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El Niño Odds Raised to 70% by NOAA, But El Niño is Actually Imminent

By: Michael Ventrice 2:36 PM GMT on June 07, 2014

Today's guest blog post is by Dr. Michael Ventrice, an operational scientist for the Energy team at Weather Services International (WSI). This is a follow-up post to the ones he did on February 21 and April 4 on the progress of El Niño. Today's post is quite technical! - Jeff Masters

The June 5, 2014 El Niño update from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center gives a 70% chance that El Niño will form this summer, and an 80% by fall, but El Niño odds are higher than this. A strong Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event is forecast to develop over the central-eastern Pacific later this month in through early July (the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days.) This MJO location favors for another period of westerly wind bursts over the Central Pacific, an atmospheric signature that is likely to be the final kick needed for a blossoming El Niño event.

As I blogged about on February 21, there has been a noticeable warming in the eastern Pacific over the past few months in response to one of the most impressive downwelling oceanic Kelvin waves observed since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. Recall that we observed a series of strong westerly wind bursts over the western-central Pacific Ocean this past winter. These westerly wind bursts can be tied to the state of the MJO as well as other equatorial waves and tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. A time-longitude plot of the departure from average of the depth of the 20°C isotherm shows the impressive nature of this downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave at the end of May, which had finally completed its trip all the way to the eastern Pacific Ocean. The series of these waves like has been observed in 2013 - 2014 is very typical of what one sees before the onset of an El Niño event. Note that since the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave has emerged at the surface in recent weeks, we have seen a rise in the standard ENSO 3.4 index to anomalies approaching +0.5°C, which is the threshold for classification of El Niño conditions. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.


Figure 2. In our history, we have observed strong oceanic Kelvin waves to be driven by westerly wind bursts, which are often timed with the state of the MJO. Note in this time-longitude plot made during the onset of the 1997 super-El Niño, the shading is anomalous outgoing long wave radiation (OLR; thunderstorms are represented by blue shading), the convectively active phase of the MJO (coincides with low-level westerly winds) are represented by solid-red contours, and downwelling Oceanic Kelvin waves are indicated by the blue-solid contours. It is evident that consecutive MJO events play a critical role in facilitating a basin wide transition to El Niño. Note here time is going up!! Figure courtesy of Dr. Paul Roundy, SUNY Albany.



Figure 3. Departure of ocean temperature from average along the Equator in the Pacific Ocean on May 28, 2014 (top), shows an area of 5°C (8°F) ocean temperature anomalies at a depth of 50 - 150 meters, the signature of an oceanic Kelvin wave. In addition, warmer than average sea-surface temperatures extend along the Equator from South America all the way to the Date Line. This is a classic “Full-basin” El Niño expression. A time lapse is available here. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

There is potential for a big MJO event this month
Over the past month, the MJO signature was relatively weak. During the latter half of May, we observed a period of enhanced trade flow (easterlies) over the eastern half of the Pacific Basin, which can often counter, or “stall” the El Niño for a period of time due to favoring a period of upwelling in the eastern part of the Basin. But while the atmosphere favored a weakening of the El Niño expression, the ocean did not a skip a beat. Warm ocean currents continue to rip towards the east, advecting warm waters from the western half of the basin to the east. The Pacific Warm Pool, which was well established in the western half of the basin for the past couple of years, has now shifted past the Date Line. You can watch the remarkable evolution of the eastward shifting Warm Pool on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)’s link here.

Since the ocean remains in a state that is evolving towards El Niño, all we need is the atmosphere to behave…and it does appear that the atmosphere soon will! For the past five to six European weekly forecasts, the model has been becoming more and more aggressive with a developing MJO signature to push across the central-eastern Pacific later in June through early July. In response, we should expect another period of westerly wind bursts over the western-central part of the Basin. And what do you know, the model is keying on a period of anomalous lower-tropospheric flow that very well may be the final kick needed to facilitate a moderate-to-strong El Niño expression later this Fall. Forecast models continue to show the peak of the El Niño will occur later this Fall, with a magnitude near +1.5°C above average, as defined by the ENSO 3.4 Index. Now this is not a “Super El Niño” by any means, but it is very strong and there is still uncertainty regarding how strong it will get.


Figure 4. Weekly European model forecast of the MJO made over the past month have increasingly shown a strong MJO episode developing in late June and early July.

Regardless of what amplitude the ENSO 3.4 Index achieves, it only matters of the atmosphere responds. There are number of ways to identify the expression of El Niño in atmospheric data fields. One popular way is to look is to look at the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the difference in surface pressure between Darwin, Australia and the island of Tahiti. The SOI tends to drop to very low values during the presence of an El Niño atmosphere. This can be illustrated in the time-series below, where 1997 and 1982 marked the lowest points in the index over the past 35 years.


Figure 5. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1982 - 2014 shows the two strongest El Niño events of the past 35 years, in 1982 and 1997, had strongly negative SOIs.


Figure 6. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past two years shows a downward trend in recent months, but has yet to cross into the sustained negative territory that will indicate the atmosphere has responded to warming SSTs in the equatorial Pacific.

My thoughts on this summer: Since the atmosphere has NOT yet locked into an “El Niño state”, we might expect the typical cooler-than-average summer conditions that the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. typically experiences during an El Niño event to be delayed. This means we can expect periods of hot weather across the major natural gas and power markets this summer. We do not believe these heat waves will be prolonged in nature, and it is difficult to pin-point the timing and magnitude of such events. But we can expect them to continue until the atmosphere “feels” the El Niño developing beneath in the ocean. With a possible strong MJO event on the horizon, it does suggest however that the atmosphere could lock into an El Niño state sometime between July and August.

Michael Ventrice

Dr. Michael Ventrice is an operational scientist for the Energy team at Weather Services International (WSI), who provide market-moving weather forecasts and cutting-edge meteorological analysis to hundreds of energy-trading clients worldwide. Follow the WSI Energy Team on Twitter at @WSI_Energy and @WSI_EuroEnergy.

Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Has there been any talk about updating that Cayman Radar so it doesn't look like something from a third world country?
Storms are approaching the DC/Baltimore area.
Quoting 492. hydrus:

(snip)


Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20002
Well Done, 20K.... under 7 years..
Quoting 477. SFLWeatherman:

276HR


If anything, this means we are in a pattern favorable for an early season Gulf storm.
Quoting 501. CosmicEvents:

Has there been any talk about updating that Cayman Radar so it doesn't look like something from a third world country?


I wish they would also speed up the loop a little so it wasn't so jumpy.
Is it just me or does it seem like every day there is a watch (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado) in Eastern Colorado?
12Z GFS............................................... .................................................. ..........
Quoting 504. opal92nwf:


If anything, this means we are in a pattern favorable for an early season Gulf storm.
Opal..keep your eye on the gfs in a week or so...
Quoting 506. Doppler22:

Is it just me or does it seem like every day there is a watch (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado) in Eastern Colorado?
No it's not just you.It's like Florida and the hurricanes in 2004.
Quoting 509. washingtonian115:

No it's not just you.It's like Florida and the hurricanes in 2004.


Three hurricanes in one year for my area, one of which truly brought hurricane conditions to my area (very likely the only instance from 1900-2004). I will probably never see another storm of that strength here in my lifetime (I'm in my late 20s). 2004 was a rarity.

As far as the potential Gulf system, I will believe it once the time frame is under a week. For now, it just keeps on getting pushed back.
Quoting 510. HurrMichaelOrl:



Three hurricanes in one year for my area, one of which truly brought hurricane conditions to my area (very likely the only instance from 1900-2004). I will probably never see another storm of that strength here in my lifetime (I'm in my late 20s). 2004 was a rarity.

As far as the potential Gulf system, I will believe it once the time frame is under a week. For now, it just keeps on getting pushed back.
2004,and 2005 were rare hurricane seasons and they happened back to back.Must have been a real headache.As far as the Gulf storm the GFS is up to it's old tricks.It did that with Alex,Arlene,(didn't see Alberto) and Andrea.It showed the systems forming at the end of May only for them to form a week to 3 weeks after the fact.
I've been wondering if the variability of the GFS is due to the small differences in inputs at the different times. Does anyone know if the inputs to the model are automatically generated based on current conditions recorded from soundings etc.? It would seem that a logical system would be to take the computer files from soundings, weather stations, etc, and use that as input to the 4x-a-day model runs. If that is the case, the diurnal variation of temps, atmospheric moisture, winds, etc. would lead to outputs varying as we see them. Keep in mind Lorenz's butterfly effect.
Good Afternoon. NHC has gone up to a 50% in the short-term with the pending e-pac disturbance:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUN 8 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad low pressure area located a couple hundred miles southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the next few days while the low moves
generally northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

It is being sheered at the moment so the longer term prospect over the 5 day period seems the most viable option.   It actually looked better this time yesterday than it does at the moment convection wise:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
Quoting Doppler22:
Is it just me or does it seem like every day there is a watch (Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado) in Eastern Colorado?


Lately, yes.
Colorado, Eastern New Mexico, and West Texas should really get going again this afternoon.
Quoting 503. PedleyCA:



Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20002
Well Done, 20K.... under 7 years..
Thank you Ped..Learned a lot from the blog and the folks on it. .What a privilege its been..:)
Quoting 460. Gearsts:

omg so dry here.



Hopefully the nightmare will end someday...
Map for this evening. Eastern Colorado forms a huge complex that marches into Kansas.
Other strong to severe storms down into Eastern New Mexico and Texas.
Almost left out the heavy rain/T storms that will be moving across Arkansas.

Quoting 501. CosmicEvents:

Has there been any talk about updating that Cayman Radar so it doesn't look like something from a third world country?

Dude we just got the radar and it took us a long time and a lot of money to be able to get it we are not going to do any major upgrades at this time
We have however did do some minor-moderate upgrades to it

Please guys remember Cayman is 3 island not a big Country like the US and we do not own a lot of money infact very little
So we at the moment can not get grand great radars like the US
I really like these images that pick up on the outflow boundaries.
Quoting 505. Saltydogbwi1:



I wish they would also speed up the loop a little so it wasn't so jumpy.

You comment has been noted and I will pass it on when I head into the office this week
Quoting 520. wunderkidcayman:


Dude we just got the radar and it took us a long time and a lot of money to be able to get it we are not going to do any major upgrades at this time
We have however did do some minor-moderate upgrades to it

Please guys remember Cayman is a island not a big Country like the US and we do not own a lot of money infact very little
So we at the moment can not get grand great radars like the US
They are very expensive . In the early 90,s, I went to Ruskin,FL to see the new weather office. They actually bought a used Doppler radar. It was in the millions.


Personally I don't think the Cayman radar looks like it's from a third world Country , I think that pushing it a little too far and bordering on an insult! We just finished it last year and I think it is constantly being fined tuned as far as I know.
Extreme South Florida is exploding with T storms. They should spread over to the S.W. coast and then build up towards Tampa.



Other storms are just starting to fire off across Central Fl.



Panhandle and Southern Alabama are just starting to fire off storms too.



Quoting 457. wxmod:

Ships, ships, ships everywhere, polluting the heck out of the Pacific. Just think of each of those ships carrying around a coal fired power plant with no smog control.




This has nothing to do with ships polluting. Spend a minute of your time and look up Geoengineering. I thought you would know better given your screen name.
Quoting 492. hydrus:





Am starting to think something is wrong with the GFS, I don't think I've ever seen it continue to portray a system continually stuck in the long term.

In general, it has been portraying insane bullseyes of precip across parts of the U.S. and form some reason the HPC has bought into this and way overdid precip across Oklahoma.

A couple days back the GFS had nearly the whole state of Missouri getting 8-12 inches of rain, it backed off that as well which didn't happen.

These things tell me the GFS is having some issues right now.
Quoting 523. hydrus:

They are very expensive . In the early 90,s, I went to Ruskin,FL to see the new weather office. They actually bought a used Doppler radar. It was in the millions.

The EU and CIGOV came to an agreement for EU to give us our radar and the station building for EUR4.16 million (about CI$4.6 million)
Radar comes from a German Company "SELEX Systems Integration" and the tech assistant from german company "ICON-INSTITUTE"
Quoting 525. Sfloridacat5:

Extreme South Florida is exploding with T storms. They should spread over to the S.W. coast and then build up towards Tampa.



Other storms are just starting to fire off across Central Fl.



Panhandle and Southern Alabama are just starting to fire off storms too.






North to south flow will mostly likely keep thunderstorms well away from Tampa as it allows the sea breeze to advance inland, stabilizing the area.

Thia flow direction often maximizes heavy precip over far south Florida due to an often triple point sea breeze collision however.
Quoting 524. stormpetrol:



Personally I don't think the Cayman radar looks like it's from a third world Country , I think that pushing it a little too far and bordering on an insult! We just finished it last year and I think it is constantly being fined tuned as far as I know.

True
And yes it's being fined tuned constantly

Quoting 520. wunderkidcayman:


Dude we just got the radar and it took us a long time and a lot of money to be able to get it we are not going to do any major upgrades at this time
We have however did do some minor-moderate upgrades to it

Please guys remember Cayman is 3 island not a big Country like the US and we do not own a lot of money infact very little
So we at the moment can not get grand great radars like the US

USA is working on 21st century radar. Actually, I think they can install them now but it's so expensive it'll take until 2030 to get enough money to install them.
Quoting 501. CosmicEvents:

Has there been any talk about updating that Cayman Radar so it doesn't look like something from a third world country?



