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East Pacific hurricane season kicks off

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:03 PM GMT on May 30, 2006

Hurricane season has begun in the Northeastern Pacific (the region off the west coast of Mexico), with the formation of Tropical Storm Aletta over the weekend. Aletta is expected to die by Thursday, a victim of high wind shear and dry air. At its peak, Aletta was only a weak tropical storm with top winds of 45 mph. The storm brought over two inches of beneficial rain to Acapulco, and ten inches to the surrounding mountains. Aletta is now moving away to the west over open ocean, bringing an end to the rains over Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest image of Aletta.

NOAA's 2006 forecast for the Northeastern Pacific hurricane season calls for a less active than usual year, with 12-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-3 major Category 3 and stronger storms. On average, the Northeastern Pacific has 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4.5 major hurricanes. The pattern of upper level winds that favors an active hurricane season in the Atlantic typically brings high wind shear and low hurricane activity to the Northeastern Pacific. Last year's record breaking year in the Atlantic was balanced by a slightly below-average year in the Northeastern Pacific, which had 15 named storms, seven hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The last three east Pacific hurricane seasons have been below normal, following an overall trend of lower activity since 1995. This is exactly the opposite of what has been observed in the Atlantic. "Since 1995, despite the trend to warmer waters in the tropical east Pacific, higher wind shear has contributed to fewer tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes," noted Muthuvel Chelliah, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center lead scientist on the east Pacific hurricane season outlook.

The Northeast Pacific basin hurricane season officially began May 15. The season has a broader peak than the Atlantic. Activity usually begins in late May or early June, and lasts until late October or early November. Peak storminess occurs in late August/early September. Only three Eastern Pacific hurricanes have had their names retired--Hurricane Ismael of 1995, Hurricane Pauline of 1997, and Hurricane Kenna of 2002, all of which hit Mexico. In addition, Adolph and Israel of 2001 had their names retired for political reasons.

I'll be back Wednesday with a look at Bill Gray's latest Atlantic hurricane season forecast, due to be issued tomorrow.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1. F5
First!

Here's hoping for a less active season on both sides.
Wwasn't Iniki retired?
Iniki formed in the Central Pacific, which is considered to be a different ocean basin; storms from the East Pacific can move into the Central Pacific (it happened a couple times last year).

Link
Article in the Washington post about Global warming skeptics. The article quotes Bill Gray extensively.

Link
By the way, I don't believe what Gray says about the thermohaline circulation (he says that when it speeds up, hurricane activity increases). Evidence shows that it is slowing down (by 30% over the last few decades) and this means that the water in the tropics gets hotter because less heat is transferred to the poles; others agree with me as well.

By the way, if you read my link, it says that Gray denies that it is weakening because of increased hurricane activity.
83 degree water temp at the buoy south of Panama City..out in the middle gulf. Daytime highs in the mid 90's in the inland Florida panhandle area and it isn't even June yet. Below average storms in the eastern Pac. You just know another active season is soon to be upon us in the Atlantic/Gulf/Carribean....heading toward the mid 80's in the gulf in May? uh..oh....
The blob near Texas is still just that, a blob. Shear is still way too high for development. No surface low whatsoever.



weathercore.com
is coming along well still. Drop in if you are looking for weather links and information.
the cape verde season will again be affected by the dust coming off the african coast..this dust gets into the storm and prohibits it development...look for a lot of tropical depressions coming off the coast but the dust will inhibit the development....i said this last year and of course i was correct storms were dismantled by this red dust..it already has started to appear in the water vapor loop you can see it clearly...look for a very slow season when the cape verdes season begins...StormTops Weather Office 00958
Hey ST! That depression this weekend sure dumped alot of rain along the Gulf Coast. I hope you recovered. Have a nice day!
Depression? What depression?
STORMTOP,

It's not the dust itself that inhibits TC development, it's the extremely dry air that carries the dust.

Anyway, we had the same thing last season early on, which basically shut down the tropics for a few weeks, and we still had a record-breaking season all the way around. If we get some of those big dust storms (and the accompanying dry air) in September, that would make more of a difference, IMHO.

Time will tell.
Everybody, read the second half of this blog; where did Stormtop's depression go?
So...how is AlettEpsilon doing? :)
Good question.... where did the depression go? Not to mock or anything, but I hope this just shows even ST himself that he can be wrong and that he shouldnt act like he never is. It'd also be nice if when he was questioned about something that he didn't get so abrasive and call people stupid, ect. Then I might listen to some of his forecasts.
Another problem is that he never says where he gets his forecasts from or why he thinks that something will develop or why storm xxx will do this or that.
16. IKE
Hey STORMTOP...give up the office bit. Act like an adult. Opinions are appreciated. But your act is getting old.
well.... dust again is going to mess with our exciting season, hopefully not for long.

