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Eleven deaths in tornado outbreak; new tornado outbreak likely Friday

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2012

The winter of 2012 blew out like a lion yesterday, with a massive Leap Day storm that pounded the Midwest with deadly tornadoes and heavy snow. A violent EF-4 tornado with 180 mph winds tore through Harrisburg, Illinois at 4:56 am CST yesterday morning, killing six, injuring approximately 100, and damaging 200 homes and 25 businesses. The tornado cut a path seven miles long and 250 yards wide across the town, according to the NWS damage survey. Another person was killed in southwest Missouri near Buffalo when am EF-2 tornado ripped through a mobile home park late Wednesday night. Twelve others were injured in the mobile home park. Four additional deaths occurred due to tornadoes in Cassville, MO, Smithville, TN, and Monterey, TN yesterday, bringing the death toll of the two-day severe weather outbreak to eleven. An EF-2 tornado also plowed through downtown Branson, Missouri yesterday morning, injuring 33 people. The tornado blew out or cracked windows in 219 of the hotel rooms in the 12-story/295 room Hilton Branson Convention Center, and extensively damaged three of Branson’s 50 plus theaters--Americana Theater, Branson Variety Theater and Dick Clarks’ American Bandstand Theater. The Branson Landing on Lake Taneycomo and the Veterans Memorial Museum were also heavily damaged. An NWS storm survey found the tornado was 400 yards wide and carved a path 22 miles long. An EF-2 tornado also hit the small town of Harveyville, Kansas (population 275), twenty miles southwest of Topeka, at 9:03 pm Wednesday night. The tornado destroyed 40 - 60% of the structures and injured twelve, three critically. Overall, damage from the two-day tornado outbreak will run in the hundreds of millions of dollars, and could add up to be the first billion-dollar weather disaster of 2012 in the U.S.


Figure 1. Damage in Branson, Missouri after yesterday's tornado. Image credit: BransonRecovery Facebook page.

Yesterday's tornado outbreak's place in history
Yesterday was the deadliest day for U.S. tornadoes since May 24, 2011, when 18 people died in a Midwest tornado outbreak--part of the five-day outbreak that brought the deadliest U.S. tornado since 1947, the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado, which killed 158 people and injured 1150. The preliminary tornado total from February 28 - 29 of 2012 is 30, making it the largest February tornado outbreak since February 17 - 18, 2008, when 31 twisters touched down. Yesterday's Harrisburg, Illinois tornado was the deadliest February tornado since the February 10, 2009 EF-4 twister that struck Southern Oklahoma near Ardmore, killing eight. The deadliest February tornado in recorded history occurred on February 21, 1971, when an F-4 tornado ripped a 202-mile path through Mississippi, killing 58 people.


Figure 2. By analyzing both the rotational velocity of the storm systems (the spinning of tornadoes has high rotational velocity compared to the surrounding storms) and presence of hail, scientists at the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a product that approximates the track of tornadoes, shown here for the February 29, 2012 storms. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory.

Violent tornadoes in February: a rarity
Violent February tornadoes are rare in February. The Tornado History Project lists eighteen EF-4 and one EF-5 tornadoes in the U.S. during the month of February since 1950--an average of one violent February tornado every three years. Part of the reason for this is the lack of warm, unstable air so early in the year. However, this year's unusually mild winter has led to ocean temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico that are approximately 1°C above average--among the top ten warmest values on record, going back to the 1800s. Averaged over the month of February, the highest sea surface temperatures on record in the Gulf between 20 - 30°N, 85 - 95°W occurred in 2002, when the waters were 1.34°C above average. Yesterday's tornado outbreak was fueled, in part, by high instability created by unusually warm, moist air flowing north from the Gulf of Mexico due to the high water temperatures there.

Heavy snow hits Upper Midwest
The same storm system also brought the heaviest snows of the winter to portions of the Upper Midwest, which has received scant snowfall this winter. Widespread heavy snow fell in northern Wisconsin, where Mincqua recorded 18 inches. South Dakota, Central Minnesota, and Michigan's Upper Peninsula also received snow amounts in excess of a foot. The storm also brought moderate snows to Northern New England, with southern Vermont receiving more than 8 inches. The latest NOAA Storm Summary has detailed storm total accumulation info.


Figure 3. Snowfall amounts for the 3-day period ending at 7 am local time Thursday, March 1, 2012. Image credit: NOAA Southern Region Headquarters.

New tornado outbreak likely on Friday
The storm system that brought yesterday's tornadoes and snow has moved into Canada and New England, and the threat of severe weather is minimal today in the Midwest. However, a new storm system is expected to form over Missouri early Friday and track northeastward, unleashing a new tornado outbreak over Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Mississippi, Indiana, and Ohio. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed this region in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather Friday, and is warning of the possibility of long-track significant tornadoes. Consult our Severe Weather Page and Interactive Tornado Page to follow the storms.


Figure 4. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and portions of surrounding states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather on Friday. This is one level below the highest level of alert, "High Risk."

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to the Harrisburg, Illinois tornado
Portlight is sending people into the Harrisburg, IL, area at this time in response to the tornado disaster there. They will be assessing needs there and surrounding areas. As usual, they will be focusing efforts on the un-served, under-served and forgotten. Please visit the Portlight Disaster Relief blog to learn more. Donations are always welcome!



