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El Niño chances rising for hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on May 29, 2009

Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific have been rising steadily for several months, and there is now a very real possibility that an El Niño event could occur during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, August - October. This is important, since the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes is usually reduced during an El Niño year, thanks to the increased wind shear such events bring to the tropical Atlantic. Last month, Columbia University's International Research Institute (IRI) was giving a 30% chance of an El Niño event for the coming hurricane season; this month, they have bumped their odds up to 45%. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology notes that "recent trends are consistent with the very early stages of a developing El Niño". NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts the current neutral conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific will continue into the summer, but shows that their CFS El Niño model is predicting a moderate El Niño event for the coming hurricane season.


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region"). The +0.5°C mark is the threshold for El Niño conditions, and we are very close to that mark now. Image credit: NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

El Niño forecast models
The latest suite of runs by the various computer models used to forecast El Niño offer two main forecasts for the coming hurricane season: neutral conditions will persist, or an El Niño will develop (Figure 2). There are two types of models used to make these forecasts: statistical models and dynamical models. The statistical models have been around the longest, and they rely on statistics of how past El Niño episodes have developed in order to make a forecast. Dynamical models don't care about what has happened in the past. They make a forecast by taking the current state of the atmosphere, putting the data on a grid covering the entire globe, then solving the equations that govern the physics of the atmosphere and ocean on each point of this grid every few minutes, marching forward in time for many months. These dynamical models, in many cases, are simply modified versions of the same models we use to forecast the short-term weather. For example, the NOAA's Coupled Forecast System (CFS) model is based on the GFS model that we use to track hurricanes and make short-term weather forecasts. The main difference is that the CFS model runs for many months instead of just a few days.


Figure 2. El Niño model forecasts made in mid-May. Note that for the peak part of hurricane season, August-September-October (ASO), most of the dynamical models are forecasting an El Niño event (SST anomaly greater than 0.5°C in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific). Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

Which model to believe?
As is the case with all seasonal forecasts, El Niño forecasts are not very good, and don't do much better than flipping a coin. However, thanks to intensive research efforts and the doubling of computer power that has been occurring every 1.5 years, the El Niño forecasts by the dynamical models have improved considerably over the past few years. These models now do about as well as the traditional statistical models, and should continue to improve as computer power continues to increase and our understanding of El Niño increases. Over the past two months, the dynamical models have increasingly been forecasting the development of an El Niño this Fall. To illustrate, in March only three of the thirteen dynamical models were predicting an El Niño event for hurricane season. By mid-May, this had increased to nine out of thirteen models. However, none of the eight statistical El Niño models are forecasting an El Niño event for the Fall, and their forecasts should be respected, as well. The IRI web site has a nice tool one can use to study the performance of the individual models. To my eye, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) dynamical model has made the best El Niño forecasts over the past two years (though I haven't done a rigorous error analysis to verify this). The JMA model is predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming hurricane season, and I am going to go along with that forecast.

What will an El Niño event do to hurricane numbers?
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, there have been four El Niño events (Figure 3). During these years, the number of named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. This is close to the average levels we've seen over the past 60 years--10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. If, on the other hand, we look at the five years that had neutral conditions, the numbers are considerably higher--18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes. So, let's hope for an El Niño this year. Note, though, that one of our worst hurricane years--2004, which featured hurricanes Ivan, Charlie, Frances and Jeanne, which all affected Florida with hurricane conditions--was an El Niño year. It seems that in years like 2004, there is a lag between the time a El Niño event develops and the response of the atmosphere over the Atlantic. There is no way of forecasting at this point whether this could be the case this year. One argument against a repeat of 2004 is the presence of much lower heat content and SSTs in the tropical Atlantic this year compared to 2004.


Figure 3. Looking at the numbers of Atlantic names storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes since 1995.

Tropical Depression One
The season's first tropical depression formed yesterday off the coast of North Carolina, but has missed its opportunity to become the Tropical Storm Ana. Tropical Depression One is headed east-northeastward out to sea, and is now entering a region with cooler water temperatures and increased wind shear of 15 - 20 knots. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with TD One has shrunk this morning, and high wind shear has pushed these thunderstorms to the east side of the center, exposing the surface circulation to view. Tropical Depression One will not hold together much longer, and should be history by Saturday night.

Is the formation of TD One a harbinger of an active hurricane season?
Probably not. Early season storms occurring near the U.S. coast have not been shown to be correlated with an active main portion of hurricane season during August - October. However, the situation is different if we start getting June and July storms in the deep tropics between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. This was the case last year, when the formation of Hurricane Bertha in the deep tropics in July presaged an active 2008 hurricane season. According to the Hurricane FAQ, "as shown in (Goldenberg 2000), if one looks only at the June-July Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes occurring south of 22°N and east of 77°W (the eastern portion of the Main Development Region [MDR] for Atlantic hurricanes), there is a strong association with activity for the remainder of the year. According to the data from 1944-1999, total overall Atlantic activity for years that had a tropical storm or hurricane form in this region during June and July have been at least average and often times above average. So it could be said that a June/July storm in this region is pretty much a "sufficient" condition for a year to produce at least average activity."

I'll have a detailed outlook of the coming hurricane season on Monday, the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. IKE
From where I sit....now...16 hours, 5 minutes until it starts.......
502. IKE
Strong late May sun didn't take long to get the GOM water temps back up....

503. IKE
Good morning IKE

That is not good with that much heating that fast we may have some pretty strong storms in the Gulf this year
The Atlantic made a further jump yesterday 30 May and this further defines how quickly SSTs can change. SSTs are now comparable to 2008 and warmer in the Western-Central Caribbean this year but does not extend as far north over the SW Atlantic

2008



2009

506. IKE
They have a story in the NW FL. Daily News this morning talking with old-timers that have lived through hurricanes in Destin,FL..Link

There was discussion of a 1926 hurricane that paralleled the coast. Sure enough, I found it....Link

I hope everyone is ready for the Season....Some of the worst Canes to hit the ConUS has been during slow Seasons....ie..Andrew!
Here is a link to give people a better understanding about Battery Powered Digital TV's. I had a few WUmails yesterday asking me about them.

With all the hoopla about the digital TV switch-over in February, are there any portable TVs on the market with digital tuning capability?
It is wonderful that everyone is talking about preparing for the season. Just a suggestion for those with young children, prepare and kit to bring along with you on evacuations. Coloring books, games and dvd's that the kids have never seen. Living in southeast texas, my daughter has endured 3 evacuations in the last 4 years. Spending 12 to 16 hours in the car is hard on us adults, but even harder on the children. Also here is an article regarding the ways to approach hurricane season with your child. Good luck to all.
http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/local/adults__hurricane_fears_magnified_in_children_05-30-20 09.html
Good Sunday morning, all, on this cane season eve!

Be aware. Be Prepared. May they all be FISH!
Quoting IKE:
They have a story in the NW FL. Daily News this morning talking with old-timers that have lived through hurricanes in Destin,FL..Link

There was discussion of a 1926 hurricane that paralleled the coast. Sure enough, I found it....Link



A man in Pensacola had his home destroyed in that storm. So he built a new one in the Cordova Park area and lived there until the 50's.

Eventually, my grandparents bought this home. In September 2004, Hurricane Ivan pushed a tree over onto the house and damaged it.

When repairmen arrived to fix the roof, they found that the house had been built with double studs and double rafters.

I think the man who built the home originally had made up his mind that he was never going to lose another one to hurricane.
I just read Weather456 blog... it should almost be mandatory reading today :)

Tropical Update; NOAA's Prediction; SAL
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Well 'cane season begins tomorrow

Tropical Update; NOAA's Prediction; SAL


Thanks for that update: I now better understand one the more confusing elements of the hurricane season.

And I like how you stress the fact that uncertainity of El Nino may lower the base number of your hurricane season forecasts.

By any chance what program do you use to draw weather fronts and do your analysis? Do you have any hurricane analysis programs like for surface observations, winds or storm surge?
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:


Thanks for that update: I now better understand one the more confusing elements of the hurricane season.

And I like how you stress the fact that uncertainity of El Nino may lower the base number of your hurricane season forecasts.

By any chance what program do you use to draw weather fronts and do your analysis? Do you have any hurricane analysis programs like for surface observations, winds or storm surge?


For surface obs, I use digital atmosphere, I have no hurricane software right now as I cannot find any suitable one, except hurritrak and that is for later down the road. I have access to storm surge modelling but not privately.
OK, I just updated my blog also.. there is next to NADA out there on the Atlantic side. If it were not for RTLSNK and Vortex having permanent rain clouds over them, I would not have been able to find two AOI.


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Well 'cane season begins tomorrow

Tropical Update; NOAA's Prediction; SAL


Great blog, 456! College-level instruction 1st thing on a Sunday mornin' is best for me. I'm so relaxed...it takes. :)
Have a good day everyone....I will be updating my Forecast thoughts tonite..BBL.....everyone enjoy some Troll JUICE today and don't be afraid to give us all your best Troll JUICE!

Troll Juice Link
I just hope we don't see another Katrina or Ike this year, god those were destructive storms. To have 2 of the 3 most destructive Hurricanes ever to hit the USA in 3 years of eachother.


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518 -- remember that there are 300 million people in the US, up 100 million since about 1970. A lot more people live on the coast or near it. Also, there is inflation, too. That 1926 Great Miami Hurricane would be a dilly today.
521. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


A man in Pensacola had his home destroyed in that storm. So he built a new one in the Cordova Park area and lived there until the 50's.

Eventually, my grandparents bought this home. In September 2004, Hurricane Ivan pushed a tree over onto the house and damaged it.

When repairmen arrived to fix the roof, they found that the house had been built with double studs and double rafters.

I think the man who built the home originally had made up his mind that he was never going to lose another one to hurricane.


Interesting.
Quoting Weather456:
The Atlantic made a further jump yesterday 30 May and this further defines how quickly SSTs can change. SSTs are now comparable to 2008 and warmer in the Western-Central Caribbean this year but does not extend as far north over the SW Atlantic

2008



2009

Good morning, all.

456, the only reasons IMO we are not as warm over the Bahamas and the region to the east of it is 1) the persistent strong easterlies we had during the early part of May due to the location of high pressure and 2) the recent rainy weather which has kept sun exposure in the area relatively low.

Once the MJO pulse moves out of the area and the weather stablizes, I think we will see even more rapid heating up.

BTW, anyone notice how warm the water is near the Pacific coast of Central America? If the MJO is moving into this area, I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of activity in that area over the next 3 weeks or so.
Well, thunder is building up to our west, with full overcast skies. I guess the sunny part of the day is over. . . . lol
525. OGal
This is just an OBTW. When planning for your first seventy two hours after a cane hits if you have not had to evacuate be sure to have medical supplies, food and water for your pets.

Ya, and get that generator out now and make sure it is running smoothly.
Hi Baha

Same here - little sun, now the clouds are building.

Are you still on dial up?
Mornin' all. Sunny and 86 degrees down on Bayou Grande this a.m.
Quoting IKE:
They have a story in the NW FL. Daily News this morning talking with old-timers that have lived through hurricanes in Destin,FL..Link

There was discussion of a 1926 hurricane that paralleled the coast. Sure enough, I found it....Link



ahh, the Great Miami hurricane. It tore Miami UP, and precipitated the land boom collapse as well as killing hundreds along okeechobee lake when the dike failed.. the precursor to '28
Thanks Orca for the info on the digital portable TV's. We generally keep the radio, as the tv stations simulcast on radio.

