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Emily churning through Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:44 PM GMT on July 18, 2005

Posted: 2pm EDT Monday July 17
Emily is now a Category 1 hurricane. The 1:22pm EDT Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 984 mb and peak winds at 10,000 feet on the NE side of 89 mph, which would make Emily's surface winds about 75 mph. Satellite imagery shows a large area of dry air spiraling north from the Yucatan Peninsula and wrapping into the center of the hurricane. This dry air is severely weakening Emily. The storm has a more ragged appearance than when it moved off the coast at 9am, and the lack of convection on the south side has expanded.

Emily has shown great resilience, and may still regain Category 3 status when she moves further away from the Yucatan and stops pulling in so much dry air. However, the kind of disruption of the inner core that appears to be happening usually takes at least a day for a hurricane to recover from, and Emily has only 36 hours before landfall. It is unlikely Emily will be stronger than a Category 2 storm at its next landfall.

Posted: 10am EDT Monday July 17
Emily made landfall at 2am EDT this morning as a Category 4 storm with peak winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 955 mb. The eye passed just southwest of Cozumel, Mexico, with the northern eyewall passing over Cozumel. No wind, pressure, or damage reports have emerged from Mexico yet, but the 8 - 12 foot storm surge and 135 mph winds must have done tremendous damage.

Emily's eye moved off the coast of Mexico at approximately 9am EDT this morning, after spending just seven hours over the Yucatan Peninsula. The hurricane has survived the crossing fairly intact, as a Category 2 hurricane. The storm looks somewhat lopsided, with a notable lack of cloudiness on the south side where dry air from the Yucatan has been drawn in. However, the eye is still distinct, a decent-looking circular Cirrus Dense Overcast still covers the center of the hurricane, and Emily has exellent-looking spiral banding. This is the look of a hurricane that has been only temporarily disrupted, and will soon begin strengthening. There is plenty of warm water ahead of the hurricane, and low vertical wind shear. I see nothing that will prevent Emily from reaching Category 3 status by tomorrow, perhaps even a strong Category 3.

The track forecast remains pretty much the same, with Mexico expected to receive a second pounding early Wednesday morning when Emily comes ashore about 50 miles south of the Texas border. The median track error the past 10 years for a 36-hour forecast is over 100 miles, so Emily could still hit Texas. However, the NHC has done an great job forecasting this hurricane the past seven days. The five-day forecast issued five days ago put the landfall of Emily as a Category 3 storm directly over Cozumel, and was in error by less than 75 miles. This is a pretty excellent forecast, considering the median error for a 5-day forecast is 310 miles. Since that forecast was issued, the forecast errors for 3-day forecasts have been below 100 miles every day. And with the NOAA jet up in the air sampling Emily's large scale environment each of the past two days, the reliabililty of the current and future forecasts is likely to continue to be excellent. Thus, the chances of Texas getting a direct hit from Emily is less than 25%.

Jamaica was largely spared yesterday, as Emily passed 100 miles south of the island and brought them only tropical storm force winds. However, torrential rains caused serious flooding damage and was responsible for sweeping five people to their deaths when they drove past a closed road blockade and were swept over a cliff by floodwaters.

The Cayman Islands, which Emily missed by only 85 miles, also escaped serious damage. As reported by WunderBlogger CaymanMike:, "Wow! Grand Cayman and the Sister Islands made it through our brush with Emily with nothing more than some gusty tropical storm force winds and some heavy rains. The official word from the government is that the power stayed on over the island, the airport has reopened and no major damage is reported."

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

i have to step in here: what are you not correct by saying the eye went directly over cozumel?

the eye did NOT make it directly over Cozumel. the northern edge of the eyeWALL crossed over Cozumel and at the time, this side of the eyewall was weaker than the south side due to the structual change of the storm and you can easily see this in the dvork signatures and the recon position of highest flight level winds at the time.

the eye DID pass over an area just north of Tulum, much further southt than Cozumel and this is the are aof greatest concern (and thankfully, much less inhabited.)
Well, I woke up this morning to find that Emily had crossed the Yucatan pretty much just like the NHC said it would (5 days ago). Hmmm, no turn directly north, no clipping Cancun to the east, and no apparent plans to tackle upper TX or LA... Where is stormtop this morning?!
Fair enough, I changed my entry to be more specific, "The eye passed just southwest of Cozumel, Mexico, with the northern eyewall passing over Cozumel."

Dr. Jeff Masters
Posted By: NHC2005 at 8:42 PM GMT on July 15, 2005.
no way is your track forecast correct--all trends now showing shift south, perhaps central america even, so i would say cancun could be saved...

Based on the credibility of your comments NHC2005, criticism of others should be at the bottom of your list
Raindancer, based on past experience, I would guess the "experts" will have appropriate excuses.
hey raindancer....Last I heard he was peering into a crystal ball...LOL..
you should read my ENTIRE blog. i eliminated that possibility on the 15th...4 days ago! guess you failed to see the acurate strength and cancun effect predictions as well...

im not knocking dr. jeff, i just want the facts to be accurate, mainly b/c they have serious ramifications...example: i am receiving reports from cozumel that there have bit battered, but not devestated. this is indicative of the eyewall passing near them. had the eye gone over the island, devestation would have occurred.

HA! I thought perhaps eating his words for breakfast... Anyone know the population density (generally speaking) in the area where Emily is suppose to come ashore in northern Mexico?
NHC2005, what I see is you coming into this blog to criticize observations of others while providing observations with a lot of bluster that are less accurate. The prediction noted above was made by you on 7/15 at 4pm edt. I guess it was pretty short-lived if you eliminated it that same evening.
10. vlee
i'm not sure of the numbers but i have been there many times. Between Tulum and Playa Del Carmen, there is not a huge population. The problem is that the small towns that are there are very near the water and the homes are not the more sturdy type you would see in more touristy areas. I pray everyone made it through ok.
raindancer: between Tampico and Brownsville there are some smaller coastal villages including Aldama, La Pesca/Soto La Marina, and San Fernando which could be affected. My wife's family lives in the area, but there's not a huge population, mostly farming and cattle ranching villages.
12. dcw
What happened here? The comments to this blog entry look worse then Cozumel must right now. To the fellow who said that Cozumel wasn't badly hit because the eye hit only the south end, let me remind you that the strongest winds are found in the right-front quadrant of a hurricane, in this case the northern quadrant. Cozumel got the worst, since you have 135 mph winds + Emily's motion = Near CAT5 intensity.
13. vlee
txtim have you had any word from the area?
14. vlee
we were able to get a hold of some friends very early this morning in Playa Del Carmen. They are ok but they are on the far north side. It sounds like they are moving people further north in the city so it is possible that the southern side got hit pretty badly
Call me crazy, but between last advisory and the latest one, we have seen Emily make her first official NW motion at 312.7 degrees....

And the 'models' have shifted south...HAH!
she may get squished south...looking at data bouy to her north...pressure is rising...
dcw, normally the NE quadrant is the worst of the storm, but this storm went through major changes late last night and the upper low to the west got in under the northern side of the storm, adding sheer and adding a dry slot--this and weakened the north quadrants SIGNIFICANTLY, so you are not correct in Emily's case. recon reported max flight winds at 125 knots, winds at teh surface were likely no more than 105-also confirmed by damage reports.

outrocket - also look at wind direction. This has always helped me. Let's see if the low in Campehche (sp?) holds on or not.
Man it is hard to work and watch this.
I seem to remember the same thing happening with Dennis. People were bashing the computer models constantly on here and there seemed to be this morbid want for the hurricane to go to a more populated area, like Mobile or New Orleans. If you check it out, the models were fairly accurate in the end.
Is GOES 12 down for you guys? I'm unable to load it (or any of the NASA Sat site for that matter)? and RAMSDIS is being sketchy too.

21. SEFL
"Hurricane Emily slammed into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early Monday as a powerful Category 4 storm, snapping concrete utility poles with its winds of 135 mph and punishing waves along the region's famous white-sand beaches.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Emily made landfall near Tulum 100 miles south of Cancun. The northern eyewall where the worst weather would be expected passed directly over Cozumel, it said."

NHC2005, are these the confirming damage reports to which you are referring?

