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El Niño is done; Haiti at risk of heavy rains next week; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2010

El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling a significant 0.65°C in just one month. Temperatures in the region are now in the "neutral" range, just 0.18°C above average, and well below the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event, in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Six of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season, and I expect more models will jump on the La Niña bandwagon when the May data updates later this week. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity. La Niña conditions typically cause cool and wet conditions over the Caribbean in summer, but do not have much of an impact on U.S. temperatures or precipitation.


Figure 1. Oil spill edge over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, May 19, as seen from NASA's M ODIS instrument. Note that a band of cumulus clouds formed along the edge of the oil spill. I theorize this is because the low level wind flow out of the southeast moves faster over the oil, since the oil suppresses wave action. As the winds cross the spill boundary into rougher, clean water, they slow down, forcing the air to pile up and create updrafts that then spawn cumulus clouds. See my post on what oil might do to a hurricane for more information on how oil reduces wave action.

Oil spill update
Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have again foiled satellite imaging of the extent of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, though through breaks in the clouds it appears that a significant amount of the oil that was pulled southwards towards the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. However, some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has at most "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. See my post yesterday for answers to many of the common questions I get about the spill.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU


Figure 2. Precipitation forecast from today's 8am EDT run of the NAVY NOGAPS model, valid 7 days from now. Precipitation amounts in excess of 70 mm (2.8") in 12 hours are predicted over Haiti, due to a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the GFS and NOGAPS models over the past few days have consistently been predicting an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 5 - 7 days from now, and I expect that a tropical disturbance with heavy rains will develop in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the NOGAPS model shows heavy rains in excess of six inches impacting Haiti Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing a serious emergency with high loss of life in earthquake-shattered Haiti, and all interests in that nation should closely monitor the situation over the coming week. It is too early to speculate on the possibility of the disturbance becoming a tropical depression. The wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season, have more information on this potential development, plus the possible development of a subtropical storm between Florida and Bermuda next week.

Major severe weather outbreak over Oklahoma expected tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of Oklahoma in its High Risk region for severe weather today, warning that "The setup appears most favorable for large, relatively slow moving intense storms with large hail. A couple strong tornadoes also may occur."

I'll be back with a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

There's no secret to balance. You just have to feel the waves.


Darwi Odrade
Quoting PcolaDan:


So is arsenic, carbon monoxide, strychnine, and snake venom. I don't suggest ingesting any of it though. And oh yea SO2 comes from the earth too. This is a serious issue, how serious we really don't know yet. And yes there will be some panic and bad information. But there is a whole state whose shores could potentially be affected. If it was a regular thing happening, well, tourism wouldn't be so big here then. But it's not normal and lives have been disrupted and jobs already in jeopardy. We need to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Dis is a good un.
Hey Pat,

You seem different this year, a study in introspection perhaps ?.
Quoting Patrap:
No matter how exotic human civilization becomes, no matter the developments of life and society nor the complexity of the machine/human interface, there always come interludes of lonely power when the course of humankind, depends upon the relatively simple actions of single individuals.


Ok, you asked for it, but it is different this time :P

The Singularity
Quoting kmanislander:
Hey Pat,

You seem different this year, a study in introspection perhaps ?.


Naw..I just Like the Dune quote wiki page..LOL
Quoting Patrap:


Naw..I just Like the Dune quote wiki page..LOL


Ah, there we go. I feel much better now LOL
Quoting tomas5tex:


FYI:

In a paper presented at the 2000 Ocean Sciences Meeting in San Antonio, Texas, and titled Estimates of Total Hydrocarbon Seepage into the Gulf of Mexico Based on Satellite Remote Sensing Images, one researcher estimated that 500,000 barrels of oil seep into the Gulf each year, twice the result of the Exxon Valdez spill.

Thats less than 1500 gal per day.
Sounds low, actually, when you think about it. In the entire GOM.
I remember reading the first Dune novels and wondering what the spice would be like. Of course, I was about 15 then LOL
The Fremen have a saying: every faintly evil thought must be put aside immediately before it takes root.
Quoting kmanislander:
I remember reading the first Dune novels and wondering what the spice would be like. Of course, I was about 15 then LOL


The Pon-fire years were kinda experimental here in NOLA as well..

the 70's were phun.
Thanks for the explanation Weather456. I'll batten down the hatches.
444 hercj "Has everyone forgotten that oil comes from the earth. It is a NATURAL substance."

So are box jellyfish, but I wouldn't recommend flying DownUnder to get into liplock with one.
Mother Nature has her calderon a brewing.

Here is something else i found concerning natural seepage of oil in the Gulf.

Link
Quoting DEKRE:

You are perfectly right, I should have said : Nothing forms tar balls in 5 days.
U.S.41 in S.W. Florida can form tar balls in 5 hours during the summer. Heavy rain washes all the dirt from underneath the sides of the highway, it gets bloody hot and we get tarballs.
Quoting Patrap:


The Pon-fire years were kinda experimental here in NOLA as well..

the 70's were phun.
yeah man, G.I.Joe with the Kung FU grip
post 516. That article says that an estimated 150,000 TONS of oil seep into the GOM each year.
This sounds like plenty, but the amount of water in the GOM is probably 150,000 to the power of 150,000. Tons.
I'm out for tonight folks. Have a good one.
K Man...good to see you. i'm getting real tired of the MODELCASTERS.... Ban me, but until we have a storm...or depression...wish casting is the rule.
Quoting RitaRefugee:
K Man...good to see you. i'm getting real tired of the MODELCASTERS.... Ban me, but until we have a storm...or depression...wish casting is the rule.


No one says you have to read what anyone says

and sorry I dont see the equation here


Looking at forecast models = wish-casting?

Not even close, if they weren't meant to be used as a tool for discussions, than they wouldn't exist at all.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory NUMBER TWENTY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM LAILA (BOB01-2010)
5:30 AM IST May 20 2010
====================================

Subject: Severe Cyclonic Storm LAILA over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal

Cyclone Warning (Red message).

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Laila over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northward and lays near 15.0N 81.0E, or 120 kms northeast of Nellore, 100 kms southeast of Ongole, and 120 kms south of Machilipatnam.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with a central pressure 986 hPa. The state of the sea is very high around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates banding pattern of the system. The intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal between 11.5N to 17.0N west of 83.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is between -80 to -90C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10-20 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N. System is under the influence of anticyclonic circulation located to the northeast. Shear tendency over the past 24 hours is negative to the north of the system.

Considering all the above and numerical weather prediction model guidance, the system is likely to move in a northwesterly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Kavali and Kakinada, close to Machilipatnam this afternoon. The system is showing signs of weakening due to increase wind shear and land interaction.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 17.5N 82.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 19.5N 85.0E - 25 knots (Depression)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

At 0:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB01-2010 located over southwest Arabian Sea of Somalia coast remained practically stationary and lays centered near 11.5N 53.0E, or 200 kms of Alula, Somalia. It is likely to intensify further and move in a northwesterly direction towards Gulf of Aden.

Convective clouds in association with the system has organized during the past 12 hours. The dvorak intensity is T2.0. 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots. Broken intense to very intense convection is seen over west Arabian Sea between 9.0 to 15.0N and west of 59.0E in association with the system.
It doesn't take but eyes to see something's not quite right in the SW Atl.
Quoting Ossqss:


No, I will not look :)



Hey it's scooby-doo
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Hey it's scooby-doo
lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Hey it's scooby-doo
You've got mail.
101...models are what MIGHT happen. I just get aggravated when sheeple get all fired up about computer models with no reality about what REALLY happens. Get all agged at me as you will, but until NHC has an advisory, you can predict all you want.
457 CosmicEvents "There's something that bothers me about this 'junk shot' attempt at plugging up the well with mud, golf balls and cement. If something so simple works, great, but the question then becomes, why wasn't this simple technique the first quick attempt 2 weeks ago?"

1) They had to reconnect the shutdown lines in order to pump stuff through into the BreakoutPreventer.

2) As well as golfballs, the junk shot woulda consisted of ball bearings, chunks of rubber, and other relatively large chunks of debris.

3) And as they were doing the reconnections, they ran simulations which indicated that the junk had too high a probability of making things worse to be worth risking.

4) The plan chosen instead uses just mud (to counteract the pressure down to a workable level) then mud&cement (to initiate sealing by getting curing cement lumps stuck in the BoP flow line) then cement (to plug the well).
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101...models are what MIGHT happen. I just get aggravated when sheeple get all fired up about computer models with no reality about what REALLY happens. Get all agged at me as you will, but until NHC has an advisory, you can predict all you want.
Well when you got a consensus consisting of...

-UKMET
-GFS
-ECMWF
-CMC
-NOGAPS

And a couple more. Chances are that we will get a system. Plus you have had consistency for about 5 days and great time-line progression. As a matter a fact there are a lot of reasons why you should get fired up.
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101...models are what MIGHT happen. I just get aggravated when sheeple get all fired up about computer models with no reality about what REALLY happens. Get all agged at me as you will, but until NHC has an advisory, you can predict all you want.


so basically get rid of all the great discussion about the possibilities that goes on around here? Part of what makes the tropics so interesting is looking into what might happen, if we all just blindly followed the NHC and its advisories and never posted anything before that, this would be a VERY boring place.

Again just because people talk of the forecast models and their possibilities, does not in any way make them wish casters; that is an absurd assumption actually considering no one has made predictions as to what kinds of systems we will have and where they would affect. I have seen none of that today.
Folks, we can look at all the stats in the world on oil and its impact on our planet. That means squat right now. Why have we not fixed this problem in the Gulf of Mexico? I know we have the ability, so why has it not been fixed? Are we raising the stakes with the use of emulsifiers padding the visible impact ? It does not make sense. Think about it...... out.....
I'll get fired up when we have a storm...especially when it's headed toward the northern Gulf Coast...i'm not ragging on anyone, but everytime i hear someone saying or implying that they are "wanting" a storm, it tell me they haven't been in one and have had to tell their kids...."you're home is gone and we're going to live in a FEMA trailer for a year or two"....sorry...I'm pissed.
Again another horrible assumption

You cant make the jump to saying that because people like to track storms that they do not care if one hit them or anyone else

That is completely unfair
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Again another horrible assumption

You cant make the jump to saying that because people like to track storms that they do not care if one hit them or anyone else

That is completely unfair
Yeah I agree.
May 19, 2010
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101, apparently you have never been through a hurricane. All I'm saying is that I appreciate the models, and I appreciate the predictions, but I HATE the jerks who HOPE for a "busy" season, or those morons who "wish" for a landfall. I'm not being an ass, all I'm saying it that I wish all hurricanes would dissipate the heat of the earth somewhere besides on land. Period.


Lived in Florida for 20 years, I have seen many storms and lost property in several

Your assumptions tell me a lot about you
I posted a new blog, Link

Please feel free to check it out. Well I've got to go, have a blessed evening!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You've got mail.


You've got mail as well
oh and one last thing Refugee

your original comment that started this thing said absolutely nothing about those who wish for landfalls, it was completely targeted at those who look at forecast models

looks like you played a great game of telephone with yourself; started by arguing one thing and ended arguing something totally different.


Many of us on here are fascinated with tropical systems, how they form, what kind of impacts that they have. We like being able to have a place to discuss tropical systems and the possibilities and I bet not one of us wishes a storm on anyone.

You need to get that assumption out of your mind.
Hi everyone

Do you think the NAM is an accurate model regarding rainfall potential?
101. I wasn't picking a fight, all I was saying was that those individuals who like to "wish" have never been through, or lost, anything are more likely to "wishcast" or "predict" an apocolyptacane...I have no assumptions, I'm just in a foul mood; my generator needs massive repairs and I'm only five years gone from Rita. Forgive me if I'm a bit abrupt with the idiots. I'm not referring to those of (us) who pay attention to the possible reality.
Quoting Ossqss:
Folks, we can look at all the stats in the world on oil and its impact on our planet. That means squat right now. Why have we not fixed this problem in the Gulf of Mexico? I know we have the ability, so why has it not been fixed? Are we raising the stakes with the use of emulsifiers padding the visible impact ? It does not make sense. Think about it...... out.....

