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EF-4 tornado kills 6 in Texas; Mahasen makes landfall in Bangladesh, killing 10

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on May 16, 2013

After going twelve months with a record-low tornado death toll of just seven people, last night we received a jolting reminder that tornadoes typically kill a lot more people than that in the U.S. A deadly tornado swept through Granbury, Texas near 8 pm CDT, killing six and injuring up to 100. The weather system that spawned the Granby tornado also unleashed a mile-wide twister that hit Cleburne, about 25 miles southeast of Granbury. Damage was heavy in Cleburne and a state of emergency declared, but only seven minor injuries were reported. A third tornado hit the small town of Millsap, about 40 miles west of Fort Worth, causing roof damage a destroying a barn, but caused no injuries. Preliminary figures indicate that a total ten tornadoes touched down in Texas last night, and NWS damage survey teams are out today to determine the exact total and how strong they were. The National Weather Service out of Fort Worth has issued a preliminary rating of EF-4 to the Granbury tornado, making it the first tornado stronger than EF-0 reported in May 2013. The storms also dumped softball-sized hail up to 4" in diameter in Mineral Wells, TX.


Video 1. The Granbury, Texas tornado of May 15, 2013.

Thursday's tornado was the deadliest U.S. tornado in over a year. The last time six people died in a U.S. tornado was on April 14, 2012, during an EF-3 tornado that hit Woodward, Oklahoma. The last Texas tornado that was deadlier occurred on April 24, 2007 in Maverick County, when an EF-3 tornado hit Eagle Pass, Texas, killing seven. Texas has had one other tornado death in 2013, from a twister that hit on February 21, 2013, in Sabine County. The region of Texas hit by last night's tornadoes has few basements, which may have contributed to the death toll. According to underground member Seattleite, "In this part of Texas basements are very uncommon. The reason is due to the soil, it is basically clay. It contracts and expands with temperature and moisture levels on the order of a foot or more in a typical year. The pressure from this can cause basement walls to cave. They can be built, but it costs at least an extra $20,000+, as they surround the basement with a sand-like barrier to handle the changes in the ground."


Figure 1. Softball, anyone? One of the 4" hailstones that fell near Mineral Wells, Texas on May 15, 2013. Image from Patrick Vondra via Twitter.

Is the 2012 - 2013 tornado drought over?
Thanks to the cold spring in the Midwest during 2013, and the 2012 Midwest drought, the 197 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes that occurred during May 2012 - April 2012 was an all-time minimum for any twelve-month period since at least 1954, wrote tornado researcher Harold Brooks at the U.S. Severe Weather Blog (previous minimum: 247 tornadoes from June 1991-May 1992.) The death toll of just seven was also a record low for any twelve-month period since 1950. Amazingly, this tornado drought occurred less than two years after the record maximum: 1050 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes from June 2010 - May 2011. The extraordinary contrast underscores the crazy fluctuations we've seen in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns during the past three years. Call it "Weather Whiplash" of the tornado variety. A blog post by meteorologist Patrick Marsh of NOAA's Storm Prediction Center argues that the record 12-month tornado maximum of 1050 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes from June 2010 - May 2011 was a 1-in-62,500 year event. The record 12-month minimum of 197 EF-1 and stronger tornadoes that occurred from May 2012 - April 2013 was a 1-in-3000 to 1-in-4000 year event. In Marsh's words: "Anyway you look at it, the recent tornado "surplus" and the current tornado "drought" is extremely rare. The fact that we had both of them in the span of a few years is even more so!"

Our tornado drought may be at its end, as the latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather pattern Saturday - Monday. The current forecast calls for just a "Slight Risk" on Saturday over the Northern Plains, but the threat will grow on Sunday and Monday as a powerful spring weather system gathers strength over the center of the country.

Saturday's main threat areas: SD to NE, and northern KS
Sunday : IA, parts of MO/KS, to central/eastern OK
Monday : IL/MO to OK/TX border


Figure 2. MODIS image of Tropical Cyclone Mahasen taken at 06:50 UTC Thursday May 16, 2013. Mahasen made landfall about two hour prior to this image as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Mahasen hits Bangladesh
Tropical Storm Mahasen hit the Bangladesh coast near 08 UTC Thursday, May 16 near a place called Feni north of Chittagong. Mahasen was a tropical storm with top winds of 50 mph at landfall. Satellite observations suggest that the storm was becoming much more organized just before landfall, and it is fortunate that the storm ran out of time to intensify when it did. Mahasen likely brought a storm surge of up to a meter (3.3 feet) to the coast of Bangladesh, but it is the storm's rains that are causing the main problems. Satellite rainfall forecasts made at landfall show that Mahasen could dump up to 20 inches of rain along a swath through Bangladesh and into Northeastern India. These rains will be capable of causing destructive flooding, and ten deaths have already been reported in Bangladesh from the storm. At least eight people have been killed in Sri Lanka due to landslides triggered by Mahasen's heavy rains, and a boat carrying refugees capsized on Monday, killing eight and leaving 50 missing.

First tropical storm of the year, Alvin, forms in the Eastern Pacific
The official start of hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific is Wednesday, May 15, and Mother Nature emphatically agreed, bringing us the first named storm of the year, Tropical Storm Alvin. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots and the storm currently struggling to hold itself together, it currently appears unlikely that we will see a Hurricane Alvin. The storm is moving west-northwest into the Central Pacific, and is not a threat to any land areas.

I'll have a new post this afternoon, on an important climate change study released today.

Jeff Masters

Tornado Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters, as always. The National Weather Service out of Fort Worth just issued a preliminary rating of EF4 on the Granbury tornado a few minutes ago.

Thanks Dr. Masters!! May the lost souls rest in peace
Thank You Dr !

Its a bad 24 hrs weatherwize !

Feel nothing but sadness for those who have lost their lives .
Quoting Tazmanian:



EF4 all ready? that means they could vary well find some EF5 damges if they are still looking

That's actually a very good possibility, based on areal images past history. Many times with the most intense tornadoes, the worst damage isn't surveyed right away because the destruction of that area often renders it inaccessible for a time.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters, as always. The National Weather Service out of Fort Worth just issued a preliminary rating of EF4 on the Granbury tornado a few minutes ago.



Thanks! I updated the post.

Jeff Masters
Drop in pressure from 1008 to 1003 MB LOL

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161432
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
800 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013

...ALVIN NO LONGER STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.4N 107.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALVIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.7 WEST. ALVIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
My heart goes out to victims of the tornado's in Texas last night as well as those experiencing Mahasen..
Very curious about the upcoming post from a study on the climate..
Thanks again
Thanks Doc.
If the tornados don't kill ya, those hailstones sure will!
Carry over from last blog ... Really Helpful Hurricane Preparedness Info from mikatnight

Quoting mikatnight:
Palm Beach County residents:



Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case someone might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.


