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El Niño is coming!

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2006

An El Niño is on the way, according to the latest El Niño discussion posted September 7 by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. A steady warming of the waters in the Equatorial Pacific near the coast of South America, combined with stronger than usual westerly winds over the Equatorial Pacific, point toward the emergence of a weak El Niño episode beginning in October or November. Certainly the above-normal hurricane activity in the Eastern Pacific and the appearance of record-breaking Hurricane Ioke in the Central Pacific were signs of a coming El Niño; intense hurricanes in those regions are highly correlated with the above normal ocean temperatures of a developing El Niño event. When the Equatorial Eastern Pacific waters warm to above 0.5ºC above normal for three consecutive months, an official El Niño is at hand. The ocean temperatures in this region are already at that level, and forecast to increase further over the next few months. An El Niño event can have far-reaching effects on global climate and Atlantic hurricane season activity.


Figure 1. Departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from normal for September 2006 (top) and May 2006 (bottom). Note the departure of SST from normal affecting the Equatorial Eastern Pacific waters. In May, these waters were much cooler than normal, thanks to the lingering effects of the La Niña episode that ended in May. Now in September, these water have warmed dramatically, and may signal the beginning of an El Niño episode.

El Niño and climate change
A trend to El Niño at this time of year is unusual; May or June are the typical months that El Niño starts to develop. While the Climate Prediction Center expects that this will be a weak El Niño, the unusual timing of this event puts us in relatively uncharted territory. Since 1950, only one El Niño has started in the Fall, the El Niño of 1968. This event was an average El Niño, with a peak SST warming in the East Pacific of 1.0º C. For comparison, the warming was 2.3-2.5º C in the record El Niño events of 1997-98 and 1982-83. The unusual timing of the 2006 El Niño event comes on the heels of the unusual timing of the La Niña event that ended in May. The 2006 La Niña started very late--no La Niña of similar magnitude had ever formed in the middle of winter, as this one did. One may legitimately ask if these events might be linked to human-caused climate change. I am concerned that this might be the case, but we don't have a long enough record of historical El Niño events to know. Up until 1975, La Niña events and El Niño events used to alternate fairly regularly with a period of 2-7 years. Between 1950 and 1976 there were seven El Niño events and seven La Niña events. Since 1976, El Niño events have been approximately twice as frequent as La Niña events, with ten El Niño events and only six La Niñas. Some researchers have speculated that this is due to the effects of global warming causing a new "resonance" in the climate system. If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Niño events greatly reduces the number and intensity of these storms.

Effect of El Niño on hurricane season
As most of you know, El Niño conditions put a major damper on both the number and intensity of Atlantic tropical cyclones. This is primarily due to increased wind shear. The upper air winds that develop when one heats the Equatorial Eastern Pacific waters tend to blow from west to east over the Atlantic at high speed. Since the tropical Atlantic trade winds near the surface typically blow the opposite direction, this creates a lot of shear that makes it difficult for a tropical cyclone to survive. Thus far in September, wind shear over the tropical Atlantic has been about normal, so there is no sign that a developing El Niño is suppressing hurricane activity yet. However, if the Climate Prediction Center is right, we can expect an earlier than usual end to hurricane season in the Atlantic, and a quiet November and December--unlike last year! El Niños can be long lived, and if the forecast El Niño for this year develops as expected, it will probably last through the hurricane season of 2007, suppressing hurricane activity next year.

Effect of El Niño on the coming winter
In the U.S., El Niño winters typically have above average rainfall across the southern tier of states, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico and California coasts. Temperatures tend to be warmer than average across the northern tier of states. Temperatures are typically cooler across the southern tier of states, due to increased cloud cover. For more info on El Niño's typical wintertime effects, see the Wikipedia El Niño page or the Climate Prediction Center winter precipitation and temperature impacts page.

Florence
I can basically repeat my blog for the past four days on Florence. Florence is a huge but disorganized tropical storm. Despite the fact that wind shear has decreased to 5-10 knots, Florence shows little sign of intensification. QuikSCAT data from this morning at 5:02am showed top winds of about 45 mph in some widely scattered pockets to the north of the center. There is still some dry air for the storm to contend with, but SSTs are a very warm 29º C and the models are still insisting the storm should intensify. It is a mystery why the tropical atmosphere has been so resistant to tropical cyclone intensification this year. It's a happy mystery for Bermuda, which figures to have a very close encounter with the core of the storm on Monday. Given Florence's continued refusal to intensify despite our expectations, I'd be surprised if the storm affected Bermuda as anything stronger than a Category 1 hurricane. Newfoundland also needs to keep an eye on Florence; some of the models are predicting she could brush that island later next week. The Hurricane Hunters are due to fly their first mission into Florence at 2am EDT Saturday.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are no other threat areas to discuss. The stationary front off the Carolina coast may spawn another low pressure system that will try to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days, but any storm here will move quickly northeast out to sea and not affect North Carolina. The long-range GFS is predicting that two more tropical storms may develop off the coast of Africa over the next two weeks, but any storms that develop here are likely to recurve out to sea and never affect land.

My next update will be Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

see u guys later - time to feed the animals and do other everyday stuf
Tropical storm florence is nearing hurricane strength and approaching Bermuda. Read more on the 8:30 AM

Hurricane Warning Florence Analysis
seminole....You can put me in this category please.

On the other hand some didn't

Morning by the way.....Morning Crab!
Hey Rand-So I'm guessing the HHs didn't find winds to support the high T-numbs, huh?
If y'all haven't don it yet you might find Randy's blog interesting this morning. He was on last night's flight.
Posted By: Randrewl at 12:34 PM GMT on September 09, 2006.
seminole....You can put me in this category please.