Jeff Masters

Tornado Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

You don't see 8 out of 10 chance very often for a tornado, be safe out there for those in these areas. Nice and warm here in Texas, only drizzle around here past 2 weeks.
Quoting percylives:
Going to stick my neck out a bit as the center of the low pressure system generating all the weather appears to be heading NNE at this time, 0720 EST, into southern Canada. Though it is a strong system it just may be too far from the GOM to suck enough moisture north to generate a large outbreak of severe weather. This is no "Stand Down" notice but perhaps we can all relax a bit.

Trying to learn of these things.
actually this will help support more discrete super cells then line segments.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I am thinking high risk with 60% wind and 30% tornado from northern KY down to Northern MS/AL

You read my mind. I don't think the high risk zone would extend as far north as say Cinninati. I would definitely put central interior KY and TN and perhaps as far south as the north slither of MS and AL is the zone as well.

30% sounds fair. I don't think it would warrant a 45% as the April 27th outbreak of last year did along with the OK outbreak in May, but then again, who knows. I would go 30% though.
Awaiting the 1300Z update from the Storm Prediction Center to see if they upgrade. The 06Z NAM and RUC model back winds a lot more across Tennessee and Kentucky, which would lead to a greater tornado threat and ultimately a high risk.

We'll see...I would go with a 30% hatched tornado, 45% hatched wind and hail.

Categorical Outlook:



Tornado Outlook:



Wind Outlook:



Hail Outlook:

Quoting TampaSpin:
I am at home all day tomorrow....i will be posting Tornadao Warning as quickly as i can tomorrow....with the GR2Analyst program...as usually i can post a threat about 10 minutes before the NWS post a Warning...


Post them for I will be at work and away from my personal computer till about 4pm ct
Quoting KeyWestSun:

You read my mind. I don't think the high risk zone would extend as far north as say Cinninati. I would definitely put central interior KY and TN and perhaps as far south as the north slither of MS and AL is the zone as well.

30% sounds fair. I don't think it would warrant a 45% as the April 27th outbreak of last year did along with the OK outbreak in May, but then again, who knows. I would go 30% though.


last year warrented a 60% that was never issued, this year I could see it going 45% but not this early
I am very close to the 15 tornado (hatched) and 45 hail 45 wind, close to those hatched areas as well. Gonna be scary.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awaiting the 1300Z update from the Storm Prediction Center to see if they upgrade. The 06Z NAM and RUC model back winds a lot more across Tennessee and Kentucky, which would lead to a greater tornado threat and ultimately a high risk.

We'll see...I would go with a 30% hatched tornado, 45% hatched wind and hail.

Categorical Outlook:



Tornado Outlook:



Wind Outlook:



Hail Outlook:



Yea Im still feeling a high risk to be displayed Kentucky south through tennessee and maybe northern alabama
gee wiz the outbreak already started 0.o
Quoting SPLbeater:
gee wiz the outbreak already started 0.o


no that is the warm front.
Like an apppetizer to make you lose your appetite.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Awaiting the 1300Z update from the Storm Prediction Center to see if they upgrade to a High risk of Severe Weather. The 06Z NAM and RUC model back winds a lot more across Tennessee and Kentucky, which would lead to a greater tornado threat and ultimately a high risk.

We'll see..

Categorical Outlook:



Tornado Outlook:



Wind Outlook:



Hail Outlook:



I agree. With the new guidance in I would say that a hight rush area should be put on Kentucky and the surrounding areas. Looms like that area will be the focus of the worst activity today. I would guess that they will issue the PDS Tornado Watch sometime soon once they issue the next outlook and mesoscale discussion.
Quoting SPLbeater:
gee wiz the outbreak already started 0.o

Oh no....It will be much, much worse later today, after 2 PM EST.

This is pre-frontal activity.




Ugg that's too small, anyway I expect a high risk to be added from Huntsville to Cincinatti and Charleston to Louisville.

Pic looks better this way.



Link
Birmingham says supercells may or may not form this afternoon in peak heating far from the front but the models cannot agree.
come on models, you dont have much more time!
There has been a High Risk of Severe Weather issued!
HIGH RISK


