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Epsilon refuses to obey the rules

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:45 PM GMT on December 04, 2005

Epsilon refuses to obey the rules. Not only has Epsilon refused to die as expected--it has strengthened in the past day to near Category 2 strength. Epsilon is traversing 22-23C waters, which are a full four degrees C (7 F) below what is normally thought of as the minimum needed to allow a hurricane to strengthen. The upper level winds are unfavorable--Epsilon was been under 20 knots of shear the past two days. It is unusual to see a hurricane intensify in the face of 20 knots of shear (although Wilma managed to do so). It is unheard of for a hurricane to intensify in the face of 20 knots of shear, and with 22C water temperatures under it. Like I've been saying about this entire Hurricane Season of 2005, the normal rules do not apply. Epsilon is another storm that we do not understand, and I hope someone out there in grad school is taking data on this storm and writing a Ph.D. thesis on it!

Epsilon will continue to hang around most of the week. A strong ridge of high pressure has built over it, forcing it on a eastward track that will keep it from passing over really cold 20C waters to the northeast that would have surely killed it. By Wednesday, this ridge of high pressure is expected to force Epsilon southward and then southwestward towards warmer waters. However, by this point, the shear over Epsilon should be somewhere near 40 knots, which should be able to rip the storm apart. This should put a end once and for all to the Hurricane Season of 2005. I don't expect anything else to develop this month, since forecast wind shear levels over the Caribbean Sea the next ten days are now looking only marginally favorable for tropical storm formation.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

It is the Hurricane season of 2005.....anythings possible
yep, but i think it may have ahd its last laugh with epsilon's strengthening today.
I doubt it's over. The 2005 season can't resist another shot, I think.
I have to admit that Ive learned a great deal about hurricanes this year.....what a tremendous hurricane season......one I will never forget....Its kind of scary that the rules as we know them are not as solid as we once thought.....and just maybe that next year will show us some even more extreme weather events.......I do not think that we have even come close to what mother nature is capable of doing...........
to my less trained eye the shear values are high but only if Epsilon's course is as predicted - a slight shift in course and the environment to the could be more favourable..
snowboy what kind of shift in Epsilon's forecast course is needed to keep the shear over Epsilon less?
i agree fsu. this is just the beginning. look at the last 5-10 years and notice the increasing trend in extreme weather events all over the world. there have been a lot of records broken.

yeah snowboy its in between the very favorable and the very unfavorable on its current course
Can you guys even imagine if we had access to the earths full history of hurricanes and weather events..........simply astonishing.....
Could Epsilon get to the Caribbean Area by next weekend??

And I Hope everyone saw how for the First Time the NHC talked in a NON-FORMAL Setting in their Report

Becuse they are sooo Stumped over this along with Wilma and Vince
it would be astonishing fsu

st, if it shifts slightly west while looping the shear becomes 10-15kts instead of 30-40kts
I'm only an amateur, but I have noticed a few things in watching Epsilon lately. The circulation field was once gigantic, and has contracted to barely 1/3 of it's former size. I suspect this is at least partially responsible for the strengthening. Physics maintains angular momentum, so when the field contracted, it should actually speed up the winds near the center. Also the shallowness of the system makes it more resistant to the shear. The only thing that remains to be explained, then, is how convection can be maintained with such cold SST's. Perhaps the contraction of the wind field plus a certain amount of baroclinic energy combined with the what heat energy is available from 22-23C water was just enough to maintain convection and allow the contraction of the wind field to push wind speeds higher.
xealot you are absolutely right. as the wind field contracts and tightens, the air masses flow around the center quicker since they dont have to go around the center on such a long course. and, because this is a hybrid like storm (partly tropical, partly extratropical), it needs less oceanic heat to maintain. but thtas what science says; there could be another reason as well which we dont know about
Whats up St. Simons........How are you?......Now we have to understand what particular shear are we talking about.........at 30000 feet, at 20000 feet, at 40000 feet, that greatly determines the affects on any hurricane, and for the most part, most hurricanes that we have discussed are ones with circulations intact from the surface all the way up to 40000 feet......i also want to point out that the earth is not a perfect circle and the atmosphere is not equal in height and nothing is uniformed such as the winds direction, speed and heights........the fanning over epsilon is taking place at what heights in the atmosphere......if the thunderstorms are topping out at 25000 feet then the fanning is approximately 26000 feet.......all hypothetically speaking......but I think that these ideas are taking place at some capacity......very interesting
Xealot.........right on.........the water temps dont have to be that warm to maintain lower topped storms.......
Great Physics Work Xealot Iw Was Explained It Very Well
And Epsilon is not truly tropical. Much of it's energy is coming from baroclinic differences, not latent heat.
exactly dcw
Think we need new weather phenomenon terminology. Instead of hurricane Epsilon, how 'bout 'rotating nor'easter Epsilon'.
Hey StSimonsIslandGAGuy, had to duck out for a bit. The WU shear forecasts can be found here (don't know how to post those cool links yet):
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

There is a path that Epsilon could follow which would see minimal shear on the way to the southwest (essentially aiming at the Leeward Islands). Current NHC track takes it south of this optimal (for maintaining/building strength) course into an area of high shear, but Epsilon hasn't even done the big turn yet so there can not be much confidence in the subsequent predicted southwest course.
It's not a nor'easter. Epsilon is really a subtropical system, in that part of it's energy is from latent heat and part is from baroclinic differences.
Thanks snowboy! It almost looks like there is a bridge from
Epsilon to the Leeward Islands.

Been doing great FSU how about you?
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 38.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
winds cut to 80 mph in new advisory.
Hmmm...even on the NHC's track, that shear isn't too high...first December major, anyone?
New NHC advisory:
REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.3 N... 38.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

New NHC Discussion:
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

EPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED
BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY
STATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE
STRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70
KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
SINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE
WAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.

EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10
KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE
EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW
SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
MUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
EAST PACIFIC.
no way dcw. its had its last laugh, and so has 2005
HAHA! Epsilon 1, Front 0!!!

No extratropical transition this time...O_O I wonder how long this is going to go...
Hanging in there....I guess the 2005 season made its mark just about everywhere..........I know you got your share......I know this is sick but this year blew by....If it were to drop down to a less then average season, I wouldnt know what to do with myself.........
what do you mean
FSUboy just wanted to say hello to you. Tis the season of 2005. Also hope that you had a good Thanksgiving.
Heys Raysfan.......you too.......hope everyone made it thru my favorite holiday.......I like it because its about being with your family....and to me, thats the most important part of our lives, spending time with family..........
Mid-level wind shear instead of upper-level looks like it's almost zero, except for what seems like the shear it's creating itself. That might explain why it doesn't seem to be getting very much affected by wind shear.
I honestly don't see why Epsilon cannot at least reach cat. 2.

Hey, I have an idea. Let's try blissful ignorance. Maybe if we just ignore the storms, they will go away.
Good thinking AySz88 to look at the mid-level shear which is indeed low.

So from today's discussions we have a number of possibly interrelated explanations for Epsilon's persistence:
- Epsilon's clouds tops are lower, staying below the strong upper level winds and thus not affected by them;
- mid level shear is low;
- storm's windfield has been contracting in size, and the conservation of angular momentum has allowed Epsilon to actually strengthen while doing so despite otherwise unfavourable conditions (eg. cool SSTs)

It will be fascinating to see what track Epsilon takes to the southwest. If it follows the "bridge" of low shear to the Leeward Islands it will be moving over progressively warmer SSTs.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

But on the shar tendency, you can see that Epsilon will turn into increasing shear...though the caribbean is dropping now :S
*chuckles at sidebar ad*

"If they're under 4'9", they need a booster seat"

Apparently, I needed one till I was 14 and a half.
So does anyone think epsilon it could make a visit to the canary islands?
I doubt it, op. There'll be a ridge there blocking any unwelcome visitors.
nice link Colby, but look at where Epsilon is headed - first into lower shear environment as it does the big loop and then depending on its course if it finds the "bridge" there's a low shear path all the way to the Leewards.

Take a look at the WU 3 day shear forecast:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

There's a pretty little bridge (tightrope?!) for Epsilon to cross unscathed as it moves southwest toward the Leewards.
nope, Canarys are not on the itinerary
42. rlk
It's still at a fairly high latitude. A couple of things I'm wondering about here:

1) In general, storms that reach higher latitudes often seem to be more resistant to shear than low latitude storms. I remember that one of the discussions on one of the storms this year (Wilma perhaps, late in its life?) mentioned this. In addition to the baroclinic assistance and lower tops, perhaps the greater Coriolis effect at higher latitudes helps to stabilize the circulation?

