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El Niño is Officially Over—and La Niña is Likely On the Way

By: Bob Henson 5:27 PM GMT on June 09, 2016

The El Niño event of 2015-16 is now history, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which certified the demise in an advisory on Thursday. It wasn’t exactly a tough call: the warm equatorial waters over the eastern tropical Pacific that have signaled El Niño’s presence for more than a year are pretty much gone. El Niño events are defined mainly by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that are at least 0.5°C above average across the benchmark Niño3.4 region, which straddles the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. CPC also considers whether the atmosphere and ocean are acting in sync to support El Niño conditions (for example, trade winds over the tropical Pacific typically weaken as El Niño sets in). In the months since El Niño reached its peak intensity in November 2015, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have steadily dropped across the Niño3.4 region, and other measures of El Niño strength have waned as well. Last week’s Niño3.4 SST anomaly (departure from average) dipped to -0.2°C, its lowest value since mid-March 2014. Below the surface of the tropical equatorial Pacific, cool anomalies now predominate, in part because of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave--an eastward-moving impulse that’s brought cooler water toward the surface along its path. Just as a downwelling Kelvin wave can help stimulate El Niño’s formation, upwelling Kelvin waves often feed into the development of La Niña, as one seems to be doing right now.


Figure 1. Anomalies (departure from average) in ocean temperature (degrees C) below the equatorial Pacific. The widespread blue values are consistent with the demise of El Niño and the expected development of La Niña. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


Figure 2. Weekly anomalies (departure from average) in sea surface temperature (SST, in degrees C) across the “Niño regions” of the eastern and central tropical Pacific (see map at top of image). SSTs in the Niño3.4 region (third panel up from bottom) are at least 0.5°C above average during El Niño and at least 0.5°C below average during La Niña. NOAA employs a separate SST analysis across overlapping three-month intervals when assessing the total duration of an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.


An El Niño event becomes official for the record books once El Niño conditions have been in place for at least five overlapping three-month periods. By this definition, the most recent El Niño began in February-April-May 2015 and will most likely end in April-May-June 2016. Many El Niño events last just one year. This one would have been a rare two-year episode, extending back to late autumn 2014, were it not for a single three-month period (Jan-Mar 2015) that fell just below the El Niño threshold in the ocean dataset that NOAA uses (ERSSTv4).

A global footprint
Like the previous “super” El Niño events of 1982-83 and 1997-98‚ which are the only comparably strong events in the last 66 years of NOAA records, El Niño 2015-16 was a high-impact phenomenon. Among the repercussions linked to it:

--Devastating drought, fire, and air pollution in Indonesia and neighboring countries in fall 2015, which caused many thousands of people to fall ill and cost Indonesia more than $16 billion

--The wettest month on record across Texas and Oklahoma (May 2015), with subsequent rounds of torrential rain and major flooding over parts of the south-central U.S. in late 2015 and early 2016

--South Africa’s most expensive natural disaster on record, a severe drought culminating in the summer of 2015-16 that hammered crops and water supplies

--An intense heat wave in spring 2016 across Southeast Asia, with more than half of the major weather stations in Thailand setting all-time record highs

--Record-warm upper-ocean temperatures that produced the third global coral bleaching event on record and caused massive damage to the Great Barrier Reef, where more than 20% of the entire reef’s coral may have been killed.


Figure 3. Left: Coral researcher Kim Cobb (@coralsncaves, Georgia Institute of Technology) placing a conductivity-temperature-depth sensor on a healthy reef at Kirimati Island in the Southwest Pacific several years ago. Right: The same reef as of late April 2016, showing a large number of dead and dying coral colonies as a result of prolonged above-average water temperatures. Learn more about Cobb’s research and the devastation to coral reefs this year at this ENSO Blog entry (May 27, 2016). Image credits: Pamela Grothe (left), Kim Cobb (right).


One place where El Niño failed to behave as expected was Southern California, where forecasts and historical analogs suggested that heavier-than-usual rains were quite likely after four years of punishing drought. Instead, the West Coast rains were shunted hundreds of miles north of where they usually materialize during strong El Niño events. Seattle ended up with its wettest winter on record--a stupendous 45.51” of rain from October 1 through June 7--while Los Angeles saw only 6.88”, just 47% of its long-term average for that same period. Although the absence of El Niño rains was a big blow to Southern California, the unusual outcome together with ample data collected by a rapid-response NOAA field project in the Pacific may help spur some fascinating and important research.


Figure 4. Percent of average precipitation for the period from October 1, 2015, through June 7, 2016, based on provisional data. Most of the rainfall in a West Coast water year (October 1 - September 30) has fallen by June. Image credit: Western Regional Climate Center.

La Niña into 2018? It’s quite possible
There is high confidence (though not ironclad certainty) that El Niño will be quickly replaced later this year by La Niña. Even though the interplay between ocean and atmosphere that leads to El Niño is not fully understood, the mechanics of its downfall are more clear-cut, as explained nicely in a NOAA blog post last January. In a nutshell, El Niño’s inclination to push both wind and water eastward across the tropical Pacific can trigger oceanic Rossby waves. These huge, shallow, slow-moving impulses on either side of the equator can move west, bounce off the west end of the Pacific basin, and return to stimulate a cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific, often putting an end to El Niño and sometimes ushering in La Niña. (This process is in addition to the oceanic Kelvin waves noted above, with various types of interrelationships adding to the complexity.) On top of conceptual understanding, we know from past experience that most strong El Niño events tend to be followed rather promptly by at least a year of La Niña conditions. Moreover, seasonal climate models that include oceanic conditions agree strongly on the development of La Niña later this year. With all this in mind, the June outlook from forecasters at NOAA and the International Research Center for Climate and Society (IRI), released on Thursday, gives La Niña a 70-75% chance of being in place by late summer and continuing into at least early 2017.


Figure 5. The early-June outlook issued by forecasters at the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Center for Climate and Society. Image credit: IRI/CPC.


Because many La Niña events last two or three years, there is already a slightly enhanced probability of La Niña in 2017-18, if history is any guide. A 2014 modeling study by Pedro DiNezio (@txgaucho, now at the University of Texas) and Clara Deser (National Center for Atmospheric Research) used a highly sophisticated global climate model (CCSM4) to analyze 252 La Niña events that appeared in 1300 years of simulated climate. The study found that about a third of the first-year La Niña events returned or persisted for a second year, but with marked variations from century to century. The historical record shows that second-year La Niñas have been even more frequent in the last 150 years than in the 1300-year simulation. WU member Eric Webb (@webberweather, North Carolina State University) has examined El Niño and La Niña events going back to 1865 using a blend of multiple datasets from several agencies. From the 23 “first-year” La Niña events in Webb’s database (focusing on the core winter period of December through February, or DJF), 11 of those events featured at least one more subsequent year of La Niña. Similarly, in the official NOAA database going back to 1950, exactly half of the 12 first-year La Niña winters were followed by a second year of La Niña. (NOAA’s Emily Becker digs further into the post-1950 statistics in a recent blog post.)

Considering this climatology, if we assume that La Niña materializes in 2016-17 as expected, the historical odds are about even that 2017-18 would also be a La Niña winter (potentially with a short neutral break in between). I wouldn’t bet the farm on this outcome, though--especially since the 75% odds of getting a La Niña this coming autumn, while quite high, are not a guarantee! “Some folks are pointing out that the subsurface cooling is not very strong relative to some past events,” says Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA/CPC), “so we still have to see if it is enough (and that the atmosphere couples to it, because right now there is no such coupling).” The next step toward making an actual La Niña forecast for 2017-18 would be to get past the early-2017 “spring predictability barrier”, when ongoing El Niño and La Niña events tend to weaken and climate model guidance become less robust.

What shoaling can tell us
Here’s one promising research angle that may help: The DiNezio-Deser study cited above found that the depth of the thermocline (the oceanic boundary that separates warmer surface waters from cooler subsurface waters) six months before the onset of La Niña was correlated with SSTs a year and a half later. When the thermocline shoals more strongly (becomes shallower) after El Niño, then there is a greater chance of a subsequent multi-year La Niña. According to DiNezio and Deser, this process could provide an 18-month lead time for predicting whether La Niña conditions might return a second year. In general, the thermocline shoals much more strongly after a strong El Niño event, which raises the odds that the subsequent La Niña will last more than a year. After the “super” El Niño of 1997-98, the thermocline rose by more than 40 meters (130 feet), and the subsequent La Niña lasted for three years. The El Niño of 2015-16 was just as strong as in 1997-98, but as of late May 2016, the thermocline had shoaled by no more than 20 meters (65 feet). “This makes the prediction of the return of La Nina for an additional year more challenging,” said DiNezio in an email. “The duration of the upcoming La Nina is not set in stone and will be difficult to predict. I like this event because it makes the prediction so much more challenging!”

Bob Henson

El Niño La Niña

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

on pair how fast was this strong EL Nino weaking with the 1997 1998 strong EL Nino ?
Wow... Looking for the typical La Nina patterns to emerge then.
With this likely multiple year La-Nina coming, will we likely see a return to busy severe weather season in 2017 and more active hurricane seasons? Will that have any decline affect on the epic cold pool in the N. Atlantic?
Thanks for the update...
Significant weather advisory for 45 to 55 mph winds and the
development of funnel clouds for northeastern Broward and
southeastern Palm Beach counties until 200 PM EDT...

* at 107 PM EDT... National Weather Service meteorologists detected a
line of strong thunderstorms with rotation... capable of producing a
funnel cloud along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of
Wellington to Loxahatchee NWR to Deerfield Beach... and moving
northeast at 25 mph.

* In addition... gusty winds from 45 to 55 mph are possible. These
winds can down small tree limbs and branches... and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

* Locations impacted include...
Fort Lauderdale... West Palm Beach... Pompano Beach... Boca Raton...
Deerfield Beach... Boynton Beach... Delray Beach... Wellington...
Palm Beach Gardens... Lake Worth... Riviera Beach...
Lighthouse Point... Palm Beach... Highland Beach... Ocean Ridge...
Coconut Creek... Oakland Park... Greenacres...
Royal Palm Beach and Parkland.
Thanks Bob.
Quoting 270. Neapolitan:

Really? It can't be because she's got a degree in meteorology from FSU (where she graduated cum laude), as well as a degree from the University of Florida? It can't be because she has years of television broadcasting experience? It can't be because she was president of the North Florida chapter of the AMS?

It's silly, demeaning, and more than a little backwards to think that attractive people can become successful only because they're attractive.


But she certainly did not get a degree in hydrology. Nor did she demonstrate any familiarity with Florida water management, the environmental issues related to it, or the fact that heavy rains this winter/early Spring filled Lake O to the brim and that the Army Corps of Engineers/SFWMD have been dumping a ton of water - pretty much anywhere they can - to reduce the level of Lake O for the anticipated "rainy" season.