After Katrina, Rita, Wilma etc we were able to get our satellite up the next day, and had generator power to run on. Our house was a favorite for the teens that week - we let them hook up the xbox to play.
Send some of that wet weather down here in the Windward islands, Baha. It's been very dry, hot and smokey for weeks now.
Quoting stormdude77:
Send some of that wet weather down here in the Windward islands, Baha. It's been very dry, hot and smokey for weeks now.


It seems you guys best chance of rain is next weekend.
GM all, workin' & Lurkin', catching up 1 page at a time,.

508. Orcasystems
Article didn't load here, but many laptops have dig TV reception & there are cards & dongles to convert them. One can make up a battery pack to extend the life, like (3) 6v emergency light batteries to make an 18v battery pack.

521. quoting Ike quoting OZ

When repairmen arrived to fix the roof, they found that the house had been built with double studs and double rafters.

I think the man who built the home originally had made up his mind that he was never going to lose another one to hurricane.


Have seen much sturdier than that shredded by just 'cane winds - don't bet a life on it.

Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha

Same here - little sun, now the clouds are building.

Are you still on dial up?
Hey, zoo. Yep, still on dialup. (note my comments are staying pretty brief and no graphics lol). I probably will be until at least Tuesday, if not longer. Tomorrow's a public holiday here, and everybody's off work.

I'm trying to figure out how to post my lightning pictures from Friday night in a reasonable amount of time. ;o)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates
OK, we are in desperate need of a blob.. any blob..anywhere...
It is a beautiful day here in the NE Caribbean, not a cloud in the sky in Saint Kitts

Antigua



charlotte amalie harbor, USVI



Guadeloupe

Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, we are in desperate need of a blob.. any blob..anywhere...

...and it starts in just hrs!!!!,lol....sheer is to darn high right now for any development just about anywhere in the carib/GOM/Atlantic,when the sheer starts droping over the western carib,the action should start,around mid-june,IMO...
538. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:


ahh, the Great Miami hurricane. It tore Miami UP, and precipitated the land boom collapse as well as killing hundreds along okeechobee lake when the dike failed.. the precursor to '28


That was a bad storm.

It is hot outside....I've got sunny and 87 degrees and I'm soaked from cleaning my car.
People looking for a blob can zoom on NW central Bahamas where u may find something. It's currently raining outside, but gently. Dunno how much of a cloud this one is from the other side . . .
What is the shear like in the GOM, anyone expecting anything from the stalled front?
Quoting Gulfsyed:
What is the shear like in the GOM, anyone expecting anything from the stalled front?


Very Hostile

Morning all. Looks beautiful where u are Weather456!

Everybody ready for the season?
535. Orcasystems
OK, we are in desperate need of a blob.. any blob..anywhere...

...um Orca, see what you've done now:



Right over Baha...
...better get out your polish Orca

CRS
90E pooped out- Link
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
535. Orcasystems
OK, we are in desperate need of a blob.. any blob..anywhere...

...um Orca, see what you've done now:



Right over Baha...
...better get out your polish Orca

CRS


Now why didn't my snow generator work that good.. I tried all winter to get snow in Florida?
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
535. Orcasystems
OK, we are in desperate need of a blob.. any blob..anywhere...

...um Orca, see what you've done now:



Right over Baha...
...better get out your polish Orca

CRS


A Blob :)



Hmm and the shear will be decreasing in the next 24 hours....

An El Nino quiet cane season is fine by me
New Solar Cycle Prediction

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots..........
May to go out under a freeze watch

The National Weather Service has issued a freeze watch for many parts of New York from Sunday through Monday morning, including Oneida County....
look at the cold fronts they are still comeing down the pipeline and its all most june has well i think this year will be more like 2006 and there more S too then i think they where last year at this time


any storms that where to pop past 50W will most likey be pick up by the cold fronts and be sent out too sea


The Baha blob is growing but moving NE
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS spinning up another western Caribbean storm on the end of it's run.

Anyone believe it?


That far out is difficult to believe. I would lean towards the anything it might want to develop nearing the end of June.
Road To You by Ryan Farish, my favorite smooth Jazz artists. His music is featured on TWC.

is this rare too see this many cold fronts this time of year ???
Quoting CaneWarning:


No.


Watch out, SF. LOL.
Quoting Weather456:


That far out is difficult to believe. I would lean towards the anything it might want to develop nearing the end of June.


But 456, by then it would be around mid-June; therefore, why wouldn't that be belivable from your eyes my friend?
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS spinning up another western Caribbean storm on the end of it's run.

Anyone believe it?


Even though we are getting into Hurricane season; I am not buying it. The GFS always likes to do that.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


But 456, by then it would be around mid-June; therefore, why wouldn't that be belivable from your eyes my friend?


Simple, the forecast skill of any model decreases as time goes on. That is why it's wise to stay within a more reliable time frame of 168 hrs, not only because its closer but also that is when you begin to assess other models for agreement. However, one can lean more to the GFS if it forecasts tropical cyclogenesis beyond 168 hrs if for exmaple the MJO is expected to be in an upward pulse. Here again we still cannot give a 100% confidence that far out.
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS spinning up another western Caribbean storm on the end of it's run.

Anyone believe it?


Even though we are getting into Hurricane season; I am not
buying it. The GFS always likes to do that.


If I bought into every system the GFS spits out, especially that far out, I would board up my house now, head for the hills and return in December.
Quoting Weather456:


Simple, the forecast skill of any model decreases as time goes on. That is why it's wise to stay within a more reliable time frame of 168 hrs, not only because its closer but also that is when you begin to assess other models for agreement. However, one can lean more to the GFS if it forecasts tropical cyclogenesis beyond 168 hrs if for exmaple the MJO is expected to be in an upward pulse. Here again we still cannot give a 100% confidence that far out.


Gotcha, so let's see whether consistency sets in with it during the upcoming several days to come, right Weather?
Road To You by Ryan Farish, my favorite smooth Jazz artists. His music is featured on TWC.

I'm not into Jazz but I have to admit, the song was nice to listen to.
Hiya Drak.
Quoting IKE:
12Z GFS spinning up another western Caribbean storm on the end of it's run.

Anyone believe it?


Im not jumping on that bus again- Link

oops.
only 618 minute's left!!!,lol
Quoting Weather456:


For surface obs, I use digital atmosphere, I have no hurricane software right now as I cannot find any suitable one, except hurritrak and that is for later down the road. I have access to storm surge modelling but not privately.


I heard about Digital Atmopshere but I cannot wait to see some of your anlaysis on storm surge modelling, I've got an idea what it is.

Also, I'm awaiting reponse from Dr. Masters concerning making your blog a featured one.
anyone see TWC's segment on high altitude clouds almost in space,they first appeared during the industrial revolution!!
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Gotcha, so let's see whether consistency sets in with it during the upcoming several days to come, right Weather?


Let's see if it keeps a consistent time frame over the upcoming weeks. Don't get your hopes up though.
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone see TWC's segment on high altitude clouds almost in space,they first appeared during the industrial revolution!!


wow, I thought noctilucent clouds were the highest
Quoting Weather456:


wow, I thought noctilucent clouds were the highest
Quoting Weather456:


Let's see if it keeps a consistent time frame over the upcoming weeks. Don't get your hopes up though.


I won't. LOL.
Hiya JFV
if people would read 456's blog, it would eliminate a lot of the repetitive questions that come up here...it's very well done and gives a nice foundation...sort of a "Tropical Weather for Dummies"...it's a great resource...
Quoting Drakoen:
Hiya JFV


How's PBC this afternoon, Drakster?
I read Masters, vort, and 456 daily...and if Drak does the SE blog agian, I'll add that to my stash....
AOI in s gom boc possible low pressure to form there appears a twist to the atomsphere down there
Drakster rings a bell from last year.


Anyway, SAL is still pretty strong in the EATL.

Bum Bum.....Bum Bum... BUM BUM!Looks like something is brewing in the Bahamas.
Quoting presslord:
if people would read 456's blog, it would eliminate a lot of the repetitive questions that come up here...it's very well done and gives a nice foundation...sort of a "Tropical Weather for Dummies"...it's a great resource...


lol, I'm a big fan of the blog. He, along with StormW have done spectacular work on predicting tropical waves, 90L and TD 1.
456:those are the clouds they were talking about they are the only clouds that occur outside of the stratosphere!!Link
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Bum Bum.....Bum Bum... BUM BUM!Looks like something is brewing in the Bahamas.


Nothing 'brewing' near the Bahamas. Its just some showers and thunderstorms.

...oh...I forgot to mention...the Portlight Blog is also excellent...
Quoting stillwaiting:
456:those are the clouds they were talking about they are the only clouds that occur outside of the stratosphere!!


ohhh, I actually thought they were confined to the mesosphere. Did they indicated which layer of the atmosphere they extended to?
isn't the mesosphere above the statosphere???,they are found in the mesosphere, in the earths upper atmosphere!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
isn't the mesosphere above the statosphere???,they are found in the mesosphere, in the earths upper atmosphere!!!


yea, the mesosphere is above the stratopshere but I was wondering if the TWC mentioned if they extended higher than the mesosphere.
456:no they just said that the clouds are close to space,its a very interesting subject,IMO..I figured you;d know something about it....I'm going to order the encyclopedia of climate and weather,the one published by oxford university,is that a good read??,I've been reading the encyclopedia of hurricane's,typhoons and cyclones and it great,but I'd like something on paper a little more in depth...the NWS has a great weather tutorial online howeverLink
WEATHER 456-Do you have a prediction for this hurricane season as to the number of storms that will form?
Quoting hydrus:
WEATHER 456-Do you have a prediction for this hurricane season as to the number of storms that will form?


Check his blog. Its all very detailed and simple to understand.

Quoting stillwaiting:
456:no they just said that the clouds are close to space,its a very interesting subject,IMO..I figured you;d know something about it....I'm going to order the encyclopedia of climate and weather,the one published by oxford university,is that a good read??,I've been reading the encyclopedia of hurricane's,typhoons and cyclones and it great,but I'd like something on paper a little more in depth...the NWS has a great weather tutorial online howeverLink


Well the encyclopedia of hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons is really an encyclopedia of individual storms and their effects. It does not really discuss "university style" details of the tropics. The Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate (Science Encyclopedia) is a great book for meteorology in general and gives you a general understanding of the atmosphere. It includes but does not single out tropical weather. A Forecasters Guide to Tropical Meteorology is like the encyclopedia of Weather and Climate but for only tropical weather. It does not include noctilucent clouds or polar stratopsheric clouds, another interesting cloud type but not tropical.

The best advise is to arm yourself with an array of met books, starting with those two. An advantage is, if one books mentions a particular hurricane, you can easily jump to the encyclopedia of Hurricanes and look it up.

Must Have Meteorology Books

And if the books aren't enough, you can also do extensive research online.

The waters of the Eastern GOM are really heating up.. watch for the North GOM waters to increase rapidly as well.. We have had high pressure here and the waters are starting to show... no clouds at blazing temps
Quoting hydrus:
WEATHER 456-Do you have a prediction for this hurricane season as to the number of storms that will form?


LINK
Quoting WeatherStudent:


How's PBC this afternoon, Drakster?


It is good sir buddy ol' pal sir
May 30,2008
456:you da man!!,thanks abunch I have the tropical one on my pick-up list as well,and the encyclopedia of hurricane's is more of a cross reference for TC's and their impacts than actually explaining tropical wx!!!the hurricane almanac is on my list as well...
Quoting stillwaiting:
456:you da man!!,thanks abunch I have the tropical one on my pick-up list as well,and the encyclopedia of hurricane's is more of a cross reference for TC's and their impacts than actually explaining tropical wx!!!the hurricane almanac is on my list as well...