Please, let's keep the blog commenting civil. The technical staff has more important things to be working on now than implementing a blog comment block list... We do not want to let our blogs turn into the typical internet flame war that you see everywhere. If you want to criticize a blogger's material, please keep it on your own blog. Thanks to everyone who play nice! --Tech Staff
Here here
txtim - Thanks for your feedback on the population...
Thought I came into a political blog for a moment -
Getting back to the real storm - We're breathing a bit easier here in Houston - but the storm clouds are on the horizon here - guess we're in for storms this a.m.
i personally tune into the posts on this site just to see what people will say to try and out predict the experts. So far it looks like the experts are winning on this one so lets all give it up for the NHC as well as Dr. Masters for getting this one right. Or are your egos too big for it.
SEFL, no check my blog for specific damage reports via internet and phone w/ isal mujeres, cancun hilton and cozumel.
The structure of Emily seems interesting to me... The storm has a plume of strong convection off to the north, a lot like it did when it passed south of Jamaica. I know then the reasoning for the higher convection was the land interaction with Jamaica. What is that all about this time, though, since it is over the open water?

Thanks for everyone's fantastic insight thus far and thank you in advance for your insight on this.
I agree with Chris and moocrew--more power to you and keep up the good work--it sure helps us all decide where to go and what to do--candy
Oneday, I was noticing that too...not sure why it is doing, nor can I speculate what that means for the storm...

One this is for certain, this storm is moving extremely fast!! In the past few hours it is certainly taking a more westard track, we'll have to wait and see if that holds as it has taken a more northward track during the past few afternoons. I'd look for landfall tomorrow evening given the fast speed it is moving...
i would like to ask a question nhc?why the landfall late wednesday now...you guys have to be expecting something a major slow down maybe even a stall...is the high weakening in the central gulf the pressures have fallen there since yesterday..please explain
Well IMHO I think we going to have a couple of weeks of calm, shear conditions are not good in the typical locations. And the water has been stired up a bit as of late so some of the cooler weather has gotten into the warmer parts of the ocean. Then again I could be wrong and we can have another 3 systems before the month is done (ie been having one of the average of every 4 days)
there is already a system they are watching east of the winward islands which could be our 6th topical depression as soon as tomorrow.
Any chance the convection is happening to the north, because Emily is picking up dry air from the south over the Yucatan (and thus not doing well at creating convection south of the storm) -- whereas the north side of the storm is out over moist, warm Gulf water?
nhc could you give me and answer why the late landfall wednesday..what are you guys expecting why the slow down..is the high weakening over the central gulf and also is the cold front coming down will that have and effect on emily...
raindancer where the storm is now the water temps are in the high 70's...another 100 miles out then you will see emily strtengthen over 84+ waters......
Stormtop with all the information being feed into the models how can they be wrong? before you could say that the data was insufficiant but now their is plenty of data. Probably mountains of it and so the models should be fairly accurate. They are all pointing the same way SW
pressures still high north of it sundancer,data bouy nearest Date = 4:46 PM GMT on July 18, 2005
Good point.
im just asking you tell me then why a late wednesday landfall...if emily is moving at 17 she should make land fall tomorrow......answer me what do you think the problem is.
i agree outrocket look at the latest fix from cancun radar
emily could make land fall wednesday..they call for her foward speed to drop and if the high stengthens as it looks to be from data bouys north of storm...she may get squished south a little on her course..so a longer distance and slower speed....later land fall...
OMG..huricane wars..sounds like some people need a major ego adjustment.
i checked the pressures in the north central gulf and they have been falling since yesterday..you tell me how can the high be building in now..i think the high will build in but not as fast as they expected causing a major error in the track...i have no faith in the computers.
ok heres how...and look at the morning trend..http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42002
all the heavy convection from emily is moving north where the pressures are falling...there has to be a weakness in the central gulf are like i said the big bad high hasnt moved in yet..
that bouy is the west central gulf,closest to storm ,have watched it all morning,pressure is rising.as far as clouds...well they need high pressure to vent,so you have low pressure SW...where else can it vent but north?
for information purposes only .....you guys think emily was bad well try hurricane allan in 1980 the strongest hurricane pressure wise in the northern hemisphere.......26.55 898mb max winds 185 with gusts to 225......
So far this morning, it looks like she's behaving just as the NHC (and models) expected. Emily had a bit of NW jog coming off the Yucatan, but appears to have definitely turned more WNW since then. Landfall in northern Mexico in about 36 hours? Hurricane warnings to come out sometime later this afternoon / evening?
ok outrocket what ever you say...im just stating a true fact the pressures have fallen since yesterday and have done the opposite where they predict emily to go...we shall see..
yea sundancer..alot of times when hurricanes make landfall..they have whats called "Hook Effect"..when 1/ the eywall is on land..its slowed considerbly more than 1/2 over water....so they tend to HOOK north but resume their normal track after stablization of wall..
stormtop..Im not saying it...LOL the instuments on the bouy are...they have been rising all day,I cant change data or the bouys readings...they are what they are .
Stormtop, the pressures have indeed been falling steadily... not sure if that means the ridge is breaking down a bit or not...?
in 1988 Hurricane Gilbert reached 888mb on 9/14/88
i think the ridge has a weakness in it and it appears to be in the central gulf where all the heavy convection is headed from emily...its moving due north towards the falling pressures...watcher i think there is definitely something up..only time will tell especially when that cold front sinks souuth over ark and oklahoma...
outrocket - I am with you - Pressures are rising. Where is the data that shows them otherwise?
check gilberts winds though.....not as strong as allans.i know im looking at gilbert now..
im talking in the central gulf not the western gulf where the storm is predicted to go.......
Well personally i think that this storm will go where they say she will. Not to say people in TX. are out of the woods but look at the path she is already taking...looks a lot like the path the nogaps has for her.
bouy#42003..30.01and rising,bouy #42001 central gulf..29.96 rising,bouy#42002 west gulf 29.98 and rising...where are these dropping barometers you speak of???
dont make me laugh the nogaps at one time had it going into hondouras...computers are out to lunch man..they are getting old..need to be updated
I am so Krunchy the Klown! And Emily will definitly hit Japan! osokuuu!!!!
On the question of which is the worse side, the answer normally is the right eyewall. On that side movement speed actually adds to the wind. But remember the convection in a hurricane moves winds to the surface so to speak. Where you have the strongest convection then generally that is where the surface winds will be highest. This is why often when a hurricane is weakening at landfall the winds at the surface will be less since usally the convection is doing a worst job of transporting winds to the surface. On the other hand when a hurricane is intensifying and convection is stonger a higher wind is present at the surface. Now this a simplification but it explain much.

A good example of the is Hurricane Celia in Corpus Christi, the eye went just north of the city, but the city suffered damage(nothing short of devestation) that was similiar to Andrew's. This happened because extrememly intense convection developed in the southern eyewall. Also for the record this was rapidly strengthen storm at landfall.

Without seeing the radar at landfall I can't tell if this was the case with Emily at landfall.

but like i said that was before they probably had sufficant data to input into the models. The models are only as good as the data. Besides they did say it would go into the Yucatan and it did and now it is on a WNW my are saying it's on course with it's westerly movement - she's been fairly on track since the beginning. But, they just upped the warning to Baffian Bay just a little north of Brownsville though.Maybe (hopefully) that's the most "north" she'll go - just stay away from Houston, please
Regarding the pressure changes try this link. http://coolwx.com/usstats/pchstats.php There does not seem to be much of a 3 hour or 24 pressure change in the gulf states. As for strongest tropical cyclone in northern hemisphere, I bet some of the typhoons in the Pacific, like Tip, were stronger than Allen.

Guess for landfall, 30 miles north of Tuxpan, 966 mb 110 mph
66. K8e1
67. CRT
Just wondering, what happened to the Vortex Data Messages? I would assume the hunters would know Emily inside out by now with it being so close. Last message was 5:03:40Z (around land fall)?
I'm new here but I've been following along.
Another thing about west Pacific Typhoons--I wonder how strong they can really get. Systemic aircraft reconnaisance was only done for 4 seasons, from 1976-1979, and Typhoon Tip was the strongest at 870 mb. But in 1997 reconnaisance was done on two typhoons near Guam, and 872 mb pressures were found in both--wonder if 860 or even 850 (!) mb pressures have occured that we haven't measured.
StSimon - Interesting prediction... 30 miles north of Tuxpan would definitely suggest a strong curvature back to the west and then SW - correct? I'll go with landfall a little ways north of La Pesca, 955 mb, 130 mph -- and strengthening at landfall.
Prediction on Dennis and when I made it

Date: 1:57 PM GMT on July 06, 2005
By: oriondarkwood
Here is my non-expert opinion one where I think Dennis is going and what will it hit as.