2) Another possibility I'd wonder about for how it sustains itself over such cool water is that there's still plenty of instability, at least up to the middle levels of the atmosphere, due to the season and the higher latitude making for a colder atmosphere in general. There may not be enough energy release (from the lower moisture content) to allow for another Wilma, but there's evidently enough to allow for a significant warm core system. Even a fairly minimal hurricane (and Epsilon has been on the higher end of cat 1) is a significant warm core system. Perhaps Vince was the same kind of situation?
Hey guys and/or gals. Glad to see all of you are keeping up on this storm for us! I just caught up on all of your posts and still don 't feel any more confident that Epsilon is going to go away anytime soon....
will keep an eye out on this blog from time to time to see what is happening. Thanks to all of you!
Gamma
snowboy~ i noticed that "bridge" lastnight, thought of it more as an easy path to the carribian. Ha, I wasn't suprised at all to still see her a hurricane today. Like Vince, lives & thrives against all odds. Therefore, i can't even begin to figure the odds of her strollin down the path of least shear. i figure though the models haven't figured on something (they just don't totally get this one, probibly cause we don't either) & that path opening, might be it. We'll see if the model's soon demise pans out or not.
I think it will landfall near morocco as a category 100mph CAT 2 hurricane as the strongest hurricane ever to hit africa
Hi seflagamma we are indeed keeping an eye on Epsilon, which is hopefully not a taste of storms to come. Lots to learn from it, as it rewrites the rules...

And yes Skyepony if Epsilon can "cross the bridge" (more like "dance the tightrope") then anything is possible. By Wednesday evening we should have a fair idea how this is going to pan out - stay tuned!
hey Cairo according to all model predictions Epsilon is not heading for Africa
With that last 5 PM descussion, they say it will be remnant low within a few days. With the contingencies of this storm, I doubt it will go away as it will be moving over warmer waters. This thing has already showed it can battle strong shear, cold water temps and still intensify to an almost CAT 2. They said yesterday that Epsilon was in its waning stages. She will survive.

BB73
yeah but look at her now trouper; she is definitely weakening and her structure looks very poor compared to earlier this afternoon
supercell agree she's looking a bit ragged on recent satellite images, but we've seen that before
Appears that the eyewall is contracting a bit.
Epsilon's eyewall (if you can call it that) is beginning to open up in the southeast quadrant, and overall there is an east-west elongation of the circulation indicative of slow weakening. However the eye itself is still strong and very obvious. I suspect the wind field is unable to contract further, causing the storm to begin to spin down. Even with energy from some baroclinic forcing, a tropical or sub-tropical system cannot long survive over water temps like that. Epsilon will have to make it through the "bridge" of low shear into at least 24-25C SSTs for it to survive. I figure by morning, Epsilon will no longer be a hurricane.

Epsilon has surprised us several times already, however.. so one cannot say for certain.
she will not be a hurricane tonight
it is tonight right now is it?
i mean 10pm advisory
oh i got it now ha ha lol
it is making a ese turn
I woke this morning, expecting for sure that Epsilon would have been downgraded to a TS. Remarkable that it has held on to hurricane status this long.
supercell that would be early for the turn - what are you basing the observation on?
My favorate shear site is down, it's got a java movie loop of the shear to come for days. Lastnight it showed the low shear bridge develop. I'm not really suprised though cause it's the navy site. Alot of times i spot some thing interesting on there, like last week the navy gfs showed something in the gulf forming at the end of 1 run, next several runs you couldn't look at the end of the loop! The navy gfs is like that again with the last several hours unavailable, but the navy nogaps is showing something in the extreme sw gulf developing then immediatly hitting Mexico. Link
Tropical Storm Arlene 06/08 - 06/12 70 989
Tropical Storm Bret 06/28 - 06/30 40 1004
Tropical Storm Cindy 07/03 - 07/06 70 997
Hurricane Dennis 07/05 - 07/11 150 930
Hurricane Emily 07/11 - 07/21 155 930
Tropical Storm Franklin 07/21 - 07/29 70 997
Tropical Storm Gert 07/23 - 07/25 45 1005
Tropical Storm Harvey 08/02 - 08/08 65 994
Hurricane Irene 08/04 - 08/18 100 975
Tropical Depression Ten 08/13 - 08/14 35 1008
Tropical Storm Jose 08/22 - 08/23 50 1001
Hurricane Katrina 08/23 - 08/30 175 902
Tropical Storm Lee 08/28 - 09/02 40 1007
Hurricane Maria 09/01 - 09/10 115 960
Hurricane Nate 09/05 - 09/10 90 979
Hurricane Ophelia 09/06 - 09/18 85 976
Hurricane Philippe 09/17 - 09/24 80 985
Hurricane Rita 09/18 - 09/25 175 897
Tropical Depression Nineteen 09/30 - 10/02 35 1006
Hurricane Stan 10/01 - 10/05 80 979
Tropical Storm Tammy 10/05 - 10/06 50 1001
Tropical Depression Twenty-two 10/08 - 10/09 35 1008
Hurricane Vince 10/09 - 10/11 75 987
Hurricane Wilma 10/15 - 10/25 175 882
Tropical Storm Alpha 10/22 - 10/24 50 998
Hurricane Beta 10/27 - 10/31 115 960
Tropical Storm Gamma 11/14 - 11/21 45 1004
Tropical Storm Delta 11/23 - 11/28 70 980
Hurricane Epsilon 11/29 - 12/04 85 979
155 894 Category 4 Hurricane

hmmm how can we have winds of 155 with a 894mb? any one
snowboy

look at the goes floater, the last 3-4 frames takes it south of east, and it is long enough to be a short-term motion, not a jog.
Looks like the eyewall is contracting, that could be causing the movement, or appearance of.
So if it does curve south faster than they predicted, is that better for the storms survival?
The models all predict the turn and the models ALL dissipate the system shortly after the turn.
I think it'll still be a hurricane at 10pm but down to 75mph
The eye is still very well maintained except for the weakness in the SE section. Still yellows and a bit of orange in the NW section of the eye wall.
Hurricane Energizer...it keeps going...and going...and going...
Got sidetracked looking around~ this goes along with the offseason storms. one has formed every month with several in dec & may. this Link has little maps of them all as you scroll down.
KRWZ, you asked a question many of us are asking.
tornadoty oh what you mean?
this is also great fun~ see if your city got into the top 52 most hurricane affected cities (includes US, Mexico & Carribian). Mine got an honorable mention (right under #52). It will be interesting to see where it ranks after 2005 is averaged in.
Your question about why Wilma had 155 MPH winds and an 894 MB pressure.
i do not think that we can have winds of 155 and a 894mb i think the winds where a little bit higher then that like uo to 165mph
KRWZ, if they do change the peak to 185 MPH, as it seems they will, then that may very well change too, as may the Yucatan landfall, which The Weather Channel was saying may change the very day it did make landfall.
WARNING: Possible spoilers for reanalysis results and changes

There have been changes in peak intensity on the physical big wall board in the NHC offices.
Epsilon is looking alot sharper on the newest floater images
I think Emily is still being debated because Cindy and Wilma were the most obvious changes needed.
I am not changing my prediction of a cat. 2 that I made a night or two ago.
I just saw the floater loop. What the h-e-double hockey sticks is going on?! This is the most impressive convective burst I've seen! This thing could be well on its way to cat. 2 if this keeps up.
lets not get too overexcited torn. dvorak numbers are still decreasing, there remains a lack of deep convection in the se eyewall, and its still a long way behind the structure of early afternoon.
What's the link for the latest GOES floater? The latest I get is two hours old.
83. dcw
Two hours? Is there a blackout this time of year?
84. dcw
*Eclipse, sorry.
just hit refresh
86. dcw
The 00z model runs initialize at 65kt...I can't beleive they're weakening it. It's clearly not any weaker than it has been earlier today...
i have to disagree there. plus, the dvorak estimates have decreased dramtically in the last 4 hours. it is just barely a hurricane.
Hey dcw, the latest CIMSS reading is 4.3/972 MB/73kts. Could this be an indication of the extratropical transition?
4.3 is not that far off of 4.5, if indeed that is where it peaked. I'm working off of hear-say because I was away this afternoon.
torn, it wont become extratropical, it will just weaken gradually as it reaches colder waters and then dissipate when it turns and encounters 40-50kt shear
yes but the mean cloud temp has decreased considerably and the raw t-numbers are dropping below hurricane strength.
Sat representation has increased during the last few frames and I suspect that the intensity will remain the same at 10pm update The eye is better than it was when it was 85 mph
Matilda, the models are run 2 hours before an advisory with the intensity they're going to use. They ran them based on Epsilon being a minimal hurricane, for some bizzare reason.
Now this would be the storm to get a hurricane hunter in and see 1st hand the dynamics of why Epilson is behaving the way it is. It would greatly increase our knowledge of hurricanes
the eye is becoming cloud-filled, there is almost no deep convection in the southeast quadrant and the eye is elongated. so what indicates strengthening or even consolidation out of those trends?
Supercell I must disagree with you. Go to NHC sat pics and see for yourself. The eye is better symetical than it was all day and deeper convection is trying to all the way around the center.
I don't see why if a change is warranted between model runs and the advisory that the change would not be made. It has obviously strengthened even since the last T-numbers came in.
do you guys really believe they will hold it at 80 mph?...
The ? is will it Hit land in like Puerto Rico or the US? in like 1 week
it wont affect any land masses
And And

Does Anyone know the Number on
The Most Hurricane Days in a Season?
I know the Most Named Storm Days and Intense Hurricane Days
Supercell, read hurricanechaser's blog. He conveys my thoughts pretty well.
He's got some Great Blogs with Tons of Great Information
yeah so how come they lowered the winds to 75mph at the 10pm update?
Seems like *some* kind of shear is getting to it. You can see the convection that used to be the east side of the eyewall seemingly getting blown off to the northeast. I'm not sure what's going on there.