But in the Gulf its going to look mightly favorable soon, lots of convection but nothing yet....

StormTop..keep on doing what your doing..these guys that are cutting you were not here last year so they dont know squat about you...
This is from the blog that I linked to in my earlier post:

Posted By: Alec at 5:19 PM EDT on May 23, 2006.
Here's part of his discussion as NO was getting ready to get slammed:

Posted By: STORMTOP at 1:46 PM GMT on August 28, 2005(Actually, 8:46 AM CDT). OK GANG IM
HERE AND READY FOR THE BIGGEST STORM POSSIBLY ON RECORD..THERE IS ONLY ONE STORM WORSE
THEN THIAS ONE THAT IS THE FLA KEYS STORMS...THE PICS I TAKE WILL BE
PHENOMINAL..IT LOOKS LIKE I GOT THIS ONE RIGHT ON THE NOSE HUH
LEFTY

Notice, he's really happy that he was "right"...I am thankful that 180mph sustained winds didnt hit LA and MS...



Huh? He is happy that over 1,800 people were killed?!
well.... dust again is going to mess with our exciting season, hopefully not for long.

you must not live anywhere near a vulnerable coast. I would be just delighted not getting any hurricane formation.
20. WSI
"But in the Gulf its going to look mightly favorable soon, lots of convection but nothing yet....
"


Shear is too high, and nothing even try to get to the surface.. Looks like the shear slack off for a day or two (according to the models), but then will come right back again.
21. WSI
Alec, fine the crap out of me for my last post. Wrong tenses mainly, LOL!
Joe Bastardi says that a rogue storm developed for a few hours overnight and gave Port Aransas 56 M.P.H. winds. He says that center moved over land but another one might form and could feedback since this upper feature is going to sit here until Wednesday. Also take a look at this WindSat image. Shows a tight kink off the coast there with decent winds around it. There is broad turning evident on visible loops as well. This could be a little something to watch for a few days. Even though the shear is very high rogue developments like this defy all odds sometimes...

I should have said, "broad mid-level rotation"
24. WSI
"Even though the shear is very high rogue developments like this defy all odds sometimes..."

Well if it beats out the shear there now, we can throw all we know about wind shear out the window, LOL!
WSI I see your point, what I meant was that rogue storms are very special systems, and have the unique charactaristic of defying shear and other problems during their development sometimes.
Bastardi said this and Bastardi said that. Some of you guys need to stick to the Accuweather site, if ya love the guy that much...LOL Also, Levi if ya post a pic here, please try and minimize it a bit, because it stretches out the blog.
That picture is not too big for me (maybe that is because my monitor resolution (1024x768) is higher).
Bob Bastardi says a lot of things that are right and his reasoning is very solid.

Sorry about the pic but everybody posts that particular one full-size and other pictures which are much bigger. I didn't think it was that big but sorry anyway.
Michael my screen resolution is the same as yours.
Well some arent. So please, just remember people on dial up and smaller screens. On your blog its ok, but remember this is Dr. Masters blog.
Talk about warm-core ... this system is off the charts.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/06053006/2.html
Sure Bob just tell everybody that not just me.

Anyway here's a link to a radar loop of the rogue storm.
By the way, shrinking an image does not make it smaller (file size) and easier to download; it only changes what you see on the screen.
34. Inyo
Stormtop is claiming he is seeing dust on the water vapor imagery.. is this even possible? Don't those images only depict the amount of water vapor in the air? You might see dry air associated with dust but you won't see the dust on there.

Also, yeah E-pac has been pretty mellow the past few years. It's too bad that the activity has shifted towards the Atlantic since far more lives are at stake there...
Michael that is true.

Newt3d that chart is wild lol! I wonder where that is the map shows it over solid land so I can't see where it is.
Dont take offense Levi. Just a reminder for everyone. It will begin to get busy in this blog very shortly and if everyone posts big pics and radar loops, it will be a mess for people that are trying to get valuable info.
None taken Bob, I understand. The blogs are starting to get busy now so we all should take that into consideration.
Hey guys, what do you think of blob just over panama?
On the phase diagrams, you can click on them (the first two) to see a close up; it is not "off the charts" when you do this; apparantly, the scales on the main charts are always fixed (it also shows the dates so that you can compare it to the track as well as the SLP animation if it is near the U.S).
Hey take a look at the blob of convection blowing up north of Panama. Kind of neat looking.

Satellite Loop
Andrew took the words right out of my mouth lol!
Well I have to run now we have a big beach walk planned for this morning! Nice talking with you all! Hope to see you later!
Afternoon all.

The blob N of Panama looks to just be a blob.

Still alot of shear out there over much of the devleopment region though. Still have a little longer.

