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Earth's 7th Warmest November Puts 2014 on Pace to be Warmest Year on Record: NOAA

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:47 PM GMT on December 15, 2014

November 2014 was the seventh warmest November on record, and the year-to-date-period January - November was Earth's warmest such period since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Monday. NASA rated November 2014 as the 8th warmest November on record. November ended a 3-month streak with record warm monthly temperatures—August, September, and October 2014 were all the warmest such months on record. Global ocean temperatures during November 2014 were the warmest on record. This marks the seventh month in a row (beginning in May 2014) that the global ocean temperature broke its monthly temperature record. Global land temperatures in November 2014 were the 13th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in November 2014 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 8th or 2nd warmest in the 36-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for November 2014, the 7th warmest November for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Australia, Austria, Italy, and Switzerland all set records for their warmest November on record. The coolest temperatures over land were recorded in the Eastern U.S. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .


Figure 2. Global temperatures in 2014 compared to the previous five warmest years on record, dating back to 1880. After a relatively cool start, 2014 is now on pace the break the warmest year record set in 2010, according to NOAA. The years 2013 and 2014 are the only years on this list not to begin during a mature El Niño event. The years 1998 and 2010, each of which became the warmest year on record at the time, ended the year in a strong La Niña event, as evidenced by the relative fading of global average temperature later in the year. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

No billion-dollar weather disasters in November 2014
No billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the Earth during November 2014, according to the November 2014 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. This is the first month since January 2012 without a billion-dollar weather disaster. The global number of billion-dollar weather disasters for the first eleven months of 2014 is 24. This is well behind the record-setting pace of 2013, which had 39 billion-dollar weather disasters by the end of November, and ended up with a record 41 by the end of the year.



No official El Niño, but unusual warmth in Eastern Pacific
Remarkably, the record-warm global sea surface temperatures over the past seven months have occurred in the absence of El Niño, a large-scale warming of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean that historically has been present whenever record global ocean temperatures have occurred. November 2014 officially featured neutral El Niño conditions in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but sea surface temperatures rose to 0.5°C above average in mid-October in the so-called Niño 3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for an El Niño event to be declared. The warmth in the Niño 3.4 region has continued into mid-December, standing at 0.9°C above average this week. Most models predict El Niño will be in place this winter and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 65% chance of an El Niño event this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event.

Arctic sea ice falls to 9th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November 2014 was the 9th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was slightly above November 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NEWS FLASH
In case this has not been posted. As of December 16, 2014, the SPC made changes in the Day 4-8 convective outlook, including a day-by-day animated gif.
The animated gif below is SPC example. Please click on it for a full explanation of the changes.


Have good Dec 17, peoples of the wu.

The light returns Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 5:03 PM CST.
ice loss Monthly changes in the total mass (in Gigatonnes) of the Greenland ice
.
Quoting 497. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

we don't get those exotic names in the atlantic
Except for da 70,s...dont forget dem...Exotic was da norm Keep...Exotics like Fifi , Babe , Felice , Chloe , Delia , Gertrude , Blanche , Halle , Dottie , Emmy , Clara , Dorothy , Frieda , Evelyn , Amelia , Bess , Hope , Greta Irma , Juliet , Kendra and Grety... I feel exotic jus typin um..
Quoting 501. Barefootontherocks:

NEWS FLASH
In case this has not been posted. As of December 16, 2014, the SPC made changes in the Day 4-8 convective outlook, including a day-by-day animated gif.
The animated gif below is SPC example. Please click on it for a full explanation of the changes.


Have good Dec 17, peoples of the wu.

The light returns Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 5:03 PM CST.
OMG...we are going to have severe red and yellow blotches...i kid...i kid...
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Does anyone know any good sat image archives of tropical cyclones, especially WPac typhoons? I've been using mostly the NRL page and Digital Typhoon, but the former has a limited dataset the further back you go, and the latter's images are fairly small and zoomed out. I'm looking mostly for Dvorak IR images but also some others like WV and microwave images too.


Here you go!


The Boulder Glacier retreated 450 m (1,480 ft) from 1987 to 2003.
Quoting 499. cynyc2:

So you trust in the scientific evidence on climate change. So what do YOU propose to do, kill all the beavers? Since beaver populations are down to 20% or so of their preindustrial levels, I think your putting the blame in the wrong place....


It's actually the reduction of pirates that is the problem.
See link below:
Link
Quoting 502. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ice loss Monthly changes in the total mass (in Gigatonnes) of the Greenland ice
.
I know , but thats fake ice loss....its make believe..just ask Oz...:)
Quoting 465. weathermanwannabe:

Humans have been around Earth for a few million years and short of a "cosmic" total disaster (sun supernova, black hole, catastrophic large meteorite), they will continue on for another few. In what form, climate conditions or actual numbers, is unknown and the realm of speculation and science fiction.


Wow, such a misunderstanding of species specific interactions with their ecosystems. Unfortunately, humans may not "continue on" for a few million years. While human ancestors emerged from primate roots 5 million years ago, modern humans have been around only about 100,000 years and industrial activities only a few hundred years. To do what we have done to our environment in the last 200 years just may seal our doom. I hope for a solution, but I sometimes feel like we have been forced onto a train. I will not live to see it reach the station but my grandchildren may. I grieve for them.
Central Plains Through Thursday AM

A system will work its way across the Southern Plains and bring Gulf moisture northward into cold air across Kansas and Missouri tonight.

Snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible. The system moves east quickly Thursday and the threat for wintry weather will end. However, places like Kansas City could see enough snow later tonight to make a messy commute for the morning rush hour Thursday.




warm day in new york city 52F!!
Quoting 500. Barefootontherocks:

Caveat within the article posted earlier entitled "Europe's Record Heat Directly Tied to Climate Change":

"By comparing climate model simulations representing the world as it is with simulations of a world without humans, we show that the risk of warm years like 2014 occurring has very likely increased by at least 35-fold," said Andrew King, a climate scientist from the University of Melbourne who conducted the analysis. "This means that human-induced climate change has very likely played a significant role in 2014 being a record hot year for Europe." Link to the Climate Central caveat.

Words and meanings. And I am here to point out that "likelihood" does not establish causality. We do not have CAUSALITY, Houston. Over and out




Right, because its a logistic regression model, an odds-ratio. We know that the independent variable increases the odds of a certain outcome and that the variable (and model) are statistically significant.

So while not a causal test, they are certainly connected and previous research has not provided another predictive variable that increases odds that much. So while you want causality from a non causal test, having something at the 99% confidence level will just have to do. But yes, there is that less than 1% chance the correlative relationship between variables is a total fluke, just total random chance.
Quoting 471. Naga5000:



The Earth had been in a slight cooling since the Holocene Optimum, actually. Then we kinda messed everything up.


This is true...and the more I post true on here , the more I am ridiculed by some..I may stop posting on the matter , because I am sick of it.

CoCoRahs showed .30, KRAL .41. the PWS north of me showed nothing(weird). STD=4.69", MTD=3.46"
Quoting 514. hydrus:

This is true...and the more I post true on here , the more I am ridiculed by some..I may stop posting on the matter , because I am sick of it.


Wasn't trying to ridicule, sorry if I came off that way.
Quoting 501. Barefootontherocks:

NEWS FLASH
In case this has not been posted. As of December 16, 2014, the SPC made changes in the Day 4-8 convective outlook, including a day-by-day animated gif.
The animated gif below is SPC example. Please click on it for a full explanation of the changes.


Have good Dec 17, peoples of the wu.

The light returns Sunday, December 21, 2014 at 5:03 PM CST.


I was wondering what that was.
The latest Euro has a very big storm on the way...will it pan out.?

Quoting 517. Naga5000:



Wasn't trying to ridicule, sorry if I came off that way.
It wasnt you..Naga.
Quoting hurricanes2018:



warm day in new york city 52F!!


It's up there just waiting for its chance to invade the U.S.

-42 in Greenland
-54 in Siberia

That's seriously cold. Models are showing a stretch of cold weather beginning just after Christmas for a large part of the U.S.
I'd be happy if everything just stayed the same (with a nice rain once a week a night).

Quoting 479. landocanes:

the earth may warm a little and it may cool a little in the next hundred years but that won't amount to a hill of beans. There are going to be extreme weather events unrelated to the "climate change" that some are hell bent on gathering data to support. Nothing has really changed and it wont change much any time soon.
[snip]

You have not been paying attention to the science of climate or meteorology for at least the last several decades.
Quoting 514. hydrus:

This is true...and the more I post true on here , the more I am ridiculed by some..I may stop posting on the matter , because I am sick of it.

If you and Naga are actually in agreement, then it may be best to just consider his post a clarification of your post rather than get defensive and consider it an attack.
Quoting 522. ScottLincoln:


You have not been paying attention to the science of climate or meteorology for at least the last several decades.

If you and Naga are actually in agreement, then it may be best to just consider his post a clarification of your post rather than get defensive and consider it an attack.
Maybe , just maybe , you should read post 520
Quoting 519. hydrus:

The latest Euro has a very big storm on the way...will it pan out.?


Another useless rain storm great!.
What I find funny about this whole Global Warming debate is that there are 3 conclusions anyone with an opinion comes to on the subject. 1. They just think it's all man's fault. 2. They think man has contributed to Global Warming but aren't sure as to what extent and then 3. They don't think man has anything to do with it. Everyone seems to be in agreement that the Earth is indeed warming but exactly why is debated and the way I see it nobody is going to change anyone else's mind once it's made up so arguing about it in a blog setting is just a waste of time.
Quoting 524. washingtonian115:

Another useless rain storm great!.


I don't think the farmers think rainstorms are useless !!

or maybe talk to someone from California ..
Quoting 381. Patrap:

Why politicians don’t fight climate change: Walkom

In the end, voters don't care enough about global warming. That's why the Lima climate-change conference was a flop.


By: Thomas Walkom National Affairs, Published on Tue Dec 16 2014

Climate change is the issue that Canadians refuse to address.

We talk about it.

But in the end, too many of us are unwilling to do anything serious about the greenhouse gases that, according to a United Nations scientific panel, threaten to inexorably alter the planet.

Jean Chrétien’s Liberal government failed to meet the emission targets it had agreed to in 1997. Canadians didn’t care. They re-elected the Liberals twice more.

