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Erika Hangs on, With Big Uncertainties Ahead

By: Bob Henson 1:36 AM GMT on August 27, 2015

After going through a rather sickly phase during the day on Wednesday, Tropical Storm Erika began to rally after sunset, a sign that it may yet survive--and perhaps eventually thrive--en route to a possible U.S. East Coast landfall. As of 8:00 pm EDT Tuesday, Erika was located at 16.7°N, 59.5°W, or about 150 miles east of Antigua. Erika remains a relatively weak tropical storm, with top sustained winds of around 45 mph. An Air Force hurricane hunter measured peak sustained winds at flight level off41 knots (47 mph) at 2339 GMT (7:30 pm EDT). Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect throughout the Leeward Islands, but the main effect of Erika--heavy rains--is largely a blessing for this drought-parched region.


Figure 1. Infrared imagery from NOAA’s GOES-East floater satellite shows the intensification of Erika’s core showers and thunderstorms between 1815 GMT Wednesday, August 26, and 0045 GMT Thursday, August 27. Convection over tropical cyclones often intensifies during the night. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Northwesterly wind shear and pockets of mid-level dry air kept Erika from intensifying on Wednesday. The storm’s main low-level center of circulation was displaced well northwest of the showers and thunderstorms (convection), a major hindrance to any strengthening. The typical nighttime development of convection will provide Erika another chance to either refocus convection over its main center of circulation or to develop a new center. Either option could give Erika an infusion of strength and help it to survive another day’s battle with wind shear on Thursday night. On its current track, Erika should pass just northeast of Puerto Rico on Thursday night. Wednesday’s models edged northward with Erika’s track, so it looks increasingly unlikely that Erika’s future strength will be dented too much by interaction with the mountains of Hispaniola or Cuba. However, the unrelenting wind shear will actually intensify from Thursday into Friday, according to several models. Erika has a fairly large, well-structured circulation that should give it a fighting chance, although it’s still possible that the storm will degenerate into an open wave by the weekend.


Figure 2. The NHC forecast for Erika as of 2100 GMT (5:00 pm EDT) on Wednesday, August 26.

Erika and the East Coast: A big question mark
The next big question is how much strength Erika will gain over the Bahamas, assuming it survives to that point. Sea-surface temperatures are about 1°C (1.8°F) warmer than average from the Bahamas to South Florida, running in the 86°F to 90°F range, and Erika should encounter weaker wind shear by this point. The official NHC forecast from 5:00 pm EDT Wednesday (Figure 2) brings Erika into eastern Florida as a Category 1 hurricane on Monday. This is a classic case where the intensity prediction (75 mph) may not be the most likely outcome in itself, but rather a split-the-difference compromise. As NHC notes in its forecast discussion, this outlook incorporates the chance that Erika could arrive at the Bahamas too disrupted to strengthen (a real possibility) or could intensify more than predicted (another real possibility). One significant change on Wednesday was that the most reliable long-range models are now consistently calling for Erika to approach U.S. shores as a hurricane. Both the 1200 GMT ECMWF run and the 1800 GMT GFS run bring Erika north and northeast just off the Florida and Carolina coastlines as an intensifying hurricane. The now-bullish GFS has joined the chorus of the HWRF and GFDL models, which have insisted for more than a day that Erika could intensify dramatically while over the Bahamas. We need to keep in mind that if Erika were to become a north- or northeastward-moving hurricane along the East Coast, only a slight change in track angle could have a major influence on coastal impacts. It also remains possible that the upper-level trough existing the East Coast this weekend will not be strong enough to pull Erika with it, which would leave behind a slower-moving, more erratic storm that could stall offshore or cause multiple days of trouble inland (see Figure 3 below). And this all presumes that Erika will even make it to the Bahamas in solid enough shape to strengthen.

We shouldn’t put too much stock in any individual model run, as there is plenty of variety in the outcome even within the ECMWF and GFS ensembles (which simulate the weather a number of times, with slight variations in the starting point to account for observational uncertainty). The overarching message at this point is that residents from Florida to North Carolina should be aware of the possibility for a significant hurricane during the early to middle part of next week, and plan and prepare accordingly.

Jeff Masters will be back with a full update on Thursday. See also Steve Gregory’s update from Wednesday afternoon.

Bob Henson



Figure 3. Upper-atmospheric flow at the 500-mb level (about 18,000 feet) projected by the GFS model run from 1800 GMT on Wednesday, August 26, for Tuesday afternoon, September 1. In this scenario, a strengthening upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. and a weak upper low center over Louisiana (a left-behind remnant of the upper-level trough that now extends from the northeast U.S. to the Gulf states) would put Erika in a weak steering pattern just off the southeast U.S. coast.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 991. sar2401:

It appears a new center might be forming west of Dominica. That's one of the reasons for the shift. It's also one of the things most difficult to predict with a weak storm like this.

I have been seeing a center relocation for the last 4 hours. I think the center might even relocate south of 16n. the MLC is around 15.5n so that would be a BIG jump south
I think the nhc was closer to the mark yesterday with their forecast.
Quoting 996. weatherbda:



GFS, UKMET, HWRF, NGFDL, and GFDL, all have it going up the East Coast. I could be looking at the old track map (but this is what it says here on Wunderground). Correct me if I'm wrong, though.


This shift south is interesting as patrap and other folks like Mobile & Pensacola need to watch this too. This is a very interesting shift south and a major one @ that.
Quoting 918. win1gamegiantsplease:

When (or if) Erika passes north of Hispaniola is when the models should start closing in on one another, that'll be when I start working my plans if this turns out to be a coast hugger.



It can be hit or miss, but when there isn't a tropical cyclone with its eyes set on N America (possibly) it's a pretty tame place...coming from someone who is relatively new here. You learn a lot.
Agree. We're down to one troll and a handful of wishcasters.:-):-)
Quoting 987. StormTrackerScott:



Going to be a direct hit on FL or it could go into the East Gulf. As far west as Louisiana is in play now.


Scott, every storm you try to pinpoint 5+ days out where its going to land exactly and unfortunately not even the NHC has that skill. Try to cool it on the FL hyping.
Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:



Direct strike for PR coming and maybe DR.
looks like it will move over or just west of PR but I do think she will avoid hispanola, probably scrape the northern coast
Quoting 1002. ProgressivePulse:

I think the nhc was closer to the mark yesterday with their forecast.


Could go right across S FL & up the East Gulf now.
Looks like Erika is consolidating her center per radar out of Metro France.
Still has a fight ahead of her. 

It will all come down to how she interacts with PR.
If she goes south, Hispaniola will get a hold of her pretty good and we could see complete dissipation or a weaker storm with a completely different forecast track.

Anything north of PR I feel the models are showing that scenerio very well already.


1009. joHS
re: I believe that's the case

thx sar.....so hide and wait....you know i don't do that well

jo
If Erika can survive the Carib. I think she will make a Cat 2 landfall in S FL and then turn NE towards the Carolinas
Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:



Direct strike for PR coming and maybe DR.


I am not totally in disagreement with this. I believe PR might just be a direct hit from southeast to northwest but I do think it will then go north of the DR on a more WNW to NW movement
1012. Relix
What the heck happened with Erika?!?!
Quoting 1008. ILwthrfan:

Looks like Erika is consolidating her center per radar out of Metro France.
Still has a fight ahead of her. 

It will all come down to how she interacts with PR.
If she goes south, Hispaniola will get a hold of her pretty good and we could see complete dissipation or a weaker storm with a completely different forecast track.

Any north of PR I feel the models are showing very well already.



disagree. if she goes over PR, her wnw motion should take her NORTH of hispanola, might scrape the coast. close call given nobody can locate her center
Quoting 1003. StormTrackerScott:



This shift south is interesting as patrap and other folks like Mobile & Pensacola need to watch this too. This is a very interesting shift south and a major one @ that.


I'm not seeing what you are! Can you explain?
Quoting 1012. Relix:

What the heck happened with Erika?!?!


She tried to max-out during di-max and made the best of it considering all the other negative factors.....Impressive work so far.
Quoting 1000. weathermanwannabe:

Yall can second-guess NHC all you want but the general public should focus on the NHC 3-Day track.


I would begin evacuating Houston.
1017. Relix
Quoting 1015. weathermanwannabe:



She tried to max-out during di-max and made the best of it considering all the other negative factors.....Impressive work so far.


I meant the center. That LLC movement or reformation. Completely changes the forecast at least for PR
Quoting 1016. Gator13126:



I would begin evacuating Houston.
lol, anything is possible...
Look how south it is on that...


I don't want to see Erika in D.C.Thats all I'm asking for because her friend Bill already paid us a visit.
1021. vlaming
Quoting 1003. StormTrackerScott:



This shift south is interesting as patrap and other folks like Mobile & Pensacola need to watch this too. This is a very interesting shift south and a major one @ that.