Mikatnight,
Thank You! for your efforts & sharing.
Very nicely done and lots of helpful lists & links.

Quick suggestion -
On your WU Blog, add a permanent link to your Protocol Notebook.
Maybe even some of the info into a Welcome Post for your blog.

Linkage here at WU will help index your hurricane preparedness info into search engines like Google and Bing.
During season when people are in need & scouring the web, your notebook and it's handy, valuable tips will surface very high in search results. Search engines will even specifically target mobile users in the WPB and Florida regions based on your notebook's concise content.
Again KUDOS! on a Great Job!

Fran
Thanks Dr. Godspeed to the families of the deceased in Texas. Don't fully understand the mechanics at play this tornado season (jet stream related) but with such a warm January in the SE and a bit of an "extended" Winter, it seems like the normal Spring tornado season has also been set back by several weeks. Will be interesting to see if we see any significant tordado outbreaks going into June this year.
Our tornado drought may be at its end, as the latest forecasts from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center call for an active severe weather pattern Saturday - Monday.

12z GFS is running now..I hope the models back off of this weekend because it looks to be a doozie..as much as I like severe weather, I never want it to where it threatens people lives..hope whatever forms this weekend stays out over rural fields..
The way the models are depicting it right now, the next system could spawn an outbreak.



15. JRRP

La Niña??
Quoting mikatnight:
Palm Beach County residents:



Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case someone might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.


Excellent work. Bookmarked in my tropical links! :)THANKS!
Quoting 1900hurricane:
The way the models are depicting it right now, the next system could spawn an outbreak.





how bad an outbreak 1900..April 2011?
Thanks Jeff...
Hi, all! Back for the season. :)

Found this GREAT image of a TS and it's visible pressure waves for your viewing entertainment. Apologies if this has been posted, but this is my first day back since last season.

B

Link
High end EF-4 or low end EF-5 is my guess, 190-205mph winds.
Quoting FLCrackerGirl:
Carry over from last blog ... Really Helpful Hurricane Preparedness Info from mikatnight



Mikatnight,
Thank You! for your efforts & sharing.
Very nicely done and lots of helpful lists & links.

Quick suggestion -
On your WU Blog, add a permanent link to your Protocol Notebook.
Maybe even some of the info into a Welcome Post for your blog.

Linkage here at WU will help index your hurricane preparedness info into search engines like Google and Bing.
During season when people are in need & scouring the web, your notebook and it's handy, valuable tips will surface very high in search results. Search engines will even specifically target mobile users in the WPB and Florida regions based on your notebook's concise content.
Again KUDOS! on a Great Job!

Fran


Thanks so much for your kind words and your useful suggestions! I must confess, I wasn't aware I actually had a blog...I'm going to have to get out more often. Very good though. I shall do as you suggest!
ndon Sherer‏@AssistantToND20 min
#BreakingNews: Shearon Harris Nuclear Plant Is SHUT DOWN Due To Cracks In Reactor - "No Danger To Public" - Latest #ABC11 Noon


Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l3 min
HARRIS NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTS DOWN AFTER CRACK IN REACTOR -- @wral
Quoting Luisport:
ndon Sherer‏@AssistantToND20 min
#BreakingNews: Shearon Harris Nuclear Plant Is SHUT DOWN Due To Cracks In Reactor - "No Danger To Public" - Latest #ABC11 Noon


Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l3 min
HARRIS NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTS DOWN AFTER CRACK IN REACTOR -- @wral


O_O
Quoting moonlightcowboy:


Excellent work. Bookmarked in my tropical links! :)THANKS!


Thank you!
Total destruction. Only the concrete slab remains.

Quoting JRRP:

La Niña??


I've been wondering the same thing for days, but haven't mentioned it. I'm no expert, but I don't see how you can have so much blue across the tropical Pacific and not have a La Nina.
Quoting ncstorm:


how bad an outbreak 1900..April 2011?

I don't think we'll see anything like the 2011 Super-Outbreak in a long time. With that being said though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good multi-day outbreak, with one of the days featuring an SPC High Risk.
Quoting Luisport:
ndon Sherer‏@AssistantToND20 min
#BreakingNews: Shearon Harris Nuclear Plant Is SHUT DOWN Due To Cracks In Reactor - "No Danger To Public" - Latest #ABC11 Noon


Gregor Peter‏@L0gg0l3 min
HARRIS NUCLEAR PLANT SHUTS DOWN AFTER CRACK IN REACTOR -- @wral


great, in NC..glad no danger to the public..
RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) -- Duke Energy Progress has shut down the Shearon Harris nuclear plant near Jordan Lake in southern Wake County after an inspection revealed early signs of corrosion and cracking in the reactor vessel - which contains the plant's nuclear fuel.


Wake County Nuclear plant has been shut down.
The plant - which began operations in 1987 - is located in New Hill, about 20 miles southeast of Raleigh.

Officials said the quarter inch crack was not all the way through the reactor vessel wall and there is no indication any radioactive material escaped.

"Initial evaluation indicates that the flaw is not through wall and there is no evidence of leakage based on inspections performed on the top of the reactor vessel head during the spring 2012 refueling outage. Operators are shutting down the unit to make the necessary repairs. There is no impact to the health and safety of employees or the public," read a report on the incident on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission website.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I don't think we'll see anything like the 2011 Super-Outbreak in a long time. With that being said though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good multi-day outbreak, with one of the days featuring an SPC High Risk.


okay thanks..you going chasing on this one?
New Hill, N.C. — A quarter-inch crack in the wall of the reactor at the Shearon Harris nuclear plant in southwest Wake County has forced Duke Energy to take the plant offline, officials said Thursday.

No radioactive material leaked from the plant, and the public is not in danger, officials said.

The plant will remain out of commission indefinitely, officials said, which will require Duke to purchase electricity from outside sources to meet demand. Shearon Harris provides power to about 500,000 customers.

According to information Duke filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Shearon Harris was taken offline last year for refueling, and ultrasonic tests of the reactor were taken at that time. A secondary review of those tests this weeks revealed the "primary water stress corrosion cracking" on a nozzle that overlaps a weld.

"Initial evaluation indicates that the flaw is not through wall, and there is no evidence of leakage based on inspections performed on the top of the reactor vessel head during the spring 2012 refueling outage," the NRC event report states.
Thank you Dr. Masters.... Praying for the Texas friends
Quoting ncstorm:


okay thanks..you going chasing on this one?

Highly doubt it, looks to be too far north for me. Still kicking myself for not chasing yesterday. Just kind of had that feeling...
Quoting Torito:
New Hill, N.C. — A quarter-inch crack in the wall of the reactor at the Shearon Harris nuclear plant in southwest Wake County has forced Duke Energy to take the plant offline, officials said Thursday.

