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El Niño weakens from strong to moderate

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on February 03, 2010

El Niño is weakening. Ocean temperatures over the Eastern and Central Pacific have gradually cooled over the past few weeks, and it now appears that the El Niño event of 2009 - 2010 has peaked. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", crossed below the 1.5°C threshold for a strong El Niño into the "moderate" range in mid-January, and were 1.2°C above average on January 31, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. If temperatures decline further into the 0.5°C - 1.0°C above average range, this will be a "weak" El Niño. The peak warmth of this event appears to have been late December - early January (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature from average for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean from March 2009 (when La Niña conditions were present) to January 2010. The strongest El Niño conditions were observed December 2009 - January 2010, when temperatures as much as 2 - 2.5°C (dark orange colors) were observed between longitudes 150°W - 170°W. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The El Niño forecast
Though El Niño appears to have peaked, the decline in SSTs over the Equatorial Pacific may slow and possibly reverse in February, thanks to a burst of stronger-than-average surface westerly winds that has developed near the Date Line. This westerly wind burst is driving a new Kelvin wave of sub-surface warm water towards the coast of South America, which will act to reinforce El Niño over the next month or so. This new Kelvin wave is not as strong as the previous one that propagated eastward over the last few months of 2009, which pushed El Niño over the "strong" threshold. Once the new Kelvin wave subsides in March, it is possible that there will be more westerly wind bursts that will act to drive new Kelvin waves that will reinforce El Niño into the summer. However, El Niño events typically die out in the spring, and most of the El Niño computer forecast models (Figure 2) are predicting an end to El Niño by summer. Note that the last time we had a strong El Niño event--the record El Niño of 1997 - 1998--the event ended very abruptly in May, and a La Niña event developed by the 1998 hurricane season. This resulted in a very active 1998 hurricane season (14 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch). The recent weakening of El Niño is a likely sign that there will not be El Niño conditions for the coming hurricane season. Only once since 1950 has an El Niño event lasted through two full hurricane seasons, and I don't expect that will occur this time, either. Given that since 1995, the Atlantic has been in an active hurricane period, except for in El Niño years, a more active than normal hurricane season is likely in 2010.


Figure 2. Forecasts made in late January of El Niño from a suite of high-powered global dynamical models and simpler statistical models. Of the dynamical models, 5 are forecasting neutral El Niño conditions by hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October), 2 are forecasting La Niña, and only 1 is forecasting El Niño. For the statistical models, these numbers are 4 neutral, 1 La Niña, and 3 El Niño. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

Portlight looking for tents for Haiti
Portlight.org disaster-relief continues to make great progress in Haiti getting aid to those who need it. Portlight has managed to get $100,000 in donated durable medical equipment into Haiti so far, at a cost of just $4500. Paul Timmons, leader of the Portlight relief efforts, wrote this in the latest Portlight.org blog:

OK...gonna make this quick...but we...and by 'we' I mean all of us....have done something that the Federal government has not been able to do: we have opened a direct pipeline for the shipment, delivery and distribution of goods from our Atlanta warehouse directly to our secured location near Port-au-Prince...I have had two calls from USAID officials this morning asking "How'd ya do it?"...and "Can we use it?"

we are making a difference, y'all....



Figure 3. Paul Timmons of Portlight surveys medical beds and crutches being readied for shipment to Haiti.

So, please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief. A few highlights:

Paul Timmons, head of Portlight, has been interviewed by NBC Nightly News at our Atlanta location for a story that will follow one of our shipments from the Atlanta warehouse to its distribution in Haiti. This story will be aired in several parts starting late this week. When scheduling information is given to us we will post it here; tune in and see Paul!

Ron will be on The Barometer Bob Show Thursday night outlining our ongoing efforts in Haiti. We here at Portlight want to thank Bob for his continuing support; he has been a good friend to Portlight and we appreciate his efforts!

On site:
Our primary site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, has been in Haiti for 5 days and has been moving fairly freely from the base at the Quisqueya University; he has been looking at properties that have been offered for tent cities in the Leogane area as well as making contact with a number of people that have been in contact with us here in the US about specific issues. He has contacted the village leaders at Dufort and is working to arrange food deliveries to them.

Further, the latest shipment is expected to be in the Dominican Republic on Thursday. Given the overland route required by the damage in Haiti, we hope to have this shipment in Haiti late in the day on Friday. The delivery and distribution of this shipment will be covered by NBC Nightly News as a part of the aforementioned piece.

We have several additional shipments queued up for transport, including the remainder of the donation from H&H Wholesalers and these will be sent in the next several days; we are investigating a number of additional shipping opportunities that will facilitate quicker lead and delivery times.


Paul will also be on KFPA radio in Berkley, CA at 2pm PST Friday. Tune into http://www.kpfa.org/pushing-limits to hear the show. Paul also appeared on WBAI in New York City on January. Check out their archives to hear the interview.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Please ask her if she needs someone to sweep the floors...or if you do! I'm serious as a heart attack. And I WILL do windows!

My convertible told me she is very tired of living in this most recent 4-wheel drive territory!


I'll talk to our floor sweeper people and see what they have for ya! :-)
Nope locals say no but i say we still could get it.
503. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think this needs to be moved further south to include North Carolina....



Quite the opposite.

All of the models have trended north on consecutive runs finally with this storm after a lot of flip flopping. There are quite a few local mets that think the models will even come further north as the storm continues. This has been the norm for every snow event I have had this winter up here.

You're looking at event totals on order of:

6-12" northern NJ and Long Island
12-18" central NJ
18-24" southern NJ, DE, MD, VA

I have been issued a blizzard warning in coastal NJ for 12-18" of snow just now.

MD, VA, DE all have winter storm warnings for 16-24" snowfall totals.
Quoting TampaTom:


I'll talk to our floor sweeper people and see what they have for ya! :-)


Can a case of Yeungling be brought over the border? (UNOPENED, duh.) Let me know if that would be appreciated, or an acceptable substitute. I am very aware of the ethics involved...I think I had to have that ethics class on every deployment...I believe as silly servants, gifts up to $20 in value can be accepted?
Quoting mikester:
Nope locals say no but i say we still could get it.


Where are you, mikester? I really thought I heard the DC locals say NY was on the borderline...oh, maybe it was TWC (now I am embarrassing myself, aren't I? I still have TWC on occasionally).
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Can a case of Yeungling be brought over the border? (UNOPENED, duh.) Let me know if that would be appreciated, or an acceptable substitute. I am very aware of the ethics involved...I think I had to have that ethics class on every deployment...I believe as silly servants, gifts up to $20 in value can be accepted?


I can neither confirm or deny those rumors... ;-)
Yeah everwhere i look on here/weather.com/noagg has us on the border of the storm. My locals say it will pass well south of us and not touch nystate or atleast not central ny that is.
Quoting TampaTom:


I can neither confirm or deny those rumors... ;-)


LOL! Forgot, you've been within spitting distance of our Nation's Capital!

Speaking of...off topic and ZERO to do with TampaTom,
I thought the statement out of DC about us "libs" being uh, "challenged," was hilarious!

What is wrong with people? Like there isn't enough to worry about!
Funny looking at the animated radars the storm seems to be moving almost dead north-northeast right now?
so everyone wants to ingore my post on 497 its shocking if u want to see it
Quoting btwntx08:
so everyone wants to ingore my post on 497 its shocking if u want to see it


It is shocking... Is that just the new stuff that has fallen, or the cumulative of what's already on the ground plus the new stuff?

And, what's going on out in Texas? Man, they are getting beaten soundly!
Yeah take a look at nystate right now. We are way below what we usually have on the ground right now.
Quoting TampaTom:
What is earthquake liquefaction?


it's what too many cities are built on!
Quoting btwntx08:
so everyone wants to ingore my post on 497 its shocking if u want to see it

I'm trying to figure out the situation that would cause 12" accumulations in SC Texas. With it being 8 days out, I'm not holding my breath on it, based on how this winter has gone so far with the models. They are either dead-on 12 days out, or terribly indecisive until 2-3 days out.
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm trying to figure out the situation that would cause 12" accumulations in SC Texas. With it being 8 days out, I'm not holding my breath on it, based on how this winter has gone so far with the models. They are either dead-on 12 days out, or terribly indecisive until 2-3 days out.

will just have to find out if it continues or not


Quoting mikester:
Funny looking at the animated radars the storm seems to be moving almost dead north-northeast right now?


That will change once the Low forms more....then the jet stream steering layer will take over. I really wish it would push through too. I am beginning to feel bad for the folks down south....this is nuts - and more is on the way next week!!!
Lets hope the nystate look getting more snow is better. We need some more snow right now. 5" ain't gonna bite it.

Oli

Hooray for pointless storms in the middle of knowhere!!


Yeah we are used to it up here with lots of snow but people down there are not.
Quoting btwntx08:

will just have to find out if it continues or not

Yep. I just checked the GFS run here on WU, and it shows some rain the day before, but nothing near that level of precip, and it doesn't look cold enough based on the 1000-500mb depth. (540dm is generally what you look for in regards to snow... it doesn't get far enough south)
Lee County NC was justed issued a Flash Flood watch effective till 4:00 a.m. Saturday.
Man this storm really wants to break through the lower jetstream.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. I just checked the GFS run here on WU, and it shows some rain the day before, but nothing near that level of precip, and it doesn't look cold enough based on the 1000-500mb depth. (540dm is generally what you look for in regards to snow... it doesn't get far enough south)

i agree
526. P451
Winter Storm Watches just went up for Long Island and NYC and northern NJ. (will be warnings by midnight I would expect).

Winter Storm Warnings for the rest of NJ, DE, MD, VA, Most of PA, Ohio, Indiana.

Blizzard warning for coastal NJ and DE.

Just like the Dec 19 blizzard right at the end the models went from southern trending to northern trending and in a hurry!

HPC needs to update it's maps LOL.
527. P451
Quoting mikester:
Man this storm really wants to break through the lower jetstream.


I know it!

do these two images cause anyone to put any stock into those southward biased models of yesterday or the lingering ones today? Do they show you a storm that is going to cruise right off of NC and swoop right on out to sea? It doesn't to me.

This isn't also going to just move right on into the present flow overhead and succumb to it. It's going to push some of that out of here and bring some of it's own.

I'm with those who feel the northern model treks of today are likely representative of what we are going to see - and might see even more of a northward progression.

We never know with these tricky situations but this northward trend seems be more of the rule now instead of the outlier.

The images: 8 HR IR loop



Radar:




====

Pressure maps also showing signs that northern biased models may prove correct in this one.

Current: (note the low just off of southern tx)



3HR Changes (note where it's the biggest drop, that's where the low is likely heading)

55892
seus66 keka 042026
eqreka
caz001>004-076-042330-

earthquake report
eureka ca
1226 pm pst thu feb 4 2010

an earthquake has been felt weakly by many people in the eureka area.
no damage has been reported.

the west coast...alaska tsunami warning center has indicated that an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on the richter scale was centered about 50 miles sw of eureka ca.

any further information will be made available when it is received from the west coast/alaska tsunami warning center.
I tell ya still think this storm has potential to cause some real snow here in northeast if it keeps tracking the way it is.
530. N3EG
Quoting RMM34667:
My weather radio just went off for the very first time since I set it up months ago. It says EARTHQUAKE. But I can't figure out what it means. I'm sure there wasn't an earthquake in Florida??????