On the other hand some didn't


I think you know my tent was pitched in that campground, too!!!!
Morning all!
Watch out turtle....May see "When Bob Attacks" with the links :) JK!

Anywho, that misunderstanding of the center is not good for Bermuda. Puts them in the worst part of the storm.. Hopefully it won't make it to the Cat 2 strength they are suggesting.

Go Cocks! (SEC football)
seminolesfan...Nope...T numbers were not reality in the overall system. Recon is the only way to know. Now we will have their data till Florence passes Bermuda. No more center guessing!
Good morning all.

I have a Baby Shower to attend this morning, but I had a question about Flo.....where/when does the NHC expect the turn to occur? Is the trough weakening? It doesn't look as impressive as it did last night.

One more thing, there's a nice looking blob off the coast of S. Carolina......front related?
2010. ricderr
good morning.....seminole....track....easy..she's going west..northwest..lol.....that's not the question...turn is..and turn she should...what i took from the conversation yesterday afternoon..is how many thought it would be a hurricane at the 5 or 8 advisory....which..seemed unlikely...i think she'll be a cane..but i don't think a strong one..and truth be told..i'll be happier when i see the northward turn
....May see "When Bob Attacks" with the links :) JK!

You stirring things up already SJ? lol
2012. ricderr
morning 27..how was the party?
23 teenagers.....15 of them in the pool at any given time, going down the slide 2 at a time.....I put a stop to that.

I think it went very well....they had a good time and enjoyed the dogs.

How are you this morning?
2014. ricderr
sounds like fun....glad to hear it..i'm good...have yard work in front of me.,.but have been wasting the morning hours playing poker
All in good fun Rand :) No harm intended.

Although I would be interested in knowing if you and Lefty have come face to face since the flight...lol
2016. IADCW
Center is 83 miles south of where they thought it was? Does that mean the track was south the whole time? Does that affect the track forecast at all? Is this too many questions? Should I quit asking questions?
good morning!! hope all of you have a wonderful day!
I have that shower in a couple of hours....why at 10:00am, I do not know...who the hell wants to eat cake at 10 in the morning?

Good morning Ally
you and Lefty have come face to face since the flight...lol

After I posted the decoded Vortex message I never saw him again. He always does that...lol!
Rand-You and I both realize the limitations of remote sensing, not to mention the Dvorak technique itself. Absolutely nothing can replace real physical data. If the plane wasn't already in the air last night I might have put up more of a fight. However, I realized those putting their eggs in the T-numb basket, would prob. find out before I did that they were incorrect.

Alright all, I'm gonna go enjoy some of this beautiful FL sunshine today. (Going Orienteering)

Be back later on tonight!
Good morning SW, thanks for answering my questions..

Good morning Rand and Junkie and I hope I didn't miss anyone.
2024. dewfree
the eye wall looks as if it is shrinking and getting more ogganized for a ramp up in speed . north carolina outer banks is still as i have said so many times threatened by this storm . even if it doesnt flo is getting too close for the comfort and needs to be watched like a hawk.as flo approaches the boundary ahead of it i believe she will shrink abit as she speeds up her winds . north carolina all the way to maine is threatened at this point by flo . no one i mean no one should shrug their shoulders and say flow want land cause she certainly has the size and is getting the speed needed to do just that . have a good day
IAD, it likely means that they never had a good idea of wher ethe center was and the whole previous track is likely not accurate. It is still moving WNW to NW though. As far as the steering, it would take a lot more then 83 miles to make a difference in the type of track it will take, basically it will still turn N then NE. What the shift did was put Bermuda on the storm surge side of the storm, and the higher wind side of the storm...for now atleast.
Have fun Seminole!
lol - 27! i agree with you on the early morning baby shower..but i can eat cake anytime! lol
ihave27windows...Good morning.......Just put some chips on that cake.
He really is a good guy Rand, just a little over the top sometimes. He is also right many times, but he does not care for his crow too much when he is not...lol
morning 27 windows, come on down here and walk outside I can give you a free shower.lol
Good Morning, In this image you can see that the center of Florence is within the well define CDO, with great outflow/upper air divergnce (suggesting that and upper anituclone has form over Florence) seen in the Western Semicicrcle. Banding is evident is most quadrants. I will have an update in the next hr.

*shivers* Chips on cake......I do have my limits Rand.....Now, if there's chicken salad....Oh Yeah!
Posted By: ricderr at 12:38 PM GMT on September 09, 2006.
good morning.....seminole....track....easy..she's going west..northwest..lol.....that's not the question...turn is..and turn she should...what i took from the conversation yesterday afternoon..is how many thought it would be a hurricane at the 5 or 8 advisory....which..seemed unlikely...i think she'll be a cane..but i don't think a strong one..and truth be told..i'll be happier when i see the northward turn


ric-I agree on all 5 points!!!
(1,WNW;2,the turn;3,will be a cane at some point;4,not a major;5,happier once it turns)
StormJunkie...Oh yeah.....I always have fun with him!
In This image, an eye like feature is forming...

Morning 27, and Ally!
Good morning sandcrab....just what kinda shower are you talking about?....scared to ask.
thanx rand!
Morning Ally...Crab.
Now 27 I am a nice person.lol "Rain Shower" stopped me from fishing.lol
Morning Rand.
I'd love to stay, and I will likely be here later, but my hair dryer is calling me.

Bye all, have fun, don't fight.
good morning StormJunkie!