No radioactive material leaked from the plant, and the public is not in danger, officials said.

The plant will remain out of commission indefinitely, officials said, which will require Duke to purchase electricity from outside sources to meet demand. Shearon Harris provides power to about 500,000 customers.

According to information Duke filed with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Shearon Harris was taken offline last year for refueling, and ultrasonic tests of the reactor were taken at that time. A secondary review of those tests this weeks revealed the "primary water stress corrosion cracking" on a nozzle that overlaps a weld.

"Initial evaluation indicates that the flaw is not through wall, and there is no evidence of leakage based on inspections performed on the top of the reactor vessel head during the spring 2012 refueling outage," the NRC event report states.


Duke just purchased Progress Energy..I guess that crack wasnt disclosed in the buyout..



So close to me... May head south to chase later!
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Highly doubt it, looks to be too far north for me. Still kicking myself for not chasing yesterday. Just kind of had that feeling...


You would have chased an E4/E5?..more power to you...
Quoting ncstorm:


Duke just purchased Progress Energy..I guess that crack wasnt disclosed in the buyout..


Business corrupts people.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I don't think we'll see anything like the 2011 Super-Outbreak in a long time. With that being said though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good multi-day outbreak, with one of the days featuring an SPC High Risk.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I don't think we'll see anything like the 2011 Super-Outbreak in a long time. With that being said though, I wouldn't be surprised to see a good multi-day outbreak, with one of the days featuring an SPC High Risk.
1900, Maybe yes, Maybe no... The times they are a changin'
Here's another house that was reduced to the slab via NWS Fort Worth:
Quoting wxchaser97:
Here's another house that was reduced to the slab:


I think i see a pencil on the ground there, suprised that diddnt get blown away..
thats a different color..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Total destruction. Only the concrete slab remains.



...and the wood flooring. Wow. Gives one pause. Such power. Such horror. The people? My God, where are the folks that lived in what was surely a fine house? Whisked away in a savage nightmare...?
Quoting Torito:


I think i see a pencil on the ground there, suprised that diddnt get blown away..
Torito...Not fun going through a tornado no matter what F scale... Went through the Xenia tornado April 3rd, 1974 when I was very young, nothing to scoff at...
Breaking News Storm‏@breakingstorm53 s
Deadly Texas twister classified as powerful EF4; winds up to 200 mph, weather service says - @AP
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Torito...Not fun going through a tornado no matter what F scale... Went through the Xenia tornado April 3rd, 1974 when I was very young, nothing to scoff at...


..... Im saying that it doesnt make sense that the pencil is there but the house is not.
Who here has actually been in a tornado?..

I have and PBW stated so as well..nothing you would want to experience..trust me..
Quoting Torito:


..... Im saying that it doesnt make sense that the pencil is there but the house is not.
Pencil?
I hope these storms dont spawn a tornado that hits this powerplant that is damaged.....
49. MTWX
Quoting Torito:


I think i see a pencil on the ground there, suprised that diddnt get blown away..


Tornadoes can do some odd things. One of the ones I've been in had moved our entire house 6" off of it's foundation, but didn't disturb any of the the lawn furniture on the front porch to include the ashes still in my grandmothers ashtray!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Pencil?


yeah, under the bolt sticking through the floor... near the rock.
Quoting Torito:


yeah, under the bolt sticking through the floor...
Ok fine
Quoting MTWX:


Tornadoes can do some odd things. One of the ones I've been in had moved our entire house 6" off of it's foundation, but didn't disturb any of the the lawn furniture on the front porch to include the ashes still in my grandmothers ashtray!!


were you in the house at the time or in a basement/shelter?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Ok fine


see it? i really think that is a pencil. i dont understand why it stayed there through the storm......
Quoting CybrTeddy:
High end EF-4 or low end EF-5 is my guess, 190-205mph winds.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Total destruction. Only the concrete slab remains.


Be very very careful with rating based upon pictures...
Even for the destruction and slabbing of a well-constructed single family home, the lower bound of expected wind speeds is 165mph, which as at the top of the EF3 wind-speed range. And for most pictures shared around on social media and the web, we do not know how the house was constructed based solely on a picture.

Pictures alone will give you ballpark... is this weak, strong, violent... but you have to go by how well the structure was built to make tweaks to the expected windspeed before determining a rating. There are examples of buildings completely destroyed that only made it to the EF2-3 range due to construction. Several candidates for EF5 damage in the Tuscaloosa tornado barely made EF4 due to their construction.
Quoting ncstorm:
Who here has actually been in a tornado?..

I have and PBW stated so as well..nothing you would want to experience..trust me..


I was about 200 yards from the Hattiesburg tornado in February. Close enough to have debris flying into the side of my house with the power out and having no idea if it was about to his us. Yeah, pretty scary, especially when you hear these awful words: "Storm spotters reported a large wedge tornado headed into..."
It may very well have been dropped there from elsewhere by the storm.
Quoting Torito:


see it? i really think that is a pencil. i dont understand why it stayed there through the storm......

Quoting Torito:


I think i see a pencil on the ground there, suprised that diddnt get blown away..


Not a pencil. Too big. Too long. See what you mean though...
About Alvin splitting in two...


It is not impossible to see something like that turn into 2 seperate tropical systems...

Interested to see what happens with this....

Example...
59. MTWX
Quoting ncstorm:


were you in the house at the time or in a basement/shelter?


We were in between the basement, and upstairs...

The house had a sump pump with no backup. So when the power went out, we had to bail water!! had to carry it in buckets up the stairs to the bathroom to prevent the basement from flooding.

We were unaware that there was even a tornado until we went outside the following morning, and noticed the house 2 doors down was gone...
Quoting rxse7en:
Hi, all! Back for the season. :)

Found this GREAT image of a TS and it's visible pressure waves for your viewing entertainment. Apologies if this has been posted, but this is my first day back since last season.

B

Link


Thanks for posting this. It will be very interesting to learn more about those gravity ripples. Apparently there are some former studies on the phenomenon:

Link

Link
Quoting wxchaser97:
Here's another house that was reduced to the slab via NWS Fort Worth:


Ok, now here is something we can work with. Notice how in the NWS picture, they were focusing very closely on the foundation, and how the foundation was attached to the frame?
In this picture, it looks like some bolts were fastened to the frame, which is one factor that will probably be analyzed by the survey team(s). which as I understand it, is consistent with a well-constructed building.
Note:This post has been corrected.
I remember this SUPER ACTIVE WEEK for the atlantic...

this was yesterday in Texas..releasing balloons to test the atmosphere Im guessing..

NOAA Severe Weather on Facebook

May 15: Filling the balloon with helium as it is held down by the launch tube. — in Seymour, TX.



May 15: MPEX mobile balloon launch. — in Seymour, TX.


