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
this dry environment is really detrimental - as we saw with Erika!


And look at where she is... knocking on my doorstep. Actually, I think she's in the living room.
"Ike, Whats got you thinking this about GOM?"

CMC picks up and develops a trough split in the W GOMEX. Developes it and brings it in around the AL/FL line in about 4-5 days.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Good Morning Everyone!

Looks like the MLC, though impressive yesterday afternoon, fizzled instead of refiring some convection like I thought.

Wasn't the first time that Erika has surprised me I suppose...


Shear is horrendous across much of the Gulf and the Caribbean and shouldn't allow ANY development there at least throught he weekend.

The wave near the Cape Verdes is ingesting some serious dry air. Very nice, broad rotation and banding with it...but this dry environment is really detrimental - as we saw with Erika!


Good morning OSU..For the past few nights, whatever Erika has gained overnight she's lost that and more during the day.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Ike, Whats got you thinking this about GOM?"

CMC picks up and develops a trough split in the W GOMEX. Developes it and brings it in around the AL/FL line in about 4-5 days.
How developed?
Quoting LUCARIO:
ITS NOT OVER TIL THE FAT WEATHER LADY SINGS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Atlantic_hurricane_season

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season


THERE Will be a monster out THERE

in the name of FRED OR GRACE




How new are you, 15yrs?
1513. LUCARIO
SEE

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1988_Atlantic_hurricane_season

this season just got started

gilbert = fred


exept fred goes north and you know, i fear it will hit the big state.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Good morning OSU..For the past few nights, whatever Erika has gained overnight she's lost that and more during the day.


That sounds great from a weight standpoint lol

Maybe not healthy, but...
Quoting stormsurge39:
Ike, Whats got you thinking this about GOM?


Check the swirl south of AL/Fla panhandle.
Quoting iluvjess:
"guys you have to have the right set up in the gulf too get any thing biger the a cat 1 or 2 storm and with the cold fronts in the gulf and the higher wind shear and with cool AMs on the gulf coast its un likey it will get any stronger the 30mph

hurricane season is overe for the gulf coast"


As much as I wish it was over, unfortunately it's not over til November.

That could mean a storm in mid to late september. Georges did not make landfall in Moss Point, MS until 9/27/98.
"How developed?"

I have not looked at it since last night but if I remember it correctly maybe a strong TS or weak H.
Long time lurker first time poster.
Here is how i see it.
Nice convention.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Ike, Whats got you thinking this about GOM?"

CMC picks up and develops a trough split in the W GOMEX. Developes it and brings it in around the AL/FL line in about 4-5 days.


The GFS also is picking up on it, developing it with more intensity and bringing it to Louisiana.
In general, subsidence and dry air has lead to instability being below normal in the tropical atlantic and MDR.

Quoting serialteg:


That sounds great from a weight standpoint lol

Maybe not healthy, but...


The Jenny Craig diet for canes?
Quoting iluvjess:
"How developed?"

I have not looked at it since last night but if I remember it correctly maybe a strong TS or weak H.
Thanks, If Erika hangs around like shes been doing, when is the shear suppossed to drop in the area ,for possible further developement?
Shear hasn't been variable in the Caribbean, but not necessarily above normal yet which is what we would expect with an El Nino. Models suggest that the very recent spike of high shear may be sustained for at least a week...

EDIT: Should have specified WESTERN Caribbean. The Eastern Caribbean hasn't seen as much variability or a recent upswing...

Intensity is hard to forecast. Definately an area to monitor as we go through the weekend. If it does spin up it should definately head NE. Strength will be determined by upper level enviorment and shear at that time.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Check the swirl south of AL/Fla panhandle.

There is a low pressure just south of the panhandle drifing west that will enhance showers and thunderstorms on sunday from Mobile, AL to New Orleans, LA. NOAA
Quoting cajunmoma:


The GFS also is picking up on it, developing it with more intensity and bringing it to Louisiana.
TX/LA or LA/MS?
Quoting serialteg:


And look at where she is... knocking on my doorstep. Actually, I think she's in the living room.