If they were predicting earthquakes, they missed the 5.4 we just had off the coast of N. California by a few thousand miles.



The rain shield is spreading north. That's a huge amount of moisture moving across the US continent.
JUST IN EARTHQUAKE OFF CAL
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement issued 02/4/2010 at 12:23PM PST

At 12:20 PM Pacific Standard Time on February 4, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 6.0 occurred 50 miles/80 Km southwest of Eureka, California.

The magnitude is such that a tsunami IS NOT EXPECTED. However, in coastal areas of intense shaking, locally generated tsunamis can be triggered by underwater landslides. This will be the only WCATWC message issued for this event.

The location and magnitude are based on preliminary information. Further information will be issued by the United States Geological Survey or the appropriate regional seismic network.

Link to Standard Information Statement
Link to XML/CAP Message
Link to Printable Message
PAGER - M 6.0 - 55.8 km (34.7 mi) WNW of Petrolia, CA
Alert Version: 3
Thursday, February 4th, 2010 at 20:20:21 UTC
Location: 40.4° N, 124.9° WDepth: 11km
Event Id: NC71348851
Created: 12 minutes, 0 seconds after earthquake
no 518

Although the satellite image of the South Pacific does not show up any large land areas, Oli has threatened Tahiti, Bora Bora and the Cook Islands. It has caused damage in Papeete, the capital of Tahiti and has caused tourists to seek shelter in well built buildings on Bora Bora.

Whilst there are no reports of fatalities as yet, it is expected that there will be.
Man, things are a-rumbling lately...

Now that the Saints are in the super bowl, all of those things we thought weren't going to happen ever, or at least for quite a long time, are free to go ahead and happen, apparently.
U.S. missionaries charged with kidnapping in Haiti

WTH

Link
Looks like it was at an intersection of faults?



Depth 7 miles.
KOG,
That's the second strong quake in almost the same spot. The other one happened maybe a month ago.
Link to previous quake, Jan 10

Strangeness.

Thanks for the news.
(mod. Link added)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


so should we expect another large one somewhere else soon? because that has been the trend since october.
So I get to drive through this all tomorrow afternoon :) I love driving in snow


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
231 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...

.OVERVIEW...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY
SATURDAY MORNING. HEAVIEST SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
MUNCIE...TIPTON...NOBLESVILLE...INDIANAPOLIS...BLOOMINGTON...
BEDFORD...SHELBYVILLE AND COLUMBUS.

A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE INTO INDIANA TONIGHT. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING AS LIGHT SLEET POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH SNOW PUSHES INTO THE VINCENNES...SULLIVAN AND LINTON AREAS.
AS THE STORM PUSHES EAST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

RUSH HOUR ON FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOWFALL.

SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...GIVING WAY TO
CLOUDY SKIES AND FLURRIES.

INZ037>042-046>049-054>057-062>065-070>072-050345-
/O.UPG.KIND.WS.A.0002.100205T0900Z-100206T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KIND.WS.W.0002.100205T0900Z-100206T1100Z/
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-HENDRICKS-MARION-
HANCOCK-HENRY-MORGAN-JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...BEDFORD...SEYMOUR
231 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM
FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* MAIN IMPACT: UNTREATED ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED ON FRIDAY.
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ON ROADS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY. TRAVEL MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS.

* ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREAS AFTER 400 AM AND
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

* OTHER IMPACTS: DRIFTING SNOW WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$


Wow, this sound pretty dire for the Jersey Shore (I pulled this from the forecast for Cape May, NJ)

Blizzard Warning

Statement as of 1:43 PM EST on February 04, 2010

... Blizzard Warning in effect from 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST
Saturday...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Blizzard
Warning... which is in effect from 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST
Saturday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect.

A storm system developing over the Gulf of Mexico today will pass
off the Carolina coast Friday night and then continue to the
northeast on Saturday. Snow from this system will overspread the
region from south to north Friday afternoon... then continue through much
of Saturday. Snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches are expected near the
Delaware and central New Jersey coast with up to 24 inches
possible over southern New Jersey and the central Delmarva.
Strengthening winds Friday night and Saturday will create blowing
and drifting snow which will reduce visibilities to under one-
quarter mile at times.

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are
expected. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor
visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout
conditions... making travel extremely dangerous. Continue to
monitor the latest forecasts from your National Weather Service.
That is just TOO crazy. I think my weather radio predicted an earthquake! It went off over two hours ago. I've gone to the usgs website a dozen times since then looking for any sign of an earthquake. And suddenly a big red box showed up!


Check this out about 30 miles off the coast of CA.
Quoting WaterWitch11:


so should we expect another large one somewhere else soon? because that has been the trend since october.
iam waiting on an 8.9 somewhere along the line
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam waiting on an 8.9 somewhere along the line


please don't say that!
Funny i don't see any major movement to the east yet on this storm.
from the nws in san antonio this afternoon
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY FOR WINTERY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT ONLY COLD RAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING AS IT IS PREMATURE TO ADD FROZEN PRECIP THIS FAR OUT.
NONETHELESS...THIS SYSTEM OBVIOUSLY BEARS WATCHING. STAY TUNED.

Quoting mikester:
Funny i don't see any major movement to the east yet on this storm.


give it time its just getting started and the more it gets started the more the jet stream will start influencing the movement.
6.0 quake strikes Northern California coast
Thursday, February 04, 2010


EUREKA, Calif. -- A magnitude-6.0 earthquake has struck off the coast of Humboldt County, but officials say there are no immediate reports of major damage or injury.

The U.S. Geological Survey reports that the temblor hit at 12:20 p.m. about 35 miles northwest of the community of Petrolia and nearly 50 miles west of Eureka. The shaking was felt up to the Oregon border and as far south as Sonoma County.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam waiting on an 8.9 somewhere along the line


Ya that would be not good considering, Im pretty sure a 11 and up would cause the earth to almost split in half.
Looks like the system making a move north and looks like the high pressure over us is loosing ground to this storms moisture too. now;http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=ir&hours=12
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya that would be not good considering, Im pretty sure a 11 and up would cause the earth to almost split in half.
not a matter of if but when
alf!!!!

:)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not a matter of if but when


Ya agree with that there is things happen the plates that seems to be a trend. Seems like we had all this pressure build up and very little activity world wide during the past 10 years or so.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya that would be not good considering, Im pretty sure a 11 and up would cause the earth to almost split in half.


The seismologists claim an earthquake larger than 9.8 is not likely, as it would involve more the one fault line rupturing at once.
Hey seeing how two lows control this system coming up tomorrow how can they predict the coastal low will be stronger then in interior low? I mean what would happen if the interior low steal the moisture from the coastal low? That could mean alot of snow inland and northeast might just get a nor'easter after all? I mean it has happened before in the past.
Quoting Bordonaro:


The seismologists claim an earthquake larger than 9.8 is not likely, as it would involve more the one fault line rupturing at once.


Or a Meteor impact would cause 9 and above. The Chicxulub crater almost did the earth in when it impacted near the Yucatan penninsula.

Link
Quoting mikester:
Hey seeing how two lows control this system coming up tomorrow how can they predict the coastal low will be stronger then in interior low? I mean what would happen if the interior low steal the moisture from the coastal low? That could mean alot of snow inland and northeast might just get a nor'easter after all? I mean it has happened before in the past.


Usually the low when it gets over water intensifies.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI (07F)
6:00 AM FST February 5 2010
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Oli (925 hPa) located at 19.5S 151.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on GOES infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle, within 480 NM of center in the southeast quadrant and within 360 NM of the center in the southwest quadrant.

Overall organization remains good. Spiral band wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Tops warmed past 3 hours. Outflow good in all quadrants.

Dvorak based on LG eye embedded in W surround yielding DT=6.0

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Cyclone steered southeast by northwest deep layer mean flow. System lies in a relatively low-moderate shear environment. CIMSS indicates increasing shear along forecast track. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with some further intensification in the short term before gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.7S 150.9W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 24.4S 149.6W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 29.8S 144.8W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Oli will be issued at around 2:30 AM UTC (Friday)...
If the currents allow it right?
Quoting NRAamy:
alf!!!!

:)


Okay, I give up. Who is alf?
Quoting Bordonaro:


The seismologists claim an earthquake larger than 9.8 is not likely, as it would involve more the one fault line rupturing at once.

As I am taking a geology class right now, I would definitely have to agree. Remember that the Richter scale is not a linear progression, but rather an exponential one. The difference (in energy released) of a 4.0 to a 6.0 quake is a factor of 1000.

The Indonesian quake of 2004 was a 9.1, and that ruptured over 700 miles of fault in one go.
Quoting mikester:
Hey seeing how two lows control this system coming up tomorrow how can they predict the coastal low will be stronger then in interior low? I mean what would happen if the interior low steal the moisture from the coastal low? That could mean alot of snow inland and northeast might just get a nor'easter after all? I mean it has happened before in the past.


I am originally from New York City, lived there almost 18 yrs. Your location may see some light snow, but at this particular moment that is about all.

Many L pressure systems that move across the Midwest usually merge or transfer their energy to the coastal L. The coastal L has access to the mild Atlantic waters, the difference between the milder air/water over the Atlantic and the colder Arctic air in place over portions of the NE and Mid Atlantic makes the "near perfect set-up" for a major Nor'easter, with temps near 25-30F, plenty of lift and alot energy off the Atlantic, especially as the L center crosses the warm Gulf Stream.

My friend, after the El Nino subsides, the western and central portions of NY state in the "lake effect snow belts" will have plenty of snow, probably this winter 2010-11..

Okay, I give up. Who is alf?


drg0dOwnCountry...he's green...hence he's an alien...hence alf!

:)



NWS NOLA

Short term...
low pressure system developed over Lower Texas near McAllen with a
moisture rich airmass over the western Gulf of Mexico. Large scale
ascent noted well in advance of upper level disturbance moving
across New Mexico overnight. Satellite sounder imagery from poes
AMSU shows an axis of 2 inch or higher precipitable water
advancing northward and surrounded by a large area of 1.5-2.0 inch
precipitable water values. NESDIS satellite precipitation estimates suggest 0.30
to 0.40 inch/hour rates associated within this area. Radar trends
have been for enhanced returns over the Baton Rouge and western
Florida parishes/SW MS counties but surface observed amounts have
been about 1 inch lower than radar indicated amounts. Looking at
several radars do show the enhanced area equally but all are also
sampling the area around 11kft near the freezing
level...suggesting some bright banding...snow melt and graupel enhancement
may be giving appearances of heavier than realized rain in the
short term. Warm air advection should lift the freezing level with
an efficient warm rain process overtaking the area during the
morning into the afternoon hours. No change in thinking on Flood
Watch as all indications are pointing towards a relatively high
confidence expectation for widespread soaking rains that becomes
heavy at times on high antecedent ground conditions. Rain not
likely to taper until later tonight with some residual light rain
Friday morning before ending completely for the super weekend
ahead.
Quoting NRAamy:

Okay, I give up. Who is alf?


drg0dOwnCountry...he's green...hence he's an alien...hence alf!