Yep

You have mail
Quoting IKE:
12Z ECMWF adds some company to a Carribean chance.



Hmmm, indeed it does, only time will tell, won't it, Ikster? :)
ok ok... no offense man but but plz leave off the sters on the ends of names if u don't mind.
Quoting stillwaiting:
only 618 minute's left!!!,lol


For what?

June 1 is the climatological start of the ATL season but it really does not mean anything infact based on whats going on in the pacific an active season is not looking very likely.NCEP models show a rather impressive nino come the meat of the season.

Just thought i'd point that out.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
ok ok... no offense man but but plz leave off the sters on the ends of names if u don't mind.


Its getting borderline childish and creepy.
what SRTster said xD
Quoting hurricane23:


For what?

June 1 is the climatological start of the ATL season but it really does not mean anything infact based on whats going on in the pacific an active season is not looking very likely.NCEP models show a rather impressive nino come the meat of the season.

Just thought i'd point that out.


Damn Adrian, I'm head over heels in reference to that level of astounding tropical meteorological down-casting this afternoon. I would call it ''clasically spotless''.
The GFS shows the makings of a quiet June.

384 hours out.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
thanks adrain...lol..???
Interesting stuff you all talk about :)



Noctilucent_cloud
you of all people adrain should know:its not how active of a season it is...it only takes 1 storm to have a bad season???right????
Its been a pretty quiet Pacific season so far.

Quoting hurricane23:


For what?

June 1 is the climatological start of the ATL season but it really does not mean anything infact based on whats going on in the pacific an active season is not looking very likely.NCEP models show a rather impressive nino come the meat of the season.

Just thought i'd point that out.
23 storms there will be nino effects comes by mid sept caps the season from late sept on dont assume a false since of sercurity friend
Around the time the GFS wants to develop that storm in the WATL, the MJO will be in an upward motion across that area.

Hmmm....
Quoting hurricane23:


For what?

June 1 is the climatological start of the ATL season but it really does not mean anything infact based on whats going on in the pacific an active season is not looking very likely.NCEP models show a rather impressive nino come the meat of the season.

Just thought i'd point that out.


Correct, this is like the 100th or 101th time you pointed it out. Hope you are here to eat your crow when El Nino does not develop because I will be here to eat mines if it does.
615. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:
thanks adrain...lol..???


Okay...let's shut the blog down....see ya....
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Damn Adrian, I'm head over heels in reference to that level of astounding tropical meteorological down-casting this afternoon. I would call it ''clasically spotless''.
you need some serious helkp
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
23 storms there will be nino effects comes by mid sept caps the season from late sept on dont assume a false since of sercurity friend


I concur, one would think that since he has a B.A. Degree in TM he would know better than that. Well, I guess that just goes to show you otherwise right there, doesn't it? LOL. That's OK, I still love your weather skills, bro. Lova ya, Adrian.
If this pans out, we should see an upward MJO pulse around the last week of June.

The GFS shows a stronger pulse arriving about a week earlier.
It seems like the best time for cyclogenesis is nearing the end of June in the WCarib. This is based on 200 mb winds, SSTs, MJO and MSLP for that period.
I wouldn't mind a six storm season :P. We shall see.
see you after work tonight!!!,9-10pm..
lol El Nino makes it even more interesting, We'll see how the season pans out.
I'm off to consume my daily brunch intake ,y'all. Be back soon.
Quoting Vortex95:
I wouldn't mind a six storm season :P. We shall see.


Of course it all depends on where those 6 storms go. We've heard that about 10,000 times. Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you need some serious helkp


KOTGster that was uncalled for you sould specify what type of serious help for our friend lightly serious help, moderate serious help, serious serious help, and Severe Serious help :P.
Quoting Vortex95:
I wouldn't mind a six storm season :P. We shall see.


What is the fewest # we have seen in recent reliable history for a season ?
Quoting Ossqss:


What is the fewest # we have seen in recent reliable history for a season ?


4 in 1983
cya later stillwaiting---

There is a difference in Down-casting and real-casting WS
629. IKE
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


Of course it all depends on where those 6 storms go. We've heard that about 10,000 times. Link


I'll agree. I've read that at least 100 times on here this month. Who cares if there are 7 storms or 20? It's where they land...IF they do and at what strength.
sorry 1 in 1914
Quoting Vortex95:


KOTGster that was uncalled for you sould specify what type of serious help for our friend lightly serious help, moderate serious help, serious serious help, and Severe Serious help :P.



That's OK, he'll get banned soon enough I would presume.
Quoting Weather456:


4



Thanks, what year was that ?

Sorry, I am being lazy today after yard work nearly heat stroked me out :)

I am too slow on my posting
Wait now iam just trying to understand why some count the minutes and seconds for june1 thats all.The fact that we have had 1 depression and another low pressure system almost being named means zilch for upcoming season.I was just pointing out the welcome fact that a moderate/strong nino is a real possibility come the heart of the season.Look forward to a rather wet summer thanks to el nino.

I'm off, all. God bless.

What I find incredible is that for all my life down here i've never had to go to a shelter. In Andrew relatives south of us came up to North Dade at the last minute when it started to become clear that Andrew was heading for a middle dade hit ( it eventually dipped further south than that. ) Now a days we would have gone to a shelter after seeing that damage from that storm.

Well on the bright side a moderate to strong El Nino will make for a very interesting Winter across the Eastern United States.
Quoting Ossqss:



Thanks, what year was that ?

Sorry, I am being lazy today after yard work nearly heat stroked me out :)

I am too slow on my posting


1983.

But i corrected myself.....1 in 1914 but that could be attributed to the lack of modern observational and detection tools.
Quoting Weather456:


1983.

But i corrected myself.....1 in 1914 but that could be attributed to the lack of modern observational and detection tools.


Thanks, I have always questioned pre-Satellite numbers.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Well on the bright side a moderate to strong El Nino will make for a very interesting Winter across the Eastern United States.


And a very wet summer for us in southeast florida.
Quoting hurricane23:


And a very wet summer for us in southeast florida.


Yeah im looking forward to the wet summer this year. Hopefully things dont get too wet here...extremes are never good.
hurricane23,

If I was in your position, I would take the season off. Let the rest of us track the 6 storms that will form. See you in 2010, probaly downcast that year too. See you in 2011, oh I forgot, another slow year. Well you cannot downplay 2012!. Nostradamus. LOL
Quoting hurricaneseason2006:
hurricane23,

If I was in your position, I would take the season off. Let the rest of us track the 6 storms that will form. See you in 2010, probaly downcast that year too. See you in 2011, oh I forgot, another slow year. Well you cannot downplay 2012!. Nostradamus. LOL


Easy there....we got your point before. You can stop beating the dead horse now.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Easy there....we got your point before. You can stop beating the dead horse now.


What you are looking at is a migratory troll-stalker. Moves from blogger to blogger.
Hurricane Easy (1950)

imagine tracking a storm name Hurricane Easy. How ironic.
Quoting Weather456:
Hurricane Easy (1950)

imagine tracking a storm name Hurricane Easy. How ironic.


Pretty active season for florida (king) came through here during that season.

Damage from king

""
Quoting hurricane23:


For what?

June 1 is the climatological start of the ATL season but it really does not mean anything infact based on whats going on in the pacific an active season is not looking very likely.NCEP models show a rather impressive nino come the meat of the season.

Just thought i'd point that out.


Although it may not be an active one. All you have to do is look at 1992..
CyberTeddy or '57


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XtremeHurricanes.com now links to Portlight.org!

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Quoting DestinJeff:
you know how so many here are quick to offer sympathy, etc for those effected by hurricanes and are always quick to say how glad an el nino (or 'nino' as I see it has taken on now) will limit storms? those ninos may lower storm totals, but they also lead to other weather anomolies in other parts of the country/world.

we may get fewer storms, but places like CA and elsewhere may pay the price in hellacious weather as a result.



doesn't nino bring wet season to Calli? Meaning mudslides and many people loosing there homes to a avalanche of mud
XtremeHurricanes.com is in good company with that addition.

The website looks good Oz.

Thats a fact
Quoting Drakoen:


What you are looking at is a migratory troll-stalker. Moves from blogger to blogger.


Interesting specimen we have here...
Quoting Drakoen:


What you are looking at is a migratory troll-stalker. Moves from blogger to blogger.


Wow, there is a lawyer for everything now days. LoL

stalkingattorney
Hurricane Season 2008's strongest storm: Hurricane Ike Minimum Central Pressure 935mb
Peak Strength
Quoting DestinJeff:


yes, although not nearly the same amount of outpouring of "thoughts and prayers" as that for residents of other contries that experience mudslides, floods, etc...
Quoting DestinJeff:


yes, although not nearly the same amount of outpouring of "thoughts and prayers" as that for residents of other contries that experience mudslides, floods, etc...


Excellent point...
What is interesting is that El Nino tends to increase the number of tropical cyclones in the Pacific, both east, central and west as seen in 1997 and 1992. The typhoon season has been relatively quiet thus far and the Eastern Pacific normally have a depression by June 1. The Atlantic has had 1 depression and another that came close in a time frame 1-2 weeks before its start.

The prime development of El Nino during September is often indicated by June, so we'll see how next month goes.
2009 Louisiana Hurricane Preparedness Sales Tax Holiday


Baton Rouge, May 26, 2009

The 2009 Louisiana Hurricane Sales Tax Holiday will take place on Saturday, May 30, and Sunday, May 31. On these two days, shoppers can purchase specified emergency supplies free of the four-percent state sales tax in preparation for the 2009 hurricane season, which begins on June 1. Act 429 of the 2007 Regular Session of the Louisiana Legislature enacted R.S. 47:305.58 to provide for an annual state sales tax holiday on sales of hurricane-preparedness items or supplies made on the last Saturday and Sunday of each May.
CycloneOz I sent you an email that u might like to check out...

Drak that loop of Ike brings back some memories... all bad..lol!
Thanks press! :)

I was wondering...should I link to your site?

Right now...it's set to the blog.
Quoting Weather456:
sorry 1 in 1914
Wonder how much correlation there is between that low number and the start of WW1. . . .
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The GFS shows the makings of a quiet June.

384 hours out.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic


I would not make such a conclusion just yet, since the GFS' long range forecasts varies greatly from one run to another. I still think the SW Caribbean will have optimum conditions for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 7-14 days, as the MJO propagates over the area. The SSTs have also been warming anomalously fast--it might surpass last year's SSTs if this keeps up. All of these factors including a possible el nino, will make this season quite interesting.
i call upon the four angels,
from the four corners of the earth
too unbound thee the four winds
from the four corners of the earth

KOTG.

I think the statistical models are closer to correct on an early onset of el nino. I'm not saying we won't get into one, but I doubt we'll go over +.5 before the end of August. By then, the worst of the season will be upon us. I can see the potential el nino adding to the mix, but I don't think it will do more than shut the season down early.

Later, ya'll.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Its been a pretty quiet Pacific season so far.



It's been really quiet everywhere the past few months... starting to creep me out a bit. It's quiet for this long the chances of some epic storm rises... likely in the WPAC, id say about june 15. (my official gutcast™)
twas the night before hurricane season, when all through the land,
All the radios were tuned onto the weather band.

All the shelves were stocked, pantries full of supplies,
No one wanted this season to take them by surprise.

When suddenly out in the Gulf, a storm did appear,
And thousand of hearts were filled with fear.

