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El Niño Watch issued by NOAA; Western Caribbean development next week?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on June 05, 2009

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch yesterday, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. As I discussed in detail in last Friday's post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.


Figure 1. Departure from average of the heat content of the upper 300 meters of the ocean in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. Much of this increase in heat content is due to a large area of waters 2 - 4°C warmer than average at the thermocline (a depth of 50 - 150 meters). The heat content of the ocean has been steadily increasing since January, consistent with a developing El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediciton Center.

Western Caribbean development possible next week
An area of disturbed weather has developed over Central America and the adjacent waters of the Eastern Pacific and Western Caribbean, associated with a tropical wave interacting with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the Eastern Pacific. This disturbance has generated 1 - 2 inches of rain over Costa Rica and western Panama over the past day, and is likely to bring 4 - 6 more inches of rain to those areas and Nicaragua over the next 3 - 4 days, as the storm drifts northwards into the Western Caribbean. The subtropical jet stream, which is currently bringing high wind shear to the Caribbean, is expected to shift northwards next week, bringing low wind shear to the region. The last few runs of several of our major dynamical computer weather forecast models have been pointing to the possible development of a tropical depression southwest of Jamaica by Thursday of next week. Heavy rains from the disturbance should spread into Jamaica and Cuba by Thursday and Friday, and may affect the Bahamas, Haiti, and South Florida 7 - 8 days from now.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Central American disturbance expected to cross over into the Western Caribbean next week.

I'll have an update this weekend, probably on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. Levi32
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Someone is up early! Isn't it 5am up there?


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.
2002. Ossqss
Mornin, it was stated in a previous online show with the good Doc, that the model forecasting of the El Nino was a very difficult thing and not very accurate.

I had asked several times what the impact of the transition from La to El would do to the modeling (GFS etc) and if that modeling was even taking that it into consideration from a code stand point. I have not obtained any answers.

It does seem the models are erratic at best and I was just curious if they are falling victim to the changes that are currently underway and not able to quantify things appropriately.

Does anyone have any insight on this item or am I just barking up the wrong tree?
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds
2004. Patrap
A slight downgrade on the seasons numbers eh Taz..?
2005. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


5?
Quoting Levi32:


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.


Not much happening lately with your Geothermal generator ?
2008. IKE
Quoting Ossqss:
Mornin, it was stated in a previous online show with the good Doc, that the model forecasting of the El Nino was a very difficult thing and not very accurate.

I had asked several times what the impact of the transition from La to El would do to the modeling (GFS etc) and if that modeling was even taking that it into consideration from a code stand point. I have not obtained any answers.

It does seem the models are erratic at best and I was just curious if they are falling victim to the changes that are currently underway and not able to quantify things appropriately.

Does anyone have any insight on this item or am I just barking up the wrong tree?


I don't know. I don't trust models for showing tropical development. The GFS has become last years CMC.
2009. bcn
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


overrating El Niño effects?
Quoting IKE:


5?



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss
2011. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Not much happening lately with your Geothermal generator lately?


Not sure what you mean.
Quoting Levi32:


Not sure what you mean.


ROFL, Redoubt
lol gotta love the swings on this blog. Never consistent.
2014. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss


I'll have it waiting....

Quoting bcn:


overrating El Niño effects?




yes El Niño effects even CA have been feeling some effects from El Niño right now
This is going to be a very quite season.
My prediction:

11 named storms
5 Hurricanes
2 Major
2017. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


ROFL, Redoubt


LOL....no she almost seems to be asleep again after all these weeks but her lava dome is still growing and could collapse at any moment with no warning.
2018. Patrap
I trust my eyes in the near term and ,well the models are just insight to what MAY occur downstream thru time.
Yesterday some were Splitting Hairs and troughs to fit a scenario.
Best to wait till one sees the Genesis forming before committing to a Genesis.
Best bet,..follow the trend and the Docs entries,they will show the way.
Quoting Patrap:
A slight downgrade on the seasons numbers eh Taz..?



yes
Quoting Weather456:
lol gotta love the swings on this blog. Never consistent.