:)


Ahhhh I get it now. lol
Ah i see so basically the arctic cold front is saving us from this then. Huh go figure huge cold air mass and no snow. Wait next week friggin storm with 60f temps will get us again. All I get in nystate anymore is alot of rain events and very few snow events like what is happening right now.
Quoting jeffs713:

As I am taking a geology class right now, I would definitely have to agree. Remember that the Richter scale is not a linear progression, but rather an exponential one. The difference (in energy released) of a 4.0 to a 6.0 quake is a factor of 1000.

The Indonesian quake of 2004 was a 9.1, and that ruptured over 700 miles of fault in one go.


Of course, we all know anything is possible. IF one fault zone that links to another fault zone goes and slips at the same time rupturing >700 miles, then you may see a 9.8 or 9.9 Mw quake.

I believe the largest modern quake was near 9.5 or 9.6 Mw off of Chile in 1960. A whole lot of territory fractured in that quake, causing major tsunamis around the Pacific.
573. P451
The current low is going to move over LA and into the TN valley and up into the Ohio valley.

Sometime during that process a second low will form somewhere in the SC/NC region and exit the NC coast anywhere from Cape Hatteras up to the VA/NC border and move NE.

From there once off the delmarva a third low will develop further east and begin to race ENE while the second low will stay behind keeping a piece of energy, prolonged wind and snow, over the delmarva. Eventually that low will pull ENE and then E south of long island while the inland low will get pulled east right on through PA, NJ, and follow on the 2nd low's heels.

At least that appears to be the primary possibility at the moment.

The cutoff for significant plowable snow appears to be New York City and the extreme southern coastlines of CT, RI, possibly MA.

The cutoff for a major storm appears to be I-80 southward.

The cutoff for a crippling storm appears to be somewhere near Ocean County NJ westward.

These imaginary lines do not propagate endlessly westward mind you.



This forecast is also not set in stone as the difference of just 10-20 miles can mean a difference in 2" in accumulation north to south.

So any slight variation in the northernmost position of the storm can make a big difference for some - especially those further north.

For now,

NYC 4-9"
Northern NJ 6-12"
Central NJ 12-18"
Southern NJ, DE, MD, VA 18-24"


Stay tuned! Just like with the Dec 19 blizzard we weren't really sure for many folks until the event was actually underway.

My forecast that storm went like this here in central NJ: These are forecasted event TOTALS based on those general times when you would have read my forecast.

7am: 1-3"
Noon: 4-8"
7pm: 15-20"
9pm: 20-24"

The same has happened with this system for me. Just a day in advance.

I went from expect a blizzard to expect nothing to expect 6-12 to expect 3-6 back to 6-12 and now 12-18.

So you can see how our forecasters have thrown the idea of just watching the system itself out the window and tailor their forecasts directly based on model flip flops.

That's terrible meteorology!

But as today went on, the models came together better, and even though I'm sure they will flip flop some, it seems the event is quite certain given all the warnings that have now been posted.

Tomorrow will tell the tale.
p.s. there were two small quakes yesterday off the Oregon coast. Probably not more than 100 miles north
GOM IR loop

578. xcool
WHO DAT! DAM RAINOUT TOODAY DING DING
I know the main focus now is on the Mid Atlantic Nor'easter. However there is some Arctic air going to visit the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, beginning on Mo 2-8-10, note where the second batch of Arctic air is coming from for next Th 2-11, for the Southern Plains:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST THU FEB 4 2010

NEXT RAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...500MB TROUGH LAGS BEHIND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...
AND SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE ITS ORIGINS NORTH OF 60 WITHIN THE
MAINLAND PORTION OF NUNAVUT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PRECIP
AT THIS TIME...BUT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER WEATHER COULD BE
IN THE OFFING.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Of course, we all know anything is possible. IF one fault zone that links to another fault zone goes and slips at the same time rupturing >700 miles, then you may see a 9.8 or 9.9 Mw quake.

I believe the largest modern quake was near 9.5 or 9.6 Mw off of Chile in 1960. A whole lot of territory fractured in that quake, causing major tsunamis around the Pacific.

My vote goes to that big earthquake in the 1700s or 1800s in the midwest which created a new lake and caused the Mississippi River to run backwards for a day!
Quoting rotarymunkey:

My vote goes to that big earthquake in the 1700s or 1800s in the midwest which created a new lake and caused the Mississippi River to run backwards for a day!


The New Madrid Fault zone is extremely dangerous, as every 200-500 yrs, the mid-continent fault lets loose. Scary because this major quake would effect St Louis, MO and Memphis, TN into SW IL. And when that happens, it will not be pretty.
Snip from the Tampa Tribune about the Earthquake Warning earlier today:

(Holley)Wade (Hillsborough County Emergency Management) said errors in the emergency warning system are rare. A warning about avalanches went out about 15 years ago.

She added that there is a possibility Florida could experience a seismic shift because of a fault line that runs through the Panhandle and into the Mississippi Valley. The likelihood of an earthquake rocking Tampa is unlikely, however, she said.

"Aliens will land first," Wade said.


Holley RULES! She is my hero...
Man one busy winter for the southeast this year. Nothing but storms after storms. I can remember when we got storms after storms but that hasn't happened in a long time here.
Quoting Bordonaro:
I know the main focus now is on the Mid Atlantic Nor'easter. However there is some Arctic air going to visit the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS, beginning on Mo 2-8-10, note where the second batch of Arctic air is coming from for next Th 2-11, for the Southern Plains:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
324 PM CST THU FEB 4 2010

NEXT RAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN SUNDAY. STILL APPEARS SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WILL END BEFORE TEMPS FALL TO FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...500MB TROUGH LAGS BEHIND LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...
AND SOME LIGHT WINTRY PRECIP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE AROUND THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL HAVE ITS ORIGINS NORTH OF 60 WITHIN THE
MAINLAND PORTION OF NUNAVUT.
WILL REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING PRECIP
AT THIS TIME...BUT ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTER WEATHER COULD BE
IN THE OFFING.

what does that mean excatly for us
Statement as of 3:48 PM CST on February 4, 2010


... Preliminary rainfall totals for deep south Texas...

The following are preliminary rainfall totals for deep south
Texas from February 2nd through midday today. These values
may be updated as needed as some reports may contain incomplete
data.


Airports/ASOS/RAWS amount
====================================
Laguna Atascosa 3.49"
Port Isabel-Cameron co 2.76"
Santa Ana NWR 2.65"
Brownsville 2.06"
Linn-San Manuel 1.71"
McAllen 1.42"
Harlingen 1.16"
Falcon Lake 1.03"
Hebbronville 0.96"
Edinburg 0.81"
Falfurrias 0.80"
Zapata 0.69"
Quoting btwntx08:

what does that mean excatly for us


That Arctic air will originate in the land of the Polar bears and Eskimoes. Please see the location in blue.

Depending how much cold air spills south we may have wintry precip and temps from 15 to 25 F BELOW normal.

I think i saw some polar bears the other day up here lol....
where's Grothar?

:(
Quoting Bordonaro:


That Arctic air will originate in the land of the Polar bears and Eskimoes. Depending how much cold air spills south we may have wintry precip and temps from 15 to 25 F BELOW normal.


wow defenity we need to watch then :o
Why is there no talk about the disturbance in the middle of the country? It seems to be feeding off of the storm system brewing to the south of it.
Quoting mikester:
Why is there no talk about the disturbance in the middle of the country? It seems to be feeding off of the storm system brewing to the south of it.

Here is the NCEP forecast maps, showing the progression of the Midwest and Gulf Low pressure systems:

Quoting NRAamy:
where's Grothar?

:(


Last night he said he was headed to NY then Penn I believe. He may be in for a rough ride.
So the low just dissipates? Weird as it is well north of the current system to draw its moisture away from it.
Quoting btwntx08:

wow defenity we need to watch then :o

This is an idea how cold it is in Southern Nunavut
Last night he said he was headed to NY then Penn I believe. He may be in for a rough ride.

no kidding! I hope he took his armoured Humvee....

Quoting mikester:
So the low just dissipates? Weird as it is well north of the current system to draw its moisture away from it.


Yes, the coastal Low, or Nor'easter will absorb all its energy.
Quoting btwntx08:

what does that mean excatly for us

Cold.
Lots of Cold.
Quoting NRAamy:
Last night he said he was headed to NY then Penn I believe. He may be in for a rough ride.

no kidding! I hope he took his armoured Humvee....



Naw, things are not nearly that bad up in New York City and Philadelphia, there are scattered pockets in both cities that not even the drug lords like to go!
Hmm damn storm lol... poor people just south of pa are in bigtime. So no major snow for the northeast. Man when has this happened in feb? Not very often.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Naw, things are not nearly that bad up in New York City and Philadelphia, there are scattered pockets in both cities that not even the drug lords like to go!


uhhh not sure about Amy, but I was referring to the weather lol


3.0 ak


4 little ones in last hr in cal
Quoting PcolaDan:


uhhh not sure about Amy, but I was referring to the weather lol


My bad, Grothar is from Northern Long Island, I am sure he wll be just fine!
Took a quick glance at the 18Z GFS run for the next 16 days it looks like below normal temps for almost the entire period in the Southern Plains.

Please, bring me spring!!
I make a deal with ya. You give me snow and we give you warmer temps sounds good? lol....
Quoting jeffs713:

Cold.
Lots of Cold.

for whole state right our local mets say highs on tue 62 wed 60 and thurs 62 what u think
18z gfs at 168 hr insteresting
Quoting btwntx08:

for whole state right our local mets say highs on tue 62 wed 60 and thurs 62 what u think

I think the local meteorologists in far South TX are being conservative in their forecasts, until the cold air finally makes it to TX.
I was referring to the weather too!!!!

:)
wow look this is from the 18z gfs from twister data site look at the depth of the snow heres a link
Link
Quoting btwntx08:
wow look this is from the 18z gfs from twister data site look at the depth of the snow heres a link
Link


Wow, forecasting snow for SW TX into the TX Hill Counrty, amazing if it comes to pass!
well i g2g be back later bye for now
Well that sucks for us in the northeast. Nothing really forecasted to give us any snow worth a hoot. Can you believe nystate is only gonna have maybe 12" by the end of the month.
613.
Maybe it's not over yet... .3 inches of snow cover in GA the 16th and 17th. 0.5 over Alabama. 1-1.5 over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, and 0.1 for the florida panhandle according to the gfs.
Also more Houston snow? Galveston snow? Maybe Brownsville snow? etc. Wow.
Quoting mikester:
Well that sucks for us in the northeast. Nothing really forecasted to give us any snow worth a hoot. Can you believe nystate is only gonna have maybe 12" by the end of the month.
everything stays south till beyond 25 feb then severe will be in full swing and a slow rising storm track till spring lakes will be spared till then
Yeah just in time for temps to rebound. Every year around the end of feb our temps go back up which looks like the arctic blast will be gone and 35 day will be here thus meaning snow will melt fast. Oh well atleast i got to ride a whopping 5x's this year with my sled.
Quoting mikester:
Well that sucks for us in the northeast. Nothing really forecasted to give us any snow worth a hoot. Can you believe nystate is only gonna have maybe 12" by the end of the month.
we got some snow dust here nothing more been the most snowless winter in my 27 yrs living here in toronto,ontario all we been getting is cold aior nothing more
Yep nystate in general(excluding the snow belts) is way under its snow fall for this winter. Even in some of the snow belts out west of me are under there normal snowfall for a winter. Up north they have had lots of snow this year.
623. viter
The low out in the north Atlantic really looks tropical. They even have hurricane force wind warnings up for that storm.