Of course, the shift south also might mean a date with the mountains of Hispanola, which in turn will probably mean nobody after that will have to watch it anymore.
1022. barbamz
The lastest from recon: which swirl to choose? BTW both had already been there in the earlier pass.
1023. luigi18
south track ??? 16.5 now and then

INIT 27/0900Z 16.8N 61.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 17.6N 63.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.0N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

1024. SLU
Sustain winds of 43mph with gusts to 60mph measured in La Desirade (Guadeloupe)
1025. GetReal
Quoting 955. JRRP:




Well I do believe that we can through those particular models runs onto the trash heap. In fact, it Erika does not make a right turn NOW, you can add the current NHC official track to that heap.
Quoting 1017. Relix:



I meant the center. That LLC movement or reformation. Completely changes the forecast at least for PR


Can't tell or speculate from the satt loops; will have to wait for recon to confirm on that one.
Quoting 991. sar2401:

It appears a new center might be forming west of Dominica. That's one of the reasons for the shift. It's also one of the things most difficult to predict with a weak storm like this.


Good morning

I posted last night that I was surprised the center had not relocated under the deep convection which is a common occurrence with sheared systems. Very strong convection tends to drive down surface pressure and a low centre is invariably drawn in that direction especially where the current centre is displaced to the edge of the storm and has a relatively high pressure.

I don't know if that is happening now but such a shift is long overdue with Erika IMO
Quoting 1022. barbamz:

The lastest from recon: which swirl to choose? BTW both had already been there in the earlier pass.



im thinking the center near 15.5 will become the dominate one. looking at the Martinique radar, all rain west of dominica is being pulled to the east, indicating some sort of center to the ne of there.

Quoting 1025. GetReal:



Well I do believe that we can through those particular models runs onto the trash heap. In fact, it Erika does not make a right turn NOW, you can add the current NHC official track to that heap.
If this is accurate, it will have a very hard time escaping negative effects from Hispaniola.
Morning Baha... I'm doing preparations even though I don't expect much wind...
I haven't scrolled back, have there been any reports about rainfall yet from folks down island?


Quoting 1004. BahaHurican:

Agree. We're down to....:-):-)
Looks the models are off again,Looks like it needs to go n/w right away to get back on their track guidance.Dont see it happening. Looks more like land intaglement in the future.
Quoting 1022. barbamz:

The lastest from recon: which swirl to choose? BTW both had already been there in the earlier pass.



The fight for dominance appears to have begun.
Here is the current upper level TUTT and shear scenario (and still no anti-cyclone); she is going to go through another weakening phase today between the land interaction with PR and the dry air aloft from the TUTT cell right over Puerto Rico. I would not expect to see her develop any real banding features until she clears the Islands and gets closer to the Bahamas:


I have told a few of my friends in Florida if you are in the cone it is best to just prepare and not panic. As the NHC says don't follow the line follow the cone if you are in it get prepared. If you are prepared you really have nothing to worry about.
1035. bigtp3
Quoting 1019. SFLWeatherman:

Look how south it is on that...





That is what has me confused. When is this turn supposed to happen? STILL moving West. Now Ericka will have to make an even sharper NW turn...
Quoting 953. SLU:



KAIRI FM. There is a lot of flood damage in Dominica today. No TS warning was issued for the island even though the mid level low with TS force winds was headed in that direction since yesterday.
Did you get any rain, SLU?
Quoting 1007. StormTrackerScott:


Could go right across S FL & up the East Gulf now.


Hi Scott. Since I live within 5 miles of the Atlantic I've decided to put up gable vent shutters yesterday and test the generator.

I intend to leave them on until Thanksgiving.

My wife couldn't believe there were no battereis at Walmart yesterday. Home Depot and Lowes were bust with plywood orders as well. Peope are taking Erika seriously.
Quoting 990. StormTrackerScott:



Direct strike for PR coming and maybe DR.


Hispaniola strike may end Erika, and render future track speculation moot. It looks like it will have to turn now to get to the NHC forecast north of Puerto Rico tomorrow.
1039. MahFL
From JAX NWS for next Monday :

"Tropical
Storm
Conditions
Possible"
1040. barbamz

Click the pic for the loop: looks like the naked swirl from yesterday evening dissipated somewhere between Antigua and Barbuda during the night.
No expert, but I agree. It is south of where it "should" be. Finishing preps here in Palm Beach County today just in case.
Quoting 1010. Camerooski:

If Erika can survive the Carib. I think she will make a Cat 2 landfall in S FL and then turn NE towards the Carolinas
Quoting 1019. SFLWeatherman:

Look how south it is on that...





Lol, the models took a major meteorological dump I see. Will be interesting to see just how long Erika moves due west, if anything, it has gone a hair south of due west, but still technically a west movement. But certainly no wnw movement yet.

I suspect the southward relocation was due to pressure falls from the deeper convection on the south side of the circulation. This isn't unusual with week systems to relocate from such a process. Even still, looking at the windward islands radar, relocation aside, the track has still been due west so far when model guidance had a wnw movement by mid day yesterday.
And finally the big-scale WV loop. The sal/dry-air pocket to her north has retreated since yesterday but she is headed towards another band of moderate shear in the vicinity of PR:

1044. Mikla
Just logged on and got confused. The NHC fix in the latest forecast is WSW of the last fix. Yet, their first forecast point is a jog to the NW before a turn to the WNW.

It looks almost like they had the cone done, then realized the center relocated and made quick fix of the cones fix position. It is not clear to me what would make the storm jog NW.

Either that or I need more coffee before looking at this stuff.
1045. FOREX
Quoting 1038. EdMahmoud:



Hispaniola strike may end Erika, and render future track speculation moot. It looks like it will have to turn now to get to the NHC forecast north of Puerto Rico tomorrow.
Seems to be showing no intention of going anywhere but due West.lol
Current NHC forecast say E will move w or wnw but the cone show it moving almost due N for a little while. Did I miss understand or is there a MAJOR correction coming soon? Am I reading the info wrong?
Looks like Erika is going to be a giant headache for the blog today! If it can manage to continue firing off the intense convection it is, it may organise a bit better. Certainly looking like multiple LLCs now based off recon. Depending on how this evolves it could cause the track to either stay roughly the same or see a huge shift west. Will definitely be an interesting day at the very least.

Also, very scary to see just how heavy some of the rains have been over the islands! Hopefully everyone is safe and the rain has helped with the on going drought.
Quoting 960. guygee:

NHC forecast goes out 5 days because it has enough skill to do so. Time to start watching is passed, living on the ECFL barrier island I am already going through my list making sure I have everything I need to make final preparations should the need arise.


The NHC is now doing 7 day forecasts but only releasing to the public 5 days.
Quoting 1041. SecretStormNerd:

No expert, but I agree. It is south of where it "should" be. Finishing preps here in Palm Beach County today just in case.
Ye but the big question is "Will Erika survive the Carib?"
http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles -guyane/animation/radar/antilles

I don't see a lot of what I would consider as rain on the radar...
1051. barbamz
Quoting 1028. floridafisherman:

im thinking the center near 15.5 will become the dominate one. looking at the Martinique radar, all rain west of dominica is being pulled to the east, indicating some sort of center to the ne of there.

Indeed: Now decent westerlies west of severly flooded Dominica.


From twitter:
Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 2 Min. Vor 2 Minuten
Based on radar estimates, over 150 mm (6 inches) of rain fell across Dominica within the last SIX hours.

1052. sar2401
Quoting 1009. joHS:

re: I believe that's the case

thx sar.....so hide and wait....you know i don't do that well

jo
Well, I could make things up, like some on here do, or engage in wild speculation, as some on here do, but that won't help either of us. We're going to see the usual four and five day track errors plus a lot more with this storm. All we can do is wait and see if things get more squared away over the next several days.
i dont think being south of nhcs point will amount to much. the system has no eye wall that i can see. erica mostly is a big glob rotating. its a very large system you can put both fl.& georgia inside of it.
If the true center is where the HH found it then im afraid the chances of it surviving a pass of PR/Hispaniola is minimal. Its too early to try and pinpoint 5+ days out where its going to be located. Focus on 48-72 hours from now. The NHC couldn't even predict that correctly let alone the bloggers here lol.
A portion of the NWS PR forecast for today:


SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATER
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FREQUENT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ERIKA
IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MAJOR CONCERN CONTINUE
TO BE RAINFALL ACTIVITY. RAINFALL ESTIMATES OVER THE LOCAL AREA
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 3 AND 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUMS
OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST DANGEROUS RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE:
- MODERATE RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT SEVERAL EVACUATIONS AND
RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY QUICKLY BECOME SWOLLEN WITH SWIFTER
CURRENTS AND OVERSPILL THEIR BANKS IN A FEW PLACES, ESPECIALLY
IN USUALLY VULNERABLE SPOTS. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS,
ARROYOS, AND DITCHES OVERFLOW.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER SOME STRUCTURES OR WEAKEN FOUNDATIONS.
SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE EXPANDED AREAS OF RAPID
INUNDATION AT UNDERPASSES, LOW-LYING SPOTS, AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. SOME STREETS AND PARKING LOTS TAKE ON MOVING WATER AS
STORM DRAINS AND RETENTION PONDS OVERFLOW. DRIVING CONDITIONS
BECOME HAZARDOUS. SOME ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES.