I believe Dennis will hit the Flordia panhandle 50 miles east of Gulf Shores, Alabama (Ivan hit this location last year). It will hit as a weak Cat 4 storm (cat 4 storms are 131 - 140)


What actually happened

Hurricane Dennis made landfall with 115 - 120 (cat 3 storms are 111 - 130) winds the eye came across Gulf Breeze, fl (36.1 miles east of Gulf Shores, AL where Ivan hit)


Prediction on Emily (1st hit)


6:07 PM GMT on July 11, 2005
By: oriondarkwood

"...Now it seems I was wrong, I failed to take in effect the high presure system that has taken root in central Mexico (anyone know where to get a good future high and low pressure maps?). Right now I see a Emily Cat 3 pushing Cat 4 hitting the northern tip of the Yutcan (around Cancun).."


What actually happened

Emily made landfall at 2am EDT this morning as a Category 4 storm with peak winds of 135 mph and a central pressure of 955 mb. The eye passed just southwest of Cozumel, Mexico, with the northern eyewall passing over Cozumel which is 50 - 80 miles south of Cancun

Prediction on Emily (2nd hit)

Posted By: oriondarkwood at 2:02 PM EDT on July 17, 2005.
Made this prediction a couple of days ago, looks like I might be semi right with my number 2 in this statement. Spooky if it comes true since I got the Ivan impact right (well almost I judged a little high on the power).

Now it seems I was wrong, I failed to take in effect the high presure system that has taken root in central Mexico (anyone know where to get a good future high and low pressure maps?). Right now I see a Emily Cat 3 pushing Cat 4 hitting the northern tip of the Yutcan (around Cancun) which will not harm it much due to low elevation and its already on a more northwest track. This will happen Monday, after that one of 3 events will happen and I am putting my money on 1

1. The high in Mexcio will be in the gulf and cause Emily to make a almost north path and slam into SE Texas as a strong Cat 3

2. The high will not more and Emily will slam into Mexico around Tampico


Right now Tampico has a 14% of the eye hitting it.. I say I am doing fairly well for a novice at this. Any Comments
StSimonsIslandGAGuy, one note. Storms in the west pacific basin have lower pressure for equal windspeed than storms in the Atlantic.
i agree with the upper texas coast..i said this days ago when emily was still south of jamaica...
oriondarkwood, why do you put your money on #1? I'm in Houston and that would be very interesting..
i was strictly talking northern hemisphere with gilbert and allan....
Raindancer, we will have to see who is right! My prediction for Dennis was not particularly accurate (panama city, 953 mb, 115 mph) This is another cool link about pressure-- http://coolwx.com/usstats/movies/presmovie.gif

*warning* lots of megabytes, don't attempt if on dialup.
Also, have to watch for diurnal pressure variations in the movie.
That's right txweather, I had forgotten about the pressure/wind differential in the western pacific. Still, the wind (not to mention the waves) in typhoon Tip must have been insane! Stormtop, the western pacific typhoon zone *is* in the northern hemisphere. Allen and Gilbert (and the 1935 storm ) were not slouches in the western hemisphere though
Rarely hear about the southern hemisphere storms, though I seem to recall reading something about the largest storm surge on record coming from a storm that hit Australia... (I could be wrong)
We'll know where it's going once it gets there and no sooner is my prediction!!! :-)
Wind speeds on Cozumel:

hurricanecity reported 125mph on the N part of the island.

Dave Dillehay at Aldora Divers reported 135mph at landfall at Punta Sur on the S tip of the island.

I don't know any details about how these wind speeds were obtained.
cherikm - I'm afraid you've just outwitted all of us! =:)
mike emily is weakening barely a hurricane now..i cant see emily coming close to cat 3 again on the wnw track.....
thinks miss emily has embedded her self into that high pressure with her foward speed...LOL its filling her in a little,she either slows down or dies...decesions...decesions...poor girl...

No problem.
Emmy, the warning for Baffin Bay have been up since 4AM local this morning...
emily is going to be hell for the nhc ..this storm track will be changed many times when emily comes to a dead stall later tonight..
** correction **

WATCH from N Mex to Baffin Bay since 4AM local...
i remember many hurricanes going right to the coast of mexico and just stalling for days and heading back towards the northeast..mike this is in no way a certain thing if you are a betting man..a landfall in mexico...im still sticking to my theory..it will get interesting when emily becomes stationary...weak steering currents in that part of the gulf mike plus the high over mexico right now..how long will that stay and will it block emily from coming on shore..lots to put in the equation mike..
Sorry wxweather - been looking at these awesome clouds here in Houston - storm is about break - shouldn't have my heads in the clouds so much!
105. Manny
Stormtop, you keep on making those predictions, one of them has to stick eventually, right?

I'm pretty sure that this storm is going to hit mexico south of the border and dissapate rather quickly. It's really ragged right now, and there's nothing to say that it's going to do what you're saying other than "you've seen it before"

EmmyRose, just watched some storms roll into downtown Houston from the southeast from the 37th floor! I love watching the radar and looking out the window and confirming what I see. Fascinating..

Stormtop, what is your theory at this point that you are sticking to?

Things to keep in mind:Dennis and Emily are july storms,and both reached CAT4..both set records for early major storms,forcasting earlier season storms is way different from late AUG thru OCT...the fronts and mid lattitude cyclones dont have the influence they do in late summer and early spring. So with less data(less early cat 3s) climatology aspect lacks cant base it as much on past latter season cat3s...my opinion.
Rhindle - The clouds are incredible today - and you're on the 37th floor that must be awesome
And I agree Manny - these are July storms so it's not a been there done that, seen that, scenrario...
Def. a lesson in all of this -
only time will tell manny........the steering currents are very weak off the mexican coast...
If Emily clears the 25th parallel, points north of Brownsville are in trouble.... Notice I said IF...
Look on the bright side,we will have more climatology data for July storms after 2005 season:)
rhindle i think if the storm goes where its going ..it will slow down and eventually start moving in and erratic motion..i dont know if you remember hery who tracked back and forth across the east an west gulf for weeks...im just saying when they say mexico the steering currents are always weak there and many weak hurricanes like this one has come to a dead stop and tracked back towards the northeast i have seen this to many times......
correction HENRY
EmmyRose - The clouds are incredible today for sure. It's so cool to see where it is raining miles away and looking at the radar and seeing it. :) And the lightning strikes are awesome! Not to those where it strikes near of course, but very cool to observe from up high. Right now I can see it is pouring west of 45 south near Hobby, but dry downtown.

Emily is looking pretty ragged, it will be interesting to see how she recovers and how much. Although I do not want the devestation of a hurricane to occur in Houston I really want to experience one! I was 12 when Alicia came through and I was in the woods in Tomball. It's weird to want to see and experience a hurricane, but at the same time of course you don't want your city to be hit... ;)
emily is looking very disorganized now...i wouldnt be surprised if they down grade her to a trpical storm in the next advisory..
I hear you Stormtop and I know what you mean. Interesting how unique this situation is with it only being July. Time will tell of course... I think it will be interesting.
rhindle only way to expiernce one is go through the eye wall. I punched Fredreric (79) right square in the eye ,he kicked back put 3 ,4ft. dia. pines through my roof...careful what you wish for.
Emily, in my opinion, has been becomming better organized with each satellite pic that comes in... In addition, I am noticing her more NW motion that occurs during the afternoon...
Rhindle - I still have Alicia's winds in my ears. one doesn't forget that sound - ever
I will make you a tape of hurricane howls and place it outside your window (not the 37th floor one)
I do believe that would be much better
Houston is NOT equipt for anything over Cat. 1 - remember TD Allison???? We couldn't stand up to that one -
Yup, I know... that's what makes it so weird. I was 12 when Alicia came though and I was running around outside (we were at least 100 miles inland) and the top of a big pine tree snapped off and fell about 25ft away from me. Scary, but facinating... ;)
you right about that once you been through camille you never forget that sound its like a thousand tonadoes coming at you at one time...i hope to god i never hear nothing like that again.......
Hahahaha a hurricane wind tape would be great! heheh

Yea, Allison was something else. I've never seen flooding like that before in Houston and hope I never do again. Fortunately the Sugar Land area where I live wasn't hit that hard. I remember the drive home from work that Friday evening... Turns out I was one of the lucky ones that made it home!
STORMTOP--you were in Miss. for Camille? Ugh! --candy

Do you see what I mean about guarantees?

