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EPA Chief Denies Basic Climate Science

By: Jeff Masters 9:27 PM GMT on March 10, 2017

Scott Pruitt, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), said on Thursday that carbon dioxide was not a primary contributor to global warming. On CNBC’s “Squawk Box”, Mr. Pruitt was asked, “Do you believe that it’s been proven that CO2 is the primary control knob for climate?” His response was: “I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do and there’s tremendous disagreement about the degree of impact, so, no, I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.” This view denies fundamental climate science as expressed on the EPA website and summarized by the 2013 report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which found that it is “extremely likely” that more than half the global warming that occurred from 1951 to 2010 was a consequence of human emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and that their best estimate was that all of the warming after 1950 was due to human causes. A January report by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which documented that 2016 was the warmest year on record, agreed, stating: “The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degrees Celsius) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere.”


Figure 1. EPA administrator Scott Pruitt at his January 18, 2017 Senate confirmation hearing (Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images.)

Commentary: Scott Pruitt a destructive choice for head of EPA
It’s difficult to imagine a more destructive choice for the health of Americans, the avoidance of dangerous climate change, and the health of the American economy than Scott Pruitt as head of EPA. Mr. Pruitt’s denial of the basic science behind climate change makes him as unfit for the office of EPA administrator as an astrologer would be for head of NASA. Decisions based on the best science are critical for the success of any endeavor, as summed up well by Mindy Lubber, president of Ceres, in a March 10 editorial at CNBC: “Businesses thrive when they make smart decisions based on the best available information. The reality is that climate change is happening now and is having wide-ranging ripple effects on businesses. Ignoring risks and long-term trends for short-term benefits is how to drive a company—and the economy—into the ground.”

The EPA’s mission is to ”protect human health and the environment -- air, water and land,” and the regulations the EPA issues should be guided by the best science we have. But in his first speech as EPA administrator, Mr. Pruitt envisioned an EPA that can be "pro-energy, pro-jobs and pro-environment." EPA’s mission statement has no requirement that the agency protect the profits of industry, though, nor should it, since there are plenty of pro-business and pro-job interests out there. Apparently, though, science and protection of people’s health at the EPA are increasingly going to take a back seat to protecting the profits of industry. An early example of this came on January 30, in a shift of the mission statement by the EPA’s Office of Science and Technology to stop issuing “science-based” standards for water pollution, and instead develop “economically and technologically achievable standards” (Figure 2.)


Figure 2. The EPA’s Office of Science and Technology develops clean water standards for states. Before January 30, 2017, their website said those standards were “science-based”, meaning they were based on the best peer-reviewed science available. As reported by newrepublic.com, the reference to “science-based” standards has since disappeared, and the web site now says the EPA develops “economically and technologically achievable standards” for water pollution.

Mr. Pruitt, the Attorney General of Oklahoma from 2010 - 2016, is a self-described “leading advocate against the EPA’s activist agenda”, and is apparently contemptuous of the law in pursuit of that goal. Three examples of this have surfaced:

1) Mr. Pruitt illegally withheld emails from an open records request in 2015, and was finally forced to turn them over last week. Those emails revealed that he worked closely with the fossil fuel industry to promote their interests, including such groups as the Koch Industries-funded Americans for Prosperity. Additional emails are still being withheld, and are scheduled to be released pending review by a judge.

2) As reported by Fox News in Oklahoma City, Mr. Pruitt used a private email account to perform government business, in direct contradiction to his sworn testimony at his January 2017 Senate confirmation hearing before Congress.

3) As reported by businessinsider.com, Mr. Pruitt may have made another false statement under oath to the Senate: he said he filed briefs in support of a case where 12 poultry companies had allegedly dumped waste into the Illinois River. Investigators found no evidence that he or his office had filed any such briefs.

Mr. Pruitt is packing EPA management with fellow fossil fuel industry-friendly staffers. Two former staff members of Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the most outspoken climate science denier in Congress, have already been added. A third, Andrew Wheeler, who now works as a lobbyist for the fossil fuel industry, awaits Senate confirmation to be Pruitt’s deputy EPA chief.

Mr. Pruitt sued the EPA fourteen times while he was Attorney General of Oklahoma; none of those cases have succeeded thus far, and at least eight have yet to be settled. This sets up the absurd situation where Pruitt is now the originator and defender of these lawsuits against the agency. According to the New York Times, “In all but one of these 14 cases, regulated industry players also were parties. And these companies or trade associations in 13 of these cases were also financial contributors to Mr. Pruitt's political causes.” Desmogblog.com details that Pruitt has received at least $345,246 in campaign contributions from the oil and gas industry since 2002.

A January 2017 poll by Reuters found that 39 percent of Americans would like to see the EPA "strengthened or expanded," 22 percent wanted it to "remain the same," and just 19 percent said they would like to see the agency "weakened or eliminated.” The rest said they "don't know." Well, the wishes of the 19% who want to see the EPA weakened are going to be well-served by the gang of pirates Mr. Pruitt is assembling to run the EPA, as the common treasure we all share—clean air, clean water and a future livable climate—are plundered and sold off.

Substantially weakening air pollution regulations is going to end up killing a lot of people. A peer-reviewed 1997 EPA Report to Congress reviewed the benefits of the Act from 1970 to 1990, and concluded that in 1990 alone, pollution reductions under the Act prevented 205,000 premature deaths—deaths that occurred, on average, about twelve years earlier than they would have. A 2013 study estimated that air pollution was still responsible for about 200,000 premature deaths per year in the U.S.—about three times the number of U.S. combat deaths (58,000) during the entire Vietnam War. Any significant weakening of U.S. air pollution regulations goes against widespread public support for clean air, and is going to kill a lot of people and cost tens of billions of dollars in health-related costs.

Links
Preliminary plans have been leaked on Trump’s intention to cut EPA’s $8.1 billion budget by 26%, laying off about 3,000 of the agency’s 15,000 workers. This would be the biggest cut in EPA since the 35% reduction that the agency endured in 1981, the first year of the Reagan presidency. The EPA’s budget peaked in 2010, at $10.3 billion. As with all of the Trump administration's proposed budget, these major EPA cuts must get through Congress before becoming law, and it is quite possible that the scale of the cuts would be reduced in the appropriations process.

Climate science in NOAA is also at risk, according to this March 3, 2017 Washington Post article:
White House proposes steep budget cut to leading climate science agency.

If you want to find out the amount of money politicians who deny or downplay climate science have received from the fossil fuel industry, desmogblog.com is the place to go. Donald Trump’s two largest campaign contributors in the 2016 election were coal companies, Murray Energy and Alliance Coal.

The Trump Administration Is Filling Up With Koch Allies (December 2016 post from Ben Jervey at DeSmogBlog.)

Trump’s war on EPA regulations will kill jobs and a lot of people: Clean air and water standards create jobs, spur innovation, and save lives (January 25 post by Joe Romm of ThinkProgress.)

A Lesson Trump and the E.P.A. Should Heed, March 7, 2017 New York Times editorial by Reagan’s head of the EPA, William D. Ruckelshaus.

Climate Science Denial Shifts to a New Tactic Among Trump Appointees, my February 3, 2017 post.

How to Save $23 Trillion Per Year: 100% Renewable Energy for the World, my January 2, 2017 post.

Take Action!
These escalating assaults on our health and on the air we all breathe must be protested, and I urge you to write your Senators and Representatives on this issue:

Contact your House Representative
Contact your Senator

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 488. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I think we should build a wall and make the American's pay for it


Across Canada ............ ?

Because this is squeezing a balloon. 14 Billion dollars later . A "bad dude" comes across the border in Montana. And know one picks our fruit. Both borders, and 40 Billion dollars later.

The "poor" of course will leave the cities to pick all our fruits. Because field work is so cool.

Get used to hearing truth from the EPA, not PC BS designed to garner more funding for huckster pseudoscientists from gullible politicians. Let the damage wrought by the EPA to date be reversed and sanity brought back to the subject of natural climate change.
Quoting 497. PensacolaDoug:

None of you guys believed Trump had a snowballs chance in Hell of getting elected. Why should those of us who want to give the man a chance think that your predictions of his downfall will fare any better? It's already been ascertained that your political instincts and predictions are poor.

Actually, I predicted the electoral college result with very good accuracy. I missed only MI (which was razor thin) and WI (which I shouldn't have missed but disbelieved my own method).

Hillary Clinton is the first US Presidential candidate to lose to her own stalking horse. Quite an achievement if you think about it. Not one one would want on their resume, but noteworthy nonetheless.
Quoting 502. 1wintergreen1:

Get used to hearing truth from the EPA, not PC BS designed to garner more funding for huckster pseudoscientists from gullible politicians. Let the damage wrought by the EPA to date be reversed and sanity brought back to the subject of natural climate change.


That's a rich deposit. You could open an Irony mine.
Quoting 502. 1wintergreen1:


My condolences on your lack of scientific understanding. Keep banging those rocks together...or shaking your head. Whichever takes your fancy and/or makes the most noise. :^)

Some warm anomalies in the subsurface of the Pacific Ocean, but nothing extremely impressive. I think that El Nino, if it forms, will not form until late summer and will likely remain weak.
Quoting 463. Patrap:

Dat's a wrap fo me as I've got a date with a jug o' GoLytly...tomorrow, Crystal Light flavored, gee'.

Geaux Sneaux?


OH, you poor (insert name here), Been there done that twice, one word, UGLY....
510. elioe
Good morning. I can't remember when I have woken up half past five on a Sunday morning before. But it's going to be sunny early this day with temperature rising above freezing, and I'm going to enjoy it. Not many days of these conditions needed and the snow cover is gone.

Downtown Tampere at 7:11 a.m.

Quoting 511. Patrap:

Wundergrounds last Stand'
By: Patrap , 8:34 PM CST on March 02, 2017





I know that you have conversations with Plant. Have you ever met Page?
Quoting 513. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I know that you have conversations with Plant. Have you ever met Page?


Been in some big rooms with him, but no.....

This night here at the LakeFront Arena in 95' was close though.

Dancing Days' here, March 10,1995, or 22yrs ago last night..Geeezum'
Quoting 497. PensacolaDoug:

None of you guys believed Trump had a snowballs chance in Hell of getting elected. Why should those of us who want to give the man a chance think that your predictions of his downfall will fare any better? It's already been ascertained that your political instincts and predictions are poor.


You are right. Except now that he is in office he'll actually have to do something, and what he is doing may not be what was promised. And that slim majority that he won over in three states could quickly bounce back in the other direction. But fair is fair, let's see how the next four years pan out and judge ol' Trump by what actually occurs.
Quoting 427. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




"The Cayman Islands have confirmed that they will turn their clocks forward 1 hour at 02:00 (2 am) on Sunday March 12, 2017. The Cayman Islands have decided to introduce Daylight Saving Time (DST). The archipelago's first ever DST period is expected to begin in March 2017."

Quoting 516. wunderkidcayman:



"The Cayman Islands have confirmed that they will turn their clocks forward 1 hour at 02:00 (2 am) on Sunday March 12, 2017. The Cayman Islands have decided to introduce Daylight Saving Time (DST). The archipelago's first ever DST period is expected to begin in March 2017."



Welcome to EDT!
Quoting 506. HurricaneFan:


Some warm anomalies in the subsurface of the Pacific Ocean, but nothing extremely impressive. I think that El Nino, if it forms, will not form until late summer and will likely remain weak.



I find this one to be a bit more defined



anyway been watching it for past few weeks warm pool is shrinking and getting weaker cool pools getting bigger

anyway looking at everything I do think it will be similar to 2011 La Nina weakens early year Neutral spring then return La Nina in Summer

btw models back same time in 2011 showed ENSO warming even warmer than what actually happened eventually models came around to the idea eventually
right now the models are already trending a bit cooler eg before like only a week or two ago CFS showed Neutral going into El Nino with strengthening El Nino late in year +1.0 and increasing now CFS hardly even shows an El Nino (+0.5)
its not only the CFS other models eg GFDL, GFDL FLOR, NASA, NCAR CESM and to lesser extend NMME are trending cooler
Quoting 518. HurricaneFan:


Welcome to EDT!


lol no thanks I think its a pile of crap things should stay EST
Quoting 424. 999Ai2016:

We may have passed our annual Arctic sea ice max extent, according to ZLabe.
Source
It's not looking good. What about Antarctic sea ice extent? Link


Very likely. Yet another warm air mass has pushed into the arctic.

At this point, even a normal melt season would likely land a new record low. A year like 2012 could get pretty damn close to "ice-free".
What is so hard to grasp about the basic science of human-induced climate change?

The basic physics, chemistry, and mathematics have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that (1) that CO2 increases in the atmosphere have trapped excess solar radiation at the surface of our planet in the form of heat, (2) these CO2 increases are the primary result of human activities via the burning of fossil fuels, and (3) the increase in trapped solar radiation is causing our planet to warm at an accelerated rate leading to faster-than-normal climate change across the globe.

None of these facts are in doubt, and each are backed by substantial peer-reviewed data that has survived countless reviews and raking over the coals by politicians and pundits.

The relationship between increasing CO2 in the air and an increase in surface temperature has been known for over 75 years (Source: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 64, Issue 275, pages 223–240, April 1938)

We know with a high degree of certainty that past (millions of years ago) natural increases on CO2 has had profound effects on the Earth's climate and sea levels (Source: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years, Nature, Volume 406, pages 695-699, 17 August 2000).

And no, it's not about natural climate change.

The fingerprint of humans on the rising CO2 is very clear, and it's 50-100 times that of natural volcanic origin. The evidence is:

(1) Measurements of the CO2 output from both volcanoes and fossil fuel burning show that fossil fuel burning far exceeds that of present-day volcanoes. (Source)

(2) The increase in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to a decrease in atmospheric O2, which shows that the CO2 is being created from combustion. (Source )

(3) The carbon isotope signature of the CO2 shows an increase in 12C, which comes from living organisms. There's NO relevant increase in 13C, which comes from melting rocks (volcanoes), and NO increase in 14C, which comes from recently dead living organisms. Therefore, the carbon in CO2 is coming from once living organisms that have been dead for a very long time… aka fossil fuels. (Source )

I've posted it before, and I'll post it again. Dr. Richard Alley says it best:



Finally, if there's ever any question on where the remaining doubt about human-induced climate change comes from, let it be understood that it comes purely from outside of science and scientific circles, and invoked by individuals concerned more about their bottom line than about human civilization:


Quoting 517. Opie21390:

Denies "basic" science? You mean the propaganda that if you say it enough it must be true? Your basic science? When did they put you in charge of science? This site, and this guy running this column have been pushing this nonsense from day one, and it's embarrassing. Naming storms in the winter, their parent TWC making up fake tornado terms. 200 years from now, people will be laughing at all of the fake science that has been rammed down everyone's throat.


You mean all that fake science that is used everyday to build and run your modern world? Like chemistry, physics, and thermodynamics? Or do you suppose modern technology uses magical pixie dust and Unicorn feces?

What precisely is "fake" here? Please enlighten us with your god-like intelligence so we may all bow in worship when you rake in your Nobel Prizes.
524. elioe
Quoting 521. Xyrus2000:



Very likely. Yet another warm air mass has pushed into the arctic.

At this point, even a normal melt season would likely land a new record low. A year like 2012 could get pretty damn close to "ice-free".


If at this point the Arctic ice, both new and old, pretty much lacks the typical structural strength at all scales, as I would expect from the peculiar FDD-ice volume relation (sorry for dragging this on and on, lol), perhaps the entire ice cover says adieu and floats in small pieces to lower latitudes to melt.

On the other hand, I've noticed, that inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons pretty much coincide with years of lower amounts of ice melt. So much, that it's hard to see, how it could be a pure random coincidence. And El Niño may well occur this year, causing an inactive season.
Quoting 517. Opie21390:

Denies "basic" science? You mean the propaganda that if you say it enough it must be true? Your basic science? When did they put you in charge of science? This site, and this guy running this column have been pushing this nonsense from day one, and it's embarrassing. Naming storms in the winter, their parent TWC making up fake tornado terms. 200 years from now, people will be laughing at all of the fake science that has been rammed down everyone's throat.


Yesterday, I asked the following to another skeptic, but didn't get an answer, so would you please be kind enough to point out which of the following statements you think is fake. I am genuinely curious to find someone on this site that will state clearly what they believe is being faked.



1) CO2 and other "greenhouse gasses" absorb infrared radiation
2) The earth releases some heat as infrared radiation
3) 1) reduces the amount of 2) that escapes the atmosphere
4) We are burning large quantities of fossil fuels
5) Fossil fuels release carbon dioxide when combusted with oxygen
6) 4)+5) = increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere
7) 6) will cause 3) to be more effective
8) 7) will cause the atmosphere to retain more heat
9) 8) will cause the atmosphere, oceans etc to warm up
there are preachers and there are followers
at least the preachers make some money on the hoax
Quoting 526. landocanes:

there are preachers and there are followers
at least the preachers make some money on the hoax



How much does snake oil cost these days?
Quoting 501. RobertWC:



Across Canada ............ ?

Because this is squeezing a balloon. 14 Billion dollars later . A "bad dude" comes across the border in Montana. And know one picks our fruit. Both borders, and 40 Billion dollars later.

The "poor" of course will leave the cities to pick all our fruits. Because field work is so cool.


i don't think getting our fruit harvested is a reason to let people enter illegaly the free market will balance out when there not here, they will have to pay more to get people to pick the fruit. then the problem will be solved. I've been overseas and if i didn't have a passport I'm sure i would get booted out, same rules apply here.
Me, dealing with time change-

We can look at the bright side. If Mr Pruitt actually believed in climate change, he would most likely suggest getting rid of daylight savings so we don't heat the Earth so much.
Some people make bad decisions no matter what side of an issue they take.
Quoting 526. landocanes:

there are preachers and there are followers
at least the preachers make some money on the hoax


Just as there are those who understand science and those who don't. Those who don't frequently drone on about how wrong science is: "I ain't descended from no monkey!"

It's funny and pitiful at the same time.
Quoting 528. Tampa969mlb:

i don't think getting our fruit harvested is a reason to let people enter illegaly the free market will balance out when there not here, they will have to pay more to get people to pick the fruit. then the problem will be solved. I've been overseas and if i didn't have a passport I'm sure i would get booted out, same rules apply here.


I don't want to start a political discussion here, but yes, free market economics will prevail. In the medium term, the price of US-grown produce will increase, and Walmart et al will import more produce from abroad to avoid the rising prices and many of our farmers will suffer. Putting the proposed 20% tax on imports will help to offset that trend, but I would still expect a significant impact on our agricultural sector.

We have already seen what happens in the short term. When GA clamped down on illegal immigrant workers in 2012, fruit rotted on the vine because there were not enough people willing to pick it.
Quoting 528. Tampa969mlb:

i don't think getting our fruit harvested is a reason to let people enter illegaly the free market will balance out when there not here, they will have to pay more to get people to pick the fruit. then the problem will be solved. I've been overseas and if i didn't have a passport I'm sure i would get booted out, same rules apply here.

Lucky for us that the Rightful Owners of the Americas had no immigration policy, isn't it?

There. That's my political post for today.

As for weather: I'm in FL. There is no weather usually. When it does have weather, it's usually not good.
this year we've had a great stretch of weather in the tampabay area, only a couple cold days, it really dosent get better than this
535. MahFL
Quoting 528. Tampa969mlb:

i don't think getting our fruit harvested is a reason to let people enter illegaly the free market will balance out when there not here, they will have to pay more to get people to pick the fruit. then the problem will be solved. I've been overseas and if i didn't have a passport I'm sure i would get booted out, same rules apply here.


No one is letting people come in illegally, there is no secure border, you can just walk into the USA from Mexico.
You are confusing a travel document ( passport ), with being a legal citizen, or permanent resident of the USA.
NC Weather..

Where you can wear flip flops on Friday because its 75 degrees and today you are wearing boots because its snowing..

If there's a silver lining, it's the hope that the Trump regime will be as woefully inept and ineffective at stripping government climate and environmental protections as they have been with everything else they've promised to do but failed. Miserably. They promised a wall built by Mexicans; that's not going to happen. They promised a Muslim ban; v2 is as unconstitutional as v1, so will suffer the same ignominious fate. They promised to dump the ACA; that "repeal and replace" has been an absolute disaster. His Director of National Security lasted about as long as a child's popsicle before being tossed out on his ear. There's been no sign of his promised trillion-dollar infrastructure plan; no sign of his promised tax reform; no sign of pretty much anything. So while Pruitt and Trump "promised" to work together to ignore decades of solid science so that ExxonMobil's shareholders might buy an extra Bentley or two, their proven inability to actually, you know, legislate and govern might prevent the most destructive dreams of the regime from ever happening.

Maybe? {crosses fingers}
From Pacific Standard:

Don’t Wait for Ivanka Trump to Save the Climate

While we’re paying attention to Ivanka, the world is moving on without us.


Ivanka Trump listens to President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe...
(Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images)


The great director Alfred Hitchcock often spoke of the “MacGuffin,” a plot device that appears to move the story forward but merely leads to a dead end. (Some enjoy eating them as red herrings.) Ivanka Trump is our most dangerous MacGuffin in the climate arena — the MacGuffin dressed in pearls.

Media reports have Ivanka Trump trying to convince her father to remain within the Paris climate accord. The minute you start thinking that Ivanka is having a moderating influence on her father, or that any of this is serious, stop. This is green-washing of the highest order, and Ivanka’s so-called efforts to convince her father not to throw the historic accord out the window are unconvincing given the harsh reality: The Paris Agreement does not require the United States to do anything. During the negotiations, it became clear that any treaty making binding demands of the U.S. would never pass the Republican-controlled U.S. Senate. [...]

[...]

Confined within this political reality, then-President Barack Obama, along with the world, agreed to establish a voluntary set of emission goals, which signatories could accomplish in whatever way made the most sense for each individual nation. Anything stronger would have required Senate ratification. [...]

[...]

In other words, all Trump has to do to undermine the Paris Accord is to do nothing. There are no requirements to staying in — other than, ironically enough, the required four-year wait before a country may formally withdraw. And what Ivanka’s father is already doing, in practice, already is withdrawing from the Paris Accord: He’s defunding the Clean Power Plan, reversed the vehicle rules requiring lower emissions from cars, and halted — it appears — the dispersal of $2 billion out of the $3 billion Obama committed to aid developing countries make the transition to renewables.

Ivanka’s efforts to convince her father are a ruse. If she were serious, she’d be pleading with her father not to decimate the Environmental Protection Agency — as his proposed budget appears to do. That proposed budget, leaked last week, includes cuts of 20 to 30 percent in funding for core enforcement and research, and proposes cutting the Office of Research and Development, which oversees most climate research, by 40 percent—a move, as Science magazine reports, that would cause the EPA’s research capacities to “implode.”

[...]

Next week, on March 15th, the women mayors of 15 of the world’s biggest cities — including Paris, Madrid, Washington, D.C., Sydney, Barcelona, Cape Town, Warsaw, and Bangalore — will gather in New York City to articulate their commitment to “low-carbon cities of the future.” They’re part of a larger global alliance of more than 90 cities, C40 Cities, collaborating on initiatives to shift away from energy sources reliant on fossil fuels. Ivanka Trump, according to a C40 spokesperson, is not scheduled to attend.

Click here to read full article.
539. MahFL
The forecast here in Orange Park was for a dreary day with rain, currently the sun is shining....

The JAX NWS discussion has a ton of stuff in it from toughs to a low in the Gulf, all heading my way...
Good Morning. They are calling the Gulf low on TWC as part "3" of winter storm Stella..........While hard to spot cyclonic rotation on the Gulf vis loops this morning, the max vort in the Gulf is located due South of LA and it should remain weak in the Gulf until it moves offshore of the Eastern Seaboard per Tally NWS:


National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
853 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The latest meso-analysis (05Z) continues to show a frontal zone
draped across southern portions of the Gulf Coast states. This
feature will continue to slowly sag southward over the next
several hours, with the associated band of showers along and
north of the front following suit. As noted in the previous
discussion, a weak area of low pressure at the surface remains
evident off of the Texas coast at this hour, with high confidence
in this feature remaining weak through the period.



Vis Loop:

Max Surface Vort:
Quoting 529. aquak9:

Me, dealing with time change-



Me, before I've had my morning coffee :)
On the political issues, part of what we are seeing is the fossil fuel lobby taking a final, and very overt, power grab once and for all in face of science to the contrary to keep their hegemony in place (and with a fossil fuel friendly Administration in place with denies the science), and the person who set the Russian investments and ties in place from Russian oligarchs in Trump industries years ago (remember the East European labor on many New York building projects), and the person who raised his children and headed many of the New York projects, was DT's first wife Ivanna..........Money and Greed knows no political borders and getting rid of the EPA is right in line with the master plan and as I said on here 2 months ago, the friendly and business overtures towards Russia, which includes the potential lifting sanctions to allow the Russian-Exon Mobile arctic drilling to go forward is a huge problem. This is the first US President since the start of the Cold War in 1945 to initiate an administration with a soft stance towards the Russians; never thought I would live to see this unless you connect the business ties and dots together.