StormW - sardines yuck!!
good morning Randrewl!!


bye 27 - have fun and see ya' later!
It intensified pretty good early this am with the diurnal max then backed off. It looks now to be strengthening again somewhat i.e. the convection is shrinking towards the center and the outflow is improving. I think it will have enough time to be a strong cat 1 before it gets shredded. Probably go through the same cycle with tonights diurnal to its max then make the turn. JMO
2049. Zaphod
Morning all!

So Flo's not a cane yet, but getting close.....looks like she might scoot barely west of Bermude?

Any models for 93L yet? Any more thoughts on the 10N46W blob?
Zap




looks like its getting an eyewall
2051. IADCW
Lets see - chocolate cake with sardines and Ice cream. UUuummmm. That sounds good.
StormW i know of people who do eat sardines at breakfast! lol
Morning Storm. Sorry if I missed someone....morning Zap!
Observation! If I remember right, a few days ago this one had no chance to go into Bermuda! Now Bermuda seems to be a target on the new track! What is going to happen a few more days from now? New York?
Morning kill good to see you.

So how about the area off the Carolina coast, any chance it makes TD?
The trough is not as srong today as it was 2 days ago, so the it would be up to mostly the High take this north.
I know the storm did not really move SW last night but i do have a question about the tract.
I am looking at the Northwest Atlantic - AVN Color Infrared Loop (link below) with the forecast positions and fronts super-imposed. It shows a low pressure on the front that is north of Flo. My question is if the storm does not make a drastic turn to the north soon couldn't it get left of the low and trapped below the front in stead of following the front up and out to sea?
Link
2060. Zaphod
So, despite Flo's proximity to the coast, the strong trough should create a shield for the east coast, and I can see no reasonable way for Flo to break through it. Are most all in agreement with this?

Assuming the trough holds, the same will be true for 93L. If it doesn't, the situation may differ, and 93L could scoot underneath. However, given its lattitude and the pattern we're seeing, this seems very unlikely.

The 10N blob is interesting, as if it survives it would be along Ernie's track, and could potentially scoot as far as the Yucatan before recurving, depending on waves and steering currents? It's not far enough N to get much help from the Earth's rotation, but has a bit of spin anyway. It is heading toward a pocket of very warm water, but may not have enough organization to much take advantage of it.

The other possibility is that 10N heads over S.A. and simply dies, or blows across barely N of it and just creates continual convection but never spins up.

Any differing views?
Thanks,
Zap
Very little chance of that Sea, the track has been in the general area of Bermuda for quite some time now if my memory serves me correctly.

Sardines and saltines with a little mayo....Not for breakfast though, more of a night time snack! I think I started eating them just cause I wanted to be like pops:) Ended up liking them over time.
Good morning weathernauts!

hope all is well with everyone.

hey 27, what kind of cake?

anybody got any thoughts on the new blobs in the itcz?
Morning SJ
I think the thing off our coast will be extra tropical like the last. Diamond Shoals buoy is showing swell. ACOE Duck Pier has 2' swell from the SE now and it was from the NE so I think we are starting to see the first sign of Flo on the OBX
2064. IKE
Keep an eye out in the western Caribbean...MM5FSU model spins up a system over the Yucatan in 5 days. CMC shows a system in the eastern GOM in 5 to 6 days.

Might be something to it. Clouds are gathering in the western Caribbean.

Flo looks impressive this morning.

Sardines for breakfast...ugh.......
well, no sardines here - where's the beef!
2068. Zaphod
Nice bit of convection there by the Carolina's,
too.
Zap
Well, my plan of the day is to keep an eye on the trough to Flo's West. I don't want any surprises. Like 456 said...it is weaker now and I hope I see no fracturing. That could get weird!
No sardines in my POD either. At least not till I have some beer later maybe.
morning IKE,

thanks for that observation, uh.. is it just my breakfastless vision or is there some rotatation happening to the SE of grand cayman?
2072. Patrap
..Atlantis locked & loaded..ready for another attempt this morning....
Regarding Dr. Masters' comments that El Nino is coming, I am hoping for a good winter ski season in Northern New Mexico. Having lived in this area for over 30 years, it has been my very unscientific observation that the stronger the El Nino is, the further south the above average precipitation over the southern tier of United States is pushed. In Northern New Mexico an average El Nino is better for winter precipitation than a very strong El Nino. In a strong El Nino the band of above average precipitation is pushed further south towards Old Mexico. Does anyone know if any studies show that this correlation exists? Thanks!
Morning Cayman and SW.

Alright, I am off for a while. Get packed up for my trip to Columbia today! Go Cocks!

Easily find the latest forecast models, imagery, marine data, preparedness info, and much more...StormJunkie.com. Your links to the best weather on the web!

StormW - beer at 2:30 when game comes on!
Who do y'all have today Bama?
Have fun StormJunkie! ROllTIDE!!
First rain bands have crossed over bermuda

Radar
This kind of stuff is not what I want to see today. This is Florence's tracks.


were at home against Vandy.
2082. wxgssr
Kill Devil Max....

I will be on the OBX Tues....until the swell backs down and out...probably Thursday.

Flying into BWI tomorow just b4 noon...will make a run for OC, MD Sun pm or real early am Monday, then back to DC for the Skins' game.

Heading for OBX real early Tuesday.... should be real good...if the winds back down. Cool thing about the OBX, if its N or NE winds, you can hit S side of the point...Frisco or whereever. I think Wednesday will be epic...NE swell and less wind.
2083. IKE
Posted By: caymanguy at 8:17 AM CDT on September 09, 2006.

morning IKE,

thanks for that observation, uh.. is it just my breakfastless vision or is there some rotatation happening to the SE of grand cayman?


