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El Niño gone; La Niña on the way?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:33 PM GMT on February 28, 2007

The El Niño event of 2006-2007 is over. Ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific have cooled rapidly over the past four weeks, resulting in near-normal water temperatures and an end to the El Niño event that began in September 2006. By definition, an El Niño episode occurs when Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at least +0.5ºC above normal in the region 120°W-170°W and 5°S-5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region). SSTs in this region reached +0.5ºC above normal in September, and fell below +0.5ºC above normal in late January. A time series of the departure of SST from normal (Figure 1) shows the rapid cooling over the past four weeks to near-normal values in this El Niño 3.4 region (black box on the plots).


Figure 1. Departure of Sea Surface Temperatures from normal for the past four weeks. The black box marks the region 120°W-170°W and 5°S-5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region). Note the rapid cooling to below-normal values in portions of this box. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

What does this mean for Atlantic hurricane season?
The demise of El Niño is bad news for those living along the hurricane-prone areas of the Atlantic coast. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, as occurred in the 2006 hurricane season. It is extremely unlikely we will see a return to El Niño conditions this fall. A decay of El Niño this time of year is very rarely followed by a resurgence later in the year, and only one of the 20 or so computer models used to forecast El Niño is forecasting this to happen this year. It is much more likely that we will see a full-fledged La Niña episode develop. Indeed, La Niña may be already be well on its way--NOAA chief Conrad Lautenbacher remarked in a press release today, "we're seeing a shift to the La Nina, it's clearly in the data". He was refering to a large pool of cooler than normal waters that has developed in recent weeks in the sub-surface waters of the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. This is a prime situation for a La Niña to develop, and several of the long-range computer models are predicting La Niña conditions for the coming hurricane season (Figure 2). These models are not very reliable, however, and it is equally probable that we will see El Niño-neutral conditions--the absence of either a La Niña or El Niño--for the coming hurricane season. La Niña conditions usually cause Atlantic hurricane seasons that are much more active than average, so El Niño-neutral conditions would probably be more welcome than a La Niña. Remember, though, that the worst hurricane season on record--the infamous Hurricane Season of 2005--occurred with El Niño-neutral conditions. I am expecting a much more active hurricane season than the mild season of 2006 as a result of this month's demise of El Niño.


Figure 2. Computer model forecasts of the departure of SST from normal in the region 120°W-170°W and 5°S-5°N (called the Niño 3.4 region). Temperatures +0.5ºC above normal in this region indicate an El Niño episode; temperatures -0.5ºC below normal indicate an La Niña. Three of the 14 models plotted predict La Niña conditions during the upcoming hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October), one model predicts El Niño conditions, and the other ten predict El Niño-neutral conditions. Image credit: International Research Institute ofr Climate and Society.

I'd like to welcome our new featured blogger, Mike Theiss! Mike is a professional weather photographer and storm chaser, and will be sharing his awesome storm photos with us for the coming tornado season. He also documents all landfalling U.S. hurricanes (check out his amazing Katrina videos), so tune in this hurricane season to his blog!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

New stuff to Banter..Thanks
2nd..thanks Dr.Masters!
Last years Grace gives way to a more active period..Maybe.Points to ponder on that beaucoup .
Next blog (Friday), I'll compare the current SSTs in the Atlantic with those of two years ago. Are conditions similar to those experienced before the record-breaking Hurricane Season of 2005?