Ha Ha. So you got your dustbuster out then?
Quoting apocalyps:
Long time lurker first time poster.
Here is how i see it.
Nice convention.


You probly do it on purpose, but you do know there is no convention going on in the middle of the Caribbean ocean... that I know of.

Convection (like your oven), yes maybe.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
Quoting btwntx08:
wow i know wind shear is over former erika but she's still going good possibly better than the cv wave imo

i agree. once again the night proved good for her. she blew up convection last night i see and now she is calming down a bit, but lets see if she can hold on till tonight. then maybe she will blow up again.
1532. LUCARIO
Quoting stormsurge39:
TX/LA or LA/MS?


it will go to texas

everything goes to texas

2007
humberto
Erin
Dean(almost did)

2008
dolly
ike
edward

so, don't see why it won't go to texas

texas is the real hurricane alley
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, If Erika hangs around like shes been doing, when is the shear suppossed to drop in the area ,for possible further developement?

When is she supposed to make what the NHC says what looks like a 90 degree turn?
Quoting stormsurge39:
TX/LA or LA/MS?


TX/LA Link
Erika is the queen of convention.
What a nice convention.
Impressive.
Quoting OSUWXGUY:


Ha Ha. So you got your dustbuster out then?


More likely a mop. Don't know if those heavy rains will come up on PR at all, but wind is blowing E down there in the Carib low level.
Quoting mobilegirl81:

There is a low pressure just south of the panhandle drifing west that will enhance showers and thunderstorms on sunday from Mobile, AL to New Orleans, LA. NOAA


Thank's. I haven't looked into it except visual satellite observation. I saw someone else mention development in Gulf and assumed they were referring that.
Quoting mobilegirl81:

When is she supposed to make what the NHC says what looks like a 90 degree turn?


If I recall correctly, ever since it was named...
Quoting sarahjola:

i agree. once again the night proved good for her. she blew up convection last night i see and now she is calming down a bit, but lets see if she can hold on till tonight. then maybe she will blow up again.
I think she will keep blowing up at night to survive, until the enviroment gets right for developement.
1540. JamesSA
--> 1530 That looks surprisingly alive still for a dissipated storm. Is that current?
Quoting OSUWXGUY:
Shear hasn't been variable in the Caribbean, but not necessarily above normal yet which is what we would expect with an El Nino. Models suggest that the very recent spike of high shear may be sustained for at least a week...

EDIT: Should have specified WESTERN Caribbean. The Eastern Caribbean hasn't seen as much variability or a recent upswing...



Where Erika is, currently:



Spikes are up, up and up.
cajunmoma
can you post a link to that gfs model please. thanks in advance
Erika has had more swirls than a convention of Dervishes.
One thing we have learned this hurricane season is we still have a lot to learn
Quoting serialteg:


If I recall correctly, ever since it was named...


LOL..Good answer.
Quoting cajunmoma:


TX/LA Link
Thats not former Erika, is it?
Quoting JamesSA:
--> 1530 That looks surprisingly alive still for a dissipated storm. Is that current?


Say it...

Is it the best looking dissipated storm you have ever seen?
Quoting serialteg:


If I recall correctly, ever since it was named...

Erika may start forecasting what the NHC does lol
Quoting sarahjola:
cajunmoma
can you post a link to that gfs model please. thanks in advance



Here You Go Link
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Erika has had more swirls than a convention of Dervishes.


Thats right erika has an outstanding convention.
"Thank's. I haven't looked into it except visual satellite observation. I saw someone else mention development in Gulf and assumed they were referring that."

While the area that MobileGirl mentioned will unfortunately rain out our weekend that is not the area to watch for developement. The area to watch will be in the Western Gulf near the Texas Coast.
Quoting stormsurge39:
I think she will keep blowing up at night to survive, until the enviroment gets right for developement.