Morning everyone,

I agree with everything kman is saying, the LLC has relocated, or been forced to the SE, overnight and is closer to the MLC. That's going to put a major wrench in the forecast, as now we've got a possibe Hispaniola interaction to deal with. The models appear to have subsequently shifted back to the west (and weaker). Extremely tricky forecast.
Quoting 1056. CybrTeddy:

Morning everyone,

I agree with everything kman is saying, the LLC has relocated, or been forced to the SE, overnight and is closer to the MLC. That's going to put a major wrench in the forecast, as now we've got a possibe Hispaniola interaction to deal with. The models appear to have subsequently shifted back to the west (and weaker). Extremely tricky forecast.


The sheared ones are always the biggest challenge :-)
Quoting 1019. SFLWeatherman:

Look how south it is on that...





if the center relocated more in the convection...we all know that it changes the track....but in this particular storm, couldn't it also mean a better chance of surviving a bit of shear and dry air that it is to encounter?
Link

Wind field map really shows where the circulation is.
Looks like according to Reccon we have 2 centers maybe its finally going to relocate its center . The center to the south has a higher presure but it looks more aligned to the wind barbs that recon showed coming into the Northern center .
Quoting 1054. CapeCoralWx:

If the true center is where the HH found it then im afraid the chances of it surviving a pass of PR/Hispaniola is minimal. Its too early to try and pinpoint 5 days out where its going to be located. Focus on 48-72 hours from now. The NHC couldn't even predict that correctly let alone the bloggers here lol.


I'd be cautious with claiming Erika has a "minimal" chance of surviving Hispaniola. Fay, Gustav, Isaac, et cetera, all survived interaction with Hispaniola. This isn't anything like Danny, where any interaction with the Greater Antillies was a guranteed death.
With the center re-location, if Erika doesn't start gaining latitude soon it may end up hitting DR. At the least, Erika may skirt the DR coast for a time which would still cause issues with dry air. The latter is what I expect to see happen, ride just north of DR.
Quoting 1027. kmanislander:



Good morning

I posted last night that I was surprised the center had not relocated under the deep convection which is a common occurrence with sheared systems. Very strong convection tends to drive down surface pressure and a low centre is invariably drawn in that direction especially where the current centre is displaced to the edge of the storm and has a relatively high pressure.

I don't know if that is happening now but such a shift is long overdue with Erika IMO


NHC might be going off the Google Winds, it's as good an indicator as any:

LinkLink
You can see some of the upper level shear to the South of PR in the bottom left of this loop as well as some of the convection starting to wane again as the storm approaches d-mix again later today.

1065. sar2401
Quoting 1047. Envoirment:

Looks like Erika is going to be a giant headache for the blog today! If it can manage to continue firing off the intense convection it is, it may organise a bit better. Certainly looking like multiple LLCs now based off recon. Depending on how this evolves it could cause the track to either stay roughly the same or see a huge shift west. Will definitely be an interesting day at the very least.

Also, very scary to see just how heavy some of the rains have been over the islands! Hopefully everyone is safe and the rain has helped with the on going drought.
Maybe. Just stand by for about 70 minutes and you'll know. Man, the need for immediate gratification is strong today. :-) As far as I can tell from checking the limited amount of data from the other islands near the storm, Dominica has had the misfortune of being the only one with heavy rain. All the rest have gotten from just light rain to none, but the rain shield still has some distance to go in the north half.
Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:



I'd be cautious with claiming Erika has a "minimal" chance of surviving Hispaniola. Fay, Gustav, et cetera, all survived interaction with Hispaniola. This isn't anything like Danny, where any interaction with the Greater Antillies was a guranteed death.

I agree. Last 24 hours we have seen an open wave, a major hurricane, Out to Sea, over Florida,, near the Carolinas. I am sure this is driving the NHC crazy. I have never seen the Euro so confused before on what to do.
Another classic case where experts relay on computer models entirely instead a dose of common sense.Mother nature always will throw a monkey wrench into everything.
Quoting 1058. tiggeriffic:



if the center relocated more in the convection...we all know that it changes the track....but in this particular storm, couldn't it also mean a better chance of surviving a bit of shear and dry air that it is to encounter?


Yes it does :o) and a Good Morning to you ((((Tigger))))

Taco :o)
TWC just confirmed the shift south, and the uncertainty of even the short term forecast.


heavy rain in the center today u donot see the center with no rain with it tell me heavy rain in the center and the wind shear went down some
1071. hydrus
Quoting 982. belizeit:

If you look at the NHC tracking chart you can see it missed there forcast by far and they actually had to relocate the center further south . The lasd advisory was 16.8 north this one is 16.5 North .

Hey, stranger... :-)
The shift isn't that great, but it's certainly large enough to result in extensive changes to the track. Unfortunately for us in the BHS / TCI I doubt it helps much.....
1073. WxLogic
IMO... Erika is still in a good environment for some small strengthening. Erika has been able to stay away from the destructive shear S of DR which as of 11Z appears to be retreating some to the west as compared to earlier today and which is clearly seen by the great outflow it has in all quadrants as per satellite presentation.

If Erika has major interaction with PR or Hispanola she will be toast. I will not try to out smart the NHC but the dissipation of Erika due to land interaction if that happens is the best case scenario for S Fl because IMO she will pass here and just WAVE at us.
Quoting 1068. taco2me61:



Yes it does :o) and a Good Morning to you ((((Tigger))))

Taco :o)


Good morning to you Taco :0)..... the storms this year have been like riding the FURY roller coaster.... ugh... how are the toes btw? feeling better?
Ada monzon expecting a center relocation at 11:00am. Que guapa es esa Sra. WOW
1077. Drakoen
It's hard to say what the center relocating farther to the southeast would have on track. Too many variables.
Newest 12z

just curious, can anyone post the link to the current HH location?
What's going on with the NHC latest cone? Is that a case of I'm gonna stick to my story? If Erica is moving west still that could be a game changer. Now you will have to consider a direct impact to Puerto Rico and possibly Hispaniola which in turn would significantly disrupt the intensity forecast.
Quoting 1059. SensesFail:

Link

Wind field map really shows where the circulation is.


And the winds suggest Erika will be getting a *haircut* from PR, not crashing into DR mountains.
1082. sar2401
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 62.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Quoting 1074. weaverwxman:

If Erika has major interaction with PR or Hispanola she will be toast. I will not try to out smart the NHC but the dissipation of Erika due to land interaction if that happens is the best case scenario for S Fl because IMO she will pass here and just WAVE at us.


I want say that because there is so much uncertainty with this Storm.
We have all seen that some storms have made that very same track
and survive to go own a make Hurricane statues. I will say this though,
the more west it goes the more west the cone will move....
just saying

Taco :o)
Quoting 1074. weaverwxman:

If Erika has major interaction with PR or Hispanola she will be toast. I will not try to out smart the NHC but the dissipation of Erika due to land interaction if that happens is the best case scenario for S Fl because IMO she will pass here and just WAVE at us.


With all due respect, it's really not that simple when it comes to Hispanola. Yes, if Erika interacts, or goes directly over the Dominican Republic it will weaken... it might even open up into a wave, like you mentioned, but Hispaniola interactions are tricky becauase they can "jerk" weak storms around, like what we saw with Isaac and Gustav and other such storms. And even if Erika opens up into a wave, there's ample time and favorable conditions for her to restrengthen if it were to approach Florida as those SSTs are the hottest in the Atlantic at the moment.
1085. will45
Quoting 1079. floridafisherman:

just curious, can anyone post the link to the current HH location?


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin =al&year=2015&storm=Erika&mission=06&agency=AF&pro duct=hdob&latest=1
1086. sar2401
New map shows the storm going right over San Juan, or just about.

Quoting 1074. weaverwxman:

If Erika has major interaction with PR or Hispanola she will be toast. I will not try to out smart the NHC but the dissipation of Erika due to land interaction if that happens is the best case scenario for S Fl because IMO she will pass here and just WAVE at us.


Not necessarily. There have been weak systems who've gone across PR/Hispanola and survived. Given Erika's robust circulation, I wouldn't think that interaction with PR/Hispanola would cause Erika to dissipate entirely.


i tell you it move more to the west in this run
1089. FOREX
Isn't it possible that Erika misses PR and DR and crosses Haiti which has less terrain to tear her apart?
Well shes not weakening

Time: 12:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.883N 60.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,197 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.1 mb (29.98 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 189° at 51 kts (From the S at 58.7 mph)
Air Temp: 7.0°C* (44.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 kts* (38.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (0.31 in/hr*)
1091. Torito
Thanks, Dr. Masters. Looks like the tropics are really starting to get going now... Late start seasons are not always the most docile..
Quoting 1075. tiggeriffic:



Good morning to you Taco :0)..... the storms this year have been like riding the FURY roller coaster.... ugh... how are the toes btw? feeling better?