StormJunkie.com has been undergoing updates. Some of this has been completed and the sight has a slightly new look. I hope to continue the update process this week. Please keep checking back to see what is new and leave any suggestions-feedback in my blog. And thanks to everyone that has already done so.

Thanks again
SJ
Great minds think alike.
The blob north of Panama is a very organized blob - almost perfectly circular, and even has hints of banding. I looked at the IR this morning and thought some freak TS developed overnight.

That system near Texas has a surface circ, QuickScat shows surface winds.
ROFL...hey Accuweather folks - check out this (blatantly wrong) article.
Do you see an error on this page?
Have to agree with Colby on the blog North of Panama. Of all the places in the Carribean, the extreme SW Carr. does have low shear. Of course, just North of there the shear does increase, so it would have to stay far enough south. Something interesting to watch.
Oh god...now I'm watching their NE hurricane forecast explanation video. They claim there's a 3-year cycle:

El Nino -> Gulf Coast hit -> NE hit

....there wasn't an El Nino in 2004, yet they're saying that this cycle is going to bring storms into the NE this year. What's even better is that this supposed pattern DOES NOT EXIST. They have a graphic on the article I posted a minute ago showing this supposed cycle - but with all the storms outside it removed. They show all the Gulf Coast hits last year, but neglect to note that Charley and Ivan (which WERE in a year following El Nino) hit the Gulf Coast. Guess what? No major East Coast storms last year. How mysterious...
michalp - actually I live s. fl.
Frances and Jeanne were just windy but Wilma was a direct hit. But hey..as long as I dont get damage its just an adrenaline rush.

Plus seeing all those stupid people the next day waiting in a 1 mile line to get supplies that they were told to get 5 days of supplies ready.
If you want to see what some other forecasts call for as far as landfalls go, see the last few posts in my blog here. Especially take note what NOAA says.
well.... dust again is going to mess with our exciting season, hopefully not for long.

Michalp - "you must not live anywhere near a vulnerable coast. I would be just delighted not getting any hurricane formation."

Amen to Michalp's comment. These storms are truly beautiful but at the same time, very, very painful. I know almost everyone on here recognize both of these facts but it does seem like, at times, there are some people who sometimes forget the latter of the two facts. Here's to a bunch of gorgeous fish.
yup. the season has started. in fact gfs shows a major hurricane forming there and a tropical didturbance forming near cuba.
From Colby's link:

According to AccuWeather.com, the 2006 tropical storm season will still be more active than normal, but less active than last year, with fewer storms than 2005's record 26 named storms and 14 hurricanes.

LOL! When will anybody (and not just them) look at the official statistics; don't they know about post-season reports?
Regarding East Coast treat:
The April update of Dr. Gray's hurricane outlook offered the "best analog years for 2006" as 1964, 1996, 1999 and 2003. You may notice that more storms seem to have theatened the US East Coast vs. the Gulf Coast. There is a scheduled update for tomorrow so let's see what if anything changes.

Track Charts from wunderground.com
1964

1996

1999

2003
According to the WRC, the best analog years are 1878, 1889, 1901, 1913, 1923, 1933, 1944, 1954, 1964, 1976, 1986, and 1996 (see outlook). Also, see the Gulf major hurricane threat article as well as this article (the part where it starts with "Chuck Watson").
turtlehurricane - "yup. the season has started. in fact gfs shows a major hurricane forming there and a tropical didturbance forming near cuba."

I just checked the gfs model and I don't see either. Am I looking in the wrong place? Off Cuba?
i was using the 950 mb vorticity. the major hurricane is in the east pacific
thanks turtlehurricane - I thought I had misunderstood.
i just looked at it, it just updated. its now showing ahurricane in the pacific and still a disturbane near cuba, its less pronounced though. also other disturbances near the leeward islands
SLP and cyclone analysis show nothing at all in the Atlantic.
I am looking at the 2003 season, and wondering how it is similar to the 1964, 1996, and 1999 seasons. The 2003 season had 6 storms in the GOM (not all of them originated there), and only 2 storms hit the east coast (counting Juan, which hit Canada).
Never mind the models, we have a blob with ambition just north of Panama!
North of Panama looks more interesting. If shear was lower to the North it would have a chance. Off the coast of Texas, looks very disorganized, and in a high shear environment.
yes, that's a second blob-with-ambition (BWA) but with little hope off of Texas.. my money is on the Panama BWA
Uh-oh... now there is another user with my name... how to tell who is who?
Not exactly the same.
yeah, I'm with the Panama one for most possible developement (when compared to other current blobs) some models have been giving Cuba a hit off it for a some days now (before that it moved more eastward through Bahamas) & well it's in a more favorable enviroment. It also seems to be the blob with the most ambition. Hopefully the area in the gulf will bring some drought sticken area alotta rain.
the BWA near Panama does look nice and symetrical. there is a lot of dry air in the carribean now though.
Just do what David did. Change your name.

