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Emily strengthening again

By: Dr. Jeff Masters,

Posted: 10pm EDT Monday July 17
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Emily is slowly strengthening. Latest recon at 9:22 pm from the Hurricane Hunters found the pressure down one mb to 983 mb, surface winds of at least 90 mph, and a good radar presentation of the eyewall. The eyewall was open to the SW, however.

The satellite images also show an improved organization, but also that Emily is still pulling in dry air from the Yucatan. In a few more hours, Emily will move far enough away from the Yucatan so that more significant strenthening can occur. We'll have a Category 2 storm by morning.

As far as the track forecast goes, there is a trough of low pressure pulling Emily a little more northward than yesterday's track; she is now moving at about 300 degrees. However, the cold front attached to the trough just cleared Michigan, bringing heavy thunderstorms here (and FINALLY clearing out the remains of Hurricane Dennis!) This trough and associated cold front are rapidly headed east, and by morning should lessen its pull on Emily. I expect a more westward track tomorrow, as the models and NHC are predicting. Texas should miss a direct hit by Emily.

It's amazing to watch the weather here in Michigan and see connections to a hurricane far away in the tropics. The weather everyone experiences is interconnected and influences what happens to the weather everywhere else. Similarly, for those of you who post to this blog, keep in mind that what you say and think influences what the other readers think and do, so please keep it constructive. It's been great reading everyone's input, keep the comments coming.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dr. Masters
I've got some family in this place called Novi Michigan
Did they get the storms?
Dr. Masters,
Is there any sign of a TD6 out in the Atlantic? I saw some brief talk on t.v. about the possibility before Em got going good, but haven't seen anything on it in days.
Is emailme starting to become quite dull to anyone other than myself?
It looks like the window of opportunity for TD6-to-be has closed, but then again...its 2005.
hey emma i live in Wixom not far from Novi...thunderstorms here where a non event..just some rain and a few flashes of lighting
New recon says the pressure is still only 984 mb, the same pressure Emily had when it emerged off the coast of the Yucatan about 16 hours ago. The temp difference between the inside and outside of the eye has actually gone to zero, indicating absolutely no strengthening is in the cards for a while.
Dr. Have question about forcasting for storms this next month. Heading to Puerto Rico with the family 8/3-8/13. Have been told there is a possible storm off the coast of Africa that could head towards PR. What is the best way for me to keep a eye out for possible storms.
Thanks
socal60
Dr. Masters,

Your blog has been great - petty bickering in the comments aside - and I hope that after this storm perhaps you will provide general hurricane information ie development, behavior, and information on modeling and such.

Thanks again.
104
URNT12 KNHC 190638
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/06:22:20Z
B. 23 deg 16 min N
092 deg 55 min W
C. 700 mb 2931 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 053 deg 081 kt
G. 318 deg 016 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C/ 3043 m
J. 13 C/ 3053 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-SW
M. E07/45/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF308 1805A EMILY OB 26
MAX FL WIND 92 KT NE QUAD 04:42:20 Z
RADAR SIGNATURE GOOD.

980MB/92KT/96MPH/155KM/HR/CAT 2 @ 01:45AM CDT
emily will not strengthen anymore because she will be over shallower water and the water will be a lot cooler so emily i think has peaked out unless she drifts back towards the south..if she stalls anything could ocurr with direction...erratic movement ..emily could be around quite a few more days.......
she appears to be moving more briskly now that she has gotten herself together.

she wont be over water past 4 am tonight
Put a fork in her, guys! She's DONE! :-) My thanks to the Dr for such informative discussions about Emily and hurricanes (and himmicanes?) in general. Very fascinating stuff!! Thanks again!