Could be.
1555. LUCARIO
TOLD Ya, erika is making a COME BACK
She will not die
she is like madonna
Erika is fixing to give us all a big surpise.
she ain't over til the fat weather lady sings
15n 35w looks like a baby version of the former Erica. lol
stormsurge
i think you're right
its been the case so far with erika
longtime lurker first time poster.

If Erika keeps on blowing her convention she would not even fit in the GOM.
Amazing.
thanks cajunmoma you're awesome
1560. LUCARIO
Quoting apocalyps:
longtime lurker first time poster.

If Erika keeps on blowing her convention she would not even fit in the GOM.
Amazing.


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.
Quoting LUCARIO:
TOLD Ya, erika is making a COME BACK
She will not die
she is like madonna
Erika is fixing to give us all a big surpise.
she ain't over til the fat weather lady sings


hmmm hmmmm

LA LA LA LA LA <<-- Fat lady is warming up
@1546

orca is that the first time we've really seen those come so close in agreement? it kinda shocks me looking is y i ask.
Quoting LUCARIO:


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.


Good post,keep up the good work,thanks.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Thank's. I haven't looked into it except visual satellite observation. I saw someone else mention development in Gulf and assumed they were referring that."

While the area that MobileGirl mentioned will unfortunately rain out our weekend that is not the area to watch for developement. The area to watch will be in the Western Gulf near the Texas Coast.

I saw the GFS yesterday develop something in the BOC and it moved into the central gulf coast region sometime around the 9th, maybe a tropical storm.
Quoting mobilegirl81:

Erika may start forecasting what the NHC does lol


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'
Quoting mobilegirl81:

I saw the GFS yesterday develop something in the BOC and it moved into the central gulf coast region sometime around the 9th, maybe a tropical storm.


Probably a forecast for Erika.
Quoting CandiBarr:
@1546

orca is that the first time we've really seen those come so close in agreement? it kinda shocks me looking is y i ask.


Thats straight off the WU frontpage for Erika.. what I can't find.. is a model run that agrees with it. The date time group says its new data...
Is the trough off the US east coast being caused by an unusually southerly jet stream? Here in Scotland we've had an unbelievably wet summer and I think it might be due to a southerly jet stream inducing depressions in the Atlantic and steering them over the UK.

We've just had the remnants of Danny here in Scotland resulting in severe flooding. Aberdeen had it's wettest September day on record. We had Bill a week ago. Usually, these remnants go to the north of Scotland, but not this year. I think the trough off the US east coast and the wet Scottish summer are connected.

Here's a link to a BBC news webpage about the flooding here. There's a video link to click on which shows the floods.

Link

Link doesn't work. Cut 'n' paste this.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/8237299.stm
Quoting sarahjola:
stormsurge
i think you're right
its been the case so far with erika
I hope im not,because if she survives in conditions like shes in now, just imagine what shes going to be like in the right conditions! Not good for some people!
Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'

LOL!
Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'


nice nice nice !!!
1573. P451
Quoting StormW:


Run the full disc mode and zoom in.


Well I'll be...never even noticed that and it's right there. Thanks Storm.

Quoting LUCARIO:


i agree
erika is amazing
she will be stronger then katrina
she is just keeping everything under til the big finale.

awe man don't bring up katrina
gives me flashbacks like nam. lol!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats straight off the WU frontpage for Erika.. what I can't find.. is a model run that agrees with it. The date time group says its new data...


OO Im gonna have to go play. didnt know that came from wu. dont think I can help much with finding the model run on it..i'd like to know what you do find tho :)
Quoting JamesSA:
--> 1530 That looks surprisingly alive still for a dissipated storm. Is that current?

yep its current
mobilegirl
you are crazy lmao! good laugh
Most likely scenario is that Erika drifts towards Jamaica,and explodes there to a major.
Luckely with this westsouthwest track the egyptian pyramides are safe.
Oeps,just saw another explosion of convention.
bbl


ewwwwww....
Quoting CandiBarr:


ewwwwww....


Thanks,that will help a lot.lol
Quoting Cotillion:


That'd be pretty funny.

'...Coffee Warnings now in effect for all forecasters....

A Cigarette Watch has also been issued.