Yes much better and Thank you so much. I have to say
it did work. I'm hopping to cut grass this morning and
really see how I goes.... :-* xoxoxo.
Oh and keep your eyes on this one and future "Fred"
it's going to be crazy in here again later today....
Just Saying

Taco :o)
Quoting 1088. hurricanes2018:



i tell you it move more to the west in this run
As you can see the models are inching ever so slightly more to the west... I expect Florida to gain more and more of a threat going into the weekend. Especially if Erika survives the Carib.
Quoting 1077. Drakoen:

It's hard to say what the center relocating farther to the southeast would have on track. Too many variables.


Especially with Hispaniola's history of moving around weak storms, as others on here had mentioned...
1095. beell
Quoting 1077. Drakoen:

It's hard to say what the center relocating farther to the southeast would have on track. Too many variables.


A cohesive symmetrical storm (stacked) should eventually respond to the steering offered by the ridge periphery. Perhaps a temporary jog in the consensus forecast track?
Quoting 1090. VAbeachhurricanes:

Well shes not weakening

Time: 12:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.883N 60.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,197 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.1 mb (29.98 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 189° at 51 kts (From the S at 58.7 mph)
Air Temp: 7.0°C* (44.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 kts* (38.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (0.31 in/hr*)
winds 60 mph
1097. sar2401
Quoting 1067. victoria780:

Another classic case where experts relay on computer models entirely instead a dose of common sense.Mother nature always will throw a monkey wrench into everything.
At this point in time, what "common sense" would you rely on?
1098. FOREX
Quoting 1078. VAbeachhurricanes:

Newest 12z


Even with the continued Westard movement and those models still take her poleward. Interesting.
Quoting 1086. sar2401:

New map shows the storm going right over San Juan, or just about.




I don't know if I believe that map, that map basically shows Erika making almost a N to NNW turn right now. That does not appear to be happening.
A southern reformation could make all the difference intensity wise over the next few days. We know that she would be moving into a more favorable shear scenario North of PR but here is the most recent 24 hour shear tendency per CIMMS and you can see the trend for increasing shear to the South of PR that I referenced earlier in the WV loop that the storm is headed towards:

Quoting 1095. beell:



A cohesive symmetrical storm (stacked) should eventually respond to the steering offered by the ridge periphery. Perhaps a temporary jog in the consensus forecast track?


Farther South for longer also gives the steering time to change. A new short term ball game now
1102. luigi18
Quoting 1079. floridafisherman:

just curious, can anyone post the link to the current HH location?
http://airbornescience.nasa.gov/tracker/#view=map &mapid=_11&zoom=6&lat=37.9381&lng=-75.4622&callsig n=NASA872
1103. LemieT
Good morning everyone. Here in Barbados since last night it has been overcast and quite breezy. I was hoping we would have had some rain but that seems unlikely. Our neighbours to the north are being inundated at the moment. Reports out of Dominica indicated massive flooding there as we speak.
It appears Erika's center may be attempting to relocate further south and east than the official position. This storm is a real head-scratcher for sure...
1104. sar2401
Quoting 1090. VAbeachhurricanes:

Well shes not weakening

Time: 12:49:00Z
Coordinates: 15.883N 60.867W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.2 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,197 m
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1015.1 mb (29.98 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 189° at 51 kts (From the S at 58.7 mph)
Air Temp: 7.0°C* (44.6°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 52 kts (59.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 kts* (38.0 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 8 mm/hr* (0.31 in/hr*)
Looks like some rain contamination in the other readings though.
Quoting 1098. FOREX:

Even with the continued Westard movement and those models still take her poleward. Interesting.


apparently they are reading where the High is right now or expecting it to go east.....that is the only thing I can figure
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 13:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2015
Storm Name: Erika (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 11:56:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°25'N 62°45'W (16.4167N 62.75W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,475m (4,839ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 81 nautical miles (93 statute miles) to the NNW (346°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 76° at 39kts (From the ENE at ~ 44.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the N (350°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,829m (6,001ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,835m (6,020ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 55kts (~ 63.3mph) which was observed 107 nautical miles (123 statute miles) to the ESE (115°) from the flight level center at 12:43:50Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 20° at 11kts (From the NNE at 13mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the SW (217°) from the flight level center
1107. FOREX
looks to my untrained eye that Erika might be moving just slightly more WNW than West now on visible, hard to tell though.
1108. hydrus
Quoting 1086. sar2401:

New map shows the storm going right over San Juan, or just about.



Looking at the latest model runs, I would expect a similar 5 day forecast track at 11 am. The NHC may move it just a hair to the west, but the models overall still keep the storm east of the FL coast. Looks significantly more promising for a FL hit than 12 hours ago though.
1110. MahFL
Quoting 1059. SensesFail:

Link

Wind field map really shows where the circulation is.


That is based on a model prediction and not the actual conditions.
1111. Drakoen
Shear didn't look too bad at 12z, marginal at Sint Maarten. I estimated around 15 knots. Maybe a little lower down by where Erika is.



Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:



I'd be cautious with claiming Erika has a "minimal" chance of surviving Hispaniola. Fay, Gustav, Isaac, et cetera, all survived interaction with Hispaniola. This isn't anything like Danny, where any interaction with the Greater Antillies was a guranteed death.
Major Danny is food for General Erika, he paved the way.
1114. Drakoen
Quoting 1101. kmanislander:



Farther South for longer also gives the steering time to change. A new short term ball game now


This. But looking at the vortex message they may just assume the northern vortex will take over and essentially the storm is on the forecast track.
1115. Relix
Guys, at 8AM they don't update the track just center fix, which is why the map looks like that. Isn't that common knowledge by now?
Quoting 1098. FOREX:

Even with the continued Westard movement and those models still take her poleward. Interesting.

But is that based on the newest center relocation? I am more curious what the NHC says at 11 then these 12z models.
I don't like it when they start saying the name of my location on TWC....just saying....it makes me feel guilty for being on here instead of having a productive {finding something to do to get ready even tho I pretty much am} day
Erika will have to move at an average of 300 degrees to miss Hispaniola to the North



If Erika continues the track she is taking until now she (or her main convection) will miss PR
1120. FOREX
Quoting 1099. DavidHOUTX:



I don't know if I believe that map, that map basically shows Erika making almost a N to NNW turn right now. That does not appear to be happening.
Right, that map is trash right now.
1121. K8eCane
Quoting 1117. tiggeriffic:

I don't like it when they start saying the name of my location on TWC....just saying....it makes me feel guilty for being on here instead of having a productive {finding something to do to get ready even tho I pretty much am} day


what did they say Tigger?
1122. 62901IL
Quoting 906. guygee:




That map looks happy!

Would only note, from a non-science basis, that some of these storms "feel" their way around significant land interaction or the core will sometimes thread the needle in the Caribbean through the Mona passage or Yucatan Channel. However, there is considerable shear on a more Southern route at the moment. At this point, we will have to wait to see where NHC declares a center-fix (to re-feed into the models) and we will have a better idea of where she might be headed, and in what shape, after the pass of PR (and assuming that the core does not get disrupted over PR); after that, Haiti-Hispanola would be the next major land gauntlet depending on how much interaction as well.
1124. ricderr
models shift west and east with each run......but to say since they're more east now than yesterday that they will shift back would be foolish......it would be my guess that we're dealing with intensity levels steering direction.....and i think that is noted by models and they're direction..weaker she stays further west than plots...and stronger she takes the more easterly track.....

what i know for certain is that el paso is safe from erika...........

and as i make my exit....may i sing my happy tune

ALL MY EXES (just one for the blogger that asked yesterday) LIVE IN FLORIDA....AND THAT'S WHERE CAT 5 MAJOR HURRICANE ERIKA IS GONNA BE!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting 1121. K8eCane:



what did they say Tigger?


All the uncertainty of course....but SC is now in the cone of uncertainty...went thru the spaghetti model lesson....GFS is honing in...you know...the usual 5 day out stuff but still isn't a comfortable feeling....
The E Central Fl coast is way overdue for such a storm, so it is about time, really. A category 1-2 storm will do significant damage, but nothing catastrophic in an area prone to such storms, but with relatively long average return periods.
1127. guygee
Quoting 983. sar2401:

True, but you're not in NC. I'd hope you already have everything you need considering the risky place you live. All that's left now is the big decision - evacuate or stay.
There is always the little things ... start freezing bottles of water, recharge the portable drill batteries, trim the trees close to the house, etc. Actually quite a bit of work all told even if I don't board up.
erika has me biting my nails... My cruise leaving from ft laud on Sunday looks completely up in the air atm. I was hoping for more clarification on the track this morning but it looks like I'll still be waiting. Royal Caribbean has my trip on standby while they evaluate. Looks like model guidance is slowing down little by little so I may be able to get out of port out ahead of he system??? All depends on how ballsy the cap'n is I suppose.
just saw the Dominica has received 8.86" of rain so far (measurement at the airport)..... that is a plethora of rain for such a little system
I think they either were locked on to the surface low or were expecting her to intensify. This storm needs to be better defined for the models to work better. And they may, or may not ever happen.