Might be...pressures are rather low where you're at...seems like they almost always are though. Keep an eye on it...several models hint at something close by in a few days.
2084. Patrap
..Cayman system is a remnant wave that has become somewhat energised last 12hrs..with no impediments to organazation..this is the entity the FSU is developing in a few days over the Yucatan
Randrewl, i didn't see models yesterday, so by your comment i guess there is some west shifting going on?
2086. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 8:22 AM CDT on September 09, 2006.

This kind of stuff is not what I want to see today. This is Florence's tracks.


Uh-oh...not the freaking loop!
Is it just me or are the BAM and A98E trending toward bringing Florence in a loop? Looks like the NOGAPS is also picking up whatever steering current they see, just not as strongly.
2088. Patrap
..doubts seriously that a system of Flos size will be looped..not in the WV imagery.
AllyBama...Some of the models are starting a Westward type of loop!
Damn IKE....I was afraid this might start today!
Y'all should be able to handle that Ally!

Today's game is huge for us, it should be our only real challenge before we face Auburn in three weeks...
2091. Patrap
..mo likely to wind up xtra as it wanes towards Azores in 4-5 days
2092. IKE
Posted By: Patrap at 8:24 AM CDT on September 09, 2006.

..Cayman system is a remnant wave that has become somewhat energised last 12hrs..with no impediments to organazation..this is the entity the FSU is developing in a few days over the Yucatan


Think it's the former 99L.
Eastward type of loop....sorry all...only one cup of coffee!
2094. IADCW
Randrewl - 4 model tracks show Flo looping - Or those reliable models. Or should I say, or those tracks as possible as the others?
2096. Patrap
...to see a real loop..invest Betsy..in 1965..long lived CAt 3..that looped in Atlantic..clipped the Southern end of Fla..then impacted Louisiana..2 days later as CAt 3.
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
800 AM AST SAT SEP 09 2006

...FLORENCE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST OR ABOUT 550
MILES...885 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FLORENCE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND
BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...24.4 N...63.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
Actually Ally, what they are showing is a sharper E turn and then a SE or ESE turn...The Loop scenario, where it sits out there for days on end and tthen all bets are off, although the next trough would likely pick it up even if it did pull a loop.
2099. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 8:28 AM CDT on September 09, 2006.

Gotta sign off for now gang.
Hers is fuel for thought...once Florence is gone, and the trof clears out, there should be a ridge building. May I suggest an eye on the Bahamas/Caribbean later on...as pressure heights build to the north, they should fall down around those areas. Just a thought.


A ridge is forecast to build...I've read about it in the morning discussions.
IADCW...Usually once this starts it is a warning sign. I'll be keeping both eyes on this situation today. We don't want to see this happen. It is always a possibility. Florence dragged along a bit too slow in the early forecast period so this loop stuff then becomes something to watch for.
doggone it! it sure is tuff living with plywood on my windows!LOL well, it wont come down for some time i guess!

thanks everyone!

keeping an eye out!

umm... i wonder if Flos rudder is stuck?

she looks ornery this morning!
I remembers "Betsy" nasty lil lady had a real weird eye in the night glowed hot pink.
well a more recent example of the dreaded loop is Jeanne!
nice outflow with Flo!
SJ - we should...but even in some of Vandy's worse yrs they have played us and TN tough!
wsgssr
I'm onboard with that. Where is BWI? My son in law just got out of the water in Hatteras, its getting better, Diamond Shoals bouy is showing swell. I'm loading up to head south right now. I'll email you so we can cross paths. Go to obxsurfinfo.com I took a pic thats on there (look close)from my Pea Is spot. good site for here.
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ABOUT 900 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. DESPITE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ADISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
Randrewl- lol! i thought there was something wrong with me!
Morning Gulf.
2112. IKE
Posted By: StormW at 8:34 AM CDT on September 09, 2006.

Hey IKE,
Thanks man!...Will have to watch down that way then.


Yo bud....have a nice day.
Good Morning
AllyBama...I don't have my East and West sorted out yet this morning...LOL
I couldn't see Flo making a loop. When and if it turns north it will move up the old front and out to sea. Do you think models showing the sharp turn back to east and possible loop might be really doubting the turn to the north.
Good morning to all who just arrived! I can't keep up.
Morning Pascagoula
tks SJ and Randrewl!
2120. wxgssr
Nogaps(09/00z) (and the other dynamical models although I have looked at them as closely) is going for extra tropical transition....the only models going for the sharp right turn to the E (so far) are the objective aids, the BAMs, LBAR, etc. As Irecall off the top of my head...the obj's were going far more west in earlier runs...they seem to be windshield wipering. Definitely something to watch...and to see if the Dynamic runs start to shift.

All very interesting.

One thing is certain though....East Coast is gonna get rocked by the swell....Puerto Rico gonna get it twice...starting now with the initial swell...and then late in the week as the back side N swell comes at them again.
Hey sandcrab, I thought you were going fishing this morning. The tides stink this morning.
Good morning Gulf! is it cloudy on your side of the bay?
Morning all.As expected Flo continues to oraganize. Should be hurricane by tonight. She appears to be on track for the short term forecast. As had been discussed the models are not in as good agreement long term. Still a lot of variables with highs and troughs to consider. I think a complete loop back to the US is unlikely.
Hookem Horns.
Just waking up and see she is still WNW track and nearing 65W. NHC track showed that 65W would be the furthest she'll go. Also notice the BAMM models taking a loop, wonder if models will follow.

t
I have updated my Blog on Florence:

Tropical Storm Florence Becoming Better Organized
2126. wxgssr
KIll Devil max....