All of the other issues like immigration reform, rebuilding the inner cities, and infrastructure and USA "first", are actually smoke screens for what it really happening..........Us little people argue about these issues while the big corporate dogs are completely taking over.

What did you expect when you elected a billionaire international businessman to the US presidency with strong business ties with Russian oligarchs laundering and taking corporate profits out of Russia?
Quoting 532. OviedoWatcher:



I don't want to start a political discussion here, but yes, free market economics will prevail. In the medium term, the price of US-grown produce will increase, and Walmart et al will import more produce from abroad to avoid the rising prices and many of our farmers will suffer. Putting the proposed 20% tax on imports will help to offset that trend, but I would still expect a significant impact on our agricultural sector.

We have already seen what happens in the short term. When GA clamped down on illegal immigrant workers in 2012, fruit rotted on the vine because there were not enough people willing to pick it.


I remember hearing that. Either we'll have to pony up a living wage for labor, or fruit will rot on the vine. stockholders can't be bothered to pay an extra 3 cents a pound for grapes in this country to support 20 bucks an hour for someone to pick them. The taxes will have to be steep, but we'll need them to stop the race to the bottom for the sake of stock buyouts for CEOs. Remember when John McCain tried the claim that nobody is willing to pick lettuce anymore and offered 50 dollars per hour for lettuce pickers? He got over 10,000 legitimate applications and that quietly got swept under the rug by the Republican party.
Quoting 542. weathermanwannabe:

What did you expect when you elected a billionaire international businessman to the US presidency?

Gotta stop ya right there for reasons of accuracy. "We" elected Clinton*. Trump is on the Founders and their Electoral College.

*I voted for Stein, so I'm part of the great "we" but not the "we" that specifically voted for Clinton.
Quoting 537. Neapolitan:

If there's a silver lining, it's the hope that the Trump regime will be as woefully inept and ineffective at stripping government climate and environmental protections as they have been with everything else they've promised to do but failed. Miserably. They promised a wall built by Mexicans; that's not going to happen. They promised a Muslim ban; v2 is as unconstitutional as v1, so will suffer the same ignominious fate. They promised to dump the ACA; that "repeal and replace" has been an absolute disaster. His Director of National Security lasted about as long as a child's popsicle before being tossed out on his ear. There's been no sign of his promised trillion-dollar infrastructure plan; no sign of his promised tax reform; no sign of pretty much anything. So while Pruitt and Trump "promised" to work together to ignore decades of solid science so that ExxonMobil's shareholders might buy an extra Bentley or two, their proven inability to actually, you know, legislate and govern might prevent the most destructive dreams of the regime from ever happening.

Maybe? {crosses fingers}
I actually agree with you on "r & r". As for the rest.... The guy has been in office for not even two months. On a positive note, the economy has really benefited from the "Trump bump". On the rest, let's give him a little time before we decide he's failure like your hero was.
Quoting 536. ncstorm:

NC Weather..

Where you can wear flip flops on Friday because its 75 degrees and today you are wearing boots because its snowing..




Wow - I didn't expect that. I'm out of the country on business and hadn't checked the weather at home (Charlotte). My wife must be loving it (not)
Really appreciate Dr. Master's post on the Trump Administration's war on the EPA, and by extension, all of us and our children. May the message be heard far and wide.
548. MahFL
Quoting 545. PensacolaDoug:

On the rest, let's give him a little time before we decide he's failure like your hero was.


Trump is 70 years old, he is not going to change his ways, he is a liar, he quotes things that are not true and could be fact checked in 2 mins using the internet, eg he said his electoral college victory was the biggest in decades, which it wasn't, he also claimed the inaugaration crowds were bigger, they wen't.
Trump is also a hypocrite, he said during the election the job figures were terrible fake figures, now he is in power his team breaks a rule and twitters about it 40 mins after the job figures were released.
Trump is racist, he lost 2 cases where black people were not allowed to rent his properties. He refrered to a black supporter as His black supporter.
He also says things like "I am the least racist/sexist person ever" which is a stupid thing to say as it's not provable.
His Dr released a statement saying Trump would be the healthiest ever candidate.
Do you see a trend ? There are many things wrong with Donald Trump.
Quoting 548. MahFL:



Trump is 70 years old, he is not going to change his ways, he is a liar, he quotes things that are not true and could be fact checked in 2 mins using the internet, eg he said his electoral college victory was the biggest in decades, which it wasn't, he also claimed the inaugaration crowds were bigger, they wen't.
Trump is also a hypocrite, he said during the election the job figures were terrible fake figures, now he is in power his team breaks a rule and twitters about it 40 mins after the job figures were released.
Trump is racist, he lost 2 cases where black people were not allowed to rent his properties. He refrered to a black supporter as His black supporter.
He also says things like "I am the least racist/sexist person ever" which is a stupid thing to say as it's not provable.
His Dr released a statement saying Trump would be the healthiest ever candidate.
Do you see a trend ? There are many things wrong with Donald Trump.



Oh I see a trend alright.
Don't hold back...Tell us how you really feel.
P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.
550. MahFL
Quoting 549. PensacolaDoug:



Oh I see a trend alright.
Don't hold back...Tell us how you really feel.
P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.


I don't think the US voters will give him a second term. The reason he won was an anti establishment feeling running through the country, and too much baggage on Hillary. In four years time I am sure at least one of those will not be in effect, maybe both, and normality will return.
Divide and Conquer; hard to argue with the fact that DT's campaign was mostly a "hate based" platform where he pushed all the right buttons on so many people (and hurling insults all along the way across the board both across social groups and his individual opponents) that voted for him. I seriously do not believe that he ran because he has a real disposition to help the poor or disenfranchised or to actually improve the lives of working class Americans. Hopefully, Congress and the Courts will keep him in check. Appointing Agency heads that a) are in bed with the Russians in terms of business deals (State Department); b) favor charter schools over public schools which 80% of American children attend (Education); and c) an EPA head who denies climate science is not a very promising start by any normal measure.
How the EPA chief could gut the agency’s climate change regulations
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 03/12/17 10:30 AM EDT


Quoting 549. PensacolaDoug:



Oh I see a trend alright.
Don't hold back...Tell us how you really feel.
P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.


Question:

If Obama's name was inserted instead of Trump in MahFL's statement, would you be voting for him again?
Quoting 550. MahFL:



I don't think the US voters will give him a second term. The reason he won was an anti establishment feeling running through the country, and too much baggage on Hillary. In four years time I am sure at least one of those will not be in effect, maybe both, and normality will return.

Depends on two things.

If the Democrats run Hillary again, Trump wins.

If, against all odds and currently available evidence, Trump runs a successful Administration over the next four years, Trump probably wins.
Russian Trolls Fooled Sanders Voters With Anti-Clinton Fake News

“It came in like a wave, like a tsunami. It was like a flood of misinformation.”

Quoting 550. MahFL:



I don't think the US voters will give him a second term. The reason he won was an anti establishment feeling running through the country, and too much baggage on Hillary. In four years time I am sure at least one of those will not be in effect, maybe both, and normality will return.


I agree. In four years, if things continue as it is currently going, Trump will have exhausted any support from those sitting on the fence. Especially if the current version of the ACHA manages to survive.
If it does not pass, that will demonstrate to even his core supporters that the Republicans really have no plan for what they want accomplished. If it does pass, and people lose coverage or their rates significantly increase (especially for older folks), well the administration and The GOP will have dug their own graves with any "Trump Democrats".
The question remains as to whether Democrats can unite around a candidate, and whether this candidate would appeal to enough of the fringe left and center left to actually be a contender. 40% core support is still a formidable number to defeat if there is any division.
Quoting 554. Misanthroptimist:


Depends on two things.

If the Democrats run Hillary again, Trump wins.

If, against all odds and currently available evidence, Trump runs a successful Administration over the next four years, Trump probably wins.


Hillary is done. The Clinton grasp on the Democratic Party has been broken for good.
Quoting 552. barbamz:

How the EPA chief could gut the agency’s climate change regulations
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 03/12/17 10:30 AM EDT


That should be "will" not could.
Quoting 506. HurricaneFan:


Some warm anomalies in the subsurface of the Pacific Ocean, but nothing extremely impressive. I think that El Nino, if it forms, will not form until late summer and will likely remain weak.



Hopefully...
Quoting 555. Xandra:

Russian Trolls Fooled Sanders Voters With Anti-Clinton Fake News

“It came in like a wave, like a tsunami. It was like a flood of misinformation.”



If true, it largely didn't matter. People largely liked Bernie for what he was and represented, not as "not Her" choice. Obviously, that's not a universal truth, but it's probably better than 90% true.
Quoting 557. daddyjames:



Hillary is done. The Clinton grasp on the Democratic Party has been broken for good.

Really? Do tell. Because the DNC looks like it just elected more Hillary people...and nary a Bernie-crat in sight. Running Hillary's neoliberal policies in 2020 with someone who has even less name recognition may well produce even worse results. And it almost certainly won't unseat Trump, if that is indeed the goal...which I believe less and less each day.
Quoting 543. Snacker2:



I remember hearing that. Either we'll have to pony up a living wage for labor, or fruit will rot on the vine. stockholders can't be bothered to pay an extra 3 cents a pound for grapes in this country to support 20 bucks an hour for someone to pick them. The taxes will have to be steep, but we'll need them to stop the race to the bottom for the sake of stock buyouts for CEOs. Remember when John McCain tried the claim that nobody is willing to pick lettuce anymore and offered 50 dollars per hour for lettuce pickers? He got over 10,000 legitimate applications and that quietly got swept under the rug by the Republican party.


Ah, but the trade deals that Trump has "ripped up" would pose a problem with farmers. A good portion of what is produced here, especially wheat and corn, is exported out of the US.
This could significantly impact any support in rural areas in the long term. We'll have to see what "better" deals are negotiated.
Given the budget cutbacks proposed, the lack of positions filled, and tthe potential for a number of seasoned staffers in each of the cabinets quietly retiring to private life, I am willing to wager that "little to none" renegotiated trade deals will ultimately be the result.
Quoting 549. PensacolaDoug:

P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.
Well, the economy is booming now thanks to eight years under Trump's predecessor. However, given that "the end of his 1st term" will, if there's any justice in this world, come long before January of 2020, a reelection is not at all likely. IOW: don't hold your breath...
S African cycle race cancelled due to strong winds
BBC video, 1 hour ago
A bike race in South Africa had to be cancelled because of severe winds.
Around 35,000 cyclists were due to take part in the Cape Town Cycle Tour.




Another video.
Video compilation
Another one.

Cape Town Cycle Tour 2017 cancelled as a result of extreme weather
12.3.2017 11:20 am
Quoting 561. Misanthroptimist:


Really? Do tell. Because the DNC looks like it just elected more Hillary people...and nary a Bernie-crat in sight. Running Hillary's neoliberal policies in 2020 with someone who has even less name recognition may well produce even worse results. And it almost certainly won't unseat Trump, if that is indeed the goal...which I believe less and less each day.


If the Democratic Party puts Hillary Clinton up for office again, they may as well just commit harikari at the Democratic convention.
The Clintons will have an influence, of course. But she will not be featured in the spotlight. Too much baggage. Too much personal hatred/dislike/distrust for her (undeservedly so).
Quoting 549. PensacolaDoug:



Oh I see a trend alright.
Don't hold back...Tell us how you really feel.
P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.


people really need to get over this 'the economy is the only thing that matters' idea
567. MahFL
Quoting 560. Misanthroptimist:


If true, it largely didn't matter. People largely liked Bernie for what he was and represented, not as "not Her" choice. Obviously, that's not a universal truth, but it's probably better than 90% true.


I think the point of the fake news was to dissuade Bernie supporters from backing Hillary in the General Election, as she was the likely Dem winner as she had locked up the promised candidates 18 months earlier.
Quoting 565. daddyjames:



If the Democratic Party puts Hillary Clinton up for office again, they may as well just commit harikari at the Democratic convention.
The Clintons will have an influence, of course. But she will not be featured in the spotlight. Too much baggage. Too much personal hatred/dislike/distrust for her (undeservedly so).

I can only hope you're right. I'm not a Dem (though I was briefly to vote for Bernie in the primary), but I'm probably more disposed to vote for a Dem than a Repub. But I think "both" major parties are out of touch with the average American. That's why both have to concentrate on inflammatory wedge issues instead of things that matter to us here in the cheap seats.
Quoting 565. daddyjames:



If the Democratic Party puts Hillary Clinton up for office again, they may as well just commit harikari at the Democratic convention.
The Clintons will have an influence, of course. But she will not be featured in the spotlight. Too much baggage. Too much personal hatred/dislike/distrust for her (undeservedly so).
I think a very likely possibility, now that he has had some,mostly favorable, national exposure, is the Democratic VP nominee. Tim has a very level head and was a good governor of Virginia and is a good senator as well. I think he would be an excellent president.
From the Washington Post, 3/11/17: "McDowell County, W.V., has high rates of chronic diseases and the shortest life expectancy in the nation. It's also a place that voted overwhelmingly for President Trump, who promised to repeal the Affordable Care Act that helped many residents get health coverage."

McDowell County is also among the poorest counties in the country, and therefore receives significantly more money from the Federal Government than it pays in federal taxes, a fact that confounds observers who assume that people vote according to their economic interests. The fact is that most of those who voted for Trump in McDowell County did so because they saw in Trump someone who would protect what is in fact their most valued possession, namely, their belief system. The lengths to which people will go to protect their belief systems are enormous.

Genesis Chapter 22 (KJV): And it came to pass after these things that God did tempt Abraham, and said unto him, Abraham: and he said, Behold, here I am. And he said, 'Take now thy son, thine only son Isaac, whom thou loves, and get thee into the land of Moriah, and offer him there for a burnt offering upon on of the mountains which I will tell thee of.....And they came to the place which God had told him of, and Abraham built an altar there, and laid the wood in order, and bound Isaac his son, and laid him on the altar upon the wood......And Abraham stretched forth his hand, and took the knife to slay his son.

To anyone who would suggest that such attitudes are a thing of the distant past, I would call to their attention what some parents in east Africa allow to be done to their daughters, or what some parents in the West continue to do to children who are not sexually normative. There are many people today who are quite aware of the fact that being seen as a protector of traditional beliefs is a path to power. To name just a few: Vladimir Putin, Stephen K. Bannon, Sean Hannity, Bill O'Riley, megachurch pastors and televangelists, a large number of the Republicans in Congress, governors mansions, and state legislatures.
Recently, one of the comments on this blog contained the following quote from Carl Sagan:

One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence
of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply
too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you,
you almost never get it back.
Quoting 568. Misanthroptimist:


I can only hope you're right. I'm not a Dem (though I was briefly to vote for Bernie in the primary), but I'm probably more disposed to vote for a Dem than a Repub. But I think "both" major parties are out of touch with the average American. That's why both have to concentrate on inflammatory wedge issues instead of things that matter to us here in the cheap seats.

You could think of it as the other way around. Those that support the Dem party (and lean towards it) grew complacent as no one took Trump seriously as a candidate.
I think that his win has woken them up. We'll see if they avoid falling back asleep. Key indicators would be how the upcoming special elections go, and what happens mid-term.
I am not forecasting any significant gains for the Democratic Party per se. But will indicate whether or not the "anti-Trump" sentiment will galvanize into a coherent political force.
Quoting 566. earthisanocean:



people really need to get over this 'the economy is the only thing that matters' idea

That's especially true in our vampire economy. Sooner or later the corporations will run out of other people's blood and our (imagined) vibrant economy will shrivel like Dracula in the sunlight. And in that case, there will be no sequel for many, many years.
Quoting 569. CaneFreeCR:

I think a very likely possibility, now that he has had some,mostly favorable, national exposure, is the Democratic VP nominee. Tim has a very level head and was a good governor of Virginia and is a good senator as well. I think he would be an excellent president.


Although well-qualified, not sure that would be where the party may go. And if the DP learned any lessons this past election cycle, they'll open up the process to a wider swath of candidates and let the people decide. Of course, that as its pros and cons ;)

Edit: Ooops quoted the wrong one.
A silver lining in this unfortunate situation is that no one respects Trump or most of the people he appoints. He's a good rabble rouser but a weak leader. You can see how much the White House employees dislike him by the fact that they run to the media and leak every chance they get. Are EPA employees going to respect a lying corporate thug? No. Civil servants under a clueless education secretary? No. Will publicly dissed intelligence agents respect the president? No. Certain people blame a "Deep State"- I blame inept, antagonistic, and uninspiring leadership. This will be a permanent burden for Trump's administration.

Edit: Sorry- I should have said "no White House or other federal employee" in the first sentence... It's a little exaggeration, but I just finished a cup of strong coffee.
Quoting 571. daddyjames:


You could think of it as the other way around. Those that support the Dem party (and lean towards it) grew complacent as no one took Trump seriously as a candidate.
I think that his win has woken them up. We'll see if they avoid falling back asleep. Key indicators would be how the upcoming special elections go, and what happens mid-term.
I am not forecasting any significant gains for the Democratic Party per se. But will indicate whether or not the "anti-Trump" sentiment will galvanize into a coherent political force.

We Bernie supporters took Trump very seriously. Many (perhaps most) of us predicted he would beat Clinton. We didn't (and don't) care. The differences between Trump and Clinton for us amount to the particular way in which America would be screwed over, not whether it would be. There's a case to be made that Trump is better since he's more rash and incompetent. Sometimes things have to get worse before they get better. Hopefully, they won't get too much worse.
Quoting 574. annabatic:

A silver lining in this unfortunate situation is that no one respects Trump or most of the people he appoints. He's a good rabble rouser but a weak leader. You can see how much the White House employees dislike him by the fact that they run to the media and leak every chance they get. Are EPA employees going to respect a lying corporate thug? No. Civil servants under a clueless education secretary? No. Will publicly dissed intelligence agents respect the president? No. Certain people blame a "Deep State"- I blame inept, antagonistic, and uninspiring leadership. This will be a permanent burden for Trump's administration.



I wouldn't be so sure of that. Trump is famous for the words, "You're fired." If he says that enough...things may well go his way.
Quoting 574. annabatic:

A silver lining in this unfortunate situation is that no one respects Trump or most of the people he appoints. He's a good rabble rouser but a weak leader. You can see how much the White House employees dislike him by the fact that they run to the media and leak every chance they get. Are EPA employees going to respect a lying corporate thug? No. Civil servants under a clueless education secretary? No. Will publicly dissed intelligence agents respect the president? No. Certain people blame a "Deep State"- I blame inept, antagonistic, and uninspiring leadership. This will be a permanent burden for Trump's administration.




I would not say no one. Trump has an average hovering around 85-90% in polls among Republicans. If that erodes, i would agree with you. But that is pretty impressive to say the least.
Now, eventually the ability to lay blame on Obama will not carry as much weight, and that should/could start slipping. We'll have to see how and what happens the next year or so.
Will Republicans be as happy if none or little of the promises made remain unfulfilled? Do they even care?
578. MahFL
One reason ( of many ) Trump won was because Hillary was forecast to win so easily and a lot of people decided they did not need to vote.
The same thing happened the the UK one time, the Labor party was forecast to win easily and in the end the Conservative Party squeezed out a narrow win. I believe someone worked out it was about 40,000 votes in the right places that enabled that win.
Quoting 569. CaneFreeCR:

I think a very likely possibility, now that he has had some,mostly favorable, national exposure, is the Democratic VP nominee. Tim has a very level head and was a good governor of Virginia and is a good senator as well. I think he would be an excellent president.

I think Michelle Obama would be an excellent president.

Quoting 502. 1wintergreen1:

Get used to hearing truth from the EPA, not PC BS designed to garner more funding for huckster pseudoscientists from gullible politicians. Let the damage wrought by the EPA to date be reversed and sanity brought back to the subject of natural climate change.


Yeah, because back in the 1890's the EPA was thinking about how to construct a global conspiracy to make liberal climate scientists rich.

I think during this new software transition they should implement a bot to automatically delete clearly ludicrous comments like this.
Quoting 567. MahFL:



I think the point of the fake news was to dissuade Bernie supporters from backing Hillary in the General Election, as she was the likely Dem winner as she had locked up the promised candidates 18 months earlier.

Hillary herself and her campaign and supporters saw to it that Bernie supporters wouldn't back her. In fact, they outright told us that they didn't need us. Blaming it on news, Russians, time-travelers or anything else is rationalizing away the real problem, imo.
Quoting 575. Misanthroptimist:


We Bernie supporters took Trump very seriously. Many (perhaps most) of us predicted he would beat Clinton. We didn't (and don't) care. The differences between Trump and Clinton for us amount to the particular way in which America would be screwed over, not whether it would be. There's a case to be made that Trump is better since he's more rash and incompetent. Sometimes things have to get worse before they get better. Hopefully, they won't get too much worse.


I liked Bernie - and still do. And, in all honesty, felt that he may have been a better candidate overall. Again, HC simply had too much, undeserved, baggage attached to her.

The DC really needs to retool itself from the ground up, and actively participate in contests in all the states. Here in OK, they cannot even field candidates to run in half of the state races, and those that do are little known.

The top-down approach certainly did not play out very well for them. I thought, wrongly of course, that HC would win. But saw little happening after that for the DP, in regards to being competitive in local, state, and national elections.
Quoting 579. Xandra:


I think Michelle Obama would be an excellent president.




I don't think she has any interest. And again, there would be baggage associated with that. I think the Dems need to really start working from the ground up.
584. MahFL
The 12Z GFS is running, lol !
Quoting 580. Xyrus2000:



Yeah, because back in the 1890's the EPA was thinking about how to construct a global conspiracy to make liberal climate scientists rich.

I think during this new software transition they should implement a bot to automatically delete clearly ludicrous comments like this.

That brings up a very good point, imo. If climatologists are so smart that they can run a ~200 year scam with absolutely no smoking gun evidence, and even co-opt the Arctic sea ice and other species to support the scam...shouldn't they be running the planet? I mean, people that smart and capable are who we want in charge, isn't it?
Getting closer to the onset of this storm.
Quoting 582. daddyjames:



I liked Bernie - and still do. And, in all honesty, felt that he may have been a better candidate overall. Again, HC simply had too much, undeserved, baggage attached to her.

The DC really needs to retool itself from the ground up, and actoively participate in contests in all the states. Heere in OK, they canot even firld candidates to run in half of the state races, and those that do are little known.

The top-down approach certainly did not play out very well for them. I thought, wrongly of course, that HC would win. But saw little happening after that for the DP, in regards to being competitive in local, state, and national elections.



Media is full of BS Propaganda.... Also I did 261 Facebook Group Polls from Aug-Nov on who people were going to vote for President. The groups had 25K-150K people in them from garage sales, yard sales, buy-sell-trade, and even craiglist groups on facebook....(I looked for the biggest in 2-3 areas per state in 15 battleground states. Trump won 255 out of 261... some were by a good margin. I didn't do California, NY or Illinois and about 20 other states that I knew were going for Trump or Hillary 100%. So I had a good idea.. only state that didn't go for Trump that the facebook poll had for him was New Hampshire.. but that state was decided by 1,000 votes only. I did have Trump winning Wis,Mich,Oh,Fl,NC and Penn barely. Sometimes it's good to do our own research. :)
Politics aside for the moment, just spoke to my Daughter in Mass and she is hunkering down for the storm getting some some food and supplies for a few days just in case; it's a big wait for the folks in the NE to see exactly how close or far the low tracks off the NE Coast per the two models (one closer - one father). Coastal residents are going to get a wallop along the I-95 corridor but we still do not know how far the West will be impacted as well depending on the exact traejctory.............She is is Western Mass closer to upstate NY. See Yall Tomorrow and enjoy the rest of Sunday.
Quoting 586. Climate175:

Getting closer to the onset of this storm.


Cold in DC has not been quite as bad as feared. I don't know why because that arctic air coming in was really cold. But.. mid 20s was as cold as it got both nights and the cherry blossoms can take that. Worried about teens over fresh deep snow cover wed and thurs AM

So far though, blossoms are intact.
Quoting 585. Misanthroptimist:


That brings up a very good point, imo. If climatologists are so smart that they can run a ~200 year scam with absolutely no smoking gun evidence, and even co-opt the Arctic sea ice and other species to support the scam...shouldn't they be running the planet? I mean, people that smart and capable are who we want in charge, isn't it?


You know how it goes, if you think they have been running a 200 yr conspiracy (1) there is evidence (although this always turns out to be a fallacy); (2) the "powers-that-be" have destroyed the evidence and silenced all that could reveal that evidence; (3) you are just biased and have been brain-washed by the environmental-climate change cabals that are obviously reaping millions, even billions, from this grand scheme.
Quoting 524. elioe:



If at this point the Arctic ice, both new and old, pretty much lacks the typical structural strength at all scales, as I would expect from the peculiar FDD-ice volume relation (sorry for dragging this on and on, lol), perhaps the entire ice cover says adieu and floats in small pieces to lower latitudes to melt.

On the other hand, I've noticed, that inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons pretty much coincide with years of lower amounts of ice melt. So much, that it's hard to see, how it could be a pure random coincidence. And El Niño may well occur this year, causing an inactive season.