but Nashville doesnt sound too worried:
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KOHX 021209 AAA
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
609 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THRU AT LEAST
03/02Z AT MOST TAF SITES...AND BELIEVE OVERALL BEST WINDOWS WILL BE
02/18Z-02/22Z CKV...02/19Z-02/23Z BNA...02/22Z-03/02Z CSV. HAVE
MENTIONED SFC GUSTS TO 50KTS AT THESE LOCATIONS DURING THESE TIME
PERIODS. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH W TO E AFTER 03/01Z-03/03Z...WITH
CEILING EROSIONS BETWEEN 03/05Z-03/07Z.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 412 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/ WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE. DEWPOINT
GRADIENT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH 36F AT BNA AND 62F AT HSV AT 2
AM. WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT PASSAGE.
THUS...A FEW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...PROG SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY DRY AIR FROM
700MB UPWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE...LOWER LEVELS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. WITH THE OVERALL AIRMASS DEPTH BEING
ON THE DRY SIDE...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEN...AS WE WARM UP...THE ADDED INSTABILITY WILL WORK IN FAVOR OF
MORE LINEAR AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE POSITIONING OF THE COLD
FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NASHVILLE AREA AROUND
7 OR 8 PM TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE FORCING WILL RESIDE A FEW HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FROPA. SUMMING THIS ALL TOGETHER...IT LOOKS TO ME AS THOUGH
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS MIDDLE TN THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN...COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAP BUSTS. MY POPS FOR TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM 50 ACROSS THE WEST TO 70 PLATEAU. I WILL LEAN
HEAVILY TOWARD ISC GRIDS AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH TEMPS EXPECTING TO WARM UP TO
NEAR 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE PLATEAU...INSTABILITIES IN
THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE QUITE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THE
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. FURTHERMORE...50-55 KT LOW LEVEL JET WITH
0-3KM HELICITY VALUES AROUND 250 - 300 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WILL THEREFORE INCLUDE THE MENTION OF
SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST...WITH AFT WORDING USED...LATE AFT/EARLY
EVE PLATEAU. VERY LOW LCL LEVELS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADIC
CONDITIONS.


AGAIN...AT THIS POINT IN TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL OCCUR FROM NOON-4PM WEST...2P-6P
CENTRAL...AND 4P-8P FOR THE EASTERN PLATEAU. SCT SEVERE CONVECTION
WEST...WITH LINEAR FORMATION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION ACROSS OUR EAST
AS WE GAIN ADDITIONAL HEATING.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There has been a High Risk of Severe Weather issued!


Yeah it has, just when i click it it still shows the old one lol... smaller area then I expected.

In other news, I am definitely in the Moderate Risk area now. 15 Tor (hatched area nearby), 45 Wind, 45 Hail, but the hatched wind/hail is far away from me now.
I am surprised it was not larger and a 60% wind was not put on there
Last time i seen a 30% tornado threat was April 16th.

Or, that was the last time i noticed xD
check this cool
Quoting SPLbeater:
Last time i seen a 30% tornado threat was April 16th.

Or, that was the last time i noticed xD


last april 27th there was a 45% risk
--SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LONG-TRACK/STRONG TORNADOES--

Categorical Outlook:

Wind Outlook:

Hail Outlook:

Tornado Outlook:
Oh boy!

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


last april 27th there was a 45% risk


0.o

i didnt notice lol
Could be 50 to 60 tornadoes easily today!
Quoting SPLbeater:
Last time i seen a 30% tornado threat was April 16th.

Or, that was the last time i noticed xD


WHat about april 27? they had a 45!!
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
707 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST

* AT 703 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF DAVIS...OR 14 MILES
NORTHWEST OF TROY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELSBERRY...EOLIA...BELLEVIEW...HARDIN...EDGEWOOD.. .WHITESIDE...NEW
HOPE...PAYNESVILLE...ANNADA...MOZIER...HAMBURG...M ICHAEL...
KAMPSVILLE AND BEECREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
Gee this is like hurricane season advisories. 3 poeple post the same thing :D that should get the message across, cant say u werent warned...=P
This is the risk for my area.

...MS/AL/GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
THE MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING. THIS AREA WILL REMAIN A LITTLE S OF
THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER FLOW...AND THE STRONGEST LLJ CORE WILL
DEVELOP NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER JET
STREAK AND SURFACE CYCLONE. STILL...INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN IN ONE OR MORE BANDS OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. RISKS WILL INCLUDE A FEW
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.
184
WOUS40 KWNS 020910
PWOSPC
ALZ000-GAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000- TNZ000-WVZ000-021800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
NORTHERN GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
KENTUCKY
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
SOUTHWEST OHIO
TENNESSEE
WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT...PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...WINDS AND ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA...SETTING THE STAGE FOR LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MOST DANGEROUS TORNADO RISK AREA IS EXPECTED FROM MIDDLE AND
EASTERN TENNESSEE NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY TO THE OHIO RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE A FEW LONG-TRACK/DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER SOUTH
INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab SPC Page

Main Text Page

It is interesting that the fact that there is not too much moisture will support more tornadoes with discrete cells. Just shows that too much of anything is not good,(except in this case too much moisture would be good for people)
536. MahFL
HIGH RISK area now.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


WHat about april 27? they had a 45!!


You know i nevere knew of th storm prediction center until i read Reed Timmer; Into The Storm and that was last late summer.

so i never noticed april, except in archives :)
I have some heavy rain coming..them maybe some thunderstorms if they can hold..
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


WHat about april 27? they had a 45!!

April 27th did have a 45%. So did the Oklahoma outbreak later that year in May.
TorCon:
KY central - 9

And here comes the sun:
Well D-day is officially here, lets see how this unfolds. The High risk, would make me think that it will not be a fun day. My best wished to those in the affected areas, I plan to get N out of Central Indiana before anything big goes down.
TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index

Updated: March 2, 2012 8:15 am ET
Friday March 2
AL north - 6
AL central night - 4
AR northeast - 3
GA north night - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 5
KY central - 9
KY west - 5
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast night - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 5
MS central night - 3
NC west night - 3
OH - 3
Southern OH - 4
TN north-central - 7
TN west - 4
TN east - 6
TN south-central - 6
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warning

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC021-029-035-049-139-173-021400-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0004.120302T1320Z-120302T1400Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
720 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN COLES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
WESTERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
EFFINGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHERN MOULTRIE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SHELBY COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 800 AM CST.