I understand they have to "blah. blah. blah" to fill air time . . .

As a national (and respected) meteorologist - I would expect that she would have been at least familiar with the issue and not say something so blatantly incorrect. Or simply not say it at all.

in case you have not followed (from the previous blog) here is what we are commenting upon. The blatantly incorrect statement made by Stephanie Abrams:

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Edit: Combined with the fact that she got her degrees from two Florida colleges, well she should be familiar with the topic . . .
Thank You Mr. Henson. An interesting sub-set of the issues raised by a La Nina regime (whether already in place during this peak hurricane season or next year in 2018) is how that is juxtaposed against the alleged end of recent active warm-phase of the Atlantic AMO in terms of hurricanes as suggested by many (now going into a less active period for the Atlantic). I am not an expert on the AMO by any means but logic dictates that you could still have an average or slightly above average season, even in a less active cool phase AMO, in a La Nina year followed by average or below average years during neutral or El Nino phases in a cool phase AMO. 
Just noting how interesting the global effects of the enso phases are and specifically as related to Atlantic tropical storms and what the final outcome of this season might bring in terms of the ultimate numbers during a quick transition through neutral into La Nina conditions.


NASA Examined Tropical Storm Colin's Heavy Rainfall from Space
Data from NASA's Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) were used to estimate rainfall from Tropical Storm Colin over a two day period before it dissipated.




This rainfall analysis between June 6 and 8 from NASA's IMERG analysis showed Colin's heaviest precipitation occurred over central Florida. Extreme rainfall amounts of over 280 mm (11 inches) were measured during this period where tropical Storm Colin formed in the Gulf of Mexico.
Credits: NASA/JAXA/SSAI, Hal Pierce
Daddyjames - It's interesting that someone educated in Florida and having lived in Florida doesn't know how detrimental the effects of releasing water from Lake O is. And also how controversial that practice is as well. I would excuse someone NOT educated or having lived in Florida from not knowing that - just as I have had to learn the uniqueness of Alaska.
Are these Greenland temperatures real?
https://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/0425 4.html
I think the record high for the month of June in Greenland is 23.2 Celcius and the station reports 24 celcius at 2:50 PM local time
Quoting 4. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update...


Does a La NIna help or hurt your rain situation, Ped?
Quoting 12. Dakster:

Daddyjames - It's interesting that someone educated in Florida and having lived in Florida doesn't know how detrimental the effects of releasing water from Lake O is. And also how controversial that practice is as well. I would excuse someone NOT educated or having lived in Florida from not knowing that - just as I have had to learn the uniqueness of Alaska.


Totally agree.
Got a friend who works in West Palm Beach. Nearly her entire office is staring outside their window looking at the storm, the look pretty strong.
ESPI has continued to lean toward La Nina. It's -0.34 today.


Weather is delaying a Delta 4 heavy launch at Cape Canaveral. New launch time is 2:55 EDT. Live coverage here.
Quoting 17. Skyepony:

ESPI has continued to lean toward La Nina. It's -0.34 today.


Weather is delaying a Delta 4 heavy launch at Cape Canaveral. New launch time is 2:55 EDT.

Weather from the south is pushing up. I won't bet on the 2:55 launch.
Quoting 14. Dakster:



Does a La NIna help or hurt your rain situation, Ped?


It is a detriment.
this part of e. cen florida we only got 1 1/2 inches the event to now. but just south of us got hammered. its raining hard again down there. looks almost like a wall cloud from here. dark
Thanks for this fascinating update. It's very interesting to learn there's such a limited predictability this year, given what's at stakes (a strong La Nina coming right behind such an El Nino could possibly trigger massive floods worldwide). We'll wait and see.
Quoting 10. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson. An interesting sub-set of the issues raised by a La Nina regime (whether already in place during this peak hurricane season or next year in 2018) is how that is juxtaposed against the alleged end of recent active warm-phase of the Atlantic AMO in terms of hurricanes as suggested by many (now going into a less active period for the Atlantic). I am not an expert on the AMO by any means but logic dictates that you could still have an average or slightly above average season, even in a less active cool phase AMO, in a La Nina year followed by average or below average years during neutral or El Nino phases in a cool phase AMO. 
Just noting how interesting the global effects of the enso phases are and specifically as related to Atlantic tropical storms and what the final outcome of this season might bring in terms of the ultimate numbers during a quick transition through neutral into La Nina conditions.




I think the at Atlantic has made quite the turn around in recent weeks. +AMO Horeshoe has become more evident in recent weeks. Will be interesting this season.
Quoting 13. Snacker2:

Are these Greenland temperatures real?
https://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/0425 4.html
I think the record high for the month of June in Greenland is 23.2 Celcius and the station reports 24 celcius at 2:50 PM local time



Certainly looks real to me:

Today's weather history for Nuuk (BGGH]
METARs for BGGH (NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data)

This site notes the 23.2°C record for June in Greenland (Kangerlussuaq, June 15, 2014)
Polar Portal

Good catch!
A bow echo is forming with that storm heading into Port St. Lucie. Hopefully nothing tornadic comes from it.
Quoting 19. PedleyCA:



It is a detriment.


That's is what I thought I remembered... That stinks for you in SoCal. That means you never busted the drought.
Comparing 2016 and 2015, the AMO is much stronger in 2016 and the PDO is much weaker.


This does not have a true +AMO shape, nor does it have a true -AMO shape. The CFS thinks the ENTIRE Atlantic will be warm this year!
Quoting 20. islander101010:

this part of e. cen florida we only got 1 1/2 inches the event to now. but just south of us got hammered. its raining hard again down there. looks almost like a wall cloud from here. dark


It's pretty dark and rainy here in Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie- the second day in a row.
Some time ago I noted that it appears there has been as much as one degree of warming in the Nio 3.4 region, per this graph, to which I have added a trend line in red. Seems as though this warming should affect the behavior of El Nio/La Nia since the current base temperature of the region is quite a bit warmer than the average.
Quoting 23. BobHenson:



Certainly looks real to me:

Today's weather history for Nuuk (BGGH]
METARs for BGGH (NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data)

This site notes the 23.2°C record for June in Greenland (Kangerlussuaq, June 15, 2014)
Polar Portal

Good catch!


The forecast for Kangerlussuaq tomorrow is even warmer.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 31. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


... and then removed it. What went wrong there?
Quoting 32. EmsiNasklug:



... and removed it. What went wrong there?



That was weird.
In the long term, that North Atlantic cold pool off of Greenland (result of Arctic glacial melt) may have an impact on the Atlantic AMO since it is partially defined by the flow of the Gulf Stream across the North Atlantic and back down and we currently see that consistent piling up of warm water off the NE US Coast. Do not know what impact that may have downstream on the traditional AMO footprints that we normally look at when defining a positive or negative phase in the future. The colder water may just continue to cool off/pool in the North Atlantic while the mid-latitudes continue to warm every summer like normal so to speak with little to no impact on traditional central Atlantic hurricane climatology or we could see some significant SST departures all along the MDR both in the Atlantic and closer to home in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. That nut will take a few decades to figure out.




Quoting 8. daddyjames:



But she certainly did not get a degree in hydrology. Nor did she demonstrate any familiarity with Florida water management, the environmental issues related to it, or the fact that heavy rains this winter/early Spring filled Lake O to the brim and that the Army Corps of Engineers/SFWMD have been dumping a ton of water - pretty much anywhere they can - to reduce the level of Lake O for the anticipated "rainy" season.

I understand they have to "blah. blah. blah" to fill air time . . .

As a national (and respected) meteorologist - I would expect that she would have been at least familiar with the issue and not say something so blatantly incorrect. Or simply not say it at all.

in case you have not followed (from the previous blog) here is what we are commenting upon. The blatantly incorrect statement made by Stephanie Abrams:

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Edit: Combined with the fact that she got her degrees from two Florida colleges, well she should be familiar with the topic . . .


You know, in her shoes, I'd prefer this to be a private teaching moment rather than a public flailing. She made a mistake. People do that sometimes. Dragging it along into two blogs now seems like piling it on.

Here in north central Oklahoma, I am already having to water my newly planted garden beds. While I never plant anything that isn't heat tolerant and more or less xeric, I still have to baby things the first year. The heat has moved in, and I doubt it will leave for long before September.
"--South Africa’s most expensive natural disaster on record, a severe drought culminating in the summer of 2015-16 that hammered crops and water supplies"

We're still suffering from the hangover - Cape Town's water resources are below 30 % of dam capacity.
Someone just hit the wrong button it would seem.................................. :)
Quoting 33. Bucsboltsfan:



That was weird.


It says "Jason updated" as the title. Odd.
Quoting 23. BobHenson:



Certainly looks real to me:

Today's weather history for Nuuk (BGGH]

Looking at the temperatures vs.time, there are several large changes within short periods, i.e., a 10 F jump between 2:00 and 2:50, then a drop back 9 F at 3:00, only 10 minutes later If I'm reading the table properly. It's likely this is the result of an instrument malfunction, IMHO.
Quoting 39. EricGreen:



Seems as if the xx:50 observations are from completely different site than the xx:00 observations. xx:50 observations are consistently higher than xx:00.
Quoting 34. weathermanwannabe:

In the long term, that North Atlantic cold pool off of Greenland (result of Arctic glacial melt) may have an impact on the Atlantic AMO since it is partially defined by the flow of the Gulf Stream across the North Atlantic and back down and we currently see that consistent piling up of warm water off the NE US Coast. Do not know what impact that may have downstream on the traditional AMO footprints that we normally look at when defining a positive or negative phase in the future. The colder water may just continue to cool off/pool in the North Atlantic while the mid-latitudes continue to warm every summer like normal so to speak with little to no impact on traditional central Atlantic hurricane climatology or we could see some significant SST departures all along the MDR both in the Atlantic and closer to home in the Caribbean and West Atlantic. That nut will take a few decades to figure out.





Interesting, do you have a link or two, for the cold pool being caused by glacier melt. Thanks for any info.
Quoting 32. EmsiNasklug:



... and then removed it. What went wrong there?



i all so wounder if they ever found out what happen too the blogs the other night and if they where in fact hacked or not
Quoting 41. NativeSun:

Interesting, do you have a link or two, for the cold pool being caused by glacier melt. Thanks for any info.

http://mashable.com/2015/03/24/gulf-stream-slowdo wn-study-tipping-point/#TS0FhxI2Rqqc
Here is a good one with the cite to the research on the issue of a potential AMO slowdown due to the melt issue.