BWI is Balt Wash airport

Keep us psoted re the surf...thanks for the OBX site, too.

Leaving house early am tomorrow for MSY (New Orleans airport.

Are you talking about emailing me in Weather Underground???
The tides are bad and the Sound has Thunder bumpers this am.
lastest gfs vortex shows flo being left behind and stalling or looping back east.http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_500_vrt&loop=1
2129. ricderr
anyone want to explain why i should find those models amusing?
wxgssr
Roger that, you have mail @ WU
Florence continues to display organization:

ricderr...Right on it ric. I find this hilarious! I was looking for this yesterday before posting my forecast...and now today...LMAO!!!
Guys Florence is to 60knots:

06LFLORENCE.60kts-992mb-244N-633W.100pc.jpg
good morning all

I have been away for a few days down in Barbados where the weather was picture perfect and the Caribbean was flat as a mill pond !
Unfortunately it was all business so did not even get a chance to hit the beach :-(

How's Flo ??

Looks like after struggling for what seemed like forever it is now getting organised.

The rest of the ATL looks like Oct. I suspect the real threat, if any, this season will be from tail-end lows on fronts pushing into the Caribbean from the GOM.There have been some ferocious systems developing from these in past years.
...let's just hope it's an anomaly

Hope so also. I don't want to see any more straying here today. Might have to go in there and round em up!
2137. wxgssr
I'm thinking that the objective aids are over dramatizing the turn to the N and NE. They keep right on going instead of figuring out that she will extend NE rather than keep turning to the E and SE. In essence, they are saying very loudly "She is Going to Turn!!!!!"
Hmm models showing a possible loop de loop?
2139. ricderr
so remember....no joking today....no saarcastic posts..because..it might be you or i..that needs to come in here..and get info...and would have to scroll through off topic posts...becasue..the nhc..and noaa...well...why go to their sites
Well, the 65,000 residents of Bermuda would be happy to see all the models shift.
According to the navy Florence winds are 70mph
...well...why go to their sites

Yeah, who would really want "Official" information?
2143. ricderr
very true...have no clue how bermuds can sit there..and be in the traffic pattern so often..and still mange to miss most
Weather456...Right...last night the T's had it around 80mph. Recon did not find that. What's your point?
2145. caneman
I haven't updated my blog.
why the hell if flo moving west?? if it continues this could make the affects to canada much worse
omg don't tell me this is going to do a jeanne
:(
2149. wxgssr
Ok...how do I check for WU email???

Muchas....
Looks like Flo is beginning a turn to the N based on the last to floater frames.
omg don't tell me this is going to do a jeanne

OK...I'm not saying that.
Looks like it may be starting a gradual turn now. Don't panic stay calm maybe apply something to forehead
yes Gulf we definitely need the rain..we sure won't win the Wettest U.S. City award this year! lol
ugh on the chores are going shopping in rain! :)
Roman,

No need to panic yet. The BAMM is not very good on deep systems like Flo is becomming.
lol..... head on apply directly to the forehead........... well that would be so ridiculous if it did a jeanne....
Scroll up to mailbox in purple on left (if you have a paid subscrip that is otherwise no mail). I sent one out the other day and it didn't work hmmmm.
Those models that recurve the obvious soon to be hurricane florence. Are they crap or is that a possibility.

the atlantic here is calm but with very defined lines of waves coming in. love it when it's like that.
here is a web cam from Bermuda
Link it updates every 2 minutes
That's what I said about Jeanne!
haha... My forcast stands.
HR, it did not really move W, or SW, the finally found the center....See Here...Randy found the center last night...

As for the BAM models, they don't seem to do well late in the forecast period, but for general directions in the short term, they seem to do pretty good. Therefore it seems unlikely that she will actually loop. Now if some of the dynamical models start buying in to it then the theory may desreve some respect....
What's with those models calling for a loop? Is there any credence in that?
Tropicallydepressed,

They are not crap, they seem to work better with TD or TS.
2164. IADCW
hellsniper

What is your forecast ??
i guess Jeanne wasnt done with terrorizing people
tropicallydepressed...This is either an anomaly or we may see some of the others following along. Too early to tell. Every thing could just shift back too. Just something to watch today.
that Bermuda Web Cam is about to get interisting to look at, not for Bermudians
S. FL.
hellsniper said South Florida and GOM
Are the different steering layers factored together to produce a mean steering mechanism? Is this mitigated by coriolis effect? Is there a predominent steering layer based on hieght? Intensity? Is Santa real?
2171. wxgssr
Kill Devil Max

I am not a paid subscriber on WU...

pls send it to wxgssr39525@hotmail.com

Thanks!
I find the GFDL and GFS to be most reliable for large storm like Flo. My concern for Bermuda is the size of Flo versus the strength. This is a big storm. I wish the NHC would somehow add the size and speed when forecasting impact. Ivan was a slow big storm that flooded my home and lasted 18 hours. Dennis was smaller but stronger (closer) and moving at close to 20 MPH. It only lasted four hours. I had no flooding from it.
I'm interested to see if Dr. M even mentions this spread in the models.
OT: Space shuttle to take off in little over a hour
Pay and the pop ups go away wx....Plus you get 40 frame radar loops! Definatley worth it IMHO.
Hope Dr Master's starts a new thread soon I should be post 2000...