Quoting 1098. FOREX:

Even with the continued Westard movement and those models still take her poleward. Interesting.
Quoting 1118. VAbeachhurricanes:

Erika will have to move at an average of 300 degrees to miss Hispaniola to the North






Unless she keeps going West, I look at the NHC track and they have her tuning abruptly North to NW but looking at the Satellite she still looks to be heading due West!
1132. 62901IL
Quoting 1128. FLWeatherFreak91:

erika has me biting my nails... My cruise leaving from ft laud on Sunday looks completely up in the air atm. I was hoping for more clarification on the track this morning but it looks like I'll still be waiting. Royal Caribbean has my trip on standby while they evaluate. Looks like model guidance is slowing down little by little so I may be able to get out of port out ahead of he system??? All depends on how ballsy the cap'n is I suppose.


Captain Trough?
Quoting 1051. barbamz:


Indeed: Now decent westerlies west of severly flooded Dominica.


From twitter:
Antigua Met Service @anumetservice 2 Min. Vor 2 Minuten
Based on radar estimates, over 150 mm (6 inches) of rain fell across Dominica within the last SIX hours.




Anyway, Dominica gets all the rain more than often when it comes to weak/disorganized/sheard systems like this Erika, Erika 2009, Issac 2012...
Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:



I'd be cautious with claiming Erika has a "minimal" chance of surviving Hispaniola. Fay, Gustav, Isaac, et cetera, all survived interaction with Hispaniola. This isn't anything like Danny, where any interaction with the Greater Antillies was a guranteed death.


Dr M yesterday ~40% chance of it dissipating. Those chances likely haven't changed and may have increased now.
Easy! She is going the direction the models are NOT pointing to lol. You should be good! Seriously tho, I would not worry. It is what it is.

Quoting 1128. FLWeatherFreak91:

erika has me biting my nails... My cruise leaving from ft laud on Sunday looks completely up in the air atm. I was hoping for more clarification on the track this morning but it looks like I'll still be waiting. Royal Caribbean has my trip on standby while they evaluate. Looks like model guidance is slowing down little by little so I may be able to get out of port out ahead of he system??? All depends on how ballsy the cap'n is I suppose.
Quoting 1129. tiggeriffic:

just saw the Dominica has received 8.86" of rain so far (measurement at the airport)..... that is a plethora of rain for such a little system
Erika is actually pretty big.
Quoting 1103. LemieT:

Good morning everyone. Here in Barbados since last night it has been overcast and quite breezy. I was hoping we would have had some rain but that seems unlikely. Our neighbours to the north are being inundated at the moment. Reports out of Dominica indicated massive flooding there as we speak.
It appears Erika's center may be attempting to relocate further south and east than the official position. This storm is a real head-scratcher for sure...


Always the same story with disorganized weak TC's.
Erika is starting to feel some moderate shear in her NW quad but what appears to be the core passing through the Lesser Antilles looks very healthy at the moment:

Quoting 1113. GeoffreyWPB:



She may be disorganized, but the outflow sure looks good. And I am an admitted amateur, but I just don’t see how she moves north of PR from this location.
1140. hydrus
1141. FOREX
Quoting 1139. avthunder:


She may be disorganized, but the outflow sure looks good. And I am an admitted amateur, but I just don’t see how she moves north of PR from this location.
Headed straight for the Cayman.
Still waiting. Sure we won't get much rain.
1143. guygee
Quoting 1122. 62901IL:


That map looks happy!

It is the official NOAA forecast from 7 AM EDT, combined NHC/OPC/NWS.
1145. SLU
Quoting 1036. BahaHurican:

Did you get any rain, SLU?


Nope . Only a dense overcast
Erika's last 3 Latitude coordinates, 16.8N, 16.8N, 16.5N, quiet a SW jog at last update. So what are the models picking up that make them think she's going to turn sharply to the NNW as indicated by the NHC's track?
The Barbados radar loop is currently down (on their internet link) but here is their local image posted on the site:


Satellite Imagery
Quoting 1146. 69Viking:

Erika's last 3 Latitude coordinates, 16.8N, 16.8N, 16.5N, quiet a SW jog at last update. So what are the models picking up that make them think she's going to turn sharply to the NNW as indicated by the NHC's track?


You don't get this from a well organized storm supposed to move wnw...
1149. Torito
Many intensity models depicting Ignacio at least making a run at cat 5...

Quoting 1144. CaribBoy:




Which island you on again? Certainly some islands are getting decent rains!
Quoting 1109. HurrMichaelOrl:


Looking at the latest model runs, I would expect a similar 5 day forecast track at 11 am. The NHC may move it just a hair to the west, but the models overall still keep the storm east of the FL coast. Looks significantly more promising for a FL hit than 12 hours ago though.


What? This relocation far south puts FL squarely in the strike zone. Very big relocation of the COC suspect many more models will continue trending west. FL get ready is all I have to say maybe not so much from winds but what could be a dangerous flood set up as we got drilled again yesterday here in Orlando.
1152. Torito
Erika: That one loner model though...

1153. Grothar
Do these look like a switch a little west?

1154. beell
Call it the African Easterly Jet or just a tight pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the A/B ridge-but 98L/Erika began as a sharply amplified negative-tilt tropical wave AOA 600-700 mb. Strong winds along the northern edge of the wave and falling off to the south can sometimes produce horizontal shear or "speed shear" (winds increasing w/latitude at a particular level) and along with that, a boost in horizontal shear vorticity

Erika has never been able to rid herself of the somewhat narrow SW/NE oriented wave structure in the lower mid-levels and a center of surface low pressure that is also elongated along the wave axis bisecting the storm. But that extra vorticity could alllow the mid-level spin to survive the hostility further down the road.


N Dry air area ridge of Erika, moving S is keeping it from moving WNW... Big rains may even stay S of PR... Duarte Peak in RD will be the next big obstacle... Local news say now 70mph?
August 27th, Erika The Blob attacks the lesser Antilles! What's its deal? Shear isn't all that bad, it just can't get that circulation organized.

Until that inner core gets stacked and tightened, Erika will always be a weak blob. Hmm..... new gym pitch.
1157. Relix
Quoting 1151. StormTrackerScott:



What? This relocation far south puts FL squarely in the strike zone. Very big relocation of the COC suspect many more models will continue trending west. FL get ready is all I have to say maybe not so much from winds but what could be a dangerous flood set up as we got drilled again yesterday here in Orlando.


It may not survive DR, where its aiming. I doubt its gonna impact PR directly right now, big bust for NHC as they expected passage to the east and now will basically be to the west. Besides, PR's mountains aren't that tall so if it somehow did make it across us nothing would happen
heavy rainfall in the windwards= +potential energy downstream
1159. Grothar
Quoting 1114. Drakoen:



This. But looking at the vortex message they may just assume the northern vortex will take over and essentially the storm is on the forecast track.


The storm is South of track in any event looking at the previous cone. Whether this is short term with a return to track through an exaggerated move to the NW later today ( as now depicted ) is the question.
Quoting 1150. 69Viking:



Which island you on again? Certainly some islands are getting decent rains!


Dominica and Guadeloupe (some parts).

I'm in St Barths, no rain so far.
1162. Gearsts
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 51m51 minutes ago
And here's why the short-term for #Erika is so important. Reorganization of that tilted structure could relocate the storm entirely today.
Quoting 1153. Grothar:

Do these look like a switch a little west?


I wouldn't know considering I can't see FLA lol
Movement almost looks WSW at the moment, might slip South through the gauntlet of shear in the Caribbean and fizzle.

1165. FOREX
http://t.co/CNoBo5VmI5
Quoting 1154. beell:

Call it the African Easterly Jet or just a tight pressure gradient along the southern periphery of the A/B ridge-but 98L/Erika began as a sharply amplified negative-tilt tropical wave AOA 600-700 mb. Strong winds along the northern edge of the wave and falling off to the south can sometimes produce horizontal shear or "speed shear" (winds increasing w/latitude at a particular level) and along with that, a boost in horizontal shear vorticity

Erika has never been able to rid herself of the somewhat narrow SW/NE oriented wave structure in the lower mid-levels and a center of surface low pressure that is also elongated along the wave axis bisecting the storm. But that extra vorticity could alllow the mid-level spin to survive the hostility further down the road.