Meteorologists pacing around in annoyance has now increased to... 5mph.. 8km/h.

The pressure of perplexed forecasters has now increased... to 1010mb.

Total caffeine accumulations are expected to be in the region of 6 cups... 15 cups are possible in isolated areas.

Forecaster Erika'
yep that sums it up nicly one of the most stubborn storms kept junpin around standing still for the most part dancing across the wards kinda like gettin a strike on the match head but the wind blowing it out everytime it caught
Time for our TOP TEN!

You know Erika isn't dead yet when...

9. I have just used the ignore function for the first time, and they came in two's

8. Rain actually comes

7. Everyone's out surfing, and I'm stuck here at home

6. I slept with Wunderground, and woke with Wunderground

5. Puerto Ricans all over are upset and annoyed by having to go to work today

4. Stormno's not here

3. You lack ideas to put on #3

2. I guess the cat and 4 kittens living on my backyard are feeling the effects of Erika

And #1

People are still forecasting a hit on Florida or the GOM.
1584. P451
It looks like she is going WSW again!!! Unbelievable!!! This storm is one to study afterwards!
Quoting P451:


Well I'll be...never even noticed that and it's right there. Thanks Storm.



If you're patient enough StormW tosses out a nugget every now and then. LOL
Quoting P451:


Well I'll be...never even noticed that and it's right there. Thanks Storm.



You know, I haven't gotten the hang of EUMETSAT still :(

And how do you make those nice neat small animations?
Quoting stormsurge39:
It looks like she is going WSW again!!! Unbelievable!!! This storm is one to study afterwards!


Thats not unbelievable,thats the logic track.
NHC forecast is unbelievable as they are wrong FOUR days in a row.
Have you noticed the new blow up of convention?
Quoting Elena85Vet:


If you're patient enough StormW tosses out a nugget every now and then. LOL


Actually.. if you ask him.. he is more then happy to help you in anyway he can. He has the patience of a saint most of the time.
candibarr- histroy don't look good for louisiana, huh?
Quoting apocalyps:


Thats not unbelievable,thats the logic track.
NHC forecast is unbelievable as they are wrong FOUR days in a row.
Have you noticed the new blow up of convention?
Yea,I blew up at a convention before and got fired!!LOL
Quoting StormW:


Yea...he tries to do that on and off during analysis.


I've got a good number of them from you over the last couple of years. I just can't put them to use as good though. Thanks
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Thank you CRS
ur welcome
Quoting StormW:


Yea...he tries to do that on and off during analysis.


I have been lurking here a while now and I thank you for your hard work....I have learned alot more about weather from you!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Yea,I blew up at a convention before and got fired!!LOL


You and Erika are two of a kind.
A lot of convention.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Yea,I blew up at a convention before and got fired!!LOL


That's funny!! Almost spit my Diet Coke out all over my keyboard.
yeah, but it is what it is. each storm kinda like a person very unique to its environment. even when they can have the appearance of being the same; they can be very different.

I hope this thing dies sooner than later.
I hope Erika doesnt show up for the 30 year Aniversary of Fredric. 9/12/79
Quoting stormsurge39:
Yea,I blew up at a convention before and got fired!!LOL

lol! yes in deed!
G'morning all!!!!!!!
Quoting stephelcarr:


I have been lurking here a while now and I thank you for your hard work....I have learned alot more about weather from you!


Hey,thanks.
I am modest but i am an expert about convention.
Glad i could help you.
1606. edmac
Are there any long range models for the wave that exited the coast of Africa. Im assuming that it will go above 20N and be swept out to sea, but I was just curious if there were any different conditions forecasted around next week.
stormw does ericka still have multiple vortices?
Quoting cajunmoma:


That's funny!! Almost spit my Diet Coke out all over my keyboard.
You never know when one of those are coming do you?LOL Hope your keyboard is alright!
Ericka is a card shark, pick a center any center in the deck.
1611. hydrus
Quoting stormsurge39:
I hope Erika doesnt show up for the 30 year Aniversary of Fredric. 9/12/79
I remember Fred,We were whacked by David just before Freddie hit.
1613. NOLAGuy
Since things are pretty quiet this morning, I hope this might be a good time for a question that has always puzzled me. I've always heard that the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the NE Quadrant of the storm. Is this true regardless of the direction of the storm or is it relative to the direction of the storm. For example, if a storm were tracking due SW, would the strongest winds be in the NW quadrant or still in the NE quadrant?

