WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

East Coast storm on Friday; Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:58 PM GMT on May 15, 2007

All of the major computer models are forecasting the development of a extratropical low pressure system late this week over the Bahama Islands, about 300 miles east of Florida. This low is forecast to develop Thursday night or Friday morning, then move north-northeastward along the East Coast. The models have a wide range of solutions for the intensity and track of this storm, but it appears unlikely that it will have enough time over warm water to become Subtropical Storm Barry. Several of the models predict that the storm will become quite intense and hit New England on Saturday, bringing gale force winds and heavy rain. It's too early to judge the likelihood of this, though.


Figure 1. Hurricane Daniel on July 21, 2006, as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. Daniel was the strongest hurricane to affect the Eastern Pacific in 2006 (Category 4, top winds of 150 mph).

Eastern Pacific hurricane season begins today
Today marks the official start to the hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific. Starting today, NHC will issue their Tropical Weather Outlook for the Eastern Pacific four times daily. The 2-week forecast from the GFS model is not predicting that Tropical Storm Alvin will form in the coming week, but hints that the last week of May could see some development. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is the only group that I am aware of that issues long-range seasonal forecasts for the Eastern Pacific. Their May 2007 forecast calls for a 40% chance of below normal activity (nine or fewer named storms), a 35% chance of normal activity (10-15 named storms), and a 25% chance of an above normal season (more than 15 named storms). The forecast of a less active than usual season is primarily based on their prediction that sea surface temperatures will be below normal in the Eastern Pacific during hurricane season. Unfortunately, they don't provide an easy way to determine how reliable their long-range forecasts are.

I'll have an update on Thursday.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Are these bands coming across the South Florida Radar?
Link
who is going to get the most damage this year from hurricanes
Middle Keys 23
Good to see you too StormW. Consistency will be key here. I also want to see how the shear tendencies play out over the next few days.
507. FLBoy
A little humor StormW.
Convective feedback: Blanket term for we have no idea what the GFS is talking about.
Usually used by NWS forecasters at times like this.
509. FLBoy
I have been watching that area off and on all day. RGB shows a low-level circ working to go.
Unfortunately the GFS is all too often blamed for convective feedback as an escape or an excuse.
883 ABNT20 KNHC 010331 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EST THU NOV 30 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TODAY MARKS THE END OF THE 2006 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. ISSUANCE
OF THIS PRODUCT WILL RESUME ON 1 JUNE 2007.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
_______________________________________________
June 2 is a Saturday...
Please Wait
Hi all

I have looked at the loop of the area S of us and do not see any form of circulation there. What I do see are low level clouds moving E to W and upper level clouds moving W to E, giving the illusion of a circulation. If you watch each one in turn and not focus on the entire picture I think you will see what I mean
513. FLBoy
This is interesting:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
259 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW FORMING NEAR THE
NORTH TIP OF ANDROS ISLAND. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN WELL BY THE
NAM12 AND HAVE USED THE NAM12 AND DGEX FOR THE WINDS.
THE NAM12 IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS40 WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHICH SHOULD PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LOW FORMING AND
MOVING NORTH, MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL GO WITH IT AND THE MOS
GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWER POPS THAN BEFORE.
FlBoy

That circulation I do see
515. FLBoy
Andros is the big island in the Bahamas.


Stormw do u think that area of intrest in the carribean will form (ecmwf shows it becomeing strong and hitting florida
I think it has a good chance of formng.The GFS has been showing such a solution for a while,and the ECMWF is generally the most accurate medium range model.
StormW

Those maps are for wave data, not winds
hello
I do see the wind barbs. Only problem is that my office is on the waterfront and looking out the window all the boats are tailing off with the wind from the East, not the South !. KS 004 on the map is Grand Cayman showing a SSW wind which is incorrect.

The winds through the Central and West Central Caribbean are all from the E or SE ( usual trades ).