There's factors two consider though. There's ice melt and ice transport. Changes to global circulation as a result of warming has, at least over the past few years, allowed for more frequent and stronger arctic storms to develop which have worked to weaken the ice and facilitate transport.

I haven't looked into the details, but there have been a few papers on the subject. While they may not be specifically about hurricane/arctic correlations, they do go into how changes to GCPs (Hadley cells, etc.) can impact both phenomena.
592. MahFL
All snow for DC :

In regards with climate change... .Hey..yes it happens... it's been going on for 10s of thousands of years. Now question.. are we adding to it? Slightly.. not much in the U.S. compared to 50-100 years ago when we had more factories spilling stuff into the atmosphere.. but we here in the U.S. and part of Euro,Canada have done much better in the past 20-50 years. Now it's China, India and S America that is doing most damage. We CAN'T stop them.. they have to change themselves. Still even those countries combined is less than 2-3%.....destroying rain forests is bad also. Anyways.. People have their own opinions.. I know DR Masters is a Propaganda Tool for Climate Change scare tactics...but he has the right to say what he wants.. on his own site... the more common sense independents and conservatives know.. "Hey, call China, India and Brazil and tell them to stop" cause here in the States and Europe....we aren't adding much at all and Climate Change is a natural thing.
Quoting 587. scottsvb:




Media is full of BS Propaganda.... Also I did 261 Facebook Group Polls from Aug-Nov on who people were going to vote for President. The groups had 25K-150K people in them from garage sales, yard sales, buy-sell-trade, and even craiglist groups on facebook....(I looked for the biggest in 2-3 areas per state in 15 battleground states. Trump won 255 out of 261... some were by a good margin. I didn't do California, NY or Illinois and about 20 other states that I knew were going for Trump or Hillary 100%. So I had a good idea.. only state that didn't go for Trump that the facebook poll had for him was New Hampshire.. but that state was decided by 1,000 votes only. I did have Trump winning Wis,Mich,Oh,Fl,NC and Penn barely. Sometimes it's good to do our own research. :)


One has to wonder what may have happened if the FBI and Wikileaks/Russian hacks were not involved.
Trump literally won the electoral college by < 100,000 votes. That certainly was not a mandate. And certainly puts him under tremendous pressure for significant achievements early on. A number of "left leaners" did not vote or reluctantly voted for Trump. So, the GOP certainly has a shaky foundation to stand upon, and certainly are not helping themselves with how they are handling things early on.
Quoting 593. scottsvb:

In regards with climate change... .Hey..yes it happens... it's been going on for 10s of thousands of years. Now question.. are we adding to it? Slightly.. not much in the U.S. compared to 50-100 years ago when we had more factories spilling stuff into the atmosphere.. but we here in the U.S. and part of Euro,Canada have done much better in the past 20-50 years. Now it's China, India and S America that is doing most damage. We CAN'T stop them.. they have to change themselves. Still even those countries combined is less than 2-3%.....destroying rain forests is bad also. Anyways.. People have their own opinions.. I know DR Masters is a Propaganda Tool for Climate Change scare tactics...but he has the right to say what he wants.. on his own site... the more common sense independents and conservatives know.. "Hey, call China, India and Brazil and tell them to stop" cause here in the States and Europe....we aren't adding much at all and Climate Change is a natural thing.


China will. And India will as well, but more slowly. Brazil? That's a new one for me. Our emissions will increase under Trump - so we will still be the top/close to the top contributor.
Geez its like a Domino effect on here.One post brings up politics and hundreds follow.
598. MahFL
Quoting 593. scottsvb:

In regards with climate change... . but we here in the U.S. and part of Euro,Canada have done much better in the past 20-50 years.


According the the EPA the US contributes 16%.

599. MahFL
The GFS has the notheaster at 985mb, and TWC has been quoting 979mb...
Propaganda tool?

LoL

Seems your projecting the Trump admins Heartland Meme tactics there.


How is science propaganda? Or are you a aged holdover from the Dark Ages maybe?

Adding 400,000 tonnes of Co2 per hour into the atmosphere is not trivial,it is the Main driver of all the observed warming over the last 140 years.

Science is above the din of Human feelings and chatter.

Always. Thats why we can communicate here with ones and zeros over vast distances that include out thoughts and converse for a common good.

Or did you think a car just runs on Faith, or a Airliner.

A Phool on a Phool's errand is always still a phool.
Thank you!
Quoting 522. Daisyworld:

What is so hard to grasp about the basic science of human-induced climate change?

The basic physics, chemistry, and mathematics have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that (1) that CO2 increases in the atmosphere have trapped excess solar radiation at the surface of our planet in the form of heat, (2) these CO2 increases are the primary result of human activities via the burning of fossil fuels, and (3) the increase in trapped solar radiation is causing our planet to warm at an accelerated rate leading to faster-than-normal climate change across the globe.

None of these facts are in doubt, and each are backed by substantial peer-reviewed data that has survived countless reviews and raking over the coals by politicians and pundits.

The relationship between increasing CO2 in the air and an increase in surface temperature has been known for over 75 years (Source: The Artificial Production of Carbon Dioxide and Its Influence on Temperature, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Volume 64, Issue 275, pages 223–240, April 1938)

We know with a high degree of certainty that past (millions of years ago) natural increases on CO2 has had profound effects on the Earth's climate and sea levels (Source: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years, Nature, Volume 406, pages 695-699, 17 August 2000).

And no, it's not about natural climate change.

The fingerprint of humans on the rising CO2 is very clear, and it's 50-100 times that of natural volcanic origin. The evidence is:

(1) Measurements of the CO2 output from both volcanoes and fossil fuel burning show that fossil fuel burning far exceeds that of present-day volcanoes. (Source)

(2) The increase in atmospheric CO2 is proportional to a decrease in atmospheric O2, which shows that the CO2 is being created from combustion. (Source )

(3) The carbon isotope signature of the CO2 shows an increase in 12C, which comes from living organisms. There's NO relevant increase in 13C, which comes from melting rocks (volcanoes), and NO increase in 14C, which comes from recently dead living organisms. Therefore, the carbon in CO2 is coming from once living organisms that have been dead for a very long time… aka fossil fuels. (Source )

I've posted it before, and I'll post it again. Dr. Richard Alley says it best:



Finally, if there's ever any question on where the remaining doubt about human-induced climate change comes from, let it be understood that it comes purely from outside of science and scientific circles, and invoked by individuals concerned more about their bottom line than about human civilization:



602. MahFL
Well JAX NWS screwed up my temp forecast today, it was forecast to be 67F and it is currently 77F.
Quoting 597. washingtonian115:

Geez its like a Domino effect on here.One post brings up politics and hundreds follow.

Just makes you think Hurricane Season can't come soon enough for storms to track.
Quoting 597. washingtonian115:

Geez its like a Domino effect on here.One post brings up politics and hundreds follow.


Dr.Master's post deals with politics. It says so in the little box just below his name at the end. Therefore comments that also deal with politics are comments that are staying on topic. (BTW, that's my favorite movie.)
Quoting 524. elioe:



If at this point the Arctic ice, both new and old, pretty much lacks the typical structural strength at all scales, as I would expect from the peculiar FDD-ice volume relation (sorry for dragging this on and on, lol), perhaps the entire ice cover says adieu and floats in small pieces to lower latitudes to melt.

On the other hand, I've noticed, that inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons pretty much coincide with years of lower amounts of ice melt. So much, that it's hard to see, how it could be a pure random coincidence. And El Ni%uFFFDo may well occur this year, causing an inactive season.




Its not peculiar at all.
The FDD is running a month behind current years. So are volume and area/extent values.

February 2017 average volume and average extent/area were within the average values reported in January for most recent years. The FDD is one month behind as compared to recent years
The lines indicate where the monthly average values for extent and volume are generally located by date on the FDD graph and the equivalent "FDD date" for recent years. It distinctly demonstrates that the volume and area/extent are what they are due to the cumulative amount of FDDs for the 2017 "freeze" season.

Volume is from PIOMAS, Area is from the NSIDC.

Edit: Added statements for further clarification (I hope).
Quoting 597. washingtonian115:

Geez its like a Domino effect on here.One post brings up politics and hundreds follow.



We are having a civil conversation well within the "rules of the road" at the moment, what is wrong with that?
EPA Head Scott Pruitt Has Already Broken 5 of His Promises to Congress

"Given Pruitt's record of denying climate science and suing to overturn bedrock clean air and water safeguards, many Senators asked him tough questions at the hearings, and time and again he made promises designed to reassure them--and get himself confirmed. [But] Now that he has the job, it appears Pruitt never really meant what he said. He has already broken the following promises:"

1) To recognize climate reality. Status: broken

2) To stand up for science.Status: broken

3) To fight all forms of pollution. Status: broken

4) To enforce clean air and water rules. Status: broken

5) To be consistent on states' rights. Status: broken

Full Article (via Time)

Of course, by now, it's clear to anyone watching the Trump regime that literally nothing that anyone connected with it says or promises has one shred of credibility, so Pruitt's lies and deceptions are par for the course and are as expected as they are depressing. But, still, as elections have consequences, so does being continuously and repeatedly and profoundly untruthful.

Let's just hope that the damage Lying Pruitt does to the environment is limited by the amount of time he runs things there. And let's hope that once Trump is out of office--an event which can't happen soon enough for most people--it doesn't take too long to rid the agency of Pruitt's anti-science sycophants and replace them with people who actually know something about the environment and how to protect it for all.
Also it matters not one single iota or bit that a single Human, or any group of Humans deny the Warming Globally caused by Humans burning naturally sequestered Fossil Fuels to run our societies.

The CO2 emitted dosen't blog, nor have ears, nor watch FOX News or curry favor to WUWT either.

It continues,

....unabated.

Quoting 522. Daisyworld:


[...] I've posted it before, and I'll post it again. Dr. Richard Alley says it best:


"It's Us"
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
The Sleep of Reason
In our inaugural "letters to the editor," Bill hears from a historian about the greatest horror to emerge from Trump's actions thus far.

BY BILL MOYERS AND BERNARD WEISBERGER | MARCH 8, 2017


Dear Reader:

With this edition of BillMoyers.com we begin a new feature: Letters to the Editor (that’s me). For a long time I have carried on a running correspondence with close friends and valued acquaintances, and often with people whom I’ve yet to meet in person. Their letters have provided sustenance, humor, challenge and second thoughts on my part on everything from current affairs to personal reflections on life (and sometimes death). Now I want to expand the circle.

If you’re a serious reader of these pages and have something you would like to say, I want to hear from you. We’ll choose letters on an occasional basis as they seem relevant to an issue we have been following. Please keep your letter to a reasonable length — 100-200 words. Email us at yourturn [at] billmoyers [dot] com. As a model, consider today’s letter from historian Bernard A. Weisberger. He’s been “Bernie” to me for a quarter-century or more. We became colleagues on a number of television projects, including Report from Philadelphia, on the 1787 Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, and A Walk Through the 20th Century, a series of specials on the tumultuous century that we shared (Warren Harding was president when Bernie was born; I was born two years after Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first inaugural).

After teaching history at two universities Bernie became a contributing editor and columnist for the late and very lamented magazine American Heritage. Among his many books, my favorites are When Chicago Ruled Baseball, America Afire (about the momentous election of l800) and They Gathered at the River, an account of the rise of “that old-time religion” in America. You’ve seen many of his articles on this site. They and his letters to me deserve to be between hard covers.

So you can understand why I asked him to inaugurate our “Dear Bill” feature. Follow his example and I’ll be pleased to share your letter with other readers. signature

Here we go:



The Sleep of Reason

Dear Bill:

There are so many horrors emerging from Trump’s actions in these first few weeks of his presidency that it’s hard to judge which, if any, is the most frightening. At the moment my own nomination is the confirmation of Scott Pruitt, the avowed climate change denier and enemy of environmental regulation, to head the Environmental Protection Agency — an absolutely classic case of a very hungry fox guarding a very vulnerable henhouse.

I choose this atrocity because climate change denial is a subset of a more critical issue, the increasing loss of universal acceptance that there are such things as knowable facts on which rational decisions can be made, and instead “truth” is whatever any given authority figure chooses to make it. But what was long considered beyond debate was science, the exploration of the laws governing the natural world, arrived at by rigorous observation, experimentation, creating explanations and then rigorously testing them in the laboratory or in the field. The process worked so well that when applied to medicine, mechanics and agriculture it produced a cluster of dazzling results that made the earth more productive and work less filled with drudgery and created unexplored opportunities for millions. Challenging science, then, was to defile the holy of holies, the ark of the covenant in the religion of progress.

And this is precisely what climate change denial does. It spits in the face of science and lands a body blow to the idea of modern democracy which grew in step with the march of invention.

When I began to study history in college more than 70 years ago there was an accepted narrative of upward movement. On the heels of the Dark Ages came the Renaissance of the 1500s, the rediscovery of the humanism of the classics. Then came the Age of Discovery in the following century, and finally the Age of Reason (or Enlightenment) of the 1700s. These were arbitrary divisions, oversimplified, sometimes cruel in their judgments of “backward” as against “civilized” peoples. The sunnier parts of the story have been challenged, and justly so. But without those changes in the conception of what humans were capable of achieving, there would have been no transition to thinking of them as capable of governing themselves.

The conception of people making “reasoned” choices about what is good or bad for them has been heavily battered in the 20th and 21st centuries by new knowledge about how our emotions and our brains work. But faith in science as the yardstick of truth, or at least as far as it is humanly possible to reach the truth, until now stood as a kind of last bastion of solidity. Take away that ground under our feet and we are easier prey to self-interested fakes, zealots, and political and economic hucksters — and are the poorer in spirit and in freedom for it. We are less trustful of others, less likely to keep an eye out for what are fundamental attacks on our community values.

When I hear some CEO of an energy company bloviate that it’s impossible to transition at a quicker step towards more renewables without destroying the American economy, or some yahoo swearing that if he’s forced to buy energy-saving bulbs then freedom has perished from the land, I don’t know whether to laugh or punch a hole in the TV screen. The war that Trump and Pruitt will be waging on the EPA, and worse, on the faith in science itself, looks to me like a part of the general know-nothing assault on our democracy currently swinging into high gear. The thought of its success alternately scares me and motivates me to resist. It ought to do so for all of us. Because the sleep of reason, Bill, becomes a nightmare.

— Bernie



Dear Bernie:

Hardly had I read your letter than up popped a report from The New Republic disclosing that the Science Office at the Environmental Science Office has removed “Science” from its mission statement. I’m not making this up. Donald Trump and Steve Bannon had been president for only a few days before the big energy companies started receiving payback for supporting their campaign by removing “science” in the paragraph describing what the agency does — or did until the Age of Trump dawned. According to The New Republic, “The EPA’s Office of Science and Technology has historically been in charge of developing clean water standards for states. Before Jan. 30 of this year, the website said those standards were ‘science-based,’ meaning they were based on what peer-reviewed science recommended as safe levels of pollutants for drinking, swimming, or fishing. Since Jan. 30, though, the reference to ‘science-based’ standards has disappeared.”

How prescient you were, Bernie.


Bill Moyers
I'm pretty sure everyone knows this comic strip.

Quoting 563. Neapolitan:

Well, the economy is booming now thanks to eight years under Trump's predecessor. However, given that "the end of his 1st term" will, if there's any justice in this world, come long before January of 2020, a reelection is not at all likely. IOW: don't hold your breath...


Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:



Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!


Yes, and you know that. 6 months would be a short-term gauge, and 1 year would be demonstrative of a any affects of the policies enacted by the current administration. After that, it'll be all Trump's to embrace or try to explain.
615. elioe
Quoting 605. daddyjames:



I've found another graph.



This shows some 900 FDD by mid-December, while your graph shows more than 1000.
Also, this shows some 1400 FDD by mid-January, while your graph shows more than 1600.

I try to find mid-February FDD's from another source. But at least the volume-FDD relation was still anomalous by January. But: the anomaly is not growing, indicating that the recent freezing has proceeded "as expected" when compared to other years. And indeed, now Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the bulk of ice covered area has achieved a sea ice concentration of very close to 100%. So heat transfer coefficient should be pretty normal also.
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:



Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!


Trump can claim only the growing stock market bubble as his own, largely due to all the favors Wall Street and the swamp banks are expecting. The factory investments and jobs he's touting were all locked in months and years ago, and he's lying when he claims any credit for them. The recent low unemployment numbers are from longer-term policies, and not long ago he was claiming these numbers were off by almost 10X anyway.
617. skook
.
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:



Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
So you believe that the Repub Congress was responsible for the economic recovery from Dubya's carnage? !!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
Quoting 519. wunderkidcayman:



I find this one to be a bit more defined



anyway been watching it for past few weeks warm pool is shrinking and getting weaker cool pools getting bigger

anyway looking at everything I do think it will be similar to 2011 La Nina weakens early year Neutral spring then return La Nina in Summer

btw models back same time in 2011 showed ENSO warming even warmer than what actually happened eventually models came around to the idea eventually
right now the models are already trending a bit cooler eg before like only a week or two ago CFS showed Neutral going into El Nino with strengthening El Nino late in year 1.0 and increasing now CFS hardly even shows an El Nino ( 0.5)
its not only the CFS other models eg GFDL, GFDL FLOR, NASA, NCAR CESM and to lesser extend NMME are trending cooler

There just isn't a well defined warm pool at the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific that is typically seen before strong El Nios. This time in 1997 and 2015, we already had large areas of 4-6C anomalies in the subsurface.
I love it when the conspiracy crowd does the laughing thing. I couldn't make that stuff up.
This man...the to use trumps words the "so called" epa director is just another piece of low life scum.

As far as this climate issue is concerned it really bothers me when people, particularly public figures on either side whom lack the scientific creditentials are interviewed/given platforms on this issue.

To the best of my knowledge this jerk appointed to the epa is NOT a scientist and has no special understanding, education, credentials, ect... in climate science, day to day weather forcasting or meteorology period! Therefore as a person who has chosen public service owes it to the public he represents to truthfully and accurately as possible communicate the facts and findings 98% of the individuals who ARE experts. To do what he and many who push this conservative agenda is at least a disservice and misleading, at most its dangerous.

I've studied weather for over 30 years and the facts and findings of the phenomenon of climate change have been clearly established and mostly accurately presented to the public. However in my opinion, being a "glass half empty" guy I do have a handful of disagreements on what can or cant be done going forward and the accuracy of trying to accurately predict the climate over the long term.

In my opinion agreements like the paris accords, while well intentioned probably will not achieve the desired results hoped for even if enforced to letter. Unfortunately we know human nature being as it is that many countries and businesses will cheat; therefore it probably will do more harm then good financially speaking.

I and many scientists do largely agree we are likely well past any point of return. The best that can be hoped for is for the situation to be managed as best as possible, obviously that's much easier said then done.

I largely agree the long term effects will negatively impact and more severely on humans as well as are fellow plant and animal species. Being that said even the best climate scientists will concede predicting local weather with any accuracy beyond a 14 day period is very difficult let alone the climate over years, decades, centuries or longer. How earths climate evolves overtime is still very poorly understood.

The physical earth itself will be fine. All credible scientists agree the earth has its own very affective self cleaning/regulating methods; therefore it will take care of the problem likely at the expense of both human, animal and plant life.

In the opinion of many humans and their various religions seem to hold the flawed notion man is all supreme and has exclusive rights to whatever it wants. Its that inherent flaw that will do us in. I do believe in god, would love to think god is somehow personally involved in our personal lives however aside from there being no evidence I think the true existence of god is beyond the understanding of certainly humans but in fact all life in the universe.
In my opinion all life is here on earth and likely other places in the universe with a right to existence and its ability to compete for resources to better their species. When a species goes beyond its purpose in the chain of life the controls in place...the awesome power of the universe i.e. "God" kick in usually resulting in the extinction of a species.
While I got a bit off topic to reiterate its the responsibility of all public officials to make the public aware the climate is changing, its mainly due to humans (not 100% but 85-90% and that's being generous). In the short term I contend its unlikely any catastrophic affects will not be felt by the majority of the population. Neither my gf or I have children, me being 50, her 36, were unlikely to; therefore I'm not going to lose sleep over climate change. My message again, private individuals can choose to accept or reject the truth but it should be made clear in uncertain terms this IS a problem.
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:



Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
Ok, here's your chance: name the actual policy and/or policies enacted by Trump that have resulted in the current upswing in the economy: low unemployment, rising stock market, and so on.

I'll wait. TIA.
LoL,..

Facts?

Dat ain't gonna happen.
Graphic: Zachary Labe

Total freezing degree days (FDD) & Total freezing degree days (FDD) anomalies in the Arctic (80°N+)


Total freezing degree days (FDD) in the Arctic (80°N+) calculated from ERA40 and ECMWF. Data modified from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (DMI). FDD are summed over the differences from the freezing point of sea water (-1.8°C).


Total freezing degree days (FDD) anomalies in the Arctic (80°N+) calculated from ERA40 and ECMWF. Data modified from http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (DMI). FDD are summed over the differences from the freezing point of sea water (-1.8°C). Anomalies are calculated from the ERA40 1958-2002 mean.
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:

Because of his predecessor???!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOLOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLO LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!


This was the chart Pres. No 45 was boasting with some days ago on Twitter. What's very obvious though is the upward trend all over the terms of Obama, no? And it looks like that caring for environment and climate must not contradict economic success at all.
Speaking of the Arctic, this sea ice volume graph (based on PIOMAS data) paints a pretty disturbing picture, no?

Click for larger image:
627. elioe
Here's a recent graph, which begins calculating FDD from September onward. This shows 300 less FDD by mid-February, than daddyjames' graph in #205.



Addition... daddyjames, are you calculating the FDD from zero degrees Celsius? It would explain this.
Quoting 615. elioe:



I've found another graph.



This shows some 900 FDD by mid-December, while your graph shows more than 1000.
Also, this shows some 1400 FDD by mid-January, while your graph shows more than 1600.

I try to find mid-February FDD's from another source. But at least the volume-FDD relation was still anomalous by January. But: the anomaly is not growing, indicating that the recent freezing has proceeded "as expected" when compared to other years. And indeed, now Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the bulk of ice covered area has achieved a sea ice concentration of very close to 100%. So heat transfer coefficient should be pretty normal also.


To calculate the FDD's I am using data from Cryosphere Computing, and am using the 0 degree C as the freezing point instead of the -1.8 C. It really does not matter which you use, as you would get similar results (as long as you use the same FDD computation for all years, as I have done). This explains the differences noted in the DMI versus my graph.

I am getting the temp data to calculate the FDD from DMI.












Scott Pruitt is absolutely right. All of nature is cyclical. Recorded history allows us to view only a small segment of earth's temperature cycle. We are seeing the warming segment of the cycle. In the 1950's the "experts" warned us that human activity would cause the earth to enter another ice age. They were wrong and today's global warming alarmists are also wrong. The motives of some alarmists, such as Al Gore, are suspect because they are positioned to profit from governmental regulations that attempt to influence this naturally occurring cycle. Those efforts to influence the cycle will not succeed, and will only cause economic hardship and negatively impact our quality of life.
Quoting 626. Neapolitan:

Speaking of the Arctic, this sea ice volume graph (based on PIOMAS data) paints a pretty disturbing picture, no?

Click for larger image:



If the Arctic responds as well as it has in the past few years, it'll max out about 2,300 km^3 below the lowest recorded maximum volume. That is the best that it could do, based upon the rates of increase observed in the recent past years.

Addendum: Given the season though, I don't expect that it'll be that good. Think it'll max out somewhere around or just above 20,000 km^3
Quoting 612. PensacolaDoug:


I always miss your humor.
Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:

Scott Pruitt is absolutely right. All of nature is cyclical. Recorded history allows us to view only a small segment of earth's temperature cycle. We are seeing the warming segment of the cycle. In the 1950's the "experts" warned us that human activity would cause the earth to enter another ice age. They were wrong and today's global warming alarmists are also wrong. The motives of some alarmists, such as Al Gore, are suspect because they are positioned to profit from governmental regulations that attempt to influence this naturally occurring cycle. Those efforts to influence the cycle will not succeed, and will only cause economic hardship and negatively impact our quality of life.
Eight sentences, every one of them absolutely, laughably, provably wrong.

Why do you guys even bother? Seriously, is it desperation? Or something else?
Quoting 615. elioe:



I've found another graph.



This shows some 900 FDD by mid-December, while your graph shows more than 1000.
Also, this shows some 1400 FDD by mid-January, while your graph shows more than 1600.

I try to find mid-February FDD's from another source. But at least the volume-FDD relation was still anomalous by January. But: the anomaly is not growing, indicating that the recent freezing has proceeded "as expected" when compared to other years. And indeed, now Climate Reanalyzer shows, that the bulk of ice covered area has achieved a sea ice concentration of very close to 100%. So heat transfer coefficient should be pretty normal also.


Here is another way you can visualize it. Data is until March 9th (I have to update it). It is actually still increasing percentage-wise compared with climatology, but should be leveling off soon.

Ah yes I forgot to mention the frequent misuse of the quotation marks in addition to the laughing by the conspiracy crowd as amusing. I like to refer to it as the "Bennet Brauer routine".

In addition to fifth grade level Earth Science being real and not a conspiracy I am now under a Winter Storm Watch.