7 days into the season.. and I think Taz considers it a bust.
Quoting Tazmanian:



yes 5 the way things are going out there with the on going high wind shear i dont see how we can make it up too 10 or more name stormss


lol well Taz can't say you did not give your reason. Have to respect that.

But it's June 7, we have some 5 months 3 weeks to go.
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll
Quoting Levi32:


LOL....no she almost seems to be asleep again after all these weeks but her lava dome is still growing and could collapse at any moment with no warning.


Lava domes worry me..... St Helens comes to mind, I was in Portland at the time.
2025. Levi32
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll


5 storms is a bust.....LOL
weather456 has CA been feeling some El Niño effects? has of late???
(zoomiami) the colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise. This is what we call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Hope that helps. Adrian
2028. Patrap
Stick with your numbers Taz,...you seems to always know the right trends thru time Buddy.

2029. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Lava domes worry me..... St Helens comes to mind, I was in Portland at the time.


Lucky you.....I hope the nasty thing grows over into a permanent dome and doesn't erupt again.
Quoting Levi32:


5 storms is a bust.....LOL



oh
Quoting Patrap:
Stick with your numbers Taz,...you seems to always know the right trends thru time Buddy.




ok
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes El Niño effects even CA have been feeling some effects from El Niño right now



El Nino will not disrupt the hurricane season as much as you are predicting Taz. Even though california is feeling the effects of el nino several other areas are not remember 2004 was an el nino year.

My prediction for the year:
12-14 named storms
4-6 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

I do not like the hurricane forecasts that don't give a range of numbers because hurricanes are very unpredictable and to give 1 number for each category in my opinion is irresponsible that is why i find NOAA forecast the most important compared to CSU and TSR
Even if the tropical mess doesn't form it may still push it mositure over florida which maybe just as bad. We have gone from not a enough to to much in 3 weeks.
Quoting Levi32:


Lucky you.....I hope the nasty thing grows over into a permanent dome and doesn't erupt again.


Umm I don't think it can do that? A nice slow collapse would be nice.
2035. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
LOL did i say it was a bust???



if it this slow in july and augs then we wont see any name stroms at alll


2036. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


Umm I don't think it can do that? A nice slow collapse would be nice.


Well the way I understand it eruptions like this can grow several domes in a row that successively collapse...but eventually a permanent one grows and seals everything off and the magma retreats for another decade.

And there is no such thing as a "slow collapse" lol.
Quoting Weather456:
WS,

saying Andrew (and Wilma in a previous post) started out fighting shear or as a disorganize showers in reference to this situation is not being real. While both storms, as many do, started out with the said conditions, they occured different times of the year under different circumstances. Frankly it's quiet disturbing how you portrayed it.

But it's all cool bro, but you can compare it to an invest or a tropical depression, lol, not those monsters.


You're right, Weather456! I'll behave from this point on forth. I also stand corrected by you sir.
2001- Oops. lol....I was probably thinking of Hawaii

I see we are discussing numbers for the season. Here are the numbers I drew out of a hat, and later confirmed by a magic 8 ball:

Named Storms- 13
Hurricanes- 5
Major Hurricanes- 2
2039. Patrap
Friday in Volusia County you can Blog Live from the already IMPACTED area of the State instead of here.
Lets see a big turnout for yer neighbors whom need help.

You'll benefit ,and so will they.
2040. Patrap
And there is no such thing as a "slow collapse" lol.

Guess you never been to some NOLA Clubs in the French Quarter late then?..

LOL
Taz, I don't know a whole lot about how El Nino effects the Western United States most of what I know about El Nino is concentrated in the tropics. But:

I can tell you that El Nino effects in California are weaker in Summer/Autumn that in Winter/Spring. So if El Nino is on the way, it might be strong peresence now in your parts that if it was January.