I see your point. But I think that you are not giving credit to a couple of things--
-the leaking pipes are from cracks made when an entire platform sank onto them
-the problem is 5000 feet underwater.
-monitoring the pressure, the state of the BOP, the state of the pipe is a big problem
-there is apparently a real chance that things could get a lot worse, if they screw-up.
I am not trying to justify the actions of BP. But I know that they have some of the best minds in the world working on the thing, with some pretty good incentives to get it fixed. The incentives include the bad PR, the costs (drilling 2 new wells, cleanup, claims, shareholders must be up their rears etc) .
They have a real problem in an environment that is fighting back.
The leak is terrible for the environment (wherever the oil ends up), and for that my heart bleeds.
But I dont agree that they are not doing everything that they possibly can think of to stop it.
It's bad, man.
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101. I wasn't picking a fight, all I was saying was that those individuals who like to "wish" have never been through, or lost, anything are more likely to "wishcast" or "predict" an apocolyptacane...I have no assumptions, I'm just in a foul mood; my generator needs massive repairs and I'm only five years gone from Rita. Forgive me if I'm a bit abrupt with the idiots. I'm not referring to those of (us) who pay attention to the possible reality.


Ok then and I am sorry for whatever you have lost in the past and do not wish you to go through a hurricane ever again.

I think many feel the part of the intrigue of these systems is the formative stages, or even watching the models and looking at the possibilities.
I personally would like to see the subtropical storm develop, but as for the Haitian one... I could live without.
550. JLPR
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101, apparently you have never been through a hurricane. All I'm saying is that I appreciate the models, and I appreciate the predictions, but I HATE the jerks who HOPE for a "busy" season, or those morons who "wish" for a landfall. I'm not being an ass, all I'm saying it that I wish all hurricanes would dissipate the heat of the earth somewhere besides on land. Period.


How about a huge stationary hurricane in the middle of the ocean wich somehow sucks the excess warmth of the water. XD
I would like that one.
Well I wont talk about anything until we are closer to the event, but so much model support is worrying.
I agree 101, that's not what I have a problem with...it's these people on here that seem to be "rooting" for a Cat 5 to destroy somebody. I know you don't, and I know most don't, but I know some do. It just aggravates the crap out of me. Sorry if I offended you.
Sooo here's my Hurricane Season 2010 outlook. I'm not wishcasting anything, just went by the climatology of Neutral conditions and La Nina. Also look at the 2009 tracks, and you'll see if most of the storms didn't get sheared or dried out, there could have been landfalls in the USA, only Bill recurved, If Danny stayed tropical, it would have bee an East Coast storm. Erika would have been the same, or maybe a GOM storm. Waters are very warm, above agerage for May and shear will be less of an issue due to Neutral conditions, maybe a weak La Nina by November. So putting all the stuff together, I came out with this, please don't bash me, it's only my forecast, could turn out to be wrong.

2010 Hurricane Season Outlook
Quoting RitaRefugee:
I agree 101, that's not what I have a problem with...it's these people on here that seem to be "rooting" for a Cat 5 to destroy somebody. I know you don't, and I know most don't, but I know some do. It just aggravates the crap out of me. Sorry if I offended you.


Its fine and I agree with you about those people, but no one on here today that I saw was doing that. At least not of the ones who were discussing the forecast models.

That is why I was confused as to why you attacked those who were looking at the models first
554. JLPR
Quoting reedzone:
Sooo here's my Hurricane Season 2010 outlook. I'm not wishcasting anything, just went by the climatology of Neutral conditions and La Nina. Also look at the 2009 tracks, and you'll see if most of the storms didn't get sheared or dried out, there could have been landfalls in the USA, only Bill recurved, If Danny stayed tropical, it would have bee an East Coast storm. Erika would have been the same, or maybe a GOM storm. Waters are very warm, above agerage for May and shear will be less of an issue due to Neutral conditions, maybe a weak La Nina by November. So putting all the stuff together, I came out with this, please don't bash me, it's only my forecast, could turn out to be wrong.



Cant see the images :S
All I'm saying is that I've been lurking on here for about 5 years...occasionally I'll comment. I keep seeing folks that seem to "wish" for a Cat 5 hitting Miami, New York, Charleston, New Orleans, or Houston. All I have to say is....whoever does that is a hurrivirgin. That's all I have to say about that.
Quoting JLPR:


Cant see the images :S


Hmm I clicked IMG on photobucket, somehow can't get it on here. Do you know any way I can fix the problem?
Sorry 101. I guess I just wrapped you up in my aggravation... I apologize.
Quoting StormW:
Current satellite loop imagery surface overlay indicates a 1006mb low over the Yucatan Peninsula.


no development with it right Chief?

How does it factor into the possible developments the forecast models foresee?
Quoting reedzone:


Hmm I clicked IMG on photobucket, somehow can't get it on here. Do you know any way I can fix the problem?


NM, click the link and it will bring you to the image.
Quoting StormW:
Current satellite loop imagery surface overlay indicates a 1006mb low over the Yucatan Peninsula.


yea I pointed that out a couple hours ago, it's interesting.. and I think it's moving ENE, there is a little ball of convection forming over it or near it right now, while a HUGE area of convection has formed east of the low, and is being sheared. Shear is dropping, but alot of dry air is moving in *from the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere*
Gulf oil spill may be 19 times bigger than originally thought

WASHINGTON — The latest glimpse of video footage of the oil spill deep under the Gulf of Mexico indicates that around 95,000 barrels, or 4 million gallons, a day of crude oil may be spewing from the leaking wellhead, 19 times the previous estimate, an engineering professor told Congress Wednesday.........
did you guys see this:

0115 5 NE MOSES LAKE GRANT WA 4717 11921 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN REPORTED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF MOSES LAKE ON NE ROAD P. TORNADO ESTIMATED 300 YARDS WIDE AND WAS ON THE GROUND FOR 1/2 TO 3/4 OF A MILE. LIFTED AN OLD (OTX)

i think this is all one report
hey storm w can you find the center of that low/tropical wave in the southwest caribbean for me thank you
I know this is off topic..but can someone tell me why and if this is possible?

567. JLPR
Quoting reedzone:


NM, click the link and it will bring you to the image.


use the direct link one next time, looks like you used the image WU button, so a direct link was the right choice ^^
but yep I saw it, that's crazy man! but seems reasonable
I'm seeing a strong anticyclone coming from the Eastern Pacific, it's heading NE, is this why the shear is expected to drop and help form a storm?
Space Shuttle Main Engines run on Liquid Hydrogen and Liquid Oxygen,,and the thrust Burned makes steam..so How cool is that.


Quoting JLPR:


use the direct link one next time, looks like you used the image WU button, so a direct link was the right choice ^^
but yep I saw it, that's crazy man! but seems reasonable


Well those tracks had chances, the orange was about 5-10%, the dark red is 30% chance, which is one of the highest out of all of them, nothing over 50% because anything can basically happen. I think 40% of the named storms will head into the Carribean due to a strong B/A High. Like we're about to see next week lol.
off topic....but How 'bout them Saints?



http://Shuttlesource.com presents the STS-26 Flight Readiness Firing of the Space Shuttle Discovery's main engines.

Visit shuttlesource.com for more NASA Space Shuttle video.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


no development with it right Chief?

How does it factor into the possible developments the forecast models foresee?


It moves ene across Cuba and is one of the components of the hybrid low per some global solutions.


nw atlantic WV image as of 1114 pm est 5 mins old
575. JLPR
Quoting reedzone:


Well those tracks had chances, the orange was about 5-10%, the dark red is 30% chance, which is the highest out of all of them, nothing over 50% because anything can basically happen.


I do hope we see a lot of those orange tracks V.V
The red one would put me at the bull's-eye of hurricanes :(
Quoting pottery:

I see your point. But I think that you are not giving credit to a couple of things--
-the leaking pipes are from cracks made when an entire platform sank onto them
-the problem is 5000 feet underwater.
-monitoring the pressure, the state of the BOP, the state of the pipe is a big problem
-there is apparently a real chance that things could get a lot worse, if they screw-up.
I am not trying to justify the actions of BP. But I know that they have some of the best minds in the world working on the thing, with some pretty good incentives to get it fixed. The incentives include the bad PR, the costs (drilling 2 new wells, cleanup, claims, shareholders must be up their rears etc) .
They have a real problem in an environment that is fighting back.
The leak is terrible for the environment (wherever the oil ends up), and for that my heart bleeds.
But I dont agree that they are not doing everything that they possibly can think of to stop it.
It's bad, man.


This is not the first time this has happened. Where is the urgency and communication from the US gov?

We deal with disputes on underwater estimates and denial from NOAA and a zone of comfort by virtue of the EPA allowing chemicals to be injected at the source. Something is very wrong here, just sayin, .........out and gone>>>
101? am i forgiven or are you still pissed?
Quoting RitaRefugee:
off topic....but How 'bout them Saints?


Written by NewOrleans.Com/Sports | Tuesday, 20 April 2010 16:59 | Saints News
Share |

Five nationally-televised games highlight the schedule for the defending Super Bowl champions.

As announced by NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell during an NFL.com chat on Tuesday, the New Orleans Saints open the NFL season on Thursday night football against the Minnesota Vikings at the Superdome. The game is a rematch of the overtime thriller in last season's NFL Championship Game won by New Orleans, 31-28.

The Saints will make franchise history by playing on Thanksgiving Day for the first time. A trip to Cowboys Stadium against the Dallas Cowboys is set for November 25 on FOX.
Quoting RitaRefugee:
101? am i forgiven or are you still pissed?


you are forgiven lol, I can understand the frustration on your part
Quoting JLPR:


I do hope we see a lot of those orange tracks V.V
The red one would put me at the bull's-eye of hurricanes :(


Well with the sea level pressure low int he area, I think that has something to do with why we all think landfalls in the USA are high this year. Gotta look that up.. It's just a forecast of what I gathered up from officials and some very smart wunderground bloggers ;)
Upper air observations indicate shortwave over GOM - Speeds in jet max around 40 knots.
perhaps 80,000bpd is the new estimate?!?!?!

There are some people at BP who need to go to jail for a very long time.


Worst nightmare realized for Plaquemines president as oil reaches marshes

“I’m sick to my stomach,” said Plaquemines President Nungesser. “It’s our worst fear. As this moves inland, it’ll destroy everything.”
I'll be watching EVERY GAME. Like I have for the past 30 years....WORLD CHAMPIONS....NEW ORLEANS SAINTS....WHO WOULDA GUESSED....EFFIN ME...FOR THE PAST 10 YEARS
The Times-Picayune's Becky Mowbray and Mark Scheifstein give the latest update on the BP oil spill











RE:580


Thats a pretty sad read Patrap.
Deepwater Horizon disaster site is a vortex of activity, with focus far below
By Rebecca Mowbray, The Times-Picayune
May 19, 2010, 7:02PM


About an hour after leaving South Pass, the Mr. Leroy work boat suddenly cut its engines. The blue water of the Gulf of Mexico was speckled with small brown dots the size of pocket change, like chocolate chips floating in the ocean.

It was oil from the exploded BP Macondo well that had been sprayed with dispersants, the detergent-like chemicals called for in the U.S. government's oil response plan to help the oil break down.

Oil has been flowing into the Gulf of Mexico since shortly after the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded April 20 and subsequently sank, killing 11 workers and breaking a pipe called the riser that is sitting on the sea bed in 5,000 feet of water. Official estimates from the company and the government say that 5,000 barrels of oil have been billowing into the Gulf each day, but independent scientists say that figure is absurdly low, and as much as 84,000 barrels could be spewing into the water each day.
Quoting lickitysplit:
RE:580


Thats a pretty sad read Patrap.


