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Earth's Nine Category Five Storms of 2015: 2nd Most on Record

By: Jeff Masters 3:21 AM GMT on January 01, 2016

Category Five: the phase evokes an almost reverential awe in novice and seasoned hurricane watchers alike, as one considers the incredible power and majesty of these most perfect but terrifyingly destructive storms on the planet. As we look back on the year in weather, a striking feature of 2015 is the bumper crop of these fearsome storms that appeared--thanks to El Niño bringing record-warm ocean temperatures to large swaths of the Pacific Ocean. Nine Category 5 storms whipped into life over the world's oceans in 2015: five in the Northwest Pacific, one in the Northeast Pacific, one in the Southeast Pacific, and two in the South Indian Ocean. Since accurate global satellite records began in 1990, only one year has seen more. That record is held by the El Niño year of 1997, which had twelve Category 5 storms--ten of them in the Northwest Pacific. Two other season have seen nine Cat 5s--2004 and 2014. Earth averaged just 4.6 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 - 2014, according to ratings made by NOAA's National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The majority of these storms occur during the July - November peak of the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone season, with 59% of all Cat 5s occurring in the Northwest Pacific.


Figure 1. Global Category 5 tropical cyclones from 1990 - 2015, as rated by NOAA's National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center. There is no obvious trend in the numbers, though the past two years have seen an unusually large number of Cat 5s.

Here, then, is a "rogue's gallery" of all the Category 5 storms on Earth in 2015:


Cat Five #9, Northeast Pacific. Hurricane Patricia as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra spacecraft at 1:30 pm EDT October 23, 2015. At the time, Patricia was the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere, with 200 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 879 mb. Patricia made landfall in an relatively unpopulated area near Cuixmala in Southwest Mexico on October 23 as a Category 5 storm with 165 mph winds, killing fourteen and doing $300 million in damage. Image credit: NASA.


Cat Five #8, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Atsani as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua spacecraft at 05:30 UTC August 19, 2015. Six hours later, Atsani hit peak strength with 160 mph winds and a 925 mb central pressure. Atsani spent its life over the open ocean waters to the east and southeast of Japan, and did not affect any land areas. Image credit: NASA.


Cat Five #7, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Soudelor as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi spacecraft at 03:43 UTC August 4, 2015. At the time, Soudelor was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 180 mph winds and a 900 mb central pressure. Soudelor passed directly over Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands on August 2 as a Category 2 storm, causing widespread damage and injuring ten people on the island. Soudelor hit Japan's Ryukyu Islands on August 5, causing over $3 million in damage, then hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds on August 7, knocking out power to 4.85 million households--the largest power outage in Taiwan's history. On August 8, Soudelor hit Fujian Province in China as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, causing over $3 billion in damage. Soudelor killed a total of 41 people and did $3.2 billion in damage along its entire path. Image credit: NASA Suomi NPP Satellite Twitter feed.


Cat Five #6, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Dolphin as seen at 01:05 UTC May 16, 2015 by the MODIS instrument. At the time, Dolphin was an intensifying Category 4 storm and would reach peak intensity as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds 17 hours later. Dolphin affected Guam and Rota in the U.S. Mariana Islands as a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph. The eye of Dolphin passed through the channel between the islands of Guam and Rota, and Andersen Air Force Base on Guam experienced sustained winds as high as 84 mph and a peak gust of 106 mph. Damage in the Mariana Islands from the typhoon was estimated at $10 million. Image credit: NASA.


Cat Five #5, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Noul as seen by the new Japanese Himawari-8 satellite at 00:50 UTC May 10, 2015. At the time, Noul was a peak-strength Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a 915 mb central pressure. Noul hit northeast Luzon in the Philippines at 09 UTC May 10 as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, killing two and causing less than $1 million in damage. Noul was the fourth strongest typhoon on record for so early in the year. The only stronger ones were Super Typhoon Amy of 1971, which deepened to 890 mb on May 2, Super Typhoon Iris of 1951, which hit 909 mb on May 3, and Super Typhoon Maysak that occurred just over a month previously (March 31, 2015, 905 mb central pressure.) Image credit: The University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, which put together a remarkable hi-res satellite animation of the storm from the Himawari-8 satellite (which is still in check-out mode.)


Cat Five #4, Northwest Pacific. Super Typhoon Maysak as seen from the International Space Station at approximately 6 pm EDT Tuesday March 31, 2015 (just after dawn local time.) At the time, Mayask was at peak intensity, with sustained winds of 160 mph (as estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and a central pressure of 905 mb (as estimated by the Japan Meteorological Agency.) Maysak was the strongest typhoon ever observed in the Northwest Pacific prior to April, and one of only three Category 5 typhoons ever observed in the Northwest Pacific so early in the year. Maysak killed 9 and did $8.5 million in damage to several small islands in the Federated States of Micronesia, which it struck at Category 5 strength on March 31. The nine people killed by the storm made it Micronesia's second deadliest storm in recorded history, according to EM-DAT. Their deadliest disaster was Category 4 Typhoon Chataan, which dumped 19.90" (506 mm) of rain in 24 hours on Chuuk, causing landslides that killed 47 people. Maysak is the 2nd most expensive disaster in Micronesia's history; the most expensive was Category 1 Typhoon Nina, which did $6 million (1987 dollars) in damage on November 21, 1987.


Cat Five #3, Southeast Pacific. Tropical Cyclone Pam near peak intensity (165 mph winds, 896 mb pressure), as seen by the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi satellite at 10:42 am EDT March 13, 2015, just southeast of Efate Island, where the capital of Vanuatu, Port Vila, lies. Pam killed 16 people and did $250 million in damage to the island nation of Vanuatu, making it the 2nd most expensive disaster in their history (the most expensive, according to EM-DAT: Cyclone Eric of 1985, which did $173 million in damage in 1985 dollars, or $377 million 2015 dollars.) Pam was the third most intense storm in the entire Southern Hemisphere by central pressure, only after Cyclone Zoe of 2002 and Cyclone Gafilo of 2004. Pam is tied with Cyclone Orson and Cyclone Monica for having the strongest sustained 10-minute average winds of any cyclone on record in the Southern Hemisphere. Image credit: @NOAASatellites.


Cat Five #2, Southwest Indian. Tropical Cyclone Eunice as seen by the MODIS instrument at 05:30 UTC January 30, 2015, when the storm was at peak intensity (160 mph winds, 900 mb pressure.) Eunice was the 3rd strongest cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Indian Ocean by pressure, and the strongest by winds. Fortunately, Eunice affected only ocean areas in the South Indian Ocean.


Cat Five #1, Southwest Indian. Tropical Cyclone Bansi as seen from the International Space Station, when lightning was lighting up the eye. The date of the photo was not given, but presumably was January 13, 2015, when Bansi was near peak intensity as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Bansi grazed the French island of La Reunion, off the coast of Madagascar, on January 13, dumping up to 22 inches of rain. After weakening to a Category 2 storm, Bansi passed about 90 miles from Rodrigues Island, which recorded sustained winds of 93 mph. Approximately 90 percent of the island was left without power. Image credit: Astronaut Sam Cristoforetti.

The near misses
Three tropical cyclone achieved an intensity of 155 mph winds, just missing the cutoff for being classified as Category 5 storms. It is possible that in post-season analysis, these storms will be classified as Category 5 (this happened to two typhoons in the Pacific in post-season analysis after the 2014 typhoon season.) The near-miss storms of 2015 were Hurricane Joaquin in the Atlantic, Tropical Cyclone Chapala in the Arabian Sea, and Super Typhoon Nangka in the Northwest Pacific.

Happy New Year, everyone! I'll be back with a new post on the first Monday of 2016.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

wow - I am glad they didn't all hit Florida. Sorry for the people that were affected and in no way do I diminish that tragedy.

Happy New Year as well. Talk about an update at a time when I wouldn't expect one.
Well, Jeff, thank God none of them made landfall here in the U.S.
Thanks for the new post....
Excellent post Dr Masters.......Thanks a lot! Been a busy year. Happy New Year to you and your family and friends and to all WU Bloggers!
Quoting 3. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the new post....


Quick Draw McGraw!
A frosty 9 degrees F at the house right now. My firecrackers and bottle rockets have their work cut out for them tonight.
Quoting 6. oldnewmex:

A frosty 9 degrees F at the house right now. My firecrackers and bottle rockets have their work cut out for them tonight.


LOL... I'll trade as I am tired of sweating. At least until I can return home. It's 76F and 86% humidity out... YUCK.
Love that photo of lightning in the eye of Bansi. Amazing shot.
Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 31 Dec 8:00 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 31 Dec 7:50 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
31 Dec 7:50 pm PST 37 14 39 N 1G02 OK

Kinda nippy at the old homestead 37.........Todays High 50 and Low 33
Is Bansi a female or male name?
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

Is Bansi a female or male name?


BANSI USA 5200 Canyon Crest Dr # 99. Riverside, California 92507.
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

Is Bansi a female or male name?

Seems to be both Bansi
Quoting 11. HurricaneHunterJoe:



BANSI USA 5200 Canyon Crest Dr # 99. Riverside, California 92507.


That's not too far from my house....lol
Quoting: 9. HurricaneHunterJoe
Kinda nippy at the old homestead 37.........Todays High 50 and Low 33

Was low 42.5 & high 59.9 .....
Thanks Dr. Masters. Happy New Years everyone.
When Fox News' clock nor the ball drop don't match with the official time...lol. Now we're trying to figure out how long the delay in a TV broadcast is.
Happy New Year!!! I hope everyone has a Fantastic, Healthy, and Blessed 2016!
Quoting 1. Dakster:

wow - I am glad they didn't all hit Florida. Sorry for the people that were affected and in no way do I diminish that tragedy.

Happy New Year as well. Talk about an update at a time when I wouldn't expect one.
LOL. I guess we're all getting too old...or too smart...to be out partying. There's already someone near me firing off a shotgun. I called in a guy who had fired off about twenty .357 rounds but I think the locals were too slow to catch him. Karen wanted to know how come I thought they were.357's. I told her, after having to shoot 50 rounds every three months for about ten years, you get to know how one sounds. Happy New Year, and stay under cover.
Quoting 17. Astrometeor:

When Fox News' clock nor the ball drop don't match with the official time...lol. Now we're trying to figure out how long the delay in a TV broadcast is.
Probably long enough to bleep out any Trump outbursts. :-) Are you on Eastern or Central up there?
Quoting 8. TimSoCal:

Love that photo of lightning in the eye of Bansi. Amazing shot.
It's a beauty. I wonder if it was a time exposure? I have never been fast enough or lucky enough to catch lightning with a single exposure.
Quoting 20. sar2401:

Probably long enough to bleep out any Trump outbursts. :-) Are you on Eastern or Central up there?


Central, but my computer reads Eastern and I had the official time on a website, and it seemed that the ball drop was off 8 seconds, Fox's clock was 6 more seconds off. *shrug* Is a delay that long?
Quoting 22. Astrometeor:



Central, but my computer reads Eastern and I had the official time on a website, and it seemed that the ball drop was off 8 seconds, Fox's clock was 6 more seconds off. *shrug* Is a delay that long?

I've heard it is 7 seconds.
welcome too 2016 every one only 3 more years too 2020 and we start all over at 0
Quoting 17. Astrometeor:

When Fox News' clock nor the ball drop don't match with the official time...lol. Now we're trying to figure out how long the delay in a TV broadcast is.


You also have to account for various delays that occur due to satellite transmissions. In some cases, you might add up to 15 seconds of delay just for that.
Quoting 22. Astrometeor:



Central, but my computer reads Eastern and I had the official time on a website, and it seemed that the ball drop was off 8 seconds, Fox's clock was 6 more seconds off. *shrug* Is a delay that long?


Now it's New Year's! To be like Sar, CNN decided to broadcast Memphis instead of Nashville...which was disturbing enough, but the audio for the bands was off (guy sounded terrible not because of him), and the Guitar failed to drop, merely a jerk and then nothing. After 3 minutes, they managed to jerkily drop it to the halfway point and then it quit.

CNN's clock was off by 18 seconds! My family did the countdown on our own, cause clearly the major news companies can't. Ah well.

The neighborhood fired off all of their illegal firecrackers all at once, lots of booming.

Edit: See your post, emguy. We thought about that, still seemed wrong. The celebration in New York was definitely subpar when they sent us pieces of it for us to see. Didn't get the ball drop from Times Square this year, different from the last few years. Kinda disappointing.
Quoting 26. Astrometeor:


snip>
The neighborhood fired off all of their illegal firecrackers all at once, lots of booming.


I will going to bed before West Coast New Years and hope I am asleep before all Hell breaks loose...
Thanks,
We all needed that! Happy New Year!!

Quoting GeoffreyWPB from Last BLOG.

As per my tradition on New Year's Eve, I shall release all my ignored members for 2015 from WU prison. Fly free jail birds!
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Happy New Year to wunderground folks, from Tucson!

It's pretty awesome outside right now.
Happy New Year everyone! As a little gift I thought I would offer this link to a fantastic video of the Arizona monsoons. Enjoy!
Link
a most excellent read for year end review

thanks

have a wunderful new year ahead
Happy New Year!

Lows down to the mid-single digits Fahrenheit tonight. I'm sleeping by the woodstove, drifting off to the sound of the kitchen sink trickling. Won't be above freezing for a couple days, got a halogen floodlight pointed at the well pump corner (the cats broke the heat lamp, the workshop where the well is has the cat door for the outdoor cats to have shelter from the cold.)
33. vis0
And worst TO ME AS TO ADDING TO THE PUBLIC COMPLACENCY is  to Hurricane Patricia.  Certain companies are selling their Mexican coastline adventure telling people that they survived the strongest TS, instead of just saying what really happened (that  Patricia severity was very localized & off shore due to Patricia's coverage size ) in a creative way' Like, Patricia Power was contained to a small area and off shore so come visit .  The Ads are making it seem that 180+ mph winds can be managed. When a smaller storm with more rain or strong ocean waves comes in and those that stay behind thinking its OK i saw the AD on TV , will that company pay their hospital  (could be worse) bills. The AD has fine print probably sez 'not responsible for any damages due to nature'.
34. vis0

Quoting 24. Tazmanian:

welcome too 2016 every one only 3 more years too 2020 and we start all over at 0
TaZ is a visionary ...20/20?

R u okay i can read your writing w/o opening the taztionary.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #10
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
18:00 PM FST January 1 2016
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT is now in force for the Lau Group

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 17.4S 171.2W has to minute sustained winds of 80 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS GOES enhanced infrared iamgery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
110 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent. Organization good. Outflow good to the south and east. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Severe Tropical cyclone Ula is being steered to the southwest by a northeast deep layer mean flow. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern with low level circulation center embedded in CMG yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0 and PT=4.5. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 18.2S 173.3W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.8S 175.5W - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 20.3S 178.4W - 65 knots (CAT 3)
gfs.interesting
Happy New Year Wunderpeeps!

The cooler air has made it to SC. Now we just need some sun to dry out.
Quoting 39. HaoleboySurfEC:

Happy New Year Wunderpeeps!

The cooler air has made it to SC. Now we just need some sun to dry out..
Enjoy it while you can. Happy New Year to you and all members.
Tropical Depression Nine-C has been downgraded to a disturbance according to ATCF.
CP, 09, 2016010112, , BEST, 0, 22N, 1769W, 25, 1003, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 60, 35, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, S, 12, NEQ, 120, 0, 60, 120,

However, SHIPS guidance indicates that some regeneration is possible after 48 hours near or after the remnants cross the International Date Line, as the model predicts lessening shear. Other conditions are favorable for development, I believe.
Wishing a great New Year to all!!!

80 degrees and sunny with a light Easterly breeze here in the Lower Keys this morning.
GFS gives Florida some cooler weather in three or four days...





Quick Question- I do not see a method for deleting Favorite Cites from my WU; just how to add them. Is there a way to delete favorite cities?
Happy New Year to all!!!! Rainy day here in Destrehan La. 48 degrees..
Quoting 44. NOLAsteve:

Quick Question- I do not see a method for deleting Favorite Cites from my WU; just how to add them. Is there a way to delete favorite cities?


Go to the forecast page for that city and click the star next to the city's name and it will be removed.
Happy New Year everyone!
47 and rain here on da Bayou Grande. Happy New Year all! I can feel the green crap growing on my house its been so wet lately.
Quoting 46. ChillinInTheKeys:



Go to the forecast page for that city and click the star next to the city's name and it will be removed.


To add to that, one can also click the grey star (manage favorites) to the left of the favorite cities at the top left corner of the screen and knock out a few birds with one stone if need be.
Good morning and afternoon, all. Happy New Year! A dreary cloudy day, 42 degrees, here in west central Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheesy grits with shrimp, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, Monte Cristo Eggs Benedict, apple snapple oatmeal, cheese danishes, Tea or Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
  • Quoting 50. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. Happy New Year! A dreary cloudy day, 42 degrees, here in west central Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheesy grits with shrimp, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, Monte Cristo Eggs Benedict, apple snapple oatmeal, cheese danishes, Tea or Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Nummy!

Over here we have grilled cardboard skinless boneless breasts and fried eggs - my adopted brother is on a weight loss/weight training regimen, and he's going a little heavy on the low fat/moderate carb/high protein thing, and I'm mostly the cook.  Coffee with coconut cream, hot cocoa with marshmallows for the kids who got to be awake for New Years for the first time (the "Avatar - Legend of Korra" marathon kept them up and cheerful.)
In other news, it's 4*F here in the ol' 89406, the cottonwoods are full of thousands and thousands of blackbirds wheeling around to keep warm, waiting for full sunrise.  Crisp and clear, and the pipes aren't frozen.  :)
On sale today!!!


RENOGY® Premium Solar Panel Kit 200W Polycrystalline Off Grid: 2pc 100W Poly solar panel UL Listed+ 20A MPPT Charge Controller+ MC4 20ft Adapter Kit+ Mounting Z Brackets
by Renogy

After installing these 3 weeks ago on my new shed structure I've had more inquiries from the neighbors and their neighbors than ever before. 2 have already purchased simply because they can see how easy the system is to set up. The fear factor that most harbor for solar needs to be smashed. The solar bug is alive and growing!! Don't think you can't make a difference!

Hope all you WU'ers and your families have a healthy and happy new year!
Happy New Year 2016!

Only 6 months till the beginning of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season !

It might be a very interesting hurricane season.

The big question ... will it be a slower hurricane season like what we observed after the 1982 and 1991-92 El Nino events, or will it be a very busy hurricane season, such as what happened after the 1997 powerful El Nino Event?


Some of the noteworthy Atlantic hurricane seasons, following a big El Nino event:

1983 - 4 named storms, but Hurricane Alicia roared into the Galveston-Houston, TX, area, causing major damage.
1992 - 7 named storms. Hurricane Andrew became a CAT5 hurricane that devastated the Bahamas, south Florida, and also hit Louisiana. It was the most costly US hurricane strike, until Katrina, 2005.
1998 - 14 named storms, with Hurricane Bonnie striking NC, Earl hitting the FL panhandle, and major Hurricane Georges slamming the Caribbean islands, striking the FL Keys, and making its final landfall along the Central US Gulf Coast.

Remember, it only takes one big hurricane strike to make it a "busy" hurricane season.



4 parts water, 1 part bleach. Put in a generic pump sprayer. Spray it on and while it is still wet, hose it off. Probably best to do it in shade so the bleach solution has time to work before evaporating. I do my vinyl siding, soffit and garage door every couple of years. Look sparkling clean and no power washer needed. Bleach solution will not harm plants or turf as long as you keep 4:1. Great for plastic patio furniture too. I'll be at it this spring after all this rain. Lord I think the cats have some green on them.

Quoting 48. PensacolaDoug:

47 and rain here on da Bayou Grande. Happy New Year all! I can feel the green crap growing on my house its been so wet lately.
Abaco, please excuse my ignorance, but how many of these do you think I would need to power a 110v pool pump? In a very rough sense. Thanks for posting and Happy New Year!

Quoting 52. Abacosurf:

On sale today!!!


RENOGY® Premium Solar Panel Kit 200W Polycrystalline Off Grid: 2pc 100W Poly solar panel UL Listed+ 20A MPPT Charge Controller+ MC4 20ft Adapter Kit+ Mounting Z Brackets
by Renogy

After installing these 3 weeks ago on my new shed structure I've had more inquiries from the neighbors and their neighbors than ever before. 2 have already purchased simply because they can see how easy the system is to set up. The fear factor that most harbor for solar needs to be smashed. The solar bug is alive and growing!! Don't think you can't make a difference!

Hope all you WU'ers and your families have a healthy and happy new year!

Happy New Year everyone.......................................... ..............................
We hope everyone had a good holiday. I was surprised by the new blog. Interesting read. The flooding is heart-breaking to watch.

These are becoming very frequent.




After we watched the ball drop last night, the question remains: Will Kathy Griffin ever shut-up?????
Quoting 33. vis0:

And worst TO ME AS TO ADDING TO THE PUBLIC COMPLACENCY is  to Hurricane Patricia.  Certain companies are selling their Mexican coastline adventure telling people that they survived the strongest TS, instead of just saying what really happened (that  Patricia severity was very localized & off shore due to Patricia's coverage size ) in a creative way' Like, Patricia Power was contained to a small area and off shore so come visit .  The Ads are making it seem that 180+ mph winds can be managed. When a smaller storm with more rain or strong ocean waves comes in and those that stay behind thinking its OK i saw the AD on TV , will that company pay their hospital  (could be worse) bills. The AD has fine print probably sez 'not responsible for any damages due to nature'.