In the extreme NW Caribbean there are NNE winds at buoy 42056 which may well be associated with the low spinning up in the Bahamas to the NE of that buoy. I would want to see something more before concluding that there is a some type of low trying to get going in the gulf of Honduras.
So your saying that The bahams system will become Barry
I'm not.
526. RL3AO
I've been gone a couple days, so whats going on?
I have a question. That storm that might form in the caribean, What wind speed would it be?
hurricane strength.
Using the standard wind ratios from 850mb to the surface,81mph.
Thanks for the info. I guess a week from this sat could be interesting in south florida if this holds true.
Evening All,
Here are the current conditions in the Turks and Caicos Islands :
Temperature 79.1 F / 26.2 C
Dew Point 75.9 F / 24.4 C
Humidity 90%
Wind Speed 17.0mph / 27.4km/h
Wind Gust 17.0mph / 27.4km/h
Wind ESE
Pressure 29.85in / 1010.7hPa
and raining
Posted By: sammywammybamy at 5:02 PM EDT on May 16, 2007.

Stormw do u think that area of intrest in the carribean will form (ecmwf shows it becomeing strong and hitting florida


about where in florida would this hit? I'm in Tampa
StormW

KS 004 is Grand Cayman ( where I live )and the wind here is out of the East, not the SSW.

I am not saying it is impossible that there may be a hint of something there but I also believe that since there is a trough in the area the pressures may just as easily be a product of that.

Lets see how the next 24 hrs play out
StormW

See attached 2:05 discussion that refers to the trough in the very same location that you say there is a broad low pressure

Link
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1815 UTC 16 May 2007

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low 998 hPa was centred within 20 nautical miles of
10.4 S 157.0 E and almost stationary.
The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 6 to
12 hours and move towards the west.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds increasing to a maximum 40 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours, and
to 50 knots within the next 24 hours.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 17 May: Within 35 nautical miles of 10.6 south 156.0 east
Central pressure 992 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 17 May: Within 45 nautical miles of 10.8 south 155.0 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 50 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

My comments:

Very good closed circulation, current HPA of 998 sufficient to support development. Low wind shear and high SST's will make development extremely likely
I think it will cut across south florida like wilma did. What are all of your opinions on this.
Amazing model agreement on the Caribbean system, given how far out it is. Interesting.
Oh, and as for the GFS, StormW, it tends to go a little bit insane at long-distant forecasts.
I know that the EMCWF and the GFS is predicting a Caribbean storm, but is there any other models predicting a storm there?
I don't think any other models go out that far.
wheres the best site to get all of the forecast maps and data?
These are the ones I use most often.

EMCWF
FSU models
PSU models
NOAA models
WRF
I hope those are adiquite!
StormW

I just got home and my weather station shows winds out of the SE @ 6 mph with the pressure @ 1011 mb and steady. I live on the South coast of Grand Cayman across from the sea.



Here I am consulting my model LOL
One more try

two strikes !
use www.photobucket.com
last try

Evening y'all ☺ Hope everyone is well.

Not sure about this thing in the Carib next week. Seems that the 18z GFS has slacked off of it a little no?

TRR, you can find the most often used model pages from here.

The Quickscat page has also been recently added; we chould get a view of the area in the Bahamas soon, not that I expect much to be there...
SJ,I don't know if you noticed,but something up with the 18z run.Some of the frames are from the 12z run,including the 384h one.Kind of annoying.
Getting some really good rain here now. Wind has gone to the ENE @12mph

The drought is over !!
Thanks kris, I did not notice that. But I thought it and the other models had this thing forming prior to the 168hr time frame?
557. FLBoy
168hrs....that's a week. Good luck there.
Shear still very high over the Bahamas.
Nothing will happen there unless that slacks off



Link
Hey Storm

Wish I could !. Completely socked in here now although the sat image does not really give a good presentation of that.

Long may it last
Storm

where r u ?
her i am lol
wind shear is droping over the Bahamas it was 50kt but now it is 20kt to 40kt it seen like


what do i no lool
Posted By: StormJunkie at 11:47 PM GMT on May 16, 2007.

Thanks kris, I did not notice that. But I thought it and the other models had this thing forming prior to the 168hr time frame?