U betcha..
This Oil leak is just the most depressing thing ever, think of all the innocent marine animals that are dying or already dead because of the human addiction with oil. Now add hurricanes to the mix, and oil will start to affect land animals and also humans! What a crying shame.
WoW impressive convection near Yucatan, tops are out of the scale!
I really shouldnt post on here when I get advice when I've been drinking...i'm lit...sorry See you tomorrow when i'M SOBER...


Oil in the water
Added by Andrew Boyd, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 7:44 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Thick oil gathers as the surface as the DD-3 and DD-2 at left working on relief wells, the Discoverer Enterprise (center) burns off natural gas while siphoning oil at the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.


Oil in the water
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:51 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oily sheen at the surface at the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
00Z GFS out 18 hrs, shows energy associated with the low pressure area near the Yucatan being pulled towards the focal point of genesis of the Bahamian Low.



Oil in the water
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:51 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oily sheen at the surface at the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010


Oil in the water
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:50 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Skimming boats gather oil at the surface at the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010




Oil in the water
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:50 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Skimming boats gather oil at the surface at the site of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
By this time tomorrow we maybe discussing a very broad area of low pressure near the Bahamas. We have energy coming from three directions. It's gonna be a mess.


The oil reaches South Pass
Added by Michael DeMocker, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 2:48 PM

MICHAEL DeMOCKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil coats the base of marsh grass at South Pass on Tuesday, May 18, 2010.
Tags: oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
Quoting Weather456:
By this time tomorrow we maybe discussing a very broad area of low pressure near the Bahamas. We have energy coming from three directions. It's gonna be a mess.


Indeed, I honestly hope the Haiti storm ends up being nothing. The last thing they need is a huge rain making system.
Costly, time-consuming test of cement linings in Deepwater Horizon rig was omitted, spokesman says
By David Hammer, The Times-Picayune
May 19, 2010, 10:30PM


BP hired a top oilfield service company to test the strength of cement linings on the Deepwater Horizon's well, but sent the firm's workers home 11 hours before the rig exploded April 20 without performing a final check that a top cementing company executive called "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness" of the well's seal.

A spokesman for the testing firm, Schlumberger, said BP had a Schlumberger team and equipment for sending acoustic testing lines down the well "on standby" from April 18 to April 20. But BP never asked the Schlumberger crew to perform the acoustic test and sent its members back to Louisiana on a regularly scheduled helicopter flight at 11 a.m., Schlumberger spokesman Stephen T. Harris said.

At a few minutes before 10 p.m., a belch of natural gas shot out of the well, up a riser pipe to the rig above, igniting massive explosions, killing 11 crewmembers and sending millions of gallons of crude oil into the Gulf. The rig's owner, Transocean, blames failed cement seals, installed by Halliburton, for the disastrous blowout.

Tests done, and not done
tim_probert.JPGCarolyn Kaster/The Associated PressTim Probert of Halliburton

But while politicians and media have focused on the finger-pointing by BP, Transocean and Halliburton executives in congressional hearings over the past 10 days, Halliburton's representative at those hearings, Tim Probert, has quietly provided some clues about what might have gone wrong.

First, he went into detail in two committee hearings May 11 about the tests that were done to check his company's cement job -- called positive and negative pressure tests -- and a third test that BP never asked for. That test is called a "cement bond log," which records data collected from wires run down the well to measure sounds that indicate whether there are any weaknesses or spaces in the cement.

Probert told a Senate committee last week that the cement bond log is "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness of the bond between the cement sheets, the formation and the casing itself."

Gregory McCormack, director of the Petroleum Extension Service at the University of Texas, called the cement bond log the "gold standard" of cement tests. It records detailed, 360-degree representations of the well and can show where the cement isn't adhering fully to the casing and where there may be paths for gas or oil to get into the hole.

Schlumberger's Harris said the contractor was ready to do any such wireline tests, but was never directed to do so. The team had finished doing tests on the subsea layers of earth being drilled five days earlier and hadn't done any work since, Harris said.

In fact, Harris said there was no time to get the company's wireline testing equipment off the rig before it exploded.

According to internal BP and Transocean documents released to the public by a U.S. House committee, the rig crew made sure a plug placed in the bottom of the well was set properly and then conducted the positive and negative pressure tests. Those measure the integrity of the well casing and of various seals placed between different lengths of pipe to close off spaces that run up the sides of the well.

According to Probert, government regulators at the Minerals Management Service don't require a well owner like BP to order a cement bond log unless it feels uncertain about any of the earlier tests. It's not clear what the results of the positive and negative pressure tests were.

Spaces between pipes not closed off

Probert also presented Congress with a schematic of BP's cementing plan, which he repeatedly said his firm followed to a T. Although he never mentioned it in his written or verbal testimony, the drawing Probert attached to his prepared testimony May 11 shows what drilling experts say is a key design flaw that could easily have allowed a blast of natural gas to shoot to the surface undetected and destroy the rig before the crew of 126 knew what hit them.
00Z GFS forms a low in the Bahamas in 24 hours, closes it in 36

First, he went into detail in two committee hearings May 11 about the tests that were done to check his company's cement job -- called positive and negative pressure tests -- and a third test that BP never asked for. That test is called a "cement bond log," which records data collected from wires run down the well to measure sounds that indicate whether there are any weaknesses or spaces in the cement.

Probert told a Senate committee last week that the cement bond log is "the only test that can really determine the actual effectiveness of the bond between the cement sheets, the formation and the casing itself."

Gregory McCormack, director of the Petroleum Extension Service at the University of Texas, called the cement bond log the "gold standard" of cement tests. It records detailed, 360-degree representations of the well and can show where the cement isn't adhering fully to the casing and where there may be paths for gas or oil to get into the hole.

Schlumberger's Harris said the contractor was ready to do any such wireline tests, but was never directed to do so. The team had finished doing tests on the subsea layers of earth being drilled five days earlier and hadn't done any work since, Harris said.
Quoting pottery:
I am not sure, but more than a week, I would imagine. Depends too on the viscosity (thickness) of the original oil. It would need to be pretty thick on the surface (or deep underwater for that matter??!!) for it to lump-up like that. Or collected somewhere, like in an eddy?


ok so why couldn't this be from the spill? tracking of the oil spill has only been at the surface correct? isn't there a bunch of oil under the surface that's not being tracked as well?
Auburn I saw that vid of 'water' burning--it could be true. Although I have doubts

1. I think that is supposed to be an example of electrolysis. In other words, you put a source of electricity into water that splits it into hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is very flammable

objection #1 Hydrogen burns with a blue or purple flame.





Objection #2 Hydrogen is so light it would drift away and not stay concentrated above the water.

2. It could be that some flammable chemical from the batteries leaches into the water.

3. The water is not water at all, but grain alcohol.

I took a college inorganic chem class, and one of the things we worked with was sodium, an element so reactive it will split water molecules apart, and burn underwater. (Cesium is even more reactive and will explode on contact with water or ice down to more than -200F)

I especially remember using a sodium press to squeeze out pieces of sodium--sodium is more waxy than a metal, and it was like squeezing out very thick toothpaste. I used to have to do this for all the classmates, cause of my strong arms. Anyway.

We were warned about the possibility of sodium fires, and the professor sternly told us that anyone who started a sodium/water fire would be permanently dropped from the course.


That was just the sort of thing that could happen to me because I sweat easily--so having to use the sodium press for everyone meant that if there was one sodium fire, it would be mine!

Fortunately, there were none at all, and I survived :)
I've been hearing rumors that NOAA is delaying its forecast release for another week. Does anyone else know if this is true or not?
So what would be the track of the system that is suppose to form in the SW Carib. next week, I've heard all this talk about Haiti being under the gun for drenching rains that may cause flooding, but where does that system or storm go after that? Any new model runs?
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I've been hearing rumors that NOAA is delaying its forecast release for another week. Does anyone else know if this is true or not?

its true



NOAA outlooks delayed till next week 27 of may and will be released in wash.

sw carb system forms starting sunday tracks ne ward towards east haiti drenching rains poss first tropical system of season
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



NOAA outlooks delayed till next week 27 of may and will be released in wash.

sw carb system forms starting sunday tracks ne ward towards east haiti drenching rains poss first tropical system of season


large anticyclone moving eastward from the EPAC, look for it to cross into the West Caribbean over the next day or two

also another weaker anticyclone is near panama and could move north
If you take a closer look at these tracks, you can see the direction they were headed before they died, IF they kept going, landfalls would have been in the USA. Danny would have been an East Coast TS/Hurricane, Erika could have threatened Florida. Fred could have also threatened Florida if shear didn't hammer it so hard, remember it was traveling under a big ridge of High Pressure. I'm pretty confident that Ana would have been a GOM threat, but thank God for wind shear last season. This year will be completely different as Neutral conditions may evolve into weak La Nina conditions by October-November. It's an easy forecast when it comes to the number of storms, we will definitely have over 10 storms.

Markey to Get Live Feed of BP Oil Spill on Website

BP Acquiesces to Markey’s Request, Will Release Video Stream Tonight to Chairman

May 19, 2010 – Following a demand from Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) for a live feed of the BP oil spill to be made publicly available on the web, BP said they would release the feed and it will be shown on Rep. Markey’s committee website at www.globalwarming.house.gov. The release of the live link to Rep. Markey is expected tonight.

“This may be BP’s footage, but it’s America’s ocean. Now anyone will be able to see the real-time effects the BP spill is having on our ocean,” said Rep. Markey, who conducted a briefing today with independent scientists where he reiterated the call for a video feed. “This footage will aid analysis by independent scientists blocked by BP from coming to see the spill.”

Markey sent letters earlier today to BP America’s CEO Lamar McKay asking for the footage to be made public on BP’s website. If BP could not host the footage, Rep. Markey offered to host it on his website free of charge.

“BP is going to have to pay for the cleanup of this spill and the long-term damage. Hosting this video on our website is the only freebie they’re going to get,” Rep. Markey said.

The letter sent to McKay today can be found here.

Rep. Markey has frequently queried BP for more information on the exact size of the spill and on their refusal to engage with outside scientists. Independent scientists have examined video, satellite photos and other aspects of the spill and determined that it may be much bigger than estimated. Today at a briefing Rep. Markey held in his Energy and Environment Subcommittee, independent scientists from Purdue University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said that the estimate of a 5,000 barrel per day leak was an underestimation of the flow. The scientists said with more data, they could better calculate the flow of oil from the sea floor.

"This is 4th grade math. We know the numerator here—the couple thousand barrels a day BP is siphoning out of the sunken pipe. But we still don’t know the denominator," said Rep. Markey. "BP is capturing a fraction of the oil, but they don’t know what that fraction is. By releasing this video, we’ve taken the first step towards allowing better access to the information BP has about this spill."
619. xcool



00Z GFS looks to be joining the EURO, takes a strong low to the southeastern coastline by 126 hours. The question is, is it Subtropical?

621. xcool
subtropical
Woot 2 years of college for my met degree done 2 more to go.

Anyway it looks like I may have a reason to come out of vacation early but im not sure if it'll be the caribbean storm or the subtropical storm. The latest run of the GFS coming in looks like we may have a sloppy Subtropical storm near the southeast US coast early to mid next week.
VA is having a sales tax holiday on hurricane supplies from May 25 to May 31.



Arctic Drilling Proposal Advanced Amid Concern a spill or blow out couldn't be contained or cleaned up in those conditions.
K, now I'm confident this is either Subtropical or Tropical by the looks of this..

156 hours
Arizona Threatens To Pull The Plug On LA


05/19/10 07:16 PM | AP

PHOENIX An Arizona utility regulator suggests there could be payback for the Los Angeles City Council's vote to boycott Arizona businesses because of the state's new law targeting illegal immigration.