I don't know what any of that means but I'm going to memorize it and repeat it around the office.
Off for now
1168. WxLogic
Quoting 1151. StormTrackerScott:



What? This relocation far south puts FL squarely in the strike zone. Very big relocation of the COC suspect many more models will continue trending west. FL get ready is all I have to say maybe not so much from winds but what could be a dangerous flood set up as we got drilled again yesterday here in Orlando.


It will depend if it survives its Caribbean visit and if the new path allows it to "feel" less of that TROF expected to pass by early next week.
Quoting 1136. Camerooski:

Erika is actually pretty big.

All of Erika's entire storm would fit into just the hurricane force wind field of Hugo.....yes, Erika is bigger than Danny was....but it is not a huge storm by any means.... and it would also fit within the hurricane wind field of Floyd......
Quoting 970. StormTrackerScott:



FL is in for a insane amount of rain. I'm already up to 43.11" for the year here NW of Orlando.


I am near the airport in Orlando and would agree with those totals, although I don't have a good rain gauge. What type of rain gauge do you use, as I am looking for one.

TIA
Quoting 1140. hydrus:



2-3 " of rain over the next half a month hardly looks like a flood threat of any kind for us. That precip forecast obviously anticipates Erika will stay well offshore though. That can and may very well change.
1172. barbamz
New video of the catastrophic flash flooding in Dominica (Instagram).

More pics here and allegedly two persons died :-( I couldn't find any news report about this yet, though.
Quoting 1159. Grothar:


Ho Gro-
What do you think of that suite of tracks? Not so sweet is it?
Just to make it clear to everyone, using the convection to read organization/direction with a storm without a clear, defined coc doesn't work. The only way to track Erika's movement is by center fixes, the satellite loops are near worthless for short term movement right now.
#2cents
Erika is still actually located on/near the latest NHC track plot; just have to see if the current movement is merely what looks to be a jog a bit to the west but the core was actually forecast to be at it's present location at this time (giving the impression of the storm moving west as it passes through the Lesser Antilles) on it's way towards the brush with PR.
1176. Grothar
Quoting 1147. weathermanwannabe:

The Barbados radar loop is currently down (on their internet link) but here is their local image posted on the site:


Satellite Imagery


That's a great shot weather. I never saw it before, which is odd because I've seen almost every model since they were written in chalk. I was just going to post the regular old one.
1177. java162
#dominica.......the worse flooding in our history is occuring currently... 3 out 5 bridges crossing into the capital roseau have been badly damaged..buildings on the river banks are collapsing into the river.. i witnessed fishes swimming in the streets of the capital...its being reported that 4 persons may have been washed away from houses upstream... and thats only for the capital.... the flash flooding is widespread and worse in other parts of the country...both airports are under water... electricity is limited to pockets around the capital as the electricity company's power generators got flooded... and the rains continue to pour...
Quoting 1150. 69Viking:



Which island you on again? Certainly some islands are getting decent rains!


can someone share a few webcam links for locations currently impacted, if any? or ones to monitor in the hours ahead even?
its way south of forecast points. cause its barely alive. wouldn't surprise me to see dissapation
Quoting 1164. 69Viking:

Movement almost looks WSW at the moment, might slip South through the gauntlet of shear in the Caribbean and fizzle.




It wont pass that N dry air ridge... so it will keep moving West... they will have to keep adjusting the expected forecasts. Anyhow we are getting needed rains...
Erika may very well never move north...
Quoting 1176. Grothar:



That's a great shot weather. I never saw it before, which is odd because I've seen almost every model since they were written in chalk. I was just going to post the regular old one.
http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-R adar-SABDriver.php

Here is the link to the Barbados weather service; a great resource for a storm moving through the Islands (and especially when the Doppler is up so we can actually see where the core is)

1183. guygee
Time to review the topographic map of Hispaniola.

Running along the length of the island or a landfall from the south could result in serious weakening or even dissipation due to the mountainous terrain. Grazing the north shore won't have as much effect on the storm, but would at least save the people there from a potential disaster.
1184. Drakoen
From the get go the models have been too far north and too willing to ramp Erika up. She will probably end up being on the left side of the forecast cone. Interaction with Hispaniola definitely at play.
Will check back later this afternoon and awaiting more recon over the next 24 hours to get a better idea whether NHC is going to tweak the track a little bit but I would not expect any major changes to the current overall thinking of the storm eventually moving to the North of PR and Hispanola.
ugh...ok...time to go do something constructive until the next advisory....sitting here reading arguments isn't getting stuff done around here....later taters


Very serious flooding occurring right now on the island of Dominica, reports of several people missing and communications down across the nation.

The instagram account 'island360' has a few videos of the surge, serious stuff! Hope everyone is safe!
Quoting 1163. Camerooski:

I wouldn't know considering I can't see FLA lol
That's what I was going to say where is Florida, it is being covered by spaghetti models now
1191. rxse7en
Quoting 1165. FOREX:

http://t.co/CNoBo5VmI5
"Now the European model – one of our most reliable – has switched back to the bringing the storm over Florida. So it's very nice that we have these models that we can follow minute by minute, but individual runs of individual models are not relevant. We're not even sure how this thing is going to look tomorrow, so looking for an exact forecast for any particular location late in the weekend is a fool's errand."
1192. Grothar
Quoting 1173. rmbjoe1954:



Ho Gro-
What do you think of that suite of tracks? Not so sweet is it?


Hi, Joe. As I wrote last night, and I could be wrong because you never know what is in someone else's mind, but when I read the NHC report, my impression was totally different that some others. It appeared that the writer seemed frustrated about having to switch the models east to be in line with the outlier models, when he might have known they could possibly switch back west.

I still do not see what the GFDL and the HWRF see that would intensify it at that time.. Most storms are difficult to track, but this one may be a tad more difficult. (In case anyone remembers "Airplane II" a tad is about 20 million miles.)
Quoting 1177. java162:

#dominica.......the worse flooding in our history is occuring currently... 3 out 5 bridges crossing into the capital roseau have been badly damaged..buildings on the river banks are collapsing into the river.. i witnessed fishes swimming in the streets of the capital...its being reported that 4 persons may have been washed away from houses upstream... and thats only for the capital.... the flash flooding is widespread and worse in other parts of the country...both airports are under water... electricity is limited to pockets around the capital as the electricity company's power generators got flooded... and the rains continue to pour...


Sad
1194. FOREX
Erika may very well go West of DR and begin gaining latitude just before Eastern Cuba. Let's see what the experts say.
Quoting 1151. StormTrackerScott:



What? This relocation far south puts FL squarely in the strike zone. Very big relocation of the COC suspect many more models will continue trending west. FL get ready is all I have to say maybe not so much from winds but what could be a dangerous flood set up as we got drilled again yesterday here in Orlando.


I strongly disagree. Im currently following the NHC forecasts as everyone else should. But your constant doom and gloom is quite entertaining! keep it up :)
A track over Hispaniola does not guarantee the storm will dissipate. Some storms have interacted and survived even while disorganized


big size tropical storm Erika
Quoting 1169. tiggeriffic:


All of Erika's entire storm would fit into just the hurricane force wind field of Hugo.....yes, Erika is bigger than Danny was....but it is not a huge storm by any means.... and it would also fit within the hurricane wind field of Floyd......
its drowning some islands big enough for them I bet
I would discount all models until there is a defined LLC. This storm has had convection but never stacked like Danny.
tropical storm is moving slow now
1201. barbamz
Quoting 1172. barbamz:
New video of the catastrophic flash flooding in Dominica (Instagram).
More pics here and allegedly two persons died :-( I couldn't find any news report about this yet, though.


And another one from a collapsing house which gives you nightmares. Matches to what java162 is telling us from poor Dominica (post #1177).

Edit: Sorry for the double post. Missed the comment from skycyle:
Quoting 1189. skycycle:

The instagram account 'island360' has a few videos of the surge, serious stuff! Hope everyone is safe!
1202. Grothar
Quoting 1182. weathermanwannabe:

http://www.barbadosweather.org/barbados-weather-R adar-SABDriver.php

Here is the link to the Barbados weather service; a great resource for a storm moving through the Islands (and especially when the Doppler is up so we can actually see where the core is)




Thanks, weather. I appreciate it. And I promise I will never post an image from it. Just refer to it. Now I think I'll post the old one.
Quoting 1198. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its drowning some islands big enough for them I bet


I made the original comment that the storm has a HUGE amount of rain for such a small storm..... that is where it started.... some of those islands are smaller than a single city in an average state...so that comparison isn't what it was about...it was for the rain in a small field comparatively speaking....but thanks for your addition
I consider a Mona canal passage (or farther west) rather than a direct hit to PR more probable for Erika. Also, I consider winds not higher than 55 MPH at 11:00 AM (it could remain the same as 50 MPH).
Quoting 1193. CaribBoy:



Sad
you get anything yet
Quoting 1194. FOREX:

Erika may very well go West of DR and begin gaining latitude just before Eastern Cuba. Let's see what the experts say.