I know it might not be the best but it is a lot better than what we had before which was none.
Quoting 524. stormpetrol:



Personally I don't think the Cayman radar looks like it's from a third world Country , I think that pushing it a little too far and bordering on an insult! We just finished it last year and I think it is constantly being fined tuned as far as I know.
Quoting 532. stormwatcherCI:




I know it might not be the best but it is a lot better than what we had before which was none.

Hey guys you notice something new with the radar
More so when we got those strong thunderstorms those reds on the radar
And the odd square and circle shapes with lines going through them
New warning areas
Quoting 533. wunderkidcayman:


Hey guys you notice something new with the radar
More so when we got those strong thunderstorms those reds on the radar
And the odd square and circle shapes with lines going through them
New warning areas


I haven't noticed it.
Quoting 534. stormwatcherCI:



I haven't noticed it.

Today this morning it was in use
When we had one nice on E of GT just offshore
Quoting 530. wunderkidcayman:


True
And yes it's being fined tuned constantly




Actually when we were getting it I read it was top of line, though I admit I don't know anything about them. I think the radar itself is among the top, but it is the fine tuning that takes time and skill and I personally noticed it doesn't hype the weather, the colors actually reflects the true intensity of the rain, for example this morning when the heavy rain was crossing right where I live was the first time I seen a netted box circle moving with heaviest convection, kinda cool, i think!
Quoting 527. Jedkins01:




Am starting to think something is wrong with the GFS, I don't think I've ever seen it continue to portray a system continually stuck in the long term.

In general, it has been portraying insane bullseyes of precip across parts of the U.S. and form some reason the HPC has bought into this and way overdid precip across Oklahoma.

A couple days back the GFS had nearly the whole state of Missouri getting 8-12 inches of rain, it packed off that as well which didn't happen.

These things tell me the GFS is having some issues right now.
Hello Jed..I have not had the time to really look at whats going on. My gut tells me that something will come of this, and there may be another afterward. The MJO returning and those warm West Caribbean temps have my attention. So much if fact that I believe we may have a rather large, but sheared system.
Lol
Small medium and large Trop wave
Quoting 538. wunderkidcayman:

Lol
Small medium and large Trop wave

As we shift in July them tropical waves will have even a higher chance for development.
Doesn't say much when the CMC doesn't even show your cyclone developing, so I'm willing to bet the GFS's cyclone is nonsense.
Wow, 7 tornado warnings in a line in Colorado
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys you notice something new with the radar
More so when we got those strong thunderstorms those reds on the radar
And the odd square and circle shapes with lines going through them
New warning areas

Well congratulations on your radar.
We got one, and it's been ''not working'' for more time than ''working''.
It's been down again now for about a month.
But then again, we don't do maintenance very well down here….

A real shame and scandal.
544. wxmod
NW Pacific yesterday.

Quoting 543. pottery:


Well congratulations on your radar.
We got one, and it's been ''not working'' for more time than ''working''.
It's been down again now for about a month.
But then again, we don't do maintenance very well down here….

A real shame and scandal.

Where does your radar come from?
Quoting Doppler22:
Wow, 7 tornado warnings in a line in Colorado


Where are all the chasers?
Most likely down in Texas waiting for later today.
Quoting 366. yonzabam:

On the Wunderground front page, there's a story about a football stadium sized asteroid, scientists have nicknamed 'The Beast', that is due to fly past the Earth today.

Despite the fact that there is no immediate risk to Earth, the asteroid's massive size -- about 1,100 feet across -- is enough to worry astronomers.

"HQ124 is at least 10 times bigger, and possibly 20 times, than the asteroid that injured a thousand people last year in Chelyabinsk, Siberia," Bob Berman of the online Slooh community observatory said in a statement. The meteor that blasted glass out of windows and rattled entire cities was only about 55-feet wide.

Now, assuming that the formula for the volume of a sphere can be used to guage its size approximately, its volume would be 4/3 x 3.14 x 550 x 550 x 550 cu ft. That's 696,539,220 cu ft. By contrast, the Chelyabinsk asteroid's volume would be 4/3 x 3.14 x 27.5 x 27.5 x 27.5 cu ft. That's 2,394,354 cu ft, making 'The Beast' almost 300 times bigger, and not 10-20 times bigger, as stated.

Anyway, as it's going to miss us, it's all academic.


Your second volume calculation has an error. Taking the width of one to be 20 times that of the other, and assuming that both are spherical, the volume ratio would be 20^3 = 8000.
Quoting 542. Doppler22:

Wow, 7 tornado warnings in a line in Colorado


I've just spent the last 45 minutes watching a documentary on Youtube about the Joplin tornado. The destruction was unbelievable. Worse than a war zone. Don't think I could live in tornado alley.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 52 seg

Tornado Warning for Adams County in CO until 2:00pm MDT.

Quoting 507. LargoFl:

12Z GFS............................................... .................................................. ..........
thats hitting mobile head on. I know too early to tell what or if its gonna happen. But wow what happened to a quiet year lol
Quoting 547. DCSwithunderscores:



Your second volume calculation has an error. Taking the width of one to be 20 times that of the other, and assuming that both are spherical, the volume ratio would be 20^3 = 8000.


I don't get that. Anyone else want to do the maths?
Day 10 12Z GFS ensembles

Quoting 524. stormpetrol:



Personally I don't think the Cayman radar looks like it's from a third world Country , I think that pushing it a little too far and bordering on an insult! We just finished it last year and I think it is constantly being fined tuned as far as I know.

Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.
554. wxmod
Quoting 526. CypressJim08:



This has nothing to do with ships polluting. Spend a minute of your time and look up Geoengineering. I thought you would know better given your screen name.


Of course I know what geoengineering is. If you want to call those thousand mile man made clouds covering an area the size of the country of Australia geoengineering, that's fine with me. But paid bloggers with multiple addresses will call you a conspiracy theorist to keep the masses from looking at it seriously.
Quoting 551. yonzabam:



I don't get that. Anyone else want to do the maths?


(4/3) X Pi X 27.5 X 27.5 X 27.5 = about 87114

EDIT: PS The volume that you calculated would correspond to a radius of about 83 ft.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Where does your radar come from?

It was installed 2 years ago, and if I know anything about the way things work here, it would have been a ''cheap'' one but it would have cost an absolute fortune. The difference having been put into someones account….

I have no idea where it came from. Maybe China ?
Quoting 550. mrsalagranny:

thats hitting mobile head on. I know too early to tell what or if its gonna happen. But wow what happened to a quiet year lol
when they say quiet season, they are probably talking about atlantic storms,but gulf of mexico storms can always pop up and we along the gulf coast always will stay alert huh...
Quoting 554. wxmod:



Of course I know what geoengineering is. If you want to call those thousand mile man made clouds covering an area the size of the country of Australia geoengineering, that's fine with me. But paid bloggers with multiple addresses will call you a conspiracy theorist to keep the masses from looking at it seriously.


Is Jim your sock puppet, or another weather modification conspiracy nut? I get the feeling the pair of you are going to have multiple conversations on here.
Quoting 520. wunderkidcayman:


Dude we just got the radar and it took us a long time and a lot of money to be able to get it we are not going to do any major upgrades at this time
We have however did do some minor-moderate upgrades to it

Please guys remember Cayman is 3 island not a big Country like the US and we do not own a lot of money infact very little
So we at the moment can not get grand great radars like the US
I was about to say.... but u said it... plus their jumpy 3rd-world-looking radar is better than what we [Bahamas / TCI] have right now, which is zero, zip and nada. I'm just glad there's something we can use to observe that area of the WCar at all....
Quoting 523. hydrus:

They are very expensive . In the early 90,s, I went to Ruskin,FL to see the new weather office. They actually bought a used Doppler radar. It was in the millions.
It's not just the radar itself. We have Doppler here in Nassau, but you will note the online imagery that used to be available at our met office website is no longer posted. In lean times keeping that imagery available can be an added cost that is hard to absorb just so a few enthusiasts can observe....
562. wxmod
Quoting 559. yonzabam:



Is Jim your sock puppet, or another weather modification conspiracy nut? I get the feeling the pair of you are going to have multiple conversations on here.


Thanks for proving my point.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 1 min

Tornado Warning for Arapahoe and Elbert County in CO until 2:15pm MDT.

Quoting 553. CosmicEvents:


Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.



There are several homes here valued at over $5 million but not owned by locals. Our government has been hit very hard the past several years and we are lucky to have any radar at all. I think it is not so much the radar itself but perhaps people to set it or whatever needs to be done.
Quoting 550. mrsalagranny:

thats hitting mobile head on. I know too early to tell what or if its gonna happen. But wow what happened to a quiet year lol
You know what they say, granny, only takes one.... and several of the analogue years had one doozy of a landfalling system in an otherwise quiet season...
Quoting 553. CosmicEvents:


Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.


I don't think there is anything wrong with the quality of the Radar. What we see online probably isn't close to the resolution the radar is capable of or near the amount of data the met's in the weather service see/can utilize. It is just uploaded at a lower resolution as the general public does not need to see anything more. As I mentioned before on this blog (and have done in the past almost a year ago) the only thing than I personally think needs tweaking is that the frame rate needs speeding up just a tad.

Multiple tornado warning across Colorado.
Storms now firing down in New Mexico.
Stormscapelive is heading to the southern storm near Las Vegas New Mexico.


SevereStudios @severestudios · 50 seg

Tornado Warning for Weld County in CO until 2:30pm MDT.

Quoting 553. CosmicEvents:


Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.

I would say less than 10 homes in Cayman valued at 5+ Mil most of those home are vacation home belonging to foreign billionaires
They are a few homes that belong to locals mine is just a shade over 5mil

Most private homes overall are less than 50,000 some less than 10,000

Caymans radar was not gonna be a thing Cayman Gov didn't have the money but the Carib Met Org and the US NOAA says we needed it to complete the Caribbean radar coverage and it would help with hurricane forecasting as well as benefit Cayman with severe weather and tornado forecasting (although tornados are not common but known to happen) etc...

Anyway we could see major upgrade in 5 or so years

Quoting 557. pottery:


It was installed 2 years ago, and if I know anything about the way things work here, it would have been a ''cheap'' one but it would have cost an absolute fortune. The difference having been put into someones account….

I have no idea where it came from. Maybe China ?

Lol that might explain its from china
Quoting 553. CosmicEvents:


Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.
5 mil is nevertheless a big enough chunk out of a relatively small economy. I dare say the Caymans are not running a multi-trilliion dollar budget like the US. I don't think the visual presentation is all that horrible, either, so I guess it's your taste.

In any case, I agree with others who appreciate having it and who are glad the Caymanian government took steps to ensure it is in place but also available for our use in the blog....
Updated
Quoting 553. CosmicEvents:


Don't take it personally SP, or any other Cayman blogger. the Caymans are a nice place...hardly a third-world country. But that radar has to be a dissapointment..it stinks, it looks third world....the best one can say is it's "better than nothing".
.
Money's tight all over including the US. And our government does some things right and some things wrong.
.
I was looking for any word about what happened to make it look so poor after all that money was spent and if there were any plans to upgrade. It's in country scale not even all that much money involved. I'm sure that there are private homes in the Caymans valued at over 5 million, just for 1 home.

No Cosmic, not at all, but I like it;) and in the last year it has been better fined tuned, hopefully it will get better. It was a House about a mile up the road from that was on sale about year ago for only $58 million, but I think the owners decided not to sell it again. Trust all is well with you, looking forward to your witty comments as usual this season.
Quoting 446. washingtonian115:

I'm still waiting for Dorian to hit Texas as a borderline cat 3/4 hurricane as GFS had showed....
LOL XD you will need to wait for four years counting this one if you want to see Dorian again.
Quoting 560. BahaHurican:

I was about to say.... but u said it... plus their jumpy 3rd-world-looking radar is better than what we [Bahamas / TCI] have right now, which is zero, zip and nada. I'm just glad there's something we can use to observe that area of the WCar at all....

That was the point of getting it full Carib coverage


Quoting 564. stormwatcherCI:




There are several homes here valued at over $5 million but not owned by locals. Our government has been hit very hard the past several years and we are lucky to have any radar at all. I think it is not so much the radar itself but perhaps people to set it or whatever needs to be done.

Yep
Though the tech guy is from Germany and the radar comes from same place
German engineering

Quoting 566. Saltydogbwi1:



I don't think there is anything wrong with the quality of the Radar. What we see online probably isn't close to the resolution the radar is capable of or near the amount of data the met's in the weather service see/can utilize. It is just uploaded at a lower resolution as the general public does not need to see anything more. As I mentioned before on this blog (and have done in the past almost a year ago) the only thing than I personally think needs tweaking is that the frame rate needs speeding up just a tad.