LOL
Like you're the only Michael here anyhow. I could have picked MichaelHSV.

That thing off the Texas coast definitely has some rotation to it, though I'm willing to bet it's associated with a frontal boundary of some sort.

The water off the Texas coast doesn't have that much heat content this time of year anyhow ...

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html
so no tropical storms are going to form this week it looks like.
As said in the posts below gatorboy, we have a blob-with-ambition (BWA) just north of Panama that bears watching..
i saw the radar loop, that thing just exploded man, i was like surprised to c it.
77. WSI
"blob-with-ambition"

LOL! Classic. Kudos to the creative mind that thought of that one.
Wow, we already have Blob-02L and Blob-03L to watch.

Actually that system off Texas looks for all the world like a subtropical storm right now...
I thought we learned last year that 'they' dont like it when we call them Blobs.

:(
For the Blob-02L etc. naming..what does the L stand for?
"I thought we learned last year that 'they' dont like it when we call them Blobs."

.. that's why I coined the BWA term! We could have a whole classification system:
- BWA
- SB (sluggish blob)
- BWNF (blob with no future)
- BWP (blob with promise)
- WTFITNHSWRTTB (you can guess at this one, LOL)
"I thought we learned last year that 'they' dont like it when we call them Blobs."

Are you referring to the blobs when you refer to 'they'?
MichaelSTL. And ya thought we would confuse you with the other Michael!..LOL
LOL....I like it!

BTW could somebody post a satellite link of the 'Area of disturbed weather' N. of Panama
Thanks in advance!
i think it wont devlop.
Oh man, this is too funny!! Snowboy, very nice. Didnt know ya had a sense of humor!..LOL
MichaelSTL~ Yes.... I was, All though I totally disagree with the term lol :)
Having gotten clocked by Fran (well inland in Durham, NC) in 1996, I'm hoping that 2006 isn't too analogous.
But if it were to devlop, how long would it be before it became a TD? i am thinking 2 days.
the Texas stuff to me looks like a mesoscale convective system (MCS) that rolled off land and into the gulf...when that happens, can it eventually lead to development?
If the conditions are favorable, then yes, the MCS in the Gulf could develop; in fact, a tropical cyclone is a MCS:

(MCS): A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). Link
well that makes since that cyclones are mcs because they are formed from orgainzed complex of thunderstorms.
whats up with the GFS model on the FSU site? it only comes up as a red X when I click on it, but all the other models look fine!!!!
Is there models of this blob, can i c them?
MIC: Is that sarcasm? Or should I actually run?
97. Alec
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! not all spins turn into tropical killers!LOL

CJ, I'm using your "biggie scale" this season...lol
Did you notice that the image of Aletta self-updates? Usually, Masters uses an image that he saved.
hi all
100. WSI
"ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! not all spins turn into tropical killers!LOL"


Yes, especially when they are surrounded by tremendous amounts of shear (read, system off the Texas coast). LOL!
101. Alec
...gotta go put the shutters up, the gales are coming!LOL.................
Even the mid level shear is high in the weatern Gulf, which means that even an Epsilon-like storm cannot develop.
weatern = western
104. Alec
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:33 PM EDT on May 30, 2006.
weatern = western

that's what the shear does to tropical systems too! Messes them up!LOL
105. Alec
MAYBE EVERBODY IS PUTTING UP SHUTTERS...no wonder everyone got ran off!LOL Have a great afternoon guys, off to hw!....
can anyone else see the GFS model on the FSU site?
107. Alec
yes Jughead...link I got to get going for real.............:)
Tornado Vortex Signature heading to Albany NY from the north... 3:57 E.T.

See radar animation:
Link
Need rain badly here in Cayman.18 hole golf course just re-planted and needs rain. Send blobs in this direction. Then again I guess when it arrives it wont leave-lol.
I can see it. I'm looking at the 850 mb vorticity model, and I can still see the hurricane in the EPac. There is also a BWP [thanks snowboy ;)] just off of French Guiana in South America (~7N, 48W) I don't know if that is too close to the equator, but it is the most interesting thing I've seen in the Atlantic so far.
Look on the last couple of frames.
7N is not too close to the Equator; Ivan turned into a major hurricane at around 10N.
it looks like ripe time for something to devlop
looks like the BWP above Panama is already starting to fizzle out...well, it was a start!
How do you post 1) an image and 2) a web link in a wunderground blog?
Typhoon Vamei of 2001 formed at 1.5 North.

Link
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 12:06 PM EDT on May 30, 2006.
Bastardi said this and Bastardi said that. Some of you guys need to stick to the Accuweather site, if ya love the guy that much.

Must agree this is the WU. Not accu-crap. Go to there blogs if you must talk about them.