Cool!Dr. Masters is starting to blog on the upcoming hurricane season...only 3 months away.
So,how are you doing today Patrap?
Doing Taxes and indoor cleaning.Lifes lil chores.
Presidents coming here tommorrow.Going to get some landing pics as Im close to airport,here.
thnx for the information always welcome :)
This entry will heat up the tropical banter surly.Its Big news.A lot of speculation on the season to come as the Big Guys release the numbers too.
Temps seem warmer near the U.S. than in 2005,except for the Gulf Coast.
11th
Thanks Dr.Masters!
What do you think CSU will have in their April update?I say they'll put 18/9/5.
I guess he got me email kris but indeed all signs point to a busy season.Cant wait for that SST blog on fiday.
I dont worry about the numbers Kris.I concentrate on impacts and effects.Although increased activity indeed increases impact potential.
That's true Patrap,but more storms makes for a more interesting season,wether they hit or not.
Thanks Doc. Let's hope for a slow year.
H23,if you look at page 54 of "The 2006 Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross(I think you said you had that),it says that many devastating hurricanes come on the tail end of El Ninos
Certainly...heres the view now in the Atlantic Link
The things we need to know for next season's forecast are things that affect the atmosphere and change slowly, like the temperature of the ocean. Ocean temperatures change relatively slowly and can be very different from one year to the next, especially when there is an El Niño. El Niño involves changes in sea surface temperatures over large areas of the tropical Pacific. It's associated with year-to-year variations in the character of the seasons. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a pattern in surface pressure that can shift rainfall and temperature patterns over eastern North America and Europe.
We have lotsa way to go before the end of May...
(Sea surface temps across the atlantic)

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

(Sea surface temps across the caribbean and the gulf)

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Actually Goodwatt,ocean temps have been changing pretty fast.


Posted By: weatherboykris at 12:52 PM EST on February 28, 2007.

H23,if you look at page 54 of "The 2006 Hurricane Almanac" by Bryan Norcross(I think you said you had that),it says that many devastating hurricanes come on the tail end of El Ninos.

Yes it indeed says that.
But the tools to see and forecast are greatly improved over just 10 years ago..Thats a good thing...Link
La Niña conditions usually cause Atlantic hurricane seasons that are much more active than average.
Hi Everybody
Click to enlarge here Kris..Link
Heres the 4-way page too....Link
It's a very good thing Patrap,and it makes watching these storms much less frustrating and much more engaging.Think how boring it would be if there were just a few models,satellite images,and no microwave images.
Storm surge is simply water that is pushed toward the shore by the force of the winds swirling around the storm. This advancing surge combines with the normal tides to create the hurricane storm tide, which can increase the mean water level 15 feet or more. In addition, wind driven waves are superimposed on the storm tide. This rise in water level can cause severe flooding in coastal areas, particularly when the storm tide coincides with the normal high tides. Because much of the United States' densely populated Atlantic and Gulf Coast coastlines lie less than 10 feet above mean sea level, the danger from storm tides is tremendous.
Thanks Patrap.
These update every 3 hours ...Link
h23.......we got us another competitor.....goodwatt.is a fellow friend.....but..does he know..we are the kings of C & P?.....just a little Link
Is it normal for all this dry air to be over the Atlantic this time of year?


We're seeing a shift to the La Nina, it's clearly in the data. La Nina, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it's a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data.

I remember when we were blind almost Kris..First storm I went thru was Betsy in 65.Tiros was only available then..and amaybe a few others.Mostly ship and Rig reports back then.Ive seen ALL the big improvements and the Forecasting improve..1000%.As many here have too.
Put the mouse at the beginning of what you want to copy and click the left mouse button, holding it down while you drag over the section.

Drag across or down. At the end of what you want copied, let go of the mouse button.


What you want to copy should be highlighted!

(If you goof, click the mouse button once to unhighlight, then start over.)
While it's highlighted, hold down the Ctrl key and hit the letter "c". This copies the highlighted part to an invisible clipboard.

Now go to where you want to paste it. Put the cursor on that spot by clicking the left mouse button once. Now hold down the Ctrl key and hit the letter "v" to paste what you copied.

If you want to move text from one place to another, highlight the text then hold down the Ctrl key and hit the letter "x". Click on the place you want to move it to, hold down the Ctrl key and hit the letter "v" to paste it in the new place.
(This cuts it from the original place, copies it to the invisible clipboard and then pastes it in the new place.)