Quoting viter:
The low out in the north Atlantic really looks tropical. They even have hurricane force wind warnings up for that storm.



WWNT31 KNGU 020512
SUBJ/NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH WIND AND SEAS WARNING//
RMKS/1. THIS WARNING IS VALID FOR 051200Z FEB 2010.
2. WARNINGS ARE FOR OVER WATER AREAS ONLY BUT MAY OVERLAP SOME LAND
AND SHELTERED AREAS AND HAVE BEEN SIMPLIFIED TO EASE PLOTTING.
3. HIGH WIND WARNINGS BASED ON 024 HRS FORECAST.
A. STORM WARNING: AREA OF 50 KT STORM AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
44.1N9 049.1W4, 44.3N1 050.1W6,
44.3N1 050.1W6, 43.3N0 050.4W9, 42.3N9 050.6W1,
40.3N7 049.9W2, 39.5N7 049.2W5, 39.4N6 046.4W4,
39.9N1 044.5W3, 41.2N7 041.9W4, 42.3N9 042.6W2,
42.6N2 046.3W3, 44.1N9 049.1W4.
MAX STORM 60KT NEAR 41.6N1 047.4W5.
B. GALE WARNING: AREA OF 35 KT GALE AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
43.3N0 031.9W3, 41.0N5 032.3W8,
40.0N4 032.6W1, 37.6N6 033.0W6, 31.0N4 038.1W2,
30.8N1 038.0W1, 31.0N4 037.5W5, 32.8N3 033.0W6,
33.0N6 032.8W3, 37.0N0 029.6W7, 39.0N2 029.1W2,
43.4N1 029.6W7, 43.3N0 031.9W3.
MAX GALE 45KT NEAR 37.1N1 031.5W9.
C. GALE WARNING: AREA OF 35 KT GALE AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
51.4N0 041.0W5, 51.8N4 043.0W7,
51.9N5 044.0W8, 51.5N1 045.0W9, 50.7N2 047.0W1,
48.2N4 052.0W7, 42.1N7 057.0W2, 41.5N0 061.0W7,
41.1N6 061.8W5, 39.0N2 061.6W3, 38.0N1 061.3W0,
37.6N6 061.0W7, 34.9N6 056.0W1, 34.3N0 055.0W0,
33.4N0 053.0W8, 32.7N2 051.0W6, 32.1N6 048.0W2,
32.0N5 045.8W7, 31.8N2 045.0W9, 31.9N3 043.0W7,
32.0N5 042.8W4, 32.7N2 041.0W5, 33.0N6 040.3W7,
34.6N3 039.0W2, 37.0N0 037.8W8, 38.0N1 037.6W6,
42.0N6 038.5W6, 43.0N7 039.2W4, 44.0N8 040.0W4,
45.0N9 041.0W5, 46.8N8 046.0W0, 46.6N6 032.0W5,
47.0N1 031.4W8, 48.0N2 033.0W6, 51.4N0 041.0W5.
MAX GALE 60KT NEAR 41.6N1 047.4W5.
D. GALE WARNING: AREA OF 35 KT GALE AND GREATER OVER WATER BOUNDED BY:
49.4N7 015.0W6, 49.5N8 016.0W7,
49.3N6 017.0W8, 49.0N3 017.2W0, 48.8N0 017.7W5,
48.2N4 017.6W4, 47.5N6 017.5W3, 47.1N2 017.4W2,
47.0N1 017.3W1, 46.0N0 015.9W5, 45.6N5 015.0W6,
45.3N2 014.0W5, 45.2N1 013.0W4, 45.8N7 009.9W8,
47.9N0 009.9W8, 49.4N7 011.4W6, 49.4N7 015.0W6.
MAX GALE 40KT NEAR 47.3N4 013.2W6.
4. HIGH SEAS WARNINGS BASED ON 024 HRS FORECAST.
A. SEAS 18 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
41.8N3 034.4W1, 45.0N9 037.8W8,
46.9N9 035.2W0, 50.1N6 042.0W6, 50.1N6 042.4W0,
50.1N6 043.1W8, 50.4N9 043.6W3, 50.3N8 044.9W7,
49.4N7 046.2W2, 47.6N7 048.5W7, 46.1N1 051.1W7,
43.8N5 052.7W4, 41.1N6 056.3W4, 39.8N0 058.6W9,
39.2N4 061.3W0, 37.8N8 063.2W1, 34.6N3 063.8W7,
33.1N7 063.6W5, 31.2N6 062.3W1, 29.3N4 060.9W5,
28.7N7 057.5W7, 28.4N4 054.6W5, 27.7N6 052.6W3,
27.1N0 051.6W2, 26.8N6 050.2W7, 26.8N6 048.9W1,
27.1N0 047.4W5, 27.7N6 044.8W6, 28.6N6 039.9W1,
29.8N9 037.2W2, 31.5N9 034.9W6, 33.5N1 033.0W6,
37.1N1 031.0W4, 41.1N6 030.3W6, 43.0N7 031.3W7.
41.8N3 034.4W1,
B. SEAS 18 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
50.4N9 007.1W8, 50.9N4 010.5W6,
53.9N7 011.3W5, 55.8N8 014.0W5, 57.0N2 014.3W8,
58.0N3 013.8W2, 60.1N7 014.3W8, 60.1N7 021.1W4,
58.7N0 023.2W7, 56.5N6 024.2W8, 55.5N5 023.2W7,
55.5N5 018.1W0, 52.9N6 018.2W1, 49.9N2 024.8W4,
50.4N9 028.4W4, 48.6N8 031.0W4, 43.4N1 029.5W6,
40.3N7 025.1W8, 38.0N1 022.1W5, 37.1N1 019.6W6,
36.5N4 018.7W6, 36.0N9 017.9W7, 35.9N7 017.1W9,
35.5N3 016.2W9, 35.2N0 015.2W8, 34.7N4 013.6W0,
36.0N9 010.0W1, 38.5N6 009.9W8, 43.4N1 009.4W3,
44.1N9 008.4W2, 43.9N6 004.5W9, 44.7N5 003.6W9,
46.6N6 004.3W7, 47.6N7 005.1W6, 50.4N9 007.1W8.
MAX SEAS 43FT NEAR 48.2N4 014.8W3.
C. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
51.1N7 010.4W5, 54.5N4 010.8W9,
54.6N5 009.3W2, 55.9N9 008.0W8, 58.0N3 008.5W3,
60.5N1 007.6W3, 61.8N5 011.8W0, 62.6N4 016.5W2,
62.7N5 021.4W7, 64.2N2 026.5W3, 64.0N0 027.4W3,
62.4N2 028.1W1, 59.9N3 027.4W3, 57.0N2 027.5W4,
57.3N5 030.8W1, 57.1N3 033.0W6, 54.7N6 037.7W7,
50.9N4 038.3W4, 51.8N4 045.3W2, 50.8N3 047.5W6,
48.8N0 049.1W4, 48.4N6 051.3W9, 45.8N7 053.1W9,
42.8N4 057.7W9, 42.9N5 061.2W9, 42.0N6 066.1W3,
39.0N2 067.7W0, 35.3N1 067.8W1, 31.7N1 069.2W7,
27.3N2 066.1W3, 27.0N9 065.0W1, 27.0N9 064.7W7,
26.0N8 057.0W2, 25.2N9 055.5W5, 25.1N8 048.7W9,
27.1N0 038.0W1, 30.8N1 028.8W8, 29.1N2 027.8W7,
29.1N2 022.2W6, 31.4N8 016.0W7, 32.5N0 011.6W8,
35.1N9 008.4W2, 36.9N8 009.3W2, 38.6N7 009.5W4,
43.2N9 009.3W2, 43.9N6 008.4W2, 43.6N3 001.6W7,
45.4N3 001.6W7, 47.5N6 004.8W2, 49.1N4 004.7W1,
50.0N5 006.1W7, 51.1N7 006.2W8, 51.1N7 010.4W5.
MAX SEAS 43FT NEAR 48.2N4 014.8W3.
D. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
63.9N8 007.7E4, 64.1N1 005.9E4,
62.4N2 001.8E9, 59.0N4 001.0W1, 57.8N0 000.5W5,
57.1N3 001.9E0, 57.9N1 003.6E9, 60.6N2 003.7E0,
62.3N1 005.3E8, 63.2N1 007.6E3, 63.9N8 007.7E4.
MAX SEAS 15FT NEAR 60.5N1 002.2E4.
E. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
62.0N8 055.4W4, 62.0N8 056.4W5,
61.8N5 057.3W5, 61.5N2 058.3W6, 61.5N2 058.3W6,
61.0N7 059.4W8, 60.5N1 059.8W2, 59.5N9 059.8W2,
59.2N6 058.9W2, 58.8N1 058.3W6, 58.5N8 057.6W8,
58.3N6 056.9W0, 58.5N8 056.4W5, 58.7N0 055.6W6,
59.0N4 055.1W1, 59.4N8 054.4W3, 59.9N3 053.9W7,
60.6N2 053.3W1, 61.6N3 053.8W6, 62.0N8 055.4W4.
MAX SEAS 17FT NEAR 60.4N0 056.9W0.
F. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER BOUNDED BY:
64.5N5 029.9W0, 64.8N8 030.8W1,
63.1N0 036.3W2, 62.0N8 041.0W5, 60.8N4 042.0W6,
59.4N8 043.4W1, 59.1N5 048.8W0, 57.5N7 046.7W7,
57.3N5 043.8W5, 57.5N7 042.4W0, 57.7N9 040.5W9,
58.4N7 038.1W2, 59.2N6 036.0W9, 59.7N1 029.9W0,
61.0N7 029.2W3, 62.1N9 033.3W9, 64.5N5 029.9W0.
MAX SEAS 18FT NEAR 60.5N1 038.6W7.
6. NEXT SCHEDULED WARNING WILL BE 020600Z.//
Storm in the NW Atlantic 958mb




it is in 14-17ºC sst
Storm seems to be finally getting its act together now.
I feel bad for europe if that thing stays together
Quoting mikester:
Storm seems to be finally getting its act together now.
lol, the day has arrived Finally!
Cyclone Oli is at the southeastern end of the expanding ENSO warm pool, staying as a category four:



It's the farthest east category four tropical cyclone in the South Pacific on record.
Still not looking all that impressive though.
So where is oli going anyways? Any land near it?
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
lol, the day has arrived Finally!

That 958MB Low has a central pressure of 28.29", which makes its pressure as low as a strong CAT 2 tropical cyclone, WOW.
Quoting mikester:
So where is oli going anyways? Any land near it?

According to the WU Hurricane map forecast, it's heading SSE towards cooler S Pac waters, no land in its path, thankfully!
Quoting mikester:
So where is oli going anyways? Any land near it?


It's heading parallel to the islands of French Polynesia, which have never seen such a strong storm. It is expected to curve south but bring warm water anomalies along with it to South America and/or Antarctica:

Hmm interesting weather then. A major storm in the middle of the ocean.
Quoting mikester:
Hmm interesting weather then. A major storm in the middle of the ocean.