Welcome to corporate callousness. You see it everywhere.... form Exxon hiding climate change science to BP poisoning the Gulf to Mansanto poisoning the planet ... the list is at least as long as the the list of corporations.
Yes! 1st of January 2016!! Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016 here we come!! 6 months!
Quoting 60. opal92nwf:

Yes! 1st of January 2016!! Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016 here we come!! 6 months!


Ummm
think you mean 5?
Quoting 55. HaoleboySurfEC:

Abaco, please excuse my ignorance, but how many of these do you think I would need to power a 110v pool pump? In a very rough sense. Thanks for posting and Happy New Year!




Why not just buy a solar powered pool pump?
Quoting 55. HaoleboySurfEC:

Abaco, please excuse my ignorance, but how many of these do you think I would need to power a 110v pool pump? In a very rough sense. Thanks for posting and Happy New Year!


There's a non-technical explantion about how to calculate solar requirements here. In addition to what's shown in the kit, you'll need at least one deep cycle battery and an inverter to convert 12 volts to 110. Unless you are absolutely confident around electrical systems, you need to add in the cost of paying an electrician to install it. That might be required by your local code anyway. Inverters are not very efficient, so you'll need to add that loss to your figures. Make sure you calculate your requirements based on the starting amps of the pump, otherwise you'll be tripping off the system every time it starts. Do you run the pump all year, and for how long each day? After winter, there should be plenty of sun there to use solar, but winter might be a different matter. The output from solar panels on cloudy days is better than it once was (zero), but it's still drastically reduced. You'll probably still need an auxiliary grid connection for those times. Lastly, have you figured out how much the pump costs to run a year? High current applications like pool pumps aren't the best fit for solar unless your electricity rate are really righ.
Quoting 52. Abacosurf:

On sale today!!!


RENOGY® Premium Solar Panel Kit 200W Polycrystalline Off Grid: 2pc 100W Poly solar panel UL Listed+ 20A MPPT Charge Controller+ MC4 20ft Adapter Kit+ Mounting Z Brackets
by Renogy

After installing these 3 weeks ago on my new shed structure I've had more inquiries from the neighbors and their neighbors than ever before. 2 have already purchased simply because they can see how easy the system is to set up. The fear factor that most harbor for solar needs to be smashed. The solar bug is alive and growing!! Don't think you can't make a difference!

Hope all you WU'ers and your families have a healthy and happy new year!



That set with one panel and light sensor runs the lights in our workshop. The hardest part (for me; my bro did the wiring) was building the mounting frame on the greenhouse roof (attached to the south face of the workshop) and not panicking as he passed the panel up to me so I could bolt it in place. And the giant wasp nest I had to dodge while doing this.
Quoting 62. Dakster:



Why not just buy a solar powered pool pump?
That's an option, but most pools are going to require a system costing $1500 to $2000, and you can do a solar install to an existing pump for about half that. With all the ones I've seen, the solar panel floats around the pool, and the durability of those seems to be pretty questionable.
Quoting 64. nonblanche:



That set with one panel and light sensor runs the lights in our workshop. The hardest part (for me; my bro did the wiring) was building the mounting frame on the greenhouse roof (attached to the south face of the workshop) and not panicking as he passed the panel up to me so I could bolt it in place. And the giant wasp nest I had to dodge while doing this.
LOL. My brother had to pass my three 100 watt panel to me on top of the RV, and he apparently added lead weights to them when I wasn't looking. They were real light when I was picking them up on the ground. :-)
Well, shucks. It's cloudy here and 48. As I suspected, the secondary trough is kicking off some rain, and there's a blob closely approaching me from the west. Looks like just light rain of short duration, and I'm thankful for that, but I'm really just sick of seeing rain. The side porch has steps on each end, and it's a good thing. Went shopping this morning and had to schlep everything around the backyard and up the back step because the area around the front steps is still under about eight inches of water. But at least it didn't rain on me when I was doing this, so things could be worse. I was surprised how cold a breezy 48 felt. It's like I was deposited from summer to winter in one day. This whole climate change thing is looking less and less attractive. :-)
Quoting 65. sar2401:

That's an option, but most pools are going to require a system costing $1500 to $2000, and you can do a solar install to an existing pump for about half that. With all the ones I've seen, the solar panel floats around the pool, and the durability of those seems to be pretty questionable.


don't think I would want a floating pump either.

Hmm. I saw a replacement pump that would go where a hayward pump would. It ran at a lower cycle had its own panel. It ran when it had enough sun to power it.

I thought of doing this, but then I decided to move and get a house without a pool so I abandoned that thought. Just seemed like a pump made to run on solar would be more efficient that trying to put panels and convert.
Quoting 42. ChillinInTheKeys:

Wishing a great New Year to all!!!

80 degrees and sunny with a light Easterly breeze here in the Lower Keys this morning.
You rat!!! Can I come live with you this winter? :-)

Happy New Year.
Quoting 68. Dakster:



don't think I would want a floating pump either.

Hmm. I saw a replacement pump that would go where a hayward pump would. It ran at a lower cycle had its own panel. It ran when it had enough sun to power it.

I thought of doing this, but then I decided to move and get a house without a pool so I abandoned that thought. Just seemed like a pump made to run on solar would be more efficient that trying to put panels and convert.

As long as you have an unlimited budget, there are, but the pump is generally the biggest dollar cost item for an installation like this. Unless the pump is ready to give up the ghost anyway, it's hard to justify a complete change out based on just cost. Some of the newer pumps are a lot more electrically efficient, and would work better with solar than high starting amps older units, but the payback time for a complete new installation would be just about the time the new pump quits.
Quoting 34. vis0:


TaZ is a visionary ...20/20?

R u okay i can read your writing w/o opening the taztionary.

LOL. Vis, there are times that I think you were a standup comedian in another life. I've now discovered another drawback to getting old. Just about the time I get used to writing 2015 on everything, it's changed again. Seems like I only got used to 2014 about three months ago. :-)
Quoting 67. sar2401:

Well, shucks. It's cloudy here and 48. As I suspected, the secondary trough is kicking off some rain, and there's a blob closely approaching me from the west. Looks like just light rain of short duration, and I'm thankful for that, but I'm really just sick of seeing rain. The side porch has steps on each end, and it's a good thing. Went shopping this morning and had to schlep everything around the backyard and up the back step because the area around the front steps is still under about eight inches of water. But at least it didn't rain on me when I was doing this, so things could be worse. I was surprised how cold a breezy 48 felt. It's like I was deposited from summer to winter in one day. This whole climate change thing is looking less and less attractive. :-)

A cool and gray start to 2016 here on the NW GOM coast.. (oh man, another resolution bites the dust)
Quoting 70. sar2401:

As long as you have an unlimited budget, there are, but the pump is generally the biggest dollar cost item for an installation like this. Unless the pump is ready to give up the ghost anyway, it's hard to justify a complete change out based on just cost. Some of the newer pumps are a lot more electrically efficient, and would work better with solar than high starting amps older units, but the payback time for a complete new installation would be just about the time the new pump quits.


I thought that Federal tax credits would help with the ROI.... And of course it helps with the environment.

One of my goals is some sort of alternative power in my new home - once I get it. A combination of wind and solar. Wind depends on if I can find a house in the right location. Not only will the wind have to be right, but the local codes must allow it as well. Unfortunately, I can't use tide or geothermal in the areas I can move to.




*Sigh* 60 hours of snow for my area. If only runs like these weren't always in fantasy-land.
Tornado6042008X
NO THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN! for the 15th zillion time! Why oh why is it when i always have to travel north? Nature did this to me back in 014 and 015 We will not have a repeat of this!
Quoting 64. nonblanche:



That set with one panel and light sensor runs the lights in our workshop. The hardest part (for me; my bro did the wiring) was building the mounting frame on the greenhouse roof (attached to the south face of the workshop) and not panicking as he passed the panel up to me so I could bolt it in place. And the giant wasp nest I had to dodge while doing this.

How mobile is this system?
Could it be installed on a rental house and easily removed and transferred to another house or RV when the time comes to move?
Quoting 75. Tornado6042008X:





*Sigh* 60 hours of snow for my area. If only runs like these weren't always in fantasy-land.
Other models and their ensembles have been hinting at this.
Quoting 78. Climate175:

Other models and their ensembles have been hinting at this.
True. Anywho it looks like the winter may finally be on the way.
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:

Tornado6042008X
NO THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN! for the 15th zillion time! Why oh why is it when i always have to travel north? Nature did this to me back in 014 and 015 We will not have a repeat of this!
When do you leave on your trip?
Quoting 79. Tornado6042008X:

True. Anywho it looks like the winter may finally be on the way.

Just January living up to it's true self.
Quoting 76. washingtonian115:

Tornado6042008X
NO THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN AGAIN! for the 15th zillion time! Why oh why is it when i always have to travel north? Nature did this to me back in 014 and 015 We will not have a repeat of this!


Maybe you should change the month you go north? I know this isn't always possible...
Quoting 78. Climate175:

Other models and their ensembles have been hinting at this.


I see the upstate of SC is in on this!! Hope this pans out!!

Eric
Happy New Year to all WU landlubbers, and SAR2401, too, from Chicago. The snow is not deep enough to go cross-country skiing, so I think I'll just sit around today, eat some brunch from aislinnpaps, and roast some chestnuts later.
Thank you,Dr. Masters. I wish everyone, a very Happy New Year. Peace. :)
Quoting 80. Tornado6042008X:

When do you leave on your trip?
It's a business meeting.We are expected to be up there the day before (January 13th) I hope this is just another phantom storm the GFS cooked up.
Quoting 82. Dakster:



Maybe you should change the month you go north? I know this isn't always possible...
Its the company's call not mine.

NIce negative tilt to the midlevel flow at the West Coast north of the predicted 500 mb keel of the jet. Impulses lined up all the way to Asia.
Happy New Years to Everyone in Wunderground!

Got together my best satellite pics from 2015 in my blog..

Hard to choose a favorite but if I limited to the ones featured in this entry I'd go with..

Patricia's Heart
Quoting 81. Climate175:

Just January living up to it's true self.
-Yeap. Even at that at least I don't see the kind of weather that we had here during Christmas anywhere on the horizon. A 67F dewpoint temp at Dulles with heavy downpours and thunderstorms in the area.
Quoting 66. sar2401:

LOL. My brother had to pass my three 100 watt panel to me on top of the RV, and he apparently added lead weights to them when I wasn't looking. They were real light when I was picking them up on the ground. :-)


Yeah, funny how that works. :)

Western Rex Block being eroded on its southern edge by evolving trough over the Great Basin, which will cause the main flow of the Pacific jet to undercut and link up with the jet over the southern CONUS, stranding a much weaker northern jet.
Quoting 77. oddspeed:


How mobile is this system?
Could it be installed on a rental house and easily removed and transferred to another house or RV when the time comes to move?


I would classify it as roughly equivalent to moving a large, mounted major appliance, a computer system, and several car batteries. If you were installing it with the intent of moving it if needed, it could be done in a modular fashion. If you installed it not expecting to move, then might be better off counting it as a selling point in the property.
Anyone else see the tide roll in last night? It was Spartan out...
Quoting 86. washingtonian115:

It's a business meeting.We are expected to be up there the day before (January 13th) I hope this is just another phantom storm the GFS cooked up. Its the company's call not mine.


Then the company needs to change when they have this meeting if it is always getting messed up by the weather. Like I said not always something you can do about it. Just gotta roll with the punches.
I'm really not used to these temperatures this year, it's been so warm up till now. It's 25° feels like 17° with the wind.
Quoting 94. Dakster:



Then the company needs to change when they have this meeting if it is always getting messed up by the weather. Like I said not always something you can do about it. Just gotta roll with the punches.
They have skype as a option but I wanted to experience New York.
Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

They have skype as a option but I wanted to experience New York.


Can't you get mugged and sit in bad traffic in DC? (Just kidding of course) I get it... I hope this year it works out for you.

Getting more rain than me! I haven't seen a drop of rain since Oct.


Been looking at the the price of this latest storm . There’s this of course –
At least 28 people have died in the U.S. Midwest since the weekend in the rare winter floods, mostly from driving into flooded areas after storms dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain, officials said.

But also this –

Texas, New Mexico producers lose more than 30,000 dairy cows

Link
Quoting 67. sar2401:

Well, shucks. It's cloudy here and 48. As I suspected, the secondary trough is kicking off some rain, and there's a blob closely approaching me from the west. Looks like just light rain of short duration, and I'm thankful for that, but I'm really just sick of seeing rain. The side porch has steps on each end, and it's a good thing. Went shopping this morning and had to schlep everything around the backyard and up the back step because the area around the front steps is still under about eight inches of water. But at least it didn't rain on me when I was doing this, so things could be worse. I was surprised how cold a breezy 48 felt. It's like I was deposited from summer to winter in one day. This whole climate change thing is looking less and less attractive. :-)


I'm going to have to protect my plants Sunday Night or Monday. I need about 10 days of lows near freezing and highs near 45 to restore broccoli quality and I'd like to cut and freeze it at best possible quality. I also have' to bring the citrus in probably and put covers on the lettuce (which should have been frozen to death by now anyway). Yes it's gonna feel uncomfortably cold this coming week in DC after recent warmth. I told the kids to make sure they knew where their winter coats were.

DC December averaged 51.2F, first winter month ever to average over 50F and 5.6F above previous 1984 record. I think this beats your SE AL average for a normal Dec. Wet warm soil is causing me garden issues even with raised beds. More 70F+ days in 1982 though, another Nino December.
Quoting 100. RobertWC:



Been looking at the the price of this latest storm . There’s this of course –
At least 28 people have died in the U.S. Midwest since the weekend in the rare winter floods, mostly from driving into flooded areas after storms dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain, officials said.

But also this –

Texas, New Mexico producers lose more than 30,000 dairy cows

Link



There goes the price of red meat... and dairy products.
Quoting 55. HaoleboySurfEC:

Abaco, please excuse my ignorance, but how many of these do you think I would need to power a 110v pool pump? In a very rough sense. Thanks for posting and Happy New Year!



Hi to everybody who are now in 2016.
Stunning display of cat 5s in the blog heading.

On the solar panel front and power supplies etc. I would like to say this.
We have a 2000 Watt system with a 3000 Watt power inverter out at the farm I look after.
These are the problems of the day I was dealing with today.
The 1000 watt windmill blew over and destroyed itself in the 100 MPH plus winds a few weeks ago so I disconnected all its cables and braking attachments from the control system.
Then the fork lift truck batteries which have been in place for about 8 years seemed to have failed, so instead of giving a reading of about 28 volts DC I got about 5 volts DC.
So I disconnected them as well.

This left about 2000 watts of solar panels and no batteries, so I disconnected them as well.
Then I reconnected 2 of the 80 watt panels together in series, ( that is to say the + of one to the - on the next to make 24 volts output to the regulator.
Then I rigged up a small cheap regulator that is about 8 amps at 24 volts max.
To this I ridded up 2 reasonable condition old car batteries and I connected these to our 3000 watt inverter which is still working OK.
I then connected a 240 volt half horse power electric motor to the inverter outlet and it them proceeded to pump up 250 gallons of water over 100 feet to our water header tank.

In summery, this should make sense:-
if you have 2 X 80 watt solar panels costing maybe $300, which you connect via a regulator costing about $20 to 2 reasonable 12 volt batteries, connected in series giving 24 Volts, costing about $100, you have the ability to charge and store electricity at 24 volts.
You then need a 1000 Watt "Inverter," to change the 24 volts from the batteries into 110 or 220 volts depending on your supply needs in your area. This will cost about $150.
A few bits of cables costing about $50 max with hose clips and insulation tape etc.
That gives a total of about $620

I built on of these systems for my shed about 8 years ago and it still works fine.
If your pool pump is less than 1 horse power or 746 watts this should power its OK but you also need to take into account how many hours a day you want to run the pump, as you may need bigger batteries to store more power.

Happy new year to everybody and build one of these systems and help to cut the emissions and greenhouse gases in 2016
Test



all is quiet on new years day
100,000 flee Asuncion as water levels rise

Large parts of the United States, Britain and South America are underwater ahead of the New Year, still inundated by floodwaters which many experts have blamed on the El Nino weather phenomenon triggered by a shift in trade winds across the Pacific around the Equator. Here's an update on the situation in the three regions.

Link
Thanks Sar. It is a 110v plug in. Probably costs me $250 to run for 6 months, but I would like to run it more than I currently do. So, if I could get a 7 year payback I'm good. I could also use it to power the irrigation well pump when I finally get that dug (or dig myself).

Eventually wifey and I are planning to build a mountain home and we would like to go off the grid, so I need to start understanding the technology on a small scale. Heck, I'm doing more and more freelance travel and work from home so it is becoming more and more of a reality each day. Wifey is an RN and you know there are plenty of hospitals everywhere. I just need to stay within a couple of hours of a major airport.

Quoting 63. sar2401:

There's a non-technical explantion about how to calculate solar requirements here. In addition to what's shown in the kit, you'll need at least one deep cycle battery and an inverter to convert 12 volts to 110. Unless you are absolutely confident around electrical systems, you need to add in the cost of paying an electrician to install it. That might be required by your local code anyway. Inverters are not very efficient, so you'll need to add that loss to your figures. Make sure you calculate your requirements based on the starting amps of the pump, otherwise you'll be tripping off the system every time it starts. Do you run the pump all year, and for how long each day? After winter, there should be plenty of sun there to use solar, but winter might be a different matter. The output from solar panels on cloudy days is better than it once was (zero), but it's still drastically reduced. You'll probably still need an auxiliary grid connection for those times. Lastly, have you figured out how much the pump costs to run a year? High current applications like pool pumps aren't the best fit for solar unless your electricity rate are really righ.
nam precip total rain 84 hrs out

It's another warm, sweaty winter day here in Orlando, 85F. I could not bare to live in a truly tropical, low elevation climate!
nam precip total snow 84 hrs out

single digit temps on the way for lower lakes region as we progress into the weekend
Quoting 103. PlazaRed:


Hi to everybody who are now in 2016.
Stunning display of cat 5s in the blog heading.

On the solar panel front and power supplies etc. I would like to say this.
We have a 2000 Watt system with a 3000 Watt power inverter out at the farm I look after.
These are the problems of the day I was dealing with today.
The 1000 watt windmill blew over and destroyed itself in the 100 MPH plus winds a few weeks ago so I disconnected all its cables and braking attachments from the control system.
Then the fork lift truck batteries which have been in place for about 8 years seemed to have failed, so instead of giving a reading of about 28 volts DC I got about 5 volts DC.
So I disconnected them as well.

This left about 2000 watts of solar panels and no batteries, so I disconnected them as well.
Then I reconnected 2 of the 80 watt panels together in series, ( that is to say the + of one to the - on the next to make 24 volts output to the regulator.
Then I rigged up a small cheap regulator that is about 8 amps at 24 volts max.
To this I ridded up 2 reasonable condition old car batteries and I connected these to our 3000 watt inverter which is still working OK.
I then connected a 240 volt half horse power electric motor to the inverter outlet and it them proceeded to pump up 250 gallons of water over 100 feet to our water header tank.

In summery, this should make sense:-
if you have 2 X 80 watt solar panels costing maybe $300, which you connect via a regulator costing about $20 to 2 reasonable 12 volt batteries, connected in series giving 24 Volts, costing about $100, you have the ability to charge and store electricity at 24 volts.
You then need a 1000 Watt "Inverter," to change the 24 volts from the batteries into 110 or 220 volts depending on your supply needs in your area. This will cost about $150.
A few bits of cables costing about $50 max with hose clips and insulation tape etc.
That gives a total of about $620

I built on of these systems for my shed about 8 years ago and it still works fine.
If your pool pump is less than 1 horse power or 746 watts this should power its OK but you also need to take into account how many hours a day you want to run the pump, as you may need bigger batteries to store more power.

Happy new year to everybody and build one of these systems and help to cut the emissions and greenhouse gases in 2016


You're going to want to swap out those car batteries. Car batteries really aren't designed to be used in this fashion and will likely fail in short order. The thin spongy plates in the typical car battery are designed for rapid high current discharge and recharge cycling, not deep cycling or extended output.

Better choices would be golf cart/marine batteries. These are deep cycle batteries designed for extended periods of use and deep discharging. They should last you a good while and for your purposes they would be relatively cheap.
Amtrak?

Quoting 96. washingtonian115:

They have skype as a option but I wanted to experience New York.
washi~ GEOS-5 has it pulling together at the end of it's run overland too. Kinda far out yet.. The storm before it keeps trending farther out to sea.


Shows nice & not too crazy heavy rain coming for SoCal too.

Quoting 112. HurrMichaelOrl:

It's another warm, sweaty winter day here in Orlando, 85F. I could not bare to live in a truly tropical, low elevation climate!
today I think is the last we will see of those 80's temps..temps going downhill starting tonight.
Quoting 110. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks Sar. It is a 110v plug in. Probably costs me $250 to run for 6 months, but I would like to run it more than I currently do. So, if I could get a 7 year payback I'm good. I could also use it to power the irrigation well pump when I finally get that dug (or dig myself).