Stephen Harper’s Conservative government admits that it is not close to meeting the much- reduced emission targets it agreed to in 2009.
Yet in 2011, Canadians gave Harper a parliamentary majority.

Indeed, the only major party leader to run on a platform aimed specifically at combating climate change has been Stéphane Dion.
Canadians rewarded Dion by inflicting a humiliating defeat on his Liberals in the 2008 election.

When Harper famously said that no country in the world would risk short-term economic interests in order to curb greenhouse gases, he wasn’t simply justifying his own inaction.

He was also expressing a sad political reality.

All of which is to say that no one should be surprised by what happened, or to be more precise, by what didn’t happen at the recent United Nations climate-change conference in Lima, Peru.

Delegates from more than 190 nations gathered to hammer out a preliminary consensus in preparation for a sink or swim climate-change showdown slated for Paris next year.

A UN scientific panel says that to avoid climate-induced disaster, the world must limit carbon emissions to zero by the end of the century.
The Paris conference is supposed to show us the way there. Lima was supposed to be the set-up for Paris.
But Lima accomplished all too little.

Delegates agreed Sunday that all countries, including developing nations, bear some responsibility for fighting climate change. But they couldn’t agree, even in broad terms, how the cost should be divided.

Delegates agreed that all countries should submit plans for combating greenhouse gases. But there was no suggestion that nations would be required to live up to their own plans.

Nor, under the Lima pact, are countries required to explain exactly how they would reach their voluntary targets.
Most important was the lack of clear goals. Delegates couldn’t decide whether the Paris summit should focus on eliminating net greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century.

Nor could they decide on whether the summit should focus on encouraging the world to adapt to a new reality of extreme weather and submerged coastal cities.

According to news reports from the conference, no country emerged from Lima with glory. The Chinese were prickly, the Americans obdurate and Canada unjustifiably smug.

Canadian Environment Minister Leona Aglukkaq may have said more than she intended when she told delegates: “Our record speaks for itself.”
Still, it’s hard to blame the politicians when voters aren’t pushing. A recent poll done by the Environics Institute for Survey Research (and paid for, in part, by the David Suzuki Foundation) illustrates the problem.

The pollsters did find that 88 per cent of Canadians want the government to do more on climate change.
But do what exactly? A small majority of 56 per cent said they favoured some kind of carbon tax.

Yet when asked if the average household should pay $100 more a year to fight climate change, that slim majority evaporated. Instead, respondents were virtually split down the middle.

Do Canadians care that much about global warming anyway? Is it shaping up to be a ballot-box issue in the next election?
The poll found that only 50 per cent of Canadians are “extremely” or “definitely” concerned about climate change — down from 57 per cent in 2007.

In spite of all evidence to the contrary, two-thirds of those polled said the Harper government’s record on climate change is equal to or better than those of other countries.

If this is what Canadians think, is it any wonder that no major political party is crusading against global warming?

If this is what the world thinks, is it any wonder that scientists say we’re headed for catastrophe?

Thomas Walkom's column appears Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday.




So from the looks of this article not much was accomplished at the summit. More questions than answers. Looks like everyone wants to push forward their timelines and point fingers.
It's time we act on our own accord.

This movement needs people pounding the pavement. While I can't really change my need for the vehicle I use due to my business I can manipulate how my homes receive power and how the homes I build and remodel do as well.
I just met with the top Collier County electrical supervisor who is a good friend and we discussed the issues of regulation on installation of solar to homes and he says there are even MORE regulations that will make it even more of a pain in the A$$ in the near future.

WHY? MONEY!!

The only way through this is GRASS ROOTS efforts.
Go outside and decide where you will install your panels!
Call a liscensed electrician who installs solar panels and schedule an appt.

Make it happen! Once people see you doing it they will follow!! BE A LEADER! Before you know it your neighborhood will be an example!
Typing on this board to the same 500 or a couple 1000 people will not solve a thing no matter how eloquently you type.
Go to the city and county meetings in your area. Go to your homeowners association meetings. Make your voice heard.
My goal is to raise awareness on a local level but we need millions doing this.
DON'T WAIT ON OUR GOVERNMENT!! Or any other government for that matter.

STAND TALL!



Quoting 524. washingtonian115:

Another useless rain storm great!.
Not useless..Plants need water...Greetings Wash...:)
Quoting 526. whitewabit:



I don't think the farmers think rainstorms are useless !!

or maybe talk to someone from California ..
Plus 83...and a half...:)
Quoting 524. washingtonian115:

Another useless rain storm great!.


So I guess that means you would rather be in a drought like California?
Never thought I'd hear rain be called useless, life as we know it would become very difficult without rain! Sure we wish it would just occur once or twice a week at night but that's not how Mother Nature works, we have to take it when we can get it. Right now we're pretty dry here in NW Florida, hasn't been much rain since the Summer ended. Sure hope the forecast of good rains Friday and Saturday holds true, we need it!
Model consensus for a Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Superstorm for Christmas with the potential for blizzard conditions.
Quoting 69Viking:
What I find funny about this whole Global Warming debate is that there are 3 conclusions anyone with an opinion comes to on the subject. 1. They just think it's all man's fault. 2. They think man has contributed to Global Warming but aren't sure as to what extent and then 3. They don't think man has anything to do with it. Everyone seems to be in agreement that the Earth is indeed warming but exactly why is debated and the way I see it nobody is going to change anyone else's mind once it's made up so arguing about it in a blog setting is just a waste of time.
For the record, while some here in this forum certainly deny that human activity is the primary reason for the observed warming, the overwhelming majority of actual climate scientists--that is, people who have been educated in the field, and have devoted their lives to studying it and writing about it--have settled on the very high side of your option #2. Which is to say, climate experts are convinced at this point that it's our profligate, unimpeded burning of fossil fuels that's driving temperatures up. There's simply no other viable explanation...
Quoting 508. hydrus:

I know , but thats fake ice loss....its make believe..just ask Oz...:)

I would be inclined to venture a guess that some, or in fact a lot of that ice loss could or "should," be related to increased solar heat-melt on the surface, brought about by "soot" accumulation.
Its not just the CO2 which Is causing the problems, its the other CO2 manufacturing products from the burning machine as well.
Great ice losses in the past could have been partially caused by massive global vegetation burning and its by products.
Quoting 532. Drakoen:

Model consensus for a Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Superstorm for Christmas with the potential for blizzard conditions.
Yep ... seems to be trending toward that. Been watching that for days now.
Quoting 530. luvtogolf:



So I guess that means you would rather be in a drought like California?
Quoting 528. hydrus:

Not useless..Plants need water...Greetings Wash...:)
Quoting 526. whitewabit:



I don't think the farmers think rainstorms are useless !!

or maybe talk to someone from California ..
Yes this rain will be useless as the creeks and river is already running a little high.The ground is very soggy and mushy.
Quoting 532. Drakoen:

Model consensus for a Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Superstorm for Christmas with the potential for blizzard conditions.
bring it on nothing like shoveling snow for Christmas makes the turkey taste all the better
Quoting 532. Drakoen:

Model consensus for a Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley Superstorm for Christmas with the potential for blizzard conditions.

958mb on the 12z GFS is 6 standard deviations below average. Has to be near record territory.

the report is now out here is a clearer image of previous post



copy of report here

Link

Happy Hannukkah'
542. Inyo
Quoting 530. luvtogolf:



So I guess that means you would rather be in a drought like California?


All depends on where you are. I love rain but rain in northern New England in late December does no one any good. It either melts snow if there is any, or else it just soaks into the ground and freezes and makes for horrible mud when it melts later. I can safely say rain in northern new England in winter is the worst sort of rain I've ever come across, aside from things like damaging floods. I'm from southern California, and any rain there is good, pretty much. Even the flooding kind is preferable to droughts in many cases. Not happy that some of the models are showing a big downpour of warm rain on all our snow around Xmas eve. Of course they are just models and they may be all wrong but... a big blizzard over the Great Lakes without more cold air to work with than we have means a warm damaging flooding rain in Vermont, most likely.
Yeah this was us (Bedford, NS) a week ago when we had 131mm of rain fall. Now they are calling for more rain today. This will be our rainiest December I'm sure if the models come true. The ground is saturated and the rivers and lakes are full.

Quoting 538. TropicalAnalystwx13:


958mb on the 12z GFS is 6 standard deviations below average. Has to be near record territory.




958 mb from 1978 Great Lakes blizzard was the record in United States until 2010 Upper Midwest blizzard (that one was 953 mb in Minnesota). The lowest 1978 storm went was 953 mb in Ontario.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_19 78
Sunspot activity now has reached levels that were present in the 1800's....I wonder if that has to do with anything?
another..

I guess so Pat but you know what..oh look you edited your post..never mind..

Im just thinking 97% of WU don't have any humor and rather sit in a basement and talk doom and gloom..nothing like looking forward to the end of the world..almost just like Fox News..

Merry Christmas anyway..or Happy voodoo..whichever works..
548. Inyo
Quoting 546. Dragod66:

another..




Yikes!
By the way Pat..Jaws comes on IFC tonight at 6 and 9..

Don't say I wasn't ever nice to you..

Merry Christmas..
Precipitation map for the past 17 days (December).

Very dry here in S.W. Florida with .01" this month (Fort Myers). Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain next week as forecast.
Quoting 550. Sfloridacat5:

Precipitation map for the past 17 days (December).

Very dry here in S.W. Florida with .01" this month (Fort Myers). Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain next week as forecast.



It's those durn Californians, Stole all your water.....
Quoting 539. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

the report is now out here is a clearer image of previous post



copy of report here

Link

Oh Dear!
Looks like the beach is about to become available only to sunbathers in divers suits?
Never mind; think of all those seaside human homes which will become a habitat to confused coastal marine life.

Needless to say, humans will adapt and certain genetic strains may rapidly develop webbed feet.



The Arctic keeps warming. And polar bears are feeling the heat.

Washington Post
By Darryl Fears December 17 at 2:42 PM

Air temperatures at the top of the world continue to rise twice as fast as temperatures in lower latitudes, causing significant ice melt on land and sea, and affecting populations of polar bear and migrations of fish, a federal report released Wednesday said.

As a result of the Arctic temperature rise, an effect of global warming, Alaska recorded temperatures nearly 20 degrees higher than the January average as warm air flowed north, according to an Arctic Report Card issued by the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration.