Winter Storm Watch
Issued: 9:38 AM EDT Mar. 12, 2017 – National Weather Service


... Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Tuesday morning
through Wednesday evening...

* hazard types... heavy snow.

* Accumulations... greater than 6 inches of snow is possible
Tuesday into Wednesday.

* Timing... snow will begin Tuesday morning. The heaviest snow and
most significant impacts are expected Tuesday night. Snow will
taper off Wednesday.

* Temperatures... in the lower 20s.

* Winds... north 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* Impacts... potentially heavy snow Tuesday into Wednesday may
lead to dangerous travel conditions.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor
the latest forecasts.


As far as storm snowfall total forecast goes I have seen it swing up and down recently and right now it is for 12+ inches in my area according to WU.
Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:


Are you an economic alarmist?
Quoting 626. Neapolitan:

Speaking of the Arctic, this sea ice volume graph (based on PIOMAS data) paints a pretty disturbing picture, no?


I have a question. If I'm not mistaken, arctic sea ice extent peaks around this time of year; mid-March. It looks, from your graph, that the annual peak in volume doesn't occur until late April. What accounts for the difference in timing?

With all this unsubstantiated denial drivel trickling into this comment section I'm becoming more concerned about the upcoming switch to Disqus by WU. Was on Breitbart for the first time where those folks were dancing a jig because of Pruitt's attacks on EPA (disgusting!). And as my old Disqus account is now activated due to aqua's new WU forum I could have commented on that B article right away if I only could have stand that nonsense more than a few seconds, lol. But of course, it will be the other way round as well once WU will have joined Disqus. I'm NOT looking forward neither to swaths of denialist comments contaminating our blog nor to the constant need to defeat them!
Obvious: If anything, we are farther from getting Science recognized as the correct way to arrive at good conclusions than we were during the 1800s. And that should tell us something more. One of those things is that letting politicians set laws for everyone isn't working because that's not what motivates politicians.

Also RE: "Business Philosophy" -- we do not have Capitalism as classically defined. What we have is a system wherein the "owners" put profits above all else and automatically reject anything which does not directly serve that purpose, even rejecting delays in getting profits or reducing profits in the least.

Scientists are not strategists or born persuaders. So they are no match for people who are (and that of course includes President Trump). Maybe Scientists should come up with a scientific way of being more persuasive.
641. bwi
12z wobbled down a little on jackpot for my part of DC area (a bit to the NE), but still pretty good totals

12z

6z
Quoting 637. kestrel68:


I have a question. If I'm not mistaken, arctic sea ice extent peaks around this time of year; mid-March. It looks, from your graph, that the annual peak in volume doesn't occur until late April. What accounts for the difference in timing?




I believe insolation (increased sunlight) combined with warming ocean waters causes melting of the thinner ice marking the edge of the extent/area. Volume continues to increase during this time where there is thicker ice and less melting occurring at the sea surface.

Addendum: That will be, I think, definitive of this "freeze" season. Just how much the ice thickens (or doesn't) from this point onward.
643. bwi
Uh OH. 12z ECMWF WAAAAY deeper low, in just the right spot. GFS had trended a little cooler, although the freezing line very close to me on EC. Looks like a big one maybe.

12z


0z
Quoting 549. PensacolaDoug:



Oh I see a trend alright.
Don't hold back...Tell us how you really feel.
P.S. If the economy is kicking ass at the end of his 1st term, he'll be re-elected.


He will not complete his first term. He and his administration are so corrupt that it simply can't last, unless they go for martial law. Rachel Maddow recently established beyond all doubt that the Trump transition team, the head of which was VP Pence, was informed back in November that Flynn needed to register as an agent of Turkey, from which he received over half a million dollars while publicly calling for the deportation back to Turkey of a Moslem Cleric currently living in Pennsylvania, whom Assad wants to kill. THis week's New Yorker has a fine article about Trump working with a fellow with direct ties to an Iranian Terrorist organization to funnel money to that organization. Trump is also under lawsuit because his hotel is drawing international visitors hoping to curry favor by staying there, and so competes unfairy. Did you know that Trump built his nice hotel in 'Vegas, only to be turned down for a gambling license because his connections were too unsavory?

And this will prove to be only the beginning.
Quoting 602. MahFL:

Well JAX NWS screwed up my temp forecast today, it was forecast to be 67F and it is currently 77F.


All the nearby PWS's seem to disagree.

Trump, denied a gambling license by Nevada, has been granted a license (by almost half of the voters) to gamble with the futures of citizens of the U.S.
Quoting 640. ArborPics:

Obvious: If anything, we are farther from getting Science recognized as the correct way to arrive at good conclusions than we were during the 1800s. And that should tell us something more. One of those things is that letting politicians set laws for everyone isn't working because that's not what motivates politicians.

Also RE: "Business Philosophy" -- we do not have Capitalism as classically defined. What we have is a system wherein the "owners" put profits above all else and automatically reject anything which does not directly serve that purpose, even rejecting delays in getting profits or reducing profits in the least.

Scientists are not strategists or born persuaders. So they are no match for people who are (and that of course includes President Trump). Maybe Scientists should come up with a scientific way of being more persuasive.


Scientists are persuaders - but they let the data and facts do the persuading. And there is always that misrepresentation of any "uncertainty" associated with any findings.
Best to allow scientists do what they do, and others speak for them.
The only other way I could see being an effective mechanism for communicating the seriousness of the situation would be that scientists en masse simply walk out - go on strike or whatever term you want to use.
If the system wants to denigrate the contributions of science, well then maybe scientists should refuse to participate with the system. Same for educators, for that matter. If there was a nationwide walk out of educators and scientists, perhaps people would sit up and take notice just how valuable their contributions are.
Quoting 640. ArborPics:


Scientists are not strategists or born persuaders. So they are no match for people who are (and that of course includes President Trump). Maybe Scientists should come up with a scientific way of being more persuasive.


Scientists should be allowed to act like scientists. Congress should be in charge of promoting science, and encouraging them with stable budgets. JMAO :-/
Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:

Scott Pruitt is absolutely right. All of nature is cyclical. Recorded history allows us to view only a small segment of earth's temperature cycle. We are seeing the warming segment of the cycle. In the 1950's the "experts" warned us that human activity would cause the earth to enter another ice age. They were wrong and today's global warming alarmists are also wrong. The motives of some alarmists, such as Al Gore, are suspect because they are positioned to profit from governmental regulations that attempt to influence this naturally occurring cycle. Those efforts to influence the cycle will not succeed, and will only cause economic hardship and negatively impact our quality of life.

This "cycle" you speak of has reasons behind it, one of them being the level of heat trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. Humans are currently pumping thousands of tons of CO2 and smaller amounts of other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every hour. This will cause a rapid spike in global temperatures due to increased levels of greenhouse gases caused by the burning of fossil fuels by humans. The current spike in global temperatures is too fast for many species to adapt and is causing a mass extinction. Here's more info on why current global temperature rises are so alarming Link EDIT: Also, most scientists predicted warming in the 60s and 70s (62% predicted warming vs 10% who predicted cooling during that time period) Link
ECMWF, 12z, 57h


Source.
Quoting 619. HurricaneFan:


There just isn't a well defined warm pool at the subsurface of the equatorial Pacific that is typically seen before strong El Ni�os. This time in 1997 and 2015, we already had large areas of 4-6C anomalies in the subsurface.


even this time back in 2009 and 2006 and 2004 and 2002 the warm pools were stronger and those were weak-moderate El Nino years too

but the sub surface temp profile is similar to 2011 that was La Nina-Neutral-La Nina year

and as I said I think that's what we might be looking at for this year
Quoting 637. kestrel68:


I have a question. If I'm not mistaken, arctic sea ice extent peaks around this time of year; mid-March. It looks, from your graph, that the annual peak in volume doesn't occur until late April. What accounts for the difference in timing?


Daddyjames (#642) pretty much nailed it. First-year Arctic sea ice reaches its thermodynamic equilibrium thickness, roughly 3m, in April, when the ice best insulates the underlying ocean from the warming atmosphere; after that, increasing warmth from above and below overcomes that insulation, and the ice disappears.
Recon was out last night and will be flying this afternoon


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. A65/DROP 6 (34.3N 72.0W)/ 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK65
C. 12/1900Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 13/0200Z


Link

Today's WSPOD cancelled the flight.
Quoting 649. MrTornadochase:


This "cycle" you speak of has reasons behind it, one of them being the level of heat trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. Humans are currently pumping thousands of tons of CO2 and smaller amounts of other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere every hour. This will cause a rapid spike in global temperatures due to increased levels of greenhouse gases caused by the burning of fossil fuels by humans. The current spike in global temperatures is too fast for many species to adapt and is causing a mass extinction unseen since the dinosaurs died. Here's more info on why current global temperature rises are so alarming Link



Nasa claims the Earth warmed about 15 degrees in 10 years. That was a little over 10 thousand years ago.Link
The dinosoaurs died out about 65 million years ago.

Is Nasa's information incorrect?
Quoting 654. Sfloridacat5:




Nasa claims the Earth warmed about 15 degrees in 10 years. That was little over 10 thousand years ago.Link
The dinosoaurs died out about 65 million years ago.

Is Nasa's information incorrect?

Sorry, my mistake. Corrected it.
Quoting 654. Sfloridacat5:




Nasa claims the Earth warmed about 15 degrees in 10 years. That was little over 10 thousand years ago.Link
The dinosoaurs died out about 65 million years ago.

Is Nasa's information incorrect?


Where do you get "over 10 years" from the link you provided?

I found it! Sorry SFLcat5

And it is a theory that describes that, if we don't take any measures to stop what is happening, we could be in a world of hurt!.
This is a theory - I personally do not wish to experience any data to confirm this in mine - or my child's - lifetime.
Sfloridacat5
The warming around 10,00 years ago also caused/contributed significantly to species' extinctions, including the Wolly Mammoth Link
The winter that I've missed is returning tonight?

660. elioe
All graphs, x-axis is the cumulative FDD. Blue lines indicate freezing seasons 2010-11 to 2015-16, red line 2016-17.

On y-axis:
Top left: increase in Arctic ice volume from September (1000 km³)
Top right: Arctic ice volume (1000 km³)
Bottom left: Volume divided by extent, difference from September (m)
Bottom right: Volume divided by extent, absolute value (m)

Click to expand.



The difference in this year's behavior is seen only in top left graph. But, assuming that a similar proportion of ice volume growth happens north of 80 degrees N each year, increase in Arctic ice volume from September is exactly what matters. Now, like before, I have no way to check if that assumption is correct.
Quoting 654. Sfloridacat5:




Nasa claims the Earth warmed about 15 degrees in 10 years. That was a little over 10 thousand years ago.Link
The dinosoaurs died out about 65 million years ago.

Is Nasa's information incorrect?
You forgot this part from the link: "...one-third to one-half of the warming—about 15 degrees Fahrenheit—occurred in about 10 years, at least in Greenland". That is, the ice cores from which that 10-year rise were found were all in the Greenland ice cap, though not echoed elsewhere. The current thinking is that a massive dump of melting fresh water glaciers disturbed the ocean's primary currents, throwing things into disarray.
re: #656 daddyjames,

How do you overstrike a line of text like that? TIA
forecast of 31 THU morn......I'll have to throw an oak leaf cover on the potatoes & other sprouting seedlings in the spring garden
Quoting 662. ChiThom:

re: #656 daddyjames,

How do you overstrike a line of text like that? TIA


use -- strike & /strike html tags
Quoting 660. elioe:

All graphs, x-axis is the cumulative FDD. Blue lines indicate freezing seasons 2010-11 to 2015-16, red line 2016-17.

On y-axis:
Top left: increase in Arctic ice volume from September (1000 km³)
Top right: Arctic ice volume (1000 km³)
Bottom left: Volume divided by extent, difference from September (m)
Bottom right: Volume divided by extent, absolute value (m)

Click to expand.



The difference in this year's behavior is seen only in top left graph. But, assuming that a similar proportion of ice volume growth happens north of 80 degrees N each year, increase in Arctic ice volume from September is exactly what matters. Now, like before, I have no way to check if that assumption is correct.


Well, the mechanisms remain the same. But this year (obviously) differs in that it took so long to get where it is at right now which is not shown in your graphs.
I am confused as to what you are trying to demonstrate?
lets just say it... of at this point you still support trump.. not republican ideas ( he isnt republican) not abortion , gay rights or any of that but if you still support trump and think he has what it takes then you are nothing more than a white nationalist. if you have seen who he has appointed and how he acts and how he speaks and you still support him then you are a white nationalist with zero concern about anything other than advancing your white nationalist ideas. the man is an idiot. he is a disgrace. if the election was not about a "blacklash" then one of the other candidates would have been the republican nominee. trump spoke their language, referenced their website ( breitbart etc) and appoints their leaders. Bannon is a self admitted leninist who want to destroy all government. so the only reason at this point to support this clow and his so called administration at this point is if you are a white nationalist and care only that white males claim their rightful place back atop the gays , the blacks, women, immigrants, non-christians.
Quoting 662. ChiThom:

re: #656 daddyjames,

How do you overstrike a line of text like that? TIA


"quote" me, and you will see what to put in, but KuCommando is correct.
Thank You, Dr Masters for your enlightening letter. It is incredible what Pruitt and his Imhoffe staffers are up to, gutting the departments they lead. I have wondered what the DOD thinks of all this, since the Admiral of the USN, for example, knows CC is real, that it is a national security threat, and he is by no means alone. We all know science is key, and the DOD depends on the very best science in technology, meteorology, etc. No matter the drivel deniers say, they have made us lose precious time, 30+ years now in the quest to mitigate the devastation ahead, damning the future for their very own children and grandchildren. How ashamed these children will be of their willfully ignorant political ancestors in the not-to-distant future, and for good reason. It is surreal and frightening that denial of science can be chosen as if a viewpoint - and then enacted and implemented by politicians, thereby endangering us. How great a nation when our leaders stick their heads in the sand (by Choice!)- and lead from that angle?
3 terrifying possible reasons for Trump’s rant about Obama

By Robert ReichMarch 7, 2017 Updated: March 10, 2017 1:42pm



FBI Director James Comey (left) has asked the Justice Department to publicly reject President Trump’s allegations about the wiretapping of his private phones. Photo: AL DRAGO, NYT Photo: AL DRAGO, NYT FBI Director James Comey (left) has asked the Justice Department to publicly reject President Trump’s allegations about the wiretapping of his private phones.


On Saturday last weekend, Donald Trump alleged in a series of tweets that former President Barack Obama orchestrated a “Nixon/Watergate” plot to tap Trump’s phones at his Trump Tower headquarters last fall in the run-up to the election. Trump concluded that the former president is a “Bad (or sick) guy!”

Last Sunday morning, Trump’s White House called for a congressional investigation.

Trump cited no evidence for his accusation.

Folks, we’ve got a huge problem on our hands. Either:

1 Trump is more nuts than we suspected — a true delusional paranoid. Trump’s outburst was seemingly triggered by commentary March 3 in the alt-right publication Breitbart News, which reported an assertion made the night before by right-wing talk-radio host Mark Levin suggesting that Obama and his administration used “police state” tactics last fall to monitor the Trump team’s dealings with Russian operatives.

If this was the case, we’ve got a president willing to put the prestige and power of his office behind baseless claims emanating from well-known right-wing purveyors of lies. Which means Trump shouldn’t be anywhere near the nuclear codes that could obliterate the planet, or near anything else that could determine the fate of America or the world.

2 The second possibility is that Trump is correct, and the Obama administration did in fact tap his phones. But if this was the case, before the tap could occur, Trump was likely to have committed a very serious crime, possibly treason.

No president can order a wiretap on his own. For federal agents to obtain a wiretap on Trump, the Justice Department would first have had to convince a federal judge that it had gathered sufficient evidence of probable cause to believe Trump had committed a serious crime or was an agent of a foreign power, depending on whether it was a criminal or foreign intelligence wiretap.

In which case we have someone occupying the Oval Office who shouldn’t be making decisions that could endanger America or the world.

3 The third possible explanation for Trump’s rant is that he’s trying to divert public attention from the Jeff Sessions imbroglio and multiple investigations of Trump associates already found to have been in contact with Russian agents during the election, at a time when Russian operatives interfered with the election on Trump’s behalf.

Maybe he’s trying to build a case that the entire Russia story is a plot concocted by the Obama administration — along with the intelligence agencies and the mainstream media — to bring Trump down. That way, he can inoculate himself against more damaging evidence to come.

But if it’s all a big show to divert attention and undermine the credibility of the intelligence agencies and the media, Trump is willing to do anything to keep his job — even if it means further dividing America, undermining trust in our governing institutions, and destroying the fabric of our democracy.

So there you have it. Whatever the reason for Trump’s rant, America is in deep trouble. We have a president who is either a dangerous paranoid who’s making judgments based on right-wing crackpots, or has in all likelihood committed treason, or is willing to sacrifice public trust in our basic institutions to further his selfish goals.

Each of these possible reasons is as terrifying as the other.

But for Democrats to be the only ones sounding the alarm risks turning it into a new normal of partisanship. For Obama himself to respond to Trump’s latest rant would only dignify it.

So the responsibility falls to Republican leaders. They must stand up and call this what it is: dangerous demagoguery.

We are depending on former Republican Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, former Republican senators and members of Congress, and current Republican senators and members of Congress, to have the courage and decency to stop this outrage.

We are in a serious crisis of governance, and their voices are critical.

© 2017 Robert Reich

Robert Reich, a former U.S. Secretary of Labor, is professor of public policy at UC Berkeley. His daily blog is at www.facebook.com/RBReich/.
672. elioe
Quoting 665. daddyjames:



Well, the mechanisms remain the same. But this year (obviously) differs in that it took so long to get where it is at right now which is not shown in your graphs.
I am confused as to what you are trying to demonstrate?


That

1) during the early months of this freezing season, the ice cover was extraordinarily slushy/fractured/incoherent. Not only based on this peculiar behavior, but if I recall correctly, even in late December, Climate Reanalyzer showed patches of only 70% sea ice concentration around North Pole. As a result, deep within the ice cover, open water interacted directly with air. This increased heat flux from water to air, causing sea ice volume to increase more rapidly that would be typically predicted by FDD accumulation.

2) As a result, any old empirical formulae relating ice volume growth to FDD don't apply.

3) If this behavior is as integral part of AGW-related trends, as volume and extent losses are, such empirical formulae will continue to be useless forever. I don't see any reason, why it wouldn't.

Again, this all relies on the validity of the assumption I made in #660.
Stockholm's Mayor is Taking on Climate Change
Climate Central, March 12, 2017
"Leadership is really important when you want to make things happen," said the 41-year-old, who has run Sweden's capital city since 2014. "You can always have politicians making nice speeches but when it comes to action you need to have leadership."...

The Trump administration is doing everything it can to keep a huge climate lawsuit from going to trial
Dana Varinsky, Business Insider, 4h ago
The Trump administration is seeking an appeal in a landmark climate change lawsuit — before the case has even gone to trial.
The plaintiffs in the case are 21 kids who now range in age from 9 to 20. They argue that the federal government is violating their constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property by failing to prevent climate change despite long-held knowledge of its dangerous consequences. ...
Quoting 672. elioe:



That

1) during the early months of this freezing season, the ice cover was extraordinarily slushy/fractured/incoherent. Not only based on this peculiar behavior, but if I recall correctly, even in late December, Climate Reanalyzer showed patches of only 70% sea ice concentration around North Pole. As a result, deep within the ice cover, open water interacted directly with air. This increased heat flux from water to air, causing sea ice volume to increase more rapidly that would be typically predicted by FDD accumulation.

2) As a result, any old empirical formulae relating ice volume growth to FDD don't apply.

3) If this behavior is as integral part of AGW-related trends, as volume and extent losses are, such empirical formulae will continue to be useless forever. I don't see any reason, why it wouldn't.

Again, this all relies on the validity of the assumption I made in #660.


But FDD is related to volume in that it is predictive (a proxy) of the accumulated thickness of the ice. This is already well established. Since volume is area*thickness, then yes it is related.

The ice overall is thinner, and thus any increase in extent will contribute greater to volume than it has in the past. This is seen in the standard graphs, where the volume has decreased substantially over the past 38 years versus area (or extent) which has decreased but not as dramatically. This implies that the overall thickness of the ice has decreased dramatically

Is that what you are trying to demonstrate?

And again, if you want to compare the "slushiness" of the ice - you should be using area and not extent, as area takes into account the open, ice free regions within the ice pack as opposed to extent which by definition ignores those regions.

Quoting 675. Gearsts:



Lots of spread in the ensembles...we are at the Spring Predictability Barrier time of year. However I do think CFS develops El Nino WAY too fast, showing El Nino building in by April...

Quoting 662. ChiThom:

re: #656 daddyjames,

How do you overstrike a line of text like that? TIA
Grab it by the - - -
Quoting 675. Gearsts:

Low confidence there, it would seem. #SPB
For example elioe, This is painfully obvious using this graph.



Just a simple example, but a huge decrease in volume (compared to climatology) as opposed to area (little overall decrease). Thus, the main driver of loss of volume has been a continual loss of thicker ice, and overall decrease in the thickness of the ice present in the Arctic.

This is why being concerned about the extent/area of the ice in the Arctic is a poor indicator of how things are really doing there. One should focus upon the volume/thickness of the ice as this is what has shown the most dramatic change.

Edit: The Triangles are indicative of volume, the Squares are indicative of Area data. And it should be the Freeze/Melt Season (not just Freeze Season).
Quoting 678. MontanaZephyr:

The New Yorker: Donald Trump's Worst Deal
The President helped build a hotel in Azerbaijan that appears to be a corrupt operation engineered by oligarchs tied to Iran's Revolutionary Guard.




Sketchy Donald Trump Deal Eyed For Ties To Iran | Rachel Maddow | MSNBC

Published on Mar 6, 2017

Rachel Maddow describes the reporting published in The New Yorker about a Donald Trump business deal that raises a lot of red flags, not the least of which is an alarmingly close proximity to the business of the Iranian National Guard, sponsor of terrorism.
Excerpt from National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.
Quoting 680. daddyjames:

For example elioe, This is painfully obvious using this graph.



Just a simple example, but a huge decrease in volume (compared to climatology) as opposed to area (little overall decrease). Thus, the main driver of loss of volume has been a continual loss of thicker ice, and overall decrease in the thickness of the ice present in the Arctic.

This is why being concerned about the extent of the ice in the Arctic is a poor indicator of how things are really doing there. One should focus upon the volume/thickness of the ice as this is what has shown the most dramatic change.

Edit: The Triangles are indicative of volume, the Squares are indicative of Area data.


So for instance, the volume this season 2016-2017 increased from September to November (1 to 3 on the x-axis) - but primarily through increase in area, not by thickness. In November, the overall thickness of the ice decreased (to almost one meter) because of the relatively rapid increase in area.

Edited for clarification. And it is for the Freeze/Melt season, not just freeze season.
Quoting 642. daddyjames:

Quoting 652. Neapolitan:


Thanks for the info.



Quoting 683. daddyjames:



So for instance, the volume this season 2016-2017 increased from September to November (1 to 3 on the x-axis) - but primarily through increase in area, not by thickness. In November, the overall thickness of the ice decreased (to almost one meter) because of the relatively rapid increase in area.

Edited for clarification. And it is for the Freeze/Melt season, not just freeze season.


Not only does size matter, so does thickness.
Quoting 685. Dakster:



Not only does size matter, so does thickness.


LOL - I'm not touching that with a 10ft pole.
Issuing Office: New York City
Source: National.Weather.Service

4:12pm EDT, Sun Mar 12

... BLIZZARD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... * LOCATIONS... NEW YORK CITY, LONG ISLAND, SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN, MIDDLESEX, AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 12 TO 18 INCHES. * TIMING... LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS... DANGEROUS TRAVEL AND POTENTIAL FOR POWER OUTAGES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. &&
More Information

... MAJOR WINTER STORM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...
Quoting 537. Neapolitan:

If there's a silver lining, it's the hope that the Trump regime will be as woefully inept and ineffective at stripping government climate and environmental protections as they have been with everything else they've promised to do but failed. Miserably. They promised a wall built by Mexicans; that's not going to happen. They promised a Muslim ban; v2 is as unconstitutional as v1, so will suffer the same ignominious fate. They promised to dump the ACA; that "repeal and replace" has been an absolute disaster. His Director of National Security lasted about as long as a child's popsicle before being tossed out on his ear. There's been no sign of his promised trillion-dollar infrastructure plan; no sign of his promised tax reform; no sign of pretty much anything. So while Pruitt and Trump "promised" to work together to ignore decades of solid science so that ExxonMobil's shareholders might buy an extra Bentley or two, their proven inability to actually, you know, legislate and govern might prevent the most destructive dreams of the regime from ever happening.

Maybe? {crosses fingers}
Paul Krugman wrote a column about this where he used the term "malevolence tempered by incompetence", which he credits to Benjamin Wittes.
Quoting 479. daddyjames:

Given that a good portion of the infrastructure supporting New York City is underground, I wonder just how viable this would be?
Buildings collapsing as their foundations rot and rust away underwater is part of the plot.
Quoting 690. BaltimoreBrian:

Buildings collapsing as their foundations rot and rust away underwater is part of the plot.