Yes that's another thing
I using from my IPad though the res looks better and time frame is decent speed maybe a few milliseconds slow not like when on PC where it's about nearly a second slow


It has a nice range, all the way to Cuba, western Jamaica and tip of Honduras/Nicaragua. It would be nice to see how it shows a tropical storm/hurricane.
Quoting 511. washingtonian115:

2004,and 2005 were rare hurricane seasons and they happened back to back.Must have been a real headache.As far as the Gulf storm the GFS is up to it's old tricks.It did that with Alex,Arlene,(didn't see Alberto) and Andrea.It showed the systems forming at the end of May only for them to form a week to 3 weeks after the fact.
2004 and 2005 were bad years for the gulf and Florida and 2011 and 2012 were bad years for the NE with Irene and Sandy and they were also back to back years.
Quoting 562. wxmod:



Thanks for proving my point.
So.... mod.... when did u add the mini-me? I haven't noticed anything new about you lately.....
:o)
If you guys want a radar for the Southern Caribbean Islands, check the Barbados radar.
Seems to always be working just fine.

''brohavwx'' is a good site out of B'dos, with links to relevant stuff in this area.

SevereStudios @severestudios · 58 seg

Tornado Warning for El Paso and Pueblo County in CO until 2:45pm MDT.

Quoting 570. BahaHurican:

5 mil is nevertheless a big enough chunk out of a relatively small economy. I dare say the Caymans are not running a multi-trilliion dollar budget like the US. I don't think the visual presentation is all that horrible, either, so I guess it's your taste.

In any case, I agree with others who appreciate having it and who are glad the Caymanian government took steps to ensure it is in place but also available for our use in the blog....


Our budget is small scale but yet lots and lot of money UK has to approve the budget because well the money comes from the UK however it keep on getting rejected and rejected time after time again a few gets approved but that's after some serous renegotiations and changes to the budget

I'm glad we got a radar
So we would not have to use the Cuban radar anymore which don't work that often BTW

Quoting 570. BahaHurican:

5 mil is nevertheless a big enough chunk out of a relatively small economy. I dare say the Caymans are not running a multi-trilliion dollar budget like the US. I don't think the visual presentation is all that horrible, either, so I guess it's your taste.

In any case, I agree with others who appreciate having it and who are glad the Caymanian government took steps to ensure it is in place but also available for our use in the blog....




I almost think the caymans are first world?
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:17 PM PDT on June 08, 2014
Clear
83.2 °F
Clear
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 60 °F
Wind: 13.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 29.77 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 83 °F

Forecast 92(WU) and 91 (NWS)
Currently 81.4F
Quoting 575. stormpetrol:



It has a nice range, all the way to Cuba, western Jamaica and tip of Honduras/Nicaragua. It would be nice to see how it shows a tropical storm/hurricane.

Agreed

Quoting 578. pottery:

If you guys want a radar for the Southern Caribbean Islands, check the Barbados radar.
Seems to always be working just fine.

''brohavwx'' is a good site out of B'dos, with links to relevant stuff in this area.


Yeah like Barbados radar

On the Caribbean coverage issue:
Belize has something; Caymans and JA just added or upgraded; in fact, in the WCar now the only hole in the 10N - 30N / 70W - 90W box is over The Bahamas / TCI.... at least online. Boy we sure look shabby in that context....

I think I need to talk to my met office working neighbour again.... maybe I can "shame" them into putting the radar back online.... lol
Quoting 547. DCSwithunderscores:



Your second volume calculation has an error. Taking the width of one to be 20 times that of the other, and assuming that both are spherical, the volume ratio would be 20^3 = 8000.

Agreed. For two spheres the ratio of the volumes is equal to the cube of the ratio of the diameters. Therefore, the Beast would have 8000 times the volume of the asteroid that hit Chelyabinsk, Siberia if the ratio of the diameters is 20, but only 1000 times the volume if the ratio is only 10. And, assuming they're made of similar materials, then the mass ratio is the same as the volume ratio, since mass scales with volume.

Not sure how energy released in a collision scales with mass, but it's likely to be proportional. That's why a collision by the Beast would be measured MEGAtons, rather than KILOtons. Again, approximately a ratio of 1000-10000.
THU-SAT (MODIFIED PREV)...12Z GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP LAYER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. GIVEN THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON
MAKING SOMETHING OUT OF (ALMOST) NOTHING IN THAT AREA FOR THE BETTER
PART LAST TWO WEEKS...NOT BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO. THE ECMWF DOES
INDICATES HEALTHY MOISTURE LEVELS AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING TWD THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEKEND...ESPEC THU
AND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE 40 PCT RANGE FOR NOW FOR LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THE INTERIOR.

I guess the NWS in Melbourne is not buying the GFS solution.
587. DDR
Trinidad the land of corruptiona and political games,potttery you are so right on that one,radar up since 2010 but has only been working for about 6 or 7 months total.
Quoting DDR:
Trinidad the land of corruptiona and political games,potttery you are so right on that one,radar up since 2010 but has only been working for about 6 or 7 months total.

Sad but True.

Lovely afternoon down here, but a little hazy.
Looks like some more rains coming Tuesday or so.
589. wxmod
Quoting 577. BahaHurican:

So.... mod.... when did u add the mini-me? I haven't noticed anything new about you lately.....
:o)


I haven't noticed anything about you either. But I did notice thousands of miles of fifty mile wide pollution trails coming out of ships in the Pacific. It's interesting to me that you are somehow offended by satellite images. Maybe you should get into another hobby. Most people think satellite imagery and data are pretty cool.
img src="">

Pic taken from 7 mile beach Grand Cayman this morning. Photographer unknown this pic was posted on Neptune Divers FB page.
Quoting 576. allancalderini:

2004 and 2005 were bad years for the gulf and Florida and 2011 and 2012 were bad years for the NE with Irene and Sandy and they were also back to back years.
It seems like bad hurricane seasons have been coming in pairs starting with 95 and 96.
Quoting 580. wunderkidcayman:



Our budget is small scale but yet lots and lot of money UK has to approve the budget because well the money comes from the UK however it keep on getting rejected and rejected time after time again a few gets approved but that's after some serous renegotiations and changes to the budget

I'm glad we got a radar
So we would not have to use the Cuban radar anymore
which don't work that often BTW


Agreed, especially the bold part.... I just keep thinking how super it would have been to watch Paloma or Gustav on this new radar.... lol
damn day, sick with chikungunya and a hot weather coming from hell

SevereStudios @severestudios · 31 seg

Tornado Warning for Lincoln County in NM until 3:15pm MDT.

Quoting lordhuracan01:
damn day, sick with chikungunya and a hot weather coming from hell

Ouch.
That sounds Dread !
Take care.
Quoting 593. lordhuracan01:

damn day, sick with chikungunya and a hot weather coming from hell


Hope you are feeling better soon. That sounds nasty....
Another 'ouch'%u2026

France playing Jamaica in a friendly, just finished.

France 8-0 Jamaica.
Heavy stuff.
Quoting 593. lordhuracan01:

damn day, sick with chikungunya and a hot weather coming from hell
Sounds like you've been walking through hell.
For big-ticket items, it always seems to be easier to fund the initial acquisition than to fund the long-term operating and maintenance costs. My cynical self says that's because the friends of the politicians know how to make money off the acquisition, but haven't (yet) figured out how to siphon money out of operating and maintenance budgets. So they aren't pushing for that, and without such a push, the politicians aren't motivated to find the money needed.
Quoting 550. mrsalagranny:

thats hitting mobile head on. I know too early to tell what or if its gonna happen. But wow what happened to a quiet year lol
Just because all of the experts predict a quiet year does not mean your not going to see several Tropical Storms hitting areas along the main Hurricane Belt from South Texas up to the Carolinas. I would not put too much stock in these early season predictions. Look what happened last year. All these guys with their hyper-season predictions fell flat on their faces and ended up eating plenty of crow. Just be prepared like you would any other season. The fact is NOBODY or NO COMPUTER can really tell you how many storms might occur.
Quoting 555. DCSwithunderscores:



(4/3) X Pi X 27.5 X 27.5 X 27.5 = about 87114

EDIT: PS The volume that you calculated would correspond to a radius of about 83 ft.


You're right. I can't imagine what I was thinking about. So, it's about 8,000 times bigger than the Chelyabinsk asteroid, rather than the 10-20 times in the article, and the 300 times I wrongly calculated.
Quoting 581. K8eCane:





I almost think the caymans are first world?


Lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
I disagree. The definition of 'imminent' is "on the way, about to happen, around the corner, a sure thing'. By using that term--and the context in which Dr. Ventrice used it makes it clear that's how it was intended--Dr.Ventrice is saying, "while the official stance is that there's still a three-in-ten chance that the El Ni%uFFFDo won't fully develop, that development is already well underway, and that El Ni%uFFFDo is at this point unavoidable." Nothing misleading; just a well-educated statement of expert opinion.

If you read the blog post carefully, you will see that it does not say that an el nino is unavoidable--as you and I both interpret imminent to mean. The head line overstates the case put forward in the article.

Note that your comment is putting words in Ventrice's mouth.

Edit: The article states that "there is potential for a big MJO event this month" and we know that MJO may be associated with westerly wind bursts which may be enough to initiate an el nino if the sea surface temps do not moderate. Lots of potential but not close to certainties. It is difficult to assign more than 80% chance of occurrence to an event like this anyway--which NOAA has already done, not just 70% as the headline says. The headline just pushes a bit too hard.

There are more egregious examples of misleading headlines, so there is that. It is hardly Daily Mail caliber, but it does use the standard appeal of many misleading headlines to doubt authority. With an 80% chance of occurrence NOAA has already said that an el nino is imminent if you want to relax your definition of imminent a bit, not unreasonable but then the headline is clearly misleading. The headline cherry picks the 70% number.

Note that if el nino occurs tomorrow it does not change the misleading nature of the headline since the headline is about what has already happened: NOAA has predicted 70% chance and 80% chances.
I honestly don't understand the white knight syndrome, but it is real.
Quoting 590. Saltydogbwi1:

img src="">

Pic taken from 7 mile beach Grand Cayman this morning. Photographer unknown this pic was posted on Neptune Divers FB page.

Yep that goes with what radar had this morning

Quoting 592. BahaHurican:

Agreed, especially the bold part.... I just keep thinking how super it would have been to watch Paloma or Gustav on this new radar.... lol

I badly wish we had this during Ernesto 2012, Rina 2011, Alex 2010, Karl 2010, Nicole 2010, Richard 2010, Paula 2010, Ida 2009, Dolly 2008, Fay 2008, Gustav 2008, Ike 2008, Paloma 2008, Dean 2007, Olga 2007, Arlene 2005, Dennis 2005, Emily 2005, Wilma 2005, Bonnie 2004, Charley 2004, and Ivan 2004.
I want to see if this GFS changes place of impact tomorrow,if it say Miami again,something is wrong...
Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 08 Jun 2014 06:00 to Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 07:21
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued for France, Belgium, Germany mainly for severe convective wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Sweden and northern Russia mainly for excessive convective rain.

A level 1 was issued for Latvia, Estonia, western Russia mainly for a chance of tornadoes and excessive rain.

A level 1 was issued for Bulgaria and Greece for a chance of large hail and severe wind gusts.

http://www.estofex.org/
Quoting 603. bappit:


If you read the blog post carefully, you will see that it does not say that an el nino is unavoidable--as you and I both interpret imminent to mean. The head line overstates the case put forward in the article.

Note that your comment is putting words in Ventrice's mouth.

FWIW, I agree... Based on the headline, I expected stronger evidence that El Nino was highly likely, if not certain. But it isn't there.

In particular, Figure 6 and its caption: "The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past two years shows a downward trend in recent months..." Given that the data are all over the place, and without a statistical analysis, I'm not convinced that the graph shows what the caption claims it does.
Be on the look out western Charlotte, Lee and Collier Counties.
Quoting 589. wxmod:



I haven't noticed anything about you either. But I did notice thousands of miles of fifty mile wide pollution trails coming out of ships in the Pacific. It's interesting to me that you are somehow offended by satellite images. Maybe you should get into another hobby. Most people think satellite imagery and data are pretty cool.
Not at all offended by your imagery. I guess when most comments seem designed to denigrate your views it becomes more difficult to tell when someone is just poking a little gentle fun at the idea of you needing a sock puppet. Frankly I found the idea rather amusing because you have always seemed quite able to express your ideas and "fight your corner" so to speak without being propped up by an alternative ID. Plus it was rather ironic for your "prediction" to come true so quickly.

I have to say: I am not knowledgeable enough about some of the pollution issues you focus on to establish or contradict your views, and I admit I'm more interested in studying tropical cyclones than the issues you espouse. HOWEVER I also have to add that despite the intense disapprobation you often experience here you have maintained a high degree of dignity, especially for this blog, and that I respect. I also respect the attitude of concern about what happens to our environment as a responsible one. Additionally you always have interesting imagery to post, which I enjoy.

So really, I don't have any problems with you, wxmod....
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

FLZ041-044>046-053-141-082315-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE
COUNTY-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
520 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER NORTHEAST LAKE...ORANGE...
WEST OSCEOLA...SEMINOLE...AND WEST VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT.

AT 517 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING SOUTH OF
LAKE GEORGE...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH LAKE AND SOUTH VOLUSIA
COUNTIES HAD PRODUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WERE ON A COLLISION
COURSE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE ORLANDO METRO AREA AS THESE BOUNDARIES MERGE
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR...ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM DELAND
TO LAKE KISSIMMEE. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS WHICH MAY
EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL INCLUDE KISSIMMEE...
ORLANDO...SANFORD...AND DELAND.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS OR CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER
INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...CAUSING TEMPORARY PONDING ON
SOME ROADS AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING
AND LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 2937 8142 2927 8141 2927 8116 2772 8116
2783 8122 2806 8145 2802 8138 2808 8135
2808 8145 2814 8146 2814 8153 2825 8156
2826 8166 2910 8164 2932 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 010DEG 17KT 2884 8133

$$



612. FOREX
GFS 18Z is running.
Hi everyone,
Sorry to bug you but where do I find the forecast models for the Atlantic Basin (European, NOGAPS, ect.) on the website.