In April, the amount of snow in Eurasia -- the land mass that comprises Asia and Europe -- hit its lowest level since satellite observations began in 1979, and the June snow in North America was the third lowest on record, said Jacqueline A. Richter-Menge, a senior research engineer for NOAA’s Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory.

“Snow disappeared three to four weeks earlier than normal in western Russia, Scandinavia, the Canadian sub-Arctic and western Alaska due to below average accumulation in winter and above normal spring temperature,” said Richter-Menge, a co-editor of the report card, which was first published in 2006 and updated each year since.

Sixty-three scientists from 13 nations served as co-authors of the report. They produced 10 essays on the Arctic’s air temperature, sea and ocean temperature, snow cover, Greenland ice sheet and vegetation, among other topics. A special essay this year focused on the effect of warming on polar bears.

The report was peer reviewed by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program of the Arctic Council and released in San Francisco at an annual gathering of the American Geophysical Union.

This year’s findings underscored an observation made by University of Virginia environmental professor Howard Epstein last year: “The Arctic is not like Vegas. What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.”

“Arctic warming is setting off changes that affect people and the environment in this fragile region,” said Craig McLean, the acting assistant administrator for NOAA research, “and has broader effects beyond the Arctic on global security, trade and climate.”

Geoff York, senior director of conservation at Polar Bears International, wrote about the effect on the region’s largest predator.

York wrote that their population declined from about 1,200 to 800 in the western Hudson Bay area of Canada between 1987 and 2011, largely because the sea ice breaks up earlier and freezes later, and has a short season overall. Bears depend on sea ice to travel, mate and hunt.

But there is slightly good news for the bears. In the southern Beaufort Sea, the numbers of adult bears have stabilized at about 900 after a 40 percent decline from their population in 2001. In another part of the Arctic, the Chukchi Sea, bears are rebounding from a “significant harvest in the mid-1990s,” York said. Sea ice is declining in the area, but not as rapidly as other areas.

Quoting 554. PedleyCA:



It's those durn Californians, Stole all your water.....
that's ok steal all ya want and need
This could prove to be fairly accurate this year (the storm next week will be the deciding factor).
the 12Z Euro has the core of the storm over West Virginia

Quoting 544. Bluestorm5:



958 mb from 1978 Great Lakes blizzard was the record in United States until 2010 Upper Midwest blizzard (that one was 953 mb in Minnesota). The lowest 1978 storm went was 953 mb in Ontario.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blizzard_of_19 78
10th coldest ever November for Ohio, glad someone was warm.
I am just now hearing about the Meteorologist who was shot in the parking lot of his station in Texas this morning. People are crazy
Quoting 562. Doppler22:

I am just now hearing about the Meteorologist who was shot in the parking lot of his station in Texas this morning. People are crazy
When did this happen.?
GFS is forecasting brutal cold just after Christmas. Looks like it starts out as a Blue Norther pushing down into the Southern Plains (deep into S. Texas) and then shifts towards the East Coast.

The kids can start looking for their ice skates and hockey sticks.

Almost all of Canada will be below zero. Lows down around 11 degrees in Washington DC.

Quoting 563. hydrus:

When did this happen.?

This morning as he was leaving work.

Link
Waco weatherman shot outside TV station

Google, for the discernible blogger'

: )
Quoting 528. hydrus:

Not useless..Plants need water...Greetings Wash...:)


They also need air. However many species that won't tolerate summer sogginess will tolerate
winter sogginess when respiration is very low because of the cold. I won't complain unless it causes serious flooding. Otherwise it's good for hydrologic recharge.

Winter 2001-2002 is the only one I remember that did not get soggy here in the mid atlantic. No mud in the garden at all even in early March and drought was a problem all spring and summer although timely just barely enough rains kept it from being as bad as 1999 and (esp.) 2007. Winter 1976-77 was very dry but I don't remember if it was continuously "unsoggy" because I was away at college. Some trees wilted in late spring in Central VA and gravediggers reported hard dry soil four feet down that year.
So in signing out for tonight.
What more can I add?
Its 13/C in London forecast. Well they need something to cheer them up, miserable lot.

We are 2.5/C above normal for Spain this year if I interpreted it correctly.
Moscow tomorrow is yet again above freezing!
We had 21/C in Malaga today and I was there to confirm it!

Massive anticyclone coming over us for the next week with plenty of sun and nothing else.

I cant comment on the New World but we look like having a pleasant warm week up to Christmas.
Needless to say, its the calm before the storm, for sure!

Nighty night from a half moonlit kitchen in southern Andaluca, Spain.

PS. Just look on the temp anomalies page in the main blog area.
The sea temps in the bay of Alaska and all over the Greenland's southerly coasts, Norway etc. are way above normal.
Then again we can always adapt to new "normal's?" So normal of the past becomes an anomaly and an anomaly of the future.
Simple now, I go it; at least, I think I did.
Maybe tomorrow things will be clear, if the fogs of uncertainty melt in the morning sun.
Quoting 550. Sfloridacat5:

Precipitation map for the past 17 days (December).

Very dry here in S.W. Florida with .01" this month (Fort Myers). Hopefully we'll get some much needed rain next week as forecast.



Looking like some rain for Fl for Mon/Tues. Hopefully you guys will get some beneficial rains down there.
Quoting 564. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is forecasting brutal cold just after Christmas. Looks like it starts out as a Blue Norther pushing down into the Southern Plains (deep into S. Texas) and then shifts towards the East Coast.

The kids can start looking for their ice skates and hockey sticks.

Almost all of Canada will be below zero. Lows down around 11 degrees in Washington DC.


the doom of cold air
Quoting drlinhardt:
10th coldest ever November for Ohio, glad someone was warm.
Not just someone, but several billion someones:

hot, hot, hot

New York governor says he'll ban fracking in his state

Citing concerns over health risks, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo's administration announced Wednesday (Dec. 17) that it would ban fracking in the state, the New York Times reported. State officials concluded that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, could contaminate the air and water and endanger the public's heath, the story said.

The decision came as environmentalists called for a ban on fracking, a method in which large volumes of water containing chemical's and sand are pumped at high pressure into a well. The pressure cracks the shale deep beneath the earth, allowing oil and gas to be released for extraction.

The fracking issue has been one of the most divisive public policy debates in New York in years, pitting environmentalists against those who see it as an economic stimulus, according to the story.

See the full New York Times report here.
The polar bears are fine.
The overall pattern doesn't favor a GLC. But more of a Appellation/coastal transfer like the storm over at Japan! Besides, El Nino's don't favor Great Lakes Cutters!
At their 2013 meeting, scientists reported that of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears:
•4 are declining
•5 are stable
•1 is increasing
•9 have insufficient data

Here's a Link to articles that differ from your statement !!
A trough axis just east of Hawaii does Not bode well for a west coast trough to kick the Christmas trough negative tilt prematurely. If the models are still showing a Michican bomb by 12z Sunday, then I'll be sure to serve some crow with my xmas ham!
Quoting 578. whitewabit:

At their 2013 meeting, scientists reported that of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears:
•4 are declining
•5 are stable
•1 is increasing
•9 have insufficient data

Here's a Link to articles that differ from your statement !!
Whose statement? Where, when, what, how?
For a Mod that's surprisingly bad form.
Dewpoints are in the 40's in Ft. Myers. Yet according to the 2M, they are in the 60's. Is it really that much more humid 2 meters above the surface?

The water vapor image shows a lot about what is coming our way...

Quoting 561. drlinhardt:

10th coldest ever November for Ohio, glad someone was warm.
Yep, about 6 billion people were warmer than they normally have been at this time of year -- maybe they should all move to Ohio to cool off?
Quoting 577. weatherbro:

The overall pattern doesn't favor a GLC. But more of a Appellation/coastal transfer like the storm over at Japan! Besides, El Nino's don't favor Great Lakes Cutters!
True , but this type of Nino wont stop them either..We are in for a long cold winter.
585. vis0

Quoting 458. Patrap:

how much humans are responsible for , or even if we actually started this phenomenon.

No, this is untrue as it comes, as "we" are responsible, as Science tell us, plus, not many Deer or Gophers digging up fossil fuels and burning them en masse Globally last I checked.

So its is us,,not "IF", in any sense.


The following doesn't mean we (humans) don't try to clean up our act but i think besides a comet or rock big enough to kill off the human species (as we know it) i see some type of flu or new combo of flu-cold wiping out ~70% of humanity in a span of 2-3 yrs. When? Due to some weird effect of global warming releasing frozen centuries old bacteria that maybe wiped out 70% if that periods "mammals" then Earth entered an mini or moderate ice age went frozen and comes out when the planet gets to warm...makes for a good movie if it hasn't been done already... The frozen blob bOO!
586. emguy
Quoting 577. weatherbro:

The overall pattern doesn't favor a GLC. But more of a Appellation/coastal transfer like the storm over at Japan! Besides, El Nino's don't favor Great Lakes Cutters!


We are currently not in an El Nino. Just above average Temps in the Pacific nino zone.
Quoting 580. bwtranch:

Whose statement? Where, when, what, how?
For a Mod that's surprisingly bad form.


I didn't see the need to quote since it was one comment number from my statement .. I suppose you didn't see it ??
Quoting 578. whitewabit:

At their 2013 meeting, scientists reported that of the 19 subpopulations of polar bears:
•4 are declining
•5 are stable
•1 is increasing
•9 have insufficient data

Here's a Link to articles that differ from your statement !!


There is also a new species "bear" that is being created potentially because of the warming. They are called Grolar Bears, because a Polar Bear and a Grizzly Bear are mating. They normally didn't do that before now. I can't say for certain that this is because of warming, but warming is being blamed for it. Whether that is good or bad I don't have an opinion on either, but seems like Darwin at work.
Quoting 588. Dakster:



There is also a new species "bear" that is being created potentially because of the warming. They are called Grolar Bears, because a Polar Bear and a Grizzly Bear are mating. They normally didn't do that before now. I can't say for certain that this is because of warming, but warming is being blamed for it. Whether that is good or bad I don't have an opinion on either, but seems like Darwin at work.