The upper image (a) shows the warming trend from 1901 to 2013 in degrees Fahrenheit per century. The authors remind us that the "hole" over Africa is likely caused by poor data. White indicates no data. The lower image (b) is a crop of the warming hole in the North Atlantic. The bold, black circular region with small circles in a grid pattern that encompasses much of the "hole" is the result of modeling overlaid on the 1901 to 2013 temperature trend map. The modeling experiment added fresh water to the North Atlantic and the grid circles indicate cooling from the model with the bold black line being the 4.3-degree Fahrenheit (2-degree Celsius) cooling boundary. Modeling and real world observation match surprisingly well.
Quoting 35. gunhilda:



You know, in her shoes, I'd prefer this to be a private teaching moment rather than a public flailing. She made a mistake. People do that sometimes. Dragging it along into two blogs now seems like piling it on.

Here in north central Oklahoma, I am already having to water my newly planted garden beds. While I never plant anything that isn't heat tolerant and more or less xeric, I still have to baby things the first year. The heat has moved in, and I doubt it will leave for long before September.


Timing is everything. Nea posted a response - I responded to it on the next blog, as the new blog had just been posted.

I understand people make mistakes. Mike Morgan (KFOR) made a mistake - under extreme circumstances - and was vilified for it.

Not equating the two events of course, as Dr. Abrams certainly was not putting anyone's life in jeopardy.

My point being: as professional meteorologists, there is a certain responsibility in conveying information as an expert. Unfortunate "mistakes" like this lessens the overall credibility of that person. Just stick to the weather . . .

Addendum: as well as undermining their credibility, it also confuses the public . . .
The ECMWF has an intensifying tropical storm in the East Pacific next weekend--certainly an oddity so far in 2016. It also has the start of Danielle off the East Coast as a frontal boundary moves offshore and low pressure gets trapped by high pressure to the north. Another classic setup if it were to pan out.

This is not set in stone, it'll change run by run, yada yada.

Quoting 42. Tazmanian:



i all so wounder if they ever found out what happen too the blogs the other night and if they where in fact hacked or not


No, but we probably should not mention it here so others can find out what to do.
Quoting 29. CaneFreeCR:

Some time ago I noted that it appears there has been as much as one degree of warming in the Ni%uFFFDo 3.4 region, per this graph, to which I have added a trend line in red. Seems as though this warming should affect the behavior of El Ni%uFFFDo/La Ni%uFFFDa since the current base temperature of the region is quite a bit warmer than the average.



I believe that they do detrend the data to remove any influences of warming of the oceans from AGW.

Addendum: Actually, they do THIS to account for the warming trend
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has an intensifying tropical storm in the East Pacific next weekend--certainly an oddity so far in 2016. It also has the start of Danielle off the East Coast as a frontal boundary moves offshore and low pressure gets trapped by high pressure to the north. Another classic setup if it were to pan out.

This is not set in stone, it'll change run by run, yada yada.



Certainly something to watch. ECMWF identified Alex and Colin well in advance.

Quoting 41. NativeSun:

Interesting, do you have a link or two, for the cold pool being caused by glacier melt. Thanks for any info.
And here are some direct links (and a quote) related to the 2015 Rahmstorf study:

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/30114-it-s-bee n-there-all-along-exceptional-slowdown-of-the-gulf -stream-from-greenland-melt


The 10-year average for Greenland ice loss has increased more than 500 percent from 2001 to 2011, or from about 34 to 215 gigatons. (6) Also deserving mention, Greenland shattered its ice loss record in 2012, with a 600-gigaton loss reported. (7)This 600-gigaton record is 157 cubic miles of melt or 1.6 millimeters of sea level rise globally.

It is noteworthy that the work Rhamstorf and team have been pursuing is a relatively long-term evaluation and does not really feel the impact of recent melt, especially as related to the 2012 record.

This tremendous discharge of fresh water moves south along either side of Greenland into the North Atlantic where it is blocked from further southward movement by the northward flow of the Gulf Stream. Because fresh water is less dense than salt water, it floats on the surface and basically acts like a plug in the stream. The density variation between the two water masses keeps them from mixing very well, so the plug persists.

Quoting 15. daddyjames:



Totally agree.

Disclaimer: I very rarely watch TWC and barely know who Stephanie Abrams is.

That said, I can tell you that anyone who spends a significant amount of time on TV (or just talking) is going to eventually say something rude, stupid, completely wrong, and/or otherwise completely embarrassing. Hopefully, these are spaced out enough in time to allow one's career to continue. Given the amount of time Abrams has been on the air I can safely assume that she only makes those kind of comments very occasionally.

Cut her some slack, people.
I like this event because it makes the prediction so much more challenging!%u201D


Fascinating.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 50. Misanthroptimist:


Disclaimer: I very rarely watch TWC and barely know who Stephanie Abrams is.

That said, I can tell you that anyone who spends a significant amount of time on TV (or just talking) is going to eventually say something rude, stupid, completely wrong, and/or otherwise completely embarrassing. Hopefully, these are spaced out enough in time to allow one's career to continue. Given the amount of time Abrams has been on the air I can safely assume that she only makes those kind of comments very occasionally.

Cut her some slack, people.


See post 44.
Quoting 8. daddyjames:



But she certainly did not get a degree in hydrology. Nor did she demonstrate any familiarity with Florida water management, the environmental issues related to it, or the fact that heavy rains this winter/early Spring filled Lake O to the brim and that the Army Corps of Engineers/SFWMD have been dumping a ton of water - pretty much anywhere they can - to reduce the level of Lake O for the anticipated "rainy" season.

I understand they have to "blah. blah. blah" to fill air time . . .

As a national (and respected) meteorologist - I would expect that she would have been at least familiar with the issue and not say something so blatantly incorrect. Or simply not say it at all.

in case you have not followed (from the previous blog) here is what we are commenting upon. The blatantly incorrect statement made by Stephanie Abrams:

Stephanie Abrams was commenting about upcoming potential for rain falling over the Lake Okeechobee region in Florida. "That's a good thing" she says. Paraphrasing the rest: You could always use extra water, even though your not in a drought. Can store the extra water.

Edit: Combined with the fact that she got her degrees from two Florida colleges, well she should be familiar with the topic . . .
I saw all that, and will say that if Ms Abrams did indeed state what was reported that she did about Lake O, she should be corrected. But, while I do find the amount of vitriol here a little alarming, I was mostly referring only to that one blatantly sexist and misogynistic comment made about her earlier.

Anyway: I'm in Orlando with a client, and the sky has opened up just in time for rush hour. Should have reserved a closer hotel...
Quoting 53. Neapolitan:

I saw all that, and will say that if Ms Abrams did indeed state what was reported that she did about Lake O, she should be corrected. But, while I do find the amount of vitriol here a little alarming, I was mostly referring only to that one blatantly sexist and misogynistic comment made about her earlier.

Anyway: I'm in Orlando with a client, and the sky has opened up just in time for rush hour. Should have reserved a closer hotel...


I agree, the comment made (to which you responded to) was inappropriate. Stay dry, my friend.
Looks like they may have to scrub the Delta-4 launch this afternoon based on the weather moving over the Cape this afternoon unless it clears out over the next hour or so: for the uninitiated, the National Recon Office mission means that it is essentially a spy satellite.  I am actually surprised that they are publicly giving out the launch details but they can certainly make in orbit corrections and adjustments in terms of the ultimate trajectory and coverage areas for this particular package once in space.  


2010 GMT (4:10 p.m. EDT)While the weather wait continues, a reminder that today's Delta 4-Heavy launch period lasts another couple of hours.


Southeast sector loop
This an interesting article on Greenland Ice Melt.

http://www.adn.com/arctic/2016/06/09/weird-jet-st ream-behavior-could-be-making-greenlands-melting-e ven-worse-scientists-say/

Begin big snip



But when a group of scientists looked back at the last summer melt season — 2015 — they found something odd and troubling.

Specifically, they found that Greenland had shown much more unusual melting in its colder northern stretches than in the warmer south, and that this had occurred because of very strange behavior in the atmosphere above it. During the month of July, an atmospheric phenomenon called a "cutoff high" — a region of high pressure that stayed relatively immobile over the ice sheet, bringing with it sustained sunny conditions — lingered for many days and produced unusual warmth at the surface and record melting for northwest Greenland.

A cutoff high "describes this atmospheric high pressure system that detaches from the jet stream, in this case, and then basically sits there, it's almost like living by itself," said Marco Tedesco, the lead author of the study just published in Nature Communications, and a researcher with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University. "You can imagine something with enough energy to sustain itself, and there's nothing bothering it. And it's sitting right there, and that is driving the clear sky conditions over northwest, and also blowing the cold air over southwest."

The high was accompanied, in this case, by a northward departure of the mid-latitude jet stream — a stream of air in the northern hemisphere that can travel in a more or less wavy route as it progresses from west to east — that set a record for its northward extent, the study found.

The idea that the jet stream has been becoming more loopy and wavy as the Arctic melts, and that this is producing more stuck-in-place weather conditions, is one of the more contentious ones in recent atmospheric and climate science. Yet the new research seems not only to affirm it, but to suggest that it could be an as-yet unacknowledged factor driving Greenland's melting.

End Big Snip.

Normally I do not like to quote that much, but the context is so interesting and so important especially of extreme weather events like the Drought in Texas followed by the Flooding in Texas. (OK, I from Texas and to a Texan everything outside of Texas is just "Not Texas") It would seem that this same blocking pattern was responsible for the extreme cold winter in 2013 and 2014 in the Mid West as well as the extreme snow in 2014/15 on the eastern seaboard. (I just threw that in there to let you know that occasionally that the Texas school systems lifts the big green cover over the area called "Not Texas")

The question that is troubling me is this, "What is going to happen to the jet stream?" Is it going to be continually locking up and causing havoc, or is this like the awkward teenage years when a young mans voice is changing?

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has an intensifying tropical storm in the East Pacific next weekend--certainly an oddity so far in 2016. It also has the start of Danielle off the East Coast as a frontal boundary moves offshore and low pressure gets trapped by high pressure to the north. Another classic setup if it were to pan out.

This is not set in stone, it'll change run by run, yada yada.






GFS and CMC also seem to be showing something in the same area of the Atlantic. It is still 9 days out - but it was about 9 days out when models starting picking up on Colin. If this somehow formed into Danielle it would break Debby's record for the earliest 4th named storm in the Atlantic.
Quoting 39. EricGreen:

Quoting 39. EricGreen:
Looking at the temperatures vs.time, there are several large changes within short periods, i.e., a 10 F jump between 2:00 and 2:50, then a drop back 9 F at 3:00, only 10 minutes later If I'm reading the table properly. It's likely this is the result of an instrument malfunction, IMHO.