Arizona Corporation Commission member Gary Pierce responded to the council's vote by sending a letter Tuesday to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (vee-ah-reye-GOH'-sah). It cites the mayor's support for the boycott and says he would "be happy to encourage Arizona utilities" to renegotiate power agreements that now send electricity to the California city.

Pierce concludes his letter by saying that people of goodwill can disagree over the Arizona law's merits but that a boycott of Arizona "is not a message sent in goodwill."

___
Quoting reedzone:
00Z GFS looks to be joining the EURO, takes a strong low to the southeastern coastline by 126 hours. The question is, is it Subtropical?




Wow! Look at all those H's on the Map. Whatever develops (tropical/subtropical) won't be in any hurry too shoot off to the NE.
Quoting reedzone:
K, now I'm confident this is either Subtropical or Tropical by the looks of this..

150 hours

Looks like occluded becoming completely subtropical in that image but thats to far out to say for sure.
The 00Z GFS has let go of the potential storm in the Carribean for now, as of 156 hours, it only has a 1007 mlb. low in that area. The focus is on the Subtropical feature to the north, which btw is heading in the same direction Andrea in 2007 went.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Auburn I saw that vid of 'water' burning--it could be true. Although I have doubts

1. I think that is supposed to be an example of electrolysis. In other words, you put a source of electricity into water that splits it into hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is very flammable

objection #1 Hydrogen burns with a blue or purple flame.





Objection #2 Hydrogen is so light it would drift away and not stay concentrated above the water.

2. It could be that some flammable chemical from the batteries leaches into the water.

3. The water is not water at all, but grain alcohol.

I took a college inorganic chem class, and one of the things we worked with was sodium, an element so reactive it will split water molecules apart, and burn underwater. (Cesium is even more reactive and will explode on contact with water or ice down to more than -200F)

I especially remember using a sodium press to squeeze out pieces of sodium--sodium is more waxy than a metal, and it was like squeezing out very thick toothpaste. I used to have to do this for all the classmates, cause of my strong arms. Anyway.

We were warned about the possibility of sodium fires, and the professor sternly told us that anyone who started a sodium/water fire would be permanently dropped from the course.


That was just the sort of thing that could happen to me because I sweat easily--so having to use the sodium press for everyone meant that if there was one sodium fire, it would be mine!

Fortunately, there were none at all, and I survived :)


I'm an organic chemist. The video is complete garbage. Nothing will leak from the batteries under those conditions. While technically water electrolysis can start at 1.24V, Higher voltage is necessary for much of anything to occur. The batteries are only 1.5V. It is unlikely that there are enough electrolytes in tap water to conduct adequate electricity for this process. If there were, you would see a bright orange flame... the color that sodium ions, the one of the most abundant electrolytes, would give off. (and the color you normally associate with flames.) Even if it DID occur, the batteries would only produce enough hydrogen for a few seconds of flame, even after being fully discharged. Additionally, the hydrogen would drift away. Even if it didn't, the oxygen would preferentially be concentrated in the glass. This would create an explosion on lighting it. Also, the cotton that he put over the glass would have burst into flame explosively. Even if he managed to keep just hydrogen there, it would have erupted into a fireball when it was lit.

Everything I see is consistent with him lighting ethanol in the glass. The flame looks like the typical flame you see on an alcohol burner... barely any color, mostly blue, with a little orange at the tips. Plus, alcohol looks just like water.
Ok the latest GFS reminds me of a combination of 2 subtropical storms we've seen. Subtropical (became tropical) storm Gabrielle with the approach to the coast and then Subtropical storm Andrea with the way it stalled and dried out/sheared apart.
631. xcool
cmc newupdate soon...
00z gem model shows a 1002 mb low off fla by tue and a 1005 mb low in sw carb
Thanks for the info on the burning 'water' caffinehog!

I thought it was a fake using alcohol, but I wasn't sure about chemicals in the batteries.
NEXRAD Radar
Slatington Mountain, Base Reflectivity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Slatington Mountain, Base Reflectivity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

messy night pat
There is some very strong 850mb vorticity and Convergence just off the tip of the Yucatan Penn..
The more models and model runs I see the more I believe there is a building consensus in the models that the southeast US may be hit by either a late season nor'easter or a messy subtropical storm. Not much difference in the affects. Nothing to worry about but something of interest to keep you watching the models.
WELL I NO WHERE ALL OF MY HOT WEATHER IS ITS -107 IN Dome C, Antarctica
Dats Minus 107 below Zero Taz..


Kinda cold if ya ask me
Dome C,Antarctica Wu-page Tazaroo

Updated: 6:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010

Wednesday Night
Overcast. Low: -104 F . Wind SW 13 mph . Windchill: -144 F .

Thursday
Overcast. High: -92 F . Wind South 11 mph . Windchill: -140 F .
Quoting TampaSpin:
There is some very strong 850mb vorticity and Convergence just off the tip of the Yucatan Penn..


Looks like that system could be what helps spark the system in the Bahamas
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Looks like that system could be what helps spark the system in the Bahamas



I think everyone is rushing this development thing.....Not sure anything will really come together yet as Shear seems to be still strong in most places next week yet.
Is there a site dedicated to the effects on various widlife from this "spill"? I was wondering about some of the higher food chain fishes and mammals.
Quoting Caffinehog:


I'm an organic chemist. The video is complete garbage. Nothing will leak from the batteries under those conditions. While technically water electrolysis can start at 1.24V, Higher voltage is necessary for much of anything to occur. The batteries are only 1.5V. It is unlikely that there are enough electrolytes in tap water to conduct adequate electricity for this process. If there were, you would see a bright orange flame... the color that sodium ions, the one of the most abundant electrolytes, would give off. (and the color you normally associate with flames.) Even if it DID occur, the batteries would only produce enough hydrogen for a few seconds of flame, even after being fully discharged. Additionally, the hydrogen would drift away. Even if it didn't, the oxygen would preferentially be concentrated in the glass. This would create an explosion on lighting it. Also, the cotton that he put over the glass would have burst into flame explosively. Even if he managed to keep just hydrogen there, it would have erupted into a fireball when it was lit.

Everything I see is consistent with him lighting ethanol in the glass. The flame looks like the typical flame you see on an alcohol burner... barely any color, mostly blue, with a little orange at the tips. Plus, alcohol looks just like water.


Thank you..I have played with Browns gas in the past ..but I must say I did have to try this just the same...LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Dome C,Antarctica Wu-page Tazaroo

Updated: 6:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010

Wednesday Night
Overcast. Low: -104 F . Wind SW 13 mph . Windchill: -144 F .

Thursday
Overcast. High: -92 F . Wind South 11 mph . Windchill: -140 F .


Hope that's enough for my dad
later all out till the am lets see what tomorrow brings
649. xcool





Several days of model consensus is enough to at least discuss the chances of development.

Shear is decreasing as we speak, especially in the Western Caribbean where an anticyclone is coming over from the EPAC
From http://www.the-world-traveler.com/what-its-like-to-live-in-minus-100-degree-weather/...

Talking about researchers in Antarctica...

"Traditions are fun ways to while away the hours while in Antarctica. One of the most infamous traditions is the introduction into the “300 Club”. In order to do this, a day is required where the temperature is at least 100 degrees below zero. The sauna is brought up to over 200 degrees. They then sprint from the 200 degree sauna into the minus 100 degree air and back again."

Quoting hurricanefiend85:
From http://www.the-world-traveler.com/what-its-like-to-live-in-minus-100-degree-weather/...

Talking about researchers in Antarctica...

"Traditions are fun ways to while away the hours while in Antarctica. One of the most infamous traditions is the introduction into the “300 Club”. In order to do this, a day is required where the temperature is at least 100 degrees below zero. The sauna is brought up to over 200 degrees. They then sprint from the 200 degree sauna into the minus 100 degree air and back again."



and then they all drop dead from temperature shock? lol
653. xcool






Quoting Hurricanes101:


and then they all drop dead from temperature shock? lol


I would assume so, but hey, I'm sure they at least get their name on some sort of plaque!
Quoting hurricanefiend85:


I would assume so, but hey, I'm sure they at least get their name on some sort of plaque!


Yea its called a tombstone lol
656. Relix
So it's quite probable that PR will get a nice pounding from this "hybrid" system seeing as it will be so close?
I've been in an 80 degree house and gone out into a 13 degree night with 15-20mph winds.
THE GEM IS STILL FORECASTING A HURRICANE

THE GEM IS STILL FORECASTING A HURRICANE
AS A 997MB HURRICANE
WAIT IT HAVE TWO
ONE IS JST ABOUT TO HIT THE EAST COAST
NEXT WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER 997MB
ABOUT TO HIT THE CARALINAS

My wetlands are dying as we speak..

How can we fix this..?


Look at the price that nature is just beginning...to feel

The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..









Quoting Patrap:


My wetlands are dying as we speak..

How can we fix this..?


Look at the price that nature is just beginning...to feel

The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..













I feel sick just looking at that. I mean, while I'm in southeast Louisiana, I don't depend on seafood for my living, but I also understand that there are a lot of people that do.

I'm very saddened by this, and also simultaneously angered.
625 Patrap
Quote: Arizona Corporation Commission member Gary Pierce responded to the council's vote by sending a letter Tuesday to Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (vee-ah-reye-GOH'-sah). It cites the mayor's support for the boycott and says he would "be happy to encourage Arizona utilities" to renegotiate power agreements that now send electricity to the California city.
Good riddence. Air conditioners should be banned in SoCal anyways; it ain't exactly a humid part of the world. And most of any excess in humidity is from folks overwatering grasses that evolved or were bred to grow in climes similar to those in Ireland or Norway.
664. xcool



newwwwww cmc



May 20 forecast: Size and density of Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Hi I'm a new poster from Poland(Europe)
I'm interested in severe weather(hurricanes,tornadoes,floods and more like that) and I want to be an active poster on this blog
Quoting Patrap:

My wetlands are dying as we speak..

How can we fix this..?


Look at the price that nature is just beginning...to feel

The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..











That's super depressing ='[
My prediction for incoming hurricane season is:
21-11-6(may be more than predicted)
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Hi I'm a new poster from Poland(Europe)
I'm interested in severe weather(hurricanes,tornadoes,floods and more like that) and I want to be an active poster on this blog


Welcome. Certainly, you'll learn a lot here. I know I have.
did you know that's a flood in Poland???
Info:Link
Warning:times is UTC+2
673. xcool


ngp .next ecmfw





What are the chances of the Caribbean and the Hybrid systems of developing?
We'll see what happens.

Good morning from Germany everyone.

BP bows to demands from Congress and scientists for live feed of oil leakGush of oil from Deepwater Horizon oil spill to be broadcast live after BP accused of withholding information from ocean floor
Suzanne Goldenberg, US environment correspondent guardian.co.uk, Thursday 20 May 2010 10.28 BST
link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/may/20/deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-live-web-footage
677. MahFL
I don't actually see the live feed from the sea bed yet, does anyone see it ?
The GFS appears to have come to its senses.

623 Skyepony "VA is having a sales tax holiday on hurricane supplies from May 25 to May 31."
Probably 90L by start of next week.
Good Morning.
A bright morning here, looks to be a hot one.
The wave in the Atl east of here is not looking as threatening as it did 6 hours ago.
Good to know that BP is going to put a decent monitor on the leaks. In spite of their past statements, everyone needs to know how much oil is coming out of that pipe.
The marshlands are in big trouble...
Good morning. I think there has to be another reason apart from the oil spill about why NOAA is not releasing the May forecast today.That may be some last minute data that they want to see but that is my opinion.
686. MahFL
Pottery....
BP have had a live camera on the leak since day 1, they just do not want the public to see it, because the flow rate is much higher than 5000 bbl per day. It's gushing out, it's not a leaking garden hosepipe......
687. IKE
Quoting MahFL:
Pottery....
BP have had a live camera on the leak since day 1, they just do not want the public to see it, because the flow rate is much higher than 5000 bbl per day. It's gushing out, it's not a leaking garden hosepipe......


