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Earth's Top Ten Weather/Climate Events of 2015

By: Jeff Masters 3:00 AM GMT on January 05, 2016

1) Earth's Warmest Year on Record
The final numbers are not in yet, but 2015 is virtually certain to beat 2014's record as the planet's warmest year since record keeping began in 1880. Nine of the first eleven months of 2015 set new all-time monthly records for global heat in the NOAA database, and the two most recent months that have been catalogued--October and November 2015--had by far the warmest departures from average of any months on record. The new record was caused by the long-term warming of the planet due to human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide, combined with a extra bump in temperature due to the strongest El Niño event ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Record warm ocean temperatures in the tropics in 2015 led to a global coral bleaching event, which is expected to cause a loss of 10 - 20% of all coral worldwide. The lingering warmth from El Niño makes 2016 a good bet to exceed even 2015's warmth.


Figure 1. Departure of the global surface temperature from average for the period January - November, for all years from 1880 to 2015. The year 2015 will easily beat 2014 as the warmest year on record. Image credit: NOAA.

2) Earth's Strongest El Niño Event on Record
A potent El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific that crossed the threshold into the "strong" category in early July peaked in mid-November with the highest weekly heat ever observed in the equatorial Eastern Pacific waters. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event. The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.1°C (5.6°F), NOAA announced in their November 23 El Niño update. This exceeds the previous 1-week record warmth in the equatorial Pacific of 2.8°C above average set during the week of November 26, 1997; accurate El Niño records extend back to 1950. The standard measure for the strength of an El Niño event is the three-month average Niño 3.4 departure of SST from average, and the El Niño of 2015 is tied with 1997 for the strongest on record. The October-November-December three-month average Niño 3.4 SSTs were 2.3°C above average in both 2015 and 1997. The 2015 record-strength El Nino was helped along in mid-March 2015 by the strongest Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) event ever recorded (the MJO is a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days.) The Wheeler-Hendon MJO index hit 4.67 on March 16, 2015, beating the old record of 4.01 set on February 14, 1985. MJO record keeping began in 1974 (with no data available from 3/17/1978-12/31/1978 due to satellite problems). Thanks go to CSU's Phil Klotzbach for stats on the MJO record.



Figure 2. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific’s Niño3.4 region, between 90°W and 160°E longitude and 5° north/south latitude, are considered the benchmark for rating the strength of an El Niño event. The weekly departure of SST from average in this region hit +3.1°C (5.6°F) in mid-November 2015, beating the previous record of +2.8°C set during November 1997 during that year's super-El Niño. Image credit: Jan Null Golden Gate Weather, via Twitter.

3) Earth's Strongest Western Hemisphere Hurricane Ever Measured: Hurricane Patricia
Record-warm ocean waters helped Hurricane Patricia explode into a Category 5 storm with 200 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 879 mb off the Pacific coast of Mexico on October 23, 2015, making Patricia the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere (the Eastern Hemisphere has had several more intense typhoons, however, with Super Typhoon Tip of 1979 holding the all-time record with an 870 mb central pressure.) Patricia made landfall in an relatively unpopulated area near Cuixmala in Southwest Mexico on October 23 as a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds, killing fourteen and doing $300 million in damage. Patricia helped bring the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Northeast Pacific (east of the Date Line) to its second highest value on record, just behind 1992 (288 in 2015 vs. 292 in 1992). The Northeast Pacific (east of the Date Line) also had more major hurricanes (11) than any other year on record, breaking the old record of 10 set in 1992. Thanks go to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University for these last two stats.


Figure 3. Hurricane Patricia as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft at 1:30 pm EDT October 23, 2015. At the time, Patricia was the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, with 200 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 879 mb. Image credit: NASA.

4) Indonesia's $16 Billion Fires: Most Expensive Disaster of 2015
Earth's most expensive weather-related disaster of 2015--and the most expensive disaster in Indonesia's history--is still underway in that nation, where massive clouds of smoke from agricultural fires have choked the lungs of tens of millions of people for months. The World Bank estimated the smoke will cost $16.1 billion in agriculture production, forest degradation, health, transportation and tourism. The disaster may also be the deadliest disaster of 2015, depending upon how one treats the difficult task of determining air pollution deaths. Over 10,000 adults are likely to die from pollution from the fires, judging by the results of a 2013 study in Nature Climate Change by Marlier et al., El Niño and health risks from landscape fire emissions in Southeast Asia. Thanks go to Steve Bowen of insurance broker Aon Benfield for the World Bank damage estimate.


Figure 4. Buildings (background) along Shenton way business district are blanketed with thick smog in Singapore on September 24, 2015. Singapore's air quality reached 'very unhealthy' levels on September 24, forcing schools to close, as thick smog from agricultural fires in Indonesia's neighboring Sumatra Island choked the city-state. Image credit: ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP/Getty Images.

5) Deadliest Weather Disasters of 2015: Heat Waves in Indian, Pakistan, and Europe
Earth's hottest year in recorded history brought three significant heat waves responsible for thousands of deaths. The worst was India's horrid May heat wave, which killed 2,500--the second deadliest in India's recorded history, and the fifth deadliest in world history. According to statistics from EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, India's only deadlier heat wave was in 1998, when 2,541 died. A separate heat wave in June 2015 in Pakistan killed 1,229, ranking as the world's eighth deadliest heat wave in recorded history. Record summer heat in Europe killed hundreds more. Note, though, that death tolls from heat waves are very difficult to estimate, since excess heat is typically not listed as the primary cause of death in cases where the victim has a pre-existing condition such as heart or lung disease. Below is the list of top ten deadliest heat waves in world history as compiled by EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, which uses direct deaths for their statistics, and not excess mortality. Included in bold are two heat waves in 2015.

The 10 Deadliest Heat Waves in World History
1) Europe, 2003: 71,310
2) Russia, 2010: 55,736
3) Europe, 2006: 3,418
4) India, 1998: 2,541
5) India, 2015: 2,500
6) U.S. and Canada, 1936: 1,693
7) U.S., 1980: 1,260
8) Pakistan, 2015: 1,229
9) India, 2003: 1,210
10) India, 2002: 1,030


Figure 5. A young Indian child pours water on himself as he tries to cool himself off in New Delhi on May 28, 2015. Image credit: MONEY SHARMA/AFP/Getty Images.

6) Deadliest Storm of 2015: Floods in South India and Sri Lanka Kill 328
Five weeks of frequent torrential monsoon rainfall fed by record-warm ocean waters during November and early December inundated southern India and Sri Lanka. The resulting floods killed 328 people and did at least $3 billion in damage. Hardest hit was Chennai, an urban area of more than 9 million people that ranks as the largest in South India and among the world’s 40 largest metro areas. Parts of Chennai spent days inundated by as much as eight feet of polluted water, with widespread power outages exacerbating the crisis. Chennai recorded 1218.6 mm (47.98”) of rain in November, the highest observed for any November in more than 100 years of record-keeping. Then, on December 1-2, a total of 345 mm (13.58”) fell in 24 hours, which smashed the city’s all-time 24-hour record rainfall of 261.6 mm on December 10, 1901. Chennai’s airport was closed for four days in early December, with some 4000 people and dozens of aircraft stranded. At one point, all runways were under water.


Figure 6. India's flooded Chennai airport on Thursday, December 2, 2015. Image credit: Atul Yadav/ Press Trust of India via AP.

7) Wild Christmas Week Flooding and Storms in the U.S.
Record atmospheric moisture over the southern U.S. during Christmas week helped fuel record rains and two deadly tornado outbreaks between December 23 - 28. At least 59 people were killed by tornadoes, flooding, and associated severe weather in the outbreak, making it our nation's deadliest weather event of 2015. The heavy rains brought the Mississippi River just south of St. Louis in early January to its highest level since records began in 1844, beating the great flood of 1993. We expect record floods in the spring from the combined effect of snow melt and heavy rains, but to get one in the winter when the moisture-carrying capacity of the atmosphere is usually at a minimum and there is no contribution to the flood from snow melt is off-the-charts freakish. During the insane rains that deluged the Mississippi Valley during the week of Christmas, record levels of atmospheric moisture were observed. This moisture largely came from the southern Gulf of Mexico, where ocean temperatures were at record or near-record warm levels for so late in the year. These waters would not have been so warm without global warming helping make 2015 the warmest year on record globally.


Figure 7. Damage from the tornado that struck Rowlett, Texas, on Saturday evening, December 26, 2015. The tornado was rated EF4, and killed eight people in Garland, Texas. Image credit: NWS/Fort Worth.