I had read a hunter shot what he thought was a brown Bear and it ended being a cross breeding between a polar bear and a brown bear .. Happened several yeas ago ..
Quoting 566. PedleyCA:


Texas television meteorologist Patrick Crawford shot in station parking lot, recovering


I didn't realize being a TV weather met was so dangerous until now. Dang... Hope for a speedy recovery for him.

BTW - Ped - Things are a melting here, hasn't been below freezing where I am in over a day.
Quoting 589. whitewabit:



I had read a hunter shot what he thought was a brown Bear and it ended being a cross breeding between a polar bear and a brown bear .. Happened several yeas ago ..


I believe that was the first sighting of a Grolar bear.
Quoting 591. Dakster:



I believe that was the first sighting of a Grolar bear.


they decided it was a male polar bear and a female brown because if it would have been the other way the cub would have drowned when the mother tried to swim to ice ..
A bitter cup....How about coffee? New study out saying the climate by 2050 could majorly disrupt the coffee supply. Models showed half the land we grow coffee on now would be unsuitable for large scale coffee production in less than 40 years. Robusta could partially replace Arabica near the equator but overall globally Robusta is modeled to suffer the most since it doesn't tolerate large temperature fluctuations well.. New areas could be clear cut at higher latitudes but clear cutting doesn't help with climate change.
Quoting 537. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
bring it on nothing like shoveling snow for Christmas makes the turkey taste all the better

You make the turkey shovel snow before roasting it?

Poor turkey.
Quoting 564. Sfloridacat5:

GFS is forecasting brutal cold just after Christmas. Looks like it starts out as a Blue Norther pushing down into the Southern Plains (deep into S. Texas) and then shifts towards the East Coast.

The kids can start looking for their ice skates and hockey sticks.

Almost all of Canada will be below zero. Lows down around 11 degrees in Washington DC.


To late to be useful now.
Quoting 591. Dakster:



I believe that was the first sighting of a Grolar bear.


Forbidden love...
Quoting 587. whitewabit:



I didn't see the need to quote since it was one comment number from my statement .. I suppose you didn't see it ??
No, I didn't know it related to 576, that one was just dangling out there also. Kinda like, "No, Santy Claus is fine, the reindeers are fine and the Mrs. has a touch of gout." :)
Quoting 593. Skyepony:

A bitter cup....How about coffee? New study out saying the climate by 2050 could majorly disrupt the coffee supply. Models showed half the land we grow coffee on now would be unsuitable for large scale coffee production in less than 40 years. Robusta could partially replace Arabica near the equator but overall globally Robusta is modeled to suffer the most since it doesn't tolerate large temperature fluctuations well.. New areas could be clear cut at higher latitudes but clear cutting doesn't help with climate change.


Glad I don't drink coffee. Sounds like the McDonald's price for a cup may approach the current starbucks level. And at Starbucks you will need to fill out a loan application before ordering.

-

Who knows Whitewabbit on which was which... The cub still got genes from both sides regardless. I saw a cinamon bear when driving around Central Alaska that I though could almost be a Grolar (or Pizzly - I like Grolar better) -but I researched it and realized they have Grizzly's that are fairly light in fur color.
Central Plains Through Thursday AM

A system will work its way across the Southern Plains and bring Gulf moisture northward into cold air across Kansas and Missouri tonight.

Snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible. The system moves east quickly Thursday and the threat for wintry weather will end. However, places like Kansas City could see enough snow later Wednesday night to make a messy commute for the morning rush hour Thursday.

This will likely be the first 1-inch or greater snowfall of the season for Kansas City, as well as Topeka, Kansas, and Columbia, Missouri.


more rain in the mid-west
I wonder what Gro thinks about the bear they named after him.
Quoting 589. whitewabit:



I had read a hunter shot what he thought was a brown Bear and it ended being a cross breeding between a polar bear and a brown bear .. Happened several yeas ago ..
I believe I read some years ago that grizzlies and polar bears may be two different races of the same species and thus able to produce "hybrid" offspring. I'm not sure their breeding raises any more danger signals than they do individually -- they're both pretty dangerous predators. It's when they make their way into human-settled regions like Toronto that the trouble starts.
Northern Maine Double-Digit Snowfall

Intensifying low pressure off the New England Coast will move northeast and push a lot of moisture into northern New England tonight. That low will also pull down enough cold air from eastern Canada to produce a bout of moderate to heavy snowfall for the region.
Quoting Dakster:


I saw a cinamon bear when driving around Central Alaska that I though could almost be a Grolar (or Pizzly - I like Grolar better) -but I researched it and realized they have Grizzly's that are fairly light in fur color.

We have cinnamon bears here in Northern California to, which are of course, "black" bears.
606. yoboi
Quoting 549. ncstorm:

By the way Pat..Jaws comes on IFC tonight at 6 and 9..

Don't say I wasn't ever nice to you..

Merry Christmas..




will watch.....again 75th time.....
Quoting 601. yoboi:





Dr. Roy Spencer and other Climate scientist have shown that humans cannot impact the climate by more than 10 %....

Strange that they have so far failed to convince the vast majority of their peers of this. Strange indeed. Must be something in the air.
Cool with lots of high clouds that the sun shone through. 39/66
Good evening. Quite a photo from the Mediterranean/Adriatic Sea/Montenegro this morning!


Severe Weather RU, INCREDIBLE! WOW !!! 6 waterspouts and funnel cloud near 2-3 Budva (Montenegro) this morning! Source: burenka_ua (Instagram)

Reposted from SevereWeatherEurope.

Probably the same event on youtube:



Well, this year seems to have been an outstanding year of waterspouts in the (warm) Mediterranean, even if you consider the growing opportunities of (social) media coverage.
And here a more elaborate update on the severe weather event in Japan which isn't over yet (see first post #450). Guess "weather bomb" is a term we should get used to from now on, lol, describing a "rapid developer".

'Weather bomb' pummels Japan
BBC weather video, 17 December 2014 Last updated at 16:59 Help
Hundreds of flights were cancelled and schools and businesses closed after a storm brought two metres of snow to Japan.
One flight had to make an emergency landing at Tokyo airport after hitting severe turbulence created by the jet stream, while a storm surge forced people from their homes.
BBC Weather's Helen Willetts reports for BBC World.
Quoting yoboi



Quoting 590. Dakster:



I didn't realize being a TV weather met was so dangerous until now. Dang... Hope for a speedy recovery for him.

BTW - Ped - Things are a melting here, hasn't been below freezing where I am in over a day.

Sorry to hear that you aren't freezing your A$$ off anymore. Hard to keep snow when the temp goes above 0C
Quoting 613. BaltimoreBrian:




Seems mo like 50% easily......

Good night after this short hopping in. This busy time of the year there is not much time available for watching weather - at least for me. Weather fans in Germany are bustling though, looking out for real winter weather which probably won't happen at Christmas eve though --- afterwards models are split, some promising at least a bit colder weather, others - the latest runs - tell us to prepare for a very early spring (lol!) with up to 20C (68F) for the last days of 2014. If this pans out this would really crown a very above average year! That said some of my flowers on my balcony are still happily blossoming as they did all last "winter". And other folks in Germany (living in the plains as I do) report the same ...
Quoting 596. PensacolaDoug:



Forbidden love...


That's when the male linx tries to mate with a porcupine...
Quoting 616. barbamz:

Good night after this short hopping in. This busy time of the year there is not much time available for watching weather - at least for me. Weather fans in Germany are bustling though, looking out for real winter weather which probably won't happen at Christmas eve though --- afterwards models are split, some promising at least a bit colder weather, others - the latest runs - tell us to prepare for a very early spring (lol!) with up to 20C (68F) for the last days of 2014. If this pans out this would really crown a very above average year! That said some of my flowers on my balcony are still happily blossoming as they did all last "winter". And other folks in Germany (living in the plains as I do) report the same ...


Sadly, and clearly, 2014 will be remembered as the year the CO2 induced climate forcings, reared their ugly head as the warming is now the Signal, with even El Nino becoming the noise within it.



Christmas lights are viewed on homes on December 17, 2014, in the Brooklyn borough of New York City..
Greater Portland Metro Area Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 2:35 PM PST on December 17, 2014
...Potential for flooding Saturday night through Monday for northwest Oregon and southwest Washington rivers...

A storm system developing over the Pacific is expected to bring heavy rain to the Pacific northwest Saturday evening through Sunday. As of now...it looks like the heaviest rain will be in the north Oregon Coast Range and the north Oregon and South Washington Cascades...but this forecast is uncertain. Meteorologists will be keeping a close eye on the development of this storm. This is a classic atmospheric river event that could produce some areas of very heavy rain.

Rainfall amounts are currently projected as 5 to 8 inches for the coast...Coast Range and Cascades...with 2 to 5 inches for valley locations. Snow levels will be high...well above pass level...for most of this event. If we get these amounts of rain or more... there will likely be flooding on area rivers and creeks Saturday night through Monday.

Stay up to date with the latest NWS forecasts at weather.Gov/Portland or Mobile.Weather.Gov.
Quoting 620. BaltimoreBrian:

A Squirrely Situation


Squirrel.... It's what's for dinner in the Arctic.

The downfall of humanity brought about by the Arctic ground squirrel. Nice article BB...
You win on the forbidden love front, BB.

We finally got back below freezing. 28F.
Quoting 624. Dakster:

We finally got back below freezing. 28F.


Good Deal there, high here was 61.7F, low was 52.6F, Winter is almost here.....lol

Quoting Dakster:


"Forbidden Love" -- That's when the male linx tries to mate with a porcupine...
Hmm, and here I thought that was foolish love. :)
Quoting 625. PedleyCA:



Good Deal there, high here was 61.7F, low was 52.6F, Winter is almost here.....lol



Sorry Folks, Winter's cancelled.

it's pathetic, beyond words what humans have done to this earth. I would say the coming weather destruction is deserved, yet I think of the little smiling babies I see in supermarkets and elsewhere - their pure innocence. There is no question here, at all, none, that the Republicans of America carry the most direct responsibility for the future climate change. They live in denial for money, for greed. I wanted you to know this now, because you will be dead by the time it tortures your great grandchildren. But they will know, because there are many more people like me to come, and expose your denial of human impact on earth and resulting weather. You will be recalled, but don't expect flowers on your grave every Birthday. In fact, don't even expect your Birthday to be remembered.
Quoting 526. whitewabit:



I don't think the farmers think rainstorms are useless !!

or maybe talk to someone from California ..



but by the Grace of God... and that fact that every once in awhile it rains, that we are here at all.. or so i heard...
Quoting 588. Dakster:



There is also a new species "bear" that is being created potentially because of the warming. They are called Grolar Bears, because a Polar Bear and a Grizzly Bear are mating. They normally didn't do that before now. I can't say for certain that this is because of warming, but warming is being blamed for it. Whether that is good or bad I don't have an opinion on either, but seems like Darwin at work.