Now that I'm looking at it...some of the NAM frames are messed up too.Weird.Anyway,of the frames that aren't messed up,it is in agreement with the ECMWF as to the formation of this system near Central America.
JPH

What do you mean " hogging all the rain " LOL

StormW....I really do think Bastardi is a great forecaster who knows what he's talking about.My problems with him comes when he tries to hype things up.But anyway,I agree with what he's saying.If something gets going down there,there could be an early season problem.
jph thats too good mon LOL

Storm, no problem on the updates this season. The Caribbean is my forte ( such as it is ).
When it comes to the extra tropical, sub tropical, baroclinic systems and what have you I sit back and watch you guys.
573. 0741
not for long weekend please i big plan here in south fl
What is the Bahamas low going to do? Hit maine,I am keeping a very close eye next week in the carribean, i live in south florida and i want to know whats really going on?
StormW i hear you i live in boca raTON SOUTH OF WEST PALM BEACH.
576. 0741
i think we cannot trust and model that go after five day time frame it too many days ahead look at gfs having low form today nothing happen everyone in cayman islands are at beach nice weather
Posted By: Tazmanian at 7:57 PM EDT on May 16, 2007.

wind shear is droping over the Bahamas it was 50kt but now it is 20kt to 40kt it seen like


taz if you're there what do you think about the Carribean low or maybe hurricane that might hit florida next week,it could form into something like wilma
Storm I am not a met type but have been living in the Caymans all my life ( 55 yrs but don't tell anyone ok LOL )

My family go back to the early 1800's here. While I have no formal met training I have followed weather and tropical systems all my life so I guess that makes me an arm chair forecaster !
StormW so should i keep ready my hurricane supplies or is this a false alarm?
gotta do a take out run

bbl
You should keep your supplies ready all the time.
And honestly,how can you call something a false alarm days before it is supposed to happen?
you are right Kris.

I know all about Argentina now from hoarding corned beef LOL
"Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."
- BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

This year Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 20-26, 2007
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Link
Thank you StormW,Its nice for a Fellow floridan to help out another,As you know we all of us floridans need to help each other out we have alot of natural disaters.Do u have a site?
sammywammybamy it is way too soon to tell but for now we need to keep a eye on the forcast modes


this will not be come a wilma you got my word on that one
I Am looking for more explantions hinting something happening next week about that carrebian low?
Thanks Taz for your Advice
Sammy u cant get explanations if nobodys sure whats going to happen
but nothing is impossible
598. 0741
their area near pamama that trying more toward north let see if move into sw carribbean
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean...Link
Patrap how do u post a video?
601. 0741
2007 your pic donot show up
There is nothing there exept a surface trough right now in the Caribb! No signs of anything yet, too early to predict!
oh okay
Hello2007,,StormW
This is a wunderground tutorial on posting links and images on the Blogs 2007. This link is from this page upper right. Link
Infrared
NHC Color Enhancement
GOES-East
Western Atlantic Link
An MJO pulse is set to pull into the caribbean which will induce upward motion which will help development as stated by joe tonight.

Here is this graphic you can see some slight blue entering the caribbean but not much.

fff
Here you go stormw i use it often great link.

MJO graphic

Excellent info and link..StormW
612. PBG00
hey everyone. Well it guess summer is here! A little earlier than usual. Glad to see everyone is still here. Sammy I live in S. Fla and this thing is way too early to give any serious thought to.Just keep an eye on the blogs..alot can happen in a week.No need to get nervous just yet.
Glad to see a few south florida residents on iam also form south florida actually live a few blocks from were the best of the best are located-NHC.I have a pages dedicated to florida weather on my site.

Adrian's Weather
Google earth with MODIS imagery overlay Link
617. PBG00
I am north of West Palm..will check out your site
Satellite Images
Sea Surface Temperature Link
Piece of the NHC discussion from 8:05pm

Not to worry in my opinion as i believe the pending TROF should kick this area out to sea.