Alec checked the spelling for you.
oh do you all think will be are frist category five this year
Could you rephrase that David? I can usually tell what you are saying, but not this time.
with all the hot sea temps around oh do you think out of all 21 name we have oh do you think will be are frist category five storm this year? and how mean do you think we will see in category five storms
"are frist" = "our first"...???

i try not to be too much of a stickler on grammar and spelling and pronunciation, but this is getting ridiculous. "are" and "our" are very different words that people should be able to spell and distinguish.
1st
I just checked to see which letter is statistically the most likely to become a cat-5.

What I found is that the 4th storm (D) is the most likely to get to cat-5 intensity, with 7 total cat-5's. 2nd place goes to the "E" storm, with 4 storms reaching cat-5 strength.

Link
For cat-5 storms before 1950, I used this site to determine what letter would have been used.
winds sure are calm north of the panama to that shear map.
almost cane season
the blob north of panama was just a thunderstorm line that appears to have already disipated
I wonder how many comments will be posted on the first day of the Atlantic Hurricane Season.
.. the Panama BWA is looking much more subdued
Does that make it a SB?
Speaking of The Blob
Panama blob is shearing apart. looks like it will be a while before anyone wins the Alberto pool...
Will the Eastern Pacific continue to have below average hurricanes or will that change in a few years?
What about the blow up by the Bahamas is it in an environment right now that is favorable for development? The only other interesting one out there is in the western gulf and the one down south of the bay of campeche.
It looks like in the western Gulf there is a bit of convection that is holding up.
Aletta is gone, no suprise there.

I'm totally stunned by the Texas blob, as STL is right - shear at all levels is *way* too high. It is occasionally mis-analyzed, but that's pretty rare and usually they don't miss by THAT much. I will note that the SSD genesis perameters page only shows 30kt of shear there. That's unfavorable, but not nessessarily deadly. It also shows a .7% chance for it to develop.

The L is the letter for the Atlantic basin, FYI.
whats THIS blob of stuff off texas coast... looking at radar now .. am i just seeing things or does this "blob" have a bit of circulation to it??
Houstonian you are not seeing things. That blob has a good mid-level circulation and that is what you see on radar. The question is: will the circulation reach the surface? If it does, we could have some rapid feedback development before the system moves over Texas.
Honestly, look at how sheared this system is...Link Very low chance of anything coming out of this. Pressures not falling in that area today.
the cape verde season will again be affected by the dust coming off the african coast..this dust gets into the storm and prohibits it development...look for a lot of tropical depressions coming off the coast but the dust will inhibit the development....i said this last year and of course i was correct storms were dismantled by this red dust..it already has started to appear in the water vapor loop you can see it clearly...look for a very slow season when the cape verdes season begins...StormTops Weather Office 00958
-STORMTOP

That's funny, I see very little dry air at all in the Water Vapor Loop. I've been watching for several weeks now and have seen very little dust at all this year...
THANKS GUYS!!!
Also, just wanted to point out that a buoy off Canaveral is reporting 80+ degree temps already.
jcxt
Wm Gray et al @ Univ of Colorado really is the go-to guy, stepping aside after 22yrs. Most predictions are a spin off from his work. It does seem that "experts" take his work, add a twist or two and become pretenders to the realm. It is good that not many really give much time to the "pretender wannabes". Read Gray asnd laugh @ the wannabes.
Tropical wave is inland over South America along 73w S of 12n
moving W near 10 kt. Wave placement is based upon continuity of
the movement over the past 24-48 hours as little wave signature
is evident. The wave will likely move into the epac tomorrow
afternoon/night and a few models indicate that the wave may
become slightly better defined by then.


what dos any one make of this
The center of circulation appears to be just off the Brownsville coast.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html But shear and disorganization will be its demise.
oops..Easier linkLink
.7% chance. Not exactly a sure thing.LOL
Fred, i have seen that movie. I don't remember when, but it was quite funny and not that scary. A classic.
I apologize if this is redundant but someone was questioning whether or not you can see 'dust' in the air (such as sand off West Coast of Africa)...the answer is yes you can:

http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/aerosols_v8.html

and...

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=927

-StormMan

Texas Blob whether it develops or not, is still an impressive size. I hope it makes its way here to Jax--could really use the rain.