Blondes have more fun...
Once a photograph of the Earth, taken from outside, is available, a new
idea as powerful as any other in history will be let loose.
-- Fred Hoyle






Quoting 629. indianrivguy:




but by the Grace of God... and that fact that every once in awhile it rains, that we are here at all.. or so i heard...

Blondes have more fun...


Back in the day I had quite a bit of fun with a couple of redheads...

22F and falling... ahhhh... finally, the intense heat here is gone.
December 17, 2014
RELEASE 14-043
NASA Satellites Measure Increase of Sun’s Energy Absorbed in the Arctic


NASA satellite instruments have observed a marked increase in solar radiation absorbed in the Arctic since the year 2000 – a trend that aligns with the steady decrease in Arctic sea ice during the same period.

While sea ice is mostly white and reflects the sun’s rays, ocean water is dark and absorbs the sun’s energy at a higher rate. A decline in the region’s albedo – its reflectivity, in effect – has been a key concern among scientists since the summer Arctic sea ice cover began shrinking in recent decades. As more of the sun’s energy is absorbed by the climate system, it enhances ongoing warming in the region, which is more pronounced than anywhere else on the planet.

Since the year 2000, the rate of absorbed solar radiation in the Arctic in June, July and August has increased by five percent, said Norman Loeb, of NASA’s Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. The measurement is made by NASA’s Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments, which fly on multiple satellites.

Arctic maps showing sea ice change (left) and absorbed solar radiation change (right)

The Arctic Ocean is absorbing more of the sun's energy in recent years as white, reflective sea ice melts and darker ocean waters are exposed. The increased darker surface area during the Arctic summer is responsible for a 5 percent increase in absorbed solar radiation since 2000.
Image Credit: NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio/Lori Perkins

Download related multimedia in HD formats from NASA Goddard's Scientific Visualization Studio

While a five percent increase may not seem like much, consider that the rate globally has remained essentially flat during that same time. No other region on Earth shows a trend of potential long-term change.

When averaged over the entire Arctic Ocean, the increase in the rate of absorbed solar radiation is about 10 Watts per square meter. This is equivalent to an extra 10-watt light bulb shining continuously over every 10.76 square feet of Arctic Ocean for the entire summer.

Regionally, the increase is even greater, Loeb said. Areas such as the Beaufort Sea, which has experienced the some of the most pronounced decreases in sea-ice coverage, show a 50 watts per square meter increase in the rate of absorbed solar radiation.

Earth Right Now. Your planet is changing. We're on it.


Five new NASA Earth science missions are launching in 2014 to expand our understanding of Earth’s changing climate and environment.
NASA's "Earth Right Now" website

“Advances in our understanding of Arctic climate change and the underlying processes that influence it will depend critically upon high quality observations like these from CERES,” Loeb said.

As a region, the Arctic is showing more dramatic signs of climate change than any other spot on the planet. These include a warming of air temperatures at a rate two to three times greater than the rest of the planet and the loss of September sea ice extent at a rate of 13 percent per decade.

While these CERES measurements could ultimately become another of those signs of dramatic climate change, right now scientists say they have obtained the bare minimum of a data record needed to discern what’s happening over the long term.
Getting data beyond 15 years will allow scientists to better assess if recent trend falls outside the realm of natural variability, said Jennifer Kay, an atmospheric scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research and Environmental Science at the University of Colorado.

“We need long time series to detect climate change signals over the internal variability. For example, observed sea ice loss over the last 30 years cannot be explained by natural variability alone.” Kay said. “Fifteen years is long, but climate is often defined as the average over 30 years – so we are only half-way there with the CERES observations.”

Kay and colleagues have also analyzed satellite observations of Arctic clouds during this same 15-year period. Kay’s research shows summer cloud amounts and vertical structure are not being affected by summer sea ice loss. While surprising, the observations show that the bright sea ice surface is not automatically replaced by bright clouds. Indeed, sea ice loss, not clouds, explain the increases in absorbed solar radiation measured by CERES.

Increasing absorbed solar radiation is causing multiple changes in the sea ice cover, said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland. Two of those changes include the timing of the beginning of the melt season each year and the loss of older, thicker sea ice.

The onset of the melt season in the high Arctic is now on average seven days earlier than it was in 1982, Meier said. Earlier melting can lead to increased solar radiation absorption. This is one step in a potential feedback cycle of warming leading to melting, melting leading to increased solar radiation absorption, and increased absorption leading to enhanced warming.

Since 2000, the Arctic has lost 1.4 million square kilometers (541,000 square miles) of older ice that is more than 3 meters thick, which during winter has essentially been replaced by ice that is less than 2 meters thick, according to data provided by Mark Tschudi at the University of Colorado. Once again, Meier said, this trend is a step in a feedback cycle.

“Having younger and thus thinner ice during winter makes the system more vulnerable to ice loss during the summer melt season,” Meier said.
CERES instruments are currently flying on the Terra, Aqua and Suomi-NPP satellites. The Terra satellite launched Dec. 18, 1999, and CERES first started collecting Arctic data in 2000 so 2015 will mark 15 continuous years of CERES measurements over the Arctic.

The instruments include three radiometers – one measuring solar radiation reflected by Earth (shortwave), one measuring thermal infrared radiation emitted by Earth (longwave), and one measuring all outgoing radiation, whether emitted or reflected.
For more information about NASA AGU presentations, visit:
www.nasa.gov/agu
Snow Is Down and Heat Is Up in the Arctic, Report Says
By KENNETH CHANGDEC. 17, 2014


NY Times

SAN FRANCISCO — The Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the globe, and with greater repercussions, scientists are reporting.

The new findings appear in the Arctic Report Card, first published in 2006 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and updated annually. The report card catalogs the wide-ranging changes caused by the rising temperatures, in large part driven by emissions of greenhouse gases.

Snow cover, measured since 1967, was below average and set a record low in April in the Eurasian region of the Arctic. Sea surface temperatures are rising, particularly in the Chukchi Sea, northwest of Alaska, where the waters are warming at a rate of almost one degree Fahrenheit per decade.

The extent of Arctic sea ice, which retreats in summer, did not hit a record low in 2014. But it was the sixth lowest since satellite measurements began in 1979, and the scientists noted that the eight smallest extents have occurred in the last eight years.

“We can’t expect records every year,” Martin Jeffries of the Office of Naval Research, who edited this year’s report, said at a news conference here at the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union. “It need not be spectacular for the Arctic to continue to be changing.”

With less sea ice and more open water, sunlight entered more of the ocean, leading to a bloom of tiny marine plants. On land, the greenness of the tundra continues to increase, the report said, indicating fewer snow-covered areas.

The decline in sea ice also diminished the number of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in Canada from 1987 to 2011, but populations appeared to be stable elsewhere. Polar bears rely on sea ice to travel and hunt.

In Greenland, scientists observed that melting occurred on almost 40 percent of the ice sheet during the summer, and in August, the ice sheet reflected less of the sunlight than at any time since the beginning of satellite observations in 2000. In a separate news conference, scientists reported that NASA satellite measurements have confirmed that a darker, less reflective Arctic absorbs more heat and accelerates melting.

The mass of the Greenland ice sheet, however, remained steady from 2013 to 2014, compared with major losses two years ago. The report card also noted the unusual jet-stream wind pattern last winter, often labeled the polar vortex, that led to frigid weather across much of the United States but balmy temperatures in Alaska.

Continue reading the main story
RELATED COVERAGE

Times Topic: Global Warming & Climate Change
The NASA reflectivity measurements found that since 2000, the amount of absorbed solar radiation in the Arctic during the summer months rose 5 percent. No significant change was seen for the rest of the planet. The Arctic areas with the greatest increases corresponded to the areas of declining sea ice. The change is equivalent to a 10-watt light bulb shining over every square meter, or 10.76 square feet, of the Arctic Ocean. In areas of greater warming, like the Beaufort Sea north of Alaska, the increase is 50 watts per square meter.

Many scientists expect the Arctic to become ice-free in summer by the end of the century, with some predicting that it could happen much sooner.

“I think the important point about the models is not to dwell on the fact that they differ, but it is to dwell on the similarities,” Dr. Jeffries said. “They all point in the same direction.” The decline of ice will continue to affect life in the Arctic. It will also open up shipping lanes and the possibility of oil drilling. “You don’t have to go to zero for these to become a big deal,” Dr. Jeffries said.

Year-to-year variability also remains large, so much so that it is not certain that the extent of sea ice will shrink in the near future.

“If someone asked me if sea ice is going to go up or down in a decade, I’d flip a coin,” said Jennifer Kay, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Colorado. But she also had no doubts about the long-term trend toward a warmer Arctic with less ice.

“If it’s 30 or 40 years out,” she said, “I have no need to flip a coin.”
Quoting 633. sar2401:

I bet you hype snow flurries into blizzards too...



I do!

:)
Quoting 633. sar2401:

I bet you hype snow flurries into blizzards too...



Mole hills into mountains?
Quoting 628. ohzone:
There is no question here, at all, none, that the Republicans of America carry the most direct responsibility for the future climate change. They live in denial for money, for greed. I wanted you to know this now, because you will be dead by the time it tortures your great grandchildren.


You can't select a political group and make it sound as if they are all that way. Sure people are like that but it's like that on both sides to a extent. I have conservative opinions mostly but not all. My parents are conservative and they have no money in oil since that appears what you are getting at about Republicans. On one side I have conservative grandparents and they have no money in oil. On the other I have a more liberal pair of grandparents that own stock/money in oil and they were enjoying it when that money was coming. So please don't single groups like me out.