And i would really like to see what happened in Cozumel. No pictures are out yet on any news sites. Has anyone else seen any? (I went there for vacation last December, would like to see if I recognize anything.)
remember this its tropical storms and weak hurricanes that give forecasters fits....these are not going to do what they are supposed to do and they stay around a lot longer..like z 21 said its a july storm and those are the worse to predict..
I think what amazed me the most was pine needles stuck three inches into trees and wood work of my house..all wind driven..they didn't break,imagine if ya got hit by them...
Wow. I've never heard of pine needles being stuck into trees or houses before! You saw this?? Man. That is nutz.
Rhindle - we got pounded on the Southwest Side of Houston how did Sugarland escape? I'll say it again, Houston is NOT prepared for even a severe thunderstorms let alone a hurricane...
Its going to be a weak hurricane. . the furthest north its going to go is by the TX/MX border.

I am kinda curious about this 6th storm. . must look into it.
EmmyRose - Well, we were certainly pounded that's for sure! I should have clarified that we weren't flooded out or anything. So many houses were flooded in Houston, but we luckily were not. I think Sugar Land got around 13 - 16 inches if I remember while other parts of town got 35 or more!
oh yes seen it twice,once after camille in 69 and once after frederic in 79...the north gulf coast region full of pines..had 9 in my yard before Frederic and 2 after.If you talk to people around and north of Punta Gorda they can tell ya the same happened after charly.
Looked into it. . i dont see anything.
the latest satellite pic looks like emily is gaining strength the eye wall is becoming more pronounced...i think this goe to cat 2 by next advisory...it also looks like its on a 300 heading now....
Doesnt look like much of an eye. . and moving almost due west to me.

Maybe stregthening to 80 mph. . thats my prediction. But no more.
Im sorry, due west is a bit extreme. .. a little north of due west.
yeah candy i was in gulfport...what a mess and a night mare
The Corpus Christi residents are nervous about this storm. We remember Celia in 1970...the town was almost leveled. The sound these storms make when passing over are hard to describe...scariest thing I ever experienced. IF this hurricane goes into Brownsville...how far out in miles would the tropical force winds be? Trying to decide whether or not to board up??
i think you need glasses if you think the storm is moving west...but to each is own....
lol just kidding punk but i see a 300 heading.........
I was in Frederic 1979. Most of the damage done by it was mini tornadoes. Estimates around 100 during the night. It was really amazing to see what a hurricane could do. I to saw the pine needles driven through brick, wood and block homes.
corpuswatch, I too am in the Sparkling City by the Sea and not worried at all; in fact Corpus has a < 1% chance of seeing a direct landfall... I would save the boards for the next storm...

Stormtop is correct (at least in my opinion)... the eyewall is becomming more pronounced and the heading, at least earlier this morning, was more to the north...however, the last few frames do show a more westerly track. Therefore I conclude the north jog was just a wobble while Emily found her glasses (or glass since it's only one eye).

Dittos to punkasshans on landfall, south of the TEX-MEX border but stronger than cat 1, probably a moderate cat 2...

Hope this eases your fears corpus..
25th parallel? WX...could you explain>
ping the last box...Trop Fcst Pts.
This has been amazing...it has been very accurate since I started watching it a few days ago. Right on target.
Certainly, IF Emily crosses the 25th parallel (or 25 degrees North), Emily will have found a major weakness in the ridge and a jog to the NNW would be likely before turning due west making landfall around Kingsville with worst affects being felt as far north as 60 miles (which includes Corpus)...

However, this "doomsday" scenario is extremely unlikely given the slight slow-down in forward speed and the more westerly track in the past few hours... To NHC's credit, they have been more on track the past few days with this storm and as far as I can tell, there is nothing coming down the pipe to alter their projected N-MEXICO landfall...
This is HIGHLY addicting...I will surely go through withdrawal when it is time to hit the road tonight.
we will see watcher i will feel better when the storm is 100 miles inland...i seen this happen to many times before with hurricanes going to mexico...its like they spit them back right at us...

I already have glasses. . sad eh?

Most of the models have it going far inland and almost coming back out the other side of Mexico. If it holds true, and some moisture moves into Tucson, at least they will finally get a break from their 100 degree days. (35 now in a row!)
yes that would be nice punk they really need the rain..
Looks like the eye has reformed over the past 2 hours
WX..Thanks for the explanation.
Wow, the eye really is trying to form again. Hard to believe with such a ragged system. You can actually see straight down through it again on the satelite pictures.
yeah zx21, '98 was a year that proved what hurricanes can do when they don't make a TX landfall...although it was not one but TWO and they came in along the Pacific side..
Galveston was just put on a Coastal Flooding warning
under the severe weather link. Am I reading this wrong?
EmmyRose Please post your link...
I do not have the Coastal warning stuff and I realy need it
I live inland just west of Brownsville
Watch actually. The watch states the possibility of high tides because of strong easterly winds (Emily).
the eye is looking ok..i think we have a strong cat 1 on the next advisory watcher...90mph..it still looks to me its on a 300 heading..
Still on NHC track however
Thanks corpuswatch
Dont you think it is strange that there has been so many pissing contests here when the
link has been right on target for the last two days?

Dr Masters...I do want to thank you for the interpretations and explainations...they have been fantastic

thanks corpus for the warning statement and thanks punk for the explanation
Last question for the day....*lies like a dog*
Is the 24 Hour Forecast NAM United States Surface Pressure map on link
historically accurate??
If it is...I am going to take up thumb sucking.
Everyone wants to predict correctly and be the one to prove the NHC wrong for once, sharonmarie. It is fun to try and make predictions.
Yes, there certainly have been some pretty radical predictions! The point forecasts on the floater IR are re-positioned every few hours (as they should be) -- so it's probably not a very good supporter for the NHC's tracking abilities. However, that being said, the NHC's multi-day predictions have been fantastic!
Gee raindancer so, *Anchorage* is out?
I can tell y'all I have learned so much these past couple of days - it's been terrific!
Raindancer...are you telling me that the floater IR changes its tracking with the storm??
Since that question sounds fairly stupid now that I have asked it...I will go one step further and finish this off by stating ...

Thats not very fair...now can we tell if it is accurate or not?
The NHC has been very efficient on tracking Emily, this is true. They were a bit questionable on Dennis, but Emily has been very consistent. Once it organized into a Hurricane I remember them having it going into the Yucatan and on to Mexico just as it seems it will do. They did really well.
They change it will the track of the storm so that people can become prepared. It only changes when they change the official forecast. You can tell how accurate they are by using their archived loops. Please go here:


Hope that helps

(however they do not update this daily, so it is slightly old.)
Well, it doesn't look like Emily's done much to recover in the latest update...
sharonmarie -- Much like punk said, yes the forecast points get updated as the new NHC updates come out. It's a short-term prediction tool that "should" be quite accurate in the near term.
I am so grateful that Emily appears to have decided to toss in the death and destruction towel.
I pray she stays ragged and weak and just blows in the sweetest of rain.
EmmyRose - Oh my goodness - yes, Anchorage is still right in there! Right behind the devastation in the Caymans and the landfall in Louisiana... LOL!
Thank you all for the links and information.
The time I have spent here has been very informative and enjoyable.
Dear Lorddoes this mean that I am attaining geekly characters?
Curious... Emily's outflow appears pretty decent, she's got a distinct eye, and convection is trying to fire up on the south side. Anyone think there's a chance of relatively explosive strengthening in the next 24 hours?
no...if I say it enough times...do you think it will make it come true??
Well, the NHC still predicts an upper cateogry 2 hurricane. . Thats a 30 mph increase in winds. So yet, a relatively explosive strengthening will likely occur.
We're geekly? *sigh* And I thought I was gathering cool scientific lingo to impress my friends -
well...my heads going back into the cloud readings -
That was meant to be "So yes." I need to slow down my typing.
Wow lots of posts since i was last here. Emily looks a lot healthier then before. I bet she will do a Dennis...and surprise us
Does a hole next to the eye (just south of the eye) mean anything?.,.is this a relocating eye??? Is there such a thing as a relocating eye?
Ok, I am down right confused... NHC at the 4PM advisory put the center at 22.3 N...