I was thinking all of the electrical and plumbing, primarily.


Water Pup not going to be a happy camper......

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
508 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017


...Strong Northeast Winds Continue Tonight Along the Coast...
...Near Record Cold and Widespread Freezes Expected Wednesday
Night through Thursday Night...


We are thus expecting a widespread advective freeze, with some inland locations flirting with hard freeze criteria by early Thursday morning. Daily record low temperatures for March 16 will be challenged at most of our climate sites (see climate section below for details).
Quoting 660. elioe:

All graphs, x-axis is the cumulative FDD. Blue lines indicate freezing seasons 2010-11 to 2015-16, red line 2016-17.

On y-axis:
Top left: increase in Arctic ice volume from September (1000 km%uFFFD)
Top right: Arctic ice volume (1000 km%uFFFD)
Bottom left: Volume divided by extent, difference from September (m)
Bottom right: Volume divided by extent, absolute value (m)

Click to expand.



The difference in this year's behavior is seen only in top left graph. But, assuming that a similar proportion of ice volume growth happens north of 80 degrees N each year, increase in Arctic ice volume from September is exactly what matters. Now, like before, I have no way to check if that assumption is correct.


Your data actually demonstrates this.
FDD is a proxy for thickness (Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (degree C) ^0.58).
The plot in the upper left corner is a plot of Volume vs "thickness (well a portion of it)" and the resulting slope of the line would be the extent.
The slopes of your line indicates an increase in extent as the primary driver of the increase in volume in the beginning and then a decrease in the contribution of extent (why it plateaus out) as the number of FDDs accumulate.

Edit: of course, you should be using area.

Additional Edit: As far as dividing volume by extent and plotting it versus FDD. You are roughly plotting (thickness/1.33)^2 vs FDD. I use the estimation, as extent is not the proper parameter that you should be using (it is an overestimate of the area). That and I don't want to do the more complex math at the moment cause I have to run.

Even More Edit: But before I go, if you do the proper calculations, and the results demonstrate that there is some discrepancy in FDD and volume/thickness, then you would demonstrate that potentially something else is influencing ice formation in the Arctic. Now, whether this is ice flow, storminess, warm ocean water melting the ice from below would be subject to further investigation. But it would not be indicative of anything other than that something else, some other mechanism, is influencing the amount of ice in the Arctic. Nothing more than that. Because the relationship between FDD and ice thickness makes some assumptions (calm lake, wind free) that obviously are not in play in the Arctic Ocean..
Quoting 691. daddyjames:

I was thinking all of the electrical and plumbing, primarily.
In the novel, sea level has risen 50 feet, so Manhattan north of 40th street is mostly above water. The subways are abandoned--there are water taxis and walkways. Some major buildings in the flood zone have their own power--many people squat in other abandoned buildings, which occasionally collapse. Most of Queens and Brooklyn are flooded and uninhabited. Staten Island, with hills to over 400 feet, is densely built. Halfway through the book there is not much said of the Bronx.
Quoting 695. BaltimoreBrian:

In the novel, sea level has risen 50 feet, so Manhattan north of 40th street is mostly above water. The subways are abandoned--there are water taxis and walkways. Some major buildings in the flood zone have their own power--many people squat in other abandoned buildings, which occasionally collapse. Most of Queens and Brooklyn are flooded and uninhabited. Staten Island, with hills to over 400 feet, is densely built. Halfway through the book there is not much said of the Bronx.


What does he have against the Bronx - and what about Harlem?
I was kind of thinking this was a weather website, not a political discussion forum. As far as global warming, we've only been keeping weather records for less than 150 years. Could the earth be going through a part of a larger cycle of warming and cooling? Also, I find it fascinating how the atmosphere is able to clear itself. 20 or 30 years ago there was a large concern about the ozone layer, but from what I understand, the ozone layer has at least partially healed itself. Again, I propose that since we have only been studying this part of our atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time, this kind of thing may have been happening for years. I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time, but if carbon emissions are the main factors of "global warming", the mid to late 1800's would have been bad days indeed. If what is said about Mr. Pruitt is all true, e.g., the e-mail situation, he does not seem deserving of his job. However, I remember someone else that no one likes to talk about that did something similar, only with much more sensitive information. Someone who was a former secretary of state, perhaps?
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I was kind of thinking this was a weather website, not a political discussion forum. As far as global warming, we've only been keeping weather records for less than 150 years. Could the earth be going through a part of a larger cycle of warming and cooling? Also, I find it fascinating how the atmosphere is able to clear itself. 20 or 30 years ago there was a large concern about the ozone layer, but from what I understand, the ozone layer has at least partially healed itself. Again, I propose that since we have only been studying this part of our atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time, this kind of thing may have been happening for years. I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time, but if carbon emissions are the main factors of "global warming", the mid to late 1800's would have been bad days indeed. If what is said about Mr. Pruitt is all true, e.g., the e-mail situation, he does not seem deserving of his job. However, I remember someone else that no one likes to talk about that did something similar, only with much more sensitive information. Someone who was a former secretary of state, perhaps?


You have a point. A not-so-valid, incorrect, ignorant, not pertinent to what is happening now point. But you have a point.
18 Z GFS

Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I was kind of thinking this was a weather website, not a political discussion forum. As far as global warming, we've only been keeping weather records for less than 150 years. Could the earth be going through a part of a larger cycle of warming and cooling? Also, I find it fascinating how the atmosphere is able to clear itself. 20 or 30 years ago there was a large concern about the ozone layer, but from what I understand, the ozone layer has at least partially healed itself. Again, I propose that since we have only been studying this part of our atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time, this kind of thing may have been happening for years. I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time, but if carbon emissions are the main factors of "global warming", the mid to late 1800's would have been bad days indeed. If what is said about Mr. Pruitt is all true, e.g., the e-mail situation, he does not seem deserving of his job. However, I remember someone else that no one likes to talk about that did something similar, only with much more sensitive information. Someone who was a former secretary of state, perhaps?


We've made a lot of progress in particulate matter emissions - which is why the air is clear. C02 is odorless, colorless, tasteless.

Population and machines generating C02 have not decreased over the years, they have increased. How many cars were on the road in the 1800s vs the 1900s vs. today. (as one example)

I, too,believe that the Earth can heal itself, and that there are cycles. It's the speed at which this warming cycle is occurring that is troubling.

However, let's say all the scientists are wrong that "we" are not contributing to global warming - but we made a better place anyways. What's the harm? Let's use PV, Solar heating, Geothermal, Wind, Tide, Hydro power and not burn natural gas, propane, methane, coal, wood, gas, diesel.
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I was kind of thinking this was a weather website, not a political discussion forum. As far as global warming, we've only been keeping weather records for less than 150 years. Could the earth be going through a part of a larger cycle of warming and cooling? Also, I find it fascinating how the atmosphere is able to clear itself. 20 or 30 years ago there was a large concern about the ozone layer, but from what I understand, the ozone layer has at least partially healed itself. Again, I propose that since we have only been studying this part of our atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time, this kind of thing may have been happening for years. I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time, but if carbon emissions are the main factors of "global warming", the mid to late 1800's would have been bad days indeed. If what is said about Mr. Pruitt is all true, e.g., the e-mail situation, he does not seem deserving of his job. However, I remember someone else that no one likes to talk about that did something similar, only with much more sensitive information. Someone who was a former secretary of state, perhaps?


The chemistry of stratospheric Ozone was rapidly developed in the 1970s in response to the threat of depletion and the residence time for CFCs of order a decade was correctly estimated. When we collaberated internationally and eliminated them, the stratosphere did clear of them in a couple of decades. Success (for once)

The chemisty and physics of C02 are much better understood and the reality is much grimmer. C02 has a residence time once emitted of over a century so it will take a few centuries for it to revert back to the levels prior to our fossil fuel explosion. We are burning FAR FAR more coal and oil and gas now than we were in the mid 1800s.

We are going through a natural cycle. It's slow cooling. The warming is from an unnatural external
term that cancels and overwhelms that slow cooling.

C02 is 30% higher than it was when I was a kid. It has not been as high as it is now for 800,000 years and is rapidly increasing still.
Reply to oldest comment on the Fox News story about the upcoming northeast snowstorm.

Rvdixie3
10 hours ago

@4ClassicLady Isn't that normal for Phoenix for this time of year. That's why snowbirds flock there each winter. It sure has been a cold winter in the northern States. So much for global warming.
Wow! I love it!

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
332 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...A few rainy days ahead for South Florida...
...Potential cool down mid to late week...

As a low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico associated with the
frontal system begins to progress towards the state on Monday,
shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Monday into Monday
night. Aloft, mid and upper level support for convection has
increased confidence in maintaining thunderstorm wording in the
forecast. While thunderstorms may end up being more isolated in
nature, the rain shower coverage will remain fairly high through
late Monday/early Tuesday. The 12z ECMWF is showing a stronger low
pressure system emerging over the Atlantic coast heading up the
eastern sea board which could encourage additional convection
along the front...went ahead with higher PoPs in this forecast to
trend towards slightly higher rain chances based off this
development.

As the front exits on Tuesday, drier and cooler air will begin to
enter the region. This airmass looks to be one of the driest and
coolest, potentially, that South Florida has seen this winter.
Temperatures in the 40s and 50s can be expected over a large
portion of South Florida from mid week to week`s end. The
sustained period of drier air will make temperatures feel crisp
and we will have to monitor the wind forecast to ensure no wind
chill threat emerges later in the week.
705. bwi
DC upgraded to WSWarning, but just east in Prince George's and Anne Arundel still a watch.

I remember the superstorm of 1993 we got about 6 inches of snow, topped by 3 inches of sleet, which was then frosted by about 1/4 inch of ice. It was so dense and hard frozen that you could walk across it in my neighborhood without leaving footprints. The storm was so strong the warmer air mixed in off the ocean and kept areas east of DC from being truly buried.

This is not same magnitude as the superstorm, but NWS looks like they're following ECMWF guidance, despite the stronger storm they're assuming warm air gets into the column just east of DC.
706. bwi

Like yesterday no problems are expected tonight. High pressure
over the region will bring clear and cold conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

After a winter of warm temperatures a real winter storm is
almost upon us. Again the day on Monday will be fine...allowing
people to prep. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Two short waves coming into phase Monday night. Low pressure is
expected to develop along the Carolina coast...moving to a
position east of ORF around daybreak...east of ACY by midday
Tuesday and then deepening rapidly near Cape Cod that evening.

We are upgrading to a winter storm warning where we feel most
confident - the "prime snow area" which we`ve been discussing
for the past two days - west of I-95 in the northern interior of
our forecast area where we think the combination of abundant
moisture, cold temperatures, and lift will be best.

We are still unsure of exactly what is going to happen east of
I-95 where the possibility of a warm low level intrusion may
occur. Any above freezing air in the column will lead to sleet
and knock totals down. This area remains in a watch.

And south and west remain in a watch as well. It may turn out
that the central Shenandoah Valley ends up being upgraded to a
warning but somewhat of a "marginal" one for around 5". West of
the Blue Ridge may be cut off from the best moisture. On our far
western slopes we may end seeing days of snow showers on upslope
flow.

Clouds should begin to break up Tuesday afternoon. Mid March sun
will help road crews. Icy spots will be possible Tuesday night
thought as temperatures drop well below freezing.
'Hell with the lid taken off': The pictures of bygone Pittsburgh and its residents choking under clouds of thick smog

The pea-souper problem was once so bad that clouds of smoke and pollution would block out the midday sun
Photographs from the 1950s show just how badly the U.S. city suffered before laws on coal burning were introduced

By Lawrence Conway






Horror: The collection of Pittsburgh smog pictures has been put together by the U.S. city's university to show how bad the problem was and how laws were eventually introduced to restrict the burning of coal to tackle the dangerous problem




Grothar what a great comment about Pittsburgh pollution! Would you post it on my blog with the photos please?
Quoting 638. barbamz:

With all this unsubstantiated denial drivel trickling into this comment section I'm becoming more concerned about the upcoming switch to Disqus by WU. Was on Breitbart for the first time where those folks were dancing a jig because of Pruitt's attacks on EPA (disgusting!). And as my old Disqus account is now activated due to aqua's new WU forum I could have commented on that B article right away if I only could have stand that nonsense more than a few seconds, lol. But of course, it will be the other way round as well once WU will have joined Disqus. I'm NOT looking forward neither to swaths of denialist comments contaminating our blog nor to the constant need to defeat them!


I don't think I am even going to try. It is undoubtedly a data-gathering tool. My ad-blocker blocks it just like it blocks virtually all of the advertising on this site. I'll miss the interaction and all the great websites you all share, and the graphs and charts you find or create yourselves, and your sensible temperaments.

Robscribbler.com has some pretty good commenters also with interesting information and links, though some of the posters there DO get carried away in the depths of the night, posting all sorts of music videos. Alas, I got banned from that site: Not long after discovering it, I watched McPherson's presentation, and I did a dark-humor comment to the effect that, of all the ways for the world to end (and there are many pressing in along the horizon) that perhaps climate change was the least objectionable... something like that. I guess I was taken for someone that was advocating for the notion that we should just do nothing. I certainly hadn't meant to troll.

Ah well, the game IS nearly over at any rate. The graphs above seem to suggest that there will be a something fairly close to an arctic clear water event this summer, and once that happens, within just a couple to few years, EVERYTHING will change for the northern hemisphere.

That's just a layman's assessment, but I offer it for the reason that sometimes an outsider can see things about any kind of operation that folks IN the operation don't quite assemble, and not because they can't, of course, but rather the focus of their mindset can be like focusing a lens with a narrow depth of field.... where some things are very clear, but others not so much, or even not visible.

I know we can still have the conversation here for a few more weeks, but I might well take this moment to wish you all well.
Quoting 708. BaltimoreBrian:

Grothar what a great comment about Pittsburgh pollution! Would you post it on my blog with the photos please?


whats the point in doing that with the blogs going away
The blog comments will still be here another 3 weeks, Taz.
Maybe people are too young to remember or have forgotten why agencies were put in place by the Republican administration in the 1970's.





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
Quoting 707. Grothar:

'Hell with the lid taken off': The pictures of bygone Pittsburgh and its residents choking under clouds of thick smog

The pea-souper problem was once so bad that clouds of smoke and pollution would block out the midday sun
Photographs from the 1950s show just how badly the U.S. city suffered before laws on coal burning were introduced

By Lawrence Conway






Horror: The collection of Pittsburgh smog pictures has been put together by the U.S. city's university to show how bad the problem was and how laws were eventually introduced to restrict the burning of coal to tackle the dangerous problem







I believe those photos are from the 1940's as rules were put in place in 1946 to clean it up
Quoting 708. BaltimoreBrian:

Grothar what a great comment about Pittsburgh pollution! Would you post it on my blog with the photos please?


No. :)
Quoting 710. thetwilightzone:



whats the point in doing that with the blogs going away


You're just jealous you didn't post them first.
Quoting 714. Grothar:

No. :)
Awwwww :)
717. bwi
GFS hanging tough with 10 inches or so for me
nymore is correct. I found the Pittsburgh photographs and they were all taken in 1940. An ordinance was passed in 1941 limiting coal burning within the city limits but due to World War II it was not enforced until 1946.
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time ...

Stephen Mosley: Learn lessons of history for cleaner air

Coal and the Industrial Revolution


Youtube video: Air pollution in a historical perspective
First book about air pollution in London: 1661!


Cities of Smog - the history of air pollution, an excerpt
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I was kind of thinking this was a weather website, not a political discussion forum.
Oh, you were thinking that, were you? Probably should've looked at the current blog's title: "EPA Chief Denies Basic Climate Science"
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

As far as global warming, we've only been keeping weather records for less than 150 years.
I know, right? And did you know there are people trying to tell us that great creatures called "dinosaurs" roamed the earth tens of millions of years ago--which is impossible to know, since we've only been around for a few thousand years? Scientists, amirite?
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

Could the earth be going through a part of a larger cycle of warming and cooling?
Yes, absolutely. And children on their way to becoming grown-ups can be overweight at times and underweight at others; does that preclude the possibility that they'll eventually become adults?
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

Also, I find it fascinating how the atmosphere is able to clear itself. 20 or 30 years ago there was a large concern about the ozone layer, but from what I understand, the ozone layer has at least partially healed itself.
Thanks to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the ozone layer was saved. Bottom line: government intervention and regulations work. Who'da thunk it?
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

Again, I propose that since we have only been studying this part of our atmosphere for a relatively short amount of time, this kind of thing may have been happening for years.
If you dismiss the netire field of paleoclimatology, you might be onto something.
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

I have to think back in history to the Industrial Revolution, when many factories appeared both in the US and Europe. At the time they used a certain fuel, called coal, alot to power the factories. I don't remember hearing of any mass death or other like catastrophe during that time, but if carbon emissions are the main factors of "global warming", the mid to late 1800's would have been bad days indeed.
I'm going to take a wild guess that the 12,000 killed and 200,000 injured by 1952's Great Smog of London would probably consider those "bad days indeed". Ditto the victims of the 1930 Meuse Valley fog, the 1939 St. Louis smog, the 1948 Donora smog, the 2013 NE China smog. Those events were all brought on by the burning of "a certain fuel, called coal".
Quoting 697. PennTwp:

If what is said about Mr. Pruitt is all true, e.g., the e-mail situation, he does not seem deserving of his job. However, I remember someone else that no one likes to talk about that did something similar, only with much more sensitive information. Someone who was a former secretary of state, perhaps?
So it's not just climate science facts you have a difficult time with, is it? See, Clinton was investigated numerous times at a cost to the American taxpayer of millions of dollars, and nothing was found. Nothing. Pruitt hasn't been investigated--though he certainly should be.

Anyway, how very disturbing it is to think that my childrens' futures will be adversely affected by an insincere and depraved money-grubber such as Pruitt...
Corner of Liberty and Fifth Avenues, Pittsburgh, 10:55 AM, 1940

Quoting 703. BaltimoreBrian:

Reply to oldest comment on the Fox News story about the upcoming northeast snowstorm.

Rvdixie3
10 hours ago

@4ClassicLady Isn't that normal for Phoenix for this time of year. That's why snowbirds flock there each winter. It sure has been a cold winter in the northern States. So much for global warming.


I just ate a delicious dinner. So much for world hunger.
Pittsburgh is the birthplace of two of my favorite jazz greats, Erroll Garner and the underrated Eddie Jefferson, as well as a host of others including Art Blakey, Ray Brown, the founder of bebop Kenny Clarke and Ahmad Jamal, oh can't forget Roy Eldridge, the city definitely represents.



Still waiting for a multivariate regression equation that does not use attribution studies. Only in applications that allow for ridiculous levels of uncertainty is this statistical methodology used.
Quoting 719. barbamz:


Stephen Mosley: Learn lessons of history for cleaner air

Coal and the Industrial Revolution


Youtube video: Air pollution in a historical perspective
First book about air pollution in London: 1661!


Cities of Smog - the history of air pollution, an excerpt



Sorry, Barb, but those pictures don't look like they were taken in 1661. More like 1680.
Quoting 712. Grothar:

Maybe people are too young to remember or have forgotten why agencies were put in place by the Republican administration in the 1970's.





Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code


That river was a horrid orange color throughout my childhood. Urban legend said if you fell in, your hair would fall out.
Blog ate my comment about the Cuyahoga river being a horrid orange color. Urban legend said that if you fell in, your hair would fall out.
Quoting 725. Grothar:

Sorry, Barb, but those pictures don't look like they were taken in 1661. More like 1680.

Lol, Gro. Got a new word out of the first video resp. the quotation from John Evelyn (Fumifugium: or The Inconvenience of the Aer and Smoak of London Dissipated, 1661): fuliginous

Fuliginous is a word with a dark and dirty past - it derives from "fuligo," the Latin word for "soot." In an early sense (now obsolete), "fuliginous" was used to describe noxious bodily vapors once thought to be produced by organic processes. The "sooty" sense, which English speakers have been using since the early 1620s, can be used to describe everything from dense fogs and malevolent clouds to overworked chimney sweeps. "Fuliginous" can also be used to refer to something dark or dusky, as in Henry James' novel The Ambassadors, in which the character Waymarsh is described as having "dark fuliginous eyes." Source.

- I'm out. Happy blogging and a good night!
Undersea Brine Lake discovered in Gulf of Mexico. See the ripples of the brine under the regular ocean water.

Sheep serving the wolves who serve the goats; not believing in nor seeking for truth. Those who stand against known scientific facts, human good, and all common sense; deserve to see into the future where their children shall reap what is sown now. If we don't stand now against what is happening in Washington we may never get the opportunity to in the future. Huge evil power plays are being made and most Americans can't even look up from their cellphones long enough to glance at the fact America is laying on her death bed.
Quoting 728. barbamz:


Lol, Gro. Got a new word out of the first video resp. the quotation from John Evelyn (Fumifugium: or The Inconvenience of the Aer and Smoak of London Dissipated, 1661): fuliginous

Fuliginous is a word with a dark and dirty past - it derives from "fuligo," the Latin word for "soot." In an early sense (now obsolete), "fuliginous" was used to describe noxious bodily vapors once thought to be produced by organic processes. The "sooty" sense, which English speakers have been using since the early 1620s, can be used to describe everything from dense fogs and malevolent clouds to overworked chimney sweeps. "Fuliginous" can also be used to refer to something dark or dusky, as in Henry James' novel The Ambassadors, in which the character Waymarsh is described as having "dark fuliginous eyes." Source.



Just don't become Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobic. Although in German, that might be difficult :)
Okay folks, this is the type of idiotic garbage we can expect over the next couple of years so let's tear apart this steaming pile of Trump.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
Scott Pruitt is absolutely right.


No, he is absolutely wrong. Physics proves him wrong. An industrial CO2 cutting laser proves him wrong. If you tried to base a scientific paper on his claims, even at grade school levels, you would receive a failing grade because a 5th grade science experiment you can do in your own kitchen proves him wrong.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
All of nature is cyclical.


Wrong. Cyclical patterns can develop in nature, but clearly not all of nature is cyclical.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
Recorded history allows us to view only a small segment of earth's temperature cycle.


Wrong. Paleoclimate studies analyze the tell-tale signs of historical conditions to illuminate historical climate.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
We are seeing the warming segment of the cycle.


Wrong. The current orbital and axial parameters of our planet indicate that we should be cooling. In fact, we were cooling until the industrial revolution.

Furthermore, the speed of the current warming exceeds what would occur due to an upswing in a Milankovich cycle by several orders of magnitude. The temperature changes that take place in such a cycle happen over several thousand years, while the current observed changes have take place over the last 100 years.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
In the 1950's the "experts" warned us that human activity would cause the earth to enter another ice age.


Wrong. A survey of scientific research for this supposed "Cabal Of Cooling" shows that this oft-debunked claim is 100% horse****. The same as now, the vast majority of climate researchers fully supported the theory that human activities were warming the planet.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
They were wrong and today's global warming alarmists are also wrong.


Wrong. Physics doesn't lie. The fact that human activities can lead to a warmer was discovered over 120 years ago. Since then all the evidence and research continues to provide very strong and solid support for that.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:
The motives of some alarmists, such as Al Gore, are suspect because they are positioned to profit from governmental regulations that attempt to influence this naturally occurring cycle.


Wrong. That is conspiratorial BS. Meanwhile, internal research reports and documents from big fossil fuel companies show that not only did they know global warming was a growing threat, but they actively worked to suppress said research in order to keep the money rolling in.

In addition, you really don't want to go down the road of comparing wallets here. Exxon earns more in quarter than the entire federal budget allocation for climate studies. You can make more money as an MBA at a fossil fuel company than a climate scientist holding a Ph.D and years of experience. So climate scientists don't do this for the money.

And you do know that Al Gore is not a climate scientists, correct? He doesn't hold a Ph.D. He doesn't publish peer reviewed climate research articles. You know, things that scientists do.

Quoting 630. PaulPhotog:

Those efforts to influence the cycle will not succeed, and will only cause economic hardship and negatively impact our quality of life.


Wrong. The fundamental changes we could make are already economically viable, and other developed nations (and some under developed ones) that actually have people in charge who can think for more than 140 characters have already gone down that route.

But your selfishness is understandable. We're basically brainwashed from birth to be selfish in this country. Some of us grow out of it though and try to make the world a better place for everyone.
Quoting 731. Grothar:




Just don't become Hippopotomonstrosesquippedaliophobic. Although in German, that might be difficult :)


And if you visit any volcanoes, be careful not to come down with a case of pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis. It's not worth getting that up close and personal with them. :)
Quoting 727. SunnyDaysFla:

Blog ate my comment about the Cuyahoga river being a horrid orange color. Urban legend said that if you fell in, your hair would fall out.


From my childhood, there was a small river that ran by a (then) new Union Carbide plant and eventually wound it's way nearby where I used to live. Nothing grew for 20 yards from the banks, and it would take on the most interesting hues (and smells).