Just a curiosity I've had for a long time. And thanks for your posts in respone.
Quoting hydrus:
I remember Fred,We were whacked by David just before Freddie hit.
That was my first hurricane. I was 10 years old. What a way to get broke in!LOL
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Since things are pretty quiet this morning, I hope this might be a good time for a question that has always puzzled me. I've always heard that the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the NE Quadrant of the storm. Is this true regardless of the direction of the storm or is it relative to the direction of the storm. For example, if a storm were tracking due SW, would the strongest winds be in the NW quadrant or still in the NE quadrant?

Just a curiosity I've had for a long time. And thanks for your posts in respone.


That all depends on how strong the convention is.
Oh I forgot as Mad Dog would SAY ALLRIGHTTT MYYAMEEEE!!!!
Quoting iluvjess:
It sure was nice to see 'ol Steve Spurrier struggle with a very weak NC state last night! lol
Gonna be even better to see bama struggle against a overrated VT team. I hope they win for the sake of the sec but I also hope they get exposed and everyone realizes how overrated the tide is. Geaux Tigers.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Oh I forgot as Mad Dog would SAY ALLRIGHTTT MYYAMEEEE!!!!


OMG the Mad Dog I love em!!! Only during Dolphin games, still Listin to Lebatard :P.
1619. NOLAGuy
Apocalyps, so you are saying it just depends on the specific storm and its convection at any given time?
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Since things are pretty quiet this morning, I hope this might be a good time for a question that has always puzzled me. I've always heard that the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the NE Quadrant of the storm. Is this true regardless of the direction of the storm or is it relative to the direction of the storm. For example, if a storm were tracking due SW, would the strongest winds be in the NW quadrant or still in the NE quadrant?

Just a curiosity I've had for a long time. And thanks for your posts in respone.


NE quadrant is the most dangerous part of a storm. You've got the winds plus the forward motion of the storm added to it. You've also got the greatest surge probability there.
Quoting CandiBarr:
yeah, but it is what it is. each storm kinda like a person very unique to its environment. even when they can have the appearance of being the same; they can be very different.

I hope this thing dies sooner than later.


I agree.... drives me nuts when people post a track from 10 years ago and says it looks just like......
Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Gonna be even better to see bama struggle against a overrated VT team. I hope they win for the sake of the sec but I also hope they get exposed and everyone realizes how overrated the tide is. Geaux Tigers.
ROLL TIDE all over that statement!!!
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Since things are pretty quiet this morning, I hope this might be a good time for a question that has always puzzled me. I've always heard that the strongest winds in a hurricane are in the NE Quadrant of the storm. Is this true regardless of the direction of the storm or is it relative to the direction of the storm. For example, if a storm were tracking due SW, would the strongest winds be in the NW quadrant or still in the NE quadrant?

Just a curiosity I've had for a long time. And thanks for your posts in respone.


It's more accurate to say the strongest winds are in the "right, front" quandrant (in the northern hemisphere). so depending on how the storm is moving this may or may not be the NE quadrant.
Quoting StormW:


Don't know yet...just getting ready to analyze the vorticity maps and close up satellite loop images.


Here are three areas i think i'm still seeing circulation

Quoting StormW:


Don't know yet...just getting ready to analyze the vorticity maps and close up satellite loop images.


gogo gadget stormw.. *winks* cant wait to hear what your update says :)
1629. NOLAGuy
But suppose it is tracking SW, would NE still be most dangerous?
1630. RJT185
Quoting StormW:


Don't know yet...just getting ready to analyze the vorticity maps and close up satellite loop images.