Eventually wifey and I are planning to build a mountain home and we would like to go off the grid, so I need to start understanding the technology on a small scale. Heck, I'm doing more and more freelance travel and work from home so it is becoming more and more of a reality each day. Wifey is an RN and you know there are plenty of hospitals everywhere. I just need to stay within a couple of hours of a major airport.




Pretty close to what we're doing. Try not to go super cheap, watch for "owner holds note" deals because those can turn into ugly situations fast - and this is speaking from a place where that's how we bought this farm. The better the water quality and supply, the more you'll probably pay. If you can get land with irrigation rights, do NOT sell off those rights. They're likely what's keeping your ground water recharged (I'm leaving the Central Valley situation out of that.) The prices in northern Nevada are pretty good, if you don't mind the temperature extremes (some valleys get single digits and lower in the winter for days at a time, and summers can be brutal - but dry enough that a swamp cooler will work better and cheaper than A/C.)
Quoting 101. georgevandenberghe:



I'm going to have to protect my plants Sunday Night or Monday. I need about 10 days of lows near freezing and highs near 45 to restore broccoli quality and I'd like to cut and freeze it at best possible quality. I also have' to bring the citrus in probably and put covers on the lettuce (which should have been frozen to death by now anyway). Yes it's gonna feel uncomfortably cold this coming week in DC after recent warmth. I told the kids to make sure they knew where their winter coats were.

DC December averaged 51.2F, first winter month ever to average over 50F and 5.6F above previous 1984 record. I think this beats your SE AL average for a normal Dec. Wet warm soil is causing me garden issues even with raised beds. More 70F+ days in 1982 though, another Nino December.

I'm stuck using Dothan, 47 miles south of me, as my "official" record station, since none are closer. It tends to be slightly warmer in summer and cooler in winter. It also gets less rain than up here for reasons that are a mystery to me. The records go back to 1902, but only 1902-04 with a gap through `1937. Apparently the Weather Bureau office caught on fire right before Christmas, 1936, and the cowards ran out of the office without saving the records first. Given these limitations, the average December temperature is 49.8, so your 51.2 comfortably beats that. Quite amazing when you consider the distance in miles and latitude. We have a tremendous range in averages, going from an official 60.9 this year down to 43.3 in 1963. Both are El Nino years, although 1963 was only moderate compared to our super Godzilla one this past year. Of the top five heaviest December rainfall years, all were also El Nino years except for 1927, which may have also been one, but I don't know that. The only time the monthly rainfall was over 13 inches was 1953, 1964, and 1927, two out of three known El Nino years. Dothan was south of the rain band that persistently assaulted me, so they "only" got 8.91", still double the average and high enough to rank seventh. What does stand out to me is that the top five warmest Decembers before 2015 were 1956, 84, 46, 2008, and 1967. Every one of those were moderate to strong La Nina years. It seems that temperatures definitely did not follow a typical El Nino pattern, and goes along with my idea that past El Nino climatology may not be a very accurate predictor of where we're headed in 2016.

It looks like lows should stay just at or a little above freezing the next couple of nights with highs in the low to mid-50's...and no rain. I already have 0.01 measured for 2016, and that would be quite enough for the next week.
Quoting 87. BayFog:


NIce negative tilt to the midlevel flow at the West Coast north of the predicted 500 mb keel of the jet. Impulses lined up all the way to Asia.


Negative tilt trofs.......rock my world!
#115/103:
We have maintained a small solar 12V system at the cabin for many years.
Two 2' x 4' solar panels (purchased 'used' in about 1995) are still pumping about 6-8 amps in full sun into whatever batteries we have there.
The battery used now (Two iterations of Trogan 6V arrays having worn out) is one AGM given to us by our occasional 'drop-in' marine electrical engineer - he replaces the batteries on fancy yachts and keeps the ones that test OK. This as close as I can find:
Nautilus Group 31 AGM Deep Cycle Battery is a premium AGM technology provides extra power and durability with no maintenance.
Good luck - it Is worth the effort and expense!
Quoting 93. Dakster:

Anyone else see the tide roll in last night? It was Spartan out...
Yes, Michigan State got flattened. It was a meaningless game for the Tide after a less than stellar season. As an Ohio State fan, even though they won an equally meaningless game over the Irish, I always like to see Michigan State flattened. :-)
Quoting 102. Dakster:



There goes the price of red meat... and dairy products.
Dairy cows are not usually sold for meat, and you can't legally sell dead ones in any case. They'll have to get buried. There about 790,000 adult dairy cows in New Mexico and Texas according to both state's dairy association. According to the story, about 15,000 adult cows have died and maybe 15,000 juveniles. Even if it turns out 30,000 have died, that's not a big dent in the cow population, and not a whole lot more than die every winter in those two states. It's one of the perils of open range feeding. My BIL, the farmer, keeps his cows in the barns when the weather is bad, and they don't die. It does cost more to produce milk this way though. You can be sure, however, that both state's dairy associations are already preparing their cases as to why they should get higher subsidies for milk production due to this tragedy.
Per 12Z GFS First storm pretty much misses Soo Cal, but does help Northern Baja Peninsula who are just as dry as Soo Cal. Maybe a drip drip drip for Soo Cal.

XKCD explains 2 degrees C of warming.

Next two-three weeks, we'll probably be watching the flooding situation. Anyone remember me fussing about Thebes? (and Cairo and New Madrid) well they did have a small levee overtopped in Thebes, IL.

Some ACE action in NOLA and points north, in prep for the water that's coming. Missouri is a mess in the aftermath, though, especially in and around St. Louis.
@post 127- the deniers, ( wait, what's the PC term for them? Skeptics? I certainly don't wanna step on anyone's pink-painted tootsies) - anyway, THOSE folks ( can I call'm flat-earthers? Dino-deniers?) ANYWAY-

They'll just say that palm trees at the North Pole will be good for vacationers and the travel industry. A good reason to build more cruise ships.

Speaking of cruise ships, did anyone see that elevator accident?
A little more rain for Soo Cal next Tue/Wed

Yikes.. to #129
Quoting 123. ycd0108:

#115/103:
We have maintained a small solar 12V system at the cabin for many years.
Two 2' x 4' solar panels (purchased 'used' in about 1995) are still pumping about 6-8 amps in full sun into whatever batteries we have there.
The battery used now (Two iterations of Trogan 6V arrays having worn out) is one AGM given to us by our occasional 'drop-in' marine electrical engineer - he replaces the batteries on fancy yachts and keeps the ones that test OK. This as close as I can find:
Nautilus Group 31 AGM Deep Cycle Battery is a premium AGM technology provides extra power and durability with no maintenance.
Good luck - it Is worth the effort and expense!
I'd love to be able to use AGM's in my array but the stock market is going to have to do a lot better before I can afford those. You also have a considerable difference in reserve capacity and weight. A Trojan 105, my tried and true standby, runs about $135 on sale, weighs 62 pounds, and has 447 minutes at 25 amps. The closest real AGM 6 volt battery I can find is a Lifeline 8A4DLTP, which costs about $500 if you can find them on sale, only has 330 minutes at 25 amps, barely fits in my battery tray, and weighs 129 pounds (!). Not a problem with a stationary installation but a big problem in a boat or RV. A T-105 generally lasts about six years, and a Lifeline will last maybe a year longer, although it survives with less maintenance. In my application, an AGM battery doesn't makes sense, and it would really only makes sense in an installation with long idle times. However, for free, they are the perfect battery. :-)
2'-4" Rain next 10 days with a few locations to possibly 5". Soo Cal can handle that. Burn areas may have a few issues.

Quoting 127. JohnLonergan:

XKCD explains 2 degrees C of warming.


Looks like he's trying to explain between 8 and 10 degrees of warming and mucking it up with "ice age units". Not the most understandable graphic I've ever seen.
Quoting 133. HurricaneHunterJoe:

2'-4" Rain next 10 days with a few locations to possibly 5". Soo Cal can handle that. Burn areas may have a few issues.



Nice thing too is that temps aloft should stay cold enough to really build up the Sierra snowpack.
Quoting 129. aquak9:

@post 127- the deniers, ( wait, what's the PC term for them? Skeptics? I certainly don't wanna step on anyone's pink-painted tootsies) - anyway, THOSE folks ( can I call'm flat-earthers? Dino-deniers?) ANYWAY-

They'll just say that palm trees at the North Pole will be good for vacationers and the travel industry. A good reason to build more cruise ships.

Speaking of cruise ships, did anyone see that elevator accident?
I saw the story. Sounded like a terrible accident, although the "horrified" family lined right up to take a video and now are probably off to a lawyer's office for horror compensation. You want something to worry about? There are at least 10 cruise ships sailing around at any one time that are larger than our largest aircraft carrier, and carry between 6,000 and 9,000 passengers and crew. A Nimitz class carrier carries about 5,000 crew and sails with a whole carrier group of ships that are ready to give assistance should any disaster befall the ship. One of these cruise ships sails with nothing but some radios, a sat phone, and a casino. Unless one of them happens to be sailing within a couple hundred miles of a carrier group, there is no rescue agency anywhere in the world that will be able to save those passengers in the event of a disaster. It's going to happen some day, as sure as there are floods on the MIssissippi.
Carnival ship of horrors... I did see that water puppy...

JohnLonergan - That about sums it up, the question is how fast and when will we get +1 IAU?

Ships are already traversing the northern passages - and that is scary enough of a change.
You could not PAY ME ENOUGH to set foot on a cruise ship, never never never...
Quoting 135. BayFog:


Nice thing too is that temps aloft should stay cold enough to really build up the Sierra snowpack.
Looks like the storm will have snow levels skirting with 5,000 feet elevation. For my brother in Reno, a couple of hundred feet is going to mean the difference between some rain and slush or a pretty significant snow. No matter what happens there, it should be a good storm from lake level and above. I think El Nino is just about to get cranked up there. Of course, I moved to Alabama to escape winter floods, and you've seen how that has worked out. :-0
Quoting 138. aquak9:

You could not PAY ME ENOUGH to set foot on a cruise ship, never never never...
Eh. I've been on a couple of cruises. I'd rather be back on my sailboat, but the food is a lot better on a cruise ship. I just make sure I have the life jackets out and accessible, make sure they have a working strobe and a whistle, always carry my small but bright LED flashlight, and memorize how many decks and turns it takes to get to the nearest lifeboat. I don't know if I'd make it back to dry land, but I'd die trying.
Quoting 138. aquak9:

You could not PAY ME ENOUGH to set foot on a cruise ship, never never never...


Only been on a couple of "day" cruises - one of which was a large yacht that I got married on.... I have mixed feeling about long cruises. You just hear about too many things bad happening. With sea level rise we may be replacing roads and cars with channels and boats. Hopefully not in my lifetime though. Would hate to have to take sea sickness pills just to go shopping.
Quoting 110. HaoleboySurfEC:

Thanks Sar. It is a 110v plug in. Probably costs me $250 to run for 6 months, but I would like to run it more than I currently do. So, if I could get a 7 year payback I'm good. I could also use it to power the irrigation well pump when I finally get that dug (or dig myself).

Eventually wifey and I are planning to build a mountain home and we would like to go off the grid, so I need to start understanding the technology on a small scale. Heck, I'm doing more and more freelance travel and work from home so it is becoming more and more of a reality each day. Wifey is an RN and you know there are plenty of hospitals everywhere. I just need to stay within a couple of hours of a major airport.


Having a nurse wife is a good thing. My late wife was an RN and my fiance is an LPN, so I have some affinity for nurses. They are in probably the most mobile profession on earth. There will be an increasing flood tide of geezers like me that need nursing care so they will never want for a job. The swimming pool pump is probably as good a project as any to get your feet wet...sorry for the pun...with solar. Really living off grid is a big deal, and you'll really need to understand solar, plus a lot of other things. My suggestion would be to buy a decent used RV, trailer or motorhome. Equip it just like you would your mountain home but on a smaller scale, and do some traveling, staying away from hookups as long as possible. You'll learn a lot about power issues when the lights go out in the middle of the night, and you'll have a place to live while you build your home.
Can you imagine how many different hands have touched the food on a cruise ship, before it's eaten?
Quoting 141. Dakster:



Only been on a couple of "day" cruises - one of which was a large yacht that I got married on.... I have mixed feeling about long cruises. You just hear about too many things bad happening. With sea level rise we may be replacing roads and cars with channels and boats. Hopefully not in my lifetime though. Would hate to have to take sea sickness pills just to go shopping.
I have a co-worker that use to work on a cruise.He said half the ship one time got food poisoning with a clogged up system...made for a pretty unsanitary trip for those unlucky to be on board.
Quoting 138. aquak9:

You could not PAY ME ENOUGH to set foot on a cruise ship, never never never...

I don't even GET the idea of time on a cruise ship. Unless it's mostly about boozing, in which case, not applicable since I rarely drink.

Quoting 124. sar2401:

Yes, Michigan State got flattened. It was a meaningless game for the Tide after a less than stellar season. As an Ohio State fan, even though they won an equally meaningless game over the Irish, I always like to see Michigan State flattened. :-)
By meaningless game you mean the semi-final game of the national championship and by less than stellar you mean their 1 loss record.
Quoting 134. sar2401:

Looks like he's trying to explain between 8 and 10 degrees of warming and mucking it up with "ice age units". Not the most understandable graphic I've ever seen.


What land mass are the Palm trees going to grow on at the North Pole?
Quoting 143. aquak9:

Can you imagine how many different hands have touched the food on a cruise ship, before it's eaten?


I know cruise ships are unique because so many people are packed into such a small area. When people start getting sick it's hard to isolate them.

But the other day I watched a worker at McDonalds put about a dozen raw/frozen meat patties on the grill. Then he immediately started making sandwiches and putting orders together. He was touching everything in that kitchen with his raw hamburger covered hands.

On the weather front, we should finally see some more normal January like temperatures starting tomorrow.
Quoting 143. aquak9:

Can you imagine how many different hands have touched the food on a cruise ship, before it's eaten?
Can you imagine how many times the frozen food at Walmart has thawed and been refrozen before you get it home?

Can you imagine how many low paid workers in Mexico put together the brakes on your car?

Can you imagine how many outright dolts are operating the power grid today?

Can you imagine how much that driver coming right at you has had to drink in the last hour alone?

Can you imagine how many pilots with suicidal ideations might be flying your plane today? Not to mention the whole issue of what's airline food really made of.

You want more to worry about? I've got a million of 'em. :-)
Quoting 146. nymore:


By meaningless game you mean the semi-final game of the national championship and by less than stellar you mean their 1 loss record.
I meant meaningless in terms of their chances of making it to the championship and less than stellar compared to our usual no loss seasons. It's all in perspective.
(and this is why I grow my OWN vegetables)

- and the scariest one of all, sar?

Can we imagine who we might REALLY be blogging with?
Quoting 145. BayFog:


I don't even GET the idea of time on a cruise ship. Unless it's mostly about boozing, in which case, not applicable since I rarely drink.
There are all kinds of things you can do on a cruise ship. Lose money at the casino, go to a pottery class, shop at the onboard mall, oogle babes at the pool, stand in line for everything, get mugged in strange and exotic places, learn the location of the nearest embassy, go through metal detectors and pat downs every time you get back on board the ship, lean over the rail and wonder how far down the water is...you just have to experience the excitement to understand.
Quoting 151. aquak9:

(and this is why I grow my OWN vegetables)

- and the scariest one of all, sar?

Can we imagine who we might REALLY be blogging with?
Look, don't bring up really scary things like that...
heh heheh heh hehhee
Quoting 147. largeeyes:



What land mass are the Palm trees going to grow on at the North Pole?
They are the buoyant palm trees with really, really deep roots.
Quoting 148. Sfloridacat5:



I know cruise ships are unique because so many people are packed into such a small area. When people start getting sick it's hard to isolate them.

But the other day I watched a worker at McDonalds put about a dozen raw/frozen meat patties on the grill. Then he immediately started making sandwiches and putting orders together. He was touching everything in that kitchen with his raw hamburger covered hands.

On the weather front, we should finally see some more normal January like temperatures starting tomorrow.


I went on a Panama canal cruise and on the first morning, I realized I had a cold. I was worried about the other passengers because some looked frail, so I carefully used the hand sanitizer before breakfast, didn't talk to anyone, and sat sniffling at a remote table. Then a waitress came along and picked up my germy water glass with her hands, filled it, and moved on to the next table and did the same thing. The germs were off on their adventure.

The weather comment part is that we did see a faint green flash on the trip.
Quoting 150. sar2401:

I meant meaningless in terms of their chances of making it to the championship and less than stellar compared to our usual no loss seasons. It's all in perspective.

They are in the championsip game against Clemson on Jan 11 and when is the last time Alabama went undefeated. I could be wrong but I believe it was 2009 so yea it is usual not to lose.  LOL
Quoting 115. Xyrus2000:



You're going to want to swap out those car batteries. Car batteries really aren't designed to be used in this fashion and will likely fail in short order. The thin spongy plates in the typical car battery are designed for rapid high current discharge and recharge cycling, not deep cycling or extended output.

Better choices would be golf cart/marine batteries. These are deep cycle batteries designed for extended periods of use and deep discharging. They should last you a good while and for your purposes they would be relatively cheap.

I agree with you entirely on that about better quality batteries but you can learn a lot from a very basic system and then improve it a lot as you go along.
Having said that the batteries on my 1000 watt shed system were normal large car batteries and they have lasted 8 years and I am just about to replace them. System runs a 650 Watt cement mixer very well.
Deep cycle solar batteries can be very expensive, at about $400 each and a lot more for good heavy duty ones like are used on fork lift trucks.

At the end of the day it all depends on how much you want to, or can spend and most important how much starting power you need to draw, plus the power consumption of the pump.
Quoting 147. largeeyes:



What land mass are the Palm trees going to grow on at the North Pole?


In pots on Santa's front porch (Guaranteed to face south)
Quoting 50. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. Happy New Year! A dreary cloudy day, 42 degrees, here in west central Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: steak, eggs and hash browns, Belgian waffles with strawberries or powdered sugar, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, cheesy grits with shrimp, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, Monte Cristo Eggs Benedict, apple snapple oatmeal, cheese danishes, Tea or Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Every time I read your breakfast options, I think, I should be living in NOLA
161. MahFL
Quoting 143. aquak9:

Can you imagine how many different hands have touched the food on a cruise ship, before it's eaten?


Not much different than the billions of people touching stuff at your local fast food joint.
162. MahFL
Quoting 145. BayFog:


I don't even GET the idea of time on a cruise ship. Unless it's mostly about boozing, in which case, not applicable since I rarely drink.


Cruise ships are like floating towns, plenty of stuff to do and see, also you get to visit ports.
My mother law has literally been around the world, she once went on a 90 day cruise, had to pack for 3 seasons.
Quoting 161. MahFL:


Not much different than the billions of people touching stuff at your local fast food joint.

I haven't eaten fast food in decades, Michael.

Not all of us live at bars and eat chicken wings and beer.
Quoting 163. aquak9:


I haven't eaten fast food in decades, Michael.

Not all of us live at bars and eat chicken wings and beer.
I stopped eating McDonald's.Its one of the best things a person can do for their bodies.The burgers and "chicken" nuggets have always been mystery meat to me.
Quoting 140. sar2401:

Eh. I've been on a couple of cruises. I'd rather be back on my sailboat, but the food is a lot better on a cruise ship. I just make sure I have the life jackets out and accessible, make sure they have a working strobe and a whistle, always carry my small but bright LED flashlight, and memorize how many decks and turns it takes to get to the nearest lifeboat. I don't know if I'd make it back to dry land, but I'd die trying.


And I thought you had a 200 meter yacht with chef and staff.......Prime Rib with bone in please! ; )
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

I stopped eating McDonald's.Its one of the best things a person can do for their bodies.The burgers and "chicken" nuggets have always been mystery meat to me.


Micky D's chicken nuggets are a tad hard to discern....I had Carls Jr Chicken Sticks for the first time and I could actually tell they were 100% white chicken breast.
All this talk about global warming is a bunch of crap. We finally got some cool weather in Florida for Christmas, so how about you losers living in your mothers basement run a comb through your hair and get a job instead of posting made up weather facts. Go Dolphins! Trump 2016!
Troll alert!
All this talk about global warming is a bunch of crap.

Really? oh thank goodness. I was worried sick.
All this talk here in Florida about global warming is ridiculous. Sure it has been 80 degrees here all winter, but it was warm in the past and will be warm in the future. Back in 1977 it snowed here which means that colder winters are possible in the future, as it has happened in the past. All you ignorant bigots and Clinton lovers need to open your eyes and watch the Weather Channel for once
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

I stopped eating McDonald's.Its one of the best things a person can do for their bodies.The burgers and "chicken" nuggets have always been mystery meat to me.


When I was a kid I used to ask for "Plain" burgers with no mustard or ketchup or special sauce. Just meat between bread. But this meant they had to cook a nice fresh one special.

Now I hardly eat McDonald's either but need to cut back at home.