For it seems every year their town is torn apart,
so they must follow the instincts down in their heart.

A meeting was called in such great haste,
This night an evacuation would take place.

The words "Get out of town" fell on deaf ears,
As some laugh and scoff and chug down more beers.

When the storm finaly came ashore the damage was done,
The town was silent, the people all numb,

All those who laughed and mocked those fleeing away,
Out in the sea at peace their bodies did lay.

-SRT-
Hurricane & Tropical Weather Index

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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
twas the night before hurricane season, when all through the land,
All the radios were tuned onto the weather band.

All the shelves were stocked, pantries full of supplies,
No one wanted this season to take them by surprise.

When suddenly out in the Gulf, a storm did appear,
And thousand of hearts were filled with fear.

For it seems every year their town is torn apart,
so they must follow the instincts down in their heart.

A meeting was called in such great haste,
This night an evacuation would take place.

The words "Get out of town" fell on deaf ears,
As some laugh and scoff and chug down more beers.

When the storm finaly came ashore the damage was done,
The town was silent, the people all numb,

All those who laughed and mocked those fleeing away,
Out in the sea at peace their bodies did lay.

-SRT-


very deep stuff
a sobering reminder that the season is upon us... I guess it means more to me now since Ike came ashore here... Some people's bodies have still never been found... kinda eery seeing them pulling bodies out of the marsh along a major highway several months after the storm came ashore
there still out there
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
a sobering reminder that the season is upon us... I guess it means more to me now since Ike came ashore here... Some people's bodies have still never been found... kinda eery seeing them pulling bodies out of the marsh along a major highway several months after the storm came ashore


I totally agree, drove over the Vets Bridge when they were out in the marsh. I will not drive past Hollywood Cemetery at all!
Quoting Samantha550:


I totally agree, drove over the Vets Bridge when they were out in the marsh. I will not drive past Hollywood Cemetery at all!


exactly Samantha... One of my friends in Bridge City had a coffin in her yard from a cemetery across the lake in Louisiana
Men and Women both have scoffed at the Sea for Decades and centuries.

But in the end,in due time,the Sea comes ashore and takes her toll.

And all that is left is the mourning.

Be prepared and heed the Warnings from your Local NWS and Emg Mgrs.







GFS shows the Bahamas area growing a little but not really developing 18 hours 30 minutes out.

you cannot out run the wind or surge
there is a lot of wisdom in saying that PAT and KEEP... The sea is a powerful thing and u can't out run it..

Off for now for my sunday afternoon nap... bbl!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you cannot out run the wind or surge


Run from the water and hide from the wind is an old saying that holds much truth.


Hey all, I'm back! So, what I've missed?
670. SRT... WOW!
Sounds like you been there. It was a bad bad time around here. And so true, sadly, about the ones who didn't pay heed.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS shows the Bahamas area growing a little but not really developing 18 hours 30 minutes out.



Some of the models also forecat a small low pressure system to form

Link
Still a pretty powerful Non-tropical low in the North East Atlantic.

Tornado warning in Maine:

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
525 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN NORTHERN MAINE...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 525 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 11 MILES WEST OF
MARS HILL...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF PRESQUE ISLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARS HILL BY 540 PM EDT...
EASTON BY 545 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CONTACTING YOUR NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

Quoting futuremet:


Some of the models also forecat a small low pressure system to form

Link


The GFS shows a small surface low at 33.5hours.

Embedded supercell in Maine has some pretty impressive rotation.

What is this? Are we going around the Atlantic Basin this afternoon, attempting to seek out either upper, middle, and or low level circulations or what? LOL, ROFL. Just teasing my good friends. I'm bored that's why. :)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
What is this? Are we going around the Atlantic Basin this afternoon, attempting to seek out either upper, middle, and or low level circulations or what? LOL, ROFL. Just teasing my good friends. I'm bored that's why. :)

Just testing some new software.
Quoting 2009hurricane:
I have a question. The Pacific Hurricane Season has been quiet and in the Atlantic, we had TD#1 and plus we're going into a weak El Nino phase. What does that mean?


It means the aforementioned remarks, bud.
Quoting Ossqss:


Run from the water and hide from the wind is an old saying that holds much truth.




IF you're going to hide from the wind, for God's sake HIDE WELL! And be aware of your trees. And which way the winds blowing. I've seen trees in brick houses. Some with walls broken down. Ive seen giant oaks resting on brick houses their limbs having come through the roof. I, for one, do not want to be in a house with a 20 foot tree limb through me.

It was so bad, Rita's winds. And while she did spawn tornadoes, for miles and miles inland every broken, uprooted tree or blown of roof, or demolished everything was all pointing in one direction. From airial photos it looked like a giant had stomped on East Texas smashing everything to the south. And we were on the "good" side of the storm. We got the "dirty" side of Ike.

And between those two theyve completely changed the landscape. After Rita organizations were giving away oak trees to replant the area. After Ike they are offering palm trees.

Just be aware of your surroundings. Be in a safe structure. And if you don't know already, pine trees break in half. Oak trees uproot.
And if you make it safely through the storm be prepared for some tough going for weeks to come. One thing I read on here last year that always stuck in my mind was Kman saying his house was like a fortress but he'd evacuate any way because after 24 hours with no power you'd sell your soul for a glass of ice water.

Ok. Sorry for the rant. But that saying always drives me nuts. Just want everyone to be aware. Someone posted the La. Medical Examiner's report post Gustav where repeatedly the cause of death was "crushed by fallen tree." And I don't think the people of Baton Rouge had any clue what was about to come their way. Ok I'm done. Y'all can put me on ignore now. If not I'll try not to be a broken record anymore. :)
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Watch out, SF. LOL.


What does that mean?
Quoting CaneWarning:


What does that mean?


Nothing, I was kidding when I typed that.
gonna be a slooooow season this year everybody relaxe and chill out
.
I personally think this 2009 Hurricane Season is going to be more active than the experts or others might think. I'm certainly no expert , but I think this year will be a setup similiar to 2004, probably 14/7/4 S/H/MH , but could go as high 16/9/5, just my opinion, hopefully it will be slow season with no threats to land, but all it takes is a bad one to hit your area and its been a bad year/season for you.
Quoting Drakoen:


That's pretty graphical there, Drak. But funny regardless, lol.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


That's pretty graphical there, Drak. But funny regardless, lol.


not funny
A possible tornado in Maine that is weather news don't expect a tornado there especially that far North.
Quoting Drakoen:
.


You took the little cyber figurine off, Drak?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Nothing, I was kidding when I typed that.


No I mean what does SF mean?
Humm, while exploring for some info, I stumbled across this wacky site that had some strange weather imagery from a decade ago a ways down the page. I did not bother with much of the text for it was strange also, but some of the images were, eh, er, weird. I guess they are real ?

Link

Not much else to see right now anyhow :)
I think there maybe a little action north of the Yucatan or between the Yucatan and Cuba along the stalled front. That's climatology for development this time of year.
Quoting Ossqss:
Humm, while exploring for some info, I stumbled across this wacky site that had some strange weather imagery from a decade ago a ways down the page. I did not bother with much of the text for it was strange also, but some of the images were, eh, er, weird. I guess they are real ?

Link

Not much else to see right now anyhow :)


Its sonic booms caused by aliens entering and leaving Earth's atmosphere.
Is that some more rain coming to the SW Florida coast that I see in the GOM.
Quoting CaneWarning:


No I mean what does SF mean?


It means South Florida, lol.
I would bet interested if they actually kept a stat on this: What is the most costliest or destructive TD on record? i.e. it never became a named storm. I believe the record for a is TS Allison is so I was wondering if they kept it for a TD.
How about, my wife let the kids have mountain dew (unaware), and it's a school night.

But, in all honesty, they haven't gotten along this well in weeks. LOL.
After last nights conversations I think you should add "where is CyberTeddy"

lol
So, my daughter (normally chatty) is speaking about 1000 wpm. Should I be worried? :)
lol the only time I pulled an all nighter was in andrew and that was because I was scared so I slept with my parents. edit: I was 5.
either people are ignoring my post at 710. or futily looking for the answer I looked for 20 mins and got nothing.
you can add can i have the latest mode runs Please



Quoting DestinJeff:
time for another installment of "A Few of the Most-Often Posted Words: T-Minus 6.5 Hours Edition"

"When is the MJO pulsing up next?"

"Not before 75W"

"This should be interesting"

"Looks like [system x] is starting to get its act together"

"Just logged in, what's the latest with our GOM blob?

"Hostile conditions"

"Man, if those models are right, then looks like [place x] will be on the dirty side of this one"

"NHC advisory is late"

"All I know, if I see Jim Cantore then it is time to leave!"

"I'm pulling an all-nighter to see if NHC upgrades it"

"Man, went to bed thinking [system x] was RIP and wake up this morning to a CAT 2. I bet it goes CAT 4 by the 11 o'clock by the looks of things"

"WOW! One hurricane, one TS, one invest, and the wave train has left the station... I'd say that is an ABOVE average season"

"Here's the latest steering map"

"Look at the water-vapor imagery..."

and more, and more, and more...
Quoting Vortex95:
either people are ignoring my post at 710. or futily looking for the answer I looked for 20 mins and got nothing.


I think you will find the most damage associated with a TD is after a landfall of a major cane in the US and it gets attached to the named storm as it is downgraded. That damage being flooding and Nado's. Just my take.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


It means South Florida, lol.


Oh, ok.
Quoting G35Wayne:
gonna be a slooooow season this year everybody relaxe and chill out


Weather predicting fail. No evidence to support this, we've already had a TD. We're not in an Offical El Nino yet and all you have to do is look at 2004.
i want snow in FL this time of year
Quoting Tazmanian:
i want snow in FL this time of year


You're gonna be waiting a VERY LONG time for that lol.
Quoting Tazmanian:
i want snow in FL this time of year


Ditto :)
I agree...it will be a slow year. We will have our 2 or 3 storms that will give some coastal area a huge scare but I do not see a line of 3 or 4 storms in a row heading for the Gulf or East Coast over a couple week span.
has of today there are no more Titanic survivor



Link
727. IKE
I shall return. Right now I will ramble on to a dinner of vegetable soup.
Interesting feature on the 18z GFS.

Quoting Tazmanian:
has of today there are no more Titanic survivor



Link


May her soul rest in peace.
Gotta love it.. a few hours to the start of the season.. and we have Florida Blobs :)


AOI #1

AOI #2

7 minutes until Hurricane Season in Zulu time.
How many of y'all currently on here are planing un staying up until the bewitching hour of midnight to welcome in the official start of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season? Cause I am.
Anyone know anything about the blob off the SW FL coast?
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Anyone know anything about the blob off the SW FL coast?


Part of a dying cold front. Link

Development possible, but highly unlikely considering wind shear.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Anyone know anything about the blob off the SW FL coast?



Ooohhh, yeah, I do, bud! It'll be going poof very shortly and that would be all that I know about that blob currently over there. Smiles.
Oh, I thought it was our 1st TS in the making :)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
How many of y'all currently on here are planing un staying up until the bewitching hour of midnight to welcome in the official start of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season? Cause I am.
hurricane season is already here as of gmt time
738. beell
Is it June, yet?

The begining of the 2009 season is not off to an easy start. The subtropical jet staying pretty much zonal across the ATL at/near 20N. Except for an upper trough off the E coast extending south near SA more often than not. Looks more like a winter time jet! Wind shear rules the MDR.