Thanks
Quoting 605. wunderkidcayman:


Yep that goes with what radar had this morning


I badly wish we had this during Ernesto 2012, Rina 2011, Alex 2010, Karl 2010, Nicole 2010, Richard 2010, Paula 2010, Ida 2009, Dolly 2008, Fay 2008, Gustav 2008, Ike 2008, Paloma 2008, Dean 2007, Olga 2007, Arlene 2005, Dennis 2005, Emily 2005, Wilma 2005, Bonnie 2004, Charley 2004, and Ivan 2004.
Geez... even one of these radars up in '04 or '05 would have been BODACIOUSly super... lol Did even MX have up their radars when Wilma hit there? Somehow I don't think so....
Quoting 608. EstherD:


FWIW, I agree... Based on the headline, I expected stronger evidence that El Nino was highly likely, if not certain. But it isn't there.

In particular, Figure 6 and its caption: "The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for the past two years shows a downward trend in recent months..." Given that the data are all over the place, and without a statistical analysis, I'm not convinced that the graph shows what the caption claims it does.
Note that the most recent month on Fig 6 is March; several posters put up the latest SOI graphs in early comments that showed that the index rose again right after the final plot on Fig 6 and although it dropped again it had not as of that chart reached the "0" line again. So the SOI is still positive, though working its way toward negative territory.
Quoting 606. LargoFl:

I want to see if this GFS changes place of impact tomorrow,if it say Miami again,something is wrong...
Didn't we see this kind of window-wiper effect with the GFS before?
I think I'm sticking with my view of GFS veracity in the cyclogenesis point and speculation in the landfall location for now....
Guys in Central Florida that have been missing out on the rain, here it comes. Also, S.W. Florida strong storms just to your east.
618. beell
Quoting 613. jitterboy:

Hi everyone,
Sorry to bug you but where do I find the forecast models for the Atlantic Basin (European, NOGAPS, ect.) on the website.

Thanks


Ha! Good Luck! If they are here on this website it is less than obvious...and takes a multitude of clicks to get it to display. I think you can save your preferences. I prefer off-site for this information.

Quoting CaneFreeCR:
Note that the most recent month on Fig 6 is March; several posters put up the latest SOI graphs in early comments that showed that the index rose again right after the final plot on Fig 6 and although it dropped again it had not as of that chart reached the "0" line again. So the SOI is still positive, though working its way toward negative territory.


Yeah, I'm no expert in El Nino but the SOI has me scratching my head for sure. It's been climbing again lately.

THU-SAT (MODIFIED PREV)...12Z GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP LAYER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. GIVEN THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON
MAKING SOMETHING OUT OF (ALMOST) NOTHING IN THAT AREA FOR THE BETTER
PART LAST TWO WEEKS...NOT BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO. THE ECMWF DOES
INDICATES HEALTHY MOISTURE LEVELS AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING TWD THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEKEND...ESPEC THU
AND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE 40 PCT RANGE FOR NOW FOR LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THE INTERIOR.

Repost. NWS in Melbourne Fl
If the article logically argued for an imminent el nino via the mechanism it describes, then all parts of the chain of cause and effect that it outlines would have to also be described as imminent.

An MJO at the end of this month would have to be imminent, not merely have a strong potential. Westerly wind bursts produced by this imminent MJO would also have to be imminent. And so forth.
Quoting 621. bappit:

If the article logically argued for an imminent el nino via the mechanism it describes, then all parts of the chain of cause and effect that it outlines would have to also be described as imminent.

An MJO at the end of this month would have to be imminent, not merely have a strong potential. Westerly wind bursts produced by this imminent MJO would also have to be imminent. And so forth.
For me the hardest part of "imminent" in that headline is fighting the feeling that it is redundant. I guess I have been hanging around wx prognosticators for so long now that 70% reads like "soon here" to me... lol...
623. FOREX
So far, GFS 18Z through 132 hours, the future low has not made an appearance.
Nasty stuff to my north.
Quoting 613. jitterboy:

Hi everyone,
Sorry to bug you but where do I find the forecast models for the Atlantic Basin (European, NOGAPS, ect.) on the website.

Thanks


http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ then go down to Other Online Resources.....
It is pretty much where it was under the old regime.
Quoting 593. lordhuracan01:

damn day, sick with chikungunya and a hot weather coming from hell


Hope you are better soon. My county here in Florida has one person with this and they are warning us to be careful about mosquitoes.
nw carib.? no chance until the epac glob skidaddles
628. beell
Quoting 625. PedleyCA:



http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ then go down to Other Online Resources.....
It is pretty much where it was under the old regime.


I did some checking, Ped. Although I must admit I'm a first-time user, lol.

Wundermap
turn off the weather stations and radar
click on continent "floating menu" at far left or zoom way out/pan
scroll down to "model data" at far right
click on the "gear" (settings icon)
select model, map type, and run time
Be sure and "Save Prefs" at top left right.
We had a wild one come through West Palm Beach/Lake Worth early this morning. One of the nosiest storms so far this year.

Quoting 628. beell:



I did some checking, Ped. Although I must admit I'm a first-time user, lol.

Wundermap
turn off the weather stations and radar
click on continent "floating menu" at far left or zoom way out/pan
scroll down to "model data" at far right
click on the "gear" (settings icon)
select model, map type, and run time
Be sure and "Save Prefs" at top left.



That would be another options and as was offsite.... That would have taken hours for me to explain. I know there is aplace on wundermap but that doesn't play nice with my browser (Firefox) so I don't use it much.
632. FOREX
Through 162 hours, the future low is nowhere to be found on the GFS 18Z run.
Quoting 632. FOREX:

Through 162 hours, the future low is nowhere to be found on the GFS 18Z run.


Some bloggers could be "somewhat" disappointed if the GFS drops the low...

I personally hate when models drop a system supposed to come my way, and bring me rain, thunder, winds... lol.
Quoting 632. FOREX:

Through 162 hours, the future low is nowhere to be found on the GFS 18Z run.


So it was sent Back to the Future or Days of Future Past?
636. beell
Quoting 630. PedleyCA:



That would be another options and as was offsite.... That would have taken hours for me to explain. I know there is aplace on wundermap but that doesn't play nice with my browser (Firefox) so I don't use it much.


The Wundermap is a great idea but may choke more than a few browsers until the selected animation loads.
Thanks for adding on!
:)
637. FOREX
Quoting 634. CaribBoy:



Some bloggers could be "somewhat" disappointed if the GFS drops the low...

I personally hate when models drop a system supposed to come my way, and bring me rain, thunder, winds... lol.


I'm very disappointed.lol
Quoting 613. jitterboy:

Hi everyone,
Sorry to bug you but where do I find the forecast models for the Atlantic Basin (European, NOGAPS, ect.) on the website.

Thanks
Quoting 625. PedleyCA:



http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/ then go down to Other Online Resources.....
It is pretty much where it was under the old regime.

Thank you
639. FOREX
Quoting 637. FOREX:



I'm very disappointed.lol


The low has finally shown up at 186 hours.
640. beell
Quoting 635. GeoffreyWPB:



So it was sent Back to the Future or Days of Future Past?


Gawd, I hope so. Never before in the history of mankind has so much been said about so little!
The key word here is shear...Nothing has a chance to form....At least for the next week....
Lol. GFS.
Oh GFS.... lol
DOOM!!! 300 hrs. out style. ;)



Dances around and somehow ends up in the Central Gulf.




Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
DOOM!!! 300 hrs. out style. ;)



Dances around and somehow ends up in the Central Gulf.





lol. close
Typical ghost storm on the GFS long range. I can only imagine what the CMC will now try to spin up. It's interesting though, but too far out to take seriously. If it gets down to 7 days then we can start talking.
648. FOREX
Quoting 647. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Typical ghost storm on the GFS long range. I can only imagine what the CMC will now try to spin up. It's interesting though, but too far out to take seriously. If it gets down to 7 days then we can start talking.


Let's start talking now.lol
Quoting 646. AtHomeInTX:




lol. close
It moves ashore TX/LA border. Wait till Kori sees this.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Typical ghost storm on the GFS long range. I can only imagine what the CMC will now try to spin up. It's interesting though, but too far out to take seriously. If it gets down to 7 days then we can start talking.


Funny thing is the CMC doesn't show anything in that time.
651. FOREX
Quoting 649. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It moves ashore TX/LA border. Wait till Kori sees this.


Looks like it makes its first landfall in Panama city beach at 312 hours, then hugs the coast, moving Westward, making a second landfall on the TX/LA border. Interesting to watch this possibly play out.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Typical ghost storm on the GFS long range. I can only imagine what the CMC will now try to spin up. It's interesting though, but too far out to take seriously. If it gets down to 7 days then we can start talking.


Yeah, I put no stock in it. I think what happened, watching some of the models, is the EURO was showing low pressure moving out of the NW Carib but always moved it west. For a few runs in their 7+ day range or so. Then showed more ridging that kept it all over land so nothing spun up. May be what this latest run of the GFS showed. One thing, even in the bigger patterns over the U.S. the two big models have disagreed a lot lately. I'm not sure what's going on.
Quoting 640. beell:



Gawd, I hope so. Never before in the history of mankind has so much been said about so little!
What can I say beside "it's June, for heaven's sake"....
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
It moves ashore TX/LA border. Wait till Kori sees this.


lol. yeah :)
Maybe the GFS has taken the place of the CMC,goodness! these runs are getting silly.
Quoting 649. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It moves ashore TX/LA border. Wait till Kori sees this.
Sad to say, it likely won't be there on the next run....
657. FOREX
Quoting 656. BahaHurican:

Sad to say, it likely won't be there on the next run....


When all is said and done it will cross over to the E Pacific then back into the BOC and then back again to the E PAC.
Quoting 586. hurricanewatcher61:

THU-SAT (MODIFIED PREV)...12Z GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WELL
DEVELOPED DEEP LAYER CLOSED LOW/TROUGH MOVING NORTH FROM THE NWRN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX. GIVEN THE MODELS INSISTENCE ON
MAKING SOMETHING OUT OF (ALMOST) NOTHING IN THAT AREA FOR THE BETTER
PART LAST TWO WEEKS...NOT BUYING INTO THIS SCENARIO. THE ECMWF DOES
INDICATES HEALTHY MOISTURE LEVELS AND SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH MOVING TWD THE EAST COAST TO START THE WEEKEND...ESPEC THU
AND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS IN THE 40 PCT RANGE FOR NOW FOR LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 COAST TO THE LOWER 90S FOR
THE INTERIOR.

I guess the NWS in Melbourne is not buying the GFS solution.


Of course the National Weather Service would not buy the GFS, anyone saying anything credible in meteorology right now wouldn't give GFS the time of day even. The computer model has CONSTANTLY been predicting something tropical for almost two weeks now on nearly every single run. This means the GFS is completely out to lunch on tropical development and is a model that really should not be trusted at all until it gets something right. Of course if the Euro jumps on with this idea, then by all means you can probably start trusting it, but when it is just one model and has constantly been the only one getting things wrong, any experienced forecaster would give the GFS zero weight in their forecasts at this time in the season.

Not attacking you, just ranting :). Frankly starting to get so tired of seeing the GFS images of 120hr +.
On the GFS....

0 - 120 hours = fairly likely
132 - 240 hours = something to talk about
252 - 360 hours = fantasy football plays...

The really scary thing about this model is that very very occasionally those apparently "crazy" scenarios actually work out in reality.... problem is knowing WHEN.... lol
Quoting 658. boltdwright:



Of course the National Weather Service would not buy the GFS, anyone saying anything credible in meteorology right now wouldn't give GFS the time of day even. The computer model has CONSTANTLY been predicting something tropical for almost two weeks now on nearly every single run. This means the GFS is completely out to lunch on tropical development and is a model that really should not be trusted at all until it gets something right. Of course if the Euro jumps on with this idea, then by all means you can probably start trusting it, but when it is just one model and has constantly been the only one getting things wrong, any experienced forecaster would give the GFS zero weight in their forecasts at this time in the season.

Not attacking you, just ranting :). Frankly starting to get so tired of seeing the GFS images of 120hr +.
It's like TC wx porn....




WOW!!!
662. FOREX
Quoting 661. hurricanes2018:





WOW!!!


Makes multiple landfalls on this run.
lol. Thanks for the giggles Baha. :)
Trying to think of recent hurricanes that we would have considered GFS fantasyland if the actual tracks had been seen 240 - 360 hrs out.... the one that immediately comes to mind is Ike...



And maybe Jeanne... maybe Fay....
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's like TC wx porn....