99% of us have already seen it. Too late BP...it doesn't matter.
Good Morning. Missed Dr. M's Blog from yesterday afternoon but it is a bit of a "game changer" just before the this season in terms of potential numbers. As indicated below from the summary section from an FSU team in 2007 (AMS Journal), not much difference in general landfall location between a neutral or La Nina year for the US, but, the possibility of higher numbers for Florida and the Gulf (as well as the Caribbean) seems to be on the horizon.....This may turn out to be a really bad year for the Caribbean and Florida/Gulf Coast as sheer is taken out of the equation by La Nina conditions...........We really "need" a nice big SAL outbreak; I think that will be the only limit on the season until sheer levels pick up again in the late Fall....Ouch.

The regional differences in Atlantic hurricane landfall probabilities along the U.S. coast are identified with respect to the warm, neutral, and cold phases of ENSO. Combining forecasts of the ENSO phase that will onset during a hurricane season with the landfall frequencies from 1900 to 2004, one can determine whether the probability of a hurricane landfall is the highest along the East Coast, in Florida, or along the Gulf Coast. Local, state, and federal emergency management agencies, particularly with respect to coastal areas, should benefit from the results of this study.

Residents of the East Coast are most likely to see a landfalling hurricane during a season that precedes a La Niña winter. The landfall probability during ENSO cold phases (0.72) drops to 0.44 during neutral phases for East Coast landfalls. In Florida and along the Gulf Coast, there is little difference observed in the frequency of hurricane landfalls between cold and neutral events. As expected from previous works, landfall probabilities are smallest during ENSO warm phases in all regions.
Haiti had a 4.5 earthquake earlier this morning.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. I think there has to be another reason apart from the oil spill about why NOAA is not releasing the May forecast today.That may be some last minute data that they want to see but that is my opinion.

I would agree with this. If they had the numbers, they would have said so.
691. P451
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Gale force system expected this weekend; Potential system in SW Caribbean


Looks like we're about to get cooking. Good to see you decided to return your writeups would have been sorely missed!

==================

16 Tornadoes reported in Oklahoma - I could only find a report of 1 injury? A truck driver?

Well, here's ~18 hours of IR animation from the event.

Quoting MahFL:
Pottery....
BP have had a live camera on the leak since day 1, they just do not want the public to see it, because the flow rate is much higher than 5000 bbl per day. It's gushing out, it's not a leaking garden hosepipe......

True. But with public scrutiny of ALL the video, we will have a better idea of how much/what increase if any/etc is going on down there.
Quoting Patrap:
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com


DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010


Hope yer happy now, former journalist, Brit Hume. There's the oil you pinhead.
("...I'd like to spit some Beachnut in that dude's eye, 'cause a country boy can survive..."
Apple iPad + Job = good day.

Hello everyone!
Good Morning...

Interesting development this weekend... specially on Sunday over the E Bahama's region, given the current model consistency (ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NGP, etc...). It's quite certain that this disturbance should be a warm core system, although initially is abit more of a cold core than a warm core due to an upper level low over eastern FL region into the SW ATL.

Sure looks like the a High will be moving north of the system towards the middle of next week and forcing this system NW, WNW to W and possibly WSW.
Also, with the well established storm "clusters" during any given season, based on Klotzenbach's recent research, the issue this year is not one of "constant" storms due to low sheer, but, when/where the clusters will emerge.....This then takes us back to looking at MJO patterns (as mentioned in Storms recent blog entry) and other variations that emerge during the season......We will have plenty to look at and analize this year both as it happens, and, in post-season review and analysis.....It may a banner year for hurricane research as we all try to get a better handle on what makes the tropics tick (with a little "oil" dressing on top of it all).
Here in Johns Island, SC love watching the tropics, but I'm not gonna lie. Not exactly thrilled with the prospect of a MAY start this year.


Hurricane season may make spill worse

By Oren Dorell, USA TODAY

As hurricane season looms, forecasters, scientists and residents along the Gulf Coast worry that a major storm could make the oil spill worse.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says a hurricane, or a succession of them, may bring oil up from the depths of the Gulf of Mexico and then push it ashore. Forecasters say a season with multiple storms could send oil farther inland and spread it as far as Cape Hatteras, N.C.

"To think a storm surge could resuscitate a huge sum of oil (from the deep) and deposit it on land is truly catastrophic," says Joe Jaworski, mayor of Galveston, Texas, a city hit by Hurricane Ike in 2008.

This year's hurricane season, June 1 to Nov. 30, is expected to be above average with 15 tropical storms of which eight could be hurricanes, according to experts at Colorado State University, the nation's oldest hurricane forecasting team

Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at forecaster Weather Underground, says the oil spill adds "an exclamation mark" to the "sense of foreboding" he has over the hurricane season. Storms tend to break up and dilute large spills, but they also spread them over a greater area, he says.

In 1989, when the Exxon Valdez spilled 11 million gallons near the coast of Alaska, workers contained the spill, but a storm with 70 mph winds "made the damage much greater," Masters says. A hurricane blows at 74 mph. In 1979, the IXTOC I oil well blowout spilled 140 million gallons into the Gulf of Mexico. Padre Island, Texas, "got a huge fouling," Masters says, but "then a big storm came through, scrubbed all the oil off and it turned out to be a good thing."

The federal Climate Prediction Center will issue its hurricane outlook May 27. Masters and AccuWeather.com's Joe Bastardi say record high sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and cooling in the Pacific Ocean resemble conditions in 2004, 2005 and 2008, when multiple storms battered the USA.

Kerry St. Pé, director of the Barataria-Terrebonne National Estuary Program in Thibodaux, La., which was hit by storm surges from hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, says a storm surge would carry oil over the wetlands and deposit it farther inland.

A hurricane might render the oil less toxic, "but it might destroy a lot of homes," St. Pé says.

None of the scenarios are good for the ecosystem, says Jim Edson, a University of Connecticut marine meteorologist.

"We've never dealt with anything like this before," Edson says.
I am very certain that Alex is only 5 days away. Sub-Tropical possibly turning pure tropical in time. Strength of this system is suspect but don't be surprise to see a 60 to 75mph storm bearing down on the N FL, GA, or South Carolina coastline come Tues or Wed.
00z GFS

I think disturbance next week near Haiti will become a 60 mph(96 km/h)tropical storm
Quoting pottery:

True. But with public scrutiny of ALL the video, we will have a better idea of how much/what increase if any/etc is going on down there.


been watching every video I can. At the beginning, the oil was coming out, and flowing almost straight up, in big pooofs. Now, the most recent video, shows the oil going further out horizontally, before curving upwards.

My thinking is either the pressure behind the flow has increased, or the oil itself has changed to a thicker, heavier type.
Hurricane Season 2010 going to start out with a Sub-Tropical Bomb punishing the SE Coastline. Cape Canaveral to the N/S Carolina border need to be on watch for this one.
698. mikatnight 8:24 AM EDT on May 20, 2010

Really cool to see Dr. Masters get a lot of press this year and hope that we have a "nice" and informative discourse on the Blog this year as opposed to bikering and troll activity. We will probably have more folks on here looking at Dr. M's blog as the result of the press exposure....Kudos to Dr. M for his work and giving us this great forum to discuss the issues.
Another bogus low from the GFS...
Quoting hurricane23:
Another bogus low from the GFS...


Adrian, you think we will have Alex from the area north of Bahamas subtropical or fully tropical?
708. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
698. mikatnight 8:24 AM EDT on May 20, 2010

Really cool to see Dr. Masters get a lot of press this year and hope that we have a "nice" and informative discourse on the Blog this year as opposed to bikering and troll activity. We will probably have more folks on here looking at Dr. M's blog as the result of the press exposure....Kudos to Dr. M for his work and giving us this great forum to discuss the issues.


You're asking for a lot on here. I can already see it simmering and it hasn't even started yet.


From Morehead City,NC....

"LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLOSE OFF INTO A CUTOFF
UPPER LOW SUNDAY OFF THE SE COAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN INTERACT
WITH A BROAD/WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF THE BAHAMAS BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED MONDAY AND RETROGRADING TOWARD THE SE COAST MONDAY-THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BLOCKS ANY NE
TRACK. ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE (NAM/GFS AND ECMWF) BRINGS SOME IMPACTS
TO EASTERN NC IN THE FORM OF SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AND CHANCES FOR RAIN.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...THE CONSENSUS
SUGGESTS THAT THE FORECAST EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK COULD BE WETTER
AND COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME BUT IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN THE
12Z MODELS THEN OUR FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
-- End Changed Discussion --"


Latest pic of the GOM leak...

Quoting hurricane23:
Another bogus low from the GFS...


The Euro has been very consistant the last several runs. So I would tend to give credience to the Euro. A very strong High over the Great lakes and NE US will force this storm NW then turns it SW towards the Jacksonville area maybe further south than that.
Quoting hurricane23:
Another bogus low from the GFS...
Only feature of concern is with a possible subtropical feature of the southeast coast. 00z ECM in particular was fairly agressive on its last run.
NVRM
Quoting hurricane23:
Only feature of concern is with a possible subtropical feature of the southeast coast. 00z ECM in particular was fairly agressive on its last run.


What happens if Haiti floods from a weak disturbance? There is no bogus low. It is a real possibility that a disturbance will be heading for Hispaniola next week as indicated by not 1 model, but several. It is by far more dangerous than the subtropical low because of its potential to affect an already struggling country.
708. IKE 8:45 AM EDT on May 20, 2010

I can can only hope, but, that's one of the reasons I like the Blog early in the morning...the trolls like to sleep late I think.......... :)
Texas will have a mesoscale event today...
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
708. IKE 8:45 AM EDT on May 20, 2010

I can can only hope, but, that's one of the reasons I like the Blog early in the morning...the trolls like to sleep late I think.......... :)


LOL!! Give it until 10am!
I looks like BP and the CG dont want the American people to get a look at some of the oil damage. From Energy Boom:

CBS has footage of their reporters being turned away from a public beach in Louisiana where they were filming oil washing up on shore.

"This is BP's rules, it's not ours," someone aboard the boat said. Coast Guard officials told CBS that they're looking into it. "

Now..since the Coast Guard is a branch of the military, you gotta wonder how closely the government and BP are working together to keep the public from seeing this. I dont even understand how they think that's possible.



718. IKE
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
708. IKE 8:45 AM EDT on May 20, 2010

I can can only hope, but, that's one of the reasons I like the Blog early in the morning...the trolls like to sleep late I think.......... :)


LOL...smart man...you're exactly correct.

Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL!! Give it until 10am!


I doubt admin will allow a lot starting soon. The "time outs" will start.
Isn't it today that NOAA is to release their hurricane predictions?
Quoting IKE:


LOL...smart man...you're exactly correct.



I doubt admin will allow a lot starting soon. The "time outs" will start.


Hey JFV is back I here. I wonder when his comments will start showing up!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Adrian, you think we will have Alex from the area north of Bahamas subtropical or fully tropical?

I think it will be fully tropical 60-mph storm
i'm not Adrian,but I have to give you my opinion
Quoting breald:
Isn't it today that NOAA is to release their hurricane predictions?


They postponed it to the 27th.
Cold-core with some chance at being named sts.
Quoting Weather456:


What happens if Haiti floods from a weak disturbance? There is no bogus low. It is a real possibility that a disturbance will be heading for Hispaniola next week as indicated by not 1 model, but several. It is by far more dangerous than the subtropical low because of its potential to affect an already struggling country.


Obviously the potential for flooding down in the tropics this time of the year always exist. Almost gave in to the trigger happy gfs. The system of the southeast is cold-core in general with some chance at being named sts.

Not to different from andrea back in 07.

Quoting IKE:


LOL...smart man...you're exactly correct.



I doubt admin will allow a lot starting soon. The "time outs" will start.