A persistant area of low pressure NE of the Bahamas where the jet splits in two. Our old friends, diffluence and divergence will keep this area unsettled. Our only hope for something, anything. More than likely-out to sea with it.
739. JRRP
here looks like new year!!!!!
I believe ossgss is right all the large storms take a long time to spin down thereby resulting in lots of rain and winds of at least 30mph for days if not a week.
Evening all

Just dropping by to get my first post of the 2009 season out of the way. Let's hope it's a quite one!
IMO The hurricane season starts when the first Tropical storm forms. Time almost means nothing.
12:21 AM EDT first tropical update on Central Florida News 13.
744. beell
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all

Just dropping by to get my first post of the 2009 season out of the way. Let's hope it's a quite one!


Hope I don't see you in TX this year SJ!-but TIA if it turns out that way!
Rather interesting SOI on its way up.

Mike check mail.
Y'all sure need a break beell...
I have no idea how many storms will form or will hit an area, how El Nino, La Nina, Neutral conditions will effect storms, but I am prepared and you should be too. Now on to the season....:)
Those lighter shaded blues near shore were once above sea level during the ice age. By the looks of it, Florida was a big blob extending all the way to the virgin islands. The Caribbean and gulf were like the great lakes compared to today. Parts of the gulf stream was merely a river.
749. beell
From you or the storms?
j/k!
Orca..Florida blobs! lol
Quoting WeatherStudent:
How many of y'all currently on here are planing un staying up until the bewitching hour of midnight to welcome in the official start of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season? Cause I am.


Nope.
omg weather student have you heard???
Quoting beell:
From you or the storms?
j/k!


Very nice :~)
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Anyone know anything about the blob off the SW FL coast?


LOL naples! In GMT time, you just posted the first post of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season and what do you know, it was about a blob off SW FL! :D Congrats!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


LOL naples! In GMT time, you just posted the first post of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane season and what do you know, it was about a blob off SW FL! :D Congrats!


LOL , isn't that something.
756. beell
Are you saying the "neutral" word, 23?


Positive values of the SOI are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia, popularly known as a La Nia episode. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. The most recent strong La Nia was in 1988/89. A moderate La Nia developed slowly during 2007.
Link

30 Day Moving SOI
hurricane season is overe happy NOV evere one
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe happy NOV evere one


Taz, are we just skipping the next 6 months?
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane season is overe happy NOV evere one


That would not be good for more reasons then just the hurricane season :)
Quoting CaneWarning:


Taz, are we just skipping the next 6 months?




yes lol am this massing with evere one
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes lol am this massing with evere one


We'd have a riot in here if we just skipped the season.
Insurers trying to scale back exposure
Insurers will raise premiums wherever state regulators allow them to, Hartwig said. "In areas where they are not given that opportunity, insurers are going to scale back their exposure."

In 2007, Florida ranked as the state with the greatest hurricane exposure, facing a potential $2.46 trillion in losses, according catastrophe risk-modeling firm AIR Worldwide Corp. A close second, New York had $2.38 trillion in exposure; and third was Texas with $895.1 billion of exposure.

Current forecasts suggest a less active season than was expected last year, encouraging news for anyone with property or investments that lie within hurricane-prone coastal areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms this year. The named storms are expected to include four to seven hurricanes, of which one to three are likely to be major storms.

"Even though the forecast for storms this year seems to be down, those of us who are worried about this stuff are concerned that the East Coast is due," said Charles Williamson, president of AIU Holdings' Private Client Group, a unit of New York-based American International Group Inc. that offers property casualty insurance. "The East Coast hurricane market, particularly Florida, is very volatile right now."

Tough for consumers to assess rates
Rising prices and deductibles may lead some homeowners to question whether they're overpaying.

"It is very difficult for consumers to figure out if they are being gouged or not," said J. Robert Hunter, a former Texas State Insurance Commissioner who is now director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America, a consumer advocacy group.

"You have to trust your state regulator," he said, referring to the fact that state officials limit how much insurers can charge.

The $26 billion casualty insurers paid out last year for catastrophe losses was substantially more than they expected. The companies also lost billions of dollars in the financial markets; they use investments to supplement their premium income and create a cushion for when they're hit by big claims.

For example, Allstate's catastrophic losses more than doubled in 2008 to $3.34 billion. This led the company to report a loss of $1.68 billion, or $3.07 per share, for the year, compared with net income of $4.64 billion, or $7.77 a share, in 2007.

During the first quarter of 2009, the insurer said, falling investment income contributed to a $274 million loss.

whats skipped the season evere one and start talking about snow
Quoting Tazmanian:
whats skipped the season evere one and start talking about snow


Snow is a boring subject for Florida!
it snows in FL all the time
Quoting mgreen91:
Insurers trying to scale back exposure
Insurers will raise premiums wherever state regulators allow them to, Hartwig said. "In areas where they are not given that opportunity, insurers are going to scale back their exposure."

In 2007, Florida ranked as the state with the greatest hurricane exposure, facing a potential $2.46 trillion in losses, according catastrophe risk-modeling firm AIR Worldwide Corp. A close second, New York had $2.38 trillion in exposure; and third was Texas with $895.1 billion of exposure.

Current forecasts suggest a less active season than was expected last year, encouraging news for anyone with property or investments that lie within hurricane-prone coastal areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted nine to 14 named tropical storms this year. The named storms are expected to include four to seven hurricanes, of which one to three are likely to be major storms.

"Even though the forecast for storms this year seems to be down, those of us who are worried about this stuff are concerned that the East Coast is due," said Charles Williamson, president of AIU Holdings' Private Client Group, a unit of New York-based American International Group Inc. that offers property casualty insurance. "The East Coast hurricane market, particularly Florida, is very volatile right now."

Tough for consumers to assess rates
Rising prices and deductibles may lead some homeowners to question whether they're overpaying.

"It is very difficult for consumers to figure out if they are being gouged or not," said J. Robert Hunter, a former Texas State Insurance Commissioner who is now director of insurance at the Consumer Federation of America, a consumer advocacy group.

"You have to trust your state regulator," he said, referring to the fact that state officials limit how much insurers can charge.

The $26 billion casualty insurers paid out last year for catastrophe losses was substantially more than they expected. The companies also lost billions of dollars in the financial markets; they use investments to supplement their premium income and create a cushion for when they're hit by big claims.

For example, Allstate's catastrophic losses more than doubled in 2008 to $3.34 billion. This led the company to report a loss of $1.68 billion, or $3.07 per share, for the year, compared with net income of $4.64 billion, or $7.77 a share, in 2007.

During the first quarter of 2009, the insurer said, falling investment income contributed to a $274 million loss.



I know all about this subject...I was dropped twice in two years!
Quoting Vortex95:
omg weather student have you heard???


What, sir?
Hope the hurricanes this year are two toned!!!
Quoting Tazmanian:
it snows in FL all the time


It actually isn't all that rare for snow in northern Florida.
yes how about hail the size of coconuts
Quoting beell:
Are you saying the "neutral" word, 23?


Positive values of the SOI are associated with stronger Pacific trade winds and warmer sea temperatures to the north of Australia, popularly known as a La Ni񡠥pisode. Waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become cooler during this time. Together these give an increased probability that eastern and northern Australia will be wetter than normal. The most recent strong La Ni񡠷as in 1988/89. A moderate La Ni񡠤eveloped slowly during 2007.
Link

30 Day Moving SOI


Could be temporary who knows.Something to keep an eye on as it could delay warm enso.
things can and will change
What a difference a day makes !
SAL is diminishing, the ITCZ is curving up over South America, almost to Venezuela, and there is cloud overhead Trinidad.
Some showers in the north of the island, and humidity is up to 83% right now.
Big change.
When did you say it would be June 1st ??
Quoting WeatherStudent:


What, sir?
i unbound thee the four winds from the four corners of the earth.
greetings pottery
Don't forget, because it is an El Nino year their is a very, very, very slim chance of a tropical system hitting California. Hurricane Linda is a good example, and also the 1939 tropical storm.
Yikes Keeper !
You have unleashed the 4 winds ??
Do you think that's wise ?
LOL
Quoting pottery:
What a difference a day makes !
SAL is diminishing, the ITCZ is curving up over South America, almost to Venezuela, and there is cloud overhead Trinidad.
Some showers in the north of the island, and humidity is up to 83% right now.
Big change.
When did you say it would be June 1st ??


I got some rain today. We might get some more tomorrow with the approach of the Twave interacting with a trough system over the region....
theway things are by the 20 th of the month things should slowly pickup nw carb gom quick local dev little warning then comes jul
Hey Dude. Lucky you.
I would not be surprised if we get a shower here tonight. Sure could use it.......
Quoting pottery:
Yikes Keeper !
You have unleashed the 4 winds ??
Do you think that's wise ?
LOL
we got quite a stretch ahead of us now let the tale be told for 09
Sounds to me like you are all set, Keeper.
let the tale be told for 09


for some reason i like that keeper!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hurricane season is already here as of gmt time

In the U.S., at 12 a.m., the East Coast will be in hurricane season, yet the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX will not be for another hour. Gotta stay up that extra hour keeper!
Does anyone here have GEMPAK. If so how is it?
784
who`s going asleep 181 days till nov 30

lol
787. beell
Quoting hurricane23:


Could be temporary who knows.Something to keep an eye on as it could delay warm enso.


Quite an abrupt change to the plunge anyway-thanks for posting.
Quoting pottery:
Sounds to me like you are all set, Keeper.


Hey Pottery, good to hear from you, has the water problem on the island been fixed?
Quoting CaneWarning:


I know all about this subject...I was dropped twice in two years!


I agree as I was dropped too.... I just can't go through that again

taco :0)

water temperatures of at least 26.5 C (79.7 F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms.
Not till it rains, RTL....
(left a missage for you on Hoods page)
Quoting taco2me61:


I agree as I was dropped too.... I just can't go through that again

taco :0)


I'm with Citizens now. I don't think they can drop me...not sure though. Nobody else will have me.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I'm with Citizens now. I don't think they can drop me...not sure though. Nobody else will have me.


I'm with Farmers now.... Had allstate but that lasted 15 yrs because allstate will not do Home owners insurance here in lower Al....

Taco :0(
Hurricane season in two hours (eastern time)
I have my hurricane Felix T-shirt set out for tomorrow
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Hurricane season in two hours (eastern time)
I have my hurricane Felix T-shirt set out for tomorrow


With all due respect I wish we could just skip this season all to gether

Taco :0)
Well is there anyone on here now????
Hi Taco,
Thanks for the update!:)
I'm here, I'm screaming at the penguins game lol.
OK thanks LOL

Just checking.... the board is moving slow or there is not anything to talk about....

Taco :0)
Just nobody talking.
803. XL
Hi all

Well I am here, ready for the start of the season. As prepared as I think I can be, but hoping for a quiet season, knowing nothing and relying on you guys for lots of information.

Thank you all in advance for all your information and insight.

XL
You know why I wish this season would not come.... That every year 1997,02,04 and 06 we here along the North Gulf Coast had a storm to hit whether it was a Tropical storm or a Hurricane.... But all 4 years that were said, something hit the north gulf....

In 97 we had Hurricane "Danny" that dumped 30 inches of rain in a 24hr period....

so on that note I am ready to skip the hole season....

Taco :0)
Only the Florida Blob..and even it's nothing.
The season is a bust.. lets all go home.

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Orcaster please do not say that mr. ster will say somthing heh.
Quoting Vortex95:
Orcaster please do not say that mr. ster will say somthing heh.


I am being good.. honest I am :)
well sorry guys but I'm out for the night.... 5am comes early and work for the next 2 days.... then off to Houston TX for a wedding......

You all play nice and I will chat tomorrow....