Quoting Twinkster:



El Nino will not disrupt the hurricane season as much as you are predicting Taz. Even though california is feeling the effects of el nino several other areas are not remember 2004 was an el nino year.

My prediction for the year:
12-14 named storms
4-6 hurricanes
1-3 major hurricanes

I do not like the hurricane forecasts that don't give a range of numbers because hurricanes are very unpredictable and to give 1 number for each category in my opinion is irresponsible that is why i find NOAA forecast the most important compared to CSU and TSR


Imagine that...we both agree on how many storms we'll see this season.
2043. Ossqss
Quoting Tazmanian:
i am lowering my name storms from 14 name storms to 5 name storm 2 hurricanes and 0 cat 3 storms or higher winds


Humm, here is what we have on the records :)

Tazmanian,15,8,4,1,6-05
2044. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:
Taz, I don't know a whole lot about how El Nino effects the Western United States most of what I know is concentrated in the tropics. But:

I can tell you that El Nino effects in California are weaker in Summer/Autumn that in Winter/Spring. So if El Nino is on the way, it might be strong peresence now in your parts that if it was January.



Glad to see I'm not the only one who retreats to that graphic whenever I need to know something about El Nino's affects on the world outside the tropics....lol.
Morning all. Hope everybody has a great weekend!

Can somebody tell me what an El Nino year (or I guess the start of one) would mean for Texas? Thanks.
Here's a bump as some were wondering the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

The colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise.This is what you call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Adrian
Quoting hurricane23:
Here's a bump as some were wondering the interaction of the temps at the 500 mb with the severity of the thunderstorms?

The colder the temperatures are aloft, the greater potential the air has to rise.This is what you call instability.Greater instability can lead to stronger and severe thunderstorms.

Adrian


Thanks! Good to know.
Which ENSO cycle explains this- Link
2049. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


7am lol.....was up at 6am watching French Open Tennis Final.


Same here. Congrats to Federer. Favorite Player.
2050. Patrap
A Large T-Storm Anvil from Orbit...

.
Quoting rainraingoaway:
Morning all. Hope everybody has a great weekend!

Can somebody tell me what an El Nino year (or I guess the start of one) would mean for Texas? Thanks.


See post 2041 456 has a nice map that shows what to expect.
2053. Drakoen
Quoting cycloone:
This is going to be a very quite season.
My prediction:

11 named storms
5 Hurricanes
2 Major


Quite is an ambiguous word in describing hurricane season. What if 6 of those storms made landfall. It wouldn't exactly be considered quite.
2054. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


Same here. Congrats to Federer. Favorite Player.


Yeah I'm very happy for him. I remember watching Sampras when I was like 8 and I got annoyed that he won all the time lol. Glad Federer could tie him up. Best player in the world.
2055. Patrap
I like Ping-Pong..much mo challenging ,and you can play it with a Beer in one Hand,too.

2056. IKE
Hmmm...do I bite? GFS 12Z at 72 hrs....

2057. Patrap
Dont do it Ike...I smell sumthing cooking,and it aint Chicken,LOL
2058. Drakoen
There's a pretty decent area of mid level turning still. While I appreciate and I highly value the dynamical computer forecast models. Sometimes these things can just pop. If the upper trough doesn't amplify enough it could easily give way to something.
2059. sfla82
Quoting Drakoen:


Quite is an ambiguous word in describing hurricane season. What if 6 of those storms made landfall. It wouldn't exactly be considered quite.

Won't happen!
Tyvm sportguy!
2061. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Dont do it Ike...I smell sumthing cooking,and it aint Chicken,LOL


I'm laughing as my wife walks in the room....
2062. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I'm very happy for him. I remember watching Sampras when I was like 8 and I got annoyed that he won all the time lol. Glad Federer could tie him up. Best player in the world.