Links for the loops? please.
"Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Gonna be even better to see bama struggle against a overrated VT team. I hope they win for the sake of the sec but I also hope they get exposed and everyone realizes how overrated the tide is. Geaux Tigers."

ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE! WE have some new weapons this year. You shall see tomorrow night why we are preseason ranked #5!
Quoting NOLAGuy:
But suppose it is tracking SW, would NE still be most dangerous?


You are correct. It's the right front quadrant of the storm, relative to storm motion, that is most dangerous. That is often the NE quadrant, since many hurricanes hit the US cost moving in a northerly direction...but not always.
That sounds like one for Storm W, but I imagine that it boils down to most storms travel west or north or some combination of those two directions, so if a storm is moving in this direction at say 15 mph, you have to subtract 15 on one side and add 15 on the other . There are probably other forces involved but that's all I can add.
1634. Relix
Come on Erika at least bring some rain to me =(
Quoting iluvjess:
"Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Gonna be even better to see bama struggle against a overrated VT team. I hope they win for the sake of the sec but I also hope they get exposed and everyone realizes how overrated the tide is. Geaux Tigers."

ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE! WE have some new weapons this year. You shall see tomorrow night why we are preseason ranked #5!


Better keep youre helmet on.
Erika could visit you.
1636. PBG00
Quoting StormW:


And the greatest pressure gradient.



Isn't that where most tornadoes are too?
Oops that how long it takes me to type.
Quoting Vortex95:


OMG the Mad Dog I love em!!! Only during Dolphin games, still Listin to Lebatard :P.
thats a problem right there
Looks like Erika is starting to take her nap again today! The wane to the wax looks like its starting again! Nite Nite
1643. NOLAGuy
Sounds like most say it is right front quadrant would be the most accurate way to describe the most dangerous sector and that generally is NE quadrant for the US mainland and Carribean. Thanks for the responses.
Quoting iluvjess:
"Quoting tigerfanintexas:
Gonna be even better to see bama struggle against a overrated VT team. I hope they win for the sake of the sec but I also hope they get exposed and everyone realizes how overrated the tide is. Geaux Tigers."

ROLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL TIDE! WE have some new weapons this year. You shall see tomorrow night why we are preseason ranked #5!
let the big gator eat, CHOMP !
Quoting WeatherStudent:
G'morning all!!!!!!!


Good morning to you two. Can you believe that erika is dead. You and I both had a lot of hopes for us here in Sflorida
1646. Relix
I think Erika is about to breathe her last.
1648. P451
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Check the swirl south of AL/Fla panhandle.




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)





Quoting NOLAGuy:
Sounds like most say it is right front quadrant would be the most accurate way to describe the most dangerous sector and that generally is NE quadrant for the US mainland and Carribean. Thanks for the responses.


That sums it up.
Oh My God I've got a million Mad Dog quotes but I cannot risk getting a permanent ban.
Quoting Relix:
I think Erika is about to breathe her last.
The so called death of Erika is way overated!
Quoting StormW:


Yep!


Hi Storm. Tornadoes...in the RF quadrant? Vortices (miniwhirls according to Fugita), but I thought tornadoes usually came with the passing of a hurricane?
Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)





That doesnt look good
Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)





Dont let Stormno see that ..we'll
never hear the end of it!
Quoting StormW:


Yep!




Good morning Mr. StormW aka weather god.. LOL
Storm may correct me here but from my observations the swirl in the Gomex south of AL/MS is in the upper levels and has little to no chance of reaching the surface. The Gomex prospect will be the splitting of the trough this weekend... Storm???
Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)







Thanks P451
we just got a special marine warning in Louisiana for gom. it said from pascagoula ms. southwest. don't see anything too dangerous in that area. does anyone else see anything?
Quoting P451:




A couple of rapid scan loops (each frame = 7 minutes)







Hmmmm for now probably nothing but like to see that area tonight low shear there.
Quoting mikatnight:


Hi Storm. Tornadoes...in the RF quadrant? Votecies (miniwhirls according to Fugita), but I thought tornadoes usually came with the passing of a hurricane?