May 15: It's hard to hang on to the balloon in high winds. — in Seymour, TX.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Be very very careful with rating based upon pictures...
Even for the destruction and slabbing of a well-constructed single family home, the lower bound of expected wind speeds is 165mph, which as at the top of the EF3 wind-speed range. And for most pictures shared around on social media and the web, we do not know how the house was constructed based solely on a picture.

Pictures alone will give you ballpark... is this weak, strong, violent... but you have to go by how well the structure was built to make tweaks to the expected windspeed before determining a rating. There are examples of buildings completely destroyed that only made it to the EF2-3 range due to construction. Several candidates for EF5 damage in the Tuscaloosa tornado barely made EF4 due to their construction.

I'm not sure if it goes for all houses but where I lived in Fort Worth (and had visited surrounding areas) had very well-built houses...meant to withstand 175 mph IIRC.

But yeah, I get the point.
Wow, I haven't even been paying attention to Alvin this morning, but it almost appears that its circulation is degenerating a bit and rejoining the monsoon trough. Rough.

Quoting MTWX:


We were in between the basement, and upstairs...

The house had a sump pump with no backup. So when the power went out, we had to bail water!! had to carry it in buckets up the stairs to the bathroom to prevent the basement from flooding.

We were unaware that there was even a tornado until we went outside the following morning, and noticed the house 2 doors down was gone...


wow!!
Quoting MississippiWx:


I was about 200 yards from the Hattiesburg tornado in February. Close enough to have debris flying into the side of my house with the power out and having no idea if it was about to his us. Yeah, pretty scary, especially when you hear these awful words: "Storm spotters reported a large wedge tornado headed into..."


Do you have a basement or were you in a closet or secured room in the house?
Quoting MississippiWx:
Wow, I haven't even been paying attention to Alvin this morning, but it almost appears that its circulation is degenerating a bit and rejoining the monsoon trough. Rough.



looks like it is splitting into 2 seperate sections.
Maybe it was 150 mph. Somewhere around in there.
Quoting ncstorm:


Do you have a basement or were you in a closet or secured room in the house?


Unfortunately, no. Not many people do around here.
Quoting ncstorm:
Who here has actually been in a tornado?..

I have and PBW stated so as well..nothing you would want to experience..trust me..


I was in a EF3 about 40 years ago in Wisconsin. Thankfully the old farm house we were renting had a root celler.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

Be very very careful with rating based upon pictures...
Even for the destruction and slabbing of a well-constructed single family home, the lower bound of expected wind speeds is 165mph, which as at the top of the EF3 wind-speed range. And for most pictures shared around on social media and the web, we do not know how the house was constructed based solely on a picture.

Pictures alone will give you ballpark... is this weak, strong, violent... but you have to go by how well the structure was built to make tweaks to the expected windspeed before determining a rating. There are examples of buildings completely destroyed that only made it to the EF2-3 range due to construction. Several candidates for EF5 damage in the Tuscaloosa tornado barely made EF4 due to their construction.


Not basing it off pictures as I have little knowledge on how to determine exact windspeed based on damage. I'm saying that if they're already determining it to be an EF-4 on the preliminary ratings, I truly can see this being upgraded to an EF-5. For example, the Joplin tornado's preliminary rating was an EF-4 as well but based on a closer analysis it was upgraded to an EF-5.
That single spot where development is possible is STILL there...

75. MTWX
Tornado survey page updated as information comes in...

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:


I was about 200 yards from the Hattiesburg tornado in February. Close enough to have debris flying into the side of my house with the power out and having no idea if it was about to his us. Yeah, pretty scary, especially when you hear these awful words: "Storm spotters reported a large wedge tornado headed into..."


I can't begin to imagine how terrifying an experience that was for you.
The storm at panama and the other one next to the NOAA logo are both interesting...

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ok, now here is something we can work with. Notice how in the NWS picture, they were focusing very closely on the foundation, and how the foundation was attached to the frame?
In this picture, it looks like some bolts were fastened to the frame, which as I understand it, is consistent with a well-constructed building.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure if it goes for all houses but where I lived in Fort Worth (and had visited surrounding areas) had very well-built houses...meant to withstand 175 mph IIRC.

But yeah, I get the point.


Ok, I'm just an electrician, but

(A) I don't see very many bolts. Snapped off? Maybe, or yanked through the slab. Still, just dinky little bolts. You'd have thought they'd at least have kept the wood base to the wall. I'm quibbling, I know.
(B) It's a wood-frame house. AKA stick houses. Find it hard to believe any stick house could withstand cat 5 w/out major engineering.

IMHO

Also, as I said, electrician - can't trust those guys.
Alvin somehow got tugged back into the monsoon trough it appears. I don't see him making it much longer like this, especially with a high area of shear ahead.





Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not sure if it goes for all houses but where I lived in Fort Worth (and had visited surrounding areas) had very well-built houses...meant to withstand 175 mph IIRC.

But yeah, I get the point.

It is entirely possible that some of the speculation ends up correct. It is entirely possible that we will see a final rating ranging from low end EF4 to EF5 (although they very rarely go down from a preliminary rating, so at least low-end EF4 is virtually assured). The radar data and pictures would be consistent with that high of a rating, but sometimes lower ratings happen for similar storm structure, radar depiction, preliminary pictures, etc. So hopefully people keep in mind that I'm not trying to say it's not going to end up being a violent tornado, nor am I necessarily disagreeing with the statements coming from WFO Dallas/Ft Worth.

I'm just trying to make sure we all keep our skeptical scientist hats on and remember:
1) Not all pictures shared on the internet are genuine.
2) Not all things that look like EF-X type damage, actually will end up as EF-X damage in the end.
3) Even with well-constructed houses that are slabbed, the rating is not always EF5 because the associated wind speeds are actually a range, and that range goes from very high end EF3-EF5 even if the building is well constructed.
4) Even storms like the one that hit Tuscaloosa that have many things that could be consistent with EF5 damage, well they don't always end up EF5. There were several subtle mitigating factors that surveying scientists used that just can't all be taken into account in web pictures, and these kinds of thorough, on-the-ground investigations make all the difference.

With all of that said, we should be careful to immediately jump to certainty for a particular rating based upon the information available to us on a web forum, regardless of how much we want to and how excited we are about the event.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I was in a EF3 about 40 years ago in Wisconsin. Thankfully the old farm house we were renting had a root celler.



EF2 myself..we rode it out in the living room..at that time we werent aware we were supposed to go to a closet or the bathroom..
Alvin is done for, look at the loop at how fast it dissappears.
Link


The interesting storm on panama going into the pacific is visible as well.
Nothing deadly, but impressive (video) ...
"Dramatic pictures have emerged of St Petersburg television tower being struck during a lightning storm on Monday":
St Petersburg TV tower struck by lightning
#80 -

Nailed it.
01E/TS/A/CX

Quoting ScottLincoln:


Ok, now here is something we can work with. Notice how in the NWS picture, they were focusing very closely on the foundation, and how the foundation was attached to the frame?
In this picture, it looks like some bolts were fastened to the frame, which as I understand it, is consistent with a well-constructed building.