8) Tropical Cyclone Pam
A tropical cyclone catastrophe of nearly unprecedented dimensions affected the unlucky South Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, after a Friday the 13th strike in March by Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam. At its peak, Pam's 165 mph winds made it one of only ten Category 5 storms ever rated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the waters east of Australia. The official tropical cyclone warning center for the area, the Fiji Meteorological Service, estimated that Pam's central pressure bottomed out at 896 mb, making it the second most intense tropical cyclone in the South Pacific basin after Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Pam was at its peak strength, with 165-mph Category 5 winds, when it passed over several small Vanuatu Islands to the north of Efate Island, Vanuatu's most populous island (population 66,000.) Pam is one of only two Category 5 cyclones in recorded history to make landfall on a populated island in the waters east of Australia. The only other Category 5 landfall event among the nine other Category 5 storms to affect these waters since 1970 was by the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the basin, Cyclone Zoe of 2002. Pam killed 16 people and did $433 million in damage, making it by far the costliest disaster in Vanuatu's history. According to EM-DAT, the international disaster database, the only comparable disaster in Vanuatu's history occurred in January 1985 when twin Category 3 storms--Eric and Nigel--battered the nation, affecting 118,000 people and doing $173 million in damage.


Figure 8. Tropical Cyclone Pam approaching Vanuatu's capital city of Port Vila on Efate Island, as seen by the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite at 10:20 pm EDT March 12, 2015. At the time, Pam was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

9) Hurricane Joaquin
Hurricane Joaquin was the strongest Atlantic hurricane since 2007, topping out just below Category 5 strength on October 3 with 155 mph winds. Joaquin was the second deadliest and second most damaging Atlantic named storm of 2015, causing $100 million in damage in the Central Bahamas, where it lingered for several days. Joaquin's death toll was 35, with 33 of these deaths occurring from the sinking of the ill-fated cargo ship El Faro. Although Joaquin tracked far to the east of the United States, a non-tropical low over the Southeast tapped into the hurricane's moisture, causing record-shattering rains and flooding across North and South Carolina. Several areas of South Carolina saw accumulations exceeding the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year event. The subsequent floods inundated large areas of the state, killing 21 people and causing over $2 billion in damage.


Figure 9. Hurricane Joaquin as seen by the GOES-East satellite at 7:45 am EDT October 1, 2015. At the time, Joaquin was an intensifying Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds. The last position of the cargo ship El Faro, in the northwestern eyewall of Joaquin, is shown. Image credit: United States Navy and NOAA.

10) Record Central Pacific Hurricane Activity
Record warm ocean temperatures and record low wind shear in the Central Pacific (140-180°W) helped fuel a wildly active hurricane season. A few of the notable records set, courtesy of Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University:

- 8 named storms formed in the North Central Pacific, shattering the old record of 4 named storms set in 1982
- 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes either formed or tracked into the North Central Pacific from the Northeast Pacific in 2015. This broke the old records of 10 named storms (set in 1982 and 1997), 5 hurricanes (set in 1982 and 1994) and 3 major hurricanes (set in 1994).
- 127 Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) units were generated in the North Central Pacific, breaking old ACE record of 107 set in 1994.
- Record high SSTs and record low wind shear (since ~1980) were recorded when averaged from July-October across the North Central Pacific Main Development Region (7.5-20°N, 180- 140°W)


Figure 10. A mosaic of infrared satellite images from geostationary satellites showing all 15 tropical storms to reach or form in the Central Pacific basin in 2015. The images were obtained through the Naval Research Lab's Online archive. Miraculously, the Hawaiian Islands (outlined in aqua) seemed to have a zone of exclusion around them, and all the storms missed the islands. In 2014, Tropical Storm Iselle hit the Big Island and two other hurricanes came within 200 miles of the islands, and the busy Hawaiian hurricane season of 2014 was linked to climate change in a 2015 Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society annual attribution report on how extreme events may be influenced by climate change. Image credit: Kevin Kodama/National Weather Service Honolulu Office. H/T to wxhisft.com, where I originally saw this image posted.

The next post will be Thursday afternoon, when stats from NOAA summarizing the 2015 weather year in the U.S. will be available.

Jeff Masters (with Bob Henson helping out on the India floods section)

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills PWS .50
Riverside Airport .73
Rancho Jurupa PWS .74


Nice!

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
124 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

CAC059-065-073-062200-
/O.CON.KSGX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160106T2200Z/
ORANGE CA-RIVERSIDE CA-SAN DIEGO CA-
124 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM PST
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...RIVERSIDE AND NORTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTIES...

AT 118 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FALLBROOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS SEVERE
STORM WILL IMPACT WILDOMAR.

ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT WEST OF CARLSBAD.
THIS STORM WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN ENCINITAS AND
OCEANSIDE BY 140 PM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OCEANSIDE...VISTA...CARLSBAD...ENCINITAS...TEMECU LA...SAN MARCOS...
SAN CLEMENTE...SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO...FALLBROOK...WILDOMAR...SOLANA
BEACH...CAMP PENDLETON SOUTH...CANYON LAKE...CAMP PENDLETON NORTH...
LAKELAND VILLAGE...MURRIETA...VALLEY CENTER...LAKE SAN MARCOS...
HIDDEN MEADOWS AND BONSALL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3375 11707 3362 11686 3332 11689 3296 11727
3317 11735 3321 11741 3332 11749 3338 11759
3344 11764 3346 11771 3351 11775
TIME...MOT...LOC 2118Z 241DEG 13KT 3344 11731

$$
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
CAC059-065-071-073-070030-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FF.W.0006.160106T2134Z-160107T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
134 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
RIVERSIDE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
NORTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 430 PM PST

* AT 130 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA IN THE INLAND EMPIRE AND NORTHWEST SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BEGIN SHORTLY IN DRY
WASHED AND URBAN AREAS. BURN SCAR AREAS WILL POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
DEBRIS FLOWS. RAINFALL RATES OF 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
OCCURRING IN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
RIVERSIDE...SAN BERNARDINO...MORENO VALLEY...OCEANSIDE...
CARLSBAD...TEMECULA...VISTA...MISSION VIEJO...REDLANDS AND SAN
CLEMENTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.
Quoting 500. BayFog:

ANOTHER SEVERE STORM IS PRODUCING A WATERSPOUT WEST OF CARLSBAD.
THIS STORM WILL REACH THE IMMEDIATE COAST BETWEEN ENCINITAS AND
OCEANSIDE BY 140 PM.

Should make for some spectacular You Tube videos tonight.

Thankfully these waterspouts are usually pretty benign, but don't ever assume that.

wait till ya see the size of the hail yet too come
In New Hampshire This morning it was single digit temps, but it climbed up nicely into the lower forties. The temperature is dropping at a decent rate it seems. Now it is dark and twenty-nine degrees at the house. Not as exciting as California today. I will take low forties in January any day of this dark month.
Quoting 427. CybrTeddy:






The first Tropical Cyclone in the South Atlantic since Tropical Storm Anita (50 mph) in March 2010.
Storm 3 running totals:

Canoga Park is at 0.80" (nearest PWS]
Van Nuys is at 0.94"

Still have at least one more round incoming.

Quoting 508. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Too bad storm 4 is supposed to miss us to the north. Looks really juicy.
Quoting 510. TimSoCal:



Too bad storm 4 is supposed to miss us to the north. Looks really juicy.
maybe something break away from the tale of it and spin up
First Wave Passed by, waiting for the next Wave ...... .54 Indian Hills
by sunday morning there will be some good rain totals for the week in the sw as per 18z nam anyway


Storm # 3 Rainfall Update.........Last hour as of 2:09 0.18" Storm Total as of 2:09pm local 0.23"
We have red worms on radar again!Link
Invest 90C is well on its way to becoming Tropical Storm Pali. Non-stop tropical activity in the Central Pacific. #ElNino

Quoting 516. HurricaneHunterJoe:

We have red worms on radar again!Link

Yikes, about to get all Up and Nasty...
Quoting 465. beell:

Oklahoma 2015 Weather Highlights.




88 inches of rain? What the heck, that's amazing stuff, how does that happen when the average yearly rain is around 35 inches?

Where I live the annual average 56 inches but the wettest on record I think is 82 inches here.
Quoting 495. flsky:

Anyone here from St Louis on at the moment? I just got the word from a federal agency that I will be visiting there soon. How's the weather this time of year?
It's the Midwest, can be -20 to 50-60 this time of year:) When you coming? Can keep you updated as get close. Current 10 day has coldest of season Sun/Mon, then back into 30s/20s & dry by Tues.
Quoting 518. PedleyCA:


Yikes, about to get all Up and Nasty...


Does that have counter clockwise rotation?
Quoting 517. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 90C is well on its way to becoming Tropical Storm Pali. Non-stop tropical activity in the Central Pacific. #ElNino


Did you get my wumail?
Quoting 518. PedleyCA:


Yikes, about to get all Up and Nasty...
let me know right away if ya see hail the size of small melons
Quoting 507. pablosyn:



The first Tropical Cyclone in the South Atlantic since Tropical Storm Anita (50 mph) in March 2010.