Normal is a term I stray from in the New World as I call it.Norms are no more,, seems the norm..LOL
A more favorable enviroment may indeed be in place with la nina but trofs and ridges determine who will be affected.SST are only a smally portion of what takes for a tropical cyclone to flurish.Kris if possible create a thumbnail for that large image.
lol Patrap
Heat Potential maps as of Yesterday..Link
normal..who wants to be normal....i want to be psychic..but have to settle fro strange
This Is one to have later as we get closer and into it Kris..for the GOM Link
The norm is for things to not be normal.
No heat potential there now Patrap.Your SSTs are well below average.Hope it stays that way.
Hurricane heat potential across the basin...

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Archived data too..Pull up August Last year here..for all Basins..Link
More like psycho ric.
The ramp up begins now..and really takes off early May..
(Sea surface temps across the atlantic)

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

(Sea surface temps across the caribbean and the gulf)

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

That's cause our collective crystal ball starts to clear about now Patrap...albeit slowly.
Expect first invests off of lower Texas coastal regions and above BOC. late MAy..Early June. Thats usually where we see the first Circs begin..
pyscho fits the bill nicely
..historically...Normally..MAybe..LOL
Do you see what I see?Maybe some rotation. Kind of funny how that old front is still causin' trouble severe weather-wise.It's gone from Texas and plowed through the SE.
we could very well see a year similar to 1999 were most activity was turned away.It all will depend on how steering currents set up this year.
Yea kris but cloud-cover yesterday really put the caps on severe weather down here across south florida.
ok.....h23.....a forecast...we're not allowed that...now....was 99 a la nina event also?...actually seriously askin for once...gotta run to lunch and not gonna google.....enjoy boys and girls....a little cooler shoppin for the missus i'm gonna do
Yes ric...'99 was La Nina.Still,not all was turned away.Floyd,Dennis,and Irene all hit the U.S.
yes it was ricderr.
There's another dryline in Texas.Removed the map...it stretched the blog.
Floyd was really nerve wrecking for alot of people across florida cause if that monster did not turn it would have total disaster around here.
Did anyone else hear about what happened to Max Mayfield?You may have heard he caught a 200 pound fish on first day off...the Feds are investigating 'cause it's species is endangered.
He could end up with community service.
That might've been the one Patrap.
Max Mayfield,comunnity service LOL!..."Irony, to a whole nuthha Lebel!"..
No..thats a pic from 05 I believe.I posted that last H season.
I know Patrap...ironic.Very ironic.
Oh,hmmm.I geuss that fish doesn't look 200 pounds anyway.LOL
But more odd....he took a fishing trip during 2005?I geuss he wasn't busy the whole time,but still.
Observation IS the Key Kris.You figured that out.
After the season or before Im sure.
The season didn't end 'till January,LOL.That was insane.No break from June to January.
Will be a living memory for Generations 05 ..for sure.
Yep,no one along the Gulf or Atlantic coasts who was there for it will ever forget that.
What was seen in 2005 is a season that occurs once every 50 years and its very likely that the likes of that wont be around for a long time.
From the article:

MIAMI (CNN) -- Hurricane Floyd picked up considerable steam Sunday, becoming a Category 4 storm that the National Weather Service calls "extremely dangerous."

The NHC called it that.Not a big deal,but yet another example of the media's ignorance or carelessness that Norcross harps about in the almanac.
Heres How 1 storm can ruin your day.Link
Galvestons seawall...Link
You know,when did they start issuing tornado warnings as the eyewall is making landfall?That's pretty confusing,in my opinion.They have an 'eyewall wind warning' at their disposal,yet I still see tornado warnings used.
If RITA would of Hit Galveston proper..Link
Floyd was a nightmare on the East coast of central FL. I have never seen more people truelly scared of a hurricane.
neighorhood specific rotations can be tracked and warned as Hurricanes come in for decades..especially since doppler has been available.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.


* UNTIL 245 PM EST

* AT 136 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MARGATE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE STORM WILL AFFECT...
MARGATE
DEERFIELD BEACH
POMPANO BEACH
OAKLAND PARK
WILTON MANORS
FORT LAUDERDALE
WFUS52 KMFL 281842
TORMFL
FLC011-281930-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0001.070228T1842Z-070228T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.