There are no metal brackets anchoring the wall studs to the baseplate in this picture. You can see where the studs were pulled off the nails holding them to the sill. A better way to attach the sill is to use lateral steel reinforcement plates for the anchor bolts that go through the sill. Washers don't have enough bearing surface. This house is several years old as the sills are CCA treated wood, not ACQ as has been in the code for a few years now,

2013 hurricane names released
Posted: May 15, 2013 10:08 AM EDT Updated: May 15, 2013 10:08 AM EDT

The National Hurricane Center releases this year's list of storm names. (Source: WFTV/CNN) The National Hurricane Center releases this year's list of storm names. (Source: WFTV/CNN)

ORLANDO (WFTV/CNN) – Hurricane season is almost here and the National Hurricane Center has released its annual list of storm names.

The list alternates between boy and girl names. The list kicks off with Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin and Fernand.

Hurricane season begins on June 1.

The name Sandy was retired from the list of hurricane names after last year's devastating storm.

The entire list of names can be seen at nhc.noaa.gov.

Copyright 2013 WFTV via CNN. All rights reserved.
Quoting ncstorm:

2013 hurricane names released
Posted: May 15, 2013 10:08 AM EDT Updated: May 15, 2013 10:08 AM EDT

The National Hurricane Center releases this year's list of storm names. (Source: WFTV/CNN) The National Hurricane Center releases this year's list of storm names. (Source: WFTV/CNN)

ORLANDO (WFTV/CNN) %u2013 Hurricane season is almost here and the National Hurricane Center has released its annual list of storm names.

The list alternates between boy and girl names. The list kicks off with Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin and Fernand.

Hurricane season begins on June 1.

The name Sandy was retired from the list of hurricane names after last year's devastating storm.

The entire list of names can be seen at nhc.noaa.gov.

Copyright 2013 WFTV via CNN. All rights reserved.



Yea i just read about sandy being retired a few hours ago..


And Chantal? what kind of name is that... xD Never heard that name ever.
Unless you live in a concrete bunker of some type, and with reinforced windows, virtually impossible to avoid catastrophic building failure with wind speeds over 125 mph whether from a tornado or hurricane. Regular home buildings have the "standard" windows, doors, and usually a wood based roof with trusses. Once a window gets blown in or part of the roof collapses, those wind speeds quickly get into the structure and it collapses.

Very frightening to see those post-hurricane or tornado picktures with just the remianing concrete slab. I always wonder when I see those whether the building had concrete cbs/block walls, or, a wooden structure. I mention this because I don't usually see fallen or collapsed cbs/brick walls around the exposed foundations.

I am correct or wrong in assuming that most of the concrete slab pictures I see from the Mid-West are from wooden wall structures?

Thanks.
SevereStudios‏@severestudios1 min
RT @teamsusysolis: Damage in Granbury [TX]. An entire neighborhood was destroyed @CBSDFW Link
The only thing I've ever seen that assures an EF5 rating is the scouring of pavement or asphalt, and unless that is found, I'm personally skeptical that the tornado will be upgraded. However, I would not be surprised at all to see such occurrences found in the damage surveys as they continue.
000
AXNT20 KNHC 161146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.


...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 8N43W TO 2N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
AXIS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE WAVE LIES
WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 40W-
43W. A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE WEST OF THE AXIS
FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD
REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N67W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST ALONG 32N54W TO 19N65W SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N56W AND
CONTINUES TO 23N64W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR AXIS TO
EASTERN CUBA AT 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS NORTH OF 30N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 43W SUPPORTING A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 46N36W.
HOWEVER...A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N43W DISTURBS THE
RIDGE ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW
CENTER ALONG 30N44W 27N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN AFRICA ALONG 30N TO 24W. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF
THE TROPICAL ATLC PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS.

First discussion for the atlantic i have seen so far..
Quoting mikatnight:


Ok, I'm just an electrician, but

(A) I don't see very many bolts. Snapped off? Maybe, or yanked through the slab. Still, just dinky little bolts. You'd have thought they'd at least have kept the wood base to the wall. I'm quibbling, I know.
(B) It's a wood-frame house. AKA stick houses. Find it hard to believe any stick house could withstand cat 5 w/out major engineering.

IMHO

Also, as I said, electrician - can't trust those guys.

Hopefully those points you made will be considered during the survey. I imagine that they are being considered. I know in some cases where some homes have looked "completely destroyed" with most of the debris in the basement or blown into a neighboring field, it has been found that the foundation was only attached with a nail pointing upward with nothing more. Basically the tornado just pulled most of the house off the foundation and shattered it next to the foundation. It was upper-end EF2 damage that appeared like possible EF4+.
I imagine the survey teams are also trying to find out which of these buildings used hurricane straps.
94. MTWX
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Unless you live in a concrete bunker of some type, and with reinforced windows, virtually impossible to avoid catastrophic building failure with wind speeds over 125 mph whether from a tornado or hurricane. Regular home buildings have the "standard" windows, doors, and usually a wood based roof with trusses. Once a window gets blown in or part of the roof collapses, those wind speeds quickly get into the structure and it collapses.

Very frightening to see those post-hurricane or tornado picktures with just the remianing concrete slab. I always wonder when I see those whether the building had concrete cbs/block walls, or, a wooden structure. I mention this because I don't usually see fallen or collapsed cbs/brick walls around the exposed foundations.

I am correct or wrong in assuming that most of the concrete slab pictures I see from the Mid-West are from wooden wall structures?

Thanks.


If you go to the Link I posted earlier, It looks as if the brick structures fared much better than the wooden ones...
Close up video of the Granbury tornado... Wish he had a better camera instead of a cell phone. Watch looking skyward towards the end.

Link

Also a longer video of the one the Dr Masters linked.

Link
Quoting MississippiWx:
Alvin somehow got tugged back into the monsoon trough it appears. I don't see him making it much longer like this, especially with a high area of shear ahead.







he has failed could end up a naked swirl faster than expected seems

had its chance overnight but just could not keep it together

harmless anyway just a test tracker for the real deal later

atlantic may get its first somewhat of a system soon


First look at the damage in Granbury. An entire neighborhood was destroyed @CBSDFW
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STORM NAMES


Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Sorry if anything is spelled wrong, just typed them by hand.

Same names as 2007 except several retired names.
Quoting MTWX:


If you go to the Link I posted earlier, It looks as if the brick structures fared much better than the wooden ones...