I agree he is the best player in the world. Nadal has a ways to go to reach Federer dominance. Rolland-Garros basically proved all that Federer is made of.
Current ENSO episodes are out for March-April-May

-0.1

A striking similiar rate of warming as 2006 and 2004.
2064. Drakoen
I'm going to keep an open mind but i still say development is not likely.
2065. Patrap
Im favoring the BOC IKE,shes a Lonely spot,never no Bloggers jaw-jacking her up.

Sneaky Lil corner for a slice of energy to coalesce in to a Lil Spin -up..Dolly Style.
GFS is up to 84 hours now. Probably end up developing the blob near Haiti.
Things are Heating UP
2068. Patrap
Crushing Shear abounds..

2058 Drak I was noticing something similar on water vapor imagery and 500 mb vort maps.
Quoting sfla82:


Won't happen!


what makes you think that? just for curiosity because everyone here knows what you just said is irresponsible
2071. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
I'm going to keep an open mind but i still say development is not likely.


I agree. I don't think we'll see much for 5 days at least. Things may get interesting after that.
2072. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
2058 Drak I was noticing something similar on water vapor imagery and 500 mb vort maps.


Yea the mid level circulation is great and all but there is still shear from the upper trough.
Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP
yea, i see 3 areas of intrest, one is east of south Florida, another is northeast of the Antilles, and last but not least the one south of Jamaica.
Quoting Patrap:
Crushing Shear abounds..



It'll all be reflected to the east, soon enough, Patrap...
2075. sfla82
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
GFS is up to 84 hours now. Probably end up developing the blob near Haiti.


It is the GFS though...So no worries there.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea the mid level circulation is great and all but there is still shear from the upper trough.


Agreed
2077. Patrap
Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP



too march wind shear
Quoting Patrap:
big storms approaching me here in Miami.
Quoting Tazmanian:



too march wind shear
that is true, just wait until the Jet stream slips through.
Taz Your being to sinnicle anything could happen keep in mind the season is unpredictible
2082. sfla82
Its opinion... Its an El Nino year and usually in an El Nino yr your might not even get 1 that hits land much less 6. So maybe your being irresponsible...LOL. I am just saying its a down yr and I will go out on a limb and say we won't see 6 storms hit land, unless it's the Azores.
2083. K8eCane
I keep trying to do some cleaning but every time i take a cigarette break (yes i have that nasty nasty habit) i have to come see what the latest is as if something is going to change in an hour....HELP...
comma shape seems to be forming east of south Florida, I believe the AOI east of S. Florida will combine with the system south of Jamaica.
2085. Levi32
Quoting Acemmett90:
Taz Your being to sinnicle anything could happen keep in mind the season is unpredictible


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.
2086. JRRP
Kingston, Jamaica....Mostly cloudy

Ok I'll bite.
14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Major.
Anyone calling this season a bust in early June should be ignored.
2089. sfla82
Quoting Acemmett90:
Things are Heating UP


Yeah it is supposed to get hot here in S. Fla today!!!
2090. Drakoen
Looks like the wave axis in the extreme eastern Caribbean may be a in adding vorticity to the area making it harder for the low to get organized. Two vort maximums at work.
Quoting sfla82:


Yeah it is supposed to get hot here in S. Fla today!!!

and we will get alot more thuderstorms
2092. Patrap
June Busters as common as June Bugs



They usually last only a few days or a week at best
Quoting Levi32:


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?
Quoting Weather456:
Kingston, Jamaica....Mostly cloudy


heavy clouds are rolling in from the south. And it just got dark
2095. sfla82
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ok I'll bite.
14 named storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Major.
Anyone calling this season a bust in early June should be ignored.


LOL!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all
Quoting Tazmanian:



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all


LOL

Hi Taz - always nice to read your posts
Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.
2099. JRRP
I will not change my forecast
12-7-4
Quoting Tazmanian:



WeatherStudent %100 of the time i dont no what you are taking about march most of the time you dont make senes at all


Yo Taz, what's up, bud? I just came to your rescue and this is how you repay me? Secondly, I was siding with what Levi32 had just said about you, not disagreeing with the man. :)
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.
2102. sfla82
Quoting JRRP:
I will not change my forecast
12-7-4


9-4-1
I was wrong. GFS develops our Caribbean disturbance.