Does this thing have a name? Is it going to strengthen?
Looks like a funnel cloud on radar?

Link
Quoting 525. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Keep the snow and rain coming!
Quoting 365. luvtogolf:

Central Florida was supposed to be cooler than normal in December and yet we had our warmest Dec ever. Haven't seen any epic rains (Dec '97 Tampa got 15''), no tornadoes, no flooding. Basically this el nino has been a non-event for us. Total bust forecast.


December and November was one of the driest stretches in Central FL on record as well. However the reasons have likely little or nothing to do with El Nino and mostly everything to due with a very large positive NAO/AO cycle. Models and current downward trend supports this will continue to decline. We are already seeing the results of that. As the endless heat and lack of rain is quickly being replaced by more frequent preiods of rain and cooler weather.

A negative AO/NAO is much more in supportive of El Nino's influence of rain and cooler temps in FL as Atlantic ridging anomalies break down and shift northwest.

There are no guarantees, but after a lot of data crunching and model scaring, I'm quite confident that January will continue to trend cooler and wetter on average as we go into the month.
It's the big red Tequilla/Mezcal worm coming to San Diego!
Quoting 526. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Looks like a funnel cloud on radar?

Link

sure does....
Central Pacific Hurricane Center:
For the central north Pacific.

1. Strong thunderstorms continue to develop in association with a slow-moving area of low pressure about 1550 miles southwest of Honolulu Hawaii. Although a significant increase in organization has not occurred over the past several hours, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development over the next couple of days as the system drifts toward the north and northwest.

* Formation chance through 48 hours, medium, 50 percent.
------------------
Joint Typhoon Warning Center:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 171.4W TO 7.2N 172.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W, APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061747Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE
. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATE 20 KNOT WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072030Z.//
Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Go to the NOAA Homepage
NWS Homepage
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
City, St
Go

Tornado Warning
TORNADO WARNING
CAC073-062330-
/O.NEW.KSGX.TO.W.0002.160106T2256Z-160106T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
256 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 330 PM PST

* AT 256 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
OVER TORREY PINES...OR OVER UNIVERSITY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
UNIVERSITY CITY...LA JOLLA...TORREY PINES...MIRAMAR...SORRENTO
VALLEY...DEL MAR HEIGHTS...MIRA MESA...CARMEL VALLEY AND TORREY
PRESERVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE
HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 11725 3290 11725 3294 11726 3296 11717
3286 11714 3285 11726
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 267DEG 31KT 3288 11723

$$

ALBRIGHT
Quoting 472. DCSwithunderscores:

A new study reportedly shows that global cereal yield losses due to droughts and heatwaves have increased from 6.7% to 13.7% over the last 50 years.

Link



So you're saying that droughts and heatwaves are cereal killers?

...

Thank you. Thank you very much. I'll be here all week. Be sure to tip the waitstaff.
Quoting 523. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

let me know right away if ya see hail the size of small melons


Considering the hail threat on the SPC page is nil as far as severe I doubt there'll be melon sized hail in SOCAL. Perhaps some is needed in Canada to knock common sense into a few.

Beautiful day in NE FL today. Low 50's, rain, and a bit of a breeze.
535. 882MB
Some real active weather occurring at the moment in Southern California. #El Nino

Quoting 526. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Looks like a funnel cloud on radar?

Link


It takes some impressive dynamic support and shear to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms with severe warnings and tornado warnings when dew points are near 50, low CAPE and a lack of deep moisture. It's always amazing to see strong storm systems force strong convection into the Southern CA with low dew points, low moisture levels, and very little CAPE that doesn't look any where close to supporting heavy rain and strong thunderstorms compared to what type of parameters are needed over here for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.

Storm # 3 Update: Rainfall last hour ending 3:09pm local 0.48 Storm Rainfall total 0.71
Quoting 519. Jedkins01:



88 inches of rain? What the heck, that's amazing stuff, how does that happen when the average yearly rain is around 35 inches?

Where I live the annual average 56 inches but the wettest on record I think is 82 inches here.


Based on interpolation of the annual rainfall in Webbers Falls (45.68 in) and McCurtain (47.90 in), I estimate the annual rainfall in Stigler to be about 47 in. Some places in OK get over 56 in, in the southeastern corner of the state.
Though, 88/47 in is till an impressive ratio!

US normals 1981-2010
The January 11 2016 cover of the New Yorker showing the ice skating rink at Rockefeller Center last Christmas ;)

Quoting 538. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm # 3 Update: Rainfall last hour ending 3:09pm local 0.48 Storm Rainfall total 0.71


Indian Hills PWS .55
Riverside Airport .76
Rancho Jurupa PWS .91
Tornado warnings have been canceled for SD county. Flash flood warnings in effect for most areas, including mine on the mesas.
Quoting 536. Jedkins01:



It takes some impressive dynamic support and shear to produce heavy rain and thunderstorms with severe warnings and tornado warnings when dew points are near 50, low CAPE and a lack of deep moisture. It's always amazing to see strong storm systems force strong convection into the Southern CA with low dew points, low moisture levels, and very little CAPE that doesn't look any where close to supporting heavy rain and strong thunderstorms compared to what type of parameters are needed over here for heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.



Proximity of a strong jet helps.
Quoting 527. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Keep the snow and rain coming!

Query: what site provides these radar images as gif files?
Quoting 507. pablosyn:



The first Tropical Cyclone in the South Atlantic since Tropical Storm Anita (50 mph) in March 2010.

Strangely, it doesn't appear on the Floater page, nor on WU's map.
Numerous lightning strikes showing up in SoCal, but also a few showing up in a line of cells moving thru the Diablo Range southeast of SF Bay. More showers popping over the ocean, moving in on a west southwest flow with plenty of cold air aloft.
Evening all . Anybody paying attention to the low pressure system moving through the Bahamas? We have had a fair amount of rain today along with some rather windy conditions, which led my dad to ask if there is a January hurricane on record for the Bahamas ...

:-)

I admit it is rather different from the typical frontal trough induced precipitation.......
Quoting 539. ChateauChalon:



Based on interpolation of the annual rainfall in Webbers Falls (45.68 in) and McCurtain (47.90 in), I estimate the annual rainfall in Stigler to be about 47 in. Some places in OK get over 56 in, in the southeastern corner of the state.
Though, 88/47 in is till an impressive ratio!

US normals 1981-2010



Wow, didn't realize the southeast portion was that much wetter than OKC on average, I though most of OK got about the same on average as OKC, thanks for the correction, I wasn't aware!

Definitely still an impressive difference!

I wouldn't expect rainfall to actually vary that much in areas with not much elevation change. But then again, there's also a surprising amount of variation here in Florida. All rain gauge sites in the Tampa Bay viewing area are between 53 and 60 inches for YTD averages, but for some weird reason, Tampa International Airport averages only 46 inches, making it notably drier than surrounding rain gauge sites, including other reporting sites around the city of Tampa that read 53-56 inches.
Tampa International airport is notable less than every rain gauge the NWS monitors in FL except in the Keys and by a lot in most cases, how weird is that?

Also, it's weird how southeast FL averages 60-72 inches YTD depending on location, while the SW FL coast is around 54-58 inches, and the Keys just below average less than 50.
Quoting 510. TimSoCal:



Too bad storm 4 is supposed to miss us to the north. Looks really juicy.

It won't be missing us, nor the Sierras:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
207 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE
COAST. MAINLY DRY FRIDAY BUT STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. BRIEF DRY SPELL SUNDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 528. Jedkins01:



December and November was one of the driest stretches in Central FL on record as well. However the reasons have likely little or nothing to do with El Nino and mostly everything to due with a very large positive NAO/AO cycle. Models and current downward trend supports this will continue to decline. We are already seeing the results of that. As the endless heat and lack of rain is quickly being replaced by more frequent preiods of rain and cooler weather.

A negative AO/NAO is much more in supportive of El Nino's influence of rain and cooler temps in FL as Atlantic ridging anomalies break down and shift northwest.

There are no guarantees, but after a lot of data crunching and model scaring, I'm quite confident that January will continue to trend cooler and wetter on average as we go into the month.
Dunno about Central FL , but we are already seeing a cooler wetter trend to the SE and east.