The whole convective blowup in general seems to be waning.
1. They are relying moslty on data, not the images. Most of the data is from before the blowup of convection.

2. They probably just want to see a little more consistency before they overrule the data.
great the storm is moving southwards again :/ its coming back :P
Hey everyone,

I just wanted to stop in and say hello before I have to leave for awhile...

These are important excerpts from my current blog...

Right now, I feel confident that she will remain a hurricane with the next update at 10 PM EST from the NHC and should maintain its 80 mph intensity. On the other hsnd, it seems like the NHC wants to downgrade it as soon as possible. Honestly, if the current trend noted in the last couple of frames were to continue, a case could be made for an upgrade back to 85 mph winds once again if not more. Regardless, it's definately still a hurricane and should be for at least another 12 hours or so if not more.

heres the post in my comment section only 15 minutes or so ago before the latest advisory came out...
Posted By: hurricanechaser at 2:27 AM GMT on December 05, 2005.
Hey everyone,

Before I go for awhile tonight, I thought I would comment on the very latest Infrared satellite imagery which shows conflicting evidence regarding Epsilons future intensity.

First, it is quite obvious that Epsilon has reorganized its eyewall and there has been an increase in the convection surrounding its eye. On the other hand, it is also evident that its overall circulation is being disrupted by some stronger wind shear on its weatern side. The question is whether that shear will continue to erode the circulation and make its way to the convection surrounding the eyewall. We will need to watch for at least another 3 hour trend which should answer this question. Right now, its definately still a strengthening hurricane from a few hours ago with the center of circulation. We shall see which trend is the more dominate factor during the next few hours.
Could you guys post a couple links so I can see some visuals of Epsilon. And, to the all mighty Dr. Jeff Masters, could you post at the beginning of your thread, some model animations so people not so in-tune with the weather scene can continue to learn more? I know its late in the season, however it would make things a bit more luxurious around this somtimes very hecktik place.
Trouper: try http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html


That's why the Dvorak is down, their center position is way off...
God I Hate the Weather Channel More and More each day They Make Epsilon like it's nothing Just because "it's way out there not affecting anyone" THEY SHOULD SHOW HOW AMAZING IT IS AT LEAST LOOK AT THE DATE PEOPLE!!!

Sadly most non-weather people use TWC but I Try to get people to use NWS / NOAA
i calculate it to be 5 miles northeast of the 10pm advisory position, not that much
That is very interesting Colby. Yes, yes, I can see how that could royally screw the measurements.
i agree totally snowboy. I HATE THE WEATHER CHANNEL
snowman sorry lol
My advisory tonight:

Hurricane Epsilon
Amateur Hurricane Center
Advisory 10 - 10:00PM EST December 4, 2005

Inexplicable Hurricane Epsilon continues spinning across the north atlantic tonight. The storm was looking rather unhealthy a few hours ago...but once more, convection has wrapped around the center and is deepening more than ever before. Dvorak intensity estimates are 4.3/72kt, so the initial intensity will be 70kt.

The track reasoning remains unchanged, with Epsilon moving east for another 24 or so hours...followed by a sharp turn to the southwest. The forecast is very close to the model consensus and agrees with the NHC track, given the excellent consensus.

The intensity forecast...well...I'm not entirely sure there should be one. Given the wrapping up of convection tonight, I'm going to forecast a slight intensification...back to 75kt...at 12 hours, followed by the previously shown slow weakening. However, it is important to remember that Epsilon has been absolutely un-forecastable...and that 50kt of shear at the end of the forecast period may not harm it in the slightest. The forecast no longer shows Epsilon becoming extratropical, due to the front that was forecast to cause the transition passing the storm right by.

Initial: 34.2N 37.3W 70kt
12 Hour: 34.0N 35.8W 75kt
24 Hour: 33.4N 34.3W 65kt
48 Hour: 31.2N 34.9W 55kt
72 Hour: 28.0N 38.0W 45kt
96 Hour: 25.0N 41.5W 35kt...dissipating
120 Hour: 22.0N 45.0W 30kt...remnant low


As always, you can find my advisories at my website, www.theahc.webhop.net
I third that snowman. And fourth it. And fifth it. And sixth, seventh, and eighth it.
Hey its Gamma again, I see you are all still keeping up with things so I will continue to check in from time to time to see what you are all talking about. Be sure and give us plenty of warning if we need to start paying more attention to Eppie or anything else out there!
Thanks!
They are sooooo "media" like. THe TRY to attract all people or as we would call them "INCOMPETANT PEOPLE" "oh and here's Epsilon no big deal, so we will talk about light rain in LA for abou 5 min." Our Beloved Amazing Epsilon dear dear dear Should Get More Credit.
Agreed~ the weather channel offers little to learn or much to see.

The navy shear loop is back up. Shows the bridge or path of lessened shear to the Carribian. Also shows it being a little narrow & the energy being thrown more there with an anticyclone forming near the Leewards. If it still has convection or if the reminants would gather any, we'll have to see. By the looks of this i'll hazard we haven't seen it at it's strongest yet.
Skyepony - that "channel" is WAY to the west of Epsilon. It'd have to be back where it was doing that loop to catch that area of low shear.
Oh wait, I see the other channel now - that might be just the remnants of Epsilon though, since the little pocket of greens in the first frame (Epsilon) is already disappearing in the second frame.
Okay, never mind me, I got the timing wrong (didn't realize they were only 6 hour increments). There needs to be an overlay of some sort. So yeah, Ep has some outside shot at surviving until it can catch that low shear.
hey AySz88, Epsilon is like the energizer hurricane - just keeps on going! Looks just fine on the IR and WV floaters as it gets ready to make the big turn and head southwest. Note that there are different shear forecasts out there, which are not consistent with one another... I've been working from the WU one.
It's strengthening again, Dvorak will be 4.5 again shortly

*rolls eyes* This may be the first intensity forecast I get right, lol.
Hey Colby, now all you have to do is hope for it NOT to keep strengthening! :)
well colby at least you wont be underestimating her strength; she is no longer a hurricane based on dvorak numbers and satellite presentation. i cant see her returning to anywhere near the intensity of this afternoon
Shear will take over tonight, already into the core convection on the west side. May get a last whooorahh tonight then a quick dissipation.
Supercell, I really don't know what you are seeing. The IR loop clearly shows the eye becoming better defined and slowly contracting as the deeper convection contiunes to wrap around the circulation. Clearly strengthening.

IR Loop
Good night. Time for sleep.
hey all what up i got a ? for all of you

ok her it go lol

did the perfect storm ever be come a hurricane and was it a cat 5? if so did it get a name? and did the andrea gail go down in that storm?
Yes it did but it was not a Cat.5 and it was called Hurricane Grace I'm from RI so lol
Don't know where you heard Cat. 5
but in the movie they said 140kt and they said look like we are looking at a cat 5
Hey everyone,

I can simply repost my earlier comments from the comment section of my blog because the latest infrared is showing the same thing from about two hours ago.
Theres no doubt that the convection has increased around the center and is wrapping all the way around the eye with colder coud tops. On the other hand, the shear from the west is trying to impinge from the west side and has eroded the cloud pattern on its SW side.

Honestly, it could go either way right now depending on the next 3 to 6 hour trend. Which will be the dominate factor by the time the next advisory comes out from the NHC.

At this moment, the core of the hurricane is more intense than 3 hours ago while shear has also increased from the west and sw eroding the overall circulation on the west and SW sides. At this time, that shear hasn't penetrated Epsilons central core and if it doesn't do so, Epsilon could still intensify.

Here's my post from earlier..the same still applies from 921 PM EST.

Hey everyone,

Before I go for awhile tonight, I thought I would comment on the very latest Infrared satellite imagery which shows conflicting evidence regarding Epsilons future intensity.

First, it is quite obvious that Epsilon has reorganized its eyewall and there has been an increase in the convection surrounding its eye. On the other hand, it is also evident that its overall circulation is being disrupted by some stronger wind shear on its weatern side. The question is whether that shear will continue to erode the circulation and make its way to the convection surrounding the eyewall. We will need to watch for at least another 3 hour trend which should answer this question. Right now, its definately still a strengthening hurricane from a few hours ago with the center of circulation. We shall see which trend is the more dominate factor during the next few hours.