Thanks. I lived in a CBS block home in South Florida for decades and now live in a wooden home in North Florida so I always contemplated this issue. However, once the roof or windows go, even on a concrete or brick home, the damage inside can still be catasropic (total loss) even if the the walls, or a portion of them, are still left standing.


@NWSFortWorth NWS Fort Worth
#Johnson County on the east side of Lake Pat #Cleburne
Quoting AussieStorm:


First look at the damage in Granbury. An entire neighborhood was destroyed @CBSDFW
death happen here
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not basing it off pictures as I have little knowledge on how to determine exact windspeed based on damage. I'm saying that if they're already determining it to be an EF-4 on the preliminary ratings, I truly can see this being upgraded to an EF-5. For example, the Joplin tornado's preliminary rating was an EF-4 as well but based on a closer analysis it was upgraded to an EF-5.

Because offices rarely will ever lower the rating from the preliminary rating, it is very typical that you will see a rating start on the low side before going higher. But even with that said, just because something is preliminarily EF4, that certainly does not say that the final rating will be higher. The Joplin tornado is not necessarily representative of every high-end tornado, nor is its survey representative of how every survey might be handled.


SPC AC 161629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL VA/SRN MD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN TX INTO SRN AR AND
NRN LA...

...CENTRAL VA/SRN MD...
A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM
NRN/CENTRAL WV INTO NRN PARTS OF THE DELMARVA REGION. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER CENTRAL VA AND SRN MD WHERE
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S...A DEEP SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER
/INVERTED-V SOUNDING STRUCTURE/ IS DEVELOPING. CONTINUED HEATING
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE LIMITED CIN WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS TO
FORM WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING/STABILIZATION COMMENCES.

...NERN TX/SRN AR/NRN LA...
UPPER LOW OVER ERN OK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO AR
THROUGH TONIGHT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. STORMS HAVE PERSISTED
THIS MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF AN EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
ALSO BE ENHANCED BY A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER ROTATING CYCLONICALLY
INTO THE SRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE UPPER LOW.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR SLOT PROGRESSING EWD OVER ERN TX WHERE
STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING WILL OCCUR...CONTRIBUTING TO
DESTABILIZATION SPREADING INTO NWRN LA THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE FROM NERN TX
INTO SWRN AR/NWRN LA THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. 35-45 KT WLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE STORM
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY...WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL TORNADOES.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
death happen here

In that area yeah, in that house???
Looks like a wheel chair at the front of the car.
This is a good reference to discriminating EF4 and EF5 damage that may appear to be quite similar.

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww/wp-content/upload s/2012/03/LaDue_NSWW2012.pdf

This will give you an idea of the types of things the surveyors from NWS Dallas/Ft Worth will be looking for through today and probably tomorrow, at least.
106. MTWX
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Thanks. I lived in a CBS block home in South Florida for decades and now live in a wooden home in North Florida so I always contemplated this issue. However, once the roof or windows go, even on a concrete or brick home, the damage inside can still be catasropic (total loss) even if the the walls, or a portion of them, are still left standing.


Exactly!

Once the wind is inside, whether through doors/windows or roof, it is pretty much over for anything inside...
alvin removed as it is current active storm that name is used

2013 ATLANTIC/EAST PACIFIC STORM NAMES
ATLANTIC
Andrea Barry Chantal Dorian Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto
Ingrid Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah
Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
EAST PACIFIC
Barbara Cosme Dalila Erick Flossie Gil Henriette Ivo
Juliette Kiko Lorena Manuel Narda Octave Priscilla Raymond Sonia Tico Velma Wallis Xina York Zelda



you can find all the names and other tropical info here at my blog

Link
Quoting barbamz:


Thanks for posting this. It will be very interesting to learn more about those gravity ripples. Apparently there are some former studies on the phenomenon:

Link

Link
You're welcome!
Quoting Torito:
2013 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON STORM NAMES


Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Sorry if anything is spelled wrong, just typed them by hand.

Same names as 2007 except several retired names.


2007 was my first real year of what one could call "armchair forecasting" (though I've been on WU since 2005). That was the first year I had gained enough knowledge on tropical cyclone development to make unprofessional judgments on systems that turn out to be widely inaccurate. Will be fun to see these names again.
Quoting ScottLincoln:
This is a good reference to discriminating EF4 and EF5 damage that may appear to be quite similar.

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww/wp-content/upload s/2012/03/LaDue_NSWW2012.pdf

This will give you an idea of the types of things the surveyors from NWS Dallas/Ft Worth will be looking for through today and probably tomorrow, at least.

Would you have any idea what other duties the NWS surveyors perform when they aren't out in the field assessing storm damage?
111. MTWX
Radar imagery has just been added to the survey page...
I'm going to bed, 3am here now. Please if your in a severe storm warned area, or in any area with a slight risk, please stay close to your wx radio.

Stay safe, Stay well.

Goodnight



Larger image here
Satellite image during the height of yesterday's Texas tornado event. Very impressive satellite image. red dot is Grandury, TX.

From: Tornado Titans - Extreme Weather and Storm Chasing Facebook page.

Quoting AussieStorm:

In that area yeah, in that house???
Looks like a wheel chair at the front of the car.
red scribble spray paint means its been check the red x means well you know i already said it
114. MTWX
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Would you have any idea what other duties the NWS surveyors perform when they aren't out in the field assessing storm damage?


If I'm remember correctly, most members of a survey team do that as sort of an additional duty.. They are meteorologists, engineers, and other fields as their day job...
have a good sleep friend see later tonight my time
Quoting mikatnight:


Ok, I'm just an electrician, but

(A) I don't see very many bolts. Snapped off? Maybe, or yanked through the slab. Still, just dinky little bolts. You'd have thought they'd at least have kept the wood base to the wall. I'm quibbling, I know.
(B) It's a wood-frame house. AKA stick houses. Find it hard to believe any stick house could withstand cat 5 w/out major engineering.

IMHO

Also, as I said, electrician - can't trust those guys.

Actually, the more I try and look at this, it is possible that they followed typical construction, but perhaps it was not well constructed, so I might have jumped-the-gun a bit. This seems to be somewhat similar to the clubhouse example in the PDF I just shared, which ended up being rated EF4, even though it appeared to be EF5 from simple pictures.
Repost from last blog. I'll try not to be a pest about it. Gonna put it on my blog, which until very recently, I didn't know I had. Aren't we all special now?
Time for me to get to work. Good luck, and keep the faith...

Palm Beach County residents:


Evernote notebook: 'HURRICANE PROTOCOL'
(for pc, mac, tablet or smartphone)

Our hurricane guide. I picked the name 'cause I thought it was fancy.
Always a work in progress. Not for everyone. Just thought I'd share it in case some might find it useful. Tailored for the area. Has many links.