It's funny, this system is producing heavy rain in CA, but the amount of available moisture is about as low as we have behind winter cold frontal passage in the southeast. It's always interesting how synoptic forcing combined with cold air aloft and shear, as well as elevation change can force that much heavy rainfall in an air mass with not much total water vapor.
Quoting 553. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Dry as a bad biscuit, how do we manage to get so much....lol

Cyclogenic region for the parade of systems across the Pacific off the east coast of Japan. Strong warm advection cloud shield indicating the presence of a 240 mph jet max. Inflow to the westerlies from the ITCZ visible to the south.
It would be so cool if somehow we could get Pali and Alex on the same day. Pali is likely, Alex, not so much, but that would be really cool.
Quoting 554. PedleyCA:


Dry as a bad biscuit, how do we manage to get so much....lol

Those little wisps can add up, especially if they keep coming every other day or so.
Storm # 3 Update: Rainfall last hour ending 4:09pm local 0.30" Storm Total Rainfall ending 4:09 pm local 1.01"
Quoting 560. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm # 3 Update: Rainfall last hour ending 4:09pm local 0.30" Storm Total Rainfall ending 4:09 pm local 1.01"


.58 here

Still more behind this.... nice orange color on Wundermap
This is a wind picture of two big circular systems in the northern hemisphere right now.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-154.32,83.70,409

We only need one more, then we'll be ready for Day After Tommorow.

http://youtu.be/4oHjxpMb7oU

I love disaster porn!
564. 882MB
Wow, 90C looks incredible on satellite. I think its one of the biggest invest I have seen so far since I started tracking storms and their origins. Pretty decent structure and appearance, for a developing storm. Also a TCFA was just issued for 90C.









Quoting 554. PedleyCA:


Dry as a bad biscuit, how do we manage to get so much....lol


We are the chosen ones....lol
Venturing outside the front door at my office was a bad idea. Wind is picking up as the next round of heavier rain approaches, blew the current light rain right into my face as I'm recovering from a sinus infection.
From http://www.climatecentral.org/news/

Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt, by John Upton, 01/05/16:

Link


Wow, 90C looks incredible on satellite. I also think its one of the biggest invest I have seen so far since I started tracking storms and their origins. Pretty decent structure and appearance, for a developing storm.


If this were Sept..........it would be YIKES! It being January............WHOA!
Probably the last round, but it's a doozy.

Hello, everybody.




What I'm looking at in this 18z GFS doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. IF it verifies at all, does this look like a major crippling heavy wet snow event for SE Texas, or a minor one?
Quoting 570. pureet1948:

Hello, everybody.




What I'm looking at in this 18z GFS doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. IF it verifies at all, does this look like a major crippling snow event for SE Texas, or a minor one?


DOOMSDAY! Just as you imagined, right?
Quoting 493. Patrap:

I remember a frontal system that came into Southern Cal in 81' as I was stationed at El Toro with MAG-13 at the time. Was a long evening of N to South vivid lightening and torrential rain.

Reminded me of fall in NOLA.


That was an awesome storm, yep. (I was in Irvine.)
Quoting 497. BayFog:

Our Sierra reservoirs are filling up nicely now. And the snow is piling up in the High Sierra. A ways to go, but a very good start.


I'm actually looking at seed catalogs now. (Like, NOW. They're on the chair to my right.) Last year they went right into the trash.
Quoting 573. nonblanche:



I'm actually looking at seed catalogs now. (Like, NOW. They're on the chair to my right.) Last year they went right into the trash.


Seed catalog from Amsterdam?
Quoting 569. TimSoCal:

Probably the last round, but it's a doozy.




WOWWZA! Looks like one huge tornader!
Quoting 510. TimSoCal:



Too bad storm 4 is supposed to miss us to the north. Looks really juicy.


Don't bogart the ULLs, man.
Quoting 571. HurricaneHunterJoe:



DOOMSDAY! Just as you imagined, right?



Not exactly, HurricaneHunterJoe. But the Houston metro isn't exactly designed for a major snow event and I'd like to know if that's EXACTLY what the GFS I8z is sniffing out.
I'm pretty sure most on here know about Soo Cal's meager yearly rainfall averages. But just in case some do not, the 3-5 inches of rain received the last 2 days equate to 30-50% of San Diego's Annual rainfall of 10". Los Angeles receives a bit more, about 15" a year. More storms on the way!
Quoting 574. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Seed catalog from Amsterdam?


So far, Burgess and Stark Bros. Burgess is slightly more sketchy than Gurney's, the kind where invasive aliens come from. But I have just that perfect spot for D. metel, and I look forward to the ranting coming from next door "SOMEONE'S CATTLE MIGHT EAT THAT DO YOU KNOW WHAT THAT IS????!!!111ONE!"

(She only keeps a meat steer going since she kicked out her ex who kept a dozen or so head that got out now and then.)
Quoting 577. pureet1948:




Not exactly, HurricaneHunterJoe. But the Houston metro isn't exactly designed for a major snow event and I'd like to know if that's what the GFS is sniffing out.


That forecast is for the 19th! 2 weeks away! Wait til it has the same forecast at the 4-5 day time frame and at the same time contrast the GFS forecast with the ECMWF and if they both agree.....plan accordingly!
Quoting 580. HurricaneHunterJoe:



That forecast is for the 19th! 2 weeks away! Wait til it has the same forecast at the 4-5 day time frame and at the same time contrast the GFS forecast with the ECMWF and if they both agree.....plan accordingly!



Aha! As usual, it's got no chance of being right, huh?
Quoting 581. pureet1948:




Aha! As usual, it's got no chance of being right, huh?


Not Likely, just a waste of time...
Quoting 509. TimSoCal:

Storm 3 running totals:

Canoga Park is at 0.80" (nearest PWS]
Van Nuys is at 0.94"

Still have at least one more round incoming.




Updated totals, with nothing much coming this way on radar:

Canoga Park PWS: 1.02" (2-day total 3.01")
Van Nuys Airport: 1.16" (2-day total 2.47")

Good rain totals either way. Looks like the next storm arrives late Saturday.
584. 882MB
This image needs to be updated, if you know what I'm talking about. ;)

It should be updated soon, maybe next morning.
L. A. TV Traffic helicopter guy talking about congestion due to rain says
this gets old after a couple days.

And they say we are spoiled.
Quoting 554. PedleyCA:


Dry as a bad biscuit, how do we manage to get so much....lol



Lapse rates and synoptic forcing make up for everything. Which is why I remind people that deep moisture doesn't directly correlate to heavy rain, and a lack of rain doesn't necessarily mean the air is dry, and rainfall, even heavy rainfall like in this case doesn't necessarily mean the air has high moisture content.

For example, when people blame "dry air" for a precip hole in a tropical cyclone, rarely is the air actually even close to being dry. In fact, usually dry air entrainment is actually air that is quite moist. It's just that even if a thin layer of lower RH and sinking air is pulled in, it can lead to convective collapse. This is because the physics of warm core cyclone development reveal that such systems require a fragile balance of saturation in a warm column, which is harder to maintain than a cool one as I mentioned above. For that reasons, it takes for less hostile conditions to completely destroy convection in a purely tropical environment, than one that is dynamic from cold cored lows.

Cold core systems are often much more robust in origin from the Pacific source, so they can generate strong convection easier in more hostile conditions to convection and heavy rain like those found on the Pacific west coast.

Basically a colder air mass requires less moisture to produce rain, mainly one that cools rapidly with height given the physical relationship between phase change and density. A more dense air condensates easier with less water than a hot one. Obviously the ideal is to have warm moist air mass being lifted into a colder one. But a relatively dry and cool air mass can still lead to a lot of condensation and rain if the temperature cools fast enough with height, and there is enough forced lift . Even an air mass with low level temps in the 40's with dew points in the 30's can have heavy thunderstorms if temperatures cool rapidly enough with height and if there is strong enough dynamic/synoptic support.
L. A. TV Traffic helicopter guy talking about congestion due to rain says
this gets old after a couple days.

And they say we are spoiled.
It is getting interesting with Invest 90C slowly intensifying out there.
Storm # 3 Rainfall Update: Rainfall last hour ending 5:09 pm local 0.19" Storm Total thus far ending 5:09 pm local 1.20"
Arctic Sea Ice struggling with all the warm air near the north pole right now.

Figure 2. The graph above shows Arctic sea ice extent as of January 5, 2016, along with daily ice extent data for four previous years. 2015 to 2016 is shown in blue, 2014 to 2015 in green, 2013 to 2014 in orange, 2012 to 2013 in brown, and 2011 to 2012 in purple. The 1981 to 2010 average is in dark gray. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.||Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center|High-resolution image
Quoting 582. PedleyCA:



Not Likely, just a waste of time...



Thank you for your response. But why is the GFS acting up that way?
SST anomaly! Very above average water temp that far north.



Quoting 593. Tornado6042008X:

Arctic Sea Ice struggling with all the warm air near the north pole right now.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2016/01/F igure21-350x280.png


A blown up version from Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Forum




Lowest on record for this date.

Note the last 5 days have been almost flat.
Last 72 hour Rainfall and Snowfall Amounts from NWS San Diego

Link
Quoting 474. Gearsts:

Scott is talking about the CFS for next SEPTEMBER.