Hey IKE, As this ULL drops in Next Tues and Wed, there could severe wx in your area due to the cold air aloft.
Quoting breald:
Isn't it today that NOAA is to release their hurricane predictions?


It was rescheduled to next Thursday.
98% of the gulf is at or above 26C



This time 5 years ago...

Thanks Weather456. Glad to see you back. Looking forward to your input this season.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
98% of the gulf is at or above 26C



This time 5 years ago...



This year really makes 2005 look small in terms of SSTs.
Quoting Jeff9641:


The Euro has been very consistant the last several runs. So I would tend to give credience to the Euro. A very strong High over the Great lakes and NE US will force this storm NW then turns it SW towards the Jacksonville area maybe further south than that.


Its a good thing I bought my EATON emergency radio. (Gainesville Fl)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
98% of the gulf is at or above 26C



This time 5 years ago...


the watar is getting warmer VERY fast
Quoting Jeff9641:


LOL!! Give it until 10am!


Wait until the kids are out of school for summer.
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill trajectory hindcast/forecast based on West Florida Shelf ROMS

Quoting hurricane23:
Cold-core with some chance at being named sts.

Obviously the potential for flooding down in the tropics this time of the year always exist. Almost gave in to the trigger happy gfs. The system of the southeast is cold-core in general with some chance at being named sts.

Not to different from andrea back in 07.



The difference with this system coming up compared to Andrea will be the amount of moisture. Andrea was a very dry and cool system as this one has loads of tropical moisture to tap and wrap all the way around the system. Just look at all the rain and thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas this morning. I remember temps in the low 60's with dewpoints in the upper 40's in C FL as Andrea was close by.
Quoting Weather456:


This year really makes 2005 look small in terms of SSTs.


It really does and from here on out the only way is up.

The SSTs are at record warmth for the year in the atlantic region ... around the ITZ.
737. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey IKE, As this ULL drops in Next Tues and Wed, there could severe wx in your area due to the cold air aloft.


I see the increased rain chances for here early next week. Probably will be higher then what they have listed now.

What happens if Haiti floods from a weak disturbance?

Many will die...it's as simple as that...the situation there is dire...hundreds of thousands still living in refugee camps...violence is epidemic...especially against women, as well as children, people with disabilities and the elderly...
Heavy rain for Hati and a STS

6z NOGAPS
The Deepwater Horizon oil spill trajectory ensemble forecast from different numerical models

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
98% of the gulf is at or above 26C



This time 5 years ago...



Weather forecasters in Orlando were discussing this last night as they said they haven't seen the Gulf this warm in many years. Tampa and Orlando mets are really concerned about this years hurricane season because of the record SST. They also said the Caribbean temps are warm enough to support a Cat. 3 or 4 Hurricane right now.
That SST that StormChaser posted shows really well that the loop current is about to shed an eddy. That circle of extra warmth..
743. IKE
Still see a low spinning over and near the Yucatan peninsula.
So we have NOGAPS, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the CMC all saying a Tropical cyclone might develop in a few days.. this is when now I start giving the models merrit that there might be something soon. I place my bets for a TS in the Caribbean at around 35%, I was thinking 20% yesterday. For a Sub-Tropical cyclone I put the odds at 10%, anything that forms will most likely be completely cold core IMO.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Weather forecasters in Orlando were discussing this last night as they said they haven't seen the Gulf this warm in many years. Tampa and Orlando mets are really concerned about this years hurricane season because of the record SST. They also said the Caribbean temps are warm enough to support a Cat. 3 or 4 Hurricane right now.

So the history of Audrey(1957)can be repeated
Quoting Skyepony:
That SST that StormChaser posted shows really well that the loop current is about to shed an eddy. That circle of extra warmth..


For better analysis:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Weather forecasters in Orlando were discussing this last night as they said they haven't seen the Gulf this warm in many years. Tampa and Orlando mets are really concerned about this years hurricane season because of the record SST. They also said the Caribbean temps are warm enough to support a Cat. 3 or 4 Hurricane right now.


Some of the Tampa mets are already doing informal "tropical updates" almost nightly because the gulf is so warm.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Weather forecasters in Orlando were discussing this last night as they said they haven't seen the Gulf this warm in many years. Tampa and Orlando mets are really concerned about this years hurricane season because of the record SST. They also said the Caribbean temps are warm enough to support a Cat. 3 or 4 Hurricane right now.


I see much concern around the gulf, is the Atlantic warmer than normal?
With nothing stopping this cold pool, a moderate Nina seems plausible by September.

Quoting doabarrelroll:


I see much concern around the gulf, is the Atlantic warmer than normal?


Just updated a few minutes ago...

The whole basin is above normal:

10 days ago:





Today:

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


For better analysis:


That's text book there.. No wonder the models have differed so. What a volitile moment to be trying to forecast the loop current. Wonder which side most the oil swept down that way ended up on.. Maybe we'll get a good sat pass today.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning all!

Off to preform analysis, and get my kid out to school.
Good morning. Look forward to your analysis.
757. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Developing La Nina.


Slightly cooling Atlantic SST's due to a stronger than normal high (for the moment).

Quoting CycloneUK:
10 days ago:





Today:



Its amazing how quickly the El Nino has collapsed, I wouldn't be surprised if by mid this year there's a moderate La Nina.
CNN this morning - interview with the sec of the Interior - he says they are disbanding the minerals management agency.
It is appearing more likely that a subtropical storm, with the real possibility of transitioning to a fully tropical entity, will form off the Southeast coast. The consensus among the majority computer models is to have the system hook around back towards the U.S. The 850mb temperatures on both the ECMWF and the GFS along with the cyclone phase diagrams reveal a warm core system embedded within a 500mb trough of the east coast. This system could impact anywhere from North Carolina all the way down to Florida. I place development chances at moderate to high in this region over the next 7 days.

Another concern is low pressure development in the southern Caribbean. The CMC and NOGAPS show development of a strong tropical storm while the GFS and ECMWF only hint at that possibility. The GFS and CMC move it northward while the NOGAPS moves it in a more northeast fashion. I place development chances at moderate.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Even the NAM has some variation of the possible sub tropical low.



I would consider using the NAM since this is more of a subtropical storm
Quoting StormW:


Developing La Nina.

Yes. Based on the NAO forecast and CFS monthly MSLP mean, I'm expecting a full recovery.


Indeed, looks that way.

Occasionally Laila has blown up a blob to the west like it might try & make it to the Arabian Sea..Had to give it the slim outside chance of doing so..Definitely been leaning left of the models. Land is hurting her..
Quoting Drakoen:


I would consider using the NAM since this is more of a subtropical storm


Yes, the NAM was the best model for coastal storms last winter. So I guess you could consider this a variation of a coastal storm, but that may be a bit of a stretch. Either way, it should be interesting to see how it handles it in the coming runs.
Quoting Drakoen:


I would consider using the NAM since this is more of a subtropical storm


Interesting
Thanks Drak good synopsis
6z NAM

Closed low in 24 hours.

Quoting Weather456:


Interesting


?
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


For better analysis:



So it appears that a bunch of that oil now being pulled into the Loop Current may become trapped in that eddy as it breaks off and drift West to Texas beaches instead of Florida. It is looking like everyone will get to share BP's love.

Here is a discussion on the Loop Current by Dr. Masters that I found with Google... The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current: A Primer
2005/2010 may 20 anomaly chart comparison.

Good morning gang!

Maybe we will get some better model support today for the "upcomming" storms.
A large wedge tornado has parked itself right above the 'E' volcano...

or it could be ash... either or ...


http://www.sat24.com/Eyjafjallajokull-volcano.aspx
The deviation among the ECMWFEPS is small reflecting high confidence of the low position just of the southeast coast:

If we could get a STS here along the SE coast, believe it or not, it would be very welcome. Ironically since April 1st it has been one of the driest periods on record after one of the wettest winters on record. Here in Charleston we have only received about an inch of rain since April 1st.
A nicely vertically stack low pressure system

500 mb heights (color) vs MSLP.

Quoting aquak9:


been watching every video I can. At the beginning, the oil was coming out, and flowing almost straight up, in big pooofs. Now, the most recent video, shows the oil going further out horizontally, before curving upwards.

My thinking is either the pressure behind the flow has increased, or the oil itself has changed to a thicker, heavier type.

Got past the colostrum, do we? could be, I suppose. (but what do I know?)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
6z NAM

Closed low in 24 hours.



Cant see the image, close low where?
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Good morning gang!

Maybe we will get some better model support today for the "upcomming" storms.


Morning...which storms are you referring to. Storms over Texas or storms in the Atlantic?
FROM JAX NWS

LONG TERM...SUN-WED. GFS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WELL NE OF THE AREA AND A LOW PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT E
OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE ELY LLVL FLOW FOR THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOLUTIONS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF INCREASED
MEAN LAYER MOISTURE FOR THE AREA. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AS THE ASSOCD MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
NE OF THE BAHAMAS RETROGRADES TOWARD THE SE U.S. COAST BUT WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED AT 30%. TSTMS CHANCES MAY BE ONLY SLIGHT GIVEN COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. AT THE LEAST...BREEZY
COASTAL NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TUE AND WED IF MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE
CORRECT.

Quoting doabarrelroll:


Cant see the image, close low where?


here

NE of Bahamas

Quoting Weather456:


Morning...which storms are you referring to. Storms over Texas or storms in the Atlantic?


The STS off te SE coast and the Carrib low. Looks as if the STS may have more model support.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:
Where are CycloneOz and Tornadodude?

More important - How are they?


I'm doing well. Better than ever...and busier than a bee here at home.

tornadodude and his friend, last I heard, had decided to end their chase mission which is roundly viewed as a total success...and head for home.

They should get home today.

Well done, young men! Your work out in the field this past week has been stellar! :)
Quoting JamesSA:



So it appears that a bunch of that oil now being pulled into the Loop Current may become trapped in that eddy as it breaks off and drift West to Texas beaches instead of Florida. It is looking like everyone will get to share BP's love.

Here is a discussion on the Loop Current by Dr. Masters that I found with Google... The Gulf of Mexico Loop Current: A Primer

Assuming they do actually stop the oil fairly soon, any oil that gets "trapped" by the loop current eddy would not make it to Texas for months...likely nothing left to foul TX beaches...
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS

Excerpts:

CFS PREDICTS COLD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP, REACHING THE NOMINAL -0.5 C CRITERION FOR LA NINA CONDITIONS JUST AFTER MJJ 2010. CFS PREDICTS NINO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES TO HOLD AT ABOUT -0.6 C THROUGH ASO 2010, AND THEN COOL TO BELOW -1.0 C JUST AFTER SON 2010.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2010 INDICATES THAT THE CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ELEVATED OVER THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITY FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE INTERIOR WEST, INTERIOR ALASKA, THE GULF COAST, AND SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR JJA 2010 INDICATES INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE DAKOTAS, THE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA (BASED ON THE CAS). THE PREDICTION OF ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM CON, CFS, IRI, ECP, AND CAS. THE DRY SIGNAL IN THE NORTHWEST IS BASED ON CON, WHICH IS DOMINATED BY TREND THERE.
6z GFS Progged it right over the Gulf Stream, warm corred but shallow...
Quoting Drakoen:
It is appearing more likely that a subtropical storm, with the real possibility of transitioning to a fully tropical entity, will form off the Southeast coast. The consensus among the majority computer models is to have the system hook around back towards the U.S. The 850mb temperatures on both the ECMWF and the GFS along with the cyclone phase diagrams reveal a warm core system embedded within a 500mb trough of the east coast. This system could impact anywhere from North Carolina all the way down to Florida. I place development chances at moderate to high in this region over the next 7 days.

Another concern is low pressure development in the southern Caribbean. The CMC and NOGAPS show development of a strong tropical storm while the GFS and ECMWF only hint at that possibility. The GFS and CMC move it northward while the NOGAPS moves it in a more northeast fashion. I place development chances at moderate.