Really can't blame them, we've been pretty badly deprived of interesting tropical cyclones to track the last year or so.
18Z................................................ .................................................. .
Quoting 666. CybrTeddy:



Really can't blame them, we've been pretty badly deprived of interesting tropical cyclones to track the last year or so.
Agree.... normally I don't bother looking at long-range GFS frame by frame, but this has been kinda fun.... even knowing with a logical mind that there is less than 1 % chance this will even show up on the 00z run... lol...
Quoting 665. BahaHurican:

Trying to think of recent hurricanes that we would have considered GFS fantasyland if the actual tracks had been seen 240 - 360 hrs out.... the one that immediately comes to mind is Ike...
Ike in June does not sound good.
well its getting closer to the time when in june.........I remember this one alright.................Tropical Storm Debby caused extensive flooding in North Florida and the Florida Panhandle during late June 2012. The fourth tropical cyclone and named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Debby developed from a trough of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico on June 23. Despite a projected track toward landfall in Louisiana or Texas, the storm headed the opposite direction, moving slowly north-northeast and northeastward. The storm slowly strengthened, and at 1800 UTC on June 25, attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Dry air, westerly wind shear, and upwelling of cold waters prevented further intensification over the next 24 hours. Instead, Debby weakened, and by late on June 26, it was a minimal tropical storm. At 2100 UTC, the storm made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida with winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Once inland, the system continued to weaken while crossing Florida, and dissipated shortly after emerging into the Atlantic on June 27.
Quoting 668. BahaHurican:

Agree.... normally I don't bother looking at long-range GFS frame by frame, but this has been kinda fun.... even knowing with a logical mind that there is less than 1 % chance this will even show up on the 00z run... lol...
yeah but it IS june and we need to keep an eye on the carribean,and it is..season now...
672. FOREX
I wish WKC was on so we could get his take on this potential, but unlikely Hurricane in the Gulf.
61 years ago, the deadliest tornado in Michigan's history struck the Flint, MI area. The tornado destroyed parts of Flint, with most of the destruction in the Beecher area. 116 people were killed by the tornado, which made it the deadliest in modern record-keeping until the Joplin tornado. $19 million (1953 USD) in damages were caused and the tornado was rated F5. Other tornadoes, including 2 F4's, touched down in Michigan that day.

The Flint-Beecher F5 is one of only 4 F5 tornadoes in Michigan history, with only 2 occurring during the modern day era (the other is the Hudsonville-Standale, Grand Rapids area, tornado that happened on April 3rd, 1956). The last F4/F5 tornado to occur in Southeast Michigan was an F4 that hit West Bloomfield in 1976, meaning it's been 38 years since the last violent tornado.
Curiously enough, on June 8th, 2003, 3 tornadoes touched down in SE MI. One went through southern Genesee County when commemorations for the 50th anniversary of the Flint F5 were taking place.
Flint tornado info from NWS Detroit
Quoting 670. LargoFl:

well its getting closer to the time when in june.........I remember this one alright.................Tropical Storm Debby caused extensive flooding in North Florida and the Florida Panhandle during late June 2012. The fourth tropical cyclone and named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, Debby developed from a trough of low pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico on June 23. Despite a projected track toward landfall in Louisiana or Texas, the storm headed the opposite direction, moving slowly north-northeast and northeastward. The storm slowly strengthened, and at 1800 UTC on June 25, attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph (100 km/h). Dry air, westerly wind shear, and upwelling of cold waters prevented further intensification over the next 24 hours. Instead, Debby weakened, and by late on June 26, it was a minimal tropical storm. At 2100 UTC, the storm made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida with winds of 40 mph (65 km/h). Once inland, the system continued to weaken while crossing Florida, and dissipated shortly after emerging into the Atlantic on June 27.
Afternoon Largo.

Was it GFS or Euro that called it right with Debby? I remember nobody really believed it would behave the way it did.... and I also remember the heavy rainfall. I think sometimes we forget the TS's main danger is the amount of water it can transport...
Yawn!.The GFS showing another situation which will not likely come true.This model is absolutely pointless now.
676. beell

June 1st through June 6th-500 mb heights/composite mean

Can you really blame the poor GFS (don't answer that)?
Quoting 675. washingtonian115:

Yawn!.The GFS showing another situation which will not likely come true.This model is absolutely pointless now.
The GFS is now the CMC's brother from another mother.
Quoting wxchaser97:
61 years ago, the deadliest tornado in Michigan's history struck the Flint, MI area. The tornado destroyed parts of Flint, with most of the destruction in the Beecher area. 116 people were killed by the tornado, which made it the deadliest in modern record-keeping until the Joplin tornado. $19 million (1953 USD) in damages were caused and the tornado was rated F5. Other tornadoes, including 2 F4's, touched down in Michigan that day.

The Flint-Beecher F5 is one of only 4 F5 tornadoes in Michigan history, with only 2 occurring during the modern day era (the other is the Hudsonville-Standale, Grand Rapids area, tornado that happened on April 3rd, 1956). The last F4/F5 tornado to occur in Southeast Michigan was an F4 that hit West Bloomfield in 1976, meaning it's been 38 years since the last violent tornado.
Curiously enough, on June 8th, 2003, 3 tornadoes touched down in SE MI. One went through southern Genesee County when commemorations for the 50th anniversary of the Flint F5 were taking place.
Flint tornado info from NWS Detroit


Oh my. Tornadoes scare me to death! I am grateful they don't come around my area too often. At least with a hurricane there is usually warning time. Oddly enough, our day for bad weather seems to be September 13 with hurricanes affecting our area. Humberto and Ike a year apart were the last two examples.
Quoting 606. LargoFl:

I want to see if this GFS changes place of impact tomorrow,if it say Miami again,something is wrong...


Split the difference, it'll hit Tampa...
I mean the point of models are really get useless to me personally i mean does the GFS need an upgrade? We can predict the weather using current weather maps and radar and see the wind patterns to predict where storms will go and where they might form using certain weather maps, the GFS uses current atmospheric data so...
Homo sapiens and their weather models.

682. beell

00Z ECMWF (left) / GFS (right) 168-240 hr mean 500 mb height anomalies

A difference WRT ridge weakness.
Hmmm... reading the Google report on Ike and noting that absolutely no mention was made of the fact that Ike passed directly over Inagua Island in the extreme SE Bahamas:

During the afternoon and overnight, Ike had winds sustained at 135 mph (217 km/h) as it approached and passed over the Turks and Caicos Islands by the early morning hours of September 7.[37]

Ike made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Holguín Province, Cuba on the evening of September 7, near Cabo Lucrecia on the northern coast.[4][38]


Between 06 and 18 z on the 7th September, Ike moved along 21 N, which is the latitude along which Inagua lies. I do know the residents there experienced the eyewall, and damage was extensive.

Quoting 680. Climate175:

I mean the point of models are really get useless to me personally i mean does the GFS need an upgrade? We can predict the weather using current weather maps and radar and see the wind patterns and Jet stream to predict where storms will go and where they might form.
Jedkins said earlier today that the GFS may have some issues..I have not had time to even look it over. It does seem to be off by more than a few degrees, especially where tropics are concerned.
Second batch of storm heading toward the DC/Baltimore area. Some have severe warnings with them.
Quoting beell:

ECMWF (left) / GFS (right) 168-240 hr mean 500 mb height anomalies

A difference WRT to ridge weakness.


Ah, then I was reading them right. :)
687. beell

12Z as in post 682.
Quoting 675. washingtonian115:

Yawn!.The GFS showing another situation which will not likely come true.This model is absolutely pointless now.
Still think people are not using the long-range as it should be used. As Levi pointed out some years ago, long-range esp. more than 10 days, is designed to show trends, not specific events. While I've been enjoying some of the different scenarios put forth by the long-range, what I have been taking away as a serious wx maven is that we are now in the season, and the typical areas in the S GoM and in the W Car are potentially available for development before the month is out. That's why I keep stressing look at the START point, which is where there is potential for development, and not the END point, which is entirely dependent on steering and other upper atmospheric conditions which are very much "up in the air" 2 weeks out.

What I'm noticing is that the GFS is keeping this general area of low pressure more or less in the same area for the next 120 to 240, which means I can expect showers and downpours at random moments for the next 10 days or so...

Watching individual runs on the long-range may be fun, or not your cup of tea. The important thing is to see the big picture with it and not focus on what end up being irrelevant details.
why spaceweather has nothing on the "beast" asteroid is beyond me. dang it was hot today.
Pop up storms, why u no come south to the coast??!!!!
Quoting 690. opal92nwf:

Pop up storms, why u no come south to the coast??!!!!



Anything coming towards the coast here in Houston gets squished too. Very little comes off the Gulf either, 2012 was the first time I remember seeing afternoon thunderstorms since I moved here.
There is more ensemble model support with this potential storm than the one for 90L. and it starts showing up at around 200 hrs., so something to keep an eye on in a few days to see if the GFS stays consistent.



Quoting 659. BahaHurican:

On the GFS....

0 - 120 hours = fairly likely
132 - 240 hours = something to talk about
252 - 360 hours = fantasy football plays...

The really scary thing about this model is that very very occasionally those apparently "crazy" scenarios actually work out in reality.... problem is knowing WHEN.... lol
Like Hurricane Sandy. October 20th, 2012 runs showed Sandy making the left hook into the northeast coast of the USA.
Quoting 685. Climate175:

Second batch of storm heading toward the DC/Baltimore area. Some have severe warnings with them.

There was a tornado warning somewhere on that line a little while ago.
Decent rotation on warned storm in Arkansas. Likely had a tornado earlier.
Quoting 672. FOREX:

I wish WKC was on so we could get his take on this potential, but unlikely Hurricane in the Gulf.


I am here

GFS shows system 102hrs out as just a broad trof of low pressure but doesn't consolidate the low until 168hrs make it to TS around 216hrs and moderate TS before leaving the NW Caribbean 252hrs then becomes strong TS maybe even a possible Cat 1 hurricane and big jump in landfall now it's in Texas but not before slapping Florida in the head
I like this run it has given me a really good laugh
I still do believe we could get an invest maybe even a TS in the W Caribbean late this upcoming week going into weekend and would move into the GOM after that but in terms of landfall and strength it's way way way way too early
Quoting 692. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is more ensemble model support with this potential storm than the one for 90L. and it starts showing up at around 200 hrs., so something to keep an eye on in a few days to see if the GFS stays consistent.






Yes something to watch during the next few days
Just for fun
18Z



If the Euro starts showing a low, I would think the possibility of a decent storm exists...It is rare when all the models predict a system and it does not occur.
Quoting 659. BahaHurican:

On the GFS....

0 - 120 hours = fairly likely
132 - 240 hours = something to talk about
252 - 360 hours = fantasy football plays...

The really scary thing about this model is that very very occasionally those apparently "crazy" scenarios actually work out in reality.... problem is knowing WHEN.... lol


Even under 120 hours, you got to look at other models like Euro, NAM, etc.
Possible tornado heading into Ogden, AR. I hope everyone there is in their shelter.
They are three important models to watch for a storm. GFS,CMC AND EURO. when one of the models show a storm I just watch it for fun knowing there is a 90% that nothing is going to happen. When two of them show it I start taking it more seriously and when the three of them show it. Its almost a deal that something is going to form it might vary from an invest to a hurricane.
Raining again here.
Quoting 699. hydrus:

If the Euro starts showing a low, I would think the possibility of a decent storm exists...It is rare when all the models predict a system and it does not occur.
FIM is showing it too. Guess we wait for tonight's run of the Euro to see what we have going on. If we are going to get a system early in the season the Western Caribbean would be the sweet spot, high TCHP and usually doesn't feature high wind shear like the GOM or MDR.

705. FOREX
Quoting 704. GTstormChaserCaleb:

FIM is showing it too. Guess we wait for tonight's run of the Euro to see what we have going on. If we are going to get a system early in the season the Western Caribbean would be the sweet spot, high TCHP and usually doesn't feature high wind shear like the GOM or MDR.




So between the FIM and GFS we have three potential areas for landfall. Tampa, Panhandle and Texas.



lots of severe weather tonight!!
Quoting 703. BahaHurican:

Raining again here.
For you Baha..I always kinda dug this tune..Link
tornado warning for Texarkana
Quoting 707. hydrus:

For you Baha..I always kinda dug this tune..Link
Wow.... had not heard that in years!!!
Tornado Warning around Martinsburg, Maryland


EDIT: Seems to have expired, still a severe thunderstorm warning though.
Quoting 704. GTstormChaserCaleb:

FIM is showing it too. Guess we wait for tonight's run of the Euro to see what we have going on. If we are going to get a system early in the season the Western Caribbean would be the sweet spot, high TCHP and usually doesn't feature high wind shear like the GOM or MDR.


yep..The FIM is a little too aggressive when it comes to tropical cyclones..I am not implying that the Euro is king, but I feel that if it does latch on, we will have something to watch.
Quoting 704. GTstormChaserCaleb:

FIM is showing it too. Guess we wait for tonight's run of the Euro to see what we have going on. If we are going to get a system early in the season the Western Caribbean would be the sweet spot, high TCHP and usually doesn't feature high wind shear like the GOM or MDR.