Fortunately, none of the kids in the neighborhood actually tried to do the normal "kid" thing and hop in for a swim. Aside from the creepiness of the dead wildlife (birds, racoons, etc.), the acrid stench of chemicals and death acted as a strong deterrent to getting anywhere close to it (especially on those hot humid summer days...ick).

But on the bright side, it got rid of our local flooding problem. The pollution killed off the beavers so no more beaver dams backing up the river. :P
Quoting 733. Xyrus2000:



And if you visit any volcanoes, be careful not to come down with a case of pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis. It's not worth getting that up close and personal with them. :)


I think I had that once in Hong Kong. :)
Quoting 736. Grothar:



I think I had that once in Hong Kong. :)


They have a cream for that.
.
Bombogenesis, sure, but will Stella undergo blobogenesis? :)

In 2011, Elena Passarello became the first woman to win the "Stella" shouting contest in New Orleans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r-b6BZwfahw
Quoting 732. Xyrus2000:
Okay folks, this is the type of idiotic garbage we can expect over the next couple of years so

Just wait until Disqus goes live........ The cringe will be real.

Look up 638. barbamz
The song a robin sings
Through years of endless springs
The murmur of a brook at eventide
That ripples by a nook where two lovers hide

A great symphonic theme
That's Stella by Starlight and not a dream
My heart and I agree
It's bombogenesis for thee
743. MahFL
Quoting 645. StAugustineFL:



All the nearby PWS's seem to disagree.


I took a nap from 2 pm to 5:45 pm, and when I woke up the temp was 57F, so a big drop in temps. We had bright sunshine for a few hours before the murk came in, and no rain today.
744. MahFL
Quoting 707. Grothar:

'Hell with the lid taken off': The pictures of bygone Pittsburgh and its residents choking under clouds of thick smog

The pea-souper problem was once so bad that clouds of smoke and pollution would block out the midday sun
Photographs from the 1950s show just how badly the U.S. city suffered before laws on coal burning were introduced...


Same thing happened in the UK, The Clean Air Act was introduced in 1956 and reduced the smogs a lot.
In keeping with the blog songs.

Mairzy doats And dozy doats
And liddle lamzy divey
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?

Yes! Mairzy doats And Dozy Doats
And liddle lamzy divey
A kiddley divey too, wouldn't you?
I think many have been almost bullied into believing the warming scenario, hook, line and sinker. A close read of the Paris Accords themselves shows this is more about social justice (maybe not a bad thing) and not about climate. Does any serious person really think that tinkering at the edges with CO2 emissions is going to change the temperature by a single degree, on a single date, at any time in the future?

The response we get is a lot of talk about how horrible heat waves, hurricanes, Nor'easters, cold waves, and melting polar caps might be; not whether the solution is worth the candle.
Quoting 741. Hurricane4Lex:

Quoting 732. Xyrus2000:
Okay folks, this is the type of idiotic garbage we can expect over the next couple of years so

Just wait until Disqus goes live........ The cringe will be real.

Look up 638. barbamz



If that's true, then I hate to say it... but TWC should shut the comment feature completely off. Why ruin the Masters/Hensen thoughtful posts by following them with a string of bot/troll comments? I've really liked visiting here over the last 2 years, but I'll have to see how it goes.
It's snowing here in Chicagoland. The long awaited snow has arrived. We're a day ahead of you folks back East.
I wonder if we'll get an inch or three inches, and will there be plows before morning, or no? It doesn't look like a major event, so peeps will be driving, and getting into accidents because they forgot how to drive in the snow! I'll try to stay home until the streets are cleared.

Quoting 675. Gearsts:


Quoting 676. HurricaneFan:


Lots of spread in the ensembles...we are at the Spring Predictability Barrier time of year. However I do think CFS develops El Nino WAY too fast, showing El Nino building in by April...


Quoting 679. 999Ai2016:


Low confidence there, it would seem. #SPB


yes overall SPB is the issue Don't buy the idea of having an El Nino at all

ok here lets clear up the ensemble spread issue



ok and



models are trending downwards on the El Nino Idea and as time moved forward the models just continued to cool

before


now


the shifts are very slight and slow but trend is downwards at the moment but I do think that once we start heading out of the SPB the shifts will be more larger and trending further and the ensemble spread shrinks
hey on slightly different news

the 53rd WX recon sq sending one of their WC-130J's my way a day before my B-day 26Apr17
Quoting 748. jbgusa:

I think many have been almost bullied into believing the warming scenario, hook, line and sinker. A close read of the Paris Accords themselves shows this is more about social justice (maybe not a bad thing) and not about climate. Does any serious person really think that tinkering at the edges with CO2 emissions is going to change the temperature by a single degree, on a single date, at any time in the future?

The response we get is a lot of talk about how horrible heat waves, hurricanes, Nor'easters, cold waves, and melting polar caps might be; not whether the solution is worth the candle.


It's about science. If somebody has an alternative reason why the earth is warming then they they are expected to back it up with evidence. So far, nobody has been able to do so. If they claim they're being bullied after failing to offer up their evidence and then refuse to acknowledge their failure then whose fault is that?
And it's about climate. Social justice is what we get when we try to reverse the change we've created.

Does any serious person really think that tinkering at the edges with CO2 emissions is going to change the temperature by a single degree, on a single date, at any time in the future?

Who's talking about "tinkering at the edges?" What we're talking about is no less than a sea change. Besides, if we've spent the last 150 years causing global warming, how long do you think it will take to initiate a reversal? This is a multi-generational issue that requires multi-generational time and effort.

The response we get is a lot of talk about how horrible heat waves, hurricanes, Nor'easters, cold waves, and melting polar caps might be; not whether the solution is worth the candle.

We can walk and chew gum! Some response we get is pointing out the problem and how bad it really is (i.e., trying to convince people of the reality), and then some response is working on solutions. Throwing up our hands and saying, "what's the use" gets us nowhere.
Quoting 638. barbamz:

With all this unsubstantiated denial drivel trickling into this comment section I'm becoming more concerned about the upcoming switch to Disqus by WU. Was on Breitbart for the first time where those folks were dancing a jig because of Pruitt's attacks on EPA (disgusting!). And as my old Disqus account is now activated due to aqua's new WU forum I could have commented on that B article right away if I only could have stand that nonsense more than a few seconds, lol. But of course, it will be the other way round as well once WU will have joined Disqus. I'm NOT looking forward neither to swaths of denialist comments contaminating our blog nor to the constant need to defeat them!


I just wonder who has sent in the denialists to the blog suddenly. As definitely a saturation more than the normal, wandering troll. Obvs not the Doc, but it seems it's being targeted. Maybe from the new owners? Elsewhere?
Maybe even the new owners trying to ruin the Doc's blog, and be rid of sanity and science? Where's my tin foil hat??

I'm so sad to think of the blog not being what it is anymore, and all the user blogs and photos being deleted. Just making it a cardboard cut-out, like so many other online blogs, ugh disqus :( Not like they don't have the money to continue it really either. I'll always be happy for the Doc, and no ill will towards him for being with the selling it up and glad he can enjoy some good life for doing so.

I've been so busy with Uni, haven't seen aqua's new forum, can you email me the link? And if anyone else is starting an external thing, please do as well. I hate to lose sight of everyone on here, even if I mainly lurk, everyone's been a big part of my days for the last decade or so. trixtrr@hotmail.co.uk so email me any links for any new set ups or forums etc please.

Otherwise, been very mild here in the N/W UK. We had a good cold spell, but a bust winter for snow really, sadly! Daffodils are in full bloom, and have seen many trees, a lot of cherry trees, in full bloom already.

Hope you're all doing well anyway, all the best to you guys x
Denial is dumb your heart must be numb can you read a sign or is your mind blind faster and faster I put you on blast sir for lies upon lies you feed to the masses who are too busy to get in a dizzy or to care or to notice the pace of this change is measurable and strange the danger is real your kids will sure feel and suffer the price hide your heads close your eyes hope this will change I find this all strange all against it deranged
We have murdered the World for phool's gold.

All thats left is the autopsy and decline.
Looks like elioe's pre-forecast for the Madagascar strait few days ago was pretty good:


Quoting 754. mitthbevnuruodo:

I hate to lose sight of everyone on here, even if I mainly lurk, everyone's been a big part of my days for the last decade or so. trixtrr@hotmail.co.uk so email me any links for any new set ups or forums etc please.

Hi, Mitt. Tried to do so but mail came back as undeliverable :-(
New places are in my last blog and in the blogs of others as well.

More damaging weather down under:
NSW thunderstorms: severe weather, hail and flash flood warnings
Damaging winds are forecast to hit parts of New South Wales on Monday, bringing large hailstones and heavy rain
The Guardian, Australian Associated Press, Monday 13 March 2017 00.43 GMT

And in Spain as well:
Winter is back: All of Spain on alert as storms hit
The Local, 13 March 2017, 10:13 CET 01:00
Every region in Spain (except Melilla) has been issued weather warnings for Monday as the warm weather ended with storms across the peninsula. ...

Elsewhere:
Boaty McBoatface to go on its first Antarctic mission
Robot submarine, named after competition, will collect data from depths of Southern Ocean
The Guardian, Monday 13 March 2017 07.29 GMT
A small yellow robot submarine, called Boaty McBoatface after a competition to name a new polar research ship backfired, is being sent on its first Antarctic mission.
Boaty, which has arguably one of the most famous names in recent maritime history, is a new type of autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), which will be able travel under ice, reach depths of 6,000 metres, and transmit the data it collects to researchers via a radio link.
Its mission will be to investigate water flow and turbulence in the dark depths of the Orkney Passage, a 3.5km deep region of the Southern Ocean. The data it collects will help scientists understand how the ocean is responding to global warming. ...

More see link above.


An artist's impression of Boaty McBoatface in the Antarctic. Photograph: NERC/PA
Patrap,

We're on the Runaway Mine Train, but this ain't Six Flags where you just get a good scare and then the coal car comes back up a gentle slope and eases to a stop at the end.

The ride has just begun, and the bad news is that everyone who said the models were wrong were somewhat correct --- lately, as the experiment continues, we've seen the real world effects and the models move upwards in speed of onset of the worst effects of Anthropogenic Global Heating. The feedbacks are accelerating the process more quickly than originally predicted. What was once a finely tuned ecosystem for human life support has now been given the Milgram treatment by our 'prison guards'.

The main metaphor might need an update, Patrap. The hydra we have is the fifty-headed version favored by Simonides, and it grows three heads for each one cut off(as in Servius' version of the story), but I think an even better metaphor might be the Stymphalian Birds (the sixth labor of Heracles, instead of the second one) and their poisonous dung serving as the analog for our recent trolls and their masters...
Quoting 759. Indpls3:

There is no concrete scientific evidence behind man-made global warming. Yes, climate change has always existed. I see the play on words here and know that when that happens ulterior motives are at work.

The science of measuring temperature is far more complicated than most know. Temperature records dating far back before we began burning fossil fuels show warm spells with no known cause. Then we get cool spells. There are so many different variables that we cannot know at this time what caused them. I think we all agree that gravity exists. No matter where you're at on the surface of the earth, if you drop a marble it's going to fall to the ground. That's true today as it was 1000 years ago. Temperature is not that static. I know this comment is going to get scrutinized but that's OK. Facts remain despite opinions.

We need to get out of politics and back to science.

Yeah the Barrier Reef dies every year.
@759
We are doing science here, and the manufacture of concrete actually does contribute to CO2 output, btw. But I suppose you would say there are too many variables in making concrete to know that for certain about the concrete we made before the advent of digital thermometers. You'd be wrong about that, too.
Good luck! ECMWF, 00z, 42h



Source.


Source.
Quoting 761. cRRKampen:


Yeah the Barrier Reef dies every year.


Scientists race to prevent wipeout of world's coral reefs

There were startling colors here just a year ago, a dazzling array of life beneath the waves. Now this Maldivian reef is dead, killed by the stress of rising ocean temperatures. What's left is a haunting expanse of gray, a scene repeated in reefs across the globe in what has fast become a full-blown ecological catastrophe.

The world has lost roughly half its coral reefs in the last 30 years. Scientists are now scrambling to ensure that at least a fraction of these unique ecosystems survives beyond the next three decades. The health of the planet depends on it: Coral reefs support a quarter of all marine species, as well as half a billion people around the world.

"This isn't something that's going to happen 100 years from now. We're losing them right now," said marine biologist Julia Baum of Canada's University of Victoria. "We're losing them really quickly, much more quickly than I think any of us ever could have imagined."

Even if the world could halt global warming now, scientists still expect that more than 90 percent of corals will die by 2050. Without drastic intervention, we risk losing them all.


Link
765. elioe
Quoting 757. EmsiNasklug:

Looks like elioe's pre-forecast for the Madagascar strait few days ago was pretty good:





Both Euro and GFS have since gone on and off with cyclogenesis. It's as uncertain as before.
Quoting 761. cRRKampen:


Yeah the Barrier Reef dies every year.


Yours ( crrKampen) is as much an opinion as anyone else. You have no facts to disprove man caused climate change. One side is right, one side is wrong. I would rather be on the side of caution.
Good Morning; have to look at the rest of the charts and NWS forecasts more closely this morning before making a more informed comment of the trajectory and timing of the Gulf low. I was expecting the low to already be below Alabama or Florida this morning on the way to the Eastern Seaboard but the charts indicate that it is still off the Coast of Texas and hard to spot on the WV loops...........Perhaps it is really going to speed up over the next 24 hours.

As you can see from the Gulf loop, and very elongated surface vort signature off of Texas, that strong westerly zonal flow is giving the low some trouble consolidating. Don't know how this is going to impact the timing later in the period for the NE.






Surface Vort:
%uFFFD



Here are the WPC forecast panels for the next 48; it has a consolidated low South of Florida tomorrow then bringing it very quickly (in under 24 hours) all the way to the NE.
As you can see from the panel for today at 8:00 am, this model has the low below Louisiana but it is a few hundred miles East of that point; it won't matter as it gets picked up really quickly all the way from Florida to the NE on Tuesday:

Today at 8:00 am:

Forecast valid Monday 12Z

Tuesday:
Forecast valid Tuesday 00Z
Tuesday:

Forecast valid Tuesday 06Z

Tuesday Evening:
Forecast valid Tuesday 12Z

Wednesday:
Forecast valid Wednesday 00Z
And the big picture for today including the jet:





Quoting 766. ohzone:



Yours ( crrKampen) is as much an opinion as anyone else. You have no facts to disprove man caused climate change. One side is right, one side is wrong. I would rather be on the side of caution.

Then you will be on the side of science and reality.
How come I don't believe this?

Link
Study on information avoidance.
And finally the relevant portions from the local Tallahassee NWS Office and WPC as to the timing of the Gulf crossing:

National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
656 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper low embedded in a northern stream longwave trough is seen
clearly on WV imagery this morning over the IA/NE line. The upper
trough will amplify today, covering the entire eastern half of the
country by tonight. As its influences reach the Gulf a weak low will
develop along an already existing baroclinic boundary and move
eastward across the northern Gulf


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017


Things get interesting for the East Coast beginning Monday night. A low
pressure system crossing the Midwest states and Ohio Valley is expected to
phase with another low off the southeast U.S. coast. This will allow for
a strong nor'easter to develop near the coast and cause a late-season
snowstorm from the central Appalachians to New England, including many of
the big cities in the Northeast U.S. Widespread winter storm warnings are
now in effect for heavy snowfall accumulations, with some areas likely
getting in excess of a foot from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New
England. The tricky part of the forecast deals with the rain/snow line
over the Mid-Atlantic region with a tight gradient in accumulations
expected near the greater Washington DC metro area. Closer to the coast
from southern New Jersey to the Carolinas, rain is expected with amounts
in excess of an inch likely.
That large blue area on the current WV loop stretching all the way from Great Lakes down to the NW  corner of Tennessee, and all headed East, is snow and the rest of the line to the South, dipping into Arkansas, is a rain band:


Cannot keep iListing climate revisionists here.
I will systematically call them 'thugs', 'criminals' et c henceforth: people who I hold responsible for killing my planet.

Moderation will choose who to ban.
I will conclude according to such choice.
Climate change, in terms of the actual physics and what it happening with global warming is a fact. One of the political tragedies of this fact is that many people, and politicians, assume that supporters of climate change and mitigation are leftists/liberals and that most deniers of climate change are conservatives. Both sides are wrong; it affects all sides regardless of your personal or political beliefs. The biggest problem is that fossil fuel interests across the globe are unwilling to face reality when the profit margins remain so large; the academics are right on this one...........Just Sayin.

A group of prominent Republicans just launched a longshot bid for a carbon tax

Former Secretary of State James Baker led a group of senior Republican statesmen today in rolling out a plan for using a carbon tax to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The four-pillar proposal calls for a revenue-neutral carbon tax starting at $40 per ton.Ahead of a White House meeting with Gary Cohn, the former Wall Street executive who is President Trump's economic adviser, Baker acknowledged in a Washington press briefing that his Climate Leadership Council faces an "uphill slog," despite what he framed as the proposal's populist appeal.In addition to Baker and Feldstein, other council members are George Shultz, secretary of State under Reagan; Henry Paulson, President George W. Bush's Treasury secretary; and N. Gregory Mankiw, who chaired Bush's Council of Economic Advisers. The group also includes Thomas Stephenson, a partner at venture capital firm Sequoia Capital; Rob Walton, former chairman of the board at Wal-Mart Stores Inc.; and Ted Halstead, the council's founder.

Quoting 759. Indpls3:



Yet another vacuous denialist post making sweeping statements and offering no evidence to support those claims. I'm starting to see a pattern here.

Climatologists by contrast support their claims with thousands of reputedly published, peer-reviewed papers, observations, and careful scrutiny. Hmm...who to believe? lol
Welcome to Doom Con 6.....it's the end of the world out there folks.
Quoting 753. JimSpriggs:



It's about science. If somebody has an alternative reason why the earth is warming then they they are expected to back it up with evidence. So far, nobody has been able to do so. If they claim they're being bullied after failing to offer up their evidence and then refuse to acknowledge their failure then whose fault is that?
And it's about climate. Social justice is what we get when we try to reverse the change we've created.

Does any serious person really think that tinkering at the edges with CO2 emissions is going to change the temperature by a single degree, on a single date, at any time in the future?

Who's talking about "tinkering at the edges?" What we're talking about is no less than a sea change. Besides, if we've spent the last 150 years causing global warming, how long do you think it will take to initiate a reversal? This is a multi-generational issue that requires multi-generational time and effort.

The response we get is a lot of talk about how horrible heat waves, hurricanes, Nor'easters, cold waves, and melting polar caps might be; not whether the solution is worth the candle.

We can walk and chew gum! Some response we get is pointing out the problem and how bad it really is (i.e., trying to convince people of the reality), and then some response is working on solutions. Throwing up our hands and saying, "what's the use" gets us nowhere.
As far as other theories, how about natural cycles? Have we had Ice Ages and interglacials before? Didn't some of those cycles, such as Younger Dryas, come on fast?
Quoting 774. WU_1416811:

The Climate Change controversy was highjacked by left-wing Progressives and academics. The "science" of climate change became an issue when then President Obama dictated that any scientist or academic that denied climate change would lose federal funding. Ah yes, science the Chicago way. Agree with my philosophy or I'll kill your funding and ruin your reputation. Obama's political correctness killed real climate change science and the scientists and academics that went along are co-conspirators.

My father always said, "When you lie down with pigs, you will smell like pigs." Obama was a pig and since you laid with him, guess what?

Just sayin'.

#MAGA




That's nothing. You can't a thin dime if you want to scientifically investigate phrenology! Fascists!

/sarcasm
Quoting 775. cRRKampen:

Cannot keep iListing climate revisionists here.
I will systematically call them 'thugs', 'criminals' et c henceforth: people who I hold responsible for killing my planet.

Moderation will choose who to ban.
I will conclude according to such choice.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to be patient with the substance-free conspiracy-theory posts of the denialists.

Gift of the #MAGA?
From The Age:

I saw the Great Barrier Reef die last weekend, and I wept

This is not a crime against humanity. This is a crime by humanity. We have sentenced to death the largest living structure on the planet: the Great Barrier Reef. The sentence is being carried out slowly and painfully before our eyes.

[...]

The reef last weekend was a palpable contrast to the vibrant colours I saw there two years ago. And what a palpable contrast to the first time I dived on the reef in 1985 with my then 14-year-old daughter, who had just got her diving certificate. Alas, this is now no longer about the legacy we hand to our children and grandchildren. At this rate, the reef will die in the lifetime of us grandparents.


Iridescent pinks and blues are a precursor to bleaching. Photo: Crispin Hull

There was no pleasure going underwater last weekend. I was beyond even shock or anger. Tears welled up in my diving mask. So much bleaching, so little healthy surviving coral. It made me want to cry.

What have we done? The rest is in the pictures: each 1000 words of shameful death warrant.

Click here to read full article.







Quoting 771. Pipejazz:

[Link to Study on information avoidance.]

The important thing to remember when reading something like this is to remember that although we are all subject to information avoidance tendencies, some of us actively attempt to counteract that tendency within ourselves. Some of us are not happy to live in 'filter bubbles' and instead we make the efforts required to read widely and to converse frequently with those who have differing viewpoints from our own.

There are also different kinds of information 'avoidance', particularly in science, in my opinion. Many are simply unable to comprehend a lot of science, because they do not have the proper training or do not have the capacity to absorb the training that is necessary to understand it. Most people avoid reading things that they do not understand, and most who even try are totally baffled and lost by what they see. That is decidedly different than "This candidate lied but that one didn't" type of information avoidance.

Political and casual 'filter bubbles' are created not only by people themselves, but they are now also created for them by algorithms designed to capture and hold their attention purely for the purpose of making a profit off of them. Do an internet search around the idea of 'attention economy' and you will find multiple references, also see closely related 'surveillance capitalism', and, of course 'filter bubble'.

It is also very important to note that the practice of science requires reading and analyzing the opinions of those whose ideas differ from your own. This is not true of our random anti-science drive-by political trolls operating outside their own capacity to understand the science.
Quoting 782. Misanthroptimist:


"Smooth brain" also works, imo. It is becoming increasingly difficult to be patient with the substance-free conspiracy-theory posts of the denialists.

Gift of the #MAGA?

Actually, Erdogan...
Fascism, you see.
Blizzard in the NE will add to anti-climate beliefs...."it's snowing 1-2 ft of snow in middle of March, where's the warming world you experts keep talking about."

You do know that is what the thinking will be? Gonna be hard to convince.
The Gulf low looks like it is finally on the move at a brisk pace but consolidating to the SE of Brownsville, TX:


Quoting 742. petrichor:

The song a robin sings
Through years of endless springs
The murmur of a brook at eventide
That ripples by a nook where two lovers hide

A great symphonic theme
That's Stella by Starlight and not a dream
My heart and I agree
It's bombogenesis for thee


10/10 poem
Quoting 780. jbgusa:

As far as other theories, how about natural cycles? Have we had Ice Ages and interglacials before? Didn't some of those cycles, such as Younger Dryas, come on fast?

The only cycle I know coming fast is this one:

Florida’s New ‘Hurricane Hunter’ Base on Schedule for Storm Season
March 9, 2017
Officials say they’re on schedule to open the new home base for the U.S. government’s “hurricane hunter” aircraft before the Atlantic hurricane season begins.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s planes are specially equipped to collect forecasting data as they fly in and around tropical storms and hurricanes. The agency’s aircraft are scheduled to move May 1 to Lakeland Linder Regional Airport in Lakeland, Fla., from MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa.
Airport Manager Gene Conrad told The Ledger that up to 80 workers are on site daily rebuilding a hanger to accommodate the large aircraft.
The project also includes a science lab, an operational hub and a maintenance shop. Airport Business Manager John Von Preysing said NOAA’s move brings 110 “highly technical” jobs to the city.
Hurricane season starts June 1.
Copyright 2017 Associated Press
That Lakeland relocation for the NOAA Hunters is pretty cool; gives people along the I-4 corridor between Lakeland and Tampa a better chance of seeing their planes fly out/overhead when headed towards or from the Gulf.
Quoting 780. jbgusa:

As far as other theories, how about natural cycles? Have we had Ice Ages and interglacials before? Didn't some of those cycles, such as Younger Dryas, come on fast?

Gee, I wonder if climatologists even thought to look at such things to explain the current warming? I'm gonna bet that they did. In fact, I know they did. "Cycles" aren't the reason for the current warming. We are. That is what the best available shows, beyond all but a perverse doubt.

Here is the updated CIMMS vort chart for 8:00 am; yup, the low is consolidating due East of Brownsville in the Western Gulf for a quick pass underneath and across Florida over the next 18 hours or so:



My senators and representative, John Boozman, Tom Cotton, and Rick Crawford (all R-Arkansas) respectively, have all written to say that they support ALL energy development, industry created jobs, etc. Crawford, notably, came from Monsanto. No, none of them will do jack squat to help the EPA or environment. Our state went from being "The Natural State" to being the "Natural Gas State" under democratic leadership. It's headed even further downhill under the Rs.
Quoting 780. jbgusa
"As far as other theories, how about natural cycles? Have we had Ice Ages and interglacials before? Didn't some of those cycles, such as Younger Dryas, come on fast?"