Is the CFS a bad model?
600. Gaara
Quoting 594. pureet1948:




Thank you for your response. But why is the GFS acting up that way?


I think the main issue is just picking one run of the GFS, which has been awful in the long-term, and trying to infer anything from it. After 120 hours, you really need to look for features that persist from run to run before you can really have any confidence in any model.
Quoting 599. CaribBoy:



Is the CFS a bad model?


I don't know about reliability...but Scott's putting too much weight in an El Nino being here this fall. There's the Spring Predictability Barrier, and any forecasts past that are usually held to a lesser standard. Any forecasts showing an El Nino being present in the fall at this point in time should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Quoting 599. CaribBoy:



Is the CFS a bad model?
CFS is a coin flip for a fall El nino.
604. OCF
NWS at Long Beach airport is claiming a mere 0.36" today. Sure seemed like a lot more than that where I was, which was only about 5 miles away.
Storm # 3 Rainfall Update: Rainfall last hour ending at 6:09 pm local 0.04" Storm Totals ending 6:09 pm local 1.24" Rain has ended for now.....showers forecast overnight.
Quoting 604. OCF:

NWS at Long Beach airport is claiming a mere 0.36" today. Sure seemed like a lot more than that where I was, which was only about 5 miles away.


You should think about getting a CoCoRaHS rain gauge then and begin reporting.

There was one morning where I recorded 0.5 inches of rain, and a man about 5 miles to my southeast did an emergency report of 7" and he triggered a flash flood warning. Turned out that flash flooding did occur, causing severe water damage to a church in his area.

You'd be surprised how much rainfall can change over a distance. And after a while of having a gauge, you get the idea of how much rain actually falls. I've had severe thunderstorms with driving rain only put down a quarter inch.
Quoting 606. Astrometeor:



You should think about getting a CoCoRaHS rain gauge then and begin reporting.

There was one morning where I recorded 0.5 inches of rain, and a man about 5 miles to my southeast did an emergency report of 7" and he triggered a flash flood warning. Turned out that flash flooding did occur, causing severe water damage to a church in his area.

You'd be surprised how much rainfall can change over a distance. And after a while of having a gauge, you get the idea of how much rain actually falls. I've had severe thunderstorms with driving rain only put down a quarter inch.


June 2014, 5.5" of rain in three hours and 4" in an hour at my Maryland home. Flash flooding, water rescues.. damage to my own house.

4 miles NNE my rental garden 0.5". It had been dry and 0.5" was not enough.. I had to water it the next day.
Quoting 577. pureet1948:




Not exactly, HurricaneHunterJoe. But the Houston metro isn't exactly designed for a major snow event and I'd like to know if that's EXACTLY what the GFS I8z is sniffing out.


There have been plowable snows in Houston before (of course not plowed). Most recent was Christmas 2004.
Quoting 570. pureet1948:

Hello, everybody.




What I'm looking at in this 18z GFS doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. IF it verifies at all, does this look like a major crippling heavy wet snow event for SE Texas, or a minor one?


It's two weeks out. I'd wait until it's three days out before worrying. If it verifies, stock up on supplies three days prior (and two days before everyone else) and be prepared.. a snowstorm won't kill you at home in the 21'st century if you're reasonably careful.
610. bwi
It's already helping to maintain a strong westerly wind pulse along and south of the equator, which all other things equal would seem to help prolong El Nino.


Quoting 564. 882MB:

Wow, 90C looks incredible on satellite. I think its one of the biggest invest I have seen so far since I started tracking storms and their origins. Pretty decent structure and appearance, for a developing storm. Also a TCFA was just issued for 90C.










looks like the GFS has dropped the snow storm on the most recent run.Speaking of snow D.C has not recorded a single trace making this the latest winter on record to do so
Link

Snow drought is a understatement so far.lol
As I drove through smoke from a forest fire a few weeks ago, I thought about a friend in Singapore dealing with the same. Good to see this story. My local forest fire was smaller but still affected my climate and closed a few businesses; how many millions were impacted in SE Asia. Stay safe from fires and smoke.
Quoting 611. washingtonian115:

looks like the GFS has dropped the snow storm on the most recent run.Speaking of snow D.C has not recorded a single trace making this the latest winter on record to do so
Link

Snow drought is a understatement so far.lol


The Mid-Atlantic is not allowed to have a snowstorm until I get back up there on the 18th. ;)
Quoting 608. georgevandenberghe:



There have been plowable snows in Houston before (of course not plowed). Most recent was Christmas 2004.



My concern is a Feb. 3, 2011 snow/ice storm redux. Might be more than we can handle, if so.
Quoting 609. georgevandenberghe:



It's two weeks out. I'd wait until it's three days out before worrying. If it verifies, stock up on supplies three days prior (and two days before everyone else) and be prepared.. a snowstorm won't kill you at home in the 21'st century if you're reasonably careful.


Based on this map this is highly unlikely since its showing snow in the Florida Panhandle.

Eric
Storm # 3 Storm Totals thus far 1.24" Rain has stopped.....local news saying alot more coming overnight and tomorrow.......no rain here for over an hour.
Quoting 611. washingtonian115:

looks like the GFS has dropped the snow storm on the most recent run.Speaking of snow D.C has not recorded a single trace making this the latest winter on record to do so
Link

Snow drought is a understatement so far.lol


Has Washington ever gone an entire winter with no measurable snow?
Another storm cell nearby, might give us a glancing blow.

Quoting 617. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Has Washington ever gone an entire winter with no measurable snow?
The closet would be 97-98 and 72-73 where only 0.01 was recorded in D.C.
Melbourne on the east coast of FL somehow got over 1.30 over the past several hours from low topped showers in an environment that is pretty dry while there is sinking aloft. Weird stuff.
Total daily precip in my gage is a whopping .05 inches of melted snow. Whoopie.
622. OCF
Quoting 618. TimSoCal:

Another storm cell nearby, might give us a glancing blow.

Yes, that has made for another decent shower in Long Beach. I can hear it.
Quoting 604. OCF:

NWS at Long Beach airport is claiming a mere 0.36" today. Sure seemed like a lot more than that where I was, which was only about 5 miles away.


A couple years ago, during the summer rain season in the Tampa Bay area, a thunderstorm dumped over 3.25 in a couple hours at an official obs station only 2 miles behind where my parents live. It was moving in their direction, yet the rain gauge at my parents house got only 0.18, as it passed another gauge a few miles west got over 2 inches. Rainfall can vary a lot over short distances when it comes to convection and thunderstorms, and elevation change can impact that even more. You may indeed have had a lot more. Definitely look into buying a gauge, there's not much more satisfying as meteorology lover as having my own local data to be assured of during weather events.
Looks like scattered showers inbound for much of California

Quoting 618. TimSoCal:

Another storm cell nearby, might give us a glancing blow.




Showers getting some nice lift once hitting land increasing rainfall rates.
Quoting 619. washingtonian115:

The closet would be 97-98 and 72-73 where only 0.01 was recorded in D.C.

The recorded amount was 0.1" but who's counting. Point is.. virtually none!

I was in high school for the first of these. Disappointing (but the following December we got 6-10" December 17, 1973). As an adult with a busy life and three kids under two I was happy not to have to deal with snow the second of these winters
627. MahFL
Is the moist green line going to hold up to hit CA ?

Quoting 609. georgevandenberghe:



It's two weeks out. I'd wait until it's three days out before worrying. If it verifies, stock up on supplies three days prior (and two days before everyone else) and be prepared.. a snowstorm won't kill you at home in the 21'st century if you're reasonably careful.
In addition, neither the ECMWF or CMC is showing this scenario. One out of three doesn't usually add up to a crippling snowstorm anywhere, although there is that Bad Moon rising thing in Houston...
Quoting 594. pureet1948:




Thank you for your response. But why is the GFS acting up that way?


This solution is within the envelope of possibilites (still will likely not happen). The pattern depicted has verified
before and will again. But most likely not this time.
Quoting 600. Gaara:



I think the main issue is just picking one run of the GFS, which has been awful in the long-term, and trying to infer anything from it. After 120 hours, you really need to look for features that persist from run to run before you can really have any confidence in any model.


If most of the ensemble members show the same thing or at least, a lot do, that suggests a much higher probability that it will happen.
Quoting 599. CaribBoy:



Is the CFS a bad model?
How well did it do in predicting the evolution of an El Nino in 2013/14? That should give you your answer.
The color coding is wrong according to the color key. They have 60% as red, even though it should be orange.



Getting a little more now.... .68"
San Diego Radar went from 2 showers to a blowup over a lot of the county...they just popped up over land.

Link
Just had a shower at my house.
Getting a nice shower up here too. On and off all day and now into the evening.