* UNTIL 230 PM EST

* AT 140 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR NORTH
LAUDERDALE...OR ABOUT NEAR TAMARAC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
NORTH LAUDERDALE BY 140 PM EST.
POMPANO BEACH BY 145 PM EST.
LAUDERDALE LAKES BY 150 PM EST.
OAKLAND PARK BY 155 PM EST.
FORT LAUDERDALE BY 200 PM EST.
FORT LAUDERDALE BY 205 PM EST.
Every coastal community is at risk.But each storm presents differnts scenarioas ,such as angle of impact..tides..surge level..etc.No 2 are EVER the same..in a given area or locale.
I know Patrap...but they issue tornado warnings when there aren't any tornadoes on radar or observations. CNN met. said those are issued to alert people to treat the storm like a tornado.Seems confusing to me.Doesn't matter,I geuss.
thought that might be coming H23.
Knew it was rotating.
TVS noted moving se ..TAKE cover...Link
Pretty hefty winds on the next to last image.


Someone find a Ft Lauderdale webcam..
Close-up view of thunderstorm!

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
TVS is off.
LOL!
LOL what?
This isn't exactly an 'LOL' situation.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

FLC011-281930-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070228T1930Z/
BROWARD FL-
147 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 145 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A POSSIBLE TORNADO. THE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR NORTH LAUDERDALE...OR ABOUT NEAR
TAMARAC...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
Found Dat storms edge HERE...Link
The wall cloud rotating ..now looks roped out in the upper right.
Still missing what you're laughin' at H23.
Still lots of tips dancing along the edge,Radar shows HAil too....good confidence.Link
THAT is the WArned cell..we could see someting here if we stay with it..Link
Thats a west NW view..a perfect lucky chance on seeing this one.Hoped the warnings are out. Link
Posted By: weatherboykris at 1:53 PM EST on February 28, 2007.

Still missing what you're laughin' at H23.

We all posted radar links almost at the same time.
I hope someones taking a look at the middle of this,.. the cloud dipping Link
Not good news Patrap.H23,you watch this thing when it get's to you.
Lightening Bad I bet around the view...thats the killer in Fla..best to be INDOORS.Not OUT gawking up.Link
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
155 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING HILLSBORO BEACH

* UNTIL 300 PM EST

* AT 153 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HILLSBORO BEACH...OR ABOUT 5 MILES WEST OF LAUDERDALE
BY THE SEA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

Patrap, by looking at that Katrina N.O. flooding map, its actually not entirely accurate. The water went further south, past S. Claiborne, towards the uptown area. Shows an appreciation of the strength of that storm, and how much science still can't grasp.
BTW I only know this because my brother lives there so I looked at the water lines left on the houses.

Pretty cool though
be back in a little bit.
Closing in now..Link
Classic hook echo:


Ft Laud PD view..Link
More GW crud Link
AT 202 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR INTERSECTION I-595 AND I-95...OR ABOUT NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

TRAINED SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED PENNY TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN
MARGATE AND FORT LAUDERDALE NEAR COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD AND 441
.
Dolphins stadium view..Link
TCWC Brisbane 12:00pm UTC 28Feb 2007

Currently [16.1S 154.0E] 25 kts 999 hPa

wind gusts up to 35 knots
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

12hrs [16.2S 153.2E] 35 kts 995 hPa
24hrs [16.8S 153.1E] 40 kts 990 hPa
36hrs [17.3S 153.1E] 50 kts 985 hPa
48hrs [18.1S 153,6E] 55 kts 980 hPa
OKay 2 storms tracking Link
Raw data ..2 more near Miami..Link
Severe Warnings Page..Link
Updated radar and storm tracks..Link
TORNADO WARNING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...MOVED OFSHORE!
The storms tracking on Wundergound..with tracksLink
Good soaker here..water still wind chopped in inlet too...Link
PRETTY AMAZING seeing that T-Storm dive like that.
Was a wild Hour..Suns coming out here again..Link
Was a classic severe right mover with rotation.Always bad stuff there.
The boat captain and crew probably, but I doubt Max Mayfield is in trouble.