I think this apparent see-saw effect is a result of the observations from the airport (just before each hour) being intermingled with obs from the in-town station (on the hour], where it only got up to about 20C. See this tweet in reply to my tweet about the event:

Comparison of obs from Nuuk airport vs. city
I recently returned from a week long vacation camping and traveling the Cascade Loop Highway here in Washington to celebrate our anniversary with the hubby. I had no Internet or cell signal for days. I figured, what could I possibly miss by taking at trip in early June? Bonnie re-develops? A land falling tropical storm?!? Flooding rains? Seriously mother nature, you're putting on quite the show this year. Murphy's Law implies another storm will make landfall around July 13, as I'll be off the grid for a week.

It was hot, way too hot. Again. I know I sound like a broken record, but I'd be perfectly fine to stop breaking heat records any time now. Seattle hit 90F this year before Chicago. We hit 90F before my family back in DC. Crazy. So it's hot in the lowlands, what better way to get around that then go to the mountains? Even at 5500ft elevation, it was over 85F in Okanagan National Forest. When we got to Eastern, WA near Lake Chelan (a dramatically different climate) it was over 100F! Nearly 20F higher than normal. Thankfully, it's cooling down and our Seattle forecast looks amazing.

Edit: Fixed link
60. IDTH
Quoting 45. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF has an intensifying tropical storm in the East Pacific next weekend--certainly an oddity so far in 2016. It also has the start of Danielle off the East Coast as a frontal boundary moves offshore and low pressure gets trapped by high pressure to the north. Another classic setup if it were to pan out.

This is not set in stone, it'll change run by run, yada yada.



Something to watch as we go forward in time.
Quoting 56. Qazulight:


SNIP (all caps as it was a lot)

The question that is troubling me is this, "What is going to happen to the jet stream?" Is it going to be continually locking up and causing havoc, or is this like the awkward teenage years when a young mans voice is changing?

Cheers
Qazulight


In short, possibly yes . . .

Siberian Heatwave Wrecks Sea Ice as Greenland High Settles In
"El Nino is officially over"......... where is Chris Farley when we need him?
Quoting 56. Qazulight:

(snip)
The question that is troubling me is this, "What is going to happen to the jet stream?" Is it going to be continually locking up and causing havoc, or is this like the awkward teenage years when a young mans voice is changing?

Cheers
Qazulight
I'm beginning to think that the effects of land areas like northern North America and Europe/Asia influence the slowed-down North Polar Jet Stream by heating or cooling the air masses, and cause the blocking patterns to get stuck over land or water, depending on the relative pressure. If that's the case then we should expect this pattern to become more persistent and longer-lasting as the jet stream slows further due to the Arctic warming, as postulated, I believe, by Dr. Francis. The effect of that will probably be to increase the impacts of droughts, heat waves, etc. Fun times!
Everyone have a great and safe weather evening and see Yall in the am.  Yes, between the research by Dr. Francis as to polar amplification patterns due to jet stream variations across the Northern Hemisphere/Arctic region and the Greenland ice sheet melt issue, as documented by Dr. Rahmstorf and their colleagues,, the research is fascinating and pointing in the same direction (corroboration).
Quoting 18. 10Speed:


Weather from the south is pushing up. I won't bet on the 2:55 launch.

If you are looking for some hope, the launch weather team now predicts a 30 percent chance of GO conditions around 5:40 p.m. EDT (2140 GMT).

The RED weather rules currently are flight thru precipitation, anvil clouds, disturbed weather and electrical potential.
Quazu

Here is an additional site that offers "the other half" of it . . . what is going on beneath the ice . . . if interested.

Summer 2016 Surface Melt Takes Off

67. IDTH
Note above Africa in the North east Atlantic, notice how the water temps are running much above average and even though I expect this to be a - AMO year, I feel that the warm waters and the upcoming La Nina will more than likely allow this year to be above average.





Quoting 67. IDTH:

Note above Africa in the North east Atlantic, notice how the water temps are running much above average and even though I expect this to be a - AMO year, I feel that the warm waters and the upcoming La Nina will more than likely allow this year to be above average.







You can't have a negative AMO without the very configuration that makes a negative AMO. Tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures are 0.5-1C above average, and the Atlantic has even snuck above average compared to global SSTs. We have a solid positive AMO right now.
I speculated in the last blog, but does the alarming melt of the Arctic have any contributions for the pool of cool in the North Atlantic? Low density waters don't as readily sink and travel/warm up

Posted before I saw #56, good read

Quoting 62. NRAamy:

"El Nino is officially over"......... where is Chris Farley when we need him?


The same place he's been for the last 19 years
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You can't have a negative AMO without the very configuration that makes a negative AMO. Tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures are 0.5-1C above average, and the Atlantic has even snuck above average compared to global SSTs. We have a solid positive AMO right now.

Agreed. If most of the Atlantic is warm, it isn't a -AMO. If it was a true -AMO the AMO values would be below average.
72. IDTH
Quoting 69. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You can't have a negative AMO without the very configuration that makes a negative AMO. Tropical Atlantic ocean temperatures are 0.5-1C above average, and the Atlantic has even snuck above average compared to global SSTs. We have a solid positive AMO right now.

Okay, I couldn't tell at first because I assumed where the cold pool was indicated that we were still in a negative AMO. Thank you for correcting me by the way.
Quoting 59. Seattleite:

I recently returned from a week long vacation camping and traveling the Cascade Loop Highway here in Washington to celebrate our anniversary with the hubby. I had no Internet or cell signal for days. I figured, what could I possibly miss by taking at trip in early June? Bonnie re-develops? A land falling tropical storm?!? Flooding rains? Seriously mother nature, you're putting on quite the show this year. Murphy's Law implies another storm will make landfall around July 13, as I'll be off the grid for a week.

It was hot, way too hot. Again. I know I sound like a broken record, but I'd be perfectly fine to stop breaking heat records any time now. Seattle hit 90F this year before Chicago. We hit 90F before my family back in DC. Crazy. So it's hot in the lowlands, what better way to get around that then go to the mountains? Even at 5500ft elevation, it was over 85F in Okanagan National Forest. When we got to Eastern, WA near Lake Chelan (a dramatically different climate) it was over 100F! Nearly 20F higher than normal. Thankfully, it's cooling down and our Seattle forecast looks amazing.

Edit: Fixed link


I dunno, it was hot for two days out here on "the dry side". Just before that it's been cold, too cold to be on the lake unless your in gear to go fishing. Even when it was hot, it still got down into the mid 50's at night. Aside from a warm and dry late march to early april, the weather has been pretty much perfect.
Quoting 70. win1gamegiantsplease:

I speculated in the last blog, but does the alarming melt of the Arctic have any contributions for the pool of cool in the North Atlantic? Low density waters don't as readily sink and travel/warm up

Posted before I saw #56, good read



The same place he's been for the last 19 years


I think so, my understanding, (Be sure and ask me about telephones and stuff if you want answers based on knowledge) I understand that the cold pool is the fresh melt water off of Greenland. It is not only producing the cold pool, it is slowing the Gulf Stream, (Think this is related to the AMOC, but I have not made that connection firmly in my head yet.) This slowing means that the cold water from Greenland is not mixing with the salt water under it, and it is not absorbing the heat from the Gulf Stream. That heat is piling up off of the eastern seaboard and would keep me awake at night if I were unfortunate enough to live anywhere east of the Mississippi river.

On a slightly unrelated note: That cold pool that is responsible for the slowing Gulf Stream also causes higher tides on the eastern seaboard because when the Gulf Stream was moving more rapidly it tended to pull water away from the land.

Of course, I could be totally confused. If you want authority, ask me telephone wire color code, or why LTE is so much more awesome than GSM.

Cheers
Qazulight
Political contest:

Go to http://www.270towin.com
Select each state's winner as you see fit.
Then click on the "share" button below the map. Then click on the "embed" button.
Copy and past the embed code into a comment in my blog.

n.b., you cannot choose a map identical to one someone chose before on my blog. Well, you can, but I won't accept it as a valid entry. You can come to the same electoral vote total by different combination of states. Winner to be determined by distance from actual electoral vote total. Ties broken by who gets the most states correct. Winner--bragging rights.

Deadline: July 5th.

Play nice!
N.b., in the past week the decrease of sea ice extent in the Arctic region has been very slow. During that period the gap between 2012 and this year on the same date has decreased by more than 400,000 km2.
Quoting 75. Qazulight:



I think so, my understanding, (Be sure and ask me about telephones and stuff if you want answers based on knowledge) I understand that the cold pool is the fresh melt water off of Greenland. It is not only producing the cold pool, it is slowing the Gulf Stream, (Think this is related to the AMOC, but I have not made that connection firmly in my head yet.) This slowing means that the cold water from Greenland is not mixing with the salt water under it, and it is not absorbing the heat from the Gulf Stream. That heat is piling up off of the eastern seaboard and would keep me awake at night if I were unfortunate enough to live anywhere east of the Mississippi river.

On a slightly unrelated note: That cold pool that is responsible for the slowing Gulf Stream also causes higher tides on the eastern seaboard because when the Gulf Stream was moving more rapidly it tended to pull water away from the land.

Of course, I could be totally confused. If you want authority, ask me telephone wire color code, or why LTE is so much more awesome than GSM.

Cheers
Qazulight


AMOC slowdown: Connecting the dots

The Gulf Stream is a portion of the AMOC



Obviously, the AMOC occurs in the Atlantic.
Quoting 75. Qazulight:

Of course, I could be totally confused. If you want authority, ask me telephone wire color code, or why LTE is so much more awesome than GSM.


Why is LTE so much more awesome than GSM - for that matter, what is GSM? (You can WUmail me if you think the others will be bored).
81. wpb
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_moni toring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
Quoting 76. BaltimoreBrian:

Political contest:

Go to http://www.270towin.com
Select each state's winner as you see fit.
Then click on the "share" button below the map. Then click on the "embed" button.
Copy and past the embed code into a comment in my blog

n.b., you cannot choose a map identical to one someone chose before on my blog. Well, you can, but I won't accept it as a valid entry. You can come to the same electoral vote total by different combination of states. Winner to be determined by distance from actual electoral vote total. Ties broken by who gets the most states correct. Winner--bragging rights.

Play nice!


Put mine in, let me know if I have to re-predict. Any cutoff date?
What was the verdict about the landfall? Or is it null and void due to the NHC not calling it? (I think it was north of Cedar Key, in all fairness).
Quoting 73. nrtiwlnvragn:

Not again......


Congress is considering privatizing key roles of the Weather Service. That’s a mistake.


Did you not think that very vocal criticism from some private weather forecasters was not serving some kind of purpose?
New Greenland paper, and it ain't good -

“The number of melt days in the north eastern, western and north western regions, was up to 30-40 days above the 1981-2010 average and setting new records for melt water production and runoff in the north western region.”

Link



It’s thought that by lessening the temperature difference between polar latitudes and more temperate regions, climate change can slow down the jet stream, and this slowdown could give the jet stream enough wiggle room to let it bend far more northward than it usually does. In fact, the study reveals the northernmost record of the jet stream ever observed.