Quoting 613. Astrometeor:



The Mid-Atlantic is not allowed to have a snowstorm until I get back up there on the 18th. ;)
Hurry up and get back here!
I can only hope storm #4(N. of Hawaii) is still this moist by the time it reaches us.

Quoting 632. Astrometeor:

The color coding is wrong according to the color key. They have 60% as red, even though it should be orange.




Hey! They fixed it! Woot.
Quoting 498. BayFog:

"A mosaic of infrared satellite images from geostationary satellites showing all 15 tropical storms to reach or form in the Central Pacific basin in 2015. The images were obtained through the Naval Research Lab's Online archive. Miraculously, the Hawaiian Islands (outlined in aqua) seemed to have a zone of exclusion around them, and all the storms missed the islands."

Evidently Dr. Masters is not yet familiar with the Magic Force Field that Mr. Sar informs me is provided by the Magic Eight Ball Co.


That's correct, and the Operations Officer of The Magic 8 Ball Company International (soon to be known as M8BCARP once the merger with HAARP has been completed) has informed me that the people of Hawaii chipped in together to pay the Big Bucks to have the patented Magic 8 Ball Company International Storm Termination System (STS) installed. It succeeded in protecting the residents of that fair state from the assault of all 15 storms that otherwise would have nearly obliterated all the beach umbrellas on Waikiki, not to mention the plastic chair damage. This patented technology will soon be offered to Florida to protect it against upcoming hurricanes. Although I really can't give any details, let's just say the MB8CARP STS system has been undergoing prototype testing around Orlando for the past 10 years or so, paid for by a large mouse (or so I'm told), and you know how that has turned out so far. Look for an introductory price offer for the rest of the state on the internet soon.
Quoting 640. sar2401:

That's correct, and the Operations Officer of The Magic 8 Ball Company International (soon to be known as M8BCARP once the merger with HAARP has been completed) has informed me that the people of Hawaii chipped in together to pay the Big Bucks to have the patented Magic 8 Ball Company International Storm Termination System (STS) installed. It succeeded in protecting the residents of that fair state from the assault of all 15 storms that otherwise would have nearly obliterated all the beach umbrellas on Waikiki, not to mention the plastic chair damage. This patented technology will soon be offered to Florida to protect it against upcoming hurricanes. Although I really can't give any details, let's just say the MB8CARP STS system has been undergoing prototype testing around Orlando for the past 10 years or so, paid for by a large mouse (or so I'm told), and you know how that has turned out so far. Look for an introductory price offer for the rest of the state on the internet soon.


Will they compete successfully with the shower curtain company?
Quoting 639. Astrometeor:



Hey! They fixed it! Woot.
I can't even tell the difference between red and orange. Thank goodness they still use actual numbers. 8>)
Well, what an odd coincidence...

Jon Passantino @passantino 21m 21 minutes ago
Epicenter of tonight's magnitude-4.8 earthquake in OK appears to be an oil well site

Quoting 635. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just had a shower at my house.



are you all nic and clean now dont for get the bar of sop lol
Quoting 635. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Just had a shower at my house.


An old friend in Ocean Beach has had her photo and video shown on KUSI, local Fox and TWC apparently. So if you saw a photo of a paddleboarder, rowing his surfboard down a street in OB, that was hers :)

Another had a photo he said was of Palm Springs, with some major flooding too.


From the last blog, Vis0, if you find some of those pics, would love to see them! But once back at uni and work combo next week, will only be on here sporadically, so might miss them, so WUmail me if you would.

As for weather here, as Barb has noted many times, just rainstorm after rainstorm in the Uk. So far, forecast to get some arctic air next week though. Has gone from snow, to clear but below freezing, to ice pellets in the last 24 hours for Mon/Tues/Weds haha So, will probably just rain in the end :P haha
Quoting 643. wxgeek723:

Well, what an odd coincidence...

Jon Passantino @passantino 21m 21 minutes ago
Epicenter of tonight's magnitude-4.8 earthquake in OK appears to be an oil well site




Almost makes one think that injecting high pressure chemicals designed to fracture rocks at depth into a fault zone to push oil out isn't the best idea.
Quoting 641. SunnyDaysFla:



Will they compete successfully with the shower curtain company?
That shower curtain company file Chapter 11 several years ago. No one can successfully compete with the Magic 8 Ball Company International. Just asked the people who don't pony up the dough for Magic 8 Ball protection next year at this time.
Quoting 646. TimSoCal:



Almost makes one think that injecting high pressure chemicals designed to fracture rocks at depth into a fault zone to push oil out isn't the best idea.
Although I'd think it was more likely a natural gas well rather than oil, but there's no doubt hydraulic fracturing in areas with active earthquake faults leads to more earthquakes. How big they might get is still not well understood, another reason to proceed with caution.
Is 90C the remains of TD Nine-C, or is it a seperate entity? Would be interesting if it is.
650. OCF
Thunder! Don't hear thunder all that often in coastal SoCal, but a nice big rumble just now.
Sar's on a roll tonight. Must be feeling better after his trip earlier this week.

The forecast for rain here in sw fl was a bust so far.
Storm # 3 Storm Totals so far as of 10:09pm local 1.29"
Quoting 647. sar2401:

That shower curtain company file Chapter 11 several years ago. No one can successfully compete with the Magic 8 Ball Company International. Just asked the people who don't pony up the dough for Magic 8 Ball protection next year at this time.

Dang---I suppose the 20 year warranty is now worthless.
Showers training over Riverside and Northern San Diego County, it has been raining again :)

San Diego Radar

Link
Quoting 654. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Showers training over Riverside and Northern San Diego County, it has been raining again :)

San Diego Radar

Link


Yep, another round headed my way as well. Nice easy listening for when I head to bed in a bit.

Storm # 3 Rainfall Totals 1.32" thru 11:09 pm PST only .03 last hour, but keep em coming.
Still up Ped?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST WED JAN 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS...LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...THEN BECOME GRADUALLY LESS NUMEROUS AND LESS INTENSE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
MOUNTAINS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY ABOVE 4500 FEET...THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. VERY LARGE SURF WILL
OCCUR AT THE BEACHES THURSDAY...THEN START TO DECREASE FRIDAY. MORE
SHOWERS COULD OCCUR SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH FAIR WARMER
WEATHER LIKELY RETURNING FOR A COUPLE DAYS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUED IN MOST AREAS AT MID EVENING...WITH
LOCALLY BUT FAIRLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IN PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY THE
PAST HOUR. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY BROAD WITH
TRAINING VORT MAXES ON THE SOUTH SIDE...MOVING THROUGH SO-CAL
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOR CONTINUOUS SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...BUT ALSO PERIODS WITH
LIMITED PRECIPITATION. THE VORT MAX TRAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN BAJA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE
PRECIPITATION OVER SO-CAL GRADUALLY. AFTER THURSDAY...MOST OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE OVER SAN DIEGO COUNTY WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS
FURTHER NORTH. WHILE WE SHOULD NOT REPEAT THE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
EVENTS OF TUESDAY AND TODAY...WE STILL HAVE SOME THREAT OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SOILS
ARE SATURATED AS ABOUT HALF OUR FORECAST AREAS HAS HAD RAINFALL
BETWEEN 2.5 AND 5 INCHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO 4500 FEET
OVERNIGHT...SO ABOVE THAT LEVEL THE FLOOD THREAT WILL CHANGE (IF IT
HAS NOT ALREADY) TO THE SNOW THREAT...AND SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY
HAD 2 FEET OF SNOW. 1 ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW COULD FALL IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER RIDGES AND UPPER WEST SLOPES...AND THE FOCUS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ON THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY VERSUS FURTHER NORTH.
sar,did you take out the sailboat?
Storm # 3 Last Hour ending 12:09 am PST .08 Storm total 1.40"
Storm # 3 Last Hour ending 1:09am PST .09" Storm total 1.49"
Storm # 3 Last Hour Ending 02:09am PST .13" Storm Total 1.62"
Even colder today. -42F in Northern Finland and I am guessing the mean temperature will be around -40F since it's still -41F there at 1pm. Tonight it's going to be -20 to -27F in Southern Finland which means tomorrow will be one of the coldest mean temperatures I can even remember here.. Good thing it's getting warm this weekend with highs at 0-20F :)
Storm # 3 Last Hour Ending 309am PST .03" Storm Total 1.65"
666. MahFL
Well the green monster is still there :

Hmm... there is a 90Q now. It is being tracked as a subtropical depression by the Hydrographic Center of the Brazilian Navy. Should it strengthen into a subtropical storm, it will be named Deni.
Quoting 666. MahFL:

Well the green monster is still there :




Might be for Saturday
Storm # 3 Last Hour Ending 4:09am PST .09" Storm Total 1.74"
vibrant system just east of florida
672. MahFL
Quoting 671. islander101010:

vibrant system just east of florida


Aye, the fish storm.
673. MahFL
Heavy rain over San Diego :

Quoting 664. Arcticstuff:

Even colder today. -42F in Northern Finland and I am guessing the mean temperature will be around -40F since it's still -41F there at 1pm. Tonight it's going to be -20 to -27F in Southern Finland which means tomorrow will be one of the coldest mean temperatures I can even remember here.. Good thing it's getting warm this weekend with highs at 0-20F :)


0-20 F eh? You'll be going shirtless.!