That is really typical of Tropical Cyclones, most usually miss land.
Quoting mikester:
Yep nystate in general(excluding the snow belts) is way under its snow fall for this winter. Even in some of the snow belts out west of me are under there normal snowfall for a winter. Up north they have had lots of snow this year.


Hey friend, believe me, next winter you will have more snow than you can say grace over. Try to enjoy your brief resbit from the snow!
GFS-Model

check this loop out.. lil crazy for the south!
Does anyone remember the tropical storm off Brazil?


Wasn't that the year the Atlantic storms went crazy?

Is the warm water off the East coast of S Brazil unusual?

Any thoughts?

all I can say is Im enjoying this winter in s fla.. and the weather for the Super Bowl looks like its gonna be frickin outstanding.... let peyton and drew toss the ball to a 50-47 game...... awesome... thats why it (super bowl) belongs down here....
Quoting spathy:
Does anyone remember the tropical storm off Brazil?


Wasn't that the year the Atlantic storms went crazy?

Is the warm water off the East coast of S Brazil unusual?

Any thoughts?


Brazil

U talkin about this one?


picture of the one off of Brazil
Here's a response to the "fudging" of the numbers with last months email hacks. Personally, I don't believe in human induced climate change - but this is still funny.

Link
Paul will also be on KFPA radio in Berkley, CA at 2pm PST Friday. Tune into http://www.kpfa.org/pushing-limits to hear the show. Paul also appeared on WBAI in New York City on January. Check out their archives to hear the interview.

Y'all be sure to listen in...Floodman will be joining me...did the pre-interview today...they're gonna ask me about Weather Underground...
Quoting spathy:
Does anyone remember the tropical storm off Brazil?


Wasn't that the year the Atlantic storms went crazy?

Is the warm water off the East coast of S Brazil unusual?

Any thoughts?

thosetemps off africa look pretty hot compared to 2009 at this time


Chuck!!!!!! Just the man I wanna see!!!! How's tomorrow gonna be?
Yeah weird that the ocean is warmer in some sections and cooler in others. Look how cold the gulf of mexico is and still get ripping storms.
Quoting presslord:
Chuck!!!!!! Just the man I wanna see!!!! How's tomorrow gonna be?


Evening Press. Looks like another Friday washout. 1-2 inches of rain. Crosstown and Market will probably flood at high tide tomorrow which is 12:43 pm. Saturday looks cloudy and drizzly, better Sunday, but chilly.
well Chuck...I'll be in the office all day...drop by if you're on James island...'spect the coffee pot will be full...
Prime Minister says latest Haiti death toll 212,000
Hey folks, I just updated the Portlight website and my blog; go have a look!



Quoting spathy:
Does anyone remember the tropical storm off Brazil?


Wasn't that the year the Atlantic storms went crazy?

Is the warm water off the East coast of S Brazil unusual?

Any thoughts?



The water temperatures in Brazil were above normal since November, and 2004 was the same year that produced a temporary disruption of the Gulf Stream (much like this year), and currently the warm water is coming off the bay between Argentina and Paraguay.

Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


picture of the one off of Brazil


Here's another: Cyclone Catarina of March 2004.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thosetemps off africa look pretty hot compared to 2009 at this time




Also notice how the SST's are essentially "flat" this year due to a slowing of the North Atlantic Gyre.

Quoting presslord:
Prime Minister says latest Haiti death toll 212,000
final nums will not surpass 250,000 hopefully
So still looks like the storm still could track further north then anticipated though. Alot of the radar is still moving north but that pesky jet stream has it stalled in the Carolina's.
Quoting presslord:
Prime Minister says latest Haiti death toll 212,000


Dios mio, :(
Astro,
I'm happy you're watching 'the north atlantic gyre.' Keep it up and keep on thinking.
This world is larger than just a lifetime.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
final nums will not surpass 250,000 hopefully


From your lips to God's ears, but I fear that it will go higher...
Quoting Floodman:


From your lips to God's ears, but I fear that it will go higher...


Hey Floodman, It is storming here. the wind is howling and all.
P.S. WU Mail
My God keep their souls
Boy mobile is getting hammered right now and have been all day. Poor people can't get a break.
Quoting mikester:
Boy mobile is getting hammered right now and have been all day. Poor people can't get a break.


Mobile, AL receives about 60 " of rain a year. Believe it or not, the locals are quite used to their insane weather.

The annual average precipitation at Mobile is 66.29 Inches. Rainfall in is fairly evenly distributed throughout the year. The wettest month of the year is March with an average rainfall of 7.20 Inches.

Just like you're used to receiving about 120" of snow a winter!
Quoting Bordonaro:


Mobile, AL receives about 60+" of rain a year. Believe it or not, the locals are quite used to their insane weaher.

Just like you're used to receiving about 120" of snow a winter!


Some of us aren't just to much rain, It's been raining way to much, Rain needs to go away.
Ah i see. Nice fact to know.
just stopping in for a sec,

my heart and prayers go out to the Haitians,

way to go Purdue! beat IU :)

and ready for the snow (:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Some of us aren't just to much rain, It's been raining way to much, Rain needs to go away.


I feel ya, I have seen the sun in Arlington, TX about 2x in the last 10 days, although we only receive a lil more than 1/2 your normal yearly rainfall, I feel like London, England has moved to Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Mobile, AL receives about 60 " of rain a year. Believe it or not, the locals are quite used to their insane weather.

The annual average precipitation at Mobile is 66.29 Inches. Rainfall in is fairly evenly distributed throughout the year. The wettest month of the year is March with an average rainfall of 7.20 Inches.

Just like you're used to receiving about 120" of snow a winter!


The 10 rainiest cities in the U.S. by amount of annual rainfall include: (lower 48)

1. Mobile, Ala.: 67 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
2. Pensacola, Fla.: 65 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days YEA ME
3. New Orleans, La.: 64 inches average annual rainfall; 59 average annual rainy days
4. West Palm Beach, Fla.: 63 inches average annual rainfall; 58 average annual rainy days
5. Lafayette, La.: 62 inches average annual rainfall; 55 average annual rainy days
6. Baton Rouge, La.: 62 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
7. Miami, Fla.: 62 inches average annual rainfall; 57 average annual rainy days
8. Port Arthur, Texas: 61 inches average annual rainfall; 51 average annual rainy days
9. Tallahassee, Fla.: 61 inches average annual rainfall; 56 average annual rainy days
10. Lake Charles, La.: 58 inches average annual rainfall; 50 average annual rainy days
00Z GFS run, SURFACE MAP 10M wind, 2M temp, for 144HRS TH 2-11 @00Z, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX may see S N O W, again!



And at 156HRS OUT, GFS 00Z SURFACE MAP, 10M wind, 2 M temp- 2/11 12Z*
Quoting Bordonaro:


I feel ya, I have seen the sun in Arlington, TX about 2x in the last 10 days, although we only receive a lil more than 1/2 your normal yearly rainfall, I feel like London, England has moved to Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.


you feel like London, check this out from Indy:

Fog or haze was observed on 22 days, including 16 straight days from the 13th to the 28th. 6 days of dense fog were observed, including four straight days from the 16th to the 19th. The extended period of fog or haze coincided with a prolonged period of cloudy skies that began on the 15th and remained nearly continuous through the 26th.
Whoa! Too cool.

Saints Win Super Bowl, says Madden NFL
by Joe Dodson, games.yahoo.com/plugged in

And the winner is...

Madden NFL popped into headlines today, predicting a sunny Super Bowl win for the New Orleans Saints, and eight months of winter for the Indianapolis Colts.

Every year, Electronic Arts runs a Super Bowl simulation within their video game, Madden NFL. And five out of the last six years, the game's results have predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly. The simulation's only miss was the Giants' Super Bowl XLII victory over the Patriots, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming.

This year, Madden NFL predicts a close Saints victory, with a final score of 35 - 31 over the Colts. According to the game, Drew Brees will be named the MVP after passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Reggie Bush will account for two more touchdowns, one rushing, and one on a punt return.

[Greetings to CatAdjuster, welcome back, so very good to see you. Wear a smile as your umbrella!]
Quoting tornadodude:


you feel like London, check this out from Indy:

Fog or haze was observed on 22 days, including 16 straight days from the 13th to the 28th. 6 days of dense fog were observed, including four straight days from the 16th to the 19th. The extended period of fog or haze coincided with a prolonged period of cloudy skies that began on the 15th and remained nearly continuous through the 26th.


Man, YUCK! We had 60% of the possible sunshine for last month. Through today, we are at 20% of possible sunshine. The sun will be back Saturday, then it will be cloudy from Su-Th of next week.
U.Md. tied for first in the ACC tournament.
Beat Florida State!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Whoa! Too cool.

Saints Win Super Bowl, says Madden NFL
by Joe Dodson, games.yahoo.com/plugged in

And the winner is...

Madden NFL popped into headlines today, predicting a sunny Super Bowl win for the New Orleans Saints, and eight months of winter for the Indianapolis Colts.

Every year, Electronic Arts runs a Super Bowl simulation within their video game, Madden NFL. And five out of the last six years, the game's results have predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly. The simulation's only miss was the Giants' Super Bowl XLII victory over the Patriots, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming.

This year, Madden NFL predicts a close Saints victory, with a final score of 35 - 31 over the Colts. According to the game, Drew Brees will be named the MVP after passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Reggie Bush will account for two more touchdowns, one rushing, and one on a punt return.

[Greetings to CatAdjuster, welcome back, so very good to see you. Wear a smile as your umbrella!]


LOL that's cool
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL that's cool


It's all good! Except for the local news stories about the grocery stores tonight. I didn't go out after the husband talked to his sis at 2pm. Utter madness. 2 off duty-cops hired to assist at Whole Foods. The shelves are very depleted, and not just the staples...junk food too, lol! Lines at the gas stations. Back to the 70s!

I may go out early and scavenge, survivalist hit-and-run style...w/ battle mascara!
The 00Z GFS run leaves Dallas-Ft Worth, TX into the "icebox" with temps running about -15F normal Mo-Fr, with a chance of frozen precip on Th and Fr.

At least this time will be only -15F normal, better than -25F normal in early Jan 2010.

Ok, I wanted a lil more winter, but this is it!







The Surface Low has not developed yet. Still appears to me to develop near Brownsville, Texas.
Close, 3 LOW features. L centers near Brownsville, FL, New Orleans, LA and Mobile, AL

This bouy is just East of Brownsville

Conditions at 42045 as of
(6:00 pm EST)
2300 GMT on 02/04/2010:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 14.0 m/s
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1005.1 mb
Air Temperature (ATMP): 16.7 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 18.2 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 12.0 °C
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


It's all good! Except for the local news stories about the grocery stores tonight. I didn't go out after the husband talked to his sis at 2pm. Utter madness. 2 off duty-cops hired to assist at Whole Foods. The shelves are very depleted, and not just the staples...junk food too, lol! Lines at the gas stations. Back to the 70s!

I may go out early and scavenge, survivalist hit-and-run style...w/ battle mascara!


Sounds like pre hurricane madness. My daughter in Ft Belvoir may be in for a surprise when she heads to the commissary in the morning. Maybe it won't be as bad as the outside world.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Whoa! Too cool.