Brian
154. WSI
The "system" off Texas is looking less and less impressive, not that it ever look good anyway. Looks like it is starting to suck dry air into the west side, not to mention the shear.
ONE FINAL NOTE...AFTER ALMOST 17 YEARS IN THE NWS AND WORKING MY
DREAM JOB AS A WEATHER FORECASTER...I MUST LEAVE THIS CAREER TO
FOCUS ON MY BATTLE WITH PARKINSON DISEASE. HAVING GROWN UP IN
SACRAMENTO AND SPENDING MOST OF MY LIFE HERE...IT HAS BEEN A GREAT
PLEASURE TO COME BACK HOME TO SPEND OVER A DECADE FORECASTING IN MY
BACKYARD. AS THE OFFICE WEB MASTER...I WAS GLAD TO BE ABLE TO
ANSWER THE THOUSANDS OF E-MAILS SENT TO THIS OFFICE. AND AFTER
WORKING THE MANY CRAZY SHIFTS AND MANY SLEEPLESS NIGHTS...IT IS TIME
TO REJOIN THE NORMAL WORLD. THANKS TO ALL WHO HAVE GIVEN ME ADVICE
AND HELP ALONG THE WAY. SO NOW I HEAD TOWARDS AN AREA WHERE THE
GRASSES ARE GREEN AND WHERE THE HERD OF LAMS MAY RUN FREE. IF YOU
EVER PASS A HERD OF LAMS NEXT TO THE ROAD OR HIGHWAY...GIVE A WAVE
HELLO. ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ONE LAM HOLDING A SLING PSYCHROMETER.

THE LITTLE LAM


this is from my sac AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA

how sad i be missing him hmmm oh would be takeing overe you think
156. Alec
Nothing will form tropically in the Gulf or the rest of the Atlantic basin for a while....just some areas of unorganized convection....
The "system" off Texas is sucking in dry air on the west ... makes sense since it formed on the dry line of a couple days ago.
hey guys whats up....ive been watching this blob in the gulf and to me there will not be any development because the Subtropical jet is progged to weaken temporarily but shear is forcast to increase again so iam not really lookin for to much out of this....

PS!I ALSO WANTED TO PASS ON THAT BILL GRAY WILL BE RELEASING HIS UPDATE TO THE PUBLIC AT 10:00 EST.
159. Inyo
Posted By: StormMan at 11:43 PM GMT on May 30, 2006.
I apologize if this is redundant but someone was questioning whether or not you can see 'dust' in the air (such as sand off West Coast of Africa)...the answer is yes you can:

http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerosols/aerosols_v8.html

and...

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=927

-StormMan


Maybe you were talking about me.. stormtop said he saw dust in the water vapor imagery... you CAN see dust with satellite date but not WV imagery, i don't think.


Sad news about the meteorologist who is battling Parkinson's... my grandmother also suffers from this... it's not fun.



lightning10, i imagine the next above average E-Pac season will come along with the next El Nino which we should be due for in the next 3 or 4 years.
The last time there was an El Nino (2002), the East Pacific had a record three Category 5 hurricanes, although the number of storms was below normal (12 + 3 in the Central Pacific).
"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 14N MOVING W ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN
ADDITION...A WIND SHIFT AND LOW-MID LEVEL VORTICITY STRUCTURE IS
EVIDENT. THIS WAVE IS ASSISTING IN TRIGGERING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WITHIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN
THE ITCZ."

- From the 8:05 Atlantic TWD. They sound awfully optimistic about a wave that doesn't even seem to be there; the only convection is way to the south in the ITCZ.

Oh and this high shear in the gulf. Above 20kt is unfavorable, above ~ 40 is fatal.
163. WSI
what high shear in the gulf?

How about here...


Or here...

Or maybe here...


It's there. :)
Where does the data for the Wunderground shear forecast come from (here is the correct link; David made a mistake). It does seem to show low shear over parts of the Gulf.
No idea Michael. But the shear is rather high. It was obvious today just by looking at that area of convection off the Texas coast.
TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 74W S OF 12N
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE PLACEMENT IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF
THE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS AS LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE
IS EVIDENT. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.
Nice little gust front shown in last 40 frames from Houston radar. Also, the sheared circulation shows up nicely in the Gulf.

Good night all. It's all beginning now. Hopefully there will be no catastrophic landfalls. God bless!
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave is along 41w S of 14n moving W about 15 kt. This
wave has well-defined cyclonic turning on satellite imagery. In
addition...a wind shift and low-mid level vorticity structure is
evident. This wave is assisting in triggering numerous showers
and tstms within several hundred miles of the wave axis within
the ITCZ.
170. WSI
"Where does the data for the Wunderground shear forecast come from"

AVN (Aviation Model) - 200 hPa - 850 hPa wind shear

THE WAVE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE EPAC TOMORROW
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A FEW MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE MAY
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED BY THEN.

So.. confirmation of possible 02-E developement that models are showing for later this week?
...Tropical waves...
Tropical wave is along 41w S of 14n moving W about 15 kt. This
wave has well-defined cyclonic turning on satellite imagery. In
addition...a wind shift and low-mid level vorticity structure is
evident. This wave is assisting in triggering numerous showers
and tstms within several hundred miles of the wave axis within
the ITCZ.
Good Morning Everyone............Its that time again to make your prediction for this Hurricane Season. Below is a the list from last year........