Downloading the (free) Evernote app is not required to view the HP guide - though it is a better view if you do.
Comments, suggestions & constructive criticism welcome.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
red scribble spray paint means its been check the red x means well you know i already said it


Oh, I didn't know what those spray paint markings mean. Now I don't want to know. Goodnight all
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

Would you have any idea what other duties the NWS surveyors perform when they aren't out in the field assessing storm damage?

The people who conduct surveys are same the meteorologists, hydrologists, and office management that do forecasts and issue warnings all other times of the year. During an event like this, they will typically organize teams to survey damage and re-organize staffing accordingly. Sometimes on higher-end events, staff from regional and national offices come to assist in the survey and help provide expertise on how well constructed a building was. Because of the very large scope of the 2011 event, many tornadoes were surveyed with the help of some very knowledgeable people on the EF-scale, including people that helped develop it.
Thanks, Scott (Post number 119). Thank you MTWX for the explanation (post 114) as well.
122. MTWX
Quoting ScottLincoln:

The people who conduct surveys are same the meteorologists, hydrologists, and office management that do forecasts and issue warnings all other times of the year. During an event like this, they will typically organize teams to survey damage and re-organize staffing accordingly. Sometimes on higher-end events, staff from regional and national offices come to assist in the survey and help provide expertise on how well constructed a building was. Because of the very large scope of the 2011 event, many tornadoes were surveyed with the help of some very knowledgeable people on the EF-scale, including people that helped develop it.


You're NWS aren't you Scott?? I seem to recall in the past you mentioning that...
Quoting MTWX:


You're NWS aren't you Scott?? I seem to recall in the past you mentioning that...

Yes, but not at a WFO.
Before I forget.


The Barometer Bob Show for May 16, 2013.
Guests will be:
James Brinkley, from the National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit.

A spokesperson from The National Flood Insurance Program.

and Wayne Salade, Charlotte County Emergency Management and their project, "Know Your Zone".


Show starts at 8pm/ET
You can call the show Live via the toll free number 1-866-931-8437, 904-259-4229 and on Skype or join us in Storm Chat to share your thoughts, ask questions, and watch the show. You can also call in via Skype. We are also available on AOL and Yahoo Instant Messengers during the show. Our username is BarometerBob.

I will be in Storm Chat, just sign-in with your WU handle.

Goodnight all.
I have no way to back this up since survey crews aren't there yet, but based on what has been tossed around Twitter and TexAgs, things sound horrific in the Cleburne area.
It's about to turn very wet across FL as a deep surge of tropical moisture slides up from the Eastern Caribbean.

128. MTWX
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I have no way to back this up since survey crews aren't there yet, but based on what has been tossed around Twitter and TexAgs, things sound horrific in the Cleburne area.


The survey crews are there... They are already posting some of their survey pictures on the survey page...
In most homes up here you'll find a basement.Don't know why they don't have them where they really need them.A house up here can't be complete without a basement!.

I remember when I first went to Goergia and I saw the older homes with no basement he newer developments had them though.
floridas going to have tropical trouble as they say here tie me to a palm tree
132. MTWX
Quoting washingtonian115:
In most homes up here you'll find a basement.Don't know why they don't have them where they really need them.A house up here can't be complete without a basement!.

I remember when I first went to Goergia and I saw the older homes with no basement he newer developments had them though.


Some areas you can't have basements, like here... The water table is too high. The only houses with basements around here are ones that are built on significant hills.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:





WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(not 75 exclamation marks in case someone was counting)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I love this setup.
Hazard of strong flooding is looming or already occuring in the Alpes:

A major conflict of air mass occurs above the Mediterranean between fresh air descending from the British Isles to the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco and the warmer air rising from Tunisia to Central Europe. At the heart of the heat exchange, depression moving in the vicinity of the Balearic and generates a very disturbed and unstable on the western Mediterranean and the countries bordering time.

With the air very cool polar origin tumbling in northern Spain, the snow is expected from 1000 meters on the Cantabrian, Iberian Mountains and the Pyrenees. A very unstable time concern the north and east of the country with thunderstorms that will be accompanied by heavy rain and hail. Temperatures are lower 5 to 10 C the values of the season.

Once again, the foothills of the Italian Alps will be very strong thunderstorm rainfall Thursday and Friday. An orange alert violent storms has also been issued on the Lombardy and Piedmont where local accumulations up to 300 mm is expected. The risk of floods and landslides is important in these regions. Moreover, Sardinia and Tuscany are also orange alert for thunderstorms and gusty wind.

Source


Total precipitation until May 21 in mm. Alpes are at the bottom of the map (totals 3 to 4 ft).

Europe today: Cold airmasses are digging down to the south at the left side and warm airmasses moving upward with a lot of moisture in the middle and right side of the map.

Source

Quoting ncstorm:


WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(not 75 exclamation marks in case someone was counting)



LOL
Less and less rain for my area... more and more rain for...

this is the 12z GFS at the same time as the CMC..farther east..will the CMC be right again?





12z Navgem-last frame



Quoting ncstorm:
this was yesterday in Texas..releasing balloons to test the atmosphere Im guessing..

NOAA Severe Weather on Facebook

May 15: Filling the balloon with helium as it is held down by the launch tube. — in Seymour, TX.



May 15: MPEX mobile balloon launch. — in Seymour, TX.


May 15: It's hard to hang on to the balloon in high winds. — in Seymour, TX.


I thought they used hydrogen instead of helium, because of cost? I know hydrogen is not as stable, but for a weather balloon, there's no passengers.
Hey guys

As usual i miss all the fun...

Any video of the tornado while it was a mile wide?

Also how many significant tornados were there?

2 or 3?
Quoting oracle28:


I thought they used hydrogen instead of helium, because of cost? I know hydrogen is not as stable, but for a weather balloon, there's no passengers.


the statements I listed were put there under the pictures on facebook..so yes, they used Helium
Quoting ScottLincoln:
This is a good reference to discriminating EF4 and EF5 damage that may appear to be quite similar.

http://www.norman.noaa.gov/nsww/wp-content/upload s/2012/03/LaDue_NSWW2012.pdf

This will give you an idea of the types of things the surveyors from NWS Dallas/Ft Worth will be looking for through today and probably tomorrow, at least.


A very fascinating read!
Featured weather for April, 2013:

click image for larger view
Quoting StormTrackerScott:

Getting wet around there again, Scott!
Why are people saying wow? What are the models showing? (I'm on my phone.)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

[...] Also how many significant tornados were there? 2 or 3?