Max Mayfield, the former head of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, found himself in the midst of a different kind of storm when he caught a 200-pound Goliath grouper while fishing with friends in the gulf of Mexico shortly after his Jan. 1 retirement. the St. Petersburg Times says Mayfield is under investigation by his former employer for possibly violating fishing laws. The boat captain and crew slid the grouper into the boat through a door in the back, unhooked it, snapped a few celebratory photos and slid it back into the water. It swam away. Such photographs are common fare in fishing magazines, but since Goliath is a protected species, bringing one into the boat is illegal, even if just for a few minutes. Doing so can damage a protective slime that covers the fish.

Link
I notice the captain and crew are the ones who brought it onboard,not Max.
he was on a charter boat..but it was a friends...and he was non paying.....they all could be in for some fines
Thanks for the additional info ric. Where did that come from?
I had heard community service.
the actual article...not sure what paper..googled the good dr and grouper........and then..i just went to florida florida fish and games..says right there.....illegal to harvest, possess, land, sell, buy the folowing..and then list all restricted fish..and mr goliath grouper is among them
i heard the biggest concern was the amount of square grouper they had on board
Ah yes, the square grouper, lol! I've seen a few of those. Never tried to bring one on the boat though. Risky business that. :^D
Dark clouds over my house but nothing severe...


there was hail in coral springs small size hail and heavy rain but no strong winds
6:06 radar for S floridaLink
There is a popular hang out in Jupiter called the Square Grouper. Tiki Bar on the Jupiter Inlet, Jimmy Buffet and Alan Jackson frequent the place. Patio Furniture tossed in the sand on the inlet, what more could ya want.
Live view Thunderstorm..Kansas Link
The pressure pattern is no longer flat! :) I wonder if this great plains storm will deepen to a lower pressure than the last storm did (lowest pressure 985.0 mb)
On another note, the cost of war counter had been reset to account for the cost of the surge, the live running total is here Link
WEathercam in Kansas with controls...Link
Its interesting to note the La nina events that occur during months like march and april usually dont reach there full intensity till november/december.
I am mixed. If there is a La Nina I will get another dry winter like this one (dryest to date). However the La Nina should keep So Cal valleys and Beaches cooler cause of the AM clouds. Already some are predicting the warmest summer ever.

With the weak to moderate El Nino this season that has brought just about nothing this season to So Cal the La Nina should bring at leaste slightly more rain fall then this current winter.

Most of the time I would not like to hear about the La Nina but since I have lost all faith in El Nino I say bring on the La Nina this season.
La Niña is essentially the opposite of El Niño. During La Niña, the trade winds—easterly winds that blow through the tropics and subtropics—are stronger than normal. Likewise, the cold water that normally exists along the coast of South America extends to the central equatorial Pacific. La Niña reappears every three to five years. At the beginning of 2006, scientists were still unsure whether this cold pool would evolve into a long-lasting, strong La Niña condition. If so, it could be expected to reorganize global weather patterns.

Credit HERE

As we observed in 06 it did not materialize into a full blown La Nina, but, fueled the most active hurricane season on record in 05 on it's way.

Hard to say what this year will bring, it will be here soon enough, too soon if you ask me!
Hurricane Rita Mpeg from Oil rigs derrick looking down at 30 ft seas and cat 4 Conditions..off SW Louisiana Link
Can't get here soon enough for me,Proggresive Pulse.
..Its been a long time ..since we Rock and Rolled...
Nobody has explained the El Nino phenomenon to me. I can assume that it is caused by water that stops circulating to the ocean floor and is replaced by cooler water(upwelling)? I find it interesting that this happens fairly frequently in the Pacific and scientists talk of something like this happening in the Atlantic, the result being the diversion of the jet stream and a deep freeze for Europe and northeastern North America. I know there is an added feature in the Atlantic with the melting of the ice caps and fresh water displacing salt water causing this upwelling to stop. I still think its just cyclical and if it did happen in the Atlantic it would only go for a few hears and dissapate.
As a gardener I do not like the prospect of La nina since it means dryer weather in the eastern US during the summer months.
Morning guys...