Taco :-)
Hey, all.

Just checking in as it is, after all, the first day of the season.

Mostly hurricane-free up here in Nova Scotia, but there are exceptions, like Juan in 2003, so I keep an eye out here.

We did have a wicked storm back in December, not named, but hurricane strength for sure. I've spent the past few months walking around town. a tremendous number of trees blown down, mostly conifers. One guy I spoke to had just finished taking 25 cord of wood off his 2.5 acre lot from trees that were blown down by that storm. But it didn't have a name, so it got no publicity.

Anyway, best wishes to all.
Does anyone know if this wind shear is normal for this time of year. If this keeps up we wont need a El Nino this summer.
Hey Taco, I'm also with Farmers here in Mobile. I was with State Farm but Farmers had a lower hurriane duductable and you can change the deductable to a higher rate at the end of the season. I think they're a pretty sound outfit. Hope we dont have to use it.
Beautiful night here in west central florida. Wish we could have one of these cold fronts come through once a month all summer long. Keep those gulf sst's down and give us great sleeping weather!
55 min and counting left, all.
hey hows everyone doing ??????
Hey There TheRisingTide good to see you on here... I sure hope Farmers will be better than Allstate.... I hope we will not need to use it this year....


Taco :0)



Quoting taco2me61:
OK thanks LOL

Just checking.... the board is moving slow or there is not anything to talk about....

Taco :0)


Nothing to talk about.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Nothing to talk about.


ROFLMAO----- This is so true---- "Nothing to Talk About"
Quoting WeatherStudent:
55 min and counting left, all.


I might stay up with you after all to ring in the new season. I'm not sleepy at all and I'm working on a project. Who knows, we'll see.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
55 min and counting left, all.
do you have your flashlights and batteries ready
Quoting taco2me61:


ROFLMAO----- This is so true---- "Nothing to Talk About"


Maybe it will stay like that too. Although, this blog does need a blob or something to keep us occupied.
Watching TWISTER for the second time tonight..
yah that true it is kinda boring in here
Quoting CaneWarning:


Maybe it will stay like that too. Although, this blog does need a blob or something to keep us occupied.


They will come and then you and I will not get a word in edge wise.... Because of all the talk.... LOL

The only problem is it might be mid July before we have our 1st storm so it want be much to talk about untill then....

Taco :-)
Quoting RMM34667:
Watching TWISTER for the second time tonight..


What channel is it on so i can see it too....

Taco :0)
Quoting taco2me61:


They will come and then you and I will not get a word in edge wise.... Because of all the talk.... LOL

The only problem is it might be mid July before we have our 1st storm so it want be much to talk about untill then....

Taco :-)


You are right. When it is busy there will be so many posts made it will be hard to keep up. That's when I'll start using the ignore button. Plus, I have a feel admin won't hesitate to ban the trouble makers (hope I'm not one of them!)
yah i wander how many hurricanes are going to hit texas this year
TWISTER on TNT
CaneWarning
I just hope I'm not one of them either.... and yes I Love the Ignore Button....

Taco :0)
Quoting gordydunnot:
Does anyone know if this wind shear is normal for this time of year. If this keeps up we wont need a El Nino this summer.


This kind of shear is roughly normal. If you look at the shear maps of the entire Atlantic basin, Caribbean, and GOM, you will see that the Caribbean is slowly clearing up with shear, and the GOM's shear is directly influenced by fronts coming through. Once the fronts stop getting this far south (which should be soon), the GOM will have much less shear. Also, the A-B high (the gigantic semi-permanent high pressure system in the Atlantic) is driving the shear. Once that pulls a bit further north over the next 2 months, the shear will drop drastically.
Quoting RMM34667:
TWISTER on TNT


"Thank You So Much"

I love that movie....

Taco :0)
btw Weather Student Im surprised you haven't heard.

Quoting taco2me61:
CaneWarning
I just hope I'm not one of them either.... and yes I Love the Ignore Button....

Taco :0)


I only use the ignore button during peak season.
833. JRRP
at this time of the year we had in:
2005....8 tropical wave
2006....4 tropical wave
2007....2 tropical wave
2008....8 tropical wave
2009....6 tropical wave
Quoting JRRP:
at this time of the year we had in:
2005....8 tropical wave
2006....4 tropical wave
2007....2 tropical wave
2008....8 tropical wave
2009....6 tropical wave


We've had 6 waves already?
Quoting CaneWarning:


I might stay up with you after all to ring in the new season. I'm not sleepy at all and I'm working on a project. Who knows, we'll see.


Steller, thanks. 30 min and counting.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Steller, thanks. 30 min and counting.


Yeah, I just happen to be up so why not.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Steller, thanks. 30 min and counting.


I think that at this point, the count is moot. We have had our season started already by TD 1. So, it's not T-minus, it's T-plus.
hurricane season dosent start till another hour and a half here
839. JRRP
Quoting CaneWarning:


We've had 6 waves already?

yeah
Hello Fellow Weatherwundergrounders... I am up finishing a research paper and so am joining the crew for the official ribbon cutting of hurricane season 2009.
Quoting CaneWarning:


We've had 6 waves already?


Yea I thought I must have missed something too...

But i do think that the Low Pressure that hit Dauphin Island AL was a "sub Tropical Storm" with 45mph Winds....

Taco :0)
Quoting JRRP:

yeah


But only two were invests.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hello Fellow Weatherwundergrounders... I am up finishing a research paper and so am joining the crew for the official ribbon cutting of hurricane season 2009.


Welcome, Chicklet!
Any final train of thoughts which made our off-season a memorable one, folks?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Welcome, Chicklet!


Yes watching Twister on TNT and bring in Hurricane season.... All I can say is "OMG"

Taco :0)
Quoting CaneWarning:


We've had 6 waves already?

Yep. The SAL and shear have been fairly active so far this year, and the ITCZ has been VERY far south so far, so while waves tend to hang around 5-15 degrees north, they have been closer to straddling the equator.
Quoting taco2me61:


Yes watching Twister on TNT and bring in Hurricane season.... All I can say is "OMG"

Taco :0)


OMG.. goosebumps. again
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Any final train of thoughts which made our off-season a memorable one, folks?


I hope we have blobs to watch and even a hurricane or two...all staying out to sea touching no land.
849. JRRP
Some of them have vanished of the map.... but yes we have had 6 wave
Quoting JRRP:
Some of them have vanished of the map.... but yes we have had 6 wave


I guess I haven't followed them all that much unless they were classified as an invest.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I hope we have blobs to watch and even a hurricane or two...all staying out to sea touching no land.


Agree 100%

They all can stay out there and not hit anything....

Taco :0)
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Any final train of thoughts which made our off-season a memorable one, folks?
the return of jfv
Since it's quiet, I'll get on my soapbox. PLEASE, as you prepare for yourself and your family for this upcoming season, prepare for your pets as well. And if you have to evacuate, please take your pets with you.
here a topic what the worst hurricane that you guys went throught ?????????
2 more mins...ready to ''pop'' the champagne?
Quoting dis1322:
here a topic what the worst hurricane that you guys went throught ?????????


Andrew.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Link


Thats cool as all get out....
i like that

Thanks
Quoting dis1322:
here a topic what the worst hurricane that you guys went throught ?????????


Ivan for me in 2004
Happy official start to Hurricane season. May we all be safe and prepared.
welcome 2009 atlantic hurricane season!!!
Ivan and Katrina here....
863. JRRP
and the month with more waves since 2005 till now is june 2005 with 15 TW
Frances here. Here's to a safe season for everyone.
It's 12:00
866. SLU
Welcome everyone to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Let's all hope for a quiet year with lots of invests and many "fish storms" so that we can all sit infront of our computers and admire them with no fear on this blog.

2009
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda
lifting my almost empty glass to a quiet and uneventful 2009 Hurricane Season. Lots of blobs and wannabe hurricane. Too Many interesting recurves (out to sea of course). Cheers!
Quoting SLU:
Welcome everyone to the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Let's all hope for a quiet year with lots of invests and many "fish storms" so that we can all sit infront of our computers and admire them with no fear on this blog.

2009
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda


Those names do not scare me.
well for me was hurricane dolly which was a category 2 we had a category 5 that was beaulah in 1969 but i wasnt alive
870. JRRP
Quoting dis1322:
here a topic what the worst hurricane that you guys went throught ?????????

Georges 1998
Goodnight everyone. I'll be back tomorrow for Dr. Master's season outlook.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, I WELCOME YOU ALL TO THE 2009 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT 6 MONTHS WE'LL BE CHALLENGING FOR US ALL, BUT HOPEFULLY WE'LL PREVAIL THROUGH IT ALL INTACT.

CHEERS, SMILES, WOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
873. JRRP
see you tomorrow
Quoting RMM34667:
lifting my almost empty glass to a quiet and uneventful 2009 Hurricane Season. Lots of blobs and wannabe hurricane. Too Many interesting recurves (out to sea of course). Cheers!


("") ("") ("") my cups are running over ...

Lets have a very quite season....

Taco :0)
got 2 cases of mre's w/heaters stocked here in sarasota,fl...just need to by some gas,fruit,water and TP when a TC threatens my area I've got over 24,000 calories combined between the 2 cases,should provide meals for me and whoever else I can help for 72hrs after.....I do need to buy some batteries however.....
Quoting CaneWarning:


Those names do not scare me.


I think Hurricane Fred will be a problem. Fred's been a problem for me ever since he married my sister!!
Good Nite all
see you tomorrow....

Taco :0)
next shuttle mission going up on june 13th,if all goes as planned
111....patrap????,think you could help me a little here????,lol
Quoting RMM34667:


I think Hurricane Fred will be a problem. Fred's been a problem for me ever since he married my sister!!


You are so funny..... Thank you and have a good nite....

Taco :0)
Quoting taco2me61:


You are so funny..... Thank you and have a good nite....

Taco :0)


Nite taco!!
later alkl next up the docs outlook and the 3 hr season opener of hurr.bob show tonight at 8 pm

off to bed for me work in the morning
Hurricane Fred will landfall where Hurricane Wilma did.
RRM34667 :0)

Nite Sweetie....


Taco :0)
most people here don't honestly want a slow hurricane season,do we??,lets be realistic most of us are probably borderline obsessed w/weather,no???...now I'm not saying that I want death and destruction,but watching these storms is hella fun to me and I love it,it really is the people's responsiblities whom can be effect by these storms to take pro-active action in either leaving or stocking up and "sticking it out"..either way mother nature w/do her thing this year and I hope everyone stays well and safe,But I'd love a busy season,honestly....
Quoting CaneWarning:


Those names do not scare me.


The name I'm dreading is the "R" name in 2011.

Its RINA. Don't know why but something about that name don't sound good. Geesh a combination of the terrible twins. Who picks these names? lol
that is true (still waiting ) i agree
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Hurricane Fred will landfall where Hurricane Wilma did.


Bite Your Tounge!!! we have been affected by Frances, Jean, Wilma. Wilma was the scariest - seeing my glass doors bow! And I think the silliest thing I ever did was to go outside to check something during a nasty Katrina feeder band as it passed through on its way to destruction and having to hide my face against the wall till it passed. Definitely not one of my brightest moments. Cheers for an uneventful season and safety to all.
Link

Interesting Article from the Miami Herald "be a survivor not a victim"
Worst hurricane ever? Andrew. I lived in South Kendall, there was a camper in a tree. A CAMPER!
Homelesswanderer...lolz at RINA... That would be horrible if we got RINA here in SeTx...
worst storm i went through wind wise was Rita.. water wise was IKE... cool wise Humberto... dud was Eduard.
Stillwaitn--
I agree with ya.. I don't want the destruction or death but Love watching formation... And that is exactly why everyone is on here...
The 18z GFS brought a full-fledged winter storm into CA on June 14, with heavy rain, strong winds, and the like. Truly a bizarre summer pattern…
Wettest May in six years for Sydney
Monday June 1, 2009

Sydney has just experienced its wettest May for six years, according to weatherzone.com.au.