* AT 715 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL
SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF NOKOMIS TO 6 MILES NORTH OF RAMSEY TO BROWNSTOWN...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN AN INCH
IN DIAMETER.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...SULLIVAN...MATTOON...PAN A...COWDEN...
LAKEWOOD...ALTAMONT...TOWER HILL...BEECHER CITY...WESTERVELT...
WATSON...SHUMWAY...STEWARDSON...TEUTOPOLIS...FINDL AY...WINDSOR...
DIETERICH...MONTROSE AND NEOGA.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 57 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 149 AND 191.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3921 8881 3921 8913 3922 8914 3934 8914
3934 8928 3940 8934 3966 8849 3947 8826
3917 8833 3917 8836 3900 8836 3895 8881
TIME...MOT...LOC 1320Z 248DEG 49KT 3942 8922 3926 8904
3905 8894
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.50IN

$$

CHURCHILL
Althought not as bad as today Saturday Night across C & N FL could really be under the gun as a strong piece of energy rotates across the northern GULF. Main threat will be powerful straight lines winds, hail, and an isolated tornado.
The storm near Vandalia, IL needs to be watched.  It is riding the warm front and has maintained itself all the way from Rolla, MO.  It's been severe during most of its lifespan but I worry about this storm becoming tornadic soon.  It is beginning to show signs of weak rotation.









Golf Ball sized hail covering the ground!!!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
724 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

ILC013-149-MOC113-163-021400-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-120302T1400Z/
PIKE IL-CALHOUN IL-LINCOLN MO-PIKE MO-
724 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CALHOUN COUNTY
IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL
800 AM CST...

AT 720 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF ELSBERRY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
55 MPH.

SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND NEAR WHITESIDE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BELLEVIEW...MOZIER...HAMBURG...MICHAEL...KAMPSVILL E AND BEECREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3919 9060 3913 9089 3928 9098 3949 9063
TIME...MOT...LOC 1324Z 246DEG 47KT 3923 9082
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.75IN

$$
Quoting StormTracker2K:




In your picture you can clearly see the negative tilt.
Also a weak surface low may form in N MS/AL and enhance low level backing of winds increasing tornado threat, but the models are not sure about that either.
JNCali, can you send me the link to that aurora site.

Not to downplay the severity of this disaster, but talking about the worst storm in 2 or 3 years doesn't sound that bad. Saying how rare something is, then mentioning we have had several recently, means it isn't very rare to us. Like talking about sighting a purple gallinule, to someone that has had them in their back yard all their life. An Alligator in Florida vs. one in Alaska...OK, you get my drift.

Is this just the new normal.

Stay safe out there today. Prayers for those harmed.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


In your picture you can clearly see the negative tilt.
Also a weak surface low may form in N MS/AL and enhance low level backing of winds increasing tornado threat, but the models are not sure about that either.


could be a resurgence in severe wx late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Something to really watch.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
808 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ024-026-027-061-021330-
BRECKINRIDGE-BUTLER-GRAYSON-OHIO-
708 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...HALF
INCH HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS IN NORTHERN BUTLER COUNTY MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH...

AT 707 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES
OF AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE
MILE...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
MORGANTOWN...
LEITCHFIELD...
NEAFUS AND DOGWALK...
DO STOP AND CANEYVILLE...
POST AND PINE KNOB...
DUFF AND CONCORD...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 107 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT THE NATCHER PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27
AND 34.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3767 8649 3748 8625 3718 8672 3731 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1307Z 227DEG 45KT 3732 8670

$$

MP
A team of 6 GRLevel users will be posting WARNINGS AS WE SEE THEM....email my site if you want it link....
What a storm....


Good swath of 4-6 inches of snow for Moline, IA up through Milwaukee, WI, up into the UP of Michigan where over a foot is expected by tomorrow evening.


Quoting TampaSpin:
A team of 6 GRLevel users will be posting WARNINGS AS WE SEE THEM....email my site if you want it link....


Ill join in with posts after 4:00
Quoting TampaSpin:
A team of 6 GRLevel users will be posting WARNINGS AS WE SEE THEM....email my site if you want it link....


I'd imagine that it won't be a lot different on this site. We'll get 2-3 of the same warning texts posted and many wows for similar radar images and very little analysis beyond that :)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
What a storm....


Good swath of 4-6 inches of snow for Moline, IA up through Milwaukee, WI, up into the UP of Michigan where over a foot is expected by tomorrow evening.