In short,

DCW, Tornado, and Supercell each have good points with such conflicting evidence. However, if I had to make an intensity estimate based strictly on the latest satellite imagery, the renewed convection around the eye supports an upgrade back to 80 mph winds in my opinion. It's all about the persistent trend that will become more evident over the next few hours.

I hope you all have a great night.:)

dont trust movies lol
what year was Hurricane Grace in link
Progressive and supercell, you sounds like the folks at NHC. They've been predicting the imminent demise of Epsilon since she first became a TS.

Here are quotes from the last 3 days:

10 pm Dec. 1st, when she had winds of 65 mph and pressure of 992 mb:
EPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT
12-24 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.

10 pm Dec. 2nd, when she had winds of 75 mph and pressure of 987 mb:
WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW
SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF
CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

10 pm Dec. 3rd, when she had winds of 75 mph and pressure of 987 mb:
EPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE
IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN
COOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND.

10 pm tonight she had winds of 75 mph and pressure of 985 mb...

Looks like convection is going to wrap its way around the whole sucker pretty soon.

And could someone please explain those T-storm numbers and their inpact on a certain storm being a hurricane or not etc. Thanks
The October 31st Halloween Perfect Storm was in 1991 David:)
Hey Trouper, I wrote a blog on the Dvorak scale if you want to look in my archives from a couple of weeks ago.:)
Heres the link to the blog I wrote explaining the Dvorak intensity scale..look for the November 23rd entry with that title. I hope this helps a little.:)

Link
SNowboy I LOVE IT!!!!
thanks Snowman - I see we share an affinity for snow...
in the moveing how high was the sea?
snowboy

i did not at any time forecast the demise of epsilon. i wish you wouldnt put words in my mouth; i simply said that her trend based on satellite observations and dvorak intensities was on a decrease. i also said that she was "no longer a hurricane", not "no longer a tropical cyclone". please dont exaggerate. and i was partly right because the 10pm advisory lowered the winds to 75 mph when the "apparent increase in organization was beginning to occur". sorry i caused anyone to be upset or angry at me. ust giving you my view based on the facts i have.
hey supercell I am really sorry - not trying to put words in your mouth and certainly not upset with you. Just having fun with this amazing hurricane, and the fact that we're ALL (including NHC) struggling to understand it and that none of us is having much luck with predictions.
Note that latest floater images (IR, WV) look sharper...
apology accepted snowboy, lets get back to epsilon
This Hurricane should get an award of some sort.
i agree lightning; it has stunned us all
not sure if it deserves mvp, but mabe the forecasters' award
... maybe the "Stump the Forecasters" Award?

Anyway, am off for tonight, can't wait for tomorrow's surprises. G'night all.
Hello all,
caught up on all of your postings and I see our Epsilon is driving everyone crazy! LOL... I will continue to check in to this blog and see how it is going. Counting on all of you to keep us updated and informed. For now Gamma is off to bed. Thank you all !
I Gave that Award to Vince on my Records
But I have just added a ton of Stuff into the "Non'Number Records" Part on Epsilon And WILMA Gets "the best and most amazing Hurricane ever" by far (I hate to say it but i hat any time the Media talks about Katrina when Wilma was about 10X MORE Amazing in meteorogical terms of Statistics and Such)
Well I can admit when I am wrong. The eyewall was falling apart earlier in the SE quadrant but has begun to rebuild itself. The convective blowup on the west side should be grounds for an increase in intensity despite the overall state of the circulation, which is a bit more ragged than before. There's no real explanation for this, as the wind field has already contracted and I cannot see another source for the energy to maintain such intensity.

I would estimate an intensity of 75kt again, and a possibility of reaching 80kt if the eyewall closes off in the NE quadrant. Nonetheless I don't think Epsilon can pull much more out of it's bag of tricks. I figure this is the last such recovery we will see unless the cyclone manages to track in the 'bridge' of low shear to warmer waters. If that were the case, we could see a regeneration further south.
Hey All~ was out checking on that proposed policy change that would stop NWS & etc from duplicating the weather info that the private sector could provide from the reasearch & info that the NWS & etc produces with the americian tax payer's money~ basically only 138 people commented (shame shame, after all our hard work & Dr Masters urgings). Though I noticed wunderground was mentioned more than once in the comments. 128 against (yeah), from the public. 7 for, including a long letter from the weather channel. 1 completly off topic. & 2 against because it wasn't clearly stated well enough that the government would hand over all the weather info to privite industry & stop forecasting all together ~ 1 was accuweather & the other was National Council of Meteroligists (who by the way recomends NOAA not only stop forecasting but to help privite industry find the most profitable ways to package info for private industry to sell back to us). Though i could use a little help decifering if NOAA has decided to screw us & go with the proposed change or if they are still deciding, like everything else of this matter, it is vague. Link Any thoughts? perhaps leave them in my blog(click on my name above to find, since it hasn't been updated lately it's fallen into the deeps of blogdom). When we can figure out what the vertict was or that they're deliberating still, i'll update the abused political blog.

AySz88~ glad you figured out the shear model. took me a little while to get used to it but the loop, bright colors & fair accuracy made me come back til it was second nature.lol

Snowboy~ yeah, I checked out the wunderground models you posted earlier, they say pretty much the same. That one i posted is neat cause it points out the anticyclones & it loops a java movie for it's forecast (i'm a sucker for loops). Here's the home page for it. you can acsess the high color one i posted earlier, the NGP & AVN. They all show a survivable bridge to the Leeward with an area of 0 shear at the end of the bridge, growing as time goes on (& in the case of the 1st one showing a healthy anticyclone developing~ if it's Ephilon or something else or an anticyclone with no convection ~ we gotta wait). But like i say~ they're models, fun to watch, but no clear crystal ball.
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON IS THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD.
TWENTY-SIX NAMED TROPICAL STORMS FORMED...BREAKING THE OLD RECORD
OF 21 SET BACK IN 1993. THIRTEEN STORMS BECAME HURRICANES...
BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 12 SET BACK IN 1969. SEVEN OF THE
HURRICANES BECAME MAJOR HURRICANES...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...INCLUDING THREE...KATRINA...
RITA...AND WILMA...WHICH REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1851 THAT THREE CATEGORY FIVE STORMS HAVE BEEN
KNOWN TO OCCUR IN A SEASON. THE SEASON ALSO INCLUDED THREE
DEPRESSIONS THAT DID NOT REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

IN CONTRAST...BASED ON THE AVERAGE FOR THE LAST 40 YEARS...IN AN
AVERAGE SEASON THERE WOULD HAVE BEEN 11 NAMED STORMS...6 HURRICANES
...AND 2 MAJOR HURRICANES.

THESE NUMBERS COULD CHANGE...AS CINDY MAY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
AT LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA...AND EMILY MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.

ARLENE FORMED ON 8 JUNE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND
BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 9 JUNE ABOUT 170 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. ARLENE MOVED SLOWLY
NORTHWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND CROSSED WESTERN CUBA NEAR
CABO CORRIENTES WITH WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE STORM CONTINUED NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE IT REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 MPH. THEREAFTER...ARLENE WEAKENED AND MADE LANDFALL NEAR
PENSACOLA FLORIDA WITH 60 MPH WINDS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVED NORTHWARD FARTHER INLAND AND WAS ABSORBED BY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON 14 JUNE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ONE STUDENT
DIED IN A RIP CURRENT TRIGGERED BY ARLENE AT MIAMI BEACH FLORIDA.
THE DAMAGE CAUSED BY ARLENE WAS MINIMAL.

TROPICAL STORM BRET ORIGINATED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND A WEAK AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM 24-27 JUNE. ON THE 28TH...THE
ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LATER THAT DAY
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE CYCLONE QUICKLY
STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM. BRET MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN EARLY ON 29
JUNE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 MPH IN A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE
CENTER. THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO LATER
THAT SAME DAY. BRET PRODUCED FLOODING IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ...
WHERE THERE WAS 1 CONFIRMED DEATH. HOWEVER...SEVERAL PERSONS...IN 2
VEHICLES THAT WERE SWEPT AWAY BY FLOODWATERS IN NARANJOS VERACRUZ
...WERE REPORTED MISSING.

TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMED ON 3 JULY IN THE EXTREME WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN-BELIZE BORDER. THE CYCLONE
MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEFORE EMERGING
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON 4 JULY. ONCE OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM
EARLY ON 5 JULY AS THE CYCLONE TURNED NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE VERY
WARM WATER AHEAD OF CINDY... ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DUE
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR UNTIL JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WHEN MORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OCCURRED. CINDY MADE LANDFALL AT NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY EARLY ON 6 JULY OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE. CINDY TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND
PASSED OVER THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA LATER THAT DAY. EXTRATROPICAL CINDY MOVED
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE ON 11 JULY. THE MAIN EFFECT FROM CINDY WAS HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT CAUSED FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...MUCH OF ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AND GEORGIA. AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW... CINDY ALSO PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG AND EAST OF
THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. CINDY CAUSED ONE DEATH IN GEORGIA DUE TO
FLOODING. DAMAGES CAUSED BY CINDY WERE MINIMAL.