Where does the system go on the FIM?
Quoting 709. BahaHurican:

Wow.... had not heard that in years!!!
The song in its entirety is actually quite good...I like Supertramp...They sound exactly like the record in concert.
Not buying any forecast of a storm exiting the Caribbean. Early season development is heavily dependent on a coherent MJO signal, and the MJO is forecast to amplify and slowly progress across only the West and Central Pacific through the end of the month. GFS seems to be suffering from some sort of convective feedback issue--it has developed a storm either in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico for almost every run for the past 2 weeks. And the timeframe for development has hardly changed.
Quoting 707. hydrus:

For you Baha..I always kinda dug this tune..Link


The Pickwick Drive-in at the early part of this video (was) in Burbank and I have been there a few times.
It is now an Equestrian Center. Ah, the good Old Days..... lol
Quoting 715. PedleyCA:



The Pickwick Drive-in at the early part of this video (was) in Burbank and I have been there a few times.
It is now an Equestrian Center. A the good Old Days..... lol
Yep I was in High School when that was released..I was already hooked by there unique sound in 79..:)
There are threats for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast in late June.
718. FOREX
POLL: Where will the 00Z GFS show landfall?
A. Texas
B. Tampa
C. Florida Panhandle
D. Miami
E. All of the above
Quoting 718. FOREX:

POLL: Where will the 00Z GFS show landfall?
A. Texas
B. Tampa
C. Florida Panhandle
D. Miami
E. All of the above
E....Might even have to slap Maine on your list...Sheesh
Repeat....

Quoting 683. BahaHurican:

Hmmm... reading the Google report on Ike and noting that absolutely no mention was made of the fact that Ike passed directly over Inagua Island in the extreme SE Bahamas:

During the afternoon and overnight, Ike had winds sustained at 135 mph (217 km/h) as it approached and passed over the Turks and Caicos Islands by the early morning hours of September 7.[37]

Ike made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Holguín Province, Cuba on the evening of September 7, near Cabo Lucrecia on the northern coast.[4][38]


Between 06 and 18 z on the 7th September, Ike moved along 21 N, which is the latitude along which Inagua lies. I do know the residents there experienced the eyewall, and damage was extensive.


Quoting 707. hydrus:

For you Baha..I always kinda dug this tune..Link


takes me back to high school
Quoting 721. midnite02:



takes me back to high school

I said that too at post #716.
The GFS ensembles actually are differing from what the actual GFS run said.
724. FOREX
Quoting 723. Climate175:

The GFS ensembles actually are differing from what the actual GFS run said.


What are the ensembles saying, Tampa?
Quoting 705. FOREX:



So between the FIM and GFS we have three potential areas for landfall. Tampa, Panhandle and Texas.


That's 330 hours out = fantasy land.
Quoting 724. FOREX:



What are the ensembles saying, Tampa?
It is a Tampa hit yes.
Ensembles show it approaching.
You guys funny
Talking landfalls time too soon
Let's talk about the forecast calling for a TS to develop first before we get to where this possible system will make landfall
729. FOREX
Quoting 728. wunderkidcayman:

You guys funny
Talking landfalls time too soon
Let's talk about the forecast calling for a TS to develop first before we get to where this possible system will make landfall


Still fun to watch the GFS every 6 hours.
Quoting 728. wunderkidcayman:

You guys funny
Talking landfalls time too soon
Let's talk about the forecast calling for a TS to develop first before we get to where this possible system will make landfall
lol
Invest 94E is looking nice this evening--given that it has shed its excess convection for a better-defined group of storms, I'd say the system now has a concise center of circulation.

crow has gone extinct from all the crow I had from my busted forecast last week which was based on gfs fantasyland. I am not going to believe there will be a storm until gfs shows it forming within 3 days. The long range models do point at lower pressures in the Caribbean, and all we can say at this point is that the Caribbean might get some rains, but beyond that is fantasy.
736. Salt
Jeff,
We suggest you check the moon forecast. WU calls it "waning". According to our info and observation, it is "waxing". Needless to say, if we are correct, this mistake does not raise confidence in your forecasts, which we find quite good.
Cordially,
Lydia and Sam Taylor
I know what will happen during that time: WEATHER
something to watch here
Quoting 731. Grothar:


IMO as long as there is a fair concentration of energy on the other side of the CA isthmus we're not going to see much going here. This is the REAL reason the GFS keeps pushing back on development, imo. It thinks that monsoon trough should be lifting outta there, but it's not.
Quoting 734. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 94E is looking nice this evening--given that it has shed its excess convection for a better-defined group of storms, I'd say the system now has a concise center of circulation.


This is what GFS is forecasting to head NW as a low-level hurricane, yes? We are moving into the NHC's original day 3 IIRC, so I'm expecting we'll see some consolidation with this overnight and into tomorrow...

BTW, is it you who does some stuff with the Wiki updates?
Quoting 736. Salt:

Jeff,
We suggest you check the moon forecast. WU calls it "waning". According to our info and observation, it is "waxing". Needless to say, if we are correct, this mistake does not raise confidence in your forecasts, which we find quite good.
Cordially,
Lydia and Sam Taylor
You might want to copy this text to a WUmail and send it to him.
...Flash Flood Watch in effect from 1 am CDT Monday through Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of east Arkansas...north Mississippi...southeast Missouri and west Tennessee... including the following areas...in east Arkansas...Clay... Craighead...Crittenden...cross...Greene...Lawrence ...Lee... Mississippi...Phillips...Poinsett...Randolph and St. Francis. In north Mississippi...Alcorn...Benton...Calhoun...Chickasa w... Coahoma...DeSoto...Itawamba...Lafayette...Lee...Ma rshall... Monroe...Panola...Pontotoc...Prentiss...Quitman... Tallahatchie...Tate...Tippah...Tishomingo...Tunica ...Union and Yalobusha. In southeast Missouri...Dunklin and Pemiscot. In west Tennessee...Benton...Carroll...Chester...Crockett. .. Decatur...Dyer...Fayette...Gibson...Hardeman...Har din... Haywood...Henderson...Henry...Lake...Lauderdale... Madison... McNairy...Obion...Shelby...Tipton and Weakley.

* From 1 am CDT Monday through Tuesday evening

* heavy rain from thunderstorms may produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall.

* Low water crossings may quickly become flooded and Road closures from the heavy rains will be possible. Urban sewer systems may become backed up posing additional flooding on city streets. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. Vehicles caught in rising water should be abandoned quickly. If your vehicle stalls... abandon it and seek higher ground immediately. Rapidly rising water may engulf your vehicle and its occupants and sweep them away. Move to higher ground.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
Quoting 728. wunderkidcayman:

You guys funny
Talking landfalls time too soon
Let's talk about the forecast calling for a TS to develop first before we get to where this possible system will make landfall


Then practice what you preach.
What I was trying to post earlier. Loud night in West Palm/Lake Worth early morning...

Quoting 718. FOREX:

POLL: Where will the 00Z GFS show landfall?
A. Texas
B. Tampa
C. Florida Panhandle
D. Miami
E. All of the above


F: Eastern Pacific
747. FOREX
49 minutes till 00Z GFS. should be interesting after what 18Z showed.lol


16 days out. I'm sure it will be very accurate :)
Classic site shows: Waxing Gibbous, 80% of the Moon is Illuminated
New Site: Moon Waning Gibbous
Whoever does these things is asleep at the switch, or ??
Quoting 748. WIBadgerWeather:
16 days out. I'm sure it will be very accurate :)

I bet etxwx is right on that ;)
Quoting 689. WaterWitch11:

why spaceweather has nothing on the "beast" asteroid is beyond me. dang it was hot today.

It's there... in the "Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters" table in the "Near Earth Asteroids" section:
   2014 HQ124     Jun 8     3.3 LD     160 m

The size estimate, 160m == 525ft, is at the low end of the numbers being tossed around by the media. But that could be because: 1) The media is exaggerating. 2) JPL/NASA is being conservative. 3) The size estimate has been refined downwards due to new observations at closest encounter. 4) Some combination of the previous 3 items.
Quoting 748. WIBadgerWeather:



16 days out. I'm sure it will be very accurate :)


Oh and now we are 16 days out with this "system" again? Whatever... The models do not have a clue.
Quoting 740. BahaHurican:

This is what GFS is forecasting to head NW as a low-level hurricane, yes? We are moving into the NHC's original day 3 IIRC, so I'm expecting we'll see some consolidation with this overnight and into tomorrow...

BTW, is it you who does some stuff with the Wiki updates?

The GFS, among other models, were bullish with the storm yesterday, with most making it a Category 2 hurricane by day 5. Today, they're all much more reserved, with a peak below hurricane intensity. I have doubts about this though--especially with a strong kelvin wave traversing the Pacific. We've seen time and time again that these waves can initiate rapid intensification, with some of the better examples including this year's Hurricane Amanda and last year's Hurricane Raymond.

To answer your Wiki question, several people update Wikipedia. It'd depend on what page/part of the page you were specifically referring to.
754. etxwx
Quoting 750. BaltimoreBrian:


I bet etxwx is right on that ;)


I'm counting on AtHomeinTexas to give me the official heads up...she's first in line for that one. Let's hope it's a model fantasy!
Quoting 689. WaterWitch11:

why spaceweather has nothing on the "beast" asteroid is beyond me. dang it was hot today.

Or maybe you meant: "Why no banner headline?"

Perhaps because Spaceweather thinks it's not as big a deal as the media circus is making of it?

The media hype was pedicated on "We missed a BIG one!" If in fact 2014 HQ124 really is only ~500ft in diameter, then it's not so surprising that it wasn't discovered until so late. As the original WU news article says: "According to National Geographic, only 30 percent of the smaller (less than 500-foot) space rocks have been spotted."
Quoting 736. Salt:

Jeff,
We suggest you check the moon forecast. WU calls it "waning". According to our info and observation, it is "waxing". Needless to say, if we are correct, this mistake does not raise confidence in your forecasts, which we find quite good.
Cordially,
Lydia and Sam Taylor

It appears to be because the moon phase table calculation thinks the date is "Jun 17" [!] Waning Gibbous does appear to be correct for said date, as erroneous as that date may be given that today is Jun 8. However, other astronomical stuff seems to be OK... just the moon phase table appears to be wrong.
Quoting etxwx:


I'm counting on AtHomeinTexas to give me the official heads up...she's first in line for that one. Let's hope it's a model fantasy!


lol. Luckily there's probably a 99.9% chance that one won't happen. But I'm watching. And yep you'd hear from me right off. :)
The MJO -- which has been rather incoherent over the past few weeks -- is finally starting to amplify as it enters the West Pacific. Whether this is the final kicker for an El Nino remains to be seen, but at the very least, it should help to warm equatorial waters as easterly winds, which upwell the water, are replaced by calmer westerly winds.

The MJO isn't forecast to move appreciably through late June, meaning the West Pacific may see a few storms out of this. We'll see.

Past late June, the CFS has been forecasting the MJO to eject into the West Hemisphere, which should act as a jumpstarter for several storms in the East Pacific. Perhaps our first Atlantic storm if we haven't seen one by then.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The MJO -- which has been rather incoherent over the past few weeks -- is finally starting to amplify as it enters the West Pacific. Whether this is the final kicker for an El Nino remains to be seen, but at the very least, it should help to warm equatorial waters as easterly winds, which upwell the water, are replaced by calmer westerly winds.

The MJO isn't forecast to move appreciably through late June, meaning the West Pacific may see a few storms out of this. We'll see.

Past late June, the CFS has been forecasting the MJO to eject into the West Hemisphere, which should act as a jumpstarter for several storms in the East Pacific. Perhaps our first Atlantic storm if we haven't seen one by then.




I was wondering if that MJO would work its way to the Atlantic. As for El Nino, the SOI is now +10.1.
Hi guys, still in Chicago and will fly back to Orlando Monday night. Here is an update to my blog if anyone is interested. May not be on as much until later next week as been very busy at work. July I go to New Orleans for a week.

Have a great night from cold Chicago right now.

Link
Quoting 760. StormTrackerScott:

Hi guys, still in Chicago and will fly back to Orlando Monday night. Here is an update to my blog if anyone is interested. May not be on as much until later next week as been very busy at work. July I go to New Orleans for a week.

Have a great night from cold Chicago right now.

Link
Dammit, if you were just a month earlier, we could meet up. I'm going next week. Life sucks.
Quoting 761. KoritheMan:


Dammit, if you were just a month earlier, we could meet up. I'm going next week. Life sucks.



57 here in Orland Park and it's coming with a brisk breeze.
Quoting 714. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not buying any forecast of a storm exiting the Caribbean. Early season development is heavily dependent on a coherent MJO signal, and the MJO is forecast to amplify and slowly progress across only the West and Central Pacific through the end of the month. GFS seems to be suffering from some sort of convective feedback issue--it has developed a storm either in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico for almost every run for the past 2 weeks. And the timeframe for development has hardly changed.
Come on At least it predict 90L :p not in terms of track but show it down there.
Quoting 718. FOREX:

POLL: Where will the 00Z GFS show landfall?
A. Texas
B. Tampa
C. Florida Panhandle
D. Miami
E. All of the above


LOL!! This actually made me laugh. Definitely going with E.

Btw, I'm alive, if anyone was bored enough to ponder that.
Quoting 764. Thrawst:



LOL!! This actually made me laugh. Definitely going with E.

Btw, I'm alive, if anyone was bored enough to ponder that.


I wasn't. But I will sleep soundly knowing you are alive. :)
00Z GFS starting to come out
Quotiong Baha:



Lots of moisture working its way up to TX. Good, good, good.
Quoting 767. redwagon:

Quotiong Baha:



Lots of moisture working its way up to TX. Good, good, good.