Ms Flo is looking pretty good on radar right now.
I hope the winds do not knock the web cam over
Stormjunkie, I agree with your assesment.
thanks rand and gnshdgteshdude. any idea when the next mods are due out? it would be interseting to see if the others follow them or discount that path.
wxgssr
Copy that. Will send from personal email.- 5 min.
Ok even if it doesn't do a loop... the models that show it doing that, we can't just forget about models even if its just one there something that is making it do that...... We just need to wait for the next model runs
good morning Kman,

hope your trip was nice.

any thoughts on the convection rotating to our SE?
tropicallydepressed...Check back around 2pm. OK?
Only 5 bucks a year!
2186. wxgssr
Ok SJ....but my pu blocker slams the PUs...
consider this... Everyone was Absolutely positive this was a fishy storm... The models were in perfect agreement... Everything seemed right. And now that there is a little variation in the models, some of you think its going to pull a jeanne...

Models are pro'lly only good for about 24hrs out... Pay NO attention to The BAMMS and A98E.

Just sit and wait.
No EastCoast, they finally found the center. No shift! They just did not have the center in the right place. Once the hunters flew in they found it. As for the loop, I give it about a 7% chance. To me it looks like she is going to make it around the edge of the high, then with the high to her S it would be very unlikely she loop.
now i cant watch CNN without this:

FROM THE MAKERS OF HEAD ON, ACTIVE ON, APPLY DIRECTLY WHERE IT HURTS!!
Everyone was Absolutely positive

Everyone? Pretty broad statement.
Well, you get the point Randrewl
i still don't think its likely for her to do a loop... its just interesting to now see the models change.... I wonder if the other models will follow
will do, thanks rand.
wx, yes but your Pop blocker also uses bandwidth and system resources.

The radar loop alone is worth it.....

And are the WU ads actually pop up, or are they just on the sidebars and what not?
Hmmm... some good stuff coming off Africa now......
HR, I would expect to see a slight shift to the right later in the forecast period for the dynamical models, but nothing like the BAM model show.
2197. wxgssr
Ok SJ...sounds good
2198. IADCW
Follow the crowd mentallity - Kinda like the stock market- follow the crowd and lose your shirt. The contrarian view is usually the right view. Especially after a long, strong run.
Hello, everyone. My first time posting here and certainly no expert but it should be noted that the A98E model takes into consideration past storms from the same area. In this case I'm assuming Jeanne was a part of that equation as well as others. The BAMM et al will take into account the earths rotation as well as the normal modeling components.
i still think the curve is gonna happen....but ive been doing my own tracking and forcasting and i dont think shell be going north till shes around 68-70w... ive been thinking that for the last 2 days...although i did see her moving more nw by now...hmm

track
Florance is right on course. They better hurry up and launch the shuttle because the clouds are building quick. Yesterday would of been perfect. Have a nice day.
I love how everyone thinks they know better than the forecast models. Next thing you know, this storm will be doing loop-de-loops.
Sorry wx, did not mean to sound like I was hawking crack :)....lol
Posted By: aguacane at 2:24 PM GMT on September 09, 2006.

I love how everyone thinks they know better than the forecast models. Next thing you know, this storm will be doing loop-de-loops.


Your guess is as good as the models guess. lol.
Tropical Storm Florence:

wxgssr
Check your mail and respond if you got it. I'm outa here to get wet. Later
2207. IKE
Looks like Florence is turning more to the northwest in the last couple of frames...aiming at Bermuda.....
weather456 - tks for pic!
Hmm.. At this rate It'll have an eye soon. Nifty.
Florence is looking good, not for the Bermudians

dang...there goes my travel plans to bermuda
IKE that's what the NHC said yesterday, then it turned out I was right and she had moved south and started moving west-northwest.
look closelly in the center and you will see loser cloud tops and on Infered their is almost a compleat circle of Black in the same place
Cloudy Skies in Bermuda:

i dont think i will be able to watch the shuttle lift from my house, rain clouds to the north
The trough is sinking further South than expected above the forecast track of Florence. This is what the models are starting to pick up on. Flo dragged along too slow. Will be interesting today to see where the models end up.
dead space just ahead of flo will stall and be cut off and just left behind
AllyBama, anytime
It didnt MOVE south, the recon found it to be a lil further south, but it doesnt matter cause its still gonna go out to sea!
gulf u cant be talking about flo? thats the same storm u predicted to disintegrate 2 days ago. got some kellogs crow puffs here for ya
ya i do remember when some of you were predicting it to die, but forecast change like the NHC
Repeating the 1100 am ast position, 24.7 n, 63.7 w. Movement toward, northwest
near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 70 mph. Minimum central pressure, 992 mb.

2 mb, and 4 MPH away from a hurricane
Florence is up to 70mph

...FLORENCE CONTINUING TO SHOW SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...24.7 N...63.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB.

up to 100 by tonight....lol...imo
IN ADDITION...LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING STRONG RIP CURRENTS...ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA...AS
WELL AS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...HISPANIOLA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES FOR DETAILS ON COASTAL CONDITIONS.
Guys did you read this

SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...
AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A
HURRICANE.

we could alredy have a cat 2 on our hands

why did they update to soon they shold have waited till 11 then issued so thet they could get a new satalite pass and then determin if it is a Hurricane
if i were the NHC i would wait for an high to form before i upgrade it, or if its 18 hours from Bermuda
2232. WxCafe
Wow... big improvement on satellite imagery overnight... she's gotten way more compact!