Might be a repeat of the 0Z track...can't tell right now though.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I second that, Levi32! Stop teasing Taz, alright?



levi32 is not teasing me WeatherStudent so am not sure where you geting that from why not you stay out of thing dos not coner you and you go about your business and stay out of ares you get in too a lot of pole business you need to start looking at the commets more be for you start saying any thing
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.


I agree, WeatherMan. We shouldn't turn our backs on this little critter, at least not quite yet anyways.
Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


Yup..I heard about that on the Weather Channel. I think the Military complained about the ban when a tornado struck a base, saying they never want to be surprised again.
Quoting Tazmanian:



levi32 is not teasing me WeatherStudent so am not sure where you geting that from why not you stay out of thing dos not coner you and you go about your business and stay out of ares you get in too a lot of pole business you need to start looking at the commets more be for you start saying any thing


Have it you're way, Taz! You just lost a friend.
Well Well some of you guys are thinking you have power over mother nature. Just yesterday we had a different tune than today. Now let's suppose the area starts getting organize, many quotes willchange from:

Development does not seem likely next week to development chances seem to be increasing.

Showers have diminish, no sense monitoring the situation to showers are increasing, looks like an invest or tropical storm is on the way.

Wind shear is to high, the season is a dud to our 2nd named storm by July 7, that's almost the same as 2008.

Only a few on here seem to have a levelled headed view towards this, namely, hurricane23, IKE, StormW and W456.
Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


Did not know that! Wow!
And Levi32. He's one of the sane ones, lol
Quoting zoomiami:
After asking my question regarding the temps at 500 mb and the thunderstorms, I started researching. Found an article from 1992 that is a history of severe storm forecasting. Did anyone know that for almost 40 years the word "tornado" was banned from any forecast or warnings issued by the many different organizations that issued those products?

The feeling was that the trouble caused by the use of the word was worse than the storms themselves.


I sent a responce via email and and here on the blog.
Quoting Levi32:


And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone.



no Levi32 was takeing too Acemmett90


i said the wind shear is too high


then Levi32 said tooo Acemmett90



And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone


And why are we argueing becasue i was not trying to start something
12Z GFS is expecting this system to move SE at one time. This may be due to a quasi-fujiwhara effect, as a weak low forms east of it.
2108- We go through that every year. LOL

Weather has cycle's and so does the blog. Its a fact of life and there is no getting around it.
Thanks H23 - appreciate your time.

The other interesting tidbit was that a lot of the warning efforts changed leading up to the world wars, because of the munition factories. Seems that lightening strikes would set off explosions, injuring and killing the workers. So they set up spotters to get early warnings out so they could evacuate the plants before the severe storms.

Weatherstudent

I am glad you finally revealed yourself.

Great display of integrity. ;)
WE BETTER REMEMBER THE GFS NAILED IT DEVELOPING BERTHA LAST YEAR 2008 IN JULY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. JUST REMEMBER.
Quoting Tazmanian:



no Levi32 was takeing too Acemmett90


i said the wind shear is too high


then Levi32 said tooo Acemmett90



And he's also absolutely right so leave him alone





Ooh, OK, well then, I apologies to all three of y'all then. Case close.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
I was wrong. GFS develops our Caribbean disturbance.

Might be a repeat of the 0Z track...can't tell right now though.


weak low through south florida.Looks like moisture might be on the increase next week.
For anyone who would like to read more here is the link:

Link

The article is located in the AMS journals.
Quoting futuremet:
Weatherstudent

I am glad you finally revealed yourself.

Great display of integrity. ;)


Thanks man!
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just analyzing satellite imagery with our current Western Caribbean disturbance and it appears that a very well-defined circulation center has become much more evident. Based upon the satellite presentation, it would have you believe this is a surface circulation, but the observations don't back that up. I will be watching this throughout the day.