Incidentally I drew the line when kids were early school age and decided at home, no fast food unless mommy and daddy were exhausted. If you are just short of time, you can cook a dinner faster than you can schlep down to the local fastfood place and back and said dinner is both healthier and cheaper. As a guy I just took it as a manly challenge that I could and henceforth would beat fast food for speed. But I also had a lot of 20 minute recipes. (for a guy "a lot" is just plural.. I had about four)
Here is sar's little sailboat


Quoting 172. mruel89:

Trump will solve global warming! The future is bright and much cooler with the changes he will make!


Global warming is a big hoax. There is nothing to solve.
Quoting 172. mruel89:

Trump will solve global warming! The future is bright and much cooler with the changes he will make!
chillax is required lets not be so haste to decide
Quoting 170. WeatherExpert666:

All this talk here in Florida about global warming is ridiculous. Sure it has been 80 degrees here all winter, but it was warm in the past and will be warm in the future. Back in 1977 it snowed here which means that colder winters are possible in the future, as it has happened in the past. All you ignorant bigots and Clinton lovers need to open your eyes and watch the Weather Channel for once


All good lies contain huge swatches of the truth. It is true weather is EXTREMELY variable and a lot of really weird weather including hot spells (note the incredibly warm March of 1910 in a cold year) is not due to global warming. It does not follow though that colder past means colder future, the 70s were colder than the 80s, the 80s were colder than the 90s, the 90s were colder than the aughts and the teens so far have been the warmest decade to date. The 80s BTW, the warmest decade globally (to 1990) since reliable global temp estimates became available in the 1870s, had more arctic outbreaks than any other decade prior or following.

Also note, there is a very clear warming signal in flood events esp. at high latitudes and in high latitude temperature extremes. The Arctic weather is definitely showing a different baseline now than it used to especially in Autumn( three weeks later), and Winter (much more variable temperatures than used to occur with less reliable thick ice even late in the winter season),
Great day in Soo Cal for the Rose Bowl....just a tad chilly.......not so much of a good game.......Stanford 38 Iowa 0
Quoting 172. mruel89:
Trump will solve global warming! The future is bright and much cooler with the changes he will make!


Now THAT'S scary. Not the statement- no, now that's just plain silly. What's scary is that these people actually:

work and live among us!!
Quoting 172. mruel89:

Trump will solve global warming! The future is bright and much cooler with the changes he will make!


His policy of bomb bomb bomb the oil fields may just force us to use more renewable methods since the cost will be very high to get that oil flowing again. I see that blind trust of his investing in renewbles.
Quoting 178. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Great day in Soo Cal for the Rose Bowl....just a tad chilly.......not so much of a good game.......Stanford 38 Iowa 0


That is what we call "football weather" When it's nice, in the 70s, it's too hot for optimal football.
(And August practices are another matter entirely!!)
Quoting 174. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Here is sar's little sailboat ...

Skimming through the new blog to catch up I just LMAO, guys! Feel plussed, everybody in this boat thread :-) See you later this weekend, and thanks for the nice cyclone entry, Doc; happy new year to you too.
Quoting 179. aquak9:



Now THAT'S scary. Not the statement- no, now that's just plain silly. What's scary is that these people actually:

work and live among us!!


LOL.......sad but true
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Can you imagine how many times the frozen food at Walmart has thawed and been refrozen before you get it home?

Can you imagine how many low paid workers in Mexico put together the brakes on your car?

Can you imagine how many outright dolts are operating the power grid today?

Can you imagine how much that driver coming right at you has had to drink in the last hour alone?

Can you imagine how many pilots with suicidal ideations might be flying your plane today? Not to mention the whole issue of what's airline food really made of.

You want more to worry about? I've got a million of 'em. :-)


Good points, except apparently you haven't flown in a while. There is no airline food... Maybe first class... But too many times I have been on planes where buying food wasn't even an option.

You really don't want to know what's been added to your food at any restaurant.
Ireland -

ENDA Kenny has visited some of the areas worst hit by Storm Frank as the clean-up continues.

“To see first-hand the scale of the flooding throughout the country … clearly the countryside is saturated, there are thousands of location affected”, he told reporters.

Link
This could be a large storm, and it wont be a fast moving system..

NASA warns El Nino may cause 'weather chaos'
Despite the devastating storms across the country the last few weeks, NASA is forecasting the worst is yet to come.

Michael Mann, author of "Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change" joins to discuss. Duration: 5:18
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Can you imagine how many times the frozen food at Walmart has thawed and been refrozen before you get it home?

Can you imagine how many low paid workers in Mexico put together the brakes on your car?

Can you imagine how many outright dolts are operating the power grid today?

Can you imagine how much that driver coming right at you has had to drink in the last hour alone?

Can you imagine how many pilots with suicidal ideations might be flying your plane today? Not to mention the whole issue of what's airline food really made of.

You want more to worry about? I've got a million of 'em. :-)


Well, here's all that wind to blow your sailboat around.
Decent signal by the operational and ensemble models for a potential winter storm around mid-month, with the favorable teleconnections. ECMWF EPS 12z showcasing a full latitude trough just west of the Mississippi River Valley.

DRY FORECAST PERSISTS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND S ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS BY WED MORNING. SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE JET REALLY
INCREASES WED NIGHT INTO THUR OUT OF MEXICO INTO S TX WITH SE TX
IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM THAN THE GFS BY ABOUT 6-12 HRS. DECIDED TO ADJUST RAIN
CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT WED NIGHT INTO THUR GIVEN THE TIMING
DIFFERENCES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS BUT INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED
SO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SMALL. THIS SYSTEM LIFTS EAST THUR
NIGHT INTO NEXT FRIDAY WITH A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ENDING
RAIN CHANCES. AGAIN WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS WITH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO DETERMINE ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER
DETAILS. OVERALL THERE IS SOME GROWING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST
HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IF THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY.


This is an excerpt from an early morning Houston WX disco on Fri. Jan, 1, 2016. I don't really understand it. Are they looking for a wind/rain threat? Please explain.
Quoting 187. RobertWC:

NASA warns El Nino may cause 'weather chaos'
Despite the devastating storms across the country the last few weeks, NASA is forecasting the worst is yet to come.

Michael Mann, author of "Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change" joins to discuss. Duration: 5:18
climate chaos faster and faster
and its already here
Quoting 184. Dakster:



Good points, except apparently you haven't flown in a while. There is no airline food... Maybe first class... But too many times I have been on planes where buying food wasn't even an option.

You really don't want to know what's been added to your food at any restaurant.

I flew TAP between Lisbon and Newark in October, in steerage class. We were served two meals, the second one was more of a snack, with choice of beverage which included wine. I was happy with the food (and the wine), but then, when it comes to food, I'm pretty easy to please.
Quoting 174. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Here is sar's little sailboat




That's beautiful!
198. MahFL
Quoting 163. aquak9:


I haven't eaten fast food in decades, Michael.

Not all of us live at bars and eat chicken wings and beer.


You missed my point as always. 100's of people can touch things and you won't necessarily get sick.
Quoting 192. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and its already here

This is true..There is the likelihood of a major winter storm. Ice is probably going to be bad...jmo

Quoting 136. sar2401:

I saw the story. Sounded like a terrible accident, although the "horrified" family lined right up to take a video and now are probably off to a lawyer's office for horror compensation. You want something to worry about? There are at least 10 cruise ships sailing around at any one time that are larger than our largest aircraft carrier, and carry between 6,000 and 9,000 passengers and crew. A Nimitz class carrier carries about 5,000 crew and sails with a whole carrier group of ships that are ready to give assistance should any disaster befall the ship. One of these cruise ships sails with nothing but some radios, a sat phone, and a casino. Unless one of them happens to be sailing within a couple hundred miles of a carrier group, there is no rescue agency anywhere in the world that will be able to save those passengers in the event of a disaster. It's going to happen some day, as sure as there are floods on the MIssissippi.

Next thing you'll be telling us is that high rise hotels can catch on fire.
201. MahFL
Quoting 178. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Great day in Soo Cal for the Rose Bowl....just a tad chilly.......not so much of a good game.......Stanford 38 Iowa 0


One sided rubbish in fact.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Can you imagine how many pilots with suicidal ideations might be flying your plane today?
Every week tens of thousands of planes takeoff and land . One guy last year is so far from normal as be outside the subject of concern.

But this pearl is just wonderful -

Can you imagine how many outright dolts are operating the power grid today?

Well, there's a whole flock of them running the Brown's Ferry nuclear plant just North of you.
Supplying electrons so you can make these broad statements , I for one hope they don't screw the pooch tonight.

As for the drunks, amen .
But one other hazard, those giant strips of tire treads on the road.
Which are know as "alligators" .

Do not hang out around the back end of 18 wheelers.

At freeway speeds. The good tires are on the tractor. The best tires are steer tires. The recaps and old tires are on the tandems. The 8 wheels at the end of the trailer. When they fail, a giant ribbon of heavy rubber , flies up to 19 feet in the air. Weighting 70 to 100 lbs. At 70 mph , more than enough energy to come threw your wind shield, and kill you instantly.

Do not hang out around the back end of 18 wheelers.
Quoting 189. Drakoen:

Decent signal by the operational and ensemble models for a potential winter storm around mid-month, with the favorable teleconnections. ECMWF EPS 12z showcasing a full latitude trough just west of the Mississippi River Valley.


Happy New year Drak..Subtropical jet coming into the southern U.S. will add some energy..Notice the width of the system, it goes offshore the east coast, all the way to Kansas.

80 days till spring, and I'm counting!
Took a minute to go through and tally up the tornado count by state in 2015. With NWS offices still submitting finalized data to the NCEI, this count is still preliminary. I'll probably make a nicer-looking map and more charts a few months from now when everything is set in stone.

I wonder if Joaquin will be upgraded to a 160mph cat 5 in post season analysis.I'm highly doubtful........it probably was one briefly before the HH got into the storm.
Quoting 204. hydrus:


rain gfs out to jan 11 snow at bottom then ice


Quoting 199. hydrus:

This is true..There is the likelihood of a major winter storm. Ice is probably going to be bad...jmo




Is that a picture of your winter storm?
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Took a minute to go through and tally up the tornado count by state in 2015. With NWS offices still submitting finalized data to the NCEI, this count is still preliminary. I'll probably make a nicer-looking map and more charts a few months from now when everything is set in stone.


texas appears to be tornado capital; for 2015
Indiana was sixth in tornado's it didn't seem to be that busy in 2015, lots of showers in the spring into summer that kept the daytime heating down, but besides that I'm sure many of these tornado's were on radar only.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

I have over 400, 000 miles in my log books driving. And when I taught my nephews, the drunks were at the top of the list. But it's the frozen bridge, or no sleep that kills you , or being too close to 18 wheelers .

I was in the back VW beetle once we did a 180 on bridge on 285 . Near Crow Hill . In Colorado.
The guy driving was a moron, it took 10 years off me , I'm really 76 just from those few seconds on that sinking bridge.

When I first started driving the lower 48 , I saw a woman on the Donner Summit do the same thing. She was about 8 feet off my left front fender . Passing me. She got backwards , and looked right at me. The most scared face I have ever seen. For some reason I whirled my right finger. As I was on my brakes. She did the 360 , and got pointed down hill.

When they make you chain up on the Donner Summit , they are not just the heavy hand of government. You won't the pass if you don't.

I will never forget that woman;s face Donner Summit
Quoting 191. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

climate chaos faster and faster


Preaching to the choir.
That troublemaking little Spanish boy is finally coming to town. We've got 4 storms lined up within the next 7 days...

Storm #1


Storm #2


Storm #3


Storm #4


Total precip


BRING. IT.
Quoting 149. sar2401:

Can you imagine how many times the frozen food at Walmart has thawed and been refrozen before you get it home?


I have yet to get sick from frozen food


Can you imagine how many low paid workers in Mexico put together the brakes on your car?


Never had brake failure on a car less than 8 years old. Partial brake failure on my minivan was scary and on top of other issues I decided I'd had it.. traded it in and got one from another company.



Can you imagine how many outright dolts are operating the power grid today?


this one scares me !!
Can you imagine how much that driver coming right at you has had to drink in the last hour alone?

Always a risk. this scares me too. Or how much the driver smoked, shot, snorted or didn't sleep.


Can you imagine how many pilots with suicidal ideations might be flying your plane today? Not to mention the whole issue of what's airline food really made of.


Not a worry. There are meteorites headed towards us too maybe but I can't worry about low probability events esp with the other really scary points you made earlier.



You want more to worry about? I've got a million of 'em. :-)
Gee.. Actual frost on car tops here in Maryland while walking the dogs. I'd forgotten what it looked like.

One more thing about the Donner Summit.

I was on drilling rig at Fallon , Nev. On my down days I read in the library . I crossed the 40 mile desert a lot.
On the Carson River is a place called "Rag Town" . Just East of Fallon. This where the people that crossed that desert found fresh water

There is a federal government report about all this . Which I read in a little library in Fallon, Nevada.
218. bwi
Zika virus reported in Puerto Rico (with video) Will it arrive in Florida by this summer?
Quoting 216. georgevandenberghe:

Gee.. Actual frost on car tops here in Maryland while walking the dogs. I'd forgotten what it looked like.
I remember an early frost in the first half of October and can't recall one since.
@219- It's probably already here; we just don't know it yet.
"Frost," woodcut by Bertha Boynton Lum, 1920

Snowfall for the Sierra's the next 10 days...........a whole lotta white shades= 4 feet or more over the highest terrain........some kinda nice should it verify!

Quoting 217. RobertWC:

One more thing about the Donner Summit.

I was on drilling rig at Fallon , Nev. On my down days I read in the library . I crossed the 40 mile desert a lot.
On the Carson River is a place called "Rag Town" . Just East of Fallon. This where the people that crossed that desert found fresh water

There is a federal government report about all this . Which I read in a little library in Fallon, Nevada.


Your stoves, your sideboards. your oxen were worn out . They all ended up in this desert.
It was a national event. They send out an party to see the results,

They counted every thing these people gave up to make Rag Town, is on the 40 mile desert.
Post #214

BRING IT ON!

And bookoo snow for my favorite mountain chain. Looks like snow above about 5000-6000 ft....perfect! Just keep the warm Pineapple Express atmospheric river away from the snow.
I have posted a video clip of a man's pro-fracking argument in comment #1964 of my blog. Please evaluate and discuss.
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Took a minute to go through and tally up the tornado count by state in 2015. With NWS offices still submitting finalized data to the NCEI, this count is still preliminary. I'll probably make a nicer-looking map and more charts a few months from now when everything is set in stone.



A better comparison would be how many tornadoes relative to area in each state.
Quoting 220. BaltimoreBrian:

I remember an early frost in the first half of October and can't recall one since.

Oct 17 I think, then a few light ones in mid November. The November ones killed my potatoes. Then a lot of light ones the first days of December. One hard frost Dec 20 or so, enough so I covered and moved my citrus and took my porch tomato in. Full grown lettuce showed signifcant damage. Younger lettuce and the more cold hardy Rouge D'Hiver showed no damage. None since till tonight. The porch tomato has a lunchload of ripe cherry tomatoes on it.. one more decent serving.

Major chill coming early this week though.
I remember frost on Oct 19th, and it has been colder since, but don't recall seeing any frost. I'm in Federal Hill downtown.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
850 PM PST FRI JAN 1 2016

...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK...

...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN RETURNS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS AN ACTIVE PATTERN
DEVELOPS.

Quoting 196. ACSeattle:


I flew TAP between Lisbon and Newark in October, in steerage class. We were served two meals, the second one was more of a snack, with choice of beverage which included wine. I was happy with the food (and the wine), but then, when it comes to food, I'm pretty easy to please.


I flew American from Miami to Seattle and there was no food on board. Not even to buy. That is a LONG flight, longer than MIA to LAX. And the MIA to LAX flight is hit and miss with food too. It isn't like it used to be. Since I fly back and forth often, I know what to expect (now) so I come prepared.

And even when they do have food and you get lucky that they have what you want left, it is more of a snack than a meal... It isn't a complaint, just a fact/observation. Until I started flying from MIA to ANC, it would never be an issue. But I do need and want to eat at one point in the 16 - 24 hours it takes to go door to door.

Quoting 234. Dakster:



I flew American from Miami to Seattle and there was no food on board. Not even to buy. That is a LONG flight, longer than MIA to LAX. And the MIA to LAX flight is hit and miss with food too. It isn't like it used to be. Since I fly back and forth often, I know what to expect (now) so I come prepared.

And even when they do have food and you get lucky that they have what you want left, it is more of a snack than a meal... It isn't a complaint, just a fact/observation. Until I started flying from MIA to ANC, it would never be an issue. But I do need and want to eat at one point in the 16 - 24 hours it takes to go door to door.




I always fly British Airways between IAD (Dulles Airport) and England for occasional business and get two meals each way. It's a six hour flight there and seven to eight back.
236. beell
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Took a minute to go through and tally up the tornado count by state in 2015. With NWS offices still submitting finalized data to the NCEI, this count is still preliminary. I'll probably make a nicer-looking map and more charts a few months from now when everything is set in stone.




Quite a bit of difference from the SPC site.

178 in KS, and 46 in IA most notable.
63 in MS.
17 in IN

Link
Quoting 227. BaltimoreBrian:

Convection was never so stunningly gorgeous (video)
I could literally watch that all day.

I just wish sometimes that the author would keep it on a single clip for longer. And also the over-the-top music that always accompanies these videos gets to be annoying. I mean, for me.. it's dramatic enough as it is. I don't need it pounded into my head.
Quoting 206. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Took a minute to go through and tally up the tornado count by state in 2015. With NWS offices still submitting finalized data to the NCEI, this count is still preliminary. I'll probably make a nicer-looking map and more charts a few months from now when everything is set in stone.





Tornado count ended up well below average in FL...
Quoting 189. Drakoen:

Decent signal by the operational and ensemble models for a potential winter storm around mid-month, with the favorable teleconnections. ECMWF EPS 12z showcasing a full latitude trough just west of the Mississippi River Valley.




Am looking forward to the upcoming cool period, rain, and the AO likely going well negative after well above average temps in the 80's every day with 70's dew points the past two weeks.
Quoting 233. BayFog:




Wish that puppy was aimed at Point Conception!
242. beell
2015 Top 10-Tornadoes per 10,000 sq mi (based on SPC numbers which are also preliminary)

KS 21.76
OK 16.16
IL 14.57
MS 13.43
TX 8.67
IA 8.23
LA 7.58
MO 6.97
AL 6.31
DE 5.12

Florida came in at 16th this year. Number one for the period 1991-2010


Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
914 PM PST FRI JAN 1 2016

NO BIG CHANGES FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST
WILL BE UNDERCUT BY THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON SUN/MON...WHICH WILL FEED
A STRING OF PACIFIC SHORTWAVES INTO CA. ENERGY WITH THE FIRST WAVE
WILL BE AIMED AT THE BAJA COAST...BUT MAY GIVE US SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SUBSEQUENT WAVES TUE...WED...AND FRI
WILL COME ASHORE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST...WHICH WILL BRING
BENEFICIAL RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA. THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS TIME THE WAVES DIFFERENTLY...SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL OCCUR OVER SOCAL.

LATEST FORECAST PW ON THE 18Z GFS HAS ONE INCH PLUMES AHEAD OF EACH
WAVE...SO GIVEN SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS WITH THESE FEATURES...SOME
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...
THESE WAVES WILL BE MOVING ALONG AT A DECENT CLIP...SO WIDESPREAD...
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR LIKELY. STILL...THE SUM OF
ALL OF THESE EVENTS THROUGH THE WEEK WILL GO A LONG WAY TO ALLEVIATE
SHORT-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LONGER-TERM DROUGHT
EFFECTS LIKE SUSTAINED FLOW IN AREA RIVERS AND RESERVOIR STORAGE
WILL NEED MORE PRECIP THROUGH THE WINTER TO SHOW MARKED IMPROVEMENT.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL...THE SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK COULD LEAVE 6 INCHES
OR MORE ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH MORE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DRIES THE REGION OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REEMERGES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
Quoting 229. BayFog:


A better comparison would be how many tornadoes relative to area in each state.

1950-2013
State Number/10k sq mi
Florida 9.59
Oklahoma 6.85
Indiana 6.41
Iowa 6.25
Louisiana 6.07
Mississippi 5.51
Texas 5.23
Delaware 5.18
Illinois 4.86
Nebraska 4.7
Quoting 172. mruel89:

Trump will solve global warming! The future is bright and much cooler with the changes he will make!


He most certainly will. And I will enjoy watching him do so while I eat donuts off of my horn. Because I'm a unicorn, and that's just what blogging unicorns do.
246. beell
"...With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports..."





Link
Quoting 237. Mediarologist:

I could literally watch that all day.

I just wish sometimes that the author would keep it on a single clip for longer. And also the over-the-top music that always accompanies these videos gets to be annoying. I mean, for me.. it's dramatic enough as it is. I don't need it pounded into my head.
I found the music much less annoying than listening to a couple of guys curse and scream like girls. :-)
Quoting 236. beell:



Quite a bit of difference from the SPC site.