If you'd like to have an intelligent conversation, please at least read the wikipedia entry on the Younger Dryas event and tell us how you think that explains the current heating. We'd be happy to discuss your theories if you have any.
Quoting 766. ohzone:



Yours ( crrKampen) is as much an opinion as anyone else. You have no facts to disprove man caused climate change. One side is right, one side is wrong. I would rather be on the side of caution.
I think you missed the (implicit) snark tag.
Quoting 794. Misanthroptimist:


Gee, I wonder if climatologists even thought to look at such things to explain the current warming? I'm gonna bet that they did. In fact, I know they did. "Cycles" aren't the reason for the current warming. We are. That is what the best available shows, beyond all but a perverse doubt.


Actually, Mann's hockey stick tried to pretend the Medieval Warm Period did not exist.
wiki is not a good source of stone hard info. remember its the reader who creates the information. waiting on the early bird csu and others numbers for our hurricane season.
Quoting 799. AGWcreationists:

Actually, Mann's hockey stick tried to pretend the Medieval Warm Period did not exist.

Actually, you are just another criminal, killing the coral.
Quoting 325. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I knew that we could always count on you when a less than normal cold event happens with the local weather. Should I take it to be that this is your only purpose here, since we hear from you less and less each year?


I do not have much spare time to expend on trivial pursuits as of late, but it is interesting to prod
the group think bubble you espouse when the "settled science don't make sense"

“In questions of science, the authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual.”
- Galileo Galilei

“It is as fatal as it is cowardly to blink facts because they are not to our taste.”
- John Tyndall

“I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept even the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have delighted in explaining to colleagues, which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabric of their lives.”
-Tolstoy

“You can get into a habit of thought in which you enjoy making fun of all those other people who don’t see things as clearly as you do. We have to guard carefully against it.”
- Carl Sagan, 1987 CSICOP meeting

And for PatR.


“Man’s greatest asset is the unsettled mind.”
- Isaac Asimov
I'll put my carbon footprint up against yours any day of the week.
778. Misanthroptimist
Quoting 778. Misanthroptimist:


Yet another vacuous denialist post making sweeping statements and offering no evidence to support those claims. I'm starting to see a pattern here.

Climatologists by contrast support their claims with thousands of reputedly published, peer-reviewed papers, observations, and careful scrutiny. Hmm...who to believe? lol


I am so sorry that you do not understand the science. Perhaps a better education on the subject will help you to comprehend. Although I cannot teach you here.

There are thousands of scientists that have looked at the data and have said that there is no evidence of man-made global warming. Yes, I said thousands.

Since there are thousands of scientist that say there is evidence to support man-made global warming and thousands who say there is no evidence to support man-made global warming means that the subject is not closed. The science is not settled. Further research is required to come to a conclusion. That's how science works.

It's up to folks like you to look at all the data and not just people who are either environmentalists with a political agenda or those who believe the earth is flat because someone said it was. There is nothing more I can say.

Believe what you wish but I'm sticking with the science. Enjoy your day and remember, walk or ride your bike.
Energy and Environment
EPA environmental justice leader resigns, amid White House plans to dismantle program
Brady Dennis March 9, 2017
Mustafa Ali, a senior adviser and assistant associate administrator for environmental justice, has served more than two decades at the agency, working to ease the burden of air and water pollution in hundreds of poor, minority communities nationwide. He helped found the EPA’s environmental justice office during the early 1990s and became a key adviser to agency administrators under Republican and Democratic presidents.

Hired on during the Clinton Regime,
here are the 2 examples given in the Post article of accomplishments over 24 years.

Ali pressed for President Obama to issue a 2013 executive order that improved chemical plant safety, Roberts noted, and served as a crucial intermediary between the town of Mossville, La., and the company building a major plant nearby.

From Executive order 13650

https://www.osha.gov/chemicalexecutiveorder/EO_Pr ogressUpdate022014.pdf

These options were released on January 3, 2014, to provide a starting point for
additional stakeholder discussion. The stakeholder discussion and comment period, which continues
through March 31, 2014, is a critical step in evaluating the feasibility and effectiveness of these options.
Feedback on these options will inform a plan for implementing improvements to chemical risk management.
2015 provided this tepid update:
An Action Plan that does everything but nothing:
Link

Through the analysis of the current operating
environment, existing regulatory programs and
stakeholder feedback, a consolidated Federal
Action Plan was created to address five elements:
• Strengthening community planning and
preparedness
• Enhancing Federal operational coordination
• Improving data management
• Modernizing policies and regulations
• Incorporating stakeholder feedback and
developing best practices

Ali also helped shape one of the last major EPA initiatives under the Obama administration — an “EJ 2020 Action Agenda” that would direct more enforcement resources to pollution-affected communities, focus on eliminating disparities in drinking water and air quality around the country and consider environmental justice issues in the agency’s rulemaking and permitting approaches. There have been few indications that the new administration intends to follow through on that plan.

Another go nowhere scheme, good bye!


Link

Meanwhile, during the rein of Gina McCarthy, Lisa Jackson, and Ali we had several disasters:

Navajos Demand Justice After EPA Polluted Their Water
The government of the Navajo Nation filed a claim against the federal government recently asking for $160 million, citing damages relating to the 2015 Gold King Mine disaster perpetrated by the very federal agency charged with keeping American Indian water safe from pollution.
Read more:
Link

Big failures, small successes mark Obama's environmental record
DuetscheWelle
Author: Michael Knigge
the biggest oil spill in history wreaked havoc on the marine environment in the Gulf of Mexico. But after a government-mandated moratorium on drilling that ended a year ago, it has been basically back to business as usual for the petroleum industry in the Gulf and elsewhere.
In year three of the Obama administration, the biggest nuclear accident since the Chernobyl catastrophe of 1986 shocked Japan and the world. The string of nuclear meltdowns in Fukushima caused a global debate about the safety of nuclear energy and led to Japan ditching plans to step up its use of nuclear power and Germany to phase out nuclear power entirely.
Meanwhile in the US, utility giant Southern Company is on track to get permission to build two new nuclear reactors at its plant in Georgia. According to media reports, the company had already received the green light for limited construction in August and hopes to get final permission at the end of the year.

Link

So what did Ali provide the US taxpayer for the past 24 years? Not much. Consolation, we should back charge him for failing to do his job. However, most likely, we taxpayers can thank our lucky stars he resigned.
Quoting 802. iceagecoming:

“You can get into a habit of thought in which you enjoy making fun of all those other people who don’t see things as clearly as you do. We have to guard carefully against it.”
- Carl Sagan, 1987 CSICOP meeting
No, see, it's not that we enjoy "making fun of" people who are unable to see what's happening; it's that we enjoy ridiculing those who are perfectly capable of seeing it, but pretend they can't. In fact, calling them out isn't just our right, but our duty.

You can see the difference, can't you?
I'm all about giving people the benefit of a doubt. To all the people on here that don't think anthropogenic climate change is real, I would like to open constructive dialogue with you.

Please list which scientific facts you require knowledge of in order to believe in anthropogenic climate change.
Quoting 799. AGWcreationists:

Actually, Mann's hockey stick tried to pretend the Medieval Warm Period did not exist.

Actually, you are wrong. MBH98 has been validated by several subsequent temperature reconstructions. Reconstructions using different methods provide further evidence that Mann's hockey stick is correct. It's warmer than it has been for many millennia, probably since before humans evolved.







It should be noted that those graphs end ten or more years before now. We've warmed a bit more since then. MBH98 while not perfect, was certainly correct on the whole.

Now, since you have become acquainted with the facts, you'll change your opinion to match the evidence, right? Right?
Quoting 804. Indpls3:



Thanks for your well wishes. I can only hope that one day you'll understand that science isn't done by vacuous opinion but is a process relying on fact and observation.

Your claims are nonsense -up to and including bicycles. (Blew out a knee, no bikey for me. Need vroom-vroom...or I can walk.)

Now, since you have become acquainted with the facts, you'll change your opinion to match the evidence, right? Right?
Well, considering three of the plots you posted do not go back to the Medieval Warm period, and the other shows a distinct dropoff after 1400 AD, I stand unconvinced.
811. raylo
If you parse Pruitt's statement it is impossible to reconcile the 2 key pieces. If it is indeed challenging to measure the precise impact of human generated CO2 on the climate how does it make sense for him to make a definitive conclusion that it isn't a primary contributor? The reasonable position would be that more measurement and science is needed, not less, as well as beginning mitigative actions. Instead we get a blatant and obvious denial of science as he does the fossil fuel industry's bidding.

“I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do" and "I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.”
Quoting 803. AGWcreationists:

I'll put my carbon footprint up against yours any day of the week.

I've used six gallons of gasoline since August. Whatchoo got?

(Don't really care. Just blown away by how little driving I've done recently.)
Quoting 802. iceagecoming:



What would anti-science people do without out of context quotes? Anti-Big Banger, anti-Evolutioners, anti-Climate Changers would be nearly out of business.

Quoting 800. islander101010:
"wiki is not a good source of stone hard info."

Yup, but it's at least a starting place to begin a conversation with someone who thinks the Younger Dryas explains anything at all about the current Anthropogenic Global Heating Calamity. If anyone can find anything in the wiki entry and make a coherent argument based on it that they think explains anything about the current topic, I'll reply - that's what I said. I did not say that the wikipedia is an authoritative source on paleoclimatology. For that matter, the Encyclopaedia Britannica is not an authoritative source on paleoclimatology either, but if the entry for the Younger Dryas event there can be used to explain the current Anthropogenic Heating Calamity, I'll respond to that also.
Quoting 111. daddyjames:



Actually there is a biological basis to it. Regardless of political affiliation, there are differences in the regions of the brain that are activated by the same stimulus (information) between those that consider themselves as conservative versus those that consider themselves to be liberal. Now whether this is hard-wired (a result of genetics) or environmental (the result of experience) or both (most likely) remains to be determined.
it is pretty fascinating research..
Link
Study on information avoidance.
Quoting 804. Indpls3:

There are thousands of scientists that have looked at the data and have said that there is no evidence of man-made global warming. Yes, I said thousands.
Ow, wow. Thousands, you say? Gee, that sounds like a whole lot. In fact, it's so many that I'm afraid a lot of us are going to need a list of names and areas of expertise before we believe what you say. We look forward to seeing it right away. Thanks!
Quoting 807. pipelines:

I'm all about giving people the benefit of a doubt. To all the people on here that don't think anthropogenic climate change is real, I would like to open constructive dialogue with you.

Please list which scientific facts you require knowledge of in order to believe in anthropogenic climate change.

That's a very good and fair question. I don't expect it to be answered in the same manner, but I can be surprised.
Quoting 811. raylo:

If you parse Pruitt's statement it is impossible to reconcile the 2 key pieces. If it is indeed challenging to measure the precise impact of human generated CO2 on the climate how does it make sense for him to make a definitive conclusion that it isn't a primary contributor? The reasonable position would be that more measurement and science is needed, not less, as well as beginning mitigative actions. Instead we get a blatant and obvious denial of science as he does the fossil fuel industry's bidding.

“I think that measuring with precision human activity on the climate is something very challenging to do" and "I would not agree that it’s a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.”
Self-conflicting statements are a hallmark of the current regime. You know: "I can barely remember my meetings with the Russian ambassador or what we talked about, but I'm absolutely 100% positive that we never discussed the election."
Quoting 812. Misanthroptimist:


I've used six gallons of gasoline since August. Whatchoo got?

(Don't really care. Just blown away by how little driving I've done recently.)
I don't even own a car. Walk to the grocery store and gym.
Instead of bloviating incessantly about a 1-degree temp hike over 200 years, why not repair your technically challenged, increasingly clunky, and error-riddled WU website? And while you're at it, how about restoring the robust WU photo community that stood for years as the only legitimate reason to visit that same website?
Quoting 810. AGWcreationists:


Now, since you have become acquainted with the facts, you'll change your opinion to match the evidence, right? Right?
Well, considering three of the plots you posted do not go back to the Medieval Warm period, and the other shows a distinct dropoff after 1400 AD, I stand unconvinced.

The MWP is generally considered to have occurred from 950AD to 1250AD. So, it is adequately covered in two of the graphs provided.

But you are evading. Your point wasn't about the MWP. Your point was that Mann was unreliable. You merely used the MWP as an example. Those two graphs refute that assertion. The other three only further demonstrate that MBH98 is in good accord with other paleoclimate studies, thus refuting your larger assertion that Mann was unreliable.

IOW, all of your assertions are refuted in those graphs, different graphs refuting different ideas. Thought is a bit of a process.
Quoting 816. Neapolitan:

Ow, wow. Thousands, you say? Gee, that sounds like a whole lot. In fact, it's so many that I'm afraid a lot of us are going to need a list of names and areas of expertise before we believe what you say. We look forward to seeing it right away. Thanks!

I like it. ;^D
When the new format goes live looking like it will be war against the truth here. Now WU will more represent the struggle we see in real life. The battle to save our planet is real and those out to destroy it are just as real too. We will stand. We will back truth with vigor. For a long time we've been an oasis for those looking for truth and those sharing truth on AGW. It's been a fun ride. Now we go to war with big corporate money shills and those so politically bent that they don't care what the truth is. They won't even look. We won't be overcome by evil here. We will overcome evil with good, truth, and fearlessness.
Quoting 819. AGWcreationists:

I don't even own a car. Walk to the grocery store and gym.

Do you have to be there in 26 minutes? (Sorry, couldn't resist.)

But that actually tells us very little about your carbon footprint. You're probably in reasonably good shape, though. That's worth something in this day and age.
Quoting 823. DeepSeaRising:

When the new format goes live looking like it will be war against the truth here. Now WU will more represent the struggle we see in real life. The battle to save our planet is real and those out to destroy it are just as real too. We will stand. We will back truth with vigor. For a long time we've been an oasis for those looking for truth and those sharing truth on AGW. It's been a fun ride. Now we go to war with big corporate money shills and those so politically bent that they don't care what the truth is. They won't even look. We won't be overcome by evil here. We will overcome evil with good, truth, and fearlessness.

First the good news: The planet will survive our sustained attack, scarred but functional as ever.

The bad news: In a very few decades there will be substantially fewer humans alive than there are now. Further, our civilization will be no more. No telling how much or how little technology and knowledge we'll hold onto, could go either way depending on a bunch of semi-random factors. My advice (and my actions of the last several years) is to begin preparing for the collapse. It won't, imo, be Doomsday in all likelihood. It will be a long, slow decline punctuated by the occasional steep drop...until one day we'll look around amazed at how much is gone.
@820 NoleDawg

LOL, so that's how it rolls, eh? Nice try, but there are many better rhetorical tactics to try than "attacking the messenger instead of engaging the message"! That was sort of like a kindergartner losing the argument and saying, "Oh yeah? Well your mother wears army boots." LOLOL!
@AGWcreationists

From SkS:


Figure 1: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005) shown in blue, Instrumental Temperatures from NASA shown in Red.
Quoting 827. Xandra:

@AGWcreationists

From SkS:


Figure 1: Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005) shown in blue, Instrumental Temperatures from NASA shown in Red.

That's the one I was looking for. Thanks for that, X!
829. bwi
I used to be polite with climate change deniers. Lots were young; many were from very religious households that were suspicious of science.

But now to learn that so much of the anti-science propaganda is being sponsored and pushed by Putin's Russian intelligence operations, in league with U.S. and European right-wing media and political parties....

I'm sorry, but it's not homegrown ignorance any more. It's an information war with a national enemy who means the western world no good at all.

And while some people are helpless in the face of relentless propaganda, smart people who are capable of learning facts have no excuse.

I don't want Russian-style government in the U.S. and I don't support the Russian petrochemical kleptocracy.

As a U.S. citizen, I find climate science denial -- at least among the smart and capable -- is rapidly becoming more like treason than just old-fashioned willful and heartless obstinance.
Quoting 748. jbgusa:

I think many have been almost bullied into believing the warming scenario, hook, line and sinker.


I've heard climate scientists will stuff you in your locker and put a "kick me" sign on your back. Arrhenius start it back in the 1890's by pushing people down in hallways and knocking books out of their arms if they didn't believe his theories.

Are you for real?

Quoting 748. jbgusa:
A close read of the Paris Accords themselves shows this is more about social justice (maybe not a bad thing) and not about climate.


Uh...what? Seriously, what the hell are you talking about? Where is the "social justice" you mention?

Quoting 748. jbgusa:
Does any serious person really think that tinkering at the edges with CO2 emissions is going to change the temperature by a single degree, on a single date, at any time in the future?


Tinkering at the edges? The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased 46% since pre-industrial times. That isn't "tinkering". That's changing the fundamental composition of the Earth's atmosphere. And yes, the additional forcing is adding and accumulating energy to the climate system. Unless you think thermodynamics somehow don't apply to planetary climate systems, the end result is a warmer world.

And before you start claiming that "it's so tiny it how can it possibly affect anything", take a look at the ozone layer. It makes up a much smaller fraction of the atmosphere than CO2, yet without it Earth with be a sterilized barren ball of rock.


Quoting 748. jbgusa:


The response we get is a lot of talk about how horrible heat waves, hurricanes, Nor'easters, cold waves, and melting polar caps might be; not whether the solution is worth the candle.


There's been plenty of discussion on the steps to take to deal with global warming. The DoD, among other government and state agencies, have been incorporating climate data for some time to work out long term contingency plans, especially places like NY and Miami which have already been dealing with rising sea levels.

At this point reversal or stopping is the warming is impossible. It's more about reducing the amount of warming and adaptation strategies.

And BTW, just because you don't "hear" anything doesn't mean nothing is being done or being discussed. If you don't make an effort to stay on top of things or actually work in organizations dealing with this then your unlikely to have much exposure as to what is going on.
I woke up to see our Winter Storm Watch downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory... well that's depressing...

&@$# this winter. :(
Quoting 829. bwi:

I used to be polite with climate change deniers. Lots were young; many were from very religious households that were suspicious of science.

But now to learn that so much of the anti-science propaganda is being sponsored and pushed by Putin's Russian intelligence operations, in league with U.S. and European right-wing media and political parties....

I'm sorry, but it's not homegrown ignorance any more. It's an information war with a national enemy who means the western world no good at all.

And while some people are helpless in the face of relentless propaganda, smart people who are capable of learning facts have no excuse.

I don't want Russian-style government in the U.S. and I don't support the Russian petrochemical kleptocracy.

As a U.S. citizen, I find climate science denial -- at least among the smart and capable -- is rapidly becoming more like treason than just old-fashioned willful and heartless obstinance.


Catching up but not quite there yet.
Still: +1.
Very easy to see why the low in the Gulf is having such a tough time (forecast to remain weak across the Gulf); the shear over that region is just killing any chances of it deepening there: it looked good an hour ago and getting sheared apart again at present:






Hello everyone. I've lurked here since before Katrina.

I feel like I know a lot of you. I just wanted to take a moment to tell you all -- Dr. Masters, Bob Henson and posters and commenters just how valuable your information and discussions have been to me. I've looked to this site and all of you to fill in the gaps between officially released information and the real-life story of figuring things out. I've told so many over the years to watch this site in a weather emergency. This is the cutting edge. Not only have I learned a great deal about meteorology, but I've also been witness to a beautiful community that's shaped and re-shaped itself over the years. I'm shy. It wasn't about voyeurism.

I believe this website has always represented in a minute but powerful way the best of our democracy. People express opinions, offer information, confide in each other, share meaningful events and common concerns. To me it best represents the balance between self-interest and community and could be a model for a better world. I've looked to certain people for stabilizing the motion of discussions and I've watched people grow and learn and trust. I will sorely miss this open forum and the people who have participated over the years.

It's a rare place to come to at any hour of the day or night ;) As the comments have expanded to include more of a international discussion, this site has offered something rarer still - the opportunity for comparing notes anecdotally as well as scientifically and a forum for hearing about each other's corners of the world in this time of rapid change.

This discussion somehow needs to be maintained.

Thank you all for what you've contributed and your willingness to share over these years.

Your admirer - now no longer secret.
Meteorologists refute EPA head on climate change
The Hill, By Timothy Cama - 03/13/17 10:48 AM EDT
The nation’s top organization for meteorology is refuting Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Scott Pruitt’s recent comments on the role of carbon dioxide in climate change.
Pruitt questioned mainstream climate science last week, saying in a CNBC interview, “I would not agree that [carbon dioxide is] a primary contributor to the global warming that we see.”
The American Meteorological Society wrote a letter to Pruitt Monday saying he is wrong.
“In reality, the world’s seven billion people are causing climate to change and our emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are the primary cause,” the group’s executive director, Keith Seitter, wrote in the letter.
“This is a conclusion based on the comprehensive assessment of scientific evidence. It is based on multiple independent lines of evidence that have been affirmed by thousands of independent scientists and numerous scientific institutions around the world,” Seitter said. “We are not familiar with any scientific institution with relevant subject matter expertise that has reached a different conclusion.”
He added that “mischaracterizing the science” is not a good place to start in constructive policy debates surrounding climate, and offered his organization’s assistance in helping Pruitt to understand the data. ...


Whole letter here: https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/a ms-formal-letters-of-support/letter-to-epa-adminis trator-pruitt-on-climate-change/
Quoting 815. Pipejazz:

Link
Study on information avoidance.


Pipejazz - nice to see you! Yes, probably driven bologically as well. The reward centers of the brain are extremely powerful in dictating everyday behavior.

Addendum: Just put a bowl of Dove Dark Chocolates in front of me and see what happens.
Quoting 831. Articuno:

I woke up to see our Winter Storm Watch downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory... well that's depressing...

&@$# this winter. :(


Where are you?
And the low over the mid-west continues to deepen as it dives down into Kansas; also looking like Nashville is going to get some more snow today based on the Winter mosaic radar loops:






Quoting 837. ChiThom:



Where are you?
You know that's an upgrade right.
Quoting 831. Articuno:

I woke up to see our Winter Storm Watch downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory... well that's depressing...

&@$# this winter. :(
Dude that's an upgrade. It's goes watch, advisory, and then warning.
Quoting 816. Neapolitan:

Ow, wow. Thousands, you say? Gee, that sounds like a whole lot. In fact, it's so many that I'm afraid a lot of us are going to need a list of names and areas of expertise before we believe what you say. We look forward to seeing it right away. Thanks!


I get tired of Nea's Climate Change mantra when there are storms to track. But when the blog topic is an 85mph four seamer...Right. Down. Broadway.....He doesn't miss. He's hitting dingers, and I'm in awe.
Quoting 834. awedbynature:


Some of the most intelligent people are also shy.
One of the endearing human tendencies is to "doubt oneself".
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR UPPER MIDWEST TO NORTHEAST WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM CDT MON MAR 13 2017


Excerpt:

AT 900 AM CDT...A SURFACE LOW WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1015
MB...29.97 INCHES...WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS...MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED
SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
STRETCHING TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. THERE IS ALSO AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.
I just had a vision of Trump and the administration having a ribbon cutting celebration with giant scissors cutting a EPA logo in half, stating the dismantling of the EPA is official....and everybody is gathered around smiling and the media going nuts.
Quoting 845. RitaEvac:


Sounds like a nightmare!
Quoting 841. Andrebrooks:

Dude that's an upgrade. It's goes watch, advisory, and then warning.


They're calling for less snow. Advisory tends to mean less snow than a watch.
Quoting 847. Articuno:



New York? Virginia? Maine?
Quoting 808. Misanthroptimist:


Actually, you are wrong. MBH98 has been validated by several subsequent temperature reconstructions. Reconstructions using different methods provide further evidence that Mann's hockey stick is correct. It's warmer than it has been for many millennia, probably since before humans evolved.







It should be noted that those graphs end ten or more years before now. We've warmed a bit more since then. MBH98 while not perfect, was certainly correct on the whole.

Now, since you have become acquainted with the facts, you'll change your opinion to match the evidence, right? Right?



Does this data go back further than 500-1000 years? Possibly something in the range of 50,000-100,000 years?
Quoting 841. Andrebrooks:

Dude that's an upgrade. It's goes watch, advisory, and then warning.


No, there was a Winter Storm Watch. That means a Winter Storm Warning could be issued for the storm.
But the National Weather Service decided to go with a Winter Weather Advisory because they must believe the storm will not be as strong as first thought.

If the NWS believed the storm was going to be strong, the Winter Storm Watch would have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning.

The NWS doesn't usually go from a Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Weather Advisory and then to a Winter Storm Warning.
Quoting 834. awedbynature:

Hello everyone. I've lurked here since before Katrina.

I feel like I know a lot of you. I just wanted to take a moment to tell you all -- Dr. Masters, Bob Henson and posters and commenters just how valuable your information and discussions have been to me. I've looked to this site and all of you to fill in the gaps between officially released information and the real-life story of figuring things out. I've told so many over the years to watch this site in a weather emergency. This is the cutting edge. Not only have I learned a great deal about meteorology, but I've also been witness to a beautiful community that's shaped and re-shaped itself over the years. I'm shy. It wasn't about voyeurism.

I believe this website has always represented in a minute but powerful way the best of our democracy. People express opinions, offer information, confide in each other, share meaningful events and common concerns. To me it best represents the balance between self-interest and community and could be a model for a better world. I've looked to certain people for stabilizing the motion of discussions and I've watched people grow and learn and trust. I will sorely miss this open forum and the people who have participated over the years.