I agree..
1208. Grothar
Quoting 1202. Grothar:



Thanks, weather. I appreciate it. And I promise I will never post an image from it. Just refer to it. Now I think I'll post the old one.


NHC has actually used it (Barbados radar) and discussed it in many past advisories on storms passing through this region in terms of core structure issues and intensity..................See You in the PM...Work Calls.
Hey guys I'm back. I see that Erika is starting to get better.
Sooo is there a new llc or what exactly happened if anyone can enlighten me, because I thought that llc located around 16.7 N while broad was quite robust.
Quoting 1153. Grothar:

Do these look like a switch a little west?




Where's FL!
Quoting 945. number4steel:

is it about time for a lunar high tide ? I thought that there was a larger high tide this time of year ( august or sept) due to a lunar phase. if so , if this storm rides the coast line the flooding and surges would be higher?
Full moon Saturday.
Extremely high tides
Either way, the Islands got a lot more than they bargained for.
1216. Grothar
Quoting 1206. ILwthrfan:

We are going to see some changes again in LLC placement.

I think it's continuing to readjust to the south and east.

We now have some solid banding arcing to the west south west and to her south south west.

CLICK FOR LOOP



Sorry IL. After I finished clicking, I had to take a seasick pill.
Quoting 1206. ILwthrfan:

We are going to see some changes again in LLC placement.

I think it's continuing to readjust to the south and east.

We now have some solid banding arcing to the west south west and to her south south west.

CLICK FOR LOOP


ya got 2 mins to remove corrupt post pls
Quoting 1210. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks better this morning.
Let the HH determine the overall motion of the storm please guys

Quoting 1212. ElConando:

Sooo is there a new llc or what exactly happened if anyone can enlighten me, because I thought that llc while broad was quite robust.
It's still up in the air, but it appears the MLC as become dominate looking at radar, while the old LLC maybe in the process of being ejected.   Next 6 hours will likely answer that question for sure.
Quoting 1211. HurricaneAndre:

Hey guys I'm back. I see that Erika is starting to get better.


More outflow since last night. Still looking for a well defined center. Huge change in predicted intensity.
thanks ilw
We've seen this before. A cyclone builds it's inner core in a sheared environment and this tilts the LLC and MLC. The circulations actually compete against each other and either take days to eventually get stacked or never do and it never becomes anything more than a weak tropical storm.

What's Erika going to do? Our forecast models have no grasp on these situations and every intensity forecast out there can be thrown out the window until/if Erika stacks those circulations.
She might have opened up

better than yest
1226. FOREX
Quoting 1224. VAbeachhurricanes:

She might have opened up
You think she might be weakening?
Quoting 1224. VAbeachhurricanes:

She might have opened up
You really think so. Recon has found a closed low, so it's still a tropical storm.
1228. Gearsts
Erika looks like and open wave on radar.
Quoting 1171. HurrMichaelOrl:


2-3 " of rain over the next half a month hardly looks like a flood threat of any kind for us. That precip forecast obviously anticipates Erika will stay well offshore though. That can and may very well change.


You are going by the GFS the Euro however is showing 6" to 10" of rain over the next week across Eastern FL as the Euro hits FL directly with Erika. NHC might go with a Euro HWRF blend @ 11am
got to go nnw now to avoid shear too the ne and west of the storm up and out over pr

Quoting 1228. Gearsts:

Erika looks like and open wave on radar.


She might be a open wave right now as she is trying to burrow under the mid level low.
Recon finding some stronger winds in easern quadrants
While people are complaining about "Erika" being weak a serious situation is occuring on the island of Dominica.Flooding is some of the worst in the islands history.This proves once again it doesn't take a strong storm to do damage.
1234. Grothar
Quoting 1229. StormTrackerScott:



You are going by the GFS the Euro however is showing 6" to 10" of rain over the next week across Eastern FL as the Euro hits FL directly with Erika. NHC might go with a Euro HWRF blend @ 11am


Hey, Scott. For $50,000 I let you take a peek at my models. :):)


Erika moving west right now


Quoting 1231. StormTrackerScott:



She might be a open wave right now as she is trying to burrow under the mid level low.
Maybe reorganizing?
Here is the 0Z Euro run. Has it going up western FL. This might verify guys.

1238. FOREX
So we are back to RIP status?
Open wave yall say huh....west she goes
1240. Gearsts
Quoting 1238. FOREX:

So we are back to RIP status?


No...
1242. JRRP

16.332 N 63.240 W
Good morning guys

Just looked at Erika and recon the model etc...

Funny isn't it ... ... ...
1244. rxse7en
TWC is now saying Erika is "out of the cone."
Quoting 1236. HurricaneAndre:

Maybe reorganizing?


It is and that is why some can't come on and say FL is in the clear as these changes are very interesting this morning. Lots of unknowns especially with a direct hit on DR being likely now as opposed to what the 5am advisory showed.
Tropical storms don't usually eject LLCs I'm not buying it unless the NHC says so.
1247. guygee
Quoting 1169. tiggeriffic:


All of Erika's entire storm would fit into just the hurricane force wind field of Hugo.....yes, Erika is bigger than Danny was....but it is not a huge storm by any means.... and it would also fit within the hurricane wind field of Floyd......
She is big but not a monster, at least not yet. Hope she doesn't go through early puberty though.
1248. beell
Quoting 1166. BobinTampa:



I don't know what any of that means but I'm going to memorize it and repeat it around the office.


LOL! Have fun with it. I have been sitting on that post for two days. Had to post it-went to all that trouble!
Quoting 1243. wunderkidcayman:

Todd morning guys

Just looked at Erika and recon the model etc...

Funny isn't it ... ... ...


Not sure who Todd is or why this morning is named after him but, I'll go with it. Todd morning to you as well.
Good morning! Been lurking and appreciate all the great observations and predictions. Wondering if Erika can pass through that dry air patch past the shear if it would continue westward? Also noticing that plunging loop down into the GOM. Will that pull away soon or is that what will steer any system towards Florida? TIA!
1251. Drakoen
Either the center is relocating or Erika's circulation is terribly disorganized. Hope they investigate farther south.
Quoting 1138. weathermanwannabe:

Erika is starting to feel some moderate shear in her NW quad but what appears to be the core passing through the Lesser Antilles looks very healthy at the moment:




the center is south of PR. its a very unhealthy system
Quoting 1244. rxse7en:

TWC is now saying Erika is "out of the cone."


It is by quite a bit. People in Dominica got hammered last night with 50 to 60 mph winds and they were under no warning at all!
1254. Gearsts
That was fast.
WC is now saying Erika is "out of the cone and she is not a open tropical wave yet!
Quoting 1251. Drakoen:

Either the center is relocating or Erika's circulation is terribly disorganized. Hope they investigate farther south.


Where would it be relocated under the MLC?
Quoting 1244. rxse7en:

TWC is now saying Erika is "out of the cone."


Out of the cone in less than 24 hrs...... and what's the point of 3 day cone much less 5 days
1258. vis0


Quoting 33. washingtonian115:

"overarching message at this point is that residents from Florida to North Carolina should be aware of the possibility for a significant hurricane during the early to middle part of next week, and plan and prepare accordingly."

Edit:I put quotation marks on there for ya Nash :).

I've just checked my supplies in case something changes with the track.It's a good thing I did! because one of the batters in my flashlights have gone bad so I have to run out tomorrow and get a new one.Home depot is definitely on the "need to go there" list now.
i'm SuuuuuuuuuuURR...(**out of breath**...wait fer it..my 2nd breath must be the AM burritos) rrrRISEDD! at ya. You don't have a crank flashlight-radio-car battery recharger-burger flipper too?

BTW anyone whom has those, don't forget as you use them to say,  "GO GO GADGET!"
i see pas-ex-ghost-remnents of DANNY is off the Carolina coast.(left several zillies on my zilly blog)
Quoting 1254. Gearsts:

That was fast.

i saw winds in thw sourtheast side of 50 mph
1260. guygee
Quoting 1233. washingtonian115:

While people are complaining about "Erika" being weak a serious situation is occuring on the island of Dominica.Flooding is some of the worst in the islands history.This proves once again it doesn't take a strong storm to do damage.
True Wash, everyone should remember that inland flooding is the #1 killer from tropical systems.
based on hh data the system in elongated from nw to se. multiple lows can be seen trailing all the way back to her mlc

1262. rxse7en
Quoting 1253. StormTrackerScott:



It is by quite a bit. People in Dominica got hammered last night with 50 to 60 mph winds and they were under no warning at all!
That's awful. Seeing some of the videos coming out of Dominica is heartbreaking.
Quoting 1251. Drakoen:

Either the center is relocating or Erika's circulation is terribly disorganized. Hope they investigate farther south.