Tornadoes Across North Texas, May 15th, 2013

Preliminary Tornado Count: 10

EF-4 Damage Discovered in Granbury
EF-3 Damage Discovered in Cleburne
The Cool and Wet Spring has Nearly Wiped Out the Drought in the Region

The cool and wet spring has continued in the last two weeks with many areas from central through west central Missouri and eastern Kansas seeing above normal precipitation. In some cases this has been close to 200 percent of the normal amount for this period of time. The exceptions were a strip from extreme northeastern Kansas into far northwestern Missouri and across the northern tier or two of counties in Missouri. The persistently cool and wet conditions have eliminated drought conditions across most of Missouri, with the exception of far northwestern portions of the state, which remains in a moderate drought (D1). Eastern Kansas has also improved but still remains in abnormally dry (D0) or moderate drought levels.

Read more here: Link


Quoting CybrTeddy:


2007 was my first real year of what one could call "armchair forecasting" (though I've been on WU since 2005). That was the first year I had gained enough knowledge on tropical cyclone development to make unprofessional judgments on systems that turn out to be widely inaccurate. Will be fun to see these names again.
Lurked for a couple of years and then finally joined. Still not even close to being able to "arm chair" forecast! But it does seem like I am getting better at understanding what you guys are saying (and recognizing the one's that have something to say!) most of the time. I enjoy reading not just everyone's forecasts, but their reasons for why they have made those forecasts. ...and then after the fact the analysis of what factors jumped in at the last minute and altered the way everything went.
152. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why are people saying wow? What are the models showing? (I'm on my phone.)


Wash both the GFS and CMC are showing a rainmaker for Florida and the Caribbean with big totals upto 192 hrs
And this is why it is true that a Tornado can rip the asphalt off of a highway. Paul Delegatto receive this picture from Fox News in Tampa Bay..."Incredible damage in Granbury Texas where the National Weather Service has confirmed that an EF-4 tornado struck last night. (winds 166mph-200mph) All that is left of this house is the slab."

Death toll rate of Mahansen unfortunately is climbing:

"At least 40 deaths related to Mahasen were reported in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, including 22 Muslim Rohingya from Myanmar, missing since their boat capsized on Monday as they fled the oncoming storm.
The bodies, including those of 14 children and six women, were discovered on a Bangladesh beach near the Myanmar border.
Cox's Bazar police chief Mohammad Azad Mia said ... the bodies of the remaining 31 missing would probably be washed ashore."

Source/AP
Afternoon all.

I see we have Alvin. I'm assuming it formed from the area of disturbed wx we were observing on the weekend. Weather's been warm by day here, but the nights and early mornings are still pleasantly cool. Dunno how long that'll last, though... Summer is a-comin' in...

Quoting VR46L:


Wash both the GFS and CMC are showing a rainmaker for Florida and the Caribbean with big totals upto 192 hrs
Makes sense lowering heights over the east coast would draw anything in the Caribbean northward.
Going to be wet across the great lakes region this weekend into next week.




...Habitat for Humanity volunteers were working to finish two more homes for waiting families on the day the twister struck, said Michelle Kennedy, assistant director for Trinity Habitat for Humanity, a nearby affiliate that was supporting the local Hood County Habitat organization on Thursday.

"The house that was under construction this week survived," Kennedy said. "The house that was ready to dedicate on Saturday was completely destroyed."

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/16/182993 19-texas-tornadoes-devastate-neighborhood-built-by -residents-habitat-for-humanity?lite
12z Euro is running..been showing good vorticity off the east coast for several runs now..same as the CMC in the general area

216 hours
A blocking high to the north with a wedge of weakness over FL spells lots of rain for FL.

Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro is running..been showing good vorticity off the east coast for several runs now..same as the CMC in the general area

216 hours


But nothing in Caribbean as CMC is showing.

Euro 240hrs
.edited as I see Scott beat me to it


Heavy rain here on Provo this afternoon... not obvious on sat image.
Quoting barbamz:
Umm ...

Aerial photos: Before and after Granbury tornado



Unbelivable! Before and after photos sure bring home the carnage! Thank you for posting
Tropicsweather..

the first image is from Meteocentre CMC 12z run..nothing in the caribbean as you stated..the Euro is slacking for some reason



the second image is from Levi's site..he explained yesterday why they differ..

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
...Habitat for Humanity volunteers were working to finish two more homes for waiting families on the day the twister struck, said Michelle Kennedy, assistant director for Trinity Habitat for Humanity, a nearby affiliate that was supporting the local Hood County Habitat organization on Thursday.

"The house that was under construction this week survived," Kennedy said. "The house that was ready to dedicate on Saturday was completely destroyed."

http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/16/182993 19-texas-tornadoes-devastate-neighborhood-built-by -residents-habitat-for-humanity?lite


kinda ironic don't ya think

The tropical storm on the 12z CMC was similar to what the GFS had been showing a few days back.



We'll have to see if it begins to show any consistency. I wouldn't put too much thought into it yet, we know the CMC's tendency to spin up ghost storms, even though it got Alvin right. I don't think development would be possible in the Caribbean until the first week of June.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The tropical storm on the 12z CMC was similar to what the GFS had been showing a few days back.



We'll have to see if it begins to show any consistency. I wouldn't put too much thought into it yet, we know the CMC's tendency to spin up ghost storms, even though it got Alvin right. I don't think development would be possible in the Caribbean until the first week of June.

Ironic thing about it is that the GFS was showing that storm around may 25th exactly around the same time Canadian is now showing this system.
My personal thunderstorm outlook for Saturday

where is the GFS rain for florida? humidity here doesnt always make rain...
sea breeze showers EAST of I-75 local met says...........
There was a millsap tornado rated ef1....
Tornadic cell

another tx/la tornado warning, the storm is almost into Louisiana now

SevereStudios‏@severestudios2 min
Tornado Warning for Harrison and Panola County in TX until 3:00pm CDT. #txwx


SevereStudios‏@severestudios2 min
Tornado Warning for Caddo and De Soto Parish in LA until 3:00pm CDT. #lawx


hopefully it's not deja vu all over again a little further east.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
While the GFS nor its ensembles show a developed area of low pressure in the NW Caribbean, the ensembles do show a nice area of below average pressures in the NW Caribbean around the same time frame. It's still probably a little too early (May 26) and it probably won't be until AOA June 1st when we start having something to watch (if the MJO brings us anything at all).

Quoting Catherdr:


There are no metal brackets anchoring the wall studs to the baseplate in this picture. You can see where the studs were pulled off the nails holding them to the sill. A better way to attach the sill is to use lateral steel reinforcement plates for the anchor bolts that go through the sill. Washers don't have enough bearing surface. This house is several years old as the sills are CCA treated wood, not ACQ as has been in the code for a few years now,

I recall that the screws with bolts were considered better building construction than the simple nails coming up from the foundation, and that hurricane straps were even better yet. So it's starting to sound like I may have been wrong in my original post on the picture of the foundation and have since corrected the post. After reviewing some information it looks like they would need evidence of a continuous load path and a strapped frame to go much higher than the expected value for winds. It would be evidence of a building closer to code than very well constructed.