178 in KS, and 46 in IA most notable.
63 in MS.
17 in IN

Link
Looks like the data is from their preliminary database. Is the same that we see on the daily SPC summary? If so, it's going to be filled with duplicates and unconfirmed tornado reports. Just from offhand memory, 32 tornadoes for Alabama seems too low.
Quoting 242. beell:

2015 Top 10-Tornadoes per 10,000 sq mi (based on SPC numbers which are also preliminary)

KS 21.76
OK 16.16
IL 14.57
MS 13.43
TX 8.67
IA 8.23
LA 7.58
MO 6.97
AL 6.31
DE 5.12

Florida came in at 16th this year. Number one for the period 1991-2010


Link
Surprisingly, Florida is not much higher than Maryland in that ranking, and Maryland beats all the other Southeast states. Looks like Kansas is still the best bet for a storm chase though. Probably why the market for white Ford rental vans is so strong there in May . :-)
250. beell
Quoting 248. sar2401:

Looks like the data is from their preliminary database. Is the same that we see on the daily SPC summary? If so, it's going to be filled with duplicates and unconfirmed tornado reports. Just from offhand memory, 32 tornadoes for Alabama seems too low.


True. The local storm reports alway contain errors but a lot of them true up pretty close a month or two post event (s).

And I don't mean to imply TA's work is incorrect-just some large discrepancies.
Quoting 246. beell:

"...With increased National Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the United States, the total number of EF-1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF-3 to EF-5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These tornadoes would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports..."





Link


TN has a high rate of strong tornadoes...probably a reason we are one of the top states in tornado fatalities. A lot of the twisters occur at night too. Night + Hills + Southern Folk who disbelieve all government = :(
Quoting 250. beell:



True. The local storm reports alway contain errors but a lot of them true up pretty close a month or two post event (s).

And I don't mean to imply TA's work is incorrect-just some large discrepancies.
You are a lot better than me when it comes to SPC stats. Is there some place they have the confirmed database? If so, how long does it take to produce it? Remember that tornado we were discussing in my county on Christmas Eve? Birmingham still hasn't done a survey because they claim it wasn't safe because of flooding. They did an extensive survey on two tornadoes that were about 20 minutes from the office however. Probably a coincidence. I'm getting the feeling there will never be a storm survey. It seems like local office performance has an effect on the numbers too.
Quoting 251. Astrometeor:



TN has a high rate of strong tornadoes...probably a reason we are one of the top states in tornado fatalities. A lot of the twisters occur at night too. Night + Hills + Southern Folk who disbelieve all government = :(
Note however that the map only goes through 2010, so we're not seeing the results of the 2011 outbreak. I suspect that would change the numbers somewhat. Since 2011 though, the numbers have been extraordinarily low for both our states, which is fine by me.
Quoting 247. sar2401:

I found the music much less annoying than listening to a couple of guys curse and scream like girls. :-)


That would be quite amusing actually if, over the beautiful convection time lapse there was a couple dudes going WHOOOAA HOLY %^&#! THAT'S SO *&#*IN AWSEOME!!! OMFG!!
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #14
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
18:00 PM FST January 2 2016
========================
Nearby Lau Islands (Fiji)

A STORM WARNING is now in force for Fulaga, Ogea, Vatoa, and Ono-i-lau

A GALE WARNING remains in force for Kabara, Namuka, Moce, and Oneata


At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 18.6S 176.2W has to minute sustained winds of 80 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent. Organization good. Outflow good to the south. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Severe Tropical cyclone Ula is being steered to the west southwest by a east northeast deep layer mean flow. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center pattern with b surround yields DT=5.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 19.4S 177.9W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.5S 179.2W - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.9S 179.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
Quoting 245. Xyrus2000:



He most certainly will. And I will enjoy watching him do so while I eat donuts off of my horn. Because I'm a unicorn, and that's just what blogging unicorns do.


Amazing, all this time I've been blogging with a unicorn and never knew.
Miii Goodnes that looks weird.....someone gonna get B-slapped...

Quoting 245. Xyrus2000:



He most certainly will. And I will enjoy watching him do so while I eat donuts off of my horn. Because I'm a unicorn, and that's just what blogging unicorns do.
Indeed...and the more donuts the Unicorn can hold wins the game...
Quoting 258. weesej:


Amazing, all this time I've been blogging with a unicorn and never knew.
I'm just here for the donuts.
Quoting 261. aquak9:

I'm just here for the donuts.
You are wonderful.
Quoting 261. aquak9:

I'm just here for the donuts.


Are they Krispy Kremes?

Cloudy and cool here today. It was nice working outside taking down the holiday decorations.
Quoting 189. Drakoen:

Decent signal by the operational and ensemble models for a potential winter storm around mid-month, with the favorable teleconnections. ECMWF EPS 12z showcasing a full latitude trough just west of the Mississippi River Valley.


In see a phasing event..Cold air behind the system is forecast to be right over the S.E..
nom-nom-nom

:)


(Is a donut the same as a wheelie?)
Saturday greetings from Europe: Lots of snow in Turkey, especially at their northern coast due to Black Sea effect (here numbers of their snow cover from this morning in mm). Here a video from Zonguldak:



Some snow in Germany as well where cold air in the (north-)east and warm Atlantic moist air from the (south-)west clash. I'm on the mild side with rain, and it will stay this way. No frost in the outlook for our part. The rain is welcome in the south to compensate the lack of precipitation of 2015, although days of wet greyness ahead aren't that thrilling for the mood of humans.


Current temps in Europe.


Wet and stormy weather misery in the British Isles will persist with one low after the other coming along over the North Atlantic for them. Above see the surface analysis for tomorrow.
268. Inyo
Donner Pass is not to be taken lightly. It has a point of eating people up who don't take it seriously. Or causing them to eat each other.

I remember being stuck on the wrong side of it trying to get home once... stopped near Truckee waiting to see if we could get through. We were stopped maybe a half hour or a bit more and in that time at least 4 inches of snow piled on our car.

We turned around and got a hotel in Reno.

Roads get bad here in Vermont but the majority of the people here have at least some idea of how to deal with it. Many if not most people driving over Donner Pass don't have a clue about driving in the snow. That's how they end up facing the wrong way on the road or worse. The funny thing is we never saw passenger cars slid off the road, not trucks, mini vans, etc. It was always an SUV in the ditch, usually a four wheel drive one. Often upside down.
Ula:





Could anyone wu-mail me with a list of their tropical weather bookmarks? Recently reset my computer and lost them all, would be a big help!
Euro and GFS continue to show something significant around the same time frame (January 11-12th).Why not have it snow during Christmas break when most people are off.
Good Morning Class!

Hopefully a good WET and SNOWY week for California!



This morning’s satellite image depicts a series of Pacific low pressure storm systems poised to impact California during much of the new work week. Mainly light precipitation is likely Sunday night through Monday morning, then from Tuesday through Thursday, there will be more widespread, and potentially heavy, precipitation. Heavy snow will also be possible in the mountains above roughly 5000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding from these repetitive rain storms, especially near recent wildfire burn scars.
Quoting 270. washingtonian115:

Euro and GFS continue to show something significant around the same time frame (January 11-12th).Why not have it snow during Christmas break when most people are off.
Nature loves the tricks.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
337 AM PST SAT JAN 2 2016


THE LEAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE LOOPS ABOUT
1200 MILES WEST OF SAN DIEGO. IT`S BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TO THE
EAST AS THE REX BLOCK BEGINS TO BREAK OFF TO THE NORTH OF
CALIFORNIA. LEAD TROUGH WILL APPROACH SOCAL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SPREADING ABUNDANT MOISTURE MAINLY IN THE MID AND HIGH
LEVELS INITIALLY...ACROSS THE REGION. SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL AFTER DARK SUNDAY EVENING. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL THEN BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING MONDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS TROUGH
PASSES ACROSS OUR REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT BUT THE
TROUGH IS PRETTY WEAK SO THAT OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS INITIAL SYSTEM...GENERALLY ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD INCH
FOR MOST AREAS...AND LESS IN THE DESERTS.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE A BRIEF DRY
SPELL THANKS TO TRANSITORY RIDGING WORKING ACROSS THE REGION.
VARIABLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE HOWEVER DUE TO ABUNDANT
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER TROUGHS (AT LEAST TWO DISTINCT
SYSTEMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER LATE WEEK SYSTEM) WILL
SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND MARCH INTO CALIFORNIA...FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE...STRONG DYNAMICS...WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. WE ARE
ALREADY THINKING ABOUT THE RISK FOR FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH THIS
SERIES OF TROUGHS...SINCE EACH SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS...OF NEW LIQUID PRECIPITATION.
IN ADDITION...COLDER AIR WILL BE MIXING IN PROGRESSIVELY WITH EACH
SYSTEM...WITH SNOW LEVELS BEGINNING ON MONDAY BETWEEN 6000 TO 7000
FEET...THEN LOWERING WITH EACH SYSTEM TO AS LOW AS 4000 FEET BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAIN RANGES WITH THIS SERIES OF STORMS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE EAST PAC RIDGING DEVELOPING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND...LIKELY TO BRING A RESPITE FROM THE WET
WEATHER...BUT THEN GRADUALLY UNDERCUT BY ANOTHER SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

IN SUMMARY...IT WILL BE A VERY WET WEEK ESPECIALLY BEGINNING LATE
IN THE DAY TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE FOR FLOODING RISKS AS THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES WITH THE TUESDAY STORM...CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
NIGHT. ON THE NOSE OF EACH STORM...STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST AND THE COASTAL SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A WELCOME RAINY WEEK (AND MOUNTAIN SNOW)
THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN ANXIOUSLY AWAITING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. WE WILL ISSUE UPDATED PRECIPITATION GRAPHICS THIS
MORNING ON OUR SOCIAL MEDIA FEEDS...AND FEEL FREE TO ASK US ANY
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE UPCOMING WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WE`RE TRACKING!
Quoting 272. Climate175:

Nature loves the tricks.


I remember back when Florida got tropical systems, they loved to affect my area when I was out of town. I was like you've got to be kidding.
Out of all the days in the year, a storm has to hit on the day I'm out of town.
So this was issued.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016

...LEVEE SYSTEM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER APPROACHING
CAPACITY...

.RECORD FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BETWEEN CHESTER AND
CAIRO IS STRESSING THE LEVEE SYSTEM.

ILZ084-088-092-022130-
/O.CON.KPAH.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-160104T1200Z/
/00000.0.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
JACKSON-UNION IL-ALEXANDER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARBONDALE...JONESBORO...CAIRO
313 AM CST SAT JAN 2 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...ALEXANDER...JACKSON AND UNION IL.

* THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT

* THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND STATE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORT POTENTIALLY SERIOUS PROBLEMS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LEVEE SYSTEM. WATER IS OVERTOPPING A LEVEE
IN ALEXANDER COUNTY SOUTH OF THEBES. IN JACKSON COUNTY...A
PORTION OF A LEVEE NEAR GRAND TOWER IS IN DANGER OF FAILING. THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY
AND THEN HOLD NEARLY STEADY TONIGHT.

* HEED THE EVACUATION ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS. ANY LEVEE
FAILURES WILL CAUSE SUDDEN AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH
FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

Do any of you think Levee Failures will happen?
Mediarologist, typically I watch videos like in #227 silently.
Ula ululates
under unending upper
uproars, upheavals!

2.31", Yikes, thats a gully washer(for here)..
Quoting 268. Inyo:

Donner Pass is not to be taken lightly. It has a point of eating people up who don't take it seriously. Or causing them to eat each other.

I remember being stuck on the wrong side of it trying to get home once... stopped near Truckee waiting to see if we could get through. We were stopped maybe a half hour or a bit more and in that time at least 4 inches of snow piled on our car.

We turned around and got a hotel in Reno.

Roads get bad here in Vermont but the majority of the people here have at least some idea of how to deal with it. Many if not most people driving over Donner Pass don't have a clue about driving in the snow. That's how they end up facing the wrong way on the road or worse. The funny thing is we never saw passenger cars slid off the road, not trucks, mini vans, etc. It was always an SUV in the ditch, usually a four wheel drive one. Often upside down.


Around here it's pickup trucks. We have a portion of I-25 from Santa Fe to Albuquerque called "La Bajada". Typically, when snowstorms hit this road gets snow-packed. In driving down to Albuquerque, I have counted as many as 100 cars that have slid off the road. Almost all were pickup trucks with about a 1/4 upside down. And it's typically on the downhill part.
UKMET say whaaaaaaaat.....





NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 24.5N 75.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.01.2016 120 25.7N 73.8W 1005 42
0000UTC 08.01.2016 132 27.5N 71.5W 998 38
1200UTC 08.01.2016 144 29.4N 68.9W 993 44

Quoting 274. Sfloridacat5:



I remember back when Florida got tropical systems, they loved to affect my area when I was out of town. I was like you've got to be kidding.
Out of all the days in the year, a storm has to hit on the day I'm out of town.
2016 may provide numerous storms...
Quoting 268. Inyo:

Donner Pass is not to be taken lightly. It has a point of eating people up who don't take it seriously. Or causing them to eat each other.

I remember being stuck on the wrong side of it trying to get home once... stopped near Truckee waiting to see if we could get through. We were stopped maybe a half hour or a bit more and in that time at least 4 inches of snow piled on our car.

We turned around and got a hotel in Reno.

Roads get bad here in Vermont but the majority of the people here have at least some idea of how to deal with it. Many if not most people driving over Donner Pass don't have a clue about driving in the snow. That's how they end up facing the wrong way on the road or worse. The funny thing is we never saw passenger cars slid off the road, not trucks, mini vans, etc. It was always an SUV in the ditch, usually a four wheel drive one. Often upside down.

Drivers traversing Donner Pass are typically coming from some place with little, if any snow, headed towards more of the same. If the Central Valley of CA had 10 inches of the white stuff, with snow, ice, or slush on the roads, the Pass would cease to be an anomaly, and those SUV's would have learned to slow down and allow space in front of them, or they would have spun out 40 miles down the highway.
GFS Still flip flopping, now says first storm comes in further north into Soo Cal.



And this from NWS San Diego on models and Jet undercutting ridge.

IN THIS PATTERN...WHERE A BLOCK BREAKS DOWN AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE IS UNDERCUT BY THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE
PFJ...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO ADJUST
THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH ALMOST EVERY RUN AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
IS UNDERGOING RELATIVELY RAPID CHANGES. THIS INTRODUCES HIGH
LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST
SO THAT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS BEYOND MONDAY WILL BE
LOW.

HAVING SAID THAT...BY FRI EARLY INDICATIONS ARE FOR 1-2 INCHES OF
PRECIP WEST OF THE MTNS...WITH GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL
SLOPES AND SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER DESERTS.
Minus 5 F. at my house this morning. Looks like more snow is in the queue for this coming week.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Quoting 278. PedleyCA:


2.31", Yikes, thats a gully washer(for here)..


Comes with a caveat....read #285. Models and forecasters still hemming and hawwing!
Quoting 280. VAstorms:



Around here it's pickup trucks. We have a portion of I-25 from Santa Fe to Albuquerque called "La Bajada". Typically, when snowstorms hit this road gets snow-packed. In driving down to Albuquerque, I have counted as many as 100 cars that have slid off the road. Almost all were pickup trucks with about a 1/4 upside down. And it's typically on the downhill part.


I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.
NAM 12Z Has some decent rain around our area Monday morning in Soo Cal, actually the whole state! Pick a Low...........any Low!

Quoting 288. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Comes with a caveat....read #285. Models and forecasters still hemming and hawwing!


Just read that(thanks), had to look up what PFJ was. Hem and Haw is what they do, Time will tell.. lot of little ones is better than a big one.
The numbers are for December in central Alabama. Of our official climate stations (you know you're not living in a big state when we only have four of them), Montgomery is the winner for both rainfall and temperature. The 14.31" demolishes the 1961 all-time December record by almost three inches. The previous record was set during an ENSO neutral year. Montgomery also had the highest average temperature, although all four stations broke the previous December records by over ten degrees, with Anniston coming in first at 11.2 degrees over. The Montgomery record was set previously in 1889, so this is quite an event. As you can see by the averages, Anniston is a normally chilly part of the state in December, making that record breaking temperature even more unusual.

Birmingham is now using ArcGIS for maps. I can't figure out how to save an image, but you can see it here. The map clearly shows the tremendous rain streak extending southeast from Montgomery to just about the southern border of my county. In case anyone thought my rain gauge had gone crazy, our one co-op station over in Clayton, about 20 miles west of me, had a staggering total of 21.21" compared to my 16.29". Auburn, about 50 miles north, had 17.80" while Dothan, about 50 miles south, had only 8.71". The rainfall distribution looks more like a post-hurricane rain map than one seen from a typical winter storm.

As for today, it's not exactly sunny, but it's also not the low gray overcast we've had since December 22, so it's pretty nice. The temperature is up to 55 after an overnight low of 39 so we're actually getting back to normal. We may even have a low in the high 20's Tuesday night. There are still clouds residing in the zonal tropical flow just offshore, extending back to Texas. That's supposed to clear up by tomorrow. We'll see. At least the humidity is down to 45%, so things are starting to dry out.

BTW, who before last month would have taken a bet that a station would break its all-time monthly temperature record and rainfall record, both in the same month? I sure wouldn't have.



Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.


Pickup trucks are very useful. I've owned several AWD pickups and I really liked them. I could haul whatever I wanted (dirt bikes/motorcycles, ATV, furniture, etc). I also pulled stuck cars out of the sand all the time (cars could drive on the beach).

But get ready for friends wanting to borrow your truck or you and your truck to haul stuff.
Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.
I don't own one, but I wish I did. They are useful for things like getting plywood, transporting stuff back from an estate sale, helping people move, loading mulch, getting down some of our dirt roads, and transporting all manner of things too big or too dirty to put in a car. Sometimes it's eccentricity, but it's more often just utility. Car ownership in Britain among a majority of people is fairly recent phenomena so I wouldn't expect pickup truck ownership to be high.
Quoting 287. oldnewmex:

Minus 5 F. at my house this morning. Looks like more snow is in the queue for this coming week.
Truckee, CA Forecast
What a difference from last summer in both temperature and snow. I'm starting to get that feeling that the winters of 1997 and 1998 are about to repeat themselves. Another month and people will be shoveling off their roofs in Truckee again.
Whoa, this wasn't on last night's run. It would help a bit with the water situation.

Quoting 284. oldnewmex:


Drivers traversing Donner Pass are typically coming from some place with little, if any snow, headed towards more of the same. If the Central Valley of CA had 10 inches of the white stuff, with snow, ice, or slush on the roads, the Pass would cease to be an anomaly, and those SUV's would have learned to slow down and allow space in front of them, or they would have spun out 40 miles down the highway.
Not to mention the difference between snowy mountain and snowy flatland driving. It seems as Caltrans (or whatever it's called now) closes Donner more and more frequently in big storms now than in the past. It used to be 18 wheelers jackknifed that caused it, but it now seems to happen from multicar pileups, often with the contents having an anomalous number of SUV's. :-)
Quoting 291. PedleyCA:



Just read that(thanks), had to look up what PFJ was. Hem and Haw is what they do, Time will tell.. lot of little ones is better than a big one.

Ok, I give up. What's a PFJ?
Quoting 298. oldnewmex:


Ok, I give up. What's a PFJ?


PFJ

The polar-front jet stream is like a high-speed river of air in the upper atmosphere. It
separates warm and cold regions at Earth’s surface. It may be several hundred miles
across from north to south, 5,000 to 10,000 feet (1,500 to 3,000 meters) thick and at an
altitude of 30,000 to 43,000 feet (9,000 to 13,000 meters). The polar-front jet stream
generally flows from west to east, and is strongest in the winter when core wind speeds
are sometimes as high as 250 miles (400 kilometers) per hour. Changes in the jet
stream indicate changes in the circulation of the atmosphere and associated local
weather.
Quoting 297. sar2401:

Not to mention the difference between snowy mountain and snowy flatland driving. It seems as Caltrans (or whatever it's called now) closes Donner more and more frequently in big storms now than in the past. It used to be 18 wheelers jackknifed that caused it, but it now seems to happen from multicar pileups, often with the contents having an anomalous number of SUV's. :-)

It's still 18 wheelers jacknifing being the cause of most of the temp shutdowns. SUV's and cars stuck in the berm are generally little more than a source of amusement for the rest of us as we cruise by and laugh at the @#$% who just passed us a few minutes earlier.

While working for the Forest Service here in Truckee, myself and a few of my fellow FS employees used to operate the chain checkpoints for cars and trucks. Drivers of all shapes and sizes of vehicles would sure try to talk their way out of chaining up or turning around. All it takes is one cocky big rig driver to ruin it for everybody for several hours.
Quoting 296. TimSoCal:

Whoa, this wasn't on last night's run. It would help a bit with the water situation.




Down here in Soo Cal forecasters are saying 1-4 waves this week with high pressure next weekend and then the possibility of that setup you are showing on the 14th with more systems possibly undercutting the ridge. This from a bunch who arent sure whats going to happen this week other than to say 1-2" rain possible......maybe more.......maybe not.......LOL
Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.
Maybe this Old Tom T. Hall song lyric fragment will help,

I'm the guy who didn't marry pretty Pamela Brown
Educated, well-intentioned, good girl in our town
I wonder where I'd be today if she had loved me too
Probably be driving kids to school


(chorus)
I guess I owe it all to Pamela Brown
All of my good times, all my roamin' around
One of these days I might be in your town
And I guess I owe it all to Pamela Brown


I've seen the lights of cites and I've been inside their doors
I've sailed to foreign countries and I've walked upon their shores
I guess the guy she married was the best part of my luck
She dug him 'cause he drove a pick-up truck


(chorus)

etc.
Quoting 298. oldnewmex:


Ok, I give up. What's a PFJ?


polar-front jet stream (PFJ)... I see HHJ beat me to it...
305. bwi
Quoting 299. pingon:



Maximum heating day for the globe, especially for the southern oceans.
Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.