Saints Win Super Bowl, says Madden NFL
by Joe Dodson, games.yahoo.com/plugged in

And the winner is...

Madden NFL popped into headlines today, predicting a sunny Super Bowl win for the New Orleans Saints, and eight months of winter for the Indianapolis Colts.

Every year, Electronic Arts runs a Super Bowl simulation within their video game, Madden NFL. And five out of the last six years, the game's results have predicted the Super Bowl winner correctly. The simulation's only miss was the Giants' Super Bowl XLII victory over the Patriots, and even Nostradamus couldn't have seen that one coming.

This year, Madden NFL predicts a close Saints victory, with a final score of 35 - 31 over the Colts. According to the game, Drew Brees will be named the MVP after passing for 299 yards and three touchdowns. Reggie Bush will account for two more touchdowns, one rushing, and one on a punt return.

[Greetings to CatAdjuster, welcome back, so very good to see you. Wear a smile as your umbrella!]


Don't count on that happening.....The Colts should win by 14 points....
Going to start to get ugly here soon. Some lightning and thunder to go along with it.

Quoting TampaSpin:


Don't count on that happening.....The Colts should win by 14 points....


No matter who wins, here's a fun fact I just picked up on Nightline...Super Bowl Sunday is the second-largest food consumption day in the U.S. after Thanksgiving! LOL!
Be careful if anyone on here if anyone is from DC because accuweather is expecting snowfall totals of 38" possible. State of Emergency has been declared.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Be careful if anyone on here if anyone is from DC because accuweather is expecting snowfall totals of 38" possible. State of Emergency has been declared.


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
846 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

MDZ016>018-VAZ055>057-051000-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.100205T1500Z-100207T0300Z/
CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-KING GEORGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...
FREDERICKSBURG
846 PM EST THU FEB 4 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO
10 PM EST SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 16 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MID-MORNING...AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
RAPIDLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING
BETWEEN SUNSET FRIDAY TO SUNRISE SATURDAY. THE MOST HAZARDOUS
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE...PRODUCING
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

Link below has article concerning the VA declared "State of Emergency".
Link
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


No matter who wins, here's a fun fact I just picked up on Nightline...Super Bowl Sunday is the second-largest food consumption day in the U.S. after Thanksgiving! LOL!


Buuuuurp!!!!! scuse me
Quoting Jeff9641:
Be careful if anyone on here if anyone is from DC because accuweather is expecting snowfall totals of 38" possible. State of Emergency has been declared.


Oh, Jeff, c'mon, really?...that's what they're saying? That's indecent to scare people that way. Now, way west of the city there's going to be some big numbers, but the locals still have us at around 20, a couple inches more or less.

ADD: Oh good, Bordo posted the NWS and VA Emerg. info...trying to confuse us...j/k thanks, Bob.
This article is from Accuweather.com**


A major snowstorm is taking aim along the Interstate 80 and 95 corridors from Indianapolis to Pittsburgh, New York City, Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. and Richmond.

Midwest
For people in the Ohio Valley states, from Springfield, Ill., to Columbus, Ohio, this could equal or surpass any single snowstorm of the season so far with some locations set to receive 6 inches or more of snow. Plan on slow travel, cancellations and postponements.

Enough snow and ice will occur over the central and southern Plains to create hazardous driving conditions.

Mid-Atlantic
As disruptive as the storm will be in the Midwest and Plains, plan on "no travel" in the Virginias, central and southern Pennsylvania, the Delmarva and much of New Jersey Friday night into Saturday.

Much of this same area will get a foot or more of snow. Accumulations have the potential to reach 2 feet in some areas, matching or exceeding snowfall from the December blizzard.

Since this storm's duration will be less than 24 hours, snowfall rates may reach 3 inches per hour. Storm crews may not be able to keep up.

If you travel during the storm, you will run the risk of getting stuck on the road or waiting for your flight at an airport.

The intense snowfall combined with plunging temperatures and increasing wind are going to result in an all-out blizzard in northern and coastal areas with blowing and drifting snow.

Roads may go from wet to snow covered with near-zero visibility in a matter of minutes.

Southern Edge
Trees and power lines could be downed in parts of Kentucky, northwestern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia and the lower Delmarva Peninsula due to wet snow and ice.

New England
Farther north, the storm will just graze southern New England with a few inches of snow. Folks from upstate New York to Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, will dodge another bullet.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Oh, Jeff, c'mon, really?...that's what they're saying? That's indecent to scare people that way. Now, way west of the city there's going to be some big numbers, but the locals still have us at around 20, a couple inches more or less.

ADD: Oh good, Bordo posted the NWS and VA Emerg. info...trying to confuse us...j/k thanks, Bob.


If the low hugs the coast as it appears....and ramps up the way the models show......36" is easily possible because this low is not going to move out very fast.....LOOK at the timing and dates of the low above.
Okaaaaaaaaay, somebody was goofing on us suckers around here...

TampaSpin, if you don't have a 4-wheel drive you can loan me, then could can't add to the torture fest, lol! Dan won't pick me up, neither, and Atmo already said I can't have his Outback. Geeesh.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Okaaaaaaaaay, somebody was goofing on us suckers around here...

Just concerned, because the GFS called the 12-19-09 snow event, and GFS again has called this snow event for the last 5 days.

AIM, I know you take this event seriously, we all hope others do also :0)!
Don't forget, That much snow on roofs will cave even a sturdy roof in and down. Plan to get someone on yours roofs as fast as possible if you lack much pitch on your roofs.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Just concerned, because the GFS called the 12-19-09 snow event, and GFS again has called this snow event for the last 5 days.

AIM, I know you take this event seriously, we all hope others do also :0)!


On the whole, the Dec. blizzard was a lark because the snow was dry and fluffy (apologies to those caught all night on the highway in W.Va.).
This is going to be wetter and heavier. There's concern because in our older neighborhoods the power lines are still above-ground (including mine and my father-in-law's place). This will be a good test for emergency management, that's for sure. We've had enough of snow, now.

ADD: TS, thanks for reminder about roofs...we all have decent pitch, except a lot of us have added-on rooms, like our family room, and roof is flat...we go out to watch the fireworks on it...will remember to shovel, thanks!

Thanks, everyone, we'll be okay...we've lost power for 3-6 days before...not pleasant, but we get through it. But we DO burn candles for heat...even if that's not the most safe procedure.


Snow is already starting near the coast already......wow!
I just grabbed this from the Cumberland Times-News ("way" up in MD mountains):

For the latest weather and road conditions and to view live traffic cameras during the storm, log onto www.roads.maryland.gov and click on CHART. Customers may also follow SHA at www.twitter.com/mdsha or call the Winter Storm hot line at (800) 327-3125 for a regularly updated message with weather and roadway conditions. To report a nonemergency issue, log onto the Web site and click on the Service Request link from the “Contact Us” page.

I'm going to turn in now, tomorrow may be a long day.
Good night all.
Snow...mainly in the morning. Total snow accumulation more than 2 feet. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

...lmao...this is at my aunts house in the shenandoah valley near staunton....now down in central va where im at theres still alot of uncertainty...its gonna start snowing in a few hours...start mixing in the afternoon with sleet...then switch the sleet and rain in the nighttime hours...then switch back over early in the am then snow the rest of the day...local mets are thinking just 3-12 inches depending on exactly where your located near richmond...

couple mets arent sure we wont get more...the models have shifted ever so slightly south...and the gfs/nam are both sating 6-12 in the richmond area now...so, who knows, guess we will see when it gets here...


and...


that accuweather radar is a joke...if it was even close to being set right i should be getting a moderate sleet right now...lol...and we are dry...their radar is set high 90% of the time, to look worse than it is in my opinion...theres no snow at the coast here in virginia yet...in fact....nothing will be falling in cetral va north till after 6 am...

should be a fun weekend...especially after last saturdays 13 inches and tuesdays nice little sleet mix...yay...and there might be 2 more storms next week??....fun...lets hope for some warmer entrained air...i wouldnt mind a cold rain one bit...

lol...
Quoting TampaSpin:


If the low hugs the coast as it appears....and ramps up the way the models show......36" is easily possible because this low is not going to move out very fast.....LOOK at the timing and dates of the low above.


Tim, plz remember that at first sight, that's mostly vigra falling from the clouds, my friend.
storms r gettin lil strong towards the panhandle of FL.. lovely more thunder and lightning in the middle of the night.. seems like a trend heh..
Can any of you fine people suggest a website for current satellite images of NW Europe (particularly Scandanavia)? I'm looking for something akin to the GOES images we see in the NOAA forecasts.

Thank you very much.
At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Oli (925 hPa) located at 21.6S 150.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving aouth-southeast at 10 knots. Position FAIR based on GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
200 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle, within 420 NM of center in the southern semi-circle

Overall organization remains good with outflow evident in all quadrants. Spiral bands continue to wrap around low level circulation center. Dvorak based on DG eye embedded in B surround and BF of 0.5 yielding DT=5.0

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS.

Northwest deep layer mean flow continues to steer OLI southeast. System lies in a relatively low shear environment and CIMSS indicates increasing shear along forecast track. Global models generally agree on a south southeast and later southeast track with short term intensification before gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.3S 150.0W - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 25.0S 149.4W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 27.6S 147.0W - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TC Oli will be issued at around 14:30 PM UTC...
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
I just grabbed this from the Cumberland Times-News ("way" up in MD mountains):

For the latest weather and road conditions and to view live traffic cameras during the storm, log onto www.roads.maryland.gov and click on CHART. Customers may also follow SHA at www.twitter.com/mdsha or call the Winter Storm hot line at (800) 327-3125 for a regularly updated message with weather and roadway conditions. To report a nonemergency issue, log onto the Web site and click on the Service Request link from the “Contact Us” page.

I'm going to turn in now, tomorrow may be a long day.
Good night all.


Yes, my siste-in-law (who lives in Short Gap) said she had to run up to see the father-in-law over in Frostburg to make sure he was set for two or three days in case it took a plow that long to get to his house. Thank God I married the daughter who lives down here in FL!! BTW, for a desktop I have a picture from the Times that shows that street where they do the farmers market and bands covered in snow from back in Dec. Beautiful up there! In the summer.... :)
Oli hit tahiti


200 km/h winds and up to 6 m waves. 300 homes destroyed.
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,676099,00.html

Sorry for posting this strange video but the others are all banned from yt.


San Miguel de Allende is the seat of the municipality of Allende, Guanajuato, Mexico, a historic town founded in 1542 that has become an attractive tourist destination for wealthy Mexico City residents and has a large American and Canadian expatriate community composed primarily of retirees.







Pluto

Looks like Pluto is changing colors.. hmm
Penn State inquiry finds no evidence for allegations against Michael Mann
"Hockey Stick" scientist vindicated once again


http://climateprogress.org/2010/02/04/penn-state-michael-mann-hockey-stick-science/

The Age of Stupid stars Postlethewaite as an old man living in the devastated world of 2055, watching ‘archival’ footage from 2008 and asking, ‘why didn’t we stop climate change whilst we still had the chance?’ In the crucial lead-up to December’s UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen, where the successor to the Kyoto treaty will be decided, this is a question that hopefully future generations will never be forced to ask.