Action:
Quote
| Ignore User


Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151


Probably going to be mostly a rain event for you. Although you are in the slight risk zone. At least the heaviest, worst activity will stay well to your south and east.
Good Morning everyone, gee an active storm day today for sure, I guess it will be Florida's turn saturday night into sunday with that strong cold front pushing down the state, hopefully without tornado's like the midwest is going thru today..well stay safe and have a great day everyone
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'd imagine that it won't be a lot different on this site. We'll get 2-3 of the same warning texts posted and many wows for similar radar images and very little analysis beyond that :)

Well if you think we are void of good analysis, feel free to drop in sometime and provide some of your own. ;-)


NAM EHI Values

hunker down midwesterners tonight it looks like floridians are going to have to wait till late summer
Quoting StormTracker2K:


NAM EHI Values



I have tried for the past two days to upload that graph of the tornado sig parameters and have failed everytime, a print screen copy and paste in paint wouldnt even work... you have to share your secret..
Notice the enhancement across N & C FL Saturday Night.



Here's the energy here.
Fewer tornadoes for my area, good thing! Prayers for those in the High Risk areas.



Public Severe Weather Outlook

Please note this briefing may be out of date after 1508 UTC on 03/02/2012 and there will be no subsequent updates during the day.
Please send comments or questions to spc.feedback@noaa.gov or using the feedback page.

ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 021326
ALZ000-GAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-OHZ000-T NZ000-021800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0726 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

ALABAMA
GEORGIA
ILLINOIS
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
MISSISSIPPI
OHIO
TENNESSEE

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM EAST
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN ALABAMA AND
NORTHERN GEORGIA...NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO.

MORNING WEATHER DATA CONFIRM A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE TOWARD THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN MISSOURI. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
SPREAD TO NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON...AT THE SAME
TIME THE WINDS THROUGH ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY
STRONG. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR
FAST-MOVING TORNADIC STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING
TORNADOES IN THE HIGH RISK AREA OF EXTREME SOUTHERN
INDIANA...CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SEPARATE BAND OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES COMPARED TO
FARTHER NORTH IN THE HIGH RISK...BUT MULTIPLE SEVERE STORMS WITH A
FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.


STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..THOMPSON.. 03/02/2012

$$
Quoting WDEmobmet:


I have tried for the past two days to upload that graph of the tornado sig parameters and have failed everytime, a print screen copy and paste in paint wouldnt even work... you have to share your secret..


If you have firefox right click then click view image then copy and paste the link which should be at that time in GIF or PNG format. If you have internet explorer then right click then click properties then copy and past image which should be in either GIF or PNG format. Let me know if it works.
Quoting biff4ugo:
JNCali, can you send me the link to that aurora site.

Here's the link...
http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If you have firefox right click then click view image then copy and paste the link which should be at that time in GIF or PNG format. If you have internet explorer then right click then click properties then copy and past image which should be in either GIF or PNG format. Let me know if it works.


Tried that... I was getting my from SPC so that may be the problem. Is that where you where getting yours from
Mesoscale Discussion 203

click for link

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE IL...SCNTRL IND AND SW OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55...

VALID 021350Z - 021515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 55
CONTINUES.

THE THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ENEWD ACROSS SCNTRL IND AND MAY REACH SW OH BY MIDDAY. A WW
MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES
TOWARD THE ERN EDGE OF WW 55.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SCNTRL IL
ALONG A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM A SFC LOW IN SRN MO. THE
STORMS ARE ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES THAT MUCAPE VALUES NEAR THE
WARM FRONT ARE AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
SCNTRL IL AND SCNTRL IND SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 C/KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD ALSO
EXIST BUT THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP THIS POTENTIAL
ISOLATED.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

Well if you think we are void of good analysis, feel free to drop in sometime and provide some of your own. ;-)


Kinda meant it more as poking fun introspectively at how the board usually operates.

Might be able to poke in from time-to-time, but I'll actually be working the evening shift watching the rivers. Good thing storm motions are expected to be pretty high.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


I'd imagine that it won't be a lot different on this site. We'll get 2-3 of the same warning texts posted and many wows for similar radar images and very little analysis beyond that :)


THE 6 OF US are posting the Warnings on FACEBOOK so they can be reposted and get to many people very quick...that seems to be the best way as all 6 of us are on one site.
TWC has updated the TOR:CON numbers from the ones I posted in comment #546. Of special note, north-central Tennessee has been upgraded to an index of 9, along with a few other slight changes.

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index

Updated: March 2, 2012 8:15 am ET
Friday March 2
AL north - 7
AL central night - 4
AR northeast - 3
GA north night - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 5
KY central - 9
KY west - 5
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast night - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 7
MS central night - 3
NC west night - 3
OH - 3
Southern OH - 4
TN north-central - 9
TN west - 4
TN east - 6
TN south-central - 6
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2
Quoting Neapolitan:
TWC has updated the TOR:CON numbers from the ones I posted in comment #546. Of special note, north-central Tennessee has been upgraded to an index of 9

TWC's Exclusive TOR:CON index

Updated: March 2, 2012 8:15 am ET
Friday March 2
AL north - 7
AL central night - 4
AR northeast - 3
GA north night - 3
IL south - 4
IN south - 5
KY central - 9
KY west - 5
KY east - 6
LA north - 3
LA central, southeast night - 3
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north - 7
MS central night - 3
NC west night - 3
OH - 3
Southern OH - 4
TN north-central - 9
TN west - 4
TN east - 6
TN south-central - 6
WV west - 4
Other areas - less than 2


Does TWC's torcon use the same area/distance for tornado probabilities that SPC does? I think... 20mi from a point?
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Kinda meant it more as poking fun introspectively at how the board usually operates.