HURRICANE DENNIS DEVELOPED ON 4 JULY FROM A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM ON 5 JULY...AND STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE EARLY ON 6 JULY
ABOUT 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA. DENNIS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE 7 JULY... AND A
STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 150 MPH ON 8 JULY JUST
SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. DENNIS PASSED OVER CABO CRUZ CUBA EARLY ON 8
JULY WITH WINDS OF 135 MPH... AND THEN MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA THAT AFTERNOON NEAR CIENFUEGOS WITH
WINDS OF 145 MPH. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CUBA...INCLUDING WIDESPREAD UTILITY AND COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGES. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...DENNIS PASSED VERY NEAR HAVANA AND
WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON 9 JULY. ALTHOUGH DENNIS
RE-INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE EARLY ON THE 10 JULY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IT WEAKENED TO CATEGORY 3
STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
NEAR NAVARRE BEACH LATE ON 10 JULY. DENNIS WEAKENED TO A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON 18 JULY.

FORTY-ONE DEATHS WERE REPORTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH DENNIS...22 IN
HAITI...16 IN CUBA...AND 3 IN THE UNITED STATES. CONSIDERABLE STORM
SURGE RELATED DAMAGE OCCURRED NEAR ST. MARKS FLORIDA...WELL EAST OF
THE LANDFALL LOCATION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS
MUCH OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDED WELL INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS
ESTIMATED AT $1.84 BILLION.

EMILY FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON 11 JULY ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. MOVING WESTWARD...THE
DEPRESSION BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE FOLLOWING DAY. ON 14 JULY...
JUST AS EMILY WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
IT ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AND BECAME A HURRICANE VERY NEAR GRENADA
...AND LATER THAT DAY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IT MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 155 MPH...JUST
BELOW THE CATEGORY 5 THRESHOLD...WHEN IT WAS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EMILY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
THEN STRUCK COZUMEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO ON 18 JULY
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 135 MPH. EMILY CROSSED THE YUCATAN AND
WEAKENED...BUT BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EMILY MADE ITS FINAL LANDFALL ON 20 JULY IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER...
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 125 MPH. EMILY THEN WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED
THE FOLLOWING DAY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

FIVE DEATHS HAVE BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO EMILY... 1 IN GRENADA AND 4
IN JAMAICA. HOWEVER...A FINAL COUNT OF THE CASUALTIES IS NOT YET
AVAILABLE. DAMAGE ASSESSMENTS ARE ALSO ONGOING AND ESTIMATES ARE
NOT YET AVAILABLE.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE AND BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 21 JULY NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. IT BECAME
A TROPICAL STORM THAT EVENING...BUT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
REMAINED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. FRANKLIN TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE STRENGTHENING TO
ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 MPH ON 23 JULY. DURING 23-26 JULY...
FRANKLIN MOVED ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF BERMUDA... AND WINDS WEAKENED TO 40 MPH BY 25 JULY DUE
TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA BY
FRANKLIN WAS ABOUT 185 MILES TO THE WEST ON 26 JULY...AND NO
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRED ON BERMUDA. FRANKLIN THEN MOVED
SLOWLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION ON 27-28 JULY WHILE ITS
WINDS RESTRENGTHENED TO NEAR 60 MPH. ON 28 JULY... A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND ACCELERATED
FRANKLIN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FRANKLIN BEGAN TO WEAKEN AFTER
PASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM EARLY ON 29 JULY... BECAME
EXTRATROPICAL LATE ON 29 JULY... AND MERGED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE
WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON 30-31 JULY. NO REPORTS OF
DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO FRANKLIN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

TROPICAL STORM GERT FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON 23 JULY AND
MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GERT MADE LANDFALL NEAR
CABO ROJO ON THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE ON 24 JULY WITH 45
MPH WINDS. GERT BROUGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THOSE AREAS THAT
HAD BEEN AFFECTED BY HURRICANE EMILY LESS THAN A WEEK EARLIER. GERT
DISSIPATED WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ON 26 JULY. NO REPORTS
OF CASUALTIES OR DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

HARVEY FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA
ON 23 JULY. THIS WAVE SHOWED SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVED
WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS... BEFORE
EMERGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON 29 JULY. AN
ASSOCIATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CROSSED HISPANIOLA ON 30 JULY
AND MOVED NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM ORGANIZED INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 2 AUGUST ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
BERMUDA. MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED
INTO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ON 3 AUGUST. ON 4 AUGUST...HARVEY TURNED
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST... PASSED ABOUT 45 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND STRENGTHENED TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY
OF 65 MPH. BERMUDA REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 51 MPH WHEN HARVEY PASSED BY. THE STORM TURNED NORTHEASTWARD ON
6 AUGUST AND STAYED ON THAT GENERAL HEADING FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.
IT LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON 8 AUGUST ABOUT 535 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THE LARGE AND POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LINGERED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE FINALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY ON 14 AUGUST. NO REPORTS OF
DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO HARVEY HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

HURRICANE IRENE WAS A LONG-LIVED CAPE VERDE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT
REMAINED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME AND BECAME
A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WELL TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. IRENE
FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 1
AUGUST. IT DEVELOPED INTO A DEPRESSION ON 4 AUGUST ABOUT 690 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...BUT TURNED NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS COOLER WATERS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WAS HALTED UNTIL 7 AUGUST
WHEN IT STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE MOVED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
10 AUGUST. IRENE TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
CAPE HATTERAS ON 14 AUGUST. IRENE TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 105
MPH ON THE 15TH. THE HURRICANE TURNED TO THE EAST AND WEAKENED.
IRENE THEN MOVED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND
BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT 295 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND ON 18 AUGUST. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE
TO IRENE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON 13 AUGUST
ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSED THE WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE THE NEXT DAY. THE
REMNANTS OF TD-10 MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL 20 AUGUST... AND
THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL PART OF THE SYSTEM LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF HURRICANE KATRINA. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR
CASUALTIES DUE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

JOSE WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT FORMED FROM A TROPICAL
WAVE ON 22 AUGUST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ABOUT 80 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT
DAY...AND MADE LANDFALL LATE THAT EVENING ABOUT 35 MILES NORTH OF
VERACRUZ WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 50 MPH. JOSE SOON DISSIPATED
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO. JOSE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 6
DEATHS IN MEXICO.

KATRINA WILL LIKELY BE RECORDED AS THE MOST DEVASTATING HURRICANE IN
THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES...PRODUCING CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE
AND HUNDREDS OF CASUALTIES IN THE NEW ORLEANS AREA AND ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST... AND ADDITIONAL CASUALTIES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. KATRINA WAS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ESTIMATED 1200
DEATHS IN THE UNITED STATES... MAKING IT THE DEADLIEST U. S.
HURRICANE SINCE THE PALM BEACH-LAKE OKEECHOBEE HURRICANE OF
SEPTEMBER 1928. KATRINA ALSO CAUSED AN ESTIMATED $80 BILLION
DOLLARS IN DAMAGE... MAKING IT THE COSTLIEST U. S. HURRICANE ON
RECORD.

THIS HORRIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...
BECOMING A DEPRESSION ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS ON 23 AUGUST. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE FOLLOWING DAY.
KATRINA MOVED NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN TURNED
WESTWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENED. KATRINA
BECAME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AND MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE
MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD COUNTY LINE DURING THE EVENING OF 25 AUGUST.
KATRINA MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...DUMPING OVER A
FOOT OF RAIN... TOPPLING TREES AND POWER LINES... AND DAMAGING
HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. KATRINA
ALSO BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS AND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. AFTER ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO
...KATRINA STRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY... REACHING CATEGORY 5
INTENSITY ON 28 AUGUST ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LATER THAT DAY... KATRINA'S WINDS REACHED
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 175 MPH AND THE PRESSURE FELL TO 902 MB...WHICH
WAS AT THE TIME THE FOURTH LOWEST PRESSURE ON RECORD. KATRINA
TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH... MAKING LANDFALL IN
PLAQUEMINES PARISH LOUISIANA JUST SOUTH OF BURAS WITH AN
OPERATIONALLY ESTIMATED 140 MPH WINDS...CATEGORY 4...AT 610 AM CDT
ON 29 AUGUST. CONTINUING NORTHWARD...KATRINA MADE A SECOND LANDFALL
NEAR THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER AT 1000 AM CDT...WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OPERATIONALLY ESTIMATED AT 125 MPH...CATEGORY 3. POST-STORM
ANALYSIS OF KATRINA'S INTENSITY IS STILL IN PROGRESS. KATRINA
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED INLAND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT WAS STILL A
HURRICANE 100 MILES INLAND NEAR LAUREL MISSISSIPPI. KATRINA
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR
CLARKSVILLE TENNESSEE ON 30 AUGUST.