Good morning, and I'm out :P

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

The Age of Stupid stars Postlethewaite as an old man living in the devastated world of 2055, watching ‘archival’ footage from 2008 and asking, ‘why didn’t we stop climate change whilst we still had the chance?’ In the crucial lead-up to December’s UN Climate Summit in Copenhagen, where the successor to the Kyoto treaty will be decided, this is a question that hopefully future generations will never be forced to ask.




Dude, There is one of the biggest winter storms about to hit the east coast today and germany was basically stopped due to heavy snow thei winter has been one of the coldest in record and you are still talking about that global warming crap which conveniently you all changed its name to climate change. yes 50 years from now people will look back to us and say what a whole bunch of morons letting big brother tax them to oblivion under such a false pretense. My God I am so happy about the fact that no matter how much you all talk you are and will always be a minority. Global warming my butt....
Two democrats (!!!) introduced legislation to stop the EPA from regulating greenhouse gases. Talk about the age of stupid indeed!
I guess Canehunter never learned the difference between "weather" and "climate".

"..conveniently you all changed its name to climate change.."

The Age of Stupid indeed.
714. P451
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Pluto

Looks like Pluto is changing colors.. hmm


Is it undergoing Advanced Global Warming?


*runs*

olii is near tahiti good luck to them the last big el nino there was one that was very erractic moving back and forth
717. IKE
The believers vs. the non-believers.

Same arguing back and forth.

I wish WU had an ignore feature related to any and all GW posts/blogs. I would certainly use it.
Quoting P451:


Is it undergoing Advanced Global Warming?


*runs*



Maybe the next KIOTO protocol should be applicable to Pluto as well.
720. IKE
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


You can always shut your computer off. We are paying customers just like you and the forum is wether or climate related. So unless you are an admin suck it up or go.


LOL....sure ole bud.
Quoting leftovers:
olii is near tahiti good luck to them the last big el nino there was one that was very erractic moving back and forth
wasnt one island hit three times? anyone remember that storm?
"who is the stupid..."

BWWWWHAHAHAHAHA. Got me. I guess I'm teh stoopit.

and..."KIOTO?" Who are you people? Reeeeely....
Quoting IKE:


LOL....sure ole bud.


No offense meant. anyway I am done fighting. it just concerns me that such an untested theory is be taken so seriously to the point in which we might get taxed penalized and our economy destroyed due to it.
Dude, There is one of the biggest winter storms about to hit the east coast today and germany was basically stopped due to heavy snow thei winter has been one of the coldest in record and you are still talking about that global warming crap which conveniently you all changed its name to climate change. yes 50 years from now people will look back to us and say what a whole bunch of morons letting big brother tax them to oblivion under such a false pretense. My God I am so happy about the fact that no matter how much you all talk you are and will always be a minority. Global warming my butt....
__
With an increase of energy in the climate system - weather and climate patterns behave more fluctuative. This means it tends to varie plus/negative on a chart in both direction - just that the overall trend is towards further increase of released energy - more heat. This means more disorder - more varibility with observed weather/climate.

For example, when boiling water the molecules inside the water become more disordered - more varibility - less harmony and order.
When you than put a frog into the water before you start boiling, the frog will not notice the temperature increase in time.
You cannot blame the frog - but you can blame the stupidity of humans, which destroy the balance of the climate by fueling it with greenhouse gases.
This ordered/balanced climate state was the ground for our race and civilizations.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


On the whole, the Dec. blizzard was a lark because the snow was dry and fluffy (apologies to those caught all night on the highway in W.Va.).
This is going to be wetter and heavier. There's concern because in our older neighborhoods the power lines are still above-ground (including mine and my father-in-law's place). This will be a good test for emergency management, that's for sure. We've had enough of snow, now.

ADD: TS, thanks for reminder about roofs...we all have decent pitch, except a lot of us have added-on rooms, like our family room, and roof is flat...we go out to watch the fireworks on it...will remember to shovel, thanks!

Thanks, everyone, we'll be okay...we've lost power for 3-6 days before...not pleasant, but we get through it. But we DO burn candles for heat...even if that's not the most safe procedure.


This came from my friend in Baltimore.

I am sticking my tongue at all people in Florida - just so you know. :)~



FW:

Hello all,

My team leader just got out of our daily 9am meeting (National Weather
Service). He said that the total accumulation for this weekend has now been
bumped up to 3 1/2 feet of snow. Followed by this storm there will be
another storm next week Tuesday night into Thursday. You probably heard
about that on the news. After that storm it looks like another storm will
be
here that next weekend 2/14. The meteorologist was explaining to me about
the moisture that is coming from the west coast, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Ocean that is mixed with our cold temps and causing us to continue to have
snow and heavy snow at times. I actually saw the next storm (next weekend)
on the radar. WOW!!!

I am saying all of this to you to go to the store TODAY and stock up. Who
knows when we will get out of our homes. I also wanted to give you a head
start to the stores since the news reporters have not announced this yet.
Quoted from Jeff
I agree this is not an exaggeration(from JB) if you look at the models we are entering a cold 2 weeks at least. With storms every few days affecting the south.

Yep...Now no one can complain this coming Arctic Express will be wasted cold air!!! Winter ain't over yet!

-NAO

-AO(-6)

PNA

Looks like Joe Bastardi is head on with this next onslaught(with the exception of timing again)!
I guess one thing is for sure in all this. The absence of water vapor seen in the past is all but history. Globally, cyclones seem to be spinning up at will, both Tropical and Non-Tropical.

The ITCZ seems to be creeping it's way up.
Morning, Hey jeff9641 my brother lives in south cen pa. He said they are looking at 24+ by sat night.
70f windy 10-20 se winds e cen florida
Quoting severstorm:
Morning, Hey jeff9641 my brother lives in south cen pa. He said they are looking at 24+ by sat night.


Morning to you 2 brother! Got some big rain and maybe strong storms coming this afternoon.
Based on the frequency of surface lows popping up in the gulf. As season nears I wouldn't be surprised to see a sub-tropical and a tropical storm spin up pre-season.
Quoting weatherbro:
Quoted from Jeff
I agree this is not an exaggeration(from JB) if you look at the models we are entering a cold 2 weeks at least. With storms every few days affecting the south.


Yep...Now no one can complain this coming Arctic Express will be wasted cold air!!! Winter ain't over yet!

-NAO

-AO(-6)

PNA

Looks like Joe Bastardi is head on with this next onslaught(with the exception of timing again)!


I had my doubts about the cold but it looks as if you were right. Also get ready next week because there are hints of a major storm for Florida late next week with snow on the NW side and this may shoot up the East Coast. Get ready because we are in a dangerous pattern and this should continue for the next few weeks.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


You can always shut your computer off. We are paying customers just like you and the forum is wether or climate related. So unless you are an admin suck it up or go.
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


No offense meant. anyway I am done fighting. it just concerns me that such an untested theory is be taken so seriously to the point in which we might get taxed penalized and our economy destroyed due to it.


Lol no offense meant.... :P

anyway, how's the weather?
Evening all



Lightning strikes homes as storm hits NSW

A wild storm has caused flash flooding and thousands of power outages as it moves south from the New South Wales central coast.

Up to 25 millimetres of rain has been dumped in two hours and the weather bureau has issued a severe thunderstorm warning for the Sydney metropolitan area.

Energy Australia says power has been restored to 2,500 homes and businesses, but 3,500 are still in blackout.

Sydney Airport has reopened after closing down for half an hour, delaying a dozen flights.

Further south, three properties have been struck by lightning - two homes in Wollongong and a unit block near Botany Bay.

No-one has been injured.

A small number of properties at Merrylands in Sydney's west are also without power.

Energy Australia spokesman Anthony O'Brien said crews were still assessing the damage.

"The worst affected regions are Gosford, West Gosford and Narara region where the storms have come through," he said.

"You'll find it's either lightning or branches coming into contact with powerlines that's taken out three distribution cables in that area."

- ABC
More than a splash for eastern parts of Oz


Forget extreme heat and drought; eastern Australia is copping a real splash as widespread storms and showers are unleashed upon New South Wales and Queensland, according to weatherzone.com.au.

In the last 48 hours collected rainfall has ranged anywhere from 10 millimetres to 210 millimetres, with the best rainfall in years for some locations.

To 9am this morning parts of the inland Illawarra have been deluged with more than 100 millimetres. This includes Robertson, picking up 185 millimetres, the wettest day in at least five years.

Further north Katoomba collected 71 millimetres to 9am, the wettest it's been since last April. This torrential downpour was able to create landslides elsewhere in the Blue Mountains.

Today the rainfall has persisted as remnant moisture from the now deceased tropical cyclone Olga is drawn south by a broad trough.

Storms are now raging across a good portion of the state, with flash flooding events a-plenty.

Gosford recorded nine millimetres in 10 minutes and Goulburn eight millimetres in 10 minutes.

In a few short hours Parkes has received 33 millimetres.

The heavy falls are set over the weekend tomorrow as the trough stalls over NSW.

- Weatherzone
Quoting Jeff9641:


This came from my friend in Baltimore.

I am sticking my tongue at all people in Florida - just so you know. :)~



FW:

Hello all,

My team leader just got out of our daily 9am meeting (National Weather
Service). He said that the total accumulation for this weekend has now been
bumped up to 3 1/2 feet of snow. Followed by this storm there will be
another storm next week Tuesday night into Thursday. You probably heard
about that on the news. After that storm it looks like another storm will
be
here that next weekend 2/14. The meteorologist was explaining to me about
the moisture that is coming from the west coast, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Ocean that is mixed with our cold temps and causing us to continue to have
snow and heavy snow at times. I actually saw the next storm (next weekend)
on the radar. WOW!!!

I am saying all of this to you to go to the store TODAY and stock up. Who
knows when we will get out of our homes. I also wanted to give you a head
start to the stores since the news reporters have not announced this yet.


No possible way were getting 3.5 feet. We will be more likely in the range of 18 inches to 26!!! I'm no meteorologist but thats just reckless telling people stuff like that.
Hey jeff9641, I will take all the rain we can get.Thanks for the heads up. Later
Quoting usa777:


No possible way were getting 3.5 feet. We will be more likely in the range of 18 inches to 26!!! I'm no meteorologist but thats just reckless telling people stuff like that.


Yeah, I saw that DC now might get 30 inches, looks like they are gonna get more snow
Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-VAZ028-031-042-
052>057-501-502-WVZ050>053-503-504-052215-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0006.100205T1500Z-100207T0300Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-
FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-
BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...
LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...
CHARLES TOWN...EMORYVILLE...HARTMANSVILLE...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY
904 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
SATURDAY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 28 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN MID-MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OCCURRING FROM SUNSET THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOST HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT.

* VISIBILITIES...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE...PRODUCING
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CONDITIONS IN THIS STORM ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMPARABLE TO THOSE
OF THE STORM OF 19 DECEMBER. PLAN FOR SUBSTANTIAL DISRUPTIONS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS TO NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TONIGHT.

&&

$$

KRAMAR




Quoting Jeff9641:


This came from my friend in Baltimore.