Might be able to poke in from time-to-time, but I'll actually be working the evening shift watching the rivers. Good thing storm motions are expected to be pretty high.

No problem. In tense times like these with the outbreak later, it's good to get a laugh in or two.
Upgraded picture, Atlanta is in the risk area now.

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Does TWC's torcon use the same area/distance for tornado probabilities that SPC does? I think... 20mi from a point?


I believe that they use 50 mile radius
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Does TWC's torcon use the same area/distance for tornado probabilities that SPC does? I think... 20mi from a point?
Nah, Dr. Forbes' TOR:CON index is based on 50 miles:
The TOR:CON values range from 0 to 10. A value of 4 means that there is about a 40% chance of a tornado within 50 miles of a location in the specified area of severe thunderstorm activity. This also means that there is a 60% chance that a tornado will NOT occur.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Does TWC's torcon use the same area/distance for tornado probabilities that SPC does? I think... 20mi from a point?


they do within 50 miles i beleive.

so really, a TORCON of 9 is a 45% chance with SPC
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The people that were hit by EF-1 and 2 tornadoes 2 days ago are just inside the high risk area. I would bet there is some anxiety flowing
Quoting TheOnlyBravesFan:
Upgraded picture, Atlanta is in the risk area now.



GeorgiaStormz should be happy lol
Yal tell me somthing....

If you are outside away from your home, and you spot a tornado, which do you do?

A) Call 911 and report the tornado to weather service
B) Call/text family friends and get to safe shelter
I dont know why anyone would wish to go through a tornado. I have been in one and trust me, there is nothing "exciting" about experiencing one. It was one of the most horrifying experiences I ever went through. I have family in Tennessee so I am watching just if I live there. Everyone please stay safe today and tomorrow.
Quoting SPLbeater:


they do within 50 miles i beleive.

so really, a TORCON of 9 is a 45% chance with SPC


No a 50 mile radius is 4 times as large as a 25 mile radius so it is a 90/4= 22.5% etc and so on with the probabilites
Quoting hydrus:
The people that were hit by EF-1 and 2 tornadoes 2 days ago are just inside the high risk area. I would bet there is some anxiety flowing
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(
Based on my storm experience, it looks like the big stuff today will quickly go linear after a few strong cells early in the afternoon.

The elevated storms this morning make me think that there is quite the instability out there.

Nice Little Rock Sounding this morning, too...
Quoting SPLbeater:
Yal tell me somthing....

If you are outside away from your home, and you spot a tornado, which do you do?

A) Call 911 and report the tornado to weather service
B) Call/text family friends and get to safe shelter


BOTH!!! Seriously, I'd let my WFO know first.

I'm "excited" but saddened for these approaching storms. Prayers for all potentially affected.
A good amount of pea/small marble hail from cell that went through Montgomery County, IL around 7, heard to south and east they had golf ball. Moved out fast, should be just south of ILwthr by now, if not to border. Everybody to our south and east, stay safe, looks to be rough one!
Quoting Minnemike:
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(


This is definitely not chase country at all. The only thing you can do is pick a tall, clear hill that you know you can get down from if needed and watch from there.
Quoting Minnemike:
heck, I have anxiety about that area! not a good situation, even from a chaser's perspective given the countryside that will be hit... many tree-topped hills :(
I live just south of there. The folks around here are concerned and are getting prepared. I am also ready because I was in storm mode for the last event. I love this blog, and it has helped me tremendously with past storms. This will change drastically, but there is no question about the high helicity values that will be present today.
Quoting hydrus:
I live just south of there. The folks around here are concerned and are getting prepared. I am also ready because I was in storm mode for the last event. I love this blog, and it has helped me tremendously with past storms. This will change drastically, but there is no question about the high helicity values that will be present today.
great news that your prepared, so many ignore the warnings, good luck to you
599. MahFL
Quoting SPLbeater:
Yal tell me somthing....

If you are outside away from your home, and you spot a tornado, which do you do?

A) Call 911 and report the tornado to weather service
B) Call/text family friends and get to safe shelter


Only call 911 if you can see someone is about to die, if it's an EF0, that's not likely. Report it to the nearest NWS office. Then call you family if they are in the path of the tornado. If they are not, leave the bandwidth open for people in real danger.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Notice the enhancement across N & C FL Saturday Night.



Here's the energy here.
ty for posting that, looks like we here in florida will get something sat nite for sure if that holds true
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
920 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-VAZ004-WVZ005-006-013-024>0 26-034-021515-
BOONE WV-BOYD KY-BUCHANAN VA-CABELL WV-CARTER KY-GREENUP KY-
LAWRENCE OH-LAWRENCE KY-LINCOLN WV-LOGAN WV-MINGO WV-WAYNE WV-
WYOMING WV-
920 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BOYD...CARTER...GREENUP...
LAWRENCE...LINCOLN...LOGAN...MINGO...NORTHWESTERN BUCHANAN...
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING...SOUTHWESTERN BOONE...SOUTHWESTERN CABELL AND
WAYNE COUNTIES...