The tornadoes from a landfalling hurricane are caused by the friction of high winds interacting with land. Since the highest winds are in the RF, the greatest chance of tornadoes is there too.
How is the bp doing se of New Orleans. Pat's favorite met., predicted something in the gulf were is kerry and stormno, no need to panic if they aren't on it.
Quoting StormW:


LOL!
Good morning to you too!

Did my email come through?




It sure did!
1665. KS4EC
Quoting gordydunnot:
That sounds like one for Storm W, but I imagine that it boils down to most storms travel west or north or some combination of those two directions, so if a storm is moving in this direction at say 15 mph, you have to subtract 15 on one side and add 15 on the other . There are probably other forces involved but that's all I can add.


Max winds take into account for motion so if a 100mph storm is moving 15mph to the N then winds on the East would be 100, winds on the north would be ~85 out of the east and winds on the West would be ~70 out of the North, all things being equal and speeds are windspeed over the ground.

Did I get that right Storm?
Quoting stormsurge39:
The so called death of Erika is way overated!


aren't you a troll?... hmmmmmm
Off to the tropical rainforest.. then work.


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Quoting StormW:


LOL!
Good morning to you too!

Did my email come through?
Mr Storm W when you do you think we will begin feeling the Rain from Erika here in Puerto Rico
Thanks in advance seems to me you know whats going on with Erika!
Is there a theoretical maximum for sustained winds?

I'm talking more hurricanes than tornadoes, of course.

(I say sustained, I'm sure gusts would be a lot harder to pin down.)
Quoting lurkn4yrs:




It sure did!


My email probably has not reached you because i did not send you one.
You should thank me for that.
Quoting sarahjola:
we just got a special marine warning in Louisiana for gom. it said from pascagoula ms. southwest. don't see anything too dangerous in that area. does anyone else see anything?


That is a special marine warning for tstms in offshore waters between pascagoula and sw pass , mississippi river....
Check your radar.
Apocalyps:

My email probably has not reached you because i did not send you one.
You should thank me for that.




Oh man! I'm so sad now.. Who else is gonna make my day so special..
From the NHC (doesn't seem to prove either point):

Tornado Facts

When associated with hurricanes, tornadoes are not usually accompanied by hail or a lot of lightning, clues that citizens in other parts of the country watch for.

Tornado production can occur for days after landfall when the tropical cyclone remnants maintain an identifiable low pressure circulation.

They can also develop at any time of the day or night during landfall. However, by 12 hours after landfall, tornadoes tend to occur mainly during daytime hours.

Hmmm storms seem to be starting to converge on that big blob, still think it is nothing for now but we shall see.
Yikes
1679. DocBen
Erika - it takes a licking but keeps on ticking ...
Quoting Relix:
I think Erika is about to breathe her last.



she did that and went to eternal sleep late last night... Erika is no more...no west winds and barely any south winds....just typical east to northeast winds as a wave-trough.
1683. Relix
I am not kidding you when I tell you this has been one of the most beautiful days ever here here I live. Crystal clear blue sky! =O
back again,

went back read all the posts since this morning, you know what, 1 hour of reading, of (except few posts)..*i think* *i saw* *i see* *i predict* * i know * *now dead* *erka2* *convetion* *reborn*..hahaha

i knew we couldnt keep from bashing each other..
Quoting Relix:
I am not kidding you when I tell you this has been one of the most beautiful days ever here here I live. Crystal clear blue sky! =O



Do you see a beach anywhere close by?
apocalyps erika is blowing you right into empty space
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting NOLAGuy:
Sounds like most say it is right front quadrant would be the most accurate way to describe the most dangerous sector ...



http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf

Hurricane
Basics



The Right Side of the Storm
As a general rule of thumb, the hurricane's right
side (relative to the direction it is travelling) is
the most dangerous part of the storm
because of
the additive effect of the hurricane wind speed and
speed of the larger atmospheric flow (the steering
winds). The increased winds on the right side
increase the storm surge. Tornadoes are also more
common here.