TROPICAL STORM LEE DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...FIRST BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON 28 AUGUST ABOUT
925 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATED
THE FOLLOWING DAY...BUT ITS REMNANTS REDEVELOPED INTO A DEPRESSION
AND THEN A STORM ON 31 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM THEN QUICKLY WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED THE NEXT DAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO LEE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

MARIA DEVELOPED FROM A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT CROSSED THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA ON 27 AUGUST. THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ON 1 SEPTEMBER WHILE CENTERED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD...THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON 2
SEPTEMBER. MARIA TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAME A HURRICANE
ON 4 SEPTEMBER. PEAK INTENSITY...115 MPH... WAS REACHED EARLY ON 6
SEPTEMBER WHEN THE CYCLONE WAS CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. MARIA RECURVED NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
STORM BEFORE REGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY ON 7 SEPTEMBER. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THE INTENSITY SLOWLY DECREASED... AND MARIA WEAKENED
TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 9 SEPTEMBER. MARIA BECAME A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ABOUT 730 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ON 10 SEPTEMBER. THE STORM
MOVED INTO SCANDINAVIA ON 14 SEPTEMBER... WHERE IT CAUSED A
LANDSLIDE AND 1 DEATH IN NORWAY.

HURRICANE NATE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF
AFRICA ON 30 AUGUST. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE BROKE AWAY
AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTERACTED WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED LATE ON 5
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA...AND THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM JUST 6 HOURS LATER. NATE
DRIFTED NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
INTO A HURRICANE BY 7 SEPTEMBER. EARLY ON 8 SEPTEMBER...NATE
QUICKLY ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND BRIEFLY THREATENED
BERMUDA. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE PASSED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE ISLAND AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON 9
SEPTEMBER. SLOW WEAKENING CONTINUED AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASED
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND NATE TRANSFORMED INTO
A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON 10 SEPTEMBER ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS. EXTRATROPICAL LOW
NATE CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MERGED
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THAT DAY ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO NATE HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED.

ERRATIC HURRICANE OPHELIA FORMED FROM AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ALONG THE WESTERN END OF AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE BEGAN
TO ORGANIZE ON 4 SEPTEMBER OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED ON 6 SEPTEMBER NEAR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION MOVED ERRATICALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAME TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ON 7
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 115 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA MEANDERED OFF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...BRIEFLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON 8 SEPTEMBER. OPHELIA BEGAN A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE ON 9 SEPTEMBER...WHICH CONTINUED UNTIL IT
AGAIN STALLED ON 11 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 235 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. DURING THAT TIME...IT TWICE REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.
OPHELIA MADE A SLOW LOOP ON 12-13 SEPTEMBER...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
AND NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE BEGINNING A NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE CYCLONE BECAME A HURRICANE YET AGAIN LATE
ON 13 SEPTEMBER...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REACHED 85 MPH BY THE
TIME THE NORTHERN EYEWALL REACHED THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR
CAPE FEAR ON 14 SEPTEMBER. OPHELIA TURNED SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
WITH THE CENTER PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND CAPE HATTERAS ON
15 SEPTEMBER. IT THEN WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON 16
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. OPHELIA
ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST LATER ON 16 SEPTEMBER AND PASSED EAST
OF CAPE COD THE NEXT DAY. THE STORM TRANSFORMED INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON 18 SEPTEMBER...PASSED
OVER NEWFOUNDLAND ON 19 SEPTEMBER...AND REACHED THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC ON 21 SEPTEMBER. EXTRATROPICAL OPHELIA DISSIPATED OVER THE
NORTH SEA ON 23 SEPTEMBER.

ONE DEATH WAS ATTRIBUTED TO OPHELIA...A DROWNING ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE STORM CAUSED AN ESTIMATED $1.6
BILLION IN THE UNITED STATES...WITH SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION NOTED
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST.

PHILIPPE FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON 17
SEPTEMBER ABOUT 305 MILES EAST OF BARBADOS. THE DEPRESSION BECAME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY. PHILIPPE MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENED...BECOMING A
HURRICANE ON 19 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. PHILIPPE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 MPH EARLY THE
FOLLOWING DAY. CONTINUING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER OPEN
WATERS... PHILIPPE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATE ON 20
SEPTEMBER. THE CYCLONE TURNED NORTHWARD AND ITS CIRCULATION BECAME
EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ON 22
SEPTEMBER. ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE WITHIN THE LARGER LOW...
PHILIPPE TURNED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...AND WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THE NEXT DAY. THE CIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE WAS ABSORBED
BY THE NON-TROPICAL LOW EARLY ON 24 SEPTEMBER. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE
OR CASUALTIES DUE TO PHILIPPE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

RITA WAS AN INTENSE...DESTRUCTIVE... AND DEADLY HURRICANE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE FLORIDA KEYS AND DEVASTATED PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. RITA BECAME A DEPRESSION
JUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE ON 17 SEPTEMBER. IT
MOVED WESTWARD AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON.
CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON 19 SEPTEMBER...RITA
APPROACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH 70 MPH WINDS. WHILE RITA DID NOT
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FOLLOWING NIGHT...IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED ON
20 SEPTEMBER WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT REACHED
CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY AS THE CENTER PASSED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF
KEY WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER DID NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS...IT DOWNED TREES AND PRODUCED STORM TIDES OF UP TO
FIVE FEET IN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN... FLOODING SECTIONS OF
U.S. HIGHWAY 1 AND MANY OTHER STREETS...AS WELL AS SEVERAL HOMES
AND BUSINESSES.

AFTER ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO... RITA INTENSIFIED AT A RAPID
RATE... FROM CATEGORY TWO TO CATEGORY FIVE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...
WITH WINDS REACHING 165 MPH ON THE AFTERNOON OF 21 SEPTEMBER. THE
HURRICANE STRENGTHENED FURTHER AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 175
MPH EARLY ON 22 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 570 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
GALVESTON TEXAS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 897 MB...WHICH AT THE
TIME WAS THE THIRD LOWEST ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. RITA
BEGAN TO WEAKEN LATER THAT DAY... BUT AS IT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO... IT PRODUCED STORM SURGE FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE
NEW ORLEANS AREA THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN INUNDATED BY KATRINA.
RITA TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE ON 23
SEPTEMBER. IT THEN MADE LANDFALL AROUND 230 AM CDT 24 SEPTEMBER
JUST EAST OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER BETWEEN SABINE PASS AND
JOHNSON'S BAYOU...STILL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY WITH 120 MPH
WINDS. RITA CAUSED DEVASTATING STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WIND DAMAGE
IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. IT
WEAKENED AFTER MOVING INLAND...BUT REMAINED A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL
REACHING NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE ON 24 SEPTEMBER. IT THEN
TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM TWO DAYS
LATER. RITA CAUSED 6 DEATHS AND DAMAGE ESTIMATED AT $9.4 BILLION IN
THE UNITED STATES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORMED ON 30 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 665 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD AND DISSIPATED ON 2 OCTOBER ABOUT 780 MILES WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO
TD-19 HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

STAN DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE THAT GENERATED A PERSISTENT
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN LATE
SEPTEMBER. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EVENTUALLY FORMED ON 1 OCTOBER
ABOUT 110 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THE CYCLONE MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS JUST BEFORE
CROSSING THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT 40 MILES
SOUTH OF TULUM MEXICO ON 2 OCTOBER. STAN TRAVERSED YUCATAN AND
WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION... BUT IT SOON REGAINED TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AFTER IT MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON 3 OCTOBER. THE
STORM TURNED FROM A WESTWARD TO A SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING AND
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. STAN BECAME A HURRICANE AS IT NEARED THE
COAST OF MEXICO ON 4 OCTOBER AND MADE LANDFALL LATER THAT DAY ABOUT
90 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERACRUZ WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT
80 MPH. THE CYCLONE WEAKENED RAPIDLY AFTER MOVING INLAND AND
DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ON 5 OCTOBER.

AROUND THE TIME OF STAN'S EXISTENCE...TORRENTIAL RAINS CAUSED SEVERE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA...INCLUDING GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...NICARAGUA... HONDURAS
...AND COSTA RICA. THE ESTIMATED DEATH TOLL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM RANGES FROM 1000-2000. AS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED
...STAN ITSELF WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR 80 OF THESE DEATHS.

TAMMY WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM THAT DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AS A RESULT OF COMPLEX INTERACTION
BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A TROPICAL WAVE. EARLY ON 5 OCTOBER
...TAMMY QUICKLY DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 20 MILES
EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE CYCLONE MOVED STEADILY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST MOST OF THE
DAY... BEFORE IT TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR MAYPORT VERY LATE THAT DAY WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. TAMMY MOVED WESTWARD OVER
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA ON 6 OCTOBER BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OCCURRED TO
STRUCTURES... BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES DID PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA.