True, but I'm thinking it's not surface based yet since it's not being reflected at the surface by obs and QuikSCAT.

While, development is a possibility, that is not at the top of my agenda right now, it's the rain.
Afternoon all

So any thoughts on a potential system out of the Bahamas? Or is the GFS out to lunch again?
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Ooh, OK, well then, I apologies to all three of y'all then. Case close.



thats ok so may be for now on start looking at the commets a little more then things like this wont go on ???
Quoting futuremet:
12Z GFS rams Florida again



Luckily for us, as a very weak, but very weak 1009 mb low.
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats ok so may be for now on start looking at the commets a little more then things like this wont go on ???



Thank you, Taz.
WE BETTER REMEMBER THE GFS NAILED IT DEVELOPING BERTHA LAST YEAR 2008 IN JULY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. JUST REMEMBER.

When the GFS predicts over 50 storms a year, it is going to get one right every once in a while.
Heres A nice But worrying View of the atlantic
2131. Drakoen
Quoting hurricane23:


weak low through south florida.Looks like moisture might be on the increase next week.


Agreed. Excellent chances for rain from this disturbance.
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Luckily for us, as a very weak, but very weak 1009 mb low.
The low may be weak, but if it stalls. It will dump alot of rain.
2133. Levi32
Quoting StormJunkie:
Afternoon all

So any thoughts on a potential system out of the Bahamas? Or is the GFS out to lunch again?


I don't think the GFS is crazy for strengthening a low there but I doubt it would have enough time to organize into anything the NHC would name. It gets picked up by the westerlies fairly fast. Usually sub-tropical systems need a lot of time to organize.
Quoting Acemmett90:
Heres A nice But worrying View of the atlantic


What's worrying about it, lol.
It's about to pour here
Quoting Acemmett90:
Heres A nice But worrying View of the atlantic




wind shear is too high you are jumping the gune on things here
I do not think this will be subtropical Levi.
Quoting Tazmanian:




wind shear is too high you are jumping the gune on things here

Lets not argue BUt like I said ITs to unpredictible to say it can't happen
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Photobucket


Current obs, show a mid-level support a mid-level feature

12 UTC 7 June 2009

2141. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:
I do not think this will be subtropical Levi.


Well it sure isn't going to be tropical and it won't be fully cold-core either.
Quoting Tazmanian:




wind shear is too high you are jumping the gune on things here


Sure is Taz- Link

80 knots around 40W.
2143. Patrap
I guess we will see these next on some Post.

is it me or does the 12Z GFS have a weak low stalling off the florida east coast for a couple of days
NOGAPS is establishing consensus with the GFS. If the 12Z ECMWF remains as consistent as it has been over the past days, then this should establish adequate consensus to determine that something will develop.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Photobucket



Nothing gets passed you my young, future meteorologist in the makings. You've made an astoundingly extraordinary find this morning, one of which, no one else, aside from yourself that is, has yet to discover it. This recent discovery speaks absolute mad sheer volumes and madness as to why the GFS wants to develop what it presently and obviously enough wants to develop. I rest my case, yet again, props and kudos, WeatherMan.
2147. Levi32
Quoting Twinkster:
is it me or does the 12Z GFS have a weak low stalling off the florida east coast for a couple of days


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.
Quoting futuremet:
NOGAPS is establishing consensus with the GFS. If the 12Z ECMWF remains as consistent as it has been over the past days, then this should be establish adequate consensus to determine that something will develop.


So the NOGAPS jumps on board.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Sure is Taz- Link

80 knots around 40W.



and that wont be going down any time soon
Quoting Levi32:


Well it sure isn't going to be tropical and it won't be fully cold-core either.


This system is developing in a relatively barotropically warmed environment.
2152. Patrap
I just Lub sexy Met talk in da morning...
Quoting futuremet:
NOGAPS is establishing consensus with the GFS. If the 12Z ECMWF remains as consistent as it has been over the past days, then this should be establish adequate consensus to determine that something will develop.