AT 912 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF PAINTSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO
POND ON ROADS AND QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ULYSSES AROUND 930 AM...CLIFFORD AROUND 940
AM...DUNLOW AROUND 950 AM...KIAHSVILLE AROUND 1000 AM...RANGER AROUND
1010 AM AND MYRA AROUND 1020 AM.

THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...I-64 BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 149 AND 191 IN KENTUCKY...AND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 20
IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3834 8324 3874 8300 3875 8287 3858 8281
3876 8265 3782 8156 3729 8228 3753 8199
3755 8213 3768 8231 3795 8252 3788 8263
3799 8293 3796 8300 3800 8303 3811 8290
3817 8292 3826 8316 3819 8324 3832 8334

$$
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
851 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...
NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 915 AM CST

* AT 851 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
COURTLAND...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTH OF MOULTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAIRO...TANNER...
CARTWRIGHT...ATHENS...
ELKMONT...FRENCH MILL...
BETHEL...HOLLAND GIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM.



LAT...LON 3499 8674 3483 8658 3467 8709 3469 8710
3466 8711 3461 8728 3478 8741 3500 8706
TIME...MOT...LOC 1451Z 239DEG 47KT 3476 8720

MINERAL SPRINGS...
STALLINGS...
MINT HILL...
WINGATE...
UNIONVILLE...

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNINGS WITH PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3481 8079 3494 8079 3500 8084
3498 8088 3495 8086 3487 8087 3496 8102
3504 8090 3499 8089 3500 8085 3505 8089
3531 8054 3527 8044 3519 8050 3517 8044
3518 8027

$$

JOH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 955 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BRAZIL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAZIL...
ROCKVILLE...
GREENCASTLE...
BRIDGETON...
KNIGHTSVILLE...
HARMONY...
CARBON...
BLOOMINGDALE...
REELSVILLE...
LENA...
TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...
MARSHALL...
KINGMAN...
JUDSON...
CLOVERDALE...
YEDDO...
CECIL HARDEN LAKE...
WALLACE...
BELLE UNION...
WAVELAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 48.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
EHI Values are insane!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053 >057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRAND ENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAIL LES...
LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRING FIELD...
HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGEN VILLE...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGA NTOWN...
BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBEL LSVILLE...
LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON. ..COLUMBIA...
JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
918 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012 /818 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012/

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE TOWARDS OHIO. THIS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. THESE STORMS THROUGH THE NOON HOUR WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
REGION BY MIDDAY AND WE WILL SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION.

THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT ALONG OF OR AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...MOST LIKELY AROUND THE I-65
CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ROUGHLY AROUND 2-4 PM
EST. THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
SOME TORNADOES...POSSIBLY LONG TRACKED AND VERY DAMAGING
TORNADOES AS WELL. AGAIN...THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
OR ALONG THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST...REACHING
SOUTH- CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND THE BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY MOST
LIKELY AFTER 4-5PM EST...AND STILL REMAINING SEVERE OR TORNADIC.

IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR SEVERE AND TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AS QUICK ACTION WILL
BE NEEDED SINCE ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL POSE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY
. CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE...OR VIEW LOCAL MEDIA ON THIS
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

$$

AL
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.
Cape forecast.

1.75" diameter hail just reported by local law enforcement & trained spotters in Terre Haute, IN.
Quoting jamesrainier:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
958 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN FOUNTAIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PARKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1045 AM EST

* AT 955 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL
SIZE HAIL
. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6
MILES NORTH OF CLINTON TO 8 MILES SOUTH OF BRAZIL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRAZIL...
ROCKVILLE...
GREENCASTLE...
BRIDGETON...
KNIGHTSVILLE...
HARMONY...
CARBON...
BLOOMINGDALE...
REELSVILLE...
LENA...
TURKEY RUN STATE PARK...
MARSHALL...
KINGMAN...
JUDSON...
CLOVERDALE...
YEDDO...
CECIL HARDEN LAKE...
WALLACE...
BELLE UNION...
WAVELAND...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 48.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 19 AND 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



Hail 2.50" heading towards Brazil
Quoting Chucktown:
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.


I was thinking the samething. The convection is continuing to fire in the high risk region limiting daytime heating. However lot's of breaks in the clouds over western KY, TN, MS, AL, & GA.
Now, I'm no weather expert (hope to be some day, plan to study meteorology in college), but this is what I expect to be added in one of the next 2 updates. 30% tornado in the High risk area, an extension of 15% tornado as well. Also a 60% wind seems likely over northern Tennessee/southern Kentucky. Not good for this area at all.

Quoting Chucktown:
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.

That's a good point. If I remember correctly, we didn't have this convective activity the morning of the April 27th outbreak. Granted, we had extensive cloudiness, but not the type of stuff we have now that would act to destabilize the atmosphere a bit.
Quoting AussieStorm:




looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That's a good point. If I remember correctly, we didn't have this convective activity the morning of the April 27th outbreak. Granted, we had extensive cloudiness, but not the type of stuff we have now that would act to destabilize the atmosphere a bit.


April 27th had a lot of storms in the morning
Here you can see the animation of this.
Sun is moving into the high area and the LLJ is breaking up clouds over MS, AL, TN and GA.