WxCafe
Swell is coming. 120 mile buoy is pinging a 12 sec. swell at 4 ft. Six more hrs it should be on the beaches.
when is the dr updating the blog? hes running kinda late this morning
Thunder - doubt it right now, as she has no eye feature. Once an eye feature begins to become evident, then I'll believe she could be a Category 2, but right now she probably is a Category 1.
high-eye
I have updated my discussion to include info from the 11am advisory......
high not eye for my post
2240. wxgssr
No worries SJ....I feel like a cheap ass now...LOL

Kill Devil max...got it...responded....you will probably get it when you get back...
fisherman - He was probably just waitining for the 11 am advisory. If he posted it earlier, he wouldn't be able to include the latest information (70mph winds, 992mb pressure).
Florence in the wide Atlantic:

Think your right Kyle 100mph eye should show up on visiable..
why does the xtrp (black triangles) computer model in the pic that katrina has take the storm straight all through each update the models does ?
is gulfscotsman still holding on fervently to his dissipation forecast? Or is he he eating crow haggis?
i think by 2 PM we should see an eye, we saw this morning that an eye wall was forming, and all by 2 PM it should be a cane, the Space Shuttle will get a good view of the storm in space
i think the extrap is just that. an extrapolation of the current track.
waccamaw16...thats not an model, it shows the general direction of the storm
2250. IADCW
Waccamaw - I know nothing of weather and Im guessing 'Xtrp' is extrapolation of cureent track
2251. will40
Posted By: waccamaw16 at 10:46 AM EDT on September 09, 2006.

why does the xtrp (black triangles) computer model in the pic that katrina has take the storm straight all through each update the models does ? xtrap is not a model it is actual direction the storm is moving at present time
Better hurry on the shuttle. The clouds are developing.
2253. wxgssr
Leftovers...which bouy??? off what part of the coast?
WPBH...how cool is that? being an astronaut and seeing a storm from space. lucky bastards.
leftovers...clouds to the north are going to block my view of the shuttle :(
hes still saying shes gonna get ripped apart by dry air...lol
120mile buoy off cape canaveral daytona!
tropicallydepressed, my backround on my computer is Wilma taken from the International Space Station
Look iffy on the shuttle.
2261. HCW
93L could be a real player has it gets further west than florence

A Small Area Of Low Pressure Is Located About 900 Miles
East-northeast Of The Lesser Antilles And About 900 Miles
East-southeast Of Tropical Storm Florence. Despite Strong
Upper-level Winds...this System Continues To Produce Adisorganized
Showers And Thunderstorms. Upper-level Winds Could Become
Marginally Conducive For Some Development Of This System During The
Next Day Or So.

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through
Sunday.


HARDCOREWEATHER.COM

Link
2262. wxgssr
You guys are loving it...Enjoy...tomorrow am...be on it...keep us posted on how it is
2263. wadcane
Is there any potential for the wave at 45W 10N for developemnt???
less than 20 minutes for the launch, clouds are starting to break off to my north, i might be able to see it
hey guys back from a long break.
ill tell you something, i was a bit sceptical and didnt think flo had it in her, but shes doing it and bermudians better buckle up cause they could be in for a hell of a ride.
thanks everyone for the info . i just seen it on the computer models page and was just wondering about it .
hello everyone
2268. wxgssr
Stewart will issue a "breaking news" hurricane upgrade message when the recon gets in and confirms.
i still remember watching the cloud of smoke outside when the challenger exploded
Who will be carrying the launch live so I can watch it?
2271. pcshell
hello everyone when are we expecting the info from the next recon
Wp I saw the pieces fall into the ocean. 6th floor condo in Cocoa B.
CNN, and FOX
leftovers, i was at my house (West Palm) so all i saw was some smoke in the sky
yuck, a T-Storm might be blocking my view
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 09 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-102

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 10/1800,11/0000Z A. 11/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 0506A FLORENCE
C. 10/1445Z C. 11/0210Z
D. 28.6N 65.9W D. 30.6N 65.87W
E. 10/1700Z TO 11/0000Z E. 11/0530Z TO 11/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 72 G. TEAL 73
Unfortunately, I've got some cumulous clouds to my SSE where I usually can see the launch. Hopefully I'll have a LOS between them.
Link

Shuttle launch
Weather looks marginal to me. Building clouds with dark spots on the bottom of them.
its a dud, no view for me i got a T-Storm growing by the second, but can still watch it on TV
CSPAN is showing NASA TV
WOW I HAVE NEVER SEEN A THUNDER STORM GROW SO FAST!!!

the weatherman said it was going to be sunny too!!
here we go!!
Dont have to worry about clouds no more.
Shaken the windows good.
Shaken over little door shaken too. Have a nice day everyone.
I had a nice view of the launch. No clouds and clear shot!
I caught a break! Shuttle passed right up through a slot between two clouds and I got a great view!
i just heard thunder, they bearley made it
Happily and luckily Flo will most likely not make it to shore. It is a big storm though. WE may never forget the terror of '05 or the miracle of '06.
my view sucked
2293. melly
Randrewl.Good shot in betwwen clouds here in Palm Beach county
They've issued hurricane warnings (marine warning I believe):

AMZ080-091530-
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
430 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006


HURRICANE WARNING N OF 25N E OF 67W

HURRICANE CONDITION EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF 67W

TODAY AND TONIGHT
N OF 23N E OF 70W TROPICAL STORM WINDS
WITHIN 300 NM OF FLORENCE...WITH HIGHEST WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65
KT. N OF 25N E OF 67W WINDS 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND
75 KT GUSTS 90 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 250 NM W
OF CENTER WITH HIGHEST SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 30 FT TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE N OF 23N E OF 71W NE WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT. N OF 27N BETWEEN 71W AND 74W N TO NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT IN E SWELL. N OF 27N
W OF 74W VARIABLE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 23N
E OF 71W NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL
BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N NE
WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL E OF BAHAMAS AND 2
TO 3 FT W OF BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N E OF
70W... INCREASING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SQUALLS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N E OF
67W. ELSEWHERE E OF 73W WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. W OF
73W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS IN E
SWELL...AND 2 TO 4 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS SQUALLS WITHIN
240 NM OF FLORENCE.