Exactly, so everything finally begins to fall into its corresponding places. Ooh, come out, come out, come out from where ever your hidding in deathcasters. :)
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.


between 150-204 in the GFS long range run it has our carribean system stalling off the coast of florda
out of curiosity what do you think the chances are of the low in the Caribbean becoming Ana,
I'll go out on a limb and say 50%
2156. Patrap

Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
Developed by the
Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA

Quoting WeatherStudent:


Exactly, so everything finally begins to fall into its corresponding places. Ooh, come out, come out, come out from where ever your hidding in deathcasters. :)


Wind shear is still high- Link

:P
Quoting all4hurricanes:
out of curiosity what do you think the chances are of the low in the Caribbean becoming Ana,
I'll go out on a limb and say 50%


I'll say 70%.
This basically means that the ECMWF may have been right all along.
2160. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


This system is developing in a relatively barotropically warmed environment.


That's why you can't call it tropical, but it is under a cut-off upper low and if allowed to sit over those waters it would become sub-tropical. I'm not saying it will develop just that it wouldn't be a fully cold-core system. If you want a computer to agree then here it is.
I know, that's why I said slow, gradual developmental development.
2162. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
I just Lub sexy Met talk in da morning...


for some reason the word baroclinical sounds
....erotic?...i guess i am just too hooked on the weather
2163. Patrap
con·sen·sus (kn-snss)
n.
1. An opinion or position reached by a group as a whole: "Among political women . . . there is a clear consensus about the problems women candidates have traditionally faced" Wendy Kaminer. See Usage Note at redundancy.
2. General agreement or accord: government by consensus.
2164. K8eCane
actually...i meant baroTROPICALLY
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah it's the silly "land-phoon" that SJ keeps tracking on the US southeast coast lol. I want it to disappear so he can stop!

It may reinvigorate a bit over water when it drifts southeast but it gets picked up by the westerlies pretty fast so I doubt it will have the time to organize into anything significant.


I don't think SJ was referring to his "land-phoon" but a system developing in 24hrs near Andros Island, initially taking aim at him. Weak system, but who knows.
Quoting Levi32:


That's why you can't call it tropical, but it is under a cut-off upper low and if allowed to sit over those waters it would become sub-tropical. I'm not saying it will develop just that it wouldn't be a fully cold-core system. If you want a computer to agree than here it is.


LOL that is a different low


I was talking about the system in the Caribbean. Sorry for the confusion
Quoting futuremet:
This basically means that the ECMWF may have been right all along.



Yes, this model is almost ALWAYS RIGHT when it comes to it's predictions all because of it's conservative discreetness which it has everytime it forecast TC's to form.
2168. K8eCane
....and now i will be quiet and get back to cleaning. Sorry everybody if that comment was inappropriate
Patrap

Women are models too you know. There is nothing wrong with saying model consensus lol.
2170. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


LOL that is a different low


I was talking about the system in the Caribbean. Sorry for the confusion


LOL sounds like we both misunderstood each other. SJ and I were talking about the Florida low. Sorry about that.
Wind shear is still high but it was 80 knots over Jamaica last Thursday, 40 knots today, what will be the value on Wednesday?

Trends is the key to monitoring.
2172. Patrap
pssssssssstt.new Entry posted by Dr. Masters.

Ya'lls powers of Observation are slipping,LOL
2173. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I don't think SJ was referring to his "land-phoon" but a system developing in 24hrs near Andros Island, initially taking aim at him. Weak system, but who knows.


I am sure that SJ of all people noticed that the GFS forms it from the weak low still over the SE US coast that used to be his land-phoon lol.

Believe me he will never let me off the hook with this one...
Anyone else?
So far we actually might get an Ana out of this
earlier i thought that the caribbean system was a noshow now things have turned around so quickly how is it going to go to florida going nnw