\
Quoting Chucktown:
This mornings convection across the high risk area is possibly a Godsend - this may stabilize the atmosphere somewhat and keep the tornado threat limited for this afternoon.


Hopefully, although I think this precursor event could also make things worse...dropping rain, then the sun comes in and all of it goes steaming up into the atmosphere making for a murky situation. I am currently in the MDT risk zone, I am getting out of here ASAP.
These clouds could save the day.

Quoting WDEmobmet:


looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...


Quoting WDEmobmet:


looks like that storm severely tilted... look at where the VIL is highest but look at where they have the hail icon...


Use this link below to get your EHI values below. This should work.

Link

Minor rotation associated with storms heading to Bladen County, NC
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
912 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN TENNESSEE...
LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 912 AM CST...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL...AND
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ATHENS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW...HOLLAND GIN...
HARVEST...BETHEL...
TONEY...BLANCHE...
ELKWOOD...TAFT...
HAZEL GREEN...FISK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE.
SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS!
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
918 AM CST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL LIMESTONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 945 AM CST

* AT 918 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR FRENCH
MILL...OR ABOUT NEAR ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO INCLUDE...
CAPSHAW.
HARVEST.
MERIDIANVILLE.
HAZEL GREEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
STURDY SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST
DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
leading edge of warm sector surges northward clears out south of it as it does
near noon firing line forms along dry line boundry
with rapidly dev super cell thundstorms wide spread tornacic activity likly as line forms some of these storms may exceesd ef4 ratings i see 3 to 5 of these such events possible
.
Quoting KeyWestSun:

That's a good point. If I remember correctly, we didn't have this convective activity the morning of the April 27th outbreak. Granted, we had extensive cloudiness, but not the type of stuff we have now that would act to destabilize the atmosphere a bit.




Storms on the morning of 4/27
Looking on http://www.wunderground.com/tornado/ I see there's a TVS in central IL.
Looks like the Doc has a New Blog.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0907 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR NWRN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021507Z - 021600Z

RADAR TRENDS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
TSTMS ACROSS NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH.

LOOSELY ORGANIZED TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE WITHIN A
WEAK WAA ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NRN AL INTO PARTS OF MIDDLE TN. 12Z
QAG/BMX SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WEAK STABLE LAYER NEAR 1 KM AGL...BUT
WITH CONTINUED HEATING THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SFC BASED PARCELS WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. GWX VWP DATA ALSO
SHOW A STRONG/CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH...WITH 0-1 KM
BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KTS. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF TSTMS...GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST FORCING
MECHANISMS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...BUT WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0205
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0922 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
KY...WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021522Z - 021715Z

A RAPID INCREASE IN THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE BY
MIDDAY...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE
HAIL.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC 500 MB JET CORE IS IN THE PROCESS
OF INTENSIFYING IN EXCESS OF 100 KT...AS ITS EXIT REGION NOSES
ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS TOWARD CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THIS FEATURE...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS LIKELY TO WEAKEN
INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... MODELS
SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT AND SHARPENING OF A PRE-COLD FRONTAL DRY
LINE BY THE 17-19Z TIME FRAME...SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE...COUPLED
WITH WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION BENEATH THE
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...MAY SERVE TO FOCUS THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE
STORMS. IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND LARGE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BENEATH A 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB
JET...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS.

VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE OUTSET...AND TORNADIC POTENTIAL
MAY ALSO INCREASE QUICKLY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR PARTICULARLY STRONG
AND DAMAGING TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY MEAN FLOW /50-60+ KT/...CELLS
WILL BE FAST MOVING...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EST FRI MAR 2 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
HENDRICKS COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 1115 AM EST

* AT 1023 AM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF ROCKVILLE
TO 11 MILES SOUTH OF GREENCASTLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRAWFORDSVILLE...
DANVILLE...
MOORESVILLE...
PLAINFIELD...
BELLE UNION...
NEW MARKET...
EMINENCE...
FILLMORE...
BAINBRIDGE...
LITTLE POINT...
CARPENTERSVILLE...
STILESVILLE...
COATESVILLE...
LADOGA...
ROACHDALE...
GROVELAND...
DARLINGTON...
AMO...
NEW ROSS...
MONROVIA...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 46 AND 67.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 74 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 34 AND 60.
Quoting AussieStorm:




I see the second one now that you where refering to. I thought that the one of to the northwest was the only icon.... nevermind
I just got a fox new alert saying there is a tornado destroying homes in Bama! Can't believe tornados are already forming!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
leading edge of warm sector surges northward clears out south of it as it does
near noon firing line forms along dry line boundry
with rapidly dev super cell thundstorms wide spread tornacic activity likly as line forms some of these storms may exceesd ef4 ratings i see 3 to 5 of these such events possible
Wait exceeding ef4? So your saying 3 to 5 ef5?!
For those of you following Fukushima, some studies are being published in the National Center for Biotechnology Information webpage mostly about the detection of Fukushima plume over Europe (Spain, Greece, Romania, Italy and other places)...

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?db=pubme d&cmd=link&linkname=pubmed_pubmed&uid=22197531


Study: All of Western US and most of East Coast, Midwest, Canada covered in airborne particles on March 20, Fukushima plume model shows Based solely on Reactor No. 1 explosion