Link


Wobbly Jet Stream Is Sending the Melting Arctic into ‘Uncharted Territory’

A shift in weather patterns created a month of extreme melting, prompting scientists’ concern about the impact on long-term climate models.

Extraordinary melting in Greenland’s ice sheet last summer was linked to warm air delivered by the wandering jet stream, a phenomenon that scientists have increasingly tied to global warming.

This interplay of climate phenomena, described in a new study in the journal Nature Communications, is more evidence of the complex ways in which the Arctic’s climate is heading for “uncharted territory,” said the study’s lead author, Marco Tedesco.

The study adds to an emerging theory on the effects of the pronounced warming of the Arctic, where temperatures are rising faster than in more temperate zones, as models have long predicted. Known as “Arctic amplification,” this moderates the normal temperature incline that drives the jet stream. If it makes the jet stream wobble, as some scientists suspect, it would suck warm air up into the Arctic—as was observed in Greenland last year.


Link
Quoting 77. BaltimoreBrian:

N.b., in the past week the decrease of sea ice extent in the Arctic region has been very slow. During that period the gap between 2012 and this year on the same date has decreased by more than 400,000 km2.


Yeah, but this is a little sobering:

Quoting 80. daddyjames:

Quoting 75. Qazulight:

Of course, I could be totally confused. If you want authority, ask me telephone wire color code, or why LTE is so much more awesome than GSM.


Why is LTE so much more awesome than GSM - for that matter, what is GSM? (You can WUmail me if you think the others will be bored).


LTE, Long Term Evolution and the frequency range allows for faster communication, but more towers are needed. GSM - (which was supposed to be a Global Standard) is the older technology - Global Systems for Mobile (technology) so the frequency range and use is lower... There is actually a newer standard of LTE coming out which is much faster than current LTE tech. too.

If you really want more details I can PM you... Even how the devices send data is different. Kinda like old style MODEMS over landlines - 300/1200 baud and then the compression and modulation allowed up to 56K...
Quoting 64. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a great and safe weather evening and see Yall in the am. %uFFFDYes, between the research by Dr. Francis as to polar amplification patterns due to jet stream variations across the Northern Hemisphere/Arctic region and the Greenland ice sheet melt issue, as documented by Dr. Rahmstorf and their colleagues,, the research is fascinating and pointing in the same direction (corroboration).

Totally nitpicking...the word is Y'all, a contraction of you all. I am, you are, he/she/it is, we are, you all are, they are. :>D
Quoting 86. Dakster:



LTE, Long Term Evolution and the frequency range allows for faster communication, but more towers are needed. GSM - (which was supposed to be a Global Standard) is the older technology - Global Systems for Mobile (technology) so the frequency range and use is lower... There is actually a newer standard of LTE coming out which is much faster than current LTE tech. too.

If you really want more details I can PM you... Even how the devices send data is different. Kinda like old style MODEMS over landlines - 300/1200 baud and then the compression and modulation allowed up to 56K...


Yea, PM me - as i am a bit lost atm . . .
Quoting 75. Qazulight:



I think so, my understanding, (Be sure and ask me about telephones and stuff if you want answers based on knowledge) I understand that the cold pool is the fresh melt water off of Greenland. It is not only producing the cold pool, it is slowing the Gulf Stream, (Think this is related to the AMOC, but I have not made that connection firmly in my head yet.) This slowing means that the cold water from Greenland is not mixing with the salt water under it, and it is not absorbing the heat from the Gulf Stream. That heat is piling up off of the eastern seaboard and would keep me awake at night if I were unfortunate enough to live anywhere east of the Mississippi river.

On a slightly unrelated note: That cold pool that is responsible for the slowing Gulf Stream also causes higher tides on the eastern seaboard because when the Gulf Stream was moving more rapidly it tended to pull water away from the land.

Of course, I could be totally confused. If you want authority, ask me telephone wire color code, or why LTE is so much more awesome than GSM.

Cheers
Qazulight


OK, the density might then be the reason for its slowing. The movement of water is related to higher density water sinking, and salinity affects this more than temperature. I was guessing the pool of water lingering had to do with the fact it's not likely to sink as far and rise back up as the higher pressure does work on the water.

And I'm one of the unfortunates living on the eastern seaboard.
LOL - does post 85 have the image? I cannot see it (same thing that may have been afflicting another user recently).

Record Drop in Coal Burning Raises Question — Is Peak Fossil Fuel Use Happening Now?

Link
Deadline for the electoral vote contest in my blog is July 5th.

daddyjames I can see the image in your comment #85.
Quoting 85. daddyjames:



Yeah, but this is a little sobering:




It was 75 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland today -

Link
GSM is always the best. Why? Because the Finnish prime minister was the first person in the world to make a GSM call.

(/end nationalistic bragging)
Quoting 88. daddyjames:



Yea, PM me - as i am a bit lost atm . . .


I did... and probably best to take it off blog....

Greenland Melt is crazy and the melting up here in Alaska is als scary and amazing... Planning a glacier cruise so I can see them before they are gone.
Quoting 94. elioe:

GSM is always the best. Why? Because the Finnish prime minister was the first person in the world to make a GSM call.

(/end nationalistic bragging)


That was in the last century.
Quoting 93. RobertWC:



It was 75 F degrees at Nuuk, Greenland today -

Link


Yeah, someone posted earlier about it - was asking if that was for real. Apparently so (but see Dr. Hensen's qualifying statement).
Quoting 96. Dakster:



That was in the last century.


Nationalistic bragging knows no time limits ;)

On a more climate-related note, I can't wait for the Arctic Ocean to melt completely. Because after that, the summertime surface temperatures of the Arctic can begin rising. As there would be hardly any place left on this hemisphere to produce an ~0 C airmass, I can get rid of annoying June snowfalls.
Quoting 98. elioe:



Nationalistic bragging knows no time limits ;)

On a more climate-related note, I can't wait for the Arctic Ocean to melt completely. Because after that, the summertime surface temperatures of the Arctic can begin rising. As there would be hardly any place left on this hemisphere to produce an ~0 C airmass, I can get rid of annoying June snowfalls.


And trade them for 12 inches rains in 8 hours.
Quoting 97. daddyjames:



Yeah, someone posted earlier about it - was asking if that was for real. Apparently so (but see Dr. Hensen's qualifying statement).
as of 3 pm edt today late spring northern hemisphere


Just out :
Alaska Continues to Bake, on Track For Hottest Year
Climate Central.
How El Nino impacts global temperatures
Phys.org.
Greenland sets melt records in 2015 consistent with "Arctic amplification"
Phys.org.
Jason Box on Greenland's Melt Season
Climatecrocks.com.
"You know we can all - kind of... Grab some pop-corn and hope things don't get too interesting this summer in the Arctic..." says Jason Box at the end of this new video.
Puzzle of Antarctica's long-term ice loss
Tim Radford, Climate News Network.
Arctic ice dwindles to record low
Tim Radford, Climate News Network.
Danger from extreme storms and high seas to rise
Phys.org.


faster and faster
Wow. KOTG....

Hear no facts, see no proof, speak no truth; signs you may have been brainwashed by certain programs that have outperformed expectations against the truth of AGW. You would have had to not do any research on the subject that stands scientific scrutiny to be so blind. Lets be honest though, the misinformation has been that good. Arctic melting doesn't mean no snow, it means Earth is going to begin to get rid of the parasites that have mistreated her so. It means a new age that is unimaginable and being undersold to not rile the critics. Will it take that, the whole Arctic melting before we really get our act together? I think so. Alas, it will be too late then.
Quoting 104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



faster and faster


"It's just a cycle."

- Some Oklahoma senator guy
109. elioe
Quoting 99. RobertWC:



And trade them for 12 inches rains in 8 hours.


Well, it's already possible, I guess, since instantaneous rainfall rates of 1.5 inch/hour are not unheard of. It would only need a currently extraordinarily strong thunderstorm to stall for 8 hours. Perhaps the possibility of 12 inches in 8 hours in a given location is now 1/1000000 in a given year. Perhaps it will be 1/100000 in the future. That's a trade I'm willing to take.

Even if that would happen, it would most likely cause primarily only localized street flooding. Topographic gradients here are moderate: too steep to let big expanses of floodwater to form, too flat to cause landslides. Most of that water would enter lakes almost immediately. And even such precipitation were to happen, it would be too localized to cause significant river flooding.

Quoting 101. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

as of 3 pm edt today late spring northern hemisphere




Seems (again) like some serious Foehn wind blowing from east to west through the Greenlandic ice cap.
Quoting 103. Grothar:




Looks like the land blob season will start early this year.
Quoting 108. win1gamegiantsplease:



"It's just a cycle."

- Some Oklahoma senator guy

its ok nature is gonna melt an ice sheet into the atlantic
just as a payback and ya know the old sayin with paybacks
Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its ok nature is gonna throw an ice sheet into the atlantic
just as a payback and ya know the old sayin with paybacks


Best served on a platter cold or in this case extremely hot. "They" must really not care at all how history will remember them. Money and power is just that intoxicating, even if it costs your grandchildren their future.
Existing Conditions




Natural Conditions




Source
Quoting 108. win1gamegiantsplease:



"It's just a cycle."

- Some Oklahoma senator guy

Yeah a cycle were seriously messing up

New Video: Climate and Hurricanes 2016 - June 9, 2016

from Climate Denial Crock of the Week with Peter Sinclair.
"As the 2016 hurricane season gets underway in the northern hemisphere, the new "This is Not Cool" video features interview footage shot in December with Kerry Emanuel, one of the most widely quoted and well known hurricane experts in the world.
Nutshell: A warmer climate is expected to elevate the natural "speed limit" on hurricane/Tropical Cyclone wind speeds, and accompanying storm surge and destructiveness. We may already be seeing this play out.
Also appearing are scientists Kevin Trenberth, Jeff Masters, Michael Mann, Josh Willis, and the Weather Underground's crack journo Bob Henson."
Quoting 106. DeepSeaRising:

Hear no facts, see no proof, speak no truth; signs you may have been brainwashed by certain programs that have outperformed expectations against the truth of AGW. You would have had to not do any research on the subject that stands scientific scrutiny to be so blind. Lets be honest though, the misinformation has been that good. Arctic melting doesn't mean no snow, it means Earth is going to begin to get rid of the parasites that have mistreated her so. It means a new age that is unimaginable and being undersold to not rile the critics. Will it take that, the whole Arctic melting before we really get our act together? I think so. Alas, it will be too late then.
Any predictions on how long we have as a race?
Quoting 108. win1gamegiantsplease:



"It's just a cycle."

- Some Oklahoma senator guy


That'll last for 1,000's of years . . .
Quoting 116. Kenfa03:

Any predictions on how long we have as a race?