My reaction when there's a tropical cyclone threat where I can reach it. :)

Glad you're getting your rain, btw.
Quoting 751. EstherD:


It's there... in the "Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters" table in the "Near Earth Asteroids" section:
   2014 HQ124     Jun 8     3.3 LD     160 m

The size estimate, 160m == 525ft, is at the low end of the numbers being tossed around by the media. But that could be because: 1) The media is exaggerating. 2) JPL/NASA is being conservative. 3) The size estimate has been refined downwards due to new observations at closest encounter. 4) Some combination of the previous 3 items.


Has the Beast flown past us yet?
Quoting 768. KoritheMan:



My reaction when there's a tropical cyclone threat where I can reach it. :)

Glad you're getting your rain, btw.


Thank you very much, Sir. We have a lot of aquifers and lakes to refill. And since you're only a hop skip over,
should we get a TX landfall, that'd be the one you'd want to experience. Big enough coastline to pick and choose your point for observation.
Quoting 756. EstherD:


It appears to be because the moon phase table calculation thinks the date is "Jun 17" [!] Waning Gibbous does appear to be correct for said date, as erroneous as that date may be given that today is Jun 8. However, other astronomical stuff seems to be OK... just the moon phase table appears to be wrong.

Interestingly, this problem appears only on the new site. Classic site says: "Waxing Gibbous, 81% of the Moon is Illuminated", which appears to be correct.
Quoting 769. redwagon:



Has the Beast flown past us yet?

Yes. 2014 HQ124 is "the Beast". Except it has apparently turned out not to be quite as beastly as originally reported... only ~500ft instead of ~1000ft.
Quoting 770. redwagon:



Thank you very much, Sir. We have a lot of aquifers and lakes to refill. And since you're only a hop skip over,
should we get a TX landfall, that'd be the one you'd want to experience. Big enough coastline to pick and choose your point for observation.


Texas to Alabama is actually a very feasible target zone for me if I can't have one in Louisiana. Anything west of Galveston is a bit far, though. I have work Thursday through Sunday.
Quoting 764. Thrawst:



LOL!! This actually made me laugh. Definitely going with E.

Btw, I'm alive, if anyone was bored enough to ponder that.


Is this a joke? Cause how about A. Nothing will form in the next 7-10 days or longer.


Best chance will be at the end of June from a tropical wave OR a system breaks off a front and forms in the northern GOM or north of the Bahamas.
Quoting 767. redwagon:

Quotiong Baha:



Lots of moisture working its way up to TX. Good, good, good.


Hey Texas, don't bogart that moisture. Pass it thisaway.
Quoting 774. scottsvb:



Is this a joke? Cause how about A. Nothing will form in the next 7-10 days or longer.


Best chance will be at the end of June from a tropical wave OR a system breaks off a front and forms in the northern GOM or north of the Bahamas.


I think he was being facetious if I know Thrawst >.>
The GFS has a Hurricane just west of the Florida Keys on June the 20th. Take it with a grain of salt. The GFS has had the same storm system making landfall somewhere along the Florida West Coast on several different days for the first three weeks of June. In a few days it will show the same Hurricane hitting Florida around the forth of July. Just in time for the fire works. Like I've always said, these computer models can drive a sane man to drink. "Now where did I put that bottle of Johnny Walker Red"? "Some Early Times would taste good about now".
Quoting 776. KoritheMan:



I think he was being facetious if I know Thrawst >.>


Bingo.

And glad to know you will sleep in peace. That'll make me sleep in peace too.
Quoting 773. KoritheMan:



Texas to Alabama is actually a very feasible target zone for me if I can't have one in Louisiana. Anything west of Galveston is a bit far, though.


You know, say we get a TX landfall from A,B,C or D (most common). You could take a week off and get on a cruise liner directly in the path of the storm, observe it from the Gulf waters, then hightail it back to the forecasted landfall point in a strong hotel.
Quoting 778. Thrawst:



Bingo.

And glad to know you will sleep in peace. That'll make me sleep in peace too.


Mutual harmony and all. You know. ;)
Quoting 764. Thrawst:



LOL!! This actually made me laugh. Definitely going with E.

Btw, I'm alive, if anyone was bored enough to ponder that.


Yay! How was the trip?
im still waiting for my California hurricane
Lol. Maine????
Canada maybe? lol GFS is off my model...
Quoting 777. HurriHistory:

The GFS has a Hurricane just west of the Florida Keys on June the 20th. Take it with a grain of salt. The GFS has had the same storm system making landfall somewhere along the Florida West Coast on several different days for the first three weeks of June. In a few days it will show the same Hurricane hitting Florida around the forth of July. Just in time for the fire works. Like I've always said, these computer models can drive a sane man to drink. "Now where did I put that bottle of Johnny Walker Red"? "Some Early Times would taste good about now".


I'd assume the GFS is suffering from convective feedback because of the positive MJO signal forecast to pivot eastward. Could also be something to do with the ongoing tropical wave train.
Quoting 785. KoritheMan:



I'd assume the GFS is suffering from convective feedback because of the positive MJO signal forecast to pivot eastward. Could also something to do with the ongoing tropical wave train.
IF it is suffering from convective feedback it's been doing it for the last three weeks. I think the GFS needs some Obama Care.
Quoting 779. redwagon:



You know, say we get a TX landfall from A,B,C or D (most common). You could take a week off and get on a cruise liner directly in the path of the storm, observe it from the Gulf waters, then hightail it back to the forecasted landfall point in a strong hotel.


Hurricanes are capricious. Not every storm has an unbreakable consensus aimed toward a specific location week in advance like Gustav did. It'd be an extremely risky gamble to request off. Plus... we require a minimum of three weeks prior to random arbitrary date in order to request off for that date.

I do have Monday through Wednesday off though. Technically supposed to be school time, but I'd make an exception for a hurricane. Problem is getting back to work on time. Bleh. I'm a bad boy. Maybe I should just skip a day, too? :)
Quoting 779. redwagon:



You know, say we get a TX landfall from A,B,C or D (most common). You could take a week off and get on a cruise liner directly in the path of the storm, observe it from the Gulf waters, then hightail it back to the forecasted landfall point in a strong hotel.


What cruise ship would put itself in the way of a hurricane?
Quoting 783. AtHomeInTX:

Lol. Maine????

Hey! We don't want 'em up here in New England, either. Irene made a mess of Vermont. Rather not see that again in my remaining lifetime.
So...Colorado...havin' fun with all those tornadoes? 'Cause it's been pretty boring over here (hydrus is gonna kill me).

Quoting 775. nonblanche:



Hey Texas, don't bogart that moisture. Pass it thisaway.


Which way is thisaway for you?
Quoting 788. Astrometeor:



What cruise ship would put itself in the way of a hurricane?


My cruise ship. All passengers would be required to be ardently kamikaze.
793. xcool
gfs poof need help asp


GFS pls
Quoting EstherD:

Hey! We don't want 'em up here in New England, either. Irene made a mess of Vermont. Rather not see that again in my remaining lifetime.


Ah, sorry. Don't mean to alarm anyone. Chances are that won't happen. The GFS doesn't actually show a storm landfalling on the east coast as far up as my model showed. And it was very long range. 300+ hrs. So that makes it unlikely. Sent it to me last model run.
Quoting 790. Astrometeor:

So...Colorado...havin' fun with all those tornadoes? 'Cause it's been pretty boring over here (hydrus is gonna kill me).




Landspout/rope outbreak. Still wish I was there... I only saw three tornadoes on my two week trip. All on May 26th...
Ok 00Z GFS moved up in time frame and now in long range it shows a decent TS make landfall in Florida and then moves up the US E coast and that falls in line with the other runs before 18Z 8 June
Quoting 797. wunderkidcayman:

Ok 00Z GFS moved up in time frame and now in long range it shows a decent TS make landfall in Florida and then moves up the US E coast and that falls in line with the other runs before 18Z 8 June


it doesnt even look realistic at all after Florida
Quoting 791. redwagon:



Which way is thisaway for you?

Northern Nevada, Churchill County.
Always at the end of the run, see the issue there? Nothing in the near term. Every run pushes it back farther and farther. I guess eventually it may be right. Having troubles dealing with things in the long term seems to me.
Quoting 797. wunderkidcayman:

Ok 00Z GFS moved up in time frame and now in long range it shows a decent TS make landfall in Florida and then moves up the US E coast and that falls in line with the other runs before 18Z 8 June


GFS Shows nothing in the next 6-7 days
As I learned the hard way, I'm not believing anything by the GFS unless it is within 3-5 days. GFS is producing too many phantom storms. The FIM is on some kind of steroids, creating ridiculous hurricanes that never form.

I got showed up pretty good by y'all realistic casters.
Quoting 785. KoritheMan:



I'd assume the GFS is suffering from convective feedback because of the positive MJO signal forecast to pivot eastward. Could also be something to do with the ongoing tropical wave train.
Goodnight Kori, if that is the case development is a possibility. I don't think that strong like the GFS is showing, probably a TS like Arlene or Cindy of 2005.
Quoting 802. StPetersburgFL:

As I learned the hard way, I'm not believing anything by the GFS unless it is within 3-5 days. GFS is producing too many phantom storms. The FIM is on some kind of steroids, creating ridiculous hurricanes that never form.

I got showed up pretty good by y'all realistic casters.


It's alright.

Just gotta remember that what them models say are just suggestions as to what future conditions could be like, and they should never be taken as gospel. That, and meteorology generally stinks beyond 5 days, no matter who you are.
Quoting 804. Astrometeor:



It's alright.

Just gotta remember that what them models say are just suggestions as to what future conditions could be like, and they should never be taken as gospel. That, and meteorology generally stinks beyond 5 days, no matter who you are.
When it comes to development I agree anything more than 5 days out is guesswork. Now when a system has formed a 5-7 day forecast cone of uncertainty has proven to be fairly accurate as we have become more technologically advanced and the error is reduced which as a result the cone has allowed the cone to be much smaller. Unless of course your TS Debby. :P
Dern TV meteorologist for the Fox station had to open her mouth about Nashville being under a SLIGHT risk of severe weather after the finale of Cosmos ended. Nashville is now no longer under that SLIGHT risk. Thanks a lot, lady. -____-



Good night, all.
Quoting 804. Astrometeor:



It's alright.

Just gotta remember that what them models say are just suggestions as to what future conditions could be like, and they should never be taken as gospel. That, and meteorology generally stinks beyond 5 days, no matter who you are.


Thank you! Yes weather forecasting can be tough at times.
Maybe you could do something more entertaining next time besides eating crow. That's kind of old hat around here. :)
Quoting 800. ProgressivePulse:

Always at the end of the run, see the issue there? Nothing in the near term. Every run pushes it back farther and farther. I guess eventually it may be right. Having troubles dealing with things in the long term seems to me.


It created a million ghost storms last year.

If it was on the mark with every one of its modeled developments, we'd experience a 2005 season every season.

That could be good or bad depending on your perspective I suppose.


Good morning. You rarely see the pink color in warning forecasts from Estofex (European Storm Forecast Experiment). Yesterday already strong thunderstorms with high rates of lightning hit western Europe from Paris to Benelux and northwestern Germany. Not sure when my place in the mid of Germany may get these storm which will end our little heatwave step by step (this evening or - more probably - tomorrow).

Here is what Estofex says for today:

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

... France towards BENELUX and NW Germany ...

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate. ...








End of a BBQ in Helmstedt (Lower Saxony) yesterday, lol.

Have a nice Monday!
BTW pics and reports from Severe Weather in Europe see here on this public site:
https://www.facebook.com/severeweatherEU


Current radar. Source.

Quoting 753. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFS, among other models, were bullish with the storm yesterday, with most making it a Category 2 hurricane by day 5. Today, they're all much more reserved, with a peak below hurricane intensity. I have doubts about this though--especially with a strong kelvin wave traversing the Pacific. We've seen time and time again that these waves can initiate rapid intensification, with some of the better examples including this year's Hurricane Amanda and last year's Hurricane Raymond.

To answer your Wiki question, several people update Wikipedia. It'd depend on what page/part of the page you were specifically referring to.
I was referring to the omission of information about Hurricane Ike making a strike on Inagua Island in the Southeast Bahamas on 7 September 2008. The storm passed right over there and there was extensive damage as a result. I posted about it earlier in the blog.

Quoting 767. redwagon:

Quotiong Baha:

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/image7. jpg"

Lots of moisture working its way up to TX. Good, good, good.
Good to hear.... now if it can all happen without nasty tornadoes....

Quoting 782. nwobilderburg:

im still waiting for my California hurricane
Good luck with that....
Quoting 794. nwobilderburg:



GFS pls
This is the scenario it's been showing most consistently over the last week or so. IF something does happen, up over Cuba and across S FL would be a logical track given climatological performance.

I've just read some temperature records were broken in Germany yesterday. Here is a snippet from the report of DWD, our national weather service, translated by google:

In fact, yesterday temperature records fell like dominoes.
Outstanding was the beginning of June (decade from 01 to 10) highest
ever in Germany measured temperature. 35.6 degrees it was in
Waghaeusel, located between Mannheim and Karlsruhe. The old record
35.5 degrees from 03.06.1947 in Frankfurt is at least 67 years
back.