Wow, look at 90C's convection! And Navy site has 90C as 01C. Isn't it the earliest tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific?
CP, 01, 2016010712, , BEST, 0, 37N, 1713W, 30, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 270, 90, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, ONE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, cpA02016 to cp012016
Quoting 645. mitthbevnuruodo:

br>As for weather here, as Barb has noted many times, just rainstorm after rainstorm in the Uk. So far, forecast to get some arctic air next week though. Has gone from snow, to clear but below freezing, to ice pellets in the last 24 hours for Mon/Tues/Weds haha So, will probably just rain in the end :P haha

I always view these UK snow forecasts with a smile . . . nine times out of ten it will be rain. We shall see how it develops. Although you are "up north" so will have more chance of it happening!
Quoting 631. sar2401:

How well did it do in predicting the evolution of an El Nino in 2013/14? That should give you your answer.


I believe that's the same model that predicts every month will be 4 standard deviations above normal precipitation for FL. That model seems to perform poorly in every facet.
Quoting 664. Arcticstuff:

Even colder today. -42F in Northern Finland and I am guessing the mean temperature will be around -40F since it's still -41F there at 1pm. Tonight it's going to be -20 to -27F in Southern Finland which means tomorrow will be one of the coldest mean temperatures I can even remember here.. Good thing it's getting warm this weekend with highs at 0-20F :)

Welcome in the weather world of extremes!

Source.

Chilly Sweden brrr-eaks another winter record
The Local (Sweden) Published: 07 Jan 2016 12:08 GMT 01:00
Just when you thought Sweden could not get any colder it broke its second record in two days with the mercury dropping to a freezing -42.8C (-45F) in the far north and chilly temperatures across the country. ...

Meanwhile all time record heat at some stations in South Africa. Black spot on the map above at the end of the animation belongs to Mmabatho Airport/South Africa with an (unofficial!) all time record of 105.8F (41C; previous all time record 102.6F in 2011).

Jo'burg temperature hits record high as South Africa drought persists
Source: Reuters - Thu, 7 Jan 2016 12:30 GMT

Drought is catastrophic for SA's maize production
by Ed Stoddard, Januar 07 2016, 05:55

CPC's current Africa Hazard Outlook (pdf)

Photo: Tore Meek / NTB scanpix

Rare light phenomenon spotted in Oslo skies
The Local (Norway) Published: 07 Jan 2016 10:17 GMT 01:00
Several places in Oslo witnessed rare and beautiful light pillars in the sky on Wednesday night.
"This is an optical phenomenon. Ice crystals in the air reflected light from the city, forming thin light pillars," Terje Alsvik Walloe from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) said. ...


Light pillars also in Stockholm/Sweden.
684. MahFL
Quoting 683. barbamz:





Wow, I never saw those before.

El Nino Rains Brings Flash Flooding San Diego 06 01 2016
by:Extreme Weather
Miami-Dade County Shores Up for the Rising Tide
Southeast Florida Develops Plans to Address Sea Level Rise and Conserve Water
Good Morning. Here is the latest pic (and formation alert for 90C) from the JTWC......................Yes, looks to be the earliest storm of the year in this region:

WTPN21 PHNC 062030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 171.4W TO 7.2N 172.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.3N 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061747Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA INDICATE 20 KNOT WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM WITH
ISOLATED 25 KNOT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072030Z.//
NNNN

Finally, the bigger picture in the Pacific (including Ula in the Southern Hemisphere):
Quoting 689. weathermanwannabe:




It's not in any hurry to go anywhere.
Quoting 683. barbamz:


Photo: Tore Meek / NTB scanpix

Rare light phenomenon spotted in Oslo skies
The Local (Norway) Published: 07 Jan 2016 10:17 GMT 01:00
Several places in Oslo witnessed rare and beautiful light pillars in the sky on Wednesday night.
"This is an optical phenomenon. Ice crystals in the air reflected light from the city, forming thin light pillars," Terje Alsvik Walloe from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) said. ...


Light pillars also in Stockholm/Sweden.


I saw that when driving past Uppsala north of Stockholm yesterday and wondered what it was. First thought there was a lightshow but then saw all lights were shining upwards.

It was -20C (-4F) at the time and ice crystals in the air. Coool effect


Quoting 691. fmbill:



It's not in any hurry to go anywhere.


And it looks a lot more powerful than it actually is at the moment; I am really surprised the the latest advisory is only showing winds in the 18-23 knot range........................Looks like a low burn but with lots of potential but the moderate shear is currently keeping it in check.
Just about everybody in the US getting some precipitation over the next several days...with California the winner for highest total.


Here is the shear over 90C per CIMMS:


Quoting 693. weathermanwannabe:


And it looks a lot more powerful than it actually is at the moment; I am really surprised the the latest advisory is only showing winds in the 18-23 knot range........................Looks like a low burn but with lots of potential but the moderate shear is currently keeping it in check.


The GFDL really wants to deepen the central pressure over the next few days.

882mb (the blogger) was right. Mighty big system

PS IF you don't ever hear from me again after this week, you know it was Mrs. G who one the Powerball.


Current airmass pic of Europe shows low Britta in the west (donating some rain for my place near Frankfurt right now) and low Anneliese in the Eastern Mediterranean. Looks like some havoc for the Blac Sea area, Turkey and especially those poor folks in the war stricken regions of the northern Middle East, according to the loop below:

It will be a good watch; basically the equivalent of a powerful Pacific fish storm that will hopefully not threaten any land areas.
703. elioe
Quoting 664. Arcticstuff:

Even colder today. -42F in Northern Finland and I am guessing the mean temperature will be around -40F since it's still -41F there at 1pm. Tonight it's going to be -20 to -27F in Southern Finland which means tomorrow will be one of the coldest mean temperatures I can even remember here.. Good thing it's getting warm this weekend with highs at 0-20F :)


As far as I remember, this is the coldest week since February 2011. But then, temperatures were about 5 degrees Celsius colder than now, so I guess this is bearable...
Guess it was already posted somewhere in here, but it's now all over the international news:
California Declares State Of Emergency Over L.A. Methane Leak
The leak, first reported in October, has spewed up to 1,200 tons of methane daily.
01/06/2016 04:53 pm ET | Updated 11 hours ago
Quoting 692. farupnorth:



I saw that when driving past Uppsala north of Stockholm yesterday and wondered what it was. First thought there was a lightshow but then saw all lights were shining upwards.

It was -20C (-4F) at the time and ice crystals in the air. Coool effect



At least you get to watch something pretty while your nose gets frostbitten. I had to shovel snow in Cleveland once when it was -18F. The Old Man told me that the white area on the tip of my pinkie finger was no big deal. I have no feeling in the tip of that finger even today. I believe it was then, when I was a mere lad of 12 or so, that I made the decision I would never again live in any place that got down to -18 and had snow. So, far, I'm one for two. :-)
Woo Hoo, they are predicting 12" ~ 18" of snow Saturday nite thru Monday in Northern Michigan. I guess winter is finally here lol. About time, only about 5" on the ground right now.
Quoting 704. barbamz:

Guess it was already posted somewhere in here, but it's now all over the international news:
California Declares State Of Emergency Over L.A. Methane Leak
The leak, first reported in October, has spewed up to 1,200 tons of methane daily.
01/06/2016 04:53 pm ET | Updated 11 hours ago
It's a little odd that Governor Jerry decided on this state of emergency declaration after three months. He also wants to make sure Southern California Gas pays every dime to cover the expenses of the leak while making sure no customer ever pays a higher cost for gas due to the company covering every dime in expenses related to the leak. Those are two not very compatible goals. I assume he's angling for some federal dollars to help pay for all this. The state has an oil and gas commission that's supposed to regulate the industry, make sure things like this don't happen, and promptly mitigate things like this leak. Sometimes strategic arm flapping can help in appearing to place the responsibility elsewhere.
Quoting 706. TroutMadness:

Woo Hoo, they are predicting 12" ~ 18" of snow Saturday nite thru Monday in Northern Michigan. I guess winter is finally here lol. About time, only about 5" on the ground right now.