I was noting last night that the mid level low to the south was looking like it might become the new COC. Going to be an interesting 11am update. As DR could have a major impact on Erika as the terrain is very mountainous there. It could also reform north of DR too. Lots and lots of variable to go thru.
Quoting 1253. StormTrackerScott:



It is by quite a bit. People in Dominica got hammered last night with 50 to 60 mph winds and they were under no warning at all!


That's why I don't pay a damn attention where the center is on weak systems, it's all about where the deep convection is and that's where the storm is, because that's where the weather is!!
Quoting 1030. CaicosRetiredSailor:

Morning Baha... I'm doing preparations even though I don't expect much wind...
I haven't scrolled back, have there been any reports about rainfall yet from folks down island?



Mainly flash flooding due to heavy rain in Dominica. A few reports of feeder band type rain over PR....
Quoting 1250. midgulfmom:

Good morning! Been lurking and appreciate all the great observations and predictions. Wondering if Erika can pass through that dry air patch past the shear if it would continue westward? Also noticing that plunging loop down into the GOM. Will that pull away soon or is that what will steer any system towards Florida? TIA!


Check out Levi's site. Very informative.

Link
Quoting 1259. hurricanes2018:

i saw winds in thw sourtheast side of 50 mph


There are winds out there of over 60 but that means nothing if the LLC has opened up.
If it does not relocate under the deeper convection, she is done for now.
1268. FOREX
Quoting 1257. RitaEvac:



Out of the cone in less than 24 hrs...... and what's the point of 3 day cone much less 5 days
Guess we need hourly cones.
1269. rxse7en
Quoting 1257. RitaEvac:



Out of the cone in less than 24 hrs...... and what's the point of 3 day cone much less 5 days
I don't remember the last system to diverge this quickly from the 3-day.
Quoting 1251. Drakoen:

Either the center is relocating or Erika's circulation is terribly disorganized. Hope they investigate farther south.

Considering the huge amount of rain over Dominica the storm may be disorganizing, albeit momentarily
i really hate when storms look like this storms such has Erika they are such a pian and the the butt too forecast
1272. JRRP

terrible
Quoting 1269. rxse7en:

I don't remember the last system to diverge this quickly from the 3-day.


NHC has a lot to go thru over the next 45 minutes. Expect models to shift west today.
Quoting 1261. chrisdscane:

based on hh data the system in elongated from nw to se. multiple lows can be seen trailing all the way back to her mlc




TWC is talking about how disorganized Erika is.
1275. JRRP

Erika 2009

Erika 2015
1276. FOREX
Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel · 2m2 minutes ago
Air Force C-130 in #Erika finds 1004mb minimum pressure so far, way south of where yesterday's guidance predicted

Put her back in da' cone......
1278. K8eCane
Quoting 1234. Grothar:



Hey, Scott. For $50,000 I let you take a peek at my models. :):)



GRO! Thats illegal. What you are doing is illegal. :-P
Quoting 1252. boandjoe:



the center is south of PR. its a very unhealthy system
It's actually in the deep convection. Look at the recon data.
in the mean time Jimena is forecast too be come a strong cat 4 hurricane may be even a cat 5




all so Ignacio is forecast too be come a cat 3 storm





HI really needs too watch Jimena has that could be the biger story
Quoting 1273. StormTrackerScott:



NHC has a lot to go thru over the next 45 minutes. Expect models to shift west today.


really...that's some new information
This storm is gonna relocate farther south or something, too much weather/convection to the south. Look where the weather is



Looks like we are going to miss much of the needed rain... Dry air over us and Erika looks like leaving the big pack or rain S of us... BAD....
1285. MahFL
Starting to get a buzz saw look, unusual for a weak TS :

Quoting 1275. JRRP:


Erika 2009

Erika 2015


Hang on, I'm seeing double here...four Erikas!
1287. SSL1441
Quoting 1226. FOREX:

You think she might be weakening?


I think the exact opposite. Erika is relocating her LLC back under the thunderstorm mass, and that mass seems to be strengthening I believe. Feisty little storm we got here.
1288. guygee
Quoting 1274. Bucsboltsfan:



TWC is talking about how disorganized Erika is.
Disorganized but the pressure is still falling, albeit slowly.
Expect a shift but a Fl hit is not set in store. No need to panic. A much clearer picture will emerge once it clears the islands (if it survives). Be prepared and pay attention to the latest advisories.
Quoting 1288. guygee:

Disorganized but the pressure is still falling, albeit slowly.


Whats the latest pressure?
TRUE lol.

Quoting 1249. BobinTampa:



Not sure who Todd is or why this morning is named after him but, I'll go with it. Todd morning to you as well.


Sorry it's this auto correct on my apple device I hate this bloody thing sometimes lol

Good morning
Every single track and intensity model is quite irrelevant right now as there are what appears to be competing centers. Once this system stacks up - if it ever does - then we can say with more certainty where it'll hit, and how strong it will be.
Quoting 1245. StormTrackerScott:



It is and that is why some can't come on and say FL is in the clear as these changes are very interesting this morning. Lots of unknowns especially with a direct hit on DR being likely now as opposed to what the 5am advisory showed.


There's no threat of a direct hit on DR if she continues this WSW movement.
What eventual effect will the dry air ridge over GOM have on Erika? Will it pick her and take it to the Atlantic or will Erika keep moving into the GOM?

If this thing were to keep going west and south of the entire island of DR/Haiti....then we've got ourselves a whole nutta ballgame

Looks like Erika is doing its own thing right now.
Quoting 1284. sunlinepr:



Looks like we are going to miss much of the needed rain... Dry air over us and Erika looks like leaving the big pack or rain S of us... BAD....
Just a little more patience...by this time tomorrow you may be inundated.
is the 0900 - 1100a est timeslot the only time TWC speaks of actual weather? When I get home at 1800est, I get fat guys eating turtles and rodents. Before I leave for work, it is Today show 2.0

I gotta admit, Erika fooled me. I never said so on the blog, but I had her pegged N of VI's and PR. Looking back, a weaker system, fast paced; I should have seen this position.
1300. rxse7en
I wouldn't be surprised if we see another naked swirl appear in the upper NW quadrant of that heavy convection.

Edit: changed NE to NW. Just getting my second cuppa.
The 11am update should be interesting...
1302. FOREX
Greg Postel ‏@GregPostel · 28s28 seconds ago
12z #Erika guidance moving it *west* (270) @ 15 kts. I think that's it right there, becoming exposed like yesterday.

Quoting 1291. FLWxChaser:

TRUE lol.




Lol well I was saying yesterday and day before that to take the forecast by 24hrs out and no more well might just have to cut that to 8-12hrs lol

I suspect a nice shift in forecast cone soon

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I agree- turn your radars off and watch the cloud cover loops. Def nasty storm.

Quoting 1287. SSL1441:



I think the exact opposite. Erika is relocating her LLC back under the thunderstorm mass, and that mass seems to be strengthening I believe. Feisty little storm we got here.
1306. FOREX
Quoting 1296. RitaEvac:

If this thing were to keep going west and south of the entire island of DR/Haiti....then we've got ourselves a whole nutta ballgame


I believe someone posted earlier that there is a lot of shear just to the West waiting for Erika if she stays on her present track.
Not really good if its south of the cone, all that means is it will probably be forced to go over hispaniola maybe and get ripped apart.
1295 Sunlinepr, that was my earlier question also. Anyone?
Erika is fooling everybody, she deserve to meet the undertaker.
1310. guygee
Quoting 1290. Bucsboltsfan:



Whats the latest pressure?
I see this observation, but someone listed an ob of 1004 mb in the comments above.
14:03:00Z 1005.7 mb
Erika translation velocity appears (to my eyes) to be diminishing. The convection has not increased any more, but the cyclone looks healthy with some fluctuations in signature. (IMO)
1312. Drakoen
Quoting 1300. rxse7en:

I wouldn't be surprised if we see another naked swirl appear in the upper NW quadrant of that heavy convection.

Edit: changed NE to NW. Just getting my second cuppa.


The center is already exposed for viewing.
1313. JRRP
do you see the center?
Really flattening out on NW side. Shear increasing ahead:

1315. Patrap
A Funky Funktop Image

1316. Patrap



1317. Patrap
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for loop


1318. Grothar
Quoting 1304. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


NEW BLOG
Quoting 1306. FOREX:

I believe someone posted earlier that there is a lot of shear just to the West waiting for Erika if she stays on her present track.




got to turn too wnw up an over gap pr/dr
1321. Grothar
HWRF seems to have moved considerably west. With some possible reorganization the new models will of course be quite different.

1322. Grothar
11 not out yet, but may be a little surprise
1323. Grothar
1324. Grothar
Quite a shift west.
1325. Dakster
"Hard to make decsions on what to do when the forecast is "unusually uncertain".

At least Gro has a button for shutters...
I'll allow those with superior intelligence on microwave imagery to decipher this one for me lol.

Uncertainty is the correct word.
1328. LargoFl