Please email me with your prediction and also type it in here for confirmation. Remember, no revising in a week, a month, etc......

LAST YEARS PREDICTIONS!!!!!!

moocrew - 20
alec - 16
WSI - 17
DEB1 - 24
Turtlehurricane - 19
canenut - 16
K8e1 - 11
Toyotaman - 18
kjcanon - 13
cjnew - 18
isobar5 - 22
hurricaneking - 21
corpuswatch - 17
emmyrose - 12
orionbarkwood - 18
stsimonsisland - 16
hootythebooty - 22
outrocket - 14
txweather - 18
stormtop - 20
raysfan - 16
orlandocavewatcher - 19
cherikem - 20
tornadoty - 24
nicolai - 18
weatherboyfsu - 14


Get me your prediction..........I think a week should be long enough......after that no revising and im not going to except any more........

174. WSI
I say 18 named storms.
I found another article linking global warming to hurricanes; it even goes so far as to say that the recent increase in hurricanes is caused not by the AMO but aerosols and global warming. Link
22 named storms, 5 major hurricanes ..
Hey WSI and weatherboyFSU. I'm very new to this whole Atlantic basin MCC stuff. What kind of data do you use to be able to make predictions like the ones listed for 2005? Are these predictors educated in the field of Atlantic storm-based study? Not being educated at all about hurricanes, what would it take for me to be able to contribute to this blog? I'd like to comment that I think meteorology is fun and living in Minnesota gives a weather junkie alot of different looks at weather patterns thanks to frequent passes of the jet stream. I also have a wife who makes an incredible weather gauge. She senses storm activity and severity before the news covers it that same day. Do you guys enjoy looking at the weather disturbances or just talking with everybody in the forum because it's a fun group to be in? I don't make predictions. I'm no expert, but I'm interested. And if you don't mind, I'd like to participate in this weather forum. I'll try to be impartial and intelligent. Thanks.
MichaelSTL, thanks for the link.

I would agree that the global trend towards increases in hurricane intensity may be due to global warming from greenhouse gas emissions BUT those who are experts in the field are firmly of the opinion that the higher number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in recent years is just part of a long-term natural pattern.
I would say 21 storms (including any that may be identified post-season).
I say 17 named storms.
If the article is correct, we ought to send planes over the Atlantic and spray aerosols over it.
12 named storms, 6-7 hurricanes and 1 or 2 major......

Question: is high wind shear in Late May- Early June a prediction of the season overall?

Was the May-June 2005 wind sheer this high a cross the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of mexico and Atlantic?
I would venture a guess of 15 named storms.
welcome aboard, gninraelyrt! That handle is a mouthful! Are we supposed to unsramble the letters to find a hidden meaning?
btw, you might notice that nobody guessed too high last year, much less close to the actual numbers. As for hurricanes and major hurricanes, I would say that each is about 1/2 of the lower category (21 storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes).
Is wind-shearing always destructive to hurricane development when they are < 30 kt? I've heard that it can really fiddle with the reintensification cycles of strengthening hurricanes and basically keep TD's from becoming hurricanes. Is this a correct statement? Didn't Hurricane Wilma last year get a big push as it made it's way through Florida, or was that just surface winds that pushed Wilma out of the Gulf and not the wind shear (mid to upper level wind disturbance)? Can someone take a little time to explain this? Thanks!
24 storms...

Bit radical, eh? Well, I'm just that way. I'm going to say we are short one more city this year. Probably on the east coast.
Hey snowboy, No deciphering is necessary. You only need to read it backwards to understand. In some countries, literature is read from right to left, but not as I've typed this one of course. Thanks for the welcome! Do you have wisdom to pass along to me and the weather rookies?
Correction to earlier post wind shear 30 kt. Thanks and please post your thoughts.
Gninraelyrt,

Windshear is almost 100% bad for tropical systems. There might have been a few times a little windshear has done a tropical storm some good, but I have never seen them.
Generally windshear above 15kts is pretty unfavorable for tropical cyclone development. This will keep a TD from strengthening into a hurricane. 30kts of shear will normally rip the cloudtops off even a mature hurricane and dramatically weaken it.

The shear Wilma expeirienced was a bit different. It was referred to a storm relative shear. Even though Wilma was under 20-30kts of shear in the upper-levels, she was moving at 15-20kts at the surface so the shear affected her less.
Klotzbach and Gray have released the updated forecast.

No change from april 4th, still at 17 named storms.
Shear is harmful to storms once you get over about 10kt, and above 25-30 is usually going to stop any development. Wilma was an odd exception, she used an unusually far south branch of the Jet Stream as an outflow channel on her approach to Florida. The shear was not actually over her, it was slightly to her north. The "big push" was the Stream catching Wilma and blowing her rapidly northeast, so quickly that she went extratropical while still a hurricane.
gninraelyrt, you know I tried reading it backwards and missed it first time through.. LOL

The only sage advice I can offer is enjoy the huge variety of fascinating blogs in the WU world, steer clear of conflicts (which do arise from time to time), and don't let it consume you..