I am sticking my tongue at all people in Florida - just so you know. :)~



FW:

Hello all,

My team leader just got out of our daily 9am meeting (National Weather
Service). He said that the total accumulation for this weekend has now been
bumped up to 3 1/2 feet of snow. Followed by this storm there will be
another storm next week Tuesday night into Thursday. You probably heard
about that on the news. After that storm it looks like another storm will
be
here that next weekend 2/14. The meteorologist was explaining to me about
the moisture that is coming from the west coast, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Ocean that is mixed with our cold temps and causing us to continue to have
snow and heavy snow at times. I actually saw the next storm (next weekend)
on the radar. WOW!!!

I am saying all of this to you to go to the store TODAY and stock up. Who
knows when we will get out of our homes. I also wanted to give you a head
start to the stores since the news reporters have not announced this yet.


OKAY! This is some News We Can Use. Not in DC yet but snow is hitting ground just a bit south. It is snowing off of 81 in Edinburgh, VA (station met just thanked a viewer for that).

I still have some hotel points left over from deployments... if we lose power, and IF we could get there (huge IF), I am not above opting for comfort over testing my wimpy cold-weather (non) grit.
108 degrees in Texas I toughed out (not too shabby for a middle-aged matron of MD, giving myself a pat on the back, I admit), but this might be brutal. I hope the Ride-On bus will have a heart and allow the little fur-kids (if the buses even run). I guess I can always wrap the "kids" in a blankie and tell everyone I have "fugly & challenged" grandchildren. :)
Quoting usa777:


No possible way were getting 3.5 feet. We will be more likely in the range of 18 inches to 26!!! I'm no meteorologist but thats just reckless telling people stuff like that.


LOL -- birds of a feather. That's what I told him last night! But if his team leader REALLY told him that??? G-d, where's STORMW when we really need him! Storm, I know you're busy, but, but PLEASE COME IN, SOS -- blog in dire need -- Semper Fidelis!!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


LOL -- birds of a feather. That's what I told him last night! But if his team leader REALLY told him that??? G-d, where's STORMW when we really need him! Storm, I know you're busy, but, but PLEASE COME IN, SOS -- blog in dire need -- Semper Fidelis!!


_______________________

Us people from Maryland are pretty darn smart huh? lol
Quoting usa777:


_______________________

Us people from Maryland are pretty darn smart huh? lol


We have to learn who's blowing smoke up our arses while we're still in diapers! There's so much hot air coming out of DC, Annapolis and Baltimore we have our very own version of "warming." Ever notice how we have rainstorms at the end of the day when everyone is opening the doors to leave the government offices?
Be sure to tune in this afternoon @ 5P EST to hear me and Floodman on Radio Free Welfare Hippie


Link
water vapor pretty impressive
My buddy who works at the Mitigation Directorate at FEMA is calling this storm "Snowpocolypse"... :-)
Quoting TampaTom:
My buddy who works at the Mitigation Directorate at FEMA is calling this storm "Snowpocolypse"... :-)


I want it noted that I am not the one who posted the 4-letter word, er, acronym!

(Seriously, thank you Tom, your comments are always very much appreciated, and please keep us posted! Pls. remember to send my regards to management of the floor-sweeping and window-cleaning departments...)

ADD: The Pandas have landed in China :(
its really sad when it is 33 degrees, and rain,, in central nc , why cant it just snow
Quoting usa777:


No possible way were getting 3.5 feet. We will be more likely in the range of 18 inches to 26!!! I'm no meteorologist but thats just reckless telling people stuff like that.


This came from your NWS office my friend Lives in Baltimore and this is what she sent me after there conference call. Sorry!!
Lefty checking in. Snow has started here in Central VA.

Calling for 1-2 feet. Sounds like fun
Can someone have a look at this RADAR and tell me what they think is happening here. The moisture seems to be coming from 1 place and its streaming away from it like a running tap.
Quoting leftyy420:
Lefty checking in. Snow has started here in Central VA.

Calling for 1-2 feet. Sounds like fun


ROFL.. first thought... sounds can be deceiving :)
Quoting leftyy420:
Lefty checking in. Snow has started here in Central VA.

Calling for 1-2 feet. Sounds like fun


just started here as well, coming down hard thats for sure, only 3-5 inches here :( but more next week :)
Quoting AussieStorm:
Can someone have a look at this RADAR and tell me what they think is happening here. The moisture seems to be coming from 1 place and its streaming away from it like a running tap.


it looks a lot like lake effect snow does, but obviously its not :p
Quoting tornadodude:


just started here as well, coming down hard thats for sure, only 3-5 inches here :( but more next week :)


We still have over 6"+ on the ground from the last 2 storms. Kids went to school 1 day last week. And that was a delayed opening lol.

I have huge piles from shoveling the sidewalk and driveway. Have no idea where I will be putting the snow from this storm. Lol
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

(Seriously, thank you Tom, your comments are always very much appreciated, and please keep us posted! Pls. remember to send my regards to management of the floor-sweeping and window-cleaning departments...


Sure can... Anticipating some severe weather activity here on Florida's west coast this afternoon....
Well it appears likely the cold will return by Valentine's Day Weekend...

6-10 Days

8-14 Days
Quoting usa777:


No possible way were getting 3.5 feet. We will be more likely in the range of 18 inches to 26!!! I'm no meteorologist but thats just reckless telling people stuff like that.


Maybe you might want to tell this to your local mets. in Maryland buddy. This is what the NWS said in a conference call that my Friend attended yesterday. So don't get snappy with me because I'll be enjoying 80 degrees today in Orlando. Piece out!LOL
Quoting tornadodude:


it looks a lot like lake effect snow does, but obviously its not :p

its a moisture line. nothing on the NE side but on the SW side its like a running tap. And there is nothing wrong with the RADAR. I have checked the RADAR just south of Sydney and its there also.
Quoting TampaTom:


Sure can... Anticipating some severe weather activity here on Florida's west coast this afternoon....


Tampa, Venice, Sarasota? Want to check in with friends... Sorry, it's all I can do to keep up with Mid-Atlantic today.

Take care, stay safe, regards, thanks and all that.
763. IKE
Rain just about finished here in the western Florida panhandle.

1.66 inches of rain.

61.2 degrees outside....right now.
Good Morning Folks. Cannot speak for the rest of the SE but so far so good in the Florida Big Bend region. Rain is steady but relatively light and not too bad....Have to wait until later in the day to see where the low heads in terms of where the "training" bands set up for potential flooding but not as bad as anticpated at the moment in the Tallahassee area.
Quoting IKE:
Rain just about finished here in the western Florida panhandle.

1.66 inches of rain.

61.2 degrees outside....right now.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. Cannot speak for the rest of the SE but so far so good in the Florida Big Bend region. Rain is steady but relatively light and not too bad....Have to wait until later in the day to see where the low heads in terms of where the "training" bands set up for potential flooding but not as bad as anticpated at the moment in the Tallahassee area.


Looks like C FL is in store for a big rain and storm event. Storms seem to be intensifying off of Tampa.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Tampa, Venice, Sarasota? Want to check in with friends... Sorry, it's all I can do to keep up with Mid-Atlantic today.

Take care, stay safe, regards, thanks and all that.


I'm in Clearwater, and the ETA for the bad stuff is in the 1 - 3 p.m. timeframe...
Quoting presslord:
Be sure to tune in this afternoon @ 5P EST to hear me and Floodman on Radio Free Welfare Hippie


Link


Ummm, wait a minute, we're not going on Rush Limbaugh?
Quoting StormW:


Looking real quick, until I can fine tune it...Baltimore....12-16"


Oh good, you "heard" and came in! I'll wait around...I was just thinking of braving the pillaging hordes at the grocery, chickened out yesterday...a procrastination excuse is very welcome!
Quoting StormW:


Looking real quick, until I can fine tune it...Baltimore....12-16"


HPC is forecasting 2.5-3.0" of qpf over Baltimore.



Even at 10:1, ratios could be as high as 15:1 on Saturday, thats 25-30 inches of snow. Almost double your quick look.

Baltimore will see atleast 20 inches imho.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Looks like C FL is in store for a big rain and storm event. Storms seem to be intensifying off of Tampa.


Timing is everything....More daytime heating down there when the system goes through but the advancing cloud sheild will hopefully keeps things on the cooler side at the surface......
A Portlight update: the truck with our latest shipment is now following Richard Lumarque to our staging area at Quisqueya University; from there the entire load will be delivered to St Nicholas Hospital...

Thanks to all of you who helped make this shipment and the next and the one after that possible!

Overcast should keep the severe threat at bay in the SE Peninsula however, with the low tracking further south this time around, shear will be high all the way through so Isolated Strong to Severe will not be out of the question as the front gets closer to you.
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR MID-ATLANTIC WINTER STORM
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2010

...HEAVY SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICING EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BOUNDING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. IN ADDITION...BLIZZARD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST FROM DELAWARE NORTH TO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY.

FLOOD AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM EAST CENTRAL
GEORGIA NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM GEORGIA TO NORTH
CAROLINA.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 AM EST...BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...A 1003 MB
(29.62 INCHES) LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED NORTH OF
EVERGREEN...ALABAMA AND WAS MOVING NORTH AT 19 MPH. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE BREAKING OUT ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WHICH WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED
THROUGH SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND OFFSHORE. WITHIN THIS
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN NORTH CAROLINA. IN
ADDITION...ANOTHER AREA OF FREEZING RAIN WAS REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA. SOUTH OF THE AXIS OF WINTRY
WEATHER...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 700 PM EST THU FEB
04 THROUGH 900 AM EST FRI FEB 05...

...NORTH CAROLINA ...
BLOWING ROCK 2.8 ENE 8.0
FOSCOE 1.2 WSW 7.0
BOONE 0.3 NNW 6.0
MEAT CAMP 2.2 S 6.0
MILLERS CREEK 8.6 N 6.0
TODD 1.5 E 5.2
CASHIERS 5.0
LAKE TOXAWAY 5.0
LINVILLE FALLS 0.5 SW 4.8
BREVARD 1.2 NNW 4.5
MARION 2.1 NNW 4.1
NORTH WILKESBORO 15 NW 4.0

...VIRGINIA...
INDEPENDENCE 2.2 E 3.5
ELK CREEK 3.0 SNOW/SLEET MIX


AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
THIS EVENING...THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA
COAST. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE
OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND EASTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY. BY TONIGHT...THE
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE DELAWARE/NEW JERSEY COAST
WESTWARD THROUGH THE D.C. METROPOLITAN AREA AND INTO EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA. WITHIN THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW...WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURROUNDING THIS
AREA...6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMONPLACE. ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE SOUTHERN AND LOWER CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...FROM NORTH
CARLINA TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED.
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AT 400 PM EST. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
EVENT.

Link
Everybody went to NEW BLOG while I was listening to tunes...
Flood - this is great news! Do you think Bill Clintons presence will speed up the distribution of the mountains of goods that are sitting at the airport? I will try and tune in to the Welfare Hippy station this afternoon. Too funny :) And, thank you for the update last night on the Barometer Bob show. Robyn
Quoting lilElla:
Flood - this is great news! Do you think Bill Clintons presence will speed up the distribution of the mountains of goods that are sitting at the airport? I will try and tune in to the Welfare Hippy station this afternoon. Too funny :) And, thank you for the update last night on the Barometer Bob show. Robyn


One can only hope; the problem is that when you listen in on the conference calls for USAID they make it sound like there are no problems...everyone is being fed...Haiti is one big happy family...