Other than the Tom.T Hall song ..the pick-up love affair goes waayyyyyyy back a long time and the Americans got it right in this respect ( they nailed it) for a dozen reasons I can find , in so much we have 2 pick-ups and no sedan cars , but also a small SUV. All 3 work well here in the islands. The trucks can carry & transport anything , as well as pretty much tow anything. Comes in handy when you have to launch, haul and tow boats & also clean up the jungle trimmings!
Quoting 304. PedleyCA:


polar-front jet stream (PFJ)... I see HHJ beat me to it...


And I'll beat you to saying TFG, which means "That Fething Guy".

Just google it.
Quoting 296. TimSoCal:

Whoa, this wasn't on last night's run. It would help a bit with the water situation.



Bring it. Those west coast ridges/blocks typically retreat north or east in the face of an El Nino-powered Pacific jet.
Quoting 294. sar2401:

I don't own one, but I wish I did. They are useful for things like getting plywood, transporting stuff back from an estate sale, helping people move, loading mulch, getting down some of our dirt roads, and transporting all manner of things too big or too dirty to put in a car. Sometimes it's eccentricity, but it's more often just utility. Car ownership in Britain among a majority of people is fairly recent phenomena so I wouldn't expect pickup truck ownership to be high.

Then there's the difference in the price of gas between the US and Europe.
Quoting 305. bwi:




Would not 18.5N put TC Ula west of Hawaii? Instead of East of Fiji? Is the -18.5N the new south latitude? I know .........trivial......but Im bored......LOL
Its going to be a long winter for many.

Quoting 311. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Would not 18.5N put TC Ula west of Hawaii? Instead of East of Fiji? Is the -18.5N the new south latitude? I know .........trivial......but Im bored......LOL

You just crossed into the Twilight Zone....
Quoting 310. BayFog:


Then there's the difference in the price of gas between the US and Europe.

Nailed it.
Quoting 244. sar2401:


1950-2013
State Number/10k sq mi
Florida 9.59
Oklahoma 6.85
Indiana 6.41
Iowa 6.25
Louisiana 6.07
Mississippi 5.51
Texas 5.23
Delaware 5.18
Illinois 4.86
Nebraska 4.7


Thank you. I'd have thought Kansas would be on there, and that Florida wouldn't even rate the top ten, but there you go.
From NWS Los Angeles



A series of storm systems are expected to impact southwestern California Sunday night through Friday. The first storm is expected to move across the area Sunday night into Monday, bringing generally light rainfall with snow level around 5000 to 6000 feet. From Tuesday through Friday, additional storms are expected with periods of rain, mountain snow and gusty winds. There is the potential for significant rainfall of 2 to 4 inches for many areas with local accumulations up to 6 inches for south-facing slopes. Significant snowfall is also possible above 4500 to 5000 feet, with winter storm conditions due to heavy snow and gusty winds. The exact timing and intensity of each weather system is still in question, but the overall weather pattern appears to be a wet one for the coming week. In addition, communities in and around recent burn areas, especially the Colby, Madison, Powerhouse, Madre, Solimar and Springs burn areas, will need to be alert for the potential for heavy rainfall at times which could produce flash flooding with mud and debris flows. Drainage areas should be cleared of debris to help reduce the chance of urban flooding.
Quoting 312. hydrus:

Its going to be a long winter for many.


That image shows the meaning of life!
Getting downright balmy around here, up 3 degrees in 20 minutes......getting out the sun screen! Not raining anytime soon with RH at 15%

Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Sat, 02 Jan 12:36 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Sat, 02 Jan 12:20 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Chill Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (f) (mph)
02 Jan 12:20 pm PST 57 10 15 SSE 13G19 OK
02 Jan 12:10 pm PST 56 10 16 SSE 13G22 OK
02 Jan 12:00 pm PST 54 11 18 S 14G22

Aw, visiting my favorite stork cam in Germany in Hoechstadt (south-eastern Germany) I see the couple spending the night in their now snow-covered nest. The pair raised four young birds this year which are now probably somewhere south, but the parents themselves won't migrate any more; they became so called "winter storks". Temps are around freezing now (0 C) in this town, but the storks might be used to worse. And as the Atlantic airmasses should win the weather battle in Germany quite soon, it will become warmer some time next week.

BTW, more pics of the crazy Black Sea snow in Turkey at Severe Weather Europe. They say rapid melting should start soon, with flooding connected.
plumerias are blooming e cen florida
Some good news:
Local MP says Tonga escapes major damage from Ula
Updated at 4:31 pm on 2 January 2016
A Member of Parliament for Vava'u says the area has escaped any significant damage from Cyclone Ula, which swept to the north of the Tongan island group.
The category 3 system brought heavy rain and winds of 150 kilometres an hour with gusts up to 200 kilometres an hour to the region.
But Samiu Vaipulu says he has been able to preliminary assess part of his constituency and damage is minimal.
"There was very strong winds but I've gone through part of my constituency already and damage is not much. It's just shelters, which is not actual houses, there is about two little shelters. The only thing is fruit trees like breadfruit and mangoes. The mangoes are all down, some of the breadfruit and coconuts."
Samiu Vaipulu says there is hardly any flooding in the area as the water has just run off the dry ground.
Cyclone Ula is expected to weaken as it reaches Fiji's Lau group by tomorrow.
Tourism operator says topography saved islands ...

Rain warning for drought-stricken parts of Queensland
Date January 2, 2016 - 6:05PM
A deep trough that extends about 1500 kilometres across western Queensland is expected to drench drought-stricken parts of the state ...


Click to get the loop with "Ula" at the right side.
Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.



I don't know. In the South and Midwest, a great many people live on plots of land no less that 10000 square foot, with many having as much as 20000 square foot. My house in South Eas Texas was on about an acre and a half or about 60000 square foot. While I wasn't a farmer, I ran chain saws, cut firewood, built decks and remodeled the interior of the house with the truck.

When I moved the Deep East Texas I tried to go with a house with a 2 to 3 thousand square foot lot, but was nixed by the wife. We ended up with close to 20000 square foot. I tried not to own another truck, but ended up with an old utility truck because I kept going to my mother's house and doing a little plumbing, or electrical work, or gardening or something. (My brother lives closer but she is on about an acre and half of water front and his portion of the work is pretty significant. Mom is a octogenarian widow)

Only now that I live in an apartment far away from Texas have I been able to do away with the the truck, but I will still take two weeks to get the lawn ready for spring. (We still have the house, but my wife only lives there during the winter.)

Personally, if I build another house on more than 15000 square foot, I will probably buy another machine, but I am leaning toward and old Suburban with a 16 foot low boy, or 16 foot enclosed utility trailer. However, it is my fondest wish to play Eurpean and stay in an apartment.

Cheers
Qazulight
Quoting 310. BayFog:


Then there's the difference in the price of gas between the US and Europe.

You forgot the ? Mark ? at the end of the comment.
I come from the place and I can tell you that gas costs as of last month about $6.50 cents a gallon.
I was in NY in June 2015 and gas cost about $2.60 a gallon.
I even know that there is about a 10% difference between the US and UK gallons and I have taken this into account.

Added to this. I earn in the UK about $15 an hour, if and when I am lucky. I earn technically in the USA about $45 an hour.
So gas is already 3 times more expensive to me than if I worked in the USA. From the point of view of wages.
If you look at it logically which I am sure (SAR) will do for us "later," then I earn about 33% of the USA wages and I pay about 300 % more for gas.
So in reality, which I have posted on this blog many times before. "Gas is about 9 times more expensive to me from an earning point of view and physical cost in the UK compared to the USA!"
325. bwi
I think the error is on WU not the Fiji met service!
Fun weather.
We are using the same list this year that produced Allan,Andrew,Georges,Mitch,Frances,Charley,Ivan,Je anne and Igor.Will the curse continue into this yer? Only one way to find out...
Ula on Himawari-8. Click pic for loop.
Quoting 327. Gearsts:

Fun weather.


Yep.
And finally getting some sunshine here at 10N 61W.
Very welcome !
Quoting 328. Skyepony:



I'm a bit concerned about how warm its going to get in the Aleutian chain in 2 days from now according to this modified chart from the wind map.

Link

ULA up close..
Pipeline on the North Shore is 15 - 18 ft.
Lots of Pacific storms generating some killer surf.

Link
Quoting 333. Skyepony:

ULA up close..

I see she has a caring heart too.
Quoting 324. PlazaRed

Hey Plaza, is the drought in the Iberian penisula about to end? I see a build up of a river of tropical moisture heading to your place (or a bit north of you to Portugal):


Saved loop. Source for updates.
Quoting 333. Skyepony:

ULA up close..

Very cool pic Skye..keep,em comin..:)
Quoting 336. barbamz:


Hey Plaza, is the drought in the Iberian penisula about to end? I see a build up of a river of tropical moisture heading to your place (or a bit north of you to Portugal):


Saved loop. Source for updates.

Happy new year Barb.
I feel that the drought is about to continue along its natural course.
The tipping point in my opinion is about the 20th of January, if its still dry after then then it will probably stay that way until we get back into the dry season in April.
I dot think a river of moisture heading to Portugal is going to affect us down here in the Seville area too much and we did only get about 4mm or less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the last few days.
The ground is very dry and would need in my opinion about 4 inches or 10 Cms of rain to even bring it back to life.
We will live and learn by all this as the weeks go along.

Meanwhile I am hoping that you get a bit or a lot of rain in northern Europe as its been very dry in your area.
Having said that, the snow levels in the Alps, which provide a lot of river waters are very low right now as well and the clock is ticking on the time for snow there as we head into the warmer seasons.
Quoting 338. PlazaRed:


Happy new year Barb....
I dot think a river of moisture heading to Portugal is going to affect us down here in the Seville area too much and we did only get about 4mm or less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the last few days....

Thanks, Plaza. Happy new year to you too! Looks like the upcoming rains will hit the northern Atlantic coast of Iberia, if GFS got this right:

Accumulated precipitation one week ahead.
Just a note on Gas prices:-
Only 3 states don’t have a single place to buy gas for less than $2
About $6.50 a gallon in the UK.
Worth reading the article of course.

Link
Quoting 339. barbamz:


Thanks, Plaza. Happy new year to you too! Looks like the upcoming rains will hit the northern Atlantic coast of Iberia, if GFS got this right:

Accumulated precipitation one week ahead.

Not really a problem for them up there as they get lots of rain normally anyway.
May help to supress the forest fires they have been having recently.
We in the south are halfway through the wet season and although it rained quite a bit in October, there has been nothing much since then.
I'm of the opinion as I said earlier that if it does not rain by the end of January then things will probably look grim to bad.
We have massive amounts of water in dams which are about full but its the ground that needs the water not people who have plenty coming out of their taps.

Just looking again at he chart you posted earlier and thinking that there is always the possibility in the near future of a lot more chance of hurricane re-curvature into Iberia and that would be really interesting.
Ula
I see the arctic report card is out and we are failing...

http://www.adn.com/article/20160102/arctic-report -card-documents-continuing-loss-ice

Link

Lowest sea ice extent level broken again...
344. MahFL
Quoting 289. yonzabam:



I've never understood the American love affair with the pickup truck. You see very few of them, here in the UK. I could understand it if you were all farmers, but you're not. And I thought it was just the Brits that were eccentric.

From my observations about 50% of people do use their trucks for work and about 50 % like to have one for the occasional hauling job they need to do.
Pickups are quite high off the road and give you a good view.
Americans move around more, they will move to a different State if the job requires.
Gas is cheap too.
Looks like Monday could be twice the size of today. Looks like 20'+ Hawaiian. Waimea and Makaha probably the only places holding, unless the tow-ins hit the outer reefs. Maybe the Eddie?

Quoting 334. Sfloridacat5:

Pipeline on the North Shore is 15 - 18 ft.
Lots of Pacific storms generating some killer surf.

Link
Quoting 344. MahFL:


From my observations about 50% of people do use their trucks for work and about 50 % like to have one for the occasional hauling job they need to do.
Pickups are quite high off the road and give you a good view.
Americans move around more, they will move to a different State if the job requires.
Gas is cheap too.



I have one. Like be able to bring big things around. Every time I get rid of it and get a car I regret it and end up with another pickup. Our other car is more economical and more of a commuter car.

We also use it as our vacation vehicle because we can pack a bunch of stuff in it. For me it is either a large SUV or a truck and a truck to me, has more uses since I don't need to seat 7 to 9 people.
GRO - How are things your way. Well, our way, for right now?

Quoting 348. Dakster:

GRO - How are things your way. Well, our way, for right now?




Summer will never end. We've been very busy. I still see you're going back and forth. At least you were here for our "hottest" year ever.
Today James Spann and Brad  Panovich, two respected TV Meteorologists took to facebook and twitter to attack those make long range weather forecasts.  There have been many who have been saying the period between Jan 10-14th there could be a possible scenario with snow in the southeast, and especially the appalachian and east coast.  So both of these meteorologists have been bombed by the "numbs and the dumbs(my description of the general public) clamoring about when and where.

Spann took a headline of a well respected, uprising dedicated student Matthew Holiday(from S Carolina) and called it a 12 year old's attempt from his mom's computer.and worse..... Needless to say, there has been quite a discussion allday as Spann has apologized somewhat to Holliday and explained his reasoning...etc....and Holliday and all the different followers has reminded him(me included) that long range weather forecasting and the internet is here to stay.

What do you think of long range forecasting.....IF  we understand and use everything understanding that sometimes we can not get a 3 day forecast correct....?
350. lostinohio

Long range should be looked at as to what the over all pattern may look like.Not any specific event (like a storm) should be looked at as a absolute.Just like during hurricane season when the long range models are posted.The specific category 5 shown swirling in the Atlantic 300+ hurs out should not be looked at as a absolute but as a potential (perhaps weaker than shown on the model) product of what the pattern or environment may be like at that time.
Speaking of storms I'm looking forward to Ian on this years hurricane list because a forecaster from CWG is named Ian and it would be interesting reading the forecast if the storm were headed for the area.
Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

Speaking of storms I'm looking forward to Ian on this years hurricane list because a forecaster from CWG is named Ian and it would be interesting reading the forecast if the storm were headed for the area.
Ian is a good and professional forecaster, and I would assume a Hurricane or Tropical Storm with his name would act in a behaved manner lol, but you never know, maybe there is a side of him we don't know.
Quoting 349. Grothar:



Summer will never end. We've been very busy. I still see you're going back and forth. At least you were here for our "hottest" year ever.


Yes... I was here for the hottest summer. And now it could be another warm to warmest winter in AK too.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #17
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA, CATEGORY THREE (05F)
12:00 PM FST January 3 2016
========================

A STORM WARNING remains in force for Kabara, Namuka, Fulaga, Ogea, Vatoa, and Ono-i-lau

A GALE WARNING remains in force for Moce, Oneata, Matuku, Totoya, and Komo


At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 19.8S 178.9W has to minute sustained winds of 80 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
60 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection remains persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Ragged eye becoming cloud filled. Organization good. Outflow good to the south. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula is being steered to the west southwest by a east northeast deep layer mean flow. Dvorak analysis based on ragged eye pattern with OW eye in LG surround yields DT=5.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak intensity based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=================
12 HRS: 20.7S 179.5W - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.8S 180.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.9S 179.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Update: Round 1 and Round 2 still on the way.



This evening’s satellite image depicts a series of Pacific low pressure storm systems poised to impact So. California during much of the new work week. Mainly light precipitation is likely Sunday night through Monday morning, then from Tuesday through Thursday, there will be more widespread, and potentially heavy, precipitation. Heavy snow will also be possible in the mountains above 5000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding from these repetitive rain storms, especially near recent wildfire burn scars.
One can see the first 2 systems across the Pacific....The first storm is splitting with part going north and the rest into California. The Rex Block of High Pressure is visible as an egg/circular clear area from Oregon coastal waters north into British Columbia maybe the Yukon. The block must be eroding a bit allowing the first system to come further north into Soo Cal as opposed to Baja California. System 2 looks very wet. System 3 just getting on it's way across the ocean just east of Japan

Quoting 315. BayFog:


Thank you. I'd have thought Kansas would be on there, and that Florida wouldn't even rate the top ten, but there you go.


Florida does indeed get a lot of tornadoes. I've visually seen 3 in the Tampa Bay area, and there's been 4 tornado paths close to my parents house the past 10 years which is near Clearwater FL. Just in Pinellas County alone, which is a small county, has had over 100 tornadoes since the 1960's. Though most of the tornadoes are weak, but stronger tornadoes can and do happen but they are much less frequent here in FL than in other tornado active areas, like the Plains, the deep South, and the Midwest.
Quoting 356. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Update: Round 1 and Round 2 still on the way.



This evening’s satellite image depicts a series of Pacific low pressure storm systems poised to impact So. California during much of the new work week. Mainly light precipitation is likely Sunday night through Monday morning, then from Tuesday through Thursday, there will be more widespread, and potentially heavy, precipitation. Heavy snow will also be possible in the mountains above 5000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding from these repetitive rain storms, especially near recent wildfire burn scars.

Already lost a 1/10" since this morning....lol
Quoting 356. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Update: Round 1 and Round 2 still on the way.



This evening’s satellite image depicts a series of Pacific low pressure storm systems poised to impact So. California during much of the new work week. Mainly light precipitation is likely Sunday night through Monday morning, then from Tuesday through Thursday, there will be more widespread, and potentially heavy, precipitation. Heavy snow will also be possible in the mountains above 5000 feet. There will be a potential for flooding from these repetitive rain storms, especially near recent wildfire burn scars.
Quoting 357. HurricaneHunterJoe:

One can see the first 2 systems across the Pacific....The first storm is splitting with part going north and the rest into California. The Rex Block of High Pressure is visible as an egg/circular clear area from Oregon coastal waters north in British Columbia maybe the Yukon. The block must be eroding a bit allowing the first system to come further north into Soo Cal as opposed to Baja California. System 2 looks very wet. System 3 just getting on it's way across the ocean just east of Japan


Will these systems affect Southeast Louisiana too .
Quoting 360. Andrebrooks:

Will these systems affect Southeast Louisiana too .


Off the top of my head I think so Andre. Jet stream steers em pretty much.

362. vis0

Quoting 292. sar2401:

The numbers are for December in central Alabama. Of our official climate stations (you know you're not living in a big state when we only have four of them), Montgomery is the winner for both rainfall and temperature. The 14.31" demolishes the 1961 all-time December record by almost three inches. The previous record was set during an ENSO neutral year. Montgomery also had the highest average temperature, although all four stations broke the previous December records by over ten degrees, with Anniston coming in first at 11.2 degrees over. The Montgomery record was set previously in 1889, so this is quite an event. As you can see by the averages, Anniston is a normally chilly part of the state in December, making that record breaking temperature even more unusual.

Birmingham is now using ArcGIS for maps. I can't figure out how to save an image, but you can see it here. The map clearly shows the tremendous rain streak extending southeast from Montgomery to just about the southern border of my county. In case anyone thought my rain gauge had gone crazy, our one co-op station over in Clayton, about 20 miles west of me, had a staggering total of 21.21" compared to my 16.29". Auburn, about 50 miles north, had 17.80" while Dothan, about 50 miles south, had only 8.71". The rainfall distribution looks more like a post-hurricane rain map than one seen from a typical winter storm.

As for today, it's not exactly sunny, but it's also not the low gray overcast we've had since December 22, so it's pretty nice. The temperature is up to 55 after an overnight low of 39 so we're actually getting back to normal. We may even have a low in the high 20's Tuesday night. There are still clouds residing in the zonal tropical flow just offshore, extending back to Texas. That's supposed to clear up by tomorrow. We'll see. At least the humidity is down to 45%, so things are starting to dry out.

BTW, who before last month would have taken a bet that a station would break its all-time monthly temperature record and rainfall record, both in the same month? I sure wouldn't have.




A way to grab / save an image from such a site...though i think by now sar2401 figured it out or polaroided it off the screen.

(USING INDEPENDENT APP METHODS)
► 1) Use screen capturing apps/freeware as
■ Nimbus (though its a bit "bullyware", pushy as to updates, guess that's what happens when people don't donate as to freeware) and
■ Screengrab ("screengrab fixed version" is the official name).
Copy page, edit if possible in that app then save OR copy  to clipboard and edit in image editing program.
Been testing nice freeware capture program that will allow one to copy n paste images atop another image with in your browser page by fragmenting and FreeLayering the images copied.


(BROWSERS)
► 2a) If you're using FFox Pre40 versions)  RIGHT CLICK OVER page / Image area and selected "View page info".
■ That selection opens up a pop up.
■ On that pop-up Click on the tab that reads "MEDIA".
■ Now highlight by clicking ONCE the first link and look at what displays under it in the MEDIA PREVIEW display area.
■ THE TEDIOUS PART - Keep scrolling down on all links till you see the image of Alabama's December 2015 rainfall amounts with the psychedelic colours that gets one dizzy.