This satellite picture Link (click the storm to zoom in) gives coordinates where your mouse is...the center of the eye is at 22.5...

I dunno...
"Does a hole next to the eye (just south of the eye) mean anything?"

It is just a pocket of dry air that got pulled in from the Yucatan. This is very typical of hurricanes moving over land. The same thing happened to Dennis and it will take some time to mix the dry air out of the core.
Yes, eyes can relocate. . however I believe this is the real eye this time, only the beginning of its development.
Well, I guess i was confused. . .my bad.
Anybody see the TS on the other side of Mexico. Seems kinda wierd for a TS to form so high up in Latitude this early in the year in that part of the ocean or am i wrong?
wxwatcher..that link is 45 min old...NCH is only 25 min old. Maybe it changed in that time period???

This is the second storm at a latitude that far north this season. I do not know much about the Pacific, but if thats unusual I guess its normal for 2005. lol

Actually, the "eye" has adjusted north. Take a look at the 20:45 IR image with the forecast points turned on...
zx21... i realize that what you see is a NW movement...however....that will conflict with my plans for the next 48 hours.
...please call who ever is in charge here and have them lower that.
THank you very much
No moocrew you aren't wrong - it is unusual for this time of year, but than again, aren't we throwing "normal" out the window this season?
hang on *anchorage*
zx21 - You are correct - that with dead reckoning - Emily would indeed run right into south Texas. At this point, we (or the NHC) is relying on the models to make that curvature back to the west. This is when it always gets interesting -- to see if the models can predict a turn.
Yup - with that NW direct beeline -- in another 17 weeks Anchorage is doomed! You heard it hear first!

here is a link

Yea i guess you both are right this is a wierd year for cyclones. Makes you wonder what has changed? You have to wonder if the Hurricane forcast will be updated or altered to reflect the increased activity. Maybe when Emily is over Dr. Masters will address this more in his blog.
sharon, that picture has been updating about every 15 - 20 mins all day... it will update shortly and you'll see what I'm talking about..
in fact, sharon, it just did ... 2115UTC
Emmarose and raindancer....one of these days you are going to have to catch me up with "Anchorage"
wxwatcher...on the next update..am I looking for the location of the eye?

I do not believe that this is THAT abnormal. If it is, 3 in one month seems a bit extreme.

But like EmmyRose said. . this is 2005
Thanks punkass very interesting.
punkasshans That link to DORA was fantastic...thanks
Just to note; this storm has traveled almost due NW during the past 4 DAYS, and turned more W during the past 4 NIGHTS... Look for a Westward turn in the next few hours...
Would a storm really change direction based on the time of day?
SharonMarie you asked what has changed? Does anyone here mention the *G* word or is that not the correct answer?
(global warming???) Please don't all yell at me at once...if this is NOT the correct answer...
The convection around Emily's now large, ragged eye is increasing quite a bit now.
EmmyRose...I believe there is a price to pay for burning fossil fuels like there is no tomorrow. Since a Lancer is all I can afford and a Hummer is out of the question.I feel justified in slamming people who have bigger vehicles than I do.
There is a price to pay for poisoning our environment. Maybe the G word is the price...
Hawkeyewx...Does this mean you think it is strengthening or weakening...or just an observation of the eye?
Wow the last update really telling the story. Hard to believe really. The storm looks healthier but when you look at the numbers she is looking pretty tired. Guess the yucatan is a Hurricane killer.
call me crazy but the last frame of the satellite shows almost a due north turn
i aim to please
beaumont, i think that is because the eye is 'opening' to the north, the overall general storm direction remains wnw, agruably nw. If it is a north jog, consider it a wobble that will not affect it's track...
thanks for the clarifications....just a concern
"Hawkeyewx...Does this mean you think it is strengthening or weakening...or just an observation of the eye?"

When Dennis got back over the water and the convection began increasing like this, the pressure still only fell very slowly for many hours. No moderate to rapid strengthening can occur until deep convection wraps all the way around the eye and the core tightens up a bit.
Well when i ask what has changed i mean in the more on the line of this year. When they came out with the Hurricane predictions i do belive they said 4 intense hurricanes right. Well we are almost to that point now in July. So what has changed that Dr. Gray didn't anticipate in his forcast that is now effecting things? Or maybe we will have a Hot start and cool down later in the season...be interesting to watch as this year progresses.
Yesterday...when Emily was still in the open water(and no where near me)...she was an awesome thing of beauty...but I am delighted to see her get craggy now. Funny how location is everything.
The 18z GFS does take Emily into land about 50 miles north of the 12z, not too far south of Brownsville.
This view has Emily going just a tad north of what was predicted.
I have a feeling that tads might add up
ya id say so.
This is intensity of hurricanes based on landfall...I guess STORMTOP was talking about Allen at some other point of its "life span", but at landfall, hurricane Camille (#2) was 909 mb....also,just a quick note on the winds of Camille, they were 190 unofficially, because this was the last reading that was gotten before the guage broke at Keesler AFB--from another site:"......Hurricane Camille is said to be the worst storm ever to hit mainland United States. With sustained winds in excess of 200 mph and tides over 20 feet, Hurricane Camille smashed into the Mississippi Gulf Coast on Sunday night, the 17th of August and continued its devastating path until the early hours of Monday, the 18th..." If a Hurricane Camille were to hit today in the developed areas of our coastline--even the MS Gulf Coast line, it would be unreal....like nothing anyone has seen...
WOAH!!!! Should have heard what the local wxman on TV in SCTexas just said, pretty interesting...I wouldn't start ringing the Crisis Klaxons in Brownsville yet, but would certainly keep a sharp eye on it!
I realize that most of you really know what you are talking about and looking at...but there sometimes is bliss in ignorance.
Right now I am very happy to be clueless about what I am looking at..cause it is starting to look scary again..or beautiful..depending on your location

wxwatcher...what did that weather man say?
The southwest inner edge of the storm is getting colder...I know that is not a good thing.
Well Dr. Neil Frank, our weather man in Houston said that Emily will be a CAT 3 by landfall and landfall will be in Mexico S. of Brownsville. Guess that ends that discussion
He's been here a long time in Houston and I tend to think he knows his stuff.
Very true MScane. Probably the closest thing to it is the tsunami that just hit the South Pacific. Good thing a Camille doesn't come along too often.
EmmyRose..my tv.. Satellite has been on the fritz all day...so I have not been able to pick up news from that source at all. Thanks
You can log onto: KHOU.COM
That's channel 11 where Dr. Neil Frank is at if you want to read what he has to say!
has the storm slowed down tremendously in the past 1 1/2 to 2 hours, or are my eyes finally telling me they have had enough?
yup, but that was expected. be interesting what the hunter comes out with when it goes through. As for the stall its hard to tell have to wait for a few more frames. She looking a lot more like herself though.
When is the hurr hunter next scheduled to run through the storm?
EmmaRose...thanks for the info
Remeber Charlie, went from a 1 to a 4 in eight hours and did a 'turn' when it reached the coast, catching a lot of people off guard...