Were now up to the half way point of this offseason and before you know it all starts again.Use this time to prepare and consider were you would go if youre was asked to evacuate dont wait till june 1.Hopefully this season will be kind to the U.S. Adrian

1-Create a Free Hurricane Plan
2-Are you ready?

Patrap you might want to create a thumbnail for that image.thanks
Bigdaddyo...There are a lot of sites that give good explanations on El Nino and La Nina. But basically El Nino happens when the normal easterly trade winds in the equatorial pacific stop blowing as strong, and even reverse. Normal trade winds causes the water to move from E to W, and off the S. American coast. Water moving away from the coast pulls colder water from up from the depths. Since El Nino slows/stops the trade winds, the water stops flowing W and pulling up cold water. That, along with the fact that stronger winds cause more evaporation which cools water, causes the pacific to warm.

La Nina is the opposite, the trade winds blow stronger, which cools the water more the usual.
heres a loop..GOMLink
60 hr GOM temp Forecast loop..Link
whoa....we can't paste images here anymore?....come on.....let's get real...when the host asks them to stop...fine....soon..people will be saying...let's stay on topic..LMAO
Where's gulfscotsman when we need him?
bigdaddyo here are a few sights that have been good to me.

1-La nina and el nino resources
2-Madden-Julian Oscillation
3-CPC-MJO page
4-MJO-Research
That image of Katrina is 34 megabytes... sure killing a lot of dial-uppers...
Ahhh..always count on STL to state the obvious...great job
Ive got comcast highspeed and it still takes a while to load up.Imageshack is an option for those kind of images.
ImageShack will not accept images larger than 1.5 megabytes; I often have to optimize 40 frame radar loops in order to upload them because they otherwise are too big.
Today.....is...."Enjoy the Humor Day"...i'll help provide the humor..the clowns..preceed me



Wilma, Wilma Flintstone
Made us a modern stone-age family
From the town of Can-Cun
She's a witch right out of history

Let's join with the looters down the street
They know that the prices can't be beat

When it's Wilma
Wilma Flintstone
Have a yabba dabba doo time,
A hur-ra-cane time
We'll have a lights out time.
(To Close the Show)

Someday, maybe FEMA'll join the fight
And the generators'll be quiet for the night

When it Wilma Flintstone
Have a yabba dabba doo time,
A hur-ra-cane time
We'll have a lights out time.
Just in case 2007 turns out to be another once in a lifetime year as 2005..may i suggest some names so we don't need to use the greek alphabet......

Ivanna Getouttahere
Haywood Jablomahowzdowne
Hal Deep
Fimah Letuzdowne
Konoff d' Strockshun
Yagot Powryet
Noruf Onmaihowz
Duck N'Cuver
Kissur Asgoodby
Weir Gonners
Yea STL i just noticed that thanks by the way have you seen this imagehosting site it allows you to add a discription to the image i use it often.Postimage.org

Example...

LA looks like its going to go into the books with the second dryest rainy season on record...

Statement as of 5:30 am PST on March 1, 2007

… It is the second driest rain season to date in downtown Los
Angeles…

Downtown Los Angeles received 0.92 inches of rain during the month
of February. Although this was not nearly one of the driest
februaries since official records began… rainfall for the
month was well below the normal of 3.68 inches. February is…
on average… the wettest month of the year in Los Angeles…
and believe it or not… with just 0.92 inches of rain… it
was the wettest month of the rain year so far. In fact… it
was the wettest month since April 2006.

This season is currently the second driest rain season to date
in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877. Since the
beginning of the water year… which began July 1 2006… downtown
Los Angeles has received a paltry 2.42 inches of rain. That is
just 22 percent of what is normal through the end of February.
It is also 8.38 inches below the normal precipitation to date…
which is 10.80 inches.

March… with an average rainfall of 3.14 inches… can be a very
wet month in Los Angeles… as in 1884 when 12.36 inches of rain
fell. However… average rainfall drops off sharply in April to
0.83 inches… then to 0.31 inches in may… and just 0.06 inches
in June. Normal seasonal rainfall at downtown Los Angeles is
15.14 inches.