MON
N OF 23N E OF 73W NW TO N WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12
FT IN N SWELL. W OF 73W N TO NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9
FT IN NE SWELL E OF BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 28N E OF 75W.

TUE
N OF 29N E OF 75W NW TO N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12
FT IN NLY SWELL. ELSEWHERE N OF 23N NLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL. S OF 23N E OF 75W SW TO W WINDS 10
TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. S OF 23N W OF 75W NE WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

WED
N OF 25N E OF 75W NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT
PRIMARILY IN N SWELL. ELSEWHERE VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS
5 TO 8 FT IN N SWELL E OF BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.

FORECASTER RRG
anything out there other then TS florence...
2296. primez
Looks like Florence will be an annular hurricane.

Or would have been if she wouldn't turn to the northy. I still don't see a northwest movement...
2297. melly
WPB..Are you west??
melly...Good for you. For once I had a spactular view!
Well, this was a relatively short season except for Bermuda. There are too many unidentified factors that influence Gray's predictions and but at least he now knows El Nino is coming before Santa Claus!
lucky you melly, i was hoping like last time when i bearley saw it, but a T-Storm blew up at the last second, nice thunder though
2301. melly
Randrewl.Thunderstorm over Intracoastal, and one west. i could see right in between them
2302. melly
I can hear the thunder WPB
Looked like shuttle took off at the end of my road,lol. Great view from here in Sebastian.
JER
nope im about 1 1/2 miles west of I-95
sebastianjer...I imagine so!
Hello,
How are all you wonderful fellow addicted hurricanes watchers,today?

Is it time to batten down the hatches?
maybe if i have a 3 day weekend when the shuttle takes off i will go up there, about a 2 1/2 hour drive
does Dr. Master have a new blog
2309. melly
And Hurricane Andrew's Rick Sanchez is now on CNN
Morning All,

That is an interesting scenario the BAMM model has worked out,lol.
Beverly - Pretty vigorous wave south of the Cape Verdes, but no circulation associated with it. Also, the biggest threat (other than Florence) is the remnant-91L which is now 93L southeast of Florence. The NHC is saying the environment may become somewhat more favorable for some development in the next couple of days.
2312. pcshell
i could see the shuttle on the west coast for a minute in between clouds also
Recon is flying towards Florence....

Here's the 11:30am on 93L

ABNT20 KNHC 091512
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FLORENCE...LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 820 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Any one who things Florence is going to get choked by dry air today (especially GulfScotsman), think again. Read this segment of the 8:05 tropical weather discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.4N 63.3W AT 09/1200
UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
FLORENCE REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WARM
WATERS...AND LOW SHEAR AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.
THE CENTER OF FLORENCE IS NOW TO THE SE OF THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION OF THIS VERY LARGE SYSTEM. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA FROM 22.5N-28N BETWEEN 59W-65.5W.
WPB,
I wish he would post a new report!
Kinda tired of the El Nino coming :(
I sure wish I would have remembered it was going, would have taken some great pictures but was outside and didn't have camera with me. Oh well next time, nothing like a night take off over the Indian River though, saw one of those once, spectacular. Don't think they are going to do any more night take offs though for filming purposes. They have a new safety protocol so they can take video of tanks and foam and such.
JER
i remember a night take a few years back, those are the best, i could actually see the shuttle, instead of a glow!!
the International Space Station is over the atlantic, tell them to get some pics of Florence!!
This is interesting - the cone of possibility for Florence is a lot larger (and includes the U.S.) in this graphic:

I wonder if Skyponey got some shots, she lives in Melbourne I think.
JER
hi all
fristpost here
i live in mims fl
just watched the shuttle from back yard
i went doen to the jetty park fot the 4th of july one
it's something to see that ckose up
Welcome fatcat
JER




If you have never seen a launch it's worth the trip. One of the greatest sights you'll ever see.
No telling Gulf...
Does anybody know what it means when the UW-CIMSS site says "Weakening Flag: OFF" or "Weakening Flag: ON"?
sebastianjer...I hope she did. Yeah, she's in Melbourne.
Tropical Storm Florence:

how march logger till dr maters blogs

This a few mreo mins.
In the last satellite image, I saw Florence almost shift from moving northwest to west-northwest. Did anybody else see this?

Also, Florence is much too organized to be a tropical storm. She looks like a Category 2-3 hurricane, just without an eye. That's probably what the NHC is waiting for.
2331. WSI
"This is interesting - the cone of possibility for Florence is a lot larger (and includes the U.S.) in this graphic"

It's her size. Look at the wind graphic and wind speed probabilites as well.

On my tropical page I have the same map, but in different colors. Same information though.

If any1 is watching the visible loop.... look on the eastern half of the storm doesn't it look like a whole is forming in the clouds......
kyle,

Did you see the recent microwave passes? The internal structure is crap. This is definetly not a Cat 2 0r 3 hurricane, maybe a Cat 1, but the internal structure is even poor for that.
its in the main part of the convection
Florence has been forming an eye for the past 6hrs....

New blog!
New Blog
i suspect we have a cane as soon as recon gets there. t-numbers more than support it
A compostite of Florence:

Jer~ Got one waiting on approval. Should have ran out there a moment sooner. Near missed the launch, sleeping... after staying up watching recon lastnight...lol. Sorry didn't get the Nasa Feeds out. They redid the page, I was all confused, figured it out to watch it but couldn't figure out how I got there to post it...