It's a rare place to come to at any hour of the day or night ;) As the comments have expanded to include more of a international discussion, this site has offered something rarer still - the opportunity for comparing notes anecdotally as well as scientifically and a forum for hearing about each other's corners of the world in this time of rapid change.

This discussion somehow needs to be maintained.

Thank you all for what you've contributed and your willingness to share over these years.

Your admirer - now no longer secret.


Thanks for finally joining in!
Issuing Office: New York City
Source: National.Weather.Service

4:18am EDT, Mon Mar 13

... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS... METROPOLITAN NEW YORK CITY AND NEW JERSEY, WESTERN LONG ISLAND, SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER, SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN, NORTHERN MIDDLESEX, AND NORTHERN NEW LONDON COUNTIES. * HAZARD TYPES... HEAVY SNOW AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL AREAS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... 12 TO 20 INCHES... HIGHEST AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND WEST. * SNOWFALL RATES... 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING... LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS... DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SEVERAL ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT. * WINDS... NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 TO 55 MPH ON TUESDAY. HIGHEST WINDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS. * TEMPERATURES... IN THE UPPER 20S. * VISIBILITIES... ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS... MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED... STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. &&
Quoting 847. Articuno:



They're calling for less snow. Advisory tends to mean less snow than a watch.


Correct, an Advisory means the NWS thinks there will be less snow.
Or they would have upgraded the Watch to a Winter Storm Warning.
Local forecast model (local news) is showing 22.1" of snow for New York City.
To follow my own comment, self-doubt is not only a human attribute...I've seen cats and dogs express self-doubt, too!
However, some of the boldest, meanest, and most arrogant people have not one wit of self-doubt, and they're not shy about it, either.

It's snowing in Chicagoland, and I'm staying off the roads for a little while. Only about two inches so far. But when they salt the roads... that'll eat-up your car pretty fast.
Quoting 848. ChiThom:



Maryland, Anne Arundel County
Quoting 849. TimMcManus:




Does this data go back further than 500-1000 years? Possibly something in the range of 50,000-100,000 years?

You still looking for the MWP?
Anyway, we get back into last ice age with this combi of reconstructs. Add a half degree to get the very present.
xx/xx/xx


it is time
Stu Ostro‏:
@StuOstro

An exceptionally energetic storm, with high snowfall rates (& likely #thundersnow) and very strong #WIND #noreaster #blizzard #Stella

Quoting 856. Articuno:



Maryland, Anne Arundel County


Oh, yes, they predicted big snows for you-all.
Quoting 845. RitaEvac:

I just had a vision of Trump and the administration having a ribbon cutting celebration with giant scissors cutting a EPA logo in half, stating the dismantling of the EPA is official....and everybody is gathered around smiling and the media going nuts.


President Trump needs to drain the swamp known as the EPA. The EPA is long overdue for a major overhaul of corruption and over regulations.
Scott Pruitt is a deplorable human being. I wish him nothing but the worst.
Pandemonium will be setting in for the NE soon. 18"-24" possible in NYC
Quoting 842. MonsterTrough:



I get tired of Nea's Climate Change mantra when there are storms to track. But when the blog topic is an 85mph four seamer...Right. Down. Broadway.....He doesn't miss. He's hitting dingers, and I'm in awe.

You might want to review the rules of the road for this site. They clealy state that comments should should pertain to the topics(s) discussed in the blog itself. One of the topics of Dr. Masters' blog is politics ( I know this because it says so right in the little box at the end). If these rules are not to your liking, well, there's lots of blogs out there
Quoting 864. ACSeattle:


You might want to review the rules of the road for this site. They clealy state that comments should should pertain to the topics(s) discussed in the blog itself. One of the topics of Dr. Masters' blog is politics ( I know this because it says so right in the little box at the end). If these rules are not to your liking, well, there's lots of blogs out there


One of the topics of Dr. Masters' blog is politics

And.......this, among other things, would be the reason that I, and countless other "old days" regulars, do not post much here anymore. There is NOWHERE to go anymore, where politics doesn't take a dump all over the subject matter. It's constantly in your face.

Now, I know some of you really enjoy bomb-chucking those with which you disagree; it's like a sport to you people. Fine...

Just understand that there are MANY of us who just tire of the endless hyperventilating over Trump, Obama and everything politics. Jesus....it makes me wonder do people have ANY enjoyment in life?
quick fire hurry I don't know what to do

5 mins ago at my door

fire out extinguisher 1 used

almost

now he got a small mess to clean up
why do people still use hot oil in a pot for fries just buy a deep fryer
my good deed Monday complete
Hopefully Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson are putting together a detailed impact prognosis for this current winter storm as well as with the latest potential numbers; not sounding very good from some of the posts below as to how much snow, in addition to the howling winds, is going to be on tap for a large number of people.
Quoting 868. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my good deed Monday complete



Well done, sir.
Quoting 869. weathermanwannabe:

Hopefully Dr. Masters and Mr. Henson are putting together a detailed impact prognosis for this current winter storm as well as with the latest potential numbers; not sounding very good from some of the posts below as to how much snow, in addition to the howling winds, is going to be on tap for a large number of people.


The NE will pretty much be shutdown for a cpl of days. I don't care how dedicated you are; there is no getting around and through 2 feet of snow.
Quoting 861. frank727:



President Trump needs to drain the swamp known as the EPA. The EPA is long overdue for a major overhaul of corruption and over regulations.


Who better to do it than a sociopath with a track record of being on the wrong side of every issue he's decided or commented on:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Pruitt
NOAA NCEI Climate‏:
@NOAANCEIclimate

#OnThisDay The March 1993 Storm of the Century was the second worst snowstorm to impact the eastern United States: http://bit.ly/2nw3YjY

Please, you are a weatherman! Let it be done with that… the "science" has been politicized, just like the weather now for one reason only…. The government REWARDS Statists, and PUNISHES those who want small and responsible government. You worship the State… "random sample, choose the one you need…" G. Lee
Quoting 90. CaneFreeCR:

I think Trump and all his henchmen are devoted disciples of Grover Norquist and are planning to carry out his wishes. At least all indications point to that.

Ah, another white guy pushing me to an earlier death. Why can't some prosecutor have Norquist, Ryan and McConnell et al. arrested for conspiring to commit premeditated murder?
Eric Holthaus‏:
@EricHolthaus

Wow. NWS in Philadelphia recommends people in parts of PA and NJ to “shelter in place” on Tuesday morning during height of the blizzard.

Quoting 865. nash36:



One of the topics of Dr. Masters' blog is politics

And.......this, among other things, would be the reason that I, and countless other "old days" regulars, do not post much here anymore. There is NOWHERE to go anymore, where politics doesn't take a dump all over the subject matter. It's constantly in your face.

Now, I know some of you really enjoy bomb-chucking those with which you disagree; it's like a sport to you people. Fine...

Just understand that there are MANY of us who just tire of the endless hyperventilating over Trump, Obama and everything politics. Jesus....it makes me wonder do people have ANY enjoyment in life?

It may be futile to come to a science based site expecting to find praise for an administration that revels in "alternative facts"
Quoting 858. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

xx/xx/xx


it is time
Jaws theme
Quoting 877. ACSeattle:


It may be futile to come to a science based site expecting to find praise for an administration that revels in "alternative facts"


It appears my entire point was missed. No one is coming here looking for praise for that unholy regime; we come here (or USED to, as it were) to discuss the "goings-on" with the current weather. My point was this site has turned into that lunatic site (Newsvine), where it is all politics, all the time.
I have a question for our Bloggers in the NE. When we have hurricanes in hurricane alley, they issue mandatory evacs for coastal areas so people don't drown from storm surge or get trapped if they live on barrier islands but the rest of the people usually hunker down in place. Seems like most of you also hunker in place and especially those who still have to work and/or are on fixed incomes and cannot afford to leave if a blizzard or huge snow storm is on the way. Now that my kid lives in the NE she said it is no big deal as the crews do a really good job of keeping main arteries plowed and open and long as you are stocked up with some food, essentials if the power goes, and some source of heating and/or clothing to keep you warm for the event.

My point is, does anyone drive or fly out (assuming they can afford to) before such a big storm or do 99% of Yall just ride it out?
Quoting 865. nash36:



One of the topics of Dr. Masters' blog is politics

And.......this, among other things, would be the reason that I, and countless other "old days" regulars, do not post much here anymore. There is NOWHERE to go anymore, where politics doesn't take a dump all over the subject matter. It's constantly in your face.

Now, I know some of you really enjoy bomb-chucking those with which you disagree; it's like a sport to you people. Fine...

Just understand that there are MANY of us who just tire of the endless hyperventilating over Trump, Obama and everything politics. Jesus....it makes me wonder do people have ANY enjoyment in life?


How can I enjoy the fact that they are trying their best to kill millons? One thing about heat death, it doesnt care about any politics.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 881. weathermanwannabe:

I have a question for our Bloggers in the NE. When we have hurricanes in hurricane alley, they issue mandatory evacs for coastal areas so people don't drown from storm surge or get trapped if they live on barrier islands but the rest of the people usually hunker down in place. Seems like most of you also hunker in place and especially those who still have to work and/or are on fixed incomes and cannot afford to leave if a blizzard or huge snow storm is on the way. Now that my kid lives in the NE she said it is no big deal as the crews do a really good job of keeping main arteries plowed and open and long as you are stocked up with some food, essentials if the power goes, and some source of heating and/or clothing to keep you warm for the event.

My point is, does anyone drive or fly out (assuming they can afford to) before such a big storm or do 99% of Yall just ride it out?
Most immediate concern would be to evacuate some persons living on barrier islands to avoid coastal flooding hazards. Sometimes I'll go to a relative's house (such as during Sandy), he has a generator, but I am going to stay put for this storm as the big snowstorm last year did not cause power outages in my area. Most people in the Northeast tend to stay in place.
Quoting 879. nash36:



I take your point, and I hope we do better than that in the future!
Quoting 855. ChiThom:

To follow my own comment, self-doubt is not only a human attribute...I've seen cats and dogs express self-doubt, too!
However, some of the boldest, meanest, and most arrogant people have not one wit of self-doubt, and they're not shy about it, either.

It's snowing in Chicagoland, and I'm staying off the roads for a little while. Only about two inches so far. But when they salt the roads... that'll eat-up your car pretty fast.


One of the things that I have learned over the years is that if you have an interest in knowing the truth then you must first examine what you already hold to be true. Self doubt is more of a virtue than an impediment when it pertains to wanting to know what is true. It would therefore stand that those that which will cling to their beliefs, caring not if they are right or wrong, will rarely succumb to any sense of self doubt.
Quoting 862. SouthTampa:

Scott Pruitt is a deplorable human being. I wish him nothing but the worst.


Scott Pruitt is saying the same thing to all of us, but the way he is saying it is through policies that he will implement.
Quoting 825. Misanthroptimist:


First the good news: The planet will survive our sustained attack, scarred but functional as ever.

The bad news: In a very few decades there will be substantially fewer humans alive than there are now. Further, our civilization will be no more. No telling how much or how little technology and knowledge we'll hold onto, could go either way depending on a bunch of semi-random factors. My advice (and my actions of the last several years) is to begin preparing for the collapse. It won't, imo, be Doomsday in all likelihood. It will be a long, slow decline punctuated by the occasional steep drop...until one day we'll look around amazed at how much is gone.


I'm telling all my grandchildren to learn something about gardening and small "truck farm" plots. My aunts survived the depression by growing vegetables and picking cotton. Sometime my uncle would bring in a squirrel or rabbit if he had shot. They bought shot and a few items from the "peddler" or walked the five miles into town. My aunt told the story where she walked back and forth three times looking for the nickle she had lost, the cost of the enameled bowl she had bought for flour and dough. Grand pa was angry but she was not as frightend of him as she was of not having enough to get next month's flour.

Me, I'm more afraid of the radiation than the rising water. Bad times are coming again and none but the 1% will be immune...if they make it to their shelters in time ($35,000 for each ticket, oversold because, traffic).

You know, most of the CO2 emissions are caused by building roads, cars and homes. It also comes from things you don't normally think about, like feed lot animals, cattle and chicken mostly.

Something else you don't want to hear contributes to it too... Weather instruments, computers, and other electronics (including the plastics involved). So pardon me while I laugh a little bit when using my computer to read what you posted. A computer which is on 24/7 to send PWS data to WU. LMAO! - Oh man, we are such hypocrites, shame on us!

It's really not worth complaining about climate change deniers anymore. All of us might as well be denying it too, because it's clear WE ARE DOOMED!

I see all the projections on the internet (another CO2 emitter) about how bad it's going to get if we continue our current path. That's all fine and dandy, but where are the instructions for surviving the projections we know we can't do anything about?

I see all the ideas for reducing CO2 emissions. That's all fine and dandy too, but "reducing" does not equal "stopping" nor "reversing" climate change disasters.

I also see our world population getting bigger and bigger and bigger (another CO2 emitter), but no ideas on how to fix that. Shouldn't we be walking around with CO2 filters by now? Oh wait... I forgot... that's what WAR is for. My bad... No wait... WAR is another CO2 emitter. Not to mention any breathing filters would also contribute to CO2 emissions at such a grand scale. Man, WE ARE SCREWED!

I really don't think there's any way to escape the inevitable here. We might as well just enjoy the ride and go down with the ship. So what if people don't believe it. It's not like we can actually battle the planet and win much. We do the damage and Nature kicks our butts. Sounds fair to me!

I welcome Climate Change Disasters and accept them. Bring It On! I'm ready to ride this rollercoaster into oblivion and have fun doing it. Woo-Hoo!
Quoting 849. TimMcManus:




Does this data go back further than 500-1000 years? Possibly something in the range of 50,000-100,000 years?
Quoting 808. Misanthroptimist:


Actually, you are wrong. MBH98 has been validated by several subsequent temperature reconstructions. Reconstructions using different methods provide further evidence that Mann's hockey stick is correct. It's warmer than it has been for many millennia, probably since before humans evolved.







It should be noted that those graphs end ten or more years before now. We've warmed a bit more since then. MBH98 while not perfect, was certainly correct on the whole.

Now, since you have become acquainted with the facts, you'll change your opinion to match the evidence, right? Right?


Don't know which pipe you guys are smoking from, here is some real data to ingest when you come down.

The Holocene 12,6 (2002) pp. 657–665
A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in
northern Swedish Lapland: natural
climatic variability expressed on annual
to millennial timescales

Håkan Grudd,1,2* Keith R. Briffa,3 Wibjorn Karle´n,2
Thomas S. Bartholin,4,5 Philip D. Jones
3 and Bernd Kromer
6
(
1Climate Impacts Research Centre, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, S-981 07 Abisko, Sweden;
2Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary
Geology, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
3Climatic
Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;
4Department
of Quaternary Geology, Lund University, Tornav. 13, S-223 63 Lund, Sweden;
5Natural Science Research Institute, National Museum of Denmark, NY
Vestergade II, DK-1471 Copenhagen, Denmark;
6Heidelberg Academy of
Sciences, Inst. f. Umweltphysik, INF 366, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany)

Check out figure 8 for real eye opener. This site is free unlike the paywalled hot head sites.

Link


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Geez...Why don't you just get off your 'man will destroy the whole earth' soap box, and hate filled politics??? I'm here for weather, not your opinion regarding climate change dreamers...
Quoting 799. AGWcreationists:

Actually, Mann's hockey stick tried to pretend the Medieval Warm Period did not exist.

Actually Mann's original hockey stick graph only went back to 1400 which was after the MWP ended so why would you expect it to show anything about that?
Quoting 891. iceagecoming:



Don't know which pipe you guys are smoking from, here is some real data to ingest when you come down.

The Holocene 12,6 (2002) pp. 657–665
A 7400-year tree-ring chronology in
northern Swedish Lapland: natural
climatic variability expressed on annual
to millennial timescales

Håkan Grudd,1,2* Keith R. Briffa,3 Wibjorn Karle´n,2
Thomas S. Bartholin,4,5 Philip D. Jones
3 and Bernd Kromer
6
(
1Climate Impacts Research Centre, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, S-981 07 Abisko, Sweden;
2Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary
Geology, Stockholm University, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
3Climatic
Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK;
4Department
of Quaternary Geology, Lund University, Tornav. 13, S-223 63 Lund, Sweden;
5Natural Science Research Institute, National Museum of Denmark, NY
Vestergade II, DK-1471 Copenhagen, Denmark;
6Heidelberg Academy of
Sciences, Inst. f. Umweltphysik, INF 366, D-69120 Heidelberg, Germany)

Check out figure 8 for real eye opener. This site is free unlike the paywalled hot head sites.

Link


You were very wise to make your comment on an inactive blog. The study that you link to is on a very localized region of Sweden. Since the topic concerns global climate change then you just made a big swing and a miss.
Quoting 894. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You were very wise to make your comment on an inactive blog. The study that you link to is on a very localized region of Sweden. Since the topic concerns global climate change then you just made a big swing and a miss.

Another thug (one post will do fine to recognize 'm).
Quoting 894. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You were very wise to make your comment on an inactive blog. The study that you link to is on a very localized region of Sweden. Since the topic concerns global climate change then you just made a big swing and a miss.


Hardly a miss.

Conclusions
(1) The Tornetra¨sk tree-ring chronology is annually resolved
and includes continuous data from 5407 bc to ad 1997, providing
a precisely dated record of summer-temperature variability.
664 The Holocene 12 (2002)
(2) The strong association with summer temperature in conjunction
with the large numbers of samples for each year translates
into narrow conŽ dence limits around the expressed temperature
signal in the last 2000 years. The errors are signiŽ cantly larger in
the pre-Christian era, mainly due to reduced sample depth.
(3) The record displays signifcant temperature changes on
timescales from years to several centuries, which is representative
for a large area in northern Sweden, possibly also for a wider area.
(4) The record does not express the full range of millennialtimescale
temperature variation in the Tornetra¨sk area.

And as such in bold, Siberia and other latitude regions were effected.

Tree-ring width of Pinus sylvestris (von Linné) from 257 subfossil tree samples, supplementary data to: Friedrich, Michael; Kromer, Bernd; Kaiser, Klaus-Felix; Spurk, Marco; Hughen, Konrad A; Johnsen, Sigfus J (2001): High-resolution climate signals in the Bølling-Allerød Interstadial (Greenland Interstadial 1) as reflected in European tree-ring chronologies compared to marine varves and ice-core records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 20(11), 1223-1232

Author: Michael Friedrich; Bernd Kromer; Klaus-Felix Kaiser; Marco Spurk; Konrad A Hughen; All authors
Publisher: Bremen/Bremerhaven PANGAEA - Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science
Edition/Format: Computer file : English
Database: WorldCat
Summary:
Lateglacial and Holocene tree-ring chronologies are unique archives, which provide various information on past environments on a true annual time scale. Changes in ring-width can be related to past climate anomalies and dendrodated wood provides an ideal source for radiocarbon calibration. We present a 1051 year tree-ring chronology from the Late Glacial, built from subfossil Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) that grew in different regions of Central and Southern Europe. Through a series of high-precision radiocarbon measurements we obtained a floating radiocarbon chronology, which allowed accurate wiggle-matching to the INTCAL98 calibration curve. The trees show a coherent pattern in ring-width variations throughout Central Europe, and extending into the Mediterranean, which indicates a strong external climatic factor, most probably temperature during the growing season. We identified major growth events, which appear synchronous with events seen in isotopic and tracer signals in the Greenland ice cores and with changes in the strength of upwelling in the Cariaco Basin.



But since this info is a bee in your bonnet, you get your knickers in a twist.
I post where I see inaccuracies, not on the next topic, Bombogenesis or Blizzard.
Interesting how this happens in a global warming world, Ha, then even said all the ski areas
would be out of business soon, looks like we'll be hitting the slopes up here till May. :)
Quoting 896. iceagecoming:



Hardly a miss.

Conclusions
(1) The Tornetra¨sk tree-ring chronology is annually resolved
and includes continuous data from 5407 bc to ad 1997, providing
a precisely dated record of summer-temperature variability.
664 The Holocene 12 (2002)
(2) The strong association with summer temperature in conjunction
with the large numbers of samples for each year translates
into narrow conŽ dence limits around the expressed temperature
signal in the last 2000 years. The errors are signiŽ cantly larger in
the pre-Christian era, mainly due to reduced sample depth.
(3) The record displays signifcant temperature changes on
timescales from years to several centuries, which is representative
for a large area in northern Sweden, possibly also for a wider area.
(4) The record does not express the full range of millennialtimescale
temperature variation in the Tornetra¨sk area.

And as such in bold, Siberia and other latitude regions were effected.

Tree-ring width of Pinus sylvestris (von Linné) from 257 subfossil tree samples, supplementary data to: Friedrich, Michael; Kromer, Bernd; Kaiser, Klaus-Felix; Spurk, Marco; Hughen, Konrad A; Johnsen, Sigfus J (2001): High-resolution climate signals in the Bølling-Allerød Interstadial (Greenland Interstadial 1) as reflected in European tree-ring chronologies compared to marine varves and ice-core records. Quaternary Science Reviews, 20(11), 1223-1232

Author: Michael Friedrich; Bernd Kromer; Klaus-Felix Kaiser; Marco Spurk; Konrad A Hughen; All authors
Publisher: Bremen/Bremerhaven PANGAEA - Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science
Edition/Format: Computer file : English
Database: WorldCat
Summary:
Lateglacial and Holocene tree-ring chronologies are unique archives, which provide various information on past environments on a true annual time scale. Changes in ring-width can be related to past climate anomalies and dendrodated wood provides an ideal source for radiocarbon calibration. We present a 1051 year tree-ring chronology from the Late Glacial, built from subfossil Scots pines (Pinus sylvestris) that grew in different regions of Central and Southern Europe. Through a series of high-precision radiocarbon measurements we obtained a floating radiocarbon chronology, which allowed accurate wiggle-matching to the INTCAL98 calibration curve. The trees show a coherent pattern in ring-width variations throughout Central Europe, and extending into the Mediterranean, which indicates a strong external climatic factor, most probably temperature during the growing season. We identified major growth events, which appear synchronous with events seen in isotopic and tracer signals in the Greenland ice cores and with changes in the strength of upwelling in the Cariaco Basin.



But since this info is a bee in your bonnet, you get your knickers in a twist.
I post where I see inaccuracies, not on the next topic, Bombogenesis or Blizzard.
Interesting how this happens in a global warming world, Ha, then even said all the ski areas
would be out of business soon, looks like we'll be hitting the slopes up here till May. :)


Interesting article. It's well written and they're nice and detailed about their methods. If I were peer-reviewing it, most of my questions would revolve around the treatment of error. For example, in Figure 3 the error in age estimation is both the width and height of the boxes. From the height alone, most of the errors are over 100 years. They then go on to say that based on one sample, they reduce the error to +/- 10 years (Fig 4). Even if this error can be extrapolated to the rest of the samples (that seems like quite a jump to me), presenting the data on an annual basis as in Fig 8a is clearly not warranted.

Then you have the temperature model. I'm sorry, but a 0.58 and 0.60 correlation factor is NOT a good fit. Not by any estimation. And this is for the years where the model is best understood! They get into this a bit in the paper when they say their error will definitely increase with increasing age.

Upshot is, when you combine both error sources, I don't think this paper says much about the temperature variations at this site in historical times. The strongest conclusion that could be made, in my opinion, is that the temperature in northern Sweden has been remarkably stable over the past 7000 years. Which, if I'm not mistaken, is what those previously posted plots say as well.
Here's a fact for you - if we do nothing the climate still changes. In fact the climate has always changed - always. The only climate change deniers are the ones that thing you can stop climate change by giving trillions in "sin taxes" to the UN so they can use the money fund Muslims in Africa cutting the slits, with a c, off of girls and buying weapons to for 3rd worlders so they use it to kill Jews - oh when the UN armies aren't committing mass rape or backing out of their agreements to provide support to allied troops or do things like act against s brutal dictator that had ignored 16 warnings about violating a cease fire.

If there is a man made problem then science and corporations will will come up with a soultions when it's profitable to do so. These same panic mongers saying how how we must act now, we must give power to the UN, your individual freedoms are no match to the crisis we face, etc etc etc, these are the same people 10-12 years ago talking about peak oil and how we must act now, we must give power to the government to regulate our lives because it's a crisis.

Anywho here's my suggestion - let's actually see some of these computer models prove them self over a long period of time and then revisit the situation in a few decades. Also keep in mind that so long as whitey runs America that a global welfare scheme meant to steal American wealth to pay for socislsts countries collapsing governments - which is where these sin taxes would go - well those Eurotrask kucks aren't going to collect.
Thank you Mr. Pruitt for bringing sanity back into the discussion instead of all the fear, uncertainty, and distrust spread by the climate-change fear mongers. It's sad that real science is being taken over by computer models that don't have the capacity or the information necessary to accurately predict. At best, it's a guess. It's sad that so many refuse to face the facts that their guesses have been wrong so many times that there is no faith in their ability to predict anything. And basing science on faith is always a bad thing.