Seasons with the least rainfall from July 1st through February
28th (except 29th in leap years) are listed below.

During the driest season ever… the 2001-2002 season…
precipitation from July 1st 2001 to February 28th was 3.95
inches.
Outside...Link
You can also go here...for view.Link
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182. Inyo
yeah for all the good this El Nino did for california, bring on the La Nina instead. Last year was La Nina and at least we got some rain that year.
WU mail call for dr m
NOAA News On La Niña

LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE

By this image from Tuesday ENSO is crashing
Good morning all
Good afternoon kris!
how you doing H23?
I think the wild fires this year in So Cal will be the big story this summer. I beleave again people have there hopes way to high for this hurricane season. Yes there will be more then last year but nothing like 2005.

Inyo I agree 100%. This so called El Nino was a sick joke. I know 1/3 El Ninos are dry but never this dry.
1 Fatality (storm report page)
He/She was in a Mobile Home. They must not have seen it coming.
There is a mistake in the wind section about a person being trapped. It's in there under 2 locations.
Predicting hurricane strength closer

BY MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

A new scientific study reveals important clues about the fluctuating power of hurricane winds and offers the tantalizing possibility that forecasters soon might solve their most vexing problem:

How to better predict when storms will grow more powerful -- and how to anticipate the perilous ''rapid intensification'' of some hurricanes as they approach populated regions.

Example A: Hurricane Andrew, just before it crashed into South Miami-Dade County in 1992. Example B: Hurricane Charley, just before it flattened much of Southwest Florida in 2004.

''For everybody who has to make real decisions in which property and some lives are at stake, this is a huge advance,'' said Hugh Willoughby, a professor at Florida International University and former director of the federal government's Hurricane Research Division on Virginia Key.

Shuyi Chen, an associate professor of meteorology at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, said the breakthrough soon should produce better intensity forecasts.

''We're trying to get the state of the art to move forward,'' she said.

Chen is one of four co-authors of the peer-reviewed study, to be published Friday in the prestigious journal Science. The lead author is Robert Houze Jr., a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Washington.

Based largely on research conducted by the crews of three hurricane hunter aircraft, the study revealed the mechanics of a phenomenon called ''eye wall replacement'' and found links between it and the ebb and flow of wind intensity.

The eye wall is the thick ring of clouds that surrounds a hurricane's eye and generates the most powerful -- and destructive -- winds.

Eye wall replacement occurs when those clouds disintegrate, temporarily weakening a storm, only to be replaced by another eye wall that eventually becomes as strong or even stronger than the first.

And that is what keeps forecasters awake at night -- the difficulty in predicting those changes and the possibility that a storm will unexpectedly mushroom in power just before it hits land.

Desperatedly seeking to improve those forecasts, scientists have been trying to develop extremely sensitive computerized models that can respond to relatively small changes in the atmosphere in and around hurricanes.

''You needed to have computer models that can tell you not only what's happening now, but what will be happening several days from now,'' Chen said.

So, during simultaneous flights by three hurricane hunter planes that darted in and out of Katrina, Rita and Ophelia in 2005, researchers mapped small-scale changes in outlying rain bands and in a region of dry air just outside the eye wall called a ``moat.''

Then they were able to link those changes to the eye wall replacement cycle and to changes in wind intensity.

The scientists already have developed a forecast model based on their research, and they devised a new way to direct aircraft as crews examine these atmospheric features.

Now, the researchers are hoping to add their tool to the workbench of forecasters. The National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's fiscal 2008 budget proposal includes an extra $2 million for hurricane intensity research.

''The adoption of real-time targeting of aircraft onto small-scale storm features likely to be associated with storm-intensity change could provide timely input that would improve operational forecasts of hurricane intensity,'' the report concluded.

This is important because advances in intensity forecasts have lagged far behind improvements in track forecasts.

Some examples:

• Twenty-four hours before Andrew smashed into South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane, it was predicted to reach the area as a Category 3.