■ TO SAVE IT AS AN IMAGE one needs to edit its extension**.
Since most of these type of map-info pages save as some sort of HTML (web page), when you click on the "save as" button to the right of the MEDIA content pup up, the SAVE dialog box might read "HTML document", no need to change that. If you prefer to CHANGE the name to oh, lets say "December 2015 Alabama Rainfall" DO NOT close the pop up, just act as if you're going to bookmark (ctrl+D) the NOAA Alabama rainfall page and the bookmark pop-up will present you with "December 2015 Alabama Rainfall". Cut that title out of the bookmark pop up (i prefer "cut" rather than "copy" in case i accidentally click save, nothing is saved). AT THE END of the new name add the desired extension, usually science based sites use "'.png" or "gif." In this case try (.png) with no parentheses, DO NOT forget the "." period first. The entered new name should look like "December 2015 Alabama Rainfall.png" or
$#%$! vis0 help took me all day 2figure Bama rainmap.png

2b) Using MAXTHON (v40+), it has an installed screen capturer titled SNAP so just click on its icon and select WHOLE PAGE or REGION then EDIOT it as you wish or  save image  via SNAPs hover menu, MAXTHON will title it via the bookmark title automatically if the image is saved via its menu, but via SNAP it'll be saved as UNTITLED though both ways adds a timestamp, THOUGH MAKE SURE the overly has loaded. One can save the underlay (in this case nice map of Alabama ~Topography) WITHOUT the overlay IF you're on a slow connection.

2c) In Chrome or SRWare Iron (v40+) one saves the entire page as a webpage then has to locate with file "container" has the image resources, best to use a screen capturer as mentioned above, downloaded and applied via chromestore.


(GO-PHOR vis0 has it ready)
► 3) Get the already created image WITH colour - symbol KEY via this link:::
http://s20.postimg.org/udvw89kd9/December_2015_Al abama_Rainfall_vis0.png

**(i had on my old site freeware programs that included the easiest way to do this changing of extensions in just 2 clicks (even with any browser) but that freeware was discontinued in 2005,
STILL works on win8 - friend uses it in win8 but its been used to attach malware so am not linking it) Might pkg it in a safe MDS checksum zip so if members ask i'll eMail it tothem, yet always malware check all bits that one receive.


NOT BEING AN ALARMIST::
Sar2401 the mold in these cool dark days must be horrific, hope all going through these floods deal with it as fast as possible or it can get out of hand. Remember one of my thoughts as to how nature can dwindle down human population is via mold entering bloodstream thus brain and since mold might not be attacked by the white cells it destroys brain inside out.

APOLOGY my spellchk broke so i had to hand-check my entire comment.

Back to observing weather and nom nom noming... BTW are Dr Scholls® corn removers the same to Unicorns as Kryptonite is to Superman or the truth to a politician?
Longyearben, Svalbard--a town in an archipelago deep above the Arctic Circle about midway between the northern tip of Norway and the North Pole, a town that's been in absolute darkness for weeks now, and generally sees early January highs in the mid-teens and lows in the single digits--is again in the mid-40s. In fact, Svalbard (located at 78.2N) is currently warmer than Brownsville, Texas (25.9N), which sits at the extreme southern tip of the state.
Quoting 360. Andrebrooks:

Will these systems affect Southeast Louisiana too .


heh-heh......maybe not if the mighty Houston 'pureet1948' stands up to them & stares them down first....
Quoting 363. Neapolitan:

Longyearben, Svalbard--a town in an archipelago deep above the Arctic Circle about midway between the northern tip of Norway and the North Pole, a town that's been in absolute darkness for weeks now, and generally sees early January highs in the mid-teens and lows in the single digits--is again in the mid-40s. In fact, Svalbard (located at 78.2N) is currently warmer than Brownsville, Texas (25.9N), which sits at the extreme southern tip of the state.


Wow.....shaking my head....unreal.
Quoting 365. weesej:



Wow.....shaking my head....unreal.
Not accurate either. Currently Brownsville is 43 and Longyearbyen is 41. High forecast today for Longyearbyen is 43 and it starts cooling tomorrow with a high of 31. High in Brownsville today is mid 50's. The Danish have the best temperature records in the arctic. It has happened before where Longyearbyen has warmed because of storms in the Atlantic pushing warmer air that far north.
What is amazing to me is the average high in early January is in the teens. I would expect it to be much colder at that latitude with no sunlight, even though surrounded by an ocean. I should like to visit.

Anchorage is currently about the same temp as Myrtle Beach this morning.

Speaking of oceans, nearshore ocean temps are mid to upper 60's off Myrtle Beach. Thanksgiving water temps in January.

Quoting 363. Neapolitan:

Longyearben, Svalbard--a town in an archipelago deep above the Arctic Circle about midway between the northern tip of Norway and the North Pole, a town that's been in absolute darkness for weeks now, and generally sees early January highs in the mid-teens and lows in the single digits--is again in the mid-40s. In fact, Svalbard (located at 78.2N) is currently warmer than Brownsville, Texas (25.9N), which sits at the extreme southern tip of the state.
zika virus has made an appearance in Puerto Rico. this virus is known to leave a itchy rash in its carriers. wiki mentioned it could be transferred human to human with sexual contact. i know chickamauga virus has left a mark in latin america already. many older folks now suffer chronic pain everyday due to the lingering virus
Another year of no major land falling hurricanes in the US sets a new record of 9 years without one.

Tornadic activity this year in the continental US is significantly below the recent 2003 to 2011 much greater average.

And thankfully, the current Mississippi flooding is nowhere near as bad as the Great Flood of 1993.
What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?

Quoting 350. lostinohio:

Today James Spann and Brad Panovich, two respected TV Meteorologists took to facebook and twitter to attack those make long range weather forecasts. There have been many who have been saying the period between Jan 10-14th there could be a possible scenario with snow in the southeast, and especially the appalachian and east coast. So both of these meteorologists have been bombed by the "numbs and the dumbs(my description of the general public) clamoring about when and where.

Spann took a headline of a well respected, uprising dedicated student Matthew Holiday(from S Carolina) and called it a 12 year old's attempt from his mom's computer.and worse..... Needless to say, there has been quite a discussion allday as Spann has apologized somewhat to Holliday and explained his reasoning...etc....and Holliday and all the different followers has reminded him(me included) that long range weather forecasting and the internet is here to stay.

What do you think of long range forecasting.....IF we understand and use everything understanding that sometimes we can not get a 3 day forecast correct....?

I haven't seen any of the beefs you're talking about so I can't comment on that. When it comes to long range forecasts, anything beyond seven days has about a 20% of being right. That's a mathematical fact. You can find the verifications at the CPC site. Even the 20% is only right if you look at a region or state. It's way less if you're using it to forecast weather in even a large city. Models past seven days have the same issue. We certainly saw that this past hurricane season. Long range forecast based on models and things like the state of the NAO and AO have some merit in terms of seeing a possible mass pattern change. Anything more specific than that is just not supportable by evidence. Think about it this way. If a long range model forecast heavy snow for your city on January 17, would you run out today and get 200 pounds of salt and an extra snowblower? If you don't take action based on that forecast, it's not really a forecast - it's entertainment.
Quoting 366. PensacolaDoug:

Not accurate either. Currently Brownsville is 43 and Longyearbyen is 41. High forecast today for Longyearbyen is 43 and it starts cooling tomorrow with a high of 31. High in Brownsville today is mid 50's. The Danish have the best temperature records in the arctic. It has happened before where Longyearbyen has warmed because of storms in the Atlantic pushing warmer air that far north.

Of course, those who have a grasp on concepts such as time and the spherical nature of the planet will understand that temperatures fluctuate over the course of a day, helping them realize that when my earlier post was written, Svalbard was indeed a few degrees warmer than it is now (it's afternoon) , while Brownsville is a few degrees warmer (it's later in the morning).

Anyway, thanks for your comment, which reinforces the truism that only a true anti-realist could look at a location close to the North Pole that's warmer in January than a town on the Mexican border in deep south Texas and say, "Meh. No big deal." ;-)
Quoting 369. rjsenterp:

Another year of no major land falling hurricanes in the US sets a new record of 9 years without one.

Tornadic activity this year in the continental US is significantly below the recent 2003 to 2011 much greater average.

And thankfully, the current Mississippi flooding is nowhere near as bad as the Great Flood of 1993.
Of course, the floods of '93 occurred during spring and summer--you know, when floods normally happen--and not in mid-winter. So there's that.

cilvil war continues in yemen. cyclone hit earlier in the yr that and this endless war. it must be chaos.
Models continue to hint at something. Still 10 days out. 200 miles to the east and we are talking major blizzard. Not that it can't happen...

Quoting 370. wartsttocs:

What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?


Quoting 370. wartsttocs:

What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?


Who knows? It's coming from a 1007 mb low that forms over Mississippi. It travels north inland and somehow becomes a 974 mb low in 24 hours. This is a good example of what I just wrote about. There may be a low in Maine in 252 hours. That much may be right. Will it be a 974 mb monster low? That much is probably not right. El Nino really does seem to be throwing the models off, and the GFS has been particularly loopy this winter.
Quoting 370. wartsttocs:

What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?




Meteorological eye-candy
Nothing to see here, move along please.
Quoting 370. wartsttocs:

What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?


The GFS has been flip flopping back and forth between a coastal storm and inland runner for a few runs now, I would suspect the inland runner solution wouldn't be that reasonable due to the pattern changing to be more favorable for cold and a coastal storm. The Euro and it's ensembles have also been agreeing for a coastal storm too.
Current flow of moisture from the GOM over Florida straight into Western Europe (especially northwest Iberia):




Click to enlarge.


Europe remains divided with cold dry air in the east and mild air coming in from the west. Boundary right over Germany, causing some bad black ice and ice rain. Source for updates.


Nasturtium on my balcony still blooming (Malvas and one little rose, too) as we didn't get any frost so far downtown Mainz.


Stations around the world in the last 24hours near or surpassing record measurements. Notice the cold temperatures around the Black Sea which caused all the snow fall in northern Turkey (here a video from Bartin).
Source. Here the list of current record readings (link to scroll down). Svalbard airport with 41.0F has broken its daily record (formerly: 36.9F); monthly record for January is 49.5F.

Have a nice Sunday everybody!
Quoting 367. HaoleboySurfEC:

What is amazing to me is the average high in early January is in the teens. I would expect it to be much colder at that latitude with no sunlight, even though surrounded by an ocean. I should like to visit.

Anchorage is currently about the same temp as Myrtle Beach this morning.

Speaking of oceans, nearshore ocean temps are mid to upper 60's off Myrtle Beach. Thanksgiving water temps in January.


At least according to Wiki, the average high in January is 8.6F in January, so the average high is not in the teens. It's only 12 degrees in December. Longyearbyen sits on the edge of the Atlantic Current, which brings relatively warm water up into the Arctic. The record high in January is 45.6 due to the current. One of the reasons why coal mining there was a profitable venture is it has the furthest north port that is generally ice free from about May to October, allowing the ocean transport of the coal longer than what would normally be possible that far north. I don't know that Longyearbyen weather is really representative of what's happening in the Arctic in general. BTW, the place was founded by an American, John Longyear. I'm just guessing, and Gro would know for sure, but Longyearbyen may be Norweigan for Longyear Town.
Quoting 380. barbamz:

Current flow of moisture from the GOM over Florida straight into Western Europe (especially northwest Iberia):




Click to enlarge.


Europe remains divided with cold dry air in the east and mild air coming in from the west. Boundary right over Germany, causing some bad black ice and ice rain. Source for updates.


Nasturtium on my balcony still blooming (Malvas and one little rose, too) as we didn't get any frost so far downtown Mainz.


Stations around the world in the last 24hours near or surpassing record measurements. Notice the cold temperatures around the Black Sea which caused all the snow fall in northern Turkey (here a video from Bartin).
Source.

Have a nice Sunday everybody!
Hi Barb. The plant life has been pretty amazing here too. All my roses are still in bloom, my impatiens have flowers all over them, and I have amaryllis opening that normally don't bloom before late February at the earliest. The culprit behind all this is that subtropical jet, and you can see it really starting to crank up in your first graphic. All we need here and in Europe is for a polar or subpolar low to get a move on south and we'll have some big snowstorms. If we don't get that, it's just more and more rain. We'll see what happens over the next two weeks.

I've been reading a history of WWII lately. It seems the US and the UK were in secret negotiations with Turkey, which was nominally neutral then, to build an airbase in the region that has all the snow. We were ferrying planes and equipment to the then USSR, and having a base on the other side of the mountains between Turkey and Iran would have saved a lot of gas and weather delays. Allied engineers were headed there to inspect the area in January, 1943. Their convoy ended up getting trapped in the snow for four days. They enquired about the weather from the locals while they were stuck in a hotel. They were told it was sunny and hot in the summer. When they asked about weather the rest of the year, their informants let them know it rained every other day - except when in snowed. They made an on-the-spot decision this airbase was not a good idea. :-)
Quoting 366. PensacolaDoug:

Not accurate either. Currently Brownsville is 43 and Longyearbyen is 41. High forecast today for Longyearbyen is 43 and it starts cooling tomorrow with a high of 31. High in Brownsville today is mid 50's. The Danish have the best temperature records in the arctic. It has happened before where Longyearbyen has warmed because of storms in the Atlantic pushing warmer air that far north.

Longyearbyen is actually part of Norway, but you're right about the weather records. The semi official records there go back to 1902, and the official records start in 1910, except for a gap from 1943 to 1945. A combination of coal that Britain badly needed and a weather data that the Allies also needed prompted the Germans to risk their two largest battleships to bombard and destroy Longyearbyen in September, 1943. It's only the Atlantic Current that allowed the Germans to be confident enough of ice-free conditions to carry out the mission.
It's not a "big deal" Nea, only an oddity.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
405 AM PST SUN JAN 3 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE REGION BY LATE
TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE
SECOND STORM ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE STRONGER AND
COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS. AT LEAST TWO
MORE STORMS WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE WEST DURING
NEXT WEEKEND FOR DRIER CONDITIONS. A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN IS POSSIBLE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

By Tuesday, the entire California coast will be in the active left exit region of a jet max located to the southwest.

Texas is a state of extremes. And it does occasionally snow all the way down in Brownsville.

This picture is from Brownsville Tx. a few years ago.
Quoting 362. vis0:

{snip} NOT BEING AN ALARMIST::
Sar2401 the mold in these cool dark days must be horrific, hope all going through these floods deal with it as fast as possible or it can get out of hand. Remember one of my thoughts as to how nature can dwindle down human population is via mold entering bloodstream thus brain and since mold might not be attacked by the white cells it destroys brain inside out.

APOLOGY my spellchk broke so i had to hand-check my entire comment.

Back to observing weather and nom nom noming... BTW are Dr Scholls corn removers the same to Unicorns as Kryptonite is to Superman or the truth to a politician?

Thanks' Vis. I snipped out all your instructions so we don't clog up the blog, but I can see you're really a master of getting images moved around where you want them. I saved what you wrote so I can refer to it next time I have the same issue. I wanted to do a live link to the rainfall map because it will get updated with more observations as time goes along. It used to be no problem because it was a .png file. With ArcGIS, there doesn't seem to be a way to have a live link to the graphic. Another example of progress seeming to break something that used to work.

I'm lucky to live in a house that doesn't leak and has a functioning central heating and cooling system. That creates a hostile environment for mold. Outside is another matter, Every horizontal, and some vertical, surface is covered in algae, lichen, and mold. It's actually kind of colorful, ranging from deep green to black to orange. I'll have to spray down the siding again with my bleach formula to kill it all come spring. The roof of my poor motorhome is covered in mold and algae, not to mention that the support blocks under the wheels are starting to sink into the mud. For people living in houses that aren't watertight or don't have good climate control, mold on the inside of the house is a serious problem down here. Getting rid of it is a real chore, and people who have to do this in an enclosed space have a lot more risk than me cleaning the RV. Other than the typical symptoms from an allergic reactions to mold, we don't really know all the health implications from the stuff. It is one of the perils of living in a humid climate, especially when it's been really, really humid for the past couple of weeks.
Quoting 336. barbamz:


Hey Plaza, is the drought in the Iberian penisula about to end? I see a build up of a river of tropical moisture heading to your place (or a bit north of you to Portugal):


Saved loop. Source for updates.

Both oceans now have well developed jet streams at mid latitudes.
Quoting 324. PlazaRed:


You forgot the ? Mark ? at the end of the comment.
I come from the place and I can tell you that gas costs as of last month about $6.50 cents a gallon.
I was in NY in June 2015 and gas cost about $2.60 a gallon.
I even know that there is about a 10% difference between the US and UK gallons and I have taken this into account.

Added to this. I earn in the UK about $15 an hour, if and when I am lucky. I earn technically in the USA about $45 an hour.
So gas is already 3 times more expensive to me than if I worked in the USA. From the point of view of wages.
If you look at it logically which I am sure (SAR) will do for us "later," then I earn about 33% of the USA wages and I pay about 300 % more for gas.
So in reality, which I have posted on this blog many times before. "Gas is about 9 times more expensive to me from an earning point of view and physical cost in the UK compared to the USA!"
LOL. You've already looked at it pretty logically. People in the UK are not just penalized for gas. Prices for almost everything there is higher, even discounting the VAT. Part of that is returned by the much lower costs for healthcare and a much broader range of social services. Still, no matter how you look at it, the UK is a tough place when it comes to prices compared to wages.
Quoting 379. Climate175:

The GFS has been flip flopping back and forth between a coastal storm and inland runner for a few runs now, I would suspect the inland runner solution wouldn't be that reasonable due to the pattern changing to be more favorable for cold and a coastal storm. The Euro and it's ensembles have also been agreeing for a coastal storm too.


Based on what I see on the ensembles and the 500mb wavelengths, a southern tracking system physically makes more sense with respect to the region of maximum height falls in the base of the trough. The models still need to work out the details of the the system before that one that tracks up into the Great Lakes. They all have different progression speeds which will affect the air mass and the track of the potential low pressure system in the Gulf Of Mexico. Ideally, you want an ECWMF 00z solution: a progressive GL low and then Miller A cyclone the drive up the coast and hopefully the 850mb trough axis has tilted negative enough for it to be snow.
12z GFS is back to a coastal solution, the exact pinpoint of track is still gonna have to be settled over the next few days, but the 00z Euro and it's ensembles had it a little bit more west.
Barbamz - I hate that slipping feeling when you are driving or should I say trying to drive. Been there done that... And slipping while walking isn't much more fun either. And of all things to be delayed... an ambulance

Dr Masters

Can we get you to weigh in on this?

Link
Quoting 394. Dakster:

Barbamz - I hate that slipping feeling when you are driving or should I say trying to drive. Been there done that... And slipping while walking isn't much more fun either. And of all things to be delayed... an ambulance

Sure, Dakster. Because of that I'm glad that we in the southwest are on the warm side in Germany (many elderly people here are glad, too). --- Many years ago during a winter vacation in the Alpes I once drove a quite large van (withouth four wheel drive) I wasn't used to, with some family in it. Lots of fresh snow on the road, and I enjoyed speeding through winterwonderland. Suddenly, when approaching an underpass of concrete and braking, back tires lost the grip on the ground, a heavy lurching started and the concrete came nearer and nearer ... Boy, just before the crash I somehow managed to get control back and stopped the car. Was trembling for hours afterwards ...
Quoting 381. sar2401:

At least according to Wiki, the average high in January is 8.6F in January, so the average high is not in the teens. It's only 12 degrees in December. Longyearbyen sits on the edge of the Atlantic Current, which brings relatively warm water up into the Arctic. The record high in January is 45.6 due to the current. One of the reasons why coal mining there was a profitable venture is it has the furthest north port that is generally ice free from about May to October, allowing the ocean transport of the coal longer than what would normally be possible that far north. I don't know that Longyearbyen weather is really representative of what's happening in the Arctic in general. BTW, the place was founded by an American, John Longyear. I'm just guessing, and Gro would know for sure, but Longyearbyen may be Norweigan for Longyear Town.


It was exactly. Except en by normally means city. Last year a did an entire blog on Svalbard. Interesting place. I have never been there in winter but went twice in summer, but temperatures like this in winter are rare indeed. The island is in near darkness for the winter with a mere twilight. It is quite beautiful and full of a wide variety of animals.



(They speak a funny form of Norwegian though) :)
Barbamz - Glad you didn't crash... Even if you needed a wardrobe change afterwards. Had a few of those myself and even with a 4WD and in 4WD... I found out, 4WD helps you get going, doesn't always help you stop though.

Interesting facts Gro. My wife really, really likes Norway. She wants to go. I figured she would want to go to Sweden first, since she is only a 3rd Generation American with roots back to Sweden.
Many news outlets have written of this past week's amazing and unprecedented "warm" spell across the Arctic, and how historically astounding it is. Scientist after scientist has gone on record to express, via superlatives, the amazement they feel over what is going on at the top of the world. Above-freezing temperatures at the North Pole in late December? Never happened before. Daily record after daily high temperature record broken at the (admittedly) limited number of ground-based weather stations in the Arctic? Notable, and then some. Both Arctic sea ice area and extent tied for lowest ever for the date? Obviously highly unusual. But come here and mention a single high temperature record--a word, it should be noted, meaning "hasn't happened before"--and out of the woodwork pour the armchair experts proclaiming it of no particular interest or importance. I guess they're right; after all, what do actual, credible, practicing Arctic and climate scientists know that anyone with a WU handle and access to Google doesn't? ;-)
Quoting 395. TheQuestionMan:


Dr Masters

Can we get you to weigh in on this?