35,6C = 96,08F



New Mesoscale Discussion from Estofex
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48
Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 C), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. ...



Very bad cell with extreme lightning entering the Netherlands now. And another bad guy developing in the area southwest of Cologne.
Live lightning map.

I'm out. Enjoy a nice day, folks!
so gfs is looking sw fl. as a td or weak storm two wks from today. okay
gfs..."out to lunch"? wonder if gw's use the same kind of models to forecast their warming. lets use the gfs to forecast ocean water levels! just teasing. like general motors it machinery problems no doubt
816. FOREX
006Z GFS game of spin the wheel. And this run, the wheel has landed on a Texas landfall.
ok the 6Z GFS has a low down in the carribean sunday the 15th..thats only 6 days and in that 7day window...lets just watch and see IF a low IS down there sunday....now IF there is one there...the gfs pegged it all along and..florida gets whatever it becomes...in June we always watch that area huh...afterall it is the season now.
Quoting 816. FOREX:

006Z GFS game of spin the wheel. And this run, the wheel has landed on a Texas landfall.
that may indeed change..florida gets it first
819. FOREX
Quoting 817. LargoFl:

ok the 6Z GFS has a low down in the carribean sunday the 15th..thats only 6 days and in that 7day window...lets just watch and see IF a low IS down there sunday....now IF there is one there...the gfs pegged it all along and..florida gets whatever it becomes...in June we always watch that area huh...afterall it is the season now.


Hi Largo, isn't it showing a Texas landfall this run?
000
FXUS62 KTBW 090728
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EDT MON JUN 9 2014

...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN GA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSED LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. MODELS THIS MORNING SHOW A VORT LOBE
LINGERING OVER THE PENINSULA TODAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AND HIGHEST POPS (50 PERCENT) SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW (ALBEIT LIGHT) PUSHING THE
CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

COOL TEMPERATURE ALOFT (-9C) COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL ENERGY
AND THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE
MAIN HAZARDS. THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO FAVOR SLOW MOVING
STORMS WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
From last week for this past weekend:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I would watch for Arthur to form then head NE toward FL then N and then NW across GA as a upper trough closes off in the Central Gulf.

Here's the upper trough closing off on the 12Z GFS run.





Well, that sure didnt pan out lol. So much for that! Unfortunately putting too much faith in the GFS is bad news if you are trying to predict the future. Here have some crow :o)

Pretty average week this week for CFL though, 91 with a chance of rain every day. The humidity is killer this time of year.

Quoting LargoFl:
that may indeed change..florida gets it first


Hey Largo! It seems the GFS has been wrong on every run so far this year. Hopefully that model will get better since it hasnt verified anything yet, and it creates ghost storms that never come to life. I think we will see a system in June though but who knows where it will form or go yet. FL is obviously always an option lol.
Quoting 821. StormWx:

From last week for this past weekend:


Well, that sure didnt pan out lol. So much for that! Unfortunately putting too much faith in the GFS is bad news if you are trying to predict the future. Here have some crow :o)

Pretty average week this week for CFL though, 91 with a chance of rain every day. The humidity is killer this time of year.


Somehow you have not been banned for repeatedly spamming the blog with this nonsense...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
825. beell

06/09 00Z 8-10 Day 500 mb mean

GFS continues with an area of lower pressure stretching across the western Caribbean/southeastern GOM. And the convective feed back issues that come with it. Like they say, "all model output is useful-even if it's wrong". Just deal with it, lol.

The ECMWF holds the ridge ADDED:(but just barely). If pressures were lower, we'd probably have a disturbance.
Good Morning.  The pending storm in the E-Pac consolidated overnight and is looking better this morning in terms of development.  It looked like this on Friday, elongated over the weekend, and has consolidated over the past 18 hours with convection firing more uniformly near the center of the low.  Might have a tropical depression within the next 48 hours per the latest NHC discussion:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg
Here is the current water vapor shot for 94E.  Dry air to the west was a potential issue but it is consolidating within a very nice moisture pouch.  Dry air should not be an issue in the short term if sheer continues to drop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/94E/imagery/wv0-lalo.gif
Finally, here is the current CIMSS chart for the E-Pac.  Looks like 94E has developed an anti-cyclone in the upper environment with low sheer; there should be no impediment to depression status as early as later this evening or sometime tomorrow at this rate:


Quoting 821. StormWx:

From last week for this past weekend:


Well, that sure didnt pan out lol. So much for that! Unfortunately putting too much faith in the GFS is bad news if you are trying to predict the future. Here have some crow :o)

Pretty average week this week for CFL though, 91 with a chance of rain every day. The humidity is killer this time of year.




Why don't you just ask Scott out already? The worst he could say is "No".
Still looks warm and wet for much of the SE next week too.


India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 9 2014
============================

A Low Pressure Area lies over east central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. It would concentrate into a depression over the same region during the next 24 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
================================

There is a moderate chance of a depression to form in the Arabian Sea in the next 24 hours
I think you can officially call it the wet season now?
Quoting Naga5000:


Why don't you just ask Scott out already? The worst he could say is "No".


Sorry, i'm married. Why dont you keep it weather related, at least i do. I simply pointed out his forecast didnt pan out, as usual.
Letter from Serbia: we are drowning in a flood of censorship

Serbia has been battered by two storms: first there were mass floods; then a wave of terrifying Internet censorship, which has included denial-of-service attacks, arrests over Facebook discussions of the flood casualties, and ISPs mysteriously shuttering websites critical of the government. We’re proud to present an open letter from BlogOpen-BlogClosed, announcing a netcast strategy conference on Tuesday, June 10 at 1PM CET.

Link
836. beell
The 3 and 3.4 nino regions are on the rise again. Looks serious this time :o)



Quoting 822. StormWx:



Hey Largo! It seems the GFS has been wrong on every run so far this year. Hopefully that model will get better since it hasnt verified anything yet, and it creates ghost storms that never come to life. I think we will see a system in June though but who knows where it will form or go yet. FL is obviously always an option lol.
well not wrong so much, we must remember it says what the current data being fed into it..but the weather changes constantly and the data being fed into it what evey 7-8 hours has to change also...which is why we really pay attention to the models 2-3 days out..after that its just data and no storm present....somehow the data is telling it..something WILL form,just when keeps getting pushed back...for me, i just dont like the constant hook into florida it presents..yeah sometimes it goes to LA/Texas but most runs put into florida...we'll see what happens...it is june...and June is trouble time for florida with these storms.
I'm not sure how well this will show up, but several areas received 2-3" of rain yesterday across Southeast, central and Southcentral Fl.
Coastal area of the Westcoast missed out.
Quoting StormWx:


Sorry, i'm married. Why dont you keep it weather related, at least i do. I simply pointed out his forecast didnt pan out, as usual.



Why not put Scott on the ignore list am for one getting sick of on the drama you guys do ever day on the blog I find it odd the the mods are even alloweing this drama give it a freaking rest all ready am sure a lot of other blogger are getting sick of the drama has well
Quoting 840. LargoFl:

well not wrong so much, we must remember it says what the current data being fed into it..but the weather changes constantly and the data being fed into it what evey 7-8 hours has to change also...which is why we really pay attention to the models 2-3 days out..after that its just data and no storm present....somehow the data is telling it..something WILL form,just when keeps getting pushed back...for me, i just dont like the constant hook into florida it presents..yeah sometimes it goes to LA/Texas but most runs put into florida...we'll see what happens...it is june...and June is trouble time for florida with these storms.

I don't know. I think that if/when one of these models gets something correct after 120 hours, it will be more of a blind squirrel finding a nut situation than actual science. These things are as bad as the Accuweather 30-day forecasts and should be labeled "For Entertainment Purposes Only".
Massive line of storms will setup this afternoon.
The GFS can go to hell.It's been on the train of B.S now with stops at clownsville,downrightwrong,and un-dependable for the past month.I'm not believing anything that model says until we're three days out.It's been showing that same storm now in what seems forever.

Anyway I woke up to a inch of rain in my gauge and muggy conditions.More rain/thunderstorms expected today.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The GFS can go to hell.It's been on the train of B.S now with stops at clownsville,downrightwrong,and un-dependable for the past month.I'm not believing anything that model says until we're three days out.It's been showing that same storm now in what seems forever.

Anyway I woke up to a inch of rain in my gauge and muggy conditions.More rain/thunderstorms expected today.


I agree with ya. The afternoon t-storms in FL can dump 1-2" on you but its pretty scattered as you can see the totals yesterday.
Pretty big change in Atlantic SST Anomalies in one week:

This Week





Last Week

Quoting 833. StormWx:


Sorry, i'm married. Why dont you keep it weather related, at least i do. I simply pointed out his forecast didnt pan out, as usual.


I thought the GFS was supposed to show improvement on tropical system predictions.
The GFS is a very good model, but it definitely has major issues with storm genesis at several days out during the early season (as we've witnessed for the past 3-4 weeks).

But once a low has formed, the GFS has a very good track record.
Quoting 842. Tazmanian:




Why not put Scott on the ignore list am for one getting sick of on the drama you guys do ever day on the blog I find it odd the the mods are even alloweing this drama give it a freaking rest all ready am sure a lot of other blogger are getting sick of the drama has well


because then he would have no one to talk about

I will fix it for good soon and I don't mean for two or three days I mean like forever
Tampa area today :o)

Quoting 850. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



because then he would have no one to talk about

I will fix it for good soon and I don't mean for two or three days I mean like forever



I like the sould of that
853. MahFL
Quoting 844. Sfloridacat5:

Massive line of storms will setup this afternoon...

The massive line already exits.
Quoting 850. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



because then he would have no one to talk about

I will fix it for good soon and I don't mean for two or three days I mean like forever


Drama aside, as a novice in this arena I learn a lot from the material that each of them put out. I hope it does not come to a lifetime ban.
Quoting 852. Tazmanian:




I like the sould of that
Good morning Taz! You're up early. How's the weather in Utah this morning?
The Gulf is warming up nicely.

well...cpc enso weekly update.....not much has changed...they did give the running temp anomaly from march through may.....i/e oni value..... -0.20 .....this weeks 3.4 anomaly value is once again at 0.5....at this rate it seems pretty much impossible for el nino to be declared before august.....

what i find interesting is last winter...before we came into the spring barrier time frame...models had august about a 40 percent chance and september we finally were above 50 percent in our chances for el nino to be claimed.....looks like those long range models might be right
weekly enso update can be found here
Quoting 855. Llamaluvr:

Good morning Taz! You're up early. How's the weather in Utah this morning?


Reported. I don't live in UT
Quoting ricderr:
weekly enso update can be found here


Thanks Ric, we are on our way to an El Nino most likely now. How strong it gets is still up in the air.
Quoting 854. LongIslandBeaches:



Drama aside, as a novice in this arena I learn a lot from the material that each of them put out. I hope it does not come to a lifetime ban.
I hope so as well they just got to move along from it and not use it to disturb the site with it
its simple I prefer if they stay
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON JUN 9 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure system located about 150 miles south-southwest of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is showing signs of organization this morning.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development, and this system will likely become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Quoting 859. Tazmanian:



Reported. I don't live in UT
be nice taz

Quoting 859. Tazmanian:



Reported. I don't live in UT
I wasn't interested in where you live. I just wanted to know about the weather in Utah.
earth winds

you can go to the link above and see that the tradewinds ion the western pacific have just about turned and now seem about to blow west....and although in the central to western pacific they are still blowing to the west...they are not near as strong as they were this time last week...maybe the mjo pulse doc has talked about above is trying to come into play
Hazy shade of summer this morning. Rain really kept the everglades fire smoke down low. Causing road closures, delays at the port. Not to mention it was hard to breathe this morning...

Thanks Ric, we are on our way to an El Nino most likely now. How strong it gets is still up in the air.

my suggestions....trust the experts
Quoting 850. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



because then he would have no one to talk about

I will fix it for good soon and I don't mean for two or three days I mean like forever


Is Wunderground at some point considering IP bans for the more 'pernicious' trolls under multiple pseudonyms that keep popping up in this forum and Dr. Roods?
Hazy shade of summer this morning. Rain really kept the everglades fire smoke down low. Causing road closures, delays at the port. Not to mention it was hard to breathe this morning...


are they burning cane or is it an uncontrolled fire?
Quoting 870. ricderr:

Hazy shade of summer this morning. Rain really kept the everglades fire smoke down low. Causing road closures, delays at the port. Not to mention it was hard to breathe this morning...


are they burning cane or is it an uncontrolled fire?


Brush fire started by lightning in broward. 5% contained the last time I checked. 2500 burned.

On edit: reopened US27 but they caution it could close again...
872. JRRP
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Keeper, wu mail
Quoting 826. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning.  The pending storm in the E-Pac consolidated overnight and is looking better this morning in terms of development.  It looked like this on Friday, elongated over the weekend, and has consolidated over the past 18 hours with convection firing more uniformly near the center of the low.  Might have a tropical depression within the next 48 hours per the latest NHC discussion:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/epac/rb-l.jpg



Got 1.5" of rain last night from the outer fringes of this here in P. Escondido. Sea surface is glassy with a Southwest ground swell of 1.5 - 2 mtrs which was a change from yesterday's nasty wind chop from the southeast. Storm must be consolidating its winds towards the center. Looks like the coast of SW Mex is going to get some weather from this thing after all before it moves out.