SHORT-LIVED SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORMED ON 8 OCTOBER
ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA FROM A NON-TROPICAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AND
DEGENERATED INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 175 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA ON 10 OCTOBER. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION MERGED
WITH A COLD FRONT ON 11 OCTOBER AND BECAME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE
CENTER OFF THE U. S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON 12 OCTOBER. THIS LOW
WAS ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW ON 14 OCTOBER. NO REPORTS
OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES DUE TO STD-22 HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

VINCE... THE FIRST KNOWN TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
SPAIN... DEVELOPED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW GRADUALLY ACQUIRED TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON 9 OCTOBER ABOUT 515
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. IT STRENGTHENED AND
BECAME A HURRICANE LATER THAT DAY AS IT MOVED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. IT WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
STORM THE NEXT DAY AS IT ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ON 11
OCTOBER... VINCE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR HUELVA SPAIN. VINCE LOST TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE
OR CASUALTIES DUE TO VINCE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED.

WILMA FORMED FROM A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT STRETCHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER.
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY BECAME DEFINED NEAR JAMAICA
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND ON 15 OCTOBER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVED
ERRATICALLY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD FOR TWO DAYS WHILE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. WILMA BECAME A HURRICANE AND
BEGAN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON 18 OCTOBER. LATER THAT DAY...
WILMA BEGAN TO EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN. ON 19 OCTOBER IT BECAME A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...AND ITS MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO
AN ESTIMATED 882 MB... WHILE ITS VERY SMALL EYE WAS CENTERED ABOUT
365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE ON
RECORD FOR A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. WILMA'S MAXIMUM
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEEN 175 MPH. ON 20 OCTOBER WILMA
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ON 21 OCTOBER...THE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL OVER
COZUMEL... AND EARLY THE NEXT DAY IT MADE LANDFALL OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... BOTH AT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.
WILMA MOVED SLOWLY AND WEAKENED OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND
EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON 23 OCTOBER AS A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE. LATER THAT DAY IT TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATED
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENED
AS IT APPROACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST... AND IT MADE
LANDFALL NEAR CAPE ROMANO ON 24 OCTOBER WITH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING FLORIDA
IN LESS THAN 5 HOURS. WILMA MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PALM BEACH AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. IT REGAINED CATEGORY
3 STATUS JUST OFF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENED THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE MOVED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ABOUT 205
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ON 25 OCTOBER.

AT THIS TIME...22 DEATHS HAVE BEEN DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTED TO WILMA.
WILMA CAUSED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE IN NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN...INCLUDING
CANCUN AND COZUMEL...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE ALSO
PRODUCED MAJOR FLOODING OVER WESTERN CUBA. DAMAGE IN THE UNITED
STATES IS ESTIMATED AT $14.4 BILLION.

DUE TO THE EXTREMELY ACTIVE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON... THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME HAD TO RESORT TO USING THE
GREEK ALPHABET WHEN TROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORMED FROM A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 21 OCTOBER. SHOWER
ACTIVITY BECAME CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO... AND RADAR DATA
FROM THE ISLAND HELPED DETERMINE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED
EARLY ON 22 OCTOBER. THE DEPRESSION BECAME TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LATER THAT DAY. ALPHA MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND DATA FROM HISPANIOLA
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL NEAR BARAHONA IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH 50 MPH WINDS. ALPHA WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA... AND IT CONTINUED
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC ON 23 OCTOBER. THE CYCLONE WEAKENED TO A TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHED THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA ON 24
OCTOBER. ALPHA CAUSED 20 DEATHS IN HISPANIOLA...PRIMARILY FROM
FLOODING CAUSED BY HEAVY RAINS.

BETA DEVELOPED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON 25 OCTOBER. THE SYSTEM BECAME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE NEXT DAY ABOUT 170 MILES EAST OF THE COSTA
RICA-NICARAGUA BORDER. THE DEPRESSION MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS... BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ON 27 OCTOBER. BETA
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE ON 29 OCTOBER NEAR PROVIDENCIA
ISLAND. IT THEN TURNED WESTWARD AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON 30 OCTOBER. BETA
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY LATER THAT DAY AND MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE ON THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LA BARRA.
THE CYCLONE MOVED WESTWARD OVER LAND AND DISSIPATED OVER WESTERN
NICARAGUA EARLY ON 31 OCTOBER.

BETA CAUSED WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ON PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. EXTENSIVE
DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES WAS REPORTED ALONG THE CENTRAL NICARAGUAN
COAST. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALSO OCCURRED IN HONDURAS.

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT SPAWNED GAMMA PASSED THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON 13 NOVEMBER AND PRODUCED WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. EARLY ON 14
NOVEMBER... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORMED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF ST. VINCENT
ISLAND. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND MAY HAVE
BRIEFLY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON 15 NOVEMBER BEFORE
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DISPLACED THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO THE EAST AND CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE BACK INTO
A TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMNANTS OF TD-27 ACCELERATED WESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON 17 NOVEMBER BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND
REACHING THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN HONDURAS ON 18
NOVEMBER. A LARGE NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPED OVER
PANAMA AND MOVED NORTHWESTWARD AND MERGED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TD-27 OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS... AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT TROPICAL
STORM GAMMA FORMED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS LATER THAT
DAY. WHILE THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY AIDED THE
GENERATION OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF TD-27 MAINTAINED CONTINUITY
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFETIME... AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION OF THE OTHER NON-CONVECTIVE LOW MERGED WITH THE REMNANT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TD-27 OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL
HONDURAS. GAMMA DRIFTED NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND STRENGTHENED TO 55 MPH EAST OF ROATAN ISLAND ON 19 NOVEMBER
...AND TURNED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ON 20-21 NOVEMBER. UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WEAKENED THE CYCLONE AND IT DEGENGERATED INTO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW LATE ON 21 NOVEMBER AND DISSISPATED ON
22 NOVEMBER JUST EAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER.

HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSED FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HONDURAS AND
BELIZE. AT THIS TIME... THE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH GAMMA HAS
RESULTED IN A TOTAL OF 37 DEATHS... 34 IN HONDURAS AND 3 IN BELIZE.
AT LEAST 13 PEOPLE IN HONDURAS WERE ALSO MISSING. TEN BRIDGES WERE
DESTROYED AND 7 MORE WERE DAMAGED IN HONDURAS.

DELTA ORIGINATED FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. ON 19 NOVEMBER THIS SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1050 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE LOW MOVED EASTWARD AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD... REACHING A POSITION ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE AZORES ON 22 NOVEMBER. THE LOW TURNED SOUTHWARD LATER THAT DAY
AND DEVELOPED INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM. DELTA CONTINUED SOUTHWARD
ON 23 NOVEMBER AS IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM...AND WINDS REACHED AN
ESTIMATED 70 MPH THE NEXT DAY WHILE THE STORM MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD.
DELTA MOVED ERRATICALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 26 NOVEMBER WHILE
WEAKENING...THEN IT TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND AND STRENGTHENED ON 27
NOVEMBER...WITH WINDS AGAIN REACHING 70 MPH. DELTA TURNED EASTWARD
AND BECAME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL LOW ON 28 NOVEMBER ABOUT 350
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
BROUGHT WIND GUSTS OF HURRICANE FORCE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS ON 28
NOVEMBER BEFORE WEAKENING AND MOVING INTO MOROCCO ON 29 OCTOBER.
SEVEN DEATHS ON OR NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS WERE ATTRIBUTED TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF DELTA.

TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR...DEVELOPED FROM AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE AZORES AND BERMUDA ON 29 NOVEMBER. EPSILON MOVED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOWLY STRENGTHENED.... AND AT MONTH'S END WAS
LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF BERMUDA AND MOVING
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


SUMMARY TABLE

NAME DATES MAX WIND DEATHS U.S. DAMAGE
MPH $MILLION
---------------------------------------------------------------
TS ARLENE 8-13 JUN 70 1 MINOR
TS BRET 28-29 JUN 40 1 0
TS CINDY 3-7 JUL 70 1 MINOR
H DENNIS 4-13 JUL 150 41 1840
H EMILY 11-21 JUL 155 5 MINOR
TS FRANKLIN 21-29 JUL 70 0 0
TS GERT 23-25 JUL 45 0 0
TS HARVEY 2-8 AUG 65 0 0
H IRENE 4-18 AUG 105 0 0
TD TEN 13-14 AUG 35 0 0
TS JOSE 22-23 AUG 50 6 0
H KATRINA 23-30 AUG 175 1200 80000
TS LEE 28 AUG - 1 SEP 40 0 0
H MARIA 1-10 SEP 115 0 0
H NATE 5-10 SEP 90 0 0
H OPHELIA 6-17 SEP 85 1 1600
H PHILIPPE 17-24 SEP 80 0 0
H RITA 18-26 SEP 175 6 9400
TD NINETEEN 30 SEP - 2 OCT 30 0 0
H STAN 1-5 OCT 80 100 0
TS TAMMY 5-6 OCT 50 0 MINOR
STD TWENTY-TWO 8-10 OCT 35 0 0
H VINCE 9-11 OCT 75 0 0
H WILMA 15-25 OCT 175 22 14400
TS ALPHA 22-24 OCT 50 20 0
H BETA 26-31 OCT 115 0 0
TS GAMMA 13-20 NOV 55 37 0
TS DELTA 22-28 NOV 70 0 0
TS EPSILON 29 NOV - ?? DEC 70 0 0
Honestly...It is so obvious that Epsilon regained some intensity since their 11 PM EST advisory. However, I did mention in my last update in my blog that I could see the NHC maintaining the 75 mph intensity because they are expecting a weakening trend instead of focusing on its current intensiy. Just my thoughts on the subject.. Heres their latest advisory for 4 AM EST...



Link
oops..messed up the link..heres the latest update instead.:)


HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON MAINTAINING STRENGTH OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.2 WEST OR ABOUT 590
MILES... 950 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH
...17 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.8 N... 36.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.


THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Hey everyone,

Here is my last post for tonight which is based upon the very latest Infrared satellite imagery.:)

Here is the latest Infrared satellite loop showing Epsilon had indeed intensified quite a bit between advisories and has just begun to lose a little of its deeper convection on its Southern side of the eye. This may very well be why they decided to leave it as a 75 mph hurricane since the current trend during the last couple of frames shows a definate weakening trend. Once again, it's a matter of persistence to see if this new trend will continue as the shear may be trying to penetrate the central core or Epsilon may very well redevelop the deep convection back around its center as it did earlier this morning as evident in the first few frames of this satellite loop.

Honesly, it's looking like the shear and some dry air is getting pretty close to Epsilons inner core based on the last couple of frames. Consequently, I would have to agree with the 75 mph advisory intensity based upon the lastest satellite imagery. On the other hand, it definately reintensified for about a 3 to 4 hour time period between these two advisories and if they had put out a 1 AM EST advisory, it would've or at least should have reflected that as an 80 mph hurricane. Right now, if this current trend continues as it appears it might, Epsilon could very well be downgraded by the 10 AM EST advisory.

I hope you all have a goodnight.:) I definately need to get some sleep.:)


Is there any chance of a hurricane hunter flight into Epsilon or otherwise gathering extra information? This storm is telling us something and we should be paying close attention.
What determines whether a storm is studied in extra detail?
Hey gipp,

The NHC doesn't send out the hurricane hunters unless a storm crosses the 55 degree longitude line. This is mainly due to logistics and the limited amount of funding that they get to perform these missions throughout the season.

ok, I need to really get some sleep.:)

I hope you and all the others have a wonderful night and a good day tomorow.:)
I think I might have figured out what's going on with Epsilon, with this die-in-afternoon-and-rule-in-the-morning cycle. Here is my thinking...

-Epsilon is a fairly shallow system under massive upper-level shear.
-Epsilon is obviously not entirely tropical, given its survival.

So what is happening is that Epsilon, being the tenacious storm that it is, wraps convection around the center, which then deepens. BUT, if the cloud tops get too high, they get chopped off, breaking up the eyewall again. If Epsilon encounters warmer water, it may be able to build those tops up faster than the shear can blow them away...but it could also become deep structured and die as the shear hits its core.
I am a storm spotter in MN. I have been doing this for about 6 years. My thought on Epsilon,now that it is forcasted to move into warm waters. Also, looking at the expected track. I am concerned that it may head back towards the USA as a hurricane. Please share your thoughts.
Hey Everyone, (8:12 AM EST UPDATE)

I can't believe I'm still up but I had to watch for that 3 to 6 trend I keep refering to. Naturally, Epsilon decides to once again fight off the shear and has wrapped the convection back around its eye. Moreover, she has also improved her sheared cloud structure on its SW side from earlier this morning.

Therefore, Epsilon is in another intensification phase and it appears that this one may continue through the 10 AM EST advisory where it may have its winds increased back to 80 to 85 mph by that time. On the other hand, Epsilon continues to go through these fluctuations in intensity resulting in a weakening phase for about an hour or two followed by some reintensification during the suceeding 2 to 3 hours. These intensity changes have alternated back and forth since yesterday evening. Right now, it's looking as though the westerly shear isn't impacting it as much as it was during the previous 6 to 8 hours.

Therefore, the question is whether hurricane Epsilon can keep a persistant 3 to 6 hour trend of these colder convective cloud tops wrapped completely around its center without the shear and some dry air infiltrating its inner core. Honestly, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see Epsilon regain its peak intensity once more or even possibly slighly stronger. On the other hand, Epsilon hasn't yet been able to sustain this increased convection for longer than a 2 to 3 hour period which isn't long enough to see any significant increase in the winds with the system.

Consequently, if these 2 to 3 hour fluctuations continue alternating as they have been through the past 12 hours, I would expect it to simply maintain hurricane intensity and remain a 75 mph storm.

Regardless, I believe Epsilon should at the very least maintain hurricane intensity for another 6 to 12 hours or so if not a little longer. However, I believe it's only a matter of time within the next 12 to 24 hours or so before the increasing shear does finally penetrate Epsilons inner core and causes it to gradually weaken to a Tropical storm.

I am going to try and forget about Epsilon for the next 8 hours so I can get some much needed sleep.:) I hope everyone has a good day and I hope to talk with you again soon.:)
MNstorms: If Epsilon can survive another 24-48 hours, it has a corridor of low shear and warmer waters that can carry it towards PR and the Leewards. This, of course, makes perfect sense...that's the only area that hasn't been hit by a hurricane this season...
Epsilon is too far away...the water is too cold...the shear is too high...it can't survive...looks like we can throw all that out the window...this is Hurricane Season 2005!
morning everyone - Epsilon is still a hurricane as of the 10 am NHC discussion advisory. Everyone is flummoxed.

Another quotable excerpt from the discussion:
EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE
COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS
MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY
MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS
AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.

And here from the advisory:
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...HURRICANE EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...FUTURE INTENSITY
UNCERTAIN...

Current stats:
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N... 35.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.
Hey everyone,

I am still up wanting to see if the strenthening trend would make it through the 10 AM EST advisory as I expected in my 8:12 AM EST update. Sure enough, Epsilon has continued to wrap these colder convective cloud tops completely and consistently around its center with improved cloud structure with no current evidence of any impending shear affecting the system. Therefore, I feel that my earlier expectation of a sustained intensification trend of more than 6 hours could very well increase Epsilons winds to its peak intensity if not slightly stronger. Honestly, if Epsilon could continue to resist this shear for another 12 hours or so, category two intensity is not impossible.

However, there is still strong westerly shear that can once again begin impinging on the circulation at any time and bring a quick halt to such intensification. We just need to keep looking for persistence. Right now, that persistence has materialized with the strengthening phase and thus it has resulted in increased intensity with the latest advisory from the NHC.

I am now going to try and get that much awaited sleep.:) I hope everyone has a great day.:) Keep watching Epsilon, it will be interesting to say the least.:)

Your friend,
Tony
*rolls eyes*

Could someone tell Epsilon it's NOT September??
Hey,

Is Puerto Rico part of the Hebert box? I know I am spelling that wrong? If so, south FL could expect it say, around the 15th?

Hahahaha
hey Francis, it's watch and wait with this hurricane to see how far it gets - there are daily predictions of its imminent demise, but none have come to pass. What does seem clear is a major shift in direction which will have curve around heading south tomorrow and southwest starting Wednesday. How far it progresses to the southwest and exactly which course it will take are not clear - the forecasts all have it falling apart any day now, but they've been predicting that for a week
Am Looking at the Season records that Dr Masters posted on 1 Dec - and I think if Eplison keeps making like an energizer bunny and keeps going - another record may fall!!!

Dr Masters listed:
Notable near records for the season

- Second highest number of named storm days: About 115 and counting, as Epsilon continues. All time record: 120.5 (1995). We may beat this record yet, if Tropical Storm Zeta forms!

So if we had 115 days of named storms back on 1 Dec - we have 119 now on the 5 December right? So if Epsilon hangs in there one and half days more - another new record will be set?

Snowboy Great Work again! lol
Actually
119.25 by this afternoon So Tuesday Night it will tie it IF
Good morning everyone,
I see you were up all night watching this confounding event called Epsilon. Can't believe I get on line now and catch up and this hurricane is still with us and strengthen again. I see you are all keeping up with the updates and I wish you all a good day and will check back in later.
Thanks for your information.
Gamma
jeff as a new blog up
new blog up!