Emma is still shooting to the north of the projections...If this is a wobble it is a long one
252. Fast5
Ok, so here is one question that is out in left field.
Have heard some talk about a Super Storm.
What if Emily & Eugene bumpped into each other, would they form into one storm?
Or, would a Trop. Wave bump into a Hurricane and form into one storm?
What is a Super Storm?
(ps, would have started a new blog on this, but I'm a newbie)

they will have an update at 8 for the hunter. My bet is she will be much improved storm. The northern track is hard to read since she seems to be slowing as well....next few sat frams will tell the tale.
zx21....do you know why the eye appears as it does right now...why does it look closed
Thanks, moocrew.
it looks like it just...puckered close
thanks...I needed that
i am driving north tonight but tomorrow afternoon I have to drive back into this mess. I was really wishing this storm would just go south
i dont understand whats with the models, its possible it could go into Mexico but not the mostlikely situation.
so far the model that I have been watching at NOAA floater has been very on target. tiny wobbles but not much
models are out to lunch and NHC trak is also,but I could be wrong as always these things are unperdictable to an extent, as I always emphasise
Sharon, I have no clue what you are watching but Emily is definetly north of the forecast plots...
If you go to http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
you can see that the eye is trying to close off to much tighter circle.

I think this one of the coolest views I've ever seen. You can see a strong generation of t'storms on the western edge of the eye which is sending higher clouds South generating and sending the higher clouds into it's rapidly developing CDO. The last couple of frames has suggested that this generation is begining to wrap around the southern eyewall.
well its a good fight,the high pressure north of emily punched her in the eye.Now emily is fighting back.looking at data bouy reports pressures are again dropping in gulf so maybe that kick back between the legs by emily to that high pressure weakened it...lets see who connects next...LOL...
I agree north of forecast plots. Don't know if its a trend or a jog. All I know is that it will be awefully wet in southern Texas (even if it isn't a direct hit).
and the site just posted by weatherwonderer are the two I have been watching...it is going just a little north of what they projected..but just a touch north.
New update in... Still a weak Cat 1, but trying to organize...
ps..if ignorance was money I would be rich...I know next to nothing about weather...I am just figuring it out as I go along here...*student for sure*
NHC is way off on their 7 PM advisory!!! Go to the 22.6 91.5 coordinate on that sat link i provided earlier and see where your mouse is!! it aint over the eye!
Nearly due south to north winds in the upper levels over south Texas is going to be the key folks!!
Actually, I think the problem is the appearance of the eye... I suspect the true eye is on the south side -- and is simply open to the north -- making it look like the storm is further north.
Pressure down a smidge to 982 mb. Here is an interesting contrast from the hurr. hunter report:

MAX FL WIND 66 KT NW QUAD 23:25:30 Z

Isn't 66 knots at flight level approx. 60-65 mph at surface?

Yes but 982 mb is close to the bottom of the pressure range for a Cat 1--with the improving sattelite signature, and a pressure as low as that, they are not going to lower the winds to a tropical storm--besides they may not have sampled the highest winds in Emily
This from the local NWS discussion in Houston this afternoon:

Building upper ridge over North Texas as shown
by previous model runs may not be as strong if the latest GFS is
StSimons....you are right. That was the NW quadrant and the NE quadrant should have the highest winds. Do you know if they update the vortex message as they find new data?
OneDay, this link doesnt show upper air heights, but it does show pressure trends at the surface http://coolwx.com/usstats/pchstats.php

Also this shows a pressure movie for the US--but you have to take dirunal variations into account. This movie is a megabyte hog, so not recommended for dial up.
raindancer is right, on the IR loop over the last several hours the low level vortex is visible on the south side of the open "eye" area, so a couple points... 1. the low and mid-level centers may not have been perfectly stacked in recent hours, and 2. a few pockets of dry air may have been playing some tricks on us with regard to eye placement
OneDay, they will update every hour and a half or so while in the storm and make 4 passes into the eye. So 3 more updates, and then a break for several hours while waiting for the next flight in (unless they decide to send an immediate follow up) They usually wait 6 hours or so before data readings from the eye are taken again after a series
This also from the same NWS discussion:

For the latter part of forecast
package...upper ridge center will shift to southeast Continental U.S. Resulting in a
deep southeast flow over our region.

"the latter part of forecast" refers to days 4 and 5, I believe. Big, morbid, unlikely, what if here....what if the ridge shifted SE earlier, the ridge is not as strong as thought, the weak trof of low pressure in S TX gets stronger, and Emily stalls for a day....(I guess that is why SE TX coast is shaded in orange on the Strike probability map.)
and what is obvious zx21?
Thank you very much, StSimons. Good info.
hmm Im think the report came from northeast eyewall instead of the southwest where all deep convection is occuring, if the storm can fight off the dry air than I think it should rapidly deepen based on the deep convection, a new eyewall quickly organizing and favorable warm waters and a strengthing anticyclone aloft
Welcome OneDay. Off for an hour
StSimon...that site just made it into my favorites...thank you.
Whoa...big slide to the west shown on Satellite from 6:40 pm to 7:10 pm CDT.
The big slide to the left may be optical illusion on the visible sat because the sun angle is rapidly shifting this time of day. That coupled with a rapid eye-wall and concurrent CDO expension are adding to the effect. It looks like the overall direction is still more WNW-NW. Almost on a dead line to Brownsville.
Just keep her away from Houston
Brownsville does not sound like such a hot idea either
297. txtim
Looks like Brownsville or more north, maybe Port Mansfield, not a whole lot of population north of BV/SPI, just us fishermen!
I believe Emily will have a "true" eye wihin an hour. The visible sat is most impressive. Looking at the Gulf IR though, it looks like a race between the Hurricane and The High Ridge out to the East. The high is already affecting Emily's outflow. How close does it have to be before the Hurricane gets forced West?
Star shape as in the LONE STAR STATE?
Now that's personalized service
Thats cool, I've been thinking about getting my 32" HD tv hooked up to the computer. You may have given me the final inspiration to do it. These images would be awesome on a larger screen!
A. 19/01:22:40Z
H. 983 mb
P. AF308 1805A EMILY OB 10
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 01:11:10 Z
hmm latest NHC trak has shifted a little north more towards in agreement of my forecast interesting... TWC gets updates first before anyone and they show that the NHC has shifted their track a little more towards the north, Ilike how the the weather channel leaves out center in the cone im surprised they're the only ones yet.
yep they did
Okay, good, I'm not going crazy.
yup every post that the texans were saying...and my humor about them...the weather channel post
Emily have now winds of 90 KT, 87MPH aprox... 140km/hr, Hurricane hunter reports.
pressure is not really falling though.
This just in....Emily has surprised everyone again...she has hit Ann Arbor, MI and taken out Wunderground HQ.

ha, ha.
my scenario for the upper texas coast is starting to look better all the time...emily is stronger then the high right now and i think the low is starting to affect emilys movement and sloe her down like i said earlier..you hear that raindancer...the storm is due east of la pesca...like isaid the computers have taken one hell of a lunch...
all our computers are probably being monitored by the dept of homeland security because we are on a terrorist website (weather underground) joking :)
Only terrorist is EMILY!!
watch them jokes....LOL that what we were doing with the texans...lol I mean they were upset a certain channel was not there,so we joked...should they not be allowed to vent and have a sense of humor before they may face a hurricane????...I question that censorship....but who am I?
We are makin' history. We are sharing data in real time on a blog. We need a chat room!!!
Okay...I've had enough. STORMTOP, please, for the love of everything sacred, give us some scientific reasons why your "scenario for the upper texas coast is starting to look better all the time." And your data has got to be so overwhelming that it completely negates the consistently correct projection of the NHC during this storm, not to mention the forecasts of Dr. Jeff and Mr. Gregory.
or tell bush it's a sign of global warming and he will claim it isn't there :)
LOL rod, ...

yeah, us Texas get awfully mad when we ain't covered by THE WEATHER CHANNEL!!!!
What about MDW!!!

Bush must be bombing Emily. Its a MDW!!!

I will tuned w/ CNN watching the shock and awe tomorrow night near texas.
Check this.

Internal server from Hurricane Hunter Data in real time!