We are all at fault for what is happening, we all use electricity, we all use cars so we are all responsible for this. The past generations got us in this obsession with oil and we can't get out of it until something that is cheaper comes along. Trust me when I say this, if there is a eco fuel that is 100% clean, it's cheaper then oil and is profitable. I guarantee all that money that you believe all the Republicans use for greed and denial will be put into that profitable eco fuel. That's just how business is we just don't have that solution for our vehicles and other uses of energy.

I know the effects of pollution from refinery's personally, several months ago I even talked about when I lived near the Galveston area with all those large refinery's like BP in Texas City it would give me asthma and I later move to SA then the Hill Country and I have no asthma whatsoever since leaving that area. I know oil isn't good for me so I know it's not good for the environment but as I already said previously... No solution for it yet.

I always see comments like this one posted except it's from a few very regular people here that post climate change articles all day long and sometimes the same exact thing. We just need to quit bickering about one another (all of us) and actually try to figure something out whether it is putting money into research for that cheaper eco fuel as I stated or something else because oil won't last forever and someone that is a conservative even knows this.
Quoting 638. SouthCentralTx:



You can't select a political group and make it sound as if they are all that way. Sure people are like that but it's like that on both sides to a extent. I have conservative opinions mostly but not all. My parents are conservative and they have no money in oil since that appears what you are getting at about Republicans. On one side I have conservative grandparents and they have no money in oil. On the other I have a more liberal pair of grandparents that own stock/money in oil and they were enjoying it when that money was coming. So please don't single groups like me out.

We are all at fault for what is happening, we all use electricity, we all use cars so we are all responsible for this. The past generations got us in this obsession with oil and we can't get out of it until something that is cheaper comes along. Trust me when I say this, if there is a eco fuel that is 100% clean, it's cheaper then oil and is profitable. I guarantee all that money that you believe all the Republicans use for greed and denial will be put into that profitable eco fuel. That's just how business is we just don't have that solution for our vehicles and other uses of energy.

I know the effects of pollution from refinery's personally, several months ago I even talked about when I lived near the Galveston area with all those large refinery's like BP in Texas City it would give me asthma and I later move to SA then the Hill Country and I have no asthma whatsoever since leaving that area. I know oil isn't good for me so I know it's not good for the environment but as I already said previously... No solution for it yet.

I always see comments like this one posted except it's from a few very regular people here that post climate change articles all day long and sometimes the same exact thing. We just need to quit bickering about one another (all of us) and actually try to figure something out whether it is putting money into research for that cheaper eco fuel as I stated or something else because oil won't last forever and someone that is a conservative even knows this.


You hit the nail right on the head!
Quoting 638. SouthCentralTx:



You can't select a political group and make it sound as if they are all that way. Sure people are like that but it's like that on both sides to a extent. I have conservative opinions mostly but not all. My parents are conservative and they have no money in oil since that appears what you are getting at about Republicans. On one side I have conservative grandparents and they have no money in oil. On the other I have a more liberal pair of grandparents that own stock/money in oil and they were enjoying it when that money was coming. So please don't single groups like me out.

We are all at fault for what is happening, we all use electricity, we all use cars so we are all responsible for this. The past generations got us in this obsession with oil and we can't get out of it until something that is cheaper comes along. Trust me when I say this, if there is a eco fuel that is 100% clean, it's cheaper then oil and is profitable. I guarantee all that money that you believe all the Republicans use for greed and denial will be put into that profitable eco fuel. That's just how business is we just don't have that solution for our vehicles and other uses of energy.

I know the effects of pollution from refinery's personally, several months ago I even talked about when I lived near the Galveston area with all those large refinery's like BP in Texas City it would give me asthma and I later move to SA then the Hill Country and I have no asthma whatsoever since leaving that area. I know oil isn't good for me so I know it's not good for the environment but as I already said previously... No solution for it yet.

I always see comments like this one posted except it's from a few very regular people here that post climate change articles all day long and sometimes the same exact thing. We just need to quit bickering about one another (all of us) and actually try to figure something out whether it is putting money into research for that cheaper eco fuel as I stated or something else because oil won't last forever and someone that is a conservative even knows this.


Amen to that part. I hate saying here is a problem without a solution. The problem with energy is that there is not one good "green" solution for every area of the planet. We should be looking at battery upgrades or a way to store potential energy so that if the wind is not blowing or the sun isn't shining we have power. Hydro is good, but there isn't always a good water source for it. Same goes with geothermal. I also see issues with the moving of energy - how much energy does it take to move a gallon of fuel from the refinery to the market place today?

Hydrogen poses some issues unless it can be generated everywhere. It's 1/7th as dense as gasoline at pressure. BUT if you could generate it locally awesome. I kinda got addicted to our electric car as I fuel it up every night by plugging it in. And this on has a gas generator in case I run out of electric power. SO every month or so I need to visit the gas station for a few gallons. Last 45 days we burned 5 gals. Now we just need clean power plants. The one by me runs on natural gas - but there are still a lot of coal plants out there.

I am not about to give up the modern conveniences of life in the USA. But I am smart enough to know that oil and coal are not forever. Plus, I like to live by the old addage of What if we created a better world for nothing?
Quoting 603. CaneFreeCR:

I believe I read some years ago that grizzlies and polar bears may be two different races of the same species and thus able to produce "hybrid" offspring. I'm not sure their breeding raises any more danger signals than they do individually -- they're both pretty dangerous predators. It's when they make their way into human-settled regions like Toronto that the trouble starts.

There is a book featuring the hybrid grizzly / polar bear: "Never Say Die" by Will Hobbs. It is a coming of age and wilderness adventure story that I got on my Nook as a free Friday offering.
Quoting 599. hurricanes2018:

Central Plains Through Thursday AM

A system will work its way across the Southern Plains and bring Gulf moisture northward into cold air across Kansas and Missouri tonight.

Snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible. The system moves east quickly Thursday and the threat for wintry weather will end. However, places like Kansas City could see enough snow later Wednesday night to make a messy commute for the morning rush hour Thursday.

This will likely be the first 1-inch or greater snowfall of the season for Kansas City, as well as Topeka, Kansas, and Columbia, Missouri.


I'm only going to see less than an inch. Good, I've already had enough with snow due to all the pre-thanksgiving snow.
Michelin and Petroleum Institute sign technical partnership for UAE’s first solar car race in the middle east, the Abu Dhabi Solar Challenge (ADSC). The race is about a month away.



Livingston Parish looks to be going to court over Gustav clean up.
Quoting 642. oxnardprof:


There is a book featuring the hybrid grizzly / polar bear: "Never Say Die" by Will Hobbs. It is a coming of age and wilderness adventure story that I got on my Nook as a free Friday offering.


Ah yes, the hybrid grizzly/polar bear, otherwise known as the Grolar bear (as stated in earlier posts).

Quoting 636. Astrometeor:



I do!

:)
Oh! I do! I do!
Quoting 641. Dakster:



Amen to that part. I hate saying here is a problem without a solution. The problem with energy is that there is not one good "green" solution for every area of the planet. We should be looking at battery upgrades or a way to store potential energy so that if the wind is not blowing or the sun isn't shining we have power. Hydro is good, but there isn't always a good water source for it. Same goes with geothermal. I also see issues with the moving of energy - how much energy does it take to move a gallon of fuel from the refinery to the market place today?

Hydrogen poses some issues unless it can be generated everywhere. It's 1/7th as dense as gasoline at pressure. BUT if you could generate it locally awesome. I kinda got addicted to our electric car as I fuel it up every night by plugging it in. And this on has a gas generator in case I run out of electric power. SO every month or so I need to visit the gas station for a few gallons. Last 45 days we burned 5 gals. Now we just need clean power plants. The one by me runs on natural gas - but there are still a lot of coal plants out there.

I am not about to give up the modern conveniences of life in the USA. But I am smart enough to know that oil and coal are not forever. Plus, I like to live by the old addage of What if we created a better world for nothing?



Totally agree, solar panels on houses and personal wind turbines would be great here but cost can be high. Lots of sun and southerly winds off the gulf during the summer and still gets very windy with the fronts during the winter. It can be very cloudy here during the winter so solar certainly isn't as effective during that time. I like the idea of nuclear energy, it's just Japan's event really turned me away from that once that happened.

I am sure a all electric car is very nice to have, minimal gas but as you said depending on the area determines what makes the electricity and according to Wikipedia, I know it's Wikipedia :) however it says SA's CPS energy is run on nuclear power (35%), coal (34%), natural gas (15%) and renewable energy (16%). You seem to of gotten lucky your power plant runs on a much cleaner source.
Quoting 641. Dakster:



Amen to that part. I hate saying here is a problem without a solution. The problem with energy is that there is not one good "green" solution for every area of the planet. We should be looking at battery upgrades or a way to store potential energy so that if the wind is not blowing or the sun isn't shining we have power. Hydro is good, but there isn't always a good water source for it. Same goes with geothermal. I also see issues with the moving of energy - how much energy does it take to move a gallon of fuel from the refinery to the market place today?

Hydrogen poses some issues unless it can be generated everywhere. It's 1/7th as dense as gasoline at pressure. BUT if you could generate it locally awesome. I kinda got addicted to our electric car as I fuel it up every night by plugging it in. And this on has a gas generator in case I run out of electric power. SO every month or so I need to visit the gas station for a few gallons. Last 45 days we burned 5 gals. Now we just need clean power plants. The one by me runs on natural gas - but there are still a lot of coal plants out there.

I am not about to give up the modern conveniences of life in the USA. But I am smart enough to know that oil and coal are not forever. Plus, I like to live by the old addage of What if we created a better world for nothing?

Hi Dakster. If you don't mind my asking, how much electricity in terms of kilowatt hours does it take to charge your car? Fully charged, how many miles will the car run without the use of gas? Does there always need to be gas available as auxiliary for the battery?
Quoting 648. Barefootontherocks:

Hi Dakster. If you don't mind my asking, how much electricity in terms of kilowatt hours does it take to charge your car? Fully charged, how many miles will the car run without the use of gas? Does there always need to be gas available as auxiliary for the battery?


It takes about 12 KWH to charge up the 10KW battery pack when totally depleted. You don't have to always have fuel in it the car, provided you are in a warm climate, but it makes sense to keep it full. The car pressurizes the fuel to keep it fresh and the car if you never use fuel will burn a little for two reasons, Fuel Management Mode and Engine Management Mode. We hit those once when we were in Miami.