Looking at the figure above, pretend you are
standing behind the hurricane with your back to the
steering flow. In this case, the right side is the
eastern section of the hurricane. (If it were travelling
east to west, the right side would be the north
section.) The winds around the hurricane's eye are
moving in a counterclockwise fashion. At Point A,
the hurricane winds are nearly in line with the
steering wind, adding to the strength of the winds. For example, if the steering currents are 30 mph and the average
hurricane winds are 100 mph, the wind speed would be 130 mph at Point A. On the other hand, the winds at Point B
are moving opposite those of the steering wind and therefore slow to 70 mph (100 - 30 mph). Incidentally, National
Huricane Center forecasts take this effect into account in their official wind estimates.



[edit] since this is a .pdf, I was unable to link the illustration.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
apocalyps erika is blowing you right into empty space


To funny,i already live overthere.
Quoting StormW:


What they have stated is apparently true.

What I was trying to point out, is the mechanics of it.


Thanks Storm,

Appreciate the input. Lived in SE Fla my whole life and have always been told greatest chance for a tornado was after the main body of the storm passes (be damned if I can find any quotes to back me up though). I was thinking that vortices within the eyewall (miniwhirls, as Tetsuya Fugita described them in Hurricane Andrew) were being confused with the term “tornado” – a distinction I admittedly have a hard time understanding.
Once again new blog!!!
Maybe Erika will begin a loop today - south -then East - North and return West. Heck, that is about all we need in PR. A storm that just won't go away.

Isn't it possible that Erika's remnants could
drift Westward as far as Yucatan Channel before
she is picked up by the trough? Looking at the
surface map, the trough has weakened over the
south gulf and the front has basically washed out.
1697. WXHEAD
Quoting StormW:


What they have stated is apparently true.

What I was trying to point out, is the mechanics of it.


During hurricane Charlie, we had several of these tornadoes come through Cape Coral, FL while Charlie was in the middle of coming ashore, well, actually, about 3/4 of the way through. They were not shaped like a tornado vortex and were difficult to see. The debris did not get pulled very far off the ground. I saw 4 of them come down my street at an angle. They were doing about 60 mph, whereas the winds at that time were double that or more. My neighbors house fared well with the straight line winds but patches of his roof came off at the insistence of one of these tornadoes. You could feel a pulsating vibration on the walls (reinforced concrete block built to code 135 mph) when they went by. Bushes and trees that were laid over in one direction flailed wildly about in all directions, stripped of leaves and fronds, only to lay back down a second later and resume it's previous state. The tornadoes did more damage than the straight line winds to pool cages and house structures and appurtenances and some streets seemed void of damage, while others were obviously affected with trees and parts of buildings and other debris strewn about.
I did some research about them but was not satisfied with the entire explanation. It seemed to me that, in a hurricane, not all air masses are moving at the same velocity, at the same time in the same area, some could be affected by ground friction or perhaps an air that is more dense, thus slower to move or harder to slow down. In any case, it seemed like there may be faster moving air masses (like the "jet stream") being pulled toward the LLC and either not affected or not as affected by friction or other factors. In other words what Stormw said except I think it happens in a horizontal shear in a vertical plane, not just a horizontal shear in a horizontal plane. When they encounter another slower moving air mass, they produce a spin (much like the swirling eddies you can produce by moving your hand through the water in your bathtub). The greater the differential between the conflicting air masses, the greater the size and power of the vortices produced. Just like a "real" tornado, the upper end of the vortex can be pulled along, impinged between these air masses and the effect would be the same, it would be pulled tighter and the vortex speed would increase. (Just like Stormw said...I like him. He seems....smart)
That's the extent of my studies on the subject. I came from a tornado chasing background in the midwest. When I first came to Florida, I was hoping to be able to apply my studies on tornadoes to hurricanes or at best the tornadoes they produce, but I haven't been able to find as much about these hurricane induced tornadoes as there is about the hurricanes or forecasting them. If anyone knows of any research or anyone doing research lately in this area, I would be glad to know of it.