I'm doing as told, I'm watching carefully, but the signs are everywhere. Greed, rapid moral collapse, rapid climate change, most refugees in known history, insolvent debt, and a new age of anti-intellectualism. I make no projections on that question, but the time never seen before nor to be seen again, "could" be rapidly approaching. Hope not, we can turn the ship around, but the cliff can't be far.
Quoting 110. Envoirment:



Looks like the land blob season will start early this year.


remember how many there were last year, but luckily just fizzled??
Quoting 116. Kenfa03:

Any predictions on how long we have as a race?


As a species?
Quoting 116. Kenfa03:

Any predictions on how long we have as a race?
there will always be humans we have been reduced too a couple of 100,000 a few times global wise in our history it will happen again its just a cycle
Quoting 111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its ok nature is gonna melt an ice sheet into the atlantic
just as a payback and ya know the old sayin with paybacks


Correct, it's a global extinction cycle...
Quoting 121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there will always be humans we have been reduced too a couple of 100,000 a few times global wise in our history it will happen again its just a cycle


Technically, that is referred to as a population bottleneck . . .
Quoting 115. 999Ai2016:


New Video: Climate and Hurricanes 2016 - June 9, 2016

from Climate Denial Crock of the Week with Peter Sinclair.
"As the 2016 hurricane season gets underway in the northern hemisphere, the new "This is Not Cool" video features interview footage shot in December with Kerry Emanuel, one of the most widely quoted and well known hurricane experts in the world.
Nutshell: A warmer climate is expected to elevate the natural "speed limit" on hurricane/Tropical Cyclone wind speeds, and accompanying storm surge and destructiveness. We may already be seeing this play out.
Also appearing are scientists Kevin Trenberth, Jeff Masters, Michael Mann, Josh Willis, and the Weather Underground's crack journo Bob Henson."







Front stalling well to our south in Florida, high pressure building in. Gonna be a great weekend.

Later gators.

Quoting 120. daddyjames:



As a species?


Technically yes but we're almost always referred to as "the human race" (no not the tv show)
Quoting 122. Dakster:



Correct, it's a global extinction cycle...
not till we reach 6 degrees and we have already surpassed that in the arctic just not globally yet then rapid methane release occurs temps will soar 11 to 14 degrees warmer globally then its done just like dinner piping hot ready to serve
Cheer up guys this is the day the Lord has made rejoice and be glad in it!
Quoting 125. win1gamegiantsplease:

Front stalling well to our south in Florida, high pressure building in. Gonna be a great weekend.

Later gators.



Technically yes but we're almost always referred to as "the human race" (no not the tv show)


That's The Amazing Race.
Each day is but a gift treat it as such
Quoting 129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Each day is but a gift treat it as such



Can I return some days for a refund?
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not till we reach 6 degrees and we have already surpassed that in the arctic just not globally yet then rapid methane release occurs temps will soar 11 to 14 degrees warmer globally then its done just like dinner piping hot ready to serve


For a little bit, we will all live "up in the mountains" as that will be where the remaining habitable land is. And as long as the sun is shining and I can get to some sort of water that will reverse osmosis, we can grow food. It will be an adjustment for alot of people for sure. myself included.
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Can I return some days for a refund?


My laugh of the day, thank you
If the Republican congress privatizes the NHC, SPC, etc, then you can best bet they won't be replaced by scientists. They will be replaced by those who's agenda is anything but the truth............cue Scott Walker. He's gutted our state and changed us for a generation at least. Great state though if your a one percenter.
Quoting 131. Dakster:



For a little bit, we will all live "up in the mountains" as that will be where the remaining habitable land is. And as long as the sun is shining and I can get to some sort of water that will reverse osmosis, we can grow food. It will be an adjustment for alot of people for sure. myself included.
adapting will become the big scheme of things but like all life forces it is capable of adapting the problem is can they do it faster than ever before
the winds of change are a-blowin' . . .

Utility Dive report: The State of the Electric Utility 2016

By now, it's become cliche to suggest the utility sector is in the midst of a transformation. For years, we've been told that the rise of alternative energy technologies would drastically change the way electric utilities do business. And while most in the sector agree that the utility business model is changing, opinions of what it will look like in the future are much less unanimous. In Utility Dive's annual report on the state of the electric utility in 2016, we surveyed over 500 electric utility executives to better understand the differing perspectives on this period of transition.

Sample Findings:

Only 3% of respondents say their utility's business model doesn't need change
Utility executives see the existing utility regulatory model as the biggest impediment to transforming business models
The three biggest challenges facing utilities in 2016 are all legacy issues - aging workforce, outdated regulatory model, and aging infrastructure
Utility executives see significant opportunities in emerging areas - energy efficiency and DSM programs, community solar, and EV infrastructure

Download it now it now for an in-depth look at these survey results and insights into the state and future of the electric utility business.
135 DaddyJames
I have a fairly dumb laptop. Is the file very large?
Quoting 136. SunnyDaysFla:

135 DaddyJames
I have a fairly dumb laptop. Is the file very large?


One moment please. It is only 14 Mb, and is a pdf. Is that too big? I would not think so.
Quoting 131. Dakster:



For a little bit, we will all live "up in the mountains" as that will be where the remaining habitable land is. And as long as the sun is shining and I can get to some sort of water that will reverse osmosis, we can grow food. It will be an adjustment for alot of people for sure. myself included.
So you are preparing to move to the mountains?
Quoting 134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

adapting will become the big scheme of things but like all life forces it is capable of adapting the problem is can they do it faster than ever before


I'll have to consult my notes on Darwin to answer that question. The weak wont at first, which is bad news for me and the wife. Chronic medical conditions that require medicine to live won't be kind to us. But the hardier folks will. Real preppers will do better than others, the "fake" or wanna be preppers will live until the 6 months to a year of food they stored is gone... People that can raise there own animals and grow their own crops (especialy hydroponically) will do ok for a longer time.

I think as a species we will adapt, but our population will certainly take a large hit. Especially if this happens quick.

Since we are looking at living on Mars, the Earth isn't going to get that bad, that quick unless things continue to worsen at a geometric rate.
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Can I return some days for a refund?


Sorry no refund allowed
Quoting 138. Kenfa03:

So you are preparing to move to the mountains?


I already moved from the flat lands of Florida to the Mountains of Alaska...
Great, another sweater.

Quoting 129. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Each day is but a gift treat it as such

Novel solar absorber to improve efficiency of concentrating solar power technology
Summary:
Researchers have discovered a novel way to significantly increase the amount of sunlight that a solar absorber can convert into heat. By converting more of the solar energy that reaches Earth’s surface into heat in a low-cost way, the solar absorber can help make sustainable technologies that rely on solar heat, like solar thermal technologies, more efficient and affordable.

Link
Quoting 112. DeepSeaRising:



Best served on a platter cold or in this case extremely hot. "They" must really not care at all how history will remember them. Money and power is just that intoxicating, even if it costs your grandchildren their future.


Evil, plain and simple.
We are in Boston for a relative's graduation and since it was held outside we had to wear blankets and heavy sweaters.The wind was blowing like mad all day.
Quoting 140. Tazmanian:



Sorry no refund allowed


Can I re-gift them? then again . . .

Quoting 143. Grothar:



T-wave train Looking good I'm expecting at least a few good storms in the tropical Atlantic this year
Quoting 130. daddyjames:



Can I return some days for a refund?


All sales are final.
Quoting 149. Dakster:



All sales are final.


{sigh} but some of them don't fit me very well . . . .
Quoting 104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



faster and faster


Here's a close look at the Chukchi Sea:



Note that since Sea ice extent is defined as 15% ice coverage, most of that broken up area isi ncluded as ice covered.
Quoting 150. daddyjames:



{sigh} but some of them don't fit me very well . . . .


I have dozens in that category too. I wish I could exchange them too.
Cool, overcast with a high of 60° here in Acme, Wa. Radar is showing snow falling on all 3 of Washington's highest peaks, Mt. Ranier, Mt. Adams, and Mt. Baker, no rain here yet hopefully some will fall the garden could use it.
56F in Vancouver, WA; cool and overcast.

Oh wonderful. La Nina always means snowfall starting In late December and ice storms in January and even MORE rain than we normally get here in the Pacific Northwest.

Great-now I will have to look at replacing windshields as WADOT and ODOT use sand on the roads, and sometimes that "sand" is really small rocks. Plus more stupid drivers who do not know how to drive in snow (as it rarely snows in the cities here) and media that panics when more than 1/2" falls.
This entire idea we made through climate loop holes, doesn't mean 7.4 billion of us are skate on to the "other side".
Quoting 152. RobertWC:



I think you missed where the cycle thing came in but that's ok
Quoting 148. MrTornadochase:


T-wave train Looking good I'm expecting at least a few good storms in the tropical Atlantic this year


They seem to be lining up early this year. Usually one sees this a little later into the season.
Quoting 158. Grothar:



They seem to be lining up early this year. Usually one sees this a little later into the season.
ya about 6 weeks
late mid july is normal time frame for line ups
Quoting 152. RobertWC:






kinda crossing the line there - we may disagree with one another, but do so respectfully.
Quoting 74. jholmestyle:



I dunno, it was hot for two days out here on "the dry side". Just before that it's been cold, too cold to be on the lake unless your in gear to go fishing. Even when it was hot, it still got down into the mid 50's at night. Aside from a warm and dry late march to early april, the weather has been pretty much perfect.


To be fair, I was only in Eastern, WA for the two days it was hot. But for those two days, it was abnormally hot. In fact, it broke the daily record in several locations.

28
SXUS76 KOTX 070828 AAC
REROTX

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE, WA
127 AM PDT TUE JUN 7 2016

...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE 6TH...

SITE HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD RECORDS STARTED
SPOKANE INTL, WA 96 93 (1970) 1881
LEWISTON, ID 100 TIED 100 (1926) 1881
WENATCHEE, WA 101 97 (1970) 1959
EPHRATA, WA 101 98 (1970) 1949

I can speak to the fact that Seattle had record heat twice in April, once in May and now again in June. The pattern of a strong high parked over the west is getting old. Also, to be fair, In between each heat wave the weather has been lovely. I'm very pleased to see the forecast of clouds and a chance of rain each day through Sunday. I was so excited to be back home today and put on my long sleeves and fleece leggings.
Quoting 158. Grothar:



They seem to be lining up early this year. Usually one sees this a little later into the season.


this is an old image waiting for next 3hr update will post again I think 1030 it comes out but u can see the lining up

So what effect will la nina have on the weather in the US?
Quoting 143. Grothar:




Hmmm. Starting to climb a bit over that 10 degree latitude too.
Swirl in the Caribbean

Quoting 163. hairylures:

So what effect will la nina have on the weather in the US?










Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean

<
now we just got to get it too a swirling blob
Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean




Chance it could go subtropical?
Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean



Upper level low?
If you've missed something here's a short read to catch up :
May's Global Disasters Generate $7 Billion in Claims: Aon
By Lisa Howard, Claims Journal - June 9, 2016.

I see we have a fierce Invest (92B) in the Bay of Bengal, but it's almost over land now.
93W took its time to develop and may never take-off, but it looks like it wants to persevere some more in its struggle to become a real cyclone. GFS doesn't believe in it, I don't know what the other models say but I guess they also lack real enthusiasm about it.
Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean




Yep, this might be the next one for the NHC to watch.
Quoting 169. daddyjames


Moderate windshear, but these ULL often happen this time of year. they don't mean much. Blobmonitor showing unfavorable conditions.
Quoting 173. birdsrock2016:



Yep, this might be the next one for the NHC to watch.


They've already asked me, and I told them not to worry just yet. :)
Quoting 116. Kenfa03:

Any predictions on how long we have as a race?


Well, with FB, Twitter and the like eroding the brains of the human race, eh.....

Add "safe spaces", the inability of today's youth to cope with anything as harmless as a fart and the fact that the human race wakes DAILY, looking for something to be offended by, I'd say, not long.
Quoting 170. Grothar:




Funny, this last El Nino - even though it was particularly strong - was more of a hybrid between the two typical patterns . . . .
Quoting 176. nash36:



Well, with FB, Twitter and the like eroding the brains of the human race, eh.....

Add "safe spaces", the inability of today's youth to cope with anything as harmless as a fart and the fact that the human race wakes DAILY, looking for something to be offended by, I'd say, not long.


I take offense to that characterization, farts are not that harmless.


P.S. If Taz comes on, tell him I saw it first:):)
Quoting 164. SunnyDaysFla:



Hmmm. Starting to climb a bit over that 10 degree latitude too.


They look pretty good on radar. We'll have to watch these in July when the Saharan dust and wind shear lets up.
Quoting 178. daddyjames:



I take offense to that characterization, farts are not that harmless.


Lol. True that.

If you can peel varnish off of a wall locker, time to go to the doctor. Definitely not for sharing with the general public:-)
Quoting 178. daddyjames:



I take offense to that characterization, farts are not that harmless.

Especially old ones.
Quoting 181. nash36:



Lol. True that.

If you can peel varnish off of a wall locker, time to go to the doctor. Definitely not for sharing with the general public:-)


Unfortunately, I am horribly lactose intolerant - so I speak from personal experience . . . there are times I have knocked myself out.

(Eeewwww, that's so gross!]
Good night boys and girls. I have to take my pills which takes about an hour now.

May all your swirls be little ones, and all your blobs be.....whatever!

Natti, Natti.
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Good night boys and girls. I have to take my pills which takes about an hour now.

May all your swirls be little ones, and all your blobs be.....whatever!

Natti, Natti.


Good night. Maybe that "spinning thing" ends up getting the yellow crayon tomorrow, LOL
Quoting 184. Grothar:

Good night boys and girls. I have to take my pills which takes about an hour now.

May all your swirls be little ones, and all your blobs be.....whatever!

Natti, Natti.


Don't take the little blue one, that will keep you up all night.

Of course I am talking about Aleve.

Quoting 143. Grothar:



Maybe we could see a storm in the MDR in July. It has happened numerous times.




The precipitation pattern from January-March 2016 does appear to be a hybrid of the expected preciptation patterns from El Niño and La Niña.
Question is how is SAL this year?
Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean



Nothing at the surface though. Link
Rapidscat
Quoting 191. gator23:


Nothing at the surface though. Link

might work its way down
Quoting 179. Grothar:



P.S. If Taz comes on, tell him I saw it first:):)


now now you no better then that i saw it 1st you saw it 2nd
Quoting 188. HurricaneFan:


Maybe we could see a storm in the MDR in July. It has happened numerous times.

Chantal and Dorian 2013 comes to mind.
Quoting 195. tiggerhurricanes2001:


Chantal and Dorian 2013 comes to mind.

There have also been some stronger storms out there in July, like Bertha 08, which peaked as a category 3.





i say we need to watch the Caribbean and the windward islands area wind shear is vary light in the area wind shear is all so vary light this about in the caribbean with wind shear 10 too 20kt with a few area of 30kt of shear i say with wind shear this low for so early in the season i say some one luck could be running out this could be the year with vary low wind shear for most of the time so we could be seeing major hurricanes lot more this year then in past years this take a look at all the low wind shear on the wind shear map DOOM i say
Quoting 197. Tazmanian:






i say we need to watch the Caribbean and the windward islands area wind shear is vary light in the area wind shear is all so vary light this about in the caribbean with wind shear 10 too 20kt with a few area of 30kt of shear i say with wind shear this low for so early in the season i say some one luck could be running out

Shear seems to be decreasing to its lowest levels in several years.
Quoting 198. HurricaneFan:


Shear seems to be decreasing to its lowest levels in several years.


i all so noted that wind shear in the E PAC are up so the E PAC is closed for right now
i have not seen that kind of low wind shear on that map in a vary long long time
Quoting 25. Dakster:



That's is what I thought I remembered... That stinks for you in SoCal. That means you never busted the drought.


Far from it. Even here from NorCal it's still very much in drought.
with big time wave coming off the coast of Africa wind shear is vary light where the waves are coming off



all so little too no africa dust in the area that the waves are coming of and boy the T waves are big sizes

203. IDTH
Quoting 165. Grothar:

Swirl in the Caribbean



Upper low weakening.
92B's adventures in the Bay of Bengal : "That's a small sea, I will try but... Damn, I couldn't make it."

Just remember Joaquin formed from an upper low just like that last year.
Quoting 121. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

there will always be humans we have been reduced too a couple of 100,000 a few times global wise in our history it will happen again its just a cycle

Average evolutionary survival time of mammals is about five million years. There is no reason at all to believe humanity will even remotely achieve this. And we know why and we can see it happening.
frogs are croaking. more rain forecasted in e cen fl.?
208. MahFL
Quoting 164. SunnyDaysFla:



Hmmm. Starting to climb a bit over that 10 degree latitude too.


I better buy some water...
by the time this governor of ours steps down all the water near shore florida will be brown. incredible resource gone.
EEEEH... Oh my *** I think I just saw the GHOST of an old cyclone :

bombombom *heart racing*
Good Morning; the CIMSS site is temporarily down so I can't post the upper level charts but as noted in the earlier am, that swirl south of Cuba is an upper level low: at least something to get your heart going.......



But here is the 24 hour surface chart forecast for the Caribbean:



The typical June doldrums for the Atlantic Basin and the Conus forecast for today:



The US area of interest today is the potential for severe weather in Montana; here is the SPC outlook for enhanced storms and the position of the jet; the polar jet is pushing into those parts today:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Fri Jun 10 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 10 2016 - 12Z Sun Jun 12 2016

...Heat and humidity returns to the eastern states this weekend...

...Severe thunderstorms possible for the northern High Plains and across
the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast...



Enhanced risk of severe weather for northern plains for Saturday. Moisture-rich flow from the southeast and dew points well into the 60's contributing to high instability. Flash flooding, hail, possible tornadoes.



Quoting 128. daddyjames:



That's The Amazing Race.


Fudge
Quoting 126. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

not till we reach 6 degrees and we have already surpassed that in the arctic just not globally yet then rapid methane release occurs temps will soar 11 to 14 degrees warmer globally then its done just like dinner piping hot ready to serve


Well, technically we are already in an extinction event, but that has accelerated recently. As the planet changes, species that can't cope die off. Usually that happens over thousands of years, but we humans are an impatient bunch.

It's a conspiracy. Those lazy evolutionary scientists are just tired of having to keep track of all these life forms, so they have globally banded together to wipe out all new species they find so they don't have to write about them. /snark
Nothing expected in the next 5 days. Very normal for June.


Another rainy morning across S.W. Florida.
We really haven't had a chance to dry out since before T.S. Colin.

Past 24 hours
3.8" North Fort Myers
2.04" Southwest Regional Airport
.95" Page Field
1.12" Lehigh Acres

CIMSS went up; here is the ULL South of Cuba and relative shear across the basin today:
ULL:





Quoting 119. Grothar:



remember how many there were last year, but luckily just fizzled??


This year will have no where near the levels of wind shear as last season and the MDR has above average SSTs. I don't think we'll be so lucky this year.
Quoting 210. 999Ai2016:

EEEEH... Oh my *** I think I just saw the GHOST of an old cyclone :

bombombom *heart racing*


Wilma or Felix anyone?
And yet NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past.

The findings are the result of a new monitoring technique, developed by oceanographer Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., using measurements from ocean-observing satellites and profiling floats. The findings are reported in the March 25 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.


Note that this was done using actual measurements and not proxies...

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlanti c20100325.html

Quoting 49. weathermanwannabe:

This tremendous discharge of fresh water moves south along either side of Greenland into the North Atlantic where it is blocked from further southward movement by the northward flow of the Gulf Stream. Because fresh water is less dense than salt water, it floats on the surface and basically acts like a plug in the stream. The density variation between the two water masses keeps them from mixing very well, so the plug persists.


Interesting shear feature in the Central Atlantic is the very low shear just to the East of the Lesser Antilles; just a temporary lull but if this type of shear window is available in that region during the peak of the Cape Verde wave season, this may be the year that we see an actual hurricane enter the Caribbean basin again after several seasons without one (entering as a hurricane into the Lesser Antilles from the Central Atlantic):





GFS and CMC agreeing on a system off the coast of the Carolinas.
Quoting 223. quanta:

And yet NASA measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, part of the global ocean conveyor belt that helps regulate climate around the North Atlantic, show no significant slowing over the past 15 years. The data suggest the circulation may have even sped up slightly in the recent past.

The findings are the result of a new monitoring technique, developed by oceanographer Josh Willis of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., using measurements from ocean-observing satellites and profiling floats. The findings are reported in the March 25 issue of Geophysical Research Letters.


Note that this was done using actual measurements and not proxies...

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/atlanti c20100325.html

Abrupt Atlantic Ocean Changes May Have Been Natural
John Upton, Climate Central - May 23.
I think this article states the facts and opinions of the research community about this topic in a fair way, and it's quite recent.

And there's always one of my favorites of climate science, that comes to mind when the topic resurfaces : Wally was right : Predictive ability of the North Atlantic "Conveyor belt" hypothesis for abrupt climate change
Lots of waves headed our way over the next few months from the look of things in Africa:





And finally, the waters to the West of Peru continue to cool down (towards La Nina) at a fairly rapid clip:



Quoting 225. Famoguy1234:



GFS and CMC agreeing on a system off the coast of the Carolinas.

ECMWF has also showed something trying to develop there.