Link
I'll "weigh in" on it for you.

Short answer: it's garbage.

Longer answer: far from being an objective journalistic source with ties to science and scientists, the DailyWire is a Breitbart-related radical right rag headed by one of Breitbart's proteges. One should therefore read anything published at Dailywire with a very skeptical eye.

That's Strike One, and it's a very significant strike.

As for the opinion piece itself, I'd just note that it's a typical Gish-Gallop of nonsense thrown together in a failed attempt to build a case. Van Biezen is a professor, though he demonstrates an almost comical lack of knowledge about how actual science is done--perhaps intentionally, given his audience. Among his gems: the all-time global high was set 90 years ago, so the world isn't warming; satellites are wrong; scientists are deceitful liars out for a buck; the planet's been warm before; temps are up because of city streets (even at the North Pole, apparently); despite many decades of evidence to the contrary, CO2 isn't a greenhouse gas; and so on, and so forth, for hundreds of sentences, every single lame and breathless contrarian "point" very familiar to anyone who's bothered reading about the subject of climate change.

I don't pretend to speak for Dr. Masters, but my guess is he's too busy researching actual, credible science to waste time and energy reading or discussing debunked and discredited ideological/editorial pieces.
Quoting 395. TheQuestionMan:


Dr Masters

Can we get you to weigh in on this?

Link


I don't think Dr. Masters will or would comment on this type of foil hat wearing trash, but I will.

My first clue was reading the word global with quotation marks. The very next sentence describes finding things "disguised so they would be overlooked". So the conspiracy is discovered, please......

Reading on I found a bunch of wild claims with absolutely zero references, some of these are pretty pathetic.

This one is my favorite:
"3. Current temperatures are always compared to the temperatures of the 1980s"

What? Anomalies are generally derived from thirty-year baselines, not one decade. Any literate person who has done even a little research into climate science can tell this guy has no clue.
"Always" What?


Quoting 398. Dakster:

Barbamz - Glad you didn't crash... Even if you needed a wardrobe change afterwards. Had a few of those myself and even with a 4WD and in 4WD... I found out, 4WD helps you get going, doesn't always help you stop though.

Interesting facts Gro. My wife really, really likes Norway. She wants to go. I figured she would want to go to Sweden first, since she is only a 3rd Generation American with roots back to Sweden.


Both countries are surprisingly beautiful. Mrs. G is Swedish. You should go if you ever get the chance. Just hope you can put up with all the hot weather there :)
I can deal with the heat for short periods of time, however, my short period of time has ended down here. I am in so much pain right now I need a break from the heat. So a trip for up to a few weeks is doable...

It's getting warmer in Anchorage to the point I may have to relocate to the North Slope. Oh wait, it's above freezing there too.
Quoting 397. Grothar:


... Svalbard. Interesting place. I have never been there in winter but went twice in summer, but temperatures like this in winter are rare indeed. The island is in near darkness for the winter with a mere twilight. It is quite beautiful and full of a wide variety of animals.


Svalbard in winter.

Russian documentary (in English) Spitsbergen: The Long Dark Night (RT Documentary) About life in the Russian mining community of Barentsburg on Svalbard.

Life in Svalbard - Leben in Spitzbergen EPISODE 1 Longyearbyen (sequel of short episodes).

BTW, wiki got an own article "Climate of Svalbard": Because of its history of human occupation, Svalbard has one of the longest high-latitude meteorological records on earth. Computer models of global climate have long predicted enhanced greenhouse warming at such latitudes, so the Svalbard record is of particular interest. It shows approximately 6 C (10.8 F) increase in 100 years; with 4 C (7.2 F) increase in the last 30 years.



"Svalbard is the northernmost settlement in the world with a permanent civilian population." From the main article about Svalbard.
Barbamz - I heard GRO's first time was in the back of a Fjord...
#392:
It's fun to watch this on the monitor but pretty scary to be involved.
Years ago Tloml and I came out from a bar in Amsterdam around midnight to find our rental 'MacBike's stippled with ice. So were the sidewalks and streets.
With the two wheels on the bicycles and our feet down we were able to make our way back to the hotel safely but some folks simply stepped out on the sidewalk and slid to the curb - one lady in fancy dress and high-heeled sneakers simply got down on 'all-fours'' and squealed as she slid.
Quoting 405. Dakster:

Barbamz - I heard GRO's first time was in the back of a Fjord...

Gro's life in the origin of time is full of mysteries, Dakster. :-)
Quoting 388. BayFog:


Both oceans now have well developed jet streams at mid latitudes.

From Barb earlier:-
Hey Plaza, is the drought in the Iberian peninsula about to end? I see a build up of a river of tropical moisture heading to your place (or a bit north of you to Portugal):

We have got driving mists and fog with high winds at the moment but little of what could loosely be termed rain. Maybe less than a quarter of an inch in the last 24 hours.
The north is getting quite a bit of rain but they usually do and it rains most days on the north coast of Spain, maybe as much or more than 250 days a year depending on the year of course.

Cool at about 1/C but not going to get much colder, a lot of wind for us and a bit more driving mists.
Quoting 408. PlazaRed:


We have got driving mists and fog with high winds at the moment but little of what could loosely be termed rain. Maybe less than a quarter of an inch in the last 24 hours. ...

At least the Mediterranean is reopened for rain business now. So don't loose hope, Plaza. GFS 12z spots real rain for you in southwestern Spain on Tuesday and Saturday. May it come true!





I'm out. Have a nice evening/afternoon, folks.
Quoting 363. Neapolitan:

Longyearben, Svalbard--a town in an archipelago deep above the Arctic Circle about midway between the northern tip of Norway and the North Pole, a town that's been in absolute darkness for weeks now, and generally sees early January highs in the mid-teens and lows in the single digits--is again in the mid-40s. In fact, Svalbard (located at 78.2N) is currently warmer than Brownsville, Texas (25.9N), which sits at the extreme southern tip of the state.
well so much for the seed bank if the warmth don't melt it out the ocean rise will drown it one way or another it will be done
Quoting 370. wartsttocs:

What the heck is this?!?!?!?!?





nothing too see here
Quoting 411. Tazmanian:

if it happens those on the snow side will not be seeing anything till snow stops anyway
hurricane force blizzard
that would be a little wild for some

Two low centers headed into California: the occlusion is headed toward Monterey Bay; another with a secondary front will power into the SoCal Bight on the jet. Storm in the Gulf of Alaska with a front extending west of Hawaii and with a tap into moisture out of the ITCZ will spin off a stronger storm into California Monday night and into Tuesday, with two more systems for the rest of the week.
Stink'in storm decides to come MId-month and not during winter break! If its going to be like this it might as well not snow at all this winter
The temps around the south and west coasts of Alaska are looking unseasonably warm for at least the next 2 days, plus inland temps are also very warm.

Link

Plus the Arctic ice growth seems to have got the brakes put onto it and the thin blue line is sliding into the uncharted areas to the right of its terminal.

Quoting 415. washingtonian115:

Stink'in storm decides to come MId-month and not during winter break! If its going to be like this it might as well not snow at all this winter
well wash odds are high that we will see several storms then in march a repeat of the 97 super duper storm maybe

we could have winter this year till end of april or close to it

sorry wash
Today is my last day in the Tampa Bay area before I head back north to school. I'm glad we're getting some cool air here so I'm not shocked as I head back into highs in the low to mid 50's and lows near freezing to mid 30's.
Weather can be very odd though. This is the 3rd or 4th time over past few months that we were expected to get a good rain event, where the heaviest rains were expected in this area, only for the exact opposite to happen, more rain to the north and south where less rain was expected, and little rain here where more was expected.

I don't really understand what can cause these types of repetitive outcomes in inaccuracy to occur with model guidance with multiple events over the course of a couple months or so. A similar repetitive situation happened here in the summer, but with opposite outcome. During the very wet summer where widespread heavy rains and flooding were common with monthly totals of 10-20 inches there were several events where areas to the north expected the heaviest rainfall, only for this area to repeatedly get the most with multiple events over the course of several weeks.

If it weren't for such a wet summer, we would be in a notable drought by now. Rainfall was below 1 inch here each month for 3 straight months from October through December, with December being the driest at only 0.88 for the month, with only 2 days having measurable rainfall.

Despite all that though, the year to date ended up being 76.41, thanks to the deluge of rain during the rainy season where 48.83 fell from just June to August!
Quoting 420. Jedkins01:

Today is my last day in the Tampa Bay area before I head back north to school. I'm glad we're getting some cool air here so I'm not shocked as I head back into highs in the low to mid 50's and lows near freezing to mid 30's.
Weather can be very odd though. This is the 3rd or 4th time over past few months that we were expected to get a good rain event, where the heaviest rains were expected in this area, only for the exact opposite to happen, more rain to the north and south where less rain was expected, and little rain here where more was expected.

I don't really understand what can cause these types of repetitive outcomes in inaccuracy to occur with model guidance with multiple events over the course of a couple months or so. A similar repetitive situation happened here in the summer, but with opposite outcome. During the very wet summer where widespread heavy rains and flooding were common with monthly totals of 10-20 inches there were several events where areas to the north expected the heaviest rainfall, only for this area to repeatedly get the most with multiple events over the course of several weeks.

If it weren't for such a wet summer, we would be in a notable drought by now. Rainfall was below 1 inch here each month for 3 straight months from October through December, with December being the driest at only 0.88 for the month, with only 2 days having measurable rainfall.

Despite all that though, the year to date ended up being 76.41, thanks to the deluge of rain during the rainy season where 48.83 fell from just June to August!


Not raining enough to help the flora but drizzling enough to make it difficult to give the dogs a decent dry walk.
Quoting 415. washingtonian115:

Stink'in storm decides to come MId-month and not during winter break! If its going to be like this it might as well not snow at all this winter


Poor baby, I can empathize with missing snow though. I frequently vacation over the holidays in Ohio, like I did this year, and am always disappointed that it doesnt snow until later in the year. Might have to change it up and go up late January/early February and see if I can catch some then. Would love to sit in front of the fireplace with a good book and a good glass of wine or cup of tea.

I'm pretending here ...it's 58F and I have a fire going and reading a book and alternating reading the blog. I have three cats sitting in front of the fireplace enjoying it - txjac - making homemade spinach enchiladas with mushrooms, garlic and black olives
BRITISH COLUMBIA'S CAPITOL - NEW RECORD HOTTEST YEAR: 2015 is the record hottest calendar year in Victoria BC Canada, where records go back to 1898.

Link
Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
December 2015 AMO index down to -1.4 standard deviations, the lowest December value since 1993.
coldest air on this 3rd day of 2016 is making a brief plunge over the eastern side of north America


Quoting 425. Gearsts:

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
December 2015 AMO index down to -1.4 standard deviations, the lowest December value since 1993.


This may lead to a near-normal / slightly below normal hurricane season in 2016... but hopefully the rain will make a come back nonetheless.
Quoting 413. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hurricane force blizzard
that would be a little wild for some


Snowmeggedon 2?
Eric Blake
%u200F@EricBlake12
Wow December easily had the warmest waters on record in the Gulf of Mexico & western Atlantic by over 0.5C!

If the fronts don't come down and cool the gulf off before hurricane season someone is not going to be to happy along the coast if the conditions set up right.
el nino is breaking apart

Gro, how is the surf?

Link

Quoting 397. Grothar:



It was exactly. Except en by normally means city. Last year a did an entire blog on Svalbard. Interesting place. I have never been there in winter but went twice in summer, but temperatures like this in winter are rare indeed. The island is in near darkness for the winter with a mere twilight. It is quite beautiful and full of a wide variety of animals.



(They speak a funny form of Norwegian though) :)
Quoting 429. washingtonian115:

Eric Blake
‏@EricBlake12
Wow December easily had the warmest waters on record in the Gulf of Mexico & western Atlantic by over 0.5C!

If the fronts don't come down and cool the gulf off before hurricane season someone is not going to be to happy along the coast if the conditions set up right.
-AMO
Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 4h4 hours ago
Lots of psbl energy for eastern winter storms w/incredibly warm wrn Atlantic Dec. waters- creams old record by 1.5C!

Yeah we'll just see about that......
Quoting 420. Jedkins01:

Today is my last day in the Tampa Bay area before I head back north to school. I'm glad we're getting some cool air here so I'm not shocked as I head back into highs in the low to mid 50's and lows near freezing to mid 30's.
Weather can be very odd though. This is the 3rd or 4th time over past few months that we were expected to get a good rain event, where the heaviest rains were expected in this area, only for the exact opposite to happen, more rain to the north and south where less rain was expected, and little rain here where more was expected.

I don't really understand what can cause these types of repetitive outcomes in inaccuracy to occur with model guidance with multiple events over the course of a couple months or so. A similar repetitive situation happened here in the summer, but with opposite outcome. During the very wet summer where widespread heavy rains and flooding were common with monthly totals of 10-20 inches there were several events where areas to the north expected the heaviest rainfall, only for this area to repeatedly get the most with multiple events over the course of several weeks.

If it weren't for such a wet summer, we would be in a notable drought by now. Rainfall was below 1 inch here each month for 3 straight months from October through December, with December being the driest at only 0.88 for the month, with only 2 days having measurable rainfall.

Despite all that though, the year to date ended up being 76.41, thanks to the deluge of rain during the rainy season where 48.83 fell from just June to August!


Yep, another total bust for Tampa. My streets barely got wet.
Quoting 432. Gearsts:

-AMO


Happy New Year all

90 degrees here yesterday and pretty much the same today. Feels like August !. Probably a record high.

Can't believe the TCHP levels in the NW Caribbean for January compared to 2015. Not one cold front so far.

2016



2015

Quoting 429. washingtonian115:

Eric Blake
%u200F@EricBlake12
Wow December easily had the warmest waters on record in the Gulf of Mexico & western Atlantic by over 0.5C!

If the fronts don't come down and cool the gulf off before hurricane season someone is not going to be to happy along the coast if the conditions set up right.


Over the Winter break, there were a lot of people surfing the pier at Cocoa Beach. Most of the surfers were bare backing (no wet suits, vests, etc) it.
Usually, almost everyone is wearing at least a vest or a Spring suit wet suit this time of year.

I would guess for today (considerably cooler air temperature) most people pulled their vests or Spring suits out of storage.
Just checked. Previous record high for January was 89F !!.

Yesterday was 90 at my home.
Quoting 436. Sfloridacat5:



Over the Winter break, there were a lot of people surfing the pier at Cocoa Beach. Most of the surfers were bare backing (no wet suits, vests, etc) it.
Usually, almost everyone is wearing at least a vest or a Spring suit wet suit this time of year.

I would guess for today (considerably cooler air temperature) most people pulled their vests or Spring suits out of storage.


Middle of December I was in Indiatlantic and it was the same way. Of course it was HOT HOT HOT out...
Quoting 420. Jedkins01:

Today is my last day in the Tampa Bay area before I head back north to school. I'm glad we're getting some cool air here so I'm not shocked as I head back into highs in the low to mid 50's and lows near freezing to mid 30's.
Weather can be very odd though. This is the 3rd or 4th time over past few months that we were expected to get a good rain event, where the heaviest rains were expected in this area, only for the exact opposite to happen, more rain to the north and south where less rain was expected, and little rain here where more was expected.

I don't really understand what can cause these types of repetitive outcomes in inaccuracy to occur with model guidance with multiple events over the course of a couple months or so. A similar repetitive situation happened here in the summer, but with opposite outcome. During the very wet summer where widespread heavy rains and flooding were common with monthly totals of 10-20 inches there were several events where areas to the north expected the heaviest rainfall, only for this area to repeatedly get the most with multiple events over the course of several weeks.

If it weren't for such a wet summer, we would be in a notable drought by now. Rainfall was below 1 inch here each month for 3 straight months from October through December, with December being the driest at only 0.88 for the month, with only 2 days having measurable rainfall.

Despite all that though, the year to date ended up being 76.41, thanks to the deluge of rain during the rainy season where 48.83 fell from just June to August!

We are definitely going to end up with measurable rain here in Orlando, 0.1-0.2" most likely, which is not what I expected. Enough to water garden areas in the open, but not under heavy canopy. Really heavy rains fo areas both south and north, but it goes around us or falls apart before reaching here. This was typical in 2015.
Quoting 438. Gearsts:


Hory Shet!!!
Quoting 437. kmanislander:

Just checked. Previous record high for January was 89F !!.

Yesterday was 90 at my home.


hope ya had a happy Christmas and a merry new year good to see a winter drop by from ya
Forecast Toronto, ON

Issued: 3:30 PM EST Sunday 3 January 2016

Tonight Partly cloudy. 40 percent chance of flurries this evening. Wind northwest 30 km/h gusting to 50. Low minus 15. Wind chill minus 25 overnight.

Mon, 4 Jan Mainly sunny. Wind north 30 km/h becoming light in the morning. High minus 11. Wind chill minus 25 in the morning.
Night A few clouds. Low minus 16.

Quoting 398. Dakster:
Barbamz - Glad you didn't crash... Even if you needed a wardrobe change afterwards. Had a few of those myself and even with a 4WD and in 4WD... I found out, 4WD helps you get going, doesn't always help you stop though.

Interesting facts Gro. My wife really, really likes Norway. She wants to go. I figured she would want to go to Sweden first, since she is only a 3rd Generation American with roots back to Sweden.


Speaking of crashing...

My computer almost crashed today. I spilled some juice on the keyboard, and the screen went white. i powered it off, and it's just fine now, but the screen was white when i booted it last. Think something might have gotten into the motherboard.
Quoting 444. 62901IL:



Speaking of crashing...

My computer almost crashed today. I spilled some juice on the keyboard, and the screen went white. i powered it off, and it's just fine now, but the screen was white when i booted it last. Think something might have gotten into the motherboard.
LAPTOP OR DESKTOP COMPUTER
Local forecast office has changed the outlook for next weekend here in the SF Bay Area. Instead of a break in the action after this week's parade of storms, now they're saying another system will come in. More systems the following week.
Quoting 441. 62901IL:



Hory Shet!!!

If it verifies, looks like a bomb, and a decent noreaster/
Okay, now there is this:

Quoting 436. Sfloridacat5:



Over the Winter break, there were a lot of people surfing the pier at Cocoa Beach. Most of the surfers were bare backing (no wet suits, vests, etc) it.
Usually, almost everyone is wearing at least a vest or a Spring suit wet suit this time of year.

I would guess for today (considerably cooler air temperature) most people pulled their vests or Spring suits out of storage.

Assuming the ongoing record El Nino calms down by then.
Quoting 434. Bucsboltsfan:



Yep, another total bust for Tampa. My streets barely got wet.


Well I've actually had 0.16 so far here and I'm in east Pinellas so you might want to check your gauge if you have one. It's not much, but better than it was looking earlier. Not sure what was causing the rain hole, but it looks like rainfall is filling back in nicely to our west where it completely cleared earlier. It should allow for a steady period of rain for tonight.

Looks like we'll probably end up getting 0.25-0.35 or so before everything clears. It's not a big deal by any means, but better than it was looking earlier, where it seemed we might get no more than 0.05.

Also at least we have some cool weather, and plus, long term guidance and large scale pattern changes favor increasing rain events and cooling events in the future. Looks like this next weekend could result in decent rainfall potential followed by substantial cooling thereafter. Even further extended guidance shows already another potent southern stream system and more cooling. Things are heading in a better direction overall.
Quoting 445. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LAPTOP OR DESKTOP COMPUTER


Laptop.
Quoting 451. 62901IL:



Laptop.
not good yeah you could have shorted something out maybe hold it upside down open and shake it out use a hair dryer to dry it up as well but it may already be too late I guess u did not power down as soon as the spill happened either did you
Quoting 448. wartsttocs:

Okay, now there is this:




cold surge across eastern lower lakes under way temps will drop too 0f to +5f colder further north from lakes

I see the train a comin, it's comin around the bend
As to when I'll again see sunshine, I don't know when

Quoting 442. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



hope ya had a happy Christmas and a merry new year good to see a winter drop by from ya


I sure did. Waiting patiently for June 1st. Could be very interesting down the road.


Alexander County, IL Record Flooding Crest - 1/2/2016
StormChasingVideo
Published on Jan 2, 2016

The Mississippi River at Thebes crested early Saturday morning at a record-setting 47.74 feet, nearly 2-feet over the previous record flood stage. A levee break downstream released some of the water, thus preventing the crest from reaching the earlier forecasted levels. Still, the damage had been done across portions of Alexander County, IL where water inundated homes and communities.
Quoting 460. kmanislander:



I sure did. Waiting patiently for June 1st. Could be very interesting down the road.
tchp wise will be
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
latest was dec 31 have to wait till tomorrow
for the year 2016 to be entered
holidays are over first normal day of 2016
coming up as everyone gets back to their thing