In Miami which is darn near PERFECT for an electric car because of the temps we would get 47 miles per charge. Here in Alaska with the cold temps and studded tires we are getting around 23 miles per charge. When it gets below 15F the ICE will turn on for a little bit to generate heat for you. You can set it for 25F, but then we would be running the ICE a lot more up here. Heat is the killer, the AC takes 500 watts to 2KW to run. Heat is 6 - 8 KW. If you don't run the heat the windshield fogs up. Again, we don't hypermile it. A lot of people get WAY WAY better range than we do. (It's a 2013 Volt)

The 2015 Volt coming out will have a more efficient ICE in it, a bigger battery pack, and more efficient modes of operation on it too... When our lease is up in 2016, I hope they have a SUV out with the same platform as the wife likes sitting up higher and we would like AWD for driving up here. Not that the Volt doesn't out handle my 4WD truck in 4WD on the ice.

I;m happy to answer any questions you have. I may not hypermile the car, but I am a EREV enthusiast....
Addendum - The car only uses 10KWH of the pack or down to about 60% State of Charge. GM is VERY VERY conservative in what you can use out of the car's battery pack. Almost wish long term testing would show it was safe to go down to 20% so you could almost double the range.
Quoting 644. Skyepony:

Michelin and Petroleum Institute sign technical partnership for UAE’s first solar car race in the middle east, the Abu Dhabi Solar Challenge (ADSC). The race is about a month away.



Livingston Parish looks to be going to court over Gustav clean up.


Now the irony will be if it is raining that day.
never seen or heard of these before- ice panckaes reported on bbc news - found on a river in dundee
Some areas in C & N FL might double what is average for the month of December in FL with this event rom Sunday thru early Wednesday. The Euro has 4" totals near Tampa then lets up to 2" to 3" toward Cape Canaveral and the model also has 4" to 5" totals near Gainesville. Bottomline it looks wet a a deep plume of moisture currently in the Central Caribbean meets up with a stalled front across FL to create a set up very similar to what occurred before Thanksgiving.

May not look like much now but this area of 2" PWAT's is on a coarse for FL and combine that with a stalled front as the southern jet will be moving overhead then get ready as big rain totals seem likely now.

NBC used their scary black cloud for Tuesday.

7 day for Fort Myers
Quoting 655. Sfloridacat5:
NBC used their scary black cloud for Tuesday.

7 day for Fort Myers


If the Euro and GFS Parallel are correct the severe weather will likely be an issue across FL. Like I said yesterday mainly straightline winds but an isolated tornado or 2 can't be ruled out.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN AN INITIALLY
ZONAL...INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO THE TRANSITION TO A BLOCKIER REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS EVIDENT
IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES REMAINS LARGE...AND
THE IMPACTS ON THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN EVOLUTION ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY IS UNCLEAR.

ONE DEVELOPMENT IN WHICH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW IS
AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST
THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS PROBABLY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS...WHICH COULD OCCUR IN TWO STAGES...ONE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE OTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST...THEN UP
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHICH WILL BE MOST PROMINENT. IF IT IS THE LATTER...THERE
WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES AND SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC
COAST STATES LATE NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE.
BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR AT
THE PRESENT TIME.

GIVEN THE PREDICTABILITY ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND THE EXTENDED /DAY 6-7/ TIME FRAME...AMONG OTHER
UNCERTAINTIES...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES STILL SEEM TO REMAIN
BELOW THE MINIMUM 15% THRESHOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
Christmas Day: Locally heavy, wind-driven snow in the lake snowbelts from the U.P. of Michigan and northern Lower Michigan to northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, western, central and Upstate New York. Snow may spread out of the northern/central Rockies into the northern Plains. Mainly dry in the southern tier of states. maybe a white Christmas Day:



new york city 55F
Quoting 659. hurricanes2018:




new york city 55F
60 degrees and useless rain on Christmas eve.This is pathetic.


heavy rain in the northeast
good morning dudes! got about 1/4 inch of snow overnight.
Next week's front
664. MahFL
Quoting 641. Dakster:



... Now we just need clean power plants. The one by me runs on natural gas...



Natural Gas still produces carbon dioxide when you burn it. It's not clean, but "cleaner".
Folks here is the moisture plume in the Caribbean that's heading for FL on Sunday and is expected to merge with a frontal trough over FL.



Quoting 646. KoritheMan:


Oh! I do! I do!



Saturday for me... i will speak those words to Robin... WOOT!
667. MahFL
Quoting 641. Dakster:



What if we created a better world for nothing?



What do you mean by "better" ?
You just don't see these kind of totals in December in FL unless there is an El-Nino present.

Euro
Here's the GFS 16 day precip accum. Strong signature across the Gulf & FL for a continued wet pattern even after the event later this weekend and early next week.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
You just don't see these kind of totals in December in FL unless there is an El-Nino present.

Euro


Interesting. The rain is welcome if it comes.

Most models predict El Niño will be in place this winter and NOAA is continuing its El Niño Watch, giving a 65% chance of an El Niño event this winter. If an El Niño does emerge, it is likely to be a weak event.
NWSBayArea ✔ @NWSBayArea
San Jose has received 7.43" of rain this month, making it the second wettest December on record. #bayarearain #cawx
Comfy day here, at average for this time of year.

From the Miami NWS...

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.
How about it's starting look a lot like spring.
Quoting 675. washingtonian115:




Quoting 674. washingtonian115:

How about it's starting look a lot like spring.



Looking more and more like what one would expect for El-Nino and that is warmer than average temps across most of the Country while FL is cooler than average.
If this trend keeps up then next Winter could be even warmer across the US.


Quoting 668. StormTrackerScott:

You just don't see these kind of totals in December in FL unless there is an El-Nino present.

Euro



I'm not too happy with that map because it shows less than an inch for my area for the next 10 days (240 hours).

I've gone 21 days with no rain. The last time my rain gauge measured any precipitation was on November 26th. I sure hope we see some decent accumulations down here in S.W. Fl (where it's most needed).
We are currently in a High Fire Risk.
This past week's rains made a really nice dent in California's drought. While more than 3/4 of the state is still experiencing "Extreme" conditions, the percentage experiencing "Exceptional" drought--the most severe--dropped from over 55% last week to a bit over 32% this week:

Last week:
drought

This week:
drought

drought

It's obviously far too early to even hint or pretend that the drought is over, and it's still the worst in centuries. But at this point, a single drop of rain is good news. So: good news!

We'll take it...
Quoting 681. Neapolitan:

This past week's rains made a really nice dent in California's drought. While more than 3/4 of the state is still experiencing "Extreme" conditions, the percentage experiencing "Exceptional" drought--the most severe--dropped from over 55% last week to a bit over 32% this week:

Last week:
drought

This week:
drought

It's obviously far too early to even hint or pretend that the drought is over, and it's still the worst in centuries. But at this point, a single drop of rain is good news. So: good news!


I was watching the World News and the reporter was showing a creek or river flooding. They interviewed a person and they said "the last thing we need right now is more rain."
Definitely a disconnect between what people are seeing and saying vs. the drought map for certain areas of the state.

Some areas are just receiving too much rain too quickly.
Quoting 682. Sfloridacat5:



I was watching the World News and the reporter was showing a creek or river flooding. They interviewed a person and they said "the last thing we need right now is more rain."
Definitely a disconnect between what people are seeing and saying vs. the drought map for certain areas of the state.


Many areas have already had the wettest December EVER!

NCAR & UCAR Science @AtmosNews
MT @UCARSciEd: Extreme drought, record-breaking rain. Cause of crazy #CAwx? Blame #ElNino http://ow.ly/FHVHO pic.twitter.com/xBwXSRmXor


684. MahFL
Better get a Hurricane Hunter on this, especially as it's apparently coming to my house on Sunday.

Came across this awesome video of a waterspout over Lake O last year in May 2013.

http://stormvisuals.com/florida-weather/2013/5/2/ tornadic-waterspout-lake-okeechobee-florida-timela pse-video.html Link

Quoting MahFL:
Better get a Hurricane Hunter on this, especially as it's apparently coming to my house on Sunday.

Lol.
Quoting 685. jpsb:




Meanwhile back on planet Earth
winter appears to be in full swing
Winter is cancelled. ;)
Golden Gate Rainbow (San Francisco) Bay area back on December 4th.

Quoting jpsb:



Meanwhile back on planet Earth
Yeah, I saw just a bit ago that Arctic sea ice area is lower than it was on this same date last year. That's some strange recovery, isn't it?
Quoting 691. Neapolitan:

Yeah, I saw just a bit ago that Arctic sea ice area is lower than it was on this same date last year. That's some strange recovery, isn't it?




HOLY COW!
693. jpsb
Quoting 691. Neapolitan:

Yeah, I saw just a bit ago that Arctic sea ice area is lower than it was on this same date last year. That's some strange recovery, isn't it?

Its a monstah...

Arctic sea ice falls to 9th lowest November extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during November 2014 was the 9th lowest in the 36-year satellite record and was slightly above November 2013 levels, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Jeff Masters

Thursday, December 18, 2014
Rising tides turn yards to wetlands as climate change takes toll


By Heather Perlberg BLOOMBERG

Amanda Armstrong schedules her life around the tides. For the past year and a half, she's had to navigate rising waters that saturate the lawn of her red-brick house in Norfolk, Virginia, and sometimes fill a puddle out front with crabs and fish.

"We call it our little aquarium," Armstrong, 40, said from outside the home along the Lafayette River that she rents with her family, where wetlands plants have sprouted up from the frequent doses of salt water.

Climate change is beginning to take a toll on real estate in the coastal city, about 80 miles southeast of Richmond, as insurance costs soar and residents resort to putting their homes on stilts or opening up space underneath for the water to flow through. While most of the U.S. is in a housing rebound, prices in Norfolk fell 2.2 percent in October, according to the Virginia Beach-based Real Estate Information Network.

The city, which averages about a flood a month, is a harbinger of life in U.S. coastal communities. By 2045, within the lifetime of a 30-year mortgage, sea levels will rise about a foot along the Gulf of Mexico and the eastern shoreline, increasing tidal flooding in places including Atlantic City, New Jersey; Ocean City, Maryland; and Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, according to an October report by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

"Even with gradual sea-level rise, some elevations can undergo very fast change in vulnerability to flooding," said Ben Strauss, vice president for sea level and climate impact at research organization Climate Central. "What's happening in coastal Virginia is kind of a preview of what could happen much more widely."