Feeling a bit more confident in a hybrid low in the SW Atlantic this morning. Whether it gets named or not is anyone's guess, but the Euro appears to be showing it deepening due to convective processes.

SST's in the area are in the mid-upper 70s.
Quoting Chucktown:
If we could get a STS here along the SE coast, believe it or not, it would be very welcome. Ironically since April 1st it has been one of the driest periods on record after one of the wettest winters on record. Here in Charleston we have only received about an inch of rain since April 1st.


Carolinas down to Florida could see 2 to as much as 6 to 8" of rain as all of this deep tropical moisture wraps itself around the ULL from the Bahamas. I think big rain event is looming for the SE US coast. N Carolina may get robbed as all the rain may stay just off shore as the low moves NW then veers SW toward NE FL.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


The STS off te SE coast and the Carrib low. Looks as if the STS may have more model support.


Correct. And more models foresee something along the lines of 60 mph or greater.

I do not think the SW Carib disturbance will surpass 50 mph.
NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Outlook released yesterday or today.

Predicting below normal activity in the Central Pacific, likely due to La Nina.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Assuming they do actually stop the oil fairly soon, any oil that gets "trapped" by the loop current eddy would not make it to Texas for months...likely nothing left to foul TX beaches...

That is unfortunately a very big assumption at this point.
Changes to NHC Products for 2010

TWOs now to the nearest 10%

The genesis forecasts for the risk of tropical cyclone development will be provided to nearest 10 percent, in both the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks. In previous years, only risk categories (low/medium/high) were given.

Quoting Weather456:


Correct. And more models foresee something along the lines of 60 mph or greater.

I do not think the SW Carib disturbance will surpass 50 mph.


I'm not sold on the SW Caribbean although by the Yucatan yes as there appears to be a low there with convection off to the N and Eastern side of it.
It's starting to look more possible for the Subtropical storm to form rather then the Caribbean storm. The GFS and EURO had dropped the potential for the Caribbean storm to form, but has greatly increased the potential for a Subtropical storm to form, then transition to a pure Tropical Cyclone. In fact, the EURO strengthens it to a moderately strong Tropical Storm AFTER passing Florida, heading out to sea. I can see it looping due where the High Pressure would be, it can't go north, so it dives south, then catches a trough, pulls away from the USA and heads out like Andrea in 2007 did.
Quoting Weather456:


Correct. And more models foresee something along the lines of 60 mph or greater.

I do not think the SW Carib disturbance will surpass 50 mph.


Thanks!

I hope all the rain starved people along the east coast get some much needed rain but nothing worse.

Genesis of Andrea is a bit similar to what is forecast with Alex-wannabe

Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


Thanks!

I hope all the rain starved people along the east coast get some much needed rain but nothing worse.



I would welcome it here in Gville. It would be nice.
Quoting reedzone:
It's starting to look more possible for the Subtropical storm to form rather then the Caribbean storm. The GFS and EURO had dropped the potential for the Caribbean storm to form, but has greatly increased the potential for a Subtropical storm to form, then transition to a pure Tropical Cyclone. In fact, the EURO strengthens it to a moderately strong Tropical Storm AFTER passing Florida, heading out to sea. I can see it looping due where the High Pressure would be, it can't go north, so it dives south, then catches a trough, pulls away from the USA and heads out like Andrea in 2007 did.


You Can't compare this to Andrea because the airmass around Andrea was very cool and dry. If you remeber our temps were low 60's with 40 degree dewpoints. This system appears like it may make landfall in NE FL as a strong Sub/Tropical storm and then drop south toward orlando before ejecting ENE. But that maybe a big if as well as I think this storm may sit over Florida for days due to a reinforcing high that is progged to build back over the NE late next week.
Quoting Weather456:
Genesis of Andrea is a bit different from what is forecast with Alex-wannabe



Oh I know, I meant track wise when it got to the East Coast, it dived south and a trough caught it, pulled it out to sea when it turned Extratropical. Look at that big popcorn storm! haha
May 25 2009 - Last year's 91L which became TD 1. Except this year we have a blocking high instead of an advancing trough



Current set up then

Quoting JamesSA:

That is unfortunately a very big assumption at this point.

The months part isn't; that is how long it takes those eddies to move across the Gulf. Prolly will be there through September to help out any TC that passes over it (yay).

Oil is biodegradable, breaking down the entire time it is in the ocean. Sure, it is an assumption that there will be nothing left to effect the TX coast, but some reasoning behind it.

EDIT: Oh you mean about them actually stopping the flow...yeah, big assumption. (Gotta happen sometime, right?)
Quoting reedzone:


Oh I know, I meant track wise when it got to the East Coast, it dived south and a trough caught it, pulled it out to sea when it turned Extratropical. Look at that big popcorn storm! haha


I edited the post.
Quoting Weather456:


I edited the post.


Oh yeah, just saw that, thanks.
The oil issue and the possibility of the current trail getting "trapped" in a detached loop eddy might be another possibility....Either way (whether on the way towards the Keys, or, looping around in an eddy) is a huge problem;...Last thing we need is a "dead zone" in the middle of the Gulf undeneath the lingering eddy if oil is entrained in it.


Highlights:

1. Warm Atlantic
2. Cool Nino 3.4 region
3. Cool Gulf of Guinea
7 AM Tomorrow: 12z NAM

Plenty of rain all morning here in Turks & Caicos, lightning increasing... just struck about 1/2 mile away...

time to unplug...

cul

CRS
Quoting atmoaggie:

The months part isn't; that is how long it takes those eddies to move across the Gulf. Prolly will be there through September to help out any TC that passes over it (yay).

Oil is biodegradable, breaking down the entire time it is in the ocean. Sure, it is an assumption that there will be nothing left to effect the TX coast, but some reasoning behind it.

No, I meant the big assumption is that they will get the leak stopped soon.

I watched the oil from the Ixtoc blowout slowly biodegrade over a period of a couple of decades. The lighter components of the oil do indeed dissipate or evaporate fairly rapidly. What was left was black gooey tarballs and larger slabs that floated around in the gulf for 10 to 20 years. The gradually became harder and more dried out, until finally barnacles and such would attach to them. It takes a very long time for the tar like stuff to truly go away.

The kind of 'dissipation' they are talking about now is really just 'dilution'.
May 2005: We did not know what record SSTs could do.

Summer 2005: We found out

May 2010: We now know what record SSTs can do.

Summer 2010: We will find out.
DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010


The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..









Oil arrives on shore; 'top kill' method to stop leak planned for Sunday

by Michael Kunzelman and Greg Bluestein / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 20, 2010 at 7:16 AM

Updated today at 8:49 AM
Gallery



NEW ORLEANS -- Heavy, sticky oil from a massive monthlong spill was starting to clog Louisiana marshes on the Gulf of Mexico as another edge of the partly submerged crude reached a powerful current that could take it to Florida and beyond.

Brown ooze that coated marsh grasses and hung in the shallow water of a wetland at Louisiana's southeastern tip was the first heavy oil seen on shore since a BP seafloor well blew out following an April 20 rig explosion. Gov. Bobby Jindal declared Wednesday it was just the outer edge of the real spill, much heavier than the
oily sheen seen before.

"This is the heavy oil that everyone's been fearing that is here now," Jindal said during a boat tour. The wetlands at the mouth of the Mississippi are home to rare birds, mammals and a wide variety of marine life.

BP PLC was marshaling equipment and conducting tests Thursday ahead of a new effort to choke off the oil's flow. Crews hoped that by Sunday they can start the "top kill," which involves pumping heavy mud into the crippled equipment on top of the well, then permanently sealing it with cement.

The procedure has been used before to halt gushing oil above ground, but like other methods BP is exploring it has never been used 5,000 feet below the sea. That's why scientists and engineers have spent much of the last week preparing for the complex operation and taking a series of measurements to make sure that the
mission doesn't backfire.

"The philosophy from the beginning is not to take any action which could make the situation worse, and those are the final steps we're doing," said Doug Suttles, BP's chief operating officer.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Wednesday that a small portion of the slick had entered the so-called loop current, a stream of faster moving water that circulates around the Gulf before bending around Florida and up the Atlantic coast. Its arrival may portend a wider environmental catastrophe affecting the Florida Keys and tourist-dotted beaches along that state's east coast.
Quoting Patrap:
DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010


The Marsh is the nursery for 70% of all Marine Life in the GOM..











BP's Chernobyl. :-(
I can't believe some people out there are still advocating for the expansion of drilling in the gulf. It just amazes me that there is such a lack of caring about the environment. I guess the entire gulf has to be full of oil and dead sea life before some people care.
Oil in Pass a Loutre


Oil in Pass a Loutre
Added by Ted Jackson, The Times-Picayune on May 19, 2010 at 5:21 PM

PHOTO BY TED JACKSON / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE An oily mess inundates the Roseau Grasses that mark the coastline of Southeast Louisiana at Pass a Loutre at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser and La. Gov. Bobby Jindal tour Pass a Loutre where oil has washed ashore, especially on the western side of South Pass, Wednesday, May 19, 2010.
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72 hours of submitting the list of alternatives.

Quoting Weather456:
May 2005: We did not know what record SSTs could do.

Summer 2005: We found out

May 2010: We now know what record SSTs can do.

Summer 2010: We will find out.


I like that.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72hours of submitting the list of alternatives.



What chemicals were they using at first?
816. Patrick, in your best educated guess, does this "top kill method" have shot at working?
Quoting Weather456:


What chemicals were they using at first?


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used
826. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used


What a mess this all is^^^


.............

12Z NAM @ 84 hours...moisture headed for the mid-Atlantic coast..

This aint happened yet...


Markey to Get Live Feed of BP Oil Spill on Website

BP Acquiesces to Markey’s Request, Will Release Video Stream Tonight to Chairman

May 19, 2010 – Following a demand from Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) for a live feed of the BP oil spill to be made publicly available on the web, BP said they would release the feed and it will be shown on Rep. Markey’s committee website at www.globalwarming.house.gov. The release of the live link to Rep. Markey is expected tonight.

“This may be BP’s footage, but it’s America’s ocean. Now anyone will be able to see the real-time effects the BP spill is having on our ocean,” said Rep. Markey, who conducted a briefing today with independent scientists where he reiterated the call for a video feed. “This footage will aid analysis by independent scientists blocked by BP from coming to see the spill.”

Markey sent letters earlier today to BP America’s CEO Lamar McKay asking for the footage to be made public on BP’s website. If BP could not host the footage, Rep. Markey offered to host it on his website free of charge.

“BP is going to have to pay for the cleanup of this spill and the long-term damage. Hosting this video on our website is the only freebie they’re going to get,” Rep. Markey said.

The letter sent to McKay today can be found here.

Rep. Markey has frequently queried BP for more information on the exact size of the spill and on their refusal to engage with outside scientists. Independent scientists have examined video, satellite photos and other aspects of the spill and determined that it may be much bigger than estimated. Today at a briefing Rep. Markey held in his Energy and Environment Subcommittee, independent scientists from Purdue University and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution said that the estimate of a 5,000 barrel per day leak was an underestimation of the flow. The scientists said with more data, they could better calculate the flow of oil from the sea floor.

"This is 4th grade math. We know the numerator here—the couple thousand barrels a day BP is siphoning out of the sunken pipe. But we still don’t know the denominator," said Rep. Markey. "BP is capturing a fraction of the oil, but they don’t know what that fraction is. By releasing this video, we’ve taken the first step towards allowing better access to the information BP has about this spill."
Good morning, from the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WITH CONVECTION.

In an article published online this morning someone spoke about the BP situation same as if the perpetrators of a crime were being permitted to control access to the crime scene.