Quoting 227. weathermanwannabe:

Lots of waves headed our way over the next few months from the look of things in Africa:








Put some dents in the SAL
The Atlantic "cold blob" has weakened a lot since early spring:


Still waiting on the release of the map for May but the blob was still a significant SST departure for April 2016;




I'm just S.E. of Fort Myers and it's been raining like crazy.
I've picked up a just over 2" in the last hour or so.
Quoting 31. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.


G'day.

The mystery of the second blog post has been solved. It was an attempted coup d'etat by Steve Gregory! Some internecine rivalry bubbling up to the surface of WU? The plot thickens . . .

HEAT ‘SURGES’ TO HIGHLIGHT SUMMER / JASON UPDATED
By: Steve Gregory , 7:17 PM GMT on June 09, 2016

Friday Morning in NOLA.......

Summer is close ya hear?

Quoting 115. 999Ai2016:


New Video: Climate and Hurricanes 2016 - June 9, 2016

from Climate Denial Crock of the Week with Peter Sinclair.
"As the 2016 hurricane season gets underway in the northern hemisphere, the new "This is Not Cool" video features interview footage shot in December with Kerry Emanuel, one of the most widely quoted and well known hurricane experts in the world.
Nutshell: A warmer climate is expected to elevate the natural "speed limit" on hurricane/Tropical Cyclone wind speeds, and accompanying storm surge and destructiveness. We may already be seeing this play out.
Also appearing are scientists Kevin Trenberth, Jeff Masters, Michael Mann, Josh Willis, and the Weather Underground's crack journo Bob Henson."







Quoting 231. HurricaneFan:

The Atlantic "cold blob" has weakened a lot since early spring:




I see no weakening at all. The blob become permanent got much better outlined by variations in the greater North Atlantic, that is all. It does seem to move around a bit though.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.UPDATE...
As of 1005 AM EDT...Current forecast remains largely on track,
with another wet day expected across much of the region, similar
to what has been experienced over the past couple of days. Minor
updates were made to account for the latest trends in observations
and near term mesoscale model guidance.

At the surface, two boundaries are in vicinity of south Florida
this morning. The first is the remnant quasi-stationary boundary
from Tropical Storm Colin draped over central Florida. The second
boundary is an outflow boundary located just off the southeast
Florida coast, likely caused from yesterday`s convection. These
two boundaries will be the focus for additional convective
development later this morning and into the afternoon hours, which
will feature scattered to numerous showers and embedded scattered
thunderstorms likely spreading across a good portion of the east
coast metro areas this afternoon also.

The latest HRRRx and other local and regional mesoscale guidance
continue to indicate two primary areas of convective
initiation...with one location across Collier...Hendry and
Everglades counties and the second across southern Miami-Dade
county in vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary. Further
supporting development will be differential heating boundaries,
which may help enhance convection in the east coast metro area
early this afternoon.

The primary threat with today`s showers and thunderstorms will be
heavy rainfall, which will have the potential to cause flooding
in poor drainage and urban areas. Combined PWAT values off the
KMFL 12z observed sounding and satellite derived data were 2.2
inches associated with a deep tropical plume extending into the
western Pacific based on water vapor imagery...which is above the
90th percentile in terms of available moisture for early June.
With surface dewpoints well into the 70s...there is definitely
plenty of moisture to work with today. Additionally, any
thunderstorm that does form will be very efficient at warm rain
processes, with high freezing levels above 16 kft, low LCLs,
plenty of moisture through the column, and sufficient instability
of 2500-3000 J/kg.

A secondary threat today will be the potential for waterspouts
over the Atlantic waters along the aforementioned boundary given
wind profiles are somewhat favorable. Hail and winds not much of
a concern at this time. However, precipitation loading in thunderstorm
updrafts may still support some gusty winds...generally below 40
mph although would not be surprise if one or two were to exceed
that threshold.

High temperatures look to top out in the mid and upper 80s for
most areas, with a few 90-92 degree readings for southwestern
areas that see the most sunshine this morning. Combined with the
muggy airmass in place, heat indices will be close to 100 degrees
for most areas, with some 100-103 degree readings possible across
interior areas.
Combined PWAT values off the
KMFL 12z observed sounding and satellite derived data were 2.2
inches associated with a deep tropical plume extending into the
western Pacific based on water vapor imagery...which is above the
90th percentile in terms of available moisture for early June.
With surface dewpoints well into the 70s...there is definitely
plenty of moisture to work with today.


Globally we are seeing more record PWATS in soundings than ever before. That is from the Burning of Fossil Fuels to run our societies. The CO2 increase that warms the atmosphere also increases the Global Water Vapor..which is the root cause of all these record PWATS.
Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA / RUSKIN FL
1113 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

FLC071-101645-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0028.160610T1513Z-160610T1645Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LEE FL-
1113 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1112 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL CAUSE
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS...BONITA SPRINGS AND LEHIGH ACRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS
WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 2632 8190 2640 8199 2652 8203 2676 8213
2677 8157 2642 8156 2642 8166 2632 8166
2631 8182 2633 8182 2633 8185 2631 8188

$$
NOAH
Quoting 170. Grothar:




I doubt this years La Nina will perform according to expectation.
Last day of school today in Lee County. It's an early dismissal day for the kids. Perfect timing with the flooding rainfall.


Getting some nasty thunderstorms where I work uptown in NOLA. Big rumbles!
Sea Breeze kicking off these local Boomers,

Still raining heavily S.E. of Fort Myers. Radar showing 2.5" this morning so far.
Quoting 243. Patrap:

Sea Breeze kicking off these local Boomers,


How you say it Pat in Nola! Summertime baby!
S.E. Florida get ready for a very rainy day. All the rain we're having over here in S.W. Florida is slowly working its way over to the East Coast.
Very good setup for and active Atlantic.
Quoting 240. weatherbro:



I doubt this years La Nina will perform according to expectation.

I wouldn't be suprised If SO Cal gets the big rains it was forecast to get last year with the way weather have been behaving lately
Quoting 171. SunnyDaysFla:

Upper level low?
Good observation and interpretation - the Nullschool wind map shows a very strong closed circulation at 250mb (34,000'), but no closed circulation at heights below that.
Quoting 245. bigwes6844:

How you say it Pat in Nola! Summertime baby!


Sno Balls and Creole Creamery Ice Cream..u bet



is the rapid transition to La Nina starting to affect the the conditions in the tropical atlantic. what i am seeing is indicative of a more active season.
Quoting 249. Xulonn:

Good observation and interpretation - the Nullschool wind map shows a very strong closed circulation at 250mb (34,000'), but no closed circulation at heights below that.

So, this is a disturbance that is of the"wannabe" kind that will never become one, LOL .
From the "Who Says Science Can't Be Fun?" Department:

Who's the best-equipped superhero? Student research settles 'superpower showdown'


Students at the University of Leicester have been using simple calculations to explain the feasibility of the powers behind of some of the most prominent comic book superheroes known around the world.

The students presented their findings in a series of short articles for the Journal of Interdisciplinary Science Topics and the Journal of Physics Special Topics, two peer-reviewed student journals run by the University's Centre for Interdisciplinary Science and Department of Physics and Astronomy. The student-run journals are designed to give students practical experience of writing, editing, publishing and reviewing scientific papers.
Quoting 240. weatherbro:

I doubt this years La Nina will perform according to expectation.
And the reasoning behind your not believing the world's best meteorologists and climatologists is...?

Edit" It's o.k. to post a "gut feeling" but I was curious as to whether or not there is logic and reasoning behind your assessment of the La Nina episode that is developing.
Quoting 252. birdsrock2016:


So, this is a disturbance that is of the"wannabe" kind that will never become one, LOL .


No, it simple demonstrates that it is strictly an Upper Level Low.
Quoting 222. Famoguy1234:



Wilma or Felix anyone?


Ghost of Karen '07.
Quoting 255. daddyjames:



No, it simple demonstrates that it is strictly an Upper Level Low.


I've heard that term thrown around quite a bit. What are the different types of lows? I'm getting confused =)
Quoting 248. MrTornadochase:


I wouldn't be suprised If SO Cal gets the big rains it was forecast to get last year with the way weather have been behaving lately


I'm rather curious about that myself. Nothing here feels predictable.

In other news, Sunday's weather over the Sierras stands to produce some snow above 9000'. The worry is for long-range hikers and climbers who didn't prepare for this possible shift in conditions.

Our water levels are good, our irrigation percentages through TCID are good, last year's dry though left lots of gopher activity uninhibited - we've had two irrigations so far, and each time I've had to deal with a gopher geyser in the midst of our driveway and our larger pigpen. The pigs don't mind so much, but I'm really not happy with the muddy drive when we should be more conservative with our supply. Even if it does mostly just sink back into the water table, which is getting a good, healthy recharge.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 256. CybrTeddy:



Ghost of Karen '07.


I think it's the ghost of Wilma.
263. vis0
Quoting 32. EmsiNasklug:



... and then removed it. What went wrong there?


Dr. Masters/Henson entry #3330 is up the one linked in message #259 is OKAY!!  THIS WAS TO Dr. Masters entery3329 that was ~removed? as on the "heat surge and update on JA...", .i think Mr.  Gregorys update crossed wires? i auto-record ~all WxU posts so have errors too, shhh my secret.

As for how nino nina work (aquak9 might say :: SADLY in a sweat factories)  As to atmospheric Nino.Nina don't forget my clues on how the magnetic "flow" causes certain sounds to interact with ocean/atmospheric links.  2 refresher statements for my deleted blogbytes,  and since Nino is more ethereal, hence its harder to understand till the science i call "Galacsics" is figured out.

1) Remember magnets work more or less efficiently as to their temperatures (known fact) , so what happens when weather become too warm or too cool?  .. it changes as to how this mag flow acts as trigger switches.

2) though the "magflow" is slow (VERY!!!) the acute and/or** obtuse angle is fast forwarded via "sound/resonances".

These flows can have several "angles" on one flow as if "and", "nand", "nor", "or" gates ... "etc" "cte".

again do not believe what i just typed, they're from my nutty 1970s theories/thesis, since most told me i'm crazy (thus ignored by so many)  then that i'm crazy must be true.
BUT if as one studies nature and one sees some weird magnetic influence via sounds come back and refresh your thoughts with these nutty theories.

back2 the real world.
264. IDTH
Quoting 225. Famoguy1234:



GFS and CMC agreeing on a system off the coast of the Carolinas.

That looks to be a hot spot for development this year. Especially with the way above average SST's off the coast.
A non-expert on-the-ground report re: El Nino switching to La Nina: unusual weather in Hawaii per a relative who has been staying there for the last month. Cooler and rainier than usual - downpours in the afternoon, "clear and crisp" nights and mornings [not sure what the definition of "crisp" would be in Hawaii]. She says the locals are "befuddled." Here in the Pacific NW we had an unusually hot spell at the beginning of the month, now cooler and rainier than it's been in June for a while.