The city picked up 126mm throughout the month, slightly above the long term normal of 122mm. This made it the wettest May since 2003.

The wet weather was also a feature across the northeast quarter of New South Wales, where torrential falls caused flooding during the middle of the month. Dorrigo received a whopping 934mm, including over 400mm in one 24-hour period, making it the wettest May there in 12 years.

In contrast, southern and western parts of New South Wales continued their extended period of drought, with yet another month of below average rainfall. In fact, some towns in the Riverina and Southwest Slopes districts received less than a quarter of their average May rainfall.

"May was dominated by a large area of high pressure to the south of Australia, which resulted in persistent easterly winds across New South Wales. These carried moisture across the northeast of the state, and when this moisture interacted with troughs, heavy rain occurred," weatherzone.com.au meteorologist Matt Pearce said.

"However, the ridge of high pressure also prevented cold fronts from pushing up from the Southern Ocean. It is these weather systems that are typically relied upon to bring rain to southern New South Wales at this time of year."

Temperatures were up. Sydney had an average maximum of 21 degrees, above the long term normal of 19. This made it the warmest May in terms of daytime temperatures since 2007. However, there were some cool days towards the end of the month. For example, on the 30th, the temperature got to just 17 degrees, the coldest May day in three years.

Nights were also warm. Sydney%u2019s average minimum of 13 degrees was above the long term normal of 11. This made it the warmest May in terms of overnight temperatures since 2007. In fact, on the morning of the 24th, the mercury fell to just 17 degrees, making it the warmest May night in two years.

When both daytime and overnight temperatures were combined, Sydney%u2019s average temperature came in at 17 degrees, above the long term normal of 15. This made it the warmest May since 2007.

In contrast, the northeast quarter of the state experienced cooler than normal days, as a result of the persistent cloud cover and rainfall. For example, Casino had an average maximum of 22 degrees, its lowest for May in 14 years of records.

"We are expecting rainfall to continue close to normal over the next few months," Pearce said.


- Weatherzone
HS 2009 i like pie.
Photos from Friday night's storm.

ABNT20 KNHC 010540
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL AVERAGES OF TROPICAL
STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 11...
6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANA AH- NAH LARRY
BILL MINDY
CLAUDETTE CLAW DET- NICHOLAS NIK- O LAS
DANNY ODETTE O DET-
ERIKA ERR- REE KA PETER
FRED ROSE
GRACE SAM
HENRI AHN REE- TERESA TE REE- SA
IDA VICTOR VIC- TER
JOAQUIN WAH KEEN- WANDA
KATE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING
THIS YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO CONTAIN CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES
OF FORMATION...I.E. LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OR HIGH...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR EACH DISTURBANCE
DESCRIBED. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...
2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN
NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM
EDT.

IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT COULD
BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN
BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE SPECIAL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND WILL NO
LONGER BE ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO
AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN
ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO
ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

USERS WILL NOTICE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO REFERENCES TO THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC
PRODUCTS THIS YEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE CATEGORY
(1 TO 5) IS DETERMINED SOLELY BY THE HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED...THE SCALE TRADITIONALLY HAS ALSO INCLUDED STORM SURGE
RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES. ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR THE
2009 HURRICANE SEASON...THESE STORM SURGE RANGES AND FLOODING
REFERENCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE DESCRIPTIONS FOR EACH CATEGORY.
WITH THIS MODIFICATION...THE SCALE HAS BEEN RENAMED THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO
THE WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS OF THE SCALE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EXPERIMENTAL CHANGE AND ON HOW TO PROVIDE COMMENTS...PLEASE
SEE /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INFOSERVICECHANGES/SSHWS.PDF

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
The worst hurricane I've been through? Carla, my first 9/11 event. I was born a few days before it hit. My dad waited to see that I was alive and well, and took off with our family's belongings to move us to where he had a new teaching job in S. Texas. Then Carla landed. Dad was stranded, most of our stuff ruined. Mom was alone with a newborn and a 13 month old, with no place to live. It was one of the strongest storms to hit the continental US. From wikipedia (which in this case is pretty accurate):

Meteorological history

Storm path

A tropical depression developed in the western Caribbean Sea on September 3 from a disturbance in the Intertropical Convergence Zone. It moved northwestward, becoming Tropical Storm Carla on the 5th and Hurricane Carla on the 6th. After skimming the Yucat%uFFFDn Peninsula as a weak hurricane, Carla entered the Gulf of Mexico and headed for the U.S. Gulf Coast.

As it moved slowly across the Gulf of Mexico, Carla steadily strengthened to its peak of 175 mph (280 km/h) winds (Category 5 intensity) on September 11. Just before landfall, it weakened, but Carla was still a very strong and unusually large Category 4 hurricane at its landfall between Port O'Connor and Port Lavaca, Texas, on the 11th. At the time, Carla became the largest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin.[2] Along the entire Texas coast, hurricane warnings were put into effect, causing a large evacuation of low-lying areas.

Evacuation

Hurricane Carla killed 43 people, 31 lived in Texas. The low death toll is credited to what was then the largest peacetime Evacuation in United States history. Around 500,000 residents headed inland from exposed coastal areas.
Impact

Storm surge was measured at 22 feet (6.6 m) near the heads of bays, in some places penetrating 10 miles inland. Because of its large size, the entire Texas coast was affected, and damage was reported as far inland as Dallas. Sustained winds were reported to be 115 mph in Matagorda, 110 mph in Victoria and 88 mph in Galveston. Wind gusts as high as 170 mph were recorded at Port Lavaca. Pressure at landfall was measured at 931 mb (hPa), making it the eighth most intense hurricane to strike the United States in the 20th century. Then little-known newsman Dan Rather reported live from the Galveston Seawall during the storm, an act that would be imitated by later reporters. This marked the first live television broadcast of a hurricane.

Rainfall map

Much of the damage was done well away from the landfall site, as Carla spawned one of the largest hurricane-related tornado outbreaks on record at the time, when 26 tornadoes touched down within its circulation.[3] One F4 tornado ripped through downtown Galveston, killing several (sources differ on the exact number, varying from 6 to 12). Outside the protection of the Galveston Seawall, structures on the island were severely damaged by storm surge. Damage was reported as far east as the Mississippi River delta.

As Carla weakened, it dropped heavy rain in the Midwest , causing some flooding.

Carla killed 43 people, 31 of them in Texas. The low death toll is credited to what was then the largest peacetime evacuation in US history. One half million residents headed inland from exposed coastal areas. Carla caused a total of $325 million (1961 USD, $2.03 billion 2005 USD) in damage, not much considering Carla's strength at landfall.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Homelesswanderer...lolz at RINA... That would be horrible if we got RINA here in SeTx...


I hear ya SRT. Just hoping Karita's not a name.
LOL.
And so it starts...
jpritch

I had forgotten about Carla. She was a monster with Ike's size and Rita's winds,or worse. Our little corner of SE Texas did not escape her wrath either. I can only imagine how bad it was to be at her center. I'm glad you and your family made it through. That was a little before my time.But not much. :) There are some paralels to our stories. My husand was born while Hurricane Cindy was coming on shore in his hometown on Sept.16,1963. And he always let me think I was the jinx. LOL. Also, I, and about 2 million other people, were part of the much maligned next biggest peacetime evacuation. AKA the Texodus. The low death tolls for both Carla and Rita are a testament to a successful evacuation. My extended family and I were cut off from each other until we all landed in the same motel and town after about a weeks seperation. Then my husband had to go to work stranding me and my daughter 250 miles from home with no car.And probably from my handle you can tell how else our stories were similar. I'm glad you shared your story. :) May we never have another like this to compare.
Hmmm? I just noticed a pattern here. 1961 was Carla. 1963 was Cindy. And 2007 was Humberto. All those years they were the only U.S. landfalling hurricanes for that year. Other than that's just weird. I'm also thinkin' I don't like the slow years too much either. Yikes!
Happy Hurricane season 2009!
Funny how despite all the predictions and expectations of a third straight May storm, it didn't -quite- happen, although close.


Quoting Cotillion:
Funny how despite all the predictions and expectations of a third straight May storm, it didn't -quite- happen, although close.




Extremely close, TD-1 and 90L both should have been named in my opinion.
Quoting gator23:
Link

Interesting Article from the Miami Herald "be a survivor not a victim"


I read the article. Your emergency management people are naive. And after all thats gone on in the recent years they really shouldnt be. You better hope those best building codes in the nation are enough. And love the line about actual victims being bums not taking care of themselves. And "shadow evacuees" messing it up for everyone. He's a piece of work. There are some of the things set up here. For instance the stores to be open etc. People who do stay home and are self supplied. Some of them actually live. They can simulate all they want. IF that 150 mph storm does hit the Miami/Dade area look out because your fearless leaders have no idea whats coming. Staying or leaving is everyone's choice. You should not be made to feel less of a person if you choose to get your family out of harms way. Even if you do live in Florida!
Quoting CaneWarning:


Those names do not scare me.


Ida replaced Isabel, Isabel was the worst Hurricane I was ever in.
Looks like the models wants to have a early start this season.

Long rance ECMWF, CMC, GFS, and mid range NOGAPS are all showing something in the Caribbean. I have been monitoring this possible scenario over the past week or two, knowing the MJO moving the aware will provide optimum conditions for tropical cyclogenesis.
00
ABNT20 KNHC 010540
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM ANNUAL AVERAGES OF TROPICAL
STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS BASIN ARE 11...
6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2009 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
--------------------------------------------------------------
ANA AH- NAH LARRY
BILL MINDY
CLAUDETTE CLAW DET- NICHOLAS NIK- O LAS
DANNY ODETTE O DET-
ERIKA ERR- REE KA PETER
FRED ROSE
GRACE SAM
HENRI AHN REE- TERESA TE REE- SA
IDA VICTOR VIC- TER
JOAQUIN WAH KEEN- WANDA
KATE

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEGINNING
THIS YEAR...THE OUTLOOK WILL ALSO CONTAIN CATEGORICAL PROBABILITIES
OF FORMATION...I.E. LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...MEDIUM...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OR HIGH...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR EACH DISTURBANCE
DESCRIBED. THE ISSUANCE TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 2 AM...8 AM...
2 PM...AND 8 PM EDT. AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN
NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 1 AM...7 AM...1 PM...AND 7 PM
EDT.

IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT COULD
BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES IN
BETWEEN ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE SPECIAL
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AND WILL NO
LONGER BE ISSUED. INSTEAD...A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE
REGULARLY SCHEDULED ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO
AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE
DISCUSSION...AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED
EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN
ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO
ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE
ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. TROPICAL CYCLONE
UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCUAT1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

USERS WILL NOTICE A SLIGHT CHANGE TO REFERENCES TO THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE IN NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PUBLIC
PRODUCTS THIS YEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE CATEGORY
(1 TO 5) IS DETERMINED SOLELY BY THE HURRICANE'S MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED...THE SCALE TRADITIONALLY HAS ALSO INCLUDED STORM SURGE
RANGES AND FLOODING REFERENCES. ON AN EXPERIMENTAL BASIS FOR THE
2009 HURRICANE SEASON...THESE STORM SURGE RANGES AND FLOODING
REFERENCES WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE DESCRIPTIONS FOR EACH CATEGORY.
WITH THIS MODIFICATION...THE SCALE HAS BEEN RENAMED THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO
THE WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS OF THE SCALE. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
THIS EXPERIMENTAL CHANGE AND ON HOW TO PROVIDE COMMENTS...PLEASE
SEE /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/INFOSERVICECHANGES/SSHWS.PDF

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
913. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
long range CMC


Interesting.