Clic here!
headed to Crawford as we speak - hey forget *Anchorage*
See, I'm a Texan so I can talk about my State -
It's so hot outside tonight my sweat is sweating
ok one day look at the satellite pics and the water vapor charts...the low west of emily shows up quite well and is affecting her movement and causing her to slow down in speed...she is due east of la pesca right now which proves to me emily is moving on a straight 300 heading ...this is bad for upper texas coast because the pressures are falling in the central gulf and that does not look to good for texas...the storm also has come to a majoer slow down in the last 30 minutes...emily will stay longer over water and hit the middle to upper texas coast......
Yes and in real time I NEED PICTURES RodrigO
(remember I'm a Texan)
Please decipher
K. - Yall can laugh at me - but I feel better now. Jim Cantori is in S. Padre. Equal Opportunity coverage.
definite west almost arguably southwest motion last few hours...
lol native tx...we didnt laugh at ya....lol they censored you...
I've been concerned because we were so dry here where I am and then the last week or so - It's rained every day. Coming up from the Gulf. I'm no expert - but that's been my question all along - If moisture is being pulled from the gulf - what's keeping it from pulling Emily up?
Yep, looks about 50 miles South of Brownsville right now. Probably have to wait a couple of hours to see if this change in direction is for real or a jog. Right now the NHC looks pretty close. Nevertheless, it is fun to see others conjectures otherwise, we may as well wait for the next NHC update. Go ahead and go out on limb, who knows, you may end up being right! :)
I wonder if they'll send Jim Cantori into Mexico?
oh!! About that censorship - I wondered what happened to my post. I saw it there then it just disappeared! So much for the 1st amendment...
the storm is not going west and i dont appreciate mike what you said...you are very stupid indeed if you think this secnario cant happen...i have been forecasting hurricanes for over 30 years punk and im not no kid...last night you were agreeing with me mike now you are agreeing with the computers...you sure sound like a kid my friend and a pretty dumb one at that..
I agree NativeTX....i am baffled by that as well...why is emily not moving north? Although i can sigh relief tonight...and sleep well...unless my wife goes into labor.
Hell, even the models have many inconsistancies.
Even the inconsistancies are inconsistant

slowed down to 15 mph...still WNW
Satellite loop:


Water Vapor loop:


Where is the low W of Emily? Emily looks to be moving along just slightly N of W at about the same rate as she has been for the past day. How can a single plot point (due east of La Pesca) prove a motion? (She could be moving SE and at some point be E of La Pesca.) The pressures are falling in the central gulf because of 1) normal diurnal cycle and 2) a hurricane has been moving in all day. And again, I do not see the "major slowdown" you are talking about.

Is anyone else seeing what STORMTOP is seeing?
It's not coming to Houston because as I have learned the High beat Emily and it's keeping it South - well, that's what I've learned so far - it will ram into Brownsville or around there. I've learned so much I want to thank everyone.
And yes, Houston has had storms every day so it would seem the low could have moved it up here. Am I rambling?
Brownsville is not out of the woods by any stretch.
lets ask mike about those great models......tell us mike what your thinking is ..i would be real interested to know how your brain thinks if you have one......
Latest update from the NHC 90 mph sustained winds pressure steady at 983mb wnw at 15 and that means more strengthening with that slower movement
StormTop and Michael STOP IT -
we're all enjoying and sharing -
Don't make me send you to time out

I agree weatherwonder Brownsville is not out of the woods

I have watched all the data bouys all day,they rose most of the day .some closer to storm stayed even in afternoon or dropped a little. At night the pressure always drops(diurnal as oneday spoke of).So what I see is that ridge is persistant and Emily will stay wnw...she tried moving NW off the pennisula but when she embedded in the high pressure she lost strength.The interaction with land sent her NW but she could not hold it ..
the argumentum ad hominem may not be valid, but it sure is fun, lol (refering to a certain poster)
Nevermind, you all already got him...sorry, the post took a little longer to type then I expected.
I dunno about that Brownsville not out of the woods comment. Ever been there? Save for a few scrawny palm trees there aint any woods at Brownsville. So I would say Brownsville is completely out of the woods:)
No need for name calling on here, bottom line is there is a hurricane out there and until it hits landfall, anyone's guess and as good as anothers... whether you think Houston or Tampico, it can strike anywhere in between...!

That being said, quit trying to compare satellite images that are 15-30 minutes apart; cant you people see everyone is arguing and ringing the crisis klaxons over nothing... Granted, the northward motion all day put all of us edge, then again, it has been moving more north during the day and more west at night -- translation? a WNW track! Things can and do change, let's come to a consensus and agree that NHC is probably correct... If they thought it would make landfall near Brownsville, why didn't any hurricane warning go up for Brownsville and points just northward??

Give it a break, everyone is beating Emily so bad even she doesn't know where she wants to go!!
Just heard on Fox26 News that the NHC has changed the forcast path a little south of where it was.
Sigate!!!! - (Ancient Greek St.simonIslandguy)
Why the bickering>? how about everyone just play nice..don't make me call your mom's.
I have kept an eye on this storm and read this site most of the day. I just don't see how this thing is gonna just go west into mexico. Maybe i am not seeing what I should be seeing. Could someone please fill me in. I have seen all those loops on the satellite pics and then saw the path verification model here on this site. Doesn't make a bit of sense to me. HELP
Okay lets say that brownsville is not out of the cactus yet
After all of this, I can see why she wouldnt want to come to Tx.
Hey, everyone, check out the cumulative wind map...now that's impressive.
there showing pictures of cancun on channel 11 now
I have one interesting scenrio which may help StormTop. Right now looking at the N. Atl. loop. It appears that a cold front has been trying to push South on the ridge and it is being sqeezed by a weakness to the South. If the ridge is compressed enough Southward, it may actually push Emily in more Northly direction, not West. How knows. I like trying to figure this thing out myself. Thats why I'm not into bashing but having alittle fun with it. Its amazing how many variables must be taken into account for predicting strength and direction of these things.
lol yes its crazy when you think we are fighting over a storm watcher..who really cares where it goes.......there is nothing we can do about it so why worry about it...sorry mike but thats my opinion like it or not...i respect your and everyones opinion on here..thanks watcher..
*chortles* I am surprised the pressure has not been falling, it has been 983/984 mb all day, and Emily was much more ragged @ lunchtime
Ok Brownsville is not out of the cactus yet. I can buy that.
Okay explain that - anyone I mean about the pressure not falling
I can't explain it-- central pressure has been flat all day despite increasing organization in the core--just seems odd to me.
Okay I'm going to float this out there - has anyone heard the term "witches tails?" They preceed major storms...
Looks like it is still trying to stabilize an eye-wall. CDO is starting to wrap around but it isn't as cold as it used to be.
the reason it's going to go into mexico and not Texas is simple. Louisiana blows and mexico sucks....Texas is spared.

SXXX50 KNHC 190314
0304. 2315N 09234W 03047 0022 061 056 090 090 059 03120 0000000100
0305 2316N 09235W 03049 0031 050 055 108 108 056 03131 0000000000
0305. 2317N 09237W 03048 0036 051 054 120 110 057 03135 0000000000
0306 2319N 09238W 03048 0042 053 052 118 100 054 03141 0000000000
0306. 2320N 09240W 03048 0046 055 053 118 094 055 03145 0000000000
Thats significant, from the last report. Maybe thats why the CDO is getting more organized around the eye area.
when does the next discussion come out at the NHC?
4 central...latest was 10 central

they just released one with the 11 EST update
If it strengthens that fast we should see the CDO get colder soon and it may be really trying to organize now.
Texas is spared because we're too dang ornary
Here are the archives so you can see what to expect and when: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/refresh/EMILY+shtml/024006.shtml?

Have we somewhat kind of agreed half heartedly at least maybe landfall will be around brownsville?
when you say around brownsville do you mean within 50 miles? if so, yes
I think our time is near EmmyRose... Alicia was 22 years ago. Hard to believe its been that long since a hurricane has hit Houston directly (not counting TS Allison of course). It's only a matter of time... ;)
I still think Emily will stay pretty well to the south--but have no real rational basis for it, just intuition. My forcast for Dennis was off badly.