You only have 5" more on the ground than we have here in Maryland.
We've got a powerhouse off the East coast, it's wound up and spinning out to sea
Quoting 709. RitaEvac:

We've got a powerhouse off the East coast, it's wound up and spinning out to sea


711. vis0

Quoting 554. PedleyCA:


Dry as a bad biscuit, how do we manage to get so much....lol
angle(s)? of energies including captive inner-sounds? no those inner-sounds are not voices in my head    ˆ¿ ˇ   ...     : - P
Quoting 675. Bobbyweather:


Wow, look at 90C's convection! And Navy site has 90C as 01C. Isn't it the earliest tropical cyclone in the Central Pacific?


Correct. And right on the heals of the latest tropical cyclone to ever develop in the CPAC.
S HATTERAS NM East of Charleston, SC
Station ID: BUOY41002 Lat: 31.86 Lon: -74.83
66F
34 mph
Wind From NE
Gusts 43 mph


W Bermuda
Station ID: BUOY41048 Lat: 31.95 Lon: -69.50
68F
38 mph
Wind From E
Gusts 47 mph

Quoting 709. RitaEvac:

We've got a powerhouse off the East coast, it's wound up and spinning out to sea


Very interesting looking feature.
Looks like a sub tropical storm tying to develop off the coast...

meanwhile 20 years ago D.C was getting buried by one of the biggest snow storms in the city's history.It was snowmeggedon before there was snowmeggedon.I measured 32 inches in total in my yard.I doubt D.C will see something like that this year let alone a moderate snow storm.
716. elioe


Scientists Warn Climate Change Affecting Greenland Ice Sheet More Than Previously Thought

Andy Rowell,


Not long into the New Year and already a new warning about climate change and rising sea levels.

A new scientific study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, is warning that climate change may be affecting the vast Greenland ice sheet more seriously than previously thought.
Traditionally the huge Greenland ice sheet, which NASA estimates is losing an estimated 287 billion tons of ice every year, has also been seen by scientists as a “sponge” for glacier meltwater.

But new research has found that the ice sheet could be losing this ability to act as a sponge.

An international team of scientists have been spent the last few years examining “firn,” the porous snow cover which overlays dense glacier ice near the surface. Firn is seen as crucial is capturing melt-water runoff before it enters the ocean adding to sea-level rise. The scientists wanted to see how climate change was affecting the firn layer’s ability to hold water.

“As this layer is porous and the pores are connected, theoretically all the pore space in this firn layer can be used to store meltwater percolating into the firn whenever melt occurs at the surface,” the new paper’s Lead Author, Horst Machguth of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, told The Washington Post.

Over time, meltwater percolates down through the firn and freezes into the ice layer. This is good news for sea level rise as the fern stops meltwater reaching the sea. But for how much longer?

Another of the scientists, York University Professor William Colgan, said: “The study looked at very recent climate change on the ice sheet, how the last couple of years of melt have really altered the structure of the ice sheet firn and made it behave differently to future melt.”

The scientists were shocked by what they found. They discovered that an extreme melt which occurred in 2012 caused a thick layer of ice to form on top of the firn layer. “In subsequent years, meltwater couldn’t penetrate vertically through the solid ice layer and instead drained along the ice sheet surface toward the ocean,” Colgan said.

This phenomenon had never been seen before.

Because the research “overturned the idea that firn can behave as a nearly bottomless sponge to absorb meltwater,” this means that Greenland’s projected sea level rise due to meltwater runoff is likely higher than previously predicted.

“I think the most notable result of our study is showing that the firn reacts faster to an atmospheric warming than expected,” Machguth added.

What is deeply concerning is that other ice-sheets are also covered in firn too, which also may react adversely to climate change. “Evidence is emerging to show Canadian Arctic firn is also capping off,” Colgan said.



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 07 2016


ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
27N75W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE
FOR MORE DETAILS. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 38N34W
THAT SUPPORTS A 1005 MB LOW NORTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N26W. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 27N53W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 30N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N43W AND A 1024
MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR
32N14W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

....SPECIAL FEATURES...

A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION FOCUSED ON A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N75W WITH
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO 30N70W AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. THE AREA IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER SOUTH CAROLINA SE TO A
BROAD BASE NEAR 25N72W PROVIDING MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE GENERALLY N OF 26N.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 62W-77W. THE PRIMARY
MARINE IMPACT IS NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE LOW AS IT GENERATES
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND A 1031 MB HIGH
ANCHORED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS NEAR 39N66W. THE LATEST
SCATTEROMETER PASS AROUND 07/0152 UTC INDICATED THESE NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others? Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something. I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level and yet it's rising in Miami. Thx for input.
724. MahFL
"Downtown Sacramento has had the wettest start for January since 2008, with 2 inches of rain.."
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others? Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something. I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level and yet it's rising in Miami. Thx for input.



Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others?
Well, it's impacting a lot more than "a few parts"; rising sea levels are measurable all along the state's coasts. But I'll try nonetheless:
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something.
On a small scale, water does indeed seek its own level. But on a larger scale, water most definitely doesn't "spread out evenly". Temperature variations mean more expansion in warmer waters; there's local subsidence; changing wind patterns; and so on, each contributing to lesser or greater SLR.
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level...
You didn't specify which areas, but I'd have to chalk this up to human memory. Sea level rise is fast on a geological time scale, but slow on a human one; in your entire lifetime, a particular area may only experience a few inches of rise--and if you see those areas every day, you're very unlikely to notice anything happening on even a yearly basis.
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Thx for input.
You're welcome.

Source

Source
727. MahFL
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others? Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something. I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level and yet it's rising in Miami. Thx for input.


Different area's sink faster than others, as FL is pretty flat a 1/4 inch sink would allow water to flow inland some feet and would affect a larger area than if the interior of FL was mountainous.
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others? Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something. I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level and yet it's rising in Miami. Thx for input.


Start with this article: from the New Yorker
Quoting 724. MahFL:

"Downtown Sacramento has had the wettest start for January since 2008, with 2 inches of rain.."


It's nice - but we need a lot more. Especially snow pack. And good water control managers lol.
Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
December 2015 Atlantic Meridional Mode value the lowest Dec value since 1997
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Storm # 3 still going in Soo Cal, had 1.24" after the front/trof axis passed last night about 7 pmish, have had numerous showers overnight from short waves/PVA totalling .68" for a storm total thus far of 1.92".

Storm 1= 0.01
Storm 2= 2.13
Storm 3= 1.92 and counting

Keep it up El Nino!
Quoting 729. CraigsIsland:



Start with this article: from the New Yorker


Interesting article, thanks for posting.
SOUTH AFRICA'S MOST POPULOUS CITY - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Johannesburg, South Africa of 38.0 C / 100.4 F was set on January 7, 2015.
SOUTH AFRICA'S EXECUTIVE CAPITOL - NEW RECORD HOTTEST TEMPERATURE: The record all-time hottest temperature in Pretoria, South Africa of 42.5 C / 108.5 F was set on January 7, 2015.
740. vis0

Quoting 726. Neapolitan:

Well, it's impacting a lot more than "a few parts"; rising sea levels are measurable all along the state's coasts. But I'll try nonetheless:On a small scale, water does indeed seek its own level. But on a larger scale, water most definitely doesn't "spread out evenly". Temperature variations mean more expansion in warmer waters; there's local subsidence; changing wind patterns; and so on, each contributing to lesser or greater SLR.You didn't specify which areas, but I'd have to chalk this up to human memory. Sea level rise is fast on a geological time scale, but slow on a human one; in your entire lifetime, a particular area may only experience a few inches of rise--and if you see those areas every day, you're very unlikely to notice anything happening on even a yearly basis.You're welcome.

Source

Source

Quoting 735. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm # 3 still going in Soo Cal, had 1.24" after the front/trof axis passed last night about 7 pmish, have had numerous showers overnight from short waves/PVA totalling .68" for a storm total thus far of 1.92".

Storm 1= 0.01
Storm 2= 2.13
Storm 3= 1.92 and counting

Keep it up El Nino!
(with La Nina in the background** playing "soft" punk rock "music" in headset...earbuds)
El Nino:: "De Nada(r)" remember he's like "Dennis the Menace" means no harm but things at times don't go as planned so plan ahead for any more flooding.

"De nada" kind of means "its no big deal"  but add an r and "nadar" means too swim

**get it, background noise???
Quoting 721. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



faster faster
Quoting 723. Bucsboltsfan:

Can someone help me understand sea level rise and help me understand how it is impacting a few parts of Florida but not others? Water spreads out evenly so I'm missing something. I have fished in the same areas for 45 years and there is no difference in the water level and yet it's rising in Miami. Thx for input.
I have lived on the water for over 50yrs, both in Dade County and the Florida keys. The ocean is rising, everyday the tide comes in twice a day and the ocean rises twice a day, but also retreats twice a day, so their is no net rise or fall of the ocean in the past 50 yrs. where I live.