Rising Costs

Higher sea levels combined with storm surge, in which high winds and low pressure carry sea water inland, will probably increase the average annual cost of coastal storms in the region by as much as $3.5 billion within the next 15 years, according to a June report from the Risky Business Project, an effort to highlight the economic costs of runaway climate change led by former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

With potential increases in the number of and intensity of hurricanes, the total annual price tag for coastal storms will increase to about $35 billion, the report showed.

Sandy Lingers

In the Northeast, the effects are still being felt from Hurricane Sandy two years ago.

Sandy brought hurricane-force winds and pushed floodwaters over barrier islands and into seaside communities, destroying or damaging 305,000 homes in New York and 346,000 in New Jersey. It led to mortgage delinquencies in Long Island, New York, waterfront communities such as Mastic Beach and Shirley, where many owners abandoned properties because they couldn't afford the repairs.

"Things are not that much better," said Ed Romaine, supervisor of neighboring town, Brookhaven, and its former commissioner of housing and community development. "Some people are getting some FEMA aid; some people have left their homes vacant."

Home prices in Mastic Beach, a 30-minute drive west of the Southampton mansions on Long Island's southern coast, have dropped more than 9 percent to $162,000 in October from the same month in 2011, before Sandy hit, according to Zillow Inc.

Raising Homes

Along the Virginia coast, flooding has become such a part of everyday life that residents are responding by raising their properties about 10 feet off the ground, towering over neighbors in treehouses atop gray cinder block beds. It costs from $80 to $100 a square foot, and takes about two to four months to lift a home and complete the construction underneath, according to Jim Matyiko, who co-runs the Southeast division of Expert House Movers.

The structural moving company elevates one or two homes each week in the Virginia coastal area, Matyiko said. About 80 percent are lifted with aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Poquoson, a Virginia bedroom community of about 4,055 houses, this year got approval for its second hazard-mitigation grant from FEMA to help lift about 20 homes in the area, according to Kenneth Somerset, the city's floodplain manager.

"We've had great success with citizens elevating their homes," Somerset said, adding that many residents have done so with private funding. "The ones down low are in the minority now."

Better Sales

Raised homes are more valuable and easier to sell, because flood insurance premiums are lower and buyers don't have to factor in future flood mitigation costs, according to Somerset.

Poquoson prices in October were up almost 9 percent from a year earlier, Real Estate Information Network data showed.

While it keeps the interiors dry, some houses cost more to raise than they are worth, said Skip Stiles, executive director of Wetlands Watch, a Virginia nonprofit environmental group.

In Norfolk, where there is little land to develop, the city wants homes raised anyway to protect its property tax base, he said, standing in the Larchmont neighborhood, where a masonry crew last month was building a new foundation underneath a small brick house with white shutters. Two days later, with the help of winds from a Nor'easter, the street flooded, preventing construction workers from getting to the home.

"It shows the folly of raising a house and forgetting about the street or future conditions," Stiles said. "This is what we'll be getting regularly by about 2070."

Trouble Selling

Most nearby houses lining Hampton Boulevard are still sitting at street level.

Many owners can't afford to lift their houses without federal aid, and the damage from flooding continues to increase. There are 900 Norfolk properties on the "repetitive loss" list, up from 200 in 2002, according to a November Wetlands Watch study. Some people try to rent their homes or walk away from them if they can't sell, Stiles said, pointing to one of several "for sale" signs in the neighborhood.

"They come up like mushrooms after the storms," he said.

Escalating flood-insurance costs in Norfolk and surrounding areas have been making it harder for residents to buy and sell homes, according to Scott Hunter, owner of Virginia Beach-based Comparity, which helps people shop for insurance plans.

"It definitely has impacted real estate," Hunter said. "It's a combination of longer selling times for homes in required zones with expensive policies and buyers that are in a situation where the deal can't go through because of the added flood expense."

Adding Vents

Michael Vernon, director of business development for Flood Mitigation Hampton Roads, has built a business around the encroaching waters, helping homeowners prevent flooding and lower insurance costs, which makes their properties are more attractive to buyers. One of his clients was struggling to sell a house in Virginia Beach that had been listed on the market for about 60 days. The flood-insurance premium cost $1,800 a year, he said.

The owner paid about $2,300 in August for Vernon's team to put vents in the house to allow for water to flow in and out of the crawl space beneath it. The work, which took half of a day, brought the annual insurance premium down to $400, according to Vernon, and the house sold five days later.

"Over the long haul, especially in severe flood zones, properties are going to have to be mitigated," he said. "Otherwise they'll be washed away or demolished. It's just a matter of time until the finances don't make sense."

The number of floods in Norfolk has tripled every year since the 1970s, according to the October report by Concerned Scientists, a Cambridge, Massachusetts-based advocacy group made up of economists, scientists and engineers.

Building Booms

Rising sea levels and more prevalent storms aren't stopping major development on condominium or apartment buildings in U.S. cities such as Manhattan, Miami, or San Francisco's Bay Area, where prices continue to rise and a wave of new projects are planned or being built.

More than 300 condominium towers are proposed or under construction in South Florida, according to CraneSpotters.com, which tracks development in the area. At least 20 of the buildings will be in Miami Beach, where flooding is becoming more common as sea levels rise, leading the city to spend $500 million on projects that address stormwater, including the installation of 58 pump stations in the next five years.

In September, contractors were spending $1 million a week on one area, putting up a new sea wall and adding large underground pipes, according to a statement from the city.

Builders are incorporating new design into projects so they contribute to flood-mitigation efforts, said Bob Bistry, an architect with Perkins and Will, the firm that designed plans for 500 Alton Road in Miami Beach.

Elevated Park

The proposed project, backed by luxury-condo developer Crescent Heights, would have an elevated park with pumps for rainwater to drain into a reservoir. The pool would be able to hold a significant amount of water, which would help prevent flooding and also act as green space, Bistry said.

In Manhattan, while developers continue to build in areas that experienced heavy flooding caused by Sandy, they are mindful of the storm's high-water mark, and make room for mechanical and electrical equipment on higher floors, at least 12 to 15 feet above sea level, said John Gilbert, chief operating officer of Rudin Management Co., whose 80 Pine St. and 110 Wall St. properties sustained damage from Sandy.

"It's really all about design and moving that stuff out of harm's way," Gilbert said. "You've always got to plan for worst and hope for best."

Armstrong and her boyfriend, Bart Kuebler, have adopted a similar mantra while living in Norfolk. They keep most of their valuable belongings on the second floor and rarely leave or return home before checking predictive tide tables. The two often park several blocks away to avoid getting stuck in the driveway when water from the river spills over the bulkhead and fills their street.

"The flooding affects our daily life, said Armstrong, who plans to move with her family next year because her landlord wants to list the property for sale. It's definitely here and it's happening more regularly."
697. bwi
Looking at the GFS air temp anomalies for the next seven days, looks like pretty normal to above normal for much of the continental US until Christmas. By days 6 and 7 cool surge moving down into the west and northern rockies/upper plains. Love the climate analyzer website makes this really easy to see -- just click on GFS 7 day and temp anomaly: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/
Not that I trust the GFS, but it has backed off the cold weather quite a bit for after Christmas. It had been showing for several days a major outbreak of cold air across the south including Florida. Now it just shows average (some above average) to slightly below average conditions for most of the time period for my area.
December 29th
Just a few more calculations to add to Dr. Masters' post.

Here is another plot from NOAA showing some different scenarios on how the 2014 global temperature estimate may pan out:

Even their coldest scenario - a 10th warmest December - still has the global temperature break a record this year. The fact that this is occurring in a non-El-Nino year is even more interesting (in recent decades, each warmest year on record is most often set during an El Nino year).

From NOAA's plot, it is clear that we have a pretty good chance of seeing a record warmest year, but what would it take to not have the warmest year on record?

The current record is a statistical tie between 2010 and 2005, an anomaly of 0.65C. Our current year-to-date global temperature from NOAA is about 0.68C, and December would need to be about 0.36C for us to not break the record. The last time we had a global temperature anomaly at least as cold in December in the NOAA dataset was in 2000 (0.31C).

This raises another question... how often does the global temperature anomaly drop this much (0.29C) from one month to the next?

In NOAA's monthly temperature anomaly dataset, there are 1619 months and thus 1618 month-to-month changes. About 48% (775) were a drop of about 0.01C or greater from one month to the next. Only about 1% (16) were a drop of 0.29C or more.

The chance of this year being a warmest year on record in the NOAA dataset is near certain.
Quoting 691. Neapolitan:

Yeah, I saw just a bit ago that Arctic sea ice area is lower than it was on this same date last year. That's some strange recovery, isn't it?

We all know that it just wouldn't be the same without jbsp's obligatory irrelevant screenshot or anecdote about sea ice with the insinuation that it disproves anthropogenic global warming.
ahhhhh....the new office is painted...furnished.......internet is up and on the phone to figure out why our land line is not working......the joys of dealing with time warner cable.........now onto the wonderful world of weather


when looking at models concerning el nino...i guess if you have one that meets the agenda you want to believe...by all means go ahead and use it.....even when people have detailed its long range inaccuracies...and shown how and why the experts have explained why it is not credible at this time...if you want to look at and understand what climate experts are looking at and using the models to help determine their conclusions the cpc and also the austrailian mets offer some excellent models.....below is the poama group of models utilized by the aussies


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 701. ricderr:

ahhhhh....the new office is painted...furnished.......internet is up and on the phone to figure out why our land line is not working......the joys of dealing with time warner cable.........now onto the wonderful world of weather


when looking at models concerning el nino...i guess if you have one that meets the agenda you want to believe...by all means go ahead and use it.....even when people have detailed its long range inaccuracies...and shown how and why the experts have explained why it is not credible at this time...if you want to look at and understand what climate experts are looking at and using the models to help determine their conclusions the cpc and also the austrailian mets offer some excellent models.....below is the poama group of models utilized by the aussies





You mean 2 the Euro as well do we need to discuss this again?

Nov was one of the coldest on record in the US. Somehow Dr Masters always cherry picks the facts to suit his junk science