And with that, night y'all!
rhindle..frederick...last major in Mobile area 1979...then boom 25 years later along comes Ivan...lol followed by dennis.....will you get back to backs?...
Yes Rhindle but Emily is not going to be it :-)
Maybe next year - hey it could be EmmaRose
Do they give hurricanes Southern names?
Like LeeBob or BillyJoe?
I'll send you the howling hurricane tape from hell
if that's what you really want LOL
AF308 1805A EMILY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 01:11:10 Z


Proof that you never can tell!!
umm neither dennis or ivan made landfall in mobile both were officially in florida,yes they came close unless thats what you mean to begin with.
No Outrocket you can have that award of back to back

Hehe, yea EmmaRose I don't have any reason to believe Emily will be the one that's for sure. I get like this every year... thinking THIS is going to be the year Houston gets hit again. Maybe we'll have some breathing room since Allison. But after what outrocket just reminded me of there is no such thing as breathing room but just the luck of the draw. ;)
Sorry about that last post. My son did that. I sent him to bed now. Again, I apologize.
lol@emmy rose......im sticking to my prediction the upper texas coast......we will see what happens..i have a feeling there will not be a landfall for quite a few days with emily...you can rest easy for now emmy rose......goodnight all......
hurricane buford! cat 5 biggest hurricane ever,that woud be strange,because buford is the southern term for big and strong.
jed..correct...but wrong on IVAN...land fall was orange beach area...that was Bama..It first skirted gulf shores and went inland at Orange beach then crossed into fl..
Jedkins you are incorrect. Yes Dennis made landfall in Florida but Ivan made landfall in Gulf Shores, Alabama. I was outside in the eye as it came over. Thanks.
For people that understand in spanish

we got lucky on Ivan..it passed just south of mobile county we got in north eyewall we had 80mph wind higher gust...
Heh, stormtop isn't giving up on the upper Texas coast! I'll be here waiting...
WAIT STORMTOP should I not open my theatre tomorrow night
I can't tell you how Im sitting here trying to decide whether to cancel show
omg i was in tennessee traveling up north to see my relatives and the NWS has a section for severe weather safety that says timmy the twister says click here!!! and on top of that it had a smiley face,I mean WTH siriously its not supposed to be a day care for 4-year-olds its the NWS website.I figured i had to post this because its so kidsy and stupid,any comments?
EmmyRose, LOL!
I don't know whether Emily is stronger or not, but the time stamp on the Vortex Data Message wind was 0110z, the time stamp on the other report was 0305z
emmy rose you can relax for a few days i say if my prediction comes true the landfall will be late thursday night or friday morning...i hop that helps emmy rose........good night all it should be and interesting night......
Now that was a ride,I was in south mobile county for Ivan we hated it for you over in gulf shoars we got a lil preview of it before her matneee there. Nothing like that eye wall,I remember fredric's all too well,bet it was a sight at gulf shoars at landfall.
siriously i want to know what yall got to say bout my latest post read it.
Yes I do have a southern voice -
thank you sir for asking - :-)
Just curious....does a full moon have an effect on a hurricane...intensity and/or direction?

Any one ????
WELL i looks like its time for me to call er quits for the night,good night yall.
Now did you see this in Tennessee or Up north for yankees?
LOL - it does sound like a children's site to me
Timmy the Twister huh?
Did it have Bobby the Blizzard?
Everyone's goin to sleep who's going to watch the hurricane?
full moon has an effect on the tides,,,,,and hurricanes effect tides...so indirectly you could say so...
they say it's southern sultry - what can I say?
Well thank goodness someone will be on the watch -
I dont sleep too. I have a blog in spanish w/ 2,500 visitors per day... So I cant... Isn't joke. Hehehe.. Mexican meteorological service its very very very bad!!
muy malo?
okay here's the "latest" weather - Emily will stay way to the south of Houston - coastal flooding beginning late tomorrow night/Wednesday morning. Chance of rain - but temps in the 90's - doesnt sound like a hurricane to me
Yeah.. Data is broadcasted 2 or 3 hours later that the NHC
now this is nice set of blogs.
But they seem so adamant about it going to Brownsville
The way they're going on is like there is no room for error
Well...we shall see I guess
does it seem like movement is slowing rapidly...seems to be slower than 15 mph....looks almost stationary...
Yea. Others you know... but these yea
So is Emily playing out or what? Been out awhile
Slow movers are the best. Now, oh Em has done some crazy things, so slowing and thinking is not off target.
Does anyone remember the famous Roxanne who tried to spell her name in the Gulf a few years back? She made the infamous "R" before deciding where she went... Shows yall how tricky these storms can be..
Ok....im not understanding this....if you look at satelite in motion over central texas to north easter texas...the cloud movement is going northeast....coming out of MEXICO going norhteast over texas...would this not get emily caught up in it and pull her more north possibly ne...maybe causing her to skirt the tx coast...esp if she slows down?
I was just thinking once Emily goes into whereever
we better find another hurricane to fight over
But this being 2005, one will appear I'm sure
very soon....
Emily has stalled
one thing for sur she has a large circulation.
oops...nevermind...i forgot to animate the loop..my bad
Beaumont the HIGH is pushing her supposedly to South Texas
Is your baby going to be named Emily? I know when ALLISON was here there were people naming their babies that
Odds on a CAT 5 this year?
no....its a boy....Caleb...i think if no hurricane...the full moon will have an effect...i call thursday as his date of birth...
Caleb is an excellent name. Strong.
beaumont...i'll guess friday morning between 9:30 and 9:50AM and between 7.4 and 7.9 pounds
just a gut chubri??? or you have basis for your prediction?
zx21 - saw a report awhile back that said the Alantic zone has changed somewhat to a point that we in the gulf would see more.
Love the name Caleb - yep, money is on Thursday full moon
and with the barometer falling (supposedly)
I say 8 pounder
check out the pressure contours on the goes 1 floater from nhc, MSLP (2) box... the pressure has increased SIGNIFICANTLY and Emily is treking to the west...
West you say as in Mexico?
I thought my eyes were playing tricks. Sur does look west to me. And the bouys are all coming up in pressure.
beaumont74 - May the labor be short and the baby healthy. Now we all know you will be there the whole time.
Good night ya'll. I got work tomorrow.
well the pressure tends to rise at night, that's why emily tracks west at night, during the day the pressures tend to let up allowing her to turn more north...however

in the past 4-6 hours the pressure contours have shifted dramatically west, I say Brownsville is definintely cleared...will only get a brush of TS winds..
Night y'all - catch ya manana - great time tonight!!!
She keeps warming up and then cooling down...reminds of some people I know. Looks like she is slowly cooling down again after warming up quite a lot. Her intensity is crazier by far then her direction. Probably be a Cat. 5 going up the Mississipi river and snmashing Cairo, Il. That would be one for the records.
Looks like Mexico about 100 miles South of Brownsville and that may be to far North. Only question is the intensity. I don't really see her stalling. This has been both an informative and entertaining blog. Probably be lots more of them by the time the seasons over, hell by then, we will all be experts.
saorry if I scared you all away. Guess it is getting late. I am goinf to turn in about 10 minutes. One question I have. Do any of you have idea how deep the warm water is in Emily's path. Could that be playing a role in her fluctuating appearence?
According to Mr. Gregory, yes. He has become quite a proponent of total oceanic heat content vs. just SSTs after Dennis weakened so rapidly just before landfall.
984mb/90kts at 0434z, holding the same.
And unfortunately, no, I do not know how deep the water is. I read a few days ago (in Mr. Gregory's blog) that the warm water in the western gulf is only a couple of feet deep.
Well, nevermind, I guess I did know....boy, it's getting late.......
Yeah, I'm listen to George Noony on the internet "Coast to Coast" broadcast.I'll be switching to listening to it on the radio in a few moments. I have to admit I love the radio show too bad it starts so late at night. Looks like Emily will be here tomorrow night. Who knows she still might have a surprise or two left. Good Night all.
Weather wonder did you ever listen when Art was doing the show? Used to be addicted to that show...much like i'm getting addicted to this site...
still up, yeah I listened to Art probably about the same time you did (zx21). Maybe slightly earlier, I was really upset when he quit. Now he's back again on the weekends but he is going to only host on Sundays starting now. George is actually quite good too. Different personality but very good.
well be interesting to see what happens to emily in the next few hours...i guess it is time for sleep
I posted George Noony (totally different beast), I meant George Noory.
its been awhile since i've listen to that show though. Just don't stay up late like i used too. Man that show had me glued some nights...would go into work with just a few hours of sleep.
well i'll have to give it a listen one night. well goodnight
My age is 14-18(not telling exact because of internet security resons)but age means nothing to me,I do not care about my age it has nothing to do with my knowledge of weather,credibility or maturity as I said do not let my age fool you.
I rekon this storm is following the NHC trak pretty good based on radar imagery