• A day before Charley hit Captiva Island as a near-Category 5 hurricane, it was predicted to strike the region as a Category 3.

• Worst of all, Hurricane Mitch suddenly exploded from a Category 3 storm to a Category 5 in October 1998, killing thousands in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala.

''We know that eye wall replacement affects intensity, but we needed to know what affects the timing of that,'' said Willoughby, who served as an official reviewer of the the report and wrote a commentary that also appears in Friday's edition of Science.

''If you get landfall while the storm is in the weakening stage, that's good,'' he said. ``If you get it in the intensifying stage, you get Andrew.''
Thanks for the info on El Nino! I read about the severe outbreak expected in the lower Ohio River valley, so far the storms that had reached severe limits this morning in Missouri have weakened. So we here in KY may be spared.
Good day .. Does anyone know the Prominence of El nino la nina on the african sandstorm that made its way to florida last year, and was it the greatest factor in killing last years atlantic season
I think it definetly had something to with it ( dust vs hurricane activity )
Hummmm the map on the welcome page looks like a Christmas Tree. Little stormy up in the mid-section.
hurricant...the El Nino/La Nina does not directly affect those dust clouds.The dust clouds have a major hampering impact on hurricanes.
For the 2005 hurricane season, which broke records in the Atlantic, however, dust activity was moderate, indicating yet another level of potential complexity to the dust-hurricane interactions, which the researchers are continuing to investigate, Evan says. During that year’s hurricane season, the researchers noted an increase in dust from the African coast, and a dearth of hurricanes forming in the middle of the Atlantic. Instead, they “kind of got pushed closer to the United States,” he says. Therefore, an indirect effect may also occur, in which the dust may dampen storm formation in the middle Atlantic, but not prevent them from forming farther west.

Dust is an inhibiting factor, not a savior.
So could it be said that( El nino La Nina Vs Sandstorms) that they are related yet opposing forces in the atlantic storm cycles.. Remember that i am no scientist, however, I live in Miami, was affected by wilma( lost the old roof)and i was presented information suggesting MT MUrapi eruption last year caused the sandstorm. Yet i Have read that West african drought is tied to El nIno cycles. Can anyone clarify
During that year’s hurricane season, the researchers noted an increase in dust from the African coast, and a dearth of hurricanes forming in the middle of the Atlantic. Instead, they “kind of got pushed closer to the United States,”

This is something that I have mentioned before - that one of the reasons why so many storms developed near land was due to unfavorable conditions (dust) in the east Atlantic; 2005 likely wouldn't have been as bad if it had had normal or below normal levels of dust; for example, Katrina might have formed further east and followed a path similar to say, Helene (Wilma was different, as developement normally shifts to the western Caribbean late in the season).
Agreed Michael.. Katrina as some others traveled over here as naked swirls, finally shaking out their dust pretty close to the USA. If they would have formed sooner, better chances they'd of turned N & out to sea.

At the time I thought 2005 was considered a record dust year.
Hi all. So is there a forecast for Sahara Weather this season, and what the SAL will be like in June, july ect ??
>


......because last season, ALL conditions were generally favourable with the trop. waves coming off the Continent, and the SAL was the primary destroyer.









,,er, sorry for that weird post.
I'm not sure how often this happens, but...the Gov of Iowa has declared the entire state a disaster area. :-)

Here's an image looking out my door, south of the Twin Cities, where I shoveled just two hours ago (the round table that used to have the "snow cake" blew away):

Time to shovel...again
Hurricant, I dont think it is true to say that W. African weather conditions affect Nino/Nina. I think it is pretty well agreed that the opposite is true.i.e. , that Nino/Nina affect W.African weather. However, W African weather affects Atlantic weather, so the cycle goes on.
Yikes, Margie, Stay inside !
At least 8 dead in Enterprise, AL from super tornado, just a few miles south of here.
Much storm damage in SE AL. At least 9 dead, some missing. Full morgue set up in Enterprise.
thanks pottery remember it is a question and an attempt to form a question i just thought sand sandstorm data that i looked at was inconclusive so i asked .