Quoting NttyGrtty:
816. Patrick, in your best educated guess, does this "top kill method" have shot at working?
I hope so. What happens if they can,t stop it? I cannot imagine the hellish scenario.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


From the article:

BP has been using two forms of dispersants, Corexit 9500A and Corexit 9527A, and so far has applied 600,000 gallons on the surface and 55,000 underwater.

On Monday, Rep. Edward J. Markey (D-Mass.) sent a letter to EPA administrator Lisa P. Jackson questioning the approach, given that Britain banned more than a decade ago some formulations of the dispersant, Corexit, that is now being used


As someone who studied environmental sciences and is a big fan of the environment I am more than upset with this oil, but have kept the anger to myself.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EPA informs BP to use less toxic chemicals to break up oil spill

Excerpt:

The Environmental Protection Agency informed BP officials late Wednesday that the company has 24 hours to choose a less toxic form of chemical dispersants to break up its oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to government sources familiar with the decision, and must apply the new form of dispersants within 72 hours of submitting the list of alternatives.


But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


In 24 hours it has the low at 1013 mb, then at 48 hours 1011 mb, and at 72 hours 1009 mb with a possible gale.
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


I agree!

All of these administrators are acting like fools.

Yes you can one day, No you can't the next. Makes no sense at all!
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


...especially because it is obvious that neither the left nor right hand know what the other is doing.... or more likely, the EPA is so used to rubberstamping whatever the oil industry wants, there is no process of discernment in place.
Dismal fo sho.
awsome shot of "E"

Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......
If the do not close off that well, imagine how much more money it will cost our country as we try to contain this spill. And money is tight right now.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, from the 8 a.m. NHC Discussion:

EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W WITH CONVECTION.


where will it go?
Quoting pottery:

But the EPA gave permission to use this dispersant about 10 days ago.
Now, they are convinced that it is a bad idea. ????
Who is making these ridiculous decisions?
Good Lord, lend a hand......


It appears when EPA gave the original approval they required monitoring, which is showing lower levels of oxygen at certain depths, which may be the reason they are requiring the switch.
New Blog

Obviously, no lessons were learned from the Katrina debacle.
I wonder if anything will be learned from this?
Is there a Disaster Response agency of some kind in the US?
I dont mean the ability to send troops in. I mean an Authority that has a mandate to react to ALL and ANY disasters, with people involved who are Independent of other agencies?
Crap happens, all the time. And when it does it matters not who did what.
Quick, meaningfull reaction is all that matters.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It appears when EPA gave the original approval they required monitoring, which is showing lower levels of oxygen at certain depths, which may be the reason they are requiring the switch.

OK. But I imagine that ANY dispersant is going to change the chemistry of the water. Because, the oil is still there, for one thing. It only "disperses". ie, the plan is to have the particles release one from the other.
Hi Potts. These are what is called in the public administration lingo "wicked problems." Unfortunately, under these circumstances, our agencies appear inept and uncoordinated. This is a problem most obviously brought to light during Katrina. Since that time, the academians are pushing efforts for public bureacratic boundaries to become more porous and flexible and mid-managers be more empowered so that appropriate action can be quickly applied from a variety of sources all best equipped to handle an emerging crisis situation.
The "top down" approach is the worst management to use in public administration because it takes so long for information to flow in either direction.
It appears the "flat" theories of management and organizing numerous crisis teams of a triage nature trained to handle wicked problems are still mainly studied in the classroom. Not long ago, we had a local environmental professional, think it was an inspector of sorts, jumping up and down on the blog over the spill, tearing hair out over why this was not being treated as an emergency. These are the sorts of people who need to be in charge of these kinds of matters and have all of the resources they need at their disposal. The professionals who are closest to the problem understand it the best. Not the BP executives who have been given free reign to control the situation.
The current CIMMS sheer tendency chart is forcasting a drop over the Bahamas over the next 24 hours.....Issue is whether there will be enough energy there for something to actually form.......Can't beleive we are having this discussion in late-May when the normal time-period for this region, climatologically, is not until July.
1 Month Later, Numbers Just Get Worse for Gulf

Scope of Oil Spill Crisis Grows as Efforts to Contain it Become More Desperate

(CBS/AP) One month after an explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caused a massive oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, officials from both the government and oil company British Petroleum continue to struggle to manage the crisis.

Heavy, sticky oil was starting to clog Louisiana marshes on the Gulf of Mexico as another edge of the partly submerged crude reached a powerful current that could take it to Florida and beyond.

BP is successfully siphoning off at least a portion of the oil spewing into the Gulf after hooking up a mile-long tube that connects the blown-out well to a tanker. Officials also are preparing an attempt to "kill" the well shooting a mixture known as drilling mud into it. Those efforts are expected to take place this weekend.

But one of the persistent storylines is the huge discrepancy between BP's estimate of the amount of oil flowing into the Gulf and those of independent scientists. Since the April 20 explosion, BP officials placed the flow rate at 5,000 barrels a day, or 210,000 gallons - a figure accepted by the government and widely reported as accurate. Those estimates put the total amount of oil spilt into the Gulf at around 6 million gallons.

However, after BP succumbed to pressure to release video footage of the blown-out well, those numbers have fallen under intense scrutiny. Steve Wereley, a mechanical engineer at Purdue University in Indiana, told The Associated Press that he is sticking with his estimate that 3.9 million gallons a day is spewing from two leaks.

"I don't see any scenario where (BP's) numbers would be accurate," he said at a congressional hearing Wednesday.

His estimate of the amount leaked to date, which he calls conservative and says has a margin of error of plus or minus 20 percent, is 126 million gallons - or more than 11 times the total leaked from the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989.
Hi all, I've been a lurker here for a couple of years and figured it was probably time to actually register.

Look forward to an exciting summer!
Anyway, I suppose the Fed policy has been, "It's your mess, clean it up." Unfortunately, that strategy isn't working.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


In 24 hours it has the low at 1013 mb, then at 48 hours 1011 mb, and at 72 hours 1009 mb with a possible gale.


And so it begins
Quoting JamesSA:





So haven't seen the loop current recently- I knew about the eddy to the NE of the loop currrent, but not the one further south.

Question - It appears that the 2nd, newer eddy may be doing two things:
A) returning some (50% ?)of the flow of the loop current back towards the southwest, and;
B) Increasing the speed at which the current flows towards the southwest, due to two "gears" flowing in opposite directions, thus compressing the current and speeding it up.

My questions are:

Because some of the warm water is being re-routed back into the loop, is it possible that this will increase the overall temperature of the loop current itself? If the base temperature of the surrounding water is warmer, does this not mean that the temperature of the loop current will be higher as well?

Also - Because there appears to be a very quick current from approx 26N moving southwesterly, and at near purpendicular(sp*) to the northward flowing side, is there any possibility that the entire northern half of the loop current can be "sliced" off? In other words, if the 2nd eddy has enough water moving at 90 degrees (angle, not temp) to the other current, can that current force the loop current to take a track that goes from west to east, and (temporarily) skips the "loop"? If so, what would happen to the massive loop that was sliced off? Would it be the equivalent of a super-sized eddy?

I'd like to see what you guys think on this - I intentionally left out the oil spill, as that is a whole new ballgame if any of what I said is possible. Feel free to post on that if ya like.

Dr. M, StormW, 456, Levi - thanks in advance for your responses if you get the chance.

Quoting Chicklit:
Anyway, I suppose the Fed policy has been, "It's your mess, clean it up." Unfortunately, that strategy isn't working.


Hi Chicklet,
What should be being done that's not being done, and what's needed that isn't being supplied? TIA
852. MahFL
Quoting NCRusty:
Hi all, I've been a lurker here for a couple of years and figured it was probably time to actually register.

Look forward to an exciting summer!


And fall/early winter....lol.
And no I don't want people to lose their houses, but nature will do what it wants, and it can be terrifingly exciting.
Quoting MahFL:


And fall/early winter....lol.
And no I don't want people to lose their houses, but nature will do what it wants, and it can be terrifingly exciting.


I do believe you've just created the catch-phrase for the Blog. At least during an active part of a season:

Terrifyingly Exciting
Regarding dispersants, dead sea turtles were turning up on the beaches right away, with no signs of oil. That should have been a red flag right away. Last I heard there were 174 dead sea turtles found. I believe that is an endangered species isn't it? The EPA gave the green light on permitting in the first place; so like it or not, the government is responsible as well for both this mess and the clean up. What is especially hard to believe is given the environment, proximity to shore, there were not more safeguards in place and very little planning for the worst-case scenario which is where we are now.

It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest.
We have lost our way.
Our Islands in the Stream are Islands in Distress.
855. MahFL
Blame the Oil Lobbyists and the American political system.
With all due respect, focus needs to be steadfast on prevention and cure at this point. We all know what got us here.
What's done is done. Dead is dead.
I find it hard to believe that anyone in the government doesn't want this catastrophe to be repaired. That they (as in everyone) were betting on never having to deal with a disaster of this type is another story. It seems to me that whatever assets are needed to deal with this are still being realized.
The EPA has given BP 24 hrs to come up with a less toxic dispersant. People are trying. Just because they make mistakes, doesn't mean they're evil.

Statements such as, "It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest" is true, but suggests that which is untrue. Or highly debatable at the very least. Citizens of this country who comprise the members of our government - despite occasional policies that might suggest otherwise - are not out to destroy the USA. Even the Bush/Cheney administrations (whom I loathed) weren't out to hurt the country, despite some policies and decisions that achieved exactly that.
And saying, "We have lost our way" is just plain discouraging and is not helpful.
Help with the solution Chicklet.
Everybody.
Help.
Quoting pottery:

Obviously, no lessons were learned from the Katrina debacle.
I wonder if anything will be learned from this?
Is there a Disaster Response agency of some kind in the US?
I don't mean the ability to send troops in. I mean an Authority that has a mandate to react to ALL and ANY disasters, with people involved who are Independent of other agencies?
Crap happens, all the time. And when it does it matters not who did what.
Quick, meaningful reaction is all that matters.


There used to be; FEMA was, at one time, a free standing Federal Agency...in 2003 it was put under the auspices of Homeland Security and by all accounts, their performance has been abysmal ever since
Quoting Chicklit:
Regarding dispersants, dead sea turtles were turning up on the beaches right away, with no signs of oil. That should have been a red flag right away. Last I heard there were 174 dead sea turtles found. I believe that is an endangered species isn't it? The EPA gave the green light on permitting in the first place; so like it or not, the government is responsible as well for both this mess and the clean up. What is especially hard to believe is given the environment, proximity to shore, there were not more safeguards in place and very little planning for the worst-case scenario which is where we are now.

It's never good when government agencies are not working for the public benefit and interest.
We have lost our way.
Our Islands in the Stream are Islands in Distress.


Agreed...now is the time to get this mess stopped and at least starting on a viable clean up (what has happened so far by way of clean up has been a hippo ballet).

When all is said and done, though, the majority of the cost for this needs to come from the companies involved; despite appearances, the government agencies involved had to operate under the idea that the oil companies were working in good faith, an idea that has proven to be untrue
From latest Raleigh, NC Forecast Discussion:

... EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY... AS THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TROUGH DRIFTS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER
MONDAY WILL THEN BE DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE APPROACH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC GYRE AND INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. WILL ACCORDINGLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT-LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY
ONWARD. HOWEVER... IF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GYRE EVOLVES INTO MORE OF
A WARM CORE SYSTEM... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD GRADUALLY
CONSTRICT TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND LEAVE A DRIER SUBSIDENT
REGION ON IT/S NORTHWEST PERIPHERY (OVER A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS)
LATER IN THE PERIOD (TUE-WED).


Quoting Floodman:


Agreed...now is the time to get this mess stopped and at least starting on a viable clean up (what has happened so far by way of clean up has been a hippo ballet).

When all is said and done, though, the majority of the cost for this needs to come from the companies involved; despite appearances, the government agencies involved had to operate under the idea that the oil companies were working in good faith, an idea that has proven to be untrue


Now is not how corporations and government work. Please remember that.