MJO forecast.
Quoting futuremet:
long range CMC


Curious, though still a long way out.. and the pulse hasn't quite hit (Of course, on the assumption it's as important as last year - which may not be the case). From what I seem to recall from last year, models are a bit too hyperactive in creating lows from the Panama area.
Good Morning!

Rather tight spin for an extra-tropical low, something to get you all in the mood.

GOES Visable Wide Atlantic

Loop

...We had Season's in the Sun...

By the way, the next CSU forecast from Klotzbach and Gray comes out tomorrow. In April, they went for 12-6-2 - a relatively average season on the long term scale, and below average since 1995 in the AMO+ avg.

I think an article was linked a little while ago indicating they may lower it further with the increased signals leading towards an El Nino forecast. Maybe down to 11-5-2, who knows...

With El Nino may not being around for a few more months yet, sticking around at 12-6-2 might be more worthwhile.
919. IKE
Air France flight with 228 people aboard dropped off radar today on route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, the airline said.
Air France Plane Drops Off Radar Over Atlantic

Monday, June 01, 2009


DEVELOPING: An Air France plane travelling from Brazil to Paris with 228 people aboard has missed its scheduled arrival time and disappeared from radar screens, a spokeswoman for the Paris airports authority told Reuters on Monday.

"The plane was expected in Paris at 11:10 a.m. (0910 GMT)," the spokeswoman told the news agency.

"We are very worried," he said. "The plane disappeared from the screens several hours ago.

"It could be a transponder problem, but this kind of fault is very rare and the plane did not land when expected."

Air traffic control lost contact with the Airbus A330 at 6 a.m. GMT after it took off from Rio de Janeiro, bound for Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris.

Airport authorities have set up a "crisis cell" at the Paris airport.

The plane is said to be carrying 216 passengers and 12 crew.
921. IKE
6Z GFS at 216 hours or 9 days...corresponds with the GEM and ECMWF....

922. IKE
Well...it is hurricane season....

6Z GFS @ 288 hours....

Hurricane Season has begun...

Wow!
924. IKE
Full blown cane at 384 hours on the 6Z GFS....

Good morning,

Happy June 1st...

Of course the blog doesn't waste time noticing possible upcoming event(s) unfolding by late next week into 1 1/2 weeks.

Indeed... coinciding with GFS MJO arrival into the Caribbean. Yesterday's GFS run showed the initiazion of this possible system. Now that we have ECMWF confirmation we should definitely be on the look out.

As Future... has also posted, CMC has joined the "club" so should be an interesting month. It has been mentioned before... but these 2 months activities should help foresee how the rest of this HURR season could be.
Good Morning ALL...
Have stopped in a few times but havent posted since last season.
Just want to wish everyone a safe Hurricane season this year.
Good Morning;

Good morning.
It must be June 1.
Woke up to a cloudy sky, and 83% humidity.
does anyone else here have problems posting pictures?
930. IKE
Quoting stormdude77:
does anyone else here have problems posting pictures?


Nope. WU runs slows occasionally when I hit refresh.
Ike I look at the runs I saw the ECWMF and saw it. Then I look at the 06Z GFS and yea.

I was actually waiting on the latter and forgot.
933. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Ike I look at the runs I saw the ECWMF and saw it. Then I look at the 06Z GFS and yea.

I was actually waiting on the latter and forgot.


Just letting you know:)
I will also have to change my method. What I do is that I first look at the cyclogenesis maps shown below to get an idea of where to look or if the models are forecasting anything. But is fatally flawed at times. I will have to run the models regardless of what it shows.

00Z

Well,
Its Hurricane Season!
I hope everyone stays safe and is prepared.

I will be watching for development next week in the NW Caribbean.
937. IKE
Buoy 262 NM south of Panama City,FL. shows water temp warming up....

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SSE ( 160 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 83.7 °F
938. IKE
Buoy at the Yucatan basin....42056...Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 143 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.7 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 89.2 °F
Now THIS woman looks like she's prepared for hurricane season...

Link
456...you really do a great job....Thanks1
Quoting IKE:
Full blown cane at 384 hours on the 6Z GFS....



Which blob? It looks like there are several?
917 PATRAP

Thanks so much for that blast from the past. I had to listen twice.....
I have the day off today and it could not have happened on a better day. I always like to relax come June 1.

press, thanks and anytime.

Even though the GFS is almost 2 weeks out, there is reason to it.

Twins

Quoting Weather456:
I have the day off today and it could not have happened on a better day. I always like to relax come June 1.

press, thanks and anytime.

Even though the GFS is almost out 2 weeks out, there is reason to it.


Doesn't it coincide with an upward MJO?
you're a funny guy, jeff.
were you the one that came up with the joke about hebert's box? i'm still trying to remember that one. it was funny.
are we seeing el nino conditions yet?
Quoting CaneWarning:


Which blob? It looks like there are several?


The one in the SEGOM...near FL
Quoting CaneWarning:


Doesn't it coincide with an upward MJO?


yea
Quoting stormdude77:


The one in the SEGOM...near FL


Too close to home.
A well-define tropcial wave along an anomalously south ITCZ.

Looks like there's some long-range computer model consensus. We'll see what happens. Nothing to buy into yet.
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like there's some long-range computer model consensus. We'll see what happens. Nothing to buy into yet.


It gives us something to watch at least.
It looks like the convection and the convective area should substantially increase next week a long with lowering shear values.
Quoting IKE:
Air France flight with 228 people aboard dropped off radar today on route from Rio de Janeiro to Paris, the airline said.


Things don't look good for the plane. It reported some type of electrical problem just before it disappeared.
Wow nice tropical healthy wave but shouldn't be that far out at this time of the year.And does the GFS take this Low there developing into Florida?I guess it's to early too tell.
956. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Things don't look good for the plane. It reported some type of electrical problem just before it disappeared.


Doesn't look good at all for the 228 on board.
i guess the plane was nowhere near the bermuda triangle?
Anything forming in the Caribbean could experience significant intensification.
Wow hurricane season really is starting but still my guesstimate is June 19th for a storm to form.Sadly EPAC is more silent than us.
907. IKE
00Z ECMWF still shows western Caribbean development

Yes, it first showed up on the 5/31 00z run, and has maintained over the next 2, but the track has been changing, and it's pushed out in time keeping the same position at +72 hours, one day later. Still worth watching.

Quoting K8eCane:
i guess the plane was nowhere near the bermuda triangle?


They shouldn't have been anywhere near it. Normally crashes/landings at sea do not turn out well.

day 1
Quoting Drakoen:
It looks like the convection and the convective area should substantially increase next week a long with lowering shear values.


what do u mean
thanks cane
i wasnt sure
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
stupid question wat MJO
plz tell me
am looking forword to the ENSO
Based on what the models are showing, the 500 mb heights show a good amount of heat and moisture content in the atmopshere which should lead to favorable outflow pattern, ie, low shear across the Caribbean over the upcoming weeks.

Normally high geopotential heights in the upper atmosphere is an indicator of convection, heat and moisture. Much like a rising cake.

969. IKE
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
907. IKE
00Z ECMWF still shows western Caribbean development

Yes, it first showed up on the 5/31 00z run, and has maintained over the next 2, but the track has been changing, and it's pushed out in time keeping the same position at +72 hours, one day later. Still worth watching.



I went back and looked. Looks like it really became apparent on yesterdays 12Z ECMWF run...although there's not much to it then.

I'm going out-on-a-limb. I'll say it's slightly stronger on today's 12Z ECMWF run, based on what the 6Z GFS is showing.

Now watch them both drop it and make me out to be an idiot.
IKE (Caps, 'cause we can.[also 'cause we can't change it])

Now watch them both drop it and make me out to be an idiot.

Not sure why that would be so.

456
rising cake
LOL

Jiffy pop?
972. IKE
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
IKE (Caps, 'cause we can.[also 'cause we can't change it])

Now watch them both drop it and make me out to be an idiot.

Not sure why that would be so.


Not sure why I put it in all caps. That was 4+ years ago and almost 19,000 posts ago.

Truthfully, I doubt they'll both drop it.
155 hrs and counting. wouldnot be surprising. cnn said the jet was going into a large electrical storm they did not say anything about technical problems.
June 17

A bit overdone, and oh how it always tend to head for Florida.

Quoting Weather456:
June 17

A bit overdone



Let's hope so.
Quoting StormW:


MJO is short for Madden Julian Oscillation. I will be posting a link to it under my reecommended links section later today.


Hey StormW, will you be posting your season outlook today sir, buddy, pal?
Quoting Weather456:
June 17

A bit overdone



You just trying to give Pat a heart attack right?
Quoting Orcasystems:


You just trying to give Pat a heart attack right?


lol....
i believe it is more likely this western carib. disturbance develops than the storm that developed near the cape verdes early last summer
Quoting Orcasystems:


You just trying to give Pat a heart attack right?
he's makin me a little squeemish with that too Orca...

the Miss. River is very high and will be on the 17th...I need a Rolaids and it's just the first day of the season.
Alright.. what am I missing... all of the models I have looked at show nothing... zilch. The closest thing I can find of even a sniff of something starting is the southwestern Caribbean?
Quoting StormFreakyisher:
Wow hurricane season really is starting but still my guesstimate is June 19th for a storm to form.Sadly EPAC is more silent than us.


Typically when the EPAC is silent the Atlantic is not.
Quoting IKE:
Full blown cane at 384 hours on the 6Z GFS....



I can say that scenerio w/not play out...remember 90L was supposed to form in the same area,according to the long range models...instead it formed near SE cuba and dissapted....never trust any model that far out,96-120hrs max,and that just gives us a ruff idea where a TC may form,IMO
986. IKE
Quoting stillwaiting:


I can say that scenerio w/not play out...remember 90L was supposed to form in the same area,according to the long range models...instead it formed near SE cuba and dissapted....never trust any model that far out,96-120hrs max,and that just gives us a ruff idea where a TC may form,IMO


I was waiting for someone to say that.

I thought about posting a statement saying the same thing***you shouldn't trust any model beyond X amount of hours***, but decided to wait.
987. IKE
stillwaiting....90L dissipated?

After reading your post again...okay, 90L that was east/SE of Florida did and then reformed in the eastern GOM.
Quoting Weather456:
June 17

A bit overdone, and oh how it always tend to head for Florida.



It's only because we stick out so much, they ALWAYS look like they are comming for us :) The NHC usually has it right on the money once they get a weeks worth of data....so I follow them!
New Blog
990. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting stillwaiting:


I can say that scenerio w/not play out...remember 90L was supposed to form in the same area,according to the long range models...instead it formed near SE cuba and dissapted....never trust any model that far out,96-120hrs max,and that just gives us a ruff idea where a TC may form,IMO



Model support was Non-existent early on with 90L. At least a few of the majors are on board with this area which should lend it some credence. Not to the strength but the fact that there is a good possibility of a formidable entity in that area at that time.
992. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
A well-define tropcial wave along an anomalously south ITCZ.



This could be the disturbance responsible for the Air France plane malfunction