This is the main blog, which most everyone checks and which many post in - there is an air of cautious anticipation just now as we await the start of what many are predicting will be another wild hurricane season.

Enjoy the ride.
22 Named storms
20 named storms, with 4+ coming after 31 October.
Your input is appreciated HurricaneMyles, ForcasterColby, and snowboy. Looks like I misunderstood the condition of Wilma's fast exit. It makes total sense that the jet stream would be able to move the system out all on it's own. I get really nervous when a fast moving jet stream is approaching the Twin Cities when the temperatures are in the 90s and the humidity is pushing 70% or better. For some reason, the storms tend to spawn more just to the north or just to the south of the metro. Does this have anything to do with man-made structures obscuring a weather pattern or many bodies of waters nearby? BTW, we rarely experience dry thunder like out in the Dakotas. I'm thankful for that. We vacationed there 25 years ago during a bad storm and I had ringing in my ears for hours from all that crackling. Also, Is it accurate to say that dry lightning is possibly more dangerous than moist lightning? (the damage that may result aside from fire). Do multiple consecutive strikes of branched lightning weaken a storm system or would a single magnificent blast do more harm or is this all irrelevant for storm development? Your thoughts please.
23 Named Storms...I Think We'll See The
Greeks Again. (Alpha06 & Beta06)
Anyone have a link to the updated forecast from Dr. Gray?
"system" off texas is forming an upper low at 28N 95W, according to the latest discussion. it sure looks like a classic non-tropical low with a well defined comma shape.


PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 82% (average for last century is 52%)



2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 69% (average for last century is 31%)



3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)



4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Thanks! Check out the landfall probabilities!



PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:



1) Entire U.S. coastline - 82% (average for last century is 52%)



2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 69% (average for last century is 31%)



3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)



4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Oops, you beat me to it.
4 ENSO



We believe that neutral ENSO conditions are likely to be present during August-October 2006. A weakening La Nia event was observed in the eastern and central tropical Pacific over the past few months. Sea surface temperatures have warmed somewhat over the past couple of months, and according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), neutral ENSO conditions are currently observed. However, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values remain positive, trade winds in the central Pacific have remained fairly strong, and oceanic heat content in the western and central Pacific is not particularly warm. We therefore do not expect El Nio conditions to develop this summer. In addition, most forecast models call for neutral ENSO conditions to persist for the next 4-6 months. When the tropical Atlantic is warm and neutral ENSO conditions are present, Atlantic basin hurricane activity is enhanced.

These important abstracts
205. IKE
A new blog by Dr. Masters on Dr. Gray's predictions.
It looks like there's high confidence in Tropical disturbances this year with many bloggers choosing 20 or more. The interesting spin on this is seeing the Gulf of Mexico and southeast coasts warmer waters. These storms named or not, will mostly develop in these environments, correct? If so, what states if any should take additional steps in preparing for a Cat3 or higher hurricane? All southern coastal states along the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic? May I guess that Texas, North Carolina, Mississippi, and Florida are at an even higher risk this year? This is not my wish of course. I'd prefer that no hurricane make landfall, but if any strong weather disturbance makes its way into the aforementioned environments, these states should be on heightened alert, right? I didn't say Louisiana because I can't fathom that based on a comparison of land mass. Distance coast to coast is most favorable for storms to strike Texas and Florida. North Carolina was mentioned because is fits into the model of a possible northern tracking east coast hit. And I'm guessing Mississippi instead of Alabama and Lousiana because it lies within a dangerous path (current loop storm energizer) should a strong hurricane get around Cuba and Florida. Please tell me all my landfall predictions are unsubstantiated and completely false and I'll feel much better. I don't want to scare anybody. I'M NO EXPERT. Storm tracking models frequently send tropical storms toward Florida and Texas. Mississippi would be an unfortunate disaster. North Carolina would only benefit from a long-winded tropical storm's journey that would not stay in it's strongest category to get that far. Please post comments.
Weaker trade winds have led to anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic since the early part of April. We therefore continue to expect that another very active hurricane season is likely for the Atlantic basin.


HAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!!!! Anomolous Warming. GET USED TO IT MORONS.

Once this thing (greenhouse effect) really gets up to speed there is no stopping it. We were warned for years now we pay.

I LOVE IT.

Nobody cares about coral reefs and stupid glaciers or polar bears. Maybe after one of these suckers puts 3 million people in NY city under water. NOW MAYBE YOU WILL START CARING.

Array_B

Good Luck NY, Boston, Virginia, Washington you will certainly need it this year