NOW OF MORE SIGNIFICANCE IS A SFC LOW
THAT THE NWP MODELS DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...WHERE THERE IS
ALREADY AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDINESS WITH SOME CYCLONIC
TURNING.
Off to go look for models,So goodnight All
Pre-storm Analysis
Loop Current and warm core rings that assisted in the intensification of Katrina. Link
Yea patrap and thankfully weakened to CAT3 status right before landfall.
GOES Ch3 Water Vapour - Aug 28-Aug31
Life cycle of Katrina ( Link
MODIS Truecolor - Aug 28, 17:00 UTCLink
MODIS Truecolor - Aug 29, 19:15 UTCLink
Katrinas Peak before Landfall.Visible Aug 28th Link
630. 0741
can anyone tell me if look like their spin round panama that moving north into southwest carribbean i trying look down their but sat pic cut off
No, 0741. Caribbean is quiet.

NHC's satellite page has the imagery for the Bahama system labelled "Invest".

I propose the term "Invest 01Bahama" until we get more info!
There is probably a little bit more occurring under the cloudiness than we are able to see on the sat.
Is it just me or did NOAA shorten the GFS loops???
No,they didn't.
So I guess the area of disturbed weather near the Bahamas is 91L now, right? I'm assuming this because the NOAA SSD site and the NHC satellite page say "Invest" with the images over this area...

NOAA SSD:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html

NHC Satellites:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
They had that earlier today, removed it, now replaced it! Nothing at the NRL yet! I am thinking that the invest from the NHC is because of the close proximity to land, not much to see but, anything can and does happen.


Tropical Cyclone Pierre, peak forecast 60 knots
hmm.. *suspicious look

what's wrong with your name Michael.. it looks different?
oh I see now, some poser. -_-''
Posted By: hurricane23 at 1:18 AM GMT on May 17, 2007.
Glad to see a few south florida residents on iam also form south florida actually live a few blocks from were the best of the best are located-NHC.I have a pages dedicated to florida weather on my site.


I drive by the NHC every day. I don't worry until I see them put up their storm shutters :D
good afternoon all!
Patrap, I like your links. Very interesting.

good morning everyone
Good morning everyone
StormW,
Thanks, and you've mail too.
so, stormw when do you think Barry will come along
Thanks, StormW.
:-)
By the way, the comments posted at 3:12 AM CDT and 3:28 AM CDT are by an imposter and I have a really good idea of who it is (he copied others' names as well, like turtlehurricane, hurricanechaser and Tazmanian). They should be flagged and reported to the admin.
Morning Star, HG, SW and STL.

Already flagged and reported STL ☺

Checked the Quickscat this morning and did not see much of interest with the Bahamas area. You can find the Quickscat page from here now.
Aaron is not going to be please with that copycat troll who i have flagged several times.

Good morning...

No worries out there as far as tropical development is concerned as we are a few weeks out before conditions start becoming favorable for tropical storm formation.For now enjoy the quite times and you live in florida like myself lets pray for some rain as our chances dont look to great.Looks like the dry spells return for florida as high pressure will build in and keep us dry threw the weekend and into next week.Also forgot to note weak cold-front pushing down the state might bring some scattered precip but thats about it.Adrian

Adrian's Weather
good morning all

I see that " Invest " has been restored to the floater. Perhaps a sign of confidence in the models ?
Models are saying bahamas storm will be extra-tropical. I think the NHC just likes to play with our heads ;)
If youre talking about the area near the bahamas i dont think its really going to be a problem as conditions really remain unfavorable for development and the pending cold-front should kick this area out to sea along with the much needed rain we need in florida.Hope you have a great day Kman.Adrian
Personally I pay no attention to models beyond 3 days out. One day they are calling for development and the next they are backing off. Makes for entertainment and discussion material but thats about it.

Shear is still very high over the Bahamas so anything trying to get started there will have a very hard time . Still, we have seen systems off the E coast of Fla spin up in 30 knot shear conditions. Never say never
new blog
Compare Images of Arctic Sea Ice Extent Side-by-side Link
665. spir
wow